An automated construction of error models for uncertainty quantification and model calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josset, L.; Lunati, I.

2015-12-01

To reduce the computational cost of stochastic predictions, it is common practice to rely on approximate flow solvers (or «proxy»), which provide an inexact, but computationally inexpensive response [1,2]. Error models can be constructed to correct the proxy response: based on a learning set of realizations for which both exact and proxy simulations are performed, a transformation is sought to map proxy into exact responses. Once the error model is constructed a prediction of the exact response is obtained at the cost of a proxy simulation for any new realization. Despite its effectiveness [2,3], the methodology relies on several user-defined parameters, which impact the accuracy of the predictions. To achieve a fully automated construction, we propose a novel methodology based on an iterative scheme: we first initialize the error model with a small training set of realizations; then, at each iteration, we add a new realization both to improve the model and to evaluate its performance. More specifically, at each iteration we use the responses predicted by the updated model to identify the realizations that need to be considered to compute the quantity of interest. Another user-defined parameter is the number of dimensions of the response spaces between which the mapping is sought. To identify the space dimensions that optimally balance mapping accuracy and risk of overfitting, we follow a Leave-One-Out Cross Validation. Also, the definition of a stopping criterion is central to an automated construction. We use a stability measure based on bootstrap techniques to stop the iterative procedure when the iterative model has converged. The methodology is illustrated with two test cases in which an inverse problem has to be solved and assess the performance of the method. We show that an iterative scheme is crucial to increase the applicability of the approach. [1] Josset, L., and I. Lunati, Local and global error models for improving uncertainty quantification, Math.ematical Geosciences, 2013 [2] Josset, L., D. Ginsbourger, and I. Lunati, Functional Error Modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology, Water Resources Research, 2015 [3] Josset, L., V. Demyanov, A.H. Elsheikhb, and I. Lunati, Accelerating Monte Carlo Markov chains with proxy and error models, Computer & Geosciences, 2015 (In press)

Multi-timescale data assimilation for atmosphere–ocean state estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steiger, Nathan; Hakim, Gregory

2016-06-24

Paleoclimate proxy data span seasonal to millennial timescales, and Earth's climate system has both high- and low-frequency components. Yet it is currently unclear how best to incorporate multiple timescales of proxy data into a single reconstruction framework and to also capture both high- and low-frequency components of reconstructed variables. Here we present a data assimilation approach that can explicitly incorporate proxy data at arbitrary timescales. The principal advantage of using such an approach is that it allows much more proxy data to inform a climate reconstruction, though there can be additional benefits. Through a series of offline data-assimilation-based pseudoproxy experiments,more » we find that atmosphere–ocean states are most skillfully reconstructed by incorporating proxies across multiple timescales compared to using proxies at short (annual) or long (~ decadal) timescales alone. Additionally, reconstructions that incorporate long-timescale pseudoproxies improve the low-frequency components of the reconstructions relative to using only high-resolution pseudoproxies. We argue that this is because time averaging high-resolution observations improves their covariance relationship with the slowly varying components of the coupled-climate system, which the data assimilation algorithm can exploit. These results are consistent across the climate models considered, despite the model variables having very different spectral characteristics. Furthermore, our results also suggest that it may be possible to reconstruct features of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation based on atmospheric surface temperature proxies, though here we find such reconstructions lack spectral power over a broad range of frequencies.« less

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions for the European region in the past millennium (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorita, E.

2009-12-01

One of the objectives when comparing simulations of past climates to proxy-based climate reconstructions is to asses the skill of climate models to simulate climate change. This comparison may accomplished at large spatial scales, for instance the evolution of simulated and reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature, or at regional or point scales. In both approaches a 'fair' comparison has to take into account different aspects that affect the inevitable uncertainties and biases in the simulations and in the reconstructions. These efforts face a trade-off: climate models are believed to be more skillful at large hemispheric scales, but climate reconstructions are these scales are burdened by the spatial distribution of available proxies and by methodological issues surrounding the statistical method used to translate the proxy information into large-spatial averages. Furthermore, the internal climatic noise at large hemispheric scales is low, so that the sampling uncertainty tends to be also low. On the other hand, the skill of climate models at regional scales is limited by the coarse spatial resolution, which hinders a faithful representation of aspects important for the regional climate. At small spatial scales, the reconstruction of past climate probably faces less methodological problems if information from different proxies is available. The internal climatic variability at regional scales is, however, high. In this contribution some examples of the different issues faced when comparing simulation and reconstructions at small spatial scales in the past millennium are discussed. These examples comprise reconstructions from dendrochronological data and from historical documentary data in Europe and climate simulations with global and regional models. These examples indicate that the centennial climate variations can offer a reasonable target to assess the skill of global climate models and of proxy-based reconstructions, even at small spatial scales. However, as the focus shifts towards higher frequency variability, decadal or multidecadal, the need for larger simulation ensembles becomes more evident. Nevertheless,the comparison at these time scales may expose some lines of research on the origin of multidecadal regional climate variability.

Synthetic Proxy Infrastructure for Task Evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Junghans, Christoph; Pavel, Robert

The Synthetic Proxy Infrastructure for Task Evaluation is a proxy application designed to support application developers in gauging the performance of various task granularities when determining how best to utilize task based programming models.The infrastructure is designed to provide examples of common communication patterns with a synthetic workload intended to provide performance data to evaluate programming model and platform overheads for the purpose of determining task granularity for task decomposition purposes. This is presented as a reference implementation of a proxy application with run-time configurable input and output task dependencies ranging from an embarrassingly parallel scenario to patterns with stencil-likemore » dependencies upon their nearest neighbors. Once all, if any, inputs are satisfied each task will execute a synthetic workload (a simple DGEMM of in this case) of varying size and output all, if any, outputs to the next tasks.The intent is for this reference implementation to be implemented as a proxy app in different programming models so as to provide the same infrastructure and to allow for application developers to simulate their own communication needs to assist in task decomposition under various models on a given platform.« less

On the construction of a time base and the elimination of averaging errors in proxy records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beelaerts, V.; De Ridder, F.; Bauwens, M.; Schmitz, N.; Pintelon, R.

2009-04-01

Proxies are sources of climate information which are stored in natural archives (e.g. ice-cores, sediment layers on ocean floors and animals with calcareous marine skeletons). Measuring these proxies produces very short records and mostly involves sampling solid substrates, which is subject to the following two problems: Problem 1: Natural archives are equidistantly sampled at a distance grid along their accretion axis. Starting from these distance series, a time series needs to be constructed, as comparison of different data records is only meaningful on a time grid. The time series will be non-equidistant, as the accretion rate is non-constant. Problem 2: A typical example of sampling solid substrates is drilling. Because of the dimensions of the drill, the holes drilled will not be infinitesimally small. Consequently, samples are not taken at a point in distance, but rather over a volume in distance. This holds for most sampling methods in solid substrates. As a consequence, when the continuous proxy signal is sampled, it will be averaged over the volume of the sample, resulting in an underestimation of the amplitude. Whether this averaging effect is significant, depends on the volume of the sample and the variations of interest of the proxy signal. Starting from the measured signal, the continuous signal needs to be reconstructed in order eliminate these averaging errors. The aim is to provide an efficient identification algorithm to identify the non-linearities in the distance-time relationship, called time base distortions, and to correct for the averaging effects. Because this is a parametric method, an assumption about the proxy signal needs to be made: the proxy record on a time base is assumed to be harmonic, this is an obvious assumption because natural archives often exhibit a seasonal cycle. In a first approach the averaging effects are assumed to be in one direction only, i.e. the direction of the axis on which the measurements were performed. The measured averaged proxy signal is modeled by following signal model: -- Δ ∫ n+12Δδ- y(n,θ) = δ- 1Δ- y(m,θ)dm n-2 δ where m is the position, x(m) = Δm; θ are the unknown parameters and y(m,θ) is the proxy signal we want to identify (the proxy signal as found in the natural archive), which we model as: y(m, θ) = A +∑H [A sin(kωt(m ))+ A cos(kωt(m ))] 0 k=1 k k+H With t(m): t(m) = mTS + g(m )TS Here TS = 1/fS is the sampling period, fS the sampling frequency, and g(m) the unknown time base distortion (TBD). In this work a splines approximation of the TBD is chosen: ∑ g(m ) = b blφl(m ) l=1 where, b is a vector of unknown time base distortion parameters, and φ is a set of splines. The estimates of the unknown parameters were obtained with a nonlinear least squares algorithm. The vessel density measured in the mangrove tree R mucronata was used to illustrate the method. The vessel density is a proxy for the rain fall in tropical regions. The proxy data on the newly constructed time base showed a yearly periodicity, this is what we expected and the correction for the averaging effect increased the amplitude by 11.18%.

Revocable identity-based proxy re-signature against signing key exposure.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaodong; Chen, Chunlin; Ma, Tingchun; Wang, Jinli; Wang, Caifen

2018-01-01

Identity-based proxy re-signature (IDPRS) is a novel cryptographic primitive that allows a semi-trusted proxy to convert a signature under one identity into another signature under another identity on the same message by using a re-signature key. Due to this transformation function, IDPRS is very useful in constructing privacy-preserving schemes for various information systems. Key revocation functionality is important in practical IDPRS for managing users dynamically; however, the existing IDPRS schemes do not provide revocation mechanisms that allow the removal of misbehaving or compromised users from the system. In this paper, we first introduce a notion called revocable identity-based proxy re-signature (RIDPRS) to achieve the revocation functionality. We provide a formal definition of RIDPRS as well as its security model. Then, we present a concrete RIDPRS scheme that can resist signing key exposure and prove that the proposed scheme is existentially unforgeable against adaptive chosen identity and message attacks in the standard model. To further improve the performance of signature verification in RIDPRS, we introduce a notion called server-aided revocable identity-based proxy re-signature (SA-RIDPRS). Moreover, we extend the proposed RIDPRS scheme to the SA-RIDPRS scheme and prove that this extended scheme is secure against adaptive chosen message and collusion attacks. The analysis results show that our two schemes remain efficient in terms of computational complexity when implementing user revocation procedures. In particular, in the SA-RIDPRS scheme, the verifier needs to perform only a bilinear pairing and four exponentiation operations to verify the validity of the signature. Compared with other IDPRS schemes in the standard model, our SA-RIDPRS scheme greatly reduces the computation overhead of verification.

Revocable identity-based proxy re-signature against signing key exposure

PubMed Central

Ma, Tingchun; Wang, Jinli; Wang, Caifen

2018-01-01

Identity-based proxy re-signature (IDPRS) is a novel cryptographic primitive that allows a semi-trusted proxy to convert a signature under one identity into another signature under another identity on the same message by using a re-signature key. Due to this transformation function, IDPRS is very useful in constructing privacy-preserving schemes for various information systems. Key revocation functionality is important in practical IDPRS for managing users dynamically; however, the existing IDPRS schemes do not provide revocation mechanisms that allow the removal of misbehaving or compromised users from the system. In this paper, we first introduce a notion called revocable identity-based proxy re-signature (RIDPRS) to achieve the revocation functionality. We provide a formal definition of RIDPRS as well as its security model. Then, we present a concrete RIDPRS scheme that can resist signing key exposure and prove that the proposed scheme is existentially unforgeable against adaptive chosen identity and message attacks in the standard model. To further improve the performance of signature verification in RIDPRS, we introduce a notion called server-aided revocable identity-based proxy re-signature (SA-RIDPRS). Moreover, we extend the proposed RIDPRS scheme to the SA-RIDPRS scheme and prove that this extended scheme is secure against adaptive chosen message and collusion attacks. The analysis results show that our two schemes remain efficient in terms of computational complexity when implementing user revocation procedures. In particular, in the SA-RIDPRS scheme, the verifier needs to perform only a bilinear pairing and four exponentiation operations to verify the validity of the signature. Compared with other IDPRS schemes in the standard model, our SA-RIDPRS scheme greatly reduces the computation overhead of verification. PMID:29579125

Method of frequency dependent correlations: investigating the variability of total solar irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelt, J.; Käpylä, M. J.; Olspert, N.

2017-04-01

Context. This paper contributes to the field of modeling and hindcasting of the total solar irradiance (TSI) based on different proxy data that extend further back in time than the TSI that is measured from satellites. Aims: We introduce a simple method to analyze persistent frequency-dependent correlations (FDCs) between the time series and use these correlations to hindcast missing historical TSI values. We try to avoid arbitrary choices of the free parameters of the model by computing them using an optimization procedure. The method can be regarded as a general tool for pairs of data sets, where correlating and anticorrelating components can be separated into non-overlapping regions in frequency domain. Methods: Our method is based on low-pass and band-pass filtering with a Gaussian transfer function combined with de-trending and computation of envelope curves. Results: We find a major controversy between the historical proxies and satellite-measured targets: a large variance is detected between the low-frequency parts of targets, while the low-frequency proxy behavior of different measurement series is consistent with high precision. We also show that even though the rotational signal is not strongly manifested in the targets and proxies, it becomes clearly visible in FDC spectrum. A significant part of the variability can be explained by a very simple model consisting of two components: the original proxy describing blanketing by sunspots, and the low-pass-filtered curve describing the overall activity level. The models with the full library of the different building blocks can be applied to hindcasting with a high level of confidence, Rc ≈ 0.90. The usefulness of these models is limited by the major target controversy. Conclusions: The application of the new method to solar data allows us to obtain important insights into the different TSI modeling procedures and their capabilities for hindcasting based on the directly observed time intervals.

Assessing the spatial representability of charcoal and PAH-based paleofire records with integrated GIS, modelling, and empirical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vachula, R. S.; Huang, Y.; Russell, J. M.

2017-12-01

Lake sediment-based fire reconstructions offer paleoenvironmental context in which to assess modern fires and predict future burning. However, despite the ubiquity, many uncertainties remain regarding the taphonomy of paleofire proxies and the spatial scales for which they record variations in fire history. Here we present down-core proxy analyses of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and three size-fractions of charcoal (63-150, >150 and >250 μm) from Swamp Lake, California, an annually laminated lacustrine archive. Using a statewide historical GIS dataset of area burned, we assess the spatial scales for which these proxies are reliable recorders of fire history. We find that the coherence of observed and proxy-recorded fire history inherently depends upon spatial scale. Contrary to conventional thinking that charcoal mainly records local fires, our results indicate that macroscopic charcoal (>150 μm) may record spatially broader (<25 km) changes in fire history, and as such, the coarsest charcoal particles (>250 μm) may be a more conservative proxy for local burning. We find that sub-macroscopic charcoal particles (63-150 μm) reliably record regional (up to 150 km) changes in fire history. These results indicate that charcoal-based fire reconstructions may represent spatially broader fire history than previously thought, which has major implications for our understanding of spatiotemporal paleofire variations. Our analyses of PAHs show that dispersal mobility is heterogeneous between compounds, but that PAH fluxes are reliable proxies of fire history within 25-50 km, which suggests PAHs may be a better spatially constrained paleofire proxy than sedimentary charcoal. Further, using a linear discriminant analysis model informed by modern emissions analyses, we show that PAH assemblages preserved in lake sediments can differentiate vegetation type burned, and are thus promising paleoecological biomarkers warranting further research and implementation. In sum, our analyses offer new insight into the spatial dimensions of paleofire proxies and constitute a methodology that can be applied to other locations and proxies to better inform site-specific reconstructions.

Numerical Modelling of Speleothem and Dripwater Chemistry: Interpreting Coupled Trace Element and Isotope Proxies for Climate Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, R.; Day, C. C.; Henderson, G. M.

2016-12-01

Speleothem palaeoclimate records are widely used but are often difficult to interpret due to the geochemical complexity of the soil-karst-cave system. Commonly analysed proxies (e.g. δ18O, δ13C and Mg/Ca) may be affected by multiple processes along the water flow path from atmospheric moisture source through to the cave drip site. Controls on speleothem chemistry include rainfall and aerosol chemistry, bedrock chemistry, temperature, soil pCO2, the degree of open-system dissolution and prior calcite precipitation. Disentangling the effects of these controls is necessary to fully interpret speleothem palaeoclimate records. To quantify the effects of these processes, we have developed an isotope-enabled numerical model based on the geochemical modelling software PHREEQC. The model calculates dripwater chemistry and isotopes through equilibrium bedrock dissolution and subsequent iterative CO2 degassing and calcite precipitation. This approach allows forward modelling of dripwater and speleothem proxies, both chemical (e.g. Ca concentration, pH, Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios) and isotopic (e.g. δ18O, δ13C, δ44Ca and radiocarbon content), in a unified framework. Potential applications of this model are varied and the model may be readily expanded to include new isotope systems or processes. Here we focus on calculated proxy co-variation due to changes in model parameters. Examples include: - The increase in Ca concentration, decrease in δ13C and increase in radiocarbon content as bedrock dissolution becomes more open-system. - Covariation between δ13C, δ44Ca and trace metal proxies (e.g. Mg/Ca) predicted by changing prior calcite precipitation. - The effect of temperature change on all proxies through the soil-karst-cave system. Separating the impact of soil and karst processes on geochemical proxies allows more quantitative reconstruction of the past environment, and greater understanding in modern cave monitoring studies.

Exploring the usability of isotopically anomalous oxygen in bones and teeth as paleo-CO2-barometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pack, Andreas; Gehler, Alexander; Süssenberger, Annette

2013-02-01

Fluctuations in atmospheric p may have played the key role in global climate throughout Earth's history. For the quantification of past variations in atmospheric p, several geological proxy approaches and geochemical models have been developed. Here, we evaluate a new CO2 proxy approach that is based on the triple oxygen isotope composition (16O, 17O, 18O) of skeletal apatite of terrestrial mammals. Our approach utilizes the relation between an anomaly in 17O of tropospheric air O2 and atmospheric p. The anomaly is transferred from inhaled air O2 to skeletal apatite of mammals. Hence, triple oxygen isotope data of mammalian bioapatite provide information regarding p during the animal's lifetime. The approach was calibrated with a detailed mass balance model that was verified by analyses on a set of recent mammals. We evaluate the potential of this new independent terrestrial paleo-CO2 proxy in a case study including Eocene to Miocene samples. The present investigation provides promising results that are in good agreement with existing proxy- and model data. The uncertainty intrinsic to the proxy is mainly due to uncertainties in physiological parameters.

Reconstructing East African rainfall and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures over the last centuries using data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, François; Goosse, Hugues

2018-06-01

The relationship between the East African rainfall and Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) is well established. The potential interest of this covariance to improve reconstructions of both variables over the last centuries is examined here. This is achieved through an off-line method of data assimilation based on a particle filter, using hydroclimate-related records at four East African sites (Lake Naivasha, Lake Challa, Lake Malawi and Lake Masoko) and SSTs-related records at six oceanic sites spread over the Indian Ocean to constrain the Last Millennium Ensemble of simulations performed by CESM1. Skillful reconstructions of the Indian SSTs and East African rainfall can be obtained based on the assimilation of only one of these variables, when assimilating pseudo-proxy data deduced from the model CESM1. The skill of these reconstructions increases with the number of particles selected in the particle filter, although the improvement becomes modest beyond 99 particles. When considering a more realistic framework, the skill of the reconstructions is strongly deteriorated because of the model biases and the uncertainties of the real proxy-based reconstructions. However, it is still possible to obtain a skillful reconstruction of SSTs over most of the Indian Ocean only based on the assimilation of the six SST-related proxy records selected, as far as a local calibration is applied at all individual sites. This underlines once more the critical role of an adequate integration of the signal inferred from proxy records into the climate models for reconstructions based on data assimilation.

A New Proxy Measurement Algorithm with Application to the Estimation of Vertical Ground Reaction Forces Using Wearable Sensors

PubMed Central

Billings, Stephen A.; Pavic, Aleksandar; Guo, Ling-Zhong

2017-01-01

Measurement of the ground reaction forces (GRF) during walking is typically limited to laboratory settings, and only short observations using wearable pressure insoles have been reported so far. In this study, a new proxy measurement method is proposed to estimate the vertical component of the GRF (vGRF) from wearable accelerometer signals. The accelerations are used as the proxy variable. An orthogonal forward regression algorithm (OFR) is employed to identify the dynamic relationships between the proxy variables and the measured vGRF using pressure-sensing insoles. The obtained model, which represents the connection between the proxy variable and the vGRF, is then used to predict the latter. The results have been validated using pressure insoles data collected from nine healthy individuals under two outdoor walking tasks in non-laboratory settings. The results show that the vGRFs can be reconstructed with high accuracy (with an average prediction error of less than 5.0%) using only one wearable sensor mounted at the waist (L5, fifth lumbar vertebra). Proxy measures with different sensor positions are also discussed. Results show that the waist acceleration-based proxy measurement is more stable with less inter-task and inter-subject variability than the proxy measures based on forehead level accelerations. The proposed proxy measure provides a promising low-cost method for monitoring ground reaction forces in real-life settings and introduces a novel generic approach for replacing the direct determination of difficult to measure variables in many applications. PMID:28937593

Proxy-SU(3) symmetry in heavy deformed nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonatsos, Dennis; Assimakis, I. E.; Minkov, N.; Martinou, Andriana; Cakirli, R. B.; Casten, R. F.; Blaum, K.

2017-06-01

Background: Microscopic calculations of heavy nuclei face considerable difficulties due to the sizes of the matrices that need to be solved. Various approximation schemes have been invoked, for example by truncating the spaces, imposing seniority limits, or appealing to various symmetry schemes such as pseudo-SU(3). This paper proposes a new symmetry scheme also based on SU(3). This proxy-SU(3) can be applied to well-deformed nuclei, is simple to use, and can yield analytic predictions. Purpose: To present the new scheme and its microscopic motivation, and to test it using a Nilsson model calculation with the original shell model orbits and with the new proxy set. Method: We invoke an approximate, analytic, treatment of the Nilsson model, that allows the above vetting and yet is also transparent in understanding the approximations involved in the new proxy-SU(3). Results: It is found that the new scheme yields a Nilsson diagram for well-deformed nuclei that is very close to the original Nilsson diagram. The specific levels of approximation in the new scheme are also shown, for each major shell. Conclusions: The new proxy-SU(3) scheme is a good approximation to the full set of orbits in a major shell. Being able to replace a complex shell model calculation with a symmetry-based description now opens up the possibility to predict many properties of nuclei analytically and often in a parameter-free way. The new scheme works best for heavier nuclei, precisely where full microscopic calculations are most challenged. Some cases in which the new scheme can be used, often analytically, to make specific predictions, are shown in a subsequent paper.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variations in 240 - 1600 nm During the Recent Solar Cycles 21 - 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Deland, M. T.; Floyd, L. E.; Burrows, J. P.

2011-08-01

Regular solar spectral irradiance (SSI) observations from space that simultaneously cover the UV, visible (vis), and the near-IR (NIR) spectral region began with SCIAMACHY aboard ENVISAT in August 2002. Up to now, these direct observations cover less than a decade. In order for these SSI measurements to be useful in assessing the role of the Sun in climate change, records covering more than an eleven-year solar cycle are required. By using our recently developed empirical SCIA proxy model, we reconstruct daily SSI values over several decades by using solar proxies scaled to short-term SCIAMACHY solar irradiance observations to describe decadal irradiance changes. These calculations are compared to existing solar data: the UV data from SUSIM/UARS, from the DeLand & Cebula satellite composite, and the SIP model (S2K+VUV2002); and UV-vis-IR data from the NRLSSI and SATIRE models, and SIM/SORCE measurements. The mean SSI of the latter models show good agreement (less than 5%) in the vis regions over three decades while larger disagreements (10 - 20%) are found in the UV and IR regions. Between minima and maxima of Solar Cycles 21, 22, and 23, the inferred SSI variability from the SCIA proxy is intermediate between SATIRE and NRLSSI in the UV. While the DeLand & Cebula composite provide the highest variability between solar minimum and maximum, the SIP/Solar2000 and NRLSSI models show minimum variability, which may be due to the use of a single proxy in the modeling of the irradiances. In the vis-IR spectral region, the SCIA proxy model reports lower values in the changes from solar maximum to minimum, which may be attributed to overestimations of the sunspot proxy used in modeling the SCIAMACHY irradiances. The fairly short timeseries of SIM/SORCE shows a steeper decreasing (increasing) trend in the UV (vis) than the other data during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23. Though considered to be only provisional, the opposite trend seen in the visible SIM data challenges the validity of proxy-based linear extrapolation commonly used in reconstructing past irradiances.

High-Fidelity Modeling of Computer Network Worms

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-22

plots the propagation of the TCP-based worm. This execution is among the largest TCP worm models simulated to date at packet-level. TCP vs . UDP Worm...the mapping of the virtual IP addresses to honeyd’s MAC address in the proxy’s ARP table. The proxy server listens for packets from both sides of...experimental setup, we used two ntium-4 ThinkPad , and an IBM Pentium-III ThinkPad ), running the proxy server and honeyd respectively. The Code Red II worm

The Role of Arctic Sea Ice in Last Millennium Climate Variability: Model-Proxy Comparisons Using Ensemble Members and Novel Model Experiments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gertler, C. G.; Monier, E.; Prinn, R. G.

2016-12-01

Variability in sea ice extent is a prominent feature of forced simulations of the last millennium and reconstructions of paleoclimate using proxy records. The rapid 20th century decline in sea ice extent is most likely due to greenhouse gas forcing, but the accuracy of future projections depend on the characterization of natural variability. Declining sea ice extent affects regional climate and society, but also plays a large role in Arctic amplification, with implications for mid-latitude circulation and even large-scale climate oscillations. To characterize the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on sea ice and the related changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, a combination of instrumental record, paleoclimate reconstructions, and general circulation models can be employed to recreate sea ice extents and the corresponding atmosphere-ocean states. Model output from the last millennium ensemble (LME) is compared to a proxy-based sea ice reconstruction and a global proxy network using a variety of statistical and data assimilation techniques. Further model runs using the Community Earth Systems Model (CESM) are performed with the same inputs as LME but forced with experimental sea ice extents, and results are contextualized within the larger ensemble by a variety of metrics.

Optimization of Geothermal Well Placement under Geological Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulte, Daniel O.; Arnold, Dan; Demyanov, Vasily; Sass, Ingo; Geiger, Sebastian

2017-04-01

Well placement optimization is critical to commercial success of geothermal projects. However, uncertainties of geological parameters prohibit optimization based on a single scenario of the subsurface, particularly when few expensive wells are to be drilled. The optimization of borehole locations is usually based on numerical reservoir models to predict reservoir performance and entails the choice of objectives to optimize (total enthalpy, minimum enthalpy rate, production temperature) and the development options to adjust (well location, pump rate, difference in production and injection temperature). Optimization traditionally requires trying different development options on a single geological realization yet there are many possible different interpretations possible. Therefore, we aim to optimize across a range of representative geological models to account for geological uncertainty in geothermal optimization. We present an approach that uses a response surface methodology based on a large number of geological realizations selected by experimental design to optimize the placement of geothermal wells in a realistic field example. A large number of geological scenarios and design options were simulated and the response surfaces were constructed using polynomial proxy models, which consider both geological uncertainties and design parameters. The polynomial proxies were validated against additional simulation runs and shown to provide an adequate representation of the model response for the cases tested. The resulting proxy models allow for the identification of the optimal borehole locations given the mean response of the geological scenarios from the proxy (i.e. maximizing or minimizing the mean response). The approach is demonstrated on the realistic Watt field example by optimizing the borehole locations to maximize the mean heat extraction from the reservoir under geological uncertainty. The training simulations are based on a comprehensive semi-synthetic data set of a hierarchical benchmark case study for a hydrocarbon reservoir, which specifically considers the interpretational uncertainty in the modeling work flow. The optimal choice of boreholes prolongs the time to cold water breakthrough and allows for higher pump rates and increased water production temperatures.

A security and privacy preserving e-prescription system based on smart cards.

PubMed

Hsu, Chien-Lung; Lu, Chung-Fu

2012-12-01

In 2002, Ateniese and Medeiros proposed an e-prescription system, in which the patient can store e-prescription and related information using smart card. Latter, Yang et al. proposed a novel smart-card based e-prescription system based on Ateniese and Medeiros's system in 2004. Yang et al. considered the privacy issues of prescription data and adopted the concept of a group signature to provide patient's privacy protection. To make the e-prescription system more realistic, they further applied a proxy signature to allow a patient to delegate his signing capability to other people. This paper proposed a novel security and privacy preserving e-prescription system model based on smart cards. A new role, chemist, is included in the system model for settling the medicine dispute. We further presented a concrete identity-based (ID-based) group signature scheme and an ID-based proxy signature scheme to realize the proposed model. Main property of an ID-based system is that public key is simple user's identity and can be verified without extra public key certificates. Our ID-based group signature scheme can allow doctors to sign e-prescription anonymously. In a case of a medical dispute, identities of the doctors can be identified. The proposed ID-based proxy signature scheme can improve signing delegation and allows a delegation chain. The proposed e-prescription system based on our proposed two cryptographic schemes is more practical and efficient than Yang et al.'s system in terms of security, communication overheads, computational costs, practical considerations.

New security infrastructure model for distributed computing systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubenskaya, J.; Kryukov, A.; Demichev, A.; Prikhodko, N.

2016-02-01

At the paper we propose a new approach to setting up a user-friendly and yet secure authentication and authorization procedure in a distributed computing system. The security concept of the most heterogeneous distributed computing systems is based on the public key infrastructure along with proxy certificates which are used for rights delegation. In practice a contradiction between the limited lifetime of the proxy certificates and the unpredictable time of the request processing is a big issue for the end users of the system. We propose to use unlimited in time hashes which are individual for each request instead of proxy certificate. Our approach allows to avoid using of the proxy certificates. Thus the security infrastructure of distributed computing system becomes easier for development, support and use.

Timescale dependence of the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon strength and precipitation over eastern China in the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Jian; Yan, Qing; Wang, Huijun

2018-04-01

Precipitation/humidity proxies are widely used to reconstruct the historical East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variations based on the assumption that summer precipitation over eastern China is closely and stably linked to the strength of EASM. However, whether the observed EASM-precipitation relationship (e.g., increased precipitation with a stronger EASM) was stable throughout the past remains unclear. In this study, we used model outputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III and Community Earth System Model to investigate the stability of the EASM-precipitation relationship over the last millennium on different timescales. The model results indicate that the EASM strength (defined as the regionally averaged meridional wind) was enhanced in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ˜ 950-1250 AD), during which there was increased precipitation over eastern China, and weakened during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ˜ 1500-1800 AD), during which there was decreased precipitation, consistent with precipitation/humidity proxies. However, the simulated EASM-precipitation relationship is only stable on a centennial and longer timescale and is unstable on a shorter timescale. The nonstationary short-timescale EASM-precipitation relationship broadly exhibits a multi-decadal periodicity, which may be attributed to the internal variability of the climate system and has no significant correlation to external forcings. Our results have implications for understanding the discrepancy among various EASM proxies on a multi-decadal timescale and highlight the need to rethink reconstructed decadal EASM variations based on precipitation/humidity proxies.

Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models.

PubMed

Mazzoni, Alberto; Lindén, Henrik; Cuntz, Hermann; Lansner, Anders; Panzeri, Stefano; Einevoll, Gaute T

2015-12-01

Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local field potential (LFP). Given that LFPs are generated by spatially separated currents across the neuronal membrane, they cannot be computed directly from quantities defined in models of point-like LIF neurons. Here, we explore the best approximation for predicting the LFP based on standard output from point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best "LFP proxy", we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents) with "ground-truth" LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected into an analogous three-dimensional (3D) network model of multi-compartmental neurons with realistic morphology, spatial distributions of somata and synapses. We found that a specific fixed linear combination of the LIF synaptic currents provided an accurate LFP proxy, accounting for most of the variance of the LFP time course observed in the 3D network for all recording locations. This proxy performed well over a broad set of conditions, including substantial variations of the neuronal morphologies. Our results provide a simple formula for estimating the time course of the LFP from LIF network simulations in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo.

Oceanic Lithosphere/Asthenosphere Boundary from surface wave dispersion data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgos, G.; Montagner, J.; Beucler, E.; Capdeville, Y.; Mocquet, A.

2013-12-01

The nature of Lithosphere-Asthenosphere boundary (LAB) is controversial according to different types of observations. Using a massive dataset of surface wave dispersions in a broad frequency range (15-300s), we have developed a 3-D tomographic model (1st order perturbation theory) of the upper-mantle at the global scale. It is used to derive maps of LAB from the resolved elastic parameters. The key effects of shallow layers and anisotropy are taken into account in the inversion process. We investigate LAB distributions primarily below oceans according to three different proxies which corresponds to the base of the lithosphere from the vertically polarized shear velocity variation at depth, the top of the radial anisotropy positive anomaly and from the changes in orientation of the fast axis of azimuthal anisotropy. The LAB depth determinations of the different proxies are basically consistent for each oceanic region. The estimations of the LAB depth based on the shear velocity proxy increase from thin (20 km) lithosphere in the ridges to thick (120--130 km) old ocean lithosphere. The radial anisotropy proxy presents a very fast increase of the LAB depth from the ridges, from 50 km to older ocean where it reaches a remarkable monotonic sub-horizontal profile (70--80 km). LAB depths inferred from azimuthal anisotropy proxy show deeper values for the increasing oceanic lithosphere (130--135 km). The results present two types of pattern of the age of oceanic lithosphere evolution with the LAB depth. The shear velocity and azimuthal anisotropy proxies show age-dependent profiles in agreement with thermal plate models while the LAB based on radial anisotropy is characterized by a shallower depth, defining a sub-horizontal interface with a very small age dependence for all three main oceans (Pacific, Atlantic and Indian). These different patterns raise questions about the nature of the LAB in the oceanic regions, and of the formation of oceanic plates.

Foraminifera Models to Interrogate Ostensible Proxy-Model Discrepancies During Late Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, P.; Dowsett, H. J.; de Mutsert, K.

2017-12-01

Planktic foraminifera faunal assemblages have been used in the reconstruction of past oceanic states (e.g. the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period). However these reconstruction efforts have typically relied on inverse modeling using transfer functions or the modern analog technique, which by design seek to translate foraminifera into one or two target oceanic variables, primarily sea surface temperature (SST). These reconstructed SST data have then been used to test the performance of climate models, and discrepancies have been attributed to shortcomings in climate model processes and/or boundary conditions. More recently forward proxy models or proxy system models have been used to leverage the multivariate nature of proxy relationships to their environment, and to "bring models into proxy space". Here we construct ecological models of key planktic foraminifera taxa, calibrated and validated with World Ocean Atlas (WO13) oceanographic data. Multiple modeling methods (e.g. multilayer perceptron neural networks, Mahalanobis distance, logistic regression, and maximum entropy) are investigated to ensure robust results. The resulting models are then driven by a Late Pliocene climate model simulation with biogeochemical as well as temperature variables. Similarities and differences with previous model-proxy comparisons (e.g. PlioMIP) are discussed.

An efficient assisted history matching and uncertainty quantification workflow using Gaussian processes proxy models and variogram based sensitivity analysis: GP-VARS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Sachin; Ertekin, Turgay; King, Gregory R.

2018-05-01

Reservoir history matching is frequently viewed as an optimization problem which involves minimizing misfit between simulated and observed data. Many gradient and evolutionary strategy based optimization algorithms have been proposed to solve this problem which typically require a large number of numerical simulations to find feasible solutions. Therefore, a new methodology referred to as GP-VARS is proposed in this study which uses forward and inverse Gaussian processes (GP) based proxy models combined with a novel application of variogram analysis of response surface (VARS) based sensitivity analysis to efficiently solve high dimensional history matching problems. Empirical Bayes approach is proposed to optimally train GP proxy models for any given data. The history matching solutions are found via Bayesian optimization (BO) on forward GP models and via predictions of inverse GP model in an iterative manner. An uncertainty quantification method using MCMC sampling in conjunction with GP model is also presented to obtain a probabilistic estimate of reservoir properties and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). An application of the proposed GP-VARS methodology on PUNQ-S3 reservoir is presented in which it is shown that GP-VARS provides history match solutions in approximately four times less numerical simulations as compared to the differential evolution (DE) algorithm. Furthermore, a comparison of uncertainty quantification results obtained by GP-VARS, EnKF and other previously published methods shows that the P50 estimate of oil EUR obtained by GP-VARS is in close agreement to the true values for the PUNQ-S3 reservoir.

Reconstructing Holocene climate using a climate model: Model strategy and preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberkorn, K.; Blender, R.; Lunkeit, F.; Fraedrich, K.

2009-04-01

An Earth system model of intermediate complexity (Planet Simulator; PlaSim) is used to reconstruct Holocene climate based on proxy data. The Planet Simulator is a user friendly general circulation model (GCM) suitable for palaeoclimate research. Its easy handling and the modular structure allow for fast and problem dependent simulations. The spectral model is based on the moist primitive equations conserving momentum, mass, energy and moisture. Besides the atmospheric part, a mixed layer-ocean with sea ice and a land surface with biosphere are included. The present-day climate of PlaSim, based on an AMIP II control-run (T21/10L resolution), shows reasonable agreement with ERA-40 reanalysis data. Combining PlaSim with a socio-technological model (GLUES; DFG priority project INTERDYNAMIK) provides improved knowledge on the shift from hunting-gathering to agropastoral subsistence societies. This is achieved by a data assimilation approach, incorporating proxy time series into PlaSim to initialize palaeoclimate simulations during the Holocene. For this, the following strategy is applied: The sensitivities of the terrestrial PlaSim climate are determined with respect to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Here, the focus is the impact of regionally varying SST both in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The inverse of these sensitivities is used to determine the SST conditions necessary for the nudging of land and coastal proxy climates. Preliminary results indicate the potential, the uncertainty and the limitations of the method.

Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium - insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seftigen, Kristina; Goosse, Hugues; Klein, Francois; Chen, Deliang

2017-12-01

The integration of climate proxy information with general circulation model (GCM) results offers considerable potential for deriving greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability, as well as unique opportunities for out-of-sample evaluations of model performance. In this study, we combine insights from a new tree-ring hydroclimate reconstruction from Scandinavia with projections from a suite of forced transient simulations of the last millennium and historical intervals from the CMIP5 and PMIP3 archives. Model simulations and proxy reconstruction data are found to broadly agree on the modes of atmospheric variability that produce droughts-pluvials in the region. Despite these dynamical similarities, large differences between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate time series remain. We find that the GCM-simulated multi-decadal and/or longer hydroclimate variability is systematically smaller than the proxy-based estimates, whereas the dominance of GCM-simulated high-frequency components of variability is not reflected in the proxy record. Furthermore, the paleoclimate evidence indicates in-phase coherencies between regional hydroclimate and temperature on decadal timescales, i.e., sustained wet periods have often been concurrent with warm periods and vice versa. The CMIP5-PMIP3 archive suggests, however, out-of-phase coherencies between the two variables in the last millennium. The lack of adequate understanding of mechanisms linking temperature and moisture supply on longer timescales has serious implications for attribution and prediction of regional hydroclimate changes. Our findings stress the need for further paleoclimate data-model intercomparison efforts to expand our understanding of the dynamics of hydroclimate variability and change, to enhance our ability to evaluate climate models, and to provide a more comprehensive view of future drought and pluvial risks.

Stability of ENSO and Its Tropical Pacific Teleconnections over the Last Millennium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Sophie; Legrande, A. N.

2015-01-01

Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed through time, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships between local and remote climates, and often utilise archives from single locations located in the Pacific Ocean to reconstruct ENSO histories. Here, we investigate the stationarity of ENSO teleconnections using the Last Millennium experiment of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We show that modelled ENSO characteristics vary on decadal- to centennial-scales, resulting from internal variability and external forcings, such as tropical volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the relationship between ENSO conditions and local climates across the Pacific basin varies throughout the Last Millennium. Results show the stability of teleconnections is regionally dependent and proxies may reveal complex changes in teleconnected patterns, rather than large-scale changes in base ENSO characteristics. As such, proxy insights into ENSO likely require evidence to be synthesised over large spatial areas in order to deconvolve changes occurring in the NINO3.4 region from those pertaining to proxy-relevant local climatic variables. To obtain robust histories of the ENSO and its remote impacts, we recommend interpretations of proxy records should be considered in conjunction with palaeo-reconstructions from within the Central Pacific

Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium - Part 1: Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundberg, R.; Moberg, A.; Hind, A.

2012-08-01

A statistical framework for comparing the output of ensemble simulations from global climate models with networks of climate proxy and instrumental records has been developed, focusing on near-surface temperatures for the last millennium. This framework includes the formulation of a joint statistical model for proxy data, instrumental data and simulation data, which is used to optimize a quadratic distance measure for ranking climate model simulations. An essential underlying assumption is that the simulations and the proxy/instrumental series have a shared component of variability that is due to temporal changes in external forcing, such as volcanic aerosol load, solar irradiance or greenhouse gas concentrations. Two statistical tests have been formulated. Firstly, a preliminary test establishes whether a significant temporal correlation exists between instrumental/proxy and simulation data. Secondly, the distance measure is expressed in the form of a test statistic of whether a forced simulation is closer to the instrumental/proxy series than unforced simulations. The proposed framework allows any number of proxy locations to be used jointly, with different seasons, record lengths and statistical precision. The goal is to objectively rank several competing climate model simulations (e.g. with alternative model parameterizations or alternative forcing histories) by means of their goodness of fit to the unobservable true past climate variations, as estimated from noisy proxy data and instrumental observations.

Inferring biogeochemistry past: a millennial-scale multimodel assimilation of multiple paleoecological proxies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietze, M.; Raiho, A.; Fer, I.; Dawson, A.; Heilman, K.; Hooten, M.; McLachlan, J. S.; Moore, D. J.; Paciorek, C. J.; Pederson, N.; Rollinson, C.; Tipton, J.

2017-12-01

The pre-industrial period serves as an essential baseline against which we judge anthropogenic impacts on the earth's systems. However, direct measurements of key biogeochemical processes, such as carbon, water, and nutrient cycling, are absent for this period and there is no direct way to link paleoecological proxies, such as pollen and tree rings, to these processes. Process-based terrestrial ecosystem models provide a way to make inferences about the past, but have large uncertainties and by themselves often fail to capture much of the observed variability. Here we investigate the ability to improve inferences about pre-industrial biogeochemical cycles through the formal assimilation of proxy data into multiple process-based models. A Tobit ensemble filter with explicit estimation of process error was run at five sites across the eastern US for three models (LINKAGES, ED2, LPJ-GUESS). In addition to process error, the ensemble accounted for parameter uncertainty, estimated through the assimilation of the TRY and BETY trait databases, and driver uncertainty, accommodated by probabilistically downscaling and debiasing CMIP5 GCM output then filtering based on paleoclimate reconstructions. The assimilation was informed by four PalEON data products, each of which includes an explicit Bayesian error estimate: (1) STEPPS forest composition estimated from fossil pollen; (2) REFAB aboveground biomass (AGB) estimated from fossil pollen; (3) tree ring AGB and woody net primary productivity (wNPP); and (4) public land survey composition, stem density, and AGB. By comparing ensemble runs with and without data assimilation we are able to assess the information contribution of the proxy data to constraining biogeochemical fluxes, which is driven by the combination of model uncertainty, data uncertainty, and the strength of correlation between observed and unobserved quantities in the model ensemble. To our knowledge this is the first attempt at multi-model data assimilation with terrestrial ecosystem models. Results from the data-model assimilation allow us to assess the consistency across models in post-assimilation inferences about indirectly inferred quantities, such as GPP, soil carbon, and the water budget.

Constraining the Late Miocene paleo-CO2 estimates through GCM model-data comparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradshaw, Catherine; Pound, Matthew; Lunt, Daniel; Flecker, Rachel; Salzmann, Ulrich; Haywood, Alan; Riding, James; Francis, Jane

2010-05-01

The period following the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum experienced a continued downward trend in the δ18O record - a record acknowledged as a proxy indicator of both ice volume and temperature (Zachos et al., 2001). Given the link between atmospheric CO2 and temperature (IPCC, 2007), it could be thought that the timeline throughout the Late Miocene would show a general decline in CO2 in accordance with the δ18O record. However, examination of the palaeo-CO2 record shows a relatively flat profile across this time, or perhaps even a slight increase, but there is a wide variation in the palaeo-CO2 estimate for the differing approximation methods. We use the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model of the Hadley Centre, HadCM3L, which has a low resolution ocean (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, Version 3 - low resolution ocean) with TRIFFID (Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics: Cox, 2001) to generate CO2 sensitivity scenarios for the Late Miocene: 180ppmv, 280ppmv and 400ppmv, as well as a preindustrial control simulation: 280 ppmv. We also run the BIOME4 model offline to produce predicted biome distributions for each of our scenarios. We compare both marine and terrestrial modelled temperatures, and the predicted vegetation distributions for these scenarios against available palaeodata As we simulate with a coupled dynamic ocean model, we use planktonic and benthic foraminiferal-based proxy palaeotemperature estimates to compare to the modelled marine temperatures at the depths consistent with the reconstructed palaeoecology of the foraminifera. We compare our modelled terrestrial temperatures to vegetation-based proxy palaeotemperatures, and we use a newly compiled vegetation reconstruction for the Late Miocene to compare to our modelled vegetation distributions. The new Late Miocene vegetation reconstruction is based on a 200+ point database of palaeobotanical sites. Each location is classified into a biome consistent with the BIOME4 model, to allow for easy data - model comparison. We use all these data - model comparisons to constrain the best-fit scenario and the overall most likely Late Miocene CO2 estimate according to the model simulations. Preliminary results suggest that the 400ppmv simulation provides the best fit to the proxy data.

A Quantitative Proxy for Sea-Ice Based on Diatoms: A Cautionary Tale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesterovich, A.; Caissie, B.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in the Polar Regions supports unique and productive ecosystems, but the current decline in the Arctic sea ice extent prompts questions about previous sea ice declines and the response of ice related ecosystems. Since satellite data only extend back to 1978, the study of sea ice before this time requires a proxy. Being one of the most productive, diatom-dominated regions in the world and having a wide range of sea ice concentrations, the Bering and Chukchi seas are a perfect place to find a relationship between the presence of sea ice and diatom community composition. The aim of this work is to develop a diatom-based proxy for the sea ice extent. A total of 473 species have been identified in 104 sediment samples, most of which were collected on board the US Coast Guard Cutter Healy ice breaker (2006, 2007) and the Norseman II (2008). The study also included some of the archived diatom smear slides made from sediments collected in 1969. The assemblages were compared to satellite-derived sea ice extent data averaged over the 10 years preceding the sampling. Previous studies in the Arctic and Antarctic regions demonstrated that the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is one of the best choices for proxy construction. It has the advantage of using only several species instead of the whole assemblage, thus including only sea ice-associated species and minimizing the noise created by species responding to other environmental factors. Our GAM on three species (Connia compita, Fragilariopsis reginae-jahniae, and Neodenticula seminae) has low standard deviation, high level of explained variation, and holds under the ten-fold cross-validation; the standard residual analysis is acceptable. However, a spatial residual analysis revealed that the model consistently over predicts in the Chukchi Sea and under predicts in the Bering Sea. Including a spatial model into the GAM didn't improve the situation. This has led us to test other methods, including a non-parametric model Random Forests. All models showed the same consistent pattern in the residuals. We conclude that ecosystems of the Bering and Chukchi seas respond differently to sea ice concentration and an integrated proxy must take it into account.

Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived from Paleoclimate Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badgeley, J.; Steig, E. J.; Hakim, G. J.; Anderson, J.; Tardif, R.

2017-12-01

Modeling past ice-sheet behavior requires independent knowledge of past surface mass balance. Though models provide useful insight into ice-sheet response to climate forcing, if past climate is unknown, then ascertaining the rate and extent of past ice-sheet change is limited to geological and geophysical constraints. We use a novel data-assimilation framework developed under the Last Millennium Reanalysis Project (Hakim et al., 2016) to reconstruct past climate over ice sheets with the intent of creating an independent surface mass balance record for paleo ice-sheet modeling. Paleoclimate data assimilation combines the physics of climate models and the time series evidence of proxy records in an offline, ensemble-based approach. This framework allows for the assimilation of numerous proxy records and archive types while maintaining spatial consistency with known climate dynamics and physics captured by the models. In our reconstruction, we use the Community Climate System Model version 4, CMIP5 last millennium simulation (Taylor et al., 2012; Landrum et al., 2013) and a nearly complete database of ice core oxygen isotope records to reconstruct Holocene surface temperature and precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet on a decadal timescale. By applying a seasonality to this reconstruction (from the TraCE-21ka simulation; Liu et al., 2009), our reanalysis can be used in seasonally-based surface mass balance models. Here we discuss the methods behind our reanalysis and the performance of our reconstruction through prediction of unassimilated proxy records and comparison to paleoclimate reconstructions and reanalysis products.

Synthesizing late Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions: Lessons learned, common challenges, and implications for future research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodysill, J. R.

2017-12-01

Proxy-based reconstructions provide vital information for developing histories of environmental and climate changes. Networks of spatiotemporal paleoclimate information are powerful tools for understanding dynamical processes within the global climate system and improving model-based predictions of the patterns and magnitudes of climate changes at local- to global-scales. Compiling individual paleoclimate records and integrating reconstructed climate information in the context of an ensemble of multi-proxy records, which are fundamental for developing a spatiotemporal climate data network, are hindered by challenges related to data and information accessibility, chronological uncertainty, sampling resolution, climate proxy type, and differences between depositional environments. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group has been compiling and integrating multi-proxy paleoclimate data as part of an ongoing effort to synthesize Holocene climate records from North America. The USGS North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group recently completed a late Holocene hydroclimate synthesis for the North American continent using several proxy types from a range of depositional environments, including lakes, wetlands, coastal marine, and cave speleothems. Using new age-depth relationships derived from the Bacon software package, we identified century-scale patterns of wetness and dryness for the past 2000 years with an age uncertainty-based confidence rating for each proxy record. Additionally, for highly-resolved North American lake sediment records, we computed average late Holocene sediment deposition rates and identified temporal trends in age uncertainty that are common to multiple lakes. This presentation addresses strengths and challenges of compiling and integrating data from different paleoclimate archives, with a particular focus on lake sediments, which may inform and guide future paleolimnological studies.

Comparison of multi-proxy data with past1000 model output over the Terminal Classic Period (800-1000 A.D.) on the Yucatan Peninsula.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Pelt, S.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Allen, D. M.

2015-12-01

The decline of the Mayan Civilization is thought to be caused by a series of droughts that affected the Yucatan Peninsula during the Terminal Classic Period (T.C.P.) 800-1000 AD. The goals of this study are two-fold: (a) to compare paleo-model simulations of the past 1000 years with a compilation of multiple proxies of changes in moisture conditions for the Yucatan Peninsula during the T.C.P. and (b) to use this comparison to inform the modeling of groundwater recharge in this region, with a focus on generating the daily climate data series needed as input to a groundwater recharge model. To achieve the first objective, we compiled a dataset of 5 proxies from seven locations across the Yucatan Peninsula, to be compared with temperature and precipitation output from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4), which is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) past1000 experiment. The proxy dataset includes oxygen isotopes from speleothems and gastropod/ostrocod shells (11 records); and sediment density, mineralogy, and magnetic susceptibility records from lake sediment cores (3 records). The proxy dataset is supplemented by a compilation of reconstructed temperatures using pollen and tree ring records for North America (archived in the PAGES2k global network data). Our preliminary analysis suggests that many of these datasets show evidence of drier and warmer climate on the Yucatan Peninsula around the T.C.P. when compared to modern conditions, although the amplitude and timing of individual warming and drying events varies between sites. This comparison with modeled output will ultimately be used to inform backward shift factors that will be input to a stochastic weather generator. These shift factors will be based on monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and applied to a modern daily climate time series for the Yucatan Peninsula to produce a daily climate time series for the T.C.P.

How Does Variability in Aragonite Saturation Proxies Impact Our Estimates of the Intensity and Duration of Exposure to Aragonite Corrosive Conditions in a Coastal Upwelling System?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abell, J. T.; Jacobsen, J.; Bjorkstedt, E.

2016-02-01

Determining aragonite saturation state (Ω) in seawater requires measurement of two parameters of the carbonate system: most commonly dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA). The routine measurement of DIC and TA is not always possible on frequently repeated hydrographic lines or at moored-time series that collect hydrographic data at short time intervals. In such cases a proxy can be developed that relates the saturation state as derived from one time or infrequent DIC and TA measurements (Ωmeas) to more frequently measured parameters such as dissolved oxygen (DO) and temperature (Temp). These proxies are generally based on best-fit parameterizations that utilize references values of DO and Temp and adjust linear coefficients until the error between the proxy-derived saturation state (Ωproxy) and Ωmeas is minimized. Proxies have been used to infer Ω from moored hydrographic sensors and gliders which routinely collect DO and Temp data but do not include carbonate parameter measurements. Proxies can also calculate Ω in regional oceanographic models which do not explicitly include carbonate parameters. Here we examine the variability and accuracy of Ωproxy along a near-shore hydrographic line and a moored-time series stations at Trinidad Head, CA. The saturation state is determined using proxies from different coastal regions of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem and from different years of sampling along the hydrographic line. We then calculate the variability and error associated with the use of different proxy coefficients, the sensitivity to reference values and the inclusion of additional variables. We demonstrate how this variability affects estimates of the intensity and duration of exposure to aragonite corrosive conditions on the near-shore shelf and in the water column.

Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerley, Duncan; Reeves, Jessica; Barr, Cameron; Bostock, Helen; Fitzsimmons, Kathryn; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Gouramanis, Chris; McGregor, Helen; Mooney, Scott; Phipps, Steven J.; Tibby, John; Tyler, Jonathan

2017-11-01

This study uses the simplified patterns of temperature and effective precipitation approach from the Australian component of the international palaeoclimate synthesis effort (INTegration of Ice core, MArine and TErrestrial records - OZ-INTIMATE) to compare atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations and proxy reconstructions. The approach is used in order to identify important properties (e.g. circulation and precipitation) of past climatic states from the models and proxies, which is a primary objective of the Southern Hemisphere Assessment of PalaeoEnvironment (SHAPE) initiative. The AOGCM data are taken from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) mid-Holocene (ca. 6000 years before present, 6 ka) and pre-industrial control (ca. 1750 CE, 0 ka) experiments. The synthesis presented here shows that the models and proxies agree on the differences in climate state for 6 ka relative to 0 ka, when they are insolation driven. The largest uncertainty between the models and the proxies occurs over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP). The analysis shows that the lower temperatures in the Pacific at around 6 ka in the models may be the result of an enhancement of an existing systematic error. It is therefore difficult to decipher which one of the proxies and/or the models is correct. This study also shows that a reduction in the Equator-to-pole temperature difference in the Southern Hemisphere causes the mid-latitude westerly wind strength to reduce in the models; however, the simulated rainfall actually increases over the southern temperate zone of Australia as a result of higher convective precipitation. Such a mechanism (increased convection) may be useful for resolving disparities between different regional proxy records and model simulations. Finally, after assessing the available datasets (model and proxy), opportunities for better model-proxy integrated research are discussed.

A review of the South American monsoon history as recorded in stable isotopic proxies over the past two millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuille, M.; Burns, S. J.; Taylor, B. L.; Cruz, F. W.; Bird, B. W.; Abbott, M. B.; Kanner, L. C.; Cheng, H.; Novello, V. F.

2012-08-01

We review the history of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) over the past ~2000 yr based on high-resolution stable isotope proxies from speleothems, ice cores and lake sediments. Our review is complemented by an analysis of an isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) for the past 130 yr. Proxy records from the monsoon belt in the tropical Andes and SE Brazil show a very coherent behavior over the past 2 millennia with significant decadal to multidecadal variability superimposed on large excursions during three key periods: the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warm period (CWP). We interpret these three periods as times when the SASM's mean state was significantly weakened (MCA and CWP) and strengthened (LIA), respectively. During the LIA each of the proxy archives considered contains the most negative δ18O values recorded during the entire record length. On the other hand, the monsoon strength is currently rather weak in a 2000-yr historical perspective, rivaled only by the low intensity during the MCA. Our climatic interpretation of these archives is consistent with our isotope-based GCM analysis, which suggests that these sites are sensitive recorders of large-scale monsoon variations. We hypothesize that these centennial-scale climate anomalies were at least partially driven by temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular over the North Atlantic, leading to a latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ and a change in monsoon intensity (amount of rainfall upstream over the Amazon Basin). This interpretation is supported by several independent records from different proxy archives and modeling studies. Although ENSO is the main forcing for δ18O variability over tropical South America on interannual time scales, our results suggest that its influence may be significantly modulated by North Atlantic climate variability on longer time scales. Finally, our analyses indicate that isotopic proxies, because of their ability to integrate climatic information on large spatial scales, could complement more traditional proxies such as tree rings or documentary evidence. Future climate reconstruction efforts could potentially benefit from including isotopic proxies as large-scale predictors in order to better constrain past changes in the atmospheric circulation.

Groundwater Change in Storage Estimation by Using Monitoring Wells Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores, C. I.

2016-12-01

In present times, remarkable attention is being given to models and data in hydrology, regarding their role in meeting water management requirements to enable well-informed decisions. Water management under the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is currently challenging, due to it requires that groundwater sustainability agencies (GSAs) formulate groundwater sustainability plans (GSPs) to comply with new regulations and perform a responsible management to secure California's groundwater resources, particularly when droughts and climate change conditions are present. In this scenario, water budgets and change in groundwater storage estimations are key components for decision makers, but their computation is often difficult, lengthy and uncertain. Therefore, this work presents an innovative approach to integrate hydrologic modeling and available groundwater data into a single simplified tool, a proxy function, that estimate in real time the change in storage based on monitoring wells data. A hydrologic model was developed and calibrated for water years 1970 to 2015, the Yolo County IWFM, which was applied to generate the proxy as a study case, by regressing simulated change in storage versus change in head for the cities of Davis and Woodland area, and obtain a linear function dependent on heads variations over time. Later, the proxy was applied to actual groundwater data in this region to predict the change in storage. Results from this work provide proxy functions to approximate change in storage based on monitoring data for daily, monthly and yearly frameworks, being as well easily transferable to any spreadsheet or database to perform simply yet crucial computations in real time for sustainable groundwater management.

Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hydro2k Consortium, Pages

2017-12-01

Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.

Comparing Proxy and Model Estimates of Hydroclimate Variability and Change over the Common Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smerdon, Jason E.; Luterbacher, Jurg; Phipps, Steven J.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Ault, Toby; Coats, Sloan; Cobb, Kim M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Colose, Chris; Felis, Thomas;

Improving age-depth models using sedimentary proxies for accumulation rates in fluvio-lacustrine deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minderhoud, Philip S. J.; Cohen, Kim M.; Toonen, Willem. H. J.; Erkens, Gilles; Hoek, Wim Z.

2017-04-01

Lacustrine fills, including those of oxbow lakes in river floodplains, often hold valuable sedimentary and biological proxy records of palaeo-environmental change. Precise dating of accumulated sediments at levels throughout these records is crucial for interpretation and correlation of (proxy) data existing within the fills. Typically, dates are gathered from multiple sampled levels and their results are combined in age-depth models to estimate the ages of events identified between the datings. In this paper, a method of age-depth modelling is presented that varies the vertical accumulation rate of the lake fill based on continuous sedimentary data. In between Bayesian calibrated radiocarbon dates, this produces a modified non-linear age-depth relation based on sedimentology rather than linear or spline interpolation. The method is showcased on a core of an infilled palaeomeander at the floodplain edge of the river Rhine near Rheinberg (Germany). The sequence spans from 4.7 to 2.9 ka cal BP and consists of 5.5 meters of laminated lacustrine, organo-clastic mud, covered by 1 meter of peaty clay. Four radiocarbon dates provide direct dating control, mapping and dating in the wider surroundings provide additional control. The laminated, organo-clastic facies of the oxbow fill contains a record of nearby fluvial-geomorphological activity, including meander reconfiguration events and passage of rare large floods, recognized as fluctuations in coarseness and amount of allochthonous clastic sediment input. Continuous along-core sampling and measurement of loss-on-ignition (LOI) provided a fast way of expressing the variation in clastic sedimentation influx from the nearby river versus autochthonous organic deposition derived from biogenic production in the lake itself. This low-cost sedimentary proxy data feeds into the age-depth modelling. The sedimentology-modelled age-depth relation (re)produces the distinct lithological boundaries in the fill as marked changes in sedimentation rate. Especially the organo-clastic muddy facies subdivides in centennial intervals of relative faster and slower accumulation. For such intervals, sedimentation rates are produced that deviate 10 to 20% from that in simpler stepped linear age-models. For irregularly laminated muddy intervals of the oxbow fill - from which meaningful sampling for radiocarbon dating is more difficult than from peaty or slowly accumulating organic lake sediments - supplementing spotty radiocarbon sampling with continuous sedimentary proxy data creates more realistic age-depth modelling results.

Growth rates and geochemical proxies in Late Campanian bivalves - New insights from micro-X-ray Fluorescence mapping and numerical growth modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Winter, Niels; Goderis, Steven; van Malderen, Stijn; Vanhaecke, Frank; Claeys, Philippe

2017-04-01

Understanding the Late Cretaceous greenhouse climate is of vital importance for understanding present and future climate change. While a lot of good work has been done to reconstruct climate in this interesting period, most paleoclimatic studies have focused on long-term climate change[1]. Alternatively, multi-proxy records from marine bivalves provide us with a unique opportunity to study past climate on a seasonal scale. However, previous fossil bivalve studies have reported ambiguous results with regard to the interpretation of trace element and stable isotope proxies in marine bivalve shells[2]. One major problem in the interpretation of such records is the bivalve's vital effect and the occurrence of disequilibrium fractionation during bivalve growth. Both these problems are linked to the annual growth cycle of marine bivalves, which introduces internal effects on the incorporation of isotopes and trace elements into the shell[3]. Understanding this growth cycle in extinct bivalves is therefore of great importance for the interpretation of seasonal proxy records in their shells. In this study, three different species of extinct Late Campanian bivalves (two rudist species and one oyster species) that were found in the same stratigraphic interval are studied. Micro-X-Ray Fluorescence line scanning and mapping of trace elements such as Mg, Sr, S and Zn, calibrated by LA-ICP-MS measurements, is combined with microdrilled stable carbon and oxygen isotope analysis on the well-preserved part of the shells. Data of this multi-proxy study is compared with results from a numerical growth model written in the open-source statistics package R[4] and based on annual growth increments observed in the shells and shell thickness. This growth model is used together with proxy data to reconstruct rates of trace element incorporation into the shell and to calculate the mass balance of stable oxygen and carbon isotopes. In order to achieve this goal, 2D mapping of bivalve shell surfaces is combined with high-precision point measurements and linescans to characterize different carbonate facies within the shell and to model changes in proxy data in three dimensions. Comparison of sub-annual variations in growth rate and shell geometry with proxy data sheds light on the degree to which observed seasonal variations in geochemical proxies are dependent on internal mechanisms of shell growth as opposed to external mechanisms such as climatic and environmental change. The use of three different species of bivalve from the same paleoenvironment allows the examination of species-specific responses to environmental change. This study attempts to determine which proxies in which species of bivalve are suitable for paleoenvironmental reconstruction and will aid future paleoseasonality studies in interpreting seasonally resolved multi-proxy records. References 1 DeConto R.M., et al. Cambridge University Press; 2000. 2 Elliot M, et al., PPP 2009. 3 Steuber T. Geology. 1996. 4 R core team, 2004, www.R-project.org

Soil carbon cycling proxies: Understanding their critical role in predicting climate change feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bailey, Vanessa L.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; DeAngelis, Kristen

The complexity of processes and interactions that drive soil C dynamics necessitate the use of proxy variables to represent soil characteristics that cannot be directly measured (correlative proxies), or that aggregate information about multiple soil characteristics into one variable (integrative proxies). These proxies have proven useful for understanding the soil C cycle, which is highly variable in both space and time, and are now being used to make predictions of the C fate and persistence under future climate scenarios. As these proxies are used at increasingly larger scales, the C pools and processes that proxies represent must be thoughtfully consideredmore » in order to minimize uncertainties in empirical understanding, as well as in model parameters and in model outcomes. The importance of these uncertainties is further amplified by the current need to make predictions of the C cycle for the non steady state environmental conditions resulting from global climate change. To clarify the appropriate uses of proxy variables, we provide specific examples of proxy variables that could improve decision making, adaptation choices, and modeling skill, while not foreclosing on – and also encouraging – continued work on their mechanistic underpinnings. We explore the use of three common soil proxies used to study soil organic matter: metabolic quotient, clay content, and physical fractionation. We also consider emerging data types, specifically genome-sequence data, and how these serve as proxies for microbial community activities. We opine that the demand for increasing mechanistic detail, and the flood of data from new imaging and genetic techniques, does not replace the value of correlative and integrative proxies--variables that are simpler, easier, or cheaper to measure. By closely examining the current knowledge gaps and broad assumptions in soil C cycling with the proxies already in use, we can develop new hypotheses and specify criteria for new and needed proxies.« less

Simulation Modeling and Analysis of Device-Aware Network Architectures

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-12-01

However, a potential issue lies in the location of the intermediate proxy with respect to the content servers; if the proxy is far away from the...to 11 guide the adaptation of content presented to that device [CC/PP, 2004]. The strength of CC/PP lies in its flexibility. CC/PP is based on RDF...from: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel4/98/15881/00736473.pdf. Accessed October 2004. [Hu and Bagga, 2004] Jianying Hu and Amit Bagga, “Categorizing

Bayesian hierarchical models for regional climate reconstructions of the last glacial maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitzel, Nils; Hense, Andreas; Ohlwein, Christian

2017-04-01

Spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate are important for the understanding of the long term behavior of the climate system and the sensitivity to forcing changes. Unfortunately, they are subject to large uncertainties, have to deal with a complex proxy-climate structure, and a physically reasonable interpolation between the sparse proxy observations is difficult. Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHMs) are a class of statistical models that is well suited for spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate because they permit the inclusion of multiple sources of information (e.g. records from different proxy types, uncertain age information, output from climate simulations) and quantify uncertainties in a statistically rigorous way. BHMs in paleoclimatology typically consist of three stages which are modeled individually and are combined using Bayesian inference techniques. The data stage models the proxy-climate relation (often named transfer function), the process stage models the spatio-temporal distribution of the climate variables of interest, and the prior stage consists of prior distributions of the model parameters. For our BHMs, we translate well-known proxy-climate transfer functions for pollen to a Bayesian framework. In addition, we can include Gaussian distributed local climate information from preprocessed proxy records. The process stage combines physically reasonable spatial structures from prior distributions with proxy records which leads to a multivariate posterior probability distribution for the reconstructed climate variables. The prior distributions that constrain the possible spatial structure of the climate variables are calculated from climate simulation output. We present results from pseudoproxy tests as well as new regional reconstructions of temperatures for the last glacial maximum (LGM, ˜ 21,000 years BP). These reconstructions combine proxy data syntheses with information from climate simulations for the LGM that were performed in the PMIP3 project. The proxy data syntheses consist either of raw pollen data or of normally distributed climate data from preprocessed proxy records. Future extensions of our method contain the inclusion of other proxy types (transfer functions), the implementation of other spatial interpolation techniques, the use of age uncertainties, and the extension to spatio-temporal reconstructions of the last deglaciation. Our work is part of the PalMod project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF).

A critical framework for the assessment of biological palaeoproxies: predicting past climate and levels of atmospheric CO(2) from fossil leaves.

PubMed

Jordan, Gregory J

2011-10-01

This review uses proxies of past temperature and atmospheric CO(2) composition based on fossil leaves to illustrate the uncertainties in biologically based proxies of past environments. Most leaf-based proxies are geographically local or genetically restricted and therefore can be confounded by evolution, extinction, changes in local environment or immigration of species. Stomatal frequency proxies illustrate how genetically restricted proxies can be particularly vulnerable to evolutionary change. High predictive power in the modern world resulting from the use of a very narrow calibration cannot be confidently extrapolated into the past (the Ginkgo paradox). Many foliar physiognomic proxies of climate are geographically local and use traits that are more or less fixed for individual species. Such proxies can therefore be confounded by floristic turnover and biome shifts in the region of calibration. Uncertainty in proxies tends to be greater for more ancient fossils. I present a set of questions that should be considered before using a proxy. Good proxies should be relatively protected from environmental and genetic change, particularly through having high information content and being founded on biomechanical or biochemical principles. Some current and potential developments are discussed, including those that involve more mechanistically sound proxies and better use of multivariate approaches. © 2011 The Author. New Phytologist © 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

A terrain-based site characterization map of California with implications for the contiguous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yong, Alan K.; Hough, Susan E.; Iwahashi, Junko; Braverman, Amy

2012-01-01

We present an approach based on geomorphometry to predict material properties and characterize site conditions using the VS30 parameter (time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity to a depth of 30 m). Our framework consists of an automated terrain classification scheme based on taxonomic criteria (slope gradient, local convexity, and surface texture) that systematically identifies 16 terrain types from 1‐km spatial resolution (30 arcsec) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation models (SRTM DEMs). Using 853 VS30 values from California, we apply a simulation‐based statistical method to determine the mean VS30 for each terrain type in California. We then compare the VS30 values with models based on individual proxies, such as mapped surface geology and topographic slope, and show that our systematic terrain‐based approach consistently performs better than semiempirical estimates based on individual proxies. To further evaluate our model, we apply our California‐based estimates to terrains of the contiguous United States. Comparisons of our estimates with 325 VS30 measurements outside of California, as well as estimates based on the topographic slope model, indicate our method to be statistically robust and more accurate. Our approach thus provides an objective and robust method for extending estimates of VS30 for regions where in situ measurements are sparse or not readily available.

77 FR 52616 - Connect America Fund

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-30

... combination of competitive bidding and a forward-looking cost model. The Commission observed that developing a new cost model and bidding mechanism could be expected to take some time. To spur broadband deployment... carriers using a formula to estimate wire center costs that was based on the prior high-cost proxy model. 3...

How Hot was Africa during the Mid-Holocene? Reexamining Africa's Thermal History via integrated Climate and Proxy System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.

2017-12-01

Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century. Reconstructions of African temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have made fundamental contributions to our understanding of past, present, and future climate and can help constrain predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). However, many of these reconstructions are based on proxies of lake temperature, so the confounding influences of lacustrine processes may complicate our interpretations of past changes in tropical climate. These proxy-specific uncertainties require robust methodology for data-model comparison. We develop a new proxy system model (PSM) for paleolimnology to facilitate data-model comparison and to fully characterize uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Output from GCMs are used to force the PSM to simulate lake temperature, hydrology, and associated proxy uncertainties. We compare reconstructed East African lake and air temperatures in individual records and in a stack of 9 lake records to those predicted by our PSM forced with Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) simulations, focusing on the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). We additionally employ single-forcing transient climate simulations from TraCE (10 kyr to 4 kyr B.P. and historical), as well as 200-yr time slice simulations from CESM1.0 to run the lake PSM. We test the sensitivity of African climate change during the mid-Holocene to orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice-sheet forcing in single-forcing simulations, and investigate dynamical hypotheses for these changes. Reconstructions of tropical African temperature indicate 1-2ºC warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the present, similar to changes predicted in the coming decades. However, most climate models underestimate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data (Fig. 1, 6kyr B.P.). We investigate this discrepancy using the new lake PSM and climate model simulations, with attention to the (potentially non-stationary) relationship between lake surface temperature and air temperature. The data-model comparison helps partition the impacts of lake-specific processes such as energy balance, mixing, sedimentation and bioturbation. We provide new insight into the patterns, amplitudes, sensitivity, and mechanisms of African temperature change.

Advancements in the use of speleothems as climate archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Corinne I.; Breecker, Daniel O.

2015-11-01

Speleothems have become a cornerstone of the approach to better understanding Earth's climatic teleconnections due to their precise absolute chronologies, their continuous or semicontinuous deposition and their global terrestrial distribution. We review the last decade of speleothem-related research, building off a similar review by McDermott (2004), in three themes - i) investigation of global teleconnections using speleothem-based climate reconstructions, ii) refinement of climate interpretations from speleothem proxies through cave monitoring, and iii) novel, technical methods of speleothem-based climate reconstructions. Speleothem records have enabled critical insight into the response of global hydroclimate to large climate changes. This includes the relevant forcings and sequence of climatic responses involved in glacial terminations and recognition of a global monsoon response to climate changes on orbital and millennial time scales. We review advancements in understanding of the processes that control speleothem δ13C values and introduce the idea of a direct atmospheric pCO2 influence. We discuss progress in understanding kinetic isotope fractionation, which, with further advances, may help quantify paleoclimate changes despite non-equilibrium formation of speleothems. This feeds into the potential of proxy system modeling to consider climatic, hydrological and biogeochemical processes with the objective of quantitatively interpreting speleothem proxies. Finally, we provide an overview of emerging speleothem proxies and novel approaches using existing proxies. Most recently, technical advancements made in the measurement of fluid inclusions are now yielding reliable determinations of paleotemperatures.

Water Isotope Proxy-Proxy and Proxy-Model Convergence for Late Pleistocene East Asian Monsoon Rainfall Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemens, S. C.; Holbourn, A.; Kubota, Y.; Lee, K. E.; Liu, Z.; Chen, G.

2017-12-01

Confidence in reconstruction of East Asian paleomonsoon rainfall using precipitation isotope proxies is a matter of considerable debate, largely due to the lack of correlation between precipitation amount and isotopic composition in the present climate. We present four new, very highly resolved records spanning the past 300,000 years ( 200 year sample spacing) from IODP Site U1429 in the East China Sea. We demonstrate that all the orbital- and millennial-scale variance in the onshore Yangtze River Valley speleothem δ18O record1 is also embedded in the offshore Site U1429 seawater δ18O record (derived from the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber and sea surface temperature reconstructions). Signal replication in these two independent terrestrial and marine archives, both controlled by the same monsoon system, uniquely identifies δ18O of precipitation as the primary driver of the precession-band variance in both records. This proxy-proxy convergence also eliminates a wide array of other drivers that have been called upon as potential contaminants to the precipitation δ18O signal recorded by these proxies. We compare East Asian precipitation isotope proxy records to precipitation amount from a CCSM3 transient climate model simulation of the past 300,000 years using realistic insolation, ice volume, greenhouse gasses, and sea level boundary conditions. This model-proxy comparison suggests that both Yangtze River Valley precipitation isotope proxies (seawater and speleothem δ18O) track changes in summer-monsoon rainfall amount at orbital time scales, as do precipitation isotope records from the Pearl River Valley2 (leaf wax δ2H) and Borneo3 (speleothem δ18O). Notably, these proxy records all have significantly different spectral structure indicating strongly regional rainfall patterns that are also consistent with model results. Transient, isotope-enabled model simulations will be necessary to more thoroughly evaluate these promising results, and to evaluate potentially distinct regional mechanisms linking rainfall amount to precipitation isotopes at orbital and millennial time scales in other monsoon regions. 1 Cheng et al., 10.1038/nature18591 2 Thomas et al., 10.1130/G36289.1 3 Carolin et al., 10.1016/j.epsl.2016.01.028

Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling.

PubMed

Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I; Whitlock, Cathy

2014-01-01

Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity.

Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling

PubMed Central

Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I.; Whitlock, Cathy

2015-01-01

Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity. PMID:25657652

Bridging the spectral divide: a case study with PAGES2k, the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble and proxy system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, F.; Emile-Geay, J.; Ault, T.; McKay, N.; Dee, S.

2017-12-01

A grand challenge for paleoclimatology is to constrain climate model behavior on timescales longer than the instrumental record. Of particular interest is the spectrum of temperature as sensed by climate proxies. The "continuum" of climate variability [Huybers & Curry, Nature 2006] is often characterized by its scaling exponent β , where the spectral density S and the frequency f satisfy the power law S ∝ f-β . Recent studies have voiced concern that climate models underestimate scaling behavior compared to proxies [Laepple & Huybers, PNAS 2014]. Part of this discrepancy is known to lie in the complex processes whereby proxies transform climate signals [Dee et al, EPSL in press], yet many questions remain open. Here we leverage a recent multiproxy compilation [PAGES 2k Consortium, Sci Data 2017] to characterize scaling behavior over the Common Era using an interpolation-free method [Kirchner & Neal, PNAS 2013]. Proxy spectra are compared to spectra derived from the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble [Otto-Bliesner et al, BAMS 2016], using: (a) a naive model where proxies are assumed linearly related to annual temperature vs (b) proxy system models [Evans et al, QSR 2013] of varying complexity. Scaling behavior varies considerably by archive: on average the strongest centennial slopes are observed for lake sediments (β =1.2), while the smallest are observed for glacier ice (β =0.24). Results confirm that the CESM Last Millennium simulation (LM) exhibits decadal-centennial scaling closer to proxy spectra than the pre-industrial control run (PI): the latter shows a "blue" spectrum (β <0), while the former and the proxies display redder spectra (β >0), suggesting that forcings are essential to reduce the spectral divide. Yet, even with forcings, LM spectra are flatter than the proxy spectra. Subsequent work will investigate the roles of seasonal sensitivity (trees, foraminifera, alkenones), multivariate influences (corals, trees), detrending (trees) and post-depositional processes (ice cores, lake & marine sediments) on spectral discrepancies, and clarify whether CESM's temperature spectra truly exhibit a scaling deficiency, or whether the spectral divide is an artifact of imperfect data-model comparisons using naive assumptions.

Investigating the Biosynthesis of Membrane-spanning Lipids Using Model Strains of Acidobacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, A. S.; Chubiz, L. M.

2016-12-01

Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), deriving from the membrane-spanning lipids of microbes, are detected in a wide range of environments including marine and lacustrine waters, sediments, and in terrestrial soils. In sediments and soils, ratios of various GDGT structures form the basis of the TEX86 proxy based on isoprenoidal GDGTs derived from archaea, and the MBT/CBT proxy based on bacterial-derived branched GDGTs (brGDGTs), which is influenced by both temperature and pH. While the relationships of the proxy values to environmental variables have been empirically calibrated, much uncertainty remains in understanding genetic and physiological factors that affect the production of these lipid structures by microbes. In this study we compare two model bacterial strains - Edaphobacter aggregans WGB-1 , which has been previously demonstrated to produce brGDGTs (Damsté et al 2011) and Edaphobacter modestus JBG-1 (a non-brGDGT producer) to gain traction into understanding brGDGT production. We have sequenced each genome, facilitating comparisons that can be used to computationally generate hypotheses for genes involved in brGDGT biosynthesis. We will also report the results of initial experiments conducted to understand how the lipid profiles of each strain vary as a function of growth phase. Through a combination of genetic approaches and physiolotical experiments, we aim to bring new understanding to brGDGTs and how proxies derived from these lipids relate to environmental variables. Damsté et al. 2011 AEM 77: 4147

Comment on "Advective transport in heterogeneous aquifers: Are proxy models predictive?" by A. Fiori, A. Zarlenga, H. Gotovac, I. Jankovic, E. Volpi, V. Cvetkovic, and G. Dagan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuman, Shlomo P.

2016-07-01

Fiori et al. (2015) examine the predictive capabilities of (among others) two "proxy" non-Fickian transport models, MRMT (Multi-Rate Mass Transfer) and CTRW (Continuous-Time Random Walk). In particular, they compare proxy model predictions of mean breakthrough curves (BTCs) at a sequence of control planes with near-ergodic BTCs generated through two- and three-dimensional simulations of nonreactive, mean-uniform advective transport in single realizations of stationary, randomly heterogeneous porous media. The authors find fitted proxy model parameters to be nonunique and devoid of clear physical meaning. This notwithstanding, they conclude optimistically that "i. Fitting the proxy models to match the BTC at [one control plane] automatically ensures prediction at downstream control planes [and thus] ii. … the measured BTC can be used directly for prediction, with no need to use models underlain by fitting." I show that (a) the authors' findings follow directly from (and thus confirm) theoretical considerations discussed earlier by Neuman and Tartakovsky (2009), which (b) additionally demonstrate that proxy models will lack similar predictive capabilities under more realistic, non-Markovian flow and transport conditions that prevail under flow through nonstationary (e.g., multiscale) media in the presence of boundaries and/or nonuniformly distributed sources, and/or when flow/transport are conditioned on measurements.

Forecasting Lightning Threat Using WRF Proxy Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, E. W., Jr.

2010-01-01

Objectives: Given that high-resolution WRF forecasts can capture the character of convective outbreaks, we seek to: 1. Create WRF forecasts of LTG threat (1-24 h), based on 2 proxy fields from explicitly simulated convection: - graupel flux near -15 C (captures LTG time variability) - vertically integrated ice (captures LTG threat area). 2. Calibrate each threat to yield accurate quantitative peak flash rate densities. 3. Also evaluate threats for areal coverage, time variability. 4. Blend threats to optimize results. 5. Examine sensitivity to model mesh, microphysics. Methods: 1. Use high-resolution 2-km WRF simulations to prognose convection for a diverse series of selected case studies. 2. Evaluate graupel fluxes; vertically integrated ice (VII). 3. Calibrate WRF LTG proxies using peak total LTG flash rate densities from NALMA; relationships look linear, with regression line passing through origin. 4. Truncate low threat values to make threat areal coverage match NALMA flash extent density obs. 5. Blend proxies to achieve optimal performance 6. Study CAPS 4-km ensembles to evaluate sensitivities.

SINOMA - A new iterative statistical approach for the identification of linear relationships between noisy time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thees, Barnim; Buras, Allan; Jetschke, Gottfried; Kutzbach, Lars; Zorita, Eduardo; Wilmking, Martin

2014-05-01

In paleoclimatology, reconstructions of environmental conditions play a significant role. Such reconstructions rely on the relationship between proxies (e.g. tree-rings, lake sediments) and the processes which are to be reconstructed (e.g. temperature, precipitation, solar activity). However, both of these variable types in general are noisy. For instance, ring-width is only a proxy for tree growth and further determined by several other environmental signals (e.g. precipitation, length of growing season, competition). On the other hand, records of process data that are to be reconstructed are mostly available for too short periods (too short in terms of calibration) at the particular site at which the proxy data have been sampled. The resulting 'spatial' noise (e.g. by using climate station data not situated at the proxy site) causes additional errors in the relationship between measured proxy data and available process data (e.g. Kutzbach et al., 2011). If deriving models from such noisy data, Thees et al. (2009) and Kutzbach et al. (2011) could show (amongst others), that model slopes (the factor with which the one variable is multiplied to predict the other variable) in most cases are misestimated - depending on the ratio of the variances of the respective variable noises. Despite these facts, many recent reconstructions are based on ordinary least squares regressions, which underestimate model slopes as they do not account for the noise in the predictor variable (Kutzbach et al., 2011). This is because there yet only are few methodological approaches available to treat noisy data in terms of modeling, and for those methods additional information (e.g. a good estimate of the error noise ratio) which often is impossible to acquire is needed. Here we introduce the Sequential Iterative NOise Matching Algorithm - SINOMA - with which we are able to derive good estimates for model slopes between noisy time series. The mathematical background of SINOMA is described accompanied by a successful application to a pseudo-proxy dataset of which the error noise conditions and true model parameters are known. Further examples on its successful application are intended for presentation in another contribution to this EGU session (Buras et al., 2014) which aims at representing SINOMAs range of applicability rather than its theoretical background which is the focus of the herewith submitted contribution. Given the features of yet published paleoclimatological reconstructions (mostly ordinary least squares regression) and the generally noisy characteristics of process and proxy data, SINOMA has the potential to change our understanding of past climate variability. This is because the magnitude of amplitudes in reconstructed climate parameters may change significantly as soon as comparably precise slope estimates (as acquired by SINOMA) are used for reconstructions. Therefore, SINOMA has the potential to reframe our picture of the past. References Kutzbach, L., Thees, B., and Wilmking, M., 2011: Identification of linear relationships from noisy data using errors-in-variables models - relevance for reconstruction of past climate from tree-ring and other proxy information. Climatic Change 105, 155-177. Thees, B., Kutzbach, L., Wilmking, M., Zorita, E., 2009: Ein Bewertungsmaß für die amplitudentreue regressive Abbildung von verrauschten Daten im Rahmen einer iterativen "Errors in Variables" Modellierung (EVM). GKSS Reports 2009/8. GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Geesthacht, Germany, 20 pp (in German) Allan Buras, Barnim Thees, Markus Czymzik, Nadine Dräger, Ulrike Kienel, Ina Neugebauer, Florian Ott, Tobias Scharnweber, Sonia Simard, Michal Slowinski, Sandra Slowinski, Izabela Zawiska, and Martin Wilmking, 2014: SINOMA - a better tool for proxy based reconstructions? Abstract submitted to EGU-session CL 6.1.

