Watershed scale response to climate change--Sprague River Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Sprague River Basin near Chiloquin, Oregon.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Black Earth Creek Basin, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Westenbroek, Steven M.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Black Earth Creek Basin, Wisconsin.

Watershed scale response to climate change--East River Basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William A.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the East River Basin, Colorado.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Naches River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Naches River Basin below Tieton River in Washington.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Flint River Basin, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Flint River Basin at Montezuma, Georgia.

Simulation of streamflow in small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Norris, J.M.

1989-01-01

Coal mining operations in northwestern Colorado commonly are located in areas that have minimal available water-resource information. Drainage-basin models can be a method for extending water-resource information to include periods for which there are no records or to transfer the information to areas that have no streamflow-gaging stations. To evaluate the magnitude and variability of the components of the water balance in the small drainage basins monitored, and to provide some method for transfer of hydrologic data, the U.S. Geological Survey 's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was used for small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin to simulate daily mean streamflow using daily precipitation and air-temperature data. The study area was divided into three hydrologic regions, and in each of these regions, three drainage basins were monitored. Two of the drainage basins in each region were used to calibrate the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The model was not calibrated for the third drainage basin in each region; instead, parameter values were transferred from the model that was calibrated for the two drainage basins. For all of the drainage basins except one, period of record used for calibration and verification included water years 1976-81. Simulated annual volumes of streamflow for drainage basins used in calibration compared well with observed values; individual hydrographs indicated timing differences between the observed and simulated daily mean streamflow. Observed and simulated annual average streamflows compared well for the periods of record, but values of simulated high and low streamflows were different than observed values. Similar results were obtained when calibrated model parameter values were transferred to drainage basins that were uncalibrated. (USGS)

Structural model of the San Bernardino basin, California, from analysis of gravity, aeromagnetic, and seismicity data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, M.; Matti, J.; Jachens, R.

2004-01-01

The San Bernardino basin is an area of Quaternary extension between the San Jacinto and San Andreas Fault zones in southern California. New gravity data are combined with aeromagnetic data to produce two- and three-dimensional models of the basin floor. These models are used to identify specific faults that have normal displacements. In addition, aeromagnetic maps of the basin constrain strike-slip offset on many faults. Relocated seismicity, focal mechanisms, and a seismic reflection profile for the basin area support interpretations of the gravity and magnetic anomalies. The shape of the basin revealed by our interpretations is different from past interpretations, broadening its areal extent while confining the deepest parts to an area along the modern San Jacinto fault, west of the city of San Bernardino. Through these geophysical observations and related geologic information, we propose a model for the development of the basin. The San Jacinto fault-related strike-slip displacements started on fault strands in the basin having a stepping geometry thus forming a pull-apart graben, and finally cut through the graben in a simpler, bending geometry. In this model, the San Bernardino strand of the San Andreas Fault has little influence on the formation of the basin. The deep, central part of the basin resembles classic pull-apart structures and our model describes a high level of detail for this structure that can be compared to other pull-apart structures as well as analog and numerical models in order to better understand timing and kinematics of pull-apart basin formation. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Structural model of the San Bernardino basin, California, from analysis of gravity, aeromagnetic, and seismicity data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Megan; Matti, Jonathan; Jachens, Robert

2004-04-01

The San Bernardino basin is an area of Quaternary extension between the San Jacinto and San Andreas Fault zones in southern California. New gravity data are combined with aeromagnetic data to produce two- and three-dimensional models of the basin floor. These models are used to identify specific faults that have normal displacements. In addition, aeromagnetic maps of the basin constrain strike-slip offset on many faults. Relocated seismicity, focal mechanisms, and a seismic reflection profile for the basin area support interpretations of the gravity and magnetic anomalies. The shape of the basin revealed by our interpretations is different from past interpretations, broadening its areal extent while confining the deepest parts to an area along the modern San Jacinto fault, west of the city of San Bernardino. Through these geophysical observations and related geologic information, we propose a model for the development of the basin. The San Jacinto fault-related strike-slip displacements started on fault strands in the basin having a stepping geometry thus forming a pull-apart graben, and finally cut through the graben in a simpler, bending geometry. In this model, the San Bernardino strand of the San Andreas Fault has little influence on the formation of the basin. The deep, central part of the basin resembles classic pull-apart structures and our model describes a high level of detail for this structure that can be compared to other pull-apart structures as well as analog and numerical models in order to better understand timing and kinematics of pull-apart basin formation.

Evaluating Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates for Basin-scale Hydrologic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, K. K.; Hogue, T. S.; Hsu, K.; Gupta, H. V.; Mahani, S. E.; Sorooshian, S.

2003-12-01

The reliability of any hydrologic simulation and basin outflow prediction effort depends primarily on the rainfall estimates. The problem of estimating rainfall becomes more obvious in basins with scarce or no rain gauges. We present an evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates for basin-scale hydrologic modeling with particular interest in ungauged basins. The initial phase of this study focuses on comparison of mean areal rainfall estimates from ground-based rain gauge network, NEXRAD radar Stage-III, and satellite-based PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and their influence on hydrologic model simulations over several basins in the U.S. Six-hourly accumulations of the above competing mean areal rainfall estimates are used as input to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model. Preliminary experiments for the Leaf River Basin in Mississippi, for the period of March 2000 - June 2002, reveals that seasonality plays an important role in the comparison. There is an overestimation during the summer and underestimation during the winter in satellite-based rainfall with respect to the competing rainfall estimates. The consequence of this result on the hydrologic model is that simulated discharge underestimates the major observed peak discharges during early spring for the basin under study. Future research will entail developing correction procedures, which depend on different factors such as seasonality, geographic location and basin size, for satellite-based rainfall estimates over basins with dense rain gauge network and/or radar coverage. Extension of these correction procedures to satellite-based rainfall estimates over ungauged basins with similar characteristics has the potential for reducing the input uncertainty in ungauged basin modeling efforts.

Impact of different detachment topographies on pull-apart basin evolution - analog modelling and computer visualisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoprich, M.; Decker, K.; Grasemann, B.; Sokoutis, D.; Willingshofer, E.

2009-04-01

Former analog modeling on pull-apart basins dealt with different sidestep geometries, the symmetry and ratio between velocities of moving blocks, the ratio between ductile base and model thickness, the ratio between fault stepover and model thickness and their influence on basin evolution. In all these models the pull-apart basin is deformed over an even detachment. The Vienna basin, however, is considered a classical thin-skinned pull-apart with a rather peculiar basement structure. Deformation and basin evolution are believed to be limited to the brittle upper crust above the Alpine-Carpathian floor thrust. The latter is not a planar detachment surface, but has a ramp-shaped topography draping the underlying former passive continental margin. In order to estimate the effects of this special geometry, nine experiments were accomplished and the resulting structures were compared with the Vienna basin. The key parameters for the models (fault and basin geometry, detachment depth and topography) were inferred from a 3D GoCad model of the natural Vienna basin, which was compiled from seismic, wells and geological cross sections. The experiments were scaled 1:100.000 ("Ramberg-scaling" for brittle rheology) and built of quartz sand (300 µm grain size). An average depth of 6 km (6 cm) was calculated for the basal detachment, distances between the bounding strike-slip faults of 40 km (40 cm) and a finite length of the natural basin of 200 km were estimated (initial model length: 100 cm). The following parameters were changed through the experimental process: (1) syntectonic sedimentation; (2) the stepover angle between bounding strike slip faults and basal velocity discontinuity; (3) moving of one or both fault blocks (producing an asymmetrical or symmetrical basin); (4) inclination of the basal detachment surface by 5°; (6) installation of 2 and 3 ramp systems at the detachment; (7) simulation of a ductile detachment through a 0.4 cm thick PDMS layer at the basin floor. The surface of the model was photographed after each deformation increment through the experiment. Pictures of serial cross sections cut through the models in their final state every 4 cm were also taken and interpreted. The formation of en-echelon normal faults with relay ramps is observed in all models. These faults are arranged in an acute angle to the basin borders, according to a Riedel-geometry. In the case of an asymmetric basin they emerge within the non-moving fault block. Substantial differences between the models are the number, the distance and the angle of these Riedel faults, the length of the bounding strike-slip faults and the cross basin symmetry. A flat detachment produces straight fault traces, whereas inclined detachments (or inclined ramps) lead to "bending" of the normal faults, rollover and growth strata thickening towards the faults. Positions and the sizes of depocenters also vary, with depocenters preferably developing above ramp-flat-transitions. Depocenter thicknesses increase with ramp heights. A similar relation apparently exists in the natural Vienna basin, which shows ramp-like structures in the detachment just underneath large faults like the Steinberg normal fault and the associated depocenters. The 3-ramp-model also reveals segmentation of the basin above the lowermost ramp. The evolving structure is comparable to the Wiener Neustadt sub-basin in the southern part of the Vienna basin, which is underlain by a topographical high of the detachment. Cross sections through the ductile model show a strong disintergration into a horst-and-graben basin. The thin silicon putty base influences the overlying strata in a way that the basin - unlike the "dry" sand models - becomes very flat and shallow. The top view shows an irregular basin shape and no rhombohedral geometry, which characterises the Vienna basin. The ductile base also leads to a symmetrical distribution of deformation on both fault blocks, even though only one fault block is moved. The stepover angle, the influence of gravitation in a ramp or inclined system and the strain accomodation by a viscous silicone layer can be summarized as factors controlling the characteristics of the models.

Classification of Prairie basins by their hysteretic connected functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shook, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.

2017-12-01

Diagnosing climate change impacts in the post-glacial landscapes of the North American Prairies through hydrological modelling is made difficult by drainage basin physiography. The region is cold, dry and flat with poorly developed stream networks, and so the basin area that is hydrologically connected to the stream outlet varies with basin depressional storage. The connected area controls the contributing area for runoff reaching the stream outlet. As depressional storage fills, ponds spill from one to another; the chain of spilling ponds allows water to flow over the landscape and increases the connected area of the basin. As depressional storage decreases, the connected fraction drops dramatically. Detailed, fine-scale models and remote sensing have shown that the relationship between connected area and the depressional storage is hysteretic in Prairie basins and that the nature of hysteresis varies with basin physiography. This hysteresis needs to be represented in hydrological models to calculate contributing area, and therefore streamflow hydrographs. Parameterisations of the hysteresis are needed for large-scale models used for climate change diagnosis. However, use of parameterisations of hysteresis requires guidance on how to represent them for a particular basin. This study shows that it is possible to relate the shape of hysteretic functions as determined by detailed models to the overall physiography of the basin, such as the fraction of the basin below the outlet, and remote sensing estimates of depressional storage, using the size distribution and location of maximum ponded water areas. By classifying basin physiography, the hysteresis of connected area - storage relationships can be estimated for basins that do not have high-resolution topographic data, and without computationally-expensive high-resolution modelling.

Three-dimensional modeling of pull-apart basins: implications for the tectonics of the Dead Sea Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Katzman, Rafael; ten Brink, Uri S.; Lin, Jian

1995-01-01

We model the three-dimensional (3-D) crustal deformation in a deep pull-apart basin as a result of relative plate motion along a transform system and compare the results to the tectonics of the Dead Sea Basin. The brittle upper crust is modeled by a boundary element technique as an elastic block, broken by two en echelon semi-infinite vertical faults. The deformation is caused by a horizontal displacement that is imposed everywhere at the bottom of the block except in a stress-free “shear zone” in the vicinity of the fault zone. The bottom displacement represents the regional relative plate motion. Results show that the basin deformation depends critically on the width of the shear zone and on the amount of overlap between basin-bounding faults. As the width of the shear zone increases, the depth of the basin decreases, the rotation around a vertical axis near the fault tips decreases, and the basin shape (the distribution of subsidence normalized by the maximum subsidence) becomes broader. In contrast, two-dimensional plane stress modeling predicts a basin shape that is independent of the width of the shear zone. Our models also predict full-graben profiles within the overlapped region between bounding faults and half-graben shapes elsewhere. Increasing overlap also decreases uplift near the fault tips and rotation of blocks within the basin. We suggest that the observed structure of the Dead Sea Basin can be described by a 3-D model having a large overlap (more than 30 km) that probably increased as the basin evolved as a result of a stable shear motion that was distributed laterally over 20 to 40 km.

Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Haj, Adel E.; Risley, John C.

2017-10-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa.The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models of 12 river basins in western Iowa will provide water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites and aid in environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects.

Basin-scale hydrogeologic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Person, Mark; Raffensperger, Jeff P.; Ge, Shemin; Garven, Grant

1996-02-01

Mathematical modeling of coupled groundwater flow, heat transfer, and chemical mass transport at the sedimentary basin scale has been increasingly used by Earth scientists studying a wide range of geologic processes including the formation of excess pore pressures, infiltration-driven metamorphism, heat flow anomalies, nuclear waste isolation, hydrothermal ore genesis, sediment diagenesis, basin tectonics, and petroleum generation and migration. These models have provided important insights into the rates and pathways of groundwater migration through basins, the relative importance of different driving mechanisms for fluid flow, and the nature of coupling between the hydraulic, thermal, chemical, and stress regimes. The mathematical descriptions of basin transport processes, the analytical and numerical solution methods employed, and the application of modeling to sedimentary basins around the world are the subject of this review paper. The special considerations made to represent coupled transport processes at the basin scale are emphasized. Future modeling efforts will probably utilize three-dimensional descriptions of transport processes, incorporate greater information regarding natural geological heterogeneity, further explore coupled processes, and involve greater field applications.

Estuarine Channel Evolution in Response to Closure of Secondary Basins: An Observational and Morphodynamic Modeling Study of the Western Scheldt Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nnafie, A.; Van Oyen, T.; De Maerschalck, B.; van der Vegt, M.; Wegen, M. van der

2018-01-01

The fringes of estuaries are often characterized by the presence of side embayments (secondary basins), with dimensions in the order of hundreds of meters to tens of kilometers. The presence of secondary basins significantly alters the hydrodynamic and sediment characteristics in the main estuary, implying that loss of secondary basin area due to human interventions might affect the estuarine morphodynamics. Analysis of historical bathymetric data of the Western Scheldt Estuary (Netherlands) suggests that closure of its secondary basins has triggered the observed lateral displacement of the nearby channels. This analysis motivated investigation of the impact of secondary basins on decadal evolution of estuarine channels, using the numerical model Delft3D. Model results show that channels that form near a secondary basin are located farther away from the bank of the estuary with respect to their positions in the case without a basin. Overall, results in cases with two or three basins are similar to those in case with one single basin. The wider the basin, the farther away the nearby channel forms. Removing a secondary basin causes a lateral displacement of the nearby channel toward the bank, indicating that the observed lateral displacement of channels in the Western Scheldt is triggered by closure of its secondary basins. The physical explanation is that tidal currents in the main estuary are weaker and more rotary near secondary basins, favoring sediment deposition and shoal development at these locations. Model results are particularly relevant for estuaries with moderate to high friction and converging width.

Comprehensive Representation of Hydrologic and Geomorphic Process Coupling in Numerical Models: Internal Dynamics and Basin Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istanbulluoglu, E.; Vivoni, E. R.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Bras, R. L.

2005-12-01

Landscape morphology has an important control on the spatial and temporal organization of basin hydrologic response to climate forcing, affecting soil moisture redistribution as well as vegetation function. On the other hand, erosion, driven by hydrology and modulated by vegetation, produces landforms over geologic time scales that reflect characteristic signatures of the dominant land forming process. Responding to extreme climate events or anthropogenic disturbances of the land surface, infrequent but rapid forms of erosion (e.g., arroyo development, landsliding) can modify topography such that basin hydrology is significantly influenced. Despite significant advances in both hydrologic and geomorphic modeling over the past two decades, the dynamic interactions between basin hydrology, geomorphology and terrestrial ecology are not adequately captured in current model frameworks. In order to investigate hydrologic-geomorphic-ecologic interactions at the basin scale we present initial efforts in integrating the CHILD landscape evolution model (Tucker et al. 2001) with the tRIBS hydrology model (Ivanov et al. 2004), both developed in a common software environment. In this talk, we present preliminary results of the numerical modeling of the coupled evolution of basin hydro-geomorphic response and resulting landscape morphology in two sets of examples. First, we discuss the long-term evolution of both the hydrologic response and the resulting basin morphology from an initially uplifted plateau. In the second set of modeling experiments, we implement changes in climate and land-use to an existing topography and compare basin hydrologic response to the model results when landscape form is fixed (e.g. no coupling between hydrology and geomorphology). Model results stress the importance of internal basin dynamics, including runoff generation mechanisms and hydrologic states, in shaping hydrologic response as well as the importance of employing comprehensive conceptualizations of hydrology in modeling landscape evolution.

Use of BasinTemp to model summer stream temperatures in the south fork of Ten Mile River, CA

Treesearch

Rafael Real de Asua; Ethan Bell; Bruce Orr; Peter Baker; Kevin Faucher

2012-01-01

We used BasinTemp to predict summer stream temperatures in South Fork Ten Mile River (SFTMR), Mendocino County. BasinTemp is a temperature model that attempts to quantify the basin-wide effects of high summer stream temperatures in basins where the data inputs are scarce. It assumes that direct solar radiation is the chief...

Hydrographic Basins Analysis Using Digital Terrain Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mihaela, Pişleagă; -Minda Codruţa, Bădăluţă; Gabriel, Eleş; Daniela, Popescu

2017-10-01

The paper, emphasis the link between digital terrain modelling and studies of hydrographic basins, concerning the hydrological processes analysis. Given the evolution of computing techniques but also of the software digital terrain modelling made its presence felt increasingly, and established itself as a basic concept in many areas, due to many advantages. At present, most digital terrain modelling is derived from three alternative sources such as ground surveys, photogrammetric data capture or from digitized cartographic sources. A wide range of features may be extracted from digital terrain models, such as surface, specific points and landmarks, linear features but also areal futures like drainage basins, hills or hydrological basins. The paper highlights how the use appropriate software for the preparation of a digital terrain model, a model which is subsequently used to study hydrographic basins according to various geomorphological parameters. As a final goal, it shows the link between digital terrain modelling and hydrographic basins study that can be used to optimize the correlation between digital model terrain and hydrological processes in order to obtain results as close to the real field processes.

Initiation, evolution and extinction of pull-apart basins: Implications for opening of the Gulf of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Wijk, J.; Axen, G.; Abera, R.

2017-11-01

We present a model for the origin, crustal architecture, and evolution of pull-apart basins. The model is based on results of three-dimensional upper crustal elastic models of deformation, field observations, and fault theory, and is generally applicable to basin-scale features, but predicts some intra-basin structural features. Geometric differences between pull-apart basins are inherited from the initial geometry of the strike-slip fault step-over, which results from the forming phase of the strike-slip fault system. As strike-slip motion accumulates, pull-apart basins are stationary with respect to underlying basement, and the fault tips propagate beyond the rift basin, increasing the distance between the fault tips and pull-apart basin center. Because uplift is concentrated near the fault tips, the sediment source areas may rejuvenate and migrate over time. Rift flank uplift results from compression along the flank of the basin. With increasing strike-slip movement the basins deepen and lengthen. Field studies predict that pull-apart basins become extinct when an active basin-crossing fault forms; this is the most likely fate of pull-apart basins, because basin-bounding strike-slip systems tend to straighten and connect as they evolve. The models show that larger length-to-width ratios with overlapping faults are least likely to form basin-crossing faults, and pull-apart basins with this geometry are thus most likely to progress to continental rupture. In the Gulf of California, larger length-to-width ratios are found in the southern Gulf, which is the region where continental breakup occurred rapidly. The initial geometry in the northern Gulf of California and Salton Trough at 6 Ma may have been one of widely-spaced master strike-slip faults (lower length-to-width ratios), which our models suggest inhibits continental breakup and favors straightening of the strike-slip system by formation of basin-crossing faults within the step-over, as began 1.2 Ma when the San Jacinto and Elsinore - Cerro Prieto fault systems formed.

Effects of land-use changes and stormflow-detention basins on flooding and nonpoint-source pollution, in Irondequoit Creek basin, Monroe and Ontario counties, New York--application of a precipitation-runoff model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.; Johnson, Mark S.

2005-01-01

Urbanization of the 150-square-mile Irondequoit Creek basin in Monroe and Ontario Counties, N.Y., continues to spread southward and eastward from the City of Rochester, on the shore of Lake Ontario. Conversion of forested land to other uses over the past 40 years has increased to the extent that more than 50 percent of the basin is now developed. This expansion has increased flooding and impaired stream-water quality in the northern (downstream) half of the basin. A precipitation-runoff model of the Irondequoit Creek basin was developed with the model code HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program--FORTRAN) to simulate the effects of land-use changes and stormflow-detention basins on flooding and nonpoint-source pollution on the basin. Model performance was evaluated through a combination of graphical comparisons and statistical tests, and indicated 'very good' agreement (mean error less than 10 percent) between observed and simulated daily and monthly streamflows, between observed and simulated monthly water temperatures, and between observed total suspended solids loads and simulated sediment loads. Agreement between monthly observed and simulated nutrient loads was 'very good' (mean error less than 15 percent) or 'good' (mean error between 15 and 25 percent). Results of model simulations indicated that peak flows and loads of sediment and total phosphorus would increase in a rural subbasin, where 10 percent of the basin was converted from forest and grassland to pervious and impervious developed areas. Subsequent simulation of a stormflow-detention basin at the mouth of this subbasin indicated that peak flows and constituent loads would decrease below those that were generated by the land-use-change scenario, and, in some cases, below those that were simulated by the original land-use scenario. Other results from model simulations of peak flows over a 30-year period (1970-2000), with and without simulation of 50-percent flow reductions at one existing and nine hypothetical stormflow-detention basins, indicated that stormflow-detention basins would likely decrease peak flows 14 to 17 percent on Allen Creek and 17 to 18 percent on Irondequoit Creek at Blossom Road. The model is intended as a management tool that water-resource managers can use to guide decisions regarding future development in the basin. The model and associated files are designed to permit (1) creation of scenarios that represent planned or hypothetical development in the basin, and (2) assessment of the flooding and chemical loads that are likely to result. Instream stormflow-detention basins can be simulated in separate scenarios to assess their effect on flooding and chemical loads. This report (1) provides examples of how the model can be applied to address these issues, (2) discusses the model revisions required to simulate land-use changes and detention basins, and (3) describes the analytical steps necessary to evaluate the model results.

Modeled sulfate concentrations in North Dakota streams, 1993-2008, based on spatial basin characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galloway, Joel M.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2014-01-01

Modeled sulfate concentrations generally were highest (greater than 750 milligrams per liter) in basins in western North Dakota and lowest (less than 250 milligrams per liter) in basins in the upper Sheyenne River and upper James River. Area-weighted means for the basin characteristics also were computed for 10-digit and 8-digit hydrologic units for streams in North Dakota and modeled sulfate concentrations were computed from the characteristics. The resulting distribution of modeled sulfate concentrations was similar to the distribution of estimates for the 12-digit hydrologic units, but less variable because the basin characteristics were averaged over larger areas.

The seismic response of the Los Angeles basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Graves, R.W.

1998-01-01

Using strong-motion data recorded in the Los Angeles region from the 1992 (Mw 7.3) Landers earthquake, we have tested the accuracy of existing three-dimensional (3D) velocity models on the simulation of long-period (???2 sec) ground motions in the Los Angeles basin and surrounding San Fernando and San Gabriel Valleys. First, the overall pattern and degree of long-period excitation of the basins were identified in the observations. Within the Los Angeles basin, the recorded amplitudes are about three to four times larger than at sites outside the basins; amplitudes within the San Fernando and San Gabriel Valleys are nearly a factor of 3 greater than surrounding bedrock sites. Then, using a 3D finite-difference numerical modeling approach, we analyzed how variations in 3D earth structure affect simulated waveforms, amplitudes, and the fit to the observed patterns of amplification. Significant differences exist in the 3D velocity models of southern California that we tested (Magistrale et al., 1996; Graves, 1996a; Hauksson and Haase, 1997). Major differences in the models include the velocity of the assumed background models; the depth of the Los Angeles basin; and the depth, location, and geometry of smaller basins. The largest disparities in the response of the models are seen for the San Fernando Valley and the deepest portion of the Los Angeles basin. These arise in large part from variations in the structure of the basins, particularly the effective depth extent, which is mainly due to alternative assumptions about the nature of the basin sediment fill. The general ground-motion characteristics are matched by the 3D model simulations, validating the use of 3D modeling with geologically based velocity-structure models. However, significant shortcomings exist in the overall patterns of amplification and the duration of the long-period response. The successes and limitations of the models for reproducing the recorded ground motions as discussed provide the basis and direction for necessary improvements to earth structure models, whether geologically or tomographically derived. The differences in the response of the earth models tested also translate to variable success in the ability to successfully model the data and add uncertainty to estimates of the basin response given input "scenario" earthquake source models.

Basin Analysis and Petroleum System Characterisation of Western Bredasdorp Basin, Southern Offshore of South Africa: Insights from a 3d Crust-Scale Basin Model - (Phase 1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonibare, W. A.; Scheck-Wenderoth, M.; Sippel, J.; Mikeš, D.

2012-04-01

In recent years, construction of 3D geological models and their subsequent upscaling for reservoir simulation has become an important tool within the oil industry for managing hydrocarbon reservoirs and increasing recovery rate. Incorporating petroleum system elements (i.e. source, reservoir and trap) into these models is a relatively new concept that seems very promising to play/prospect risk assessment and reservoir characterisation alike. However, yet to be fully integrated into this multi-disciplinary modelling approach are the qualitative and quantitative impacts of crust-scale basin dynamics on the observed basin-fill architecture and geometries. The focus of this study i.e. Western Bredasdorp Basin constitutes the extreme western section of the larger Bredasdorp sub-basin, which is the westernmost depocentre of the four southern Africa offshore sub-basins (others being Pletmos, Gamtoos and Algoa). These basins, which appear to be initiated by volcanically influenced continental rifting and break-up related to passive margin evolution (during the Mid-Late Jurassic to latest Valanginian), remain previously unstudied for crust-scale basin margin evolution, and particularly in terms of relating deep crustal processes to depo-system reconstruction and petroleum system evolution. Seismic interpretation of 42 2D seismic-reflection profiles forms the basis for maps of 6 stratigraphic horizons which record the syn-rift to post-rift (i.e. early drift and late drift to present-day seafloor) successions. In addition to this established seismic markers, high quality seismic profiles have shown evidence for a pre-rift sequence (i.e. older than Late Jurassic >130 Ma). The first goal of this study is the construction of a 3D gravity-constrained, crust-scale basin model from integration of seismics, well data and cores. This basin model is constructed using GMS (in-house GFZ Geo-Modelling Software) while testing its consistency with the gravity field is performed using IGMAS+ (Interactive Gravity and Magnetic Assistant System; Götze et al., 2010 and Schmidt et al., 2011). The ensuing model will be applied to predict the present-day deep crustal configuration and thermal field characteristics of the basin. Thereafter, 3D volumetric backstripping analysis will be performed to predict basin subsidence mechanisms (i.e. tectonic, thermal and sediment load) through time as well as to estimate paleo-water depths for paleogeographic reconstruction. The information gathered from crust-scale basin dynamics will be subsequently used at the petroleum system modelling stage to holistically assess the hydrocarbon potential of the basin in terms of source rock maturity and hydrocarbon generation, migration, timing and accumulation.

Application of a Nested Modeling Approach Using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the Southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafontaine, J.; Hay, L.; Viger, R.; Markstrom, S. L.

2010-12-01

In order to help environmental resource managers assess potential effects of climate change on ecosystems, the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) began in 2009. One component of the SERAP is development and calibration of a set of multi-resolution hydrologic models of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin. The ACF River Basin is home to multiple fish and wildlife species of conservation concern, is regionally important for water supply, and has been a recent focus of complementary environmental and climate-change research. Hydrologic models of varying spatial extents and resolutions are required to address varied local to regional water-resource management questions as required by the scope and limits of potential management actions. These models were developed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The coarse-resolution model for the ACF Basin has a contributing area of approximately 19,200 mi2 with the model outlet located at the USGS streamflow gage on the Apalachicola River near Sumatra, Florida. Six fine-resolution PRMS models ranging in size from 153 mi2 to 1,040 mi2 are nested within the coarse-scale model, and have been developed for the following basins: upper Chattahoochee, Chestatee, and Chipola Rivers, Ichawaynochaway, Potato, and Spring Creeks. All of the models simulate basin hydrology using a daily time-step, measured climate data, and basin characteristics such as land cover and topography. Measured streamflow data are used to calibrate and evaluate computed basin hydrology. Land cover projections will be used in conjunction with downscaled Global Climate Model results to project future hydrologic conditions for this set of models.

On the use of MODIS and TRMM products to simulate hydrological processes in the La Plata Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saavedra Valeriano, O. C.; Koike, T.; Berbery, E. H.

2009-12-01

La Plata basin is targeted to establish a distributed water-energy balance model using NASA and JAXA satellite products to estimate fluxes like the river discharge at sub-basin scales. The coupled model is called the Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model (WEB-DHM), already tested with success in the Little Washita basin, Oklahoma, and the upper Tone River in Japan. The model demonstrated the ability to reproduce point-scale energy fluxes, CO2 flux, and river discharges. Moreover, the model showed the ability to predict the basin-scale surface soil moisture evolution in a spatially distributed fashion. In the context of the La Plata Basin, the first step was to set-up the water balance component of the distributed hydrological model of the entire basin using available global geographical data sets. The geomorphology of the basin was extracted using 1-km DEM resolution (obtained from EROS, Hydro 1K). The total delineated watershed reached 3.246 millions km2, identifying 145 sub-basins with a computing grid of 10-km. The distribution of land cover, land surface temperature, LAI and FPAR were obtained from MODIS products. In a first instance, the model was forced by gridded rainfall from the Climate Prediction Center (derived from available rain gauges) and satellite precipitation from TRMM 3B42 (NASA & JAXA). The simulated river discharge using both sources of data was compared and the overall low flow and normal peaks were identified. It was found that the extreme peaks tend to be overestimated when using TRMM 3B42. However, TRMM data allows tracking rainfall patterns which might be missed by the sparse distribution of rain gauges over some areas of the basin.

Modeling Effects of Groundwater Basin Closure, and Reversal of Closure, on Groundwater Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauloo, R.; Guo, Z.; Fogg, G. E.

2017-12-01

Population growth, the expansion of agriculture, and climate uncertainties have accelerated groundwater pumping and overdraft in aquifers worldwide. In many agricultural basins, a water budget may be stable or not in overdraft, yet disconnected ground and surface water bodies can contribute to the formation of a "closed" basin, where water principally exits the basin as evapotranspiration. Although decreasing water quality associated with increases in Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) have been documented in aquifers across the United States in the past half century, connections between water quality declines and significant changes in hydrologic budgets leading to closed basin formation remain poorly understood. Preliminary results from an analysis with a regional-scale mixing model of the Tulare Lake Basin in California indicate that groundwater salinization resulting from open to closed basin conversion can operate on a decades-to-century long time scale. The only way to reverse groundwater salinization caused by basin closure is to refill the basin and change the hydrologic budget sufficiently for natural groundwater discharge to resume. 3D flow and transport modeling, including the effects of heterogeneity based on a hydrostratigraphic facies model, is used to explore rates and time scales of groundwater salinization and its reversal under different water and land management scenarios. The modeling is also used to ascertain the extent to which local and regional heterogeneity need to be included in order to appropriately upscale the advection-dispersion equation in a basin scale groundwater quality management model. Results imply that persistent managed aquifer recharge may slow groundwater salinization, and complete reversal may be possible at sufficiently high water tables.

Improving Watershed-Scale Hydrodynamic Models by Incorporating Synthetic 3D River Bathymetry Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, S.; Saksena, S.; Merwade, V.

2017-12-01

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) have an incomplete representation of river bathymetry, which is critical for simulating river hydrodynamics in flood modeling. Generally, DEMs are augmented with field collected bathymetry data, but such data are available only at individual reaches. Creating a hydrodynamic model covering an entire stream network in the basin requires bathymetry for all streams. This study extends a conceptual bathymetry model, River Channel Morphology Model (RCMM), to estimate the bathymetry for an entire stream network for application in hydrodynamic modeling using a DEM. It is implemented at two large watersheds with different relief and land use characterizations: coastal Guadalupe River basin in Texas with flat terrain and a relatively urban White River basin in Indiana with more relief. After bathymetry incorporation, both watersheds are modeled using HEC-RAS (1D hydraulic model) and Interconnected Pond and Channel Routing (ICPR), a 2-D integrated hydrologic and hydraulic model. A comparison of the streamflow estimated by ICPR at the outlet of the basins indicates that incorporating bathymetry influences streamflow estimates. The inundation maps show that bathymetry has a higher impact on flat terrains of Guadalupe River basin when compared to the White River basin.

BASINS Tutorials and Training

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A series of lectures and exercises on how to use BASINS for water quality modeling and watershed assessment. The lectures follow sequentially. Companion exercises are provided for users to practice different BASINS water quality modeling techniques.

Snowmelt-runoff Model Utilizing Remotely-sensed Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rango, A.

1985-01-01

Remotely sensed snow cover information is the critical data input for the Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM), which was developed to simulatke discharge from mountain basins where snowmelt is an important component of runoff. Of simple structure, the model requires only input of temperature, precipitation, and snow covered area. SRM was run successfully on two widely separated basins. The simulations on the Kings River basin are significant because of the large basin area (4000 sq km) and the adequate performance in the most extreme drought year of record (1976). The performance of SRM on the Okutadami River basin was important because it was accomplished with minimum snow cover data available. Tables show: optimum and minimum conditions for model application; basin sizes and elevations where SRM was applied; and SRM strengths and weaknesses. Graphs show results of discharge simulation.

Modeling and analysis of Soil Erosion processes by the River Basins model: The Case Study of the Krivacki Potok Watershed, Montenegro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vujacic, Dusko; Barovic, Goran; Mijanovic, Dragica; Spalevic, Velibor; Curovic, Milic; Tanaskovic, Vjekoslav; Djurovic, Nevenka

2016-04-01

The objective of this research was to study soil erosion processes in one of Northern Montenegrin watersheds, the Krivacki Potok Watershed of the Polimlje River Basin, using modeling techniques: the River Basins computer-graphic model, based on the analytical Erosion Potential Method (EPM) of Gavrilovic for calculation of runoff and soil loss. Our findings indicate a low potential of soil erosion risk, with 554 m³ yr-1 of annual sediment yield; an area-specific sediment yield of 180 m³km-2 yr-1. The calculation outcomes were validated for the entire 57 River Basins of Polimlje, through measurements of lake sediment deposition at the Potpec hydropower plant dam. According to our analysis, the Krivacki Potok drainage basin is with the relatively low sediment discharge; according to the erosion type, it is mixed erosion. The value of the Z coefficient was calculated on 0.297, what indicates that the river basin belongs to 4th destruction category (of five). The calculated peak discharge from the river basin was 73 m3s-1 for the incidence of 100 years and there is a possibility for large flood waves to appear in the studied river basin. Using the adequate computer-graphic and analytical modeling tools, we improved the knowledge on the soil erosion processes of the river basins of this part of Montenegro. The computer-graphic River Basins model of Spalevic, which is based on the EPM analytical method of Gavrilovic, is highly recommended for soil erosion modelling in other river basins of the Southeastern Europe. This is because of its reliable detection and appropriate classification of the areas affected by the soil loss caused by soil erosion, at the same time taking into consideration interactions between the various environmental elements such as Physical-Geographical Features, Climate, Geological, Pedological characteristics, including the analysis of Land Use, all calculated at the catchment scale.

Parallelization of a Fully-Distributed Hydrologic Model using Sub-basin Partitioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivoni, E. R.; Mniszewski, S.; Fasel, P.; Springer, E.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Bras, R. L.

2005-12-01

A primary obstacle towards advances in watershed simulations has been the limited computational capacity available to most models. The growing trend of model complexity, data availability and physical representation has not been matched by adequate developments in computational efficiency. This situation has created a serious bottleneck which limits existing distributed hydrologic models to small domains and short simulations. In this study, we present novel developments in the parallelization of a fully-distributed hydrologic model. Our work is based on the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), which provides continuous hydrologic simulation using a multiple resolution representation of complex terrain based on a triangulated irregular network (TIN). While the use of TINs reduces computational demand, the sequential version of the model is currently limited over large basins (>10,000 km2) and long simulation periods (>1 year). To address this, a parallel MPI-based version of the tRIBS model has been implemented and tested using high performance computing resources at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Our approach utilizes domain decomposition based on sub-basin partitioning of the watershed. A stream reach graph based on the channel network structure is used to guide the sub-basin partitioning. Individual sub-basins or sub-graphs of sub-basins are assigned to separate processors to carry out internal hydrologic computations (e.g. rainfall-runoff transformation). Routed streamflow from each sub-basin forms the major hydrologic data exchange along the stream reach graph. Individual sub-basins also share subsurface hydrologic fluxes across adjacent boundaries. We demonstrate how the sub-basin partitioning provides computational feasibility and efficiency for a set of test watersheds in northeastern Oklahoma. We compare the performance of the sequential and parallelized versions to highlight the efficiency gained as the number of processors increases. We also discuss how the coupled use of TINs and parallel processing can lead to feasible long-term simulations in regional watersheds while preserving basin properties at high-resolution.

Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

2014-01-01

The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing climate was the appreciable increase in the length of the growing season in the Lake Michigan Basin. The increase in growing season will cause an increase in evapotranspiration across the Lake Michigan Basin, which will directly affect soil moisture and late growing season streamflows. Output from the Lake Michigan Basin PRMS model is available through an online dynamic web mapping service available at (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2014/5175/). The map service includes layers for the each of the 8 global climate models and 4 carbon emission scenarios combinations for 12 hydrologic model state variables. The layers are pre-rendered maps of annual hydrologic response from 1977 through 2099 that provide an easily accessible online method to examine climate change effects across the Lake Michigan Basin.

Hydrogeologic setting and conceptual hydrologic model of the Spring Creek basin, Centre County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulton, John W.; Koerkle, Edward H.; McAuley, Steven D.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Zarr, Linda F.

2005-01-01

The Spring Creek Basin, Centre County, Pa., is experiencing some of the most rapid growth and development within the Commonwealth. This trend has resulted in land-use changes and increased water use, which will affect the quantity and quality of stormwater runoff, surface water, ground water, and aquatic resources within the basin. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the ClearWater Conservancy (CWC), Spring Creek Watershed Community (SCWC), and Spring Creek Watershed Commission (SCWCm), has developed a Watershed Plan (Plan) to assist decision makers in water-resources planning. One element of the Plan is to provide a summary of the basin characteristics and a conceptual model that incorporates the hydrogeologic characteristics of the basin. The report presents hydrogeologic data for the basin and presents a conceptual model that can be used as the basis for simulating surface-water and ground-water flow within the basin. Basin characteristics; sources of data referenced in this text; physical characteristics such as climate, physiography, topography, and land use; hydrogeologic characteristics; and water-quality characteristics are discussed. A conceptual model is a simplified description of the physical components and interaction of the surface- and ground-water systems. The purpose for constructing a conceptual model is to simplify the problem and to organize the available data so that the system can be analyzed accurately. Simplification is necessary, because a complete accounting of a system, such as Spring Creek, is not possible. The data and the conceptual model could be used in development of a fully coupled numerical model that dynamically links surface water, ground water, and land-use changes. The model could be used by decision makers to manage water resources within the basin and as a prototype that is transferable to other watersheds.

Integrated modelling of nitrate loads to coastal waters and land rent applied to catchment-scale water management.

PubMed

Refsgaard, A; Jacobsen, T; Jacobsen, B; Ørum, J-E

2007-01-01

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires an integrated approach to river basin management in order to meet environmental and ecological objectives. This paper presents concepts and full-scale application of an integrated modelling framework. The Ringkoebing Fjord basin is characterized by intensive agricultural production and leakage of nitrate constitute a major pollution problem with respect groundwater aquifers (drinking water), fresh surface water systems (water quality of lakes) and coastal receiving waters (eutrophication). The case study presented illustrates an advanced modelling approach applied in river basin management. Point sources (e.g. sewage treatment plant discharges) and distributed diffuse sources (nitrate leakage) are included to provide a modelling tool capable of simulating pollution transport from source to recipient to analyse the effects of specific, localized basin water management plans. The paper also includes a land rent modelling approach which can be used to choose the most cost-effective measures and the location of these measures. As a forerunner to the use of basin-scale models in WFD basin water management plans this project demonstrates the potential and limitations of comprehensive, integrated modelling tools.

Simulation of daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haj, Adel E.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hutchinson, Kasey J.

2015-10-14

The accuracy of Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model streamflow estimates of nine river basins in eastern Iowa as compared to measured values at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations varied. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models of nine river basins in eastern Iowa were satisfactory at estimating daily streamflow at 57 of the 79 calibration sites and 13 of the 14 validation sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance can be contributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) the availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation- Runoff Modeling System models of nine river basins in eastern Iowa will provide water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites and aid in environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects.

The Saale-Project -A multidisciplinary approach towards sustainable integrative catchment management -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bongartz, K.; Flügel, W. A.

2003-04-01

In the joint research project “Development of an integrated methodology for the sustainable management of river basins The Saale River Basin example”, coordinated by the Centre of Environmental Research (UFZ), concepts and tools for an integrated management of large river basins are developed and applied for the Saale river basin. The ultimate objective of the project is to contribute to the holistic assessment and benchmarking approaches in water resource planning, as required by the European Water Framework Directive. The study presented here deals (1) with the development of a river basin information and modelling system, (2) with the refinement of a regionalisation approach adapted for integrated basin modelling. The approach combines a user friendly basin disaggregation method preserving the catchment’s physiographic heterogeneity with a process oriented hydrological basin assessment for scale bridging integrated modelling. The well tested regional distribution concept of Response Units (RUs) will be enhanced by landscape metrics and decision support tools for objective, scale independent and problem oriented RU delineation to provide the spatial modelling entities for process oriented and distributed simulation of vertical and lateral hydrological transport processes. On basis of this RUs suitable hydrological modelling approaches will be further developed with strong respect to a more detailed simulation of the lateral surface and subsurface flows as well as the channel flow. This methodical enhancement of the well recognised RU-concept will be applied to the river basin of the Saale (Ac: 23 179 km2) and validated by a nested catchment approach, which allows multi-response-validation and estimation of uncertainties of the modelling results. Integrated modelling of such a complex basin strongly influenced by manifold human activities (reservoirs, agriculture, urban areas and industry) can only be achieved by coupling the various modelling approaches within a well defined model framework system. The latter is interactively linked with a sophisticated geo-relational database (DB) serving all research teams involved in the project. This interactive linkage is a core element comprising an object-oriented, internet-based modelling framework system (MFS) for building interdisciplinary modelling applications and offering different analysis and visualisation tools.

Refined modeling of Seattle basin amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidale, J. E.; Wirth, E. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Baker, B.; Thompson, M.; Han, J.; Nasser, M.; Stephenson, W. J.

2016-12-01

The Seattle Basin has long been recognized to modulate shaking in western Washington earthquakes (e.g., Frankel, 2007 USGS OFR). The amplification of shaking in such deep sedimentary basins is a challenge to estimate and incorporate into mitigation plans. This project aims to (1) study the influence of basin edges on trapping and amplifying seismic waves, and (2) using the latest earthquake data to refine our models of basin structure. To interrogate the influence of basin edges on ground motion, we use the numerical codes SpecFEM3D and Disfd (finite-difference code from Pengcheng Liu), and an update of the basin model of Stephenson et al. (2007), to calculate synthetic ground motions at frequencies up to 1 Hz. The figure below, for example, shows the amplification relative to a simple 1/r amplitude decay for four sources around of the Seattle Basin (red dots), with an EW-striking 45°-dipping thrust mechanism at 10 km depth. We test the difficulty of simulating motions in the presence of slow materials near the basin edge. Running SpecFEM3D with attenuation is about a third as fast as the finite difference code, and cannot represent sub-element structure (e.g., slow surficial materials) in comparable detail to the finer FD grid, but has the advantages of being able to incorporate topography and water. Modeling 1 Hz energy in the presence of shear wave velocities with a floor of 600 m/s, factor of 2 to 3 velocity contrasts, and sharp basin edges is fraught, both in calculating synthetics and estimating real structure. We plan to incorporate interpretations of local recordings including basin-bottom S-to-P conversions, noise-correlation waveforms, and teleseismic-P-wave reverberations to refine the basin model. Our long-term goal is to reassess with greater accuracy and resolution the spatial pattern of hazard across the Seattle Basin, which includes several quite vulnerable neighborhoods.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Pomperaug River Watershed, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Pomperaug River Basin at Southbury, Connecticut.

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Feather River basin, northeastern California, and streamflow predictability, water years 1971-97

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Jeton, Anne E.; McGurk, Bruce; Dettinger, Michael D.

2005-01-01

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Feather River Basin of northern California determine short- and long-term streamflow variations that are of considerable local, State, and Federal concern. The river is an important source of water and power for the region. The basin forms the headwaters of the California State Water Project. Lake Oroville, at the outlet of the basin, plays an important role in flood management, water quality, and the health of fisheries as far downstream as the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Existing models of the river simulate streamflow in hourly, daily, weekly, and seasonal time steps, but cannot adequately describe responses to climate and land-use variations in the basin. New spatially detailed precipitation-runoff models of the basin have been developed to simulate responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than was available previously. This report characterizes daily rainfall, snowpack evolution, runoff, water and energy balances, and streamflow variations from, and within, the basin above Lake Oroville. The new model's ability to predict streamflow is assessed. The Feather River Basin sits astride geologic, topographic, and climatic divides that establish a hydrologic character that is relatively unusual among the basins of the Sierra Nevada. It straddles a north-south geologic transition in the Sierra Nevada between the granitic bedrock that underlies and forms most of the central and southern Sierra Nevada and volcanic bedrock that underlies the northernmost parts of the range (and basin). Because volcanic bedrock generally is more permeable than granitic, the northern, volcanic parts of the basin contribute larger fractions of ground-water flow to streams than do the southern, granitic parts of the basin. The Sierra Nevada topographic divide forms a high altitude ridgeline running northwest to southeast through the middle of the basin. The topography east of this ridgeline is more like the rain-shadowed basins of the northeastern Sierra Nevada than the uplands of most western Sierra Nevada river basins. The climate is mediterranean, with most of the annual precipitation occurring in winter. Because the basin includes large areas that are near the average snowline, rainfall and rain-snow mixtures are common during winter storms. Consequently, the overall timing and rates of runoff from the basin are highly sensitive to winter temperature fluctuations. The models were developed to simulate runoff-generating processes in eight drainages of the Feather River Basin. Together, these models simulate streamflow from 98 percent of the basin above Lake Oroville. The models simulate daily water and heat balances, snowpack evolution and snowmelt, evaporation and transpiration, subsurface water storage and outflows, and streamflow to key streamflow gage sites. The drainages are modeled as 324 hydrologic-response units, each of which is assumed homogeneous in physical characteristics and response to precipitation and runoff. The models were calibrated with emphasis on reproducing monthly streamflow rates, and model simulations were compared to the total natural inflows into Lake Oroville as reconstructed by the California Department of Water Resources for April-July snowmelt seasons from 1971 to 1997. The models are most sensitive to input values and patterns of precipitation and soil characteristics. The input precipitation values were allowed to vary on a daily basis to reflect available observations by making daily transformations to an existing map of long-term mean monthly precipitation rates that account for altitude and rain-shadow effects. The models effectively simulate streamflow into Lake Oroville during water years (October through September) 1971-97, which is demonstrated in hydrographs and statistical results presented in this report. The Butt Creek model yields the most accurate historical April-July simulations, whereas the West Branch

Tectonothermal modeling of hydrocarbon maturation, Central Maracaibo Basin, Venezuela

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manske, M.C.

1996-08-01

The petroliferous Maracaibo Basin of northwestern Venezuela and extreme eastern Colombia has evolved through a complex geologic history. Deciphering the tectonic and thermal evolution is essential in the prediction of hydrocarbon maturation (timing) within the basin. Individual wells in two areas of the central basin, Blocks III and V, have been modeled to predict timing of hydrocarbon generation within the source Upper Cretaceous La Luna Formation, as well as within interbedded shales of the Lower-Middle Eocene Misoa Formation reservoir sandstones. Tectonic evolution, including burial and uplift (erosional) history, has been constrained with available well data. The initial extensional thermal regimemore » of the basin has been approximated with a Mackenzie-type thermal model, and the following compressional stage of basin development by applying a foreland basin model. Corrected Bottom Hole Temperature (BHT) measurements; from wells in the central basin, along with thermal conductivity measurements of rock samples from the entire sedimentary sequence, resulted in the estimation of present day heat flow. An understanding of the basin`s heat flow, then, allowed extrapolation of geothermal gradients through time. The relation of geothermal gradients and overpressure within the Upper Cretaceous hydrocarbon-generating La Luna Formation and thick Colon Formation shales was also taken into account. Maturation modeling by both the conventional Time-Temperature Index (TTI) and kinetic Transformation Ratio (TR) methods predicts the timing of hydrocarbon maturation in the potential source units of these two wells. These modeling results are constrained by vitrinite reflectance and illite/smectite clay dehydration data, and show general agreement. These results also have importance regarding the timing of structural formation and hydrocarbon migration into Misoa reservoirs.« less

Application of the precipitation-runoff model in the Warrior coal field, Alabama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kidd, Robert E.; Bossong, C.R.

1987-01-01

A deterministic precipitation-runoff model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, was applied in two small basins located in the Warrior coal field, Alabama. Each basin has distinct geologic, hydrologic, and land-use characteristics. Bear Creek basin (15.03 square miles) is undisturbed, is underlain almost entirely by consolidated coal-bearing rocks of Pennsylvanian age (Pottsville Formation), and is drained by an intermittent stream. Turkey Creek basin (6.08 square miles) contains a surface coal mine and is underlain by both the Pottsville Formation and unconsolidated clay, sand, and gravel deposits of Cretaceous age (Coker Formation). Aquifers in the Coker Formation sustain flow through extended rainless periods. Preliminary daily and storm calibrations were developed for each basin. Initial parameter and variable values were determined according to techniques recommended in the user's manual for the modeling system and through field reconnaissance. Parameters with meaningful sensitivity were identified and adjusted to match hydrograph shapes and to compute realistic water year budgets. When the developed calibrations were applied to data exclusive of the calibration period as a verification exercise, results were comparable to those for the calibration period. The model calibrations included preliminary parameter values for the various categories of geology and land use in each basin. The parameter values for areas underlain by the Pottsville Formation in the Bear Creek basin were transferred directly to similar areas in the Turkey Creek basin, and these parameter values were held constant throughout the model calibration. Parameter values for all geologic and land-use categories addressed in the two calibrations can probably be used in ungaged basins where similar conditions exist. The parameter transfer worked well, as a good calibration was obtained for Turkey Creek basin.

Investigation of the deep structure of the Sivas Basin (innereast Anatolia, Turkey) with geophysical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onal, K. Mert; Buyuksarac, Aydin; Aydemir, Attila; Ates, Abdullah

2008-11-01

Sivas Basin is the easternmost and third largest basin of the Central Anatolian Basins. In this study, gravity, aeromagnetic and seismic data are used to investigate the deep structure of the Sivas Basin, together with the well seismic velocity data, geological observations from the surface and the borehole data of the Celalli-1 well. Basement depth is modeled three-dimensionally (3D) using the gravity anomalies, and 2D gravity and magnetic models were constructed along with a N-S trending profile. Densities of the rock samples were obtained from the distinct parts of the basin surface and in-situ susceptibilities were also measured and evaluated in comparison with the other geophysical and geological data. Additionally, seismic sections, in spite of their low resolution, were used to define the velocity variation in the basin in order to compare depth values and geological cross-section obtained from the modeling studies. Deepest parts of the basin (12-13 km), determined from the 3D model, are located below the settlement of Hafik and to the south of Zara towns. Geometry, extension and wideness of the basin, together with the thickness and lithologies of the sedimentary units are reasonably appropriate for further hydrocarbon exploration in the Sivas Basin that is still an unexplored area with the limited number of seismic lines and only one borehole.

Terrestrial Water Mass Load Changes from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seo, K.-W.; Wilson, C. R.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Chen, J. L.; Rodell M.

2006-01-01

Recent studies show that data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is promising for basin- to global-scale water cycle research. This study provides varied assessments of errors associated with GRACE water storage estimates. Thirteen monthly GRACE gravity solutions from August 2002 to December 2004 are examined, along with synthesized GRACE gravity fields for the same period that incorporate simulated errors. The synthetic GRACE fields are calculated using numerical climate models and GRACE internal error estimates. We consider the influence of measurement noise, spatial leakage error, and atmospheric and ocean dealiasing (AOD) model error as the major contributors to the error budget. Leakage error arises from the limited range of GRACE spherical harmonics not corrupted by noise. AOD model error is due to imperfect correction for atmosphere and ocean mass redistribution applied during GRACE processing. Four methods of forming water storage estimates from GRACE spherical harmonics (four different basin filters) are applied to both GRACE and synthetic data. Two basin filters use Gaussian smoothing, and the other two are dynamic basin filters which use knowledge of geographical locations where water storage variations are expected. Global maps of measurement noise, leakage error, and AOD model errors are estimated for each basin filter. Dynamic basin filters yield the smallest errors and highest signal-to-noise ratio. Within 12 selected basins, GRACE and synthetic data show similar amplitudes of water storage change. Using 53 river basins, covering most of Earth's land surface excluding Antarctica and Greenland, we document how error changes with basin size, latitude, and shape. Leakage error is most affected by basin size and latitude, and AOD model error is most dependent on basin latitude.

Congo Basin rainfall climatology: can we believe the climate models?

PubMed

Washington, Richard; James, Rachel; Pearce, Helen; Pokam, Wilfried M; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran

2013-01-01

The Congo Basin is one of three key convective regions on the planet which, during the transition seasons, dominates global tropical rainfall. There is little agreement as to the distribution and quantity of rainfall across the basin with datasets differing by an order of magnitude in some seasons. The location of maximum rainfall is in the far eastern sector of the basin in some datasets but the far western edge of the basin in others during March to May. There is no consistent pattern to this rainfall distribution in satellite or model datasets. Resolving these differences is difficult without ground-based data. Moisture flux nevertheless emerges as a useful variable with which to study these differences. Climate models with weak (strong) or even divergent moisture flux over the basin are dry (wet). The paper suggests an approach, via a targeted field campaign, for generating useful climate information with which to confront rainfall products and climate models.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Yampa River Basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Battaglin, William A.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

General Circulation Model simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios. To determine the sensitivity and potential effect of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change study, "An integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States" was started in 2008. The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate change studies across the nation. Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Yampa River Basin at Steamboat Springs, Colorado.

Overpressures in the Uinta Basin, Utah: Analysis using a three-dimensional basin evolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPherson, Brian J. O. L.; Bredehoeft, John D.

2001-04-01

High pore fluid pressures, approaching lithostatic, are observed in the deepest sections of the Uinta basin, Utah. Geologic observations and previous modeling studies suggest that the most likely cause of observed overpressures is hydrocarbon generation. We studied Uinta overpressures by developing and applying a three-dimensional, numerical model of the evolution of the basin. The model was developed from a public domain computer code, with addition of a new mesh generator that builds the basin through time, coupling the structural, thermal, and hydrodynamic evolution. Also included in the model are in situ hydrocarbon generation and multiphase migration. The modeling study affirmed oil generation as an overpressure mechanism, but also elucidated the relative roles of multiphase fluid interaction, oil density and viscosity, and sedimentary compaction. An important result is that overpressures by oil generation create conditions for rock fracturing, and associated fracture permeability may regulate or control the propensity to maintain overpressures.

Evaluating Mantle-to-Surface Hydrologic Connections in the Rio Grande Rift using Mathematical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolsey, E. E.; Person, M. A.; Crossey, L. J.; Phillips, F. M.; Karlstrom, K. E.; Williams, A. J.

2012-12-01

The southern terminus of the Albuquerque Basin along the Rio Grande Rift (RGR) is characterized by high river salinity (200-700 mg/L), temperature (29°C at 155 m depth), and mantle helium (0.26-0.37 RC/A) anomalies, which are clear indications of complex mixing of mantle and crustal fluids. The zone of maximum uplift of the Socorro Magma Body (SMB) is also localized at the southern end of the Albuquerque Basin. Two end member hypotheses have been proposed to account for salt loading in the Rio Grande: 1) basin constriction forcing brines and warm water to the surface and 2) fault-controlled fluid flow from deep mantle/magmatic sources. A better understanding of the hydrologic controls is necessary to assess the degradation of water quality along the Rio Grande. The role of basin constriction and fault-controlled fluid flow in explaining observed fluxes of salinity, enthalpy and primordial helium is examined in this study using mathematical modeling. A basin-scale, cross-sectional hydrologic model was constructed along the RGR in the Albuquerque and Socorro Basins drawn to a depth of 19 km to incorporate deeply derived inputs related to the SMB. The finite element model used is capable of representing heat, brine and noble gas transport. Geologic maps, well bore lithologic logs, as well as gravity and seismic-surveys were used to construct the general N-S cross-section on which the model is based. The model follows the longitudinal profile of the Rio Grande through the Albuquerque Basin and into the Socorro Basin. Multiple versions of the model were created based on two working hypotheses to better understand the structural and hydrologic controls at the basin boundary. One model assumes that the Tertiary dike exposed at the boundary acts as a conduit for deeply sourced fluids and primordial 3He related to the SMB. An alternate version assumes all the units down to the Precambrian basement rock decrease in depth significantly at the basin boundary due to the southward constriction of the Albuquerque Basin at the transition to the Socorro Basin. New and existing groundwater salinity, temperature, 3He/4He, and 14C data provide the ground truth for model calibration and sensitivity analysis. The model results illustrate the importance of deeply penetrating, moderately permeable fault zones (10-12 to 10-15 m2) in advective transport of groundwater, primordial 3He and mantle volatiles through the ductile boundary to shallow crustal levels. The simulated 3He/4He ratios at the surface conduit exposures are within the published values measured at the basin boundary and within the RGR. Thermal expansion of the magma body is being used to estimate the age of emplacement (≤ 30,000 years) based on 3He, temperature, and Rio Grande terrace deflection data. Both regional and local flow systems are evident in the model and likely account for the salinity increase in the Rio Grande at the basin boundary constriction where the upwelling deep sedimentary basin brines mix with the shallow groundwater system.

An integrated model of water resources optimization allocation based on projection pursuit model - Grey wolf optimization method in a transboundary river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Sen; Lu, Hongwei

2018-04-01

Under the effects of global change, water crisis ranks as the top global risk in the future decade, and water conflict in transboundary river basins as well as the geostrategic competition led by it is most concerned. This study presents an innovative integrated PPMGWO model of water resources optimization allocation in a transboundary river basin, which is integrated through the projection pursuit model (PPM) and Grey wolf optimization (GWO) method. This study uses the Songhua River basin and 25 control units as examples, adopting the PPMGWO model proposed in this study to allocate the water quantity. Using water consumption in all control units in the Songhua River basin in 2015 as reference to compare with optimization allocation results of firefly algorithm (FA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithms as well as the PPMGWO model, results indicate that the average difference between corresponding allocation results and reference values are 0.195 bil m3, 0.151 bil m3, and 0.085 bil m3, respectively. Obviously, the average difference of the PPMGWO model is the lowest and its optimization allocation result is closer to reality, which further confirms the reasonability, feasibility, and accuracy of the PPMGWO model. And then the PPMGWO model is adopted to simulate allocation of available water quantity in Songhua River basin in 2018, 2020, and 2030. The simulation results show water quantity which could be allocated in all controls demonstrates an overall increasing trend with reasonable and equal exploitation and utilization of water resources in the Songhua River basin in future. In addition, this study has a certain reference value and application meaning to comprehensive management and water resources allocation in other transboundary river basins.

Implications for the formation of the Hollywood Basin from gravity interpretations of the northern Los Angeles Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hildenbrand, Thomas G.; Davidson, Jeffrey G.; Ponti, Daniel J.; Langenheim, V.E.

2001-01-01

Gravity data provide insights on the complex tectonic history and structural development of the northern Los Angeles Basin region. The Hollywood basin appears to be a long (> 12 km), narrow (up to 2 km wide) trough lying between the Santa Monica Mountains and the Wilshire arch. In the deepest parts of the Hollywood basin, the modeled average thickness ranges from roughly 250 m if filled with only Quaternary sediments to approximately 600 m if Pliocene sediments are also present. Interpretations of conflicting drill hole data force us to consider both these scenarios. Because of the marked density contrast between the dense Santa Monica Mountains and the low-density sediments in the Los Angeles Basin, the gravity method is particularly useful in mapping the maximum displacement along the Santa Monica-Hollywood-Raymond fault zone. The gravity-defined Santa Monica–Hollywood fault zone deviates, in places, from the mapped active fault and fold scarps located with boreholes and trenching and by geomorphological mapping by Dolan and others (1997). Our models suggest that the Santa Monica–Hollywood fault zone dips northward approximately 63°. Three structural models are considered for the origin of the Hollywood basin: pull-apart basin, flexural basin, and a basin related to a back limb of a major fold. Although our preferred structural model involves flexure, the available geologic and geophysical data do not preclude contributions to the deepening of the basin from one or both of the other two models. Of particular interest is that the distribution of red-tagged buildings and structures damaged by the Northridge earthquake has a strong spatial correlation with the axis of the Hollywood basin defined by the gravity data. Several explanations for this correlation are explored, but two preferred geologic factors for the amplification of ground motion besides local site effects are (1) focussing of energy by a fault along the axis of the Hollywood basin and (2) focussing effects related to differential refraction of seismic rays across the basin.

A three-dimensional conceptual model of the water quality distribution in the Albuquerque Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romero, D.

1995-12-31

It is possible to construct a conceptual model of the Albuquerque Basin`s geochemical characteristics and water quality distribution based on (1) the Hawley and Haase hydrogeological model, (2) water analyses from City of Albuquerque water wells, and (3) sound geological and chemical principles. Previous studies have characterized the water quality and geochemistry of the Albuquerque Basin from a two-dimensional perspective; however, to date, there has been no examination of the variation of water quality with depth within the Albuquerque Basin. The primary focus of this paper is to describe a first attempt at developing a conceptual understanding of the three-dimensionalmore » water quality distribution of the Albuquerque Basin based on the above three building blocks.« less

Combined Detrital U/Pb Zircon and 40Ar/39Ar Mica Geoochronology to Test Structural Models for a Devonian Orogenic Collapse Basin in the Norwegian Caledonides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templeton, J.; Anders, M.; Fossen, H.

2014-12-01

The Hornelen basin is the largest of the Devonian 'Old Red' sandstone basins in Norway, comprising 25 km of alluvial-fluvial deposits which are organized into basin-wide, coarsening-upward megacycles. Hornelen sits with several smaller basins in the hanging wall a major extensional shear zone along which the ultra-high pressure metamorphic core of subducted Baltican crust was rapidly exhumed during the extensional collapse of the Caledonian orogeny. The timing of orogenic collapse corresponds closely to the timing of the basins, which are loosely constrained by sparse trace-fossil assemblages to a mid-Devonian age. Further, the basins are now in brittle fault contact with the underlying mylonitic shear zone and the metamorphic core, implying that they are the upper-crustal expression of large-scale extension and deep-crustal exhumation. Two distinct structural models have been proposed for Hornelen to account for these observations. The strike-slip model juxtaposes different source terranes across the basin-controlling fault and predicts spatially changing provenance within chronostratigraphic units. The supradetachment model links the filling of the basin directly to unroofing of the metamorphic core on a low-angle detachment fault, and predicts basin-wide changes in provenance through time with progressive exhumation of the metamorphic hinterland. We present an extensive new provenance dataset, spanning the Hornelen basin strata through space and time. Detrital zircon U/Pb ages from 18 new samples comprise three distinct populations (1.6, 1.0, and 0.43 Ga) with the Caledonian-aged zircons (ca 0.43 Ga) present mainly along the northern margin of the basin, representing an Upper Allochthon source not found on the southern or eastern margins of the basin. Juxtaposition of different source terranes across the basin supports the strike-slip model. 40Ar/39Ar detrital white mica from the same sample set documents a younging of the dominant age peak from 432 Ma in the oldest sediments to 401 Ma in the youngest units, but does not document any difference between northern and southern mica sources. This trend supports the supradetachment model, but may also be explained by passive, isostatically-driven erosional unroofing of the overthickened orogenic crust.

Development of a Mechanistically Based, Basin-Scale Stream Temperature Model: Applications to Cumulative Effects Modeling

Treesearch

Douglas Allen; William Dietrich; Peter Baker; Frank Ligon; Bruce Orr

2007-01-01

We describe a mechanistically-based stream model, BasinTemp, which assumes that direct shortwave radiation moderated by riparian and topographic shading, controls stream temperatures during the hottest part of the year. The model was developed to support a temperature TMDL for the South Fork Eel basin in Northern California and couples a GIS and a 1-D energy balance...

Parameterization and Uncertainty Analysis of SWAT model in Hydrological Simulation of Chaohe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jie, M.; Zhang, J.; Guo, B. B.

2017-12-01

As a typical distributed hydrological model, the SWAT model also has a challenge in calibrating parameters and analysis their uncertainty. This paper chooses the Chaohe River Basin China as the study area, through the establishment of the SWAT model, loading the DEM data of the Chaohe river basin, the watershed is automatically divided into several sub-basins. Analyzing the land use, soil and slope which are on the basis of the sub-basins and calculating the hydrological response unit (HRU) of the study area, after running SWAT model, the runoff simulation values in the watershed are obtained. On this basis, using weather data, known daily runoff of three hydrological stations, combined with the SWAT-CUP automatic program and the manual adjustment method are used to analyze the multi-site calibration of the model parameters. Furthermore, the GLUE algorithm is used to analyze the parameters uncertainty of the SWAT model. Through the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty study of SWAT, the results indicate that the parameterization of the hydrological characteristics of the Chaohe river is successful and feasible which can be used to simulate the Chaohe river basin.

A fate model for nitrogen dynamics in the Scheldt basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haest, Pieter Jan; van der Kwast, Johannes; Broekx, Steven; Seuntjens, Piet

2010-05-01

The European Union (EU) adopted the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in 2000 ensuring that all aquatic ecosystems meet ‘good ecological status' by 2015. However, the large population density in combination with agricultural and industrial activities in some European river basins pose challenges for river basin managers in meeting this status. The EU financed AQUAREHAB project (FP7) specifically examines the ecological and economic impact of innovative rehabilitation technologies for multi-pressured degraded waters. For this purpose, a numerical spatio-temporal model is developed to evaluate innovative technologies versus conventional measures at the river basin scale. The numerical model describes the nitrogen dynamics in the Scheldt river basin. Nitrogen is examined since nitrate is of specific concern in Belgium, the country comprising the largest area of the Scheldt basin. The Scheldt basin encompasses 20000 km2 and houses over 10 million people. The governing factors describing nitrogen fluxes at this large scale differ from the field scale with a larger uncertainty on input data. As such, the environmental modeling language PCRaster was selected since it was found to provide a balance between process descriptions and necessary input data. The resulting GIS-based model simulates the nitrogen dynamics in the Scheldt basin with a yearly time step and a spatial resolution of 1 square kilometer. A smaller time step is being evaluated depending on the description of the hydrology. The model discerns 4 compartments in the Scheldt basin: the soil, shallow groundwater, deep groundwater and the river network. Runoff and water flow occurs along the steepest slope in all model compartments. Diffuse emissions and direct inputs are calculated from administrative and statistical data. These emissions are geographically defined or are distributed over the domain according to land use and connectivity to the sewer system. The reactive mass transport is described using literature data. Process-knowledge on the innovative rehabilitation technologies, i.e. wetlands and riparian zones, will be derived from lab and field scale experiments. Datasets provided at the EU level are used to calibrate the model when available. The fate model will be used to create a database driven Decision Support System (DSS) in which costs of measures and ecotoxicological effects are considered. The DSS can then be used to compare alternative combinations of rehabilitation technologies versus conventional measures in the Scheldt river basin taking into account the ecological status of the river basin.

Feedbacks of sedimentation on crustal heat flow - New insights from the Vøring Basin, Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theissen, S.; Ruepke, L. H.

2009-04-01

Information on the nature and origin of rift basins is preserved in the presently observed stratigraphy. Basin modeling aims at recovering this information with the goal of quantifying a basin's structural and thermal evolution. Decompaction and backstripping analysis is a classic and still popular approach to basin reconstruction [Steckler and Watts, 1978]. The total and tectonic subsidences, as well as sedimentation rates are calculated by the consecutive decompaction and removal of individual layers. The thermal history has to be computed separately using forward thermal models. An alternative is coupled forward modeling, where the structural and thermal history is computed simultaneously. A key difference between these reconstruction methods is that feedbacks of sedimentation on crustal heat flow are often neglected in backstripping methods. In this work we use the coupled basin modeling approach presented by Rüpke et al. [2008] to quantify some of the feedbacks between sedimentation and heat flow and to explore the differences between both reconstruction approaches in a case study from the Vøring Basin, Norwegian Sea. In a series of synthetic model runs we have reviewed the effects of sedimentation on basement heat flow. These example calculations clearly confirm the well-known blanketing effect of sedimentation and show that it is largest for high sedimentation rates. Recovery of sedimentation rates from the stratigraphy is, however, not straightforward. Decompaction-based methods may systematically underestimate sedimentation rates as sediment thickness is assumed to not change/thin during stretching. We present a new method for computing sedimentation rates based on forward modeling and demonstrate the differences between both methods in terms of rates and thermal feedbacks in a reconstruction of the Vøring basin (Euromargin transect 2). We find that sedimentation rates are systematically higher in forward models and heat flow is clearly depressed during times of high sedimentation. In addition, computed subsidence curves can differ significantly between backtripping and forward modeling methods. This shows that integrated basin modeling is important for improved reconstructions of sedimentary basins and passive margins. Rupke, L. H., et al. (2008), Automated thermotectonostratigraphic basin reconstruction: Viking Graben case study, AAPG Bulletin, 92(3), 309-326. Steckler, M. S., and A. B. Watts (1978), SUBSIDENCE OF ATLANTIC-TYPE CONTINENTAL-MARGIN OFF NEW-YORK, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 41(1), 1-13.

Coupled SWAT-MODFLOW Model Development for Large Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aliyari, F.; Bailey, R. T.; Tasdighi, A.

2017-12-01

Water management in semi-arid river basins requires allocating water resources between urban, industrial, energy, and agricultural sectors, with the latter competing for necessary irrigation water to sustain crop yield. Competition between these sectors will intensify due to changes in climate and population growth. In this study, the recently developed SWAT-MODFLOW coupled hydrologic model is modified for application in a large managed river basin that provides both surface water and groundwater resources for urban and agricultural areas. Specific modifications include the linkage of groundwater pumping and irrigation practices and code changes to allow for the large number of SWAT hydrologic response units (HRU) required for a large river basin. The model is applied to the South Platte River Basin (SPRB), a 56,980 km2 basin in northeastern Colorado dominated by large urban areas along the front range of the Rocky Mountains and agriculture regions to the east. Irregular seasonal and annual precipitation and 150 years of urban and agricultural water management history in the basin provide an ideal test case for the SWAT-MODFLOW model. SWAT handles land surface and soil zone processes whereas MODFLOW handles groundwater flow and all sources and sinks (pumping, injection, bedrock inflow, canal seepage, recharge areas, groundwater/surface water interaction), with recharge and stream stage provided by SWAT. The model is tested against groundwater levels, deep percolation estimates, and stream discharge. The model will be used to quantify spatial groundwater vulnerability in the basin under scenarios of climate change and population growth.

Evaluation of the satellite derived snow cover area - Runoff forecasting models for the inaccessible basins of western Himalayas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dey, B.

1985-01-01

In this study, the existing seasonal snow cover area runoff forecasting models of the Indus, Kabul, Sutlej and Chenab basins were evaluated with the concurrent flow correlation model for the period 1975-79. In all the basins under study, correlation of concurrent flow model explained the variability in flow better than by the snow cover area runoff models. Actually, the concurrent flow correlation model explained more than 90 percent of the variability in the flow of these rivers. Compared to this model, the snow cover area runoff models explained less of the variability in flow. In the Himalayan river basins under study and at least for the period under observation, the concurrent flow correlation model provided a set of results with which to compare the estimates from the snow cover area runoff models.

Seismic Characterization of the Jakarta Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cipta, A.; Saygin, E.; Cummins, P. R.; Masturyono, M.; Rudyanto, A.; Irsyam, M.

2015-12-01

Jakarta, Indonesia, is home to more than 10 million people. Many of these people live in seismically non-resilient structures in an area that historical records suggest is prone to earthquake shaking. The city lies in a sedimentary basin composed of Quaternary alluvium that experiences rapid subsidence (26 cm/year) due to groundwater extraction. Forecasts of how much subsidence may occur in the future are dependent on the thickness of the basin. However, basin geometry and sediment thickness are poorly known. In term of seismic hazard, thick loose sediment can lead to high amplification of seismic waves, of the kind that led to widespread damage in Mexico city during the Michoacan Earthquake of 1985. In order to characterize basin structure, a temporary seismograph deployment was undertaken in Jakarta in Oct 2013- Jan 2014. A total of 96 seismic instrument were deployed throughout Jakarta were deployed throughout Jakarta at 3-5 km spacing. Ambient noise tomography was applied to obtain models of the subsurface velocity structure. Important key, low velocity anomalies at short period (<8s) correspond to the main sedimentary sub-basins thought to be present based on geological interpretations of shallow stratigraphy in the Jakarta Basin. The result shows that at a depth of 300 m, shear-wave velocity in the northern part (600 m/s) of the basin is lower than that in the southern part. The most prominent low velocity structure appears in the northwest of the basin, down to a depth of 800 m, with velocity as low as 1200 m/s. This very low velocity indicates the thickness of sediment and the variability of basin geometry. Waveform computation using SPECFEM2D shows that amplification due to basin geometry occurs at the basin edge and the thick sediment leads to amplification at the basin center. Computation also shows the longer shaking duration occurrs at the basin edge and center of the basin. The nest step will be validating the basin model using earthquake events recorded by the Jakarta array. The Bohol 2013 earthquake is one good candidate event for model validation. This will require using a source model for the Bohol earthquake and a plane wave input to SPECFEM3D.

Simulation of the Quantity, Variability, and Timing of Streamflow in the Dennys River Basin, Maine, by Use of a Precipitation-Runoff Watershed Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Maine Department of Marine Resources Bureau of Sea Run Fisheries and Habitat, began a study in 2004 to characterize the quantity, variability, and timing of streamflow in the Dennys River. The study included a synoptic summary of historical streamflow data at a long-term streamflow gage, collecting data from an additional four short-term streamflow gages, and the development and evaluation of a distributed-parameter watershed model for the Dennys River Basin. The watershed model used in this investigation was the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The Geographic Information System (GIS) Weasel was used to delineate the Dennys River Basin and subbasins and derive parameters for their physical geographic features. Calibration of the models used in this investigation involved a four-step procedure in which model output was evaluated against four calibration data sets using computed objective functions for solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, annual and seasonal water budgets, and daily streamflows. The calibration procedure involved thousands of model runs and was carried out using the USGS software application Luca (Let us calibrate). Luca uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) global search algorithm to calibrate the model parameters. The SCE method reliably produces satisfactory solutions for large, complex optimization problems. The primary calibration effort went into the Dennys main stem watershed model. Calibrated parameter values obtained for the Dennys main stem model were transferred to the Cathance Stream model, and a similar four-step SCE calibration procedure was performed; this effort was undertaken to determine the potential to transfer modeling information to a nearby basin in the same region. The calibrated Dennys main stem watershed model performed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) statistic values for the calibration period and evaluation period of 0.79 and 0.76, respectively. The Cathance Stream model had an NSE value of 0.68. The Dennys River Basin models make use of limited streamflow-gaging station data and provide information to characterize subbasin hydrology. The calibrated PRMS watershed models of the Dennys River Basin provide simulated daily streamflow time series from October 1, 1985, through September 30, 2006, for nearly any location within the basin. These models enable natural-resources managers to characterize the timing and quantity of water moving through the basin to support many endeavors including geochemical calculations, water-use assessment, Atlantic salmon population dynamics and migration modeling, habitat modeling and assessment, and other resource-management scenario evaluations. Characterizing streamflow contributions from subbasins in the basin and the relative amounts of surface- and ground-water contributions to streamflow throughout the basin will lead to a better understanding of water quantity and quality in the basin. Improved water-resources information will support Atlantic salmon protection efforts.

Hydrogeological bedrock inferred from electrical resistivity model in Taichung Basin, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, C. W.; Chang, P. Y.; Chang, L. C.

2015-12-01

The four-year project of the study of groundwater hydrogeology and recharge model was indicated by Central Geological Survey, MOEA, Taiwan (R.O.C.) to evaluate recharge groundwater areas in Taiwan where included Taipei, Taichung Basins, Lanyang and Chianan Plains. The groundwater recharge models of Lanyang Plain and Taipei Basin have successfully been estimated in two years ago (2013-2014). The third year of the project integrates with geophysical, geochemistry, and hydrogeology models to estimate the groundwater recharge model in Taichung Basin region. Taichung Basin is mainly covered by Pre-Pleistocene of thick gravel, sandy and muddy sediment rocks within a joint alluvial fan, whereas the depth of the hydrological bedrock remains uncertain. Two electrical resistivity geophysical tools were carried out utilizing direct current resistivity and audio-magnetotelluric (AMT) explorations, which could ideally provide the depth resolutions from shallow to depth for evaluating the groundwater resources. The study has carried out 21 AMT stations in the southern Taichung Basin in order to delineate hydrological bedrock in the region. All the AMT stations were deployed about 24 hours and processed with remote reference technique to reduce culture noises. The quality of most stations shows acceptable in the area which two stations were excluded due to near-field source effect in the southwestern basin. The best depth resolution is identified in 500 meters for the model. The preliminary result shows that the depths of the bedrock gradually changes from southern ~20 m toward to ~400 m in central, and eastern ~20 m to 180 m in the western basin inferred from the AMT model. The investigation shows that AMT method could be a useful geophysical tool to enhance the groundwater recharge model estimation without dense loggings in the region.

Using a basin-scale hydrological model to estimate crop transpiration and soil evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kite, G.

2000-03-01

Increasing populations and expectations, declining crop yields and the resulting increased competition for water necesitate improvements in irrigation management and productivity. A key factor in defining agricultural productivity is to be able to simulate soil evaporation and crop transpiration. In agribusiness terms, crop transpiration is a useful process while soil and open-water evaporations are wasteful processes. In this study a distributed hydrological model was used to compute daily evaporation and transpiration for a variety of crops and other land covers within the 17,200 km 2 Gediz Basin in western Turkey. The model, SLURP, describes the complete hydrological cycle for each land cover within a series of sub-basins including all dams, reservoirs, regulators and irrigation schemes in the basin. The sub-basins and land covers are defined by analysing a digital elevation model and NOAA AVHRR satellite data. In this study, the model uses the FAO implementation of the Penman-Monteith equation to simulate soil evaporation and crop transpiration. The results of the model runs provide time series of data on streamflow at many points along the river system, abstractions and return flows from crops within the irrigation schemes and areally distributed soil evaporation and crop transpiration across the entire basin on each day of an 11 year period. The results show that evaporation and transpiration vary widely across the basin on any one day and over the irrigation season and can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the various irrigation strategies used in the basin. The advantages of using such a model as compared to deriving evapotranspiration from satellite data are that the model obtains results for each day of an indefinitely long period, as opposed to occasional snapshots, and can also be used to simulate alternate scenarios.

Forecasting the Amount of Waste-Sewage Water Discharged into the Yangtze River Basin Based on the Optimal Fractional Order Grey Model

PubMed Central

Li, Shuliang; Meng, Wei; Xie, Yufeng

2017-01-01

With the rapid development of the Yangtze River economic belt, the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin increases sharply year by year, which has impeded the sustainable development of the Yangtze River basin. The water security along the Yangtze River basin is very important for China, It is something about water security of roughly one-third of China’s population and the sustainable development of the 19 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions among the Yangtze River basin. Therefore, a scientific prediction of the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into Yangtze River basin has a positive significance on sustainable development of industry belt along with Yangtze River basin. This paper builds the fractional DWSGM (1,1) (DWSGM (1,1) model is short for Discharge amount of Waste Sewage Grey Model for one order equation and one variable) model based on the fractional accumulating generation operator and fractional reducing operator, and calculates the optimal order of “r” by using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for solving the minimum average relative simulation error. Meanwhile, the simulation performance of DWSGM (1,1) model with the optimal fractional order is tested by comparing the simulation results of grey prediction models with different orders. Finally, the optimal fractional order DWSGM (1,1) grey model is applied to predict the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward through analyzing and comparing the prediction results. This paper has positive significance on enriching the fractional order modeling method of the grey system. PMID:29295517

Forecasting the Amount of Waste-Sewage Water Discharged into the Yangtze River Basin Based on the Optimal Fractional Order Grey Model.

PubMed

Li, Shuliang; Meng, Wei; Xie, Yufeng

2017-12-23

With the rapid development of the Yangtze River economic belt, the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin increases sharply year by year, which has impeded the sustainable development of the Yangtze River basin. The water security along the Yangtze River basin is very important for China, It is something aboutwater security of roughly one-third of China's population and the sustainable development of the 19 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions among the Yangtze River basin. Therefore, a scientific prediction of the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into Yangtze River basin has a positive significance on sustainable development of industry belt along with Yangtze River basin. This paper builds the fractional DWSGM(1,1)(DWSGM(1,1) model is short for Discharge amount of Waste Sewage Grey Model for one order equation and one variable) model based on the fractional accumulating generation operator and fractional reducing operator, and calculates the optimal order of "r" by using particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm for solving the minimum average relative simulation error. Meanwhile, the simulation performance of DWSGM(1,1)model with the optimal fractional order is tested by comparing the simulation results of grey prediction models with different orders. Finally, the optimal fractional order DWSGM(1,1)grey model is applied to predict the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward through analyzing and comparing the prediction results. This paper has positive significance on enriching the fractional order modeling method of the grey system.

Modeling pollution potential input from the drainage basin into Barra Bonita reservoir, São Paulo - Brazil.

PubMed

Prado, R B; Novo, E M L M

2015-05-01

In this study multi-criteria modeling tools are applied to map the spatial distribution of drainage basin potential to pollute Barra Bonita Reservoir, São Paulo State, Brasil. Barra Bonita Reservoir Basin had undergone intense land use/land cover changes in the last decades, including the fast conversion from pasture into sugarcane. In this respect, this study answers to the lack of information about the variables (criteria) which affect the pollution potential of the drainage basin by building a Geographic Information System which provides their spatial distribution at sub-basin level. The GIS was fed by several data (geomorphology, pedology, geology, drainage network and rainfall) provided by public agencies. Landsat satellite images provided land use/land cover map for 2002. Ratings and weights of each criterion defined by specialists supported the modeling process. The results showed a wide variability in the pollution potential of different sub-basins according to the application of different criterion. If only land use is analyzed, for instance, less than 50% of the basin is classified as highly threatening to water quality and include sub basins located near the reservoir, indicating the importance of protection areas at the margins. Despite the subjectivity involved in the weighing processes, the multi-criteria analysis model allowed the simulation of scenarios which support rational land use polices at sub-basin level regarding the protection of water resources.

Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

River Inflows into Lakes: Basin Temperature Profiles Driven By Peeling Detrainment from Dense Underflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogg, C. A. R.; Huppert, H. E.; Imberger, J.; Dalziel, S. B.

2014-12-01

Dense gravity currents from river inflows feed fluid into confined basins in lakes. Large inflows can influence temperature profiles in the basins. Existing parameterisations of the circulation and mixing of such inflows are often based on the entrainment of ambient fluid into the underflowing gravity currents. However, recent observations have suggested that uni-directional entrainment into a gravity current does not fully describe the transfer between such gravity currents and the ambient water. Laboratory experiments visualised peeling detrainment from the gravity current occurring when the ambient fluid was stratified. A theoretical model of the observed peeling detrainment was developed to predict the temperature profile in the basin. This new model gives a better approximation of the temperature profile observed in the experiments than the pre-existing entraining model. The model can now be developed such that it integrates into operational models of lake basins.

Integrating Remote Sensing Information Into A Distributed Hydrological Model for Improving Water Budget Predictions in Large-scale Basins through Data Assimilation.

PubMed

Qin, Changbo; Jia, Yangwen; Su, Z; Zhou, Zuhao; Qiu, Yaqin; Suhui, Shen

2008-07-29

This paper investigates whether remote sensing evapotranspiration estimates can be integrated by means of data assimilation into a distributed hydrological model for improving the predictions of spatial water distribution over a large river basin with an area of 317,800 km2. A series of available MODIS satellite images over the Haihe River basin in China are used for the year 2005. Evapotranspiration is retrieved from these 1×1 km resolution images using the SEBS (Surface Energy Balance System) algorithm. The physically-based distributed model WEP-L (Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins) is used to compute the water balance of the Haihe River basin in the same year. Comparison between model-derived and remote sensing retrieval basin-averaged evapotranspiration estimates shows a good piecewise linear relationship, but their spatial distribution within the Haihe basin is different. The remote sensing derived evapotranspiration shows variability at finer scales. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) data assimilation algorithm, suitable for non-linear problems, is used. Assimilation results indicate that remote sensing observations have a potentially important role in providing spatial information to the assimilation system for the spatially optical hydrological parameterization of the model. This is especially important for large basins, such as the Haihe River basin in this study. Combining and integrating the capabilities of and information from model simulation and remote sensing techniques may provide the best spatial and temporal characteristics for hydrological states/fluxes, and would be both appealing and necessary for improving our knowledge of fundamental hydrological processes and for addressing important water resource management problems.

