Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Tianlei; Guo, Pinwen; Cheng, Jun; Hu, Aixue; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang

2018-03-01

Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

Future changes in regional precipitation simulated by a half-degree coupled climate model: Sensitivity to horizontal resolution

DOE PAGES

Shields, Christine A.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.; Meehl, Gerald A.

2016-06-02

The global fully coupled half-degree Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) was integrated for a suite of climate change ensemble simulations including five historical runs, five Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 [RCP8.5) runs, and a long Pre-Industrial control run. This study focuses on precipitation at regional scales and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution. The half-degree historical CCSM4 simulations are compared to observations, where relevant, and to the standard 1° CCSM4. Both the halfdegree and 1° resolutions are coupled to a nominal 1° ocean. North American and South Asian/Indian monsoon regimes are highlighted because these regimes demonstrate improvements due to highermore » resolution, primarily because of better-resolved topography. Agriculturally sensitive areas are analyzed and include Southwest, Central, and Southeast U.S., Southern Europe, and Australia. Both mean and extreme precipitation is discussed for convective and large-scale precipitation processes. Convective precipitation tends to decrease with increasing resolution and large-scale precipitation tends to increase. Improvements for the half-degree agricultural regions can be found for mean and extreme precipitation in the Southeast U.S., Southern Europe, and Australian regions. Climate change responses differ between the model resolutions for the U.S. Southwest/Central regions and are seasonally dependent in the Southeast and Australian regions. Both resolutions project a clear drying signal across Southern Europe due to increased greenhouse warming. As a result, differences between resolutions tied to the representation of convective and large-scale precipitation play an important role in the character of the climate change and depend on regional influences.« less

Evaluation of hydrologic components of community land model 4 and bias identification

DOE PAGES

Du, Enhao; Vittorio, Alan Di; Collins, William D.

2015-04-01

Runoff and soil moisture are two key components of the global hydrologic cycle that should be validated at local to global scales in Earth System Models (ESMs) used for climate projection. Here, we have evaluated the runoff and surface soil moisture output by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) along with 8 other models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) repository using satellite soil moisture observations and stream gauge corrected runoff products. A series of Community Land Model (CLM) runs forced by reanalysis and coupled model outputs was also performed to identify atmospheric drivers of biases and uncertainties inmore » the CCSM. Results indicate that surface soil moisture simulations tend to be positively biased in high latitude areas by most selected CMIP5 models except CCSM, FGOALS, and BCC, which share similar land surface model code. With the exception of GISS, runoff simulations by all selected CMIP5 models were overestimated in mountain ranges and in most of the Arctic region. In general, positive biases in CCSM soil moisture and runoff due to precipitation input error were offset by negative biases induced by temperature input error. Excluding the impact from atmosphere modeling, the global mean of seasonal surface moisture oscillation was out of phase compared to observations in many years during 1985–2004. The CLM also underestimated runoff in the Amazon, central Africa, and south Asia, where soils all have high clay content. We hypothesize that lack of a macropore flow mechanism is partially responsible for this underestimation. However, runoff was overestimated in the areas covered by volcanic ash soils (i.e., Andisols), which might be associated with poor soil porosity representation in CLM. Finally, our results indicate that CCSM predictability of hydrology could be improved by addressing the compensating errors associated with precipitation and temperature and updating the CLM soil representation.« less

Towards a community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackmon, M.

2003-04-01

The Community Climate System Model, version 2 (CCSM2), was released in June 2002. CCSM2 has several new components and features, which I will discuss briefly. I will also show a few results from a multi-century equilibrium run with this model, emphasizing the improvements over the earlier simulation using the original CSM. A few flaws and inadequacies in CCSM2 have been identified. I will also discuss briefly work underway to improve the model and present results, if available. CCSM2, with improvements, will be the basis for the development of a Community Earth System Model (CESM). The highest priority for expansion of the model involves incorporation of biogeosciences into the coupled model system, with emphasis given to the carbon, nitrogen and iron cycles. The overall goal of the biogeosciences project within CESM is to understand the regulation of planetary energetics, planetary ecology, and planetary metabolism through exchanges of energy, momentum, and materials among atmosphere, land, and ocean, and the response of the climate system through these processes to changes in land cover and land use. In particular, this research addresses how biogeochemical coupling of carbon, nitrogen, and iron cycles affects climate and how human perturbations of these cycles alter climate. To accomplish these goals, the Community Land Model, the land component of CCSM2, is being developed to include river routing, carbon and nitrogen cycles, emissions of mineral aerosols and biogenic volatile organic compounds, dry deposition of various gases, and vegetation dynamics. The carbon and nitrogen cycles are being implemented using parameterizations developed as part of a state-of-the-art ecosystem biogeochemistry model. The primary goal of this research is to provide an accurate net flux of CO2 between the land and the atmosphere so that CESM can be used to study the dynamics of the coupled climate-carbon system. Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds are also based on a state-of-the-art emissions model and depend on plant type, leaf area index, photosynthetically active radiation, and leaf temperature. Dust emissions and deposition are being developed to implement a fully coupled dust cycle in CCSM, including the radiative effects of dust and carbon feedbacks related to fertilization of ocean and terrestrial ecosystems. Dust mobilization depends on surface wind speed, soil moisture, plant cover, and soil texture. Dust dry deposition processes include sedimentation and turbulent mix-out. A major research focus is how natural and human-mediated changes in land cover and ecosystem functions alter surface energy fluxes, the hydrological cycle, and biogeochemical cycles. Human land uses include conversion of natural vegetation to cropland, soil degradation, and urbanization. Climate feedbacks associated with natural changes in land cover are being assessed by developing and implementing a model of natural vegetation dynamics for use with the Community Land Model. Development of a marine ecosystem model is also underway. The ecosystem model is based on the global, mixed-layer marine ecosystem model of Moore et al., which includes parameterizations for such things as iron limitation and scavenging, zooplankton grazing, nitrogen fixation, calcification, and ballast-based remineralization. A series of experiments is being planned to assess the coupling of the ecology to the biogeochemistry, to adequately tune some of the model parameters that are poorly constrained by data, to explore new parameterizations and processes (e.g., riverine and atmospheric inputs of nutrients), and to conduct uncoupled application studies (e.g., deliberate carbon sequestration, retrospective historical simulations, iron-dust deposition response). Longer term plans include investigating biogeochemical processes in the coastal zone and how to incorporate these processes into a global ocean model, either through subgrid-scale parameterizations or model nesting. A Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model(WACCM) is being developed. The vertical extent of the model is 150 km at present, but extension to 500 km is eventually expected. Interactive chemistry is being incorporated. This model will be used as the atmospheric component of CESM for some experiments. One expected application is the study of solar variability and its impact on climate variability in the troposphere and at the atmosphere, ocean, land interface. Preliminary results using some of these model components will be shown. A timeline for development and use of the models will be given.

Military and Veteran Student Achievement in Postsecondary Education: A Structural Equation Model Using the Community College Survey of Men (CCSM)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De LaGarza, Thomas R.; Manuel, Marcus A.; Wood, J. Luke; Harris, Frank, III

2016-01-01

Few quantitative studies exist on veteran success in postsecondary education, and existing qualitative research has also not accurately identified factors related to veteran achievement or pathways to success in postsecondary education. In this article, the Community College Survey of Men (CCSM) evaluates predictors of student success for…

Simulating the biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts of transient land cover change and wood harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence, Peter J.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Bonan, Gordon B.

To assess the climate impacts of historical and projected land cover change and land use in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) we have developed new time series of transient Community Land Model (CLM4) Plant Functional Type (PFT) parameters and wood harvest parameters. The new parameters capture the dynamics of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) land cover change and wood harvest trajectories for the historical period from 1850 to 2005, and for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) periods from 2006 to 2100. Analysis of the biogeochemical impacts of land cover change in CCSM4 with the parametersmore » found the model produced an historical cumulative land use flux of 148.4 PgC from 1850 to 2005, which was in good agreement with other global estimates of around 156 PgC for the same period. The biogeophysical impacts of only applying the transient land cover change parameters in CCSM4 were cooling of the near surface atmospheric over land by -0.1OC, through increased surface albedo and reduced shortwave radiation absorption. When combined with other transient climate forcings, the higher albedo from land cover change was overwhelmed at global scales by decreases in snow albedo from black carbon deposition and from high latitude warming. At regional scales however the land cover change forcing persisted resulting in reduced warming, with the biggest impacts in eastern North America. The future CCSM4 RCP simulations showed that the CLM4 transient PFT and wood harvest parameters could be used to represent a wide range of human land cover change and land use scenarios. Furthermore, these simulations ranged from the RCP 4.5 reforestation scenario that was able to draw down 82.6 PgC from the atmosphere, to the RCP 8.5 wide scale deforestation scenario that released 171.6 PgC to the atmosphere.« less

The role of climate and vegetation on woolly mammoth extinction on St. Paul Island, Alaska and megafauna extinction in North America in the late Quaternary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Porter, W.; Miller, P. A.; Graham, R. W.; Williams, J. W.

2016-12-01

Estimate of megafauna behaviors dynamically under associated environmental factors is important to understand the mechanisms and causes of the late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions. On St. Paul Island, an isolated remnant of the Bering Land Bridge, a late-surviving population of woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) persisted until 5,600 cal BP, while 37 out of 54 megafauna species in the continent of North America, all herbivores, went extinct at the end of Pleistocene between 13,800 and 11,500 cal BP. Proposed natural drivers of the extinction events include abrupt temperature changes, food resource loss and freshwater shortage. Here we tested these three hypothesized mechanisms, using a physiological model (Niche Mapper) to estimate individual megafauna behaviors from the perspectives of metabolic rate, individual vegetation and freshwater requirement under simulated climates from Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), vegetation reconstructions based on dynamic LPJ-GUESS model and woolly mammoth and megafauna species trait data reconstructed based on mammal fossils. Preliminary simulations of woolly mammoth on St. Paul Island point to the importance of net vegetation primary productivity and freshwater availability as limits on the carrying capacity of St. Paul for mammoth populations, with a low carrying capacity in the middle Holocene making this population highly vulnerable to extinction. Results also indicate that the abrupt warming based around 14,000 cal BP in Bering land bridge on CCSM3 simulations causes woolly mammoth extinction, by driving metabolic rate high up beyond the active basic metabolic rate. Analysis suggests a positive relationship between temperature and metabolic rate, and woolly mammoth would go extinct when summer temperature is up to 12 °C or higher. However the temperature reconstructed based on regional proxies is relatively stable compared to CCSM3 simulations, and leads to stable metabolic rate of woolly mammoth and no extinction events. Proposed simulations of megafauna species in North America indicate the role of ice sheets in limiting habitats. This work helps resolve the drivers of extinction for a small island surviving woolly mammoth population and worldwide megafauna extinctions in the late Quaternary.

Simulating the Pineapple Express in the half degree Community Climate System Model, CCSM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shields, Christine A.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.

2016-07-01

Atmospheric rivers are recognized as major contributors to the poleward transport of water vapor. Upon reaching land, these phenomena also play a critical role in extreme precipitation and flooding events. The Pineapple Express (PE) is defined as an atmospheric river extending out of the deep tropics and reaching the west coast of North America. Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) high-resolution ensemble simulations for the twentieth and 21st centuries are diagnosed to identify the PE. Analysis of the twentieth century simulations indicated that the CCSM4 accurately captures the spatial and temporal climatology of the PE. Analysis of the end 21st century simulations indicates a significant increase in storm duration and intensity of precipitation associated with landfall of the PE. Only a modest increase in the number of atmospheric rivers of a few percent is projected for the end of 21st century.

Boundary conditions for the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frigola, Amanda; Prange, Matthias; Schulz, Michael

2018-04-01

The Middle Miocene Climate Transition was characterized by major Antarctic ice sheet expansion and global cooling during the interval ˜ 15-13 Ma. Here we present two sets of boundary conditions for global general circulation models characterizing the periods before (Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum; MMCO) and after (Middle Miocene Glaciation; MMG) the transition. These boundary conditions include Middle Miocene global topography, bathymetry, and vegetation. Additionally, Antarctic ice volume and geometry, sea level, and atmospheric CO2 concentration estimates for the MMCO and the MMG are reviewed. The MMCO and MMG boundary conditions have been successfully applied to the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) to provide evidence of their suitability for global climate modeling. The boundary-condition files are available for use as input in a wide variety of global climate models and constitute a valuable tool for modeling studies with a focus on the Middle Miocene.

The Eemian climate simulated by two models of different complexities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikolova, Irina; Yin, Qiuzhen; Berger, Andre; Singh, Umesh; Karami, Pasha

2013-04-01

The Eemian period, also known as MIS-5, experienced warmer than today climate, reduction in ice sheets and important sea-level rise. These interesting features have made the Eemian appropriate to evaluate climate models when forced with astronomical and greenhouse gas forcings different from today. In this work, we present the simulated Eemian climate by two climate models of different complexities, LOVECLIM (LLN Earth system model of intermediate complexity) and CCSM3 (NCAR atmosphere-ocean general circulation model). Feedbacks from sea ice, vegetation, monsoon and ENSO phenomena are discussed to explain the regional similarities/dissimilarities in both models with respect to the pre-industrial (PI) climate. Significant warming (cooling) over almost all the continents during boreal summer (winter) leads to a largely increased (reduced) seasonal contrast in the northern (southern) hemisphere, mainly due to the much higher (lower) insolation received by the whole Earth in boreal summer (winter). The arctic is warmer than at PI through the whole year, resulting from its much higher summer insolation and its remnant effect in the following fall-winter through the interactions between atmosphere, ocean and sea ice. Regional discrepancies exist in the sea-ice formation zones between the two models. Excessive sea-ice formation in CCSM3 results in intense regional cooling. In both models intensified African monsoon and vegetation feedback are responsible for the cooling during summer in North Africa and on the Arabian Peninsula. Over India precipitation maximum is found further west, while in Africa the precipitation maximum migrates further north. Trees and grassland expand north in Sahel/Sahara, trees being more abundant in the results from LOVECLIM than from CCSM3. A mix of forest and grassland occupies continents and expand deep in the high northern latitudes in line with proxy records. Desert areas reduce significantly in Northern Hemisphere, but increase in North Australia. Tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) annual cycle, modeled by CCSM3, suggests a minor shift towards an El Nino. However, the SST variability in our LOVECLIM simulations is particularly small due to the overestimated thermocline's depth. The simulated large-scale climate change during the Eemian compares reasonably well with proxy data, giving credit to both models and climate reconstructions. Acknowledgments This work and I. Nikolova, U. K. Singh and M. P. Karami are supported by the European Research Council Advanced Grant EMIS (No 227348 of the Program 'Ideas'). Q. Z. Yin is supported by the Belgian National Fund for Scientific Research (F. R. S. -FNRS). N. Herold is thanked for the simulations with CCSM3. Access to computer facilities was made easier through sponsorship from S. A. Electrabel, Belgium. Keywords: CCSM3, LOVECLIM, MIS-5, surface temperature, monsoon, vegetation, ENSO

How Well Has Global Ocean Heat Content Variability Been Measured?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, A.; Weiss, J.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Fabienne, G.

2016-12-01

We introduce a new strategy that uses synthetic observations of an ensemble of model simulations to test the fidelity of an observational strategy, quantifying how well it captures the statistics of variability. We apply this test to the 0-700m global ocean heat content anomaly (OHCA) as observed with in-situ measurements by the Coriolis Dataset for Reanalysis (CORA), using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3.5. One-year running mean OHCAs for the years 2005 onward are found to faithfully capture the variability. During these years, synthetic observations of the model are strongly correlated at 0.94±0.06 with the actual state of the model. Overall, sub-annual variability and data before 2005 are significantly affected by the variability of the observing system. In contrast, the sometimes-used weighted integral of observations is not a good indicator of OHCA as variability in the observing system contaminates dynamical variability.

Surface temperature dataset for North America obtained by application of optimal interpolation algorithm merging tree-ring chronologies and climate model output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Nie, Suping; Zhao, Zongci; Huang, Jianbin; Wang, Shaowu; Tian, Qinhua

2017-02-01

A new dataset of surface temperature over North America has been constructed by merging climate model results and empirical tree-ring data through the application of an optimal interpolation algorithm. Errors of both the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) simulation and the tree-ring reconstruction were considered to optimize the combination of the two elements. Variance matching was used to reconstruct the surface temperature series. The model simulation provided the background field, and the error covariance matrix was estimated statistically using samples from the simulation results with a running 31-year window for each grid. Thus, the merging process could continue with a time-varying gain matrix. This merging method (MM) was tested using two types of experiment, and the results indicated that the standard deviation of errors was about 0.4 °C lower than the tree-ring reconstructions and about 0.5 °C lower than the model simulation. Because of internal variabilities and uncertainties in the external forcing data, the simulated decadal warm-cool periods were readjusted by the MM such that the decadal variability was more reliable (e.g., the 1940-1960s cooling). During the two centuries (1601-1800 AD) of the preindustrial period, the MM results revealed a compromised spatial pattern of the linear trend of surface temperature, which is in accordance with the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Compared with pure CCSM4 simulations, it was demonstrated that the MM brought a significant improvement to the decadal variability of the gridded temperature via the merging of temperature-sensitive tree-ring records.

Exploring the Mass Balance and Sea Level Contribution of Global Glaciers During the Last Interglaciation and Mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, S.; Ullman, D. J.; He, F.; Carlson, A. E.; Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

2017-12-01

Understanding the behavior of the world's glaciers during previous interglaciations is key to interpreting the sensitivity and behavior of the cryosphere under scenarios of future anthropogenic warming. Previous studies of the Last Interglaciation (LIG, 130 ka to 116 ka) indicate elevated global temperatures and higher sea levels than the Holocene, but most assessments of the impact on the cryosphere have focused on the mass balance and volume change of polar ice sheets. In assessing sea-level sources, most studies assume complete deglacation of global glaciers, but this has yet to be tested. In addition, the significant changes in orbital forcing during the LIG and the associated impacts on climate seasonality and variability may have led to unique glacier evolution.Here, we explore the effect of LIG climate on the global glacier budget. We employ the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), forced by simulated LIG equilibrium climate anomalies (127 ka) from the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). OGGM is a glacier mass balance and dynamics model, specifically designed to reconstruct global glacier volume change. Our simulations have been conducted in an equilibrium state to determine the effect of the prolonged climate forcing of the LIG. Due to unknown flow characteristics of glaciers during the LIG, we explore the parametric uncertainty in the mass balance and flow sensitivity parameters. As a point of comparison, we also conduct a series of simulations using forcing anomalies from the CCSM3 mid-Holocene (6 ka) experiment. Results from both experiments show that glacier mass balance is highly sensitive to these sensitivity parameters, pointing at the need for glacier margin calibration for OGGM in paleoclimate applications.

Failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Ivanova, D.; Brandon, S.; Domyancic, D.; Zhang, Y.

2013-01-01

Simulations using IPCC-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Quantitative analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation crashes within the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). About 8.5% of our CCSM4 simulations failed for numerical reasons at combinations of POP2 parameter values. We apply support vector machine (SVM) classification from machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. A committee of SVM classifiers readily predicts model failures in an independent validation ensemble, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve metric (AUC > 0.96). The causes of the simulation failures are determined through a global sensitivity analysis. Combinations of 8 parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity from three different POP2 parameterizations are the major sources of the failures. This information can be used to improve POP2 and CCSM4 by incorporating correlations across the relevant parameters. Our method can also be used to quantify, predict, and understand simulation crashes in other complex geoscientific models.

Failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Ivanova, D.; Brandon, S.; Domyancic, D.; Zhang, Y.

2013-08-01

Simulations using IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Quantitative analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation crashes within the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). About 8.5% of our CCSM4 simulations failed for numerical reasons at combinations of POP2 parameter values. We applied support vector machine (SVM) classification from machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. A committee of SVM classifiers readily predicted model failures in an independent validation ensemble, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve metric (AUC > 0.96). The causes of the simulation failures were determined through a global sensitivity analysis. Combinations of 8 parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity from three different POP2 parameterizations were the major sources of the failures. This information can be used to improve POP2 and CCSM4 by incorporating correlations across the relevant parameters. Our method can also be used to quantify, predict, and understand simulation crashes in other complex geoscientific models.

Projecting Future Water Levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennington, V.; Notaro, M.; Holman, K.

2013-12-01

The Laurentian Great Lakes are the largest freshwater system on Earth, containing 84% of North America's freshwater. The lakes are a valuable economic and recreational resource, valued at over 62 billion in annual wages and supporting a 7 billion fishery. Shipping, recreation, and coastal property values are significantly impacted by water level variability, with large economic consequences. Great Lakes water levels fluctuate both seasonally and long-term, responding to natural and anthropogenic climate changes. Due to the integrated nature of water levels, a prolonged small change in any one of the net basin supply components: over-lake precipitation, watershed runoff, or evaporation from the lake surface, may result in important trends in water levels. We utilize the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics's Regional Climate Model Version 4.5.6 to dynamically downscale three global global climate models that represent a spread of potential future climate change for the region to determine whether the climate models suggest a robust response of the Laurentian Great Lakes to anthropogenic climate change. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Version 5 (MIROC5), the National Centre for Meteorological Research Earth system model (CNRM-CM5), and the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) project different regional temperature increases and precipitation change over the next century and are used as lateral boundary conditions. We simulate the historical (1980-2000) and late-century periods (2080-2100). Upon model evaluation we will present dynamically downscaled projections of net basin supply changes for each of the Laurentian Great Lakes.

Robust effects of cloud superparameterization on simulated daily rainfall intensity statistics across multiple versions of the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Pritchard, Michael S.; Burt, Melissa A.; ...

2016-02-01

This study evaluates several important statistics of daily rainfall based on frequency and amount distributions as simulated by a global climate model whose precipitation does not depend on convective parameterization—Super-Parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM). Three superparameterized and conventional versions of CAM, coupled within the Community Earth System Model (CESM1 and CCSM4), are compared against two modern rainfall products (GPCP 1DD and TRMM 3B42) to discriminate robust effects of superparameterization that emerge across multiple versions. The geographic pattern of annual-mean rainfall is mostly insensitive to superparameterization, with only slight improvements in the double-ITCZ bias. However, unfolding intensity distributions reveal several improvementsmore » in the character of rainfall simulated by SPCAM. The rainfall rate that delivers the most accumulated rain (i.e., amount mode) is systematically too weak in all versions of CAM relative to TRMM 3B42 and does not improve with horizontal resolution. It is improved by superparameterization though, with higher modes in regions of tropical wave, Madden-Julian Oscillation, and monsoon activity. Superparameterization produces better representations of extreme rates compared to TRMM 3B42, without sensitivity to horizontal resolution seen in CAM. SPCAM produces more dry days over land and fewer over the ocean. Updates to CAM’s low cloud parameterizations have narrowed the frequency peak of light rain, converging toward SPCAM. Poleward of 50°, where more rainfall is produced by resolved-scale processes in CAM, few differences discriminate the rainfall properties of the two models. Lastly, these results are discussed in light of their implication for future rainfall changes in response to climate forcing.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LaRow, Timothy

The SSTs used in our study come from the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) (Gent et al 2011) and from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CanESM2) (Chylek et al20ll) climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) (Taylor et al2012). We've examined the tropical cyclones using both the historical simulation that employs volcanic and aerosol forcing as well as the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). In addition, we've compared the present day North Atlantic tropical cyclone metrics from a previous study (LaRow, 2013) to these climate change experiments. The experimental setup is shownmore » in Table 1. We considered the CMIP5 experiment number '3.2 historical' (Taylor et al,201l), which provides simulations of the recent past (1850-2005). The second set of CMIP5 SSTs is the RCp4.5 experiment where the radiative forcing stabilizes at 45W m-2 after 2100 (experiment number 4.1 in Taylor etal2}ll).« less

Simulation of different types of ENSO impacts on South Asian Monsoon in CCSM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, Siraj ul; Tang, Youmin

2017-02-01

It has been found in observation that there are different types of influences of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the South Asian Monsoon (SAM). A correct description and representation of these teleconnections is critical for climate models to simulate and predict SAM. In this study, we examine these teleconnections in NCAR CAM4 and CCSM4 models, including the strength and weakness of these models in preserving different types of ENSO-SAM relationships. By using observational and simulation dataset, the composite analysis, based on specific selection criteria, is performed for both SAM rainfall and the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Anomalous SAM rainfall is characterized in three different types i.e. the indirect influence of the SST anomalies of preceding winter (DJF-only), direct influence of the SST anomalies of concurrent summer (JJAS-only) and the combined influence of both preceding winter and concurrent summer (DJF&JJAS). The analysis reveals that CAM4 uncoupled simulation can reasonably well reproduce the anomalous SAM rainfall in DJF-only and DJF&JJAS types whereas the model fails to simulate the anomalous rainfall in the JJAS-only type. The better performance of CAM4, particularly in DJF&JJAS type, comes from its realistic simulation of moisture content and thermal contrast. Its failure to preserve the ENSO-SAM relationship of JJAS-only type is due to the absence of ENSO induced warming in Northern Indian Ocean via atmospheric circulation which is indirectly linked to the lack of air-sea coupling. The role of Indian Ocean in controlling the ENSO-SAM teleconnections of the DJF&JJAS type is further investigated using CAM4 sensitivity experiments. It is found that in absence of Indian Ocean SST, the anomalous SAM summer rainfall suppresses in the DJF&JJAS type, suggesting the important modulation by Indian Ocean SST probably through the preceding winter equatorial Pacific SST forcing and the atmospheric circulations. On the other hand, CCSM4 shows large systematical errors in DJF-only and DJF&JJAS types and reproduce weak anomalous SAM rainfall. The failure of CCSM4 in simulating DJF-only and DJF&JJAS types is found mainly due to the errors in its SST simulation. The JJAS-only type is better reproduced in the CCSM4 simulation as compared to CAM4 and observation composites. Strong convergence over the SAM region which intensifies the anomalous SAM is seen to be responsible for its better simulation in this type. It is found that the atmospheric circulations in CCSM4 contribute more than the thermal contrast in modulating the intensity of anomalous rainfall in JJAS-only type. This study suggests that, although air-sea coupling is important for better SAM simulation and its relationship with ENSO, the SST bias in coupled model can significantly degrade ENSO-SAM relationship.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

Studying the impact of climate change on flooding in 12 river basins using CCSM4 output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Hopson, T. M.; Gilleland, E.; Lamarque, J.; Hu, A.

2011-12-01

The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on flood frequency changes in twelve large river basins by assessing the changes in upper catchment precipitation as well as the impact of sea-level rise at the river mouths. Using the recently released model output of the CCSM4 for upper catchment precipitation in twelve large river basins as well as the sea-level rise anomalies at the respective river mouths, we assess the impact of climate change on the return periods of flooding in the individual basins. Upper catchment precipitation, discharge as well as annual mean thermosteric sea-level rise are taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6. In a next step, return levels are compared from both 20th century and future model simulations for time slices at 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. It can be seen that what is e.g. a 20 year flood in present-day climate has a return period of ~15/10 years (RCP 2.6/8.5) in 2070. This effect strengthens as time progresses in the 21st century. Especially in low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, changes in sea-level rise can be expected to influence present-day flood characteristics. Sea-level rise anomalies for the 21st century are taken from CCSM4 model output at each of the river mouths. The backwater effect of sea-level rise can be estimated by referring to the geometry of the river channel and calculating an effective additional discharge both at the river mouth and inland. Judging from our work, the increase in effective discharge due to sea-level rise cannot be neglected when discussing flooding in the respective river basins. Impact of sea-level rise on changes in return levels will be investigated further. To blend both precipitation and sea-level effects together, we use extreme-value theory to calculate how the tails of the current river discharge distribution in both the lower and middle reaches of the river basins will be impacted by changing climate.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

PubMed

Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

2013-09-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Dongliang; Xu, Peng; Xu, Tengfei

2017-01-01

An experiment using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.

Comparison of current and paleorecharge on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Pelt, S.; Allen, D. M.; Kohfeld, K. E.

2016-12-01

During the Terminal Classic Period (TCP) 800-1000 AD, the Yucatan Peninsula is thought to have experienced a 150-year long series of droughts that contributed to the demise of the Mayan civilization. The occurrence of this type of event suggests that similar precipitation extremes could occur again, and severely impact water supplies. Studying the past occurrence of droughts may provide more insight into the possible timing and intensity of droughts. However, observed data of the past climate is limited to proxy records, which are not detailed enough for groundwater modeling. The goals of this study were two-fold: (a) to generate a daily paleoclimate time series for use in a recharge model, and (b) to compare current and past recharge on the Yucatan Peninsula. Past temperature and precipitation were reconstructed using a novel backwards shift factor approach using output from two experiments of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Shift factors were applied using two approaches: (1) application of shift factors to a stochastic weather series based on the observed climate, and (2) application of shift factors directly to the observed climate. The second method (direct shift factor approach) was found to be more suitable for the Yucatan Peninsula, as the observed median annual precipitation was poorly reproduced in the stochastic data. The reconstructed precipitation was used in the recharge model, which used the unsaturated component of the modeling program MIKE SHE. The comparison of the TCP and the current climate models indicated that on average, 1.74% more recharge occurred annually during the TCP. The seasonal water balance components showed that the majority of this higher recharge occurred during the wet season, with little to no increase in recharge during the dry season. Due to issues with the CCSM4 model data, changes in climate variability were not able to be incorporated into this study. If variability were incorporated, the TCP climate may have had more extreme precipitation values which are not represented in the recharge model, and the Yucatan Peninsula may have been susceptible to dry season droughts.

Bladder outlet obstruction triggers neural plasticity in sensory pathways and contributes to impaired sensitivity in erectile dysfunction.

PubMed

Malykhina, Anna P; Lei, Qi; Chang, Shaohua; Pan, Xiao-Qing; Villamor, Antonio N; Smith, Ariana L; Seftel, Allen D

2013-05-15

Lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and erectile dysfunction (ED) are common problems in aging males worldwide. The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of bladder neck nerve damage induced by partial bladder outlet obstruction (PBOO) on sensory innervation of the corpus cavernosum (CC) and CC smooth muscle (CCSM) using a rat model of PBOO induced by a partial ligation of the bladder neck. Retrograde labeling technique was used to label dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neurons that innervate the urinary bladder and CC. Contractility and relaxation of the CCSM was studied in vitro, and expression of nitric oxide synthase (NOS) was evaluated by Western blotting. Concentration of the sensory neuropeptides substance P (SP) and calcitonin gene-related peptide was measured by ELISA. Partial obstruction of the bladder neck caused a significant hypertrophy of the urinary bladders (2.5-fold increase at 2 wk). Analysis of L6-S2 DRG sections determined that sensory ganglia received input from both the urinary bladder and CC with 5-7% of all neurons double labeled from both organs. The contractile responses of CC muscle strips to KCl and phenylephrine were decreased after PBOO, followed by a reduced relaxation response to nitroprusside. A significant decrease in neuronal NOS expression, but not in endothelial NOS or protein kinase G (PKG-1), was detected in the CCSM of the obstructed animals. Additionally, PBOO caused some impairment to sensory nerves as evidenced by a fivefold downregulation of SP in the CC (P ≤ 0.001). Our results provide evidence that PBOO leads to the impairment of bladder neck afferent innervation followed by a decrease in CCSM relaxation, downregulation of nNOS expression, and reduced content of sensory neuropeptides in the CC smooth muscle. These results suggest that nerve damage in PBOO may contribute to LUTS-ED comorbidity and trigger secondary changes in the contraction/relaxation mechanisms of CCSM.

An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

2013-12-01

This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen climate parameters provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century changes in global mean surface air temperature from previous work with the IGSM. Because the IGSM-CAM framework only considers one particular climate model, it cannot be used to assess the structural modeling uncertainty arising from differences in the parameterization suites of climate models. However, comparison of the IGSM-CAM projections with simulations of 31 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show that the range of warming at the continental scale shows very good agreement between the two ensemble simulations, except over Antarctica, where the IGSM-CAM overestimates the warming. This demonstrates that by sampling the climate system response, the IGSM-CAM, even though it relies on one single climate model, can essentially reproduce the range of future continental warming simulated by more than 30 different models. Precipitation changes projected in the IGSM-CAM simulations and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble both display a large uncertainty at the continental scale. The two ensemble simulations show good agreement over Asia and Europe. However, the ranges of precipitation changes do not overlap - but display similar size - over Africa and South America, two continents where models generally show little agreement in the sign of precipitation changes and where CCSM3 tends to be an outlier. Overall, the IGSM-CAM provides an efficient and consistent framework to explore the large uncertainty in future projections of global and regional climate change associated with uncertainty in the climate response and projected emissions.

Climate Sensitivity to Realistic Solar Heating of Snow and Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flanner, M.; Zender, C. S.

2004-12-01

Snow and ice-covered surfaces are highly reflective and play an integral role in the planetary radiation budget. However, GCMs typically prescribe snow reflection and absorption based on minimal knowledge of snow physical characteristics. We performed climate sensitivity simulations with the NCAR CCSM including a new physically-based multi-layer snow radiative transfer model. The model predicts the effects of vertically resolved heating, absorbing aerosol, and snowpack transparency on snowpack evolution and climate. These processes significantly reduce the model's near-infrared albedo bias over deep snowpacks. While the current CCSM implementation prescribes all solar radiative absorption to occur in the top 2 cm of snow, we estimate that about 65% occurs beneath this level. Accounting for the vertical distribution of snowpack heating and more realistic reflectance significantly alters snowpack depth, surface albedo, and surface air temperature over Northern Hemisphere regions. Implications for the strength of the ice-albedo feedback will be discussed.

Effects of the Bering Strait closure on AMOC and global climate under different background climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing; Otto-Bliestner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Rosenbloom, Nan

2015-03-01

Previous studies have suggested that the status of the Bering Strait may have a significant influence on global climate variability on centennial, millennial, and even longer time scales. Here we use multiple versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM, versions 2 and 3) to investigate the influence of the Bering Strait closure/opening on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and global mean climate under present-day, 15 thousand-year before present (kyr BP), and 112 kyr BP climate boundary conditions. Our results show that regardless of the version of the model used or the widely different background climates, the Bering Strait's closure produces a robust result of a strengthening of the AMOC, and an increase in the northward meridional heat transport in the Atlantic. As a consequence, the climate becomes warmer in the North Atlantic and the surrounding regions, but cooler in the North Pacific, leading to a seesaw-like climate change between these two basins. For the first time it is noted that the absence of the Bering Strait throughflow causes a slower motion of Arctic sea ice, a reduced upper ocean water exchange between the Arctic and North Atlantic, reduced sea ice export and less fresh water in the North Atlantic. These changes contribute positively to the increased upper ocean density there, thus strengthening the AMOC. Potentially these changes in the North Atlantic could have a significant effect on the ice sheets both upstream and downstream in ice age climate, and further influence global sea level changes.

Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2017-12-01

Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahowald, Natalie; Rothenberg, D.; Lindsay, Keith

2011-02-01

Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climatemore » feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.« less

[Probability, Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics Feasibility Study No. 7.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, R.

These materials were written with the aim of reflecting the thinking of the Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics (CCSM) regarding the goals and objectives for school mathematics. They represent a practical response to a proposal by CCSM that some elements of probability be introduced in the elementary grades. These materials provide children…

Merging tree ring chronologies and climate system model simulated temperature by optimal interpolation algorithm in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Nie, Suping; Huang, Jianbin; Wang, Shaowu; Tian, Qinhua

2015-04-01

A new dataset of annual mean surface temperature has been constructed over North America in recent 500 years by performing optimal interpolation (OI) algorithm. Totally, 149 series totally were screened out including 69 tree ring width (MXD) and 80 tree ring width (TRW) chronologies are screened from International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). The simulated annual mean surface temperature derives from the past1000 experiment results of Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Different from existing research that applying data assimilation approach to (General Circulation Models) GCMs simulation, the errors of both the climate model simulation and tree ring reconstruction were considered, with a view to combining the two parts in an optimal way. Variance matching (VM) was employed to calibrate tree ring chronologies on CRUTEM4v, and corresponding errors were estimated through leave-one-out process. Background error covariance matrix was estimated from samples of simulation results in a running 30-year window in a statistical way. Actually, the background error covariance matrix was calculated locally within the scanning range (2000km in this research). Thus, the merging process continued with a time-varying local gain matrix. The merging method (MM) was tested by two kinds of experiments, and the results indicated standard deviation of errors can be reduced by about 0.3 degree centigrade lower than tree ring reconstructions and 0.5 degree centigrade lower than model simulation. During the recent Obvious decadal variability can be identified in MM results including the evident cooling (0.10 degree per decade) in 1940-60s, wherein the model simulation exhibit a weak increasing trend (0.05 degree per decade) instead. MM results revealed a compromised spatial pattern of the linear trend of surface temperature during a typical period (1601-1800 AD) in Little Ice Age, which basically accorded with the phase transitions of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO). Through the empirical orthogonal functions and power spectrum analysis, it was demonstrated that, compared with the pure simulations of CCSM4, MM made significant improvement of decadal variability for the gridded temperature in North America by merging the temperature-sensitive tree ring records.

Amplified Late Pliocene terrestrial warmth in northern high latitudes from greater radiative forcing and closed Arctic Ocean gateways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Ran; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Fletcher, Tamara L.; Tabor, Clay R.; Ballantyne, Ashley P.; Brady, Esther C.

2017-05-01

Proxy reconstructions of the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP, between 3.264 and 3.025 Ma) suggest terrestrial temperatures were much warmer in the northern high latitudes (55°-90°N, referred to as NHL) than present-day. Climate models participating in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 (PlioMIP1) tend to underestimate this warmth. For instance, the underestimate is ∼10 °C on average across NHL and up to 17 °C in the Canadian Arctic region in the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Here, we explore potential mPWP climate forcings that might contribute to this mPWP mismatch. We carry out seven experiments to assess terrestrial temperature responses to Pliocene Arctic gateway closure, variations in CO2 level, and orbital forcing at millennial time scale. To better compare the full range of simulated terrestrial temperatures with sparse proxy data, we introduce a pattern recognition technique that simplifies the model surface temperatures to a few representative patterns that can be validate with the limited terrestrial proxy data. The pattern recognition technique reveals two prominent features of simulated Pliocene surface temperature responses. First, distinctive patterns of amplified warming occur in the NHL, which can be explained by lowered surface elevation of Greenland, pattern and amount of Arctic sea ice loss, and changing strength of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Second, patterns of surface temperature response are similar among experiments with different forcing mechanisms. This similarity is due to strong feedbacks from responses in surface albedo and troposphere water vapor content to sea ice changes, which overwhelm distinctions in forcings from changes in insolation, CO2 forcing, and Arctic gateway closure. By comparing CCSM4 simulations with proxy records, we demonstrate that both model and proxy records show similar patterns of mPWP NHL terrestrial warmth, but the model underestimates the magnitude. High insolation, greater CO2 forcing, and Arctic gateways closure each contributes to reduce the underestimate by enhancing the Arctic warmth of 1-2 °C. These results highlight the importance of considering proxy NHL warmth in the context of Pliocene Arctic gateway changes, and variations in insolation and CO2 forcing.

Multi-centennial upper-ocean heat content reconstruction using online data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, W. A.; Hakim, G. J.

2017-12-01

The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) provides an advanced paleoclimate ensemble data assimilation framework for multi-variate climate field reconstructions over the Common Era. Although reconstructions in this framework with full Earth system models remain prohibitively expensive, recent work has shown improved ensemble reconstruction validation using computationally inexpensive linear inverse models (LIMs). Here we leverage these techniques in pursuit of a new multi-centennial field reconstruction of upper-ocean heat content (OHC), synthesizing model dynamics with observational constraints from proxy records. OHC is an important indicator of internal climate variability and responds to planetary energy imbalances. Therefore, a consistent extension of the OHC record in time will help inform aspects of low-frequency climate variability. We use the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) last millennium simulations to derive the LIMs, and the PAGES2K v.2.0 proxy database to perform annually resolved reconstructions of upper-OHC, surface air temperature, and wind stress over the last 500 years. Annual OHC reconstructions and uncertainties for both the global mean and regional basins are compared against observational and reanalysis data. We then investigate differences in dynamical behavior at decadal and longer time scales between the reconstruction and simulations in the last-millennium Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). Preliminary investigation of 1-year forecast skill for an OHC-only LIM shows largely positive spatial grid point local anomaly correlations (LAC) with a global average LAC of 0.37. Compared to 1-year OHC persistence forecast LAC (global average LAC of 0.30), the LIM outperforms the persistence forecasts in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, the equatorial Atlantic, and in certain regions near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In other regions, the forecast correlations are less than the persistence case but still positive overall.

An Exploratory Assessment of the Validity of the Community College Survey of Men (CCSM): Implications for Serving Veteran Men

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De La Garza, Thomas; Wood, J. Luke; Harris, Frank, III

2015-01-01

The Community College Survey of Men (CCSM) assesses predictors of student success for historically underrepresented and underserved men in community colleges. The instrument is designed to inform programming and service-delivery for male students (Wood & Harris, 2013). While the instrument was designed for community college men in general,…

The Community College Survey of Men: An Initial Validation of the Instrument's Non-Cognitive Outcomes Construct

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, J. \\Luke; Harris, Frank, III.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this manuscript is to discuss the utility of the Community College Survey of Men (CCSM[c]), an instrument designed to examine predictors of student success for men in community colleges. The authors highlight initial validation results from a recent pilot of the CCSM[c], with a focus on the non-cognitive outcomes construct employed…

Analyzing the Response of Climate Perturbations to (Tropical) Cyclones using the WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tewari, M.; Mittal, R.; Radhakrishnan, C.; Cipriani, J.; Watson, C.

2015-12-01

An analysis of global climate models shows considerable changes in the intensity and characteristics of future, warm climate cyclones. At regional scales, deviations in cyclone characteristics are often derived using idealized perturbations in the humidity, temperature and surface conditions. In this work, a more realistic approach is adopted by applying climate perturbations from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) to ERA-interim data to generate the initial and boundary conditions for future climate simulations. The climate signal perturbations are generated from the differences in 21 years of mean data from CCSM4 with representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) for the periods: (a) 2070-2090 (future climate), (b) 2025-2045 (near-future climate) and (c) 1985-2005 (current climate). Four individual cyclone cases are simulated with and without climate perturbations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a nested configuration. Each cyclone is characterized by variations in intensity, landfall location, precipitation and societal damage. To calculate societal damage, we use the recently introduced Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP) index evolved from the Willis Hurricane Index (WHI). As CDP has been developed for general societal applications, this work should provide useful insights for resilience analyses and industry (e.g., re-insurance).

Downscaling of sea level and fluxes in the Malacca and Singapore Straits using A2 scenario projections of AR4 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tkalich, Pavel; Koshebutsky, Volodymyr; Maderich, Vladimir; Thompson, Bijoy

2013-04-01

IPCC-coordinated work has been completed within Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to project climate and ocean variables for the 21st century using coupled atmospheric-ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs). Resolution of the GCMs is not sufficient to resolve local features of narrow Malacca and Singapore Straits, having complex coastal line and bathymetry; therefore, dynamical downscaling of ocean variables from the global grid to the regional scale is advisable using ocean models, such as Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). ROMS is customized for the domain centered on the Singapore and Malacca Straits, extending from 98°E to 109°E and 6°S to 14°N. Following IPCC methodology, the modelling is done for the past reference period 1961-1990, and then for the 21st century projections; subsequently, established past and projected trends and variability of ocean parameters are inter-compared. Boundary conditions for the past reference period are extracted from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), while the projections are made using A2 scenario runs of ECHAM5 and CCSM3 GCMs. Atmospheric forcing for ROMS is downscaled with WRF using ERA-40 dataset for the past period, and outputs of atmospheric variables of respective GCMs for the projections. ROMS-downscaled regional sea level change during 1961-1990, corrected for the global thermosteric effect, land-ice melting and Global Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) effect, corresponds to a mean total trend of 1.52 mm/year, which is higher than the global estimate 1.25 mm/year and observed global sea-level rise (1.44 mm/year) for the same period. Local linear trend in the Singapore Strait (0.9 mm/year) corresponds to the observed trend at Victoria Dock tide gauge (1.1 mm/year) for the past period. Mean discharges through the Karimata, Malacca and Singapore Straits are 0.9, 0.21 and 0.12 Sv, respectively, fall in the range of observations and recent model estimates. A2 scenario projections using ROMS-ECHAM5 and ROMS-CCSM3 for 2011-2099 suggest that linear trends of sea level rise in Singapore Strait are 5.4 and 6.1 mm/year, respectively. These values fall in the range of global estimates of 3.0-8.5 mm/year. Mean sea level rise is expected around 0.43 m (ROMS-ECHAM5) and 0.47 m (ROMS-CCSM3) in 2099 relative to mean sea level in 2011. These values are greater than median estimation of global sea rise 0.32 under scenario A2. Mean discharge through Singapore Strait for scenario A2 during 2011 to 2099 is projected to be 0.062 Sv for ROMS-ECHAM5 and 0.11 Sv for ROMS-CCSM3. These projections are comparable to the discharges during 1961-1990 (0.065 and 0.11 Sv, respectively). The linear trend in discharges for the period 2011-2099 is relatively small with statistical confidence level being less than 95%. An important feature computationally discovered is the transient reversal of flow in the Singapore Strait during southwest monsoon. In general, the reversals of flow in ROMS-ECHAM5 and ROMS-CCSM3 are observed respectively to occur 1/3 and 1/5 of the whole period.

An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, James T; Thornton, Peter E

2009-12-01

The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Projectmore » (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons of the CLM3 offline results against observational datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). CLM version 4 has been evaluated using C-LAMP, showing improvement in many of the metrics. Efforts are now underway to initiate a Nitrogen-Land Model Intercomparison Project (N-LAMP) to better constrain the effects of the nitrogen cycle in biosphere models. Presented will be new results from C-LAMP for CLM4, initial N-LAMP developments, and the proposed land-biosphere model benchmarking activity.« less

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe; Anne M. K. Stoner; Mary Beth Adams; Douglas Burns; Ivan Fernandez; Myron J. Mitchell; James B. Shanley

2016-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and...

Congruence between distribution modelling and phylogeographical analyses reveals Quaternary survival of a toadflax species (Linaria elegans) in oceanic climate areas of a mountain ring range.

PubMed

Fernández-Mazuecos, Mario; Vargas, Pablo

2013-06-01

· The role of Quaternary climatic shifts in shaping the distribution of Linaria elegans, an Iberian annual plant, was investigated using species distribution modelling and molecular phylogeographical analyses. Three hypotheses are proposed to explain the Quaternary history of its mountain ring range. · The distribution of L. elegans was modelled using the maximum entropy method and projected to the last interglacial and to the last glacial maximum (LGM) using two different paleoclimatic models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). Two nuclear and three plastid DNA regions were sequenced for 24 populations (119 individuals sampled). Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographical, dating and coalescent-based population genetic analyses were conducted. · Molecular analyses indicated the existence of northern and southern glacial refugia and supported two routes of post-glacial recolonization. These results were consistent with the LGM distribution as inferred under the CCSM paleoclimatic model (but not under the MIROC model). Isolation between two major refugia was dated back to the Riss or Mindel glaciations, > 100 kyr before present (bp). · The Atlantic distribution of inferred refugia suggests that the oceanic (buffered)-continental (harsh) gradient may have played a key and previously unrecognized role in determining Quaternary distribution shifts of Mediterranean plants. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures.

PubMed

Marsicek, Jeremiah; Shuman, Bryan N; Bartlein, Patrick J; Shafer, Sarah L; Brewer, Simon

2018-01-31

Cooling during most of the past two millennia has been widely recognized and has been inferred to be the dominant global temperature trend of the past 11,700 years (the Holocene epoch). However, long-term cooling has been difficult to reconcile with global forcing, and climate models consistently simulate long-term warming. The divergence between simulations and reconstructions emerges primarily for northern mid-latitudes, for which pronounced cooling has been inferred from marine and coastal records using multiple approaches. Here we show that temperatures reconstructed from sub-fossil pollen from 642 sites across North America and Europe closely match simulations, and that long-term warming, not cooling, defined the Holocene until around 2,000 years ago. The reconstructions indicate that evidence of long-term cooling was limited to North Atlantic records. Early Holocene temperatures on the continents were more than two degrees Celsius below those of the past two millennia, consistent with the simulated effects of remnant ice sheets in the climate model Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3). CCSM3 simulates increases in 'growing degree days'-a measure of the accumulated warmth above five degrees Celsius per year-of more than 300 kelvin days over the Holocene, consistent with inferences from the pollen data. It also simulates a decrease in mean summer temperatures of more than two degrees Celsius, which correlates with reconstructed marine trends and highlights the potential importance of the different subseasonal sensitivities of the records. Despite the differing trends, pollen- and marine-based reconstructions are correlated at millennial-to-centennial scales, probably in response to ice-sheet and meltwater dynamics, and to stochastic dynamics similar to the temperature variations produced by CCSM3. Although our results depend on a single source of palaeoclimatic data (pollen) and a single climate-model simulation, they reinforce the notion that climate models can adequately simulate climates for periods other than the present-day. They also demonstrate that amplified warming in recent decades increased temperatures above the mean of any century during the past 11,000 years.

Reconciling divergent trends and millennial variations in Holocene temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsicek, Jeremiah; Shuman, Bryan N.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Brewer, Simon

2018-02-01

Cooling during most of the past two millennia has been widely recognized and has been inferred to be the dominant global temperature trend of the past 11,700 years (the Holocene epoch). However, long-term cooling has been difficult to reconcile with global forcing, and climate models consistently simulate long-term warming. The divergence between simulations and reconstructions emerges primarily for northern mid-latitudes, for which pronounced cooling has been inferred from marine and coastal records using multiple approaches. Here we show that temperatures reconstructed from sub-fossil pollen from 642 sites across North America and Europe closely match simulations, and that long-term warming, not cooling, defined the Holocene until around 2,000 years ago. The reconstructions indicate that evidence of long-term cooling was limited to North Atlantic records. Early Holocene temperatures on the continents were more than two degrees Celsius below those of the past two millennia, consistent with the simulated effects of remnant ice sheets in the climate model Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3). CCSM3 simulates increases in ‘growing degree days’—a measure of the accumulated warmth above five degrees Celsius per year—of more than 300 kelvin days over the Holocene, consistent with inferences from the pollen data. It also simulates a decrease in mean summer temperatures of more than two degrees Celsius, which correlates with reconstructed marine trends and highlights the potential importance of the different subseasonal sensitivities of the records. Despite the differing trends, pollen- and marine-based reconstructions are correlated at millennial-to-centennial scales, probably in response to ice-sheet and meltwater dynamics, and to stochastic dynamics similar to the temperature variations produced by CCSM3. Although our results depend on a single source of palaeoclimatic data (pollen) and a single climate-model simulation, they reinforce the notion that climate models can adequately simulate climates for periods other than the present-day. They also demonstrate that amplified warming in recent decades increased temperatures above the mean of any century during the past 11,000 years.

Evaluation of Probable Maximum Precipitation and Flood under Climate Change in the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Rastogi, D.; Ashfaq, M.; Naz, B. S.; Kabela, E.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Singh, N.; Preston, B. L.; Mei, R.

2016-12-01

Critical infrastructures are potentially vulnerable to extreme hydro-climatic events. Under a warming environment, the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood are likely to increase enhancing the needs to more accurately quantify the risks due to climate change. In this study, we utilized an integrated modeling framework that includes the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and a high resolution distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) to simulate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and flood (PMF) events over Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin. A total of 120 storms were selected to simulate moisture maximized PMP under different meteorological forcings, including historical storms driven by Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and baseline (1981-2010), near term future (2021-2050) and long term future (2071-2100) storms driven by Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) under Representative Concentrations Pathway 8.5 emission scenario. We also analyzed the sensitivity of PMF to various antecedent hydrologic conditions such as initial soil moisture conditions and tested different compulsive approaches. Overall, a statistical significant increase is projected for future PMP and PMF, mainly attributed to the increase of background air temperature. The ensemble of simulated PMP and PMF along with their sensitivity allows us to better quantify the potential risks associated with hydro-climatic extreme events on critical energy-water infrastructures such as major hydropower dams and nuclear power plants.

Glaciological reconstruction of Holocene ice margins in northwestern Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkel, S. D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kelly, M. A.; Axford, Y.

2014-12-01

The past few decades of climate warming have brought overall margin retreat to the Greenland Ice Sheet. In order to place recent and projected changes in context, we are undertaking a collaborative field-modeling study that aims to reconstruct the Holocene history of ice-margin fluctuation near Thule (~76.5°N, 68.7°W), and also along the North Ice Cap (NIC) in the Nunatarssuaq region (~76.7°N, 67.4°W). Fieldwork reported by Kelly et al. (2013) reveals that ice in the study areas was less extensive than at present ca. 4700 (GIS) and ca. 880 (NIC) cal. years BP, presumably in response to a warmer climate. We are now exploring Holocene ice-climate coupling using the University of Maine Ice Sheet Model (UMISM). Our approach is to first test what imposed climate anomalies can afford steady state ice margins in accord with field data. A second test encompasses transient simulation of the Holocene, with climate boundary conditions supplied by existing paleo runs of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), and a climate forcing signal derived from Greenland ice cores. In both cases, the full ice sheet is simulated at 10 km resolution with nested domains at 0.5 km for the study areas. UMISM experiments are underway, and results will be reported at the meeting.

Regional and global climate for the mid-Pliocene using CCSM4 with PlioMIP2 boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandan, D.; Peltier, W. R.

2016-12-01

The mid-Pliocene ( 3 Mya) hothouse continues to intrigue the climate community regarding the nature of the feedback mechanisms that could have amplified the warming that is expected from a modest concentration of atmospheric carbon-dioxide ( 300-400 ppmv). The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was created to help understand the mid-Pliocene climate through intercomparison between different climate models. The results from the first phase of this program revealed substantial variations between participating models and the pervasive inability of the models to capture the SST anomalies over equatorial upwelling regions and at high-latitude sites in the North Atlantic. The second phase, PlioMIP2 (Haywood et al., 2016), which has only recently begun, considerably revises the boundary conditions that are to be used with coupled-climate models, especially in high-latitude regions. The set of PlioMIP2 experiments which have been proposed will facilitate the attribution of the total warming to that arising from changes in (i) atmospheric CO2, (ii) orography and (iii) sea-ice extent, using the factor analysis methodology of Lunt et al., 2012. We have performed several very long, high-quality climate simulations from the PlioMIP2 set using the fully-coupled CCSM4/CESM1 model. We present our analysis of the mid-Pliocene climate based upon the results of these simulations and draw special attention to the extent of polar-amplification, the temperature pattern in the equatorial pacific and the existence and character of ENSO. In order to assess the regional and global impact of the new boundary conditions, our results are compared to the CCSM4 climate obtained using boundary conditions from the first phase of PlioMIP (Rosenbloom et al., 2013), to the PRISM3 (Dowsett et al., 2010) estimates for mid-Pliocene SST (relevant for the time-interval of study in PlioMIP), and to our own compilation of SST estimates for the time interval which is the focus in PlioMIP2. Dowsett et al., 2010, Stratigraphy (7) 123-129Haywood et al., 2016, CP (12) 663-675Lunt et al., 2012, EPSL (321-322) 128-138Rosenbloom et al., 2013, GMD (6) 549-561

The Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dickinson, Robert E.; Oleson, Keith; Bonan, Gordon

2006-01-01

Several multidecadal simulations have been carried out with the new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). This paper reports an analysis of the land component of these simulations. Global annual averages over land appear to be within the uncertainty of observational datasets, but the seasonal cycle over land of temperature and precipitation appears to be too weak. These departures from observations appear to be primarily a consequence of deficiencies in the simulation of the atmospheric model rather than of the land processes. High latitudes of northern winter are biased sufficiently warm to have a significant impact on themore » simulated value of global land temperature. The precipitation is approximately doubled from what it should be at some locations, and the snowpack and spring runoff are also excessive. The winter precipitation over Tibet is larger than observed. About two-thirds of this precipitation is sublimated during the winter, but what remains still produces a snowpack that is very large compared to that observed with correspondingly excessive spring runoff. A large cold anomaly over the Sahara Desert and Sahel also appears to be a consequence of a large anomaly in downward longwave radiation; low column water vapor appears to be most responsible. The modeled precipitation over the Amazon basin is low compared to that observed, the soil becomes too dry, and the temperature is too warm during the dry season.« less

Impact of revised and potential future albedo estimates on CCSM3 simulations of growing-season surface temperature fields for North America

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; David Y. Hollinger; Xiuping Li; Xindi Bain; Shiyuan. Zhong

2010-01-01

Recently published albedo research has resulted in improved growing-season albedo estimates for forest and grassland vegetation. The impact of these improved estimates on the ability of climate models to simulate growing-season surface temperature patterns is unknown. We have developed a set of current-climate surface temperature scenarios for North America using the...

Glacial inception during the late Holocene without carbon emissions from early agriculture: lessons from the stage-19 glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Ruddiman, W. F.; Tzedakis, P. C.

2013-12-01

Decreases in orbitally-forced summer insolation along with downward trends in greenhouse gases (GHG) have been precursors to incipient glaciation in the past. In the last several thousand years of the current interglacial, while summer insolation has decreased, there was a reversal of the downward trends in CH4 and CO2 concentration within the Holocene around 5,000 and 7,000 years ago. While the cause of this reversal remains unresolved, a leading hypothesis is Ruddiman's Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis that early agriculture, starting several thousand years ago, caused emissions of GHG large enough to reverse natural downward trends in CO2 and CH4 and kept Earth's climate anomalously warm, with the corollary that this may have prevented incipient glaciation during the late Holocene. Here we use the 1-degree, fully coupled Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) with climate forcings (orbital parameters and GHG) of a previous glacial inception to investigate whether glacial inception should have occurred prior to the industrial revolution if the concentrations of CH4 and CO2 had followed their natural downward trends throughout the Holocene. Tzedakis et al. [2012] show that for the previous eight interglacials, Stage 11 and Stage 19 are the best analogs of the Holocene because of their low eccentricities, and Stage 19 is a better analog than Stage 11 for the Holocene due to the in-phase relationship between obliquity and precession. Furthermore, their study suggests that 777 ka BP (777,000 years before present) is the timing of glacial inception for Stage 19, based on the occurrence of the earliest bipolar seesaw event associated with glacial melting. Not only do the orbital parameters at 777 ka BP resemble pre-industrial conditions, but the concentrations of CO2 at that time were essentially the same as their expected 'natural' pre-industrial values in the absence of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. Our multi-millennial coupled CCSM4 simulations show that the 'natural' climatic forcings (GHG, orbital parameters) during pre-industrial (corresponding here to year 1850) produce essentially the same global climate as at the glacial inception of Stage 19. The simulation of 'natural' pre-industrial climate also produces similar Northern Hemisphere permanent snow cover as at the glacial inception of Stage 19, which is almost twice as large as the permanent snow in the CCSM4 control run with observed year-1850 GHG concentrations. We also found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slows down in the simulations of the glacial inceptions and contributes to the strong cooling and growth of permanent snow cover in Northern Hemisphere polar regions. Our study provides supports for the overdue glaciation hypothesis that early agriculture may have prevented incipient glaciation during the late Holocene. Tzedakis, P. C., J. E. T. Channell, D. A. Hodell, H. F. Kleiven, and L. C. Skinner (2012), Determining the natural length of the current interglacial, Nature Geoscience, 5(2), 138-141.