The Relationship Between the Zonal Mean ITCZ and Regional Precipitation during the mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niezgoda, K.; Noone, D.; Konecky, B.

2017-12-01

Characteristics of the zonal mean Tropical Rain Belt (TRB, i.e. the ITCZ + the land-based monsoons) are often inferred from individual proxy records of precipitation or other hydroclimatic variables. However, these inferences can be misleading. Here, an isotope-enabled climate model simulation is used to evaluate metrics of the zonal mean ITCZ vs. regional hydrological characteristics during the mid-Holocene (MH, 6 kya). The MH provides a unique perspective on the relationship between the ITCZ and regional hydrology because of large, orbitally-driven shifts in tropical precipitation as well as a critical mass of proxy records. By using a climate model with simulated water isotopes, characteristics of atmospheric circulation and water transport processes can be inferred, and comparison with isotope proxies can be made more directly. We find that estimations of the zonal-mean ITCZ are insufficient for evaluating regional responses of hydrological cycles to forcing changes. For example, one approximation of a 1.5-degree northward shift in the zonal-mean ITCZ position during the MH corresponded well with northward shifts in maximum rainfall in tropical Africa, but did not match southward shifts in the tropical Pacific or longitudinal shifts in the Indian monsoon region. In many regions, the spatial distribution of water vapor isotopes suggests that changes in moisture source and atmospheric circulation were a greater influence on precipitation distribution, intensity, and isotope ratio than the average northward shift in ITCZ latitude. These findings reinforce the idea that using tropical hydrological proxy records to infer zonal-mean characteristics of the ITCZ may be misleading. Rather, tropical proxy records of precipitation, particularly those that record precipitation isotopes, serve as a guideline for regional hydrological changes while model simulations can put them in the context of zonal mean tropical convergence.

Fossil bryophytes as recorders of ancient CO2 levels: Experimental evidence and a Cretaceous case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, Benjamin J.; Beerling, David J.; Brentnall, Stuart J.; Royer, Dana L.

2005-09-01

Biological and geochemical CO2 proxies provide critical constraints on understanding the role of atmospheric CO2 in driving climate change during Earth history. As no single existing CO2 proxy is without its limitations, there is a clear need for new approaches to reconstructing past CO2 concentrations. Here we develop a new pre-Quaternary CO2 proxy based on the stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of astomatous land plants. In a series of CO2-controlled laboratory experiments, we show that the carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) of a range of bryophyte (liverwort and moss) species increases with atmospheric CO2 across the range 375 to 6000 ppm. Separate experiments establish that variations in growth temperature, water content and substrate type have minor impacts on the Δ13C of liverworts but not mosses, indicating the greater potential of liverworts to faithfully record past variations in CO2. A mechanistic model for calculating past CO2 concentrations from bryophyte Δ13C (White et al., 1994) is extended and calibrated using our experimental results. The potential for fossil liverworts to record past CO2 changes is investigated by analyzing the δ13C of specimens collected from Alexander Island, Antarctica dating to the "greenhouse" world of the mid-Cretaceous. Our analysis and isotopic model yield mid-Cretaceous CO2 concentrations of 1000-1400 ppm, in general agreement with independent proxy data and long-term carbon cycle models. The exceptionally long evolutionary history of bryophytes offers the possibility of reconstructing CO2 concentrations back to the mid-Ordovician, pre-dating all currently used quantitative CO2 proxies.

A TEX86 surface sediment database and extended Bayesian calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tierney, Jessica E.; Tingley, Martin P.

2015-06-01

Quantitative estimates of past temperature changes are a cornerstone of paleoclimatology. For a number of marine sediment-based proxies, the accuracy and precision of past temperature reconstructions depends on a spatial calibration of modern surface sediment measurements to overlying water temperatures. Here, we present a database of 1095 surface sediment measurements of TEX86, a temperature proxy based on the relative cyclization of marine archaeal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) lipids. The dataset is archived in a machine-readable format with geospatial information, fractional abundances of lipids (if available), and metadata. We use this new database to update surface and subsurface temperature calibration models for TEX86 and demonstrate the applicability of the TEX86 proxy to past temperature prediction. The TEX86 database confirms that surface sediment GDGT distribution has a strong relationship to temperature, which accounts for over 70% of the variance in the data. Future efforts, made possible by the data presented here, will seek to identify variables with secondary relationships to GDGT distributions, such as archaeal community composition.

Developing ISM Dust Grain Models with Precision Elemental Abundances from IXO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valencic, L. A.; Smith, R. K.; Juet, A.

2009-01-01

The exact nature of interstellar dust grains in the Galaxy remains mysterious, despite their ubiquity. Many viable models exist, based on available IR-UV data and assumed elemental abundances. However, the abundances, which are perhaps the most stringent constraint, are not well known: modelers must use proxies in the absence of direct measurements for the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM). Recent revisions of these proxy values have only added to confusion over which is the best representative for the diffuse ISM, and highlighted the need for direct, high signal-to-noise measurements from the ISM itself. The International X-ray Observatory's superior facilities will enable high-precision elemental abundance measurements. We ill show how these results will measure both the overall ISM abundances and challenge dust models, allowing us to construct a more realistic picture of the ISM.

Modeling 13.3nm Fe XXIII Flare Emissions Using the GOES-R EXIS Instrument

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rook, H.; Thiemann, E.

2017-12-01

The solar EUV spectrum is dominated by atomic transitions in ionized atoms in the solar atmosphere. As solar flares evolve, plasma temperatures and densities change, influencing abundances of various ions, changing intensities of different EUV wavelengths observed from the sun. Quantifying solar flare spectral irradiance is important for constraining models of Earth's atmosphere, improving communications quality, and controlling satellite navigation. However, high time cadence measurements of flare irradiance across the entire EUV spectrum were not available prior to the launch of SDO. The EVE MEGS-A instrument aboard SDO collected 0.1nm EUV spectrum data from 2010 until 2014, when the instrument failed. No current or future instrument is capable of similar high resolution and time cadence EUV observation. This necessitates a full EUV spectrum model to study EUV phenomena at Earth. It has been recently demonstrated that one hot flare EUV line, such as the 13.3nm Fe XXIII line, can be used to model cooler flare EUV line emissions, filling the role of MEGS-A. Since unblended measurements of Fe XXIII are typically unavailable, a proxy for the Fe XXIII line must be found. In this study, we construct two models of this line, first using the GOES 0.1-0.8nm soft x-ray (SXR) channel as the Fe XXIII proxy, and second using a physics-based model dependent on GOES emission measure and temperature data. We determine that the more sophisticated physics-based model shows better agreement with Fe XXIII measurements, although the simple proxy model also performs well. We also conclude that the high correlation between Fe XXIII emissions and the GOES 0.1-0.8nm band is because both emissions tend to peak near the GOES emission measure peak despite large differences in their contribution functions.

Effects of macroeconomic conditions on health in Brazil.

PubMed

Jacinto, Paulo de Andrade; Tejada, César Augusto Oviedo; Sousa, Tanara Rosângela Vieira de

2010-04-01

To analyze the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health in Brazil. The analysis of the impact of employment and income on mortality in Brazil was based on panel data from Brazilian states between 1981 and 2002. Mortality rates obtained from the national mortality database was used as a proxy for health status, whereas the variables employment, income, and illiteracy rates were used as proxies for macroeconomic and socioeconomic conditions. Static and dynamic models were applied for the analysis of two hypotheses: a) there is a positive relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Ruhm; b) there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Brenner. There was found a negative relationship between mortality rates (proxy for health) and macroeconomic conditions (measured by employment rate). The estimates indicated that the overall mortality rate was higher during economic recession, suggesting that as macroeconomic conditions improved, increasing employment rates, there was a decrease in the mortality rate. The estimate for the relationship between illiteracy (proxy for education level) and mortality rate showed that higher levels of education can improve health. The results from the static and dynamic models support Brenner's hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and macroeconomic conditions.

A pedigree-based proxy measure of genetic predisposition of drinking and alcohol use among female sex workers in China: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Zhang, Chen; Li, Xiaoming; Liu, Yu; Qiao, Shan; Su, Shaobing; Zhang, Liying; Zhou, Yuejiao

2017-02-01

Scientific evidence has suggested that genetic factors accounted for more than half of the vulnerability of developing alcohol use problems. However, collecting genetic data poses a significant challenge for most population-based behavioral studies. The aim of this study was to assess the utilities of a pedigree-based proxy measure of genetic predisposition of drinking (GPD) and its effect on alcohol use behaviors as well as its interactions with personal and environmental factors. In the current study, cross-sectional data were collected from 700 female sex workers (FSW) in Guangxi, China. Participants provided information on a pedigree-based proxy measure of GPD and their alcohol use behaviors. Chi-square and independent t-test was applied for examining the bivariate associations between GPD and alcohol use behaviors; multivariate and ordinal regression models were used to examine the effect of GPD on alcohol use. This study found that women with a higher composite score of GPD tended to have a higher risk of alcohol use problem compared to their counterparts (p < .05). GPD was a significant predictor of alcohol use problems (p < .05), especially among women who had mental health issues or lack of health cares. The pedigree-based measure provided a useful proxy of GPD among participants. Both FSW's mental health and health care access interact with GPD and affect their drinking patterns. By understanding the genetic basis of alcohol use, we can develop scalable and efficacious interventions that will take into consideration the individual risk profile and environmental influences.

Remote Patron Validation: Posting a Proxy Server at the Digital Doorway.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Webster, Peter

2002-01-01

Discussion of remote access to library services focuses on proxy servers as a method for remote access, based on experiences at Saint Mary's University (Halifax). Topics include Internet protocol user validation; browser-directed proxies; server software proxies; vendor alternatives for validating remote users; and Internet security issues. (LRW)

Computing the Local Field Potential (LFP) from Integrate-and-Fire Network Models

PubMed Central

Cuntz, Hermann; Lansner, Anders; Panzeri, Stefano; Einevoll, Gaute T.

2015-01-01

Leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) network models are commonly used to study how the spiking dynamics of neural networks changes with stimuli, tasks or dynamic network states. However, neurophysiological studies in vivo often rather measure the mass activity of neuronal microcircuits with the local field potential (LFP). Given that LFPs are generated by spatially separated currents across the neuronal membrane, they cannot be computed directly from quantities defined in models of point-like LIF neurons. Here, we explore the best approximation for predicting the LFP based on standard output from point-neuron LIF networks. To search for this best “LFP proxy”, we compared LFP predictions from candidate proxies based on LIF network output (e.g, firing rates, membrane potentials, synaptic currents) with “ground-truth” LFP obtained when the LIF network synaptic input currents were injected into an analogous three-dimensional (3D) network model of multi-compartmental neurons with realistic morphology, spatial distributions of somata and synapses. We found that a specific fixed linear combination of the LIF synaptic currents provided an accurate LFP proxy, accounting for most of the variance of the LFP time course observed in the 3D network for all recording locations. This proxy performed well over a broad set of conditions, including substantial variations of the neuronal morphologies. Our results provide a simple formula for estimating the time course of the LFP from LIF network simulations in cases where a single pyramidal population dominates the LFP generation, and thereby facilitate quantitative comparison between computational models and experimental LFP recordings in vivo. PMID:26657024

Eight proxy indices of solar activity for the International Reference Ionosphere and Plasmasphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyaeva, T. L.; Arikan, F.; Sezen, U.; Poustovalova, L. V.

2018-07-01

In view of the recent recalibration of the sunspot number time series SSN2, a need has arisen to re-evaluate solar and ionospheric indices in the International Reference Ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to the Plasmasphere, IRI-Plas models, which are developed using the predecessor SSN1 index. To improve efficiency of the model, eight solar proxy indices are introduced in IRI-Plas system: the daily measured solar emissions, the Ottawa 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 and the H Lyman-α line at 121.6 nm; the core-to-wing ratio of the magnesium ion h and k lines at 279.56 and 280.27 nm, MgII index; sunspot number SSN1 observed before 05.2015 and modelled afterwards; re-calibrated SSN2 sunspots time series; the ionosonde foF2-based global IG-index and the Global Electron Content, GEC, index, the new ionospheric TEC-noon index based on GPS-derived Total Electron Content measurements at 288 IGS stations for 1994-2018. The regression relations are deduced between the different solar and ionospheric proxy indices smoothed by 12-month sliding window. The IG, TEC and GEC saturation or amplification effect is observed towards the solar maximum. The SSN1 and F10.7 data serve as a default IRI-Plas input while the rest indices are scaled to SSN1 units envisaged by the F2 layer peak maps. Relevant subroutines are incorporated in IRI-Plas system for automatic conversion of user's predefined index to other related indices which are applied by the different model procedures.

Atmospheric constituents and surface-level UVB: Implications for a paleoaltimetry proxy and attempts to reconstruct UV exposure during volcanic episodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Brian C.; Goracke, Byron D.; Dalton, Sean M.

2016-11-01

Chemical and morphological features of spores and pollens have been linked to changes in solar ultraviolet radiation (specifically UVB, 280-315 nm) at Earth's surface. Variation in UVB exposure as inferred from these features has been suggested as a proxy for paleoaltitude; such proxies are important in understanding the uplift history of high altitude plateaus, which in turn is important for testing models of the tectonic processes responsible for such uplift. While UVB irradiance does increase with altitude above sea level, a number of other factors affect the irradiance at any given place and time. In this modeling study we use the TUV atmospheric radiative transfer model to investigate dependence of surface-level UVB irradiance and relative biological impact on a number of constituents in Earth's atmosphere that are variable over long and short time periods. We consider changes in O3 column density, and SO2 and sulfate aerosols due to periods of volcanic activity, including that associated with the formation of the Siberian Traps. We find that UVB irradiance may be highly variable under volcanic conditions and variations in several of these atmospheric constituents can easily mimic or overwhelm changes in UVB irradiance due to changes in altitude. On the other hand, we find that relative change with altitude is not very sensitive to different sets of atmospheric conditions. Any paleoaltitude proxy based on UVB exposure requires confidence that the samples under comparison were located at roughly the same latitude, under very similar O3 and SO2 columns, with similar atmospheric aerosol conditions. In general, accurate estimates of the surface-level UVB exposure at any time and location require detailed radiative transfer modeling taking into account a number of atmospheric factors; this result is important for paleoaltitude proxies as well as attempts to reconstruct the UV environment through geologic time and to tie extinctions, such as the end-Permian mass extinction, to UVB irradiance changes.

Performance of Solar Proxy Options of IRI-Plas Model for Equinox Seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sezen, Umut; Gulyaeva, Tamara L.; Arikan, Feza

2018-02-01

International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) is the most acclaimed climatic model of the ionosphere. Since 2009, the range of the IRI model has been extended to the Global Positioning System (GPS) orbital height of 20,000 km in the plasmasphere. The new model, which is called IRI extended to Plasmasphere (IRI-Plas), can input not only the ionosonde foF2 and hmF2 but also the GPS-total electron content (TEC). IRI-Plas has been provided at www.ionolab.org, where online computation of ionospheric parameters is accomplished through a user-friendly interface. The solar proxies that are available in IRI-Plas can be listed as sunspot number (SSN1), SSN2, F10.7, global electron content (GEC), TEC, IG, Mg II, Lyman-α, and GEC_RZ. In this study, ionosonde foF2 data are compared with IRI-Plas foF2 values with the Consultative Committee International Radio (CCIR) and International Union of Radio Science (URSI) model choices for each solar proxy, with or without the GPS-TEC input for the equinox months of October 2011 and March 2015. It has been observed that the best fitting model choices in Root Mean Square (RMS) and Normalized RMS (NRMS) sense are the Jet Propulsion Laboratory global ionospheric maps-TEC input with Lyman-α solar proxy option for both months. The input of TEC definitely lowers the difference between the model and ionosonde foF2 values. The IG and Mg II solar proxies produce similar model foF2 values, and they usually are the second and third best fits to the ionosonde foF2 for the midlatitude ionosphere. In high-latitude regions, Jet Propulsion Laboratory global ionospheric map-TEC inputs to IRI-Plas with Lyman-α, GEC_RZ, and TEC solar proxies are the best choices. In equatorial region, the best fitting solar proxies are IG, Lyman-α, and Mg II.

A study on assimilating potential vorticity data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yong; Ménard, Richard; Riishøjgaard, Lars Peter; Cohn, Stephen E.; Rood, Richard B.

1998-08-01

The correlation that exists between the potential vorticity (PV) field and the distribution of chemical tracers such as ozone suggests the possibility of using tracer observations as proxy PV data in atmospheric data assimilation systems. Especially in the stratosphere, there are plentiful tracer observations but a general lack of reliable wind observations, and the correlation is most pronounced. The issue investigated in this study is how model dynamics would respond to the assimilation of PV data. First, numerical experiments of identical-twin type were conducted with a simple univariate nuding algorithm and a global shallow water model based on PV and divergence (PV-D model). All model fields are successfully reconstructed through the insertion of complete PV data alone if an appropriate value for the nudging coefficient is used. A simple linear analysis suggests that slow modes are recovered rapidly, at a rate nearly independent of spatial scale. In a more realistic experiment, appropriately scaled total ozone data from the NIMBUS-7 TOMS instrument were assimilated as proxy PV data into the PV-D model over a 10-day period. The resulting model PV field matches the observed total ozone field relatively well on large spatial scales, and the PV, geopotential and divergence fields are dynamically consistent. These results indicate the potential usefulness that tracer observations, as proxy PV data, may offer in a data assimilation system.

Ionosphere-thermosphere energy budgets for the ICME storms of March 2013 and 2015 estimated with GITM and observational proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Meng, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Lu, G.

2017-09-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) energy partitioning for the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) storms of 16-19 March 2013 and 2015 is estimated with the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM), empirical models and proxies derived from in situ measurements. We focus on auroral heating, Joule heating, and thermospheric cooling. Solar wind data, F10.7, OVATION Prime model and the Weimer 2005 model are used to drive GITM from above. Thermospheric nitric oxide and carbon dioxide cooling emission powers and fluxes are estimated from TIMED/SABER measurements. Assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) estimations of hemispheric power and Joule heating are presented, based on data from global magnetometers, the AMPERE magnetic field data, SSUSI auroral images, and the SuperDARN radar network. Modeled Joule heating and auroral heating of the IT system are mostly controlled by external driving in the March 2013 and 2015 storms, while NO cooling persists into the storm recovery phase. The total heating in the model is about 1000 GW to 3000 GW. Additionally, we intercompare contributions in selected energy channels for five coronal mass ejection-type storms modeled with GITM. Modeled auroral heating shows reasonable agreement with AMIE hemispheric power and is higher than other observational proxies. Joule heating and infrared cooling are likely underestimated in GITM. We discuss challenges and discrepancies in estimating and global modeling of the IT energy partitioning, especially Joule heating, during geomagnetic storms.

Eocene Paleoclimate: Incredible or Uncredible? Model data syntheses raise questions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, M.

2012-04-01

Reconstructions of Eocene paleoclimate have pushed on the boundaries of climate dynamics theory for generations. While significant improvements in theory and models have brought them closer to the proxy data, the data themselves have shifted considerably. Tropical temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations are now reconstructed to be higher than once thought--in agreement with models--but, many polar temperature reconstructions are even warmer than the eye popping numbers from only a decade ago. These interpretations of subtropical-to-tropical polar conditions once again challenge models and theory. But, the devil, is as always in the details and it is worthwhile to consider the range of potential uncertainties and biases in the paleoclimate record interpretations to evaluate the proposition that models and data may not materially disagree. It is necessary to ask whether current Eocene paleoclimate reconstructions are accurate enough to compellingly argue for a complete failure of climate models and theory. Careful consideration of Eocene model output and proxy data reveals that over most of the Earth the model agrees with the upper range of plausible tropical proxy data and the lower range of plausible high latitude proxy reconstructions. Implications for the sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gas forcing are drawn for a range of potential Eocene climate scenarios ranging from a literal interpretation of one particular model to a literal interpretation of proxy data. Hope for a middle ground is found.

Comparing Apples to Apples: Paleoclimate Model-Data comparison via Proxy System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, Sylvia; Emile-Geay, Julien; Evans, Michael; Noone, David

2014-05-01

The wealth of paleodata spanning the last millennium (hereinafter LM) provides an invaluable testbed for CMIP5-class GCMs. However, comparing GCM output to paleodata is non-trivial. High-resolution paleoclimate proxies generally contain a multivariate and non-linear response to regional climate forcing. Disentangling the multivariate environmental influences on proxies like corals, speleothems, and trees can be complex due to spatiotemporal climate variability, non-stationarity, and threshold dependence. Given these and other complications, many paleodata-GCM comparisons take a leap of faith, relating climate fields (e.g. precipitation, temperature) to geochemical signals in proxy data (e.g. δ18O in coral aragonite or ice cores) (e.g. Braconnot et al., 2012). Isotope-enabled GCMs are a step in the right direction, with water isotopes providing a connector point between GCMs and paleodata. However, such studies are still rare, and isotope fields are not archived as part of LM PMIP3 simulations. More importantly, much of the complexity in how proxy systems record and transduce environmental signals remains unaccounted for. In this study we use proxy system models (PSMs, Evans et al., 2013) to bridge this conceptual gap. A PSM mathematically encodes the mechanistic understanding of the physical, geochemical and, sometimes biological influences on each proxy. To translate GCM output to proxy space, we have synthesized a comprehensive, consistently formatted package of published PSMs, including δ18O in corals, tree ring cellulose, speleothems, and ice cores. Each PSM is comprised of three sub-models: sensor, archive, and observation. For the first time, these different components are coupled together for four major proxy types, allowing uncertainties due to both dating and signal interpretation to be treated within a self-consistent framework. The output of this process is an ensemble of many (say N = 1,000) realizations of the proxy network, all equally plausible under assumed dating uncertainties. We demonstrate the utility of the PSM framework with an integrative multi-PSM simulation. An intermediate-complexity AGCM with isotope physics (SPEEDY-IER, (Molteni, 2003, Dee et al., in prep)) is used to simulate the isotope hydrology and atmospheric response to SSTs derived from the LM PMIP3 integration of the CCSM4 model (Landrum et al., 2012). Relevant dynamical and isotope variables are then used to drive PSMs, emulating a realistic multiproxy network (Emile-Geay et al., 2013). We then ask the following question: given our best knowledge of proxy systems, what aspects of GCM behavior may be validated, and with what uncertainties? We approach this question via a three-tiered 'perfect model' study. A random realization of the simulated proxy data (hereafter 'PaleoObs') is used as a benchmark in the following comparisons: (1) AGCM output (without isotopes) vs. PaleoObs; (2) AGCM output (with isotopes) vs. PaleoObs; (3) coupled AGCM-PSM-simulated proxy ensemble vs. PaleoObs. Enhancing model-data comparison using PSMs highlights uncertainties that may arise from ignoring non-linearities in proxy-climate relationships, or the presence of age uncertainties (as is most typically done is paleoclimate model-data intercomparison). Companion experiments leveraging the 3 sub-model compartmentalization of PSMs allows us to quantify the contribution of each sub-system to the observed model-data discrepancies. We discuss potential repercussions for model-data comparison and implications for validating predictive climate models using paleodata. References Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., Zhao, Y., 06 2012. Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data. Nature Clim. Change 2 (6), 417-424. URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456 Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K. M., Mann, M. E., Wittenberg, A. T., Apr 01 2013. Estimating central equatorial pacific sst variability over the past millennium. part i: Methodology and validation. Journal of Climate 26 (7), 2302-2328. URL http://search.proquest.com/docview/1350277733?accountid=14749 Evans, M., Tolwinski-Ward, S. E., Thompson, D. M., Anchukaitis, K. J., 2013. Applications of proxy system modeling in high resolution paleoclimatology. Quaternary Science Reviews. URL http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012QuInt.279U.134E Landrum, L., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Wahl, E. R., Capotondi, A., Lawrence, P. J., Teng, H., 2012. Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in CCSM4. Journal of Climate (submitted) Molteni, F., 2003. Atmospheric simulations using a GCM with simplified physical parametrizations. I model climatology and variability in multi-decadal experiments. Climate Dynamics, 175-191

A point-by-point multi-scale surface temperature reconstruction method and tests by pseudo proxy experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.

2016-12-01

This study present a multi-scale approach combining Mode Decomposition and Variance Matching (MDVM) method and basic process of Point-by-Point Regression (PPR) method. Different from the widely applied PPR method, the scanning radius for each grid box, were re-calculated considering the impact from topography (i.e. mean altitudes and fluctuations). Thus, appropriate proxy records were selected to be candidates for reconstruction. The results of this multi-scale methodology could not only provide the reconstructed gridded temperature, but also the corresponding uncertainties of the four typical timescales. In addition, this method can bring in another advantage that spatial distribution of the uncertainty for different scales could be quantified. To interpreting the necessity of scale separation in calibration, with proxy records location over Eastern Asia, we perform two sets of pseudo proxy experiments (PPEs) based on different ensembles of climate model simulation. One consist of 7 simulated results by 5 models (BCC-CSM1-1, CSIRO-MK3L-1-2, HadCM3, MPI-ESM-P, and Giss-E2-R) of the "past1000" simulation from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The other is based on the simulations of Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). The pseudo-records network were obtained by adding the white noise with signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) increasing from 0.1 to 1.0 to the simulated true state and the locations mainly followed the PAGES-2k network in Asia. Totally, 400 years (1601-2000) simulation was used for calibration and 600 years (1001-1600) for verification. The reconstructed results were evaluated by three metrics 1) root mean squared error (RMSE), 2) correlation and 3) reduction of error (RE) score. The PPE verification results have shown that, in comparison with ordinary linear calibration method (variance matching), the RMSE and RE score of PPR-MDVM are improved, especially for the area with sparse proxy records. To be noted, in some periods with large volcanic activities, the RMSE of MDVM get larger than VM for higher SNR cases. It should be inferred that the volcanic eruptions might blur the intrinsic characteristics of multi-scales variabilities of the climate system and the MDVM method would show less advantage in that case.

The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ault, Toby R.; Cole, Julia E.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Pederson, Gregory T.; St. George, Scott; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Deser, Clara

2013-01-01

The distribution of climatic variance across the frequency spectrum has substantial importance for anticipating how climate will evolve in the future. Here we estimate power spectra and power laws (ß) from instrumental, proxy, and climate model data to characterize the hydroclimate continuum in western North America (WNA). We test the significance of our estimates of spectral densities and ß against the null hypothesis that they reflect solely the effects of local (non-climate) sources of autocorrelation at the monthly timescale. Although tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions are generally consistent with this null hypothesis, values of ß calculated from long-moisture sensitive chronologies (as opposed to reconstructions), and other types of hydroclimate proxies, exceed null expectations. We therefore argue that there is more low-frequency variability in hydroclimate than monthly autocorrelation alone can generate. Coupled model results archived as part of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) are consistent with the null hypothesis and appear unable to generate variance in hydroclimate commensurate with paleoclimate records. Consequently, at decadal to multidecadal timescales there is more variability in instrumental and proxy data than in the models, suggesting that the risk of prolonged droughts under climate change may be underestimated by CMIP5 simulations of the future.

Reassessing Pliocene temperature gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tierney, J. E.

2017-12-01

With CO2 levels similar to present, the Pliocene Warm Period (PWP) is one of our best analogs for climate change in the near future. Temperature proxy data from the PWP describe dramatically reduced zonal and meridional temperature gradients that have proved difficult to reproduce with climate model simulations. Recently, debate has emerged regarding the interpretation of the proxies used to infer Pliocene temperature gradients; these interpretations affect the magnitude of inferred change and the degree of inconsistency with existing climate model simulations of the PWP. Here, I revisit the issue using Bayesian proxy forward modeling and prediction that propagates known uncertainties in the Mg/Ca, UK'37, and TEX86 proxy systems. These new spatiotemporal predictions are quantitatively compared to PWP simulations to assess probabilistic agreement. Results show generally good agreement between existing Pliocene simulations from the PlioMIP ensemble and SST proxy data, suggesting that exotic changes in the ocean-atmosphere are not needed to explain the Pliocene climate state. Rather, the spatial changes in SST during the Pliocene are largely consistent with elevated CO2 forcing.

Hazardous Convective Weather in the Central United States: Present and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, C.; Ikeda, K.; Rasmussen, R.

2017-12-01

Two sets of 13-year continental-scale convection-permitting simulations were performed using the 4-km-resolution WRF model. They consist of a retrospective simulation, which downscales the ERA-Interim reanalysis during the period October 2000 - September 2013, and a future climate sensitivity simulation for the same period based on the perturbed reanalysis-derived boundary conditions with the CMIP5 ensemble-mean high-end emission scenario climate change. The evaluation of the retrospective simulation indicates that the model is able to realistically reproduce the main characteristics of deep precipitating convection observed in the current climate such as the spectra of convective population and propagating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). It is also shown that severe convection and associated MCS will increase in frequency and intensity, implying a potential increase in high impact convective weather in a future warmer climate. In this study, the warm-season hazardous convective weather (i.e., tonadoes, hails and damaging gusty wind) in the central United states is examined using these 4-km downscaling simulations. First, a model-based proxy for hazardous convective weather is derived on the basis of a set of characteristic meteorological variables such as the model composite radar reflectivity, updraft helicity, vertical wind shear, and low-level wind. Second, the developed proxy is applied to the retrospective simulation for estimate of the model hazardous weather events during the historical period. Third, the simulated hazardous weather statistics are evaluated against the NOAA severe weather reports. Lastly, the proxy is applied to the future climate simulation for the projected change of hazardous convective weather in response to global warming. Preliminary results will be reported at the 2017 AGU session "High Resolution Climate Modeling".

Pollen-proxies say cooler, climate models say warmer: resolving conflicting views of the Holocene climate of the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, E.; Mauri, A.; Davis, B. A. S.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

The evolution of the Mediterranean region's climate during the Holocene has been the subject of long-standing debate within the paleoclimate community. Conflicting hypotheses have emerged from the analysis of different climate reconstructions based on proxy records and climate models outputs.In particular, pollen-based reconstructions of cooler summer temperatures during the Holocene have been criticized based on a hypothesis that the Mediterranean vegetation is mainly limited by effective precipitation and not summer temperature. This criticism is important because climate models show warmer summer temperatures during the Holocene over the Mediterranean region, in direct contradiction of the pollen-based evidence. Here we investigate this problem using a high resolution model simulation of the climate of the Mediterranean region during the mid-to-late Holocene, which we compare against pollen-based reconstructions using two different approaches.In the first, we compare the simulated climate from the model directly with the climate derived from the pollen data. In the second, we compare the simulated vegetation from the model directly with the vegetation from the pollen data.Results show that the climate model is unable to simulate neither the climate nor the vegetation shown by the pollen-data. The pollen data indicates an expansion in cool temperate vegetation in the mid-Holocene while the model suggests an expansion in warm arid vegetation. This suggests that the data-model discrepancy is more likely the result of bias in climate models, and not bias in the pollen-climate calibration transfer-function.

Sensitivity of Pliocene Arctic climate to orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 and sea ice albedo parameterisation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Pickering, Steven J.

2016-01-01

With varying CO2, orbit and sea ice albedo values we are able to reproduce proxy temperature records that lean towards modest levels of high latitude warming, but other proxy data showing greater warming remain beyond the reach of our model. This highlights the importance of additional proxy records at high latitudes and ongoing efforts to compare proxy signals between sites.

An ordination of life histories using morphological proxies: capital vs. income breeding in insects.

PubMed

Davis, Robert B; Javoiš, Juhan; Kaasik, Ants; Õunap, Erki; Tammaru, Toomas

2016-08-01

Predictive classifications of life histories are essential for evolutionary ecology. While attempts to apply a single approach to all organisms may be overambitious, recent advances suggest that more narrow ordination schemes can be useful. However, these schemes mostly lack easily observable proxies of the position of a species on respective axes. It has been proposed that, in insects, the degree of capital (vs. income) breeding, reflecting the importance of adult feeding for reproduction, correlates with various ecological traits at the level of among-species comparison. We sought to prove these ideas via rigorous phylogenetic comparative analyses. We used experimentally derived life-history data for 57 species of European Geometridae (Lepidoptera), and an original phylogenetic reconstruction. The degree of capital breeding was estimated based on morphological proxies, including relative abdomen size of females. Applying Brownian-motion-based comparative analyses (with an original update to include error estimates), we demonstrated the associations between the degree of capital breeding and larval diet breadth, sexual size dimorphism, and reproductive season. Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model based phylogenetic analysis suggested a causal relationship between the degree of capital breeding and diet breadth. Our study indicates that the gradation from capital to income breeding is an informative axis to ordinate life-history strategies in flying insects which are affected by the fecundity vs. mobility trade off, with the availability of easy to record proxies contributing to its predictive power in practical contexts. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

An application of the Health Action Process Approach model to oral hygiene behaviour and dental plaque in adolescents with fixed orthodontic appliances.

PubMed

Scheerman, Janneke F M; van Empelen, Pepijn; van Loveren, Cor; Pakpour, Amir H; van Meijel, Berno; Gholami, Maryam; Mierzaie, Zaher; van den Braak, Matheus C T; Verrips, Gijsbert H W

2017-11-01

The Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) model addresses health behaviours, but it has never been applied to model adolescents' oral hygiene behaviour during fixed orthodontic treatment. This study aimed to apply the HAPA model to explain adolescents' oral hygiene behaviour and dental plaque during orthodontic treatment with fixed appliances. In this cross-sectional study, 116 adolescents with fixed appliances from an orthodontic clinic situated in Almere (the Netherlands) completed a questionnaire assessing oral health behaviours and the psychosocial factors of the HAPA model. Linear regression analyses were performed to examine the factors associated with dental plaque, toothbrushing, and the use of a proxy brush. Stepwise regression analysis showed that lower amounts of plaque were significantly associated with higher frequency of the use of a proxy brush (R 2 = 45%), higher intention of the use of a proxy brush (R 2 = 5%), female gender (R 2 = 2%), and older age (R 2 = 2%). The multiple regression analyses revealed that higher action self-efficacy, intention, maintenance self-efficacy, and a higher education were significantly associated with the use of a proxy brush (R 2 = 45%). Decreased levels of dental plaque are mainly associated with increased use of a proxy brush that is subsequently associated with a higher intention and self-efficacy to use the proxy brush. © 2017 BSPD, IAPD and John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mapping vegetation cover and biomass on the Qinghai-Tibet-Plateau using hyperspectral measurements and multispectral satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Hanna; Lehnert, Lukas W.; Wang, Yun; Reudenbach, Christoph; Nauss, Thomas; Bendix, Jörg

2016-04-01

Pastoralism is the dominant land-use on the Qinghai-Tibet-Plateau (QTP) providing the major economic resource for the local population. However, the pastures are highly supposed to be affected by ongoing degradation whose extent is still disputed. This study uses hyperspectral in situ measurements and multispectral satellite images to assess vegetation cover and above ground biomass (AGB) as proxies of pasture degradation on a regional scale. Using Random Forests in conjunction with recursive feature selection as modeling tool, it is tested whether the full hyperspectral information is needed or if multispectral information is sufficient to accurately estimate vegetation cover and AGB. To regionalize pasture degradation proxies, the transferability of the locally derived models to high resolution multispectral satellite data is assessed. For this purpose, 1183 hyperspectral measurements and vegetation records were sampled at 18 locations on the QTP. AGB was determined on 25 0.5x0.5m plots. Proxies for pasture degradation were derived from the spectra by calculating narrow-band indices (NBI). Using the NBI as predictor variables vegetation cover and AGB were modeled. Models were calculated using the hyperspectral data as well as the same data resampled to WorldView-2, QuickBird and RapidEye channels. The hyperspectral results were compared to the multispectral results. Finally, the models were applied to satellite data to map vegetation cover and AGB on a regional scale. Vegetation cover was accurately predicted by Random Forest if hyperspectral measurements were used. In contrast, errors in AGB estimations were considerably higher. Only small differences in accuracy were observed between the models based on hyper- compared to multispectral data. The application of the models to satellite images generally resulted in an increase of the estimation error. Though this reflects the challenge of applying in situ measurements to satellite data, the results still show a high potential to map pasture degradation proxies on the QTP even for larger scales.

Site-conditions map for Portugal based on VS measurements: methodology and final model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilanova, Susana; Narciso, João; Carvalho, João; Lopes, Isabel; Quinta Ferreira, Mario; Moura, Rui; Borges, José; Nemser, Eliza; Pinto, carlos

2017-04-01

In this paper we present a statistically significant site-condition model for Portugal based on shear-wave velocity (VS) data and surface geology. We also evaluate the performance of commonly used Vs30 proxies based on exogenous data and analyze the implications of using those proxies for calculating site amplification in seismic hazard assessment. The dataset contains 161 Vs profiles acquired in Portugal in the context of research projects, technical reports, academic thesis and academic papers. The methodologies involved in characterizing the Vs structure at the sites in the database include seismic refraction, multichannel analysis of seismic waves and refraction microtremor. Invasive measurements were performed in selected locations in order to compare the Vs profiles obtained from both invasive and non-invasive techniques. In general there was good agreement in the subsurface structure of Vs30 obtained from the different methodologies. The database flat-file includes information on Vs30, surface geology at 1:50.000 and 1:500.000 scales, elevation and topographic slope and based on SRTM30 topographic dataset. The procedure used to develop the site-conditions map is based on a three-step process that includes defining a preliminary set of geological units based on the literature, performing statistical tests to assess whether or not the differences in the distributions of Vs30 are statistically significant, and merging of the geological units accordingly. The dataset was, to some extent, affected by clustering and/or preferential sampling and therefore a declustering algorithm was applied. The final model includes three geological units: 1) Igneous, metamorphic and old (Paleogene and Mesozoic) sedimentary rocks; 2) Neogene and Pleistocene formations, and 3) Holocene formations. The evaluation of proxies indicates that although geological analogues and topographic slope are in general unbiased, the latter shows significant bias for particular geological units and subsequently for some geographical regions.

Reconstruction of the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole index for the past 12,000 years from surface temperature proxy

PubMed Central

Wainer, Ilana; Prado, Luciana Figueiredo; Khodri, Myriam; Otto-Bliesner, Bette

2014-01-01

Climate indices based on sea surface temperature (SST) can synthesize information related to physical processes that describe change and variability in continental precipitation from floods to droughts. The South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole index (SASD) is based on the distribution of SST in the South Atlantic and fits these criteria. It represents the dominant mode of variability of SST in the South Atlantic, which is modulated by changes in the position and intensity of the South Atlantic Subtropical High. Here we reconstructed an index of the South Atlantic Ocean SST (SASD-like) for the past twelve thousand years (the Holocene period) based on proxy-data. This has great scientific implications and important socio-economic ramifications because of its ability to infer variability of precipitation and moisture over South America where past climate data is limited. For the first time a reconstructed index based on proxy data on opposite sides of the SASD-like mode is able to capture, in the South Atlantic, the significant cold events in the Northern Hemisphere at 12.9−11.6 kyr BP and 8.6−8.0 ky BP. These events are related, using a transient model simulation, to precipitation changes over South America. PMID:24924600

Reconstruction of the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole index for the past 12,000 years from surface temperature proxy.

PubMed

Wainer, Ilana; Prado, Luciana Figueiredo; Khodri, Myriam; Otto-Bliesner, Bette

2014-06-13

Climate indices based on sea surface temperature (SST) can synthesize information related to physical processes that describe change and variability in continental precipitation from floods to droughts. The South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole index (SASD) is based on the distribution of SST in the South Atlantic and fits these criteria. It represents the dominant mode of variability of SST in the South Atlantic, which is modulated by changes in the position and intensity of the South Atlantic Subtropical High. Here we reconstructed an index of the South Atlantic Ocean SST (SASD-like) for the past twelve thousand years (the Holocene period) based on proxy-data. This has great scientific implications and important socio-economic ramifications because of its ability to infer variability of precipitation and moisture over South America where past climate data is limited. For the first time a reconstructed index based on proxy data on opposite sides of the SASD-like mode is able to capture, in the South Atlantic, the significant cold events in the Northern Hemisphere at 12.9-11.6 kyr BP and 8.6-8.0 ky BP. These events are related, using a transient model simulation, to precipitation changes over South America.

Improved spectral comparisons of paleoclimate models and observations via proxy system modeling: Implications for multi-decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S. G.; Parsons, L. A.; Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2017-10-01

The spectral characteristics of paleoclimate observations spanning the last millennium suggest the presence of significant low-frequency (multi-decadal to centennial scale) variability in the climate system. Since this low-frequency climate variability is critical for climate predictions on societally-relevant scales, it is essential to establish whether General Circulation models (GCMs) are able to simulate it faithfully. Recent studies find large discrepancies between models and paleoclimate data at low frequencies, prompting concerns surrounding the ability of GCMs to predict long-term, high-magnitude variability under greenhouse forcing (Laepple and Huybers, 2014a, 2014b). However, efforts to ground climate model simulations directly in paleoclimate observations are impeded by fundamental differences between models and the proxy data: proxy systems often record a multivariate and/or nonlinear response to climate, precluding a direct comparison to GCM output. In this paper we bridge this gap via a forward proxy modeling approach, coupled to an isotope-enabled GCM. This allows us to disentangle the various contributions to signals embedded in ice cores, speleothem calcite, coral aragonite, tree-ring width, and tree-ring cellulose. The paper addresses the following questions: (1) do forward-modeled ;pseudoproxies; exhibit variability comparable to proxy data? (2) if not, which processes alter the shape of the spectrum of simulated climate variability, and are these processes broadly distinguishable from climate? We apply our method to representative case studies, and broaden these insights with an analysis of the PAGES2k database (PAGES2K Consortium, 2013). We find that current proxy system models (PSMs) can help resolve model-data discrepancies on interannual to decadal timescales, but cannot account for the mismatch in variance on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. We conclude that, specific to this set of PSMs and isotope-enabled model, the paleoclimate record may exhibit larger low-frequency variability than GCMs currently simulate, indicative of incomplete physics and/or forcings.

Data Driven Smart Proxy for CFD Application of Big Data Analytics & Machine Learning in Computational Fluid Dynamics, Report Two: Model Building at the Cell Level

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ansari, A.; Mohaghegh, S.; Shahnam, M.

To ensure the usefulness of simulation technologies in practice, their credibility needs to be established with Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods. In this project, smart proxy is introduced to significantly reduce the computational cost of conducting large number of multiphase CFD simulations, which is typically required for non-intrusive UQ analysis. Smart proxy for CFD models are developed using pattern recognition capabilities of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Data Mining (DM) technologies. Several CFD simulation runs with different inlet air velocities for a rectangular fluidized bed are used to create a smart CFD proxy that is capable of replicating the CFD results formore » the entire geometry and inlet velocity range. The smart CFD proxy is validated with blind CFD runs (CFD runs that have not played any role during the development of the smart CFD proxy). The developed and validated smart CFD proxy generates its results in seconds with reasonable error (less than 10%). Upon completion of this project, UQ studies that rely on hundreds or thousands of smart CFD proxy runs can be accomplished in minutes. Following figure demonstrates a validation example (blind CFD run) showing the results from the MFiX simulation and the smart CFD proxy for pressure distribution across a fluidized bed at a given time-step (the layer number corresponds to the vertical location in the bed).« less

A Quantum Multi-proxy Blind Signature Scheme Based on Genuine Four-Qubit Entangled State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Juan-Hong; Zhang, Jian-Zhong; Li, Yan-Ping

2016-02-01

In this paper, we propose a multi-proxy blind signature scheme based on controlled teleportation. Genuine four-qubit entangled state functions as quantum channel. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement delegation, signature and verification. The security analysis shows the scheme satisfies the security features of multi-proxy signature, unforgeability, undeniability, blindness and unconditional security.

Coral proxy record of decadal-scale reduction in base flow from Moloka'i, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prouty, Nancy G.; Jupiter, Stacy D.; Field, Michael E.; McCulloch, Malcolm T.

2009-01-01

Groundwater is a major resource in Hawaii and is the principal source of water for municipal, agricultural, and industrial use. With a growing population, a long-term downward trend in rainfall, and the need for proper groundwater management, a better understanding of the hydroclimatological system is essential. Proxy records from corals can supplement long-term observational networks, offering an accessible source of hydrologic and climate information. To develop a qualitative proxy for historic groundwater discharge to coastal waters, a suite of rare earth elements and yttrium (REYs) were analyzed from coral cores collected along the south shore of Moloka'i, Hawaii. The coral REY to calcium (Ca) ratios were evaluated against hydrological parameters, yielding the strongest relationship to base flow. Dissolution of REYs from labradorite and olivine in the basaltic rock aquifers is likely the primary source of coastal ocean REYs. There was a statistically significant downward trend (−40%) in subannually resolved REY/Ca ratios over the last century. This is consistent with long-term records of stream discharge from Moloka'i, which imply a downward trend in base flow since 1913. A decrease in base flow is observed statewide, consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the state. With greater demands on freshwater resources, it is appropriate for withdrawal scenarios to consider long-term trends and short-term climate variability. It is possible that coral paleohydrological records can be used to conduct model-data comparisons in groundwater flow models used to simulate changes in groundwater level and coastal discharge.

Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

2013-12-01

Many paleoclimate analyses assume a linear relationship between the proxy and the target climate variable, and that both the climate quantity and the errors follow normal distributions. An ever-increasing number of proxy records, however, are better modeled using distributions that are heavy-tailed, skewed, or otherwise non-normal, on account of the proxies reflecting non-normally distributed climate variables, or having non-linear relationships with a normally distributed climate variable. The analysis of such proxies requires a different set of tools, and this work serves as a cautionary tale on the danger of making conclusions about the underlying climate from applications of classic statistical procedures to heavily skewed proxy records. Inspired by runoff proxies, we consider an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with climate, and describe three approaches to using such a record to infer past climate: (i) applying standard methods commonly used in the paleoclimate literature, without considering the non-linearities inherent to the proxy record; (ii) applying a power transform prior to using these standard methods; (iii) constructing a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting the skewness in the proxy leads to erroneous conclusions and often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals. In contrast, an explicit treatment of the skewness, using either power transforms or a Bayesian inversion of the mechanistic model for the proxy, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations. We apply these insights in two paleoclimate settings: (1) a classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Moy et al., 2002). Our results agree with the qualitative aspects of previous analyses of this record, but quantitative departures are evident and hold implications for how such records are interpreted, and compared to other proxy records. (2) a multiproxy reconstruction of temperature over the Common Era (Mann et al., 2009), where we find that about one third of the records display significant departures from normality. Accordingly, accounting for skewness in proxy predictors has a notable influence on both reconstructed global mean and spatial patterns of temperature change. Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records thus requires cares, but can be done with relatively simple tools. References - Mann, M. E., Z. Zhang, S. Rutherford, R. S. Bradley, M. K. Hughes, D. Shindell, C. Ammann, G. Faluvegi, and F. Ni (2009), Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little ice age and medieval climate anomaly, Science, 326(5957), 1256-1260, doi:10.1126/science.1177303. - Moy, C., G. Seltzer, D. Rodbell, and D. Anderson (2002), Variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activ- ity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch, Nature, 420(6912), 162-165.

Impact of aerosols and clouds on decadal trends in all-sky solar radiation over the Netherlands (1966-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Reinout; Brandsma, Theo; Pier Siebesma, A.

2017-07-01

A 50-year hourly data set of global shortwave radiation, cloudiness and visibility over the Netherlands was used to quantify the contribution of aerosols and clouds to the trend in yearly-averaged all-sky radiation (1.81 ± 1.07 W m-2 decade-1). Yearly-averaged clear-sky and cloud-base radiation data show large year-to-year fluctuations caused by yearly changes in the occurrence of clear and cloudy periods and cannot be used for trend analysis. Therefore, proxy clear-sky and cloud-base radiations were computed. In a proxy analysis hourly radiation data falling within a fractional cloudiness value are fitted by monotonic increasing functions of solar zenith angle and summed over all zenith angles occurring in a single year to produce an average. Stable trends can then be computed from the proxy radiation data. A functional expression is derived whereby the trend in proxy all-sky radiation is a linear combination of trends in fractional cloudiness, proxy clear-sky radiation and proxy cloud-base radiation. Trends (per decade) in fractional cloudiness, proxy clear-sky and proxy cloud-base radiation were, respectively, 0.0097 ± 0.0062, 2.78 ± 0.50 and 3.43 ± 1.17 W m-2. To add up to the all-sky radiation the three trends have weight factors, namely the difference between the mean cloud-base and clear-sky radiation, the clear-sky fraction and the fractional cloudiness, respectively. Our analysis clearly demonstrates that all three components contribute significantly to the observed trend in all-sky radiation. Radiative transfer calculations using the aerosol optical thickness derived from visibility observations indicate that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI) is a strong candidate to explain the upward trend in the clear-sky radiation. Aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) may have some impact on cloud-base radiation, but it is suggested that decadal changes in cloud thickness and synoptic-scale changes in cloud amount also play an important role.

Diagnostic, Explanatory, and Detection Models of Munchausen by Proxy: Extrapolations from Malingering and Deception

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Richard

2004-01-01

Objective: The overriding objective is a critical examination of Munchausen syndrome by proxy (MSBP) and its closely-related alternative, factitious disorder by proxy (FDBP). Beyond issues of diagnostic validity, assessment methods and potential detection strategies are explored. Methods: A painstaking analysis was conducted of the MSBP and FDBP…

Retrieval of an available water-based soil moisture proxy from thermal infrared remote sensing. Part I: Methodology and validation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A retrieval of soil moisture is proposed using surface flux estimates from satellite-based thermal infrared (TIR) imagery and the Atmosphere-Land-Exchange-Inversion (ALEXI) model. The ability of ALEXI to provide valuable information about the partitioning of the surface energy budget, which can be l...

Was the Little Ice Age more or less El Niño-like than the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly? Evidence from hydrological and temperature proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henke, L. M. K.; Lambert, F. H.; Charman, D. J.

2015-11-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an ocean-atmosphere coupled oscillation over the equatorial Pacific, is the most important source of global climate variability on inter-annual time scales. It has substantial environmental and socio-economic consequences such as devastation of South American fish populations and increased forest fires in Indonesia. The instrumental ENSO record is too short for analysing long-term trends and variability, hence proxy data is used to extend the record. However, different proxy sources have produced varying reconstructions of ENSO, with some evidence for a temperature-precipitation divergence in ENSO trends over the past millennium, in particular during the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly (MCA; AD 800-1300) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD 1400-1850). This throws into question the stability of the modern ENSO system and its links to the global climate, which has implications for future projections. Here we use a new statistical approach using EOF-based weighting to create two new large-scale ENSO reconstructions derived independently from precipitation proxies and temperature proxies respectively. The method is developed and validated using pseudoproxy experiments that address the effects of proxy dating error, resolution and noise to improve uncertainty estimations. The precipitation ENSO reconstruction displays a significantly more El Niño-like state during the LIA than the MCA, while the temperature reconstruction shows no significant difference. The trends shown in the precipitation ENSO reconstruction are relatively robust to variations in the precipitation EOF pattern. However, the temperature reconstruction suffers significantly from a lack of high-quality, favourably located proxy records, which limits its ability to capture the large-scale ENSO signal. Further expansion of the palaeo-database and improvements to instrumental, satellite and model representations of ENSO are needed to fully resolve the discrepancies found among proxy records.

Climate variability in China during the last millennium based on reconstructions and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bustamante, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Xoplaki, E.; Werner, J. P.; Jungclaus, J.; Zorita, E.; González-Rouco, J. F.; Fernández-Donado, L.; Hegerl, G.; Ge, Q.; Hao, Z.; Wagner, S.

2012-04-01

Multi-decadal to centennial climate variability in China during the last millennium is analysed. We compare the low frequency temperature and precipitation variations from proxy-based reconstructions and palaeo-simulations from climate models. Focusing on the regional responses to the global climate evolution is of high relevance due to the complexity of the interactions between physical mechanisms at different spatio-temporal scales and the potential severity of the derived multiple socio-economic impacts. China stands out as a particularly interesting region, not only due to its complex climatic features, ranging from the semiarid northwestern Tibetan Plateau to the tropical monsoon southeastern climates, but also because of its wealth of proxy data. However, comprehensive assessments of proxy- and model-based information about palaeo-climatic variations in China are, to our knowledge, still lacking. In addition, existing studies depict a general lack of agreement between reconstructions and model simulations with respect to the amplitude and/or occurrence of warmer/colder and wetter/drier periods during the last millennium and the magnitude of the 20th century warming trend. Furthermore, these works are mainly focused on eastern China regions that show a denser proxy data coverage. We investigate how last millennium palaeo-runs compare to independent evidences from an unusual large number of proxy reconstructions over the study area by employing state-of-the-art palaeo-simulations with multi-member ensembles from the CMIP5/PMIP3 project. This shapes an ideal frame for the evaluation of the uncertainties associated to internal and intermodel model variability. Preliminary results indicate that despite the strong regional and seasonal dependencies, temperature reconstructions in China evidence coherent variations among all regions at centennial scale, especially during the last 500 years. The spatial consistency of low frequency temperature changes is an interesting aspect and of relevance for the assessment of forced climatic responses in China. The comparison between reconstructions and simulations from climate models show that, apart from the 20th century warming trend, the variance of the reconstructed mean China temperature lies in the envelope (uncertainty range) spanned by the temperature simulations. The uncertainty arises from the internal (multi-member ensembles) and the inter-model variability. Centennial variations tend to be broadly synchronous in the reconstructions and the simulations. However, the simulations show a delay of the warm period 1000-1300 AD. This warm medieval period both in the simulations and the reconstructions is followed by cooling till 1800 AD. Based on the simulations, the recent warming is not unprecedented and is comparable to the medieval warming. Further steps of this study will address the individual contribution of anthropogenic and natural forcings on climate variability and change during the last millennium in China. We will make use of of models that provide runs including single forcings (fingerprints) for the attribution of climate variations from decadal to multi-centennial time scales. With this aim, we will implement statistical techniques for the detection of optimal signal-to-noise-ratio between external forcings and internal variability of reconstructed temperatures and precipitation. To apply these approaches the uncertainties associated with both reconstructions and simulations will be estimated. The latter will shed some light into the mechanisms behind current climate evolution and will help to constrain uncertainties in the sensitivity of model simulations to increasing CO2 scenarios of future climate change. This work will also contribute to the overall aims of the PAGES 2k initiative in Asia (http://www.pages.unibe.ch/workinggroups/2k-network)

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, E. W., Jr.; Goodman, S. J.; LaCasse, K. M.; Cecil, D. J.

2009-01-01

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\\dgc\\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

Progress in tropical isotope dendroclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, M. N.; Schrag, D. P.; Poussart, P. F.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2005-12-01

The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing high resolution proxy network used to characterize the mean state and variability of the hydrological cycle. Here we review early efforts to develop a new class of proxy paleorainfall/humidity indicators using intraseasonal to interannual-resolution stable isotope data from tropical trees. The approach invokes a recently published model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose, rapid methods for cellulose extraction from raw wood, and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. Isotopically-derived age models may be confirmed for modern intervals using trees of known age, radiocarbon measurements, direct measurements of tree diameter, and time series replication. Studies are now underway at a number of laboratories on samples from Costa Rica, northwestern coastal Peru, Indonesia, Thailand, New Guinea, Paraguay, Brazil, India, and the South American Altiplano. Improved sample extraction chemistry and online pyrolysis techniques should increase sample throughput, precision, and time series replication. Statistical calibration together with simple forward modeling based on the well-observed modern period can provide for objective interpretation of the data. Ultimately, replicated data series with well-defined uncertainties can be entered into multiproxy efforts to define aspects of tropical hydrological variability associated with ENSO, the meridional overturning circulation, and the monsoon systems.

A two-population sporadic meteoroid bulk density distribution and its implications for environment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moorhead, Althea V.; Blaauw, Rhiannon C.; Moser, Danielle E.; Campbell-Brown, Margaret D.; Brown, Peter G.; Cooke, William J.

2017-12-01

The bulk density of a meteoroid affects its dynamics in space, its ablation in the atmosphere, and the damage it does to spacecraft and lunar or planetary surfaces. Meteoroid bulk densities are also notoriously difficult to measure, and we are typically forced to assume a density or attempt to measure it via a proxy. In this paper, we construct a density distribution for sporadic meteoroids based on existing density measurements. We considered two possible proxies for density: the KB parameter introduced by Ceplecha and Tisserand parameter, TJ. Although KB is frequently cited as a proxy for meteoroid material properties, we find that it is poorly correlated with ablation-model-derived densities. We therefore follow the example of Kikwaya et al. in associating density with the Tisserand parameter. We fit two density distributions to meteoroids originating from Halley-type comets (TJ < 2) and those originating from all other parent bodies (TJ > 2); the resulting two-population density distribution is the most detailed sporadic meteoroid density distribution justified by the available data. Finally, we discuss the implications for meteoroid environment models and spacecraft risk assessments. We find that correcting for density increases the fraction of meteoroid-induced spacecraft damage produced by the helion/antihelion source.

Sea surface temperatures of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period: A comparison of PRISM3 and HadCM3

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Robinson, M.M.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Stoll, D.K.; Foley, K.M.

2011-01-01

It is essential to document how well the current generation of climate models performs in simulating past climates to have confidence in their ability to project future conditions. We present the first global, in-depth comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from a coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model experiment and a SST reconstruction based on proxy data. This enables the identification of areas in which both the climate model and the proxy dataset require improvement.In general, the fit between model-produced SST anomalies and those formed from the available data is very good. We focus our discussion on three regions where the data–model anomaly exceeds 2 °C. 1) In the high latitude North Pacific, a systematic model error may result in anomalies that are too cold. Also, the deeper Pliocene thermocline may cause disagreement along the California margin; either the upwelling in the model is too strong or the modeled thermocline is not deep enough. 2) In the North Atlantic, the model predicts cooling in the center of a data-based warming trend that steadily increases with latitude from + 1.5 °C to >+ 6 °C. The discrepancy may arise because the modeled North Atlantic Current is too zonal compared to reality, which is reinforced by the lowering of the altitude of the Pliocene Western Cordillera Mountains. In addition, the model's use of modern bathymetry in the higher latitudes may have led the model to underestimate the northward penetration of warmer surface water into the Arctic. 3) Finally, though the data and model show good general agreement across most of the Southern Ocean, a few locations show offsets due to the modern land–sea mask used in the model.Additional considerations could account for many of the modest data–model anomalies, such as differences between calibration climatologies, the oversimplification of the seasonal cycle, and differences between SST proxies (i.e. seasonality and water depth). New SST estimates from data-sparse and regionally important areas will greatly enhance our ability to judge model performance.

The Association of Proxy Care Engagement with Proxy Reports of Patient Experience and Quality of Life.

PubMed

Roydhouse, Jessica K; Gutman, Roee; Keating, Nancy L; Mor, Vincent; Wilson, Ira B

2018-05-27

To assess the association of proxy-specific covariates with proxy-reported patient cancer care experience, quality rating, and quality of life. Secondary analysis of data from the Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance (CanCORS) study. Cross-sectional observational study. The respondents were proxies for patients with incident colorectal or lung cancer. Analyses used linear regression models and adjusted for patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Outcomes included patients' experiences with medical care, nursing care, and care coordination, overall quality ratings, and physical and mental health, all scored on 0-100 scales (0 = worst, 100 = best). Independent variables included the proxy's relationship with the patient and engagement in patient care. Of 1,011 proxies, most were the patient's spouse (50 percent) or child (36 percent). Although most proxies (66 percent) always attended medical visits, 3 percent reported never attending. After adjustment, on average children reported worse experiences and poorer quality care than spouses (4-9 points lower across outcomes). Proxies who never attended medical visits reported significantly worse medical care (-11 points, 95 percent CI = -18 to -3) and care coordination (-13 points, 95 percent CI = -20 to -6). Collecting data on proxy engagement in care is warranted if proxy responses are used. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Sao Paulo Lightning Mapping Array (SP-LMA): Network Assessment and Analyses for Intercomparison Studies and GOES-R Proxy Activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, J. C.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Carey, L. D.; Goodman, S. J.; Rudlosky, S. D.; Albrecht, R.; Morales, C. A.; Anselmo, E. M.; Neves, J. R.; Buechler, D. E.

2014-01-01

A 12 station Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) network was deployed during October 2011 in the vicinity of Sao Paulo, Brazil (SP-LMA) to contribute total lightning measurements to an international field campaign [CHUVA - Cloud processes of tHe main precipitation systems in Brazil: A contribUtion to cloud resolVing modeling and to the GPM (GlobAl Precipitation Measurement)]. The SP-LMA was operational from November 2011 through March 2012 during the Vale do Paraiba campaign. Sensor spacing was on the order of 15-30 km, with a network diameter on the order of 40-50km. The SP-LMA provides good 3-D lightning mapping out to 150 km from the network center, with 2-D coverage considerably farther. In addition to supporting CHUVA science/mission objectives, the SP-LMA is supporting the generation of unique proxy data for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), on NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R: scheduled for a 2015 launch). These proxy data will be used to develop and validate operational algorithms so that they will be ready to use on "day1" following the GOES-R launch. As the CHUVA Vale do Paraiba campaign opportunity was formulated, a broad community-based interest developed for a comprehensive Lightning Location System (LLS) intercomparison and assessment study, leading to the participation and/or deployment of eight other ground-based networks and the space-based Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). The SP-LMA data is being intercompared with lightning observations from other deployed lightning networks to advance our understanding of the capabilities/contributions of each of these networks toward GLM proxy and validation activities. This paper addresses the network assessment including noise reduction criteria, detection efficiency estimates, and statistical and climatological (both temporal and spatially) analyses for intercomparison studies and GOES-R proxy activities.

Bayesian multiproxy temperature reconstruction with black spruce ring widths and stable isotopes from the northern Quebec taiga

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gennaretti, Fabio; Huard, David; Naulier, Maud; Savard, Martine; Bégin, Christian; Arseneault, Dominique; Guiot, Joel

2017-12-01

Northeastern North America has very few millennium-long, high-resolution climate proxy records. However, very recently, a new tree-ring dataset suitable for temperature reconstructions over the last millennium was developed in the northern Quebec taiga. This dataset is composed of one δ18O and six ring width chronologies. Until now, these chronologies have only been used in independent temperature reconstructions (from δ18O or ring width) showing some differences. Here, we added to the dataset a δ13C chronology and developed a significantly improved millennium-long multiproxy reconstruction (997-2006 CE) accounting for uncertainties with a Bayesian approach that evaluates the likelihood of each proxy model. We also undertook a methodological sensitivity analysis to assess the different responses of each proxy to abrupt forcings such as strong volcanic eruptions. Ring width showed a larger response to single eruptions and a larger cumulative impact of multiple eruptions during active volcanic periods, δ18O showed intermediate responses, and δ13C was mostly insensitive to volcanic eruptions. We conclude that all reconstructions based on a single proxy can be misleading because of the possible reduced or amplified responses to specific forcing agents.

The importance of independent chronology in integrating records of past climate change for the 60-8 ka INTIMATE time interval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brauer, Achim; Hajdas, Irka; Blockley, Simon P. E.; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Christl, Marcus; Ivy-Ochs, Susan; Moseley, Gina E.; Nowaczyk, Norbert N.; Rasmussen, Sune O.; Roberts, Helen M.; Spötl, Christoph; Staff, Richard A.; Svensson, Anders

2014-12-01

This paper provides a brief overview of the most common dating techniques applied in palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironmental studies including four radiometric and isotopic dating methods (radiocarbon, 230Th disequilibrium, luminescence, cosmogenic nuclides) and two incremental methods based on layer counting (ice layer, varves). For each method, concise background information about the fundamental principles and methodological approaches is provided. We concentrate on the time interval of focus for the INTIMATE (Integrating Ice core, MArine and TErrestrial records) community (60-8 ka). This dating guide addresses palaeoclimatologists who aim at interpretation of their often regional and local proxy time series in a wider spatial context and, therefore, have to rely on correlation with proxy records obtained from different archives from various regions. For this reason, we especially emphasise scientific approaches for harmonising chronologies for sophisticated and robust proxy data integration. In this respect, up-to-date age modelling techniques are presented as well as tools for linking records by age equivalence including tephrochronology, cosmogenic 10Be and palaeomagnetic variations. Finally, to avoid inadequate documentation of chronologies and assure reliable correlation of proxy time series, this paper provides recommendations for minimum standards of uncertainty and age datum reporting.

Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2010-01-01

Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.

On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

PubMed Central

Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

2014-01-01

Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be chosen in light of the desired accuracy for the epidemic situation under study. PMID:25010676

Bayesian model checking: A comparison of tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucy, L. B.

2018-06-01

Two procedures for checking Bayesian models are compared using a simple test problem based on the local Hubble expansion. Over four orders of magnitude, p-values derived from a global goodness-of-fit criterion for posterior probability density functions agree closely with posterior predictive p-values. The former can therefore serve as an effective proxy for the difficult-to-calculate posterior predictive p-values.

Indices and Dynamics of Global Hydroclimate Over the Past Millennium from Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiger, N. J.; Smerdon, J. E.

2017-12-01

Reconstructions based on data assimilation (DA) are at the forefront of model-data syntheses in that such reconstructions optimally fuse proxy data with climate models. DA-based paleoclimate reconstructions have the benefit of being physically-consistent across the reconstructed climate variables and are capable of providing dynamical information about past climate phenomena. Here we use a new implementation of DA, that includes updated proxy system models and climate model bias correction procedures, to reconstruct global hydroclimate on seasonal and annual timescales over the last millennium. This new global hydroclimate product includes reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and global surface temperature along with dynamical variables including the Nino 3.4 index, the latitudinal location of the intertropical convergence zone, and an index of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Here we present a validation of the reconstruction product and also elucidate the causes of severe drought in North America and in equatorial Africa. Specifically, we explore the connection between droughts in North America and modes of ocean variability in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We also link drought over equatorial Africa to shifts of the intertropical convergence zone and modes of ocean variability.

Multiscale combination of climate model simulations and proxy records over the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Nie, Suping; Zhao, Zongci; Huang, Jianbin; Tian, Qinhua

2018-05-01

To highlight the compatibility of climate model simulation and proxy reconstruction at different timescales, a timescale separation merging method combining proxy records and climate model simulations is presented. Annual mean surface temperature anomalies for the last millennium (851-2005 AD) at various scales over the land of the Northern Hemisphere were reconstructed with 2° × 2° spatial resolution, using an optimal interpolation (OI) algorithm. All target series were decomposed using an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method followed by power spectral analysis. Four typical components were obtained at inter-annual, decadal, multidecadal, and centennial timescales. A total of 323 temperature-sensitive proxy chronologies were incorporated after screening for each component. By scaling the proxy components using variance matching and applying a localized OI algorithm to all four components point by point, we obtained merged surface temperatures. Independent validation indicates that the most significant improvement was for components at the inter-annual scale, but this became less evident with increasing timescales. In mid-latitude land areas, 10-30% of grids were significantly corrected at the inter-annual scale. By assimilating the proxy records, the merged results reduced the gap in response to volcanic forcing between a pure reconstruction and simulation. Difficulty remained in verifying the centennial information and quantifying corresponding uncertainties, so additional effort should be devoted to this aspect in future research.

Quantitative Hydraulic Models Of Early Land Plants Provide Insight Into Middle Paleozoic Terrestrial Paleoenvironmental Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, J. P.; Fischer, W. W.

2010-12-01

Fossil plants provide useful proxies of Earth’s climate because plants are closely connected, through physiology and morphology, to the environments in which they lived. Recent advances in quantitative hydraulic models of plant water transport provide new insight into the history of climate by allowing fossils to speak directly to environmental conditions based on preserved internal anatomy. We report results of a quantitative hydraulic model applied to one of the earliest terrestrial plants preserved in three dimensions, the ~396 million-year-old vascular plant Asteroxylon mackei. This model combines equations describing the rate of fluid flow through plant tissues with detailed observations of plant anatomy; this allows quantitative estimates of two critical aspects of plant function. First and foremost, results from these models quantify the supply of water to evaporative surfaces; second, results describe the ability of plant vascular systems to resist tensile damage from extreme environmental events, such as drought or frost. This approach permits quantitative comparisons of functional aspects of Asteroxylon with other extinct and extant plants, informs the quality of plant-based environmental proxies, and provides concrete data that can be input into climate models. Results indicate that despite their small size, water transport cells in Asteroxylon could supply a large volume of water to the plant's leaves--even greater than cells from some later-evolved seed plants. The smallest Asteroxylon tracheids have conductivities exceeding 0.015 m^2 / MPa * s, whereas Paleozoic conifer tracheids do not reach this threshold until they are three times wider. However, this increase in conductivity came at the cost of little to no adaptations for transport safety, placing the plant’s vegetative organs in jeopardy during drought events. Analysis of the thickness-to-span ratio of Asteroxylon’s tracheids suggests that environmental conditions of reduced relative humidity (<20%) combined with elevated temperatures (>25°C) could cause sufficient cavitation to reduce hydraulic conductivity by 50%. This suggests that the Early Devonian environments that supported the earliest vascular plants were not subject to prolonged midseason droughts, or, alternatively, that the growing season was short. This places minimum constraints on water availability (e.g., groundwater hydration, relative humidity) in locations where Asteroxylon fossils are found; these environments must have had high relative humidities, comparable to tropical riparian environments. Given these constraints, biome-scale paleovegetation models that place early vascular plants distal to water sources can be revised to account for reduced drought tolerance. Paleoclimate proxies that treat early terrestrial plants as functionally interchangeable can incorporate physiological differences in a quantitatively meaningful way. Application of hydraulic models to fossil plants provides an additional perspective on the 475 million-year history of terrestrial photosynthetic environments and has potential to corroborate other plant-based paleoclimate proxies.

47 CFR 51.513 - Proxies for forward-looking economic cost.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Proxies for forward-looking economic cost. 51... SERVICES (CONTINUED) INTERCONNECTION Pricing of Elements § 51.513 Proxies for forward-looking economic cost... a cost study that complies with the forward-looking economic cost based pricing methodology...

47 CFR 51.513 - Proxies for forward-looking economic cost.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Proxies for forward-looking economic cost. 51... SERVICES (CONTINUED) INTERCONNECTION Pricing of Elements § 51.513 Proxies for forward-looking economic cost... a cost study that complies with the forward-looking economic cost based pricing methodology...

47 CFR 51.513 - Proxies for forward-looking economic cost.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Proxies for forward-looking economic cost. 51... SERVICES (CONTINUED) INTERCONNECTION Pricing of Elements § 51.513 Proxies for forward-looking economic cost... a cost study that complies with the forward-looking economic cost based pricing methodology...

47 CFR 51.513 - Proxies for forward-looking economic cost.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Proxies for forward-looking economic cost. 51... SERVICES (CONTINUED) INTERCONNECTION Pricing of Elements § 51.513 Proxies for forward-looking economic cost... a cost study that complies with the forward-looking economic cost based pricing methodology...

47 CFR 51.513 - Proxies for forward-looking economic cost.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Proxies for forward-looking economic cost. 51... SERVICES (CONTINUED) INTERCONNECTION Pricing of Elements § 51.513 Proxies for forward-looking economic cost... a cost study that complies with the forward-looking economic cost based pricing methodology...

A Quantum Proxy Blind Signature Scheme Based on Genuine Five-Qubit Entangled State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Chuan; Zhang, Jian-Zhong; Xie, Shu-Cui

2017-06-01

In this paper, a quantum proxy blind signature scheme based on controlled quantum teleportation is proposed. This scheme uses a genuine five-qubit entangled state as quantum channel and adopts the classical Vernam algorithm to blind message. We use the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement delegation, signature and verification. Security analysis shows that our scheme is valid and satisfy the properties of a proxy blind signature, such as blindness, verifiability, unforgeability, undeniability.

Stratigraphic framework for Pliocene paleoclimate reconstruction: The correlation conundrum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Robinson, M.M.

2006-01-01

Pre-Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions face a correlation conundrum because complications inherent in the stratigraphic record impede the development of synchronous reconstruction. The Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) paleoenvironmental reconstructions have carefully balanced temporal resolution and paleoclimate proxy data to achieve a useful and reliable product and are the most comprehensive pre-Pleistocene data sets available for analysis of warmer-than-present climate and for climate modeling experiments. This paper documents the stratigraphic framework for the mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction of the North Atlantic and explores the relationship between stratigraphic/temporal resolution and various paleoceanographic estimates of SST. The magnetobiostratigraphic framework for the PRISM North Atlantic region is constructed from planktic foraminifer, calcareous nannofossil and paleomagnetic reversal events recorded in deep-sea cores and calibrated to age. Planktic foraminifer census data from multiple samples within the mid-Pliocene yield multiple SST estimates for each site. Extracting a single SST value at each site from multiple estimates, given the limitations of the material and stratigraphic resolution, is problematic but necessary for climate model experiments. The PRISM reconstruction, unprecedented in its integration of many different types of data at a focused stratigraphic interval, utilizes a time slab approach and is based on warm peak average temperatures. A greater understanding of the dynamics of the climate system and significant advances in models now mandate more precise, globally distributed yet temporally synchronous SST estimates than are available through averaging techniques. Regardless of the precision used to correlate between sequences within the midd-Pliocene, a truly synoptic reconstruction in the temporal sense is unlikely. SST estimates from multiple proxies promise to further refine paleoclimate reconstructions but must consider the complications associated with each method, what each proxy actually records, and how these different proxies compare in time-averaged samples.

Quantitative Holocene climatic reconstructions for the lower Yangtze region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianyong; Dodson, John; Yan, Hong; Wang, Weiming; Innes, James B.; Zong, Yongqiang; Zhang, Xiaojian; Xu, Qinghai; Ni, Jian; Lu, Fengyan

2018-02-01

Quantitative proxy-based and high-resolution palaeoclimatic datasets are scarce for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River (LYR) basin. This region is in a transitional vegetation zone which is climatologically sensitive; and as a birthplace for prehistorical civilization in China, it is important to understand how palaeoclimatic dynamics played a role in affecting cultural development in the region. We present a pollen-based and regionally-averaged Holocene climatic twin-dataset for mean total annual precipitation (PANN) and mean annual temperature (TANN) covering the last 10,000 years for the LYR region. This is based on the technique of weighted averaging-partial least squares regression to establish robust calibration models for obtaining reliable climatic inferences. The pollen-based reconstructions generally show an early Holocene climatic optimum with both abundant monsoonal rainfall and warm thermal conditions, and a declining pattern of both PANN and TANN values in the middle to late Holocene. The main driving forces behind the Holocene climatic changes in the LYR area are likely summer solar insolation associated with tropical or subtropical macro-scale climatic circulations such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regional multi-proxy comparisons indicate that the Holocene variations in precipitation and temperature for the LYR region display an in-phase relationship with other related proxy records from southern monsoonal China and the Indian monsoon-influenced regions, but are inconsistent with the Holocene moisture or temperature records from northern monsoonal China and the westerly-dominated region in northwestern China. Overall, our comprehensive palaeoclimatic dataset and models may be significant tools for understanding the Holocene Asian monsoonal evolution and for anticipating its future dynamics in eastern Asia.

Creating an index to measure health state of depressed patients in automated healthcare databases: the methodology.

PubMed

François, Clément; Tanasescu, Adrian; Lamy, François-Xavier; Despiegel, Nicolas; Falissard, Bruno; Chalem, Ylana; Lançon, Christophe; Llorca, Pierre-Michel; Saragoussi, Delphine; Verpillat, Patrice; Wade, Alan G; Zighed, Djamel A

2017-01-01

Background and objective : Automated healthcare databases (AHDB) are an important data source for real life drug and healthcare use. In the filed of depression, lack of detailed clinical data requires the use of binary proxies with important limitations. The study objective was to create a Depressive Health State Index (DHSI) as a continuous health state measure for depressed patients using available data in an AHDB. Methods: The study was based on historical cohort design using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Depressive episodes (depression diagnosis with an antidepressant prescription) were used to create the DHSI through 6 successive steps: (1) Defining study design; (2) Identifying constituent parameters; (3) Assigning relative weights to the parameters; (4) Ranking based on the presence of parameters; (5) Standardizing the rank of the DHSI; (6) Developing a regression model to derive the DHSI in any other sample. Results : The DHSI ranged from 0 (worst) to 100 (best health state) comprising 29 parameters. The proportion of depressive episodes with a remission proxy increased with DHSI quartiles. Conclusion : A continuous outcome for depressed patients treated by antidepressants was created in an AHDB using several different variables and allowed more granularity than currently used proxies.

Enhancing the AliEn Web Service Authentication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jianlin; Saiz, Pablo; Carminati, Federico; Betev, Latchezar; Zhou, Daicui; Mendez Lorenzo, Patricia; Grigoras, Alina Gabriela; Grigoras, Costin; Furano, Fabrizio; Schreiner, Steffen; Vladimirovna Datskova, Olga; Sankar Banerjee, Subho; Zhang, Guoping

2011-12-01

Web Services are an XML based technology that allow applications to communicate with each other across disparate systems. Web Services are becoming the de facto standard that enable inter operability between heterogeneous processes and systems. AliEn2 is a grid environment based on web services. The AliEn2 services can be divided in three categories: Central services, deployed once per organization; Site services, deployed on each of the participating centers; Job Agents running on the worker nodes automatically. A security model to protect these services is essential for the whole system. Current implementations of web server, such as Apache, are not suitable to be used within the grid environment. Apache with the mod_ssl and OpenSSL only supports the X.509 certificates. But in the grid environment, the common credential is the proxy certificate for the purpose of providing restricted proxy and delegation. An Authentication framework was taken for AliEn2 web services to add the ability to accept X.509 certificates and proxy certificates from client-side to Apache Web Server. The authentication framework could also allow the generation of access control policies to limit access to the AliEn2 web services.

Merging Multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3 Past-1000 Ensemble Simulations with Tree Ring Proxy Data by Optimal Interpolation Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Luo, Yong; Xing, Pei; Nie, Suping; Tian, Qinhua

2015-04-01

Two sets of gridded annual mean surface air temperature in past millennia over the Northern Hemisphere was constructed employing optimal interpolation (OI) method so as to merge the tree ring proxy records with the simulations from CMIP5 (the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project). Both the uncertainties in proxy reconstruction and model simulations can be taken into account applying OI algorithm. For better preservation of physical coordinated features and spatial-temporal completeness of climate variability in 7 copies of model results, we perform the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis to truncate the ensemble mean field as the first guess (background field) for OI. 681 temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies are collected and screened from International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) and Past Global Changes (PAGES-2k) project. Firstly, two methods (variance matching and linear regression) are employed to calibrate the tree ring chronologies with instrumental data (CRUTEM4v) individually. In addition, we also remove the bias of both the background field and proxy records relative to instrumental dataset. Secondly, time-varying background error covariance matrix (B) and static "observation" error covariance matrix (R) are calculated for OI frame. In our scheme, matrix B was calculated locally, and "observation" error covariance are partially considered in R matrix (the covariance value between the pairs of tree ring sites that are very close to each other would be counted), which is different from the traditional assumption that R matrix should be diagonal. Comparing our results, it turns out that regional averaged series are not sensitive to the selection for calibration methods. The Quantile-Quantile plots indicate regional climatologies based on both methods are tend to be more agreeable with regional reconstruction of PAGES-2k in 20th century warming period than in little ice age (LIA). Lager volcanic cooling response over Asia and Europe in context of recent millennium are detected in our datasets than that revealed in regional reconstruction from PAGES-2k network. Verification experiments have showed that the merging approach really reconcile the proxy data and model ensemble simulations in an optimal way (with smaller errors than both of them). Further research is needed to improve the error estimation on them.

Challenges in Quantifying Pliocene Terrestrial Warming Revealed by Data-Model Discord

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salzmann, Ulrich; Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Voss, Jochen; Hill, Daniel J.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Bragg, Frances J.; Chandler, Mark A.;

Fluorescence-based proxies for lignin in freshwater dissolved organic matter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hernes, Peter J.; Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Eckard, Robert S.; Spencer, Robert G.M.

2009-01-01

Lignin phenols have proven to be powerful biomarkers in environmental studies; however, the complexity of lignin analysis limits the number of samples and thus spatial and temporal resolution in any given study. In contrast, spectrophotometric characterization of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is rapid, noninvasive, relatively inexpensive, requires small sample volumes, and can even be measured in situ to capture fine-scale temporal and spatial detail of DOM cycling. Here we present a series of cross-validated Partial Least Squares models that use fluorescence properties of DOM to explain up to 91% of lignin compositional and concentration variability in samples collected seasonally over 2 years in the Sacramento River/San Joaquin River Delta in California, United States. These models were subsequently used to predict lignin composition and concentration from fluorescence measurements collected during a diurnal study in the San Joaquin River. While modeled lignin composition remained largely unchanged over the diurnal cycle, changes in modeled lignin concentrations were much greater than expected and indicate that the sensitivity of fluorescence-based proxies for lignin may prove invaluable as a tool for selecting the most informative samples for detailed lignin characterization. With adequate calibration, similar models could be used to significantly expand our ability to study sources and processing of DOM in complex surface water systems.

Using multi-resolution proxies to assess ENSO impacts on the mean state of the tropical Pacific.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamperidou, C.; Conroy, J. L.

2016-12-01

Observations and model simulations indicate that the relationship between ENSO and the mean state of the tropical Pacific is a two-way interaction. On one hand, a strong zonal SST gradient (dSST) in the Pacific (colder cold tongue) increases the potential intensity of upcoming ENSO events and may lead to increased ENSO variance. On the other hand, in a period of increased ENSO activity, large events can warm the cold tongue at decadal scales via residual heating, and thus lead to reduced zonal SST gradient (ENSO rectification mechanism). The short length of the observational record hinders our ability to confidently evaluate which mechanism dominates in each period, and whether it is sensitive to external climate forcing. This question is effectively a question of interaction between two timescales: interannual and decadal. Paleoclimate proxies of different resolutions can help elucidate this question, since they can be independent records of variability in these separate timescales. Here, we use coral proxies of ENSO variability from across the Pacific and multi-proxy records of dSST at longer timescales. Proxies, models, and observations indicate that in periods of increased ENSO activity, dSST is negatively correlated with ENSO variance at decadal timescales, indicating that strong ENSO events may affect the decadal mean state via warming the cold tongue. Using climate model simulations we attribute this effect to residual nonlinear dynamical heating, thus supporting the ENSO rectification mechanism. On the contrary, in periods without strong events, ENSO variance and dSST are positively correlated, which indicates that the primary mechanism at work is the effect of the mean state on ENSO. Our analysis also quantitatively identifies the regions where paleoclimate proxies are needed in order to reduce the existing uncertainties in ENSO-mean state interactions. Hence, this study is a synthesis of observations, model simulations and paleoclimate proxy evidence guided by the fundamental and open question of multi-scale interactions in the tropical Pacific, and illustrates the need for multi-resolution paleoclimate proxies and their potential uses.

Proxy-assisted multicasting of video streams over mobile wireless networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Maggie; Pezeshkmehr, Layla; Moh, Melody

2005-03-01

This work addresses the challenge of providing seamless multimedia services to mobile users by proposing a proxy-assisted multicast architecture for delivery of video streams. We propose a hybrid system of streaming proxies, interconnected by an application-layer multicast tree, where each proxy acts as a cluster head to stream out content to its stationary and mobile users. The architecture is based on our previously proposed Enhanced-NICE protocol, which uses an application-layer multicast tree to deliver layered video streams to multiple heterogeneous receivers. We targeted the study on placements of streaming proxies to enable efficient delivery of live and on-demand video, supporting both stationary and mobile users. The simulation results are evaluated and compared with two other baseline scenarios: one with a centralized proxy system serving the entire population and one with mini-proxies each to serve its local users. The simulations are implemented using the J-SIM simulator. The results show that even though proxies in the hybrid scenario experienced a slightly longer delay, they had the lowest drop rate of video content. This finding illustrates the significance of task sharing in multiple proxies. The resulted load balancing among proxies has provided a better video quality delivered to a larger audience.

37 CFR 380.23 - Terms for making payment of royalty fees and statements of account.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... waiver, including development of proxy usage data. The Proxy Fee shall be paid by the date specified in... Educational Webcasters based on proxy usage data in accordance with a methodology adopted by the Collective's... third-party Web hosting or service provider maintains equipment or software for a Noncommercial...