Integrating Remote Sensing Information Into A Distributed Hydrological Model for Improving Water Budget Predictions in Large-scale Basins through Data Assimilation

PubMed Central

Qin, Changbo; Jia, Yangwen; Su, Z.(Bob); Zhou, Zuhao; Qiu, Yaqin; Suhui, Shen

2008-01-01

This paper investigates whether remote sensing evapotranspiration estimates can be integrated by means of data assimilation into a distributed hydrological model for improving the predictions of spatial water distribution over a large river basin with an area of 317,800 km2. A series of available MODIS satellite images over the Haihe River basin in China are used for the year 2005. Evapotranspiration is retrieved from these 1×1 km resolution images using the SEBS (Surface Energy Balance System) algorithm. The physically-based distributed model WEP-L (Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins) is used to compute the water balance of the Haihe River basin in the same year. Comparison between model-derived and remote sensing retrieval basin-averaged evapotranspiration estimates shows a good piecewise linear relationship, but their spatial distribution within the Haihe basin is different. The remote sensing derived evapotranspiration shows variability at finer scales. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) data assimilation algorithm, suitable for non-linear problems, is used. Assimilation results indicate that remote sensing observations have a potentially important role in providing spatial information to the assimilation system for the spatially optical hydrological parameterization of the model. This is especially important for large basins, such as the Haihe River basin in this study. Combining and integrating the capabilities of and information from model simulation and remote sensing techniques may provide the best spatial and temporal characteristics for hydrological states/fluxes, and would be both appealing and necessary for improving our knowledge of fundamental hydrological processes and for addressing important water resource management problems. PMID:27879946

Statistical Comparisons of watershed scale response to climate change in selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John; Moradkhani, Hamid; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steve

2011-01-01

In an earlier global climate-change study, air temperature and precipitation data for the entire twenty-first century simulated from five general circulation models were used as input to precalibrated watershed models for 14 selected basins across the United States. Simulated daily streamflow and energy output from the watershed models were used to compute a range of statistics. With a side-by-side comparison of the statistical analyses for the 14 basins, regional climatic and hydrologic trends over the twenty-first century could be qualitatively identified. Low-flow statistics (95% exceedance, 7-day mean annual minimum, and summer mean monthly streamflow) decreased for almost all basins. Annual maximum daily streamflow also decreased in all the basins, except for all four basins in California and the Pacific Northwest. An analysis of the supply of available energy and water for the basins indicated that ratios of evaporation to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to precipitation for most of the basins will increase. Probability density functions (PDFs) were developed to assess the uncertainty and multimodality in the impact of climate change on mean annual streamflow variability. Kolmogorov?Smirnov tests showed significant differences between the beginning and ending twenty-first-century PDFs for most of the basins, with the exception of four basins that are located in the western United States. Almost none of the basin PDFs were normally distributed, and two basins in the upper Midwest had PDFs that were extremely dispersed and skewed.

Eco-hydrological Responses to Soil and Water Conservation in the Jinghe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, H.; Jia, Y.; Qiu, Y.

2011-12-01

The Jinghe River Basin is one of the most serious soil erosion areas in the Loess Plateau. Many measures of soil and water conservation were applied in the basin. Terrestrial ecosystem model BIOME-BGC and distributed hydrological model WEP-L were used to build eco-hydrological model and verified by field observation and literature values. The model was applied in the Jinghe River Basin to analyze eco-hydrological responses under the scenarios of vegetation type change due to soil and water conservation polices. Four scenarios were set under the measures of conversion of cropland to forest, forestation on bare land, forestation on slope wasteland and planting grass on bare land. Analysis results show that the soil and water conservation has significant effects on runoff and the carbon cycle in the Jinghe River Basin: the average annual runoff would decrease and the average annual NPP and carbon storage would increase. Key words: soil and water conservation; conversion of cropland to forest; eco-hydrology response; the Jinghe River Basin

Congo Basin rainfall climatology: can we believe the climate models?

PubMed Central

Washington, Richard; James, Rachel; Pearce, Helen; Pokam, Wilfried M.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran

2013-01-01

The Congo Basin is one of three key convective regions on the planet which, during the transition seasons, dominates global tropical rainfall. There is little agreement as to the distribution and quantity of rainfall across the basin with datasets differing by an order of magnitude in some seasons. The location of maximum rainfall is in the far eastern sector of the basin in some datasets but the far western edge of the basin in others during March to May. There is no consistent pattern to this rainfall distribution in satellite or model datasets. Resolving these differences is difficult without ground-based data. Moisture flux nevertheless emerges as a useful variable with which to study these differences. Climate models with weak (strong) or even divergent moisture flux over the basin are dry (wet). The paper suggests an approach, via a targeted field campaign, for generating useful climate information with which to confront rainfall products and climate models. PMID:23878328

Comparative Synthesis of Current and Future Urban Stormwater Runoff Scenarios in Tampa Bay Basin under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

Changes in climatic regimes and basin characteristics such as imperviousness, roughness and land use types would lead to potential changes in stormwater budget. In this study we quantified reference sensitivities of stormwater runoff to the potential climatic and land use/cover changes by developing a large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model for the Tampa Bay Basin of Florida using the US EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Key processes of urban hydrology, its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea level, hydro-climatic variables and land use/cover characteristics were incorporated within the model. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. We then computed the historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets for the Tampa Bay Basin. Climatic scenario projected by the global climate models (GCMs) and the regional climate models (RCMs), along with sea level and land use/cover projections, were utilized to anticipate the future stormwater budget. The comparative assessment of current and future stormwater scenario will aid a proactive management of stormwater runoff under a changing climate in the Tampa Bay Basin and similar urban basins around the world.

Preliminary three-dimensional geohydrologic framework of the San Antonio Creek Groundwater Basin, Santa Barbara County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cromwell, G.; Sweetkind, D. S.; O'leary, D. R.

2017-12-01

The San Antonio Creek Groundwater Basin is a rural agricultural area that is heavily dependent on groundwater to meet local water demands. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working cooperatively with Santa Barbara County and Vandenberg Air Force Base to assess the quantity and quality of the groundwater resources within the basin. As part of this assessment, an integrated hydrologic model that will help stakeholders to effectively manage the water resources in the basin is being developed. The integrated hydrologic model includes a conceptual model of the subsurface geology consisting of stratigraphy and variations in lithology throughout the basin. The San Antonio Creek Groundwater Basin is a relatively narrow, east-west oriented valley that is structurally controlled by an eastward-plunging syncline. Basin-fill material beneath the valley floor consists of relatively coarse-grained, permeable, marine and non-marine sedimentary deposits, which are underlain by fine-grained, low-permeability, marine sedimentary rocks. To characterize the system, surficial and subsurface geohydrologic data were compiled from geologic maps, existing regional geologic models, and lithology and geophysical logs from boreholes, including two USGS multiple-well sites drilled as part of this study. Geohydrologic unit picks and lithologic variations are incorporated into a three-dimensional framework model of the basin. This basin (model) includes six geohydrologic units that follow the structure and stratigraphy of the area: 1) Bedrock - low-permeability marine sedimentary rocks; 2) Careaga Formation - fine to coarse grained near-shore sandstone; 3) Paso Robles Formation, lower portion - sandy-gravely deposits with clay and limestone; 4) Paso Robles Formation, middle portion - clayey-silty deposits; 5) Paso Robles Formation, upper portion - sandy-gravely deposits; and 6) recent Quaternary deposits. Hydrologic data show that the upper and lower portions of the Paso Robles Formation are the primary grou­ndwater-bearing units within the basin, and that the fine-grained layer within this Formation locally restricts vertical groundwater flow.

Comprehensive Analysis of Broadband Seismic Data in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tkalcic, H.; Rodgers, A.; Snelson, C.; McEwan, D.

2003-12-01

The city of Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the world. Its urban area is located in a relatively broad sedimentary basin in the Basin and Range Province. Acknowledging that Las Vegas of 2003 is drastically different from Las Vegas of a decade ago, our objectives are to understand and predict ground motions and evaluate the effects of possible future earthquakes and nuclear tests at Nevada Test Site (NTS) on buildings in Las Vegas. A model of the basin depth was derived from gravity data in an independent study, while a model of compressional velocity structure of the basin was derived from seismic refraction studies. We are using strong motion accelerometers regional data, as well as newly acquired broadband teleseismic data to evaluate these models, and predict ground motions at the surface. Delay times of about a dozen analyzed teleseismic P-waves show variation of up to 0.5 seconds across relatively short distances (15 km or less), providing some valuable information on basin shape and thickness. Teleseismic P-waves have favorable signal-to-noise for low frequencies (0.1 to 1.0 Hz). This provides complementary site response measurements to those obtained from regional earthquakes and explosions. Our results indicate a clear difference in site response between hard-rock and basin stations, with amplification reaching factor 5 for the basin stations. The measured P and S wave energies for the recorded data also corelate well with the existing basin depth model, providing additional constraint in modeling the basin shape and structure. We use time domain deconvolution receiver functions to constrain the position of basin boundaries and main crustal discontinuities. Finally, we simulate low frequency (f < 1 Hz) theoretical ground motion in Las Vegas Valley by an elastic finite difference code. Preliminary results show that we can predict relative amplification, as well as some of the complexity in the waveforms, even without invoking complex (and computationaly expensive) three-dimensional structural models. This work is in progress.

Integrated Hydrographical Basin Management. Study Case - Crasna River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visescu, Mircea; Beilicci, Erika; Beilicci, Robert

2017-10-01

Hydrographical basins are important from hydrological, economic and ecological points of view. They receive and channel the runoff from rainfall and snowmelt which, when adequate managed, can provide fresh water necessary for water supply, irrigation, food industry, animal husbandry, hydrotechnical arrangements and recreation. Hydrographical basin planning and management follows the efficient use of available water resources in order to satisfy environmental, economic and social necessities and constraints. This can be facilitated by a decision support system that links hydrological, meteorological, engineering, water quality, agriculture, environmental, and other information in an integrated framework. In the last few decades different modelling tools for resolving problems regarding water quantity and quality were developed, respectively water resources management. Watershed models have been developed to the understanding of water cycle and pollution dynamics, and used to evaluate the impacts of hydrotechnical arrangements and land use management options on water quantity, quality, mitigation measures and possible global changes. Models have been used for planning monitoring network and to develop plans for intervention in case of hydrological disasters: floods, flash floods, drought and pollution. MIKE HYDRO Basin is a multi-purpose, map-centric decision support tool for integrated hydrographical basin analysis, planning and management. MIKE HYDRO Basin is designed for analyzing water sharing issues at international, national and local hydrographical basin level. MIKE HYDRO Basin uses a simplified mathematical representation of the hydrographical basin including the configuration of river and reservoir systems, catchment hydrology and existing and potential water user schemes with their various demands including a rigorous irrigation scheme module. This paper analyzes the importance and principles of integrated hydrographical basin management and develop a case study for Crasna river basin, with the use of MIKE HYDRO Basin advanced hydroinformatic tool for integrated hydrographical basin analysis, planning and management.

Groundwater model of the Blue River basin, Nebraska-Twenty years later

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, W.M.; Emery, P.A.

1986-01-01

Groundwater flow models have become almost a routine tool of the practicing hydrologist. Yet, surprisingly little attention has been given to true verification analysis of studies using these models. This paper examines predictions for 1982 of water-level declines and streamflow depletions that were made in 1965 using an electric analog groundwater model of the Blue River basin in southeastern Nebraska. Analysis of the model's predictions suggests that the analog model used too low an estimate of net groundwater withdrawals, yet overestimated water-level declines. The model predicted that almost all of the net groundwater pumpage would come from storage in the Pleistocene aquifer within the Blue River basin. It appears likely that the model underestimated the contributions of other sources of water to the pumpage, and that the aquifer storage coefficients used in the model were too low. There is some evidence that groundwater pumpage has had a greater than predicted effect on streamflow. Considerable uncertainty about the basic conceptualization of the hydrology of the Blue River basin greatly limits the reliability of groundwater models developed for the basin. The paper concludes with general perspectives on groundwater modeling gained from this post-audit analysis. ?? 1986.

15. YAZOO BACKWATER PUMPING STATION MODEL, YAZOO RIVER BASIN (MODEL ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

15. YAZOO BACKWATER PUMPING STATION MODEL, YAZOO RIVER BASIN (MODEL SCALE: 1' = 26'). - Waterways Experiment Station, Hydraulics Laboratory, Halls Ferry Road, 2 miles south of I-20, Vicksburg, Warren County, MS

Exploring the causes of Colorado River streamflow declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Udall, B. H.

2016-12-01

As the major river of the Southwestern U.S., the Colorado River (CR) is central to the region's water resources. Over the period 1916-2014, the river's naturalized Apr-Sep flow at Lee's Ferry declined by 18.4%, a number that is closely matched (19.8%) by reconstructions for the same period using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. However, basin-average annual precipitation over that period declined by only 4.4%. In order to examine the causes of the runoff declines, we performed experiments with the VIC model in which we detrended the model's temperature forcings (about 1.6°C over the 100-year record) for each of 24 sub-basins that make up the basin. We find that decreases in winter precipitation (the season that controls annual runoff) mostly occured in the northeast part of the basin while summer precipitation decreases (which have much less effect on annual runoff) occurred over much of the lower basin. Our model simulations suggest that about 2/3 of observed runoff declines are attributable to decreases in winter precipitation (most importantly, in the upper basin, where most of the basin's runoff is generated). The remaining 1/3 is attributable to warming temperatures. We also examine what appear to be changing characteristics of droughts in the basin. Compared with a prolonged drought in the 1960s, which was characterized by abnormally low precipitation and cool temperatures, temperatures during the ongoing millennial drought have been much warmer, but winter precipitation anomalies have been only slightly negative. During the 2000s drought, the basin-wide runoff anomaly has been about -3.8 km3/yr, with four sub-basins in the northeastern part of the basin accounting for about 2/3 of the annual runoff anomaly.

Tectonoestratigraphic and Thermal Models of the Tiburon and Wagner Basins, northern Gulf of California Rift System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, J.; Ramirez Zerpa, N. A.; Negrete-Aranda, R.

2014-12-01

The northern Gulf of California Rift System consist sofa series faults that accommodate both normal and strike-slip motion. The faults formed a series of half-greens filled with more than 7 km of siliciclastic suc­cessions. Here, we present tectonostratigraphic and heat flow models for the Tiburón basin, in the southern part of the system, and the Wag­ner basin in the north. The models are constrained by two-dimensional seis­mic lines and by two deep boreholes drilled by PEMEX­-PEP. Analysis of the seismic lines and models' results show that: (i) subsidence of the basins is controlled by high-angle normal faults and by flow of the lower crust, (ii) basins share a common history, and (iii) there are significant differences in the way brittle strain was partitioned in the basins, a feature frequently observed in rift basins. On one hand, the bounding faults of the Tiburón basin have a nested geometry and became active following a west-to-east sequence of activation. The Tiburon half-graben was formed by two pulses of fault activity. One took place during the protogulf extensional phase in the Miocene and the other during the opening of Gulf of California in the Pleistocene. On the other hand, the Wagner basin is the result of two fault generations. During the late-to middle Miocene, the west-dipping Cerro Prieto and San Felipe faults formed a domino array. Then, during the Pleistocene the Consag and Wagner faults dissected the hanging-wall of the Cerro Prieto fault forming the modern Wagner basin. Thermal modeling of the deep borehole temperatures suggests that the heat flow in these basins in the order of 110 mW/m2 which is in agreement with superficial heat flow measurements in the northern Gulf of California Rift System.

Effects of natural and human factors on groundwater quality of basin-fill aquifers in the southwestern United States-conceptual models for selected contaminants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bexfield, Laura M.; Thiros, Susan A.; Anning, David W.; Huntington, Jena M.; McKinney, Tim S.

2011-01-01

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program, the Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study is building a better understanding of the factors that affect water quality in basin-fill aquifers in the Southwestern United States. The SWPA study area includes four principal aquifers of the United States: the Basin and Range basin-fill aquifers in California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona; the Rio Grande aquifer system in New Mexico and Colorado; and the California Coastal Basin and Central Valley aquifer systems in California. Similarities in the hydrogeology, land- and water-use practices, and water-quality issues for alluvial basins within the study area allow for regional analysis through synthesis of the baseline knowledge of groundwater-quality conditions in basins previously studied by the NAWQA Program. Resulting improvements in the understanding of the sources, movement, and fate of contaminants are assisting in the development of tools used to assess aquifer susceptibility and vulnerability.This report synthesizes previously published information about the groundwater systems and water quality of 15 information-rich basin-fill aquifers (SWPA case-study basins) into conceptual models of the primary natural and human factors commonly affecting groundwater quality with respect to selected contaminants, thereby helping to build a regional understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to those contaminants. Four relatively common contaminants (dissolved solids, nitrate, arsenic, and uranium) and two contaminant classes (volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and pesticide compounds) were investigated for sources and controls affecting their occurrence and distribution above specified levels of concern in groundwater of the case-study basins. Conceptual models of factors that are important to aquifer vulnerability with respect to those contaminants and contaminant classes were subsequently formed. The conceptual models are intended in part to provide a foundation for subsequent development of regional-scale statistical models that relate specific constituent concentrations or occurrence in groundwater to natural and human factors.

Mapping (un)certainties in the sign of hydrological projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melsen, Lieke; Addor, Nans; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew; Torfs, Paul; Clark, Martyn; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Ryan

2017-04-01

While hydrological projections are of vital importance, particularly for water infrastructure design and food production, they are also prone to different sources of uncertainty. Using a multi-model set-up we investigated the uncertainty in hydrological projections for the period 2070-2100 associated with the parameterization of hydrological models, hydrological model structure, and General Circulation Models (GCMs) needed to force the hydrological model, for 605 basins throughout the contiguous United States. The use of such a large sample of basins gave us the opportunity to recognize spatial patterns in the results, and to attribute the uncertainty to particular hydrological processes. We investigated the sign of the projected change in mean annual runoff. The parameterization influenced the sign of change in 5 to 34% of the basins, depending on the hydrological model and GCM forcing. The hydrological model structure led to uncertainty in the sign of the change in 13 to 26% of the basins, depending on GCM forcing. This uncertainty could largely be attributed to the conceptualization of snow processes in the hydrological models. In 14% of the basins, none of the hydrological models was behavioural, which could be related to catchments with high aridity and intermittent flow behaviour. In 41 to 69% of the basins, the sign of the change was uncertain due to GCM forcing, which could be attributed to disagreement among the climate models regarding the projected change in precipitation. The results demonstrate that even the sign of change in mean annual runoff is highly uncertain in the majority of the investigated basins. If we want to use hydrological projections for water management purposes, including the design of water infrastructure, we clearly need to increase our understanding of climate and hydrological processes and their feedbacks.

MODELING WILDLIFE RESPONSE TO LANDSCAPE CHANGE IN OREGON'S WILLAMETTE RIVER BASIN

EPA Science Inventory

The PATCH simulation model was used to predict the response of 17 wildlife species to
three plausible scenarios of habitat change in Oregon's Willamette River Basin. This 30
thousand square-kilometer basin comprises about 12% of the state of Oregon, encompasses extensive f...

Brugga basin's TACD Model Adaptation to current GIS PCRaster 4.1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez Rozo, Nicolas Antonio; Corzo Perez, Gerald Augusto; Santos Granados, Germán Ricardo

2017-04-01

The process-oriented catchment model TACD (Tracer-Aided Catchment model - Distributed) was developed in the Brugga Basin (Dark Forest, Germany) with a modular structure in the Geographic Information System PCRaster Version 2, in order to dynamically model the natural processes of a complex Basin, such as rainfall, air temperature, solar radiation, evapotranspiration and flow routing among others. Further research and application on this model has been done, such as adapting other meso-scaled basins and adding erosion processes in the hydrological model. However, TACD model is computationally intensive. This has made it not efficient on large and well discretized river basins. Aswell, the current version is not compatible with latest PCRaster Version 4.1, which offers new capabilities on 64-bit hardware architecture, hydraulic calculation improvements, in maps creation, some error and bug fixes. The current work studied and adapted TACD model into the latest GIS PCRaster Version 4.1. This was done by editing the original scripts, replacing deprecated functionalities without losing correctness of the TACD model. The correctness of the adapted TACD model was verified by using the original study case of the Brugga Basin and comparing the adapted model results with the original model results by Stefan Roser in 2001. Small differences were found due to the fact that some hydraulic and hydrological routines were optimized since version 2 of GIS PCRaster. Therefore, the hydraulic and hydrological processes are well represented. With this new working model, further research and development on current topics like uncertainty analysis, GCM downscaling techniques and spatio-temporal modelling are encouraged.

SENSITIVITY OF THE REGIONAL WATER BALANCE IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY: APPLICATION OF A SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED WATER BALANCE MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

A one-dimensional water balance model was developed and used to simulate water balance for the Columbia River Basin. he model was run over a 10 km X 10 km grid for the United State's portion of the basin. he regional water balance was calculated using a monthly time-step for a re...

New perspectives on the geometry of the Albuquerque Basin, Rio Grande rift, New Mexico: Insights from geophysical models of rift-fill thickness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grauch, V. J.; Connell, Sean D.

2013-01-01

Discrepancies among previous models of the geometry of the Albuquerque Basin motivated us to develop a new model using a comprehensive approach. Capitalizing on a natural separation between the densities of mainly Neogene basin fill (Santa Fe Group) and those of older rocks, we developed a three-dimensional (3D) geophysical model of syn-rift basin-fill thickness that incorporates well data, seismic-reflection data, geologic cross sections, and other geophysical data in a constrained gravity inversion. Although the resulting model does not show structures directly, it elucidates important aspects of basin geometry. The main features are three, 3–5-km-deep, interconnected structural depressions, which increase in size, complexity, and segmentation from north to south: the Santo Domingo, Calabacillas, and Belen subbasins. The increase in segmentation and complexity may reflect a transition of the Rio Grande rift from well-defined structural depressions in the north to multiple, segmented basins within a broader region of crustal extension to the south. The modeled geometry of the subbasins and their connections differs from a widely accepted structural model based primarily on seismic-reflection interpretations. Key elements of the previous model are an east-tilted half-graben block on the north separated from a west-tilted half-graben block on the south by a southwest-trending, scissor-like transfer zone. Instead, we find multiple subbasins with predominantly easterly tilts for much of the Albuquerque Basin, a restricted region of westward tilting in the southwestern part of the basin, and a northwesterly trending antiform dividing subbasins in the center of the basin instead of a major scissor-like transfer zone. The overall eastward tilt indicated by the 3D geophysical model generally conforms to stratal tilts observed for the syn-rift succession, implying a prolonged eastward tilting of the basin during Miocene time. An extensive north-south synform in the central part of the Belen subbasin suggests a possible path for the ancestral Rio Grande during late Miocene or early Pliocene time. Variations in rift-fill thickness correspond to pre-rift structures in several places, suggesting that a better understanding of pre-rift history may shed light on debates about structural inheritance within the rift.

Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model accurately simulated streamflow at four of six uncalibrated sites within the basin. Overall, there was good agreement between simulated and measured seasonal and annual volumes throughout the basin for calibration and validation sites. The calibration period ranged from 0.2 to 20.8 percent difference, and the validation period ranged from 0.0 to 19.5 percent difference across all seasons and total annual runoff. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model tended to underestimate lower streamflows compared to the observed streamflow values. This is an indication that the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling model needs more detailed groundwater and storage information to properly model the low-flow conditions in the Cedar River Basin.

Hydrogeologic framework and estimates of groundwater storage for the Hualapai Valley, Detrital Valley, and Sacramento Valley basins, Mohave County, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Truini, Margot; Beard, L. Sue; Kennedy, Jeffrey; Anning, Dave W.

2013-01-01

We have investigated the hydrogeology of the Hualapai Valley, Detrital Valley, and Sacramento Valley basins of Mohave County in northwestern Arizona to develop a better understanding of groundwater storage within the basin fill aquifers. In our investigation we used geologic maps, well-log data, and geophysical surveys to delineate the sedimentary textures and lithology of the basin fill. We used gravity data to construct a basin geometry model that defines smaller subbasins within the larger basins, and airborne transient-electromagnetic modeled results along with well-log lithology data to infer the subsurface distribution of basin fill within the subbasins. Hydrogeologic units (HGUs) are delineated within the subbasins on the basis of the inferred lithology of saturated basin fill. We used the extent and size of HGUs to estimate groundwater storage to depths of 400 meters (m) below land surface (bls). The basin geometry model for the Hualapai Valley basin consists of three subbasins: the Kingman, Hualapai, and southern Gregg subbasins. In the Kingman subbasin, which is estimated to be 1,200 m deep, saturated basin fill consists of a mixture of fine- to coarse-grained sedimentary deposits. The Hualapai subbasin, which is the largest of the subbasins, contains a thick halite body from about 400 m to about 4,300 m bls. Saturated basin fill overlying the salt body consists predominately of fine-grained older playa deposits. In the southern Gregg subbasin, which is estimated to be 1,400 m deep, saturated basin fill is interpreted to consist primarily of fine- to coarse-grained sedimentary deposits. Groundwater storage to 400 m bls in the Hualapai Valley basin is estimated to be 14.1 cubic kilometers (km3). The basin geometry model for the Detrital Valley basin consists of three subbasins: northern Detrital, central Detrital, and southern Detrital subbasins. The northern and central Detrital subbasins are characterized by a predominance of playa evaporite and fine-grained clastic deposits; evaporite deposits in the northern Detrital subbasin include halite. The northern Detrital subbasin is estimated to be 600 m deep and the middle Detrital subbasin is estimated to be 700 m deep. The southern Detrital subbasin, which is estimated to be 1,500 m deep, is characterized by a mixture of fine- to coarse-grained basin fill deposits. Groundwater storage to 400 m bls in the Detrital Valley basin is estimated to be 9.8 km3. The basin geometry model for the Sacramento Valley basin consists of three subbasins: the Chloride, Golden Valley, and Dutch Flat subbasins. The Chloride subbasin, which is estimated to be 900 m deep, is characterized by fine- to coarse-grained basin fill deposits. In the Golden Valley subbasin, which is elongated north-south, and is estimated to be 1,300 m deep, basin fill includes fine-grained sedimentary deposits overlain by coarse-grained sedimentary deposits in much of the subbasin. The Dutch Flat subbasin is estimated to be 2,600 m deep, and well-log lithologic data suggest that the basin fill consists of interlayers of gravel, sand, and clay. Groundwater storage to 400 m bls in the Sacramento Valley basin is estimated to be 35.1 km3.

Estimating basin scale evapotranspiration (ET) by water balance and remote sensing methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senay, G.B.; Leake, S.; Nagler, P.L.; Artan, G.; Dickinson, J.; Cordova, J.T.; Glenn, E.P.

2011-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important hydrological process that can be studied and estimated at multiple spatial scales ranging from a leaf to a river basin. We present a review of methods in estimating basin scale ET and its applications in understanding basin water balance dynamics. The review focuses on two aspects of ET: (i) how the basin scale water balance approach is used to estimate ET; and (ii) how ‘direct’ measurement and modelling approaches are used to estimate basin scale ET. Obviously, the basin water balance-based ET requires the availability of good precipitation and discharge data to calculate ET as a residual on longer time scales (annual) where net storage changes are assumed to be negligible. ET estimated from such a basin water balance principle is generally used for validating the performance of ET models. On the other hand, many of the direct estimation methods involve the use of remotely sensed data to estimate spatially explicit ET and use basin-wide averaging to estimate basin scale ET. The direct methods can be grouped into soil moisture balance modelling, satellite-based vegetation index methods, and methods based on satellite land surface temperature measurements that convert potential ET into actual ET using a proportionality relationship. The review also includes the use of complementary ET estimation principles for large area applications. The review identifies the need to compare and evaluate the different ET approaches using standard data sets in basins covering different hydro-climatic regions of the world.

Estimating mountain basin-mean precipitation from streamflow using Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2015-10-01

Estimating basin-mean precipitation in complex terrain is difficult due to uncertainty in the topographical representativeness of precipitation gauges relative to the basin. To address this issue, we use Bayesian methodology coupled with a multimodel framework to infer basin-mean precipitation from streamflow observations, and we apply this approach to snow-dominated basins in the Sierra Nevada of California. Using streamflow observations, forcing data from lower-elevation stations, the Bayesian Total Error Analysis (BATEA) methodology and the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), we infer basin-mean precipitation, and compare it to basin-mean precipitation estimated using topographically informed interpolation from gauges (PRISM, the Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model). The BATEA-inferred spatial patterns of precipitation show agreement with PRISM in terms of the rank of basins from wet to dry but differ in absolute values. In some of the basins, these differences may reflect biases in PRISM, because some implied PRISM runoff ratios may be inconsistent with the regional climate. We also infer annual time series of basin precipitation using a two-step calibration approach. Assessment of the precision and robustness of the BATEA approach suggests that uncertainty in the BATEA-inferred precipitation is primarily related to uncertainties in hydrologic model structure. Despite these limitations, time series of inferred annual precipitation under different model and parameter assumptions are strongly correlated with one another, suggesting that this approach is capable of resolving year-to-year variability in basin-mean precipitation.

Surface-water hydrology and runoff simulations for three basins in Pierce County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, M.C.

1996-01-01

The surface-water hydrology in Clear, Clarks, and Clover Creek Basins in central Pierce County, Washington, is described with a conceptual model of the runoff processes and then simulated with the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), a continuous, deterministic hydrologic model. The study area is currently undergoing a rapid conversion of rural, undeveloped land to urban and suburban land that often changes the flow characteristics of the streams that drain these lands. The complex interactions of land cover, climate, soils, topography, channel characteristics, and ground- water flow patterns determine the surface-water hydrology of the study area and require a complex numerical model to assess the impact of urbanization on streamflows. The U.S. Geological Survey completed this investigation in cooperation with the Storm Drainage and Surface Water Management Utility within the Pierce County Department of Public Works to describe the important rainfall-runoff processes within the study area and to develop a simulation model to be used as a tool to predict changes in runoff characteristics resulting from changes in land use. The conceptual model, a qualitative representation of the study basins, links the physical characteristics to the runoff process of the study basins. The model incorporates 11 generalizations identified by the investigation, eight of which describe runoff from hillslopes, and three that account for the effects of channel characteristics and ground-water flow patterns on runoff. Stream discharge was measured at 28 sites and precipitation was measured at six sites for 3 years in two overlapping phases during the period of October 1989 through September 1992 to calibrate and validate the simulation model. Comparison of rainfall data from October 1989 through September 1992 shows the data-collection period beginning with 2 wet water years followed by the relatively dry 1992 water year. Runoff was simulated with two basin models-the Clover Creek Basin model and the Clear-Clarks Basin model-by incorporating the generalizations of the conceptual model into the construction of two HSPF numerical models. Initially, the process-related parameters for runoff from glacial-till hillslopes were calibrated with numerical models for three catchment sites and one headwater basin where streamflows were continuously measured and little or no influence from ground water, channel storage, or channel losses affected runoff. At one of the catchments soil moisture was monitored and compared with simulated soil moisture. The values for these parameters were used in the basin models. Basin models were calibrated to the first year of observed streamflow data by adjusting other parameters in the numerical model that simulated channel losses, simulated channel storage in a few of the reaches in the headwaters and in the floodplain of the main stem of Clover Creek, and simulated volume and outflow of the ground-water reservoir representing the regional ground-water aquifers. The models were run for a second year without any adjustments, and simulated results were compared with observed results as a measure of validation of the models. The investigation showed the importance of defining the ground-water flow boundaries and demonstrated a simple method of simulating the influence of the regional ground-water aquifer on streamflows. In the Clover Creek Basin model, ground-water flow boundaries were used to define subbasins containing mostly glacial outwash soils and not containing any surface drainage channels. In the Clear-Clarks Basin model, ground-water flow boundaries outlined a recharge area outside the surface-water boundaries of the basin that was incorporated into the model in order to provide sufficient water to balance simulated ground-water outflows to the creeks. A simulated ground-water reservoir used to represent regional ground-water flow processes successfully provided the proper water balance of inflows and outfl

Evaluation of nutrient retention in vegetated filter strips using the SWAT model.

PubMed

Elçi, Alper

2017-11-01

Nutrient fluxes in stream basins need to be controlled to achieve good water quality status. In stream basins with intensive agricultural activities, nutrients predominantly come from diffuse sources. Therefore, best management practices (BMPs) are increasingly implemented to reduce nutrient input to streams. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of vegetated filter strip (VFS) application as an agricultural BMP. For this purpose, SWAT is chosen, a semi-distributed water quality assessment model that works at the watershed scale, and applied on the Nif stream basin, a small-sized basin in Western Turkey. The model is calibrated with an automated procedure against measured monthly discharge data. Nutrient loads for each sub-basin are estimated considering basin-wide data on chemical fertilizer and manure usage, population data for septic tank effluents and information about the land cover. Nutrient loads for 19 sub-basins are predicted on an annual basis. Average total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads are estimated as 47.85 t/yr and 13.36 t/yr for the entire basin. Results show that VFS application in one sub-basin offers limited retention of nutrients and that a selection of 20-m filter width is most effective from a cost-benefit perspective.

Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

2016-04-01

The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) [1] led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this study [2] we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. We do not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but we aim to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for ungauged catchments. [1] Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S., Gupta, V., Karambiri, H., Lakshmi, V., et al. (2003). IAHS decade on predictions in ungauged basins (PUB), 2003-2012: shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences. Hydrol. Sci. J. 48, 857-880. doi: 10.1623/hysj.48.6.857.51421 [2] van Emmerik, T., Mulder, G., Eilander, D., Piet, M. and Savenije, H. (2015). Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment. Front. Earth Sci. 3:62. doi: 10.3389/feart.2015.00062

Report of the Workshop on Geologic Applications of Remote Sensing to the Study of Sedimentary Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, H. R. (Editor)

1985-01-01

The Workshop on Geologic Applications of Remote Sensing to the Study of Sedimentary Basins, held January 10 to 11, 1985 in Lakewood, Colorado, involved 43 geologists from industry, government, and academia. Disciplines represented ranged from vertebrate paleontology to geophysical modeling of continents. Deliberations focused on geologic problems related to the formation, stratigraphy, structure, and evolution of foreland basins in general, and to the Wind River/Bighorn Basin area of Wyoming in particular. Geological problems in the Wind River/Bighorn basin area that should be studied using state-of-the-art remote sensing methods were identified. These include: (1) establishing the stratigraphic sequence and mapping, correlating, and analyzing lithofacies of basin-filling strata in order to refine the chronology of basin sedimentation, and (2) mapping volcanic units, fracture patterns in basement rocks, and Tertiary-Holocene landforms in searches for surface manifestations of concealed structures in order to refine models of basin tectonics. Conventional geologic, topographic, geophysical, and borehole data should be utilized in these studies. Remote sensing methods developed in the Wind River/Bighorn Basin area should be applied in other basins.

Theory Can Help Structure Regression Models for Projecting Stream Conditions Under Alternative Land Use Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sickle, J.; Baker, J.; Herlihy, A.

2005-05-01

We built multiple regression models for Emphemeroptera/ Plecoptera/ Tricoptera (EPT) taxon richness and other indicators of biological condition in streams of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. The models were used to project the changes in condition that would be expected in all 2-4th order streams of the 30000 sq km basin under alternative scenarios of future land use. In formulating the models, we invoked the theory of limiting factors to express the interactive effects of stream power and watershed land use on EPT richness. The resulting models were parsimonious, and they fit the data in our wedge-shaped scatterplots slightly better than did a naive additive-effects model. Just as theory helped formulate our regression models, the models in turn helped us identify a new research need for the Basin's streams. Our future scenarios project that conversions of agricultural to urban uses may dominate landscape dynamics in the basin over the next 50 years. But our models could not detect any difference between the effects of agricultural and urban development in watersheds on stream biota. This result points to an increased need for understanding how agricultural and urban land uses in the Basin differentially influence stream ecosystems.

Hydrologic modeling of Guinale River Basin using HEC-HMS and synthetic aperture radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bien, Ferdinand E.; Plopenio, Joanaviva C.

2017-09-01

This paper presents the methods and results of hydrologic modeling of Guinale river basin through the use of HEC-HMS software and Synthetic Aperture Radar Digital Elevation Model (SAR DEM). Guinale River Basin is located in the province of Albay, Philippines which is one of the river basins covered by the Ateneo de Naga University (ADNU) Phil-LiDAR 1. This research project was funded by the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) through the Philippine Council for Industry, Energy and Emerging Technology Research and Development (PCIEERD). Its objectives are to simulate the hydrologic model of Guinale River basin using HEC-HMS software and SAR DEM. Its basin covers an area of 165.395 sq.km. and the hydrologic model was calibrated using the storm event typhoon Nona (international name Melor). Its parameter had undergone a series of optimization processes of HEC-HMS software in order to produce an acceptable level of model efficiency. The Nash-Sutcliffe (E), Percent Bias and Standard Deviation Ratio were used to measure the model efficiency, giving values of 0.880, 0.260 and 0.346 respectively which resulted to a "very good" performance rating of the model. The flood inundation model was simulated using Legazpi Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves (RIDF) and HEC-RAS software developed by the US Army corps of Engineers (USACE). This hydrologic model will provide the Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office (MDRRMO), Local Government units (LGUs) and the community a tool for the prediction of runoff in the area.

17. YAZOO BACKWATER PUMPING STATION MODEL, YAZOO RIVER BASIN. ENGINEERS ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

17. YAZOO BACKWATER PUMPING STATION MODEL, YAZOO RIVER BASIN. ENGINEERS EXAMINING MODEL PUMPS, VIEW FROM MODEL BED. - Waterways Experiment Station, Hydraulics Laboratory, Halls Ferry Road, 2 miles south of I-20, Vicksburg, Warren County, MS

Combining point and distributed snowpack data with landscape-based discretization for hydrologic modeling of the snow-dominated Maipo River basin, in the semi-arid Andes of Central Chile.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPhee, James; Videla, Yohann

2014-05-01

The 5000-km2 upper Maipo River Basin, in central Chile's Andes, has an adequate streamgage network but almost no meteorological or snow accumulation data. Therefore, hydrologic model parameterization is strongly subject to model errors stemming from input and model-state uncertainty. In this research, we apply the Cold Regions Hydrologic Model (CRHM) to the basin, force it with reanalysis data downscaled to an appropriate resolution, and inform a parsimonious basin discretization, based on the hydrologic response unit concept, with distributed data on snowpack properties obtained through snow surveys for two seasons. With minimal calibration the model is able to reproduce the seasonal accumulation and melt cycle as recorded in the one snow pillow available for the basin, and although a bias in maximum accumulation persists, snowpack persistence in time is appropriately simulated based on snow water equivalent and snow covered area observations. Blowing snow events were simulated by the model whenever daily wind speed surpassed 8 m/s, although the use of daily instead of hourly data to force the model suggests that this phenomenon could be underestimated. We investigate the representation of snow redistribution by the model, and compare it with small-scale observations of wintertime snow accumulation on glaciers, in a first step towards characterizing ice distribution within a HRU spatial discretization. Although built at a different spatial scale, we present a comparison of simulated results with distributed snow depth data obtained within a 40 km2 sub-basin of the main Maipo watershed in two snow surveys carried out at the end of winter seasons 2011 and 2012, and compare basin-wide SWE estimates with a regression tree extrapolation of the observed data.

Tectonic evolution of the Salton Sea inferred from seismic reflection data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brothers, D.S.; Driscoll, N.W.; Kent, G.M.; Harding, A.J.; Babcock, J.M.; Baskin, R.L.

2009-01-01

Oblique extension across strike-slip faults causes subsidence and leads to the formation of pull-apart basins such as the Salton Sea in southern California. The formation of these basins has generally been studied using laboratory experiments or numerical models. Here we combine seismic reflection data and geological observations from the Salton Sea to understand the evolution of this nascent pull-apart basin. Our data reveal the presence of a northeast-trending hinge zone that separates the sea into northern and southern sub-basins. Differential subsidence (10 mm yr 1) in the southern sub-basin suggests the existence of northwest-dipping basin-bounding faults near the southern shoreline, which may control the spatial distribution of young volcanism. Rotated and truncated strata north of the hinge zone suggest that the onset of extension associated with this pull-apart basin began after 0.5 million years ago. We suggest that slip is partitioned spatially and temporally into vertical and horizontal domains in the Salton Sea. In contrast to previous models based on historical seismicity patterns, the rapid subsidence and fault architecture that we document in the southern part of the sea are consistent with experimental models for pull-apart basins. ?? 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited.

The Hula Valley subsurface structure inferred from gravity data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rybakov, M.; Fleischer, L.; ten Brink, Uri S.

2003-01-01

We use the 3-D gravity inversion technique to model the shape of the Hula basin, a pull-apart basin along the Dead Sea Transform. The interpretation was constrained using the Notera-3-well density logs and current geological knowledge. The model obtained by inversion shows a rhomb-shaped graben filled with approximately 4 km of young sediments in the deepest part of the basin. The reliability of this model was verified using 3-D forward modeling with an accuracy of 0.5 km. Curvature attributes of the gravity field depict the main fault pattern, suggesting that the Hula basin is a subsiding rhomb-shaped graben, bordered by steep-sided, deep basement faults on the western and eastern sides (Qiryat Shemona and Jordan River faults) and by gradual, en-echelon step faults on the southern and northern margins of the basin. ?? 2003 Laser Pages Publishing Ltd.

Model study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masood, M.; Yeh, P. J.-F.; Hanasaki, N.; Takeuchi, K.

2014-06-01

The intensity, duration, and geographic extent of floods in Bangladesh mostly depend on the combined influences of three river systems, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM). In addition, climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology and water resources of the GBM basins and might ultimately lead to more serious floods in Bangladesh. However, the assessment of climate change impacts on basin-scale hydrology by using well-constrained hydrologic modelling has rarely been conducted for GBM basins due to the lack of data for model calibration and validation. In this study, a macro-scale hydrologic model H08 has been applied regionally over the basin at a relatively fine grid resolution (10 km) by integrating the fine-resolution (~0.5 km) DEM data for accurate river networks delineation. The model has been calibrated via analyzing model parameter sensitivity and validated based on a long-term observed daily streamflow data. The impact of climate change on not only the runoff, but also the basin-scale hydrology including evapotranspiration, soil moisture and net radiation have been assessed in this study through three time-slice experiments; present-day (1979-2003), near-future (2015-2039) and far-future (2075-2099) periods. Results shows that, by the end of 21st century (a) the entire GBM basin is projected to be warmed by ~3°C (b) the changes of mean precipitation are projected to be +14.0, +10.4, and +15.2%, and the changes of mean runoff to be +14, +15, and +18% in the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna basin respectively (c) evapotranspiration is predicted to increase significantly for the entire GBM basins (Brahmaputra: +14.4%, Ganges: +9.4%, Meghna: +8.8%) due to increased net radiation (Brahmaputra: +6%, Ganges: +5.9%, Meghna: +3.3%) as well as warmer air temperature. Changes of hydrologic variables will be larger in dry season (November-April) than that in wet season (May-October). Amongst three basins, Meghna shows the largest hydrological response which indicates higher possibility of flood occurrence in this basin. The uncertainty due to the specification of key model parameters in predicting hydrologic quantities, has also been analysed explicitly in this study and found that the uncertainty in estimation of runoff, evapotranspiration and net radiation is relatively less. However, the uncertainty in estimation of soil moisture is quite large (coefficient of variation ranges from 11 to 33% for three basins). It is significant in land use management, agriculture in particular and highlights the necessity of physical observation of soil moisture.

Three-dimensional geologic mapping of the Cenozoic basin fill, Amargosa Desert basin, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Emily M.; Sweetkind, Donald S.

2014-01-01

Understanding the subsurface geologic framework of the Cenozoic basin fill that underlies the Amargosa Desert in southern Nevada and southeastern California has been improved by using borehole data to construct three-dimensional lithologic and interpreted facies models. Lithologic data from 210 boreholes from a 20-kilometer (km) by 90-km area were reduced to a limited suite of descriptors based on geologic knowledge of the basin and distributed in three-dimensional space using interpolation methods. The resulting lithologic model of the Amargosa Desert basin portrays a complex system of interfingered coarse- to fine-grained alluvium, playa and palustrine deposits, eolian sands, and interbedded volcanic units. Lithologic units could not be represented in the model as a stacked stratigraphic sequence due to the complex interfingering of lithologic units and the absence of available time-stratigraphic markers. Instead, lithologic units were grouped into interpreted genetic classes, such as playa or alluvial fan, to create a three-dimensional model of the interpreted facies data. Three-dimensional facies models computed from these data portray the alluvial infilling of a tectonically formed basin with intermittent internal drainage and localized regional groundwater discharge. The lithologic and interpreted facies models compare favorably to resistivity, aeromagnetic, and geologic map data, lending confidence to the interpretation.

Future Visions of the Brahmaputra - Establishing Hydrologic Baseline and Water Resources Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Yang, Y. E.; Wi, S.; Brown, C. M.

2013-12-01

The Brahmaputra River Basin (China-India-Bhutan-Bangladesh) is on the verge of a transition from a largely free flowing and highly variable river to a basin of rapid investment and infrastructure development. This work demonstrates a knowledge platform for the basin that compiles available data, and develops hydrologic and water resources system models of the basin. A Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model of the Brahmaputra basin supplies hydrologic information of major tributaries to a water resources system model, which routes runoff generated via the VIC model through water infrastructure, and accounts for water withdrawals for agriculture, hydropower generation, municipal demand, return flows and others human activities. The system model also simulates agricultural production and the economic value of water in its various uses, including municipal, agricultural, and hydropower. Furthermore, the modeling framework incorporates plausible climate change scenarios based on the latest projections of changes to contributing glaciers (upstream), as well as changes to monsoon behavior (downstream). Water resources projects proposed in the Brahmaputra basin are evaluated based on their distribution of benefits and costs in the absence of well-defined water entitlements, and relative to a complex regional water-energy-food nexus. Results of this project will provide a basis for water sharing negotiation among the four countries and inform trans-national water-energy policy making.

Crustal structure in the Falcón Basin area, northwestern Venezuela, from seismic and gravimetric evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bezada, Maximiliano J.; Schmitz, Michael; Jácome, María Inés; Rodríguez, Josmat; Audemard, Franck; Izarra, Carlos; The Bolivar Active Seismic Working Group

2008-05-01

The Falcón Basin in northwestern Venezuela has a complex geological history driven by the interactions between the South American and Caribbean plates. Igneous intrusive bodies that outcrop along the axis of the basin have been associated with crustal thinning, and gravity modeling has shown evidence for a significantly thinned crust beneath the basin. In this study, crustal scale seismic refraction/wide-angle reflection data derived from onshore/offshore active seismic experiments are interpreted and forward-modeled to generate a P-wave velocity model for a ˜450 km long profile. The final model shows thinning of the crust beneath the Falcón Basin where depth to Moho decreases to 27 km from a value of 40 km about 100 km to the south. A deeper reflected phase on the offshore section is interpreted to be derived from the downgoing Caribbean slab. Velocity values were converted to density and the resulting gravimetric response was shown to be consistent with the regional gravity anomaly. The crustal thinning proposed here supports a rift origin for the Falcón Basin.

Deviation of Long-Period Tides from Equilibrium: Kinematics and Geostrophy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Egbert, Gary D.; Ray, Richard D.

2003-01-01

New empirical estimates of the long-period fortnightly (Mf) tide obtained from TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) altimeter data confirm significant basin-scale deviations from equilibrium. Elevations in the low-latitude Pacific have reduced amplitude and lag those in the Atlantic by 30 deg or more. These interbasin amplitude and phase variations are robust features that are reproduced by numerical solutions of the shallow-water equations, even for a constant-depth ocean with schematic interconnected rectangular basins. A simplified analytical model for cooscillating connected basins also reproduces the principal features observed in the empirical solutions. This simple model is largely kinematic. Zonally averaged elevations within a simple closed basin would be nearly in equilibrium with the gravitational potential, except for a constant offset required to conserve mass. With connected basins these offsets are mostly eliminated by interbasin mass flux. Because of rotation, this flux occurs mostly in a narrow boundary layer across the mouth and at the western edge of each basin, and geostrophic balance in this zone supports small residual offsets (and phase shifts) between basins. The simple model predicts that this effect should decrease roughly linearly with frequency, a result that is confirmed by numerical modeling and empirical T/P estimates of the monthly (Mm) tidal constituent. This model also explains some aspects of the anomalous nonisostatic response of the ocean to atmospheric pressure forcing at periods of around 5 days.

Improving the Inventory of Large Lunar Basins: Using LOLA Data to Test Previous Candidates and Search for New Ones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frey, H. V.; Meyer, H. M.; Romine, G. C.

2012-01-01

Topography and crustal thickness data from LOLA altimetry were used to test the validity of 98 candidate large lunar basins derived from photogeologic and earlier topographic and crustal thickness data, and to search for possible new candidates. We eliminate 23 previous candidates but find good evidence for 20 new candidates. The number of basins greater than 300 km diameter on the Moon is almost certainly a factor 2 (maybe 3?) larger than the number of named features having basin-like topography. Unified Lunar Control Net 2005 data [1] and model crustal thickness data [2] were previously used to search for possible previously unrecognized large lunar impact basins [3,4]. An inventory of 98 candidate topographic basins greater than 300 km in diameter was found [5]. This includes 33 named features (only those having basin-like topography) out of the 45 listed by Wilhelms [6], 38 additional Quasi-Circular Depressions (QCDs) found in the ULCN2005 topography, and 27 Circular Thin Areas (CTAs) found in model crustal thickness data [2]. Most named features and additional QCDs have strong CTA signatures, but there may be a class of CTAs that are not easily recognized in the old and low resolution ULCN2005 topography. Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) data have recently become publically available. We used these data to (a) refine the center and ring diameters of known basins, (b) test the viability of the candidate basins previously found (as described above), and (c) search for additional candidate basins not revealed by the earlier lower resolution data. We used the LOLA topography directly but also a recent new model crustal thickness data that includes Kaguya gravity data [7]. We repeated a Topographic Expression (TE) and a Crustal Thickness Expression (CTE) scoring exercise originally done with the basins found in ULCN and earlier model crustal thickness data [5]. Each candidate was scored on a scale from 0 (no topographic basin or circular thin area signature) to 5 (strong circular low or strong circular thin area signature). These were combined into a total score used to rank the probability for each candidate basin. We used the same GRIDVIEW software to stretch, contour and profile the LOLA and new crustal thickness data as was done with the ULCN2005 and older model crustal thickness data.

Quantification of water resources uncertainties in the Luvuvhu sub-basin of the Limpopo river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oosthuizen, N.; Hughes, D.; Kapangaziwiri, E.; Mwenge Kahinda, J.; Mvandaba, V.

2018-06-01

In the absence of historical observed data, models are generally used to describe the different hydrological processes and generate data and information that will inform management and policy decision making. Ideally, any hydrological model should be based on a sound conceptual understanding of the processes in the basin and be backed by quantitative information for the parameterization of the model. However, these data are often inadequate in many sub-basins, necessitating the incorporation of the uncertainty related to the estimation process. This paper reports on the impact of the uncertainty related to the parameterization of the Pitman monthly model and water use data on the estimates of the water resources of the Luvuvhu, a sub-basin of the Limpopo river basin. The study reviews existing information sources associated with the quantification of water balance components and gives an update of water resources of the sub-basin. The flows generated by the model at the outlet of the basin were between 44.03 Mm3 and 45.48 Mm3 per month when incorporating +20% uncertainty to the main physical runoff generating parameters. The total predictive uncertainty of the model increased when water use data such as small farm and large reservoirs and irrigation were included. The dam capacity data was considered at an average of 62% uncertainty mainly as a result of the large differences between the available information in the national water resources database and that digitised from satellite imagery. Water used by irrigated crops was estimated with an average of about 50% uncertainty. The mean simulated monthly flows were between 38.57 Mm3 and 54.83 Mm3 after the water use uncertainty was added. However, it is expected that the uncertainty could be reduced by using higher resolution remote sensing imagery.

A Regionalization Approach to select the final watershed parameter set among the Pareto solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, G. H.; Micheletty, P. D.; Carney, S.; Quebbeman, J.; Day, G. N.

2017-12-01

The calibration of hydrological models often results in model parameters that are inconsistent with those from neighboring basins. Considering that physical similarity exists within neighboring basins some of the physically related parameters should be consistent among them. Traditional manual calibration techniques require an iterative process to make the parameters consistent, which takes additional effort in model calibration. We developed a multi-objective optimization procedure to calibrate the National Weather Service (NWS) Research Distributed Hydrological Model (RDHM), using the Nondominant Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) with expert knowledge of the model parameter interrelationships one objective function. The multi-objective algorithm enables us to obtain diverse parameter sets that are equally acceptable with respect to the objective functions and to choose one from the pool of the parameter sets during a subsequent regionalization step. Although all Pareto solutions are non-inferior, we exclude some of the parameter sets that show extremely values for any of the objective functions to expedite the selection process. We use an apriori model parameter set derived from the physical properties of the watershed (Koren et al., 2000) to assess the similarity for a given parameter across basins. Each parameter is assigned a weight based on its assumed similarity, such that parameters that are similar across basins are given higher weights. The parameter weights are useful to compute a closeness measure between Pareto sets of nearby basins. The regionalization approach chooses the Pareto parameter sets that minimize the closeness measure of the basin being regionalized. The presentation will describe the results of applying the regionalization approach to a set of pilot basins in the Upper Colorado basin as part of a NASA-funded project.

Integrated numerical modeling for basin-wide water management: The case of the Rattlesnake Creek basin in south-central Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sophocleous, M.A.; Koelliker, J.K.; Govindaraju, R.S.; Birdie, T.; Ramireddygari, S.R.; Perkins, S.P.

1999-01-01

The objective of this article is to develop and implement a comprehensive computer model that is capable of simulating the surface-water, ground-water, and stream-aquifer interactions on a continuous basis for the Rattlesnake Creek basin in south-central Kansas. The model is to be used as a tool for evaluating long-term water-management strategies. The agriculturally-based watershed model SWAT and the ground-water model MODFLOW with stream-aquifer interaction routines, suitably modified, were linked into a comprehensive basin model known as SWATMOD. The hydrologic response unit concept was implemented to overcome the quasi-lumped nature of SWAT and represent the heterogeneity within each subbasin of the basin model. A graphical user-interface and a decision support system were also developed to evaluate scenarios involving manipulation of water fights and agricultural land uses on stream-aquifer system response. An extensive sensitivity analysis on model parameters was conducted, and model limitations and parameter uncertainties were emphasized. A combination of trial-and-error and inverse modeling techniques were employed to calibrate the model against multiple calibration targets of measured ground-water levels, streamflows, and reported irrigation amounts. The split-sample technique was employed for corroborating the calibrated model. The model was run for a 40 y historical simulation period, and a 40 y prediction period. A number of hypothetical management scenarios involving reductions and variations in withdrawal rates and patterns were simulated. The SWATMOD model was developed as a hydrologically rational low-flow model for analyzing, in a user-friendly manner, the conditions in the basin when there is a shortage of water.

Use of Regional Climate Model Output for Hydrologic Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, L. E.; Clark, M. P.; Wilby, R. L.; Gutowski, W. J.; Leavesley, G. H.; Pan, Z.; Arritt, R. W.; Takle, E. S.

2001-12-01

Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from a Regional Climate Model (RegCM2) were used as input to a distributed hydrologic model for a rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango, Colorado; East Fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada; and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). For comparison purposes, spatially averaged daily data sets of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature were developed from measured data. These datasets included precipitation and temperature data for all stations that are located within the area of the RegCM2 model output used for each basin, but excluded station data used to calibrate the hydrologic model. Both the RegCM2 output and station data capture the gross aspects of the seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature. However, in all four basins, the RegCM2- and station-based simulations of runoff show little skill on a daily basis (Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) values ranging from 0.05-0.37 for RegCM2 and -0.08-0.65 for station). When the precipitation and temperature biases are corrected in the RegCM2 output and station data sets (Bias-RegCM2 and Bias-station, respectively) the accuracy of the daily runoff simulations improve dramatically for the snowmelt-dominated basins. In the rainfall-dominated basin, runoff simulations based on the Bias-RegCM2 output show no skill (NS value of 0.09) whereas Bias-All simulated runoff improves (NS value improved from -0.08 to 0.72). These results indicate that the resolution of the RegCM2 output is appropriate for basin-scale modeling, but RegCM2 model output does not contain the day-to-day variability needed for basin-scale modeling in rainfall-dominated basins. Future work is warranted to identify the causes for systematic biases in RegCM2 simulations, develop methods to remove the biases, and improve RegCM2 simulations of daily variability in local climate.

Alternative methods to determine headwater benefits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bao, Y.S.; Perlack, R.D.; Sale, M.J.

1997-11-10

In 1992, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) began using a Flow Duration Analysis (FDA) methodology to assess headwater benefits in river basins where use of the Headwater Benefits Energy Gains (HWBEG) model may not result in significant improvements in modeling accuracy. The purpose of this study is to validate the accuracy and appropriateness of the FDA method for determining energy gains in less complex basins. This report presents the results of Oak Ridge National Laboratory`s (ORNL`s) validation of the FDA method. The validation is based on a comparison of energy gains using the FDA method with energy gains calculatedmore » using the MWBEG model. Comparisons of energy gains are made on a daily and monthly basis for a complex river basin (the Alabama River Basin) and a basin that is considered relatively simple hydrologically (the Stanislaus River Basin). In addition to validating the FDA method, ORNL was asked to suggest refinements and improvements to the FDA method. Refinements and improvements to the FDA method were carried out using the James River Basin as a test case.« less

A thick lens of fresh groundwater in the southern Lihue Basin, Kauai, Hawaii, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Izuka, S.K.; Gingerich, S.B.

2003-01-01

A thick lens of fresh groundwater exists in a large region of low permeability in the southern Lihue Basin, Kauai, Hawaii, USA. The conventional conceptual model for groundwater occurence in Hawaii and other shield-volcano islands does not account for such a thick freshwater lens. In the conventional conceptual model, the lava-flow accumulations of which most shield volcanoes are built form large regions of relatively high permeability and thin freshwater lenses. In the southern Lihue Basin, basin-filling lavas and sediments form a large region of low regional hydraulic conductivity, which, in the moist climate of the basin, is saturated nearly to the land surface and water tables are hundreds of meters above sea level within a few kilometers from the coast. Such high water levels in shield-volcano islands were previously thought to exist only under perched or dike-impounded conditions, but in the southern Lihue Basin, high water levels exist in an apparently dike-free, fully saturated aquifer. A new conceptual model of groundwater occurrence in shield-volcano islands is needed to explain conditions in the southern Lihue Basin.

Impacts of Recent Wetting on Snow Processes and Runoff Generation in a Terminal Lake Basin, Devils Lake, North Dakota.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmood, T. H.; Van Hoy, D.

2016-12-01

The Devils Lake Basin, only terminal lake basin in North America, drains to a terminal lake called Devils Lake. Terminal lakes are susceptible to climate and land use changes as their water levels fluctuate to these changes. The streamflow from the headwater catchments of the Devils Lake basin exerts a strong control on the water level of the lake. Since, the mid-1980s, the Devils Lake Basin as well as other basins in the northern Great Plains have faced a large and abrupt surge in precipitation regime resulting in a series of wetter climatic condition and flooding around the Devils Lake area. Nevertheless, the impacts of the recent wetting on snow processes such as snow accumulations, blowing snow transport, in-transit sublimation, frozen soil infiltration and snowmelt runoff generations in a headwater catchment of the Devils Lake basin are poorly understood. In this study, I utilize a physically-based, distributed cold regions hydrological model to simulate the hydrological responses in the Mauvais Coulee basin that drains to Devils Lake. The Mauvais Coulee basin ( 1072 km2), located in the north-central North Dakota, is set in a gently rolling landscape with low relief ( 220 m) and an average elevation of 500 m. Major land covers are forest areas in turtle mountains ( 10%) and crops ( 86%), with wheat ( 25%) and canola ( 20%) as the major crops. The model set up includes ten sub-basins, each of which is divided into several hydrological response units (HRUs): riparian forest, river channel, reservoir, wheat, canola, other crops, and marsh. The model is parameterized using local and regional measurements and the findings from previous scientific studies. The model is evaluated against streamflow observations at the Mauvais Coulee gauge (USGS) during 1994-2013 periods using multiple performance criteria. Finally, the impacts of recent increases in precipitation on hydrologic responses are investigated using modeled hydrologic processes.

Analog modeling and kinematic restoration of inverted hangingwall synclinal basins developed above syn-kinematic salt: Application to the Lusitanian and Parentis basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roma, Maria; Vidal-Royo, Oskar; McClay, Ken; Ferrer, Oriol; Muñoz, Josep Anton

2017-04-01

The formation of hagingwall syncline basins is basically constrained by the geometry of the basement-involved fault, but also by salt distribution . The formation of such basins is common around the Iberian Peninsula (e.g. Lusitanian, Parentis, Basque-Cantabian, Cameros and Organyà basins) where Upper Triassic (Keuper) salt governed their polyphasic Mesozoic extension and their subsequent Alpine inversion. In this scenario, a precise interpretation of the sub-salt faults geometry and a reconstruction of the initial salt thickness are key to understand the kinematic evolution of such basins. Using an experimental approach (sandbox models) and these Mesozoic basins as natural analogues, the aim of this work is to: 1) investigate the main parameters that controlled the formation and evolution of hagingwall syncline basins analyzing the role of syn-kinematic salt during extension and subsequent inversion; and 2) quantify the deformation and salt mobilization based on restoration of analog model cross sections. The experimental results demonstrate that premature welds are developed by salt deflation with consequent upward propagation of the basal fault in salt-bearing rift systems with a large amount of extension,. In contrast, thicker salt inhibits the upward fault propagation, which results into a further salt migration and development of a hagingwall syncline basins flanked by salt walls. The inherited extensional architecture as well as salt continuity dramatically controlled subsequent inversion. Shortening initially produced the folding and the uplift of the synclinal basins. Minor reverse faults form as a consequence of overtightening of welded diapir stems. However, no trace of reverse faulting is found around diapirs stems, as ductile unit is still available for extrusion, squeezing and accommodation of shortening. Restoration of the sandbox models has demonstrated that this is a powerful tool to unravel the complex structures in the models and this may similarly be applied to the seismic interpretation of the natural complex salt structures.

Observed and simulated ground motions in the San Bernardino basin region for the Hector Mine, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, R.W.; Wald, D.J.

2004-01-01

During the MW 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake, peak ground velocities recorded at sites in the central San Bernardino basin region were up to 2 times larger and had significantly longer durations of strong shaking than sites just outside the basin. To better understand the effects of 3D structure on the long-period ground-motion response in this region, we have performed finite-difference simulations for this earthquake. The simulations are numerically accurate for periods of 2 sec and longer and incorporate the detailed spatial and temporal heterogeneity of source rupture, as well as complex 3D basin structure. Here, we analyze three models of the San Bernardino basin: model A (with structural constraints from gravity and seismic reflection data), model F (water well and seismic refraction data), and the Southern California Earthquake Center version 3 model (hydrologic and seismic refraction data). Models A and F are characterized by a gradual increase in sediment thickness toward the south with an abrupt step-up in the basement surface across the San Jacinto fault. The basin structure in the SCEC version 3 model has a nearly uniform sediment thickness of 1 km with little basement topography along the San Jacinto fault. In models A and F, we impose a layered velocity structure within the sediments based on the seismic refraction data and an assumed depth-dependent Vp/Vs ratio. Sediment velocities within the SCEC version 3 model are given by a smoothly varying rule-based function that is calibrated to the seismic refraction measurements. Due to computational limitations, the minimum shear-wave velocity is fixed at 600 m/sec in all of the models. Ground-motion simulations for both models A and F provide a reasonably good match to the amplitude and waveform characteristics of the recorded motions. In these models, surface waves are generated as energy enters the basin through the gradually sloping northern margin. Due to the basement step along the San Jacinto fault, the surface wave energy is confined to the region north of this structure, consistent with the observations. The SCEC version 3 model, lacking the basin geometry complexity present in the other two models, fails to provide a satisfactory match to the characteristics of the observed motions. Our study demonstrates the importance of using detailed and accurate basin geometry for predicting ground motions and also highlights the utility of integrating geological, geophysical, and seismological observations in the development and validation of 3D velocity models.

Computer model of Raritan River Basin water-supply system in central New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunne, Paul; Tasker, Gary D.

1996-01-01

This report describes a computer model of the Raritan River Basin water-supply system in central New Jersey. The computer model provides a technical basis for evaluating the effects of alternative patterns of operation of the Raritan River Basin water-supply system during extended periods of below-average precipitation. The computer model is a continuity-accounting model consisting of a series of interconnected nodes. At each node, the inflow volume, outflow volume, and change in storage are determined and recorded for each month. The model runs with a given set of operating rules and water-use requirements including releases, pumpages, and diversions. The model can be used to assess the hypothetical performance of the Raritan River Basin water- supply system in past years under alternative sets of operating rules. It also can be used to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes, such as the depletion of reservoir contents below a specified threshold or of streamflows below statutory minimum passing flows, for a period of up to 12 months. The model was constructed on the basis of current reservoir capacities and the natural, unregulated monthly runoff values recorded at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow- gaging stations in the basin.

Using a New Crustal Thickness Model to Test Previous Candidate Lunar Basins and to Search for New Candidates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, H. M.; Frey, H. V.

2012-01-01

A new crustal thickness model was used to test the viability of 110 candidate large lunar basins previously identified using older topographic and crustal thickness data as well as photogeologic data. The new model was also used to search for new candidate lunar basins greater than 300 km in diameter. We eliminated 11 of 27 candidates previously identified in the older crustal thickness model, and found strong evidence for at least 8 new candidates.

Modeling and management of water in the Klamath River Basin: overcoming politics and conflicts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flug, Marshall; Scott, John F.; Abt, Steven R.; Young-Pezeshk, Jayne; Watson, Chester C.

1998-01-01

The network flow model MODSIM, which was designed as a water quantity mass balance model for evaluating and selecting water management alternatives, has been applied to the Klamath River basin. A background of conflicting issues in the basin is presented. The complexity of water quantity model development, while satisfying the many stakeholders and involved special interest groups is discussed, as well as the efforts taken to have the technical model accepted and used, and overcome stakeholder criticism, skepticism, and mistrust of the government.

Thermally-driven subsidence of large platformal basins: linking growth of the lithosphere subsidence patterns on the surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holt, P.; Allen, M. B.; Van Hunen, J.

2012-04-01

A large number of areas which have experienced platformal subsidence during the Phanerozoic are located upon regions of juvenile accretionary crust. These include the Palaeozoic basins of North Africa, the Paraná and Parnaíba basins in South America, the Cape-Karoo basin in South Africa, the Mesozoic Scythian and Turan platforms in Central Asia and the Eastern Australian basins. We hypothesise that the juvenile accretionary crust is initially underlain by a thin mantle lithosphere. This is most likely inherited from the island arcs, accretionary prisms and microcontinents that collided to form this juvenile crust, although it could also be due to lithospheric delamination as a result of the collision. Once the crust has stabilised the lithosphere begins to cool and thicken, which drives the observed subsidence. To test this we constructed a simple 1D forward finite difference model which calculates heat conduction through a column of crust, mantle lithosphere and upper mantle as it cools. The model then isostatically calculates the water loaded subsidence produced by this process. This allows us to use subsidence curves calculated from the sedimentary record preserved within the basin to test whether the basins could be forming in response to growth of the lithosphere. The results from the model showed that the subsidence produced was most sensitive to variations in crustal thickness and plate thickness (final lithospheric thickness). The modelled subsidence curves were then compared to subsidence curves acquired by backstripping the sediments within the basins mentioned above. The parameters were varied iteratively to find the best fit between the modelled and the observed subsidence. This produced good fits and also provided another method to validate the model results. The crustal thickness and final lithospheric thickness from the models were then compared to measurements of these parameters from other sources such as deep seismic lines and tomographic imaging of the Low Velocity Zone. These generally agreed well with the values used in the model and were used to further constrain the model. However, subsidence of thin lithosphere is not necessarily limited to unmodified accretionary crust, as described above. For instance the subsidence of the West Siberian Basin, outside the rift system, is similar to the platformal basins mentioned above except that there is a delay of 50 - 90 Myrs between the rifting (and associated eruption of the Siberian flood basalts), and the onset of sedimentation. We used a variant of our model that incorporated an anomalously hot layer beneath a thinned lithosphere to represent a cooling mantle plume head. This produced a good match to the subsidence patterns from the West Siberian Basin. This coupling of deep processes with surface processes allows us to further understand how the basins form, but inversely the sedimentary record could be used to investigate the growth of the lithosphere and provide a prediction of present day lithospheric thickness independent of seismic methods.

Prediction method of sediment discharge from forested basin

Treesearch

Kazutoki Abe; Ushio Kurokawa; Robert R. Ziemer

2000-01-01

An estimation model for sediment discharge from a forested basin using Universal Soil Loss Equation and delivery ratio was developed. Study basins are North fork and South fork in Caspar Creek, north California, where Forest Service, USDA has been using water and sediment discharge from both basins since 1962. The whole basin is covered with the forest, mainly...

Application of a snowmelt-runoff model using LANDSAT data. [Dinwoody Creek Basin, Wyoming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

The snowmelt-runoff model developed for two small central European watersheds simulate daily streamflow on the 228 sq km Dinwoody Creek basin in Wyoming, using snowcover extent for LANDSAT and conventionally measured temperature and precipitation. For the six-month snowmelt seasons of 1976 and 1974, the simulated seasonal runoff volumes were within 5 and 1%, respectively, of the measured runoff. Also the daily fluctuations of discharge were simulated to a high degree by the model. Thus far the limiting basin size for applying the model has not been reached, and improvements can be expected if the hydrometeorological data can be obtained from a station inside the basin. LANDSAT provides an efficient way to obtain the critical snowcover input parameter required by the model.

A new eco-hydrological distributed model for the predictions of the climate change impact on water resources of Mediterranean water-limited basins: the Mulargia basin case study in Sardinia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarigu, Alessio; Montaldo, Nicola

2017-04-01

In the last three decades, climate change and human activities increased desertification process in Mediterranean regions, with dramatic consequences for agriculture and water availability. For instance in the main reservoir systems in Sardinia the average annual runoff in the latter part of the 20th century decreased of more than 50% compared with the previous period, while the precipitation over the Sardinia basin has decreased, but not at such a drastic rate as the discharge, with an high precipitation elasticity to streamflow, highlighting the key role of the rainfall seasonality on runoff production. IPCC climate change scenarios predict a further decrease of winter rainfall, which is the key term for runoff production in these typical Mediterranean climate basins, and air temperature increase, which can potentially impact on evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff. Only the use of an accurate ecohydrological physically based distributed model allow to well predict the impact of the climate change scenarios on the basin water resources. A new eco-hydrological model is developed that couples a distributed hydrological model of and a vegetation dynamic model (VDM). The hydrological model estimates the soil water balance of each basin cell using the force-restore method, the Philips model for infiltration estimate and the Penman-Monteith equation for evapotranspiration estimate. The VDM evaluates the changes in biomass over time for each cell and provides the leaf area index (LAI), which is then used by the hydrological model for evapotranspiration and rainfall interception estimates. Case study is the Mulargia basin (Sardinia, basin area of about 70 km2), where an extended field campaign started from 2003, with rain and discharge data observed at the basin outlet, periodic field measurements of soil moisture and LAI all over the basin, and evapotraspiration estimates using an eddy correlation based tower. The Mulargia basin case study is a very interesting laboratory of Mediterranean basins, thanks to its typical Mediterranean climate, its typical physiografic characteristics, its low human activities and influences and its attractive hydrologic database. The model has been successfully and deeply calibrated for the 2003 and validated for the 2004-2005 period, using both field data and satellite Modis data. Three future climate change scenarios has been generated using a stochastic model (Richardson, 1991), opportunely adapted for accounting the future changes of climate conditions. The scenarios (A1-A1B-A2) assume that in the next century there will be a drastic reduction of precipitation (with maximum reduction of 30% in A2) and that will continue the warming process. A reduction of soil moisture (about 40%) is predicted, especially during winter month and also the LAI will drastically decrease (more than 50% for woody vegetation and 75% for grass especially during the spring). Runoff will decrease even more (up to 70%) during the winter season, which is the key season for the water resource management and planning of these Mediterranean basins. These results anticipate a dramatic reduction of water resources availability, a change of vegetation species and ecosystems, increasing the desertification process in this typical Mediterranean area.

Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated due to the precipitation mea- surement errors. Even though the explicit modeling of wetlands and lakes leads to a much improved modeling of both the vertical water balance and the lateral transport of water, not enough information is included in WGHM to accurately capture the hy- drology of these water bodies. Certainly, the reliability of model results is highest at the locations at which WGHM was calibrated. The validation indicates that reliability for cells inside calibrated basins is satisfactory if the basin is relatively homogeneous. Analyses of the few available stations outside of calibrated basins indicate a reason- ably high model reliability, particularly in humid regions.

Climatic controls on arid continental basin margin systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gough, Amy; Clarke, Stuart; Richards, Philip; Milodowski, Antoni

2016-04-01

Alluvial fans are both dominant and long-lived within continental basin margin systems. As a result, they commonly interact with a variety of depositional systems that exist at different times in the distal extent of the basin as the basin evolves. The deposits of the distal basin often cycle between those with the potential to act as good aquifers and those with the potential to act as good aquitards. The interactions between the distal deposits and the basin margin fans can have a significant impact upon basin-scale fluid flow. The fans themselves are commonly considered as relatively homogeneous, but their sedimentology is controlled by a variety of factors, including: 1) differing depositional mechanisms; 2) localised autocyclic controls; 3) geometrical and temporal interactions with deposits of the basin centre; and, 4) long-term allocyclic climatic variations. This work examines the basin margin systems of the Cutler Group sediments of the Paradox Basin, western U.S.A and presents generalised facies models for the Cutler Group alluvial fans as well as for the zone of interaction between these fans and the contemporaneous environments in the basin centre, at a variety of scales. Small-scale controls on deposition include climate, tectonics, base level and sediment supply. It has been ascertained that long-term climatic alterations were the main control on these depositional systems. Models have been constructed to highlight how both long-term and short-term alterations in the climatic regime can affect the sedimentation in the basin. These models can be applied to better understand similar, but poorly exposed, alluvial fan deposits. The alluvial fans of the Brockram Facies, northern England form part of a once-proposed site for low-level nuclear waste decommissioning. As such, it is important to understand the sedimentology, three-dimensional geometry, and the proposed connectivity of the deposits from the perspective of basin-scale fluid flow. The developed models suggest that the deposits of the Brockram alluvial fans have the potential to contain numerous preferential flow zones. Where these flow zones are adjacent to the unique deposits of the zone of interaction it affects basin-scale fluid flow by: 1) interconnecting decent reservoirs in the distal extent of the basin; 2) creating flow pathways away from these reservoirs; 3) introducing secondary baffles into the system; and, 4) creating a bypass to charge these distal reservoirs.

Crustal Thickness and Magnetization beneath Crisium and Moscoviense Lunar Impact Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesnel, Y.

2016-12-01

The recent NASA GRAIL mission allowed to derive a high-resolution model of the Moon's crustal thickness. It revealed that the Mare Crisium and Moscoviense large impact basins have the thinnest (< 7-8 km) crust of the Moon. On the other hand, significative magnetic field anomalies were measured over these basins by Lunar Prospector and Kaguya magnetometers. The Crisium lunar impact basin shows two localized intense ( 10 nT at 30 km of altitude) magnetic field anomalies located nearby its North and South borders, while Moscoviense shows a relatively-intense ( 4-5 nT at 30 km) central magnetic field anomaly. In details, these two anomalies are exactly located where the thinnest (<1-3 km) crust within the basins is predicted by the crustal thickness models. In this study we investigate this apparent anti-correlation by modeling the sources of these potential field data using several forward approaches in 2D and 3D. The parameters of the crustal source models are constrained by density and magnetization measurements on APOLLO samples, and by standard values for the lunar mantle and crust. Several possible models will be shown for the two basins. Preliminary results suggest that, beneath the thin Mare basalt layer seen at the floor of both basins, a magnetized layer with laterally-varying thickness is required. This layer may correspond to an impact melt sheet. We here exclude the hypothesis that a part of the lunar upper mantle could be magnetized beneath these basins (perhaps due to post-impact processes?), largely reducing the range of possible depths for the magnetic sources.

Constraining uncertainties in water supply reliability in a tropical data scarce basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Rodriguez, Erasmo; de Fraiture, Charlotte

2015-04-01

Assessing the water supply reliability in river basins is essential for adequate planning and development of irrigated agriculture and urban water systems. In many cases hydrological models are applied to determine the surface water availability in river basins. However, surface water availability and variability is often not appropriately quantified due to epistemic uncertainties, leading to water supply insecurity. The objective of this research is to determine the water supply reliability in order to support planning and development of irrigated agriculture in a tropical, data scarce environment. The approach proposed uses a simple hydrological model, but explicitly includes model parameter uncertainty. A transboundary river basin in the tropical region of Colombia and Venezuela with an approximately area of 2100 km² was selected as a case study. The Budyko hydrological framework was extended to consider climatological input variability and model parameter uncertainty, and through this the surface water reliability to satisfy the irrigation and urban demand was estimated. This provides a spatial estimate of the water supply reliability across the basin. For the middle basin the reliability was found to be less than 30% for most of the months when the water is extracted from an upstream source. Conversely, the monthly water supply reliability was high (r>98%) in the lower basin irrigation areas when water was withdrawn from a source located further downstream. Including model parameter uncertainty provides a complete estimate of the water supply reliability, but that estimate is influenced by the uncertainty in the model. Reducing the uncertainty in the model through improved data and perhaps improved model structure will improve the estimate of the water supply reliability allowing better planning of irrigated agriculture and dependable water allocation decisions.

Comparison and evaluation of model structures for the simulation of pollution fluxes in a tile-drained river basin.

PubMed

Hoang, Linh; van Griensven, Ann; van der Keur, Peter; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Troldborg, Lars; Nilsson, Bertel; Mynett, Arthur

2014-01-01

The European Union Water Framework Directive requires an integrated pollution prevention plan at the river basin level. Hydrological river basin modeling tools are therefore promising tools to support the quantification of pollution originating from different sources. A limited number of studies have reported on the use of these models to predict pollution fluxes in tile-drained basins. This study focused on evaluating different modeling tools and modeling concepts to quantify the flow and nitrate fluxes in the Odense River basin using DAISY-MIKE SHE (DMS) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The results show that SWAT accurately predicted flow for daily and monthly time steps, whereas simulation of nitrate fluxes were more accurate at a monthly time step. In comparison to the DMS model, which takes into account the uncertainty of soil hydraulic and slurry parameters, SWAT results for flow and nitrate fit well within the range of DMS simulated values in high-flow periods but were slightly lower in low-flow periods. Despite the similarities of simulated flow and nitrate fluxes at the basin outlet, the two models predicted very different separations into flow components (overland flow, tile drainage, and groundwater flow) as well as nitrate fluxes from flow components. It was concluded that the assessment on which the model provides a better representation of the reality in terms of flow paths should not only be based on standard statistical metrics for the entire river basin but also needs to consider additional data, field experiments, and opinions of field experts. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

The Effectiveness of Cattlemans Detention Basin, South Lake Tahoe, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, Jena M.

2006-01-01

Lake Tahoe (Nevada-California) has been designated as an 'outstanding national water resource' by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in part, for its exceptional clarity. Water clarity in Lake Tahoe, however, has been declining at a rate of about one foot per year for more than 35 years. To decrease the amount of sediment and nutrients delivered to the lake by way of alpine streams, wetlands and stormwater detention basins have been installed at several locations around the lake. Although an improvement in stormwater and snowmelt runoff quality has been measured, the effectiveness of the detention basins for increasing the clarity of Lake Tahoe needs further study. It is possible that poor ground-water quality conditions exist beneath the detention basins and adjacent wetlands and that the presence of the basins has altered ground-water flow paths to nearby streams. A hydrogeochemical and ground-water flow modeling study was done at Cattlemans detention basin, situated adjacent to Cold Creek, a tributary to Lake Tahoe, to determine whether the focusing of storm and snowmelt runoff into a confined area has (1) modified the ground-water flow system beneath the detention basin and affected transport of sediment and nutrients to nearby streams and (2) provided an increased source of solutes which has changed the distribution of nutrients and affected nutrient transport rates beneath the basin. Results of slug tests and ground-water flow modeling suggest that ground water flows unrestricted northwest across the detention basin through the meadow. The modeling also indicates that seasonal flow patterns and flow direction remain similar from year to year under transient conditions. Model results imply that about 34 percent (0.004 ft3/s) of the total ground water within the model area originates from the detention basin. Of the 0.004 ft3/s, about 45 percent discharges to Cold Creek within the modeled area downstream of the detention basin. The remaining 55 percent of ground water is either consumed by evapotranspiration, is discharged to Cold Creek outside the modeled area downstream of the detention basin, or is discharged directly to Lake Tahoe. Of the 45 percent discharging to Cold Creek, about 9 percent enters directly downstream of the detention basin and 36 percent enters further downstream. Geochemical and microbial data suggest that a seasonal variation of chemical constituents and microbe population size is present at most wells. The geochemical data also indicate that construction of Cattlemans detention basin has not substantially changed the composition of the ground water in the area. High concentrations of ammonia, iron, and dissolved organic carbon, low concentrations of sulfate and nitrate, and large populations of sulfate-reducing microbes imply that the major geochemical process controlling nutrient concentrations beneath the detention basin is sulfate reduction. High concentrations of total nitrogen indicate that oxidation of organic carbon is a second important geochemical process occurring beneath the basin. The influx of surface runoff during spring 2002 apparently provided sufficient oxidized organic carbon to produce iron-reducing conditions and an increase in reduced iron, sulfate, and iron-reducing microorganisms. The increase in recharge of oxygenated water to the ground water system beneath the basin in future intervals of increased recharge may eventually redistribute nutrients and speed up transport of dissolved nutrients from the ground water system to Cold Creek.

Seismic amplification within the Seattle Basin, Washington State: Insights from SHIPS seismic tomography experiments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snelson, C.M.; Brocher, T.M.; Miller, K.C.; Pratt, T.L.; Trehu, A.M.

2007-01-01

Recent observations indicate that the Seattle sedimentary basin, underlying Seattle and other urban centers in the Puget Lowland, Washington, amplifies long-period (1-5 sec) weak ground motions by factors of 10 or more. We computed east-trending P- and S-wave velocity models across the Seattle basin from Seismic Hazard Investigations of Puget Sound (SHIPS) experiments to better characterize the seismic hazard the basin poses. The 3D tomographic models, which resolve features to a depth of 10 km, for the first time define the P- and S-wave velocity structure of the eastern end of the basin. The basin, which contains sedimentary rocks of Eocene to Holocene, is broadly symmetric in east-west section and reaches a maximum thickness of 6 km along our profile beneath north Seattle. A comparison of our velocity model with coincident amplification curves for weak ground motions produced by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake suggests that the distribution of Quaternary deposits and reduced velocity gradients in the upper part of the basement east of Seattle have significance in forecasting variations in seismic-wave amplification across the basin. Specifically, eastward increases in the amplification of 0.2- to 5-Hz energy correlate with locally thicker unconsolidated deposits and a change from Crescent Formation basement to pre-Tertiary Cascadia basement. These models define the extent of the Seattle basin, the Seattle fault, and the geometry of the basement contact, giving insight into the tectonic evolution of the Seattle basin and its influence on ground shaking.

Hydrogeologic framework of the middle San Pedro watershed, southeastern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dickinson, Jesse; Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Pool, D.R.; Cordova, Jeffrey T.; Parker, John T.; Macy, J.P.; Thomas, Blakemore

2010-01-01

Water managers in rural Arizona are under increasing pressure to provide sustainable supplies of water despite rapid population growth and demands for environmental protection. This report describes the results of a study of the hydrogeologic framework of the middle San Pedro watershed. The components of this report include: (1) a description of the geologic setting and depositional history of basin fill sediments that form the primary aquifer system, (2) updated bedrock altitudes underlying basin fill sediments calculated using a subsurface density model of gravity data, (3) delineation of hydrogeologic units in the basin fill using lithologic descriptions in driller's logs and models of airborne electrical resistivity data, (4) a digital three-dimensional (3D) hydrogeologic framework model (HFM) that represents spatial extents and thicknesses of the hydrogeologic units (HGUs), and (5) description of the hydrologic properties of the HGUs. The lithologic interpretations based on geophysical data and unit thickness and extent of the HGUs included in the HFM define potential configurations of hydraulic zones and parameters that can be incorporated in groundwater-flow models. The hydrogeologic framework comprises permeable and impermeable stratigraphic units: (1) bedrock, (2) sedimentary rocks predating basin-and-range deformation, (3) lower basin fill, (4) upper basin fill, and (5) stream alluvium. The bedrock unit includes Proterozoic to Cretaceous crystalline rocks, sedimentary rocks, and limestone that are relatively impermeable and poor aquifers, except for saturated portions of limestone. The pre-basin-and-range sediments underlie the lower basin fill but are relatively impermeable owing to cementation. However, they may be an important water-bearing unit where fractured. Alluvium of the lower basin fill, the main water-bearing unit, was deposited in the structural trough between the uplifted ridges of bedrock and (or) pre-basin-and-range sediments. Alluvium of the upper basin fill may be more permeable than the lower basin fill, but it is generally unsaturated in the study area. The lower basin fill stratigraphic unit was delineated into three HGUs on the basis of lithologic descriptions in driller?s logs and one-dimensional (1D) electrical models of airborne transient electromagnetic (TEM) surveys. The interbedded lower basin fill (ILBF) HGU represents an upper sequence having resistivity values between 5 and 40 ohm-m identified as interbedded sand, gravel, and clay in driller?s logs. Below this upper sequence, fine-grained lower basin fill (FLBF) HGU represents a thick silt and clay sequence having resistivity values between 5 and 20 ohm-m. Within the coarse-grained lower basin fill (CLBF) HGU, which underlies the silt and clay of the FLBF, the resistivity values on logs and 1D models increase to several hundred ohm-m and are highly variable within sand and gravel layers. These sequences match distinct resistivity and lithologic layers identified by geophysical logs in the adjacent Sierra Vista subwatershed, suggesting that these sequences are laterally continuous within both the Benson and Sierra Vista subwatersheds in the Upper San Pedro Basin. A subsurface density model based on gravity data was constructed to identify the top of bedrock and structures that may affect regional groundwater flow. The subsurface density model contains six layers having uniform density values, which are assigned on the basis of geophysical logs. The density values for the layers range between 1.65 g/cm3 for unsaturated sediments near the land surface and 2.67 g/cm3 for bedrock. Major features include three subbasins within the study area, the Huachuca City subbasin, the Tombstone subbasin, and the Benson subbasin, which have no expression in surface topography or lithology. Bedrock altitudes from the subsurface density model defined top altitudes of the bedrock HGU. The HFM includes the following HGUs in ascending stratigr

A MATLAB®-based program for 3D visualization of stratigraphic setting and subsidence evolution of sedimentary basins: example application to the Vienna Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Eun Young; Novotny, Johannes; Wagreich, Michael

2015-04-01

In recent years, 3D visualization of sedimentary basins has become increasingly popular. Stratigraphic and structural mapping is highly important to understand the internal setting of sedimentary basins. And subsequent subsidence analysis provides significant insights for basin evolution. This study focused on developing a simple and user-friendly program which allows geologists to analyze and model sedimentary basin data. The developed program is aimed at stratigraphic and subsidence modelling of sedimentary basins from wells or stratigraphic profile data. This program is mainly based on two numerical methods; surface interpolation and subsidence analysis. For surface visualization four different interpolation techniques (Linear, Natural, Cubic Spline, and Thin-Plate Spline) are provided in this program. The subsidence analysis consists of decompaction and backstripping techniques. The numerical methods are computed in MATLAB® which is a multi-paradigm numerical computing environment used extensively in academic, research, and industrial fields. This program consists of five main processing steps; 1) setup (study area and stratigraphic units), 2) loading of well data, 3) stratigraphic modelling (depth distribution and isopach plots), 4) subsidence parameter input, and 5) subsidence modelling (subsided depth and subsidence rate plots). The graphical user interface intuitively guides users through all process stages and provides tools to analyse and export the results. Interpolation and subsidence results are cached to minimize redundant computations and improve the interactivity of the program. All 2D and 3D visualizations are created by using MATLAB plotting functions, which enables users to fine-tune the visualization results using the full range of available plot options in MATLAB. All functions of this program are illustrated with a case study of Miocene sediments in the Vienna Basin. The basin is an ideal place to test this program, because sufficient data is available to analyse and model stratigraphic setting and subsidence evolution of the basin. The study area covers approximately 1200 km2 including 110 data points in the central part of the Vienna Basin.