A Prototype Two-Decade Fully-Coupled Fine-Resolution CCSM Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McClean, Julie L.; Bader, David C; Bryan, Frank O.

2011-01-01

A fully coupled global simulation using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) was configured using grid resolutions of 0.1{sup o} for the ocean and sea-ice, and 0.25{sup o} for the atmosphere and land, and was run under present-day greenhouse gas conditions for 20 years. It represents one of the first efforts to simulate the planetary system at such high horizontal resolution. The climatology of the circulation of the atmosphere and the upper ocean were compared with observational data and reanalysis products to identify persistent mean climate biases. Intensified and contracted polar vortices, and too cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) inmore » the subpolar and mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere were the dominant biases produced by the model. Intense category 4 cyclones formed spontaneously in the tropical North Pacific. A case study of the ocean response to one such event shows the realistic formation of a cold SST wake, mixed layer deepening, and warming below the mixed layer. Too many tropical cyclones formed in the North Pacific however, due to too high SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific. In the North Atlantic anomalously low SSTs lead to a dearth of hurricanes. Agulhas eddy pathways are more realistic than in equivalent stand-alone ocean simulations forced with atmospheric reanalysis.« less

Regional sea level variability in a high-resolution global coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palko, D.; Kirtman, B. P.

2016-12-01

The prediction of trends at regional scales is essential in order to adapt to and prepare for the effects of climate change. However, GCMs are unable to make reliable predictions at regional scales. The prediction of local sea level trends is particularly critical. The main goal of this research is to utilize high-resolution (HR) (0.1° resolution in the ocean) coupled model runs of CCSM4 to analyze regional sea surface height (SSH) trends. Unlike typical, lower resolution (1.0°) GCM runs these HR runs resolve features in the ocean, like the Gulf Stream, which may have a large effect on regional sea level. We characterize the variability of regional SSH along the Atlantic coast of the US using tide gauge observations along with fixed radiative forcing runs of CCSM4 and HR interactive ensemble runs. The interactive ensemble couples an ensemble mean atmosphere with a single ocean realization. This coupling results in a 30% decrease in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; therefore, the HR interactive ensemble is analogous to a HR hosing experiment. By characterizing the variability in these high-resolution GCM runs and observations we seek to understand what processes influence coastal SSH along the Eastern Coast of the United States and better predict future SLR.

Reemergence of sea ice cover anomalies and the role of the sea ice-albedo feedback in CCSM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deweaver, E. T.

2008-12-01

The dramatic sea ice decline of 2007 and lack of recovery in 2008 raise the question of a "tipping point" for Arctic sea ice, beyond which the transition to a seasonal sea ice state becomes abrupt and irreversible. The tipping point is essentially a "memory catastrophe", in which a dramatic loss of sea ice in one summer is "remembered" in reduced ice thickness over the winter season and leads to a comparably dramatic loss the following summer. The dominant contributor to this memory is presumably the sea ice - albedo feedback (SIAF), in which excess insolation absorbed due to low summer ice cover leads to a shorter ice growth season and hence thinner ice. While these dynamics are clearly important, they are difficult to quantify given the lack of long-term observations in the Arctic and the suddenness of the recent loss. Alternatively, we attempt to quantify the contribution of the SIAF to the year-to-year memory of sea ice cover anomalies in simulations of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under 20th century conditions. Lagged autocorrelation plots of sea ice area anomalies show that anomalies in one year tend to "reemerge" in the following year. Further experiments using a slab ocean model (SOM) are used to assess the contribution of oceanic processes to the year-to-year reemergence. This contribution is substantial, particularly in the winter season, and includes memory due to the standard mixed layer reemergence mechanism and low-frequency ocean heat transport anomalies. The contribution of the SIAF to persistence in the SOM experiment is determined through additional experiments in which the SIAF is disabled by fixing surface albedo to its climatological value regardless of sea ice concentration anomalies. SIAF causes a 50% increase in the magnitude of the anomalies but a relatively small increase in their persistence. Persistence is not dramatically increased because the enhancement of shortwave flux anomalies by SIAF is compensated by stronger turbulent heat flux losses in the cold season. The role of turbulent heat fluxes is somewhat inconsistent with the retrospective 20th century simulations from PIOMAS, in which increased insolation is balanced by longwave heat loss. By fitting the area anomaly time series for the SIAF and no-SIAF integrations to an AR1 process, the change in net feedback due to SIAF is calculated. The change in net feedback implies that SIAF increases the climate sensitivity of September sea ice to external forcing (greenhouse gas increases) by about 20%. The modest increase in sea ice sensitivity is confirmed by further climate change experiments with and without SIAF with the CCSM/SOM model. The small role for SIAF is somewhat surprising given the prevalence of "abrupt loss" events in CCSM climate change simulations. However, it is consistent with claims that the dominant factor in abrupt loss events is the sea ice thickness at the event onset.

Chebyshev collocation spectral method for one-dimensional radiative heat transfer in linearly anisotropic-scattering cylindrical medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Rui-Rui; Li, Ben-Wen

2017-03-01

In this study, the Chebyshev collocation spectral method (CCSM) is developed to solve the radiative integro-differential transfer equation (RIDTE) for one-dimensional absorbing, emitting and linearly anisotropic-scattering cylindrical medium. The general form of quadrature formulas for Chebyshev collocation points is deduced. These formulas are proved to have the same accuracy as the Gauss-Legendre quadrature formula (GLQF) for the F-function (geometric function) in the RIDTE. The explicit expressions of the Lagrange basis polynomials and the differentiation matrices for Chebyshev collocation points are also given. These expressions are necessary for solving an integro-differential equation by the CCSM. Since the integrand in the RIDTE is continuous but non-smooth, it is treated by the segments integration method (SIM). The derivative terms in the RIDTE are carried out to improve the accuracy near the origin. In this way, a fourth order accuracy is achieved by the CCSM for the RIDTE, whereas it's only a second order one by the finite difference method (FDM). Several benchmark problems (BPs) with various combinations of optical thickness, medium temperature distribution, degree of anisotropy, and scattering albedo are solved. The results show that present CCSM is efficient to obtain high accurate results, especially for the optically thin medium. The solutions rounded to seven significant digits are given in tabular form, and show excellent agreement with the published data. Finally, the solutions of RIDTE are used as benchmarks for the solution of radiative integral transfer equations (RITEs) presented by Sutton and Chen (JQSRT 84 (2004) 65-103). A non-uniform grid refined near the wall is advised to improve the accuracy of RITEs solutions.

Evaluation of the skill of North-American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Global Climate Models in predicting average and extreme precipitation and temperature over the continental USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, Louise J.; Villarini, Gabriele; Bradley, Allen A.

2016-08-01

This paper examines the forecasting skill of eight Global Climate Models from the North-American Multi-Model Ensemble project (CCSM3, CCSM4, CanCM3, CanCM4, GFDL2.1, FLORb01, GEOS5, and CFSv2) over seven major regions of the continental United States. The skill of the monthly forecasts is quantified using the mean square error skill score. This score is decomposed to assess the accuracy of the forecast in the absence of biases (potential skill) and in the presence of conditional (slope reliability) and unconditional (standardized mean error) biases. We summarize the forecasting skill of each model according to the initialization month of the forecast and lead time, and test the models' ability to predict extended periods of extreme climate conducive to eight `billion-dollar' historical flood and drought events. Results indicate that the most skillful predictions occur at the shortest lead times and decline rapidly thereafter. Spatially, potential skill varies little, while actual model skill scores exhibit strong spatial and seasonal patterns primarily due to the unconditional biases in the models. The conditional biases vary little by model, lead time, month, or region. Overall, we find that the skill of the ensemble mean is equal to or greater than that of any of the individual models. At the seasonal scale, the drought events are better forecast than the flood events, and are predicted equally well in terms of high temperature and low precipitation. Overall, our findings provide a systematic diagnosis of the strengths and weaknesses of the eight models over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales.

Flexible Environments for Grand-Challenge Simulation in Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierrehumbert, R.; Tobis, M.; Lin, J.; Dieterich, C.; Caballero, R.

2004-12-01

Current climate models are monolithic codes, generally in Fortran, aimed at high-performance simulation of the modern climate. Though they adequately serve their designated purpose, they present major barriers to application in other problems. Tailoring them to paleoclimate of planetary simulations, for instance, takes months of work. Theoretical studies, where one may want to remove selected processes or break feedback loops, are similarly hindered. Further, current climate models are of little value in education, since the implementation of textbook concepts and equations in the code is obscured by technical detail. The Climate Systems Center at the University of Chicago seeks to overcome these limitations by bringing modern object-oriented design into the business of climate modeling. Our ultimate goal is to produce an end-to-end modeling environment capable of configuring anything from a simple single-column radiative-convective model to a full 3-D coupled climate model using a uniform, flexible interface. Technically, the modeling environment is implemented as a Python-based software component toolkit: key number-crunching procedures are implemented as discrete, compiled-language components 'glued' together and co-ordinated by Python, combining the high performance of compiled languages and the flexibility and extensibility of Python. We are incrementally working towards this final objective following a series of distinct, complementary lines. We will present an overview of these activities, including PyOM, a Python-based finite-difference ocean model allowing run-time selection of different Arakawa grids and physical parameterizations; CliMT, an atmospheric modeling toolkit providing a library of 'legacy' radiative, convective and dynamical modules which can be knitted into dynamical models, and PyCCSM, a version of NCAR's Community Climate System Model in which the coupler and run-control architecture are re-implemented in Python, augmenting its flexibility and adaptability.

A consistent prescription of stratospheric aerosol for both radiation and chemistry in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

DOE PAGES

Neely, III, Ryan Reynolds; Conley, Andrew J.; Vitt, Francis; ...

2016-07-25

Here we describe an updated parameterization for prescribing stratospheric aerosol in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM1). The need for a new parameterization is motivated by the poor response of the CESM1 (formerly referred to as the Community Climate System Model, version 4, CCSM4) simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to colossal volcanic perturbations to the stratospheric aerosol layer (such as the 1991 Pinatubo eruption or the 1883 Krakatau eruption) in comparison to observations. In particular, the scheme used in the CMIP5 simulations by CESM1 simulated a global mean surface temperature decreasemore » that was inconsistent with the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, and the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office (HADCRUT4). The new parameterization takes advantage of recent improvements in historical stratospheric aerosol databases to allow for variations in both the mass loading and size of the prescribed aerosol. An ensemble of simulations utilizing the old and new schemes shows CESM1's improved response to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. Most significantly, the new scheme more accurately simulates the temperature response of the stratosphere due to local aerosol heating. Here, results also indicate that the new scheme decreases the global mean temperature response to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption by half of the observed temperature change, and modelled climate variability precludes statements as to the significance of this change.« less

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

of the present-day Arctic atmosphere in CCSM4. J. Climate, 2676-2695. Overeem, I ., R . S. Anderson, C. W. Wobus, G. D. Clow, F. E. Urban, and N...intensity of extreme Arctic cyclones? APPROACH I am targeting these objectives through a retrospective analysis of the transient 20th century...simulations (spanning years 1850-2005) among the GCMs participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). I am including 14

Evaluation of CMIP5 models in the context of food security assessments in Sahel and Eastern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Dettinger, M. D.; Robertson, F. R.

2012-12-01

Global climate change will adversely impact agricultural production in many African countries, mainly in the Sahel region and Eastern Africa that are already considered food insecure regions. The impacts of climate change will be particularly severe in these food insecure countries due to their high dependence on domestic agriculture production, rapid population growth, and lack of technological advances. Early planning and the targeted use of resources will therefore be critical to informing and motivating climate change adaptation actions that can save lives and mitigate economic losses. We seek to use Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) global climate model projections to assess and attribute food and water security conditions in the above mentioned regions over next two decades or so. As a first order of business, however, we need to understand how the different models represent the tropical ocean response to anthropogenic warming. We pursue this question through an evaluation of the performance of eight different coupled ocean-atmosphere models under the conditions of the 'historical' experiment. The historical experiment forces the simulations with observed 1850-2005 greenhouse gas, aerosol and land cover. While all the models show substantial warming of the tropical oceans, the pattern and atmospheric response to that warming varies substantially. This analysis suggests that the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) provides the most realistic 1850-2005 changes over the Indo-Pacific. We then present initial downscaling results, based on large scale forcing from the CCSM4, combined with statistical downscaling based on a combination of monthly simulations from Community Atmopsheric Model 4 (CAM4) and observed gridded time series of African rainfall and air temperatures.

PyMCT: A Very High Level Language Coupling Tool For Climate System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobis, M.; Pierrehumbert, R. T.; Steder, M.; Jacob, R. L.

2006-12-01

At the Climate Systems Center of the University of Chicago, we have been examining strategies for applying agile programming techniques to complex high-performance modeling experiments. While the "agile" development methodology differs from a conventional requirements process and its associated milestones, the process remain a formal one. It is distinguished by continuous improvement in functionality, large numbers of small releases, extensive and ongoing testing strategies, and a strong reliance on very high level languages (VHLL). Here we report on PyMCT, which we intend as a core element in a model ensemble control superstructure. PyMCT is a set of Python bindings for MCT, the Fortran-90 based Model Coupling Toolkit, which forms the infrastructure for the inter-component communication in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). MCT provides a scalable model communication infrastructure. In order to take maximum advantage of agile software development methodologies, we exposed MCT functionality to Python, a prominent VHLL. We describe how the scalable architecture of MCT allows us to overcome the relatively weak runtime performance of Python, so that the performance of the combined system is not severely impacted. To demonstrate these advantages, we reimplemented the CCSM coupler in Python. While this alone offers no new functionality, it does provide a rigorous test of PyMCT functionality and performance. We reimplemented the CPL6 library, presenting an interesting case study of the comparison between conventional Fortran-90 programming and the higher abstraction level provided by a VHLL. The powerful abstractions provided by Python will allow much more complex experimental paradigms. In particular, we hope to build on the scriptability of our coupling strategy to enable systematic sensitivity tests. Our most ambitious objective is to combine our efforts with Bayesian inverse modeling techniques toward objective tuning at the highest level, across model architectures.

Extreme Water Levels in Bangladesh: Past Trends, Future Projections and their Impact on Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Burkart, K.; Hopson, T. M.; Simmer, C.

2014-12-01

Climate change is expected to have an impact on meteorological and therefore hydrological extremes, thereby possibly altering the vulnerability of exposed populations. Our study focuses on Bangladesh, which is particularly vulnerable to changes in extremes due to both the large population at risk, as well as geographical characteristics such as the low-rising slope of the country through which the outflow of the combined catchments of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers (GBM, ~1.75 million km2) is channeled.Time series of daily discharge and water level data for the past 100 years were analyzed with respect to trends in frequency, magnitude and duration, focusing on rare but particularly high-risk events using extreme-value theory. Mortality data is available for a five-year period (2003-2007), with a distributed lag non-linear model used to examine possible connections between extreme water levels and mortality. Then, using output from the Community Climate System Model CCSM4, projections were made regarding future flooding due to changes in precipitation intensity and frequency, while also accounting for the backwater effect of sea-level rise. For this, the upper catchment precipitation as well as monthly mean thermosteric sea-level rise at the river mouth outflow were taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5.Results show that while e.g. the mean water level did not significantly rise during the past 100 years, a change in extreme water levels can be detected. In addition, annual minimum water levels have decreased, which is of particular importance as there is a significant connection to an increase in mortality for low water levels. While mortality does not seem to increase significantly due to extreme floods, our results indicate that return levels projected for the future shift progressively, with the effect being strongest for RCP 8.5. Further measures to strengthen the resilience of the exposed population are therefore required to ensure that climate change effects do not overwhelm the population's coping capacities.

LPJ-GUESS Simulated Western North America Mid-latitude Vegetation Changes for 15-10 ka Using the CCSM3 TraCE Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2017-12-01

The period from 15-10 ka was a time of rapid vegetation changes in North America. Continental ice sheets in northern North America were receding, exposing new habitat for vegetation, and regions distant from the ice sheets experienced equally large environmental changes. Northern hemisphere temperatures during this period were increasing, promoting transitions from cold-adapted to temperate plant taxa at mid-latitudes. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide important information on vegetation responses to climate changes, including both the spatial dynamics and rates of species distribution changes over time. Paleovegetation simulations also can fill the spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation records (e.g., pollen data from lake sediments), allowing us to test hypotheses about past vegetation changes (e.g., the location of past refugia). We used the CCSM3 TraCE transient climate simulation as input for LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate vegetation changes from 15-10 ka for parts of western North America at mid-latitudes ( 35-55° N). For these simulations, LPJ-GUESS was parameterized to simulate key tree taxa for western North America (e.g., Pseudotsuga, Tsuga, Quercus, etc.). The CCSM3 TraCE transient climate simulation data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of the study area. We analyzed the simulated spatial and temporal dynamics of these taxa and compared the simulated changes with observed paleovegetation changes recorded in pollen and plant macrofossil data (e.g., data from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database). In general, the LPJ-GUESS simulations reproduce the general patterns of paleovegetation responses to climate change, although the timing of some simulated vegetation changes do not match the observed paleovegetation record. We describe the areas and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of the simulated climate and vegetation data. The magnitude and rate of the simulated past vegetation changes are compared with projected future vegetation changes for the region.

CIM-EARTH: Community Integrated Model of Economic and Resource Trajectories for Humankind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, I.; Elliott, J.; Munson, T.; Judd, K.; Moyer, E. J.; Sanstad, A. H.

2010-12-01

We report here on the development of an open source software framework termed CIM-EARTH that is intended to aid decision-making in climate and energy policy. Numerical modeling in support of evaluating policies to address climate change is difficult not only because of inherent uncertainties but because of the differences in scale and modeling approach required for various subcomponents of the system. Economic and climate models are structured quite differently, and while climate forcing can be assumed to be roughly global, climate impacts and the human response to them occur on small spatial scales. Mitigation policies likewise can be applied on scales ranging from the better part of a continent (e.g. a carbon cap-and-trade program for the entire U.S.) to a few hundred km (e.g. statewide renewable portfolio standards and local gasoline taxes). Both spatial and time resolution requirements can be challenging for global economic models. CIM-EARTH is a modular framework based around dynamic general equilibrium models. It is designed as a community tool that will enable study of the environmental benefits, transition costs, capitalization effects, and other consequences of both mitigation policies and unchecked climate change. Modularity enables both integration of highly resolved component sub-models for energy and other key systems and also user-directed choice of tradeoffs between e.g. spatial, sectoral, and time resolution. This poster describes the framework architecture, the current realized version, and plans for future releases. As with other open-source models familiar to the climate community (e.g. CCSM), deliverables will be made publicly available on a regular schedule, and community input is solicited for development of new features and modules.

A global model simulation for 3-D radiative transfer impact on surface hydrology over the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, W. -L.; Gu, Y.; Liou, K. N.

2015-05-19

We investigate 3-D mountain effects on solar flux distributions and their impact on surface hydrology over the western United States, specifically the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada, using the global CCSM4 (Community Climate System Model version 4; Community Atmosphere Model/Community Land Model – CAM4/CLM4) with a 0.23° × 0.31° resolution for simulations over 6 years. In a 3-D radiative transfer parameterization, we have updated surface topography data from a resolution of 1 km to 90 m to improve parameterization accuracy. In addition, we have also modified the upward-flux deviation (3-D–PP (plane-parallel)) adjustment to ensure that the energy balance atmore » the surface is conserved in global climate simulations based on 3-D radiation parameterization. We show that deviations in the net surface fluxes are not only affected by 3-D mountains but also influenced by feedbacks of cloud and snow in association with the long-term simulations. Deviations in sensible heat and surface temperature generally follow the patterns of net surface solar flux. The monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) deviations show an increase in lower elevations due to reduced snowmelt, leading to a reduction in cumulative runoff. Over higher-elevation areas, negative SWE deviations are found because of increased solar radiation available at the surface. Simulated precipitation increases for lower elevations, while it decreases for higher elevations, with a minimum in April. Liquid runoff significantly decreases at higher elevations after April due to reduced SWE and precipitation.« less

Improved atmosphere-ocean coupled modeling in the tropics for climate prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Minghua

2015-01-01

We investigated the initial development of the double ITCZ in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM Version 3) in the central Pacific. Starting from a resting initial condition of the ocean in January, the model developed a warm bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the central Pacific from 5oS to 10oS in the first three months. We found this initial bias to be caused by excessive surface shortwave radiation that is also present in the standalone atmospheric model. The initial bias is further amplified by biases in both surface latent heat flux and horizontal heat transport in the upper ocean.more » These biases are caused by the responses of surface winds to SST bias and the thermocline structure to surface wind curls. We also showed that the warming biases in surface solar radiation and latent heat fluxes are seasonally offset by cooling biases from reduced solar radiation after the austral summer due to cloud responses and in the austral fall due to enhanced evaporation when the maximum SST is closest to the equator. The warming biases from the dynamic heat transport by ocean currents however stay throughout all seasons once they are developed, which are eventually balanced by enhanced energy exchange and penetration of solar radiation below the mixed layer. Our results also showed that the equatorial cold tongue develops after the warm biases in the south central Pacific, and the overestimation of surface shortwave radiation recurs in the austral summer in each year.« less

Weighting of NMME temperature and precipitation forecasts across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, Louise J.; Villarini, Gabriele; Bradley, A. Allen

2017-09-01

Multi-model ensemble forecasts are obtained by weighting multiple General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to heighten forecast skill and reduce uncertainties. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project facilitates the development of such multi-model forecasting schemes by providing publicly-available hindcasts and forecasts online. Here, temperature and precipitation forecasts are enhanced by leveraging the strengths of eight NMME GCMs (CCSM3, CCSM4, CanCM3, CanCM4, CFSv2, GEOS5, GFDL2.1, and FLORb01) across all forecast months and lead times, for four broad climatic European regions: Temperate, Mediterranean, Humid-Continental and Subarctic-Polar. We compare five different approaches to multi-model weighting based on the equally weighted eight single-model ensembles (EW-8), Bayesian updating (BU) of the eight single-model ensembles (BU-8), BU of the 94 model members (BU-94), BU of the principal components of the eight single-model ensembles (BU-PCA-8) and BU of the principal components of the 94 model members (BU-PCA-94). We assess the forecasting skill of these five multi-models and evaluate their ability to predict some of the costliest historical droughts and floods in recent decades. Results indicate that the simplest approach based on EW-8 preserves model skill, but has considerable biases. The BU and BU-PCA approaches reduce the unconditional biases and negative skill in the forecasts considerably, but they can also sometimes diminish the positive skill in the original forecasts. The BU-PCA models tend to produce lower conditional biases than the BU models and have more homogeneous skill than the other multi-models, but with some loss of skill. The use of 94 NMME model members does not present significant benefits over the use of the 8 single model ensembles. These findings may provide valuable insights for the development of skillful, operational multi-model forecasting systems.

Modeling the Pineapple Express phenomenon via Multivariate Extreme Value Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, G.; Cooley, D. S.

2011-12-01

The pineapple express (PE) phenomenon is responsible for producing extreme winter precipitation events in the coastal and mountainous regions of the western United States. Because the PE phenomenon is also associated with warm temperatures, the heavy precipitation and associated snowmelt can cause destructive flooding. In order to study impacts, it is important that regional climate models from NARCCAP are able to reproduce extreme precipitation events produced by PE. We define a daily precipitation quantity which captures the spatial extent and intensity of precipitation events produced by the PE phenomenon. We then use statistical extreme value theory to model the tail dependence of this quantity as seen in an observational data set and each of the six NARCCAP regional models driven by NCEP reanalysis. We find that most NCEP-driven NARCCAP models do exhibit tail dependence between daily model output and observations. Furthermore, we find that not all extreme precipitation events are pineapple express events, as identified by Dettinger et al. (2011). The synoptic-scale atmospheric processes that drive extreme precipitation events produced by PE have only recently begun to be examined. Much of the current work has focused on pattern recognition, rather than quantitative analysis. We use daily mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields from NCEP to develop a "pineapple express index" for extreme precipitation, which exhibits tail dependence with our observed precipitation quantity for pineapple express events. We build a statistical model that connects daily precipitation output from the WRFG model, daily MSLP fields from NCEP, and daily observed precipitation in the western US. Finally, we use this model to simulate future observed precipitation based on WRFG output driven by the CCSM model, and our pineapple express index derived from future CCSM output. Our aim is to use this model to develop a better understanding of the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events produced by PE under climate change.

How will climate change affect watershed mercury export in a representative Coastal Plain watershed?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golden, H. E.; Knightes, C. D.; Conrads, P. A.; Feaster, T.; Davis, G. M.; Benedict, S. T.; Bradley, P. M.

2012-12-01

Future climate change is expected to drive variations in watershed hydrological processes and water quality across a wide range of physiographic provinces, ecosystems, and spatial scales. How such shifts in climatic conditions will impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and hydrologically-driven Hg transport is a significant concern. We simulate the responses of watershed hydrological and total Hg (HgT) fluxes and concentrations to a unified set of past and future climate change projections in a Coastal Plain basin using multiple watershed models. We use two statistically downscaled global precipitation and temperature models, ECHO, a hybrid of the ECHAM4 and HOPE-G models, and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) across two thirty-year simulations (1980 to 2010 and 2040 to 2070). We apply three watershed models to quantify and bracket potential changes in hydrologic and HgT fluxes, including the Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessment Model for Hg (VELMA-Hg), the Grid Based Mercury Model (GBMM), and TOPLOAD, a water quality constituent model linked to TOPMODEL hydrological simulations. We estimate a decrease in average annual HgT fluxes in response to climate change using the ECHO projections and an increase with the CCSM3 projections in the study watershed. Average monthly HgT fluxes increase using both climate change projections between in the late spring (March through May), when HgT concentrations and flow are high. Results suggest that hydrological transport associated with changes in precipitation and temperature is the primary mechanism driving HgT flux response to climate change. Our multiple model/multiple projection approach allows us to bracket the relative response of HgT fluxes to climate change, thereby illustrating the uncertainty associated with the projections. In addition, our approach allows us to examine potential variations in climate change-driven water and HgT export based on different conceptualizations of watershed HgT dynamics and the representative mathematical structures underpinning existing watershed Hg models.

Modern (1992–2011) and projected (2012–99) peak snowpack and May–July runoff for the Fort Peck Lake and Lake Sakakawea watersheds in the Upper Missouri River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamm, John F.; Todey, Dennis; Mayes Bousted, Barbara; Rossi, Shawn; Norton, Parker A.; Carter, Janet M.

2016-02-09

Annual peak snowpack was projected to have a downward trend for the Fort Peck Lake watershed and an upward trend for the lower Lake Sakakawea watershed. Projections of May–July runoff had a significant downward trend for the Fort Peck Lake, lower Lake Sakakawea, and Lake Sakakawea (combination of Fort Peck Lake and lower Lake Sakakawea) watersheds. Downward trends in projected May–July runoff indicated that power production at Fort Peck Dam might be affected particularly in the later part of the simulation (2061–99); however, confidence in projected May–July runoff for the later part of the simulation was less certain because bias-corrected air temperatures from CCSM3 and CCSM4 commonly fell outside of the observed range used for calibration. Projected May–July runoff combined for the Fort Peck Lake and lower Lake Sakakawea watersheds were on the order of magnitude of the 2011 flood for 1 simulation year for each of the CCSM-based simulations. High peak snowpack and precipitation in April, May, and June in the plains was associated with large May–July runoff events; therefore, high precipitation at lower elevations in the Fort Peck Lake and lower Lake Sakakawea watersheds was a factor in the simulation of extreme runoff events at the magnitude of the 2011 flood.

The structure and large-scale organization of extreme cold waves over the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Zuowei; Black, Robert X.; Deng, Yi

2017-12-01

Extreme cold waves (ECWs) occurring over the conterminous United States (US) are studied through a systematic identification and documentation of their local synoptic structures, associated large-scale meteorological patterns (LMPs), and forcing mechanisms external to the US. Focusing on the boreal cool season (November-March) for 1950‒2005, a hierarchical cluster analysis identifies three ECW patterns, respectively characterized by cold surface air temperature anomalies over the upper midwest (UM), northwestern (NW), and southeastern (SE) US. Locally, ECWs are synoptically organized by anomalous high pressure and northerly flow. At larger scales, the UM LMP features a zonal dipole in the mid-tropospheric height field over North America, while the NW and SE LMPs each include a zonal wave train extending from the North Pacific across North America into the North Atlantic. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) in general simulates the three ECW patterns quite well and successfully reproduces the observed enhancements in the frequency of their associated LMPs. La Niña and the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) favor the occurrence of NW ECWs, while the warm PDO phase, low Arctic sea ice extent and high Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) are associated with elevated SE-ECW frequency. Additionally, high Eurasian SCE is linked to increases in the occurrence likelihood of UM ECWs.

North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cerovecki, Ivana; McClean, Julie; Koracin, Darko

2014-11-14

The overall objective of this study was to improve the representation of regional ocean circulation in the North Pacific by using high resolution atmospheric forcing that accurately represents mesoscale processes in ocean-atmosphere regional (North Pacific) model configuration. The goal was to assess the importance of accurate representation of mesoscale processes in the atmosphere and the ocean on large scale circulation. This is an important question, as mesoscale processes in the atmosphere which are resolved by the high resolution mesoscale atmospheric models such as Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), are absent in commonly used atmospheric forcing such as CORE forcing, employedmore » in e.g. the Community Climate System Model (CCSM).« less

Towards the Prediction of Decadal to Centennial Climate Processes in the Coupled Earth System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Zhengyu; Kutzbach, J.; Jacob, R.

2011-12-05

In this proposal, we have made major advances in the understanding of decadal and long term climate variability. (a) We performed a systematic study of multidecadal climate variability in FOAM-LPJ and CCSM-T31, and are starting exploring decadal variability in the IPCC AR4 models. (b) We develop several novel methods for the assessment of climate feedbacks in the observation. (c) We also developed a new initialization scheme DAI (Dynamical Analogue Initialization) for ensemble decadal prediction. (d) We also studied climate-vegetation feedback in the observation and models. (e) Finally, we started a pilot program using Ensemble Kalman Filter in CGCM for decadalmore » climate prediction.« less

Influence of Decadal Variability of Global Oceans on South Asian Monsoon and ENSO-Monsoon Relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurthy, Lakshmi

This study has investigated the influence of the decadal variability associated with global oceans on South Asian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relation. The results are based on observational analysis using long records of monsoon rainfall and circulation and coupled general circulation model experiments using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 4 model. The multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) of the observed rainfall over India yields three decadal modes. The first mode (52 year period) is associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the second one (21 year) with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the third mode (13 year) with the Atlantic tripole. The existence of these decadal modes in the monsoon was also found in the control simulation of NCAR CCSM4. The regionally de-coupled model experiments performed to isolate the influence of North Pacific and North Atlantic also substantiate the above results. The relation between the decadal modes in the monsoon rainfall with the known decadal modes in global SST is examined. The PDO has significant negative correlation with the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR). The mechanism for PDO-monsoon relation is hypothesized through the seasonal footprinting mechanism and further through Walker and Hadley circulations. The model results also confirm the negative correlation between PDO and IMR and the mechanism through which PDO influences monsoon. Both observational and model analysis show that droughts (floods) are more likely over India than floods (droughts) when ENSO and PDO are in their warm (cold) phase. This study emphasizes the importance of carefully distinguishing the different decadal modes in the SST in the North Atlantic Ocean as they have different impacts on the monsoon. The AMO exhibits significant positive correlation with the IMR while the Atlantic tripole has significant negative correlation with the IMR. The AMO influences the Indian monsoon through atmospheric winds related to high summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode leading to enhanced moisture flow over the Indian subcontinent. The Atlantic tripole mode affects the rainfall over India by enhancing the moisture flow through the equatorial westerly winds associated with the NAO. The model also simulates the positive and negative relation of AMO and tripole, respectively, with the monsoon rainfall. The model also indicates the enhanced moisture flow over India related to the positive phase of AMO through the equatorial westerly flow. But, for the tripole mode, the model indicates flow of moisture through the Bay of Bengal in contrast to observations where it is through the Arabian Sea. The reason for the absence of decadal mode in IMR inherent to the Indian Ocean is also explored. The SSA on dipole mode index (DMI) index reveals three modes. The first two modes are related to the biennial and canonical ENSO at interannual timescale while the third mode varies on decadal timescale and is related to PDO. The wind regression pattern associated with the PDO-IOD mode shows northeasterly winds enhancing the southeasterly flow from the southeastern Indian Ocean related to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode. The model also shows the influence of canonical ENSO and PDO influence on IOD, although the variance explained by PDO mode is lower in the model relative to observations.

The impact of SciDAC on US climate change research and the IPCCAR4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wehner, Michael

2005-07-08

SciDAC has invested heavily in climate change research. We offer a candid opinion as to the impact of the DOE laboratories' SciDAC projects on the upcoming Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a result of the direct importance of climate change to society, climate change research is highly coordinated at the international level. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is charged with providing regular reports on the state of climate change research to government policymakers. These reports are the product of thousands of scientists efforts. A series of reviews involving both scientists and policymakersmore » make them among the most reviewed documents produced in any scientific field. The high profile of these reports acts a driver to many researchers in the climate sciences. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is scheduled to be released in 2007. SciDAC sponsored research has enabled the United States climate modeling community to make significant contributions to this report. Two large multi-Laboratory SciDAC projects are directly relevant to the activities of the IPCC. The first, entitled ''Collaborative Design and Development of the Community Climate System Model for Terascale Computers'', has made important software contributions to the recently released third version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.0) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This is a multi-institutional project involving Los Alamos National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The original principal investigators were Robert Malone and John B. Drake. The current principal investigators are Phil Jones and John B. Drake. The second project, entitled ''Earth System Grid II: Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources'' aims to facilitate the distribution of the copious amounts of data produced by coupled climate model integrations to the general scientific community. This is also a multi-institutional project involving Argonne National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The principal investigators are Ian Foster, Don Middleton and Dean Williams. Perhaps most significant among the activities of the ''Collaborative Design'', project was the development of an efficient multi-processor coupling package. CCSM3.0 is an extraordinarily complicated physics code. The fully coupled model consists of separate submodels of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land. In addition, comprehensive biogeochemistry and atmospheric chemistry submodels are under intensive current development. Each of these submodels is a large and sophisticated program in its own right. Furthermore, in the coupled model, each of the submodels, including the coupler, is a separate multiprocessor executable program. The coupler package must efficiently coordinate the communication as well as interpolate or aggregate information between these programs. This regridding function is necessary because each major subsystem (air, water or surface) is allowed to have its own independent grid.« less

Towards a physical understanding of stratospheric cooling under global warming through a process-based decomposition method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Ren, R.-C.; Cai, Ming

2016-12-01

The stratosphere has been cooling under global warming, the causes of which are not yet well understood. This study applied a process-based decomposition method (CFRAM; Coupled Surface-Atmosphere Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method) to the simulation results of a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) model (CCSM4; Community Climate System Model, version 4), to demonstrate the responsible radiative and non-radiative processes involved in the stratospheric cooling. By focusing on the long-term stratospheric temperature changes between the "historical run" and the 8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario, this study demonstrates that the changes of radiative radiation due to CO2, ozone and water vapor are the main divers of stratospheric cooling in both winter and summer. They contribute to the cooling changes by reducing the net radiative energy (mainly downward radiation) received by the stratospheric layer. In terms of the global average, their contributions are around -5, -1.5, and -1 K, respectively. However, the observed stratospheric cooling is much weaker than the cooling by radiative processes. It is because changes in atmospheric dynamic processes act to strongly mitigate the radiative cooling by yielding a roughly 4 K warming on the global average base. In particular, the much stronger/weaker dynamic warming in the northern/southern winter extratropics is associated with an increase of the planetary-wave activity in the northern winter, but a slight decrease in the southern winter hemisphere, under global warming. More importantly, although radiative processes dominate the stratospheric cooling, the spatial patterns are largely determined by the non-radiative effects of dynamic processes.

The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET): Scaling the Earth System Grid to Petascale Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2007-09-27

This report, which summarizes work carried out by the ESG-CET during the period April 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007, includes discussion of overall progress, period goals, highlights, collaborations and presentations. To learn more about our project, please visit the Earth System Grid website. In addition, this report will be forwarded to the DOE SciDAC project management, the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) project management, national and international stakeholders (e.g., the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES), etc.), and collaborators. Themore » ESG-CET executive committee consists of David Bernholdt, ORNL; Ian Foster, ANL; Don Middleton, NCAR; and Dean Williams, LLNL. The ESG-CET team is a collective of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge, whose home institutions include seven laboratories (ANL, LANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, ORNL, PMEL) and one university (ISI/USC); all work in close collaboration with the project's stakeholders and domain researchers and scientists. During this semi-annual reporting period, the ESG-CET increased its efforts on completing requirement documents, framework design, and component prototyping. As we strove to complete and expand the overall ESG-CET architectural plans and use-case scenarios to fit our constituency's scope of use, we continued to provide production-level services to the community. These services continued for IPCC AR4, CCES, and CCSM, and were extended to include Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) data.« less

Comparison of multi-proxy data with past1000 model output over the Terminal Classic Period (800-1000 A.D.) on the Yucatan Peninsula.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Pelt, S.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Allen, D. M.

2015-12-01

The decline of the Mayan Civilization is thought to be caused by a series of droughts that affected the Yucatan Peninsula during the Terminal Classic Period (T.C.P.) 800-1000 AD. The goals of this study are two-fold: (a) to compare paleo-model simulations of the past 1000 years with a compilation of multiple proxies of changes in moisture conditions for the Yucatan Peninsula during the T.C.P. and (b) to use this comparison to inform the modeling of groundwater recharge in this region, with a focus on generating the daily climate data series needed as input to a groundwater recharge model. To achieve the first objective, we compiled a dataset of 5 proxies from seven locations across the Yucatan Peninsula, to be compared with temperature and precipitation output from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4), which is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) past1000 experiment. The proxy dataset includes oxygen isotopes from speleothems and gastropod/ostrocod shells (11 records); and sediment density, mineralogy, and magnetic susceptibility records from lake sediment cores (3 records). The proxy dataset is supplemented by a compilation of reconstructed temperatures using pollen and tree ring records for North America (archived in the PAGES2k global network data). Our preliminary analysis suggests that many of these datasets show evidence of drier and warmer climate on the Yucatan Peninsula around the T.C.P. when compared to modern conditions, although the amplitude and timing of individual warming and drying events varies between sites. This comparison with modeled output will ultimately be used to inform backward shift factors that will be input to a stochastic weather generator. These shift factors will be based on monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and applied to a modern daily climate time series for the Yucatan Peninsula to produce a daily climate time series for the T.C.P.

Snow Climatology of Arctic Sea Ice: Comparison of Reanalysis and Climate Model Data with In Situ Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevooruvalappil Chandran, B.; Pittana, M.; Haas, C.

2015-12-01

Snow on sea ice is a critical and complex factor influencing sea ice processes. Deep snow with a high albedo and low thermal conductivity inhibits ice growth in winter and minimizes ice loss in summer. Very shallow or absent snow promotes ice growth in winter and ice loss in summer. The timing of snow ablation critically impacts summer sea ice mass balance. Here we assess the accuracy of various snow on sea ice data products from reanalysis and modeling comparing them with in situ measurements. The latter are based on the Warren et al. (1999) monthly climatology derived from snow ruler measurements between 1954-1991, and on daily snow depth retrievals from few drifting ice mass balance buoys (IMB) with sufficiently long observations spanning the summer season. These were compared with snow depth data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP), the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4), and the Canadian Earth System Model 2 (CanESM2). Results are quite variable in different years and regions. However, there is often good agreement between CanESM2 and IMB snow depth during the winter accumulation and spring melt periods. Regional analyses show that over the western Arctic covered primarily with multiyear ice NCEP snow depths are in good agreement with the Warren climatology while CCSM4 overestimates snow depth. However, in the Eastern Arctic which is dominated by first-year ice the opposite behavior is observed. Compared to the Warren climatology CanESM2 underestimates snow depth in all regions. Differences between different snow depth products are as large as 10 to 20 cm, with large consequences for the sea ice mass balance. However, it is also very difficult to evaluate the accuracy of reanalysis and model snow depths due to a lack of extensive, continuous in situ measurements.

Studying the impact of climate change on flooding in large river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Hopson, T.; Gilleland, E.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Hu, A.; Simmer, C.

2012-04-01

Assessing the potential impact of global climate change on hydrological extremes becomes crucial for regions such as Bangladesh, where a high population density results in a large exposure to risks associated with extreme flooding. In addition, low-lying countries such as Bangladesh are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise and its influence on present-day flood characteristics. By combining the impact of climate change on upper catchment precipitation as well as on sea-level rise at the river mouths, we attempt to analyze the development of flood characteristics such as frequency and magnitude in large river basins. Since flood duration is also of great importance to people exposed to flooding, the development of the number of days with extreme flooding is evaluated for possible trends in the future. Data used includes historical observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre, while recently released model output for upper catchment precipitation and annual mean thermosteric sea-level rise is taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members, as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the reference concentration pathway scenarios RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6. A peak-over-threshold approach is used to quantify the expected future changes in flood return levels, where discharge exceedances over a certain threshold are fit to a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Return levels are compared from both 20th century and future model simulations for time slices at 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. It can be seen that return periods of flood events decrease as the 21st century progresses in all RCP scenarios, with this shift most pronounced in RCP 8.5. The evaluation of flood duration, or the number of days with discharges above a certain threshold, yields an increase. While the number of days with flooding increases in all RCP scenarios, with the largest increase seen at the end of the 21st century, this increase is only statistically significant for RCP 8.5. Finally, we study how sea-level rise governs the flooding behavior further upstream by calculating the effective additional discharge due to the backwater effect of sea-level rise. Sea-level rise anomalies for the 21st century are taken from CCSM4 model output at each of the river mouths. Judging from our work, the increase in effective discharge due to sea-level rise cannot be neglected when discussing flooding in the respective river basins. Impact of sea-level rise on changes in return levels will be investigated further by using extreme-value theory to calculate how the tails of the current river discharge distribution will be shifted by changing climate.

Three types of Indian Ocean Basin modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Feiyan; Liu, Qinyu; Yang, Jianling; Fan, Lei

2017-04-01

The persistence of the Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) from March to August is important for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon. Based on the observational data and the pre-industrial control run outputs of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), the IOBM is categorized into three types: the first type can persist until August; the second type transforms from the positive (negative) IOBM into the negative (positive) Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM), accompanied by the El Niño-to-La Niña (La Niña-to-El Niño) transition in the boreal summer; the third type transforms from the positive (negative) IOBM into the positive (negative) IODM in early summer. It is discovered that aside from the influence of anomalous Walker Circulation resulted from the phase transition of ENSO, the persistence of Australia high anomaly (AHA) over the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the west of Australia from March to May is favorable for the positive (negative) IOBM transformation into the positive (negative) IODM in the boreal summer. The stronger equatorially asymmetric sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the boreal spring are the main mechanism for the persistence of IOBM, because the asymmetric atmospheric responses to the stronger equatorially asymmetric SSTAs in the TIO confine the AHA to the east of Australia from May to August. This result indicates a possibility of predicting summer atmospheric circulation based on the equatorial symmetry of SSTAs in the TIO in spring.

The effect of the MJO on the energetics of El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lybarger, Nicholas D.; Stan, Cristiana

2017-12-01

The energy budget of the Pacific Ocean is evaluated in the Super-Parameterized Community Climate Model version 4 (SP-CCSM4) on intraseasonal time scales. The budget terms are decomposed to isolate the MJO influence and the ocean current associated with Kelvin waves. Using this decomposition, one can distinguish between El Niño events with strong and weak MJO influence. Composites of El Niño events based on the wind power component associated with the MJO induced wind stress and oceanic Kelvin waves ({{W}_{{MJO},{K}}} ) are compared with composites based only on the atmospheric variability and based only on the oceanic variability. It was found that the composite of events when {{W}_{{MJO},{K}}} is near maximum (+ NMJO,K) shows a greater magnitude of mean perturbation wind power, buoyancy power, and available potential energy than any other case, which is consistent with the greater amplitude Kelvin wave perturbations on the thermocline, as well as the greater amplitude of SST anomalies at the peak of the event. For + NMJO,K, latent heat flux anomalies out of the ocean along the coast of New Guinea are seen coincident with deepening of the mixed layer depth there, suggesting that this is an important region for the thermodynamic influence of the MJO on the ocean. Latent heat flux anomalies into the ocean are seen across the ITCZ in the spring, suggesting a basin wide influence by the MJO on the ocean surface radiation budget in + NMJO,K.

Great Plains Drought in Simulations of Twentieth Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCrary, R. R.; Randall, D. A.

2008-12-01

The Great Plains region of the United States was influenced by a number of multi-year droughts during the twentieth century. Most notable were the "Dust Bowl" drought of the 1930s and the 1950s Great Plains drought. In this study we evaluate the ability of three of the Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCMs) used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC to simulate Great Plains drought with the same frequency and intensity as was observed during the twentieth century. The models chosen for this study are: GFDL CM 2.0, NCAR CCSM3, and UKMO HadCM3. We find that the models accurately capture the climatology of the hydrologic cycle of the Great Plains, but that they tend to overestimate the variability in Great Plains precipitation. We also find that in each model simulation at least one long-term drought occurs over the Great Plains region during their representations 20th Century Climate. The multi-year droughts produced by the models exhibit similar magnitudes and spatial scales as was observed during the twentieth century. This study also investigates the relative roles that external forcing from the tropical Pacific and local feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere have in the initiation and perpetuation of Great Plains drought in each model. We find that cool, La Nina-like conditions in the tropical pacific are often associated with long-term drought conditions over the Great Plains in GFDL CM 2.0 and UKMO HadCM3, but there appears to be no systematic relationship between tropical Pacific SST variability and Great Plains drought in CCSM3. It is possible the strong coupling between the land surface and the atmosphere in the NCAR model causes precipitation anomalies to lock into phase over the Great Plains thereby perpetuating drought conditions. Results from this study are intended to help assess whether or not these climate models are credible for use in the assessment of future drought over the Great Plains region of the United States.

Global vegetation productivity response to climatic oscillations during the satellite era.

PubMed

Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Lombardozzi, Danica

2016-10-01

Climate control on global vegetation productivity patterns has intensified in response to recent global warming. Yet, the contributions of the leading internal climatic variations to global vegetation productivity are poorly understood. Here, we use 30 years of global satellite observations to study climatic variations controls on continental and global vegetation productivity patterns. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (La Niña, neutral, and El Niño years) appear to be a weaker control on global-scale vegetation productivity than previously thought, although continental-scale responses are substantial. There is also clear evidence that other non-ENSO climatic variations have a strong control on spatial patterns of vegetation productivity mainly through their influence on temperature. Among the eight leading internal climatic variations, the East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern extensively controls the ensuing year vegetation productivity of the most productive tropical and temperate forest ecosystems of the Earth's vegetated surface through directionally consistent influence on vegetation greenness. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations do not capture the observed patterns of vegetation productivity responses to internal climatic variations. Our analyses show the ubiquitous control of climatic variations on vegetation productivity and can further guide CCSM and other Earth system models developments to represent vegetation response patterns to unforced variability. Several winter time internal climatic variation indices show strong potentials on predicting growing season vegetation productivity two to six seasons ahead which enables national governments and farmers forecast crop yield to ensure supplies of affordable food, famine early warning, and plan management options to minimize yield losses ahead of time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future Projections from the Effects of Heat Stress on Livestock: for the US and New England Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCabe, E.; Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.; Krishnan, S.

2015-12-01

Future climate change will result in variations in heat stress experienced by livestock, which will consequently impact health, well-being, and yield. In this study, we estimate future yield changes for livestock due to heat stress in New England. We use the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), a component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that is developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The simulation uses RCP8.5 boundary conditions, and is driven by CCSM4 atmospheric forcing from the CMIP5 archive, that conducts simulations of the past and next century. Heat stress metrics are calculated using the HumanIndexMod in CLM4.5 for the early and late 21st century. For example, the humidity index for comfort and physiology, wet bulb temperature and swamp cooler efficiency. Results indicate that in the New England Region, temperatures will increase by 4 °C and in New Hampshire specifically by 3 °C. Temperature humidity index for comfort and physiology, swamp cooler efficiency and wet bulb are all projected to rise by the end of the century. While it is obvious that these elevations in temperature will have a negative effect on animals inhibiting their performance and output, our analysis also emphasizes the role of changes in humidity in heat stress. We show that heat stress caused by temperature and humidity increases, will decrease overall production yield for dairy and beef cattle, sows, finishing hogs and poultry, as a result of heat stress and other major climatic factors. We estimate and discuss resulting economic losses for the livestock industries and the impact in the United States and New England Region.

Tide, Ocean and Climate on Exoplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Si, Y.; Yang, J.

2017-12-01

On Earth, tide is a main part of the driving force for the deep ocean overturning circulation. For habitable planets around low-mass stars, the tidal force is expected to be much stronger than that on Earth, due to the fact that the habitable zone is very close to the host stars and that tide force is inversely proportional to the orbital distance cubed. The deep ocean overturning circulation on this type of planets is therefore expected to be much stronger than that on Earth, if all else being equal. We test this hypothesis using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model, the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Our results show that the intensity of oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is approximately proportional to κ1/3, where κ is the mixing coefficient across density interfaces and it is mainly determined by the strength of the tidal force. As a result of the enhanced MOC, more heat is transported to dark regions and sea ice melts completely there, and meanwhile more heat is mixed from the surface to the deep ocean and thereby the entire ocean becomes much warmer (Fig. 1). A positive cloud feedback further warms the global ocean and atmosphere. These results imply that one planet with a stronger tidal force will likely enter a globally ice-covered snowball state at a lower stellar flux and enter a moist greenhouse or runaway greenhouse state at also a lower stellar flux, meaning that the tidal force acts to push the habitable zone outward. This study significantly improves our understanding of the possible coupling between planetary orbit, ocean, climate, and habitability on exoplanets.

The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M - Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iversen, T.; Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B.; Kirkevåg, A.; Seland, Ø.; Drange, H.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Medhaug, I.; Sand, M.; Seierstad, I. A.

2013-03-01

NorESM is a generic name of the Norwegian earth system model. The first version is named NorESM1, and has been applied with medium spatial resolution to provide results for CMIP5 (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html) without (NorESM1-M) and with (NorESM1-ME) interactive carbon-cycling. Together with the accompanying paper by Bentsen et al. (2012), this paper documents that the core version NorESM1-M is a valuable global climate model for research and for providing complementary results to the evaluation of possible anthropogenic climate change. NorESM1-M is based on the model CCSM4 operated at NCAR, but the ocean model is replaced by a modified version of MICOM and the atmospheric model is extended with online calculations of aerosols, their direct effect and their indirect effect on warm clouds. Model validation is presented in the companion paper (Bentsen et al., 2012). NorESM1-M is estimated to have equilibrium climate sensitivity of ca. 2.9 K and a transient climate response of ca. 1.4 K. This sensitivity is in the lower range amongst the models contributing to CMIP5. Cloud feedbacks dampen the response, and a strong AMOC reduces the heat fraction available for increasing near-surface temperatures, for evaporation and for melting ice. The future projections based on RCP scenarios yield a global surface air temperature increase of almost one standard deviation lower than a 15-model average. Summer sea-ice is projected to decrease considerably by 2100 and disappear completely for RCP8.5. The AMOC is projected to decrease by 12%, 15-17%, and 32% for the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Precipitation is projected to increase in the tropics, decrease in the subtropics and in southern parts of the northern extra-tropics during summer, and otherwise increase in most of the extra-tropics. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle indicate that precipitation events over continents will become more intense and dry spells more frequent. Extra-tropical storminess in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to shift northwards. There are indications of more frequent occurrence of spring and summer blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector, while the amplitude of ENSO events weakens although they tend to appear more frequently. These indications are uncertain because of biases in the model's representation of present-day conditions. Positive phase PNA and negative phase NAO both appear less frequently under the RCP8.5 scenario, but also this result is considered uncertain. Single-forcing experiments indicate that aerosols and greenhouse gases produce similar geographical patterns of response for near-surface temperature and precipitation. These patterns tend to have opposite signs, although with important exceptions for precipitation at low latitudes. The asymmetric aerosol effects between the two hemispheres lead to a southward displacement of ITCZ. Both forcing agents, thus, tend to reduce Northern Hemispheric subtropical precipitation.

The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP): A Model-Data Comparison System for Evaluation of Coupled Biosphere-Atmosphere Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, Jim; Thornton, Peter E

2009-01-01

The need to capture important climate feebacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in new efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, now often referred to as Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results, suggesting that a more rigorous set of offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are warranted. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) providesmore » a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). C-LAMP provides feedback to the modeling community regarding model improvements and to the measurement community by suggesting new observational campaigns. C-LAMP Experiment 1 consists of a set of uncoupled simulations of terrestrial carbon models specifically designed to examine the ability of the models to reproduce surface carbon and energy fluxes at multiple sites and to exhibit the influence of climate variability, prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), nitrogen (N) deposition, and land cover change on projections of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 20th century. Experiment 2 consists of partially coupled simulations of the terrestrial carbon model with an active atmosphere model exchanging energy and moisture fluxes. In all experiments, atmospheric CO{sub 2} follows the prescribed historical trajectory from C{sup 4}MIP. In Experiment 2, the atmosphere model is forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and corresponding sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre; prescribed CO{sub 2} is radiatively active; and land, fossil fuel, and ocean CO{sub 2} fluxes are advected by the model. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3) in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): The CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons against Ameriflus site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO{sub 2} Enrichment (FACE) site measurements, and other datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). The C-LAMP diagnostics package was used to validate improvements to CASA and CN for use in the next generation model, CLM4. It is hoped that this effort will serve as a prototype for an international carbon-cycle model benchmarking activity for models being used for the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. More information about C-LAMP, the experimental protocol, performance metrics, output standards, and model-data comparisons from the CLM3-CASA and CLM3-CN models are available at http://www.climatemodeling.org/c-lamp.« less

Experiences with "Acute" Food Insecurity among College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, J. Luke; Harris, Frank, III

2018-01-01

This study sought to understand which racial/ethnic student groups experience food insecurity and the extent to which other external insecurities and challenges are predictive of acute food insecurity. Data were derived from the Community College Success Measure (CCSM), an institutional needs assessment tool used by colleges to examine challenges…

CLARREO shortwave observing system simulation experiments of the twenty-first century: Simulator design and implementation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feldman, D.R.; Algieri, C.A.; Ong, J.R.

2011-04-01

Projected changes in the Earth system will likely be manifested in changes in reflected solar radiation. This paper introduces an operational Observational System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) to calculate the signals of future climate forcings and feedbacks in top-of-atmosphere reflectance spectra. The OSSE combines simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report for the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) with the MODTRAN radiative transfer code to calculate reflectance spectra for simulations of current and future climatic conditions over the 21st century. The OSSE produces narrowband reflectances and broadband fluxes, the latter of which have been extensivelymore » validated against archived CCSM results. The shortwave reflectance spectra contain atmospheric features including signals from water vapor, liquid and ice clouds, and aerosols. The spectra are also strongly influenced by the surface bidirectional reflectance properties of predicted snow and sea ice and the climatological seasonal cycles of vegetation. By comparing and contrasting simulated reflectance spectra based on emissions scenarios with increasing projected and fixed present-day greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, we find that prescribed forcings from increases in anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols are detectable and are spatially confined to lower latitudes. Also, changes in the intertropical convergence zone and poleward shifts in the subsidence zones and the storm tracks are all detectable along with large changes in snow cover and sea ice fraction. These findings suggest that the proposed NASA Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission to measure shortwave reflectance spectra may help elucidate climate forcings, responses, and feedbacks.« less

Variability and predictability of decadal mean temperature and precipitation over China in the CCSM4 last millennium simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, Kairan; Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Zheng, Xiaogu; Lou, Jiale; Zhao, Tianbao

2018-02-01

The modes of variability that arise from the slow-decadal (potentially predictable) and intra-decadal (unpredictable) components of decadal mean temperature and precipitation over China are examined, in a 1000 year (850-1850 AD) experiment using the CCSM4 model. Solar variations, volcanic aerosols, orbital forcing, land use, and greenhouse gas concentrations provide the main forcing and boundary conditions. The analysis is done using a decadal variance decomposition method that identifies sources of potential decadal predictability and uncertainty. The average potential decadal predictabilities (ratio of slow-to-total decadal variance) are 0.62 and 0.37 for the temperature and rainfall over China, respectively, indicating that the (multi-)decadal variations of temperature are dominated by slow-decadal variability, while precipitation is dominated by unpredictable decadal noise. Possible sources of decadal predictability for the two leading predictable modes of temperature are the external radiative forcing, and the combined effects of slow-decadal variability of the Arctic oscillation (AO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), respectively. Combined AO and PDO slow-decadal variability is associated also with the leading predictable mode of precipitation. External radiative forcing as well as the slow-decadal variability of PDO are associated with the second predictable rainfall mode; the slow-decadal variability of Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) is associated with the third predictable precipitation mode. The dominant unpredictable decadal modes are associated with intra-decadal/inter-annual phenomena. In particular, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the intra-decadal variability of the AMO, PDO and AO are the most important sources of prediction uncertainty.

Predicting coral bleaching hotspots: the role of regional variability in thermal stress and potential adaptation rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teneva, Lida; Karnauskas, Mandy; Logan, Cheryl A.; Bianucci, Laura; Currie, Jock C.; Kleypas, Joan A.