A Quantum Proxy Weak Blind Signature Scheme Based on Controlled Quantum Teleportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Hai-Jing; Yu, Yao-Feng; Song, Qin; Gao, Lan-Xiang

2015-04-01

Proxy blind signature is applied to the electronic paying system, electronic voting system, mobile agent system, security of internet, etc. A quantum proxy weak blind signature scheme is proposed in this paper. It is based on controlled quantum teleportation. Five-qubit entangled state functions as quantum channel. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement message blinding, so it could guarantee not only the unconditional security of the scheme but also the anonymity of the messages owner.

Persistent positive North Atlantic oscillation mode dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

PubMed

Trouet, Valérie; Esper, Jan; Graham, Nicholas E; Baker, Andy; Scourse, James D; Frank, David C

2009-04-03

The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was the most recent pre-industrial era warm interval of European climate, yet its driving mechanisms remain uncertain. We present here a 947-year-long multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reconstruction and find a persistent positive NAO during the MCA. Supplementary reconstructions based on climate model results and proxy data indicate a clear shift to weaker NAO conditions into the Little Ice Age (LIA). Globally distributed proxy data suggest that this NAO shift is one aspect of a global MCA-LIA climate transition that probably was coupled to prevailing La Niña-like conditions amplified by an intensified Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the MCA.

Web Proxy Auto Discovery for the WLCG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dykstra, D.; Blomer, J.; Blumenfeld, B.; De Salvo, A.; Dewhurst, A.; Verguilov, V.

2017-10-01

All four of the LHC experiments depend on web proxies (that is, squids) at each grid site to support software distribution by the CernVM FileSystem (CVMFS). CMS and ATLAS also use web proxies for conditions data distributed through the Frontier Distributed Database caching system. ATLAS & CMS each have their own methods for their grid jobs to find out which web proxies to use for Frontier at each site, and CVMFS has a third method. Those diverse methods limit usability and flexibility, particularly for opportunistic use cases, where an experiment’s jobs are run at sites that do not primarily support that experiment. This paper describes a new Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG) system for discovering the addresses of web proxies. The system is based on an internet standard called Web Proxy Auto Discovery (WPAD). WPAD is in turn based on another standard called Proxy Auto Configuration (PAC). Both the Frontier and CVMFS clients support this standard. The input into the WLCG system comes from squids registered in the ATLAS Grid Information System (AGIS) and CMS SITECONF files, cross-checked with squids registered by sites in the Grid Configuration Database (GOCDB) and the OSG Information Management (OIM) system, and combined with some exceptions manually configured by people from ATLAS and CMS who operate WLCG Squid monitoring. WPAD servers at CERN respond to http requests from grid nodes all over the world with a PAC file that lists available web proxies, based on IP addresses matched from a database that contains the IP address ranges registered to organizations. Large grid sites are encouraged to supply their own WPAD web servers for more flexibility, to avoid being affected by short term long distance network outages, and to offload the WLCG WPAD servers at CERN. The CERN WPAD servers additionally support requests from jobs running at non-grid sites (particularly for LHC@Home) which they direct to the nearest publicly accessible web proxy servers. The responses to those requests are geographically ordered based on a separate database that maps IP addresses to longitude and latitude.

Web Proxy Auto Discovery for the WLCG

DOE PAGES

Dykstra, D.; Blomer, J.; Blumenfeld, B.; ...

2017-11-23

All four of the LHC experiments depend on web proxies (that is, squids) at each grid site to support software distribution by the CernVM FileSystem (CVMFS). CMS and ATLAS also use web proxies for conditions data distributed through the Frontier Distributed Database caching system. ATLAS & CMS each have their own methods for their grid jobs to find out which web proxies to use for Frontier at each site, and CVMFS has a third method. Those diverse methods limit usability and flexibility, particularly for opportunistic use cases, where an experiment’s jobs are run at sites that do not primarily supportmore » that experiment. This paper describes a new Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG) system for discovering the addresses of web proxies. The system is based on an internet standard called Web Proxy Auto Discovery (WPAD). WPAD is in turn based on another standard called Proxy Auto Configuration (PAC). Both the Frontier and CVMFS clients support this standard. The input into the WLCG system comes from squids registered in the ATLAS Grid Information System (AGIS) and CMS SITECONF files, cross-checked with squids registered by sites in the Grid Configuration Database (GOCDB) and the OSG Information Management (OIM) system, and combined with some exceptions manually configured by people from ATLAS and CMS who operate WLCG Squid monitoring. WPAD servers at CERN respond to http requests from grid nodes all over the world with a PAC file that lists available web proxies, based on IP addresses matched from a database that contains the IP address ranges registered to organizations. Large grid sites are encouraged to supply their own WPAD web servers for more flexibility, to avoid being affected by short term long distance network outages, and to offload the WLCG WPAD servers at CERN. The CERN WPAD servers additionally support requests from jobs running at non-grid sites (particularly for LHC@Home) which it directs to the nearest publicly accessible web proxy servers. Furthermore, the responses to those requests are geographically ordered based on a separate database that maps IP addresses to longitude and latitude.« less

Web Proxy Auto Discovery for the WLCG

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dykstra, D.; Blomer, J.; Blumenfeld, B.

All four of the LHC experiments depend on web proxies (that is, squids) at each grid site to support software distribution by the CernVM FileSystem (CVMFS). CMS and ATLAS also use web proxies for conditions data distributed through the Frontier Distributed Database caching system. ATLAS & CMS each have their own methods for their grid jobs to find out which web proxies to use for Frontier at each site, and CVMFS has a third method. Those diverse methods limit usability and flexibility, particularly for opportunistic use cases, where an experiment’s jobs are run at sites that do not primarily supportmore » that experiment. This paper describes a new Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG) system for discovering the addresses of web proxies. The system is based on an internet standard called Web Proxy Auto Discovery (WPAD). WPAD is in turn based on another standard called Proxy Auto Configuration (PAC). Both the Frontier and CVMFS clients support this standard. The input into the WLCG system comes from squids registered in the ATLAS Grid Information System (AGIS) and CMS SITECONF files, cross-checked with squids registered by sites in the Grid Configuration Database (GOCDB) and the OSG Information Management (OIM) system, and combined with some exceptions manually configured by people from ATLAS and CMS who operate WLCG Squid monitoring. WPAD servers at CERN respond to http requests from grid nodes all over the world with a PAC file that lists available web proxies, based on IP addresses matched from a database that contains the IP address ranges registered to organizations. Large grid sites are encouraged to supply their own WPAD web servers for more flexibility, to avoid being affected by short term long distance network outages, and to offload the WLCG WPAD servers at CERN. The CERN WPAD servers additionally support requests from jobs running at non-grid sites (particularly for LHC@Home) which it directs to the nearest publicly accessible web proxy servers. Furthermore, the responses to those requests are geographically ordered based on a separate database that maps IP addresses to longitude and latitude.« less

Deuterium Values from Hydrated Volcanic Glass: A Paleoelevation Proxy for Oregon's Cascade Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, T. B.; Bershaw, J. T.; Cassel, E. J.

2017-12-01

Deuterium ratios (δD) of hydrated volcanic glass have been used to reconstruct Cenozoic paleoenvironments. However, the reliability and proper sample preparation protocol have been debated. The Cascades are an excellent location to study the validity of hydrated volcanic glass as a paleoelevation proxy for several reasons. Moisture is largely derived from a single oceanic source and falls as orographic precipitation in the Cascades, leading to a characteristic altitude effect, or inverse relationship between elevation and the isotopic composition of meteoric water (δD). Additionally, past studies have inferred uplift of the Cascades since the Miocene based on changing fossil assemblages, tectonic models, and other isotopic proxies including soil carbonates and fossil teeth. In this study, hydrated volcanic ash samples from the lee of the Cascades were rinsed with hydrochloric acid and sonicated before glass shards were hand-selected and analyzed for δD and wt. % water. These preliminary results exhibited δD values becoming enriched with time, a trend opposite of other paleowater proxy studies in the area. A possible explanation for this trend is contamination due to inadequate removal of materials adhered to shard surfaces that can readily exchange with environmental water. Recent research asserts that hydrofluoric acid (HF) etching during sample preparation is necessary to accurately measure δD values of syndepositional water. Volcanic ash samples were reanalyzed after preparation using HF abrasion and heavy liquid separation. The data from these two subsets are interpreted in the context of modern water across the range, as well as other paleowater proxy and geologic studies to determine the implications of volcanic glass as a paleoelevation proxy in the Pacific Northwest.

Benthic Foraminifera Clumped Isotope Calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piasecki, A.; Marchitto, T. M., Jr.; Bernasconi, S. M.; Grauel, A. L.; Tisserand, A. A.; Meckler, N.

2017-12-01

Due to the widespread spatial and temporal distribution of benthic foraminifera within ocean sediments, they are a commonly used for reconstructing past ocean temperatures and environmental conditions. Many foraminifera-based proxies, however, require calibration schemes that are species specific, which becomes complicated in deep time due to extinct species. Furthermore, calibrations often depend on seawater chemistry being stable and/or constrained, which is not always the case over significant climate state changes like the Eocene Oligocene Transition. Here we study the effect of varying benthic foraminifera species using the clumped isotope proxy for temperature. The benefit of this proxy is that it is independent of seawater chemistry, whereas the downside is that it requires a relatively large sample amounts. Due to recent advancements in sample processing that reduce the sample weight by a factor of 10, clumped isotopes can now be applied to a range paleoceanographic questions. First however, we need to prove that, unlike for other proxies, there are no interspecies differences with clumped isotopes, as is predicted by first principles modeling. We used a range of surface sediment samples covering a temperature range of 1-20°C from the Pacific, Mediterranean, Bahamas, and the Atlantic, and measured the clumped isotope composition of 11 different species of benthic foraminifera. We find that there are indeed no discernible species-specific differences within the sample set. In addition, the samples have the same temperature response to the proxy as inorganic carbonate samples over the same temperature range. As a result, we can now apply this proxy to a wide range of samples and foraminifera species from different ocean basins with different ocean chemistry and be confident that observed signals reflect variations in temperature.

An improved CCA-secure conditional proxy re-encryption without pairings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yanni; He, Mingxing; Li, Xiao; Xing, Pengfei

2014-10-01

In order to solve fine-grained delegation, the definition of conditional proxy re-encryption was proposed and soon draws a lot of attention in recent years. All of the existing schemes except one are based on bilinear pairings, which computation is costly. We point out that the only one existing conditional proxy re-encryption scheme without pairings can not solve fine-grained delegation essentially. Then we propose a new property of conditional proxy re-encryption scheme, that is non-diffusibility, that means if the proxy with a re-encryption key under one condition conclude with delegatee, they can obtain the re-encryption keys under any other conditions. We also propose a concrete CCA-secure conditional proxy re-encryption scheme without pairings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first CCA-secure conditional proxy re-encryption scheme without pairings, which satisfies the non-diffusibility property.

A Quantum Multi-Proxy Weak Blind Signature Scheme Based on Entanglement Swapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, LiLi; Chang, Yan; Zhang, ShiBin; Han, GuiHua; Sheng, ZhiWei

2017-02-01

In this paper, we present a multi-proxy weak blind signature scheme based on quantum entanglement swapping of Bell states. In the scheme, proxy signers can finish the signature instead of original singer with his/her authority. It can be applied to the electronic voting system, electronic paying system, etc. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement delegation, signature and verification. It could guarantee not only the unconditionally security but also the anonymity of the message owner. The security analysis shows the scheme satisfies the security features of multi-proxy weak signature, singers cannot disavowal his/her signature while the signature cannot be forged by others, and the message owner can be traced.

Quantifying the effect of seasonal and vertical habitat tracking on planktonic foraminifera proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonkers, Lukas; Kučera, Michal

2017-06-01

The composition of planktonic foraminiferal (PF) calcite is routinely used to reconstruct climate variability. However, PF ecology leaves a large imprint on the proxy signal: seasonal and vertical habitats of PF species vary spatially, causing variable offsets from annual mean surface conditions recorded by sedimentary assemblages. PF seasonality changes with temperature in a way that minimises the environmental change that individual species experience and it is not unlikely that changes in depth habitat also result from such habitat tracking. While this behaviour could lead to an underestimation of spatial or temporal trends as well as of variability in proxy records, most palaeoceanographic studies are (implicitly) based on the assumption of a constant habitat. Up to now, the effect of habitat tracking on foraminifera proxy records has not yet been formally quantified on a global scale. Here we attempt to characterise this effect on the amplitude of environmental change recorded in sedimentary PF using core top δ18O data from six species. We find that the offset from mean annual near-surface δ18O values varies with temperature, with PF δ18O indicating warmer than mean conditions in colder waters (on average by -0.1 ‰ (equivalent to 0.4 °C) per °C), thus providing a first-order quantification of the degree of underestimation due to habitat tracking. We use an empirical model to estimate the contribution of seasonality to the observed difference between PF and annual mean δ18O and use the residual Δδ18O to assess trends in calcification depth. Our analysis indicates that given an observation-based model parametrisation calcification depth increases with temperature in all species and sensitivity analysis suggests that a temperature-related seasonal habitat adjustment is essential to explain the observed isotope signal. Habitat tracking can thus lead to a significant reduction in the amplitude of recorded environmental change. However, we show that this behaviour is predictable. This allows accounting for habitat tracking, enabling more meaningful reconstructions and improved data-model comparison.

Improving dynamic phytoplankton reserve-utilization models with an indirect proxy for internal nitrogen.

PubMed

Malerba, Martino E; Heimann, Kirsten; Connolly, Sean R

2016-09-07

Ecologists have often used indirect proxies to represent variables that are difficult or impossible to measure directly. In phytoplankton, the internal concentration of the most limiting nutrient in a cell determines its growth rate. However, directly measuring the concentration of nutrients within cells is inaccurate, expensive, destructive, and time-consuming, substantially impairing our ability to model growth rates in nutrient-limited phytoplankton populations. The red chlorophyll autofluorescence (hereafter "red fluorescence") signal emitted by a cell is highly correlated with nitrogen quota in nitrogen-limited phytoplankton species. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of including flow cytometric red fluorescence as a proxy for internal nitrogen status to model phytoplankton growth rates. To this end, we used the classic Quota model and designed three approaches to calibrate its model parameters to data: where empirical observations on cell internal nitrogen quota were used to fit the model ("Nitrogen-Quota approach"), where quota dynamics were inferred only from changes in medium nutrient depletion and population density ("Virtual-Quota approach"), or where red fluorescence emission of a cell was used as an indirect proxy for its internal nitrogen quota ("Fluorescence-Quota approach"). Two separate analyses were carried out. In the first analysis, stochastic model simulations were parameterized from published empirical relationships and used to generate dynamics of phytoplankton communities reared under nitrogen-limited conditions. Quota models were fitted to the dynamics of each simulated species with the three different approaches and the performance of each model was compared. In the second analysis, we fit Quota models to laboratory time-series and we calculate the ability of each calibration approach to describe the observed trajectories of internal nitrogen quota in the culture. Results from both analyses concluded that the Fluorescence-Quota approach including per-cell red fluorescence as a proxy of internal nitrogen substantially improved the ability of Quota models to describe phytoplankton dynamics, while still accounting for the biologically important process of cell nitrogen storage. More broadly, many population models in ecology implicitly recognize the importance of accounting for storage mechanisms to describe the dynamics of individual organisms. Hence, the approach documented here with phytoplankton dynamics may also be useful for evaluating the potential of indirect proxies in other ecological systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-resolution Atmospheric pCO2 Reconstruction across the Paleogene Using Marine and Terrestrial δ13C records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Y.; Schubert, B.

2016-02-01

The early Paleogene (63 to 47 Ma) is considered to have a greenhouse climate1 with proxies suggesting atmospheric CO2 levels (pCO2) approximately 2× pre-industrial levels. However, the proxy based pCO2 reconstructions are limited and do not allow for assessment of changes in pCO2 at million to sub-million year time scales. It has recently been recognized that changes in C3 land plant carbon isotope fractionation can be used as a proxy for pCO2 with quantifiable uncertainty2. Here, we present a high-resolution pCO2 reconstruction (n = 597) across the early Paleogene using published carbon isotope data from both terrestrial organic matter and marine carbonates. The minimum and maximum pCO2 values reconstructed using this method are broad (i.e., 170 +60/-40 ppmv to 2000 +4480/-1060 ppmv) and reflective of the wide range of environments sampled. However, the large number of measurements allows for a robust estimate of average pCO2 during this time interval ( 400 +260/-120 ppmv), and indicates brief (sub-million-year) excursions to very high pCO2 during hyperthermal events (e.g., the PETM). By binning our high-resolution pCO2 data at 1 million year intervals, we can compare our dataset to the other available pCO2 proxies. Our result is broadly consistent with pCO2 levels reconstructed using other proxies, with the exception of paleosol-based pCO2 estimates spanning 53 to 50 Ma. At this timescale, no proxy suggests pCO2 higher than 2000 ppmv, whereas the global surface ocean temperature is considered to be >10 oC warmer than today. Recent climate modeling suggests that low atmospheric pressure during this time period could help reconcile the apparent disconnect between pCO2 and temperature and contribute to the greenhouse climate3. References1. Huber, M., Caballero, R., 2011. Climate of the Past 7, 603-633. 2. Schubert, B.A., Jahren, A.H., 2015. Geology 43, 435-438. 3. Poulsen, C.J., Tabor, C., White, J.D., 2015. Science 348, 1238-1241.

Agreement between Internet-based self- and proxy-reported health care resource utilization and administrative health care claims.

PubMed

Palmer, Liisa; Johnston, Stephen S; Rousculp, Matthew D; Chu, Bong-Chul; Nichol, Kristin L; Mahadevia, Parthiv J

2012-05-01

Although Internet-based surveys are becoming more common, little is known about agreement between administrative claims data and Internet-based survey self- and proxy-reported health care resource utilization (HCRU) data. This analysis evaluated the level of agreement between self- and proxy-reported HCRU data, as recorded through an Internet-based survey, and administrative claims-based HCRU data. The Child and Household Influenza-Illness and Employee Function study collected self- and proxy-reported HCRU data monthly between November 2007 and May 2008. Data included the occurrence and number of visits to hospitals, emergency departments, urgent care centers, and outpatient offices for a respondent's and his or her household members' care. Administrative claims data from the MarketScan® Databases were assessed during the same time and evaluated relative to survey-based metrics. Only data for individuals with employer-sponsored health care coverage linkable to claims were included. The Kappa (κ) statistic was used to evaluate visit concordance, and the intraclass correlation coefficient was used to describe frequency consistency. Agreement for presence of a health care visit and the number of visits were similar for self- and proxy-reported HCRU data. There was moderate to substantial agreement related to health care visit occurrence between survey-based and claims-based HCRU data for inpatient, emergency department, and office visits (κ: 0.47-0.77). There was less agreement on health care visit frequencies, with intraclass correlation coefficient values ranging from 0.14 to 0.71. This study's agreement values suggest that Internet-based surveys are an effective method to collect self- and proxy-reported HCRU data. These results should increase confidence in the use of the Internet for evaluating disease burden. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model

PubMed Central

Ammann, Caspar M.; Joos, Fortunat; Schimel, David S.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Tomas, Robert A.

2007-01-01

The potential role of solar variations in modulating recent climate has been debated for many decades and recent papers suggest that solar forcing may be less than previously believed. Because solar variability before the satellite period must be scaled from proxy data, large uncertainty exists about phase and magnitude of the forcing. We used a coupled climate system model to determine whether proxy-based irradiance series are capable of inducing climatic variations that resemble variations found in climate reconstructions, and if part of the previously estimated large range of past solar irradiance changes could be excluded. Transient simulations, covering the published range of solar irradiance estimates, were integrated from 850 AD to the present. Solar forcing as well as volcanic and anthropogenic forcing are detectable in the model results despite internal variability. The resulting climates are generally consistent with temperature reconstructions. Smaller, rather than larger, long-term trends in solar irradiance appear more plausible and produced modeled climates in better agreement with the range of Northern Hemisphere temperature proxy records both with respect to phase and magnitude. Despite the direct response of the model to solar forcing, even large solar irradiance change combined with realistic volcanic forcing over past centuries could not explain the late 20th century warming without inclusion of greenhouse gas forcing. Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century. PMID:17360418

The Gephyrocapsa Sea Surface Paleothermometer Put To The Test: Comparison With Alkenone and Foraminifera Proxies Off NW Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderiks, J.; Bollmann, J.

In Holocene deep-sea sediments, the relative abundance of different morphotypes within the coccolithophore genus Gephyrocapsa is closely correlated with sea sur- face temperature (Bollmann, 1997). Based on this relationship, a regional temperature transfer function was established using a set of 35 Holocene sediments from the NE Atlantic, covering a temperature range from 14C to 24C. Using this approach, ab- solute annual mean sea surface temperatures for a given location can be calculated from the relative abundance of two Gephyrocapsa morphotypes, Gephyrocapsa Cold and Gephyrocapsa Equatorial, with a standard deviation of +/-1.06C. A global regres- sion model (N=110) was applied as well, which calculates absolute mean sea surface temperatures from the relative abundance of three Gephyrocapsa morphotypes, with a standard deviation of +/-1.78C. Using both calibration models, we have estimated sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum in a dispersed set of eigh- teen well-dated gravity cores off NW Africa (16-35N; 20-8W). The regional model revealed that annual mean temperatures during the LGM were 4 to 6C colder than today in the Canary Islands region, with lowest temperatures (14-15.5C) off-shore Morocco and south of the volcanic islands, likely due to intensified upwelling related to stronger trade winds. These values are consistent with estimates from the CLIMAP Project (1981) and other paleotemperature reconstructions for the same region. In con- trast, offshore Cape Blanc, our temperature estimates for the LGM are significantly warmer (Ttoday -LGM <4C) than proposed by CLIMAP (Ttoday -LGM 6-10C). Nevertheless, our results support temperature reconstructions based on alkenones that also indicate rather small temperature changes (Ttoday -LGM <3C) in this area (e.g. Zhao et al., 2000). Glacial sea surface temperature estimates derived from the global calibration are on average 1C warmer than those derived from the regional model. However, the overall geographic patterns and temperature gradients for both reconstructions are very similar. To compare our Gephyrocapsa proxy with other pa- leotemperature proxies, we investigated a down-core record off Cape Blanc (GeoB 1048; 2055 N, 1943 W) in the vicinity of BOFS core 31K (1900 N, 2010 W). For the latter core, a detailed multiproxy paleotemperature record already exists based on alkenones, Mg/Ca ratios in foraminiferal calcite and planktic foraminifera assem- 1 blages (Chapman et al., 1996; Elderfield Ganssen, 2000). Here, we show an especially good and consistent correspondence between our new proxy and alkenones, reflecting the fact that both proxies originated from the phytoplankton community. References Bollmann, Marine Micropaleontology 29 (3/4), 319-350 (1997). Chapman et al. Paleoceanography 11, 343-357 (1996). Elderfield Ganssen. Nature 405, 442-445 (2000). Zhao et al. Organic Geochemistry 31, 919-930 (2000). 2

Satellite chlorophyll fluorescence measurements reveal large-scale decoupling of photosynthesis and greenness dynamics in boreal evergreen forests.

PubMed

Walther, Sophia; Voigt, Maximilian; Thum, Tea; Gonsamo, Alemu; Zhang, Yongguang; Köhler, Philipp; Jung, Martin; Varlagin, Andrej; Guanter, Luis

2016-09-01

Mid-to-high latitude forests play an important role in the terrestrial carbon cycle, but the representation of photosynthesis in boreal forests by current modelling and observational methods is still challenging. In particular, the applicability of existing satellite-based proxies of greenness to indicate photosynthetic activity is hindered by small annual changes in green biomass of the often evergreen tree population and by the confounding effects of background materials such as snow. As an alternative, satellite measurements of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) can be used as a direct proxy of photosynthetic activity. In this study, the start and end of the photosynthetically active season of the main boreal forests are analysed using spaceborne SIF measurements retrieved from the GOME-2 instrument and compared to that of green biomass, proxied by vegetation indices including the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) derived from MODIS data. We find that photosynthesis and greenness show a similar seasonality in deciduous forests. In high-latitude evergreen needleleaf forests, however, the length of the photosynthetically active period indicated by SIF is up to 6 weeks longer than the green biomass changing period proxied by EVI, with SIF showing a start-of-season of approximately 1 month earlier than EVI. On average, the photosynthetic spring recovery as signalled by SIF occurs as soon as air temperatures exceed the freezing point (2-3 °C) and when the snow on the ground has not yet completely melted. These findings are supported by model data of gross primary production and a number of other studies which evaluated in situ observations of CO2 fluxes, meteorology and the physiological state of the needles. Our results demonstrate the sensitivity of space-based SIF measurements to light-use efficiency of boreal forests and their potential for an unbiased detection of photosynthetic activity even under the challenging conditions interposed by evergreen boreal ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Objective spatiotemporal proxy-model comparisons of the Asian monsoon for the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Ammann, C. M.; Buckley, B. M.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Jacoby, G.; Wright, W. E.; Davi, N.; Li, J.

2008-12-01

The Asian monsoon system can be studied using a complementary proxy/simulation approach which evaluates climate models using estimates of past precipitation and temperature, and which subsequently applies the best understanding of the physics of the climate system as captured in general circulation models to evaluate the broad-scale dynamics behind regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we use a millennial-length climate field reconstruction of monsoon season summer (JJA) drought, developed from tree- ring proxies, with coupled climate simulations from NCAR CSM1.4 and CCSM3 to evaluate the cause of large- scale persistent droughts over the last one thousand years. Direct comparisons are made between the external forced response within the climate model and the spatiotemporal field reconstruction. In order to identify patterns of drought associated with internal variability in the climate system, we use a model/proxy analog technique which objectively selects epochs in the model that most closely reproduce those observed in the reconstructions. The concomitant ocean-atmosphere dynamics are then interpreted in order to identify and understand the internal climate system forcing of low frequency monsoon variability. We examine specific periods of extensive or intensive regional drought in the 15th, 17th, and 18th centuries, many of which are coincident with major cultural changes in the region.

From local spectral measurements to maps of vegetation cover and biomass on the Qinghai-Tibet-Plateau: Do we need hyperspectral information?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Hanna; Lehnert, Lukas W.; Wang, Yun; Reudenbach, Christoph; Nauss, Thomas; Bendix, Jörg

2017-03-01

Though the relevance of pasture degradation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is widely postulated, its extent is still unknown. Due to the enormous spatial extent, remote sensing provides the only possibility to investigate pasture degradation via frequently used proxies such as vegetation cover and aboveground biomass (AGB). However, unified remote sensing approaches are still lacking. This study tests the applicability of hyper- and multispectral in situ measurements to map vegetation cover and AGB on regional scales. Using machine learning techniques, it is tested whether the full hyperspectral information is needed or if multispectral information is sufficient to accurately estimate pasture degradation proxies. To regionalize pasture degradation proxies, the transferability of the locally derived ML-models to high resolution multispectral satellite data is assessed. 1183 hyperspectral measurements and vegetation records were performed at 18 locations on the QTP. Random Forests models with recursive feature selection were trained to estimate vegetation cover and AGB using narrow-band indices (NBI) as predictors. Separate models were calculated using NBI from hyperspectral data as well as from the same data resampled to WorldView-2, QuickBird and RapidEye channels. The hyperspectral results were compared to the multispectral results. Finally, the models were applied to satellite data to map vegetation cover and AGB on a regional scale. Vegetation cover was accurately predicted by Random Forest if hyperspectral measurements were used (cross validated R2 = 0.89). In contrast, errors in AGB estimations were considerably higher (cross validated R2 = 0.32). Only small differences in accuracy were observed between the models based on hyperspectral compared to multispectral data. The application of the models to satellite images generally resulted in an increase of the estimation error. Though this reflects the challenge of applying in situ measurements to satellite data, the results still show a high potential to map pasture degradation proxies on the QTP. Thus, this study presents robust methodology to remotely detect and monitor pasture degradation at high spatial resolutions.

Astrostatistical Analysis in Solar and Stellar Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenning, David Craig

This dissertation focuses on developing statistical models and methods to address data-analytic challenges in astrostatistics---a growing interdisciplinary field fostering collaborations between statisticians and astrophysicists. The astrostatistics projects we tackle can be divided into two main categories: modeling solar activity and Bayesian analysis of stellar evolution. These categories from Part I and Part II of this dissertation, respectively. The first line of research we pursue involves classification and modeling of evolving solar features. Advances in space-based observatories are increasing both the quality and quantity of solar data, primarily in the form of high-resolution images. To analyze massive streams of solar image data, we develop a science-driven dimension reduction methodology to extract scientifically meaningful features from images. This methodology utilizes mathematical morphology to produce a concise numerical summary of the magnetic flux distribution in solar "active regions'' that (i) is far easier to work with than the source images, (ii) encapsulates scientifically relevant information in a more informative manner than existing schemes (i.e., manual classification schemes), and (iii) is amenable to sophisticated statistical analyses. In a related line of research, we perform a Bayesian analysis of the solar cycle using multiple proxy variables, such as sunspot numbers. We take advantage of patterns and correlations among the proxy variables to model solar activity using data from proxies that have become available more recently, while also taking advantage of the long history of observations of sunspot numbers. This model is an extension of the Yu et al. (2012) Bayesian hierarchical model for the solar cycle that used the sunspot numbers alone. Since proxies have different temporal coverage, we devise a multiple imputation scheme to account for missing data. We find that incorporating multiple proxies reveals important features of the solar cycle that are missed when the model is fit using only the sunspot numbers. In Part II of this dissertation we focus on two related lines of research involving Bayesian analysis of stellar evolution. We first focus on modeling multiple stellar populations in star clusters. It has long been assumed that all star clusters are comprised of single stellar populations---stars that formed at roughly the same time from a common molecular cloud. However, recent studies have produced evidence that some clusters host multiple populations, which has far-reaching scientific implications. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for multiple-population star clusters, extending earlier statistical models of stellar evolution (e.g., van Dyk et al. 2009, Stein et al. 2013). We also devise an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to explore the complex posterior distribution. We use numerical studies to demonstrate that our method can recover parameters of multiple-population clusters, and also show how model misspecification can be diagnosed. Our model and computational tools are incorporated into an open-source software suite known as BASE-9. We also explore statistical properties of the estimators and determine that the influence of the prior distribution does not diminish with larger sample sizes, leading to non-standard asymptotics. In a final line of research, we present the first-ever attempt to estimate the carbon fraction of white dwarfs. This quantity has important implications for both astrophysics and fundamental nuclear physics, but is currently unknown. We use a numerical study to demonstrate that assuming an incorrect value for the carbon fraction leads to incorrect white-dwarf ages of star clusters. Finally, we present our attempt to estimate the carbon fraction of the white dwarfs in the well-studied star cluster 47 Tucanae.

Linking Concurrent Self-Reports and Retrospective Proxy Reports About the Last Year of Life: A Prevailing Picture of Life Satisfaction Decline

PubMed Central

Gerstorf, Denis; Ram, Nilam; Schupp, Jürgen; Sprangers, Mirjam A. G.; Wagner, Gert G.

2014-01-01

Objective. We examined the extent to which retrospective proxy reports of well-being mirror participant self-reports at 12–24 months before death and how proxy reports of well-being change over the last year of life. We also explored the role of sociodemographic, cognitive, and health factors of both participants and proxies in moderating such associations. Method. We used retrospective proxy ratings obtained in the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (N = 164; age at death = 19–99 years). Results. Results revealed moderate agreement between self- and proxy reports (r = .42), but proxies, on average, overestimated participants’ life satisfaction by two thirds of a scale point on a 0–10 scale (or 0.4 SD). Discrepancies were particularly pronounced when proxies themselves reported low life satisfaction. Over the last year of life, participants were viewed to have experienced declines in life satisfaction (−0.54 SD). Declines were stronger for ill participants and proxies who reported low life satisfaction. Discussion. Results qualify theoretical expectations and empirical results based on self-report data that are typically available 1 or 2 years before death. We discuss that retrospective proxy reports in panel surveys can be used as a hypothesis-generating tool to gather insights into late life. PMID:23766436

Hail detection algorithm for the Global Precipitation Measuring mission core satellite sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mroz, Kamil; Battaglia, Alessandro; Lang, Timothy J.; Tanelli, Simone; Cecil, Daniel J.; Tridon, Frederic

2017-04-01

By exploiting an abundant number of extreme storms observed simultaneously by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission core satellite's suite of sensors and by the ground-based S-band Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) network over continental US, proxies for the identification of hail are developed based on the GPM core satellite observables. The full capabilities of the GPM observatory are tested by analyzing more than twenty observables and adopting the hydrometeor classification based on ground-based polarimetric measurements as truth. The proxies have been tested using the Critical Success Index (CSI) as a verification measure. The hail detection algorithm based on the mean Ku reflectivity in the mixed-phase layer performs the best, out of all considered proxies (CSI of 45%). Outside the Dual frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) swath, the Polarization Corrected Temperature at 18.7 GHz shows the greatest potential for hail detection among all GMI channels (CSI of 26% at a threshold value of 261 K). When dual variable proxies are considered, the combination involving the mixed-phase reflectivity values at both Ku and Ka-bands outperforms all the other proxies, with a CSI of 49%. The best-performing radar-radiometer algorithm is based on the mixed-phase reflectivity at Ku-band and on the brightness temperature (TB) at 10.7 GHz (CSI of 46%). When only radiometric data are available, the algorithm based on the TBs at 36.6 and 166 GHz is the most efficient, with a CSI of 27.5%.

Expression of Aleutian Low variations by a proxy record of precipitation oxygen isotopes in the Matanuska-Susitna region on Cook Inlet, south central Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finney, B.; Anderson, L.; Engstrom, D. R.

2017-12-01

North Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes strongly influence the climatology of Alaska by altering the strength and position of the Aleutian Low. During the past decade, the development of oxygen isotope proxy records that reflect the isotope composition of precipitation has provided substantial evidence of hydroclimatic variability in Alaska in response to Aleutian Low variations during the Holocene. However, a clear understanding of how the isotopic composition of precipitation reflects Aleutian Low variations remains uncertain because modern and proxy observations and modeling studies provide different predictions for regions (coastal and interior), elevations (0 to 5000 m), and time-scales (seasonal to century) that cannot be adequately tested by existing data. Precipitation isotope proxy records from Mount Logan, Denali, Jellybean Lake and Horse Trail Fen provide valuable perspectives at high elevation and interior (leeward) locations but no data has been available from near sea level on the coastal (windward) side of the Alaska and Chugach Mountain Ranges. Here we present newly recovered marl lake sediment cores from the Matanuska-Susitna region of Knik Arm on Cook Inlet, near Wasilla, 50 km north of Anchorage, AK that provide complete de-glacial and Holocene records of precipitation oxygen isotopes. Geochronology is underway based on identification of known tephras and AMS radiocarbon dating of terrestrial macrofossils. Modern and historic sediments are dated by 210Pb. The groundwater fed site is hydrologically open, unaffected by evaporation, has exceptionally high rates of marl sedimentation and preliminary results indicate clearly defined oxygen isotope excursions in the late 1970's and early 1940's, periods when North Pacific ocean-atmosphere forcing of the Aleutian Low is known to have undergone shifts. These results help to evaluate contrasting models of atmospheric circulation and associated isotope fractionation which is critical for proxy interpretation of paleo-records.

A Third-Party E-payment Protocol Based on Quantum Multi-proxy Blind Signature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Xu-Feng; Zhang, Jian-Zhong; Xie, Shu-Cui; Chen, Bu-Qing

2018-05-01

A third-party E-payment protocol is presented in this paper. It is based on quantum multi-proxy blind signature. Adopting the techniques of quantum key distribution, one-time pad and quantum multi-proxy blind signature, our third-party E-payment system could protect user's anonymity as the traditional E-payment systems do, and also have unconditional security which the classical E-payment systems can not provide. Furthermore, compared with the existing quantum E-payment systems, the proposed system could support the E-payment which using the third-party platforms.

GOES-R AWG GLM Val Tool Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bateman, Monte; Mach, Douglas; Goodman, Steve; Blakeslee, Richard; Koshak, William

2012-01-01

We are developing tools needed to enable the validation of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). In order to develop and test these tools, we have need of a robust, high-fidelity set of GLM proxy data. Many steps have been taken to ensure that the proxy data are high quality. LIS is the closest analog that exists for GLM, so it has been used extensively in developing the GLM proxy. We have verified the proxy data both statistically and algorithmically. The proxy data are pixel (event) data, called Level 1B. These data were then clustered into flashes by the Lightning Cluster-Filter Algorithm (LCFA), generating proxy Level 2 data. These were then compared with the data used to generate the proxy, and both the proxy data and the LCFA were validated. We have developed tools to allow us to visualize and compare the GLM proxy data with several other sources of lightning and other meteorological data (the so-called shallow-dive tool). The shallow-dive tool shows storm-level data and can ingest many different ground-based lightning detection networks, including: NLDN, LMA, WWLLN, and ENTLN. These are presented in a way such that it can be seen if the GLM is properly detecting the lightning in location and time comparable to the ground-based networks. Currently in development is the deep-dive tool, which will allow us to dive into the GLM data, down to flash, group and event level. This will allow us to assess performance in comparison with other data sources, and tell us if there are detection, timing, or geolocation problems. These tools will be compatible with the GLM Level-2 data format, so they can be used beginning on Day 0.

A Proxy Design to Leverage the Interconnection of CoAP Wireless Sensor Networks with Web Applications

PubMed Central

Ludovici, Alessandro; Calveras, Anna

2015-01-01

In this paper, we present the design of a Constrained Application Protocol (CoAP) proxy able to interconnect Web applications based on Hypertext Transfer Protocol (HTTP) and WebSocket with CoAP based Wireless Sensor Networks. Sensor networks are commonly used to monitor and control physical objects or environments. Smart Cities represent applications of such a nature. Wireless Sensor Networks gather data from their surroundings and send them to a remote application. This data flow may be short or long lived. The traditional HTTP long-polling used by Web applications may not be adequate in long-term communications. To overcome this problem, we include the WebSocket protocol in the design of the CoAP proxy. We evaluate the performance of the CoAP proxy in terms of latency and memory consumption. The tests consider long and short-lived communications. In both cases, we evaluate the performance obtained by the CoAP proxy according to the use of WebSocket and HTTP long-polling. PMID:25585107

Simulations of Western North American Hydroclimate during the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, S. M.; Mann, M. E.; Steinman, B. A.; Feng, S.; Zhang, Y.; Miller, S. K.

2013-12-01

Despite the immense impact that large, modern North American droughts, such as those of the 1930s and 1950s, have had on economic, social, aquacultural, and agricultural systems, they are smaller in duration and magnitude than the multidecadal megadroughts that affected North America, in particular the western United States, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, ~ 900-1300 AD) and the Little Age (LIA, ~1450-1850 AD). Although various proxy records have been used to reconstruct the timing of these MCA and LIA megadroughts in the western United States, there still exists great uncertainty in the magnitude and spatial coherence of such droughts in the Pacific Northwest region, especially on decadal to centennial timescales. This uncertainty motivates the following study to establish a causal link between the climate forcing that induced these megadroughts and the spatiotemporal response of regional North American hydroclimates to this forcing. This study seeks to establish a better understanding of the influence of tropical Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs on North American drought during the MCA and LIA. We force NCAR's Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1.1 (CAM 5) with prescribed proxy-reconstructed tropical Pacific and North Atlantic SST anomalies from the MCA and LIA, in order to investigate the influence that these SST anomalies had on the spatiotemporal patterns of drought in North America. To isolate the effects of individual ocean basin SSTs on the North American climate system, the model experiments use a variety of SST permutations in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic basin as external forcing. In order to quantify the spatiotemporal response of the North American climate system to these SST forcing permutations, temperature and precipitation data derived from the MCA and LIA model experiments are compared to lake sediment isotope and tree ring-based hydroclimate reconstructions from the Pacific Northwest. The spatiotemporal temperature and precipitation patterns from the model experiments indicate that in the Pacific Northwest, the MCA and LIA were anomalously wet and dry periods, respectively, a finding that is largely supported by the lake sediment records. This pattern contrasts with the dry MCA/wet LIA pattern diagnosed in model experiments for the U.S Southwest and indicated by tree ring-based proxy data. Thus, the CAM 5 model experiments confirm the wet/dry dipole pattern suggested by proxy data for the western U.S. during the MCA and LIA and highlights the role that the natural variability of tropical Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs played in driving this spatiotemporal climate pattern and its related teleconnections.

North Atlantic Oscillation dynamics recorded in shells of a long-lived bivalve mollusk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöne, Bernd R.; Oschmann, Wolfgang; Rössler, Jochen; Freyre Castro, Antuané D.; Houk, Stephen D.; Kröncke, Ingrid; Dreyer, Wolfgang; Janssen, Ronald; Rumohr, Heye; Dunca, Elena

2003-12-01

Existing reconstructions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (WNAO) are based on terrestrial proxies and historical documents. No direct high-resolution, long-term rec ords from marine settings are available for this major climate-dictating phenomenon, which severely affects a variety of economic aspects of our society. Here we present a 245 yr proxy WNAO index based on shells of the long-lived marine bivalve mollusk Arctica islandica. Variations in annual rates of shell growth are positively correlated with WNAO-related changes in the food supply. Maximum amplitudes in frequency bands of 7 9 and 5 7 yr fall exactly within the range of instrumental and other proxy WNAO indices. These estimates were obtained for specimens collected live, 2000 km apart, in the central North Sea and on the Norwegian Shelf. Hence, the WNAO influences hydrographic regimes of large regions of the ocean. Our study demonstrates that A. islandica can reliably reconstruct WNAO dynamics for time intervals and regions without instrumental records. Our new tool functions as a proxy for the WNAO index prior to the twentieth-century greenhouse forcing and has the potential to further validate other proxy-based WNAO records.

Coral skeletal geochemistry as a monitor of inshore water quality.

PubMed

Saha, Narottam; Webb, Gregory E; Zhao, Jian-Xin

2016-10-01

Coral reefs maintain extraordinary biodiversity and provide protection from tsunamis and storm surge, but inshore coral reef health is degrading in many regions due to deteriorating water quality. Deconvolving natural and anthropogenic changes to water quality is hampered by the lack of long term, dated water quality data but such records are required for forward modelling of reef health to aid their management. Reef corals provide an excellent archive of high resolution geochemical (trace element) proxies that can span hundreds of years and potentially provide records used through the Holocene. Hence, geochemical proxies in corals hold great promise for understanding changes in ancient water quality that can inform broader oceanographic and climatic changes in a given region. This article reviews and highlights the use of coral-based trace metal archives, including metal transported from rivers to the ocean, incorporation of trace metals into coral skeletons and the current 'state of the art' in utilizing coral trace metal proxies as tools for monitoring various types of local and regional source-specific pollution (river discharge, land use changes, dredging and dumping, mining, oil spills, antifouling paints, atmospheric sources, sewage). The three most commonly used coral trace element proxies (i.e., Ba/Ca, Mn/Ca, and Y/Ca) are closely associated with river runoff in the Great Barrier Reef, but considerable uncertainty remains regarding their complex biogeochemical cycling and controlling mechanisms. However, coral-based water quality reconstructions have suffered from a lack of understanding of so-called vital effects and early marine diagenesis. The main challenge is to identify and eliminate the influence of extraneous local factors in order to allow accurate water quality reconstructions and to develop alternate proxies to monitor water pollution. Rare earth elements have great potential as they are self-referencing and reflect basic terrestrial input. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationship between physical performance and self-reported function in healthy individuals across the lifespan.

PubMed

Baldwin, Jennifer N; McKay, Marnee J; Hiller, Claire E; Moloney, Niamh; Nightingale, Elizabeth J; Burns, Joshua

2017-08-01

Functional outcome measures in clinical trials of musculoskeletal conditions need to be meaningful to individuals. To investigate the relationship between physical performance and self/proxy-reported function in 1000 healthy children and adults. Cross-sectional observational study (1000 Norms Project). One thousand males and females aged 3-101 years, healthy by self-report and without major physical disability, were recruited. Twelve performance-based tests were analysed: vertical and long jump, two hand dexterity tests, four balance tests, stepping reaction time, 30-second chair stand, timed up-and-down stairs, and six-minute walk. Self/proxy-reported function was assessed using the Infant-Toddler Quality of Life questionnaire, Child Health Questionnaire, Assessment of Quality of Life (AQoL)-6D Adolescent, AQoL-8D, International Physical Activity Questionnaire and work ability question. Bivariate and multivariate correlational analyses were constructed for infants (3-4y), children (5-10y), adolescents (11-17y), adults (18-59y) and older adults (60+). Socio-demographic characteristics were similar to the Australian population. Among infants/children, greater jump and sit-to-stand performance correlated with higher proxy-reported function (p < 0.05). There were no significant relationships observed for adolescents (p > 0.05). Greater jump, dexterity, balance, reaction time, sit-to-stand, stair-climbing and six-minute walk performance correlated with higher self-reported function in adults (r = -0.097 to.231; p < 0.05) and older adults (r = -0.135 to 0.625; p < 0.05). Multivariate regression modelling revealed a collection of independent performance measures explaining up to 46% of the variance in self/proxy-reported function. Many performance-based tests were significantly associated with self/proxy-reported function. We have identified a set of physical measures which could form the basis of age-appropriate functional scales for clinical trials of musculoskeletal conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the Regression Effect Using a Latent Trait Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quinn, Jimmy L.

A logistic model was used to generate data to serve as a proxy for an immediate retest from item responses to a fourth grade standardized reading comprehension test of 45 items. Assuming that the actual test may be considered a pretest and the proxy data may be considered a retest, the effect of regression was investigated using a percentage of…

Evaluation of metallothionein formation as a proxy for zinc absorption in an in vitro digestion/caco-2 cell culture model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Caco-2 cell metallothionein (MT) formation was studied to determine if MT could be used as a proxy for zinc (Zn) absorption in a cell culture model. MT intracellular concentration was determined by using a cadmium/hemoglobin affinity assay. Cellular Zn uptake was determined in acid digests (5% HNO3)...

Creating an index to measure health state of depressed patients in automated healthcare databases: the methodology

PubMed Central

François, Clément; Tanasescu, Adrian; Lamy, François-Xavier; Despiegel, Nicolas; Falissard, Bruno; Chalem, Ylana; Lançon, Christophe; Llorca, Pierre-Michel; Saragoussi, Delphine; Verpillat, Patrice; Wade, Alan G.; Zighed, Djamel A.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background and objective: Automated healthcare databases (AHDB) are an important data source for real life drug and healthcare use. In the filed of depression, lack of detailed clinical data requires the use of binary proxies with important limitations. The study objective was to create a Depressive Health State Index (DHSI) as a continuous health state measure for depressed patients using available data in an AHDB. Methods: The study was based on historical cohort design using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Depressive episodes (depression diagnosis with an antidepressant prescription) were used to create the DHSI through 6 successive steps: (1) Defining study design; (2) Identifying constituent parameters; (3) Assigning relative weights to the parameters; (4) Ranking based on the presence of parameters; (5) Standardizing the rank of the DHSI; (6) Developing a regression model to derive the DHSI in any other sample. Results: The DHSI ranged from 0 (worst) to 100 (best health state) comprising 29 parameters. The proportion of depressive episodes with a remission proxy increased with DHSI quartiles. Conclusion: A continuous outcome for depressed patients treated by antidepressants was created in an AHDB using several different variables and allowed more granularity than currently used proxies. PMID:29081921

South American Monsoon variability during the past 2,000 years from stable isotopic proxies and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuille, M.; Cruz, F. W.; Abbott, M.; Bird, B. W.; Burns, S. J.; Cheng, H.; Colose, C. M.; Kanner, L. C.; LeGrande, A. N.; Novello, V. F.; Taylor, B. L.

2012-12-01

The rapidly growing number of high-resolution stable isotopic proxies from speleothems, ice cores and lake sediments, located in the South American summer monsoon (SASM) belt, will soon allow for a comprehensive analysis of climate variability in the South American tropics and subtropics over the past ~ 2000 years. In combination with isotope-enabled General Circulation Models (GCMs) this offers new prospects for better understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of the South American monsoon system and for diagnosing its sensitivities to external forcing mechanisms (solar, volcanic) and modes of ocean-atmosphere variability (e.g. ENSO and AMO). In this presentation we will discuss the rationale for interpreting isotopic excursions recorded in various proxies from the Andes, northeastern and southeastern Brazil as indicative of changes in monsoon intensity. We will focus on the past 2 millenia when isotopic proxies from the SASM region show a very coherent behavior regardless of the type of archive or their location. All proxies exhibit significant decadal to multidecadal variability, superimposed on large excursions during three key periods, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Current Warm Period (CWP). We interpret these three periods as times when the SASM mean state was significantly weakened (MCA and CWP) and strengthened (LIA), respectively. During the LIA each of the proxy archives considered contains the most negative delta-18O values recorded during the entire record length. On the other hand the monsoon strength is currently rather weak in a 2000- year historical perspective, rivaled only by the low intensity during the MCA. One interpretation of these centennial-scale climate anomalies suggests that they were at least partially driven by temperature changes in the northern hemisphere and in particular over the North Atlantic, leading to a latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ and a change in monsoon intensity and degree of rainout upstream of the proxy locations, over the tropical continent. This interpretation is supported by several independent proxy archives and modeling studies. One question that remains, however, is how ENSO, arguably the main forcing factor for delta-18O variability over tropical South America on interannual time scales, interacts with and may be modulated by low-frequency North Atlantic forcing. Our analysis also implies that isotopic proxies, because of their ability to integrate climatic information on large spatial scales, are complementary to more traditional proxies such as tree rings or historical archives, which record in-situ climate variations. Future climate reconstructions therefore should make an effort to include isotopic proxies as large-scale predictors in order to better constrain past changes in the atmospheric circulation.

Constant Flux Proxies and Pleistocene Sediment Accumulation Rates on the Juan de Fuca Ridge in the Northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middleton, J. L.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Langmuir, C. H.; Costa, K.; McManus, J. F.; d'Almeida, M.; Huybers, P. J.; Winckler, G.

2016-12-01

Mass accumulation rates of marine sediments are often employed to constrain deposition rates of important proxies such as terrigenous dust, carbonate, and biogenic opal to quantitatively examine variations in continental aridity, atmospheric transport, and biologic productivity across changing climatic conditions. However, deposition rates that are estimated using traditional mass accumulation rates calculated from sediment core age models can be subject to bias from lateral sediment transport and limited age model resolution. Constant flux proxies, such as extraterrestrial helium-3 (3HeET) and excess thorium-230 (230ThXS), can be used to calculate vertical sediment accumulation rates that are independent of age model uncertainties and the effects of lateral sediment transport. While a short half-life limits analyses of 230ThXS to the past 500 ka, 3HeET is stable and could be used to constrain sedimentary fluxes during much of the Cenozoic. Despite the vast paleoceanographic potential of constant flux proxies, few studies have directly compared the behavior of 230ThXS and 3HeET using measurements from the same samples. Sediment grain size fractionation and local scavenging effects may differentially bias one or both proxy systems and complicate the interpretation of 230ThXS or 3HeET data. We will present a new record of vertical sediment accumulation rates spanning the past 600 ka in the Northeast Pacific constrained using analyses of both 3HeET and 230ThXS in two sediment cores from cruise AT26-19 on the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Such a record allows for intercomparison of both constant flux proxies in the mid-ocean ridge environment and examination of sedimentary behavior across multiple glacial cycles. The 230ThXS-derived accumulation rates typically range from 0.5 to 2 g cm-2 ka-1 over the past 450 ka, with periods of maximum deposition coinciding with glacial maxima. Preliminary results of samples analyzed with both 3HeET and 230ThXS indicate relative consistency between vertical sediment accumulation rates computed from each proxy and encourage the use of these constant flux proxies in other sedimentary records.

Modeling the influence of a reduced equator-to-pole sea surface temperature gradient on the distribution of water isotopes in the Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Speelman, E. N.; Sewall, J. O.; Noone, D. C.; Huber, M.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.; Reichart, G.

2009-12-01

Proxy-based climate reconstructions suggest the existence of a strongly reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient during most of the Early Eocene. With the realization that the Eocene Arctic Ocean was covered with enormous quantities of the free floating freshwater fern Azolla, new questions related to Eocene (global) hydrological cycling facilitating these blooms arose. Changes in hydrological cycling, as a consequence of a reduced temperature gradient, are expected to be most clearly reflected in the isotopic composition (D, 18O) of precipitation. The interpretation of water isotopic records to quantitatively estimate past precipitation patterns is, however, hampered by the lack of detailed information on changes in their spatial and temporal distribution. Using the isotope-enabled global circulation model, Community Atmosphere Model v.3 (isoCAM3), relationships between water isotopes and past climates can be simulated. Here we examine the influence of a reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradient on the spatial distribution of precipitation and its isotopic composition in an Eocene setting. Overall, our combination of Eocene climate forcings, with superimposed TEX86-derived SST estimates and elevated pCO2 concentrations, produces a climate that agrees well with proxy data in locations around the globe. It shows the presence of an intensified hydrological cycle with precipitation exceeding evaporation in the Arctic region. The Eocene model runs with a significantly reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient in a warmer more humid world predict occurrence of less depleted precipitation, with δD values ranging only between 0 and -140‰ (as opposed to the present-day range of 0 to -300‰). Combining new results obtained from compound specific isotope analyses on terrestrially derived n-alkanes extracted from Eocene sediments, and model calculations, shows that the model not only captures the main features, but reproduces isotopic values quantitatively as well. This combination of modeling outcomes and independent stable isotope records thus confirms independently the validity of the earlier, proxy-based, inferred reduced meridional temperature gradient.

Late Quaternary Variability of Arctic Sea Ice: Insights From Biomarker Proxy Records and Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, R. H.; Fahl, K.; Gierz, P.; Niessen, F.; Lohmann, G.

2017-12-01

Over the last about four decades, coinciding with global warming and atmospheric CO2increase, the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has decreased dramatically, a decrease much more rapid than predicted by climate models. The driving forces of this change are still not fully understood. In this context, detailed paleoclimatic records going back beyond the timescale of direct observations, i.e., high-resolution Holocene records but also records representing more distant warm periods, may help to to distinguish and quantify more precisely the natural and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing of global climate change and related sea ice decrease. Here, we concentrate on sea ice biomarker records representing the penultimate glacial/last interglacial (MIS 6/MIS 5e) and the Holocene time intervals. Our proxy records are compared with climate model simulations using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Based on our data, polynya-type sea ice conditions probably occurred off the major ice sheets along the northern Barents and East Siberian continental margins during late MIS 6. Furthermore, we demonstrate that even during MIS 5e, i.e., a time interval when the high latitudes have been significantly warmer than today, sea ice existed in the central Arctic Ocean during summer, whereas sea ice was significantly reduced along the Barents Sea continental margin influenced by Atlantic Water inflow. Assuming a closed Bering Strait (no Pacific Water inflow) during early MIS 5, model simulations point to a significantly reduced sea ice cover in the central Arctic Ocean, a scenario that is however not supported by the proxy record and thus seems to be less realistic. Our Holocene biomarker proxy records from the Chukchi Sea indicate that main factors controlling the millennial Holocene variability in sea ice are probably changes in surface water and heat flow from the Pacific into the Arctic Ocean as well as the long-term decrease in summer insolation. Here, increased Pacific Water inflow (and heat flux) may have triggered the contemporaneous decrease in sea ice and maximum surface-water productivity during mid-Holocene times.

Host, family and community proxies for infections potentially associated with leukaemia.

PubMed

Law, Graham Richard

2008-01-01

Three hypotheses have proposed the involvement of infections in the aetiology of childhood leukaemia, suggesting either a specific leukaemogenic infection or a series of common infections that lead to a dysregulation of the immune system. Much of the evidence for the link with infections has been based on epidemiological observations, often using proxy measures of infection. Proxy measures include population mixing, parental occupation, age distribution of incidence, spatial and space-time clustering of cases, birth order and day care during infancy. This paper discusses the proxies used and examines to what extent a commonly used proxy measure, birth order, is a fair representation of either specific infections or general infectious load. It is clear that although leukaemia, and other diseases, may be linked with infections, one needs to (1) measure specific and general infections with more accuracy and (2) understand how proxy measures relate to real infections in the population.

Load Balancing in Distributed Web Caching: A Novel Clustering Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, R.; Kumar, K.; Khan, G.

2010-11-01

The World Wide Web suffers from scaling and reliability problems due to overloaded and congested proxy servers. Caching at local proxy servers helps, but cannot satisfy more than a third to half of requests; more requests are still sent to original remote origin servers. In this paper we have developed an algorithm for Distributed Web Cache, which incorporates cooperation among proxy servers of one cluster. This algorithm uses Distributed Web Cache concepts along with static hierarchies with geographical based clusters of level one proxy server with dynamic mechanism of proxy server during the congestion of one cluster. Congestion and scalability problems are being dealt by clustering concept used in our approach. This results in higher hit ratio of caches, with lesser latency delay for requested pages. This algorithm also guarantees data consistency between the original server objects and the proxy cache objects.

Paleoaltimetry proxies based on bacterial branched tetraether membrane lipids in soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Huan; Xiao, Wenjie; Jia, Chengling; Xie, Shucheng

2015-03-01

The MBT/CBT (Methylation Index of Branched Tetraethers/Cyclisation ratio of Branched Tetraether) proxy, a terrestrial paleothermometer based on bacterial branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (bGDGTs), was employed to indicate altimetry; however, the mechanistic control on this proxy is still ambiguous. Here, we investigated the bGDGTs' distribution and associated environmental factors along an altitude transect of Mt. Shennongjia in China in order to determine the applicability of bGDGT-based proxies to altimetry reconstruction. The MBT index exhibits only a weak correlation with estimated mean annual air temperature (MATe, estimated according to the meteorological record and lapse rate) or altitude. Likewise, MBT shows weak or no relationship with temperature or altitude at four other mountains (Mts. Meghalaya, Jianfengling, Gongga, and Rungwe). It is notable that mean annual air temperature (MAT) or altitude estimated by the MBT/CBT proxy largely relies on CBT, rather than on MBT, which was generally acknowledged. The poor relationship between MBTand MATe for Mt. Shennongjia can be ascribed to the insensitive response of bGDGT-I to temperature. Our data from this mountain imply that care should be taken if the MBT/CBT proxy is employed as an indication of paleoaltimetry. We propose that the fractional abundance of bGDGTs may be a better paleoaltimeter than the MBT/CBT proxy, because specific bGDGT subsets that might show the most sensitive response to temperature can be preferentially selected using a statistical method and used to establish local calibration. This local calibration was applied to Mt. Shennongjia and apparently improves the accuracy of temperature and altimetry reconstruction. The differential response of bGDGTs to temperature among mountains suggests that local calibrations are needed to better constrain the altimetry.

Gulf Stream Temperature, Salinity and Transport During the Last Millennium

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-02-01

their relationship to 9 one another and to proxies of solar variability. Chapter 3 addresses the temperature and salinity components of the...Florida Current 618Oc varied coherently with proxies of atmospheric radiocarbon at low frequencies over 10 the last 5,000 years, suggesting a link...cooling that began around 1000 A.D. models and proxies used. This two-stage character of the LIA is not apparent in the Florida margin cores. 6.4

Psychometric evaluation and wording effects on the Chinese version of the parent-proxy Kid-KINDL.

PubMed

Lee, Chih-Ting; Lin, Chung-Ying; Tsai, Meng-Che; Strong, Carol; Lin, Yi-Ching

2016-09-05

The pediatric quality of life (QoL) questionnaire, the child-rated Kid-KINDL, has wording effects. However, no studies have examined for its parallel questionnaire, the parent-proxy Kid-KINDL. This study aimed to examine the psychometric properties and wording effects of the parent-proxy Kid-KINDL. Parents with 8- to 12-year-old children (n = 247) completed the parent-proxy Kid-KINDL, 83 of them completed it again 7-14 days later, and 241 of their children completed the child-rated Kid-KINDL. Internal consistency was examined using Cronbach's α; test-retest reliability and concurrent validity, using Pearson correlation coefficients (r); construct validity and wording effects, using confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs). The internal consistency of the parent-proxy Kid-KINDL total score was acceptable (α = .86). Test-retest reliability (r = .33-.60) and concurrent validity (r = .27-.42) were acceptable or nearly acceptable for all subscales and the total score. The CFA models simultaneously accounting for QoL traits and wording effects had satisfactory fit indices, and outperformed the model accounting only for QoL traits. However, four subscales had unsatisfactory internal consistency, which might be attributable to wording effects. When children are unable to complete a QoL questionnaire, the parent-proxy Kid-KINDL can substitute with all due cautions to wording effects and inconsistent reliability among different raters.

Quantitative use of Palaeo-Proxy Data in Global Circulation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, M.

2003-04-01

It is arguably one of the ultimate aims of palaeo-modelling science to somehow "get the palaeo-proxy data into the model" i.e. to constrain the climate of the model the trajectory of the real climate recorded in the palaeo data. The traditional way of interfacing data with models is to use data assimilation. This presents a number of problems in the palaeo context as the data are more often representative of seasonal to annual or decadal climate and models have time steps of order minutes, hence the model increments are likely to be vanishingly small. Also, variational data assimilation schemes would require the adjoint of the coupled ocean-atmosphere model and the adjoint of the functions which translate model variables such as temperature and precipitation into the palaeo-proxies, both of which are hard to determine because of the high degree of non-linearity in the system and the wide range of space and time scales. An alternative is to add forward models of proxies to the model and run "many years" of simulation until an analog state is found which matches the palaeo data for each season, year, decade etc. Clearly "many years" might range from a few thousand years to almost infinity and depends on the number of degrees of freedom in the climate system and on the error characteristics of the palaeo data. The length of simulation required is probably beyond the supercomputer capacity of a single institution and hence an alternative is to use idle capacity of home and business personal computers - the climateprediction.net project.

Examining the relationship between the prevalence of guns and homicide rates in the USA using a new and improved state-level gun ownership proxy.

PubMed

Siegel, Michael; Ross, Craig S; King, Charles

2014-12-01

Determining the relationship between gun ownership levels and firearm homicide rates is critical to inform public health policy. Previous research has shown that state-level gun ownership, as measured by a widely used proxy, is positively associated with firearm homicide rates. A newly developed proxy measure that incorporates the hunting license rate in addition to the proportion of firearm suicides correlates more highly with state-level gun ownership. To corroborate previous research, we used this new proxy to estimate the association of state-level gun ownership with total, firearm, and non-firearm homicides. Using state-specific data for the years 1981-2010, we modelled these rates as a function of gun ownership level, controlling for potential confounding factors. We used a negative binomial regression model and accounted for clustering of observations among states. We found that state-level gun ownership as measured by the new proxy, is significantly associated with firearm and total homicides but not with non-firearm homicides. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Hostility Ratings by Parents at Risk for Child Abuse: Impact of Chronic and Temporary Schema Activation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farc, Maria-Magdalena; Crouch, Julie L.; Skowronski, John J.; Milner, Joel S.

2008-01-01

Objective: Two studies examined whether accessibility of hostility-related schema influenced ratings of ambiguous child pictures. Based on the social information processing model of child physical abuse (CPA), it was expected that CPA risk status would serve as a proxy for chronic accessibility of hostile schema, while priming procedures were used…

Water isotope systematics: Improving our palaeoclimate interpretations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, M. D.; Dee, S.; Anderson, L.; Baker, A.; Bowen, G.; Noone, D.

2016-01-01

The stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, measured in a variety of archives, are widely used proxies in Quaternary Science. Understanding the processes that control δ18O change have long been a focus of research (e.g. Shackleton and Opdyke, 1973; Talbot, 1990 ; Leng, 2006). Both the dynamics of water isotope cycling and the appropriate interpretation of geological water-isotope proxy time series remain subjects of active research and debate. It is clear that achieving a complete understanding of the isotope systematics for any given archive type, and ideally each individual archive, is vital if these palaeo-data are to be used to their full potential, including comparison with climate model experiments of the past. Combining information from modern monitoring and process studies, climate models, and proxy data is crucial for improving our statistical constraints on reconstructions of past climate variability.As climate models increasingly incorporate stable water isotope physics, this common language should aid quantitative comparisons between proxy data and climate model output. Water-isotope palaeoclimate data provide crucial metrics for validating GCMs, whereas GCMs provide a tool for exploring the climate variability dominating signals in the proxy data. Several of the studies in this set of papers highlight how collaborations between palaeoclimate experimentalists and modelers may serve to expand the usefulness of palaeoclimate data for climate prediction in future work.This collection of papers follows the session on Water Isotope Systematics held at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco. Papers in that session, the breadth of which are represented here, discussed such issues as; understanding sub-GNIP scale (Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation, (IAEA/WMO, 2006)) variability in isotopes in precipitation from different regions, detailed examination of the transfer of isotope signals from precipitation to geological archives, and the implications of advances in understanding in these areas for the interpretation of palaeo records and proxy data – climate model comparison.Here, we briefly review these areas of research, and discuss challenges for the water isotope community in improving our ability to partition climate vs. auxiliary signals in palaeoclimate data.

Comparing and improving reconstruction methods for proxies based on compositional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolan, C.; Tipton, J.; Booth, R.; Jackson, S. T.; Hooten, M.

2017-12-01

Many types of studies in paleoclimatology and paleoecology involve compositional data. Often, these studies aim to use compositional data to reconstruct an environmental variable of interest; the reconstruction is usually done via the development of a transfer function. Transfer functions have been developed using many different methods. Existing methods tend to relate the compositional data and the reconstruction target in very simple ways. Additionally, the results from different methods are rarely compared. Here we seek to address these two issues. First, we introduce a new hierarchical Bayesian multivariate gaussian process model; this model allows for the relationship between each species in the compositional dataset and the environmental variable to be modeled in a way that captures the underlying complexities. Then, we compare this new method to machine learning techniques and commonly used existing methods. The comparisons are based on reconstructing the water table depth history of Caribou Bog (an ombrotrophic Sphagnum peat bog in Old Town, Maine, USA) from a new 7500 year long record of testate amoebae assemblages. The resulting reconstructions from different methods diverge in both their resulting means and uncertainties. In particular, uncertainty tends to be drastically underestimated by some common methods. These results will help to improve inference of water table depth from testate amoebae. Furthermore, this approach can be applied to test and improve inferences of past environmental conditions from a broad array of paleo-proxies based on compositional data

Large-scale expensive black-box function optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashid, Kashif; Bailey, William; Couët, Benoît

2012-09-01

This paper presents the application of an adaptive radial basis function method to a computationally expensive black-box reservoir simulation model of many variables. An iterative proxy-based scheme is used to tune the control variables, distributed for finer control over a varying number of intervals covering the total simulation period, to maximize asset NPV. The method shows that large-scale simulation-based function optimization of several hundred variables is practical and effective.

Data-Driven Haptic Modeling and Rendering of Viscoelastic and Frictional Responses of Deformable Objects.

PubMed

Yim, Sunghoon; Jeon, Seokhee; Choi, Seungmoon

2016-01-01

In this paper, we present an extended data-driven haptic rendering method capable of reproducing force responses during pushing and sliding interaction on a large surface area. The main part of the approach is a novel input variable set for the training of an interpolation model, which incorporates the position of a proxy - an imaginary contact point on the undeformed surface. This allows us to estimate friction in both sliding and sticking states in a unified framework. Estimating the proxy position is done in real-time based on simulation using a sliding yield surface - a surface defining a border between the sliding and sticking regions in the external force space. During modeling, the sliding yield surface is first identified via an automated palpation procedure. Then, through manual palpation on a target surface, input data and resultant force data are acquired. The data are used to build a radial basis interpolation model. During rendering, this input-output mapping interpolation model is used to estimate force responses in real-time in accordance with the interaction input. Physical performance evaluation demonstrates that our approach achieves reasonably high estimation accuracy. A user study also shows plausible perceptual realism under diverse and extensive exploration.

Reconstruction of spatio-temporal temperature from sparse historical records using robust probabilistic principal component regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tipton, John; Hooten, Mevin B.; Goring, Simon

2017-01-01

Scientific records of temperature and precipitation have been kept for several hundred years, but for many areas, only a shorter record exists. To understand climate change, there is a need for rigorous statistical reconstructions of the paleoclimate using proxy data. Paleoclimate proxy data are often sparse, noisy, indirect measurements of the climate process of interest, making each proxy uniquely challenging to model statistically. We reconstruct spatially explicit temperature surfaces from sparse and noisy measurements recorded at historical United States military forts and other observer stations from 1820 to 1894. One common method for reconstructing the paleoclimate from proxy data is principal component regression (PCR). With PCR, one learns a statistical relationship between the paleoclimate proxy data and a set of climate observations that are used as patterns for potential reconstruction scenarios. We explore PCR in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, extending classical PCR in a variety of ways. First, we model the latent principal components probabilistically, accounting for measurement error in the observational data. Next, we extend our method to better accommodate outliers that occur in the proxy data. Finally, we explore alternatives to the truncation of lower-order principal components using different regularization techniques. One fundamental challenge in paleoclimate reconstruction efforts is the lack of out-of-sample data for predictive validation. Cross-validation is of potential value, but is computationally expensive and potentially sensitive to outliers in sparse data scenarios. To overcome the limitations that a lack of out-of-sample records presents, we test our methods using a simulation study, applying proper scoring rules including a computationally efficient approximation to leave-one-out cross-validation using the log score to validate model performance. The result of our analysis is a spatially explicit reconstruction of spatio-temporal temperature from a very sparse historical record.

Growth of farmed blue mussels ( Mytilus edulis L.) in a Norwegian coastal area; comparison of food proxies by DEB modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handå, Aleksander; Alver, Morten; Edvardsen, Christian Vik; Halstensen, Stein; Olsen, Anders Johny; Øie, Gunvor; Reitan, Kjell Inge; Olsen, Yngvar; Reinertsen, Helge

2011-11-01

Seston variables and growth of the blue mussel ( Mytilus edulis L.) were measured during the growth season from March to October in three suspended longline farms in Central Norway; one in the inner part of Åfjorden (63° 56' N, 10° 11' E) and two in Inner and Outer Koet, respectively (63° 49' N, 9° 42' and 47' E). Four seston variables were used as alternative input values in a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model to compare their suitability as food proxies for predicting mussel growth: 1; total particulate matter (TPM), 2; particulate organic matter (POM), 3; organic content (OC) and 4; chlorophyll a (chl a). Mean TPM and POM measured 6.1 and 1.9 mg L - 1 in Åfjorden, 10.3 and 4.2 mg L - 1 in Inner Koet, and 10.5 and 4.6 mg L - 1 in Outer Koet, respectively, resulting in a mean OC of 32, 41 and 44% in Åfjorden and Inner and Outer Koet, respectively. Mean chl a measured 1.6 μg L - 1 in Åfjorden, 3.1 μg L - 1 in Inner Koet, and 1.6 μg L - 1 in Outer Koet. Average length growth was 0.20% day - 1 in medium sized mussels (24-36 mm) in Åfjorden and 0.08% day - 1 in large mussels (40-55 mm) in Inner and Outer Koet. Mean standardized soft tissue dry weight ranged between 250 and 390 mg in Åfjorden, 600 and 1175 in Inner Koet, and 600 and 960 mg in Outer Koet, and showed a seasonal pattern independent of growth in length with scattered spawnings. The model showed the best match for a single criterion for growth in both length and soft tissue dry weight for different food proxies depending on location. TPM gave the best match in Åfjorden, while chl a and POM gave the best match in Inner and Outer Koet, respectively. For Åfjorden, growth in length decreased markedly at the end of the sampling period, and this decrease was not reproduced by the model for any of the food proxies. For Inner and Outer Koet, agreement between measured and modeled length was quite good for the optimal choices of food proxy, with clear variations between the proxies for both farms. The model fit the observed soft tissue dry weight well in Åfjorden and Outer Koet, while underestimating it in Inner Koet. The differences in fit between proxies were minor for Åfjorden and Outer Koet, while OC gave the best fit and chl a the poorest fit for Inner Koet. The results indicate that different food sources have different impact on growth at different locations. DEB modeling is a useful tool in comparing which proxies give the most relevant information.

Preference-based measures to obtain health state utility values for use in economic evaluations with child-based populations: a review and UK-based focus group assessment of patient and parent choices.

PubMed

Wolstenholme, Jane L; Bargo, Danielle; Wang, Kay; Harnden, Anthony; Räisänen, Ulla; Abel, Lucy

2018-03-21

No current guidance is available in the UK on the choice of preference-based measure (PBM) that should be used in obtaining health-related quality of life from children. The aim of this study is to review the current usage of PBMs for obtaining health state utility values in child and adolescent populations, and to obtain information on patient and parent-proxy respondent preferences in completing PBMs in the UK. A literature review was conducted to determine which instrument is most frequently used for child-based economic evaluations and whether child or proxy responses are used. Instruments were compared on dimensions, severity levels, elicitation and valuation methods, availability of value sets and validation studies, and the range of utility values generated. Additionally, a series of focus groups of parents and young people (11-20 years) were convened to determine patient and proxy preferences. Five PBMs suitable for child populations were identified, although only the Health Utilities Index 2 (HUI2) and Child Heath Utility 9D (CHU-9D) have UK value sets. 45 papers used PBMs in this population, but many used non-child-specific PBMs. Most respondents were parent proxies, even in adolescent populations. Reported missing data ranged from 0.5 to 49.3%. The focus groups reported their experiences with the EQ-5D-Y and CHU-9D. Both the young persons' group and parent/proxy groups felt that the CHU-9D was more comprehensive but may be harder for a proxy to complete. Some younger children had difficulty understanding the CHU-9D questions, but the young persons' group nonetheless preferred responding directly. The use of PBMs in child populations is increasing, but many studies use PBMs that do not have appropriate value sets. Parent proxies are the most common respondents, but the focus group responses suggest it would be preferred, and may be more informative, for older children to self-report or for child-parent dyads to respond.

Solar EUV irradiance for space weather applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.

2015-12-01

Solar EUV irradiance is an important driver of space weather models. Large changes in EUV and x-ray irradiances create large variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere. Proxies such as the F10.7 cm radio flux, have provided reasonable estimates of the EUV flux but as the space weather models become more accurate and the demands of the customers become more stringent, proxies are no longer adequate. Furthermore, proxies are often provided only on a daily basis and shorter time scales are becoming important. Also, there is a growing need for multi-day forecasts of solar EUV irradiance to drive space weather forecast models. In this presentation we will describe the needs and requirements for solar EUV irradiance information from the space weather modeler's perspective. We will then translate these requirements into solar observational requirements such as spectral resolution and irradiance accuracy. We will also describe the activities at NOAA to provide long-term solar EUV irradiance observations and derived products that are needed for real-time space weather modeling.

One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kehrwald, Natalie; Aleman, Julie C.; Coughlan, Michael; Courtney Mustaphi, Colin J.; Githumbi, Esther N.; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Power, Mitchell J.

2016-01-01

The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1) and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

Representation of layer-counted proxy records as probability densities on error-free time axes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Niklas; Goswami, Bedartha; Ghil, Michael

2016-04-01

Time series derived from paleoclimatic proxy records exhibit substantial dating uncertainties in addition to the measurement errors of the proxy values. For radiometrically dated proxy archives, Goswami et al. [1] have recently introduced a framework rooted in Bayesian statistics that successfully propagates the dating uncertainties from the time axis to the proxy axis. The resulting proxy record consists of a sequence of probability densities over the proxy values, conditioned on prescribed age values. One of the major benefits of this approach is that the proxy record is represented on an accurate, error-free time axis. Such unambiguous dating is crucial, for instance, in comparing different proxy records. This approach, however, is not directly applicable to proxy records with layer-counted chronologies, as for example ice cores, which are typically dated by counting quasi-annually deposited ice layers. Hence the nature of the chronological uncertainty in such records is fundamentally different from that in radiometrically dated ones. Here, we introduce a modification of the Goswami et al. [1] approach that is specifically designed for layer-counted proxy records, instead of radiometrically dated ones. We apply our method to isotope ratios and dust concentrations in the NGRIP core, using a published 60,000-year chronology [2]. It is shown that the further one goes into the past, the more the layer-counting errors accumulate and lead to growing uncertainties in the probability density sequence for the proxy values that results from the proposed approach. For the older parts of the record, these uncertainties affect more and more a statistically sound estimation of proxy values. This difficulty implies that great care has to be exercised when comparing and in particular aligning specific events among different layer-counted proxy records. On the other hand, when attempting to derive stochastic dynamical models from the proxy records, one is only interested in the relative changes, i.e. in the increments of the proxy values. In such cases, only the relative (non-cumulative) counting errors matter. For the example of the NGRIP records, we show that a precise estimation of these relative changes is in fact possible. References: [1] Goswami et al., Nonlin. Processes Geophys. (2014) [2] Svensson et al., Clim. Past (2008)

Comparison of mid-Pliocene climate predictions produced by the HadAM3 and GCMAM3 General Circulation Models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Chandler, M.A.; Valdes, P.J.; Salzmann, U.; Lunt, D.J.; Dowsett, H.J.

2009-01-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (ca. 3 to 3.3??million years ago) has become an important interval of time for palaeoclimate modelling exercises, with a large number of studies published during the last decade. However, there has been no attempt to assess the degree of model dependency of the results obtained. Here we present an initial comparison of mid-Pliocene climatologies produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research atmosphere-only General Circulation Models (GCMAM3 and HadAM3). Whilst both models are consistent in the simulation of broad-scale differences in mid-Pliocene surface air temperature and total precipitation rates, significant variation is noted on regional and local scales. There are also significant differences in the model predictions of total cloud cover. A terrestrial data/model comparison, facilitated by the BIOME 4 model and a new data set of Piacenzian Stage land cover [Salzmann, U., Haywood, A.M., Lunt, D.J., Valdes, P.J., Hill, D.J., (2008). A new global biome reconstruction and data model comparison for the Middle Pliocene. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17, 432-447, doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00381.x] and combined with the use of Kappa statistics, indicates that HadAM3-based biome predictions provide a closer fit to proxy data in the mid to high-latitudes. However, GCMAM3-based biomes in the tropics provide the closest fit to proxy data. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Model-based analyses: Promises, pitfalls, and example applications to the study of cognitive control

PubMed Central

Mars, Rogier B.; Shea, Nicholas J.; Kolling, Nils; Rushworth, Matthew F. S.

2011-01-01

We discuss a recent approach to investigating cognitive control, which has the potential to deal with some of the challenges inherent in this endeavour. In a model-based approach, the researcher defines a formal, computational model that performs the task at hand and whose performance matches that of a research participant. The internal variables in such a model might then be taken as proxies for latent variables computed in the brain. We discuss the potential advantages of such an approach for the study of the neural underpinnings of cognitive control and its pitfalls, and we make explicit the assumptions underlying the interpretation of data obtained using this approach. PMID:20437297

Human rights of children with intellectual disabilities: comparing self-ratings and proxy ratings.

PubMed

Huus, K; Granlund, M; Bornman, J; Lygnegård, F

2015-11-01

A child rights-based approach to research articulates well with Article 12 of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) and highlights the importance and value of including children's own views about aspects that concern them. The aim of this study is to compare children with intellectual disability's own ratings (as self-raters) to those of their primary caregivers (as proxy raters) regarding human rights of children. The study also aims to establish whether there is an inter-rater agreement between the self-raters and proxy raters concerning Maslow's hierarchy of needs. This study is nested in a larger study examining the human rights of children with intellectual disability in South Africa. In total, 162 children with intellectual disability from 11 schools across three provinces and their primary caregivers participated by answering parts of a Children's Rights Questionnaire (CRQ) developed by the researchers based on the United Nation's CRC. We compared the answers for six questions in the questionnaire that were addressed to self-raters (children) and proxy raters (primary caregivers) in the same way. Questions regarding basic needs, such as access to clean water or whether the child had food to eat at home, were answered similarly by self-raters and proxy raters. Larger differences were found when self-raters and proxy raters were asked about whether the child had things or friends to play with at home. Socio-economic variables seemed to affect whether self-raters and proxy raters answered similarly. The results underscore the importance of promoting children's rights to express themselves by considering the opinions of both the children as self-raters and their primary caregivers as proxy raters - not only the latter. The results indicate that it is especially important to include children's own voices when more complex needs are surveyed. Agreement between self- and proxy ratings could be affected by socio-economic circumstances. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Characteristics of Hospital-Based Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy in Japan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fujiwara, Takeo; Okuyama, Makiko; Kasahara, Mari; Nakamura, Ayako

2008-01-01

Objective: This article explores characteristics of Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy (MSBP) in Japan, a country which provides an egalitarian, low cost, and easy-access health care system. Methods: We sent a questionnaire survey to 11 leading doctors in the child abuse field in Japan, each located in different hospital-based sites. Child abuse doctors…

UV-visible absorbance spectroscopy as a proxy for peatland dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality: considerations on wavelength and absorbance degradation.

PubMed

Peacock, Mike; Evans, Chris D; Fenner, Nathalie; Freeman, Chris; Gough, Rachel; Jones, Timothy G; Lebron, Inma

2014-05-01

Absorbance in the UV or visible spectrum (UV-vis) is commonly used as a proxy for DOC concentrations in waters draining upland catchments. To determine the appropriateness of different UV-vis measurements we used surface and pore water samples from two Welsh peatlands in four different experiments: (i) an assessment of single wavelength proxies (1 nm increments between 230-800 nm) for DOC concentration demonstrated that 254 nm was more accurate than 400 nm. The highest R(2) values between absorbance and DOC concentration were generated using 263 nm for one sample set (R(2) = 0.91), and 230 nm for the other three sample sets (respective R(2) values of 0.86, 0.81, and 0.93). (ii) A comparison of different DOC concentration proxies, including single wavelength proxies, a two wavelength model, a proxy using phenolic concentration, and a proxy using the area under a UV spectrum at 250-350 nm. It was found that both a single wavelength proxy (≤263 nm) and a two wavelength model performed well for both pore water and surface water. (iii) An evaluation of the E2 : E3, E2 : E4, E4 : E6 ratios, and SUVA (absorbance at 254 nm normalised to DOC concentration) as indicators of DOC quality showed that the E4 : E6 ratio was subject to extensive variation over time, and was highly correlated between surface water and pore water, suggesting that it is a useful metric to determine temporal changes in DOC quality. (iv) A repeated weekly analysis over twelve weeks showed no consistent change in UV-vis absorbance, and therefore an inferred lack of degradation of total DOC in samples that were filtered and stored in the dark at 4 °C.

The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, G.; Krivova, N.; Lean, J.; Wu, C. J.

2015-12-01

We describe the expected effects of the new sunspot number time series on proxy model based reconstructions of the total solar irradiance (TSI), which is largely explained by the opposing effects of dark sunspots and bright faculae. Regressions of indices for facular brightening and sunspot darkening with time series of direct TSI observations during the recent 37-year spacecraft TSI measurement era determine the relative contributions from each. Historical TSI reconstructions are enabled by extending these proxy models back in time prior to the start of the measurement record using a variety of solar activity indices including the sunspot number time series alone prior to 1882. Such reconstructions are critical for Earth climate research, which requires knowledge of the incident energy from the Sun to assess climate sensitivity to the natural influence of solar variability. Two prominent TSI reconstructions that utilize the sunspot record starting in 1610 are the NRLTSI and the SATIRE models. We review the indices that each currently uses and estimate the effects the revised sunspot record has on these reconstructions.

Mechanistic controls on diverse fates of terrestrial organic components in the East China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Chun; Wagner, Thomas; Talbot, Helen M.; Weijers, Johan W. H.; Pan, Jian-Ming; Pancost, Richard D.

2013-09-01

Terrestrial carbon transferred from the land to sea is a critical component of the global carbon cycle. A range of geochemical proxies has been developed to fingerprint the fate of terrestrial organic matter (TOM) in marine sediments. However, discrepancies among different proxies limit our ability to quantify and interpret the terrestrial signals in marine sediments, with consequences for the investigation of both the modern carbon cycle and past environmental change. To mechanistically understand these discrepancies, we examined the distributions of a range of terrestrial proxies and their aquatic counterparts (i.e. marine proxies) in the Yangtze river-East China Sea (YR-ECS) shelf system, where TOM experiences extensive modification during transport and burial. TOM proxies in the YR-ECS system collectively fit a power-law model but with distinct attenuation rates (the a∗ values) for individual molecular proxy groups. Among a range of TOM proxies, the modeled a∗ values decrease in the order: soil-marker BHPs > triterpenols > lignin > HMW n-alkanols > branched GDGTs > HMW n-alkanes for biomarkers; and Rsoil > BIT > %TOMiso for proxies tracing %TOM. Rapid loss of TOM components through dissociation in the narrow estuary, followed by oxidation over the wide open shelf, are best described by power curves. Inherent chemical reactivity (i.e. the number of functional groups), responses to hydraulic sorting, and in situ production regulate the individual attenuation rates. Of them, chemical reactivity plays the most important role on proxy behavior, supported by a strong correlation between a∗ values and standard molal Gibbs energies. Both, physical protection and chemical reactivity fundamentally control the overall behavior of TOM components, with the relative importance being setting-dependant: The former is relatively important in the estuary, whereas the later is the primary control over the open shelf. Moreover, regional variation of different marine-counterparts is also significant over the river-ECS shelf system, seemingly regulated by regional nutrient distributions. Therefore, for %TOM estimates using molecular ratio approaches, the specific behavior of individual terrestrial components and marine-counterparts and the physical, biological and chemical characteristics of depositional settings all need to be considered.