Assessing the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on Haihe River basin, eastern China: a coupled model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jun; Wang, Qiang; Zhang, Xiang; Wang, Rui; She, Dunxian

2018-04-01

The modeling of changes in surface water and groundwater in the areas of inter-basin water diversion projects is quite difficult because surface water and groundwater models are run separately most of the time and the lack of sufficient data limits the application of complex surface-water/groundwater coupling models based on physical laws, especially for developing countries. In this study, a distributed surface-water and groundwater coupling model, named the distributed time variant gain model-groundwater model (DTVGM-GWM), was used to assess the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on a watershed hydrological cycle. The DTVGM-GWM model can reflect the interaction processes of surface water and groundwater at basin scale. The model was applied to the Haihe River Basin (HRB) in eastern China. The possible influences of climate change and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) on surface water and groundwater in the HRB were analyzed under various scenarios. The results showed that the newly constructed model DTVGM-GWM can reasonably simulate the surface and river runoff, and describe the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of groundwater level, groundwater storage and phreatic recharge. The prediction results under different scenarios showed a decline in annual groundwater exploitation and also runoff in the HRB, while an increase of groundwater storage and groundwater level after the SNWDP's operation. Additionally, as the project also addresses future scenarios, a slight increase is predicted in the actual evapotranspiration, soil water content and phreatic recharge. This study provides valuable insights for developing sustainable groundwater management options for the HRB.

Gravity Field of the Orientale Basin from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zuber, Maria T.; Smith, David E.; Neumann, Gregory A.; Goossens, Sander; Andrews-Hanna, Jeffrey C.; Head, James W.; Kiefer, Walter S.; Asmar, Sami W.; Konopliv, Alexander S.; Lemoine, Frank G.;

Continuous hydrologic simulation of runoff for the Middle Fork and South Fork of the Beargrass Creek basin in Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, G. Lynn; Downs, Aimee C.; Grace-Jarrett, Patricia A.

1998-01-01

The Hydrological Simulation Pro-gram-FORTRAN (HSPF) was applied to an urban drainage basin in Jefferson County, Ky to integrate the large amounts of information being collected on water quantity and quality into an analytical framework that could be used as a management and planning tool. Hydrologic response units were developed using geographic data and a K-means analysis to characterize important hydrologic and physical factors in the basin. The Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN Expert System (HSPEXP) was used to calibrate the model parameters for the Middle Fork Beargrass Creek Basin for 3 years (June 1, 1991, to May 31, 1994) of 5-minute streamflow and precipitation time series, and 3 years of hourly pan-evaporation time series. The calibrated model parameters were applied to the South Fork Beargrass Creek Basin for confirmation. The model confirmation results indicated that the model simulated the system within acceptable tolerances. The coefficient of determination and coefficient of model-fit efficiency between simulated and observed daily flows were 0.91 and 0.82, respectively, for model calibration and 0.88 and 0.77, respectively, for model confirmation. The model is most sensitive to estimates of the area of effective impervious land in the basin; the spatial distribution of rain-fall; and the lower-zone evapotranspiration, lower-zone nominal storage, and infiltration-capacity parameters during recession and low-flow periods. The error contribution from these sources varies with season and antecedent conditions.

Verification and Improvement of the Three-Dimensional Basin Velocity Structure Model in the Osaka Sedimentary Basin, Japan Using Interstation Green's Functions and H/V Spectral Ratios of Microtremors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Sekiguchi, H.; Somei, K.; Nishimura, T.; Miyakoshi, K.; Aoi, S.; Kunugi, T.

2012-12-01

The Osaka sedimentary basin is filled by the Plio-Pleistocene Osaka group, terrace deposits, and alluvium deposits with thickness of 1 to 2 km over the bedrock, and it is surrounded by active fault systems. The Uemachi active fault system underlies the Osaka urban area. In order to predict the strong ground motions for future events of the Uemachi fault and others, the precise basin velocity structure model is indispensable as well as the detailed source fault model. The velocity structure of the Osaka basin has been extensively investigated by using various techniques such as gravity anomaly measurements, reflection surveys, boring explorations, and microtremor measurements. Based on these surveys and ground motion simulations for observed events, the three-dimensional velocity structure models of the Osaka basin have been developed and improved for decades (e.g., Kagawa et al., 1993; Horikawa et al., 2003; Iwata et al., 2008; Iwaki and Iwata, 2011). Now we are trying to verify the velocity structure model of the Osaka basin and to improve it incorporating new data sets. We have conducted two kinds of observations in the Osaka basin. The first observation is continuous microtremor observation. We have temporarily installed three-component velocity sensors at 15 sites covering the Osaka basin to record microtremors continuously for more than one year. The seismic interferometry technique (e.g. Shapiro and Campillo, 2004) is applied to retrieve interstation Green's function for analyzing the wave propagation characteristics inside the sedimentary basin. Both Rayleigh- and Love-wave type signals are identified in 0.1-0.5 Hz from observed interstation Green's functions. The group velocities of Rayleigh and Love waves propagating between two stations are estimated from them using the multiple filter analysis method, and they are compared with the theoretical group-velocities of the model. For example, estimated Love-wave group velocity along a line inside the basin is as low as 350 m/s in 0.2-0.5 Hz. The second observation is a set of short-time (30~60 min) single-station microtremor observations to obtain H/V spectral ratios at sites. We observed microtremor at 100 strong motion stations of Osaka prefecture government, JMA, K-NET, KiK-net, and other institutes. The peak period of H/V ranges from about 1 to 7 s, and it depends on the bedrock depth at the observation site as previously pointed by Miyakoshi et al. (1997). Though the basin velocity model explains the characteristics of observed H/V spectral ratios at most sites, we found discrepancies between observed and predicted H/V peak periods at north part of Osaka bay area and hill area in southeastern part of the basin. By combining the observed constraints from the group velocities, waveform characteristics of interstation Green's functions, and H/V spectral ratios, we will improve the S-wave velocity structure model inside the Osaka basin.

Comparison of the Various Methodologies Used in Studying Runoff and Sediment Load in the Yellow River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, M., III; Liu, X.

2017-12-01

In the past 60 years, both the runoff and sediment load in the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends owing to the influences of human activities and climate change. Quantifying the impact of each factor (e.g. precipitation, sediment trapping dams, pasture, terrace, etc.) on the runoff and sediment load is among the key issues to guide the implement of water and soil conservation measures, and to predict the variation trends in the future. Hundreds of methods have been developed for studying the runoff and sediment load in the Yellow River Basin. Generally, these methods can be classified into empirical methods and physical-based models. The empirical methods, including hydrological method, soil and water conservation method, etc., are widely used in the Yellow River management engineering. These methods generally apply the statistical analyses like the regression analysis to build the empirical relationships between the main characteristic variables in a river basin. The elasticity method extensively used in the hydrological research can be classified into empirical method as it is mathematically deduced to be equivalent with the hydrological method. Physical-based models mainly include conceptual models and distributed models. The conceptual models are usually lumped models (e.g. SYMHD model, etc.) and can be regarded as transition of empirical models and distributed models. Seen from the publications that less studies have been conducted applying distributed models than empirical models as the simulation results of runoff and sediment load based on distributed models (e.g. the Digital Yellow Integrated Model, the Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model, etc.) were usually not so satisfied owing to the intensive human activities in the Yellow River Basin. Therefore, this study primarily summarizes the empirical models applied in the Yellow River Basin and theoretically analyzes the main causes for the significantly different results using different empirical researching methods. Besides, we put forward an assessment frame for the researching methods of the runoff and sediment load variations in the Yellow River Basin from the point of view of inputting data, model structure and result output. And the assessment frame was then applied in the Huangfuchuan River.

Modeling Surface Water Flow in the Atchafalaya Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, K.; Simard, M.

2017-12-01

While most of the Mississippi River Delta is sinking due to insufficient sediment supply and subsidence, the stable wetlands and the prograding delta systems in the Atchafalaya Basin provide a unique opportunity to study the constructive interactions between riverine and marine forcings and their impacts upon coastal morphology. To better understand the hydrodynamics in this region, we developed a numerical modeling system for the water flow through the river channel - deltas - wetlands networks in the Atchafalaya Basin. Determining spatially varying model parameters for a large area composed of such diverse land cover types poses a challenge to developing an accurate numerical model. For example, the bottom friction coefficient can not be measured directly and the available elevation maps for the wetlands in the basin are inaccurate. To overcome these obstacles, we developed the modeling system in three steps. Firstly, we modeled river bathymetry based on in situ sonar transects and developed a simplified 1D model for the Wax Lake Outlet using HEC-RAS. Secondly, we used a Bayesian approach to calibrate the model automatically and infer important unknown parameters such as riverbank elevation and bottom friction coefficient through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. We also estimated the wetland elevation based on the distribution of different vegetation species in the basin. Thirdly, with the lessons learnt from the 1D model, we developed a depth-averaged 2D model for the whole Atchafalaya Basin using Delft3D. After calibrations, the model successfully reproduced the water levels measured at five gauges in the Wax Lake Outlet and the modeled water surface profile along the channel agreed reasonably well with our LIDAR measurements. In addition, the model predicted a one-hour delay in tidal phase from the Wax Lake Delta to the upstream gauge. In summary, this project presents a procedure to initialize hydrology model parameters that integrates field measurements, existing knowledge and model sensitivities. The numerical model provides a powerful tool to understand the complex patterns of water flow and exchange in the rivers, tributaries, and wetlands of the Atchafalaya Basin.

Development and Application of a Simple Hydrogeomorphic Model for Headwater Catchments

EPA Science Inventory

We developed a catchment model based on a hydrogeomorphic concept that simulates discharge from channel-riparian complexes, zero-order basins (ZOB, basins ZB and FA), and hillslopes. Multitank models simulate ZOB and hillslope hydrological response, while kinematic wave models pr...

Post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek Fire near Hailey, central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skinner, Kenneth D.

2013-01-01

A preliminary hazard assessment was developed for debris-flow hazards in the 465 square-kilometer (115,000 acres) area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek fire near Hailey in central Idaho. The burn area covers all or part of six watersheds and selected basins draining to the Big Wood River and is at risk of substantial post-fire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the Intermountain Region in Western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence, potential volume of debris flows, and the combined debris-flow hazard ranking along the drainage network within the burn area and to estimate the same for analyzed drainage basins within the burn area. Input data for the empirical models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm (13 mm); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm (19 mm); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm (22 mm). Estimated debris-flow probabilities for drainage basins upstream of 130 selected basin outlets ranged from less than 1 to 78 percent with the probabilities increasing with each increase in storm magnitude. Probabilities were high in three of the six watersheds. For the 25-year storm, probabilities were greater than 60 percent for 11 basin outlets and ranged from 50 to 60 percent for an additional 12 basin outlets. Probability estimates for stream segments within the drainage network can vary within a basin. For the 25-year storm, probabilities for stream segments within 33 basins were higher than the basin outlet, emphasizing the importance of evaluating the drainage network as well as basin outlets. Estimated debris-flow volumes for the three modeled storms range from a minimal debris flow volume of 10 cubic meters [m3]) to greater than 100,000 m3. Estimated debris-flow volumes increased with basin size and distance downstream. For the 25-year storm, estimated debris-flow volumes were greater than 100,000 m3 for 4 basins and between 50,000 and 100,000 m3 for 10 basins. The debris-flow hazard rankings did not result in the highest hazard ranking of 5, indicating that none of the basins had a high probability of debris-flow occurrence and a high debris-flow volume estimate. The hazard ranking was 4 for one basin using the 10-year-recurrence storm model and for three basins using the 25-year-recurrence storm model. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where post-wildfire remediation efforts should take place within the 2- to 3-year period of increased erosional vulnerability.

System dynamics modeling of nitrogen removal in a stormwater infiltration basin with biosorption-activated media.

PubMed

Xuan, Zhemin; Chang, Ni-Bin; Wanielista, Martin P; Williams, Evan Shane

2013-07-01

Stormwater infiltration basins, one of the typical stormwater best management practices, are commonly constructed for surface water pollution control, flood mitigation, and groundwater restoration in rural or residential areas. These basins have soils with better infiltration capacity than the native soil; however, the ever-increasing contribution of nutrients to groundwater from stormwater due to urban expansion makes existing infiltration basins unable to meet groundwater quality criteria related to environmental sustainability and public health. This issue requires retrofitting current infiltration basins for flood control as well as nutrient control before the stormwater enters the groundwater. An existing stormwater infiltration basin in north-central Florida was selected, retrofitted, and monitored to identify subsurface physiochemical and biological processes during 2007-2010 to investigate nutrient control processes. This implementation in the nexus of contaminant hydrology and ecological engineering adopted amended soil layers packed with biosorption activated media (BAM; tire crumb, silt, clay, and sand) to perform nutrient removal in a partitioned forebay using a berm. This study presents an infiltration basin-nitrogen removal (IBNR) model, a system dynamics model that simulates nitrogen cycling in this BAM-based stormwater infiltration basin with respect to changing hydrologic conditions and varying dissolved nitrogen concentrations. Modeling outputs of IBNR indicate that denitrification is the biogeochemical indicator in the BAM layer that accounted for a loss of about one third of the total dissolved nitrogen mass input. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

BASINS Climate Assessment Tool Tutorials

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The BASINS Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) provides a flexible set of capabilities for exploring the potential effects of climate change on streamflow and water quality using different watershed models in BASINS.

16. YAZOO BACKWATER PUMPING STATION MODEL, YAZOO RIVER BASIN. MECHANICAL ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

16. YAZOO BACKWATER PUMPING STATION MODEL, YAZOO RIVER BASIN. MECHANICAL AND HYDRAULIC ENGINEERS EXAMINING MODEL PUMPS. - Waterways Experiment Station, Hydraulics Laboratory, Halls Ferry Road, 2 miles south of I-20, Vicksburg, Warren County, MS

SWAT Model Configuration, Calibration and Validation for Lake Champlain Basin

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to develop phosphorus loading estimates for sources in the Lake Champlain Basin. This document describes the model setup and parameterization, and presents calibration results.

Colorado River basin sensitivity to disturbance impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; Urrego-Blanco, J. R.; Jonko, A. K.; Vano, J. A.; Newman, A. J.; Bohn, T. J.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

The Colorado River basin is an important river for the food-energy-water nexus in the United States and is projected to change under future scenarios of increased CO2emissions and warming. Streamflow estimates to consider climate impacts occurring as a result of this warming are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain inputs—to fully understand impacts on streamflow sensitivity analysis can help determine how models respond under changing disturbances such as climate and vegetation. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in VIC. Additionally, we examine sensitivities of basin-wide model simulations using an approach that incorporates changes in temperature, precipitation and vegetation to consider impact responses for snow-dominated headwater catchments, low elevation arid basins, and for the upper and lower river basins. We find that for the Colorado River basin, snow-dominated regions are more sensitive to uncertainties. New parameter sensitivities identified include runoff/evapotranspiration sensitivity to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI). Basin-wide streamflow sensitivities to precipitation, temperature and vegetation are variable seasonally and also between sub-basins; with the largest sensitivities for smaller, snow-driven headwater systems where forests are dense. For a major headwater basin, a 1ºC of warming equaled a 30% loss of forest cover, while a 10% precipitation loss equaled a 90% forest cover decline. Scenarios utilizing multiple disturbances led to unexpected results where changes could either magnify or diminish extremes, such as low and peak flows and streamflow timing, dependent on the strength and direction of the forcing. These results indicate the importance of understanding model sensitivities under disturbance impacts to manage these shifts; plan for future water resource changes and determine how the impacts will affect the sustainability and adaptability of food-energy-water systems.

Gravity and Magnetotelluric Modeling of the Santo Domingo Basin, Northern New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamudio, K. D.; Keithline, N.; Blum, C.; Cunningham, E.; Fromont, A.; Jorgensen, M.; Lee, R.; McBride, K.; Saez Berrios, P.; Harper, C.; Pellerin, L.; McPhee, D.; Ferguson, J. F.

2015-12-01

The Santo Domingo Basin, one of a series of basins within the Rio Grande Rift, is located between Santa Fe and Albuquerque, NM, and has been the focus of research by the Summer of Geophysical Experience (SAGE) program since 2000. Gravity, magnetotelluric (MT), and seismic data have been collected throughout the region, although we are concentrating on gravity and MT data collected during SAGE 2014 and 2015. The study area is located in the center of the Santo Domingo basin, an extensional, Miocene age, rift basin, in an area that was minimally involved in the preceding local Laramide orogenic activity. Rift sediments (~3.5 km thick) are underlain by Eocene age sediments that were shed from adjacent uplifts. Up to 3 km of Mesozoic and Paleozoic sediments are preserved above the Precambrian basement. Geologic outcrop, borehole and seismic reflection data, and known density values were used in the construction of a ~100 km-long, generalized geologic cross section from which a gravity response was calculated. The modeled gravity response makes fairly definitive predictions about the geometry of the basin as well as the stratigraphy and faulting within and bounding the basin. MT data was collected at ten stations within the basin. The MT sounding curves exhibit one-dimensional behavior at short periods (<10 s), not surprisingly considering the relatively flat local structure in the area. Layered-earth MT models, without geologic constraints, show a conductive (<10 ohm-m) layer at ~1.5 km above a more resistive layer (>1000 ohm-m) at ~ 3.5-4 km. Conductivities of the major stratigraphic units have been determined from well logs and previous MT modeling. Forward and inverse MT models constrained by the gravity-modeled geologic cross section are used to develop a conductivity model consistent with the geology, and are a step towards a better unified treatment of MT, seismic and gravity data.

Study of Basin Recession Characteristics and Groundwater Storage Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen-Bo, Chen; Cheng-Haw, Lee

2017-04-01

Stream flow and groundwater storage are freshwater resources that human live on.In this study, we discuss southern area basin recession characteristics and Kao-Ping River basin groundwater storage, and hope to supply reference to Taiwan water resource management. The first part of this study is about recession characteristics. We apply Brutsaert (2008) low flow analysis model to establish two recession data pieces sifting models, including low flow steady period model and normal condition model. Within individual event analysis, group event analysis and southern area basin recession assessment, stream flow and base flow recession characteristics are parameterized. The second part of this study is about groundwater storage. Among main basin in southern Taiwan, there are sufficient stream flow and precipitation gaging station data about Kao-Ping River basin and extensive drainage data, and data about different hydrological characteristics between upstream and downstream area. Therefore, this study focuses on Kao-Ping River basin and accesses groundwater storage properties. Taking residue of groundwater volume in dry season into consideration, we use base flow hydrograph to access periodical property of groundwater storage, in order to establish hydrological period conceptual model. With groundwater storage and precipitation accumulative linearity quantified by hydrological period conceptual model, their periodical changing and alternation trend properties in each drainage areas of Kao-Ping River basin have been estimated. Results of this study showed that the recession time of stream flow is related to initial flow rate of the recession events. The recession time index is lower when the flow is stream flow, not base flow, and the recession time index is higher in low flow steady flow period than in normal recession condition. By applying hydrological period conceptual model, groundwater storage could explicitly be analyzed and compared with precipitation, by only using stream flow data. Keywords: stream flow, base flow, recession characteristics, groundwater storage

Application of the system of environmental economic accounting for water SEEAW to the Spanish part of the Duero basin: Lessons learned.

PubMed

Vicente, D J; Rodríguez-Sinobas, L; Garrote, L; Sánchez, R

2016-09-01

The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting for Water (SEEA-W) consists of an agreed international framework for organizing hydrological and economic information in a coherent and consistent manner. The methodology yields to the SEEA-W physical tables focusing on the quantitative assessment of the stocks and their changes in a river basin during the accounting period. For that purpose, the information on the abstraction and water discharge is linked with the environment water stocks, which assesses how current levels of abstraction and discharge affect such water stocks. This study presents the methodology and results to fill out the SEEAW tables for asset accounts on the Spanish Duero basin. Duero is a transboundary river between Spain and Portugal where 80% of its basin area (78,860km(2)) runs into the Spanish territory. The Spanish part is divided in five zones and 13 management systems. The methodology applied the three models used by the Spanish Water Authorities for the planning and allocation of water resources in Spain: 'SIMPA' model (rainfall-runoff model), 'ASTER' model (hydro-meteorological model related to snow processes) and 'SIMGES' model (water management simulation model). The required information was collected with the support from the Duero River basin Authority and the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture. Special care was paid to issues such as: inter-annual variability, the selection of spatial and temporal scale, seasonality, disaggregation of human abstractions into use's type, and transboundary agreements. The results highlighted some drawbacks in the SEEAW methodology for the Duero basin. However, the developed balances are a valuable tool to support the decisions of the Spanish Duero basin Authority on the management and allocation of water in the basin and in the transboundary area with Portugal. Finally, the paper outlines some recommendations for future work. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Residence times in river basins as determined by analysis of long-term tritium records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michel, R.L.

1992-01-01

The US Geological Survey has maintained a network of stations to collect samples for the measurement of tritium concentrations in precipitation and streamflow since the early 1960s. Tritium data from outflow waters of river basins draining 4500-75000 km2 are used to determine average residence times of water within the basins. The basins studied are the Colorado River above Cisco, Utah; the Kissimmee River above Lake Okeechobee, Florida; the Mississippi River above Anoka, Minnesota; the Neuse River above Streets Ferry Bridge near Vanceboro, North Carolina; the Potomac River above Point of Rocks, Maryland; the Sacramento River above Sacramento, California; the Susquehanna River above Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. The basins are modeled with the assumption that the outflow in the river comes from two sources-prompt (within-year) runoff from precipitation, and flow from the long-term reservoirs of the basin. Tritium concentration in the outflow water of the basin is dependent on three factors: (1) tritium concentration in runoff from the long-term reservoir, which depends on the residence time for the reservoir and historical tritium concentrations in precipitation; (2) tritium concentrations in precipitation (the within-year runoff component); (3) relative contributions of flow from the long-term and within-year components. Predicted tritium concentrations for the outflow water in the river basins were calculated for different residence times and for different relative contributions from the two reservoirs. A box model was used to calculate tritium concentrations in the long-term reservoir. Calculated values of outflow tritium concentrations for the basin were regressed against the measured data to obtain a slope as close as possible to 1. These regressions assumed an intercept of zero and were carried out for different values of residence time and reservoir contribution to maximize the fit of modeled versus actual data for all the above rivers. The final slopes of the fitted regression lines ranged from 0.95 to 1.01 (correlation coefficient > 0.96) for the basins studied. Values for the residence time of waters within the basins and average relative contributions of the within-year and long-term reservoirs to outflow were obtained. Values for river basin residence times ranged from 2 years for the Kissimmee River basin to 20 years for the Potomac River basin. The residence times indicate the time scale in which the basin responds to anthropogenic inputs. The modeled tritium concentrations for the basins also furnish input data for urban and agricultural settings where these river waters are used. ?? 1992.

Hydrological modelling improvements required in basins in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Asif; Richards, Keith S.; McRobie, Allan; Booij, Martijn

2016-04-01

Millions of people rely on river water originating from basins in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas (HKH), where snow- and ice-melt are significant flow components. One such basin is the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), where snow- and ice-melt can contribute more than 80% of total flow. Containing some of the world's largest alpine glaciers, this basin may be highly susceptible to global warming and climate change, and reliable predictions of future water availability are vital for resource planning for downstream food and energy needs in a changing climate, but depend on significantly improved hydrological modelling. However, a critical assessment of available hydro-climatic data and hydrological modelling in the HKH region has identified five major failings in many published hydro-climatic studies, even those appearing in reputable international journals. The main weaknesses of these studies are: i) incorrect basin areas; ii) under-estimated precipitation; iii) incorrectly-defined glacier boundaries; iv) under-estimated snow-cover data; and v) use of biased melt factors for snow and ice during the summer months. This paper illustrates these limitations, which have either resulted in modelled flows being under-estimates of measured flows, leading to an implied severe water scarcity; or have led to the use of unrealistically high degree-day factors and over-estimates of glacier melt contributions, implying unrealistic melt rates. These effects vary amongst sub-basins. Forecasts obtained from these models cannot be used reliably in policy making or water resource development, and need revision. Detailed critical analysis and improvement of existing hydrological modelling may be equally necessary in other mountain regions across the world.

Will building new reservoirs always help increase the water supply reliability? - insight from a modeling-based global study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Y.; Tian, F.; Yigzaw, W.; Hejazi, M. I.; Li, H. Y.; Turner, S. W. D.; Vernon, C. R.

2017-12-01

More and more reservoirs are being build or planned in order to help meet the increasing water demand all over the world. However, is building new reservoirs always helpful to water supply? To address this question, the river routing module of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has been extended with a simple yet physical-based reservoir scheme accounting for irrigation, flood control and hydropower operations at each individual reservoir. The new GCAM river routing model has been applied over the global domain with the runoff inputs from the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model. The simulated streamflow is validated at 150 global river basins where the observed streamflow data are available. The model performance has been significantly improved at 77 basins and worsened at 35 basins. To facilitate the analysis of additional reservoir storage impacts at the basin level, a lumped version of GCAM reservoir model has been developed, representing a single lumped reservoir at each river basin which has the regulation capacity of all reservoir combined. A Sequent Peak Analysis is used to estimate how much additional reservoir storage is required to satisfy the current water demand. For basins with water deficit, the water supply reliability can be improved with additional storage. However, there is a threshold storage value at each basin beyond which the reliability stops increasing, suggesting that building new reservoirs will not help better relieve the water stress. Findings in the research can be helpful to the future planning and management of new reservoirs.

Modeling crop water productivity using a coupled SWAT-MODSIM model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study examines the water productivity of irrigated wheat and maize yields in Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semi-arid region of Iran using a coupled modeling approach consisting of the hydrological model (SWAT) and the river basin water allocation model (MODSIM). Dynamic irrigation requireme...

Volcanic facies architecture of an intra-arc strike-slip basin, Santa Rita Mountains, Southern Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busby, Cathy J.; Bassett, Kari N.

2007-09-01

The three-dimensional arrangement of volcanic deposits in strike-slip basins is not only the product of volcanic processes, but also of tectonic processes. We use a strike-slip basin within the Jurassic arc of southern Arizona (Santa Rita Glance Conglomerate) to construct a facies model for a strike-slip basin dominated by volcanism. This model is applicable to releasing-bend strike-slip basins, bounded on one side by a curved and dipping strike-slip fault, and on the other by curved normal faults. Numerous, very deep unconformities are formed during localized uplift in the basin as it passes through smaller restraining bends along the strike-slip fault. In our facies model, the basin fill thins and volcanism decreases markedly away from the master strike-slip fault (“deep” end), where subsidence is greatest, toward the basin-bounding normal faults (“shallow” end). Talus cone-alluvial fan deposits are largely restricted to the master fault-proximal (deep) end of the basin. Volcanic centers are sited along the master fault and along splays of it within the master fault-proximal (deep) end of the basin. To a lesser degree, volcanic centers also form along the curved faults that form structural highs between sub-basins and those that bound the distal ends of the basin. Abundant volcanism along the master fault and its splays kept the deep (master fault-proximal) end of the basin overfilled, so that it could not provide accommodation for reworked tuffs and extrabasinally-sourced ignimbrites that dominate the shallow (underfilled) end of the basin. This pattern of basin fill contrasts markedly with that of nonvolcanic strike-slip basins on transform margins, where clastic sedimentation commonly cannot keep pace with subsidence in the master fault-proximal end. Volcanic and subvolcanic rocks in the strike-slip basin largely record polygenetic (explosive and effusive) small-volume eruptions from many vents in the complexly faulted basin, referred to here as multi-vent complexes. Multi-vent complexes like these reflect proximity to a continuously active fault zone, where numerous strands of the fault frequently plumb small batches of magma to the surface. Releasing-bend extension promotes small, multivent styles of volcanism in preference to caldera collapse, which is more likely to form at releasing step-overs along a strike-slip fault.

A coupled modeling framework for sustainable watershed management in transboundary river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furqan Khan, Hassaan; Yang, Y. C. Ethan; Xie, Hua; Ringler, Claudia

2017-12-01

There is a growing recognition among water resource managers that sustainable watershed management needs to not only account for the diverse ways humans benefit from the environment, but also incorporate the impact of human actions on the natural system. Coupled natural-human system modeling through explicit modeling of both natural and human behavior can help reveal the reciprocal interactions and co-evolution of the natural and human systems. This study develops a spatially scalable, generalized agent-based modeling (ABM) framework consisting of a process-based semi-distributed hydrologic model (SWAT) and a decentralized water system model to simulate the impacts of water resource management decisions that affect the food-water-energy-environment (FWEE) nexus at a watershed scale. Agents within a river basin are geographically delineated based on both political and watershed boundaries and represent key stakeholders of ecosystem services. Agents decide about the priority across three primary water uses: food production, hydropower generation and ecosystem health within their geographical domains. Agents interact with the environment (streamflow) through the SWAT model and interact with other agents through a parameter representing willingness to cooperate. The innovative two-way coupling between the water system model and SWAT enables this framework to fully explore the feedback of human decisions on the environmental dynamics and vice versa. To support non-technical stakeholder interactions, a web-based user interface has been developed that allows for role-play and participatory modeling. The generalized ABM framework is also tested in two key transboundary river basins, the Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia and the Niger River basin in West Africa, where water uses for ecosystem health compete with growing human demands on food and energy resources. We present modeling results for crop production, energy generation and violation of eco-hydrological indicators at both the agent and basin-wide levels to shed light on holistic FWEE management policies in these two basins.

Simulations of hydrologic response in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Jones, L. Elliott; Painter, Jaime A.

2017-12-29

A suite of hydrologic models has been developed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin (ACFB) as part of the National Water Census, a U.S. Geological Survey research program that focuses on developing new water accounting tools and assessing water availability and use at the regional and national scales. Seven hydrologic models were developed using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, land cover, and water use on basin hydrology. A coarse-resolution PRMS model was developed for the entire ACFB, and six fine-resolution PRMS models were developed for six subbasins of the ACFB. The coarse-resolution model was loosely coupled with a groundwater model to better assess the effects of water use on streamflow in the lower ACFB, a complex geologic setting with karst features. The PRMS coarse-resolution model was used to provide inputs of recharge to the groundwater model, which in turn provide simulations of groundwater flow that were aggregated with PRMS-based simulations of surface runoff and shallow-subsurface flow. Simulations without the effects of water use were developed for each model for at least the calendar years 1982–2012 with longer periods for the Potato Creek subbasin (1942–2012) and the Spring Creek subbasin (1952–2012). Water-use-affected flows were simulated for 2008–12. Water budget simulations showed heterogeneous distributions of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, recharge, runoff, and storage change across the ACFB. Streamflow volume differences between no-water-use and water-use simulations were largest along the main stem of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee River Basins, with streamflow percentage differences largest in the upper Chattahoochee and Flint River Basins and Spring Creek in the lower Flint River Basin. Water-use information at a shorter time step and a fully coupled simulation in the lower ACFB may further improve water availability estimates and hydrologic simulations in the basin.

A spatially distributed energy balance snowmelt model for application in mountain basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marks, D.; Domingo, J.; Susong, D.; Link, T.; Garen, D.

1999-01-01

Snowmelt is the principal source for soil moisture, ground-water re-charge, and stream-flow in mountainous regions of the western US, Canada, and other similar regions of the world. Information on the timing, magnitude, and contributing area of melt under variable or changing climate conditions is required for successful water and resource management. A coupled energy and mass-balance model ISNOBAL is used to simulate the development and melting of the seasonal snowcover in several mountain basins in California, Idaho, and Utah. Simulations are done over basins varying from 1 to 2500 km2, with simulation periods varying from a few days for the smallest basin, Emerald Lake watershed in California, to multiple snow seasons for the Park City area in Utah. The model is driven by topographically corrected estimates of radiation, temperature, humidity, wind, and precipitation. Simulation results in all basins closely match independently measured snow water equivalent, snow depth, or runoff during both the development and depletion of the snowcover. Spatially distributed estimates of snow deposition and melt allow us to better understand the interaction between topographic structure, climate, and moisture availability in mountain basins of the western US. Application of topographically distributed models such as this will lead to improved water resource and watershed management.Snowmelt is the principal source for soil moisture, ground-water re-charge, and stream-flow in mountainous regions of the western US, Canada, and other similar regions of the world. Information on the timing, magnitude, and contributing area of melt under variable or changing climate conditions is required for successful water and resource management. A coupled energy and mass-balance model ISNOBAL is used to simulate the development and melting of the seasonal snowcover in several mountain basins in California, Idaho, and Utah. Simulations are done over basins varying from 1 to 2500 km2, with simulation periods varying from a few days for the smallest basin, Emerald Lake watershed in California, to multiple snow seasons for the Park City area in Utah. The model is driven by topographically corrected estimates of radiation, temperature, humidity, wind, and precipitation. Simulation results in all basins closely match independently measured snow water equivalent, snow depth, or runoff during both the development and depletion of the snowcover. Spatially distributed estimates of snow deposition and melt allow us to better understand the interaction between topographic structure, climate, and moisture availability in mountain basins of the western US. Application of topographically distributed models such as this will lead to improved water resource and watershed management.

Using Lunar Impact Basin Relaxation to Test Impact Flux Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nimmo, F.; Conrad, J. W.; Neumann, G. A.; Kamata, S.; Fassett, C.

2017-12-01

Gravity data obtained by the GRAIL mission [1] has constrained the number and distribution of lunar impact basins [2]. We analyzed crater densities for newly-proposed basins to assign relative ages. The extent to which a basin is relaxed is calculated using GRAIL-derived crustal thickness models [3] by comparing the mantle uplift under basins to the surrounding region. With our catalog we can investigate the distribution of basin properties through relative time. We identify a relaxation state transition (RT) around the pre-Nectarian 4 relative age group for basins with diameters > 450 km, similar to previous results using a pre-GRAIL basin catalog [4]. This RT likely signals a change in the global thermal state of the crust, representing the time at which the lunar moho temperature fell below 1400 K [4]. This transition happens 50-100 million years (Myr) after the lunar magma ocean (LMO) solidifies [4]. Based on models and inferences of LMO solidification [5, 6] the RT is expected to occur at 4.25-4.50 Ga, depending on the rate of cooling once a crustal lid has formed [5] and the amount of tidal heating in the early crust [6]. Monotonically declining impact flux models, such as [7] and [8] predict a younger RT; 4.07-4.08 and 4.24-4.27 Ga respectively. A scaled-down version of [8] can fit the RT but fails to match the observed number of younger, unrelaxed basins. Models that invoke a later transient increase in impact flux can reproduce the inferred RT time; for instance, the model of [9] gives a RT age of 4.43-4.46 Ga. This model matches the number of younger basins and implies that basin preservation started at 4.49 Ga, likely before the LMO completely solidified. [1] Zuber M.T. et al. (2013) Science, 339, 668-671. [2] Neumann G.A. et al. (2015) Science Advances, 1, e1500852. [3] Wieczorek M.A. (2013) Science, 339, 671-675. [4] Kamata S. et al. (2015) Icarus, 250, 492-504. [5] Elkins-Tanton L.T. et al. (2011) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 304, 326-336. [6] Meyer, J. et al. (2010) Icarus, 208, 1-10. [7] Robbins S.J. (2014) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 403, 188-198. [8] Neukum G. et al. (2001) Space Sci. Rev., 96, 55-86. [9] Morbidelli A. et al. (2012) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 355, 144-151.

Quantification of Covariance in Tropical Cyclone Activity across Teleconnected Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolwinski-Ward, S. E.; Wang, D.

2015-12-01

Rigorous statistical quantification of natural hazard covariance across regions has important implications for risk management, and is also of fundamental scientific interest. We present a multivariate Bayesian Poisson regression model for inferring the covariance in tropical cyclone (TC) counts across multiple ocean basins and across Saffir-Simpson intensity categories. Such covariability results from the influence of large-scale modes of climate variability on local environments that can alternately suppress or enhance TC genesis and intensification, and our model also simultaneously quantifies the covariance of TC counts with various climatic modes in order to deduce the source of inter-basin TC covariability. The model explicitly treats the time-dependent uncertainty in observed maximum sustained wind data, and hence the nominal intensity category of each TC. Differences in annual TC counts as measured by different agencies are also formally addressed. The probabilistic output of the model can be probed for probabilistic answers to such questions as: - Does the relationship between different categories of TCs differ statistically by basin? - Which climatic predictors have significant relationships with TC activity in each basin? - Are the relationships between counts in different basins conditionally independent given the climatic predictors, or are there other factors at play affecting inter-basin covariability? - How can a portfolio of insured property be optimized across space to minimize risk? Although we present results of our model applied to TCs, the framework is generalizable to covariance estimation between multivariate counts of natural hazards across regions and/or across peril types.

Organic-rich source beds and hydrocarbon production in Gulf Coast region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, D.F.; Lerche, I.

1988-09-01

Two models (I and II) are presented that relate the production of hydrocarbons in the Gulf Coast region to organic-rich source beds of ancient intraslope basins. Model I is empirical, based on present-day depositional environments like the anoxic Orca basin of the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Bannock basin of the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Model I proposed that low oxygen levels in intraslope basins of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) have been a common mechanism for the accumulation of sediments with significantly increased amounts of marine organic carbon. In Model I progradation of the shelf-slope and regional saltmore » tectonics control the occurrence and stratigraphic distribution of source beds throughout the Tertiary of the GOM. In turn, the maturation history of these organic-rich sediments is influenced by the high thermal conductivity of the underlying salt structures. Model II is statistical; it uses random number theory to suggest that the occurrence of organic-rich black muds in intraslope basins of the northwestern GOM had sufficient capacity to account for a dynamic range estimate of 30 to 500 billion bbl oil total and 30 to 300 bcf/million years per ephemeral basin of gas. These estimates, while approximate, clearly indicate the enormous hydrocarbon potential for generating oil and gas reserves in the Gulf Coast geosyncline. Such estimates underscore the need for a better understanding of intraslope basins of the northwestern GOM.« less

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf; Quinn, Niall; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul

2018-05-01

The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

Preliminary gravity inversion model of Frenchman Flat Basin, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phelps, Geoffrey A.; Graham, Scott E.

2002-01-01

The depth of the basin beneath Frenchman Flat is estimated using a gravity inversion method. Gamma-gamma density logs from two wells in Frenchman Flat constrained the density profiles used to create the gravity inversion model. Three initial models were considered using data from one well, then a final model is proposed based on new information from the second well. The preferred model indicates that a northeast-trending oval-shaped basin underlies Frenchman Flat at least 2,100 m deep, with a maximum depth of 2,400 m at its northeast end. No major horst and graben structures are predicted. Sensitivity analysis of the model indicates that each parameter contributes the same magnitude change to the model, up to 30 meters change in depth for a 1% change in density, but some parameters affect a broader area of the basin. The horizontal resolution of the model was determined by examining the spacing between data stations, and was set to 500 square meters.

Diagnosis of the hydrology of a small Arctic basin at the tundra-taiga transition using a physically based hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krogh, Sebastian A.; Pomeroy, John W.; Marsh, Philip

2017-07-01

A better understanding of cold regions hydrological processes and regimes in transitional environments is critical for predicting future Arctic freshwater fluxes under climate and vegetation change. A physically based hydrological model using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model platform was created for a small Arctic basin in the tundra-taiga transition region. The model represents snow redistribution and sublimation by wind and vegetation, snowmelt energy budget, evapotranspiration, subsurface flow through organic terrain, infiltration to frozen soils, freezing and thawing of soils, permafrost and streamflow routing. The model was used to reconstruct the basin water cycle over 28 years to understand and quantify the mass fluxes controlling its hydrological regime. Model structure and parameters were set from the current understanding of Arctic hydrology, remote sensing, field research in the basin and region, and calibration against streamflow observations. Calibration was restricted to subsurface hydraulic and storage parameters. Multi-objective evaluation of the model using observed streamflow, snow accumulation and ground freeze/thaw state showed adequate simulation. Significant spatial variability in the winter mass fluxes was found between tundra, shrubs and forested sites, particularly due to the substantial blowing snow redistribution and sublimation from the wind-swept upper basin, as well as sublimation of canopy intercepted snow from the forest (about 17% of snowfall). At the basin scale, the model showed that evapotranspiration is the largest loss of water (47%), followed by streamflow (39%) and sublimation (14%). The models streamflow performance sensitivity to a set of parameter was analysed, as well as the mean annual mass balance uncertainty associated with these parameters.

Compilation of watershed models for tributaries to the Great Lakes, United States, as of 2010, and identification of watersheds for future modeling for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Soong, David T.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

2011-01-01

As part of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) during 2009–10, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled a list of existing watershed models that had been created for tributaries within the United States that drain to the Great Lakes. Established Federal programs that are overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) are responsible for most of the existing watershed models for specific tributaries. The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) uses the Large Basin Runoff Model to provide data for the management of water levels in the Great Lakes by estimating United States and Canadian inflows to the Great Lakes from 121 large watersheds. GLERL also simulates streamflows in 34 U.S. watersheds by a grid-based model, the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model. The NOAA National Weather Service uses the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model to predict flows at river forecast sites. The USACE created or funded the creation of models for at least 30 tributaries to the Great Lakes to better understand sediment erosion, transport, and aggradation processes that affect Federal navigation channels and harbors. Many of the USACE hydrologic models have been coupled with hydrodynamic and sediment-transport models that simulate the processes in the stream and harbor near the mouth of the modeled tributary. Some models either have been applied or have the capability of being applied across the entire Great Lakes Basin; they are (1) the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model, which was developed by the USGS; (2) the High Impact Targeting (HIT) and Digital Watershed models, which were developed by the Institute of Water Research at Michigan State University; (3) the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L–THIA) model, which was developed by researchers at Purdue University; and (4) the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, which was developed by the National Soil Erosion Research Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. During 2010, the USGS used the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to create a hydrologic model for the Lake Michigan Basin to assess the probable effects of climate change on future groundwater and surface-water resources. The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) model and the Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels (AFINCH) program also were used to support USGS GLRI projects that required estimates of streamflows throughout the Great Lakes Basin. This information on existing watershed models, along with an assessment of geologic, soils, and land-use data across the Great Lakes Basin and the identification of problems that exist in selected tributary watersheds that could be addressed by a watershed model, was used to identify three watersheds in the Great Lakes Basin for future modeling by the USGS. These watersheds are the Kalamazoo River Basin in Michigan, the Tonawanda Creek Basin in New York, and the Bad River Basin in Wisconsin. These candidate watersheds have hydrogeologic, land-type, and soil characteristics that make them distinct from each other, but that are representative of other tributary watersheds within the Great Lakes Basin. These similarities in the characteristics among nearby watersheds will enhance the usefulness of a model by improving the likelihood that parameter values from a previously modeled watershed could reliably be used in the creation of a model of another watershed in the same region. The software program Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) was selected to simulate the hydrologic, sedimentary, and water-quality processes in these selected watersheds. HSPF is a versatile, process-based, continuous-simulation model that has been used extensively by the scientific community, has the ongoing technical support of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and USGS, and provides a means to evaluate the effects that land-use changes or management practices might have on the simulated processes.

Data-driven modeling of background and mine-related acidity and metals in river basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J

2013-01-01

A novel application of self-organizing map (SOM) and multivariate statistical techniques is used to model the nonlinear interaction among basin mineral-resources, mining activity, and surface-water quality. First, the SOM is trained using sparse measurements from 228 sample sites in the Animas River Basin, Colorado. The model performance is validated by comparing stochastic predictions of basin-alteration assemblages and mining activity at 104 independent sites. The SOM correctly predicts (>98%) the predominant type of basin hydrothermal alteration and presence (or absence) of mining activity. Second, application of the Davies–Bouldin criteria to k-means clustering of SOM neurons identified ten unique environmental groups. Median statistics of these groups define a nonlinear water-quality response along the spatiotemporal hydrothermal alteration-mining gradient. These results reveal that it is possible to differentiate among the continuum between inputs of background and mine-related acidity and metals, and it provides a basis for future research and empirical model development.

Tularosa Basin Play Fairway: Weights of Evidence Models

DOE Data Explorer

Adam Brandt

2015-12-01

These models are related to weights of evidence play fairway anlaysis of the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico and Texas. They were created through Spatial Data Modeler: ArcMAP 9.3 geoprocessing tools for spatial data modeling using weights of evidence, logistic regression, fuzzy logic and neural networks. It used to identify high values for potential geothermal plays and low values. The results are relative not only within the Tularosa Basin, but also throughout New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, and other places where high to moderate enthalpy geothermal systems are present (training sites).

The Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project: scientific assessment.

Treesearch

1999-01-01

This CD-ROM contains digital versions (PDF) of the major scientific documents prepared for the Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project (ICBEMP). "A Framework for Ecosystem Management in the Interior Columbia Basin and Portions of the Klamath and Great Basins" describes a general planning model for ecosystem management. The "Highlighted...

Long-term flow forecasts based on climate and hydrologic modeling: Uruguay River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucci, Carlos Eduardo Morelli; Clarke, Robin Thomas; Collischonn, Walter; da Silva Dias, Pedro Leite; de Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio

2003-07-01

This paper describes a procedure for predicting seasonal flow in the Rio Uruguay drainage basin (area 75,000 km2, lying in Brazilian territory), using sequences of future daily rainfall given by the global climate model (GCM) of the Brazilian agency for climate prediction (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Clima, or CPTEC). Sequences of future daily rainfall given by this model were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model appropriate for large drainage basins. Forecasts of flow in the Rio Uruguay were made for the period 1995-2001 of the full record, which began in 1940. Analysis showed that GCM forecasts underestimated rainfall over almost all the basin, particularly in winter, although interannual variability in regional rainfall was reproduced relatively well. A statistical procedure was used to correct for the underestimation of rainfall. When the corrected rainfall sequences were transformed to flow by the hydrologic model, forecasts of flow in the Rio Uruguay basin were better than forecasts based on historic mean or median flows by 37% for monthly flows and by 54% for 3-monthly flows.

Using 3D dynamic cartography and hydrological modelling for linear streamflow mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drogue, G.; Pfister, L.; Leviandier, T.; Humbert, J.; Hoffmann, L.; El Idrissi, A.; Iffly, J.-F.

2002-10-01

This paper presents a regionalization methodology and an original representation of the downstream variation of daily streamflow using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (HRM) and the 3D visualization tools of the GIS ArcView. The regionalization of the parameters of the HRM model was obtained by fitting simultaneously the runoff series from five sub-basins of the Alzette river basin (Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg) according to the permeability of geological formations. After validating the transposability of the regional parameter values on five test basins, streamflow series were simulated with the model at ungauged sites in one medium size geologically contrasted test basin and interpolated assuming a linear increase of streamflow between modelling points. 3D spatio-temporal cartography of mean annual and high raw and specific discharges are illustrated. During a severe flooding, the propagation of the flood waves in the different parts of the stream network shows an important contribution of sub-basins lying on impervious geological formations (direct runoff) compared with those including permeable geological formations which have a more contrasted hydrological response. The effect of spatial variability of rainfall is clearly perceptible.

Modeling Study of Winter Ozone Pollution in Uintah Basin: A Case Study of January 15-31 in 2013 Using WRF-CAMx.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, T. T.; Tran, H. N. Q.; Mansfield, M. L.; Lyman, S. N.

2014-12-01

Since elevated ozone concentrations (>75ppb) were first detected in Uintah Basin in 2009, winter ozone pollution in Uintah Basin (Eastern Utah) has drawn researchers' attention in this region. Joint research efforts among several research groups have been undertaken to study this topic (UBOS, 2012; 2013; 2014); yet this phenomenon is still not completely understood. For example, modeling studies still face problems such as errors in emission inventories and inappropriate meteorological and chemical modeling parameterizations for winter conditions in the Uintah Basin. In this study, the SMOKE-WRF-CAMx model platform (grid resolution of 1.3km) was used to simulate ozone formation in the basin during Jan 15-31 in 2013 to compare the impacts of current bottom-up versus top-down emission inventories on modeled ozone concentrations. Different VOC emission profiles for oil and gas emissions that have been applied in various studies were also examined in CAMx and compared with available monitoring data to determine the representative profile for future studies.

Complex Rayleigh Waves Produced by Shallow Sedimentary Basins and their Potential Effects on Mid-Rise Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, M. D.; Castillo, J.; Massari, A.; Clayton, R. W.

2017-12-01

Earthquake-induced motions recorded by spatially dense seismic arrays in buildings located in the northern Los Angeles basin suggest the presence of complex, amplified surface wave effects on the seismic demand of mid-rise buildings. Several moderate earthquakes produced large-amplitude, seismic energy with slow shear-wave velocities that cannot be explained or accurately modeled by any published 3D seismic velocity models or by Vs30 values. Numerical experiments are conducted to determine if sedimentary basin features are responsible for these rarely modeled and poorly documented contributions to seismic demand computations. This is accomplished through a physics-based wave propagation examination of the effects of different sedimentary basin geometries on the nonlinear response of a mid-rise structural model based on an existing, instrumented building. Using two-dimensional finite-difference predictive modeling, we show that when an earthquake focal depth is near the vertical edge of an elongated and relatively shallow sedimentary basin, dramatically amplified and complex surface waves are generated as a result of the waveguide effect introduced by this velocity structure. In addition, for certain source-receiver distances and basin geometries, body waves convert to secondary Rayleigh waves that propagate both at the free-surface interface and along the depth interface of the basin that show up as multiple large-amplitude arrivals. This study is motivated by observations from the spatially dense, high-sample-rate acceleration data recorded by the Community Seismic Network, a community-hosted strong-motion network, currently consisting of hundreds of sensors located in the southern California area. The results provide quantitative insight into the causative relationship between a sedimentary basin shape and the generation of Rayleigh waves at depth, surface waves at the free surface, scattered seismic energy, and the sensitivity of building responses to each of these.

Lithospheric architecture of the Levant Basin (Eastern Mediterranean region): A 2D modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inati, Lama; Zeyen, Hermann; Nader, Fadi Henri; Adelinet, Mathilde; Sursock, Alexandre; Rahhal, Muhsin Elie; Roure, François

2016-12-01

This paper discusses the deep structure of the lithosphere underlying the easternmost Mediterranean region, in particular the Levant Basin and its margins, where the nature of the crust, continental versus oceanic, remains debated. Crustal thickness and the depth of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) as well as the crustal density distribution were calculated by integrating surface heat flow data, free-air gravity anomaly, geoid and topography. Accordingly, two-dimensional, lithospheric models of the study area are discussed, demonstrating the presence of a progressively attenuated crystalline crust from E to W (average thickness from 35 to 8 km). The crystalline crust is best interpreted as a strongly thinned continental crust under the Levant Basin, represented by two distinct components, an upper and a lower crust. Further to the west, the Herodotus Basin is believed to be underlain by an oceanic crust, with a thickness between 6 and 10 km. The Moho under the Arabian Plate is 35-40 km deep and becomes shallower towards the Mediterranean coast. It appears to be situated at depths ranging between 20 and 23 km below the Levant Basin and 26 km beneath the Herodotus Basin, based on our proposed models. At the Levantine margin, the thinning of the crust in the transitional domain between the onshore and the offshore is gradual, indicating successive extensional regimes that did not reach the beak up stage. In addition, the depth to LAB is around 120 km under the Arabian and the Eurasian Plates, 150 km under the Levant Basin, and it plunges to 180 km under the Herodotus Basin. This study shows that detailed 2D lithosphere modeling using integrated geophysical data can help understand the mechanisms responsible for the modelled lithospheric architecture when constrained with geological findings.

Numerical simulation of ground-water flow in lower Satus Creek Basin, Yakima Indian Reservation, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prych, E.A.

1983-01-01

A multilayer numerical model of steady-state ground-water flow in lower Satus Creek basin was constructed, calibrated using time-averaged data, and used to estimate the long-term effects of proposed irrigation-water management plans on ground-water levels in the area. Model computations showed that irrigation of new lands in the Satus uplands would raise ground-water levels in lower Satus Creek basin and thereby increase the size of the waterlogged areas. The model also demonstrated that pumping water from wells, reducing the amount of irrigation water used in the lowlands, and stopping leakage from Satus No. 2 and 3 Pump Canals were all effective methods to alleviate present waterlogging in some parts of the basin and to counteract some of the anticipated ground-water-level rises that would be caused by irrigating the uplands. The proposed changes in water use affected model-computed ground-water levels most in the eastern part of the basin between Satus No. 2 and No. 3 Pump Canals. The effects on ground-water levels in the western part of the basin between Satus Creek and Satus No. 2 Pump Canal were smaller. (USGS)

Effects of A Weak Crustal Layer in a Transtensional Pull-Apart Basin: Results from a Scaled Physical Modeling Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dooley, T. P.; Monastero, F. C.; McClay, K. R.

2007-12-01

Results of scaled physical models of a releasing bend in the transtensional, dextral strike-slip Coso geothermal system located in the southwest Basin and Range, U.S.A., are instructive for understanding crustal thinning and heat flow in such settings. The basic geometry of the Coso system has been approximated to a 30? dextral releasing stepover. Twenty-four model runs were made representing successive structural iterations that attempted to replicate geologic structures found in the field. The presence of a shallow brittle-ductile transition in the field known from a well-documented seismic-aseismic boundary, was accommodated by inclusion of layers of silicone polymer in the models. A single polymer layer models a conservative brittle-ductile transition in the Coso area at a depth of 6 km. Dual polymer layers impose a local elevation of the brittle-ductile transition to a depth of 4 km. The best match to known geologic structures was achieved with a double layer of silicone polymers with an overlying layer of 100 µm silica sand, a 5° oblique divergent motion across the master strike-slip faults, and a thin-sheet basal rubber décollement. Variation in the relative displacement of the two base plates resulted in some switching in basin symmetry, but the primary structural features remained essentially the same. Although classic, basin-bounding sidewall fault structures found in all pull-apart basin analog models formed in our models, there were also atypical complex intra-basin horst structures that formed where the cross-basin fault zone is situated. These horsts are flanked by deep sedimentary basins that were the locus of maximum crustal thinning accomplished via high-angle extensional and oblique-extensional faults that become progressively more listric with depth as the brittle-ductile transition was approached. Crustal thinning was as much as 50% of the original model depth in dual polymer models. The weak layer at the base of the upper crust appears to focus brittle deformation and facilitate formation of listric normal faults. The implications of these modeling efforts are that: 1) Releasing stepovers that have associated weak upper crust will undergo a more rapid rate of crustal thinning due to the strain focusing effect of this ductile layer; 2) The origin of listric normal faults in these analog models is related to the presence of the weak, ductile layer; and, 3) Due to high dilatency related to major intra-basin extension these stepover structures can be the loci for high heat flow.

HYDROLOGY AND SEDIMENT MODELING USING THE BASINS NON-POINT SOURCE MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

The Non-Point Source Model (Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran, or HSPF) within the EPA Office of Water's BASINS watershed modeling system was used to simulate streamflow and total suspended solids within Contentnea Creek, North Carolina, which is a tributary of the Neuse Rive...

3D geological modeling of the transboundary basin Berzdof-Radomierzyce in Upper Lusatia (Germany/Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woloszyn, Iwona; Merkel, Broder; Stanek, Klaus

2015-04-01

Keywords: Numerical modeling, Paradigm GOCAD, Berzdorf basin (Germany), Radomierzyce basin (Poland), Upper Lusatia. The accuracy of three-dimensional (3D) models depends on their data density and quality. Regions with a complex geology can be a challenge to model, especially if detailed models are required to support a further economic exploitation of a region. In this research, a 3D model was created based on the region's complicated geological condition. The focus area, the Berzdorf - Radomierzyce basin, located in Upper Lusatia on the Polish - German border to the south of the city of Görlitz - Zgorzelec, is such a region. The basin is divided by the volcanic threshold into the western part (Berzdorf basin) and its eastern extension (Radomierzyce basin). The connection between both parts is the so called "lignite bridge". The deposit in the Berzdorf has been exploited from 1830 until 1997. In contrast, the Radomierzyce deposit has never been exploited and is still considered as a prospective deposit for the operating Turów coal mine, which is located only around 15 km from the deposit. To represent the geology of the area a 3D modeling of the transboundary deposit was carried out. Moreover, some strategies to overcome numerical interpolation instability of the geological model with many faults were developed. Due to the large amount of data and its compatibility with other software the 3D geomodeling software Paradigm GOCAD was used. A total number of 10,102 boreholes, 60 cross sections and geological maps converted into digital format - were implemented into the model. The data density of the German part of the area of interest was much higher than the data density of the Polish part. The results demonstrate a good fit between the modeled surfaces and the real geological conditions. This is particularly evident by matching the modeled surfaces to borehole data and geological cross sections. Furthermore, simplification of the model does not decrease the accuracy and the applied techniques lead to a stable and reliable model. The geological model can be used for planning and full-scale mining operations of its eastern part (Radomierzyce). In addition, the detailed geological model can serve as a basis for the hydrogeological and the heat transfer models of the Berzdorf - Radomierzyce basin, in order to identify points were geothermal energy can be best exploited. It can aid towards improving the planned geothermal installations in the region.

Effects of Forecasted Climate Change on Stream Temperatures in the Nooksack River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Truitt, S. E.; Mitchell, R. J.; Yearsley, J. R.; Grah, O. J.

2017-12-01

The Nooksack River in northwest Washington State provides valuable habitat for endangered salmon species, as such it is critical to understand how stream temperatures will be affected by forecasted climate change. The Middle and North Forks basins of the Nooksack are high-relief and glaciated, whereas the South Fork is a lower relief rain and snow dominated basin. Due to a moderate Pacific maritime climate, snowpack in the basins is sensitive to temperature increases. Previous modeling studies in the upper Nooksack basins indicate a reduction in snowpack and spring runoff, and a recession of glaciers into the 21st century. How stream temperatures will respond to these changes is unknown. We use the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) coupled with a glacier dynamics model and the River Basin Model (RBM) to simulate hydrology and stream temperature from present to the year 2100. We calibrate the DHSVM and RBM to the three forks in the upper 1550 km2 of the Nooksack basin, which contain an estimated 3400 hectares of glacial ice. We employ observed stream-temperature data collected over the past decade and hydrologic data from the four USGS streamflow monitoring sites within the basin and observed gridded climate data developed by Linveh et al. (2013). Field work was conducted in the summer of 2016 to determine stream morphology, discharge, and stream temperatures at a number of stream segments for the RBM calibration. We simulate forecast climate change impacts, using gridded daily downscaled data from global climate models of the CMIP5 with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios developed using the multivariate adaptive constructed analogs method (MACA; Abatzoglou and Brown, 2011). Simulation results project a trending increase in stream temperature as a result of lower snowmelt and higher air temperatures into the 21st century, especially in the lower relief, unglaciated South Fork basin.

Simulation of streamflow temperatures in the Yakima River basin, Washington, April-October 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, J.J.

1986-01-01

The effects of storage, diversion, return flow, and meteorological variables on water temperature in the Yakima River, in Washington State, were simulated, and the changes in water temperature that could be expected under four alternative-management scenarios were examined for improvement in anadromous fish environment. A streamflow routing model and Lagrangian streamflow temperature model were used to simulate water discharge and temperature in the river. The estimated model errors were 12% for daily discharge and 1.7 C for daily temperature. Sensitivity analysis of the simulation of water temperatures showed that the effect of reservoir outflow temperatures diminishes in a downstream direction. A 4 C increase in outflow temperatures results in a 1.0 C increase in mean irrigation season water temperature at Umtanum in the upper Yakima River basin, but only a 0.01C increase at Prosser in the lower basin. The influence of air temperature on water temperature increases in a downstream direction and is the dominant influence in the lower basin. A 4 C increase in air temperature over the entire basin resulted in a 2.34 C increase in river temperatures at Prosser in the lower basin and 1.46 C at Umtanum in the upper basin. Changes in wind speed and model wind-function parameters had little effect on the model predicted water temperature. Of four alternative management scenarios suggested by the U.S. Bureau of Indian Affairs and the Yakima Indian Nation, the 1981 reservoir releases maintained without diversions or return flow in the river basin produced water temperatures nearest those considered as preferable for salmon and steelhead trout habitat. The alternative management scenario for no reservoir storage and no diversions or return flows in the river basin (estimate of natural conditions) produced conditions that were the least like those considered as preferable for salmon and steelhead trout habitat. (Author 's abstract)

FEASIBILITY STUDY ON EXECUTIVE PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT FOR BASIN ECOSYSTEMS MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

The project was undertaken in order to provide a feasibility study in developing and implementing a complete executive program to interface automatically various basin-wide water quality models for use by relatively inexperienced modelers. This executive program should ultimately...

An Integrated Decision Support System for Water Quality Management of Songhua River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Haiping; Yin, Qiuxiao; Chen, Ling

2010-11-01

In the Songhua River Basin of China, many water resource and water environment conflicts interact. A Decision Support System (DSS) for the water quality management has been established for the Basin. The System is featured by the incorporation of a numerical water quality model system into a conventional water quality management system which usually consists of geographic information system (GIS), WebGIS technology, database system and network technology. The model system is built based on DHI MIKE software comprising of a basin rainfall-runoff module, a basin pollution load evaluation module, a river hydrodynamic module and a river water quality module. The DSS provides a friendly graphical user interface that enables the rapid and transparent calculation of various water quality management scenarios, and also enables the convenient access and interpretation of the modeling results to assist the decision-making.

Modeling surface water dynamics in the Amazon Basin using MOSART-Inundation v1.0: Impacts of geomorphological parameters and river flow representation

DOE PAGES

Luo, Xiangyu; Li, Hong -Yi; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2017-03-23

In the Amazon Basin, floodplain inundation is a key component of surface water dynamics and plays an important role in water, energy and carbon cycles. The Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) was extended with a macroscale inundation scheme for representing floodplain inundation. The extended model, named MOSART-Inundation, was used to simulate surface hydrology of the entire Amazon Basin. Previous hydrologic modeling studies in the Amazon Basin identified and addressed a few challenges in simulating surface hydrology of this basin, including uncertainties of floodplain topography and channel geometry, and the representation of river flow in reaches with mild slopes.more » This study further addressed four aspects of these challenges. First, the spatial variability of vegetation-caused biases embedded in the HydroSHEDS digital elevation model (DEM) data was explicitly addressed. A vegetation height map of about 1 km resolution and a land cover dataset of about 90 m resolution were used in a DEM correction procedure that resulted in an average elevation reduction of 13.2 m for the entire basin and led to evident changes in the floodplain topography. Second, basin-wide empirical formulae for channel cross-sectional dimensions were refined for various subregions to improve the representation of spatial variability in channel geometry. Third, the channel Manning roughness coefficient was allowed to vary with the channel depth, as the effect of riverbed resistance on river flow generally declines with increasing river size. Lastly, backwater effects were accounted for to better represent river flow in mild-slope reaches. The model was evaluated against in situ streamflow records and remotely sensed Envisat altimetry data and Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) inundation data. In a sensitivity study, seven simulations were compared to evaluate the impacts of the five modeling aspects addressed in this study. The comparisons showed that representing floodplain inundation could significantly improve the simulated streamflow and river stages. Refining floodplain topography, channel geometry and Manning roughness coefficients, as well as accounting for backwater effects had notable impacts on the simulated surface water dynamics in the Amazon Basin. As a result, the understanding obtained in this study could be helpful in improving modeling of surface hydrology in basins with evident inundation, especially at regional to continental scales.« less

Modeling surface water dynamics in the Amazon Basin using MOSART-Inundation v1.0: Impacts of geomorphological parameters and river flow representation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Xiangyu; Li, Hong -Yi; Leung, L. Ruby

In the Amazon Basin, floodplain inundation is a key component of surface water dynamics and plays an important role in water, energy and carbon cycles. The Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) was extended with a macroscale inundation scheme for representing floodplain inundation. The extended model, named MOSART-Inundation, was used to simulate surface hydrology of the entire Amazon Basin. Previous hydrologic modeling studies in the Amazon Basin identified and addressed a few challenges in simulating surface hydrology of this basin, including uncertainties of floodplain topography and channel geometry, and the representation of river flow in reaches with mild slopes.more » This study further addressed four aspects of these challenges. First, the spatial variability of vegetation-caused biases embedded in the HydroSHEDS digital elevation model (DEM) data was explicitly addressed. A vegetation height map of about 1 km resolution and a land cover dataset of about 90 m resolution were used in a DEM correction procedure that resulted in an average elevation reduction of 13.2 m for the entire basin and led to evident changes in the floodplain topography. Second, basin-wide empirical formulae for channel cross-sectional dimensions were refined for various subregions to improve the representation of spatial variability in channel geometry. Third, the channel Manning roughness coefficient was allowed to vary with the channel depth, as the effect of riverbed resistance on river flow generally declines with increasing river size. Lastly, backwater effects were accounted for to better represent river flow in mild-slope reaches. The model was evaluated against in situ streamflow records and remotely sensed Envisat altimetry data and Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) inundation data. In a sensitivity study, seven simulations were compared to evaluate the impacts of the five modeling aspects addressed in this study. The comparisons showed that representing floodplain inundation could significantly improve the simulated streamflow and river stages. Refining floodplain topography, channel geometry and Manning roughness coefficients, as well as accounting for backwater effects had notable impacts on the simulated surface water dynamics in the Amazon Basin. As a result, the understanding obtained in this study could be helpful in improving modeling of surface hydrology in basins with evident inundation, especially at regional to continental scales.« less

Approximating basins of attraction for dynamical systems via stable radial bases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cavoretto, R.; De Rossi, A.; Perracchione, E.

2016-06-08

In applied sciences it is often required to model and supervise temporal evolution of populations via dynamical systems. In this paper, we focus on the problem of approximating the basins of attraction of such models for each stable equilibrium point. We propose to reconstruct the basins via an implicit interpolant using stable radial bases, obtaining the surfaces by partitioning the phase space into disjoint regions. An application to a competition model presenting jointly three stable equilibria is considered.

Basin analysis of South Mozambique graben

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iliffe, J.; Lerche, I.; De Buyl, M.

1987-05-01

Basin analysis of the South Mozambique graben between latitudes 25/sup 0/ and 26/sup 0/ and longitudes 34/sup 0/ and 35/sup 0/ demonstrates how modeling techniques may help to assess the oil potential of a speculative basin with only minimal seismic data. Two-dimensional restoration of the seismic profiles, using a backstripping and decompaction program on pseudowells linked with structural reconstruction, assesses the rift's two-phase extensional history. Since no well or thermal indicator data exist within the basin, the thermal history had to be derived from extensional models. The best fit of observed subsidence curves and those predicted by the models resultsmore » in values of lithospheric extension (gamma). The disagreement in observed and theoretical basement subsidence curves was minimized by taking a range of gamma for each model for each well. These extension factors were then used in each model's equations for paleoheat flux to derive the heat-flow histories. (It is noted that a systematic basinwide variance of gamma occurs.) The heat-flux histories were then used with a one-dimensional fluid flow/compaction model to calculate TTI values and oil windows. A Tissot generation model was applied to each formation in every well for kerogen Types I, II, and III. The results were contoured across the basin to assess possible oil- and gas-prone formations. The extensional, burial, and thermal histories are integrated into an overall basin development picture and provide an oil and gas provenance model. Thus they estimate the basinwide hydrocarbon potential and also gain insight into the additional data necessary to significantly decrease the uncertainty.« less

The dynamics of coastal models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hearn, Clifford J.

2008-01-01

Coastal basins are defined as estuaries, lagoons, and embayments. This book deals with the science of coastal basins using simple models, many of which are presented in either analytical form or Microsoft Excel or MATLAB. The book introduces simple hydrodynamics and its applications, from the use of simple box and one-dimensional models to flow over coral reefs. The book also emphasizes models as a scientific tool in our understanding of coasts, and introduces the value of the most modern flexible mesh combined wave-current models. Examples from shallow basins around the world illustrate the wonders of the scientific method and the power of simple dynamics. This book is ideal for use as an advanced textbook for graduate students and as an introduction to the topic for researchers, especially those from other fields of science needing a basic understanding of the basic ideas of the dynamics of coastal basins.

BASINS Publications

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Although BASINS has been in use for the past 10 years, there has been limited modeling guidance on its applications for complex environmental problems, such as modeling impacts of hydro modification on water quantity and quality.

A hybrid regional approach to model discharge at multiple sub-basins within the Calapooia Watershed, Oregon, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Modeling is a useful tool for quantifying ecosystem services and understanding their temporal dynamics. Here we describe a hybrid regional modeling approach for sub-basins of the Calapooia watershed that incorporates both a precipitation-runoff model and an indexed regression mo...

The geometry of pull-apart basins in the southern part of Sumatran strike-slip fault zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aribowo, Sonny

2018-02-01

Models of pull-apart basin geometry have been described by many previous studies in a variety tectonic setting. 2D geometry of Ranau Lake represents a pull-apart basin in the Sumatran Fault Zone. However, there are unclear geomorphic traces of two sub-parallel overlapping strike-slip faults in the boundary of the lake. Nonetheless, clear geomorphic traces that parallel to Kumering Segment of the Sumatran Fault are considered as inactive faults in the southern side of the lake. I demonstrate the angular characteristics of the Ranau Lake and Suoh complex pull-apart basins and compare with pull-apart basin examples from published studies. I use digital elevation model (DEM) image to sketch the shape of the depression of Ranau Lake and Suoh Valley and measure 2D geometry of pull-apart basins. This study shows that Ranau Lake is not a pull-apart basin, and the pull-apart basin is actually located in the eastern side of the lake. Since there is a clear connection between pull-apart basin and volcanic activity in Sumatra, I also predict that the unclear trace of the pull-apart basin near Ranau Lake may be covered by Ranau Caldera and Seminung volcanic products.

Assessing groundwater recharge in an Andean closed basin using isotopic characterization and a rainfall-runoff model: Salar del Huasco basin, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uribe, Javier; Muñoz, José F.; Gironás, Jorge; Oyarzún, Ricardo; Aguirre, Evelyn; Aravena, Ramón

2015-11-01

Closed basins are catchments whose drainage networks converge to lakes, salt flats or alluvial plains. Salt flats in the closed basins in arid northern Chile are extremely important ecological niches. The Salar del Huasco, one of these salt flats located in the high plateau (Altiplano), is a Ramsar site located in a national park and is composed of a wetland ecosystem rich in biodiversity. The proper management of the groundwater, which is essential for the wetland function, requires accurate estimates of recharge in the Salar del Huasco basin. This study quantifies the spatio-temporal distribution of the recharge, through combined use of isotopic characterization of the different components of the water cycle and a rainfall-runoff model. The use of both methodologies aids the understanding of hydrological behavior of the basin and enabled estimation of a long-term average recharge of 22 mm/yr (i.e., 15 % of the annual rainfall). Recharge has a high spatial variability, controlled by the geological and hydrometeorological characteristics of the basin, and a high interannual variability, with values ranging from 18 to 26 mm/yr. The isotopic approach allowed not only the definition of the conceptual model used in the hydrological model, but also eliminated the possibility of a hydrogeological connection between the aquifer of the Salar del Huasco basin and the aquifer that feeds the springs of the nearby town of Pica. This potential connection has been an issue of great interest to agriculture and tourism activities in the region.

Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal.

PubMed

Bajracharya, Ajay Ratna; Bajracharya, Sagar Ratna; Shrestha, Arun Bhakta; Maharjan, Sudan Bikash

2018-06-01

The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region is an important global freshwater resource. The hydrological regime of the region is vulnerable to climatic variations, especially precipitation and temperature. In our study, we modelled the impact of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the snow dominated Kaligandaki Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for a future projection of changes in the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki basin based on Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's (CMIP5) General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. It is predicted to be a rise in the average annual temperature of over 4°C, and an increase in the average annual precipitation of over 26% by the end of the 21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. Modeling results show these will lead to significant changes in the basin's water balance and hydrological regime. In particular, a 50% increase in discharge is expected at the outlet of the basin. Snowmelt contribution will largely be affected by climate change, and it is projected to increase by 90% by 2090.Water availability in the basin is not likely to decrease during the 21st century. The study demonstrates that the important water balance components of snowmelt, evapotranspiration, and water yield at higher elevations in the upper and middle sub-basins of the Kaligandaki Basin will be most affected by the increasing temperatures and precipitation. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nature of the uppermost mantle below the Porcupine Basin, offshore Ireland: new insights from seismic refraction and gravity data modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prada, M.; Watremez, L.; Chen, C.; O'Reilly, B.; Minshull, T. A.; Reston, T. J.; Wagner, G.; Gaw, V.; Klaeschen, D.; Shannon, P.

2015-12-01

The Porcupine Basin is a tongue-shaped basin SW of Ireland formed during the opening of the North Atlantic Ocean. Its history of sedimentation reveals several rifting and subsidence phases during the Late Paleozoic and Cenozoic, with a particular major rift phase occurring in Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous times. Previous work, focused on seismic and gravity data, suggest the presence of major crustal faulting and uppermost mantle serpentinization in the basin. Serpentinization is a key factor in lithospheric extension since it reduces the strength of mantle rocks, and hence, influences the tectonics of the lithosphere. Besides reducing the seismic velocity of the rock, serpentinization decreases mantle rock density favoring isostatic rebound and basin uplift, thus affecting the tectonic and thermal evolution of the basin. Here we characterize the deep structure of the Porcupine Basin from wide-angle seismic (WAS) and gravity data, with especial emphasis on the nature of the underlying mantle. The WAS data used were acquired along a 300 km long transect across the northern region of the basin. We used a travel time inversion method to model the data and obtain a P-wave velocity (Vp) model of the crust and uppermost mantle, together with the geometry of the main geological interfaces. The crustal structure along the model reveals a maximum stretching factor of ~5-6. These values are well within the range of crustal extension at which the crust becomes entirely brittle allowing the formation of major crustal faulting and serpentinization of the mantle. To further constrain the seismic structure and hence the nature of the mantle we assess the Vp uncertainty of the model by means of a Monte Carlo analysis and perform gravity modeling to test different interpretations regarding mantle rock nature. This project is funded by the Irish Shelf Petroleum Studies Group (ISPSG) of the Irish Petroleum Infrastructure Programme Group 4.

Geologic and climatic controls on streamflow generation processes in a complex eogenetic karst basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vibhava, F.; Graham, W. D.; Maxwell, R. M.

2012-12-01

Streamflow at any given location and time is representative of surface and subsurface contributions from various sources. The ability to fully identify the factors controlling these contributions is key to successfully understanding the transport of contaminants through the system. In this study we developed a fully integrated 3D surface water-groundwater-land surface model, PARFLOW, to evaluate geologic and climatic controls on streamflow generation processes in a complex eogenetic karst basin in North Central Florida. In addition to traditional model evaluation criterion, such as comparing field observations to model simulated streamflow and groundwater elevations, we quantitatively evaluated the model's predictions of surface-groundwater interactions over space and time using a suite of binary end-member mixing models that were developed using observed specific conductivity differences among surface and groundwater sources throughout the domain. Analysis of model predictions showed that geologic heterogeneity exerts a strong control on both streamflow generation processes and land atmospheric fluxes in this watershed. In the upper basin, where the karst aquifer is overlain by a thick confining layer, approximately 92% of streamflow is "young" event flow, produced by near stream rainfall. Throughout the upper basin the confining layer produces a persistent high surficial water table which results in high evapotranspiration, low groundwater recharge and thus negligible "inter-event" streamflow. In the lower basin, where the karst aquifer is unconfined, deeper water tables result in less evapotranspiration. Thus, over 80% of the streamflow is "old" subsurface flow produced by diffuse infiltration through the epikarst throughout the lower basin, and all surface contributions to streamflow originate in the upper confined basin. Climatic variability provides a secondary control on surface-subsurface and land-atmosphere fluxes, producing significant seasonal and interannual variability in these processes. Spatial and temporal patterns of evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge and streamflow generation processes reveal potential hot spots and hot moments for surface and groundwater contamination in this basin.

Integrated Analysis on Gravity and Magnetic Fields of the Hailar Basin, NE China: Implications for Basement Structure and Deep Tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Bin; Wang, Liangshu; Dong, Ping; Wu, YongJing; Li, Changbo; Hu, Bo; Wang, Chong

2012-11-01

The Hailar Basin is one of the typical basins among the NE China Basin Groups, which is situated in the east of East Asia Orogene between the Siberia Plate and the North China Plate. Based on the detailed analysis of magnetic, gravity, petrophysical, geothermal and seismological data, we separate the Gravity and Magnetic Anomalies (GMA) into four orders using Wavelet Multi-scale Decomposition (WMD). The apparent depths of causative sources were then assessed by Power Spectrum Analysis (PSA) of each order. Low-order wavelet detail anomalies were used to study the basin's basement structure such as major faults, the basement lithology, uplifts and depressions. High-order ones were used for the inversion of Moho and Curie discontinuities using the Parker method. The results show that the Moho uplifting area of the Hailar Basin is located at the NE part of the basin, the Curie uplifting area is at the NW part, and neither of them is consistent with the basin's sedimentary center. This indicates that the Hailar Basin may differ in basin building pattern from other middle and eastern basins of the basin groups, and the Hailar Basin might be of a passive type. When the Pacific Plate was subducting to NE China, the frontier of the plate lying on the mantle transition zone didn't pass through the Great Khingan Mountains region, so there is not an obvious magma upwelling or lithospheric extension in the Hailar Basin area. Finally, based on the seismological data and results of WMD, a probable 2D crust model is derived from an across-basin profile using the 2D forward modeling of the Bouguer gravity anomaly. The results agree with those from seismic inversion, suggesting WMD is suitable for identifying major crustal density interfaces.

Large-Scale Multiphase Flow Modeling of Hydrocarbon Migration and Fluid Sequestration in Faulted Cenozoic Sedimentary Basins, Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, B.; Garven, G.; Boles, J. R.

2011-12-01

Major fault systems play a first-order role in controlling fluid migration in the Earth's crust, and also in the genesis/preservation of hydrocarbon reservoirs in young sedimentary basins undergoing deformation, and therefore understanding the geohydrology of faults is essential for the successful exploration of energy resources. For actively deforming systems like the Santa Barbara Basin and Los Angeles Basin, we have found it useful to develop computational geohydrologic models to study the various coupled and nonlinear processes affecting multiphase fluid migration, including relative permeability, anisotropy, heterogeneity, capillarity, pore pressure, and phase saturation that affect hydrocarbon mobility within fault systems and to search the possible hydrogeologic conditions that enable the natural sequestration of prolific hydrocarbon reservoirs in these young basins. Subsurface geology, reservoir data (fluid pressure-temperature-chemistry), structural reconstructions, and seismic profiles provide important constraints for model geometry and parameter testing, and provide critical insight on how large-scale faults and aquifer networks influence the distribution and the hydrodynamics of liquid and gas-phase hydrocarbon migration. For example, pore pressure changes at a methane seepage site on the seafloor have been carefully analyzed to estimate large-scale fault permeability, which helps to constrain basin-scale natural gas migration models for the Santa Barbara Basin. We have developed our own 2-D multiphase finite element/finite IMPES numerical model, and successfully modeled hydrocarbon gas/liquid movement for intensely faulted and heterogeneous basin profiles of the Los Angeles Basin. Our simulations suggest that hydrocarbon reservoirs that are today aligned with the Newport-Inglewood Fault Zone were formed by massive hydrocarbon flows from deeply buried source beds in the central synclinal region during post-Miocene time. Fault permeability, capillarity forces between the fault and juxtaposition of aquifers/aquitards, source oil saturation, and rate of generation control the efficiency of a petroleum trap and carbon sequestration. This research is focused on natural processes in real geologic systems, but our results will also contribute to an understanding of the subsurface behavior of injected anthropogenic greenhouse gases, especially when targeted storage sites may be influenced by regional faults, which are ubiquitous in the Earth's crust.

Regionalization Study of Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM) in Hydrologically Homogeneous River Basins of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumari, Babita; Paul, Pranesh Kumar; Singh, Rajendra; Mishra, Ashok; Gupta, Praveen Kumar; Singh, Raghvendra P.

2017-04-01

A new semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model, namely Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM), has been developed under 'PRACRITI-2' program of Space Application Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad for sustainable water resources management of India by using data from Indian Remote Sensing satellites. Entire India is divided into 5km x 5km grid cells and properties at the center of the cells are assumed to represent the property of the cells. SHM contains five modules namely surface water, forest, snow, groundwater and routing. Two empirical equations (SCS-CN and Hargreaves) and water balance method have been used in the surface water module; the forest module is based on the calculations of water balancing & dynamics of subsurface. 2-D Boussinesq equation is used for groundwater modelling which is solved using implicit finite-difference. The routing module follows a distributed routing approach which requires flow path and network with the key point of travel time estimation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of SHM using regionalization technique which also checks the usefulness of a model in data scarce condition or for ungauged basins. However, homogeneity analysis is pre-requisite to regionalization. Similarity index (Φ) and hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis are adopted to test the homogeneity in terms of physical attributes of three basins namely Brahmani (39,033 km km^2)), Baitarani (10,982 km km^2)) and Kangsabati (9,660 km km^2)) with respect to Subarnarekha (29,196 km km^2)) basin. The results of both homogeneity analysis show that Brahmani basin is the most homogeneous with respect to Subarnarekha river basin in terms of physical characteristics (land use land cover classes, soiltype and elevation). The calibration and validation of model parameters of Brahmani basin is in progress which are to be transferred into the SHM set up of Subarnarekha basin and results are to be compared with the results of calibrated and validated parameter set up of SHM of Subarnarekha basin to test the applicability of SHM in hydrologically homogeneous regions of India. Keywords: SHM, regionalization, homogeneity, donor catchment, similarity index, cluster analysis

3D basin structure of the Santa Clara Valley constrained by ambient noise tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, H.; Lee, S. J.; Rhie, J.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

The basin structure is an important factor controls the intensity and duration of ground shaking due to earthquake. Thus it is important to study the basin structure for better understanding seismic hazard and also improving the earthquake preparedness. An active source seismic survey is the most appropriate method to determine the basin structure in detail but its applicability, especially in urban areas, is limited. In this study, we tested the potential of an ambient noise tomography, which can be a cheaper and more easily applicable method compared to a traditional active source survey, to construct the velocity model of the basin. Our testing region is the Santa Clara Valley, which is one of the major urban sedimentary basins in the States. We selected this region because continuous seismic recordings and well defined velocity models are available. Continuous seismic recordings of 6 months from short-period array of Santa Clara Valley Seismic Experiment are cross-correlated with 1 hour time window. And the fast marching method and the subspace method are jointly applied to construct 2-D group velocity maps between 0.2 - 4.0 Hz. Then, shear wave velocity model of the Santa Clara Valley is calculated up to 5 km depth using bayesian inversion technique. Although our model cannot depict the detailed structures, it is roughly comparable with the velocity model of the US Geological Survey, which is constrained by active seismic surveys and field researches. This result indicate that an ambient noise tomography can be a replacement, at least in part, of an active seismic survey to construct the velocity model of the basin.

Impact of Model Resolution and Snow Cover Modification on the Performance of Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) Models of Winter Conditions that Contribute to Ozone Pollution in the Uintah Basin, Eastern Utah, Winter 2013. Trang T. Tran, Marc Mansfield and Seth Lyman Bingham Research Center, Utah State University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, T. T.; Mansfield, M. L.; Lyman, S.

2013-12-01

The Uintah Basin of Eastern Utah, USA, has experienced winter ozone pollution events with ozone concentrations exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standard of 75 ppb. With a total of four winter seasons of ozone sampling, winter 2013 is the worst on record for ozone pollution in the basin. Emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from oil and gas industries and other activities provide the precursors for ozone formation. The chemical mechanism of ozone formation is non-linear and complicated depending on the availability of VOCs and NOx. Moreover, meteorological conditions also play an important role in triggering ozone pollution. In the Uintah Basin, high albedo due to snow cover, a 'bowl-shaped' terrain, and strong inversions that trap precursors within the boundary layer are important factors contributing to ozone pollution. However, these local meteorological phenomena have been misrepresented by recent numerical modeling studies, probably due to misrepresenting the snow cover and complex terrain of the basin. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations are performed on a model domain covering the entire Uintah Basin for winter 2013 (Dec 2012 - Mar 2013) to test the impacts of several grid resolutions (e.g., 4000, 1300 and 800m) and snow cover modification on performance of models of the local weather conditions of the basin. These sensitivity tests help to determine the best model configurations to produce appropriate meteorological input for air-quality simulations.