2012-03-01

Sea surface temperature fields (1870-2100) forced by CO2-induced climate change under the IPCC SRES A1B CO2 scenario, from three World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (WCRP CMIP3) models (CCSM3, CSIRO MK 3.5, and GFDL CM 2.1), were used to examine how coral sensitivity to thermal stress and rates of adaption affect global projections of coral-reef bleaching. The focus of this study was two-fold, to: (1) assess how the impact of Degree-Heating-Month (DHM) thermal stress threshold choice affects potential bleaching predictions and (2) examine the effect of hypothetical adaptation rates of corals to rising temperature. DHM values were estimated using a conventional threshold of 1°C and a variability-based threshold of 2σ above the climatological maximum Coral adaptation rates were simulated as a function of historical 100-year exposure to maximum annual SSTs with a dynamic rather than static climatological maximum based on the previous 100 years, for a given reef cell. Within CCSM3 simulations, the 1°C threshold predicted later onset of mild bleaching every 5 years for the fraction of reef grid cells where 1°C > 2σ of the climatology time series of annual SST maxima (1961-1990). Alternatively, DHM values using both thresholds, with CSIRO MK 3.5 and GFDL CM 2.1 SSTs, did not produce drastically different onset timing for bleaching every 5 years. Across models, DHMs based on 1°C thermal stress threshold show the most threatened reefs by 2100 could be in the Central and Western Equatorial Pacific, whereas use of the variability-based threshold for DHMs yields the Coral Triangle and parts of Micronesia and Melanesia as bleaching hotspots. Simulations that allow corals to adapt to increases in maximum SST drastically reduce the rates of bleaching. These findings highlight the importance of considering the thermal stress threshold in DHM estimates as well as potential adaptation models in future coral bleaching projections.

Geometry Report; Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics Feasibility Study No. 39.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stolzenberg, Gabriel

These materials were written with the aim of reflecting the thinking of the Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics (CCSM) regarding the goals and objectives for school mathematics. This report deals with some seventh grade mathematical concepts taught at Cambridge Friends' School. The discovery approach was utilized by the teacher in order to…

Final Report of Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics, January 1962 - August 1970.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics, Newton, MA.

The Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics (CCSM) was an association of prominent mathematicians who had a concern for mathematics education at school level, from kindergarten through grade twelve. These mathematicians organized three main conferences in three areas of mathematics education, and have carried on activities related to the…

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE PAGES

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming; ...

2014-12-02

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

Developing Models for Predictive Climate Science

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drake, John B; Jones, Philip W

2007-01-01

The Community Climate System Model results from a multi-agency collaboration designed to construct cutting-edge climate science simulation models for a broad research community. Predictive climate simulations are currently being prepared for the petascale computers of the near future. Modeling capabilities are continuously being improved in order to provide better answers to critical questions about Earth's climate. Climate change and its implications are front page news in today's world. Could global warming be responsible for the July 2006 heat waves in Europe and the United States? Should more resources be devoted to preparing for an increase in the frequency of strongmore » tropical storms and hurricanes like Katrina? Will coastal cities be flooded due to a rise in sea level? The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), which archives all weather data for the nation, reports that global surface temperatures have increased over the last century, and that the rate of increase is three times greater since 1976. Will temperatures continue to climb at this rate, will they decline again, or will the rate of increase become even steeper? To address such a flurry of questions, scientists must adopt a systematic approach and develop a predictive framework. With responsibility for advising on energy and technology strategies, the DOE is dedicated to advancing climate research in order to elucidate the causes of climate change, including the role of carbon loading from fossil fuel use. Thus, climate science--which by nature involves advanced computing technology and methods--has been the focus of a number of DOE's SciDAC research projects. Dr. John Drake (ORNL) and Dr. Philip Jones (LANL) served as principal investigators on the SciDAC project, 'Collaborative Design and Development of the Community Climate System Model for Terascale Computers.' The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a fully-coupled global system that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate states. The collaborative SciDAC team--including over a dozen researchers at institutions around the country--developed, validated, documented, and optimized the performance of CCSM using the latest software engineering approaches, computational technology, and scientific knowledge. Many of the factors that must be accounted for in a comprehensive model of the climate system are illustrated in figure 1.« less

[Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics Feasibility Studies 9-13.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics, Newton, MA.

These materials are a part of a series of studies sponsored by the Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics which reflects the ideas of CCSM regarding the goals and objectives for school mathematics K-12. Feasibility Studies 9-13 contain a wide range of topics. The following are the titles and brief descriptions of these studies. Number…

Symmetry Motion Classes; Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics Feasibility Study No. 40.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLane, Lyn

These materials were written with the aim of reflecting the thinking of The Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics (CCSM) regarding the goals and objectives for school mathematics. This document details the planning and response for each of ten lessons involving symmetry motions. The problems focused on (1) combining motions in a given order,…

Informal Geometry for Young Children; Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics; Feasibility Study No. 34b.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walter, Marion

These materials were written with the aim of reflecting the thinking of The Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics (CCSM) regarding the goals and objectives for school mathematics. These materials are intended to provide children with a variety of informal activities in intuitive geometry in the elementary school. Opportunities are provided…

Inequalities and Real Numbers as a Basis for School Mathematics, Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics Feasibility Study No. 38.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lomon, Earle

These materials were developed as a practical response to some of the recommendations of the 1963 Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics (CCSM). Experimental sessions are described in detail in this report. In the Estabrook Elementary School, Lexington, Massachusetts, first grade children (1964-65 Academic Year) concentrated on material…

Probability Lessons at Hancock School, Lexington; Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics Feasibility Study No. 41.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLane, Lyn

These materials were written with the aim of reflecting the thinking of Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics (CCSM) regarding the goals and objectives for school mathematics. Presented are plans for teaching 23 probability lessons in the elementary grades at Hancock School, Lexington, Massachusetts. The discovery approach was utilized by the…

Measuring Five Preconditions of Success for African American Male Students in Community Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McManus, Kimberly Ozella

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to measure and compare five preconditions for success of African American male community college students at community colleges by determining if there is a relationship between a) GPA and credits earned, utilizing Wood and Harris' (2012; 2016) Community College Survey of Men (CCSM, 2014) and Community College Success…

Influence of tropical atmospheric variability on Weddell Sea deep water convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleppin, H.

2016-02-01

Climate reconstructions from ice core records in Greenland and Antarctica have revealed a series of abrupt climate transitions, showing a distinct relationship between northern and southern hemisphere climate during the last glacial period. The recent ice core records from West Antarctica (WAIS) point towards an atmospheric teleconnection as a possible trigger for the interhemispheric climate variability (Markle et al., 2015). An unforced simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) reveals Greenland warming and cooling events, caused by stochastic atmospheric forcing, that resemble Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles in pattern and magnitude (Kleppin et al., 2015). Anti-phased temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere are small in magnitude and have a spatially varying pattern. We argue that both north and south high latitude climate variability is triggered by changes in tropical atmospheric deep convection in the western tropical Pacific. The atmospheric wave guide provides a fast communication pathway connecting the deep tropics and the polar regions. In the Southern Hemisphere this is manifested as a distinct pressure pattern over West Antarctica. These altered atmospheric surface conditions over the convective region can lead to destabilization of the water column and thus to convective overturning in the Weddell Sea. However, opposed to what is seen in the Northern Hemisphere no centennial scale variability can establish, due to the absence of a strong feedback mechanism between ocean, atmosphere and sea ice. Kleppin, H., Jochum, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., Shields, C. A., & Yeager, S. (2015). Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing as a Cause of Greenland Climate Transitions. Journal of Climate, (2015). Markle, B. and Coauthors (2015, April). Atmospheric teleconnections between the tropics and high southern latitudes during millennial climate change. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (Vol. 17, p. 2569).

An Experimental Text in Transformational Geometry, Student Text; Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics Feasibility Study No. 43a.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics, Newton, MA.

This is part of a student text which was written with the aim of reflecting the thinking of The Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics (CCSM) regarding the goals and objectives for mathematics. The instructional materials were developed for teaching geometry in the secondary schools. This document is chapter six and titled Motions and…

Inequality Lessons at Adams School, Lexington; Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics Feasibility Study No. 42.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzgerald, B.

These materials were written with the aim of reflecting the thinking of The Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics (CCSM) regarding the goals and objectives for school mathematics. Presented are plans for teaching 15 inequality lessons for above average first grade students. The discovery approach is utilized by the teacher in order to involve…

78 FR 72926 - Bald and Golden Eagles; Migratory Birds; Phase I Development of the Chokecherry-Sierra Madre Wind...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-04

... which this notice primarily pertains, would consist of approximately 500 wind turbines, a haul road, a... development for CCSM Phase II, which will consist of about 500 additional wind turbines (roughly 1500 MW), at...-FXMB12310600000] Bald and Golden Eagles; Migratory Birds; Phase I Development of the Chokecherry-Sierra Madre Wind...

Understanding climate variability and global climate change using high-resolution GCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xuelei

In this study, three climate processes are examined using long-term simulations from multiple climate models with increasing horizontal resolutions. These simulations include the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) runs forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SST) (the Athena runs) and a set of coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal hindcasts (the Minerva runs). Both sets of runs use different AGCM resolutions, the highest at 16 km. A pair of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) simulations with ocean general circulation model (OGCM) resolutions at 100 and 10 km are also examined. The higher resolution CCSM run fully resolves oceanic mesoscale eddies. The resolution influence on the precipitation climatology over the Gulf Stream (GS) region is first investigated. In the Athena simulations, the resolution increase generates enhanced mean GS precipitation moderately in both large-scale and sub-scale rainfalls in the North Atlantic, with the latter more tightly confined near the oceanic front. However, the non-eddy resolving OGCM in the Minerva runs simulates a weaker oceanic front and weakens the mean GS precipitation response. On the other hand, an increase in CCSM oceanic resolutions from non-eddy-resolving to eddy resolving regimes greatly improves the model's GS precipitation climatology, resulting in both stronger intensity and more realistic structure. Further analyses show that the improvement of the GS precipitation climatology due to resolution increases is caused by the enhanced atmospheric response to an increased SST gradient near the oceanic front, which leads to stronger surface convergence and upper level divergence. Another focus of this study is on the global warming impacts on precipitation characteristic changes using the high-resolution Athena simulations under the SST forcing from the observations and a global warming scenario. As a comparison, results from the coarse resolution simulation are also analyzed to examine the dependence on resolution. The increasing rates of globally averaged precipitation amount for the high and low resolution simulations are 1.7%/K-1 and 1.8%/K-1, respectively. The sensitivities for heavy, moderate, light and drizzle rain are 6.8, -1.2, 0.0, 0.2%/K-1 for low and 6.3, -1.5, 0.4, -0.2%/K -1 for high resolution simulations. The number of rainy days decreases in a warming scenario, by 3.4 and 4.2 day/year-1, respectively. The most sensitive response of 6.3-6.8%/K-1 for the heavy rain approaches that of the 7%/K-1 for the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling limit. During the twenty-first century simulation, the increases in precipitation are larger over high latitude and wet regions in low and mid-latitudes. Over the dry regions, such as the subtropics, the precipitation amount and frequency decrease. There is a higher occurrence of low and heavy rain from the tropics to mid-latitudes at the expense of the decreases in the frequency of moderate rain. In the third part, the inter-annual variability of the northern hemisphere storm tracks is examined. In the Athena simulations, the leading modes of the observed storm track variability are reproduced realistically by all runs. In general, the fluctuations of the model storm tracks in the North Pacific and Atlantic basins are largely independent of each other. Within each basin, the variations are characterized by the intensity change near the climatological center and the meridional shift of the storm track location. These two modes are associated with major teleconnection patterns of the low frequency atmospheric variations. These model results are not sensitive to resolution. Using the Minerva hindcast initialized in November, it is shown that a portion of the winter (December-January) storm track variability is predictable, mainly due to the influences of the atmospheric wave trains induced by the El Nino and Southern Oscillation.

Do Responses to Different Anthropogenic Forcings Add Linearly in Climate Models?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shindell, Drew; Bonfils, Celine; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Nazarenko, Larissa; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2015-01-01

Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings; however, we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to di?erent forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to di?erences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments.

Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models?

DOE PAGES

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shindell, Drew; ...

2015-10-14

Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings. However,more » we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to different forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to differences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Lastly, our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments.« less

Provisional Approaches to Goals for School Mathematics; Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics Feasibility Study No. 37.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics, Newton, MA.

These materials were written with the aim of reflecting the thinking of Cambridge Conference on School Mathematics (CCSM) regarding the goals and objectives for school mathematics K-6. In view of the experiences of other curriculum groups and of the general discussions since 1963, the present report initiates the next step in evolving the "Goals".…

Bias correction of temperature produced by the Community Climate System Model using Artificial Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moghim, S.; Hsu, K.; Bras, R. L.

2013-12-01

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to predict circulation and energy transfers between the atmosphere and the land. It is known that these models produce biased results that will have impact on their uses. This work proposes a new method for bias correction: the equidistant cumulative distribution function-artificial neural network (EDCDFANN) procedure. The method uses artificial neural networks (ANNs) as a surrogate model to estimate bias-corrected temperature, given an identification of the system derived from GCM models output variables. A two-layer feed forward neural network is trained with observations during a historical period and then the adjusted network can be used to predict bias-corrected temperature for future periods. To capture the extreme values this method is combined with the equidistant CDF matching method (EDCDF, Li et al. 2010). The proposed method is tested with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) outputs using air and skin temperature, specific humidity, shortwave and longwave radiation as inputs to the ANN. This method decreases the mean square error and increases the spatial correlation between the modeled temperature and the observed one. The results indicate the EDCDFANN has potential to remove the biases of the model outputs.

Attributing Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to the Seasonal Cycle of Surface Warming due to CO2 Increase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sejas, S.; Cai, M.

2012-12-01

Surfing warming due to CO2 doubling is a robust feature of coupled general circulation models (GCM), as noted in the IPCC AR4 assessment report. In this study, the contributions of different climate feedbacks to the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of the surface warming is examined using data from NCAR's CCSM4. In particular, a focus is placed on polar regions to see which feedbacks play a role in polar amplification and its seasonal pattern. A new climate feedback analysis method is used to isolate the surface warming or cooling contributions of both radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) climate feedbacks to the total (actual) surface temperature change given by the CCSM4. These contributions (or partial surface temperature changes) are additive and their total is approximately equal to the actual surface temperature change. What is found is that the effects of CO2 doubling alone warms the surface throughout with a maximum in polar regions, which indicates the CO2 forcing alone has a degree of polar warming amplification. Water vapor feedback is a positive feedback throughout but is most responsible for the surface warming found in the tropics. Polar warming amplification is found to be strongest away from summer (especially in NH), which is primarily caused by a positive feedback due to cloud feedbacks but with the surface temperature change due to the CO2 forcing alone and the ocean dynamics and storage feedback also playing an important role. Contrary to popular belief, surface albedo feedback (SAF) does not account for much of the polar amplification. SAF tries to amplify polar warming, but in summer. No major polar amplification is seen in summer for the actual surface temperature, so SAF is not the feedback responsible for polar amplification. This is actually a consequence of the ocean dynamics and storage feedback, which negates the effects of SAF to a large degree.

Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harden, Jennifer W.; Koven, Charles D.; Ping, Chien-Lu; Hugelius, Gustaf; David McGuire, A.; Camill, Phillip; Jorgenson, Torre; Kuhry, Peter; Michaelson, Gary J.; O'Donnell, Jonathan A.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Tarnocai, Charles; Johnson, Kristopher; Grosse, Guido

2012-08-01

Deep soil profiles containing permafrost (Gelisols) were characterized for organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N) stocks to 3 m depths. Using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) we calculate cumulative distributions of active layer thickness (ALT) under current and future climates. The difference in cumulative ALT distributions over time was multiplied by C and N contents of soil horizons in Gelisol suborders to calculate newly thawed C and N. Thawing ranged from 147 PgC with 10 PgN by 2050 (representative concentration pathway RCP scenario 4.5) to 436 PgC with 29 PgN by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Organic horizons that thaw are vulnerable to combustion, and all horizon types are vulnerable to shifts in hydrology and decomposition. The rates and extent of such losses are unknown and can be further constrained by linking field and modelling approaches. These changes have the potential for strong additional loading to our atmosphere, water resources, and ecosystems.

Comparing Mid-Century Climate Change Projections at Convective Resolving Scales (2-km) for Life Zones Within Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowden, J.; Wootten, A.; Terando, A. J.; Boyles, R.; Misra, V.; Bhardwaj, A.

2016-12-01

Puerto Rico is home to over 3.5 million people and numerous endemic plant and animal species that may be at risk as a result of anthropogenic climate change. This study downscales three CMIP5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to a 2-km horizontal resolution using different regional climate models (RCMs) to resolve the island's climate. Here we compare projected climate change from a single GCM, CCSM4, from two RCMs centered on the mid-century, 2041-2060, for a high greenhouse gas emission scenario, RCP8.5. We will discuss similarities and differences in ecologically relevant climate variables, which were selected based on dialogue with experts who have knowledge about potential biological impacts of climate change for current life zones within Puerto Rico. Notable differences appear between the RCMs and include regions with critical ecosystems, such as the El Yunque National Forest in northeast Puerto Rico. This study helps to highlight RCMs structural uncertainty at convective resolving scales.

Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, Jennifer W.; Koven, Charles; Ping, Chien-Lu; Hugelius, Gustaf; McGuire, A. David; Camill, P.; Jorgenson, Torre; Kuhry, Peter; Michaelson, Gary; O'Donnell, Jonathan A.; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Tamocai, Charles; Johnson, Kevin; Grosse, G.

2012-01-01

Deep soil profiles containing permafrost (Gelisols) were characterized for organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N) stocks to 3m depths. Using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) we calculate cumulative probability functions (PDFs) for active layer depths under current and future climates. The difference in PDFs over time was multiplied by C and N contents of soil horizons in Gelisol suborders to calculate newly thawed C and N, Thawing ranged from 147 PgC with 10 PgN by 2050 (representative concentration pathway RCP scenario 4.5) to 436 PgC with 29 PgN by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Organic horizons that thaw are vulnerable to combustion, and all horizon types are vulnerable to shifts in hydrology and decomposition. The rates and extent of such losses are unknown and can be further constrained by linking field and modelling approaches. These changes have the potential for strong additional loading to our atmosphere, water resources, and ecosystems.

Using transfer functions to quantify El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics in data and models.

PubMed

MacMartin, Douglas G; Tziperman, Eli

2014-09-08

Transfer function tools commonly used in engineering control analysis can be used to better understand the dynamics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), compare data with models and identify systematic model errors. The transfer function describes the frequency-dependent input-output relationship between any pair of causally related variables, and can be estimated from time series. This can be used first to assess whether the underlying relationship is or is not frequency dependent, and if so, to diagnose the underlying differential equations that relate the variables, and hence describe the dynamics of individual subsystem processes relevant to ENSO. Estimating process parameters allows the identification of compensating model errors that may lead to a seemingly realistic simulation in spite of incorrect model physics. This tool is applied here to the TAO array ocean data, the GFDL-CM2.1 and CCSM4 general circulation models, and to the Cane-Zebiak ENSO model. The delayed oscillator description is used to motivate a few relevant processes involved in the dynamics, although any other ENSO mechanism could be used instead. We identify several differences in the processes between the models and data that may be useful for model improvement. The transfer function methodology is also useful in understanding the dynamics and evaluating models of other climate processes.

ParCAT: A Parallel Climate Analysis Toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haugen, B.; Smith, B.; Steed, C.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.; Shipman, G.

2012-12-01

Climate science has employed increasingly complex models and simulations to analyze the past and predict the future of our climate. The size and dimensionality of climate simulation data has been growing with the complexity of the models. This growth in data is creating a widening gap between the data being produced and the tools necessary to analyze large, high dimensional data sets. With single run data sets increasing into 10's, 100's and even 1000's of gigabytes, parallel computing tools are becoming a necessity in order to analyze and compare climate simulation data. The Parallel Climate Analysis Toolkit (ParCAT) provides basic tools that efficiently use parallel computing techniques to narrow the gap between data set size and analysis tools. ParCAT was created as a collaborative effort between climate scientists and computer scientists in order to provide efficient parallel implementations of the computing tools that are of use to climate scientists. Some of the basic functionalities included in the toolkit are the ability to compute spatio-temporal means and variances, differences between two runs and histograms of the values in a data set. ParCAT is designed to facilitate the "heavy lifting" that is required for large, multidimensional data sets. The toolkit does not focus on performing the final visualizations and presentation of results but rather, reducing large data sets to smaller, more manageable summaries. The output from ParCAT is provided in commonly used file formats (NetCDF, CSV, ASCII) to allow for simple integration with other tools. The toolkit is currently implemented as a command line utility, but will likely also provide a C library for developers interested in tighter software integration. Elements of the toolkit are already being incorporated into projects such as UV-CDAT and CMDX. There is also an effort underway to implement portions of the CCSM Land Model Diagnostics package using ParCAT in conjunction with Python and gnuplot. ParCAT is implemented in C to provide efficient file IO. The file IO operations in the toolkit use the parallel-netcdf library; this enables the code to use the parallel IO capabilities of modern HPC systems. Analysis that currently requires an estimated 12+ hours with the traditional CCSM Land Model Diagnostics Package can now be performed in as little as 30 minutes on a single desktop workstation and a few minutes for relatively small jobs completed on modern HPC systems such as ORNL's Jaguar.

Use of circulation types classifications to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, M. A.; Casado, M. J.

2012-10-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the multi-model simulations for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to simulate the ERA40 circulation types over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter season. Two classification schemes, k-means and SANDRA, have been considered to test the sensitivity of the evaluation results to the classification procedure. The assessment allows establishing different rankings attending spatial and temporal features of the circulation types. Regarding temporal characteristics, in general, all AR4 models tend to underestimate the frequency of occurrence. The best model simulating spatial characteristics is the UKMO-HadGEM1 whereas CCSM3, UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best simulating the temporal features, for both classification schemes. This result agrees with the AR4 models ranking obtained when having analysed the ability of the same AR4 models to simulate Euro-Atlantic variability modes. This study has proved the utility of applying such a synoptic climatology approach as a diagnostic tool for models' assessment. The ability of the models to properly reproduce the position of ridges and troughs and the frequency of synoptic patterns, will therefore improve our confidence in the response of models to future climate changes.

Glacial Inception and Carbon Cycle in CCSM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochum, M.; Bailey, D. A.; Fasullo, J.; Kay, J. E.; Levis, S.; Lindsay, K. T.; Moore, J. K.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Peacock, S.

2010-12-01

CCSM4 with ocean and land ecosystem and freely evolving atmospheric carbondioxide is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115.000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes, but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by the sea-ice/snow albedo feedback; the MOC is almost unchanged. Most importantly, there is a substantial build up of snow cover on Baffin Island and North Canada - the origins of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds of the same order. However, the differences in global net air-sea carbon fluxes are small, and provide no support for the hypothesis that the solubility pump is responsible for the intial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 during a glacial inception. This surprising result is due to several effects, two of which stand out: Firstly, colder SST leads to higher solubility, but also to increased sea-ice concentration, which blocks air-sea exchange; and secondly, the weakening of the Southern Ocean winds that is predicted by some idealized studies occurs only in part of the basin, and is compensated by stronger winds in other parts.

Patterns of tropical Pacific convection anomalies and associated extratropical wave trains in AMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Shuoyi; Chen, Wen; Graf, Hans-F.; Guo, Yuanyuan

2018-05-01

In this paper, the performance of 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models forced by observational SSTs in simulating the tropical Pacific convective variation and the atmospheric responses in the extratropics are assessed. The multi-model ensemble mean results of 18 CMIP5 models show that five major patterns of tropical Pacific convection anomaly in winter can indeed be well reproduced, however, the simulation of the corresponding extratropical responses for each pattern exists some deficiency except for the La Niña pattern compared with observations. We defined an optimized subset of well performing models (ACCESS1.0, CanAM4, CCSM4, CMCC-CM, HadGEM2-A, MPI-ESM-MR) in tropical Pacific deep convection according to the ranking of model skill score. These models exhibit approximately identical convection anomaly patterns in both amplitude and spatial structure to the observation, which potentially might improve the representation of extratropical teleconnections with the tropical Pacific, especially for the CP El Niño (CPEN), EP El Niño (EPEN) and western CP (W-CP) patterns. Both evident atmospheric anomalies of CPEN and EPEN patterns over the NA/E sector and the northeastward propagating wave trains of W-CP pattern can be quite well simulated in the high-skilled models.

Impact of topography-radiation interaction on surface energy budget of the Tibetan Plateau in GCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, W. L.; Liou, K. N.; Gu, Y.; Wang, C. C.; Wu, C. H.; Hsu, H. H.

2017-12-01

We have develop a parameterization to quantify the effect of 3-D topography on surface solar radiation, including multiple reflection and heating difference at sunward and shaded slopes of mountains. A series of sensitivity tests using NCAR CCSM4 with and without this parameterization have been carried out to investigate this effect in climate simulations. The result indicates that missing the 3-D radiation-topography interaction could be a key factor leading to cold biases over the Tibetan Plateau in winter in all of the CMIP5 models. Consequently, the snowmelt rate in the Tibetan Plateau could be underestimated in most future projections. In addition, the topographic effect can also increase the net surface solar radiation at the southern slope of the Himalayas in summer. The temporal and spatial distribution of monsoon precipitation and circulation could also be influenced.

The contribution of sea-level rise to flooding in large river catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Hopson, T. M.; Gilleland, E.; Lamarque, J.; Hu, A.; Simmer, C.

2012-12-01

Climate change is expected to both impact sea level rise as well as flooding. Our study focuses on the combined effect of climate change on upper catchment precipitation as well as on sea-level rise at the river mouths and the impact this will have on river flooding both at the coast and further upstream. We concentrate on the eight catchments of the Amazonas, Congo, Orinoco, Ganges/Brahmaputra/Meghna, Mississippi, St. Lawrence, Danube and Niger rivers. To assess the impact of climate change, upper catchment precipitation as well as monthly mean thermosteric sea-level rise at the river mouth outflow are taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6. Continuous daily time series for average catchment precipitation and discharge are available for each of the catchments. To arrive at a future discharge time series, we used these observations to develop a simple statistical hydrological model which can be applied to the modelled future upper catchment precipitation values. The analysis of this surrogate discharge time series alone already yields significant changes in flood return levels as well as flood duration. Using the geometry of the river channel, the backwater effect of sea-level rise is incorporated in our analysis of both flood frequencies and magnitudes by calculating the effective additional discharge due to the increase in water level at the river mouth outflow, as well as its tapering impact upstream. By combining these effects, our results focus on the merged impact of changes in extreme precipitation with increases in river height due to sea-level rise at the river mouths. Judging from our preliminary results, the increase in effective discharge due to sea-level rise cannot be neglected when discussing late 21st century flooding in the respective river basins. In particular, we find that especially in countries with low elevation gradient, flood characteristics are impacted by changes in sea-level rise as far inland as 150 kilometers. Therefore, a larger population than the coastal inhabitants alone are exposed to risks of further projected increases of sea-level rise. A prime example for a megacity greatly put at risk by this is Dhaka City in Bangladesh, with a population of roughly 14 million people.

Climate and Ocean Circulation During "The Boring Billion" Simulated by CCSM3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P.; Hu, Y.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

The Boring Billion is referred to the era between approximately 1.8 and 0.8 billion years ago. Geological evidence suggests that no dramatic climate changes in the billions of years, at least in terms of permanent glaciation. The atmospheric oxygen maintained at a relatively low level without significant perturbations. Life had a certain degree of evolution with a quite gentle pace. Relative to the Great Oxidation Event occurred previously, and the Snowball Earth Event and Cambrian Explosion occurred afterwards, this billion years was calm in all aspects so it's often referred to as "the Boring Billion". Why were both the climate and oxygen concentration so stable, and how the anoxic condition in the deep ocean maintained are the questions that motivated our research. We use the Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Model CCSM3 in this study. The climate of the Boring Billion is simulated for two distinct continental configurations reconstructed for 1540 Ma and 1420 Ma, with continental fragments concentrating towards the North Pole and equator, respectively. The solar constant is set to be 10% weaker than that of the present day. The results show that when the concentration of CO2 is 20 times the present atmospheric level (PAL), the global mean surface temperatures are 19 ° C and 20 ° C for the 1540 Ma and 1420 Ma continental configuration, respectively. Large scale permanent glaciers cannot develop in such a warm climate even for the continents at the polar region. The largest mixed-layer depth in the high-latitude ocean is approximately 1200 m and meridional overturning circulation can reach depth of 3000 m with strength of 40 Sv for both continental configuration. This implies that the material and energy exchange between shallow and deep ocean, as well as atmosphere and ocean, is efficient. When CO2 concentration is reduced to 10 PAL, 5 PAL or 2.5 PAL, global average temperature becomes 16 ° C, 13 ° C and 2 ° C respectively, and permanent glaciers start to form at the polar regions. Therefore, our simulations suggest that the CO2 concentration had to be close to or higher than 20 PAL in order for the simulated climate to be consistent with the observations. Moreover, the oceans were not dynamically stratified, to maintain an anoxic deep ocean biogeochemical processes which are not included in the model have to be invoked.

Objective spatiotemporal proxy-model comparisons of the Asian monsoon for the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Ammann, C. M.; Buckley, B. M.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Jacoby, G.; Wright, W. E.; Davi, N.; Li, J.

2008-12-01

The Asian monsoon system can be studied using a complementary proxy/simulation approach which evaluates climate models using estimates of past precipitation and temperature, and which subsequently applies the best understanding of the physics of the climate system as captured in general circulation models to evaluate the broad-scale dynamics behind regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we use a millennial-length climate field reconstruction of monsoon season summer (JJA) drought, developed from tree- ring proxies, with coupled climate simulations from NCAR CSM1.4 and CCSM3 to evaluate the cause of large- scale persistent droughts over the last one thousand years. Direct comparisons are made between the external forced response within the climate model and the spatiotemporal field reconstruction. In order to identify patterns of drought associated with internal variability in the climate system, we use a model/proxy analog technique which objectively selects epochs in the model that most closely reproduce those observed in the reconstructions. The concomitant ocean-atmosphere dynamics are then interpreted in order to identify and understand the internal climate system forcing of low frequency monsoon variability. We examine specific periods of extensive or intensive regional drought in the 15th, 17th, and 18th centuries, many of which are coincident with major cultural changes in the region.

Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Eric; Stefanova, Lydia; Smith, Thomas

2014-01-01

Precipitation data from Global Climate Models have been downscaled to smaller regions. Adapting this downscaled precipitation data to a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of southern Florida allows an examination of future conditions and their effect on groundwater levels, inundation patterns, surface-water stage and flows, and salinity. The downscaled rainfall data include the 1996-2001 time series from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 simulation and both the 1996-1999 and 2038-2057 time series from two global climate models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL). Synthesized surface-water inflow datasets were developed for the 2038-2057 simulations. The resulting hydrologic simulations, with and without a 30-cm sea-level rise, were compared with each other and field data to analyze a range of projected conditions. Simulations predicted generally higher future stage and groundwater levels and surface-water flows, with sea-level rise inducing higher coastal salinities. A coincident rise in sea level, precipitation and surface-water flows resulted in a narrower inland saline/fresh transition zone. The inland areas were affected more by the rainfall difference than the sea-level rise, and the rainfall differences make little difference in coastal inundation, but a larger difference in coastal salinities.

The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, P. J.

2012-01-01

Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075-2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985-2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by -5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse projections caused decreases around -20%. Changes in human ignition led to an increase of 20%. When we also included changes in fire management efforts to suppress fires in densely populated areas, global fire carbon emission decreased by -6% in response to changes in population density. We concluded from this study that changes in fire emissions in the future are controlled by multiple interacting factors. Although changes in climate led to an increase in future fire emissions this could be globally counterbalanced by coupled changes in land use, harvest, and demography.

Uncertainties in the Modelled CO2 Threshold for Antarctic Glaciation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gasson, E.; Lunt, D. J.; DeConto, R.; Goldner, A.; Heinemann, M.; Huber, M.; LeGrande, A. N.; Pollard, D.; Sagoo, N.; Siddall, M.;

Diversity of precipitation characteristics in contiguous United States: climatology, interannual variation, and change in the warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chen; Chang, Won; Kong, Wenwen; Wang, Jiali; Rao Kotamarthi, V.; Stein, Michael L.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

2017-04-01

Individual precipitation events induce different levels of hydrological impacts given their diverse characteristics, not only in precipitation amount but also in precipitation rate, duration, and size. It thus calls for an understanding of the diversity in precipitation characteristics and its influence on the total precipitation in contiguous United States. The framework we use to look into the precipitation diversity includes three steps: 1. we analyze the precipitation in observations (StageIV, 4kmx4km, 1h) and regional climate models (CCSM4-WRF downscaling,12kmx12km, 3h), in which the high spatio-temporal resolution enables us to "see" individual precipitation events. 2. switching from the Eulerian to Lagrangian perspective, we track individual rainstorms using Chang et al. (2016), in which algorithm both small and big events are identified to ensure the full spectrum diversity. 3. we use a set of metrics to characterize varying aspects of diversity and decompose their contributions to the total precipitation in CONUS. We also measure the variation and change in event frequency. The overall understandings are the following: 1. as to the climatology, though certain rainstorms with longer duration or larger size have better abilities to produce precipitation, the scarcity limits their overall contributions to the seasonal precipitation in CONUS. 2. as to the interannual variation, for a wetter year when the total precipitation is larger than normal and events are more frequent, the averaged rainstorm size is larger though the intensified precipitation rate shortens the rainstorm duration. 3. as to the change in a warming climate (as in Chang et al. 2016), CCSM4-WRF projection under RCP8.5 scenario suggests that, along with the increasing precipitation amount and intensity, the averaged rainstorm duration become longer but the size becomes overall smaller. The total number of events does not change much. 4. different relations governing the interannual variation and mean state change suggest that the physics across varying time scales could be orthogonal and thus require individual investigation and comparison to reach an overall understanding.

Assessment of climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin, India.

PubMed

Dubey, Swatantra Kumar; Sharma, Devesh

2018-09-01

Crop growth models like AquaCrop are useful in understanding the impact of climate change on crop production considering the various projections from global circulation models and regional climate models. The present study aims to assess the climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin i.e., wheat, barley and maize. Banas basin is part of the semi-arid region of Rajasthan state in India. AquaCrop model is used to calculate the yield of all the three crops for a historical period of 30years (1981-2010) and then compared with observed yield data. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values are calculated to assess the model accuracy in prediction of yield. Further, the calibrated model is used to predict the possible impacts of climate change and CO 2 concentration on crop yield using CORDEX-SA climate projections of three driving climate models (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the future period 2021-2050. RMSE values of simulated yield with respect to observed yield of wheat, barley and maize are 11.99, 16.15 and 19.13, respectively. It is predicted that crop yield of all three crops will increase under the climate change conditions for future period (2021-2050). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal and Monthly Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.; Van den Dool, H. M.

2013-12-01

Since August 2011, the realtime seasonal forecasts of U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been made on 8th of each month by NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC). During the first year, the participating models were NCEP/CFSv1&2, GFDL/CM2.2, NCAR/U.Miami/COLA/CCSM3, NASA/GEOS5, IRI/ ECHAM-a & ECHAM-f for the realtime NMME forecast. The Canadian Meteorological Center CanCM3 and CM4 replaced the CFSv1 and IRI's models in the second year. The NMME team at CPC collects three variables, including precipitation, 2-meter temperature and sea surface temperature from each modeling center on a 1x1 global grid, removes systematic errors, makes the grand ensemble mean with equal weight for each model and constructs a probability forecast with equal weight for each member. The team then provides the NMME forecast to the operational CPC forecaster responsible for the seasonal and monthly outlook each month. Verification of the seasonal and monthly prediction from NMME is conducted by calculating the anomaly correlation (AC) from the 30-year hindcasts (1982-2011) of individual model and NMME ensemble. The motivation of this study is to provide skill benchmarks for future improvements of the NMME seasonal and monthly prediction system. The experimental (Phase I) stage of the project already supplies routine guidance to users of the NMME forecasts.

The role of mineral dust aerosols in polar amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, F.; Kug, J.; Park, R.; Jin, F.; Lee, J. H.

2010-12-01

During today’s global warming, as well as during glacial-interglacial changes, temperature increase is larger in polar areas than the global average, a phenomenon called “polar amplification”. Model studies suggest ice cap melting due to greenhouse gas induced temperature rise, and consequent decrease of albedo and enhanced oceanic and atmospheric heat transport, as the primary cause for this phenomenon in nowadays Arctic. However, the underlying causes for polar amplification on glacial-interglacial timescales are still unclear, especially in the Antarctic where sea ice coverage does not change as drastically as in the North. Recent results have shown that the temperature increase is not limited to the surface and that these changes can not be explained by snow and ice changes alone. Starting with dust flux measurements from ice cores in Greenland and Antarctica, we have estimated tropospheric concentrations using deposition velocities and vertical concentration profiles for Holocene and LGM conditions from the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) and a 3-D global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). The radiative forcing due to mineral dust aerosols was then estimated using the GEOS-Chem model, based on the particle properties found in the ice. Preliminary results point towards positive forcing of dust because of the high albedo of the underlying ice sheets.

Multi-model Ensemble Regional Climate Projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, S.; IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2016-12-01

In this study, the future change in precipitation due to global warming is investigated over the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM). A total of nine 30-year projections under multi-GCMs (CCSM, MPI, ACCESS) and multi-scenarios of emissions (Control, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are dynamically downscaled using the MRCM with 12km horizontal resolution. Since downscaled results tend to systematically overestimate the precipitation regardless of GCM used as lateral boundary conditions, the Parametric Quantile Mapping (PQM) is applied to reduce this wet bias. The cross validation for the control simulation shows that the PQM method seems to retain the spatial pattern and temporal variability of raw simulation, however it effectively reduce the wet bias. Based on ensemble projections produced by dynamical downscaling and statistical bias correction, a reduction of future precipitation is discernible, in particular during dry season (June-July-August). For example, intense precipitation in Singapore is expected to be reduced in RCP8.5 projection compared to control simulation. However, the geographical patterns and magnitude of changes still remain uncertain, suffering from statistical insignificance and a lack of model agreement. Acknowledgements This research is supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise programme. The Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling is an interdisciplinary research group of the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology

Modeling Future Fire danger over North America in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, P.; Paimazumder, D.; Done, J.; Flannigan, M.

2016-12-01

Fire danger ratings are used to determine wildfire potential due to weather and climate factors. The Fire Weather Index (FWI), part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), incorporates temperature, relative humidity, windspeed and precipitation to give a daily fire danger rating that is used by wildfire management agencies in an operational context. Studies using GCM output have shown that future wildfire danger will increase in a warming climate. However, these studies are somewhat limited by the coarse spatial resolution (typically 100-400km) and temporal resolution (typically 6-hourly to monthly) of the model output. Future wildfire potential over North America based on FWI is calculated using output from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is used to downscale future climate scenarios from the bias-corrected Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under RCP8.5 scenarios at a spatial resolution of 36km. We consider five eleven year time slices: 1990-2000, 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2050-2060 and 2080-2090. The dynamically downscaled simulation improves determination of future extreme weather by improving both spatial and temporal resolution over most GCM models. To characterize extreme fire weather we calculate annual numbers of spread days (days for which FWI > 19) and annual 99th percentile of FWI. Additionally, an extreme value analysis based on the peaks-over-threshold method allows us to calculate the return values for extreme FWI values.

The Effect of Orbital Configuration on the Possible Climates and Habitability of Kepler-62f.

PubMed

Shields, Aomawa L; Barnes, Rory; Agol, Eric; Charnay, Benjamin; Bitz, Cecilia; Meadows, Victoria S

2016-06-01

As lower-mass stars often host multiple rocky planets, gravitational interactions among planets can have significant effects on climate and habitability over long timescales. Here we explore a specific case, Kepler-62f (Borucki et al., 2013 ), a potentially habitable planet in a five-planet system with a K2V host star. N-body integrations reveal the stable range of initial eccentricities for Kepler-62f is 0.00 ≤ e ≤ 0.32, absent the effect of additional, undetected planets. We simulate the tidal evolution of Kepler-62f in this range and find that, for certain assumptions, the planet can be locked in a synchronous rotation state. Simulations using the 3-D Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Generic global climate model (GCM) indicate that the surface habitability of this planet is sensitive to orbital configuration. With 3 bar of CO2 in its atmosphere, we find that Kepler-62f would only be warm enough for surface liquid water at the upper limit of this eccentricity range, providing it has a high planetary obliquity (between 60° and 90°). A climate similar to that of modern-day Earth is possible for the entire range of stable eccentricities if atmospheric CO2 is increased to 5 bar levels. In a low-CO2 case (Earth-like levels), simulations with version 4 of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) GCM and LMD Generic GCM indicate that increases in planetary obliquity and orbital eccentricity coupled with an orbital configuration that places the summer solstice at or near pericenter permit regions of the planet with above-freezing surface temperatures. This may melt ice sheets formed during colder seasons. If Kepler-62f is synchronously rotating and has an ocean, CO2 levels above 3 bar would be required to distribute enough heat to the nightside of the planet to avoid atmospheric freeze-out and permit a large enough region of open water at the planet's substellar point to remain stable. Overall, we find multiple plausible combinations of orbital and atmospheric properties that permit surface liquid water on Kepler-62f. Extrasolar planets-Habitability-Planetary environments. Astrobiology 16, 443-464.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them. References: Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2017: Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system. J. Climate, in press. Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2016: The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4. J. Climate, 29, 401-417, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0284.1.

The Effect of Orbital Configuration on the Possible Climates and Habitability of Kepler-62f

PubMed Central

Barnes, Rory; Agol, Eric; Charnay, Benjamin; Bitz, Cecilia; Meadows, Victoria S.

2016-01-01

Abstract As lower-mass stars often host multiple rocky planets, gravitational interactions among planets can have significant effects on climate and habitability over long timescales. Here we explore a specific case, Kepler-62f (Borucki et al., 2013), a potentially habitable planet in a five-planet system with a K2V host star. N-body integrations reveal the stable range of initial eccentricities for Kepler-62f is 0.00 ≤ e ≤ 0.32, absent the effect of additional, undetected planets. We simulate the tidal evolution of Kepler-62f in this range and find that, for certain assumptions, the planet can be locked in a synchronous rotation state. Simulations using the 3-D Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Generic global climate model (GCM) indicate that the surface habitability of this planet is sensitive to orbital configuration. With 3 bar of CO2 in its atmosphere, we find that Kepler-62f would only be warm enough for surface liquid water at the upper limit of this eccentricity range, providing it has a high planetary obliquity (between 60° and 90°). A climate similar to that of modern-day Earth is possible for the entire range of stable eccentricities if atmospheric CO2 is increased to 5 bar levels. In a low-CO2 case (Earth-like levels), simulations with version 4 of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) GCM and LMD Generic GCM indicate that increases in planetary obliquity and orbital eccentricity coupled with an orbital configuration that places the summer solstice at or near pericenter permit regions of the planet with above-freezing surface temperatures. This may melt ice sheets formed during colder seasons. If Kepler-62f is synchronously rotating and has an ocean, CO2 levels above 3 bar would be required to distribute enough heat to the nightside of the planet to avoid atmospheric freeze-out and permit a large enough region of open water at the planet's substellar point to remain stable. Overall, we find multiple plausible combinations of orbital and atmospheric properties that permit surface liquid water on Kepler-62f. Key Words: Extrasolar planets—Habitability—Planetary environments. Astrobiology 16, 443–464. PMID:27176715

Projected climate and vegetation changes and potential biotic effects for Fort Benning, Georgia; Fort Hood, Texas; and Fort Irwin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, S.L.; Atkins, J.; Bancroft, B.A.; Bartlein, P.J.; Lawler, J.J.; Smith, B.; Wilsey, C.B.

2012-01-01

The responses of species and ecosystems to future climate changes will present challenges for conservation and natural resource managers attempting to maintain both species populations and essential habitat. This report describes projected future changes in climate and vegetation for three study areas surrounding the military installations of Fort Benning, Georgia, Fort Hood, Texas, and Fort Irwin, California. Projected climate changes are described for the time period 2070–2099 (30-year mean) as compared to 1961–1990 (30-year mean) for each study area using data simulated by the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), and UKMO-HadCM3, run under the B1, A1B, and A2 future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. These climate data are used to simulate potential changes in important components of the vegetation for each study area using LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, and LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model optimized for regional studies. The simulated vegetation results are compared with observed vegetation data for the study areas. Potential effects of the simulated future climate and vegetation changes for species and habitats of management concern are discussed in each study area, with a particular focus on federally listed threatened and endangered species.

Integrated Farm System Model Version 4.1 and Dairy Gas Emissions Model Version 3.1 software release and distribution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Animal facilities are significant contributors of gaseous emissions including ammonia (NH3) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Previous versions of the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM version 4.0) and Dairy Gas Emissions Model (DairyGEM version 3.0), two whole-farm simulation models developed by USDA-ARS, ...

Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

PubMed

Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

2017-08-15

The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M - Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iversen, T.; Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B.; Kirkevåg, A.; Seland, Ø.; Drange, H.; Kristjánsson, J. E.; Medhaug, I.; Sand, M.; Seierstad, I. A.

2012-09-01

The NorESM1-M simulation results for CMIP5 (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html) are described and discussed. Together with the accompanying paper by Bentsen et al. (2012), this paper documents that NorESM1-M is a valuable global climate model for research and for providing complementary results to the evaluation of possible man made climate change. NorESM is based on the model CCSM4 operated at NCAR on behalf of many contributors in USA. The ocean model is replaced by a developed version of MICOM and the atmospheric model is extended with on-line calculations of aerosols, their direct effect, and their indirect effect on warm clouds. Model validation is presented in a companion paper (Bentsen et al., 2012). NorESM1-M is estimated to have equilibrium climate sensitivity slightly smaller than 2.9 K, a transient climate response just below 1.4 K, and is less sensitive than most other models. Cloud feedbacks damp the response, and a strong AMOC reduces the heat fraction available for increasing near surface temperatures, for evaporation, and for melting ice. The future projections based on RCP scenarios yield global surface air temperature increase almost one standard deviation lower than a 15-model average. Summer sea-ice is projected to decrease considerably by 2100, and completely for RCP8.5. The AMOC is projected to reduce by 12%, 15-17%, and 32% for the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 respectively. Precipitation is projected to increase in the tropics, decrease in the subtropics and in southern parts of the northern extra-tropics during summer, and otherwise increase in most of the extra-tropics. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle indicate that precipitation events over continents will become more intense and dry spells more frequent. Extra-tropical storminess in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to shift northwards. There are indications of more frequent spring and summer blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sectors and that ENSO events weaken but appear more frequent. These indications are uncertain because of biases in the model's representation of present-day conditions. There are indications that positive phase PNA and negative phase NAO become less frequent under the RCP8.5 scenario, but also this result is considered uncertain. Single-forcing experiments indicate that aerosols and greenhouse gases produce similar geographical patterns of response for near surface temperature and precipitation. These patterns tend to have opposite sign, with important exceptions for precipitation at low latitudes. The asymmetric aerosol effects between the two hemispheres leads to a southward displacement of ITCZ. Both forcing agents thus tend to reduce northern hemispheric subtropical precipitation.

Explicit Convection over the Western Pacific Warm Pool in the Community Atmospheric Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemiaski, Micha Z.; Grabowski, Wojciech W.; Moncrieff, Mitchell W.

2005-05-01

This paper reports on the application of the cloud-resolving convection parameterization (CRCP) to the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM), the atmospheric component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). The cornerstone of CRCP is the use of a two-dimensional zonally oriented cloud-system-resolving model to represent processes on mesoscales at the subgrid scale of a climate model. Herein, CRCP is applied at each climate model column over the tropical western Pacific warm pool, in a domain spanning 10°S-10°N, 150°-170°E. Results from the CRCP simulation are compared with CAM in its standard configuration.The CRCP simulation shows significant improvements of the warm pool climate. The cloud condensate distribution is much improved as well as the bias of the tropopause height. More realistic structure of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the boreal winter and better representation of the variability of convection are evident. In particular, the diurnal cycle of precipitation has phase and amplitude in good agreement with observations. Also improved is the large-scale organization of the tropical convection, especially superclusters associated with Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)-like systems. Location and propagation characteristics, as well as lower-tropospheric cyclonic and upper-tropospheric anticyclonic gyres, are more realistic than in the standard CAM. Finally, the simulations support an analytic theory of dynamical coupling between organized convection and equatorial beta-plane vorticity dynamics associated with MJO-like systems.

Representations of the Stratospheric Polar Vortices in Versions 1 and 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pawson, S.; Stolarski, R.S.; Nielsen, J.E.; Perlwitz, J.; Oman, L.; Waugh, D.

2009-01-01

This study will document the behavior of the polar vortices in two versions of the GEOS CCM. Both versions of the model include the same stratospheric chemistry, They differ in the underlying circulation model. Version 1 of the GEOS CCM is based on the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 4, general circulation model which includes the finite-volume (Lin-Rood) dynamical core and physical parameterizations from Community Climate Model, Version 3. GEOS CCM Version 2 is based on the GEOS-5 GCM that includes a different tropospheric physics package. Baseline simulations of both models, performed at two-degree spatial resolution, show some improvements in Version 2, but also some degradation, In the Antarctic, both models show an over-persistent stratospheric polar vortex with late breakdown, but the year-to-year variations that are overestimated in Version I are more realistic in Version 2. The implications of this for the interactions with tropospheric climate, the Southern Annular Mode, will be discussed. In the Arctic both model versions show a dominant dynamically forced variabi;ity, but Version 2 has a persistent warm bias in the low stratosphere and there are seasonal differences in the simulations. These differences will be quantified in terms of climate change and ozone loss. Impacts of model resolution, using simulations at one-degree and half-degree, and changes in physical parameterizations (especially the gravity wave drag) will be discussed.

Application of Inverse Modeling to Estimate Groundwater Recharge under Future Climate Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akbariyeh, S.; Wang, T.; Bartelt-Hunt, S.; Li, Y.

2016-12-01

Climate variability and change will impose profound influences on groundwater systems. Accurate estimation of groundwater recharge is extremely important for predicting the flow and contaminant transport in the subsurface, which, however, remains as one of the most challenging tasks in the field of hydrology. Using an inverse modeling technique and HYDRUS 1D software, we predicted the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge across the Upper Platte basin in Nebraska, USA, based on 5-year projected future climate and soil moisture data (2057-2060). The climate data was obtained from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. Precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture data were extracted from 76 grids located within the Upper Platte basin to perform the inverse modeling. Hargreaves equation was used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration according to latitude, maximum and minimum temperature, and leaf area index (LAI) data at each node. Van-Genuchten parameters were optimized using the inverse algorithm to minimize the error between input and modeled soil moisture data. The groundwater recharge was calculated as the amount of water that passed the lower boundary of the best fitted model. The year of 2057 was used as a spin-up period to minimize the impact of initial conditions. The model was calibrated for years 2058 to 2059 and validation was performed for 2060. This work demonstrates an efficient approach to estimating groundwater recharge based on climate modeling results, which will aid groundwater resources management under future climate scenarios.

A fresh look at the Last Glacial Maximum using Paleoclimate Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malevich, S. B.; Tierney, J. E.; Hakim, G. J.; Tardif, R.

2017-12-01

Quantifying climate conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum ( 21ka) can help us to understand climate responses to forcing and climate states that are poorly represented in the instrumental record. Paleoclimate proxies may be used to estimate these climate conditions, but proxies are sparsely distributed and possess uncertainties from environmental and biogeochemical processes. Alternatively, climate model simulations provide a full-field view, but may predict unrealistic climate states or states not faithful to proxy records. Here, we use data assimilation - combining climate proxy records with a theoretical understanding from climate models - to produce field reconstructions of the LGM that leverage the information from both data and models. To date, data assimilation has mainly been used to produce reconstructions of climate fields through the last millennium. We expand this approach in order to produce a climate fields for the Last Glacial Maximum using an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation. Ensemble samples were formed from output from multiple models including CCSM3, CESM2.1, and HadCM3. These model simulations are combined with marine sediment proxies for upper ocean temperature (TEX86, UK'37, Mg/Ca and δ18O of foraminifera), utilizing forward models based on a newly developed suite of Bayesian proxy system models. We also incorporate age model and radiocarbon reservoir uncertainty into our reconstructions using Bayesian age modeling software. The resulting fields show familiar patterns based on comparison with previous proxy-based reconstructions, but additionally reveal novel patterns of large-scale shifts in ocean-atmosphere dynamics, as the surface temperature data inform upon atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns.

Integrated Farm System Model Version 4.3 and Dairy Gas Emissions Model Version 3.3 Software development and distribution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Modeling routines of the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM version 4.2) and Dairy Gas Emission Model (DairyGEM version 3.2), two whole-farm simulation models developed and maintained by USDA-ARS, were revised with new components for: (1) simulation of ammonia (NH3) and greenhouse gas emissions gene...

Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections

PubMed Central

Bailey, Stephanie L.; Bono, Rose S.; Nash, Denis; Kimmel, April D.

2018-01-01

Background Spreadsheet software is increasingly used to implement systems science models informing health policy decisions, both in academia and in practice where technical capacity may be limited. However, spreadsheet models are prone to unintentional errors that may not always be identified using standard error-checking techniques. Our objective was to illustrate, through a methodologic case study analysis, the impact of unintentional errors on model projections by implementing parallel model versions. Methods We leveraged a real-world need to revise an existing spreadsheet model designed to inform HIV policy. We developed three parallel versions of a previously validated spreadsheet-based model; versions differed by the spreadsheet cell-referencing approach (named single cells; column/row references; named matrices). For each version, we implemented three model revisions (re-entry into care; guideline-concordant treatment initiation; immediate treatment initiation). After standard error-checking, we identified unintentional errors by comparing model output across the three versions. Concordant model output across all versions was considered error-free. We calculated the impact of unintentional errors as the percentage difference in model projections between model versions with and without unintentional errors, using +/-5% difference to define a material error. Results We identified 58 original and 4,331 propagated unintentional errors across all model versions and revisions. Over 40% (24/58) of original unintentional errors occurred in the column/row reference model version; most (23/24) were due to incorrect cell references. Overall, >20% of model spreadsheet cells had material unintentional errors. When examining error impact along the HIV care continuum, the percentage difference between versions with and without unintentional errors ranged from +3% to +16% (named single cells), +26% to +76% (column/row reference), and 0% (named matrices). Conclusions Standard error-checking techniques may not identify all errors in spreadsheet-based models. Comparing parallel model versions can aid in identifying unintentional errors and promoting reliable model projections, particularly when resources are limited. PMID:29570737

Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections.

PubMed

Bailey, Stephanie L; Bono, Rose S; Nash, Denis; Kimmel, April D

2018-01-01

Spreadsheet software is increasingly used to implement systems science models informing health policy decisions, both in academia and in practice where technical capacity may be limited. However, spreadsheet models are prone to unintentional errors that may not always be identified using standard error-checking techniques. Our objective was to illustrate, through a methodologic case study analysis, the impact of unintentional errors on model projections by implementing parallel model versions. We leveraged a real-world need to revise an existing spreadsheet model designed to inform HIV policy. We developed three parallel versions of a previously validated spreadsheet-based model; versions differed by the spreadsheet cell-referencing approach (named single cells; column/row references; named matrices). For each version, we implemented three model revisions (re-entry into care; guideline-concordant treatment initiation; immediate treatment initiation). After standard error-checking, we identified unintentional errors by comparing model output across the three versions. Concordant model output across all versions was considered error-free. We calculated the impact of unintentional errors as the percentage difference in model projections between model versions with and without unintentional errors, using +/-5% difference to define a material error. We identified 58 original and 4,331 propagated unintentional errors across all model versions and revisions. Over 40% (24/58) of original unintentional errors occurred in the column/row reference model version; most (23/24) were due to incorrect cell references. Overall, >20% of model spreadsheet cells had material unintentional errors. When examining error impact along the HIV care continuum, the percentage difference between versions with and without unintentional errors ranged from +3% to +16% (named single cells), +26% to +76% (column/row reference), and 0% (named matrices). Standard error-checking techniques may not identify all errors in spreadsheet-based models. Comparing parallel model versions can aid in identifying unintentional errors and promoting reliable model projections, particularly when resources are limited.

Tracking Extra Tropical Cyclones to Explore how the Jet Stream Shifted During The Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrett, H.

2016-12-01

The behavior of the jet stream during the last glacial maximum (LGM 21ka) has been the focus of multiple studies but remains highly debated. Proxy data shows that during this time in the United States, the northwest was drier than modern conditions and the southwest was wetter than modern conditions. To explain this there are two competing hypothesis, one which suggests that the jet stream shifted uniformly south and the other which suggests a stronger jet that split shifting both north and south. For this study we used TECA, to reanalyze model out-put, looking at the frequency and patterns of Extra Tropical Cyclones (ETC's), which have been found to be steered by the jet stream. We used the CCSM4 model based on its agreement with proxy data, and compared data from both the LGM and pre-industrial time periods. Initial results show a dramatic shift of ETC's north by about 10º-15º degrees and a decrease in frequency compared to pre-industrial conditions, coupled with a less pronounced southward shift of 5º-10º degrees.This evidence supports the idea that the jet stream split during the LGM. A stronger understanding of jet stream behavior will help to improve future models and prediction capabilities to prepare for hydro-climate change in drought sensitive areas.

Modeling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Mediterranean During the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, S.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Zorita, E.; Fleitmann, D.; Preiser-Kapeller, J.; Toreti, A., , Dr; Sargent, A. M.; Bozkurt, D.; White, S.; Haldon, J. F.; Akçer-Ön, S.; Izdebski, A.

2017-12-01

Past civilisations were influenced by complex external and internal forces, including changes in the environment, climate, politics and economy. A geographical hotspot of the interplay between those agents is the Mediterranean, a cradle of cultural and scientific development. We analyse a novel compilation of high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Mediterranean and compare them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for three historical time intervals - the Crusaders, 1095-1290 CE; the Mamluk regime in Transjordan, 1260-1516 CE; and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion, 1580-1610 CE - when environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. ESMs provide important information on the dynamical mechanisms and underlying processes that led to anomalous hydroclimatic conditions of the past. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the three periods cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. The integrated analysis of palaeoclimate proxies, climate reconstructions and model simulations sheds light on our understanding of past climate change and its societal impact. Finally, our research emphasises the need to further study the societal dimension of environmental and climate change in the past, in order to properly understand the role that climate has played in human history.

Downscaling Future Climate Change Projections for Water Resource Applications: A Case Study for Mesoamerica (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oglesby, R. J.; Rowe, C. M.; Munoz-Arriola, F.

2013-12-01

Mesoamerica is a region that is potentially at severe risk due to future climate change. This is especially true for the water resources required for agriculture, human consumption, and hydroelectric power generation. Yet global climate models cannot properly resolve surface climate in the region, due to it's complex topography and nearness to oceans. Precipitation in particular is poorly handled. Further, Mesoamerica is hardly the only region worldwide for which these issues exist. To address this deficiency, a series of high-resolution (4-12 km) dynamical downscaling simulations of future climate change between now and 2060 have been made for Mesoamerica and the Caribbean. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale results from the NCAR CCSM4 CMIP5 RCP8.5 global simulation. The entire region is covered at 12 km horizontal spatial resolution, with as much as possible (especially in mountainous regions) at 4 km. We compare a control period (2006-2010) with 50 years into the future (2056-2060). Basic results for surface climate will be presented, as well as a developing strategy for explicitly employing these results in projecting the implications for water resources in the region. Connections will also be made to other regions around the globe that could benefit from this type of integrated modeling and analysis.