Polar synchronization and the synchronized climatic history of Greenland and Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Jeseung; Reischmann, Elizabeth; Rial, José A.

2014-01-01

Stable isotope proxies from ice cores show subtle differences in the climatic fluctuations of the Arctic and Antarctic, and recent analyses have revealed evidence of polar synchronization at the millennial time scale. At this scale, we analogize the polar climates of the last ice ages to two coupled nonlinear oscillators, which adjust their natural rhythms until they synchronize at a common frequency and constant phase shift. Heat and mass transfers across the intervening ocean and atmosphere make the coupling possible. Here we statistically demonstrate the existence of this phenomenon in polar proxy records with methane-matched age models, and quantify their phase relationship. We show that the time series of representative proxy records of the last glaciation recorded in Greenland (GRIP, NGRIP) and Antarctica (Byrd, Dome C) satisfy phase synchronization conditions, independently of age, for periods ranging 1-6 ky, and can be transformed into one another by a π/2 phase shift, with Antarctica temperature variations leading Greenland's. Based on these results, we use the polar synchronization paradigm to replicate the 800 ky-long, Antarctic, EPICA time series from a theoretical model that extends Greenland's 100 ky-long GRIP record to 800 ky. Statistical analysis of the simulated and actual Antarctic records shows that the procedure is stable to change in adjustable parameters, and requires the coupling between the polar climates to be proportional mainly to the difference in heat storage between the two regions.

Measuring adolescents' HRQoL via self reports and parent proxy reports: an evaluation of the psychometric properties of both versions of the KINDL-R instrument.

PubMed

Erhart, Michael; Ellert, Ute; Kurth, Bärbel-Maria; Ravens-Sieberer, Ulrike

2009-08-26

Several instruments are available to assess children's health-related quality of life (HRQoL) based on self reports as well as proxy reports from parents. Previous studies have found only low-to-moderate agreement between self and proxy reports, but few studies have explicitly compared the psychometric qualities of both. This study compares the reliability, factorial validity and convergent and known group validity of the self-report and parent-report versions of the HRQoL KINDL-R questionnaire for children and adolescents. Within the nationally representative cross-sectional German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS), 6,813 children and adolescents aged 11 to 17 years completed the KINDL-R generic HRQoL instrument while their parents answered the KINDL proxy version (both in paper-and-pencil versions). Cronbach's alpha and confirmatory factor-analysis models (linear structural equation model) were obtained. Convergent and discriminant validity were assessed by calculating the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Known-groups differences were examined (ANOVA) for obese children and children with a lower familial socio-economic status. The parent reports achieved slightly higher Cronbach's alpha values for the total score (0.86 vs. 0.83) and most sub-scores. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed an acceptable fit of the six-dimensional measurement model of the KINDL for the parent (RMSEA=0.07) and child reports (RMSEA=0.06). Factorial invariance across the two versions did not hold with regards to the pattern of loadings, the item errors and the covariation between latent concepts. However the magnitude of the differences was rather small. The parent report version achieved slightly higher convergent validity (r=0.44-0.63 vs. r=0.33-0.59) in the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. No clear differences were observed for known-groups validity. Our study showed that parent proxy reports and child self reports on the child's HRQoL slightly differ with regards to how the perceptions, evaluations and possibly the affective resonance of each group are structured and internally consistent. Overall, the parent reports achieved slightly higher reliability and thus are favoured for the examination of small samples. No version was universally superior with regards to the validity of the measurements. Whenever possible, children's HRQoL should be measured via both sources of information.

A wind proxy based on migrating dunes at the Baltic coast: statistical analysis of the link between wind conditions and sand movement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierstedt, Svenja E.; Hünicke, Birgit; Zorita, Eduardo; Ludwig, Juliane

2017-07-01

We statistically analyse the relationship between the structure of migrating dunes in the southern Baltic and the driving wind conditions over the past 26 years, with the long-term aim of using migrating dunes as a proxy for past wind conditions at an interannual resolution. The present analysis is based on the dune record derived from geo-radar measurements by Ludwig et al. (2017). The dune system is located at the Baltic Sea coast of Poland and is migrating from west to east along the coast. The dunes present layers with different thicknesses that can be assigned to absolute dates at interannual timescales and put in relation to seasonal wind conditions. To statistically analyse this record and calibrate it as a wind proxy, we used a gridded regional meteorological reanalysis data set (coastDat2) covering recent decades. The identified link between the dune annual layers and wind conditions was additionally supported by the co-variability between dune layers and observed sea level variations in the southern Baltic Sea. We include precipitation and temperature into our analysis, in addition to wind, to learn more about the dependency between these three atmospheric factors and their common influence on the dune system. We set up a statistical linear model based on the correlation between the frequency of days with specific wind conditions in a given season and dune migration velocities derived for that season. To some extent, the dune records can be seen as analogous to tree-ring width records, and hence we use a proxy validation method usually applied in dendrochronology, cross-validation with the leave-one-out method, when the observational record is short. The revealed correlations between the wind record from the reanalysis and the wind record derived from the dune structure is in the range between 0.28 and 0.63, yielding similar statistical validation skill as dendroclimatological records.

Late quaternary climate, precipitation δ18O, and Indian monsoon variations over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingmin; Ehlers, Todd A.; Werner, Martin; Mutz, Sebastian G.; Steger, Christian; Paeth, Heiko

2017-01-01

The Himalaya-Tibet orogen contains one of the largest modern topographic and climate gradients on Earth. Proxy data from the region provide a basis for understanding Tibetan Plateau paleo climate and paleo elevation reconstructions. Paleo climate model comparisons to proxy data compliment sparsely located data and can improve climate reconstructions. This study investigates temporal changes in precipitation, temperature and precipitation δ18O (δO18p) over the Himalaya-Tibet from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present. We conduct a series of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM, ECHAM5-wiso) experiments at discrete time slices including a Pre-industrial (PI, Pre-1850 AD), Mid Holocene (MH, 6 ka BP) and LGM (21 ka BP) simulations. Model predictions are compared with existing proxy records. Model results show muted climate changes across the plateau during the MH and larger changes occurring during the LGM. During the LGM surface temperatures are ∼ 2.0- 4.0 °C lower across the Himalaya and Tibet, and >5.0 °C lower at the northwest and northeast edge of the Tibetan Plateau. LGM mean annual precipitation is 200-600 mm/yr lower over on the Tibetan Plateau. Model and proxy data comparison shows a good agreement for the LGM, but large differences for the MH. Large differences are also present between MH proxy studies near each other. The precipitation weighted annual mean δ18Op lapse rate at the Himalaya is about 0.4 ‰ /km larger during the MH and 0.2 ‰ /km smaller during the LGM than during the PI. Finally, rainfall associated with the continental Indian monsoon (between 70°E-110°E and 10°N-30°N) is about 44% less in the LGM than during PI times. The LGM monsoon period is about one month shorter than in PI times. Taken together, these results document significant spatial and temporal changes in temperature, precipitation, and δ18Op over the last ∼21 ka. These changes are large enough to impact interpretations of proxy data and the intensity of the Indian monsoon.

A new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riesselman, C. R.; Dowsett, H. J.; Scher, H. D.; Robinson, M. M.

2011-12-01

The mid-Pliocene (3.264 - 3.025 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history with sustained global temperatures in the range of warming predicted for the 21st century, providing an appealing analog with which to examine the Earth system changes we might encounter in the coming century. Ongoing sea surface and deep ocean temperature reconstructions and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model simulations by the USGS PRISM (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Group identify a dramatic North Atlantic warm anomaly coupled with increased evaporation in the mid-Pliocene, possibly driving enhanced meridional overturning circulation and North Atlantic Deep Water production. However deep ocean temperature is not a conclusive proxy for water mass, and most coupled model simulations predict transient decreases in North Atlantic Deep Water production in 21st century, presenting a contrasting picture of future warmer worlds. Here, we present early results from a new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene, using δ13C of benthic foraminifera as a proxy for water mass age and the neodymium isotopic imprint on fossil fish teeth as a proxy for water mass source region along a three-site depth transect from the Walvis Ridge (subtropical South Atlantic). The deep ocean circulation reconstructions resulting from this project will add a new dimension to the PRISM effort and will be useful for both initialization and evaluation of future model simulations.

Avoiding and Correcting Bias in Score-Based Latent Variable Regression with Discrete Manifest Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lu, Irene R. R.; Thomas, D. Roland

2008-01-01

This article considers models involving a single structural equation with latent explanatory and/or latent dependent variables where discrete items are used to measure the latent variables. Our primary focus is the use of scores as proxies for the latent variables and carrying out ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on such scores to estimate…

Self-consistent asset pricing models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malevergne, Y.; Sornette, D.

2007-08-01

We discuss the foundations of factor or regression models in the light of the self-consistency condition that the market portfolio (and more generally the risk factors) is (are) constituted of the assets whose returns it is (they are) supposed to explain. As already reported in several articles, self-consistency implies correlations between the return disturbances. As a consequence, the alphas and betas of the factor model are unobservable. Self-consistency leads to renormalized betas with zero effective alphas, which are observable with standard OLS regressions. When the conditions derived from internal consistency are not met, the model is necessarily incomplete, which means that some sources of risk cannot be replicated (or hedged) by a portfolio of stocks traded on the market, even for infinite economies. Analytical derivations and numerical simulations show that, for arbitrary choices of the proxy which are different from the true market portfolio, a modified linear regression holds with a non-zero value αi at the origin between an asset i's return and the proxy's return. Self-consistency also introduces “orthogonality” and “normality” conditions linking the betas, alphas (as well as the residuals) and the weights of the proxy portfolio. Two diagnostics based on these orthogonality and normality conditions are implemented on a basket of 323 assets which have been components of the S&P500 in the period from January 1990 to February 2005. These two diagnostics show interesting departures from dynamical self-consistency starting about 2 years before the end of the Internet bubble. Assuming that the CAPM holds with the self-consistency condition, the OLS method automatically obeys the resulting orthogonality and normality conditions and therefore provides a simple way to self-consistently assess the parameters of the model by using proxy portfolios made only of the assets which are used in the CAPM regressions. Finally, the factor decomposition with the self-consistency condition derives a risk-factor decomposition in the multi-factor case which is identical to the principal component analysis (PCA), thus providing a direct link between model-driven and data-driven constructions of risk factors. This correspondence shows that PCA will therefore suffer from the same limitations as the CAPM and its multi-factor generalization, namely lack of out-of-sample explanatory power and predictability. In the multi-period context, the self-consistency conditions force the betas to be time-dependent with specific constraints.

Validation and application of a death proxy in adult cancer patients.

PubMed

Mealing, Nicole M; Dobbins, Timothy A; Pearson, Sallie-Anne

2012-07-01

PURPOSE: Fact of death is not always available on data sets used for pharmacoepidemiological research. Proxies may be an appropriate substitute in the absence of death data. The purposes of this study were to validate a proxy for death in adult cancer patients and to assess its performance when estimating survival in two cohorts of cancer patients. METHODS: We evaluated 30-, 60-, 90- and 180-day proxies overall and by cancer type using data from 12 394 Australian veterans with lung, colorectal, breast or prostate cancer. The proxy indicated death if the difference between the last dispensing record and the end of the observational period exceeded the proxy cutoff. We then compared actual survival to 90-day proxy estimates in a subset of 4090 veterans with 'full entitlements' for pharmaceutical items and in 3704 Australian women receiving trastuzumab for HER2+ metastatic breast cancer. RESULTS: The 90-day proxy was optimal with an overall sensitivity of 99.3% (95%CI: 98.4-99.7) and a specificity of 97.6% (95%CI: 91.8-99.4). These measures remained high when evaluated by cancer type and spread of disease. The application of the proxy using the most conservative date of death estimate (date of last dispensing) generally underestimated survival, with estimates up to 3 months shorter than survival based on fact of death. CONCLUSIONS: A 90-day death proxy is a robust substitute to identify death in a chronic population when fact of death is not available. The proxy is likely to be valid across a range of chronic diseases as it relies on the presence of 'regular' dispensing records for individual patients. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Operational Testing of Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaur, Srishti; Paul, Pranesh Kumar; Singh, Rajendra; Mishra, Ashok; Gupta, Praveen Kumar; Singh, Raghavendra P.

2017-04-01

Incorporation of the concept of transposability in model testing is one of the prominent ways to check the credibility of a hydrological model. Successful testing ensures ability of hydrological models to deal with changing conditions, along with its extrapolation capacity. For a newly developed model, a number of contradictions arises regarding its applicability, therefore testing of credibility of model is essential to proficiently assess its strength and limitations. This concept emphasizes to perform 'Hierarchical Operational Testing' of Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM), a newly developed surface water-groundwater coupled model, under PRACRITI-2 program initiated by Space Application Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad. SHM aims at sustainable water resources management using remote sensing data from Indian satellites. It consists of grid cells of 5km x 5km resolution and comprises of five modules namely: Surface Water (SW), Forest (F), Snow (S), Groundwater (GW) and Routing (ROU). SW module (functions in the grid cells with land cover other than forest and snow) deals with estimation of surface runoff, soil moisture and evapotranspiration by using NRCS-CN method, water balance and Hragreaves method, respectively. The hydrology of F module is dependent entirely on sub-surface processes and water balance is calculated based on it. GW module generates baseflow (depending on water table variation with the level of water in streams) using Boussinesq equation. ROU module is grounded on a cell-to-cell routing technique based on the principle of Time Variant Spatially Distributed Direct Runoff Hydrograph (SDDH) to route the generated runoff and baseflow by different modules up to the outlet. For this study Subarnarekha river basin, flood prone zone of eastern India, has been chosen for hierarchical operational testing scheme which includes tests under stationary as well as transitory conditions. For this the basin has been divided into three sub-basins using three flow gauging sites as reference, viz., Muri, Jamshedpur and Ghatshila. Individual model set-up has been prepared for these sub-basins and calibration and validation using Split-sample test, first level of operational testing scheme is in progress. Subsequently for geographic transposability, Proxy-basin test will be done using Muri and Jamshedpur as proxy basins. Climatic transposability will be tested for dry and wet years using Differential split-sample test. For incorporating both geographic and climatic transposability Proxy-basin differential split sample test will be used. For quantitative evaluation of SHM, during Split-sample test Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Coefficient of Determination (R R^2)) and Percent BIAS (PBIAS) are being used. However, for transposability, a productive approach involving these performance measures, i.e. NSE*R R^2)*PBIAS will be used to decide the best value of parameters. Keywords: SHM, credibility, operational testing, transposability.

Ice-free summers predominant in the late Miocene central Arctic Ocean - New insights from a proxy-modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, Ruediger; Fahl, Kirsten; Schreck, Michael; Knorr, Gregor; Forwick, Matthias; Lohmann, Gerrit; Niessen, Frank

2016-04-01

During Polarstern Expedition PS87/2014, we discovered multiple submarine landslides over a distance of >350 km along Lomonosov Ridge between about 81°N and 84°N (Stein, 2015). The load and erosional behaviour of an extended ice sheet/shelf that probably occurred during major Quaternary glaciations, may have caused physical conditions that triggered these landslides and major down-slope transport of sediments at this part of Lomonosov Ridge (Stein et al., 2016 and further references therein). The removal of younger sediments from steep headwalls has led to exhumation of Miocene to early Quaternary sediments close to the seafloor, allowing the retrieval of such old sediments by gravity coring and multi-proxy studies of theses sediments. Within one of these studies (Stein et al., 2016), we used for the first time the sea-ice biomarker IP25 (for background of approach see Belt et al., 2007; Müller et al., 2009, 2011) together with alkenone-based sea-surface temperatures (SST) to reconstruct upper Miocene Arctic Ocean sea-ice and SST conditions. The presence of IP25 as proxy for spring sea-ice cover and alkenone-based relatively warm summer SST of >4 °C support a seasonal sea-ice cover with an ice-free summer season being dominant during (most of) the late Miocene central Arctic Ocean. A comparison of our proxy data with Miocene climate simulations seems to favour either relatively high late Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations and/or an overly weak sensitivity of the model to simulate the magnitude of high-latitude warming in a warmer than modern climate. References: Belt, S.T., Massé, G., Rowland, S.J., Poulin, M., Michel, and C., LeBlanc, B., 2007. A novel chemical fossil of palaeo sea ice: IP25, Organic Geochemistry 38, 16-27. Müller, J., Massé, G., Stein, R., and Belt, S., 2009. Extreme variations in sea ice cover for Fram Strait during the past 30 ka. Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO665. Müller, J., Wagner, A., Fahl, K., Stein, R., Prange, M., and Lohmann, G., 2011. Towards quantitative sea ice reconstructions in the northern North Atlantic: A combined biomarker and numerical modelling approach. Earth Planetary Science Letters 306, 137-148. Stein, R. (Ed.), 2015. The Expedition PS87 of the Research Vessel Polarstern to the Arctic Ocean in 2014, Reports on Polar and Marine Research 688, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, 273 pp (http://epic.awi.de/37728/1/BzPM_0688_2015.pdf). Stein, R., K. Fahl, Schreck, M., Knorr, G., Niessen, F., Forwick, M., Gebhardt, C., Jensen, L., Kaminski, M., Kopf, A., Matthiessen, J., Jokat, W., Lohmann, G. and the PS87 Geoscience Party, 2016. Ice-free summers in the late Miocene central Arctic Ocean - New insights from proxy/model reconstruction. Nature Communications, revised version under review.

Centenarians' End-of-Life Thoughts and Plans: Is Their Social Network on the Same Page?

PubMed

Boerner, Kathrin; Kim, Kyungmin; Kim, Yijung; Rott, Christoph; Jopp, Daniela S

2018-05-22

To explore how centenarians think about and plan for the end of life (EOL) and to what extent their primary contacts (proxy informants) are aware of these thoughts. Population-based study with semistructured in-person interviews. Defined geographical region approximately 60 km around Heidelberg, Germany. Subsample drawn from the larger study of centenarians (N = 78) with data on centenarians' EOL thoughts from the centenarian and the proxy informant. Centenarians reported on their thoughts about the EOL, perception of the EOL as threatening, longing for death, engagement in any EOL planning, and type of EOL plan (will, living will, healthcare surrogate) in place. Proxy respondents answered the same set of questions based on what they thought the centenarians' perspective was. In nearly half of cases, proxies misjudged whether the centenarian thought about EOL. Although only few centenarians perceived the EOL as threatening, and approximately one-quarter reported longing for death, proxies overestimated centenarians' reports on the former and underestimated the latter. Proxies reported more centenarian EOL planning than centenarians themselves. Even though enrolled proxies were mostly persons very close to the centenarian, many of them did not seem to be well informed about the centenarians' thoughts and plans regarding the EOL, suggesting a lack of communication between centenarians and social network members in this respect. Healthcare professionals should be aware that, even for very old adults approaching the end of their lives, discussions about EOL and EOL planning may need to be actively encouraged and supported. © 2018, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2018, The American Geriatrics Society.

Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy (MSBP): An Intergenerational Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rappaport, Sol R.; Hochstadt, Neil J.

1993-01-01

Presents new information about Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy (MSBP), factitious disorder in which caretaker may induce or exaggerate medical illness in his or her child that may lead to illness and even death. Provides psychosocial history of caregiver using intergenerational model. Presents case of MSBP involving three siblings and information…

Spring temperature responses of oaks are synchronous with North Atlantic conditions during the last deglaciation

Treesearch

Steven L. Voelker; Paul-Emile Noirot-Cosson; Michael C. Stambaugh; Erin R. McMurry; Frederick C. Meinzer; Barbara Lachenburch; Richard P. Guyette

2012-01-01

Paleoclimate proxies based on the measurement of xylem cell anatomy have rarely been developed across the temperature range of a species or applied to wood predating the most recent millennium. Here we describe wood anatomy-based proxies for spring temperatures in central North America from modern bur oaks (Quercus macrocarpa Michx.). The strong...

Comparison of pediatric self reports and parent proxy reports utilizing PROMIS: Results from a chiropractic practice-based research network.

PubMed

Alcantara, Joel; Ohm, Jeanne; Alcantara, Junjoe

2017-11-01

To measure the cross-informant variant of pediatric quality of life (QoL) based on self-reports and parent proxy measures. A secondary analysis of baseline data obtained from two independent studies measuring the QoL based on the pediatric PROMIS-25 self-report and the PROMIS parent-proxy items banks. A scoring manual associated raw scores to a T score metric (mean = 50; SD = 10). Reliability of QoL ratings utilized the ICC while comparison of mean T Scores utilized the unpaired t-test. A total of 289 parent-child dyads comprised our study responders. Average age for parents and children was 41.27 years and 12.52 years, respectively. The mean T score (child self-report: parent proxy) for each QoL domains were: mobility (50.82:52.58), anxiety (46.73:44.21), depression (45.18:43.60), fatigue (45.59:43.92), peer-relationships (52.15:52.88) and pain interference (47.47:44.80). Parents tend to over-estimate their child's QoL based on measures of anxiety, depression, fatigue, peer-relationships and pain interference. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Investigating genetic loci that encode plant-derived paleoclimate proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bender, A. L. D.; Suess, M.; Chitwood, D. H.; Bradley, A. S.

2016-12-01

Long chain (>C25) n-alkanes in sediments predominantly derive from terrestrial plant waxes. Hydrogen isotope ratios (δD) of leaf wax hydrocarbons correlate with δDH2O of precipitation and are commonly used as paleoclimate proxies. However, biological variability in the isotopic fractionations between water and plant materials also affects the n-alkane δD values. Correct interpretation of this paleoclimate proxy requires that we resolve genetic and environmental effects. Genetic variability underlying differences in leaf wax structure and isotopic composition can be quantitatively determined through the use of model organisms. Interfertile Solanum sect. Lycopersicon (tomato) species provide an ideal model species complex for this approach. We used a set of 76 precisely defined near-isogenic lines (introgression lines [ILs]) in which small genomic regions from the wild tomato relative Solanum pennellii have been introduced into the genome of the domestic tomato, S. lycopersicum. By characterizing quantitative traits of these ILs (leaf wax structure and isotopic composition), we can resolve the degree to which each trait is regulated by genetic versus environmental factors. We present data from two growth experiments conducted with all 76 ILs. In this study, we quantify leaf wax traits, including δD values, δ13C values, and structural metrics including the methylation index (a variable that describes the ratio of iso­- and anteiso- to n-alkanes). Among ILs, δD values vary by up to 35‰ and 60‰ for C31 and C33 n-alkanes, respectively. Many ILs have methylation indices that are discernably different from the parent domesticated tomato (p < 0.001), which suggests that methylation is a highly polygenic trait. This pattern is similar to the genetics that control leaf shape, another trait commonly used as a paleoclimate proxy. Based on our preliminary analysis, we propose candidate genes that control aspects of plant physiology that affect these quantitative traits. Our results have important implications for uncovering the degree to which we can expect environmental versus genetic factors to modulate variability in n-alkane δD values. These findings can inform the interpretation of the proxy signal recovered from the geological record.

Perspectives on geochemical proxies: The impact of model and parameter selection on the quantification of carbonate recrystallization rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, Christian; Druhan, Jennifer L.; Fantle, Matthew S.

2017-11-01

Diagenetic reactions in marine sediments, such as the recrystallization of carbonates, can impact the accuracy of paleo-environmental and paleo-climatic reconstructions by geochemical proxies. The extent to which the recrystallization of carbonates affects the chemistry of sedimentary archives depends on the reaction rate, extent of isotopic disequilibrium, and duration of reaction. The reaction rate, which is obviously critical, can be constrained by the elemental and isotopic compositions of pore fluids. Such constraints are affected by assumptions regarding the temperature in the sedimentary column relative to the temperature of formation, the burial rate, pore fluid advection, the composition of the sediments (carbonate-rich versus siliciclastic), and the porosity of the sediment column. In this study, we use a steady-state analytical solution to the diagenetic equations to constrain depth-dependent reaction rates (and extents of recrystallization) based on the Ca isotopic compositions of pore fluids in sedimentary columns at multiple ocean drilling sites (Sites 807, 984, 1170, and 1171), which encompass a diverse range of sedimentary compositions and conditions. We find that carbonates in siliciclastic sediments are generally less altered by diagenesis than their carbonate-rich counterparts. The discrepancy in recrystallization rates between siliciclastic and carbonate-rich sedimentary sections is, however, significantly smaller than previously estimated, suggesting that siliciclastic archives are not immune to diagenetic effects. While we find that diagenesis can decouple contemporaneous proxies of sea surface temperature (Mg/Ca and δ18O), our calculations also reveal that δ18O-based temperature estimates are more robust in siliciclastic sections relative to carbonate-rich sections. Sensitivity tests of the calculated extent of recrystallization suggest that uncertainties in porosity and burial rate are generally the greatest sources of error to proxy reconstruction from diagenetically altered sediments. The conclusions drawn using the analytical solution are benchmarked against a depth-dependent, forward numerical model using the CrunchFlow software (Steefel et al., 2015); ultimately, this comparison demonstrates that the assumptions necessary in deriving the analytical solutions have a relatively minor impact on the resulting conclusions.

1,500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest

PubMed Central

Steinman, Byron A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Mann, Michael E.; Stansell, Nathan D.; Finney, Bruce P.

2012-01-01

Multiple paleoclimate proxies are required for robust assessment of past hydroclimatic conditions. Currently, estimates of drought variability over the past several thousand years are based largely on tree-ring records. We produced a 1,500-y record of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest using a physical model-based analysis of lake sediment oxygen isotope data. Our results indicate that during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (900–1300 AD) the Pacific Northwest experienced exceptional wetness in winter and that during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1450–1850 AD) conditions were drier, contrasting with hydroclimatic anomalies in the desert Southwest and consistent with climate dynamics related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These findings are somewhat discordant with drought records from tree rings, suggesting that differences in seasonal sensitivity between the two proxies allow a more compete understanding of the climate system and likely explain disparities in inferred climate trends over centennial timescales. PMID:22753510

Cost-effective handoff scheme based on mobility-aware dual pointer forwarding in proxy mobile IPv6 networks.

PubMed

Son, Seungsik; Jeong, Jongpil

2014-01-01

In this paper, a mobility-aware Dual Pointer Forwarding scheme (mDPF) is applied in Proxy Mobile IPv6 (PMIPv6) networks. The movement of a Mobile Node (MN) is classified as intra-domain and inter-domain handoff. When the MN moves, this scheme can reduce the high signaling overhead for intra-handoff/inter-handoff, because the Local Mobility Anchor (LMA) and Mobile Access Gateway (MAG) are connected by pointer chains. In other words, a handoff is aware of low mobility between the previously attached MAG (pMAG) and newly attached MAG (nMAG), and another handoff between the previously attached LMA (pLMA) and newly attached LMA (nLMA) is aware of high mobility. Based on these mobility-aware binding updates, the overhead of the packet delivery can be reduced. Also, we analyse the binding update cost and packet delivery cost for route optimization, based on the mathematical analytic model. Analytical results show that our mDPF outperforms the PMIPv6 and the other pointer forwarding schemes, in terms of reducing the total cost of signaling.

Reconstructing Holocene palaeo-environmental conditions in the Baltic: A multi-proxy comparison from the Little Belt (IODP Expedition 347, Site M0059)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotthoff, Ulrich; Andrén, Elinor; Andrén, Thomas; Ash, Jeanine; Bauersachs, Thorsten; Fanget, Anne-Sophie; Granoszewski, Wojciech; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Krupinski, Nadine; Peyron, Odile; Slomp, Caroline; Stepanova, Anna; Warnock, Jonathan; van Helmond, Niels; Expedition 347 Science Party

2016-04-01

Some of the largest marine environmental impacts from ongoing global climate change are occurring in continental shelf seas and enclosed basins, including severe oxygen depletion, intensifying stratification, and increasing temperatures. In order to predict future changes in water mass conditions, it is essential to reconstruct how these conditions have changed in the past against the background of climate changes. The brackish Baltic Sea is one of the largest semi-enclosed basins worldwide, and its sediment records provide a unique opportunity to analyse palaeo-environmental and climate change in central and northern Europe. IODP Expedition 347 recovered an exceptional set of sediment cores from the Baltic Sea which allow high-resolution reconstructions in unprecedented quality. We present a comparison of commonly-used proxies to reconstruct palaeoecosystems, -temperatures, and -salinity from IODP Site M0059 in the Little Belt over the past ˜8000 years. Our aim is to reconstruct the development of the terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the research area and the related environmental conditions, and to identify potential limitations of individual proxies. The age model for Site M0059 is based on 14Cdating, biostratigraphic correlation with neighbouring terrestrial pollen records, and sediment stratigraphy. Sedimentary organic carbon content and the bulk elemental composition have been measured, and can be used to determine the depositional environment and degree of oxygen depletion (e.g., Mo, Corg/Ptot). Pollen is used as proxy for vegetation development in the hinterland of the southern Baltic Sea and as a land/air-temperature proxy. Comparison with dinoflagellate cysts, insect remains, and green algae remains from the same samples provides a direct land-sea comparison. The application of the modern analogues technique to pollen assemblages has previously yielded precise results for late Pleistocene and Holocene datasets, including specific information on seasonality, but pollen-based reconstructions for Northern Europe may be hampered by plant migration effects. Palynomorph analyses are therefore complemented with analyses of lipid palaeothermometers, such as TEX86 and the long chain diol index (LDI), to reconstruct variations in Baltic Sea surface temperatures (SST). In addition, the MBT/CBT proxy is used to infer past changes in mean annual air temperatures (MAAT). Benthic foraminiferal δ18O and δ13C measurements (monospecific) and foraminifera and ostracod faunal assemblage analyses allow us to estimate bottom water salinity and environmental changes qualitatively and quantitatively. Low bottom water salinity (˜23 in bottom waters) and varying diagenesis in the Little Belt's organic-rich sediments complicates the application of benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca as a palaeotemperature proxy. Reliable bottom water temperatures, however, are reconstructed using clumped isotope analyses of mollusc material. In addition, diatoms and the diol index (DI) are analysed to determine variation in salinity of the Baltic Sea's surface waters over the investigated time period. The results of this inter-proxy comparison study will be used to reconstruct gradients between different settings, e.g. how water column stratification developed, possibly if and how changes in seasonality occurred, and to identify the circumstances under which specific proxies may be affected by secondary impacts.

Reconstructing palaeo-environmental conditions in the Baltic: A multi-proxy comparison from IODP Site M0059 (Little Belt)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotthoff, Ulrich; Andrén, Thomas; Bauersachs, Thorsten; Fanget, Anne-Sophie; Granoszewski, Wojciech; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Krupinski, Nadine; Peyron, Odile; Stepanova, Anna; Cotterill, Carol

2015-04-01

Some of the largest marine environmental impacts from ongoing global climate change are occurring in continental shelf seas and enclosed basins, including severe oxygen depletion, intensifying stratification, and increasing temperatures. In order to predict future changes in water mass conditions, it is essential to reconstruct how these conditions have changed in the past. The brackish Baltic Sea is one of the largest semi-enclosed basins worldwide, and hence provides a unique opportunity to analyse past changes. IODP Expedition 347 recovered a unique set of long sediment cores from the Baltic Sea Basin which allow new high-resolution reconstructions. The application of existing and development of new proxies in such a setting is complicated, as environmental changes often occur on much faster time scales with much larger variations. Therefore, we present a comparison of commonly used proxies to reconstruct palaeoecosystems, -temperatures, and -salinity from IODP Site M0059 in the Little Belt. The age model for Site M0059 is based on 14C dating and biostratigraphic correlation with neighbouring terrestrial pollen records. The aim of our study is to reconstruct the development of the terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the research area and the related environmental conditions, and to identify potential limitations for specific proxies. Pollen is used as proxy for vegetation development in the hinterland of the southern Baltic Sea and as land/air-temperature proxies. By comparison with dinoflagellate cysts and green algae remains from the same samples, a direct land-sea comparison is provided. The application of the modern analogues technique to pollen assemblages has previously yielded precise results for late Pleistocene and Holocene datasets including specific information on seasonality, but pollen-based reconstructions for Northern Europe may be hampered by plant migration effects. Chironomid remains are used where possible as indicators for surface water conditions during the warm season. Analyses of palynomorphs and chironomids are complemented with the analysis of lipid palaeothermometers, such as TEX86 and the long chain diol index (LDI), which both allow reconstructing variation in sea surface temperatures (SST) of the Baltic Sea. In addition, the MBT/CBT proxy is used to infer past changes in mean annual air temperatures (MAAT) and the diol index (DI) to determine variation in salinity of the Baltic Sea's surface waters over the investigated time period. The low salinity (25 psu) of the Little Belt is a potential limitation for several of the used proxies, which could lead to under-estimation of paleo-temperatures. To quantitatively and qualitatively estimate the impact of salinity, δ18O measurements (monospecific) and faunal assemblage analyses are performed on benthic foraminifera as well as ostracod faunal assemblages, which are especially sensitive to bottom water salinity changes. The results of this inter-comparison study will be useful for the reconstruction of gradients between different settings, e.g. how water column stratification developed, possibly if and how changes in seasonality occurred, and to identify the circumstances under which specific proxies may be affected by secondary impacts.

Low-resolution Australasian palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, Bronwyn C.; Tyler, Jonathan J.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Goodwin, Ian D.; Gergis, Joëlle; Drysdale, Russell N.

2017-10-01

Non-annually resolved palaeoclimate records in the Australasian region were compiled to facilitate investigations of decadal to centennial climate variability over the past 2000 years. A total of 675 lake and wetland, geomorphic, marine, and speleothem records were identified. The majority of records are located near population centres in southeast Australia, in New Zealand, and across the maritime continent, and there are few records from the arid regions of central and western Australia. Each record was assessed against a set of a priori criteria based on temporal resolution, record length, dating methods, and confidence in the proxy-climate relationship over the Common Era. A subset of 22 records met the criteria and were endorsed for subsequent analyses. Chronological uncertainty was the primary reason why records did not meet the selection criteria. New chronologies based on Bayesian techniques were constructed for the high-quality subset to ensure a consistent approach to age modelling and quantification of age uncertainties. The primary reasons for differences between published and reconstructed age-depth models were the consideration of the non-singular distribution of ages in calibrated 14C dates and the use of estimated autocorrelation between sampled depths as a constraint for changes in accumulation rate. Existing proxies and reconstruction techniques that successfully capture climate variability in the region show potential to address spatial gaps and expand the range of climate variables covering the last 2000 years in the Australasian region. Future palaeoclimate research and records in Australasia could be greatly improved through three main actions: (i) greater data availability through the public archiving of published records; (ii) thorough characterisation of proxy-climate relationships through site monitoring and climate sensitivity tests; and (iii) improvement of chronologies through core-top dating, inclusion of tephra layers where possible, and increased date density during the Common Era.

Amplified Late Pliocene terrestrial warmth in northern high latitudes from greater radiative forcing and closed Arctic Ocean gateways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Ran; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Fletcher, Tamara L.; Tabor, Clay R.; Ballantyne, Ashley P.; Brady, Esther C.

2017-05-01

Proxy reconstructions of the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP, between 3.264 and 3.025 Ma) suggest terrestrial temperatures were much warmer in the northern high latitudes (55°-90°N, referred to as NHL) than present-day. Climate models participating in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 (PlioMIP1) tend to underestimate this warmth. For instance, the underestimate is ∼10 °C on average across NHL and up to 17 °C in the Canadian Arctic region in the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Here, we explore potential mPWP climate forcings that might contribute to this mPWP mismatch. We carry out seven experiments to assess terrestrial temperature responses to Pliocene Arctic gateway closure, variations in CO2 level, and orbital forcing at millennial time scale. To better compare the full range of simulated terrestrial temperatures with sparse proxy data, we introduce a pattern recognition technique that simplifies the model surface temperatures to a few representative patterns that can be validate with the limited terrestrial proxy data. The pattern recognition technique reveals two prominent features of simulated Pliocene surface temperature responses. First, distinctive patterns of amplified warming occur in the NHL, which can be explained by lowered surface elevation of Greenland, pattern and amount of Arctic sea ice loss, and changing strength of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Second, patterns of surface temperature response are similar among experiments with different forcing mechanisms. This similarity is due to strong feedbacks from responses in surface albedo and troposphere water vapor content to sea ice changes, which overwhelm distinctions in forcings from changes in insolation, CO2 forcing, and Arctic gateway closure. By comparing CCSM4 simulations with proxy records, we demonstrate that both model and proxy records show similar patterns of mPWP NHL terrestrial warmth, but the model underestimates the magnitude. High insolation, greater CO2 forcing, and Arctic gateways closure each contributes to reduce the underestimate by enhancing the Arctic warmth of 1-2 °C. These results highlight the importance of considering proxy NHL warmth in the context of Pliocene Arctic gateway changes, and variations in insolation and CO2 forcing.

A composite pollen-based stratotype for inter-regional evaluation of climatic events in New Zealand over the past 30,000 years (NZ-INTIMATE project)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrell, David J. A.; Almond, Peter C.; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Lowe, David J.; Newnham, Rewi M.

2013-08-01

Our review of paleoclimate information for New Zealand pertaining to the past 30,000 years has identified a general sequence of climatic events, spanning the onset of cold conditions marking the final phase of the Last Glaciation, through to the emergence to full interglacial conditions in the early Holocene. In order to facilitate more detailed assessments of climate variability and any leads or lags in the timing of climate changes across the region, a composite stratotype is proposed for New Zealand. The stratotype is based on terrestrial stratigraphic records and is intended to provide a standard reference for the intercomparison and evaluation of climate proxy records. We nominate a specific stratigraphic type record for each climatic event, using either natural exposure or drill core stratigraphic sections. Type records were selected on the basis of having very good numerical age control and a clear proxy record. In all cases the main proxy of the type record is subfossil pollen. The type record for the period from ca 30 to ca 18 calendar kiloyears BP (cal. ka BP) is designated in lake-bed sediments from a small morainic kettle lake (Galway tarn) in western South Island. The Galway tarn type record spans a period of full glacial conditions (Last Glacial Coldest Period, LGCP) within the Otira Glaciation, and includes three cold stadials separated by two cool interstadials. The type record for the emergence from glacial conditions following the termination of the Last Glaciation (post-Termination amelioration) is in a core of lake sediments from a maar (Pukaki volcanic crater) in Auckland, northern North Island, and spans from ca 18 to 15.64 ± 0.41 cal. ka BP. The type record for the Lateglacial period is an exposure of interbedded peat and mud at montane Kaipo bog, eastern North Island. In this high-resolution type record, an initial mild period was succeeded at 13.74 ± 0.13 cal. ka BP by a cooler period, which after 12.55 ± 0.14 cal. ka BP gave way to a progressive ascent to full interglacial conditions that were achieved by 11.88 ± 0.18 cal. ka BP. Although a type section is not formally designated for the Holocene Interglacial (11.88 ± 0.18 cal. ka BP to the present day), the sedimentary record of Lake Maratoto on the Waikato lowlands, northwestern North Island, is identified as a prospective type section pending the integration and updating of existing stratigraphic and proxy datasets, and age models. The type records are interconnected by one or more dated tephra layers, the ages of which are derived from Bayesian depositional modelling and OxCal-based calibrations using the IntCal09 dataset. Along with the type sections and the Lake Maratoto record, important, well-dated terrestrial reference records are provided for each climate event. Climate proxies from these reference records include pollen flora, stable isotopes from speleothems, beetle and chironomid fauna, and glacier moraines. The regional composite stratotype provides a benchmark against which to compare other records and proxies. Based on the composite stratotype, we provide an updated climate event stratigraphic classification for the New Zealand region. The stratotype and event classification are not intended to act as definitive statements of paleoclimate history for the New Zealand region, but rather provide a firm baseline against which to compare other records including those from the marine realm.

Uncertainty and inference in the world of paleoecological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLachlan, J. S.; Dawson, A.; Dietze, M.; Finley, M.; Hooten, M.; Itter, M.; Jackson, S. T.; Marlon, J. R.; Raiho, A.; Tipton, J.; Williams, J.

2017-12-01

Proxy data in paleoecology and paleoclimatology share a common set of biases and uncertainties: spatiotemporal error associated with the taphonomic processes of deposition, preservation, and dating; calibration error between proxy data and the ecosystem states of interest; and error in the interpolation of calibrated estimates across space and time. Researchers often account for this daunting suite of challenges by applying qualitave expert judgment: inferring the past states of ecosystems and assessing the level of uncertainty in those states subjectively. The effectiveness of this approach can be seen by the extent to which future observations confirm previous assertions. Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) statistical approaches allow an alternative approach to accounting for multiple uncertainties in paleo data. HB estimates of ecosystem state formally account for each of the common uncertainties listed above. HB approaches can readily incorporate additional data, and data of different types into estimates of ecosystem state. And HB estimates of ecosystem state, with associated uncertainty, can be used to constrain forecasts of ecosystem dynamics based on mechanistic ecosystem models using data assimilation. Decisions about how to structure an HB model are also subjective, which creates a parallel framework for deciding how to interpret data from the deep past.Our group, the Paleoecological Observatory Network (PalEON), has applied hierarchical Bayesian statistics to formally account for uncertainties in proxy based estimates of past climate, fire, primary productivity, biomass, and vegetation composition. Our estimates often reveal new patterns of past ecosystem change, which is an unambiguously good thing, but we also often estimate a level of uncertainty that is uncomfortably high for many researchers. High levels of uncertainty are due to several features of the HB approach: spatiotemporal smoothing, the formal aggregation of multiple types of uncertainty, and a coarseness in statistical models of taphonomic process. Each of these features provides useful opportunities for statisticians and data-generating researchers to assess what we know about the signal and the noise in paleo data and to improve inference about past changes in ecosystem state.

Abrupt Climate Change in the Atlantic Ocean During the Last 20,000 Years: Insights from Multi-Element Analyses of Benthic and Planktic Foraminifera and a Coupled OA-GCM

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-01

paleoceanographic and terrestrial climate proxies . Greenland ice cores, in particular, provide evidence of large amplitude, very rapid climate change during...received the most attention because it is the largest Holocene excursion in the GISP2 810 record [Alley et al., 1997]. Multiple proxies in Greenland ice...latitude North Atlantic foraminiferal-based proxies such as modem analogue technique [Marchal et al., 2002; Risebrobakken et al., 2003], but

Collaborative Project: Development of an Isotope-Enabled CESM for Testing Abrupt Climate Changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Zhengyu

One of the most important validations for a state-of-art Earth System Model (ESM) with respect to climate changes is the simulation of the climate evolution and abrupt climate change events in the Earth’s history of the last 21,000 years. However, one great challenge for model validation is that ESMs usually do not directly simulate geochemical variables that can be compared directly with past proxy records. In this proposal, we have met this challenge by developing the simulation capability of major isotopes in a state-of-art ESM, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), enabling us to make direct model-data comparison by comparingmore » the model directly against proxy climate records. Our isotope-enabled ESM incorporates the capability of simulating key isotopes and geotracers, notably δ 18O, δD, δ 14C, and δ 13C, Nd and Pa/Th. The isotope-enabled ESM have been used to perform some simulations for the last 21000 years. The direct comparison of these simulations with proxy records has shed light on the mechanisms of important climate change events.« less

Long chain diol index (LDI) as an organic-based sea surface temperature proxy in the Korean East Sea (NW Pacific)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gal, Jong-Ku; Kim, Jung-Hyun; Kang, Su-Jin; Lee, Dong-Hun; Shin, Kyung-Hoon

2016-04-01

Long chain diol index (LDI) was introduced as an organic-based sea surface temperature (SST) proxy. LDI is expressed as the C30 1,15-diol abundance relative to those of C28 1,13-, C30 1,13- and C30 1,15-diols. There were a few studies which accessed the potential of LDI based on the culture, core top sediments, suspended particulate organic matters, and down-core sediments. However it is still unknown about the source of the diols and robustness as the SST proxy in the various marine environments. In the current study, we examined the applicability of the LDI in the East Sea of Korea where productivity and thus sedimentation rates are high. We will compare the LDI data with those of alkenone-based UK'37 by analyzing two multicores covering the last 100 year.

Stability of biological father presence as a proxy for family stability: cross-racial associations with the longitudinal development of emotion regulation in toddlerhood.

PubMed

Bocknek, Erika London; Brophy-Herb, Holly E; Fitzgerald, Hiram E; Schiffman, Rachel F; Vogel, Cheri

2014-01-01

The current study, utilizing data from the National Early Head Start Research and Evaluation Project (Love et al., 2005) explored the relationship between biological father presence and emotion regulation over toddlerhood among children from low-income families. Conceptualizing biological father presence as a proxy for family role development, results are interpreted from a role development theoretical perspective. The latent growth curve model was compared based on child ethnoracial status (African American, Caucasian, Hispanic) and child gender. Consistent biological father presence was associated with toddlers' regulatory development across toddlerhood, and this relationship was most robust among Caucasian toddlers as compared to African American toddlers. Findings for Hispanic toddlers were not significantly different from those of Caucasian or African American families. Results bolster the literature on father presence and child outcomes. Analyses address consistency in father presence as a proxy for coherent role development and define a link between consistent father presence and children's regulatory development, demonstrating ethnoracial differences which are likely attributed to the social construction of family roles. © 2014 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

A Security Architecture Based on Trust Management for Pervasive Computing Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-01

SmartSpace framework, we extended the C2 [16] ar- chitecture, which in turn is based on the Centaurus [10] model. In Centaurus a Client can access...the services provided by the nearest Centaurus Service Manager (SM) via some short-range communi- cation. The SM acts as an active proxy by executing...The In the Centaurus project [10], the main design goal is the development of a framework for building portals to services using various types of

Photospheric activity of the Sun with VIRGO and GOLF. Comparison with standard activity proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salabert, D.; García, R. A.; Jiménez, A.; Bertello, L.; Corsaro, E.; Pallé, P. L.

2017-12-01

We study the variability of solar activity using new photospheric proxies originally developed for the analysis of stellar magnetism with the CoRoT and Kepler photometric observations. These proxies were obtained by tracking the temporal modulations in the observations associated with the spots and magnetic features as the Sun rotates. We analyzed 21 yr of observations, spanning solar cycles 23 and 24, collected by the space-based photometric VIRGO and radial velocity GOLF instruments on board the SoHO satellite. We then calculated the photospheric activity proxy Sph is for each of the three VIRGO photometers and the associated Svel proxy from the radial velocity GOLF observations. Comparisons with several standard solar activity proxies sensitive to different layers of the Sun demonstrate that these new activity proxies, Sph and Svel, provide a new manner to monitor solar activity. We show that both the long- and short-term magnetic variabilities respectively associated with the 11-yr cycle and the quasi-biennial oscillation are well monitored, and that the magnetic field interaction between the subsurface, photosphere, and chromosphere of the Sun was modified between Cycle 24 and Cycle 23. Furthermore, the photometric proxies show a wavelength dependence of the response function of the solar photosphere among the three channels of the VIRGO photometers, providing inputs for the study of the stellar magnetism of Sun-like stars.

Adolescents' Observations of Parent Pain Behaviors: Preliminary Measure Validation and Test of Social Learning Theory in Pediatric Chronic Pain.

PubMed

Stone, Amanda L; Walker, Lynn S

2017-01-01

Evaluate psychometric properties of a measure of adolescents’ observations of parental pain behaviors and use this measure to test hypotheses regarding pain-specific social learning. We created a proxy-report of the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Pain Behavior–Short Form (PPB) for adolescents to report on parental pain behaviors, which we labeled the PPB-Proxy. Adolescents (n = 138, mean age = 14.20) with functional abdominal pain completed the PPB-Proxy and a parent completed the PPB. Adolescents and their parents completed measures of pain and disability during the adolescent’s clinic visit for abdominal pain. Adolescents subsequently completed a 7-day pain diary period. The PPB-Proxy moderately correlated with the PPB, evidencing that adolescents observe and can report on parental pain behaviors. Both the PPB-Proxy and PPB significantly correlated with adolescents’ pain-related disability. Parental modeling of pain behaviors could represent an important target for assessment and treatment in pediatric chronic pain patients.

Pseudoproxy Experiments Using the BARCAST Reconstruction Technique: Effects on Spatiotemporal Persistence Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsen, T.; Divine, D.; Rypdal, M.; Werner, J.; Rypdal, K.

2016-12-01

A modified two-dimensional stochastic-diffusive energy balance model (EBM) defined on a sphere was used for generating pseudoproxy/instrumental data and target data for surface temperature. The EBM is described in Rypdal et al. (2015). The target field has prescribed long-range memory (LRM) properties in time, and a frequency-dependent autocorrelation function in space. The Bayesian hierarchical model BARCAST, was used to generate surface temperature field reconstructions of an area corresponding to the European landmass for the past millennium. BARCAST has a built-in multivariate AR(1) model for the evolution of the temperature field, with an exponential, spatial covariance function, (Tingley & Huybers, 2010). The AR(1) process has a short-range memory, and we seek to find out how the competing spatiotemporal models influence the persistence of the reconstruction. A number of pseudoproxy experiments were performed with a fixed proxy network, using different signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) and colors of noise, (white/red). To study the persistence properties, the power-law relation of the power spectral density for LRM processes was used: S(f) f-β. The spectral exponent β was estimated both for local data and the spatial mean of the full region. The local β for the target varies between (0.1, 0.4), and for the spatial mean β 0.6. Results for the reconstructions show that the local and global memory is influenced by the noise color and level. Low noise levels or absence of noise results in reconstructions that exhibit similar properties as the target, while for higher noise levels the reconstructions have memory properties of a white/red character, (SNR=0.3 by standard deviation). Since an SNR of 0.5-0.25 is considered realistic for real proxy records, this implies that estimates of temporal persistence from proxy-based reconstructions reflect the proxy noise to a high degree, and not the signal as desired. Rypdal et al., 2015: Spatiotemporal Long-Range Persistence in Earth's Temperature Field: Analysis of Stochastic-Diffusive Energy Balance Models. J. Climate, 28, 8379-8395. Tingley & Huybers, 2010: A Bayesian algorithm for reconstructing climate anomalies in space and time. Part I: Development and applications to paleoclimate reconstruction problems. J. Climate, 23, 2759-2781.

Evaluating the Effect of Autogenic Sedimentation on the Preservation of Climate Proxy Records: Modeling and Examples from the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trampush, S. M.; Hajek, E. A.

2016-12-01

The stratigraphic record provides a vital opportunity to investigate how changes in climate can impact many different landscapes and seascapes. However, the inherent variability in sedimentation within many depositional environments may mask or remove the signature of climate change. A common solution is to use geochemical proxies - usually collected at regular stratigraphic intervals - to independently identify climate events. This approach doesn't account for the potentially significant variability in deposition and erosion time series resulting from autogenic landscape dynamics. In order to explore how geochemical proxy records could be overprinted by landscape dynamics, we use a 1D stochastic sedimentation model where we mimic fluvial, lacustrine, shallow marine, and deep marine environmental dynamics by varying the frequency-magnitude distributions of sedimentation rates. We find that even conservative estimates of the frequency and magnitude of stochastic sedimentation variability can heavily modify proxy records in characteristic ways by alternately removing, compressing, and expanding portions of the record, regardless of the magnitude or duration of the climatic event. Our model results are consistent with observations of the carbon isotope excursions of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) preserved within both fluvial (e.g. the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming and the Piceance Basin, Colorado) and shallow marine (e.g. the New Jersey shelf) deposits. Our results suggest that we may be able to use existing geochemical proxy records within well studied, global climate events, such as the PETM, to constrain the variability in sedimentation present within different depositional environments.

Geo-social media as a proxy for hydrometeorological data for streamflow estimation and to improve flood monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Restrepo-Estrada, Camilo; de Andrade, Sidgley Camargo; Abe, Narumi; Fava, Maria Clara; Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario; de Albuquerque, João Porto

2018-02-01

Floods are one of the most devastating types of worldwide disasters in terms of human, economic, and social losses. If authoritative data is scarce, or unavailable for some periods, other sources of information are required to improve streamflow estimation and early flood warnings. Georeferenced social media messages are increasingly being regarded as an alternative source of information for coping with flood risks. However, existing studies have mostly concentrated on the links between geo-social media activity and flooded areas. Thus, there is still a gap in research with regard to the use of social media as a proxy for rainfall-runoff estimations and flood forecasting. To address this, we propose using a transformation function that creates a proxy variable for rainfall by analysing geo-social media messages and rainfall measurements from authoritative sources, which are later incorporated within a hydrological model for streamflow estimation. We found that the combined use of official rainfall values with the social media proxy variable as input for the Probability Distributed Model (PDM), improved streamflow simulations for flood monitoring. The combination of authoritative sources and transformed geo-social media data during flood events achieved a 71% degree of accuracy and a 29% underestimation rate in a comparison made with real streamflow measurements. This is a significant improvement on the respective values of 39% and 58%, achieved when only authoritative data were used for the modelling. This result is clear evidence of the potential use of derived geo-social media data as a proxy for environmental variables for improving flood early-warning systems.

An empirical model of electron and ion fluxes derived from observations at geosynchronous orbit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denton, M. H.; Thomsen, M. F.; Jordanova, V. K.

Knowledge of the plasma fluxes at geosynchronous orbit is important to both scientific and operational investigations. We present a new empirical model of the ion flux and the electron flux at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV. The model is based on a total of 82 satellite-years of observations from the Magnetospheric Plasma Analyzer instruments on Los Alamos National Laboratory satellites at GEO. These data are assigned to a fixed grid of 24 local-times and 40 energies, at all possible values of Kp. Bi-linear interpolation is used between grid points to provide the ionmore » flux and the electron flux values at any energy and local-time, and for given values of geomagnetic activity (proxied by the 3-hour Kp index), and also for given values of solar activity (proxied by the daily F10.7 index). Initial comparison of the electron flux from the model with data from a Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II (CEASE-II), also located at geosynchronous orbit, indicate a good match during both quiet and disturbed periods. The model is available for distribution as a FORTRAN code that can be modified to suit user-requirements.« less

An empirical model of electron and ion fluxes derived from observations at geosynchronous orbit

DOE PAGES

Denton, M. H.; Thomsen, M. F.; Jordanova, V. K.; ...

2015-04-01

Knowledge of the plasma fluxes at geosynchronous orbit is important to both scientific and operational investigations. We present a new empirical model of the ion flux and the electron flux at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV. The model is based on a total of 82 satellite-years of observations from the Magnetospheric Plasma Analyzer instruments on Los Alamos National Laboratory satellites at GEO. These data are assigned to a fixed grid of 24 local-times and 40 energies, at all possible values of Kp. Bi-linear interpolation is used between grid points to provide the ionmore » flux and the electron flux values at any energy and local-time, and for given values of geomagnetic activity (proxied by the 3-hour Kp index), and also for given values of solar activity (proxied by the daily F10.7 index). Initial comparison of the electron flux from the model with data from a Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II (CEASE-II), also located at geosynchronous orbit, indicate a good match during both quiet and disturbed periods. The model is available for distribution as a FORTRAN code that can be modified to suit user-requirements.« less

Contradictory cooling in a warmer world? the climate of the Mediterranean region during the ';Holocene Thermal Maximum'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, B.

2013-12-01

Extensive evidence from high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere indicates that temperatures were warmer than present during the early-mid Holocene, a period known as the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). The existence of the HTM over lower mid-latitudes and the sub-tropics however is less clear, with pollen-based reconstructions in particular actually indicating a contrary cooling at this time in these regions. This apparent cooling is controversial because it is not shown in climate model simulations, which indicate that the HTM occurred across all extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is also supported by alkenone based SST reconstructions, which also show a much more widespread HTM than indicated by the pollen data. Here this problem is investigated by reviewing the evidence both for, and against, the HTM in the Mediterranean region, which represents one of the most intensively studied regions of sub-tropical climate in the Northern Hemisphere. This evidence includes a large number of both marine and terrestrial records that can be directly compared due to their close proximity around the Mediterranean Sea. The results highlight the potential for bias in both marine and terrestrial climate proxies, but despite many criticisms of the pollen-based record, it is shown that the existence of more extensive temperate vegetation in the early-mid Holocene in the Mediterranean is difficult to explain by anything other than a cooler climate. For instance, vegetation models driven by climate model output show that the warmer climate suggested by the models produces a HTM vegetation even more arid than today. The results have important implications in the interpretation of proxy records, but perhaps most importantly, the potential for climate models to underestimate cooling processes in a warmer world needs further investigation.

Cerebellum as a forward but not inverse model in visuomotor adaptation task: a tDCS-based and modeling study.

PubMed

Yavari, Fatemeh; Mahdavi, Shirin; Towhidkhah, Farzad; Ahmadi-Pajouh, Mohammad-Ali; Ekhtiari, Hamed; Darainy, Mohammad

2016-04-01

Despite several pieces of evidence, which suggest that the human brain employs internal models for motor control and learning, the location of these models in the brain is not yet clear. In this study, we used transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) to manipulate right cerebellar function, while subjects adapt to a visuomotor task. We investigated the effect of this manipulation on the internal forward and inverse models by measuring two kinds of behavior: generalization of training in one direction to neighboring directions (as a proxy for inverse models) and localization of the hand position after movement without visual feedback (as a proxy for forward model). The experimental results showed no effect of cerebellar tDCS on generalization, but significant effect on localization. These observations support the idea that the cerebellum is a possible brain region for internal forward, but not inverse model formation. We also used a realistic human head model to calculate current density distribution in the brain. The result of this model confirmed the passage of current through the cerebellum. Moreover, to further explain some observed experimental results, we modeled the visuomotor adaptation process with the help of a biologically inspired method known as population coding. The effect of tDCS was also incorporated in the model. The results of this modeling study closely match our experimental data and provide further evidence in line with the idea that tDCS manipulates FM's function in the cerebellum.

Regression-Based Estimates of Observed Functional Status in Centenarians

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Meghan B.; Miller, L. Stephen; Woodard, John L.; Davey, Adam; Martin, Peter; Burgess, Molly; Poon, Leonard W.

2011-01-01

Purpose of the Study: There is lack of consensus on the best method of functional assessment, and there is a paucity of studies on daily functioning in centenarians. We sought to compare associations between performance-based, self-report, and proxy report of functional status in centenarians. We expected the strongest relationships between proxy reports and observed performance of basic activities of daily living (BADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs). We hypothesized that the discrepancy between self-report and observed daily functioning would be modified by cognitive status. We additionally sought to provide clinicians with estimates of centenarians’ observed daily functioning based on their mental status in combination with subjective measures of activities of daily living (ADLs). Design and Methods: Two hundred and forty-four centenarians from the Georgia Centenarian Study were included in this cross-sectional population-based study. Measures included the Direct Assessment of Functional Status, self-report and proxy report of functional status, and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Results: Associations between observed and proxy reports were stronger than between observed and self-report across BADL and IADL measures. A significant MMSE by type of report interaction was found, indicating that lower MMSE performance is associated with a greater discrepancy between subjective and objective ADL measures. Implications: Results demonstrate associations between 3 methods of assessing functional status and suggest proxy reports are generally more accurate than self-report measures. Cognitive status accounted for some of the discrepancy between observed and self-reports, and we provide clinicians with tables to estimate centenarians’ performance on observed functional measures based on MMSE and subjective report of functional status. PMID:20974657

DIRAC distributed secure framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casajus, A.; Graciani, R.; LHCb DIRAC Team

2010-04-01

DIRAC, the LHCb community Grid solution, provides access to a vast amount of computing and storage resources to a large number of users. In DIRAC users are organized in groups with different needs and permissions. In order to ensure that only allowed users can access the resources and to enforce that there are no abuses, security is mandatory. All DIRAC services and clients use secure connections that are authenticated using certificates and grid proxies. Once a client has been authenticated, authorization rules are applied to the requested action based on the presented credentials. These authorization rules and the list of users and groups are centrally managed in the DIRAC Configuration Service. Users submit jobs to DIRAC using their local credentials. From then on, DIRAC has to interact with different Grid services on behalf of this user. DIRAC has a proxy management service where users upload short-lived proxies to be used when DIRAC needs to act on behalf of them. Long duration proxies are uploaded by users to a MyProxy service, and DIRAC retrieves new short delegated proxies when necessary. This contribution discusses the details of the implementation of this security infrastructure in DIRAC.

Evaluation of a chemical proxy for fire intensity: A potential tool for studying fire-climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hockaday, W. C.; White, J. D.; Von Bargen, J.; Yao, J.

2015-12-01

The legacy of wildfire is recorded in the geologic record, due to the stability of charcoal. Well-preserved charcoal is abundant in paleo-soils and sediments, documenting paleo-fires affecting even the earliest land plants. The dominant role of fire in shaping the biosphere is evidenced by some 40% of the land surface which is occupied by fire-prone and fire-adapted biomes: boreal forest, savanna, grassland, and Mediterranean shrubland. While fire ecologists appreciate the role that fire played in the evolution of these ecosystems, and climate scientists appreciate the role of these biomes in the regulation of Earth's climate, our understanding of the system of fire-vegetation-climate feedbacks is poor. This knowledge gap exists because we lack tools for evaluating change in fire regimes of the past for which climate proxy records exist. Fire regime is a function of fire frequency and fire intensity. Although fire frequency estimates are available from laminated sediment and tree ring records, tools for estimating paleo-fire intensity are lacking. We have recently developed a chemical proxy for fire intensity that is based upon the molecular structure of charcoal, assessed using solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. The molecular dimensions of aromatic domains in charcoal increased linearly (R2 = 0.9) with the intensity (temperature x duration) of heating. Our initial field-based validation in prescribed fires shows a promising correlation (R2 = 0.7) between the proxy-based estimates and thermistor-based measurements of fire intensity. This presentation will discuss the competencies and potential limitations of this novel proxy.

Salinity controls on Na incorporation in Red Sea planktonic foraminifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mezger, E. M.; de Nooijer, L. J.; Boer, W.; Brummer, G. J. A.; Reichart, G. J.

2016-12-01

Whereas several well-established proxies are available for reconstructing past temperatures, salinity remains challenging to assess. Reconstructions based on the combination of (in)organic temperature proxies and foraminiferal stable oxygen isotopes result in relatively large uncertainties, which may be reduced by application of a direct salinity proxy. Cultured benthic and planktonic foraminifera showed that Na incorporation in foraminiferal shell calcite provides a potential independent proxy for salinity. Here we present the first field calibration of such a potential proxy. Living planktonic foraminiferal specimens from the Red Sea surface waters were collected and analyzed for their Na/Ca content using laser ablation quadrupole inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Using the Red Sea as a natural laboratory, the calibration covers a broad range of salinities over a steep gradient within the same water mass. For both Globigerinoides ruber and Globigerinoides sacculifer calcite Na/Ca increases with salinity, albeit with a relatively large intraspecimen and interspecimen variability. The field-based calibration is similar for both species from a salinity of 36.8 up to 39.6, while values for G. sacculifer deviate from this trend in the northernmost transect. It is hypothesized that the foraminifera in the northernmost part of the Red Sea are (partly) expatriated and hence should be excluded from the Na/Ca-salinity calibration. Incorporation of Na in foraminiferal calcite therefore provides a potential proxy for salinity, although species-specific calibrations are still required and more research on the effect of temperature is needed.

The validity of proxy-based data on loneliness in suicide research: a case-control psychological autopsy study in rural China.

PubMed

Niu, Lu; Jia, Cunxian; Ma, Zhenyu; Wang, Guojun; Yu, Zhenjun; Zhou, Liang

2018-05-01

There is a lack of evidence for the role of loneliness on suicide using psychological autopsy method, and the validity of proxy informants' reports on loneliness is not well established. This study aimed to investigate the validity of proxy respondent reports on loneliness, and the reliability and validity of the University of California Los Angeles Loneliness Scale-6 (ULS-6) as used in psychological autopsy method with rural elderly people in China. Two hundred forty-two suicide cases and 242 normal community controls were selected, and the psychological autopsy method was utilized to collect information. Data from proxy respondents of the living controls were compared with data reported by the targets (gold standards). Subject-proxy concordance for ULS-6 was fair (ICC = 0.447) in the living controls. The suicide cases were more likely to have a higher score of ULS-6 than the living controls. Additionally, our data supported that ULS-6 had adequate psychometric properties in both suicide and control groups: factor analyses yielded one-factor component solution; Cronbach's alpha (both > 0.90) demonstrated excellent internal consistency; the Spearman correlation analysis indicated that the ULS-6 score was positively correlated with depression; and negatively correlated with QOL and social support. Results support proxy-based data on loneliness in research of suicide in older adults in rural China, and the ULS-6 is a psychometrically sound instrument for measuring loneliness in psychological autopsy studies.

Validity of at home model predictions as a proxy for personal exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from mobile phone base stations.

PubMed

Martens, Astrid L; Bolte, John F B; Beekhuizen, Johan; Kromhout, Hans; Smid, Tjabe; Vermeulen, Roel C H

2015-10-01

Epidemiological studies on the potential health effects of RF-EMF from mobile phone base stations require efficient and accurate exposure assessment methods. Previous studies have demonstrated that the 3D geospatial model NISMap is able to rank locations by indoor and outdoor RF-EMF exposure levels. This study extends on previous work by evaluating the suitability of using NISMap to estimate indoor RF-EMF exposure levels at home as a proxy for personal exposure to RF-EMF from mobile phone base stations. For 93 individuals in the Netherlands we measured personal exposure to RF-EMF from mobile phone base stations during a 24h period using an EME-SPY 121 exposimeter. Each individual kept a diary from which we extracted the time spent at home and in the bedroom. We used NISMap to model exposure at the home address of the participant (at bedroom height). We then compared model predictions with measurements for the 24h period, when at home, and in the bedroom by the Spearman correlation coefficient (rsp) and by calculating specificity and sensitivity using the 90th percentile of the exposure distribution as a cutpoint for high exposure. We found a low to moderate rsp of 0.36 for the 24h period, 0.51 for measurements at home, and 0.41 for measurements in the bedroom. The specificity was high (0.9) but with a low sensitivity (0.3). These results indicate that a meaningful ranking of personal RF-EMF can be achieved, even though the correlation between model predictions and 24h personal RF-EMF measurements is lower than with at home measurements. However, the use of at home RF-EMF field predictions from mobile phone base stations in epidemiological studies leads to significant exposure misclassification that will result in a loss of statistical power to detect health effects. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

What We Talk About When We Talk About Drought: Tree-ring Perspectives on Model-Data Comparisons in Hydroclimate Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Comparative analyses of paleoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations can provide valuable insights into past and future climate events. Conducting meaningful and quantitative comparisons, however, can be difficult for a variety of reasons. Here, we use tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions to discuss some best practices for paleoclimate-model comparisons, highlighting recent studies that have successfully used this approach. These analyses have improved our understanding of the Medieval-era megadroughts, ocean forcing of large scale drought patterns, and even climate change contributions to future drought risk. Additional work is needed, however, to better reconcile and formalize uncertainties across observed, modeled, and reconstructed variables. In this regard, process based forward models of proxy-systems will likely be a critical tool moving forward.

Quantifying the effect of diagenetic recrystallization on the Mg isotopic composition of marine carbonates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chanda, Piyali; Fantle, Matthew S.

2017-05-01

The Mg and Sr isotopic compositions (δ26Mg and 87Sr/86Sr) of pore fluids and bulk carbonates from Ocean Drilling Project Site 1171 (South Tasman Rise; 2148.2 m water depth) are reported, in order to evaluate the potential of diagenesis to alter carbonate-based geochemical proxies in an open marine system. Given the trace amounts of Mg in marine carbonates relative to coexisting pore fluids, diagenesis can alter carbonate δ26Mg, a promising proxy for seawater δ26Mg that may help elucidate long-term changes in the global Mg cycle. Constraints on the effect of diagenetic recrystallization on carbonate δ26Mg are therefore critical for accurate proxy interpretations. This study provides context for assessing the fidelity of geochemical proxy-reconstructions using the primary components (i.e., foraminiferal tests and nannofossils) of bulk carbonate sediments. We find that pore fluid δ26Mg values (on the DSM3 scale) at Site 1171 increase systematically with depth (from -0.72‰ to -0.39‰ in the upper ∼260 m), while the δ26Mg of bulk carbonates decrease systematically with depth (from -2.23‰ to -5.00‰ in the upper ∼260 m). This variability is ascribed primarily to carbonate recrystallization, with a small proportion of the variability due to down-hole changes in nannofossil and foraminiferal species composition. The inferred effect of diagenesis on bulk carbonate δ26Mg correlates with down-core changes in Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Na/Ca, and 87Sr/86Sr. A depositional reactive-transport model is employed to validate the hypothesis that calcite recrystallization in this system can generate sizeable shifts in carbonate δ26Mg. Model fits to the data suggest a fractionation factor and a partition coefficient that are consistent with previous work, assuming calcite recrystallization rates of ⩽7%/Ma constrained by Sr geochemistry. In addition, either partial dissolution or a distinctly different previous diagenetic regime must be invoked in order to explain aspects of the elemental chemistry and 87Sr/86Sr of relatively deep sediments from Holes A and C. This study indicates that the dynamics of a given sedimentary system can significantly alter bulk carbonate geochemistry, and presents a framework for considering the potential impact of such alteration on picked archives such as foraminiferal tests and nannofossils. Ultimately, this study contributes to the development of δ26Mg as a proxy for seawater δ26Mg by quantifying the susceptibility of carbonate δ26Mg to diagenetic alteration, particularly in sediments in open marine systems. This study suggests that because of the sensitivity of carbonate δ26Mg to diagenetic recrystallization, it can, in certain systems, be used to quantify the impact of diagenesis on carbonate-based geochemical proxies.

Climate sensitivity and meridional overturning circulation in the late Eocene using GFDL CM2.1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchinson, David K.; de Boer, Agatha M.; Coxall, Helen K.; Caballero, Rodrigo; Nilsson, Johan; Baatsen, Michiel

2018-06-01

The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT), which took place approximately 34 Ma ago, is an interval of great interest in Earth's climate history, due to the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet and major global cooling. Climate simulations of the transition are needed to help interpret proxy data, test mechanistic hypotheses for the transition and determine the climate sensitivity at the time. However, model studies of the EOT thus far typically employ control states designed for a different time period, or ocean resolution on the order of 3°. Here we developed a new higher resolution palaeoclimate model configuration based on the GFDL CM2.1 climate model adapted to a late Eocene (38 Ma) palaeogeography reconstruction. The ocean and atmosphere horizontal resolutions are 1° × 1.5° and 3° × 3.75° respectively. This represents a significant step forward in resolving the ocean geography, gateways and circulation in a coupled climate model of this period. We run the model under three different levels of atmospheric CO2: 400, 800 and 1600 ppm. The model exhibits relatively high sensitivity to CO2 compared with other recent model studies, and thus can capture the expected Eocene high latitude warmth within observed estimates of atmospheric CO2. However, the model does not capture the low meridional temperature gradient seen in proxies. Equatorial sea surface temperatures are too high in the model (30-37 °C) compared with observations (max 32 °C), although observations are lacking in the warmest regions of the western Pacific. The model exhibits bipolar sinking in the North Pacific and Southern Ocean, which persists under all levels of CO2. North Atlantic surface salinities are too fresh to permit sinking (25-30 psu), due to surface transport from the very fresh Arctic ( ˜ 20 psu), where surface salinities approximately agree with Eocene proxy estimates. North Atlantic salinity increases by 1-2 psu when CO2 is halved, and similarly freshens when CO2 is doubled, due to changes in the hydrological cycle.

Advance care planning and proxy decision making for patients with advanced Parkinson disease.

PubMed

Kwak, Jung; Wallendal, Maggie S; Fritsch, Thomas; Leo, Gary; Hyde, Trevor

2014-03-01

To examine advance care planning practices and proxy decision making by family healthcare proxies for patients with advanced Parkinson disease (PD). Sixty-four spouses and adult children, self-designated as a/the healthcare proxy for advanced patients with PD, participated in a cross-sectional survey study. Sixty patients with PD (95%) had completed a living will, but only 38% had shared the document with a physician. Among three life-support treatments--cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), ventilator, and feeding tube--47% of patients opted for CPR, 16% for ventilator, and 20% for feeding tube. Forty-two percent of proxies did not know patients' preferences for one or more of the three life-support treatments. Only 28% of proxies reported that patients wanted hospice. Patients who shared advance directives with a physician were significantly less likely to choose CPR and a feeding tube and they were more likely to choose hospice. In a hypothetical end-of-life (EOL) scenario, the majority of proxies chose comfort care as the EOL goal of care (53%) and pain and symptom management only as the course of treatment option (72%); these proxy choices for patients, however, were not associated with patients' preferences for life support. Patients' proxies preferred a form of shared decision making with other family members and physicians. Advance care planning is effective when patients, families, and healthcare professionals together consider future needs for EOL care decisions. Further efforts are needed by healthcare professionals to provide evidence-based education about care options and facilitate advanced discussion and shared decision making by the patient and families.

Astronomical tunings of the Oligocene-Miocene transition from Pacific Ocean Site U1334 and implications for the carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beddow, Helen M.; Liebrand, Diederik; Wilson, Douglas S.; Hilgen, Frits J.; Sluijs, Appy; Wade, Bridget S.; Lourens, Lucas J.

2018-03-01

Astronomical tuning of sediment sequences requires both unambiguous cycle pattern recognition in climate proxy records and astronomical solutions, as well as independent information about the phase relationship between these two. Here we present two different astronomically tuned age models for the Oligocene-Miocene transition (OMT) from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1334 (equatorial Pacific Ocean) to assess the effect tuning has on astronomically calibrated ages and the geologic timescale. These alternative age models (roughly from ˜ 22 to ˜ 24 Ma) are based on different tunings between proxy records and eccentricity: the first age model is based on an aligning CaCO3 weight (wt%) to Earth's orbital eccentricity, and the second age model is based on a direct age calibration of benthic foraminiferal stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) to eccentricity. To independently test which tuned age model and associated tuning assumptions are in best agreement with independent ages based on tectonic plate-pair spreading rates, we assign the tuned ages to magnetostratigraphic reversals identified in deep-marine magnetic anomaly profiles. Subsequently, we compute tectonic plate-pair spreading rates based on the tuned ages. The resultant alternative spreading-rate histories indicate that the CaCO3 tuned age model is most consistent with a conservative assumption of constant, or linearly changing, spreading rates. The CaCO3 tuned age model thus provides robust ages and durations for polarity chrons C6Bn.1n-C7n.1r, which are not based on astronomical tuning in the latest iteration of the geologic timescale. Furthermore, it provides independent evidence that the relatively large (several 10 000 years) time lags documented in the benthic foraminiferal isotope records relative to orbital eccentricity constitute a real feature of the Oligocene-Miocene climate system and carbon cycle. The age constraints from Site U1334 thus indicate that the delayed responses of the Oligocene-Miocene climate-cryosphere system and (marine) carbon cycle resulted from highly non-linear feedbacks to astronomical forcing.

Climatic interpretation of the length fluctuations of Glaciar Frías, North Patagonia, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leclercq, P. W.; Pitte, P.; Giesen, R. H.; Masiokas, M. H.; Oerlemans, J.

2011-10-01

We explore the climatic information contained in the record of length fluctuations of Glaciar Frías, in the North Patagonian Andes of Argentina. This record is one of the longest and most detailed glacier records in southern South America, starting in 1639. In order to interpret the length variations of Glaciar Frías since the maximum Little Ice Age extent in 1639, we use a combination of a simplified surface energy-balance model to calculate the glacier mass balance, and a flow-line model to account for the dynamical response of the glacier to changes in the climatic forcing. The overall retreat of the glacier observed over 1639-2009 is best explained by an annual mean temperature increase of 1.16 °C or a decrease in annual precipitation of 34%, most of which would have occurred during the 20th century. The glacier model is also forced with independent proxy-based reconstructions of precipitation and temperature, based on tree rings and a composition of documentary evidence, tree rings, sediments, corals, and ice cores. The uncertainties in the presently available proxy reconstructions are rather large, leading to a wide range in the modelled glacier length. Most of the observations lie within this range. However, in these reconstructions, the mid-17th century is too cold and the early 19th century ca. 0.7 °C too warm to explain the observed glacier lengths.

Modeling the Habitat Retreat of the Rediscovered Endemic Hawaiian Moth Omiodes continuatalis Wallengren (Lepidoptera: Crambidae)

PubMed Central

Vorsino, Adam E.; King, Cynthia B.; Haines, William P.; Rubinoff, Daniel

2013-01-01

Survey data over the last 100 years indicate that populations of the endemic Hawaiian leafroller moth, Omiodes continuatalis (Wallengren) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), have declined, and the species is extirpated from large portions of its original range. Declines have been attributed largely to the invasion of non-native parasitoid species into Hawaiian ecosystems. To quantify changes in O. continuatalis distribution, we applied the maximum entropy modeling approach using Maxent. The model referenced historical (1892–1967) and current (2004–2008) survey data, to create predictive habitat suitability maps which illustrate the probability of occurrence of O. continuatalis based on historical data as contrasted with recent survey results. Probability of occurrence is predicted based on the association of biotic (vegetation) and abiotic (proxy of precipitation, proxy of temperature, elevation) environmental factors with 141 recent and historic survey locations, 38 of which O. continuatalis were collected from. Models built from the historical and recent surveys suggest habitat suitable for O. continuatalis has changed significantly over time, decreasing both in quantity and quality. We reference these data to examine the potential effects of non-native parasitoids as a factor in changing habitat suitability and range contraction for O. continuatalis. Synthesis and applications: Our results suggest that the range of O. continuatalis, an endemic Hawaiian species of conservation concern, has shrunk as its environment has degraded. Although few range shifts have been previously demonstrated in insects, such contractions caused by pressure from introduced species may be important factors in insect extinctions. PMID:23300954

Applying a family systems lens to proxy decision making in clinical practice and research.

PubMed

Rolland, John S; Emanuel, Linda L; Torke, Alexia M

2017-03-01

When patients are incapacitated and face serious illness, family members must make medical decisions for the patient. Medical decision sciences give only modest attention to the relationships among patients and their family members, including impact that these relationships have on the decision-making process. A review of the literature reveals little effort to systematically apply a theoretical framework to the role of family interactions in proxy decision making. A family systems perspective can provide a useful lens through which to understand the dynamics of proxy decision making. This article considers the mutual impact of family systems on the processes and outcomes of proxy decision making. The article first reviews medical decision science's evolution and focus on proxy decision making and then reviews a family systems approach, giving particular attention to Rolland's Family Systems Illness Model. A case illustrates how clinical practice and how research would benefit from bringing family systems thinking to proxy decisions. We recommend including a family systems approach in medical decision science research and clinical practices around proxy decisions making. We propose that clinical decisions could be less conflicted and less emotionally troubling for families and clinicians if family systems approaches were included. This perspective opens new directions for research and novel approaches to clinical care. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Clashing paradigms: an empirical examination of cultural proxies and socioeconomic condition shaping Latino health.

PubMed

Echeverría, Sandra E; Pentakota, Sri Ram; Abraído-Lanza, Ana F; Janevic, Teresa; Gundersen, Daniel A; Ramirez, Sarah M; Delnevo, Cristine D

2013-10-01

Much debate exists regarding the role of culture versus socioeconomic position in shaping the health of Latino populations. We propose that both may matter for health and explicitly test their independent and joint effects on smoking and physical activity. We used the 2010 National Health Interview Survey, a population-based survey of the U.S. population, to estimate the prevalence of smoking and physical activity by language use (cultural proxy) and education among Latino adults (n = 4929). We fit log binomial regression models to estimate prevalence ratios and test for interaction. English-language use and educational attainment were each independently associated with smoking and physical activity. Joint effect models showed that individuals with both greater use of the English language and low levels of education were nearly three times more likely to smoke (prevalence ratio, 2.59; 95% confidence interval, 1.83-3.65) than those with low English language use and high education (referent group); high acculturation and high education were jointly associated with increased activity (prevalence ratio 2.24, 95% confidence interval, 1.79-2.81). Cultural proxies such as language use and educational attainment are both important determinants of health among Latinos. Their joint effect suggests the need to simultaneously consider Latinos' socioeconomic position and their increased risk of adopting health-damaging behaviors while addressing culturally-specific factors that may mitigate risk. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Indian Ocean Atmospheric Circulation on Warm Pool Hydroclimate During the Holocene Epoch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tierney, J.E.; Oppo, D. W.; LeGrande, A. N.; Huang, Y.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.

2012-01-01

Existing paleoclimate data suggest a complex evolution of hydroclimate within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) during the Holocene epoch. Here we introduce a new leaf wax isotope record from Sulawesi, Indonesia and compare proxy water isotope data with ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations to identify mechanisms influencing Holocene IPWP hydroclimate. Modeling simulations suggest that orbital forcing causes heterogenous changes in precipitation across the IPWP on a seasonal basis that may account for the differences in time-evolution of the proxy data at respective sites. Both the proxies and simulations suggest that precipitation variability during the September-November (SON) season is important for hydroclimate in Borneo. The preeminence of the SON season suggests that a seasonally lagged relationship between the Indian monsoon and Indian Ocean Walker circulation influences IPWP hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene.

Mapping the Proxies of Memory and Learning Function in Senior Adults with High-performing, Normal Aging and Neurocognitive Disorders.

PubMed

Lu, Hanna; Xi, Ni; Fung, Ada W T; Lam, Linda C W

2018-06-09

Memory and learning, as the core brain function, shows controversial results across studies focusing on aging and dementia. One of the reasons is because of the multi-faceted nature of memory and learning. However, there is still a dearth of comparable proxies with psychometric and morphometric portrait in clinical and non-clinical populations. We aim to investigate the proxies of memory and learning function with direct and derived measures and examine their associations with morphometric features in senior adults with different cognitive status. Based on two modality-driven tests, we assessed the component-specific memory and learning in the individuals with high performing (HP), normal aging, and neurocognitive disorders (NCD) (n = 488). Structural magnetic resonance imaging was used to measure the regional cortical thickness with surface-based morphometry analysis in a subsample (n = 52). Compared with HP elderly, the ones with normal aging and minor NCD showed declined recognition memory and working memory, whereas had better learning performance (derived scores). Meanwhile, major NCD patients showed more breakdowns of memory and learning function. The correlation between proxies of memory and learning and cortical thickness exhibited the overlapped and unique neural underpinnings. The proxies of memory and learning could be characterized by component-specific constructs with psychometric and morphometric bases. Overall, the constructs of memory are more likely related to the pathological changes, and the constructs of learning tend to reflect the cognitive abilities of compensation.

Reconstructing pre-instrumental streamflow in Eastern Australia using a water balance approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tozer, C. R.; Kiem, A. S.; Vance, T. R.; Roberts, J. L.; Curran, M. A. J.; Moy, A. D.

2018-03-01

Streamflow reconstructions based on paleoclimate proxies provide much longer records than the short instrumental period records on which water resource management plans are currently based. In Australia there is a lack of in-situ high resolution paleoclimate proxy records, but remote proxies with teleconnections to Australian climate have utility in producing streamflow reconstructions. Here we investigate, via a case study for a catchment in eastern Australia, the novel use of an Antarctic ice-core based rainfall reconstruction within a Budyko-framework to reconstruct ∼1000 years of annual streamflow. The resulting streamflow reconstruction captures interannual to decadal variability in the instrumental streamflow, validating both the use of the ice core rainfall proxy record and the Budyko-framework method. In the preinstrumental era the streamflow reconstruction shows longer wet and dry epochs and periods of streamflow variability that are higher than observed in the instrumental era. Importantly, for both the instrumental record and preinstrumental reconstructions, the wet (dry) epochs in the rainfall record are shorter (longer) in the streamflow record and this non-linearity must be considered when inferring hydroclimatic risk or historical water availability directly from rainfall proxy records alone. These insights provide a better understanding of present infrastructure vulnerability in the context of past climate variability for eastern Australia. The streamflow reconstruction presented here also provides a better understanding of the range of hydroclimatic variability possible, and therefore represents a more realistic baseline on which to quantify the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on water security.

