How can model comparison help improving species distribution models?

PubMed

Gritti, Emmanuel Stephan; Gaucherel, Cédric; Crespo-Perez, Maria-Veronica; Chuine, Isabelle

2013-01-01

Today, more than ever, robust projections of potential species range shifts are needed to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such projections are so far provided almost exclusively by correlative species distribution models (correlative SDMs). However, concerns regarding the reliability of their predictive power are growing and several authors call for the development of process-based SDMs. Still, each of these methods presents strengths and weakness which have to be estimated if they are to be reliably used by decision makers. In this study we compare projections of three different SDMs (STASH, LPJ and PHENOFIT) that lie in the continuum between correlative models and process-based models for the current distribution of three major European tree species, Fagussylvatica L., Quercusrobur L. and Pinussylvestris L. We compare the consistency of the model simulations using an innovative comparison map profile method, integrating local and multi-scale comparisons. The three models simulate relatively accurately the current distribution of the three species. The process-based model performs almost as well as the correlative model, although parameters of the former are not fitted to the observed species distributions. According to our simulations, species range limits are triggered, at the European scale, by establishment and survival through processes primarily related to phenology and resistance to abiotic stress rather than to growth efficiency. The accuracy of projections of the hybrid and process-based model could however be improved by integrating a more realistic representation of the species resistance to water stress for instance, advocating for pursuing efforts to understand and formulate explicitly the impact of climatic conditions and variations on these processes.

How Can Model Comparison Help Improving Species Distribution Models?

PubMed Central

Gritti, Emmanuel Stephan; Gaucherel, Cédric; Crespo-Perez, Maria-Veronica; Chuine, Isabelle

2013-01-01

Today, more than ever, robust projections of potential species range shifts are needed to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such projections are so far provided almost exclusively by correlative species distribution models (correlative SDMs). However, concerns regarding the reliability of their predictive power are growing and several authors call for the development of process-based SDMs. Still, each of these methods presents strengths and weakness which have to be estimated if they are to be reliably used by decision makers. In this study we compare projections of three different SDMs (STASH, LPJ and PHENOFIT) that lie in the continuum between correlative models and process-based models for the current distribution of three major European tree species, Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus robur L. and Pinus sylvestris L. We compare the consistency of the model simulations using an innovative comparison map profile method, integrating local and multi-scale comparisons. The three models simulate relatively accurately the current distribution of the three species. The process-based model performs almost as well as the correlative model, although parameters of the former are not fitted to the observed species distributions. According to our simulations, species range limits are triggered, at the European scale, by establishment and survival through processes primarily related to phenology and resistance to abiotic stress rather than to growth efficiency. The accuracy of projections of the hybrid and process-based model could however be improved by integrating a more realistic representation of the species resistance to water stress for instance, advocating for pursuing efforts to understand and formulate explicitly the impact of climatic conditions and variations on these processes. PMID:23874779

A Critical Comparison of Psychometric Models for Measuring Achievement. Methodology Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choppin, Bruce; And Others

A detailed description of five latent structure models of achievement measurement is presented. The first project paper, by David L. McArthur, analyzes the history of mental testing to show how conventional item analysis procedures were developed, and how dissatisfaction with them has led to fragmentation. The range of distinct conceptual and…

A School Health Project Can Uplift the Health Status of School Children in Nepal.

PubMed

Shrestha, Rachana Manandhar; Miyaguchi, Moe; Shibanuma, Akira; Khanal, Arun; Yasuoka, Junko; Jimba, Masamine

2016-01-01

School health is effective in helping students achieve health literacy, enhance their health-related behaviors, and thereby improve their health status. However, in resource-limited countries, evidence is limited to show the impact of school health. We determined the association of the school health and nutrition (SHN) project activities on students' a) health knowledge, b) hygiene practices, and c) health outcomes, one year after the project completion. This is a cross-sectional study conducted among the schools with the SHN project and without the project in four districts of Nepal. We recruited 604 students from six schools in the project group and 648 students from other six schools in the comparison group. We used a self-administered questionnaire to collect the data, and analyzed them using regression models and a structural equation model (SEM). Students from the SHN project group reported the decreased odds of worm infestation (AOR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.34 to 0.75) and diarrhea/ dysentery infection (AOR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.47 to 0.97) compared to those in the comparison group. Furthermore, the SEM analysis also showed that the students in the project group were more likely to have better health outcomes (β = 0.03, p< 0.05). Students in the SHN project group were more likely to have better health outcomes compared to those in the comparison group, even after one year of the project completion. As it can bring about sustainable changes for students, it should be scaled up in other parts of the country.

Land-use change trajectories up to 2050. Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how theymore » model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.« less

Assessment of Anthropogenic and Climatic Impacts on the Global Carbon Cycle Using a 3-D Model Constrained by Isotopic Carbon Measurements and Remote Sensing of Vegetation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keeling, Charles D.; Piper, S. C.

1998-01-01

Our original proposal called for improved modeling of the terrestrial biospheric carbon cycle, specifically using biome-specific process models to account for both the energy and water budgets of plant growth, to facilitate investigations into recent changes in global atmospheric CO2 abundance and regional distribution. The carbon fluxes predicted by these models were to be incorporated into a global model of CO2 transport to establish large-scale regional fluxes of CO2 to and from the terrestrial biosphere subject to constraints imposed by direct measurements of atmospheric CO2 and its 13C/12C isotopic ratio. Our work was coordinated with a NASA project (NASA NAGW-3151) at the University of Montana under the direction of Steven Running, and was partially funded by the Electric Power Research Institute. The primary objective of this project was to develop and test the Biome-BGC model, a global biological process model with a daily time step which simulates the water, energy and carbon budgets of plant growth. The primary product, the unique global gridded daily land temperature, and the precipitation data set which was used to drive the process model is described. The Biome-BGC model was tested by comparison with a simpler biological model driven by satellite-derived (NDVI) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and (PAR) Photosynthetically Active Radiation data and by comparison with atmospheric CO2 observations. The simple NDVI model is also described. To facilitate the comparison with atmospheric CO2 observations, a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model was used to produce predictions of atmospheric CO2 variations given CO2 fluxes owing to (NPP) Net Primary Productivity and heterotrophic respiration that were produced by the Biome-BGC model and by the NDVI model. The transport model that we used in this project, and errors associated with transport simulations, were characterized by a comparison of 12 transport models.

The Sim-SEQ Project: Comparison of Selected Flow Models for the S-3 Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mukhopadhyay, Sumit; Doughty, Christine A.; Bacon, Diana H.

Sim-SEQ is an international initiative on model comparison for geologic carbon sequestration, with an objective to understand and, if possible, quantify model uncertainties. Model comparison efforts in Sim-SEQ are at present focusing on one specific field test site, hereafter referred to as the Sim-SEQ Study site (or S-3 site). Within Sim-SEQ, different modeling teams are developing conceptual models of CO2 injection at the S-3 site. In this paper, we select five flow models of the S-3 site and provide a qualitative comparison of their attributes and predictions. These models are based on five different simulators or modeling approaches: TOUGH2/EOS7C, STOMP-CO2e,more » MoReS, TOUGH2-MP/ECO2N, and VESA. In addition to model-to-model comparison, we perform a limited model-to-data comparison, and illustrate how model choices impact model predictions. We conclude the paper by making recommendations for model refinement that are likely to result in less uncertainty in model predictions.« less

Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, G. A.; Annan, J D.; Bartlein, P. J.; Cook, B. I.; Guilyardi, E.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Harrison, S. P.; Kageyama, M.; LeGrande, A. N..; Konecky, B.;

78 FR 11858 - Applications for New Awards; Arts in Education Model Development and Dissemination Program

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-20

... the treatment for project participants and, where feasible, for a comparison group of non... in the project (control group). The effect of the project is the average difference in outcomes between the treatment and control groups. Integrating means (i) encouraging the use of high-quality arts...

A Comparison of Financing Illinois Unit School Districts for the School Year 1974-75 with the Alternative Financing Models Developed by the National Educational Finance Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conti, Dennis R.

This study compares the present method of financing Illinois public schools for the school year 1973-74 with six alternative financing models developed by the National Educational Finance Project (NEFP). The NEFP models were as follows: complete local support, flat grant with local leeway limit of 12 mills of equalized assessed valuation,…

Projection pursuit water quality evaluation model based on chicken swam algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhe

2018-03-01

In view of the uncertainty and ambiguity of each index in water quality evaluation, in order to solve the incompatibility of evaluation results of individual water quality indexes, a projection pursuit model based on chicken swam algorithm is proposed. The projection index function which can reflect the water quality condition is constructed, the chicken group algorithm (CSA) is introduced, the projection index function is optimized, the best projection direction of the projection index function is sought, and the best projection value is obtained to realize the water quality evaluation. The comparison between this method and other methods shows that it is reasonable and feasible to provide decision-making basis for water pollution control in the basin.

Comparison of Fast Neutron Detector Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stange, Sy; Mckigney, Edward Allen

2015-02-09

This report documents the work performed for the Department of Homeland Security Domestic Nuclear Detection O ce as the project Fast Neutron Detection Evaluation under contract HSHQDC-14-X-00022. This study was performed as a follow-on to the project Study of Fast Neutron Signatures and Measurement Techniques for SNM Detection - DNDO CFP11-100 STA-01. That work compared various detector technologies in a portal monitor con guration, focusing on a comparison between a number of fast neutron detection techniques and two standard thermal neutron detection technologies. The conclusions of the earlier work are contained in the report Comparison of Fast Neutron Detector Technologies.more » This work is designed to address questions raised about assumptions underlying the models built for the earlier project. To that end, liquid scintillators of two di erent sizes{ one a commercial, o -the-shelf (COTS) model of standard dimensions and the other a large, planer module{were characterized at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The results of those measurements were combined with the results of the earlier models to gain a more complete picture of the performance of liquid scintillator as a portal monitor technology.« less

Alternative projections of the impacts of private investment on southern forests: a comparison of two large-scale forest sector models of the United States.

Treesearch

Ralph Alig; Darius Adams; John Mills; Richard Haynes; Peter Ince; Robert Moulton

2001-01-01

The TAMM/NAPAP/ATLAS/AREACHANGE(TNAA) system and the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) are two large-scale forestry sector modeling systems that have been employed to analyze the U.S. forest resource situation. The TNAA system of static, spatial equilibrium models has been applied to make SO-year projections of the U.S. forest sector for more...

Coordinated Parameterization Development and Large-Eddy Simulation for Marine and Arctic Cloud-Topped Boundary Layers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bretherton, Christopher S.

2002-01-01

The goal of this project was to compare observations of marine and arctic boundary layers with: (1) parameterization systems used in climate and weather forecast models; and (2) two and three dimensional eddy resolving (LES) models for turbulent fluid flow. Based on this comparison, we hoped to better understand, predict, and parameterize the boundary layer structure and cloud amount, type, and thickness as functions of large scale conditions that are predicted by global climate models. The principal achievements of the project were as follows: (1) Development of a novel boundary layer parameterization for large-scale models that better represents the physical processes in marine boundary layer clouds; and (2) Comparison of column output from the ECMWF global forecast model with observations from the SHEBA experiment. Overall the forecast model did predict most of the major precipitation events and synoptic variability observed over the year of observation of the SHEBA ice camp.

Projections of Rainfall and Temperature from CMIP5 Models over BIMSTEC Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Ragi, A. R.

2014-12-01

Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand reveals that the magnitudes are more in 2070 to 2100 of RCP8.5. Inter-model comparison show that there are large more uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections.

Projections of Rainfall and Surface Temperature from CMIP5 Models under RCP4.5 and 8.5 over BIMSTEC Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charan Pattnayak, Kanhu; Kar, Sarat Chandra; Kumari Pattnayak, Rashmita

2015-04-01

Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand reveals that the magnitudes are more in 2070 to 2100 of RCP8.5. Inter-model comparison show that there are large more uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections.

VEMAP vs VINCERA: a DGVM sensitivity to differences in climate scenarios

Treesearch

Dominique Bachelet; James Lenihan; Ray Drapek; Ronald Neilson

2008-01-01

The MCI DGVM has been used in two international model comparison projects, VEMAP (Vegetation Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project) and VINCERA (Vulnerability and Impacts of North American forests to Climate Change: Ecosystem Responses and Adaptation). The latest version of MC1 was run on both VINCERA and VEMAP climate and soil input data to document how a change in...

GCSS Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, David OC.; Benedetti, Angela; Boehm, Matt; Brown, Philip R. A.; Gierens, Klaus; Girard, Eric; Giraud, Vincent; Jakob, Christian; Jensen, Eric; Khvorostyanov, Vitaly;

Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) Preparation for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denvil, S.; Murphy, S.; Greenslade, M. A.; Lawrence, B.; Guilyardi, E.; Pascoe, C.; Treshanksy, A.; Elkington, M.; Hibling, E.; Hassell, D.

2015-12-01

During the course of 2015 the Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) project began its preparations for CMIP6 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6) by further extending the ES-DOC tooling ecosystem in support of Earth System Model (ESM) documentation creation, search, viewing & comparison. The ES-DOC online questionnaire, the ES-DOC desktop notebook, and the ES-DOC python toolkit will serve as multiple complementary pathways to generating CMIP6 documentation. It is envisaged that institutes will leverage these tools at different points of the CMIP6 lifecycle. Institutes will be particularly interested to know that the documentation burden will be either streamlined or completely automated.As all the tools are tightly integrated with the ES-DOC web-service, institutes can be confident that the latency between documentation creation & publishing will be reduced to a minimum. Published documents will be viewable with the online ES-DOC Viewer (accessible via citable URL's). Model inter-comparison scenarios will be supported using the ES-DOC online Comparator tool. The Comparator is being extended to:• Support comparison of both Model descriptions & Simulation runs;• Greatly streamline the effort involved in compiling official tables.The entire ES-DOC ecosystem is open source and built upon open standards such as the Common Information Model (CIM) (versions 1 and 2).

The global gridded crop model intercomparison: Data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0)

DOE PAGES

Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D.; ...

2015-02-11

We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project consist of global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification ofmore » key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.« less

Science to Improve Nutrient Management Practices, Metrics of Benefits, Accountability, and Communication (Project SSWR 4.03)

EPA Science Inventory

This project will demonstrate transferable modeling techniques and monitoring approaches to enable water resource professionals to make comparisons among nutrient reduction management scenarios across urban and agricultural areas. It will produce the applied science to allow bett...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bauer, Stephen J.

The elevation change data measured at the Bryan Mound Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) site over the last 16+ years has been studied and a model utilized to project elevation changes into the future. The subsidence rate at Bryan Mound is low in comparison with other Strategic Petroleum Reserve sites and has decreased with time due to the maintenance of higher operating pressures and the normal decrease in creep closure rate of caverns with time. However, the subsidence at the site is projected to continue. A model was developed to project subsidence values 20 years into the future; no subsidence relatedmore » issues are apparent from these projections.« less

Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephens, Thomas S.; Levinson, Rebecca S.; Brooker, Aaron

Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception ofmore » ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible.« less

A River Model Intercomparison Project in Preparation for SWOT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, C. H.; Andreadis, K.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Beighley, E.; Boone, A. A.; Yamazaki, D.; Paiva, R. C. D.; Fleischmann, A. S.; Collischonn, W.; Fisher, C. K.; Kim, H.; Biancamaria, S.

2017-12-01

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is currently scheduled to launch at the beginning of next decade. SWOT is expected to retrieve unprecedented measurements of water extent, elevation, and slope in the largest terrestrial water bodies. Such potential transformative information motivates the investigation of our ability to ingest the associated data into continental-scale models of terrestrial hydrology. In preparation for the expected SWOT observations, an inter-comparison of continental-scale river models is being performed. This comparison experiment focuses on four of the world's largest river basins: the Amazon, the Mississippi, the Niger, and the Saint-Lawrence. This ongoing project focuses on two main research questions: 1) How can we best prepare for the expected SWOT continental to global measurements before SWOT even flies?, and 2) What is the added value of including SWOT terrestrial measurements into global hydro models for enhancing our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle and the climate system? We present here the results of the second year of this project which now includes simulations from six numerical models of rivers over the Mississippi and sheds light on the implications of various modeling choices on simulation quality as well as on the potential impact of SWOT observations.

Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie; Barnard, Patrick; Ruggiero, Peter; van Ormondt, Martin

2015-01-01

Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of climate change on coastal systems.

A Comparison of Software Schedule Estimators

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

SLIM ...................................... 33 SPQR /20 ................................... 35 System -4 .................................... 37 Previous...24 3. PRICE-S Outputs ..................................... 26 4. COCOMO Factors by Category ........................... 28 5. SPQR /20 Activities...actual schedules experienced on the projects. The models analyzed were REVIC, PRICE-S, System-4, SPQR /20, and SEER. ix A COMPARISON OF SOFTWARE

A Generalized Thurstonian Paired Comparison Multicriteria Heuristic Model for Peer Evaluation of Individual Performance on IS Team Projects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scher, Julian M.

2010-01-01

Information Systems instructors are generally encouraged to introduce team projects into their pedagogy, with a consequential issue of objectively evaluating the performance of each individual team member. The concept of "freeloading" is well-known for team projects, and for this, and other reasons, a peer review process of team members,…

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

PubMed

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

2016-12-01

Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling of labour productivity loss due to climate change: HEAT-SHIELD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Tord; Daanen, Hein

2016-04-01

Climate change will bring higher heat levels (temperature and humidity combined) to large parts of the world. When these levels reach above thresholds well defined by human physiology, the ability to maintain physical activity levels decrease and labour productivity is reduced. This impact is of particular importance in work situations in areas with long high intensity hot seasons, but also affects cooler areas during heat waves. Our modelling of labour productivity loss includes climate model data of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISI-MIP), calculations of heat stress indexes during different months, estimations of work capacity loss and its annual impacts in different parts of the world. Different climate models will be compared for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the outcomes of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) agreements. The validation includes comparisons of modelling outputs with actual field studies using historical heat data. These modelling approaches are a first stage contribution to the European Commission funded HEAT-SHIELD project.

An Empirical Bayes Approach to Item Banking. Project Psychometric Aspects of Item Banking No. 6. Research Report 86-6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Linden, Wim J.; Eggen, Theo J. H. M.

A procedure for the sequential optimization of the calibration of an item bank is given. The procedure is based on an empirical Bayes approach to a reformulation of the Rasch model as a model for paired comparisons between the difficulties of test items in which ties are allowed to occur. First, it is indicated how a paired-comparisons design…

The Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) Software Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenslade, M. A.; Murphy, S.; Treshansky, A.; DeLuca, C.; Guilyardi, E.; Denvil, S.

2013-12-01

Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) is an international project supplying high-quality tools & services in support of earth system documentation creation, analysis and dissemination. It is nurturing a sustainable standards based documentation eco-system that aims to become an integral part of the next generation of exa-scale dataset archives. ES-DOC leverages open source software, and applies a software development methodology that places end-user narratives at the heart of all it does. ES-DOC has initially focused upon nurturing the Earth System Model (ESM) documentation eco-system and currently supporting the following projects: * Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5); * Dynamical Core Model Inter-comparison Project (DCMIP); * National Climate Predictions and Projections Platforms Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop. This talk will demonstrate that ES-DOC implements a relatively mature software development process. Taking a pragmatic Agile process as inspiration, ES-DOC: * Iteratively develops and releases working software; * Captures user requirements via a narrative based approach; * Uses online collaboration tools (e.g. Earth System CoG) to manage progress; * Prototypes applications to validate their feasibility; * Leverages meta-programming techniques where appropriate; * Automates testing whenever sensibly feasible; * Streamlines complex deployments to a single command; * Extensively leverages GitHub and Pivotal Tracker; * Enforces strict separation of the UI from underlying API's; * Conducts code reviews.

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: A global-scale model comparison

DOE PAGES

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; ...

2016-05-02

Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, modelmore » structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Furthermore, current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.« less

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: A global-scale model comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, modelmore » structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Furthermore, current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.« less

Climate Mitigation in Latin America: Implications for Energy and Land Use: Preface to the Special Section on the findings of the CLIMACAP-LAMP Project

DOE PAGES

van der Zwaan, Bob; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.

2016-05-01

The CLIMACAP-LAMP project, completed in December 2015, was an inter-model comparison exercise that focused on energy and climate change economics issues in Latin America. The project partners – co-financed by the EC / EuropeAid (CLIMACAP part) and EPA / USAID (LAMP part) and co-coordinated by respectively the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) – report their main and detailed findings in this Special Issue of Energy Economics, exclusively dedicated to climate mitigation, low-carbon development and implications for energy and land use in Latin America. Our research endeavor included several of the mostmore » prominent regional energy modeling groups from Latin America, as well as a representative set of global integrated assessment modeling groups from a number of institutions from Europe and the US. About two dozen universities, research groups and environmental or consulting organizations took part in the CLIMACAP-LAMP cross-model comparison project, from both sides of the Atlantic. Over a handful of workshops were organized over the past four years in several countries in Latin America, attended by between 30 and 50 participants from, amongst others, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the EU, and the US.« less

OC5 Project Phase Ib: Validation of hydrodynamic loading on a fixed, flexible cylinder for offshore wind applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, Amy N.; Wendt, Fabian; Jonkman, Jason M.

This paper summarizes the findings from Phase Ib of the Offshore Code Comparison, Collaboration, Continued with Correlation (OC5) project. OC5 is a project run under the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Research Task 30, and is focused on validating the tools used for modelling offshore wind systems through the comparison of simulated responses of select offshore wind systems (and components) to physical test data. For Phase Ib of the project, simulated hydrodynamic loads on a flexible cylinder fixed to a sloped bed were validated against test measurements made in the shallow water basin at the Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI) withmore » support from the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). The first phase of OC5 examined two simple cylinder structures (Phase Ia and Ib) to focus on validation of hydrodynamic models used in the various tools before moving on to more complex offshore wind systems and the associated coupled physics. As a result, verification and validation activities such as these lead to improvement of offshore wind modelling tools, which will enable the development of more innovative and cost-effective offshore wind designs.« less

OC5 Project Phase Ib: Validation of hydrodynamic loading on a fixed, flexible cylinder for offshore wind applications

DOE PAGES

Robertson, Amy N.; Wendt, Fabian; Jonkman, Jason M.; ...

2016-10-13

This paper summarizes the findings from Phase Ib of the Offshore Code Comparison, Collaboration, Continued with Correlation (OC5) project. OC5 is a project run under the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Research Task 30, and is focused on validating the tools used for modelling offshore wind systems through the comparison of simulated responses of select offshore wind systems (and components) to physical test data. For Phase Ib of the project, simulated hydrodynamic loads on a flexible cylinder fixed to a sloped bed were validated against test measurements made in the shallow water basin at the Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI) withmore » support from the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). The first phase of OC5 examined two simple cylinder structures (Phase Ia and Ib) to focus on validation of hydrodynamic models used in the various tools before moving on to more complex offshore wind systems and the associated coupled physics. As a result, verification and validation activities such as these lead to improvement of offshore wind modelling tools, which will enable the development of more innovative and cost-effective offshore wind designs.« less

Validation of mesoscale models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuo, Bill; Warner, Tom; Benjamin, Stan; Koch, Steve; Staniforth, Andrew

1993-01-01

The topics discussed include the following: verification of cloud prediction from the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model; results form MAPS/NGM verification comparisons and MAPS observation sensitivity tests to ACARS and profiler data; systematic errors and mesoscale verification for a mesoscale model; and the COMPARE Project and the CME.

MOCCA code for star cluster simulation: comparison with optical observations using COCOA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Askar, Abbas; Giersz, Mirek; Pych, Wojciech; Olech, Arkadiusz; Hypki, Arkadiusz

2016-02-01

We introduce and present preliminary results from COCOA (Cluster simulatiOn Comparison with ObservAtions) code for a star cluster after 12 Gyr of evolution simulated using the MOCCA code. The COCOA code is being developed to quickly compare results of numerical simulations of star clusters with observational data. We use COCOA to obtain parameters of the projected cluster model. For comparison, a FITS file of the projected cluster was provided to observers so that they could use their observational methods and techniques to obtain cluster parameters. The results show that the similarity of cluster parameters obtained through numerical simulations and observations depends significantly on the quality of observational data and photometric accuracy.

A comparison of the lattice discrete particle method to the finite-element method and the K&C material model for simulating the static and dynamic response of concrete.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Jovanca J.; Bishop, Joseph E.

2013-11-01

This report summarizes the work performed by the graduate student Jovanca Smith during a summer internship in the summer of 2012 with the aid of mentor Joe Bishop. The projects were a two-part endeavor that focused on the use of the numerical model called the Lattice Discrete Particle Model (LDPM). The LDPM is a discrete meso-scale model currently used at Northwestern University and the ERDC to model the heterogeneous quasi-brittle material, concrete. In the first part of the project, LDPM was compared to the Karagozian and Case Concrete Model (K&C) used in Presto, an explicit dynamics finite-element code, developed atmore » Sandia National Laboratories. In order to make this comparison, a series of quasi-static numerical experiments were performed, namely unconfined uniaxial compression tests on four varied cube specimen sizes, three-point bending notched experiments on three proportional specimen sizes, and six triaxial compression tests on a cylindrical specimen. The second part of this project focused on the application of LDPM to simulate projectile perforation on an ultra high performance concrete called CORTUF. This application illustrates the strengths of LDPM over traditional continuum models.« less

A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Cheung, William; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Büchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Huber, Veronika; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda; Lehodey, Patrick; Link, Jason S.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Silva, Tiago; Stock, Charles A.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Underwood, Philip J.; Volkholz, Jan; Watson, James R.; Walker, Nicola D.

2018-04-01

Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, James T; Thornton, Peter E

2009-12-01

The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Projectmore » (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons of the CLM3 offline results against observational datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). CLM version 4 has been evaluated using C-LAMP, showing improvement in many of the metrics. Efforts are now underway to initiate a Nitrogen-Land Model Intercomparison Project (N-LAMP) to better constrain the effects of the nitrogen cycle in biosphere models. Presented will be new results from C-LAMP for CLM4, initial N-LAMP developments, and the proposed land-biosphere model benchmarking activity.« less

Hydrological Modeling in the Bull Run Watershed in Support of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, B.; Chiao, T. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Vano, J. A.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic models with varying complexities and structures are commonly used to evaluate the impact of climate change on future hydrology. While the uncertainties in future climate projections are well documented, uncertainties in streamflow projections associated with hydrologic model structure and parameter estimation have received less attention. In this study, we implemented and calibrated three hydrologic models (the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)) for the Bull Run watershed in northern Oregon using consistent data sources and best practice calibration protocols. The project was part of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project with the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) under the umbrella of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA). Ultimately PWB would use the model evaluation to select a model to perform in-house climate change analysis for Bull Run Watershed. This presentation focuses on the experimental design of the comparison project, project findings and the collaboration between the team at the University of Washington and at PWB. After calibration, the three models showed similar capability to reproduce seasonal and inter-annual variations in streamflow, but differed in their ability to capture extreme events. Furthermore, the annual and seasonal hydrologic sensitivities to changes in climate forcings differed among models, potentially attributable to different model representations of snow and vegetation processes.

The Impact of Climate Projection Method on the Analysis of Climate Change in Semi-arid Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halper, E.; Shamir, E.

2016-12-01

In small basins with arid climates, rainfall characteristics are highly variable and stream flow is tightly coupled with the nuances of rainfall events (e.g. hourly precipitation patterns Climate change assessments in these basins typically employ CMIP5 projections downscaled with Bias Corrected Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction/Constructed Analogs (BCSD-BCCA) methods, but these products have drawbacks. Specifically, BCSD-BCCA these projections do not explicitly account for localized physical precipitation mechanisms (e.g. monsoon and snowfall) that are essential to many hydrological systems in the U. S. Southwest. An investigation of the impact of different types of precipitation projections for two kinds of hydrologic studies is being conducted under the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's Science and Technology Grant Program. An innovative modeling framework consisting of a weather generator of likely hourly precipitation scenarios, coupled with rainfall-runoff, river routing and groundwater models, has been developed in the Nogales, Arizona area. This framework can simulate the impact of future climate on municipal water operations. This framework allows the rigorous comparison of the BCSD-BCCA methods with alternative approaches including rainfall output from dynamical downscaled Regional Climate Models (RCM), a stochastic rainfall generator forced by either Global Climate Models (GCM) or RCM, and projections using historical records conditioned on either GCM or RCM. The results will provide guide for the use of climate change projections into hydrologic studies of semi-arid areas. The project extends this comparison to analyses of flood control. Large flows on the Bill Williams River are a concern for the operation of dams along the Lower Colorado River. After adapting the weather generator for this region, we will evaluate the model performance for rainfall and stream flow, with emphasis on statistical features important to the specific needs of flood management. The end product of the research is to develop a test to guide selection of a precipitation projection method (including downscaling procedure) for a given region and objective.

Data-Model Comparison of Pliocene Sea Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dowsett, H. J.; Foley, K.; Robinson, M. M.; Bloemers, J. T.

2013-12-01

The mid-Piacenzian (late Pliocene) climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21st century. As such, its fossil and sedimentary record represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. We present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperatures (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) and the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional (mid- to high latitude North Atlantic and tropics) and dynamic (upwelling) situations where there is discord between reconstructed SST and the PlioMIP simulations. These differences can lead to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. Scatter plot of multi-model-mean anomalies (squares) and PRISM3 data anomalies (large blue circles) by latitude. Vertical bars on data anomalies represent the variability of warm climate phase within the time-slab at each locality. Small colored circles represent individual model anomalies and show the spread of model estimates about the multi-model-mean. While not directly comparable in terms of the development of the means nor the meaning of variability, this plot provides a first order comparison of the anomalies. Encircled areas are a, PRISM low latitude sites outside of upwelling areas; b, North Atlantic coastal sequences and Mediterranean sites; c, large anomaly PRISM sites from the northern hemisphere. Numbers identify Ocean Drilling Program sites.

Quality in E-Learning--A Conceptual Framework Based on Experiences from Three International Benchmarking Projects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ossiannilsson, E.; Landgren, L.

2012-01-01

Between 2008 and 2010, Lund University took part in three international benchmarking projects, "E-xcellence+," the "eLearning Benchmarking Exercise 2009," and the "First Dual-Mode Distance Learning Benchmarking Club." A comparison of these models revealed a rather high level of correspondence. From this finding and…

Assigning Students in Group Work Projects. Can We Do Better than Random?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huxham, Mark; Land, Ray

2000-01-01

Discussion of group work projects in higher education focuses on a comparison of the performance of student groups formed randomly, with those formed using the Honey and Mumford learning styles questionnaire. Describes results that indicate no significant difference in student performances and considers the relationship to the Kolb model.…

Catchment Models and Management Tools for diffuse Contaminants (Sediment, Phosphorus and Pesticides): DIFFUSE Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mockler, Eva; Reaney, Simeon; Mellander, Per-Erik; Wade, Andrew; Collins, Adrian; Arheimer, Berit; Bruen, Michael

2017-04-01

The agricultural sector is the most common suspected source of nutrient pollution in Irish rivers. However, it is also often the most difficult source to characterise due to its predominantly diffuse nature. Particulate phosphorus in surface water and dissolved phosphorus in groundwater are of particular concern in Irish water bodies. Hence the further development of models and indices to assess diffuse sources of contaminants are required for use by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to provide support for river basin planning. Understanding connectivity in the landscape is a vital component of characterising the source-pathway-receptor relationships for water-borne contaminants, and hence is a priority in this research. The DIFFUSE Project will focus on connectivity modelling and incorporation of connectivity into sediment, nutrient and pesticide risk mapping. The Irish approach to understanding and managing natural water bodies has developed substantially in recent years assisted by outputs from multiple research projects, including modelling and analysis tools developed during the Pathways and CatchmentTools projects. These include the Pollution Impact Potential (PIP) maps, which are an example of research output that is used by the EPA to support catchment management. The PIP maps integrate an understanding of the pollution pressures and mobilisation pathways and, using the source-pathways-receptor model, provide a scientific basis for evaluation of mitigation measures. These maps indicate the potential risk posed by nitrate and phosphate from diffuse agricultural sources to surface and groundwater receptors and delineate critical source areas (CSAs) as a means of facilitating the targeting of mitigation measures. Building on this previous research, the DIFFUSE Project will develop revised and new catchment managements tools focused on connectivity, sediment, phosphorus and pesticides. The DIFFUSE project will strive to identify the state-of-the-art methods and models that are most applicable to Irish conditions and management challenges. All styles of modelling considered useful for water resources management are relevant to this project and a balance of technical sophistication, data availability and operational practicalities is the ultimate goal. Achievement of this objective will be measured by comparing the performance of the new models developed in the project with models used in other countries. The models and tools developed in the course of the project will be evaluated by comparison with Irish catchment data and with other state-of-the-art models in a model-inter-comparison workshop which will be open to other models and the wider research community.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

van der Zwaan, Bob; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.

The CLIMACAP-LAMP project, completed in December 2015, was an inter-model comparison exercise that focused on energy and climate change economics issues in Latin America. The project partners – co-financed by the EC / EuropeAid (CLIMACAP part) and EPA / USAID (LAMP part) and co-coordinated by respectively the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) – report their main and detailed findings in this Special Issue of Energy Economics, exclusively dedicated to climate mitigation, low-carbon development and implications for energy and land use in Latin America. Our research endeavor included several of the mostmore » prominent regional energy modeling groups from Latin America, as well as a representative set of global integrated assessment modeling groups from a number of institutions from Europe and the US. About two dozen universities, research groups and environmental or consulting organizations took part in the CLIMACAP-LAMP cross-model comparison project, from both sides of the Atlantic. Over a handful of workshops were organized over the past four years in several countries in Latin America, attended by between 30 and 50 participants from, amongst others, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the EU, and the US.« less

High resolution infrared datasets useful for validating stratospheric models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rinsland, Curtis P.

1992-01-01

An important objective of the High Speed Research Program (HSRP) is to support research in the atmospheric sciences that will improve the basic understanding of the circulation and chemistry of the stratosphere and lead to an interim assessment of the impact of a projected fleet of High Speed Civil Transports (HSCT's) on the stratosphere. As part of this work, critical comparisons between models and existing high quality measurements are planned. These comparisons will be used to test the reliability of current atmospheric chemistry models. Two suitable sets of high resolution infrared measurements are discussed.

Case studies, cross-site comparisons, and the challenge of generalization: comparing agent-based models of land-use change in frontier regions

PubMed Central

Parker, Dawn C.; Entwisle, Barbara; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Vanwey, Leah K.; Manson, Steven M.; Moran, Emilio; An, Li; Deadman, Peter; Evans, Tom P.; Linderman, Marc; Rizi, S. Mohammad Mussavi; Malanson, George

2009-01-01

Cross-site comparisons of case studies have been identified as an important priority by the land-use science community. From an empirical perspective, such comparisons potentially allow generalizations that may contribute to production of global-scale land-use and land-cover change projections. From a theoretical perspective, such comparisons can inform development of a theory of land-use science by identifying potential hypotheses and supporting or refuting evidence. This paper undertakes a structured comparison of four case studies of land-use change in frontier regions that follow an agent-based modeling approach. Our hypothesis is that each case study represents a particular manifestation of a common process. Given differences in initial conditions among sites and the time at which the process is observed, actual mechanisms and outcomes are anticipated to differ substantially between sites. Our goal is to reveal both commonalities and differences among research sites, model implementations, and ultimately, conclusions derived from the modeling process. PMID:19960107

Case studies, cross-site comparisons, and the challenge of generalization: comparing agent-based models of land-use change in frontier regions.

PubMed

Parker, Dawn C; Entwisle, Barbara; Rindfuss, Ronald R; Vanwey, Leah K; Manson, Steven M; Moran, Emilio; An, Li; Deadman, Peter; Evans, Tom P; Linderman, Marc; Rizi, S Mohammad Mussavi; Malanson, George

2008-01-01

Cross-site comparisons of case studies have been identified as an important priority by the land-use science community. From an empirical perspective, such comparisons potentially allow generalizations that may contribute to production of global-scale land-use and land-cover change projections. From a theoretical perspective, such comparisons can inform development of a theory of land-use science by identifying potential hypotheses and supporting or refuting evidence. This paper undertakes a structured comparison of four case studies of land-use change in frontier regions that follow an agent-based modeling approach. Our hypothesis is that each case study represents a particular manifestation of a common process. Given differences in initial conditions among sites and the time at which the process is observed, actual mechanisms and outcomes are anticipated to differ substantially between sites. Our goal is to reveal both commonalities and differences among research sites, model implementations, and ultimately, conclusions derived from the modeling process.

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections.

PubMed

Alexander, Peter; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H; Arneth, Almut; Baranzelli, Claudia; Batista E Silva, Filipe; Brown, Calum; Butler, Adam; Calvin, Katherine; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Doelman, Jonathan C; Dunford, Robert; Engström, Kerstin; Eitelberg, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harrison, Paula A; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Holzhauer, Sascha; Humpenöder, Florian; Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Lavalle, Carlo; Lenton, Tim; Liu, Jiayi; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Powell, Tom; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Stehfest, Elke; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; Wise, Marshall A; Rounsevell, Mark D A

2017-02-01

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using GTO-Velo to Facilitate Communication and Sharing of Simulation Results in Support of the Geothermal Technologies Office Code Comparison Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, Signe K.; Purohit, Sumit; Boyd, Lauren W.

The Geothermal Technologies Office Code Comparison Study (GTO-CCS) aims to support the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office in organizing and executing a model comparison activity. This project is directed at testing, diagnosing differences, and demonstrating modeling capabilities of a worldwide collection of numerical simulators for evaluating geothermal technologies. Teams of researchers are collaborating in this code comparison effort, and it is important to be able to share results in a forum where technical discussions can easily take place without requiring teams to travel to a common location. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has developed an open-source, flexible framework called Velo that providesmore » a knowledge management infrastructure and tools to support modeling and simulation for a variety of types of projects in a number of scientific domains. GTO-Velo is a customized version of the Velo Framework that is being used as the collaborative tool in support of the GTO-CCS project. Velo is designed around a novel integration of a collaborative Web-based environment and a scalable enterprise Content Management System (CMS). The underlying framework provides a flexible and unstructured data storage system that allows for easy upload of files that can be in any format. Data files are organized in hierarchical folders and each folder and each file has a corresponding wiki page for metadata. The user interacts with Velo through a web browser based wiki technology, providing the benefit of familiarity and ease of use. High-level folders have been defined in GTO-Velo for the benchmark problem descriptions, descriptions of simulator/code capabilities, a project notebook, and folders for participating teams. Each team has a subfolder with write access limited only to the team members, where they can upload their simulation results. The GTO-CCS participants are charged with defining the benchmark problems for the study, and as each GTO-CCS Benchmark problem is defined, the problem creator can provide a description using a template on the metadata page corresponding to the benchmark problem folder. Project documents, references and videos of the weekly online meetings are shared via GTO-Velo. A results comparison tool allows users to plot their uploaded simulation results on the fly, along with those of other teams, to facilitate weekly discussions of the benchmark problem results being generated by the teams. GTO-Velo is an invaluable tool providing the project coordinators and team members with a framework for collaboration among geographically dispersed organizations.« less

The Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project. Phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Ruei-Fong; Starr, D.; DeMott, P.; Cotten, R.; Jensen, E.; Sassen, K.

2000-01-01

The cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project involves the systematic comparison of current models of ice crystal nucleation and growth for specified, typical, cirrus cloud environments. In Phase 1 of the project reported here, simulated cirrus cloud microphysical properties are compared for situations of "warm" (-40 C) and "cold" (-60 C) cirrus subject to updrafts of 4, 20 and 100 centimeters per second, respectively. Five models are participating in the project. These models employ explicit microphysical schemes wherein the size distribution of each class of particles (aerosols and ice crystals) is resolved into bins. Simulations are made including both homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanisms. A single initial aerosol population of sulfuric acid particles is prescribed for all simulations. To isolate the treatment of the homogeneous freezing (of haze drops) nucleation process, the heterogeneous nucleation mechanism is disabled for a second parallel set of simulations. Qualitative agreement is found amongst the models for the homogeneous-nucleation-only simulations, e.g., the number density of nucleated ice crystals increases with the strength of the prescribed updraft. However, non-negligible quantitative differences are found. Systematic bias exists between results of a model based on a modified classical theory approach and models using an effective freezing temperature approach to the treatment of nucleation. Each approach is constrained by critical freezing data from laboratory studies. This information is necessary, but not sufficient, to construct consistent formulae for the two approaches. Large haze particles may deviate considerably from equilibrium size in moderate to strong updrafts (20-100 centimeters per second) at -60 C when the commonly invoked equilibrium assumption is lifted. The resulting difference in particle-size-dependent solution concentration of haze particles may significantly affect the ice nucleation rate during the initial nucleation interval. The uptake rate for water vapor excess by ice crystals is another key component regulating the total number of nucleated ice crystals. This rate, the product of ice number concentration and ice crystal diffusional growth rate, partially controls the peak nucleation rate achieved in an air parcel and the duration of the active nucleation time period.

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there is a need for improvement in LULC theory and modeling capabilities to improve acceptance and use of regional- to national-scale LULC projections for the United States and elsewhere.

A Comparison Study and Software Implementation of NORDA Ocean Models.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-10-08

L01?C07 ’EEEEElshhhh A COMPARISON STUDY AND SOFTWARE IMPLEMENTATION OF NORDA OCEAN MODELS J&IEA m/ MST* f-....~ cre mx IRSD~I?( J 300 Unicorn Park...34- NOO-79- 741 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT, TASK AREA 6 WORK UNIT NUMBERSJAYC0, 300 Unicorn Park Drive...before another execution of the energetics program, move them back to disk. Note that the outputs of the preprocessor reside on disk, they should not be

1986-87 atomic mass predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haustein, P.E.

A project to perform a comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions has recently been concluded and will be published shortly in Atomic Data and Nuclear Data Tables. The project evolved from an ongoing comparison between available mass predictions and reports of newly measured masses of isotopes throughout the mass surface. These comparisons have highlighted a variety of features in current mass models which are responsible for predictions that diverge from masses determined experimentally. The need for a comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions was therefore apparent and the project was organized and began at the last mass conferencemore » (AMCO-VII). Project participants included: Pape and Anthony; Dussel, Caurier and Zuker; Moeller and Nix; Moeller, Myers, Swiatecki and Treiner; Comay, Kelson, and Zidon; Satpathy and Nayak; Tachibana, Uno, Yamada and Yamada; Spanier and Johansson; Jaenecke and Masson; and Wapstra, Audi and Hoekstra. An overview of the new atomic mass predictions may be obtained by written request.« less

The 1986-87 atomic mass predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, P. E.

1987-12-01

A project to perform a comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions has recently been concluded and will be published shortly in Atomic Data and Nuclear Data Tables. The project evolved from an ongoing comparison between available mass predictions and reports of newly measured masses of isotopes throughout the mass surface. These comparisons have highlighted a variety of features in current mass models which are responsible for predictions that diverge from masses determined experimentally. The need for a comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions was therefore apparent and the project was organized and began at the last mass conference (AMCO-VII). Project participants included: Pape and Anthony; Dussel, Caurier and Zuker; Möller and Nix; Möller, Myers, Swiatecki and Treiner; Comay, Kelson, and Zidon; Satpathy and Nayak; Tachibana, Uno, Yamada and Yamada; Spanier and Johansson; Jänecke and Masson; and Wapstra, Audi and Hoekstra. An overview of the new atomic mass predictions may be obtained by written request.

Cost Model Comparison: A Study of Internally and Commercially Developed Cost Models in Use by NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Garima

2011-01-01

NASA makes use of numerous cost models to accurately estimate the cost of various components of a mission - hardware, software, mission/ground operations - during the different stages of a mission's lifecycle. The purpose of this project was to survey these models and determine in which respects they are similar and in which they are different. The initial survey included a study of the cost drivers for each model, the form of each model (linear/exponential/other CER, range/point output, capable of risk/sensitivity analysis), and for what types of missions and for what phases of a mission lifecycle each model is capable of estimating cost. The models taken into consideration consisted of both those that were developed by NASA and those that were commercially developed: GSECT, NAFCOM, SCAT, QuickCost, PRICE, and SEER. Once the initial survey was completed, the next step in the project was to compare the cost models' capabilities in terms of Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements. This final comparison was then portrayed in a visual manner with Venn diagrams. All of the materials produced in the process of this study were then posted on the Ground Segment Team (GST) Wiki.

The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP): A Model-Data Comparison System for Evaluation of Coupled Biosphere-Atmosphere Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, Jim; Thornton, Peter E

2009-01-01

The need to capture important climate feebacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in new efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, now often referred to as Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results, suggesting that a more rigorous set of offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are warranted. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) providesmore » a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). C-LAMP provides feedback to the modeling community regarding model improvements and to the measurement community by suggesting new observational campaigns. C-LAMP Experiment 1 consists of a set of uncoupled simulations of terrestrial carbon models specifically designed to examine the ability of the models to reproduce surface carbon and energy fluxes at multiple sites and to exhibit the influence of climate variability, prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), nitrogen (N) deposition, and land cover change on projections of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 20th century. Experiment 2 consists of partially coupled simulations of the terrestrial carbon model with an active atmosphere model exchanging energy and moisture fluxes. In all experiments, atmospheric CO{sub 2} follows the prescribed historical trajectory from C{sup 4}MIP. In Experiment 2, the atmosphere model is forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and corresponding sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre; prescribed CO{sub 2} is radiatively active; and land, fossil fuel, and ocean CO{sub 2} fluxes are advected by the model. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3) in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): The CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons against Ameriflus site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO{sub 2} Enrichment (FACE) site measurements, and other datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). The C-LAMP diagnostics package was used to validate improvements to CASA and CN for use in the next generation model, CLM4. It is hoped that this effort will serve as a prototype for an international carbon-cycle model benchmarking activity for models being used for the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. More information about C-LAMP, the experimental protocol, performance metrics, output standards, and model-data comparisons from the CLM3-CASA and CLM3-CN models are available at http://www.climatemodeling.org/c-lamp.« less

Holding Accountability Models Accountable

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pyatte, Jeff A.

1974-01-01

This article provides an accurate account of the history of the Texarkana Project, the first attempt to demonstrate accountability in education by using the engineering model. Using the average per pupil expenditure as a basis for comparison, the cost of engineering in Texarkana is shown to be very high. (Author)

Discriminative Projection Selection Based Face Image Hashing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karabat, Cagatay; Erdogan, Hakan

Face image hashing is an emerging method used in biometric verification systems. In this paper, we propose a novel face image hashing method based on a new technique called discriminative projection selection. We apply the Fisher criterion for selecting the rows of a random projection matrix in a user-dependent fashion. Moreover, another contribution of this paper is to employ a bimodal Gaussian mixture model at the quantization step. Our simulation results on three different databases demonstrate that the proposed method has superior performance in comparison to previously proposed random projection based methods.

Comparison of water vapor from observations and models in the Asian Monsoon UTLS region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, C. E.; Clouser, B.; Gaeta, D. C.; Moyer, E. J.

2017-12-01

As part of the StratoClim campaign in July/August 2017, the Chicago Water Isotope Spectrometer (ChiWIS) made water vapor measurements from the mid-troposphere through the lower stratosphere (to 21 km altitude). We compare in-situ measurements with remote sensing observations and model projections both to validate measurements and to evalute the added value of high-precision in-situ sampling. Preliminary results and comparison with other StratoClim tracer measurements suggest that the UTLS region is highly structured, beyond what models or satellite instruments can capture, and that ChiWIS accurately captures these variations.

Comparing crop growth and carbon budgets simulated across AmeriFlux agricultural sites using the community land model (CLM)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improving process-based crop models is needed to achieve high fidelity forecasts of regional energy, water, and carbon exchange. However, most state-of-the-art Land Surface Models (LSMs) assessed in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison project (CMIP5) simulated crops as simple C3 or...

A Guide to Some Projections of LDC Food Security toward the End of the Twentieth Century.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fox, Glenn; Ruttan, Vernon H.

The results of studies that have calculated projections of food deficits for less developed countries (LDC's) toward the year 2000 are compared. Included in the comparison are: (1) reports entitled "The Global 2000 Report to the President,""The Future of the World Economy," and "The Model of International Relations in Agriculture"; (2) work done…

Composite Study Of Aerosol Long-Range Transport Events From East Asia And North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Waliser, D. E.; Guan, B.; Xavier, P.; Petch, J.; Klingaman, N. P.; Woolnough, S.

2011-12-01

While the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) exerts pronounced influences on global climate and weather systems, current general circulation models (GCMs) exhibit rather limited capability in representing this prominent tropical variability mode. Meanwhile, the fundamental physics of the MJO are still elusive. Given the central role of the diabatic heating for prevailing MJO theories and demands for reducing the model deficiencies in simulating the MJO, a global model inter-comparison project on diabatic processes and vertical heating structure associated with the MJO has been coordinated through a joint effort by the WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX YOTC MJO Task Force and GEWEX GASS Program. In this presentation, progress of this model inter-comparison project will be reported, with main focus on climate simulations from about 27 atmosphere-only and coupled GCMs. Vertical structures of heating and diabatic processes associated with the MJO based on multi-model simulations will be presented along with their reanalysis and satellite estimate counterparts. Key processes possibly responsible for a realistic simulation of the MJO, including moisture-convection interaction, gross moist stability, ocean coupling, and surface heat flux, will be discussed.

The Earthquake‐Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mai, P. Martin; Schorlemmer, Danijel; Page, Morgan T.; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Asano, Kimiyuki; Causse, Mathieu; Custodio, Susana; Fan, Wenyuan; Festa, Gaetano; Galis, Martin; Gallovic, Frantisek; Imperatori, Walter; Käser, Martin; Malytskyy, Dmytro; Okuwaki, Ryo; Pollitz, Fred; Passone, Luca; Razafindrakoto, Hoby N. T.; Sekiguchi, Haruko; Song, Seok Goo; Somala, Surendra N.; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Twardzik, Cedric; van Driel, Martin; Vyas, Jagdish C.; Wang, Rongjiang; Yagi, Yuji; Zielke, Olaf

2016-01-01

Finite‐fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time‐dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often exhibit remarkable dissimilarities. To address the uncertainties in earthquake‐source inversion methods and to understand strengths and weaknesses of the various approaches used, the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) project conducts a set of forward‐modeling exercises and inversion benchmarks. In this article, we describe the SIV strategy, the initial benchmarks, and current SIV results. Furthermore, we apply statistical tools for quantitative waveform comparison and for investigating source‐model (dis)similarities that enable us to rank the solutions, and to identify particularly promising source inversion approaches. All SIV exercises (with related data and descriptions) and statistical comparison tools are available via an online collaboration platform, and we encourage source modelers to use the SIV benchmarks for developing and testing new methods. We envision that the SIV efforts will lead to new developments for tackling the earthquake‐source imaging problem.

Hardware architecture for projective model calculation and false match refining using random sample consensus algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azimi, Ehsan; Behrad, Alireza; Ghaznavi-Ghoushchi, Mohammad Bagher; Shanbehzadeh, Jamshid

2016-11-01

The projective model is an important mapping function for the calculation of global transformation between two images. However, its hardware implementation is challenging because of a large number of coefficients with different required precisions for fixed point representation. A VLSI hardware architecture is proposed for the calculation of a global projective model between input and reference images and refining false matches using random sample consensus (RANSAC) algorithm. To make the hardware implementation feasible, it is proved that the calculation of the projective model can be divided into four submodels comprising two translations, an affine model and a simpler projective mapping. This approach makes the hardware implementation feasible and considerably reduces the required number of bits for fixed point representation of model coefficients and intermediate variables. The proposed hardware architecture for the calculation of a global projective model using the RANSAC algorithm was implemented using Verilog hardware description language and the functionality of the design was validated through several experiments. The proposed architecture was synthesized by using an application-specific integrated circuit digital design flow utilizing 180-nm CMOS technology as well as a Virtex-6 field programmable gate array. Experimental results confirm the efficiency of the proposed hardware architecture in comparison with software implementation.