Overview and Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System Version 5.2

EPA Science Inventory

A new version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, version 5.2 (CMAQv5.2), is currently being developed, with a planned release date in 2017. The new model includes numerous updates from the previous version of the model (CMAQv5.1). Specific updates include a new...

Using Rasch-models to compare the 30-, 20-, and 12-items version of the general health questionnaire taking four recoding schemes into account.

PubMed

Alexandrowicz, Rainer W; Friedrich, Fabian; Jahn, Rebecca; Soulier, Nathalie

2015-01-01

The present study compares the 30-, 20-, and 12-items versions of the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) in the original coding and four different recoding schemes (Bimodal, Chronic, Modified Likert and a newly proposed Modified Chronic) with respect to their psychometric qualities. The dichotomized versions (i.e. Bimodal, Chronic and Modified Chronic) were evaluated with the Rasch-Model and the polytomous original version and the Modified Likert version were evaluated with the Partial Credit Model. In general, the versions under consideration showed agreement with the model assumption. However, the recoded versions exhibited some deficits with respect to the Outfit index. Because of the item deficits and for theoretical reasons we argue in favor of using the any of the three length versions with the original four-categorical coding scheme. Nevertheless, any of the versions appears apt for clinical use from a psychometric perspective.

Using Seasonal Forecasting Data for Vessel Routing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Ray; Kirtman, Ben

2017-04-01

We present an assessment of seasonal forecasting of surface wind speed, significant wave height and ocean surface current speed in the North Pacific for potential use of vessel routing from Singapore to San Diego. WaveWatchIII is forced with surface winds and ocean surface currents from the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) retrospective forecasts for the period of 1982-2015. Several lead time forecasts are used from zero months to six months resulting in 2,720 model years, ensuring the findings from this study are robust. July surface wind speed and significant wave height can be skillfully forecast with a one month lead time, with the western North Pacific being the most predictable region. Beyond May initial conditions (lead time of two months) the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Spring predictability barrier limits skill of significant wave height but there is skill for surface wind speed with January initial conditions (lead time of six months). In a separate study of vessel routing between Norfolk, Virginia and Gibraltar we demonstrate the benefit of a multimodel approach using the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). In collaboration with Charles River Analytics an all-encompassing forecast is presented by using machine learning on the various ensembles which can be using used for industry applications.

Who's driving?: Separating Fire, CO2, and Climate Change Influences on Vegetation and Carbon Dynamics on MC2 Results for Western Oregon and Washington, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheehan, T.; Bachelet, D. M.; Ferschweiler, K.

2016-12-01

For Oregon and Washington west of the Cascade Mountain crest, results from the MC2 global dynamic vegetation model have projected a shift in potential vegetation type from predominantly conifer to predominantly mixed forest over the 21st century, with a shift from mixed to conifer in some areas. Carbon stocks have been projected to fall over this period. We ran MC2 using the CCSM4 RCP 8.5 climate future downscaled to 2.5 arc minute resolution with 5 different configurations: no fire; assumed ignitions without fire suppression; assumed ignitions with fire suppression; assumed ignitions with fire suppression and with CO2 concentration held at the preindustrial level; and stochastic ignitions without fire suppression. Results show that vegetation change is the result of climate change alone, while carbon is influenced by both fire occurrence and CO2-induced increased water use efficiency. While model results do not indicate a large change in carbon dynamics concomitant with the shift in vegetation, it is reasonable to expect that a change in conditions resulting in such a change in vegetation type would stress the existing vegetation resulting in some mortality and loss of live carbon.

The Global and Local Climatic Response to the Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huybers, K. M.; Singh, H.; Steiger, N. J.; Frierson, D. M.; Steig, E. J.; Bitz, C. M.

2014-12-01

Glaciologists have suggested that a relatively small external forcing may compromise the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Further, there is compelling physical evidence that the WAIS has collapsed in the past, at times when the mean global temperature was only a few degrees warmer than it is today. In addition to a rapid increase in global sea level, the collapse of the WAIS could also affect the global circulation of the atmosphere. Ice sheets are some of the largest topographic features on Earth, causing large regional anomalies in albedo and radiative balance. Our work uses idealized aquaplanet models in tandem with a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model (CCSM4) to compare the atmospheric, radiative, and oceanic response to a complete loss of the WAIS. Initial findings indicate that the loss of the WAIS leads to a weakening and equator-ward shift of the zonal winds, a development of strong zonal asymmetries in the meridional wind, and a northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. We aim to characterize how the local and global climate is affected by the presence of the WAIS, and how changes in the distribution of Southern Hemisphere ice may be represented in the proxy record.

Performance of Versions 1,2 and 3 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pawson, Steven; Stolarski, Richard S.; Nielsen, J. Eric; Duncan, Bryan N.

2008-01-01

Version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) was used in the first CCMVa1 model evaluation and forms the basis for several studies of links between ozone and the circulation. That version of the CCM was based on the GEOS-4 GCM. Versions 2 and 3 of the GEOS CCM are based on the GEOS-5 GCM, which retains the "Lin-Rood" dynamical core but has a totally different set of physical parameterizatiOns to GEOS-4. In Version 2 of the GEOS CCM the Goddard stratospheric chemistry module is retained. Difference between Versions 1 and 2 thus reflect the physics changes of the underlying GCMs. Several comparisons between these two models are made, several of which reveal improvements in Version 2 (including a more realistic representation of the interannual variability of the Antarctic vortex). In Version 3 of the GEOS CCM, the stratospheric chemistry mechanism is replaced by the "GMI COMBO" code that includes tropospheric chemistry and different computational approaches. An advantage of this model version. is the reduction of high ozone biases that prevail at low chlorine loadings in Versions 1 and 2. This poster will compare and contrast various aspects of the three model versions that are relevant for understanding interactions between ozone and climate.

Generation of High Resolution Land Surface Parameters in the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, Y.; Coleman, A. M.; Wigmosta, M. S.; Leung, L.; Huang, M.; Li, H.

2010-12-01

The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land surface model used for the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). It examines the physical, chemical, and biological processes across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Currently, efforts are being made to improve the spatial resolution of the CLM, in part, to represent finer scale hydrologic characteristics. Current land surface parameters of CLM4.0, in particular plant functional types (PFT) and leaf area index (LAI), are generated from MODIS and calculated at a 0.05 degree resolution. These MODIS-derived land surface parameters have also been aggregated to coarser resolutions (e.g., 0.5, 1.0 degrees). To evaluate the response of CLM across various spatial scales, higher spatial resolution land surface parameters need to be generated. In this study we examine the use of Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery and data fusion techniques for generating land surface parameters at a 1km resolution within the Pacific Northwest United States. . Land cover types and PFTs are classified based on Landsat multi-season spectral information, DEM, National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the USDA-NASS Crop Data Layer (CDL). For each PFT, relationships between MOD15A2 high quality LAI values, Landsat-based vegetation indices, climate variables, terrain, and laser-altimeter derived vegetation height are used to generate monthly LAI values at a 30m resolution. The high-resolution PFT and LAI data are aggregated to create a 1km model grid resolution. An evaluation and comparison of CLM land surface response at both fine and moderate scale is presented.

Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

2017-12-01

Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

2016-12-01

Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

MODEL VERSION CONTROL FOR GREAT LAKES MODELS ON UNIX SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Scientific results of the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Project were provided where atrazine was measured and modeled. The presentation also provided the model version control system which has been used for models at Grosse Ile for approximately a decade and contains various version...

Climate model uncertainty in impact assessments for agriculture: A multi-ensemble case study on maize in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dale, Amy; Fant, Charles; Strzepek, Kenneth; Lickley, Megan; Solomon, Susan

2017-03-01

We present maize production in sub-Saharan Africa as a case study in the exploration of how uncertainties in global climate change, as reflected in projections from a range of climate model ensembles, influence climate impact assessments for agriculture. The crop model AquaCrop-OS (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) was modified to run on a 2° × 2° grid and coupled to 122 climate model projections from multi-model ensembles for three emission scenarios (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 [CMIP3] SRES A1B and CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] scenarios 4.5 and 8.5) as well as two "within-model" ensembles (NCAR CCSM3 and ECHAM5/MPI-OM) designed to capture internal variability (i.e., uncertainty due to chaos in the climate system). In spite of high uncertainty, most notably in the high-producing semi-arid zones, we observed robust regional and sub-regional trends across all ensembles. In agreement with previous work, we project widespread yield losses in the Sahel region and Southern Africa, resilience in Central Africa, and sub-regional increases in East Africa and at the southern tip of the continent. Spatial patterns of yield losses corresponded with spatial patterns of aridity increases, which were explicitly evaluated. Internal variability was a major source of uncertainty in both within-model and between-model ensembles and explained the majority of the spatial distribution of uncertainty in yield projections. Projected climate change impacts on maize production in different regions and nations ranged from near-zero or positive (upper quartile estimates) to substantially negative (lower quartile estimates), highlighting a need for risk management strategies that are adaptive and robust to uncertainty.

Evaluation of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble System for Monthly and Seasonal Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.

2014-12-01

Since August 2011, the real time seasonal forecasts of the U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been made on 8th of each month by NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The participating models were NCEP/CFSv1&2, GFDL/CM2.2, NCAR/U.Miami/COLA/CCSM3, NASA/GEOS5, IRI/ ECHAM-a & ECHAM-f in the first year of the real time NMME forecast. Two Canadian coupled models CMC/CanCM3 and CM4 joined in and CFSv1 and IRI's models dropped out in the second year. The NMME team at CPC collects monthly means of three variables, precipitation, temperature at 2m and sea surface temperature from each modeling center on a 1x1 global grid, removes systematic errors, makes the grand ensemble mean in equal weight for each model mean and probability forecast with equal weight for each member of each model. This provides the NMME forecast locked in schedule for the CPC operational seasonal and monthly outlook. The basic verification metrics of seasonal and monthly prediction of NMME are calculated as an evaluation of skill, including both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for the 3-year real time (August, 2011- July 2014) period and the 30-year retrospective forecast (1982-2011) of the individual models as well as the NMME ensemble. The motivation of this study is to provide skill benchmarks for future improvements of the NMME seasonal and monthly prediction system. We also want to establish whether the real time and hindcast periods (used for bias correction in real time) are consistent. The experimental phase I of the project already supplies routine guidance to users of the NMME forecasts.

Diagnostic Evaluation of Nmme Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts for the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karlovits, G. S.; Villarini, G.; Bradley, A.; Vecchi, G. A.

2014-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal precipitation and temperature can provide information in advance of potentially costly disruptions caused by flood and drought conditions. The consequences of these adverse hydrometeorological conditions may be mitigated through informed planning and response, given useful and skillful forecasts of these conditions. However, the potential value and applicability of these forecasts is unavoidably linked to their forecast quality. In this work we evaluate the skill of four global circulation models (GCMs) part of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project in forecasting seasonal precipitation and temperature over the continental United States. The GCMs we consider are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)-CM2.1, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA-GMAO)-GEOS-5, The Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies - Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science (COLA-RSMAS)-CCSM3, Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) - CanCM4. These models are available at a resolution of 1-degree and monthly, with a minimum forecast lead time of nine months, up to one year. These model ensembles are compared against gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data created by the PRISM Climate Group, which represent the reference observation dataset in this work. Aspects of forecast quality are quantified using a diagnostic skill score decomposition that allows the evaluation of the potential skill and conditional and unconditional biases associated with these forecasts. The evaluation of the decomposed GCM forecast skill over the continental United States, by season and by lead time allows for a better understanding of the utility of these models for flood and drought predictions. Moreover, it also represents a diagnostic tool that could provide model developers feedback about strengths and weaknesses of their models.

What's new in the Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET) version 1.3

EPA Science Inventory

A new version of the Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET) has been released. The new version of AMET, version 1.3 (AMETv1.3), contains a number of updates and changes from the previous of version of AMET (v1.2) released in 2012. First, the Perl scripts used in the previous ve...

Evaluation of a new satellite-based precipitation dataset for climate studies in the Xiang River basin, Southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Q.; Xu, Y. P.; Hsu, K. L.

2017-12-01

A new satellite-based precipitation dataset, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) with long-term time series dating back to 1983 can be one valuable dataset for climate studies. This study investigates the feasibility of using PERSIANN-CDR as a reference dataset for climate studies. Sixteen CMIP5 models are evaluated over the Xiang River basin, southern China, by comparing their performance on precipitation projection and streamflow simulation, particularly on extreme precipitation and streamflow events. The results show PERSIANN-CDR is a valuable dataset for climate studies, even on extreme precipitation events. The precipitation estimates and their extreme events from CMIP5 models are improved significantly compared with rain gauge observations after bias-correction by the PERSIANN-CDR precipitation estimates. Given streamflows simulated with raw and bias-corrected precipitation estimates from 16 CMIP5 models, 10 out of 16 are improved after bias-correction. The impact of bias-correction on extreme events for streamflow simulations are unstable, with eight out of 16 models can be clearly claimed they are improved after the bias-correction. Concerning the performance of raw CMIP5 models on precipitation, IPSL-CM5A-MR excels the other CMIP5 models, while MRI-CGCM3 outperforms on extreme events with its better performance on six extreme precipitation metrics. Case studies also show that raw CCSM4, CESM1-CAM5, and MRI-CGCM3 outperform other models on streamflow simulation, while MIROC5-ESM-CHEM, MIROC5-ESM and IPSL-CM5A-MR behaves better than the other models after bias-correction.

Coupled Global-Regional Climate Model Simulations of Future Changes in Hydrology over Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oglesby, R. J.; Erickson, D. J.; Hernandez, J. L.; Irwin, D.

2005-12-01

Central America covers a relatively small area, but is topographically very complex, has long coast-lines, large inland bodies of water, and very diverse land cover which is both natural and human-induced. As a result, Central America is plagued by hydrologic extremes, especially major flooding and drought events, in a region where many people still barely manage to eke out a living through subsistence. Therefore, considerable concern exists about whether these extreme events will change, either in magnitude or in number, as climate changes in the future. To address this concern, we have used global climate model simulations of future climate change to drive a regional climate model centered on Central America. We use the IPCC `business as usual' scenario 21st century run made with the NCAR CCSM3 global model to drive the regional model MM5 at 12 km resolution. We chose the `business as usual' scenario to focus on the largest possible changes that are likely to occur. Because we are most interested in near-term changes, our simulations are for the years 2010, 2015, and 2025. A long `present-day run (for 2005) allows us to distinguish between climate variability and any signal due to climate change. Furthermore, a multi-year run with MM5 forced by NCEP reanalyses allows an assessment of how well the coupled global-regional model performs over Central America. Our analyses suggest that the coupled model does a credible job simulating the current climate and hydrologic regime, though lack of sufficient observations strongly complicates this comparison. The suite of model runs for the future years is currently nearing completion, and key results will be presented at the meeting.

High-resolution regional climate simulations of precipitation and snowpack over the US northern Rockies in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Geerts, B.; Liu, C.

2015-12-01

This work first examines the performance of a regional climate model in capturing orographic precipitation and snowpack dynamics in the northern US Rockies. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is run at a sufficiently fine resolution (4-km horizontal grid spacing), over a sub-continental domain driven by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), to examine WRF's ability to simulate the observed seasonal precipitation and snowpack dynamics. WRF retrospective simulations are being run over a 30-year period from 1980 to 2010. Observations from Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL, providing precipitation rate and snowpack snow water equivalent (SWE)) and the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM, providing fine-scale monthly mean values of precipitation and temperature) are used for validation. The results show that WRF captures observed seasonal precipitation and snowpack build-up reasonably well. The second part of this work is in progress. A pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique is used to perturb the retrospective reanalysis with the anticipated change according to the consensus global model guidance under the CMIP5 "high emissions" (RCP8.5) scenario produced by the CCSM4. This technique preserves low-frequency general circulation patterns and the characteristics of storms entering the domain. The WRF model is rerun over 30 years centered on 2050 with perturbed initial and boundary conditions. The results will be used to examine the effect of climate variability and projected global warming on the statistical distributions of precipitation amounts and SWE in the studied domain.

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.1

EPA Science Inventory

The AMAD will performed two CMAQ model simulations, one with the current publically available version of the CMAQ model (v5.0.2) and the other with the new version of the CMAQ model (v5.1). The results of each model simulation are compared to observations and the performance of t...

Preliminary Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.1

EPA Science Inventory

The AMAD will perform two annual CMAQ model simulations, one with the current publically available version of the CMAQ model (v5.0.2) and the other with the beta version of the new model (v5.1). The results of each model simulation will then be compared to observations and the pe...

Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C.

2010-09-01

Climate can strongly influence the population dynamics of disease vectors and is consequently a key component of disease ecology. Future climate change and variability may alter the location and seasonality of many disease vectors, possibly increasing the risk of disease transmission to humans. The mosquito species Culex quinquefasciatus is a concern across the southern United States because of its role as a West Nile virus vector and its affinity for urban environments. Using established relationships between atmospheric variables (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito development, we have created the Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) to simulate Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics. The model is driven with climate data and validated against mosquito count data from Pasco County, Florida and Coachella Valley, California. Using 1-week and 2-week filters, mosquito trap data are reproduced well by the model ( P < 0.0001). Dry environments in southern California produce different mosquito population trends than moist locations in Florida. Florida and California mosquito populations are generally temperature-limited in winter. In California, locations are water-limited through much of the year. Using future climate projection data generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3 general circulation model, we applied temperature and precipitation offsets to the climate data at each location to evaluate mosquito population sensitivity to possible future climate conditions. We found that temperature and precipitation shifts act interdependently to cause remarkable changes in modeled mosquito population dynamics. Impacts include a summer population decline from drying in California due to loss of immature mosquito habitats, and in Florida a decrease in late-season mosquito populations due to drier late summer conditions.

A spurious warming trend in the NMME equatorial Pacific SST hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua

2017-06-01

Using seasonal hindcasts of six different models participating in the North American Multimodel Ensemble project, the trend of the predicted sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific for 1982-2014 at each lead month and its temporal evolution with respect to the lead month are investigated for all individual models. Since the coupled models are initialized with the observed ocean, atmosphere, land states from observation-based reanalysis, some of them using their own data assimilation process, one would expect that the observed SST trend is reasonably well captured in their seasonal predictions. However, although the observed SST features a weak-cooling trend for the 33-year period with La Niña-like spatial pattern in the tropical central-eastern Pacific all year round, it is demonstrated that all models having a time-dependent realistic concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) display a warming trend in the equatorial Pacific that amplifies as the lead-time increases. In addition, these models' behaviors are nearly independent of the starting month of the hindcasts although the growth rates of the trend vary with the lead month. This key characteristic of the forecasted SST trend in the equatorial Pacific is also identified in the NCAR CCSM3 hindcasts that have the GHG concentration for a fixed year. This suggests that a global warming forcing may not play a significant role in generating the spurious warming trend of the coupled models' SST hindcasts in the tropical Pacific. This model SST trend in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, which is opposite to the observed one, causes a developing El Niño-like warming bias in the forecasted SST with its peak in boreal winter. Its implications for seasonal prediction are discussed.

NETPATH-WIN: an interactive user version of the mass-balance model, NETPATH

USGS Publications Warehouse

El-Kadi, A. I.; Plummer, Niel; Aggarwal, P.

2011-01-01

NETPATH-WIN is an interactive user version of NETPATH, an inverse geochemical modeling code used to find mass-balance reaction models that are consistent with the observed chemical and isotopic composition of waters from aquatic systems. NETPATH-WIN was constructed to migrate NETPATH applications into the Microsoft WINDOWS® environment. The new version facilitates model utilization by eliminating difficulties in data preparation and results analysis of the DOS version of NETPATH, while preserving all of the capabilities of the original version. Through example applications, the note describes some of the features of NETPATH-WIN as applied to adjustment of radiocarbon data for geochemical reactions in groundwater systems.

Heliport noise model (HNM) version 1 user's guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1988-02-01

This document contains the instructions to execute the Heliport Noise Model (HNM), Version 1. HNM Version 1 is a computer tool for determining the total impact of helicopter noise at and around heliports. The model runs on IBM PC/XT/AT personal compu...

A Descriptive Evaluation of Automated Software Cost-Estimation Models,

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-10-01

Version 1.03D) * PCOC (Version 7.01) - PRICE S • SLIM (Version 1.1) • SoftCost (Version 5. 1) * SPQR /20 (Version 1. 1) - WICOMO (Version 1.3) These...produce detailed GANTT and PERT charts. SPQR /20 is based on a cost model developed at ITT. In addition to cost, schedule, and staffing estimates, it...cases and test runs required, and the effectiveness of pre-test and test activities. SPQR /20 also predicts enhancement and maintenance activities. C

Indo-Pacific Variability on Seasonal to Multidecadal Time Scales. Part I: Intrinsic SST Modes in Models and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slawinska, Joanna; Giannakis, Dimitrios

2017-07-01

The variability of Indo-Pacific SST on seasonal to multidecadal timescales is investigated using a recently introduced technique called nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA). Through this technique, drawbacks associated with ad hoc pre-filtering of the input data are avoided, enabling recovery of low-frequency and intermittent modes not previously accessible via classical approaches. Here, a multiscale hierarchy of spatiotemporal modes is identified for Indo-Pacific SST in millennial control runs of CCSM4 and CM3 and in HadISST data. On interannual timescales, a mode with spatiotemporal patterns corresponding to the fundamental component of ENSO emerges, along with ENSO-modulated annual modes consistent with combination mode theory. The ENSO combination modes also feature prominent activity in the Indian Ocean, explaining significant fraction of the SST variance in regions associated with the Indian Ocean dipole. A pattern resembling the tropospheric biennial oscillation emerges in addition to ENSO and the associated combination modes. On multidecadal timescales, the dominant NLSA mode in the model data is predominantly active in the western tropical Pacific. The interdecadal Pacific oscillation also emerges as a distinct NLSA mode, though with smaller explained variance than the western Pacific multidecadal mode. Analogous modes on interannual and decadal timescales are also identified in HadISST data for the industrial era, as well as in model data of comparable timespan, though decadal modes are either absent or of degraded quality in these datasets.

Spectral Classes for FAA's Integrated Noise Model Version 6.0.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-12-07

The starting point in any empirical model such as the Federal Aviation Administrations (FAA) : Integrated Noise Model (INM) is a reference data base. In Version 5.2 and in previous versions : the reference data base consisted solely of a set of no...

Precipitation event tracking reveals that precipitation characteristics respond differently under seasonal, interannual, and anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C.; Chang, W.; Kong, W.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Stein, M.; Moyer, E. J.

2017-12-01

Change in precipitation characteristics is an especially concerning potential impact of climate change, and both model and observational studies suggest that increases in precipitation intensity are likely. However, studies to date have focused on mean accumulated precipitation rather than on the characteristics of individual events. We report here on a study using a novel rainstorm identification tracking algorithm (Chang et al. 2016) that allows evaluating changes in spatio-temporal characteristics of events. We analyze high-resolution precipitation from dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over the continental U.S. (WRF driven by CCSM4) of present and future climate conditions. We show that precipitation events show distinct characteristic changes for natural seasonal and interannual variations and for anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. In all cases, wetter seasons/years/future climate states are associated with increased precipitation intensity, but other precipitation characteristics respond differently to the different drivers. For example, under anthropogenic forcing, future wetter climate states involve smaller individual event sizes (partially offsetting their increased intensity). Under natural variability, however, wetter years involve larger mean event sizes. Event identification and tracking algorithms thus allow distinguishing drivers of different types of precipitation changes, and in relating those changes to large-scale processes.

Application of Seasonal CRM Integrations to Develop Statistics and Improved GCM Parameterization of Subgrid Cloud-Radiation Interactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiaoqing Wu; Xin-Zhong Liang; Sunwook Park

2007-01-23

The works supported by this ARM project lay the solid foundation for improving the parameterization of subgrid cloud-radiation interactions in the NCAR CCSM and the climate simulations. We have made a significant use of CRM simulations and concurrent ARM observations to produce long-term, consistent cloud and radiative property datasets at the cloud scale (Wu et al. 2006, 2007). With these datasets, we have investigated the mesoscale enhancement of cloud systems on surface heat fluxes (Wu and Guimond 2006), quantified the effects of cloud horizontal inhomogeneity and vertical overlap on the domain-averaged radiative fluxes (Wu and Liang 2005), and subsequently validatedmore » and improved the physically-based mosaic treatment of subgrid cloud-radiation interactions (Liang and Wu 2005). We have implemented the mosaic treatment into the CCM3. The 5-year (1979-1983) AMIP-type simulation showed significant impacts of subgrid cloud-radiation interaction on the climate simulations (Wu and Liang 2005). We have actively participated in CRM intercomparisons that foster the identification and physical understanding of common errors in cloud-scale modeling (Xie et al. 2005; Xu et al. 2005, Grabowski et al. 2005).« less

Dynamic coupling of regional atmosphere to biosphere in the new generation regional climate system model REMO-iMOVE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, C.; Rechid, D.; Jacob, D.

2013-05-01

The main objective of this study is the coupling of the regional climate model REMO to a 3rd generation land surface scheme and the evaluation of the new model version of REMO, called REMO with interactive MOsaic-based VEgetation: REMO-iMOVE. Attention is paid to the documentation of the technical aspects of the new model constituents and the coupling mechanism. We compare simulation results of REMO-iMOVE and of the reference version REMO2009, to investigate the sensitivity of the regional model to the new land surface scheme. An 11 yr climate model run (1995-2005), forced with ECMWF ERA-Interim lateral boundary conditions, over Europe in 0.44° resolution of both model versions was carried out, to represent present day European climate. The result of these experiments are compared to multiple temperature, precipitation, heat flux and leaf area index observation data, to determine the differences in the model versions. The new model version has further the ability to model net primary productivity for the given plant functional types. This new feature is thoroughly evaluated by literature values of net primary productivity of different plant species in European climatic regions. The new model version REMO-iMOVE is able to model the European climate in the same quality as the parent model version REMO2009 does. The differences in the results of the two model versions stem from the differences in the dynamics of vegetation cover and density and can be distinct in some regions, due to the influences of these parameters to the surface heat and moisture fluxes. The modeled inter-annual variability in the phenology as well as the net primary productivity lays in the range of observations and literature values for most European regions. This study also reveals the need for a more sophisticated soil moisture representation in the newly developed model version REMO-iMOVE to be able to treat the differences in plant functional types. This gets especially important if the model will be used in dynamic vegetation studies.

Supplement to The User's Guide for The Stand Prognosis Model-version 5.0

Treesearch

William R. Wykoff

1986-01-01

Differences between Prognosis Model versions 4.0 and 5.0 are described. Additions to version 5.0 include an event monitor that schedules activities contingent on stand characteristics, a regeneration establishment model that predicts the structure of the regeneration stand following treatment, and a COVER model that predicts shrub development and total canopy cover....

Review and verification of CARE 3 mathematical model and code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rose, D. M.; Altschul, R. E.; Manke, J. W.; Nelson, D. L.

1983-01-01

The CARE-III mathematical model and code verification performed by Boeing Computer Services were documented. The mathematical model was verified for permanent and intermittent faults. The transient fault model was not addressed. The code verification was performed on CARE-III, Version 3. A CARE III Version 4, which corrects deficiencies identified in Version 3, is being developed.

BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 5.0: Variables

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews

2009-01-01

This publication has been revised to reflect updates to version 4.0 of the BehavePlus software. It was originally published as the BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 4.0: Variables in July, 2008.The BehavePlus fire modeling system is a computer program based on mathematical models that describe wildland fire behavior and effects and the...

Versions of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides a brief chronology of changes made to EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), organized by WARM version number. The page includes brief summaries of changes and updates since the previous version.

Versions of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

2017-02-14

This page provides a brief chronology of changes made to EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), organized by WARM version number. The page includes brief summaries of changes and updates since the previous version.

Mineral dust transport and deposition to Antarctica: a climate model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albani, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Maggi, V.; Delmonte, B.

2009-04-01

Windblown mineral dust is a useful proxy for paleoclimates. Its life cycle is determined by climate conditions in the source areas, and following the hydrological cycle, and the intensity and dynamics of the atmospheric circulation. In addition aeolian dust itself is an active component of the climate system, influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere through its interaction with incoming solar radiation and outgoing planetary radiation. The mineral aerosols also have indirect effects on climate, and are linked to interactions with cloud microphysics and atmospheric chemistry as well as to dust's role of carrier of iron and other elements that constitute limitating nutrients for phytoplancton to remote ocean areas. We use climate model (CCSM) simulations that include a scheme for dust mobilization, transport and deposition in order to describe the evolution of dust deposition in some Antarctic ice cores sites where mineral dust records are available. Our focus is to determine the source apportionment for dust deposited to Antarctica under current and Last Glacial Maximum climate conditions, as well as to give an insight in the spatial features of transport patterns. The understanding of spatial and temporal representativeness of an ice core record is crucial to determine its value as a proxy of past climates and a necessary step in order to produce a global picture of how the dust component of the climate system has changed through time.

Assesment of future river habitat suitability under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy (Serio River, Italian Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groppelli, B.; Confortola, G.; Soncini, A.; Bocchiola, D.; Rosso, R.

2011-12-01

We merge hydraulic river modelling, use of suitability functions for fish guild colonization and hydrological modelling of catchment response to investigate future (until 2100) hydrological cycle and fish habitat suitability for an Alpine catchment in Italy, Serio river (drainage area 450 Km2, average altitude 1300 m a.s.l., main channel length ca. 36 km). Based upon detailed river channel morphology data for 73 river sections and direct local investigation we then set up and tune a quasi 2-D (i.e. with floodplains) hydraulic model for in channel flows hydraulics, depending upon daily in stream discharge. We then evaluate distributed values of hydraulic variables and therein composite habitat suitability indexes CS for a representative target species (brown trout, Salmo Trutta Fario L.), resulting into usable wetted area WUA for fish colonization. We consider both juvenile JUV and adults AD, and we evaluate the frequency (days in a year/season) of yearly/seasonal, spatially distributed and bulk (whole stream) habitat quality. We then provide synthetic indicators of (yearly/seasonal) suitability level and duration within the river. We then set up a minimal (T, P), properly tuned hydrological model able to mimick Serio river's hydrological cycle. We then use downscaled future precipitation and temperature from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base chosen for the purpose based upon previous studies, to feed our hydrological model and provide projected hydrological regime of the catchment, together with modified habitat suitability. We then comment upon modified flow regime, habitat suitability as obtained and related uncertainty. The proposed results may be of use for river managers and may provide a template for investigation about future river habitat quality pending climate change.

Simulation of modern climate with the new version of the INM RAS climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volodin, E. M.; Mortikov, E. V.; Kostrykin, S. V.; Galin, V. Ya.; Lykosov, V. N.; Gritsun, A. S.; Diansky, N. A.; Gusev, A. V.; Yakovlev, N. G.

2017-03-01

The INMCM5.0 numerical model of the Earth's climate system is presented, which is an evolution from the previous version, INMCM4.0. A higher vertical resolution for the stratosphere is applied in the atmospheric block. Also, we raised the upper boundary of the calculating area, added the aerosol block, modified parameterization of clouds and condensation, and increased the horizontal resolution in the ocean block. The program implementation of the model was also updated. We consider the simulation of the current climate using the new version of the model. Attention is focused on reducing systematic errors as compared to the previous version, reproducing phenomena that could not be simulated correctly in the previous version, and modeling the problems that remain unresolved.

A framework for modeling anthropogenic impacts on waterbird habitats: addressing future uncertainty in conservation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Young, Charles A.; Purkey, David R.

2015-01-01

The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CVwh) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CVwh indicated varying levels of impact caused by projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management in scenarios used to exemplify this approach. Among scenarios, the NCAR-CCSM3 A2 climate projection had a greater impact than the CNRM-CM3 B1 climate projection, whereas expansive urbanization had a greater impact than strategic urbanization, on annual availability of waterbird habitat. Scenarios including extensive rice-idling or substantial instream flow requirements on important water supply sources produced large impacts on annual availability of waterbird habitat. In the year corresponding with the greatest habitat reduction for each scenario, the scenario including instream flow requirements resulted in the greatest decrease in habitats throughout all months of the wintering period relative to other scenarios. This approach provides a new and useful tool for habitat conservation planning in the Central Valley and a model to guide similar research investigations aiming to inform conservation, management, and restoration of important wildlife habitats.

The Benefits of Latent Variable Modeling to Develop Norms for a Translated Version of a Standardized Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seo, Hyojeong; Shaw, Leslie A.; Shogren, Karrie A.; Lang, Kyle M.; Little, Todd D.

2017-01-01

This article demonstrates the use of structural equation modeling to develop norms for a translated version of a standardized scale, the Supports Intensity Scale-Children's Version (SIS-C). The latent variable norming method proposed is useful when the standardization sample for a translated version is relatively small to derive norms…

Evolution of errors in the altimetric bathymetry model used by Google Earth and GEBCO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marks, K. M.; Smith, W. H. F.; Sandwell, D. T.

2010-09-01

We analyze errors in the global bathymetry models of Smith and Sandwell that combine satellite altimetry with acoustic soundings and shorelines to estimate depths. Versions of these models have been incorporated into Google Earth and the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO). We use Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) multibeam surveys not previously incorporated into the models as "ground truth" to compare against model versions 7.2 through 12.1, defining vertical differences as "errors." Overall error statistics improve over time: 50th percentile errors declined from 57 to 55 to 49 m, and 90th percentile errors declined from 257 to 235 to 219 m, in versions 8.2, 11.1 and 12.1. This improvement is partly due to an increasing number of soundings incorporated into successive models, and partly to improvements in the satellite gravity model. Inspection of specific sites reveals that changes in the algorithms used to interpolate across survey gaps with altimetry have affected some errors. Versions 9.1 through 11.1 show a bias in the scaling from gravity in milliGals to topography in meters that affected the 15-160 km wavelength band. Regionally averaged (>160 km wavelength) depths have accumulated error over successive versions 9 through 11. These problems have been mitigated in version 12.1, which shows no systematic variation of errors with depth. Even so, version 12.1 is in some respects not as good as version 8.2, which employed a different algorithm.

2011 Version 6.3 Technical Support Document

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This TSD describes how the emission inventories were prepared for air quality modeling for the years 2011, 2017, and 2025 using the 2011, version 6.2 emissions modeling platform, which is based on the 2011 National Emissions Inventory, Version 3

2011 Version 6.2 Technical Support Document

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This TSD describes how the emission inventories were prepared for air quality modeling for the years 2011, 2017, and 2025 using the 2011, version 6.2 emissions modeling platform, which is based on the 2011 National Emissions Inventory, Version 2.

2011 Version 6.1 Technical Support Document

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This TSD describes how the emission inventories were prepared for air quality modeling for the years 2011, 2018, and 2025 using the 2011, version 6.1 emissions modeling platform, which is based on the 2011 National Emissions Inventory, Version 1.

2011 Version 6.0 Technical Support Document

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This TSD describes how the emission inventories were prepared for air quality modeling for the years 2011, 2018, and 2025 using the 2011, version 6.0 emissions modeling platform, which is based on the 2011 National Emissions Inventory, Version 1

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios

PubMed Central

Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J.; Phelps, Nicholas B. D.

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species’ suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain. PMID:28704433

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios.

PubMed

Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Escobar, Luis E; Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J; Phelps, Nicholas B D

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species' suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain.

2007 Version 5.0 Technical Support Document

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Preparation of Emissions Inventories for the Version 5.0, 2007 Emissions Modeling Platform describes how emissions based on the 2008 NEI, version 2 and were processed to represent the year 2007 in support of air quality modeling of the PM NAAQS.

INM, integrated noise model, version 4.11 : user's guide, supplement

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-12-01

The Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, in support of the Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy, has developed Version 4.11 of the Integrated Noise Model (INM). This User's Guide is a supplement to INM, Version 3...

Climate Modelling Shows Increased Risk to Eucalyptus sideroxylon on the Eastern Coast of Australia Compared to Eucalyptus albens

PubMed Central

Shabani, Farzin; Ahmadi, Mohsen

2017-01-01

Aim: To identify the extent and direction of range shift of Eucalyptus sideroxylon and E. albens in Australia by 2050 through an ensemble forecast of four species distribution models (SDMs). Each was generated using four global climate models (GCMs), under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Location: Australia. Methods: We used four SDMs of (i) generalized linear model, (ii) MaxEnt, (iii) random forest, and (iv) boosted regression tree to construct SDMs for species E. sideroxylon and E. albens under four GCMs including (a) MRI-CGCM3, (b) MIROC5, (c) HadGEM2-AO and (d) CCSM4, under two RCPs of 4.5 and 6.0. Here, the true skill statistic (TSS) index was used to assess the accuracy of each SDM. Results: Results showed that E. albens and E. sideroxylon will lose large areas of their current suitable range by 2050 and E. sideroxylon is projected to gain in eastern and southeastern Australia. Some areas were also projected to remain suitable for each species between now and 2050. Our modelling showed that E. sideroxylon will lose suitable habitat on the western side and will not gain any on the eastern side because this region is one the most heavily populated areas in the country, and the populated areas are moving westward. The predicted decrease in E. sideroxylon’s distribution suggests that land managers should monitor its population closely, and evaluate whether it meets criteria for a protected legal status. Main conclusions: Both Eucalyptus sideroxylon and E. albens will be negatively affected by climate change and it is projected that E. sideroxylon will be at greater risk of losing habitat than E. albens. PMID:29186755

Circumpolar arctic tundra biomass and productivity dynamics in response to projected climate change and herbivory.

PubMed

Yu, Qin; Epstein, Howard; Engstrom, Ryan; Walker, Donald

2017-09-01

Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general 'greening' trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production (NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets-occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Neuraxial blockade for external cephalic version: Cost analysis.

PubMed

Yamasato, Kelly; Kaneshiro, Bliss; Salcedo, Jennifer

2015-07-01

Neuraxial blockade (epidural or spinal anesthesia/analgesia) with external cephalic version increases the external cephalic version success rate. Hospitals and insurers may affect access to neuraxial blockade for external cephalic version, but the costs to these institutions remain largely unstudied. The objective of this study was to perform a cost analysis of neuraxial blockade use during external cephalic version from hospital and insurance payer perspectives. Secondarily, we estimated the effect of neuraxial blockade on cesarean delivery rates. A decision-analysis model was developed using costs and probabilities occurring prenatally through the delivery hospital admission. Model inputs were derived from the literature, national databases, and local supply costs. Univariate and bivariate sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess model robustness. Neuraxial blockade was cost saving to both hospitals ($30 per delivery) and insurers ($539 per delivery) using baseline estimates. From both perspectives, however, the model was sensitive to multiple variables. Monte Carlo simulation indicated neuraxial blockade to be more costly in approximately 50% of scenarios. The model demonstrated that routine use of neuraxial blockade during external cephalic version, compared to no neuraxial blockade, prevented 17 cesarean deliveries for every 100 external cephalic versions attempted. Neuraxial blockade is associated with minimal hospital and insurer cost changes in the setting of external cephalic version, while reducing the cesarean delivery rate. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research © 2015 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Neuraxial blockade for external cephalic version: Cost analysis

PubMed Central

Yamasato, Kelly; Kaneshiro, Bliss; Salcedo, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Aim Neuraxial blockade (epidural or spinal anesthesia/analgesia) with external cephalic version increases the external cephalic version success rate. Hospitals and insurers may affect access to neuraxial blockade for external cephalic version, but the costs to these institutions remain largely unstudied. The objective of this study was to perform a cost analysis of neuraxial blockade use during external cephalic version from hospital and insurance payer perspectives. Secondarily, we estimated the effect of neuraxial blockade on cesarean delivery rates. Methods A decision–analysis model was developed using costs and probabilities occurring prenatally through the delivery hospital admission. Model inputs were derived from the literature, national databases, and local supply costs. Univariate and bivariate sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess model robustness. Results Neuraxial blockade was cost saving to both hospitals ($30 per delivery) and insurers ($539 per delivery) using baseline estimates. From both perspectives, however, the model was sensitive to multiple variables. Monte Carlo simulation indicated neuraxial blockade to be more costly in approximately 50% of scenarios. The model demonstrated that routine use of neuraxial blockade during external cephalic version, compared to no neuraxial blockade, prevented 17 cesarean deliveries for every 100 external cephalic versions attempted. Conclusions Neuraxial blockade is associated with minimal hospital and insurer cost changes in the setting of external cephalic version, while reducing the cesarean delivery rate. PMID:25771920

An event-version-based spatio-temporal modeling approach and its application in the cadastral management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yangdong; Han, Zhen; Liao, Zhongping

2009-10-01

Spatiality, temporality, legality, accuracy and continuality are characteristic of cadastral information, and the cadastral management demands that the cadastral data should be accurate, integrated and updated timely. It's a good idea to build an effective GIS management system to manage the cadastral data which are characterized by spatiality and temporality. Because no sound spatio-temporal data models have been adopted, however, the spatio-temporal characteristics of cadastral data are not well expressed in the existing cadastral management systems. An event-version-based spatio-temporal modeling approach is first proposed from the angle of event and version. Then with the help of it, an event-version-based spatio-temporal cadastral data model is built to represent spatio-temporal cadastral data. At last, the previous model is used in the design and implementation of a spatio-temporal cadastral management system. The result of the application of the system shows that the event-version-based spatio-temporal data model is very suitable for the representation and organization of cadastral data.

Comparison of experiment with calculations using curvature-corrected zero and two equation turbulence models for a two-dimensional U-duct

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monson, D. J.; Seegmiller, H. L.; McConnaughey, P. K.

1990-06-01

In this paper experimental measurements are compared with Navier-Stokes calculations using seven different turbulence models for the internal flow in a two-dimensional U-duct. The configuration is representative of many internal flows of engineering interst that experience strong curvature. In an effort to improve agreement, this paper tests several versions of the two-equation k-epsilon turbulence model including the standard version, an extended version with a production range time scale, and a version that includes curvature time scales. Each is tested in its high and low Reynolds number formulations. Calculations using these new models and the original mixing length model are compared here with measurements of mean and turbulence velocities, static pressure and skin friction in the U-duct at two Reynolds numbers. The comparisons show that only the low Reynolds number version of the extended k-epsilon model does a reasonable job of predicting the important features of this flow at both Reynolds numbers tested.

Solar Advisor Model User Guide for Version 2.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilman, P.; Blair, N.; Mehos, M.

2008-08-01

The Solar Advisor Model (SAM) provides a consistent framework for analyzing and comparing power system costs and performance across the range of solar technologies and markets, from photovoltaic systems for residential and commercial markets to concentrating solar power and large photovoltaic systems for utility markets. This manual describes Version 2.0 of the software, which can model photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies for electric applications for several markets. The current version of the Solar Advisor Model does not model solar heating and lighting technologies.

CARE 3, Version 4 enhancements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bryant, L. A.; Stiffler, J. J.

1985-01-01

The enhancements and error corrections to CARE III Version 4 are listed. All changes to Version 4 with the exception of the internal redundancy model were implemented in Version 5. Version 4 is the first public release version for execution on the CDC Cyber 170 series computers. Version 5 is the second release version and it is written in ANSI standard FORTRAN 77 for execution on the DEC VAX 11/700 series computers and many others.

COMPUTATIONAL ASPECTS OF THE AIR QUALITY FORECASTING VERSION OF CMAQ (CMAQ-F)

EPA Science Inventory

The air quality forecast version of the Community Modeling Air Quality (CMAQ) model (CMAQ-F) was developed from the public release version of CMAQ (available from http://www.cmascenter.org), and is running operationally at the National Weather Service's National Centers for Envir...

Aircraft/Air Traffic Management Functional Analysis Model. Version 2.0; User's Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Etheridge, Melvin; Plugge, Joana; Retina, Nusrat

1998-01-01

The Aircraft/Air Traffic Management Functional Analysis Model, Version 2.0 (FAM 2.0), is a discrete event simulation model designed to support analysis of alternative concepts in air traffic management and control. FAM 2.0 was developed by the Logistics Management Institute (LMI) a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) contract. This document provides a guide for using the model in analysis. Those interested in making enhancements or modification to the model should consult the companion document, Aircraft/Air Traffic Management Functional Analysis Model, Version 2.0 Technical Description.

Parallel computation for biological sequence comparison: comparing a portable model to the native model for the Intel Hypercube.

PubMed

Nadkarni, P M; Miller, P L

1991-01-01

A parallel program for inter-database sequence comparison was developed on the Intel Hypercube using two models of parallel programming. One version was built using machine-specific Hypercube parallel programming commands. The other version was built using Linda, a machine-independent parallel programming language. The two versions of the program provide a case study comparing these two approaches to parallelization in an important biological application area. Benchmark tests with both programs gave comparable results with a small number of processors. As the number of processors was increased, the Linda version was somewhat less efficient. The Linda version was also run without change on Network Linda, a virtual parallel machine running on a network of desktop workstations.

A Study of the Climate Change during 21st Century over Peninsular Malaysia Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavvas, M. L.; Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2016-12-01

15 coarse-resolution (150 - 300 km) climate projections for the 21st century by 3 different coupled land-atmosphere-ocean GCMs (ECHAM5 of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology of Germany, CCSM3 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) of the United States, and MRI-CGCM2.3.2 of the Meteorological Research Institute of Japan) under 4 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (B1, A1B, A2, A1FI) were dynamically downscaled at hourly intervals by a regional hydro-climate model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) that consisted of Regional Atmospheric Model MM5 that was coupled with WEHY watershed hydrology model over Peninsular Malaysia (PM), at the scale of the hillslopes of 13 selected watersheds (Batu Pahat, Johor, Muda, Kelang, Kelantan, Linggi, Muar, Pahang, Perak, Selangor, Dungun, Kemaman and Kuantan) and 12 selected intervening coastal regions in order to assess the impact of climate change on the climate conditions at the selected watersheds and coastal regions of PM. From the downscaled climate projections it can be concluded that the mean annual precipitation gradually increases toward the end of the 21st century over each of the 13 watersheds and the 12 coastal regions. The basin-average mean annual temperature increases in the range of 2.50C - 2.950C over PM during the 2010 -2100 period when compared to the 1970-2000 historical period. The ensemble average basin-average annual potential evapotranspiration increases gradually throughout the 21st century over all watersheds.

Modeling Forest Composition and Carbon Dynamics Under Projected Climate-Fire Interactions in the Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, S.; Hurteau, M. D.; Westerling, A. L.

2014-12-01

The Sierra Nevada Mountains are occupied by a diversity of forest types that sort by elevation. The interaction of changing climate and altered disturbance regimes (e.g. fire) has the potential to drive changes in forest distribution as a function of species-specific response. Quantifying the effects of these drivers on species distributions and productivity under future climate-fire interactions is necessary for informing mitigation and adaptation efforts. In this study, we assimilated forest inventory and soil survey data and species life history traits into a landscape model, LANDIS-II, to quantify the response of forest dynamics to the interaction of climate change and large wildfire frequency in the Sierra Nevada. We ran 100-year simulations forced with historical climate and climate projections from three models (GFDL, CNRM and CCSM3) driven by the A2 emission scenario. We found that non-growing season NPP is greatly enhanced by 15%-150%, depending on the specific climate projection. The greatest increase occurs in subalpine forests. Species-specific response varied as a function of life history characteristics. The distribution of drought and fire-tolerant species, such as ponderosa pine, expanded by 7.3-9.6% from initial conditions, while drought and fire-intolerant species, such as white fir, showed little change in the absence of fire. Changes in wildfire size and frequency influence species distributions by altering the successional stage of burned patches. The range of responses to different climate models demonstrates the sensitivity of these forests to climate variability. The scale of climate projections relative to the scale of forest simulations presents a source of uncertainty, particularly at the ecotone between forest types and for identifying topographically mediated climate refugia. Improving simulations will likely require higher resolution climate projections.

Coupled Climate Model Simulations to Bracket the Impacts of Increasing Asian Aerosols Emissions and Aggressive Future Clean Air Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubey, M. K.; Zhang, Y.; Sun, S.; Olsen, S.; Dean, S.; Bleck, R.; Chylek, P.; Lohmann, U.

2007-12-01

We report ensemble simulations of the climatic impacts of changing anthropogenic aerosols (sulfate, organic and black carbon), which bracket two policy scenarios: increased emissions over China and India by a factor of three over current levels and a global reduction of aerosols by a factor of ten, using the NCAR-CCSM3 and NASA- GISS coupled ocean atmosphere models. Tripling the anthropogenic aerosols over China and India has a small cooling effect (about -0.12°C) on the global mean surface air temperature with a slight reduction in global mean precipitation by ~ -0.8%. On the other hand, global reduction of anthropogenic aerosols by a factor of ten would warm the global surface temperatures by 0.4 °C - 0.8 °C in less than 10 years after the reduction takes place as well as an increase in global precipitation by 3.0% - 3.3%. Comparisons of NCAR and NASA model simulations also suggest that the indirect effects of aerosols are about 1-2 times the direct effects of aerosols. Tripling Asian anthropogenic aerosols results in regional cooling and a reduction in precipitation primarily in Asia, with cooling (warming) also noted over the high latitudes of Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Warming and increase in precipitation in the case of global reduction of aerosols are concentrated mainly over polluted land areas in both hemispheres. Tropical regions experience large changes in precipitation in both scenarios. We provide new insights into the climate model sensitivities of global mean temperatures and rainfall to aerosol forcing. Our results underscore the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas accumulation rates as the world reduces air pollution to improve human health and that potential increased Asian pollution, offsets only a small fraction of the warming by greenhouse gases.

An integrated crop model and GIS decision support system for assisting agronomic decision making under climate change.

PubMed

Kadiyala, M D M; Nedumaran, S; Singh, Piara; S, Chukka; Irshad, Mohammad A; Bantilan, M C S

2015-07-15

The semi-arid tropical (SAT) regions of India are suffering from low productivity which may be further aggravated by anticipated climate change. The present study analyzes the spatial variability of climate change impacts on groundnut yields in the Anantapur district of India and examines the relative contribution of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a web based decision support tool that integrates crop simulation model and Geographical Information System (GIS) was developed to assist agronomic decision making and this tool can be scalable to any location and crop. The climate change projections of five global climate models (GCMs) relative to the 1980-2010 baseline for Anantapur district indicates an increase in rainfall activity to the tune of 10.6 to 25% during Mid-century period (2040-69) with RCP 8.5. The GCMs also predict warming exceeding 1.4 to 2.4°C by 2069 in the study region. The spatial crop responses to the projected climate indicate a decrease in groundnut yields with four GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) and a contrasting 6.3% increase with the GCM, GFDL-ESM2M. The simulation studies using CROPGRO-Peanut model reveals that groundnut yields can be increased on average by 1.0%, 5.0%, 14.4%, and 20.2%, by adopting adaptation options of heat tolerance, drought tolerant cultivars, supplemental irrigation and a combination of drought tolerance cultivar and supplemental irrigation respectively. The spatial patterns of relative benefits of adaptation options were geographically different and the greatest benefits can be achieved by adopting new cultivars having drought tolerance and with the application of one supplemental irrigation at 60days after sowing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model.

PubMed

Shafer, Sarah L; Bartlein, Patrick J; Gray, Elizabeth M; Pelltier, Richard T

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0-58.0°N latitude by 136.6-103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070-2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Prediction of the Length of Upcoming Solar Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakad, Bharati; Kakad, Amar; Ramesh, Durbha Sai

2017-12-01

The forecast of solar cycle (SC) characteristics is crucial particularly for several space-based missions. In the present study, we propose a new model for predicting the length of the SC. The model uses the information of the width of an autocorrelation function that is derived from the daily sunspot data for each SC. We tested the model on Versions 1 and 2 of the daily international sunspot number data for SCs 10 - 24. We found that the autocorrelation width Aw n of SC n during the second half of its ascending phase correlates well with the modified length that is defined as T_{cy}^{n+2} - Tan. Here T_{cy}^{n+2} and T_{ a}n are the length and ascent time of SCs n+2 and n, respectively. The estimated correlation coefficient between the model parameters is 0.93 (0.91) for Version 1 (Version 2) sunspot series. The standard errors in the observed and predicted lengths of the SCs for Version 1 and Version 2 data are 0.38 and 0.44 years, respectively. The advantage of the proposed model is that the predictions of the length of the upcoming two SCs ( i.e., n+1, n+2) are readily available at the time of the peak of SC n. The present model gives a forecast of 11.01, 10.52, and 11.91 years (11.01, 12.20, and 11.68 years) for the length of SCs 24, 25, and 26, respectively, for Version 1 (Version 2).

Spatio-energetic cross-talk in photon counting detectors: Numerical detector model (PcTK) and workflow for CT image quality assessment.

PubMed

Taguchi, Katsuyuki; Stierstorfer, Karl; Polster, Christoph; Lee, Okkyun; Kappler, Steffen

2018-05-01

The interpixel cross-talk of energy-sensitive photon counting x-ray detectors (PCDs) has been studied and an analytical model (version 2.1) has been developed for double-counting between neighboring pixels due to charge sharing and K-shell fluorescence x-ray emission followed by its reabsorption (Taguchi K, et al., Medical Physics 2016;43(12):6386-6404). While the model version 2.1 simulated the spectral degradation well, it had the following problems that has been found to be significant recently: (1) The spectrum is inaccurate with smaller pixel sizes; (2) the charge cloud size must be smaller than the pixel size; (3) the model underestimates the spectrum/counts for 10-40 keV; and (4) the model version 2.1 cannot handlen-tuple-counting withn > 2 (i.e., triple-counting or higher). These problems are inherent to the design of the model version 2.1; therefore, we developed a new model and addressed these problems in this study. We propose a new PCD cross-talk model (version 3.2; Pc TK for "photon counting toolkit") that is based on a completely different design concept from the previous version. It uses a numerical approach and starts with a 2-D model of charge sharing (as opposed to an analytical approach and a 1-D model with version 2.1) and addresses all of the four problems. The model takes the following factors into account: (1) shift-variant electron density of the charge cloud (Gaussian-distributed), (2) detection efficiency, (3) interactions between photons and PCDs via photoelectric effect, and (4) electronic noise. Correlated noisy PCD data can be generated using either a multivariate normal random number generator or a Poisson random number generator. The effect of the two parameters, the effective charge cloud diameter (d 0 ) and pixel size (d pix ), was studied and results were compared with Monte Carlo simulations and the previous model version 2.1. Finally, a script for the workflow for CT image quality assessment has been developed, which started with a few material density images, generated material-specific sinogram (line integrals) data, noisy PCD data with spectral distortion using the model version 3.2, and reconstructed PCD- CT images for four energy windows. The model version 3.2 addressed all of the four problems listed above. The spectra withd pix  = 56-113 μm agreed with that of Medipix3 detector withd pix  = 55-110 μm without charge summing mode qualitatively. The counts for 10-40 keV were larger than the previous model (version 2.1) and agreed with MC simulations very well (root-mean-square difference values with model version 3.2 were decreased to 16%-67% of the values with version 2.1). There were many non-zero off-diagonal elements withn-tuple-counting withn > 2 in the normalized covariance matrix of 3 × 3 neighboring pixels. Reconstructed images showed biases and artifacts attributed to the spectral distortion due to the charge sharing and fluorescence x rays. We have developed a new PCD model for spatio-energetic cross-talk and correlation between PCD pixels. The workflow demonstrated the utility of the model for general or task-specific image quality assessments for the PCD- CT.Note: The program (Pc TK) and the workflow scripts have been made available to academic researchers. Interested readers should visit the website (pctk.jhu.edu) or contact the corresponding author. © 2018 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

TSARINA: A Computer Model for Assessing Conventional and Chemical Attacks on Airbases

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

IV, and has been updated to FORTRAN 77; it has been adapted to various computer systems, as was the widely used AIDA model and the previous versions of...conventional and chemical attacks on sortie generation. In the first version of TSARINA [1 2], several key additions were made to the AIDA model so that (1...various on-base resources, in addition to the estimates of hits and facility damage that are generated by the original AIDA model . The second version

A framework for expanding aqueous chemistry in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.1

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes the development and implementation of an extendable aqueous-phase chemistry option (AQCHEM − KMT(I)) for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, version 5.1. Here, the Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP), version 2.2.3, is used t...

Sub-daily Statistical Downscaling of Meteorological Variables Using Neural Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Jitendra; Brooks, Bjørn-Gustaf J.; Thornton, Peter E

2012-01-01

A new open source neural network temporal downscaling model is described and tested using CRU-NCEP reanal ysis and CCSM3 climate model output. We downscaled multiple meteorological variables in tandem from monthly to sub-daily time steps while also retaining consistent correlations between variables. We found that our feed forward, error backpropagation approach produced synthetic 6 hourly meteorology with biases no greater than 0.6% across all variables and variance that was accurate within 1% for all variables except atmospheric pressure, wind speed, and precipitation. Correlations between downscaled output and the expected (original) monthly means exceeded 0.99 for all variables, which indicates thatmore » this approach would work well for generating atmospheric forcing data consistent with mass and energy conserved GCM output. Our neural network approach performed well for variables that had correlations to other variables of about 0.3 and better and its skill was increased by downscaling multiple correlated variables together. Poor replication of precipitation intensity however required further post-processing in order to obtain the expected probability distribution. The concurrence of precipitation events with expected changes in sub ordinate variables (e.g., less incident shortwave radiation during precipitation events) were nearly as consistent in the downscaled data as in the training data with probabilities that differed by no more than 6%. Our downscaling approach requires training data at the target time step and relies on a weak assumption that climate variability in the extrapolated data is similar to variability in the training data.« less

Projected effects of vegetation feedbacks on drought characteristics with SPEI over West Africa using the RegCM-CLM-CN-DV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaehyeong, L.; Kim, Y.; Erfanian, A.; Wang, G.; Um, M. J.

2017-12-01

This study utilizes the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to investigate the projected effect of vegetation feedbacks on drought in West Africa using the Regional Climate Model coupled to the NCAR Community Land Model with both the Carbon and Nitrogen module (CN) and Dynamic Vegetation module (DV) activated (RegCM-CLM-CN-DV). The role of vegetation feedbacks is examined based on simulations with and without dynamic vegetation. The four different future climate scenarios from CCSM, GFDL, MIROC and MPI are used as the boundary conditions of RegCM for two historical and future periods, i.e., for 1981 to 2000 and for 2081 to 2100, respectively. Using SPEI, the duration, frequency, severity and spatial extents are quantified over West Africa and analyzed for two regions of the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea. In this study, we find that the estimated annual SPEIs clearly indicate that the projected future droughts over the Sahel are enhanced and prolonged when DV is activated. The opposite is shown over the Gulf of Guinea in general. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800), by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180 and by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

On the recent warming in the subcloud layer entropy and vertically integrated moist static energy over South Asian Monsoon region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konduru, R.; Gupta, A.; Matsumoto, J.; Takahashi, H. G.