Proxy comparisons for Paleogene sea water temperature reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Bar, Marijke; de Nooijer, Lennart; Schouten, Stefan; Ziegler, Martin; Sluijs, Appy; Reichart, Gert-Jan

2017-04-01

Several studies have reconstructed Paleogene seawater temperatures, using single- or multi-proxy approaches (e.g. Hollis et al., 2012 and references therein), particularly comparing TEX86 with foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca. Whereas trends often agree relatively well, absolute temperatures can differ significantly between proxies, possibly because they are often applied to (extreme) climate events/transitions (e.g. Sluijs et al., 2011), where certain assumptions underlying the temperature proxies may not hold true. A more general long-term multi-proxy temperature reconstruction, is therefore necessary to validate the different proxies and underlying presumed boundary conditions. Here we apply a multi-proxy approach using foraminiferal calcite and organic proxies to generate a low-resolution, long term (80 Myr) paleotemperature record for the Bass River core (New Jersey, North Atlantic). Oxygen (δ18O), clumped isotopes (Δ47) and Mg/Ca of benthic foraminifera, as well as the organic proxies MBT'-CBT, TEX86H, U37K' index and the LDI were determined on the same sediments. The youngest samples of Miocene age are characterized by a high BIT index (>0.8) and fractional abundance of the C32 1,15-diol (>0.6; de Bar et al., 2016) and the absence of foraminifera, all suggesting high continental input and shallow depths. The older sediment layers (˜30 to 90 Ma) display BIT values and C32 1,15-diol fractional abundances <0.3, implying marine conditions. The temperature records (˜30 to 90 Ma) show the global transition from the Cretaceous to Eocene greenhouse world into the icehouse climate. The TEX86H sea surface temperature (SST) record shows a gradual cooling over time of ˜35 to 20 ˚ C, whereas the δ18O-derived bottom water temperatures (BWTs) decrease from ˜20 to 10 ˚ C, and the Mg/Ca and Δ47-derived BWTs decrease from ˜25 to 15 ˚ C. The absolute temperature difference between the δ18O and Δ47, might be explained by local variations in seawater δ18O composition. Similarly, the difference in Mg/Ca- and δ18O-derived BWTs is likely caused by uncertainties in the seawater Mg/Ca model and the relationship between the seawater Mg/Ca and the incorporation of Mg into the foraminiferal shell. The U37K' index could not be calculated as only di-unsaturated alkenones were identified, indicating that SSTs were > 28 ˚ C. In contrast, LDI temperatures were considerably lower and varied only between 21 and 19 ˚ C. MBT'-CBT derived mean annual temperatures for the ages of 9 and 20 Ma align well with the TEX86H SSTs. Overall, the agreement of the paleotemperature proxies in terms of main tendencies, and the covariation with the global benthic oxygen isotope compilation suggests that temperatures in this region varied in concert with global climate variability. The fact that offsets between the different proxies used here remain fairly constant down to 90 Ma ago, indicates that the fundamental mechanisms responsible for the proxy relation to temperature remained constant. de Bar, M. W., et al. (2016), Constraints on the application of long chain diol proxies in the Iberian Atlantic margin, Org. Geochem., 101, 184-195. Hollis, C. J., et al. (2012), Early Paleogene temperature history of the Southwest Pacific Ocean: Reconciling proxies and models, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 349, 53-66. Sluijs, A., et al. (2011), Southern ocean warming, sea level and hydrological change during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, Climate of the Past, 7(1), 47-61.

Reconstructing Holocene temperature and salinity variations in the western Baltic Sea region: a multi-proxy comparison from the Little Belt (IODP Expedition 347, Site M0059)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotthoff, Ulrich; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Ash, Jeanine L.; Fanget, Anne-Sophie; Quintana Krupinski, Nadine; Peyron, Odile; Stepanova, Anna; Warnock, Jonathan; Van Helmond, Niels A. G. M.; Passey, Benjamin H.; Rønø Clausen, Ole; Bennike, Ole; Andrén, Elinor; Granoszewski, Wojciech; Andrén, Thomas; Filipsson, Helena L.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Slomp, Caroline P.; Bauersachs, Thorsten

2017-12-01

Sediment records recovered from the Baltic Sea during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 347 provide a unique opportunity to study paleoenvironmental and climate change in central and northern Europe. Such studies contribute to a better understanding of how environmental parameters change in continental shelf seas and enclosed basins. Here we present a multi-proxy-based reconstruction of paleotemperature (both marine and terrestrial), paleosalinity, and paleoecosystem changes from the Little Belt (Site M0059) over the past ˜ 8000 years and evaluate the applicability of inorganic- and organic-based proxies in this particular setting. All salinity proxies (diatoms, aquatic palynomorphs, ostracods, diol index) show that lacustrine conditions occurred in the Little Belt until ˜ 7400 cal yr BP. A connection to the Kattegat at this time can thus be excluded, but a direct connection to the Baltic Proper may have existed. The transition to the brackish-marine conditions of the Littorina Sea stage (more saline and warmer) occurred within ˜ 200 years when the connection to the Kattegat became established after ˜ 7400 cal yr BP. The different salinity proxies used here generally show similar trends in relative changes in salinity, but often do not allow quantitative estimates of salinity. The reconstruction of water temperatures is associated with particularly large uncertainties and variations in absolute values by up to 8 °C for bottom waters and up to 16 °C for surface waters. Concerning the reconstruction of temperature using foraminiferal Mg  /  Ca ratios, contamination by authigenic coatings in the deeper intervals may have led to an overestimation of temperatures. Differences in results based on the lipid paleothermometers (long chain diol index and TEXL86) can partly be explained by the application of modern-day proxy calibrations to intervals that experienced significant changes in depositional settings: in the case of our study, the change from freshwater to marine conditions. Our study shows that particular caution has to be taken when applying and interpreting proxies in coastal environments and marginal seas, where water mass conditions can experience more rapid and larger changes than in open ocean settings. Approaches using a multitude of independent proxies may thus allow a more robust paleoenvironmental assessment.

Proxy decision making and dementia: Using Construal Level Theory to analyse the thoughts of decision makers.

PubMed

Convey, Helen; Holt, Janet; Summers, Barbara

2018-07-01

This study explored the feasibility of using Construal Level Theory to analyse proxy decision maker thinking about a hypothetical ethical dilemma, relating to a person who has dementia. Proxy decision makers make decisions on behalf of individuals who are living with dementia when dementia affects that individual's decision making ability. Ethical dilemmas arise because there is a need to balance the individual's past and contemporary values and views. Understanding of how proxy decision makers respond is incomplete. Construal Level Theory contends that individuals imagine reactions and make predications about the future by crossing psychological distance. This involves abstract thinking, giving meaning to decisions. There is no empirical evidence of Construal Level Theory being used to analyse proxy decision maker thinking. Exploring the feasibility of using Construal Level Theory to understand dementia carer thinking regarding proxy decisions may provide insights which inform the support given. Descriptive qualitative research with semi-structured interviews. Seven participants were interviewed using a hypothetical dementia care scenario in February 2016. Interview transcripts were analysed for themes. Construal Level Theory was applied to analyse participant responses within themes using the Linguistic Category Model. Participants travelled across psychological distance, using abstract thinking to clarify goals and provide a basis for decisions. When thinking concretely participants established boundaries regarding the ethical dilemma. Construal Level Theory gives insight into proxy decision maker thinking and the levels of abstraction used. Understanding what dementia carers think about when making proxy decisions may help nurses to understand their perspectives and to provide appropriate support. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Response of Solar Irradiance to Sunspot-area Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudok de Wit, T.; Kopp, G.; Shapiro, A.; Witzke, V.; Kretzschmar, M.

2018-02-01

One of the important open questions in solar irradiance studies is whether long-term variability (i.e., on timescales of years and beyond) can be reconstructed by means of models that describe short-term variability (i.e., days) using solar proxies as inputs. Preminger & Walton showed that the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and proxies of magnetic-flux emergence, such as the daily sunspot area, can be described in the framework of linear system theory by means of the impulse response. We significantly refine that empirical model by removing spurious solar-rotational effects and by including an additional term that captures long-term variations. Our results show that long-term variability cannot be reconstructed from the short-term response of the spectral irradiance, which questions the extension of solar proxy models to these timescales. In addition, we find that the solar response is nonlinear in a way that cannot be corrected simply by applying a rescaling to a sunspot area.

The Paleoclimate Uncertainty Cascade: Tracking Proxy Errors Via Proxy System Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J.; Dee, S. G.; Evans, M. N.; Adkins, J. F.

2014-12-01

Paleoclimatic observations are, by nature, imperfect recorders of climate variables. Empirical approaches to their calibration are challenged by the presence of multiple sources of uncertainty, which may confound the interpretation of signals and the identifiability of the noise. In this talk, I will demonstrate the utility of proxy system models (PSMs, Evans et al, 2013, 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.024) to quantify the impact of all known sources of uncertainty. PSMs explicitly encode the mechanistic knowledge of the physical, chemical, biological and geological processes from which paleoclimatic observations arise. PSMs may be divided into sensor, archive and observation components, all of which may conspire to obscure climate signals in actual paleo-observations. As an example, we couple a PSM for the δ18O of speleothem calcite to an isotope-enabled climate model (Dee et al, submitted) to analyze the potential of this measurement as a proxy for precipitation amount. A simple soil/karst model (Partin et al, 2013, 10.1130/G34718.1) is used as sensor model, while a hiatus-permitting chronological model (Haslett & Parnell, 2008, 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2008.00623.x) is used as part of the observation model. This subdivision allows us to explicitly model the transformation from precipitation amount to speleothem calcite δ18O as a multi-stage process via a physical and chemical sensor model, and a stochastic archive model. By illustrating the PSM's behavior within the context of the climate simulations, we show how estimates of climate variability may be affected by each submodel's transformation of the signal. By specifying idealized climate signals(periodic vs. episodic, slow vs. fast) to the PSM, we investigate how frequency and amplitude patterns are modulated by sensor and archive submodels. To the extent that the PSM and the climate models are representative of real world processes, then the results may help us more accurately interpret existing paleodata, characterize their uncertainties, and design sampling strategies that exploit their strengths while mitigating their weaknesses.

Estimating population ecology models for the WWW market: evidence of competitive oligopolies.

PubMed

de Cabo, Ruth Mateos; Gimeno, Ricardo

2013-01-01

This paper proposes adapting a particle filtering algorithm to model online Spanish real estate and job search market segments based on the Lotka-Volterra competition equations. For this purpose the authors use data on Internet information searches from Google Trends to proxy for market share. Market share evolution estimations are coherent with those observed in Google Trends. The results show evidence of low website incompatibility in the markets analyzed. Competitive oligopolies are most common in such low-competition markets, instead of the monopolies predicted by theoretical ecology models under strong competition conditions.

Sources of Uncertainty in Modelling mid-Pliocene Arctic Amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, A. M.; Haywood, A.; Howell, F.; Prescott, C.; Pope, J. O.; Hill, D. J.; Voss, J.

2016-12-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) is an interval between 3.264 and 3.205 million years ago, which has globally warmer temperatures (Haywood et al., 2013) accompanied by levels of CO2 above pre-Industrial ( 400 ppmv; e.g. Bartoli et al. 2011; Badger et al., 2013). Arctic amplification of temperatures is a major characteristic of all proxy-based reconstructions of the mPWP in terms of both oceanic (Dowsett et al., 2010) and land warming (Salzmann et al., 2013). For example, evidence of fossilised forests in the Canadian high-Arctic show summer temperatures of up to 16°C warmer than present (Csank et al., 2010). Also, summer temperatures estimates based on pollen reconstructions at Lake El'gygytgyn in North East Russia are up to 6°C warmer than present day (Brigham-Grette et al., 2013). Nevertheless, results from the first phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) suggest that climate models may underestimate the degree of Arctic amplification suggested by proxy records (Haywood et al., 2013). Here we use a large ensemble of experiments performed with the HadCM3 climate model to explore relative sources of uncertainty in the simulations of Arctic amplification. Within this suite of over 150 simulations, we consider; (i) a range of mPWP-specific orbital configurations to quantify the influence of temporal variability, (ii) a range of CO2 scenarios to take into account uncertainties in this particular greenhouse gas forcing, (iii) a perturbed physics ensemble to investigate parametric uncertainty within the HadCM3 climate model, and also (iv) a number of experiments with altered palaeogeographies (including changes to topography and ice sheets) to assess the impact of different boundary condition realisations on our simulation of Arctic amplification. We also incorporate results from the PlioMIP project to allude to the effect of structural uncertainty on Arctic warming. Following methods used in Yoshimori et al. (2013) and Laine et al. (2016), we identify the largest sources of uncertainty over both the land and the ocean in simulating the degree of amplification suggested by available proxy data. We also relate predictions of Arctic amplification to key features within the model, for example, sea ice extent and seasonality.

The dendroclimatic proxies from the northern Quebec taiga in the PAGES 2K network: recent advances and future developments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gennaretti, Fabio; Naulier, Maud; Arseneault, Dominique; Savard, Martine; Bégin, Christian; Boucher, Etienne; Bégin, Yves; Guiot, Joël

2016-04-01

Northeastern North America was historically underrepresented in the network of climate proxies used for climate reconstructions over the last two millennia. Indeed, in North America most high-resolution climate proxies are long tree-ring chronologies but, in Northeastern North America, these chronologies are highly challenging due to short tree longevity, high frequency and severity of wildfires and remoteness of many areas. Here, we will present the efforts accomplished during the last decade by our team in developing millennial-long tree-ring chronologies in the northern Quebec taiga. We sampled black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P] subfossil tree remains naturally fallen in the littoral zone of six lakes to build six site-specific ring-width chronologies as well as two chronologies of stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C in tree-ring cellulose). These chronologies, which are now included in the PAGES 2K network, were independently used to reconstruct summer temperature variations showing a well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly and the impact of volcanic and solar forcings at regional scale. We will also discuss non-climatic influences on these chronologies (i.e. wildfires and sampling height inconsistency), as well as the ongoing effort to extend the reconstructions in time to cover the last 2500 years. Finally, a new European funded project called MAIDEN-SPRUCE will be introduced. Within MAIDEN-SPRUCE, we will use a data-model approach to improve our understanding of the links between forests and climate over the last millennium. More specifically, we will adapt the process-based ecophysiological model MAIDENiso to investigate factors influencing the growth and underlying biogeochemical processes of black spruce. One of our objectives is to provide the first multi-proxy (ring widths and δ18O and δ13C in tree-ring cellulose) regional climate reconstruction in Eastern North America over the last millennium taking into account mechanistic rules, including nonlinear or threshold relationships.

Stable Carbon Isotopes in Treerings; Revisiting the Paleocloud Proxy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagen, M.; Zorita, E.; Dorado Liñán, I.; Loader, N.; McCarroll, D.; Robertson, I.; Young, G.

2017-12-01

The long term relationship between cloud cover and temperature is one of the most important climate feedbacks contributing to determining the value of climate sensitivity. Climate models still reveal a large spread in the simulation of changes in cloud cover under future warming scenarios and clarity might be aided by a picture of the past variability of cloudiness. Stable carbon isotope ratios from tree ring records have been successfully piloted as a palaeocloud proxy in geographical areas traditionally producing strong dendroclimatological reconstructions (high northern latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere) and with some notable successes elsewhere too. An expansion of tree-ring based palaeocloud reconstructions might help to estimate past variations of cloud cover in periods colder or warmer than the 20th century, providing a way to test model test this specific aspect. Calibration with measured instrumental sunshine and cloud data reveals stable carbon isotope ratios from tree rings as an indicator of incoming short wave solar radiation (SWR) in non-moisture stressed sites, but the statistical identification of the SWR signal is hampered by its interannual co-variability with air temperature during the growing season. Here we present a spatio-temporal statistical analysis of a multivariate stable carbon isotope tree ring data set over Europe to assess its usefulness to reconstruct past solar radiation changes. The interannual co-variability of the tree ring records stronger covariation with SWR than with air temperature. The resulting spatial patterns of interannual co-variability are strongly linked to atmospheric circulation in a physically consistent manner. However, the multidecadal variations in the proxy records show a less physically coherent picture. We explore whether atmospheric corrections applied to the proxy series are contributing to differences in the multi decadal signal and investigate whether multidecadal variations in soil moisture perturb the SWR. Preliminary results of strategies to bypass these problems are explored.

Measuring Uptake Coefficients and Henry's Law Constants of Gas-Phase Species with Models for Secondary Organic Aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fairhurst, M. C.; Waring-Kidd, C.; Ezell, M. J.; Finlayson-Pitts, B. J.

2014-12-01

Volatile organic compounds (VOC) are oxidized in the atmosphere and their products contribute to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. These particles have been shown to have effects on visibility, climate, and human health. Current models typically under-predict SOA concentrations from field measurements. Underestimation of these concentrations could be a result of how models treat particle growth. It is often assumed that particles grow via instantaneous thermal equilibrium partitioning between liquid particles and gas-phase species. Recent work has shown that growth may be better represented by irreversible, kinetically limited uptake of gas-phase species onto more viscous, tar-like SOA. However, uptake coefficients for these processes are not known. The goal of this project is to measure uptake coefficients and solubilities for different gases onto models serving as proxies for SOA and determine how they vary based on the chemical composition of the gas and the condensed phase. Experiments were conducted using two approaches: attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy and a flow system coupled to a mass spectrometer. The ATR crystal was coated with the SOA proxy and the gas-phase species introduced via a custom flow system. Uptake of the gas-phase species was characterized by measuring the intensity of characteristic IR bands as a function of time, from which a Henry's law constant and initial estimate of uptake coefficients could be obtained. Uptake coefficients were also measured in a flow system where the walls of the flow tube were coated with the SOA proxy and gas-phase species introduced via a moveable inlet. Uptake coefficients were derived from the decay in gas-phase species measured by mass spectrometry. The results of this work will establish a structure-interaction relationship for uptake of gases into SOA that can be implemented into regional and global models.

Ecological neighborhoods as a framework for umbrella species selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuber, Erica F.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2018-01-01

Umbrella species are typically chosen because they are expected to confer protection for other species assumed to have similar ecological requirements. Despite its popularity and substantial history, the value of the umbrella species concept has come into question because umbrella species chosen using heuristic methods, such as body or home range size, are not acting as adequate proxies for the metrics of interest: species richness or population abundance in a multi-species community for which protection is sought. How species associate with habitat across ecological scales has important implications for understanding population size and species richness, and therefore may be a better proxy for choosing an umbrella species. We determined the spatial scales of ecological neighborhoods important for predicting abundance of 8 potential umbrella species breeding in Nebraska using Bayesian latent indicator scale selection in N-mixture models accounting for imperfect detection. We compare the conservation value measured as collective avian abundance under different umbrella species selected following commonly used criteria and selected based on identifying spatial land cover characteristics within ecological neighborhoods that maximize collective abundance. Using traditional criteria to select an umbrella species resulted in sub-maximal expected collective abundance in 86% of cases compared to selecting an umbrella species based on land cover characteristics that maximized collective abundance directly. We conclude that directly assessing the expected quantitative outcomes, rather than ecological proxies, is likely the most efficient method to maximize the potential for conservation success under the umbrella species concept.

Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, M.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hill, D.J.; Jones, S.M.

2011-01-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland-Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios. ?? 2011.

Mid-Pliocene to Early Pleistocene land and sea surface temperature history of NW Australia based on organic geochemical proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R. A.; Castañeda, I. S.; Henderiks, J.; Christensen, B. A.; De Vleeschouwer, D.; Renema, W.; Groeneveld, J.; Bogus, K.; Gallagher, S. J.; Fulthorpe, C.; Expedition 356 Scientists, I.

2017-12-01

IODP Expedition 356 Site U1463 is located off the coast of NW Australia, and is sensitive to Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) variability. The ITF is a critical ocean gateway that affects global thermohaline circulation, and regulates the movement of water from the Pacific Ocean into the Indian Ocean. However, despite its importance to the global climate system, few SST reconstructions exist for this region that span the Plio-Pleistocene. Here we investigate both the land and sea-surface temperature (SST) history of NW Australia to constrain ITF variability across the Plio-Pleistocene interval. We apply multiple organic geochemical proxies to this site from 3.4-2.6 Ma, which includes the mid-Pliocene warm period, characterized by slightly higher (2-3°C) global temperatures and similar CO2 concentrations to modern values (e.g. Badger et al. 2013; Bartoli et al., 2011; Dowsett et al., 2009; Hönisch et al., 2009; Pagani et al. 2009; Raymo et al., 1996). SST was reconstructed using TEX86, based on isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (iGDGTs), and the long-chain diol index (LDI), based on the ratio of diols produced by marine diatoms (Rampen et al., 2012). The Uk'37 index, based on long-chain ketones, was analyzed but cannot be applied as a SST proxy at this site due to the influence of coastal alkenone producers. Additionally, a continental air temperature record was developed using the MBT'5ME proxy, based on branched GDGTs (De Jonge et al., 2014; Weijers et al., 2007). We find that TEX86, LDI and MBT'5Me exhibit similar trends and show relatively warm and stable temperatures from 3.5-2.4 Ma followed by a gradual cooling of 3-4°C from 2.4-1.5 Ma. This cooling corresponds with an arid interval previously identified on the same core by Christensen et al. (2017). Furthermore, we find that the TEX86 record agrees closely with the LR04 global benthic δ18O stack (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) and captures glacial/interglacial periods including Marine Isotope Stage M2. Our results help to constrain climatic changes across the mid-Pliocene warm period and aim to improve future climate models and elucidate the role of the ITF in driving global climate variability.

Sexual network drivers of HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission

PubMed Central

Omori, Ryosuke; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

2017-01-01

Objectives: HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections are sexually transmitted and propagate in sexual networks. Using mathematical modeling, we aimed to quantify effects of key network statistics on infection transmission, and extent to which HSV-2 prevalence can be a proxy of HIV prevalence. Design/methods: An individual-based simulation model was constructed to describe sex partnering and infection transmission, and was parameterized with representative natural history, transmission, and sexual behavior data. Correlations were assessed on model outcomes (HIV/HSV-2 prevalences) and multiple linear regressions were conducted to estimate adjusted associations and effect sizes. Results: HIV prevalence was one-third or less of HSV-2 prevalence. HIV and HSV-2 prevalences were associated with a Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of 0.64 (95% confidence interval: 0.58–0.69). Collinearities among network statistics were detected, most notably between concurrency versus mean and variance of number of partners. Controlling for confounding, unmarried mean/variance of number of partners (or alternatively concurrency) were the strongest predictors of HIV prevalence. Meanwhile, unmarried/married mean/variance of number of partners (or alternatively concurrency), and clustering coefficient were the strongest predictors of HSV-2 prevalence. HSV-2 prevalence was a strong predictor of HIV prevalence by proxying effects of network statistics. Conclusion: Network statistics produced similar and differential effects on HIV/HSV-2 transmission, and explained most of the variation in HIV and HSV-2 prevalences. HIV prevalence reflected primarily mean and variance of number of partners, but HSV-2 prevalence was affected by a range of network statistics. HSV-2 prevalence (as a proxy) can forecast a population's HIV epidemic potential, thereby informing interventions. PMID:28514276

Invited review: Large-scale indirect measurements for enteric methane emissions in dairy cattle: A review of proxies and their potential for use in management and breeding decisions.

PubMed

Negussie, E; de Haas, Y; Dehareng, F; Dewhurst, R J; Dijkstra, J; Gengler, N; Morgavi, D P; Soyeurt, H; van Gastelen, S; Yan, T; Biscarini, F

2017-04-01

Efforts to reduce the carbon footprint of milk production through selection and management of low-emitting cows require accurate and large-scale measurements of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from individual cows. Several techniques have been developed to measure CH 4 in a research setting but most are not suitable for large-scale recording on farm. Several groups have explored proxies (i.e., indicators or indirect traits) for CH 4 ; ideally these should be accurate, inexpensive, and amenable to being recorded individually on a large scale. This review (1) systematically describes the biological basis of current potential CH 4 proxies for dairy cattle; (2) assesses the accuracy and predictive power of single proxies and determines the added value of combining proxies; (3) provides a critical evaluation of the relative merit of the main proxies in terms of their simplicity, cost, accuracy, invasiveness, and throughput; and (4) discusses their suitability as selection traits. The proxies range from simple and low-cost measurements such as body weight and high-throughput milk mid-infrared spectroscopy (MIR) to more challenging measures such as rumen morphology, rumen metabolites, or microbiome profiling. Proxies based on rumen samples are generally poor to moderately accurate predictors of CH 4 , and are costly and difficult to measure routinely on-farm. Proxies related to body weight or milk yield and composition, on the other hand, are relatively simple, inexpensive, and high throughput, and are easier to implement in practice. In particular, milk MIR, along with covariates such as lactation stage, are a promising option for prediction of CH 4 emission in dairy cows. No single proxy was found to accurately predict CH 4 , and combinations of 2 or more proxies are likely to be a better solution. Combining proxies can increase the accuracy of predictions by 15 to 35%, mainly because different proxies describe independent sources of variation in CH 4 and one proxy can correct for shortcomings in the other(s). The most important applications of CH 4 proxies are in dairy cattle management and breeding for lower environmental impact. When breeding for traits of lower environmental impact, single or multiple proxies can be used as indirect criteria for the breeding objective, but care should be taken to avoid unfavorable correlated responses. Finally, although combinations of proxies appear to provide the most accurate estimates of CH 4 , the greatest limitation today is the lack of robustness in their general applicability. Future efforts should therefore be directed toward developing combinations of proxies that are robust and applicable across diverse production systems and environments. The Authors. Published by the Federation of Animal Science Societies and Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

Arctic Temperature Variability over the last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divine, Dmitry V.; Werner, Johannes P.

2017-04-01

This study presents two new climate field reconstructions (CFR) of Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the last 1000 years. The CFR is based on collection of 60 temperature sensitive proxies north of 60 N mainly from the recently updated Pages2K v 2.0.0 global multiproxy database (Pages2K, 2017) of the Common Era supplemented with some new records not yet included in the Pages 2K archive. Using two subsets of annually dated proxy records sensitive to summer temperatures and those representative of both summer and annual mean SAT, we generated seasonal (summer) and annual SAT CFR for the study region. This study provides a substantial extension to the previous Artic CFR reconstruction by Tingley& Huybers (2013) in terms of both the input proxy data density and duration back in time as well as improved reconstruction technique applied. As a major innovation we used a recently developed extension to the BARCAST method of Tingley&Huybers (2010), BARCAST+AMS (Werner&Tingley, 2015) that provides a means to treat climate archives with dating uncertainties via probabilistic constraining the age-depth models of time-uncertain climate proxies within the hierarchical Bayesian framework. Preliminary analysis of the new reconstructions confirms the recent warming to interrupt the millennial scale general cooling trend. The rate of contemporary circum- Arctic warming of 0.04(0.01) C year-1 since AD 1961 is unprecedented on the time scale of at least past 1000 years. Since AD 1990 the circum-Arctic SAT persistently exceeds the two historical warm extremes of AD 1014-1017 and 1028-1033 associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). A previous well-recorded early 20th century Arctic warming is manifested as event with a magnitude and duration comparable to a number of other anomalies detected in past centuries including the MCA. The new reconstructions provide a prospective framework for further analysis of seasonal regional past climate variability on the range of time-scales. It includes the periods of past rapid changes in the Arctic with a focus on the regional manifestation and time evolution of past major climate extremes. References: Tingley, M. P. and Huybers, P.: Recent temperature extremes at high northern latitudes unprecedented in the past 600 years, Nature, 496, 201-205, 2013. Werner, J. P. and Tingley, M. P.: Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age-depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model, Clim. Past, 11, 533-545, doi:10.5194/cp-11-533-2015, 2015.

Tropical Hydroclimate Change during Heinrich Stadial 1: An Integrative Proxy-Model Synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawman, A. E.; Sun, T.; Shanahan, T. M.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Gomez, K.; Piatrunia, N.; Sun, C.; Wu, X.; Kageyama, M.; Merkel, U.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Lohmann, G.; Singarayer, J. S.

2017-12-01

We explore the response of tropical climate to abrupt cooling of the North Atlantic (NA) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) combining paleoclimate proxies with model simulations. A total of 146 published paleoclimate records from tropical locations are used to categorize whether HS1 was wetter, drier, or unchanged relative to a deglacial baseline state. Only records with sufficient resolution to resolve HS1 and sufficient length to characterize the deglacial trend are considered. This synthesis reveals large-scale patterns of hydroclimate change relative to glacial conditions, confirming previously reported weaker Indian summer monsoon, a wetter southern Africa, and drying over the Caribbean. Our synthesis also reveals large-scale drying over the Maritime continent as well as wetter conditions in northern Australia and southern tropical South America. Our reinterpretation of the available proxy data reveals far more complexity and uncertainties for equatorial East Africa, a region that appears to straddle a pattern of dryer conditions to the north and wetter conditions to the south. Overall, these patterns of hydroclimate change depart from a southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), particularly outside the tropical Atlantic. We explore mechanisms driving these changes using a multi-model ensemble of "hosing" simulations performed relative to glacial conditions. The models show robust weakening of the Afro-Asian Monsoon, which we attribute to ventilation of colder mid-latitude air. Not all models simulate the remaining patterns inferred from the proxy data. The best-agreeing models indicate that cooling over the tropical NA and the Caribbean may be essential to communicate the response to the global tropics. This response can induce warming over the tropical South Atlantic via the wind-evaporation-SST feedback, driving wetter conditions in South Africa and tropical South America. Cooling over the Caribbean is communicated to the Pacific over the Central American isthmus resulting in an El Niño-like pattern accompanied by drying over the Maritime Continent - as seen in the proxy data. Together these results show a dominant role for altered tropical SST gradients driving changes in tropical rainfall, and a lesser role for inter-hemispheric shifts in the ITCZ.

Cryptanalysis of an inter-bank E-payment protocol based on quantum proxy blind signature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Xiao-Qiu; Wei, Chun-Yan

2013-04-01

We analyze the security of an inter-bank E-payment protocol based on quantum proxy blind signature, and find that there is a security leak in the quantum channels of this protocol, which gives a chance for an outside opponent to launch a special denial-of-service attack. Furthermore, we show that the dishonest merchant can succeed to change the purchase information of the customer in this protocol.

An Improved Quantum Proxy Blind Signature Scheme Based on Genuine Seven-Qubit Entangled State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yuan-Yuan; Xie, Shu-Cui; Zhang, Jian-Zhong

2017-07-01

An improved quantum proxy blind signature scheme based on controlled teleportation is proposed in this paper. Genuine seven-qubit entangled state functions as quantum channel. We use the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement delegation, signature and verification. Security analysis shows that our scheme is unforgeability, undeniability, blind and unconditionally secure. Meanwhile, we propose a trust party to provide higher security, the trust party is costless.

Adaptive proxy map server for efficient vector spatial data rendering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayar, Ahmet

2013-01-01

The rapid transmission of vector map data over the Internet is becoming a bottleneck of spatial data delivery and visualization in web-based environment because of increasing data amount and limited network bandwidth. In order to improve both the transmission and rendering performances of vector spatial data over the Internet, we propose a proxy map server enabling parallel vector data fetching as well as caching to improve the performance of web-based map servers in a dynamic environment. Proxy map server is placed seamlessly anywhere between the client and the final services, intercepting users' requests. It employs an efficient parallelization technique based on spatial proximity and data density in case distributed replica exists for the same spatial data. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is proved at the end of the article by the application of creating map images enriched with earthquake seismic data records.

Modeling cognitive reserve in healthy middle-aged and older adults: the Tasmanian Healthy Brain Project.

PubMed

Ward, David D; Summers, Mathew J; Saunders, Nichole L; Vickers, James C

2015-04-01

Cognitive reserve (CR) is a protective factor that supports cognition by increasing the resilience of an individual's cognitive function to the deleterious effects of cerebral lesions. A single environmental proxy indicator is often used to estimate CR (e.g. education), possibly resulting in a loss of the accuracy and predictive power of the investigation. Furthermore, while estimates of an individual's prior CR can be made, no operational measure exists to estimate dynamic change in CR resulting from exposure to new life experiences. We aimed to develop two latent measures of CR through factor analysis: prior and current, in a sample of 467 healthy older adults. The prior CR measure combined proxy measures traditionally associated with CR, while the current CR measure combined variables that had the potential to reflect dynamic change in CR due to new life experiences. Our main finding was that the analyses uncovered latent variables in hypothesized prior and current models of CR. The prior CR model supports multivariate estimation of pre-existing CR and may be applied to more accurately estimate CR in the absence of neuropathological data. The current CR model may be applied to evaluate and explore the potential benefits of CR-based interventions prior to dementia onset.

Solar activity simulation and forecast with a flux-transport dynamo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macario-Rojas, Alejandro; Smith, Katharine L.; Roberts, Peter C. E.

2018-06-01

We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy for solar activity prediction. Extended research using this proxy has been impeded by reduced observational data record only available from 1976. However, there is a recognised need for a solar dynamo model with ample verification over various activity scenarios to improve theoretical standards. The present study aims to explore the use of helioseismology data and reconstructed solar polar magnetic field, to foster the development of robust solar activity forecasts. The research is based on observationally inferred differential rotation morphology, as well as observed and reconstructed polar field using artificial neural network methods via the hemispheric sunspot areas record. Results show consistent reproduction of historical solar activity trends with enhanced results by introducing a precursor rise time coefficient. A weak solar cycle 25, with slow rise time and maximum activity -14.4% (±19.5%) with respect to the current cycle 24 is predicted.

Stalkers and harassers of British royalty: an exploration of proxy behaviours for violence.

PubMed

James, David V; Mullen, Paul E; Meloy, J Reid; Pathé, Michele T; Preston, Lulu; Darnley, Brian; Farnham, Frank R; Scalora, Mario J

2011-01-01

Study of risk factors for violence to prominent people is difficult because of low base rates. This study of harassers of the royal family examined factors suggested in the literature as proxies for violence--breaching security barriers, achieving proximity, approach with a weapon, and approach with homicidal ideation. A stratified sample of different types of approach behaviour was randomly extracted from 2,332 Royalty Protection Police files, which had been divided into behavioural types. The final sample size was 275. Significant differences in illness symptomatology and motivation were found for each proxy group. Querulants were significantly over-represented in three of the four groups. There was generally little overlap between the proxy groups. There is no evidence of the proxy items examined being part of a "pathway to violence". Different motivations may be associated with different patterns of risk. Risk assessment must incorporate knowledge of the interactions between motivation, mental state, and behaviour. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparing children's GPS tracks with geospatial proxies for exposure to junk food.

PubMed

Sadler, Richard C; Gilliland, Jason A

2015-01-01

Various geospatial techniques have been employed to estimate children's exposure to environmental cardiometabolic risk factors, including junk food. But many studies uncritically rely on exposure proxies which differ greatly from actual exposure. Misrepresentation of exposure by researchers could lead to poor decisions and ineffective policymaking. This study conducts a GIS-based analysis of GPS tracks--'activity spaces'--and 21 proxies for activity spaces (e.g. buffers, container approaches) for a sample of 526 children (ages 9-14) in London, Ontario, Canada. These measures are combined with a validated food environment database (including fast food and convenience stores) to create a series of junk food exposure estimates and quantify the errors resulting from use of different proxy methods. Results indicate that exposure proxies consistently underestimate exposure to junk foods by as much as 68%. This underestimation is important to policy development because children are exposed to more junk food than estimated using typical methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spadoni, D. J.

1983-01-01

The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

Changing climate in a pre-impact world: a multi-proxy paleotemperature reconstruction across the last million years of the Cretaceous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woelders, L.; Vellekoop, J.; Reichart, G. J.; de Nooijer, L. J.; Sluijs, A.; Peterse, F.; Claeys, P. F.; Speijer, R. P.

2015-12-01

Climate instability during the last million years of the Cretaceous (67-66 Ma) is still poorly documented and not well understood. One of the reasons for this is that in deep time, different proxies are likely to yield different temperatures. This is because the application of calibrations based on present day temperature proxy relationships is affected by source organism evolution, differences in ocean chemistry and non-analogue processes. Only by combining temperature estimates derived from different, independent proxies, the problems with individual proxies can be cancelled out. A quantitative, multi-proxy temperature record from the latest Cretaceous therefore may provide a better insight in climate changes across this time interval. For such a multi-proxy research, sediments are required that yield both well-preserved foraminiferal calcite as well as organic biomarkers. Very few sites are known to provide such sedimentary records, but ODP Leg 174AX Site Bass River (New Jersey Shelf) has proven to be an excellent archive for paleotemperature reconstructions for the Cretaceous and Paleogene. We here present a multi-proxy, quantitative paleotemperature reconstruction of the last million years of the Cretaceous of the Bass River core. Benthic and planktic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and δ18O were determined, as well as the organic geochemical sea surface temperature proxy TEX86. This resulted in a unique coupled surface and bottom water temperature record of the latest Cretaceous. Our data suggest a ~2-6 ˚C bottom water warming and a ~4-6 ˚C surface water warming approximately 300 kyr before the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, followed by a cooling trend across the boundary. This warming event appears to coincide with the main phase of the Deccan Traps eruptions and therefore probably represents a global event.

Welfare to Work: Does Vocational Education and Training Make a Difference? Occasional Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karmel, Tom; Mark, Kevin; Nguyen, Nhi

2009-01-01

The purpose of this paper looks at the fundamental issue of whether VET does improve the employment prospects of the groups in question. It exploits data from the Student Outcome Survey to construct samples that proxy three welfare groups and models the post-training employment outcomes. Appendices include: (1) Characteristics of the proxy groups;…

Tracking ENSO with tropical trees: Progress in stable isotope dendroclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, M. N.; Poussart, P. F.; Saleska, S. R.; Schrag, D. P.

2002-12-01

The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing proxy network used to characterize past ENSO behavior. Here we describe a strategy for development of proxy estimates of paleo-ENSO, via proxy rainfall estimates derived from stable isotope (δ18O) measurements made on tropical trees. The approach applies a new model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brand, 1996) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. The promise and pitfalls of the approach are illustrated in pilot datasets from the US, Costa Rica, Brazil, and Peru, which show isotopic cycles of 4-6 per mil, and interannual anomalies of up to 8 per mil. Together with the mature ENSO proxies (corals, extratropical tree-rings, varved sediments, and ice cores), replicated and well-dated stable isotope chronologies from tropical trees may eventually improve our understanding of ENSO history over the past several hundred years.

Biomarker-based reconstruction of late Holocene sea-ice variability: East versus West Greenland continental shelf.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolling, H. M.; Stein, R. H.; Fahl, K.

2016-12-01

Sea is a critical component of the climate system and its role is not yet fully understood e.g. the recent rapid decrease in sea ice is not clearly reflected in climate models. This illustrates the need for high-resolution proxy-based sea-ice reconstructions going beyond the time scale of direct measurements in order to understand the processes controlling present and past natural variability of sea ice on short time scales. Here we present the first comparison of two high-resolution biomarker records from the East and West Greenland Shelf for the late Holocene. Both areas are highly sensitive to sea-ice changes as they are influenced by the East Greenland Current, the main exporter of Arctic freshwater and sea ice. On the East Greenland Shelf, we do not find any clear evidence for a long-term increase of sea ice during the late Holocene Neoglacial. This sea-ice record seems to be more sensitive to short-term climate events, such as the Roman Warm Period, the Dark Ages, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. In contrary, the West Greenland Shelf record shows a strong and gradual increase in sea ice concentration and a reduction in marine productivity markers starting near 1.6 ka. In general, the increase in sea ice seems to follow the decreasing solar insolation trend. Short-term events are not as clearly pronounced as on the East Greenland Shelf. A comparison to recently published foraminiferal records from the same cores (Perner et al., 2011, 2015) illuminates the differences of biomarker and micropaleontoligical proxies. It seems that the general trend is reflected in both proxies but the signal of small-scale events is preserved rather differently, pointing towards different environmental requirements of the species behind both proxies. References: Perner, K., et al., 2011. Quat. Sci. Revs. 30, 2815-2826 Perner, K., et al., 2015. Quat. Sci. Revs. 129, 296-307

Detecting oscillatory patterns and time lags from proxy records with non-uniform sampling: Some pitfalls and possible solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, Reik

2013-04-01

Time series analysis offers a rich toolbox for deciphering information from high-resolution geological and geomorphological archives and linking the thus obtained results to distinct climate and environmental processes. Specifically, on various time-scales from inter-annual to multi-millenial, underlying driving forces exhibit more or less periodic oscillations, the detection of which in proxy records often allows linking them to specific mechanisms by which the corresponding drivers may have affected the archive under study. A persistent problem in geomorphology is that available records do not present a clear signal of the variability of environmental conditions, but exhibit considerable uncertainties of both the measured proxy variables and the associated age model. Particularly, time-scale uncertainty as well as the heterogeneity of sampling in the time domain are source of severe conceptual problems that may lead to false conclusions about the presence or absence of oscillatory patterns and their mutual phasing in different archives. In my presentation, I will discuss how one can cope with non-uniformly sampled proxy records to detect and quantify oscillatory patterns in one or more data sets. For this purpose, correlation analysis is reformulated using kernel estimates which are found superior to classical estimators based on interpolation or Fourier transform techniques. In order to characterize non-stationary or noisy periodicities and their relative phasing between different records, an extension of continuous wavelet transform is utilized. The performance of both methods is illustrated for different case studies. An extension to explicitly considering time-scale uncertainties by means of Bayesian techniques is briefly outlined.

Isotopic composition of ice core air reveals abrupt Antarctic warming during and after Heinrich Event 1a

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, J. D.; Bereiter, B.; Baggenstos, D.; Kawamura, K.; Shackleton, S. A.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2017-12-01

Antarctic temperature variations during Heinrich events, as recorded by δ18O­ice­, generally show more gradual changes than the abrupt warmings seen in Greenland ice. However, quantitative temperature interpretation of the water isotope temperature proxy is difficult as the relationship between δ18Oice and temperature is not constant through time. Fortunately, ice cores offer a second temperature proxy based on trapped gases. During times of surface warming, thermal fractionation of gases in the column of unconsolidated snow (firn) on top of the ice sheet results in isotopically heavier nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar) being trapped in the ice core bubbles. During times of surface cooling, isotopically lighter gases are trapped. Measurements of δ15N and δ40Ar can therefore be used, in combination with a model for the height of the column of firn, to quantitatively reconstruct surface temperatures. In the WAIS Divide Ice Core, the two temperature proxies show a brief disagreement during Heinrich Stadial 1. Despite δ18Oice recording relatively constant temperature, the nitrogen and argon isotopes imply an abrupt warming between 16 and 15.8 kyr BP, manifest as an abrupt 1.25oC increase in the firn temperature gradient. To our knowledge, this would be the first evidence that such abrupt climate change has been recorded in an Antarctic climate proxy. If confirmed by more detailed studies, this event may represent warming due to an extreme southward shift of the Earth's thermal equator (and the southern hemisphere westerly wind belt), caused by the 16.1 ka Heinrich Event.

Hydrological and associated biogeochemical consequences of rapid global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmichael, Matthew J.; Inglis, Gordon N.; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Naafs, B. David A.; Behrooz, Leila; Remmelzwaal, Serginio; Monteiro, Fanny M.; Rohrssen, Megan; Farnsworth, Alexander; Buss, Heather L.; Dickson, Alexander J.; Valdes, Paul J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pancost, Richard D.

2017-10-01

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) hyperthermal, 56 million years ago (Ma), is the most dramatic example of abrupt Cenozoic global warming. During the PETM surface temperatures increased between 5 and 9 °C and the onset likely took < 20 kyr. The PETM provides a case study of the impacts of rapid global warming on the Earth system, including both hydrological and associated biogeochemical feedbacks, and proxy data from the PETM can provide constraints on changes in warm climate hydrology simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). In this paper, we provide a critical review of biological and geochemical signatures interpreted as direct or indirect indicators of hydrological change at the PETM, explore the importance of adopting multi-proxy approaches, and present a preliminary model-data comparison. Hydrological records complement those of temperature and indicate that the climatic response at the PETM was complex, with significant regional and temporal variability. This is further illustrated by the biogeochemical consequences of inferred changes in hydrology and, in fact, changes in precipitation and the biogeochemical consequences are often conflated in geochemical signatures. There is also strong evidence in many regions for changes in the episodic and/or intra-annual distribution of precipitation that has not widely been considered when comparing proxy data to GCM output. Crucially, GCM simulations indicate that the response of the hydrological cycle to the PETM was heterogeneous - some regions are associated with increased precipitation - evaporation (P - E), whilst others are characterised by a decrease. Interestingly, the majority of proxy data come from the regions where GCMs predict an increase in PETM precipitation. We propose that comparison of hydrological proxies to GCM output can be an important test of model skill, but this will be enhanced by further data from regions of model-simulated aridity and simulation of extreme precipitation events.

Estimating labile particulate iron concentrations in coastal waters from remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGaraghan, Anna R.; Kudela, Raphael M.

2012-02-01

Owing to the difficulties inherent in measuring trace metals and the importance of iron as a limiting nutrient for biological systems, the ability to monitor particulate iron concentration remotely is desirable. This study examines the relationship between labile particulate iron, described here as weak acid leachable particulate iron or total dissolvable iron, and easily obtained bio-optical measurements. We develop a bio-optical proxy that can be used to estimate large-scale patterns of labile iron concentrations in surface waters, and we extend this by including other environmental variables in a multiple linear regression statistical model. By utilizing a ratio of optical backscatter and fluorescence obtained by satellite, we identify patterns in iron concentrations confirmed by traditional shipboard sampling. This basic relationship is improved with the addition of other environmental parameters in the statistical linear regression model. The optical proxy detects known temporal and spatial trends in average surface iron concentrations in Monterey Bay. The proxy is robust in that similar performance was obtained using two independent particulate iron data sets, but it exhibits weaker correlations than the full statistical model. This proxy will be a valuable tool for oceanographers seeking to monitor iron concentrations in coastal regions and allows for better understanding of the variability of labile particulate iron in surface waters to complement direct measurement of leachable particulate or total dissolvable iron.

Weather and extremes in the last Millennium - a challenge for climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raible, Christoph C.; Blumer, Sandro R.; Gomez-Navarro, Juan J.; Lehner, Flavio

2015-04-01

Changes in the climate mean state are expected to influence society, but the socio-economic sensitivity to extreme events might be even more severe. Whether or not the current frequency and severity of extreme events is a unique characteristic of anthropogenic-driven climate change can be assessed by putting the observed changes in a long-term perspective. In doing so, early instrumental series and proxy archives are a rich source to investigate also extreme events, in particular during the last millennium, yet they suffer from spatial and temporal scarcity. Therefore, simulations with coupled general circulation models (GCMs) could fill such gaps and help in deepening our process understanding. In this study, an overview of past and current efforts as well as challenges in modelling paleo weather and extreme events is presented. Using simulations of the last millennium we investigate extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, and their connection to large-scale atmospheric patterns in the North Atlantic European region. In cold climate states such as the Maunder Minimum, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is found to be predominantly in its negative phase. In this sense, simulations of different models agree with proxy findings for this period. However, some proxy data available for this period suggests an increase in storminess during this period, which could be interpreted as a positive phase of the NAO - a superficial contradiction. The simulated cyclones are partly reduced over Europe, which is consistent with the aforementioned negative phase of the NAO. However, as the meridional temperature gradient is increased during this period - which constitutes a source of low-level baroclincity - they also intensify. This example illustrates how model simulations could be used to improve our proxy interpretation and to gain additional process understanding. Nevertheless, there are also limitations associated with climate modeling efforts to simulate the last millennium. In particular, these models still struggle to properly simulate atmospheric blocking events, an important dynamical feature for dry conditions during summer times. Finally, new and promising ways in improving past climate modelling are briefly introduced. In particular, the use of dynamical downscaling is a powerful tool to bridge the gap between the coarsely resolved GCMs and characteristics of the regional climate, which is potentially recorded in proxy archives. In particular, the representation of extreme events could be improved by dynamical downscaling as processes are better resolved than GCMs.

Hydrodynamic Influences on Multiproxy-based Paleoclimate Reconstructions from Marine Sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausin Gonzalez, B.; Magill, C.; Wenk, P.; Haugh, G.; McIntyre, C.; Haghipour, N.; Hodell, D. A.; Eglinton, T. I.

2017-12-01

Multiproxy approaches, including those based on the abundance and composition of sedimentary organic matter at both the bulk (total organic carbon; TOC) and molecular (e.g., alkenone-derived Uk'37) level, are increasingly applied in investigations of past climate variability. Constraining of short-term and abrupt climate changes requires the establishment of accurate chronostratigraphies. For the last glacial to the present, a single age-depth model is typically constructed from radiocarbon ages of planktonic foraminifera and then applied to all proxy records derived from the same sediment core. Here, we develop independent, high-resolution 14C chronologies for planktonic foraminifera, TOC, and alkenones for a sediment core retrieved from the so-called "Shackleton sites" in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. We observe 14C age offsets between these sedimentary components of up to several thousand years within the same sediment layer, with TOC and alkenones exhibiting older ages than corresponding foraminiferal carbonate. This asynchroneity suggests that application of planktic foraminifera-based chronostratigraphies to other proxy carriers (e.g., TOC and alkenones) may lead to spurious interpretation of sedimentary records. In order to further explore the influence of lateral transport processes on organic matter signatures and ages, we performed down-core, grain size-specific OC 14C analyses on selected sediment horizons. Results indicate strong interdependence between 14C age of OC and sediment grain size, underlying strong hydrodynamic controls on OC age. Furthermore, the magnitude of these temporal offsets varies over time in concert with changes in the strength of the Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW), implying that OC [proxy] signatures are influenced by non-local inputs. Such influences co-vary with ocean and climate changes, such as Heinrinch Event 1, the Younger Dryas, and those corresponding to deposition of Sapropel 1 in the Mediterranean Sea (ca. 8 ka BP). Our findings suggest an interplay between past climate and ocean change, hydrodynamic forcing, and the (a)synchroneity of multiproxy records, and highlight the importance of developing independent, proxy-specific chronostratigraphies to accurately decipher past millennial- and centennial-scale climate variability.

The Use of Proxy Caches for File Access in a Multi-Tier Grid Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brun, R.; Duellmann, D.; Ganis, G.; Hanushevsky, A.; Janyst, L.; Peters, A. J.; Rademakers, F.; Sindrilaru, E.

2011-12-01

The use of proxy caches has been extensively studied in the HEP environment for efficient access of database data and showed significant performance with only very moderate operational effort at higher grid tiers (T2, T3). In this contribution we propose to apply the same concept to the area of file access and analyse the possible performance gains, operational impact on site services and applicability to different HEP use cases. Base on a proof-of-concept studies with a modified XROOT proxy server we review the cache efficiency and overheads for access patterns of typical ROOT based analysis programs. We conclude with a discussion of the potential role of this new component at the different tiers of a distributed computing grid.

The Use of Proxy Caches for File Access in a Multi-Tier Grid Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brun, R.; Dullmann, D.; Ganis, G.

2012-04-19

The use of proxy caches has been extensively studied in the HEP environment for efficient access of database data and showed significant performance with only very moderate operational effort at higher grid tiers (T2, T3). In this contribution we propose to apply the same concept to the area of file access and analyze the possible performance gains, operational impact on site services and applicability to different HEP use cases. Base on a proof-of-concept studies with a modified XROOT proxy server we review the cache efficiency and overheads for access patterns of typical ROOT based analysis programs. We conclude with amore » discussion of the potential role of this new component at the different tiers of a distributed computing grid.« less

Evaluation of Organic Proxies for Quantifying Past Primary Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raja, M.; Rosell-Melé, A.; Galbraith, E.

2017-12-01

Ocean primary productivity is a key element of the marine carbon cycle. However, its quantitative reconstruction in the past relies on the use of biogeochemical models as the available proxy approaches are qualitative at best. Here, we present an approach that evaluates the use of phytoplanktonic biomarkers (i.e. chlorins and alkenones) as quantitative proxies to reconstruct past changes in marine productivity. We compare biomarkers contents in a global suite of core-top sediments to sea-surface chlorophyll-a abundance estimated by satellites over the last 20 years, and the results are compared to total organic carbon (TOC). We also assess satellite data and detect satellite limitations and biases due to the complexity of optical properties and the actual defined algorithms. Our findings show that sedimentary chlorins can be used to track total sea-surface chlorophyll-a abundance as an indicator for past primary productivity. However, degradation processes restrict the application of this proxy to concentrations below a threshold value (1µg/g). Below this threshold, chlorins are a useful tool to identify reducing conditions when used as part of a multiproxy approach to assess redox sedimentary conditions (e.g. using Re, U). This is based on the link between anoxic/disoxic conditions and the flux of organic matter from the sea-surface to the sediments. We also show that TOC is less accurate than chlorins for estimating sea-surface chlorophyll-a due to the contribution of terrigenous organic matter, and the different degradation pathways of all organic compounds that TOC includes. Alkenones concentration also relates to primary productivity, but they are constrained by different processes in different regions. In conclusion, as lons as specific constraints are taken into account, our study evaluates the use of chlorins and alkenones as quantitative proxies of past primary productivity, with more accuracy than by using TOC.

Constructing Proxy Variables to Measure Adult Learners' Time Management Strategies in LMS

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jo, Il-Hyun; Kim, Dongho; Yoon, Meehyun

2015-01-01

This study describes the process of constructing proxy variables from recorded log data within a Learning Management System (LMS), which represents adult learners' time management strategies in an online course. Based on previous research, three variables of total login time, login frequency, and regularity of login interval were selected as…

ASC Tri-lab Co-design Level 2 Milestone Report 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hornung, Rich; Jones, Holger; Keasler, Jeff

2015-09-23

In 2015, the three Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories that make up the Advanced Sci- enti c Computing (ASC) Program (Sandia, Lawrence Livermore, and Los Alamos) collaboratively explored performance portability programming environments in the context of several ASC co-design proxy applica- tions as part of a tri-lab L2 milestone executed by the co-design teams at each laboratory. The programming environments that were studied included Kokkos (developed at Sandia), RAJA (LLNL), and Legion (Stan- ford University). The proxy apps studied included: miniAero, LULESH, CoMD, Kripke, and SNAP. These programming models and proxy-apps are described herein. Each lab focused on amore » particular combination of abstractions and proxy apps, with the goal of assessing performance portability using those. Performance portability was determined by: a) the ability to run a single application source code on multiple advanced architectures, b) comparing runtime performance between \

From Urey To The Ocean's Glacial Ph: News From The Boron-11 Paleo-acidimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeebe, R. E.; Wolf-Gladrow, D. A.; Bijma, J.

Boron paleo-acidimetry is based on the stable boron isotope composition of foraminiferal shells which has been shown to be a function of seawater pH. It is cur- rently one of the most promising paleo-carbonate chemistry proxies. One important parameter of the proxy is the equilibrium fractionation between the dissolved boron species B(OH)3 and B(OH)- which was calculated to be 19 per mil at 25C by Kak- 4 ihana and Kotaka (1977), based on Urey's theory. The calculated equilibrium frac- tionation, however, depends on the vibrational frequencies of the molecules for which different values have been reported in the literature. We have recalculated the equilib- rium fractionation and find that it may be distinctly different from 19 per mil (this is the bad news). The good news is that - theoretically - the use of 11B as a paleo-pH indicator is not compromised through vital effects in planktonic foraminifera. We de- rive this conclusion by the use of a diffusion-reaction model that calculates pH profiles and 11B values in the vicinity of a foraminifer.

A quantum proxy group signature scheme based on an entangled five-qubit state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Meiling; Ma, Wenping; Wang, Lili; Yin, Xunru

2015-09-01

A quantum proxy group signature (QPGS) scheme based on controlled teleportation is presented, by using the entangled five-qubit quantum state functions as quantum channel. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement delegation, signature and verification. The security of the scheme is guaranteed by the entanglement correlations of the entangled five-qubit state, the secret keys based on the quantum key distribution (QKD) and the one-time pad algorithm, all of which have been proven to be unconditionally secure and the signature anonymity.

A Quantum Proxy Signature Scheme Based on Genuine Five-qubit Entangled State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Hai-Jing; Huang, Jun; Yu, Yao-Feng; Jiang, Xiu-Li

2014-09-01

In this paper a very efficient and secure proxy signature scheme is proposed. It is based on controlled quantum teleportation. Genuine five-qubit entangled state functions as quantum channel. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement delegation, signature and verification. Quantum key distribution and one-time pad are adopted in our scheme, which could guarantee not only the unconditional security of the scheme but also the anonymity of the messages owner.

Assessing paleo-biodiversity using low proxy influx.

PubMed

Blarquez, Olivier; Finsinger, Walter; Carcaillet, Christopher

2013-01-01

We developed an algorithm to improve richness assessment based on paleoecological series, considering sample features such as their temporal resolutions or their volumes. Our new method can be applied to both high- and low-count size proxies, i.e. pollen and plant macroremain records, respectively. While pollen generally abounds in sediments, plant macroremains are generally rare, thus leading to difficulties to compute paleo-biodiversity indices. Our approach uses resampled macroremain influxes that enable the computation of the rarefaction index for the low influx records. The raw counts are resampled to a constant resolution and sample volume by interpolating initial sample ages at a constant time interval using the age∼depth model. Then, the contribution of initial counts and volume to each interpolated sample is determined by calculating a proportion matrix that is in turn used to obtain regularly spaced time series of pollen and macroremain influx. We applied this algorithm to sedimentary data from a subalpine lake situated in the European Alps. The reconstructed total floristic richness at the study site increased gradually when both pollen and macroremain records indicated a decrease in relative abundances of shrubs and an increase in trees from 11,000 to 7,000 cal BP. This points to an ecosystem change that favored trees against shrubs, whereas herb abundance remained stable. Since 6,000 cal BP, local richness decreased based on plant macroremains, while pollen-based richness was stable. The reconstructed richness and evenness are interrelated confirming the difficulty to distinguish these two aspects for the studies in paleo-biodiversity. The present study shows that low-influx bio-proxy records (here macroremains) can be used to reconstruct stand diversity and address ecological issues. These developments on macroremain and pollen records may contribute to bridge the gap between paleoecology and biodiversity studies.

A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carmichael, Matthew J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Heinemann, Malte; Kiehl, Jeffrey; LeGrande, Allegra; Loptson, Claire A.; Roberts, Chris D.; Sagoo, Navjit; Shields, Christine

2016-01-01

A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Quantification of a greenhouse hydrologic cycle from equatorial to polar latitudes: The mid-Cretaceous water bearer revisited

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suarez, M.B.; Gonzalez, Luis A.; Ludvigson, Greg A.

2011-01-01

This study aims to investigate the global hydrologic cycle during the mid-Cretaceous greenhouse by utilizing the oxygen isotopic composition of pedogenic carbonates (calcite and siderite) as proxies for the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation. The data set builds on the Aptian-Albian sphaerosiderite ??18O data set presented by Ufnar et al. (2002) by incorporating additional low latitude data including pedogenic and early meteoric diagenetic calcite ??18O. Ufnar et al. (2002) used the proxy data derived from the North American Cretaceous Western Interior Basin (KWIB) in a mass balance model to estimate precipitation-evaporation fluxes. We have revised this mass balance model to handle sphaerosiderite and calcite proxies, and to account for longitudinal travel by tropical air masses. We use empirical and general circulation model (GCM) temperature gradients for the mid-Cretaceous, and the empirically derived ??18O composition of groundwater as constraints in our mass balance model. Precipitation flux, evaporation flux, relative humidity, seawater composition, and continental feedback are adjusted to generate model calculated groundwater ??18O compositions (proxy for precipitation ??18O) that match the empirically-derived groundwater ??18O compositions to within ??0.5???. The model is calibrated against modern precipitation data sets.Four different Cretaceous temperature estimates were used: the leaf physiognomy estimates of Wolfe and Upchurch (1987) and Spicer and Corfield (1992), the coolest and warmest Cretaceous estimates compiled by Barron (1983) and model outputs from the GENESIS-MOM GCM by Zhou et al. (2008). Precipitation and evaporation fluxes for all the Cretaceous temperature gradients utilized in the model are greater than modern precipitation and evaporation fluxes. Balancing the model also requires relative humidity in the subtropical dry belt to be significantly reduced. As expected calculated precipitation rates are all greater than modern precipitation rates. Calculated global average precipitation rates range from 371mm/year to 1196mm/year greater than modern precipitation rates. Model results support the hypothesis that increased rainout produces ??18O-depleted precipitation.Sensitivity testing of the model indicates that the amount of water vapor in the air mass, and its origin and pathway, significantly affect the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation. Precipitation ??18O is also sensitive to seawater ??18O and enriched tropical seawater was necessary to simulate proxy data (consistent with fossil and geologic evidence for a warmer and evaporatively enriched Tethys). Improved constraints in variables such as seawater ??18O can help improve boundary conditions for mid-Cretaceous climate simulations. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Modeling Sea-Level Change using Errors-in-Variables Integrated Gaussian Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

2014-05-01

We perform Bayesian inference on historical and late Holocene (last 2000 years) rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to our model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. To accurately estimate rates of sea-level change and reliably compare tide-gauge compilations with proxy reconstructions it is necessary to account for the uncertainties that characterize each dataset. Many previous studies used simple linear regression models (most commonly polynomial regression) resulting in overly precise rate estimates. The model we propose uses an integrated Gaussian process approach, where a Gaussian process prior is placed on the rate of sea-level change and the data itself is modeled as the integral of this rate process. The non-parametric Gaussian process model is known to be well suited to modeling time series data. The advantage of using an integrated Gaussian process is that it allows for the direct estimation of the derivative of a one dimensional curve. The derivative at a particular time point will be representative of the rate of sea level change at that time point. The tide gauge and proxy data are complicated by multiple sources of uncertainty, some of which arise as part of the data collection exercise. Most notably, the proxy reconstructions include temporal uncertainty from dating of the sediment core using techniques such as radiocarbon. As a result of this, the integrated Gaussian process model is set in an errors-in-variables (EIV) framework so as to take account of this temporal uncertainty. The data must be corrected for land-level change known as glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) as it is important to isolate the climate-related sea-level signal. The correction for GIA introduces covariance between individual age and sea level observations into the model. The proposed integrated Gaussian process model allows for the estimation of instantaneous rates of sea-level change and accounts for all available sources of uncertainty in tide-gauge and proxy-reconstruction data. Our response variable is sea level after correction for GIA. By embedding the integrated process in an errors-in-variables (EIV) framework, and removing the estimate of GIA, we can quantify rates with better estimates of uncertainty than previously possible. The model provides a flexible fit and enables us to estimate rates of change at any given time point, thus observing how rates have been evolving from the past to present day.

Correlations between microbial tetraether lipids and environmental variables in Chinese soils: Optimizing the paleo-reconstructions in semi-arid and arid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Huan; Pancost, Richard D.; Dang, Xinyue; Zhou, Xinying; Evershed, Richard P.; Xiao, Guoqiao; Tang, Changyan; Gao, Li; Guo, Zhengtang; Xie, Shucheng

2014-02-01

The bacterial membrane lipid-based continental paleothermometer, the MBT/CBT or MBT‧-CBT proxy (methylation index of branched tetraethers/cyclization of branched tetraethers), results in a large temperature deviation when applied in semiarid and arid regions. Here we propose new calibration models based on the investigation of >100 surface soils across a large climatic gradient, with a particular focus on semiarid and arid regions of China, and apply them to a loess-paleosol sequence. As reported elsewhere, MBT values exhibit a much higher correlation with MAAT than with summer temperature, suggesting a minimal seasonality bias; however, MBT is apparently insensitive to temperature <5 °C or >20 °C. Additional complexities are apparent in alkaline and arid soils, which are characterized by different relationships to climatic parameters than those in the complete Chinese (or global) dataset. For example, MBT and CBT indices exhibit a negative correlation in alkaline and arid soils, in contrast to their positive correlation in acid soils. Moreover, the cyclization ratio of bGDGTs (CBT), previously defined as a proxy for soil pH, is apparently primarily controlled by MAAT in these alkaline soils. Thus, we propose (1) a local Chinese calibration of the MBT-CBT proxy and (2) an alternative temperature proxy for use in semiarid and arid regions based on the fractional abundances of bGDGTs; the latter has a markedly higher determination factor and lower root mean square error in alkaline soils than the Chinese local calibration and is suggested to be preferred for paleotemperature reconstruction in Chinese loess/paleosol sequences. These new bGDGT proxies have been applied to the Weinan Holocene paleosol section of the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). The fractional abundance calibration, when applied in the Weinan Holocene paleosol, produces a total Holocene temperature variation of 5.2 °C and a temperature for the topmost sample that is consistent with the modern temperature. Previously, we showed that the ratio of archaeal isoprenoid GDGTs to bGDGTs (Ri/b) increases at MAP < 600 mm, and elevated Ri/b values (>0.5) in the CLP suggest the presence of enhanced aridity in the late Holocene in North China. In combination, the high Ri/b ratios (>0.5) and the associated low MBT values (<0.4) reveal the co-occurrence of dry and cold events, especially in the latest Holocene, in the loess-paleosol sequences in CLP, and probably also in cold and arid regions outside of CLP.

Atlantic deep water circulation during the last interglacial.

PubMed

Luo, Yiming; Tjiputra, Jerry; Guo, Chuncheng; Zhang, Zhongshi; Lippold, Jörg

2018-03-13

Understanding how the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) evolved during crucial past geological periods is important in order to decipher the interplay between ocean dynamics and global climate change. Previous research, based on geological proxies, has provided invaluable insights into past AMOC changes. However, the causes of the changes in water mass distributions in the Atlantic during different periods remain mostly elusive. Using a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we show that the bulk of NCW in the deep South Atlantic Ocean below 4000 m migrated from the western basins at 125 ka to the eastern basins at 115 ka, though the AMOC strength is only slightly reduced. These changes are consistent with proxy records, and it is mainly due to more penetration of the AABW at depth at 115 ka, as a result of a larger density of AABW formed at 115 ka. Our results show that depth changes in regional deep water pathways can result in large local changes, while the overall AMOC structure hardly changes. Future research should thus be careful when interpreting single proxy records in terms of large-scale AMOC changes, and considering variability of water-mass distributions on sub-basin scale would give more comprehensive interpretations of sediment records.

How accurately can the instantaneous aerosol effect on cloud albedo be constrained?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gryspeerdt, E.; Quaas, J.; Ferrachat, S.; Gettelman, A.; Ghan, S. J.; Lohmann, U.; Neubauer, D.; Morrison, H.; Partridge, D.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Zhang, K.

2017-12-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions are the most uncertain component of the anthropogenic radiative forcing, with a significant fraction of this uncertainty coming from uncertainty in the radiative forcing due to instantaneous changes in cloud albedo (the RFaci). Aerosols can have a strong influence on the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), so previous studies have used the sensitivity of CDNC to aerosol properties as a method of estimating the RFaci. However, recent studies have suggested that this sensitivity is unsuitable as a constraint on the RFaci, as it differs in the present day and pre-industrial atmosphere. This would place significant limits on our ability to constrain the RFaci from satellite observations. In this study, a selection of global aerosol-climate models are used to investigate the suitability of various aerosol proxies and methods for calculating the RFaci from present day data. A linear-regression based sensitivity of CDNC to aerosol perturbations can lead to large errors in the diagnosed RFaci, as can the use of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) as an aerosol proxy. However, we show that if suitable choices of aerosol proxy are made and the anthropogenic aerosol contribution is known, it is possible to diagnose the anthropogenic change in CDNC, and so the RFaci, using present day aerosol-cloud relationships.

A Random Forest Approach to Predict the Spatial Distribution ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Modeling the magnitude and distribution of sediment-bound pollutants in estuaries is often limited by incomplete knowledge of the site and inadequate sample density. To address these modeling limitations, a decision-support tool framework was conceived that predicts sediment contamination from the sub-estuary to broader estuary extent. For this study, a Random Forest (RF) model was implemented to predict the distribution of a model contaminant, triclosan (5-chloro-2-(2,4-dichlorophenoxy)phenol) (TCS), in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA. TCS is an unregulated contaminant used in many personal care products. The RF explanatory variables were associated with TCS transport and fate (proxies) and direct and indirect environmental entry. The continuous RF TCS concentration predictions were discretized into three levels of contamination (low, medium, and high) for three different quantile thresholds. The RF model explained 63% of the variance with a minimum number of variables. Total organic carbon (TOC) (transport and fate proxy) was a strong predictor of TCS contamination causing a mean squared error increase of 59% when compared to permutations of randomized values of TOC. Additionally, combined sewer overflow discharge (environmental entry) and sand (transport and fate proxy) were strong predictors. The discretization models identified a TCS area of greatest concern in the northern reach of Narragansett Bay (Providence River sub-estuary), which was validated wi

Astronomical component estimation (ACE v.1) by time-variant sinusoidal modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinnesael, Matthias; Zivanovic, Miroslav; De Vleeschouwer, David; Claeys, Philippe; Schoukens, Johan

2016-09-01

Accurately deciphering periodic variations in paleoclimate proxy signals is essential for cyclostratigraphy. Classical spectral analysis often relies on methods based on (fast) Fourier transformation. This technique has no unique solution separating variations in amplitude and frequency. This characteristic can make it difficult to correctly interpret a proxy's power spectrum or to accurately evaluate simultaneous changes in amplitude and frequency in evolutionary analyses. This drawback is circumvented by using a polynomial approach to estimate instantaneous amplitude and frequency in orbital components. This approach was proven useful to characterize audio signals (music and speech), which are non-stationary in nature. Paleoclimate proxy signals and audio signals share similar dynamics; the only difference is the frequency relationship between the different components. A harmonic-frequency relationship exists in audio signals, whereas this relation is non-harmonic in paleoclimate signals. However, this difference is irrelevant for the problem of separating simultaneous changes in amplitude and frequency. Using an approach with overlapping analysis frames, the model (Astronomical Component Estimation, version 1: ACE v.1) captures time variations of an orbital component by modulating a stationary sinusoid centered at its mean frequency, with a single polynomial. Hence, the parameters that determine the model are the mean frequency of the orbital component and the polynomial coefficients. The first parameter depends on geologic interpretations, whereas the latter are estimated by means of linear least-squares. As output, the model provides the orbital component waveform, either in the depth or time domain. Uncertainty analyses of the model estimates are performed using Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, it allows for a unique decomposition of the signal into its instantaneous amplitude and frequency. Frequency modulation patterns reconstruct changes in accumulation rate, whereas amplitude modulation identifies eccentricity-modulated precession. The functioning of the time-variant sinusoidal model is illustrated and validated using a synthetic insolation signal. The new modeling approach is tested on two case studies: (1) a Pliocene-Pleistocene benthic δ18O record from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 846 and (2) a Danian magnetic susceptibility record from the Contessa Highway section, Gubbio, Italy.

Validation of a Latent Construct for Dementia in a Population-Wide Dataset from Singapore.

PubMed

Peh, Chao Xu; Abdin, Edimansyah; Vaingankar, Janhavi A; Verma, Swapna; Chua, Boon Yiang; Sagayadevan, Vathsala; Seow, Esmond; Zhang, YunJue; Shahwan, Shazana; Ng, Li Ling; Prince, Martin; Chong, Siow Ann; Subramaniam, Mythily

2017-01-01

The latent variable δ has been proposed as a proxy for dementia. Previous validation studies have been conducted using convenience samples. It is currently unknown how δ performs in population-wide data. To validate δ in Singapore using population-wide epidemiological study data on persons aged 60 and above. δ was constructed using items from the Community Screening Instrument for Dementia (CSI'D) and World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS II). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted to examine δ model fit. Convergent validity was examined with the Clinical Dementia Rating scale (CDR) and GMS-AGECAT dementia. Divergent validity was examined with GMS-AGECAT depression. The δ model demonstrated fit to the data, χ2(df) = 249.71(55), p < 0.001, CFI = 0.990, TLI = 0.997, RMSEA = 0.037. Latent variable δ was significantly associated with CDR and GMS-AGECAT dementia (range: β= 0.32 to 0.63), and was not associated with GMS-AGECAT depression. Compared to unadjusted models, δ model fit was poor when adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, and education. The study found some support for δ as a proxy for dementia in Singapore based on population data. Both convergent and divergent validity were established. In addition, the δ model structure appeared to be influenced by age, gender, ethnicity, and education covariates.

An updated geospatial liquefaction model for global application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Jing; Baise, Laurie G.; Thompson, Eric M.

2017-01-01

We present an updated geospatial approach to estimation of earthquake-induced liquefaction from globally available geospatial proxies. Our previous iteration of the geospatial liquefaction model was based on mapped liquefaction surface effects from four earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Kobe, Japan, paired with geospatial explanatory variables including slope-derived VS30, compound topographic index, and magnitude-adjusted peak ground acceleration from ShakeMap. The updated geospatial liquefaction model presented herein improves the performance and the generality of the model. The updates include (1) expanding the liquefaction database to 27 earthquake events across 6 countries, (2) addressing the sampling of nonliquefaction for incomplete liquefaction inventories, (3) testing interaction effects between explanatory variables, and (4) overall improving model performance. While we test 14 geospatial proxies for soil density and soil saturation, the most promising geospatial parameters are slope-derived VS30, modeled water table depth, distance to coast, distance to river, distance to closest water body, and precipitation. We found that peak ground velocity (PGV) performs better than peak ground acceleration (PGA) as the shaking intensity parameter. We present two models which offer improved performance over prior models. We evaluate model performance using the area under the curve under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and the Brier score. The best-performing model in a coastal setting uses distance to coast but is problematic for regions away from the coast. The second best model, using PGV, VS30, water table depth, distance to closest water body, and precipitation, performs better in noncoastal regions and thus is the model we recommend for global implementation.

Climatic variability during the last deglaciation: A stalagmite-based multi-proxy record from Mawmluh cave, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huguet, C.; Munnuru Singamshetty, K.; Routh, J.; Fietz, S.; Mangini, A.; Ghosh, P.; Lone, M. A.; Rangarajan, R.; Eliasson, J.

2016-12-01

The Mawmluh cave in northeastern India, is affected by global climate patterns displaying glacial-interglacial patterns and also the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Precipitation from the ISM plays a vital role for the local community and thus, understanding the driving forces of ISM fluctuations became a recent focus of a number of paleoclimate studies. Here, we used the stalagmite KM-1 from Mawmluh cave to reconstruct climate variability during the last glacial-interglacial transition from 22 to 6 ka. For the first time, molecular proxy data (TEX86 and MBT/CBT derived from isoprenoid and branched GDGTs respectively) were coupled to stable isotope records (δ13C and δ18O) and compared to other speleothem records in Asia. ISM system abruptly transition between a suppressed and active state which is associated to changes in vegetation and thus shifts in δ13C. The abrupt δ13C shift observed in our record indicate changes to wetter climate in the Holocene, which are coupled to increase in abundance of GDGTs indicating higher production and/or transfer to KM-1. The TEX86-derived temperature roughly follows the glaciation-deglaciation cycle and Holocene changes. The TEX86 results show good correspondence with the δ18O records for temperature highlighting the potential for the use of molecular proxy in speleothem based climate reconstructions. While the MBT/CBT proxy is also defined as a temperature proxy it is not coupled with δ18O patterns, and thus shows no clear temperature signal. A decoupling between MBT/CBT from soils and the connected speleothems as well as a precipitation-moisture effect on this proxy have been previously reported. In this particular case the MBT/CBT seems to be better related to precipitation-monsoon changes, and thus warrant further exploration as a complementary proxy to isotope records for monsoon strength.

Variability in Bias of Gridded Sea Surface Temperature Data Products: Implications for Seasonally Resolved Marine Proxy Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouellette, G., Jr.; DeLong, K. L.

2016-12-01

Seasonally resolved reconstructions of sea surface temperature (SST) are commonly produced using isotopic ratios and trace elemental ratios within the skeletal material of marine organisms such as corals, coralline algae, and mollusks. Using these geochemical proxies to produce paleoclimate reconstructions requires using regression methods to calibrate the proxy to observed SST, ideally with in situ SST records that span many years. Unfortunately, the few locations with in situ SST records rarely coincide with the time span of the marine proxy archive. Therefore, SST data products are often used for calibration and they are based on MOHSST or ICOADS SST observations as their main SST source but use different algorithms to produce globally gridded data products. These products include the Hadley Center's HADSST (5º) and interpolated HADISST (1º), NOAA's extended reconstructed SST (ERSST; 2º), optimum interpolation SST (OISST; 1º), and the Kaplan SST (5º). This study assessed the potential bias in these data products at marine archive sites throughout the tropical Atlantic using in situ SST where it was available, and a high-resolution (4 km) satellite-based SST data product from NOAA Pathfinder that has been shown to closely reflect in situ SST for our locations. Bias was assessed at each site, and then within each data product across the region for spatial homogeneity. Our results reveal seasonal biases in all data products, but not for all locations and not of a uniform magnitude or season among products. We found the largest differences in mean SST on the order of 1-3°C for single sites in the Gulf of Mexico, and differences for regional mean SST bias were 0.5-1°C when sites in the Gulf of Mexico were compared to sites in the Caribbean Sea within the same data product. No one SST data product outperformed the others and no systematic bias was found. This analysis illustrates regional strengths and weaknesses of these data products, and serves as a cautionary note against the wholesale use of a particular gridded data product for marine proxy calibration, whether for a single site or larger regional reconstruction, without considering the inherent heterogeneous bias present in each data product that we show varies among locations. Furthermore, this study has implications for comparing climate models and these SST data products.

Drivers of pluvial lake distributions in western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibarra, D. E.; Oster, J. L.; Winnick, M.; Caves, J. K.; Ritch, A. J.; Chamberlain, C. P.; Maher, K.

2016-12-01

The distribution of large inland lakes in western North America during the Plio-Pleistocene is intimately linked to the regional hydroclimate and moisture delivery dynamics. We investigate the climatological conditions driving terminal basin lakes in western North America during the mid-Pliocene warm period and the latest Pleistocene glacial maximum. Lacustrine deposits and geologic proxies suggest that lakes and wet conditions persisted during both warm and cold periods in the southwest, despite dramatically different global climate, ice sheet configuration and pCO2 levels. We use two complementary methods to quantify the hydroclimate drivers of terminal basin lake levels. First, a quantitative proxy-model comparison is conducted using compilations of geologic proxies and an ensemble of climate models. We utilize archived climate model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka, LGM) and mid-Pliocene (3.3 Ma) produced by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP and PlioMIP). Our proxy network is made up of stable isotope records from caves, soils and paleosols, lake deposits and shorelines, glacier chronologies, and packrat middens. Second, we forward model the spatial distribution of lakes in the region using a Budyko framework to constrain the water balance for terminally draining watersheds, and make quantitative comparisons to mapped lacustrine shorelines and outcrops. Cumulatively these two approaches suggest that reduced evaporation and moderate increases in precipitation, relative to modern, drove moderate to large pluvial lakes during the LGM in the Great Basin. In contrast, larger precipitation increases appear to be the primary driver of lake levels during the mid-Pliocene in the southwest, with this spatial difference suggesting a role for El Niño teleconnections. These results demonstrate that during past periods of global change patterns of `dry-gets-drier, wet-gets-wetter' do not hold true for western North America.

A Tree-Ring Temperature Reconstruction from the Wrangell Mountains, Alaska (1593-1992): Evidence for Pronounced Regional Cooling During the Maunder Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DArrigo, R.; Davi, N.; Jacoby, G.; Wiles, G.

2002-05-01

The Maunder Minimum interval (from the mid-1600s-early 1700s) is believed to have been one of the coldest periods of the past thousand years in the Northern Hemisphere. A maximum latewood density temperature reconstruction for the Wrangell Mountains, southern Alaska (1593-1992) provides information on regional temperature change during the Maunder Minimum and other periods of severe cold over the past four centuries. The Wrangell density record, which reflects warm season (July-September) temperatures, shows an overall cooling over the Maunder Minimum period with annual values reaching as low as -1.8oC below the long-term mean. Ring widths, which can integrate annual as well as summer conditions, also show pronounced cooling at the Wrangell site during this time, as do Arctic and hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions based on tree rings and other proxy data. Maximum ages of glacial advance based on kill dates from overrun logs (which reflect cooler temperatures) coincide temporally with the cooling seen in the density and ring width records. In contrast, a recent modeling study indicates that during this period there was cold season (November-April) warming over much of Alaska, but cooling over other northern continental regions, as a result of decreased solar irradiance initiating low Arctic Oscillation index conditions. The influence of other forcings on Alaskan climate, the absence of ocean dynamical feedbacks in the model, and the different seasonality represented by the model and the trees may be some of the possible explanations for the different model and proxy results.

Contributions to Pliocene Arctic warmth from removal of anthropogenic aerosol and enhanced forest fire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Fletcher, T.; Ballantyne, A.; Brady, E. C.

2016-12-01

Changing atmosphere chemistry in the past has been hypothesized to have altered the earth's radiation budget, and hence the climate. Here, we use an advanced climate model to test whether this hypothesis can help explain the amplified warming in the northern high latitudes during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.0 - 3.3 Ma). The amplified warming, suggested by terrestrial proxy records of northern high latitudes, is underestimated in previous climate simulations. This mismatch between observations and models may be partially due to proxy uncertainties, but also to insufficient model sensitivity, or incomplete knowledge of mPWP climate forcings. To explore the latter aspect, we conducted three coupled simulations using the same mPWP geography and topography, vegetation and CO2 level according to the PRISM3 reconstructions, but alternating emission scenarios among clean, polluted, and clean plus forest fire case. In the clean and polluted case, year-1850 emission and year-1850 natural plus year-2000 industrial emission are prescribed respectively. For the clean-plus-forest fire simulation, emissions from mPWP forest fire are constrained with a process-based prognostic fire model using fixed proxy SSTs. Preliminary results suggest that mPWP Arctic warmth is largely attributable to the removal of anthropogenic aerosols and enhanced deposition of the black carbon on snow and ice emitted from northern high latitude forest fires. Cloud radiative responses are shown to accelerate the summer sea ice melting from the continental margins, triggering the positive surface albedo and water vapor feedback that maintain a low perennial sea ice state in the Arctic Ocean. These results identify the important role that changes in aerosol chemistry may play in amplifying arctic surface temperatures of mPWP and insights on the role that aerosols may play in amplifying future Arctic temperatures.

Temperature variations in the southern Great Lakes during the last deglaciation: Comparison between pollen and GDGT proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Benjamin I.; Williams, John W.; Russell, James M.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Shane, Linda; Lowell, Thomas V.

2018-02-01

Our understanding of deglacial climate history in the southern Great Lakes region of the United States is primarily based upon fossil pollen data, with few independent and multi-proxy climate reconstructions. Here we introduce a new, well-dated fossil pollen record from Stotzel-Leis, OH, and a new deglacial temperature record based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) at Silver Lake, OH. We compare these new data to previously published records and to a regional stack of pollen-based temperature reconstructions from Stotzel-Leis, Silver Lake, and three other well-dated sites. The new and previously published pollen records at Stotzel-Leis are similar, but our new age model brings vegetation events into closer alignment with known climatic events such as the Younger Dryas (YD). brGDGT-inferred temperatures correlate strongly with pollen-based regional temperature reconstructions, with the strongest correlation obtained for a global soil-based brGDGT calibration (r2 = 0.88), lending confidence to the deglacial reconstructions and the use of brGDGT and regional pollen stacks as paleotemperature proxies in eastern North America. However, individual pollen records show large differences in timing, rates, and amplitudes of inferred temperature change, indicating caution with paleoclimatic inferences based on single-site pollen records. From 16.0 to 10.0ka, both proxies indicate that regional temperatures rose by ∼10 °C, roughly double the ∼5 °C estimates for the Northern Hemisphere reported in prior syntheses. Change-point analysis of the pollen stack shows accelerated warming at 14.0 ± 1.2ka, cooling at 12.6 ± 0.4ka, and warming from 11.6 ± 0.5ka into the Holocene. The timing of Bølling-Allerød (B-A) warming and YD onset in our records lag by ∼300-500 years those reported in syntheses of temperature records from the northern mid-latitudes. This discrepancy is too large to be attributed to uncertainties in radiocarbon dating, and correlation between pollen and brGDGT temperature reconstructions rules out vegetation lags as a cause. However, the YD termination appears synchronous among the brGDGT record, regional pollen stack, and Northern Hemisphere stack. The cause of the larger and lagged temperature changes in the southern Great Lakes relative to Northern Hemisphere averages remains unclear, but may be due to the effects of continentality and ice sheet extent on regional climate evolution.