Evaluation of Cirrus Cloud Simulations Using ARM Data - Development of a Case Study Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'C.Starr, David; Demoz, Belay; Lare, Andrew; Poellot, Michael; Sassen, Kenneth; Heymsfield, Andrew; Brown, Philip; Mace, Jay; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) provide an effective linkage in terms of parameters and scales between observations and the parametric treatments of clouds in global climate models (GCMs). They also represent the best understanding of the physical processes acting to determine cloud system lifecycle. The goal of this project is to improve state-of-the-art CRMs used for studies of cirrus clouds and to establish a relative calibration with GCMs through comparisons among CRMs, single column model (SCM) versions of the GCMs, and observations. This project will compare and evaluate a variety of CRMs and SCMs, under the auspices of the GEWEX Cloud Systems Study (GCSS) Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2), using ARM data acquired at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. This poster will report on progress in developing a suitable WG2 case study data set based on the September 26, 1996 ARM IOP case - the Hurricane Nora outflow case. The environmental data (input) will be described as well as the wealth of validating cloud observations. We plan to also show results of preliminary simulations. The science questions to be addressed derive significantly from results of the GCSS WG2 cloud model comparison projects, which will be briefly summarized.

Assessment and simulation of global terrestrial latent heat flux by synthesis of CMIP5 climate models and surface eddy covariance observations

Treesearch

Yunjun Yao; Shunlin Liang; Xianglan Li; Shaomin Liu; Jiquan Chen; Xiaotong Zhang; Kun Jia; Bo Jiang; Xianhong Xie; Simon Munier; Meng Liu; Jian Yu; Anders Lindroth; Andrej Varlagin; Antonio Raschi; Asko Noormets; Casimiro Pio; Georg Wohlfahrt; Ge Sun; Jean-Christophe Domec; Leonardo Montagnani; Magnus Lund; Moors Eddy; Peter D. Blanken; Thomas Grunwald; Sebastian Wolf; Vincenzo Magliulo

2016-01-01

The latent heat flux (LE) between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere is a major driver of the globalhydrological cycle. In this study, we evaluated LE simulations by 45 general circulation models (GCMs)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by a comparison...

A Comparison Study of Return Ratio-Based Academic Enrollment Forecasting Models. Professional File. Article 129, Spring 2013

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zan, Xinxing Anna; Yoon, Sang Won; Khasawneh, Mohammad; Srihari, Krishnaswami

2013-01-01

In an effort to develop a low-cost and user-friendly forecasting model to minimize forecasting error, we have applied average and exponentially weighted return ratios to project undergraduate student enrollment. We tested the proposed forecasting models with different sets of historical enrollment data, such as university-, school-, and…

Comparison of SWAT Model Water Balance Calibration Using NEXRAD and Surface Rain Gauge Data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The value of watershed-scale, water quality models to ecosystem management is increasingly evident as more programs adopt these tools to help assess the effectiveness of different management scenarios on the environment. The USDA-Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) is one such program whi...

Comparison of WinSLAMM Modeled Results with Monitored Bioinfiltration Data during Kansas City Green Infrastructure Demonstration Project

EPA Science Inventory

The Water Services Department (WSD) in Kansas City, Missouri (KCMO) has conducted extensive modeling and economic studies of its combined sewer system (CSS) over the last several years. A number of green infrastructure (GI) solutions were identified and constructed to reduce dis...

Comparison of Modeled Results for Kansas City Middle Blue River Green Infrastructure Pilot Project

EPA Science Inventory

The Water Services Department (WSD) in Kansas City, Missouri (KCMO) has conducted extensive modeling and economic studies of its combined sewer system (CSS) over the last several years. A number of green infrastructure (GI) solutions were identified and constructed to reduce dis...

Evaluating Forest Vegetation Simulator predictions for southern Appalachian upland hardwoods with a modified mortality model

Treesearch

Philip J. Radtke; Nathan D. Herring; David L. Loftis; Chad E. Keyser

2012-01-01

Prediction accuracy for projected basal area and trees per acre was assessed for the growth and yield model of the Forest Vegetation Simulator Southern Variant (FVS-Sn). Data for comparison with FVS-Sn predictions were compiled from a collection of n

The Skylab concentrated atmospheric radiation project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhn, P. M.; Marlatt, W. E.; Whitehead, V. S. (Principal Investigator)

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Comparison of several existing infrared radiative transfer models under somewhat controlled conditions and with atmospheric observations of Skylab's S191 and S192 radiometers illustrated that the models tend to over-compute atmospheric attenuation in the window region of the atmospheric infrared spectra.

What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Stephenson, David B.

2014-09-01

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.

A comparison of newborn stylized and tomographic models for dose assessment in paediatric radiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staton, R. J.; Pazik, F. D.; Nipper, J. C.; Williams, J. L.; Bolch, W. E.

2003-04-01

Establishment of organ doses from diagnostic and interventional examinations is a key component to quantifying the radiation risks from medical exposures and for formulating corresponding dose-reduction strategies. Radiation transport models of human anatomy provide a convenient method for simulating radiological examinations. At present, two classes of models exist: stylized mathematical models and tomographic voxel models. In the present study, organ dose comparisons are made for projection radiographs of both a stylized and a tomographic model of the newborn patient. Sixteen separate radiographs were simulated for each model at x-ray technique factors typical of newborn examinations: chest, abdomen, thorax and head views in the AP, PA, left LAT and right LAT projection orientation. For AP and PA radiographs of the torso (chest, abdomen and thorax views), the effective dose assessed for the tomographic model exceeds that for the stylized model with per cent differences ranging from 19% (AP abdominal view) to 43% AP chest view. In contrast, the effective dose for the stylized model exceeds that for the tomographic model for all eight lateral views including those of the head, with per cent differences ranging from 9% (LLAT chest view) to 51% (RLAT thorax view). While organ positioning differences do exist between the models, a major factor contributing to differences in effective dose is the models' exterior trunk shape. In the tomographic model, a more elliptical shape is seen thus providing for less tissue shielding for internal organs in the AP and PA directions, with corresponding increased tissue shielding in the lateral directions. This observation is opposite of that seen in comparisons of stylized and tomographic models of the adult.

The Impact of Detailed Snow Physics on the Simulation of Snow Cover and Subsurface Thermodynamics at Continental Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stieglitz, Marc; Ducharne, Agnes; Koster, Randy; Suarez, Max; Busalacchi, Antonio J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The three-layer snow model is coupled to the global catchment-based Land Surface Model (LSM) of the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) project, and the combined models are used to simulate the growth and ablation of snow cover over the North American continent for the period 1987-1988. The various snow processes included in the three-layer model, such as snow melting and re-freezing, dynamic changes in snow density, and snow insulating properties, are shown (through a comparison with the corresponding simulation using a much simpler snow model) to lead to an improved simulation of ground thermodynamics on the continental scale.

Does Specification Matter? Experiments with Simple Multiregional Probabilistic Population Projections

PubMed Central

Raymer, James; Abel, Guy J.; Rogers, Andrei

2012-01-01

Population projection models that introduce uncertainty are a growing subset of projection models in general. In this paper, we focus on the importance of decisions made with regard to the model specifications adopted. We compare the forecasts and prediction intervals associated with four simple regional population projection models: an overall growth rate model, a component model with net migration, a component model with in-migration and out-migration rates, and a multiregional model with destination-specific out-migration rates. Vector autoregressive models are used to forecast future rates of growth, birth, death, net migration, in-migration and out-migration, and destination-specific out-migration for the North, Midlands and South regions in England. They are also used to forecast different international migration measures. The base data represent a time series of annual data provided by the Office for National Statistics from 1976 to 2008. The results illustrate how both the forecasted subpopulation totals and the corresponding prediction intervals differ for the multiregional model in comparison to other simpler models, as well as for different assumptions about international migration. The paper ends end with a discussion of our results and possible directions for future research. PMID:23236221

OC5 Project Phase II: Validation of Global Loads of the DeepCwind Floating Semisubmersible Wind Turbine

DOE PAGES

Robertson, Amy N.; Wendt, Fabian; Jonkman, Jason M.; ...

2017-10-01

This paper summarizes the findings from Phase II of the Offshore Code Comparison, Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation project. The project is run under the International Energy Agency Wind Research Task 30, and is focused on validating the tools used for modeling offshore wind systems through the comparison of simulated responses of select system designs to physical test data. Validation activities such as these lead to improvement of offshore wind modeling tools, which will enable the development of more innovative and cost-effective offshore wind designs. For Phase II of the project, numerical models of the DeepCwind floating semisubmersible wind system weremore » validated using measurement data from a 1/50th-scale validation campaign performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands offshore wave basin. Validation of the models was performed by comparing the calculated ultimate and fatigue loads for eight different wave-only and combined wind/wave test cases against the measured data, after calibration was performed using free-decay, wind-only, and wave-only tests. The results show a decent estimation of both the ultimate and fatigue loads for the simulated results, but with a fairly consistent underestimation in the tower and upwind mooring line loads that can be attributed to an underestimation of wave-excitation forces outside the linear wave-excitation region, and the presence of broadband frequency excitation in the experimental measurements from wind. Participant results showed varied agreement with the experimental measurements based on the modeling approach used. Modeling attributes that enabled better agreement included: the use of a dynamic mooring model; wave stretching, or some other hydrodynamic modeling approach that excites frequencies outside the linear wave region; nonlinear wave kinematics models; and unsteady aerodynamics models. Also, it was observed that a Morison-only hydrodynamic modeling approach could create excessive pitch excitation and resulting tower loads in some frequency bands.« less

OC5 Project Phase II: Validation of Global Loads of the DeepCwind Floating Semisubmersible Wind Turbine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, Amy N.; Wendt, Fabian; Jonkman, Jason M.

This paper summarizes the findings from Phase II of the Offshore Code Comparison, Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation project. The project is run under the International Energy Agency Wind Research Task 30, and is focused on validating the tools used for modeling offshore wind systems through the comparison of simulated responses of select system designs to physical test data. Validation activities such as these lead to improvement of offshore wind modeling tools, which will enable the development of more innovative and cost-effective offshore wind designs. For Phase II of the project, numerical models of the DeepCwind floating semisubmersible wind system weremore » validated using measurement data from a 1/50th-scale validation campaign performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands offshore wave basin. Validation of the models was performed by comparing the calculated ultimate and fatigue loads for eight different wave-only and combined wind/wave test cases against the measured data, after calibration was performed using free-decay, wind-only, and wave-only tests. The results show a decent estimation of both the ultimate and fatigue loads for the simulated results, but with a fairly consistent underestimation in the tower and upwind mooring line loads that can be attributed to an underestimation of wave-excitation forces outside the linear wave-excitation region, and the presence of broadband frequency excitation in the experimental measurements from wind. Participant results showed varied agreement with the experimental measurements based on the modeling approach used. Modeling attributes that enabled better agreement included: the use of a dynamic mooring model; wave stretching, or some other hydrodynamic modeling approach that excites frequencies outside the linear wave region; nonlinear wave kinematics models; and unsteady aerodynamics models. Also, it was observed that a Morison-only hydrodynamic modeling approach could create excessive pitch excitation and resulting tower loads in some frequency bands.« less

An Object-Based Approach to Evaluation of Climate Variability Projections and Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammann, C. M.; Brown, B.; Kalb, C. P.; Bullock, R.

2017-12-01

Evaluations of the performance of earth system model predictions and projections are of critical importance to enhance usefulness of these products. Such evaluations need to address specific concerns depending on the system and decisions of interest; hence, evaluation tools must be tailored to inform about specific issues. Traditional approaches that summarize grid-based comparisons of analyses and models, or between current and future climate, often do not reveal important information about the models' performance (e.g., spatial or temporal displacements; the reason behind a poor score) and are unable to accommodate these specific information needs. For example, summary statistics such as the correlation coefficient or the mean-squared error provide minimal information to developers, users, and decision makers regarding what is "right" and "wrong" with a model. New spatial and temporal-spatial object-based tools from the field of weather forecast verification (where comparisons typically focus on much finer temporal and spatial scales) have been adapted to more completely answer some of the important earth system model evaluation questions. In particular, the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) tool and its temporal (three-dimensional) extension (MODE-TD) have been adapted for these evaluations. More specifically, these tools can be used to address spatial and temporal displacements in projections of El Nino-related precipitation and/or temperature anomalies, ITCZ-associated precipitation areas, atmospheric rivers, seasonal sea-ice extent, and other features of interest. Examples of several applications of these tools in a climate context will be presented, using output of the CESM large ensemble. In general, these tools provide diagnostic information about model performance - accounting for spatial, temporal, and intensity differences - that cannot be achieved using traditional (scalar) model comparison approaches. Thus, they can provide more meaningful information that can be used in decision-making and planning. Future extensions and applications of these tools in a climate context will be considered.

Comparison of a species distribution model and a process model from a hierarchical perspective to quantify effects of projected climate change on tree species

Treesearch

Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jacob S. Fraser

2015-01-01

Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating across a hierarchy of ecological scales. Process and species distribution models have been developed emphasizing forces at different scales. Understanding model agreement across hierarchical scales provides perspective on prediction uncertainty and ultimately enables policy makers and managers to...

SeaWiFS technical report series. Volume 11: Analysis of selected orbit propagation models for the SeaWiFS mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patt, Frederick S.; Hoisington, Charles M.; Gregg, Watson W.; Coronado, Patrick L.; Hooker, Stanford B. (Editor); Firestone, Elaine R. (Editor); Indest, A. W. (Editor)

1993-01-01

An analysis of orbit propagation models was performed by the Mission Operations element of the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) Project, which has overall responsibility for the instrument scheduling. The orbit propagators selected for this analysis are widely available general perturbations models. The analysis includes both absolute accuracy determination and comparisons of different versions of the models. The results show that all of the models tested meet accuracy requirements for scheduling and data acquisition purposes. For internal Project use the SGP4 propagator, developed by the North American Air Defense (NORAD) Command, has been selected. This model includes atmospheric drag effects and, therefore, provides better accuracy. For High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) ground stations, which have less stringent accuracy requirements, the publicly available Brouwer-Lyddane models are recommended. The SeaWiFS Project will make available portable source code for a version of this model developed by the Data Capture Facility (DCF).

Critical success factors in infrastructure projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakaria, Siti Fairus; Zin, Rosli Mohamad; Mohamad, Ismail; Balubaid, Saeed; Mydin, Shaik Hussein; Mohd Rahim, E. M. Roodienyanto

2017-11-01

Construction of infrastructure project is different from buildings. The main difference is term of project site where infrastructure project need to command a long stretch while building mostly confine to a limited area. As such factors that are critical to infrastructure project may not be that significant to building project and vice versa. Flood mitigation can be classified under infrastructure projects under which their developments are planned by the government with the specific objective to reduce or avoid the negative effects of flood to the environment and livelihood. One of the indicators in project success is delay. The impact of project delay in construction industry is significant that it decelerates the projects implementation, specifically the government projects. This study attempted to identify and compare the success factors between infrastructure and building projects, as such comparison rarely found in the current literature. A model of flood mitigation projects' success factors was developed by merging the experts' views and reports from the existing literature. The experts' views were obtained from the responses to open-ended questions on the required fundamentals to achieve successful completion of flood mitigation projects. An affinity analysis was applied to these responses to develop the model. The developed model was then compared to the established success factors found in building project, extracted from the previous studies to identify the similarities and differences between the two models. This study would assist the government and construction players to become more effective in constructing successful flood mitigation projects for the future practice in a flood-prone country like Malaysia.

Definition of the Semisubmersible Floating System for Phase II of OC4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, A.; Jonkman, J.; Masciola, M.

Phase II of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continuation (OC4) project involved modeling of a semisubmersible floating offshore wind system as shown below. This report documents the specifications of the floating system, which were needed by the OC4 participants for building aero-hydro-servo-elastic models.

Comparison between a Terramechanics Model and a Continuum Soil Model Implemented within the Absolute Nodal Coordinate Formulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

Chicago, IL 60607, USA Email: fosterc@uic.edu Paramsothy Jayakumar U.S. Army RDECOM-TARDEC Warren, MI 48397-5000, USA...Mike Letherwood; Paramsothy Jayakumar ; Guangbu Li; Ulysses Contreras; Craig Foster 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7

Verification of the New FAST v8 Capabilities for the Modeling of Fixed-Bottom Offshore Wind Turbines: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barahona, B.; Jonkman, J.; Damiani, R.

2014-12-01

Coupled dynamic analysis has an important role in the design of offshore wind turbines because the systems are subject to complex operating conditions from the combined action of waves and wind. The aero-hydro-servo-elastic tool FAST v8 is framed in a novel modularization scheme that facilitates such analysis. Here, we present the verification of new capabilities of FAST v8 to model fixed-bottom offshore wind turbines. We analyze a series of load cases with both wind and wave loads and compare the results against those from the previous international code comparison projects-the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 23 Subtask 2 Offshoremore » Code Comparison Collaboration (OC3) and the IEA Wind Task 30 OC3 Continued (OC4) projects. The verification is performed using the NREL 5-MW reference turbine supported by monopile, tripod, and jacket substructures. The substructure structural-dynamics models are built within the new SubDyn module of FAST v8, which uses a linear finite-element beam model with Craig-Bampton dynamic system reduction. This allows the modal properties of the substructure to be synthesized and coupled to hydrodynamic loads and tower dynamics. The hydrodynamic loads are calculated using a new strip theory approach for multimember substructures in the updated HydroDyn module of FAST v8. These modules are linked to the rest of FAST through the new coupling scheme involving mapping between module-independent spatial discretizations and a numerically rigorous implicit solver. The results show that the new structural dynamics, hydrodynamics, and coupled solutions compare well to the results from the previous code comparison projects.« less

Sequential data access with Oracle and Hadoop: a performance comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranowski, Zbigniew; Canali, Luca; Grancher, Eric

2014-06-01

The Hadoop framework has proven to be an effective and popular approach for dealing with "Big Data" and, thanks to its scaling ability and optimised storage access, Hadoop Distributed File System-based projects such as MapReduce or HBase are seen as candidates to replace traditional relational database management systems whenever scalable speed of data processing is a priority. But do these projects deliver in practice? Does migrating to Hadoop's "shared nothing" architecture really improve data access throughput? And, if so, at what cost? Authors answer these questions-addressing cost/performance as well as raw performance- based on a performance comparison between an Oracle-based relational database and Hadoop's distributed solutions like MapReduce or HBase for sequential data access. A key feature of our approach is the use of an unbiased data model as certain data models can significantly favour one of the technologies tested.

On the Hydrologic Adjustment of Climate-Model Projections: The Potential Pitfall of Potential Evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul C.D.; Dunne, Krista A.

2011-01-01

Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement ("downscaling"), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median -11%) caused by the hydrologic model’s apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen–Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors’ findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climate-change impacts on water.

Metal mixture modeling evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches.

PubMed

Farley, Kevin J; Meyer, Joseph S; Balistrieri, Laurie S; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Janssen, Colin R; Kamo, Masashi; Lofts, Stephen; Mebane, Christopher A; Naito, Wataru; Ryan, Adam C; Santore, Robert C; Tipping, Edward

2015-04-01

As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the US Geological Survey (USA), HDR|HydroQual (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (United Kingdom) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided in the present study. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by the Windermere humic aqueous model [WHAM]; specific or nonspecific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single vs multiple types of binding sites on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong interrelationships among the model parameters (binding constants, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed. © 2014 SETAC.

Sequence of the tomato chloroplast DNA and evolutionary comparison of solanaceous plastid genomes.

PubMed

Kahlau, Sabine; Aspinall, Sue; Gray, John C; Bock, Ralph

2006-08-01

Tomato, Solanum lycopersicum (formerly Lycopersicon esculentum), has long been one of the classical model species of plant genetics. More recently, solanaceous species have become a model of evolutionary genomics, with several EST projects and a tomato genome project having been initiated. As a first contribution toward deciphering the genetic information of tomato, we present here the complete sequence of the tomato chloroplast genome (plastome). The size of this circular genome is 155,461 base pairs (bp), with an average AT content of 62.14%. It contains 114 genes and conserved open reading frames (ycfs). Comparison with the previously sequenced plastid DNAs of Nicotiana tabacum and Atropa belladonna reveals patterns of plastid genome evolution in the Solanaceae family and identifies varying degrees of conservation of individual plastid genes. In addition, we discovered several new sites of RNA editing by cytidine-to-uridine conversion. A detailed comparison of editing patterns in the three solanaceous species highlights the dynamics of RNA editing site evolution in chloroplasts. To assess the level of intraspecific plastome variation in tomato, the plastome of a second tomato cultivar was sequenced. Comparison of the two genotypes (IPA-6, bred in South America, and Ailsa Craig, bred in Europe) revealed no nucleotide differences, suggesting that the plastomes of modern tomato cultivars display very little, if any, sequence variation.

Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farley, Kevin J.; Meyer, Joe; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; DeSchamphelaere, Karl; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Janssen, Colin; Kamo, Masashi; Lofts, Steve; Mebane, Christopher A.; Naito, Wataru; Ryan, Adam C.; Santore, Robert C.; Tipping, Edward

2015-01-01

As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the U.S. Geological Survey (USA), HDR⎪HydroQual, Inc. (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME Workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided herein. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by WHAM; specific or non-specific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors and/or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single versus multiple types of binding site on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong inter-relationships among the model parameters (log KM values, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed.

Size Comparison: Three Generations of Mars Rovers

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-11-19

Full-scale models of three generations of NASA Mars rovers show the increase in size from the Sojourner rover of the Mars Pathfinder project, to the twin Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity, to the Mars Science Laboratory rover.

Comparison of WinSLAMM Modeled Results with Monitored Biofiltration Data

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA’s Green Infrastructure Demonstration project in Kansas City incorporates both small scale individual biofiltration device monitoring, along with large scale watershed monitoring. The test watershed (100 acres) is saturated with green infrastructure components (includin...

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P. J.; Rötter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L. A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Osborne, T. M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J. W.; Williams, J. R.; Wolf, J.

2013-09-01

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models are difficult. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking.

Comparisons of modeled height predictions to ocular height estimates

Treesearch

W.A. Bechtold; S.J. Zarnoch; W.G. Burkman

1998-01-01

Equations used by USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis projects to predict individual tree heights on the basis of species and d.b.h. were improved by the addition of mean overstory height. However, ocular estimates of total height by field crews were more accurate than the statistically improved models, especially for hardwood species. Height predictions...

Comparison of WEPP and APEX runoff and erosion prediction at field scale in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) are process-based models that can predict spatial and temporal distributions of erosion for hillslopes and watersheds. This study applies the WEPP model to predict runoff and erosion for a 35-ha fie...

Assessing long-term hydrologic impact of climate change using ensemble approach and comparison with Global Gridded Model-A case study on Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Potential impacts of climate change on hydrologic components of Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed were assessed using climate datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Historical and future ensembles of downscaled precipitation an...

Comparison of Three Optical Methods for Measuring Model Deformation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burner, A. W.; Fleming, G. A.; Hoppe, J. C.

2000-01-01

The objective of this paper is to compare the current state-of-the-art of the following three optical techniques under study by NASA for measuring model deformation in wind tunnels: (1) video photogrammetry, (2) projection moire interferometry, and (3) the commercially available Optotrak system. An objective comparison of these three techniques should enable the selection of the best technique for a particular test undertaken at various NASA facilities. As might be expected, no one technique is best for all applications. The techniques are also not necessarily mutually exclusive and in some cases can be complementary to one another.

Collaborative testing of turbulence models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradshaw, Peter; Launder, Brian E.; Lumley, John L.

1991-01-01

A review is given of an ongoing international project, in which data from experiments on, and simulations of, turbulent flows are distributed to developers of (time-averaged) engineering turbulence models. The predictions of each model are sent to the organizers and redistributed to all the modelers, plus some experimentalists and other experts (total approx. 120), for comment. The 'reaction time' of modelers has proved to be much longer than anticipated, partly because the comparisons with data have prompted many modelers to improve their models or numerics.

Improvements in approaches to forecasting and evaluation techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherhead, Elizabeth

2014-05-01

The US is embarking on an experiment to make significant and sustained improvements in weather forecasting. The effort stems from a series of community conversations that recognized the rapid advancements in observations, modeling and computing techniques in the academic, governmental and private sectors. The new directions and initial efforts will be summarized, including information on possibilities for international collaboration. Most new projects are scheduled to start in the last half of 2014. Several advancements include ensemble forecasting with global models, and new sharing of computing resources. Newly developed techniques for evaluating weather forecast models will be presented in detail. The approaches use statistical techniques that incorporate pair-wise comparisons of forecasts with observations and account for daily auto-correlation to assess appropriate uncertainty in forecast changes. Some of the new projects allow for international collaboration, particularly on the research components of the projects.

Evaluation of simulated ocean carbon in the CMIP5 earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, James; Brockmann, Patrick; Seferian, Roland; Servonnat, Jérôme; Bopp, Laurent

2013-04-01

We maintain a centralized model output archive containing output from the previous generation of Earth System Models (ESMs), 7 models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment. Output is in a common format located on a centralized server and is publicly available through a web interface. Through the same interface, LSCE/IPSL has also made available output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the foundation for the ongoing IPCC AR5 assessment. The latter includes ocean biogeochemical fields from more than 13 ESMs. Modeling partners across 3 EU projects refer to the combined AR4-AR5 archive and comparison as OCMIP5, building on previous phases of OCMIP (Ocean Carbon Cycle Intercomparison Project) and making a clear link to IPCC AR5 (CMIP5). While now focusing on assessing the latest generation of results (AR5, CMIP5), this effort is also able to put them in context (AR4). For model comparison and evaluation, we have also stored computed derived variables (e.g., those needed to assess ocean acidification) and key fields regridded to a common 1°x1° grid, thus complementing the standard CMIP5 archive. The combined AR4-AR5 output (OCMIP5) has been used to compute standard quantitative metrics, both global and regional, and those have been synthesized with summary diagrams. In addition, for key biogeochemical fields we have deconvolved spatiotemporal components of the mean square error in order to constrain which models go wrong where. Here we will detail results from these evaluations which have exploited gridded climatological data. The archive, interface, and centralized evaluation provide a solid technical foundation, upon which collaboration and communication is being broadened in the ocean biogeochemical modeling community. Ultimately we aim to encourage wider use of the OCMIP5 archive.

Role of Internal Variability in Surface Temperature and Precipitation Change Uncertainties over India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R.

2017-12-01

There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions.

On the hydrologic adjustment of climate-model projections: The potential pitfall of potential evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

2011-01-01

Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement ("downscaling"), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median 211%) caused by the hydrologic model's apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen-Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors' findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climatechange impacts on water. Copyright ?? 2011, Paper 15-001; 35,952 words, 3 Figures, 0 Animations, 1 Tables.

Inverter performance comparison at PVUSA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, Brian K.; Stolte, Walter J.; Reyes, Antonio B.

1996-01-01

The paper is a summary of the Photovoltaics for Utility Scale Applications (PVUSA) Project's experience with procurement, testing, operation and maintenance of photovoltaic (PV) power conditioning units (PCUs) at the PVUSA Davis and Kerman sites. Brief descriptions of each of five different PCU models are included to explain tests and operational characteristics. A comparison of the PCUs' performances is presented, and conclusions are offered. Further details are in a forthcoming PVUSA report on PCUs and Power Quality [1].

Cost-effectiveness of the Health X Project for tuberculosis control in China.

PubMed

Wang, W-B; Zhang, H; Petzold, M; Zhao, Q; Xu, B; Zhao, G-M

2014-08-01

Between 2002 and 2008, China's National Tuberculosis Control Programme created the Health X Project, financed in part by a World Bank loan, with additional funding from the UK Department for International Development. To assess the cost-effectiveness of the Project and its impact from a financial point of view on tuberculosis (TB) control in China. A decision-analytic model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the Project. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of different scenarios and assumptions on results. The primary outcome of the study was cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) saved and incremental DALYs saved. In comparison with alternative scenario 1, the Project detected 1.6 million additional cases, 44 000 deaths were prevented and a total of 18.4 million DALYs saved. The Project strategies cost approximately Chinese yuan (CNY) 953 per DALY saved (vs. CNY1140 in the control areas), and saved an estimated CNY17.5 billion in comparison with the unchanged alternative scenario (scenario 1) or CNY10.8 billion with the control scenario (scenario 2). The Project strategies were affordable and of comparable cost-effectiveness to those of other developing countries. The results also provide strong support for the existing policy of scaling up DOTS in China.

Comparison of different numerical treatments for x-ray phase tomography of soft tissue from differential phase projections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pelliccia, Daniele; Vaz, Raquel; Svalbe, Imants

X-ray imaging of soft tissue is made difficult by their low absorbance. The use of x-ray phase imaging and tomography can significantly enhance the detection of these tissues and several approaches have been proposed to this end. Methods such as analyzer-based imaging or grating interferometry produce differential phase projections that can be used to reconstruct the 3D distribution of the sample refractive index. We report on the quantitative comparison of three different methods to obtain x-ray phase tomography with filtered back-projection from differential phase projections in the presence of noise. The three procedures represent different numerical approaches to solve themore » same mathematical problem, namely phase retrieval and filtered back-projection. It is found that obtaining individual phase projections and subsequently applying a conventional filtered back-projection algorithm produces the best results for noisy experimental data, when compared with other procedures based on the Hilbert transform. The algorithms are tested on simulated phantom data with added noise and the predictions are confirmed by experimental data acquired using a grating interferometer. The experiment is performed on unstained adult zebrafish, an important model organism for biomedical studies. The method optimization described here allows resolution of weak soft tissue features, such as muscle fibers.« less

Break-up of Gondwana and opening of the South Atlantic: Review of existing plate tectonic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ghidella, M.E.; Lawver, L.A.; Gahagan, L.M.

2007-01-01

each model. We also plot reconstructions at four selected epochs for all models using the same projection and scale to facilitate comparison. The diverse simplifying assumptions that need to be made in every case regarding plate fragmentation to account for the numerous syn-rift basins and periods of stretching are strong indicators that rigid plate tectonics is too simple a model for the present problem.

Comparison of microstickies measurement methods. Part I, sample preparation and measurement methods

Treesearch

Mahendra R. Doshi; Angeles Blanco; Carlos Negro; Gilles M. Dorris; Carlos C. Castro; Axel Hamann; R. Daniel Haynes; Carl Houtman; Karen Scallon; Hans-Joachim Putz; Hans Johansson; R.A. Venditti; K. Copeland; H.-M. Chang

2003-01-01

Recently, we completed a project on the comparison of macrostickies measurement methods. Based on the success of the project, we decided to embark on this new project on comparison of microstickies measurement methods. When we started this project, there were some concerns and doubts principally due to the lack of an accepted definition of microstickies. However, we...

Lifting SU(2) spin networks to projected spin networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dupuis, Maiete; Livine, Etera R.

2010-09-15

Projected spin network states are the canonical basis of quantum states of geometry for the recent EPRL-FK spinfoam models for quantum gravity introduced by Engle-Pereira-Rovelli-Livine and Freidel-Krasnov. They are functionals of both the Lorentz connection and the time-normal field. We analyze in detail the map from these projected spin networks to the standard SU(2) spin networks of loop quantum gravity. We show that this map is not one to one and that the corresponding ambiguity is parameterized by the Immirzi parameter. We conclude with a comparison of the scalar products between projected spin networks and SU(2) spin network states.

Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crimp, Steven; Jin, Huidong; Kokic, Philip; Bakar, Shuvo; Nicholls, Neville

2018-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change has already been shown to effect the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and seasonality of extreme climate events. Understanding these changes is an important step in determining exposure, vulnerability and focus for adaptation. In an attempt to support adaptation decision-making we have examined statistical modelling techniques to improve the representation of global climate model (GCM) derived projections of minimum temperature extremes (frosts) in Australia. We examine the spatial changes in minimum temperature extreme metrics (e.g. monthly and seasonal frost frequency etc.), for a region exhibiting the strongest station trends in Australia, and compare these changes with minimum temperature extreme metrics derived from 10 GCMs, from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) datasets, and via statistical downscaling. We compare the observed trends with those derived from the "raw" GCM minimum temperature data as well as examine whether quantile matching (QM) or spatio-temporal (spTimerQM) modelling with Quantile Matching can be used to improve the correlation between observed and simulated extreme minimum temperatures. We demonstrate, that the spTimerQM modelling approach provides correlations with observed daily minimum temperatures for the period August to November of 0.22. This represents an almost fourfold improvement over either the "raw" GCM or QM results. The spTimerQM modelling approach also improves correlations with observed monthly frost frequency statistics to 0.84 as opposed to 0.37 and 0.81 for the "raw" GCM and QM results respectively. We apply the spatio-temporal model to examine future extreme minimum temperature projections for the period 2016 to 2048. The spTimerQM modelling results suggest the persistence of current levels of frost risk out to 2030, with the evidence of continuing decadal variation.

Defining stem profile model for wood valuation of red pine in Ontario and Michigan with consideration of stand density influence on tree taper

Treesearch

W. T. Zakrzewski; M. Penner; D. W. MacFarlane

2007-01-01

As part of the Canada-United States Great Lakes Stem Profile Modelling Project, established to support the local timber production process and to enable cross-border comparisons of timber volumes, here we present results of fitting Zakrzewski's (1999) stem profile model for red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) growing in Michigan, United States, and...

Physics Parameterization for Seasonal Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

comparison Project, a joint effort between the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Program and the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud...unified” representation of the water cycle in the model. One such area is the correspondence between diagnosed cloud cover and prognostic cloud

A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and fire management utility of three data sources in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

LaWen T. Hollingsworth; Laurie L. Kurth; Bernard R. Parresol; Roger D. Ottmar; Susan J. Prichard

2012-01-01

Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation...

Coronal Physics and the Chandra Emission Line Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brickhouse, N. S.; Drake, J. J.

2000-01-01

With the launch of the Chandra X-ray Observatory, high resolution X-ray spectroscopy of cosmic sources has begun. Early, deep observations of three stellar coronal sources Capella, Procyon, and HR 1099 are providing not only invaluable calibration data, but also benchmarks for plasma spectral models. These models are needed to interpret data from stellar coronae, galaxies and clusters of galaxies, supernova, remnants and other astrophysical sources. They have been called into question in recent years as problems with understanding low resolution ASCA and moderate resolution Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer Satellite (EUVE) data have arisen. The Emission Line Project is a collaborative effort, to improve the models, with Phase I being the comparison of models with observed spectra of Capella, Procyon, and HR 1099. Goals of these comparisons are (1) to determine and verify accurate and robust diagnostics and (2) to identify and prioritize issues in fundamental spectroscopy which will require further theoretical and/or laboratory work. A critical issue in exploiting the coronal data for these purposes is to understand the extent, to which common simplifying assumptions (coronal equilibrium, negligible optical depth) apply. We will discuss recent, advances in our understanding of stellar coronae, in this context.

Lifetime cost effectiveness of a through-school nutrition and physical programme: Project Energize.

PubMed

Rush, Elaine; Obolonkin, Victor; McLennan, Stephanie; Graham, David; Harris, James D; Mernagh, Paul; Weston, Adéle R

2014-01-01

Project Energize, a multicomponent through-school physical activity and nutrition programme, is delivered to all primary school children in the Waikato region. The programme aim is to improve the overall health and reduce the rate of weight gain of all Waikato primary school children. An existing economic model was used to extrapolate the programme effects, initial costs, lifetime health treatment cost structures, quality-adjusted-life-years gained and increased life expectancy to the general and Māori child population of New Zealand. In March 2011, a sample of 2474 younger (7.58 ± 0.57 years, mean ± SD) and 2330 older (10.30 ± 0.51 years) children (36% Māori) attending Energize schools had body mass index measured and compared using mixed effect modelling with unEnergized comparison children from 2004 and 2006 from the same region. In 2011 the median body mass index reduction compared with the comparison younger children was -0.504 (90% CI -0.435 to -0.663) kg/m(2) and in the older children -0.551 (-0.456 to -0.789) kg/m(2). In 2010 there were 42,067 children attending Energize schools and in the same year NZ$1,891,175 was spent to deliver the programme; a cost of $44.96/child/year. Compared to the comparison children the increment in cost/quality-adjusted-life-year gained was $30,438 for the younger and $24,690 for the older children, and lower for Māori (younger $28,241, older $22,151) and for the middle socioeconomic status schools ($23,211, $17,891). Project Energize would improve quality and length of life and when compared with other obesity prevention programmes previously assessed with this model, it would be relatively cost-effective from the health treatment payer's perspective.

International Collaboration on Spent Fuel Disposition in Crystalline Media: FY17 Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yifeng; Hadgu, Teklu; Kainina, Elena

Active participation in international R&D is crucial for achieving the Spent Fuel Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) long-term goals of conducting “experiments to fill data needs and confirm advanced modeling approaches” and of having a “robust modeling and experimental basis for evaluation of multiple disposal system options” (by 2020). DOE’s Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) has developed a strategic plan to advance cooperation with international partners. The international collaboration on the evaluation of crystalline disposal media at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in FY17 focused on the collaboration through the Development of Coupled Models and their Validation against Experiments (DECOVALEX-2019) project.more » The DECOVALEX project is an international research and model comparison collaboration, initiated in 1992, for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. SNL has been participating in three tasks of the DECOVALEX project: Task A. Modeling gas injection experiments (ENGINEER), Task C. Modeling groundwater recovery experiment in tunnel (GREET), and Task F. Fluid inclusion and movement in the tight rock (FINITO).« less

Results of the Greenland ice sheet model initialisation experiments: ISMIP6 - initMIP-Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin; Beckley, Matthew

2017-04-01

Ice sheet model initialisation has a large effect on projected future sea-level contributions and gives rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this intercomparison exercise for the continental-scale Greenland ice sheet is therefore to compare, evaluate and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community. The initMIP-Greenland project is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). The experimental set-up has been designed to allow comparison of the initial present-day state of the Greenland ice sheet between participating models and against observations. Furthermore, the initial states are tested with two schematic forward experiments to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss results that highlight the wide diversity of data sets, boundary conditions and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rainer, Leo I.; Hoeschele, Marc A.; Apte, Michael G.

This report addresses the results of detailed monitoring completed under Program Element 6 of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's High Performance Commercial Building Systems (HPCBS) PIER program. The purpose of the Energy Simulations and Projected State-Wide Energy Savings project is to develop reasonable energy performance and cost models for high performance relocatable classrooms (RCs) across California climates. A key objective of the energy monitoring was to validate DOE2 simulations for comparison to initial DOE2 performance projections. The validated DOE2 model was then used to develop statewide savings projections by modeling base case and high performance RC operation in the 16 Californiamore » climate zones. The primary objective of this phase of work was to utilize detailed field monitoring data to modify DOE2 inputs and generate performance projections based on a validated simulation model. Additional objectives include the following: (1) Obtain comparative performance data on base case and high performance HVAC systems to determine how they are operated, how they perform, and how the occupants respond to the advanced systems. This was accomplished by installing both HVAC systems side-by-side (i.e., one per module of a standard two module, 24 ft by 40 ft RC) on the study RCs and switching HVAC operating modes on a weekly basis. (2) Develop projected statewide energy and demand impacts based on the validated DOE2 model. (3) Develop cost effectiveness projections for the high performance HVAC system in the 16 California climate zones.« less

The Projected Impacts to Clark County and Local Governmental Public Safety Agencies Resulting from the Transportation of High-Level Nuclear Waste to Yucca Mountain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mushkatel, A.H.; Conway, S.; Navis, I.

2006-07-01

This paper focuses on the difficulties of projecting fiscal impacts to public safety agencies from the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The efforts made by Clark County Nevada, to develop a fiscal model of impacts for public safety agencies are described in this paper. Some of the difficulties in constructing a fiscal model of impacts for the entire 24 year high-level nuclear waste transportation shipping campaign are identified, and a refined methodology is provided to accomplish this task. Finally, a comparison of the fiscal impact projections for public safety agencies that Clark County developed in 2001,more » with those done in 2005 is discussed, and the fiscal impact cost projections for the entire 24 year transportation campaign are provided. (authors)« less

The Baselines Project: Establishing Reference Environmental Conditions for Marine Habitats in the Gulf of Mexico using Forecast Models and Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolliff, J. K.; Gould, R. W.; deRada, S.; Teague, W. J.; Wijesekera, H. W.

2012-12-01

We provide an overview of the NASA-funded project, "High-Resolution Subsurface Physical and Optical Property Fields in the Gulf of Mexico: Establishing Baselines and Assessment Tools for Resource Managers." Data assimilative models, analysis fields, and multiple satellite data streams were used to construct temperature and photon flux climatologies for the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary (FGBNMS) and similar habitats in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico where geologic features provide a platform for unique coral reef ecosystems. Comparison metrics of the products to in situ data collected during complimentary projects are also examined. Similarly, high-resolution satellite-data streams and advanced processing techniques were used to establish baseline suspended sediment load and turbidity conditions in selected northern Gulf of Mexico estuaries. The results demonstrate the feasibility of blending models and data into accessible web-based analysis products for resource managers, policy makers, and the public.

Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses to understand differences in process-based snow models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Martyn; Essery, Richard

2017-04-01

When faced with the complex and interdisciplinary challenge of building process-based land models, different modelers make different decisions at different points in the model development process. These modeling decisions are generally based on several considerations, including fidelity (e.g., what approaches faithfully simulate observed processes), complexity (e.g., which processes should be represented explicitly), practicality (e.g., what is the computational cost of the model simulations; are there sufficient resources to implement the desired modeling concepts), and data availability (e.g., is there sufficient data to force and evaluate models). Consequently the research community, comprising modelers of diverse background, experience, and modeling philosophy, has amassed a wide range of models, which differ in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. Model comparison studies have been undertaken to explore model differences, but have not been able to meaningfully attribute inter-model differences in predictive ability to individual model components because there are often too many structural and implementation differences among the different models considered. As a consequence, model comparison studies to date have provided limited insight into the causes of differences in model behavior, and model development has often relied on the inspiration and experience of individual modelers rather than on a systematic analysis of model shortcomings. This presentation will summarize the use of "multiple-hypothesis" modeling frameworks to understand differences in process-based snow models. Multiple-hypothesis frameworks define a master modeling template, and include a a wide variety of process parameterizations and spatial configurations that are used in existing models. Such frameworks provide the capability to decompose complex models into the individual decisions that are made as part of model development, and evaluate each decision in isolation. It is hence possible to attribute differences in system-scale model predictions to individual modeling decisions, providing scope to mimic the behavior of existing models, understand why models differ, characterize model uncertainty, and identify productive pathways to model improvement. Results will be presented applying multiple hypothesis frameworks to snow model comparison projects, including PILPS, SnowMIP, and the upcoming ESM-SnowMIP project.

Multi-attribute criteria applied to electric generation energy system analysis LDRD.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuswa, Glenn W.; Tsao, Jeffrey Yeenien; Drennen, Thomas E.

2005-10-01

This report began with a Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project to improve Sandia National Laboratories multidisciplinary capabilities in energy systems analysis. The aim is to understand how various electricity generating options can best serve needs in the United States. The initial product is documented in a series of white papers that span a broad range of topics, including the successes and failures of past modeling studies, sustainability, oil dependence, energy security, and nuclear power. Summaries of these projects are included here. These projects have provided a background and discussion framework for the Energy Systems Analysis LDRD team to carrymore » out an inter-comparison of many of the commonly available electric power sources in present use, comparisons of those options, and efforts needed to realize progress towards those options. A computer aid has been developed to compare various options based on cost and other attributes such as technological, social, and policy constraints. The Energy Systems Analysis team has developed a multi-criteria framework that will allow comparison of energy options with a set of metrics that can be used across all technologies. This report discusses several evaluation techniques and introduces the set of criteria developed for this LDRD.« less

Towards Extending Forward Kinematic Models on Hyper-Redundant Manipulator to Cooperative Bionic Arms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Inderjeet; Lakhal, Othman; Merzouki, Rochdi

2017-01-01

Forward Kinematics is a stepping stone towards finding an inverse solution and subsequently a dynamic model of a robot. Hence a study and comparison of various Forward Kinematic Models (FKMs) is necessary for robot design. This paper deals with comparison of three FKMs on the same hyper-redundant Compact Bionic Handling Assistant (CBHA) manipulator under same conditions. The aim of this study is to project on modeling cooperative bionic manipulators. Two of these methods are quantitative methods, Arc Geometry HTM (Homogeneous Transformation Matrix) Method and Dual Quaternion Method, while the other one is Hybrid Method which uses both quantitative as well as qualitative approach. The methods are compared theoretically and experimental results are discussed to add further insight to the comparison. HTM is the widely used and accepted technique, is taken as reference and trajectory deviation in other techniques are compared with respect to HTM. Which method allows obtaining an accurate kinematic behavior of the CBHA, controlled in the real-time.

ExpoCast Framework for Rapid Exposure Forecasts (ISES ExpoDat symposium presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. E.P.A. ExpoCast project uses high throughput exposure models (simulation) and any easily-obtained exposure heuristics to generate forward predictions of potential exposures from chemical properties. By comparison with exposures inferred via reverse pharmacokinetic modeli...

Detailed Modeling of Distillation Technologies for Closed-Loop Water Recovery Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allada, Rama Kumar; Lange, Kevin E.; Anderson, Molly S.

2011-01-01

Detailed chemical process simulations are a useful tool in designing and optimizing complex systems and architectures for human life support. Dynamic and steady-state models of these systems help contrast the interactions of various operating parameters and hardware designs, which become extremely useful in trade-study analyses. NASA?s Exploration Life Support technology development project recently made use of such models to compliment a series of tests on different waste water distillation systems. This paper presents efforts to develop chemical process simulations for three technologies: the Cascade Distillation System (CDS), the Vapor Compression Distillation (VCD) system and the Wiped-Film Rotating Disk (WFRD) using the Aspen Custom Modeler and Aspen Plus process simulation tools. The paper discusses system design, modeling details, and modeling results for each technology and presents some comparisons between the model results and recent test data. Following these initial comparisons, some general conclusions and forward work are discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Choi, Jung; Lu, Jian; Son, Seok-Woo

This study examines future projections of sea level pressure change in the North Pacific and its impact on winter precipitation changes in California. The multi-model analysis, based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, shows a robust sea-level pressure change in the late 21st century over the western North Pacific in which both the Aleutian Low and North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) shift poleward in concert with a widening of the Hadley Cell. This change is partly explained by a systematic increase of static stability in the subtropics. However,more » over the eastern North Pacific, the projected NPSH changes exhibit a substantial inter-model spread, resulting in uncertain projections of precipitation changes in California. This inter-model spread in the eastern North Pacific is associated with a Pacific Decadal Oscillation-like surface temperature change in the western North Pacific and the resulting meridional temperature gradient change. This study points to a major source of uncertainty for the response of winter precipitation to global warming over the West Coast of North America: atmosphere-ocean coupling in the North Pacific.« less

The contribution of natural variability to GCM bias: Can we effectively bias-correct climate projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAfee, S. A.; DeLaFrance, A.

2017-12-01

Investigating the impacts of climate change often entails using projections from inherently imperfect general circulation models (GCMs) to drive models that simulate biophysical or societal systems in great detail. Error or bias in the GCM output is often assessed in relation to observations, and the projections are adjusted so that the output from impacts models can be compared to historical or observed conditions. Uncertainty in the projections is typically accommodated by running more than one future climate trajectory to account for differing emissions scenarios, model simulations, and natural variability. The current methods for dealing with error and uncertainty treat them as separate problems. In places where observed and/or simulated natural variability is large, however, it may not be possible to identify a consistent degree of bias in mean climate, blurring the lines between model error and projection uncertainty. Here we demonstrate substantial instability in mean monthly temperature bias across a suite of GCMs used in CMIP5. This instability is greatest in the highest latitudes during the cool season, where shifts from average temperatures below to above freezing could have profound impacts. In models with the greatest degree of bias instability, the timing of regional shifts from below to above average normal temperatures in a single climate projection can vary by about three decades, depending solely on the degree of bias assessed. This suggests that current bias correction methods based on comparison to 20- or 30-year normals may be inappropriate, particularly in the polar regions.

Computational modeling of Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTG) for interplanetary and deep space travel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nejat, Cyrus; Nejat, Narsis; Nejat, Najmeh

2014-06-01

This research project is part of Narsis Nejat Master of Science thesis project that it is done at Shiraz University. The goals of this research are to make a computer model to evaluate the thermal power, electrical power, amount of emitted/absorbed dose, and amount of emitted/absorbed dose rate for static Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTG)s that is include a comprehensive study of the types of RTG systems and in particular RTG’s fuel resulting from both natural and artificial isotopes, calculation of the permissible dose radioisotope selected from the above, and conceptual design modeling and comparison between several NASA made RTGs with the project computer model pointing out the strong and weakness points for using this model in nuclear industries for simulation. The heat is being converted to electricity by two major methods in RTGs: static conversion and dynamic conversion. The model that is created for this project is for RTGs that heat is being converted to electricity statically. The model approximates good results as being compared with SNAP-3, SNAP-19, MHW, and GPHS RTGs in terms of electrical power, efficiency, specific power, and types of the mission and amount of fuel mass that is required to accomplish the mission.

Evaluation of give kids a boost: A school-based program to increase booster seat use among urban children in economically disadvantaged areas.

PubMed

Yellman, Merissa A; Rodriguez, Marissa A; Colunga, Maria Isabel; McCoy, Mary A; Stephens-Stidham, Shelli; Brown, L Steven; Istre, Gregory R

2018-05-19

This study evaluated the effectiveness of a series of 1-year multifaceted school-based programs aimed at increasing booster seat use among urban children 4-7 years of age in economically disadvantaged areas. During 4 consecutive school years, 2011-2015, the Give Kids a Boost (GKB) program was implemented in a total of 8 schools with similar demographics in Dallas County. Observational surveys were conducted at project schools before project implementation (P 0 ), 1-4 weeks after the completion of project implementation (P 1 ), and 4-5 months later (P 2 ). Changes in booster seat use for the 3 time periods were compared for the 8 project and 14 comparison schools that received no intervention using a nonrandomized trial process. The intervention included (1) train-the-trainer sessions with teachers and parents; (2) presentations about booster seat safety; (3) tailored communication to parents; (4) distribution of fact sheets/resources; (5) walk-around education; and (6) booster seat inspections. The association between the GKB intervention and proper booster seat use was determined initially using univariate analysis. The association was also estimated using a generalized linear mixed model predicting a binomial outcome (booster seat use) for those aged 4 to 7 years, adjusted for child-level variables (age, sex, race/ethnicity) and car-level variables (vehicle type). The model incorporated the effects of clustering by site and by collection date to account for the possibility of repeated sampling. In the 8 project schools, booster seat use for children 4-7 years of age increased an average of 20.9 percentage points between P 0 and P 1 (P 0 = 4.8%, P 1 = 25.7%; odds ratio [OR] = 6.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.5, 8.7; P < .001) and remained at that level in the P 2 time period (P 2 = 25.7%; P < .001, for P 0 vs. P 2 ) in the univariate analysis. The 14 comparison schools had minimal change in booster seat use. The multivariable model showed that children at the project schools were significantly more likely to be properly restrained in a booster seat after the intervention (OR = 2.7; 95% CI, 2.2, 3.3) compared to the P 0 time period and compared to the comparison schools. Despite study limitations, the GKB program was positively associated with an increase in proper booster seat use for children 4-7 years of age in school settings among diverse populations in economically disadvantaged areas. These increases persisted into the following school year in a majority of the project schools. The GKB model may be a replicable strategy to increase booster seat use among school-age children in similar urban settings.

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.;

Thermal model of attic systems with radiant barriers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilkes, K.E.

This report summarizes the first phase of a project to model the thermal performance of radiant barriers. The objective of this phase of the project was to develop a refined model for the thermal performance of residential house attics, with and without radiant barriers, and to verify the model by comparing its predictions against selected existing experimental thermal performance data. Models for the thermal performance of attics with and without radiant barriers have been developed and implemented on an IBM PC/AT computer. The validity of the models has been tested by comparing their predictions with ceiling heat fluxes measured inmore » a number of laboratory and field experiments on attics with and without radiant barriers. Cumulative heat flows predicted by the models were usually within about 5 to 10 percent of measured values. In future phases of the project, the models for attic/radiant barrier performance will be coupled with a whole-house model and further comparisons with experimental data will be made. Following this, the models will be utilized to provide an initial assessment of the energy savings potential of radiant barriers in various configurations and under various climatic conditions. 38 refs., 14 figs., 22 tabs.« less

Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis of Marine and Hydrokinetic Reference Models: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenne, D. S.; Yu, Y. H.; Neary, V.