2017-12-01

In order to explain monsoon circulation, surface temperature gradients described as most traditional concept. However, it cannot explain certain important aspects of monsoon circulation. Later, convective quasi-equilibrium framework and vertically integrated atmospheric energy budget has become recognized theories to explain the monsoon circulation. In this article, same theories were analyzed and observed for the duration 1979-2010 over south Asian summer monsoon region. With the help of NCEP-R2, NOAA 20th Century, and Era-Interim reanalysis an important feature was noticed pertained to subcloud layer entropy and vertical moist static energy. In the last 32 years, subcloud layer entropy and vertically integrated moist static energy has shown significant seasonal warming all over the region with peak over the poleward flank of the cross-equatorial cell. The important reason related to the warming was found to be increase in surface enthalpy fluxes. Instead, other dynamical contributions pertained to the warming was also observed. Increase in positive anomalies of vertical advection of moist static energy over northern Bay of Bengal, Central India, Peninsular India, Eastern Arabian Sea, and Equatorial Indian Ocean was found to be an important dynamic factor contributing for warming of vertically integrated moist static energy. Along with it vertical moist stability has also supported the argument. Similar interpretations were perceived in the AMIP simulation of CCSM4 model. Further modeling experiments on this warming will be helpful to know the exact mechanism behind it.

Sr/Ca and δ18O records of a coral from Sanya: reconstructions of temperature and precipitation in the northern South China Sea in the late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, S.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Zorita, E.; Fleitmann, D.; Preiser-Kapeller, J.; Toreti, A., , Dr; Sargent, A. M.; Bozkurt, D.; White, S.; Haldon, J. F.; Akçer-Ön, S.; Izdebski, A.

2016-12-01

Past civilisations were influenced by complex external and internal forces, including changes in the environment, climate, politics and economy. A geographical hotspot of the interplay between those agents is the Mediterranean, a cradle of cultural and scientific development. We analyse a novel compilation of high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Mediterranean and compare them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for three historical time intervals - the Crusaders, 1095-1290 CE; the Mamluk regime in Transjordan, 1260-1516 CE; and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion, 1580-1610 CE - when environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. ESMs provide important information on the dynamical mechanisms and underlying processes that led to anomalous hydroclimatic conditions of the past. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the three periods cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. The integrated analysis of palaeoclimate proxies, climate reconstructions and model simulations sheds light on our understanding of past climate change and its societal impact. Finally, our research emphasises the need to further study the societal dimension of environmental and climate change in the past, in order to properly understand the role that climate has played in human history.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T.; Campbell, John L.; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M. K.; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J.; Shanley, James B.

2017-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO2effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change.

Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Bryant, B. P.; Preisler, H.

2008-12-01

We present preliminary results of the 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment for wildfire in California, part of the second biennial science report to the California Climate Action Team organized via the California Climate Change Center by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program pursuant to Executive Order S-03-05 of Governor Schwarzenegger. In order to support decision making by the State pertaining to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, we model wildfire occurrence monthly from 1950 to 2100 under a range of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use six climate change models (GFDL CM2.1, NCAR PCM1, CNRM CM3, MPI ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 med, NCAR CCSM3) under two emissions scenarios--A2 (C02 850ppm max atmospheric concentration) and B1(CO2 550ppm max concentration). Climate model output has been downscaled to a 1/8 degree (~12 km) grid using two alternative methods: a Bias Correction and Spatial Donwscaling (BCSD) and a Constructed Analogues (CA) downscaling. Hydrologic variables have been simulated from temperature, precipitation, wind and radiation forcing data using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model. We model wildfire as a function of temperature, moisture deficit, and land surface characteristics using nonlinear logistic regression techniques. Previous work on wildfire climatology and seasonal forecasting has demonstrated that these variables account for much of the inter-annual and seasonal variation in wildfire. The results of this study are monthly gridded probabilities of wildfire occurrence by fire size class, and estimates of the number of structures potentially affected by fires. In this presentation we will explore the range of modeled outcomes for wildfire in California, considering the effects of emissions scenarios, climate model sensitivities, downscaling methods, hydrologic simulations, statistical model specifications for california wildfire, and their intersection with a range of development scenarios for California.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States.

PubMed

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J; Shanley, James B

2017-02-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO 2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO 2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Parallel computation for biological sequence comparison: comparing a portable model to the native model for the Intel Hypercube.

PubMed Central

Nadkarni, P. M.; Miller, P. L.

1991-01-01

A parallel program for inter-database sequence comparison was developed on the Intel Hypercube using two models of parallel programming. One version was built using machine-specific Hypercube parallel programming commands. The other version was built using Linda, a machine-independent parallel programming language. The two versions of the program provide a case study comparing these two approaches to parallelization in an important biological application area. Benchmark tests with both programs gave comparable results with a small number of processors. As the number of processors was increased, the Linda version was somewhat less efficient. The Linda version was also run without change on Network Linda, a virtual parallel machine running on a network of desktop workstations. PMID:1807632

Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

DOE PAGES

Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; ...

2015-02-24

We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.« less

Accounting for observation uncertainties in an evaluation metric of low latitude turbulent air-sea fluxes: application to the comparison of a suite of IPSL model versions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Servonnat, Jérôme; Găinuşă-Bogdan, Alina; Braconnot, Pascale

2017-09-01

Turbulent momentum and heat (sensible heat and latent heat) fluxes at the air-sea interface are key components of the whole energetic of the Earth's climate. The evaluation of these fluxes in the climate models is still difficult because of the large uncertainties associated with the reference products. In this paper we present an objective metric accounting for reference uncertainties to evaluate the annual cycle of the low latitude turbulent fluxes of a suite of IPSL climate models. This metric consists in a Hotelling T 2 test between the simulated and observed field in a reduce space characterized by the dominant modes of variability that are common to both the model and the reference, taking into account the observational uncertainty. The test is thus more severe when uncertainties are small as it is the case for sea surface temperature (SST). The results of the test show that for almost all variables and all model versions the model-reference differences are not zero. It is not possible to distinguish between model versions for sensible heat and meridional wind stress, certainly due to the large observational uncertainties. All model versions share similar biases for the different variables. There is no improvement between the reference versions of the IPSL model used for CMIP3 and CMIP5. The test also reveals that the higher horizontal resolution fails to improve the representation of the turbulent surface fluxes compared to the other versions. The representation of the fluxes is further degraded in a version with improved atmospheric physics with an amplification of some of the biases in the Indian Ocean and in the intertropical convergence zone. The ranking of the model versions for the turbulent fluxes is not correlated with the ranking found for SST. This highlights that despite the fact that SST gradients are important for the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, other factors such as wind speed, and air-sea temperature contrast play an important role in the representation of turbulent fluxes.

Benchmark Dose Software (BMDS) Development and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This report is intended to provide an overview of beta version 1.0 of the implementation of a model of repeated measures data referred to as the Toxicodiffusion model. The implementation described here represents the first steps towards integration of the Toxicodiffusion model into the EPA benchmark dose software (BMDS). This version runs from within BMDS 2.0 using an option screen for making model selection, as is done for other models in the BMDS 2.0 suite. This report is intended to provide an overview of beta version 1.0 of the implementation of a model of repeated measures data referred to as the Toxicodiffusion model.

A framework for expanding aqueous chemistry in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.1

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes the development and implementation of an extendable aqueous-phase chemistry option (AQCHEM − KMT(I)) for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, version 5.1. Here, the Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP), version 2.2.3, is used to generate a Rosen...

Quantifying the Impact of Mountain Pine Beetle Disturbances on Forest Carbon Pools and Fluxes in the Western US using the NCAR Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edburg, S. L.; Hicke, J. A.; Lawrence, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.

2009-12-01

Forest disturbances, such as fire, insects, and land-use change, significantly alter carbon budgets by changing carbon pools and fluxes. The mountain pine beetle (MPB) kills millions of hectares of trees in the western US, similar to the area killed by fire. Mountain pine beetles kill host trees by consuming the inner bark tissue, and require host tree death for reproduction. Despite being a significant disturbance to forested ecosystems, insects such as MPB are typically not represented in biogeochemical models, thus little is known about their impact on the carbon cycle. We investigate the role of past MPB outbreaks on carbon cycling in the western US using the NCAR Community Land Model with Carbon and Nitrogen cycles (CLM-CN). CLM-CN serves as the land model to the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), providing exchanges of energy, momentum, water, carbon, and nitrogen between the land and atmosphere. We run CLM-CN over the western US extending to eastern Colorado with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and a half hour time step. The model is first spun-up with repeated NCEP forcing (1948-1972) until carbon stocks and fluxes reach equilibrium (~ 3000 years), and then run from 1850 to 2004 with NCEP forcing and a dynamic plant functional type (PFT) database. Carbon stocks from this simulation are compared with stocks from the Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) program. We prescribe MPB mortality area, once per year, in CLM-CN using USFS Aerial Detection Surveys (ADS) from the last few decades. We simulate carbon impacts of tree mortality by MPB within a model grid cell by moving carbon from live vegetative pools (leaf, stem, and roots) to dead pools (woody debris, litter, and dead roots). We compare carbon pools and fluxes for two simulations, one without MPB outbreaks and one with MPB outbreaks.

Reconstructing paleoclimate fields using online data assimilation with a linear inverse model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, Walter A.; Hakim, Gregory J.

2017-05-01

We examine the skill of a new approach to climate field reconstructions (CFRs) using an online paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) method. Several recent studies have foregone climate model forecasts during assimilation due to the computational expense of running coupled global climate models (CGCMs) and the relatively low skill of these forecasts on longer timescales. Here we greatly diminish the computational cost by employing an empirical forecast model (linear inverse model, LIM), which has been shown to have skill comparable to CGCMs for forecasting annual-to-decadal surface temperature anomalies. We reconstruct annual-average 2 m air temperature over the instrumental period (1850-2000) using proxy records from the PAGES 2k Consortium Phase 1 database; proxy models for estimating proxy observations are calibrated on GISTEMP surface temperature analyses. We compare results for LIMs calibrated using observational (Berkeley Earth), reanalysis (20th Century Reanalysis), and CMIP5 climate model (CCSM4 and MPI) data relative to a control offline reconstruction method. Generally, we find that the usage of LIM forecasts for online PDA increases reconstruction agreement with the instrumental record for both spatial fields and global mean temperature (GMT). Specifically, the coefficient of efficiency (CE) skill metric for detrended GMT increases by an average of 57 % over the offline benchmark. LIM experiments display a common pattern of skill improvement in the spatial fields over Northern Hemisphere land areas and in the high-latitude North Atlantic-Barents Sea corridor. Experiments for non-CGCM-calibrated LIMs reveal region-specific reductions in spatial skill compared to the offline control, likely due to aspects of the LIM calibration process. Overall, the CGCM-calibrated LIMs have the best performance when considering both spatial fields and GMT. A comparison with the persistence forecast experiment suggests that improvements are associated with the linear dynamical constraints of the forecast and not simply persistence of temperature anomalies.

Version 4.0 of code Java for 3D simulation of the CCA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Linyu; Liao, Jianwei; Zuo, Junsen; Zhang, Kebo; Li, Chao; Xiong, Hailing

2018-07-01

This paper presents a new version Java code for the three-dimensional simulation of Cluster-Cluster Aggregation (CCA) model to replace the previous version. Many redundant traverses of clusters-list in the program were totally avoided, so that the consumed simulation time is significantly reduced. In order to show the aggregation process in a more intuitive way, we have labeled different clusters with varied colors. Besides, a new function is added for outputting the particle's coordinates of aggregates in file to benefit coupling our model with other models.

Self-consistency in the phonon space of the particle-phonon coupling model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tselyaev, V.; Lyutorovich, N.; Speth, J.; Reinhard, P.-G.

2018-04-01

In the paper the nonlinear generalization of the time blocking approximation (TBA) is presented. The TBA is one of the versions of the extended random-phase approximation (RPA) developed within the Green-function method and the particle-phonon coupling model. In the generalized version of the TBA the self-consistency principle is extended onto the phonon space of the model. The numerical examples show that this nonlinear version of the TBA leads to the convergence of results with respect to enlarging the phonon space of the model.

ImSET: Impact of Sector Energy Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roop, Joseph M.; Scott, Michael J.; Schultz, Robert W.

2005-07-19

This version of the Impact of Sector Energy Technologies (ImSET) model represents the ''next generation'' of the previously developed Visual Basic model (ImBUILD 2.0) that was developed in 2003 to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of energy-efficient technology in buildings. More specifically, a special-purpose version of the 1997 benchmark national Input-Output (I-O) model was designed specifically to estimate the national employment and income effects of the deployment of Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) -developed energy-saving technologies. In comparison with the previous versions of the model, this version allows for more complete and automated analysis of the essential featuresmore » of energy efficiency investments in buildings, industry, transportation, and the electric power sectors. This version also incorporates improvements in the treatment of operations and maintenance costs, and improves the treatment of financing of investment options. ImSET is also easier to use than extant macroeconomic simulation models and incorporates information developed by each of the EERE offices as part of the requirements of the Government Performance and Results Act.« less

USERS MANUAL: LANDFILL GAS EMISSIONS MODEL - VERSION 2.0

EPA Science Inventory

The document is a user's guide for a computer model, Version 2.0 of the Landfill Gas Emissions Model (LandGEM), for estimating air pollution emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills. The model can be used to estimate emission rates for methane, carbon dioxide, nonmet...

Modeling sound due to over-snow vehicles in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-10-01

A modified version of the FAAs Integrated Noise Model (INM) Version 6.2 was used to : model the sound of over-snow vehicles (OSVs) (snowmobiles and snowcoaches) in : Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks for ten modeling scenarios provided by...

Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS). Version 2.0: Program user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Scheil, Christine M.; Petrosky, Lyman

1993-01-01

This Program User's Guide discusses the Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine system design features and capabilities modeled in the Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS): Version 2.0 program (referred to as NESS throughout the remainder of this document), as well as its operation. NESS was upgraded to include many new modeling capabilities not available in the original version delivered to NASA LeRC in Dec. 1991, NESS's new features include the following: (1) an improved input format; (2) an advanced solid-core NERVA-type reactor system model (ENABLER 2); (3) a bleed-cycle engine system option; (4) an axial-turbopump design option; (5) an automated pump-out turbopump assembly sizing option; (6) an off-design gas generator engine cycle design option; (7) updated hydrogen properties; (8) an improved output format; and (9) personal computer operation capability. Sample design cases are presented in the user's guide that demonstrate many of the new features associated with this upgraded version of NESS, as well as design modeling features associated with the original version of NESS.

A NEW COMBINED LOCAL AND NON-LOCAL PBL MODEL FOR METEOROLOGY AND AIR QUALITY MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

A new version of the Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM) has been developed to describe sub-grid vertical turbulent transport in both meteorology models and air quality models. The new version (ACM2) combines the non-local convective mixing of the original ACM with local eddy diff...

A SELF-CONSISTENT DEUTSCHIAN ESP MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

The report presents a new version of the EPA I Southern Research Institute electrostatic precipitator (ESP) model. The primary difference between this and the standard (Revision 3) versions is in the treatment of the particulate space charge. Both models apply the Deutsch equatio...

SARAH 4: A tool for (not only SUSY) model builders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staub, Florian

2014-06-01

We present the new version of the Mathematica package SARAH which provides the same features for a non-supersymmetric model as previous versions for supersymmetric models. This includes an easy and straightforward definition of the model, the calculation of all vertices, mass matrices, tadpole equations, and self-energies. Also the two-loop renormalization group equations for a general gauge theory are now included and have been validated with the independent Python code PyR@TE. Model files for FeynArts, CalcHep/CompHep, WHIZARD and in the UFO format can be written, and source code for SPheno for the calculation of the mass spectrum, a set of precision observables, and the decay widths and branching ratios of all states can be generated. Furthermore, the new version includes routines to output model files for Vevacious for both, supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric, models. Global symmetries are also supported with this version and by linking Susyno the handling of Lie groups has been improved and extended.

Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.1

EPA Science Inventory

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was ...

Evaluation of snow modeling with Noah and Noah-MP land surface models in NCEP GFS/CFS system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, J.; Ek, M. B.; Wei, H.; Meng, J.

2017-12-01

Land surface serves as lower boundary forcing in global forecast system (GFS) and climate forecast system (CFS), simulating interactions between land and the atmosphere. Understanding the underlying land model physics is a key to improving weather and seasonal prediction skills. With the upgrades in land model physics (e.g., release of newer versions of a land model), different land initializations, changes in parameterization schemes used in the land model (e.g., land physical parametrization options), and how the land impact is handled (e.g., physics ensemble approach), it always prompts the necessity that climate prediction experiments need to be re-conducted to examine its impact. The current NASA LIS (version 7) integrates NOAA operational land surface and hydrological models (NCEP's Noah, versions from 2.7.1 to 3.6 and the future Noah-MP), high-resolution satellite and observational data, and land DA tools. The newer versions of the Noah LSM used in operational models have a variety of enhancements compared to older versions, where the Noah-MP allows for different physics parameterization options and the choice could have large impact on physical processes underlying seasonal predictions. These impacts need to be reexamined before implemented into NCEP operational systems. A set of offline numerical experiments driven by the GFS forecast forcing have been conducted to evaluate the impact of snow modeling with daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN).

[Psychometric properties of the French version of the Effort-Reward Imbalance model].

PubMed

Niedhammer, I; Siegrist, J; Landre, M F; Goldberg, M; Leclerc, A

2000-10-01

Two main models are currently used to evaluate psychosocial factors at work: the Job Strain model developed by Karasek and the Effort-Reward Imbalance model. A French version of the first model has been validated for the dimensions of psychological demands and decision latitude. As regards the second one evaluating three dimensions (extrinsic effort, reward, and intrinsic effort), there are several versions in different languages, but until recently there was no validated French version. The objective of this study was to explore the psychometric properties of the French version of the Effort-Reward Imbalance model in terms of internal consistency, factorial validity, and discriminant validity. The present study was based on the GAZEL cohort and included the 10 174 subjects who were working at the French national electric and gas company (EDF-GDF) and answered the questionnaire in 1998. A French version of Effort-Reward Imbalance was included in this questionnaire. This version was obtained by a standard forward/backward translation procedure. Internal consistency was satisfactory for the three scales of extrinsic effort, reward, and intrinsic effort: Cronbach's Alpha coefficients higher than 0.7 were observed. A one-factor solution was retained for the factor analysis of the scale of extrinsic effort. A three-factor solution was retained for the factor analysis of reward, and these dimensions were interpreted as the factor analysis of intrinsic effort did not support the expected four-dimension structure. The analysis of discriminant validity displayed significant associations between measures of Effort-Reward Imbalance and the variables of sex, age, education level, and occupational grade. This study is the first one supporting satisfactory psychometric properties of the French version of the Effort-Reward Imbalance model. However, the factorial validity of intrinsic effort could be questioned. Furthermore, as most previous studies were based on male samples working in specific occupations, the present one is also one of the first to show strong associations between measures of this model and social class variables in a population of men and women employed in various occupations.

A computationally tractable version of the collective model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, D. J.

2004-05-01

A computationally tractable version of the Bohr-Mottelson collective model is presented which makes it possible to diagonalize realistic collective models and obtain convergent results in relatively small appropriately chosen subspaces of the collective model Hilbert space. Special features of the proposed model are that it makes use of the beta wave functions given analytically by the softened-beta version of the Wilets-Jean model, proposed by Elliott et al., and a simple algorithm for computing SO(5)⊃SO(3) spherical harmonics. The latter has much in common with the methods of Chacon, Moshinsky, and Sharp but is conceptually and computationally simpler. Results are presented for collective models ranging from the spherical vibrator to the Wilets-Jean and axially symmetric rotor-vibrator models.

FHWA Traffic Noise Model user's guide (version 2.5 addendum)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-04-30

In March 1998, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Office of Natural and Human Environment, released the FHWA Traffic Noise Model (TNM), Version 1.0, a state-of-the-art computer model for highway traffic noise prediction and analysis. Since th...

2014 Version 7.0 Technical Support Document (TSD)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The 2014 Version 7 document describes the processing of emission inventories into inputs for the Community Multiscale Air Quality model for use in the 2014 National Air Toxics Assessment initial modeling.

Genetic and ecological insights into glacial refugia of walnut (Juglans regia L.)

PubMed Central

Aradhya, Mallikarjuna; Ibrahimov, Zakir; Toktoraliev, Biimyrza; Maghradze, David; Musayev, Mirza; Bobokashvili, Zviadi; Preece, John E.

2017-01-01

The distribution and survival of trees during the last glacial maximum (LGM) has been of interest to paleoecologists, biogeographers, and geneticists. Ecological niche models that associate species occurrence and abundance with climatic variables are widely used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict species distributions over space and time. The present study deals with the glacial history of walnut to address questions related to past distributions through genetic analysis and ecological modeling of the present, LGM and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. A maximum entropy method was used to project the current walnut distribution model on to the LGM (21–18 kyr BP) and LIG (130–116 kyr BP) climatic conditions. Model tuning identified the walnut data set filtered at 10 km spatial resolution as the best for modeling the current distribution and to hindcast past (LGM and LIG) distributions of walnut. The current distribution model predicted southern Caucasus, parts of West and Central Asia extending into South Asia encompassing northern Afghanistan, Pakistan, northwestern Himalayan region, and southwestern Tibet, as the favorable climatic niche matching the modern distribution of walnut. The hindcast of distributions suggested the occurrence of walnut during LGM was somewhat limited to southern latitudes from southern Caucasus, Central and South Asian regions extending into southwestern Tibet, northeastern India, Himalayan region of Sikkim and Bhutan, and southeastern China. Both CCSM and MIROC projections overlapped, except that MIROC projected a significant presence of walnut in the Balkan Peninsula during the LGM. In contrast, genetic analysis of the current walnut distribution suggested a much narrower area in northern Pakistan and the surrounding areas of Afghanistan, northwestern India, and southern Tajikistan as a plausible hotspot of diversity where walnut may have survived glaciations. Overall, the findings suggest that walnut perhaps survived the last glaciations in several refugia across a wide geographic area between 30° and 45° North latitude. However, humans probably played a significant role in the recent history and modern distribution of walnut. PMID:29023476

Genetic and ecological insights into glacial refugia of walnut (Juglans regia L.).

PubMed

Aradhya, Mallikarjuna; Velasco, Dianne; Ibrahimov, Zakir; Toktoraliev, Biimyrza; Maghradze, David; Musayev, Mirza; Bobokashvili, Zviadi; Preece, John E

2017-01-01

The distribution and survival of trees during the last glacial maximum (LGM) has been of interest to paleoecologists, biogeographers, and geneticists. Ecological niche models that associate species occurrence and abundance with climatic variables are widely used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict species distributions over space and time. The present study deals with the glacial history of walnut to address questions related to past distributions through genetic analysis and ecological modeling of the present, LGM and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. A maximum entropy method was used to project the current walnut distribution model on to the LGM (21-18 kyr BP) and LIG (130-116 kyr BP) climatic conditions. Model tuning identified the walnut data set filtered at 10 km spatial resolution as the best for modeling the current distribution and to hindcast past (LGM and LIG) distributions of walnut. The current distribution model predicted southern Caucasus, parts of West and Central Asia extending into South Asia encompassing northern Afghanistan, Pakistan, northwestern Himalayan region, and southwestern Tibet, as the favorable climatic niche matching the modern distribution of walnut. The hindcast of distributions suggested the occurrence of walnut during LGM was somewhat limited to southern latitudes from southern Caucasus, Central and South Asian regions extending into southwestern Tibet, northeastern India, Himalayan region of Sikkim and Bhutan, and southeastern China. Both CCSM and MIROC projections overlapped, except that MIROC projected a significant presence of walnut in the Balkan Peninsula during the LGM. In contrast, genetic analysis of the current walnut distribution suggested a much narrower area in northern Pakistan and the surrounding areas of Afghanistan, northwestern India, and southern Tajikistan as a plausible hotspot of diversity where walnut may have survived glaciations. Overall, the findings suggest that walnut perhaps survived the last glaciations in several refugia across a wide geographic area between 30° and 45° North latitude. However, humans probably played a significant role in the recent history and modern distribution of walnut.

Brugga basin's TACD Model Adaptation to current GIS PCRaster 4.1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez Rozo, Nicolas Antonio; Corzo Perez, Gerald Augusto; Santos Granados, Germán Ricardo

2017-04-01

The process-oriented catchment model TACD (Tracer-Aided Catchment model - Distributed) was developed in the Brugga Basin (Dark Forest, Germany) with a modular structure in the Geographic Information System PCRaster Version 2, in order to dynamically model the natural processes of a complex Basin, such as rainfall, air temperature, solar radiation, evapotranspiration and flow routing among others. Further research and application on this model has been done, such as adapting other meso-scaled basins and adding erosion processes in the hydrological model. However, TACD model is computationally intensive. This has made it not efficient on large and well discretized river basins. Aswell, the current version is not compatible with latest PCRaster Version 4.1, which offers new capabilities on 64-bit hardware architecture, hydraulic calculation improvements, in maps creation, some error and bug fixes. The current work studied and adapted TACD model into the latest GIS PCRaster Version 4.1. This was done by editing the original scripts, replacing deprecated functionalities without losing correctness of the TACD model. The correctness of the adapted TACD model was verified by using the original study case of the Brugga Basin and comparing the adapted model results with the original model results by Stefan Roser in 2001. Small differences were found due to the fact that some hydraulic and hydrological routines were optimized since version 2 of GIS PCRaster. Therefore, the hydraulic and hydrological processes are well represented. With this new working model, further research and development on current topics like uncertainty analysis, GCM downscaling techniques and spatio-temporal modelling are encouraged.

GREET 1.5 : transportation fuel-cycle model. Vol. 1 : methodology, development, use, and results.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-10-01

This report documents the development and use of the most recent version (Version 1.5) of the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model. The model, developed in a spreadsheet format, estimates the full fuel...

Simulating unstressed crop development and growth using the Unified Plant Growth Model (UPGM)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Since development of the EPIC model in 1989, many versions of the plant growth component have been incorporated into other erosion and crop management models and subsequently modified to meet model objectives (e.g., WEPS, WEPP, SWAT, ALMANAC, GPFARM). This has resulted in different versions of the ...

RELEASE NOTES FOR MODELS-3 VERSION 4.1 PATCH: SMOKE TOOL AND FILE CONVERTER

EPA Science Inventory

This software patch to the Models-3 system corrects minor errors in the Models-3 framework, provides substantial improvements in the ASCII to I/O API format conversion of the File Converter utility, and new functionalities for the SMOKE Tool. Version 4.1 of the Models-3 system...

LANL* V2.0: global modeling and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koller, J.; Zaharia, S.

2011-03-01

We describe in this paper the new version of LANL*. Just like the previous version, this new version V2.0 of LANL* is an artificial neural network (ANN) for calculating the magnetic drift invariant, L*, that is used for modeling radiation belt dynamics and for other space weather applications. We have implemented the following enhancements in the new version: (1) we have removed the limitation to geosynchronous orbit and the model can now be used for any type of orbit. (2) The new version is based on the improved magnetic field model by Tsyganenko and Sitnov (2005) (TS05) instead of the older model by Tsyganenko et al. (2003). We have validated the model and compared our results to L* calculations with the TS05 model based on ephemerides for CRRES, Polar, GPS, a LANL geosynchronous satellite, and a virtual RBSP type orbit. We find that the neural network performs very well for all these orbits with an error typically Δ L* < 0.2 which corresponds to an error of 3% at geosynchronous orbit. This new LANL-V2.0 artificial neural network is orders of magnitudes faster than traditional numerical field line integration techniques with the TS05 model. It has applications to real-time radiation belt forecasting, analysis of data sets involving decades of satellite of observations, and other problems in space weather.

Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Suchul; Im, Eun-Soon; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2018-03-01

In this study, future changes in rainfall due to global climate change are investigated over the western Maritime Continent based on dynamically downscaled climate projections using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) with 12 km horizontal resolution. A total of nine 30-year regional climate projections driven by multi-GCMs projections (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR and ACCESS1.0) under multi-scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions (Historical: 1976-2005, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2071-2100) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. Focusing on dynamically downscaled rainfall fields, the associated systematic biases originating from GCM and MRCM are removed based on observations using Parametric Quantile Mapping method in order to enhance the reliability of future projections. The MRCM simulations with bias correction capture the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall as well as the frequency distribution of daily rainfall. Based on projected rainfall changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the ensemble of MRCM simulations project a significant decrease in rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the inter-monsoon periods while the change in rainfall is not relevant during wet season. The main mechanism behind the simulated decrease in rainfall is rooted in asymmetries of the projected changes in seasonal dynamics of the meridional circulation along different latitudes. The sinking motion, which is marginally positioned in the reference simulation, is enhanced and expanded under global climate change, particularly in RCP8.5 scenario during boreal fall season. The projected enhancement of rainfall seasonality over the western Maritime Continent suggests increased risk of water stress for natural ecosystems as well as man-made water resources reservoirs.

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D; Galbraith, David R; Moghim, Sanaz; Levine, Naomi M; Bras, Rafael L; Coe, Michael T; Costa, Marcos H; Malhi, Yadvinder; Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G; McKnight, Shawna; Wang, Jingfeng; Moorcroft, Paul R

2015-02-20

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO 2 levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO 2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO 2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and climate-driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO 2 impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors - climate change, CO 2 fertilization effects, fire, and land use - to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling of Late-Quaternary Variations in Pollen-Based Compositional Dissimilarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J. W.; Blois, J.; Ferrier, S.; Manion, G.; Fitzpatrick, M.; Veloz, S.; He, F.; Liu, Z.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

2011-12-01

In Quaternary paleoecology and paleoclimatology, compositionally dissimilar fossil assemblages usually indicate dissimilar environments; this relationship underpins assemblage-level techniques for paleoenvironmental reconstruction such as mutual climatic ranges or the modern analog technique. However, there has been relatively little investigation into the form of the relationship between compositional dissimilarity and climatic dissimilarity. Here we apply generalized dissimilarity modeling (GDM; Ferrier et al. 2007) as a tool for modeling the expected non-linear relationships between compositional and climatic dissimilarity. We use the CCSM3.0 transient paleoclimatic simulations from the SynTrace working group (Liu et al. 2009) and a new generation of fossil pollen maps from eastern North America (Blois et al. 2011) to 1) assess the spatial relationships between compositional dissimilarity and climatic dissimilarity and 2) whether these spatial relationships change over time. We used a taxonomic list of 106 genus-level pollen types, six climatic variables (winter precipitation and mean temperature, summer precipitation and temperature, seasonality of precipitation, and seasonality of temperature) that were chosen to minimize collinearity, and a cross-referenced pollen and climate dataset mapped for time slices spaced 1000 years apart. When GDM was trained for one time slice, the correlation between predicted and observed spatial patterns of community dissimilarity for other times ranged between 0.3 and 0.73. The selection of climatic predictor variables changed over time, as did the form of the relationship between compositional turnover and climatic predictors. Summer temperature was the only variable selected for all time periods. These results thus suggest that the relationship between compositional dissimilarity in pollen assemblages (and, by implication, beta diversity in plant communities) and climatic dissimilarity can change over time, for reasons to be further studied.

The Importance of Explicitly Representing Soil Carbon with Depth over the Permafrost Region in Earth System Models: Implications for Atmospheric Carbon Dynamics at Multiple Temporal Scales between 1960 and 2300.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, A. D.

2014-12-01

We conducted an assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage simulated by process-based models between 1960 and 2300. The models participating in this comparison were those that had joined the model integration team of the Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network (see http://www.biology.ufl.edu/permafrostcarbon/). Each of the models in this comparison conducted simulations over the permafrost land region in the Northern Hemisphere driven by CCSM4-simulated climate for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Among the models, the area of permafrost (defined as the area for which active layer thickness was less than 3 m) ranged between 13.2 and 20.0 million km2. Between 1960 and 2300, models indicated the loss of permafrost area between 5.1 to 6.0 million km2 for RCP 4.5 and between 7.1 and 15.2 million km2 for RCP 8.5. Among the models, the density of soil carbon storage in 1960 ranged between 13 and 42 thousand g C m-2; models that explicitly represented carbon with depth had estimates greater than 27 thousand g C m-2. For the RCP 4.5 scenario, changes in soil carbon between 1960 and 2300 ranged between losses of 32 Pg C to gains of 58 Pg C, in which models that explicitly represent soil carbon with depth simulated losses or lower gains of soil carbon in comparison with those that did not. For the RCP 8.5 scenario, changes in soil carbon between 1960 and 2300 ranged between losses of 642 Pg C to gains of 66 Pg C, in which those models that represent soil carbon explicitly with depth all simulated losses, while those that do not all simulated gains. These results indicate that there are substantial differences in responses of carbon dynamics between model that do and do not explicitly represent soil carbon with depth in the permafrost region. We present analyses of the implications of the differences for atmospheric carbon dynamics at multiple temporal scales between 1960 and 2300.

COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY ( CMAQ ) MODEL - QUALITY ASSURANCE AND VERSION CONTROL

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will be given to the EPA Exposure Modeling Workgroup on January 24, 2006. The quality assurance and version control procedures for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model are presented. A brief background of CMAQ is given, then issues related to qual...

MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF ELECTROSTATIC PRECIPITATION FOR THE TEXAS INSTRUMENTS PROGRAMMABLE 59 CALCULATOR

EPA Science Inventory

The report describes a version of EPA's electrostatic precipitator (ESP) model suitable for use on a Texas Instruments Programmable 59 (TI-59) hand-held calculator. This version of the model allows the calculation of ESP collection efficiency, including corrections for non-ideal ...

Three Dimensional Thermal Pollution Models. Volume 2; Rigid-Lid Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. S.; Sengupta, S.

1978-01-01

Three versions of rigid lid programs are presented: one for near field simulation; the second for far field unstratified situations; and the third for stratified basins, far field simulation. The near field simulates thermal plume areas, and the far field version simulates larger receiving aquatic ecosystems. Since these versions have many common subroutines, a unified testing is provided, with main programs for the three possible conditions listed.

Enhancements to the caliop aerosol subtyping and lidar ratio selection algorithms for level II version 4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omar, A.; Tackett, J.; Kim, M.-H.; Vaughan, M.; Kar, J.; Trepte, C.; Winker, D.

2018-04-01

Several enhancements have been implemented for the version 4 aerosol subtyping and lidar ratio selection algorithms of Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). Version 4 eliminates the confusion between smoke and clean marine aerosols seen in version 3 by modifications to the elevated layer flag definitions used to identify smoke aerosols over the ocean. To differentiate between mixtures of dust and smoke, and dust and marine aerosols, a new aerosol type will be added in the version 4 data products. In the marine boundary layer, moderately depolarizing aerosols are no longer modeled as mixtures of dust and smoke (polluted dust) but rather as mixtures of dust and seasalt (dusty marine). Some lidar ratios have been updated in the version 4 algorithms. In particular, the dust lidar ratios have been adjusted to reflect the latest measurements and model studies.

Geometric Modelling of Tree Roots with Different Levels of Detail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero Iñiguez, J. I.

2017-09-01

This paper presents a geometric approach for modelling tree roots with different Levels of Detail, suitable for analysis of the tree anchoring, potentially occupied underground space, interaction with urban elements and damage produced and taken in the built-in environment. Three types of tree roots are considered to cover several species: tap root, heart shaped root and lateral roots. Shrubs and smaller plants are not considered, however, a similar approach can be considered if the information is available for individual species. The geometrical approach considers the difficulties of modelling the actual roots, which are dynamic and almost opaque to direct observation, proposing generalized versions. For each type of root, different geometric models are considered to capture the overall shape of the root, a simplified block model, and a planar or surface projected version. Lower detail versions are considered as compatibility version for 2D systems while higher detail models are suitable for 3D analysis and visualization. The proposed levels of detail are matched with CityGML Levels of Detail, enabling both analysis and aesthetic views for urban modelling.

Solving Navier-Stokes Equations with Advanced Turbulence Models on Three-Dimensional Unstructured Grids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Qun-Zhen; Massey, Steven J.; Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.; Frink, Neal T.

1999-01-01

USM3D is a widely-used unstructured flow solver for simulating inviscid and viscous flows over complex geometries. The current version (version 5.0) of USM3D, however, does not have advanced turbulence models to accurately simulate complicated flows. We have implemented two modified versions of the original Jones and Launder k-epsilon two-equation turbulence model and the Girimaji algebraic Reynolds stress model in USM3D. Tests have been conducted for two flat plate boundary layer cases, a RAE2822 airfoil and an ONERA M6 wing. The results are compared with those of empirical formulae, theoretical results and the existing Spalart-Allmaras one-equation model.

78 FR 32224 - Availability of Version 3.1.2 of the Connect America Fund Phase II Cost Model; Additional...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-29

... Version 3.1.2 of the Connect America Fund Phase II Cost Model; Additional Discussion Topics in Connect America Cost Model Virtual Workshop AGENCY: Federal Communications Commission. ACTION: Proposed rule... America Cost Model (CAM v3.1.2), which allows Commission staff and interested parties to calculate costs...

78 FR 14533 - Official Release of EMFAC2011 Motor Vehicle Emission Factor Model for Use in the State of California

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-06

... testing of interim versions of the model with air districts and Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs... Motor Vehicle Emission Factor Model for Use in the State of California AGENCY: Environmental Protection... of the latest version of the California EMFAC model (short for EMission FACtor) for use in state...

Alternative Factor Models and Heritability of the Short Leyton Obsessional Inventory--Children's Version

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Janette; Smith, Gillian W.; Shevlin, Mark; O'Neill, Francis A.

2010-01-01

An alternative models framework was used to test three confirmatory factor analytic models for the Short Leyton Obsessional Inventory-Children's Version (Short LOI-CV) in a general population sample of 517 young adolescent twins (11-16 years). A one-factor model as implicit in current classification systems of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD),…

EVALUATION OF THE COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY (CMAQ) MODEL VERSION 4.5: UNCERTAINTIES AND SENSITIVITIES IMPACTING MODEL PERFORMANCE: PART I - OZONE

EPA Science Inventory

This study examines ozone (O₃) predictions from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 4.5 and discusses potential factors influencing the model results. Daily maximum 8-hr average O₃ levels are largely underpredicted when observed O_...

A Hemispheric Version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System

EPA Science Inventory

This invited presentation will be given at the 4th Biannual Western Modeling Workshop in the Plenary session on Global model development, evaluation, and new source attribution tools. We describe the development and application of the hemispheric version of the CMAQ to examine th...

Performance Assessment of New Land-Surface and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics in the WRF-ARW

EPA Science Inventory

The Pleim-Xiu land surface model, Pleim surface layer scheme, and Asymmetric Convective Model (version 2) are now options in version 3.0 of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) Advanced Research WRF (ARW) core. These physics parameterizations were developed for the f...

Incremental Testing of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System Version 4.7

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes the scientific and structural updates to the latest release of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 4.7 (v4.7) and points the reader to additional resources for further details. The model updates were evaluated relative to obse...

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM): Release No. 2 - Overview and applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, B.; Johnson, D.; Tyree, L.

1993-01-01

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM), a science and engineering model for empirically parameterizing the temperature, pressure, density, and wind structure of the Martian atmosphere, is described with particular attention to the model's newest version, Mars-GRAM, Release No. 2 and to the improvements incorporated into the Release No. 2 model as compared with the Release No. 1 version. These improvements include (1) an addition of a new capability to simulate local-scale Martian dust storms and the growth and decay of these storms; (2) an addition of the Zurek and Haberle (1988) wave perturbation model, for simulating tidal perturbation effects; and (3) a new modular version of Mars-GRAM, for incorporation as a subroutine into other codes.

Predictive Skill of Meteorological Drought Based on Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts: A Real-Time Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L. C.; Mo, K. C.; Zhang, Q.; Huang, J.

2014-12-01

Drought prediction from monthly to seasonal time scales is of critical importance to disaster mitigation, agricultural planning, and multi-purpose reservoir management. Starting in December 2012, NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been providing operational Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Outlooks using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts, to support CPC's monthly drought outlooks and briefing activities. The current NMME system consists of six model forecasts from U.S. and Canada modeling centers, including the CFSv2, CM2.1, GEOS-5, CCSM3.0, CanCM3, and CanCM4 models. In this study, we conduct an assessment of the predictive skill of meteorological drought using real-time NMME forecasts for the period from May 2012 to May 2014. The ensemble SPI forecasts are the equally weighted mean of the six model forecasts. Two performance measures, the anomaly correlation coefficient and root-mean-square errors against the observations, are used to evaluate forecast skill.Similar to the assessment based on NMME retrospective forecasts, predictive skill of monthly-mean precipitation (P) forecasts is generally low after the second month and errors vary among models. Although P forecast skill is not large, SPI predictive skill is high and the differences among models are small. The skill mainly comes from the P observations appended to the model forecasts. This factor also contributes to the similarity of SPI prediction among the six models. Still, NMME SPI ensemble forecasts have higher skill than those based on individual models or persistence, and the 6-month SPI forecasts are skillful out to four months. The three major drought events occurred during the 2012-2014 period, the 2012 Central Great Plains drought, the 2013 Upper Midwest flash drought, and 2013-2014 California drought, are used as examples to illustrate the system's strength and limitations. For precipitation-driven drought events, such as the 2012 Central Great Plains drought, NMME SPI forecasts perform well in predicting drought severity and spatial patterns. For fast-developing drought events, such as the 2013 Upper Midwest flash drought, the system failed to capture the onset of the drought.

The effects of climate downscaling technique and observational data set on modeled ecological responses.

PubMed

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K

2016-07-01

Assessments of future climate change impacts on ecosystems typically rely on multiple climate model projections, but often utilize only one downscaling approach trained on one set of observations. Here, we explore the extent to which modeled biogeochemical responses to changing climate are affected by the selection of the climate downscaling method and training observations used at the montane landscape of the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. We evaluated three downscaling methods: the delta method (or the change factor method), monthly quantile mapping (Bias Correction-Spatial Disaggregation, or BCSD), and daily quantile regression (Asynchronous Regional Regression Model, or ARRM). Additionally, we trained outputs from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) (CCSM3, HadCM3, PCM, and GFDL-CM2.1) driven by higher (A1fi) and lower (B1) future emissions scenarios on two sets of observations (1/8º resolution grid vs. individual weather station) to generate the high-resolution climate input for the forest biogeochemical model PnET-BGC (eight ensembles of six runs).The choice of downscaling approach and spatial resolution of the observations used to train the downscaling model impacted modeled soil moisture and streamflow, which in turn affected forest growth, net N mineralization, net soil nitrification, and stream chemistry. All three downscaling methods were highly sensitive to the observations used, resulting in projections that were significantly different between station-based and grid-based observations. The choice of downscaling method also slightly affected the results, however not as much as the choice of observations. Using spatially smoothed gridded observations and/or methods that do not resolve sub-monthly shifts in the distribution of temperature and/or precipitation can produce biased results in model applications run at greater temporal and/or spatial resolutions. These results underscore the importance of carefully considering field observations used for training, as well as the downscaling method used to generate climate change projections, for smaller-scale modeling studies. Different sources of variability including selection of AOGCM, emissions scenario, downscaling technique, and data used for training downscaling models, result in a wide range of projected forest ecosystem responses to future climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Advancing Climate Change and Impacts Science Through Climate Informatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenhardt, W.; Pouchard, L. C.; King, A. W.; Branstetter, M. L.; Kao, S.; Wang, D.

2010-12-01

This poster will outline the work to date on developing a climate informatics capability at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The central proposition of this effort is that the application of informatics and information science to the domain of climate change science is an essential means to bridge the realm of high performance computing (HPC) and domain science. The goal is to facilitate knowledge capture and the creation of new scientific insights. For example, a climate informatics capability will help with the understanding and use of model results in domain sciences that were not originally in the scope. From there, HPC can also benefit from feedback as the new approaches may lead to better parameterization in the models. In this poster we will summarize the challenges associated with climate change science that can benefit from the systematic application of informatics and we will highlight our work to date in creating the climate informatics capability to address these types of challenges. We have identified three areas that are particularly challenging in the context of climate change science: 1) integrating model and observational data across different spatial and temporal scales, 2) model linkages, i.e. climate models linked to other models such as hydrologic models, and 3) model diagnostics. Each of these has a methodological component and an informatics component. Our project under way at ORNL seeks to develop new approaches and tools in the context of linking climate change and water issues. We are basing our work on the following four use cases: 1) Evaluation/test of CCSM4 biases in hydrology (precipitation, soil water, runoff, river discharge) over the Rio Grande Basin. User: climate modeler. 2) Investigation of projected changes in hydrology of Rio Grande Basin using the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity Macroscale) Hydrologic Model. User: watershed hydrologist/modeler. 3) Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity of the Rio Grande Basin. User: climate impact scientist, agricultural economist. 4) Renegotiation of the 1944 “Treaty for the Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande”. User: A US State Department analyst or their counterpart in Mexico.

3MRA UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation discusses the Multimedia, Multipathway, Multireceptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) modeling system. The outline of the presentation is: modeling system overview - 3MRA versions; 3MRA version 1.0; national-scale assessment dimensionality; SuperMUSE: windows-based super...

Psychometric Validation of the English and French Versions of the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5).

PubMed

Ashbaugh, Andrea R; Houle-Johnson, Stephanie; Herbert, Christophe; El-Hage, Wissam; Brunet, Alain

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to assess the psychometric properties of a French version of the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5), a self-report measure of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, and to further validate the existing English version of the measure. Undergraduate students (n = 838 English, n = 262 French) completed the PCL-5 as well as other self-report symptom measures of PTSD and depression online. Both the English and French versions PCL-5 total scores demonstrated excellent internal consistency (English: α = .95; French: α = .94), and strong convergent and divergent validity. Strong internal consistency was also observed for each of the four subscales for each version (α's > .79). Test-retest reliability for the French version of the measure was also very good (r = .89). Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the four-factor DSM-5 model was not a good fit of the data. The seven-factor hybrid model best fit the data in each sample, but was only marginally superior to the six-factor anhedonia model. The French version of the PCL-5 demonstrated the same psychometric qualities as both the English version of the same measure and previous versions of the PCL. Thus clinicians serving French-speaking clients now have access to this highly used screening instrument. With regards to the structural validity of the PCL-5 and of the new PTSD diagnostic structure of the DSM-5, additional research is warranted. Replication of our results in clinical samples is much needed.

Psychometric Validation of the English and French Versions of the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5)

PubMed Central

Ashbaugh, Andrea R.; Houle-Johnson, Stephanie; Herbert, Christophe; El-Hage, Wissam; Brunet, Alain

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to assess the psychometric properties of a French version of the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5), a self-report measure of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, and to further validate the existing English version of the measure. Undergraduate students (n = 838 English, n = 262 French) completed the PCL-5 as well as other self-report symptom measures of PTSD and depression online. Both the English and French versions PCL-5 total scores demonstrated excellent internal consistency (English: α = .95; French: α = .94), and strong convergent and divergent validity. Strong internal consistency was also observed for each of the four subscales for each version (α’s > .79). Test-retest reliability for the French version of the measure was also very good (r = .89). Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the four-factor DSM-5 model was not a good fit of the data. The seven-factor hybrid model best fit the data in each sample, but was only marginally superior to the six-factor anhedonia model. The French version of the PCL-5 demonstrated the same psychometric qualities as both the English version of the same measure and previous versions of the PCL. Thus clinicians serving French-speaking clients now have access to this highly used screening instrument. With regards to the structural validity of the PCL-5 and of the new PTSD diagnostic structure of the DSM-5, additional research is warranted. Replication of our results in clinical samples is much needed. PMID:27723815

Improved radial dose function estimation using current version MCNP Monte-Carlo simulation: Model 6711 and ISC3500 125I brachytherapy sources.

PubMed

Duggan, Dennis M

2004-12-01

Improved cross-sections in a new version of the Monte-Carlo N-particle (MCNP) code may eliminate discrepancies between radial dose functions (as defined by American Association of Physicists in Medicine Task Group 43) derived from Monte-Carlo simulations of low-energy photon-emitting brachytherapy sources and those from measurements on the same sources with thermoluminescent dosimeters. This is demonstrated for two 125I brachytherapy seed models, the Implant Sciences Model ISC3500 (I-Plant) and the Amersham Health Model 6711, by simulating their radial dose functions with two versions of MCNP, 4c2 and 5.

Carbon-nitrogen interactions in idealized simulations with JSBACH (version 3.10)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goll, Daniel S.; Winkler, Alexander J.; Raddatz, Thomas; Dong, Ning; Prentice, Ian Colin; Ciais, Philippe; Brovkin, Victor

2017-05-01

Recent advances in the representation of soil carbon decomposition and carbon-nitrogen interactions implemented previously into separate versions of the land surface scheme JSBACH are here combined in a single version, which is set to be used in the upcoming 6th phase of coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6).Here we demonstrate that the new version of JSBACH is able to reproduce the spatial variability in the reactive nitrogen-loss pathways as derived from a compilation of δ15N data (R = 0. 76, root mean square error (RMSE) = 0. 2, Taylor score = 0. 83). The inclusion of carbon-nitrogen interactions leads to a moderate reduction (-10 %) of the carbon-concentration feedback (βL) and has a negligible effect on the sensitivity of the land carbon cycle to warming (γL) compared to the same version of the model without carbon-nitrogen interactions in idealized simulations (1 % increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide per year). In line with evidence from elevated carbon dioxide manipulation experiments, pronounced nitrogen scarcity is alleviated by (1) the accumulation of nitrogen due to enhanced nitrogen inputs by biological nitrogen fixation and reduced losses by leaching and volatilization. Warming stimulated turnover of organic nitrogen further counteracts scarcity.The strengths of the land carbon feedbacks of the recent version of JSBACH, with βL = 0. 61 Pg ppm-1 and γL = -27. 5 Pg °C-1, are 34 and 53 % less than the averages of CMIP5 models, although the CMIP5 version of JSBACH simulated βL and γL, which are 59 and 42 % higher than multi-model average. These changes are primarily due to the new decomposition model, indicating the importance of soil organic matter decomposition for land carbon feedbacks.

Calibrating and Updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2014 with BPMPD)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

2014-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) is an economic model of global production, consumption, and trade of forest products. An earlier version of the model is described in Buongiorno et al. (2003). The GFPM 2014 has data and parameters to simulate changes of the forest sector from 2010 to 2030. Buongiorno and Zhu (2014) describe how to use the model for simulation....

Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2016 with BPMPD)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai  Zhu

2016-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) is an economic model of global production, consumption, and trade of forest products. An earlier version of the model is described in Buongiorno et al. (2003). The GFPM 2016 has data and parameters to simulate changes of the forest sector from 2013 to 2030. Buongiorno and Zhu (2015) describe how to use the model for...

Building an Evaluation Framework for the VIC Model in the NLDAS Testbed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Y.; Mocko, D. M.; Wang, S.; Pan, M.; Kumar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Wei, H.; Ek, M. B.

2017-12-01

Since the second phase of North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) was operationally implemented at NCEP in August 2014, developing the third phase of NLDAS system (NLDAS-3) has been a key task for the NCEP and NASA NLDAS team. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is one major component of the NLDAS system. The current operational NLDAS-2 uses version 4.0.3 (VIC403), research NLDAS-2 uses version 4.0.5 (VIC405), and LIS-based (Land Information System) NLDAS uses version 4.1.2 (VIC412). The purpose of this study is to compressively evaluate three versions and document changes in model behavior towards VIC412 for NLDAS-3. To do that, we develop a relatively comprehensive framework including multiple variables and metrics to assess the performance of different versions. This framework is being incorporated into the NASA Land Verification Toolkit (LVT) for evaluation of other LSMs for NLDAS-3 development. The evaluation results show that there are large and significant improvements for VIC412 in southeastern United States when compared with VIC403 and VIC405. In the other regions, there are very limited improvements or even some degree of deteriorations. Potential reasons are due to: (1) few USGS streamflow observations for soil and hydrologic parameter calibration, (2) the lack of re-calibration of VIC412 in the NLDAS domain, and (3) changes in model physics from VIC403 to VIC412. Overall, the model version upgrade largely/significantly enhances model performance and skill score for all United States except for the Great Plains, suggesting a right direction for VIC model development. Some further efforts are needed for science understanding of land surface physical processes in GP and a re-calibration for VIC412 using reasonable reference datasets is suggested.

Industrial Waste Management Evaluation Model Version 3.1

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

IWEM is a screening level ground water model designed to simulate contaminant fate and transport. IWEM v3.1 is the latest version of the IWEM software, which includes additional tools to evaluate the beneficial use of industrial materials

Integrated Noise Model (INM) version 6.0 technical manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-01-31

The Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy (FAA, AEE-100) has : developed Version 6.0 of the Integrated Noise Model (INM) with support from the John A. Volpe : National Transportation Systems Center, Acoustics Facility (Vol...

FHWA traffic noise model, version 1.0 : user's guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

This User's Guide is for the Federal Highway Administration's Traffic Noise Model (FHWA TNM), Version 1.0 -- the FHWAs computer program for highway traffic noise prediction and analysis. Two companion reports, a Technical Manual and a data repor...

Integrated noise model (INM) version 7.0 technical manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-31

The Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy (FAA, AEE-100) has developed Version 7.0 of the Integrated Noise Model (INM) with support from the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Acoustics Facility (Volpe C...

FHWA Traffic Noise Model, version 1.0 technical manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-02-01

This Technical Manual is for the Federal Highway Administrations Traffic Noise Model (FHWA TNM), Version 1.0 -- the FHWAs computer program for highway traffic noise prediction and analysis. Two companion reports, a Users Guide and a data r...

Integrated noise model (INM) version 7.0 user's guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-04-01

The Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy, Noise Division (AEE-100) has developed Version 7.0 of the Integrated Noise Model (INM) with support from the ATAC Corporation and the Department of Transportation Volpe National T...

Integrated Noise Model (INM), version 5.1 : technical manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-01

The Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy (FAA, AEE-120) : has developed Version 5.1 of the Integrated Noise Model (INM) with support from the : John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Acoustics Facility (Vol...

Comparing Apples to Apples: Paleoclimate Model-Data comparison via Proxy System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, Sylvia; Emile-Geay, Julien; Evans, Michael; Noone, David

2014-05-01

The wealth of paleodata spanning the last millennium (hereinafter LM) provides an invaluable testbed for CMIP5-class GCMs. However, comparing GCM output to paleodata is non-trivial. High-resolution paleoclimate proxies generally contain a multivariate and non-linear response to regional climate forcing. Disentangling the multivariate environmental influences on proxies like corals, speleothems, and trees can be complex due to spatiotemporal climate variability, non-stationarity, and threshold dependence. Given these and other complications, many paleodata-GCM comparisons take a leap of faith, relating climate fields (e.g. precipitation, temperature) to geochemical signals in proxy data (e.g. δ18O in coral aragonite or ice cores) (e.g. Braconnot et al., 2012). Isotope-enabled GCMs are a step in the right direction, with water isotopes providing a connector point between GCMs and paleodata. However, such studies are still rare, and isotope fields are not archived as part of LM PMIP3 simulations. More importantly, much of the complexity in how proxy systems record and transduce environmental signals remains unaccounted for. In this study we use proxy system models (PSMs, Evans et al., 2013) to bridge this conceptual gap. A PSM mathematically encodes the mechanistic understanding of the physical, geochemical and, sometimes biological influences on each proxy. To translate GCM output to proxy space, we have synthesized a comprehensive, consistently formatted package of published PSMs, including δ18O in corals, tree ring cellulose, speleothems, and ice cores. Each PSM is comprised of three sub-models: sensor, archive, and observation. For the first time, these different components are coupled together for four major proxy types, allowing uncertainties due to both dating and signal interpretation to be treated within a self-consistent framework. The output of this process is an ensemble of many (say N = 1,000) realizations of the proxy network, all equally plausible under assumed dating uncertainties. We demonstrate the utility of the PSM framework with an integrative multi-PSM simulation. An intermediate-complexity AGCM with isotope physics (SPEEDY-IER, (Molteni, 2003, Dee et al., in prep)) is used to simulate the isotope hydrology and atmospheric response to SSTs derived from the LM PMIP3 integration of the CCSM4 model (Landrum et al., 2012). Relevant dynamical and isotope variables are then used to drive PSMs, emulating a realistic multiproxy network (Emile-Geay et al., 2013). We then ask the following question: given our best knowledge of proxy systems, what aspects of GCM behavior may be validated, and with what uncertainties? We approach this question via a three-tiered 'perfect model' study. A random realization of the simulated proxy data (hereafter 'PaleoObs') is used as a benchmark in the following comparisons: (1) AGCM output (without isotopes) vs. PaleoObs; (2) AGCM output (with isotopes) vs. PaleoObs; (3) coupled AGCM-PSM-simulated proxy ensemble vs. PaleoObs. Enhancing model-data comparison using PSMs highlights uncertainties that may arise from ignoring non-linearities in proxy-climate relationships, or the presence of age uncertainties (as is most typically done is paleoclimate model-data intercomparison). Companion experiments leveraging the 3 sub-model compartmentalization of PSMs allows us to quantify the contribution of each sub-system to the observed model-data discrepancies. We discuss potential repercussions for model-data comparison and implications for validating predictive climate models using paleodata. References Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., Zhao, Y., 06 2012. Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data. Nature Clim. Change 2 (6), 417-424. URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1456 Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K. M., Mann, M. E., Wittenberg, A. T., Apr 01 2013. Estimating central equatorial pacific sst variability over the past millennium. part i: Methodology and validation. Journal of Climate 26 (7), 2302-2328. URL http://search.proquest.com/docview/1350277733?accountid=14749 Evans, M., Tolwinski-Ward, S. E., Thompson, D. M., Anchukaitis, K. J., 2013. Applications of proxy system modeling in high resolution paleoclimatology. Quaternary Science Reviews. URL http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012QuInt.279U.134E Landrum, L., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Wahl, E. R., Capotondi, A., Lawrence, P. J., Teng, H., 2012. Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in CCSM4. Journal of Climate (submitted) Molteni, F., 2003. Atmospheric simulations using a GCM with simplified physical parametrizations. I model climatology and variability in multi-decadal experiments. Climate Dynamics, 175-191

User's guide to Version 2 of the Regeneration Establishment Model: Part of the Prognosis Model

Treesearch

Dennis E. Ferguson; Nicholas L. Crookston

1991-01-01

This publication describes how to use version 2 of the Regeneration Establishment Model, a computer-based simulator that is part of the Prognosis Model for Stand Development. Conifer regeneration is predicted following harvest and site preparation for forests in western Montana, central Idaho, and northern Idaho. The influence of western spruce budworm (Choristoneura...