WRF model for precipitation simulation and its application in real-time flood forecasting in the Jinshajiang River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jianzhong; Zhang, Hairong; Zhang, Jianyun; Zeng, Xiaofan; Ye, Lei; Liu, Yi; Tayyab, Muhammad; Chen, Yufan

2017-07-01

An accurate flood forecasting with long lead time can be of great value for flood prevention and utilization. This paper develops a one-way coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system consisting of the mesoscale numerical weather model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Chinese Xinanjiang hydrological model to extend flood forecasting lead time in the Jinshajiang River Basin, which is the largest hydropower base in China. Focusing on four typical precipitation events includes: first, the combinations and mode structures of parameterization schemes of WRF suitable for simulating precipitation in the Jinshajiang River Basin were investigated. Then, the Xinanjiang model was established after calibration and validation to make up the hydro-meteorological system. It was found that the selection of the cloud microphysics scheme and boundary layer scheme has a great impact on precipitation simulation, and only a proper combination of the two schemes could yield accurate simulation effects in the Jinshajiang River Basin and the hydro-meteorological system can provide instructive flood forecasts with long lead time. On the whole, the one-way coupled hydro-meteorological model could be used for precipitation simulation and flood prediction in the Jinshajiang River Basin because of its relatively high precision and long lead time.

Modelling of point and diffuse pollution: application of the Moneris model in the Ipojuca river basin, Pernambuco State, Brazil.

PubMed

de Lima Barros, Alessandra Maciel; do Carmo Sobral, Maria; Gunkel, Günter

2013-01-01

Emissions of pollutants and nutrients are causing several problems in aquatic ecosystems, and in general an excess of nutrients, specifically nitrogen and phosphorus, is responsible for the eutrophication process in water bodies. In most developed countries, more attention is given to diffuse pollution because problems with point pollution have already been solved. In many non-developed countries basic data for point and diffuse pollution are not available. The focus of the presented studies is to quantify nutrient emissions from point and diffuse sources in the Ipojuca river basin, Pernambuco State, Brazil, using the Moneris model (Modelling Nutrient Emissions in River Systems). This model has been developed in Germany and has already been implemented in more than 600 river basins. The model is mainly based on river flow, water quality and geographical information system data. According to the Moneris model results, untreated domestic sewage is the major source of nutrients in the Ipojuca river basin. The Moneris model has shown itself to be a useful tool that allows the identification and quantification of point and diffuse nutrient sources, thus enabling the adoption of measures to reduce them. The Moneris model, conducted for the first time in a tropical river basin with intermittent flow, can be used as a reference for implementation in other watersheds.

Bibliography, geophysical data locations, and well core listings for the Mississippi Interior Salt Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-05-01

To date, comprehensive basin analysis and petroleum system modeling studies have not been performed on any of the basins in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Of these basins, the Mississippi Interior Salt Basin has been selected for study because it is the most petroliferous basin in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, small- and medium-size companies are drilling the majority of the exploration wells. These companies do not have the resources to perform basin analysis or petroleum system modeling research studies nor do they have the resources to undertake elaborate information searches through the volumes of publicly available data at themore » universities, geological surveys, and regulatory agencies in the region. The Advanced Geologic Basin Analysis Program of the US Department of Energy provides an avenue for studying and evaluating sedimentary basins. This program is designed to improve the efficiency of the discovery of the nation`s remaining undiscovered oil resources by providing improved access to information available in the public domain and by increasing the amount of public information on domestic basins. This report provides the information obtained from Year 1 of this study of the Mississippi Interior Salt Basin. The work during Year 1 focused on inventorying the data files and records of the major information repositories in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and making these inventories easily accessible in an electronic format.« less

Differential exhumation at eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, from apatite fission-track thermochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Bin; Liu, Shu-gen; Li, Zhi-wu; Jansa, Luba F.; Liu, Shun; Wang, Guo-zhi; Sun, Wei

2013-04-01

New apatite fission-track (AFT) ages from Mesozoic sediments in the Sichuan basin, combined with previous fission-track data, demonstrate differential uplift and exhumation across the basin. Particularly significant change in exhumation (at least ~ 2000 m) was found across the Huaying Mts. Modeled temperature-time histories and the Boomerang plot of AFT dataset across the basin suggest rapid cooling and exhumation events during 120-80 Ma and at 20-10 Ma. They reflect the start of the basin-scale differential uplift and exhumation which effected the eastern growth of Tibetan Plateau. In particular, nested old-age center separated by Huaying Mts. was found in the center-to-northwest part of the Sichuan basin. A simplified one-dimensional, steady-state solution model was developed to calculate the mean exhumation rate, which is 0.05-0.2 mm/yr in most parts of the basin. It suggests a slow exhumation across much of the basin. The regional pattern of AFT age, length and erosion rate supports a progressive change from the nested old-age center towards the southwest. This pattern supports the idea of a prolonged, steady-state uplift and exhumation process across the basin, controlled by cratonic basin structure. The eastern growth of the Tibetan Plateau has exerted a significant effect on the rapid exhumation of the southwestern part of the Sichuan basin, but not on all of the basin during the Late Cenozoic.

The Canada Basin compared to the southwest South China Sea: Two marginal ocean basins with hyper-extended continent-ocean transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lu; Stephenson, Randell; Clift, Peter D.

2016-11-01

Both the Canada Basin (a sub-basin within the Amerasia Basin) and southwest (SW) South China Sea preserve oceanic spreading centres and adjacent passive continental margins characterized by broad COT zones with hyper-extended continental crust. We have investigated strain accommodation in the regions immediately adjacent to the oceanic spreading centres in these two basins using 2-D backstripping subsidence reconstructions, coupled with forward modelling constrained by estimates of upper crustal extensional faulting. Modelling is better constrained in the SW South China Sea but our results for the Canada Basin are analogous. Depth-dependent extension is required to explain the great depth of both basins because only modest upper crustal faulting is observed. A weak lower crust in the presence of high heat flow and, accordingly, a lower crust that extends far more the upper crust are suggested for both basins. Extension in the COT may have continued even after seafloor spreading has ceased. The analogous results for the two basins considered are discussed in terms of (1) constraining the timing and distribution of crustal thinning along the respective continental margins, (2) defining the processes leading to hyper-extension of continental crust in the respective tectonic settings and (3) illuminating the processes that control hyper-extension in these basins and more generally.

47. MISSISSIPPI BASIN MODEL AT CLINTON SUBSTATION. VIEW OF STAGE ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

47. MISSISSIPPI BASIN MODEL AT CLINTON SUBSTATION. VIEW OF STAGE TRANSMITTER AT ALTON, ILLINOIS MODEL SECTION, AND LOCK AND DAM (OLD #26) SIMULATOR. - Waterways Experiment Station, Hydraulics Laboratory, Halls Ferry Road, 2 miles south of I-20, Vicksburg, Warren County, MS

Preliminary potential-field constraints on the geometry of the San Fernando basin, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langenheim, V.E.; Griscom, Andrew; Jachens, R.C.; Hildenbrand, T.G.

2000-01-01

Gravity and magnetic data provide new insights on the structural underpinnings of the San Fernando Basin region, which may be important to ground motion models. Gravity data indicate that a deep basin (>5 km) underlies the northern part of the San Fernando Valley; this deep basin is required to explain the lowest gravity values over the Mission Hills thrust fault. Gravity modeling, constrained by well data and density information, shows that the basin may reach a thickness of 8 km, coinciding with the upper termination of the 1994 Northridge earthquake mainshock rupture. The basin is deeper than previous estimates by 2 to 4 km; this estimate is the result of high densities for the gravels of the Pliocene-Pleisocene Saugus Formation. The geometry of the southern margin of the deep basin is not well-constrained by the gravity data, but may dip to the south. Recently acquired seismic data along the LARSE (Los Angeles Regional Seismic Experiment) II profile may provide constraints to determine the location and attitude of the basin edge. Gravity and aeromagnetic models across the eastern margin of the San Fernando Valley indicate that the Verdugo fault may dip to the southwest along its southern extent and therefore have a normal fault geometry whereas it clearly has a thrust fault geometry along its northern strand.

A basin-scale approach for assessing water resources in a semiarid environment: San Diego region, California and Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.; Stolp, B.J.; Danskin, W.R.

2012-01-01

Many basins throughout the world have sparse hydrologic and geologic data, but have increasing demands for water and a commensurate need for integrated understanding of surface and groundwater resources. This paper demonstrates a methodology for using a distributed parameter water-balance model, gaged surface-water flow, and a reconnaissance-level groundwater flow model to develop a first-order water balance. Flow amounts are rounded to the nearest 5 million cubic meters per year. The San Diego River basin is 1 of 5 major drainage basins that drain to the San Diego coastal plain, the source of public water supply for the San Diego area. The distributed parameter water-balance model (Basin Characterization Model) was run at a monthly timestep for 1940–2009 to determine a median annual total water inflow of 120 million cubic meters per year for the San Diego region. The model was also run specifically for the San Diego River basin for 1982–2009 to provide constraints to model calibration and to evaluate the proportion of inflow that becomes groundwater discharge, resulting in a median annual total water inflow of 50 million cubic meters per year. On the basis of flow records for the San Diego River at Fashion Valley (US Geological Survey gaging station 11023000), when corrected for upper basin reservoir storage and imported water, the total is 30 million cubic meters per year. The difference between these two flow quantities defines the annual groundwater outflow from the San Diego River basin at 20 million cubic meters per year. These three flow components constitute a first-order water budget estimate for the San Diego River basin. The ratio of surface-water outflow and groundwater outflow to total water inflow are 0.6 and 0.4, respectively. Using total water inflow determined using the Basin Characterization Model for the entire San Diego region and the 0.4 partitioning factor, groundwater outflow from the San Diego region, through the coastal plain aquifer to the Pacific Ocean, is calculated to be approximately 50 million cubic meters per year. The area-scale assessment of water resources highlights several hydrologic features of the San Diego region. Groundwater recharge is episodic; the Basin Characterization Model output shows that 90 percent of simulated recharge occurred during 3 percent of the 1982–2009 period. The groundwater aquifer may also be quite permeable. A reconnaissance-level groundwater flow model for the San Diego River basin was used to check the water budget estimates, and the basic interaction of the surface-water and groundwater system, and the flow values, were found to be reasonable. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity values of the volcanic and metavolcanic bedrock in San Diego region range from 1 to 10 m per day. Overall, results establish an initial hydrologic assessment formulated on the basis of sparse hydrologic data. The described flow variability, extrapolation, and unique characteristics represent a realistic view of current (2012) hydrologic understanding for the San Diego region.

Landscape Based Modeling of Nonpoint Source Nitrogen Loading in the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garten, C.T.

2001-01-11

The objective of this research was to arrive at a quantitative and qualitative assessment of nonpoint sources of potential excess N under different land use/land cover (LULC) categories in the Neuse River Basin on a seasonal time scale. This assessment is being supplied to EPA's Landscape Characterization Branch, National Exposure Research Laboratory, in Research Triangle Park, NC, for inclusion in a hydrologic model to predict seasonal fluxes of N from the terrestrial landscape to surface receiving waters and groundwater in the Neuse River Basin. The analysis was performed in the following five steps: (1) development of a conceptual model tomore » predict potential excess N on land, (2) a literature review to parameterize N fluxes under LULC categories found in the Neuse River Basin, (3) acquisition of high resolution (15-m pixel) LULC data from EPA's Landscape Characterization Branch, National Exposure Research Laboratory, in Research Triangle Park, NC, (4) acquisition of a soil N inventory map for the Neuse River Basin, (5) calculations of potential excess N on a seasonal basis for the entire Neuse River Basin.« less

Digital Earth system based river basin data integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xin; Li, Wanqing; Lin, Chao

2014-12-01

Digital Earth is an integrated approach to build scientific infrastructure. The Digital Earth systems provide a three-dimensional visualization and integration platform for river basin data which include the management data, in situ observation data, remote sensing observation data and model output data. This paper studies the Digital Earth system based river basin data integration technology. Firstly, the construction of the Digital Earth based three-dimensional river basin data integration environment is discussed. Then the river basin management data integration technology is presented which is realized by general database access interface, web service and ActiveX control. Thirdly, the in situ data stored in database tables as records integration is realized with three-dimensional model of the corresponding observation apparatus display in the Digital Earth system by a same ID code. In the next two parts, the remote sensing data and the model output data integration technologies are discussed in detail. The application in the Digital Zhang River basin System of China shows that the method can effectively improve the using efficiency and visualization effect of the data.

Characterizing climate-change impacts on the 1.5-yr flood flow in selected basins across the United States: a probabilistic approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model was applied to basins in 14 different hydroclimatic regions to determine the sensitivity and variability of the freshwater resources of the United States in the face of current climate-change projections. Rather than attempting to choose a most likely scenario from the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an ensemble of climate simulations from five models under three emissions scenarios each was used to drive the basin models. Climate-change scenarios were generated for PRMS by modifying historical precipitation and temperature inputs; mean monthly climate change was derived by calculating changes in mean climates from current to various future decades in the ensemble of climate projections. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were fitted to the PRMS model output driven by the ensemble of climate projections and provided a basis for randomly (but representatively) generating realizations of hydrologic response to future climates. For each realization, the 1.5-yr flood was calculated to represent a flow important for sediment transport and channel geomorphology. The empirical probability density function (pdf) of the 1.5-yr flood was estimated using the results across the realizations for each basin. Of the 14 basins studied, 9 showed clear temporal shifts in the pdfs of the 1.5-yr flood projected into the twenty-first century. In the western United States, where the annual peak discharges are heavily influenced by snowmelt, three basins show at least a 10% increase in the 1.5-yr flood in the twenty-first century; the remaining two basins demonstrate increases in the 1.5-yr flood, but the temporal shifts in the pdfs and the percent changes are not as distinct. Four basins in the eastern Rockies/central United States show at least a 10% decrease in the 1.5-yr flood; the remaining two basins demonstrate decreases in the 1.5-yr flood, but the temporal shifts in the pdfs and the percent changes are not as distinct. Two basins in the eastern United States show at least a 10% decrease in the 1.5-yr flood; the remaining basin shows little or no change in the 1.5-yr flood.

Hydrogeologic Framework of the Upper Santa Cruz Basin (Arizona and Sonora) using Well Logs, Geologic Mapping, Gravity, Magnetics, and Electromagnetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callegary, J. B.; Page, W. R.; Megdal, S.; Gray, F.; Scott, C. A.; Berry, M.; Rangel, M.; Oroz Ramos, L.; Menges, C. M.; Jones, A.

2011-12-01

In 2006, the U.S. Congress passed the U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Act which provides a framework for study of aquifers shared by the United States and Mexico. The aquifer of the Upper Santa Cruz Basin was chosen as one of four priority aquifers for several reasons, including water scarcity, a population greater than 300,000, groundwater as the sole source of water for human use, and a riparian corridor that is of regional significance for migratory birds and other animals. Several new mines are also being proposed for this area which may affect water quality and availability. To date, a number of studies have been carried out by a binational team composed of the U.S. Geological Survey, the Mexican National Water Commission, and the Universities of Arizona and Sonora. Construction of a cross-border hydrogeologic framework model of the basin between Amado, Arizona and its southern boundary in Sonora is currently a high priority. The relatively narrow Santa Cruz valley is a structural basin that did not experience the same degree of late Cenozoic lateral extension and consequent deepening as found in other basin-and-range alluvial basins, such as the Tucson basin, where basin depth exceeds 3000 meters. This implies that storage may be much less than that found in other basin-and-range aquifers. To investigate the geometry of the basin and facies changes within the alluvium, a database of over one thousand well logs has been developed, geologic mapping and transient electromagnetic (TEM) surveys have been carried out, and information from previous electromagnetic, magnetic, and gravity studies is being incorporated into the hydrogeologic framework. Initial geophysical surveys and analyses have focused on the portion of the basin west of Nogales, Arizona, because it supplies approximately 50% of that city's water. Previous gravity and magnetic modeling indicate that this area is a narrow, fault-controlled half graben. Preliminary modeling of airborne and ground-based transient electromagnetic surveys corroborates earlier conclusions from the gravity modeling that depth to bedrock is greater than 500 meters in some locations. Results from other portions of the study area including Mexico are still being evaluated and incorporated into the three-dimensional hydrologic framework which will ultimately be used to construct a groundwater flow model.

Characteristic mega-basin water storage behavior using GRACE.

PubMed

Reager, J T; Famiglietti, James S

2013-06-01

[1] A long-standing challenge for hydrologists has been a lack of observational data on global-scale basin hydrological behavior. With observations from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, hydrologists are now able to study terrestrial water storage for large river basins (>200,000 km 2 ), with monthly time resolution. Here we provide results of a time series model of basin-averaged GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly and Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation for the world's largest basins. We address the short (10 year) length of the GRACE record by adopting a parametric spectral method to calculate frequency-domain transfer functions of storage response to precipitation forcing and then generalize these transfer functions based on large-scale basin characteristics, such as percent forest cover and basin temperature. Among the parameters tested, results show that temperature, soil water-holding capacity, and percent forest cover are important controls on relative storage variability, while basin area and mean terrain slope are less important. The derived empirical relationships were accurate (0.54 ≤  E f  ≤ 0.84) in modeling global-scale water storage anomaly time series for the study basins using only precipitation, average basin temperature, and two land-surface variables, offering the potential for synthesis of basin storage time series beyond the GRACE observational period. Such an approach could be applied toward gap filling between current and future GRACE missions and for predicting basin storage given predictions of future precipitation.

Characteristic mega-basin water storage behavior using GRACE

PubMed Central

Reager, J T; Famiglietti, James S

2013-01-01

[1] A long-standing challenge for hydrologists has been a lack of observational data on global-scale basin hydrological behavior. With observations from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, hydrologists are now able to study terrestrial water storage for large river basins (>200,000 km2), with monthly time resolution. Here we provide results of a time series model of basin-averaged GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly and Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation for the world’s largest basins. We address the short (10 year) length of the GRACE record by adopting a parametric spectral method to calculate frequency-domain transfer functions of storage response to precipitation forcing and then generalize these transfer functions based on large-scale basin characteristics, such as percent forest cover and basin temperature. Among the parameters tested, results show that temperature, soil water-holding capacity, and percent forest cover are important controls on relative storage variability, while basin area and mean terrain slope are less important. The derived empirical relationships were accurate (0.54 ≤ Ef ≤ 0.84) in modeling global-scale water storage anomaly time series for the study basins using only precipitation, average basin temperature, and two land-surface variables, offering the potential for synthesis of basin storage time series beyond the GRACE observational period. Such an approach could be applied toward gap filling between current and future GRACE missions and for predicting basin storage given predictions of future precipitation. PMID:24563556

Historical Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of the Ponto-Caspian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koriche, Sifan A.; Singarayer, Joy S.; Coe, Michael T.; Nandini, Sri; Prange, Matthias; Cloke, Hannah; Lunt, Dan

2017-04-01

The Ponto-Caspian basin is one of the largest basins globally, composed of a closed basin (Caspian Sea) and open basins connecting to the global ocean (Black and Azov Sea). Over the historical time period (1850-present) Caspian Sea levels have varied between -25 and -29mbsl (Arpe et al., 2012), resulting in considerable changes to the area of the lake (currently 371,000 km2). Given projections of future climate change and the importance of the Caspian Sea for fisheries, agriculture, and industry, it is vital to understand how sea levels may vary in the future. Hydrological models can be used to assess the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes for future forecasts. However, it is critical to first evaluate such models using observational data for the present and recent past, and to understand the key hydrological processes driving past changes in sea level. In this study, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model (THMB) (Coe, 2000, 2002) is applied and evaluated to investigate the hydrological processes of the Ponto-Caspian basin for the historical period 1900 to 2000. The model has been forced using observational reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-20) and historical climate model data outputs (from CESM and HadCM3 models) to investigate the variability in the Caspian Sea level and the major river discharges. We examine the differences produced by driving the hydrological model with reanalysis data or climate models. We evaluate the model performance compared to observational discharge measurements and Caspian Sea level data. Secondly, we investigated the sensitivity of historical Caspian Sea level variations to different aspects of climate changes to examine the most important processes involved over this time period.

Petroleum generation and migration in the Mesopotamian Basin and Zagros fold belt of Iraq: Results from a basin-modeling study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pitman, Janet K.; Steinshouer, D.; Lewan, M.D.

2004-01-01

A regional 3-D total petroleum-system model was developed to evaluate petroleum generation and migration histories in the Mesopotamian Basin and Zagros fold belt in Iraq. The modeling was undertaken in conjunction with Middle East petroleum assessment studies conducted by the USGS. Regional structure maps, isopach and facies maps, and thermal maturity data were used as input to the model. The oil-generation potential of Jurassic source-rocks, the principal known source of the petroleum in Jurassic, Cretaceous, and Tertiary reservoirs in these regions, was modeled using hydrous pyrolysis (Type II-S) kerogen kinetics. Results showed that oil generation in source rocks commenced in the Late Cretaceous in intrashelf basins, peak expulsion took place in the late Miocene and Pliocene when these depocenters had expanded along the Zagros foredeep trend, and generation ended in the Holocene when deposition in the foredeep ceased. The model indicates that, at present, the majority of Jurassic source rocks in Iraq have reached or exceeded peak oil generation and most rocks have completed oil generation and expulsion. Flow-path simulations demonstrate that virtually all oil and gas fields in the Mesopotamian Basin and Zagros fold belt overlie mature Jurassic source rocks (vertical migration dominated) and are situated on, or close to, modeled migration pathways. Fields closest to modeled pathways associated with source rocks in local intrashelf basins were charged earliest from Late Cretaceous through the middle Miocene, and other fields filled later when compression-related traps were being formed. Model results confirm petroleum migration along major, northwest-trending folds and faults, and oil migration loss at the surface.

Hydrological Simulation of Flood Events At Large Basins Using Distributed Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vélez, J.; Vélez, I.; Puricelli, M.; Francés, F.

Recent advances in technology allows to the scientist community advance in new pro- cedures in order to reduce the risk associated to flood events. A conceptual distributed model has been implemented to simulate the hydrological processes involved during floods. The model has been named TETIS. The basin is divided into rectangular cells, all of them connected according to the network drainage. The rainfall-runoff process is modelled using four linked tanks at each cell with different outflow relationships at each tank, which represent the ET, direct runoff, interflow and base flow, respectively. The routing along the channel network has been proposed using basin geomorpho- logic characteristics coupled to the cinematic wave procedure. The vertical movement along the cell is proposed using simple relationships based on soil properties as field capacity and the saturated hydraulic conductivities, which were previously obtained using land use, litology, edaphology and basin properties maps. The different vertical proccesses along the cell included are: capillar storage, infiltration, percolation and underground losses. Finally, snowmelting and reservoir routing has been included. TETIS has been implemented in the flood warning system of the Tagus River, with a basin of 59 200 km2. The time discretization of the input data is 15 minutes, and the cell size is 500x500 m. The basic parameter maps were estimated for the entire basin, and a calibration and validation processes were performed using some recorded events in the upper part of the basin. Calibration confirmed the initial parameter estimation. Additionally, the validation in time and space showed the robustness of these types of models

Evaluation of gridded snow water equivalent and satellite snow cover products for mountain basins in a hydrologic model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dressler, K.A.; Leavesley, G.H.; Bales, R.C.; Fassnacht, S.R.

2006-01-01

The USGS precipitation-runoff modelling system (PRMS) hydrologic model was used to evaluate experimental, gridded, 1 km2 snow-covered area (SCA) and snow water equivalent (SWE) products for two headwater basins within the Rio Grande (i.e. upper Rio Grande River basin) and Salt River (i.e. Black River basin) drainages in the southwestern USA. The SCA product was the fraction of each 1 km2 pixel covered by snow and was derived from NOAA advanced very high-resolution radiometer imagery. The SWE product was developed by multiplying the SCA product by SWE estimates interpolated from National Resources Conservation Service snow telemetry point measurements for a 6 year period (1995-2000). Measured SCA and SWE estimates were consistently lower than values estimated from temperature and precipitation within PRMS. The greatest differences occurred in the relatively complex terrain of the Rio Grande basin, as opposed to the relatively homogeneous terrain of the Black River basin, where differences were small. Differences between modelled and measured snow were different for the accumulation period versus the ablation period and had an elevational trend. Assimilating the measured snowfields into a version of PRMS calibrated to achieve water balance without assimilation led to reduced performance in estimating streamflow for the Rio Grande and increased performance in estimating streamflow for the Black River basin. Correcting the measured SCA and SWE for canopy effects improved simulations by adding snow mostly in the mid-to-high elevations, where satellite estimates of SCA are lower than model estimates. Copyright ?? 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

New constraints on Neogene uplift of the northern Colorado Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Wijk, J. W.; Raschilla, R.

2013-12-01

The Late Cretaceous Uinta Basin is located in northeastern Utah within the northern most portion of the Colorado Plateau. The basin's uplift and subsidence history and thermal evolution have impacted the maturity of source beds in the Parachute Creek Member of the Green River Formation. Using measured data of the petroleum system of the Uinta Basin, we were able to constrain timing and amplitude of uplift of the northern Colorado Plateau. We used sixty wells in a basin modeling study of the Uinta Basin's thermal structure, tectonic history and petroleum system. The wells reached into basement, and four wells provided vitrinite reflectance measurements. Vitrinite reflectance is a measurement of the percentage of reflected light from a polished vitrinite sample. The percentage of reflected light is related to the temperature conditions the sample experienced during burial, and vitrinite reflectance is a maturity indicator that covers a broad temperature range from diagenesis through the latest stages of catagenesis and records the maximum temperature a rock experiences during its burial history All models were calibrated to measured data, including vitrinite reflectance and transformation ratios from Rock-Eval pyrolysis. The models predict that the heat flow ranges from 65 mW/m2 to 45 mW/m2 from south to north in the study area. Additionally, model calibration provides a means for estimating the amount of uplift and erosion in the Uinta Basin. Uplift predicted for the Uinta Basin ranges from ~2050 m to ~2200 m and started in the Late Miocene. Our models also predicted the maturity of the rich oil shales of the Parachute Creek Member.

Simulation of dissolved nutrient export from the Dongjiang river basin with a grid-based NEWS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Qiangqiang; Su, Meirong; Yang, Zhifeng; Cai, Yanpeng; Yue, Wencong; Dang, Zhi

2018-06-01

In this research, a grid-based NEWS model was proposed through coupling the geographic information system (GIS) with the Global NEWS model framework. The model was then applied to the Dongjiang River basin to simulate the dissolved nutrient export from this area. The model results showed that the total amounts of the dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus exported from the Dongjiang River basin were approximately 27154.87 and 1389.33 t, respectively. 90 % of the two loads were inorganic forms (i.e. dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus, DIN and DIP). Also, the nutrient export loads did not evenly distributed in the basin. The main stream watershed of the Dongjiang River basin has the largest DIN and DIP export loads, while the largest dissolved organic nitrogen and phosphorus (DON and DOP) loads were observed in the middle and upper stream watersheds of the basin, respectively. As for the nutrient exported from each subbasin, different sources had different influences on the output of each nutrient form. For the DIN load in each subbasin, fertilization application, atmospheric deposition and biological fixation were the three main contributors, while eluviation was the most important source for DON. In terms of DIP load, fertilizer application and breeding wastewater were the main contributors, while eluviation and fertilizer application were the two main sources for DOP.

Real-world hydrologic assessment of a fully-distributed hydrological model in a parallel computing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivoni, Enrique R.; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Mniszewski, Susan; Fasel, Patricia; Springer, Everett P.; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Bras, Rafael L.

2011-10-01

SummaryA major challenge in the use of fully-distributed hydrologic models has been the lack of computational capabilities for high-resolution, long-term simulations in large river basins. In this study, we present the parallel model implementation and real-world hydrologic assessment of the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS). Our parallelization approach is based on the decomposition of a complex watershed using the channel network as a directed graph. The resulting sub-basin partitioning divides effort among processors and handles hydrologic exchanges across boundaries. Through numerical experiments in a set of nested basins, we quantify parallel performance relative to serial runs for a range of processors, simulation complexities and lengths, and sub-basin partitioning methods, while accounting for inter-run variability on a parallel computing system. In contrast to serial simulations, the parallel model speed-up depends on the variability of hydrologic processes. Load balancing significantly improves parallel speed-up with proportionally faster runs as simulation complexity (domain resolution and channel network extent) increases. The best strategy for large river basins is to combine a balanced partitioning with an extended channel network, with potential savings through a lower TIN resolution. Based on these advances, a wider range of applications for fully-distributed hydrologic models are now possible. This is illustrated through a set of ensemble forecasts that account for precipitation uncertainty derived from a statistical downscaling model.

Balancing Ground-Water Withdrawals and Streamflow in the Hunt-Annaquatucket-Pettaquamscutt Basin, Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barlow, Paul M.; Dickerman, David C.

2001-01-01

Ground water withdrawn for water supply reduces streamflow in the Hunt-Annaquatucket-Pettaquamscutt Basin in Rhode Island. These reductions may adversely affect aquatic habitats. A hydrologic model was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Rhode Island Water Resources Board, Town of North Kingstown, Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management, and Rhode Island Economic Development Corporation to aid water-resource planning in the basin. Results of the model provide information that helps water suppliers and natural-resource managers evaluate strategies for balancing ground-water development and streamflow reductions in the basin.

Tectonic evolution of the Arizaro basin of the Puna plateau, NW Argentina: Implications for plateau-scale processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyd, John D.

Sedimentary basins of the Altiplano-Puna Plateau within the Andean Plateau in South America contain the record of retro-arc foreland basin evolution during the Cenozoic. The deformation of these basins is characterized by high angle reverse faults and thrusts deforming crystalline basement and sedimentary covers. The mechanism/s responsible for deformation within the region are not fully understood in detail. The relative abundance of intercalated tuffs within these basins and those within the bounding Eastern Cordillera enables the spatial-temporal pattern of deformation across the orogen to be constrained. This study uses the systematic combination of structural, geochronologic and sedimentalogical techniques applied to Cenozoic sedimentary rocks within the Arizaro Basin to investigate the timing of deformation across within the region in order to test two end member models for basin deformation in response to lithospheric processes. The first model attributes the deformation of the basins to internal deformation within an orogenic wedge as part of the taper building process required prior to propagation eastward towards the foreland basin system. The second model attributes basin deformation to isostatic adjustments resulting from small-scale lithospheric foundering. Detailed geologic mapping of the Arizaro Basin reveals a complex interplay of coeval thick-skinned and thin-skinned deformation, which deforms the thick Miocene succession of fluvial-lacustrine strata in both a brittle and ductile manner. Zircon U-Pb analyses of intercalated tuffs from the Vizcachera Formation reveal that approximately three km of the section was deposited between the Early Miocene (ca. 18.3) and the Middle Miocene (ca. 13.9). One tuff in the uppermost Vizcachera Formation constrains the lower limit of timing of deformation for the Arizaro Basin to be 13.9 +/- 0.7 Ma. When combined with published geochronological data across the Puna Plateau and Eastern Cordillera, the new data presented in this study constrains timing of deformation within the basin and the greater Arizaro area to the Middle Miocene. This study also indicates that the spatial-temporal patterns of deformation are likely the result of a combination of both models mentioned above with critical taper theory dominating early deformation associated with basin formation and small-scale lithospheric foundering dominating the later deformation in the Middle Miocene. Deformation at the wedge tip continues in the Eastern Cordillera seemingly without interruption, suggesting that the effects of the isostatic pull-down associated with small-scale lithospheric foundering is localized and does not significantly affect the taper of the orogenic wedge as a whole. Thus, allowing the normal cycle of orogenic wedge propagation to occur, uninhibited.

SimBasin: serious gaming for integrated decision-making in the Magdalena-Cauca basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craven, Joanne; Angarita, Hector; Corzo, Gerald

2016-04-01

The Magdalena-Cauca macrobasin covers 24% of the land area of Colombia, and provides more than half of the country's economic potential. The basin is also home a large proportion of Colombia's biodiversity. These conflicting demands have led to problems in the basin, including a dramatic fall in fish populations, additional flooding (such as the severe nationwide floods caused by the La Niña phenomenon in 2011), and habitat loss. It is generally believed that the solution to these conflicts is to manage the basin in a more integrated way, and bridge the gaps between decision-makers in different sectors and scientists. To this end, inter-ministerial agreements are being formulated and a decision support system is being developed by The Nature Conservancy Colombia. To engage stakeholders in this process SimBasin, a "serious game", has been developed. It is intended to act as a catalyst for bringing stakeholders together, an illustration of the uncertainties, relationships and feedbacks in the basin, and an accessible introduction to modelling and decision support for non-experts. During the game, groups of participants are led through a 30 year future development of the basin, during which they take decisions about the development of the basin and see the impacts on four different sectors: agriculture, hydropower, flood risk, and environment. These impacts are displayed through seven indicators, which players should try to maintain above critical thresholds. To communicate the effects of uncertainty and climate variability, players see the actual value of the indicator and also a band of possible values, so they can see if their decisions have actually reduced risk or if they just "got lucky". The game works as a layer on top of a WEAP water resources model of the basin, adapted from a basin-wide model already created, so the fictional game basin is conceptually similar to the Magdalena-Cauca basin. The game is freely available online, and new applications are being discussed, such as using the game in planning processes and to engage local communities. The game has been beta tested at a modelling workshop in Bangkok and was then used as the basis of a national basin management forum in Bogotá. 42 high-level stakeholders attended and the session generated a great deal of interest in the decision support system, and served as a nucleus for different stakeholders to discuss ideas. The study discusses the development of the game and observations from these sessions. More information: http://simbasin.hilab.nl

Development of an information data base for watershed monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, A. Y.; Blackwell, R. J.

1980-01-01

Landsat multispectral scanner data, Defense Mapping Agency digital terrain data, conventional maps, and ground data were integrated to create a comprehensive information data base (the Image Based Information System), to monitor the water quality of the Lake Tahoe Basin. Landsat imagery was used as the planimetric base to which all other data were registered. A georeference image plane, which provided an interface between all data planes for the Lake Tahoe Basin data base, was created from the drainage basin map. The data base was used to extract each drainage basin for separate display. The Defense Mapping Agency-created elevation image was processed with VICAR software to produce a component representing slope magnitude, which was cross-tabulated with the drainage basin georeference table. Future applications of the data base include the development of precipitation modeling, surface runoff models, and classification of drainage basin cover types.

Investigation of possible effects of surface coal mining on hydrology and landscape stability in part of the Powder River structural basin, northeastern Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bloyd, R.M.; Daddow, P.B.; Jordon, P.R.; Lowham, H.W.

1986-01-01

The effects of surface coal mining on the surface- and groundwater systems in a 5,400 sq mi area in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming, that includes 20 major coal mines were evaluated using three approaches: A surface water model, a landscape-stability analysis, and a groundwater model. A surface water model was developed for the Belle Fourche River basin. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran model was used to simulate changes in streamflow and changes in dissolved-solids and sulfate concentrations. Simulated streamflows resulting from less than average rainfall were small, changes in flow from premining to during-mining and postmining conditions were less than 2.5%, and changes in mean dissolved-solids and sulfate concentrations ranged from 1 to 7%. A landscape-stability analysis resulted in regression relations to aid in the reconstruction of reclaimed drainage networks. Hypsometric analyses indicate the larger basins are relatively stable, and statistical data from these basins may be used to design the placement of material within a mined basin to approximate natural, stable landscapes in the area. The attempt to define and simulate the groundwater system in the area using a groundwater-flow model was unsuccessful. The steady-state groundwater-flow model could not be calibrated. The modeling effort failed principally because of insufficient quantity and quality of data to define the spatial distribution of aquifer properties; the hydraulic-head distribution within and between aquifers; and the rates of groundwater recharge and discharge, especially for steady-state conditions. (USGS)

Calibration and verification of a rainfall-runoff model and a runoff-quality model for several urban basins in the Denver metropolitan area, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindner-Lunsford, J. B.; Ellis, S.R.

1984-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey 's Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model--Version II was calibrated and verified for five urban basins in the Denver metropolitan area. Land-use types in the basins were light commerical, multifamily housing, single-family housing, and a shopping center. The overall accuracy of model predictions of peak flows and runoff volumes was about 15 percent for storms with rainfall intensities of less than 1 inch per hour and runoff volume of greater than 0.01 inch. Predictions generally were unsatisfactory for storm having a rainfall intensity of more than 1 inch per hour, or runoff of 0.01 inch or less. The Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model-Quality, a multievent runoff-quality model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, was calibrated and verified on four basins. The model was found to be most useful in the prediction of seasonal loads of constituents in the runoff resulting from rainfall. The model was not very accurate in the prediction of runoff loads of individual constituents. (USGS)

Assimilation of Terrestrial Water Storage from GRACE in a Snow-Dominated Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forman, Barton A.; Reichle, R. H.; Rodell, M.

2011-01-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) information derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measurements is assimilated into a land surface model over the Mackenzie River basin located in northwest Canada. Assimilation is conducted using an ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS). Model estimates with and without assimilation are compared against independent observational data sets of snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff. For SWE, modest improvements in mean difference (MD) and root mean squared difference (RMSD) are achieved as a result of the assimilation. No significant differences in temporal correlations of SWE resulted. Runoff statistics of MD remain relatively unchanged while RMSD statistics, in general, are improved in most of the sub-basins. Temporal correlations are degraded within the most upstream sub-basin, but are, in general, improved at the downstream locations, which are more representative of an integrated basin response. GRACE assimilation using an EnKS offers improvements in hydrologic state/flux estimation, though comparisons with observed runoff would be enhanced by the use of river routing and lake storage routines within the prognostic land surface model. Further, GRACE hydrology products would benefit from the inclusion of better constrained models of post-glacial rebound, which significantly affects GRACE estimates of interannual hydrologic variability in the Mackenzie River basin.

Simulating land-use changes and stormwater-detention basins and evaluating their effect on peak streamflows and stream-water quality in Irondequoit Creek basin, New York—A user's manual for HSPF and GenScn

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.

2003-01-01

A computer model of hydrologic and water-quality processes of the Irondequoit Creek basin in Monroe and Ontario Counties, N.Y., was developed during 2000-02 to enable water-resources managers to simulate the effects of future development and stormwater-detention basins on peak flows and water quality of Irondequoit Creek and its tributaries. The model was developed with the program Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) such that proposed or hypothetical land-use changes and instream stormwater-detention basins could be simulated, and their effects on peak flows and loads of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, ammonia-plus-organic nitrogen, and nitrate-plus-nitrite nitrogen could be analyzed, through an interactive computer program known as Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios for Watersheds (GenScn). This report is a user's manual written to guide the Irondequoit Creek Watershed Collaborative in (1) the creation of land-use and flow-detention scenarios for simulation by the HSPF model, and (2) the use of GenScn to analyze the results of these simulations. These analyses can, in turn, aid the group in making basin-wide water-resources-management decisions.

Mapping monkeypox transmission risk through time and space in the Congo Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nakazawa, Yoshinori J.; Lash, R. Ryan; Carroll, Darin S.; Damon, Inger K.; Karem, Kevin L.; Reynolds, Mary G.; Osorio, Jorge E.; Rocke, Tonie E.; Malekani, Jean; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Formenty, Pierre; Peterson, A. Townsend

2013-01-01

Monkeypox is a major public health concern in the Congo Basin area, with changing patterns of human case occurrences reported in recent years. Whether this trend results from better surveillance and detection methods, reduced proportions of vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated human populations, or changing environmental conditions remains unclear. Our objective is to examine potential correlations between environment and transmission of monkeypox events in the Congo Basin. We created ecological niche models based on human cases reported in the Congo Basin by the World Health Organization at the end of the smallpox eradication campaign, in relation to remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index datasets from the same time period. These models predicted independent spatial subsets of monkeypox occurrences with high confidence; models were then projected onto parallel environmental datasets for the 2000s to create present-day monkeypox suitability maps. Recent trends in human monkeypox infection are associated with broad environmental changes across the Congo Basin. Our results demonstrate that ecological niche models provide useful tools for identification of areas suitable for transmission, even for poorly-known diseases like monkeypox.

Combining Mechanistic Approaches for Studying Eco-Hydro-Geomorphic Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francipane, A.; Ivanov, V.; Akutina, Y.; Noto, V.; Istanbullouglu, E.

2008-12-01

Vegetation interacts with hydrology and geomorphic form and processes of a river basin in profound ways. Despite recent advances in hydrological modeling, the dynamic coupling between these processes is yet to be adequately captured at the basin scale to elucidate key features of process interaction and their role in the organization of vegetation and landscape morphology. In this study, we present a blueprint for integrating a geomorphic component into the physically-based, spatially distributed ecohydrological model, tRIBS- VEGGIE, which reproduces essential water and energy processes over the complex topography of a river basin and links them to the basic plant life regulatory processes. We present a preliminary design of the integrated modeling framework in which hillslope and channel erosion processes at the catchment scale, will be coupled with vegetation-hydrology dynamics. We evaluate the developed framework by applying the integrated model to Lucky Hills basin, a sub-catchment of the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (Arizona). The evaluation is carried out by comparing sediment yields at the basin outlet, that follows a detailed verification of simulated land-surface energy partition, biomass dynamics, and soil moisture states.

Mapping monkeypox transmission risk through time and space in the Congo Basin.

PubMed

Nakazawa, Yoshinori; Lash, R Ryan; Carroll, Darin S; Damon, Inger K; Karem, Kevin L; Reynolds, Mary G; Osorio, Jorge E; Rocke, Tonie E; Malekani, Jean M; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Formenty, Pierre; Peterson, A Townsend

2013-01-01

Monkeypox is a major public health concern in the Congo Basin area, with changing patterns of human case occurrences reported in recent years. Whether this trend results from better surveillance and detection methods, reduced proportions of vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated human populations, or changing environmental conditions remains unclear. Our objective is to examine potential correlations between environment and transmission of monkeypox events in the Congo Basin. We created ecological niche models based on human cases reported in the Congo Basin by the World Health Organization at the end of the smallpox eradication campaign, in relation to remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index datasets from the same time period. These models predicted independent spatial subsets of monkeypox occurrences with high confidence; models were then projected onto parallel environmental datasets for the 2000s to create present-day monkeypox suitability maps. Recent trends in human monkeypox infection are associated with broad environmental changes across the Congo Basin. Our results demonstrate that ecological niche models provide useful tools for identification of areas suitable for transmission, even for poorly-known diseases like monkeypox.

Mapping Monkeypox Transmission Risk through Time and Space in the Congo Basin

PubMed Central

Nakazawa, Yoshinori; Lash, R. Ryan; Carroll, Darin S.; Damon, Inger K.; Karem, Kevin L.; Reynolds, Mary G.; Osorio, Jorge E.; Rocke, Tonie E.; Malekani, Jean M.; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Formenty, Pierre; Peterson, A. Townsend

2013-01-01

Monkeypox is a major public health concern in the Congo Basin area, with changing patterns of human case occurrences reported in recent years. Whether this trend results from better surveillance and detection methods, reduced proportions of vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated human populations, or changing environmental conditions remains unclear. Our objective is to examine potential correlations between environment and transmission of monkeypox events in the Congo Basin. We created ecological niche models based on human cases reported in the Congo Basin by the World Health Organization at the end of the smallpox eradication campaign, in relation to remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index datasets from the same time period. These models predicted independent spatial subsets of monkeypox occurrences with high confidence; models were then projected onto parallel environmental datasets for the 2000s to create present-day monkeypox suitability maps. Recent trends in human monkeypox infection are associated with broad environmental changes across the Congo Basin. Our results demonstrate that ecological niche models provide useful tools for identification of areas suitable for transmission, even for poorly-known diseases like monkeypox. PMID:24040344

46. MISSISSIPPI BASIN MODEL AT CLINTON SUBSTATION. DETAIL OF INFLOW ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

46. MISSISSIPPI BASIN MODEL AT CLINTON SUBSTATION. DETAIL OF INFLOW CONTROLLER WITH ORIGINAL CAPACITOR BANK. - Waterways Experiment Station, Hydraulics Laboratory, Halls Ferry Road, 2 miles south of I-20, Vicksburg, Warren County, MS

Using satellite-based rainfall estimates for streamflow modelling: Bagmati Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shrestha, M.S.; Artan, Guleid A.; Bajracharya, S.R.; Sharma, R. R.

2008-01-01

In this study, we have described a hydrologic modelling system that uses satellite-based rainfall estimates and weather forecast data for the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal. The hydrologic model described is the US Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM). The GeoSFM is a spatially semidistributed, physically based hydrologic model. We have used the GeoSFM to estimate the streamflow of the Bagmati Basin at Pandhera Dovan hydrometric station. To determine the hydrologic connectivity, we have used the USGS Hydro1k DEM dataset. The model was forced by daily estimates of rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from weather model data. The rainfall estimates used for the modelling are those produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre and observed at ground rain gauge stations. The model parameters were estimated from globally available soil and land cover datasets – the Digital Soil Map of the World by FAO and the USGS Global Land Cover dataset. The model predicted the daily streamflow at Pandhera Dovan gauging station. The comparison of the simulated and observed flows at Pandhera Dovan showed that the GeoSFM model performed well in simulating the flows of the Bagmati Basin.

Regional Landscape Response to Wedge-Top Basin Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruetenik, G.; Moucha, R.; Hoke, G. D.; Val, P.

2017-12-01

Wedge-top basins are the result of regionally variable uplift along thrust faults downstream of a mountain range and provide an ideal environment to study the regional stream and surface response to local variations in rock uplift. In this study, we simulate the formation and evolution of a wedge-top basin using a landscape evolution model. In line with a previous study, we find that during deformation in the fold-and-thrust belt adjacent to a wedge-top basin, both channel slope and erosion rates are reduced, and these changes propagate as a wave of low erosion into the uplands. For a uniform background uplift rate, this reduced rate of erosion results in a net surface uplift and a decreased slope within and upstream of the wedge-top basin. Following the eventual breach of the basin's bounding thrust belt, a wave of high erosion propagates through the basin and increases the channel slope. We expand upon previous studies by testing our model against a wide range of model parameters, although in general we find that the onset of increased erosion can be delayed by up to several million years. The amount of surface uplift is highly dependent on flexural isostasy and therefore it is heavily influenced by the elastic thickness and erodbility parameters. Observed paleoerosion rates in a paired wedge-top foreland sequence in the Argentine Precordillera reveal similar histories of paleo-erosion, and present day stream profiles show evidence that support model outcomes.

Leveraging Somali Basin Magnetic Anomalies to Constrain Gondwana Breakup and Early Indian Ocean Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, J. K.; Lawver, L. A.; Norton, I. O.; Gahagan, L.

2015-12-01

The Somali Basin, found between the Horn of Africa and Madagascar was formed during the rifting of East and West Gondwana. Understanding the evolution of the basin has historically been hindered by enigmatic seafloor fabric and an apparent paucity of magnetic anomaly data. Recent iterations of satellite gravity data have revealed nearly complete fracture zones as well as a distinct extinct spreading ridge within the basin. Through a thorough compilation of available Somali Basin shiptrack profiles, we have been able to successfully model and interpret magnetic anomalies with exceptional detail. This complication is unrivaled in completeness and provides unprecedented insight into basin formation. Using this high quality data, we have interpreted magnetic anomalies M0r (120.8 Ma) to M24Bn (152.43 Ma) about the extinct ridge. The interpreted Somali Basin spreading rate and spreading direction, through anomaly M15n (135.76 Ma), are similar to those observed in the neighboring coeval Mozambique Basin. This similarity suggests that East Gondwana separated from West Gondwana as a cohesive unit, and that the internal rifting of East Gondwana began later around 135 Ma. Our magnetic anomaly interpretations have been combined with additional magnetic interpretations from around the Indian Ocean to build a regionally consistent plate model of Gondwana breakup and early Indian Ocean formation. This plate model will be crucial for future efforts unraveling a precise history of East Gondwana fragmentation and constraining the formation of the Enderby Basin offshore East Antarctica and Bay of Bengal offshore East India.

Simulating the potential effects of climate change in two Colorado basins and at two Colorado ski areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steve

2011-01-01

The mountainous areas of Colorado are used for tourism and recreation, and they provide water storage and supply for municipalities, industries, and agriculture. Recent studies suggest that water supply and tourist industries such as skiing are at risk from climate change. In this study, a distributed-parameter watershed model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), is used to identify the potential effects of future climate on hydrologic conditions for two Colorado basins, the East River at Almont and the Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, and at the subbasin scale for two ski areas within those basins.Climate-change input files for PRMS were generated by modifying daily PRMS precipitation and temperature inputs with mean monthly climate-change fields of precipitation and temperature derived from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations using one current and three future carbon emission scenarios. All GCM simulations of mean daily minimum and maximum air temperature for the East and Yampa River basins indicate a relatively steady increase of up to several degrees Celsius from baseline conditions by 2094. GCM simulations of precipitation in the two basins indicate little change or trend in precipitation, but there is a large range associated with these projections. PRMS projections of basin mean daily streamflow vary by scenario but indicate a central tendency toward slight decreases, with a large range associated with these projections.Decreases in water content or changes in the spatial extent of snowpack in the East and Yampa River basins are important because of potential adverse effects on water supply and recreational activities. PRMS projections of each future scenario indicate a central tendency for decreases in basin mean snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent, with the range in the projected decreases increasing with time. However, when examined on a monthly basis, the projected decreases are most dramatic during fall and spring. Presumably, ski area locations are picked because of a tendency to receive snow and keep snowpack relative to the surrounding area. This effect of ski area location within the basin was examined by comparing projections of March snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent for the entire basin with more local projections for the portion of the basin that represents the ski area in the PRMS models. These projections indicate a steady decrease in March snow-covered area for the basins but only small changes in March snow-covered area at both ski areas for the three future scenarios until around 2050. After 2050, larger decreases are possible, but there is a large range in the projections of future scenarios. The rates of decrease for snowpack water equivalent and precipitation that falls as snow are similar at the basin and subbasin scale in both basins. Results from this modeling effort show that there is a wide range of possible outcomes for future snowpack conditions in Colorado. The results also highlight the differences between projections for entire basins and projections for local areas or subbasins within those basins.

New insight on petroleum system modeling of Ghadames basin, Libya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bora, Deepender; Dubey, Siddharth

2015-12-01

Underdown and Redfern (2008) performed a detailed petroleum system modeling of the Ghadames basin along an E-W section. However, hydrocarbon generation, migration and accumulation changes significantly across the basin due to complex geological history. Therefore, a single section can't be considered representative for the whole basin. This study aims at bridging this gap by performing petroleum system modeling along a N-S section and provides new insights on source rock maturation, generation and migration of the hydrocarbons using 2D basin modeling. This study in conjunction with earlier work provides a 3D context of petroleum system modeling in the Ghadames basin. Hydrocarbon generation from the lower Silurian Tanezzuft formation and the Upper Devonian Aouinet Ouenine started during the late Carboniferous. However, high subsidence rate during middle to late Cretaceous and elevated heat flow in Cenozoic had maximum impact on source rock transformation and hydrocarbon generation whereas large-scale uplift and erosion during Alpine orogeny has significant impact on migration and accumulation. Visible migration observed along faults, which reactivated during Austrian unconformity. Peak hydrocarbon expulsion reached during Oligocene for both the Tanezzuft and the Aouinet Ouenine source rocks. Based on modeling results, capillary entry pressure driven downward expulsion of hydrocarbons from the lower Silurian Tanezzuft formation to the underlying Bir Tlacsin formation observed during middle Cretaceous. Kinetic modeling has helped to model hydrocarbon composition and distribution of generated hydrocarbons from both the source rocks. Application of source to reservoir tracking technology suggest some accumulations at shallow stratigraphic level has received hydrocarbons from both the Tanezzuft and Aouinet Ouenine source rocks, implying charge mixing. Five petroleum systems identified based on source to reservoir correlation technology in Petromod*. This Study builds upon the original work of Underdown and Redfern, 2008 and offers new insights and interpretation of the data.

Nutrient delivery to Lake Winnipeg from the Red-Assiniboine River Basin – A binational application of the SPARROW model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benoy, Glenn A.; Jenkinson, R. Wayne; Robertson, Dale M.; Saad, David A.

2016-01-01

Excessive phosphorus (TP) and nitrogen (TN) inputs from the Red–Assiniboine River Basin (RARB) have been linked to eutrophication of Lake Winnipeg; therefore, it is important for the management of water resources to understand where and from what sources these nutrients originate. The RARB straddles the Canada–United States border and includes portions of two provinces and three states. This study represents the first binationally focused application of SPAtially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models to estimate loads and sources of TP and TN by jurisdiction and basin at multiple spatial scales. Major hurdles overcome to develop these models included: (1) harmonization of geospatial data sets, particularly construction of a contiguous stream network; and (2) use of novel calibration steps to accommodate limitations in spatial variability across the model extent and in the number of calibration sites. Using nutrient inputs for a 2002 base year, a RARB TP SPARROW model was calibrated that included inputs from agriculture, forests and wetlands, wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and stream channels, and a TN model was calibrated that included inputs from agriculture, WWTPs and atmospheric deposition. At the RARB outlet, downstream from Winnipeg, Manitoba, the majority of the delivered TP and TN came from the Red River Basin (90%), followed by the Upper Assiniboine River and Souris River basins. Agriculture was the single most important TP and TN source for each major basin, province and state. In general, stream channels (historically deposited nutrients and from bank erosion) were the second most important source of TP. Performance metrics for the RARB SPARROW model are similarly robust compared to other, larger US SPARROW models making it a potentially useful tool to address questions of where nutrients originate and their relative contributions to loads delivered to Lake Winnipeg.

Hydrological modelling of the Mara River Basin, Kenya: Dealing with uncertain data quality and calibrating using river stage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hulsman, P.; Bogaard, T.; Savenije, H. H. G.

2016-12-01

In hydrology and water resources management, discharge is the main time series for model calibration. Rating curves are needed to derive discharge from continuously measured water levels. However, assuring their quality is demanding due to dynamic changes and problems in accurately deriving discharge at high flows. This is valid everywhere, but even more in African socio-economic context. To cope with these uncertainties, this study proposes to use water levels instead of discharge data for calibration. Also uncertainties in rainfall measurements, especially the spatial heterogeneity needs to be considered. In this study, the semi-distributed rainfall runoff model FLEX-Topo was applied to the Mara River Basin. In this model seven sub-basins were distinguished and four hydrological response units with each a unique model structure based on the expected dominant flow processes. Parameter and process constrains were applied to exclude unrealistic results. To calibrate the model, the water levels were back-calculated from modelled discharges, using cross-section data and the Strickler formula calibrating parameter `k•s1/2', and compared to measured water levels. The model simulated the water depths well for the entire basin and the Nyangores sub-basin in the north. However, the calibrated and observed rating curves differed significantly at the basin outlet, probably due to uncertainties in the measured discharge, but at Nyangores they were almost identical. To assess the effect of rainfall uncertainties on the hydrological model, the representative rainfall in each sub-basin was estimated with three different methods: 1) single station, 2) average precipitation, 3) areal sub-division using Thiessen polygons. All three methods gave on average similar results, but method 1 resulted in more flashy responses, method 2 dampened the water levels due to averaging the rainfall and method 3 was a combination of both. In conclusion, in the case of unreliable rating curves, water level data can be used instead and a new rating curve can be calibrated. The effect of rainfall uncertainties on the hydrological model was insignificant.

Examining geological controls on baseflow index (BFI) using regression analysis: An illustration from the Thames Basin, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloomfield, J. P.; Allen, D. J.; Griffiths, K. J.

2009-06-01

SummaryLinear regression methods can be used to quantify geological controls on baseflow index (BFI). This is illustrated using an example from the Thames Basin, UK. Two approaches have been adopted. The areal extents of geological classes based on lithostratigraphic and hydrogeological classification schemes have been correlated with BFI for 44 'natural' catchments from the Thames Basin. When regression models are built using lithostratigraphic classes that include a constant term then the model is shown to have some physical meaning and the relative influence of the different geological classes on BFI can be quantified. For example, the regression constants for two such models, 0.64 and 0.69, are consistent with the mean observed BFI (0.65) for the Thames Basin, and the signs and relative magnitudes of the regression coefficients for each of the lithostratigraphic classes are consistent with the hydrogeology of the Basin. In addition, regression coefficients for the lithostratigraphic classes scale linearly with estimates of log 10 hydraulic conductivity for each lithological class. When a regression is built using a hydrogeological classification scheme with no constant term, the model does not have any physical meaning, but it has a relatively high adjusted R2 value and because of the continuous coverage of the hydrogeological classification scheme, the model can be used for predictive purposes. A model calibrated on the 44 'natural' catchments and using four hydrogeological classes (low-permeability surficial deposits, consolidated aquitards, fractured aquifers and intergranular aquifers) is shown to perform as well as a model based on a hydrology of soil types (BFIHOST) scheme in predicting BFI in the Thames Basin. Validation of this model using 110 other 'variably impacted' catchments in the Basin shows that there is a correlation between modelled and observed BFI. Where the observed BFI is significantly higher than modelled BFI the deviations can be explained by an exogenous factor, catchment urban area. It is inferred that this is may be due influences from sewage discharge, mains leakage, and leakage from septic tanks.

42. MISSISSIPPI BASIN MODEL AT CLINTON SUBSTATION. DETAIL OF 200 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

42. MISSISSIPPI BASIN MODEL AT CLINTON SUBSTATION. DETAIL OF 200 GALLON PER MINUTE INFLOW CONTROLLER WITH NEW PROGRAMMER, LOCATED ALONG THE NATCHEZ SECTION OF THE MODEL. - Waterways Experiment Station, Hydraulics Laboratory, Halls Ferry Road, 2 miles south of I-20, Vicksburg, Warren County, MS

Comparing Amazon Basin CO2 fluxes from an atmospheric inversion with TRENDY biosphere models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Alden, C. B.; Harper, A. B.; Ahlström, A.; Touma, D. E.; Miller, J. B.; Gatti, L. V.; Gloor, M.

2015-12-01

Net exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere is sensitive to environmental conditions, including extreme heat and drought. Of particular importance for local and global carbon balance and climate are the expansive tracts of tropical rainforest located in the Amazon Basin. Because of the Basin's size and ecological heterogeneity, net biosphere CO2 exchange with the atmosphere remains largely un-constrained. In particular, the response of net CO2 exchange to changes in environmental conditions such as temperature and precipitation are not yet well known. However, proper representation of these relationships in biosphere models is a necessary constraint for accurately modeling future climate and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. In an effort to compare biosphere response to climate across different biosphere models, the TRENDY model intercomparison project coordinated the simulation of CO2 fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere, in response to historical climate forcing, by 9 different Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. We examine the TRENDY model results in the Amazon Basin, and compare this "bottom-up" method with fluxes derived from a "top-down" approach to estimating net CO2 fluxes, obtained through atmospheric inverse modeling using CO2 measurements sampled by aircraft above the basin. We compare the "bottom-up" and "top-down" fluxes in 5 sub-regions of the Amazon basin on a monthly basis for 2010-2012. Our results show important periods of agreement between some models in the TRENDY suite and atmospheric inverse model results, notably the simulation of increased biosphere CO2 loss during wet season heat in the Central Amazon. During the dry season, however, model ability to simulate observed response of net CO2 exchange to drought was varied, with few models able to reproduce the "top-down" inversion flux signals. Our results highlight the value of atmospheric trace gas observations for helping to narrow the possibilities of future carbon-climate interactions, especially in historically under-observed regions like the Amazon.

Simulation of streamflow and sediment transport in two surface-coal-mined basins in Fayette County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sams, J. I.; Witt, E. C.

1995-01-01

The Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate streamflow and sediment transport in two surface-mined basins of Fayette County, Pa. Hydrologic data from the Stony Fork Basin (0.93 square miles) was used to calibrate HSPF parameters. The calibrated parameters were applied to an HSPF model of the Poplar Run Basin (8.83 square miles) to evaluate the transfer value of model parameters. The results of this investigation provide information to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, Bureau of Mining and Reclamation, regarding the value of the simulated hydrologic data for use in cumulative hydrologic-impact assessments of surface-mined basins. The calibration period was October 1, 1985, through September 30, 1988 (water years 1986-88). The simulated data were representative of the observed data from the Stony Fork Basin. Mean simulated streamflow was 1.64 cubic feet per second compared to measured streamflow of 1.58 cubic feet per second for the 3-year period. The difference between the observed and simulated peak stormflow ranged from 4.0 to 59.7 percent for 12 storms. The simulated sediment load for the 1987 water year was 127.14 tons (0.21 ton per acre), which compares to a measured sediment load of 147.09 tons (0.25 ton per acre). The total simulated suspended-sediment load for the 3-year period was 538.2 tons (0.30 ton per acre per year), which compares to a measured sediment load of 467.61 tons (0.26 ton per acre per year). The model was verified by comparing observed and simulated data from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 1989. The results obtained were comparable to those from the calibration period. The simulated mean daily discharge was representative of the range of data observed from the basin and of the frequency with which specific discharges were equalled or exceeded. The calibrated and verified parameters from the Stony Fork model were applied to an HSPF model of the Poplar Run Basin. The two basins are in a similar physical setting. Data from October 1, 1987, through September 30, 1989, were used to evaluate the Poplar Run model. In general, the results from the Poplar Run model were comparable to those obtained from the Stony Fork model. The difference between observed and simulated total streamflow was 1.1 percent for the 2-year period. The mean annual streamflow simulated by the Poplar Run model was 18.3 cubic feet per second. This compares to an observed streamflow of 18.15 cubic feet per second. For the 2-year period, the simulated sediment load was 2,754 tons (0.24 ton per acre per year), which compares to a measured sediment load of 3,051.2 tons (0.27 ton per acre per year) for the Poplar Run Basin. Cumulative frequency-distribution curves of the observed and simulated streamflow compared well. The comparison between observed and simulated data improved as the time span increased. Simulated annual means and totals were more representative of the observed data than hourly data used in comparing storm events. The structure and organization of the HSPF model facilitated the simulation of a wide range of hydrologic processes. The simulation results from this investigation indicate that model parameters may be transferred to ungaged basins to generate representative hydrologic data through modeling techniques.

Brine evolution and mineral deposition in hydrologically open evaporite basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, W.E.; Wood, W.W.

1991-01-01

A lumped-parameter, solute mass-balance model is developed to define the role of water outflow from a well-mixed basin. A mass-balance model is analyzed with a geochemical model designed for waters with high ionic strengths. Two typical waters, seawater and a Na-HCO3 ground water, are analyzed to illustrate the control that the leakage ratio (or hydrologic openness of the basin) has on brine evolution and the suite and thicknesses of evaporite minerals deposited. The analysis suggests that brines evolve differently under different leakage conditions. -from Authors

Climate change impacts analysis on hydrological processes in the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

2017-12-01

The study aims to examine the variation of hydrological processes (in terms of mean annual, seasonal, and monthly) under changing climate within the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia at both basin and sub-basin level using ArcSWAT hydrologic model. The climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation characteristics within the basin have been studied using GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2, and GFDL-ESM2G models for RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 scenarios from coupled model inter-comparison project 5 (CMIP5) which have been downscaled by SDSM. The results revealed that the mean annual temperature and precipitation reveal a statistically significant (at 5% significant level) increasing trend in the nine ESM-RCP scenarios for all the future time slices. The mean annual actual evapotranspiration, baseflow, soil water content, percolation, and water availability in the stream exhibit a rise for all the ESMs-RCP scenarios in the entire basin and in all the sub-basins. However, surface runoff and potential evapotranspiration show a decreasing trend. The mean annual water availability increases between 9.18 and 27.97% (RCP8.5), 3.98 and 19.61% (RCP4.5), and 11.82 and 17.06% (RCP2.6) in the entire basin. The sub-basin level analysis reveals that the annual, seasonal, and monthly variations of hydrological processes in all the sub-basins are similar regarding direction but different in magnitude as compared to that of the entire basin analysis. In addition, it is observed that there is a larger monthly and seasonal variation in hydrological processes as compared to the variation in annual scale. The net water availability tends to decline in the dry season; this might cause water shortage in the lowland region and greater increases in an intermediate and rainy seasons; this might cause flooding to some flood prone region of the basin. Since the variation of water availability among the sub-basins in upcoming period is high, there is a scope of meeting agriculture water demand through water transfer from sub-basin having more available water in small area to the sub-basin having less available water in a larger agricultural area.

Impacts of Changing Climatic Drivers and Land use features on Future Stormwater Runoff in the Northwest Florida Basin: A Large-Scale Hydrologic Modeling Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2017-12-01

Potential changes in climatic drivers and land cover features can significantly influence the stormwater budget in the Northwest Florida Basin. We investigated the hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff by developing a large-scale process-based rainfall-runoff model for the large basin by using the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Climatic and hydrologic variables, as well as land use/cover features were incorporated into the model to account for the key processes of coastal hydrology and its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea levels. We calibrated and validated the model by historical daily streamflow observations during 2009-2012 at four major rivers in the basin. Downscaled climatic drivers (precipitation, temperature, solar radiation) projected by twenty GCMs-RCMs under CMIP5, along with the projected future land use/cover features were also incorporated into the model. The basin storm runoff was then simulated for the historical (2000s = 1976-2005) and two future periods (2050s = 2030-2059, and 2080s = 2070-2099). Comparative evaluation of the historical and future scenarios leads to important guidelines for stormwater management in Northwest Florida and similar regions under a changing climate and environment.

3D thermal history and maturity modelling of the Levant Basin and Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daher, Samer Bou; Ducros, Mathieu; Michel, Pauline; Nader, Fadi H.; Littke, Ralf

2015-04-01

The gas discoveries recorded in the Levant Basin in the last decade have redirected the industrial and academic communities' interest to this frontier basin and its surroundings. The reported gas in Miocene reservoirs has been assumed to be derived from biogenic sources, although little data has been published so far. The thickness of the sedimentary column and the presence of direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHI) observed in the seismic data suggest the presence of promising prospective thermogenic petroleum systems in deeper intervals in the Levant Basin and along its Margin. In this study we present a large scale 3D thermal history and maturity model of the Levant Basin and Margin, integrating all available calibration data, source rock information collected from onshore Lebanon, and published data. In the first part we will present the main input and assumptions that were made in terms of thicknesses, lithologies, and boundary conditions. In the second part we will discuss the analysed source rocks, their petroleum generation potential and their kinetics. In the third part we will present modelling results including depth maps for key isotherms in addition to transformation ratio and vitrinite reflectance maps for proven and speculative source rocks at different time steps. This will provide a comprehensive assessment of the potential thermogenic petroleum systems in the study area, and allow us to illustrate and discuss the differences between the basinal, marginal, and onshore part of the study area as well as the potential of the northern vis a vis the southern offshore Levant Basin. This model will also allow us to analyse the sensitivity of the system to the various poorly constrained parameters in frontier basins (e.g. crustal thickness, rifting phases, lithologies) and thus identify the most critical data to be collected for future exploration and de-risking strategies.

Precessional control of Sr ratios in marginal basins during the Messinian Salinity Crisis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topper, R. P. M.; Lugli, S.; Manzi, V.; Roveri, M.; Meijer, P. Th.

2014-05-01

Based on 87Sr/86Sr data of the Primary Lower Gypsum (PLG) deposits in the Vena del Gesso basin—a marginal basin of the Mediterranean during the Messinian Salinity Crisis—a correlation between 87Sr/86Sr values and precessional forcing has recently been proposed but not yet confirmed. In this study, a box model is set up to represent the Miocene Mediterranean deep basin and a connected marginal basin. Measurements of 87Sr/86Sr in the Vena del Gesso and estimated salinity extrema are used to constrain model results. In an extensive analysis with this model, we assess whether coeval 87Sr/86Sr and salinity fluctuations could have been forced by precession-driven changes in the fresh water budget. A comprehensive set of the controlling parameters is examined to assess the conditions under which precession-driven 87Sr/86Sr variations occur and to determine the most likely setting for PLG formation. Model results show that precession-driven 87Sr/86Sr and salinity fluctuations in marginal basins are produced in settings within a large range of marginal basin sizes, riverine strontium characteristics, amplitudes of precessional fresh water budget variation, and average fresh water budgets of both the marginal and deep basin. PLG deposition most likely occurred when the Atlantic-Mediterranean connection was restricted, and the average fresh water budget in the Mediterranean was significantly less negative than at present day. Considering the large range of settings in which salinities and 87Sr/86Sr fluctuate on a precessional timescale, 87Sr/86Sr variations are expected to be a common feature in PLG deposits in marginal basins of the Mediterranean.

Assessing and managing water scarcity within the Nile River Transboundary Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butts, M. B.; Wendi, D.; Jessen, O. Z.; Riegels, N. D.

2012-04-01

The Nile Basin is the main source of water in the North Eastern Region of Africa and is perhaps one of the most critical river basins in Africa as the riparian countries constitute 40% of the population on the continent but only 10% of the area. This resource is under considerable stress with rising levels of water scarcity, high population growth, watershed degradation, and loss of environmental services. The potential impacts of climate change may significantly exacerbate this situation as the water resources in the Nile Basin are critically sensitive to climate change (Conway, Hanson, Doherty, & Persechino, 2007). The motivation for this study is an assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation potential for floods and droughts within the UNEP project "Adapting to climate change induced water stress in the Nile River Basin", supported by SIDA. This project is being carried out as collaboration between DHI, the UK Met Office, and the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). The Nile Basin exhibits highly diverse climatological and hydrological characteristics. Thus climate change impacts and adaptive capacity must be addressed at both regional and sub-basin scales. While the main focus of the project is the regional scale, sub-basin scale modelling is required to reflect variability within the basin. One of the major challenges in addressing this variability is the scarcity of data. This paper presents an initial screening modelling study of the water balance of the Nile Basin along with estimates of expected future impacts of climate change on the water balance. This initial study is focussed on the Ethiopian Highlands and the Lake Victoria regions, where the impact of climate change on rainfall is important. A robust sub-basin based monthly water balance model is developed and applied to selected sub-basins. The models were developed and calibrated using publicly available data. One of the major challenges in addressing this variability within the basin is the scarcity of spatial data and the results for the Kagera sub-basin show that it is important to represent the spatial distribution of the hydro-geographic characteristics such as rainfall, soil type, etc., in order to develop a reasonable representation of the water balance. These initial results show that the changes in the water balance and flow regime under climate change exhibit large uncertainty. From an examination the flow duration curves, however, there seems to be a consensus, based on an ensemble of climate projections, that flows will increase slightly the short term (2011-2030) and decrease significantly in the long term 2080-2099. The large uncertainties together with the natural variability in the Nile suggest that there is a strong need to maximise adaptive capacity with the region.

Thermal state of the Arkoma Basin and the Anadarko Basin, Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Youngmin

1999-12-01

One of the most fundamental physical processes that affects virtually all geologic phenomena in sedimentary basins is the flow of heat from the Earth's interiors. The Arkoma Basin and the Anadarko Basin, Oklahoma, are a prolific producer of both oil and natural gas. Both basins also have important geologic phenomena. Understanding the thermal state of the these basins is crucial to understanding the timing and extent of hydrocarbon generation, the genesis of Mississippi Valley-type ore deposits, and the origin of overpressures in the Anadarko Basin. In chapter one, heat flow and heat production in the Arkoma basin and Oklahoma Platform are discussed. Results of this study are not generally supportive of theories which invoke topographically driven regional groundwater flow from the Arkoma Basin in Late Pennsylvanian-Early Permian time (˜290 Ma) to explain the genesis of geologic phenomena. In chapter 2, different types of thermal conductivity temperature corrections that are commonly applied in terrestrial heat flow studies are evaluated. The invariance of the relative rankings with respect to rock porosity suggests the rankings may be valid with respect to in situ conditions. Chapter three addresses heat flow and thermal history of the Anadarko Basin and the western Oklahoma Platform. We found no evidence for heat flow to increase significantly from the Anadarko Basin in the south to the Oklahoma Platform to the north. In chapter four, overpressures in the Anadarko Basin, southwestern Oklahoma are discussed. Using scale analyses and a simple numerical model, we evaluated two endmember hypotheses (compaction disequilibrium and hydrocarbon generation) as possible causes of overpressuring. Geopressure models which invoke compaction disequilibrium do not appear to apply to the Anadarko Basin. The Anadarko Basin belongs to a group of cratonic basins which are tectonically quiescent and are characterized by the association of abnormal pressures with natural gas. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

The First 75 Years: History of Hydraulics Engineering at the Waterways Experiment Station

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-01-01

Report, 10-12. Gilsonite is a variety of asphalt that occurs in the Uinta Basin of northeastern Utah. Haydite is an expanded shale or clay...River Fish Mitigation: Gas Abatement." 76. John George i11terview. 77. "SCT Completes Mainstem Project Ranking," Columbia Basin Bulletin: Weekly...view of the Mississippi Basin Model looking toward the Gulf of Mexico. (Ohio River Basin in lower right foreground; Atchafalaya Basin in extreme

Joint Interpretation of Magnetotelluric and Gravimetric Data from the South American Paraná Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, E. B.; Santos, H. B.; Vitorello, I.; Pádua, M. B.

2013-05-01

The Paraná Basin is a large sedimentary basin in central-eastern South America that extends through Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina. Evolved completely over the South American continental crust, this Paleozoic basin is filled with sedimentary and volcanic rocks deposited from the Silurian to the Cretaceous, when a significant basaltic effusion covered almost the entire area of the basin. A series of superposed sedimentary and volcanic rock layers were laid down under the influence of different tectonic settings, probably originated from distant collisional dynamics of continental boards that led to the amalgamation of Gondwanaland. The current boundaries of the basin can be the result of issuing erosional or of tectonic origin, such as the building up of large arches and faults. To evaluate the deep structural architecture of the lithosphere under a sedimentary basin is a great challenge, requiring the integration of different geophysical and geological studies. In this paper, we present the resulting Paraná Basin lithospheric model, obtained from processing and inversion of broadband and long-period magnetotelluric soundings along an E-W profile across the central part of the basin, complemented by a qualitative joint interpretation of gravimetric data, in order to obtain a more precise geoelectric model of the deep structure of the region.

Thermal maturation and petroleum source rocks in Forest City and Salina basins, mid-continent, U. S. A

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newell, K.D.; Watney, W.L.; Hatch, J.R.

1986-05-01

Shales in the Middle Ordovician Simpson Group are probably the source rocks for a geochemically distinct group of lower pristane and low phytane oils produced along the axis of the Forest City basin, a shallow cratonic Paleozoic basin. These oils, termed Ordovician-type oils, occur in some fields in the southern portion of the adjacent Salina basin. Maturation modeling by time-temperature index (TTI) calculations indicate that maturation of both basins was minimal during the early Paleozoic. The rate of maturation significantly increased during the Pennsylvanian because of rapid regional subsidence in response to the downwarping of the nearby Anadarko basin. Whenmore » estimated thicknesses of eroded Pennsylvanian, Permian, and Cretaceous strata are considered, both basins remain relatively shallow, with maximum basement burial probably not exceeding 2 km. According to maturation modeling and regional structure mapping, the axes of both basins should contain Simpson rocks in the early stages of oil generation. The probability of finding commercial accumulations of Ordovician-type oil along the northwest-southeast trending axis of the Salina basin will decrease in a northwestward direction because of (1) westward thinning of the Simpson Group, and (2) lesser maturation due to lower geothermal gradients and shallower paleoburial depths. The optimum localities for finding fields of Ordovician-type oil in the southern Salina basin will be in down-plunge closures on anticlines that have drainage areas near the basin axis.« less

19. YAZOO BACKWATER PUMPING STATION MODEL, YAZOO RIVER BASIN. ELECTRONICS ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

19. YAZOO BACKWATER PUMPING STATION MODEL, YAZOO RIVER BASIN. ELECTRONICS ENGINEER AT DATA COLLECTION COMPUTER ROOM. - Waterways Experiment Station, Hydraulics Laboratory, Halls Ferry Road, 2 miles south of I-20, Vicksburg, Warren County, MS

BASIN ANALYSIS AND PETROLEUM SYSTEM CHARACTERIZATION AND MODELING, INTERIOR SALT BASINS, CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernest A. Mancini; Donald A. Goddard; Ronald K. Zimmerman

2005-05-10

The principal research effort for Year 2 of the project has been data compilation and the determination of the burial and thermal maturation histories of the North Louisiana Salt Basin and basin modeling and petroleum system identification. In the first nine (9) months of Year 2, the research focus was on the determination of the burial and thermal maturation histories, and during the remainder of the year the emphasis has basin modeling and petroleum system identification. Existing information on the North Louisiana Salt Basin has been evaluated, an electronic database has been developed, regional cross sections have been prepared, structuremore » and isopach maps have been constructed, and burial history, thermal maturation history and hydrocarbon expulsion profiles have been prepared. Seismic data, cross sections, subsurface maps and related profiles have been used in evaluating the tectonic, depositional, burial and thermal maturation histories of the basin. Oil and gas reservoirs have been found to be associated with salt-supported anticlinal and domal features (salt pillows, turtle structures and piercement domes); with normal faulting associated with the northern basin margin and listric down-to-the-basin faults (state-line fault complex) and faulted salt features; and with combination structural and stratigraphic features (Sabine and Monroe Uplifts) and monoclinal features with lithologic variations. Petroleum reservoirs are mainly Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous fluvial-deltaic sandstone facies and Lower Cretaceous and Upper Cretaceous shoreline, marine bar and shallow shelf sandstone facies. Cretaceous unconformities significantly contribute to the hydrocarbon trapping mechanism capacity in the North Louisiana Salt Basin. The chief petroleum source rock in this basin is Upper Jurassic Smackover lime mudstone beds. The generation of hydrocarbons from Smackover lime mudstone was initiated during the Early Cretaceous and continued into the Tertiary. Hydrocarbon expulsion commenced during the Early Cretaceous and continued into the Tertiary with peak expulsion occurring mainly during the Late Cretaceous.« less

Distribution of Large Visible and Buried Impact Basins on Mars: Comparison with Free-Air Gravity, Crustal Thickness and Magnetization Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frey, H. V.

2004-01-01

A comparison of the distribution of visible and buried impact basins (Quasi-Circular Depressions or QCDs) on Mars > 200 km in diameter with free air gravity, crustal thickness and magnetization models shows some QCDs have coincident gravity anomalies but most do not. Very few QCDs have closely coincident magnetization anomalies, and only the oldest of the very large impact basins have strong magnetic anomalies within their main rings. Crustal thickness data show a large number of Circular Thinned Areas (CTAs). Some of these correspond to known impact basins, while others may represent buried impact basins not always recognized as QCDs in topography data alone. If true, the buried lowlands may be even older than we have previously estimated.

ModABa Model: Annual Flow Duration Curves Assessment in Ephemeral Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pumo, Dario; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

2013-04-01

A representation of the streamflow regime for a river basin is required for a variety of hydrological analyses and engineering applications, from the water resource allocation and utilization to the environmental flow management. The flow duration curve (FDC) represents a comprehensive signature of temporal runoff variability often used to synthesize catchment rainfall-runoff responses. Several models aimed to the theoretical reconstruction of the FDC have been recently developed under different approaches, and a relevant scientific knowledge specific to this topic has been already acquired. In this work, a new model for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in perennial and ephemeral catchments is introduced. The ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in intermittent BAsins) can be thought as a wide mosaic whose tesserae are frameworks, models or conceptual schemes separately developed in different recent studies. Such tesserae are harmoniously placed and interconnected, concurring together towards a unique final aim that is the reproduction of the FDC of daily streamflows in a river basin. Two separated periods within the year are firstly identified: a non-zero period, typically characterized by significant streamflows, and a dry period, that, in the cases of ephemeral basins, is the period typically characterized by absence of streamflow. The proportion of time the river is dry, providing an estimation of the probability of zero flow occurring, is empirically estimated. Then, an analysis concerning the non-zero period is performed, considering the streamflow disaggregated into a slow subsuperficial component and a fast superficial component. A recent analytical model is adopted to derive the non zero FDC relative to the subsuperficial component; this last is considered to be generated by the soil water excess over the field capacity in the permeable portion of the basin. The non zero FDC relative to the fast streamflow component is directly derived from the precipitation duration curve through a simple filter model. The fast component of streamflow is considered to be formed by two contributions that are the entire amount of rainfall falling onto the impervious portion of the basin and the excess of rainfall over a fixed threshold, defining heavy rain events, falling onto the permeable portion. The two obtained FDCs are then overlapped, providing a unique non-zero FDC relative to the total streamflow. Finally, once the probability that the river is dry and the non zero FDC are known, the annual FDC of the daily total streamflow is derived applying the theory of total probability. The model is calibrated on a small catchment with ephemeral streamflows using a long period of daily precipitation, temperature and streamflow measurements, and it is successively validated in the same basin using two different time periods. The high model performances obtained in both the validation periods, demonstrate how the model, once calibrated, is able to accurately reproduce the empirical FDC starting from easily derivable parameters arising from a basic ecohydrological knowledge of the basin and commonly available climatic data such as daily precipitation and temperatures. In this sense, the model reveals itself as a valid tool for streamflow predictions in ungauged basins.

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Services: Application to the Albemarle Pamlico Basins, NC and VA (USA)

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate an Integrated Modeling Framework that predicts the state of freshwater ecosystem services within the Albemarle-Pamlico Basins. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standa...

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forcasting Ecosystem Services--Application to the Albemarle Pamlico Basins, NC and VA (USA) and Beyond

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate an Integrated Modeling Framework that predicts the state of freshwater ecosystem services within the Albemarle-Pamlico Basins. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standa...

43. MISSISSIPPI BASIN MODEL AT CLINTON SUBSTATION. DETAIL OF 200 ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

43. MISSISSIPPI BASIN MODEL AT CLINTON SUBSTATION. DETAIL OF 200 GALLON PER MINUTE INFLOW CONTROLLER WITH NEW PROGRAMMER, LOCATED ALONG THE NATCHEZ SECTION OF THE MODEL. NOTE CONTROL BUILDING AT LEFT. - Waterways Experiment Station, Hydraulics Laboratory, Halls Ferry Road, 2 miles south of I-20, Vicksburg, Warren County, MS

Demonstration of a conceptual model for using LiDAR to improve the estimation of floodwater mitigation potential of Prairie Pothole Region wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huang, S.; Young, Caitlin; Feng, M.; Heidemann, Hans Karl; Cushing, Matthew; Mushet, D.M.; Liu, S.

2011-01-01

Recent flood events in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America have stimulated interest in modeling water storage capacities of wetlands and their surrounding catchments to facilitate flood mitigation efforts. Accurate estimates of basin storage capacities have been hampered by a lack of high-resolution elevation data. In this paper, we developed a 0.5 m bare-earth model from Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data and, in combination with National Wetlands Inventory data, delineated wetland catchments and their spilling points within a 196 km2 study area. We then calculated the maximum water storage capacity of individual basins and modeled the connectivity among these basins. When compared to field survey results, catchment and spilling point delineations from the LiDAR bare-earth model captured subtle landscape features very well. Of the 11 modeled spilling points, 10 matched field survey spilling points. The comparison between observed and modeled maximum water storage had an R2 of 0.87 with mean absolute error of 5564 m3. Since maximum water storage capacity of basins does not translate into floodwater regulation capability, we further developed a Basin Floodwater Regulation Index. Based upon this index, the absolute and relative water that could be held by wetlands over a landscape could be modeled. This conceptual model of floodwater downstream contribution was demonstrated with water level data from 17 May 2008.

Groundwater-flow budget for the lower Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in southwestern Georgia and parts of Florida and Alabama, 2008–12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, L. Elliott; Painter, Jaime A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Sifuentes, Dorothy F.

2017-12-29

As part of the National Water Census program in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey evaluated the groundwater budget of the lower ACF, with particular emphasis on recharge, characterizing the spatial and temporal relation between surface water and groundwater, and groundwater pumping. To evaluate the hydrologic budget of the lower ACF River Basin, a groundwater-flow model, constructed using MODFLOW-2005, was developed for the Upper Floridan aquifer and overlying semiconfining unit for 2008–12. Model input included temporally and spatially variable specified recharge, estimated using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the ACF River Basin, and pumping, partly estimated on the basis of measured agricultural pumping rates in Georgia. The model was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and base flows, which were estimated using hydrograph separation.The simulated groundwater-flow budget resulted in a small net cumulative loss of groundwater in storage during the study period. The model simulated a net loss in groundwater storage for all the subbasins as conditions became substantially drier from the beginning to the end of the study period. The model is limited by its conceptualization, the data used to represent and calibrate the model, and the mathematical representation of the system; therefore, any interpretations should be considered in light of these limitations. In spite of these limitations, the model provides insight regarding water availability in the lower ACF River Basin.

Development of a biosphere hydrological model considering vegetation dynamics and its evaluation at basin scale under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiaoling; Ishidaira, Hiroshi

2012-01-01

SummaryThe biosphere and hydrosphere are intrinsically coupled. The scientific question is if there is a substantial change in one component such as vegetation cover, how will the other components such as transpiration and runoff generation respond, especially under climate change conditions? Stand-alone hydrological models have a detailed description of hydrological processes but do not sufficiently parameterize vegetation as a dynamic component. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are able to simulate transient structural changes in major vegetation types but do not simulate runoff generation reliably. Therefore, both hydrological models and DGVMs have their limitations as well as advantages for addressing this question. In this study a biosphere hydrological model (LPJH) is developed by coupling a prominent DGVM (Lund-Postdam-Jena model referred to as LPJ) with a stand-alone hydrological model (HYMOD), with the objective of analyzing the role of vegetation in the hydrological processes at basin scale and evaluating the impact of vegetation change on the hydrological processes under climate change. The application and validation of the LPJH model to four basins representing a variety of climate and vegetation conditions shows that the performance of LPJH is much better than that of the original LPJ and is similar to that of stand-alone hydrological models for monthly and daily runoff simulation at the basin scale. It is argued that the LPJH model gives more reasonable hydrological simulation since it considers both the spatial variability of soil moisture and vegetation dynamics, which make the runoff generation mechanism more reliable. As an example, it is shown that changing atmospheric CO 2 content alone would result in runoff increases in humid basins and decreases in arid basins. Theses changes are mainly attributable to changes in transpiration driven by vegetation dynamics, which are not simulated in stand-alone hydrological models. Therefore LPJH potentially provides a powerful tool for simulating vegetation response to climate changes in the biosphere hydrological cycle.

How well do CMIP5 Climate Models Reproduce the Hydrologic Cycle of the Colorado River Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, J.; Mascaro, G.