Temperature variations in the southern Great Lakes during the last deglaciation: Comparison between pollen and GDGT proxies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Benjamin I.; Williams, John W.; Russell, James M.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Shane, Linda; Lowell, Thomas V.

2018-01-01

Our understanding of deglacial climate history in the southern Great Lakes region of the United States is primarily based upon fossil pollen data, with few independent and multi-proxy climate reconstructions. Here we introduce a new, well-dated fossil pollen record from Stotzel-Leis, OH, and a new deglacial temperature record based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) at Silver Lake, OH. We compare these new data to previously published records and to a regional stack of pollen-based temperature reconstructions from Stotzel-Leis, Silver Lake, and three other well-dated sites. The new and previously published pollen records at Stotzel-Leis are similar, but our new age model brings vegetation events into closer alignment with known climatic events such as the Younger Dryas (YD). brGDGT-inferred temperatures correlate strongly with pollen-based regional temperature reconstructions, with the strongest correlation obtained for a global soil-based brGDGT calibration (r2 = 0.88), lending confidence to the deglacial reconstructions and the use of brGDGT and regional pollen stacks as paleotemperature proxies in eastern North America. However, individual pollen records show large differences in timing, rates, and amplitudes of inferred temperature change, indicating caution with paleoclimatic inferences based on single-site pollen records. From 16.0 to 10.0ka, both proxies indicate that regional temperatures rose by ∼10 °C, roughly double the ∼5 °C estimates for the Northern Hemisphere reported in prior syntheses. Change-point analysis of the pollen stack shows accelerated warming at 14.0 ± 1.2ka, cooling at 12.6 ± 0.4ka, and warming from 11.6 ± 0.5ka into the Holocene. The timing of Bølling-Allerød (B-A) warming and YD onset in our records lag by ∼300–500 years those reported in syntheses of temperature records from the northern mid-latitudes. This discrepancy is too large to be attributed to uncertainties in radiocarbon dating, and correlation between pollen and brGDGT temperature reconstructions rules out vegetation lags as a cause. However, the YD termination appears synchronous among the brGDGT record, regional pollen stack, and Northern Hemisphere stack. The cause of the larger and lagged temperature changes in the southern Great Lakes relative to Northern Hemisphere averages remains unclear, but may be due to the effects of continentality and ice sheet extent on regional climate evolution.

Using Instrumental and Proxy Data to Determine the Causes of Fast and Slow Warming rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegerl, G. C.; Schurer, A. P.; Obrochta, S.

2015-12-01

The recent warming 'hiatus' is subject to intense interest, with proposed causes including natural forcing and internal variability. We derive samples of all natural and interval variability from observations and a recent proxy reconstruction to investigate the likelihood that these two sources of variability could produce a hiatus or rapid warming in surface temperature. The likelihood is found to be consistent with that calculated previously for models and exhibits a similar spatial pattern, with an Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like structure, although with more signal in the Atlantic than in model patterns. The number and length of events increases if natural forcing is also considered, with volcanic forcing acting as a pacemaker for both fast and slow warming rates in model simulations of the last millennium, and, to a smaller extent, from observations. Big eruptions, such as Mount Tambora in 1815, or clusters of eruptions, may result in a hiatus of over 20 years. A striking finding is the smaller influence of volcanism on surface temperature warming rates in instrumental and proxy data than in climate models. This talk will discuss the possible reasons of this discrepancy.

Driving with Mild Cognitive Impairment or Dementia: Cognitive Test Performance and Proxy Report of Daily Life Function in Older Women.

PubMed

Vaughan, Leslie; Hogan, Patricia E; Rapp, Stephen R; Dugan, Elizabeth; Marottoli, Richard A; Snively, Beverly M; Shumaker, Sally A; Sink, Kaycee M

2015-09-01

To investigate associations between proxy report of cognitive and functional limitations and cognitive performance and current or former driving status in older women with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and all-cause dementia. Cross-sectional data analysis of retrospectively identified older women with adjudicated MCI and all-cause dementia in the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study-Epidemiology of Cognitive Health Outcomes (WHIMS-ECHO). Academic medical center. Women (mean age ± standard deviation 83.7 ± 3.5) adjudicated with MCI or dementia during Year 1, 2, 3, or 4 of the WHIMS-ECHO follow-up period (N = 385). The telephone-administered cognitive battery included tests of attention, verbal learning and memory, verbal fluency, executive function, working memory, and global cognitive function plus self-report measures of depressive symptomatology. The Dementia Questionnaire (DQ) was administered to a knowledgeable proxy (family member, friend). Sixty percent of women with MCI and 40% of those with dementia are current drivers. Proxy reports of functional limitations in instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) are associated with current driving status in women with MCI, whereas performance-based cognitive tests are not. In women with dementia, proxy reports of functional limitations in IADLs and performance-based cognitive tests are associated with current driving status, as expected. These findings have clinical implications for the importance of evaluating driving concurrently with other instrumental functional abilities in MCI and dementia. Additional work is needed to determine whether proxy report of cognitive and functional impairments should help guide referrals for driving assessment and rehabilitation or counseling for driving transition. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

Fire activity and severity in the western US vary along proxy gradients representing fuel amount and fuel moisture.

PubMed

Parks, Sean A; Parisien, Marc-André; Miller, Carol; Dobrowski, Solomon Z

2014-01-01

Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have shown that wildfire activity (e.g., area burned) at regional to global scales may be limited at the extremes of environmental gradients such as productivity or moisture. Fire activity, however, represents only one component of the fire regime, and no studies to date have characterized fire severity along such gradients. Given the importance of fire severity in dictating ecological response to fire, this is a considerable knowledge gap. For the western US, we quantify relationships between climate and the fire regime by empirically describing both fire activity and severity along two climatic water balance gradients, actual evapotranspiration (AET) and water deficit (WD), that can be considered proxies for fuel amount and fuel moisture, respectively. We also concurrently summarize fire activity and severity among ecoregions, providing an empirically based description of the geographic distribution of fire regimes. Our results show that fire activity in the western US increases with fuel amount (represented by AET) but has a unimodal (i.e., humped) relationship with fuel moisture (represented by WD); fire severity increases with fuel amount and fuel moisture. The explicit links between fire regime components and physical environmental gradients suggest that multivariable statistical models can be generated to produce an empirically based fire regime map for the western US. Such models will potentially enable researchers to anticipate climate-mediated changes in fire recurrence and its impacts based on gridded spatial data representing future climate scenarios.

Fire Activity and Severity in the Western US Vary along Proxy Gradients Representing Fuel Amount and Fuel Moisture

PubMed Central

Parks, Sean A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Miller, Carol; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.

2014-01-01

Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have shown that wildfire activity (e.g., area burned) at regional to global scales may be limited at the extremes of environmental gradients such as productivity or moisture. Fire activity, however, represents only one component of the fire regime, and no studies to date have characterized fire severity along such gradients. Given the importance of fire severity in dictating ecological response to fire, this is a considerable knowledge gap. For the western US, we quantify relationships between climate and the fire regime by empirically describing both fire activity and severity along two climatic water balance gradients, actual evapotranspiration (AET) and water deficit (WD), that can be considered proxies for fuel amount and fuel moisture, respectively. We also concurrently summarize fire activity and severity among ecoregions, providing an empirically based description of the geographic distribution of fire regimes. Our results show that fire activity in the western US increases with fuel amount (represented by AET) but has a unimodal (i.e., humped) relationship with fuel moisture (represented by WD); fire severity increases with fuel amount and fuel moisture. The explicit links between fire regime components and physical environmental gradients suggest that multivariable statistical models can be generated to produce an empirically based fire regime map for the western US. Such models will potentially enable researchers to anticipate climate-mediated changes in fire recurrence and its impacts based on gridded spatial data representing future climate scenarios. PMID:24941290

Potential worldwide distribution of Fusarium dry root rot in common beans based on the optimal environment for disease occurrence.

PubMed

Macedo, Renan; Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Yoshida, Fernanda; Silva-Abud, Lidianne Lemes; Lobo, Murillo

2017-01-01

Root rots are a constraint for staple food crops and a long-lasting food security problem worldwide. In common beans, yield losses originating from root damage are frequently attributed to dry root rot, a disease caused by the Fusarium solani species complex. The aim of this study was to model the current potential distribution of common bean dry root rot on a global scale and to project changes based on future expectations of climate change. Our approach used a spatial proxy of the field disease occurrence, instead of solely the pathogen distribution. We modeled the pathogen environmental requirements in locations where in-situ inoculum density seems ideal for disease manifestation. A dataset of 2,311 soil samples from commercial farms assessed from 2002 to 2015 allowed us to evaluate the environmental conditions associated with the pathogen's optimum inoculum density for disease occurrence, using a lower threshold as a spatial proxy. We encompassed not only the optimal conditions for disease occurrence but also the optimal pathogen's density required for host infection. An intermediate inoculum density of the pathogen was the best disease proxy, suggesting density-dependent mechanisms on host infection. We found a strong convergence on the environmental requirements of both the host and the disease development in tropical areas, mostly in Brazil, Central America, and African countries. Precipitation and temperature variables were important for explaining the disease occurrence (from 17.63% to 43.84%). Climate change will probably move the disease toward cooler regions, which in Brazil are more representative of small-scale farming, although an overall shrink in total area (from 48% to 49% in 2050 and 26% to 41% in 2070) was also predicted. Understanding pathogen distribution and disease risks in an evolutionary context will therefore support breeding for resistance programs and strategies for dry root rot management in common beans.

Potential worldwide distribution of Fusarium dry root rot in common beans based on the optimal environment for disease occurrence

PubMed Central

Macedo, Renan; Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Yoshida, Fernanda; Silva-Abud, Lidianne Lemes

2017-01-01

Root rots are a constraint for staple food crops and a long-lasting food security problem worldwide. In common beans, yield losses originating from root damage are frequently attributed to dry root rot, a disease caused by the Fusarium solani species complex. The aim of this study was to model the current potential distribution of common bean dry root rot on a global scale and to project changes based on future expectations of climate change. Our approach used a spatial proxy of the field disease occurrence, instead of solely the pathogen distribution. We modeled the pathogen environmental requirements in locations where in-situ inoculum density seems ideal for disease manifestation. A dataset of 2,311 soil samples from commercial farms assessed from 2002 to 2015 allowed us to evaluate the environmental conditions associated with the pathogen’s optimum inoculum density for disease occurrence, using a lower threshold as a spatial proxy. We encompassed not only the optimal conditions for disease occurrence but also the optimal pathogen’s density required for host infection. An intermediate inoculum density of the pathogen was the best disease proxy, suggesting density-dependent mechanisms on host infection. We found a strong convergence on the environmental requirements of both the host and the disease development in tropical areas, mostly in Brazil, Central America, and African countries. Precipitation and temperature variables were important for explaining the disease occurrence (from 17.63% to 43.84%). Climate change will probably move the disease toward cooler regions, which in Brazil are more representative of small-scale farming, although an overall shrink in total area (from 48% to 49% in 2050 and 26% to 41% in 2070) was also predicted. Understanding pathogen distribution and disease risks in an evolutionary context will therefore support breeding for resistance programs and strategies for dry root rot management in common beans. PMID:29107985

Machine learning modeling of plant phenology based on coupling satellite and gridded meteorological dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czernecki, Bartosz; Nowosad, Jakub; Jabłońska, Katarzyna

2018-04-01

Changes in the timing of plant phenological phases are important proxies in contemporary climate research. However, most of the commonly used traditional phenological observations do not give any coherent spatial information. While consistent spatial data can be obtained from airborne sensors and preprocessed gridded meteorological data, not many studies robustly benefit from these data sources. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing, predicting, and improving quality of phenological phases monitoring with the use of satellite and meteorological products. A quality-controlled dataset of the 13 BBCH plant phenophases in Poland was collected for the period 2007-2014. For each phenophase, statistical models were built using the most commonly applied regression-based machine learning techniques, such as multiple linear regression, lasso, principal component regression, generalized boosted models, and random forest. The quality of the models was estimated using a k-fold cross-validation. The obtained results showed varying potential for coupling meteorological derived indices with remote sensing products in terms of phenological modeling; however, application of both data sources improves models' accuracy from 0.6 to 4.6 day in terms of obtained RMSE. It is shown that a robust prediction of early phenological phases is mostly related to meteorological indices, whereas for autumn phenophases, there is a stronger information signal provided by satellite-derived vegetation metrics. Choosing a specific set of predictors and applying a robust preprocessing procedures is more important for final results than the selection of a particular statistical model. The average RMSE for the best models of all phenophases is 6.3, while the individual RMSE vary seasonally from 3.5 to 10 days. Models give reliable proxy for ground observations with RMSE below 5 days for early spring and late spring phenophases. For other phenophases, RMSE are higher and rise up to 9-10 days in the case of the earliest spring phenophases.

Validation of a proxy for estrogen receptor status in breast cancer patients using dispensing data.

PubMed

Srasuebkul, Preeyaporn; Dobbins, Timothy A; Pearson, Sallie-Anne

2014-06-01

To assess the performance of a proxy for estrogen receptor (ER) status in breast cancer patients using dispensing data. We derived our proxy using 167 patients. ER+ patients had evidence of at least one dispensing record for hormone therapy during the lookback period, irrespective of diagnosis date and ER- had no dispensing records for hormone therapy during the period. We validated the proxy against our gold standard, ER status from pathology reports or medical records. We assessed the proxy's performance using three lookback periods: 4.5 years, 2 years, 1 year. More than half of our cohort (62%) were >50 years, 54% had stage III/IV breast cancer at recruitment, (46%) were diagnosed with breast cancer in 2009 and 23% were diagnosed before 2006. Sensitivity and specificity were high for the 4.5 year lookback period (93%, 95% CI: 86-96%; and 95%: 83-99%), respectively) and remained high for the 2-year lookback period (91%: 84-95%; and 95%: 83-99%). Sensitivity decreased (83%: 75.2-89%) but specificity remained high (95%: 83-99%) using the 1-year lookback period and the period is long enough to allow sufficient time for hormone therapy to be dispensed. Our proxy accurately infers ER status in studies of breast cancer treatment based on secondary health data. The proxy is most robust with a minimum lookback period of 2 years. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Precise age for the Permian-Triassic boundary in South China from high-precision U-Pb geochronology and Bayesian age-depth modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baresel, Björn; Bucher, Hugo; Brosse, Morgane; Cordey, Fabrice; Guodun, Kuang; Schaltegger, Urs

2017-03-01

This study is based on zircon U-Pb ages of 12 volcanic ash layers and volcanogenic sandstones from two deep water sections with conformable and continuous formational Permian-Triassic boundaries (PTBs) in the Nanpanjiang Basin (South China). Our dates of single, thermally annealed and chemically abraded zircons bracket the PTB in Dongpan and Penglaitan and provide the basis for a first proof-of-concept study utilizing a Bayesian chronology model comparing the three sections of Dongpan, Penglaitan and the Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) at Meishan. Our Bayesian modeling demonstrates that the formational boundaries in Dongpan (251.939 ± 0.030 Ma), Penglaitan (251.984 ± 0.031 Ma) and Meishan (251.956 ± 0.035 Ma) are synchronous within analytical uncertainty of ˜ 40 ka. It also provides quantitative evidence that the ages of the paleontologically defined boundaries, based on conodont unitary association zones in Meishan and on macrofaunas in Dongpan, are identical and coincide with the age of the formational boundaries. The age model also confirms the extreme condensation around the PTB in Meishan, which distorts the projection of any stratigraphic points or intervals onto other more expanded sections by means of Bayesian age-depth models. Dongpan and Penglaitan possess significantly higher sediment accumulation rates and thus offer a greater potential for high-resolution studies of environmental proxies and correlations around the PTB than Meishan. This study highlights the power of high-resolution radio-isotopic ages that allow a robust intercalibration of patterns of biotic changes and fluctuating environmental proxies and will help recognizing their global, regional or local significance.

Graphite-(Mo,W)S2 intergrowth as a palaeoenvironmental proxy in metasedimentary rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabral, Alexandre Raphael; Zeh, Armin; da Silva Viana, Nívea Cristina; Schirmer, Thomas; Lehmann, Bernd

2017-12-01

Molybdenum enrichment in pristine organic-C-rich sedimentary rocks forms the basis for inferring the presence of dissolved oxygen in seawater. Organic matter removes dissolved hexavalent Mo from seawater where anoxic and euxinic conditions are attained. However, it is unknown whether this Mo-based proxy is retained under metamorphic conditions where organic C is no longer preserved. Here, we describe aggregates of graphite and molybdenite (MoS2) containing up to 21 mass per cent of W as tungstenite (WS2) in solid solution. These aggregates are disseminated in a sulfide-rich Mn-silicate-carbonate rock (queluzite), metamorphosed under amphibolite-facies conditions within the Archaean Barbacena greenstone belt in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Our finding indicates that: (i) W is, like Mo, a palaeoenvironmental proxy; (ii) the W proxy is sensitive to high fS2/fO2 environments; (iii) both Mo and W proxies survive amphibolite-facies overprint as (Mo,W)S2 intergrown with graphite. Archaean greenstones are potential candidates for storing palaeoenvironmental information as (Mo,W)S2-graphite intergrowths.

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package: Version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swales, Dustin J.; Pincus, Robert; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro

2018-01-01

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) gathers together a collection of observation proxies or satellite simulators that translate model-simulated cloud properties to synthetic observations as would be obtained by a range of satellite observing systems. This paper introduces COSP2, an evolution focusing on more explicit and consistent separation between host model, coupling infrastructure, and individual observing proxies. Revisions also enhance flexibility by allowing for model-specific representation of sub-grid-scale cloudiness, provide greater clarity by clearly separating tasks, support greater use of shared code and data including shared inputs across simulators, and follow more uniform software standards to simplify implementation across a wide range of platforms. The complete package including a testing suite is freely available.

Imaging Global Electron Content backwards in time more than 160 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyaeva, T. L.; Veselovsky, I. S.

2014-02-01

The Global Electron Content, GEC, represents the total number of electrons in the spherical layer over the Earth restricted by orbit of Global Positioning Satellite system (20,200 km). GEC is produced from Global Ionospheric Map of Total Electron Content, GIM-TEC, transformed to the electron density varying with height using the International Reference Ionosphere and Plasmasphere model, IRI-Plas. The climatologic GEC model is developed from GIM-TEC maps for a period 1999-2012 including the solar activity, annual and semiannual cycles as the most important factors affecting daily GEC variation. The proxy Rzp of the international sunspot numbers, Ri, is used as a measure of solar activity composed of 3 day smoothed Ri, 7 day and 81 day backwards mean of Ri scaled to the range of 1-40 proxy units, p.u. The root mean square error of the GEC climatologic model is found to vary from 8% to 13% of GEC. Taking advantage of a long history of sunspot numbers, the climatologic GEC model is applied for GEC reconstruction backwards in time for more than 160 years ago since 1850. The extended set of GEC values provides the numerical representation of the ionosphere and plasmasphere electron content coherent with variations of solar activity as a potential proxy index driving the ionosphere models.

A database of paleoceanographic sediment cores from the North Pacific, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borreggine, Marisa; Myhre, Sarah E.; Mislan, K. Allison S.; Deutsch, Curtis; Davis, Catherine V.

2017-09-01

We assessed sediment coring, data acquisition, and publications from the North Pacific (north of 30° N) from 1951 to 2016. There are 2134 sediment cores collected by American, French, Japanese, Russian, and international research vessels across the North Pacific (including the Pacific subarctic gyre, Alaskan gyre, Japan margin, and California margin; 1391 cores), the Sea of Okhotsk (271 cores), the Bering Sea (123 cores), and the Sea of Japan (349 cores) reported here. All existing metadata associated with these sediment cores are documented here, including coring date, location, core number, cruise number, water depth, vessel metadata, and coring technology. North Pacific sediment core age models are built with isotope stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, magnetostratigraphy, biostratigraphy, tephrochronology, % opal, color, and lithological proxies. Here, we evaluate the iterative generation of each published age model and provide comprehensive documentation of the dating techniques used, along with sedimentation rates and age ranges. We categorized cores according to the availability of a variety of proxy evidence, including biological (e.g., benthic and planktonic foraminifera assemblages), geochemical (e.g., major trace element concentrations), isotopic (e.g., bulk sediment nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon isotopes), and stratigraphic (e.g., preserved laminations) proxies. This database is a unique resource to the paleoceanographic and paleoclimate communities and provides cohesive accessibility to sedimentary sequences, age model development, and proxies. The data set is publicly available through PANGAEA at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.875998.

A network monitor for HTTPS protocol based on proxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yangxin; Zhang, Lingcui; Zhou, Shuguang; Li, Fenghua

2016-10-01

With the explosive growth of harmful Internet information such as pornography, violence, and hate messages, network monitoring is essential. Traditional network monitors is based mainly on bypass monitoring. However, we can't filter network traffic using bypass monitoring. Meanwhile, only few studies focus on the network monitoring for HTTPS protocol. That is because HTTPS data is in the encrypted traffic, which makes it difficult to monitor. This paper proposes a network monitor for HTTPS protocol based on proxy. We adopt OpenSSL to establish TLS secure tunes between clients and servers. Epoll is used to handle a large number of concurrent client connections. We also adopt Knuth- Morris-Pratt string searching algorithm (or KMP algorithm) to speed up the search process. Besides, we modify request packets to reduce the risk of errors and modify response packets to improve security. Experiments show that our proxy can monitor the content of all tested HTTPS websites efficiently with little loss of network performance.

fiReproxies: A computational model providing insight into heat-affected archaeological lithic assemblages.

PubMed

Sorensen, Andrew C; Scherjon, Fulco

2018-01-01

Evidence for fire use becomes increasingly sparse the further back in time one looks. This is especially true for Palaeolithic assemblages. Primary evidence of fire use in the form of hearth features tends to give way to clusters or sparse scatters of more durable heated stone fragments. In the absence of intact fireplaces, these thermally altered lithic remains have been used as a proxy for discerning relative degrees of fire use between archaeological layers and deposits. While previous experimental studies have demonstrated the physical effects of heat on stony artefacts, the mechanisms influencing the proportion of fire proxy evidence within archaeological layers remain understudied. This fundamental study is the first to apply a computer-based model (fiReproxies) in an attempt to simulate and quantify the complex interplay of factors that ultimately determine when and in what proportions lithic artefacts are heated by (anthropogenic) fires. As an illustrative example, we apply our model to two hypothetical archaeological layers that reflect glacial and interglacial conditions during the late Middle Palaeolithic within a generic simulated cave site to demonstrate how different environmental, behavioural and depositional factors like site surface area, sedimentation rate, occupation frequency, and fire size and intensity can, independently or together, significantly influence the visibility of archaeological fire signals.

fiReproxies: A computational model providing insight into heat-affected archaeological lithic assemblages

PubMed Central

Scherjon, Fulco

2018-01-01

Evidence for fire use becomes increasingly sparse the further back in time one looks. This is especially true for Palaeolithic assemblages. Primary evidence of fire use in the form of hearth features tends to give way to clusters or sparse scatters of more durable heated stone fragments. In the absence of intact fireplaces, these thermally altered lithic remains have been used as a proxy for discerning relative degrees of fire use between archaeological layers and deposits. While previous experimental studies have demonstrated the physical effects of heat on stony artefacts, the mechanisms influencing the proportion of fire proxy evidence within archaeological layers remain understudied. This fundamental study is the first to apply a computer-based model (fiReproxies) in an attempt to simulate and quantify the complex interplay of factors that ultimately determine when and in what proportions lithic artefacts are heated by (anthropogenic) fires. As an illustrative example, we apply our model to two hypothetical archaeological layers that reflect glacial and interglacial conditions during the late Middle Palaeolithic within a generic simulated cave site to demonstrate how different environmental, behavioural and depositional factors like site surface area, sedimentation rate, occupation frequency, and fire size and intensity can, independently or together, significantly influence the visibility of archaeological fire signals. PMID:29768454

Mineralogical evidence of reduced East Asian summer monsoon rainfall on the Chinese loess plateau during the early Pleistocene interglacials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Xianqiang; Liu, Lianwen; Wang, Xingchen T.; Balsam, William; Chen, Jun; Ji, Junfeng

2018-03-01

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important component of the global climate system. A better understanding of EASM rainfall variability in the past can help constrain climate models and better predict the response of EASM to ongoing global warming. The warm early Pleistocene, a potential analog of future climate, is an important period to study EASM dynamics. However, existing monsoon proxies for reconstruction of EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene fail to disentangle monsoon rainfall changes from temperature variations, complicating the comparison of these monsoon records with climate models. Here, we present three 2.6 million-year-long EASM rainfall records from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) based on carbonate dissolution, a novel proxy for rainfall intensity. These records show that the interglacial rainfall on the CLP was lower during the early Pleistocene and then gradually increased with global cooling during the middle and late Pleistocene. These results are contrary to previous suggestions that a warmer climate leads to higher monsoon rainfall on tectonic timescales. We propose that the lower interglacial EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene was caused by reduced sea surface temperature gradients across the equatorial Pacific, providing a testable hypothesis for climate models.

Cross-sectional test of the Fama-French three-factor model: Evidence from Bangladesh stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Md. Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah

2014-09-01

Stock market is an important part of a country's economy. It supports the country's economic development and progress by encouraging the efficiency and profitability of firms. This research was designed to examine the risk-return association of companies in the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market of Bangladesh by using the Fama-French three-factor model structure. The model is based on three factors, which are stock beta, SMB (difference in returns of the portfolio with small market capitalisation minus that with big market capitalisation) and HML (difference in returns of the portfolio with high book-to-market ratio minus that with low book-to-market ratio). This study focused on the DSE market as it is one of the frontier emerging stock markets of South Asia. For this study, monthly stock returns from 71 non-financial companies were used for the period of January 2002 to December 2011. DSI Index was used as a proxy for the market portfolio and Bangladesh government 3-Month T-bill rate was used as the proxy for the risk-free asset. It was found that large capital stocks outperform small capital stocks and stocks with lower book-to-market ratios outperform stocks with higher book-to-market ratios in the context of Bangladesh stock market.

Income and Technology as Drivers of Australian Healthcare Expenditures.

PubMed

You, Xiaohui; Okunade, Albert A

2017-07-01

The roles of income and technology as the major determinants of aggregate healthcare expenditure (HEXP) continue to interest economists and health policy researchers. Concepts and measures of medical technologies remain complex; however, income (on the demand side) and technology (on the supply side) are important drivers of HEXP. This paper presents analysis of Australia's HEXP, using time-series econometrics modeling techniques applied to 1971-2011 annual aggregate data. Our work fills two important gaps in the literature. First, we model the determinants of Australia's HEXP using the latest and longest available data series. Second, this novel study investigates several alternative technology proxies (input and output measures), including economy-wide research and development expenditures, hospital research expenditures, mortality rate, and two technology indexes based on medical devices. We then apply the residual component method and the technology proxy approach to quantify the technology effects on HEXP. Our empirical results suggest that Australian aggregate healthcare is a normal good and a technical necessity with the income elasticity estimates ranging from 0.51 to 0.97, depending on the model. The estimated technology effects on HEXP falling in the 0.30-0.35 range and mimicking those in the literature using the US data, reinforce the global spread of healthcare technology. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Investigation of the UK37' vs. SST relationship for Atlantic Ocean suspended particulate alkenones: An alternative regression model and discussion of possible sampling bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, Jessica; Kienast, Markus; Dowd, Michael

2017-05-01

Alkenone unsaturation, expressed as the UK37' index, is closely related to growth temperature of prymnesiophytes, thus providing a reliable proxy to infer past sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here we address two lingering uncertainties related to this SST proxy. First, calibration models developed for core-top sediments and those developed for surface suspended particulates organic material (SPOM) show systematic offsets, raising concerns regarding the transfer of the primary signal into the sedimentary record. Second, questions remain regarding changes in slope of the UK37' vs. growth temperature relationship at the temperature extremes. Based on (re)analysis of 31 new and 394 previously published SPOM UK37' data from the Atlantic Ocean, a new regression model to relate UK37' to SST is introduced; the Richards curve (Richards, 1959). This non-linear regression model provides a robust calibration of the UK37' vs. SST relationship for Atlantic SPOM samples and uniquely accounts for both the fact that the UK37' index is a proportion, and so must lie between 0 and 1, as well as for the observed reduction in slope at the warm and cold ends of the temperature range. As with prior fits of SPOM UK37' vs. SST, the Richards model is offset from traditional regression models of sedimentary UK37' vs. SST. We posit that (some of) this offset can be attributed to the seasonally and depth biased sampling of SPOM material.

Palaeoclimate records 60-8 ka in the Austrian and Swiss Alps and their forelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heiri, Oliver; Koinig, Karin A.; Spötl, Christoph; Barrett, Sam; Brauer, Achim; Drescher-Schneider, Ruth; Gaar, Dorian; Ivy-Ochs, Susan; Kerschner, Hanns; Luetscher, Marc; Moran, Andrew; Nicolussi, Kurt; Preusser, Frank; Schmidt, Roland; Schoeneich, Philippe; Schwörer, Christoph; Sprafke, Tobias; Terhorst, Birgit; Tinner, Willy

2014-12-01

The European Alps and their forelands provide a range of different archives and climate proxies for developing climate records in the time interval 60-8 thousand years (ka) ago. We review quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches for reconstructing climatic variables in the Austrian and Swiss sector of the Alpine region within this time interval. Available quantitative to semi-quantitative climate records in this region are mainly based on fossil assemblages of biota such as chironomids, cladocerans, coleopterans, diatoms and pollen preserved in lake sediments and peat, the analysis of oxygen isotopes in speleothems and lake sediment records, the reconstruction of past variations in treeline altitude, the reconstruction of past equilibrium line altitude and extent of glaciers based on geomorphological evidence, and the interpretation of past soil formation processes, dust deposition and permafrost as apparent in loess-palaeosol sequences. Palaeoclimate reconstructions in the Alpine region are affected by dating uncertainties increasing with age, the fragmentary nature of most of the available records, which typically only incorporate a fraction of the time interval of interest, and the limited replication of records within and between regions. Furthermore, there have been few attempts to cross-validate different approaches across this time interval to confirm reconstructed patterns of climatic change by several independent lines of evidence. Based on our review we identify a number of developments that would provide major advances for palaeoclimate reconstruction for the period 60-8 ka in the Alps and their forelands. These include (1) the compilation of individual, fragmentary records to longer and continuous reconstructions, (2) replication of climate records and the development of regional reconstructions for different parts of the Alps, (3) the cross-validation of different proxy-types and approaches, and (4) the reconstruction of past variations in climate gradients across the Alps and their forelands. Furthermore, the development of downscaled climate model runs for the Alpine region 60-8 ka, and of forward modelling approaches for climate proxies would expand the opportunities for quantitative assessments of climatic conditions in Europe within this time-interval.

Adaptive and non-adaptive models of depression: A comparison using register data on antidepressant medication during divorce

PubMed Central

Fawcett, Tim W.; Higginson, Andrew D.; Metsä-Simola, Niina; Hagen, Edward H.; Houston, Alasdair I.; Martikainen, Pekka

2017-01-01

Divorce is associated with an increased probability of a depressive episode, but the causation of events remains unclear. Adaptive models of depression propose that depression is a social strategy in part, whereas non-adaptive models tend to propose a diathesis-stress mechanism. We compare an adaptive evolutionary model of depression to three alternative non-adaptive models with respect to their ability to explain the temporal pattern of depression around the time of divorce. Register-based data (304,112 individuals drawn from a random sample of 11% of Finnish people) on antidepressant purchases is used as a proxy for depression. This proxy affords an unprecedented temporal resolution (a 3-monthly prevalence estimates over 10 years) without any bias from non-compliance, and it can be linked with underlying episodes via a statistical model. The evolutionary-adaptation model (all time periods with risk of divorce are depressogenic) was the best quantitative description of the data. The non-adaptive stress-relief model (period before divorce is depressogenic and period afterwards is not) provided the second best quantitative description of the data. The peak-stress model (periods before and after divorce can be depressogenic) fit the data less well, and the stress-induction model (period following divorce is depressogenic and the preceding period is not) did not fit the data at all. The evolutionary model was the most detailed mechanistic description of the divorce-depression link among the models, and the best fit in terms of predicted curvature; thus, it offers most rigorous hypotheses for further study. The stress-relief model also fit very well and was the best model in a sensitivity analysis, encouraging development of more mechanistic models for that hypothesis. PMID:28614385

Adaptive and non-adaptive models of depression: A comparison using register data on antidepressant medication during divorce.

PubMed

Rosenström, Tom; Fawcett, Tim W; Higginson, Andrew D; Metsä-Simola, Niina; Hagen, Edward H; Houston, Alasdair I; Martikainen, Pekka

2017-01-01

Divorce is associated with an increased probability of a depressive episode, but the causation of events remains unclear. Adaptive models of depression propose that depression is a social strategy in part, whereas non-adaptive models tend to propose a diathesis-stress mechanism. We compare an adaptive evolutionary model of depression to three alternative non-adaptive models with respect to their ability to explain the temporal pattern of depression around the time of divorce. Register-based data (304,112 individuals drawn from a random sample of 11% of Finnish people) on antidepressant purchases is used as a proxy for depression. This proxy affords an unprecedented temporal resolution (a 3-monthly prevalence estimates over 10 years) without any bias from non-compliance, and it can be linked with underlying episodes via a statistical model. The evolutionary-adaptation model (all time periods with risk of divorce are depressogenic) was the best quantitative description of the data. The non-adaptive stress-relief model (period before divorce is depressogenic and period afterwards is not) provided the second best quantitative description of the data. The peak-stress model (periods before and after divorce can be depressogenic) fit the data less well, and the stress-induction model (period following divorce is depressogenic and the preceding period is not) did not fit the data at all. The evolutionary model was the most detailed mechanistic description of the divorce-depression link among the models, and the best fit in terms of predicted curvature; thus, it offers most rigorous hypotheses for further study. The stress-relief model also fit very well and was the best model in a sensitivity analysis, encouraging development of more mechanistic models for that hypothesis.

Claims-based proxies of patient instability among commercially insured adults with schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Ruetsch, Charles; Un, Hyong; Waters, Heidi C

2018-01-01

Objective Schizophrenia (Sz) patients are among the highest utilizers of hospital-based services. Prevention of relapse is in part a treatment goal in order to reduce hospital admissions. However, predicting relapse is a challenge, particularly for payers and disease management firms with only access to claims data. Understandably, such organizations have had little success predicting relapse. A tool that allows payers to identify patients at elevated risk of relapse could facilitate targeted interventions prior to relapse and avoid rehospitalization. In this study, a series of proxy measures of patient instability, calculated from claims data were examined for their utility in identifying Sz patients at elevated risk of relapse. Methods Aetna claims were used to assess the relationship between instability of Sz patients and valence and magnitude of antipsychotic (AP) medication change during a 2-year period. Six proxies of instability including hospital admissions, emergency department visits, medication utilization patterns, and use of outpatient services were identified. Results were replicated using claims data from Truven MarketScan®. Results Patients who switched AP ingredient had the highest overall instability at the point of switch and the second steepest decline in instability following switch. Those who changed to a long-acting injectable AP showed the second highest level of instability and the steepest decrease in instability following the change. Patients augmented with a second AP showed the smallest increase in instability, up to the switch. Results were directionally consistent between the two data sets. Conclusion Using claims-based proxy measures to estimate instability may provide a viable method to better understand Sz patient markers of change in disease severity. Also, such proxies could be used to identify those individuals with the greatest need for treatment modification preventing relapse, improving patient outcomes, and reducing the burden of illness. PMID:29765242

An empirical comparison of the measurement properties of the EQ-5D-5L, DEMQOL-U and DEMQOL-Proxy-U for older people in residential care.

PubMed

Easton, Tiffany; Milte, Rachel; Crotty, Maria; Ratcliffe, Julie

2018-05-01

This study aimed to empirically compare the measurement properties of self-reported and proxy-reported (in cases of severe cognitive impairment) generic (EQ-5D-5L) and condition-specific (DEMQOL-U and DEMQOL-Proxy-U) preference-based HRQoL instruments in residential care, where the population is characterised by older people with high rates of cognitive impairment, dementia and disability. Participants were recruited from seventeen residential care facilities across four Australian states. One hundred and forty-three participants self-completed the EQ-5D-5L and the DEMQOL-U while three hundred and eight-seven proxy completed (due to the presence of severe dementia) the EQ-5D-5L and DEMQOL-Proxy-U. The convergent validity of the outcome measures and known group validity relative to a series of clinical outcome measures were assessed. Results satisfy convergent validity among the outcome measures. EQ-5D-5L and DEMQOL-U utilities were found to be significantly correlated with each other (p < 0.01) as were EQ-5D-5L and DEMQOL-Proxy-U utilities (p < 0.01). Both self-reported and proxy-reported EQ-5D-5L utilities demonstrated strong known group validity in relation to clinically recognised thresholds of cognition and physical functioning, while in contrast neither DEMQOL-U nor DEMQOL-Proxy-U demonstrated this association. The findings suggest that the EQ-5D-5L, DEMQOL-U and DEMQOL-Proxy-U capture distinct aspects of HRQoL for this population. The measurement and valuation of HRQoL form an essential component of economic evaluation in residential care. However, high levels of cognitive impairment may preclude self-completion for a majority. Further research is needed to determine cognition thresholds beyond which an individual is unable to reliably self-report their own health-related quality of life.

Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites.

PubMed

Faleiro, Frederico Valtuille; Nemésio, André; Loyola, Rafael

2018-06-01

Studies have tested whether model predictions based on species' occurrence can predict the spatial pattern of population abundance. The relationship between predicted environmental suitability and population abundance varies in shape, strength and predictive power. However, little attention has been paid to the congruence in predictions of different models fed with occurrence or abundance data, in particular when comparing metrics of climate change impact. Here, we used the ecological niche modeling fit with presence-absence and abundance data of orchid bees to predict the effect of climate change on species and assembly level distribution patterns. In addition, we assessed whether predictions of presence-absence models can be used as a proxy to abundance patterns. We obtained georeferenced abundance data of orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Euglossina) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Sampling method consisted in attracting male orchid bees to baits of at least five different aromatic compounds and collecting the individuals with entomological nets or bait traps. We limited abundance data to those obtained by similar standard sampling protocol to avoid bias in abundance estimation. We used boosted regression trees to model ecological niches and project them into six climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways. We found that models based on species occurrences worked as a proxy for changes in population abundance when the output of the models were continuous; results were very different when outputs were discretized to binary predictions. We found an overall trend of diminishing abundance in the future, but a clear retention of climatically suitable sites too. Furthermore, geographic distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very short, although it embraces great variation. Changes in species richness and turnover would be concentrated in western and southern Atlantic Forest. Our findings offer support to the ongoing debate of suitability-abundance models and can be used to support spatial conservation prioritization schemes and species triage in Atlantic Forest. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Compositing climate change vulnerability of a Mediterranean region using spatiotemporally dynamic proxies for ecological and socioeconomic impacts and stabilities.

PubMed

Demirkesen, Ali Can; Evrendilek, Fatih

2017-01-01

The study presents a new methodology to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics of climate change vulnerability at a regional scale adopting a new conceptual model of vulnerability as a function of climate change impacts, ecological stability, and socioeconomic stability. Spatiotemporal trends of equally weighted proxy variables for the three vulnerability components were generated to develop a composite climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) for a Mediterranean region of Turkey combining Landsat time series data, digital elevation model (DEM)-derived data, ordinary kriging, and geographical information system. Climate change impact was based on spatiotemporal trends of August land surface temperature (LST) between 1987 and 2016. Ecological stability was based on DEM, slope, aspect, and spatiotemporal trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), while socioeconomic stability was quantified as a function of spatiotemporal trends of land cover, population density, per capita gross domestic product, and illiteracy. The zones ranked on the five classes of no-to-extreme vulnerability were identified where highly and moderately vulnerable lands covered 0.02% (12 km 2 ) and 11.8% (6374 km 2 ) of the study region, respectively, mostly occurring in the interior central part. The adoption of this composite CCVI approach is expected to lead to spatiotemporally dynamic policy recommendations towards sustainability and tailor preventive and mitigative measures to locally specific characteristics of coupled ecological-socioeconomic systems.

A School-Level Proxy Measure for Individual-level Poverty Using School-Level Eligibility for Free and Reduced-Price Meals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Day, Sophia E.; Hinterland, Kinjia; Myers, Christa; Gupta, Leena; Harris, Tiffany G.; Konty, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

Background: Socioeconomic status (SES) impacts health outcomes. The Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), like many school-based data sources, lacks individual-level poverty information. We propose using school-level percentages of student eligibility for free/reduced-price meals (%FRPM) as a proxy for individual-level poverty. Methods: Using the New…

Uranium in larval shells as a barometer of molluscan ocean acidification exposure.

PubMed

Frieder, Christina A; Gonzalez, Jennifer P; Levin, Lisa A

2014-06-03

As the ocean undergoes acidification, marine organisms will become increasingly exposed to reduced pH, yet variability in many coastal settings complicates our ability to accurately estimate pH exposure for those organisms that are difficult to track. Here we present shell-based geochemical proxies that reflect pH exposure from laboratory and field settings in larvae of the mussels Mytilus californianus and M. galloprovincialis. Laboratory-based proxies were generated from shells precipitated at pH 7.51 to 8.04. U/Ca, Sr/Ca, and multielemental signatures represented as principal components varied with pH for both species. Of these, U/Ca was the best predictor of pH and did not vary with larval size, with semidiurnal pH fluctuations, or with oxygen concentration. Field applications of U/Ca were tested with mussel larvae reared in situ at both known and unknown pH conditions. Larval shells precipitated in a region of greater upwelling had higher U/Ca, and these U/Ca values corresponded well with the laboratory-derived U/Ca-pH proxy. Retention of the larval shell after settlement in molluscs allows use of this geochemical proxy to assess ocean acidification effects on marine populations.

Family factors in end-of-life decision-making: family conflict and proxy relationship.

PubMed

Parks, Susan Mockus; Winter, Laraine; Santana, Abbie J; Parker, Barbara; Diamond, James J; Rose, Molly; Myers, Ronald E

2011-02-01

Few studies have examined proxy decision-making regarding end-of-life treatment decisions. Proxy accuracy is defined as whether proxy treatment choices are consistent with the expressed wishes of their index elder. The purpose of this study was to examine proxy accuracy in relation to two family factors that may influence proxy accuracy: perceived family conflict and type of elder-proxy relationship. Telephone interviews with 202 community-dwelling elders and their proxy decision makers were conducted including the Life-Support Preferences Questionnaire (LSPQ), and a measure of family conflict, and sociodemographic characteristics, including type of relationship. Elder-proxy accuracy was associated with the type of elder-proxy relationship. Adult children demonstrated the lowest elder-proxy accuracy and spousal proxies the highest elder-proxy accuracy. Elder-proxy accuracy was associated with family conflict. Proxies reporting higher family conflict had lower elder-proxy accuracy. No interaction between family conflict and relationship type was revealed. Spousal proxies were more accurate in their substituted judgment than adult children, and proxies who perceive higher degree of family conflict tended to be less accurate than those with lower family conflict. Health care providers should be aware of these family factors when discussing advance care planning.

High Northern Latitude Insolation Forcing of Tropical Monsoons or Monsoon Forcing of High Northern Latitude Ice Volume?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, W.; Zhou, W.; Cheng, L.; Wu, Z.; Xian, F.; Kong, X.; Cottam, T.; An, Z.; White, L.

2017-12-01

We show that atmospheric 10Be flux is a quantitative proxy for rainfall, and use it to derive a 530Ka-long record of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall from Chinese Loess. Our record strongly resembles the Red Sea paleosea level and LR04 benthic foram δ18O records, with 53% & 45% of its variance reflected in each of these two global ice volume proxies. This suggests EASM intensity is closely coupled to ice volume by some mechanism. At first glance, this seems to support the claim based on strongly correlated Chinese cave δ18O and 65°N summer solar insolation that Asian monsoon intensity is controlled by high northern latitude insolation. Nevertheless, our 10Be-proxy has only 17% common variance with cave δ18O. Furthermore, Chinese cave δ18O records are very poorly correlated with sea-level/global ice volume, conflicting with both our proxy and Milankovitch theory, if interpreted as a monsoon intensity proxy. We argue that cave δ18O is instead a mixing proxy for monsoon moisture derived from (δ18O depleted) Indian vs Pacific monsoon sectors. We suggest both this mixing ratio and EASM intensity are not governed by high northern latitude insolation, but rather by orbital forcing of the low latitude interhemispheric insolation gradient, which mimics the 65°N insolation pattern. We show this gradient regulates the ratio of Asian monsoon outflow to the Indian vs. North Pacific subtropical highs, providing a coupling to both Hadley and Walker circulations. When outflow strengthens in one of these sectors it weakens in the other, regulating the relative strength of the Trade and Westerly winds in each sector. Trade wind coupling to monsoon strength in each sector controls the ISM/Pacific monsoon moisture mixing ratio and EASM intensity, although intensity is also influenced by other factors. This model provides mechanisms by which the monsoons may influence ice volume. Westerlies strength adjacent to the North Pacific Subtropical High strongly regulates transient eddy energy transport to the north polar region. Likewise, the Trades and Westerlies in the Indian Ocean both influence AMOC strength by regulating Agulhas leakage into the Atlantic, or can influence air/sea CO2 fluxes. These mechanisms may all strongly influence northern hemisphere ice volume, begging the question: Where does global climate control originate?

Adolescent self-report and parent proxy-report of health-related quality of life: an analysis of validity and reliability of PedsQL 4.0 among a sample of Malaysian adolescents and their parents.

PubMed

Kaartina, Sanker; Chin, Yit Siew; Fara Wahida, Rezali; Woon, Fui Chee; Hiew, Chu Chien; Zalilah, Mohd Shariff; Mohd Nasir, Mohd Taib

2015-04-08

The Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory Generic Core Scales (PedsQL) 4.0 is a generalized assessment of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) based on adolescent self-report and parent proxy-report. This study aims to determine the construct validity and reliability of PedsQL 4.0 among a sample of Malaysian adolescents and parents. A cross-sectional study was carried out at three selected public schools in the state of Selangor. A total of 379 Malaysian adolescents completed the PedsQL 4.0 adolescent self-report and 218 (55.9%) parents completed the PedsQL 4.0 parent proxy-report. Weight and height of adolescents were measured and BMI-for-age by sex was used to determine their body weight status. There were 50.8% male and 49.2% female adolescents who participated in this study (14.25 ± 1.23 years). The prevalence of overweight and obesity (25.8%) was four times higher than the prevalence of severe thinness and thinness (6.1%). Construct validity was analyzed using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). Based on CFA, adolescent self-report and parent proxy-report met the criteria of convergent validity (factor loading > 0.5, Average Variance Extracted (AVE) > 0.5, Construct Reliability > 0.7) and showed good fit to the data. The adolescent self-report and parent proxy-report exhibited discriminant validity as the AVE values were larger than the R(2) values. Cronbach's alpha coefficients of the adolescent self-report (α = 0.862) and parent proxy-report (α = 0.922) showed these instruments are reliable. Parents perceived the HRQoL of adolescents was poorer compared to the perception of the adolescent themselves (t = 5.92, p < 0.01). There was no significant difference in total HRQoL score between male and female adolescents (t = 0.858, p > 0.05). Parent proxy-report was negatively associated with the adolescents' BMI-for-age (r = -0.152, p < 0.05) whereas no significant association was found between adolescent self-report and BMI-for-age (r = 0.001, p > 0.05). Adolescent self-report and parent proxy-report of the PedsQL 4.0 are valid and reliable to assess HRQoL of Malaysian adolescents. Future studies are recommended to use both adolescent self-report and parent-proxy report of HRQoL as adolescents and parents can provide different perspectives on HRQoL of adolescents.

Late Eocene Hydrological Conditions on the Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feakins, S. J.; Deconto, R. M.; Warny, S.

2013-12-01

The late Eocene to Oligocene transition (EOT) witnessed a major ice advance on Antarctica. Little is known about hydrological conditions in the Antarctic Peninsula during the late Eocene prior to the major ice advance. Here we explore the hydrological conditions with proxy reconstructions from marine sediment core NBP0602A-3C, adjacent to the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, with sediments dated to approximately 35.9 × 1.1 Ma providing a snapshot of conditions prior to the EOT. We combine plant leaf wax hydrogen isotopic evidence paired with previously-published evidence from pollen assemblages from the marine core, and compare to results of climate model experiments. The pollen from late Eocene sediments of NBP0602A-3C indicate a Nothofagidites (southern beech) dominated landscape. In the same sediments, leaf wax hydrogen isotope (δDwax) values average -202×7‰ (1σ, n=22) for the C28 n-alkanoic acid. Based on an estimated net fractionation of -100‰, these values suggest paleoprecipitation δD values on the order of -118×8‰. The similarity between Late Eocene precipitation isotopic reconstructions (with no ice on what was then an island) and in situ modern isotopic values (while ice-covered) is surprising as ice-free conditions should imply warmer temperatures which would normally imply more enriched isotopic values. Convergent isotopic compositions during demonstrably different environments require a dynamical test to evaluate this validity of this isotopic result. In order to test the isotopic response to an expanding Antarctic ice sheet across the EOT, we conducted experiments with an isotope-enabled GCM. We simulated conditions before, during, and after the transition by systematically decreasing carbon dioxide levels from 1000 to 560 ppm while increasing ice volume to represent an ice-free to fully glaciated continent. Model experiments predict changes in vegetation cover from mixed forest to tundra biomes, reductions in austral summer temperature of 5-10 degrees C, reductions in precipitation of only ~0.5 mm/yr, and more negative precipitation δD values by ~25‰, broadly in keeping with proxy evidence. The model results confirm that the dramatic environmental change at the EOT would be represented by a relatively small magnitude isotopic shift in precipitation, at least at the tip of the Antarctic peninsula, where the proxy reconstruction from NBP0602A-3C is located. Isotopes in precipitation over the center of the continent are well known to be sensitive recorders of late Pleistocene environmental change, however longer sedimentary deposits are for the most part not preserved where the largest signals would be recorded. The combination of proxy and model evidence is particularly powerful for establishing robust regional environmental interpretations from single marine core proxy reconstructions, as well as for establishing the most sensitive locations to target for future drilling.

Linking coral river runoff proxies with climate variability, hydrology and land-use in Madagascar catchments.

PubMed

Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Vermaat, Jan E; Bruggemann, J Henrich; Guillaume, Mireille M M; Grove, Craig A; Madin, Joshua S; Mertz-Kraus, Regina; Zinke, Jens

2012-10-01

Understanding the linkages between coastal watersheds and adjacent coral reefs is expected to lead to better coral reef conservation strategies. Our study aims to examine the main predictors of environmental proxies recorded in near shore corals and therefore how linked near shore reefs are to the catchment physical processes. To achieve these, we developed models to simulate hydrology of two watersheds in Madagascar. We examined relationships between environmental proxies derived from massive Porites spp. coral cores (spectral luminescence and barium/calcium ratios), and corresponding time-series (1950-2006) data of hydrology, climate, land use and human population growth. Results suggest regional differences in the main environmental drivers of reef sedimentation: on annual time-scales, precipitation, river flow and sediment load explained the variability in coral proxies of river discharge for the northeast region, while El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and temperature (air and sea surface) were the best predictors in the southwest region. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the identification of a Pliocene time slice for data–model comparison

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, Alan M.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Pickering, Steven J.; Dowsett, Harry J.; McClymont, Erin L.; Prescott, Caroline L.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Hill, Daniel J.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pope, James O.; Valdes, Paul J.

2013-01-01

The characteristics of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP: 3.264–3.025 Ma BP) have been examined using geological proxies and climate models. While there is agreement between models and data, details of regional climate differ. Uncertainties in prescribed forcings and in proxy data limit the utility of the interval to understand the dynamics of a warmer than present climate or evaluate models. This uncertainty comes, in part, from the reconstruction of a time slab rather than a time slice, where forcings required by climate models can be more adequately constrained. Here, we describe the rationale and approach for identifying a time slice(s) for Pliocene environmental reconstruction. A time slice centred on 3.205 Ma BP (3.204–3.207 Ma BP) has been identified as a priority for investigation. It is a warm interval characterized by a negative benthic oxygen isotope excursion (0.21–0.23‰) centred on marine isotope stage KM5c (KM5.3). It occurred during a period of orbital forcing that was very similar to present day. Climate model simulations indicate that proxy temperature estimates are unlikely to be significantly affected by orbital forcing for at least a precession cycle centred on the time slice, with the North Atlantic potentially being an important exception.

On the identification of a Pliocene time slice for data–model comparison

PubMed Central

Haywood, Alan M.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Pickering, Steven J.; Dowsett, Harry J.; McClymont, Erin L.; Prescott, Caroline L.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Hill, Daniel J.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pope, James O.; Valdes, Paul J.

2013-01-01

The characteristics of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP: 3.264–3.025 Ma BP) have been examined using geological proxies and climate models. While there is agreement between models and data, details of regional climate differ. Uncertainties in prescribed forcings and in proxy data limit the utility of the interval to understand the dynamics of a warmer than present climate or evaluate models. This uncertainty comes, in part, from the reconstruction of a time slab rather than a time slice, where forcings required by climate models can be more adequately constrained. Here, we describe the rationale and approach for identifying a time slice(s) for Pliocene environmental reconstruction. A time slice centred on 3.205 Ma BP (3.204–3.207 Ma BP) has been identified as a priority for investigation. It is a warm interval characterized by a negative benthic oxygen isotope excursion (0.21–0.23‰) centred on marine isotope stage KM5c (KM5.3). It occurred during a period of orbital forcing that was very similar to present day. Climate model simulations indicate that proxy temperature estimates are unlikely to be significantly affected by orbital forcing for at least a precession cycle centred on the time slice, with the North Atlantic potentially being an important exception. PMID:24043865

A School-Level Proxy Measure for Individual-Level Poverty Using School-Level Eligibility for Free and Reduced-Price Meals.

PubMed

Day, Sophia E; Hinterland, Kinjia; Myers, Christa; Gupta, Leena; Harris, Tiffany G; Konty, Kevin J

2016-03-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) impacts health outcomes. The Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), like many school-based data sources, lacks individual-level poverty information. We propose using school-level percentages of student eligibility for free/reduced-price meals (%FRPM) as a proxy for individual-level poverty. Using the New York City (NYC) 2009 YRBS, we created school-level poverty quartiles to append to individual YRBS records by ranking schools by %FRPM. We compared this with 2 other school-level poverty measures using students' home and school neighborhood-level poverty and measured the association of these 3 school-level proxies with individual's household income. Last, we evaluated health outcomes by race/ethnicity and poverty to demonstrate the importance of accounting for poverty. The school-level measure that used %FRPM had the strongest association with household income. When the school-level individual poverty proxy was included in illustrative analyses using YRBS data, patterns by poverty within race/ethnicity emerged that were not seen when looking at race/ethnicity alone. Using a poverty measure to analyze school-based data will provide a better understanding of the impact of SES on health outcomes. Based on our evaluation, when individual-level information is not available, we propose using school-level %FRPM, which are publicly available throughout the United States. © 2016, American School Health Association.

An extensible simulation environment and movement metrics for testing walking behavior in agent-based models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paul M. Torrens; Atsushi Nara; Xun Li

2012-01-01

Human movement is a significant ingredient of many social, environmental, and technical systems, yet the importance of movement is often discounted in considering systems complexity. Movement is commonly abstracted in agent-based modeling (which is perhaps the methodological vehicle for modeling complex systems), despite the influence of movement upon information exchange and adaptation in a system. In particular, agent-based models of urban pedestrians often treat movement in proxy form at the expense of faithfully treating movement behavior with realistic agency. There exists little consensus about which method is appropriate for representing movement in agent-based schemes. In this paper, we examine popularly-usedmore » methods to drive movement in agent-based models, first by introducing a methodology that can flexibly handle many representations of movement at many different scales and second, introducing a suite of tools to benchmark agent movement between models and against real-world trajectory data. We find that most popular movement schemes do a relatively poor job of representing movement, but that some schemes may well be 'good enough' for some applications. We also discuss potential avenues for improving the representation of movement in agent-based frameworks.« less

Reconstructing past occupational exposures: how reliable are women's reports of their partner's occupation?

PubMed

Tagiyeva, Nara; Semple, Sean; Devereux, Graham; Sherriff, Andrea; Henderson, John; Elias, Peter; Ayres, Jon G

2011-06-01

Most of the evidence on agreement between self- and proxy-reported occupational data comes from interview-based studies. The authors aimed to examine agreement between women's reports of their partner's occupation and their partner's own description using questionnaire-based data collected as a part of the prospective, population-based Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Information on present occupation was self-reported by women's partners and proxy-reported by women through questionnaires administered at 8 and 21 months after the birth of a child. Job titles were coded to the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC2000) using software developed by the University of Warwick (Computer-Assisted Structured Coding Tool). The accuracy of proxy-report was expressed as percentage agreement and kappa coefficients for four-, three- and two-digit SOC2000 codes obtained in automatic and semiautomatic (manually improved) coding modes. Data from 6016 couples at 8 months and 5232 couples at 21 months postnatally were included in the analyses. The agreement between men's self-reported occupation and women's report of their partner's occupation in fully automatic coding mode at four-, three- and two-digit code level was 65%, 71% and 77% at 8 months and 68%, 73% and 76% at 21 months. The accuracy of agreement was slightly improved by semiautomatic coding of occupations: 73%/73%, 78%/77% and 83%/80% at 8/21 months respectively. While this suggests that women's description of their partners' occupation can be used as a valuable tool in epidemiological research where data from partners are not available, this study revealed no agreement between these young women and their partners at the two-digit level of SOC2000 coding in approximately one in five cases. Proxy reporting of occupation introduces a statistically significant degree of error in classification. The effects of occupational misclassification by proxy reporting in retrospective occupational epidemiological studies based on questionnaire data should be considered.

Comparison of two approaches for measuring household wealth via an asset-based index in rural and peri-urban settings of Hunan province, China

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background There are growing concerns regarding inequities in health, with poverty being an important determinant of health as well as a product of health status. Within the People's Republic of China (P.R. China), disparities in socio-economic position are apparent, with the rural-urban gap of particular concern. Our aim was to compare direct and proxy methods of estimating household wealth in a rural and a peri-urban setting of Hunan province, P.R. China. Methods We collected data on ownership of household durable assets, housing characteristics, and utility and sanitation variables in two village-wide surveys in Hunan province. We employed principal components analysis (PCA) and principal axis factoring (PAF) to generate household asset-based proxy wealth indices. Households were grouped into quartiles, from 'most wealthy' to 'most poor'. We compared the estimated household wealth for each approach. Asset-based proxy wealth indices were compared to those based on self-reported average annual income and savings at the household level. Results Spearman's rank correlation analysis revealed that PCA and PAF yielded similar results, indicating that either approach may be used for estimating household wealth. In both settings investigated, the two indices were significantly associated with self-reported average annual income and combined income and savings, but not with savings alone. However, low correlation coefficients between the proxy and direct measures of wealth indicated that they are not complementary. We found wide disparities in ownership of household durable assets, and utility and sanitation variables, within and between settings. Conclusion PCA and PAF yielded almost identical results and generated robust proxy wealth indices and categories. Pooled data from the rural and peri-urban settings highlighted structural differences in wealth, most likely a result of localized urbanization and modernization. Further research is needed to improve measurements of wealth in low-income and transitional country contexts. PMID:20813070

Apparatus and method for interaction phenomena with world modules in data-flow-based simulation

DOEpatents

Xavier, Patrick G [Albuquerque, NM; Gottlieb, Eric J [Corrales, NM; McDonald, Michael J [Albuquerque, NM; Oppel, III, Fred J.

2006-08-01

A method and apparatus accommodate interaction phenomenon in a data-flow-based simulation of a system of elements, by establishing meta-modules to simulate system elements and by establishing world modules associated with interaction phenomena. World modules are associated with proxy modules from a group of meta-modules associated with one of the interaction phenomenon. The world modules include a communication world, a sensor world, a mobility world, and a contact world. World modules can be further associated with other world modules if necessary. Interaction phenomenon are simulated in corresponding world modules by accessing member functions in the associated group of proxy modules. Proxy modules can be dynamically allocated at a desired point in the simulation to accommodate the addition of elements in the system of elements such as a system of robots, a system of communication terminals, or a system of vehicles, being simulated.

Validation of a short-term shoreline evolution model and coastal risk management implications. The case of the NW Portuguese coast (Ovar-Marinha Grande)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenci, Luca; Giuseppina Persichillo, Maria; Disperati, Leonardo; Oliveira, Eduardo R.; de Fátima Lopes Alves, Maria; Boni, Giorgio; Pulvirenti, Luca; Phillips, Mike

2015-04-01

Coastal zones are fragile and dynamic environments where environmental, economic and social aspects are interconnected. While these areas are often highly urbanised, they are especially vulnerable to natural hazards (e.g. storms, floods, erosion, storm surges). Hence, high risk affects people and goods in several coastal zones throughout the world. The recent storms that hit the European coasts (Hercules, Christian and Stephanie, among others) showed the high vulnerability of these territories. Integrated Coastal Management (ICM) deals with the sustainable development of coastal zones by taking into account the different aspects that affect them, including risks adaptation and mitigation. Accurate mapping of shoreline position through time and models to predict shoreline evolution play a fundamental role for coastal zone risk management. In this context, spaceborne remote sensing is fundamental because it provides synoptic and multitemporal information that allow the extraction of shorelines' proxies. These are stable coastal features (e.g. the vegetation lines, the foredune toe, etc.) that can be mapped instead of the proper shoreline, which is an extremely dynamic boundary. The use of different proxies may provide different evolutionary patterns for the same study area; therefore it is important to assess which is the most suitable, given the environmental characteristics of a specific area. In Portugal, the coastal stretch between Ovar and Marinha Grande is one of the greatest national challenges in terms of integrated management of resources and risks. This area is characterised by intense erosive processes that largely exceed the shoreline's retreat predictions made in the first Coastal Zone Management Plan, developed in 2000. The aim of this work was to assess the accuracy of a new model of shoreline evolution implemented in 2013 in order to check its robustness for short-term predictions. The method exploited the potentialities of the Landsat archive; selected images, ranging from 1984 to 2011, were processed in order to extract two different vegetation-related proxies (i.e. the Stable Dune Vegetation Line and the Seaward Dune Vegetation Line) and to quantify their uncertainty. The proxies' rates of advance/retreat were calculated by exploiting the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), an ESRI ArcGIS software application. Subsequently, it was used a recent Landsat 8 image to extract the 2014 observed shoreline proxies' positions. The latter were compared with the ones predicted for the same year adopting the rates previously obtained from DSAS. Statistical analyses based on the differences between predicted and observed values were calculated in order to i) study the coastal evolution of the study area, ii) predict short-term scenarios (3 years), iii) assess the predictions accuracy and iv) identify the more reliable proxy for the study area. Finally, results were interpreted in terms of coastal planning and management perspectives. This was achieved by taking into account the official coastal risk management framework implemented in 2012 to promote a flexible, integrated and adaptive approach. This new generation of Coastal Zone Master Plans had inspired this research because it reinforced the need for mechanisms of risks prevention and environmental safeguarding.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erickson III, David J

The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. The purpose of the study is to assess whether there are significant benefits from the higher resolution simulation compared to the lower resolution simulation associated with the role of topography. The LGM simulations were forced with modified CLIMAP sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures (SST) reduced by 1 C, ice sheet topography, reduced CO{sub 2}, and 21,000 BP orbital parameters. The high-resolution model capturesmore » modern climate reasonably well, in particular the distribution of heavy precipitation in the tropical Pacific. For the ice age case, surface temperature simulated by the high-resolution model agrees better with those of proxy estimates than does the low-resolution model. Despite the fact that tropical SSTs were only 2.1 C less than the control run, there are many lowland tropical land areas 4-6 C colder than present. Comparison of T170 model results with the best constrained proxy temperature estimates (noble gas concentrations in groundwater) now yield no significant differences between model and observations. There are also significant upland temperature changes in the best resolved tropical mountain belt (the Andes). We provisionally attribute this result in part as resulting from decreased lateral mixing between ocean and land in a model with more model grid cells. A longstanding model-data discrepancy therefore appears to be resolved without invoking any unusual model physics. The response of the Asian summer monsoon can also be more clearly linked to local geography in the high-resolution model than in the low-resolution model; this distinction should enable more confident validation of climate proxy data with the high-resolution model. Elsewhere, an inferred salinity increase in the subtropical North Atlantic may have significant implications for ocean circulation changes during the LGM. A large part of the Amazon and Congo Basins are simulated to be substantially drier in the ice age - consistent with many (but not all) paleo data. These results suggest that there are considerable benefits derived from high-resolution model regarding regional climate responses, and that observationalists can now compare their results with models that resolve geography at a resolution comparable to that which the proxy data represent.« less

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Titov, Vasily V.; Arcas, Diego; Pollitz, Fred F.; Bilek, Susan L.

2007-01-01

Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment models are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake information and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to the observed mean regional and maximum local tsunami runup heights for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami but underestimates mean regional tsunami heights at azimuths in line with the tsunami beaming pattern (e.g., Sri Lanka, Thailand). Standard forecast models developed from subfault discretization of earthquake rupture, in which deep- ocean sea level observations are used to constrain slip, are also tested. Forecast models of this type use tsunami time-series measurements at points in the deep ocean. As a proxy for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a transect of deep-ocean tsunami amplitudes recorded by satellite altimetry is used to constrain slip along four subfaults of the M >9 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake. This proxy model performs well in comparison to observed tsunami wave heights, travel times, and inundation patterns at Banda Aceh. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments models based on end- member estimates for average slip and rupture length (Mw 9.0–9.3) are compared with tsunami observations. Using average slip (low end member) and rupture length (high end member) (Mw 9.14) consistent with many seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversions adequately estimates tsunami runup in most regions, except the extreme runup in the western Aceh province. The high slip that occurred in the southern part of the rupture zone linked to runup in this location is a larger fluctuation than expected from standard stochastic slip models. In addition, excess moment release (∼9%) deduced from geodetic studies in comparison to seismic moment estimates may generate additional tsunami energy, if the exponential time constant of slip is less than approximately 1 hr. Overall, there is significant variation in assessed runup heights caused by quantifiable uncertainty in both first-order source parameters (e.g., rupture length, slip-length scaling) and spatiotemporal complexity of earthquake rupture.

Geostatistical modelling of soil-transmitted helminth infection in Cambodia: do socioeconomic factors improve predictions?

PubMed

Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Odermatt, Peter; Biedermann, Patricia; Khieu, Virak; Schär, Fabian; Muth, Sinuon; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

2015-01-01

Soil-transmitted helminth infections are intimately connected with poverty. Yet, there is a paucity of using socioeconomic proxies in spatially explicit risk profiling. We compiled household-level socioeconomic data pertaining to sanitation, drinking-water, education and nutrition from readily available Demographic and Health Surveys, Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and World Health Surveys for Cambodia and aggregated the data at village level. We conducted a systematic review to identify parasitological surveys and made every effort possible to extract, georeference and upload the data in the open source Global Neglected Tropical Diseases database. Bayesian geostatistical models were employed to spatially align the village-aggregated socioeconomic predictors with the soil-transmitted helminth infection data. The risk of soil-transmitted helminth infection was predicted at a grid of 1×1km covering Cambodia. Additionally, two separate individual-level spatial analyses were carried out, for Takeo and Preah Vihear provinces, to assess and quantify the association between soil-transmitted helminth infection and socioeconomic indicators at an individual level. Overall, we obtained socioeconomic proxies from 1624 locations across the country. Surveys focussing on soil-transmitted helminth infections were extracted from 16 sources reporting data from 238 unique locations. We found that the risk of soil-transmitted helminth infection from 2000 onwards was considerably lower than in surveys conducted earlier. Population-adjusted prevalences for school-aged children from 2000 onwards were 28.7% for hookworm, 1.5% for Ascaris lumbricoides and 0.9% for Trichuris trichiura. Surprisingly, at the country-wide analyses, we did not find any significant association between soil-transmitted helminth infection and village-aggregated socioeconomic proxies. Based also on the individual-level analyses we conclude that socioeconomic proxies might not be good predictors at an aggregated large-scale analysis due to their large between- and within-village heterogeneity. Specific information of both the infection risk and potential predictors might be needed to obtain any existing association. The presented soil-transmitted helminth infection risk estimates for Cambodia can be used for guiding and evaluating control and elimination efforts. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Niklas; Goswami, Bedartha; Ghil, Michael

2017-09-01

Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records - such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings - as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5-52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval.

A New Quantum Proxy Multi-signature Scheme Using Maximally Entangled Seven-Qubit States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Hai-Jing; Zhang, Jia-Fu; Liu, Jian; Li, Zeng-You

2016-02-01

In this paper, we propose a new secure quantum proxy multi-signature scheme using seven-qubit entangled quantum state as quantum channels, which may have applications in e-payment system, e-government, e-business, etc. This scheme is based on controlled quantum teleportation. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to guarantee its anonymity, verifiability, traceability, unforgetability and undeniability.

Climate Change, Growth, and Poverty in Ethiopia

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

agricultural effects of global warming, reflecting their disadvantaged geographic location Higher evaporation and reduced soil moisture can damage crops...Ringler (2007) 5 Temperature, radiation, rainfall, soil moisture , and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration are important variables that can proxy...iii) rainfall can affect other proxies of climate change in the literature such as soil moisture 6 This is based on FAOstat database 7 According to

Evidence for ice-free summers in the late Miocene central Arctic Ocean

PubMed Central

Stein, Ruediger; Fahl, Kirsten; Schreck, Michael; Knorr, Gregor; Niessen, Frank; Forwick, Matthias; Gebhardt, Catalina; Jensen, Laura; Kaminski, Michael; Kopf, Achim; Matthiessen, Jens; Jokat, Wilfried; Lohmann, Gerrit

2016-01-01

Although the permanently to seasonally ice-covered Arctic Ocean is a unique and sensitive component in the Earth's climate system, the knowledge of its long-term climate history remains very limited due to the restricted number of pre-Quaternary sedimentary records. During Polarstern Expedition PS87/2014, we discovered multiple submarine landslides along Lomonosov Ridge. Removal of younger sediments from steep headwalls has led to exhumation of Miocene sediments close to the seafloor. Here we document the presence of IP25 as a proxy for spring sea-ice cover and alkenone-based summer sea-surface temperatures >4 °C that support a seasonal sea-ice cover with an ice-free summer season being predominant during the late Miocene in the central Arctic Ocean. A comparison of our proxy data with Miocene climate simulations seems to favour either relatively high late Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations and/or a weak sensitivity of the model to simulate the magnitude of high-latitude warming in a warmer than modern climate. PMID:27041737

Cosmogenic 36Cl in karst waters: Quantifying contributions from atmospheric and bedrock sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, V. E.; McDermott, F.

2009-12-01

Improved reconstructions of cosmogenic isotope production through time are crucial to understand past solar variability. As a preliminary step to derive atmospheric 36Cl/Cl solar proxy time-series from speleothems, we quantify 36Cl sources in cave dripwaters. Atmospheric 36Cl fallout rates are a potential proxy for solar output; however extraneous 36Cl derived from in-situ production in cave host-rocks could complicate the solar signal. Results from numerical modeling and preliminary geochemical data presented here show that the atmospheric 36Cl source dominates in many, but not all cave dripwaters. At favorable low elevation, mid-latitude sites, 36Cl based speleothem solar irradiance reconstructions could extend back to 500 ka, with a possible centennial scale temporal resolution. This would represent a marginal improvement in resolution compared with existing polar ice core records, with the added advantages of a wider geographic range, independent U-series constrained chronology, and the potential for contemporaneous climate signals within the same speleothem material.

Measuring end-of-life care outcomes prospectively.

PubMed

Steinhauser, Karen E

2005-01-01

This paper discusses the state of the science in prospective measurement in end-of-life research and identifies particular areas for focused attention. Topics include defining the scope of inquiry, evaluating experiences of patients too ill to communicate, the role of proxy and family response, measurement sensitivity to change, the role of theory in guiding measurement efforts, evaluating relationships between domains of end-of-life experience, and measurement of cultural comprehensiveness. The state of the sciences calls for future research to (1) conduct longitudinal studies to capture transitions in end-of-life trajectories; (2) evaluate the quality of proxy reporting as it varies by rater relationship, domain, and over time; (3) use state-of-the art psychometric and longitudinal techniques to validate measures and to assess sensitivity to change; (4) develop further and test conceptual models of the experience of dying; (5) study the inter-relatedness of multiple dimensions of end-of-life trajectories; (6) compile updated information evaluating available measurement tools; and (7) conduct population- based research with attention to ethnic and age diversity.

Novel Hydraulic Vulnerability Proxies for a Boreal Conifer Species Reveal That Opportunists May Have Lower Survival Prospects under Extreme Climatic Events.

PubMed

Rosner, Sabine; Světlík, Jan; Andreassen, Kjell; Børja, Isabella; Dalsgaard, Lise; Evans, Robert; Luss, Saskia; Tveito, Ole E; Solberg, Svein

2016-01-01

Top dieback in 40-60 years old forest stands of Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] in southern Norway is supposed to be associated with climatic extremes. Our intention was to learn more about the processes related to top dieback and in particular about the plasticity of possible predisposing factors. We aimed at (i) developing proxies for P 50 based on anatomical data assessed by SilviScan technology and (ii) testing these proxies for their plasticity regarding climate, in order to (iii) analyze annual variations of hydraulic proxies of healthy looking trees and trees with top dieback upon their impact on tree survival. At two sites we selected 10 tree pairs, i.e., one healthy looking tree and one tree with visual signs of dieback such as dry tops, needle shortening and needle yellowing (n = 40 trees). Vulnerability to cavitation (P 50) of the main trunk was assessed in a selected sample set (n = 19) and we thereafter applied SilviScan technology to measure cell dimensions (lumen (b) and cell wall thickness (t)) in these specimen and in all 40 trees in tree rings formed between 1990 and 2010. In a first analysis step, we searched for anatomical proxies for P 50. The set of potential proxies included hydraulic lumen diameters and wall reinforcement parameters based on mean, radial, and tangential tracheid diameters. The conduit wall reinforcement based on tangential hydraulic lumen diameters ((t/b ht)(2)) was the best estimate for P 50. It was thus possible to relate climatic extremes to the potential vulnerability of single annual rings. Trees with top dieback had significantly lower (t/b ht)(2) and wider tangential (hydraulic) lumen diameters some years before a period of water deficit (2005-2006). Radial (hydraulic) lumen diameters showed however no significant differences between both tree groups. (t/b ht)(2) was influenced by annual climate variability; strongest correlations were found with precipitation in September of the previous growing season: high precipitation in previous September resulted in more vulnerable annual rings in the next season. The results are discussed with respect to an "opportunistic behavior" and genetic predisposition to drought sensitivity.

Water and carbon stable isotope records from natural archives: a new database and interactive online platform for data browsing, visualizing and downloading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolliet, Timothé; Brockmann, Patrick; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Bassinot, Franck; Daux, Valérie; Genty, Dominique; Landais, Amaelle; Lavrieux, Marlène; Michel, Elisabeth; Ortega, Pablo; Risi, Camille; Roche, Didier M.; Vimeux, Françoise; Waelbroeck, Claire

2016-08-01

Past climate is an important benchmark to assess the ability of climate models to simulate key processes and feedbacks. Numerous proxy records exist for stable isotopes of water and/or carbon, which are also implemented inside the components of a growing number of Earth system model. Model-data comparisons can help to constrain the uncertainties associated with transfer functions. This motivates the need of producing a comprehensive compilation of different proxy sources. We have put together a global database of proxy records of oxygen (δ18O), hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ13C) stable isotopes from different archives: ocean and lake sediments, corals, ice cores, speleothems and tree-ring cellulose. Source records were obtained from the georeferenced open access PANGAEA and NOAA libraries, complemented by additional data obtained from a literature survey. About 3000 source records were screened for chronological information and temporal resolution of proxy records. Altogether, this database consists of hundreds of dated δ18O, δ13C and δD records in a standardized simple text format, complemented with a metadata Excel catalog. A quality control flag was implemented to describe age markers and inform on chronological uncertainty. This compilation effort highlights the need to homogenize and structure the format of datasets and chronological information as well as enhance the distribution of published datasets that are currently highly fragmented and scattered. We also provide an online portal based on the records included in this database with an intuitive and interactive platform (http://climateproxiesfinder.ipsl.fr/), allowing one to easily select, visualize and download subsets of the homogeneously formatted records that constitute this database, following a choice of search criteria, and to upload new datasets. In the last part, we illustrate the type of application allowed by our database by comparing several key periods highly investigated by the paleoclimate community. For coherency with the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), we focus on records spanning the past 200 years, the mid-Holocene (MH, 5.5-6.5 ka; calendar kiloyears before 1950), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 19-23 ka), and those spanning the last interglacial period (LIG, 115-130 ka). Basic statistics have been applied to characterize anomalies between these different periods. Most changes from the MH to present day and from LIG to MH appear statistically insignificant. Significant global differences are reported from LGM to MH with regional discrepancies in signals from different archives and complex patterns.

Hydrologic response of the Crow Wing Watershed, Minnesota, to mid-Holocene climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, M.; Roy, P.; Wright, H.; Gutowski, W.; Ito, E.; Winter, T.; Rosenberry, D.; Cohen, D.

2007-01-01

In this study, we have integrated a suite of Holocene paleoclimatic proxies with mathematical modeling in an attempt to obtain a comprehensive picture of how watersheds respond to past climate change. A three-dimensional surface-water-groundwater model was developed to assess the effects of mid-Holocene climate change on water resources within the Crow Wing Watershed, Upper Mississippi Basin in north central Minnesota. The model was first calibrated to a 50 yr historical record of average annual surface-water discharge, monthly groundwater levels, and lake-level fluctuations. The model was able to reproduce reasonably well long-term historical records (1949-1999) of water-table and lake-level fluctuations across the watershed as well as stream discharge near the watershed outlet. The calibrated model was then used to reproduce paleogroundwater and lake levels using climate reconstructions based on pollen-transfer functions from Williams Lake just outside the watershed. Computed declines in mid-Holocene lake levels for two lakes at opposite ends of the watershed were between 6 and 18 m. Simulated streamflow near the outlet of the watershed decreased to 70% of modern average annual discharge after ???200 yr. The area covered by wetlands for the entire watershed was reduced by ???16%. The mid-Holocene hydrologic changes indicated by these model results and corroborated by several lake-core records across the Crow Wing Watershed may serve as a useful proxy of the hydrologic response to future warm, dry climatic forecasts (ca. 2050) made by some atmospheric general-circulation models for the glaciated Midwestern United States. ?? 2007 Geological Society of America.

Chasing Neoproterozoic Atmospheric Oxygen Ghosts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjerrum, C. J.; Canfield, D. E.; Dahl, T. W.

2016-12-01

Increasing atmospheric oxygen has been considered a necessary condition for the evolution of animal life for over half a century. While direct proxies for atmospheric oxygen are difficult to obtain, a number of indirect proxies have been giving us a ghost image of rising atmospheric oxygen at the close of the Precambrian. In this context, redox sensitive elements and isotopes represent the hallmark for a significant reduction in anoxic areas of the world ocean, implicating a significant rise of atmospheric oxygen during the Neoproterozoic. Here, we test to what degree redox sensitive elements in ancient marine sediments are proxies of atmospheric oxygen. We model the redox-chemical evolution of the shelf seas and ocean using a combination of 3D high resolution shelf sea models and a simpler global ocean biogeochemical model including climate weathering feedbacks, a free sea level and parameterized icecaps. We find that ecosystem evolution would have resulted in reorganization of the nutrient and redox balance of the shelf-ocean system causing a significant increase in oxygenated areas that permitted a boosting of trace metal concentrations in the remaining anoxic areas. While this reorganization takes place there is limited net change in the modelled atmospheric oxygen, warning us against interpreting changing trace metal concentrations and isotopes as reflecting a rise in atmospheric oxygen.

Carbonic Anhydrase, Calcification Dynamics and Stable Isotope Vital Effects: Deep Sea Corals and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S.; Gagnon, A. C.; Adkins, J. F.

2017-12-01

The stable isotope compositions of biogenic carbonates have been used for paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic reconstructions for decades, and produced some of the most iconic records in the field. However, we still lack a fully mechanistic understanding of the stable isotope proxies, especially the biological overprint on the environmental signals termed "vital effects". A ubiquitous feature of stable isotope vital effects in marine calcifying organisms is a strong correlation between δ18O and δ13C in a range of values that are depleted from equilibrium. Two mechanisms have been proposed to explain this correlation, one based on kinetic isotope effects during CO2(aq)-HCO3- inter-conversion, the other based on equilibrium isotope exchange during pH dependent speciation of the dissolved inorganic carbon pool. Neither mechanism explains all the stable isotope features observed in biogenic carbonates. Here we present a fully kinetic model of biomineralization and its isotope effects using deep sea corals as a test organism. A key component of our model is the consideration of the enzyme carbonic anhydrase in catalyzing the CO2(aq)-HCO3- inter-conversion reactions in the extracellular calcifying fluid (ECF). We find that the amount of carbonic anhydrase not only modulates the carbonate chemistry of the calcifying fluid, but also helps explain the slope of the δ18O-δ13C correlation. With this model, we are not only able to fit deep sea coral data, but also explain the stable isotope vital effects of other calcifying organisms. This fully kinetic model of stable isotope vital effects and the underlying calcification dynamics may also help us better understand mechanisms of other paleoceanographic tracers in biogenic carbonates, including boron isotopes and trace metal proxies.

Arctic Ocean Cyclostratigraphy: An Alternative to Marine Oxygen Isotope curves as measures of Cryospheric and Sea-Level History

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronin, T. M.; Marzen, R.; O'Regan, M.; Dwyer, G. S.

2016-12-01

The stable isotope compositions of biogenic carbonates have been used for paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic reconstructions for decades, and produced some of the most iconic records in the field. However, we still lack a fully mechanistic understanding of the stable isotope proxies, especially the biological overprint on the environmental signals termed "vital effects". A ubiquitous feature of stable isotope vital effects in marine calcifying organisms is a strong correlation between δ18O and δ13C in a range of values that are depleted from equilibrium. Two mechanisms have been proposed to explain this correlation, one based on kinetic isotope effects during CO2(aq)-HCO3- inter-conversion, the other based on equilibrium isotope exchange during pH dependent speciation of the dissolved inorganic carbon pool. Neither mechanism explains all the stable isotope features observed in biogenic carbonates. Here we present a fully kinetic model of biomineralization and its isotope effects using deep sea corals as a test organism. A key component of our model is the consideration of the enzyme carbonic anhydrase in catalyzing the CO2(aq)-HCO3- inter-conversion reactions in the extracellular calcifying fluid (ECF). We find that the amount of carbonic anhydrase not only modulates the carbonate chemistry of the calcifying fluid, but also helps explain the slope of the δ18O-δ13C correlation. With this model, we are not only able to fit deep sea coral data, but also explain the stable isotope vital effects of other calcifying organisms. This fully kinetic model of stable isotope vital effects and the underlying calcification dynamics may also help us better understand mechanisms of other paleoceanographic tracers in biogenic carbonates, including boron isotopes and trace metal proxies.

Advective transport in heterogeneous aquifers: Are proxy models predictive?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiori, A.; Zarlenga, A.; Gotovac, H.; Jankovic, I.; Volpi, E.; Cvetkovic, V.; Dagan, G.

2015-12-01

We examine the prediction capability of two approximate models (Multi-Rate Mass Transfer (MRMT) and Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW)) of non-Fickian transport, by comparison with accurate 2-D and 3-D numerical simulations. Both nonlocal in time approaches circumvent the need to solve the flow and transport equations by using proxy models to advection, providing the breakthrough curves (BTC) at control planes at any x, depending on a vector of five unknown parameters. Although underlain by different mechanisms, the two models have an identical structure in the Laplace Transform domain and have the Markovian property of independent transitions. We show that also the numerical BTCs enjoy the Markovian property. Following the procedure recommended in the literature, along a practitioner perspective, we first calibrate the parameters values by a best fit with the numerical BTC at a control plane at x1, close to the injection plane, and subsequently use it for prediction at further control planes for a few values of σY2≤8. Due to a similar structure and Markovian property, the two methods perform equally well in matching the numerical BTC. The identified parameters are generally not unique, making their identification somewhat arbitrary. The inverse Gaussian model and the recently developed Multi-Indicator Model (MIM), which does not require any fitting as it relates the BTC to the permeability structure, are also discussed. The application of the proxy models for prediction requires carrying out transport field tests of large plumes for a long duration.