Simulating historical landscape dynamics using the landscape fire succession model LANDSUM version 4.0

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger; Sarah D. Pratt

2006-01-01

The range and variation of historical landscape dynamics could provide a useful reference for designing fuel treatments on today's landscapes. Simulation modeling is a vehicle that can be used to estimate the range of conditions experienced on historical landscapes. A landscape fire succession model called LANDSUMv4 (LANDscape SUccession Model version 4.0) is...

Simulated decadal modes of the NH atmospheric circulation arising from intra-decadal variability, external forcing and slow-decadal climate processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Jiale; Zheng, Xiaogu; Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Liu, Haibo; Grainger, Simon; Ying, Kairan

2017-04-01

A decadal variance decomposition method is applied to the Northern Hemisphere (NH) 500-hPa geopotential height (GPH) and the sea level pressure (SLP) taken from the last millennium (850-1850 AD) experiment with the coupled climate model CCSM4, to estimate the contribution of the intra-decadal variability to the inter-decadal variability. By removing the intra-decadal variability from the total inter-decadal variability, the residual variability is more likely to be associated with slowly varying external forcings and slow-decadal climate processes, and therefore is referred to as slow-decadal variability. The results show that the (multi-)decadal changes of the NH 500-hPa GPH are primarily dominated by slow-decadal variability, whereas the NH SLP field is primarily dominated by the intra-decadal variability. At both pressure levels, the leading intra-decadal modes each have features related to the El Niño-southern oscillation, the intra-decadal variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic oscillation (AO); while the leading slow-decadal modes are associated with external radiative forcing (mostly with volcanic aerosol loadings), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and the slow-decadal variability of AO and PDO. Moreover, the radiative forcing has much weaker effect to the SLP than that to the 500-hPa GPH.

Paper and Slides on Draft Nonroad Emission Inventory Model: Presented at 12th International Emission Inventory Conference, April 2003

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Description of the most current draft of the NONROAD model and how it version differs from prior versions. Nationwide model outputs are presented and compared for HC, CO, NOx, PM, SOx (SO2), and fuel consumption, for diesel and for sparkignition engines.

TESTING U.S. EPA'S ISCST -VERSION 3 MODEL ON DIOXINS: A COMPARISON OF PREDICTED AND OBSERVED AIR AND SOIL CONCENTRATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The central purpose of our study was to examine the performance of the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) nonreactive Gaussian air quality dispersion model, the Industrial Source Complex Short Term Model (ISCST3) Version 98226, in predicting polychlorinated dib...

Version Control in Project-Based Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Milentijevic, Ivan; Ciric, Vladimir; Vojinovic, Oliver

2008-01-01

This paper deals with the development of a generalized model for version control systems application as a support in a range of project-based learning methods. The model is given as UML sequence diagram and described in detail. The proposed model encompasses a wide range of different project-based learning approaches by assigning a supervisory…

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Final Report, Version 2)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's announced the availability of the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2). This update furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing developmen...

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SMOKE EMISSION DATA PROCESSOR AND SMOKE TOOL INPUT DATA PROCESSOR IN MODELS-3

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has implemented Version 1.3 of SMOKE (Sparse Matrix Object Kernel Emission) processor for preparation of area, mobile, point, and biogenic sources emission data within Version 4.1 of the Models-3 air quality modeling framework. The SMOK...

How to use the Stand-Damage Model: Version 2.0. (Computer program)

Treesearch

J.J. Colbert; George Racin

2001-01-01

The Stand-Damage Model simulates the growth of a forest stand, a spatially homogeneous collection of trees growing on a site. The model simulates growth from an initial inventory, user-prescribed management practices, and the effects of gypsy moth defoliation. Here we provide installation and operating instructions for Version 2.0.

Estimating postfire water production in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Donald F. Potts; David L. Peterson; Hans R. Zuuring

1989-01-01

Two hydrologic models were adapted to estimate postfire changer in water yield in Pacific Northwest watersheds. The WRENSS version of the simulation model PROSPER is used for hydrologic regimes dominated by rainfall: it calculates water available for streamflow onthe basis of seasonal precipitation and leaf area index. The WRENSS version of the simulation model WATBAL...

Space Environments and Effects: Trapped Proton Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huston, S. L.; Kauffman, W. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

An improved model of the Earth's trapped proton environment has been developed. This model, designated Trapped Proton Model version 1 (TPM-1), determines the omnidirectional flux of protons with energy between 1 and 100 MeV throughout near-Earth space. The model also incorporates a true solar cycle dependence. The model consists of several data files and computer software to read them. There are three versions of the mo'del: a FORTRAN-Callable library, a stand-alone model, and a Web-based model.

FHWA Traffic Noise Model user's guide (version 2.0 addendum).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-03-01

In March 1998, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Office of Natural : Environment, released the FHWA Traffic Noise Model (FHWA TNM) Version 1.0, a : state-of-the-art computer program for highway traffic noise prediction and : analysis. Since t...

Integrated Noise Model (INM) version 5.0 user's guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-08-01

The Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy (AEE-120) has : developed Version 5.0 of the Integrated Noise Model (INM) with support from the ATAC : Corporation, the U.S. Department of Transportation John A. Volpe National : T...

HNM, heliport noise model : version 2.2 user's guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-02-01

The John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center), in support of : the Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy, has developed : Version 2.2 of the Heliport Noise Model (HNM). The HNM is a computer progr...

Implementation of Advanced Two Equation Turbulence Models in the USM3D Unstructured Flow Solver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Qun-Zhen; Massey, Steven J.; Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.

2000-01-01

USM3D is a widely-used unstructured flow solver for simulating inviscid and viscous flows over complex geometries. The current version (version 5.0) of USM3D, however, does not have advanced turbulence models to accurately simulate complicated flow. We have implemented two modified versions of the original Jones and Launder k-epsilon "two-equation" turbulence model and the Girimaji algebraic Reynolds stress model in USM3D. Tests have been conducted for three flat plate boundary layer cases, a RAE2822 airfoil and an ONERA M6 wing. The results are compared with those from direct numerical simulation, empirical formulae, theoretical results, and the existing Spalart-Allmaras one-equation model.

Approaches in highly parameterized inversion—PEST++ Version 3, a Parameter ESTimation and uncertainty analysis software suite optimized for large environmental models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welter, David E.; White, Jeremy T.; Hunt, Randall J.; Doherty, John E.

2015-09-18

The PEST++ Version 3 software suite can be compiled for Microsoft Windows®4 and Linux®5 operating systems; the source code is available in a Microsoft Visual Studio®6 2013 solution; Linux Makefiles are also provided. PEST++ Version 3 continues to build a foundation for an open-source framework capable of producing robust and efficient parameter estimation tools for large environmental models.

An implicit dispersive transport algorithm for the US Geological Survey MOC3D solute-transport model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kipp, K.L.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Hornberger, G.Z.

1998-01-01

This report documents an extension to the U.S. Geological Survey MOC3D transport model that incorporates an implicit-in-time difference approximation for the dispersive transport equation, including source/sink terms. The original MOC3D transport model (Version 1) uses the method of characteristics to solve the transport equation on the basis of the velocity field. The original MOC3D solution algorithm incorporates particle tracking to represent advective processes and an explicit finite-difference formulation to calculate dispersive fluxes. The new implicit procedure eliminates several stability criteria required for the previous explicit formulation. This allows much larger transport time increments to be used in dispersion-dominated problems. The decoupling of advective and dispersive transport in MOC3D, however, is unchanged. With the implicit extension, the MOC3D model is upgraded to Version 2. A description of the numerical method of the implicit dispersion calculation, the data-input requirements and output options, and the results of simulator testing and evaluation are presented. Version 2 of MOC3D was evaluated for the same set of problems used for verification of Version 1. These test results indicate that the implicit calculation of Version 2 matches the accuracy of Version 1, yet is more efficient than the explicit calculation for transport problems that are characterized by a grid Peclet number less than about 1.0.

Assessing the Tangent Linear Behaviour of Common Tracer Transport Schemes and Their Use in a Linearised Atmospheric General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holdaway, Daniel; Kent, James

2015-01-01

The linearity of a selection of common advection schemes is tested and examined with a view to their use in the tangent linear and adjoint versions of an atmospheric general circulation model. The schemes are tested within a simple offline one-dimensional periodic domain as well as using a simplified and complete configuration of the linearised version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5). All schemes which prevent the development of negative values and preserve the shape of the solution are confirmed to have nonlinear behaviour. The piecewise parabolic method (PPM) with certain flux limiters, including that used by default in GEOS-5, is found to support linear growth near the shocks. This property can cause the rapid development of unrealistically large perturbations within the tangent linear and adjoint models. It is shown that these schemes with flux limiters should not be used within the linearised version of a transport scheme. The results from tests using GEOS-5 show that the current default scheme (a version of PPM) is not suitable for the tangent linear and adjoint model, and that using a linear third-order scheme for the linearised model produces better behaviour. Using the third-order scheme for the linearised model improves the correlations between the linear and non-linear perturbation trajectories for cloud liquid water and cloud liquid ice in GEOS-5.

Proposal of a short-form version of the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale

PubMed Central

dos Santos, Leonardo Pozza; Lindemann, Ivana Loraine; Motta, Janaína Vieira dos Santos; Mintem, Gicele; Bender, Eliana; Gigante, Denise Petrucci

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To propose a short version of the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale. METHODS Two samples were used to test the results obtained in the analyses in two distinct scenarios. One of the studies was composed of 230 low income families from Pelotas, RS, Southern Brazil, and the other was composed of 15,575 women, whose data were obtained from the 2006 National Survey on Demography and Health. Two models were tested, the first containing seven questions, and the second, the five questions that were considered the most relevant ones in the concordance analysis. The models were compared to the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale, and the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy parameters were calculated, as well as the kappa agreement test. RESULTS Comparing the prevalence of food insecurity between the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale and the two models, the differences were around 2 percentage points. In the sensitivity analysis, the short version of seven questions obtained 97.8% and 99.5% in the Pelotas sample and in the National Survey on Demography and Health sample, respectively, while specificity was 100% in both studies. The five-question model showed similar results (sensitivity of 95.7% and 99.5% in the Pelotas sample and in the National Survey on Demography and Health sample, respectively). In the Pelotas sample, the kappa test of the seven-question version totaled 97.0% and that of the five-question version, 95.0%. In the National Survey on Demography and Health sample, the two models presented a 99.0% kappa. CONCLUSIONS We suggest that the model with five questions should be used as the short version of the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale, as its results were similar to the original scale with a lower number of questions. This version needs to be administered to other populations in Brazil in order to allow for the adequate assessment of the validity parameters. PMID:25372169

Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Modeling Using the TIME-GCM

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

respectively. The CCM3 is the NCAR Community Climate Model, Version 3.6, a GCM of the troposphere and stratosphere. All models include self-consistent...middle atmosphere version of the NCAR Community Climate Model, (2) the NCAR TIME-GCM, and (3) the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART... troposphere , but the impacts of such events extend well into the mesosphere. The coupled NCAR thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere- electrodynamics general

Comprehensive Micromechanics-Analysis Code - Version 4.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, S. M.; Bednarcyk, B. A.

2005-01-01

Version 4.0 of the Micromechanics Analysis Code With Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) has been developed as an improved means of computational simulation of advanced composite materials. The previous version of MAC/GMC was described in "Comprehensive Micromechanics-Analysis Code" (LEW-16870), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 24, No. 6 (June 2000), page 38. To recapitulate: MAC/GMC is a computer program that predicts the elastic and inelastic thermomechanical responses of continuous and discontinuous composite materials with arbitrary internal microstructures and reinforcement shapes. The predictive capability of MAC/GMC rests on a model known as the generalized method of cells (GMC) - a continuum-based model of micromechanics that provides closed-form expressions for the macroscopic response of a composite material in terms of the properties, sizes, shapes, and responses of the individual constituents or phases that make up the material. Enhancements in version 4.0 include a capability for modeling thermomechanically and electromagnetically coupled ("smart") materials; a more-accurate (high-fidelity) version of the GMC; a capability to simulate discontinuous plies within a laminate; additional constitutive models of materials; expanded yield-surface-analysis capabilities; and expanded failure-analysis and life-prediction capabilities on both the microscopic and macroscopic scales.

Comparison of the Tangent Linear Properties of Tracer Transport Schemes Applied to Geophysical Problems.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kent, James; Holdaway, Daniel

2015-01-01

A number of geophysical applications require the use of the linearized version of the full model. One such example is in numerical weather prediction, where the tangent linear and adjoint versions of the atmospheric model are required for the 4DVAR inverse problem. The part of the model that represents the resolved scale processes of the atmosphere is known as the dynamical core. Advection, or transport, is performed by the dynamical core. It is a central process in many geophysical applications and is a process that often has a quasi-linear underlying behavior. However, over the decades since the advent of numerical modelling, significant effort has gone into developing many flavors of high-order, shape preserving, nonoscillatory, positive definite advection schemes. These schemes are excellent in terms of transporting the quantities of interest in the dynamical core, but they introduce nonlinearity through the use of nonlinear limiters. The linearity of the transport schemes used in Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5), as well as a number of other schemes, is analyzed using a simple 1D setup. The linearized version of GEOS-5 is then tested using a linear third order scheme in the tangent linear version.

Documentation for the MODFLOW 6 framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hughes, Joseph D.; Langevin, Christian D.; Banta, Edward R.

2017-08-10

MODFLOW is a popular open-source groundwater flow model distributed by the U.S. Geological Survey. Growing interest in surface and groundwater interactions, local refinement with nested and unstructured grids, karst groundwater flow, solute transport, and saltwater intrusion, has led to the development of numerous MODFLOW versions. Often times, there are incompatibilities between these different MODFLOW versions. The report describes a new MODFLOW framework called MODFLOW 6 that is designed to support multiple models and multiple types of models. The framework is written in Fortran using a modular object-oriented design. The primary framework components include the simulation (or main program), Timing Module, Solutions, Models, Exchanges, and Utilities. The first version of the framework focuses on numerical solutions, numerical models, and numerical exchanges. This focus on numerical models allows multiple numerical models to be tightly coupled at the matrix level.

Quantifying Proxy Influence in the Last Millennium Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakim, G. J.; Anderson, D. N.; Emile-Geay, J.; Noone, D.; Tardif, R.

2017-12-01

We examine the influence of proxies in the climate field reconstruction known as the Last Millennium Reanalysis (Hakim et al. 2016; JGR-A). This data assimilation framework uses the CCSM4 Last Millennium simulation as an agnostic prior, proxies from the PAGES 2k Consortium (2017; Sci. Data), and an offline ensemble square-root filter for assimilation. Proxies are forward modeled using an observation model ("proxy system model") that maps from the prior space to the proxy space. We assess proxy impact using the method of Cardinali et al. (2004; QJRMS), where influence is measured in observation space; that is, at the location of observations. Influence is determined by three components: the prior at the location, the proxy at the location, and remote proxies as mediated by the spatial covariance information in the prior. Consequently, on a per-proxy basis, influence is higher for spatially isolated proxies having small error, and influence is lower for spatially dense proxies having large error. Results show that proxy influence depends strongly on the observation model. Assuming the proxies depend linearly on annual mean temperature yields the largest per-proxy influence for coral d18O and coral Sr/Ca records, and smallest influence for tree-ring width. On a global basis (summing over all proxies of a given type), tree-ring width and coral d18O have the largest influence. A seasonal model for the proxies yields very different results. In this case we model the proxies linearly on objectively determined seasonal temperature, except for tree proxies, which are fit to a bivariate model on seasonal temperature and precipitation. In this experiment, on a per-proxy basis, tree-ring density has by far the greatest influence. Total proxy influence is dominated by tree-ring width followed by tree-ring density. Compared to the results for the annual-mean observation model, the experiment where proxies are measured seasonally has more than double the total influence (sum over all proxies); this experiment also has higher verification scores when measured against other 20th century temperature reconstructions. These results underscore the importance of improving proxy system models, since they increase the amount of information available for data-assimilation-based reconstructions.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model Coupled Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, A.; Anderson, J. L.; Moncrieff, M.; Collins, N.; Danabasoglu, G.; Hoar, T.; Karspeck, A. R.; Neale, R. B.; Raeder, K.; Tribbia, J. J.

2014-12-01

We present a quantitative evaluation of the simulated MJO in analyses produced with a coupled data assimilation (CDA) framework developed at the National Center for Atmosphere Research. This system is based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM; previously known as the Community Climate System Model -CCSM) interfaced to a community facility for ensemble data assimilation (Data Assimilation Research Testbed - DART). The system (multi-component CDA) assimilates data into each of the respective ocean/atmosphere/land model components during the assimilation step followed by an exchange of information between the model components during the forecast step. Note that this is an advancement over many existing prototypes of coupled data assimilation systems, which typically assimilate observations only in one of the model components (i.e., single-component CDA). The more realistic treatment of air-sea interactions and improvements to the model mean state in the multi-component CDA recover many aspects of MJO representation, from its space-time structure and propagation (see Figure 1) to the governing relationships between precipitation and sea surface temperature on intra-seasonal scales. Standard qualitative and process-based diagnostics identified by the MJO Task Force (currently under the auspices of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation) have been used to detect the MJO signals across a suite of coupled model experiments involving both multi-component and single-component DA experiments as well as a free run of the coupled CESM model (i.e., CMIP5 style without data assimilation). Short predictability experiments during the boreal winter are used to demonstrate that the decay rates of the MJO convective anomalies are slower in the multi-component CDA system, which allows it to retain the MJO dynamics for a longer period. We anticipate that the knowledge gained through this study will enhance our understanding of the MJO feedback mechanisms across the air-sea interface, especially regarding ocean impacts on the MJO as well as highlight the capability of coupled data assimilation systems for related tropical intraseasonal variability predictions.

Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) version le as coupled to the NCAR community climate model. Technical note. [NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dickinson, R.E.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Kennedy, P.J.

A comprehensive model of land-surface processes has been under development suitable for use with various National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Models (GCMs). Special emphasis has been given to describing properly the role of vegetation in modifying the surface moisture and energy budgets. The result of these efforts has been incorporated into a boundary package, referred to as the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The current frozen version, BATS1e is a piece of software about four thousand lines of code that runs as an offline version or coupled to the Community Climate Model (CCM).

Major modes of short-term climate variability in the newly developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Jian; Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Li, Juan; Wu, Tianjie; Fu, Xiouhua; Wu, Liguang; Min, Jinzhong

2015-05-01

A coupled earth system model (ESM) has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM), version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE). The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1 (NESM1). Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model's major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model's assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring-fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific (CP)-ENSO and eastern Pacific (EP)-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability, biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version (T159) demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon-ENSO lead-lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.

Argonne's Michael Wang talks about the GREET Model for reducing vehicle emi

ScienceCinema

Wang, Michael

2018-05-11

To fully evaluate energy and emission impacts of advanced vehicle technologies and new transportation fuels, the fuel cycle from wells to wheels and the vehicle cycle through material recovery and vehicle disposal need to be considered. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Argonne has developed a full life-cycle model called GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation). It allows researchers and analysts to evaluate various vehicle and fuel combinations on a full fuel-cycle/vehicle-cycle basis. The first version of GREET was released in 1996. Since then, Argonne has continued to update and expand the model. The most recent GREET versions are the GREET 1 2012 version for fuel-cycle analysis and GREET 2.7 version for vehicle-cycle analysis.

FHWA Traffic Noise Model version 1.1 user's guide (Addendum)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-09-30

In March 1998, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Office of Natural Environment, released the FHWA Traffic Noise Model (FHWA TNM) Version 1.0, a state-of-the-art computer program for highway traffic noise prediction and analysis. Since then, t...

HYDROLOGIC EVALUATION OF LANDFILL PERFORMANCE (HELP) MODEL - USER'S GUIDE FOR VERSION 3

EPA Science Inventory

This report documents the solution methods and process descriptions used in the Version 3 of the HELP model. Program documentation including program options, system and operating requirements, file structures, program structure and variable descriptions are provided in a separat...

Study of a unified hardware and software fault-tolerant architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lala, Jaynarayan; Alger, Linda; Friend, Steven; Greeley, Gregory; Sacco, Stephen; Adams, Stuart

1989-01-01

A unified architectural concept, called the Fault Tolerant Processor Attached Processor (FTP-AP), that can tolerate hardware as well as software faults is proposed for applications requiring ultrareliable computation capability. An emulation of the FTP-AP architecture, consisting of a breadboard Motorola 68010-based quadruply redundant Fault Tolerant Processor, four VAX 750s as attached processors, and four versions of a transport aircraft yaw damper control law, is used as a testbed in the AIRLAB to examine a number of critical issues. Solutions of several basic problems associated with N-Version software are proposed and implemented on the testbed. This includes a confidence voter to resolve coincident errors in N-Version software. A reliability model of N-Version software that is based upon the recent understanding of software failure mechanisms is also developed. The basic FTP-AP architectural concept appears suitable for hosting N-Version application software while at the same time tolerating hardware failures. Architectural enhancements for greater efficiency, software reliability modeling, and N-Version issues that merit further research are identified.

IGT-Open: An open-source, computerized version of the Iowa Gambling Task.

PubMed

Dancy, Christopher L; Ritter, Frank E

2017-06-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is commonly used to understand the processes involved in decision-making. Though the task was originally run without a computer, using a computerized version of the task has become typical. These computerized versions of the IGT are useful, because they can make the task more standardized across studies and allow for the task to be used in environments where a physical version of the task may be difficult or impossible to use (e.g., while collecting brain imaging data). Though these computerized versions of the IGT have been useful for experimentation, having multiple software implementations of the task could present reliability issues. We present an open-source software version of the Iowa Gambling Task (called IGT-Open) that allows for millisecond visual presentation accuracy and is freely available to be used and modified. This software has been used to collect data from human subjects and also has been used to run model-based simulations with computational process models developed to run in the ACT-R architecture.

PRMS-IV, the precipitation-runoff modeling system, version 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Regan, R. Steve; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Webb, Richard M.; Payn, Robert A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

2015-01-01

Computer models that simulate the hydrologic cycle at a watershed scale facilitate assessment of variability in climate, biota, geology, and human activities on water availability and flow. This report describes an updated version of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of various combinations of climate and land use on streamflow and general watershed hydrology. Several new model components were developed, and all existing components were updated, to enhance performance and supportability. This report describes the history, application, concepts, organization, and mathematical formulation of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System and its model components. This updated version provides improvements in (1) system flexibility for integrated science, (2) verification of conservation of water during simulation, (3) methods for spatial distribution of climate boundary conditions, and (4) methods for simulation of soil-water flow and storage.

Implementation of a Message Passing Interface into a Cloud-Resolving Model for Massively Parallel Computing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juang, Hann-Ming Henry; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zeng, Xi-Ping; Shie, Chung-Lin; Simpson, Joanne; Lang, Steve

2004-01-01

The capability for massively parallel programming (MPP) using a message passing interface (MPI) has been implemented into a three-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The design for the MPP with MPI uses the concept of maintaining similar code structure between the whole domain as well as the portions after decomposition. Hence the model follows the same integration for single and multiple tasks (CPUs). Also, it provides for minimal changes to the original code, so it is easily modified and/or managed by the model developers and users who have little knowledge of MPP. The entire model domain could be sliced into one- or two-dimensional decomposition with a halo regime, which is overlaid on partial domains. The halo regime requires that no data be fetched across tasks during the computational stage, but it must be updated before the next computational stage through data exchange via MPI. For reproducible purposes, transposing data among tasks is required for spectral transform (Fast Fourier Transform, FFT), which is used in the anelastic version of the model for solving the pressure equation. The performance of the MPI-implemented codes (i.e., the compressible and anelastic versions) was tested on three different computing platforms. The major results are: 1) both versions have speedups of about 99% up to 256 tasks but not for 512 tasks; 2) the anelastic version has better speedup and efficiency because it requires more computations than that of the compressible version; 3) equal or approximately-equal numbers of slices between the x- and y- directions provide the fastest integration due to fewer data exchanges; and 4) one-dimensional slices in the x-direction result in the slowest integration due to the need for more memory relocation for computation.

User's Guide to the Western Root Disease Model, Version 3.0

Treesearch

Susan J. Frankel

1998-01-01

Effects of Armillaria spp., Phellinus weirii, Heterobasidion annosum, or bark beetles on stand dynamics are represented by the Western Root Disease Model,Version 3.0. This model, which operates in conjunction with the Forest Vegetation Simulator, can be used to evaluate the effects of many silvicultural practices. This guide contains instructions for use, detailed...

Field evaluations of a forestry version of DRAINMOD-NII model

Treesearch

S. Tian; M. A. Youssef; R.W. Skaggs; D.M. Amatya; G.M. Chescheir

2010-01-01

This study evaluated the performance of the newly developed forestry version of DRAINMOD-NII model using a long term (21-year) data set collected from an artificially drained loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation in eastern North Carolina, U.S.A. The model simulates the main hydrological and biogeochemical processes in drained forested lands. The...

Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) Model: B (Set Includes, A- User's Guide for Version 3 w/disks, B-Engineering Documentation for Version 3

EPA Science Inventory

The Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) computer program is a quasi-two-dimensional hydrologic model of water movement across, into, through and out of landfills. The model accepts weather, soil and design data. Landfill systems including various combinations o...

Can we model observed soil carbon changes from a dense inventory? A case study over England and Wales using three versions of the ORCHIDEE ecosystem model (AR5, AR5-PRIM and O-CN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guenet, B.; Moyano, F. E.; Vuichard, N.; Kirk, G. J. D.; Bellamy, P. H.; Zaehle, S.; Ciais, P.

2013-12-01

A widespread decrease of the topsoil carbon content was observed over England and Wales during the period 1978-2003 in the National Soil Inventory (NSI), amounting to a carbon loss of 4.44 Tg yr-1 over 141 550 km2. Subsequent modelling studies have shown that changes in temperature and precipitation could only account for a small part of the observed decrease, and therefore that changes in land use and management and resulting changes in heterotrophic respiration or net primary productivity were the main causes. So far, all the models used to reproduce the NSI data have not accounted for plant-soil interactions and have only been soil carbon models with carbon inputs forced by data. Here, we use three different versions of a process-based coupled soil-vegetation model called ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), in order to separate the effect of trends in soil carbon input from soil carbon mineralization induced by climate trends over 1978-2003. The first version of the model (ORCHIDEE-AR5), used for IPCC-AR5 CMIP5 Earth System simulations, is based on three soil carbon pools defined with first-order decomposition kinetics, as in the CENTURY model. The second version (ORCHIDEE-AR5-PRIM) built for this study includes a relationship between litter carbon and decomposition rates, to reproduce a priming effect on decomposition. The last version (O-CN) takes into account N-related processes. Soil carbon decomposition in O-CN is based on CENTURY, but adds N limitations on litter decomposition. We performed regional gridded simulations with these three versions of the ORCHIDEE model over England and Wales. None of the three model versions was able to reproduce the observed NSI soil carbon trend. This suggests either that climate change is not the main driver for observed soil carbon losses or that the ORCHIDEE model even with priming or N effects on decomposition lacks the basic mechanisms to explain soil carbon change in response to climate, which would raise a caution flag about the ability of this type of model to project soil carbon changes in response to future warming. A third possible explanation could be that the NSI measurements made on the topsoil are not representative of the total soil carbon losses integrated over the entire soil depth, and thus cannot be compared with the model output.

Can we model observed soil carbon changes from a dense inventory? A case study over england and wales using three version of orchidee ecosystem model (AR5, AR5-PRIM and O-CN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guenet, B.; Moyano, F. E.; Vuichard, N.; Kirk, G. J. D.; Bellamy, P. H.; Zaehle, S.; Ciais, P.

2013-07-01

A widespread decrease of the top soil carbon content was observed over England and Wales during the period 1978-2003 in the National Soil Inventory (NSI), amounting to a carbon loss of 4.44 Tg yr-1 over 141 550 km2. Subsequent modelling studies have shown that changes in temperature and precipitation could only account for a small part of the observed decrease, and therefore that changes in land use and management and resulting changes in soil respiration or primary production were the main causes. So far, all the models used to reproduce the NSI data did not account for plant-soil interactions and were only soil carbon models with carbon inputs forced by data. Here, we use three different versions of a process-based coupled soil-vegetation model called ORCHIDEE, in order to separate the effect of trends in soil carbon input, and soil carbon mineralisation induced by climate trends over 1978-2003. The first version of the model (ORCHIDEE-AR5) used for IPCC-AR5 CMIP5 Earth System simulations, is based on three soil carbon pools defined with first order decomposition kinetics, as in the CENTURY model. The second version (ORCHIDEE-AR5-PRIM) built for this study includes a relationship between litter carbon and decomposition rates, to reproduce a priming effect on decomposition. The last version (O-CN) takes into account N-related processes. Soil carbon decomposition in O-CN is based on CENTURY, but adds N limitations on litter decomposition. We performed regional gridded simulations with these three versions of the ORCHIDEE model over England and Wales. None of the three model versions was able to reproduce the observed NSI soil carbon trend. This suggests that either climate change is not the main driver for observed soil carbon losses, or that the ORCHIDEE model even with priming or N-effects on decomposition lacks the basic mechanisms to explain soil carbon change in response to climate, which would raise a caution flag about the ability of this type of model to project soil carbon changes in response to future warming. A third possible explanation could be that the NSI measurements made on the topsoil are not representative of the total soil carbon losses integrated over the entire soil depth, and thus cannot be compared with the model output.

Overview and Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency develops the CMAQ model and periodically releases new versions of the model that include bug fixes and various other improvements to the modeling system. In late 2016 or early 2017, CMAQ version 5.2 will be released. This new version of CMAQ will contain important updates from the current CMAQv5.1 modeling system, along with several instrumented versions of the model (e.g. decoupled direct method and sulfur tracking). Some specific model updates include the implementation of a new wind-blown dust treatment in CMAQv5.2, a significant improvement over the treatment in v5.1 which can severely overestimate wind-blown dust under certain conditions. Several other major updates to the modeling system include an update to the calculation of aerosols; implementation of full halogen chemistry (CMAQv5.1 contains a partial implementation of halogen chemistry); the new carbon bond 6 (CB6) chemical mechanism; updates to cloud model in CMAQ; and a new lightning assimilation scheme for the WRF model which significant improves the placement and timing of convective precipitation in the WRF precipitation fields. Numerous other updates to the modeling system will also be available in v5.2.

GWM-VI: groundwater management with parallel processing for multiple MODFLOW versions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Banta, Edward R.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2013-01-01

Groundwater Management–Version Independent (GWM–VI) is a new version of the Groundwater Management Process of MODFLOW. The Groundwater Management Process couples groundwater-flow simulation with a capability to optimize stresses on the simulated aquifer based on an objective function and constraints imposed on stresses and aquifer state. GWM–VI extends prior versions of Groundwater Management in two significant ways—(1) it can be used with any version of MODFLOW that meets certain requirements on input and output, and (2) it is structured to allow parallel processing of the repeated runs of the MODFLOW model that are required to solve the optimization problem. GWM–VI uses the same input structure for files that describe the management problem as that used by prior versions of Groundwater Management. GWM–VI requires only minor changes to the input files used by the MODFLOW model. GWM–VI uses the Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability Application Programming Interface (JUPITER-API) to implement both version independence and parallel processing. GWM–VI communicates with the MODFLOW model by manipulating certain input files and interpreting results from the MODFLOW listing file and binary output files. Nearly all capabilities of prior versions of Groundwater Management are available in GWM–VI. GWM–VI has been tested with MODFLOW-2005, MODFLOW-NWT (a Newton formulation for MODFLOW-2005), MF2005-FMP2 (the Farm Process for MODFLOW-2005), SEAWAT, and CFP (Conduit Flow Process for MODFLOW-2005). This report provides sample problems that demonstrate a range of applications of GWM–VI and the directory structure and input information required to use the parallel-processing capability.

A revised Thai Multi-Dimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support.

PubMed

Wongpakaran, Nahathai; Wongpakaran, Tinakon

2012-11-01

In order to ensure the construct validity of the three-factor model of the Multi-dimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), and based on the assumption that it helps users differentiate between sources of social support, in this study a revised version was created and tested. The aim was to compare the level of model fit of the original version of the MSPSS against the revised version--which contains a minor change from the original. The study was conducted on 486 medical students who completed the original and revised versions of the MSPSS, as well as the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (Rosenberg, 1965) and Beck Depression Inventory II (Beck, Steer, & Brown, 1996). Confirmatory factor analysis was performed to compare the results, showing that the revised version of MSPSS demonstrated a good internal consistency--with a Cronbach's alpha of .92 for the MSPSS questionnaire, and a significant correlation with the other scales, as predicted. The revised version provided better internal consistency, increasing the Cronbach's alpha for the Significant Others sub-scale from 0.86 to 0.92. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed an acceptable model fit: chi2 128.11, df 51, p < .001; TLI 0.94; CFI 0.95; GFI 0.90; PNFI 0.71; AGFI 0.85; RMSEA 0.093 (0.073-0.113) and SRMR 0.042, which is better than the original version. The tendency of the new version was to display a better level of fit with a larger sample size. The limitations of the study are discussed, as well as recommendations for further study.

Modeling the structure of the attitudes and belief scale 2 using CFA and bifactor approaches: Toward the development of an abbreviated version.

PubMed

Hyland, Philip; Shevlin, Mark; Adamson, Gary; Boduszek, Daniel

2014-01-01

The Attitudes and Belief Scale-2 (ABS-2: DiGiuseppe, Leaf, Exner, & Robin, 1988. The development of a measure of rational/irrational thinking. Paper presented at the World Congress of Behavior Therapy, Edinburg, Scotland.) is a 72-item self-report measure of evaluative rational and irrational beliefs widely used in Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy research contexts. However, little psychometric evidence exists regarding the measure's underlying factor structure. Furthermore, given the length of the ABS-2 there is a need for an abbreviated version that can be administered when there are time demands on the researcher, such as in clinical settings. This study sought to examine a series of theoretical models hypothesized to represent the latent structure of the ABS-2 within an alternative models framework using traditional confirmatory factor analysis as well as utilizing a bifactor modeling approach. Furthermore, this study also sought to develop a psychometrically sound abbreviated version of the ABS-2. Three hundred and thirteen (N = 313) active emergency service personnel completed the ABS-2. Results indicated that for each model, the application of bifactor modeling procedures improved model fit statistics, and a novel eight-factor intercorrelated solution was identified as the best fitting model of the ABS-2. However, the observed fit indices failed to satisfy commonly accepted standards. A 24-item abbreviated version was thus constructed and an intercorrelated eight-factor solution yielded satisfactory model fit statistics. Current results support the use of a bifactor modeling approach to determining the factor structure of the ABS-2. Furthermore, results provide empirical support for the psychometric properties of the newly developed abbreviated version.

Characteristics of the ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean component of the MPI-Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungclaus, J. H.; Fischer, N.; Haak, H.; Lohmann, K.; Marotzke, J.; Matei, D.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Notz, D.; von Storch, J. S.

2013-06-01

MPI-ESM is a new version of the global Earth system model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. This paper describes the ocean state and circulation as well as basic aspects of variability in simulations contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The performance of the ocean/sea-ice model MPIOM, coupled to a new version of the atmosphere model ECHAM6 and modules for land surface and ocean biogeochemistry, is assessed for two model versions with different grid resolution in the ocean. The low-resolution configuration has a nominal resolution of 1.5°, whereas the higher resolution version features a quasiuniform, eddy-permitting global resolution of 0.4°. The paper focuses on important oceanic features, such as surface temperature and salinity, water mass distribution, large-scale circulation, and heat and freshwater transports. In general, these integral quantities are simulated well in comparison with observational estimates, and improvements in comparison with the predecessor system are documented; for example, for tropical variability and sea ice representation. Introducing an eddy-permitting grid configuration in the ocean leads to improvements, in particular, in the representation of interior water mass properties in the Atlantic and in the representation of important ocean currents, such as the Agulhas and Equatorial current systems. In general, however, there are more similarities than differences between the two grid configurations, and several shortcomings, known from earlier versions of the coupled model, prevail.

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE VERSION 2.0

EPA Science Inventory

The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), a...

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL VERSION 2.0

EPA Science Inventory

The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), a...

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE - VERSION 3.0

EPA Science Inventory

The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 3.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon mon...

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL VERSION 3.0

EPA Science Inventory

The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 3.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon mon...

Tier I Rice Model - Version 1.0 - Guidance for Estimating Pesticide Concentrations in Rice Paddies

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Describes a Tier I Rice Model (Version 1.0) for estimating surface water exposure from the use of pesticides in rice paddies. The concentration calculated can be used for aquatic ecological risk and drinking water exposure assessments.

DFN Modeling for the Safety Case of the Final Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel in Olkiluoto, Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanhanarkaus, O.

2017-12-01

Olkiluoto Island is a site in SW Finland chosen to host a deep geological repository for high-level nuclear waste generated by nuclear power plants of power companies TVO and Fortum. Posiva, a nuclear waste management organization, submitted a construction license application for the Olkiluoto repository to the Finnish government in 2012. A key component of the license application was an integrated geological, hydrological and biological description of the Olkiluoto site. After the safety case was reviewed in 2015 by the Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority in Finland, Posiva was granted a construction license. Posiva is now preparing an updated safety case for the operating license application to be submitted in 2022, and an update of the discrete fracture network (DFN) model used for site characterization is part of that. The first step describing and modelling the network of fractures in the Olkiluoto bedrock was DFN model version 1 (2009), which presented an initial understanding of the relationships between rock fracturing and geology at the site and identified the important primary controls on fracturing. DFN model version 2 (2012) utilized new subsurface data from additional drillholes, tunnels and excavated underground facilities in ONKALO to better understand spatial variability of the geological controls on geological and hydrogeological fracture properties. DFN version 2 connected fracture geometric and hydraulic properties to distinct tectonic domains and to larger-scale hydraulically conductive fault zones. In the version 2 DFN model, geological and hydrogeological models were developed along separate parallel tracks. The version 3 (2017) DFN model for the Olkiluoto site integrates geological and hydrogeological elements into a single consistent model used for geological, rock mechanical, hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical studies. New elements in the version 3 DFN model include a stochastic description of fractures within Brittle Fault Zones (BFZ), integration of geological and hydrostructural interpretations of BFZ, greater use of 3D geological models to better constrain the spatial variability of fracturing and fractures using hydromechanical principles to account for material behavior and in-situ stresses.

A world ocean model for greenhouse sensitivity studies: resolution intercomparison and the role of diagnostic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, Warren M.; Meehl, Gerald A.; Verplank, Lynda; Bettge, Thomas W.

1994-05-01

We have developed an improved version of a world ocean model with the intention of coupling to an atmospheric model. This article documents the simulation capability of this 1° global ocean model, shows improvements over our earlier 5° version, and compares it to features simulated with a 0.5° model. These experiments use a model spin-up methodology whereby the ocean model can subsequently be coupled to an atmospheric model and used for order 100-year coupled model integrations. With present-day computers, 1° is a reasonable compromise in resolution that allows for century-long coupled experiments. The 1° ocean model is derived from a 0.5°-resolution model developed by A. Semtner (Naval Postgraduate School) and R. Chervin (National Center for Atmospheric Research) for studies of the global eddy-resolving world ocean circulation. The 0.5° bottom topography and continental outlines have been altered to be compatible with the 1° resolution, and the Arctic Ocean has been added. We describe the ocean simulation characteristics of the 1° version and compare the result of weakly constraining (three-year time scale) the three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields to the observations below the thermocline (710 m) with the model forced only at the top of the ocean by observed annual mean wind stress, temperature, and salinity. The 1° simulations indicate that major ocean circulation patterns are greatly improved compared to the 5° version and are qualitatively reproduced in comparison to the 0.5° version. Using the annual mean top forcing alone in a 100-year simulation with the 1° version preserves the general features of the major observed temperature and salinity structure with most climate drift occurring mainly beneath the thermocline in the first 50 75 years. Because the thermohaline circulation in the 1° version is relatively weak with annual mean forcing, we demonstrate the importance of the seasonal cycle by performing two sensitivity experiments. Results show a dramatic intensification of the meridional overturning circulation (order of magnitude) with perpetual winter surface temperature forcing in the North Atlantic and strong intensification (factor of three) with perpetual early winter temperatures in that region. These effects are felt throughout the Atlantic (particularly an intensified and northward-shifted Gulf Stream outflow). In the Pacific, the temperature gradient strengthens in the thermocline, thus helping counter the systematic error of a thermocline that is too diffuse.

Absorption models for low-frequency variability in compact radio sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marscher, A. P.

1979-01-01

The consequences of the most plausible version of the absorption model for low-frequency variability in compact extragalactic radio sources are considered. The general restrictions placed on such a model are determined, and observational tests are suggested that can be used either to support the model or to discriminate among its various versions. It is shown that low-frequency variability in compact radio sources can be successfully explained by a class of models in which the flux is modulated by changes in free-free optical depth within an intervening ionized medium. Two versions of such a model are distinguished, one involving large changes in optical depth and the other, small changes. It is noted that while absorption effects are capable of causing rapid flux and structural variations at centimetric wavelengths, the models predict detailed behavior that is in direct conflict with observational data.

CMIP5 Historical Simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ronald Lindsay; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.; Tausnev, Nick; Bauer, Susanne E.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Kelley, Max; Lo, Ken K.; Ruedy, Reto; Shindell, Drew T.;

All-Ages Lead Model (Aalm) Version 1.05 (External Draft Report)

EPA Science Inventory

The All-Ages Lead Model (AALM) Version 1.05, is an external review draft software and guidance manual. EPA released this software and associated documentation for public review and comment beginning September 27, 2005, until October 27, 2005. The public comments will be accepte...

Argonne's Michael Wang talks about the GREET Model for reducing vehicle emi

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Michael

2012-07-25

To fully evaluate energy and emission impacts of advanced vehicle technologies and new transportation fuels, the fuel cycle from wells to wheels and the vehicle cycle through material recovery and vehicle disposal need to be considered. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Argonne has developed a full life-cycle model called GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation). It allows researchers and analysts to evaluate various vehicle and fuel combinations on a full fuel-cycle/vehicle-cycle basis. The first version of GREET was released in 1996. Since then, Argonne has continuedmore » to update and expand the model. The most recent GREET versions are the GREET 1 2012 version for fuel-cycle analysis and GREET 2.7 version for vehicle-cycle analysis.« less

Markov chains for testing redundant software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Allan L.; Sjogren, Jon A.

1988-01-01

A preliminary design for a validation experiment has been developed that addresses several problems unique to assuring the extremely high quality of multiple-version programs in process-control software. The procedure uses Markov chains to model the error states of the multiple version programs. The programs are observed during simulated process-control testing, and estimates are obtained for the transition probabilities between the states of the Markov chain. The experimental Markov chain model is then expanded into a reliability model that takes into account the inertia of the system being controlled. The reliability of the multiple version software is computed from this reliability model at a given confidence level using confidence intervals obtained for the transition probabilities during the experiment. An example demonstrating the method is provided.

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2) (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) for a 30-day public comment period. The ICLUS version 2 (v2) modeling tool furthered land change mod...

Modeling water yield response to forest cover changes in northern Minnesota

Treesearch

S.C. Bernath; E.S. Verry; K.N. Brooks; P.F. Ffolliott

1982-01-01

A water yield model (TIMWAT) has been developed to predict changes in water yield following changes in forest cover in northern Minnesota. Two versions of the model exist; one predicts changes in water yield as a function of gross precipitation and time after clearcutting. The second version predicts changes in water yield due to changes in above-ground biomass...

Parenting Young Arab Children: Psychometric Properties of an Adapted Arabic Brief Version of the Alabama Parenting Questionnaire.

PubMed

Badahdah, Abdallah; Le, Kien Trung

2016-06-01

Research has shown a connection between negative parenting practices and child conduct problems. One of the most commonly used measures to assess parenting practices is the Alabama parenting questionnaire (APQ). The current study aimed to culturally adapt and assess the psychometric properties of a short version of the APQ for use in Arabic cultures, using a sample of 251 Qatari parents of children ages 4-12. An exploratory factor analysis proposed a five-model solution that corresponds to the original proposed model in the full version of the APQ. The five constructs of the APQ correlated in the expected direction with the Conduct Problem Subscale from the Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire. This study provides support for the utility of the 15-item short version of the APQ in Arabic cultures. More studies are needed to validate the performance of the short version of APQ in clinical settings.

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

PubMed Central

Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas. PMID:26488750

Flow cytometry, microsatellites and niche models reveal the origins and geographical structure of Alnus glutinosa populations in Europe

PubMed Central

Mandák, Bohumil; Vít, Petr; Krak, Karol; Trávníček, Pavel; Havrdová, Alena; Hadincová, Věroslava; Zákravský, Petr; Jarolímová, Vlasta; Bacles, Cecile Fanny Emilie; Douda, Jan

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Polyploidy in plants has been studied extensively. In many groups, two or more cytotypes represent separate biological entities with distinct distributions, histories and ecology. This study examines the distribution and origins of cytotypes of Alnus glutinosa in Europe, North Africa and western Asia. Methods A combined approach was used involving flow cytometry and microsatellite analysis of 12 loci in 2200 plants from 209 populations combined with species distribution modelling using MIROC and CCSM climatic models, in order to analyse (1) ploidy and genetic variation, (2) the origin of tetraploid A. glutinosa, considering A. incana as a putative parent, and (3) past distributions of the species. Key Results The occurrence of tetraploid populations of A. glutinosa in Europe is determined for the first time. The distribution of tetraploids is far from random, forming two geographically well-delimited clusters located in the Iberian Peninsula and the Dinaric Alps. Based on microsatellite analysis, both tetraploid clusters are probably of autopolyploid origin, with no indication that A. incana was involved in their evolutionary history. A projection of the MIROC distribution model into the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) showed that (1) populations occurring in the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa were probably interconnected during the LGM and (2) populations occurring in the Dinaric Alps did not exist throughout the last glacial periods, having retreated southwards into lowland areas of the Balkan Peninsula. Conclusions Newly discovered tetraploid populations are situated in the putative main glacial refugia, and neither of them was likely to have been involved in the colonization of central and northern Europe after glacial withdrawal. This could mean that neither the Iberian Peninsula nor the western part of the Balkan Peninsula served as effective refugial areas for northward post-glacial expansion of A. glutinosa. PMID:26467247

Psychometric evaluation of the Chinese version of the Patient Perceptions of Empowerment Scale (PPES).

PubMed

Yeh, Mei-Yu; Lin, Sieh-Hwa; Tung, Tao-Hsin

2014-01-01

To evaluate the psychometric properties of the Chinese version of the Patient Perceptions of Empowerment Scale (PPES) and to perform a cross-cultural validity assessment. In this cross-sectional survey, 554 inpatients in three general hospitals in northern Taiwan were recruited. Principal component analysis was used to examine the factor structure of the scale. Confirmatory factor analyses were conducted on the measurement model of the Chinese version of the PPES. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the presence of a second-order four-factor model (information, decision, individual, and self-management) of the Chinese version of the PPES when used with a Taiwanese inpatient population. The results indicate that the 11-item, second-order, four-factor Chinese version of the PPES provided best goodness-of-fit for the data in this study. The 11-item four-factor Chinese version of the PPES is a self-completion scale. This study demonstrated that the Chinese version of the PPES is a reliable and valid self-report instrument for the assessment of patient perceptions of empowerment in clinical practice. Further adaptation and evaluation of the scale will hopefully stimulate further studies on PPES in the fields of psychometrics in Taiwan.

Psychometric Evaluation of the Chinese Version of the Patient Perceptions of Empowerment Scale (PPES)

PubMed Central

Lin, Sieh-Hwa

2014-01-01

Objectives. To evaluate the psychometric properties of the Chinese version of the Patient Perceptions of Empowerment Scale (PPES) and to perform a cross-cultural validity assessment. Methods. In this cross-sectional survey, 554 inpatients in three general hospitals in northern Taiwan were recruited. Principal component analysis was used to examine the factor structure of the scale. Confirmatory factor analyses were conducted on the measurement model of the Chinese version of the PPES. Results. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the presence of a second-order four-factor model (information, decision, individual, and self-management) of the Chinese version of the PPES when used with a Taiwanese inpatient population. The results indicate that the 11-item, second-order, four-factor Chinese version of the PPES provided best goodness-of-fit for the data in this study. Conclusion. The 11-item four-factor Chinese version of the PPES is a self-completion scale. This study demonstrated that the Chinese version of the PPES is a reliable and valid self-report instrument for the assessment of patient perceptions of empowerment in clinical practice. Further adaptation and evaluation of the scale will hopefully stimulate further studies on PPES in the fields of psychometrics in Taiwan. PMID:24971354

Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwinger, Jorg; Goris, Nadine; Tjiputra, Jerry F.

Idealised and hindcast simulations performed with the stand-alone ocean carbon-cycle configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-OC) are described and evaluated. We present simulation results of three different model configurations (two different model versions at different grid resolutions) using two different atmospheric forcing data sets. Model version NorESM-OC1 corresponds to the version that is included in the NorESM-ME1 fully coupled model, which participated in CMIP5. The main update between NorESM-OC1 and NorESM-OC1.2 is the addition of two new options for the treatment of sinking particles. We find that using a constant sinking speed, which has been the standard in NorESM'smore » ocean carbon cycle module HAMOCC (HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), does not transport enough particulate organic carbon (POC) into the deep ocean below approximately 2000 m depth. The two newly implemented parameterisations, a particle aggregation scheme with prognostic sinking speed, and a simpler scheme that uses a linear increase in the sinking speed with depth, provide better agreement with observed POC fluxes. Additionally, reduced deep ocean biases of oxygen and remineralised phosphate indicate a better performance of the new parameterisations. For model version 1.2, a re-tuning of the ecosystem parameterisation has been performed, which (i) reduces previously too high primary production at high latitudes, (ii) consequently improves model results for surface nutrients, and (iii) reduces alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon biases at low latitudes. We use hindcast simulations with prescribed observed and constant (pre-industrial) atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to derive the past and contemporary ocean carbon sink. As a result, for the period 1990–1999 we find an average ocean carbon uptake ranging from 2.01 to 2.58 Pg C yr -1 depending on model version, grid resolution, and atmospheric forcing data set.« less

Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1)

DOE PAGES

Schwinger, Jorg; Goris, Nadine; Tjiputra, Jerry F.; ...

2016-08-02

Idealised and hindcast simulations performed with the stand-alone ocean carbon-cycle configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-OC) are described and evaluated. We present simulation results of three different model configurations (two different model versions at different grid resolutions) using two different atmospheric forcing data sets. Model version NorESM-OC1 corresponds to the version that is included in the NorESM-ME1 fully coupled model, which participated in CMIP5. The main update between NorESM-OC1 and NorESM-OC1.2 is the addition of two new options for the treatment of sinking particles. We find that using a constant sinking speed, which has been the standard in NorESM'smore » ocean carbon cycle module HAMOCC (HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), does not transport enough particulate organic carbon (POC) into the deep ocean below approximately 2000 m depth. The two newly implemented parameterisations, a particle aggregation scheme with prognostic sinking speed, and a simpler scheme that uses a linear increase in the sinking speed with depth, provide better agreement with observed POC fluxes. Additionally, reduced deep ocean biases of oxygen and remineralised phosphate indicate a better performance of the new parameterisations. For model version 1.2, a re-tuning of the ecosystem parameterisation has been performed, which (i) reduces previously too high primary production at high latitudes, (ii) consequently improves model results for surface nutrients, and (iii) reduces alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon biases at low latitudes. We use hindcast simulations with prescribed observed and constant (pre-industrial) atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to derive the past and contemporary ocean carbon sink. As a result, for the period 1990–1999 we find an average ocean carbon uptake ranging from 2.01 to 2.58 Pg C yr -1 depending on model version, grid resolution, and atmospheric forcing data set.« less

How does temporal variability in model parameters affect the risk conclusions from MCnest?

EPA Science Inventory

USEPA recently began using the MCnest model for avian risk for adverse reproductive effects due to pesticide exposure. A more advanced version is currently under development and beta testing for use with threatened and endangered birds. For both versions, a species database has...

78 FR 62712 - Rate Adjustment

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-22

....e., in an across-the-board fashion. Id. at 2, 12, 35. The Postal Service states that the Governors... Services Worksheets USPS-R2010-4R/7 Product Cost & Contribution Estimation Model (Public Version) USPS... Product Cost & Contribution Estimation Model (Non- Public Version) USPS-R2010-4R/NP2 Cost Factor...

An Update on Modifications to Water Treatment Plant Model

EPA Science Inventory

Water treatment plant (WTP) model is an EPA tool for informing regulatory options. WTP has a few versions: 1). WTP2.2 can help in regulatory analysis. An updated version (WTP3.0) will allow plant-specific analysis (WTP-ccam) and thus help meet plant-specific treatment objectives...

Using the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2016 with BPMPD)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai   Zhu

2016-01-01

 The GFPM is an economic model of global production, consumption and trade of forest products. The original formulation and several applications are described in Buongiorno et al. (2003). However, subsequent versions, including the GFPM 2016 reflect significant changes and extensions. The GFPM 2016 software uses the...

Documentation and Validation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System, Version 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); daSilva, Arlindo; Dee, Dick; Bloom, Stephen; Bosilovich, Michael; Pawson, Steven; Schubert, Siegfried; Wu, Man-Li; Sienkiewicz, Meta; Stajner, Ivanka

2005-01-01

This document describes the structure and validation of a frozen version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS): GEOS-4.0.3. Significant features of GEOS-4 include: version 3 of the Community Climate Model (CCM3) with the addition of a finite volume dynamical core; version two of the Community Land Model (CLM2); the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS); and an interactive retrieval system (iRET) for assimilating TOVS radiance data. Upon completion of the GEOS-4 validation in December 2003, GEOS-4 became operational on 15 January 2004. Products from GEOS-4 have been used in supporting field campaigns and for reprocessing several years of data for CERES.

The seasonal-cycle climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marx, L.; Randall, D. A.

1981-01-01

The seasonal cycle run which will become the control run for the comparison with runs utilizing codes and parameterizations developed by outside investigators is discussed. The climate model currently exists in two parallel versions: one running on the Amdahl and the other running on the CYBER 203. These two versions are as nearly identical as machine capability and the requirement for high speed performance will allow. Developmental changes are made on the Amdahl/CMS version for ease of testing and rapidity of turnaround. The changes are subsequently incorporated into the CYBER 203 version using vectorization techniques where speed improvement can be realized. The 400 day seasonal cycle run serves as a control run for both medium and long range climate forecasts alsensitivity studies.

Air-Sea Interaction Processes in Low and High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model Simulations for the Southeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porto da Silveira, I.; Zuidema, P.; Kirtman, B. P.

2017-12-01

The rugged topography of the Andes Cordillera along with strong coastal upwelling, strong sea surface temperatures (SST) gradients and extensive but geometrically-thin stratocumulus decks turns the Southeast Pacific (SEP) into a challenge for numerical modeling. In this study, hindcast simulations using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) at two resolutions were analyzed to examine the importance of resolution alone, with the parameterizations otherwise left unchanged. The hindcasts were initialized on January 1 with the real-time oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis (CFSR) from 1982 to 2003, forming a 10-member ensemble. The two resolutions are (0.1o oceanic and 0.5o atmospheric) and (1.125o oceanic and 0.9o atmospheric). The SST error growth in the first six days of integration (fast errors) and those resulted from model drift (saturated errors) are assessed and compared towards evaluating the model processes responsible for the SST error growth. For the high-resolution simulation, SST fast errors are positive (+0.3oC) near the continental borders and negative offshore (-0.1oC). Both are associated with a decrease in cloud cover, a weakening of the prevailing southwesterly winds and a reduction of latent heat flux. The saturated errors possess a similar spatial pattern, but are larger and are more spatially concentrated. This suggests that the processes driving the errors already become established within the first week, in contrast to the low-resolution simulations. These, instead, manifest too-warm SSTs related to too-weak upwelling, driven by too-strong winds and Ekman pumping. Nevertheless, the ocean surface tends to be cooler in the low-resolution simulation than the high-resolution due to a higher cloud cover. Throughout the integration, saturated SST errors become positive and could reach values up to +4oC. These are accompanied by upwelling dumping and a decrease in cloud cover. High and low resolution models presented notable differences in how SST errors variability drove atmospheric changes, especially because the high resolution is sensitive to resurgence regions. This allows the model to resolve cloud heights and establish different radiative feedbacks.

The Nested Regional Climate Model: An Approach Toward Prediction Across Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurrell, J. W.; Holland, G. J.; Large, W. G.

2008-12-01

The reality of global climate change has become accepted and society is rapidly moving to questions of consequences on space and time scales that are relevant to proper planning and development of adaptation strategies. There are a number of urgent challenges for the scientific community related to improved and more detailed predictions of regional climate change on decadal time scales. Two important examples are potential impacts of climate change on North Atlantic hurricane activity and on water resources over the intermountain West. The latter is dominated by complex topography, so that accurate simulations of regional climate variability and change require much finer spatial resolution than is provided with state-of-the-art climate models. Climate models also do not explicitly resolve tropical cyclones, even though these storms have dramatic societal impacts and play an important role in regulating climate. Moreover, the debate over the impact of global warming on tropical cyclones has at times been acrimonious, and the lack of hard evidence has left open opportunities for misinterpretation and justification of pre-existing beliefs. These and similar topics are being assessed at NCAR, in partnership with university colleagues, through the development of a Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). This is an ambitious effort to combine a state of the science mesoscale weather model (WRF), a high resolution regional ocean modeling system (ROMS), and a climate model (CCSM) to better simulate the complex, multi-scale interactions intrinsic to atmospheric and oceanic fluid motions that are limiting our ability to predict likely future changes in regional weather statistics and climate. The NRCM effort is attracting a large base of earth system scientists together with societal groups as diverse as the Western Governor's Association and the offshore oil industry. All of these groups require climate data on scales of a few kilometers (or less), so that the NRCM program is producing unique data sets of climate change scenarios of immense interest. In addition, all simulations are archived in a form that will be readily accessible to other researchers, thus enabling a wider group to investigate these important issues.

Development and validation of the Core Beliefs Questionnaire in a sample of individuals with social anxiety disorder.