2017-12-01

The Colorado River, which is the primary source of water for nearly 40 million people in the arid Southwestern states of the United States, has been experiencing an extended drought since 2000, which has led to a significant reduction in water supply. As the water demands increase, one of the major challenges for water management in the region has been the quantification of uncertainties associated with streamflow predictions in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) under potential changes of future climate. Hence, testing the reliability of model predictions in the CRB is critical in addressing this challenge. In this study, we evaluated the performances of 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) and 4 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistical properties of the hydrologic cycle in the CRB. We evaluated the water balance components at four nested sub-basins along with the inter-annual and intra-annual changes of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), runoff (R) and temperature (T) from 1979 to 2005. Most of the models captured the net water balance fairly well in the most-upstream basin but simulated a weak hydrological cycle in the evaporation channel at the downstream locations. The simulated monthly variability of P had different patterns, with correlation coefficients ranging from -0.6 to 0.8 depending on the sub-basin and the models from same parent institution clustering together. Apart from the most-upstream sub-basin where the models were mainly characterized by a negative seasonal bias in SON (of up to -50%), most of them had a positive bias in all seasons (of up to +260%) in the other three sub-basins. The models, however, captured the monthly variability of T well at all sites with small inter-model variabilities and a relatively similar range of bias (-7 °C to +5 °C) across all seasons. Mann-Kendall test was applied to the annual P and T time-series where majority of the models and all observed products displayed nonsignificant trends for annual P. In contrast, more than half of the models exhibited significant trend with annual T as the observations. The results of this work provide support when selecting climate models for impact studies required to develop policies and plan investments aimed at ensuring water sustainability in the CRB.

Time reversal seismic imaging using laterally reflected surface waves in southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tape, C.; Liu, Q.; Tromp, J.; Plesch, A.; Shaw, J. H.

2010-12-01

We use observed post-surface-wave seismic waveforms to image shallow (upper 10 km) lateral reflectors in southern California. Our imaging technique employs the 3D crustal model m16 of Tape et al. (2009), which is accurate for most local earthquakes over the period range 2-30 s. Model m16 captures the resonance of the major sedimentary basins in southern California, as well as some lateral surface wave reflections associated with these basins. We apply a 3D Gaussian smoothing function (12 km horizontal, 2 km vertical) to model m16. This smoothing has the effect of suppressing synthetic waveforms within the period range of interest (3-10 s) that are associated with reflections (single and multiple) from these basins. The smoothed 3D model serves as the background model within which we propagate an ``adjoint wavefield'' comprised of time-reversed windows of post-surface-wave coda waveforms that are initiated at the respective station locations. This adjoint wavefield constructively interferes with the regular wavefield in the locations of potential reflectors. The potential reflectors are revealed in an ``event kernel,'' which is the time-integrated volumetric field for each earthquake. By summing (or ``stacking'') the event kernels from 28 well-recorded earthquakes, we identify several reflectors using this imaging procedure. The most prominent lateral reflectors occur in proximity to: the southernmost San Joaquin basin, the Los Angeles basin, the San Pedro basin, the Ventura basin, the Manix basin, the San Clemente--Santa Cruz--Santa Barbara ridge, and isolated segments of the San Jacinto and San Andreas faults. The correspondence between observed coherent coda waveforms and the imaged reflectors provides a solid basis for interpreting the kernel features as material contrasts. The 3D spatial extent and amplitude of the kernel features provide constraints on the geometry and material contrast of the imaged reflectors.

Air Pollution Over the Ganges Basin and Northwest Bay of Bengal in the Early Postmonsoon Season Based on NASA MERRAero Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kishcha, Pavel; Da Silva, Arlindo M.; Starobinets, Boris; Alpert, Pinhas

2014-01-01

The MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) has been recently developed at NASA's Global Modeling Assimilation Office. This reanalysis is based on a version of the Goddard Earth Observing System-5 (GEOS-5) model radiatively coupled with Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport aerosols, and it includes assimilation of bias-corrected aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on both Terra and Aqua satellites. In October over the period 2002-2009, MERRAero showed that AOT was lower over the east of the Ganges basin than over the northwest of the Ganges basin: this was despite the fact that the east of the Ganges basin should have produced higher anthropogenic aerosol emissions because of higher population density, increased industrial output, and transportation. This is evidence that higher aerosol emissions do not always correspond to higher AOT over the areas where the effects of meteorological factors on AOT dominate those of aerosol emissions. MODIS AOT assimilation was essential for correcting modeled AOT mainly over the northwest of the Ganges basin, where AOT increments were maximal. Over the east of the Ganges basin and northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB), AOT increments were low and MODIS AOT assimilation did not contribute significantly to modeled AOT. Our analysis showed that increasing AOT trends over northwest BoB (exceeding those over the east of the Ganges basin) were reproduced by GEOS-5, not because of MODIS AOT assimilation butmainly because of the model capability of reproducing meteorological factors contributing to AOT trends. Moreover, vertically integrated aerosol mass flux was sensitive to wind convergence causing aerosol accumulation over northwest BoB.

Reservoir Performance Under Future Climate For Basins With Different Hydrologic Sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mateus, M. C.; Tullos, D. D.

2013-12-01

In addition to long-standing uncertainties related to variable inflows and market price of power, reservoir operators face a number of new uncertainties related to hydrologic nonstationarity, changing environmental regulations, and rapidly growing water and energy demands. This study investigates the impact, sensitivity, and uncertainty of changing hydrology on hydrosystem performance across different hydrogeologic settings. We evaluate the performance of reservoirs in the Santiam River basin, including a case study in the North Santiam Basin, with high permeability and extensive groundwater storage, and the South Santiam Basin, with low permeability, little groundwater storage and rapid runoff response. The modeling objective is to address the following study questions: (1) for the two hydrologic regimes, how does the flood management, water supply, and environmental performance of current reservoir operations change under future 2.5, 50 and 97.5 percentile streamflow projections; and (2) how much change in inflow is required to initiate a failure to meet downstream minimum or maximum flows in the future. We couple global climate model results with a rainfall-runoff model and a formal Bayesian uncertainty analysis to simulate future inflow hydrographs as inputs to a reservoir operations model. To evaluate reservoir performance under a changing climate, we calculate reservoir refill reliability, changes in flood frequency, and reservoir time and volumetric reliability of meeting minimum spring and summer flow target. Reservoir performance under future hydrology appears to vary with hydrogeology. We find higher sensitivity to floods for the North Santiam Basin and higher sensitivity to minimum flow targets for the South Santiam Basin. Higher uncertainty is related with basins with a more complex hydrologeology. Results from model simulations contribute to understanding of the reliability and vulnerability of reservoirs to a changing climate.

Integrating understanding of biophysical processes governing larval fish dispersal with basin-scale management decisions: lessons from the Missouri River, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erwin, S. O.; Jacobson, R. B.; Fischenich, C. J.; Bulliner, E. A., IV; McDonald, R.; DeLonay, A. J.; Braaten, P.; Elliott, C. M.; Chojnacki, K.

2017-12-01

Management of the Missouri River—the longest river in the USA, with a drainage basin covering one sixth of the conterminous USA—is increasingly driven by the need to understand biophysical processes governing the dispersal of 8-mm long larval pallid sturgeon. In both the upper and lower basin, survival of larval sturgeon is thought to be a bottleneck limiting populations, but because of different physical processes at play, different modeling frameworks and resolutions are required to link management actions with population-level responses. In the upper basin, a series of impoundments reduce the length of river for the drifting larval sturgeon to complete their development. Downstream from the mainstem dams, recruitment is most likely diminished by channelization and reduced floodplain connectivity that limit the benthic habitat available for larval sturgeon to settle and initiate feeding. We present a synthesis of complementary field studies, laboratory observations, and numerical simulations that evaluate the physical processes related to larval dispersal of sturgeon in the Missouri River basin. In the upper basin, we use one-dimensional advection-dispersion models, calibrated with field experiments conducted in 2016-2017 using surrogate particles and tracers, to evaluate reservoir management alternatives. Results of field experimentation and numerical modeling show that proposed management alternatives in the upper basin may be limited by insufficient lengths of flowing river for drifting larvae to fully develop into their juvenile lifestage. In the intensively engineered lower basin, we employ higher resolution measurements and models to evaluate potential for channel reconfiguration and flow alteration to promote successful interception of drifting larvae into supportive benthic habitats for the initiation of feeding and transition to the juvenile life stage. We illustrate how refined understanding of small-scale biophysical process has been incorporated into the basin-scale management framework, thereby prompting a shift in restoration actions and design.

Heat flow and hydrocarbon generation in the Transylvanian basin, Romania

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cranganu, C.; Deming, D.

1996-10-01

The Transylvanian basin in central Romania is a Neogene depression superimposed on the Cretaceous nappe system of the Carpathian Mountains. The basin contains the main gas reserves of Romania, and is one of the most important gas-producing areas of continental Europe; since 1902, gas has been produced from more than 60 fields. Surface heat flow in the Transylvanian basin as estimated in other studies ranges from 26 to 58 mW/m{sup 2}, with a mean value of 38 mW/m{sup 2}, relatively low compared to surrounding areas. The effect of sedimentation on heat flow and temperature in the Transylvanian basin was estimatedmore » with a numerical model that solved the heat equation in one dimension. Because both sediment thickness and heat flow vary widely throughout the Transylvanian basin, a wide range of model variables were used to bracket the range of possibilities. Three different burial histories were considered (thin, average, and thick), along with three different values of background heat flow (low, average, and high). Altogether, nine different model permutations were studied. Modeling results show that average heat flow in the Transylvanian basin was depressed approximately 16% during rapid Miocene sedimentation, whereas present-day heat flow remains depressed, on average, about 17% below equilibrium values. We estimated source rock maturation and the timing of hydrocarbon generation by applying Lopatin`s method. Potential source rocks in the Transylvanian basin are Oligocene-Miocene, Cretaceous, and Jurassic black shales. Results show that potential source rocks entered the oil window no earlier than approximately 13 Ma, at depths of between 4200 and 8800 m. Most simulations encompassing a realistic range of sediment thicknesses and background heat flows show that potential source rocks presently are in the oil window; however, no oil has ever been discovered or produced in the Transylvanian basin.« less

Sensitivity of drainage morphometry based hydrological response (GIUH) of a river basin to the spatial resolution of DEM data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Ramendra; Jain, Vikrant

2018-02-01

Drainage network pattern and its associated morphometric ratios are some of the important plan form attributes of a drainage basin. Extraction of these attributes for any basin is usually done by spatial analysis of the elevation data of that basin. These planform attributes are further used as input data for studying numerous process-response interactions inside the physical premise of the basin. One of the important uses of the morphometric ratios is its usage in the derivation of hydrologic response of a basin using GIUH concept. Hence, accuracy of the basin hydrological response to any storm event depends upon the accuracy with which, the morphometric ratios can be estimated. This in turn, is affected by the spatial resolution of the source data, i.e. the digital elevation model (DEM). We have estimated the sensitivity of the morphometric ratios and the GIUH derived hydrograph parameters, to the resolution of source data using a 30 meter and a 90 meter DEM. The analysis has been carried out for 50 drainage basins in a mountainous catchment. A simple and comprehensive algorithm has been developed for estimation of the morphometric indices from a stream network. We have calculated all the morphometric parameters and the hydrograph parameters for each of these basins extracted from two different DEMs, with different spatial resolutions. Paired t-test and Sign test were used for the comparison. Our results didn't show any statistically significant difference among any of the parameters calculated from the two source data. Along with the comparative study, a first-hand empirical analysis about the frequency distribution of the morphometric and hydrologic response parameters has also been communicated. Further, a comparison with other hydrological models suggests that plan form morphometry based GIUH model is more consistent with resolution variability in comparison to topographic based hydrological model.

Step wise, multiple objective calibration of a hydrologic model for a snowmelt dominated basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.; Markstrom, S.L.; Viger, R.J.; Umemoto, M.

2006-01-01

The ability to apply a hydrologic model to large numbers of basins for forecasting purposes requires a quick and effective calibration strategy. This paper presents a step wise, multiple objective, automated procedure for hydrologic model calibration. This procedure includes the sequential calibration of a model's simulation of solar radiation (SR), potential evapotranspiration (PET), water balance, and daily runoff. The procedure uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search algorithm to calibrate the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Yampa River basin of Colorado. This process assures that intermediate states of the model (SR and PET on a monthly mean basis), as well as the water balance and components of the daily hydrograph are simulated, consistently with measured values.

Hydrogeology and steady-state numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the Lost Creek Designated Ground Water Basin, Weld, Adams, and Arapahoe Counties, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L.R.

2010-01-01

The Lost Creek Designated Ground Water Basin (Lost Creek basin) is an important alluvial aquifer for irrigation, public supply, and domestic water uses in northeastern Colorado. Beginning in 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Lost Creek Ground Water Management District and the Colorado Water Conservation Board, collected hydrologic data and constructed a steady-state numerical groundwater flow model of the Lost Creek basin. The model builds upon the work of previous investigators to provide an updated tool for simulating the potential effects of various hydrologic stresses on groundwater flow and evaluating possible aquifer-management strategies. As part of model development, the thickness and extent of regolith sediments in the basin were mapped, and data were collected concerning aquifer recharge beneath native grassland, nonirrigated agricultural fields, irrigated agricultural fields, and ephemeral stream channels. The thickness and extent of regolith in the Lost Creek basin indicate the presence of a 2- to 7-mile-wide buried paleovalley that extends along the Lost Creek basin from south to north, where it joins the alluvial valley of the South Platte River valley. Regolith that fills the paleovalley is as much as about 190 ft thick. Average annual recharge from infiltration of precipitation on native grassland and nonirrigated agricultural fields was estimated by using the chloride mass-balance method to range from 0.1 to 0.6 inch, which represents about 1-4 percent of long-term average precipitation. Average annual recharge from infiltration of ephemeral streamflow was estimated by using apparent downward velocities of chloride peaks to range from 5.7 to 8.2 inches. Average annual recharge beneath irrigated agricultural fields was estimated by using passive-wick lysimeters and a water-balance approach to range from 0 to 11.3 inches, depending on irrigation method, soil type, crop type, and the net quantity of irrigation water applied. Estimated average annual recharge beneath irrigated agricultural fields represents about 0-43 percent of net irrigation. The U.S. Geological Survey modular groundwater modeling program, MODFLOW-2000, was used to develop a steady-state groundwater flow model of the Lost Creek basin. Groundwater in the basin is simulated generally to flow from the basin margins toward the center of the basin and northward along the paleovalley. The largest source of inflow to the model occurs from recharge beneath flood- and sprinkler-irrigated agricultural fields (14,510 acre-feet per year [acre-ft/yr]), which represents 39.7 percent of total simulated inflow. Other substantial sources of inflow to the model are recharge from precipitation and stream-channel infiltration in nonirrigated areas (13,810 acre-ft/yr) seepage from Olds Reservoir (4,280 acre-ft/yr), and subsurface inflow from ditches and irrigated fields outside the model domain (2,490 acre-ft/yr), which contribute 37.7, 11.7, and 6.8 percent, respectively, of total inflow. The largest outflow from the model occurs from irrigation well withdrawals (26,760 acre-ft/yr), which represent 73.2 percent of total outflow. Groundwater discharge (6,640 acre-ft/yr) at the downgradient end of the Lost Creek basin represents 18.2 percent of total outflow, and evapotranspiration (3,140 acre-ft/yr) represents about 8.6 percent of total outflow.

Methane fluxes, microbes and carbonate mounds: insights from asin modelling of the porcupine basin, ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naeth, J.; di Primio, R.; Schäfer, R. G.; Horsfield, B.

2003-04-01

Our broad task has been to investigate the origin and growth of large carbonate mounds within the Porcupine Basin offshore Ireland. Specifically, the project aims at determining the timing and magnitude of chemical degradation and physical redistribution processes which are likely to have played a key role in the formation of carbonate mounds. We addressed these issues using 2D basin modelling the results of which were used for map-based migration modelling. The overall sedimentary basin architecture of the basin facilitates up-dip fluid migration towards the western, eastern and especially the northern margins of the basin. Potential fluid migration pathways are available through a variety of stratal surfaces, unconformities, faults and detachments. The spatial association of deep water carbonate mounds with underlying fluid pathways is compatible with the provision of a basin-derived nutrient source (e.g. hydrocarbons). Numerical simulations lie at the centre of the investigation using three seismic lines covering the Hovland-Magellan mound area in the northern part of the basin and the Belgica mound area in the western part. The calibration of the thermal history was performed by iteratively using putative heat-flow scenarios in compliance with the known geologic evolution of the basin, present-day temperatures, organic maturity parameters, overpressure occurrence and assigned lithologies. After optimisation of the model, the generation and migration history of potential source units were modelled using, inter alia, the source richness and quality assignments referred to above and kinetic parameters of hydrocarbon generation determined experimentally. The results achieved indicate that: bullet hydrocarbon generation and expulsion is currently taking place in the vicinity of the mound locations bullet stratigraphic pinch outs and shallow structural closures underly most mounds bullet a high temporal and spatial resolution of the latest Tertiary and Quaternary events in combination with accurate paleo-water depth reconstructions are of critical importance for recognition of leakage pathways leading to the sea floor bullet the onset of carbonate mound growth coincides with the predicted timing of maximum thermogenic methane fluxes to the sea floor

Variational assimilation of streamflow into operational distributed hydrologic models: effect of spatiotemporal adjustment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.; Seo, D.-J.; Liu, Y.; Koren, V.; McKee, P.; Corby, R.

2012-01-01

State updating of distributed rainfall-runoff models via streamflow assimilation is subject to overfitting because large dimensionality of the state space of the model may render the assimilation problem seriously under-determined. To examine the issue in the context of operational hydrology, we carry out a set of real-world experiments in which streamflow data is assimilated into gridded Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) and kinematic-wave routing models of the US National Weather Service (NWS) Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) with the variational data assimilation technique. Study basins include four basins in Oklahoma and five basins in Texas. To assess the sensitivity of data assimilation performance to dimensionality reduction in the control vector, we used nine different spatiotemporal adjustment scales, where state variables are adjusted in a lumped, semi-distributed, or distributed fashion and biases in precipitation and potential evaporation (PE) are adjusted hourly, 6-hourly, or kept time-invariant. For each adjustment scale, three different streamflow assimilation scenarios are explored, where streamflow observations at basin interior points, at the basin outlet, or at both interior points and the outlet are assimilated. The streamflow assimilation experiments with nine different basins show that the optimum spatiotemporal adjustment scale varies from one basin to another and may be different for streamflow analysis and prediction in all of the three streamflow assimilation scenarios. The most preferred adjustment scale for seven out of nine basins is found to be the distributed, hourly scale, despite the fact that several independent validation results at this adjustment scale indicated the occurrence of overfitting. Basins with highly correlated interior and outlet flows tend to be less sensitive to the adjustment scale and could benefit more from streamflow assimilation. In comparison to outlet flow assimilation, interior flow assimilation at any adjustment scale produces streamflow predictions with a spatial correlation structure more consistent with that of streamflow observations. We also describe diagnosing the complexity of the assimilation problem using the spatial correlation information associated with the streamflow process, and discuss the effect of timing errors in a simulated hydrograph on the performance of the data assimilation procedure.

Improved vegetation parameterization for hydrological model and assessment of land cover change impacts on flow regime of the Upper Bhima basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohaideen, M. M. Diwan; Varija, K.

2018-05-01

This study investigates the potential and applicability of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model to simulate different hydrological components of the Upper Bhima basin under two different Land Use Land Cover (LULC) (the year 2000 and 2010) conditions. The total drainage area of the basin was discretized into 1694 grids of about 5.5 km by 5.5 km: accordingly the model parameters were calibrated at each grid level. Vegetation parameters for the model were prepared using temporal profile of Leaf Area Index (LAI) from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and LULC. This practice provides a methodological framework for the improved vegetation parameterization along with region-specific condition for the model simulation. The calibrated and validated model was run using the two LULC conditions separately with the same observed meteorological forcing (1996-2001) and soil data. The change in LULC has resulted to an increase in the average annual evapotranspiration over the basin by 7.8%, while the average annual surface runoff and baseflow decreased by 18.86 and 5.83%, respectively. The variability in hydrological components and the spatial variation of each component attributed to LULC were assessed at the basin grid level. It was observed that 80% of the basin grids showed an increase in evapotranspiration (ET) (maximum of 292 mm). While the majority of the grids showed a decrease in surface runoff and baseflow, some of the grids showed an increase (i.e. 21 and 15% of total grids—surface runoff and baseflow, respectively).

Modeled streamflow metrics on small, ungaged stream reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2016-01-20

Modeling streamflow is an important approach for understanding landscape-scale drivers of flow and estimating flows where there are no streamgage records. In this study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Colorado State University, the objectives were to model streamflow metrics on small, ungaged streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin and identify streams that are potentially threatened with becoming intermittent under drier climate conditions. The Upper Colorado River Basin is a region that is critical for water resources and also projected to experience large future climate shifts toward a drying climate. A random forest modeling approach was used to model the relationship between streamflow metrics and environmental variables. Flow metrics were then projected to ungaged reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin using environmental variables for each stream, represented as raster cells, in the basin. Last, the projected random forest models of minimum flow coefficient of variation and specific mean daily flow were used to highlight streams that had greater than 61.84 percent minimum flow coefficient of variation and less than 0.096 specific mean daily flow and suggested that these streams will be most threatened to shift to intermittent flow regimes under drier climate conditions. Map projection products can help scientists, land managers, and policymakers understand current hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin and make informed decisions regarding water resources. With knowledge of which streams are likely to undergo significant drying in the future, managers and scientists can plan for stream-dependent ecosystems and human water users.

Comparing potential recharge estimates from three Land Surface Models across the Western US

PubMed Central

NIRAULA, REWATI; MEIXNER, THOMAS; AJAMI, HOORI; RODELL, MATTHEW; GOCHIS, DAVID; CASTRO, CHRISTOPHER L.

2018-01-01

Groundwater is a major source of water in the western US. However, there are limited recharge estimates available in this region due to the complexity of recharge processes and the challenge of direct observations. Land surface Models (LSMs) could be a valuable tool for estimating current recharge and projecting changes due to future climate change. In this study, simulations of three LSMs (Noah, Mosaic and VIC) obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) are used to estimate potential recharge in the western US. Modeled recharge was compared with published recharge estimates for several aquifers in the region. Annual recharge to precipitation ratios across the study basins varied from 0.01–15% for Mosaic, 3.2–42% for Noah, and 6.7–31.8% for VIC simulations. Mosaic consistently underestimates recharge across all basins. Noah captures recharge reasonably well in wetter basins, but overestimates it in drier basins. VIC slightly overestimates recharge in drier basins and slightly underestimates it for wetter basins. While the average annual recharge values vary among the models, the models were consistent in identifying high and low recharge areas in the region. Models agree in seasonality of recharge occurring dominantly during the spring across the region. Overall, our results highlight that LSMs have the potential to capture the spatial and temporal patterns as well as seasonality of recharge at large scales. Therefore, LSMs (specifically VIC and Noah) can be used as a tool for estimating future recharge rates in data limited regions. PMID:29618845

Application of GIS in Modeling Zilberchai Basin Runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malekani, L.; Khaleghi, S.; Mahmoodi, M.

2014-10-01

Runoff is one of most important hydrological variables that are used in many civil works, planning for optimal use of reservoirs, organizing rivers and warning flood. The runoff curve number (CN) is a key factor in determining runoff in the SCS (Soil Conservation Service) based hydrologic modeling method. The traditional SCS-CN method for calculating the composite curve number consumes a major portion of the hydrologic modeling time. Therefore, geographic information systems (GIS) are now being used in combination with the SCS-CN method. This work uses a methodology of determining surface runoff by Geographic Information System model and applying SCS-CN method that needs the necessary parameters such as land use map, hydrologic soil groups, rainfall data, DEM, physiographic characteristic of the basin. The model is built by implementing some well known hydrologic methods in GIS like as ArcHydro, ArcCN-Runoff for modeling of Zilberchai basin runoff. The results show that the high average weighted of curve number indicate that permeability of the basin is low and therefore likelihood of flooding is high. So the fundamental works is essential in order to increase water infiltration in Zilberchai basin and to avoid wasting surface water resources. Also comparing the results of the computed and observed runoff value show that use of GIS tools in addition to accelerate the calculation of the runoff also increase the accuracy of the results. This paper clearly demonstrates that the integration of GIS with the SCS-CN method provides a powerful tool for estimating runoff volumes in large basins.

Three-dimensional geologic model of the southeastern Espanola Basin, Santa Fe County, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pantea, Michael P.; Hudson, Mark R.; Grauch, V.J.S.; Minor, Scott A.

2011-01-01

This multimedia model and report show and describe digital three-dimensional faulted surfaces and volumes of lithologic units that confine and constrain the basin-fill aquifers within the Espanola Basin of north-central New Mexico. These aquifers are the primary groundwater resource for the cities of Santa Fe and Espanola, six Pueblo nations, and the surrounding areas. The model presented in this report is a synthesis of geologic information that includes (1) aeromagnetic and gravity data and seismic cross sections; (2) lithologic descriptions, interpretations, and geophysical logs from selected drill holes; (3) geologic maps, geologic cross sections, and interpretations; and (4) mapped faults and interpreted faults from geophysical data. Modeled faults individually or collectively affect the continuity of the rocks that contain the basin aquifers; they also help define the form of this rift basin. Structure, trend, and dip data not previously published were added; these structures are derived from interpretations of geophysical information and recent field observations. Where possible, data were compared and validated and reflect the complex relations of structures in this part of the Rio Grande rift. This interactive geologic framework model can be used as a tool to visually explore and study geologic structures within the Espanola Basin, to show the connectivity of geologic units of high and low permeability between and across faults, and to show approximate dips of the lithologic units. The viewing software can be used to display other data and information, such as drill-hole data, within this geologic framework model in three-dimensional space.

Initial sediment transport model of the mining-affected Aries River Basin, Romania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.; Linard, Joshua I.

2008-01-01

The Romanian government is interested in understanding the effects of existing and future mining activities on long-term dispersal, storage, and remobilization of sediment-associated metals. An initial Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was prepared using available data to evaluate hypothetical failure of the Valea Sesei tailings dam at the Rosia Poieni mine in the Aries River basin. Using the available data, the initial Aries River Basin SWAT model could not be manually calibrated to accurately reproduce monthly streamflow values observed at the Turda gage station. The poor simulation of the monthly streamflow is attributed to spatially limited soil and precipitation data, limited constraint information due to spatially and temporally limited streamflow measurements, and in ability to obtain optimal parameter values when using a manual calibration process. Suggestions to improve the Aries River basin sediment transport model include accounting for heterogeneity in model input, a two-tier nonlinear calibration strategy, and analysis of uncertainty in predictions.

The topographic distribution of annual incoming solar radiation in the Rio Grande River basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dubayah, R.; Van Katwijk, V.

1992-01-01

We model the annual incoming solar radiation topoclimatology for the Rio Grande River basin in Colorado, U.S.A. Hourly pyranometer measurements are combined with satellite reflectance data and 30-m digital elevation models within a topographic solar radiation algorithm. Our results show that there is large spatial variability within the basin, even at an annual integration length, but the annual, basin-wide mean is close to that measured by the pyranometers. The variance within 16 sq km and 100 sq km regions is a linear function of the average slope in the region, suggesting a possible parameterization for sub-grid-cell variability.

A NEW METHOD FOR ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW ASSESSMENT BASED ON BASIN GEOLOGY. APPLICATION TO EBRO BASIN.

PubMed

2018-02-01

The determination of environmental flows is one of the commonest practical actions implemented on European rivers to promote their good ecological status. In Mediterranean rivers, groundwater inflows are a decisive factor in streamflow maintenance. This work examines the relationship between the lithological composition of the Ebro basin (Spain) and dry season flows in order to establish a model that can assist in the calculation of environmental flow rates.Due to the lack of information on the hydrogeological characteristics of the studied basin, the variable representing groundwater inflows has been estimated in a very simple way. The explanatory variable used in the proposed model is easy to calculate and is sufficiently powerful to take into account all the required characteristics.The model has a high coefficient of determination, indicating that it is accurate for the intended purpose. The advantage of this method compared to other methods is that it requires very little data and provides a simple estimate of environmental flow. It is also independent of the basin area and the river section order.The results of this research also contribute to knowledge of the variables that influence low flow periods and low flow rates on rivers in the Ebro basin.

Combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment for the hydrological system in the Vu Gia- Thu Bon River Basin.

PubMed

Tra, Tran Van; Thinh, Nguyen Xuan; Greiving, Stefan

2018-07-15

Vu Gia- Thu Bon (VGTB) River Basin, located in the Central Coastal zone of Viet Nam currently faces water shortage. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the challenge. Therefore, there is a need to study the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the river basin. The study adopts a combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment to address the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the VGTB River Basin. A MIKE BASIN water balance model for the river basin was established to simulate the response of the hydrological system. Simulations were performed through parametrically varying temperature and precipitation to determine the vulnerability space of water shortage. General Circulation Models (GCMs) were then utilized to provide climate projections for the river basin. The output from GCMs was then mapped onto the vulnerability space determined earlier. In total, 9 out of 55 water demand nodes in the simulation are expected to face problematic conditions as future climate changes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: A review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasson, Shabeh ul; Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Böhner, Jürgen

2016-11-01

We review the skill of thirty coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in terms of reproducing properties of the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the major river basins of South and Southeast Asia (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for the historical period (1961-2000). We also present how these models represent the impact of climate change by the end of century (2061-2100) under the extreme scenario RCP8.5. First, we assess the models' ability to reproduce the observed timings of the monsoon onset and the rate of rapid fractional accumulation (RFA) slope - a measure of seasonality within the active monsoon period. Secondly, we apply a threshold-independent seasonality index (SI) - a multiplicative measure of precipitation (P) and extent of its concentration relative to uniform distribution (relative entropy - RE). We apply SI distinctly over the monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR), westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. For the present climate, neither any single model nor the multi-model mean performs best in all chosen metrics. Models show overall a modest skill in suggesting right timings of the monsoon onset while the RFA slope is generally underestimated. One third of the models fail to capture the monsoon signal over the Indus basin. Mostly, the estimates for SI during WPR are higher than observed for all basins. When looking at MPR, the models typically simulate an SI higher (lower) than observed for the Ganges and Brahmaputra (Indus and Mekong) basins, following the pattern of overestimation (underestimation) of precipitation. Most of the models are biased negative (positive) for RE estimates over the Brahmaputra and Mekong (Indus and Ganges) basins, implying the extent of precipitation concentration for MPR and number of dry days within WPR lower (higher) than observed for these basins. Such skill of the CMIP5 models in representing the present-day monsoonal hydroclimatology poses some caveats on their ability to represent correctly the climate change signal. Nevertheless, considering the majority-model agreement as a measure of robustness for the qualitative scale projected future changes, we find a slightly delayed onset, and a general increase in the RFA slope and in the extent of precipitation concentration (RE) for MPR. Overall, a modest inter-model agreement suggests an increase in the seasonality of MPR and a less intermittent WPR for all basins and for most of the study domain. The SI-based indicator of change in the monsoonal domain suggests its extension westward over northwest India and Pakistan and northward over China. These findings have serious implications for the food and water security of the region in the future.

Geohistory and thermal maturation in the Cherokee Basin (Mid-Continent, U.S.A.): results from modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forster, A.; Merriam, D.F.; Hoth, P.

1998-01-01

The Cherokee basin in southeastern Kansas contains a stratigraphic section consisting mostly of Permian-Pennsylvanian alternating clastics and thin carbonates overlying carbonates of Mississippian and Cambrian-Ordovician age on a Precambrian crytalline basement. Based on a conceptual model of events of deposition, nondeposition, and erosion, a burial history model for (1) noncompaction, and a series of models for (2) compaction are computed for a borehole location in the south-central part of the basin. The models are copled with the calculation of nonsteady-state geothermal conditions. Maximum temperatures during basin evolution of about 70??C at the base of the organic-rich Pennsylvanian are predicted by our models, assuming pure heat conduction and a heat flow from the basement of 60 m W/m2. The maturation of organic matter as indicated by three different vitrinite reflectance (Ro) models is on the order og 0.3-0.5% Ro for Pennsylvanian rocks and 0.6% Ro for the Devonian-Mississippian Cattanooga Shale. Vitrinite reflectance was measured on subsurface smaples from three wells. The measured values correlate in the upper part of the sequence with modeled data, but diverge slightly in the Lower Pennsylvanian and Cattanooga Shale. The differences in maturation may be a result of differing local geological conditions within the basin. The relatively high Ro-depth gradients observed in one borehole may be explained by conditions in the Teeter oil field, which is a typical plains-type anticline that has been affected by fluid flow through vertical faults. Higher Ro values correlate positively with the grade of sulfidfe mineralization in the sediment, which may be a hint of fluid impact. The high Ro values relative to the shallow depth of the Mississippian and the Chattanooga Shale in the Brown well are on the order of Ro values modeled for the same stratigraphic units at present-day greater depths and may reflect uplift of the Ozark dome, located further east, affecting the eastern side of the Cherokee Basin.Based on a concept model of deposition, nondeposition and erosion, a burial history model for noncompaction, and a series of models for compaction are developed for a borehole location in a south-central part of the Cherokee basin in southeastern Kansas. Coupled with the calculation of nonsteady state-state geothermal conditions, the models predict maximum temperatures during evolution of about 70 ??C at the base of the organic-rich Pennsylvanian. A difference in organic matter maturation in the Pennsylvanian and the Chattanooga shale exhibited by vitrinite reflectance models indicate probably differing local geological conditions within the basin.

Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

2013-04-01

The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including staff from the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), have been trained in using the model. The model is publicly accessible through a web-based user interface that allows users to investigate scenarios and perform sensitivity analyses. Preliminary results suggest that: 1. At the margin, hydropower water use increases basin-wide welfare more than irrigation water use. 2. Under normal or average hydrological conditions, water scarcity is not a significant problem in the basin. 3. Under dry hydrological conditions, water scarcity is significant. Under these conditions, preliminary results suggest that cotton irrigation is less effective than other uses, particularly in Turkmenistan. 4. Investments in irrigation efficiency can have a significant impact on the effectiveness of water use for irrigation, thereby increasing the welfare of irrigation regions during dry periods.

Stratification established by peeling detrainment from gravity currents: laboratory experiments and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogg, Charlie; Dalziel, Stuart; Huppert, Herbert; Imberger, Jorg; Department of Applied Mathematics; Theoretical Physics Team; CentreWater Research Team

2014-11-01

Dense gravity currents feed fluid into confined basins in lakes, the oceans and many industrial applications. Existing models of the circulation and mixing in such basins are often based on the currents entraining ambient fluid. However, recent observations have suggested that uni-directional entrainment into a gravity current does not fully describe the mixing in such currents. Laboratory experiments were carried out which visualised peeling detrainment from the gravity current occurring when the ambient fluid was stratified. A theoretical model of the observed peeling detrainment was developed to predict the stratification in the basin. This new model gives a better approximation of the stratification observed in the experiments than the pre-existing entraining model. The model can now be developed such that it integrates into operational models of lakes.

Modeling of Soil Erosion by IntErO model: The Case Study of the Novsicki Potok Watershed, of the Prokletije high mountains of Montenegro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spalevic, Velibor; Al-Turki, Ali M.; Barovic, Goran; Leandro Naves Silva, Marx; Djurovic, Nevenka; Soares Souza, Walisson; Veloso Gomes Batista, Pedro; Curovic, Milic

2016-04-01

The application of soil conservation programs to combat erosion and sedimentation are significantly contributing to the protection of the natural resources. Watershed management practices include the assessment of Physical-Geographical, Climate, Geological, Pedological characteristics, including the analysis of Land Use of the regions concerned. The policy makers are increasingly looking for the different land uses and climatic scenarios that can be used for valuable projections for watershed management. To increase knowledge about those processes, use of hydrological and soil erosion models is needed and that is allowing quantification of soil redistribution and sediment productions. We focused on soil erosion processes in one of Northern Montenegrin mountain watersheds, the Novsicki Potok Watershed of the Polimlje River Basin, using modeling techniques: the IntErO model for calculation of runoff and soil loss. The model outcomes were validated through measurements of lake sediment deposition at the Potpec hydropower plant dam. Our findings indicate a medium potential of soil erosion risk. With 464 m³ yr-1 of annual sediment yield, corresponding to an area-specific sediment yield of 270 m³km-2 yr-1, the Novsicki Potok drainage basin belongs to the Montenegrin basins with the medium sediment discharge; according to the erosion type, it is surface erosion. The value of the Z coefficient was calculated on 0.403, what indicates that the river basin belongs to 3rd destruction category (of five). Our results suggest that the calculated peak discharge from the river basin was 82 m3s-1 for the incidence of 100 years. According to our analysis there is a possibility for large flood waves to appear in the studied river basin. With this research we, to some extent, improved the knowledge on the status of sediment yield and runoff of the river basins of Montenegro, where the map of Soil erosion is still not prepared. The IntErO model we used in this study is relatively novel concept and is highly recommended for soil erosion modelling in other river basins similar to the studied watershed, because of its simple identification of critical areas affected by the soil loss caused by soil erosion.

Statistical and Hydrological evaluation of precipitation forecasts from IMD MME and ECMWF numerical weather forecasts for Indian River basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohite, A. R.; Beria, H.; Behera, A. K.; Chatterjee, C.; Singh, R.

2016-12-01

Flood forecasting using hydrological models is an important and cost-effective non-structural flood management measure. For forecasting at short lead times, empirical models using real-time precipitation estimates have proven to be reliable. However, their skill depreciates with increasing lead time. Coupling a hydrologic model with real-time rainfall forecasts issued from numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems could increase the lead time substantially. In this study, we compared 1-5 days precipitation forecasts from India Meteorological Department (IMD) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) with European Center for Medium Weather forecast (ECMWF) NWP forecasts for over 86 major river basins in India. We then evaluated the hydrologic utility of these forecasts over Basantpur catchment (approx. 59,000 km2) of the Mahanadi River basin. Coupled MIKE 11 RR (NAM) and MIKE 11 hydrodynamic (HD) models were used for the development of flood forecast system (FFS). RR model was calibrated using IMD station rainfall data. Cross-sections extracted from SRTM 30 were used as input to the MIKE 11 HD model. IMD started issuing operational MME forecasts from the year 2008, and hence, both the statistical and hydrologic evaluation were carried out from 2008-2014. The performance of FFS was evaluated using both the NWP datasets separately for the year 2011, which was a large flood year in Mahanadi River basin. We will present figures and metrics for statistical (threshold based statistics, skill in terms of correlation and bias) and hydrologic (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, mean and peak error statistics) evaluation. The statistical evaluation will be at pan-India scale for all the major river basins and the hydrologic evaluation will be for the Basantpur catchment of the Mahanadi River basin.

Basin-fill Aquifer Modeling with Terrestrial Gravity: Assessing Static Offsets in Bulk Datasets using MATLAB; Case Study of Bridgeport, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mlawsky, E. T.; Louie, J. N.; Pohll, G.; Carlson, C. W.; Blakely, R. J.

2015-12-01

Understanding the potential availability of water resources in Eastern California aquifers is of critical importance to making water management policy decisions and determining best-use practices for California, as well as for downstream use in Nevada. Hydrologic well log data can provide valuable information on aquifer capacity, but is often proprietarily inaccessible or economically unfeasible to obtain in sufficient quantity. In the case of basin-fill aquifers, it is possible to make estimates of aquifer geometry and volume using geophysical surveys of gravity, constrained by additional geophysical and geological observations. We use terrestrial gravity data to model depth-to-basement about the Bridgeport, CA basin for application in preserving the Walker Lake biome. In constructing the model, we assess several hundred gravity observations, existing and newly collected. We regard these datasets as "bulk," as the data are compiled from multiple sources. Inconsistencies among datasets can result in "static offsets," or artificial bull's-eye contours, within the gradient. Amending suspect offsets requires the attention of the modeler; picking these offsets by hand can be a time-consuming process when modeling large-scale basin features. We develop a MATLAB script for interpolating the residual Bouguer anomaly about the basin using sparse observation points, and leveling offset points with a user-defined sensitivity. The script is also capable of plotting gravity profiles between any two endpoints within the map extent. The resulting anomaly map provides an efficient means of locating and removing static offsets in the data, while also providing a fast visual representation of a bulk dataset. Additionally, we obtain gridded basin gravity models with an open-source alternative to proprietary modeling tools.

Investigating the Subduction History of the Southwest Pacific using Coupled Plate Tectonic-Mantle Convection Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, K. J.; Flament, N. E.; Williams, S.; Müller, D.; Gurnis, M.

2014-12-01

The Late Cretaceous to mid Eocene (~85-45 Ma) evolution of the southwest Pacific has been the subject of starkly contrasting plate reconstruction models, reflecting sparse and ambiguous data. Disparate models of (1) west-dipping subduction and back-arc basin opening to the east of the Lord Howe Rise, (2) east-dipping subduction and back-arc basin closure to the east of the Lord Howe Rise, and (3) tectonic quiescence with no subduction have all been proposed for this time frame. To help resolve this long-standing problem we test a new southwest Pacific reconstruction using global mantle flow models with imposed plate motions. The kinematic model incorporates east to northeast directed rollback of a west-dipping subduction zone between 85 and 55 Ma, accommodating opening of the South Loyalty back-arc basin to the east of New Caledonia. At 55 Ma there is a plate boundary reorganization in the region. West-dipping subduction and back-arc basin spreading end, and there is initiation of northeast dipping subduction within the back-arc basin. Consumption of South Loyalty Basin seafloor continues until 45 Ma, when obduction onto New Caledonia begins. West-dipping Tonga-Kermadec subduction initiates at this time at the relict Late Cretaceous-earliest Eocene subduction boundary. We use the 3D spherical mantle convection code CitcomS coupled to the plate reconstruction software GPlates, with plate motions and evolving plate boundaries imposed since 230 Ma. The predicted present-day mantle structure is compared to S- and P-wave seismic tomography models, which can be used to infer the presence of slab material in the mantle at locations where fast velocity anomalies are imaged. This workflow enables us to assess the forward-modeled subduction history of the region.

Observational and numerical particle tracking to examine sediment dynamics in a Mississippi River delta diversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, Mead A.; Yuill, Brendan T.; Meselhe, Ehab A.; Marsh, Jonathan K.; Kolker, Alexander S.; Ameen, Alexander D.

2017-07-01

River diversions may serve as useful restoration tools along coastal deltas experiencing land loss due to high rates of relative sea-level rise and the disruption of natural sediment supply. Diversions mitigate land loss by serving as new sediment sources for land building areas in basins proximal to river channels. However, because of the paucity of active diversions, little is known about how diversion receiving-basins evacuate or retain the sediment required to build new land. This study uses observational and numerical particle tracking to investigate the behavior of riverine sand and silt as it enters and passes through the West Bay diversion receiving-basin located on the lowermost Mississippi River delta, USA. Fluorescent sediment tracer was deployed and tracked within the bed sediment over a five-month period to identify locations of sediment deposition in the receiving-basin and nearby river channel. A computational fluid dynamics model with a Lagrangian sediment transport module was employed to predict selective pathways for riverine flow and sand and silt particles through the receiving-basin. Observations of the fluorescent tracer provides snapshots of the integrated sediment response to the full range of drivers in the natural system; the numerical model results offer a continuous map of sediment advection vectors through the receiving basin in response to river-generated currents. Together, these methods provide insight into local and basin-wide values of sediment retention as influenced by grain size, transport time, and basin morphology. Results show that after two weeks of low Mississippi River discharge, basin silt retention was approximately 60% but was reduced to 4% at the conclusion of the study. Riverine sand retention was approximately near 100% at two weeks and 40% over the study period. Modeled sediment storage was predicted to be greatest at the margins of the primary basin transport pathway; this matched the observed dynamics of the silt tracer but did not match the behavior of the sand tracer. The degree to which the observational measurements deviate from the model predictions may indicate the relative influence of physical processes other than the mean riverine generated currents, such as tides, wind generated currents, and waves.

Automated basin delineation from digital terrain data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marks, D.; Dozier, J.; Frew, J.

1983-01-01

While digital terrain grids are now in wide use, accurate delineation of drainage basins from these data is difficult to efficiently automate. A recursive order N solution to this problem is presented. The algorithm is fast because no point in the basin is checked more than once, and no points outside the basin are considered. Two applications for terrain analysis and one for remote sensing are given to illustrate the method, on a basin with high relief in the Sierra Nevada. This technique for automated basin delineation will enhance the utility of digital terrain analysis for hydrologic modeling and remote sensing.

Identification and simulation of space-time variability of past hydrological drought events in the Limpopo River basin, southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trambauer, P.; Maskey, S.; Werner, M.; Pappenberger, F.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Uhlenbrook, S.

2014-08-01

Droughts are widespread natural hazards and in many regions their frequency seems to be increasing. A finer-resolution version (0.05° × 0.05°) of the continental-scale hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) was set up for the Limpopo River basin, one of the most water-stressed basins on the African continent. An irrigation module was included to account for large irrigated areas of the basin. The finer resolution model was used to analyse hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River basin in the period 1979-2010 with a view to identifying severe droughts that have occurred in the basin. Evaporation, soil moisture, groundwater storage and runoff estimates from the model were derived at a spatial resolution of 0.05° (approximately 5 km) on a daily timescale for the entire basin. PCR-GLOBWB was forced with daily precipitation and temperature obtained from the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis product from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Two agricultural drought indicators were computed: the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) and the Root Stress Anomaly Index (RSAI). Hydrological drought was characterised using the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and the Groundwater Resource Index (GRI), which make use of the streamflow and groundwater storage resulting from the model. Other more widely used meteorological drought indicators, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), were also computed for different aggregation periods. Results show that a carefully set-up, process-based model that makes use of the best available input data can identify hydrological droughts even if the model is largely uncalibrated. The indicators considered are able to represent the most severe droughts in the basin and to some extent identify the spatial variability of droughts. Moreover, results show the importance of computing indicators that can be related to hydrological droughts, and how these add value to the identification of hydrological droughts and floods and the temporal evolution of events that would otherwise not have been apparent when considering only meteorological indicators. In some cases, meteorological indicators alone fail to capture the severity of the hydrological drought. Therefore, a combination of some of these indicators (e.g. SPEI-3, SRI-6 and SPI-12 computed together) is found to be a useful measure for identifying agricultural to long-term hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River basin. Additionally, it was possible to undertake a characterisation of the drought severity in the basin, indicated by its time of occurrence, duration and intensity.

Long-period Ground Motion Simulation in the Osaka Basin during the 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwata, T.; Kubo, H.; Asano, K.; Sato, K.; Aoi, S.

2014-12-01

Large amplitude long-period ground motions (1-10s) with long duration were observed in the Osaka sedimentary basin during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw9.0) and its aftershock (Ibaraki-Oki, Mw7.7), which is about 600 km away from the source regions. Sato et al. (2013) analyzed strong ground motion records from the source region to the Osaka basin and showed the following characteristics. (1) In the period range of 1 to 10s, the amplitude of horizontal components of the ground motion at the site-specific period is amplified in the Osaka basin sites. The predominant period is about 7s in the bay area where the largest pSv were observed. (2) The velocity Fourier amplitude spectra with their predominant period of around 7s are observed at the bedrock sites surrounding the Osaka basin. Those characteristics were observed during both of the mainshock and the largest aftershock. Therefore, large long-period ground motions in the Osaka basin are generated by the combination of propagation-path and basin effects. They simulated ground motions due to the largest aftershock as a simple point source model using three-dimensional FDM (GMS; Aoi and Fujiwara, 1999). They used a three-dimensional velocity structure based on the Japan Integrated Velocity Structure Model (JIVSM, Koketsu et al., 2012), with the minimum effective period of the computation of 3s. Their simulation result reproduced the observation characteristics well and it validates the applicability of the JIVSM for the long period ground motion simulation. In this study, we try to simulate long-period ground motions during the mainshock. The source model we used for the simulation is based on the SMGA model obtained by Asano and Iwata (2012). We succeed to simulate long-period ground motion propagation from Kanto area to the Osaka basin fairly well. The long-period ground motion simulations with the several Osaka basin velocity structure models are done for improving the model applicability. We used strong motion data recorded by K-NET, KiK-net and F-net of NIED, CEORKA, BRI, JMA, Osaka city waterworks bureau, and Osaka prefecture. GMS provided by NIED is used for the computation.

Comparison of modelled runoff with observed proglacial discharge across the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustafa, S.; Rennermalm, A.; van As, D.; Overeem, I.; Tedesco, M.; Mote, T. L.; Koenig, L.; Smith, L. C.; Hagedorn, B.; Sletten, R. S.; Mikkelsen, A. B.; Hasholt, B.; Hall, D. K.; Fettweis, X.; Pitcher, L. H.; Hubbard, A.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet surface ablation now dominates its total mass loss contributions to sea-level rise. Despite the increasing importance of Greenland's sea-level contribution, a quantitative inter-comparison between modeled and measured melt, runoff and discharge across multiple drainage basins is conspicuously lacking. Here we investigate the accuracy of model discharge estimates from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR v3.5.2) regional climate model by comparison with in situ proglacial river discharge measurements at three West Greenland drainage basins - North River (Thule), Watson River (Kangerlussuaq), and Naujat Kuat River (Nuuk). At each target catchment, we: 1) determine optimal drainage basin delineations; 2) assess primary drivers of melt; 3) evaluate MAR at daily, 5-, 10- and 20-day time scales; and 4) identify potential sources for model-observation discrepancies. Our results reveal that MAR resolves daily discharge variability poorly in the Nuuk and Thule basins (r2 = 0.4-0.5), but does capture variability over 5-, 10-, and 20-day means (r2 > 0.7). Model agreement with river flow data, though, is reduced during periods of peak discharge, particularly for the exceptional melt and discharge events of July 2012. Daily discharge is best captured by MAR across the Watson River basin, whilst there is lower correspondence between modeled and observed discharge at the Thule and Naujat Kuat River basins. We link the main source of model error to an underestimation of cloud cover, overestimation of surface albedo, and apparent warm bias in near-surface air temperatures. For future inter-comparison, we recommend using observations from catchments that have a self-contained and well-defined drainage area and an accurate discharge record over variable years coincident with a reliable automatic weather station record. Our study highlights the importance of improving MAR modeled surface albedo, cloud cover representation, and delay functions to reduce model error and to improve prediction of Greenland's future runoff contribution to global sea level rise.

An integrated water system model considering hydrological and biogeochemical processes at basin scale: model construction and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y. Y.; Shao, Q. X.; Ye, A. Z.; Xing, H. T.

2014-08-01

Integrated water system modeling is a reasonable approach to provide scientific understanding and possible solutions to tackle the severe water crisis faced over the world and to promote the implementation of integrated river basin management. Such a modeling practice becomes more feasible nowadays due to better computing facilities and available data sources. In this study, the process-oriented water system model (HEXM) is developed by integrating multiple water related processes including hydrology, biogeochemistry, environment and ecology, as well as the interference of human activities. The model was tested in the Shaying River Catchment, the largest, highly regulated and heavily polluted tributary of Huai River Basin in China. The results show that: HEXM is well integrated with good performance on the key water related components in the complex catchments. The simulated daily runoff series at all the regulated and less-regulated stations matches observations, especially for the high and low flow events. The average values of correlation coefficient and coefficient of efficiency are 0.81 and 0.63, respectively. The dynamics of observed daily ammonia-nitrogen (NH4N) concentration, as an important index to assess water environmental quality in China, are well captured with average correlation coefficient of 0.66. Furthermore, the spatial patterns of nonpoint source pollutant load and grain yield are also simulated properly, and the outputs have good agreements with the statistics at city scale. Our model shows clear superior performance in both calibration and validation in comparison with the widely used SWAT model. This model is expected to give a strong reference for water system modeling in complex basins, and provide the scientific foundation for the implementation of integrated river basin management all over the world as well as the technical guide for the reasonable regulation of dams and sluices and environmental improvement in river basins.

Application of The Rainfall-runoff Model Topkapi For The Entire Basin of The Po River As Part of The European Project Effs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todini, E.; Bartholmes, J.

The project EFFS (European Flood Forecasting System) aims at developing a flood forecasting system for the major river basins all over Europe. To extend the forecast- ing and thus the warning time in a significant way (up to 10 days) meteorological forecasting data from the ECMWF will be used as input to hydrological models. For this purpose it is fundamental to have a reliable rainfall-runoff model. For the river Po basin we chose the TOPKAPI model (Ciarapica, Todini 1998). TOPKAPI is a physi- cally based rainfall-runoff model that maintains its physical significance passing from hillslope to large basin scale. The aim of the distributed version is to reproduce the spatial variability and to lead to a better understanding of scaling effects on meteo- rological data used as well as of physical phenomena and parameters. By now the TOPKAPI model has been applied successfully to basins of smaller and medium size (up to 8000 km2). The present work also proves that TOPKAPI is a valuable flood forecasting tool for larger basins such as the Po river. An advantage of the TOPKAPI model is its physical basis. It doesn't need a "real" calibration in the common sense of the expression. The calibration work that has to be done is due to the unavoidable averaging and approximation in the input data representing various phenomena. This reduces the calibration work as well as the length of data required. The model was implemented on the Po river at spatial steps of 1km and time steps of 1 hour using available data during the year 1994. After the calibration phase, mesoscale forecasts (from ECMWF) as well as forecasts of LAM models (DWD,DMI) will be used as input to the Po river models and their behaviour will be studied as a function of the prediction quality and of the coarseness of the spatial discretisation.

Maps of estimated nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beisner, Kimberly R.; Anning, David W.; Paul, Angela P.; McKinney, Tim S.; Huntington, Jena M.; Bexfield, Laura M.; Thiros, Susan A.

2012-01-01

Human-health concerns and economic considerations associated with meeting drinking-water standards motivated a study of the vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment in the southwestern United States. Statistical models were developed by using the random forest classifier algorithm to predict concentrations of nitrate and arsenic across a model grid representing about 190,600 square miles of basin-fill aquifers in parts of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The statistical models, referred to as classifiers, reflect natural and human-related factors that affect aquifer vulnerability to contamination and relate nitrate and arsenic concentrations to explanatory variables representing local- and basin-scale measures of source and aquifer susceptibility conditions. Geochemical variables were not used in concentration predictions because they were not available for the entire study area. The models were calibrated to assess model accuracy on the basis of measured values.Only 2 percent of the area underlain by basin-fill aquifers in the study area was predicted to equal or exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standard for nitrate as N (10 milligrams per liter), whereas 43 percent of the area was predicted to equal or exceed the standard for arsenic (10 micrograms per liter). Areas predicted to equal or exceed the drinking-water standard for nitrate include basins in central Arizona near Phoenix; the San Joaquin Valley, the Santa Ana Inland, and San Jacinto Basins of California; and the San Luis Valley of Colorado. Much of the area predicted to equal or exceed the drinking-water standard for arsenic is within a belt of basins along the western portion of the Basin and Range Physiographic Province that includes almost all of Nevada and parts of California and Arizona. Predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations are substantially lower than the drinking-water standards in much of the study area-about 93 percent of the area underlain by basin-fill aquifers was less than one-half the standard for nitrate as N (5.0 milligrams per liter), and 50 percent was less than one-half the standard for arsenic (5.0 micrograms per liter). The predicted concentrations and the improved understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of southwestern basin-fill aquifers to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment can be used by water managers as a qualitative tool to assess and protect the quality of groundwater resources in the Southwest.

Probability and volume of potential postwildfire debris flows in the 2010 Fourmile burn area, Boulder County, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruddy, Barbara C.; Stevens, Michael R.; Verdin, Kristine

2010-01-01

This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the Fourmile Creek fire in Boulder County, Colorado, in 2010. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volumes of debris flows for selected drainage basins. Data for the models include burn severity, rainfall total and intensity for a 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainstorm, and topographic and soil property characteristics. Several of the selected drainage basins in Fourmile Creek and Gold Run were identified as having probabilities of debris-flow occurrence greater than 60 percent, and many more with probabilities greater than 45 percent, in response to the 25-year recurrence, 1-hour rainfall. None of the Fourmile Canyon Creek drainage basins selected had probabilities greater than 45 percent. Throughout the Gold Run area and the Fourmile Creek area upstream from Gold Run, the higher probabilities tend to be in the basins with southerly aspects (southeast, south, and southwest slopes). Many basins along the perimeter of the fire area were identified as having low probability of occurrence of debris flow. Volume of debris flows predicted from drainage basins with probabilities of occurrence greater than 60 percent ranged from 1,200 to 9,400 m3. The predicted moderately high probabilities and some of the larger volumes responses predicted for the modeled storm indicate a potential for substantial debris-flow effects to buildings, roads, bridges, culverts, and reservoirs located both within these drainages and immediately downstream from the burned area. However, even small debris flows that affect structures at the basin outlets could cause considerable damage.

How Much Water is in That Snowpack? Improving Basin-wide Snow Water Equivalent Estimates from the Airborne Snow Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormann, K.; Painter, T. H.; Marks, D. G.; Kirchner, P. B.; Winstral, A. H.; Ramirez, P.; Goodale, C. E.; Richardson, M.; Berisford, D. F.

2014-12-01

In the western US, snowmelt from the mountains contribute the vast majority of fresh water supply, in an otherwise dry region. With much of California currently experiencing extreme drought, it is critical for water managers to have accurate basin-wide estimations of snow water content during the spring melt season. At the forefront of basin-scale snow monitoring is the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO). With combined LiDAR /spectrometer instruments and weekly flights over key basins throughout California, the ASO suite is capable of retrieving high-resolution basin-wide snow depth and albedo observations. To make best use of these high-resolution snow depths, spatially distributed snow density data are required to leverage snow water equivalent (SWE) from the measured depths. Snow density is a spatially and temporally variable property and is difficult to estimate at basin scales. Currently, ASO uses a physically based snow model (iSnobal) to resolve distributed snow density dynamics across the basin. However, there are issues with the density algorithms in iSnobal, particularly with snow depths below 0.50 m. This shortcoming limited the use of snow density fields from iSnobal during the poor snowfall year of 2014 in the Sierra Nevada, where snow depths were generally low. A deeper understanding of iSnobal model performance and uncertainty for snow density estimation is required. In this study, the model is compared to an existing climate-based statistical method for basin-wide snow density estimation in the Tuolumne basin in the Sierra Nevada and sparse field density measurements. The objective of this study is to improve the water resource information provided to water managers during ASO operation in the future by reducing the uncertainty introduced during the snow depth to SWE conversion.

Fluvial Connectivity and Sediment Dispersal within Continental Extensional Basins; Assessment of Controlling Factors using Numerical Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geurts, A., Jr.; Cowie, P. A.; Gawthorpe, R.; Huismans, R. S.; Pedersen, V. K.

2017-12-01

Progressive integration of drainage networks has been documented in many regional-scale studies of extensional continental systems. While endorheic drainage and lake sedimentation are common features observed in basin stratigraphy, they often disappear from the record due to the development of a through-going river network. Because changes in the fluvial connectivity of extensional basins have profound impact on erosion and sediment dispersal, and thus the feedback between surface processes and tectonics, it is of great importance to understand what controls them. Headward erosion (also called headward capture or river piracy) is often suggested to be the main mechanism causing basins to become interconnected over time with one another and with the regional/coastal drainage network. We show that overspill mechanisms (basin over-filling or lake over-spilling) play a key role in the actively extending central Italian Apennines, even though this area is theoretically favorable for headward erosion (short distances to the coast in combination with rapid surface uplift). In other tectonic settings (e.g. contractional basins and high plateaux) the role of headward erosion in transverse drainage development and integrating endorheic basins has also been increasingly questioned. These two mechanisms predict very different spatio-temporal patterns of sediment dispersal and thus timing of sediment loading (or erosional unloading) along active normal faults, which in turn may influence the locus of subsequent extensional deformation. By means of surface process modelling we develop a process-based understanding of the controls on fluvial connectivity between extensional basins in the central Italian Apennines. We focus on which conditions (tectonic and erosional) favour headward erosion versus overspill and compare our model results with published field evidence for drainage integration and the timing of basin sedimentation/incision.

Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: A review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio

2017-04-01

We review the skill of thirty coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in terms of reproducing properties of the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the major river basins of South and Southeast Asia (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for the historical period (1961-2000). We also present how these models represent the impact of climate change by the end of century (2061-2100) under the extreme scenario RCP8.5. First, we assess the models' ability to reproduce the observed timings of the monsoon onset and the rate of rapid fractional accumulation (RFA) slope — a measure of seasonality within the active monsoon period. Secondly, we apply a threshold-independent seasonality index (SI) — a multiplicative measure of precipitation (P) and extent of its concentration relative to uniform distribution (relative entropy — RE). We apply SI distinctly over the monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR), westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. For the present climate, neither any single model nor the multi-model mean performs best in all chosen metrics. Models show overall a modest skill in suggesting right timings of the monsoon onset while the RFA slope is generally underestimated. One third of the models fail to capture the monsoon signal over the Indus basin. Mostly, the estimates for SI during WPR are higher than observed for all basins. When looking at MPR, the models typically simulate an SI higher (lower) than observed for the Ganges and Brahmaputra (Indus and Mekong) basins, following the pattern of overestimation (underestimation) of precipitation. Most of the models are biased negative (positive) for RE estimates over the Brahmaputra and Mekong (Indus and Ganges) basins, implying the extent of precipitation concentration for MPR and number of dry days within WPR lower (higher) than observed for these basins. Such skill of the CMIP5 models in representing the present-day monsoonal hydroclimatology poses some caveats on their ability to represent correctly the climate change signal. Nevertheless, considering the majority-model agreement as a measure of robustness for the qualitative scale projected future changes, we find a slightly delayed onset, and a general increase in the RFA slope and in the extent of precipitation concentration (RE) for MPR. Overall, a modest inter-model agreement suggests an increase in the seasonality of MPR and a less intermittent WPR for all basins and for most of the study domain. The SI-based indicator of change in the monsoonal domain suggests its extension westward over northwest India and Pakistan and northward over China. These findings have serious implications for the food and water security of the region in the future. Reference Ul Hasson, S., Pascale, S., Lucarini, V., & Böhner, J. (2016). Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: A review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections. Atmospheric Research, 180, 42-63. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.05.008

Methods and equations for estimating peak streamflow per square mile in Virginia’s urban basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Models are presented that describe Virginia urban area annual peak streamflow per square mile based on basin percent urban area and basin drainage area. Equations are provided to estimate Virginia urban peak flow per square mile of basin drainage area in each of the following annual exceedance probability categories: 0.995, 0.99, 0.95, 0.9, 0.8, 0.67, 0.5, 0.43, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002 (recurrence intervals of 1.005, 1.01, 1.05, 1.11, 1.25, 1.49, 2.0, 2.3, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively). Equations apply to Virginia drainage basins ranging in size from no less than 1.2 mi2 to no more than 2,400 mi2 containing at least 10 percent urban area, and not more than 96 percent urban area. A total of 115 Virginia drainage basins were analyzed. Actual-by-predicted plots and leverage plots for response variables and explanatory variables in each peak-flow annual exceedance probability category indicate robust model fits and significant explanatory power. Equations for 8 of 15 urban peak-flow response surface models yield R-square values greater than 0.8. Relations identified in statistical models, describing significant increases in urban peak stream discharges as basin urban area increases, affirm empirical relations reported in past studies of change in stream discharge, lag times, and physical streamflow processes, most notably those detailed for urban areas in northern Virginia.

Seismic attenuation structure of the Seattle Basin, Washington State from explosive-source refraction data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Q.; Wilcock, W.S.D.; Pratt, T.L.; Snelson, C.M.; Brocher, T.M.

2006-01-01

We used waveform data from the 1999 SHIPS (Seismic Hazard Investigation of Puget Sound) seismic refraction experiment to constrain the attenuation structure of the Seattle basin, Washington State. We inverted the spectral amplitudes of compressional- and shear-wave arrivals for source spectra, site responses, and one- and two-dimensional Q-1 models at frequencies between 1 and 40 Hz for P waves and 1 and 10 Hz for S waves. We also obtained Q-1 models from t* values calculated from the spectral slopes of P waves between 10 and 40 Hz. One-dimensional inversions show that Qp at the surface is 22 at 1 Hz, 130 at 5 Hz, and 390 at 20 Hz. The corresponding values at 18 km depth are 100, 440, and 1900. Qs at the surface is 16 and 160 at 1 Hz and 8 Hz, respectively, increasing to 80 and 500 at 18 km depth. The t* inversion yields a Qp model that is consistent with the amplitude inversions at 20 and 30 Hz. The basin geometry is clearly resolved in the t* inversion, but the amplitude inversions only imaged the basin structure after removing anomalously high-amplitude shots near Seattle. When these shots are removed, we infer that Q-1 values may be ???30% higher in the center of the basin than the one-dimensional models predict. We infer that seismic attenuation in the Seattle basin will significantly reduce ground motions at frequencies at and above 1 Hz, partially countering amplification effects within the basin.

Evaluating the performance of real-time streamflow forecasting using multi-satellite precipitation products in the Upper Zambezi, Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Valdes, J. B.; Wi, S.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Durcik, M.

2016-12-01

In under-instrumented basins around the world, accurate and timely forecasts of river streamflows have the potential of assisting water and natural resource managers in their management decisions. The Upper Zambezi river basin is the largest basin in southern Africa and its water resources are critical to sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction in eight riparian countries. We present a real-time streamflow forecast for the basin using a multi-model-multi-satellite approach that allows accounting for model and input uncertainties. Three distributed hydrologic models with different levels of complexity: VIC, HYMOD_DS, and HBV_DS are setup at a daily time step and a 0.25 degree spatial resolution for the basin. The hydrologic models are calibrated against daily observed streamflows at the Katima-Mulilo station using a Genetic Algorithm. Three real-time satellite products: Climate Prediction Center's morphing technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B42RT) are bias-corrected with daily CHIRPS estimates. Uncertainty bounds for predicted flows are estimated with the Inverse Variance Weighting method. Because concentration times in the basin range from a few days to more than a week, we include the use of precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecasting System (GFS) to predict daily streamflows in the basin with a 10-days lead time. The skill of GFS-predicted streamflows is evaluated and the usefulness of the forecasts for short term water allocations is presented.

Hydrocarbon plays evaluation of eastern China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu Shou Cheng

1991-03-01

In eastern China there are 78 depressed basins, most of which are tilt-block basins. Each of them engenders petroleum generation except the Cretaceous sag basin of Song-Liao. These depressed basins set up in the order of older to younger depending on the change of the mantle convection. Consequently, the order of sedimentation and source-reservoir are changed and the exploration targets are also changed. Tan-Lu fault system is of great significance in NNW (early) and NEE (later) accompanying faults for exploration play. The hydrocarbon accumulation rules of these plays are: (1) As a result of the Tertiary tilt-block basins, compaction-flow basinsmore » contain similar hydrodynamic, thermodynamic, and buried pressure fields. The direction of fluid flow is from generation center of the basin to the margins. So the hydrocarbon plays are distributed nearby the generation center and circum-center belt. (2) The richness of hydrocarbon plays is controlled by the form and distribution of source rock due to structural change of the tilt-block. The richest is the center uplift play and then the low-raised play, steep slope play, gentle-slope play, and, poorest, the low-lying play. (3) A variety of the composite hydrocarbon play models are formed by the different structure models, sedimentary model, and hydrocarbon model. Most of the recovery reserves are set in one or two plays even though there are many hydrocarbon plays in a tilt-block basin. (4) There are 3 types and 25 subtypes of petroleum pools formed by the different characters of plays. Therefore, there are numerous technologies, methodologies, and strategies of petroleum exploration.« less

The significance of salt reconstruction for basin modeling results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johansen, H.; Blomvik, V.; Bonnell, L.

1996-12-31

Salt structures can play a major role in the temperature history as well as in the formation of hydrocarbon traps. Salt movement through time is therefore an important process to incorporate into basin models. Based on this need, a new model for geologic reconstruction of salt geometries was incorporated into the BMT{trademark} basin modeling system. The reconstruction model is based on two basic mechanisms: (1) The ability to change lithology for a polygon (a sub-domain in the cross section) at a given time (litho-switching) and (2) the ability to inflate/deflate mass in polygons. Litho-switching is used where salt diapirs penetratemore » overlaying strata. Inflation/deflation is used to change the shape of a salt polygon. By inflating/deflating parts of polygons, it is possible to restore the salt layer step by step back to original form. The advantage of this approach is its applicability to geological problems that cannot be addressed by many basin modeling systems. To test the approach, we have reconstructed a cross-section from the Central Graben of the North Sea using two different geological models. One model assumes that synforms developed on the surface during Triassic deposition. These synforms were later preserved as sediment {open_quotes}pods{close_quotes}. The other geological model assumes that the salt movement was passively related to eastward basin subsidence, with salt upwelling between rafted Triassic blocks. The test indicate that the approach is versatile and can be used to evaluate the thermal consequences of a number of geologic models of salt movement.« less

The significance of salt reconstruction for basin modeling results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johansen, H.; Blomvik, V.; Bonnell, L.

1996-01-01

Salt structures can play a major role in the temperature history as well as in the formation of hydrocarbon traps. Salt movement through time is therefore an important process to incorporate into basin models. Based on this need, a new model for geologic reconstruction of salt geometries was incorporated into the BMT[trademark] basin modeling system. The reconstruction model is based on two basic mechanisms: (1) The ability to change lithology for a polygon (a sub-domain in the cross section) at a given time (litho-switching) and (2) the ability to inflate/deflate mass in polygons. Litho-switching is used where salt diapirs penetratemore » overlaying strata. Inflation/deflation is used to change the shape of a salt polygon. By inflating/deflating parts of polygons, it is possible to restore the salt layer step by step back to original form. The advantage of this approach is its applicability to geological problems that cannot be addressed by many basin modeling systems. To test the approach, we have reconstructed a cross-section from the Central Graben of the North Sea using two different geological models. One model assumes that synforms developed on the surface during Triassic deposition. These synforms were later preserved as sediment [open quotes]pods[close quotes]. The other geological model assumes that the salt movement was passively related to eastward basin subsidence, with salt upwelling between rafted Triassic blocks. The test indicate that the approach is versatile and can be used to evaluate the thermal consequences of a number of geologic models of salt movement.« less

Evaluation of short-term changes of hydrological response in mountainous basins of the Vitim Plateau (Russia) after forest fires based on data analysis and hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenova, O. M.; Lebedeva, L. S.; Nesterova, N. V.; Vinogradova, T. A.

2015-06-01

Twelve mountainous basins of the Vitim Plateau (Eastern Siberia, Russia) with areas ranging from 967 to 18 200 km2 affected by extensive fires in 2003 (from 13 to 78% of burnt area) were delineated based on MODIS Burned Area Product. The studied area is characterized by scarcity of hydrometeorological observations and complex hydrological processes. Combined analysis of monthly series of flow and precipitation was conducted to detect short-term fire impact on hydrological response of the basins. The idea of basin-analogues which have significant correlation of flow with "burnt" watersheds in stationary (pre-fire) period with the assumption that fire impact produced an outlier of established dependence was applied. Available data allowed for qualitative detection of fire-induced changes at two basins from twelve studied. Summer flow at the Amalat and Vitimkan Rivers (22 and 78% proportion of burnt area in 2003, respectively) increased by 40-50% following the fire.The impact of fire on flow from the other basins was not detectable.The hydrological model Hydrograph was applied to simulate runoff formation processes for stationary pre-fire and non-stationary post-fire conditions. It was assumed that landscape properties changed after the fire suggest a flow increase. These changes were used to assess the model parameters which allowed for better model performance in the post-fire period.

Orphan Basin crustal structure from a dense wide-angle seismic profile - layered modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, K. W. Helen; Watremez, Louise; Louden, Keith E.; Nedimović, Mladen R.; Karner, Garry D.

2014-05-01

The Orphan Basin is a large, deep water basin to the east of Newfoundland and northwest of Flemish Cap, Canada. It contains a considerably wide series of rift basins that provides an excellent opportunity to study continental crustal deformations under varying degrees of extension. We present a 500-km-long P-wave velocity model across the complete rift system of the Orphan Basin, from Flemish Cap to the Bonavista Platform, using high-resolution refraction and wide-angle reflection data from 89 ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS). This layered model builds on a first-arrival traveltime tomography model (Watremez et al., this session) and is formed using additional constraints from a coincident multichannel seismic reflection profile, gravity data and borehole data from three wells. The layered model helps detail deep sediment and crustal variations across this wide region of extended continental crust. The sedimentary section contains post-rift Tertiary (vp~1.7-3.5 km/s) and syn-rift Cretaceous and Jurassic (vp~4-5.4 km/s) layers within both the eastern and the western sub-basins, separated by three basement highs, suggesting that the two sub-basins may have opened during a single, extended rifting event. The crust is composed of three layers with vp of 5.4-6.1, 6.1-6.5 and 6.3-7.1 km/s of highly variable combined thicknesses, from 32 km beneath Flemish Cap and the Bonavista Platform to <10 km beneath both western and eastern sub-basins. The shape of the crustal thinning appears highly asymmetrical across the two sub-basins. Flemish Cap crust thins westward within the eastern sub-basin into a narrow zone (35 km) of hyperextended crust (<10 km thick) beneath an 8-km-deep sedimentary basin. In contrast, the Bonavista Platform crust thins eastward within the western sub-basin into a wider zone (116 km) of hyperextended crust. Separating the two rift basins is a central section with two distinctive zones of thicker (10-16 km) crust, where muted topography characterizes the eastern part and large basement highs in the western part, separated by the eastward dipping White Sail Fault cutting through the whole crust to the Moho. Higher velocities are, however, found within the lower crustal hanging wall relative to its footwall counterpart to its west. Since such structure cannot be explained by displacement along the fault alone, lateral ductile flow may be responsible for such depth-dependant stretching (DDS). Discrepancies between upper crustal thinning (γuc) and lower crustal thinning (γlc) are consistently observed, but only create a small deficit (~7% or 1.5 km) in the lower crust. Reconstruction of the North Atlantic at M0 time suggests a complex connection between Rockall Trough and the West Orphan Basin, Porcupine Bank and the East Orphan Basin, and the Central Orphan High and Porcupine Bank. Unlike the Rockall and Porcupine Basins, no evidence for partial serpentinization of the upper mantle is observed beneath the E. Orphan trough. However, hyperextension (crustal thickness < 10 km) only occurs over a very narrow zone (~ 30 km wide) in the E. Orphan trough, which might have allowed the basement to have been covered by syn-rift sediment that inhibited the flow of water down the faults.

Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relat...

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model for Simulating Winter Ozone Formation in the Uinta Basin.

EPA Science Inventory

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate a 10 day high‐ozone episode observed during the 2013 Uinta Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS). The baseline model had a large negative bias when compared to ozo...

Chapter 44: Geology and petroleum potential of the Lincoln Sea Basin, offshore North Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sorensen, K.; Gautier, D.; Pitman, Janet K.; Ruth, Jackson H.; Dahl-Jensen, T.

2011-01-01

A seismic refraction line crossing the Lincoln Sea was acquired in 2006. It proves the existence of a deep sedimentary basin underlying the Lincoln Sea. This basin appears to be comparable in width and depth to the Sverdrup Basin of the Canadian Arctic Islands. The stratigraphy of the Lincoln Sea Basin is modelled in analogy to the Sverdrup Basin and the Central Spitsbergen Basin, two basins between which the Lincoln Sea intervened before the onset of seafloor spreading in the Eurasian Basin. The refraction data indicates that the Lincoln Sea Basin is capped by a kilometre-thick, low-velocity layer, which is taken to indicate an uplift history similar to, or even more favourable than, the fairway part of the Sverdrup Basin. Tectonic activity in the Palaeogene is likely to constitute the major basin scale risk. We conclude that the Lincoln Sea Basin is likely to be petroliferous and contains risked resources on the order of 1 ?? 109 barrels of oil, to which comes an equivalent amount of (associated and nonassociated) gas. ?? 2011 The Geological Society of London.

Use of a stochastic approach for description of water balance and runoff production dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gioia, A.; Manfreda, S.; Iacobellis, V.; Fiorentino, M.

2009-04-01

The present study exploits an analytical model (Manfreda, NHESS [2008]) for the description of the probability density function of soil water balance and runoff generation over a set of river basins belonging to Southern Italy. The model is based on a stochastic differential equation where the rainfall forcing is interpreted as an additive noise in the soil water balance; the watershed heterogeneity is described exploiting the conceptual lumped watershed Xinanjiang model (widely used in China) that uses a parabolic curve for the distribution of the soil water storage capacity (Zhao et al. [1980]). The model, characterized by parameters that depend on soil, vegetation and basin morphology, allowed to derive the probability density function of the relative saturation and the surface runoff of a basin accounting for the spatial heterogeneity in soil water storage. Its application on some river basins belonging to regions of Southern Italy, gives interesting insights for the investigation of the role played by the dynamical interaction between climate, soil, and vegetation in soil moisture and runoff production dynamics. Manfreda, S., Runoff Generation Dynamics within a Humid River Basin, Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences, 8, 1349-1357, 2008. Zhao, R. -J., Zhang, Y. L., and Fang, L. R.: The Xinanjiang model, Hydrological Forecasting Proceedings Oxford Symposium, IAHS Pub. 129, 351-356, 1980.

Prediction of flow duration curves for ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atieh, Maya; Taylor, Graham; M. A. Sattar, Ahmed; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2017-02-01

This study presents novel models for prediction of flow Duration Curves (FDCs) at ungauged basins using artificial neural networks (ANN) and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) trained and tested using historical flow records from 171 unregulated and 89 regulated basins across North America. For the 89 regulated basins, FDCs were generated for both before and after flow regulation. Topographic, climatic, and land use characteristics are used to develop relationships between these basin characteristics and FDC statistical distribution parameters: mean (m) and variance (ν). The two main hypotheses that flow regulation has negligible effect on the mean (m) while it the variance (ν) were confirmed. The novel GEP model that predicts the mean (GEP-m) performed very well with high R2 (0.9) and D (0.95) values and low RAE value of 0.25. The simple regression model that predicts the variance (REG-v) was developed as a function of the mean (m) and a flow regulation index (R). The measured performance and uncertainty analysis indicated that the ANN-m was the best performing model with R2 (0.97), RAE (0.21), D (0.93) and the lowest 95% confidence prediction error interval (+0.22 to +3.49). Both GEP and ANN models were most sensitive to drainage area followed by mean annual precipitation, apportionment entropy disorder index, and shape factor.

Data-base development for water-quality modeling of the Patuxent River basin, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, G.T.; Summers, R.M.

1987-01-01

Procedures and rationale used to develop a data base and data management system for the Patuxent Watershed Nonpoint Source Water Quality Monitoring and Modeling Program of the Maryland Department of the Environment and the U.S. Geological Survey are described. A detailed data base and data management system has been developed to facilitate modeling of the watershed for water quality planning purposes; statistical analysis; plotting of meteorologic, hydrologic and water quality data; and geographic data analysis. The system is Maryland 's prototype for development of a basinwide water quality management program. A key step in the program is to build a calibrated and verified water quality model of the basin using the Hydrological Simulation Program--FORTRAN (HSPF) hydrologic model, which has been used extensively in large-scale basin modeling. The compilation of the substantial existing data base for preliminary calibration of the basin model, including meteorologic, hydrologic, and water quality data from federal and state data bases and a geographic information system containing digital land use and soils data is described. The data base development is significant in its application of an integrated, uniform approach to data base management and modeling. (Lantz-PTT)

An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

2013-12-01

Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as snowmelt hydrology, reservoir operation and groundwater dynamics. Crop yield under different water irrigation patterns have been inferred using a calibrated Cropsyst model. These crop yields together with user association irrigation constraints are used in a GAMS optimization model embedded dynamically in WEAP in order to obtain every year decisions on crop mix (including fallow land), irrigation patterns and participation in the spot water market. The GAMS optimization model has been calibrated using annual crop mix time series derived using a combination of sources of information ranging from different type of census plus satellite images. The resulting modeling platform is able to simulate under historic and future climate scenarios water availability in different locations of the basin with associated crop yield and economic consequences. The platform also allows the implementation of autonomous and planned adaptation strategies that could reduce the impacts of climate variability and climate change.

GIS/RS-based Integrated Eco-hydrologic Modeling in the East River Basin, South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kai

Land use/cover change (LUCC) has significantly altered the hydrologic system in the East River (Dongjiang) Basin. Quantitative modeling of hydrologic impacts of LUCC is of great importance for water supply, drought monitoring and integrated water resources management. An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling system of Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model (DMWBM), Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) was developed with aid of GIS/RS to quantify LUCC, to conduct physically-based ET (evapotranspiration) mapping and to predict hydrologic impacts of LUCC. To begin with, in order to evaluate LUCC, understand implications of LUCC and provide boundary condition for the integrated eco-hydrologic modeling, firstly the long-term vegetation dynamics was investigated based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, and then LUCC was analyzed with post-classification methods and finally LUCC prediction was conducted based on Markov chain model. The results demonstrate that the vegetation activities decreased significantly in summer over the years. Moreover, there were significant changes in land use/cover over the past two decades. Particularly there was a sharp increase of urban and built-up area and a significant decrease of grassland and cropland. All these indicate that human activities are intensive in the East River Basin and provide valuable information for constructing scenarios for studying hydrologic impacts of LUCC. The physically-remote-sensing-based Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) was employed to estimate areal actual ET for a large area rather than traditional point measurements . The SEBS was enhanced for application in complex vegetated area. Then the inter-comparison with complimentary ET model and distributed monthly water balance model was made to validate the enhanced SEBS (ESEBS). The application and test of ESEBS show that it has a good accuracy both monthly and annually and can be effectively applied in the East River Basin. The results of ET mapping based on ESEBS demonstrate that actual ET in the East River Basin decreases significantly in the last two decades, which is probably caused by decrease of sunshine duration. In order to effectively simulate hydrologic impact of LUCC, an integrated model of ESEBS and distributed monthly water balance model has been developed in this study. The model is capable of considering basin terrain and the spatial distribution of precipitation and soil moisture. Particularly, the model is unique in accounting for spatial and temporal variations of vegetation cover and ET, which provides a powerful tool for studying the hydrologic impacts of LUCC. The model was applied to simulate the monthly runoff for the period of 1980-1994 for model calibration and for the period of 1995-2000 for validation. The calibration and validation results show that the newly integrated model is suitable for simulating monthly runoff and studying hydrologic impacts ofLUCC in the East River Basin. Finally, the newly integrated model was firstly applied to analyze the relationship of land use and hydrologic regimes based on the land use maps in 1980 and 2000. Then the newly integrated model was applied to simulate the potential impacts of land use change on hydrologic regimes in the East River Basin under a series of hypothetical scenarios. The results show that ET has a positive relationship with Leaf Area Index (LAI) while runoff has a negative relationship with LAI in the same climatic zone, which can be elaborated by surface energy balance and water balance equation. Specifically, on an annual basis, ET of forest scenarios is larger than that of grassland or cropland scenarios. On the contrary, runoff of forest scenarios is less than that of grassland or cropland scenarios. On a monthly basis, for most of the scenarios, particularly the grassland and cropland scenarios, the most significant changes occurred in the rainy season. The results indicate that deforestation would cause increase of runoff and decrease of ET on an annual basis in the East River Basin. On a monthly basis, deforestation would cause significant decrease of ET and increase of runoff in the rainy season in the East River Basin. These results are not definitive statements as to what will happen to runoff, ET and soil moisture regimes in the East River Basin, but rather offer an insight into the plausible changes in basin hydrology due to land use change. The integrated model developed in this study and these results have significant implications for integrated water resources management and sustainable development in the East River Basin.

Geohydrology, geochemistry, and groundwater simulation (1992-2011) and analysis of potential water-supply management options, 2010-60, of the Langford Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voronin, Lois M.; Densmore, Jill N.; Martin, Peter; Brush, Charles F.; Carlson, Carl S.; Miller, David M.

2013-01-01

Groundwater withdrawals began in 1992 from the Langford Basin within the Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC), California. From April 1992 to December 2010, approximately 12,300 acre-feet of water (averaging about 650 acre-feet per year) has been withdrawn from the basin and transported to the adjacent Irwin Basin. Since withdrawals began, water levels in the basin have declined by as much as 40 feet, and the quality of the groundwater withdrawn from the basin has deteriorated. The U.S. Geological Survey collected geohydrologic data from Langford Basin during 1992–2011 to determine the quantity and quality of groundwater available in the basin. Geophysical surveys, including gravity, seismic refraction, and time-domain electromagnetic induction surveys, were conducted to determine the depth and shape of the basin, to delineate depths to the Quaternary-Tertiary interface, and to map the depth to the water table and changes in water quality. Data were collected from existing wells and test holes, as well as 11 monitor wells that were installed at 5 sites as part of this study. Water-quality samples collected from wells in the basin were used to determine the groundwater chemistry within the basin and to delineate potential sources of poor-quality groundwater. Analysis of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in groundwater indicates that present-day precipitation is not a major source of recharge to the basin. Tritium and carbon-14 data indicate that most of the basin was recharged prior to 1952, and the groundwater in the basin has an apparent age of 12,500 to 30,000 years. Recharge to the basin, estimated to be less than 50 acre-feet per year, has not been sufficient to replenish the water that is being withdrawn from the basin. A numerical groundwater-flow model was developed for the Langford Basin to better understand the aquifer system used by the Fort Irwin NTC as part of its water supply, and to provide a tool to help manage groundwater resources at the NTC. Measured groundwater-level declines since the initiation of withdrawals (1992–2011) were used to calibrate the groundwater-flow model. The simulated recharge was about 46 acre-feet per year, including approximately 6 acre-feet per year of natural recharge derived from precipitation runoff and as much as 40 acre-feet per year of underflow from the Irwin Basin. Between April 1992 and December 2010, an average of about 650 acre-feet per year of water was withdrawn from the Langford Basin. Groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge resulted in a net loss of 11,670 acre-feet of groundwater storage within the basin for the simulation period. The Fort Irwin NTC is considering various groundwater-management options to address the limited water resources in the Langford Basin. The calibrated Langford Basin groundwater-flow model was used to evaluate the hydrologic effects of four groundwater-withdrawal scenarios being considered by the Fort Irwin NTC over the next 50 years (January 2011 through December 2060). Continuation of the 2010 withdrawal rate in the three existing production wells will result in 70 feet of additional drawdown in the central part of the basin. Redistributing the 2010 withdrawal rate equally to the three existing wells and two proposed new wells in the northern and southern parts of the basin would result in about 10 feet less drawdown in the central part of the basin but about 100 feet of additional drawdown in the new well in the northern part of the basin and about 50 feet of additional drawdown in the new well in the southern part of the basin. Reducing the withdrawals from the three existing production wells in the central part of the basin from about 45,000 acre-feet to about 32,720 acre-feet would result in about 40 feet of additional drawdown in the central basin near the pumping wells, about 25 feet less than if withdrawals were not reduced. The combination of reducing and redistributing the cumulative withdrawals to the three existing and two proposed new wells results in about 40 feet of additional drawdown in the central and southern parts of the basin and about 70 feet in the northern part of the basin. These results show that reducing and redistributing the groundwater withdrawals would maintain the upper aquifer at greater than 50 percent of its predevelopment saturated thickness throughout the groundwater basin. The scenarios simulated for this study demonstrate how the calibrated model can be utilized to evaluate the hydrologic effects of different water-management strategies.