2015-04-24

In 2010 the U.S. Department of Energy initiated the development of six marine energy converter reference models. The reference models are point designs of well-known marine energy converters. Each device was designed to operate in a specific marine resource, instead of a generic device that can be deployed at any location. This method allows each device to be used as a benchmark for future reference model to benchmark future devices. The six designs consist of three current energy converters and three wave energy converters. The reference model project has generated both technical and economic data sets that are available inmore » the public domain. The methodology to calculate the levelized cost of energy for the reference model project and an overall comparison of the cost of energy from these six reference-model designs are presented in this paper.« less

Analysis of the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation and its Relation to Cloud Radiative Forcing Using TRMM Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randall, David A.; Fowler, Laura D.; Lin, Xin

1998-01-01

In order to improve our understanding of the interactions between clouds, radiation, and the hydrological cycle simulated in the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM), we focused our research on the analysis of the diurnal cycle of precipitation, top-of-the-atmosphere and surface radiation budgets, and cloudiness using 10-year long Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Comparisons the simulated diurnal cycle were made against the diurnal cycle of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) radiation budget and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud products. This report summarizes our major findings over the Amazon Basin.

Climate Change Impact Study with CMIP5 and Comparison with CMIP3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Reyes, E.; Chung, F. I.

2016-12-01

One of significant uncertainties in climate change impact study is the selection of climate model projection including the choosing of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. With the new generation of climate model projection, CMIP5, coming into use, CCTAG selected 11 climate models and two RCPs (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5) for California. Previous DWR climate change study was based on 6 CMIP3 climate models and two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and B1) which were selected by CAT. It is an unanswered question that how the selection of these climate model projections and emission scenarios affect the assessment of climate change impact on future water supply of California CVP/SWP project. This work will run the water planning model CalSim in DWR with 44 CMIP5 and 12 CMIP3 climate model projections to investigate the sensitivity of climate model impact study on future water supply in the CVP/SWP region to the section of climate model projection. It was found that in 2060 CMIP5 projects the wetting trend in Northern California while CMIP3 projects the drying trend in the entire California on the average. And CMIP5 projects about half-degree more warming than CMIP3. As a result, Sacramento River rim inflow increases by 8% for CMIP5 and reduces by 3% for CMIP3. In spite of this difference in rim inflow, north of Delta carryover storage will be reduced both under CMIP5 (14%) and under CMIP3 (23%) in 2060. And south Delta export will be reduced both for CMIP5 (8%) and for CMIP3 (15%). Thus, The CC impact uncertainty caused by the selection of climate model projection (CMIP3 vs CMIP5) is about 7% in terms of Delta export and about 9% in terms of north of Delta carryover storage. This uncertainty is more than the one caused by the selection of sea level rise in that the climate change impact uncertainty caused by the selection of sea level rise (Zero vs 1.5ft SLR) is about 5% in terms of Delta export and about 4-5% in terms of North of Delta carryover storage.

A quantitative comparison of the hemispheric, areal, and laminar origins of sensory and motor cortical projections to the superior colliculus of the cat.

PubMed

Butler, Blake E; Chabot, Nicole; Lomber, Stephen G

2016-09-01

The superior colliculus (SC) is a midbrain structure central to orienting behaviors. The organization of descending projections from sensory cortices to the SC has garnered much attention; however, rarely have projections from multiple modalities been quantified and contrasted, allowing for meaningful conclusions within a single species. Here, we examine corticotectal projections from visual, auditory, somatosensory, motor, and limbic cortices via retrograde pathway tracers injected throughout the superficial and deep layers of the cat SC. As anticipated, the majority of cortical inputs to the SC originate in the visual cortex. In fact, each field implicated in visual orienting behavior makes a substantial projection. Conversely, only one area of the auditory orienting system, the auditory field of the anterior ectosylvian sulcus (fAES), and no area involved in somatosensory orienting, shows significant corticotectal inputs. Although small relative to visual inputs, the projection from the fAES is of particular interest, as it represents the only bilateral cortical input to the SC. This detailed, quantitative study allows for comparison across modalities in an animal that serves as a useful model for both auditory and visual perception. Moreover, the differences in patterns of corticotectal projections between modalities inform the ways in which orienting systems are modulated by cortical feedback. J. Comp. Neurol. 524:2623-2642, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Description of Transport Codes for Space Radiation Shielding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

This slide presentation describes transport codes and their use for studying and designing space radiation shielding. When combined with risk projection models radiation transport codes serve as the main tool for study radiation and designing shielding. There are three criteria for assessing the accuracy of transport codes: (1) Ground-based studies with defined beams and material layouts, (2) Inter-comparison of transport code results for matched boundary conditions and (3) Comparisons to flight measurements. These three criteria have a very high degree with NASA's HZETRN/QMSFRG.

Studies of oscillatory combustion and fuel vaporization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borman, G. L.; Myers, P. S.; Uyehara, O. A.

1972-01-01

Research projects involving oscillatory combustion and fuel vaporization are reported. Comparisons of experimental and theoretical droplet vaporization histories under ambient conditions such that the droplet may approach its thermodynamic critical point are presented. Experimental data on instantaneous heat transfer from a gas to a solid surface under conditions of oscillatory pressure with comparisons to an unsteady one-dimensional model are analyzed. Droplet size and velocity distribution in a spray as obtained by use of a double flash fluorescent method were investigated.

NONMEMory: a run management tool for NONMEM.

PubMed

Wilkins, Justin J

2005-06-01

NONMEM is an extremely powerful tool for nonlinear mixed-effect modelling and simulation of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic data. However, it is a console-based application whose output does not lend itself to rapid interpretation or efficient management. NONMEMory has been created to be a comprehensive project manager for NONMEM, providing detailed summary, comparison and overview of the runs comprising a given project, including the display of output data, simple post-run processing, fast diagnostic plots and run output management, complementary to other available modelling aids. Analysis time ought not to be spent on trivial tasks, and NONMEMory's role is to eliminate these as far as possible by increasing the efficiency of the modelling process. NONMEMory is freely available from http://www.uct.ac.za/depts/pha/nonmemory.php.

Comparisons of Simulated Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Projected Demands in 2046, Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, Roderick F.; Galloway, Joel M.; Miller, Lisa D.; Mau, David P.

2008-01-01

Pueblo Reservoir is one of southeastern Colorado's most valuable water resources. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. The reservoir also provides flood control, recreational activities, sport fishing, and wildlife enhancement to the region. The Bureau of Reclamation is working to meet its goal to issue a Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on the Southern Delivery System project (SDS). SDS is a regional water-delivery project that has been proposed to provide a safe, reliable, and sustainable water supply through the foreseeable future (2046) for Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West. Discussions with the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey led to a cooperative agreement to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality of Pueblo Reservoir. This work has been completed and described in a previously published report, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5056. Additionally, there was a need to make comparisons of simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands associated with the various EIS alternatives and plans by Pueblo West to discharge treated water into the reservoir. Plans by Pueblo West are fully independent of the SDS project. This report compares simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands in Pueblo Reservoir resulting from changes in inflow and water quality entering the reservoir, and from changes to withdrawals from the reservoir as projected for the year 2046. Four of the seven EIS alternatives were selected for scenario simulations. The four U.S. Geological Survey simulation scenarios were the No Action scenario (EIS Alternative 1), the Downstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 2), the Upstream Return-Flow scenario (EIS Alternative 4), and the Upstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 7). Additionally, the results of an Existing Conditions scenario (water years 2000 through 2002) were compared to the No Action scenario (projected demands in 2046) to assess changes in water quality over time. All scenario modeling used an external nutrient-decay model to simulate degradation and assimilation of nutrients along the riverine reach upstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Reservoir modeling was conducted using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CE-QUAL-W2 two-dimensional water-quality model. Lake hydrodynamics, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, algal biomass, and total iron were simulated. Two reservoir site locations were selected for comparison. Results of simulations at site 3B were characteristic of a riverine environment in the reservoir while results at site 7B (near the dam) were characteristic of the main body of the reservoir. Simulation results for the epilimnion and hypolimnion at these two sites also were evaluated and compared. The simulation results in the hypolimnion at site 7B were indicative of the water quality leaving the reservoir. Comparisons of the different scenario results were conducted to assess if substantial differences were observed between selected scenarios. Each of the scenarios was simulated for three contiguous years representing a wet, average, and dry annual hydrologic cycle (water years 2000 through 2002). Additionally, each selected simulation scenario was evaluated for differences in direct- and cumulative-effects on a particular scenario. Direct effects are intended to isolate the future effects of the scenarios. Cumulative effects are intended to evaluate the effects of the scenarios in conjunction with all reasonably foreseeable future activities in the study area. Comparisons between the direct- and cumulative-effects analyses indicated that there were not large differences in the results between most of the simulation scenarios and, as such, the focus of this report was on results for the direct-effects analysis. Addi

Revised Comparisons of Simulated Hydrodynamics and Water Quality for Projected Demands in 2046, Pueblo Reservoir, Southeastern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, Roderick F.; Miller, Lisa D.

2009-01-01

Pueblo Reservoir is one of southeastern Colorado's most valuable water resources. The reservoir provides irrigation, municipal, and industrial water to various entities throughout the region. The reservoir also provides flood control, recreational activities, sport fishing, and wildlife enhancement to the region. The Southern Delivery System (SDS) project is a regional water-delivery project that has been proposed to provide a safe, reliable, and sustainable water supply through the foreseeable future (2046) for Colorado Springs, Fountain, Security, and Pueblo West. Discussions with the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey led to a cooperative agreement to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality of Pueblo Reservoir. This work has been completed and described in a previously published report, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5056. Additionally, there was a need to make comparisons of simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands associated with the various Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) alternatives and plans by Pueblo West to discharge treated wastewater into the reservoir. Wastewater plans by Pueblo West are fully independent of the SDS project. This report compares simulated hydrodynamics and water quality for projected demands in Pueblo Reservoir resulting from changes in inflow and water quality entering the reservoir, and from changes to withdrawals from the reservoir as projected for the year 2046. Four of the seven EIS alternatives were selected for scenario simulations. The four U.S. Geological Survey simulation scenarios were the No Action scenario (EIS Alternative 1), the Downstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 2), the Upstream Return-Flow scenario (EIS Alternative 4), and the Upstream Diversion scenario (EIS Alternative 7). Additionally, the results of an Existing Conditions scenario (year 2006 demand conditions) were compared to the No Action scenario (projected demands in 2046) to assess changes in water quality over time. All scenario modeling used an external nutrient-decay model to simulate degradation and assimilation of nutrients along the riverine reach upstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Reservoir modeling was conducted using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CE-QUAL-W2 two-dimensional water-quality model. Lake hydrodynamics, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved solids, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate, total phosphorus, algal biomass, and total iron were simulated. Two reservoir site locations were selected for comparison. Results of simulations at site 3B were characteristic of a riverine environment in the reservoir, whereas results at site 7B (near the dam) were characteristic of the main body of the reservoir. Simulation results for the epilimnion and hypolimnion at these two sites also were evaluated and compared. The simulation results in the hypolimnion at site 7B were indicative of the water quality leaving the reservoir. Comparisons of the different scenario results were conducted to assess if substantial differences were observed between selected scenarios. Each of the scenarios was simulated for three contiguous years representing a wet, average, and dry annual hydrologic cycle (water years 2000 through 2002). Additionally, each selected simulation scenario was evaluated for differences in direct and cumulative effects on a particular scenario. Direct effects are intended to isolate the future effects of the scenarios. Cumulative effects are intended to evaluate the effects of the scenarios in conjunction with all reasonably foreseeable future activities in the study area. Comparisons between the direct- and cumulative-effects analyses indicated that there were not large differences in the results between most of the simulation scenarios, and, as such, the focus of this report was on results for the direct-effects analysis. Additionally, the differences between simulation results generally were

Comparison of Cone Model Parameters for Halo Coronal Mass Ejections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na, Hyeonock; Moon, Y.-J.; Jang, Soojeong; Lee, Kyoung-Sun; Kim, Hae-Yeon

2013-11-01

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are a major cause of geomagnetic storms, hence their three-dimensional structures are important for space weather. We compare three cone models: an elliptical-cone model, an ice-cream-cone model, and an asymmetric-cone model. These models allow us to determine three-dimensional parameters of HCMEs such as radial speed, angular width, and the angle [ γ] between sky plane and cone axis. We compare these parameters obtained from three models using 62 HCMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO from 2001 to 2002. Then we obtain the root-mean-square (RMS) error between the highest measured projection speeds and their calculated projection speeds from the cone models. As a result, we find that the radial speeds obtained from the models are well correlated with one another ( R > 0.8). The correlation coefficients between angular widths range from 0.1 to 0.48 and those between γ-values range from -0.08 to 0.47, which is much smaller than expected. The reason may be the different assumptions and methods. The RMS errors between the highest measured projection speeds and the highest estimated projection speeds of the elliptical-cone model, the ice-cream-cone model, and the asymmetric-cone model are 376 km s-1, 169 km s-1, and 152 km s-1. We obtain the correlation coefficients between the location from the models and the flare location ( R > 0.45). Finally, we discuss strengths and weaknesses of these models in terms of space-weather application.

Development of a Risk-Based Comparison Methodology of Carbon Capture Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal

2014-06-01

Given the varying degrees of maturity among existing carbon capture (CC) technology alternatives, an understanding of the inherent technical and financial risk and uncertainty associated with these competing technologies is requisite to the success of carbon capture as a viable solution to the greenhouse gas emission challenge. The availability of tools and capabilities to conduct rigorous, risk–based technology comparisons is thus highly desirable for directing valuable resources toward the technology option(s) with a high return on investment, superior carbon capture performance, and minimum risk. To address this research need, we introduce a novel risk-based technology comparison method supported by anmore » integrated multi-domain risk model set to estimate risks related to technological maturity, technical performance, and profitability. Through a comparison between solid sorbent and liquid solvent systems, we illustrate the feasibility of estimating risk and quantifying uncertainty in a single domain (modular analytical capability) as well as across multiple risk dimensions (coupled analytical capability) for comparison. This method brings technological maturity and performance to bear on profitability projections, and carries risk and uncertainty modeling across domains via inter-model sharing of parameters, distributions, and input/output. The integration of the models facilitates multidimensional technology comparisons within a common probabilistic risk analysis framework. This approach and model set can equip potential technology adopters with the necessary computational capabilities to make risk-informed decisions about CC technology investment. The method and modeling effort can also be extended to other industries where robust tools and analytical capabilities are currently lacking for evaluating nascent technologies.« less

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Talbert, Marian; Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2017-01-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

2017-07-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A modeling comparison of projection neuron- and neuromodulator-elicited oscillations in a central pattern generating network.

PubMed

Kintos, Nickolas; Nusbaum, Michael P; Nadim, Farzan

2008-06-01

Many central pattern generating networks are influenced by synaptic input from modulatory projection neurons. The network response to a projection neuron is sometimes mimicked by bath applying the neuronally-released modulator, despite the absence of network interactions with the projection neuron. One interesting example occurs in the crab stomatogastric ganglion (STG), where bath applying the neuropeptide pyrokinin (PK) elicits a gastric mill rhythm which is similar to that elicited by the projection neuron modulatory commissural neuron 1 (MCN1), despite the absence of PK in MCN1 and the fact that MCN1 is not active during the PK-elicited rhythm. MCN1 terminals have fast and slow synaptic actions on the gastric mill network and are presynaptically inhibited by this network in the STG. These local connections are inactive in the PK-elicited rhythm, and the mechanism underlying this rhythm is unknown. We use mathematical and biophysically-realistic modeling to propose potential mechanisms by which PK can elicit a gastric mill rhythm that is similar to the MCN1-elicited rhythm. We analyze slow-wave network oscillations using simplified mathematical models and, in parallel, develop biophysically-realistic models that account for fast, action potential-driven oscillations and some spatial structure of the network neurons. Our results illustrate how the actions of bath-applied neuromodulators can mimic those of descending projection neurons through mathematically similar but physiologically distinct mechanisms.

Simulating and validating coastal gradients in wind energy resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahmann, Andrea; Floors, Rogier; Karagali, Ioanna; Vasiljevic, Nikola; Lea, Guillaume; Simon, Elliot; Courtney, Michael; Badger, Merete; Peña, Alfredo; Hasager, Charlotte

2016-04-01

The experimental campaign of the RUNE (Reducing Uncertainty of Near-shore wind resource Estimates) project took place on the western coast of Denmark during the winter 2015-2016. The campaign used onshore scanning lidar technology combined with ocean and satellite information and produced a unique dataset to study the transition in boundary layer dynamics across the coastal zone. The RUNE project aims at reducing the uncertainty of near-shore wind resource estimates produced by mesoscale modeling. With this in mind, simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were performed to identify the sensitivity in the coastal gradients of wind energy resources to various model parameters and model inputs. Among these: model horizontal grid spacing and the planetary boundary layer and surface-layer scheme. We report on the differences amongst these simulations and preliminary results on the comparison of the model simulations with the RUNE observations of lidar and satellite measurements and near coastal tall mast.

Comparison of Coupled Radiative Flow Solutions with Project Fire 2 Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olynick, David R.; Henline, W. D.; Chambers, Lin Hartung; Candler, G. V.

1995-01-01

A nonequilibrium, axisymmetric, Navier-Stokes flow solver with coupled radiation has been developed for use in the design or thermal protection systems for vehicles where radiation effects are important. The present method has been compared with an existing now and radiation solver and with the Project Fire 2 experimental data. Good agreement has been obtained over the entire Fire 2 trajectory with the experimentally determined values of the stagnation radiation intensity in the 0.2-6.2 eV range and with the total stagnation heating. The effects of a number of flow models are examined to determine which combination of physical models produces the best agreement with the experimental data. These models include radiation coupling, multitemperature thermal models, and finite rate chemistry. Finally, the computational efficiency of the present model is evaluated. The radiation properties model developed for this study is shown to offer significant computational savings compared to existing codes.

Sustainable Hydro Assessment and Groundwater Recharge Projects (SHARP) in Germany - Water Balance Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niemand, C.; Kuhn, K.; Schwarze, R.

2010-12-01

SHARP is a European INTERREG IVc Program. It focuses on the exchange of innovative technologies to protect groundwater resources for future generations by considering the climate change and the different geological and geographical conditions. Regions involved are Austria, United Kingdom, Poland, Italy, Macedonia, Malta, Greece and Germany. They will exchange practical know-how and also determine know-how demands concerning SHARP’s key contents: general groundwater management tools, artificial groundwater recharge technologies, groundwater monitoring systems, strategic use of groundwater resources for drinking water, irrigation and industry, techniques to save water quality and quantity, drinking water safety plans, risk management tools and water balance models. SHARP Outputs & results will influence the regional policy in the frame of sustainable groundwater management to save and improve the quality and quantity of groundwater reservoirs for future generations. The main focus of the Saxon State Office for Environment, Agriculture and Landscape in this project is the enhancement and purposive use of water balance models. Already since 1992 scientists compare different existing water balance models on different scales and coupled with groundwater models. For example in the KLIWEP (Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change Projections on Water and Matter Balance for the Catchment of River Parthe in Saxony) project the coupled model WaSiM-ETH - PCGEOFIM® has been used to study the impact of climate change on water balance and water supplies. The project KliWES (Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change Projections on Water and Matter Balance for Catchment Areas in Saxony) still running, comprises studies of fundamental effects of climate change on catchments in Saxony. Project objective is to assess Saxon catchments according to the vulnerability of their water resources towards climate change projections in order to derive region-specific recommendations for management actions. The model comparisons within reference areas showed significant differences in outcome. The values of water balance components calculated with different models partially fluctuate by a multiple of their value. The SHARP project was prepared in several previous projects that were testing suitable water balance models and is now able to assist the knowledge transfer.

Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Physics Models For Diagnostics Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perotti, Jose M.

2015-01-01

The project will use high-fidelity physics models and simulations to simulate real-time operations of cryogenic and systems and calculate the status/health of the systems. The project enables the delivery of system health advisories to ground system operators. The capability will also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenic system operations. This project will develop and implement high-fidelity physics-based modeling techniques tosimulate the real-time operation of cryogenics and other fluids systems and, when compared to thereal-time operation of the actual systems, provide assessment of their state. Physics-modelcalculated measurements (called “pseudo-sensors”) will be compared to the system real-timedata. Comparison results will be utilized to provide systems operators with enhanced monitoring ofsystems' health and status, identify off-nominal trends and diagnose system/component failures.This capability can also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenics and other fluidsystems designs. This capability will be interfaced with the ground operations command andcontrol system as a part of the Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance (AGSM) project to helpassure system availability and mission success. The initial capability will be developed for theLiquid Oxygen (LO2) ground loading systems.

Model Comparison in Subsurface Science: The DECOVALEX and Sim-SEQ Initiatives (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkholzer, J. T.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Rutqvist, J.; Tsang, C.

2013-12-01

Building predictive model for flow and transport processes in the subsurface is a challenging task, even more so if these processes are coupled to geomechanical and/or geochemical effects. Modelers must take into consideration a multiplicity of length scales, a wide range of time scales, the coupling between processes, different model components, and the spatial variability in the value of most model input parameters (and often limited knowledge about them). Consequently, modelers have to make choices while developing their conceptual models. Such model choices may cause a wide range in the predictions made by different models and different modeling groups, even if each of the underlying simulators has been perfectly verified against appropriate benchmarks. In other words, the modeling activity itself is prone to uncertainty and bias. This uncertainty, referred to here as model selection uncertainty, forms one of the greatest sources of uncertainty for predictive modeling. In this paper, we discuss two examples of model intercomparison exercises that are currently undertaken to better understand model selection uncertainty, elucidate system behavior, inform needs for data collection and better physics parameterizations, and enhance community understanding of capabilities. The first example is the international DECOVALEX project, which was launched in 1992 by a group of countries dealing with modeling issues related to geologic disposal of radioactive waste. DECOVALEX is an acronym for DEvelopment of COupled THM models and their VALidation against Experiments. To date, the project has progressed successfully through five stages, each of which featuring a small number of test cases for model comparison related to coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in geologic systems. The test cases are proposed and developed by the organizations participating in DECOVALEX; they typically involve results from major field and laboratory experiments. Over the past decades, the DECOVALEX project has played a major role in improving our understanding of coupled THM processes in fractured rock and buffer/backfill materials, a subject of importance to performance assessment of a radioactive waste geologic repository. The second example is the Sim-SEQ project, a relatively recent model comparison initiative addressing multi-phase processes relevant in geologic carbon sequestration. Like DECOVALEX, Sim-SEQ is not about benchmarking, but rather about evaluating model building efforts in a broad and comprehensive sense. In Sim-SEQ, sixteen international modeling teams are building their own models for a specific carbon sequestration site referred to as the Sim-SEQ Study site (the S-3 site). The S-3 site is patterned after the ongoing SECARB Phase III Early Test site in southwestern Mississippi, where CO2 is injected into a fluvial sandstone unit with high vertical and lateral heterogeneity. The complex geology of the S-3 site, its location in the water leg of a CO2-EOR field with a strong water drive, and the presence of methane in the reservoir brine make this a challenging task, requiring the modelers to use their best judgment in making a large number of choices about how to model various processes and properties of the system.

A PHYSICAL MODEL FOR THE SIMULATION OF BIOTURBATION AND ITS COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS WITH OLIGOCHAETES. (R825513C011)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Comparison of Flow Calibration Using NEXRAD and Surface Rain Gauge Data in ArcSWAT

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The value of watershed-scale, water quality models to ecosystem management is increasingly evident as more programs adopt these tools to help assess the effectiveness of different management scenarios on the environment. The USDA-Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) is one such program whi...

GENERAL CH4 OXIDATION MODEL AND COMPARISONS OF CH4 OXIDATION IN NATURAL AND MANAGED SYSTEMS. (R824993)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Top 20 Collaborative Internet-Based Science Projects of 1998: Characteristics and Comparisons to Exemplary Science Instruction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berg, Craig A.; Jefson, Cristy

This paper utilizes the characteristics of model science instruction to identify exemplary Internet-based science collaborations. The filter for attaining "exemplary" status was based on state and national standards-generating initiatives and the corresponding implications for appropriate student activity in science classrooms. Twenty…

Projections of Future Precipitation Extremes Over Europe: A Multimodel Assessment of Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph

2017-10-01

Projections of precipitation and its extremes over the European continent are analyzed in an extensive multimodel ensemble of 12 and 50 km resolution EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced by RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) aerosol and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. A systematic intercomparison with ENSEMBLES RCMs is carried out, such that in total information is provided for an unprecedentedly large data set of 100 RCM simulations. An evaluation finds very reasonable skill for the EURO-CORDEX models in simulating temporal and geographical variations of (mean and heavy) precipitation at both horizontal resolutions. Heavy and extreme precipitation events are projected to intensify across most of Europe throughout the whole year. All considered models agree on a distinct intensification of extremes by often more than +20% in winter and fall and over central and northern Europe. A reduction of rainy days and mean precipitation in summer is simulated by a large majority of models in the Mediterranean area, but intermodel spread between the simulations is large. In central Europe and France during summer, models project decreases in precipitation but more intense heavy and extreme rainfalls. Comparison to previous RCM projections from ENSEMBLES reveals consistency but slight differences in summer, where reductions in southern European precipitation are not as pronounced as previously projected. The projected changes of the European hydrological cycle may have substantial impact on environmental and anthropogenic systems. In particular, the simulations indicate a rising probability of summertime drought in southern Europe and more frequent and intense heavy rainfall across all of Europe.

Accounting for downscaling and model uncertainty in fine-resolution seasonal climate projections over the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

2018-01-01

Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on natural systems as well as various socio-economic aspects of human life. This has urged scientific communities to improve the understanding of future climate and reduce the uncertainties associated with projections. In the present study, ten statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs at 1/16th deg. spatial resolution from two different downscaling procedures are utilized over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) to assess the changes in climate variables and characterize the associated uncertainties. Three climate variables, i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, are studied for the historical period of 1970-2000 as well as future period of 2010-2099, simulated with representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is employed to reduce the model uncertainty and develop a probabilistic projection for each variable in each scenario. Historical comparison of long-term attributes of GCMs and observation suggests a more accurate representation for BMA than individual models. Furthermore, BMA projections are used to investigate future seasonal to annual changes of climate variables. Projections indicate significant increase in annual precipitation and temperature, with varied degree of change across different sub-basins of CRB. We then characterized uncertainty of future projections for each season over CRB. Results reveal that model uncertainty is the main source of uncertainty, among others. However, downscaling uncertainty considerably contributes to the total uncertainty of future projections, especially in summer. On the contrary, downscaling uncertainty appears to be higher than scenario uncertainty for precipitation.

Comparisons of MOVES Light-duty Gasoline NOx Emission Rates with Real-world Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, D.; Sonntag, D.; Warila, J.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have shown differences between air quality model estimates and monitored values for nitrogen oxides. Several studies have suggested that the discrepancy between monitored and modeled values is due to an overestimation of NOx from mobile sources in EPA's emission inventory, particularly for light-duty gasoline vehicles. EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) is an emission modeling system that estimates emissions for cars, trucks and other mobile sources at the national, county, and project level for criteria pollutants, greenhouse gases, and air toxics. Studies that directly measure vehicle emissions provide useful data for evaluating MOVES when the measurement conditions are properly accounted for in modeling. In this presentation, we show comparisons of MOVES2014 to thousands of real-world NOx emissions measurements from individual light-duty gasoline vehicles. The comparison studies include in-use vehicle emissions tests conducted on chassis dynamometer tests in support of Denver, Colorado's Vehicle Inspection & Maintenance Program and remote sensing data collected using road-side instruments in multiple locations and calendar years in the United States. In addition, we conduct comparisons of MOVES predictions to fleet-wide emissions measured from tunnels. We also present details on the methodology used to conduct the MOVES model runs in comparing to the independent data.

The 2007 Projected Impacts to Clark County and Local Government Public Safety Agencies Resulting from the Transportation of High- Level Nuclear Waste to Yucca Mountain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mushkatel, A.H.; Conway, P.H.D.S.; Navis, I.

2008-07-01

This paper focuses on projecting fiscal impacts to public safety agencies from the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The efforts made by Clark County Nevada, to develop a fiscal model of impacts for public safety agencies are described in this paper. In addition, the scenarios used in the study are discussed, as well as a discussion of the plume models provided for each community's scenario that result from the efforts of the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC). Some of the difficulties in constructing a fiscal model of impacts for the entire 24 year high-level nuclearmore » waste transportation shipping campaign are identified, and a refined methodology is provided to accomplish this task. Finally, a comparison of the fiscal impact projections for public safety agencies that Clark County developed in 2001, 2005 are discussed, and the fiscal impact cost projections for the entire 24 year transportation campaign are provided. (authors)« less

A comparison of metrics for assessing state-of-the-art climate models and implications for probabilistic projections of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ring, Christoph; Pollinger, Felix; Kaspar-Ott, Irena; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Paeth, Heiko

2018-03-01

A major task of climate science are reliable projections of climate change for the future. To enable more solid statements and to decrease the range of uncertainty, global general circulation models and regional climate models are evaluated based on a 2 × 2 contingency table approach to generate model weights. These weights are compared among different methodologies and their impact on probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation changes is investigated. Simulated seasonal precipitation and temperature for both 50-year trends and climatological means are assessed at two spatial scales: in seven study regions around the globe and in eight sub-regions of the Mediterranean area. Overall, 24 models of phase 3 and 38 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project altogether 159 transient simulations of precipitation and 119 of temperature from four emissions scenarios are evaluated against the ERA-20C reanalysis over the 20th century. The results show high conformity with previous model evaluation studies. The metrics reveal that mean of precipitation and both temperature mean and trend agree well with the reference dataset and indicate improvement for the more recent ensemble mean, especially for temperature. The method is highly transferrable to a variety of further applications in climate science. Overall, there are regional differences of simulation quality, however, these are less pronounced than those between the results for 50-year mean and trend. The trend results are suitable for assigning weighting factors to climate models. Yet, the implications for probabilistic climate projections is strictly dependent on the region and season.

CoRoT/ESTA TASK 1 and TASK 3 comparison of the internal structure and seismic properties of representative stellar models. Comparisons between the ASTEC, CESAM, CLES, GARSTEC and STAROX codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebreton, Yveline; Montalbán, Josefina; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jørgen; Roxburgh, Ian W.; Weiss, Achim

2008-08-01

We compare stellar models produced by different stellar evolution codes for the CoRoT/ESTA project, comparing their global quantities, their physical structure, and their oscillation properties. We discuss the differences between models and identify the underlying reasons for these differences. The stellar models are representative of potential CoRoT targets. Overall we find very good agreement between the five different codes, but with some significant deviations. We find noticeable discrepancies (though still at the per cent level) that result from the handling of the equation of state, of the opacities and of the convective boundaries. The results of our work will be helpful in interpreting future asteroseismology results from CoRoT.

A comparison of different strategies in multivariate regression models for the direct determination of Mn, Cr, and Ni in steel samples using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, Aderval S.; Gonzaga, Fabiano B.; da Rocha, Werickson F. C.; Lima, Igor C. A.

2018-01-01

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) analysis was carried out on eleven steel samples to quantify the concentrations of chromium, nickel, and manganese. LIBS spectral data were correlated to known concentrations of the samples using different strategies in partial least squares (PLS) regression models. For the PLS analysis, one predictive model was separately generated for each element, while different approaches were used for the selection of variables (VIP: variable importance in projection and iPLS: interval partial least squares) in the PLS model to quantify the contents of the elements. The comparison of the performance of the models showed that there was no significant statistical difference using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. The elliptical joint confidence region (EJCR) did not detect systematic errors in these proposed methodologies for each metal.

Coronal Physics and the Chandra Emission Line Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brickhouse, Nancy

1999-01-01

With the launch of the Chandra X-ray Observatory, high resolution X-ray spectroscopy of cosmic sources has begun. Early, deep observations of three stellar coronal sources will provide not only invaluable calibration data, but will also give us benchmarks for plasma spectral modeling codes. These codes are to interpret data from stellar coronae, galaxies and clusters of galaxies. supernova remnants and other astrophysical sources, but they have been called into question in recent years as problems with understanding moderate resolution ASCA and EUVE data have arisen. The Emission Line Project is a collaborative effort to improve the models, with Phase 1 being the comparison of models with observed spectra of Capella, Procyon, and HR, 1099. Goals of these comparisons are (1) to determine and verify accurate and robust diagnostics and (2) to identify and prioritize issues in fundamental spectroscopy which will require further theoretical and/or laboratory work. A critical issue in exploiting the coronal data for these purposes is to understand the extent to which common simplifying assumptions (coronal equilibrium, time-independence, negligible optical depth) apply. We will discuss recent advances in our understanding of stellar coronae in this context.

Comparison of Hard Surface and Soft Soil Impact Performance of a Crashworthy Composite Fuselage Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sareen, Ashish K.; Sparks, Chad; Mullins, B. R., Jr.; Fasanella, Edwin; Jackson, Karen

2002-01-01

A comparison of the soft soil and hard surface impact performance of a crashworthy composite fuselage concept has been performed. Specifically, comparisons of the peak acceleration values, pulse duration, and onset rate at specific locations on the fuselage were evaluated. In a prior research program, the composite fuselage section was impacted at 25 feet per second onto concrete at the Impact Dynamics Research Facility (IDRF) at NASA Langley Research Center. A soft soil test was conducted at the same impact velocity as a part of the NRTC/RITA Crashworthy and Energy Absorbing Structures project. In addition to comparisons of soft soil and hard surface test results, an MSC. Dytran dynamic finite element model was developed to evaluate the test analysis correlation. In addition, modeling parameters and techniques affecting test analysis correlation are discussed. Once correlated, the analytical methodology will be used in follow-on work to evaluate the specific energy absorption of various subfloor concepts for improved crash protection during hard surface and soft soil impacts.

Molecular activity prediction by means of supervised subspace projection based ensembles of classifiers.

PubMed

Cerruela García, G; García-Pedrajas, N; Luque Ruiz, I; Gómez-Nieto, M Á

2018-03-01

This paper proposes a method for molecular activity prediction in QSAR studies using ensembles of classifiers constructed by means of two supervised subspace projection methods, namely nonparametric discriminant analysis (NDA) and hybrid discriminant analysis (HDA). We studied the performance of the proposed ensembles compared to classical ensemble methods using four molecular datasets and eight different models for the representation of the molecular structure. Using several measures and statistical tests for classifier comparison, we observe that our proposal improves the classification results with respect to classical ensemble methods. Therefore, we show that ensembles constructed using supervised subspace projections offer an effective way of creating classifiers in cheminformatics.

Students' ideas about prismatic images: teaching experiments for an image-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grusche, Sascha

2017-05-01

Prismatic refraction is a classic topic in science education. To investigate how undergraduate students think about prismatic dispersion, and to see how they change their thinking when observing dispersed images, five teaching experiments were done and analysed according to the Model of Educational Reconstruction. For projection through a prism, the students used a 'split image projection' conceptualisation. For the view through a prism, this conceptualisation was not fruitful. Based on the observed images, six of seven students changed to a 'diverted image projection' conceptualisation. From a comparison between students' and scientists' ideas, teaching implications are derived for an image-based approach.

Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introductionmore » to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.« less

FAST Model Calibration and Validation of the OC5-DeepCwind Floating Offshore Wind System Against Wave Tank Test Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wendt, Fabian F; Robertson, Amy N; Jonkman, Jason

During the course of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project, which focused on the validation of numerical methods through comparison against tank test data, the authors created a numerical FAST model of the 1:50-scale DeepCwind semisubmersible system that was tested at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands ocean basin in 2013. This paper discusses several model calibration studies that were conducted to identify model adjustments that improve the agreement between the numerical simulations and the experimental test data. These calibration studies cover wind-field-specific parameters (coherence, turbulence), hydrodynamic and aerodynamic modeling approaches, as well as rotor model (blade-pitchmore » and blade-mass imbalances) and tower model (structural tower damping coefficient) adjustments. These calibration studies were conducted based on relatively simple calibration load cases (wave only/wind only). The agreement between the final FAST model and experimental measurements is then assessed based on more-complex combined wind and wave validation cases.« less

Study of Two-Dimensional Compressible Non-Acoustic Modeling of Stirling Machine Type Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tew, Roy C., Jr.; Ibrahim, Mounir B.

2001-01-01

A two-dimensional (2-D) computer code was developed for modeling enclosed volumes of gas with oscillating boundaries, such as Stirling machine components. An existing 2-D incompressible flow computer code, CAST, was used as the starting point for the project. CAST was modified to use the compressible non-acoustic Navier-Stokes equations to model an enclosed volume including an oscillating piston. The devices modeled have low Mach numbers and are sufficiently small that the time required for acoustics to propagate across them is negligible. Therefore, acoustics were excluded to enable more time efficient computation. Background information about the project is presented. The compressible non-acoustic flow assumptions are discussed. The governing equations used in the model are presented in transport equation format. A brief description is given of the numerical methods used. Comparisons of code predictions with experimental data are then discussed.

Collaboratively Enabling Reanalysis Intercomparison Using the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF): A Case Study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potter, G. L.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Carriere, L.; McInerney, M.; Nadeau, D.; Shen, Y.

2014-12-01

The NASA Climate Model Data Service (CDS) and the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) are collaborating to provide an end-to-end system for the comparative study of the major reanalysis projects: ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA/GMAO MERRA, NOAA/NCEP CFSR, NOAA/ESRL 20CR, JMA JRA25, and JRA55. These reanalyses have been repackaged to adhere to the CMIP5 standards and published on the ESGF. Reanalysis centers provide interfaces to the various reanalyses, but each data set requires some effort to either compare with other reanalyses or with atmospheric model output. The repackaging for ESGF required reformatting, restructuring and modifications to the metadata to facilitate the ESGF search capabilities. Once this was done, the data structure is the same as used by the very successful CMIP3 and CMIP5 making comparison among reanalyses and climate models a relatively easy exercise. The data can now be accessed using WGET, OPENDAP, or HTTPServer at https://earthsystemcog.org/projects/ana4mips/ . An example using this interface will be shown including comparison of the reanalyses portrayal of the surface heat balance during the 2010 Russian heat wave. We have found that although the difference reanalyses produce very similar atmospheric features of the heat wave, the surface energy balance terms such as latent and sensible heat show considerable differences. This comparison helps point out systematic differences in the reanalyses surface moisture and may lead to a better understanding of the differences.

Heat strain models applicable for protective clothing: Comparison of core temperature response. Technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gonzalez, R.R.; McLellan, T.M.; Withey, W.R.

This report represents the results of TTCP-UTP6 efforts on modeling aspects when chemical protective ensembles are worn which need to be considered in warm environments. Since 1983, a significant data base has been collected using human experimental studies and wide clothing systems from which predictive modeling equations have been developed with individuals working in temperate and hot environments, but few comparisons of the -- results from various model outputs have ever been carried out. This initial comparison study was part of a key technical area (KIA) project for The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) UTP-6 working party. A modeling workshop wasmore » conducted in Toronto, Canada on 9-10 June 1994 to discuss the data reduction and results acquired in an initial clothing analysis study of TTCP using various chemical protective garments. To our knowledge, no comprehensive study to date has ever focused on comparing experimental results using an international standardized heat stress procedure matched to physiological outputs from various model predictions in individuals dressed in chemical protective clothing systems. This is the major focus of this TTCP key technical study. This technical report covers one aspect of the working party`s results.« less

Projections of Trends in Overweight in the Elderly Population in Germany until 2030 and International Comparison

PubMed Central

Westphal, Christina; Doblhammer, Gabriele

2014-01-01

Background/Aims To project the numbers of pre-obese (BMI 25-29.99 kg/m²) and obese (BMI > 30 kg/m²) men and women aged 50+ in Germany until 2030 and to compare our estimates with actual figures from four European countries and the USA. Estimates are based on six scenarios encompassing improvements as well as worsenings of current trends. Methods We used pooled data from 1999 to 2009 of the German Microcensus (n = 1,472,547). Using multinomial logistic regression models we estimated age-specific probabilities of pre-obesity and obesity and applied them to the 12th population projection of the Federal Statistical Office. Results We project overall increases in absolute numbers of pre-obesity ranging between 14.2 and 18.2 million. However, the prevalence of pre-obesity is likely to decrease slightly. In contrast, absolute and relative numbers of obesity are projected to increase, ranging between 7.2 and 15.8 million. The international comparison revealed that pre-obesity prevalences will remain among the highest in Germany, while obesity is projected to fall below current levels of the UK or the USA. Conclusion Pre-obesity and, particularly, obesity are likely to become a more prominent health issue in Germany in the near future which could have large repercussions for the public health system. PMID:24525549

A Study of Spatio-Temporal Variability in Future Wind Energy over the Korean Peninsula Using Regional Climate Model Ensemble Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIM, Y.; Lim, Y. J.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, B. J.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate change on wind speed, wind energy density (WED), and potential electronic production (PEP) over the Korean peninsula have been investigated by using five regional climate models (HadGEM3-RA, RegCM, WRF, GRIMs and MM5) ensemble projection data. HadGEM2-AO based two RCP scenarios (RCP4.5/8.5) data have been used for initial and boundary condition to all RCMs. Wind energy density and its annual and seasonal variability have been estimated based on monthly near-surface wind speeds, and the potential electronic production and its change have been also analyzed. As a result of comparison ensemble models based annual mean wind speed for 25-yr historical period (1981-2005) to the ERA-interim, it is shown that all RCMs overestimate near-surface wind speed compared to the reanalysis data but the results of HadGEM3-RA are most comparable. The changes annual and seasonal mean of WED and PEP for the historical period and comparison results to future projection (2021-2050) will be presented in this poster session. We also scrutinize the changes in mean sea level pressure and mean sea level pressure gradient in driving GCM/RCM as a factor inducing the variations. Our results can be used as a background data for devising a plan to develop and operate wind farm over the Korean Peninsula.

Coordination of Mesoscale Meteorological Research between ASL and European Group

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-12-01

have been influenced by the Panel’s advice. Attention is drawn to the role of the Panel in involving the wider mesomet modelling community in ASL’s...during the contract period It is difficult to measure precisely the influence which the Panel has brought to bear on ASL’s policy-making and activities...the Arm-y"s Mesoscale Model Comparison Project. Their use has led to considerably increased insight into the behaviour of the models tested and

Directional data analysis under the general projected normal distribution

PubMed Central

Wang, Fangpo; Gelfand, Alan E.

2013-01-01

The projected normal distribution is an under-utilized model for explaining directional data. In particular, the general version provides flexibility, e.g., asymmetry and possible bimodality along with convenient regression specification. Here, we clarify the properties of this general class. We also develop fully Bayesian hierarchical models for analyzing circular data using this class. We show how they can be fit using MCMC methods with suitable latent variables. We show how posterior inference for distributional features such as the angular mean direction and concentration can be implemented as well as how prediction within the regression setting can be handled. With regard to model comparison, we argue for an out-of-sample approach using both a predictive likelihood scoring loss criterion and a cumulative rank probability score criterion. PMID:24046539

Comparison of MADE3-simulated and observed aerosol distributions with a focus on aerosol vertical profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, Christopher; Hendricks, Johannes; Righi, Mattia; Jöckel, Patrick

2016-04-01

The reliability of aerosol radiative forcing estimates from climate models depends on the accuracy of simulated global aerosol distribution and composition, as well as on the models' representation of the aerosol-cloud and aerosol-radiation interactions. To help improve on previous modeling studies, we recently developed the new aerosol microphysics submodel MADE3 that explicitly tracks particle mixing state in the Aitken, accumulation, and coarse mode size ranges. We implemented MADE3 into the global atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC and evaluated it by comparison of simulated aerosol properties to observations. Compared properties include continental near-surface aerosol component concentrations and size distributions, continental and marine aerosol vertical profiles, and nearly global aerosol optical depth. Recent studies have shown the specific importance of aerosol vertical profiles for determination of the aerosol radiative forcing. Therefore, our focus here is on the evaluation of simulated vertical profiles. The observational data is taken from campaigns between 1990 and 2011 over the Pacific Ocean, over North and South America, and over Europe. The datasets include black carbon and total aerosol mass mixing ratios, as well as aerosol particle number concentrations. Compared to other models, EMAC with MADE3 yields good agreement with the observations - despite a general high bias of the simulated mass mixing ratio profiles. However, BC concentrations are generally overestimated by many models in the upper troposphere. With MADE3 in EMAC, we find better agreement of the simulated BC profiles with HIPPO data than the multi-model average of the models that took part in the AeroCom project. There is an interesting difference between the profiles from individual campaigns and more "climatological" datasets. For instance, compared to spatially and temporally localized campaigns, the model simulates a more continuous decline in both total aerosol and black carbon mass mixing ratio with altitude than found in the observations. In contrast, measured profiles from the HIPPO project are qualitatively captured well. Similar conclusions hold for the comparison of simulated and measured aerosol particle number concentrations. On the one hand, these results exemplify the difficulty in evaluating the representativeness of the simulated global climatological state of the aerosol by means of comparison with individually measured vertical profiles. On the other hand, it highlights the value of aircraft campaigns with large spatial and temporal coverage for model evaluation.

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project.

PubMed

Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I; Bedford, Felicity E; Bennett, Dominic J; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J; Chng, Charlotte W T; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L P; Day, Julie; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Emerson, Susan R; Gao, Di; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Ingram, Daniel J; Jung, Martin; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Martin, Callum D; Pan, Yuan; Pask-Hale, Gwilym D; Pynegar, Edwin L; Robinson, Alexandra N; Sanchez-Ortiz, Katia; Senior, Rebecca A; Simmons, Benno I; White, Hannah J; Zhang, Hanbin; Aben, Job; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Adum, Gilbert B; Aguilar-Barquero, Virginia; Aizen, Marcelo A; Albertos, Belén; Alcala, E L; Del Mar Alguacil, Maria; Alignier, Audrey; Ancrenaz, Marc; Andersen, Alan N; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Armbrecht, Inge; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aumann, Tom; Axmacher, Jan C; Azhar, Badrul; Azpiroz, Adrián B; Baeten, Lander; Bakayoko, Adama; Báldi, András; Banks, John E; Baral, Sharad K; Barlow, Jos; Barratt, Barbara I P; Barrico, Lurdes; Bartolommei, Paola; Barton, Diane M; Basset, Yves; Batáry, Péter; Bates, Adam J; Baur, Bruno; Bayne, Erin M; Beja, Pedro; Benedick, Suzan; Berg, Åke; Bernard, Henry; Berry, Nicholas J; Bhatt, Dinesh; Bicknell, Jake E; Bihn, Jochen H; Blake, Robin J; Bobo, Kadiri S; Bóçon, Roberto; Boekhout, Teun; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Bonham, Kevin J; Borges, Paulo A V; Borges, Sérgio H; Boutin, Céline; Bouyer, Jérémy; Bragagnolo, Cibele; Brandt, Jodi S; Brearley, Francis Q; Brito, Isabel; Bros, Vicenç; Brunet, Jörg; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Buddle, Christopher M; Bugter, Rob; Buscardo, Erika; Buse, Jörn; Cabra-García, Jimmy; Cáceres, Nilton C; Cagle, Nicolette L; Calviño-Cancela, María; Cameron, Sydney A; Cancello, Eliana M; Caparrós, Rut; Cardoso, Pedro; Carpenter, Dan; Carrijo, Tiago F; Carvalho, Anelena L; Cassano, Camila R; Castro, Helena; Castro-Luna, Alejandro A; Rolando, Cerda B; Cerezo, Alexis; Chapman, Kim Alan; Chauvat, Matthieu; Christensen, Morten; Clarke, Francis M; Cleary, Daniel F R; Colombo, Giorgio; Connop, Stuart P; Craig, Michael D; Cruz-López, Leopoldo; Cunningham, Saul A; D'Aniello, Biagio; D'Cruze, Neil; da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Dallimer, Martin; Danquah, Emmanuel; Darvill, Ben; Dauber, Jens; Davis, Adrian L V; Dawson, Jeff; de Sassi, Claudio; de Thoisy, Benoit; Deheuvels, Olivier; Dejean, Alain; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Diekötter, Tim; Dolia, Jignasu V; Domínguez, Erwin; Dominguez-Haydar, Yamileth; Dorn, Silvia; Draper, Isabel; Dreber, Niels; Dumont, Bertrand; Dures, Simon G; Dynesius, Mats; Edenius, Lars; Eggleton, Paul; Eigenbrod, Felix; Elek, Zoltán; Entling, Martin H; Esler, Karen J; de Lima, Ricardo F; Faruk, Aisyah; Farwig, Nina; Fayle, Tom M; Felicioli, Antonio; Felton, Annika M; Fensham, Roderick J; Fernandez, Ignacio C; Ferreira, Catarina C; Ficetola, Gentile F; Fiera, Cristina; Filgueiras, Bruno K C; Fırıncıoğlu, Hüseyin K; Flaspohler, David; Floren, Andreas; Fonte, Steven J; Fournier, Anne; Fowler, Robert E; Franzén, Markus; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Fredriksson, Gabriella M; Freire, Geraldo B; Frizzo, Tiago L M; Fukuda, Daisuke; Furlani, Dario; Gaigher, René; Ganzhorn, Jörg U; García, Karla P; Garcia-R, Juan C; Garden, Jenni G; Garilleti, Ricardo; Ge, Bao-Ming; Gendreau-Berthiaume, Benoit; Gerard, Philippa J; Gheler-Costa, Carla; Gilbert, Benjamin; Giordani, Paolo; Giordano, Simonetta; Golodets, Carly; Gomes, Laurens G L; Gould, Rachelle K; Goulson, Dave; Gove, Aaron D; Granjon, Laurent; Grass, Ingo; Gray, Claudia L; Grogan, James; Gu, Weibin; Guardiola, Moisès; Gunawardene, Nihara R; Gutierrez, Alvaro G; Gutiérrez-Lamus, Doris L; Haarmeyer, Daniela H; Hanley, Mick E; Hanson, Thor; Hashim, Nor R; Hassan, Shombe N; Hatfield, Richard G; Hawes, Joseph E; Hayward, Matt W; Hébert, Christian; Helden, Alvin J; Henden, John-André; Henschel, Philipp; Hernández, Lionel; Herrera, James P; Herrmann, Farina; Herzog, Felix; Higuera-Diaz, Diego; Hilje, Branko; Höfer, Hubert; Hoffmann, Anke; Horgan, Finbarr G; Hornung, Elisabeth; Horváth, Roland; Hylander, Kristoffer; Isaacs-Cubides, Paola; Ishida, Hiroaki; Ishitani, Masahiro; Jacobs, Carmen T; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Jauker, Birgit; Hernández, F Jiménez; Johnson, McKenzie F; Jolli, Virat; Jonsell, Mats; Juliani, S Nur; Jung, Thomas S; Kapoor, Vena; Kappes, Heike; Kati, Vassiliki; Katovai, Eric; Kellner, Klaus; Kessler, Michael; Kirby, Kathryn R; Kittle, Andrew M; Knight, Mairi E; Knop, Eva; Kohler, Florian; Koivula, Matti; Kolb, Annette; Kone, Mouhamadou; Kőrösi, Ádám; Krauss, Jochen; Kumar, Ajith; Kumar, Raman; Kurz, David J; Kutt, Alex S; Lachat, Thibault; Lantschner, Victoria; Lara, Francisco; Lasky, Jesse R; Latta, Steven C; Laurance, William F; Lavelle, Patrick; Le Féon, Violette; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Légaré, Jean-Philippe; Lehouck, Valérie; Lencinas, María V; Lentini, Pia E; Letcher, Susan G; Li, Qi; Litchwark, Simon A; Littlewood, Nick A; Liu, Yunhui; Lo-Man-Hung, Nancy; López-Quintero, Carlos A; Louhaichi, Mounir; Lövei, Gabor L; Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban; Luja, Victor H; Luskin, Matthew S; MacSwiney G, M Cristina; Maeto, Kaoru; Magura, Tibor; Mallari, Neil Aldrin; Malone, Louise A; Malonza, Patrick K; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Mandujano, Salvador; Måren, Inger E; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Marsh, Charles J; Marshall, E J P; Martínez, Eliana; Martínez Pastur, Guillermo; Moreno Mateos, David; Mayfield, Margaret M; Mazimpaka, Vicente; McCarthy, Jennifer L; McCarthy, Kyle P; McFrederick, Quinn S; McNamara, Sean; Medina, Nagore G; Medina, Rafael; Mena, Jose L; Mico, Estefania; Mikusinski, Grzegorz; Milder, Jeffrey C; Miller, James R; Miranda-Esquivel, Daniel R; Moir, Melinda L; Morales, Carolina L; Muchane, Mary N; Muchane, Muchai; Mudri-Stojnic, Sonja; Munira, A Nur; Muoñz-Alonso, Antonio; Munyekenye, B F; Naidoo, Robin; Naithani, A; Nakagawa, Michiko; Nakamura, Akihiro; Nakashima, Yoshihiro; Naoe, Shoji; Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Navarrete Gutierrez, Dario A; Navarro-Iriarte, Luis; Ndang'ang'a, Paul K; Neuschulz, Eike L; Ngai, Jacqueline T; Nicolas, Violaine; Nilsson, Sven G; Noreika, Norbertas; Norfolk, Olivia; Noriega, Jorge Ari; Norton, David A; Nöske, Nicole M; Nowakowski, A Justin; Numa, Catherine; O'Dea, Niall; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Oduro, William; Oertli, Sabine; Ofori-Boateng, Caleb; Oke, Christopher Omamoke; Oostra, Vicencio; Osgathorpe, Lynne M; Otavo, Samuel Eduardo; Page, Navendu V; Paritsis, Juan; Parra-H, Alejandro; Parry, Luke; Pe'er, Guy; Pearman, Peter B; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Pélissier, Raphaël; Peres, Carlos A; Peri, Pablo L; Persson, Anna S; Petanidou, Theodora; Peters, Marcell K; Pethiyagoda, Rohan S; Phalan, Ben; Philips, T Keith; Pillsbury, Finn C; Pincheira-Ulbrich, Jimmy; Pineda, Eduardo; Pino, Joan; Pizarro-Araya, Jaime; Plumptre, A J; Poggio, Santiago L; Politi, Natalia; Pons, Pere; Poveda, Katja; Power, Eileen F; Presley, Steven J; Proença, Vânia; Quaranta, Marino; Quintero, Carolina; Rader, Romina; Ramesh, B R; Ramirez-Pinilla, Martha P; Ranganathan, Jai; Rasmussen, Claus; Redpath-Downing, Nicola A; Reid, J Leighton; Reis, Yana T; Rey Benayas, José M; Rey-Velasco, Juan Carlos; Reynolds, Chevonne; Ribeiro, Danilo Bandini; Richards, Miriam H; Richardson, Barbara A; Richardson, Michael J; Ríos, Rodrigo Macip; Robinson, Richard; Robles, Carolina A; Römbke, Jörg; Romero-Duque, Luz Piedad; Rös, Matthias; Rosselli, Loreta; Rossiter, Stephen J; Roth, Dana S; Roulston, T'ai H; Rousseau, Laurent; Rubio, André V; Ruel, Jean-Claude; Sadler, Jonathan P; Sáfián, Szabolcs; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Sam, Katerina; Samnegård, Ulrika; Santana, Joana; Santos, Xavier; Savage, Jade; Schellhorn, Nancy A; Schilthuizen, Menno; Schmiedel, Ute; Schmitt, Christine B; Schon, Nicole L; Schüepp, Christof; Schumann, Katharina; Schweiger, Oliver; Scott, Dawn M; Scott, Kenneth A; Sedlock, Jodi L; Seefeldt, Steven S; Shahabuddin, Ghazala; Shannon, Graeme; Sheil, Douglas; Sheldon, Frederick H; Shochat, Eyal; Siebert, Stefan J; Silva, Fernando A B; Simonetti, Javier A; Slade, Eleanor M; Smith, Jo; Smith-Pardo, Allan H; Sodhi, Navjot S; Somarriba, Eduardo J; Sosa, Ramón A; Soto Quiroga, Grimaldo; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues; Starzomski, Brian M; Stefanescu, Constanti; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stouffer, Philip C; Stout, Jane C; Strauch, Ayron M; Struebig, Matthew J; Su, Zhimin; Suarez-Rubio, Marcela; Sugiura, Shinji; Summerville, Keith S; Sung, Yik-Hei; Sutrisno, Hari; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Teder, Tiit; Threlfall, Caragh G; Tiitsaar, Anu; Todd, Jacqui H; Tonietto, Rebecca K; Torre, Ignasi; Tóthmérész, Béla; Tscharntke, Teja; Turner, Edgar C; Tylianakis, Jason M; Uehara-Prado, Marcio; Urbina-Cardona, Nicolas; Vallan, Denis; Vanbergen, Adam J; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vassilev, Kiril; Verboven, Hans A F; Verdasca, Maria João; Verdú, José R; Vergara, Carlos H; Vergara, Pablo M; Verhulst, Jort; Virgilio, Massimiliano; Vu, Lien Van; Waite, Edward M; Walker, Tony R; Wang, Hua-Feng; Wang, Yanping; Watling, James I; Weller, Britta; Wells, Konstans; Westphal, Catrin; Wiafe, Edward D; Williams, Christopher D; Willig, Michael R; Woinarski, John C Z; Wolf, Jan H D; Wolters, Volkmar; Woodcock, Ben A; Wu, Jihua; Wunderle, Joseph M; Yamaura, Yuichi; Yoshikura, Satoko; Yu, Douglas W; Zaitsev, Andrey S; Zeidler, Juliane; Zou, Fasheng; Collen, Ben; Ewers, Rob M; Mace, Georgina M; Purves, Drew W; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purvis, Andy

2017-01-01

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Comparison of three-dimensional parameters of Halo CMEs using three cone models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na, H.; Moon, Y.; Jang, S.; Lee, K.