PubMed

Wong, Quincy J J; Gregory, Bree; Gaston, Jonathan E; Rapee, Ronald M; Wilson, Judith K; Abbott, Maree J

2017-01-01

Prominent cognitive models of social anxiety have consistently emphasised the importance of beliefs about the self in the aetiology and maintenance of social anxiety. The present study sought to develop and validate a new measure of core beliefs about the self for SAD, the Core Beliefs Questionnaire (CBQ). Three versions of the CBQ were developed: a Trait version (fundamental absolute statements about the self), a Contingent version (statements about the self related to a specific social-evaluative situation), and an Other version (statements about how others view the self in social-evaluative situations generally). The psychometric features of the scales were examined in clinical (n=269) and non-clinical (n=67) samples. Exploratory factor analysis yielded a one factor model for all three versions of the questionnaire. Total scores differentiated individuals with SAD from individuals without a psychiatric condition, and demonstrated excellent internal consistency. The three CBQ versions had positive associations with social anxiety while controlling for depression, although zero-order correlations indicated the Trait version was more strongly related to depression than social anxiety, the Contingent version was similarly related to depression and social anxiety, and the Other version was more strongly related to social anxiety than depression. Scores on all three versions of the CBQ reduced from pre- to post-treatment and this change predicted treatment outcome. This is the first validation study of the CBQ. This study provides initial support for the reliability and validity of the CBQ. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

General Electromagnetic Model for the Analysis of Complex Systems (GEMACS) Computer Code Documentation (Version 3). Volume 3, Part 4.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-09-01

6ENFRAL. ELECTROMAGNETIC MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS **%(GEMA CS) Computer Code Documentation ii( Version 3 ). A the BDM Corporation Dr...ANALYSIS FnlTcnclRpr F COMPLEX SYSTEM (GmCS) February 81 - July 83- I TR CODE DOCUMENTATION (Version 3 ) 6.PROMN N.REPORT NUMBER 5. CONTRACT ORGAT97...the ti and t2 directions on the source patch. 3 . METHOD: The electric field at a segment observation point due to the source patch j is given by 1-- lnA

Effects of renormalizing the chiral SU(2) quark-meson model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zacchi, Andreas; Schaffner-Bielich, Jürgen

2018-04-01

We investigate the restoration of chiral symmetry at finite temperature in the SU(2) quark-meson model, where the mean field approximation is compared to the renormalized version for quarks and mesons. In a combined approach at finite temperature, all the renormalized versions show a crossover transition. The inclusion of different renormalization scales leave the order parameter and the mass spectra nearly untouched but strongly influence the thermodynamics at low temperatures and around the phase transition. We find unphysical results for the renormalized version of mesons and the combined one.

A nested-grid limited-area model for short term weather forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, V. C.; Zack, J. W.; Kaplan, M. L.; Coats, G. D.

1983-01-01

The present investigation is concerned with a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS), incorporating the sigma-coordinate primitive equations. The present version of this model (MASS 3.0) has 14 vertical layers, with the upper boundary at 100 mb. There are 128 x 96 grid points in each layer. The earlier version of this model (MASS 2.0) has been described by Kaplan et al. (1982). The current investigation provides a summary of major revisions to that version and a description of the parameterization schemes which are presently included in the model. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is considered, taking into account aspects of generalized similarity theory and free convection, the surface energy budget, the surface moisture budget, and prognostic equations for the depth h of the PBL. A cloud model is discussed, giving attention to stable precipitation, and cumulus convection.

Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 1: Documentation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) General Circulation Model, version 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Takacs, Lawrence L.; Molod, Andrea; Wang, Tina

1994-01-01

This technical report documents Version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) General Circulation Model (GCM). The GEOS-1 GCM is being used by NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) to produce multiyear data sets for climate research. This report provides a documentation of the model components used in the GEOS-1 GCM, a complete description of model diagnostics available, and a User's Guide to facilitate GEOS-1 GCM experiments.

Evaluation of psychometric properties of the German Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture and its potential for cross-cultural comparisons: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Gambashidze, Nikoloz; Hammer, Antje; Brösterhaus, Mareen; Manser, Tanja

2017-11-09

To study the psychometric characteristics of German version of the Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture and to compare its dimensionality to other language versions in order to understand the instrument's potential for cross-national studies. Cross-sectional multicentre study to establish psychometric properties of German version of the survey instrument. 73 units from 37 departments of two German university hospitals. Clinical personnel (n=995 responses, response rate 39.6%). Psychometric properties (eg, model fit, internal consistency, construct validity) of the instrument and comparison of dimensionality across different language translations. The instrument demonstrated acceptable to good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.64-0.88). Confirmatory factor analysis of the original 12-factor model resulted in marginally satisfactory model fit (root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA)=0.05; standardised root mean residual (SRMR)=0.05; comparative fit index (CFI)=0.90; goodness of fit index (GFI)=0.88; Tucker-Lewis Index (TLI)=0.88). Exploratory factor analysis resulted in an alternative eight-factor model with good model fit (RMSEA=0.05; SRMR=0.05; CFI=0.95; GFI=0.91; TLI=0.94) and good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.73-0.87) and construct validity. Analysis of the dimensionality compared with models from 10 other language versions revealed eight dimensions with relatively stable composition and appearance across different versions and four dimensions requiring further improvement. The German version of Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture demonstrated satisfactory psychometric properties for use in German hospitals. However, our comparison of instrument dimensionality across different language versions indicates limitations concerning cross-national studies. Results of this study can be considered in interpreting findings across national contexts, in further refinement of the instrument for cross-national studies and in better understanding the various facets and dimensions of patient safety culture. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Price Responsiveness in the AEO2003 NEMS Residential and Commercial Buildings Sector Models

EIA Publications

2003-01-01

This paper describes the demand responses to changes in energy prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 versions of the Residential and Commercial Demand Modules of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). It updates a similar paper completed for the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 version of the NEMS.

VELMA Ecohydrological Model, Version 2.0 -- Analyzing Green Infrastructure Options for Enhancing Water Quality and Ecosystem Service Co-Benefits

EPA Science Inventory

This 2-page factsheet describes an enhanced version (2.0) of the VELMA eco-hydrological model. VELMA – Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments – has been redesigned to assist communities, land managers, policy makers and other decision makers in evaluataing the effecti...

Incorporation of detailed eye model into polygon-mesh versions of ICRP-110 reference phantoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tat Nguyen, Thang; Yeom, Yeon Soo; Kim, Han Sung; Wang, Zhao Jun; Han, Min Cheol; Kim, Chan Hyeong; Lee, Jai Ki; Zankl, Maria; Petoussi-Henss, Nina; Bolch, Wesley E.; Lee, Choonsik; Chung, Beom Sun

2015-11-01

The dose coefficients for the eye lens reported in ICRP 2010 Publication 116 were calculated using both a stylized model and the ICRP-110 reference phantoms, according to the type of radiation, energy, and irradiation geometry. To maintain consistency of lens dose assessment, in the present study we incorporated the ICRP-116 detailed eye model into the converted polygon-mesh (PM) version of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms. After the incorporation, the dose coefficients for the eye lens were calculated and compared with those of the ICRP-116 data. The results showed generally a good agreement between the newly calculated lens dose coefficients and the values of ICRP 2010 Publication 116. Significant differences were found for some irradiation cases due mainly to the use of different types of phantoms. Considering that the PM version of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms preserve the original topology of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms, it is believed that the PM version phantoms, along with the detailed eye model, provide more reliable and consistent dose coefficients for the eye lens.

How Synchronous was the Transition into the Younger Dryas across the Euro-Atlantic Region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenk, F.; Muschitiello, F.; Heikkilä, M. P.; Väliranta, M.; Tarasov, L.; Brandefelt, J.; Johansson, A. V.; Naslund, J. O.; Wohlfarth, B.

2015-12-01

Observations of a currently weakening subpolar gyre south of Greenland has again increased scientific attention regarding the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for the regional to global climate. The rapid climate shift of the Younger Dryas (YD, GS-1) cold reversal during the last deglaciation is attributed to an abrupt slowdown or collapse of the AMOC due to a strong meltwater pulse and/or the rapid disintegration of the Laurentide Ice sheet. Although such a dramatic event is not expected for the future, the spatiotemporal climatic response to such a slowdown is an interesting test case. Two recently well dated proxy records around the North Sea region suggest a non-synchronous early cooling/onset of the YD compared to Greenland (NGRIP). Presentation #61803 discusses the hypothesis of a local cooling as a response to increased ice berg calving and/or meltwater from Fenno-Scandinavian Ice Sheet (FIS) during the late Alleröd warm phase (GI-1a). Here we study CCSM3 model output from the quasi-transient atmosphere-ocean simulation (TraCE) where no strong contribution from FIS is considered from the late Alleröd into the YD. We evaluate to which extent the spatiotemporal temperature response to the AMOC slowdown of the simulation is synchronous over the Euro-Atlantic region and how atmospheric teleconnections reorganize during the rapid shift into the YD. In addition, we run time-slice experiments at high spatial resolution of around 100 km with the Community Earth System Model CESM1.0.5 for the late Alleröd and YD to compare spatial climatic differences for both periods taking into account the regional influence from continental ice sheets in more detail.

Validation of the Polish version of the Multidimensional Body-Self Relations Questionnaire among women.

PubMed

Brytek-Matera, Anna; Rogoza, Radosław

2015-03-01

In Poland, appropriate means to assess body image are relatively limited. The aim of the study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Polish version of the Multidimensional Body-Self Relations Questionnaire (MBSRQ). To do so, a sample of 341 females ranging in age from 18 to 35 years (M = 23.09; SD = 3.14) participated in the present study. Owing to the fact that the confirmatory factor analysis of the original nine-factor model was not well fitted to the data (RMSEA = 0.06; CFI = 0.75) the exploratory approach was employed. Based on parallel analysis and minimum average partial an eight-factor structure of the Polish version of the MBSRQ was distinguished. Exploratory factor analysis revealed a factorial structure similar to the original version. The proposed model was tested using an exploratory structural equation modelling approach which resulted in good fit (RMSEA = 0.04; CFI = 0.91). In the present study, the internal reliability assessed by McDonald's ω coefficient amounts from 0.66 to 0.91. In conclusion, the Polish version of the MBSRQ is a useful measure for the attitudinal component of body image assessment.

Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model Plus (DER-CAM+), Version 1.0.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stadler, Michael; Cardorso, Goncalo; Mashayekh, Salman

DER-CAM+ v1.0.0 is internally referred to as DER-CAM v5.0.0. Due to fundamental changes from previous versions, a new name (DER-CAM+) will be used for DER-CAM version 5.0.0 and above. DER-CAM+ is a Decision Support Tool for Decentralized Energy Systems that has been tailored for microgrid applications, and now explicitly considers electrical and thermal networks within a microgrid, ancillary services, and operating reserve. DER-CAM was initially created as an exclusively economic energy model, able to find the cost minimizing combination and operation profile of a set of DER technologies that meet energy loads of a building or microgrid for a typicalmore » test year. The previous versions of DER-CAM were formulated without modeling the electrical/thermal networks within the microgrid, and hence, used aggregate single-node approaches. Furthermore, they were not able to consider operating reserve constraints, and microgrid revenue streams from participating in ancillary services markets. This new version DER-CAM+ considers these issues by including electrical power flow and thermal flow equations and constraints in the microgrid, revenues from various ancillary services markets, and operating reserve constraints.« less

Portuguese version of the PTSD Checklist-Military Version (PCL-M)-I: Confirmatory Factor Analysis and reliability.

PubMed

Carvalho, Teresa; Cunha, Marina; Pinto-Gouveia, José; Duarte, Joana

2015-03-30

The PTSD Checklist-Military Version (PCL-M) is a brief self-report instrument widely used to assess Post-traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) symptomatology in war Veterans, according to DSM-IV. This study sought out to explore the factor structure and reliability of the Portuguese version of the PCL-M. A sample of 660 Portuguese Colonial War Veterans completed the PCL-M. Several Confirmatory Factor Analyses were conducted to test different structures for PCL-M PTSD symptoms. Although the respecified first-order four-factor model based on King et al.'s model showed the best fit to the data, the respecified first and second-order models based on the DSM-IV symptom clusters also presented an acceptable fit. In addition, the PCL-M showed adequate reliability. The Portuguese version of the PCL-M is thus a valid and reliable measure to assess the severity of PTSD symptoms as described in DSM-IV. Its use with Portuguese Colonial War Veterans may ease screening of possible PTSD cases, promote more suitable treatment planning, and enable monitoring of therapeutic outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Parameter Sensitivity, Interaction and Transferability in Hydrologically Enhanced Versions of Noah-LSM over Transition Zones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosero, Enrique; Yang, Zong-Liang; Wagener, Thorsten; Gulden, Lindsey E.; Yatheendradas, Soni; Niu, Guo-Yue

2009-01-01

We use sensitivity analysis to identify the parameters that are most responsible for shaping land surface model (LSM) simulations and to understand the complex interactions in three versions of the Noah LSM: the standard version (STD), a version enhanced with a simple groundwater module (GW), and version augmented by a dynamic phenology module (DV). We use warm season, high-frequency, near-surface states and turbulent fluxes collected over nine sites in the US Southern Great Plains. We quantify changes in the pattern of sensitive parameters, the amount and nature of the interaction between parameters, and the covariance structure of the distribution of behavioral parameter sets. Using Sobol s total and first-order sensitivity indexes, we show that very few parameters directly control the variance of the model output. Significant parameter interaction occurs so that not only the optimal parameter values differ between models, but the relationships between parameters change. GW decreases parameter interaction and appears to improve model realism, especially at wetter sites. DV increases parameter interaction and decreases identifiability, implying it is overparameterized and/or underconstrained. A case study at a wet site shows GW has two functional modes: one that mimics STD and a second in which GW improves model function by decoupling direct evaporation and baseflow. Unsupervised classification of the posterior distributions of behavioral parameter sets cannot group similar sites based solely on soil or vegetation type, helping to explain why transferability between sites and models is not straightforward. This evidence suggests a priori assignment of parameters should also consider climatic differences.

A Revised Version of the Norwegian Adaptation of the Test Anxiety Inventory in a Heterogeneous Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oktedalen, Tuva; Hagtvet, Knut A.

2011-01-01

Confirmatory factor analysis and Multiple Indicators, Multiple Causes (MIMIC) modeling were employed to investigate psychometric properties of a revised adaptation of the Norwegian version of the Test Anxiety Inventory (RTAIN) in a sample of 456 students. The study supported the Norwegian version as a useful inventory for measuring the components…

Integral formulae of the canonical correlation functions for the one dimensional transverse Ising model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, Makoto

2017-12-01

Some new formulae of the canonical correlation functions for the one dimensional quantum transverse Ising model are found by the ST-transformation method using a Morita's sum rule and its extensions for the two dimensional classical Ising model. As a consequence we obtain a time-independent term of the dynamical correlation functions. Differences of quantum version and classical version of these formulae are also discussed.

The GEOS Chemistry Climate Model: Implications of Climate Feedbacks on Ozone Depletion and Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, Richard S.; Pawson, Steven; Douglass, Anne R.; Newman, Paul A.; Kawa, S. Randy; Nielsen, J. Eric; Rodriquez, Jose; Strahan, Susan; Oman, Luke; Waugh, Darryn

2008-01-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) has been developed by combining the atmospheric chemistry and transport modules developed over the years at Goddard and the GEOS general circulation model, also developed at Goddard. The first version of the model was used in the CCMVal intercomparison exercises that contributed to the 2006 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment. The second version incorporates the updated version of the GCM (GEOS 5) and will be used for the next round of CCMVal evaluations and the 2010 Ozone Assessment. The third version, now under development, incorporates the combined stratosphere and troposphere chemistry package developed under the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). We will show comparison to past observations that indicate that we represent the ozone trends over the past 30 years. We will also show the basic temperature, composition, and dynamical structure of the simulations. We will further show projections into the future. We will show results from an ensemble of transient and time-slice simulations, including simulations with fixed 1960 chlorine, simulations with a best guess scenario (Al), and simulations with extremely high chlorine loadings. We will discuss planned extensions of the model to include emission-based boundary conditions for both anthropogenic and biogenic compounds.

Numerical Issues Associated with Compensating and Competing Processes in Climate Models: an Example from ECHAM-HAM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai

2013-06-26

The purpose of this paper is to draw attention to the need for appropriate numerical techniques to represent process interactions in climate models. In two versions of the ECHAM-HAM model, different time integration methods are used to solve the sulfuric acid (H2SO4) gas evolution equation, which lead to substantially different results in the H2SO4 gas concentration and the aerosol nucleation rate. Using convergence tests and sensitivity simulations performed with various time stepping schemes, it is confirmed that numerical errors in the second model version are significantly smaller than those in version one. The use of sequential operator splitting in combinationmore » with long time step is identified as the main reason for the large systematic biases in the old model. The remaining errors in version two in the nucleation rate, related to the competition between condensation and nucleation, have a clear impact on the simulated concentration of cloud condensation nuclei in the lower troposphere. These errors can be significantly reduced by employing an implicit solver that handles production, condensation and nucleation at the same time. Lessons learned in this work underline the need for more caution when treating multi-time-scale problems involving compensating and competing processes, a common occurrence in current climate models.« less

A new vector radiative transfer model as a part of SCIATRAN 3.0 software package.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozanov, Alexei; Rozanov, Vladimir; Burrows, John P.

The SCIATRAN 3.0 package is a result of further development of the SCIATRAN 2.x software family which, similar to previous versions, comprises a radiative transfer model and a retrieval block. A major improvement was achieved in comparison to previous software versions by adding the vector mode to the radiative transfer model. Thus, the well-established Discrete Ordinate solver can now be run in the vector mode to calculate the scattered solar radiation including polarization, i.e., to simulate all four components of the Stockes vector. Similar to the scalar version, the simulations can be performed for any viewing geometry typical for atmospheric observations in the UV-Vis-NIR spectral range (nadir, limb, off-axis, etc.) as well as for any observer position within or outside the Earth's atmosphere. Similar to the precursor version, the new model is freely available for non-commercial use via the web page of the University of Bremen. In this presentation a short description of the software package, especially of the new vector radiative transfer model will be given, including remarks on the availability for the scientific community. Furthermore, comparisons to other vector models will be shown and some example problems will be considered where the polarization of the observed radiation must be accounted for to obtain high quality results.

User guide for MODPATH Version 7—A particle-tracking model for MODFLOW

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, David W.

2016-09-26

MODPATH is a particle-tracking post-processing program designed to work with MODFLOW, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) finite-difference groundwater flow model. MODPATH version 7 is the fourth major release since its original publication. Previous versions were documented in USGS Open-File Reports 89–381 and 94–464 and in USGS Techniques and Methods 6–A41.MODPATH version 7 works with MODFLOW-2005 and MODFLOW–USG. Support for unstructured grids in MODFLOW–USG is limited to smoothed, rectangular-based quadtree and quadpatch grids.A software distribution package containing the computer program and supporting documentation, such as input instructions, output file descriptions, and example problems, is available from the USGS over the Internet (http://water.usgs.gov/ogw/modpath/).

FastDart : a fast, accurate and friendly version of DART code.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rest, J.; Taboada, H.

2000-11-08

A new enhanced, visual version of DART code is presented. DART is a mechanistic model based code, developed for the performance calculation and assessment of aluminum dispersion fuel. Major issues of this new version are the development of a new, time saving calculation routine, able to be run on PC, a friendly visual input interface and a plotting facility. This version, available for silicide and U-Mo fuels,adds to the classical accuracy of DART models for fuel performance prediction, a faster execution and visual interfaces. It is part of a collaboration agreement between ANL and CNEA in the area of Lowmore » Enriched Uranium Advanced Fuels, held by the Implementation Arrangement for Technical Exchange and Cooperation in the Area of Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy.« less

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, Lee; Merry, Carl; Decker, Ryan; Harrington, Brian

2008-01-01

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) is a statistical model summarizing the wind and thermodynamic atmospheric variability from surface to 70 kin. Launches of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle from Kennedy Space Center utilize CCAFS RRA data to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehicle during ascent. An update to the CCAFS RRA was recently completed. As part of the update, a validation study on the 2006 version was conducted as well as a comparison analysis of the 2006 version to the existing CCAFS RRA database version 1983. Assessments to the Space Shuttle vehicle ascent profile characteristics were performed to determine impacts of the updated model to the vehicle performance. Details on the model updates and the vehicle sensitivity analyses with the update model are presented.

Evaluating the Ocean Component of the US Navy Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamudio, L.

2017-12-01

Ocean currents, temperature, and salinity observations are used to evaluate the ocean component of the US Navy Earth System Model. The ocean and atmosphere components of the system are an eddy-resolving (1/12.5° equatorial resolution) version of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and a T359L50 version of the NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), respectively. The system was integrated in hindcast mode and the ocean results are compared against unassimilated observations, a stand-alone version of HYCOM, and the Generalized Digital Environment Model ocean climatology. The different observation types used in the system evaluation are: drifting buoys, temperature profiles, salinity profiles, and acoustical proxies (mixed layer depth, sonic layer depth, below layer gradient, and acoustical trapping). To evaluate the system's performance in each different metric, a scorecard is used to translate the system's errors into scores, which provide an indication of the system's skill in both space and time.

Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating Probability of High-Consequence Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, R.; Constantine, P.; Boslough, M.

2011-12-01

We have posed the climate change problem in a framework similar to that used in safety engineering, by acknowledging that probabilistic risk assessments focused on low-probability, high-consequence climate events are perhaps more appropriate than studies focused simply on best estimates. To properly explore the tails of the distribution requires extensive sampling, which is not possible with existing coupled atmospheric models due to the high computational cost of each simulation. We have developed specialized statistical surrogate models (SSMs) that can be used to make predictions about the tails of the associated probability distributions. A SSM is different than a deterministic surrogate model in that it represents each climate variable of interest as a space/time random field, that is, a random variable for every fixed location in the atmosphere at all times. The SSM can be calibrated to available spatial and temporal data from existing climate databases, or to a collection of outputs from general circulation models. Because of its reduced size and complexity, the realization of a large number of independent model outputs from a SSM becomes computationally straightforward, so that quantifying the risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence climate events becomes feasible. A Bayesian framework was also developed to provide quantitative measures of confidence, via Bayesian credible intervals, to assess these risks. To illustrate the use of the SSM, we considered two collections of NCAR CCSM 3.0 output data. The first collection corresponds to average December surface temperature for years 1990-1999 based on a collection of 8 different model runs obtained from the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI). We calibrated the surrogate model to the available model data and make various point predictions. We also analyzed average precipitation rate in June, July, and August over a 54-year period assuming a cyclic Y2K ocean model. We applied the calibrated surrogate model to study the probability that the precipitation rate falls below certain thresholds and utilized the Bayesian approach to quantify our confidence in these predictions. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Modified SEAGULL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salas, M. D.; Kuehn, M. S.

1994-01-01

Original version of program incorporated into program SRGULL (LEW-15093) for use on National Aero-Space Plane project, its duty being to model forebody, inlet, and nozzle portions of vehicle. However, real-gas chemistry effects in hypersonic flow fields limited accuracy of that version, because it assumed perfect-gas properties. As a result, SEAGULL modified according to real-gas equilibrium-chemistry methodology. This program analyzes two-dimensional, hypersonic flows of real gases. Modified version of SEAGULL maintains as much of original program as possible, and retains ability to execute original perfect-gas version.

Estimation and enhancement of real-time software reliability through mutation analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geist, Robert; Offutt, A. J.; Harris, Frederick C., Jr.

1992-01-01

A simulation-based technique for obtaining numerical estimates of the reliability of N-version, real-time software is presented. An extended stochastic Petri net is employed to represent the synchronization structure of N versions of the software, where dependencies among versions are modeled through correlated sampling of module execution times. Test results utilizing specifications for NASA's planetary lander control software indicate that mutation-based testing could hold greater potential for enhancing reliability than the desirable but perhaps unachievable goal of independence among N versions.

Reconstructing Common Era Climate Fields Using Data Assimilation, Proxies, and a Linear Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, W. A.; Hakim, G. J.

2016-12-01

In this work, we examine the skill of a new approach to performing climate field reconstructions (CFRs) using a form of online paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA). Many previous studies have foregone climate model forecasts during assimilation due to the computational expense of running coupled global climate models (CGCMs), and the relatively low skill of these forecasts on longer timescales. Here we greatly diminish the computational costs by employing an empirical forecast model (known as a linear inverse model; LIM), which has been shown to have comparable skill to CGCMs. CFRs of annually averaged 2m air temperature anomalies are compared between the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework (no forecasting or "offline"), a persistence forecast, and four LIM forecasting experiments over the instrumental period (1850 - 2000). We test LIM calibrations for observational (Berkeley Earth), reanalysis (20th Century Reanalysis), and CMIP5 climate model (CCSM4 and MPI) data. Generally, we find that the usage of LIM forecasts for online PDA increases reconstruction agreement with the instrumental record for both spatial and global mean temperature (GMT). The detrended GMT skill metrics show the most dramatic increases in skill with coefficient of efficiency (CE) improvements over the no-forecasting benchmark averaging 57%. LIM experiments display a common pattern of spatial field increases in CE skill over northern hemisphere land areas and in the high-latitude North Atlantic - Barents Sea corridor (Figure 1). However, the non-GCM-calibrated LIMs introduce other deficiencies into the spatial skill of these reconstructions, likely due to aspects of the LIM calibration process. Overall, the CMIP5 LIMs have the best performance when considering both spatial fields and GMT. A comparison with the persistence forecast experiment suggests that improvements are associated with the usage of the LIM forecasts, and not simple persistence of temperature anomalies over time. These results show that the use of LIM forecasting can help add further dynamical constraint to CFRs. As we move forward, this will be an important factor in fully utilizing dynamically consistent information from the proxy record while reconstructing the past millennium.

Psychometric evaluation of a unified Portuguese-language version of the Body Shape Questionnaire in female university students.

PubMed

Silva, Wanderson Roberto; Costa, David; Pimenta, Filipa; Maroco, João; Campos, Juliana Alvares Duarte Bonini

2016-07-21

The objectives of this study were to develop a unified Portuguese-language version, for use in Brazil and Portugal, of the Body Shape Questionnaire (BSQ) and to estimate its validity, reliability, and internal consistency in Brazilian and Portuguese female university students. Confirmatory factor analysis was performed using both original (34-item) and shortened (8-item) versions. The model's fit was assessed with χ²/df, CFI, NFI, and RMSEA. Concurrent and convergent validity were assessed. Reliability was estimated through internal consistency and composite reliability (α). Transnational invariance of the BSQ was tested using multi-group analysis. The original 32-item model was refined to present a better fit and adequate validity and reliability. The shortened model was stable in both independent samples and in transnational samples (Brazil and Portugal). The use of this unified version is recommended for the assessment of body shape concerns in both Brazilian and Portuguese college students.

NASA Standard for Models and Simulations: Credibility Assessment Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Babula, Maria; Bertch, William J.; Green, Lawrence L.; Hale, Joseph P.; Moser, Gary E.; Steele, Martin J.; Sylvester, Andre; Woods, Jody

2008-01-01

As one of its many responses to the 2003 Space Shuttle Columbia accident, NASA decided to develop a formal standard for models and simulations (M and S)ii. Work commenced in May 2005. An interim version was issued in late 2006. This interim version underwent considerable revision following an extensive Agency-wide review in 2007 along with some additional revisions as a result of the review by the NASA Engineering Management Board (EMB) in the first half of 2008. Issuance of the revised, permanent version,hereafter referred to as the M and S Standard or just the Standard, occurred in July 2008.

NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM): Capabilities and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McAfee, Julie; Culver, George; Naderi, Mahmoud

2011-01-01

NAFCOM is a parametric estimating tool for space hardware. Uses cost estimating relationships (CERs) which correlate historical costs to mission characteristics to predict new project costs. It is based on historical NASA and Air Force space projects. It is intended to be used in the very early phases of a development project. NAFCOM can be used at the subsystem or component levels and estimates development and production costs. NAFCOM is applicable to various types of missions (crewed spacecraft, uncrewed spacecraft, and launch vehicles). There are two versions of the model: a government version that is restricted and a contractor releasable version.

NASA AVOSS Fast-Time Models for Aircraft Wake Prediction: User's Guide (APA3.8 and TDP2.1)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmad, Nash'at N.; VanValkenburg, Randal L.; Pruis, Matthew J.; Limon Duparcmeur, Fanny M.

2016-01-01

NASA's current distribution of fast-time wake vortex decay and transport models includes APA (Version 3.8) and TDP (Version 2.1). This User's Guide provides detailed information on the model inputs, file formats, and model outputs. A brief description of the Memphis 1995, Dallas/Fort Worth 1997, and the Denver 2003 wake vortex datasets is given along with the evaluation of models. A detailed bibliography is provided which includes publications on model development, wake field experiment descriptions, and applications of the fast-time wake vortex models.

The NASA/MSFC global reference atmospheric model: 1990 version (GRAM-90). Part 1: Technical/users manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Alyea, F. N.; Cunnold, D. M.; Jeffries, W. R., III; Johnson, D. L.

1991-01-01

A technical description of the NASA/MSFC Global Reference Atmospheric Model 1990 version (GRAM-90) is presented with emphasis on the additions and new user's manual descriptions of the program operation aspects of the revised model. Some sample results for the new middle atmosphere section and comparisons with results from a three dimensional circulation model are provided. A programmer's manual with more details for those wishing to make their own GRAM program adaptations is also presented.

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency develops the CMAQ model and periodically releases new versions of the model that include bug fixes and various other improvements to the modeling system. In the fall of 2016, CMAQ version 5.1.1 will be released. This new version of CMAQ will contain important bug fixes to several issues that were identified in CMAQv5.1 (the current public release version of the CMAQ model), and additionally include updates to other portions of the code. Some specific model updates include a new implementation of the wind-blown dust calculation in CMAQv5.1.1 which fixes several bugs that were identified in the current implementation of wind-blown dust in CMAQv5.1. Several other major updates to the model include an update to the calculation of aerosols; implementation of full halogen chemistry (CMAQv5.1 contains a partial implementation of halogen chemistry), which is particularly important for hemispheric applications of the CMAQ model, as halogen chemistry is need to accurately simulation the destruction of ozone over the ocean; and the new carbon bond 6 (CB6) chemical mechanism. Several annual, and numerous episodic, CMAQv5.1.1 simulations will be performed to assess the impact of these

Sharing good NEWS across the world: developing comparable scores across 12 countries for the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale (NEWS).

PubMed

Cerin, Ester; Conway, Terry L; Cain, Kelli L; Kerr, Jacqueline; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Owen, Neville; Reis, Rodrigo S; Sarmiento, Olga L; Hinckson, Erica A; Salvo, Deborah; Christiansen, Lars B; Macfarlane, Duncan J; Davey, Rachel; Mitáš, Josef; Aguinaga-Ontoso, Ines; Sallis, James F

2013-04-08

The IPEN (International Physical Activity and Environment Network) Adult project seeks to conduct pooled analyses of associations of perceived neighborhood environment, as measured by the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale (NEWS) and its abbreviated version (NEWS-A), with physical activity using data from 12 countries. As IPEN countries used adapted versions of the NEWS/NEWS-A, this paper aimed to develop scoring protocols that maximize cross-country comparability in responses. This information is also highly relevant to non-IPEN studies employing the NEWS/NEWS-A, which is one of the most popular measures of perceived environment globally. The following countries participated in the IPEN Adult study: Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hong Kong, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Participants (N = 14,305) were recruited from neighborhoods varying in walkability and socio-economic status. Countries collected data on the perceived environment using a self- or interviewer-administered version of the NEWS/NEWS-A. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to derive comparable country-specific measurement models of the NEWS/NEWS-A. The level of correspondence between standard and alternative versions of the NEWS/NEWS-A factor-analyzable subscales was determined by estimating the correlations and mean standardized difference (Cohen's d) between them using data from countries that had included items from both standard and alternative versions of the subscales. Final country-specific measurement models of the NEWS/NEWS-A provided acceptable levels of fit to the data and shared the same factorial structure with six latent factors and two single items. The correspondence between the standard and alternative versions of subscales of Land use mix - access, Infrastructure and safety for walking/cycling, and Aesthetics was high. The Brazilian version of the Traffic safety subscale was highly, while the Australian and Belgian versions were marginally, comparable to the standard version. Single-item versions of the Street connectivity subscale used in Australia and Belgium showed marginally acceptable correspondence to the standard version. We have proposed country-specific modifications to the original scoring protocol of the NEWS/NEWS-A that enhance inter-country comparability. These modifications have yielded sufficiently equivalent measurement models of the NEWS/NEWS-A. Some inter-country discrepancies remain. These need to be considered when interpreting findings from different countries.

Sharing good NEWS across the world: developing comparable scores across 12 countries for the neighborhood environment walkability scale (NEWS)

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The IPEN (International Physical Activity and Environment Network) Adult project seeks to conduct pooled analyses of associations of perceived neighborhood environment, as measured by the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale (NEWS) and its abbreviated version (NEWS-A), with physical activity using data from 12 countries. As IPEN countries used adapted versions of the NEWS/NEWS-A, this paper aimed to develop scoring protocols that maximize cross-country comparability in responses. This information is also highly relevant to non-IPEN studies employing the NEWS/NEWS-A, which is one of the most popular measures of perceived environment globally. Methods The following countries participated in the IPEN Adult study: Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hong Kong, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Participants (N = 14,305) were recruited from neighborhoods varying in walkability and socio-economic status. Countries collected data on the perceived environment using a self- or interviewer-administered version of the NEWS/NEWS-A. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to derive comparable country-specific measurement models of the NEWS/NEWS-A. The level of correspondence between standard and alternative versions of the NEWS/NEWS-A factor-analyzable subscales was determined by estimating the correlations and mean standardized difference (Cohen’s d) between them using data from countries that had included items from both standard and alternative versions of the subscales. Results Final country-specific measurement models of the NEWS/NEWS-A provided acceptable levels of fit to the data and shared the same factorial structure with six latent factors and two single items. The correspondence between the standard and alternative versions of subscales of Land use mix – access, Infrastructure and safety for walking/cycling, and Aesthetics was high. The Brazilian version of the Traffic safety subscale was highly, while the Australian and Belgian versions were marginally, comparable to the standard version. Single-item versions of the Street connectivity subscale used in Australia and Belgium showed marginally acceptable correspondence to the standard version. Conclusions We have proposed country-specific modifications to the original scoring protocol of the NEWS/NEWS-A that enhance inter-country comparability. These modifications have yielded sufficiently equivalent measurement models of the NEWS/NEWS-A. Some inter-country discrepancies remain. These need to be considered when interpreting findings from different countries. PMID:23566032

78 FR 11122 - Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Pennsylvania; Motor Vehicle...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-15

... of the most recent version of the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator model (MOVES). Those counties are... Area's ability to continue to attain the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS. This action is being taken under section... version of the MOVES model. On January 29, 2013, Pennsylvania DEP submitted its formal, final SIP revision...

A Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge Based Instructional Design Model: A Third Version Implementation Study in a Technology Integration Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Chia-Jung; Kim, ChanMin

2017-01-01

This paper presents the third version of a technological pedagogical content knowledge (TPACK) based instructional design model that incorporates the distinctive, transformative, and integrative views of TPACK into a comprehensive actionable framework. Strategies of relating TPACK domains to real-life learning experiences, role-playing, and…

A new version of code Java for 3D simulation of the CCA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kebo; Xiong, Hailing; Li, Chao

2016-07-01

In this paper we present a new version of the program of CCA model. In order to benefit from the advantages involved in the latest technologies, we migrated the running environment from JDK1.6 to JDK1.7. And the old program was optimized into a new framework, so promoted extendibility.

Introduction to SWAT+, a completely restructured version of the soil and water assessment tool

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

SWAT+ is a completely revised version of SWAT that was developed to face present and future challenges in water resources modeling and management and to meet the needs of the growing worldwide user community. SWAT+ addresses several of the limitations of the model reported in the large body of peer...

MODIFIED N.R.C. VERSION OF THE U.S.G.S. SOLUTE TRANSPORT MODEL. VOLUME 2. INTERACTIVE PREPROCESSOR PROGRAM

EPA Science Inventory

The methods described in the report can be used with the modified N.R.C. version of the U.S.G.S. Solute Transport Model to predict the concentration of chemical parameters in a contaminant plume. The two volume report contains program documentation and user's manual. The program ...

MODIFIED N.R.C. VERSION OF THE U.S.G.S. SOLUTE TRANSPORT MODEL. VOLUME 1. MODIFICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The methods described in the report can be used with the modified N.R.C. version of the U.S.G.S. Solute Transport Model to predict the concentration of chemical parameters in a contaminant plume. The two volume report contains program documentation and user's manual. The program ...

Mexican/Mexican American Adolescents and "Keepin' It REAL": An Evidence-Based Substance Use Prevention Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kulis, Stephen; Marsiglia, Flavio F.; Elek, Elvira; Dustman, Patricia; Wagstaff, David A.; Hecht, Michael L.

2005-01-01

A randomized trial tested the efficacy of three curriculum versions teaching drug resistance strategies, one modeled on Mexican American culture; another modeled on European American and African American culture; and a multicultural version. Self-report data at baseline and 14 months post-intervention were obtained from 3,402 Mexican heritage…

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, C.; Lyon, B.; Ricciardulli, L.

2012-01-01

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Electroacoustic theory for concentrated colloids with overlapped DLs at arbitrary kappa alpha. I. Application to nanocolloids and nonaqueous colloids.

PubMed

Shilov, V N; Borkovskaja, Y B; Dukhin, A S

2004-09-15

Existing theories of electroacoustic phenomena in concentrated colloids neglect the possibility of double layer overlap and are valid mostly for the "thin double layer," when the double layer thickness is much less than the particle size. In this paper we present a new electroacoustic theory which removes this restriction. This would make this new theory applicable to characterizing a variety of aqueous nanocolloids and of nonaqueous dispersions. There are two versions of the theory leading to the analytical solutions. The first version corresponds to strongly overlapped diffuse layers (so-called quasi-homogeneous model). It yields a simple analytical formula for colloid vibration current (CVI), which is valid for arbitrary ultrasound frequency, but for restricted kappa alpha range. This version of the theory, as well the Smoluchowski theory for microelectrophoresis, is independent of particle shape and polydispersity. This makes it very attractive for practical use, with the hope that it might be as useful as classical Smoluchowski theory. In order to determine the kappa alpha range of the quasi-homogeneous model validity we develop the second version that limits ultrasound frequency, but applies no restriction on kappa alpha. The ultrasound frequency should substantially exceed the Maxwell-Wagner relaxation frequency. This limitation makes active conductivity related current negligible compared to the passive dielectric displacement current. It is possible to derive an expression for CVI in the concentrated dispersion as formulae inhering definite integrals with integrands depending on equilibrium potential distribution. This second version allowed us to estimate the ranges of the applicability of the first, quasi-homogeneous version. It turns out that the quasi-homogeneous model works for kappa alpha values up to almost 1. For instance, at volume fraction 30%, the highest kappa alpha limit of the quasi-homogeneous model is 0.65. Therefore, this version of the electroacoustic theory is valid for almost all nonaqueous dispersions and a wide variety of nanocolloids, especially with sizes under 100 nm.

SHABERTH - ANALYSIS OF A SHAFT BEARING SYSTEM (CRAY VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coe, H. H.

1994-01-01

The SHABERTH computer program was developed to predict operating characteristics of bearings in a multibearing load support system. Lubricated and non-lubricated bearings can be modeled. SHABERTH calculates the loads, torques, temperatures, and fatigue life for ball and/or roller bearings on a single shaft. The program also allows for an analysis of the system reaction to the termination of lubricant supply to the bearings and other lubricated mechanical elements. SHABERTH has proven to be a valuable tool in the design and analysis of shaft bearing systems. The SHABERTH program is structured with four nested calculation schemes. The thermal scheme performs steady state and transient temperature calculations which predict system temperatures for a given operating state. The bearing dimensional equilibrium scheme uses the bearing temperatures, predicted by the temperature mapping subprograms, and the rolling element raceway load distribution, predicted by the bearing subprogram, to calculate bearing diametral clearance for a given operating state. The shaft-bearing system load equilibrium scheme calculates bearing inner ring positions relative to the respective outer rings such that the external loading applied to the shaft is brought into equilibrium by the rolling element loads which develop at each bearing inner ring for a given operating state. The bearing rolling element and cage load equilibrium scheme calculates the rolling element and cage equilibrium positions and rotational speeds based on the relative inner-outer ring positions, inertia effects, and friction conditions. The ball bearing subprograms in the current SHABERTH program have several model enhancements over similar programs. These enhancements include an elastohydrodynamic (EHD) film thickness model that accounts for thermal heating in the contact area and lubricant film starvation; a new model for traction combined with an asperity load sharing model; a model for the hydrodynamic rolling and shear forces in the inlet zone of lubricated contacts, which accounts for the degree of lubricant film starvation; modeling normal and friction forces between a ball and a cage pocket, which account for the transition between the hydrodynamic and elastohydrodynamic regimes of lubrication; and a model of the effect on fatigue life of the ratio of the EHD plateau film thickness to the composite surface roughness. SHABERTH is intended to be as general as possible. The models in SHABERTH allow for the complete mathematical simulation of real physical systems. Systems are limited to a maximum of five bearings supporting the shaft, a maximum of thirty rolling elements per bearing, and a maximum of one hundred temperature nodes. The SHABERTH program structure is modular and has been designed to permit refinement and replacement of various component models as the need and opportunities develop. A preprocessor is included in the IBM PC version of SHABERTH to provide a user friendly means of developing SHABERTH models and executing the resulting code. The preprocessor allows the user to create and modify data files with minimal effort and a reduced chance for errors. Data is utilized as it is entered; the preprocessor then decides what additional data is required to complete the model. Only this required information is requested. The preprocessor can accommodate data input for any SHABERTH compatible shaft bearing system model. The system may include ball bearings, roller bearings, and/or tapered roller bearings. SHABERTH is written in FORTRAN 77, and two machine versions are available from COSMIC. The CRAY version (LEW-14860) has a RAM requirement of 176K of 64 bit words. The IBM PC version (MFS-28818) is written for IBM PC series and compatible computers running MS-DOS, and includes a sample MS-DOS executable. For execution, the PC version requires at least 1Mb of RAM and an 80386 or 486 processor machine with an 80x87 math co-processor. The standard distribution medium for the IBM PC version is a set of two 5.25 inch 360K MS-DOS format diskettes. The contents of the diskettes are compressed using the PKWARE archiving tools. The utility to unarchive the files, PKUNZIP.EXE, is included. The standard distribution medium for the CRAY version is also a 5.25 inch 360K MS-DOS format diskette, but alternate distribution media and formats are available upon request. The original version of SHABERTH was developed in FORTRAN IV at Lewis Research Center for use on a UNIVAC 1100 series computer. The Cray version was released in 1988, and was updated in 1990 to incorporate fluid rheological data for Rocket Propellant 1 (RP-1), thereby allowing the analysis of bearings lubricated with RP-1. The PC version is a port of the 1990 CRAY version and was developed in 1992 by SRS Technologies under contract to NASA Marshall Space Flight Center.

Evaluating the improvements of the BOLAM meteorological model operational at ISPRA: A case study approach - preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, S.; Casaioli, M.; Lastoria, B.; Accadia, C.; Flavoni, S.

2009-04-01

The Institute for Environmental Protection and Research - ISPRA (former Agency for Environmental Protection and Technical Services - APAT) runs operationally since 2000 an integrated meteo-marine forecasting chain, named the Hydro-Meteo-Marine Forecasting System (Sistema Idro-Meteo-Mare - SIMM), formed by a cascade of four numerical models, telescoping from the Mediterranean basin to the Venice Lagoon, and initialized by means of analyses and forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The operational integrated system consists of a meteorological model, the parallel verision of BOlogna Limited Area Model (BOLAM), coupled over the Mediterranean sea with a WAve Model (WAM), a high-resolution shallow-water model of the Adriatic and Ionian Sea, namely the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), and a finite-element version of the same model (VL-FEM) on the Venice Lagoon, aimed to forecast the acqua alta events. Recently, the physically based, fully distributed, rainfall-runoff TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI) model has been integrated into the system, coupled to BOLAM, over two river basins, located in the central and northeastern part of Italy, respectively. However, at the present time, this latter part of the forecasting chain is not operational and it is used in a research configuration. BOLAM was originally implemented in 2000 onto the Quadrics parallel supercomputer (and for this reason referred to as QBOLAM, as well) and only at the end of 2006 it was ported (together with the other operational marine models of the forecasting chain) onto the Silicon Graphics Inc. (SGI) Altix 8-processor machine. In particular, due to the Quadrics implementation, the Kuo scheme was formerly implemented into QBOLAM for the cumulus convection parameterization. On the contrary, when porting SIMM onto the Altix Linux cluster, it was achievable to implement into QBOLAM the more advanced convection parameterization by Kain and Fritsch. A fully updated serial version of the BOLAM code has been recently acquired. Code improvements include a more precise advection scheme (Weighted Average Flux); explicit advection of five hydrometeors, and state-of-the-art parameterization schemes for radiation, convection, boundary layer turbulence and soil processes (also with possible choice among different available schemes). The operational implementation of the new code into the SIMM model chain, which requires the development of a parallel version, will be achieved during 2009. In view of this goal, the comparative verification of the different model versions' skill represents a fundamental task. On this purpose, it has been decided to evaluate the performance improvement of the new BOLAM code (in the available serial version, hereinafter BOLAM 2007) with respect to the version with the Kain-Fritsch scheme (hereinafter KF version) and to the older one employing the Kuo scheme (hereinafter Kuo version). In the present work, verification of precipitation forecasts from the three BOLAM versions is carried on in a case study approach. The intense rainfall episode occurred on 10th - 17th December 2008 over Italy has been considered. This event produced indeed severe damages in Rome and its surrounding areas. Objective and subjective verification methods have been employed in order to evaluate model performance against an observational dataset including rain gauge observations and satellite imagery. Subjective comparison of observed and forecast precipitation fields is suitable to give an overall description of the forecast quality. Spatial errors (e.g., shifting and pattern errors) and rainfall volume error can be assessed quantitatively by means of object-oriented methods. By comparing satellite images with model forecast fields, it is possible to investigate the differences between the evolution of the observed weather system and the predicted ones, and its sensitivity to the improvements in the model code. Finally, the error in forecasting the cyclone evolution can be tentatively related with the precipitation forecast error.

Revision history aware repositories of computational models of biological systems.

PubMed

Miller, Andrew K; Yu, Tommy; Britten, Randall; Cooling, Mike T; Lawson, James; Cowan, Dougal; Garny, Alan; Halstead, Matt D B; Hunter, Peter J; Nickerson, David P; Nunns, Geo; Wimalaratne, Sarala M; Nielsen, Poul M F

2011-01-14

Building repositories of computational models of biological systems ensures that published models are available for both education and further research, and can provide a source of smaller, previously verified models to integrate into a larger model. One problem with earlier repositories has been the limitations in facilities to record the revision history of models. Often, these facilities are limited to a linear series of versions which were deposited in the repository. This is problematic for several reasons. Firstly, there are many instances in the history of biological systems modelling where an 'ancestral' model is modified by different groups to create many different models. With a linear series of versions, if the changes made to one model are merged into another model, the merge appears as a single item in the history. This hides useful revision history information, and also makes further merges much more difficult, as there is no record of which changes have or have not already been merged. In addition, a long series of individual changes made outside of the repository are also all merged into a single revision when they are put back into the repository, making it difficult to separate out individual changes. Furthermore, many earlier repositories only retain the revision history of individual files, rather than of a group of files. This is an important limitation to overcome, because some types of models, such as CellML 1.1 models, can be developed as a collection of modules, each in a separate file. The need for revision history is widely recognised for computer software, and a lot of work has gone into developing version control systems and distributed version control systems (DVCSs) for tracking the revision history. However, to date, there has been no published research on how DVCSs can be applied to repositories of computational models of biological systems. We have extended the Physiome Model Repository software to be fully revision history aware, by building it on top of Mercurial, an existing DVCS. We have demonstrated the utility of this approach, when used in conjunction with the model composition facilities in CellML, to build and understand more complex models. We have also demonstrated the ability of the repository software to present version history to casual users over the web, and to highlight specific versions which are likely to be useful to users. Providing facilities for maintaining and using revision history information is an important part of building a useful repository of computational models, as this information is useful both for understanding the source of and justification for parts of a model, and to facilitate automated processes such as merges. The availability of fully revision history aware repositories, and associated tools, will therefore be of significant benefit to the community.

Retrospective Analysis of Clinical Performance of an Estonian Speech Recognition System for Radiology: Effects of Different Acoustic and Language Models.

PubMed

Paats, A; Alumäe, T; Meister, E; Fridolin, I

2018-04-30

The aim of this study was to analyze retrospectively the influence of different acoustic and language models in order to determine the most important effects to the clinical performance of an Estonian language-based non-commercial radiology-oriented automatic speech recognition (ASR) system. An ASR system was developed for Estonian language in radiology domain by utilizing open-source software components (Kaldi toolkit, Thrax). The ASR system was trained with the real radiology text reports and dictations collected during development phases. The final version of the ASR system was tested by 11 radiologists who dictated 219 reports in total, in spontaneous manner in a real clinical environment. The audio files collected in the final phase were used to measure the performance of different versions of the ASR system retrospectively. ASR system versions were evaluated by word error rate (WER) for each speaker and modality and by WER difference for the first and the last version of the ASR system. Total average WER for the final version throughout all material was improved from 18.4% of the first version (v1) to 5.8% of the last (v8) version which corresponds to relative improvement of 68.5%. WER improvement was strongly related to modality and radiologist. In summary, the performance of the final ASR system version was close to optimal, delivering similar results to all modalities and being independent on user, the complexity of the radiology reports, user experience, and speech characteristics.

Validation of Malaysian Versions of Perceived Diabetes Self-Management Scale (PDSMS), Medication Understanding and Use Self-Efficacy Scale (MUSE) and 8-Morisky Medication Adherence Scale (MMAS-8) Using Partial Credit Rasch Model.

PubMed

Al Abboud, Safaa Ahmed; Ahmad, Sohail; Bidin, Mohamed Badrulnizam Long; Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah

2016-11-01

The Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is a common silent epidemic disease with frequent morbidity and mortality. The psychological and psychosocial health factors are negatively influencing the glycaemic control in diabetic patients. Therefore, various questionnaires were developed to address the psychological and psychosocial well-being of the diabetic patients. Most of these questionnaires were first developed in English and then translated into different languages to make them useful for the local communities. The main aim of this study was to translate and validate the Malaysian versions of Perceived Diabetes Self-Management Scale (PDSMS), Medication Understanding and Use Self-Efficacy Scale (MUSE), and to revalidate 8-Morisky Medication Adherence Scale (MMAS-8) by Partial Credit Rasch Model (Modern Test Theory). Permission was obtained from respective authors to translate the English versions of PDSMS, MUSE and MMAS-8 into Malay language according to established standard international translation guidelines. In this cross-sectional study, 62 adult DM patients were recruited from Hospital Kuala Lumpur by purposive sampling method. The data were extracted from the self-administered questionnaires and entered manually in the Ministeps (Winsteps) software for Partial Credit Rasch Model. The item and person reliability, infit/outfit Z-Standard (ZSTD), infit/outfit Mean Square (MNSQ) and point measure correlation (PTMEA Corr) values were analysed for the reliability analyses and construct validation. The Malay version of PDSMS, MUSE and MMAS-8 found to be valid and reliable instrument for the Malaysian diabetic adults. The instrument showed good overall reliability value of 0.76 and 0.93 for item and person reliability, respectively. The values of infit/outfit ZSTD, infit/outfit MNSQ, and PTMEA Corr were also within the stipulated range of the Rasch Model proving the valid item constructs of the questionnaire. The translated Malay version of PDSMS, MUSE and MMAS-8 was found to be a highly reliable and valid questionnaire by Partial Credit Model. The Malay version was conceptually equivalent to original version, easy to understand and can be used for the Malaysian adult diabetic patients for future studies.

Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Abdel Kader, M.; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.

2012-11-01

Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a globally uniform soil particle size distribution, whereas the other explicitly accounts for different soil textures worldwide. We have tested these two versions and investigated the sensitivity to input parameters, using remote sensing data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and dust concentrations and deposition measurements from the AeroCom dust benchmark database (and others). The two versions are shown to produce similar atmospheric dust loads in the N-African region, while they deviate in the Asian, Middle Eastern and S-American regions. The dust outflow from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean is accurately simulated by both schemes, in magnitude, location and seasonality. Approximately 70% of the modelled annual deposition data and 70-75% of the modelled monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Atlantic Ocean stations lay in the range 0.5 to 2 times the observations for all simulations. The two versions have similar performance, even though the total annual source differs by ~50%, which underscores the importance of transport and deposition processes (being the same for both versions). Even though the explicit soil particle size distribution is considered more realistic, the simpler scheme appears to perform better in several locations. This paper discusses the differences between the two versions of the dust emission scheme, focusing on their limitations and strengths in describing the global dust cycle and suggests possible future improvements.

The Development of a New Model of Solar EUV Irradiance Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warren, Harry; Wagner, William J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The goal of this research project is the development of a new model of solar EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) irradiance variability. The model is based on combining differential emission measure distributions derived from spatially and spectrally resolved observations of active regions, coronal holes, and the quiet Sun with full-disk solar images. An initial version of this model was developed with earlier funding from NASA. The new version of the model developed with this research grant will incorporate observations from SoHO as well as updated compilations of atomic data. These improvements will make the model calculations much more accurate.

SMP: A solid modeling program version 2.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randall, D. P.; Jones, K. H.; Vonofenheim, W. H.; Gates, R. L.; Matthews, C. G.

1986-01-01

The Solid Modeling Program (SMP) provides the capability to model complex solid objects through the composition of primitive geometric entities. In addition to the construction of solid models, SMP has extensive facilities for model editing, display, and analysis. The geometric model produced by the software system can be output in a format compatible with existing analysis programs such as PATRAN-G. The present version of the SMP software supports six primitives: boxes, cones, spheres, paraboloids, tori, and trusses. The details for creating each of the major primitive types is presented. The analysis capabilities of SMP, including interfaces to existing analysis programs, are discussed.

Updating sea spray aerosol emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0.2

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The uploaded data consists of the BRACE Na aerosol observations paired with CMAQ model output, the updated model's parameterization of sea salt aerosol emission size distribution, and the model's parameterization of the sea salt emission factor as a function of sea surface temperature. This dataset is associated with the following publication:Gantt , B., J. Kelly , and J. Bash. Updating sea spray aerosol emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0.2. Geoscientific Model Development. Copernicus Publications, Katlenburg-Lindau, GERMANY, 8: 3733-3746, (2015).

User's Guide for Evaluating Subsurface Vapor Intrusion into Buildings

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This revised version of the User's Guide corresponds with the release of Version 3.1 of the Johnson and Ettinger (1991) model (J E) spreadsheets for estimating subsurface vapor intrusion into buildings.

Indoor Semi-volatile Organic Compounds (i-SVOC) Version 1.0

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

i-SVOC Version 1.0 is a general-purpose software application for dynamic modeling of the emission, transport, sorption, and distribution of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) in indoor environments.

Accuracy of GIPSY PPP from version 6.2: a robust method to remove outliers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayal, Adem G.; Ugur Sanli, D.

2014-05-01

In this paper, we figure out the accuracy of GIPSY PPP from the latest version, version 6.2. As the research community prepares for the real-time PPP, it would be interesting to revise the accuracy of static GPS from the latest version of well established research software, the first among its kinds. Although the results do not significantly differ from the previous version, version 6.1.1, we still observe the slight improvement on the vertical component due to an enhanced second order ionospheric modeling which came out with the latest version. However, in this study, we rather turned our attention into outlier detection. Outliers usually occur among the solutions from shorter observation sessions and degrade the quality of the accuracy modeling. In our previous analysis from version 6.1.1, we argued that the elimination of outliers was cumbersome with the traditional method since repeated trials were needed, and subjectivity that could affect the statistical significance of the solutions might have been existed among the results (Hayal and Sanli, 2013). Here we overcome this problem using a robust outlier elimination method. Median is perhaps the simplest of the robust outlier detection methods in terms of applicability. At the same time, it might be considered to be the most efficient one with its highest breakdown point. In our analysis, we used a slightly different version of the median as introduced in Tut et al. 2013. Hence, we were able to remove suspected outliers at one run; which were, with the traditional methods, more problematic to remove this time from the solutions produced using the latest version of the software. References Hayal, AG, Sanli DU, Accuracy of GIPSY PPP from version 6, GNSS Precise Point Positioning Workshop: Reaching Full Potential, Vol. 1, pp. 41-42, (2013) Tut,İ., Sanli D.U., Erdogan B., Hekimoglu S., Efficiency of BERNESE single baseline rapid static positioning solutions with SEARCH strategy, Survey Review, Vol. 45, Issue 331, pp.296-304, (2013)

Rotary engine performance computer program (RCEMAP and RCEMAPPC): User's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartrand, Timothy A.; Willis, Edward A.

1993-01-01

This report is a user's guide for a computer code that simulates the performance of several rotary combustion engine configurations. It is intended to assist prospective users in getting started with RCEMAP and/or RCEMAPPC. RCEMAP (Rotary Combustion Engine performance MAP generating code) is the mainframe version, while RCEMAPPC is a simplified subset designed for the personal computer, or PC, environment. Both versions are based on an open, zero-dimensional combustion system model for the prediction of instantaneous pressures, temperature, chemical composition and other in-chamber thermodynamic properties. Both versions predict overall engine performance and thermal characteristics, including bmep, bsfc, exhaust gas temperature, average material temperatures, and turbocharger operating conditions. Required inputs include engine geometry, materials, constants for use in the combustion heat release model, and turbomachinery maps. Illustrative examples and sample input files for both versions are included.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hadgu, Teklu; Appel, Gordon John

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) continued evaluation of total system performance assessment (TSPA) computing systems for the previously considered Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). This was done to maintain the operational readiness of the computing infrastructure (computer hardware and software) and knowledge capability for total system performance assessment (TSPA) type analysis, as directed by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), DOE 2010. This work is a continuation of the ongoing readiness evaluation reported in Lee and Hadgu (2014) and Hadgu et al. (2015). The TSPA computing hardware (CL2014) and storage system described in Hadgu et al. (2015) were used for the currentmore » analysis. One floating license of GoldSim with Versions 9.60.300, 10.5 and 11.1.6 was installed on the cluster head node, and its distributed processing capability was mapped on the cluster processors. Other supporting software were tested and installed to support the TSPA-type analysis on the server cluster. The current tasks included verification of the TSPA-LA uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, and preliminary upgrade of the TSPA-LA from Version 9.60.300 to the latest version 11.1. All the TSPA-LA uncertainty and sensitivity analyses modeling cases were successfully tested and verified for the model reproducibility on the upgraded 2014 server cluster (CL2014). The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses used TSPA-LA modeling cases output generated in FY15 based on GoldSim Version 9.60.300 documented in Hadgu et al. (2015). The model upgrade task successfully converted the Nominal Modeling case to GoldSim Version 11.1. Upgrade of the remaining of the modeling cases and distributed processing tasks will continue. The 2014 server cluster and supporting software systems are fully operational to support TSPA-LA type analysis.« less

Shared decision making, paternalism and patient choice.