Using Logistic Regression to Predict the Probability of Debris Flows in Areas Burned by Wildfires, Southern California, 2003-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Helsel, Dennis R.

2008-01-01

Logistic regression was used to develop statistical models that can be used to predict the probability of debris flows in areas recently burned by wildfires by using data from 14 wildfires that burned in southern California during 2003-2006. Twenty-eight independent variables describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties of 306 drainage basins located within those burned areas were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows soon after the 2003 to 2006 fires were delineated from data in the National Elevation Dataset using a geographic information system; (2) Data describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were compiled for each basin. These data were then input to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression; and (3) Relations between the occurrence or absence of debris flows and the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated, and five multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combinations produced the most effective models, and the multivariate models that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows were identified. Percentage of high burn severity and 3-hour peak rainfall intensity were significant variables in all models. Soil organic matter content and soil clay content were significant variables in all models except Model 5. Soil slope was a significant variable in all models except Model 4. The most suitable model can be selected from these five models on the basis of the availability of independent variables in the particular area of interest and field checking of probability maps. The multivariate logistic regression models can be entered into a geographic information system, and maps showing the probability of debris flows can be constructed in recently burned areas of southern California. This study demonstrates that logistic regression is a valuable tool for developing models that predict the probability of debris flows occurring in recently burned landscapes.

Crustal structure and relocated earthquakes in the Puget Lowland, Washington, from high-resolution seismic tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Wagoner, T. M.; Crosson, R. S.; Creager, K. C.; Medema, G.; Preston, L.; Symons, N. P.; Brocher, T. M.

2002-12-01

The availability of regional earthquake data from the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network (PNSN), together with active source data from the Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound (SHIPS) seismic experiments, has allowed us to construct a new high-resolution 3-D, P wave velocity model of the crust to a depth of about 30 km in the central Puget Lowland. In our method, earthquake hypocenters and velocity model are jointly coupled in a fully nonlinear tomographic inversion. Active source data constrain the upper 10-15 km of the model, and earthquakes constrain the deepest portion of the model. A number of sedimentary basins are imaged, including the previously unrecognized Muckleshoot basin, and the previously incompletely defined Possession and Sequim basins. Various features of the shallow crust are imaged in detail and their structural transitions to the mid and lower crust are revealed. These include the Tacoma basin and fault zone, the Seattle basin and fault zone, the Seattle and Port Ludlow velocity highs, the Port Townsend basin, the Kingston Arch, and the Crescent basement, which is arched beneath the Lowland from its surface exposure in the eastern Olympics. Strong lateral velocity gradients, consistent with the existence of previously inferred faults, are observed, bounding the southern Port Townsend basin, the western edge of the Seattle basin beneath Dabob Bay, and portions of the Port Ludlow velocity high and the Tacoma basin. Significant velocity gradients are not observed across the southern Whidbey Island fault, the Lofall fault, or along most of the inferred location of the Hood Canal fault. Using improved earthquake locations resulting from our inversion, we determined focal mechanisms for a number of the best recorded earthquakes in the data set, revealing a complex pattern of deformation dominated by general arc-parallel regional tectonic compression. Most earthquakes occur in the basement rocks inferred to be the lower Tertiary Crescent formation. The sedimentary basins and the eastern part of the Olympic subduction complex are largely devoid of earthquakes. Clear association of hypocenters and focal mechanisms with previously mapped or proposed faults is difficult; however, seismicity, structure, and focal mechanisms associated with the Seattle fault zone suggest a possible high-angle mode of deformation with the north side up. We suggest that this deformation may be driven by isostatic readjustment of the Seattle basin.

Crustal structure and relocated earthquakes in the Puget Lowland, Washington, from high-resolution seismic tomography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Wagoner, T. M.; Crosson, R.S.; Creager, K.C.; Medema, G.; Preston, L.; Symons, N.P.; Brocher, T.M.

2002-01-01

The availability of regional earthquake data from the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network (PNSN), together with active source data from the Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound (SHIPS) seismic experiments, has allowed us to construct a new high-resolution 3-D, P wave velocity model of the crust to a depth of about 30 km in the central Puget Lowland. In our method, earthquake hypocenters and velocity model are jointly coupled in a fully nonlinear tomographic inversion. Active source data constrain the upper 10-15 km of the model, and earthquakes constrain the deepest portion of the model. A number of sedimentary basins are imaged, including the previously unrecognized Muckleshoot basin, and the previously incompletely defined Possession and Sequim basins. Various features of the shallow crust are imaged in detail and their structural transitions to the mid and lower crust are revealed. These include the Tacoma basin and fault zone, the Seattle basin and fault zone, the Seattle and Port Ludlow velocity highs, the Port Townsend basin, the Kingston Arch, and the Crescent basement, which is arched beneath the Lowland from its surface exposure in the eastern Olympics. Strong lateral velocity gradients, consistent with the existence of previously inferred faults, are observed, bounding the southern Port Townsend basin, the western edge of the Seattle basin beneath Dabob Bay, and portions of the Port Ludlow velocity high and the Tacoma basin. Significant velocity gradients are not observed across the southern Whidbey Island fault, the Lofall fault, or along most of the inferred location of the Hood Canal fault. Using improved earthquake locations resulting from our inversion, we determined focal mechanisms for a number of the best recorded earthquakes in the data set, revealing a complex pattern of deformation dominated by general arc-parallel regional tectonic compression. Most earthquakes occur in the basement rocks inferred to be the lower Tertiary Crescent formation. The sedimentary basins and the eastern part of the Olympic subduction complex are largely devoid of earthquakes. Clear association of hypocenters and focal mechanisms with previously mapped or proposed faults is difficult; however, seismicity, structure, and focal mechanisms associated with the Seattle fault zone suggest a possible high-angle mode of deformation with the north side up. We suggest that this deformation may be driven by isostatic readjustment of the Seattle basin.

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change in the Tana River Basin, Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthuwatta, Lal; Sood, Aditya; McCartney, Matthew; Sandeepana Silva, Nishchitha; Opere, Alfred

2018-06-01

In the Tana River Basin in Kenya, six Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) simulating two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., 4.5 and 8.5) were used as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to determine the possible implications for the hydrology and water resources of the basin. Four hydrological characteristics - water yield, groundwater recharge, base flow and flow regulation - were determined and mapped throughout the basin for three 30-year time periods: 2020-2049, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. Results were compared with a baseline period, 1983-2011. All four hydrological characteristics show steady increases under both RCPs for the entire basin but with considerable spatial heterogeneity and greater increases under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5. The results have important implications for the way water resources in the basin are managed. It is imperative that water managers and policy makers take into account the additional challenges imposed by climate change in operating built infrastructure.

Origins, characteristics, controls, and economic viabilities of deep- basin gas resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Price, L.C.

1995-01-01

Dry-gas deposits (methane ???95% of the hydrocarbon (HC) gases) are thought to originate from in-reservoir thermal cracking of oil and C2+ HC gases to methane. However, because methanes from Anadarko Basin dry-gas deposits do not carry the isotopic signature characteristics of C15+ HC destruction, an origin of these methanes from this process is considered improbable. Instead, the isotopic signature of these methanes suggests that they were cogenerated with C15+ HC's. Only a limited resource of deep-basin gas deposits may be expected by the accepted model for the origin of dry-gas deposits because of a limited number of deep-basin oil deposits originally available to be thermally converted to dry gas. However, by the models of this paper (inefficient source-rock oil and gas expulsion, closed fluid systems in petroleum-basin depocenters, and most dry-gas methane cogenerated with C15+ HC's), very large, previously unrecognized, unconventional, deep-basin gas resources are expected. -from Author

A Collaborative Effort Between Caribbean States for Tsunami Numerical Modeling: Case Study CaribeWave15

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia; López-Venegas, Alberto; Sánchez-Escobar, Rónald; Luque-Vergara, Néstor

2018-04-01

Historical records have shown that tsunami have affected the Caribbean region in the past. However infrequent, recent studies have demonstrated that they pose a latent hazard for countries within this basin. The Hazard Assessment Working Group of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS (Intergovernmental Coordination Group of the Early Warning System for Tsunamis and Other Coastal Threats for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions) of IOC/UNESCO has a modeling subgroup, which seeks to develop a modeling platform to assess the effects of possible tsunami sources within the basin. The CaribeWave tsunami exercise is carried out annually in the Caribbean region to increase awareness and test tsunami preparedness of countries within the basin. In this study we present results of tsunami inundation using the CaribeWave15 exercise scenario for four selected locations within the Caribbean basin (Colombia, Costa Rica, Panamá and Puerto Rico), performed by tsunami modeling researchers from those selected countries. The purpose of this study was to provide the states with additional results for the exercise. The results obtained here were compared to co-seismic deformation and tsunami heights within the basin (energy plots) provided for the exercise to assess the performance of the decision support tools distributed by PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center), the tsunami service provider for the Caribbean basin. However, comparison of coastal tsunami heights was not possible, due to inconsistencies between the provided fault parameters and the modeling results within the provided exercise products. Still, the modeling performed here allowed to analyze tsunami characteristics at the mentioned states from sources within the North Panamá Deformed Belt. The occurrence of a tsunami in the Caribbean may affect several countries because a great variety of them share coastal zones in this basin. Therefore, collaborative efforts similar to the one presented in this study, particularly between neighboring countries, are critical to assess tsunami hazard and increase preparedness within the countries.

A Collaborative Effort Between Caribbean States for Tsunami Numerical Modeling: Case Study CaribeWave15

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia; López-Venegas, Alberto; Sánchez-Escobar, Rónald; Luque-Vergara, Néstor

2017-10-01

Historical records have shown that tsunami have affected the Caribbean region in the past. However infrequent, recent studies have demonstrated that they pose a latent hazard for countries within this basin. The Hazard Assessment Working Group of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS (Intergovernmental Coordination Group of the Early Warning System for Tsunamis and Other Coastal Threats for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions) of IOC/UNESCO has a modeling subgroup, which seeks to develop a modeling platform to assess the effects of possible tsunami sources within the basin. The CaribeWave tsunami exercise is carried out annually in the Caribbean region to increase awareness and test tsunami preparedness of countries within the basin. In this study we present results of tsunami inundation using the CaribeWave15 exercise scenario for four selected locations within the Caribbean basin (Colombia, Costa Rica, Panamá and Puerto Rico), performed by tsunami modeling researchers from those selected countries. The purpose of this study was to provide the states with additional results for the exercise. The results obtained here were compared to co-seismic deformation and tsunami heights within the basin (energy plots) provided for the exercise to assess the performance of the decision support tools distributed by PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center), the tsunami service provider for the Caribbean basin. However, comparison of coastal tsunami heights was not possible, due to inconsistencies between the provided fault parameters and the modeling results within the provided exercise products. Still, the modeling performed here allowed to analyze tsunami characteristics at the mentioned states from sources within the North Panamá Deformed Belt. The occurrence of a tsunami in the Caribbean may affect several countries because a great variety of them share coastal zones in this basin. Therefore, collaborative efforts similar to the one presented in this study, particularly between neighboring countries, are critical to assess tsunami hazard and increase preparedness within the countries.

Scaling up watershed model parameters--Flow and load simulations of the Edisto River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Clark, Jimmy M.; Bradley, Paul M.; Conrads, Paul

2014-01-01

The Edisto River is the longest and largest river system completely contained in South Carolina and is one of the longest free flowing blackwater rivers in the United States. The Edisto River basin also has fish-tissue mercury concentrations that are some of the highest recorded in the United States. As part of an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to expand the understanding of relations among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations within the Edisto River basin, analyses and simulations of the hydrology of the Edisto River basin were made with the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL). The potential for scaling up a previous application of TOPMODEL for the McTier Creek watershed, which is a small headwater catchment to the Edisto River basin, was assessed. Scaling up was done in a step-wise process beginning with applying the calibration parameters, meteorological data, and topographic wetness index data from the McTier Creek TOPMODEL to the Edisto River TOPMODEL. Additional changes were made with subsequent simulations culminating in the best simulation, which included meteorological and topographic wetness index data from the Edisto River basin and updated calibration parameters for some of the TOPMODEL calibration parameters. Comparison of goodness-of-fit statistics between measured and simulated daily mean streamflow for the two models showed that with calibration, the Edisto River TOPMODEL produced slightly better results than the McTier Creek model, despite the significant difference in the drainage-area size at the outlet locations for the two models (30.7 and 2,725 square miles, respectively). Along with the TOPMODEL hydrologic simulations, a visualization tool (the Edisto River Data Viewer) was developed to help assess trends and influencing variables in the stream ecosystem. Incorporated into the visualization tool were the water-quality load models TOPLOAD, TOPLOAD-H, and LOADEST. Because the focus of this investigation was on scaling up the models from McTier Creek, water-quality concentrations that were previously collected in the McTier Creek basin were used in the water-quality load models.

Modeling the Sedimentary Infill of Lakes in the East African Rift: A Case Study of Multiple versus Single Rift Basin Segments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Scholz, C. A.

2016-12-01

The sedimentary basins in the East African Rift are considered excellent modern examples for investigating sedimentary infilling and evolution of extensional systems. Some lakes in the western branch of the rift have formed within single-segment systems, and include Lake Albert and Lake Edward. The largest and oldest lakes developed within multi-segment systems, and these include Lake Tanganyika and Lake Malawi. This research aims to explore processes of erosion and sedimentary infilling of the catchment area in single-segment rift (SSR) and multi-segment rift (MSR) systems. We consider different conditions of regional precipitation and evaporation, and assess the resulting facies architecture through forward modeling, using state-of-the-art commercial basin modeling software. Dionisos is a three-dimensional numerical stratigraphic forward modeling software program, which simulates basin-scale sediment transport based on empirical water- and gravity-driven diffusion equations. It was classically used to quantify the sedimentary architecture and basin infilling of both marine siliciclastic and carbonate environments. However, we apply this approach to continental rift basin environments. In this research, two scenarios are developed, one for a MSR and the other for a SSR. The modeled systems simulate the ratio of drainage area and lake surface area observed in modern Lake Tanganyika and Lake Albert, which are examples of MSRs and SSRs, respectively. The main parameters, such as maximum subsidence rate, water- and gravity-driven diffusion coefficients, rainfall, and evaporation, are approximated using these real-world examples. The results of 5 million year model runs with 50,000 year time steps show that MSRs are characterized by a deep water lake with relatively modest sediment accumulation, while the SSRs are characterized by a nearly overfilled lake with shallow water depths and thick sediment accumulation. The preliminary modeling results conform to the features of sedimentary infills revealed by seismic reflection data acquired in Lake Tanganyika and Lake Albert. Future models will refine the parameters of rainfall and evaporation in these two scenarios to better evaluate detailed basin facies architecture.

Campaign datasets for Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAMAZON)

DOE Data Explorer

Martin,Scot; Mei,Fan; Alexander,Lizabeth; Artaxo,Paulo; Barbosa,Henrique; Bartholomew,Mary Jane; Biscaro,Thiago; Buseck,Peter; Chand,Duli; Comstock,Jennifer; Dubey,Manvendra; Godstein,Allen; Guenther,Alex; Hubbe,John; Jardine,Kolby; Jimenez,Jose-Luis; Kim,Saewung; Kuang,Chongai; Laskin,Alexander; Long,Chuck; Paralovo,Sarah; Petaja,Tuukka; Powers,Heath; Schumacher,Courtney; Sedlacek,Arthur; Senum,Gunnar; Smith,James; Shilling,John; Springston,Stephen; Thayer,Mitchell; Tomlinson,Jason; Wang,Jian; Xie,Shaocheng

2016-05-30

The hydrologic cycle of the Amazon Basin is one of the primary heat engines of the Southern Hemisphere. Any accurate climate model must succeed in a good description of the Basin, both in its natural state and in states perturbed by regional and global human activities. At the present time, however, tropical deep convection in a natural state is poorly understood and modeled, with insufficient observational data sets for model constraint. Furthermore, future climate scenarios resulting from human activities globally show the possible drying and the eventual possible conversion of rain forest to savanna in response to global climate change. Based on our current state of knowledge, the governing conditions of this catastrophic change are not defined. Human activities locally, including the economic development activities that are growing the population and the industry within the Basin, also have the potential to shift regional climate, most immediately by an increment in aerosol number and mass concentrations, and the shift is across the range of values to which cloud properties are most sensitive. The ARM Climate Research Facility in the Amazon Basin seeks to understand aerosol and cloud life cycles, particularly the susceptibility to cloud aerosol precipitation interactions, within the Amazon Basin.

Study plan for the regional aquifer-system analysis of alluvial basins in south-central Arizona and adjacent states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, T.W.

1980-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has started a 4-year study of the alluvial basins in south-central Arizona and parts of California , Nevada, and New Mexico to describe the hydrologic setting, available groundwater resources, and effects of historical development on the groundwater system. To aid in the study, mathematical models of selected basins will be developed for appraising local and regional flow systems. Major components necessary to accomplish the study objectives include the accumulation of existing data on groundwater quantity and quality, entering the data into a computer file, identification of data deficiencies, and development of a program to remedy the deficiencies by collection of additional data. The approach to the study will be to develop and calibrate models of selected basins for which sufficient data exist and to develop interpretation-transfer techniques whereby general predevelopment and postdevelopment conceptual models of the hydrologic system in other basins may be synthesized. The end result of the project will be a better definition of the hydrologic parameters and a better understanding of the workings of the hydrologic system. The models can be used to study the effects of management alternatives and water-resources development on the system. (USGS)

The watershed and river systems management program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, S.L.; Frevert, D.; Leavesley, G.H.; ,

2005-01-01

The Watershed and River System Management Program (WaRSMP), a joint effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), is focused on research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among diverse water resource management demands. Considerations include: (1) legal and political constraints; (2) stake holder and consensus-building; (3) sound technical knowledge; (4) flood control, consumptive use, and hydropower; (5) water transfers; (6) irrigation return flows and water quality; (7) recreation; (8) habitat for endangered species; (9) water supply and proration; (10) near-surface groundwater; and (11) water ownership, accounting, and rights. To address the interdisciplinary and multi-stake holder needs of real-time watershed management, WaRSMP has developed a decision support system toolbox. The USGS Object User Interface facilitates the coupling of Reclamation's RiverWare reservoir operations model with the USGS Modular Modeling and Precipitation Runoff Modeling Systems through a central database. This integration is accomplished through the use of Model and Data Management Interfaces. WaRSMP applications include Colorado River Main stem and Gunnison Basin, the Yakima Basin, the Middle Rio Grande Basin, the Truckee-Carson Basin, and the Umatilla Basin.

The Effect of Sedimentary Basins on Through-Passing Short-Period Surface Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, L.; Ritzwoller, M. H.

2017-12-01

Surface waves propagating through sedimentary basins undergo elastic wave field complications that include multiple scattering, amplification, the formation of secondary wave fronts, and subsequent wave front healing. Unless these effects are accounted for accurately, they may introduce systematic bias to estimates of source characteristics, the inference of the anelastic structure of the Earth, and ground motion predictions for hazard assessment. Most studies of the effects of basins on surface waves have centered on waves inside the basins. In contrast, we investigate wave field effects downstream from sedimentary basins, with particular emphasis on continental basins and propagation paths, elastic structural heterogeneity, and Rayleigh waves at 10 s period. Based on wave field simulations through a recent 3D crustal and upper mantle model of East Asia, we demonstrate significant Rayleigh wave amplification downstream from sedimentary basins in eastern China such that Ms measurements obtained on the simulated wave field vary by more than a magnitude unit. We show that surface wave amplification caused by basins results predominantly from elastic focusing and that amplification effects produced through 3D basin models are reproduced using 2D membrane wave simulations through an appropriately defined phase velocity map. The principal characteristics of elastic focusing in both 2D and 3D simulations include (1) retardation of the wave front inside the basins; (2) deflection of the wave propagation direction; (3) formation of a high amplitude lineation directly downstream from the basin bracketed by two low amplitude zones; and (4) formation of a secondary wave front. Finally, by comparing the impact of elastic focusing with anelastic attenuation, we argue that on-continent sedimentary basins are expected to affect surface wave amplitudes more strongly through elastic focusing than through the anelastic attenuation.

Contrasting styles of seafloor spreading in the Woodlark Basin: Indications of rift-induced secondary mantle convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MartíNez, Fernando; Taylor, Brian; Goodliffe, Andrew M.

1999-06-01

The Woodlark Basin in the southwest Pacific is a young ocean basin which began forming by ˜6 Ma following the rifting of continental and arc lithosphere. The N-S striking Moresby Transform divides the oceanic basin into eastern and western parts which have contrasting characteristics. Seafloor spreading west of Moresby Transform began after ˜2 Ma, and although spreading rates decrease to the west, the western basin has faster spreading characteristics than the eastern basin. These include (1) ˜500 m shallower seafloor; (2) Bouguer gravity anomalies that are >30 mGals lower; (3) magnetic anomaly and modeled seafloor magnetization amplitudes that are higher; (4) a spreading center with an axial high in contrast to the axial valleys of the eastern basin; (5) smoother seafloor fabric; and (6) exclusively nontransform spreading center offsets in contrast to the eastern basin, which has transform faults and fracture zones that extend across most of the basin. Overall depth contrasts and Bouguer anomalies can be matched by end-member models of thicker crust (˜2 km) or thinner lithosphere (<1/3) in the western basin. Correlated with these contrasts, the surrounding rifted margins abruptly thicken westward of the longitude of Moresby Transform. We examine alternative explanations for these contrasts and propose that rift-induced secondary mantle convection driven by thicker western margin lithosphere is most consistent with the observations. Although rift-induced convection has been cited as a cause for the voluminous excess magmatism at some rifted margins, the observations in the Woodlark Basin suggest that this mechanism may significantly affect the morphology, structure, and geophysical characteristics of young ocean basins in alternate ways which resemble increased spreading rate.

Thermal history of Bakken shale in Williston basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gosnold, W.D. Jr.; Lefever, R.D.; Crashell, J.J.

1989-12-01

Stratigraphic and thermal conductivity data were combined to analyze the thermostratigraphy of the Williston basin. The present thermostratigraphy is characterized by geothermal gradients of the order of 60 mK/m in the Cenozoic and Mesozoic units, and 30 mK/m in the Paleozoic units. The differences in geothermal gradients are due to differences in thermal conductivities between the shale-dominated Mesozoic and Cenozoic units and the carbonate-dominated Paleozoic units. Subsidence and compaction rates were calculated for the basin and were used to determine models for time vs. depth and time vs. thermal conductivity relationships for the basin. The time/depth and time/conductivity relationships includemore » factors accounting for thermal conductivity changes due to compaction, cementation, and temperature. The thermal history of the Bakken shale, a primary oil source rock in the Williston basin, was determined using four different models, and values for Lopatin's time-temperature index (TTI) were calculated for each model. The first model uses a geothermal gradient calculated from bottom-hole temperature data, the second uses present-day thermostratigraphy, the third uses the thermostratigraphic relationship determined in this analysis, and the fourth modifies the third by including assumed variations in continental heat flow. The thermal histories and the calculated TTI values differ markedly among the models with TTI values differing by a factor of about two between some models.« less

Improvement in precipitation-runoff model simulations by recalibration with basin-specific data, and subsequent model applications, Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.

2011-01-01

Simulation of streamflows in small subbasins was improved by adjusting model parameter values to match base flows, storm peaks, and storm recessions more precisely than had been done with the original model. Simulated recessional and low flows were either increased or decreased as appropriate for a given stream, and simulated peak flows generally were lowered in the revised model. The use of suspended-sediment concentrations rather than concentrations of the surrogate constituent, total suspended solids, resulted in increases in the simulated low-flow sediment concentrations and, in most cases, decreases in the simulated peak-flow sediment concentrations. Simulated orthophosphate concentrations in base flows generally increased but decreased for peak flows in selected headwater subbasins in the revised model. Compared with the original model, phosphorus concentrations simulated by the revised model were comparable in forested subbasins, generally decreased in developed and wetland-dominated subbasins, and increased in agricultural subbasins. A final revision to the model was made by the addition of the simulation of chloride (salt) concentrations in the Onondaga Creek Basin to help water-resource managers better understand the relative contributions of salt from multiple sources in this particular tributary. The calibrated revised model was used to (1) compute loading rates for the various land types that were simulated in the model, (2) conduct a watershed-management analysis that estimated the portion of the total load that was likely to be transported to Onondaga Lake from each of the modeled subbasins, (3) compute and assess chloride loads to Onondaga Lake from the Onondaga Creek Basin, and (4) simulate precolonization (forested) conditions in the basin to estimate the probable minimum phosphorus loads to the lake.

System Dynamics Modeling of Transboundary Systems: The Bear River Basin Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerald Sehlke; Jake Jacobson

2005-09-01

System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to evaluating the interrelationships of different components and activities within complex systems. Recently, system dynamics models have been developed in areas such as policy design, biological and medical modeling, energy and the environmental analysis, and in various other areas in the natural and social sciences. The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, a multi-purpose national laboratory managed by the Department of Energy, has developed a systems dynamics model in order to evaluate its utility for modeling large complex hydrological systems. We modeled the Bear River Basin, a transboundary basin that includes portions of Idaho,more » Utah and Wyoming. We found that system dynamics modeling is very useful for integrating surface water and groundwater data and for simulating the interactions between these sources within a given basin. In addition, we also found system dynamics modeling is useful for integrating complex hydrologic data with other information (e.g., policy, regulatory and management criteria) to produce a decision support system. Such decision support systems can allow managers and stakeholders to better visualize the key hydrologic elements and management constraints in the basin, which enables them to better understand the system via the simulation of multiple “what-if” scenarios. Although system dynamics models can be developed to conduct traditional hydraulic/hydrologic surface water or groundwater modeling, we believe that their strength lies in their ability to quickly evaluate trends and cause–effect relationships in large-scale hydrological systems; for integrating disparate data; for incorporating output from traditional hydraulic/hydrologic models; and for integration of interdisciplinary data, information and criteria to support better management decisions.« less

System Dynamics Modeling of Transboundary Systems: the Bear River Basin Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerald Sehlke; Jacob J. Jacobson

2005-09-01

System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to evaluating the interrelationships of different components and activities within complex systems. Recently, system dynamics models have been developed in areas such as policy design, biological and medical modeling, energy and the environmental analysis, and in various other areas in the natural and social sciences. The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, a multi-purpose national laboratory managed by the Department of Energy, has developed a systems dynamics model in order to evaluate its utility for modeling large complex hydrological systems. We modeled the Bear River Basin, a transboundary basin that includes portions of Idaho,more » Utah and Wyoming. We found that system dynamics modeling is very useful for integrating surface water and ground water data and for simulating the interactions between these sources within a given basin. In addition, we also found system dynamics modeling is useful for integrating complex hydrologic data with other information (e.g., policy, regulatory and management criteria) to produce a decision support system. Such decision support systems can allow managers and stakeholders to better visualize the key hydrologic elements and management constraints in the basin, which enables them to better understand the system via the simulation of multiple “what-if” scenarios. Although system dynamics models can be developed to conduct traditional hydraulic/hydrologic surface water or ground water modeling, we believe that their strength lies in their ability to quickly evaluate trends and cause–effect relationships in large-scale hydrological systems; for integrating disparate data; for incorporating output from traditional hydraulic/hydrologic models; and for integration of interdisciplinary data, information and criteria to support better management decisions.« less

A groundwater convection model for Rio Grande rift geothermal resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgan, P.; Harder, V.; Daggett, P. H.; Swanberg, C. A.

1981-01-01

It has been proposed that forced convection, driven by normal groundwater flow through the interconnected basins of the Rio Grande rift is the primary source mechanism for the numerous geothermal anomalies along the rift. A test of this concept using an analytical model indicates that significant forced convection must occur in the basins even if permeabilities are as low as 50-200 millidarcies at a depth of 2 km. Where groundwater flow is constricted at the discharge areas of the basins forced convection can locally increase the gradient to a level where free convection also occurs, generating surface heat flow anomalies 5-15 times background. A compilation of groundwater data for the rift basins shows a strong correlation between constrictions in groundwater flow and hot springs and geothermal anomalies, giving strong circumstantial support to the convection model.

Structure of the Tucson Basin, Arizona from gravity and aeromagnetic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rystrom, Victoria Louise

2003-01-01

Interpretation of gravity and high-resolution aeromagnetic data reveal the three-dimensional geometry of the Tuscson Basin, Arizona and the lithology of its basement. Limited drill hole and seismic data indicate that the maximum depth to the crystalline basement is approximately 3600 meters and that the sedimentary sequences in the upper ~2000 m of the basin were deposited during the most recent extensional episode that commenced about 13 Ma. The negative density contrasts between these upper Neogene and Quaternary sedimentary sequences and the adjacent country rock produce a Bouguer residual gravity low, whose steep gradients clearly define the lateral extent of the upper ~2000m of the basin. The aeromagnetic maps show large positive anomalies associated with deeply buried, late Cretaceous-early Tertiary and mid-Tertiary igneous rocks at and below the surface of the basin. These magnetic anomalies provide insight into the older (>13 Ma) and deeper structures of the basin. Simultaneous 2.5-dimensional modeling of both gravity and magnetic anomalies constrained by geologic and seismic data delineates the thickness of the basin and the dips of the buried faults that bound the basin. This geologic-based forward modeling approach to using geophysical data is shown to result in more information about the geologic and tectonic history of the basin as well as more accurate depth to basement determinations than using generalized geophysical inversion techniques.

Observing mass exchange with the Lofoten Basin using surface drifters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dugstad, Johannes S.; LaCasce, Joe; Koszalka, Inga M.; Fer, Ilker

2017-04-01

The Lofoten Basin in the Nordic Seas plays a central role in the global overturning circulation, acting as a reservoir for northward-flowing Atlantic water. Substantial heat loss occurs here, permitting the waters to become denser and eventually sink nearer the Arctic. Idealized modeling studies and theoretical arguments suggest the warm water enters the Lofoten Basin via eddy transport from the boundary current over the adjacent continental slope. But there is no observational evidence that this is the major contribution to mass exchange between the warm Atlantic Current and the Basin. How the basin waters exit also remains a mystery. Surface drifters offer an unique possibility to study the pathways of the boundary-basin exchange of mass and heat. We thereby examine trajectories of surface drifters released in the Nordic Seas in the POLEWARD and PROVOLO experiments, and supplemented by historical data from the Global Drifter Array. Contrary to the idea that the boundary current eddies are the main source, the results suggest that fluid is entering the Lofoten Basin from all sides. However, the drifters exit preferentially in the northeast corner of the basin. This asymmetry likely contributes to the extended residence times of the warm Atlantic waters in the Lofoten Basin. We consider various measures to quantify the effect, and test whether this is captured in a high resolution numerical model.

Sensitive analysis of low-flow parameters using the hourly hydrological model for two mountainous basins in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujimura, Kazumasa; Iseri, Yoshihiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Murakami, Masahiro

2014-05-01

Accurate estimation of low flow can contribute to better water resources management and also lead to more reliable evaluation of climate change impacts on water resources. In the early study, the nonlinearity of low flow related to the storage in the basin was suggested by Horton (1937) as the exponential function of Q=KSN, where Q is the discharge, S is the storage, K is a constant and N is the exponent value. In the recent study by Ding (2011) showed the general storage-discharge equation of Q = KNSN. Since the constant K is defined as the fractional recession constant and symbolized as Au by Ando et al. (1983), in this study, we rewrite this equation as Qg=AuNSgN, where Qg is the groundwater runoff and Sg is the groundwater storage. Although this equation was applied to a short-term runoff event of less than 14 hours using the unit hydrograph method by Ding, it was not yet applied for a long-term runoff event including low flow more than 10 years. This study performed a sensitive analysis of two parameters of the constant Au and exponent value N by using the hourly hydrological model for two mountainous basins in Japan. The hourly hydrological model used in this study was presented by Fujimura et al. (2012), which comprise the Diskin-Nazimov infiltration model, groundwater recharge and groundwater runoff calculations, and a direct runoff component. The study basins are the Sameura Dam basin (SAME basin) (472 km2) located in the western Japan which has variability of rainfall, and the Shirakawa Dam basin (SIRA basin) (205km2) located in a region of heavy snowfall in the eastern Japan, that are different conditions of climate and geology. The period of available hourly data for the SAME basin is 20 years from 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2010, and for the SIRA basin is 10 years from 1 October 2003 to 30 September 2013. In the sensitive analysis, we prepared 19900 sets of the two parameters of Au and N, the Au value ranges from 0.0001 to 0.0100 in steps of 0.0001 and the N value ranges from 1.0 to 100.0 in steps of 0.5. The analysis was evaluated by the Average of Daily runoff Relative Error (ADRE). The results showed that the minimum value of the ADRE is 32.199% using N=100.0 and Au=0.0003 for the SAME basin, and is 38.058% using N=0.0003 and Au=70.0 for the SIRA basin. Log-log plot for optimal sets of Au and N suggested accurate simulation of low flow can be achieved when relation of Au and N are in exponential form. The equations are Au=1/{26.91N1.041} and Au=1/{34.55N1.060} for each basin, which have similar gradients, but have different intercept on the log-log graph. From this study, it is found that the optimal sets of Au and N, which obtained lower relative error in the hydrological analysis, are formulated using the exponent equation. Acknowledgements This work was supported by the Research Program on Climate Change Adaption (the RECCA Project) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. References Ding, J. Y. (2011) A measure of watershed nonlinearity: interpreting a variable instantaneous unit hydrograph model on two vastly different sized watersheds. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 405-423. Fujimura, K., Shiraha, K., Kanae, S. & Murakami, M. (2012) Development of the hourly hydrological model for mountainous basins using the storage function method and the Diskin-Nazimov infiltration model. In: Models - Repositories of Knowledge, IAHS Publ. 355, 338-344. Horton, R. E. (1936) Natural stream channel-storage. Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 17, 406-415. Ando, Y., Musiake, K. & Takahasi, Y. (1983) Modelling of hydrologic processes in a small natural hillslope basin, based on the synthesis of partial hydrological relationships. Journal of Hydrology, 64, 311-337.

Modeling Groundwater Flow System of a Drainage Basin in the Basement Complex Environment of Southwestern Nigera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinwumiju, Akinola S.; Olorunfemi, Martins O.

2018-05-01

This study attempted to model the groundwater flow system of a drainage basin within the Basement Complex environment of Southwestern Nigeria. Four groundwater models were derived from Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) Data, remotely sensed data, geological information (hydrolineaments and lithology) and borehole data. Subsequently, two sub-surface (local and regional) flow systems were delineated in the study area. While the local flow system is controlled by surface topography, the regional flow system is controlled by the networks of intermediate and deep seated faults/fractures. The local flow system is characterized by convergence, divergence, inflow and outflow in places, while the regional flow system is dominated by NNE-SSW and W-E flow directions. Minor flow directions include NNW-SSE and E-W with possible linkages to the main flow-paths. The NNE-SSW regional flow system is a double open ended flow system with possible linkage to the Niger Trough. The W-E regional flow system is a single open ended system that originates within the study area (with possible linkage to the NNE-SSW regional flow system) and extends to Ikogosi in the adjoining drainage basin. Thus, the groundwater drainage basin of the study area is much larger and extensive than its surface drainage basin. The all year round flowing (perennial) rivers are linked to groundwater outcrops from faults/fractures and contact zones. Consequently, larger percentage of annual rainwater usually leaves the basin in form of runoff and base flow. Therefore, the basin is categorized as a donor basin but with suspected subsurface water input at its northeastern axis.

Hydrogeological framework and geometry modeling via joint gravity and borehole parameters, the Nadhour-Sisseb-El Alem basin (central-eastern Tunisia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souei, Ali; Atawa, Mohamed; Zouaghi, Taher

2018-03-01

The Nadhour-Sisseb-El Alem basin, in the central-eastern part of Tunisia, is characterized by the scarcity of surface and subsurface water resources. Although the aquifer systems of this basin are not well understood, the scarce water resources are subject to a high rate of exploitation leading to a significant drop in the level of the water table. This work presents correlation of gravity data with hydrogeological data in order to improve the knowledge of the deep structures and aquifer systems. Various geophysical filtering techniques (e.g., residual anomaly, upward continuation, horizontal gradient, and Euler deconvolution) applied to the complete Bouguer anomaly, deduce the deep structures and geometry of the basin and highlight gravity lineaments that correspond to the tectonic features. The structural framework of the Nadhour-Sisseb-El Alem hydrogeological basin shows N-S to NNE-SSW and E-W oriented structures that should be related to tectonic deformations. In addition to the faults, previously recognized, new lineaments are highlighted by the present work. They correspond to NE-, NW-, E- and N- trending faults that have controlled structuring and geometry of the basin. 2D gravity forward modeling, based on the interpretation of geophysical, geological and hydrogeological data, led to a better understanding of the basin geometry and spatial distribution of the Campanian-Maastrichtian and Cenozoic potential aquifers. Three hydrogeological sub-basins identified include the Nadhour sub-basin in the north, the El Alem sub-Basin in the South and the Etrabelsia sub-Basin in the East. These sub-basins are marked by a thickening of deposits, are separated by the Sisseb-Fadeloun raised structure of Neogene and Quaternary thinned series. The results allow the determination of limit conditions for the basin hydrodynamic evolution and explain some anomalies on the quantity and quality of the groundwater. They provide a management guide for water resources prospection in Atlassic basins in North Africa.

The Tethys Rifting of the Valencia Trough Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viñas, Marina; Ranero, César R.; Cameselle, Alejandra L.

2017-04-01

The western Mediterranean submarine realm is composed of several basin inferred to be formed by a common geodynamic process: upper plate extension during slab rollback of a retreating subduction zone. Although the time evolution of the geometry of the trenches is debated, all models assume that basins opened sequentially from NW (Gulf of Lions) towards the SE (Ligurian-Provençal and later Tyrrhenian basins) and SW (Valencia Trough and later Algerian-South Balearic and Alboran Basin) as trenches migrated. Basin opening history is key to reconstruct kinematics of slab retreat preferred in each model. However, the deep structure of basins is inadequately known due to the paucity of modern wide-angle and multichannel reflection seismic studies across entire systems, and absence of deep drilling in the deep-water regions of the basins, as a result, much of the opening evolution is inferred from indirect evidence. In the Valencia Trough Basin (VTB), drilling and vintage seismic data provide good knowledge of the shallow geology of the basin. However, crustal-scale information across the entire VTB has been limited to two studies (Figure 1): One in the late 80's (Valsis experiment) with three Expanded Spread Profiles that yielded local 1D velocity/depth models used to constrain 2D gravity modeling, and a few multichannel seismic profiles along the Iberian shelf and across segments of the basin. A second study in the early 90's (ESCI experiment) collected a low-resolution deep-penetration multichannel seismic reflection profile across the basin and a coincident wide-angle seismic line with numerous land stations in Iberia but a handful of widely-spaced Ocean Bottom Seismometers. In the absence of modern detailed crustal structure, the origin and evolution of the VTB is still debated. Industry multichannel seismic reflection profiles cover the SW segment of the VTB. This is a region where the basin sea floor is comparatively shallower and has numerous industry wells reaching deep into the sediment sequence, which provides an unprecedented view of the tectonic structure and distribution of synrift deposits across the entire basin, from the Iberian to the North Balearic margin (Figure 2). Here we first show that the seismic records provide full crustal-scale information. Later we discuss the tectonic and sedimentary structure that supports that crustal stretching and basin formation of the VTB occurred fundamentally during the Mesozoic times by strike-slip tectonics and not during Tertiary times by back-arc extension. We show that the current sea floor morphological configuration giving rise to the so-called Valencia Trough does not represent the changes in crystalline basement thickness related to rifting, but fundamentally a product of sediment dynamics, particularly by the development during post-Messinian times of the Ebro-river delta. Our results are significant to understand Tethyan rifting and need to be considered for plate kinematic reconstructions of the western Mediterranean.

Informing a hydrological model of the Ogooué with multi-mission remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittel, Cecile M. M.; Nielsen, Karina; Tøttrup, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2018-02-01

Remote sensing provides a unique opportunity to inform and constrain a hydrological model and to increase its value as a decision-support tool. In this study, we applied a multi-mission approach to force, calibrate and validate a hydrological model of the ungauged Ogooué river basin in Africa with publicly available and free remote sensing observations. We used a rainfall-runoff model based on the Budyko framework coupled with a Muskingum routing approach. We parametrized the model using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model (SRTM DEM) and forced it using precipitation from two satellite-based rainfall estimates, FEWS-RFE (Famine Early Warning System rainfall estimate) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 v.7, and temperature from ECMWF ERA-Interim. We combined three different datasets to calibrate the model using an aggregated objective function with contributions from (1) historical in situ discharge observations from the period 1953-1984 at six locations in the basin, (2) radar altimetry measurements of river stages by Envisat and Jason-2 at 12 locations in the basin and (3) GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) total water storage change (TWSC). Additionally, we extracted CryoSat-2 observations throughout the basin using a Sentinel-1 SAR (synthetic aperture radar) imagery water mask and used the observations for validation of the model. The use of new satellite missions, including Sentinel-1 and CryoSat-2, increased the spatial characterization of river stage. Throughout the basin, we achieved good agreement between observed and simulated discharge and the river stage, with an RMSD between simulated and observed water amplitudes at virtual stations of 0.74 m for the TRMM-forced model and 0.87 m for the FEWS-RFE-forced model. The hydrological model also captures overall total water storage change patterns, although the amplitude of storage change is generally underestimated. By combining hydrological modeling with multi-mission remote sensing from 10 different satellite missions, we obtain new information on an otherwise unstudied basin. The proposed model is the best current baseline characterization of hydrological conditions in the Ogooué in light of the available observations.

Petroleum-resource appraisal and discovery rate forecasting in partially explored regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drew, Lawrence J.; Schuenemeyer, J.H.; Root, David H.; Attanasi, E.D.

1980-01-01

PART A: A model of the discovery process can be used to predict the size distribution of future petroleum discoveries in partially explored basins. The parameters of the model are estimated directly from the historical drilling record, rather than being determined by assumptions or analogies. The model is based on the concept of the area of influence of a drill hole, which states that the area of a basin exhausted by a drill hole varies with the size and shape of targets in the basin and with the density of previously drilled wells. It also uses the concept of discovery efficiency, which measures the rate of discovery within several classes of deposit size. The model was tested using 25 years of historical exploration data (1949-74) from the Denver basin. From the trend in the discovery rate (the number of discoveries per unit area exhausted), the discovery efficiencies in each class of deposit size were estimated. Using pre-1956 discovery and drilling data, the model accurately predicted the size distribution of discoveries for the 1956-74 period. PART B: A stochastic model of the discovery process has been developed to predict, using past drilling and discovery data, the distribution of future petroleum deposits in partially explored basins, and the basic mathematical properties of the model have been established. The model has two exogenous parameters, the efficiency of exploration and the effective basin size. The first parameter is the ratio of the probability that an actual exploratory well will make a discovery to the probability that a randomly sited well will make a discovery. The second parameter, the effective basin size, is the area of that part of the basin in which drillers are willing to site wells. Methods for estimating these parameters from locations of past wells and from the sizes and locations of past discoveries were derived, and the properties of estimators of the parameters were studied by simulation. PART C: This study examines the temporal properties and determinants of petroleum exploration for firms operating in the Denver basin. Expectations associated with the favorability of a specific area are modeled by using distributed lag proxy variables (of previous discoveries) and predictions from a discovery process model. In the second part of the study, a discovery process model is linked with a behavioral well-drilling model in order to predict the supply of new reserves. Results of the study indicate that the positive effects of new discoveries on drilling increase for several periods and then diminish to zero within 2? years after the deposit discovery date. Tests of alternative specifications of the argument of the distributed lag function using alternative minimum size classes of deposits produced little change in the model's explanatory power. This result suggests that, once an exploration play is underway, favorable operator expectations are sustained by the quantity of oil found per time period rather than by the discovery of specific size deposits. When predictions of the value of undiscovered deposits (generated from a discovery process model) were substituted for the expectations variable in models used to explain exploration effort, operator behavior was found to be consistent with these predictions. This result suggests that operators, on the average, were efficiently using information contained in the discovery history of the basin in carrying out their exploration plans. Comparison of the two approaches to modeling unobservable operator expectations indicates that the two models produced very similar results. The integration of the behavioral well-drilling model and discovery process model to predict the additions to reserves per unit time was successful only when the quarterly predictions were aggregated to annual values. The accuracy of the aggregated predictions was also found to be reasonably robust to errors in predictions from the behavioral well-drilling equation.

Water Temperature changes in the Mississippi River Basin

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, we demonstrate the transfer of a physically based semi-Lagrangian water temperature model (RBM) to EPA, its linkage with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, and its calibration to and demonstration for the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). The r...

Natural analogs in the petroleum industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, J.R.

1995-09-01

This article describes the use of natural analogues in petroleum exploration and includes numerous geologic model descriptions which have historically been used in the prediction of geometries and location of oil and gas accumulations. These geologic models have been passed down to and used by succeeding generations of petroleum geologists. Some examples of these geologic models include the Allan fault-plane model, porosity prediction, basin modelling, prediction of basin compartmentalization, and diagenesis.

Flood Inundation Modelling in the Kuantan River Basin using 1D-2D Flood Modeller coupled with ASTER-GDEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, Z. F.; Gisen, J. I.; Akbari, A.

2018-03-01

Topography dataset is an important input in performing flood inundation modelling. However, it is always difficult to obtain high resolution topography that provide accurate elevation information. Fortunately, there are some open source topography datasets available with reasonable resolution such as SRTM and ASTER-GDEM. In Malaysia particularly in Kuantan, the modelling research on the floodplain area is still lacking. This research aims to: a) to investigate the suitability of ASTER-GDEM to be applied in the 1D-2D flood inundation modelling for the Kuantan River Basin; b) to generate flood inundation map for Kuantan river basin. The topography dataset used in this study is ASTER-GDEM to generate physical characteristics of watershed in the basin. It is used to perform rainfall runoff modelling for hydrological studies and to delineate flood inundation area in the Flood Modeller. The results obtained have shown that a 30m resolution ASTER-GDEM is applicable as an input for the 1D-2D flood modelling. The simulated water level in 2013 has NSE of 0.644 and RSME of 1.259. As a conclusion, ASTER-GDEM can be used as one alternative topography datasets for flood inundation modelling. However, the flood level obtained from the hydraulic modelling shows low accuracy at flat urban areas.

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Guadalquivir River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeste Donaire, P.; García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, M.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change has lead to a decrease of precipitation and an increase of temperature in the Mediterranean Basin during the last fifty years. These changes will be more intense over the course of the 21thcentury according to global climate projections. As a consequence, water resources are expected to decrease, particularly in the Guadalquivir River Basin. This study focuses on the hydrological response of the Guadalquivir River Basin to the climate change. For this end, firstly, the implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in the Basin was carried out. The VIC model was calibrated with a dataset of daily precipitation, temperature and streamflow for the period 1990-2000. Precipitation and temperature data were extracted from SPAIN02, a dataset that covers the Peninsular Spain at 0.11º of spatial resolution. Streamflow data were gathered for a representative subset of gauging stations in the basin. These data were provided by the Spanish Center for Public Work Experimentation and Study (CEDEX). Subsequently, the VIC model was validated for the period 2000-2005 in order to verify that the model outputs fit well with the observational data. After the validation of the VIC model for present climate, secondly, the effect of climate change on the Guadalquivir River Basin will be analyzed by developing several simulations of the streamflow for future climate. Precipitation and temperature data will be obtained in this case from future projections coming from high resolution (at 0.088º) simulations carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the Iberian Peninsula. These last simulations will be driven under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the periods 2021-50 and 2071-2100. The first results of this work show that the VIC model outputs are in good agreement with the observed streamflow for both the calibration and validation periods. In the context of climate change, a generalized decrease in surface and subsurface water resources is expected in the Guadalquivir River Basin. All these results will be of interest for water policy makers and practitioners in the next decades. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

Towards improved parameterization of a macroscale hydrologic model in a discontinuous permafrost boreal forest ecosystem

DOE PAGES

Endalamaw, Abraham; Bolton, W. Robert; Young-Robertson, Jessica M.; ...

2017-09-14

Modeling hydrological processes in the Alaskan sub-arctic is challenging because of the extreme spatial heterogeneity in soil properties and vegetation communities. Nevertheless, modeling and predicting hydrological processes is critical in this region due to its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Coarse-spatial-resolution datasets used in land surface modeling pose a new challenge in simulating the spatially distributed and basin-integrated processes since these datasets do not adequately represent the small-scale hydrological, thermal, and ecological heterogeneity. The goal of this study is to improve the prediction capacity of mesoscale to large-scale hydrological models by introducing a small-scale parameterization scheme, which bettermore » represents the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties and vegetation cover in the Alaskan sub-arctic. The small-scale parameterization schemes are derived from observations and a sub-grid parameterization method in the two contrasting sub-basins of the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW) in Interior Alaska: one nearly permafrost-free (LowP) sub-basin and one permafrost-dominated (HighP) sub-basin. The sub-grid parameterization method used in the small-scale parameterization scheme is derived from the watershed topography. We found that observed soil thermal and hydraulic properties – including the distribution of permafrost and vegetation cover heterogeneity – are better represented in the sub-grid parameterization method than the coarse-resolution datasets. Parameters derived from the coarse-resolution datasets and from the sub-grid parameterization method are implemented into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) mesoscale hydrological model to simulate runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in the two sub-basins of the CPCRW. Simulated hydrographs based on the small-scale parameterization capture most of the peak and low flows, with similar accuracy in both sub-basins, compared to simulated hydrographs based on the coarse-resolution datasets. On average, the small-scale parameterization scheme improves the total runoff simulation by up to 50 % in the LowP sub-basin and by up to 10 % in the HighP sub-basin from the large-scale parameterization. This study shows that the proposed sub-grid parameterization method can be used to improve the performance of mesoscale hydrological models in the Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds.« less

Towards improved parameterization of a macroscale hydrologic model in a discontinuous permafrost boreal forest ecosystem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Endalamaw, Abraham; Bolton, W. Robert; Young-Robertson, Jessica M.

Modeling hydrological processes in the Alaskan sub-arctic is challenging because of the extreme spatial heterogeneity in soil properties and vegetation communities. Nevertheless, modeling and predicting hydrological processes is critical in this region due to its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Coarse-spatial-resolution datasets used in land surface modeling pose a new challenge in simulating the spatially distributed and basin-integrated processes since these datasets do not adequately represent the small-scale hydrological, thermal, and ecological heterogeneity. The goal of this study is to improve the prediction capacity of mesoscale to large-scale hydrological models by introducing a small-scale parameterization scheme, which bettermore » represents the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties and vegetation cover in the Alaskan sub-arctic. The small-scale parameterization schemes are derived from observations and a sub-grid parameterization method in the two contrasting sub-basins of the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW) in Interior Alaska: one nearly permafrost-free (LowP) sub-basin and one permafrost-dominated (HighP) sub-basin. The sub-grid parameterization method used in the small-scale parameterization scheme is derived from the watershed topography. We found that observed soil thermal and hydraulic properties – including the distribution of permafrost and vegetation cover heterogeneity – are better represented in the sub-grid parameterization method than the coarse-resolution datasets. Parameters derived from the coarse-resolution datasets and from the sub-grid parameterization method are implemented into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) mesoscale hydrological model to simulate runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in the two sub-basins of the CPCRW. Simulated hydrographs based on the small-scale parameterization capture most of the peak and low flows, with similar accuracy in both sub-basins, compared to simulated hydrographs based on the coarse-resolution datasets. On average, the small-scale parameterization scheme improves the total runoff simulation by up to 50 % in the LowP sub-basin and by up to 10 % in the HighP sub-basin from the large-scale parameterization. This study shows that the proposed sub-grid parameterization method can be used to improve the performance of mesoscale hydrological models in the Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds.« less

Hydrogeology and ground-water flow in the carbonate rocks of the Little Lehigh Creek basin, Lehigh County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, R.A.; Cecil, L.D.; Senior, L.A.

1991-01-01

The Little Lehigh Creek basin is underlain mainly by a complex assemblage of highly-deformed Cambrian and Ordovician carbonate rocks. The Leithsville Formation, Allentown Dolomite, Beekmantown Group, and Jacksonburg Limestone act as a single hydrologic unit. Ground water moves through fractures and other secondary openings and generally is under water-table conditions. Median annual ground-water discharge (base flow) to Little Lehigh Creek near Allentown (station 01451500) during 1946-86 was 12.97 inches or 82 percent of streamflow. Average annual recharge for 1975-83 was 21.75 inches. Groundwater and surface-water divides do not coincide in the basin. Ground-water underflow from the Little Lehigh Creek basin to the Cedar Creek basin in 1987 was 4 inches per year. A double-mass curve analysis of the relation of cumulative precipitation at Allentown to the flow of Schantz Spring for 1956-84 showed that cessation of quarry pumping and development of ground water for public supply in the Schantz Spring basin did not affect the flow of Schantz Spring. Ground-water flow in the Little Lehigh Creek basin was simulated using a finite-difference, two-dimensional computer model. The geologic units in the modeled area were simulated as a single water-table aquifer. The 134-squaremile area of carbonate rocks between the Lehigh River and Sacony Creek was modeled to include the natural hydrologic boundaries of the ground-water-flow system. The ground-water-flow model was calibrated under steady-state conditions using 1975-83 average recharge, evapotranspiration, and pumping rates. Each geologic unit was assigned a different hydraulic conductivity. Initial aquifer hydraulic conductivity was estimated from specific-capacity data. The average (1975-83) water budget for the Little Lehigh Creek basin was simulated. The simulated base flow from the carbonate rocks of the Little Lehigh Creek basin above gaging station 01451500 is 11.85 inches per year. The simulated ground-water underflow from the Little Lehigh Creek basin to the Cedar Creek basin is 4.04 inches per year. For steady-state calibration, the root-mean-squared difference between observed and simulated heads was 21.19 feet. The effects of increased ground-water development on base flow and underflow out of the Little Lehigh Creek basin for average and drought conditions were simulated by locating a hypothetical well field in different parts of the basin. Steady-state simulations were used to represent equilibrium conditions, which would be the maximum expected long-term effect. Increased ground-water development was simulated as hypothetical well fields pumping at the rate of 15, 25, and 45 million gallons per day in addition to existing ground-water withdrawals. Four hypothetical well fields were located near and away from Little Lehigh Creek in upstream and downstream areas. The effects of pumping a well field in different parts of the Little Lehigh Creek basin were compared. Pumping a well field located near the headwaters of Little Lehigh Creek and away from the stream would have greatest effect on inducing underflow from the Sacony Greek basin and the least effect on reducing base flow and underflow to the Ceda^r Creek basin. Pumping a well field located near the headwaters of Little Leh|igh Creek near the stream would have less impact on inducing underflow from|the Sacony Creek basin and a greater impact on reducing the base flow of Little Lehigh Creek because more of the pumpage would come from diverted base flow. Pumping a well field located in the downstream area of the Little Lehigh Creek basin away from the stream would have the greatest effect on the underflow to the Cedar Creek basin. Pumping a well field located in the downstream area of the Little Lehigh Creek basin near the stream would have the greatest effect on reducing the base flow of Little Lehigh Cteek. Model simulations show that groundwater withdrawals do not cause a proportional reduction in base flow. Under average conditions, ground-water withdrawals are equal to 48 to 70 percent of simulated base-flow reductions; under drought conditions, ground-water withdrawals are equal to 35 to 73 percent of simulated base-flow reductions. The hydraulic effects of pumping largely depend on well location. In the Little Lehigh basin, surface-water and ground-water divides do not coincide, and ground-water development, especially near surface-water divides, can cause ground-water divides to shift and induce ground-water underflow from adjacent basins. Large-scale ground-water pumping in a basin may not produce expected reductions of base flow in that basin because of shifts in the ground-water divide; however, such shifts can reduce base flow in adjacent surface-water basins. 

Capturing interactions between nitrogen and hydrological cycles under historical climate and land use: Susquehanna watershed analysis with the GFDL land model LM3-TAN

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, M.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, Paul C. D.; Jaffé, P. R.

2014-01-01

We developed a process model LM3-TAN to assess the combined effects of direct human influences and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic nitrogen (TAN) cycling. The model was developed by expanding NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land model LM3V-N of coupled terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (C-N) cycling and including new N cycling processes and inputs such as a soil denitrification, point N sources to streams (i.e., sewage), and stream transport and microbial processes. Because the model integrates ecological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes, it captures key controls of the transport and fate of N in the vegetation–soil–river system in a comprehensive and consistent framework which is responsive to climatic variations and land-use changes. We applied the model at 1/8° resolution for a study of the Susquehanna River Basin. We simulated with LM3-TAN stream dissolved organic-N, ammonium-N, and nitrate-N loads throughout the river network, and we evaluated the modeled loads for 1986–2005 using data from 16 monitoring stations as well as a reported budget for the entire basin. By accounting for interannual hydrologic variability, the model was able to capture interannual variations of stream N loadings. While the model was calibrated with the stream N loads only at the last downstream Susquehanna River Basin Commission station Marietta (40°02' N, 76°32' W), it captured the N loads well at multiple locations within the basin with different climate regimes, land-use types, and associated N sources and transformations in the sub-basins. Furthermore, the calculated and previously reported N budgets agreed well at the level of the whole Susquehanna watershed. Here we illustrate how point and non-point N sources contributing to the various ecosystems are stored, lost, and exported via the river. Local analysis of six sub-basins showed combined effects of land use and climate on soil denitrification rates, with the highest rates in the Lower Susquehanna Sub-Basin (extensive agriculture; Atlantic coastal climate) and the lowest rates in the West Branch Susquehanna Sub-Basin (mostly forest; Great Lakes and Midwest climate). In the re-growing secondary forests, most of the N from non-point sources was stored in the vegetation and soil, but in the agricultural lands most N inputs were removed by soil denitrification, indicating that anthropogenic N applications could drive substantial increase of N2O emission, an intermediate of the denitrification process.

The Streambank Erosion Control Evaluation and Demonstration Act of 1974, Section 32, Public Law 93-251. Appendix A. Literature Survey.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

Creek, Russian River Basin, Sonoma County , California; Hydraulic Model Investigation," Technical Report H-73-3, U. S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment...Springs Dam, Dry Creek, Russian River Basin, Sonoma County , Cali- fornia; Hydraulic Model Investigation," Technical Report H-73-3, U. S. Army Engineer...Structures Ables, J. H., Jr., and Pickering, G. A. 1973 (Feb). "Outlet Works, 0 Warm Springs Dam, Dry Creek, Russian River Basin, Sonoma County , Cali

A comparison of the South China Sea and Canada Basin: two small marginal ocean basins with hyper-extended margins and central zones of sea-floor spreading.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.

2015-12-01

Both the South China Sea and Canada Basin preserve oceanic spreading centres and adjacent passive continental margins characterized by broad COT zones with hyper-extended continental crust. We have investigated the nature of strain accommodation in the regions immediately adjacent to the oceanic spreading centres in these two basins using 2-D backstripping subsidence reconstructions, coupled with forward modelling constrained by estimates of upper crustal extensional faulting. Modelling is better constrained in the South China Sea but our results for the Beaufort Sea are analogous. Depth-dependent extension is required to explain the great depth of both basins because only modest upper crustal faulting is observed. A weak lower crust in the presence of high heat flow is suggested for both basins. Extension in the COT may continue even after sea-floor spreading has ceased. The analogous results for the two basins considered are discussed in terms of (1) constraining the timing and distribution of crustal thinning along the respective continental margins, (2) defining the processes leading to hyper-extension of continental crust in the respective tectonic settings and (3) illuminating the processes that control hyper-extension in these basins and more generally.

Digital spatial data for predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the Southwest Principal Aquifers study area

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKinney, Tim S.; Anning, David W.

2012-01-01

This product "Digital spatial data for predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the Southwest Principal Aquifers study area" is a 1:250,000-scale vector spatial dataset developed as part of a regional Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study (Anning and others, 2012). The study examined the vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers in the southwestern United States to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment. Statistical models were developed by using the random forest classifier algorithm to predict concentrations of nitrate and arsenic across a model grid that represents local- and basin-scale measures of source, aquifer susceptibility, and geochemical conditions.

Electrical resistivity structures of the Kunlun-Qaidam-Qilian system at the northern Tibet and their tectonic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Qibin; Shao, Guihang; Yu, Guo; Cai, Juntao; Wang, Jijun

2016-06-01

The northern Tibetan Plateau is characterized by northwest-southeast trending basin-range systems such as the Kunlun Shan Ranges-Qaidam Basin-Qilian Shan Ranges. The Cenozoic evolution and deformation of the Qaidam Basin and its neighboring ranges are important indications for the northward growth of the Tibetan Plateau. The latest magnetotelluric data were collected along a profile in N16.5°E from the Songpan-Ganzi Block, across the Kunlun Shan Ranges, east section of the Qaidam Basin, and ending in the Qilian Shan Ranges. Both two-dimensional and three-dimensional inversions of the data along the profile were performed and the results provided new evidence for lithospheric structures in the northern Tibetan Plateau. With three-dimensional isotropic inversion codes, we are able to model the Phase Roll Out of Quadrant (PROQ) magnetotelluric data, which exist at low frequencies in a number of continuous sites at the northern Qaidam Basin. Sensitivity studies of the three-dimensional models indicate that the Qaidam Basin with low-resistivity upper crust is the major contributor for the PROQ effect, while a south-north-striking low-resistivity gap intersecting with the Qaidam Basin at its northern part affects the range of the PROQ effect. In the magnetotelluric resistivity models, the Qaidam Basin is not in symmetric structure at upper-crust level, with its depocenter near the Northern Qaidam Fault. At mid-lower crust level, the compositions of both the Kunlun Shan Ranges and the southern Qaidam Basin are of generally high-resistivity, which does not support large-scale lower-crust materials of the Songpan-Ganzi Block flow below the Kunlun Shan Ranges or the Qaidam Basin. Instead, the unsymmetrical Qaidam Basin and the shovel-shape high-resistivity anomalies in crust below the Kunlun Shan Ranges and the southern Qiadam Basin indicate the regional northward push from the Songpan-Ganzi Block. The south-deepening low-resistivity anomalies in the crust of the Qilian Shan Ranges support the existence of an intracrustal detachment, which controls the thrusts in northern Qaidam Basin and the Qilian Shan Ranges. The crustal deformation in northern Tibetan Plateau is consistent with mantle convergence or collision between the Kunlun-Qaidam lithospheric mantle and the Asian lithospheric mantle.

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin, central New Mexico, 1901-95, with projections to 2020

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kernodle, J.M.

1998-01-01

The ground-water-flow model of the Albuquerque Basin (Kernodle, J.M., McAda, D.P., and Thorn, C.R., 1995, Simulation of ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin, central New Mexico, with projections to 2020: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 94-4251, 114 p.) was updated to include new information on the hydrogeologic framework (Hawley, J.W., Haase, C.S., and Lozinsky, R.P., 1995, An underground view of the Albuquerque Basin: Proceedings of the 39th Annual New Mexico Water Conference, November 3-4, 1994, p. 37-55). An additional year of ground-water-withdrawal data was appended to the simulation of the historical period and incorporated into the base for future projections to the year 2020. The revised model projects the simulated ground-water levels associated with an aerally enlarged occurrence of the relatively high hydraulic conductivity in the upper part of the Santa Fe Group east and west of the Rio Grande in the Albuquerque area and north to Bernalillo. Although the differences between the two model versions are substantial, the revised model does not contradict any previous conclusions about the effect of City of Albuquerque ground-water withdrawals on flow in the Rio Grande or the net benefits of an effort to conserve ground water. Recent revisions to the hydrogeologic model (Hawley, J.W., Haneberg, W.C., and Whitworth, P.M., in press, Hydrogeologic investigations in the Albuquerque Basin, central New Mexico, 1992-1995: Socorro, New Mexico Bureau of Mines and Mineral Resources Open- File Report 402) of the Albuquerque Basin eventually will require that this model version also be revised and updated.

Tidally averaged circulation in Puget Sound sub-basins: Comparison of historical data, analytical model, and numerical model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khangaonkar, Tarang; Yang, Zhaoqing; Kim, Tae Yun

2011-07-20

Through extensive field data collection and analysis efforts conducted since the 1950s, researchers have established an understanding of the characteristic features of circulation in Puget Sound. The pattern ranges from the classic fjordal behavior in some basins, with shallow brackish outflow and compensating inflow immediately below, to the typical two-layer flow observed in many partially mixed estuaries with saline inflow at depth. An attempt at reproducing this behavior by fitting an analytical formulation to past data is presented, followed by the application of a three-dimensional circulation and transport numerical model. The analytical treatment helped identify key physical processes and parameters,more » but quickly reconfirmed that response is complex and would require site-specific parameterization to include effects of sills and interconnected basins. The numerical model of Puget Sound, developed using unstructured-grid finite volume method, allowed resolution of the sub-basin geometric features, including presence of major islands, and site-specific strong advective vertical mixing created by bathymetry and multiple sills. The model was calibrated using available recent short-term oceanographic time series data sets from different parts of the Puget Sound basin. The results are compared against (1) recent velocity and salinity data collected in Puget Sound from 2006 and (2) a composite data set from previously analyzed historical records, mostly from the 1970s. The results highlight the ability of the model to reproduce velocity and salinity profile characteristics, their variations among Puget Sound subbasins, and tidally averaged circulation. Sensitivity of residual circulation to variations in freshwater inflow and resulting salinity gradient in fjordal sub-basins of Puget Sound is examined.« less

Parameter regionalisation methods for a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model: application to a Northern Apennine region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neri, Mattia; Toth, Elena

2017-04-01

The study presents the implementation of different regionalisation approaches for the transfer of model parameters from similar and/or neighbouring gauged basin to an ungauged catchment, and in particular it uses a semi-distributed continuously-simulating conceptual rainfall-runoff model for simulating daily streamflows. The case study refers to a set of Apennine catchments (in the Emilia-Romagna region, Italy), that, given the spatial proximity, are assumed to belong to the same hydrologically homogeneous region and are used, alternatively, as donors and regionalised basins. The model is a semi-distributed version of the HBV model (TUWien model) in which the catchment is divided in zones of different altitude that contribute separately to the total outlet flow. The model includes a snow module, whose application in the Apennine area has been, so far, very limited, even if snow accumulation and melting phenomena do have an important role in the study basins. Two methods, both widely applied in the recent literature, are applied for regionalising the model: i) "parameters averaging", where each parameter is obtained as a weighted mean of the parameters obtained, through calibration, on the donor catchments ii) "output averaging", where the model is run over the ungauged basin using the entire set of parameters of each donor basin and the simulated outputs are then averaged. In the first approach, the parameters are regionalised independently from each other, in the second one, instead, the correlation among the parameters is maintained. Since the model is a semi-distributed one, where each elevation zone contributes separately, the study proposes to test also a modified version of the second approach ("output averaging"), where each zone is considered as an autonomous entity, whose parameters are transposed to the ungauged sub-basin corresponding to the same elevation zone. The study explores also the choice of the weights to be used for averaging the parameters (in the "parameters averaging" approach) or for averaging the simulated streamflow (in the "output averaging" approach): in particular, weights are estimated as a function of the similarity/distance of the ungauged basin/zone to the donors, on the basis of a set of geo-morphological catchment descriptors. The predictive accuracy of the different regionalisation methods is finally assessed by jack-knife cross-validation against the observed daily runoff for all the study catchments.

Hydrological system dynamics of glaciated Karnali River Basin Nepal Himalaya using J2000 Hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatiwada, K. R.; Nepal, S.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Shrestha, M.

2015-12-01

Hydrological modelling plays an important role in understanding hydrological processes of a catchment. In the context of climate change, the understanding of hydrological characteristic of the catchment is very vital to understand how the climate change will affect the hydrological regime. This research facilitates in better understanding of the hydrological system dynamics of a himalayan mountainous catchment in western Nepal. The Karnali River, longest river flowing inside Nepal, is one of the three major basins of Nepal, having the area of 45269 sq. km. is unique. The basin has steep topography and high mountains to the northern side. The 40% of the basin is dominated by forest land while other land cover are: grass land, bare rocky land etc. About 2% of the areas in basin is covered by permanent glacier apart from that about 12% of basin has the snow and ice cover. There are 34 meteorological stations distributed across the basin. A process oriented distributed J2000 hydrologial model has been applied to understand the hydrological system dynamics. The model application provides distributed output of various hydrological components. The J2000 model applies Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) as a modelling entity. With 6861 HRU and 1010 reaches, the model was calibrated (1981-1999) and validated (2000-2004) at a daily scale using split-sample test. The model is able to capture the overall hydrological dynamics well. The rising limbs and recession limbs are simulated equally and with satisfactory ground water conditions. Based on the graphical and statistical evaluation of the model performance the model is able to simulate hydrological processes fairly well. Calibration shows that Nash Sutcliffe efficiency is 0.91, coefficient of determination is 0.92 Initial observation shows that during the pre-monsoon season(March to May) the glacial runoff is 25% of the total discharge while in the monsoon(June to September) season it is only 13%. The surface runoff contributed about 40%, 20% in subsurface while there is about 13% in the base flow. For better understanding and interpretation of the area there is still need of further coherent research and analysis for land use change and future climate change impact in the glaciered alpine catchment of Himalayan region.

Simulation of Ground-Water Flow in the Middle Rio Grande Basin Between Cochiti and San Acacia, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

McAda, Douglas P.; Barroll, Peggy

2002-01-01

This report describes a three-dimensional, finite difference, ground-water-flow model of the Santa Fe Group aquifer system within the Middle Rio Grande Basin between Cochiti and San Acacia, New Mexico. The aquifer system is composed of the Santa Fe Group of middle Tertiary to Quaternary age and post-Santa Fe Group valley and basin-fill deposits of Quaternary age. Population increases in the basin since the 1940's have caused dramatic increases in ground-water withdrawals from the aquifer system, resulting in large ground-water-level declines. Because the Rio Grande is hydraulically connected to the aquifer system, these ground-water withdrawals have also decreased flow in the Rio Grande. Concern about water resources in the basin led to the development of a research plan for the basin focused on the hydrologic interaction of ground water and surface water (McAda, D.P., 1996, Plan of study to quantify the hydrologic relation between the Rio Grande and the Santa Fe Group aquifer system near Albuquerque, central New Mexico: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 96-4006, 58 p.). A multiyear research effort followed, funded and conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies (Bartolino, J.R., and Cole, J.C., 2002, Ground-water resources of the Middle Rio Grande Basin, New Mexico: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1222, 132 p.). The modeling work described in this report incorporates the results of much of this work and is the culmination of this multiyear study. The purpose of the model is (1) to integrate the components of the ground-water-flow system, including the hydrologic interaction between the surface-water systems in the basin, to better understand the geohydrology of the basin and (2) to provide a tool to help water managers plan for and administer the use of basin water resources. The aquifer system is represented by nine model layers extending from the water table to the pre-Santa Fe Group basement rocks, as much as 9,000 feet below the NGVD 29. The horizontal grid contains 156 rows and 80 columns, each spaced 3,281 feet (1 kilometer) apart. The model simulates predevelopment steady-state conditions and historical transient conditions from 1900 to March 2000 in 1 steady-state and 52 historical stress periods. Average annual conditions are simulated prior to 1990, and seasonal (winter and irrigation season) conditions are simulated from 1990 to March 2000. The model simulates mountain-front, tributary, and subsurface recharge; canal, irrigation, and septic-field seepage; and ground-water withdrawal as specified-flow boundaries. The model simulates the Rio Grande, riverside drains, Jemez River, Jemez Canyon Reservoir, Cochiti Lake, riparian evapotranspiration, and interior drains as head-dependent flow boundaries. Hydrologic properties representing the Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the ground-water-flow model are horizontal hydraulic conductivity, vertical hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and specific yield. Variable horizontal anisotropy is applied to the model so that hydraulic conductivity in the north-south direction (along model columns) is greater than hydraulic conductivity in the east-west direction (along model rows) over much of the model. This pattern of horizontal anisotropy was simulated to reflect the generally north-south orientation of faulting over much of the modeled area. With variable horizontal anisotropy, horizontal hydraulic conductivities in the model range from 0.05 to 60 feet per day. Vertical hydraulic conductivity is specified in the model as a horizontal to vertical anisotropy ratio (calculated to be 150:1 in the model) multiplied by the horizontal hydraulic conductivity along rows. Specific storage was estimated to be 2 x 10-6 per foot in the model. Specific yield was estimated to be 0.2 (dimensionless). A ground-water-flow model is a tool that can integrate the complex interactions of hydrologic boundary conditions, aquifer materials

Planning and design of studies for river-quality assessment in the Truckee and Carson River basins, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nowlin, Jon O.; Brown, W.M.; Smith, L.H.; Hoffman, R.J.

1980-01-01

The objectives of the Geological Survey 's river-quality assessment in the Truckee and Carson River basins in California and Nevada are to identify the significant resource management problems; to develop techniques to assess the problems; and to effectively communicate results to responsible managers. Six major elements of the assessment to be completed by October 1981 are (1) a detailing of the legal, institutional, and structural development of water resources in the basins and the current problems and conflicts; (2) a compilation and synthesis of the physical hydrology of the basins; (3) development of a special workshop approach to involve local management in the direction and results of the study; (4) development of a comprehensive streamflow model emcompassing both basins to provide a quantitative hydrologic framework for water-quality analysis; (5) development of a water-quality transport model for selected constituents and characteristics on selected reaches of the Truckee River; and (6) a detailed examination of selected fish habitats for specified reaches of the Truckee River. Progress will be periodically reported in reports, maps, computer data files, mathematical models, a bibliography, and public presentations. In building a basic framework to develop techniques, the basins were viewed as a single hydrologic unit because of interconnecting diversion structures. The framework comprises 13 hydrographic subunits to facilitate modeling and sampling. Several significant issues beyond the scope of the assessment were considered as supplementary proposals; water-quality loadings in Truckee and Carson Rivers, urban runoff in Reno and management alternatives, and a model of limnological processes in Lahontan Reservoir. (USGS)

Understanding High Wintertime Ozone Events over an Oil and Natural Gas Production Region from Air Quality Model Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadov, R.; McKeen, S. A.; Trainer, M.; Banta, R. M.; Brown, S. S.; Edwards, P. M.; Frost, G. J.; Gilman, J.; Helmig, D.; Johnson, B.; Karion, A.; Koss, A.; Lerner, B. M.; Oltmans, S. J.; Roberts, J. M.; Schnell, R. C.; Veres, P. R.; Warneke, C.; Williams, E. J.; Wild, R. J.; Yuan, B.; Zamora, R. J.; Petron, G.; De Gouw, J. A.; Peischl, J.

2014-12-01

The huge increase in production of oil and natural gas has been associated with high wintertime ozone events over some parts of the western US. The Uinta Basin, UT, where oil and natural gas production is abundant experienced high ozone concentrations in winters of recent years, when cold stagnant weather conditions were prevalent. It has been very challenging for conventional air quality models to accurately simulate such wintertime ozone pollution cases. Here, a regional air quality model study was successfully conducted for the Uinta Basin by using the WRF-Chem model. For this purpose a new emission dataset for the region's oil/gas sector was built based on atmospheric in-situ measurements made during 2012 and 2013 field campaigns in the Uinta Basin. The WRF-Chem model demonstrates that the major factors driving high ozone in the Uinta Basin in winter are shallow boundary layers with light winds, high emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) compared to nitrogen oxides emissions from the oil and natural gas industry, enhancement of photolysis rates and reduction of O3 dry deposition due to snow cover. We present multiple sensitivity simulations to quantify the contribution of various factors driving high ozone over the Uinta Basin. The emission perturbation simulations show that the photochemical conditions in the Basin during winter of 2013 were VOC sensitive, which suggests that targeting VOC emissions would be most beneficial for regulatory purposes. Shortcomings of the emissions within the most recent US EPA (NEI-2011, version 1) inventory are also discussed.

Soil erodibility mapping using the RUSLE model to prioritize erosion control in the Wadi Sahouat basin, North-West of Algeria.

PubMed

Toubal, Abderrezak Kamel; Achite, Mohammed; Ouillon, Sylvain; Dehni, Abdelatif

2018-03-12

Soil losses must be quantified over watersheds in order to set up protection measures against erosion. The main objective of this paper is to quantify and to map soil losses in the Wadi Sahouat basin (2140 km 2 ) in the north-west of Algeria, using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model assisted by a Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing. The Model Builder of the GIS allowed the automation of the different operations for establishing thematic layers of the model parameters: the erosivity factor (R), the erodibility factor (K), the topographic factor (LS), the crop management factor (C), and the conservation support practice factor (P). The average annual soil loss rate in the Wadi Sahouat basin ranges from 0 to 255 t ha -1  year -1 , maximum values being observed over steep slopes of more than 25% and between 600 and 1000 m elevations. 3.4% of the basin is classified as highly susceptible to erosion, 4.9% with a medium risk, and 91.6% at a low risk. Google Earth reveals a clear conformity with the degree of zones to erosion sensitivity. Based on the soil loss map, 32 sub-basins were classified into three categories by priority of intervention: high, moderate, and low. This priority is available to sustain a management plan against sediment filling of the Ouizert dam at the basin outlet. The method enhancing the RUSLE model and confrontation with Google Earth can be easily adapted to other watersheds.

Comparative study of compensation mechanism of lunar impact basins from new gravity field model of SELENE (Kaguya)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Namiki, N.; Sugita, S.; Matsumoto, K.; Goossens, S.; Ishihara, Y.; Noda, H.; Ssasaki, S.; Iwata, T.; Hanada, H.; Araki, H.

2009-04-01

The gravity field is a fundamental physical quantity for the study of the internal structure and the evolution of planetary bodies. The most significant problem of the previous lunar gravity models, however, is the lack of direct observations of the far side gravity signals [1]. We then developed a satellite-to-satellite Doppler tracking sub-system for SELENE [2]. In this study, we adopt our new gravity field model with nearly full coverage of the lunar far side to discuss dichotomy of the lunar basins. Because all the nearside impact basins are filled with extensive mare basalt deposits, it is difficult to estimate the subsurface structures, such as uplift of the Moho surface, from gravity measurements. In contrast, far-side impact basins have much less or no mare basalt coverage. This may allow us to investigate the internal structure underneath impact basins. Such knowledge will be important in understanding the response of a solid planetary body to large meteoritic impacts and also the thermal state of the Moon during the late heavy bombardment period. There are distinctive differences between the anomalies of the near side principal mascons and the far side basins. As shown previously [1, 3], the near side principal mascons have sharp shoulders with a gravity plateau and a weakly negative gravity anomaly in the surroundings. In contrast, the far side basins are characterized by concentric rings of positive and negative anomalies. The circular gravity highs agree well with the topographic rims of the basins revealed by SELENE topography model STM-359_grid-02 [4]. In our gravity model, Orientale, Mendel-Rydberg, Lorentz, and Humboldtianum show more affinity with the far side basins than the near side principal mascons [5]. Korolev, Mendeleev, Planck, and Lorentz basins have sharp central peaks of which magnitude in free-air anomalies is almost equivalent to the one in Bouguer anomalies. On the other hand, Orientale, Mendel-Rydberg, Humboldtianum, Moscoviense, and Freundlich-Sharonov basins have a broad peak of which magnitude in free-air anomalies is 20 to 60 % smaller than the one in Bouguer anomalies. We call the former basins Type I and the latter Type II. The central gravity high of Type I basins in Bouguer anomalies suggests the existence of excess mass below the center. Because mare fill is absent from Type I basins, the central gravity high is most likely a manifestation of mantle uplift beneath the basin. The peak height of positive Bouguer anomalies of Type II ranges from 400 to 900 mGal in comparison to those in free-air anomalies from 250 to 500 mGal. This difference can be attributed to local compensation at the center of the Type II basins. We propose a brittle deformation resulting from a load of uplifted mantle. Little relation between the class and formation age is found. On the other hand, there are fewer large lunar basins on the far side. It is unlikely that large impacts concentrated on one side of the Moon and smaller impacts on the other side, as crater diameter depends mostly on impacting energy and momentum, not the properties of the target [6]. A plausible hypothesis is that the primary mascon basins on the near side have deformed more after their initial formation. References: [1] A. S. Konopliv et al., Icarus, 150, 1 (2001). [2] T. Iwata et al., JGSJ, 47, 558 (2001). [3] F. G. Lemoine et al., JGR, 102, 16,339, (1997). [4] H. Araki et al., submitted to Science (2009). [5] N. Namiki et al., accepted by Science (2009). [6] H. J. Melosh, Impact Cratering: A Geologic Process (1989).

Discharge forecasts in mountain basins based on satellite snow cover mapping. [Dinwoody Creek Basin, Wyoming and the Dischma Basin, Switzerland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martinec, J.; Rango, A. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A snow runoff model developed for European mountain basins was used with LANDSAT imagery and air temperature data to simulate runoff in the Rocky Mountains under conditions of large elevation range and moderate cloud cover (cloud cover of 40% or less during LANDSAT passes 70% of the time during a snowmelt season). Favorable results were obtained for basins with area not exceeding serval hundred square kilometers and with a significant component of subsurface runoff.

SE Great Basin Play Fairway Analysis

DOE Data Explorer

Adam Brandt

2015-11-15

This submission includes a Na/K geothermometer probability greater than 200 deg C map, as well as two play fairway analysis (PFA) models. The probability map acts as a composite risk segment for the PFA models. The PFA models differ in their application of magnetotelluric conductors as composite risk segments. These PFA models map out the geothermal potential in the region of SE Great Basin, Utah.

Use of high resolution remotely sensed evapotranspiration retrievals for calibration of a process-based hydrologic model in data-poor basins

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Calibration of process-based hydrologic models is a challenging task in data-poor basins, where monitored hydrologic data are scarce. In this study, we present a novel approach that benefits from remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data to calibrate a complex watershed model, namely the Soil and...

Predicting the Total Abundance of Resident Salmonids within the Willamette River Basin, Oregon - a Macroecological Modeling Approach

EPA Science Inventory

I present a simple, macroecological model of fish abundance that was used to estimate the total number of non-migratory salmonids within the Willamette River Basin (western Oregon). The model begins with empirical point estimates of net primary production (NPP in g C/m2) in fore...

Orientale Impact Basin: Topographic Characterization from Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) Data and Implications for Models of Basin Formation and Filling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, James; Smith, David; Zuber, Maria; Neumann, Gregory; Fassett, Caleb; Whitten, Jennifer; Garrick-Bethell, Ian

2010-05-01

The 920 km diameter Orientale basin is the youngest and most well-preserved large multi-ringed impact basin on the Moon; it has not been significantly filled with mare basalts, as have other lunar impact basins, and thus the basin interior deposits and ring structures are very well-exposed and provide major insight into the formation and evolution of planetary multi-ringed impact basins. We report here on the acquisition of new altimetry data for the Orientale basin from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) on board the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Pre-basin structure had a major effect on the formation of Orientale; we have mapped dozens of impact craters underlying both the Orientale ejecta (Hevelius Formation-HF) and the unit between the basin rim (Cordillera ring-CR) and the Outer Rook ring (OR) (known as the Montes Rook Formation-MRF), ranging up in size to the 630 km diameter Mendel-Rydberg basin just to the south of Orientale; this crater-basin topography has influenced the topographic development of the basin rim (CR), sometimes causing the basin rim to lie at a topographically lower level than the inner basin rings (OR and Inner Rook-IR). In contrast to some previous interpretations, the distribution of these features supports the interpretation that the OR ring is the closest approximation to the basin excavation cavity. The total basin interior topography is highly variable and typically ranges ~6-7 km below the surrounding pre-basin surface, with significant variations in different quadrants. The inner basin depression is about 2-4 km deep below the IR plateau. These data aid in the understanding of the transition from peak-ring to multi-ringed basins and permit the quantitative assessment of post-basin-formation thermal response to impact energy input and uplifted isotherms. The Maunder Formation (MF) consists of smooth plains (on the inner basin depression walls and floor) and corrugated deposits (on the IR plateau); also observed are depressions interpreted to be due to local drainage, and cracks related to cooling and solidification. This configuration supports the interpretation that the MF consists of different facies of impact melt. The location of vents, the altimetric distribution, and the slopes of mare basalts of different ages permit an assessment of basin controls on mare basalt emplacement. The inner depression is floored by tilted mare basalt deposits surrounding a central pre-mare high of several hundred meters elevation and deformed by wrinkle ridges with similar topographic heights; these data permit the assessment of basin loading by mare basalts and ongoing basin thermal evolution. LOLA data for the Orientale basin thus provide new insight into models of multi-ring basin formation, important information on their early thermal evolution, and new data on the initial stages of mare basalt flooding of multi-ringed basins.