A Thousand Frames in Just a Few Words: Lingual Description of Videos through Latent Topics and Sparse Object Stitching (Open Access)

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-03

the Stanford NLP Suite∗ to create an- notated dictionaries based on word morphologies ; the human descriptions provide the input. The predicted...keywords from the low level topic models are labeled through these dictionaries. For more than two POS for the same morphology , we prefer verbs, but other...redundancy particularly retaining subjects like “man,” “woman” etc. and verb morphologies (which otherwise stem to the same prefix) as proxies for ten

Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, Kira; Trachsel, Mathias; Telford, Richard J.; Laepple, Thomas

2016-12-01

Reconstructions of summer, winter or annual mean temperatures based on the species composition of bio-indicators such as pollen, foraminifera or chironomids are routinely used in climate model-proxy data comparison studies. Most reconstruction algorithms exploit the joint distribution of modern spatial climate and species distribution for the development of the reconstructions. They rely on the space-for-time substitution and the specific assumption that environmental variables other than those reconstructed are not important or that their relationship with the reconstructed variable(s) should be the same in the past as in the modern spatial calibration dataset. Here we test the implications of this "correlative uniformitarianism" assumption on climate reconstructions in an ideal model world, in which climate and vegetation are known at all times. The alternate reality is a climate simulation of the last 6000 years with dynamic vegetation. Transient changes of plant functional types are considered as surrogate pollen counts and allow us to establish, apply and evaluate transfer functions in the modeled world. We find that in our model experiments the transfer function cross validation r2 is of limited use to identify reconstructible climate variables, as it only relies on the modern spatial climate-vegetation relationship. However, ordination approaches that assess the amount of fossil vegetation variance explained by the reconstructions are promising. We furthermore show that correlations between climate variables in the modern climate-vegetation relationship are systematically extended into the reconstructions. Summer temperatures, the most prominent driving variable for modeled vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere, are accurately reconstructed. However, the amplitude of the model winter and mean annual temperature cooling between the mid-Holocene and present day is overestimated and similar to the summer trend in magnitude. This effect occurs because temporal changes of a dominant climate variable, such as summer temperatures in the model's Arctic, are imprinted on a less important variable, leading to reconstructions biased towards the dominant variable's trends. Our results, although based on a model vegetation that is inevitably simpler than reality, indicate that reconstructions of multiple climate variables based on modern spatial bio-indicator datasets should be treated with caution. Expert knowledge on the ecophysiological drivers of the proxies, as well as statistical methods that go beyond the cross validation on modern calibration datasets, are crucial to avoid misinterpretation.

Aggregated GPS tracking of vehicles and its use as a proxy of traffic-related air pollution emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shimon; Bekhor, Shlomo; Yuval; Broday, David M.

2016-10-01

Most air quality models use traffic-related variables as an input. Previous studies estimated nearby vehicular activity through sporadic traffic counts or via traffic assignment models. Both methods have previously produced poor or no data for nights, weekends and holidays. Emerging technologies allow the estimation of traffic through passive monitoring of location-aware devices. Examples of such devices are GPS transceivers installed in vehicles. In this work, we studied traffic volumes that were derived from such data. Additionally, we used these data for estimating ambient nitrogen dioxide concentrations, using a non-linear optimisation model that includes basic dispersion properties. The GPS-derived data show great potential for use as a proxy for pollutant emissions from motor-vehicles.

JMS Proxy and C/C++ Client SDK

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolgast, Paul; Pechkam, Paul

2007-01-01

JMS Proxy and C/C++ Client SDK (JMS signifies "Java messaging service" and "SDK" signifies "software development kit") is a software package for developing interfaces that enable legacy programs (here denoted "clients") written in the C and C++ languages to communicate with each other via a JMS broker. This package consists of two main components: the JMS proxy server component and the client C library SDK component. The JMS proxy server component implements a native Java process that receives and responds to requests from clients. This component can run on any computer that supports Java and a JMS client. The client C library SDK component is used to develop a JMS client program running in each affected C or C++ environment, without need for running a Java virtual machine in the affected computer. A C client program developed by use of this SDK has most of the quality-of-service characteristics of standard Java-based client programs, including the following: Durable subscriptions; Asynchronous message receipt; Such standard JMS message qualities as "TimeToLive," "Message Properties," and "DeliveryMode" (as the quoted terms are defined in previously published JMS documentation); and Automatic reconnection of a JMS proxy to a restarted JMS broker.

NASA SPoRT GOES-R Proving Ground Activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stano, Geoffrey T.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Jedloec, Gary J.

2010-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program is a partner with the GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) helping prepare forecasters understand the unique products to come from the GOES-R instrument suite. SPoRT is working collaboratively with other members of the GOES-R PG team and Algorithm Working Group (AWG) scientists to develop and disseminate a suite of proxy products that address specific forecast problems for the WFOs, Regional and National Support Centers, and other NOAA users. These products draw on SPoRT s expertise with the transition and evaluation of products into operations from the MODIS instrument and the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA). The MODIS instrument serves as an excellent proxy for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) that will be aboard GOES-R. SPoRT has transitioned and evaluated several multi-channel MODIS products. The true and false color products are being used in natural hazard detection by several SPoRT partners to provide better observation of land features, such as fires, smoke plumes, and snow cover. Additionally, many of SPoRT s partners are coastal offices and already benefit from the MODIS sea surface temperature composite. This, along with other surface feature observations will be developed into ABI proxy products for diagnostic use in the forecast process as well as assimilation into forecast models. In addition to the MODIS instrument, the NALMA has proven very valuable to WFOs with access to these total lightning data. These data provide situational awareness and enhanced warning decision making to improve lead times for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. One effort by SPoRT scientists includes a lightning threat product to create short-term model forecasts of lightning activity. Additionally, SPoRT is working with the AWG to create GLM proxy data from several of the ground based total lightning networks, such as the NALMA. The evaluation will focus on the vastly improved spatial coverage of the GLM, but with the trade-off of lower resolution compared to the NALMA. In addition to the above tasks, SPoRT will make these data available in the NWS next generation display software, AWIPS II. This has already been successfully completed for the two basic GLM proxies. SPoRT will use these products to train forecasters on the capabilities of GOES-R and foster feedback to develop additional products, visualizations, and requirements beneficial to end users needs. These developments and feedback will be made available to the GOES-R Proving Ground for the upcoming 2010 Spring Program in Norman, Oklahoma.

Empirical analysis of storm-time energetic electron enhancements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, Thomas Paul, III

This Ph.D. thesis documents a program for studying the appearance of energetic electrons in the Earth's outer radiation belts that is associated with many geomagnetic storms. The dynamic evolution of the electron radiation belts is an outstanding empirical problem in both theoretical space physics and its applied sibling, space weather. The project emphasizes the development of empirical tools and their use in testing several theoretical models of the energization of the electron belts. First, I develop the Statistical Asynchronous Regression technique to provide proxy electron fluxes throughout the parts of the radiation belts explored by geosynchronous and GPS spacecraft. Next, I show that a theoretical adiabatic model can relate the local time asymmetry of the proxy geosynchronous fluxes to the asymmetry of the geomagnetic field. Then, I perform a superposed epoch analysis on the proxy fluxes at local noon to identify magnetospheric and interplanetary precursors of relativistic electron enhancements. Finally, I use statistical and neural network phase space analyses to determine the hourly evolution of flux at a virtual stationary monitor. The dynamic equation quantitatively identifies the importance of different drivers of the electron belts. This project provides empirical constraints on theoretical models of electron acceleration.

Testing the effect of specific socioeconomic factors on the ischemic mortality rate. The case of Greece

PubMed Central

Mouza, AM

2008-01-01

In this paper we present a model to evaluate the effect of certain majors socioeconomic factors (such as alcohol and fat consumption, cigarettes smoking, unemployment rate as a proxy for uncertainty which results frustration, number of passenger cars as a proxy for physical exercise and per capita GDP as a proxy for nutrition quality), to the ischemic mortality rate. Since the existing research works on this field, suffer from the proper model testing, we analytically present all the tests necessary to justify the reliability of the result obtained. For this purpose, after specifying and estimating the model, we applied the specification error test, the linearity, multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity tests, the autocorrelation and stability tests and the ARCH effect test. Finally, we present the aggregate efect of the above socioeconomic factors. In brief, we found that an increase of cigarettes smoked, of fat and alcohol consumption and the number of passenger cars will result to a relevant increase regarding mortality. The latter one is also affected by the changes in unemployment rate. On the other hand, an increase of personal disposable income may negatively affect mortality, by almost the same portion. PMID:18923751

Testing the effect of specific socioeconomic factors on the ischemic mortality rate. The case of Greece.

PubMed

Mouza, A M

2008-01-01

In this paper we present a model to evaluate the effect of certain majors socioeconomic factors (such as alcohol and fat consumption, cigarettes smoking, unemployment rate as a proxy for uncertainty which results frustration, number of passenger cars as a proxy for physical exercise and per capita GDP as a proxy for nutrition quality), to the ischemic mortality rate. Since the existing research works on this field, suffer from the proper model testing, we analytically present all the tests necessary to justify the reliability of the result obtained. For this purpose, after specifying and estimating the model, we applied the specification error test, the linearity, multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity tests, the autocorrelation and stability tests and the ARCH effect test. Finally, we present the aggregate effect of the above socioeconomic factors. In brief, we found that an increase of cigarettes smoked, of fat and alcohol consumption and the number of passenger cars will result to a relevant increase regarding mortality. The latter one is also affected by the changes in unemployment rate. On the other hand, an increase of personal disposable income may negatively affect mortality, by almost the same portion.

Meteoroid Bulk Density and Ceplecha Types

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blaauw, R. C.; Moser, D. E.; Moorhead, A. V.

2017-01-01

Determination of asteroid bulk density is an important aspect of NEO characterization, yet difficult to measure. As a fraction of meteoroids originate from asteroids (including some NEOs), a study of meteoroid bulk densities can potentially provide useful insights into the densities of NEOs and PHOs in lieu of mutual perturbations, satellite, or expensive spacecraft missions. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office characterizes the meteoroid environment for the purpose of spacecraft risk and operations. To accurately determine the risk, a distribution of meteoroid bulk densities are needed. This is not trivial to determine. If the particle survives to the ground the bulk density can be directly measured, however only the most dense particles land on the Earth. The next best approach is to model the meteor's ablation, which is not straightforward. Clear deceleration is necessary to do this and there are discrepancies in results between models. One approach to a distribution of bulk density is to use a measured proxy for the densities, then calibrate the proxy with known densities from meteorite falls, ablation modelling, and other sources. An obvious proxy choice is the Ceplecha type, K(sub B), thought to indicate the strength of a meteoroid. KB is frequented cited as a good proxy for meteoroid densities, but we find it is poorly correlated with density. However, a distinct split by dynamical type was seen with Jovian Tisserand parameter, T(sub J), with meteoroids from Halley Type comets (T(sub J less than 2 ) exhibiting much lower densities than those originating from Jupiter and asteroids (T(sub J greater than 2).

Halo ellipticity of GAMA galaxy groups from KiDS weak lensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Uitert, Edo; Hoekstra, Henk; Joachimi, Benjamin; Schneider, Peter; Bland-Hawthorn, Joss; Choi, Ami; Erben, Thomas; Heymans, Catherine; Hildebrandt, Hendrik; Hopkins, Andrew M.; Klaes, Dominik; Kuijken, Konrad; Nakajima, Reiko; Napolitano, Nicola R.; Schrabback, Tim; Valentijn, Edwin; Viola, Massimo

2017-06-01

We constrain the average halo ellipticity of ˜2600 galaxy groups from the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey, using the weak gravitational lensing signal measured from the overlapping Kilo Degree Survey (KiDS). To do so, we quantify the azimuthal dependence of the stacked lensing signal around seven different proxies for the orientation of the dark matter distribution, as it is a priori unknown which one traces the orientation best. On small scales, the major axis of the brightest group/cluster member (BCG) provides the best proxy, leading to a clear detection of an anisotropic signal. In order to relate that to a halo ellipticity, we have to adopt a model density profile. We derive new expressions for the quadrupole moments of the shear field given an elliptical model surface mass density profile. Modelling the signal with an elliptical Navarro-Frenk-White profile on scales R < 250 kpc, and assuming that the BCG is perfectly aligned with the dark matter, we find an average halo ellipticity of ɛh = 0.38 ± 0.12, in fair agreement with results from cold dark matter only simulations. On larger scales, the lensing signal around the BCGs becomes isotropic and the distribution of group satellites provides a better proxy for the halo's orientation instead, leading to a 3σ-4σ detection of a non-zero halo ellipticity at 250 < R < 750 kpc. Our results suggest that the distribution of stars enclosed within a certain radius forms a good proxy for the orientation of the dark matter within that radius, which has also been observed in hydrodynamical simulations.

High-resolution analysis of upper Miocene lake deposits: Evidence for the influence of Gleissberg-band solar forcing

PubMed Central

Kern, Andrea K.; Harzhauser, Mathias; Soliman, Ali; Piller, Werner E.; Mandic, Oleg

2013-01-01

A high-resolution multi-proxy analysis was conducted on a 1.5-m-long core of Tortonian age (~ 10.5 Ma; Late Miocene) from Austria (Europe). The lake sediments were studied with a 1-cm resolution to detect all small-scale variations based on palynomorphs (pollen and dinoflagellate cysts), ostracod abundance, geochemistry (carbon and sulfur) and geophysics (magnetic susceptibility and natural gamma radiation). Based on an already established age model for a longer interval of the same core, this sequence can be limited to approx. two millennia of Late Miocene time with a resolution of ~ 13.7 years per sample. The previous study documented the presence of solar forcing, which was verified within various proxies on this 1.5-m core by a combination of REDFIT spectra and Gaussian filters. Significant repetitive signals ranged in two discrete intervals corresponding roughly to 55–82 and 110–123 years, fitting well within the lower and upper Gleissberg cycle ranges. Based on these results, the environmental changes along the 2000-year Late Miocene sequence are discussed. No major ecological turnovers are expected in this very short interval. Nonetheless, even within this brief time span, dinoflagellates document rapid changes between oligotrophic and eutrophic conditions, which are frequently coupled with lake stratification and dysoxic bottom waters. These phases prevented ostracods and molluscs from settling and promoted the activity of sulfur bacteria. The pollen record indicates rather stable wetland vegetation with a forested hinterland. Shifts in the pollen spectra can be mainly attributed to variations in transport mechanisms. These are represented by a few phases of fluvial input but mainly by changes in wind intensity and probably also wind direction. Such influence is most likely caused by solar cycles, leading to a change in source area for the input into the lake. Furthermore, these solar-induced variations seem to be modulated by longer solar cycles. The filtered data display comparable patterns and modulations, which seem to be forced by the 1000-year and 1500-year cycles. The 1000-year cycle modulated especially the lake surface proxies, whereas the 1500-year cycle is mainly reflected in hinterland proxies, indicating strong influence on transport mechanisms. PMID:23407808

On the uncertainties associated with using gridded rainfall data as a proxy for observed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tozer, C. R.; Kiem, A. S.; Verdon-Kidd, D. C.

2011-09-01

Gridded rainfall datasets are used in many hydrological and climatological studies, in Australia and elsewhere, including for hydroclimatic forecasting, climate attribution studies and climate model performance assessments. The attraction of the spatial coverage provided by gridded data is clear, particularly in Australia where the spatial and temporal resolution of the rainfall gauge network is sparse. However, the question that must be asked is whether it is suitable to use gridded data as a proxy for observed point data, given that gridded data is inherently "smoothed" and may not necessarily capture the temporal and spatial variability of Australian rainfall which leads to hydroclimatic extremes (i.e. droughts, floods)? This study investigates this question through a statistical analysis of three monthly gridded Australian rainfall datasets - the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) dataset, the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) and the SILO dataset. To demonstrate the hydrological implications of using gridded data as a proxy for gauged data, a rainfall-runoff model is applied to one catchment in South Australia (SA) initially using gridded data as the source of rainfall input and then gauged rainfall data. The results indicate a markedly different runoff response associated with each of the different sources of rainfall data. It should be noted that this study does not seek to identify which gridded dataset is the "best" for Australia, as each gridded data source has its pros and cons, as does gauged or point data. Rather the intention is to quantify differences between various gridded data sources and how they compare with gauged data so that these differences can be considered and accounted for in studies that utilise these gridded datasets. Ultimately, if key decisions are going to be based on the outputs of models that use gridded data, an estimate (or at least an understanding) of the uncertainties relating to the assumptions made in the development of gridded data and how that gridded data compares with reality should be made.

Phanerozoic pCO2 recorded by the plants that used it: refinement, independent validation and multi-proxy comparison of a physiological model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franks, P.; Royer, D. L.; Kowalczyk, J.; Milligan, J.

2016-12-01

CO2 has been described as the most important greenhouse gas in terms of maintaining a habitable climate on Earth. However, pCO2 has not been constant through time and the resulting variability of its forcing has contributed to periodic swings in global climate between warmer and cooler periods. Reliable prediction of the magnitude and effects of future global warming with increasing pCO2 depends on quantifying climate sensitivity to forcing by pCO2, which can only be measured from the record of pCO2 and temperature in Earth's geological past. This has been difficult because of inherent uncertainties, sometimes unquantifiable, in the reconstruction of pCO2 for past geologic periods. Recently a new CO2 proxy was developed based on the principle that photosynthesis by plants is quantitatively dependent on pCO2 (CO2 being the substrate for photosynthesis), with the record of this relationship preserved in the structure and chemistry of plant fossils (Franks et al., 2014, Geophysical Research Letters, 41: 4685-4694). This method has constrained uncertainty to more moderate bounds and eliminated instances of unbounded uncertainty. Here we describe a refinement to one of the input physiological quantities, the present-day ratio of intercellular to ambient CO2 concentration, ci/ca, which improves model accuracy. We also summarise the key findings of an independent validation and multi proxy comparison of the model using fossil plant material from a floristically diverse early Paleocene site which, at 64.5 Ma, was living 1.5 m.y after the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (KPB) mass extinction event. Principal amongst these findings is an upward revision of pCO2 to a median 612 ppm for the early Paleocene, with a corresponding minimum average Earth system sensitivity of 3.8 °C.

Psychometric properties of the Swedish PedsQL, Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 generic core scales.

PubMed

Petersen, Solveig; Hägglöf, Bruno; Stenlund, Hans; Bergström, Erik

2009-09-01

To study the psychometric performance of the Swedish version of the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) 4.0 generic core scales in a general child population in Sweden. PedsQL forms were distributed to 2403 schoolchildren and 888 parents in two different school settings. Reliability and validity was studied for self-reports and proxy reports, full forms and short forms. Confirmatory factor analysis tested the factor structure and multigroup confirmatory factor analysis tested measurement invariance between boys and girls. Test-retest reliability was demonstrated for all scales and internal consistency reliability was shown with alpha value exceeding 0.70 for all scales but one (self-report short form: social functioning). Child-parent agreement was low to moderate. The four-factor structure of the PedsQL and factorial invariance across sex subgroups were confirmed for the self-report forms and for the proxy short form, while model fit indices suggested improvement of several proxy full-form scales. The Swedish PedsQL 4.0 generic core scales are a reliable and valid tool for health-related quality of life (HRQoL) assessment in Swedish child populations. The proxy full form, however, should be used with caution. The study also support continued use of the PedsQL as a four-factor model, capable of revealing meaningful HRQoL differences between boys and girls.

Diagnosing sea ice from the north american multi model ensemble and implications on mid-latitude winter climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elders, Akiko; Pegion, Kathy

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the climate system, moderating the exchange of energy and moisture between the ocean and the atmosphere. An emerging area of research investigates how changes, particularly declines, in sea ice extent (SIE) impact climate in regions local to and remote from the Arctic. Therefore, both observations and model estimates of sea ice become important. This study investigates the skill of sea ice predictions from models participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project. Three of the models in this project provide sea-ice predictions. The ensemble average of these models is used to determine seasonal climate impacts on surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) in remote regions such as the mid-latitudes. It is found that declines in fall SIE are associated with cold temperatures in the mid-latitudes and pressure patterns across the Arctic and mid-latitudes similar to the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). These findings are consistent with other studies that have investigated the relationship between declines in SIE and mid-latitude weather and climate. In an attempt to include additional NMME models for sea-ice predictions, a proxy for SIE is used to estimate ice extent in the remaining models, using sea surface temperature (SST). It is found that SST is a reasonable proxy for SIE estimation when compared to model SIE forecasts and observations. The proxy sea-ice estimates also show similar relationships to mid-latitude temperature and pressure as the actual sea-ice predictions.

The Pliocene to recent history of the Kuroshio and Tsushima Currents: a multi-proxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallagher, Stephen J.; Kitamura, Akihisa; Iryu, Yasufumi; Itaki, Takuya; Koizumi, Itaru; Hoiles, Peter W.

2015-12-01

The Kuroshio Current is a major western boundary current controlled by the North Pacific Gyre. It brings warm subtropical waters from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool to Japan exerting a major control on Asian climate. The Tsushima Current is a Kuroshio offshoot transporting warm water into the Japan Sea. Various proxies are used to determine the paleohistory of these currents. Sedimentological proxies such as reefs, bedforms, sediment source and sorting reveal paleocurrent strength and latitude. Proxies such as coral and mollusc assemblages reveal past shelfal current activity. Microfossil assemblages and organic/inorganic geochemical analyses determine paleo- sea surface temperature and salinity histories. Transportation of tropical palynomorphs and migrations of Indo-Pacific species to Japanese waters also reveal paleocurrent activity. The stratigraphic distribution of these proxies suggests the Kuroshio Current reached its present latitude (35 °N) by ~3 Ma when temperatures were 1 to 2 °C lower than present. At this time a weak Tsushima Current broke through Tsushima Strait entering the Japan Sea. Similar oceanic conditions persisted until ~2 Ma when crustal stretching deepened the Tsushima Strait allowing inflow during every interglacial. The onset of stronger interglacial/glacial cycles ~1 Ma was associated with increased North Pacific Gyre and Kuroshio Current intensity. This triggered Ryukyu Reef expansion when reefs reached their present latitude (~31 °N), thereafter the reef front advanced (~31 °N) and retreated (~25 °N) with each cycle. Foraminiferal proxy data suggests eastward deflection of the Kuroshio Current from its present path at 24 °N into the Pacific Ocean due to East Taiwan Channel restriction during the Last Glacial Maximum. Subsequently Kuroshio flow resumed its present trajectory during the Holocene. Ocean modeling and geochemical proxies show that the Kuroshio Current path may have been similar during glacials and interglacials, however the glacial mode of this current remains controversial. Paleohistorical studies form important analogues for current behavior with future climate change, however, there are insufficient studies at present in the region that may be used for this purpose. Modeling of the response of the Kuroshio Current to future global warming reveals that current velocity may increase by up to 0.3 m/sec associated with a northward migration of the Kuroshio Extension.

Multiple Types of Memory and Everyday Functional Assessment in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Beaver, Jenna

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective Current proxy measures for assessing everyday functioning (e.g., questionnaires, performance-based measures, and direct observation) show discrepancies in their rating of functional status. The present study investigated the relationship between multiple proxy measures of functional status and content memory (i.e., memory for information), temporal order memory, and prospective memory in an older adult sample. Method A total of 197 community-dwelling older adults who did (n = 45) or did not meet (n = 152) criteria for mild cognitive impairment (MCI), completed six different assessments of functional status (two questionnaires, two performance-based tasks, and two direct observation tasks) as well as experimental measures of content memory, prospective memory, and temporal order memory. Results After controlling for demographics and content memory, the temporal order and prospective memory measures explained a significant amount of variance in all proxy functional status measures. When all variables were entered into the regression analyses, content memory and prospective memory were found to be significant predictors of all measures of functional status, whereas temporal order memory was a significant predictor for the questionnaire and direct observation measures, but not performance-based measures. Conclusion The results suggest that direct observation and questionnaire measures may be able to capture components of everyday functioning that require context and temporal sequencing abilities, such as multi-tasking, that are not as well captured in many current laboratory performance-based measures of functional status. Future research should aim to inform the development and use of maximally effective and valid proxy measures of functional ability. PMID:28334170

Improving health care proxy documentation using a web-based interview through a patient portal

PubMed Central

Crotty, Bradley H; Kowaloff, Hollis B; Safran, Charles; Slack, Warner V

2016-01-01

Objective Health care proxy (HCP) documentation is suboptimal. To improve rates of proxy selection and documentation, we sought to develop and evaluate a web-based interview to guide patients in their selection, and to capture their choices in their electronic health record (EHR). Methods We developed and implemented a HCP interview within the patient portal of a large academic health system. We analyzed the experience, together with demographic and clinical factors, of the first 200 patients who used the portal to complete the interview. We invited users to comment about their experience and analyzed their comments using established qualitative methods. Results From January 20, 2015 to March 13, 2015, 139 of the 200 patients who completed the interview submitted their HCP information for their clinician to review in the EHR. These patients had a median age of 57 years (Inter Quartile Range (IQR) 45–67) and most were healthy. The 99 patients who did not previously have HCP information in their EHR were more likely to complete and then submit their information than the 101 patients who previously had a proxy in their health record (odds ratio 2.4, P = .005). Qualitative analysis identified several ways in which the portal-based interview reminded, encouraged, and facilitated patients to complete their HCP. Conclusions Patients found our online interview convenient and helpful in facilitating selection and documentation of an HCP. Our study demonstrates that a web-based interview to collect and share a patient’s HCP information is both feasible and useful. PMID:26568608

Aeolian Dunes: New High-Resolution Archives of Past Wind-Intensity and -Direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindhorst, S.; Betzler, C.

2017-12-01

The understanding of the long-term variability of local wind-fields is most relevant for calibrating climate models and for the prediction of the socio-economic consequences of climate change. Continuous instrumental-based weather observations go back less than two centuries; aeolian dunes, however, contain an archive of past wind-field fluctuations which is basically unread. We present new ways to reconstruct annual to seasonal changes of wind intensity and predominant wind direction from dune-sediment composition and -geometries based on ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data, grain-size analyses and different age-dating approaches. Resulting proxy-based data series on wind are validated against instrumental based weather observations. Our approach can be applied to both recent as well as fossil dunes. Potential applications include the validation of climate models, the reconstruction of past supra-regional wind systems and the monitoring of future shifts in the climate system.

Using a Coupled Lake Model with WRF for Dynamical Downscaling

EPA Science Inventory

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to downscale a coarse reanalysis (National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project reanalysis, hereafter R2) as a proxy for a global climate model (GCM) to examine...

Development of Virtual Resource Based IoT Proxy for Bridging Heterogeneous Web Services in IoT Networks.

PubMed

Jin, Wenquan; Kim, DoHyeun

2018-05-26

The Internet of Things is comprised of heterogeneous devices, applications, and platforms using multiple communication technologies to connect the Internet for providing seamless services ubiquitously. With the requirement of developing Internet of Things products, many protocols, program libraries, frameworks, and standard specifications have been proposed. Therefore, providing a consistent interface to access services from those environments is difficult. Moreover, bridging the existing web services to sensor and actuator networks is also important for providing Internet of Things services in various industry domains. In this paper, an Internet of Things proxy is proposed that is based on virtual resources to bridge heterogeneous web services from the Internet to the Internet of Things network. The proxy enables clients to have transparent access to Internet of Things devices and web services in the network. The proxy is comprised of server and client to forward messages for different communication environments using the virtual resources which include the server for the message sender and the client for the message receiver. We design the proxy for the Open Connectivity Foundation network where the virtual resources are discovered by the clients as Open Connectivity Foundation resources. The virtual resources represent the resources which expose services in the Internet by web service providers. Although the services are provided by web service providers from the Internet, the client can access services using the consistent communication protocol in the Open Connectivity Foundation network. For discovering the resources to access services, the client also uses the consistent discovery interface to discover the Open Connectivity Foundation devices and virtual resources.

Reconstruction of precipitation variability in Estonia since the eighteenth century, inferred from oak and spruce tree rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helama, Samuli; Sohar, Kristina; Läänelaid, Alar; Bijak, Szymon; Jaagus, Jaak

2018-06-01

There is plenty of evidence for intensification of the global hydrological cycle. In Europe, the northern areas are predicted to receive more precipitation in the future and observational evidence suggests a parallel trend over the past decades. As a consequence, it would be essential to place the recent trend in precipitation in the context of proxy-based estimates of reconstructed precipitation variability over the past centuries. Tree rings are frequently used as proxy data for palaeoclimate reconstructions. Here we use deciduous ( Quercus robur) and coniferous ( Picea abies) tree-ring width chronologies from western Estonia to deduce past early-summer (June) precipitation variability since 1771. Statistical model transforming our tree-ring data into estimates of precipitation sums explains 42% of the variance in instrumental variability. Comparisons with products of gridded reconstructions of soil moisture and summer precipitation illustrate robust correlations with soil moisture (Palmer Drought Severity Index), but lowered correlation with summer precipitation estimates prior to mid-nineteenth century, these instabilities possibly reflecting the general uncertainties inherent to early meteorological and proxy data. Reconstructed precipitation variability was negatively correlated to the teleconnection indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavia pattern, on annual to decadal and longer scales. These relationships demonstrate the positive precipitation anomalies to result from increase in zonal inflow and cyclonic activity, the negative anomalies being linked with the high pressure conditions enhanced during the atmospheric blocking episodes. Recently, the instrumental data have demonstrated a remarkable increase in summer (June) precipitation in the study region. Our tree-ring based reconstruction reproduces this trend in the context of precipitation history since eighteenth century and quantifies the unprecedented abundance of June precipitation over the recent years.

A paleoclimate rainfall reconstruction in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia: 1. Evaluation of different paleoclimate archives, rainfall networks, and reconstruction techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Michelle; Kiem, Anthony S.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.

2015-10-01

From ˜1997 to 2009 the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia's largest water catchment and reputed "food bowl," experienced a severe drought termed the "Millennium Drought" or "Big Dry" followed by devastating floods in the austral summers of 2010/2011, 2011/2012, and 2012/2013. The magnitude and severity of these extreme events highlight the limitations associated with assessing hydroclimatic risk based on relatively short instrumental records (˜100 years). An option for extending hydroclimatic records is through the use of paleoclimate records. However, there are few in situ proxies of rainfall or streamflow suitable for assessing hydroclimatic risk in Australia and none are available in the MDB. In this paper, available paleoclimate records are reviewed and those of suitable quality for hydroclimatic risk assessments are used to develop preinstrumental information for the MDB. Three different paleoclimate reconstruction techniques are assessed using two instrumental rainfall networks: (1) corresponding to rainfall at locations where rainfall-sensitive Australian paleoclimate archives currently exist and (2) corresponding to rainfall at locations identified as being optimal for explaining MDB rainfall variability. It is shown that the optimized rainfall network results in a more accurate model of MDB rainfall compared to reconstructions based on rainfall at locations where paleoclimate rainfall proxies currently exist. This highlights the importance of first identifying key locations where existing and as yet unrealized paleoclimate records will be most useful in characterizing variability. These results give crucial insight as to where future investment and research into developing paleoclimate proxies for Australia could be most beneficial, with respect to better understanding instrumental, preinstrumental and potential future variability in the MDB.

ISC-GEM: Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009), III. Re-computed MS and mb, proxy MW, final magnitude composition and completeness assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giacomo, Domenico; Bondár, István; Storchak, Dmitry A.; Engdahl, E. Robert; Bormann, Peter; Harris, James

2015-02-01

This paper outlines the re-computation and compilation of the magnitudes now contained in the final ISC-GEM Reference Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009). The catalogue is available via the ISC website (http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/). The available re-computed MS and mb provided an ideal basis for deriving new conversion relationships to moment magnitude MW. Therefore, rather than using previously published regression models, we derived new empirical relationships using both generalized orthogonal linear and exponential non-linear models to obtain MW proxies from MS and mb. The new models were tested against true values of MW, and the newly derived exponential models were then preferred to the linear ones in computing MW proxies. For the final magnitude composition of the ISC-GEM catalogue, we preferred directly measured MW values as published by the Global CMT project for the period 1976-2009 (plus intermediate-depth earthquakes between 1962 and 1975). In addition, over 1000 publications have been examined to obtain direct seismic moment M0 and, therefore, also MW estimates for 967 large earthquakes during 1900-1978 (Lee and Engdahl, 2015) by various alternative methods to the current GCMT procedure. In all other instances we computed MW proxy values by converting our re-computed MS and mb values into MW, using the newly derived non-linear regression models. The final magnitude composition is an improvement in terms of magnitude homogeneity compared to previous catalogues. The magnitude completeness is not homogeneous over the 110 years covered by the ISC-GEM catalogue. Therefore, seismicity rate estimates may be strongly affected without a careful time window selection. In particular, the ISC-GEM catalogue appears to be complete down to MW 5.6 starting from 1964, whereas for the early instrumental period the completeness varies from ∼7.5 to 6.2. Further time and resources would be necessary to homogenize the magnitude of completeness over the entire catalogue length.

Quantum Proxy Multi-Signature Scheme Using Genuinely Entangled Six Qubits State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Hai-Jing; Wang, Huai-Sheng; Li, Peng-Fei

2013-04-01

A quantum proxy multi-signature scheme is presented based on controlled teleportation. Genuinely entangled six qubits quantum state functions as quantum channel. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement delegation, signature and verification. Quantum key distribution and one-time pad are adopted in our scheme, which could guarantee not only the unconditional security of the scheme but also the anonymity of the messages owner.

Feasibility of high-density climate reconstruction based on Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) collected tree-ring data

Treesearch

R. Justin DeRose; Shih-Yu Wang; John D. Shaw

2013-01-01

This study introduces a novel tree-ring dataset, with unparalleled spatial density, for use as a climate proxy. Ancillary Douglas fir and pinyon pine tree-ring data collected by the U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA data) were subjected to a series of tests to determine their feasibility as climate proxies. First, temporal coherence between...

Comparison of in-situ Electric Field and Radar Derived Parameters for Stratiform Clouds in Central Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bateman, M.; Mach, D.; Lewis, S.; Dye, J.; Defer, E.; Grainger, C.; Willis, P.; Christian, H.; Merceret, F.

2003-12-01

Airborne measurements of electric fields and particle microphysics were made during a field program at NASA's Kennedy Space Center. The aircraft, a Cessna Citation II jet operated by the University of North Dakota, carried six rotating-vane style electric field mills, several microphysics instruments, and thermodynamic instruments. In addition to the aircraft measurements, we also have data from both the Eastern Test Range WSR-74C (Patrick AFB) and the U.S. National Weather Service WSR-88D radars (primarily Melbourne, FL). One specific goal of this program was to try to develop a radar-based rule for estimating the hazard that an in-cloud electric field would present to a vehicle launched into the cloud. Based on past experience, and our desire to quantify the mixed-phase region of the cloud in question, we have assessed several algorithms for integrating radar reflectivity data in and above the mixed-phase region as a proxy for electric field. A successful radar proxy is one that can accurately predict the presence or absence of significant electric fields. We have compared various proxies with the measured in-cloud electric field strength in an attempt to develop a radar rule for assessing launch hazard. Assessment of the best proxy is presented.

Orbital component extraction by time-variant sinusoidal modeling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinnesael, Matthias; Zivanovic, Miroslav; De Vleeschouwer, David; Claeys, Philippe; Schoukens, Johan

2016-04-01

Accurately deciphering periodic variations in paleoclimate proxy signals is essential for cyclostratigraphy. Classical spectral analysis often relies on methods based on the (Fast) Fourier Transformation. This technique has no unique solution separating variations in amplitude and frequency. This characteristic makes it difficult to correctly interpret a proxy's power spectrum or to accurately evaluate simultaneous changes in amplitude and frequency in evolutionary analyses. Here, we circumvent this drawback by using a polynomial approach to estimate instantaneous amplitude and frequency in orbital components. This approach has been proven useful to characterize audio signals (music and speech), which are non-stationary in nature (Zivanovic and Schoukens, 2010, 2012). Paleoclimate proxy signals and audio signals have in nature similar dynamics; the only difference is the frequency relationship between the different components. A harmonic frequency relationship exists in audio signals, whereas this relation is non-harmonic in paleoclimate signals. However, the latter difference is irrelevant for the problem at hand. Using a sliding window approach, the model captures time variations of an orbital component by modulating a stationary sinusoid centered at its mean frequency, with a single polynomial. Hence, the parameters that determine the model are the mean frequency of the orbital component and the polynomial coefficients. The first parameter depends on geologic interpretation, whereas the latter are estimated by means of linear least-squares. As an output, the model provides the orbital component waveform, either in the depth or time domain. Furthermore, it allows for a unique decomposition of the signal into its instantaneous amplitude and frequency. Frequency modulation patterns can be used to reconstruct changes in accumulation rate, whereas amplitude modulation can be used to reconstruct e.g. eccentricity-modulated precession. The time-variant sinusoidal model is applied to well-established Pleistocene benthic isotope records to evaluate its performance. Zivanovic M. and Schoukens J. (2010) On The Polynomial Approximation for Time-Variant Harmonic Signal Modeling. IEEE Transactions On Audio, Speech, and Language Processing vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 458-467. Doi: 10.1109/TASL.2010.2049673. Zivanovic M. and Schoukens J. (2012) Single and Piecewise Polynomials for Modeling of Pitched Sounds. IEEE Transactions On Audio, Speech, and Language Processing vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 1270-1281. Doi: 10.1109/TASL.2011.2174228.

Towards the Determination of Mytilus edulis Food Preferences Using the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) Theory

PubMed Central

Picoche, Coralie; Le Gendre, Romain; Flye-Sainte-Marie, Jonathan; Françoise, Sylvaine; Maheux, Frank; Simon, Benjamin; Gangnery, Aline

2014-01-01

The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, is a commercially important species, with production based on both fisheries and aquaculture. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models have been extensively applied to study its energetics but such applications require a deep understanding of its nutrition, from filtration to assimilation. Being filter feeders, mussels show multiple responses to temporal fluctuations in their food and environment, raising questions that can be investigated by modeling. To provide a better insight into mussel–environment interactions, an experiment was conducted in one of the main French growing zones (Utah Beach, Normandy). Mussel growth was monitored monthly for 18 months, with a large number of environmental descriptors measured in parallel. Food proxies such as chlorophyll a, particulate organic carbon and phytoplankton were also sampled, in addition to non-nutritious particles. High-frequency physical data recording (e.g., water temperature, immersion duration) completed the habitat description. Measures revealed an increase in dry flesh mass during the first year, followed by a high mass loss, which could not be completely explained by the DEB model using raw external signals. We propose two methods that reconstruct food from shell length and dry flesh mass variations. The former depends on the inversion of the growth equation while the latter is based on iterative simulations. Assemblages of food proxies are then related to reconstructed food input, with a special focus on plankton species. A characteristic contribution is attributed to these sources to estimate nutritional values for mussels. M. edulis shows no preference between most plankton life history traits. Selection is based on the size of the ingested particles, which is modified by the volume and social behavior of plankton species. This finding reveals the importance of diet diversity and both passive and active selections, and confirms the need to adjust DEB models to different populations and sites. PMID:25340793

Towards the determination of Mytilus edulis food preferences using the dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory.

PubMed

Picoche, Coralie; Le Gendre, Romain; Flye-Sainte-Marie, Jonathan; Françoise, Sylvaine; Maheux, Frank; Simon, Benjamin; Gangnery, Aline

2014-01-01

The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, is a commercially important species, with production based on both fisheries and aquaculture. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models have been extensively applied to study its energetics but such applications require a deep understanding of its nutrition, from filtration to assimilation. Being filter feeders, mussels show multiple responses to temporal fluctuations in their food and environment, raising questions that can be investigated by modeling. To provide a better insight into mussel-environment interactions, an experiment was conducted in one of the main French growing zones (Utah Beach, Normandy). Mussel growth was monitored monthly for 18 months, with a large number of environmental descriptors measured in parallel. Food proxies such as chlorophyll a, particulate organic carbon and phytoplankton were also sampled, in addition to non-nutritious particles. High-frequency physical data recording (e.g., water temperature, immersion duration) completed the habitat description. Measures revealed an increase in dry flesh mass during the first year, followed by a high mass loss, which could not be completely explained by the DEB model using raw external signals. We propose two methods that reconstruct food from shell length and dry flesh mass variations. The former depends on the inversion of the growth equation while the latter is based on iterative simulations. Assemblages of food proxies are then related to reconstructed food input, with a special focus on plankton species. A characteristic contribution is attributed to these sources to estimate nutritional values for mussels. M. edulis shows no preference between most plankton life history traits. Selection is based on the size of the ingested particles, which is modified by the volume and social behavior of plankton species. This finding reveals the importance of diet diversity and both passive and active selections, and confirms the need to adjust DEB models to different populations and sites.

Final report of “A Detailed Study of the Physical Mechanisms Controlling CO2-Brine Capillary Trapping in the Subsurface” (University of Arizona, DE-SC0006696)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schaap, Marcel G.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) of carbon dioxide emissions generated by production or combustion of fossil fuels is a technologically viable means to reduce the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere and oceans. Using advantages of scale and location, CCS is particularly suitable for large point sources near ubiquitous deep saline aquifers, depleted gas reservoirs, or at production reservoirs for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). In the BES-funded research project, Oregon State University (OSU) carried out capillary trapping experiments with proxy fluids that mimic the properties of the scCO2/brine system under ambient temperatures and pressures, and successfully developed a unique andmore » novel x-ray compatible, high-pressure, elevated temperature setup to study the scCO2/brine system under challenging reservoir conditions. Both methodologies were applied to a variety of porous media, including synthetic (glass bead) and geologic (Bentheimer sandstone) materials. The University of Arizona (UA) developed pore-scale lattice Boltzmann (LB) models which are able to handle the experimental conditions for proxy fluids, as well as the scCO2/brine system, that are capable of simulating permeability in volumes of tens of millions of fluid elements. We reached the following summary findings (main institute indicated): 1. (OSU/UA) To understand capillary trapping in a multiphase fluid-porous medium system, the system must be analyzed from a pore-scale force balance perspective; trapping can be enhanced by manipulating wetting and nonwetting phase fluid properties. 2. (OSU) Pore-scale fluid connectivity and topology has a clear and direct effect on nonwetting phase capillary trapping efficiency. 3. (OSU) Rock type and flow regime also have a pronounced effects on capillary trapping. 4. (OSU/UA) There is a predictable relationship between NWP connectivity and NWP saturation, which allows for development of injection strategies that optimize trapping. The commonly used Land model (Land, 1968) does not predict amount of trapped NWP accurately. 5. (UA) There are ambiguities regarding the segmentation of large-volume gray-scale CT data into pore-volumes suitable for pore-scale modeling. Simulated permeabilities vary by three orders of magnitude and do not resemble observed values very well. Small-volume synchrotron-based CT data (such as produced by OSU) does not suffer significantly from segmentation ambiguities. 6. (UA) A standard properly parameterized Shan-Chen model LB model is useful for simulating porous media with proxy fluids as well as the scCO2/brine system and produces results that are consistent with tomographic observations. 7. (UA) A LB model with fluid-interactions defined by a (modified) Peng-Robinson Equation of State is able to handle the scCO2/brine system with variable solid phase wettability. This model is numerically stable at temperatures between 0 and 250 °C and pressures between 3 and 50 MPa, and produces appropriate densities above the critical point of CO2 and exhibits three-phase separation below. Based on above findings OSU and UA have proposed continued experimentation and pore-scale modeling of the scCO2/brine system. The reported research has extensively covered capillary trapping using proxy fluids, but due to limited beam-time availability we were unable to apply our high-pressure CO2 setup to sufficient variation in fluid properties, and initial scCO2 connectivity. New data will also allow us to test, calibrate and apply our LB models to reservoir conditions beyond those that are currently feasible experimentally. Such experiments and simulations will also allow us to provide information how suitable proxy fluids are for the scCO2/brine system. We believe it would be worthwhile to pursue the following new research questions: 1. What are the fundamental differences in the physics underlying capillary trapping at ambient vs. supercritical conditions? 2. Do newly developed pore-scale trapping interactions and relationships translate to continuum scales? A motivation for these questions was elaborated in “Capillary Trapping of Super-Critical CO2: Linking Pore and Continuum Scales to Verify new Relationships” that was submitted to DOE-BES in 2015.« less

Late Quaternary Upwelling Variations in the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic Ocean as Inferred from Dinoflagellate Cysts, Planktonic Foraminifera, and Organic Carbon Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höll, Christine; Kemle-von Mücke, Sylvia

2000-07-01

Analysis of multiple proxies shows that eastern equatorial Atlantic upwelling was subdued during isotope stage 5.5, more intense during stages 4, 5.2, 5.4, and 6, and most intense early in stage 2. These findings are based on proxy measures from a core site about 600 km southwest of Liberia. The proxies include total organic carbon content, the ratio of peridinoid and oceanic organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst species, accumulation rates of calcareous dinoflagellates, estimates of sea surface paleotemperatures, the difference in stable oxygen isotope composition between two species of planktonic foraminifera that live at different water depths, and the abundance of the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei. Most of these parameters consistently vary directly or inversely with one another. Slight discrepancies between the individual parameters show the usefulness of a multiple proxy approach to reconstruct paleoenvironments. Our data confirm that northern summer insolation strongly influences upwelling in the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean.

Cognitive Reserve in Healthy Aging and Alzheimer's Disease: A Meta-Analysis of fMRI Studies.

PubMed

Colangeli, Stefano; Boccia, Maddalena; Verde, Paola; Guariglia, Paola; Bianchini, Filippo; Piccardi, Laura

2016-08-01

Cognitive reserve (CR) has been defined as the ability to optimize or maximize performance through differential recruitment of brain networks. In the present study, we aimed at providing evidence for a consistent brain network underpinning CR in healthy and pathological aging. To pursue this aim, we performed a coordinate-based meta-analysis of 17 functional magnetic resonance imaging studies on CR proxies in healthy aging, Alzheimer's disease (AD), and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We found that different brain areas were associated with CR proxies in healthy and pathological aging. A wide network of areas, including medial and lateral frontal areas, that is, anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, as well as precuneus, was associated with proxies of CR in healthy elderly patients. The CR proxies in patients with AD and amnesic-MCI were associated with activation in the anterior cingulate cortex. These results were discussed hypothesizing the existence of possible compensatory mechanisms in healthy and pathological aging. © The Author(s) 2016.

Arctic Sea Ice Simulation in the PlioMIP Ensemble

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran; Chan, Wing-Le; Chandler, Mark A.; Contoux, Camille; Kamae, Youichi; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Rosenbloom, Nan A.;

A New Revision of the Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record Incorporates Recent Research into Proxies of Sunspot Darkening and the Sunspot Number Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coddington, O.; Lean, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Baranyi, T.; Snow, M. A.; Kopp, G.; Richard, E. C.; Lindholm, C.

2017-12-01

An operational climate data record (CDR) of total and spectral solar irradiance became available in November 2015 as part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information Climate Data Record Program. The data record, which is updated quarterly, is available from 1610 to the present as yearly-average values and from 1882 to the present as monthly- and daily-averages, with associated time and wavelength-dependent uncertainties. It was developed jointly by the University of Colorado at Boulder's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics and the Naval Research Laboratory, and, together with the source code and supporting documentation, is available at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/. In the Solar Irradiance CDR, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar spectral irradiance (SSI) are estimated from models that determine the changes from quiet Sun conditions arising from bright faculae and dark sunspots on the solar disk. The models are constructed using linear regression of proxies of solar sunspot and facular features with the approximately decade-long irradiance observations from the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment. A new revision of this data record was recently released in an ongoing effort to reduce solar irradiance uncertainties in two ways. First, the sunspot darkening proxy was revised using a new cross calibration of the current sunspot region observations made by the Solar Observing Optical Network with the historical records of the Royal Greenwich Observatory. This implementation affects modeled irradiances from 1882 - 1978. Second, the impact of a revised record of sunspot number by the Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations center on modeled irradiances was assessed. This implementation provides two different reconstructions of historical, yearly-averaged irradiances from 1610-1881. Additionally, we show new, preliminary results that demonstrate improvements in modeled TSI by using Debrecen Photoheliographic sunspot area and location data produced by the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory as the proxy of sunspot darkening. Our results describe comparisons of the modeled TSI and SSI with observational records and with other solar irradiance models.

Uncertainty in Vs30-based site response

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Eric M.; Wald, David J.

2016-01-01

Methods that account for site response range in complexity from simple linear categorical adjustment factors to sophisticated nonlinear constitutive models. Seismic‐hazard analysis usually relies on ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs); within this framework site response is modeled statistically with simplified site parameters that include the time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity to 30 m (VS30) and basin depth parameters. Because VS30 is not known in most locations, it must be interpolated or inferred through secondary information such as geology or topography. In this article, we analyze a subset of stations for which VS30 has been measured to address effects of VS30 proxies on the uncertainty in the ground motions as modeled by GMPEs. The stations we analyze also include multiple recordings, which allow us to compute the repeatable site effects (or empirical amplification factors [EAFs]) from the ground motions. Although all methods exhibit similar bias, the proxy methods only reduce the ground‐motion standard deviations at long periods when compared to GMPEs without a site term, whereas measured VS30 values reduce the standard deviations at all periods. The standard deviation of the ground motions are much lower when the EAFs are used, indicating that future refinements of the site term in GMPEs have the potential to substantially reduce the overall uncertainty in the prediction of ground motions by GMPEs.

Tracking Extra Tropical Cyclones to Explore how the Jet Stream Shifted During The Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrett, H.

2016-12-01

The behavior of the jet stream during the last glacial maximum (LGM 21ka) has been the focus of multiple studies but remains highly debated. Proxy data shows that during this time in the United States, the northwest was drier than modern conditions and the southwest was wetter than modern conditions. To explain this there are two competing hypothesis, one which suggests that the jet stream shifted uniformly south and the other which suggests a stronger jet that split shifting both north and south. For this study we used TECA, to reanalyze model out-put, looking at the frequency and patterns of Extra Tropical Cyclones (ETC's), which have been found to be steered by the jet stream. We used the CCSM4 model based on its agreement with proxy data, and compared data from both the LGM and pre-industrial time periods. Initial results show a dramatic shift of ETC's north by about 10º-15º degrees and a decrease in frequency compared to pre-industrial conditions, coupled with a less pronounced southward shift of 5º-10º degrees.This evidence supports the idea that the jet stream split during the LGM. A stronger understanding of jet stream behavior will help to improve future models and prediction capabilities to prepare for hydro-climate change in drought sensitive areas.

2 H-fractionations during the biosynthesis of carbohydrates and lipids imprint a metabolic signal on the δ2 H values of plant organic compounds.

PubMed

Cormier, Marc-André; Werner, Roland A; Sauer, Peter E; Gröcke, Darren R; Leuenberger, Markus C; Wieloch, Thomas; Schleucher, Jürgen; Kahmen, Ansgar

2018-04-01

Hydrogen (H) isotope ratio (δ 2 H) analyses of plant organic compounds have been applied to assess ecohydrological processes in the environment despite a large part of the δ 2 H variability observed in plant compounds not being fully elucidated. We present a conceptual biochemical model based on empirical H isotope data that we generated in two complementary experiments that clarifies a large part of the unexplained variability in the δ 2 H values of plant organic compounds. The experiments demonstrate that information recorded in the δ 2 H values of plant organic compounds goes beyond hydrological signals and can also contain important information on the carbon and energy metabolism of plants. Our model explains where 2 H-fractionations occur in the biosynthesis of plant organic compounds and how these 2 H-fractionations are tightly coupled to a plant's carbon and energy metabolism. Our model also provides a mechanistic basis to introduce H isotopes in plant organic compounds as a new metabolic proxy for the carbon and energy metabolism of plants and ecosystems. Such a new metabolic proxy has the potential to be applied in a broad range of disciplines, including plant and ecosystem physiology, biogeochemistry and palaeoecology. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Reconstructed and simulated temperature asymmetry between continents in both hemispheres over the last centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goosse, Hugues

2017-03-01

Available proxy-based temperature reconstructions covering the past millennium display contrasted evolutions between the continents. The difference is particularly large between the two hemispheres. When driven by realistic natural and anthropogenic forcings, climate models tend to simulate a more spatially homogenous temperature response. This is associated with a relatively good agreement between model results and reconstructions in the Northern Hemisphere but a low consistency in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, simulations with data assimilations are performed to analyse the causes of this apparent disagreement. It shows that, when the uncertainties are taken into account, states of the climate system compatible with the forcing estimates, the reconstructions and the model physics can be obtained over the past millennium, except for the twentieth century in Antarctica where the simulated warming is always much larger than in the reconstructions. Such states consistent with all sources of information can be achieved even if the uncertainties of the reconstructions are underestimated. Although, well within the range of the proxy-based reconstructions, the temperatures obtained after data assimilation display more similar developments between the hemispheres than in those reconstructions. Ensuring the compatibility does not require to systematically reduce the model response to the forcing or to strongly enhance the model internal variability. From those results, there is thus no reason to suspect that the model is strongly biased in one aspect or another. The constraint imposed by the data assimilation is too low to unambiguously identify the origin of each feature displayed in the reconstructions but, as expected, changes in atmospheric circulation likely played a role in many of them. Furthermore, ocean heat uptake and release as well as oceanic heat transport are key elements to understand the delayed response of the Southern Hemisphere compared to the northern one during some transitions from warmer to colder states or from colder to warmer ones. The last millennium is thus an interesting test period to better understand and quantify the associated mechanisms.

On the Use of Satellite Altimetry to Detect Ocean Circulation's Magnetic Signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saynisch, J.; Irrgang, C.; Thomas, M.

2018-03-01

Oceanic magnetic signals are sensitive to ocean velocity, salinity, and heat content. The detection of respective signals with global satellite magnetometers would pose a very valuable source of information. While tidal magnetic fields are already detected, electromagnetic signals of the ocean circulation still remain unobserved from space. We propose to use satellite altimetry to construct proxy magnetic signals of the ocean circulation. These proxy time series could subsequently be fitted to satellite magnetometer data. The fitted data could be removed from the observations or the fitting constants could be analyzed for physical properties of the ocean, e.g., the heat budget. To test and evaluate this approach, synthetic true and proxy magnetic signals are derived from a global circulation model of the ocean. Both data sets are compared in dependence of location and time scale. We study and report when and where the proxy data describe the true signal sufficiently well. Correlations above 0.6 and explained variances of above 80% can be reported for large parts of the Antarctic ocean, thus explaining the major part of the global, subseasonal magnetic signal.

Proxy functions for turbulent transport optimization of stellarators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rorvig, Mordechai; Hegna, Chris; Mynick, Harry; Xanthopoulos, Pavlos

2012-10-01

The design freedom of toroidal confinement shaping suggests the possibility of optimizing the magnetic geometry for turbulent transport, particularly in stellarators. The framework for implementing such an optimization was recently established [1] using a proxy function as a measure of the ITG induced turbulent transport associated with a given geometry. Working in the framework of local 3-D equilibrium [2], we investigate the theory and implications of such proxy functions by analyzing the linear instability dependence on curvature and local shear, and the associated quasilinear transport estimates. Simple analytic models suggest the beneficial effect of local shear enters through polarization effects, which can be controlled by field torsion in small net current regimes. We test the proxy functions with local, electrostatic gyrokinetics calculations [3] of ITG modes for experimentally motivated local 3-D equilibria.[4pt] [1] H. E. Mynick, N. Pomphrey, and P. Xanthopoulos, Phys. Rev. Lett. 105, 095004 (2010).[0pt] [2] C. C. Hegna, Physics of Plasmas 7, 3921 (2000).[0pt] [3] F. Jenko, W. Dorland, M. Kotschenreuther, and B. N. Rogers, Physical Review Letters 7, 1904 (2000).

Atlantic Ocean Circulation at the Last Glacial Maximum: Inferences from Data and Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

available. Uncertainties in proxies themselves, and in the dating of the proxy records, are generally lower for the LGM than for periods further back...proven useful in understanding new aspects of the modern ocean circulation. Due to the poor dating resolution of sediment cores from the LGM period, and...Environmental Processes of the Ice Age: Land, Oceans, Glaciers (EPI- LOG) project was an effort to reconstruct the state of the Earth in glacial states; a

A pseudoproxy assessment of data assimilation for reconstructing the atmosphere-ocean dynamics of hydroclimate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiger, Nathan J.; Smerdon, Jason E.

2017-10-01

Because of the relatively brief observational record, the climate dynamics that drive multiyear to centennial hydroclimate variability are not adequately characterized and understood. Paleoclimate reconstructions based on data assimilation (DA) optimally fuse paleoclimate proxies with the dynamical constraints of climate models, thus providing a coherent dynamical picture of the past. DA is therefore an important new tool for elucidating the mechanisms of hydroclimate variability over the last several millennia. But DA has so far remained untested for global hydroclimate reconstructions. Here we explore whether or not DA can be used to skillfully reconstruct global hydroclimate variability along with the driving climate dynamics. Through a set of idealized pseudoproxy experiments, we find that an established DA reconstruction approach can in principle be used to reconstruct hydroclimate at both annual and seasonal timescales. We find that the skill of such reconstructions is generally highest near the proxy sites. This set of reconstruction experiments is specifically designed to estimate a realistic upper bound for the skill of this DA approach. Importantly, this experimental framework allows us to see where and for what variables the reconstruction approach may never achieve high skill. In particular for tree rings, we find that hydroclimate reconstructions depend critically on moisture-sensitive trees, while temperature reconstructions depend critically on temperature-sensitive trees. Real-world DA-based reconstructions will therefore likely require a spatial mixture of temperature- and moisture-sensitive trees to reconstruct both temperature and hydroclimate variables. Additionally, we illustrate how DA can be used to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of drought with two examples: tropical drivers of multiyear droughts in the North American Southwest and in equatorial East Africa. This work thus provides a foundation for future DA-based hydroclimate reconstructions using real-proxy networks while also highlighting the utility of this important tool for hydroclimate research.

Applying Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to simulate growth and bio-energetics of blue mussels under low seston conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosland, R.; Strand, Ø.; Alunno-Bruscia, M.; Bacher, C.; Strohmeier, T.

2009-08-01

A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for simulation of growth and bioenergetics of blue mussels ( Mytilus edulis) has been tested in three low seston sites in southern Norway. The observations comprise four datasets from laboratory experiments (physiological and biometrical mussel data) and three datasets from in situ growth experiments (biometrical mussel data). Additional in situ data from commercial farms in southern Norway were used for estimation of biometrical relationships in the mussels. Three DEB parameters (shape coefficient, half saturation coefficient, and somatic maintenance rate coefficient) were estimated from experimental data, and the estimated parameters were complemented with parameter values from literature to establish a basic parameter set. Model simulations based on the basic parameter set and site specific environmental forcing matched fairly well with observations, but the model was not successful in simulating growth at the extreme low seston regimes in the laboratory experiments in which the long period of negative growth caused negative reproductive mass. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model was moderately sensitive to changes in the parameter and initial conditions. The results show the robust properties of the DEB model as it manages to simulate mussel growth in several independent datasets from a common basic parameter set. However, the results also demonstrate limitations of Chl a as a food proxy for blue mussels and limitations of the DEB model to simulate long term starvation. Future work should aim at establishing better food proxies and improving the model formulations of the processes involved in food ingestion and assimilation. The current DEB model should also be elaborated to allow shrinking in the structural tissue in order to produce more realistic growth simulations during long periods of starvation.

Handling Uncertainty in Palaeo-Climate Models and Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voss, J.; Haywood, A. M.; Dolan, A. M.; Domingo, D.

2017-12-01

The study of palaeoclimates can provide data on the behaviour of the Earth system with boundary conditions different from the ones we observe in the present. One of the main challenges in this approach is that data on past climates comes with large uncertainties, since quantities of interest cannot be observed directly, but must be derived from proxies instead. We consider proxy-derived data from the Pliocene (around 3 millions years ago; the last interval in Earth history when CO2 was at modern or near future levels) and contrast this data to the output of complex climate models. In order to perform a meaningful data-model comparison, uncertainties must be taken into account. In this context, we discuss two examples of complex data-model comparison problems. Both examples have in common that they involve fitting a statistical model to describe how the output of the climate simulations depends on various model parameters, including atmospheric CO2 concentration and orbital parameters (obliquity, excentricity, and precession). This introduces additional uncertainties, but allows to explore a much larger range of model parameters than would be feasible by only relying on simulation runs. The first example shows how Gaussian process emulators can be used to perform data-model comparison when simulation runs only differ in the choice of orbital parameters, but temperature data is given in the (somewhat inconvenient) form of "warm peak averages". The second example shows how a simpler approach, based on linear regression, can be used to analyse a more complex problem where we use a larger and more varied ensemble of climate simulations with the aim to estimate Earth System Sensitivity.

Is Recent Warming Unprecedented in the Common Era? Insights from PAGES2k data and the Last Millennium Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erb, M. P.; Emile-Geay, J.; McKay, N.; Hakim, G. J.; Steig, E. J.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Paleoclimate observations provide a critical context for 20th century warming by putting recent climate change into a longer-term perspective. Previous work (e.g. IPCC AR3-5) has claimed that recent decades are exceptional in the context of past centuries, though these statements are usually accompanied by large uncertainties and little spatial detail. Here we leverage a recent multiproxy compilation (PAGES2k Consortium, 2017) to revisit this long-standing question. We do so via two complementary approaches. The first approach compares multi-decadal averages and trends in PAGES2k proxy records, which include trees, corals, ice cores, and more. Numerous proxy records reveal that late 20th century values are extreme compared to the remainder of the recorded period, although considerable variability exists in the signals preserved in individual records. The second approach uses the same PAGES2k data blended with climate model output to produce an optimal analysis: the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR; Hakim et al., 2016). Unlike proxy data, LMR is spatially-complete and explicitly models uncertainty in proxy records, resulting in objective error estimates. The LMR results show that for nearly every region of the world, late 20th century temperatures exceed temperatures in previous multi-decadal periods during the Common Era, and 20th century warming rates exceed rates in previous centuries. An uncertainty with the present analyses concerns the interpretation of proxy records. PAGES2k included only records that are primarily sensitive to temperature, but many proxies may be influenced by secondary non-temperature effects. Additionally, the issue of seasonality is important as, for example, many temperature-sensitive tree ring chronologies in the Northern Hemisphere respond to summer or growing season temperature rather than annual-means. These uncertainties will be further explored. References Hakim, G. J., et al., 2016: The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(12), 6745-6764. http://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024751 PAGES2k Consortium, 2017: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Scientific Data, 1-33. http://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88

Past Asian Monsoon circulation from multiple tree-ring proxies and models (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Herzog, M.; Hernandez, M.; Martin-Benito, D.; Gagen, M.; LeGrande, A. N.; Ummenhofer, C.; Buckley, B.; Cook, E. R.

2013-12-01

The Asian monsoon can be characterized in terms of precipitation variability as well as features of regional atmospheric circulation across a range of spatial and temporal scales. While multicentury time series of tree-ring widths at hundreds of sites across Asia provide estimates of past rainfall, the oxygen isotope ratios of annual rings at some of these sites can reveal broader regional atmosphere-ocean dynamics. Here we present a replicated, multicentury stable isotope series from Vietnam that integrates the influence of monsoon circulation on water isotopes. Stronger (weaker) monsoon flow over Indochina is associated with lower (higher) oxygen isotope values in our long-lived tropical conifers. Ring width and isotopes show particular coherence at multidecadal time scales, and together allow past precipitation amount and circulation strength to be disentangled. Combining multiple tree-ring proxies with simulations from isotope-enabled and paleoclimate general circulation models allows us to independently assess the mechanisms responsible for proxy formation and to evaluate how monsoon rainfall is influenced by ocean-atmosphere interactions at timescales from interannual to multidecadal.

The PAGES 2k Network, Phase 3: Themes and Call for Participation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Gunten, L.; Mcgregor, H. V.; Martrat, B.; St George, S.; Neukom, R.; Bothe, O.; Linderholm, H. W.; Phipps, S. J.; Abram, N.

2017-12-01

The past 2000 years (the "2k" interval) provides critical context for understanding recent anthropogenic forcing of the climate and provides baseline information about the characteristics of natural climate variability. It also presents opportunities to improve the interpretation of proxy observations and to evaluate the climate models used to make future projections. Phases 1 and 2 of the PAGES 2k Network focussed on building regional and global surface temperature reconstructions for terrestrial regions and the oceans, and comparing these with model simulations to identify mechanisms of climate variation on interannual to bicentennial time scales. Phase 3 was launched in May 2017 and aims to address major questions around past hydroclimate, climate processes and proxy uncertainties. Its scientific themes are: Theme 1: "Climate Variability, Modes and Mechanisms"Further understand the mechanisms driving regional climate variability and change on interannual to centennial time scales; Theme 2: "Methods and Uncertainties"Reduce uncertainties in the interpretation of observations imprinted in paleoclimatic archives by environmental sensors; Theme 3: "Proxy and Model Understanding"Identify and analyse the extent of agreement between reconstructions and climate model simulations. Research is organized as a linked network of well-defined projects, identified and led by 2k community members. The 2k projects focus on specific scientific questions aligned with Phase 3 themes, rather than being defined along regional boundaries. New 2k projects can be proposed at any time at http://www.pastglobalchanges.org/ini/wg/2k-network/projects An enduring element of PAGES 2k is a culture of collegiality, transparency, and reciprocity. Phase 3 seeks to stimulate community based projects and facilitate collaboration between researchers from different regions and career stages, drawing on the breadth and depth of the global PAGES 2k community. All PAGES 2k projects also promote best practises in data stewardship for the research community. The network is open to anyone who is interested. If you would like to participate in PAGES 2k or receive updates, please join our mailing list or speak to a coordinating committee member.

An object-based approach to weather analysis and its applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troemel, Silke; Diederich, Malte; Horvath, Akos; Simmer, Clemens; Kumjian, Matthew

2013-04-01

The research group 'Object-based Analysis and SEamless prediction' (OASE) within the Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research programme (HErZ) pursues an object-based approach to weather analysis. The object-based tracking approach adopts the Lagrange perspective by identifying and following the development of convective events over the course of their lifetime. Prerequisites of the object-based analysis are a high-resolved observational data base and a tracking algorithm. A near real-time radar and satellite remote sensing-driven 3D observation-microphysics composite covering Germany, currently under development, contains gridded observations and estimated microphysical quantities. A 3D scale-space tracking identifies convective rain events in the dual-composite and monitors the development over the course of their lifetime. The OASE-group exploits the object-based approach in several fields of application: (1) For a better understanding and analysis of precipitation processes responsible for extreme weather events, (2) in nowcasting, (3) as a novel approach for validation of meso-γ atmospheric models, and (4) in data assimilation. Results from the different fields of application will be presented. The basic idea of the object-based approach is to identify a small set of radar- and satellite derived descriptors which characterize the temporal development of precipitation systems which constitute the objects. So-called proxies of the precipitation process are e.g. the temporal change of the brightband, vertically extensive columns of enhanced differential reflectivity ZDR or the cloud top temperature and heights identified in the 4D field of ground-based radar reflectivities and satellite retrievals generated by a cell during its life time. They quantify (micro-) physical differences among rain events and relate to the precipitation yield. Analyses on the informative content of ZDR columns as precursor for storm evolution for example will be presented to demonstrate the use of such system-oriented predictors for nowcasting. Columns of differential reflectivity ZDR measured by polarimetric weather radars are prominent signatures associated with thunderstorm updrafts. Since greater vertical velocities can loft larger drops and water-coated ice particles to higher altitudes above the environmental freezing level, the integrated ZDR column above the freezing level increases with increasing updraft intensity. Validation of atmospheric models concerning precipitation representation or prediction is usually confined to comparisons of precipitation fields or their temporal and spatial statistics. A comparison of the rain rates alone, however, does not immediately explain discrepancies between models and observations, because similar rain rates might be produced by different processes. Within the event-based approach for validation of models both observed and modeled rain events are analyzed by means of proxies of the precipitation process. Both sets of descriptors represent the basis for model validation since different leading descriptors - in a statistical sense- hint at process formulations potentially responsible for model failures.

Proxy assessment of health-related quality of life in african american and white respondents with prostate cancer: perspective matters.

PubMed

Pickard, A Simon; Lin, Hsiang-Wen; Knight, Sara J; Knight, Sara L; Sharifi, Roohollah; Wu, Zhigang; Hung, Shih-Ying; Witt, Whitney P; Chang, Chih-Hung; Bennett, Charles L

2009-02-01

An emerging issue in the proxy literature is whether specifying different proxy viewpoints contributes to different health-related quality of life (HRQL) assessments, and if so, how might each perspective be informative in medical decision making. The aims of this study were to determine if informal caregiver assessments of patients with prostate cancer differed when prompted from both the patient perspective (proxy-patient) and their own viewpoint (proxy-proxy), and to identify factors associated with differences in proxy perspectives (ie, the intraproxy gap). Using a cross-sectional design, prostate cancer patients and their informal caregivers were recruited from urology clinics in the Jesse Brown Veterans Affairs Healthcare System in Chicago. Dyads assessed HRQL using the EQ-5D visual analog scale (VAS) and EORTC QLQ-C30. Of 87 dyads, most caregivers were female (83%) and were spouses/partners (58%). Mean difference scores between proxy-patient and proxy-proxy perspectives were statistically significant for QLQ-C30 physical and emotional functioning, and VAS (all P < 0.05), with the proxy-patient perspective closer to patient self-report. Emotional functioning had the largest difference, mean 6.0 (SD 12.8), an effect size = 0.47. Factors weakly correlated with the intraproxy gap included relationship (spouse) and proxy gender for role functioning, and health literacy (limited/functional) for physical functioning (all P < 0.05, 0.20 < r < 0.35). Meaningful differences between proxy-patient and proxy-proxy perspectives on mental health were consistent with a conceptual framework for understanding proxy perspectives. Prompting different proxy viewpoints on patient health could help clinicians identify patients who may benefit from clinical intervention.

Proxy Assessment of Health-Related Quality of Life in African American and White Respondents With Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Pickard, A. Simon; Lin, Hsiang-Wen; Knight, Sara J.; Sharifi, Roohollah; Wu, Zhigang; Hung, Shih-Ying; Witt, Whitney P.; Chang, Chih-Hung; Bennett, Charles L.

2011-01-01

Objectives An emerging issue in the proxy literature is whether specifying different proxy viewpoints contributes to different health-related quality of life (HRQL) assessments, and if so, how might each perspective be informative in medical decision making. The aims of this study were to determine if informal caregiver assessments of patients with prostate cancer differed when prompted from both the patient perspective (proxy-patient) and their own viewpoint (proxy-proxy), and to identify factors associated with differences in proxy perspectives (ie, the intraproxy gap). Research Design and Methods Using a cross-sectional design, prostate cancer patients and their informal caregivers were recruited from urology clinics in the Jesse Brown Veterans Affairs Healthcare System in Chicago. Dyads assessed HRQL using the EQ-5D visual analog scale (VAS) and EORTC QLQ-C30. Results Of 87 dyads, most caregivers were female (83%) and were spouses/partners (58%). Mean difference scores between proxy-patient and proxy-proxy perspectives were statistically significant for QLQ-C30 physical and emotional functioning, and VAS (all P < 0.05), with the proxy-patient perspective closer to patient self-report. Emotional functioning had the largest difference, mean 6.0 (SD 12.8), an effect size = 0.47. Factors weakly correlated with the intraproxy gap included relationship (spouse) and proxy gender for role functioning, and health literacy (limited/functional) for physical functioning (all P < 0.05, 0.20 < r < 0.35). Conclusions Meaningful differences between proxy-patient and proxy-proxy perspectives on mental health were consistent with a conceptual framework for understanding proxy perspectives. Prompting different proxy viewpoints on patient health could help clinicians identify patients who may benefit from clinical intervention. PMID:19169118

Understanding north-western Mediterranean climate variability: a multi-proxy and multi-sequence approach based on wavelet analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuara, Julien; Lebreton, Vincent; Jalali, Bassem; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sabatier, Pierre; Dezileau, Laurent; Peyron, Odile; Frigola, Jaime; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie

2017-04-01

Forcings and physical mechanisms underlying Holocene climate variability still remain poorly understood. Comparison of different paleoclimatic reconstructions using spectral analysis allows to investigate their common periodicities and helps to understand the causes of past climate changes. Wavelet analysis applied on several proxy time series from the Atlantic domain already revealed the first key-issues on the origin of Holocene climate variability. However the differences in duration, resolution and variance between the time-series are important issues for comparing paleoclimatic sequences in the frequency domain. This work compiles 7 paleoclimatic proxy records from 4 time-series from the north-western Mediterranean all ranging from 7000 to 1000 yrs cal BP: -pollen and clay mineral contents from the lagoonal sediment core PB06 recovered in southern France, -Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) derived from alkenones, concentration of terrestrial alkanes and their average chain length (ACL) from core KSGC-31_GolHo-1B recovered in the Gulf of Lion inner-shelf, - δ18O record from speleothems recovered in the Asiul Cave in north-western Spain, -grain size record from the deep basin sediment drift core MD99-2343 north of Minorca island. A comparison of their frequency content is proposed using wavelet analysis and cluster analysis of wavelet power spectra. Common cyclicities are assessed using cross-wavelet analysis. In addition, a new algorithm is used in order to propagate the age model errors within wavelet power spectra. Results are consistents with a non-stationnary Holocene climate variability. The Halstatt cycles (2000-2500 years) depicted in many proxies (ACL, errestrial alkanes and SSTs) demonstrate solar activity influence in the north-western Mediterranean climate. Cluster analysis shows that pollen and ACL proxies, both indicating changes in aridity, are clearly distinct from other proxies and share significant common periodicities around 1000 and 600 years, since the mid-Holocene. The 1000 years period is also evidenced in terrestrial alkanes and Minorca sediment drift grain size, which respectively indicate changes in the Rhône hydrology and changes in the north-western Mediterranean deep water formation. These findings suggests that an original climate driver influences the Gulf of Lion area. Finally, both clay mineral content from PB06, indicative of past storminess and δ18O record from the north western Iberia, related to precipitations, record the well known 1500 years period since the middle Holocene. The presence of this period, widely encountered in the Atlantic, highlights the link between the north-western Mediterranean and the Atlantic climate variability.

Constraining the temperature history of the past millennium using early instrumental observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brohan, P.; Allan, R.; Freeman, E.; Wheeler, D.; Wilkinson, C.; Williamson, F.

2012-05-01

The current assessment that twentieth-century global temperature change is unusual in the context of the last thousand years relies on estimates of temperature changes from natural proxies (tree-rings, ice-cores etc.) and climate model simulations. Confidence in such estimates is limited by difficulties in calibrating the proxies and systematic differences between proxy reconstructions and model simulations. As the difference between the estimates extends into the relatively recent period of the early nineteenth century it is possible to compare them with a reliable instrumental estimate of the temperature change over that period, provided that enough early thermometer observations, covering a wide enough expanse of the world, can be collected. One organisation which systematically made observations and collected the results was the English East-India Company (EEIC), and their archives have been preserved in the British Library. Inspection of those archives revealed 900 log-books of EEIC ships containing daily instrumental measurements of temperature and pressure, and subjective estimates of wind speed and direction, from voyages across the Atlantic and Indian Oceans between 1789 and 1834. Those records have been extracted and digitised, providing 273 000 new weather records offering an unprecedentedly detailed view of the weather and climate of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. The new thermometer observations demonstrate that the large-scale temperature response to the Tambora eruption and the 1809 eruption was modest (perhaps 0.5 °C). This provides a powerful out-of-sample validation for the proxy reconstructions - supporting their use for longer-term climate reconstructions. However, some of the climate model simulations in the CMIP5 ensemble show much larger volcanic effects than this - such simulations are unlikely to be accurate in this respect.

Constraining the temperature history of the past millennium using early instrumental observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brohan, P.; Allan, R.; Freeman, E.; Wheeler, D.; Wilkinson, C.; Williamson, F.

2012-10-01

The current assessment that twentieth-century global temperature change is unusual in the context of the last thousand years relies on estimates of temperature changes from natural proxies (tree-rings, ice-cores, etc.) and climate model simulations. Confidence in such estimates is limited by difficulties in calibrating the proxies and systematic differences between proxy reconstructions and model simulations. As the difference between the estimates extends into the relatively recent period of the early nineteenth century it is possible to compare them with a reliable instrumental estimate of the temperature change over that period, provided that enough early thermometer observations, covering a wide enough expanse of the world, can be collected. One organisation which systematically made observations and collected the results was the English East India Company (EEIC), and their archives have been preserved in the British Library. Inspection of those archives revealed 900 log-books of EEIC ships containing daily instrumental measurements of temperature and pressure, and subjective estimates of wind speed and direction, from voyages across the Atlantic and Indian Oceans between 1789 and 1834. Those records have been extracted and digitised, providing 273 000 new weather records offering an unprecedentedly detailed view of the weather and climate of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. The new thermometer observations demonstrate that the large-scale temperature response to the Tambora eruption and the 1809 eruption was modest (perhaps 0.5 °C). This provides an out-of-sample validation for the proxy reconstructions - supporting their use for longer-term climate reconstructions. However, some of the climate model simulations in the CMIP5 ensemble show much larger volcanic effects than this - such simulations are unlikely to be accurate in this respect.

Promoting advance care planning among community-based older adults: A randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Bravo, Gina; Trottier, Lise; Arcand, Marcel; Boire-Lavigne, Anne-Marie; Blanchette, Danièle; Dubois, Marie-France; Guay, Maryse; Lane, Julie; Hottin, Paule; Bellemare, Suzanne

2016-11-01

To test an intervention designed to motivate older adults in documenting their healthcare preferences in advance, and to guide proxies in making hypothetical decisions that match those of the older adult. The trial involved 235 older adults, of which half were assisted in communicating their wishes to their proxy. Hypothetical vignettes were used at baseline and twice after the intervention to elicit older adults' preferences and assess their proxy's ability to predict them. By the end of the trial, 80% of older adults allocated to the experimental group had documented their wishes. Changes over time in mean accuracy scores did not differ between groups for any hypothetical situations, except when limiting the sample to dyads that were highly discordant at baseline. The intervention motivated a large proportion of older adults to express their preferences but had little effect on proxies' ability to predict them. Educational tools developed for this study will assist healthcare providers in helping older adults to record their wishes in advance. Clients must be informed of the challenge of making substitute decisions and of the need to discuss the amount of leeway the proxy should have in interpreting expressed wishes. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Nowcasting Ground Magnetic Perturbations with the Space Weather Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Toth, G.; Singer, H. J.; Millward, G. H.; Gombosi, T. I.

2015-12-01

Predicting ground-based magnetic perturbations is a critical step towards specifying and predicting geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in high voltage transmission lines. Currently, the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), a flexible modeling framework for simulating the multi-scale space environment, is being transitioned from research to operational use (R2O) by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Upon completion of this transition, the SWMF will provide localized B/t predictions using real-time solar wind observations from L1 and the F10.7 proxy for EUV as model input. This presentation describes the operational SWMF setup and summarizes the changes made to the code to enable R2O progress. The framework's algorithm for calculating ground-based magnetometer observations will be reviewed. Metrics from data-model comparisons will be reviewed to illustrate predictive capabilities. Early data products, such as regional-K index and grids of virtual magnetometer stations, will be presented. Finally, early successes will be shared, including the code's ability to reproduce the recent March 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm.

17 CFR 240.14a-1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... a meeting, the earliest date they may be used to effect corporate action. (f) Proxy. The term “proxy... proxy; or (iii) The furnishing of a form of proxy or other communication to security holders under... proxy; or (iv) A communication by a security holder who does not otherwise engage in a proxy...

12 CFR 569.4 - Proxy soliciting material.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Proxy soliciting material. 569.4 Section 569.4 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY PROXIES § 569.4 Proxy soliciting material. No solicitation of a proxy shall be made by means of any statement, form of proxy...

The climate continuum revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J.; Wang, J.; Partin, J. W.

2015-12-01

A grand challenge of climate science is to quantify the extent of natural variability on adaptation-relevant timescales (10-100y). Since the instrumental record is too short to adequately estimate the spectra of climate measures, this information must be derived from paleoclimate proxies, which may harbor a many-to-one, non-linear (e.g. thresholded) and non-stationary relationship to climate. In this talk, I will touch upon the estimation of climate scaling behavior from climate proxies. Two case studies will be presented: an investigation of scaling behavior in a reconstruction of global surface temperature using state-of- the-art data [PAGES2K Consortium, in prep] and methods [Guillot et al., 2015]. Estimating the scaling exponent β in spectra derived from this reconstruction, we find that 0 < β < 1 in most regions, suggesting long-term memory. Overall, the reconstruction-based spectra are steeper than the ones based on an instrumental dataset [HadCRUT4.2, Morice et al., 2012], and those estimated from PMIP3/CMIP5 models, suggesting the climate system is more energetic at multidecadal to centennial timescales than can be inferred from the short instrumental record or from the models developed to reproduce it [Laepple and Huybers, 2014]. an investigation of scaling behavior in speleothems records of tropical hydroclimate. We will make use of recent advances in proxy system modeling [Dee et al., 2015] and investigate how various aspects of the speleothem system (karst dynamics, age uncertainties) may conspire to bias the estimate of scaling behavior from speleothem timeseries. The results suggest that ignoring such complications leads to erroneous inferences about hydroclimate scaling. References Dee, S. G., J. Emile-Geay, M. N. Evans, Allam, A., D. M. Thompson, and E. J. Steig (2015), J. Adv. Mod. Earth Sys., 07, doi:10.1002/2015MS000447. Guillot, D., B. Rajaratnam, and J. Emile-Geay (2015), Ann. Applied. Statist., pp. 324-352, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS794. Laepple, T., and P. Huybers (2014), PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1412077111. Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones (2012), JGR: Atmospheres, 117(D8), doi:10.1029/2011JD017187. PAGES2K Consortium (in prep), A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era, Scientific Data.

High-resolution mineral dust and sea ice proxy records from the Talos Dome ice core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schüpbach, S.; Federer, U.; Kaufmann, P. R.; Albani, S.; Barbante, C.; Stocker, T. F.; Fischer, H.

2013-12-01

In this study we report on new non-sea salt calcium (nssCa2+, mineral dust proxy) and sea salt sodium (ssNa+, sea ice proxy) records along the East Antarctic Talos Dome deep ice core in centennial resolution reaching back 150 thousand years (ka) before present. During glacial conditions nssCa2+ fluxes in Talos Dome are strongly related to temperature as has been observed before in other deep Antarctic ice core records, and has been associated with synchronous changes in the main source region (southern South America) during climate variations in the last glacial. However, during warmer climate conditions Talos Dome mineral dust input is clearly elevated compared to other records mainly due to the contribution of additional local dust sources in the Ross Sea area. Based on a simple transport model, we compare nssCa2+ fluxes of different East Antarctic ice cores. From this multi-site comparison we conclude that changes in transport efficiency or atmospheric lifetime of dust particles do have a minor effect compared to source strength changes on the large-scale concentration changes observed in Antarctic ice cores during climate variations of the past 150 ka. Our transport model applied on ice core data is further validated by climate model data. The availability of multiple East Antarctic nssCa2+ records also allows for a revision of a former estimate on the atmospheric CO2 sensitivity to reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene (T1). While a former estimate based on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) record only suggested 20 ppm, we find that reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean may be responsible for up to 40 ppm of the total atmospheric CO2 increase during T1. During the last interglacial, ssNa+ levels of EDC and EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) are only half of the Holocene levels, in line with higher temperatures during that period, indicating much reduced sea ice extent in the Atlantic as well as the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. In contrast, Holocene ssNa+ flux in Talos Dome is about the same as during the last interglacial, indicating that there was similar ice cover present in the Ross Sea area during MIS 5.5 as during the Holocene.

Performance of Simulated El Niño-Southern Oscillation Climate Reconstructions over the Last Millennium: Comparison of Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Eugene R.; Amrhein, Dan E.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Ammann, Caspar M.