PubMed

Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian

2010-03-01

In patient centred care, shared decision making is a central feature and widely referred to as a norm for patient centred medical consultation. However, it is far from clear how to distinguish SDM from standard models and ideals for medical decision making, such as paternalism and patient choice, and e.g., whether paternalism and patient choice can involve a greater degree of the sort of sharing involved in SDM and still retain their essential features. In the article, different versions of SDM are explored, versions compatible with paternalism and patient choice as well as versions that go beyond these traditional decision making models. Whenever SDM is discussed or introduced it is of importance to be clear over which of these different versions are being pursued, since they connect to basic values and ideals of health care in different ways. It is further argued that we have reason to pursue versions of SDM involving, what is called, a high level dynamics in medical decision-making. This leaves four alternative models to choose between depending on how we balance between the values of patient best interest, patient autonomy, and an effective decision in terms of patient compliance or adherence: Shared Rational Deliberative Patient Choice, Shared Rational Deliberative Paternalism, Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision, and Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise. In relation to these models it is argued that we ideally should use the Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision model. However, when the patient and professional fail to reach consensus we will have reason to pursue the Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise model since this will best harmonise between the different values at stake: patient best interest, patient autonomy, patient adherence and a continued care relationship.

Description and evaluation of a new four-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) within version 5.3 of the Community Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Ma, P.-L.; Wang, H.; Tilmes, S.; Singh, B.; Easter, R. C.; Ghan, S. J.; Rasch, P. J.

2016-02-01

Atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols play an important role in the climate system by influencing the Earth's radiation budgets and modifying the cloud properties. Despite the importance, their representations in large-scale atmospheric models are still crude, which can influence model simulated burden, lifetime, physical, chemical and optical properties, and the climate forcing of carbonaceous aerosols. In this study, we improve the current three-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM3) in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) by introducing an additional primary carbon mode to explicitly account for the microphysical ageing of primary carbonaceous aerosols in the atmosphere. Compared to MAM3, the four-mode version of MAM (MAM4) significantly increases the column burdens of primary particulate organic matter (POM) and black carbon (BC) by up to 40 % in many remote regions, where in-cloud scavenging plays an important role in determining the aerosol concentrations. Differences in the column burdens for other types of aerosol (e.g., sulfate, secondary organic aerosols, mineral dust, sea salt) are less than 1 %. Evaluating the MAM4 simulation against in situ surface and aircraft observations, we find that MAM4 significantly improves the simulation of seasonal variation of near-surface BC concentrations in the polar regions, by increasing the BC concentrations in all seasons and particularly in cold seasons. However, it exacerbates the overestimation of modeled BC concentrations in the upper troposphere in the Pacific regions. The comparisons suggest that, to address the remaining model POM and BC biases, future improvements are required related to (1) in-cloud scavenging and vertical transport in convective clouds and (2) emissions of anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosols.

Description and evaluation of a new four-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) within version 5.3 of the Community Atmosphere Model

DOE PAGES

Liu, X.; Ma, P. -L.; Wang, H.; ...

2016-02-08

Atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols play an important role in the climate system by influencing the Earth's radiation budgets and modifying the cloud properties. Despite the importance, their representations in large-scale atmospheric models are still crude, which can influence model simulated burden, lifetime, physical, chemical and optical properties, and the climate forcing of carbonaceous aerosols. In this study, we improve the current three-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM3) in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) by introducing an additional primary carbon mode to explicitly account for the microphysical ageing of primary carbonaceous aerosols in the atmosphere. Compared to MAM3,more » the four-mode version of MAM (MAM4) significantly increases the column burdens of primary particulate organic matter (POM) and black carbon (BC) by up to 40 % in many remote regions, where in-cloud scavenging plays an important role in determining the aerosol concentrations. Differences in the column burdens for other types of aerosol (e.g., sulfate, secondary organic aerosols, mineral dust, sea salt) are less than 1 %. Evaluating the MAM4 simulation against in situ surface and aircraft observations, we find that MAM4 significantly improves the simulation of seasonal variation of near-surface BC concentrations in the polar regions, by increasing the BC concentrations in all seasons and particularly in cold seasons. However, it exacerbates the overestimation of modeled BC concentrations in the upper troposphere in the Pacific regions. As a result, the comparisons suggest that, to address the remaining model POM and BC biases, future improvements are required related to (1) in-cloud scavenging and vertical transport in convective clouds and (2) emissions of anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosols.« less

Recent developments of DMI's operational system: Coupled Ecosystem-Circulation-and SPM model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murawski, Jens; Tian, Tian; Dobrynin, Mikhail

2010-05-01

ECOOP is a pan- European project with 72 partners from 29 countries around the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland region, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea. The project aims at the development and the integration of the different coastal and regional observation and forecasting systems. The Danish Meteorological Institute DMI coordinates the project and is responsible for the Baltic Sea regional forecasting System. Over the project period, the Baltic Sea system was developed from a purely hydro dynamical model (version V1), running operationally since summer 2009, to a coupled model platform (version V2), including model components for the simulation of suspended particles, data assimilation and ecosystem variables. The ECOOP V2 model is currently tested and validated, and will replace the V1 version soon. The coupled biogeochemical- and circulation model runs operationally since November 2009. The daily forecasts are presented at DMI's homepage http:/ocean.dmi.dk. The presentation includes a short description of the ECOOP forecasting system, discusses the model results and shows the outcome of the model validation.

Estimating the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on alluvial aquifers. Case study in central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Pica, Federico; Preziosi, Elisabetta

2014-05-01

There is evidence that the precipitation pattern in Europe is trending towards more humid conditions in the northern region and drier conditions in the southern and central-eastern regions. However, a great deal of uncertainty concerns how the changes in precipitations will have an impact on water resources, particularly on groundwater, and this uncertainty should be evaluated on the basis of that coming from 1) future climate scenarios of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and 2) modeling chains including the downscaling technique, the infiltration model and the calibration/validation procedure used to develop the groundwater flow model. With the aim of quantifying the uncertainty of these components, the Valle Umbra porous aquifer (Central Italy) has been considered as a case study. This aquifer, that is exploited for human consumption and irrigation, is mainly fed by the effective infiltration from the ground surface and partly by the inflow from the carbonate aquifers bordering the valley. A numerical groundwater flow model has been developed through the finite difference MODFLOW2005 code and it has been calibrated and validated considering the recharge regime computed through a Thornthwaite-Mather infiltration model under the climate conditions observed in the period 1956-2012. Future scenarios (2010-2070) of temperature and precipitation have been obtained from three different GMCs: ECHAM-5 (Max Planck Institute, Germany), PCM (National Centre Atmospheric Research) and CCSM3 (National Centre Atmospheric Research). Each scenario has been downscaled (DSC) to the data of temperature and precipitation collected in the baseline period 1960-1990 at the stations located in the study area through two different statistical techniques (linear rescaling and quantile mapping). Then, stochastic rainfall and temperature time series are generated through the Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model (NSRP) for precipitation and the Fractionally Differenced ARIMA model (FARIMA) for temperature. Such a procedure has allowed to estimate, through the Thornthwaite-Mather model, the uncertainty related to the future scenarios of recharge to the aquifer. Finally, all the scenarios of recharge have been used as input to the groundwater flow model and the results have been evaluated in terms of the uncertainty on the computed aquifer heads and total budget. The main results have indicated that most of the uncertainty on the impact to the aquifer arise from the uncertainty on the first part of the processing chain GCM-DSC.

Evaluation of CESM1 (WACCM) with Observations of Stratospheric Composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnison, Doug; Froidevaux, Lucien; Garcia, Rolando; Fuller, Ryan

2017-04-01

The Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is used in this study. CESM1 (WACCM) includes a detailed representation of tropospheric through lower thermospheric chemistry and physical processes. Simulations for this work were based on scenarios defined by the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). These scenarios included both free-running (FR) and specified-dynamics versions (SD) of CESM1 (WACCM). Comparisons were made with global monthly zonal mean stratospheric data records from satellite-based remote measurements created by the Global Ozone Chemistry and Related Trace gas Data Records for the Stratosphere (GOZCARDS) project. These data records were drawn from high quality measurements of stratospheric composition starting in 1979 for ozone and in the early 1990s for other species. We discuss stratospheric variability and trends through analyses of observed time series of ozone (O3), hydrogen chloride (HCl), nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric acid (HNO3), and water vapor (H2O), and we contrast the fits from the FR and SD model versions. Conclusions from this work have aided in the development of a new version of CESM (WACCM) that will be used in the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) assessment.

HyRAM V1.0 User Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina M.; Zumwalt, Hannah Ruth; Clark, Andrew Jordan

2016-03-01

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) is a prototype software toolkit that integrates data and methods relevant to assessing the safety of hydrogen fueling and storage infrastructure. The HyRAM toolkit integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing the impact of hydrogen hazards, including thermal effects from jet fires and thermal pressure effects from deflagration. HyRAM version 1.0 incorporates generic probabilities for equipment failures for nine types of components, and probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, with computationally and experimentally validated models of various aspects of gaseous hydrogen releasemore » and flame physics. This document provides an example of how to use HyRAM to conduct analysis of a fueling facility. This document will guide users through the software and how to enter and edit certain inputs that are specific to the user-defined facility. Description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM is provided in [1]. This User’s Guide is intended to capture the main features of HyRAM version 1.0 (any HyRAM version numbered as 1.0.X.XXX). This user guide was created with HyRAM 1.0.1.798. Due to ongoing software development activities, newer versions of HyRAM may have differences from this guide.« less

Measuring Health-Related Quality of Life of HIV-Positive Adolescents in Resource-Constrained Settings

PubMed Central

Masquillier, Caroline; Wouters, Edwin; Loos, Jasna; Nöstlinger, Christiana

2012-01-01

Background and Objectives Access to antiretroviral treatment among adolescents living with HIV (ALH) is increasing. Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is relevant for monitoring the impact of the disease on both well-being and treatment outcomes. However, adequate screening tools to assess HRQOL in low-resource settings are scarce. This study aims to fill this research gap, by 1) assessing the psychometric properties and reliability of an Eastern African English version of a European HRQOL scale for adolescents (KIDSCREEN) and 2) determining which version of the KIDSCREEN (52-, 27- and 10-item version) is most suitable for low-resource settings. Methods The KIDSCREEN was translated into Eastern African English, Luganda (Uganda) and Dholuo (Kenya) according to standard procedures. The reconciled version was administered in 2011 to ALH aged 13–17 in Kenya (n = 283) and Uganda (n = 299). All three KIDSCREEN versions were fitted to the data with confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). After comparison, the most suitable version was adapted based on the CFA outcomes utilizing the results of previous formative research. In order to develop a general HRQOL factor, a second-order measurement model was fitted to the data. Results The CFA results showed that without adjustments, the KIDSCREEN cannot be used for measuring the HRQOL of HIV-positive adolescents. After comparison, the most suitable version for low-resource settings - the 27-item version - was adapted further. The introduction of a negative wording factor was required for the Dholuo model. The Dholuo (CFI: 0.93; RMSEA: 0.039) and the Luganda model (CFI: 0.90; RMSEA: 0.052) showed a good fit. All cronbach’s alphas of the factors were 0.70 or above. The alpha value of the Dholuo and Lugandan HRQOL second-order factor was respectively 0.84 and 0.87. Conclusions The study showed that the adapted KIDSCREEN-27 is an adequate tool for measuring HRQOL in low-resource settings with high HIV prevalence. PMID:22815776

Issues in Semantic Memory: A Response to Glass and Holyoak. Technical Report No. 101.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shoben, Edward J.; And Others

Glass and Holyoak (1975) have raised two issues related to the distinction between set-theoretic and network theories of semantic memory, contending that: (a) their version of a network theory, the Marker Search model, is conceptually and empirically superior to the Feature Comparison model version of a set-theoretic theory; and (b) the contrast…

The Short Personality Inventory for DSM-5 and Its Conjoined Structure with the Common Five-Factor Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kajonius, Petri J.

2017-01-01

Research is currently testing how the new maladaptive personality inventory for DSM (PID-5) and the well-established common Five-Factor Model (FFM) together can serve as an empirical and theoretical foundation for clinical psychology. The present study investigated the official short version of the PID-5 together with a common short version of…

Integrated Farm System Model Version 4.2 and Dairy Gas Emissions Model Version 3.2 Software development and distribution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Emissions of ammonia (NH3) and nitrous oxide (N2O) vary among animal facilities due to differences in housing structure and associated manure management. Bedded pack barns are structures with a roof and sidewalls resulting in a lower air velocity and evaporation potential inside the structure. But s...

Factor Structure of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version in German Female and Male Detainees and Community Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sevecke, Kathrin; Pukrop, Ralf; Kosson, David S.; Krischer, Maya K.

2009-01-01

Substantial evidence exists for 3- and 4-factor models of psychopathy underlying patterns of covariation among the items of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) in diverse adult samples. Although initial studies conducted with the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV) indicated reasonable fit for these models in incarcerated male…

Microscopic approach based on a multiscale algebraic version of the resonating group model for radiative capture reactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solovyev, Alexander S.; Igashov, Sergey Yu.

2017-12-01

A microscopic approach to description of radiative capture reactions based on a multiscale algebraic version of the resonating group model is developed. The main idea of the approach is to expand wave functions of discrete spectrum and continuum for a nuclear system over different bases of the algebraic version of the resonating group model. These bases differ from each other by values of oscillator radius playing a role of scale parameter. This allows us in a unified way to calculate total and partial cross sections (astrophysical S factors) as well as branching ratio for the radiative capture reaction, to describe phase shifts for the colliding nuclei in the initial channel of the reaction, and at the same time to reproduce breakup thresholds of the final nucleus. The approach is applied to the theoretical study of the mirror 3H(α ,γ )7Li and 3He(α ,γ )7Be reactions, which are of great interest to nuclear astrophysics. The calculated results are compared with existing experimental data and with our previous calculations in the framework of the single-scale algebraic version of the resonating group model.

Additions to Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (MARS-GRAM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; James, Bonnie

1992-01-01

Three major additions or modifications were made to the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM): (1) in addition to the interactive version, a new batch version is available, which uses NAMELIST input, and is completely modular, so that the main driver program can easily be replaced by any calling program, such as a trajectory simulation program; (2) both the interactive and batch versions now have an option for treating local-scale dust storm effects, rather than just the global-scale dust storms in the original Mars-GRAM; and (3) the Zurek wave perturbation model was added, to simulate the effects of tidal perturbations, in addition to the random (mountain wave) perturbation model of the original Mars-GRAM. A minor modification was also made which allows heights to go 'below' local terrain height and return 'realistic' pressure, density, and temperature, and not the surface values, as returned by the original Mars-GRAM. This feature will allow simulations of Mars rover paths which might go into local 'valley' areas which lie below the average height of the present, rather coarse-resolution, terrain height data used by Mars-GRAM. Sample input and output of both the interactive and batch versions of Mars-GRAM are presented.

Additions to Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.

1991-01-01

Three major additions or modifications were made to the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM): (1) in addition to the interactive version, a new batch version is available, which uses NAMELIST input, and is completely modular, so that the main driver program can easily be replaced by any calling program, such as a trajectory simulation program; (2) both the interactive and batch versions now have an option for treating local-scale dust storm effects, rather than just the global-scale dust storms in the original Mars-GRAM; and (3) the Zurek wave perturbation model was added, to simulate the effects of tidal perturbations, in addition to the random (mountain wave) perturbation model of the original Mars-GRAM. A minor modification has also been made which allows heights to go below local terrain height and return realistic pressure, density, and temperature (not the surface values) as returned by the original Mars-GRAM. This feature will allow simulations of Mars rover paths which might go into local valley areas which lie below the average height of the present, rather coarse-resolution, terrain height data used by Mars-GRAM. Sample input and output of both the interactive and batch version of Mars-GRAM are presented.

The Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML): Language Specification for Level 3 Version 2 Core.

PubMed

Hucka, Michael; Bergmann, Frank T; Dräger, Andreas; Hoops, Stefan; Keating, Sarah M; Le Novère, Nicolas; Myers, Chris J; Olivier, Brett G; Sahle, Sven; Schaff, James C; Smith, Lucian P; Waltemath, Dagmar; Wilkinson, Darren J

2018-03-09

Computational models can help researchers to interpret data, understand biological functions, and make quantitative predictions. The Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) is a file format for representing computational models in a declarative form that different software systems can exchange. SBML is oriented towards describing biological processes of the sort common in research on a number of topics, including metabolic pathways, cell signaling pathways, and many others. By supporting SBML as an input/output format, different tools can all operate on an identical representation of a model, removing opportunities for translation errors and assuring a common starting point for analyses and simulations. This document provides the specification for Version 2 of SBML Level 3 Core. The specification defines the data structures prescribed by SBML, their encoding in XML (the eXtensible Markup Language), validation rules that determine the validity of an SBML document, and examples of models in SBML form. The design of Version 2 differs from Version 1 principally in allowing new MathML constructs, making more child elements optional, and adding identifiers to all SBML elements instead of only selected elements. Other materials and software are available from the SBML project website at http://sbml.org/.

The Fate of Amazonian Ecosystems over the Coming Century Arising from Changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2 and Land-use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moorcroft, P. R.; Zhang, K.; Castanho, A. D. D. A.; Galbraith, D.; Moghim, S.; Levine, N. M.; Bras, R. L.; Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Malhi, Y.; Longo, M.; Knox, R. G.; McKnight, S. L.; Wang, J.

2014-12-01

There is considerable interest and uncertainty regarding the expected fate of the Amazon over the coming century in face of the combined impacts of climate change, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and on-going land transformation in the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under projected climate, CO2 and land-use change in the 21st century using three state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) driven by three representative, bias-corrected GCM climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under the SRES A2 scenario, coupled with two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change depend strongly on the direction and severity of projected changes in precipitation regimes within the region: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%; however, the models predict that CO2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and as a result sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and changes in fire frequency are predicted cause additional aboveground live biomass loss and changes in forest extent. The relative impact of land-use and fire dynamics versus the impacts of climate and CO2 on the Amazon varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenarios used and on the terrestrial biosphere model, highlighting the importance of improved understanding of all four factors -- future climate, CO2 fertilization effects, fire and land-use -- to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.

Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate-wildfire interactions.

PubMed

Liang, Shuang; Hurteau, Matthew D; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

Climate influences forests directly and indirectly through disturbance. The interaction of climate change and increasing area burned has the potential to alter forest composition and community assembly. However, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to environmental change and the scale of change in overstory species cover. In this study, we sought to quantify how projected changes in climate and large wildfire size would alter forest communities and carbon (C) dynamics, irrespective of competition from nontree species and potential changes in other fire regimes, across the Sierra Nevada, USA. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate forest response to climate-wildfire interactions under historical (baseline) climate and climate projections from three climate models (GFDL, CCSM3, and CNRM) forced by a medium-high emission scenario (A2) in combination with corresponding climate-specific large wildfire projections. By late century, we found modest changes in the spatial distribution of dominant species by biomass relative to baseline, but extensive changes in recruitment distribution. Although forest recruitment declined across much of the Sierra, we found that projected climate and wildfire favored the recruitment of more drought-tolerant species over less drought-tolerant species relative to baseline, and this change was greatest at mid-elevations. We also found that projected climate and wildfire decreased tree species richness across a large proportion of the study area and transitioned more area to a C source, which reduced landscape-level C sequestration potential. Our study, although a conservative estimate, suggests that by late century, forest community distributions may not change as intact units as predicted by biome-based modeling, but are likely to trend toward simplified community composition as communities gradually disaggregate and the least tolerant species are no longer able to establish. The potential exists for substantial community composition change and forest simplification beyond this century. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Decadal Climate Information Needs of Stakeholders for Decision Support in Water and Agriculture Production Sectors: A Case Study in the Missouri River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, V. M.; Knutson, C.; Rosenberg, N.

2012-12-01

Many decadal climate prediction efforts have been initiated under the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. There is considerable ongoing discussion about model deficiencies, initialization techniques, and data requirements, but not much attention is being given to decadal climate information (DCI) needs of stakeholders for decision support. We report the results of exploratory activities undertaken to assess DCI needs in water resources and agriculture sectors, using the Missouri River Basin (the Basin) as a case study. This assessment was achieved through discussions with 120 representative stakeholders. Stakeholders' awareness of decadal dry and wet spells and their societal impacts in the Basin is established; and stakeholders' DCI needs and potential barriers to their use of DCI are enumerated. We find that impacts, including economic impacts, of DCV on water and agricultural production in the Basin are distinctly identifiable and characterizable. Stakeholders have clear notions about their needs for DCI and have offered specific suggestions as to how these might be met. But, while stakeholders are eager to have climate information, including decadal climate outlooks (DCOs), there are many barriers to the use of such information. The first and foremost is that the credibility of DCOs is yet to be established. Secondly, the nature of institutional rules and regulations, laws, and legal precedents that pose obstacles to the use of DCOs must be better understood and means to modify these, where possible, must be sought. For the benefit of climate scientists, these and other stakeholder needs will also be articulated in this talk. We are engaged in a project to assess simulation and hindcast skills of DCV phenomena and their associations with hydro-meteorological variability in the Basin in the HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, NCAR CCSM4, and MIROC5 global coupled models participating in the WCRP's CMIP5 project. Results from this project will also be described and compared with stakeholder information needs.

The Swedish version of the Acceptance of Chronic Health Conditions Scale for people with multiple sclerosis: Translation, cultural adaptation and psychometric properties.

PubMed

Forslin, Mia; Kottorp, Anders; Kierkegaard, Marie; Johansson, Sverker

2016-11-11

To translate and culturally adapt the Acceptance of Chronic Health Conditions (ACHC) Scale for people with multiple sclerosis into Swedish, and to analyse the psychometric properties of the Swedish version. Ten people with multiple sclerosis participated in translation and cultural adaptation of the ACHC Scale; 148 people with multiple sclerosis were included in evaluation of the psychometric properties of the scale. Translation and cultural adaptation were carried out through translation and back-translation, by expert committee evaluation and pre-test with cognitive interviews in people with multiple sclerosis. The psychometric properties of the Swedish version were evaluated using Rasch analysis. The Swedish version of the ACHC Scale was an acceptable equivalent to the original version. Seven of the original 10 items fitted the Rasch model and demonstrated ability to separate between groups. A 5-item version, including 2 items and 3 super-items, demonstrated better psychometric properties, but lower ability to separate between groups. The Swedish version of the ACHC Scale with the original 10 items did not fit the Rasch model. Two solutions, either with 7 items (ACHC-7) or with 2 items and 3 super-items (ACHC-5), demonstrated acceptable psychometric properties. Use of the ACHC-5 Scale with super-items is recommended, since this solution adjusts for local dependency among items.

Detection of faults and software reliability analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, J. C.

1986-01-01

Multiversion or N-version programming was proposed as a method of providing fault tolerance in software. The approach requires the separate, independent preparation of multiple versions of a piece of software for some application. Specific topics addressed are: failure probabilities in N-version systems, consistent comparison in N-version systems, descriptions of the faults found in the Knight and Leveson experiment, analytic models of comparison testing, characteristics of the input regions that trigger faults, fault tolerance through data diversity, and the relationship between failures caused by automatically seeded faults.

Temperature and Humidity Profiles in the TqJoint Data Group of AIRS Version 6 Product for the Climate Model Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ding, Feng; Fang, Fan; Hearty, Thomas J.; Theobald, Michael; Vollmer, Bruce; Lynnes, Christopher

2014-01-01

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission is entering its 13th year of global observations of the atmospheric state, including temperature and humidity profiles, outgoing long-wave radiation, cloud properties, and trace gases. Thus AIRS data have been widely used, among other things, for short-term climate research and observational component for model evaluation. One instance is the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which uses AIRS version 5 data in the climate model evaluation. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is the home of processing, archiving, and distribution services for data from the AIRS mission. The GES DISC, in collaboration with the AIRS Project, released data from the version 6 algorithm in early 2013. The new algorithm represents a significant improvement over previous versions in terms of greater stability, yield, and quality of products. The ongoing Earth System Grid for next generation climate model research project, a collaborative effort of GES DISC and NASA JPL, will bring temperature and humidity profiles from AIRS version 6. The AIRS version 6 product adds a new "TqJoint" data group, which contains data for a common set of observations across water vapor and temperature at all atmospheric levels and is suitable for climate process studies. How different may the monthly temperature and humidity profiles in "TqJoint" group be from the "Standard" group where temperature and water vapor are not always valid at the same time? This study aims to answer the question by comprehensively comparing the temperature and humidity profiles from the "TqJoint" group and the "Standard" group. The comparison includes mean differences at different levels globally and over land and ocean. We are also working on examining the sampling differences between the "TqJoint" and "Standard" group using MERRA data.

The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM, version 2: sensitivity to improvements in process representations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; O'Donnell, D.; Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Kinne, S.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Croft, B.; Quaas, J.; Wan, H.; Rast, S.; Feichter, J.

2012-03-01

This paper introduces and evaluates the second version of the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM. Major changes have been brought into the model, including new parameterizations for aerosol nucleation and water uptake, an explicit treatment of secondary organic aerosols, modified emission calculations for sea salt and mineral dust, the coupling of aerosol microphysics to a two-moment stratiform cloud microphysics scheme, and alternative wet scavenging parameterizations. These revisions extend the model's capability to represent details of the aerosol lifecycle and its interaction with climate. Sensitivity experiments are carried out to analyse the effects of these improvements in the process representation on the simulated aerosol properties and global distribution. The new parameterizations that have largest impact on the global mean aerosol optical depth and radiative effects turn out to be the water uptake scheme and cloud microphysics. The former leads to a significant decrease of aerosol water contents in the lower troposphere, and consequently smaller optical depth; the latter results in higher aerosol loading and longer lifetime due to weaker in-cloud scavenging. The combined effects of the new/updated parameterizations are demonstrated by comparing the new model results with those from the earlier version, and against observations. Model simulations are evaluated in terms of aerosol number concentrations against measurements collected from twenty field campaigns as well as from fixed measurement sites, and in terms of optical properties against the AERONET measurements. Results indicate a general improvement with respect to the earlier version. The aerosol size distribution and spatial-temporal variance simulated by HAM2 are in better agreement with the observations. Biases in the earlier model version in aerosol optical depth and in the Ångström parameter have been reduced. The paper also points out the remaining model deficiencies that need to be addressed in the future.

HIPPO Unit Commitment Version 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2017-01-17

Developed for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, Inc. (MISO), HIPPO-Unit Commitment Version 1 is for solving security constrained unit commitment problem. The model was developed to solve MISO's cases. This version of codes includes I/O module to read in MISO's csv files, modules to create a state-based mixed integer programming formulation for solving MIP, and modules to test basic procedures to solve MIP via HPC.

A Method and a Model for Describing Competence and Adjustment: A Preschool Version of the Classroom Behavior Inventory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schaefer, Earl S.; Edgerton, Marianna D.

A preschool version of the Classroom Behavior Inventory which provides a method for collecting valid data on a child's classroom behavior from day care and preschool teachers, was developed to complement the earlier form which was developed and validated for elementary school populations. The new version was tested with a pilot group of twenty-two…

Supporting ontology adaptation and versioning based on a graph of relevance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sassi, Najla; Jaziri, Wassim; Alharbi, Saad

2016-11-01

Ontologies recently have become a topic of interest in computer science since they are seen as a semantic support to explicit and enrich data-models as well as to ensure interoperability of data. Moreover, supporting ontology adaptation becomes essential and extremely important, mainly when using ontologies in changing environments. An important issue when dealing with ontology adaptation is the management of several versions. Ontology versioning is a complex and multifaceted problem as it should take into account change management, versions storage and access, consistency issues, etc. The purpose of this paper is to propose an approach and tool for ontology adaptation and versioning. A series of techniques are proposed to 'safely' evolve a given ontology and produce a new consistent version. The ontology versions are ordered in a graph according to their relevance. The relevance is computed based on four criteria: conceptualisation, usage frequency, abstraction and completeness. The techniques to carry out the versioning process are implemented in the Consistology tool, which has been developed to assist users in expressing adaptation requirements and managing ontology versions.

Negotiating Multicollinearity with Spike-and-Slab Priors.

PubMed

Ročková, Veronika; George, Edward I

2014-08-01

In multiple regression under the normal linear model, the presence of multicollinearity is well known to lead to unreliable and unstable maximum likelihood estimates. This can be particularly troublesome for the problem of variable selection where it becomes more difficult to distinguish between subset models. Here we show how adding a spike-and-slab prior mitigates this difficulty by filtering the likelihood surface into a posterior distribution that allocates the relevant likelihood information to each of the subset model modes. For identification of promising high posterior models in this setting, we consider three EM algorithms, the fast closed form EMVS version of Rockova and George (2014) and two new versions designed for variants of the spike-and-slab formulation. For a multimodal posterior under multicollinearity, we compare the regions of convergence of these three algorithms. Deterministic annealing versions of the EMVS algorithm are seen to substantially mitigate this multimodality. A single simple running example is used for illustration throughout.

Extensive middle atmosphere (20-120 KM) modification in the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-90)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Johnson, Dale

1990-01-01

The Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) is currently available in the 'GRAM-88' version (Justus, et al., 1986; 1988), which includes relatively minor upgrades and changes from the 'MOD-3' version (Justus, et al., 1980). Currently a project is underway to use large amounts of data, mostly collected under the Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) to produce a major upgrade of the program planned for release as the GRAM-90 version. The new data and program revisions will particularly affect the 25-90 km height range. Sources of data and preliminary results are described here in the form of cross-sectional plots.

HANSF 1.3 Users Manual FAI/98-40-R2 Hanford Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Safety Analysis Model [SEC 1 and 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DUNCAN, D.R.

The HANSF analysis tool is an integrated model considering phenomena inside a multi-canister overpack (MCO) spent nuclear fuel container such as fuel oxidation, convective and radiative heat transfer, and the potential for fission product release. This manual reflects the HANSF version 1.3.2, a revised version of 1.3.1. HANSF 1.3.2 was written to correct minor errors and to allow modeling of condensate flow on the MCO inner surface. HANSF 1.3.2 is intended for use on personal computers such as IBM-compatible machines with Intel processors running under Lahey TI or digital Visual FORTRAN, Version 6.0, but this does not preclude operation inmore » other environments.« less

Surrogate oracles, generalized dependency and simpler models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Larry

1990-01-01

Software reliability models require the sequence of interfailure times from the debugging process as input. It was previously illustrated that using data from replicated debugging could greatly improve reliability predictions. However, inexpensive replication of the debugging process requires the existence of a cheap, fast error detector. Laboratory experiments can be designed around a gold version which is used as an oracle or around an n-version error detector. Unfortunately, software developers can not be expected to have an oracle or to bear the expense of n-versions. A generic technique is being investigated for approximating replicated data by using the partially debugged software as a difference detector. It is believed that the failure rate of each fault has significant dependence on the presence or absence of other faults. Thus, in order to discuss a failure rate for a known fault, the presence or absence of each of the other known faults needs to be specified. Also, in simpler models which use shorter input sequences without sacrificing accuracy are of interest. In fact, a possible gain in performance is conjectured. To investigate these propositions, NASA computers running LIC (RTI) versions are used to generate data. This data will be used to label the debugging graph associated with each version. These labeled graphs will be used to test the utility of a surrogate oracle, to analyze the dependent nature of fault failure rates and to explore the feasibility of reliability models which use the data of only the most recent failures.

Climate change likely to favor shift toward warmer climate states of the Pliocene and Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, K. D.; Williams, J. W.

2017-12-01

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the climate system is moving toward a state without precedent in the historical record. Various past climate states have been proposed as potential analogues or model systems for the coming decades, including the early to middle Holocene, the last interglacial, the middle Pliocene, and the early Eocene. However, until now, such comparisons have been qualitative. To compare these time periods to the projected climate states for the 21st and 22nd centuries, we conduct a climate similarity analysis using the standardized Euclidean distance metric (SED) and seasonal means of surface air temperature and precipitation. We make this future-to-past comparison using 30-year mean climatologies, for every decade between 2020 and 2280 AD (27 total comparisons). The list of past earth system states includes the historical period (1940-1970 AD), a pre-industrial control (ca. 1850), the middle Holocene (ca. 6 ka), the last glacial maximum (ca. 21 ka), the last interglacial (ca. 125 ka), the middle Pliocene (ca. 3 Ma), and the early Eocene (ca. 50-55 Ma). To reduce uncertainties resulting from choice of earth system model, analyses are based on simulations from three earth system models (HadCM, CCSM, NASA/GISS Model-E), using in part experiments from PMIP2, PMIP3/CMIP5, EoMIP, and PlioMIP. Results are presented for two representative concentration pathways (RCP's 4.5, 8.5). By 2050 AD, the most common past climate analogue is sourced from the Pliocene for RCP 8.5, while by 2190 AD, the Eocene becomes the source of the most common past climate analogue. For RCP 4.5, in which radiative forcings stabilize this century, the Pliocene becomes the most important past climate analogue by 2100 AD. Low latitude climates are the first to most closely resemble these past earth warm periods. The mid-latitudes then follow this pattern by the end of the 22nd century. Although no past state of the earth system is a perfect analogue for the Anthropocene, these analyses clarify the similarities between the expected climates of the future and the geological climates of the past.

Water Isotope Proxy-Proxy and Proxy-Model Convergence for Late Pleistocene East Asian Monsoon Rainfall Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemens, S. C.; Holbourn, A.; Kubota, Y.; Lee, K. E.; Liu, Z.; Chen, G.

2017-12-01

Confidence in reconstruction of East Asian paleomonsoon rainfall using precipitation isotope proxies is a matter of considerable debate, largely due to the lack of correlation between precipitation amount and isotopic composition in the present climate. We present four new, very highly resolved records spanning the past 300,000 years ( 200 year sample spacing) from IODP Site U1429 in the East China Sea. We demonstrate that all the orbital- and millennial-scale variance in the onshore Yangtze River Valley speleothem δ18O record1 is also embedded in the offshore Site U1429 seawater δ18O record (derived from the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber and sea surface temperature reconstructions). Signal replication in these two independent terrestrial and marine archives, both controlled by the same monsoon system, uniquely identifies δ18O of precipitation as the primary driver of the precession-band variance in both records. This proxy-proxy convergence also eliminates a wide array of other drivers that have been called upon as potential contaminants to the precipitation δ18O signal recorded by these proxies. We compare East Asian precipitation isotope proxy records to precipitation amount from a CCSM3 transient climate model simulation of the past 300,000 years using realistic insolation, ice volume, greenhouse gasses, and sea level boundary conditions. This model-proxy comparison suggests that both Yangtze River Valley precipitation isotope proxies (seawater and speleothem δ18O) track changes in summer-monsoon rainfall amount at orbital time scales, as do precipitation isotope records from the Pearl River Valley2 (leaf wax δ2H) and Borneo3 (speleothem δ18O). Notably, these proxy records all have significantly different spectral structure indicating strongly regional rainfall patterns that are also consistent with model results. Transient, isotope-enabled model simulations will be necessary to more thoroughly evaluate these promising results, and to evaluate potentially distinct regional mechanisms linking rainfall amount to precipitation isotopes at orbital and millennial time scales in other monsoon regions. 1 Cheng et al., 10.1038/nature18591 2 Thomas et al., 10.1130/G36289.1 3 Carolin et al., 10.1016/j.epsl.2016.01.028

The Last Millennium Reanalysis: Improvements to proxies and proxy modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tardif, R.; Hakim, G. J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Noone, D.; Anderson, D. M.

2017-12-01

The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) employs a paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) approach to produce climate field reconstructions (CFRs). Here, we focus on two key factors in PDA generated CFRs: the set of assimilated proxy records and forward models (FMs) used to estimate proxies from climate model output. In the initial configuration of the LMR [Hakim et al., 2016], the proxy dataset of [PAGES2k Consortium, 2013] was used, along with univariate linear FMs calibrated against annually-averaged 20th century temperature datasets. In an updated configuration, proxy records from the recent dataset [PAGES2k Consortium, 2017] are used, while a hierarchy of statistical FMs are tested: (1) univariate calibrated on annual temperature as in the initial configuration, (2) univariate against temperature as in (1) but calibration performed using expert-derived seasonality for individual proxy records, (3) as in (2) but expert proxy seasonality replaced by seasonal averaging determined objectively as part of the calibration process, (4) linear objective seasonal FMs as in (3) but objectively selecting relationships calibrated either on temperature or precipitation, and (5) bivariate linear models calibrated on temperature and precipitation with objectively-derived seasonality. (4) and (5) specifically aim at better representing the physical drivers of tree ring width proxies. Reconstructions generated using the CCSM4 Last Millennium simulation as an uninformed prior are evaluated against various 20th century data products. Results show the benefits of using the new proxy collection, particularly on the detrended global mean temperature and spatial patterns. The positive impact of using proper seasonality and temperature/moisture sensitivities for tree ring width records is also notable. This updated configuration will be used for the first generation of LMR-generated CFRs to be publicly released. These also provide a benchmark for future efforts aimed at evaluating the impact of additional proxy records and/or more sophisticated physically-based forward models. References: Hakim, G. J., and co-authors (2016), J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., doi:10.1002/2016JD024751 PAGES2K Consortium (2013), Nat. Geosci., doi:10.1038/ngeo1797 PAGES2k Consortium (2017), Sci. Data. doi:10.1038/sdata.2017.88

Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

2011-04-01

In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in facts typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the model for nearby catchments discussed. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged high altitude areas, and to project forward their hydrological behavior pending climate change.

Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

2011-07-01

In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the model for nearby catchments discussed. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged high altitude areas, and to project forward their hydrological behavior pending climate change.

LPJ-GUESS Simulated North America Vegetation for 21-0 ka Using the TraCE-21ka Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2016-12-01

Transient climate simulations that span multiple millennia (e.g., TraCE-21ka) have become more common as computing power has increased, allowing climate models to complete long simulations in relatively short periods of time (i.e., months). These climate simulations provide information on the potential rate, variability, and spatial expression of past climate changes. They also can be used as input data for other environmental models to simulate transient changes for different components of paleoenvironmental systems, such as vegetation. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide information on a range of ecological processes, describe the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in species distributions, and identify the potential locations of past species refugia. Paleovegetation simulations also can be used to fill in spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation data (e.g., pollen records from lake sediments) and to test hypotheses of past vegetation change. We used the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation for 21-0 ka from CCSM3, a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The TraCE-21ka simulated temperature, precipitation, and cloud data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of North America. These regridded climate data, along with soil data and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, were used as input to LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate North America vegetation from 21-0 ka. LPJ-GUESS simulates many of the processes controlling the distribution of vegetation (e.g., competition), although some important processes (e.g., dispersal) are not simulated. We evaluate the LPJ-GUESS-simulated vegetation (in the form of plant functional types and biomes) for key time periods and compare the simulated vegetation with observed paleovegetation data, such as data archived in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database. In general, vegetation simulated by LPJ-GUESS reproduces the major North America vegetation patterns (e.g., forest, grassland) with regional areas of disagreement between simulated and observed vegetation. We describe the regions and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of both the simulated climate and simulated vegetation data.

The NASA/MSFC global reference atmospheric model: 1990 version (GRAM-90). Part 2: Program/data listings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Alyea, F. N.; Cunnold, D. M.; Jeffries, W. R., III; Johnson, D. L.

1991-01-01

A new (1990) version of the NASA/MSFC Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-90) was completed and the program and key data base listing are presented. GRAM-90 incorporate extensive new data, mostly collected under the Middle Atmosphere Program, to produce a completely revised middle atmosphere model (20 to 120 km). At altitudes greater than 120 km, GRAM-90 uses the NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere model. Complete listings of all program and major data bases are presented. Also, a test case is included.

Historical and Possible Future Changes in Permafrost and Active Layer Thickness in Alaska: Implications to Landscape Changes and Permafrost Carbon Pool.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchenko, S. S.; Helene, G.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Breen, A. L.; McGuire, D.; Rupp, S. T.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Walsh, J. E.

2017-12-01

The Soil Temperature and Active Layer Thickness (ALT) Gridded Data was developed to quantify the nature and rate of permafrost degradation and its impact on ecosystems, infrastructure, CO2 and CH4 fluxes and net C storage following permafrost thaw across Alaska. To develop this database, we used the process-based permafrost dynamics model GIPL2 developed in the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, UAF and which is the permafrost module of the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada. The climate forcing data for simulations were developed by the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP, http://www.snap.uaf.edu/). These data are based on the historical CRU3.1 data set for the retrospective analysis period (1901-2009) and the five model averaged data were derived from the five CMIP5/AR5 IPCC Global Circulation Models that performed the best in Alaska and other northern regions: NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3. A composite of all five-model outputs for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used in these particular permafrost dynamics simulations. Data sets were downscaled to a 771 m resolution, using the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climatology. Additional input data (snow characteristics, soil thermal properties, soil water content, organic matter accumulation or its loss due to fire, etc.) came from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) and the ALFRESCO (ALaska FRame-based EcoSystem COde) model simulations. We estimated the dynamics of permafrost temperature, active layer thickness, area occupied by permafrost, and volume of seasonally thawed soils within the 4.75 upper meters (original TEM soil column) across the Alaska domain. Simulations of future changes in permafrost indicate that, by the end of the 21st century, late-Holocene permafrost in Alaska will be actively thawing at all locations and that some Late Pleistocene carbon-rich peatlands underlain by permafrost will start to thaw at some locations. The modeling results also indicate how different types of ecosystems affect the thermal state of permafrost and its stability. The release of carbon and the net effect of this thawing depends on the balance between increased productivity and respiration, which depend, in part, on soil moisture dynamics.

The Tropical Subseasonal Variability Simulated in the NASA GISS General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Daehyun; Sobel, Adam H.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Chen, Yonghua; Camargo, Suzana J.; Yao, Mao-Sung; Kelley, Maxwell; Nazarenko, Larissa

2012-01-01

The tropical subseasonal variability simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model, Model E2, is examined. Several versions of Model E2 were developed with changes to the convective parameterization in order to improve the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). When the convective scheme is modified to have a greater fractional entrainment rate, Model E2 is able to simulate MJO-like disturbances with proper spatial and temporal scales. Increasing the rate of rain reevaporation has additional positive impacts on the simulated MJO. The improvement in MJO simulation comes at the cost of increased biases in the mean state, consistent in structure and amplitude with those found in other GCMs when tuned to have a stronger MJO. By reinitializing a relatively poor-MJO version with restart files from a relatively better-MJO version, a series of 30-day integrations is constructed to examine the impacts of the parameterization changes on the organization of tropical convection. The poor-MJO version with smaller entrainment rate has a tendency to allow convection to be activated over a broader area and to reduce the contrast between dry and wet regimes so that tropical convection becomes less organized. Besides the MJO, the number of tropical-cyclone-like vortices simulated by the model is also affected by changes in the convection scheme. The model simulates a smaller number of such storms globally with a larger entrainment rate, while the number increases significantly with a greater rain reevaporation rate.

Mental models and other misconceptions in children's understanding of the earth.

PubMed

Panagiotaki, Georgia; Nobes, Gavin; Potton, Anita

2009-09-01

This study investigated the claim (e.g., Vosniadou & Brewer's, 1992) that children have naive "mental models" of the earth and believe, for example, that the earth is flat or hollow. It tested the proposal that children appear to have these misconceptions because they find the researchers' tasks and questions to be confusing and ambiguous. Participants were 6- and 7-year-olds (N=127) who were given either the mental model theorists' original drawing task or a new version in which the same instructions and questions were rephrased to minimize ambiguity and, thus, possible misinterpretation. In response to the new version, children gave substantially more indication of having scientific understanding and less of having naive mental models, suggesting that the misconceptions reported by the mental model theorists are largely methodological artifacts. There were also differences between the responses to the original version and those reported by Vosniadou and Brewer, indicating that other factors, such as cohort and cultural effects, are also likely to help explain the discrepant findings of previous research.

Multigroup confirmatory factor analysis and structural invariance with age of the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF)--French version.

PubMed

Fournet, Nathalie; Roulin, Jean-Luc; Monnier, Catherine; Atzeni, Thierry; Cosnefroy, Olivier; Le Gall, Didier; Roy, Arnaud

2015-01-01

The parent and teacher forms of the French version of the Behavioral Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF) were used to evaluate executive function in everyday life in a large sample of healthy children (N = 951) aged between 5 and 18. Several psychometric methods were applied, with a view to providing clinicians with tools for score interpretation. The parent and teacher forms of the BRIEF were acceptably reliable. Demographic variables (such as age and gender) were found to influence the BRIEF scores. Confirmatory factor analysis was then used to test five competing models of the BRIEF's latent structure. Two of these models (a three-factor model and a two-factor model, both based on a nine-scale structure) had a good fit. However, structural invariance with age was only obtained with the two-factor model. The French version of the BRIEF provides a useful measure of everyday executive function and can be recommended for use in clinical research and practice.

The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS){reg_sign}: Atmospheric pathway formulations. Revision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Droppo, J.G.; Buck, J.W.

1996-03-01

The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) is an integrated software implementation of physics-based fate and transport models for health and environmental risk assessments of both radioactive and hazardous pollutants. This atmospheric component report is one of a series of formulation reports that document the MEPAS mathematical models. MEPAS is a multimedia model; pollutant transport is modeled within, through, and between multiple media (air, soil, groundwater, and surface water). The estimated concentrations in the various media are used to compute exposures and impacts to the environment, to maximum individuals, and to populations. The MEPAS atmospheric component for the air mediamore » documented in this report includes models for emission from a source to the air, initial plume rise and dispersion, airborne pollutant transport and dispersion, and deposition to soils and crops. The material in this report is documentation for MEPAS Versions 3.0 and 3.1 and the MEPAS version used in the Remedial Action Assessment System (RAAS) Version 1.0.« less

Adaptive partially hidden Markov models with application to bilevel image coding.

PubMed

Forchhammer, S; Rasmussen, T S

1999-01-01

Partially hidden Markov models (PHMMs) have previously been introduced. The transition and emission/output probabilities from hidden states, as known from the HMMs, are conditioned on the past. This way, the HMM may be applied to images introducing the dependencies of the second dimension by conditioning. In this paper, the PHMM is extended to multiple sequences with a multiple token version and adaptive versions of PHMM coding are presented. The different versions of the PHMM are applied to lossless bilevel image coding. To reduce and optimize the model cost and size, the contexts are organized in trees and effective quantization of the parameters is introduced. The new coding methods achieve results that are better than the JBIG standard on selected test images, although at the cost of increased complexity. By the minimum description length principle, the methods presented for optimizing the code length may apply as guidance for training (P)HMMs for, e.g., segmentation or recognition purposes. Thereby, the PHMM models provide a new approach to image modeling.

Measuring engagement at work: validation of the Chinese version of the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale.

PubMed

Fong, Ted Chun-tat; Ng, Siu-man

2012-09-01

Work engagement is a positive work-related state of fulfillment characterized by vigor, dedication, and absorption. Previous studies have operationalized the construct through development of the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale. Apart from the original three-factor 17-item version of the instrument (UWES-17), there exists a nine-item shortened revised version (UWES-9). The current study explored the psychometric properties of the Chinese version of the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale in terms of factorial validity, scale reliability, descriptive statistics, and construct validity. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in 2009 among 992 workers from over 30 elderly service units in Hong Kong. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed a better fit for the three-factor model of the UWES-9 than the UWES-17 and the one-factor model of the UWES-9. The three factors showed acceptable internal consistency and strong correlations with factors in the original versions. Engagement was negatively associated with perceived stress and burnout while positively with age and holistic care climate. The UWES-9 demonstrates adequate psychometric properties, supporting its use in future research in the Chinese context.

Conceptual modeling of coincident failures in multiversion software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Littlewood, Bev; Miller, Douglas R.

1989-01-01

Recent work by Eckhardt and Lee (1985) shows that independently developed program versions fail dependently (specifically, simultaneous failure of several is greater than would be the case under true independence). The present authors show there is a precise duality between input choice and program choice in this model and consider a generalization in which different versions can be developed using diverse methodologies. The use of diverse methodologies is shown to decrease the probability of the simultaneous failure of several versions. Indeed, it is theoretically possible to obtain versions which exhibit better than independent failure behavior. The authors try to formalize the notion of methodological diversity by considering the sequence of decision outcomes that constitute a methodology. They show that diversity of decision implies likely diversity of behavior for the different verions developed under such forced diversity. For certain one-out-of-n systems the authors obtain an optimal method for allocating diversity between versions. For two-out-of-three systems there seem to be no simple optimality results which do not depend on constraints which cannot be verified in practice.

Psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the UPPS-P Impulsive Behavior Scale: A Rasch rating scale analysis and confirmatory factor analysis.

PubMed

Pilatti, Angelina; Lozano, Oscar M; Cyders, Melissa A

2015-12-01

The present study was aimed at determining the psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the UPPS-P Impulsive Behavior Scale in a sample of college students. Participants were 318 college students (36.2% men; mean age = 20.9 years, SD = 6.4 years). The psychometric properties of this Spanish version were analyzed using the Rasch model, and the factor structure was examined using confirmatory factor analysis. The verification of the global fit of the data showed adequate indexes for persons and items. The reliability estimates were high for both items and persons. Differential item functioning across gender was found for 23 items, which likely reflects known differences in impulsivity levels between men and women. The factor structure of the Spanish version of the UPPS-P replicates previous work with the original UPPS-P Scale. Overall, results suggest that test scores from the Spanish version of the UPPS-P show adequate psychometric properties to accurately assess the multidimensional model of impulsivity, which represents the most exhaustive measure of this construct. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Watershed Health Assessment Tools Investigating Fisheries WHAT IF Version 2: A Manager’s Guide to New Features

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The CVI Watershed Health Assessment Tool Investigating Fisheries, WHAT IF version 2, currently contains five components: Regional Prioritization Tool, Hydrologic Tool, Clustering Tool, Habitat Suitability Tool, BASS model

TIM Version 3.0 beta - Technical Description and User's Guidance

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Provides technical information on version 3.0 of the Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM v.3.0). Describes how TIM derives joint distributions of exposure and toxicity to calculate the risk of mortality to birds.

Computational models for the viscous/inviscid analysis of jet aircraft exhaust plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dash, S. M.; Pergament, H. S.; Thorpe, R. D.

1980-05-01

Computational models which analyze viscous/inviscid flow processes in jet aircraft exhaust plumes are discussed. These models are component parts of an NASA-LaRC method for the prediction of nozzle afterbody drag. Inviscid/shock processes are analyzed by the SCIPAC code which is a compact version of a generalized shock capturing, inviscid plume code (SCIPPY). The SCIPAC code analyzes underexpanded jet exhaust gas mixtures with a self-contained thermodynamic package for hydrocarbon exhaust products and air. A detailed and automated treatment of the embedded subsonic zones behind Mach discs is provided in this analysis. Mixing processes along the plume interface are analyzed by two upgraded versions of an overlaid, turbulent mixing code (BOAT) developed previously for calculating nearfield jet entrainment. The BOATAC program is a frozen chemistry version of BOAT containing the aircraft thermodynamic package as SCIPAC; BOATAB is an afterburning version with a self-contained aircraft (hydrocarbon/air) finite-rate chemistry package. The coupling of viscous and inviscid flow processes is achieved by an overlaid procedure with interactive effects accounted for by a displacement thickness type correction to the inviscid plume interface.

Computational models for the viscous/inviscid analysis of jet aircraft exhaust plumes. [predicting afterbody drag

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dash, S. M.; Pergament, H. S.; Thorpe, R. D.

1980-01-01

Computational models which analyze viscous/inviscid flow processes in jet aircraft exhaust plumes are discussed. These models are component parts of an NASA-LaRC method for the prediction of nozzle afterbody drag. Inviscid/shock processes are analyzed by the SCIPAC code which is a compact version of a generalized shock capturing, inviscid plume code (SCIPPY). The SCIPAC code analyzes underexpanded jet exhaust gas mixtures with a self-contained thermodynamic package for hydrocarbon exhaust products and air. A detailed and automated treatment of the embedded subsonic zones behind Mach discs is provided in this analysis. Mixing processes along the plume interface are analyzed by two upgraded versions of an overlaid, turbulent mixing code (BOAT) developed previously for calculating nearfield jet entrainment. The BOATAC program is a frozen chemistry version of BOAT containing the aircraft thermodynamic package as SCIPAC; BOATAB is an afterburning version with a self-contained aircraft (hydrocarbon/air) finite-rate chemistry package. The coupling of viscous and inviscid flow processes is achieved by an overlaid procedure with interactive effects accounted for by a displacement thickness type correction to the inviscid plume interface.

Maxdose-SR and popdose-SR routine release atmospheric dose models used at SRS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jannik, G. T.; Trimor, P. P.

MAXDOSE-SR and POPDOSE-SR are used to calculate dose to the offsite Reference Person and to the surrounding Savannah River Site (SRS) population respectively following routine releases of atmospheric radioactivity. These models are currently accessed through the Dose Model Version 2014 graphical user interface (GUI). MAXDOSE-SR and POPDOSE-SR are personal computer (PC) versions of MAXIGASP and POPGASP, which both resided on the SRS IBM Mainframe. These two codes follow U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Regulatory Guides 1.109 and 1.111 (1977a, 1977b). The basis for MAXDOSE-SR and POPDOSE-SR are USNRC developed codes XOQDOQ (Sagendorf et. al 1982) and GASPAR (Eckerman et. almore » 1980). Both of these codes have previously been verified for use at SRS (Simpkins 1999 and 2000). The revisions incorporated into MAXDOSE-SR and POPDOSE-SR Version 2014 (hereafter referred to as MAXDOSE-SR and POPDOSE-SR unless otherwise noted) were made per Computer Program Modification Tracker (CPMT) number Q-CMT-A-00016 (Appendix D). Version 2014 was verified for use at SRS in Dixon (2014).« less

Spanish version of Colquitt's Organizational Justice Scale.

PubMed

Díaz-Gracia, Liliana; Barbaranelli, Claudio; Moreno-Jiménez, Bernardo

2014-01-01

Organizational justice (OJ) is an important predictor of different work attitudes and behaviors. Colquitt's Organizational Justice Scale (COJS) was designed to assess employees' perceptions of fairness. This scale has four dimensions: distributive, procedural, informational, and interpersonal justice. The objective of this study is to validate it in a Spanish sample. The scale was administered to 460 Spanish employees from the service sector. 40.4% were men and 59.6% women. The Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) supported the four dimensions structure for Spanish version of COJS. This model showed a better fit to data that the others models tested. Cronbach's alpha obtained for subscales ranged between .88 and .95. Correlations of the Spanish version of COJS with measures of incivility and job satisfaction were statistically significant and had a moderate to high magnitude, indicating a reasonable degree of construct validity. The Spanish version of COJS has adequate psychometric properties and may be of value in assessing OJ in Spanish setting.

Psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the Cognitive Emotion Regulation Questionnaire.

PubMed

Domínguez-Sánchez, Francisco J; Lasa-Aristu, Amaia; Amor, Pedro J; Holgado-Tello, Francisco P

2013-04-01

The aim of this study was to validate a Spanish version of the Cognitive Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (CERQ-S), originally developed by Garnefski, Kraaij, and Spinhoven. To date, it is the only available instrument that permits a conceptually pure quantification of cognitive strategies of emotional regulation. A sample of 615 students (25% men; 75% women) completed the CERQ-S. Confirmatory factor analyses showed that, as in the original version, a nine-factor model also explained the data collected with the Spanish version. However, an alternative model that integrates the nine dimensions in two second-order factors shows appropriate global fit indices and has interesting implications. Likewise, the results of the present study are comparable with those obtained in previous work with measures of depression, anxiety, and anger, and increase support for the validity of this instrument for assessing normalized affective states.

The Hamming distance in the minority game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'hulst, R.; Rodgers, G. J.

1999-08-01

We investigate different versions of the minority game, a toy model for agents buying and selling a commodity. The Hamming distance between the strategies used by agents to make decisions is introduced as an analytical tool to determine several properties of these models. The success rate of the agents in an adaptive version of the game is compared with the rate from a stochastic version. It is shown numerically and analytically that the adaptive process is inefficient, increasing the success rate of the unused strategies while decreasing the success rate of the strategies used by the agents. The agents do not do as well as if they were forced to use only one strategy permanently. A version of the game in which the agents strategies evolve is also analysed using the notion of distance. The agents evolve into a state in which they are all using one strategy, which is again the state that yields the maximum success rate.

FORCARB2: An updated version of the U.S. Forest Carbon Budget Model

Treesearch

Linda S. Heath; Michael C. Nichols; James E. Smith; John R. Mills

2010-01-01

FORCARB2, an updated version of the U.S. FORest CARBon Budget Model (FORCARB), produces estimates of carbon stocks and stock changes for forest ecosystems and forest products at 5-year intervals. FORCARB2 includes a new methodology for carbon in harvested wood products, updated initial inventory data, a revised algorithm for dead wood, and now includes public forest...

The Mars Climate Database (MCD version 5.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millour, E.; Forget, F.; Spiga, A.; Navarro, T.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Montabone, L.; Pottier, A.; Lefevre, F.; Montmessin, F.; Chaufray, J.-Y.; Lopez-Valverde, M. A.; Gonzalez-Galindo, F.; Lewis, S. R.; Read, P. L.; Huot, J.-P.; Desjean, M.-C.; MCD/GCM development Team

2015-10-01

The Mars Climate Database (MCD) is a database of meteorological fields derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) numerical simulations of the Martian atmosphere and validated using available observational data. The MCD includes complementary post-processing schemes such as high spatial resolution interpolation of environmental data and means of reconstructing the variability thereof. We have just completed (March 2015) the generation of a new version of the MCD, MCD version 5.2

Using Rasch Analysis to Examine the Dimensionality Structure and Differential Item Functioning of the Arabic Version of the Perceived Physical Ability Scale for Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abd-El-Fattah, Sabry M.; AL-Sinani, Yousra; El Shourbagi, Sahar; Fakhroo, Hessa A.

2014-01-01

This study uses the Rasch model technique to examine the dimensionality structure and differential item functioning of the Arabic version of the Perceived Physical Ability Scale for Children (PPASC). A sample of 220 Omani fourth graders (120 males and 100 females) responded to an Arabic translated version of the PPASC. Data on students'…

Reliability and Construct Validity of the Dutch Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version--Findings from a Sample of Male Adolescents in a Juvenile Justice Treatment Institution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Das, Jacqueline; de Ruiter, Corine; Doreleijers, Theo; Hillege, Sanne

2009-01-01

The present study examines the reliability and construct validity of the Dutch version of the Psychopathy Check List: Youth Version (PCL:YV) in a sample of male adolescents admitted to a secure juvenile justice treatment institution (N = 98). Hare's four-factor model is used to examine reliability and validity of the separate dimensions of…