2012-12-01

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are a major cause of geomagnetic storms and their three dimensional structures are important for space weather. In this study, we compare three cone models: an elliptical cone model, an ice-cream cone model, and an asymmetric cone model. These models allow us to determine the three dimensional parameters of HCMEs such as radial speed, angular width, and the angle (γ) between sky plane and cone axis. We compare these parameters obtained from three models using 62 well-observed HCMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO from 2001 to 2002. Then we obtain the root mean square error (RMS error) between maximum measured projection speeds and their calculated projection speeds from the cone models. As a result, we find that the radial speeds obtained from the models are well correlated with one another (R > 0.84). The correlation coefficients between angular widths are ranges from 0.04 to 0.53 and those between γ values are from -0.15 to 0.47, which are much smaller than expected. The reason may be due to different assumptions and methods. The RMS errors between the maximum measured projection speeds and the maximum estimated projection speeds of the elliptical cone model, the ice-cream cone model, and the asymmetric cone model are 213 km/s, 254 km/s, and 267 km/s, respectively. And we obtain the correlation coefficients between the location from the models and the flare location (R > 0.75). Finally, we discuss strengths and weaknesses of these models in terms of space weather application.

A tool to aid the comparison of improvement projects for the Virginia Department of Transportation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

The goal of this effort is to assist the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) in improving the comparison in planning of potential primary and secondary roadway improvement projects. Historical projects that have been implemented or considere...

Validation of 131I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

PubMed Central

Zvonova, I.; Krajewski, P.; Berkovsky, V.; Ammann, M.; Duffa, C.; Filistovic, V.; Homma, T.; Kanyar, B.; Nedveckaite, T.; Simon, S.L.; Vlasov, O.; Webbe-Wood, D.

2009-01-01

Within the project “Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety” (EMRAS) organized by the IAEA in 2003 experimental data of 131I measurements following the Chernobyl accident in the Plavsk district of Tula region, Russia were used to validate the calculations of some radioecological transfer models. Nine models participated in the inter-comparison. Levels of 137Cs soil contamination in all the settlements and 131I/137Cs isotopic ratios in the depositions in some locations were used as the main input information. 370 measurements of 131I content in thyroid of townspeople and villagers, and 90 measurements of 131I concentration in milk were used for validation of the model predictions. A remarkable improvement in models performance comparing with previous inter-comparison exercise was demonstrated. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three relative to the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten. PMID:19783331

Soil Moisture Project Evaluation Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilbert, R. H. (Editor)

1980-01-01

Approaches planned or being developed for measuring and modeling soil moisture parameters are discussed. Topics cover analysis of spatial variability of soil moisture as a function of terrain; the value of soil moisture information in developing stream flow data; energy/scene interactions; applications of satellite data; verifying soil water budget models; soil water profile/soil temperature profile models; soil moisture sensitivity analysis; combinations of the thermal model and microwave; determing planetary roughness and field roughness; how crust or a soil layer effects microwave return; truck radar; and truck/aircraft radar comparison.

Solar irradiance reduction to counteract radiative forcing from a quadrupling of CO2: climate responses simulated by four earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, H.; Alterskjær, K.; Karam, D. Bou; Boucher, O.; Jones, A.; Kristjánsson, J. E.; Niemeier, U.; Schulz, M.; Aaheim, A.; Benduhn, F.; Lawrence, M.; Timmreck, C.

2012-06-01

In this study we compare the response of four state-of-the-art Earth system models to climate engineering under scenario G1 of two model intercomparison projects: GeoMIP (Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project) and IMPLICC (EU project "Implications and risks of engineering solar radiation to limit climate change"). In G1, the radiative forcing from an instantaneous quadrupling of the CO2 concentration, starting from the preindustrial level, is balanced by a reduction of the solar constant. Model responses to the two counteracting forcings in G1 are compared to the preindustrial climate in terms of global means and regional patterns and their robustness. While the global mean surface air temperature in G1 remains almost unchanged compared to the control simulation, the meridional temperature gradient is reduced in all models. Another robust response is the global reduction of precipitation with strong effects in particular over North and South America and northern Eurasia. In comparison to the climate response to a quadrupling of CO2 alone, the temperature responses are small in experiment G1. Precipitation responses are, however, in many regions of comparable magnitude but globally of opposite sign.

Statistical properties of the time histories of cosmic gamma-ray bursts detected by the BATSE experiment of the Compton gamma-ray observatory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sagdeev, Roald

1995-01-01

The main scientific objectives of the project were: (1) Calculation of average time history for different subsets of BATSE gamma-ray bursts; (2) Comparison of averaged parameters and averaged time history for different Burst And Transient Source Experiments (BASTE) Gamma Ray Bursts (GRB's) sets; (3) Comparison of results obtained with BATSE data with those obtained with APEX experiment at PHOBOS mission; and (4) Use the results of (1)-(3) to compare current models of gamma-ray bursts sources.

Musculoskeletal Modeling Component of the NASA Digital Astronaut Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, B. E.; Pennline, J. A.; Stalker, A. R.; Mulugeta, L.; Myers, J. G.

2011-01-01

The NASA Digital Astronaut Project s (DAP) objective is to provide computational tools that support research of the physiological response to low gravity environments and analyses of how changes cause health and safety risks to the astronauts and to the success of the mission. The spaceflight risk associated with muscle atrophy is impaired performance due to reduced muscle mass, strength and endurance. Risks of early onset of osteoporosis and bone fracture are among the spaceflight risks associated with loss of bone mineral density. METHODS: Tools under development include a neuromuscular model, a biomechanical model and a bone remodeling model. The neuromuscular model will include models of neuromuscular drive, muscle atrophy, fiber morphology and metabolic processes as a function of time in space. Human movement will be modeled with the biomechanical model, using muscle and bone model parameters at various states. The bone remodeling model will allow analysis of bone turnover, loss and adaptation. A comprehensive trade study was completed to identify the current state of the art in musculoskeletal modeling. The DAP musculoskeletal models will be developed using a combination of existing commercial software and academic research codes identified in the study, which will be modified for use in human spaceflight research. These individual models are highly dependent upon each other and will be integrated together once they reach sufficient levels of maturity. ANALYSES: The analyses performed with these models will include comparison of different countermeasure exercises for optimizing effectiveness and comparison of task requirements and the state of strength and endurance of a crew member at a particular time in a mission. DISCUSSION: The DAP musculoskeletal model has the potential to complement research conducted on spaceflight induced changes to the musculoskeletal system. It can help with hypothesis formation, identification of causative mechanisms and supplementing small data samples.

MODELING THE FATE OF TOLUENE IN A CHAMBER WITH ALFALFA PLANTS 2. NUMERICAL RESULTS AND COMPARISON STUDY. (R825549C062)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

COMPARISON OF N2O EMISSIONS FROM SOILS AT THREE TEMPERATE AGRICULTURAL SITES: SIMULATIONS OF YEAR-ROUND MEASUREMENTS BY FOUR MODELS. (R824993)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

There Is a World outside of Experimental Designs: Using Twins to Investigate Causation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hart, Sara A.; Taylor, Jeanette; Schatschneider, Christopher

2013-01-01

This study introduces a co-twin control method commonly used in the medical literature but not often within educational research. This method allows for a comparison of twins discordant for an "exposure," approximating alternative outcomes in the counterfactual model. Example analyses use data drawn from the Florida Twin Project on…

MODIFICATION OF AEROSOL MASS AND SIZE DISTRIBUTION DUE TO AQUEOUS-PHASE SO2 OXIDATION IN CLOUDS: COMPARISONS OF SEVERAL MODELS. (R827929)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

World-Wide Web: The Information Universe.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berners-Lee, Tim; And Others

1992-01-01

Describes the World-Wide Web (W3) project, which is designed to create a global information universe using techniques of hypertext, information retrieval, and wide area networking. Discussion covers the W3 data model, W3 architecture, the document naming scheme, protocols, document formats, comparison with other systems, experience with the W3…

High-accuracy contouring using projection moiré

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sciammarella, Cesar A.; Lamberti, Luciano; Sciammarella, Federico M.

2005-09-01

Shadow and projection moiré are the oldest forms of moiré to be used in actual technical applications. In spite of this fact and the extensive number of papers that have been published on this topic, the use of shadow moiré as an accurate tool that can compete with alternative devices poses very many problems that go to the very essence of the mathematical models used to obtain contour information from fringe pattern data. In this paper some recent developments on the projection moiré method are presented. Comparisons between the results obtained with the projection method and the results obtained by mechanical devices that operate with contact probes are presented. These results show that the use of projection moiré makes it possible to achieve the same accuracy that current mechanical touch probe devices can provide.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Haywood, Alan M.; Jungclaus, Johann H.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albani, Samuel; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brierley, Chris; Crucifix, Michel; Dolan, Aisling; Fernandez-Donado, Laura; Fischer, Hubertus; Hopcroft, Peter O.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Lambert, Fabrice; Lunt, Daniel J.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Peltier, W. Richard; Phipps, Steven J.; Roche, Didier M.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Tarasov, Lev; Valdes, Paul J.; Zhang, Qiong; Zhou, Tianjun

2018-03-01

This paper is the first of a series of four GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) - Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016).The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21 000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127 000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.

A comparison of two Stokes ice sheet models applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Tong; Price, Stephen F.; Ju, Lili

Here, we present a comparison of the numerics and simulation results for two "full" Stokes ice sheet models, FELIX-S (Leng et al. 2012) and Elmer/Ice. The models are applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d). For the diagnostic experiment (P75D) the two models give similar results (< 2 % difference with respect to along-flow velocities) when using identical geometries and computational meshes, which we interpret as an indication of inherent consistencies and similarities between the two models. For the standard (Stnd), P75S, and P75R prognostic experiments, we find that FELIX-S (Elmer/Ice) grounding linesmore » are relatively more retreated (advanced), results that are consistent with minor differences observed in the diagnostic experiment results and that we show to be due to different choices in the implementation of basal boundary conditions in the two models. While we are not able to argue for the relative favorability of either implementation, we do show that these differences decrease with increasing horizontal (i.e., both along- and across-flow) grid resolution and that grounding-line positions for FELIX-S and Elmer/Ice converge to within the estimated truncation error for Elmer/Ice. Stokes model solutions are often treated as an accuracy metric in model intercomparison experiments, but computational cost may not always allow for the use of model resolution within the regime of asymptotic convergence. In this case, we propose that an alternative estimate for the uncertainty in the grounding-line position is the span of grounding-line positions predicted by multiple Stokes models.« less

A comparison of two Stokes ice sheet models applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d)

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Tong; Price, Stephen F.; Ju, Lili; ...

2017-01-25

Here, we present a comparison of the numerics and simulation results for two "full" Stokes ice sheet models, FELIX-S (Leng et al. 2012) and Elmer/Ice. The models are applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d). For the diagnostic experiment (P75D) the two models give similar results (< 2 % difference with respect to along-flow velocities) when using identical geometries and computational meshes, which we interpret as an indication of inherent consistencies and similarities between the two models. For the standard (Stnd), P75S, and P75R prognostic experiments, we find that FELIX-S (Elmer/Ice) grounding linesmore » are relatively more retreated (advanced), results that are consistent with minor differences observed in the diagnostic experiment results and that we show to be due to different choices in the implementation of basal boundary conditions in the two models. While we are not able to argue for the relative favorability of either implementation, we do show that these differences decrease with increasing horizontal (i.e., both along- and across-flow) grid resolution and that grounding-line positions for FELIX-S and Elmer/Ice converge to within the estimated truncation error for Elmer/Ice. Stokes model solutions are often treated as an accuracy metric in model intercomparison experiments, but computational cost may not always allow for the use of model resolution within the regime of asymptotic convergence. In this case, we propose that an alternative estimate for the uncertainty in the grounding-line position is the span of grounding-line positions predicted by multiple Stokes models.« less

Developing Best Practices for Detecting Change at Marine Renewable Energy Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linder, H. L.; Horne, J. K.

2016-02-01

In compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), an evaluation of environmental effects is mandatory for obtaining permits for any Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) project in the US. Evaluation includes an assessment of baseline conditions and on-going monitoring during operation to determine if biological conditions change relative to the baseline. Currently, there are no best practices for the analysis of MRE monitoring data. We have developed an approach to evaluate and recommend analytic models used to characterize and detect change in biological monitoring data. The approach includes six steps: review current MRE monitoring practices, identify candidate models to analyze data, fit models to a baseline dataset, develop simulated scenarios of change, evaluate model fit to simulated data, and produce recommendations on the choice of analytic model for monitoring data. An empirical data set from a proposed tidal turbine site at Admiralty Inlet, Puget Sound, Washington was used to conduct the model evaluation. Candidate models that were evaluated included: linear regression, time series, and nonparametric models. Model fit diagnostics Root-Mean-Square-Error and Mean-Absolute-Scaled-Error were used to measure accuracy of predicted values from each model. A power analysis was used to evaluate the ability of each model to measure and detect change from baseline conditions. As many of these models have yet to be applied in MRE monitoring studies, results of this evaluation will generate comprehensive guidelines on choice of model to detect change in environmental monitoring data from MRE sites. The creation of standardized guidelines for model selection enables accurate comparison of change between life stages of a MRE project, within life stages to meet real time regulatory requirements, and comparison of environmental changes among MRE sites.

GCSS Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Ruei-Fong; Starr, David OC.; DeMott, Paul J.; Cotton, Richard; Jensen, Eric; Sassen, Kenneth; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project, a project of GCSS Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2), involves the systematic comparison of current models of ice crystal nucleation and growth for specified, typical, cirrus cloud environments. The goal of this project is to document and understand the factors resulting in significant inter-model differences. The intent is to foment research leading to model improvement and validation. In Phase 1 of the project reported here, simulated cirrus cloud microphysical properties are compared for situations of "warm" (-40 C) and "cold" (-60 C) cirrus subject to updrafts of 4, 20 and 100 cm/s, respectively. Five models participated. These models employ explicit microphysical schemes wherein the size distribution of each class of particles (aerosols and ice crystals) is resolved into bins. Simulations are made including both homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanisms. A single initial aerosol population of sulfuric acid particles is prescribed for all simulations. To isolate the treatment of the homogeneous freezing (of haze drops) nucleation process, the heterogeneous nucleation mechanism is disabled for a second parallel set of simulations. Qualitative agreement is found for the homogeneous-nucleation-only simulations, e.g., the number density of nucleated ice crystals increases with the strength of the prescribed updraft. However, non-negligible quantitative differences are found. Detailed analysis reveals that the homogeneous nucleation formulation, aerosol size, ice crystal growth rate (particularly the deposition coefficient), and water vapor uptake rate are critical components that lead to differences in predicted microphysics. Systematic bias exists between results based on a modified classical theory approach and models using an effective freezing temperature approach to the treatment of nucleation. Each approach is constrained by critical freezing data from laboratory studies, but each includes assumptions that can only be justified by further laboratory data. Consequently, it is not yet clear if the two approaches can be made consistent. Large haze particles may deviate considerably from equilibrium size in moderate to strong updrafts (20-100 cm/s) at -60 C when the commonly invoked equilibrium assumption is lifted. The resulting difference in particle-size-dependent solution concentration of haze particles may significantly affect the ice nucleation rate during the initial nucleation interval. The uptake rate for water vapor excess by ice crystals is another key component regulating the total number of nucleated ice crystals. This rate, the product of ice number concentration and ice crystal diffusional growth rate, which is sensitive to the deposition coefficient when ice particles are small, partially controls the peak nucleation rate achieved in an air parcel and the duration of the active nucleation time period. The effects of heterogeneous nucleation are most pronounced in weak updraft situations. Vapor competition by the nucleated (heterogeneous) ice crystals limits the achieved ice supersaturation and thus suppresses the contribution of homogeneous nucleation. Correspondingly, ice crystal number density is markedly reduced. Definitive laboratory and atmospheric benchmark data are needed for the heterogeneous nucleation process. Inter-model differences are correspondingly greater than in the case of the homogeneous nucleation process acting alone.

Diagnostic Studies With GLA Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salstein, David A.

1997-01-01

Assessments of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System-1 Data Assimilation System (GEOS-1 DAS) regarding heating rates, energetics and angular momentum quantities were made. These diagnostics can be viewed as measures of climate variability. Comparisons with the NOAA/NCEP reanalysis system of momentum and energetics diagnostics are included. Water vapor and angular momentum are diagnosed in many models, including those of NASA, as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. Relevant preprints are included herein.

Project Loon based augmentation for global ionospheric modeling over Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cheng; Shi, Chuang; Zhang, Hongping

2017-04-01

Global ionospheric products of vertical total electron content (VTEC) derived from GNSS measurements may have low accuracy over oceans and southern latitudes where there are not rich observations. Project Loon provides a great opportunity to enhance the measurements over those areas. In this contribution, a simulation of Project Loon based augmentation for global ionospheric modeling is performed by using the international reference ionosphere (IRI) which could simulate VTEC measurements for the balloons. The performance of the enhanced method based on simulation of Project Loon is investigated by comparing with VTEC maps from Ionosphere Associate Analysis Centers (IAACs) as well as IGS final GIMs. The comparison indicates that there is a better consistency between the VTEC maps by the enhanced method and IGS final GIMs. Also, obvious improvements of RMS maps in GIMs for the middle latitudes and southern latitudes are enabled by the augmentation of Project Loon. Additionally, JASON data are used to validate the specific improvement of the VTEC maps. The results show that the performance of VTEC maps is improved slightly, especially in southern latitudes. It is possible that the VTEC maps could be improved significantly by using real GPS measurements from balloons of Project Loon in the near future.

Project Loon based augmentation for global ionospheric modeling over Southern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Wang, Cheng; Shi, Chuang; Zhang, Hongping

2017-04-06

Global ionospheric products of vertical total electron content (VTEC) derived from GNSS measurements may have low accuracy over oceans and southern latitudes where there are not rich observations. Project Loon provides a great opportunity to enhance the measurements over those areas. In this contribution, a simulation of Project Loon based augmentation for global ionospheric modeling is performed by using the international reference ionosphere (IRI) which could simulate VTEC measurements for the balloons. The performance of the enhanced method based on simulation of Project Loon is investigated by comparing with VTEC maps from Ionosphere Associate Analysis Centers (IAACs) as well as IGS final GIMs. The comparison indicates that there is a better consistency between the VTEC maps by the enhanced method and IGS final GIMs. Also, obvious improvements of RMS maps in GIMs for the middle latitudes and southern latitudes are enabled by the augmentation of Project Loon. Additionally, JASON data are used to validate the specific improvement of the VTEC maps. The results show that the performance of VTEC maps is improved slightly, especially in southern latitudes. It is possible that the VTEC maps could be improved significantly by using real GPS measurements from balloons of Project Loon in the near future.

Project Loon based augmentation for global ionospheric modeling over Southern Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Wang, Cheng; Shi, Chuang; Zhang, Hongping

2017-01-01

Global ionospheric products of vertical total electron content (VTEC) derived from GNSS measurements may have low accuracy over oceans and southern latitudes where there are not rich observations. Project Loon provides a great opportunity to enhance the measurements over those areas. In this contribution, a simulation of Project Loon based augmentation for global ionospheric modeling is performed by using the international reference ionosphere (IRI) which could simulate VTEC measurements for the balloons. The performance of the enhanced method based on simulation of Project Loon is investigated by comparing with VTEC maps from Ionosphere Associate Analysis Centers (IAACs) as well as IGS final GIMs. The comparison indicates that there is a better consistency between the VTEC maps by the enhanced method and IGS final GIMs. Also, obvious improvements of RMS maps in GIMs for the middle latitudes and southern latitudes are enabled by the augmentation of Project Loon. Additionally, JASON data are used to validate the specific improvement of the VTEC maps. The results show that the performance of VTEC maps is improved slightly, especially in southern latitudes. It is possible that the VTEC maps could be improved significantly by using real GPS measurements from balloons of Project Loon in the near future. PMID:28383058

Validation and Comparison of 2D and 3D Codes for Nearshore Motion of Long Waves Using Benchmark Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velioǧlu, Deniz; Cevdet Yalçıner, Ahmet; Zaytsev, Andrey

2016-04-01

Tsunamis are huge waves with long wave periods and wave lengths that can cause great devastation and loss of life when they strike a coast. The interest in experimental and numerical modeling of tsunami propagation and inundation increased considerably after the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. In this study, two numerical codes, FLOW 3D and NAMI DANCE, that analyze tsunami propagation and inundation patterns are considered. Flow 3D simulates linear and nonlinear propagating surface waves as well as long waves by solving three-dimensional Navier-Stokes (3D-NS) equations. NAMI DANCE uses finite difference computational method to solve 2D depth-averaged linear and nonlinear forms of shallow water equations (NSWE) in long wave problems, specifically tsunamis. In order to validate these two codes and analyze the differences between 3D-NS and 2D depth-averaged NSWE equations, two benchmark problems are applied. One benchmark problem investigates the runup of long waves over a complex 3D beach. The experimental setup is a 1:400 scale model of Monai Valley located on the west coast of Okushiri Island, Japan. Other benchmark problem is discussed in 2015 National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Annual meeting in Portland, USA. It is a field dataset, recording the Japan 2011 tsunami in Hilo Harbor, Hawaii. The computed water surface elevation and velocity data are compared with the measured data. The comparisons showed that both codes are in fairly good agreement with each other and benchmark data. The differences between 3D-NS and 2D depth-averaged NSWE equations are highlighted. All results are presented with discussions and comparisons. Acknowledgements: Partial support by Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region (JICA SATREPS - MarDiM Project), 603839 ASTARTE Project of EU, UDAP-C-12-14 project of AFAD Turkey, 108Y227, 113M556 and 213M534 projects of TUBITAK Turkey, RAPSODI (CONCERT_Dis-021) of CONCERT-Japan Joint Call and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality are all acknowledged.

Comparing observer models and feature selection methods for a task-based statistical assessment of digital breast tomsynthesis in reconstruction space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Subok; Zhang, George Z.; Zeng, Rongping; Myers, Kyle J.

2014-03-01

A task-based assessment of image quality1 for digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) can be done in either the projected or reconstructed data space. As the choice of observer models and feature selection methods can vary depending on the type of task and data statistics, we previously investigated the performance of two channelized- Hotelling observer models in conjunction with 2D Laguerre-Gauss (LG) and two implementations of partial least squares (PLS) channels along with that of the Hotelling observer in binary detection tasks involving DBT projections.2, 3 The difference in these observers lies in how the spatial correlation in DBT angular projections is incorporated in the observer's strategy to perform the given task. In the current work, we extend our method to the reconstructed data space of DBT. We investigate how various model observers including the aforementioned compare for performing the binary detection of a spherical signal embedded in structured breast phantoms with the use of DBT slices reconstructed via filtered back projection. We explore how well the model observers incorporate the spatial correlation between different numbers of reconstructed DBT slices while varying the number of projections. For this, relatively small and large scan angles (24° and 96°) are used for comparison. Our results indicate that 1) given a particular scan angle, the number of projections needed to achieve the best performance for each observer is similar across all observer/channel combinations, i.e., Np = 25 for scan angle 96° and Np = 13 for scan angle 24°, and 2) given these sufficient numbers of projections, the number of slices for each observer to achieve the best performance differs depending on the channel/observer types, which is more pronounced in the narrow scan angle case.

On solar geoengineering and climate uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacMartin, Douglas; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Rasch, Philip J.

2015-09-03

Uncertainty in the climate system response has been raised as a concern regarding solar geoengineering. Here we show that model projections of regional climate change outcomes may have greater agreement under solar geoengineering than with CO2 alone. We explore the effects of geoengineering on one source of climate system uncertainty by evaluating the inter-model spread across 12 climate models participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison project (GeoMIP). The model spread in regional temperature and precipitation changes is reduced with CO2 and a solar reduction, in comparison to the case with increased CO2 alone. That is, the intermodel spread in predictionsmore » of climate change and the model spread in the response to solar geoengineering are not additive but rather partially cancel. Furthermore, differences in efficacy explain most of the differences between models in their temperature response to an increase in CO2 that is offset by a solar reduction. These conclusions are important for clarifying geoengineering risks.« less

A general software reliability process simulation technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tausworthe, Robert C.

1991-01-01

The structure and rationale of the generalized software reliability process, together with the design and implementation of a computer program that simulates this process are described. Given assumed parameters of a particular project, the users of this program are able to generate simulated status timelines of work products, numbers of injected anomalies, and the progress of testing, fault isolation, repair, validation, and retest. Such timelines are useful in comparison with actual timeline data, for validating the project input parameters, and for providing data for researchers in reliability prediction modeling.

Comparative Study of the Volumetric Methods Calculation Using GNSS Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Şmuleac, Adrian; Nemeş, Iacob; Alina Creţan, Ioana; Sorina Nemeş, Nicoleta; Şmuleac, Laura

2017-10-01

This paper aims to achieve volumetric calculations for different mineral aggregates using different methods of analysis and also comparison of results. To achieve these comparative studies and presentation were chosen two software licensed, namely TopoLT 11.2 and Surfer 13. TopoLT program is a program dedicated to the development of topographic and cadastral plans. 3D terrain model, level courves and calculation of cut and fill volumes, including georeferencing of images. The program Surfer 13 is produced by Golden Software, in 1983 and is active mainly used in various fields such as agriculture, construction, geophysical, geotechnical engineering, GIS, water resources and others. It is also able to achieve GRID terrain model, to achieve the density maps using the method of isolines, volumetric calculations, 3D maps. Also, it can read different file types, including SHP, DXF and XLSX. In these paper it is presented a comparison in terms of achieving volumetric calculations using TopoLT program by two methods: a method where we choose a 3D model both for surface as well as below the top surface and a 3D model in which we choose a 3D terrain model for the bottom surface and another 3D model for the top surface. The comparison of the two variants will be made with data obtained from the realization of volumetric calculations with the program Surfer 13 generating GRID terrain model. The topographical measurements were performed with equipment from Leica GPS 1200 Series. Measurements were made using Romanian position determination system - ROMPOS which ensures accurate positioning of reference and coordinates ETRS through the National Network of GNSS Permanent Stations. GPS data processing was performed with the program Leica Geo Combined Office. For the volumetric calculating the GPS used point are in 1970 stereographic projection system and for the altitude the reference is 1975 the Black Sea projection system.

Deformation Response and Life of Metallic Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lissenden, Cliff J.

2005-01-01

The project was initially funded for one year (for $100,764) to investigate the potential of particulate reinforced metals for aeropropulsion applications and to generate fatigue results that quantify the mean stress effect for a titanium alloy matrix material (TIMETAL 21S). The project was continued for a second year (for $85,000) to more closely investigate cyclic deformation, especially ratcheting, of the titanium alloy matrix at elevated temperature. Equipment was purchased (for $19,000) to make the experimental program feasible; this equipment included an extensometer calibrator and a multi-channel signal conditioning amplifier. The project was continued for a third year ($50,000) to conduct cyclic relaxation experiments aimed at validating the elastic-viscoelastic-viscoplastic model that NASA GRC had developed for the titanium alloy. Finally, a one-year no cost extension was granted to enable continued analysis of the experimental results and model comparisons.

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

PubMed Central

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2018-01-01

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.

PubMed

Scanlon, Bridget R; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y; Müller Schmied, Hannes; van Beek, Ludovicus P H; Wiese, David N; Wada, Yoshihide; Long, Di; Reedy, Robert C; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F P

2018-02-06

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤-0.5 km 3 /y) and increasing (≥0.5 km 3 /y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km 3 /y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (-71 to 11 km 3 /y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71-82 km 3 /y) but negative for models (-450 to -12 km 3 /y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Customised search and comparison of in situ, satellite and model data for ocean modellers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamre, Torill; Vines, Aleksander; Lygre, Kjetil

2014-05-01

For the ocean modelling community, the amount of available data from historical and upcoming in situ sensor networks and satellite missions, provides an rich opportunity to validate and improve their simulation models. However, the problem of making the different data interoperable and intercomparable remains, due to, among others, differences in terminology and format used by different data providers and the different granularity provided by e.g. in situ data and ocean models. The GreenSeas project (Development of global plankton data base and model system for eco-climate early warning) aims to advance the knowledge and predictive capacities of how marine ecosystems will respond to global change. In the project, one specific objective has been to improve the technology for accessing historical plankton and associated environmental data sets, along with earth observation data and simulation outputs. To this end, we have developed a web portal enabling ocean modellers to easily search for in situ or satellite data overlapping in space and time, and compare the retrieved data with their model results. The in situ data are retrieved from a geo-spatial repository containing both historical and new physical, biological and chemical parameters for the Southern Ocean, Atlantic, Nordic Seas and the Arctic. The satellite-derived quantities of similar parameters from the same areas are retrieved from another geo-spatial repository established in the project. Both repositories are accessed through standard interfaces, using the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS), and OPeNDAP protocols, respectively. While the developed data repositories use standard terminology to describe the parameters, especially the measured in situ biological parameters are too fine grained to be immediately useful for modelling purposes. Therefore, the plankton parameters were grouped according to category, size and if available by element. This grouping was reflected in the web portal's graphical user interface, where the groups and subgroups were organized in a tree structure, enabling the modeller to quickly get an overview of available data, going into more detail (subgroups) if needed or staying at a higher level of abstraction (merging the parameters below) if this provided a better base for comparison with the model parameters. Once a suitable level of detail, as determined by the modeller, was decided, the system would retrieve available in situ parameters. The modellers could then select among the pre-defined models or upload his own model forecast file (in NetCDF/CF format), for comparison with the retrieved in situ data. The comparison can be shown in different kinds of plots (e.g. scatter plots), through simple statistical measures or near-coincident values of in situ of model points can be exported for further analysis in the modeller's own tools. During data search and presentation, the modeller can determine both query criteria and what associated metadata to include in the display and export of the retrieved data. Satellite-derived parameters can be queried and compared with model results in the same manner. With the developed prototype system, we have demonstrated that a customised tool for searching, presenting, comparing and exporting ocean data from multiple platforms (in situ, satellite, model), makes it easy to compare model results with independent observations. With further enhancement of functionality and inclusion of more data, we believe the resulting system can greatly benefit the wider community of ocean modellers looking for data and tools to validate their models.

Projected Heat Wave Characteristics over the Korean Peninsula During the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Jongsoo; Olson, Roman; An, Soon-Il

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures globally, and consequently more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves are likely to occur. Ambiguity in defining heat waves appropriately makes it difficult to compare changes in heat wave events over time. This study provides a quantitative definition of a heat wave and makes probabilistic heat wave projections for the Korean Peninsula under two global warming scenarios. Changes to heat waves under global warming are investigated using the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 30 coupled models participating in phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project. Probabilistic climate projections from multi-model ensembles have been constructed using both simple and weighted averaging. Results from both methods are similar and show that heat waves will be more intense, frequent, and longer lasting. These trends are more apparent under the RCP8.5 scenario as compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, typical heat waves are projected to become stronger than any heat wave experienced in the recent measurement record. Furthermore, under this scenario, it cannot be ruled out that Korea will experience heat wave conditions spanning almost an entire summer before the end of the 21st century.

Summary of FY15 results of benchmark modeling activities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arguello, J. Guadalupe

2015-08-01

Sandia is participating in the third phase of an is a contributing partner to a U.S.-German "Joint Project" entitled "Comparison of current constitutive models and simulation procedures on the basis of model calculations of the thermo-mechanical behavior and healing of rock salt." The first goal of the project is to check the ability of numerical modeling tools to correctly describe the relevant deformation phenomena in rock salt under various influences. Achieving this goal will lead to increased confidence in the results of numerical simulations related to the secure storage of radioactive wastes in rock salt, thereby enhancing the acceptance ofmore » the results. These results may ultimately be used to make various assertions regarding both the stability analysis of an underground repository in salt, during the operating phase, and the long-term integrity of the geological barrier against the release of harmful substances into the biosphere, in the post-operating phase.« less

Two-dimensional models of early-type fast rotating stars: the ESTER project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieutord, Michel

In this talk I present the latest results of the ESTER project that has taken up the challenge of building two dimensional (axisymmetric) models of stars rotating at any rotation rate. In particular, I focus on main sequence massive and intermediate mass stars. I show what should be expected in such stars as far as the differential rotation and the associated meridional circulation are concerned, notably the emergence of a Stewartson layer along the tangent cylinder of the core. I also indicate what may be inferred about the evolution of an intermediate-mass star at constant angular momentum and how Be stars may form. I finally give some comparisons between models and observations of the gravity darkening on some nearby fast rotators as it has been derived from interferometric observations. In passing, I also discuss how 2D models can help to recover the fundamental parameters of a star.

Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities

PubMed Central

Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.; Ferrier, Simon; Lorenz, David J.

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) assume species exist in isolation and do not influence one another's distributions, thus potentially limiting their ability to predict biodiversity patterns. Community-level models (CLMs) capitalize on species co-occurrences to fit shared environmental responses of species and communities, and therefore may result in more robust and transferable models. Here, we conduct a controlled comparison of five paired SDMs and CLMs across changing climates, using palaeoclimatic simulations and fossil-pollen records of eastern North America for the past 21 000 years. Both SDMs and CLMs performed poorly when projected to time periods that are temporally distant and climatically dissimilar from those in which they were fit; however, CLMs generally outperformed SDMs in these instances, especially when models were fit with sparse calibration datasets. Additionally, CLMs did not over-fit training data, unlike SDMs. The expected emergence of novel climates presents a major forecasting challenge for all models, but CLMs may better rise to this challenge by borrowing information from co-occurring taxa. PMID:26962143

Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werder, Mauro A.; de Fleurian, Basile; Creyts, Timothy T.; Damsgaard, Anders; Delaney, Ian; Dow, Christine F.; Gagliardini, Olivier; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Seguinot, Julien; Sommers, Aleah; Irarrazaval Bustos, Inigo; Downs, Jakob

2017-04-01

The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models (http://shmip.bitbucket.org). Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R-channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.

Comparison of Asymmetric and Ice-cream Cone Models for Halo Coronal Mass Ejections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na, H.; Moon, Y.

2011-12-01

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are major cause of the geomagnetic storms. To minimize the projection effect by coronagraph observation, several cone models have been suggested: an ice-cream cone model, an asymmetric cone model etc. These models allow us to determine the three dimensional parameters of HCMEs such as radial speed, angular width, and the angle between sky plane and central axis of the cone. In this study, we compare these parameters obtained from different models using 48 well-observed HCMEs from 2001 to 2002. And we obtain the root mean square error (RMS error) between measured projection speeds and calculated projection speeds for both cone models. As a result, we find that the radial speeds obtained from the models are well correlated with each other (R = 0.86), and the correlation coefficient of angular width is 0.6. The correlation coefficient of the angle between sky plane and central axis of the cone is 0.31, which is much smaller than expected. The reason may be due to the fact that the source locations of the asymmetric cone model are distributed near the center, while those of the ice-cream cone model are located in a wide range. The average RMS error of the asymmetric cone model (85.6km/s) is slightly smaller than that of the ice-cream cone model (87.8km/s).

Understanding the past to interpret the future: Comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2017-01-01

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.

Future Economics of Liver Transplantation: A 20-Year Cost Modeling Forecast and the Prospect of Bioengineering Autologous Liver Grafts

PubMed Central

Habka, Dany; Mann, David; Landes, Ronald; Soto-Gutierrez, Alejandro

2015-01-01

During the past 20 years liver transplantation has become the definitive treatment for most severe types of liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma, in both children and adults. In the U.S., roughly 16,000 individuals are on the liver transplant waiting list. Only 38% of them will receive a transplant due to the organ shortage. This paper explores another option: bioengineering an autologous liver graft. We developed a 20-year model projecting future demand for liver transplants, along with costs based on current technology. We compared these cost projections against projected costs to bioengineer autologous liver grafts. The model was divided into: 1) the epidemiology model forecasting the number of wait-listed patients, operated patients and postoperative patients; and 2) the treatment model forecasting costs (pre-transplant-related costs; transplant (admission)-related costs; and 10-year post-transplant-related costs) during the simulation period. The patient population was categorized using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. The number of patients on the waiting list was projected to increase 23% over 20 years while the weighted average treatment costs in the pre-liver transplantation phase were forecast to increase 83% in Year 20. Projected demand for livers will increase 10% in 10 years and 23% in 20 years. Total costs of liver transplantation are forecast to increase 33% in 10 years and 81% in 20 years. By comparison, the projected cost to bioengineer autologous liver grafts is $9.7M based on current catalog prices for iPS-derived liver cells. The model projects a persistent increase in need and cost of donor livers over the next 20 years that’s constrained by a limited supply of donor livers. The number of patients who die while on the waiting list will reflect this ever-growing disparity. Currently, bioengineering autologous liver grafts is cost prohibitive. However, costs will decline rapidly with the introduction of new manufacturing strategies and economies of scale. PMID:26177505

Future Economics of Liver Transplantation: A 20-Year Cost Modeling Forecast and the Prospect of Bioengineering Autologous Liver Grafts.

PubMed

Habka, Dany; Mann, David; Landes, Ronald; Soto-Gutierrez, Alejandro

2015-01-01

During the past 20 years liver transplantation has become the definitive treatment for most severe types of liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma, in both children and adults. In the U.S., roughly 16,000 individuals are on the liver transplant waiting list. Only 38% of them will receive a transplant due to the organ shortage. This paper explores another option: bioengineering an autologous liver graft. We developed a 20-year model projecting future demand for liver transplants, along with costs based on current technology. We compared these cost projections against projected costs to bioengineer autologous liver grafts. The model was divided into: 1) the epidemiology model forecasting the number of wait-listed patients, operated patients and postoperative patients; and 2) the treatment model forecasting costs (pre-transplant-related costs; transplant (admission)-related costs; and 10-year post-transplant-related costs) during the simulation period. The patient population was categorized using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. The number of patients on the waiting list was projected to increase 23% over 20 years while the weighted average treatment costs in the pre-liver transplantation phase were forecast to increase 83% in Year 20. Projected demand for livers will increase 10% in 10 years and 23% in 20 years. Total costs of liver transplantation are forecast to increase 33% in 10 years and 81% in 20 years. By comparison, the projected cost to bioengineer autologous liver grafts is $9.7M based on current catalog prices for iPS-derived liver cells. The model projects a persistent increase in need and cost of donor livers over the next 20 years that's constrained by a limited supply of donor livers. The number of patients who die while on the waiting list will reflect this ever-growing disparity. Currently, bioengineering autologous liver grafts is cost prohibitive. However, costs will decline rapidly with the introduction of new manufacturing strategies and economies of scale.

Ames expedited site characterization demonstration at the former manufactured gas plant site, Marshalltown, Iowa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bevolo, A.J.; Kjartanson, B.H.; Wonder, J.D.

1996-03-01

The goal of the Ames Expedited Site Characterization (ESC) project is to evaluate and promote both innovative technologies (IT) and state-of-the-practice technologies (SOPT) for site characterization and monitoring. In April and May 1994, the ESC project conducted site characterization, technology comparison, and stakeholder demonstration activities at a former manufactured gas plant (FMGP) owned by Iowa Electric Services (IES) Utilities, Inc., in Marshalltown, Iowa. Three areas of technology were fielded at the Marshalltown FMGP site: geophysical, analytical and data integration. The geophysical technologies are designed to assess the subsurface geological conditions so that the location, fate and transport of the targetmore » contaminants may be assessed and forecasted. The analytical technologies/methods are designed to detect and quantify the target contaminants. The data integration technology area consists of hardware and software systems designed to integrate all the site information compiled and collected into a conceptual site model on a daily basis at the site; this conceptual model then becomes the decision-support tool. Simultaneous fielding of different methods within each of the three areas of technology provided data for direct comparison of the technologies fielded, both SOPT and IT. This document reports the results of the site characterization, technology comparison, and ESC demonstration activities associated with the Marshalltown FMGP site. 124 figs., 27 tabs.« less

Report from the workshop on climate downscaling and its application in high Hawaiian Islands, September 16–17, 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helweg, David A.; Keener, Victoria; Burgett, Jeff M.

2016-07-14

In the subtropical and tropical Pacific islands, changing climate is predicted to influence precipitation and freshwater availability, and thus is predicted to impact ecosystems goods and services available to ecosystems and human communities. The small size of high Hawaiian Islands, plus their complex microlandscapes, require downscaling of global climate models to provide future projections of greater skill and spatial resolution. Two different climate modeling approaches (physics-based dynamical downscaling and statistics-based downscaling) have produced dissimilar projections. Because of these disparities, natural resource managers and decision makers have low confidence in using the modeling results and are therefore are unwilling to include climate-related projections in their decisions. In September 2015, the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC), the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC), and the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) program convened a 2-day facilitated workshop in which the two modeling teams, plus key model users and resource managers, were brought together for a comparison of the two approaches, culminating with a discussion of how to provide predictions that are useable by resource managers. The proceedings, discussions, and outcomes of this Workshop are summarized in this Open-File Report.

Process-oriented Observational Metrics for CMIP6 Climate Model Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, J. H.; Su, H.

2016-12-01

Observational metrics based on satellite observations have been developed and effectively applied during post-CMIP5 model evaluation and improvement projects. As new physics and parameterizations continue to be included in models for the upcoming CMIP6, it is important to continue objective comparisons between observations and model results. This talk will summarize the process-oriented observational metrics and methodologies for constraining climate models with A-Train satellite observations and support CMIP6 model assessments. We target parameters and processes related to atmospheric clouds and water vapor, which are critically important for Earth's radiative budget, climate feedbacks, and water and energy cycles, and thus reduce uncertainties in climate models.

The Transcriptome Analysis and Comparison Explorer--T-ACE: a platform-independent, graphical tool to process large RNAseq datasets of non-model organisms.

PubMed

Philipp, E E R; Kraemer, L; Mountfort, D; Schilhabel, M; Schreiber, S; Rosenstiel, P

2012-03-15

Next generation sequencing (NGS) technologies allow a rapid and cost-effective compilation of large RNA sequence datasets in model and non-model organisms. However, the storage and analysis of transcriptome information from different NGS platforms is still a significant bottleneck, leading to a delay in data dissemination and subsequent biological understanding. Especially database interfaces with transcriptome analysis modules going beyond mere read counts are missing. Here, we present the Transcriptome Analysis and Comparison Explorer (T-ACE), a tool designed for the organization and analysis of large sequence datasets, and especially suited for transcriptome projects of non-model organisms with little or no a priori sequence information. T-ACE offers a TCL-based interface, which accesses a PostgreSQL database via a php-script. Within T-ACE, information belonging to single sequences or contigs, such as annotation or read coverage, is linked to the respective sequence and immediately accessible. Sequences and assigned information can be searched via keyword- or BLAST-search. Additionally, T-ACE provides within and between transcriptome analysis modules on the level of expression, GO terms, KEGG pathways and protein domains. Results are visualized and can be easily exported for external analysis. We developed T-ACE for laboratory environments, which have only a limited amount of bioinformatics support, and for collaborative projects in which different partners work on the same dataset from different locations or platforms (Windows/Linux/MacOS). For laboratories with some experience in bioinformatics and programming, the low complexity of the database structure and open-source code provides a framework that can be customized according to the different needs of the user and transcriptome project.

Relevance of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection Data for Hydrodynamics and Water Quality Modelling of the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenberg, R.; Vigouroux, G.; Chen, Y.; Bring, A.; Kalantari, Z.; Prieto, C.; Destouni, G.

2017-12-01

The Baltic Sea, located in Northern Europe, is one of the world's largest body of brackish water, enclosed and surrounded by nine different countries. The magnitude of climate change may be particularly large in northern regions, and identifying its impacts on vulnerable inland waters and their runoff and nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea is an important and complex task. Exploration of such hydro-climatic impacts is needed to understand potential future changes in physical, ecological and water quality conditions in the regional coastal and marine waters. In this study, we investigate hydro-climatic changes and impacts on the Baltic Sea by synthesizing multi-model climate projection data from the CORDEX regional downscaling initiative (EURO- and Arctic- CORDEX domains, http://www.cordex.org/). We identify key hydro-climatic variable outputs of these models and assess model performance with regard to their projected temporal and spatial change behavior and impacts on different scales and coastal-marine parts, up to the whole Baltic Sea. Model spreading, robustness and impact implications for the Baltic Sea system are investigated for and through further use in simulations of coastal-marine hydrodynamics and water quality based on these key output variables and their change projections. Climate model robustness in this context is assessed by inter-model spreading analysis and observation data comparisons, while projected change implications are assessed by forcing of linked hydrodynamic and water quality modeling of the Baltic Sea based on relevant hydro-climatic outputs for inland water runoff and waterborne nutrient loading to the Baltic sea, as well as for conditions in the sea itself. This focused synthesis and analysis of hydro-climatically relevant output data of regional climate models facilitates assessment of reliability and uncertainty in projections of driver-impact changes of key importance for Baltic Sea physical, water quality and ecological conditions and their future evolution.

Dynamic Modeling of Process Technologies for Closed-Loop Water Recovery Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allada, Rama Kumar; Lange, Kevin; Anderson, Molly

2011-01-01

Detailed chemical process simulations are a useful tool in designing and optimizing complex systems and architectures for human life support. Dynamic and steady-state models of these systems help contrast the interactions of various operating parameters and hardware designs, which become extremely useful in trade-study analyses. NASA s Exploration Life Support technology development project recently made use of such models to compliment a series of tests on different waste water distillation systems. This paper presents dynamic simulations of chemical process for primary processor technologies including: the Cascade Distillation System (CDS), the Vapor Compression Distillation (VCD) system, the Wiped-Film Rotating Disk (WFRD), and post-distillation water polishing processes such as the Volatiles Removal Assembly (VRA) that were developed using the Aspen Custom Modeler and Aspen Plus process simulation tools. The results expand upon previous work for water recovery technology models and emphasize dynamic process modeling and results. The paper discusses system design, modeling details, and model results for each technology and presents some comparisons between the model results and available test data. Following these initial comparisons, some general conclusions and forward work are discussed.

The Transient Excitation and Oscillation Testing Technique Applied to a Captive Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-06-01

8217Kall io I 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT, TASK David W. Tayl.or Naval Ship Research and -OW UNIT NUMBERS...corrective tare terms (C’. 11 C35’ C 53 and C 55) used in calculating the nondimensional oscillat ion coff ticient s. Figures 7--14 contain comparisons of

Education for Sustainable Development in Ethnic Autonomous Areas of China: A Comparison of Two Curriculum Initiatives and Their Educational Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khoo, Yishin

2015-01-01

This paper examines the educational implications of two curriculum initiatives in China that have produced curricular materials promoting education for sustainable development (ESD) in minority-populated ethnic autonomous areas in China. The two curriculum projects present distinctive discourses, conceptions, models, frameworks and scopes of ESD…

Comparing Students' Scratch Skills with Their Computational Thinking Skills in Terms of Different Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oluk, Ali; Korkmaz, Özgen

2016-01-01

This study aimed to compare 5th graders' scores obtained from Scratch projects developed in the framework of Information Technologies and Software classes via Dr Scratch web tool with the scores obtained from Computational Thinking Levels Scale and to examine this comparison in terms of different variables. Correlational research model was…

The Identification and Comparison of the Tasks for the Occupational Role of Industrial Production Technologist.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nee, John G.