Ethiopian Central Rift Valley basin hydrologic modelling using HEC-HMS and ArcSWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascual-Ferrer, Jordi; Candela, Lucila; Pérez-Foguet, Agustí

2013-04-01

An Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) shall be applied to achieve a sustainable development, to increase population incomes without affecting lives of those who are highly dependent on the environment. First step should be to understand water dynamics at basin level, starting by modeling the basin water resources. For model implementation, a large number of data and parameters are required, but those are not always available, especially in some developing countries where different sources may have different data, there is lack of information on data collection, etc. The Ethiopian Central Rift Valley (CRV) is an endorheic basin covering an area of approximately 10,000 km2. For the period 1996-2005, the average annual volume of rainfall accounted for 9.1 Mm3, and evapotranspiration for 8 Mm3 (Jansen et al., 2007). From the environmental point of view, basin ecosystems are endangered due to human activities. Also, poverty is widespread all over the basin, with population mainly living from agriculture on a subsistence economy. Hence, there is an urgent need to set an IWRM, but datasets required for water dynamics simulation are not too reliable. In order to reduce uncertainty of numerical simulation, two semi-distributed open software hydrologic models were implemented: HEC-HMS and ArcSWAT. HEC-HMS was developed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACoE) Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) to run precipitation-runoff simulations for a variety of applications in dendritic watershed systems. ArcSWAT includes the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, Arnold et al., 1998) model developed for the USDA Agricultural Research Service into ArcGIS (ESRI®). SWAT was developed to assess the impact of land management practices on large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time (Neitsch et al., 2005). According to this, ArcSWAT would be the best option for IWRM implementation in the basin. However, considering data uncertainty and model complexity a previous hydrologic assessment of the basin based in HEC-HMS simulation is advisable. As a first approach HEC-HMS was implemented for basin modeling in order to get physical parameters of interest, results from HEC-HMS calibration were used to setup the accuracy of the ArcSWAT numerical modelling. References Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R.S. & Williams, J.R. (1998). Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment Part I: Model Development. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 73-89. Jansen, H., Hengsdijk, H., Legesse, D., Ayenew, T., Hellegers, P. & Spliethoff, P. (2007). Land and water resources assessment in the Ethiopian Central Rift Valley. In Alterra report 1587. Wageningen: Alterra. p. 81. Neitsch, S.L., Arnold, J.G., Kiniry, J.R. & Williams, J.R. (2005). Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation. Version 2005, Temple, Texas.

Water exchange on a geological timescale - examples from two coastal sites in the Baltic Sea.

PubMed

Eriksson, Christin; Engqvist, Anders

2013-05-01

The water turnover of two coastal areas, Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp, has been modeled for 13 selected years between 6500 BC and 9000 AD by utilizing information about past, present, and future bathymetry. The Forsmark area can be described as an open-ended funnel, and is analyzed with a 3D-model (MIKE 3-FM); the Laxemar area is partitioned into clusters of sub-basins treated with a discrete coupled basin model (CouBa). In all simulations, the main variation factor is the land uplift. The 3D-model domain is successively modified. For the CouBa approach the successive basin configurations are objectively deduced based on the 3D domain modifications. The average age (AvA) of the resident water relative to the open coast is generally lower for the Forsmark area. A typical progression is that the AvA values increase until a sub-basin ceases to be connected to the coastal zone. This disconnection is often preceded by a lowered AvA.

Extension of continental lithosphere - A model for two scales of basin and range deformation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zuber, M. T.; Parmentier, E. M.; Fletcher, R. C.

1986-01-01

The development of a model for deformation in an extending continental lithosphere that is stratified in density and strength is described. The lithosphere model demonstrates that the necking instabilities at two wavelengths originate due to a strong upper crust, a mantle layer, and a weak lower crust. It is observed that the dominant wavelengths of necking are controlled by layer thickness and the strength of the layers control the amplitude of the instabilities. The model is applied to the Basin and Range Province of the western U.S. where deformations in ranges and tile domains are detected. The relation between the Bouguer gravity anomaly and the deformations is studied. The data reveal that the horizontal scale of short wavelength necking correlates with the spacings of individual basins and ranges, and the longer wavelength corresponds to the width of tilt domains. The control of the Basin and Range deformation by two scales of extensional instability is proposed.

Evolution of Pull-Apart Basins and Their Scale Independence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, Atilla; Nur, Amos

1982-02-01

Pull-apart basins or rhomb grabens and horsts along major strike-slip fault systems in the world are generally associated with horizontal slip along faults. A simple model suggests that the width of the rhombs is controlled by the initial fault geometry, whereas the length increases with increasing fault displacement. We have tested this model by analyzing the shapes of 70 well-defined rhomb-like pull-apart basins and pressure ridges, ranging from tens of meters to tens of kilometers in length, associated with several major strike-slip faults in the western United States, Israel, Turkey, Iran, Guatemala, Venezuela, and New Zealand. In conflict with the model, we find that the length to width ratio of these basins is a constant value of approximately 3; these basins become wider as they grow longer with increasing fault offset. Two possible mechanisms responsible for the increase in width are suggested: (1) coalescence of neighboring rhomb grabens as each graben increases its length and (2) formation of fault strands parallel to the existing ones when large displacements need to be accommodated. The processes of formation and growth of new fault strands promote interaction among the new faults and between the new and preexisting faults on a larger scale. Increased displacement causes the width of the fault zone to increase resulting in wider pull-apart basins.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Fournier, J.

The Congo basin, in Equatorial Africa, is an enormous topographic depression, roughly coinciding with the drainage system of the Congo (or Zaire) River and its tributaries. It covers nearly 2 million sq km, mostly in the Republic of Zaire, the Republic of Congo, and the Central African Republic. With only 2,900 km of seismic profiling and two exploration wells, it can be considered almost unexplored. No exploration work is in progress. Data derived from wells, seismic profiles, and some field reconnaissance surveys have been reviewed in initial articles by Lawrence et al. and Daly et al. Based on the availablemore » data, these authors have proposed a model of the basin, which is summarized. Based on the same data complemented by more-elaborate sedimentological interpretations, focusing on paleoenvironmental reconstruction, this author proposes a significantly different model concluding in the nonexistence of the Galamboge play, at least in the central part of the basin. He counters with the alternative of the probable existence of a variety of other plays located at different stratigraphic intervals and distributed in different sectors of the basin. While this alternative model certainly downgrades the Galamboge sandstones play, in return it considerably upgrades the global estimate of the petroleum potential of the Congo basin. Indeed, it shows that this basin displays most of the characteristics generally attached to major intracratonic petroleum provinces.« less

Spatial variability in water-balance model performance in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; McCabe, G.J.

2002-01-01

A monthly water-balance (WB) model was tested in 44 river basins from diverse physiographic and climatic regions across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The WB model includes the concepts of climatic water supply and climatic water demand, seasonality in climatic water supply and demand, and soil-moisture storage. Exhaustive search techniques were employed to determine the optimal set of precipitation and temperature stations, and the optimal set of WB model parameters to use for each basin. It was found that the WB model worked best for basins with: (1) a mean elevation less than 450 meters or greater than 2000 meters, and/or (2) monthly runoff that is greater than 5 millimeters (mm) more than 80 percent of the time. In a separate analysis, a multiple linear regression (MLR) was computed using the adjusted R-square values obtained by comparing measured and estimated monthly runoff of the original 44 river basins as the dependent variable, and combinations of various independent variables [streamflow gauge latitude, longitude, and elevation; basin area, the long-term mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation; temperature and runoff; and low-flow statistics (i.e., the percentage of months with monthly runoff that is less than 5 mm)]. Results from the MLR study showed that the reliability of a WB model for application in a specific region can be estimated from mean basin elevation and the percentage of months with gauged runoff less than 5 mm. The MLR equations were subsequently used to estimate adjusted R-square values for 1,646 gauging stations across the conterminous U.S. Results of this study indicate that WB models can be used reliably to estimate monthly runoff in the eastern U.S., mountainous areas of the western U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Applications of monthly WB models in the central U.S. can lead to uncertain estimates of runoff.

Imaging exhumed lower continental crust in the distal Jequitinhonha basin, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loureiro, A.; Schnürle, P.; Klingelhöfer, F.; Afilhado, A.; Pinheiro, J.; Evain, M.; Gallais, F.; Dias, N. A.; Rabineau, M.; Baltzer, A.; Benabdellouahed, M.; Soares, J.; Fuck, R.; Cupertino, J. A.; Viana, A.; Matias, L.; Moulin, M.; Aslanian, D.; Vinicius Aparecido Gomes de Lima, M.; Morvan, L.; Mazé, J. P.; Pierre, D.; Roudaut-Pitel, M.; Rio, I.; Alves, D.; Barros Junior, P.; Biari, Y.; Corela, C.; Crozon, J.; Duarte, J. L.; Ducatel, C.; Falcão, C.; Fernagu, P.; Le Piver, D.; Mokeddem, Z.; Pelleau, P.; Rigoti, C.; Roest, W.; Roudaut, M.; Salsa Team

2018-07-01

Twelve combined wide-angle refraction and coincident multi-channel seismic profiles were acquired in the Jequitinhonha-Camamu-Almada, Jacuípe, and Sergipe-Alagoas basins, NE Brazil, during the SALSA experiment in 2014. Profiles SL11 and SL12 image the Jequitinhonha basin, perpendicularly to the coast, with 15 and 11 four-channel ocean-bottom seismometers, respectively. Profile SL10 runs parallel to the coast, crossing profiles SL11 and SL12, imaging the proximal Jequitinhonha and Almada basins with 17 ocean-bottom seismometers. Forward modelling, combined with pre-stack depth migration to increase the horizontal resolution of the velocity models, indicates that sediment thickness varies between 3.3 km and 6.2 km in the distal basin. Crustal thickness at the western edge of the profiles is of around 20 km, with velocity gradients indicating a continental origin. It decreases to less than 5 km in the distal basin, with high seismic velocities and gradients, not compatible with normal oceanic crust nor exhumed upper mantle. Typical oceanic crust is never imaged along these about 200 km-long profiles and we propose that the transitional crust in the Jequitinhonha basin is a made of exhumed lower continental crust.

Hydraulic characteristics and nutrient transport and transformation beneath a rapid infiltration basin, Reedy Creek Improvement District, Orange County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sumner, D.M.; Bradner, L.A.

1996-01-01

The Reedy Creek Improvement District disposes of about 7.5 million gallons per day (1992) of reclaimed water through 85 1-acre rapid infiltration basins within a 1,000-acre area of sandy soils in Orange County, Florida. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted field experiments in 1992 at an individual basin to examine and better understand the hydraulic characteristics and nutrient transport and transformation of reclaimed water beneath a rapid infiltration basin. At the time, concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in reclaimed water were about 3 and 0.25 milligrams per liter, respectively. A two-dimensional, radial, unsaturated/saturated numerical flow model was applied to describe the flow system beneath a rapid infiltration basin under current and hypothetical basin loading scenarios and to estimate the hydraulic properties of the soil and sediment beneath a basin. The thicknesses of the unsaturated and saturated parts of the surficial aquifer system at the basin investigated were about 37 and 52 feet, respectively. The model successfully replicated the field-monitored infiltration rate (about 5.5 feet per day during the daily flooding periods of about 17 hours) and ground-water mounding response during basin operation. Horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity of the saturated part of the surficial aquifer system were estimated to be 150 and 45 feet per day, respectively. The field-saturated vertical hydraulic conductivity of the shallow soil, estimated to be about 5.1 feet per day, was considered to have been less than the full- saturation value because of the effects of air entrapment. Specific yield of the surficial aquifer was estimated to be 0.41. The upper 20 feet of the basin subsurface profile probably served as a system control on infiltration because of the relatively low field-saturated, vertical hydraulic conductivity of the sediments within this layer. The flow model indicates that, in the vicinity of the basin, flow in the deeper, saturated zone was relatively slow compared to the more vigorous flow in the shallow saturated zone. The large radial component of flow below the water table in the vicinity of the basin implies that reclaimed water moves preferentially in the shallow part of the saturated zone upon reaching the water table. Therefore, there may be some vertical stratification in the saturated zone, with recently infiltrated water overlying ambient water. The infiltration capacity at the basin would be unaffected by a small (less than 10 feet) increase in background water-table altitude, because the water table would remain below the system control on infiltration. However, water-table rises of 15 and 20 feet were estimated to reduce the infiltration capacity of the basin by 8 and 25 percent, respectively. Model simulations indicate that increasing ponded depth within the basin from 4 to 12 inches and from 4 to 24 inches would increase basin infiltration capacity by less than 6 and 11 percent, respectively. A loading strategy at the basin that relies on long, uninterrupted flooding was shown to offer the possibility of inducing a more anaerobic environment conducive to denitrification while maintaining reclaimed-water disposal capacity. Field measurements indicated that transient, elevated concentrations or "spikes" of nitrate (as high as 33 milligrams per liter as nitrogen) occurred at the leading edge of the infiltrating water and in the shallow saturated zone following a prolonged basin rest period. This phenomenon probably is the result of mineralization and nitrification of organic nitrogen retained with the subsurface during earlier basin loading events. The organic nitrogen was retained in the shallow soil (due to adsorption/straining) and the shallow saturated zone following a prolonged basin rest period. This phenomenon probably is the result of mineralization and nitrification of organic nitrogen retained within the subsurface during earlier basin loading event

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

PubMed Central

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-01-01

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation. PMID:25897996

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-04-21

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

Thermal maturity patterns of Cretaceous and Tertiary rocks, San Juan Basin, Colorado and New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Law, B.E.

1992-01-01

Horizontal and vertical thermal maturity patterns and time-temperature modeling indicate that the high levels of thermal maturity in the northern part of the basin are due to either: 1) convective heat transfer associated with a deeply buried heat source located directly below the northern part of the basin or 2) the circulation of relatively hot fluids into the basin from a heat source north of the basin located near the San Juan Mountains. Time-temperature and kinetic modeling of nonlinear Rm profiles indicates that present-day heat flow is insufficient to account for the measured levels of thermal maturity. Furthermore, in order to match nonlinear Rm profiles, it is necessary to assign artifically high thermal-conductivity values to some of the stratigraphic units. These unrealistically high thermal conductivities are interpreted as evidence of convective heat transfer. -from Author

The structure and evolution of ancient impact basins on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, P. H.; Schultz, R. A.; Rogers, J.

1982-01-01

It is pointed out that characteristic styles of degradation and modification of obvious Martian basins make it possible to recognize more subtle expressions. This approach is seen as providing not only additional basins to the existing inventory but also fundamental clues for initial impact basin structure and stratigraphy. It also reveals the long-lasting influence of basin formation on the crust of Mars in spite of extensive erosion and resurfacing. Consideration is given to five clear examples of modified impact basins, and regions around each that have undergone similar processes (fracturing, collapse, channeling) are delineated. These processes among the different basins are then compared, and similar zones of modification are correlated with concentric basin rings. Consideration is then given to the implications of these observations for current models of basin formation and to the role of impact basins in controlling regional tectonics. The results indicate that large multiring impact scars leave a major but sometimes subtle imprint on the geologic structure of stable crustal regions on Mars.

A mathematical model of a shallow and eutrophic lake (the Keszthely Basin, Lake Balaton) and simulation of restorative manipulations.

PubMed

Sagehashi, M; Sakoda, A; Suzuki, M

2001-05-01

Concern about the overall management of lakes has been growing, and a lake ecological model provides the guidelines necessary for such management. In this study, an ecological model describing the ecosystem of the Keszthely Basin, Lake Balaton, Hungary, one of the typical shallow and eutrophic lakes, was proposed. This model includes three types of zooplankton and two types of fish as well as two types of algae and nutrients. Parameters concerning the algae and fish were estimated based on observations in the basin between 1991 and 1995. The other parameters and the structure of the model were determined by our previous study. The parameters of the model were calibrated with the Monte Carlo technique, and its predictability was confirmed. The effects on the basin's ecosystem of three restorative manipulations, namely a biomanipulation, reduction of loading phosphorus, and dredging the sediment, were assessed by simulation studies using the proposed model. The simulation results indicated that a biomanipulation that removed 90% of the bream should suppress the growth of algae temporarily through bottom-up regulation; however, this effect seemed to not be perpetuated in this basin. The reduction of loading phosphorus seemed to be the most effective means to suppress algal growth, while dredging of sediment seemed to be the most desirable restoration method from the standpoint of the overall management of the lake, because it was expected to accelerate the growth of fish population as well as to suppress algal growth. Furthermore, the algal growth suppression mechanism of the dredging was discussed on the basis of the model calculations.

Thermal evolution of a hyperextended rift basin, Mauléon Basin, western Pyrenees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Nicole R.; Stockli, Daniel F.; Lavier, Luc L.; Hayman, Nicholas W.

2017-06-01

Onshore and offshore geological and geophysical observations and numerical modeling have greatly improved the conceptual understanding of magma-poor rifted margins. However, critical questions remain concerning the thermal evolution of the prerift to synrift phases of thinning ending with the formation of hyperextended crust and mantle exhumation. In the western Pyrenees, the Mauléon Basin preserves the structural and stratigraphic record of Cretaceous extension, exhumation, and sedimentation of the proximal-to-distal margin development. Pyrenean shortening uplifted basement and overlying sedimentary basins without pervasive shortening or reheating, making the Mauléon Basin an ideal locality to study the temporal and thermal evolution of magma-poor hyperextended rift systems through coupling bedrock and detrital zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronometric data from transects characterizing different structural rifting domains. These new data indicate that the basin was heated during early rifting to >180°C with geothermal gradients of 80-100°C/km. The proximal margin recorded rift-related exhumation/cooling at circa 98 Ma, whereas the distal margin remained >180°C until the onset of Paleocene Pyrenean shortening. Lithospheric-scale numerical modeling shows that high geothermal gradients, >80°C/km, and synrift sediments >180°C, can be reached early in rift evolution via heat advection by lithospheric depth-dependent thinning and blanketing caused by the lower thermal conductivity of synrift sediments. Mauléon Basin thermochronometric data and numerical modeling illustrate that reheating of basement and synrift strata might play an important role and should be considered in the future development of conceptual and numerical models for hyperextended magma-poor continental rifted margins.

Streamflow Simulations and Percolation Estimates Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Selected Basins in North-Central Nebraska, 1940-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strauch, Kellan R.; Linard, Joshua I.

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Elkhorn, Lower Elkhorn, Upper Loup, Lower Loup, Middle Niobrara, Lower Niobrara, Lewis and Clark, and Lower Platte North Natural Resources Districts, used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate streamflow and estimate percolation in north-central Nebraska to aid development of long-term strategies for management of hydrologically connected ground and surface water. Although groundwater models adequately simulate subsurface hydrologic processes, they often are not designed to simulate the hydrologically complex processes occurring at or near the land surface. The use of watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, which are designed specifically to simulate surface and near-subsurface processes, can provide helpful insight into the effects of surface-water hydrology on the groundwater system. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated for five stream basins in the Elkhorn-Loup Groundwater Model study area in north-central Nebraska to obtain spatially variable estimates of percolation. Six watershed models were calibrated to recorded streamflow in each subbasin by modifying the adjustment parameters. The calibrated parameter sets were then used to simulate a validation period; the validation period was half of the total streamflow period of record with a minimum requirement of 10 years. If the statistical and water-balance results for the validation period were similar to those for the calibration period, a model was considered satisfactory. Statistical measures of each watershed model's performance were variable. These objective measures included the Nash-Sutcliffe measure of efficiency, the ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of the measured data, and an estimate of bias. The model met performance criteria for the bias statistic, but failed to meet statistical adequacy criteria for the other two performance measures when evaluated at a monthly time step. A primary cause of the poor model validation results was the inability of the model to reproduce the sustained base flow and streamflow response to precipitation that was observed in the Sand Hills region. The watershed models also were evaluated based on how well they conformed to the annual mass balance (precipitation equals the sum of evapotranspiration, streamflow/runoff, and deep percolation). The model was able to adequately simulate annual values of evapotranspiration, runoff, and precipitation in comparison to reported values, which indicates the model may provide reasonable estimates of annual percolation. Mean annual percolation estimated by the model as basin averages varied within the study area from a maximum of 12.9 inches in the Loup River Basin to a minimum of 1.5 inches in the Shell Creek Basin. Percolation also varied within the studied basins; basin headwaters tended to have greater percolation rates than downstream areas. This variance in percolation rates was mainly was because of the predominance of sandy, highly permeable soils in the upstream areas of the modeled basins.

User's guide to SSARRMENU

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, M.C.; Le, Thanh

2001-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Pierce County Department of Public Works, Washington, has developed an operational tool called the Puyallup Flood-Alert System to alert users of impending floods in the Puyallup River Basin. The system acquires and incorporates meteorological and hydrological data into the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) hydrologic flow-routing model to simulate floods in the Puyallup River Basin. SSARRMENU is the user-interactive graphical interface between the user, the input and output data, and the SSARR model. In a companion cooperative project with Pierce County, the SSARR model for the Puyallup River Basin was calibrated and validated. The calibrated model is accessed through SSARRMENU, which has been specifically programed for the Puyallup River and the needs of Pierce County. SSARRMENU automates the retrieval of data from ADAPS (Automated DAta Processing System, the U.S. Geological Survey?s real-time hydrologic database), formats the data for use with SSARR, initiates SSARR model runs, displays alerts for impending floods, and provides utilities to display the simulated and observed data. An on-screen map of the basin and a series of menu items provide the user wi

Assessing the groundwater salinization in closed hydrologic basins due to overdraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Z.; Pauloo, R.; Fogg, G. E.

2016-12-01

Population growth and the expansion of agriculture, coupled with climate uncertainties, have accelerated groundwater pumping and overdraft in alluvial aquifers worldwide. In many agricultural basins, the low rate of replenishment is far exceeded by the rate of groundwater pumping in overdrafted aquifers, which results in the substantial water table declines and in effect contributes to the formation of a "closed" basin. In fact, even modest amounts of groundwater system drawdown that do not produce what is construed as overdraft, can result in most of the groundwater discharge occurring as evapotranspiration via irrigation practices, converting the basin to a closed groundwater basin. Moreover, in past decades, extreme weather conditions (i.e., severe drought in California for the past five years) have resulted in substantially reduced surface water storage. This increases demand for groundwater to supplement low surface water supplies, and consequently, drives groundwater overdraft, and hence, groundwater salinization. In these newly closed basins, just as in other naturally closed basins such as Death Valley and the Great Salt Lake, groundwater salinity must increase not only due to evaporation, but also due to rock water interactions in the groundwater system, and lack of a natural outlet for the groundwater. In this study, the water balance and salt balance in closed basins of the Central Valley, California are computed. Groundwater degradation under the current overdraft conditions is further investigated using simple models that are developed by upscaling more complex and heterogeneous transport models. The focus of this study is to determine the applicability of these simple models to represent regional transport without explicitly including the large-scale heterogeneity inherent in the more complex models. Groundwater salinization processes, including salt accumulation caused by evapotranspiration of applied irrigation water and rock-groundwater interactions are simulated, and the time scales under which groundwater salinity may pose a threat to societies is estimated. Lastly, and most importantly, management strategies to mitigate groundwater salinization are examined.

Flexural controls on late Neogene basin evolution in southern McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aitken, Alan R. A.; Wilson, Gary S.; Jordan, Thomas; Tinto, Kirsty; Blakemore, Hamish

2012-01-01

The basins of southern McMurdo Sound have evolved under the influence of lithospheric flexure induced by the loads of the Erebus Volcanic Province. To characterise these basins, it is important to investigate the lithosphere's flexural properties, and estimate their influence on basin architecture and evolution. Seismic and gravity data are used to constrain 3D forward modelling of the progressive development of accommodation space within the flexural basins. Elastic plate flexure was calculated for a range of effective elastic thicknesses (T e) from 0.5 to 25 km using a spectral method. Models with low, but nonzero, T e values (2 km < T e < 5 km) produce the best fit to the gravity data, although uncertainty is high due to inaccuracies in the Digital Elevation Model. The slopes of flexural horizons revealed in seismic reflection lines are consistent with this, indicating a T e of 2 km to 5 km, although the depths to these horizons are not consistent, perhaps due to a northwards slope, or step, in the pre-flexural surface. These results indicate that the lithospheric strength of southern McMurdo Sound is significantly less than estimates of the regional average (T e ~ 20 km). This low strength may reflect the weakening effects of the Terror Rift, and perhaps also the Discovery Accommodation Zone, a region of major transverse faulting. A low T e model (T e = 3) for southern McMurdo Sound predicts the development of two discrete flexural depressions, each 2-2.5 km deep. The predicted stratigraphy of the northern basin reflects flexure due to Ross Island, predominantly erupted since ca. 1.8 Ma. The predicted stratigraphy of the southern basin reflects more gradual flexure from ca. 10 Ma to ca. 2 Ma, due to the more dispersed volcanoes of the Discovery subprovince. Collectively, these two basins have the potential to preserve a remarkable stratigraphic record of Antarctic climate change through the late Neogene.

Reprint of: Flexural controls on late Neogene basin evolution in southern McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aitken, Alan R. A.; Wilson, Gary S.; Jordan, Tom; Tinto, Kirsty; Blakemore, Hamish

2012-10-01

The basins of southern McMurdo Sound have evolved under the influence of lithospheric flexure induced by the loads of the Erebus Volcanic Province. To characterise these basins, it is important to investigate the lithosphere's flexural properties, and estimate their influence on basin architecture and evolution. Seismic and gravity data are used to constrain 3D forward modelling of the progressive development of accommodation space within the flexural basins. Elastic plate flexure was calculated for a range of effective elastic thicknesses (Te) from 0.5 to 25 km using a spectral method. Models with low, but nonzero, Te values (2 km < Te < 5 km) produce the best fit to the gravity data, although uncertainty is high due to inaccuracies in the Digital Elevation Model. The slopes of flexural horizons revealed in seismic reflection lines are consistent with this, indicating a Te of 2 km to 5 km, although the depths to these horizons are not consistent, perhaps due to a northwards slope, or step, in the pre-flexural surface. These results indicate that the lithospheric strength of southern McMurdo Sound is significantly less than estimates of the regional average (Te ~ 20 km). This low strength may reflect the weakening effects of the Terror Rift, and perhaps also the Discovery Accommodation Zone, a region of major transverse faulting. A low Te model (Te = 3) for southern McMurdo Sound predicts the development of two discrete flexural depressions, each 2-2.5 km deep. The predicted stratigraphy of the northern basin reflects flexure due to Ross Island, predominantly erupted since ca. 1.8 Ma. The predicted stratigraphy of the southern basin reflects more gradual flexure from ca. 10 Ma to ca. 2 Ma, due to the more dispersed volcanoes of the Discovery subprovince. Collectively, these two basins have the potential to preserve a remarkable stratigraphic record of Antarctic climate change through the late Neogene.

Crustal Structure and Subsidence of the Williston Basin: Evidence from Receiver Function Stacking and Gravity Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, J.; Liu, K. H.; Yu, Y.; Mickus, K. L.; Gao, S. S.

2017-12-01

The Williston Basin of the northcentral United States and southern Canada is a typical intracratonic sag basin, with nearly continuous subsidence from the Cambrian to the Jurassic. A number of contrasting models on the subsidence mechanism of this approximately circular basin have been proposed. While in principle 3D variations of crustal thickness, layering, and Poisson's ratio can provide essential constraints on the models, thick layers of Phanerozoic sediment with up to 4.5 km thickness prevented reliable determinations of those crustal properties using active or passive source seismic techniques. Specifically, the strong reverberations of teleseismic P-to-S converted waves (a.k.a. receiver functions or RFs) from the Moho and intracrustal interfaces in the loose sedimentary layer can severely contaminate the RFs. Here we use RFs recorded by about 200 USArray and other stations in the Williston Basin and adjacent areas to obtain spatial distributions of the crustal properties. We have found that virtually all of the RFs recorded by stations in the Basin contain strong reverberations, which are effectively removed using a recently developed deconvolution-based filter (Yu et al., 2015, DOI: 10.1002/2014JB011610). A "double Moho" structure is clearly imaged beneath the Basin. The top interface has a depth of about 40 km beneath the Basin, and shallows gradually toward the east from the depocenter. It joins with the Moho beneath the western margin of the Superior Craton, where the crust is about 30 km thick. The bottom interface has a depth of 55 km beneath the Wyoming Craton, and deepens to about 70 km beneath the depocenter. Based on preliminary results of H-k stacking and gravity modeling, we interpret the layer between the two interfaces as a high density, probably eclogized layer. Continuous eclogitization from the Cambrian to the Jurassic resulted in the previously observed rates of subsidence being nearly linear rather than exponential.

Backward modelling of the subsidence evolution of the Colorado Basin, offshore Argentina and its relation to the evolution of the conjugate Orange Basin, offshore SW Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dressel, Ingo; Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena; Cacace, Mauro

2017-10-01

In this study we focus on reconstructing the post-rift subsidence evolution of the Colorado Basin, offshore Argentina. We make use of detailed structural information about its present-day configuration of the sedimentary infill and the crystalline crust. This information is used as input in a backward modelling approach which relies on the assumption of local isostasy to reconstruct the amount of subsidence as induced by the sedimentary load through different time stages. We also attempt a quantification of the thermal effects on the subsidence as induced by the rifting, here included by following the uniform stretching model of lithosphere thinning and exponentially cooling through time. Based on the available information about the present-day geological state of the system, our modelling results indicate a rather continuous post-rift subsidence for the Colorado Basin, and give no significant evidence of any noticeable uplift phase. In a second stage, we compare the post-rift evolution of the Colorado Basin with the subsidence evolution as constrained for its conjugate SW African passive margin, the Orange Basin. Despite these two basins formed almost coevally and therefore in a similar large scale geodynamic context, their post-rift subsidence histories differ. Based on this result, we discuss causative tectonic processes likely to provide an explanation to the observed differences. We therefore conclude that it is most probable that additional tectonic components, other than the ridge-push from the spreading of the South Atlantic Ocean, are required to explain the observed differences in the subsidence of the two basins along the conjugate passive margins. Such additional tectonic components might be related to a dynamic mantle component in the form of either plume activity (Africa) or a subducting slab and the presence of an ongoing compressional stress system as revealed for different areas in South America.

Slip Potential of Faults in the Fort Worth Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennings, P.; Osmond, J.; Lund Snee, J. E.; Zoback, M. D.

2017-12-01

Similar to other areas of the southcentral United States, the Fort Worth Basin of NE Texas has experienced an increase in the rate of seismicity which has been attributed to injection of waste water in deep saline aquifers. To assess the hazard of induced seismicity in the basin we have integrated new data on location and character of previously known and unknown faults, stress state, and pore pressure to produce an assessment of fault slip potential which can be used to investigate prior and ongoing earthquake sequences and for development of mitigation strategies. We have assembled data on faults in the basin from published sources, 2D and 3D seismic data, and interpretations provided from petroleum operators to yield a 3D fault model with 292 faults ranging in strike-length from 116 to 0.4 km. The faults have mostly normal geometries, all cut the disposal intervals, and most are presumed to cut into the underlying crystalline and metamorphic basement. Analysis of outcrops along the SW flank of the basin assist with geometric characterization of the fault systems. The interpretation of stress state comes from integration of wellbore image and sonic data, reservoir stimulation data, and earthquake focal mechanisms. The orientation of SHmax is generally uniform across the basin but stress style changes from being more strike-slip in the NE part of the basin to normal faulting in the SW part. Estimates of pore pressure come from a basin-scale hydrogeologic model as history-matched to injection test data. With these deterministic inputs and appropriate ranges of uncertainty we assess the conditional probability that faults in our 3D model might slip via Mohr-Coulomb reactivation in response to increases in injected-related pore pressure. A key component of the analysis is constraining the uncertainties associated with each of the principal parameters. Many of the faults in the model are interpreted to be critically-stressed within reasonable ranges of uncertainty.

Geologic Storage at the Basin Scale: Region-Based Basin Modeling, Powder River Basin (PRB), NE Wyoming and SE Montana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melick, J. J.; Gardner, M. H.

2008-12-01

Carbon capture and storage from the over 2000 power plants is estimated at 3-5 GT/yr, which requires large- scale geologic storage of greenhouse gasses in sedimentary basins. Unfortunately, determination of basin scale storage capacity is currently based on oversimplified geologic models that are difficult to validate. Simplification involves reducing the number of geologic parameters incorporated into the model, modeling with large grid cells, and treatment of subsurface reservoirs as homogeneous media. The latter problem reflects the focus of current models on fluid and/or fluid-rock interactions rather than fluid movement and migration pathways. For example, homogeneous models over emphasize fluid behavior, like the buoyancy of super-critical CO2, and hence overestimate leakage rates. Fluid mixing and fluid-rock interactions cannot be assessed with models that only investigate these reactions at a human time scale. Preliminary and conservative estimates of the total pore volume for the PRB suggest 200 GT of supercritical CO2 can be stored in this typical onshore sedimentary basin. The connected pore volume (CPV) however is not included in this estimate. Geological characterization of the CPV relates subsurface storage units to the most prolific reservoir classes (RCs). The CPV, number of well penetrations, supercritical storage area, and potential leakage pathways characterize each RC. Within each RC, a hierarchy of stratigraphic cycles is populated with stationary sedimentation regions that control rock property distributions by correlating environment of deposition (EOD) to CPV. The degree to which CPV varies between RCs depends on the geology and attendant heterogeneity retained in the fluid flow model. Region-based modeling of the PRB incorporates 28000 wells correlated across a 70,000 Km2 area, 2 km thick on average. Within this basin, five of the most productive RCs were identified from production history and placed in a fourfold stratigraphic framework (second- through fourth-order cycles). Within the small- scale 4th-order sequences (30-150-m thick, 16 total), sedimentation regions, each corresponding to an EOD, are defined by thickness, lithology and core-calibrated well-log patterns. This talk illustrates the workflow by focusing on one of the 16 layers in the basin-scale model. Isopach maps from this sample layer conform to depositional patterns confirmed through definition of five core-calibrated, well-log defined sedimentation regions. Lithology distributions also conform to thickness trends in nearshore deltas, but not in offshore regions, where sand-rich and sheet-like, but thin-bedded sandstones are flanked by mud-rich intervals of equivalent thickness. These maps represent sedimentation patterns confined by basal erosional sequence boundary and basin-wide bentonite, yet containing up to seven high-frequency sequence boundaries. To illustrate over simplification problems in this same layer, a 14000 km2 sample area is 600 km3 and using standard averaging methods, which are considered to be geologic in origin, the CPV is 16 km3. However, averaging increases connectivity with high CPV more uniformly distributed; significantly, the key mud belt region separating nearshore from offshore sandstones is not represented. Region-based modeling of this layer yields 13 km3 (110 Bbl). Furthermore, significant vertical leakage may exist from the 20000 well penetrations and faults and fractures along the western basin margin. This example illustrates the importance of accurately characterizing heterogeneity and distributing CPV using sedimentation regions.

The use of coupled atmospheric and hydrological models for water-resources management in headwater basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leavesley, G.; Hay, L.

1998-01-01

Coupled atmospheric and hydrological models provide an opportunity for the improved management of water resources in headwater basins. Issues currently limiting full implementation of coupled-model methodologies include (a) the degree of uncertainty in the accuracy of precipitation and other meteorological variables simulated by atmospheric models, and (b) the problem of discordant scales between atmospheric and bydrological models. Alternative methodologies being developed to address these issues are reviewed.

Basins of coexistence and extinction in spatially extended ecosystems of cyclically competing species.

PubMed

Ni, Xuan; Yang, Rui; Wang, Wen-Xu; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Grebogi, Celso

2010-12-01

Microscopic models based on evolutionary games on spatially extended scales have recently been developed to address the fundamental issue of species coexistence. In this pursuit almost all existing works focus on the relevant dynamical behaviors originated from a single but physically reasonable initial condition. To gain comprehensive and global insights into the dynamics of coexistence, here we explore the basins of coexistence and extinction and investigate how they evolve as a basic parameter of the system is varied. Our model is cyclic competitions among three species as described by the classical rock-paper-scissors game, and we consider both discrete lattice and continuous space, incorporating species mobility and intraspecific competitions. Our results reveal that, for all cases considered, a basin of coexistence always emerges and persists in a substantial part of the parameter space, indicating that coexistence is a robust phenomenon. Factors such as intraspecific competition can, in fact, promote coexistence by facilitating the emergence of the coexistence basin. In addition, we find that the extinction basins can exhibit quite complex structures in terms of the convergence time toward the final state for different initial conditions. We have also developed models based on partial differential equations, which yield basin structures that are in good agreement with those from microscopic stochastic simulations. To understand the origin and emergence of the observed complicated basin structures is challenging at the present due to the extremely high dimensional nature of the underlying dynamical system. © 2010 American Institute of Physics.

Insights upon upper crustal arhitecture of a subduction zone and its surroundings - Vrancea Zone and Focsani Basin - substantiated by geophysical studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocin, A.; Stephenson, R.; Mocanu, V.

2007-12-01

The DACIA PLAN (Danube and Carpathian Integrated Action on Processes in the Lithosphere and Neotectonics) deep seismic reflection survey was performed in August-September 2001, with the proposed objective of obtaining new information on the deep structure of the external Carpathians nappes and the architecture of Tertiary/Quaternary basin developed within and adjacent to the Vrancea zone, including the rapidly subsiding Focsani Basin. The DACIA-PLAN profile is about 140 km long, having a roughly NW-SE direction, from near the southeast Transylvanian Basin, across the mountainous southeastern Carpathians and their foreland to near the Danube River. A high resolution 2.5D velocity model of the upper crust along the seismic profile has been determined from a tomographic inversion and a 2D ray tracing forward modelling of the DACIA PLAN first arrival data. Peculiar shallow high velocities indicate that pre-Tertiary basement in the Vrancea Zone (characterised by velocities greater than 5.6 km/s) is involved in Carpathian thrusting while rapid alternance, vertically or horizontally, of velocity together with narrowingly contemporary crustal events suggests uplifting. Further to the east, at the foreland basin-thrust belt transition zone (well defined within velocity values), the velocity model suggests a nose of the Miocene Subcarpathians nappe being underlain by Focsani Basin units. A Miocene and younger Focsani Basin sedimentary succession of ~10 km thickness is ascertained by a gradual increase of velocities and strongly defined velocity boundaries.

Oppositely directed pairs of propagating rifts in back-arc basins: Double saloon door seafloor spreading during subduction rollback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, A. K.

2006-06-01

When a continent breaks up into two plates, which then separate from each other about a rotation pole, it can be shown that if initial movement is taken up by lithospheric extension, asthenospheric breakthrough and oceanic accretion propagate toward the pole of rotation. Such a propagating rift model is then applied to an embryonic centrally located rift which evolves into two rifts propagating in opposite directions. The resultant rhombic shape of the modeled basin, initially underlain entirely by thinned continental crust, is very similar to the Oligocene to Burdigalian back-arc evolution of the Valencia Trough and the Liguro-Provencal Basin in the western Mediterranean. Existing well and seismic stratigraphic data confirm that a rift did initiate in the Gulf of Lion and propagated southwest into the Valencia Trough. Similarly, seismic refraction, gravity, and heat flow data demonstrate that maximum extension within the Valencia Trough/Liguro-Provencal Basin occurred in an axial position close to the North Balearic Fracture Zone. The same model of oppositely propagating rifts, when applied to the Burdigalian/Langhian episode of back-arc oceanic accretion within the Liguro-Provencal and Algerian basins, predicts a number of features which are borne out by existing geological and geophysical, particularly magnetic data. These include the orientation of subparallel magnetic anomalies, presumed to be seafloor spreading isochrons, in both basins; concave-to-the-west fracture zones southwest of the North Balearic Fracture Zone, and concave-to-the-east fracture zones to its northeast; a spherical triangular area of NW oriented seafloor spreading isochrons southwest of Sardinia; the greater NW extension of the central (youngest?) magnetic anomaly within this triangular area, in agreement with the model-predicted northwestward propagation of a rift in this zone; successively more central (younger) magnetic anomalies abutting thinned continental crust nearer to the pole of rotation in the Liguro-Provencal Basin. The latter feature demonstrates that a rift also propagated northeast in the Liguro-Provencal Basin, at least in its oceanic accretion phase of development. An adaptation of an existing model for subduction slab detachment occurring along the North African margin in the late Burdigalian/Langhian, proposes propagation in opposite directions of the slab tear. The resultant rhombic slab detachment is closely associated in space and time with the rhombic form of the Algerian/Liguro-Provencal basins, suggesting a cause and effect relationship.

The effects of drainage basin geomorphometry on minimum low flow discharge: the study of small watershed in Kelang River Valley in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Yunus, Ahmad Jailani Muhamed; Nakagoshi, Nobukazu; Salleh, Khairulmaini Osman

2003-03-01

This study investigate the relationships between geomorphometric properties and the minimum low flow discharge of undisturbed drainage basins in the Taman Bukit Cahaya Seri Alam Forest Reserve, Peninsular Malaysia. The drainage basins selected were third-order basins so as to facilitate a common base for sampling and performing an unbiased statistical analyses. Three levels of relationships were observed in the study. Significant relationships existed between the geomorphometric properties as shown by the correlation network analysis; secondly, individual geomorphometric properties were observed to influence minimum flow discharge; and finally, the multiple regression model set up showed that minimum flow discharge (Q min) was dependent of basin area (AU), stream length (LS), maximum relief (Hmax), average relief (HAV) and stream frequency (SF). These findings further enforced other studies of this nature that drainage basins were dynamic and functional entities whose operations were governed by complex interrelationships occurring within the basins. Changes to any of the geomorphometric properties would influence their role as basin regulators thus influencing a change in basin response. In the case of the basin's minimum low flow, a change in any of the properties considered in the regression model influenced the "time to peak" of flow. A shorter time period would mean higher discharge, which is generally considered the prerequisite to flooding. This research also conclude that the role of geomorphometric properties to control the water supply within the stream through out the year even though during the drought and less precipitations months. Drainage basins are sensitive entities and any deteriorations involve will generate reciprocals and response to the water supply as well as the habitat within the areas.

Potential for a significant deep basin geothermal system in Tintic Valley, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardwick, C.; Kirby, S.

2014-12-01

The combination of regionally high heat flow, deep basins, and permeable reservoir rocks in the eastern Great Basin may yield substantial new geothermal resources. We explore a deep sedimentary basin geothermal prospect beneath Tintic Valley in central Utah using new 2D and 3D models coupled with existing estimates of heat flow, geothermometry, and shallow hydrologic data. Tintic Valley is a sediment-filled basin bounded to the east and west by bedrock mountain ranges where heat-flow values vary from 85 to over 240 mW/m2. Based on modeling of new and existing gravity data, a prominent 30 mGal low indicates basin fill thickness may exceed 2 km. The insulating effect of relatively low thermal conductivity basin fill in Tintic Valley, combined with typical Great Basin heat flow, predict temperatures greater than 150 °C at 3 km depth. The potential reservoir beneath the basin fill is comprised of Paleozoic carbonate and clastic rocks. The hydrology of the Tintic Valley is characterized by a shallow, cool groundwater system that recharges along the upper reaches of the basin and discharges along the valley axis and to a series of wells. The east mountain block is warm and dry, with groundwater levels just above the basin floor and temperatures >50 °C at depth. The west mountain block contains a shallow, cool meteoric groundwater system. Fluid temperatures over 50 °C are sufficient for direct-use applications, such as greenhouses and aquaculture, while temperatures exceeding 140°C are suitable for binary geothermal power plants. The geologic setting and regionally high heat flow in Tintic Valley suggest a geothermal resource capable of supporting direct-use geothermal applications and binary power production could be present.

Basin deconstruction-construction: Seeking thermal-tectonic consistency through the integration of geochemical thermal indicators and seismic fault mechanical stratigraphy ​- Example from Faras Field, North Western Desert, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pigott, John D.; Abouelresh, Mohamed O.

2016-02-01

To construct a model of a sedimentary basin's thermal tectonic history is first to deconstruct it: taking apart its geological elements, searching for its initial conditions, and then to reassemble the elements in the temporal order that the basin is assumed to have evolved. Two inherent difficulties implicit to the analysis are that most organic thermal indicators are cumulative, irreversible and a function of both temperature and time and the non-uniqueness of crustal strain histories which complicates tectonic interpretations. If the initial conditions (e.g. starting maturity of the reactants and initial crustal temperature) can be specified and the boundary conditions incrementally designated from changes in the lithospheric heat engine owing to stratigraphic structural constraints, then the number of pathways for the temporal evolution of a basin is greatly reduced. For this investigation, model input uncertainties are reduced through seeking a solution that iteratively integrates the geologically constrained tectonic subsidence, geochemically constrained thermal indicators, and geophysically constrained fault mechanical stratigraphy. The Faras oilfield in the Abu Gharadig Basin, North Western Desert, Egypt, provides an investigative example of such a basin's deconstructive procedure. Multiple episodes of crustal extension and shortening are apparent in the tectonic subsidence analyses which are constrained from the fault mechanical stratigraphy interpreted from reflection seismic profiles. The model was iterated with different thermal boundary conditions until outputs best fit the geochemical observations. In so doing, the thermal iterations demonstrate that general relationship that basin heat flow increases decrease vertical model maturity gradients, increases in surface temperatures shift vertical maturity gradients linearly to higher values, increases in sediment conductivities lower vertical maturities with depth, and the addition of ;ghost; layers (those layers removed) prior to the erosional event increase maturities beneath, and conversely. These integrated constraints upon the basin evolution model indicate that the principal source rocks, Khatatba and the lowest part of the Alam El Bueib formations, entered the oil window at approximately 95 Ma and the gas window at approximately 25 Ma. The upper part of the Alam El Bueib Formation is within the oil window at the present day. Establishing initial and boundary value conditions for a basin's thermal evolution when geovalidated by the integration of seismic fault mechanical stratigraphy, tectonic subsidence analysis, and organic geochemical maturity indicators provides a powerful tool for optimizing petroleum exploration in both mature and frontier basins.

Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation and Hydropower Potential: A Case of Upper Blue Nile Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdella, E. J.; Gosain, A. K.; Khosa, R.

2017-12-01

Due to the growing pressure in water resource and climate change there is great uncertainty in the availability of water for existing as well as proposed irrigation and hydropower projects in the Upper Blue Nile basin (longitude 34oE and 39oE and latitude 7oN and 12oN). This study quantitatively assessed the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the basin which intern affect water availability for different use including hydropower and irrigation. Ensemble of four bias corrected regional climate models (RCM) of CORDEX Africa domain and two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to determine climate projections for future (2021-2050) period. The outputs from the climate models used to drive the calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to simulate future runoff. The simulated discharge were used as input to a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) water allocation model to determine the implication in hydropower and irrigation potential of the basin. The WEAP model was setup to simulate three scenarios which includes Current, Medium-term (by 2025) and Long-term (by 2050) Development scenario. The projected mean annual temperature of the basin are warmer than the baseline (1982 - 2005) average in the range of 1 to 1.4oC. Projected mean annual precipitation varies across the basin in the range of - 3% to 7%, much of the expected increase is in the highland region of the basin. The water use simulation indicate that the current annual average irrigation water demand in the basin is 1.29Bm3y-1 with 100% coverage. By 2025 and 2050, with the development of new schemes and changing climate, water demand for irrigation is estimated to increase by 2.5 Bm3y-1 and 3.4 Bm3y-1 with 99 % and 96% coverage respectively. Simulation for domestic water demand coverage for all scenarios shows that there will be 100% coverage for the two major cities in the basin. The hydropower generation simulation indicate that 98% of hydroelectricity potential could be produced if all planed dams are constructed. The results in this study demonstrate the general idea of future water availability for different purpose in the basin, but uncertainties still exist in the projected future climate and simulated runoff. Optimal operation of existing and proposed reservoirs is also crucial in the context of climate change.

The Valencia trough and the origin of the western Mediterranean basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vegas, R.

1992-03-01

Evolutionary models for the Valencia trough must be necessarily related to the Neogene-Present geodynamics of the western Mediterranean basins. All these basins occupy new space created in the wake of the westward translation of the Alboran block and the counter-clockwise rotation of the Corso-Sardinian block. This escape-tectonics, microplate dispersal, model can account for the co-existence and progressive migration of compressional and extensional strain fields within the Africa-Europe broad zone of convergence. In this escape-tectonics model, the Valencia trough has resulted in a complex evolution which includes: (1) latest Oligocene-Early Miocene rifting along the Catalan-Valencian margin due to the opening of the Gulf of Lions; (2) almost simultaneous, Early Miocene, transpressive thrusting in the Balearic margin related to the initiation of displacement of the Alboran block; and (3) Late Miocene generalized extension as a consequence of the opening of the South Balearic basin.

a Matlab Toolbox for Basin Scale Fluid Flow Modeling Applied to Hydrology and Geothermal Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcanie, M.; Lupi, M.; Carrier, A.

2017-12-01

Recent boosts in the development of geothermal energy were fostered by the latest oil crises and by the need of reducing CO2 emissions generated by the combustion of fossil fuels. Various numerical codes (e.g. FEHM, CSMP++, HYDROTHERM, TOUGH) have thus been implemented for the simulation and quantification of fluid flow in the upper crust. One possible limitation of such codes is the limited accessibility and the complex structure of the simulators. For this reason, we began to develop a Hydrothermal Fluid Flow Matlab library as part of MRST (Matlab Reservoir Simulation Toolbox). MRST is designed for the simulation of oil and gas problems including carbon capture storage. However, a geothermal module is still missing. We selected the Geneva Basin as a natural laboratory because of the large amount of data available in the region. The Geneva Basin has been intensely investigated in the past with exploration wells, active seismic and gravity surveys. In addition, the energy strategy of Switzerland promotes the development of geothermal energy that lead to recent geophysical prospections. Previous and ongoing projects have shown the geothermal potential of the Geneva Basin but a consistent fluid flow model assessing the deep circulation in the region is yet to be defined. The first step of the study was to create the basin-scale static model. We integrated available active seismic, gravity inversions and borehole data to describe the principal geologic and tectonic features of the Geneva Basin. Petrophysical parameters were obtained from available and widespread well logs. This required adapting MRST to standard text format file imports and outline a new methodology for quick static model creation in an open source environment. We implemented several basin-scale fluid flow models to test the effects of petrophysical properties on the circulation dynamics of deep fluids in the Geneva Basin. Preliminary results allow the identification of preferential fluid flow pathways, which are critical information to define geothermal exploitation locations. The next step will be the implementation of the equation of state for pure water, CO2 - H2O and H2O - CH4 fluid mixtures.

Modeling of meteorology, tracer transport and chemistry for the Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Studies 2012 and 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadov, R.; McKeen, S. A.; Angevine, W. M.; Frost, G. J.; Roberts, J. M.; De Gouw, J. A.; Warneke, C.; Peischl, J.; Brown, S. S.; Edwards, P. M.; Wild, R. J.; Pichugina, Y. L.; Banta, R. M.; Brewer, A.; Senff, C. J.; Langford, A. O.; Petron, G.; Karion, A.; Sweeney, C.; Schnell, R. C.; Johnson, B.; Zamora, R. J.; Helmig, D.; Park, J.; Evans, J.; Stephens, C. R.; Olson, J. B.; Trainer, M.

2013-12-01

The Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Studies (UBWOS) field campaigns took place during winter of 2012 and 2013 in the Uintah Basin, Utah. The studies were aimed at characterizing meteorology, emissions of atmospheric constituents and air chemistry in a region abundant with oil and gas production, with associated emissions of various volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NOx. High ozone pollution events were observed throughout the Uintah Basin during the winter of 2013, but not during the winter of 2012. A clear understanding of the processes leading to high ozone events is still lacking. We present here high spatiotemporal resolution simulations of meteorology, tracer transport and gas chemistry over the basin during January-February, 2012 and 2013 using the WRF/Chem regional photochemical model. Correctly characterizing the meteorology poses unique challenges due to complex terrain, cold-pool conditions, and shallow inversion layers observed during the winter of 2013. We discuss the approach taken to adequately simulate the meteorology over the basin and present evaluations of the modeled meteorology using surface, lidar and tethersonde measurements. Initial simulations use a passive tracer within the model as a surrogate for CH4 released from oil and gas wells. These tracer transport simulations show that concentrations of inert, emitted species near the surface in 2013 were 4-8 times higher than 2012 due to much shallower boundary layers and reduced winds in 2013. This is supported by in-situ measurements of CH4 made at the Horse Pool surface station during the field campaigns. Full photochemical simulations are forced by VOC and NOx emissions that are determined in a top-down approach, using observed emission ratios of VOC and NOx relative to CH4, along with available information of active wells, compressors, and processing plants. We focus on differences in meteorology, temperature, and radiation between the two winters in determining ozone concentrations in the basin. The model is then used diagnostically to assess first-order sensitivities of basin-wide ozone to NOx or VOC emissions, and how they depend on the environmental differences between the winters of 2012 and 2013.

Thermodynamic, geophysical and rheological modeling of the lithosphere underneath the North Atlantic Porcupine Basin (Ireland).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botter, C. D.; Prada, M.; Fullea, J.

2017-12-01

The Porcupine is a North-South oriented basin located southwest of Ireland, along the North Atlantic continental margin, formed by several rifting episodes during Late Carboniferous to Early Cretaceous. The sedimentary cover is underlined by a very thin continental crust in the center of the basin (<5 km) that has been generally associated with hyperextension and mantle serpentinization. From North to South lithospheric stretching factors increase drastically from 2 in the North to >10 in the South. In spite of the abundant literature, most of the oil and gas exploration in the Porcupine Basin has been targeting its northern part and is mostly restricted to relatively shallow depths, giving a restrained overview of the basin structure. Therefore, studying the thermodynamic and composition of the deep and broader structures is needed to understand the processes linked to the formation and the symmetry signature of the basin. Here, we model the present-day thermal and compositional structure of the continental crust and lithospheric mantle underneath the Porcupine basin using gravity, seismic, heat flow and elevation data. We use an integrated geophysical-petrological framework where most relevant rock properties (density, seismic velocities) are determined as a function of temperature, pressure and composition. Our modelling approach solves simultaneously the heat transfer, thermodynamic, geopotential, seismic and isostasy equations, and fit the results to all available geophysical and petrological observables (LitMod software). In this work we have implemented a module to compute self-consistently a laterally variable lithospheric elastic thickness based on mineral physics rheological laws (yield strength envelopes over the 3D volume). An appropriate understanding of local and flexural isostatic behavior of the basin is essential to unravel its tectonic history (i.e. stretching factors, subsidence etc.). Our Porcupine basin 3D model is defined by four lithological layers, representing properties from post- and syn-rift sequences to the lithospheric mantle. The computed yield strength envelopes are representative of hyperextended lithosphere and reveal the sensitivity of the lithospheric strength to the geotherm, as well as to the thickness and composition of the crust.

Scaling up watershed model parameters: flow and load simulations of the Edisto River Basin, South Carolina, 2007-09

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Clark, Jimmy M.; Bradley, Paul M.; Conrads, Paul

2014-01-01

As part of an ongoing effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to expand the understanding of relations among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations within the Edisto River Basin, analyses and simulations of the hydrology of the Edisto River Basin were made using the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL). A primary focus of the investigation was to assess the potential for scaling up a previous application of TOPMODEL for the McTier Creek watershed, which is a small headwater catchment to the Edisto River Basin. Scaling up was done in a step-wise manner, beginning with applying the calibration parameters, meteorological data, and topographic-wetness-index data from the McTier Creek TOPMODEL to the Edisto River TOPMODEL. Additional changes were made for subsequent simulations, culminating in the best simulation, which included meteorological and topographic wetness index data from the Edisto River Basin and updated calibration parameters for some of the TOPMODEL calibration parameters. The scaling-up process resulted in nine simulations being made. Simulation 7 best matched the streamflows at station 02175000, Edisto River near Givhans, SC, which was the downstream limit for the TOPMODEL setup, and was obtained by adjusting the scaling factor, including streamflow routing, and using NEXRAD precipitation data for the Edisto River Basin. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model-fit efficiency and Pearson’s correlation coefficient for simulation 7 were 0.78 and 0.89, respectively. Comparison of goodness-of-fit statistics between measured and simulated daily mean streamflow for the McTier Creek and Edisto River models showed that with calibration, the Edisto River TOPMODEL produced slightly better results than the McTier Creek model, despite the substantial difference in the drainage-area size at the outlet locations for the two models (30.7 and 2,725 square miles, respectively). Along with the TOPMODEL hydrologic simulations, a visualization tool (the Edisto River Data Viewer) was developed to help assess trends and influencing variable in the stream ecosystem. Incorporated into the visualization tool were the water-quality load models TOPLOAD, TOPLOAD–H, and LOADEST. Because the focus of this investigation was on scaling up the models from McTier Creek, water-quality concentrations that were previously collected in the McTier Creek Basin were used in the water-quality load models.

Streamflow changes in the Sierra Nevada, California, simulated using a statistically downscaled general circulation model scenario of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, Robert L.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2000-01-01

Simulations of future climate using general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. Of less certainty is the extent to which regional scale (i.e., sub-GCM grid) environmental processes will be affected. In this chapter, a range of downscaling techniques are critiqued. Then a relatively simple (yet robust) statistical downscaling technique and its use in the modelling of future runoff scenarios for three river basins in the Sierra Nevada, California, is described. This region was selected because GCM experiments driven by combined greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol forcings consistently show major changes in the hydro-climate of the southwest United States by the end of the 21st century. The regression-based downscaling method was used to simulate daily rainfall and temperature series for streamflow modelling in three Californian river basins under current-and future-climate conditions. The downscaling involved just three predictor variables (specific humidity, zonal velocity component of airflow, and 500 hPa geopotential heights) supplied by the U.K. Meteorological Office couple ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM2) for the grid point nearest the target basins. When evaluated using independent data, the model showed reasonable skill at reproducing observed area-average precipitation, temperature, and concomitant streamflow variations. Overall, the downscaled data resulted in slight underestimates of mean annual streamflow due to underestimates of precipitation in spring and positive temperature biases in winter. Differences in the skill of simulated streamflows amongst the three basins were attributed to the smoothing effects of snowpack on streamflow responses to climate forcing. The Merced and American River basins drain the western, windward slope of the Sierra Nevada and are snowmelt dominated, whereas the Carson River drains the eastern, leeward slope and is a mix of rainfall runoff and snowmelt runoff. Simulated streamflow in the American River responds rapidly and sensitively to daily-scale temperature and precipitation fluctuations and errors; in the Merced and Carson Rivers, the response to the same short-term influences is much less. Consequently, the skill of simulated flows was significantly lower in the American River model than in the Carson and Merced. The physiography of the three basins also accounts for differences in their sensitivities to future climate change. Increases in winter precipitation exceeding +100% coupled with mean temperature rises greater than +2°C result in increased winter streamflows in all three basins. In the Merced and Carson basins, these streamflow increases reflect large changes in winter snowpack, whereas the streamflow changes in the lower elevation American basin are driven primarily by rainfall runoff. Furthermore, reductions in winter snowpack in the American River basin, owing to less precipitation falling as snow and earlier melting of snow at middle elevations, lead to less spring and summer streamflow. Taken collectively, the downscaling results suggest significant changes to both the timing and magnitude of streamflows in the Sierra Nevada by the end of the 21st Century. In the higher elevation basins, the HadCM2 scenario implies more annual streamflow and more streamflow during the spring and summer months that are critical for water-resources management in California. Depending on the relative significance of rainfall runoff and snowmelt, each basin responds in its own way to regional climate forcing. Generally, then, climate scenarios need to be specified — by whatever means — with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution to capture subtle orographic influences if projections of climate-change responses are to be useful and reproducible.

Regression models of monthly water-level change in and near the Closed Basin Division of the San Luis Valley, south-central Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watts, Kenneth R.

1995-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is developing a water-resource project, the Closed Basin Division, in the San Luis Valley of south-central Colorado that is designed to salvage unconfined ground water that currently is discharged as evapotranspiration. The water table in and near the 130,000-acre Closed Basin Division area will be lowered by an annual withdrawal of as much as 100,000 acre-feet of ground water from the unconfined aquifer. The legislation authorizing the project limits resulting drawdown of the water table in preexisting irrigation and domestic wells outside the Closed Basin Division to a maximum of 2 feet. Water levels in the closed basin in the northern part of the San Luis Valley historically have fluctuated more than 2 feet in response to water-use practices and variation of climatically controlled recharge and discharge. Declines of water levels in nearby wells that are caused by withdrawals in the Closed Basin Division can be quantified if water-level fluctuations that result from other water-use practices and climatic variations can be estimated. This study was done to evaluate water-level change at selected observation wells in and near the Closed Basin Division. Regression models of monthly water-level change were developed to predict monthly water-level change in 46 selected observation wells. Predictions of monthly water-level change are based on one or more of the following: elapsed time, cosine and sine functions with an annual period, streamflow depletion of the Rio Grande, electrical use for agricultural purposes, runoff into the closed basin, precipitation, and mean air temperature. Regression models for five of the wells include only an intercept term and either an elapsed-time term or terms determined by the cosine and sine functions. Regression models for the other 41 wells include 1 to 4 of the 5 other variables, which can vary from month to month and from year to year. Serial correlation of the residuals was detected in 24 of the regression models. These models also include an autoregressive term to account for serial correlation in the residuals. The adjusted coefficient of determination (Ra2) for the 46 regression models range from 0.08 to 0.89, and the standard errors of estimate range from 0.034 to 2.483 feet. The regression models of monthly water- level change can be used to evaluate whether post-1985 monthly water-level change values at the selected observation wells are within the 95-percent confidence limits of predicted monthly water-level change.

3D structure of a complex of transform basins from gravity data, a case study from the central Dead Sea fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenthal, Michal; Schattner, Uri; Ben-Avraham, Zvi

2017-04-01

The Kinneret-Bet She'an (KBS) basin complex comprises the Sea of Galilee, Kinarot, and Bet She'an sub-basins. The complex developed at the intersection between two major tectonic boundaries: the Oligo-Miocene Azraq-Sirhan failed rift, that later developed into the southern Galilee basins and Carmel-Gilboa fault system; and the Dead Sea fault (DSF) plate boundary that developed since the Miocene. Despite numerous studies, KBS still remains one of the enigmatic basin complexes. Its structure, stratigraphy and development are vaguely understood - both inside the basin and in correlation with its surroundings. Our study presents a new and comprehensive 3D model for the structure of KBS complex. It is based on all available gravity measurements, adopted from the national gravity database, and new gravity measurements, collected in cooperation with the Geological Survey of Israel and funded by the Ministry of National Infrastructure, Energy and Water Resources. The gravity data were integrated with constraints from boreholes, surface geology, seismic surveys, potential field studies and teleseismic tomography. The dense distribution of gravity data [1] provides suitable coverage for modeling the deep structure in three dimensions. The model details the spatial distribution, depth, thickness and density of the following regional units within the KBS complex and across its surroundings: upper crust, pre-Senonian sediments, Senonian and Cenozoic sediments, Miocene volcanics, Pliocene and Quaternary volcanics. Additional local units include salt, gabbro and pyroclasts. Results indicate that the KBS complex comprises two sub-basins separated by a structural saddle: Kinneret-Kinarot ( 6-7 km deep, 45 km long) and Bet She'an ( 4 km deep, 10 km long) sub-basin. A 500 m thick layer of Miocene volcanics appears across the Bet She'an sub-basin, yet missing from the Kinneret-Kinarot sub-basin. Between the basins Zemah-1 borehole penetrated a salt unit. The model indicates that this unit is a part of a thick (1250 m) dome-shaped, perhaps diapiric, structure. A relatively thin (350 m) salt unit fills the Kinneret-Kinarot sub-basin. Above, a 700 m thick layer of Pliocene volcanics fills the entire KBS complex. These volcanics are uplifted in the Zemah area by 200 m. The Pliocene volcanics dip northward from Zemah towards the center of the Sea of Galilee, and further north the Pliocene volcanics dip southward from Korazim towards the center of the Sea of Galilee. The depth differences exceed 3 km across a distance of 15 km, forming a 11° slope below the younger Quaternary fill of the basin. A low-density, probably pyroclastic, lens is calculated within the uppermost 2 km of the Sea of Galilee fill. Scenarios for the development of the basin are discussed. [1] Rosenthal, M., Segev, A., Rybakov, M., Lyakhovsky, V. and Ben-Avraham, Z. (2015) The deep structure and density distribution of northern Israel and its surroundings. GSI Report No. GSI/12/2015, 33 pages, Jerusalem.

Hydrologic and water-quality characterization and modeling of the Chenoweth Run basin, Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Gary R.; Zarriello, Phillip J.; Shipp, Allison A.

2001-01-01

Rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data collected in the Chenoweth Run Basin during February 1996?January 1998, in combination with the available historical sampling data, were used to characterize hydrologic conditions and to develop and calibrate a Hydrological Simulation Program?Fortran (HSPF) model for continuous simulation of rainfall, streamflow, suspended-sediment, and total-orthophosphate (TPO4) transport relations. Study results provide an improved understanding of basin hydrology and a hydrologic-modeling framework with analytical tools for use in comprehensive waterresource planning and management. Chenoweth Run Basin, encompassing 16.5 mi2 in suburban eastern Jefferson County, Kentucky, contains expanding urban development, particularly in the upper third of the basin. Historical water-quality problems have interfered with designated aquatic-life and recreation uses in the stream main channel (approximately 9 mi in length) and have been attributed to organic enrichment, nutrients, metals, and pathogens in urban runoff and wastewater inflows. Hydrologic conditions in Jefferson County are highly varied. In the Chenoweth Run Basin, as in much of the eastern third of the county, relief is moderately sloping to steep. Also, internal drainage in pervious areas is impeded by the shallow, fine-textured subsoils that contain abundant silts and clays. Thus, much of the precipitation here tends to move rapidly as overland flow and (or) shallow subsurface flow (interflow) to the stream channels. Data were collected at two streamflowgaging stations, one rain gage, and four waterquality- sampling sites in the basin. Precipitation, streamflow, and, consequently, constituent loads were above normal during the data-collection period of this study. Nonpoint sources contributed the largest portion of the sediment loads. However, the three wastewatertreatment plants (WWTP?s) were the source of the majority of estimated total phosphorus (TP) and TPO4 transport downstream from the WWTP?s. HSPF, a hydrologic model capable of simulating mixed-land-use basins, includes land surface, subsurface, and instream waterquantity- and water-quality-modeling components. The HSPF model was used to represent several important hydrologic features of the Chenoweth Run Basin including (1) numerous small lakes and ponds, through which approximately 25 percent of the basin drains; (2) potential seasonal ground-waterseepage losses in stream channels; (3) contributions from WWTP effluents and bypass flows; and (4) the transport and transformations of sediments and nutrients. The HSPF model was calibrated and verified for flow simulation on the basis of measured total, annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, hourly, and 5-minute-interval storm discharge data. The occurrence of numerous storms during the study period permitted a splitsample procedure to be used for a model verification on the basis of storm volumes and peaks. Total simulated and observed discharge during the model calibration period differed by approximately -5.4 percent at the upper gaging station and 3.1 percent at the lower station. The model results for the total and annual water balances were classified as very good on the basis of the calibration criteria reported in other modeling studies. The model had correlation coefficients ranging from 0.89 to 0.98 for hourly to monthly mean flows, respectively. The coefficients of model-fit efficiency for daily and monthly discharge simulations were near the excellent range (exceeding 0.97). However, the model was calibrated for a comparatively short 24-month period during which flows were above normal. Increased model error might be expected during an extended period of nearnormal flows. The model was calibrated for simulation of sediment and TPO4 transport. The simulated mean-annual load (over 24 months) ranged from -33 to -28 percent of the estimated sediment load and within +/- 1 percent of the estimated TPO4 load at the two streamflow-gaging s

Impacts of Changing Climate, Hydrology and Land Use on the Stormwater Runoff of Urbanizing Central Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huq, E.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2017-12-01

We computed the historical and future storm runoff scenarios for the Shingle Creek Basin, including the growing urban centers of central Florida (e.g., City of Orlando). Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1) of US EPA was used to develop a mechanistic hydrologic model for the basin by incorporating components of urban hydrology, hydroclimatological variables, and land use/cover features. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow of 2004-2013 near the outlet of the Shingle Creek. The calibrated model was used to compute the sensitivities of stormwater budget to reference changes in hydroclimatological variables (rainfall and evapotranspiration) and land use/cover features (imperviousness, roughness). Basin stormwater budgets for the historical (2010s = 2004-2013) and future periods (2050s = 2030-2059; 2080s = 2070-2099) were also computed based on downscaled climatic projections of 20 GCMs-RCMs representing the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), and anticipated changes in land use/cover. The sensitivity analyses indicated the dominant drivers of urban runoff in the basin. Comparative assessment of the historical and future stormwater runoff scenarios helped to locate basin areas that would be at a higher risk of future stormwater flooding. Importance of the study lies in providing valuable guidelines for managing stormwater flooding in central Florida and similar growing urban centers around the world.

Identification and simulation of space-time variability of past hydrological drought events in the Limpopo river basin, Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trambauer, P.; Maskey, S.; Werner, M.; Pappenberger, F.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Uhlenbrook, S.

2014-03-01

Droughts are widespread natural hazards and in many regions their frequency seems to be increasing. A finer resolution version (0.05° x 0.05°) of the continental scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was set up for the Limpopo river basin, one of the most water stressed basins on the African continent. An irrigation module was included to account for large irrigated areas of the basin. The finer resolution model was used to analyse droughts in the Limpopo river basin in the period 1979-2010 with a view to identifying severe droughts that have occurred in the basin. Evaporation, soil moisture, groundwater storage and runoff estimates from the model were derived at a spatial resolution of 0.05° (approximately 5 km) on a daily time scale for the entire basin. PCR-GLOBWB was forced with daily precipitation, temperature and other meteorological variables obtained from the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis product from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Two agricultural drought indicators were computed: the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) and the Root Stress Anomaly Index (RSAI). Hydrological drought was characterised using the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and the Groundwater Resource Index (GRI), which make use of the streamflow and groundwater storage resulting from the model. Other more widely used drought indicators, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) were also computed for different aggregation periods. Results show that a carefully set up process-based model that makes use of the best available input data can successfully identify hydrological droughts even if the model is largely uncalibrated. The indicators considered are able to represent the most severe droughts in the basin and to some extent identify the spatial variability of droughts. Moreover, results show the importance of computing indicators that can be related to hydrological droughts, and how these add value to the identification of droughts/floods and the temporal evolution of events that would otherwise not have been apparent when considering only meteorological indicators. In some cases, meteorological indicators alone fail to capture the severity of the drought. Therefore, a combination of some of these indicators (e.g. SPEI-3, SRI-6, SPI-12) is found to be a useful measure for identifying hydrological droughts in the Limpopo river basin. Additionally, it is possible to make a characterisation of the drought severity, indicated by its duration and intensity.

Use of regional climate model output for hydrologic simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; Clark, M.P.; Wilby, R.L.; Gutowski, W.J.; Leavesley, G.H.; Pan, Z.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.

2002-01-01

Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from a regional climate model (RegCM2) configured using the continental United States as a domain and run on a 52-km (approximately) spatial resolution were used as input to a distributed hydrologic model for one rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango. Colorado; east fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada: and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). For comparison purposes, spatially averaged daily datasets of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature were developed from measured data for each basin. These datasets included precipitation and temperature data for all stations (hereafter, All-Sta) located within the area of the RegCM2 output used for each basin, but excluded station data used to calibrate the hydrologic model. Both the RegCM2 output and All-Sta data capture the gross aspects of the seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature. However, in all four basins, the RegCM2- and All-Sta-based simulations of runoff show little skill on a daily basis [Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) values range from 0.05 to 0.37 for RegCM2 and -0.08 to 0.65 for All-Sta]. When the precipitation and temperature biases are corrected in the RegCM2 output and All-Sta data (Bias-RegCM2 and Bias-All, respectively) the accuracy of the daily runoff simulations improve dramatically for the snowmelt-dominated basins (NS values range from 0.41 to 0.66 for RegCM2 and 0.60 to 0.76 for All-Sta). In the rainfall-dominated basin, runoff simulations based on the Bias-RegCM2 output show no skill (NS value of 0.09) whereas Bias-All simulated runoff improves (NS value improved from - 0.08 to 0.72). These results indicate that measured data at the coarse resolution of the RegCM2 output can be made appropriate for basin-scale modeling through bias correction (essentially a magnitude correction). However, RegCM2 output, even when bias corrected, does not contain the day-to-day variability present in the All-Sta dataset that is necessary for basin-scale modeling. Future work is warranted to identify the causes for systematic biases in RegCM2 simulations, develop methods to remove the biases, and improve RegCM2 simulations of daily variability in local climate.

Modeling Surface Water Dynamics in the Amazon Basin Using Mosart-Inundation-v1.0: Impacts of Geomorphological Parameters and River Flow Representation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luo, Xiangyu; Li, Hong-Yi; Leung, Ruby; Tesfa, Teklu K.; Getirana, Augusto; Papa, Fabrice; Hess, Laura L.

2017-01-01

Surface water dynamics play an important role in water, energy and carbon cycles of the Amazon Basin. A macro-scale inundation scheme was integrated with a surface-water transport model and the extended model was applied in this vast basin. We addressed the challenges of improving basin-wide geomorphological parameters and river flow representation for 15 large-scale applications. Vegetation-caused biases embedded in the HydroSHEDS DEM data were alleviated by using a vegetation height map of about 1-km resolution and a land cover dataset of about 90-m resolution. The average elevation deduction from the DEM correction was about 13.2 m for the entire basin. Basin-wide empirical formulae for channel cross-sectional geometry were adjusted based on local information for the major portion of the basin, which could significantly reduce the cross-sectional area for the channels of some subregions. The Manning roughness coefficient of the channel 20 varied with the channel depth to reflect the general rule that the relative importance of riverbed resistance in river flow declined with the increase of river size. The entire basin was discretized into 5395 subbasins (with an average area of 1091.7 km2), which were used as computation units. The model was driven by runoff estimates of 14 years (1994 2007) generated by the ISBA land surface model. The simulated results were evaluated against in situ streamflow records, and remotely sensed Envisat altimetry data and GIEMS inundation data. The hydrographs were reproduced fairly well for the majority of 25 13 major stream gauges. For the 11 subbasins containing or close to 11 of the 13 gauges, the timing of river stage fluctuations was captured; for most of the 11 subbasins, the magnitude of river stage fluctuations was represented well. The inundation estimates were comparable to the GIEMS observations. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that refining floodplain topography, channel morphology and Manning roughness coefficients, as well as accounting for backwater effects could evidently affect local and upstream inundation, which consequently affected flood waves and inundation of the downstream 30 area. It was also shown that the river stage was sensitive to local channel morphology and Manning roughness coefficients, as well as backwater effects. The understanding obtained in this study could be helpful to improving modeling of surface hydrology in basins with evident inundation, especially at regional or larger scales.

Modeling regional variation in riverine fish biodiversity in the Arkansas-White-Red River basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schweizer, Peter E; Jager, Yetta

The patterns of biodiversity in freshwater systems are shaped by biogeography, environmental gradients, and human-induced factors. In this study, we developed empirical models to explain fish species richness in subbasins of the Arkansas White Red River basin as a function of discharge, elevation, climate, land cover, water quality, dams, and longitudinal position. We used information-theoretic criteria to compare generalized linear mixed models and identified well-supported models. Subbasin attributes that were retained as predictors included discharge, elevation, number of downstream dams, percent forest, percent shrubland, nitrate, total phosphorus, and sediment. The random component of our models, which assumed a negative binomialmore » distribution, included spatial correlation within larger river basins and overdispersed residual variance. This study differs from previous biodiversity modeling efforts in several ways. First, obtaining likelihoods for negative binomial mixed models, and thereby avoiding reliance on quasi-likelihoods, has only recently become practical. We found the ranking of models based on these likelihood estimates to be more believable than that produced using quasi-likelihoods. Second, because we had access to a regional-scale watershed model for this river basin, we were able to include model-estimated water quality attributes as predictors. Thus, the resulting models have potential value as tools with which to evaluate the benefits of water quality improvements to fish.« less

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra; ...

2017-11-20

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

Mechanisms Of Saucer-Shaped Sill Emplacement: Insight From Experimental Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galland, O.; Planke, S.; Malthe-Sørenssen, A.; Polteau, S.; Svensen, H.; Podladchikov, Y. Y.

2006-12-01

It has been recently demonstrated that magma intrusions in sedimentary basins had a strong impact on petroleum systems. Most of these intrusions are sills, and especially saucer-shaped sills. These features can be observed in many sedimentary basins (i.e. the Karoo basin, South Africa; the Norwegian and North Sea; the Tunguska basin, Siberia; the Neuquén basin in Argentina). The occurrence of such features in so various settings suggests that their emplacement results from fundamental processes. However, the mechanisms that govern their formation remain poorly constrained. Experiments were conducted to simulate the emplacement of saucer-shaped magma intrusions in sedimentary basins. The model rock and magma were fine-grained silica flour and molten vegetable oil, respectively. This modeling technique allows simultaneous simulation of magma emplacement and brittle deformation at a basin scale. For our purpose, we performed our experiments without external deformation. During the experiments, the oil was injected horizontally at constant flow rate within the silica flour. Then the oil initially emplaced in a sill, whereas the surface of the model inflated into a smooth dome. Subsequently, the oil propagated upwards along inclined sheets, finally reaching the surface at the edge of the dome. The resulting geometries of the intrusions were saucer-shaped sills. Then the oil solidified, and the model was cut in serial cross-sections through which the structures of the intrusive body and of the overburden can be observed. In order to constraint the processes governing the emplacement of such features, we performed a parametric study based on a set of experiments in which we systematically varied parameters such as the depth of emplacement and the injection flow rate of the oil. Our results showed that saucer diameters are larger at deeper level of emplacement. Opposite trend was obtained with varying injection flow rates. Based on our results, we conducted a detailed physical analysis that resulted in the definition of a dimensionless parameter that governs the emplacement of saucers.

Aqua-planet simulations of the formation of the South Atlantic convergence zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nieto Ferreira, Rosana; Chao, Winston C.

2013-01-01

The impact of Amazon Basin convection and cold fronts on the formation and maintenance of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) is studied using aqua-planet simulations with a general circulation model. In the model, a circular patch of warm sea-surface temperature (SST) is used to mimic the effect of the Amazon Basin on South American monsoon convection. The aqua-planet simulations were designed to study the effect of the strength and latitude of Amazon Basin convection on the formation of the SACZ. The simulations indicate that the strength of the SACZ increases as the Amazon convection intensifies and is moved away from the equator. Of the two controls studied here, the latitude of the Amazon convection exerts the strongest effect on the strength of the SACZ. An analysis of the synoptic-scale variability in the simulations shows the importance of frontal systems in the formation of the aqua-planet SACZ. Composite time series of frontal systems that occurred in the simulations show that a robust SACZ occurs when fronts penetrate into the subtropics and become stationary there as they cross eastward of the longitude of the Amazon Basin. Moisture convergence associated with these frontal systems produces rainfall not along the model SACZ region and along a large portion of the northern model Amazon Basin. Simulations in which the warm SST patch was too weak or too close to the equator did not produce frontal systems that extended into the tropics and became stationary, and did not form a SACZ. In the model, the SACZ forms as Amazon Basin convection strengthens and migrates far enough southward to allow frontal systems to penetrate into the tropics and stall over South America. This result is in agreement with observations that the SACZ tends to form after the onset of the monsoon season in the Amazon Basin.

Regional analysis of ground-water recharge: Chapter B in Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States (Professional Paper 1703)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Stonestrom, David A.; Constantz, Jim; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Leake, Stanley A.

2007-01-01

A modeling analysis of runoff and ground-water recharge for the arid and semiarid southwestern United States was performed to investigate the interactions of climate and other controlling factors and to place the eight study-site investigations into a regional context. A distributed-parameter water-balance model (the Basin Characterization Model, or BCM) was used in the analysis. Data requirements of the BCM included digital representations of topography, soils, geology, and vegetation, together with monthly time-series of precipitation and air-temperature data. Time-series of potential evapotranspiration were generated by using a submodel for solar radiation, taking into account topographic shading, cloudiness, and vegetation density. Snowpack accumulation and melting were modeled using precipitation and air-temperature data. Amounts of water available for runoff and ground-water recharge were calculated on the basis of water-budget considerations by using measured- and generated-meteorologic time series together with estimates of soil-water storage and saturated hydraulic conductivity of subsoil geologic units. Calculations were made on a computational grid with a horizontal resolution of about 270 meters for the entire 1,033,840 square-kilometer study area. The modeling analysis was composed of 194 basins, including the eight basins containing ground-water recharge-site investigations. For each grid cell, the BCM computed monthly values of potential evapotranspiration, soil-water storage, in-place ground-water recharge, and runoff (potential stream flow). A fixed percentage of runoff was assumed to become recharge beneath channels operating at a finer resolution than the computational grid of the BCM. Monthly precipitation and temperature data from 1941 to 2004 were used to explore climatic variability in runoff and ground-water recharge.The selected approach provided a framework for classifying study-site basins with respect to climate and dominant recharge processes. The average climate for all 194 basins ranged from hyperarid to humid, with arid and semiarid basins predominating (fig. 6, chapter A, this volume). Four of the 194 basins had an aridity index of dry subhumid; two of the basins were humid. Of the eight recharge-study sites, six were in semiarid basins, and two were in arid basins. Average-annual potential evapotranspiration showed a regional gradient from less than 1 m/yr in the northeastern part of the study area to more than 2 m/yr in the southwestern part of the study area. Average-annual precipitation was lowest in the two arid-site basins and highest in the two study-site basins in southern Arizona. The relative amount of runoff to in-place recharge varied throughout the study area, reflecting differences primarily in soil water-holding capacity, saturated hydraulic conductivity of subsoil materials, and snowpack dynamics. Climatic forcing expressed in El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indices strongly influenced the generation of precipitation throughout the study area. Positive values of both indices correlated with the highest amounts of runoff and ground-water recharge.

A point-infiltration model for estimating runoff from rainfall on small basins in semiarid areas of Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rankl, James G.

1990-01-01

A physically based point-infiltration model was developed for computing infiltration of rainfall into soils and the resulting runoff from small basins in Wyoming. The user describes a 'design storm' in terms of average rainfall intensity and storm duration. Information required to compute runoff for the design storm by using the model include (1) soil type and description, and (2) two infiltration parameters and a surface-retention storage parameter. Parameter values are tabulated in the report. Rainfall and runoff data for three ephemeral-stream basins that contain only one type of soil were used to develop the model. Two assumptions were necessary: antecedent soil moisture is some long-term average, and storm rainfall is uniform in both time and space. The infiltration and surface-retention storage parameters were determined for the soil of each basin. Observed rainstorm and runoff data were used to develop a separation curve, or incipient-runoff curve, which distinguishes between runoff and nonrunoff rainfall data. The position of this curve defines the infiltration and surface-retention storage parameters. A procedure for applying the model to basins that contain more than one type of soil was developed using data from 7 of the 10 study basins. For these multiple-soil basins, the incipient-runoff curve defines the infiltration and retention-storage parameters for the soil having the highest runoff potential. Parameters were defined by ranking the soils according to their relative permeabilities and optimizing the position of the incipient-runoff curve by using measured runoff as a control for the fit. Analyses of runoff from multiple-soil basins indicate that the effective contributing area of runoff is less than the drainage area of the basin. In this study, the effective drainage area ranged from 41.6 to 71.1 percent of the total drainage area. Information on effective drainage area is useful in evaluating drainage area as an independent variable in statistical analyses of hydrologic data, such as annual peak frequency distributions and sediment yield.A comparison was made of the sum of the simulated runoff and the sum of the measured runoff for all available records of runoff-producing storms in the 10 study basins. The sums of the simulated runoff ranged from 12.0 percent less than to 23.4 percent more than the sums of the measured runoff. A measure of the standard error of estimate was computed for each data set. These values ranged from 20 to 70 percent of the mean value of the measured runoff. Rainfall-simulator infiltrometer tests were made in two small basins. The amount of water uptake measured by the test in Dugout Creek tributary basin averaged about three times greater than the amount of water uptake computed from rainfall and runoff data. Therefore, infiltrometer data were not used to determine infiltration rates for this study.

Partitioning of the water budget in the main river basins in High Mountain Asia with GRACE, model output, and other observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velicogna, I.; Ciraci, E.; Grogan, D. S.; Lammers, R. B.

2017-12-01

Access to freshwater is important as world populations grow, especially in High Mountain Asia, where glaciers are a significant component of the freshwater resources, particularly in summer. Glaciers are sensitive to climate perturbations and affected by climate change. Our understanding of the contribution of glacier runoff to specific watersheds, and projections of glacier runoff in a warming climate, are critical to inform decisions, management and policy development. Here, we quantify changes in glacier mass balance in HMA using GRACE data and determine their contribution to river basin hydrology. We use GRACE data to estimate the HMA glacier mass mas balance and compare the results with changes in total water storage (TWS) for the major watersheds in the HMA regions. We designed ad-hoc mascon configurations to calculate the upstream glacier change in mass balance and contribution to major river basins water supply, determined appropriate corrections and uncertainties for the signal and evaluated the results via comparison with the Water Balance Model (WBM) output and other data (re-analysis data and satellite-derived precipitation and evapotranspiration). Most of the glacier loss is from the Himalaya region (Himalaya, Hengduan Shan S and E Tibet), whereas the western sectors (E and W Tien Shan; and Hindu Kush, Karakoram, W Kunlun, Pamir, Hissar Alay) experienced smaller losses but with larger interannual variability driven by changes in the westerly-driven winter precipitation. For the Indus basin, to evaluate the glacier contribution to the total water budget, we examine the contribution of the upper basin to the lower basin TWS change. Over the Upper Indus basin, we find that the seasonal decline in total water storage between May and September averages 88 Gt during 2002-2012. TRMM cumulative precipitation amounts to 119 Gt, leaving a runoff and evapotranspiration component of 207 Gt. This estimate compares well with an estimate for the WBM modeled runoff of 178 Gt and ET from remote sensing observations. We use these upper basin estimates to close the water budget in the downstream basin using GRACE TWS in conjunction with ancillary data from modeled and observed evapotranspiration, precipitation and runoff. We apply a similar methodology to other major basins. This work was conducted under a NASA contract.

Updated estimates of long-term average dissolved-solids loading in streams and rivers of the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Anning, David W.