2010-05-01

A key question in late-Holocene climate dynamics is the role of dominant modes in influencing climates in teleconnected regions of the world. For example, it has recently been proposed that ENSO had a key role in influencing the extended period of largely positive-phase NAO during ~1100-1400 CE (Trouet et al., 2009, Science, 324, 78). Fundamental to understanding the global and regional climatological roles of dominant modes are primary data on the variations of the modes themselves, in particular paleoclimate data that greatly extend instrumental-period information. Establishing records of ENSO indices that span the past millennium has proven difficult, and well-verified reconstructions produced to date have non-trivial differences (cf., e.g., Braganza et al., 2009, Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D05106). This presentation examines important general questions regarding reconstructions of modal indices, including ENSO: is it best (1) to focus on proxy evidence from the most strongly influenced (or most strongly teleconnected) areas, (2) to combine proxy data from a large regional network encompassing the primary area of modal activity and teleconnections (e.g., around the Pacific Rim in the case of ENSO), or (3) to use climate field reconstruction (CFR) methods that assimilate up-to-global-scale proxy information? A systematic suite of reconstruction simulation experiments (RSEs), derived from NCAR CSM 1.4 millennium transient model output, is explored to test the various strengths and weaknesses of these three approaches for reconstructing the NINO3 index. By doing this, NINO3 reconstruction fidelity can be gauged over the entire simulated millennium via comparison to the known model target; such comparisons are restricted to brief "validation" periods in real-world reconstructions due to the length of the instrumental record. For strategies (1) and (2), pseudoproxies are formed by adding white noise to the model output (seasonally-appropriate precipitation or temperature) at the simulated proxy locations, so that the correlation of the noise-added time series to the original CSM output emulates that of real-world proxy information to local instrumental climate data. White noise is considered a reasonable first-order approximation of random process in these two strategies, since all predictands and predictors used in the reconstruction algorithms are "pre-whitened" by removal of AR1 persistence, following dendrochronological methods. For strategy (3), pseudoproxies are similarly sampled at locations that approximate proxy availability in real-world CFR applications; white noise at a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.25 (by variance) is added (real-world noise characteristics are likely more complex than the model adopted in this case). Monte Carlo replication of the simulated reconstructions is then generated from multiple pseudoproxy noise realizations, and thus a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty involved in the reconstruction process is derived. The results of these experiments indicate that exploitation of low-noise proxy data (i.e., proxy information that closely tracks its associated teleconnected climatic variable) from the most-strongly teleconnected areas (strategy 1) is a preferable method for ENSO index reconstruction, in comparison to adding additional proxy information from less-strongly teleconnected areas (strategy 2). Average reconstruction fidelity was reduced by strategy (2) and the width of the estimated credible intervals (CIs) was widened relative to those generated using strategy (1). The use of CFR methods, strategy (3), further enhances the width of the simulated CIs, even to the point of suggesting possible loss of reconstruction significance (at the 95% level) for a brief period. Given these widened CIs, however, the CFR method shows the highest reconstruction fidelity overall (restricted to the 19th and 20th centuries), suggesting it might be a preferable method along with strategy (1). The enhanced performance of the CFR method during this time is due at least in part to the fact that the CFR reconstructions better capture the 20th century trend than the reconstructions in strategies (1) and (2) (note that the pre-whitening process leaves the trend largely intact), and may also be due to the greater proxy richness exploited in the CFR method. This enhanced performance during the real-world time of calibration and verification should also lead to the caveat that it might suggest performance during such a limited period that gives an over-optimistic view of its true potential over the full millennium.

Improving health care proxy documentation using a web-based interview through a patient portal.

PubMed

Bajracharya, Adarsha S; Crotty, Bradley H; Kowaloff, Hollis B; Safran, Charles; Slack, Warner V

2016-05-01

Health care proxy (HCP) documentation is suboptimal. To improve rates of proxy selection and documentation, we sought to develop and evaluate a web-based interview to guide patients in their selection, and to capture their choices in their electronic health record (EHR). We developed and implemented a HCP interview within the patient portal of a large academic health system. We analyzed the experience, together with demographic and clinical factors, of the first 200 patients who used the portal to complete the interview. We invited users to comment about their experience and analyzed their comments using established qualitative methods. From January 20, 2015 to March 13, 2015, 139 of the 200 patients who completed the interview submitted their HCP information for their clinician to review in the EHR. These patients had a median age of 57 years (Inter Quartile Range (IQR) 45-67) and most were healthy. The 99 patients who did not previously have HCP information in their EHR were more likely to complete and then submit their information than the 101 patients who previously had a proxy in their health record (odds ratio 2.4, P = .005). Qualitative analysis identified several ways in which the portal-based interview reminded, encouraged, and facilitated patients to complete their HCP. Patients found our online interview convenient and helpful in facilitating selection and documentation of an HCP. Our study demonstrates that a web-based interview to collect and share a patient's HCP information is both feasible and useful. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Multiple Types of Memory and Everyday Functional Assessment in Older Adults.

PubMed

Beaver, Jenna; Schmitter-Edgecombe, Maureen

2017-06-01

Current proxy measures for assessing everyday functioning (e.g., questionnaires, performance-based measures, and direct observation) show discrepancies in their rating of functional status. The present study investigated the relationship between multiple proxy measures of functional status and content memory (i.e., memory for information), temporal order memory, and prospective memory in an older adult sample. A total of 197 community-dwelling older adults who did (n = 45) or did not meet (n = 152) criteria for mild cognitive impairment (MCI), completed six different assessments of functional status (two questionnaires, two performance-based tasks, and two direct observation tasks) as well as experimental measures of content memory, prospective memory, and temporal order memory. After controlling for demographics and content memory, the temporal order and prospective memory measures explained a significant amount of variance in all proxy functional status measures. When all variables were entered into the regression analyses, content memory and prospective memory were found to be significant predictors of all measures of functional status, whereas temporal order memory was a significant predictor for the questionnaire and direct observation measures, but not performance-based measures. The results suggest that direct observation and questionnaire measures may be able to capture components of everyday functioning that require context and temporal sequencing abilities, such as multi-tasking, that are not as well captured in many current laboratory performance-based measures of functional status. Future research should aim to inform the development and use of maximally effective and valid proxy measures of functional ability. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Constraining the temperature history of the past millennium using early instrumental observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brohan, P.

2012-12-01

The current assessment that twentieth-century global temperature change is unusual in the context of the last thousand years relies on estimates of temperature changes from natural proxies (tree-rings, ice-cores etc.) and climate model simulations. Confidence in such estimates is limited by difficulties in calibrating the proxies and systematic differences between proxy reconstructions and model simulations - notable differences include large differences in multi-decadal variability between proxy reconstructions, and big uncertainties in the effect of volcanic eruptions. Because the difference between the estimates extends into the relatively recent period of the early nineteenth century it is possible to compare them with a reliable instrumental estimate of the temperature change over that period, provided that enough early thermometer observations, covering a wide enough expanse of the world, can be collected. By constraining key aspects of the reconstructions and simulations, instrumental observations, inevitably from a limited period, can reduce reconstruction uncertainty throughout the millennium. A considerable quantity of early instrumental observations are preserved in the world's archives. One organisation which systematically made observations and collected the results was the English East-India Company (EEIC), and 900 log-books of EEIC ships containing daily instrumental measurements of temperature and pressure have been preserved in the British Library. Similar records from voyages of exploration and scientific investigation are preserved in published literature and the records in National Archives. Some of these records have been extracted and digitised, providing hundreds of thousands of new weather records offering an unprecedentedly detailed view of the weather and climate of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. The new thermometer observations demonstrate that the large-scale temperature response to the Tambora eruption and the 1809 eruption was modest (perhaps 0.5C). This provides a powerful out-of-sample validation for the proxy reconstructions --- supporting their use for longer-term climate reconstructions. However, some of the climate model simulations in the CMIP5 ensemble show much larger volcanic effects than this --- such simulations are unlikely to be accurate in this respect.

Towards a reanalysis covering the last millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goosse, H.; Dubinkina, S.

2012-04-01

The reanalysis, extending over several decades or longer, provide a comprehensive record of the recent variability and changes of the climate system by objectively combining observations and a numerical model. They are now considered as an essential source of information on the state of the ocean and the atmosphere used, among many other applications, to study the dynamics of the system and the interactions between its different components, to analyze the characteristics of the recent changes as well as the interannual climate variability. However, in order to study processes with a characteristic period from some decades to several centuries, the period covered by the presently available reanalysis is too short. It is therefore necessary to use paleoclimatic proxy data, which provide longer time series, in order to extent the period covered by reanalyses . Those paleoclimatic data, however, are much less numerous, more noisy, and have a lower spatial and temporal resolution than the ones available for the reanalyses over the 20th century. In order to obtain reanalyses covering the last millennia, several steps are thus still required. It is first necessary to develop data assimilation methods adapted to this specific problem. Some data synthesis for this period are available but a reanalysis requires a comprehensive evaluation of the quality of existing data, in all the regions and for all the proxies. Reanalyses are very demanding in computer time, the model selected in the procedure must thus be efficient enough but should also include the right dynamics in order to reproduce the teleconnections between areas where data are available and to extrapolate the information towards regions with no data. Finally, proxies and models do not provide the same variables and comparing them requires a sophisticated approach, ideally implying the inclusion of forward proxy models in the data assimilation system. Here, we propose to review the present status of the field and to identify how significant steps can be made in the way towards a reanalysis over the last millennia. This is illustrated by examples from recent studies in which data assimilation is applied over the last millennia using reconstructions at continental and nearly hemispheric-scale as well as grid-scale temperatures derived directly from the local calibration of proxies.

Quantifying Spatially Integrated Floodplain and Wetland Systems for the Conterminous US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, C.; D'Amico, E.; Wing, O.; Bates, P. D.

2017-12-01

Wetlands interact with other waters across a variable connectivity continuum, from permanent to transient, from fast to slow, and from primarily surface water to exclusively groundwater flows. Floodplain wetlands typically experience fast and frequent surface and near-surface groundwater interactions with their river networks, leading to an increasing effort to tailor management strategies for these wetlands. Management of floodplain wetlands is contingent on accurate floodplain delineation, and though this has proven challenging, multiple efforts are being made to alleviate this data gap at the conterminous scale using spatial, physical, and hydrological floodplain proxies. In this study, we derived and contrasted floodplain extents using the following nationally available approaches: 1) a geospatial-buffer floodplain proxy (Lane and D'Amico 2016, JAWRA 52(3):705-722, 2) a regionalized flood frequency analysis coupled to a 30m resolution continental-scale hydraulic model (RFFA; Smith et al. 2015, WRR 51:539-553), and 3) a soils-based floodplain analysis (Sangwan and Merwade 2015, JAWRA 51(5):1286-1304). The geospatial approach uses National Wetlands Inventory and buffered National Hydrography Datasets. RFFA estimates extreme flows based on catchment size, regional climatology and upstream annual rainfall and routes these flows through a hydraulic model built with data from USGS HydroSHEDS, NOAA, and the National Elevation Dataset. Soil-based analyses define floodplains based on attributes within the USDA soil-survey data (SSURGO). Nearly 30% (by count) of U.S. freshwater wetlands are located within floodplains with geospatial analyses, contrasted with 37% (soils-based), and 53% (RFFA-based). The dichotomies between approaches are mainly a function of input data-layer resolution, accuracy, coverage, and extent, further discussed in this presentation. Ultimately, these spatial analyses and findings will improve floodplain and integrated wetland system extent assessment. This will lead to better management of the physically, chemically, and biologically integrated floodplain wetlands affecting the integrity of downstream waterbodies at multiple scales.

Exposure Time Distributions reveal Denitrification Rates along Groundwater Flow Path of an Agricultural Unconfined Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolbe, T.; Abbott, B. W.; Thomas, Z.; Labasque, T.; Aquilina, L.; Laverman, A.; Babey, T.; Marçais, J.; Fleckenstein, J. H.; Peiffer, S.; De Dreuzy, J. R.; Pinay, G.

2016-12-01

Groundwater contamination by nitrate is nearly ubiquitous in agricultural regions. Nitrate is highly mobile in groundwater and though it can be denitrified in the aquifer (reduced to inert N2 gas), this process requires the simultaneous occurrence of anoxia, an electron donor (e.g. organic carbon, pyrite), nitrate, and microorganisms capable of denitrification. In addition to this the ratio of the time groundwater spent in a denitrifying environment (exposure time) to the characteristic denitrification reaction time plays an important role, because denitrification can only occur if the exposure time is longer than the characteristic reaction time. Despite a long history of field studies and numerical models, it remains exceedingly difficult to measure or model exposure times in the subsurface at the catchment scale. To approach this problem, we developed a unified modelling approach combining measured environmental proxies with an exposure time based reactive transport model. We measured groundwater age, nitrogen and sulfur isotopes, and water chemistry from agricultural wells in an unconfined aquifer in Brittany, France, to quantify changes in nitrate concentration due to dilution and denitrification. Field data showed large differences in nitrate concentrations among wells, associated with differences in the exposure time distributions. By constraining a catchment-scale characteristic reaction time for denitrification with water chemistry proxies and exposure times, we were able to assess rates of denitrification along groundwater flow paths. This unified modeling approach is transferable to other catchments and could be further used to investigate how catchment structure and flow dynamics interact with biogeochemical processes such as denitrification.

Early Paleogene evolution of terrestrial climate in the SW Pacific, Southern New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pancost, Richard D.; Taylor, Kyle W. R.; Inglis, Gordon N.; Kennedy, Elizabeth M.; Handley, Luke; Hollis, Christopher J.; Crouch, Erica M.; Pross, Jörg; Huber, Matthew; Schouten, Stefan; Pearson, Paul N.; Morgans, Hugh E. G.; Raine, J. Ian

2013-12-01

We present a long-term record of terrestrial climate change for the Early Paleogene of the Southern Hemisphere that complements previously reported marine temperature records. Using the MBT'-CBT proxy, based on the distribution of soil bacterial glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether lipids, we reconstructed mean annual air temperature (MAT) from the Middle Paleocene to Middle Eocene (62-42 Ma) for southern New Zealand. This record is consistent with temperature estimates derived from leaf fossils and palynology, as well as previously published MBT'-CBT records, which provides confidence in absolute temperature estimates. Our record indicates that through this interval, temperatures were typically 5°C warmer than those of today at such latitudes, with more pronounced warming during the Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO; ˜50 Ma) when MAT was ˜20°C. Moreover, the EECO MATs are similar to those determined for Antarctica, with a weak high-latitude terrestrial temperature gradient (˜5°C) developing by the Middle Eocene. We also document a short-lived cooling episode in the early Late Paleocene when MAT was comparable to present. This record corroborates the trends documented by sea surface temperature (SST) proxies, although absolute SSTs are up to 6°C warmer than MATs. Although the high-calibration error of the MBT'-CBT proxy dictates caution, the good match between our MAT results and modeled temperatures supports the suggestion that SST records suffer from a warm (summer?) bias, particularly during times of peak warming.

Paleoclimatological study using stalagmites from Java Island, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Y.; Matsuoka, H.; Ohsawa, S.; Yamada, M.; Kitaoka, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Ueda, J.; Yoshimura, K.; Kurisaki, K.; Nakai, S.; Brahmantyo, B.; Maryunani, K. A.; Tagami, T.; Takemura, K.; Yoden, S.

2006-12-01

In the last decade, decoding geochemical records in stalagmites has been widely recognized as a powerful tool for the elucidation of paleoclimate/environment of the terrestrial areas. The previous data are mainly reported from areas that are located in middle latitude. However, this study aims at reconstructing past climate variations in the Asian equatorial regions by using oxygen isotopes and other geochemical proxies recorded in Indonesian stalagmites.. Especially, we focus on the detection of the precipitation anomaly that reflects the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We performed geological surveys in Buniayu limestone caves, Sukabumi, West Java, and Karangbolong, Central Java, Indonesia and collected a series of stalagmites/stalactites and drip water samples. Detailed textures of stalagmite samples were observed using thin sections to identify "annual" bandings. Moreover, we also measured both (1) annual luminescent banding that can be viewed by ultraviolet-light stimulation and (2) uranium series disequilibrium ages using the MC-ICP-MS for each stalagmite to construct the age model. We also carried out 3H-3He dating and stable isotope measurements of drip water samples to understand hydrogeology in study areas. Based on these frameworks, oxygen isotopes and other geochemical proxies will be analyzed for annual or sub-annual time scales. The proxy data will then be compared with meteorological data set, such as local precipitation, in the past 50 years. Finally, we will reconstruct for longer timescales the past climate, particularly the precipitation anomaly, in the region to detect ancient ENSO.

Associations between Race and Dementia Status and the Quality of End-of-Life Care.

PubMed

Luth, Elizabeth A; Prigerson, Holly G

2018-04-05

Non-Hispanic black and dementia patients receive more invasive and futile treatment at end of life (EOL) relative to others. Little is known about the relationship between race/ethnicity, dementia, and EOL care quality. Identify the relationship between race/ethnicity, dementia, and proxy reporters' evaluation of EOL care quality in older adults. Latent class analysis (LCA) of national survey data. 1588 deceased Medicare beneficiaries age 65 and older from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (2011-2016). LCA identified three types of quality EOL care using nine measures of symptom management, quality of healthcare encounters, and dignified treatment. Race and dementia were primary predictors of EOL care quality type. Adjusted models controlled for decedent education, sex, marital status, age, number of illnesses, number of hospitalizations, self-rated health, place of death, hospice involvement, and proxy relationship to decedent and familiarity with care. Over 20% of proxies report that dying individuals experienced suboptimal EOL care quality, characterized by pain, sadness, poor communication, and inattention to personal care needs. In adjusted analyses, proxies for non-Hispanic black decedents were less likely to provide negative care assessments than proxies for non-Hispanic white decedents (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 0.58; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.40-0.86). Proxies for decedents with dementia were less likely to provide negative assessments than proxies for decedents without dementia (AOR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.51-0.97). Efforts to improve EOL care quality are needed. More positive EOL care quality assessments for non-Hispanic Black and dementia decedents appear counterintuitive given research demonstrating that these groups of individuals are likely to have received suboptimal EOL care. Because caregiver expectations for care may differ by decedent race and dementia status, research is needed to explore the role of caregiver expectations for EOL care to explain these paradoxical findings.

Seabird drift as a proxy to estimate surface currents in the western Mediterranean?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez-Navarro, Laura; Sánchez-Román, Antonio; Pascual, Ananda; Fablet, Ronan; Hernandez-Carrasco, Ismael; Mason, Evan; Arcos, José Manuel; Oro, Daniel

2017-04-01

Seabird trajectories can be used as proxies to investigate the dynamics of marine systems and their spatiotemporal evolution. Previous studies have mainly been based on analyses of long range flights, where birds are travelling at high velocities over long time periods. Such data have been used to study wind patterns, and areas of avian feeding and foraging have also been used to study oceanic fronts. Here we focus on "slow moving" periods (which we associate to when birds appear to be drifting on the sea surface), in order to investigate bird drift as a proxy for sea surface currents in the western Mediterranean Sea. We analyse trajectories corresponding to "slow moving" periods recorded by GPSs attached to individuals of the species Calonectris diomedea ( Scopoli's shearwater) from mid August to mid September 2012. The trajectories are compared with sea level anomaly (SLA), sea surface temperature (SST), Finite Size Lyapunov Exponents (FSLE), wind fields, and the outputs from an automated sea-surface-height based eddy tracker. The SLA and SST datasets were obtained from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) with a spatial resolution of 1/8 ̊ and 1/100 ̊ respectively while the FSLEs were computed from the SLA dataset. Finally, the wind data comes from the outputs of the CCMPv2 numerical model. This model has a global coverage with a spatial resolution of 1/4 ̊. Interesting relationships between the trajectories and SLA fields are found. According to the angle between the SLA gradient and the trajectories of birds, we classify drifts into three scenarios: perpendicular, parallel and other, which are associated with different driving forces. The first scenario implies that bird drift is driven by geostrophic sea surface currents. The second we associate with wind drag as the main driving force. This is validated through the wind dataset. Moreover, from the SST, FSLEs and the eddy tracker, we obtain supplementary information on the presence of oceanic structures (such as eddies or fronts), not observed in the SLA field due to its limited spatial and temporal resolutions. Therefore, this data helps to explain some of the third case scenario trajectories.

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) based reconstruction of 130 years of water table fluctuations in a peatland and its relevance for moisture variability assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamkevičiūtė, Marija; Edvardsson, Johannes; Pukienė, Rūtilė; Taminskas, Julius; Stoffel, Markus; Corona, Christophe; Kibirkštis, Gintautas

2018-03-01

Continuous water-table (WT) measurements from peatlands are scarce and - if existing at all -very short. Consequently, proxy indicators are critically needed to simulate hydrological changes in peatlands over longer time periods. In this study, we demonstrate that tree-ring width (TRW) records of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing in the Čepkeliai peatland (southern Lithuania) can be used as a proxy to reconstruct hydrological variability in a raised bog environment. A two-step modelling procedure was applied to extend existing measurements and to develop a new and longer peatland WT time series. To this end, we used instrumental WT measurements extending back to 2002, meteorological records, a P-PET (difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) series covering the period 1935-2014, so as to construct a tree-ring based time series of WT fluctuations at the site for the period 1870-2014. Strongest correlations were obtained between average annual WT measured at the bog margin and total P-PET over 7 years (r = 0.923, p < 0.00001), as well as between modelled WT and standardized TRW data with a two years lag (r = -0.602, p < 0.001) for those periods where WT fluctuated at the level of pine roots which is typically at <50 cm depth below the peat surface. Our results suggest that moisture is a limiting factor for tree growth at peatlands, but below a certain WT level (<50 cm under the soil surface), drought becomes a limiting factor instead. To validate the WT reconstruction from the Čepkeliai bog, results were compared to Nemunas river runoff since CE 1812 (r = 0.39, p < 0.00001, 1870-2014). We conclude that peatlands can act both as sinks and sources of greenhouse gases in case that hydrological conditions change, but that hydrological lags and complex feedbacks still hamper our understanding of several processes affecting the hydrology and carbon budget in peatlands. We therefore call for the development of further proxy records of water-table variability in peatlands to improve our understanding of peatland responses to climatic changes.

Westerly Winds and the Southern Ocean CO2 Sink Since the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodgson, D. A.; Saunders, K. M.; Roberts, S. J.; Perren, B.; Butz, C.; Sime, L. C.; Davies, S. J.; Grosjean, M.

2017-12-01

The capacity of the Southern Ocean carbon sink is partly controlled by the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHW) and sea ice. These regulate the upwelling of dissolved carbon-rich deep water to Antarctic surface waters, determine the surface area for air-sea gas exchange and therefore modulate the net uptake of atmospheric CO2. Some models have proposed that strengthened SHW will result in a weakening of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink. If these models are correct, then one would expect that reconstructions of changes in SHW intensity on centennial to millennial timescales would show clear links with Antarctic ice core and Southern Ocean marine geological records of atmospheric CO2, temperature and sea ice. Here, we present a 12,300 year reconstruction of past wind strength based on three independent proxies that track the changing inputs of sea salt aerosols and minerogenic particles into lake sediments on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. The proxies are consistent in showing that periods of high wind intensity corresponded with the increase in CO2 across the late Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition and in the last 7,000 years, suggesting that the winds have contributed to the long term outgassing of CO2 from the ocean during these periods.

Spatial performance of RegEM climate field reconstruction techniques in a realistic pseudoproxy context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Guillot, D.

2011-12-01

Several methods of climate field reconstructions (CFRs) have been introduced in the past few years to estimate past climate variability from proxy data over the Common Era. The pseudoproxy framework has become a tool of choice for assessing the relative merits of such methods. Here we compare four variants of the RegEM algorithm [Schneider, 2001], using a pseudoproxy network mimicking the key spatio-temporal characteristics of the network of Mann et al., 2008 (hereinafter M08); the methods are (1) RegEM TTLS (2) RegEM iTTLS (3) GraphEM and (4) RegEM iRIDGE. To ensure continuity with previous work [Smerdon et al. 2011], pseudoproxy series are designed as a white-noise degraded version of the simulated temperature field [Amman et al. 2007] over 850-1980 C.E. colocated with 1138 M08 proxies. We use signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of: ∞ (no noise), 1.0, 0.5 and 0.25, to simulate differences in proxy quality. Two novelties in pseudoproxy design are introduced here: (1) the decrease in proxy availability over time follows that found in M08, (2) a realistic case where the SNR is empirically derived from correlations between each M08 proxy and the HadCRUT3v temperature field. It is found that this realistic SNR is clustered around 0.3, but ranges from 0.1 to 0.8. Verification statistics such as RE, CE, r2, bias, standard deviation ratio and RMSE are presented for each method at each SNR level. The results show that all methods perform relatively well at SNR levels higher than 0.5, but display drastically different performances at lower SNR levels. Compared with results using pseudoproxy network of Mann et al., 1998, (hereinafter MBH98), the reconstruction skill of the M08 network is relatively improved, in line with the findings of Smerdon et al., 2011. Overall, we find that GraphEM and iTTLS tend to produce more robust estimates of the temperature field at low SNR levels than other schemes, while preserving a higher amount of variance in the target field. Ammann, C. M., F. Joos, D. S. Schimel, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, and R. A. Tomas (2007), Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 104, 3713-3718, doi:10.1073/pnas.0605064103. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes (1998), Global-scale temperaturepatterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries, Nature, 392, 779-787, doi:10.1038/33859. Mann, M. E., S. Rutherford, E. Wahl, and C. Ammann (2007), Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12109, doi:10.1029/2006JD008272. Mann, M. E., et al. (2008), Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 105, 13,252-13,257, doi:10.1073/pnas.0805721105. Schneider, T. (2001), Analysis of incomplete climate data: Estimation of mean values and covariance matrices and imputation of missing values, J. Clim., 14, 853-871, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0853: AOICDE>2.0.CO;2. Smerdon, J. E., A. Kaplan, E. Zorita, J. F. González-Rouco, and M. N. Evans (2011), Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting the Common Era, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11705, doi:10.1029/2011GL047372.

Machines that Go 'Ping': Medical Technology and Health Expenditures in OECD Countries.

PubMed

Willemé, Peter; Dumont, Michel

2015-08-01

Technology is believed to be a major determinant of increasing health spending. The main difficulty to quantify its effect is to find suitable proxies to measure medical technological innovation. This paper's main contribution is the use of data on approved medical devices and drugs to proxy for medical technology. The effects of these variables on total real per capita health spending are estimated using a panel model for 18 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries covering the period 1981-2012. The results confirm the substantial cost-increasing effect of medical technology, which accounts for almost 50% of the explained historical growth of spending. Despite the overall net positive effect of technology, the effect of two subgroups of approvals on expenditure is significantly negative. These subgroups can be thought of as representing 'incremental medical innovation', whereas the positive effects are related to radically innovative pharmaceutical products and devices. A separate time series model was estimated for the USA because the FDA approval data in fact only apply to the USA, while they serve as proxies for the other OECD countries. Our empirical model includes an indicator of obesity, and estimations confirm the substantial contribution of this lifestyle variable to health spending growth in the countries studied. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Solar measurements from the Airglow-Solar Spectrometer Instrument (ASSI) on the San Marco 5 satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods, Thomas N.

1994-01-01

The analysis of the solar spectral irradiance from the Airglow-Solar Spectrometer Instrument (ASSI) on the San Marco 5 satellite is the focus for this research grant. A pre-print copy of the paper describing the calibrations of and results from the San Marco ASSI is attached to this report. The calibration of the ASSI included (1) transfer of photometric calibration from a rocket experiment and the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME), (2) use of the on-board radioactive calibration sources, (3) validation of the ASSI sensitivity over its field of view, and (4) determining the degradation of the spectrometers. We have determined that the absolute values for the solar irradiance needs adjustment in the current proxy models of the solar UV irradiance, and the amount of solar variability from the proxy models are in reasonable agreement with the ASSI measurements. This research grant also has supported the development of a new solar EUV irradiance proxy model. We expected that the magnetic flux is responsible for most of the heating, via Alfen waves, in the chromosphere, transition region, and corona. From examining time series of solar irradiance data and magnetic fields at different levels, we did indeed find that the chromospheric emissions correlate best with the large magnetic field levels.

The Sensitivity of the North American Monsoon to Deglacial Climate Change in Proxies and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, T.; Tierney, J. E.

2017-12-01

The North American Monsoon (NAM), which brings summer rainfall to the arid US Southwest and northwestern Mexico, remains one of the least understood monsoon systems. Model simulations produce divergent NAM responses to future anthropogenic warming, and many paleoclimatic records from the NAM region are more sensitive to winter rainfall than the summertime circulation. As a result, we have an incomplete understanding of NAM sensitivity to past and future global climate change. Our work seeks to improve understanding of NAM dynamics using new proxy records and model simulations. We have developed quantitative reconstructions of NAM strength since the LGM ( 21 ka BP) using leaf wax biomarkers (e.g. dD of n-acids) from marine sediment cores in the Gulf of California. We contrast these proxy records with idealized GCM simulations (i.e. CESM1.2) to diagnose the mechanisms behind NAM responses to LGM boundary conditions and abrupt deglacial climate events. Our results suggest that ice-sheet induced changes in atmospheric circulation acted in concert with local changes in Gulf of California SSTs to modulate the late glacial NAM. This work has important implications for our understanding of NAM dynamics, its relationship with other monsoon systems, and its sensitivity to past and future global climate change.

Simulation of Wake Vortex Radiometric Detection via Jet Exhaust Proxy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniels, Taumi S.

2015-01-01

This paper describes an analysis of the potential of an airborne hyperspectral imaging IR instrument to infer wake vortices via turbine jet exhaust as a proxy. The goal was to determine the requirements for an imaging spectrometer or radiometer to effectively detect the exhaust plume, and by inference, the location of the wake vortices. The effort examines the gas spectroscopy of the various major constituents of turbine jet exhaust and their contributions to the modeled detectable radiance. Initially, a theoretical analysis of wake vortex proxy detection by thermal radiation was realized in a series of simulations. The first stage used the SLAB plume model to simulate turbine jet exhaust plume characteristics, including exhaust gas transport dynamics and concentrations. The second stage used these plume characteristics as input to the Line By Line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM) to simulate responses from both an imaging IR hyperspectral spectrometer or radiometer. These numerical simulations generated thermal imagery that was compared with previously reported wake vortex temperature data. This research is a continuation of an effort to specify the requirements for an imaging IR spectrometer or radiometer to make wake vortex measurements. Results of the two-stage simulation will be reported, including instrument specifications for wake vortex thermal detection. These results will be compared with previously reported results for IR imaging spectrometer performance.

Adaptable state based control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rasmussen, Robert D. (Inventor); Dvorak, Daniel L. (Inventor); Gostelow, Kim P. (Inventor); Starbird, Thomas W. (Inventor); Gat, Erann (Inventor); Chien, Steve Ankuo (Inventor); Keller, Robert M. (Inventor)

2004-01-01

An autonomous controller, comprised of a state knowledge manager, a control executor, hardware proxies and a statistical estimator collaborates with a goal elaborator, with which it shares common models of the behavior of the system and the controller. The elaborator uses the common models to generate from temporally indeterminate sets of goals, executable goals to be executed by the controller. The controller may be updated to operate in a different system or environment than that for which it was originally designed by the replacement of shared statistical models and by the instantiation of a new set of state variable objects derived from a state variable class. The adaptation of the controller does not require substantial modification of the goal elaborator for its application to the new system or environment.

Control-based continuation: Bifurcation and stability analysis for physical experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, David A. W.

2017-02-01

Control-based continuation is technique for tracking the solutions and bifurcations of nonlinear experiments. The idea is to apply the method of numerical continuation to a feedback-controlled physical experiment such that the control becomes non-invasive. Since in an experiment it is not (generally) possible to set the state of the system directly, the control target becomes a proxy for the state. Control-based continuation enables the systematic investigation of the bifurcation structure of a physical system, much like if it was numerical model. However, stability information (and hence bifurcation detection and classification) is not readily available due to the presence of stabilising feedback control. This paper uses a periodic auto-regressive model with exogenous inputs (ARX) to approximate the time-varying linearisation of the experiment around a particular periodic orbit, thus providing the missing stability information. This method is demonstrated using a physical nonlinear tuned mass damper.

12 CFR 569.2 - Form of proxies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Form of proxies. 569.2 Section 569.2 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY PROXIES § 569.2 Form of proxies. Every form of proxy shall conform to the following requirements: (a) The proxy shall be revocable at will by...

Novel Hydraulic Vulnerability Proxies for a Boreal Conifer Species Reveal That Opportunists May Have Lower Survival Prospects under Extreme Climatic Events

PubMed Central

Rosner, Sabine; Světlík, Jan; Andreassen, Kjell; Børja, Isabella; Dalsgaard, Lise; Evans, Robert; Luss, Saskia; Tveito, Ole E.; Solberg, Svein

2016-01-01

Top dieback in 40–60 years old forest stands of Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] in southern Norway is supposed to be associated with climatic extremes. Our intention was to learn more about the processes related to top dieback and in particular about the plasticity of possible predisposing factors. We aimed at (i) developing proxies for P50 based on anatomical data assessed by SilviScan technology and (ii) testing these proxies for their plasticity regarding climate, in order to (iii) analyze annual variations of hydraulic proxies of healthy looking trees and trees with top dieback upon their impact on tree survival. At two sites we selected 10 tree pairs, i.e., one healthy looking tree and one tree with visual signs of dieback such as dry tops, needle shortening and needle yellowing (n = 40 trees). Vulnerability to cavitation (P50) of the main trunk was assessed in a selected sample set (n = 19) and we thereafter applied SilviScan technology to measure cell dimensions (lumen (b) and cell wall thickness (t)) in these specimen and in all 40 trees in tree rings formed between 1990 and 2010. In a first analysis step, we searched for anatomical proxies for P50. The set of potential proxies included hydraulic lumen diameters and wall reinforcement parameters based on mean, radial, and tangential tracheid diameters. The conduit wall reinforcement based on tangential hydraulic lumen diameters ((t/bht)2) was the best estimate for P50. It was thus possible to relate climatic extremes to the potential vulnerability of single annual rings. Trees with top dieback had significantly lower (t/bht)2 and wider tangential (hydraulic) lumen diameters some years before a period of water deficit (2005–2006). Radial (hydraulic) lumen diameters showed however no significant differences between both tree groups. (t/bht)2 was influenced by annual climate variability; strongest correlations were found with precipitation in September of the previous growing season: high precipitation in previous September resulted in more vulnerable annual rings in the next season. The results are discussed with respect to an “opportunistic behavior” and genetic predisposition to drought sensitivity. PMID:27375672

Solar forcing - implications for the volatile inventory on Mars and Venus. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundin, Rickard

2015-04-01

Planets in the solar system are exposed to a persistent solar forcing by solar irradiation and the solar wind. The forcing, most pronounced for the inner Earth-like planets, ionizes, heats, modifies chemically, and gradually erodes the upper atmosphere throughout the lifetime of the planets. Of the four inner planets, the Earth is at present the only one habitable. Our kin Venus and Mars have taken different evolutionary paths, the present lack of a hydrosphere being the most significant difference. However, there are ample evidence for that an early Noachian, water rich period existed on Mars. Similarly, arguments have been presented for an early water-rich period on Venus. The question is, what made Mars and Venus evolve in such a different way compared to the Earth? Under the assumption of similar initial conditions, the planets may have experienced different externally driven episodes (e.g. impacts) with time. Conversely, internal factors on Mars and Venus made them less resilient, unable to sustain solar forcing on an evolutionary time-scale. The latter has been quantified from simulations, combining atmospheric and ionospheric modeling and empiric data from solar-like stars (Sun in time). In a similar way, semi-empirical models based on experimental data were used to determine the mass-loss of volatiles back in time from Mars and Venus. This presentation will review further aspects of semi-empirical modeling based on ion and energetic neutral atom (ENA) escape data from Mars and Venus - on short term (days), mid-term (solar cycle proxies), long-term (Heliospheric flux proxies, 10 000 year), and on time scales corresponding to the solar evolution.

Using Claims Data to Predict Dependency in Activities of Daily Living as a Proxy for Frailty

PubMed Central

Faurot, Keturah R.; Funk, Michele Jonsson; Pate, Virginia; Brookhart, M. Alan; Patrick, Amanda; Hanson, Laura C.; Castillo, Wendy Camelo; Stürmer, Til

2014-01-01

Purpose Estimating drug effectiveness and safety among older adults in population-based studies using administrative healthcare claims can be hampered by unmeasured confounding due to frailty. A claims-based algorithm that identifies patients likely to be dependent, a proxy for frailty, may improve confounding control. Our objective was to develop an algorithm to predict dependency in activities of daily living (ADL) in a sample of Medicare beneficiaries. Methods Community-dwelling respondents to the 2006 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, >65 years old, with Medicare Part A, B, home health, and hospice claims were included. ADL dependency was defined as needing help with bathing, eating, walking, dressing, toileting, or transferring. Potential predictors were demographics, ICD-9 diagnosis/procedure and durable medical equipment codes for frailty-associated conditions. Multivariable logistic regression was to predict ADL dependency. Cox models estimated hazard ratios for death as a function of observed and predicted ADL dependency. Results Of 6391 respondents, 57% were female, 88% white, and 38% were ≥80. The prevalence of ADL dependency was 9.5%. Strong predictors of ADL dependency were charges for a home hospital bed (OR=5.44, 95% CI=3.28–9.03) and wheelchair (OR=3.91, 95% CI=2.78–5.51). The c-statistic of the final model was 0.845. Model-predicted ADL dependency of 20% or greater was associated with a hazard ratio for death of 3.19 (95% CI: 2.78, 3.68). Conclusions An algorithm for predicting ADL dependency using healthcare claims was developed to measure some aspects of frailty. Accounting for variation in frailty among older adults could lead to more valid conclusions about treatment use, safety, and effectiveness. PMID:25335470

Geomorphic Proxies to Test Strain Accommodation in Southwestern Puerto Rico from Digital Elevation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrios Galindez, I. M.; Xue, L.; Laó-Dávila, D. A.

2017-12-01

The Puerto Rico and the Virgin Island microplate is located in at the northeastern corner of the Caribbean plate boundary with North America is placed within an oblique subduction zone in which strain patterns remain unresolved. Seismic hazard is a major concern in the region as seen from the seismic history of the Caribbean-North America plate boundary zone. Most of the tectonic models of the microplate show the accommodation of strain occurring offshore, despite evidence from seismic activity, trench studies, and geodetic studies suggesting the existence of strain accomodation in southwest Puerto Rico. These studies also suggest active faulting specially in the western part of the island, but limited work has been done regarding their mechanism. Therefore, this work aims to define and map these active faults in western Puerto Rico by integrating data from analysis of fluvial terrains, and detailed mapping using digital elevation model (DEM) extracted from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and LIDAR data. The goal is to (1) identify structural features such as surface lineaments and fault scarps for the Cerro Goden fault, South Lajas fault, and other active faults in the western of Puerto Rico, (2) correlate these information with the distribution pattern and values of the geomorphic proxies, including Chi integral (χ), normalized steepness (ksn) and Asymmetric factor (AF). Our preliminary results from geomorphic proxies and Lidar data provide some insight of the displacement and stage of activities of these faults (e.g. Boqueron-Punta Malva Fault and Cerro Goden fault). Also, the anomaly of the geomorphic proxies generally correlate with the locations of the landslides in the southwestern Puerto Rico. The geomorphic model of this work include new information of active faulting fundamental to produce better seismic hazards maps. Additionally, active tectonics studies are vital to issue and adjust construction buildings codes and zonification codes.

Measuring health-related quality of life in population-based studies of coronary heart disease: comparing six generic indexes and a disease-specific proxy score.

PubMed

Garster, Noelle C; Palta, Mari; Sweitzer, Nancy K; Kaplan, Robert M; Fryback, Dennis G

2009-11-01

To compare HRQoL differences with CHD in generic indexes and a proxy CVD-specific score in a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. The National Health Measurement Study, a cross-sectional random-digit-dialed telephone survey of adults aged 35-89, administered the EQ-5D, QWB-SA, HUI2, HUI3, SF-36v2 (yielding PCS, MCS, and SF-6D), and HALex. Analyses compared 3,350 without CHD (group 1), 265 with CHD not taking chest pain medication (group 2), and 218 with CHD currently taking chest pain medication (group 3), with and without adjustment for demographic variables and comorbidities. Data on 154 patients from heart failure clinics were used to construct a proxy score utilizing generic items probing CVD symptoms. Mean scores differed between CHD groups for all indexes with and without adjustment (P < 0.0001 for all except MCS P = 0.018). Unadjusted group 3 versus 1 differences were about three times larger than for group 2 versus 1. Standardized differences for the proxy score were similar to those for generic indexes, and were about 1.0 for all except MCS for group 3 versus 1. Generic indexes capture differences in HRQoL in population-based studies of CHD similarly to a score constructed from questions probing CVD-specific symptoms.

Inter-Comparison of Lightning Trends from Ground-Based Networks During Severe Weather: Applications Toward GLM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Chris J.; Petersen, Walter A.; Rudlosky, Scott D.; Bateman, Monte; Cecil, Daniel J.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Goodman, Steven J.

2011-01-01

The planned GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) will provide total lightning data on the location and intensity of thunderstorms over a hemispheric spatial domain. Ongoing GOES-R research activities are demonstrating the utility of total flash rate trends for enhancing forecasting skill of severe storms. To date, GLM total lightning proxy trends have been well served by ground-based VHF systems such as the Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA). The NALMA (and other similar networks in Washington DC and Oklahoma) provide high detection efficiency (> 90%) and location accuracy (< 1 km) observations of total lightning within about 150 km from network center. To expand GLM proxy applications for high impact convective weather (e.g., severe, aviation hazards), it is desirable to investigate the utility of additional sources of continuous lightning that can serve as suitable GLM proxy over large spatial scales (order 100 s to 1000 km or more), including typically data denied regions such as the oceans. Potential sources of GLM proxy include ground-based long-range (regional or global) VLF/LF lightning networks such as the relatively new Vaisala Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) and Weatherbug Total Lightning Network (WTLN). Before using these data in GLM research applications, it is necessary to compare them with LMAs and well-quantified cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning networks, such as Vaisala s National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), for assessment of total and CG lightning location accuracy, detection efficiency and flash rate trends. Preliminary inter-comparisons from these lightning networks during selected severe weather events will be presented and their implications discussed.

Strong evidence for the influence of solar cycles on a Late Miocene lake system revealed by biotic and abiotic proxies

PubMed Central

Kern, A.K.; Harzhauser, M.; Piller, W.E.; Mandic, O.; Soliman, A.

2012-01-01

The Late Miocene paleogeography of central Europe and its climatic history are well studied with a resolution of c. 106 years. Small-scale climatic variations are yet unresolved. Observing past climatic change of short periods, however, would encourage the understanding of the modern climatic system. Therefore, past climate archives require a resolution on a decadal to millennial scale. To detect such a short-term evolution, a continuous 6-m-core of the Paleo-Lake Pannon was analyzed in 1-cm-sample distance to provide information as precise and regular as possible. Measurements of the natural gamma radiation and magnetic susceptibility combined with the total abundance of ostracod shells were used as proxies to estimate millennial- to centennial scale environmental changes during the mid-Tortonian warm period. Patterns emerged, but no indisputable age model can be provided for the core, due to the lack of paleomagnetic reversals and the lack of minerals suitable for absolute dating. Therefore, herein we propose another method to determine a hypothetic time frame for these deposits. Based on statistical processes, including Lomb–Scargle and REDFIT periodograms along with Wavelet spectra, several distinct cyclicities could be detected. Calculations considering established off-shore sedimentation rates of the Tortonian Vienna Basin revealed patterns resembling Holocene solar-cycle-records well. The comparison of filtered data of Miocene and Holocene records displays highly similar patterns and comparable modulations. A best-fit adjustment of sedimentation rate results in signals which fit to the lower and upper Gleissberg cycle, the de Vries cycle, the unnamed 500-year- and 1000-year-cycles, as well as the Hallstatt cycle. Each of these cycles has a distinct and unique expression in the investigated environmental proxies, reflecting a complex forcing-system. Hence, a single-proxy-analysis, as often performed on Holocene records, should be considered cautiously as it might fail to capture the full range of solar cycles. PMID:23564975

A Random Forest approach to predict the spatial distribution of sediment pollution in an estuarine system

PubMed Central

Kreakie, Betty J.; Cantwell, Mark G.; Nacci, Diane

2017-01-01

Modeling the magnitude and distribution of sediment-bound pollutants in estuaries is often limited by incomplete knowledge of the site and inadequate sample density. To address these modeling limitations, a decision-support tool framework was conceived that predicts sediment contamination from the sub-estuary to broader estuary extent. For this study, a Random Forest (RF) model was implemented to predict the distribution of a model contaminant, triclosan (5-chloro-2-(2,4-dichlorophenoxy)phenol) (TCS), in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA. TCS is an unregulated contaminant used in many personal care products. The RF explanatory variables were associated with TCS transport and fate (proxies) and direct and indirect environmental entry. The continuous RF TCS concentration predictions were discretized into three levels of contamination (low, medium, and high) for three different quantile thresholds. The RF model explained 63% of the variance with a minimum number of variables. Total organic carbon (TOC) (transport and fate proxy) was a strong predictor of TCS contamination causing a mean squared error increase of 59% when compared to permutations of randomized values of TOC. Additionally, combined sewer overflow discharge (environmental entry) and sand (transport and fate proxy) were strong predictors. The discretization models identified a TCS area of greatest concern in the northern reach of Narragansett Bay (Providence River sub-estuary), which was validated with independent test samples. This decision-support tool performed well at the sub-estuary extent and provided the means to identify areas of concern and prioritize bay-wide sampling. PMID:28738089

Linking the isotopic composition of monthly precipitation, cave drip water and tree ring cellulose - 15 years of monitoring and data-model comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labuhn, Inga; Genty, Dominique; Daux, Valérie; Bourges, François; Hoffmann, Georg

2013-04-01

The isotopic composition of proxies used for palaeoclimate reconstruction, like tree ring cellulose or speleothem calcite, is controlled to a large extent by the isotopic composition of precipitation. In order to calibrate and interpret these proxies in terms of climate, it is necessary to study water isotopes in rainfall and their link with the proxies' source water. We present 10 to 15-year series of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in monthly precipitation from three sites in the south of France, along with corresponding REMOiso model simulations, a monitoring of cave drip water from two of these sites (Villars cave in the south-west and Chauvet cave in the south-east), as well as measurements of oxygen isotopes in tree ring cellulose from oak trees growing in the same area. The isotopic composition of monthly precipitation at the three sites displays a typical annual cycle. At the south-west sites, under Atlantic influence, the interannual variability is much more pronounced during the winter months than during the summer, whereas the south-eastern Mediterranean site shows the same variability throughout the year. The model simulations are able to reproduce the annual cycle of monthly precipitation δ18O as well as the intra-seasonal variability. Compared to the data, however, the modelled average isotopic values and the seasonal amplitude are overestimated. Correlations between temperature and precipitation δ18O are generally weak at all our sites, on both the monthly and the annual scale, even when using temperature averages weighted by the amount of precipitation. Consequently, a proxy which is controlled by the δ18O of precipitation cannot be directly interpreted in terms of temperature in this region. The isotopic composition of cave drip water in both caves remains stable throughout the monitoring period. By calculating different weighted averages of precipitation δ18O for time periods ranging from months to years, we demonstrate that the cave drip water isotopic composition is the result of several years of rainfall mixing. The precipitation of every month must be considered in order to attain the drip water values, which means that rain water infiltrates throughout the year. There is no modification of the soil water isotopic composition by evaporation and no seasonal bias introduced by transpiring plants; they use water from reserves which represents several months or years of mixing. For the interpretation of tree ring cellulose δ18O, this implies that - at least for the monitoring period of 15 years - the source water signal is more or less constant. Therefore, the variability of cellulose δ18O must be mainly due to evaporation at the leaf level, which is strongly dependent on summer temperature. Insights on the variability and temperature correlations of stable isotopes in precipitation and on the origin and composition of cave drip water are important for the interpretation of proxies. Long-term monitoring is needed for model validation, and the locally validated and corrected model can provide longer time series for a reliable proxy calibration.

Impact of Northern Hemisphere polar gateways on the Arctic Ocean climate during the latest Cretaceous as simulated by an Earth System Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niezgodzki, Igor; Knorr, Gregor; Lohmann, Gerrit; Tyszka, Jarosław

2017-04-01

Using the Earth System Model COSMOS, we simulate the Late Cretaceous climate with different gateway configurations in the Arctic Ocean region under constant CO2 level of 1120 ppm (4 x pre-industrial). Based on the Maastrichtian paleogeography, we modify gateway configurations in the Arctic region according to different scenarios recorded from the Campanian - Maastrichtian ( 83-66 Ma). Our simulation with the Greenland-Norwegian Sea even as deep as 1.5 km in the Campanian produces consistent salinities in the Greenland-Norwegian Sea and in the surface Arctic Ocean, with the proxy-based salinity reconstructions. Towards the end of the Maastrichtian the gateway became shallower but didn't close entirely before the K-Pg boundary. During entire interval, the simulated salinity in the Arctic Ocean was well stratified, in agreement with the data. The surface ocean became progressively fresher, starting from the moderately brackish conditions in the Campanian to the (almost) freshwater conditions around the K-Pg boundary. Arctic gateways configuration changes cannot reproduce cooling trends as reconstructed by the proxy data during the Campanian - Maastrichtian interval. Our additional sensitivity tests with the different CO2 levels (1-6 x pre-industrial) and fixed (Maastrichtian) paleogeography show that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 560 ppm to 1120 ppm results in an increase in the zonal mean surface air temperature in the polar regions by as high as 10°C. This suggests that the CO2 level decline, rather than gateway configuration changes, was responsible for the cooling trend toward the end of the Maastrichtian. The research was supported from the grant of the National Science Center in Poland based on the decision DEC-2012/07/N/ST10/03419.

Telling a Compelling Tale, Scientifically Speaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, M.; Hauser, R.; Backlund, P.

2009-12-01

We will examine three strategies for conveying science effectively to a broad audience: making science relevant, accessible, and intriguing. Through an analysis of the dissemination strategy for three research-related stories at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, we explore methods for successful communication of societally relevant science. We will discuss both time-honored and new means of conveying authentic science in a rapidly changing media landscape. This visualization from the Hayden Planetarium's Journey to the Stars shows the generation of magnetic field in the solar convection zone and its connection to a sunspot at the visible surface of the Sun. Note that the sunspot (with a size slightly larger than Earth) is enlarged for better visibility and not in proper scale relative to the Sun. (© 2009, American Museum of Natural History) New research shows that the Arctic reversed a long-term cooling trend and began warming rapidly in recent decades. The graph shows estimates of Arctic temperatures over the last 2,000 years, based on proxy records, the long-term cooling trend, and the recent warming based on actual observations. A 2000-year transient climate simulation with NCAR's Community Climate System Model shows the same overall temperature decrease as does the proxy temperature reconstruction, which gives scientists confidence that their estimates are accurate.

Holocene Temperature Reconstructions from Arctic Lakes based on Alkenone Paleothermometry and Non-Destructive Scanning Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Andrea, W. J.; Balascio, N. L.; Bradley, R. S.; Bakke, J.; Gjerde, M.; Kaufman, D. S.; Briner, J. P.; von Gunten, L.

2014-12-01

Generating continuous, accurate and quantitative Holocene temperature estimates from the Arctic is an ongoing challenge. In many Arctic regions, tree ring-based approaches cannot be used and lake sediments provide the most valuable repositories for extracting paleotemperature information. Advances in lacustrine alkenone paleothermometry now allow for quantitative reconstruction of lake-water temperature based on the UK37 values of sedimentary alkenones. In addition, a recent study demonstrated the efficacy of non-destructive scanning reflectance spectroscopy in the visible range (VIS-RS) for high-resolution quantitative temperature reconstruction from arctic lake sediments1. In this presentation, I will report a new UK37-based temperature reconstruction and a scanning VIS-RS record (using the RABD660;670 index as a measure of sedimentary chlorin content) from Kulusuk Lake in southeastern Greenland (65.6°N, 37.1°W). The UK37 record reveals a ~3°C increase in summer lake water temperatures between ~10ka and ~7ka followed by sustained warmth until ~4ka and a gradual (~3°C) cooling until ~400 yr BP. The strong correlation between UK37 and RABD660;670 measured in the same sediment core provides further evidence that in arctic lakes where temperature regulates primary productivity, and thereby sedimentary chlorin content, these proxies can be combined to develop high-resolution quantitative temperature records. The Holocene temperature history of Kulusuk Lake determined using this approach corresponds to changes in the size of the glaciers adjacent to the lake, as inferred from sediment minerogenic properties measured with scanning XRF. Glaciers retreated during early Holocene warming, likely disappeared during the period of mid-Holocene warmth, and advanced after 4ka. I will also discuss new UK37 and RABD660;670 reconstructions from northwestern Svalbard and the central Brooks Range of Alaska within the framework of published regional temperature reconstructions and model simulations of Holocene temperature around the Arctic. 1. von Gunten, L., D'Andrea, W.J., Bradley, R.S. and Huang, Y., 2012, Proxy-to-proxy calibration: Increasing the temporal resolution of quantitative climate reconstructions. Scientific Reports, v. 2, 609. doi: 10:1038/srep00609.

XRootd, disk-based, caching proxy for optimization of data access, data placement and data replication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauerdick, L. A. T.; Bloom, K.; Bockelman, B.; Bradley, D. C.; Dasu, S.; Dost, J. M.; Sfiligoi, I.; Tadel, A.; Tadel, M.; Wuerthwein, F.; Yagil, A.; Cms Collaboration

2014-06-01

Following the success of the XRootd-based US CMS data federation, the AAA project investigated extensions of the federation architecture by developing two sample implementations of an XRootd, disk-based, caching proxy. The first one simply starts fetching a whole file as soon as a file open request is received and is suitable when completely random file access is expected or it is already known that a whole file be read. The second implementation supports on-demand downloading of partial files. Extensions to the Hadoop Distributed File System have been developed to allow for an immediate fallback to network access when local HDFS storage fails to provide the requested block. Both cache implementations are in pre-production testing at UCSD.

Examining the Association Between Comorbidity Indexes and Functional Status in Hospitalized Medicare Fee-for-Service Beneficiaries

PubMed Central

Graham, James E.; Resnik, Linda; Karmarkar, Amol M.; Deutsch, Anne; Tan, Alai; Al Snih, Soham; Ottenbacher, Kenneth J.

2016-01-01

Background Medicare data from acute hospitals do not contain information on functional status. This lack of information limits the ability to conduct rehabilitation-related health services research. Objective The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between 5 comorbidity indexes derived from acute care claims data and functional status assessed at admission to an inpatient rehabilitation facility (IRF). Comorbidity indexes included tier comorbidity, Functional Comorbidity Index (FCI), Charlson Comorbidity Index, Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, and Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC). Design This was a retrospective cohort study. Methods Medicare beneficiaries with stroke, lower extremity joint replacement, and lower extremity fracture discharged to an IRF in 2011 were studied (N=105,441). Data from the beneficiary summary file, Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MedPAR) file, and Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility–Patient Assessment Instrument (IRF-PAI) file were linked. Inpatient rehabilitation facility admission functional status was used as a proxy for acute hospital discharge functional status. Separate linear regression models for each impairment group were developed to assess the relationships between the comorbidity indexes and functional status. Base models included age, sex, race/ethnicity, disability, dual eligibility, and length of stay. Subsequent models included individual comorbidity indexes. Values of variance explained (R2) with each comorbidity index were compared. Results Base models explained 7.7% of the variance in motor function ratings for stroke, 3.8% for joint replacement, and 7.3% for fracture. The R2 increased marginally when comorbidity indexes were added to base models for stroke, joint replacement, and fracture: Charlson Comorbidity Index (0.4%, 0.5%, 0.3%), tier comorbidity (0.2%, 0.6%, 0.5%), FCI (0.4%, 1.2%, 1.6%), Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (1.2%, 1.9%, 3.5%), and HCC (2.2%, 2.1%, 2.8%). Limitation Patients from 3 impairment categories were included in the sample. Conclusions The 5 comorbidity indexes contributed little to predicting functional status. The indexes examined were not useful as proxies for functional status in the acute settings studied. PMID:26564253

A comparison between self-reported and GIS-based proxies of residential exposure to environmental pollution in a case-control study on lung cancer.

PubMed

Cordioli, M; Ranzi, A; Freni Sterrantino, A; Erspamer, L; Razzini, G; Ferrari, U; Gatti, M G; Bonora, K; Artioli, F; Goldoni, C A; Lauriola, P

2014-06-01

In epidemiological studies both questionnaire results and GIS modeling have been used to assess exposure to environmental risk factors. Nevertheless, few studies have used both these techniques to evaluate the degree of agreement between different exposure assessment methodologies. As part of a case-control study on lung cancer, we present a comparison between self-reported and GIS-derived proxies of residential exposure to environmental pollution. 649 subjects were asked to fill out a questionnaire and give information about residential history and perceived exposure. Using GIS, for each residence we evaluated land use patterns, proximity to major roads and exposure to industrial pollution. We then compared the GIS exposure-index values among groups created on the basis of questionnaire responses. Our results showed a relatively high agreement between the two methods. Although none of these methods is the "exposure gold standard", understanding similarities, weaknesses and strengths of each method is essential to strengthen epidemiological evidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Taking Lessons Learned from a Proxy Application to a Full Application for SNAP and PARTISN

DOE PAGES

Womeldorff, Geoffrey Alan; Payne, Joshua Estes; Bergen, Benjamin Karl

2017-06-09

SNAP is a proxy application which simulates the computational motion of a neutral particle transport code, PARTISN. Here in this work, we have adapted parts of SNAP separately; we have re-implemented the iterative shell of SNAP in the task-model runtime Legion, showing an improvement to the original schedule, and we have created multiple Kokkos implementations of the computational kernel of SNAP, displaying similar performance to the native Fortran. We then translate our Kokkos experiments in SNAP to PARTISN, necessitating engineering development, regression testing, and further thought.

Taking Lessons Learned from a Proxy Application to a Full Application for SNAP and PARTISN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Womeldorff, Geoffrey Alan; Payne, Joshua Estes; Bergen, Benjamin Karl

SNAP is a proxy application which simulates the computational motion of a neutral particle transport code, PARTISN. Here in this work, we have adapted parts of SNAP separately; we have re-implemented the iterative shell of SNAP in the task-model runtime Legion, showing an improvement to the original schedule, and we have created multiple Kokkos implementations of the computational kernel of SNAP, displaying similar performance to the native Fortran. We then translate our Kokkos experiments in SNAP to PARTISN, necessitating engineering development, regression testing, and further thought.

A Paleoclimate Modeling Perspective on the Challenges to Quantifying Paleoelevation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulsen, C. J.; Aron, P.; Feng, R.; Fiorella, R.; Shen, H.; Skinner, C. B.

2016-12-01

Surface elevation is a fundamental characteristic of the land surface. Gradients in elevation associated with mountain ranges are a first order control on local and regional climate; weathering, erosion and nutrient transport; and the evolution and biodiversity of organisms. In addition, surface elevations are a proxy for the geodynamic processes that created them. Efforts to quantify paleoelevation have relied on reconstructions of mineralogical and fossil proxies that preserve environmental signals such as surface temperature, moist enthalpy, or surface water isotopic composition that have been observed to systematically vary with elevation. The challenge to estimating paleoelevation from proxies arises because the modern-day elevation dependence of these environmental parameters is not constant and has differed in the past in response to changes in both surface elevation and other climatic forcings, including greenhouse gas and orbital variations. For example, downward mixing of vapor that is isotopically enriched through troposphere warming under greenhouse forcing reduces the isotopic lapse rate. Without considering these factors, paleoelevation estimates for orogenic systems can be in error by hundreds of meters or more. Isotope-enabled climate models provide a tool for separating the climate response to these forcings into elevation and non-elevation components and for identifying the processes that alter the elevation dependence of environmental parameters. Our past and ongoing work has focused on the simulated climate response to surface uplift of the South American Andes, the North American Cordillera, and the Tibetan-Himalyan system during the Cenozoic, and its implication for interpreting proxy records from these regions. This work demonstrates that the climate response to uplift, and the implications for interpreting proxy records, varies tremendously by region. In this presentation, we synthesize climate responses to uplift across orogens, present new results examining the affect of orbital variations on elevation-dependent environmental parameters, and discuss the implications of our work for quantifying paleoelevations.

Complementary biomarker-based methods for characterising Arctic sea ice conditions: A case study comparison between multivariate analysis and the PIP25 index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köseoğlu, Denizcan; Belt, Simon T.; Smik, Lukas; Yao, Haoyi; Panieri, Giuliana; Knies, Jochen

2018-02-01

The discovery of IP25 as a qualitative biomarker proxy for Arctic sea ice and subsequent introduction of the so-called PIP25 index for semi-quantitative descriptions of sea ice conditions has significantly advanced our understanding of long-term paleo Arctic sea ice conditions over the past decade. We investigated the potential for classification tree (CT) models to provide a further approach to paleo Arctic sea ice reconstruction through analysis of a suite of highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) biomarkers in ca. 200 surface sediments from the Barents Sea. Four CT models constructed using different HBI assemblages revealed IP25 and an HBI triene as the most appropriate classifiers of sea ice conditions, achieving a >90% cross-validated classification rate. Additionally, lower model performance for locations in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) highlighted difficulties in characterisation of this climatically-sensitive region. CT model classification and semi-quantitative PIP25-derived estimates of spring sea ice concentration (SpSIC) for four downcore records from the region were consistent, although agreement between proxy and satellite/observational records was weaker for a core from the west Svalbard margin, likely due to the highly variable sea ice conditions. The automatic selection of appropriate biomarkers for description of sea ice conditions, quantitative model assessment, and insensitivity to the c-factor used in the calculation of the PIP25 index are key attributes of the CT approach, and we provide an initial comparative assessment between these potentially complementary methods. The CT model should be capable of generating longer-term temporal shifts in sea ice conditions for the climatically sensitive Barents Sea.

Guide to solar reference spectra and irradiance models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. Kent

The international standard for determining solar irradiances was published by the International Standards Organization (ISO) in May 2007. The document, ISO 21348 Space Environment (natural and artificial) - Process for determining solar irradiances, describes the process for representing solar irradiances. We report on the next progression of standards work, i.e., the development of a guide that identifies solar reference spectra and irradiance models for use in engineering design or scientific research. This document will be produced as an AIAA Guideline and ISO Technical Report. It will describe the content of the reference spectra and models, uncertainties and limitations, technical basis, data bases from which the reference spectra and models are formed, publication references, and sources of computer code for reference spectra and solar irradiance models, including those which provide spectrally-resolved lines as well as solar indices and proxies and which are generally recognized in the solar sciences. The document is intended to assist aircraft and space vehicle designers and developers, heliophysicists, geophysicists, aeronomers, meteorologists, and climatologists in understanding available models, comparing sources of data, and interpreting engineering and scientific results based on different solar reference spectra and irradiance models.

Towards a new paleotemperature proxy from reef coral occurrences.

PubMed

Lauchstedt, Andreas; Pandolfi, John M; Kiessling, Wolfgang

2017-09-05

Global mean temperature is thought to have exceeded that of today during the last interglacial episode (LIG, ~ 125,000 yrs b.p.) but robust paleoclimate data are still rare in low latitudes. Occurrence data of tropical reef corals may provide new proxies of low latitude sea-surface temperatures. Using modern reef coral distributions we developed a geographically explicit model of sea surface temperatures. Applying this model to coral occurrence data of the LIG provides a latitudinal U-shaped pattern of temperature anomalies with cooler than modern temperatures around the equator and warmer subtropical climes. Our results agree with previously published estimates of LIG temperatures and suggest a poleward broadening of the habitable zone for reef corals during the LIG.

Linear mixed model for heritability estimation that explicitly addresses environmental variation.

PubMed

Heckerman, David; Gurdasani, Deepti; Kadie, Carl; Pomilla, Cristina; Carstensen, Tommy; Martin, Hilary; Ekoru, Kenneth; Nsubuga, Rebecca N; Ssenyomo, Gerald; Kamali, Anatoli; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Widmer, Christian; Sandhu, Manjinder S

2016-07-05

The linear mixed model (LMM) is now routinely used to estimate heritability. Unfortunately, as we demonstrate, LMM estimates of heritability can be inflated when using a standard model. To help reduce this inflation, we used a more general LMM with two random effects-one based on genomic variants and one based on easily measured spatial location as a proxy for environmental effects. We investigated this approach with simulated data and with data from a Uganda cohort of 4,778 individuals for 34 phenotypes including anthropometric indices, blood factors, glycemic control, blood pressure, lipid tests, and liver function tests. For the genomic random effect, we used identity-by-descent estimates from accurately phased genome-wide data. For the environmental random effect, we constructed a covariance matrix based on a Gaussian radial basis function. Across the simulated and Ugandan data, narrow-sense heritability estimates were lower using the more general model. Thus, our approach addresses, in part, the issue of "missing heritability" in the sense that much of the heritability previously thought to be missing was fictional. Software is available at https://github.com/MicrosoftGenomics/FaST-LMM.

Applying cost accounting to operating room staffing in otolaryngology: time-driven activity-based costing and outpatient adenotonsillectomy.

PubMed

Balakrishnan, Karthik; Goico, Brian; Arjmand, Ellis M

2015-04-01

(1) To describe the application of a detailed cost-accounting method (time-driven activity-cased costing) to operating room personnel costs, avoiding the proxy use of hospital and provider charges. (2) To model potential cost efficiencies using different staffing models with the case study of outpatient adenotonsillectomy. Prospective cost analysis case study. Tertiary pediatric hospital. All otolaryngology providers and otolaryngology operating room staff at our institution. Time-driven activity-based costing demonstrated precise per-case and per-minute calculation of personnel costs. We identified several areas of unused personnel capacity in a basic staffing model. Per-case personnel costs decreased by 23.2% by allowing a surgeon to run 2 operating rooms, despite doubling all other staff. Further cost reductions up to a total of 26.4% were predicted with additional staffing rearrangements. Time-driven activity-based costing allows detailed understanding of not only personnel costs but also how personnel time is used. This in turn allows testing of alternative staffing models to decrease unused personnel capacity and increase efficiency. © American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2015.

Among nonagenarians, congruence between self-rated and proxy-rated health was low but both predicted mortality.

PubMed

Vuorisalmi, Merja; Sarkeala, Tytti; Hervonen, Antti; Jylhä, Marja

2012-05-01

The congruence between self-rated global health (SRH) and proxy-rated global health (PRH), the factors associated with congruence between SRH and PRH, and their associations with mortality are examined using data from the Vitality 90+ study. The data consist of 213 pairs of subjects--aged 90 years and older--and proxies. The relationship between SRH and PRH was analyzed by chi-square test and Cohen's kappa. Logistic regression analysis was used to find out the factors that are associated with the congruence between health ratings. The association between SRH and PRH with mortality was studied using Cox proportional hazard models. The subjects rated their health more negatively than the proxies. Kappa value indicated only slight congruence between SRH and PRH, and they also predicted mortality differently. Good self-reported functional ability was associated with congruence between SRH and PRH. The results imply that the evaluation processes of SRH and PRH differ, and the measures are not directly interchangeable. Both measures are useful health indicators in very old age but SRH cannot be replaced by PRH in analyses. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating north pacific summer sea-level pressure back to 1600 using proxy climate records from China and North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xiangding; Lough, J. M.

1987-03-01

Sea-level pressure variations over the North Pacific Ocean influence the surface climate conditions of China and western North America. Documentary records of precipitation in China data back to the mid-15th century, and a well-replicated network of tree-ring chronologies from western North America dates to the early 17th century. These proxy climate records are used separately and together to estimate sea-level pressure variations over the North Pacific back to 1600 A.D. The models are calibrated over the period 1899 to 1950 and verified over the independent period, 1951 to 1963. The best estimates, derived from predictors in China and western North America, calibrate 44.7 % of summer sea-level pressure variance. The study demonstrates the potential of combining different proxy data sources to derive estimates of past climate.

Soil Dust Aerosols and Wind as Predictors of Seasonal Meningitis Incidence in Niger

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perez Garcia Pando, Carlos; Stanton, Michelle C.; Diggle, Peter J.; Trzaska, Sylwia; Miller, Ron L.; Perlwitz, Jan P.; Baldasano, Jose M.; Cuevas, Emilio; Ceccato, Pietro; Yaka, Pascal;

Assessment of scintillation proxy maps for a scintillation study during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed conditions over Uganda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amabayo, Emirant B.; Jurua, Edward; Cilliers, Pierre J.

2017-02-01

The objective of this paper is demonstrate the validity and usefulness of scintillation proxies derived from IGS data, through its comparison with data from dedicated scintillation monitors and its application to GNSS scintillation patterns. The paper presents scintillation patterns developed by using data from the dedicated scintillation monitors of the scintillation network decision aid (SCINDA) network, and proxy maps derived from IGS GPS data for 2011 and 2012 over low latitude stations in Uganda. The amplitude and phase scintillation indicies (S4 and σΦ) were obtained from the Novatel GSV4004B ionospheric scintillation and total electron content (TEC) monitor managed by SCINDA at Makerere (0.340N, 32.570E). The corresponding IGS GPS proxy data were obtained from the receivers at Entebbe (0.040N, 32.440E) and Mbarara (0.600S, 30.740E). The derived amplitude (S4p) and phase (sDPR) scintillation proxy maps were compared with maps of S4 and σΦ during geomagnetic storms (moderate and strong) and geomagnetically quiet conditions. The scintillation patterns using S4 and σΦ and their respective proxies revealed similar diurnal and seasonal patterns of strong scintillation occurrence. The peaks of scintillation occurrence with mean values in the range 0.3 < (S4p , sDPR) ≤ 0.6 were observed during nighttime (17:00-22:00 UT) and in the months of March-April and September-October. The results also indicate that high level scintillations occur during geomagnetically disturbed (moderate and strong) and quiet conditions over the Ugandan region. The results show that SCINDA and IGS based scintillation patterns reveal the same nighttime and seasonal occurrence of irregularities over Uganda irrespective of the geomagnetic conditions. Therefore, the amplitude and phase scintillation proxies presented here can be used to fill gaps in low-latitude data where there are no data available from dedicated scintillation receivers, irrespective of the geomagnetic conditions.

Delineating managed land for reporting national greenhouse gas emissions and removals to the United Nations framework convention on climate change.

PubMed

Ogle, Stephen M; Domke, Grant; Kurz, Werner A; Rocha, Marcelo T; Huffman, Ted; Swan, Amy; Smith, James E; Woodall, Christopher; Krug, Thelma

2018-05-29

Land use and management activities have a substantial impact on carbon stocks and associated greenhouse gas emissions and removals. However, it is challenging to discriminate between anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic sources and sinks from land. To address this problem, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change developed a managed land proxy to determine which lands are contributing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Governments report all emissions and removals from managed land to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change based on this proxy, and policy interventions to reduce emissions from land use are expected to focus on managed lands. Our objective was to review the use of the managed land proxy, and summarize the criteria that governments have applied to classify land as managed and unmanaged. We found that the large majority of governments are not reporting on their application of the managed land proxy. Among the governments that do provide information, most have assigned all area in specific land uses as managed, while designating all remaining lands as unmanaged. This designation as managed land is intuitive for croplands and settlements, which would not exist without management interventions, but a portion of forest land, grassland, and wetlands may not be managed in a country. Consequently, Brazil, Canada and the United States have taken the concept further and delineated managed and unmanaged forest land, grassland and wetlands, using additional criteria such as functional use of the land and accessibility of the land to anthropogenic activity. The managed land proxy is imperfect because reported emissions from any area can include non-anthropogenic sources, such as natural disturbances. However, the managed land proxy does make reporting of GHG emissions and removals from land use more tractable and comparable by excluding fluxes from areas that are not directly influenced by anthropogenic activity. Moreover, application of the managed land proxy can be improved by incorporating additional criteria that allow for further discrimination between managed and unmanaged land.

Sao Paulo Lightning Mapping Array (SP-LMA): Network Assessment and Analyses for Intercomparison Studies and GOES-R Proxy Activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blakeslee, R. J.; Bailey, J. C.; Carey, L. D.; Goodman, S. J.; Rudlosky, S. D.; Albrecht, R.; Morales, C. A.; Anselmo, E. M.; Neves, J. R.

2013-01-01

A 12 station Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) network was deployed during October 2011in the vicinity of São Paulo, Brazil (SP-LMA) to contribute total lightning measurements to an international field campaign [CHUVA - Cloud processes of tHe main precipitation systems in Brazil: A contribUtion to cloud resolVing modeling and to the GPM (GlobAl Precipitation Measurement)]. The SP-LMA was operational from November 2011 through March 2012. Sensor spacing was on the order of 15-30 km, with a network diameter on the order of 40-50km. The SP-LMA provides good 3-D lightning mapping out to150 km from the network center, with 2-D coverage considerably farther. In addition to supporting CHUVA science/mission objectives, the SP-LMA is supporting the generation of unique proxy data for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), on NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R: scheduled for a 2015 launch). These proxy data will be used to develop and validate operational algorithms so that they will be ready to use on "day1" following the GOES-R launch. The SP-LMA data also will be intercompared with lightning observations from other deployed lightning networks to advance our understanding of the capabilities/contributions of each of these networks toward GLM proxy and validation activities. This paper addresses the network assessment and analyses for intercomparison studies and GOES-R proxy activities

Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming: roles of behaviour, physiology and adaptation.

PubMed

Huey, Raymond B; Kearney, Michael R; Krockenberger, Andrew; Holtum, Joseph A M; Jess, Mellissa; Williams, Stephen E

2012-06-19

A recently developed integrative framework proposes that the vulnerability of a species to environmental change depends on the species' exposure and sensitivity to environmental change, its resilience to perturbations and its potential to adapt to change. These vulnerability criteria require behavioural, physiological and genetic data. With this information in hand, biologists can predict organisms most at risk from environmental change. Biologists and managers can then target organisms and habitats most at risk. Unfortunately, the required data (e.g. optimal physiological temperatures) are rarely available. Here, we evaluate the reliability of potential proxies (e.g. critical temperatures) that are often available for some groups. Several proxies for ectotherms are promising, but analogous ones for endotherms are lacking. We also develop a simple graphical model of how behavioural thermoregulation, acclimation and adaptation may interact to influence vulnerability over time. After considering this model together with the proxies available for physiological sensitivity to climate change, we conclude that ectotherms sharing vulnerability traits seem concentrated in lowland tropical forests. Their vulnerability may be exacerbated by negative biotic interactions. Whether tropical forest (or other) species can adapt to warming environments is unclear, as genetic and selective data are scant. Nevertheless, the prospects for tropical forest ectotherms appear grim.

Holocene shifts of the southern westerlies across the South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, Ines; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; Prange, Matthias; Mulitza, Stefan; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Varma, Vidya; Henrich, Ruediger

2015-02-01

The southern westerly winds (SWW) exert a crucial influence over the world ocean and climate. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of the Holocene temporal and spatial evolution of the SWW remains a significant challenge due to the sparsity of high-resolution marine archives and appropriate SWW proxies. Here we present a north-south transect of high-resolution planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope records from the western South Atlantic. Our proxy records reveal Holocene migrations of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC), a highly sensitive feature for changes in the position and strength of the northern portion of the SWW. Through the tight coupling of the BMC position to the large-scale wind field, the records allow a quantitative reconstruction of Holocene latitudinal displacements of the SWW across the South Atlantic. Our data reveal a gradual poleward movement of the SWW by about 1-1.5° from the early to the mid-Holocene. Afterward, variability in the SWW is dominated by millennial scale displacements on the order of 1° in latitude with no recognizable longer-term trend. These findings are confronted with results from a state-of-the-art transient Holocene climate simulation using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Proxy-inferred and modeled SWW shifts compare qualitatively, but the model underestimates both orbitally forced multimillennial and internal millennial SWW variability by almost an order of magnitude. The underestimated natural variability implies a substantial uncertainty in model projections of future SWW shifts.

The Effect of an Extreme and Prolonged Population Bottleneck on Patterns of Deleterious Variation: Insights from the Greenlandic Inuit.

PubMed

Pedersen, Casper-Emil T; Lohmueller, Kirk E; Grarup, Niels; Bjerregaard, Peter; Hansen, Torben; Siegismund, Hans R; Moltke, Ida; Albrechtsen, Anders

2017-02-01

The genetic consequences of population bottlenecks on patterns of deleterious genetic variation in human populations are of tremendous interest. Based on exome sequencing of 18 Greenlandic Inuit we show that the Inuit have undergone a severe ∼20,000-year-long bottleneck. This has led to a markedly more extreme distribution of allele frequencies than seen for any other human population tested to date, making the Inuit the perfect population for investigating the effect of a bottleneck on patterns of deleterious variation. When comparing proxies for genetic load that assume an additive effect of deleterious alleles, the Inuit show, at most, a slight increase in load compared to European, East Asian, and African populations. Specifically, we observe <4% increase in the number of derived deleterious alleles in the Inuit. In contrast, proxies for genetic load under a recessive model suggest that the Inuit have a significantly higher load (20% increase or more) compared to other less bottlenecked human populations. Forward simulations under realistic models of demography support our empirical findings, showing up to a 6% increase in the genetic load for the Inuit population across all models of dominance. Further, the Inuit population carries fewer deleterious variants than other human populations, but those that are present tend to be at higher frequency than in other populations. Overall, our results show how recent demographic history has affected patterns of deleterious variants in human populations. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Spatio-Temporal Convergence of Maximum Daily Light-Use Efficiency Based on Radiation Absorption by Canopy Chlorophyll

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Wolf, Sebastian; Wu, Jin; Wu, Xiaocui; Gioli, Beniamino; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Cescatti, Alessandro; van der Tol, Christiaan; Zhou, Sha; Gough, Christopher M.; Gentine, Pierre; Zhang, Yongguang; Steinbrecher, Rainer; Ardö, Jonas

2018-04-01

Light-use efficiency (LUE), which quantifies the plants' efficiency in utilizing solar radiation for photosynthetic carbon fixation, is an important factor for gross primary production estimation. Here we use satellite-based solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence as a proxy for photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by chlorophyll (APARchl) and derive an estimation of the fraction of APARchl (fPARchl) from four remotely sensed vegetation indicators. By comparing maximum LUE estimated at different scales from 127 eddy flux sites, we found that the maximum daily LUE based on PAR absorption by canopy chlorophyll (ɛmaxchl), unlike other expressions of LUE, tends to converge across biome types. The photosynthetic seasonality in tropical forests can also be tracked by the change of fPARchl, suggesting the corresponding ɛmaxchl to have less seasonal variation. This spatio-temporal convergence of LUE derived from fPARchl can be used to build simple but robust gross primary production models and to better constrain process-based models.

Earth System Grid and EGI interoperability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raciazek, J.; Petitdidier, M.; Gemuend, A.; Schwichtenberg, H.

2012-04-01

The Earth Science data centers have developed a data grid called Earth Science Grid Federation (ESGF) to give the scientific community world wide access to CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5) climate data. The CMIP5 data will permit to evaluate the impact of climate change in various environmental and societal areas, such as regional climate, extreme events, agriculture, insurance… The ESGF grid provides services like searching, browsing and downloading of datasets. At the security level, ESGF data access is protected by an authentication mechanism. An ESGF trusted X509 Short-Lived EEC certificate with the correct roles/attributes is required to get access to the data in a non-interactive way (e.g. from a worker node). To access ESGF from EGI (i.e. by earth science applications running on EGI infrastructure), the security incompatibility between the two grids is the challenge: the EGI proxy certificate is not ESGF trusted nor it contains the correct roles/attributes. To solve this problem, we decided to use a Credential Translation Service (CTS) to translate the EGI X509 proxy certificate into the ESGF Short-Lived EEC certificate (the CTS will issue ESGF certificates based on EGI certificate authentication). From the end user perspective, the main steps to use the CTS are: the user binds his two identities (EGI and ESGF) together in the CTS using the CTS web interface (this steps has to be done only once) and then request an ESGF Short-Lived EEC certificate every time is needed, using a command-line tools. The implementation of the CTS is on-going. It is based on the open source MyProxy software stack, which is used in many grid infrastructures. On the client side, the "myproxy-logon" command-line tools is used to request the certificate translation. A new option has been added to "myproxy-logon" to select the original certificate (in our case, the EGI one). On the server side, MyProxy server operates in Certificate Authority mode, with a new module to store and manage identity pairs. Many European teams are working on the impact of climate change and face the problem of a lack of compute resources in connection with large data sets. This work between the ES VRC in EGI-Inspire and ESGF will be important to facilitate the exploitation of the CMIP5 data on EGI.

Solar Cycle Driven Environmental Changes on Decadal to Centennial Scale of Late Miocene Lake Sediments (tortonian, Lake Pannon, Central Europe)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piller, W. E.; Kern, A. K.; Harzhauser, M.; Soliman, A.; Mandic, O.

2012-12-01

High time resolution is a key issue in reconstructing past climate systems. This is of particular importance when searching for model predictions of future climate change, such as the warm Late Miocene. For this study we selected Lake Pannon, a paleo-ancient, alkaline, brackish lake in Europe during the Tortonian (early Late Miocene). On a continuous sediment core including the interval from ca. 10.5 - 10.4 Ma we show the power of high resolution multiproxy analyses for reconstructing paleoclimatology on a decadal scale over several millennia of Late Miocene time. To demonstrate this high-resolution interpretation we selected a core from the western margin of Lake Pannon and studied it in respect to 2 different time resolutions. A continuous 6-m-core clearly displays regular fluctuations and modulations within three different environmental proxies (natural gamma radiation, magnetic susceptibility, total abundance of ostracods). Lomb-Scargle and REDFIT periodograms next to wavelet spectra of all data sets reveal distinct frequencies. Only few of these are deciphered in all proxy data sets at the same power, while some occur only in two or one proxies. A higher resolution study was conducted on a 1.5-m-long core interval based on pollen and dinoflagellate cysts, ostracod abundance, carbon and sulfur contents as well as magnetic susceptibility and natural gamma radiation. Based on an already established age model the study covers about two millennia of Late Miocene time with a resolution of ~13.7 years per sample. No major ecological turnovers are expected in respect to this very short interval. Thus, the pollen record suggests rather stable wetland vegetation with a forested hinterland. Shifts in the spectra can be mainly attributed to variations in transport mechanism, represented by few phases of fluvial input but mainly by changes in wind intensity and probably also wind direction. Even within this short time span, dinoflagellates document rapid changes between oligotrophic and eutrophic conditions, which are frequently coupled with lake stratification and dysoxic bottom waters. These phases prevented ostracods and molluscs from settling and fostered the activity of sulfur bacteria. Several of the studied proxies reveal iterative patterns. To compare and detect these repetitive signals REDFIT spectra were generated and Gaussian filters were applied. The resulting cycles correspond to the lower and upper Gleissberg, the de Vries/Suess, the unnamed 500-year, 1000-year 1,500-year and the Hallstatt cycles. To test the solar-forcing-hypothesis, our data have been compared with those from a Holocene isotope dataset. Our data represent a first unequivocal detection of solar cycles in pre-Pleistocene sediments.

Strategies for efficient resolution analysis in full-waveform inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fichtner, A.; van Leeuwen, T.; Trampert, J.

2016-12-01

Full-waveform inversion is developing into a standard method in the seismological toolbox. It combines numerical wave propagation for heterogeneous media with adjoint techniques in order to improve tomographic resolution. However, resolution becomes increasingly difficult to quantify because of the enormous computational requirements. Here we present two families of methods that can be used for efficient resolution analysis in full-waveform inversion. They are based on the targeted extraction of resolution proxies from the Hessian matrix, which is too large to store and to compute explicitly. Fourier methods rest on the application of the Hessian to Earth models with harmonic oscillations. This yields the Fourier spectrum of the Hessian for few selected wave numbers, from which we can extract properties of the tomographic point-spread function for any point in space. Random probing methods use uncorrelated, random test models instead of harmonic oscillations. Auto-correlating the Hessian-model applications for sufficiently many test models also characterises the point-spread function. Both Fourier and random probing methods provide a rich collection of resolution proxies. These include position- and direction-dependent resolution lengths, and the volume of point-spread functions as indicator of amplitude recovery and inter-parameter trade-offs. The computational requirements of these methods are equivalent to approximately 7 conjugate-gradient iterations in full-waveform inversion. This is significantly less than the optimisation itself, which may require tens to hundreds of iterations to reach convergence. In addition to the theoretical foundations of the Fourier and random probing methods, we show various illustrative examples from real-data full-waveform inversion for crustal and mantle structure.