This paper describes a project designed to: (1) develop a model for determining occupational activity components to be used in any vocational-technical program, (2) produce a list of occupational activity components (tasks) for the occupational roles identified, (3) determine scores, ranks and percentages for each component from each occupational…

Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Technology Initiatives (NTIP). Delivery Order 0039: Statistical Comparison of Competing Material Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-01-01

adapted from Kass and Rafferty (1995) and Congdon (2001). Page 10 of 57 density adjusted for resin content, z, since resin contributes to the density...c.f.: Congdon , 2001). How to Download the WinBUGS Software Package BUGS was originally a statistical research project at the Medical Research...Likelihood Estimation,” July 2002, working paper to be published. 18) Congdon , Peter, Bayesian Statistical Modeling, Wiley, 2001 19) Cox, D. R. and

SGMM: Smart Grid Maturity Model. A Zero-depth Entry to Using the TSP: How TSP Was Used to Turn Around the SGMM Project that Was Drowning in Details

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-04

Compass Survey Questionnaire-based assessment yields maturity ratings and comparisons Navigation Process Expert-led workshops to complete... Compass and use results to develop consensus aspirations Training Overview Seminar and SGMM Navigator Course Partner Program License organizations...journey 19 SGMM Compass Survey Contains • One question for each expected characteristic in the model and • Attribute and performance questions

Integrated Digital Platform for the Valorization of a Cultural Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angheluţǎ, L. M.; Ratoiu, L.; Chelmus, A. I.; Rǎdvan, R.; Petculescu, A.

2017-05-01

This paper presents a newly started demonstrative project regarding the implementation and validation of an interdisciplinary research model for the Aluniş-Bozioru (Romania) cultural landscape, with the development of an online interactive digital product. This digital product would provide complementary data about the historical monuments and their environment, and also, constant updates and statistical comparison in order to generate an accurate evaluation of the state of conservation for this specific cultural landscape. Furthermore, the resulted information will contribute in the decision making process for the regional development policies. The project is developed by an interdisciplinary joint team of researchers consisted of technical scientists with great experience in advanced non-invasive characterization of the cultural heritage (NIRD for Optoelectronics - INOE 2000) and a group of experts from geology and biology (Romanian Academy's "Emil Racoviţǎ" Institute of Speleology - ISER). Resulted scientific data will include: 3D digital models of the selected historical monuments, microclimate monitoring, Ground Penetrating Radar survey, airborne LIDAR, multispectral and thermal imaging, soil and rock characterization, environmental studies. This digital product is constituted by an intuitive website with a database that allows data corroboration, visualization and comparison of the 3D digital models, as well as a digital mapping in the GIS system.

Historical and Future Projected Hydrologic Extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.

2016-12-01

There is an increasing body of evidence from observed data that climate variability combined with regional climate change has had a significant impact on hydrologic cycles, including both seasonal patterns of runoff and altered hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods and extreme stormwater events). To better understand changing patterns of extreme high flows in Midwest and Great Lakes region, we analyzed long-term historical observations of peak streamflow at different gaging stations. We also conducted hydrologic model experiments using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) at 1/16 degree resolution in order to explore sensitivity of annual peak streamflow, both historically and under temperature and precipitation changes for several future periods. For future projections, the Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling approach applied to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison, Phase5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios was used to produce driving data for the VIC hydrologic model. Preliminary results for several test basins in the Midwest support the hypothesis that there are consistent and statistically significant changes in the mean annual flood starting before and after about 1975. Future projections using hydrologic model simulations support the hypothesis of higher peak flows due to warming and increasing precipitation projected for the 21st century. We will extend this preliminary analysis using observed data and simulations from 40 river basins in the Midwest to further test these hypotheses.

Spectral Generation from the Ames Mars GCM for the Study of Martian Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klassen, David R.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Wolff, Michael J.; Haberle, Robert; Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2017-10-01

Studies of martian clouds come from two distinct groups of researchers: those modeling the martian system from first principles and those observing Mars from ground-based and orbital platforms. The model-view begins with global circulation models (GCMs) or mesoscale models to track a multitude of state variables over a prescribed set of spatial and temporal resolutions. The state variables can then be processed into distinct maps of derived product variables, such as integrated optical depth of aerosol (e.g., water ice cloud, dust) or column integrated water vapor for comparison to observational results. The observer view begins, typically, with spectral images or imaging spectra, calibrated to some form of absolute units then run through some form of radiative transfer model to also produce distinct maps of derived product variables. Both groups of researchers work to adjust model parameters and assumptions until some level of agreement in derived product variables is achieved. While this system appears to work well, it is in some sense only an implicit confirmation of the model assumptions that attribute to the work from both sides. We have begun a project of testing the NASA Ames Mars GCM and key aerosol model assumptions more directly by taking the model output and creating synthetic TES-spectra from them for comparison to actual raw-reduced TES spectra. We will present some preliminary generated GCM spectra and TES comparisons.

Development of Millimeter-Wave Velocimetry and Acoustic Time-of-Flight Tomography for Measurements in Densely Loaded Gas-Solid Riser Flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fort, James A.; Pfund, David M.; Sheen, David M.

2007-04-01

The MFDRC was formed in 1998 to advance the state-of-the-art in simulating multiphase turbulent flows by developing advanced computational models for gas-solid flows that are experimentally validated over a wide range of industrially relevant conditions. The goal was to transfer the resulting validated models to interested US commercial CFD software vendors, who would then propagate the models as part of new code versions to their customers in the US chemical industry. Since the lack of detailed data sets at industrially relevant conditions is the major roadblock to developing and validating multiphase turbulence models, a significant component of the work involvedmore » flow measurements on an industrial-scale riser contributed by Westinghouse, which was subsequently installed at SNL. Model comparisons were performed against these datasets by LANL. A parallel Office of Industrial Technology (OIT) project within the consortium made similar comparisons between riser measurements and models at NETL. Measured flow quantities of interest included volume fraction, velocity, and velocity-fluctuation profiles for both gas and solid phases at various locations in the riser. Some additional techniques were required for these measurements beyond what was currently available. PNNL’s role on the project was to work with the SNL experimental team to develop and test two new measurement techniques, acoustic tomography and millimeter-wave velocimetry. Acoustic tomography is a promising technique for gas-solid flow measurements in risers and PNNL has substantial related experience in this area. PNNL is also active in developing millimeter wave imaging techniques, and this technology presents an additional approach to make desired measurements. PNNL supported the advanced diagnostics development part of this project by evaluating these techniques and then by adapting and developing the selected technology to bulk gas-solids flows and by implementing them for testing in the SNL riser testbed.« less

Polymorphous Computing Architecture (PCA) Kernel Benchmark Measurements on the MIT Raw Microprocessor

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-14

Robert Graybill . A Raw hoard for the use of this project was provided by the Computer Architecture Croup at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology...simulator is presented by MIT as being an accurate model of the Raw chip, we have found that it does not accurately model the board. Our comparison...G4 processor, model 7410. with a 32 kbyte level-1 cache on-chip and a 2 Mbyte L2 cache connected through a 250 MH/ bus [12]. Each node has 256 Mbyte

South Asia river-flow projections and their implications for water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathison, C.; Wiltshire, A. J.; Falloon, P.; Challinor, A. J.

2015-12-01

South Asia is a region with a large and rising population, a high dependence on water intense industries, such as agriculture and a highly variable climate. In recent years, fears over the changing Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and rapidly retreating glaciers together with increasing demands for water resources have caused concern over the reliability of water resources and the potential impact on intensely irrigated crops in this region. Despite these concerns, there is a lack of climate simulations with a high enough resolution to capture the complex orography, and water resource analysis is limited by a lack of observations of the water cycle for the region. In this paper we present the first 25 km resolution regional climate projections of river flow for the South Asia region. Two global climate models (GCMs), which represent the ASM reasonably well are downscaled (1960-2100) using a regional climate model (RCM). In the absence of robust observations, ERA-Interim reanalysis is also downscaled providing a constrained estimate of the water balance for the region for comparison against the GCMs (1990-2006). The RCM river flow is routed using a river-routing model to allow analysis of present-day and future river flows through comparison with available river gauge observations. We examine how useful these simulations are for understanding potential changes in water resources for the South Asia region. In general the downscaled GCMs capture the seasonality of the river flows but overestimate the maximum river flows compared to the observations probably due to a positive rainfall bias and a lack of abstraction in the model. The simulations suggest an increasing trend in annual mean river flows for some of the river gauges in this analysis, in some cases almost doubling by the end of the century. The future maximum river-flow rates still occur during the ASM period, with a magnitude in some cases, greater than the present-day natural variability. Increases in river flow could mean additional water resources for irrigation, the largest usage of water in this region, but has implications in terms of inundation risk. These projected increases could be more than countered by changes in demand due to depleted groundwater, increases in domestic use or expansion of water intense industries. Including missing hydrological processes in the model would make these projections more robust but could also change the sign of the projections.

An Improved Computing Method for 3D Mechanical Connectivity Rates Based on a Polyhedral Simulation Model of Discrete Fracture Network in Rock Masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mingchao; Han, Shuai; Zhou, Sibao; Zhang, Ye

2018-06-01

Based on a 3D model of a discrete fracture network (DFN) in a rock mass, an improved projective method for computing the 3D mechanical connectivity rate was proposed. The Monte Carlo simulation method, 2D Poisson process and 3D geological modeling technique were integrated into a polyhedral DFN modeling approach, and the simulation results were verified by numerical tests and graphical inspection. Next, the traditional projective approach for calculating the rock mass connectivity rate was improved using the 3D DFN models by (1) using the polyhedral model to replace the Baecher disk model; (2) taking the real cross section of the rock mass, rather than a part of the cross section, as the test plane; and (3) dynamically searching the joint connectivity rates using different dip directions and dip angles at different elevations to calculate the maximum, minimum and average values of the joint connectivity at each elevation. In a case study, the improved method and traditional method were used to compute the mechanical connectivity rate of the slope of a dam abutment. The results of the two methods were further used to compute the cohesive force of the rock masses. Finally, a comparison showed that the cohesive force derived from the traditional method had a higher error, whereas the cohesive force derived from the improved method was consistent with the suggested values. According to the comparison, the effectivity and validity of the improved method were verified indirectly.

Comparison of measurement- and proxy-based Vs30 values in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yong, Alan K.

2016-01-01

This study was prompted by the recent availability of a significant amount of openly accessible measured VS30 values and the desire to investigate the trend of using proxy-based models to predict VS30 in the absence of measurements. Comparisons between measured and model-based values were performed. The measured data included 503 VS30 values collected from various projects for 482 seismographic station sites in California. Six proxy-based models—employing geologic mapping, topographic slope, and terrain classification—were also considered. Included was a new terrain class model based on the Yong et al. (2012) approach but recalibrated with updated measured VS30 values. Using the measured VS30 data as the metric for performance, the predictive capabilities of the six models were determined to be statistically indistinguishable. This study also found three models that tend to underpredict VS30 at lower velocities (NEHRP Site Classes D–E) and overpredict at higher velocities (Site Classes B–C).

Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Lin, Zhaohui; Wahid, Abdul; Sultana, Syeda Refat; Gibbs, Jim; Fahad, Shah

2017-09-01

Unpredictable precipitation trends have largely influenced by climate change which prolonged droughts or floods in South Asia. Statistical analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend carried out for different temporal (1996-2015 and 2041-2060) and spatial scale (39 meteorological stations) in Pakistan. Statistical downscaling model (SimCLIM) was used for future precipitation projection (2041-2060) and analyzed by statistical approach. Ensemble approach combined with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at medium level used for future projections. The magnitude and slop of trends were derived by applying Mann-Kendal and Sen's slop statistical approaches. Geo-statistical application used to generate precipitation trend maps. Comparison of base and projected precipitation by statistical analysis represented by maps and graphical visualization which facilitate to detect trends. Results of this study projects that precipitation trend was increasing more than 70% of weather stations for February, March, April, August, and September represented as base years. Precipitation trend was decreased in February to April but increase in July to October in projected years. Highest decreasing trend was reported in January for base years which was also decreased in projected years. Greater variation in precipitation trends for projected and base years was reported in February to April. Variations in projected precipitation trend for Punjab and Baluchistan highly accredited in March and April. Seasonal analysis shows large variation in winter, which shows increasing trend for more than 30% of weather stations and this increased trend approaches 40% for projected precipitation. High risk was reported in base year pre-monsoon season where 90% of weather station shows increasing trend but in projected years this trend decreased up to 33%. Finally, the annual precipitation trend has increased for more than 90% of meteorological stations in base (1996-2015) which has decreased for projected year (2041-2060) up to 76%. These result revealed that overall precipitation trend is decreasing in future year which may prolonged the drought in 14% of weather stations under study.

FAST Model Calibration and Validation of the OC5- DeepCwind Floating Offshore Wind System Against Wave Tank Test Data: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wendt, Fabian F; Robertson, Amy N; Jonkman, Jason

During the course of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project, which focused on the validation of numerical methods through comparison against tank test data, the authors created a numerical FAST model of the 1:50-scale DeepCwind semisubmersible system that was tested at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands ocean basin in 2013. This paper discusses several model calibration studies that were conducted to identify model adjustments that improve the agreement between the numerical simulations and the experimental test data. These calibration studies cover wind-field-specific parameters (coherence, turbulence), hydrodynamic and aerodynamic modeling approaches, as well as rotor model (blade-pitchmore » and blade-mass imbalances) and tower model (structural tower damping coefficient) adjustments. These calibration studies were conducted based on relatively simple calibration load cases (wave only/wind only). The agreement between the final FAST model and experimental measurements is then assessed based on more-complex combined wind and wave validation cases.« less

A framework for process-based assessment of regional climate model experiments: applied to projections of southern African precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Jones, Richard

2015-04-01

There is a demand from adaptation planners for regional climate change projections, particularly the finer resolution data delivered by regional models. However, climate models are subject to important uncertainties, and their projections diverge substantially, particularly for precipitation. So how should decision makers know which futures to consider and which to disregard? Model evaluation is clearly a priority. The majority of studies seeking to assess the validity of projections are based on comparison of the models' twentieth century climatologies with observations or reanalysis. Whilst this work is very important, examination of the modelled mean state it is not sufficient to assess the credibility of modelled changes. Direct investigation of the mechanisms for change is also vital. In this study, a framework for process-based analysis of projections is presented, whereby circulation changes accompanying future responses are examined, and then compared to atmospheric dynamics during historical years in models and reanalyses. This framework has previously been applied to investigate a drying signal in West Africa, and will here be used to examine projected precipitation change in southern Africa. An ensemble of five global and regional model experiments will be employed, consisting of five perturbed versions of HadCM3 and five corresponding runs of HadRM3P (PRECIS), run over the CORDEX Africa domain. The global and regional model runs show contrasting future responses: there is a strong drying in the global models over southern Africa during the rainy season, but the regional models show drying over Madagascar and the south west Indian Ocean. Circulation changes associated with these projections will be presented as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms for change and the reasons for difference between the global and regional models. The interannual variability will also be examined and compared to reanalysis to explore how well the models represent the dipole between southern Africa and Madagascar in the twentieth century simulations. This analysis could shed light on the credibility of the projected changes, and the relative trustworthiness of the global and regional models. This research makes a valuable contribution to the understanding of mechanisms for change in southern Africa. It also has wider relevance for regional climate model studies, in highlighting the need to evaluate models on a case by case basis, and providing a framework for assessment which could be applied to other models and other regions.

Climate Change-Induced Shifts in the Hydrological Regime of the Upper Amazon Basin and Its Impacts on Local Eco-Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkafli, Z. D.; Buytaert, W.; Veliz, C.

2014-12-01

The potential impact of a changing climate on Andean-Amazonian hydrology is an important question for scientists and policymakers alike, because of its implications for local ecosystem services such as water resources availability, river flow regulation, and eco-hydrology. This study presents new projections of climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river in Peru, and the consequent effect on two vulnerable species of freshwater turtle populations Podocnemis expansa (Amazon turtle) and Podocnemis unilis (yellow-spotted side neck turtle), which nest on its banks. To do this, the global climate model outputs of radiation, temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity data from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are propagated through a hydrological model to simulate changes in river flow. The model consists of a land surface scheme called the Joint-UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) that is coupled to a distributed river flow routing routine, which also accounts for floodplain attenuation of flood peaks. It is parameterized using a combination of remote sensing (TRMM, MODIS, an Landsat) and ground observational data to reproduce reliably the historical floodplain regime. The climate-induced shifts are inferred from a comparison between the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections against the historical scenario. Changes in the 10th and 95th percentile of flows, as well as the distributions in the length of the dry and wet seasons are analysed. These parameters are then used to construct probability models of biologically significant events (BSEs - extreme dry year, extreme wet year and repiquete), which are negative drivers of the turtle-egg ovipositioning, nesting and hatching. The results indicate that the projected increase in wet-season precipitation overcome the increase in evapotranspirative demand from an increase in temperature, resulting in more frequent and longer term flooding that causes a net loss of total turtle-egg counts. Additionally, changes in air and water temperature may alter the male / female ratio of the turtles.

Calibrated Blade-Element/Momentum Theory Aerodynamic Model of the MARIN Stock Wind Turbine: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goupee, A.; Kimball, R.; de Ridder, E. J.

2015-04-02

In this paper, a calibrated blade-element/momentum theory aerodynamic model of the MARIN stock wind turbine is developed and documented. The model is created using open-source software and calibrated to closely emulate experimental data obtained by the DeepCwind Consortium using a genetic algorithm optimization routine. The provided model will be useful for those interested in validating interested in validating floating wind turbine numerical simulators that rely on experiments utilizing the MARIN stock wind turbine—for example, the International Energy Agency Wind Task 30’s Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continued, with Correlation project.

Evolution and Activity in the Solar Corona: A Comparison of Coronal and Chromospheric Structures Seen in Soft X-Rays, White Light and H-Alpha Emission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bagenal, Fran

2001-01-01

The work completed under this project, 'Evolution and Activity in the Solar Corona: A Comparison of Coronal and Chromospheric Structures Seen in Soft X-Rays, White Light and H-Alpha Emission', includes the following presentations: (1) Analysis of H-alpha Observations of High-altitude Coronal Condensations; (2) Multi-spectral Imaging of Coronal Activity; (3) Measurement and Modeling of Soft X-ray Loop Arcades; (4) A Study of the Origin and Dynamics of CMEs; and various poster presentations and thesis dissertations.

Multiresolution comparison of precipitation datasets for large-scale models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chun, K. P.; Sapriza Azuri, G.; Davison, B.; DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.

2014-12-01

Gridded precipitation datasets are crucial for driving large-scale models which are related to weather forecast and climate research. However, the quality of precipitation products is usually validated individually. Comparisons between gridded precipitation products along with ground observations provide another avenue for investigating how the precipitation uncertainty would affect the performance of large-scale models. In this study, using data from a set of precipitation gauges over British Columbia and Alberta, we evaluate several widely used North America gridded products including the Canadian Gridded Precipitation Anomalies (CANGRD), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, the Water and Global Change (WATCH) project, the thin plate spline smoothing algorithms (ANUSPLIN) and Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA). Based on verification criteria for various temporal and spatial scales, results provide an assessment of possible applications for various precipitation datasets. For long-term climate variation studies (~100 years), CANGRD, NCEP, WATCH and ANUSPLIN have different comparative advantages in terms of their resolution and accuracy. For synoptic and mesoscale precipitation patterns, CaPA provides appealing performance of spatial coherence. In addition to the products comparison, various downscaling methods are also surveyed to explore new verification and bias-reduction methods for improving gridded precipitation outputs for large-scale models.

3D craniofacial registration using thin-plate spline transform and cylindrical surface projection

PubMed Central

Chen, Yucong; Deng, Qingqiong; Duan, Fuqing

2017-01-01

Craniofacial registration is used to establish the point-to-point correspondence in a unified coordinate system among human craniofacial models. It is the foundation of craniofacial reconstruction and other craniofacial statistical analysis research. In this paper, a non-rigid 3D craniofacial registration method using thin-plate spline transform and cylindrical surface projection is proposed. First, the gradient descent optimization is utilized to improve a cylindrical surface fitting (CSF) for the reference craniofacial model. Second, the thin-plate spline transform (TPST) is applied to deform a target craniofacial model to the reference model. Finally, the cylindrical surface projection (CSP) is used to derive the point correspondence between the reference and deformed target models. To accelerate the procedure, the iterative closest point ICP algorithm is used to obtain a rough correspondence, which can provide a possible intersection area of the CSP. Finally, the inverse TPST is used to map the obtained corresponding points from the deformed target craniofacial model to the original model, and it can be realized directly by the correspondence between the original target model and the deformed target model. Three types of registration, namely, reflexive, involutive and transitive registration, are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed craniofacial registration algorithm. Comparison with the methods in the literature shows that the proposed method is more accurate. PMID:28982117

3D craniofacial registration using thin-plate spline transform and cylindrical surface projection.

PubMed

Chen, Yucong; Zhao, Junli; Deng, Qingqiong; Duan, Fuqing

2017-01-01

Craniofacial registration is used to establish the point-to-point correspondence in a unified coordinate system among human craniofacial models. It is the foundation of craniofacial reconstruction and other craniofacial statistical analysis research. In this paper, a non-rigid 3D craniofacial registration method using thin-plate spline transform and cylindrical surface projection is proposed. First, the gradient descent optimization is utilized to improve a cylindrical surface fitting (CSF) for the reference craniofacial model. Second, the thin-plate spline transform (TPST) is applied to deform a target craniofacial model to the reference model. Finally, the cylindrical surface projection (CSP) is used to derive the point correspondence between the reference and deformed target models. To accelerate the procedure, the iterative closest point ICP algorithm is used to obtain a rough correspondence, which can provide a possible intersection area of the CSP. Finally, the inverse TPST is used to map the obtained corresponding points from the deformed target craniofacial model to the original model, and it can be realized directly by the correspondence between the original target model and the deformed target model. Three types of registration, namely, reflexive, involutive and transitive registration, are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed craniofacial registration algorithm. Comparison with the methods in the literature shows that the proposed method is more accurate.

Preliminary measurement of the noise from the 2/9 scale model of the Large-scale Advanced Propfan (LAP) propeller, SR-7A

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dittmar, J. H.

1985-01-01

Noise data on the Large-scale Advanced Propfan (LAP) propeller model SR-7A were taken into the NASA Lewis 8- by 6-Foot Wind Tunnel. The maximum blade passing tone decreases from the peak level when going to higher helical tip Mach numbers. This noise reduction points to the use of higher propeller speeds as a possible method to reduce airplane cabin noise while maintaining high flight speed and efficiency. Comparison of the SR-7A blade passing noise with the noise of the similarly designed SR-3 propeller shows good agreement as expected. The SR-7A propeller is slightly noisier than the SR-3 model in the plane of rotation at the cruise condition. Projections of the tunnel model data are made to the full-scale LAP propeller mounted on the test bed aircraft and compared with design predictions. The prediction method is conservative in the sense that it overpredicts the projected model data.

Applying the World Water and Agriculture Model to Filling Scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Villa, Daniel L.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Passell, Howard D.

The World Water and Agriculture Model has been used to simulate water, hydropower, and food sector effects in Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia during the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This unique capability allows tradeoffs to be made between filling policies for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This Nile River Basin study is presented to illustrate the capacity to use the World Water and Agriculture Model to simulate regional food security issues while keeping a global perspective. The study uses runoff data from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 and informationmore » from the literature in order to establish a reasonable set of hydrological initial conditions. Gross Domestic Product and population growth are modelled exogenously based on a composite projection of United Nations and World Bank data. The effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under various percentages of water withheld are presented.« less

Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew T.

2014-01-01

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

Surprisingly robust projections of soil temperature and moisture for North American drylands in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradford, J. B.; Schlaepfer, D.; Palmquist, K. A.; Lauenroth, W.

2017-12-01

Climate projections for western North America suggest temperature increases that are relatively consistent across climate models. However, precipitation projections are less consistent, especially in the Southwest, promoting uncertainty about the future of soil moisture and drought. We utilized a daily time-step ecosystem water balance model to characterize soil temperature and moisture patterns at a 10-km resolution across western North America for historical (1980-2010), mid-century (2020-2050), and late century (2070-2100). We simulated soil moisture and temperature under two representative concentration pathways and eleven climate models (selected strategically to represent the range of variability in projections among the full set of models in the CMIP5 database and perform well in hind-cast comparisons for the region), and we use the results to identify areas with robust projections, e.g. areas where the large majority of models agree in the direction of change in long-term average soil moisture or temperature. Rising air temperatures will increase average soil temperatures across western North America and expand the area of mesic and thermic soil temperature regimes while decreasing the area of cryic and frigid regimes. Future soil moisture conditions are relatively consistent across climate models for much of the region, including many areas with variable precipitation trajectories. Consistent projections for drier soils are expected in most of Arizona and New Mexico, similar to previous studies. Other regions with projections for declining soil moisture include the central and southern U.S. Great Plains and large parts of southern British Columbia. By contrast, areas with robust projections for increasing soil moisture include northeastern Montana, southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and many areas in the intermountain west dominated by big sagebrush. In addition, seasonal moisture patterns in much of the western US drylands are expected to shift toward cool-season water availability, with potentially important consequences for ecosystem structure and function. These results provide a framework for coping with variability in climate projections and assessing climate change impacts on dryland ecosystems.

The centrality of meta-programming in the ES-DOC eco-system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenslade, Mark

2017-04-01

The Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) project is an international effort aiming to deliver a robust earth system model inter-comparison project documentation infrastructure. Such infrastructure both simplifies & standardizes the process of documenting (in detail) projects, experiments, models, forcings & simulations. In support of CMIP6, ES-DOC has upgraded its eco-system of tools, web-services & web-sites. The upgrade consolidates the existing infrastructure (built for CMIP5) and extends it with the introduction of new capabilities. The strategic focus of the upgrade is improvements in the documentation experience and broadening the range of scientific use-cases that the archived documentation may help deliver. Whether it is highlighting dataset errors, exploring experimental protocols, comparing forcings across ensemble runs, understanding MIP objectives, reviewing citations, exploring component properties of configured models, visualising inter-model relationships, scientists involved in CMIP6 will find the ES-DOC infrastructure helpful. This presentation underlines the centrality of meta-programming within the ES-DOC eco-system. We will demonstrate how agility is greatly enhanced by taking a meta-programming approach to representing data models and controlled vocabularies. Such an approach nicely decouples representations from encodings. Meta-models will be presented along with the associated tooling chain that forward engineers artefacts as diverse as: class hierarchies, IPython notebooks, mindmaps, configuration files, OWL & SKOS documents, spreadsheets …etc.

Water cycle changes over the Mediterranean: a comparison study of a super-high-resolution global model with CMIP3.

PubMed

Jin, Fengjun; Kitoh, Akio; Alpert, Pinhas

2010-11-28

Water cycle components over the Mediterranean for both a current run (1979-2007) and a future run (2075-2099) are studied with the Japan Meteorological Agency's 20 km grid global climate model. Results are compared with another study using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 ensemble model (hereafter, the Mariotti model). Our results are surprisingly close to Mariotti's. The projected mean annual change rates of precipitation (P) between the future and the current run for sea and land are -11 per cent and -10 per cent, respectively, which are not as high as Mariotti's. Projected changes for evaporation (E) are +9.3 per cent and -3.6 per cent, compared with +7.2 per cent and -8.1 per cent in Mariotti's study, respectively. However, no significant difference in the change in P-E over the sea body was found between these two studies. The increased E over the eastern Mediterranean was found to be higher than that in the western Mediterranean, but the P decrease was lower. The net moisture budget, P-E, shows that the eastern Mediterranean will become even drier than the western Mediterranean. The river model suggests decreasing water inflow to the Mediterranean of approximately 36 per cent (excluding the Nile).

Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Suchul; Im, Eun-Soon; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2018-03-01

In this study, future changes in rainfall due to global climate change are investigated over the western Maritime Continent based on dynamically downscaled climate projections using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) with 12 km horizontal resolution. A total of nine 30-year regional climate projections driven by multi-GCMs projections (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR and ACCESS1.0) under multi-scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions (Historical: 1976-2005, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2071-2100) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. Focusing on dynamically downscaled rainfall fields, the associated systematic biases originating from GCM and MRCM are removed based on observations using Parametric Quantile Mapping method in order to enhance the reliability of future projections. The MRCM simulations with bias correction capture the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall as well as the frequency distribution of daily rainfall. Based on projected rainfall changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the ensemble of MRCM simulations project a significant decrease in rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the inter-monsoon periods while the change in rainfall is not relevant during wet season. The main mechanism behind the simulated decrease in rainfall is rooted in asymmetries of the projected changes in seasonal dynamics of the meridional circulation along different latitudes. The sinking motion, which is marginally positioned in the reference simulation, is enhanced and expanded under global climate change, particularly in RCP8.5 scenario during boreal fall season. The projected enhancement of rainfall seasonality over the western Maritime Continent suggests increased risk of water stress for natural ecosystems as well as man-made water resources reservoirs.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2007-01-01

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

Downscaled rainfall projections in south Florida using self-organizing maps.

PubMed

Sinha, Palash; Mann, Michael E; Fuentes, Jose D; Mejia, Alfonso; Ning, Liang; Sun, Weiyi; He, Tao; Obeysekera, Jayantha

2018-04-20

We make future projections of seasonal precipitation characteristics in southern Florida using a statistical downscaling approach based on Self Organized Maps. Our approach is applied separately to each three-month season: September-November; December-February; March-May; and June-August. We make use of 19 different simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) and generate an ensemble of 1500 independent daily precipitation surrogates for each model simulation, yielding a grand ensemble of 28,500 total realizations for each season. The center and moments (25%ile and 75%ile) of this distribution are used to characterize most likely scenarios and their associated uncertainties. This approach is applied to 30-year windows of daily mean precipitation for both the CMIP5 historical simulations (1976-2005) and the CMIP5 future (RCP 4.5) projections. For the latter case, we examine both the "near future" (2021-2050) and "far future" (2071-2100) periods for three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Effectiveness and Limitations of Habitat Suitability Models for Wetland Restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Draugelis-Dale, Rassa O.

2008-01-01

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models developed for wildlife in the Louisiana Coastal Area Comprehensive Ecosystem Restoration Plan (LCA study) have been assessed for parameter and overall model quality. The success of the suitability models from the South Florida Water Management District for The Everglades restoration project and from the Spatially Explicit Species Index Models (SESI) of the Across Trophic Level System Simulation (ATLSS) Program of Florida warranted investigation with possible application of modeling theory to the current LCA study. General HSI models developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service were also investigated. This report presents examinations of theoretical formulae and comparisons of the models, performed by using diverse hypothetical settings of hydrological/biological ecosystems to highlight weaknesses as well as strengths among the models, limited to the American alligator and selected wading bird species (great blue heron, great egret, and white ibis). Recommendations were made for the LCA study based on these assessments. An enhanced HSI model for the LCA study is proposed for the American alligator, and a new HSI model for wading birds is introduced for the LCA study. Performance comparisons of the proposed models with the other suitability models are made by using the aforementioned hypothetical settings.

Present-value analysis: A systems approach to public decisionmaking for cost effectiveness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herbert, T. T.

1971-01-01

Decision makers within Governmental agencies and Congress must evaluate competing (and sometimes conflicting) proposals which seek funding and implementation. Present value analysis can be an effective decision making tool by enabling the formal evaluation of the effects of competing proposals on efficient national resource utilization. A project's costs are not only its direct disbursements, but its social costs as well. How much does it cost to have those funds diverted from their use and economic benefit by the private sector to the public project? Comparisons of competing projects' social costs allow decision makers to expand their decision bases by quantifying the projects' impacts upon the economy and the efficient utilization of the country's limited national resources. A conceptual model is established for the choosing of the appropriate discount rate to be used in evaluation decisions through the technique.

A theoretical NMR study of selected benzazoles: Comparison of GIPAW and GIAO-PCM (DMSO) calculations.

PubMed

Marín-Luna, Marta; Alkorta, Ibon; Elguero, José

2018-03-01

This paper compares the absolute shieldings obtained by gauge-including-projected-augmented-wave (GIPAW) to those obtained by gauge-invariant atomic orbital/Becke, 3-parameter, Lee-Yang-Parr (GIAO/B3LYP)/6-311++G(d,p)-polarizable continuum model (PCM, dimethyl sulfoxide) for nine benzazoles (benzimidazoles, indazoles, and benzotriazoles) recorded in the solid-state. Three nuclei were explored, 13 C, 15 N, and 19 F, and the gauge-including-projected-augmented-wave approach only proved better for 15 N MAS NMR. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bedmap2; Mapping, visualizing and communicating the Antarctic sub-glacial environment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fretwell, Peter; Pritchard, Hamish

2013-04-01

Bedmap2; Mapping, visualizing and communicating the Antarctic sub-glacial environment. The Bedmap2 project has been a large cooperative effort to compile, model, map and visualize the ice-rock interface beneath the Antarctic ice sheet. Here we present the final output of that project; the Bedmap2 printed map. The map is an A1, double sided print, showing 2d and 3d visualizations of the dataset. It includes scientific interpretations, cross sections and comparisons with other areas. Paper copies of the colour double sided map will be freely distributed at this session.

Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

2014-11-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model calibration was tested by comparing the manual calibration approach with automatic calibrations of the VHM model based on different objective functions. The calibration approach did not significantly alter the model results for peak flow, but the low flow projections were again highly influenced. Model choice as well as calibration strategy hence have a critical impact on low flows, more than on peak flows. These results highlight the high uncertainty in low flow modelling, especially in a climate change context.

The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds

PubMed Central

Triviño, Maria; Thuiller, Wilfried; Cabeza, Mar; Hickler, Thomas; Araújo, Miguel B.

2011-01-01

Although climate is known to be one of the key factors determining animal species distributions amongst others, projections of global change impacts on their distributions often rely on bioclimatic envelope models. Vegetation structure and landscape configuration are also key determinants of distributions, but they are rarely considered in such assessments. We explore the consequences of using simulated vegetation structure and composition as well as its associated landscape configuration in models projecting global change effects on Iberian bird species distributions. Both present-day and future distributions were modelled for 168 bird species using two ensemble forecasting methods: Random Forests (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). For each species, several models were created, differing in the predictor variables used (climate, vegetation, and landscape configuration). Discrimination ability of each model in the present-day was then tested with four commonly used evaluation methods (AUC, TSS, specificity and sensitivity). The different sets of predictor variables yielded similar spatial patterns for well-modelled species, but the future projections diverged for poorly-modelled species. Models using all predictor variables were not significantly better than models fitted with climate variables alone for ca. 50% of the cases. Moreover, models fitted with climate data were always better than models fitted with landscape configuration variables, and vegetation variables were found to correlate with bird species distributions in 26–40% of the cases with BRT, and in 1–18% of the cases with RF. We conclude that improvements from including vegetation and its landscape configuration variables in comparison with climate only variables might not always be as great as expected for future projections of Iberian bird species. PMID:22216263

How well do the GCMs replicate the historical precipitation variability in the Colorado River Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guentchev, G.; Barsugli, J. J.; Eischeid, J.; Raff, D. A.; Brekke, L.

2009-12-01

Observed precipitation variability measures are compared to measures obtained using the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) General Circulation Models (GCM) data from 36 model projections downscaled by Brekke at al. (2007) and 30 model projections downscaled by Jon Eischeid. Three groups of variability measures are considered in this historical period (1951-1999) comparison: a) basic variability measures, such as standard deviation, interdecadal standard deviation; b) exceedance probability values, i.e., 10% (extreme wet years) and 90% (extreme dry years) exceedance probability values of series of n-year running mean annual amounts, where n=1,12; 10% exceedance probability values of annual maximum monthly precipitation (extreme wet months); and c) runs variability measures, e.g., frequency of negative and positive runs of annual precipitation amounts, total number of the negative and positive runs. Two gridded precipitation data sets produced from observations are used: the Maurer et al. (2002) and the Daly et al. (1994) Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) data sets. The data consist of monthly grid-point precipitation averaged on a United States Geological Survey (USGS) hydrological sub-region scale. The statistical significance of the obtained model minus observed measure differences is assessed using a block bootstrapping approach. The analyses were performed on annual, seasonal and monthly scale. The results indicate that the interdecadal standard deviation is underestimated, in general, on all time scales by the downscaled model data. The differences are statistically significant at a 0.05 significance level for several Lower Colorado Basin sub-regions on annual and seasonal scale, and for several sub-regions located mostly in the Upper Colorado River Basin for the months of March, June, July and November. Although the models simulate drier extreme wet years, wetter extreme dry years and drier extreme wet months for the Upper Colorado basin, the differences are mostly not-significant. Exceptions are the results about the extreme wet years for n=3 for sub-region White-Yampa, for n=6, 7, and 8 for sub-region Upper Colorado-Dolores, and about the extreme dry years for n=11 for sub-region Great Divide-Upper Green. None of the results for the sub-regions in the Lower Colorado Basin were significant. For most of the Upper Colorado sub-regions the models simulate significantly lower frequency of negative and positive 4-6 year runs, while for several sub-regions a significantly higher frequency of 2-year negative runs is evident in the model versus the Maurer data comparisons. The model projections versus the PRISM data comparison reveals similar results for the negative runs, while for the positive runs the results indicate that the models simulate higher frequency of the 2-6 year runs. The results for the Lower Colorado basin sub-regions are similar, in general, to these for the Upper Colorado sub-regions. The differences between the simulated and the observed total number of negative or positive runs were not significant for almost all of the sub-regions within the Colorado River Basin.

Bench-Scale Testing and Process Performance Projections of CO2 Capture by CO2–Binding Organic Liquids (CO2BOLs) With and Without Polarity-Swing-Assisted Regeneration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Feng; Heldebrant, David J.; Mathias, Paul M.

This manuscript provides a detailed analysis of a continuous flow, bench scale study of the CO2BOL solvent platform with and without its Polarity Swing Assisted Regeneration (PSAR). This study encompassed four months of continuous flow testing of a candidate CO2BOL with a thermal regeneration and PSAR regeneration using decane antisolvent. In both regeneration schemes, steady state capture of >90 %CO2 was achieved using simulated flue gas at acceptable L/G ratios. Aspen Plus™ modeling was performed to assess process performance compared to previous equilibrium performance projections. This paper also includes net power projections, and comparisons to DOE’s Case 10 amine baseline.

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-11-01

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparison between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between -12% and +15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.

Development of visual programming techniques to integrate theoretical modeling into the scientific planning and instrument operations environment of ISTP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodrich, Charles C.

1993-01-01

The goal of this project is to investigate the use of visualization software based on the visual programming and data-flow paradigms to meet the needs of the SPOF and through it the International Solar Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) science community. Specific needs we address include science planning, data interpretation, comparisons of data with simulation and model results, and data acquisition. Our accomplishments during the twelve month grant period are discussed below.

Shape: A 3D Modeling Tool for Astrophysics.

PubMed

Steffen, Wolfgang; Koning, Nicholas; Wenger, Stephan; Morisset, Christophe; Magnor, Marcus

2011-04-01

We present a flexible interactive 3D morpho-kinematical modeling application for astrophysics. Compared to other systems, our application reduces the restrictions on the physical assumptions, data type, and amount that is required for a reconstruction of an object's morphology. It is one of the first publicly available tools to apply interactive graphics to astrophysical modeling. The tool allows astrophysicists to provide a priori knowledge about the object by interactively defining 3D structural elements. By direct comparison of model prediction with observational data, model parameters can then be automatically optimized to fit the observation. The tool has already been successfully used in a number of astrophysical research projects.

Early Design Energy Analysis Using Building Information Modeling Technology

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

building, (a) floor plan and (b) 3D image. ....................................... 50 Figure 28. Comparison of different energy estimates...when they make the biggest impact on building life-cycle costs. Traditionally, most building energy analyses have been conducted late in design, by...complete energy analysis. This method enables project teams to make energy conscious decisions early in design when they impact building life-cycle

A Comparison of Combustor-Noise Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hultgren, Lennart, S.

2012-01-01

The current status of combustor-noise prediction in the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP) for current-generation (N) turbofan engines is summarized. Best methods for near-term updates are reviewed. Long-term needs and challenges for the N+1 through N+3 timeframe are discussed. This work was carried out under the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program, Subsonic Fixed Wing Project, Quiet Aircraft Subproject.

A project based on multi-configuration Dirac-Fock calculations for plasma spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comet, M.; Pain, J.-C.; Gilleron, F.; Piron, R.

2017-09-01

We present a project dedicated to hot plasma spectroscopy based on a Multi-Configuration Dirac-Fock (MCDF) code, initially developed by J. Bruneau. The code is briefly described and the use of the transition state method for plasma spectroscopy is detailed. Then an opacity code for local-thermodynamic-equilibrium plasmas using MCDF data, named OPAMCDF, is presented. Transition arrays for which the number of lines is too large to be handled in a Detailed Line Accounting (DLA) calculation can be modeled within the Partially Resolved Transition Array method or using the Unresolved Transition Arrays formalism in jj-coupling. An improvement of the original Partially Resolved Transition Array method is presented which gives a better agreement with DLA computations. Comparisons with some absorption and emission experimental spectra are shown. Finally, the capability of the MCDF code to compute atomic data required for collisional-radiative modeling of plasma at non local thermodynamic equilibrium is illustrated. In addition to photoexcitation, this code can be used to calculate photoionization, electron impact excitation and ionization cross-sections as well as autoionization rates in the Distorted-Wave or Close Coupling approximations. Comparisons with cross-sections and rates available in the literature are discussed.

Development of an EMC3-EIRENE Synthetic Imaging Diagnostic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, William; Allen, Steve; Samuell, Cameron; Lore, Jeremy

2017-10-01

2D and 3D flow measurements are critical for validating numerical codes such as EMC3-EIRENE. Toroidal symmetry assumptions preclude tomographic reconstruction of 3D flows from single camera views. In addition, the resolution of the grids utilized in numerical code models can easily surpass the resolution of physical camera diagnostic geometries. For these reasons we have developed a Synthetic Imaging Diagnostic capability for forward projection comparisons of EMC3-EIRENE model solutions with the line integrated images from the Doppler Coherence Imaging diagnostic on DIII-D. The forward projection matrix is 2.8 Mpixel by 6.4 Mcells for the non-axisymmetric case we present. For flow comparisons, both simple line integral, and field aligned component matrices must be calculated. The calculation of these matrices is a massive embarrassingly parallel problem and performed with a custom dispatcher that allows processing platforms to join mid-problem as they become available, or drop out if resources are needed for higher priority tasks. The matrices are handled using standard sparse matrix techniques. Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. DOE, Office of Science, Office of Fusion Energy Sciences. LLNL-ABS-734800.

Estimates of oceanic surface wind speed and direction using orthogonal beam scatterometer measurements and comparison of recent sea scattering theories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, R. K.; Fung, A. K.; Dome, G. J.; Birrer, I. J.

1978-01-01

The wind direction properties of radar backscatter from the sea were empirically modelled using a cosine Fourier series through the 4th harmonic in wind direction (referenced to upwind). A comparison with 1975 JONSWAP (Joint North Sea Wave Project) scatterometer data, at incidence angles of 40 and 65, indicates that effects to third and fourth harmonics are negligible. Another important result is that the Fourier coefficients through the second harmonic are related to wind speed by a power law expression. A technique is also proposed to estimate the wind speed and direction over the ocean from two orthogonal scattering measurements. A comparison between two different types of sea scatter theories, one type presented by the work of Wright and the other by that of Chan and Fung, was made with recent scatterometer measurements. It demonstrates that a complete scattering model must include some provisions for the anisotropic characteristics of the sea scatter, and use a sea spectrum which depends upon wind speed.

PBL and CDIO: complementary models for engineering education development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edström, Kristina; Kolmos, Anette

2014-09-01

This paper compares two models for reforming engineering education, problem/project-based learning (PBL), and conceive-design-implement-operate (CDIO), identifying and explaining similarities and differences. PBL and CDIO are defined and contrasted in terms of their history, community, definitions, curriculum design, relation to disciplines, engineering projects, and change strategy. The structured comparison is intended as an introduction for learning about any of these models. It also invites reflection to support the understanding and evolution of PBL and CDIO, and indicates specifically what the communities can learn from each other. It is noted that while the two approaches share many underlying values, they only partially overlap as strategies for educational reform. The conclusions are that practitioners have much to learn from each other's experiences through a dialogue between the communities, and that PBL and CDIO can play compatible and mutually reinforcing roles, and thus can be fruitfully combined to reform engineering education.

Comparison of Computational-Model and Experimental-Example Trained Neural Networks for Processing Speckled Fringe Patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, A. J.; Fite, E. B.; Thorp, S. A.; Mehmed, O.

1998-01-01

The responses of artificial neural networks to experimental and model-generated inputs are compared for detection of damage in twisted fan blades using electronic holography. The training-set inputs, for this work, are experimentally generated characteristic patterns of the vibrating blades. The outputs are damage-flag indicators or second derivatives of the sensitivity-vector-projected displacement vectors from a finite element model. Artificial neural networks have been trained in the past with computational-model-generated training sets. This approach avoids the difficult inverse calculations traditionally used to compare interference fringes with the models. But the high modeling standards are hard to achieve, even with fan-blade finite-element models.

Comparison of Computational, Model and Experimental, Example Trained Neural Networks for Processing Speckled Fringe Patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, A. J.; Fite, E. B.; Thorp, S. A.; Mehmed, O.

1998-01-01

The responses of artificial neural networks to experimental and model-generated inputs are compared for detection of damage in twisted fan blades using electronic holography. The training-set inputs, for this work, are experimentally generated characteristic patterns of the vibrating blades. The outputs are damage-flag indicators or second derivatives of the sensitivity-vector-projected displacement vectors from a finite element model. Artificial neural networks have been trained in the past with computational-model- generated training sets. This approach avoids the difficult inverse calculations traditionally used to compare interference fringes with the models. But the high modeling standards are hard to achieve, even with fan-blade finite-element models.

The Millennium Villages Project: a retrospective, observational, endline evaluation.

PubMed

Mitchell, Shira; Gelman, Andrew; Ross, Rebecca; Chen, Joyce; Bari, Sehrish; Huynh, Uyen Kim; Harris, Matthew W; Sachs, Sonia Ehrlich; Stuart, Elizabeth A; Feller, Avi; Makela, Susanna; Zaslavsky, Alan M; McClellan, Lucy; Ohemeng-Dapaah, Seth; Namakula, Patricia; Palm, Cheryl A; Sachs, Jeffrey D

2018-05-01

The Millennium Villages Project (MVP) was a 10 year, multisector, rural development project, initiated in 2005, operating across ten sites in ten sub-Saharan African countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In this study, we aimed to estimate the project's impact, target attainment, and on-site spending. In this endline evaluation of the MVP, we retrospectively selected comparison villages that best matched the project villages on possible confounding variables. Cross-sectional survey data on 40 outcomes of interest were collected from both the project and the comparison villages in 2015. Using these data, as well as on-site spending data collected during the project, we estimated project impacts as differences in outcomes between the project and comparison villages; target attainment as differences between project outcomes and prespecified targets; and on-site spending as expenditures reported by communities, donors, governments, and the project. Spending data were not collected in the comparison villages. Averaged across the ten project sites, we found that impact estimates for 30 of 40 outcomes were significant (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] for these outcomes excluded zero) and favoured the project villages. In particular, substantial effects were seen in agriculture and health, in which some outcomes were roughly one SD better in the project villages than in the comparison villages. The project was estimated to have no significant impact on the consumption-based measures of poverty, but a significant favourable impact on an index of asset ownership. Impacts on nutrition and education outcomes were often inconclusive (95% UIs included zero). Averaging across outcomes within categories, the project had significant favourable impacts on agriculture, nutrition, education, child health, maternal health, HIV and malaria, and water and sanitation. A third of the targets were met in the project sites. Total on-site spending decreased from US$132 per person in the first half of the project (of which $66 was from the MVP) to $109 per person in the second half of the project (of which $25 was from the MVP). The MVP had favourable impacts on outcomes in all MDG areas, consistent with an integrated rural development approach. The greatest effects were in agriculture and health, suggesting support for the project's emphasis on agriculture and health systems strengthening. The project conclusively met one third of its targets. The Open Society Foundations, the Islamic Development Bank, and the governments of Japan, South Korea, Mali, Senegal, and Uganda. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.;

An application of the MPP to the interactive manipulation of stereo images of digital terrain models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pol, Sanjay; Mcallister, David; Davis, Edward

1987-01-01

Massively Parallel Processor algorithms were developed for the interactive manipulation of flat shaded digital terrain models defined over grids. The emphasis is on real time manipulation of stereo images. Standard graphics transformations are applied to a 128 x 128 grid of elevations followed by shading and a perspective projection to produce the right eye image. The surface is then rendered using a simple painter's algorithm for hidden surface removal. The left eye image is produced by rotating the surface 6 degs about the viewer's y axis followed by a perspective projection and rendering of the image as described above. The left and right eye images are then presented on a graphics device using standard stereo technology. Performance evaluations and comparisons are presented.

Causes and implications of persistent atmospheric carbon dioxide biases in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Arora, V. K.; Bao, Q.; Cadule, P.; Ji, D.; Jones, C. D.; Kawamiya, M.; Khatiwala, S.; Lindsay, K.; Obata, A.; Shevliakova, E.; Six, K. D.; Tjiputra, J. F.; Volodin, E. M.; Wu, T.

2014-02-01

The strength of feedbacks between a changing climate and future CO2 concentrations is uncertain and difficult to predict using Earth System Models (ESMs). We analyzed emission-driven simulations—in which atmospheric CO2levels were computed prognostically—for historical (1850-2005) and future periods (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for 2006-2100) produced by 15 ESMs for the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparison of ESM prognostic atmospheric CO2 over the historical period with observations indicated that ESMs, on average, had a small positive bias in predictions of contemporary atmospheric CO2. Weak ocean carbon uptake in many ESMs contributed to this bias, based on comparisons with observations of ocean and atmospheric anthropogenic carbon inventories. We found a significant linear relationship between contemporary atmospheric CO2 biases and future CO2levels for the multimodel ensemble. We used this relationship to create a contemporary CO2 tuned model (CCTM) estimate of the atmospheric CO2 trajectory for the 21st century. The CCTM yielded CO2estimates of 600±14 ppm at 2060 and 947±35 ppm at 2100, which were 21 ppm and 32 ppm below the multimodel mean during these two time periods. Using this emergent constraint approach, the likely ranges of future atmospheric CO2, CO2-induced radiative forcing, and CO2-induced temperature increases for the RCP 8.5 scenario were considerably narrowed compared to estimates from the full ESM ensemble. Our analysis provided evidence that much of the model-to-model variation in projected CO2 during the 21st century was tied to biases that existed during the observational era and that model differences in the representation of concentration-carbon feedbacks and other slowly changing carbon cycle processes appear to be the primary driver of this variability. By improving models to more closely match the long-term time series of CO2from Mauna Loa, our analysis suggests that uncertainties in future climate projections can be reduced.

Evaluation of EGM2008 Earth Gravitational Model in Algeria using gravity and GPS/levelling data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benahmed Daho, S. A.