2014-01-01

The Colorado River and its tributaries supply water to more than 35 million people in the United States and 3 million people in Mexico, irrigating over 4.5 million acres of farmland, and annually generating about 12 billion kilowatt hours of hydroelectric power. The Upper Colorado River Basin, part of the Colorado River Basin, encompasses more than 110,000 mi2 and is the source of much of more than 9 million tons of dissolved solids that annually flows past the Hoover Dam. High dissolved-solids concentrations in the river are the cause of substantial economic damages to users, primarily in reduced agricultural crop yields and corrosion, with damages estimated to be greater than 300 million dollars annually. In 1974, the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act created the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Program to investigate and implement a broad range of salinity control measures. A 2009 study by the U.S. Geological Survey, supported by the Salinity Control Program, used the Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes surface-water quality model to examine dissolved-solids supply and transport within the Upper Colorado River Basin. Dissolved-solids loads developed for 218 monitoring sites were used to calibrate the 2009 Upper Colorado River Basin Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes dissolved-solids model. This study updates and develops new dissolved-solids loading estimates for 323 Upper Colorado River Basin monitoring sites using streamflow and dissolved-solids concentration data through 2012, to support a planned Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes modeling effort that will investigate the contributions to dissolved-solids loads from irrigation and rangeland practices.

Numerical Simulation of The Mediterranean Sea Using Diecast: Interaction Between Basin, Sub-basin and Local Scale Features and Natural Variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, V.; Dietrich, D. E.; Haney, R. L.; Tintoré, J.

In situ and satellite data obtained during the last ten years have shown that the circula- tion in the Mediterranean Sea is extremely complex in space, with significant features ranging from mesoscale to sub-basin and basin scale, and highly variable in time, with mesoscale to seasonal and interannual signals. Also, the steep bottom topography and the variable atmospheric conditions from one sub-basin to another, make the circula- tion to be composed of numerous energetic and narrow coastal currents, density fronts and mesoscale structures that interact at sub-basin scale with the large scale circula- tion. To simulate numerically and better understand these features, besides high grid resolution, a low numerical dispersion and low physical dissipation ocean model is required. We present the results from a 1/8z horizontal resolution numerical simula- tion of the Mediterranean Sea using DieCAST ocean model, which meets the above requirements since it is stable with low general dissipation and uses accurate fourth- order-accurate approximations with low numerical dispersion. The simulations are carried out with climatological surface forcing using monthly mean winds and relax- ation towards climatological values of temperature and salinity. The model reproduces the main features of the large basin scale circulation, as well as the seasonal variabil- ity of sub-basin scale currents that are well documented by observations in straits and channels. In addition, DieCAST brings out natural fronts and eddies that usually do not appear in numerical simulations of the Mediterranean and that lead to a natural interannual variability. The role of this intrinsic variability in the general circulation will be discussed.

Estimation of flood-frequency characteristics of small urban streams in North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, J.C.; Pope, B.F.

1996-01-01

A statewide study was conducted to develop methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods of small urban streams in North Carolina. This type of information is critical in the design of bridges, culverts and water-control structures, establishment of flood-insurance rates and flood-plain regulation, and for other uses by urban planners and engineers. Concurrent records of rainfall and runoff data collected in small urban basins were used to calibrate rainfall-runoff models. Historic rain- fall records were used with the calibrated models to synthesize a long- term record of annual peak discharges. The synthesized record of annual peak discharges were used in a statistical analysis to determine flood- frequency distributions. These frequency distributions were used with distributions from previous investigations to develop a database for 32 small urban basins in the Blue Ridge-Piedmont, Sand Hills, and Coastal Plain hydrologic areas. The study basins ranged in size from 0.04 to 41.0 square miles. Data describing the size and shape of the basin, level of urban development, and climate and rural flood charac- teristics also were included in the database. Estimation equations were developed by relating flood-frequency char- acteristics to basin characteristics in a generalized least-squares regression analysis. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, impervious area, and rural flood discharge. The model error and prediction errors for the estimating equations were less than those for the national flood-frequency equations previously reported. Resulting equations, which have prediction errors generally less than 40 percent, can be used to estimate flood-peak discharges for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals for small urban basins across the State assuming negligible, sustainable, in- channel detention or basin storage.

Gas hydrate saturation and distribution in the Kumano Forearc Basin of the Nankai Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Jihui; Tsuji, Takeshi; Matsuoka, Toshifumi

2017-02-01

The Kumano Forearc Basin is located to the south-east of the Kii Peninsula, Japan, overlying the accretionary prism in the Nankai Trough. The presence of gas hydrate in submarine sediments of the forearc basin has resulted in the widespread occurrence of bottom simulating reflectors (BSRs) on seismic profiles, and has caused distinct anomalies in logging data in the region. We estimated the in situ gas hydrate saturation from logging data by using three methods: effective rock physics models, Archie's equation, and empirical relationships between acoustic impedance (AI) and water-filled porosity. The results derived from rock physics models demonstrate that gas hydrates are attached to the grain surfaces of the rock matrix and are not floating in pore space. By applying the empirical relationships to the AI distribution derived from model-based AI inversion of the three-dimensional (3D) seismic data, we mapped the spatial distribution of hydrate saturation within the Kumano Basin and characterised locally concentrated gas hydrates. Based on the results, we propose two different mechanisms of free gas supply to explain the process of gas hydrate formation in the basin: (1) migration along inclined strata that dip landwards, and (2) migration through the faults or cracks generated by intensive tectonic movements of the accretionary prism. The dipping strata with relatively low AI in the forearc basin could indicate the presence of hydrate formation due to gas migration along the dipping strata. However, high hydrate concentration is observed at fault zones with high pore pressures, thus the second mechanism likely plays an important role in the genesis of gas hydrates in the Kumano Basin. Therefore, the tectonic activities in the accretionary wedge significantly influence the hydrate saturation and distribution in the Kumano Forearc Basin.

Nutrient loads in the river mouth of the Río Verde basin in Jalisco, Mexico: how to prevent eutrophication in the future reservoir?

PubMed

Jayme-Torres, Gonzalo; Hansen, Anne M

2017-10-04

Since nutrients are emitted and mobilized in river basins, causing eutrophication of water bodies, it is important to reduce such emissions and subsequent nutrient loads. Due to processes of attenuation, nutrient loads are reduced during their mobilization in river basins. At the mouth of the Río Verde basin in western Mexico, the El Purgatorio dam is being constructed to supply water to the metropolitan area of the second most populated city in the country, Guadalajara. To analyze situations that allow protecting this future dam from eutrophication, nutrient loads in the mouth of the river basin were determined and their reduction scenarios evaluated by using the NEWS2 (Nutrient Export from Watersheds) model. For this, a nutrient emissions inventory was established and used to model nutrient loads, and modeling results were compared to an analysis of water quality data from two different monitoring sites located on the river. The results suggest that 96% of nitrogen and 99% of phosphorus emissions are attenuated in the watershed. Nutrient loads reaching the mouth of the river basin come mainly from wastewater discharges, followed by livestock activities and different land uses, and loads are higher as emissions are located closer to the mouth of the river basin. To achieve and maintain mesotrophic state of water in the future dam, different nutrient emission reduction scenarios were evaluated. According to these results, the reduction of 90% of the phosphorus loads in wastewater emissions or 75% of the phosphorus loads in wastewater emissions and at least 50% in emissions from livestock activities in the river basin are required.

Formation of South Pole-Aitken Basin as the Result of an Oblique Impact: Implications for Melt Volume and Source of Exposed Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petro, N. E.

2012-01-01

The South Pole-Aitken Basin (SPA) is the largest, deepest, and oldest identified basin on the Moon and contains surfaces that are unique due to their age, composition, and depth of origin in the lunar crust [1-3] (Figure 1). SPA has been a target of interest as an area for robotic sample return in order to determine the age of the basin and the composition and origin of its interior [3-6]. As part of the investigation into the origin of SPA materials there have been several efforts to estimate the likely provenance of regolith material in central SPA [5, 6]. These model estimates suggest that, despite the formation of basins and craters following SPA, the regolith within SPA is dominated by locally derived material. An assumption inherent in these models has been that the locally derived material is primarily SPA impact-melt as opposed to local basement material (e.g. unmelted lower crust). However, the definitive identification of SPA derived impact melt on the basin floor, either by remote sensing [2, 7] or via photogeology [8] is extremely difficult due to the number of subsequent impacts and volcanic activity [3, 4]. In order to identify where SPA produced impact melt may be located, it is important to constrain both how much melt would have been produced in a basin forming impact and the likely source of such melted material. Models of crater and basin formation [9, 10] present clear rationale for estimating the possible volumes and sources of impact melt produced during SPA formation. However, if SPA formed as the result of an oblique impact [11, 12], the volume and depth of origin of melted material could be distinct from similar material in a vertical impact [13].

Central magnetic anomalies of Nectarian-aged lunar impact basins: Probable evidence for an early core dynamo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, Lon L.

2011-02-01

A re-examination of all available low-altitude LP magnetometer data confirms that magnetic anomalies are present in at least four Nectarian-aged lunar basins: Moscoviense, Mendel-Rydberg, Humboldtianum, and Crisium. In three of the four cases, a single main anomaly is present near the basin center while, in the case of Crisium, anomalies are distributed in a semi-circular arc about the basin center. These distributions, together with a lack of other anomalies near the basins, indicate that the sources of the anomalies are genetically associated with the respective basin-forming events. These central basin anomalies are difficult to attribute to shock remanent magnetization of a shocked central uplift and most probably imply thermoremanent magnetization of impact melt rocks in a steady magnetizing field. Iterative forward modeling of the single strongest and most isolated anomaly, the northern Crisium anomaly, yields a paleomagnetic pole position at 81° ± 19°N, 143° ± 31°E, not far from the present rotational pole. Assuming no significant true polar wander since the Crisium impact, this position is consistent with that expected for a core dynamo magnetizing field. Further iterative forward modeling demonstrates that the remaining Crisium anomalies can be approximately simulated assuming a multiple source model with a single magnetization direction equal to that inferred for the northernmost anomaly. This result is most consistent with a steady, large-scale magnetizing field. The inferred mean magnetization intensity within the strongest basin sources is ˜1 A/m assuming a 1-km thickness for the source layer. Future low-altitude orbital and surface magnetometer measurements will more strongly constrain the depth and/or thicknesses of the sources.

Hydrochemical tracers in the middle Rio Grande Basin, USA: 2. Calibration of a groundwater-flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, W.E.; Plummer, Niel; McAda, D.P.; Bexfield, L.M.; Anderholm, S.K.

2004-01-01

The calibration of a groundwater model with the aid of hydrochemical data has demonstrated that low recharge rates in the Middle Rio Grande Basin may be responsible for a groundwater trough in the center of the basin and for a substantial amount of Rio Grande water in the regional flow system. Earlier models of the basin had difficulty reproducing these features without any hydrochemical data to constrain the rates and distribution of recharge. The objective of this study was to use the large quantity of available hydrochemical data to help calibrate the model parameters, including the recharge rates. The model was constructed using the US Geological Survey's software MODFLOW, MODPATH, and UCODE, and calibrated using 14C activities and the positions of certain flow zones defined by the hydrochemical data. Parameter estimation was performed using a combination of nonlinear regression techniques and a manual search for the minimum difference between field and simulated observations. The calibrated recharge values were substantially smaller than those used in previous models. Results from a 30,000-year transient simulation suggest that recharge was at a maximum about 20,000 years ago and at a minimum about 10,000 years ago. ?? Springer-Verlag 2004.

Water-budgets and recharge-area simulations for the Spring Creek and Nittany Creek Basins and parts of the Spruce Creek Basin, Centre and Huntingdon Counties, Pennsylvania, Water Years 2000–06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulton, John W.; Risser, Dennis W.; Regan, R. Steve; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Markstrom, Steven

2015-08-17

This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with ClearWater Conservancy and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection to develop a hydrologic model to simulate a water budget and identify areas of greater than average recharge for the Spring Creek Basin in central Pennsylvania. The model was developed to help policy makers, natural resource managers, and the public better understand and manage the water resources in the region. The Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW model (GSFLOW), which is an integration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Modular Groundwater Flow Model (MODFLOW-NWT), was used to simulate surface water and groundwater in the Spring Creek Basin for water years 2000–06. Because the groundwater and surface-water divides for the Spring Creek Basin do not coincide, the study area includes the Nittany Creek Basin and headwaters of the Spruce Creek Basin. The hydrologic model was developed by the use of a stepwise process: (1) develop and calibrate a PRMS model and steady-state MODFLOW-NWT model; (2) re-calibrate the steady-state MODFLOW-NWT model using potential recharge estimates simulated from the PRMS model, and (3) integrate the PRMS and MODFLOW-NWT models into GSFLOW. The individually calibrated PRMS and MODFLOW-NWT models were used as a starting point for the calibration of the fully coupled GSFLOW model. The GSFLOW model calibration was done by comparing observations and corresponding simulated values of streamflow from 11 streamgages and groundwater levels from 16 wells. The cumulative water budget and individual water budgets for water years 2000–06 were simulated by using GSFLOW. The largest source and sink terms are represented by precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. For the period simulated, a net surplus in the water budget was computed where inflows exceeded outflows by about 1.7 billion cubic feet (0.47 inches per year over the basin area); storage increased by about the same amount to balance the budget. The rate and distribution of recharge throughout the Spring Creek, Nittany Creek, and Spruce Creek Basins is variable as a result of the high degree of hydrogeologic heterogeneity and karst features. The greatest amount of recharge was simulated in the carbonate-bedrock valley, near the toe slopes of Nittany and Tussey Mountains, in the Scotia Barrens, and along the area coinciding with the Gatesburg Formation. Runoff extremes were observed for water years 2001 (dry year) and 2004 (wet year). Simulated average recharge rates (water reaching the saturated zone as defined in GSFLOW) for 2001 and 2004 were 5.4 in/yr and 22.0 in/yr, respectively. Areas where simulations show large variations in annual recharge between wet and dry years are the same areas where simulated recharge was large. Those areas where rates of groundwater recharge are much higher than average, and are capable of accepting substantially greater quantities of recharge during wet years, might be considered critical for maintaining the flow of springs, stream base flow, or the source of water to supply wells. The slopes of the Bald Eagle, Tussey, and Nittany Mountains are relatively insensitive to variations in recharge, primarily because of reduced infiltration rates and steep slopes.

Reservoir-development impacts on surface-water quantity and quality in the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, D. Briane; Bauer, Daniel P.; Dale, Robert H.; Steele, Timothy Doak

1983-01-01

Development of coal resources and associated economy is accelerating in the Yampa River basin in northwestern Colorado and south-central Wyoming. Increased use of the water resources of the area will have a direct impact on their quantity and quality. As part of 18 surface-water projects, 35 reservoirs have been proposed with a combined total storage of 2.18 million acre-feet, 41% greater than the mean annual outflow from the basin. Three computer models were used to demonstrate methods of evaluating future impacts of reservoir development in the Yampa River basin. Four different reservoir configurations were used to simulate the effects of different degrees of proposed reservoir development. A multireservoir-flow model included both within-basin and transmountain diversions. Simulations indicated that in many cases diversion amounts would not be available for either type of diversion. A corresponding frequency analysis of reservoir storage levels indicated that most reservoirs would be operating with small percentages of total capacities and generally with less than 20% of conservation-pool volumes. Simulations using a dissolved-solids model indicated that extensive reservoir development could increase average annual concentrations at most locations. Simulations using a single-reservoir model indicated no significant occurrence of water-temperature stratification in most reservoirs due to limited reservoir storage. (USGS)

Modeling and Optimization of Recycled Water Systems to Augment Urban Groundwater Recharge through Underutilized Stormwater Spreading Basins.

PubMed

Bradshaw, Jonathan L; Luthy, Richard G

2017-10-17

Infrastructure systems that use stormwater and recycled water to augment groundwater recharge through spreading basins represent cost-effective opportunities to diversify urban water supplies. However, technical questions remain about how these types of managed aquifer recharge systems should be designed; furthermore, existing planning tools are insufficient for performing robust design comparisons. Addressing this need, we present a model for identifying the best-case design and operation schedule for systems that deliver recycled water to underutilized stormwater spreading basins. Resulting systems are optimal with respect to life cycle costs and water deliveries. Through a case study of Los Angeles, California, we illustrate how delivering recycled water to spreading basins could be optimally implemented. Results illustrate trade-offs between centralized and decentralized configurations. For example, while a centralized Hyperion system could deliver more recycled water to the Hansen Spreading Grounds, this system incurs approximately twice the conveyance cost of a decentralized Tillman system (mean of 44% vs 22% of unit life cycle costs). Compared to existing methods, our model allows for more comprehensive and precise analyses of cost, water volume, and energy trade-offs among different design scenarios. This model can inform decisions about spreading basin operation policies and the development of new water supplies.

Low-angle faulting in strike-slip dominated settings: Seismic evidence from the Maritimes Basin, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinet, Nicolas; Dietrich, Jim; Duchesne, Mathieu J.; Hinds, Steve J.; Brake, Virginia

2018-07-01

The Maritimes Basin is an upper Paleozoic sedimentary basin centered in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (Canada). Early phases of basin formation included the development of partly connected sub-basins bounded by high-angle faults, in an overall strike-slip setting. Interpretation of reprocessed seismic reflection data indicates that a low-angle detachment contributed to the formation of a highly asymmetric sub-basin. This detachment was rotated toward a lower angle and succeeded by high-angle faults that sole into the detachment or cut it. This model bears similarities to other highly extended terranes and appears to be applicable to strike-slip and/or transtensional settings.

Degradation and damages from utilizing ecosystem services in a river basin

Treesearch

Travis W. Warziniack

2012-01-01

We examine the tradeoffs between utilizing multiple ecosystem services in an economic model of the Lower Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin. We show how economic development in the basin degraded the ecosystem, but diversified the economy. A degraded ecosystem and more employment opportunities elsewhere reduced the region's reliance on agriculture and other...

An initial abstraction and constant loss model, and methods for estimating unit hydrographs, peak streamflows, and flood volumes for urban basins in Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huizinga, Richard J.

2014-01-01

The rainfall-runoff pairs from the storm-specific GUH analysis were further analyzed against various basin and rainfall characteristics to develop equations to estimate the peak streamflow and flood volume based on a quantity of rainfall on the basin.

Population Genetics of Boise Basin Bull Trout (Salvelinus confluentus)

Treesearch

A.R. Whiteley; P. Spruell; F.W. Allendorf

2003-01-01

We analyzed the population genetic structure of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Boise River Basin, Idaho. We determined the influence of contemporary (including anthropogenic) and historic factors on genetic structure, taking into accountexisting data on bull trout habitat patches in this basin. We tested three models of the organization of genetic structure...

Deep versus shallow controlling factors of the regional thermal field in the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin (Arctic Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheck-Wenderoth, M.; Sippel, J.; Lewerenz, B.

2011-12-01

The present-day temperature distribution of the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin as observed in boreholes indicates large-scale thermal anomalies which have been related to specific tectonic domains and heat transported by convection along major discontinuities (Chen et al., 2008). We have integrated seismic and well data into a crust-scale 3D structural model of the basin, which we have additionally constrained by 3D gravity modelling. This structural model is composed of seven Mesozoic-Cenozoic tectonostratigraphic units which - as a result of a complex foreland depositional and erosional history - tend to be younger, less compacted, and thus less thermally conductive towards the north. The underlying continental crust comprises a low-density upper part (2720 kg/m3 ) and a moderately dense lower part (2850 kg/m3), and it thins considerably towards the north where it passes over to oceanic crust (2900 kg/m2 ). We use the structural model to calculate the 3D conductive thermal field of the basin based on a Finite-Element method, thereby taking one step further towards a quantification of heat transporting processes in this petroliferous region. For the validation of the modelling results, we make use of public domain temperature data from more than 230 wells reaching depths of up to 5000 m. Thermal conductivities are assigned to the different units according to available data sets including also the observed lithology-dependent relationship between conductivity and porosity in the region. The upper boundary condition for the thermal calculations is provided by the well-known depth distribution of the base of permafrost (0 °C isotherm). Assuming a constant heat flow of 30 mW/m2 at the Moho, we find that the modelled temperatures are widely consistent with the observed temperatures in most parts of the basin. Only where large tectonic discontinuities structure the margins of the basin, the misfits are considerable, thus indicating convective heat transport to be an important process. We discuss the predicted temperature variations with respect to the structure of the basin including stratigraphic and tectonic domains, the inferred depth of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, and the distribution of permafrost. Chen, Z., Osadetz, K.G., Issler, D.R., Grasby, S.E., 2008. Hydrocarbon migration detected by regional temperature field variations, Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin, Canada. AAPG Bulletin, 92(12): 1639-1653.

Scale Issues in Modeling the Water Resources Sector in National Economic Models: A Case study of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strzepek, K. M.; Kirshen, P.; Yohe, G.

2001-05-01

The fundamental theme of this research was to investigate tradeoffs in model resolution for modeling water resources in the context of national economic development and capital investment decisions.. Based on a case study of China, the research team has developed water resource models at relatively fine scales, then investigated how they can be aggregated to regional or national scales and for use in national level planning decisions or global scale integrated assessment models of food and/or environmental change issues. The team has developed regional water supply and water demand functions.. Simplifying and aggregating the supply and demand functions will allow reduced form functions of the water sector for inclusion in large scale national economic models. Water Supply Cost functions were developed looking at both surface and groundwater supplies. Surface Water: Long time series of flows at the mouths of the 36 major river sub-basins in China are used in conjunction with different basin reservoir storage quantities to obtain storage-yield curves. These are then combined with reservoir and transmission cost data to obtain yield-cost or surface water demand curves. The methodology to obtain the long time series of flows for each basin is to fit a simple abcd water balance model to each basin. The costs of reservoir storage have been estimated by using a methodology developed in the USA that relates marginal storage costs to existing storage, slope and geological conditions. USA costs functions have then been adjusted to Chinese costs. The costs of some actual dams in China were used to "ground-truth" the methodology. Groundwater: The purpose of the groundwater work is to estimate the recharge in each basin, and the depths and quality of water of aquifers. A byproduct of the application of the abcd water balance model is the recharge. Depths and quality of aquifers are being taken from many separate reports on groundwater in different parts of China; we have been unable to find any global or regional datasets of groundwater.. Combining Surface and Groundwater Supply Functions Water Demand Curves. Water Use data is reported on political regions. Water Supply is reported and modeled on river basin regions. It is necessary to allocate water demands to river basins. To accomplish this China's 9 major river basins were divided into 36 hydroeconomic regions. The counties were then allocated to one of the 36-hydroeconomic zones. The county-level water use data was aggregated to 5 major water use sectors: 1)industry; 2)urban municipal and vegetable gardens: 3) major irrigation; 4) Energy and 5)Other agriculture (forestry, pasture; fishery). Sectoral Demand functions that include price and income elasticity were developed for the 5 sectors for each of the 9 major river basin. The supply and demand curves were aggregated at a variety of geographical scales as well as levels of economic sectoral aggregation. Implications for investment and sustainable development policies were examined for the various aggregation using partial and general equilibrium modeling of the Chinese economy. These results and policy implications for China as well as insights and recommendation for other developing countries will be presented.

Geoacoustic Models for the Straits of Sicily and Sardinia-Tunisia.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-04-01

basin have Bouguer gravity anomalies in excess of +200 milligals, indicating relatively thin crust (Allen and Morelli, 1971). Magnetic anomalies...E. L. and R. T. Bachman (1979a). Geoacoustic Models of the Sea Floor: Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, and Somali Basin. Naval Ocean Systems Center Tech

SWAT ungauged: Hydrological budget and crop yield predictions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Physically based, distributed hydrologic models are increasingly used in assessments of water resources, best management practices, and climate and land use changes. Model performance evaluation in ungauged basins is an important research topic. In this study, we propose a framework for developing S...

EUTROPHICATION MODELING CAPABILITIES FOR WATER QUALITY AND INTEGRATION TOWARDS ECOLOGICAL ENDPOINTS

EPA Science Inventory

A primary environmental focus for the use of mathematical models is for characterization of sources of nutrients and sediments and their relative loadings from large river basins, and the impact of land uses from smaller sub-basins on water quality in rivers, lakes, and estuaries...

THE OHIO RIVER BASIN ENERGY FACILITY SITING MODEL. VOLUME II: SITES AND ON-LINE DATES

EPA Science Inventory

The report was prepared as part of the Ohio River Basin Energy Study (ORBES), a multidisciplinary policy research program. The siting model developed for ORBES is specifically designed for regional policy analysis. The region includes 423 counties in an area that consists of all ...

Estimating water temperatures in small streams in western Oregon using neural network models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John C.; Roehl, Edwin A.; Conrads, Paul

2003-01-01

Artificial neural network models were developed to estimate water temperatures in small streams using data collected at 148 sites throughout western Oregon from June to September 1999. The sites were located on 1st-, 2nd-, or 3rd-order streams having undisturbed or minimally disturbed conditions. Data collected at each site for model development included continuous hourly water temperature and description of riparian habitat. Additional data pertaining to the landscape characteristics of the basins upstream of the sites were assembled using geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Hourly meteorological time series data collected at 25 locations within the study region also were assembled. Clustering analysis was used to partition 142 sites into 3 groups. Separate models were developed for each group. The riparian habitat, basin characteristic, and meteorological time series data were independent variables and water temperature time series were dependent variables to the models, respectively. Approximately one-third of the data vectors were used for model training, and the remaining two-thirds were used for model testing. Critical input variables included riparian shade, site elevation, and percentage of forested area of the basin. Coefficient of determination and root mean square error for the models ranged from 0.88 to 0.99 and 0.05 to 0.59 oC, respectively. The models also were tested and validated using temperature time series, habitat, and basin landscape data from 6 sites that were separate from the 142 sites that were used to develop the models. The models are capable of estimating water temperatures at locations along 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-order streams in western Oregon. The model user must assemble riparian habitat and basin landscape characteristics data for a site of interest. These data, in addition to meteorological data, are model inputs. Output from the models include simulated hourly water temperatures for the June to September period. Adjustments can be made to the shade input data to simulate the effects of minimum or maximum shade on water temperatures.

Modeling effects of secondary tidal basins on estuarine morphodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nnafie, Abdel; Van Oyen, Tomas; De Maerschalck, Bart

2017-04-01

Many estuaries are situated in very densely populated areas with high economic activities that often conflict with their ecological values. For centuries, geometry and bathymetry of estuaries have been drastically modified trough engineering works such as embanking, sand extraction, channel deepening, land reclamations, etc. It is generally recognized that these works may increase the tidal range (e.g., Scheldt, Ems, Elbe) and turbidity (e.g., Loire, Ems) in estuaries [cf. Kerner, 2007; Wang et al., 2009; Winterwerp and Wang, 2013; Van Maren et al., 2015b,a]. In recent years, construction of secondary basins (also called retention basins) has gained increasing popularity among coastal managers to reduce tidal range and turbidity [Donner et al., 2012]. Previous studies have shown that location, geometry and number of secondary basins have a significant impact on tidal characteristics and sediment transport [Alebregtse and de Swart, 2014; Roos and Schuttelaars, 2015]. However, knowledge on how these secondary basins affect the morphodynamic development of estuaries on long time scales (order decades to centuries) is still lacking. The specific objectives of this study are twofold. First, to investigate effects of secondary basins on the long-term morphodynamic evolution of estuaries. In particular, effects of the presence of such a basin on the morphodynamic evolution of the main channel in the estuary and the physics underlying channel migration will be examined. For this, the Western Scheldt estuary (situated in the Netherlands) is used as a case study, which used to consist of multiple secondary tidal basins that were located at different positions in the estuary, and which have been gradually closed off between 1800 and 1968. Second, to systematically quantify sensitivity of model results to location, geometry, and to number of secondary basins. To this end, the state-of-the- art numerical model Delft3D is used, which has been successfully applied to morphodynamic modeling of estuaries and other coastal systems [cf. Hibma et al., 2003; Van der Wegen and Roelvink 2008; Dissanayake et al., 2012; Eelkema et al., 2013; Ridderinkhof et al., 2014]. With this contribution it will be shown that the presence of secondary basins causes, among other things, local migration of the main channel in the vicinity of the basin, and it decreases the overall depth of the channel network. These results agree well with findings from an observational study on historical morphological development of the Western Scheldt estuary. References available upon request

Along-axis crustal structure of the Porcupine Basin from seismic refraction data modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prada, Manel; Watremez, Louise; Chen, Chen; O'Reilly, Brian; Minshull, Tim; Reston, Tim; Wagner, Gerlind; Gaws, Viola; Klaschen, Dirk; Shannon, Patrick

2016-04-01

The Porcupine Basin is a tongue-shaped offshore basin SW of Ireland that formed during the opening of the North Atlantic Ocean. Its history of development involved several rifting and subsidence phases during the Late Paleozoic and Cenozoic, with a particular major rift phase occurring in Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous times. Previous work, focused on subsidence analysis, showed that stretching factors (β) in the northern part of the basin are < 1.5 and increase significantly southwards, where they were estimated to be > 6. However, recent studies based on seismic reflection and refraction profiles concluded that β in places along the basin axis were significantly higher, and suggested the presence of major crustal faulting and uppermost mantle serpentinization in the basin. Constraining β and the processes related to the formation of the basin will provide insights into aspects such as the tectonic response to lithospheric extension and the thermal evolution of the basin. Here we present the tomography results of five wide-angle seismic (WAS) profiles acquired across and along the basin axis. We used a travel time inversion method to model the WAS data and obtain P-wave velocity (Vp) models of the crust and uppermost mantle, together with the geometry of the main geological interfaces along each of these lines. Coincident seismic reflection profiles to each WAS line were also used to integrate the tectonic structure with the Vp model. These results improved constrains on the location of the base of the crust and allow to estimate maximum β (βmax) along each profile. The analysis shows that βmax values in the northern part of the basin are 5-6 times larger than estimates based on subsidence analysis. Towards the south, βmax increases up to 10, but then rapidly decreases to 3.3 southwards. These values are well within the range of crustal extension at which the crust becomes entirely brittle at magma-poor margins allowing the formation of major crustal faulting and serpentinization of the mantle. In agreement with this observation, Vp values of the mantle are lower than those expected for a non-altered mantle (i.e. ~8 km/s) supporting mantle serpentinization. The outcome of this study reveals the complexity of the crustal structure of the Porcupine Basin and demonstrates the importance and value of this type of analysis in understanding rift systems. This project is funded by the Irish Shelf Petroleum Studies Group (ISPSG) of the Irish Petroleum Infrastructure Programme Group 4.

Long-term hydrodynamic response induced by past climatic and geomorphologic forcing: The case of the Paris basin, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jost, A.; Violette, S.; Gonçalvès, J.; Ledoux, E.; Guyomard, Y.; Guillocheau, F.; Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Suc, J.-P.

In the framework of safe underground storage of radioactive waste in low-permeability layers, it is essential to evaluate the mobility of deep groundwaters over timescales of several million years. On these timescales, the environmental evolution of a repository should depend upon a range of natural processes that are primarily driven by climate and geomorphologic variations. In this paper, the response of the Paris basin groundwater system to variations in its hydrodynamic boundary conditions induced by past climate and geodynamic changes over the last five million years is investigated. A three-dimensional transient modelling of the Paris basin aquifer/aquitard system was developed using the code NEWSAM (Ecole des Mines de Paris, ENSMP). The geometry and hydrodynamic parameters of the model originate from a basin model, NEWBAS (ENSMP), built to simulate the geological history of the basin. Geomorphologic evolution is deduced from digital elevation model analysis, which allows to estimate river-valley incision and alpine surrection. Climate forcing results from palaeoclimate modelling experiments using the LMDz atmospheric general circulation model (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) with a refined spatial resolution, for the present, the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and the Middle Pliocene Warmth (˜3 Ma). The water balance is computed by the distributed hydrological model MODSUR (ENSMP). Results about the simulated evolution of piezometric heads in the system in response to the altered boundary conditions are presented, in particular in the vicinity of ANDRA’s Bure potential repository site within the Callovo-Oxfordian argillaceous layer. For the present, the comparison of head patterns between steady state and time dependent simulation shows little differences for aquifer layers close to the surface but suggests a transient state of the current system in the main aquitards of the basin and in the deep aquifers, characterized by abnormally low fluid potentials. The dependence of the boundary-induced transient effects on the hydraulic diffusivity is illustrated by means of a sensitivity study.

Variable Selection for Regression Models of Percentile Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fouad, G.

2017-12-01

Percentile flows describe the flow magnitude equaled or exceeded for a given percent of time, and are widely used in water resource management. However, these statistics are normally unavailable since most basins are ungauged. Percentile flows of ungauged basins are often predicted using regression models based on readily observable basin characteristics, such as mean elevation. The number of these independent variables is too large to evaluate all possible models. A subset of models is typically evaluated using automatic procedures, like stepwise regression. This ignores a large variety of methods from the field of feature (variable) selection and physical understanding of percentile flows. A study of 918 basins in the United States was conducted to compare an automatic regression procedure to the following variable selection methods: (1) principal component analysis, (2) correlation analysis, (3) random forests, (4) genetic programming, (5) Bayesian networks, and (6) physical understanding. The automatic regression procedure only performed better than principal component analysis. Poor performance of the regression procedure was due to a commonly used filter for multicollinearity, which rejected the strongest models because they had cross-correlated independent variables. Multicollinearity did not decrease model performance in validation because of a representative set of calibration basins. Variable selection methods based strictly on predictive power (numbers 2-5 from above) performed similarly, likely indicating a limit to the predictive power of the variables. Similar performance was also reached using variables selected based on physical understanding, a finding that substantiates recent calls to emphasize physical understanding in modeling for predictions in ungauged basins. The strongest variables highlighted the importance of geology and land cover, whereas widely used topographic variables were the weakest predictors. Variables suffered from a high degree of multicollinearity, possibly illustrating the co-evolution of climatic and physiographic conditions. Given the ineffectiveness of many variables used here, future work should develop new variables that target specific processes associated with percentile flows.

Assessment of global nitrogen pollution in rivers using an integrated biogeochemical modeling framework.

PubMed

He, Bin; Kanae, Shinjiro; Oki, Taikan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamashiki, Yosuke; Takara, Kaoru

2011-04-01

This study has analyzed the global nitrogen loading of rivers resulting from atmospheric deposition, direct discharge, and nitrogenous compounds generated by residential, industrial, and agricultural sources. Fertilizer use, population distribution, land cover, and social census data were used in this study. A terrestrial nitrogen cycle model with a 24-h time step and 0.5° spatial resolution was developed to estimate nitrogen leaching from soil layers in farmlands, grasslands, and natural lands. The N-cycle in this model includes the major processes of nitrogen fixation, nitrification, denitrification, immobilization, mineralization, leaching, and nitrogen absorption by vegetation. The previously developed Total Runoff Integrating Pathways network was used to analyze nitrogen transport from natural and anthropogenic sources through river channels, as well as the collecting and routing of nitrogen to river mouths by runoff. Model performance was evaluated through nutrient data measured at 61 locations in several major world river basins. The dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations calculated by the model agreed well with the observed data and demonstrate the reliability of the proposed model. The results indicate that nitrogen loading in most global rivers is proportional to the size of the river basin. Reduced nitrate leaching was predicted for basins with low population density, such as those at high latitudes or in arid regions. Nitrate concentration becomes especially high in tropical humid river basins, densely populated basins, and basins with extensive agricultural activity. On a global scale, agriculture has a significant impact on the distribution of nitrogenous compound pollution. The map of nitrate distribution indicates that serious nitrogen pollution (nitrate concentration: 10-50 mg N/L) has occurred in areas with significant agricultural activities and small precipitation surpluses. Analysis of the model uncertainty also suggests that the nitrate export in most rivers is sensitive to the amount of nitrogen leaching from agricultural lands. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling Soil Erosion in the Densu River Basin Using RUSLE and GIS Tools.

PubMed

Ashiagbori, G; Forkuo, E K; Laari, P; Aabeyir, R

2014-07-01

Soil erosion involves detachment and transport of soil particles from top soil layers, degrading soil quality and reducing the productivity of affected lands. Soil eroded from the upland catchment causes depletion of fertile agricultural land and the resulting sediment deposited at the river networks creates river morphological change and reservoir sedimentation problems. However, land managers and policy makers are more interested in the spatial distribution of soil erosion risk than in absolute values of soil erosion loss. The aim of this paper is to model the spatial distribution of soil erosion in Densu River Basin of Ghana using RUSLE and GIS tools and to use the model to explore the relationship between erosion susceptibility, slope and land use/land cover (LULC) in the Basin. The rainfall map, digital elevation model, soil type map, and land cover map, were input data in the soil erosion model developed. This model was then categorized into four different erosion risk classes. The developed soil erosion map was then overlaid with the slope and LULC maps of the study area to explore their effects on erosion susceptibility of the soil in the Densu River Basin. The Model, predicted 88% of the basin as low erosion risk and 6% as moderate erosion risk, 3% as high erosion risk and 3% as severe risk. The high and severe erosion areas were distributed mainly within the areas of high slope gradient and also sections of the moderate forest LULC class. Also, the areas within the moderate forest LULC class found to have high erosion risk, had an intersecting high erodibility soil group.

Simulation of nitrate reduction in groundwater - An upscaling approach from small catchments to the Baltic Sea basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, A. L.; Donnelly, C.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Karlsson, I. B.

2018-01-01

This paper describes a modeling approach proposed to simulate the impact of local-scale, spatially targeted N-mitigation measures for the Baltic Sea Basin. Spatially targeted N-regulations aim at exploiting the considerable spatial differences in the natural N-reduction taking place in groundwater and surface water. While such measures can be simulated using local-scale physically-based catchment models, use of such detailed models for the 1.8 million km2 Baltic Sea basin is not feasible due to constraints on input data and computing power. Large-scale models that are able to simulate the Baltic Sea basin, on the other hand, do not have adequate spatial resolution to simulate some of the field-scale measures. Our methodology combines knowledge and results from two local-scale physically-based MIKE SHE catchment models, the large-scale and more conceptual E-HYPE model, and auxiliary data in order to enable E-HYPE to simulate how spatially targeted regulation of agricultural practices may affect N-loads to the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the use of E-HYPE with this upscaling methodology enables the simulation of the impact on N-loads of applying a spatially targeted regulation at the Baltic Sea basin scale to the correct order-of-magnitude. The E-HYPE model together with the upscaling methodology therefore provides a sound basis for large-scale policy analysis; however, we do not expect it to be sufficiently accurate to be useful for the detailed design of local-scale measures.

Modeling and validation of a 3D velocity structure for the Santa Clara Valley, California, for seismic-wave simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.; Harmsen, S.; Williams, R.A.; Carver, D.; Frankel, A.; Choy, G.; Liu, P.-C.; Jachens, R.C.; Brocher, T.M.; Wentworth, C.M.

2006-01-01

A 3D seismic velocity and attenuation model is developed for Santa Clara Valley, California, and its surrounding uplands to predict ground motions from scenario earthquakes. The model is developed using a variety of geologic and geophysical data. Our starting point is a 3D geologic model developed primarily from geologic mapping and gravity and magnetic surveys. An initial velocity model is constructed by using seismic velocities from boreholes, reflection/refraction lines, and spatial autocorrelation microtremor surveys. This model is further refined and the seismic attenuation is estimated through waveform modeling of weak motions from small local events and strong-ground motion from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Waveforms are calculated to an upper frequency of 1 Hz using a parallelized finite-difference code that utilizes two regions with a factor of 3 difference in grid spacing to reduce memory requirements. Cenozoic basins trap and strongly amplify ground motions. This effect is particularly strong in the Evergreen Basin on the northeastern side of the Santa Clara Valley, where the steeply dipping Silver Creek fault forms the southwestern boundary of the basin. In comparison, the Cupertino Basin on the southwestern side of the valley has a more moderate response, which is attributed to a greater age and velocity of the Cenozoic fill. Surface waves play a major role in the ground motion of sedimentary basins, and they are seen to strongly develop along the western margins of the Santa Clara Valley for our simulation of the Loma Prieta earthquake.

Sustainability of water-supply at military installations, Kabul Basin, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Thomas J.; Chornack, Michael P.; Verstraeten, Ingrid M.; Linkov, Igor

2014-01-01

The Kabul Basin, including the city of Kabul, Afghanistan, is host to several military installations of Afghanistan, the United States, and other nations that depend on groundwater resources for water supply. These installations are within or close to the city of Kabul. Groundwater also is the potable supply for the approximately four million residents of Kabul. The sustainability of water resources in the Kabul Basin is a concern to military operations, and Afghan water-resource managers, owing to increased water demands from a growing population and potential mining activities. This study illustrates the use of chemical and isotopic analysis, groundwater flow modeling, and hydrogeologic investigations to assess the sustainability of groundwater resources in the Kabul Basin.Water supplies for military installations in the southern Kabul Basin were found to be subject to sustainability concerns, such as the potential drying of shallow-water supply wells as a result of declining water levels. Model simulations indicate that new withdrawals from deep aquifers may have less of an impact on surrounding community water supply wells than increased withdrawals from near- surface aquifers. Higher rates of recharge in the northern Kabul Basin indicate that military installations in that part of the basin may have fewer issues with long-term water sustainability. Simulations of groundwater withdrawals may be used to evaluate different withdrawal scenarios in an effort to manage water resources in a sustainable manner in the Kabul Basin.

Informing a hydrological model of the Ogooué with multi-mission remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittel, Cecile; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Nielsen, Karina; Tøttrup, Christian

2017-04-01

Knowledge on hydrological regimes of river basins is crucial for water management. However, data requirements often limit the applicability of hydrological models in basins with scarce in-situ data. Remote sensing provides a unique possibility to acquire information on hydrological variables in these basins. This study explores how multi-mission remote sensing data can inform a hydrological model. The Ogooué basin in Gabon is used as study area. No previous modelling efforts have been conducted for the basin and only historical flow and precipitation observations are available. Publicly available remote sensing observations are used to parametrize, force, calibrate and validate a hydrological model of the Ogooué. The modelling framework used in the study, is a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on the Budyko framework coupled to a Muskingum routing scheme. Precipitation is a crucial driver of the land-surface water balance, therefore two satellite-based rainfall estimates, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) product 3B42 version 7 and Famine Early Warning System - Rainfall Estimate (FEWS-RFE), are compared. The comparison shows good seasonal and spatial agreement between the products; however, TRMM consistently predicts significantly more precipitation: 1726 mm on average per year against 1556 mm for FEWS-RFE. Best modeling results are obtained with the TRMM precipitation forcing. Model calibration combines historical in-situ flow observations and GRACE total water storage observations using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) mascon solution in a multi-objective approach. The two models are calibrated using flow duration curves and climatology benchmarks to overcome the lack of simultaneity between simulated and observed discharge. The objectives are aggregated into a global objective function, and the models are calibrated using the Shuffled Complex Evolution Algorithm. Water height observations from drifting orbit altimetry missions are extracted along the river line, using a detailed water mask based on Sentinel-1 SAR imagery. 1399 single CryoSat-2 altimetry observations and 48 ICESat observations are acquired. Additionally, water heights have been measured by the repeat-orbit satellite missions Envisat and Jason-2 at 12 virtual stations along the river. The four missions show generally good agreement in terms of mean annual water height amplitudes. The altimetry observations are used to validate the hydrological model of the Ogooué River. By combining hydrological modelling and remote sensing, new information on an otherwise unstudied basin is obtained. The study shows the potential of using remote sensing observations to parameterize, force, calibrate and validate models of poorly gauged river basins. Specifically, the study shows how Sentinel-1 SAR imagery supports the extraction of satellite altimetry data over rivers. The model can be used to assess climate change scenarios, evaluate hydraulic infrastructure development projects and predict the impact of irrigation diversions.

Assessment of circulation and inter-basin transport in the Salish Sea including Johnstone Strait and Discovery Islands pathways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khangaonkar, Tarang; Long, Wen; Xu, Wenwei

The Salish Sea consisting of Puget Sound and Georgia Basin in U.S and Canadian waters has been the subject of several independent data collection and modeling studies. However, these interconnected basins and their hydrodynamic interactions have not received attention as a contiguous unit. The Strait of Juan de Fuca is the primary pathway through which Pacific Ocean water enters the Salish Sea but the role played by Johnstone Strait and the complex channels northeast of Vancouver Island, connecting the Salish Sea and the Pacific Ocean, on overall Salish Sea circulation has not been characterized. In this paper we present amore » modeling-based assessment of the two-layer circulation and transport through the multiple interconnected sub-basins within the Salish Sea including the effect of exchange via Johnstone Strait and Discovery Islands. The Salish Sea Model previously developed using the finite volume community ocean model (FVCOM) was expanded over the continental shelf for this assessment encircling Vancouver Island, including Discovery Islands, Johnstone Strait, Broughton Archipelago and the associated waterways. A computational technique was developed to allow summation of volume fluxes across arbitrary transects through unstructured finite volume cells. Tidally averaged volume fluxes were computed at multiple transects. The results were used to validate the classic model of Circulation in Embracing Sills for Puget Sound and to provide quantitative estimates of the lateral distribution of tidally averaged transport through the system. Sensitivity tests with and without exchanges through Johnstone Strait demonstrate that it is a pathway for Georgia Basin runoff and Fraser River water to exit the Salish Sea and for Pacific Ocean inflow. However the relative impact of this exchange on circulation and flushing in Puget Sound Basin is small.« less

IAS Mesoscale Surface Circulation Observed Through Satellite Altimetry and its Influence in a Small Scale, Coastal Domain, Studied with a ROMS Model of the Cariaco Basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvera-Azcarate, A.; Barth, A.; Virmani, J. I.; Weisberg, R. H.

2007-05-01

The Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) surface circulation is characterized by large scale currents. The Caribbean current, which originates in the Lesser Antilles, travels westwards through the Caribbean Sea and eastern Mexico and passes through the Gulf of Mexico to finally form the Gulf Stream. This complex system of currents is also characterized by a high mesoscale variability, such as eddies and meanders. The objectives of this work are twofold: first, the multi-scale surface circulation of the IAS is described using satellite altimetry. The topographic influence of the different basins forming the IAS, the characteristic time and spatial scales, and the time variability of the surface circulation will be addressed. The second objective is to analyze the influence of this large scale circulation on a small scale coastal domain with a ROMS-based model of the Cariaco basin (Venezuela). Cariaco is a deep (1400 m), semi-enclosed basin connected to the open ocean by two shallow channels (Tortuga and Centinela Channels). Its connection with the open sea, and therefore the ventilation of the basin, occurs in the surface layers. The Cariaco ROMS model will be used to study the exchanges of mass, heat and salt through the channels. A 1/60 degree ROMS model nested in the global 1/12 degree HYCOM model from the Naval Research Laboratory will be used for this study. In addition, a series of observations (satellite altimetry and in situ temperature, salinity and velocity data), will be used to assess the influence of the Caribbean circulation on the basin.

Crustal structure of the Boreas Basin formed at ultraslow spreading Knipovich Ridge - Northern North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermann, T.; Jokat, W.

2012-04-01

The Boreas Basin is located in Norwegian Greenland Sea bordered by the Greenland Fracture Zone in the south and the Hovgard Ridge in the north, respectively. In the east it adjoins the ultraslow mid-ocean Knipovich Ridge. Previous seismic reflection studies in the Boreas Basin have shown that the basement topography has a roughness, which is typical for ultraslow spreading ridges. This observation supports assumptions that the basin was formed at ultraslow spreading rates during its entire geological history. However, the detailed crustal structure remained unresolved. In summer 2009 new seismic refraction data were acquired in the Boreas Basin during the expedition ARK-XXIV/3 with the research vessel Polarstern. The deep seismic sounding line has a length of 340 km. Forward modelling of the data of 18 ocean bottom seismometers deployed along the NW-SE trending profile reveal an unusual 3.2 km thin oceanic crust. The crustal model is further constrained by S-wave and 2D gravity modelling. The P-wave velocity model shows a layered oceanic crust without oceanic layer 3 and with velocities less than 6.3 km/s except beneath a nearly 2000 m high seamount. Beneath the seamount velocities of up to 6.7 km/s were observed. The mantle velocities range between 7.5 km/s in the uppermost mantle and 8.0 km/s in almost 15 km depth. A serpentinisation of approximately 13% in the uppermost mantle decreasing downwards can explain the low mantle velocities. In summary, the transect confirms earlier models that the entire Boreas Basin was formed at ultraslow spreading rates. Indications for this are the basement roughness and the overall thin oceanic crust. Both observations are typical for ultraslow spreading systems.

Chukchi Borderland | Crustal Complex of the Amerasia Basin, Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilhan, I.; Coakley, B.; Houseknecht, D. W.

2017-12-01

In the Arctic Ocean, Chukchi Borderland separates the North Chukchi shelf and Toll deep basins to the west and Canada deep basin to the east. Existing plate reconstructions have attempted to restore this north-striking, fragments of the continental crust to all margins of the Amerasia Basin based on sparse geologic and geophysical measurements. Regional multi-channel seismic reflection and potential field geophysics, and geologic data indicate it is a high standing continental block, requiring special accommodation to create a restorable model of the formation of the Amerasia Basin. The Borderland is composed of the Chukchi Plateau, Northwind Basin, and Northwind Ridge divided by mostly north striking normal faults. These offset the basement and bound a sequence of syn-tectonic sediments. Equivalent strata are, locally, uplifted, deformed and eroded. Seaward dipping reflectors (SDRs) are observed in the juncture between the North Chukchi, Toll basins, and southern Chukchi Plateau underlying a regional angular unconformity. This reveals that this rifted margin was associated with volcanism. An inferred condensed section, which is believed to be Hauterivian-Aptian in age, synchronous with the composite pebble shale and gamma-ray zone of the Alaska North Slope forms the basal sediments in the North Chukchi Basin. Approximately 15 km of post-rift strata onlap the condensed section, SDRs and, in part, the wedge sequence on the Chukchi Plateau from west to east, thinning to the north. These post-Aptian sediments imply that the rifted margin subsided no later than the earliest Cretaceous, providing a plausible time constraint for the inferred pre-Cretaceous rifting in this region. The recognition of SDRs and Hauterivian—Aptian condensed section, and continuity of the Early—Late Cretaceous post-rift strata along the margins of the Borderland, strike variations of the normal faults, absence of observable deformation along the Northwind Escarpment substantially constrain tectonic models proposed for tectonic development of the Amerasia Basin. Models that require significant relative motion between the Chukchi Shelf and Borderland since the Early Cretaceous are precluded by these observations.

Subglacial sedimentary basin characterization of Wilkes Land, East Antarctica via applied aerogeophysical inverse methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, B. C.; Gooch, B. T.; Richter, T.; Young, D. A.; Blankenship, D. D.; Aitken, A.; Siegert, M. J.

2013-12-01

Topography, sediment distribution and heat flux are all key boundary conditions governing the stability of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS). Recent scientific scrutiny has been focused on several large, deep, interior EAIS basins including the submarine basal topography characterizing the Aurora Subglacial Basin (ASB). Numerical ice sheet models require accurate deformable sediment distribution and lithologic character constraints to estimate overall flow velocities and potential instability. To date, such estimates across the ASB have been derived from low-resolution satellite data or historic aerogeophysical surveys conducted prior to the advent of GPS. These rough basal condition estimates have led to poorly-constrained ice sheet stability models for this remote 200,000 sq km expanse of the ASB. Here we present a significantly improved quantitative model characterizing the subglacial lithology and sediment in the ASB region. The product of comprehensive ICECAP (2008-2013) aerogeophysical data processing, this sedimentary basin model details the expanse and thickness of probable Wilkes Land subglacial sedimentary deposits and density contrast boundaries indicative of distinct subglacial lithologic units. As part of the process, BEDMAP2 subglacial topographic results were improved through the additional incorporation of ice-penetrating radar data collected during ICECAP field seasons 2010-2013. Detailed potential field data pre-processing was completed as well as a comprehensive evaluation of crustal density contrasts based on the gravity power spectrum, a subsequent high pass data filter was also applied to remove longer crustal wavelengths from the gravity dataset prior to inversion. Gridded BEDMAP2+ ice and bed radar surfaces were then utilized to establish bounding density models for the 3D gravity inversion process to yield probable sedimentary basin anomalies. Gravity inversion results were iteratively evaluated against radar along-track RMS deviation and gravity and magnetic depth to basement results. This geophysical data processing methodology provides a substantial improvement over prior Wilkes Land sedimentary basin estimates yielding a higher resolution model based upon iteration of several aerogeophysical datasets concurrently. This more detailed subglacial sedimentary basin model for Wilkes Land, East Antarctica will not only contribute to vast improvements on EAIS ice sheet model constraints, but will also provide significant quantifiable controls for subglacial hydrologic and geothermal flux estimates that are also sizable contributors to the cold-based, deep interior basal ice dynamics dominant in the Wilkes Land region.

Estimation of Phosphorus Emissions in the Upper Iguazu Basin (brazil) Using GIS and the More Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acosta Porras, E. A.; Kishi, R. T.; Fuchs, S.; Hilgert, S.

2016-06-01

Pollution emissions into the drainage basin have direct impact on surface water quality. These emissions result from human activities that turn into pollution loads when they reach the water bodies, as point or diffuse sources. Their pollution potential depends on the characteristics and quantity of the transported materials. The estimation of pollution loads can assist decision-making in basin management. Knowledge about the potential pollution sources allows for a prioritization of pollution control policies to achieve the desired water quality. Consequently, it helps avoiding problems such as eutrophication of water bodies. The focus of the research described in this study is related to phosphorus emissions into river basins. The study area is the upper Iguazu basin that lies in the northeast region of the State of Paraná, Brazil, covering about 2,965 km2 and around 4 million inhabitants live concentrated on just 16% of its area. The MoRE (Modeling of Regionalized Emissions) model was used to estimate phosphorus emissions. MoRE is a model that uses empirical approaches to model processes in analytical units, capable of using spatially distributed parameters, covering both, emissions from point sources as well as non-point sources. In order to model the processes, the basin was divided into 152 analytical units with an average size of 20 km2. Available data was organized in a GIS environment. Using e.g. layers of precipitation, the Digital Terrain Model from a 1:10000 scale map as well as soils and land cover, which were derived from remote sensing imagery. Further data is used, such as point pollution discharges and statistical socio-economic data. The model shows that one of the main pollution sources in the upper Iguazu basin is the domestic sewage that enters the river as point source (effluents of treatment stations) and/or as diffuse pollution, caused by failures of sanitary sewer systems or clandestine sewer discharges, accounting for about 56% of the emissions. Second significant shares of emissions come from direct runoff or groundwater, being responsible for 32% of the total emissions. Finally, agricultural erosion and industry pathways represent 12% of emissions. This study shows that MoRE is capable of producing valid emission calculation on a relatively reduced input data basis.

Effects of Long-Period Ground Motion on Distant Basins: The 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and Comparison with Japanese Cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koketsu, K.; Ikegami, Y.; Kimura, T.; Miyake, H.

2006-12-01

Large earthquakes at shallow depths can excite long-period ground motions affecting large-scale structures in distant sedimentary basins. For example, the 1985 Michoacan, Mexico, earthquake caused 20,000 fatalities in Mexico City at an epicentral distance of 400 km, and the 2003 Tokachi-oki, Japan, earthquake damaged oil tanks in the Yufutsu basin 250 km away (Koketsu et al., 2005). Similar long-range effects were also observed during the 2004 off Kii-peninsula earthquake (Miyake and Koketsu, 2005). In order to examine whether the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the Los Angeles (LA) basin are in such a case or not, we simulate long- period ground motions in almost whole California caused by the earthquake using the finite element method (FEM) with a voxel mesh (Koketsu et al., 2004). The LA basin is located at a distance of about 600 km from the source region of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The 3-D heterogeneous velocity structure model for the ground motion simulation is constructed based on the SCEC Unified Velocity Model for southern California and USGS Bay Area Velocity Model for northern California. The source model of the earthquake is constructed according to Wald et al. (1993). Since we use a mesh with intervals of 500m, the voxel FEM can compute seismic waves with frequencies lower than 0.2 Hz. Although ground motions in the south of the source region are smaller than those in the north because of the rupture directivity effect, we can see fairly developed long- period ground motions in the LA basin in the preliminary result of Kimura et al. (2006). However, we obtained only 8cm/s and 25km/s for PGV and peak velocity response spectrum in the LA basin. We modeled the velocity structure up to a depth of only 20km neglecting the Moho reflections, and we did not include layers with Vs smaller than 1.0 km/s. In this study, we include deeper parts and use a more accurate velocity structure model with low-velocity sediments of Vs smaller than 1.0 km/s.

A framework for identifying water management typologies for agent based modeling of water resources and its application in the Boise River Basin, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, K. E.; Flores, A. N.; Hillis, V.; Moroney, J.; Schneider, J.

2017-12-01

Modeling the management of water resources necessitates incorporation of complex social and hydrologic dynamics. Simulation of these socio-ecological systems requires characterization of the decision-making process of relevant actors, the mechanisms through which they exert control on the biophysical system, their ability to react and adapt to regional environmental conditions, and the plausible behaviors in response to changes in those conditions. Agent based models (ABMs) are a useful tool in simulating these complex adaptive systems because they can dynamically couple hydrological models and the behavior of decision making actors. ABMs can provide a flexible, integrated framework that can represent multi-scale interactions, and the heterogeneity of information networks and sources. However, the variability in behavior of water management actors across systems makes characterizing agent behaviors and relationships challenging. Agent typologies, or agent functional types (AFTs), group together individuals and/or agencies with similar functional roles, management objectives, and decision-making strategies. AFTs have been used to represent archetypal land managers in the agricultural and forestry sectors in large-scale socio-economic system models. A similar typology of water actors could simplify the representation of water management across river basins, and increase transferability and scaling of resulting ABMs. Here, we present a framework for identifying and classifying major water actors and show how we will link an ABM of water management to a regional hydrologic model in a western river basin. The Boise River Basin in southwest Idaho is an interesting setting to apply our AFT framework because of the diverse stakeholders and associated management objectives which include managing urban growth pressures and water supply in the face of climate change. Precipitation in the upper basin supplies 90% of the surface water used in the basin, thus managers of the reservoir system (located in the upper basin) must balance flood control for the metropolitan area with water supply for downstream agricultural and hydropower use. Identifying dominant water management typologies that include state and federal agencies will increase the transferability of water management ABMs in the western US.

SimBasin: A serious gaming framework for integrated and cooperative decision-making in water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angarita, H.; Craven, J.; Caggiano, F.; Corzo, G.

2016-12-01

An Integrated approach involving extensive stakeholder dialogue is widely advocated in sustainable water management. However, it requires a social learning process in which scientist and stakeholders become aware of the relationship between their own frames of reference and those of others, differences can be dealt with constructively, and shared ideas can be used to facilitate cooperation. Key obstacles in this process are heritage systems, attitudes and processes, factually wrong, incomplete or unshared mental models, and lack of science-policy dialogue (Pahl-Wostl et al., 2005) To overcome these barriers, a space is required which is free of heritage systems, where mental models can be safely and easily compared and corrected, and where scientists and policy-makers can come together. A "serious game" can serve as such a space - Serious games are games or simulations used to achieve an organizational or educational goal, and such games have already been used to facilitate stakeholder cooperation in the water management sector (Rusca et al., 2005). As well as bringing stakeholders together, they can be an accessible interface between scientific models and non-experts. Here we present SimBasin, a multiplayer serious game framework and development engine. The engine allows to easily create a simulated multiplayer basin management game using WEAP water resources modelling software (SEI, 1992-2015), to facilitate the communication of the complex, long term and wide range relationships between hydrologic, climate, and human systems present in river basins, and enable dialogue between policy-makers and scientists. Different games have been created using the Sim-Basin engine and used in various contexts. Here are discussed experiences with stakeholders at a national forum in Bogotá, flood risk management agencies in the lower Magdalena River Basin in Colombia and with water professionals in Bangkok. The experience shows that the game is a useful tool for enabling dialogue and provides interesting insights into the way computer models and stakeholders' mental models can interact with and enrich each other. SimBasin software and supporting materials are freely available online for download at http://simbasin.hilab.nl.

Reconstructing the 2015 Flash Flood event of Salgar Colombia, The Case of a Poor Gauged Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasquez, N.; Zapata, E.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Velez, J. I.

2017-12-01

Flash floods events associated with severe precipitation events are highly destructive, often resulting in significant human and economic losses. Due to their nature, flash floods trend to occur in medium to small basins located within complex high mountainous regions. In the Colombian Andean region these basins are very common, with the aggravating factor that the vulnerability is considerably high as some important human settlements are located within these basins, frequently occupating flood plains and other flash-flood prone areas. During the dawn of May 18 of 2015 two severe rainfall events generated a flash flood event in the municipality ofSalgar, La Liboriana basin, locatedin the northwestern Colombian Andes, resulting in more than 100 human casualties and significant economic losses. The present work is a reconstruction of the hydrological processes that took place before and during the Liboriana flash flood event, analyzed as a case of poorly gauged basin.The event conditions where recreated based on radar retrievals and a hydrological distributed model, linked with a proposed 1D hydraulic model and simple shallow landslide model. Results suggest that the flash flood event was caused by the occurrence of two successive severe convective events over the same basin, with an important modulation associated with soil characteristics and water storage.Despite of its simplicity, the proposed hydraulic model achieves a good representation of the flooded area during the event, with limitations due to the adopted spatial scale (12.7 meters, from ALOS PALSAR images). Observed landslides were obtained from satellite images; for this case the model simulates skillfully the landslide occurrence regions with small differences in the exact locations.To understand this case, radar data shows to be key due to specific convective cores location and rainfall intensity estimation.In mountainous regions, there exists a significant number of settlements with similar vulnerability and with the same gauging conditions, the use of low-cost modelling strategy could represent a good risk management tool in these regions with low planning capabilities.

Quantifying the thermal evolution of early passive margins formation and its consequences on the structure of passive margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bousquet, Romain; Nalpas, Thierry

2017-04-01

Many large-scale dynamic processes, from continental rifting to plate subduction, are intimately linked to metamorphic reactions. This close relation between geodynamic processes and metamorphic reactions is, in spite of appearances, yet poorly understood. For example, during extension processes, rocks will be exposed to important temperature, pressures and stress changes. Meanwhile less attention has been paid to other important aspects of the metamorphic processes. When reacting rocks expand and contract, density and volume changes will set up in the surrounding material. While several tectonic models are proposed to explain the formation of extensive basins and passive margins ( simple shear detachment mantle exhumation .... ) a single thermal model (McKenzie, 1978), as a kind of dogma, is used to understanding and modeling the formation and evolution of sedimentary basins. The study of the thermal evolution, coupled with other tectonic models, and its consequences have never been studied in detail, although the differences may be significant. And it is clear that the petrological changes associated with changes in temperature conditions, influence changes reliefs. Constrained by the new field data of north Pyrenean basins on thermal evolution of pre-rift and syn-rift sediments, we explore the petrological changes associated to different thermal evolution and the consequences on the subsidence of the basins. We will also present numerical models quantifying mineralogical and physical changes inside the whole lithosphere during rifting processes. In the light of these models, we discuss the consequences of different thermal evolution on the subsidence processes as well as on gravimetry and seismic velocities signature of passive margins. We are able to distinguish two types of margins according to their thermal evolution: - An Alpine-type basin in which the temperature rise is 50 to 100 Ma older than the tectonic extension, leading to the "cold" opening of the ocean. - A Pyrenean type basin in which temperature changes are synchronous with basin formation, leading to a crustal boudignage and to the formation of a "anomalous" geophysical layer at the OCT

Hydroeconomic modeling of sustainable groundwater management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacEwan, Duncan; Cayar, Mesut; Taghavi, Ali; Mitchell, David; Hatchett, Steve; Howitt, Richard

2017-03-01

In 2014, California passed legislation requiring the sustainable management of critically overdrafted groundwater basins, located primarily in the Central Valley agricultural region. Hydroeconomic modeling of the agricultural economy, groundwater, and surface water systems is critically important to simulate potential transition paths to sustainable management of the basins. The requirement for sustainable groundwater use by 2040 is mandated for many overdrafted groundwater basins that are decoupled from environmental and river flow effects. We argue that, for such cases, a modeling approach that integrates a biophysical response function from a hydrologic model into an economic model of groundwater use is preferable to embedding an economic response function in a complex hydrologic model as is more commonly done. Using this preferred approach, we develop a dynamic hydroeconomic model for the Kings and Tulare Lake subbasins of California and evaluate three groundwater management institutions—open access, perfect foresight, and managed pumping. We quantify the costs and benefits of sustainable groundwater management, including energy pumping savings, drought reserve values, and avoided capital costs. Our analysis finds that, for basins that are severely depleted, losses in crop net revenue are offset by the benefits of energy savings, drought reserve value, and avoided capital costs. This finding provides an empirical counterexample to the Gisser and Sanchez Effect.

Simulation of Streamflow and Selected Water-Quality Constituents through a Model of the Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York - A Guide to Model Application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.

2008-01-01

A computer model of hydrologic and water-quality processes of the Onondaga Lake basin in Onondaga County, N.Y., was developed during 2003-07 to assist water-resources managers in making basin-wide management decisions that could affect peak flows and the water quality of tributaries to Onondaga Lake. The model was developed with the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and was designed to allow simulation of proposed or hypothetical land-use changes, best-management practices (BMPs), and instream stormwater-detention basins such that their effects on flows and loads of suspended sediment, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, ammonia, organic nitrogen, and nitrate could be analyzed. Extreme weather conditions, such as intense storms and prolonged droughts, can be simulated through manipulation of the precipitation record. Model results obtained from different scenarios can then be compared and analyzed through an interactive computer program known as Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios for Watersheds (GenScn). Background information on HSPF and GenScn is presented to familiarize the user with these two programs. Step-by-step examples are provided on (1) the creation of land-use, BMP, and stormflow-detention scenarios for simulation by the HSPF model, and (2) the analysis of simulation results through GenScn.

Late-stage development of the Bryant Canyon turbidite pathway on the Louisiana continental slope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Twichell, David C.; Nelson, Hans; Damuth, John E.

2000-01-01

GLORIA sidescan imagery, multibeam bathymetry, seismic profiles, and piston cores (3–5 m penetration) reveal the near-surface geology of the Bryant Canyon turbidite pathway on the continental margin of Louisiana. This pathway extends from the continental shelf edge, across the continental slope, to a deep-sea fan on the continental rise. The pathway is narrow (<2 km) where it crosses shallow salt deposits. Turbidites have been sampled from these narrow segments, and radiocarbon dates indicate that some of them accumulated as recently as 10,150 yr B.P. The pathway broadens however, where it crosses mini-basins whose floors are covered largely by muddy mass-transport deposits and coarse silt turbidites. Mass-transport deposits in the upper 4.7 m of cores from the floors of mini-basins accumulated 18,140-3,400 yr. BP. Seismic profiles show that the mass-transport deposits in some of the mini-basins are as much as 225 milliseconds thick and that turbidites in the basin floor are buried by these deposits. Salt movement has had a major impact on this pathway, and its thalweg no longer has a continuous down-slope gradient. Some mini-basin floors along the pathway are now more than 500 m deeper than their basin’s spill point. We propose a 6-stage conceptual model to explain our observations for the evolution of a mini-basin along this turbidite pathway. In this model, an active channel feeds sand to a mini-basin (Stabe B). Once the mini-basin is filled, the sand deposit is entrenched by a bypass channel (Stage C). When the turbidite system shuts off, salt migration oversteepens the mini-basin walls (Stage D) which collapse and create a layer of mass-transport deposits on the mini-basin floor (Stage E). The depositional succession is capped by a layer of highstand hemipelagic drape (Stage F). The Bryant Canyon turbidite pathway provides a recent example of a large turbidite pathway in the Gulf of Mexico that crosses an area of active salt tectonics thus providing a conceptual model for older systems in similar settings. In Bryant Canyon, thick turbidite sands presumably are found in mini-basins however, they are sealed by thick, fine-grained, mass-transport deposits which terminate mini-basin turbidite deposition cycles. The importance of mass-transport deposits in basins along this turbidite pathway is in startling contrast to the Trinity-Brazos pathway whose shallow subsurface expression is virtually free of mass-transport deposits and has undergone minimal deformation by salt movement.

The evolution of impact basins - Viscous relaxation of topographic relief. [for lunar surface modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, S. C.; Comer, R. P.; Head, J. W.

1982-01-01

A topographic profile of the young large lunar basin, Orientale, is presented in order to examine the effects of viscous relaxation on basin topography. Analytical models for viscous flow are considered, showing a wavelength-dependence of time constants for viscous decay on the decrease in viscosity with depth and on the extent of the isostatic compensation of the initial topography. Lunar rheological models which are developed include a half-space model for uniform Newtonian viscosity, density, and gravitational acceleration, a layer over inviscid half space model with material inviscid over geological time scales, and a layer with isostatic compensation where a uniformly viscous layer overlies an inviscid half space of higher density. Greater roughness is concluded, and has been observed, on the moon's dark side due to continued lower temperatures since the time of heavy bombardment.

Integration of sewer system maps in topographically based sub-basin delineation in suburban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jankowfsky, Sonja; Branger, Flora; Braud, Isabelle; Rodriguez, Fabrice

2010-05-01

Due to the increase of urbanization, suburban areas experience a fast change in land use. The impact of such modifications on the watershed hydrological cycle must be quantified. To achieve this goal, distributed hydrological models offer the possibility to take into account land use change, and more particularly to consider urbanized areas and anthropogenic features such as roads or ditches and their impact on the hydrological cycle. A detailed definition of the hydrographical drainage network and a corresponding delineation of sub-basins is therefore necessary as input to distributed models. Sub-basins in natural catchments are usually delineated using standard GIS based terrain analysis. The drainage network in urbanised watersheds is often modified, due to sewer systems, ditches, retention basins, etc.. Therefore, its delineation is not only determined by topography. The simple application of terrain analysis algorithms to delineate sub-basins in suburban areas can consequently lead to erroneous sub-basin borders. This study presents an improved approach for sub-basin delineation in suburban areas. It applies to small catchments connected to a sewage plant, located outside the catchment boundary. The approach assumes that subsurface flow follows topography. The method requires a digital elevation model (DEM), maps of land use, cadastre, sewer system and the location of measurement stations and retention basins. Firstly, the topographic catchment border must be defined for the concerning flow measurement station. Standard GIS based algorithms, like the d8-flow direction algorithm (O'Callaghan and Mark, 1984) can be applied using a high resolution DEM. Secondly, the artificial catchment outlets have to be determined. Each catchment has one natural outlet - the measurement station on the river- but it can have several artificial outlets towards a sewage station. Once the outlets are determined, a first approximation of the "theoretical maximal contributing area" can be made. It encompasses the whole connected sewer system and the topographic catchment boundary. The area of interest is therefore defined. The next step is the determination of the extended drainage network, consisting of the natural river, ditches, combined and separated sewer systems and retention basins. This requires a detailed analysis of sewer system data, field work (mapping of ditches and inlets into the natural river). Contacts with local authorities are also required to keep up-to-date about recent changes. Pure wastewater and drinking water pipes are not integrated in the drainage network. In order to have a unique drainage network for the model, choices might have to be made in case of several coexisting drainage pipes. The urban sub-basins are then delineated with the help of a cadastral map (Rodriguez et al., 2003) or an aerial photography. Each cadastral unit is connected to the closest drainage pipe, following the principle of proximity and gravity. The assembly of all cadastral units connected to one network reach represents one urban sub-basin. The sub-basins in the rural part are calculated using the d8 flow direction and watershed delineation algorithm with "stream burning" (Hutchinson, 1989). One sub-basin is delineated for each reach of the extended drainage network. Some manual corrections of the calculated sub-basins are necessary. Finally, the urban and rural sub-basins are merged by subtraction of the urban area from the rural area and subsequent union of both maps. This method was applied to the Chaudanne catchment, a sub-basin of the Yzeron catchment (ca. 4 km2) in the suburban region of Lyon city, France. The method leads to a 30 % extended catchment area, as compared to the topographic catchment area. For each river inlet the sub-basin area could be determined, as well as for each retention basin. This information can be directly used for the dimensioning of retention basins, pipe diameters, etc.

Slab roll-back and trench retreat as controlling factor for basin subsidence in southern Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandes, Christian; Winsemann, Jutta

2015-04-01

Slab roll-back and trench retreat are important factors for basin subsidence, magma generation and volcanism in arc-trench systems. Based on the sedimentary and tectonic record of the southern Central American island-arc we conclude that repeated phases of slab roll-back and trench retreats occurred the arc-trench system since the Late Cretaceous. These trench retreats were most probably related to the subduction of oceanic plateaus and seamounts and effected both the fore-arc and back-arc evolution. We used numerical basin modelling techniques to analyse the burial history of fore-arc and back-arc basins in Central America and combined the results with field data of the sedimentological evolution of the basin-fills. From the basin models, geohistory curves were extracted for the fore-arc and back-arc basins to derive the subsidence evolution. The Sandino Fore-arc Basin is characterized by low subsidence during the first 40 Myr. Since the Late Cretaceous the basin has a linear moderate subsidence with a phase of accelerated subsidence in the Oligocene. In the North and South Limón Back-arc Basin, subsidence started at approximately the same time as in the Sandino Fore-arc Basin. The North and South Limón Basins show a linear subsidence trend in the Paleocene and Eocene. Evidence for trench retreats is given by pulses of uplift in the outer-arc area, followed by subsidence in both the fore-arc and back-arc basins. The first slab roll-back probably occurred during the Early Paleocene. This is indicated by the collapse of carbonate platforms, and the re-deposition of large carbonate blocks into deep-water turbidites. A new pulse of uplift or decreased subsidence, respectively during the Late Eocene is attributed to subduction of rough crust. A subsequent slab detachment and the establishment of a new subduction zone further westward was described by Walther et al. (2000). Strong uplift affected the entire fore-arc area, which led to the deposition of very coarse-grained deepwater channel-levee complexes in the Sandino Fore-arc Basin. The channel-fills are rich in reworked shallow-water carbonates that points to strong uplift of the inner fore-arc. A subsequent trench retreat is indicated by an increased subsidence during the Early Oligocene in the Sandino Fore-arc Basin and the collapse of the Barra Honda carbonate platform in North Costa Rica. Another trench retreat might have occurred in Miocene times (Cailleau and Oncken, 2008). A phase of higher subsidence from 18 to 13 Ma is documented in the geohistory curve of the North Limon Back-arc Basin. After a short pulse of uplift the subsidence increased to approx. 300 m/myr (Brandes et al., 2008). References: Brandes C., Astorga A., Littke R. and Winsemann J. (2008) Basin modelling of the Limón Back-arc Basin (Costa Rica): burial history and temperature evolution of an island-arc related basin system. Basin Research 20, 1, 119-142. Cailleau, B. and Oncken, O. (2008) Past forearc deformation in Nicaragua and coupling at the megathrust interface: Evidence for subduction retreat. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 9, Q07S24, doi:10.1029/2007GC001754. Walther, C.H.E., Flueh, E.R., Ranero, C.R., von Huene, R. and Strauch, W. (2000) Crustal structure across the Pacific margin of Nicaragua: evidence for ophiolithic basement and a shallow mantle sliver. Geophysical Journal International 141, 759-777.

Climate Change Impacts on River Temperature in the Southeastern United States: A Case Study of the Tennessee River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Mao, Y.; Yearsley, J. R.; Nijssen, B.

2016-12-01

In the coming decades, climate change and population growth are expected to affect water and energy supply as well as demand in the southeastern United States. Changes in temperature and precipitation impact river flow and stream temperature with implications for hydropower generation, industrial and municipal water supply, cooling for thermo-electric power plants, agricultural irrigation, ecosystem functions and flood control. At the same time, water and energy demand are expected to change in response to temperature increase, population growth and changing crop water requirements. As part of a multi-institution study of the food-energy-water nexus in the southeastern U.S., we are developing coupled hydrological and stream temperature models that will be linked to water resources, power systems and crop models at a later stage. Here we evaluate the ability of our system to simulate water supply and stream temperature in the Tennessee River Basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model coupled to the River Basin Model (RBM), a 1-D semi-Lagrangian river temperature model, which has recently been expanded with a two-layer reservoir temperature model. Simulations with VIC-RBM were performed for the Tennessee River Basin at 1/8-degree spatial resolution and a temporal resolution of 1 day or less. Reservoir releases were prescribed based on historic operating rules. In future iterations, these releases will be modeled directly by a water resources model that incorporates flood control, and power and agricultural water demands. We compare simulated flows, as well as stream and reservoir temperatures with observed flows and temperatures throughout the basin. In preparation for later stages of the project, we also perform a set of climate change sensitivity experiments to evaluate how changes in climate may impact river and reservoir temperature.

Isostasy-controlled thinning-upward cycles in the Mediterranean?; a comparison with the Zechstein salt giant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van den Belt, Frank J. G.; De Boer, Poppe L.

2014-05-01

The desiccated deep-basin model, originally developed for the Mediterranean salt giant, deviated significantly from existing models and it has never been satisfactorily translated into a general concept. With time, however, Mediterranean models evolved towards moderate basin depths and the view that deposition took place in a flooded basin has gained reputation. These new insights have bridged the gap with general evaporite models and open possibilities of integrating concepts developed for other salt giants into the model. Recent modelling work (Van den Belt & De Boer, 2012) based on the Zechstein salt basin has shown that the thickness and composition of subsequent evaporite cycles can be explained by a model that involves a repetition of a three-stage process of 1) progressive narrowing of an ocean corridor in response to sulphate-platform progradation, resulting in 2) brine concentration and rapid infilling of the basin with halite and potash salts, the load of which causes 3) isostatic creation of accommodation space for the next cycle. Isostatic theory predicts that each cycle has approximately half the thickness of the previous one, e.g. 1.0 > 0.50 > 0.25 > 0.125 followed by a number of (coalesced) smaller cycles with a joint thickness of 0.125. The sequence in the basin centre then adds up to 2, which is two times the original basin depth. For the Zechstein case actual cycle thickness well matches these predicted values with cycle thicknesses of about 1.06 > 0.54 > 0.18 > 0.10 and 0.12. The cycle build-up of the Mediterranean salt giant is less well known, because of limited deep drilling. There are at least two cycles, a thin upper overlying a thick lower unit, but comparison of Zechstein patterns with Mediterranean sections has shown that more cycles may be present. Typical cycle boundaries include K/Mg-salt interbeds in halite units, and halite interbeds in sulphate units. Interestingly, analysis has shown that such indicators in Mediterranean sections indicate that cycles may indeed be stacked according to the 50% thickness rule. Examples are the K-salt halfway up the Sicilian section and the regular halite interbeds in the Upper Evaporite of the Western Mediterranean. In addition, the Lago Mare clays that define the top of the Mediterranean section are reminiscent of the Zechstein claystone cap. If the proposed mechanism indeed applies to the Mediterranean it would point at an initial basin depth of about 600-700 for the Western Mediterranean. Van den Belt & De Boer (2012) Utrecht Studies in Earth Sciences, v. 21, p. 59-65.

Paleogeothermal gradients and timing of oil generation in the Belden Formation, Eagle Basin, northwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nuccio, V.F.; Johnson, S.Y.; Schenk, C.J.

1989-01-01

Paleogeothermal gradients and timing of oil generation for the Lower and Middle Pennsylvanian Belden Formation have been estimated for four locations in the Eagle Basin of northwestern Colorado, by comparing measured vitrinite reflectance with maturity modeling. Two thermal models were made for each location: one assumes a constant paleogeothermal gradient through time while the other is a two-stage model with changing paleogeothermal gradients. The two-stage paleogeothermal gradient scenario is considered more geologically realistic and is used to estimate the timing of oil generation throughout the Eagle basin. From the data and interpretations, one would expect Belden oil to be found in either upper Paleozoic or Mesozoic reservoir rocks. -Authors

A tracer study of the deep water renewal in the European polar seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinze, Ch.; Schlosser, P.; Koltermann, K. P.; Meincke, J.

1990-09-01

A study of the deep water renewal in the European polar seas (Norwegian Sea, Greenland Sea and Eurasian Basin) based on the distribution of tritium ( 3H), 3He, chlorofluoromethane (F-11 = CCL 3F), salinity and potential temperature is presented. Four different versions of a kinematic box model calibrated with the tracer data yield production rates and turnover times due to deep convection for Greenland Sea Deep Water (0.47-0.59 Sv, 27-34 y) and Eurasian Basin Deep Water (0.97-1.07 Sv, 83-92 y). Model calculations with different deep advective flow patterns (exchange at equal rates between each of the deep water masses or an internal circuit Eurasian Basin-Greenland Sea-Norwegian Sea-Eurasian Basin) give estimates of the deep horizontal transports, resulting in a turnover time of 13-16 years for Norwegian Sea Deep Water. The total turnover times (convection and deep advection) of the Greenland Sea and the Eurasian Basin are estimated to about 10 and 50 years, respectively. Mean hydrographic characteristics of the source water for Greenland Sea Deep Water and Eurasian Basin Deep Water are estimated from minimization of the deviations between modelled and observed hydrographic deep water values. The fractions of surface waters and intermediate waters making up the deep water of the Greenland Sea are estimated to about 80 and 20%, respectively.

[Spatiotemporal variation characteristics and related affecting factors of actual evapotranspiration in the Hun-Taizi River Basin, Northeast China].

PubMed

Feng, Xue; Cai, Yan-Cong; Guan, De-Xin; Jin, Chang-Jie; Wang, An-Zhi; Wu, Jia-Bing; Yuan, Feng-Hui

2014-10-01

Based on the meteorological and hydrological data from 1970 to 2006, the advection-aridity (AA) model with calibrated parameters was used to calculate evapotranspiration in the Hun-Taizi River Basin in Northeast China. The original parameter of the AA model was tuned according to the water balance method and then four subbasins were selected to validate. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of evapotranspiration and related affecting factors were analyzed using the methods of linear trend analysis, moving average, kriging interpolation and sensitivity analysis. The results showed that the empirical parameter value of 0.75 of AA model was suitable for the Hun-Taizi River Basin with an error of 11.4%. In the Hun-Taizi River Basin, the average annual actual evapotranspiration was 347.4 mm, which had a slightly upward trend with a rate of 1.58 mm · (10 a(-1)), but did not change significantly. It also indicated that the annual actual evapotranspiration presented a single-peaked pattern and its peak value occurred in July; the evapotranspiration in summer was higher than in spring and autumn, and it was the smallest in winter. The annual average evapotranspiration showed a decreasing trend from the northwest to the southeast in the Hun-Taizi River Basin from 1970 to 2006 with minor differences. Net radiation was largely responsible for the change of actual evapotranspiration in the Hun-Taizi River Basin.

Multivariate Regression Analysis of Winter Ozone Events in the Uinta Basin of Eastern Utah, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansfield, M. L.

2012-12-01

I report on a regression analysis of a number of variables that are involved in the formation of winter ozone in the Uinta Basin of Eastern Utah. One goal of the analysis is to develop a mathematical model capable of predicting the daily maximum ozone concentration from values of a number of independent variables. The dependent variable is the daily maximum ozone concentration at a particular site in the basin. Independent variables are (1) daily lapse rate, (2) daily "basin temperature" (defined below), (3) snow cover, (4) midday solar zenith angle, (5) monthly oil production, (6) monthly gas production, and (7) the number of days since the beginning of a multi-day inversion event. Daily maximum temperature and daily snow cover data are available at ten or fifteen different sites throughout the basin. The daily lapse rate is defined operationally as the slope of the linear least-squares fit to the temperature-altitude plot, and the "basin temperature" is defined as the value assumed by the same least-squares line at an altitude of 1400 m. A multi-day inversion event is defined as a set of consecutive days for which the lapse rate remains positive. The standard deviation in the accuracy of the model is about 10 ppb. The model has been combined with historical climate and oil & gas production data to estimate historical ozone levels.

Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao-Jun; Zhang, Jian-Yun; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Xie, Yu-Xuan; Zhang, Xu

2018-02-01

A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs) namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22 × 108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25 × 108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

Continuum Model for River Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giacometti, Achille; Maritan, Amos; Banavar, Jayanth R.

1995-07-01

The effects of erosion, avalanching, and random precipitation are captured in a simple stochastic partial differential equation for modeling the evolution of river networks. Our model leads to a self-organized structured landscape and to abstraction and piracy of the smaller tributaries as the evolution proceeds. An algebraic distribution of the average basin areas and a power law relationship between the drainage basin area and the river length are found.

The Slow Moving Threat of Groundwater Salinization: Mechanisms, Costs, and Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauloo, R.; Guo, Z.; Fogg, G. E.

2016-12-01

Population growth, the Green Revolution, and climate uncertainties have accelerated overdraft in groundwater basins worldwide, which in some regions is converting these basins into closed hydrologic systems, where the dominant exits for water are evapotranspiration and pumping. Irrigated agricultural basins are particularly at risk to groundwater salinization, as naturally occurring (i.e., sodium, potassium, chloride) and anthropogenic (i.e., nitrate fertilizers) salts leach back into the water table through the root zone, while a large portion of pumped groundwater leaves the system as it is evapotranspired by crops. Decreasing water quality associated with increases in Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) has been documented in aquifers across the United States in the past half century. This study suggests that the increase in TDS in aquifers can be partially explained by closed basin hydrogeology and rock-water interactions leading to groundwater salinization. This study will present: (1) a report on historical water quality in the Tulare basin, (2) a forward simulation of salt balance in Tulare Basin based on the Department of Water Resources numerical model C2VSim, and a simple mixing model, (3) an economic analysis forecasting the cost of desalination under varying degrees of managed groundwater recharge where the basin is gradually filled, avoiding hydraulic closure.

Early Triassic development of a foreland basin in the Canadian high Arctic: Implications for a Pangean Rim of Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadlari, Thomas; Dewing, Keith; Matthews, William A.; Alonso-Torres, Daniel; Midwinter, Derrick

2018-06-01

Following the amalgamation of Laurasia and Gondwana to form Pangea, some Triassic tectonic models show an encircling arc system called the "Pangean Rim of Fire". Here we show that the stratigraphy and Early Triassic detrital zircon provenance of the Sverdrup Basin in the Canadian Arctic is most consistent with deposition in a retro-arc foreland basin. Late Permian and Early Triassic volcanism was accompanied by relatively high rates of subsidence leading to a starved basin with volcanic input from a magmatic arc to the northwest. The mostly starved basin persisted through the Middle and Late Triassic with nearly continuous input of volcanic ash recorded as bentonites on the northwestern edge of the basin. In the latest Triassic it is interpreted that decreasing subsidence and a significant influx of sand-grade sediment when the arc was exhumed led to filling of the basin at the end of an orogenic cycle. Combined with other hints of Early Triassic arc activity along the western margin of Laurentia we propose that the Pangean Rim of Fire configuration spanned the entire Triassic. This proposed configuration represents the ring of external subduction zones that some models suggest are necessary for the breakup of supercontinents such as Pangea.