2009-04-01

The present work focuses on the evaluation of the EGM2008 geopotential model that was recently released by the NGA (National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, U.S)/EGM-development team, in Algeria using the free air gravity anomalies supplied by BGI and GETECH, some of the precise GPS data collected from the international TYRGEONET (TYRhenian GEOdynamical NETwork) and ALGEONET (ALGerian GEOdynamical NETwork) projects and the last Algerian local gravimetric geoid model. Additional comparisons of the terrestrial point data with the corresponding values obtained from other geopotential models were made. Five global geopotential models were used in this comparison: the Preliminary Earth Gravitational Model PGM2007A, the combined CHAMP and GRACE model EIGEN-CG01C, the combined GRACE and LAGEOS model EIGEN-GL04C, OSU91A and EGM96. The study shows that all tested models are an improvement over OSU91A geopotential model used in all previous Algerian geoid computations and that new released combined model (EGM2008) is relatively superior to other tested models in the Algerian region. According to our numerical results, the new EGM2008 model fits better the observed values used in this investigation. Its standard deviations fit with GPS/levelling data are 21.4cm and 18.7cm before and after fitting using four-parameters transformation model. We strongly recommend the use of this new model in the remove-restore technique for the computation of the improved geoid for Algeria. In addition to these more general investigations, special GPS campaign has been performed for altimetric auscultation of a storage tank in which we wanted to test the possibilities to replace levelling by GPS measurements. The evaluation revealed promising results but also that much attention has to be paid on the GPS evaluation method. Key words: Geopotential model, TYRGEONET and ALGEONET projects, GPS/levelling data.

Regional climate assessment of precipitation and temperature in Southern Punjab (Pakistan) using SimCLIM climate model for different temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Sarwar, Saleem; Urich, Peter; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Wajid, Aftab; Khaliq, Tasneem; Rasul, Fahd; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Rehmani, Muhammad Ishaq Asif; Mubarak, Hussani; Mirza, Nosheen; Wahid, Abdul; Ahamd, Shakeel; Fahad, Shah; Ullah, Abid; Khan, Mohammad Nauman; Ameen, Asif; Amanullah; Shahzad, Babar; Saud, Shah; Alharby, Hesham; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Adnan, Muhammad; Islam, Faisal; Ali, Qazi Shoaib

2018-01-01

Unbalanced climate during the last decades has created spatially alarming and destructive situations in the world. Anomalies in temperature and precipitation enhance the risks for crop production in large agricultural region (especially the Southern Punjab) of Pakistan. Detailed analysis of historic weather data (1980-2011) record helped in creating baseline data to compare with model projection (SimCLIM) for regional level. Ensemble of 40 GCMs used for climatic projections with greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP-4.5, 6.0, 8.5) was selected on the baseline comparison and used for 2025 and 2050 climate projection. Precipitation projected by ensemble and regional weather observatory at baseline showed highly unpredictable nature while both temperature extremes showed 95 % confidence level on a monthly projection. Percentage change in precipitation projected by model with RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5 showed uncertainty 3.3 to 5.6 %, 2.9 to 5.2 %, and 3.6 to 7.9 % for 2025 and 2050, respectively. Percentage change of minimum temperature from base temperature showed that 5.1, 4.7, and 5.8 % for 2025 and 9.0, 8.1, and 12.0 % increase for projection year 2050 with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and maximum temperature 2.7, 2.5, and 3.0 % for 2025 and 4.7, 4.4, and 6.4 % for 2050 will be increased with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Uneven increase in precipitation and asymmetric increase in temperature extremes in future would also increase the risk associated with management of climatic uncertainties. Future climate projection will enable us for better risk management decisions.

Dynamic Modeling of Process Technologies for Closed-Loop Water Recovery Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allada, Rama Kumar; Lange, Kevin E.; Anderson, Molly S.

2012-01-01

Detailed chemical process simulations are a useful tool in designing and optimizing complex systems and architectures for human life support. Dynamic and steady-state models of these systems help contrast the interactions of various operating parameters and hardware designs, which become extremely useful in trade-study analyses. NASA s Exploration Life Support technology development project recently made use of such models to compliment a series of tests on different waste water distillation systems. This paper presents dynamic simulations of chemical process for primary processor technologies including: the Cascade Distillation System (CDS), the Vapor Compression Distillation (VCD) system, the Wiped-Film Rotating Disk (WFRD), and post-distillation water polishing processes such as the Volatiles Removal Assembly (VRA). These dynamic models were developed using the Aspen Custom Modeler (Registered TradeMark) and Aspen Plus(Registered TradeMark) process simulation tools. The results expand upon previous work for water recovery technology models and emphasize dynamic process modeling and results. The paper discusses system design, modeling details, and model results for each technology and presents some comparisons between the model results and available test data. Following these initial comparisons, some general conclusions and forward work are discussed.

Development of modelling method selection tool for health services management: from problem structuring methods to modelling and simulation methods.

PubMed

Jun, Gyuchan T; Morris, Zoe; Eldabi, Tillal; Harper, Paul; Naseer, Aisha; Patel, Brijesh; Clarkson, John P

2011-05-19

There is an increasing recognition that modelling and simulation can assist in the process of designing health care policies, strategies and operations. However, the current use is limited and answers to questions such as what methods to use and when remain somewhat underdeveloped. The aim of this study is to provide a mechanism for decision makers in health services planning and management to compare a broad range of modelling and simulation methods so that they can better select and use them or better commission relevant modelling and simulation work. This paper proposes a modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool developed from a comprehensive literature review, the research team's extensive expertise and inputs from potential users. Twenty-eight different methods were identified, characterised by their relevance to different application areas, project life cycle stages, types of output and levels of insight, and four input resources required (time, money, knowledge and data). The characterisation is presented in matrix forms to allow quick comparison and selection. This paper also highlights significant knowledge gaps in the existing literature when assessing the applicability of particular approaches to health services management, where modelling and simulation skills are scarce let alone money and time. A modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool is developed to assist with the selection of methods appropriate to supporting specific decision making processes. In particular it addresses the issue of which method is most appropriate to which specific health services management problem, what the user might expect to be obtained from the method, and what is required to use the method. In summary, we believe the tool adds value to the scarce existing literature on methods comparison and selection.

A model to calculate consistent atmospheric emission projections and its application to Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lumbreras, Julio; Borge, Rafael; de Andrés, Juan Manuel; Rodríguez, Encarnación

Global warming and air quality are headline environmental issues of our time and policy must preempt negative international effects with forward-looking strategies. As part of the revision of the European National Emission Ceilings Directive, atmospheric emission projections for European Union countries are being calculated. These projections are useful to drive European air quality analyses and to support wide-scale decision-making. However, when evaluating specific policies and measures at sectoral level, a more detailed approach is needed. This paper presents an original methodology to evaluate emission projections. Emission projections are calculated for each emitting activity that has emissions under three scenarios: without measures (business as usual), with measures (baseline) and with additional measures (target). The methodology developed allows the estimation of highly disaggregated multi-pollutant, consistent emissions for a whole country or region. In order to assure consistency with past emissions included in atmospheric emission inventories and coherence among the individual activities, the consistent emission projection (CEP) model incorporates harmonization and integration criteria as well as quality assurance/quality check (QA/QC) procedures. This study includes a sensitivity analysis as a first approach to uncertainty evaluation. The aim of the model presented in this contribution is to support decision-making process through the assessment of future emission scenarios taking into account the effect of different detailed technical and non-technical measures and it may also constitute the basis for air quality modelling. The system is designed to produce the information and formats related to international reporting requirements and it allows performing a comparison of national results with lower resolution models such as RAINS/GAINS. The methodology has been successfully applied and tested to evaluate Spanish emission projections up to 2020 for 26 pollutants but the methodology could be adopted for any particular region for different purposes, especially for European countries.

Pretest aerosol code comparisons for LWR aerosol containment tests LA1 and LA2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wright, A.L.; Wilson, J.H.; Arwood, P.C.

The Light-Water-Reactor (LWR) Aerosol Containment Experiments (LACE) are being performed in Richland, Washington, at the Hanford Engineering Development Laboratory (HEDL) under the leadership of an international project board and the Electric Power Research Institute. These tests have two objectives: (1) to investigate, at large scale, the inherent aerosol retention behavior in LWR containments under simulated severe accident conditions, and (2) to provide an experimental data base for validating aerosol behavior and thermal-hydraulic computer codes. Aerosol computer-code comparison activities are being coordinated at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For each of the six LACE tests, ''pretest'' calculations (for code-to-code comparisons) andmore » ''posttest'' calculations (for code-to-test data comparisons) are being performed. The overall goals of the comparison effort are (1) to provide code users with experience in applying their codes to LWR accident-sequence conditions and (2) to evaluate and improve the code models.« less

Evaluation of models proposed for the 1991 revision of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peddie, N.W.

1992-01-01

The 1991 revision of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) comprises a definitive main-field model for 1985.0, a main-field model for 1990.0, and a forecast secular-variation model for the period 1990-1995. The five 1985.0 main-field models and five 1990.0 main-field models that were proposed have been evaluated by comparing them with one another, with magnetic observatory data, and with Project MAGNET aerial survey data. The comparisons indicate that the main-field models proposed by IZMIRAN, and the secular-variation model proposed jointly by the British Geological Survey and the US Naval Oceanographic Office, should be assigned relatively lower weight in the derivation of the new IGRF models. -Author

Evaluation of Koontz Lake (North Indiana) Ecological Restoration Options - Comparison of Dredging and Aeration - and Broad Application to USACE Projects

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-01

Restoration Options – Comparison of Dredging and Aeration – and Broad Application to USACE Projects En vi ro nm en ta l L ab or at or y Victor F. Medina... Projects Victor F. Medina, Kaytee Pokrzywinski, and Edith Martinez-Guerra Environmental Laboratory U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development...Operations Technical Support Program 3909 Halls Ferry Road Vicksburg, MS 39180 Under Project No. TA2017-002, “Evaluation of Koontz Lake (Indiana

Protoplanetary Formation and the FU Orionis Outburst

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bodenheimer, P. H.

1996-01-01

The following three publications which reference the above grant from the NASA Origins of Solar Systems program are attached and form the final technical report for this project. The research involved comparisons of the spectral energy distributions of FU Orionis objects with theoretical models and associated studies of the structure of the outbursting accretion disks, as well as related studies on the effects of magnetic fields in disks, which will lead in the future to models of FU Orionis outbursts which include the effects of magnetic fields. The project was renewed under a new grant NAGW-4456, entitled 'Effects of FU Orionis Outbursts on Protoplanetary Disks'. Work now being prepared for publication deals more specifically with the issue of the effects of the outbursts on protoplanetary formation. Models of the spectral energy distribution of FU Orionis stars. A simple model of a buoyant magnetic dynamo in accretion disks and a numerical study of magnetic buoyancy in an accretion disk have been submitted.

Evaluating and improving cloud phase in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 using spaceborne lidar observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kay, Jennifer E.; Bourdages, Line; Miller, Nathaniel B.; Morrison, Ariel; Yettella, Vineel; Chepfer, Helene; Eaton, Brian

2016-04-01

Spaceborne lidar observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite are used to evaluate cloud amount and cloud phase in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), the atmospheric component of a widely used state-of-the-art global coupled climate model (Community Earth System Model). By embedding a lidar simulator within CAM5, the idiosyncrasies of spaceborne lidar cloud detection and phase assignment are replicated. As a result, this study makes scale-aware and definition-aware comparisons between model-simulated and observed cloud amount and cloud phase. In the global mean, CAM5 has insufficient liquid cloud and excessive ice cloud when compared to CALIPSO observations. Over the ice-covered Arctic Ocean, CAM5 has insufficient liquid cloud in all seasons. Having important implications for projections of future sea level rise, a liquid cloud deficit contributes to a cold bias of 2-3°C for summer daily maximum near-surface air temperatures at Summit, Greenland. Over the midlatitude storm tracks, CAM5 has excessive ice cloud and insufficient liquid cloud. Storm track cloud phase biases in CAM5 maximize over the Southern Ocean, which also has larger-than-observed seasonal variations in cloud phase. Physical parameter modifications reduce the Southern Ocean cloud phase and shortwave radiation biases in CAM5 and illustrate the power of the CALIPSO observations as an observational constraint. The results also highlight the importance of using a regime-based, as opposed to a geographic-based, model evaluation approach. More generally, the results demonstrate the importance and value of simulator-enabled comparisons of cloud phase in models used for future climate projection.

Uncertainties of statistical downscaling from predictor selection: Equifinality and transferability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Guobin; Charles, Stephen P.; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Ekström, Marie; Potter, Nick J.

2018-05-01

The nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) statistical downscaling model, 38 catchments in southeast Australia and 19 general circulation models (GCMs) were used in this study to demonstrate statistical downscaling uncertainties caused by equifinality to and transferability. That is to say, there could be multiple sets of predictors that give similar daily rainfall simulation results for both calibration and validation periods, but project different amounts (or even directions of change) of rainfall changing in the future. Results indicated that two sets of predictors (Set 1 with predictors of sea level pressure north-south gradient, u-wind at 700 hPa, v-wind at 700 hPa, and specific humidity at 700 hPa and Set 2 with predictors of sea level pressure north-south gradient, u-wind at 700 hPa, v-wind at 700 hPa, and dewpoint temperature depression at 850 hPa) as inputs to the NHMM produced satisfactory results of seasonal rainfall in comparison with observations. For example, during the model calibration period, the relative errors across the 38 catchments ranged from 0.48 to 1.76% with a mean value of 1.09% for the predictor Set 1, and from 0.22 to 2.24% with a mean value of 1.16% for the predictor Set 2. However, the changes of future rainfall from NHMM projections based on 19 GCMs produced projections with a different sign for these two different sets of predictors: Set 1 predictors project an increase of future rainfall with magnitudes depending on future time periods and emission scenarios, but Set 2 predictors project a decline of future rainfall. Such divergent projections may present a significant challenge for applications of statistical downscaling as well as climate change impact studies, and could potentially imply caveats in many existing studies in the literature.

Greenland surface albedo changes in July 1981-2012 from satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Tao; Liang, Shunlin; Yu, Yunyue; Wang, Dongdong; Gao, Feng; Liu, Qiang

2013-12-01

Significant melting events over Greenland have been observed over the past few decades. This study presents an analysis of surface albedo change over Greenland using a 32-year consistent satellite albedo product from the global land surface satellite (GLASS) project together with ground measurements. Results show a general decreasing trend of surface albedo from 1981 to 2012 (-0.009 ± 0.002 decade-1, p < 0.01). However, a large decrease has occurred since 2000 (-0.028 ± 0.008 decade-1, p < 0.01) with most significant decreases at elevations between 1000 and 1500 m (-0.055 decade-1, p < 0.01) which may be associated with surface temperature increases. The surface radiative forcing from albedo changes is 2.73 W m-2 decade-1 and 3.06 W m-2 decade-1 under full-sky and clear-sky conditions, respectively, which indicates that surface albedo changes are likely to have a larger impact on the surface shortwave radiation budget than that caused by changes in the atmosphere over Greenland. A comparison made between satellite albedo products and data output from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) shows that most of the CMIP5 models do not detect the significantly decreasing trends of albedo in recent decades. This suggests that more efforts are needed to improve our understanding and simulation of climate change at high latitudes.

Lessons Learned from Numerical Simulations of the F-16XL Aircraft at Flight Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rizzi, Arthur; Jirasek, Adam; Lamar, John; Crippa, Simone; Badcock, Kenneth; Boelens, Oklo

2009-01-01

Nine groups participating in the Cranked Arrow Wing Aerodynamics Project International (CAWAPI) project have contributed steady and unsteady viscous simulations of a full-scale, semi-span model of the F-16XL aircraft. Three different categories of flight Reynolds/Mach number combinations were computed and compared with flight-test measurements for the purpose of code validation and improved understanding of the flight physics. Steady-state simulations are done with several turbulence models of different complexity with no topology information required and which overcome Boussinesq-assumption problems in vortical flows. Detached-eddy simulation (DES) and its successor delayed detached-eddy simulation (DDES) have been used to compute the time accurate flow development. Common structured and unstructured grids as well as individually-adapted unstructured grids were used. Although discrepancies are observed in the comparisons, overall reasonable agreement is demonstrated for surface pressure distribution, local skin friction and boundary velocity profiles at subsonic speeds. The physical modeling, steady or unsteady, and the grid resolution both contribute to the discrepancies observed in the comparisons with flight data, but at this time it cannot be determined how much each part contributes to the whole. Overall it can be said that the technology readiness of CFD-simulation technology for the study of vehicle performance has matured since 2001 such that it can be used today with a reasonable level of confidence for complex configurations.

Experimental comparison of photogrammetry for additive manufactured parts with and without laser speckle projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sims-Waterhouse, D.; Bointon, P.; Piano, S.; Leach, R. K.

2017-06-01

In this paper we show that, by using a photogrammetry system with and without laser speckle, a large range of additive manufacturing (AM) parts with different geometries, materials and post-processing textures can be measured to high accuracy. AM test artefacts have been produced in three materials: polymer powder bed fusion (nylon-12), metal powder bed fusion (Ti-6Al-4V) and polymer material extrusion (ABS plastic). Each test artefact was then measured with the photogrammetry system in both normal and laser speckle projection modes and the resulting point clouds compared with the artefact CAD model. The results show that laser speckle projection can result in a reduction of the point cloud standard deviation from the CAD data of up to 101 μm. A complex relationship with surface texture, artefact geometry and the laser speckle projection is also observed and discussed.

Revisiting the Boeing B-47 and the Avro Vulcan with implications on aircraft design today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Seeters, Philip A.

This project compares the cruise mission performance of the historic Boeing B-47 and Avro Vulcan. The author aims to demonstrate that despite superficial similarities, these aircraft perform quite differently away from their intended design points. The investigation uses computer aided design software, and an aircraft sizing program to generate digital models of both airplanes. Subsequent simulations of various missions quantify the performance mainly in terms of fuel efficiency, and productivity. Based on this comparison, the efforts conclude that these aircraft perform indeed differently, and that a performance comparison based on a design mission alone, is insufficient.

Intercomparison of different uncertainty sources in hydrological climate change projections for an alpine catchment (upper Clutha River, New Zealand)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jobst, Andreas M.; Kingston, Daniel G.; Cullen, Nicolas J.; Schmid, Josef

2018-06-01

As climate change is projected to alter both temperature and precipitation, snow-controlled mid-latitude catchments are expected to experience substantial shifts in their seasonal regime, which will have direct implications for water management. In order to provide authoritative projections of climate change impacts, the uncertainty inherent to all components of the modelling chain needs to be accounted for. This study assesses the uncertainty in potential impacts of climate change on the hydro-climate of a headwater sub-catchment of New Zealand's largest catchment (the Clutha River) using a fully distributed hydrological model (WaSiM) and unique ensemble encompassing different uncertainty sources: general circulation model (GCM), emission scenario, bias correction and snow model. The inclusion of snow models is particularly important, given that (1) they are a rarely considered aspect of uncertainty in hydrological modelling studies, and (2) snow has a considerable influence on seasonal patterns of river flow in alpine catchments such as the Clutha. Projected changes in river flow for the 2050s and 2090s encompass substantial increases in streamflow from May to October, and a decline between December and March. The dominant drivers are changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation (for the 2090s +29 to +84 % in winter) and substantial decreases in the seasonal snow storage due to temperature increase. A quantitative comparison of uncertainty identified GCM structure as the dominant contributor in the seasonal streamflow signal (44-57 %) followed by emission scenario (16-49 %), bias correction (4-22 %) and snow model (3-10 %). While these findings suggest that the role of the snow model is comparatively small, its contribution to the overall uncertainty was still found to be noticeable for winter and summer.

Evaluation and application of regional turbidity-sediment regression models in Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hyer, Kenneth; Jastram, John D.; Moyer, Douglas; Webber, James S.; Chanat, Jeffrey G.

2015-01-01

Conventional thinking has long held that turbidity-sediment surrogate-regression equations are site specific and that regression equations developed at a single monitoring station should not be applied to another station; however, few studies have evaluated this issue in a rigorous manner. If robust regional turbidity-sediment models can be developed successfully, their applications could greatly expand the usage of these methods. Suspended sediment load estimation could occur as soon as flow and turbidity monitoring commence at a site, suspended sediment sampling frequencies for various projects potentially could be reduced, and special-project applications (sediment monitoring following dam removal, for example) could be significantly enhanced. The objective of this effort was to investigate the turbidity-suspended sediment concentration (SSC) relations at all available USGS monitoring sites within Virginia to determine whether meaningful turbidity-sediment regression models can be developed by combining the data from multiple monitoring stations into a single model, known as a “regional” model. Following the development of the regional model, additional objectives included a comparison of predicted SSCs between the regional model and commonly used site-specific models, as well as an evaluation of why specific monitoring stations did not fit the regional model.

Raman Lidar Measurements During the International H2O Project. 2; Instrument Comparisons and Case Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whiteman, D. N.; Demoz, B.; DiGirolamo, P.; Corner, J.; Veselovskii, I.; Evans, K.; Wang, Z.; Sabatino, D.; Schwemmer, G.; Gentry, B.

2005-01-01

The NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) participated in the International H2O Project (IHOP) that occurred in May and June, 2002 in the midwestern part of the U. S. The SRL system configuration and methods of data analysis were described in part I of this paper. In this second part, comparisons of SRL water vapor measurements and those of chilled mirror radiosonde and LASE airborne water vapor lidar are performed. Two case studies are presented; one for daytime and one for nighttime. The daytime case study is of a convectively driven boundary layer event and is used to characterize the SRL water vapor random error characteristics. The nighttime case study is of a thunderstorm-generated cirrus cloud case that is studied in it s meteorological context. Upper tropospheric humidification due to precipitation from the cirrus cloud is quantified as is the cirrus cloud ice water content and particle depolarization ratio. These detailed cirrus cloud measurements are being used in a cirrus cloud modeling study.

Fluorescence detection of white-beam X-ray absorption anisotropy: towards element-sensitive projections of local atomic structure

PubMed Central

Korecki, P.; Tolkiehn, M.; Dąbrowski, K. M.; Novikov, D. V.

2011-01-01

Projections of the atomic structure around Nb atoms in a LiNbO3 single crystal were obtained from a white-beam X-ray absorption anisotropy (XAA) pattern detected using Nb K fluorescence. This kind of anisotropy results from the interference of X-rays inside a sample and, owing to the short coherence length of a white beam, is visible only at small angles around interatomic directions. Consequently, the main features of the recorded XAA corresponded to distorted real-space projections of dense-packed atomic planes and atomic rows. A quantitative analysis of XAA was carried out using a wavelet transform and allowed well resolved projections of Nb atoms to be obtained up to distances of 10 Å. The signal of nearest O atoms was detected indirectly by a comparison with model calculations. The measurement of white-beam XAA using characteristic radiation indicates the possibility of obtaining element-sensitive projections of the local atomic structure in more complex samples. PMID:21997909

The Desert Storms Project - Towards an Improved Representation of Meteorological Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knippertz, P.; Marsham, J. H.; Schepanski, K.; Heinold, B.; Cowie, S.; Fiedler, S.; Roberts, A. J.

2012-04-01

Dust significantly affects weather and climate through its influences on radiation, cloud microphysics, atmospheric chemistry and the carbon cycle via the fertilization of ecosystems. It also has important impacts on air quality and human health. To date, quantitative estimates of dust emission and deposition are highly uncertain. This is largely due to the strongly nonlinear dependence of emissions on peak winds, which are often underestimated in models and analysis data. This contribution serves to introduce the general motivation and approach of the recently started "Desert Storms" project at the University of Leeds. It is funded by the European Research Council (ERC) and runs until 2015. The core objective of this project is to explore ways of better representing crucial meteorological processes in numerical dust models. These include daytime downward mixing of momentum from nocturnal low-level jets, convective cold pools (sometimes referred to as "haboobs") and small-scale dust devils and plumes in the daytime convective boundary layer. To achieve this, the following steps are currently undertaken: (A) a detailed analysis of observations including station data, measurements from recent and future field campaigns, analysis data and novel satellite products, (B) a comprehensive comparison between output from a wide range of global and regional dust models, and (C) extensive sensitivity studies with regional and large-eddy simulation models in realistic and idealized set-ups to explore effects of resolution and model physics. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop novel parameterizations that link gridscale quantities with probabilities of winds exceeding a given threshold within the gridbox. Liaising with the regional and global aerosol and dust modelling community right from the outset of the project helps to ensure that results are targeted towards operational and Earth system modelling needs. First detailed results from "Desert Storms" will be presented in several accompanying contributions in the same session.

PMG: Numerical model of a fault tolerant permanent magnet generator for high rpm applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertrand, Alexandre

The aerospace industry is confronting an increasing number of challenges these days. One can think for instance of the environmental challenges as well as the economic and social ones to name a few. These challenges have forced the industry to turn their design philosophy toward new ways of doing things. It is in this context that was born the More Electrical Aircraft (MEA) concept. This concept aims at giving a more prominent part to electrical power in the overall installed power balance aboard aircrafts (in comparison to more traditional power sources such as mechanical and hydraulic). In order to be able to support this increasing demand in electrical power, the electric power generation aboard aircrafts needed reengineering. This is one of the main reasons the More Electrical Engine (MEE) concept was born: to serve the needs of the MEA philosophy. It is precisely under the MEE concept that this project takes place. This project, realized in collaboration with Pratt & Whitney Canada (PWC), is a first attempt at the electrical modelling of this new type of electrical generator designed for aircrafts. The main objectives of this project are to understand the principles of operation of the New Architecture Electromagnetic Machine (NAEM) and to build a simplified model for EMTP-RV for steady-state simulations. This document contains the results that were obtained during the electrical modelling project of the New Architecture Electromagnetic Machine (NAEM) by the author using data from PWC. The model built by PWC using MagNet, a finite element analysis software, was used as the reference during the project. It was possible to develop an electrical model of the generator that replicate with a good accuracy the behaviour of the model of reference under steady-state operation. Some technical avenues are explored in the discussion in order to list the key improvements that will need to be done to the electrical model in future work.

A step-by-step methodology for enterprise interoperability projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalmeta, Ricardo; Pazos, Verónica

2015-05-01

Enterprise interoperability is one of the key factors for enhancing enterprise competitiveness. Achieving enterprise interoperability is an extremely complex process which involves different technological, human and organisational elements. In this paper we present a framework to help enterprise interoperability. The framework has been developed taking into account the three domains of interoperability: Enterprise Modelling, Architecture and Platform and Ontologies. The main novelty of the framework in comparison to existing ones is that it includes a step-by-step methodology that explains how to carry out an enterprise interoperability project taking into account different interoperability views, like business, process, human resources, technology, knowledge and semantics.

A PDF closure model for compressible turbulent chemically reacting flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kollmann, W.

1992-01-01

The objective of the proposed research project was the analysis of single point closures based on probability density function (pdf) and characteristic functions and the development of a prediction method for the joint velocity-scalar pdf in turbulent reacting flows. Turbulent flows of boundary layer type and stagnation point flows with and without chemical reactions were be calculated as principal applications. Pdf methods for compressible reacting flows were developed and tested in comparison with available experimental data. The research work carried in this project was concentrated on the closure of pdf equations for incompressible and compressible turbulent flows with and without chemical reactions.

Computational model of miniature pulsating heat pipes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martinez, Mario J.; Givler, Richard C.

The modeling work described herein represents Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) portion of a collaborative three-year project with Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems (NGES) and the University of Missouri to develop an advanced, thermal ground-plane (TGP), which is a device, of planar configuration, that delivers heat from a source to an ambient environment with high efficiency. Work at all three institutions was funded by DARPA/MTO; Sandia was funded under DARPA/MTO project number 015070924. This is the final report on this project for SNL. This report presents a numerical model of a pulsating heat pipe, a device employing a two phase (liquid andmore » its vapor) working fluid confined in a closed loop channel etched/milled into a serpentine configuration in a solid metal plate. The device delivers heat from an evaporator (hot zone) to a condenser (cold zone). This new model includes key physical processes important to the operation of flat plate pulsating heat pipes (e.g. dynamic bubble nucleation, evaporation and condensation), together with conjugate heat transfer with the solid portion of the device. The model qualitatively and quantitatively predicts performance characteristics and metrics, which was demonstrated by favorable comparisons with experimental results on similar configurations. Application of the model also corroborated many previous performance observations with respect to key parameters such as heat load, fill ratio and orientation.« less

Bayesian X-ray computed tomography using a three-level hierarchical prior model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali; Gac, Nicolas

2017-06-01

In recent decades X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) image reconstruction has been largely developed in both medical and industrial domain. In this paper, we propose using the Bayesian inference approach with a new hierarchical prior model. In the proposed model, a generalised Student-t distribution is used to enforce the Haar transformation of images to be sparse. Comparisons with some state of the art methods are presented. It is shown that by using the proposed model, the sparsity of sparse representation of images is enforced, so that edges of images are preserved. Simulation results are also provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new hierarchical model for reconstruction with fewer projections.

Performance, size, mass, and cost estimates for projected 1kW EOL Si, InP, and GaAs arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slifer, Luther W., Jr.

1991-01-01

One method of evaluating the potential of emerging solar cell and array technologies is to compare their projected capabilities in space flight applications to those of established Si solar cells and arrays. Such an application-oriented comparison provides an integrated view of the elemental comparisons of efficiency, radiation resistance, temperature sensitivity, size, mass, and cost in combination. In addition, the assumptions necessary to make the comparisons provide insights helpful toward determining necessary areas of development or evaluation. Finally, as developments and evaluations progress, the results can be used in more precisely defining the overall potential of the new technologies in comparison to existing technologies. The projected capabilities of Si, InP, and GaAs cells and arrays are compared.

How Might Recharge Change Under Projected Climate Change in Western US?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niraula, R.; Meixner, T.; Rodell, M.; Ajami, H.; Gochis, D. J.; Castro, C. L.

2015-12-01

Although ground water is a major source of water in the western US, little research has been done on the impacts of climate change on western groundwater storage and recharge. Here we assess the impact of projected changes in precipitation and temperature on groundwater recharge across the western US by dividing the domain into five major regions (viz. Northern Rockies and Plains, South, Southwest, Northwest and West). Hydrologic outputs from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model based on Bias-Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections from 11 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for Representative Concentration pathway 6.0 (RCP 6.0) scenarios were selected for projecting changes in recharge. Projections are made for near future (2020-2050) and far future (2070-2100) relative to the historical period (1970-2000). Averaged over the domain, half of the GCMs caused VIC to increase recharge across the region while the remaining half resulted in decreased recharge for both the near (-10.1% to 5.8%) and far (-9.7% to 17%) future. A majority (9 out of 11 GCMs) of the VIC simulations projected increased recharge in the Northern Rockies and Plains for both the near and far future. A majority of the simulations agreed on reduced recharge in other regions for the near future. For the far future, a majority of the simulations agreed on decreased recharge in the South (9 out of 11 GCMs) and Southwest (7 out of 11 GCMs) regions. The change is projected to be largest for the South region which could see recharged reduced by as much as 50%. Changes in recharge in the Northwest region are predicted to be small (within 10% of historical recharge). Despite the large variability in projected recharge across the GCMs, recharge projections from this study will help water managers with long term water management planning.

Collaborative Project: Development of an Isotope-Enabled CESM for Testing Abrupt Climate Changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Zhengyu

One of the most important validations for a state-of-art Earth System Model (ESM) with respect to climate changes is the simulation of the climate evolution and abrupt climate change events in the Earth’s history of the last 21,000 years. However, one great challenge for model validation is that ESMs usually do not directly simulate geochemical variables that can be compared directly with past proxy records. In this proposal, we have met this challenge by developing the simulation capability of major isotopes in a state-of-art ESM, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), enabling us to make direct model-data comparison by comparingmore » the model directly against proxy climate records. Our isotope-enabled ESM incorporates the capability of simulating key isotopes and geotracers, notably δ 18O, δD, δ 14C, and δ 13C, Nd and Pa/Th. The isotope-enabled ESM have been used to perform some simulations for the last 21000 years. The direct comparison of these simulations with proxy records has shed light on the mechanisms of important climate change events.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the “Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts” (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Collaborative Physical Chemistry Projects Involving Computational Chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whisnant, David M.; Howe, Jerry J.; Lever, Lisa S.

2000-02-01

The physical chemistry classes from three colleges have collaborated on two computational chemistry projects using Quantum CAChe 3.0 and Gaussian 94W running on Pentium II PCs. Online communication by email and the World Wide Web was an important part of the collaboration. In the first project, students used molecular modeling to predict benzene derivatives that might be possible hair dyes. They used PM3 and ZINDO calculations to predict the electronic spectra of the molecules and tested the predicted spectra by comparing some with experimental measurements. They also did literature searches for real hair dyes and possible health effects. In the final phase of the project they proposed a synthetic pathway for one compound. In the second project the students were asked to predict which isomer of a small carbon cluster (C3, C4, or C5) was responsible for a series of IR lines observed in the spectrum of a carbon star. After preliminary PM3 calculations, they used ab initio calculations at the HF/6-31G(d) and MP2/6-31G(d) level to model the molecules and predict their vibrational frequencies and rotational constants. A comparison of the predictions with the experimental spectra suggested that the linear isomer of the C5 molecule was responsible for the lines.

Comparing approaches for using climate projections in assessing water resources investments for systems with multiple stakeholder groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurford, Anthony; Harou, Julien

2015-04-01

Climate change has challenged conventional methods of planning water resources infrastructure investment, relying on stationarity of time-series data. It is not clear how to best use projections of future climatic conditions. Many-objective simulation-optimisation and trade-off analysis using evolutionary algorithms has been proposed as an approach to addressing complex planning problems with multiple conflicting objectives. The search for promising assets and policies can be carried out across a range of climate projections, to identify the configurations of infrastructure investment shown by model simulation to be robust under diverse future conditions. Climate projections can be used in different ways within a simulation model to represent the range of possible future conditions and understand how optimal investments vary according to the different hydrological conditions. We compare two approaches, optimising over an ensemble of different 20-year flow and PET timeseries projections, and separately for individual future scenarios built synthetically from the original ensemble. Comparing trade-off curves and surfaces generated by the two approaches helps understand the limits and benefits of optimising under different sets of conditions. The comparison is made for the Tana Basin in Kenya, where climate change combined with multiple conflicting objectives of water management and infrastructure investment mean decision-making is particularly challenging.

Acceleration of Monte Carlo SPECT simulation using convolution-based forced detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, H. W. A. M.; Slijpen, E. T. P.; Beekman, F. J.

2001-02-01

Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is an established tool to calculate photon transport through tissue in Emission Computed Tomography (ECT). Since the first appearance of MC a large variety of variance reduction techniques (VRT) have been introduced to speed up these notoriously slow simulations. One example of a very effective and established VRT is known as forced detection (FD). In standard FD the path from the photon's scatter position to the camera is chosen stochastically from the appropriate probability density function (PDF), modeling the distance-dependent detector response. In order to speed up MC the authors propose a convolution-based FD (CFD) which involves replacing the sampling of the PDF by a convolution with a kernel which depends on the position of the scatter event. The authors validated CFD for parallel-hole Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT) using a digital thorax phantom. Comparison of projections estimated with CFD and standard FD shows that both estimates converge to practically identical projections (maximum bias 0.9% of peak projection value), despite the slightly different photon paths used in CFD and standard FD. Projections generated with CFD converge, however, to a noise-free projection up to one or two orders of magnitude faster, which is extremely useful in many applications such as model-based image reconstruction.

Obs4MIPS: Satellite Observations for Model Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferraro, R.; Waliser, D. E.; Gleckler, P. J.

2017-12-01

This poster will review the current status of the obs4MIPs project, whose purpose is to provide a limited collection of well-established and documented datasets for comparison with Earth system models (https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/obs4mips/). These datasets have been reformatted to correspond with the CMIP5 model output requirements, and include technical documentation specifically targeted for their use in model output evaluation. The project holdings now exceed 120 datasets with observations that directly correspond to CMIP5 model output variables, with new additions in response to the CMIP6 experiments. With the growth in climate model output data volume, it is increasing more difficult to bring the model output and the observations together to do evaluations. The positioning of the obs4MIPs datasets within the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) allows for the use of currently available and planned online tools within the ESGF to perform analysis using model output and observational datasets without necessarily downloading everything to a local workstation. This past year, obs4MIPs has updated its submission guidelines to closely align with changes in the CMIP6 experiments, and is implementing additional indicators and ancillary data to allow users to more easily determine the efficacy of an obs4MIPs dataset for specific evaluation purposes. This poster will present the new guidelines and indicators, and update the list of current obs4MIPs holdings and their connection to the ESGF evaluation and analysis tools currently available, and being developed for the CMIP6 experiments.

Seltzer_et_al_2016

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This dataset supports the modeling study of Seltzer et al. (2016) published in Atmospheric Environment. In this study, techniques typically used for future air quality projections are applied to a historical 11-year period to assess the performance of the modeling system when the driving meteorological conditions are obtained using dynamical downscaling of coarse-scale fields without correcting toward higher resolution observations. The Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model are used to simulate regional climate and air quality over the contiguous United States for 2000-2010. The air quality simulations for that historical period are then compared to observations from four national networks. Comparisons are drawn between defined performance metrics and other published modeling results for predicted ozone, fine particulate matter, and speciated fine particulate matter. The results indicate that the historical air quality simulations driven by dynamically downscaled meteorology are typically within defined modeling performance benchmarks and are consistent with results from other published modeling studies using finer-resolution meteorology. This indicates that the regional climate and air quality modeling framework utilized here does not introduce substantial bias, which provides confidence in the method??s use for future air quality projections.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Seltzer, K., C

Unsupervised chunking based on graph propagation from bilingual corpus.

PubMed

Zhu, Ling; Wong, Derek F; Chao, Lidia S

2014-01-01

This paper presents a novel approach for unsupervised shallow parsing model trained on the unannotated Chinese text of parallel Chinese-English corpus. In this approach, no information of the Chinese side is applied. The exploitation of graph-based label propagation for bilingual knowledge transfer, along with an application of using the projected labels as features in unsupervised model, contributes to a better performance. The experimental comparisons with the state-of-the-art algorithms show that the proposed approach is able to achieve impressive higher accuracy in terms of F-score.

Infrared Algorithm Development for Ocean Observations with EOS/MODIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Otis B.

1997-01-01

Efforts continue under this contract to develop algorithms for the computation of sea surface temperature (SST) from MODIS infrared measurements. This effort includes radiative transfer modeling, comparison of in situ and satellite observations, development and evaluation of processing and networking methodologies for algorithm computation and data accession, evaluation of surface validation approaches for IR radiances, development of experimental instrumentation, and participation in MODIS (project) related activities. Activities in this contract period have focused on radiative transfer modeling, evaluation of atmospheric correction methodologies, undertake field campaigns, analysis of field data, and participation in MODIS meetings.

Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project. Phase 1: The Critical Components to Simulate Cirrus Initiation Explicitly.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ruei-Fong; O'C. Starr, David; Demott, Paul J.; Cotton, Richard; Sassen, Kenneth; Jensen, Eric; Kärcher, Bernd; Liu, Xiaohong

2002-08-01

The Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project, a project of the GCSS [Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud System Studies] Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems, involves the systematic comparison of current models of ice crystal nucleation and growth for specified, typical, cirrus cloud environments. In Phase 1 of the project reported here, simulated cirrus cloud microphysical properties from seven models are compared for `warm' (40°C) and `cold' (60°C) cirrus, each subject to updrafts of 0.04, 0.2, and 1 m s1. The models employ explicit microphysical schemes wherein the size distribution of each class of particles (aerosols and ice crystals) is resolved into bins or the evolution of each individual particle is traced. Simulations are made including both homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanisms (all-mode simulations). A single initial aerosol population of sulfuric acid particles is prescribed for all simulations. Heterogeneous nucleation is disabled for a second parallel set of simulations in order to isolate the treatment of the homogeneous freezing (of haze droplets) nucleation process. Analysis of these latter simulations is the primary focus of this paper.Qualitative agreement is found for the homogeneous-nucleation-only simulations; for example, the number density of nucleated ice crystals increases with the strength of the prescribed updraft. However, significant quantitative differences are found. Detailed analysis reveals that the homogeneous nucleation rate, haze particle solution concentration, and water vapor uptake rate by ice crystal growth (particularly as controlled by the deposition coefficient) are critical components that lead to differences in the predicted microphysics.Systematic differences exist between results based on a modified classical theory approach and models using an effective freezing temperature approach to the treatment of nucleation. Each method is constrained by critical freezing data from laboratory studies, but each includes assumptions that can only be justified by further laboratory research. Consequently, it is not yet clear if the two approaches can be made consistent. Large haze particles may deviate considerably from equilibrium size in moderate to strong updrafts (0.2-1 m s1) at 60°C. The equilibrium assumption is commonly invoked in cirrus parcel models. The resulting difference in particle-size-dependent solution concentration of haze particles may significantly affect the ice particle formation rate during the initial nucleation interval. The uptake rate for water vapor excess by ice crystals is another key component regulating the total number of nucleated ice crystals. This rate, the product of particle number concentration and ice crystal diffusional growth rate, which is particularly sensitive to the deposition coefficient when ice particles are small, modulates the peak particle formation rate achieved in an air parcel and the duration of the active nucleation time period. The consequent differences in cloud microphysical properties, and thus cloud optical properties, between state-of-the-art models of ice crystal initiation are significant.Intermodel differences in the case of all-mode simulations are correspondingly greater than in the case of homogeneous nucleation acting alone. Definitive laboratory and atmospheric benchmark data are needed to improve the treatment of heterogeneous nucleation processes.

Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan; Farda, Aleš

2018-02-01

The study examines climate change scenarios of Central European heat waves with a focus on related uncertainties in a large ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects. Historical runs (1970-1999) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are evaluated against the E-OBS gridded data set in the first step. Although the RCMs are found to reproduce the frequency of heat waves quite well, those RCMs with the coarser grid (25 and 50 km) considerably overestimate the frequency of severe heat waves. This deficiency is improved in higher-resolution (12.5 km) EURO-CORDEX RCMs. In the near future (2020-2049), heat waves are projected to be nearly twice as frequent in comparison to the modelled historical period, and the increase is even larger for severe heat waves. Uncertainty originates mainly from the selection of RCMs and GCMs because the increase is similar for all concentration scenarios. For the late twenty-first century (2070-2099), a substantial increase in heat wave frequencies is projected, the magnitude of which depends mainly upon concentration scenario. Three to four heat waves per summer are projected in this period (compared to less than one in the recent climate), and severe heat waves are likely to become a regular phenomenon. This increment is primarily driven by a positive shift of temperature distribution, but changes in its scale and enhanced temporal autocorrelation of temperature also contribute to the projected increase in heat wave frequencies.

Construction of robust prognostic predictors by using projective adaptive resonance theory as a gene filtering method.

PubMed

Takahashi, Hiro; Kobayashi, Takeshi; Honda, Hiroyuki

2005-01-15

For establishing prognostic predictors of various diseases using DNA microarray analysis technology, it is desired to find selectively significant genes for constructing the prognostic model and it is also necessary to eliminate non-specific genes or genes with error before constructing the model. We applied projective adaptive resonance theory (PART) to gene screening for DNA microarray data. Genes selected by PART were subjected to our FNN-SWEEP modeling method for the construction of a cancer class prediction model. The model performance was evaluated through comparison with a conventional screening signal-to-noise (S2N) method or nearest shrunken centroids (NSC) method. The FNN-SWEEP predictor with PART screening could discriminate classes of acute leukemia in blinded data with 97.1% accuracy and classes of lung cancer with 90.0% accuracy, while the predictor with S2N was only 85.3 and 70.0% or the predictor with NSC was 88.2 and 90.0%, respectively. The results have proven that PART was superior for gene screening. The software is available upon request from the authors. honda@nubio.nagoya-u.ac.jp

Comparison of software models for energy savings from cool roofs

DOE PAGES

New, Joshua; Miller, William A.; Huang, Yu; ...

2015-06-07

For this study, a web-based Roof Savings Calculator (RSC) has been deployed for the United States Department of Energy as an industry-consensus tool to help building owners, manufacturers, distributors, contractors and researchers easily run complex roof and attic simulations. RSC simulates multiple roof and attic technologies for side-by-side comparison including reflective roofs, different roof slopes, above sheathing ventilation, radiant barriers, low-emittance roof surfaces, duct location, duct leakage rates, multiple substrate types, and insulation levels. Annual simulations of hour-by-hour, whole-building performance are used to provide estimated annual energy and cost savings from reduced HVAC use. While RSC reported similar cooling savingsmore » to other simulation engines, heating penalty varied significantly. RSC results show reduced cool roofing cost-effectiveness, thus mitigating expected economic incentives for this countermeasure to the urban heat island effect. This paper consolidates comparison of RSC's projected energy savings to other simulation engines including DOE-2.1E, AtticSim, Micropas, and EnergyPlus. Also included are comparisons to previous simulation-based studies, analysis of RSC cooling savings and heating penalties, the role of radiative heat exchange in an attic assembly, and changes made for increased accuracy of the duct model. Finally, radiant heat transfer and duct interaction not previously modeled is considered a major contributor to heating penalties.« less

SU-C-209-02: 3D Fluoroscopic Image Generation From Patient-Specific 4DCBCT-Based Motion Models Derived From Clinical Patient Images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dhou, S; Cai, W; Hurwitz, M

Purpose: We develop a method to generate time varying volumetric images (3D fluoroscopic images) using patient-specific motion models derived from four-dimensional cone-beam CT (4DCBCT). Methods: Motion models are derived by selecting one 4DCBCT phase as a reference image, and registering the remaining images to it. Principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the resultant displacement vector fields (DVFs) to create a reduced set of PCA eigenvectors that capture the majority of respiratory motion. 3D fluoroscopic images are generated by optimizing the weights of the PCA eigenvectors iteratively through comparison of measured cone-beam projections and simulated projections generated from the motionmore » model. This method was applied to images from five lung-cancer patients. The spatial accuracy of this method is evaluated by comparing landmark positions in the 3D fluoroscopic images to manually defined ground truth positions in the patient cone-beam projections. Results: 4DCBCT motion models were shown to accurately generate 3D fluoroscopic images when the patient cone-beam projections contained clearly visible structures moving with respiration (e.g., the diaphragm). When no moving anatomical structure was clearly visible in the projections, the 3D fluoroscopic images generated did not capture breathing deformations, and reverted to the reference image. For the subset of 3D fluoroscopic images generated from projections with visibly moving anatomy, the average tumor localization error and the 95th percentile were 1.6 mm and 3.1 mm respectively. Conclusion: This study showed that 4DCBCT-based 3D fluoroscopic images can accurately capture respiratory deformations in a patient dataset, so long as the cone-beam projections used contain visible structures that move with respiration. For clinical implementation of 3D fluoroscopic imaging for treatment verification, an imaging field of view (FOV) that contains visible structures moving with respiration should be selected. If no other appropriate structures are visible, the images should include the diaphragm. This project was supported, in part, through a Master Research Agreement with Varian Medical Systems, Inc, Palo Alto, CA.« less

Comparing data of terrestrial LiDAR and UAV (photogrammetric) in the context of the project "SedAlp"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abel, Judith; Wegner, Kerstin; Haas, Florian; Heckmann, Tobias; Becht, Michael

2014-05-01

The project "SedAlp" (Sediment management in Alpine basins: integrating sediment continuum, risk mitigation and hydropower) concentrates on problems and approaches related to sediment transfer in the alpine region and is embedded in the European transnational cooperation program "Alpine Space". The catholic University Eichstätt-Ingolstadt contributes the German part to this project on behalf of the Bavarian Environment Agency and in collaboration with the Authority of Water Resources Weilheim. The area of interest is the river Isar between the Sylvenstein reservoir and the city of Bad Tölz, Bavaria, Germany. The main aim of the activities is to quantify the transfer of sediments from the tributary catchments to the river Isar, specifically in light of the fact that the construction of the Sylvenstein reservoir in the mid 1950ies has created a barrier to longitudinal sediment transfer, thus heavily impacting the sediment budget and morphodynamics of the Isar reaches downstream. Moreover, the further development of artificially inserted gravel deposits and the effect of dismantling reinforcement structures at the river banks need investigation. Therefore, the dynamics of alluvial fans and gravel bars in the areas of confluence of tributary torrents are monitored using multitemporal surveys with terrestrial laserscanners and drone-based imagery. The latter is used both for the generation of high-resolution digital elevation models and for the mapping of changes in comparison to historical aerial photos. This study focuses on a comparison of TLS and UAV-based photogrammetric digital elevation models in order to highlight advantages and disadvantages of the two methods in relation to the SedAlp-specific research problems. It is shown that UAV-based elevation models are highly accurate alternatives to TLS-based models; due to their favourable acquisition geometry with respect to the topography in floodplain areas, and their large areal coverage, their use is seen as advantageous.

Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

2016-04-01

The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

A biomechanical modeling-guided simultaneous motion estimation and image reconstruction technique (SMEIR-Bio) for 4D-CBCT reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Xiaokun; Zhang, You; Wang, Jing

2018-02-01

Reconstructing four-dimensional cone-beam computed tomography (4D-CBCT) images directly from respiratory phase-sorted traditional 3D-CBCT projections can capture target motion trajectory, reduce motion artifacts, and reduce imaging dose and time. However, the limited numbers of projections in each phase after phase-sorting decreases CBCT image quality under traditional reconstruction techniques. To address this problem, we developed a simultaneous motion estimation and image reconstruction (SMEIR) algorithm, an iterative method that can reconstruct higher quality 4D-CBCT images from limited projections using an inter-phase intensity-driven motion model. However, the accuracy of the intensity-driven motion model is limited in regions with fine details whose quality is degraded due to insufficient projection number, which consequently degrades the reconstructed image quality in corresponding regions. In this study, we developed a new 4D-CBCT reconstruction algorithm by introducing biomechanical modeling into SMEIR (SMEIR-Bio) to boost the accuracy of the motion model in regions with small fine structures. The biomechanical modeling uses tetrahedral meshes to model organs of interest and solves internal organ motion using tissue elasticity parameters and mesh boundary conditions. This physics-driven approach enhances the accuracy of solved motion in the organ’s fine structures regions. This study used 11 lung patient cases to evaluate the performance of SMEIR-Bio, making both qualitative and quantitative comparisons between SMEIR-Bio, SMEIR, and the algebraic reconstruction technique with total variation regularization (ART-TV). The reconstruction results suggest that SMEIR-Bio improves the motion model’s accuracy in regions containing small fine details, which consequently enhances the accuracy and quality of the reconstructed 4D-CBCT images.

RL10A-3-3A Rocket Engine Modeling Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Binder, Michael; Tomsik, Thomas; Veres, Joseph P.

1997-01-01

Two RL10A-3-3A rocket engines comprise the main propulsion system for the Centaur upper stage vehicle. Centaur is used with bod Titan and Atlas launch vehicles, carrying military and civilian payloads from high altitudes into orbit and beyond. The RL10 has delivered highly reliable service for the past 30 years. Recently, however, there have been two in-flight failures which have refocused attention on the RL10. This heightened interest has sparked a desire for an independent RL10 modeling capability within NASA and th Air Force. Pratt & Whitney, which presently has the most detailed model of the RL10, also sees merit in having an independent model which could be used as a cross-check with their own simulations. The Space Propulsion Technology Division (SPTD) at the NASA Lewis Research Center has developed a computer model of the RL10A-3-3A. A project team was formed, consisting of experts in the areas of turbomachinery, combustion, and heat transfer. The overall goal of the project was to provide a model of the entire RL10 rocket engine for government use. In the course of the project, the major engine components have been modeled using a combination of simple correlations and detailed component analysis tools (computer codes). The results of these component analyses were verified with data provided by Pratt & Whitney. Select modeling results and test data curves were then integrated to form the RL10 engine system model The purpose of this report is to introduce the reader to the RL10 rocket engine and to describe the engine system model. The RL10 engine and its application to U.S. launch vehicles are described first, followed by a summary of the SPTD project organization, goals, and accomplishments. Simulated output from the system model are shown in comparison with test and flight data for start transient, steady state, and shut-down transient operations. Detailed descriptions of all component analyses, including those not selected for integration with the system model, are included as appendices.

Underwater 3D Surface Measurement Using Fringe Projection Based Scanning Devices

PubMed Central

Bräuer-Burchardt, Christian; Heinze, Matthias; Schmidt, Ingo; Kühmstedt, Peter; Notni, Gunther

2015-01-01

In this work we show the principle of optical 3D surface measurements based on the fringe projection technique for underwater applications. The challenges of underwater use of this technique are shown and discussed in comparison with the classical application. We describe an extended camera model which takes refraction effects into account as well as a proposal of an effective, low-effort calibration procedure for underwater optical stereo scanners. This calibration technique combines a classical air calibration based on the pinhole model with ray-based modeling and requires only a few underwater recordings of an object of known length and a planar surface. We demonstrate a new underwater 3D scanning device based on the fringe projection technique. It has a weight of about 10 kg and the maximal water depth for application of the scanner is 40 m. It covers an underwater measurement volume of 250 mm × 200 mm × 120 mm. The surface of the measurement objects is captured with a lateral resolution of 150 μm in a third of a second. Calibration evaluation results are presented and examples of first underwater measurements are given. PMID:26703624

Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2010-01-01

Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.

Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the Western Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Manz, Bastian; Véliz Rosas, Claudia; Willems, Patrick; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

2016-01-01

The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research because of its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rainforests in carbon cycling. Climate change has also a direct hydrological impact, and increasing efforts have focused on understanding the hydrological dynamics at continental and subregional scales, such as the Western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river. Using extreme value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 yr. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100 yr return floods). These findings agree with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amidst a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rainforest system over greater Amazonia.

Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hydro2k Consortium, Pages

2017-12-01

Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.

Comparing Proxy and Model Estimates of Hydroclimate Variability and Change over the Common Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smerdon, Jason E.; Luterbacher, Jurg; Phipps, Steven J.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Ault, Toby; Coats, Sloan; Cobb, Kim M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Colose, Chris; Felis, Thomas;

A fast and direct spectrophotometric method for the simultaneous determination of methyl paraben and hydroquinone in cosmetic products using successive projections algorithm.

PubMed

Esteki, M; Nouroozi, S; Shahsavari, Z

2016-02-01

To develop a simple and efficient spectrophotometric technique combined with chemometrics for the simultaneous determination of methyl paraben (MP) and hydroquinone (HQ) in cosmetic products, and specifically, to: (i) evaluate the potential use of successive projections algorithm (SPA) to derivative spectrophotometric data in order to provide sufficient accuracy and model robustness and (ii) determine MP and HQ concentration in cosmetics without tedious pre-treatments such as derivatization or extraction techniques which are time-consuming and require hazardous solvents. The absorption spectra were measured in the wavelength range of 200-350 nm. Prior to performing chemometric models, the original and first-derivative absorption spectra of binary mixtures were used as calibration matrices. Variable selected by successive projections algorithm was used to obtain multiple linear regression (MLR) models based on a small subset of wavelengths. The number of wavelengths and the starting vector were optimized, and the comparison of the root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) and cross-validation (RMSECV) was applied to select effective wavelengths with the least collinearity and redundancy. Principal component regression (PCR) and partial least squares (PLS) were also developed for comparison. The concentrations of the calibration matrix ranged from 0.1 to 20 μg mL(-1) for MP, and from 0.1 to 25 μg mL(-1) for HQ. The constructed models were tested on an external validation data set and finally cosmetic samples. The results indicated that successive projections algorithm-multiple linear regression (SPA-MLR), applied on the first-derivative spectra, achieved the optimal performance for two compounds when compared with the full-spectrum PCR and PLS. The root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) was 0.083, 0.314 for MP and HQ, respectively. To verify the accuracy of the proposed method, a recovery study on real cosmetic samples was carried out with satisfactory results (84-112%). The proposed method, which is an environmentally friendly approach, using minimum amount of solvent, is a simple, fast and low-cost analysis method that can provide high accuracy and robust models. The suggested method does not need any complex extraction procedure which is time-consuming and requires hazardous solvents. © 2015 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

77 FR 17044 - Applications for New Awards; Strengthening Institutions Program (SIP)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-23

... 27637), and apply to the priorities in this notice: Carefully matched comparison group design means a... make when designing a carefully matched comparison group study. Applicants might want to consider...) or not to participate in the project (control group). The effect of the project is the average...

Pupils' View of Mathematics: Initial Report for an International Comparison Project. Research Report 152.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pehkonen, Erkki

This report describes the theoretical background of an international comparison project on pupils' mathematical beliefs and outlines its realization. The first chapter briefly discusses problems with the underlying concepts of "belief" and "conception." The central concept, view of mathematics, is introduced in the second…

A Data Analysis Approach to Evaluating Achievement Outcomes of Instruction. Technical Report No. 338. Report from the Project on Conditions of School Learning and Instructional Strategies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quilling, Mary Rintoul

The purpose of the present study is to demonstrate the utility of data analysis methodology in evaluative research relating pupil and curriculum variables to pupil achievement. Regression models which account for achievement will result from the application of the methodology to two evaluative problems--one of curriculum comparison and another…

Appraising Healthcare Delivery Provision: A Framework to Model Business Processes.

PubMed

Luzi, Daniela; Pecoraro, Fabrizio; Tamburis, Oscar

2017-01-01

Children are dependent on a reliable healthcare system, especially for the delivery of care which crosses the primary/secondary care boundary. A methodology based on UML has been developed to capture and single out meaningful parts of the child healthcare pathways in order to facilitate comparison among 30 EU countries within the MOCHA project. A first application of this methodology has been reported considering asthma management as an example.

Cost, Schedule, And Performance Elements For Comparison of Hydrodynamic Models of Near-Surface Unmanned Underwater Vehicle Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 ii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iii Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. COST ...from the scope of this demonstration due to time constraints. Further study of this software would benefit similar cost , schedule, and performance...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA SYSTEMS ENGINEERING CAPSTONE PROJECT REPORT Approved for public release. Distribution

Implementation and Performance of Factorized Back projection on Low-Cost Commercial-Off-the-Shelf Hardware

DTIC Science & Technology

performance on a low cost, low size, weight, and power (SWAP) computer : a Raspberry Pi Model B. For a comparison of performance, a baseline implementation...improvement factor of 2-3 compared to filtered backprojection. Execution on a single Raspberry Pi is too slow for real-time imaging. However, factorized...backprojection is easily parallelized, and we include a discussion of parallel implementation across multiple Pis .

Using historical and projected future climate model simulations as drivers of agricultural and biological models (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefanova, L. B.

2013-12-01

Climate model evaluation is frequently performed as a first step in analyzing climate change simulations. Atmospheric scientists are accustomed to evaluating climate models through the assessment of model climatology and biases, the models' representation of large-scale modes of variability (such as ENSO, PDO, AMO, etc) and the relationship between these modes and local variability (e.g. the connection between ENSO and the wintertime precipitation in the Southeast US). While these provide valuable information about the fidelity of historical and projected climate model simulations from an atmospheric scientist's point of view, the application of climate model data to fields such as agriculture, ecology and biology may require additional analyses focused on the particular application's requirements and sensitivities. Typically, historical climate simulations are used to determine a mapping between the model and observed climate, either through a simple (additive for temperature or multiplicative for precipitation) or a more sophisticated (such as quantile matching) bias correction on a monthly or seasonal time scale. Plants, animals and humans however are not directly affected by monthly or seasonal means. To assess the impact of projected climate change on living organisms and related industries (e.g. agriculture, forestry, conservation, utilities, etc.), derivative measures such as the heating degree-days (HDD), cooling degree-days (CDD), growing degree-days (GDD), accumulated chill hours (ACH), wet season onset (WSO) and duration (WSD), among others, are frequently useful. We will present a comparison of the projected changes in such derivative measures calculated by applying: (a) the traditional temperature/precipitation bias correction described above versus (b) a bias correction based on the mapping between the historical model and observed derivative measures themselves. In addition, we will present and discuss examples of various application-based climate model evaluations, such as: (a) agricultural crop yield estimates and (b) species population viability estimates modeled using observed climate data vs. historical climate simulations.

Assessing recent and near-future changes in Southern California's groundwater storage from the perspective of regional climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, F.; Rother, D.

2017-12-01

Current climate change assessments project an increase in temperature throughout the western U.S. over the next century, while precipitation is projected to decrease in the Southwest. These assessments are based mainly on coarse spatial resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations, which do not include groundwater (soil and aquifer) storage projections. However, water availability is a regionally variable resource and climate change impacts on groundwater distribution will probably differ regionally across the southwestern U.S. We have implemented a coupled atmosphere-biosphere-aquifer regional modelling system (WRF/SSiB2/SIMGM) to generate recent (2005-2017) and near-future (2018-2030) high-resolution groundwater projections for Southern California. These projections are obtained by dynamic downscaling data from the Global Operation Analysis (recent) and the NCAR Community Earth System Model CMIP5 global projections (near future), which supported the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report. Near-future simulations include three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios namely, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. The model can reasonably simulate the recent changes in Southern California's groundwater as indicated by a comparison to terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment dataset. In particular, the 2011-2017 drought is simulated well with total groundwater storages declining throughout the period, especially along the western portion of the domain, which includes the high-populated areas of western Los Angeles, San Diego, Ventura and Orange counties. In general, the near-future simulations show a decline in groundwater storage for the region. The largest changes are observed with the RCP8.5 emission pathway, towards to southeastern tier of the study area. In addition to groundwater, this downscaling experiment also generates high-resolution precipitation and temperature estimates, which can help policy makers in the development of strategies to alleviate potential water resource deficiencies in California in the near future.

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation: 2. Comparison over nonuniform surface conditions

DOE PAGES

Daleu, C. L.; Plant, R. S.; Woolnough, S. J.; ...

2016-03-18

As part of an international intercomparison project, the weak temperature gradient (WTG) and damped gravity wave (DGW) methods are used to parameterize large-scale dynamics in a set of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and single column models (SCMs). The WTG or DGW method is implemented using a configuration that couples a model to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. We investigated the sensitivity of each model to changes in SST, given a fixed reference state. We performed a systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in different models, and a systematic comparison ofmore » the behavior of those models using the WTG method and the DGW method. The sensitivity to the SST depends on both the large-scale parameterization method and the choice of the cloud model. In general, SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. All CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show an increase of precipitation with SST, while SCMs show sensitivities which are not always monotonic. CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show a similar relationship between mean precipitation rate and column-relative humidity, while SCMs exhibit a much wider range of behaviors. DGW simulations produce large-scale velocity profiles which are smoother and less top-heavy compared to those produced by the WTG simulations. Lastly, these large-scale parameterization methods provide a useful tool to identify the impact of parameterization differences on model behavior in the presence of two-way feedback between convection and the large-scale circulation.« less

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large‐scale circulation: 2. Comparison over nonuniform surface conditions

PubMed Central

Plant, R. S.; Woolnough, S. J.; Sessions, S.; Herman, M. J.; Sobel, A.; Wang, S.; Kim, D.; Cheng, A.; Bellon, G.; Peyrille, P.; Ferry, F.; Siebesma, P.; van Ulft, L.

2016-01-01

Abstract As part of an international intercomparison project, the weak temperature gradient (WTG) and damped gravity wave (DGW) methods are used to parameterize large‐scale dynamics in a set of cloud‐resolving models (CRMs) and single column models (SCMs). The WTG or DGW method is implemented using a configuration that couples a model to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative‐convective equilibrium. We investigated the sensitivity of each model to changes in SST, given a fixed reference state. We performed a systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in different models, and a systematic comparison of the behavior of those models using the WTG method and the DGW method. The sensitivity to the SST depends on both the large‐scale parameterization method and the choice of the cloud model. In general, SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. All CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show an increase of precipitation with SST, while SCMs show sensitivities which are not always monotonic. CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show a similar relationship between mean precipitation rate and column‐relative humidity, while SCMs exhibit a much wider range of behaviors. DGW simulations produce large‐scale velocity profiles which are smoother and less top‐heavy compared to those produced by the WTG simulations. These large‐scale parameterization methods provide a useful tool to identify the impact of parameterization differences on model behavior in the presence of two‐way feedback between convection and the large‐scale circulation. PMID:27642501

Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography: A comparison of two fire-vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Minchao; Knorr, Wolfgang; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schurgers, Guy; Camia, Andrea; Arneth, Almut

2015-11-01

Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-European scale, and we investigate uncertainties in the relative importance of the determining factors. We simulated future burned area with LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE, a patch-dynamic global vegetation model with a semiempirical fire model, and LPJmL-SPITFIRE, a dynamic global vegetation model with a process-based fire model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models differed notably with respect to the dominating drivers and underlying processes. Fire-vegetation interactions and socioeconomic effects emerged as important uncertainties for future burned area in some European regions. Burned area of eastern Europe increased in both models, pointing at an emerging new fire-prone region that should gain further attention for future fire management.

Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aryal, Anil; Shrestha, Sangam; Babel, Mukand S.

2018-01-01

The objective of this paper is to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology in the Tamakoshi River Basin, located in the north-eastern part of Nepal. Multiple climate and hydrological models were used to simulate future climate conditions and discharge in the basin. The simulated results of future climate and river discharge were analysed for the quantification of sources of uncertainty using two-way and three-way ANOVA. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in the study area are projected to change in near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069) and far-future (2070-2099) periods. Maximum temperature is likely to rise by 1.75 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 3.52 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.10 °C under RCP 4.5 and by 3.73 °C under RCP 8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly, the precipitation in the study area is expected to change by - 2.15% under RCP 4.5 and - 2.44% under RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future discharge in the study area was projected using two hydrological models, viz. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). The SWAT model projected discharge is expected to change by small amount, whereas HEC-HMS model projected considerably lower discharge in future compared to the baseline period. The results also show that future climate variables and river hydrology contain uncertainty due to the choice of climate models, RCP scenarios, bias correction methods and hydrological models. During wet days, more uncertainty is observed due to the use of different climate models, whereas during dry days, the use of different hydrological models has a greater effect on uncertainty. Inter-comparison of the impacts of different climate models reveals that the REMO climate model shows higher uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and, consequently, in the prediction of future discharge and maximum probable flood.

Towards development of enhanced fully-Lagrangian mesh-free computational methods for fluid-structure interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khayyer, Abbas; Gotoh, Hitoshi; Falahaty, Hosein; Shimizu, Yuma

2018-02-01

Simulation of incompressible fluid flow-elastic structure interactions is targeted by using fully-Lagrangian mesh-free computational methods. A projection-based fluid model (moving particle semi-implicit (MPS)) is coupled with either a Newtonian or a Hamiltonian Lagrangian structure model (MPS or HMPS) in a mathematically-physically consistent manner. The fluid model is founded on the solution of Navier-Stokes and continuity equations. The structure models are configured either in the framework of Newtonian mechanics on the basis of conservation of linear and angular momenta, or Hamiltonian mechanics on the basis of variational principle for incompressible elastodynamics. A set of enhanced schemes are incorporated for projection-based fluid model (Enhanced MPS), thus, the developed coupled solvers for fluid structure interaction (FSI) are referred to as Enhanced MPS-MPS and Enhanced MPS-HMPS. Besides, two smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH)-based FSI solvers, being developed by the authors, are considered and their potential applicability and comparable performance are briefly discussed in comparison with MPS-based FSI solvers. The SPH-based FSI solvers are established through coupling of projection-based incompressible SPH (ISPH) fluid model and SPH-based Newtonian/Hamiltonian structure models, leading to Enhanced ISPH-SPH and Enhanced ISPH-HSPH. A comparative study is carried out on the performances of the FSI solvers through a set of benchmark tests, including hydrostatic water column on an elastic plate, high speed impact of an elastic aluminum beam, hydroelastic slamming of a marine panel and dam break with elastic gate.

Validation of Solar Sail Simulations for the NASA Solar Sail Demonstration Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braafladt, Alexander C.; Artusio-Glimpse, Alexandra B.; Heaton, Andrew F.

2014-01-01

NASA's Solar Sail Demonstration project partner L'Garde is currently assembling a flight-like sail assembly for a series of ground demonstration tests beginning in 2015. For future missions of this sail that might validate solar sail technology, it is necessary to have an accurate sail thrust model. One of the primary requirements of a proposed potential technology validation mission will be to demonstrate solar sail thrust over a set time period, which for this project is nominally 30 days. This requirement would be met by comparing a L'Garde-developed trajectory simulation to the as-flown trajectory. The current sail simulation baseline for L'Garde is a Systems Tool Kit (STK) plug-in that includes a custom-designed model of the L'Garde sail. The STK simulation has been verified for a flat plate model by comparing it to the NASA-developed Solar Sail Spaceflight Simulation Software (S5). S5 matched STK with a high degree of accuracy and the results of the validation indicate that the L'Garde STK model is accurate enough to meet the potential future mission requirements. Additionally, since the L'Garde sail deviates considerably from a flat plate, a force model for a non-flat sail provided by L'Garde sail was also tested and compared to a flat plate model in S5. This result will be used in the future as a basis of comparison to the non-flat sail model being developed for STK.

Towards Improving Sea Ice Predictabiity: Evaluating Climate Models Against Satellite Sea Ice Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.

2014-12-01

The last four decades have seen a remarkable decline in the spatial extent of the Arctic sea ice cover, presenting both challenges and opportunities to Arctic residents, government agencies and industry. After the record low extent in September 2007 effort has increased to improve seasonal, decadal-scale and longer-term predictions of the sea ice cover. Coupled global climate models (GCMs) consistently project that if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, the eventual outcome will be a complete loss of the multiyear ice cover. However, confidence in these projections depends o HoHoweon the models ability to reproduce features of the present-day climate. Comparison between models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and observations of sea ice extent and thickness show that (1) historical trends from 85% of the model ensemble members remain smaller than observed, and (2) spatial patterns of sea ice thickness are poorly represented in most models. Part of the explanation lies with a failure of models to represent details of the mean atmospheric circulation pattern that governs the transport and spatial distribution of sea ice. These results raise concerns regarding the ability of CMIP5 models to realistically represent the processes driving the decline of Arctic sea ice and to project the timing of when a seasonally ice-free Arctic may be realized. On shorter time-scales, seasonal sea ice prediction has been challenged to predict the sea ice extent from Arctic conditions a few months to a year in advance. Efforts such as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) project, originally organized through the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH) and now managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN) synthesize predictions of the September sea ice extent based on a variety of approaches, including heuristic, statistical and dynamical modeling. Analysis of SIO contributions reveals that when the September sea ice extent is near the long-term trend, contributions tend to be accurate. Years when the observed extent departs from the trend have proven harder to predict. Predictability skill does not appear to be more accurate for dynamical models over statistical ones, nor is there a measurable improvement in skill as the summer progresses.

Changing currents: a strategy for understanding and predicting the changing ocean circulation.

PubMed

Bryden, Harry L; Robinson, Carol; Griffiths, Gwyn

2012-12-13

Within the context of UK marine science, we project a strategy for ocean circulation research over the next 20 years. We recommend a focus on three types of research: (i) sustained observations of the varying and evolving ocean circulation, (ii) careful analysis and interpretation of the observed climate changes for comparison with climate model projections, and (iii) the design and execution of focused field experiments to understand ocean processes that are not resolved in coupled climate models so as to be able to embed these processes realistically in the models. Within UK-sustained observations, we emphasize smart, cost-effective design of the observational network to extract maximum information from limited field resources. We encourage the incorporation of new sensors and new energy sources within the operational environment of UK-sustained observational programmes to bridge the gap that normally separates laboratory prototype from operational instrument. For interpreting the climate-change records obtained through a variety of national and international sustained observational programmes, creative and dedicated UK scientists should lead efforts to extract the meaningful signals and patterns of climate change and to interpret them so as to project future changes. For the process studies, individual scientists will need to work together in team environments to combine observational and process modelling results into effective improvements in the coupled climate models that will lead to more accurate climate predictions.

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and Description of Models, Simulations and Climate Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamarque, J.-F.; Shindell, D. T.; Naik, V.; Plummer, D.; Josse, B.; Righi, M.; Rumbold, S. T.; Schulz, M.; Skeie, R. B.; Strode, S.;

Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haywood, A. M.; Hill, D.J.; Dolan, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Bragg, F.; Chan, W.-L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; Dowsett, H. J.; Jost, A.;

Class Model Development Using Business Rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skersys, Tomas; Gudas, Saulius

New developments in the area of computer-aided system engineering (CASE) greatly improve processes of the information systems development life cycle (ISDLC). Much effort is put into the quality improvement issues, but IS development projects still suffer from the poor quality of models during the system analysis and design cycles. At some degree, quality of models that are developed using CASE tools can be assured using various. automated. model comparison, syntax. checking procedures. It. is also reasonable to check these models against the business domain knowledge, but the domain knowledge stored in the repository of CASE tool (enterprise model) is insufficient (Gudas et al. 2004). Involvement of business domain experts into these processes is complicated because non- IT people often find it difficult to understand models that were developed by IT professionals using some specific modeling language.

The developing human connectome project: A minimal processing pipeline for neonatal cortical surface reconstruction.

PubMed

Makropoulos, Antonios; Robinson, Emma C; Schuh, Andreas; Wright, Robert; Fitzgibbon, Sean; Bozek, Jelena; Counsell, Serena J; Steinweg, Johannes; Vecchiato, Katy; Passerat-Palmbach, Jonathan; Lenz, Gregor; Mortari, Filippo; Tenev, Tencho; Duff, Eugene P; Bastiani, Matteo; Cordero-Grande, Lucilio; Hughes, Emer; Tusor, Nora; Tournier, Jacques-Donald; Hutter, Jana; Price, Anthony N; Teixeira, Rui Pedro A G; Murgasova, Maria; Victor, Suresh; Kelly, Christopher; Rutherford, Mary A; Smith, Stephen M; Edwards, A David; Hajnal, Joseph V; Jenkinson, Mark; Rueckert, Daniel

2018-06-01

The Developing Human Connectome Project (dHCP) seeks to create the first 4-dimensional connectome of early life. Understanding this connectome in detail may provide insights into normal as well as abnormal patterns of brain development. Following established best practices adopted by the WU-MINN Human Connectome Project (HCP), and pioneered by FreeSurfer, the project utilises cortical surface-based processing pipelines. In this paper, we propose a fully automated processing pipeline for the structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) of the developing neonatal brain. This proposed pipeline consists of a refined framework for cortical and sub-cortical volume segmentation, cortical surface extraction, and cortical surface inflation, which has been specifically designed to address considerable differences between adult and neonatal brains, as imaged using MRI. Using the proposed pipeline our results demonstrate that images collected from 465 subjects ranging from 28 to 45 weeks post-menstrual age (PMA) can be processed fully automatically; generating cortical surface models that are topologically correct, and correspond well with manual evaluations of tissue boundaries in 85% of cases. Results improve on state-of-the-art neonatal tissue segmentation models and significant errors were found in only 2% of cases, where these corresponded to subjects with high motion. Downstream, these surfaces will enhance comparisons of functional and diffusion MRI datasets, supporting the modelling of emerging patterns of brain connectivity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling Quantum Dynamics in Multidimensional Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liss, Kyle; Weinacht, Thomas; Pearson, Brett

2017-04-01

Coupling between different degrees-of-freedom is an inherent aspect of dynamics in multidimensional quantum systems. As experiments and theory begin to tackle larger molecular structures and environments, models that account for vibrational and/or electronic couplings are essential for interpretation. Relevant processes include intramolecular vibrational relaxation, conical intersections, and system-bath coupling. We describe a set of simulations designed to model coupling processes in multidimensional molecular systems, focusing on models that provide insight and allow visualization of the dynamics. Undergraduates carried out much of the work as part of a senior research project. In addition to the pedagogical value, the simulations allow for comparison between both explicit and implicit treatments of a system's many degrees-of-freedom.

Atmospheric studies related to aerospace activities and remote sensing technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sze, N. D.; Isaacs, R. G.; Ko, M.; Mcelroy, M. B.

1981-01-01

Parallel investigations were conducted relating to: the sensitivity of 1-D photochemical model simulated column ozone perturbations due to a projected fleet of 1000 aircraft cruising 7 hours per day at altitudes of 15-16 and 18-19 km to uncertainties in kinetic rate constant data determining modeled OH concentrations and eddy diffusivity profile parameterization and a comparison of the inherent strengths and weaknesses of Eulerian and Langrangian averaging processes in the development of multidimensional models and investigation of approaches to applying the Generalized Lagrangian Mean (GLM) formalism to zonal-mean models. The role of multiple scattering and Earth curvature in the evaluation of diurnally dependent photodissociation rates and trace species variations was examined.

Dynamical structure factor of the J1-J2 Heisenberg model in one dimension: The variational Monte Carlo approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrari, Francesco; Parola, Alberto; Sorella, Sandro; Becca, Federico

2018-06-01

The dynamical spin structure factor is computed within a variational framework to study the one-dimensional J1-J2 Heisenberg model. Starting from Gutzwiller-projected fermionic wave functions, the low-energy spectrum is constructed from two-spinon excitations. The direct comparison with Lanczos calculations on small clusters demonstrates the excellent description of both gapless and gapped (dimerized) phases, including incommensurate structures for J2/J1>0.5 . Calculations on large clusters show how the intensity evolves when increasing the frustrating ratio and give an unprecedented accurate characterization of the dynamical properties of (nonintegrable) frustrated spin models.

ODISEES: Ontology-Driven Interactive Search Environment for Earth Sciences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutherford, Matthew T.; Huffer, Elisabeth B.; Kusterer, John M.; Quam, Brandi M.

2015-01-01

This paper discusses the Ontology-driven Interactive Search Environment for Earth Sciences (ODISEES) project currently being developed to aid researchers attempting to find usable data among an overabundance of closely related data. ODISEES' ontological structure relies on a modular, adaptable concept modeling approach, which allows the domain to be modeled more or less as it is without worrying about terminology or external requirements. In the model, variables are individually assigned semantic content based on the characteristics of the measurements they represent, allowing intuitive discovery and comparison of data without requiring the user to sift through large numbers of data sets and variables to find the desired information.

NASTRAN analysis for the Airmass Sunburst model 'C' Ultralight Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verbestel, John; Smith, Howard W.

1993-01-01

The purpose of this project was to create a three dimensional NASTRAN model of the Airmass Sunburst Ultralight comparable to one made for finite element analysis. A two dimensional sample problem will be calculated by hand and by NASTRAN to make sure that NASTRAN finds similar results. A three dimensional model, similar to the one analyzed by the finite element program, will be run on NASTRAN. A comparison will be done between the NASTRAN results and the finite element program results. This study will deal mainly with the aerodynamic loads on the wing and surrounding support structure at an attack angle of 10 degrees.

[Review of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)].

PubMed

Che, Ming-Liang; Chen, Bao-Zhang; Wang, Ying; Guo, Xiang-Yun

2014-01-01

Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) is an important and efficient tool for study on the terrestrial carbon circle processes and vegetation dynamics. This paper reviewed the development history of DGVMs, introduced the basic structure of DGVMs, and the outlines of several world-widely used DGVMs, including CLM-DGVM, LPJ, IBIS and SEIB. The shortages of the description of dynamic vegetation mechanisms in the current DGVMs were proposed, including plant functional types (PFT) scheme, vegetation competition, disturbance, and phenology. Then the future research directions of DGVMs were pointed out, i. e. improving the PFT scheme, refining the vegetation dynamic mechanism, and implementing a model inter-comparison project.

Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition to the Oceans: Observation- and Model-Based Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Alex; Altieri, Katye; Okin, Greg; Dentener, Frank; Uematsu, Mitsuo; Kanakidou, Maria; Sarin, Manmohan; Duce, Robert; Galloway, Jim; Keene, Bill; Singh, Arvind; Zamora, Lauren; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Hsu, Shih-Chieh

2014-05-01

The reactive nitrogen (Nr) burden of the atmosphere has been increased by a factor of 3-4 by anthropogenic activity since the industrial revolution. This has led to large increases in the deposition of nitrate and ammonium to the surface waters of the open ocean, particularly downwind of major human population centres, such as those in North America, Europe and Southeast Asia. In oligotrophic waters, this deposition has the potential to significantly impact marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. Global-scale understanding of N deposition to the oceans is reliant on our ability to produce effective models of reactive nitrogen emission, atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition (including deposition to the land surface). The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) recently completed a multi-model analysis of global N deposition, including comparisons to wet deposition observations from three regional networks in North America, Europe and Southeast Asia (Lamarque et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7977-8018, 2013). No similar datasets exist which would allow observation - model comparisons of wet deposition for the open oceans, because long-term wet deposition records are available for only a handful of remote island sites and rain collection over the open ocean itself is very difficult. In this work we attempt instead to use ~2600 observations of aerosol nitrate and ammonium concentrations, acquired chiefly from sampling aboard ships in the period 1995 - 2012, to assess the ACCMIP N deposition fields over the remote ocean. This database is non-uniformly distributed in time and space. We selected four ocean regions (the eastern North Atlantic, the South Atlantic, the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific) where we considered the density and distribution of observational data is sufficient to provide effective comparison to the model ensemble. Two of these regions are adjacent to the land networks used in the ACCMIP comparison, while the others are far removed from land regions for which the model output has been rigorously compared to observational data. Here we will present calculated dry deposition fluxes of nitrate and ammonium from average observed concentrations in these regions, using deposition velocities of 0.9 cm/s and 0.1 cm/s respectively, and the results of a comparison of these fluxes to the ACCMIP model ensemble product. Uncertainties in the comparison and potential sources of bias between the observations and model will be discussed.

An Empirical Comparison of Competing Factor Structures for the Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status: A Project FRONTIER Study†

PubMed Central

Torrence, Nicole D.; John, Samantha E.; Gavett, Brandon E.; O'Bryant, Sid E.

2016-01-01

The original factor structure of the Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS) has received little empirical support, but at least eight alternative factor structures have been identified in the literature. The current study used confirmatory factor analysis to compare the original RBANS model with eight alternatives, which were adjusted to include a general factor. Participant data were obtained from Project FRONTIER, an epidemiological study of rural health, and comprised 341 adults (229 women, 112 men) with mean age of 61.2 years (SD = 12.1) and mean education of 12.4 years (SD = 3.3). A bifactor version of the model proposed by Duff and colleagues provided the best fit to the data (CFI = 0.98; root-mean-squared error of approximation = 0.07), but required further modification to produce appropriate factor loadings. The results support the inclusion of a general factor and provide partial replication of the Duff and colleagues RBANS model. PMID:26429558

The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, Simone; Fasullo, John; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Marsh, Daniel R.; Mills, Michael; Alterskjær, Kari; Muri, Helene; Kristjánsson, Jón E.; Boucher, Olivier; Schulz, Michael; Cole, Jason N. S.; Curry, Charles L.; Jones, Andy; Haywood, Jim; Irvine, Peter J.; Ji, Duoying; Moore, John C.; Karam, Diana B.; Kravitz, Ben; Rasch, Philip J.; Singh, Balwinder; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Robock, Alan; Yang, Shuting; Watanabe, Shingo

2013-10-01

The hydrological impact of enhancing Earth's albedo by solar radiation management is investigated using simulations from 12 Earth System models contributing to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). We contrast an idealized experiment, G1, where the global mean radiative forcing is kept at preindustrial conditions by reducing insolation while the CO2 concentration is quadrupled to a 4×CO2 experiment. The reduction of evapotranspiration over land with instantaneously increasing CO2 concentrations in both experiments largely contributes to an initial reduction in evaporation. A warming surface associated with the transient adjustment in 4×CO2 generates an increase of global precipitation by around 6.9% with large zonal and regional changes in both directions, including a precipitation increase of 10% over Asia and a reduction of 7% for the North American summer monsoon. Reduced global evaporation persists in G1 with temperatures close to preindustrial conditions. Global precipitation is reduced by around 4.5%, and significant reductions occur over monsoonal land regions: East Asia (6%), South Africa (5%), North America (7%), and South America (6%). The general precipitation performance in models is discussed in comparison to observations. In contrast to the 4×CO2 experiment, where the frequency of months with heavy precipitation intensity is increased by over 50% in comparison to the control, a reduction of up to 20% is simulated in G1. These changes in precipitation in both total amount and frequency of extremes point to a considerable weakening of the hydrological cycle in a geoengineered world.

Ares I-X Flight Evaluation Tasks in Support of Ares I Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huebner, Lawrence D.; Richards, James S.; Coates, Ralph H., III; Cruit, Wendy D.; Ramsey, Matthew N.

2010-01-01

NASA s Constellation Program successfully launched the Ares I-X Flight Test Vehicle on October 28, 2009. The Ares I-X flight was a development flight test that offered a unique opportunity for early engineering data to impact the design and development of the Ares I crew launch vehicle. As the primary customer for flight data from the Ares I-X mission, the Ares Projects Office established a set of 33 flight evaluation tasks to correlate fight results with prospective design assumptions and models. Included within these tasks were direct comparisons of flight data with pre-flight predictions and post-flight assessments utilizing models and modeling techniques being applied to design and develop Ares I. A discussion of the similarities and differences in those comparisons and the need for discipline-level model updates based upon those comparisons form the substance of this paper. The benefits of development flight testing were made evident by implementing these tasks that used Ares I-X data to partially validate tools and methodologies in technical disciplines that will ultimately influence the design and development of Ares I and future launch vehicles. The areas in which partial validation from the flight test was most significant included flight control system algorithms to predict liftoff clearance, ascent, and stage separation; structural models from rollout to separation; thermal models that have been updated based on these data; pyroshock attenuation; and the ability to predict complex flow fields during time-varying conditions including plume interactions.

Assessing Ecosystem Model Performance in Semiarid Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, A.; Dietze, M.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.

2017-12-01

In ecosystem process modelling, comparing outputs to benchmark datasets observed in the field is an important way to validate models, allowing the modelling community to track model performance over time and compare models at specific sites. Multi-model comparison projects as well as models themselves have largely been focused on temperate forests and similar biomes. Semiarid regions, on the other hand, are underrepresented in land surface and ecosystem modelling efforts, and yet will be disproportionately impacted by disturbances such as climate change due to their sensitivity to changes in the water balance. Benchmarking models at semiarid sites is an important step in assessing and improving models' suitability for predicting the impact of disturbance on semiarid ecosystems. In this study, several ecosystem models were compared at a semiarid grassland in southwestern Arizona using PEcAn, or the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer, an open-source eco-informatics toolbox ideal for creating the repeatable model workflows necessary for benchmarking. Models included SIPNET, DALEC, JULES, ED2, GDAY, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, CLM, CABLE, and FATES. Comparison between model output and benchmarks such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) tended to produce high root mean square error and low correlation coefficients, reflecting poor simulation of seasonality and the tendency for models to create much higher carbon sources than observed. These results indicate that ecosystem models do not currently adequately represent semiarid ecosystem processes.

Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project. Phase 1; The Critical Components to Simulate Cirrus Initiation Explicitly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Ruei-Fong; Starr, David OC; DeMott, Paul J.; Cotton, Richard; Sassen, Kenneth; Jensen, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project, a project of the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Studies) Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems, involves the systematic comparison of current models of ice crystal nucleation and growth for specified, typical, cirrus cloud environments. In Phase I of the project reported here, simulated cirrus cloud microphysical properties are compared for situations of "warm" (40 C) and "cold" (-60 C) cirrus, both subject to updrafts of 4, 20 and 100 centimeters per second. Five models participated. The various models employ explicit microphysical schemes wherein the size distribution of each class of particles (aerosols and ice crystals) is resolved into bins or treated separately. Simulations are made including both the homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanisms. A single initial aerosol population of sulfuric acid particles is prescribed for all simulations. To isolate the treatment of the homogeneous freezing (of haze droplets) nucleation process, the heterogeneous nucleation mechanism is disabled for a second parallel set of simulations. Qualitative agreement is found for the homogeneous-nucleation- only simulations, e.g., the number density of nucleated ice crystals increases with the strength of the prescribed updraft. However, significant quantitative differences are found. Detailed analysis reveals that the homogeneous nucleation rate, haze particle solution concentration, and water vapor uptake rate by ice crystal growth (particularly as controlled by the deposition coefficient) are critical components that lead to differences in predicted microphysics. Systematic bias exists between results based on a modified classical theory approach and models using an effective freezing temperature approach to the treatment of nucleation. Each approach is constrained by critical freezing data from laboratory studies, but each includes assumptions that can only be justified by further laboratory research. Consequently, it is not yet clear if the two approaches can be made consistent. Large haze particles may deviate considerably from equilibrium size in moderate to strong updrafts (20-100 centimeters per second) at -60 C when the commonly invoked equilibrium assumption is lifted. The resulting difference in particle-size- dependent solution concentration of haze particles may significantly affect the ice particle formation rate during the initial nucleation interval. The uptake rate for water vapor excess by ice crystals is another key component regulating the total number of nucleated ice crystals. This rate, the product of particle number concentration and ice crystal diffusional growth rate, which is particularly sensitive to the deposition coefficient when ice particles are small, modulates the peak particle formation rate achieved in an air parcel and the duration of the active nucleation time period. The effects of heterogeneous nucleation are most pronounced in weak updraft situations. Vapor competition by the heterogeneously nucleated ice crystals may limit the achieved ice supersaturation and thus suppresses the contribution of homogeneous nucleation. Correspondingly, ice crystal number density is markedly reduced. Definitive laboratory and atmospheric benchmark data are needed for the heterogeneous nucleation process. Inter-model differences are correspondingly greater than in the case of the homogeneous nucleation process acting alone.

Selection of priority investment projects for the development of the Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novoselov, A.; Potravny, I.; Novoselova, I.; Gassiy, V.

2017-12-01

In the Russian Arctic, there is currently an active process of preparation and implementation of investment projects aiming to extract natural resources, with the aim of sustainable socioeconomic development of the region. These projects are associated with the development of key zones in the Arctic and involve the exploration for and production of minerals (diamonds, gold, rare-earth metals, oil, and gas) and the development of energy and infrastructure (e.g., the Northern Sea Route). Such projects, which are often carried out in territories of traditional nature management belonging to the indigenous peoples of the North, must consider their environmental and social responsibility and the preservation of the ethnic identity and culture of indigenous peoples. The extraction of mineral deposits in the Arctic and the Far North places new demands on subsoil users, related to the preservation and development of the socio-cultural environment of the indigenous peoples of the North and to the ecological rehabilitation of the area. This article presents economic and mathematical models for selecting the optimal development project options based on the pairwise comparison of investment projects and the evaluation of indigenous peoples' preferences. We investigated the investment projects' impact on traditional territories in the Arctic, including the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), in terms of socioeconomic and ethnological development, and environmental change. The suggested system of models can be used to assess the priority of projects supporting and developing the region in the mining corporation's area of responsibility. The proposed models are based on fuzzy set theory, which provides an effective assessment of the population's preferences for projects. Data are processed using the hierarchy analysis method and multivariate optimization calculations to determine the project sets at different funding levels. The creation of information-linked processing models is innovative. Indigenous people's expert assessments of the priority of projects are processed using the hierarchy analysis method to determine the coefficients of the optimization model that enables the calculation of the choice between the analyzed projects, given the allocated financial resources. This approach can be used to address issues of support for indigenous people in areas where mining and other economic development activities are taking place, especially in the Arctic region. The proposed decision-making mechanism, which includes public hearings, sociological surveys, ethnological expertise, and compensation payments to indigenous minorities of the North, facilitates the justification of optimal strategies for maintaining and developing the region, taking into account economic, ecological, social, and ethnological factors.

The seven sisters DANCe. III. Projected spatial distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivares, J.; Moraux, E.; Sarro, L. M.; Bouy, H.; Berihuete, A.; Barrado, D.; Huelamo, N.; Bertin, E.; Bouvier, J.

2018-04-01

Context. Membership analyses of the DANCe and Tycho + DANCe data sets provide the largest and least contaminated sample of Pleiades candidate members to date. Aims: We aim at reassessing the different proposals for the number surface density of the Pleiades in the light of the new and most complete list of candidate members, and inferring the parameters of the most adequate model. Methods: We compute the Bayesian evidence and Bayes Factors for variations of the classical radial models. These include elliptical symmetry, and luminosity segregation. As a by-product of the model comparison, we obtain posterior distributions for each set of model parameters. Results: We find that the model comparison results depend on the spatial extent of the region used for the analysis. For a circle of 11.5 parsecs around the cluster centre (the most homogeneous and complete region), we find no compelling reason to abandon King's model, although the Generalised King model introduced here has slightly better fitting properties. Furthermore, we find strong evidence against radially symmetric models when compared to the elliptic extensions. Finally, we find that including mass segregation in the form of luminosity segregation in the J band is strongly supported in all our models. Conclusions: We have put the question of the projected spatial distribution of the Pleiades cluster on a solid probabilistic framework, and inferred its properties using the most exhaustive and least contaminated list of Pleiades candidate members available to date. Our results suggest however that this sample may still lack about 20% of the expected number of cluster members. Therefore, this study should be revised when the completeness and homogeneity of the data can be extended beyond the 11.5 parsecs limit. Such a study will allow for more precise determination of the Pleiades spatial distribution, its tidal radius, ellipticity, number of objects and total mass.

Impact of climate change on precipitation distribution and water availability in the Nile using CMIP5 GCM ensemble.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Z. T.; Gebremichael, M.

2017-12-01

ABSTRACT In a basin like the Nile where millions of people depend on rainfed agriculture and surface water resources for their livelihoods, changes in precipitation will have tremendous social and economic consequences. General circulation models (GCMs) have been associated with high uncertainty in their projection of future precipitation for the Nile basin. Some studies tried to compare performance of different GCMs by doing a Multi-Model comparison for the region. Many indicated that there is no single model that gives the "best estimate" of precipitation for a very complex and large basin like the Nile. In this study, we used a combination of satellite and long term rain gauge precipitation measurements (TRMM and CenTrends) to evaluate the performance of 10 GCMs from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) at different spatial and seasonal scales and produce a weighted ensemble projection. Our results confirm that there is no single model that gives best estimate over the region, hence the approach of creating an ensemble depending on how the model performed in specific areas and seasons resulted in an improved estimate of precipitation compared with observed values. Following the same approach, we created an ensemble of future precipitation projections for four different time periods (2000-2024, 2025-2049 and 2050-2100). The analysis showed that all the major sub-basins of the Nile will get will get more precipitation with time, even though the distribution with in the sub basin might be different. Overall the analysis showed a 15 % increase (125 mm/year) by the end of the century averaged over the area up to the Aswan dam. KEY WORDS: Climate Change, CMIP5, Nile, East Africa, CenTrends, Precipitation, Weighted Ensembles

Comparison of CREME (cosmic-ray effects on microelectronics) model LET (linear energy transfer) spaceflight dosimetry data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Letaw, J.R.; Adams, J.H.

The galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) component of space radiation is the dominant cause of single-event phenomena in microelectronic circuits when Earth's magnetic shielding is low. Spaceflights outside the magnetosphere and in high inclination orbits are examples of such circumstances. In high-inclination orbits, low-energy (high LET) particles are transmitted through the field only at extreme latitudes, but can dominate the orbit-averaged dose. GCR is an important part of the radiation dose to astronauts under the same conditions. As a test of the CREME environmental model and particle transport codes used to estimate single event upsets, we have compiled existing measurements ofmore » HZE doses were compiled where GCR is expected to be important: Apollo 16 and 17, Skylab, Apollo Soyuz Test Project, and Kosmos 782. The LET spectra, due to direct ionization from GCR, for each of these missions has been estimated. The resulting comparisons with data validate the CREME model predictions of high-LET galactic cosmic-ray fluxes to within a factor of two. Some systematic differences between the model and data are identified.« less

Comparison of risk estimates using life-table methods.

PubMed

Sullivan, R E; Weng, P S

1987-08-01

Risk estimates promulgated by various radiation protection authorities in recent years have become increasingly more complex. Early "integral" estimates in the form of health effects per 0.01 person-Gy (per person-rad) or per 10(4) person-Gy (per 10(6) person-rad) have tended to be replaced by "differential" estimates which are age- and sex-dependent and specify both minimum induction (latency) and duration of risk expression (plateau) periods. These latter types of risk estimate must be used in conjunction with a life table in order to reduce them to integral form. In this paper, the life table has been used to effect a comparison of the organ and tissue risk estimates derived in several recent reports. In addition, a brief review of life-table methodology is presented and some features of the models used in deriving differential coefficients are discussed. While the great number of permutations possible with dose-response models, detailed risk estimates and proposed projection models precludes any unique result, the reduced integral coefficients are required to conform to the linear, absolute-risk model recommended for use with the integral risk estimates reviewed.

Comparison of Global Cloud Fraction and TOA Radiation Budgets between the NASA GISS AR5 GCM Simulations and CERES-MODIS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanfield, R. E.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.; Del Genio, A. D.; Minnis, P.; Doelling, D.; Loeb, N. G.

2011-12-01

To better advise policymakers, it is necessary for climate models to provide credible predictions of future climates. Meeting this goal requires climate models to successfully simulate the present and past climates. The past, current and future Earth climate has been simulated by the NASA GISS ModelE climate model and has been summarized by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR4, 2007). New simulations from the updated AR5 version of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM have been released to the public community and will be included in the IPCC AR5 ensemble of simulations. Due to the recent nature of these simulations, however, they have yet to be extensively validated against observations. To evaluate the GISS AR5 simulated global clouds and TOA radiation budgets, we have collected and processed the NASA CERES and MODIS observations during the period 2000-2005. In detail, the 1ox1o resolution monthly averaged SYN1 product has been used with combined observations from both Terra and Aqua satellites, and degraded to a 2ox2.5o grid box to match the GCM spatial resolution. These observations are temporally interpolated and fit to data from geostationary satellites to provide time continuity. The GISS AR5 products were downloaded from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) for the IPCC-AR5. Preliminary comparisons between GISS AR5 simulations and CERES-MODIS observations have shown that although their annual and seasonal mean CFs agree within a few percent, there are significant differences in several climatic regions. For example, the modeled CFs have positive biases in the Arctic, Antarctic, Tropics, and Sahara Desert, but negative biases over the southern middle latitudes (30-65 oS). The OLR, albedo and NET radiation comparisons are similar to the CF comparison.

Comparison Of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Datasets For Projecting Changes In Extreme Precipitation In The San Francisco Bay Area.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milesi, Cristina; Costa-Cabral, Mariza; Rath, John; Mills, William; Roy, Sujoy; Thrasher, Bridget; Wang, Weile; Chiang, Felicia; Loewenstein, Max; Podolske, James

2014-01-01

Water resource managers planning for the adaptation to future events of extreme precipitation now have access to high resolution downscaled daily projections derived from statistical bias correction and constructed analogs. We also show that along the Pacific Coast the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) is a reliable predictor of storm likelihood, and therefore a predictor of seasonal precipitation totals and likelihood of extremely intense precipitation. Such time series can be used to project intensity duration curves into the future or input into stormwater models. However, few climate projection studies have explored the impact of the type of downscaling method used on the range and uncertainty of predictions for local flood protection studies. Here we present a study of the future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, located in South Bay Area, by comparing the range of predictions in extreme precipitation events calculated from three sets of time series downscaled from CMIP5 data: 1) the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs method dataset downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid (12km); 2) the Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation method downscaled to a 1km grid; 3) a statistical model of extreme daily precipitation events and projected NOI from CMIP5 models. In addition, predicted years of extreme precipitation are used to estimate the risk of overtopping of the retention pond located on the site through simulations of the EPA SWMM hydrologic model. Preliminary results indicate that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase and flood the NASA Ames retention pond. The results from these estimations will assist flood protection managers in planning for infrastructure adaptations.

High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States

DOE PAGES

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui; ...

2016-09-01

We present high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes over the contiguous U.S. using a regional climate model (RegCM4) that dynamically downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project at 18km horizontal grid spacing. All model integrations span 41 years in the historical period (1965 – 2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010 – 2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and cover a domain that includes the contiguous U.S. and parts of Canada and Mexico. Should emissions continue to rise, surface temperatures in every region within the U.S. will reach amore » new climate norm well before mid 21st century regardless of the magnitudes of regional warming. Significant warming will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. The future temperature response will be partly regulated by changes in snow hydrology over the regions that historically receive a major portion of cold season precipitation in the form of snow. Our results indicate the existence of the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling at regional scales where per degree centigrade rise in surface temperature will lead to a 7.4% increase in precipitation from extremes. More importantly, both winter (snow) and summer (liquid) extremes are projected to increase across the U.S. These changes in precipitation characteristics will be driven by a shift towards shorter and wetter seasons. Altogether, projected changes in the regional hydro-climate can have substantial impacts on the natural and human systems across the U.S.« less

Present, Future, and Novel Bioclimates of the San Francisco, California Region

PubMed Central

Torregrosa, Alicia; Taylor, Maxwell D.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2013-01-01

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20th century climatology (1971–2000) and end of the 21st century climatology (2070–2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution −270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km2 study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km2. The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space. PMID:23526985

Particulate Matter and Ozone Prediction and Source Attribution for U.S. Air Quality Management in a Changing World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanyal, S.; Wuebbles, D. J.

2017-12-01

In this study, the focus is on how global changes in climate and emissions will affect the U.S. air quality, especially on fine particulate matter and ozone, projecting their future trends and quantifying key source attribution. We are conducting three primary experiments : (1) historical simulations for period 1994-2013 to establish the credibility of the system and refine process-level understanding of U.S. regional air quality; (2) projections for period 2041-2060 to quantify individual and combined impacts of global climate and emissions changes under multiple scenarios; (3) sensitivity analyses to determine future changes in pollution sources and their relative contributions from anthropogenic and natural emissions, long-range pollutant transport, and climate change effects. Here we will present the result from the first experiment with the global model CESM1.2 (with fully coupled chemistry using CAM-chem5) driven by NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data at 0.9o x 1.25o resolution. We will present the comparison between the results from model simulation with observation data from EPA database. Since there is always a challenge in comparing gridded prediction from model data with point data from the observation databases, because the model simulations calculate the average outcome over a grid for a given set of conditions while the stochastic component (e.g. sub-grid variations) embedded in the observations are not accounted for, we are using extensive statistical measure to do the comparison. We will also determine relative contributions from multiscale (local, regional, global) processes, major source regions (Mexico, Canada, Asia, Africa) and types (natural, anthropogenic) and associated uncertainties (climate decadal oscillations/interannual variations, emissions and model structure errors).

Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torregrosa, Alicia; Taylor, Maxwell D.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2013-01-01

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20th century climatology (1971–2000) and end of the 21st century climatology (2070–2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution −270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km2 study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km2. The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space.

Automated Visual Cognitive Tasks for Recording Neural Activity Using a Floor Projection Maze

PubMed Central

Kent, Brendon W.; Yang, Fang-Chi; Burwell, Rebecca D.

2014-01-01

Neuropsychological tasks used in primates to investigate mechanisms of learning and memory are typically visually guided cognitive tasks. We have developed visual cognitive tasks for rats using the Floor Projection Maze1,2 that are optimized for visual abilities of rats permitting stronger comparisons of experimental findings with other species. In order to investigate neural correlates of learning and memory, we have integrated electrophysiological recordings into fully automated cognitive tasks on the Floor Projection Maze1,2. Behavioral software interfaced with an animal tracking system allows monitoring of the animal's behavior with precise control of image presentation and reward contingencies for better trained animals. Integration with an in vivo electrophysiological recording system enables examination of behavioral correlates of neural activity at selected epochs of a given cognitive task. We describe protocols for a model system that combines automated visual presentation of information to rodents and intracranial reward with electrophysiological approaches. Our model system offers a sophisticated set of tools as a framework for other cognitive tasks to better isolate and identify specific mechanisms contributing to particular cognitive processes. PMID:24638057

Designing an activity-based costing model for a non-admitted prisoner healthcare setting.

PubMed

Cai, Xiao; Moore, Elizabeth; McNamara, Martin

2013-09-01

To design and deliver an activity-based costing model within a non-admitted prisoner healthcare setting. Key phases from the NSW Health clinical redesign methodology were utilised: diagnostic, solution design and implementation. The diagnostic phase utilised a range of strategies to identify issues requiring attention in the development of the costing model. The solution design phase conceptualised distinct 'building blocks' of activity and cost based on the speciality of clinicians providing care. These building blocks enabled the classification of activity and comparisons of costs between similar facilities. The implementation phase validated the model. The project generated an activity-based costing model based on actual activity performed, gained acceptability among clinicians and managers, and provided the basis for ongoing efficiency and benchmarking efforts.

Project on Elite Athlete Commitment (PEAK): III. An examination of the external validity across gender, and the expansion and clarification of the Sport Commitment Model.

PubMed

Scanlan, Tara K; Russell, David G; Magyar, T Michelle; Scanlan, Larry A

2009-12-01

The Sport Commitment Model was further tested using the Scanlan Collaborative Interview Method to examine its generalizability to New Zealand's elite female amateur netball team, the Silver Ferns. Results supported or clarified Sport Commitment Model predictions, revealed avenues for model expansion, and elucidated the functions of perceived competence and enjoyment in the commitment process. A comparison and contrast of the in-depth interview data from the Silver Ferns with previous interview data from a comparable elite team of amateur male athletes allowed assessment of model external validity, tested the generalizability of the underlying mechanisms, and separated gender differences from discrepancies that simply reflected team or idiosyncratic differences.

HSR Model Deformation Measurements from Subsonic to Supersonic Speeds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burner, A. W.; Erickson, G. E.; Goodman, W. L.; Fleming, G. A.

1999-01-01

This paper describes the video model deformation technique (VMD) used at five NASA facilities and the projection moire interferometry (PMI) technique used at two NASA facilities. Comparisons between the two techniques for model deformation measurements are provided. Facilities at NASA-Ames and NASA-Langley where deformation measurements have been made are presented. Examples of HSR model deformation measurements from the Langley Unitary Wind Tunnel, Langley 16-foot Transonic Wind Tunnel, and the Ames 12-foot Pressure Tunnel are presented. A study to improve and develop new targeting schemes at the National Transonic Facility is also described. The consideration of milled targets for future HSR models is recommended when deformation measurements are expected to be required. Finally, future development work for VMD and PMI is addressed.

Dust transport model validation using satellite- and ground-based methods in the southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahler, Anna-Britt; Thome, Kurt; Yin, Dazhong; Sprigg, William A.

2006-08-01

Dust is known to aggravate respiratory diseases. This is an issue in the desert southwestern United States, where windblown dust events are common. The Public Health Applications in Remote Sensing (PHAiRS) project aims to address this problem by using remote-sensing products to assist in public health decision support. As part of PHAiRS, a model for simulating desert dust cycles, the Dust Regional Atmospheric Modeling (DREAM) system is employed to forecast dust events in the southwestern US. Thus far, DREAM has been validated in the southwestern US only in the lower part of the atmosphere by comparison with measurement and analysis products from surface synoptic, surface Meteorological Aerodrome Report (METAR), and upper-air radiosonde. This study examines the validity of the DREAM algorithm dust load prediction in the desert southwestern United States by comparison with satellite-based MODIS level 2 and MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products, and ground-based observations from the AERONET network of sunphotometers. Results indicate that there are difficulties obtaining MODIS L2 aerosol optical thickness (AOT) data in the desert southwest due to low AOT algorithm performance over areas with high surface reflectances. MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products show improvement, but the temporal and vertical resolution of MODIS data limit its utility for DREAM evaluation. AERONET AOT data show low correlation to DREAM dust load predictions. The potential contribution of space- or ground-based lidar to the PHAiRS project is also examined.

Calculation comparison of an additive and subtractive light modulator for high-resolution pixellight headlamps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Held, Marcel Philipp; Ley, Peer-Phillip; Lachmayer, Roland

2018-02-01

High-resolution vehicle headlamps represent a future-oriented technology that increases traffic safety and driving comfort in the dark. A further development to current matrix beam headlamps are LED-based pixellight systems which enable additional lighting functions (e.g. the projection of navigation information on the road) to be activated for given driving scenarios. The image generation is based on spatial light modulators (SLM) such as digital micromirror devices (DMD), liquid crystal displays (LCD), liquid crystal on silicon (LCoS) devices or LED arrays. For DMD-, LCD- and LCoSbased headlamps, the optical system uses illumining optics to ensure a precise illumination of the corresponding SLM. LED arrays, however, have to use imaging optics to project the LED die onto an intermediate image plane and thus create the light distribution via an apposition of gapless juxtapositional LED die images. Nevertheless, the lambertian radiation characteristics complex the design of imaging optics regarding a highefficiency setup with maximum resolution and luminous flux. Simplifying the light source model and its emitting characteristics allows to determine a balanced setup between these parameters by using the Etendue and to ´ calculate the maximum possible efficacy and luminous flux for each technology in an early designing stage. Therefore, we present a calculation comparison of how simplifying the light source model can affect the Etendue ´ conservation and the setup design for two high-resolution technologies. The shown approach is evaluated and compared to simulation models to show the occurring deviation and its applicability.

Comparison of models for predicting the changes in phytoplankton community composition in the receiving water system of an inter-basin water transfer project.

PubMed

Zeng, Qinghui; Liu, Yi; Zhao, Hongtao; Sun, Mingdong; Li, Xuyong

2017-04-01

Inter-basin water transfer projects might cause complex hydro-chemical and biological variation in the receiving aquatic ecosystems. Whether machine learning models can be used to predict changes in phytoplankton community composition caused by water transfer projects have rarely been studied. In the present study, we used machine learning models to predict the total algal cell densities and changes in phytoplankton community composition in Miyun reservoir caused by the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP). The model performances of four machine learning models, including regression trees (RT), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN) were evaluated and the best model was selected for further prediction. The results showed that the predictive accuracies (Pearson's correlation coefficient) of the models were RF (0.974), ANN (0.951), SVM (0.860), and RT (0.817) in the training step and RF (0.806), ANN (0.734), SVM (0.730), and RT (0.692) in the testing step. Therefore, the RF model was the best method for estimating total algal cell densities. Furthermore, the predicted accuracies of the RF model for dominant phytoplankton phyla (Cyanophyta, Chlorophyta, and Bacillariophyta) in Miyun reservoir ranged from 0.824 to 0.869 in the testing step. The predicted proportions with water transfer of the different phytoplankton phyla ranged from -8.88% to 9.93%, and the predicted dominant phyla with water transfer in each season remained unchanged compared to the phytoplankton succession without water transfer. The results of the present study provide a useful tool for predicting the changes in phytoplankton community caused by water transfer. The method is transferrable to other locations via establishment of models with relevant data to a particular area. Our findings help better understanding the possible changes in aquatic ecosystems influenced by inter-basin water transfer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The UK Earth System Models Marine Biogeochemical Evaluation Toolkit, BGC-val

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Mora, Lee

2017-04-01

The Biogeochemical Validation toolkit, BGC-val, is a model and grid independent python-based marine model evaluation framework that automates much of the validation of the marine component of an Earth System Model. BGC-val was initially developed to be a flexible and extensible system to evaluate the spin up of the marine UK Earth System Model (UKESM). However, the grid-independence and flexibility means that it is straightforward to adapt the BGC-val framework to evaluate other marine models. In addition to the marine component of the UKESM, this toolkit has been adapted to compare multiple models, including models from the CMIP5 and iMarNet inter-comparison projects. The BGC-val toolkit produces multiple levels of analysis which are presented in a simple to use interactive html5 document. Level 1 contains time series analyses, showing the development over time of many important biogeochemical and physical ocean metrics, such as the Global primary production or the Drake passage current. The second level of BGC-val is an in-depth spatial analyses of a single point in time. This is a series of point to point comparison of model and data in various regions, such as a comparison of Surface Nitrate in the model vs data from the world ocean atlas. The third level analyses are specialised ad-hoc packages to go in-depth on a specific question, such as the development of Oxygen minimum zones in the Equatorial Pacific. In additional to the three levels, the html5 document opens with a Level 0 table showing a summary of the status of the model run. The beta version of this toolkit is available via the Plymouth Marine Laboratory Gitlab server and uses the BSD 3 clause license.

Further Refinement of the LEWICE SLD Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, William B.

2006-01-01

A research project is underway at NASA Glenn Research Center to produce computer software that can accurately predict ice growth for any meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. This report will present results from version 3.2 of this software, which is called LEWICE. This version differs from previous releases in that it incorporates additional thermal analysis capabilities, a pneumatic boot model, interfaces to external computational fluid dynamics (CFD) flow solvers and has an empirical model for the supercooled large droplet (SLD) regime. An extensive comparison against the database of ice shapes and collection efficiencies that have been generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) has also been performed. The complete set of data used for this comparison will eventually be available in a contractor report. This paper will show the differences in collection efficiency and ice shape between LEWICE 3.2 and experimental data. This report will first describe the LEWICE 3.2 SLD model. A semi-empirical approach was used to incorporate first order physical effects of large droplet phenomena into icing software. Comparisons are then made to every two-dimensional case in the water collection database and the ice shape database. Each collection efficiency condition was run using the following four assumptions: 1) potential flow, no splashing; 2) potential flow, with splashing; 3) Navior-Stokes, no splashing; 4) Navi r-Stokes, with splashing. All cases were run with 21 bin drop size distributions and a lift correction (angle of attack adjustment). Quantitative comparisons are shown for impingement limit, maximum water catch, and total collection efficiency. Due to the large number of ice shape cases, comprehensive comparisons were limited to potential flow cases with and without splashing. Quantitative comparisons are shown for horn height, horn angle, icing limit, area, and leading edge thickness. The results show that the predicted results for both ice shape and water collection are within the accuracy limits of the experimental data for the majority of cases.

Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Ying; Wang, Guiling; Gao, Xuejie

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days' total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes).

Energy and direction distribution of neutrons in workplace fields: implication of the results from the EVIDOS project for the set-up of simulated workplace fields.

PubMed

Luszik-Bhadra, M; Lacoste, V; Reginatto, M; Zimbal, A

2007-01-01

Workplace neutron spectra from nuclear facilities obtained within the European project EVIDOS are compared with those of the simulated workplace fields CANEL and SIGMA and fields set-up with radionuclide sources at the PTB. Contributions of neutrons to ambient dose equivalent and personal dose equivalent are given in three energy intervals (for thermal, intermediate and fast neutrons) together with the corresponding direction distribution, characterised by three different types of distributions (isotropic, weakly directed and directed). The comparison shows that none of the simulated workplace fields investigated here can model all the characteristics of the fields observed at power reactors.

Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

DOE PAGES

McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; ...

2015-06-10

The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. Our present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effectsmore » of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. Moreover, the increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.« less

Wind tunnel validation of AeroDyn within LIFES50+ project: imposed Surge and Pitch tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayati, I.; Belloli, M.; Bernini, L.; Zasso, A.

2016-09-01

This paper presents the first set of results of the steady and unsteady wind tunnel tests, performed at Politecnico di Milano wind tunnel, on a 1/75 rigid scale model of the DTU 10 MW wind turbine, within the LIFES50+ project. The aim of these tests is the validation of the open source code AeroDyn developed at NREL. Numerical and experimental steady results are compared in terms of thrust and torque coefficients, showing good agreement, as well as for unsteady measurements gathered with a 2 degree-of-freedom test rig, capable of imposing the displacements at the base of the model, and providing the surge and pitch motion of the floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) scale model. The measurements of the unsteady test configuration are compared with AeroDyn/Dynin module results, implementing the generalized dynamic wake (GDW) model. Numerical and experimental comparison showed similar behaviours in terms of non linear hysteresis, however some discrepancies are herein reported and need further data analysis and interpretations about the aerodynamic integral quantities, with a special attention to the physics of the unsteady phenomenon.

The ARGO Project: Global Ocean Observations for Understanding and Prediction of Climate Variability. Report for Calendar Year 2004

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-01-01

international Argo practices. Data appropriate for research applications and for comparison with climate change models are not available for several...global ocean heat and fresh water storage and the detection and attribution of climate change . These presentations can be accessed at http...stresses on ocean ecosystems have serious consequences, and sometimes dramatic ones, such as coral reef bleaching . In the future, the impacts of a

Use of ICT and its Relationship with Performance in Examinations: A Comparison of the ImpaCT2 Project's Research Findings Using Pupil-Level, School-Level and Multilevel Modelling Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrison, Colin; Lunzer, Eric A.; Tymms, Peter; Fitz-Gibbon, Carol Taylor; Restorick, Jane

2004-01-01

This paper reports a previously unpublished comparative analysis of data from the ImpaCT2 study investigating the relationship between students' performance in England on national tests and their reported use of information technology (particularly networked technology) for school work, at three age levels (11, 14 and 16), in English, Maths and…

Experiments assigned to determine the acceleration of 8000kN shear laboratory model elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budiul Berghian, A.; Vasiu, T.; Abrudean, C.

2017-01-01

In this paper presents an experimental kinetics study by measuring accelerations using a bi-axial accelerometer constructed in the basis of a miniature integrated circuit, included in the class of micro-electrical and mechanical systems - MMA6261Q on the experimental installation reduced to the 1:5 dividing rule by comparison with the shear existent in exploitation, conceived and projected at the Faculty of Engineering in Hunedoara.

“Using Statistical Comparisons between SPartICus Cirrus Microphysical Measurements, Detailed Cloud Models, and GCM Cloud Parameterizations to Understand Physical Processes Controlling Cirrus Properties and to Improve the Cloud Parameterizations”

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woods, Sarah

2015-12-01

The dual objectives of this project were improving our basic understanding of processes that control cirrus microphysical properties and improvement of the representation of these processes in the parameterizations. A major effort in the proposed research was to integrate, calibrate, and better understand the uncertainties in all of these measurements.

Single scan parameterization of space-variant point spread functions in image space via a printed array: the impact for two PET/CT scanners.

PubMed

Kotasidis, F A; Matthews, J C; Angelis, G I; Noonan, P J; Jackson, A; Price, P; Lionheart, W R; Reader, A J

2011-05-21

Incorporation of a resolution model during statistical image reconstruction often produces images of improved resolution and signal-to-noise ratio. A novel and practical methodology to rapidly and accurately determine the overall emission and detection blurring component of the system matrix using a printed point source array within a custom-made Perspex phantom is presented. The array was scanned at different positions and orientations within the field of view (FOV) to examine the feasibility of extrapolating the measured point source blurring to other locations in the FOV and the robustness of measurements from a single point source array scan. We measured the spatially-variant image-based blurring on two PET/CT scanners, the B-Hi-Rez and the TruePoint TrueV. These measured spatially-variant kernels and the spatially-invariant kernel at the FOV centre were then incorporated within an ordinary Poisson ordered subset expectation maximization (OP-OSEM) algorithm and compared to the manufacturer's implementation using projection space resolution modelling (RM). Comparisons were based on a point source array, the NEMA IEC image quality phantom, the Cologne resolution phantom and two clinical studies (carbon-11 labelled anti-sense oligonucleotide [(11)C]-ASO and fluorine-18 labelled fluoro-l-thymidine [(18)F]-FLT). Robust and accurate measurements of spatially-variant image blurring were successfully obtained from a single scan. Spatially-variant resolution modelling resulted in notable resolution improvements away from the centre of the FOV. Comparison between spatially-variant image-space methods and the projection-space approach (the first such report, using a range of studies) demonstrated very similar performance with our image-based implementation producing slightly better contrast recovery (CR) for the same level of image roughness (IR). These results demonstrate that image-based resolution modelling within reconstruction is a valid alternative to projection-based modelling, and that, when using the proposed practical methodology, the necessary resolution measurements can be obtained from a single scan. This approach avoids the relatively time-consuming and involved procedures previously proposed in the literature.

The Deep South Clouds & Aerosols project: Improving the modelling of clouds in the Southern Ocean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgenstern, Olaf; McDonald, Adrian; Harvey, Mike; Davies, Roger; Katurji, Marwan; Varma, Vidya; Williams, Jonny

2016-04-01

Southern-Hemisphere climate projections are subject to persistent climate model biases affecting the large majority of contemporary climate models, which degrade the reliability of these projections, particularly at the regional scale. Southern-Hemisphere specific problems include the fact that satellite-based observations comparisons with model output indicate that cloud occurrence above the Southern Ocean is substantially underestimated, with consequences for the radiation balance, sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and the position of storm tracks. The Southern-Ocean and Antarctic region is generally characterized by an acute paucity of surface-based and airborne observations, further complicating the situation. In recognition of this and other Southern-Hemisphere specific problems with climate modelling, the New Zealand Government has launched the Deep South National Science Challenge, whose purpose is to develop a new Earth System Model which reduces these very large radiative forcing problems associated with erroneous clouds. The plan is to conduct a campaign of targeted observations in the Southern Ocean region, leveraging off international measurement campaigns in this area, and using these and existing measurements of cloud and aerosol properties to improve the representation of clouds in the nascent New Zealand Earth System Model. Observations and model development will target aerosol physics and chemistry, particularly sulphate, sea salt, and non-sulphate organic aerosol, its interactions with clouds, and cloud microphysics. The hypothesis is that the cloud schemes in most GCMs are trained on Northern-Hemisphere data characterized by substantial anthropogenic or terrestrial aerosol-related influences which are almost completely absent in the Deep South.

[Comparison between administrative and clinical databases in the evaluation of cardiac surgery performance].

PubMed

Rosato, Stefano; D'Errigo, Paola; Badoni, Gabriella; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo A; Seccareccia, Fulvia

2008-08-01

The availability of two contemporary sources of information about coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) interventions, allowed 1) to verify the feasibility of performing outcome evaluation studies using administrative data sources, and 2) to compare hospital performance obtainable using the CABG Project clinical database with hospital performance derived from the use of current administrative data. Interventions recorded in the CABG Project were linked to the hospital discharge record (HDR) administrative database. Only the linked records were considered for subsequent analyses (46% of the total CABG Project). A new selected population "clinical card-HDR" was then defined. Two independent risk-adjustment models were applied, each of them using information derived from one of the two different sources. Then, HDR information was supplemented with some patient preoperative conditions from the CABG clinical database. The two models were compared in terms of their adaptability to data. Hospital performances identified by the two different models and significantly different from the mean was compared. In only 4 of the 13 hospitals considered for analysis, the results obtained using the HDR model did not completely overlap with those obtained by the CABG model. When comparing statistical parameters of the HDR model and the HDR model + patient preoperative conditions, the latter showed the best adaptability to data. In this "clinical card-HDR" population, hospital performance assessment obtained using information from the clinical database is similar to that derived from the use of current administrative data. However, when risk-adjustment models built on administrative databases are supplemented with a few clinical variables, their statistical parameters improve and hospital performance assessment becomes more accurate.

Representing life in the Earth system with soil microbial functional traits in the MIMICS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieder, W. R.; Grandy, A. S.; Kallenbach, C. M.; Taylor, P. G.; Bonan, G. B.

2015-02-01

Projecting biogeochemical responses to global environmental change requires multi-scaled perspectives that consider organismal diversity, ecosystem processes and global fluxes. However, microbes, the drivers of soil organic matter decomposition and stabilization, remain notably absent from models used to project carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. We used a microbial trait-based soil carbon (C) model, with two physiologically distinct microbial communities to improve current estimates of soil C storage and their likely response to perturbations. Drawing from the application of functional traits used to model other ecosystems, we incorporate copiotrophic and oligotrophic microbial functional groups in the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) model, which incorporates oligotrophic and copiotrophic functional groups, akin to "gleaner" vs. "opportunist" plankton in the ocean, or r vs. K strategists in plant and animals communities. Here we compare MIMICS to a conventional soil C model, DAYCENT, in cross-site comparisons of nitrogen (N) enrichment effects on soil C dynamics. MIMICS more accurately simulates C responses to N enrichment; moreover, it raises important hypotheses involving the roles of substrate availability, community-level enzyme induction, and microbial physiological responses in explaining various soil biogeochemical responses to N enrichment. In global-scale analyses, we show that current projections from Earth system models likely overestimate the strength of the land C sink in response to increasing C inputs with elevated carbon dioxide (CO2). Our findings illustrate that tradeoffs between theory and utility can be overcome to develop soil biogeochemistry models that evaluate and advance our theoretical understanding of microbial dynamics and soil biogeochemical responses to environmental change.

Apache Open Climate Workbench: Building Open Source Climate Science Tools and Community at the Apache Software Foundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joyce, M.; Ramirez, P.; Boustani, M.; Mattmann, C. A.; Khudikyan, S.; McGibbney, L. J.; Whitehall, K. D.

2014-12-01

Apache Open Climate Workbench (OCW; https://climate.apache.org/) is a Top-Level Project at the Apache Software Foundation that aims to provide a suite of tools for performing climate science evaluations using model outputs from a multitude of different sources (ESGF, CORDEX, U.S. NCA, NARCCAP) with remote sensing data from NASA, NOAA, and other agencies. Apache OCW is the second NASA project to become a Top-Level Project at the Apache Software Foundation. It grew out of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's (JPL) Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) project, a collaboration between JPL and the University of California, Los Angeles' Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering (JIFRESSE). Apache OCW provides scientists and developers with tools for data manipulation, metrics for dataset comparisons, and a visualization suite. In addition to a powerful low-level API, Apache OCW also supports a web application for quick, browser-controlled evaluations, a command line application for local evaluations, and a virtual machine for isolated experimentation with minimal setup. This talk will look at the difficulties and successes of moving a closed community research project out into the wild world of open source. We'll explore the growing pains Apache OCW went through to become a Top-Level Project at the Apache Software Foundation as well as the benefits gained by opening up development to the broader climate and computer science communities.

A Comparison Of Primitive Model Results Of The Short Term Wind Energy Prediction System (Sweps): WRF vs MM5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unal, E.; Tan, E.; Mentes, S. S.; Caglar, F.; Turkmen, M.; Unal, Y. S.; Onol, B.; Ozdemir, E. T.

2012-04-01

Although discontinuous behavior of wind field makes energy production more difficult, wind energy is the fastest growing renewable energy sector in Turkey which is the 6th largest electricity market in Europe. Short-term prediction systems, which capture the dynamical and statistical nature of the wind field in spatial and time scales, need to be advanced in order to increase the wind power prediction accuracy by using appropriate numerical weather forecast models. Therefore, in this study, performances of the next generation mesoscale Numerical Weather Forecasting model, WRF, and The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model, MM5, have been compared for the Western Part of Turkey. MM5 has been widely used by Turkish State Meteorological Service from which MM5 results were also obtained. Two wind farms of the West Turkey have been analyzed for the model comparisons by using two different model domain structures. Each model domain has been constructed by 3 nested domains downscaling from 9km to 1km resolution by the ratio of 3. Since WRF and MM5 models have no exactly common boundary layer, cumulus, and microphysics schemes, the similar physics schemes have been chosen for these two models in order to have reasonable comparisons. The preliminary results show us that, depending on the location of the wind farms, MM5 wind speed RMSE values are 1 to 2 m/s greater than that of WRF values. Since 1 to 2 m/s errors can be amplified when wind speed is converted to wind power; it is decided that the WRF model results are going to be used for the rest of the project.

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE PAGES

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; ...

2018-04-02

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less

Full Life-Cycle Defect Management Assessment: Initial Inspection Data Collection Results and Research Questions for Further Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shull, Forrest; Feldmann, Raimund; Haingaertner, Ralf; Regardie, Myrna; Seaman, Carolyn

2007-01-01

It is often the case in software projects that when schedule and budget resources are limited, the Verification and Validation (V&V) activities suffer. Fewer V&V activities can be afforded and moreover, short-term challenges can result in V&V activities being scaled back or dropped altogether. As a result, too often the default solution is to save activities for improving software quality until too late in the life-cycle, relying on late-term code inspections followed by thorough testing activities to reduce defect counts to acceptable levels. As many project managers realize, however, this is a resource-intensive way of achieving the required quality for software. The Full Life-cycle Defect Management Assessment Initiative, funded by NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance under the Software Assurance Research Program, aims to address these problems by: Improving the effectiveness of early life-cycle V&V activities to make their benefits more attractive to team leads. Specifically, we focus on software inspection, a proven method that can be applied to any software work product, long before executable code has been developed; Better communicating this effectiveness to software development teams, along with suggestions for parameters to improve in the future to increase effectiveness; Analyzing the impact of early life-cycle V&V on the effectiveness and cost required for late life-cycle V&V activities, such as testing, in order to make the tradeoffs more apparent. This white paper reports on an initial milestone in this work, the development of a preliminary model of inspection effectiveness across multiple NASA Centers. This model contributes toward reaching our project goals by: Allowing an examination of inspection parameters, across different types of projects and different work products, for an analysis of factors that impact defect detection effectiveness. Allowing a comparison of this NASA-specific model to existing recommendations in the literature regarding how to plan effective inspections. Forming a baseline model which can be extended to incorporate factors describing: the numbers and types of defects that are missed by inspections; how such defects flow downstream through software development phases; how effectively they can be caught by testing activities in the late stages of development. The model has been implemented in a prototype web-enabled decision-support tool which allows developers to enter their inspection data and receive feedback based on a comparison against the model. The tool also allows users to access reusable materials (such as checklists) from projects included in the baseline. Both the tool itself and the model underlying it will continue to be extended throughout the remainder of this initiative. As results of analyzing inspection effectiveness for defect containment are determined, they can be shared via the tool and also via updates to existing training courses on metrics and software inspections. Moreover, the tool will help satisfy key CMMI requirements for the NASA Centers, as it will enable NASA to take a global view across peer review results for various types of projects to identify systemic problems. This analysis can result in continuous improvements to the approach to verification.

Evaluating characteristics of dry spell changes in Lake Urmia Basin using an ensemble CMIP5 GCM models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazel, Nasim; Berndtsson, Ronny; Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia; Klove, Bjorn; Madani, Kaveh

2015-04-01

Drought is a natural phenomenon that can cause significant environmental, ecological, and socio-economic losses in water scarce regions. Studies of drought under climate change are essential for water resources planning and management. Dry spells and number of consecutive days with precipitation below a certain threshold can be used to identify the severity of hydrological drought. In this study, we analyzed the projected changes of number of dry days in two future periods, 2011-2040 and 2071-2100, for both seasonal and annual time scales in the Lake Urmia Basin. The lake and its wetlands, located in northwestern Iran, have invaluable environmental, social, and economic importance for the region. The lake level has been shrinking dramatically since 1995 and now the water volume is less than 30% of its original. Moreover, frequent dry spells have struck the region and effected the region's water resources and lake ecosystem as in other parts of Iran too. Analyzing future drought and dry spells characteristics in the region is crucial for sustainable water management and lake restoration plans. We used daily projected precipitation from 20 climate models used in the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5) driven by three representative paths, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and, RCP8.5. The model outputs were statistically downscaled and validated based on the historical observation period 1980-2010. We defined days with precipitation less than 1 mm as dry days for both observation periods and model projections. The model validation showed that all models underestimated the number of dry days. An ensemble based on the validation results consisting of five models which were in best agreement with observations was used to assess the changes in number of future dry days in Lake Urmia Basin. The entire ensemble showed increase in number of dry days for all seasons. The projected changes in winter and spring were larger than for summer and autumn. All models projected dryer winter and spring periods in the near and far future periods. The ensemble mean for future annual dry days increased by 6.5 % to 7.3% for the different climate change related emission and concentration pathway RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and, RCP8.5.

Competency-based models of learning for engineers: a comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lunev, Alexander; Petrova, Irina; Zaripova, Viktoria

2013-10-01

One of the goals of higher professional education is to develop generic student competencies across a variety of disciplines that play a crucial role in education and that provide wider opportunities for graduates in finding good jobs and more chance of promotion. In this article a list of generic competencies developed in Russian universities is compared with a similar list developed by a consortium of Russian and European universities (project TUNING-RUSSIA). Then there is a second comparison with a list of competencies taken from the CDIO Syllabus. This comparison indicates the degree of similarity among the lists and the possible convergence among universities all over the world. The results are taken from a survey carried out among Russian employers, academics, and graduates. The survey asked to rate each listed competence by its importance and the degree of achieving goals in the process of the education.

Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C. J.; Forster, P.; Richardson, T.; Myhre, G.; Pincus, R.

2016-12-01

The usefulness of previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises has been hampered by a lack of radiative forcing information. This has made it difficult to understand reasons for differences between model responses. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is easier to diagnose than traditional radiative forcing in global climate models (GCMs) and is more representative of the ultimate climate response. Here we examine the different methods of computing ERF in two GCMs. We find that ERF computed from a fixed sea-surface temperature (SST) method (ERF_fSST) has much more certainty than regression-based methods. Thirty-year integrations are sufficient to reduce the standard error in global ERF to 0.05 Wm-2. For 2xCO2 ERF, 30 year integrations are needed to ensure that the signal is larger than the standard error over more than 90% of the globe. Within the ERF_fSST method there are various options for prescribing SSTs and sea-ice. We explore these and find that ERF is only weakly dependent on the methodological choices. Prescribing the monthly-averaged seasonally varying model's preindustrial climatology is recommended for its smaller random error and easier implementation. As part of CMIP6, the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) asks models to conduct 30-year ERF_fSST experiments using the model's own preindustrial climatology of SST and sea-ice. The Aerosol and Chemistry Model intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) will also mainly use this approach. We propose this as a standard method for diagnosing ERF in models and recommend that it be used across the climate modeling community to aid future comparisons.

Analysis model for personal eHealth solutions and services.

PubMed

Mykkänen, Juha; Tuomainen, Mika; Luukkonen, Irmeli; Itälä, Timo

2010-01-01

In this paper, we present a framework for analysing and assessing various features of personal wellbeing information management services and solutions such as personal health records and citizen-oriented eHealth services. The model is based on general functional and interoperability standards for personal health management applications and generic frameworks for different aspects of analysis. It has been developed and used in the MyWellbeing project in Finland to provide baseline for the research, development and comparison of many different personal wellbeing and health management solutions and to support the development of unified "Coper" concept for citizen empowerment.

Construction of energy-stable Galerkin reduced order models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalashnikova, Irina; Barone, Matthew Franklin; Arunajatesan, Srinivasan

2013-05-01

This report aims to unify several approaches for building stable projection-based reduced order models (ROMs). Attention is focused on linear time-invariant (LTI) systems. The model reduction procedure consists of two steps: the computation of a reduced basis, and the projection of the governing partial differential equations (PDEs) onto this reduced basis. Two kinds of reduced bases are considered: the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) basis and the balanced truncation basis. The projection step of the model reduction can be done in two ways: via continuous projection or via discrete projection. First, an approach for building energy-stable Galerkin ROMs for linear hyperbolicmore » or incompletely parabolic systems of PDEs using continuous projection is proposed. The idea is to apply to the set of PDEs a transformation induced by the Lyapunov function for the system, and to build the ROM in the transformed variables. The resulting ROM will be energy-stable for any choice of reduced basis. It is shown that, for many PDE systems, the desired transformation is induced by a special weighted L2 inner product, termed the %E2%80%9Csymmetry inner product%E2%80%9D. Attention is then turned to building energy-stable ROMs via discrete projection. A discrete counterpart of the continuous symmetry inner product, a weighted L2 inner product termed the %E2%80%9CLyapunov inner product%E2%80%9D, is derived. The weighting matrix that defines the Lyapunov inner product can be computed in a black-box fashion for a stable LTI system arising from the discretization of a system of PDEs in space. It is shown that a ROM constructed via discrete projection using the Lyapunov inner product will be energy-stable for any choice of reduced basis. Connections between the Lyapunov inner product and the inner product induced by the balanced truncation algorithm are made. Comparisons are also made between the symmetry inner product and the Lyapunov inner product. The performance of ROMs constructed using these inner products is evaluated on several benchmark test cases.« less

Model-centric approaches for the development of health information systems.

PubMed

Tuomainen, Mika; Mykkänen, Juha; Luostarinen, Heli; Pöyhölä, Assi; Paakkanen, Esa

2007-01-01

Modeling is used increasingly in healthcare to increase shared knowledge, to improve the processes, and to document the requirements of the solutions related to health information systems (HIS). There are numerous modeling approaches which aim to support these aims, but a careful assessment of their strengths, weaknesses and deficiencies is needed. In this paper, we compare three model-centric approaches in the context of HIS development: the Model-Driven Architecture, Business Process Modeling with BPMN and BPEL and the HL7 Development Framework. The comparison reveals that all these approaches are viable candidates for the development of HIS. However, they have distinct strengths and abstraction levels, they require local and project-specific adaptation and offer varying levels of automation. In addition, illustration of the solutions to the end users must be improved.

Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - Comparison of the models and their utility for the fire brigades.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenzel, S.; Baumann-Stanzer, K.

2009-04-01

Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - Comparison of the models and their utility for the fire brigades. Sirma Stenzel, Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer In the case of accidental release of hazardous gases in the atmosphere, the emergency responders need a reliable and fast tool to assess the possible consequences and apply the optimal countermeasures. For hazard prediction and simulation of the hazard zones a number of air dispersion models are available. The most model packages (commercial or free of charge) include a chemical database, an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) and automated graphical output for display the results, they are easy to use and can operate fast and effective during stress situations. The models are designed especially for analyzing different accidental toxic release scenarios ("worst-case scenarios"), preparing emergency response plans and optimal countermeasures as well as for real-time risk assessment and management. There are also possibilities for model direct coupling to automatic meteorological stations, in order to avoid uncertainties in the model output due to insufficient or incorrect meteorological data. Another key problem in coping with accidental toxic release is the relative width spectrum of regulations and values, like IDLH, ERPG, AEGL, MAK etc. and the different criteria for their application. Since the particulate emergency responders and organizations require for their purposes unequal regulations and values, it is quite difficult to predict the individual hazard areas. There are a quite number of research studies and investigations coping with the problem, anyway the end decision is up to the authorities. The research project RETOMOD (reference scenarios calculations for toxic gas releases - model systems and their utility for the fire brigade) was conducted by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in cooperation with the Vienna fire brigade, OMV Refining & Marketing GmbH and Synex Ries & Greßlehner GmbH. RETOMOD was funded by the KIRAS safety research program at the Austrian Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology (www.kiras.at). One of the main tasks of this project was 1. Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input for modeling of the hazard areas (human exposure) during the accidental toxic releases. 2. Comparison of several model packages (based on reference scenarios) in order to estimate the utility for the fire brigades. This presentation introduces the project models used and presents the results of task 2. The results of task 1 are presented by Baumann-Stanzer and Stenzel in this session. For the purpose of this study the following models were tested and compared: ALOHA (Areal Location of Hazardous atmosphere, EPA), MEMPLEX (Keudel av-Technik GmbH), Breeze (Trinity Consulting), SAFER System, SAM (Engineering office Lohmeyer), COMPAS. A set of reference scenarios for Chlorine, Ammoniac, Butane and Petrol were proceed in order to reliably predict and estimate the human exposure during the event. The models simulated the accidental release from the mentioned above gases and estimates the potential toxic areas. Since the inputs requirement differ from model to model, and the outputs are based on different criteria for toxic areas and exposure, a high degree of caution in the interpretation of the model results is needed.

Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the western Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Manz, Bastian; Veliz Rosas, Claudia; Willems, Patrick; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

2016-04-01

The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research due to its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rain forest in carbon cycling. Climate change has also direct hydrological impact, and there have been increasing efforts to understand such dynamics at continental and subregional scales such as the scale of the western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the river. Using extremes value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 years. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100- year return floods). These findings are in agreement with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amid a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rain forest system over the greater Amazonia.

Comparison of multiple atmospheric chemistry schemes in C-IFS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flemming, Johannes; Huijnen, Vincent; Arteta, Joaquim; Stein, Olaf; Inness, Antje; Josse, Beatrice; Schultz, Martin; Peuch, Vincent-Henri

2013-04-01

As part of the MACCII -project (EU-FP7) ECMWF's integrated forecast system (IFS) is being extended by modules for chemistry, deposition and emission of reactive gases. This integration of the chemistry complements the integration of aerosol processes in IFS (Composition-IFS). C-IFS provides global forecasts and analysis of atmospheric composition. Its main motivation is to utilize the IFS for the assimilation of satellite observation of atmospheric composition. Furthermore, the integration of chemistry packages directly into IFS will achieve better consistency in terms of the treatment of physical processes and has the potential for simulating interactions between atmospheric composition and meteorology. Atmospheric chemistry in C-IFS can be represented by the modified CB05 scheme as implemented in the TM5 model and the RACMOBUS scheme as implemented in the MOCAGE model. An implementation of the scheme of the MOZART 3.5 model is ongoing. We will present the latest progress in the development and application of C-IFS. We will focus on the comparison of the different chemistry schemes in an otherwise identical C-IFS model setup (emissions, meteorology) as well as in their original Chemistry and Transport Model setup.

Using XCO2 retrievals for assessing the long-term consistency of NDACC/FTIR data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthlott, S.; Schneider, M.; Hase, F.; Wiegele, A.; Christner, E.; González, Y.; Blumenstock, T.; Dohe, S.; García, O. E.; Sepúlveda, E.; Strong, K.; Mendonca, J.; Weaver, D.; Palm, M.; Deutscher, N. M.; Warneke, T.; Notholt, J.; Lejeune, B.; Mahieu, E.; Jones, N.; Griffith, D. W. T.; Velazco, V. A.; Smale, D.; Robinson, J.; Kivi, R.; Heikkinen, P.; Raffalski, U.

2014-10-01

Within the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change), more than 20 FTIR (Fourier-Transform InfraRed) spectrometers, spread worldwide, provide long-term data records of many atmospheric trace gases. We present a method that uses measured and modelled XCO2 for assessing the consistency of these data records. Our NDACC XCO2 retrieval setup is kept simple so that it can easily be adopted for any NDACC/FTIR-like measurement made since the late 1950s. By a comparison to coincident TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network) measurements, we empirically demonstrate the useful quality of this NDACC XCO2 product (empirically obtained scatter between TCCON and NDACC is about 4‰ for daily mean as well as monthly mean comparisons and the bias is 25‰). As XCO2 model we developed and used a simple regression model fitted to CarbonTracker results and the Mauna Loa CO2 in-situ records. A comparison to TCCON data suggests an uncertainty of the model for monthly mean data of below 3‰. We apply the method to the NDACC/FTIR spectra that are used within the project MUSICA (MUlti-platform remote Sensing of Isotopologues for investigating the Cycle of Atmospheric water) and demonstrate that there is a good consistency for these globally representative set of spectra measured since 1996: the scatter between the modelled and measured XCO2 on a yearly time scale is only 3‰.

Using XCO2 retrievals for assessing the long-term consistency of NDACC/FTIR data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthlott, S.; Schneider, M.; Hase, F.; Wiegele, A.; Christner, E.; González, Y.; Blumenstock, T.; Dohe, S.; García, O. E.; Sepúlveda, E.; Strong, K.; Mendonca, J.; Weaver, D.; Palm, M.; Deutscher, N. M.; Warneke, T.; Notholt, J.; Lejeune, B.; Mahieu, E.; Jones, N.; Griffith, D. W. T.; Velazco, V. A.; Smale, D.; Robinson, J.; Kivi, R.; Heikkinen, P.; Raffalski, U.

2015-03-01

Within the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change), more than 20 FTIR (Fourier-transform infrared) spectrometers, spread worldwide, provide long-term data records of many atmospheric trace gases. We present a method that uses measured and modelled XCO2 for assessing the consistency of these NDACC data records. Our XCO2 retrieval setup is kept simple so that it can easily be adopted for any NDACC/FTIR-like measurement made since the late 1950s. By a comparison to coincident TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network) measurements, we empirically demonstrate the useful quality of this suggested NDACC XCO2 product (empirically obtained scatter between TCCON and NDACC is about 4‰ for daily mean as well as monthly mean comparisons, and the bias is 25‰). Our XCO2 model is a simple regression model fitted to CarbonTracker results and the Mauna Loa CO2 in situ records. A comparison to TCCON data suggests an uncertainty of the model for monthly mean data of below 3‰. We apply the method to the NDACC/FTIR spectra that are used within the project MUSICA (multi-platform remote sensing of isotopologues for investigating the cycle of atmospheric water) and demonstrate that there is a good consistency for these globally representative set of spectra measured since 1996: the scatter between the modelled and measured XCO2 on a yearly time scale is only 3‰.

Cost effectiveness of centralised and decentralised storm water treatment.

PubMed

Gruening, H; Hoppe, H; Messmann, S; Giga, A

2011-01-01

As part of a research & development project commissioned by the Land of North Rhine-Westphalia's Ministry for the Environment and Nature Conservation, Agriculture and Consumer Protection (MUNLV) an examination is being carried out of the general possibilities for centralised and decentralised treatment storm water runoff to be discharged into (canalised) receiving waters and the costs ensuing from this. The examination of the different options is being carried out under real conditions, with the Briller Creek (Wuppertal/Germany) and Müggen Creek (Remscheid/Germany) catchment areas being used as models. The range of investigations deals with a comparison between 'decentralised, semicentralised, centralised' storm water treatment, centralised storm water treatment involving a separate sewer and parameter-specific pollution based storm water runoff control. In the framework of the research project each of the variants is to be elaborated and the costs are to be calculated so as to permit a comparison between the different system designs. In particular, the investigations are to take into account the actual requirements to be met by storm water drainage systems involving separate sewage systems.

The Luneburg Sustainable University Project in International Comparison: An Assessment against North American Peers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beringer, Almut

2007-01-01

Purpose: To assess the Luneburg Sustainable University Project (the Project) in a non-European international context; to relate the project scholarly approach to selected scholarly and practice-oriented North American sustainability in higher education (SHE) methods; to analyze project innovations against North American initiatives.…

Comparison of computational to human observer detection for evaluation of CT low dose iterative reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eck, Brendan; Fahmi, Rachid; Brown, Kevin M.; Raihani, Nilgoun; Wilson, David L.

2014-03-01

Model observers were created and compared to human observers for the detection of low contrast targets in computed tomography (CT) images reconstructed with an advanced, knowledge-based, iterative image reconstruction method for low x-ray dose imaging. A 5-channel Laguerre-Gauss Hotelling Observer (CHO) was used with internal noise added to the decision variable (DV) and/or channel outputs (CO). Models were defined by parameters: (k1) DV-noise with standard deviation (std) proportional to DV std; (k2) DV-noise with constant std; (k3) CO-noise with constant std across channels; and (k4) CO-noise in each channel with std proportional to CO variance. Four-alternative forced choice (4AFC) human observer studies were performed on sub-images extracted from phantom images with and without a "pin" target. Model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood comparison to human probability correct (PC) data. PC in human and all model observers increased with dose, contrast, and size, and was much higher for advanced iterative reconstruction (IMR) as compared to filtered back projection (FBP). Detection in IMR was better than FPB at 1/3 dose, suggesting significant dose savings. Model(k1,k2,k3,k4) gave the best overall fit to humans across independent variables (dose, size, contrast, and reconstruction) at fixed display window. However Model(k1) performed better when considering model complexity using the Akaike information criterion. Model(k1) fit the extraordinary detectability difference between IMR and FBP, despite the different noise quality. It is anticipated that the model observer will predict results from iterative reconstruction methods having similar noise characteristics, enabling rapid comparison of methods.

Comparison of reintroduction and enhancement effects on metapopulation viability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halsey, Samniqueka J; Bell, Timothy J.; McEachern, A. Kathryn; Pavlovic, Noel B.

2015-01-01

Metapopulation viability depends upon a balance of extinction and colonization of local habitats by a species. Mechanisms that can affect this balance include physical characteristics related to natural processes (e.g. succession) as well as anthropogenic actions. Plant restorations can help to produce favorable metapopulation dynamics and consequently increase viability; however, to date no studies confirm this is true. Population viability analysis (PVA) allows for the use of empirical data to generate theoretical future projections in the form of median time to extinction and probability of extinction. In turn, PVAs can inform and aid the development of conservation, recovery, and management plans. Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri) is a dune endemic that exhibited metapopulation dynamics. We projected viability of three natural and two restored populations with demographic data spanning 15–23 years to determine the degree the addition of reintroduced population affects metapopulation viability. The models were validated by comparing observed and projected abundances and adjusting parameters associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity to improve model performance. Our chosen model correctly predicted yearly population abundance for 60% of the population-years. Using that model, 50-year projections showed that the addition of reintroductions increases metapopulation viability. The reintroduction that simulated population performance in early-successional habitats had the maximum benefit. In situ enhancements of existing populations proved to be equally effective. This study shows that restorations can facilitate and improve metapopulation viability of species dependent on metapopulation dynamics for survival with long-term persistence of C. pitcheri in Indiana likely to depend on continued active management.

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

1983-01-01

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: A comparison of a plot- and a global-scale ecosystem model to identify process-based uncertainties

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clein, Joy S.; Kwiatkowski, B.L.; McGuire, A.D.; Hobbie, J.E.; Rastetter, E.B.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.

2000-01-01

We are developing a process-based modelling approach to investigate how carbon (C) storage of tundra across the entire Arctic will respond to projected climate change. To implement the approach, the processes that are least understood, and thus have the most uncertainty, need to be identified and studied. In this paper, we identified a key uncertainty by comparing the responses of C storage in tussock tundra at one site between the simulations of two models - one a global-scale ecosystem model (Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, TEM) and one a plot-scale ecosystem model (General Ecosystem Model, GEM). The simulations spanned the historical period (1921-94) and the projected period (1995-2100). In the historical period, the model simulations of net primary production (NPP) differed in their sensitivity to variability in climate. However, the long-term changes in C storage were similar in both simulations, because the dynamics of heterotrophic respiration (RH) were similar in both models. In contrast, the responses of C storage in the two model simulations diverged during the projected period. In the GEM simulation for this period, increases in RH tracked increases in NPP, whereas in the TEM simulation increases in RH lagged increases in NPP. We were able to make the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations agree by parameterizing TEM to the fast soil C pools of GEM. We concluded that the differences between the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations lay in modelling the role of the recalcitrant soil C. These differences, which reflect an incomplete understanding of soil processes, lead to quite different projections of the response of pan-Arctic C storage to global change. For example, the reference parameterization of TEM resulted in an estimate of cumulative C storage of 2032 g C m-2 for moist tundra north of 50??N, which was substantially higher than the 463 g C m-2 estimated for a parameterization of fast soil C dynamics. This uncertainty in the depiction of the role of recalcitrant soil C in long-term ecosystem C dynamics resulted from our incomplete understanding of controls over C and N transformations in Arctic soils. Mechanistic studies of these issues are needed to improve our ability to model the response of Arctic ecosystems to global change.

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haywood, Alan; Dowsett, Harry; Dolan, Aisling; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark; Hunter, Stephen; Lunt, Daniel; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

2016-04-01

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate, and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilised for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilise state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land/ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forster, Piers M.; Richardson, Thomas; Maycock, Amanda C.; Smith, Christopher J.; Samset, Bjorn H.; Myhre, Gunnar; Andrews, Timothy; Pincus, Robert; Schulz, Michael

2016-10-01

The usefulness of previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises has been hampered by a lack of radiative forcing information. This has made it difficult to understand reasons for differences between model responses. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is easier to diagnose than traditional radiative forcing in global climate models (GCMs) and is more representative of the eventual temperature response. Here we examine the different methods of computing ERF in two GCMs. We find that ERF computed from a fixed sea surface temperature (SST) method (ERF_fSST) has much more certainty than regression based methods. Thirty year integrations are sufficient to reduce the 5-95% confidence interval in global ERF_fSST to 0.1 W m-2. For 2xCO2 ERF, 30 year integrations are needed to ensure that the signal is larger than the local confidence interval over more than 90% of the globe. Within the ERF_fSST method there are various options for prescribing SSTs and sea ice. We explore these and find that ERF is only weakly dependent on the methodological choices. Prescribing the monthly averaged seasonally varying model's preindustrial climatology is recommended for its smaller random error and easier implementation. As part of CMIP6, the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) asks models to conduct 30 year ERF_fSST experiments using the model's own preindustrial climatology of SST and sea ice. The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) will also mainly use this approach. We propose this as a standard method for diagnosing ERF and recommend that it be used across the climate modeling community to aid future comparisons.

Effects of muscle atrophy on motor control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stuart, D. G.

1985-01-01

As a biological tissue, muscle adapts to the demands of usage. One traditional way of assessing the extent of this adaptation has been to examine the effects of an altered-activity protocol on the physiological properties of muscles. However, in order to accurately interpret the changes associated with an activity pattern, it is necessary to employ an appropriate control model. A substantial literature exists which reports altered-use effects by comparing experimental observations with those from animals raised in small laboratory cages. Some evidence suggests that small-cage-reared animals actually represent a model of reduced use. For example, laboratory animals subjected to limited physical activity have shown resistance to insulin-induced glucose uptake which can be altered by exercise training. This project concerned itself with the basic mechanisms underlying muscle atrophy. Specifically, the project addressed the issue of the appropriateness of rats raised in conventional-sized cages as experimental models to examine this phenomenon. The project hypothesis was that rats raised in small cages are inappropriate models for the study of muscle atrophy. The experimental protocol involved: 1) raising two populations of rats, one group in conventional (small)-sized cages and the other group in a much larger (133x) cage, from weanling age (21 days) through to young adulthood (125 days); 2) comparison of size- and force-related characteristics of selected test muscles in an acute terminal paradigm.

Climateprediction.com: Public Involvement, Multi-Million Member Ensembles and Systematic Uncertainty Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, D. A.; Allen, M.; Kettleborough, J.; Collins, M.; Heaps, A.; Stott, P.; Wehner, M.

2001-12-01

The climateprediction.com project is preparing to carry out the first systematic uncertainty analysis of climate forecasts using large ensembles of GCM climate simulations. This will be done by involving schools, businesses and members of the public, and utilizing the novel technology of distributed computing. Each participant will be asked to run one member of the ensemble on their PC. The model used will initially be the UK Met Office's Unified Model (UM). It will be run under Windows and software will be provided to enable those involved to view their model output as it develops. The project will use this method to carry out large perturbed physics GCM ensembles and thereby analyse the uncertainty in the forecasts from such models. Each participant/ensemble member will therefore have a version of the UM in which certain aspects of the model physics have been perturbed from their default values. Of course the non-linear nature of the system means that it will be necessary to look not just at perturbations to individual parameters in specific schemes, such as the cloud parameterization, but also to the many combinations of perturbations. This rapidly leads to the need for very large, perhaps multi-million member ensembles, which could only be undertaken using the distributed computing methodology. The status of the project will be presented and the Windows client will be demonstrated. In addition, initial results will be presented from beta test runs using a demo release for Linux PCs and Alpha workstations. Although small by comparison to the whole project, these pilot results constitute a 20-50 member perturbed physics climate ensemble with results indicating how climate sensitivity can be substantially affected by individual parameter values in the cloud scheme.

Analyzing historical land use changes using a Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model: a case study in Zhenlai County, northeastern China

PubMed Central

Yang, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Shuwen; Liu, Yansui; Xing, Xiaoshi; de Sherbinin, Alex

2017-01-01

Historical land use information is essential to understanding the impact of anthropogenic modification of land use/cover on the temporal dynamics of environmental and ecological issues. However, due to a lack of spatial explicitness, complete thematic details and the conversion types for historical land use changes, the majority of historical land use reconstructions do not sufficiently meet the requirements for an adequate model. Considering these shortcomings, we explored the possibility of constructing a spatially-explicit modeling framework (HLURM: Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model). Then a three-map comparison method was adopted to validate the projected reconstruction map. The reconstruction suggested that the HLURM model performed well in the spatial reconstruction of various land-use categories, and had a higher figure of merit (48.19%) than models used in other case studies. The largest land use/cover type in the study area was determined to be grassland, followed by arable land and wetland. Using the three-map comparison, we noticed that the major discrepancies in land use changes among the three maps were as a result of inconsistencies in the classification of land-use categories during the study period, rather than as a result of the simulation model. PMID:28134342

Improving limited-projection-angle fluorescence molecular tomography using a co-registered x-ray computed tomography scan.

PubMed

Radrich, Karin; Ale, Angelique; Ermolayev, Vladimir; Ntziachristos, Vasilis

2012-12-01

We examine the improvement in imaging performance, such as axial resolution and signal localization, when employing limited-projection-angle fluorescence molecular tomography (FMT) together with x-ray computed tomography (XCT) measurements versus stand-alone FMT. For this purpose, we employed living mice, bearing a spontaneous lung tumor model, and imaged them with FMT and XCT under identical geometrical conditions using fluorescent probes for cancer targeting. The XCT data was employed, herein, as structural prior information to guide the FMT reconstruction. Gold standard images were provided by fluorescence images of mouse cryoslices, providing the ground truth in fluorescence bio-distribution. Upon comparison of FMT images versus images reconstructed using hybrid FMT and XCT data, we demonstrate marked improvements in image accuracy. This work relates to currently disseminated FMT systems, using limited projection scans, and can be employed to enhance their performance.

Examination of elevation dependency in observed and projected temperature change in the Upper Indus Basin and Western Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, H. J.; Forsythe, N. D.; Blenkinsop, S.; Archer, D.; Hardy, A.; Janes, T.; Jones, R. G.; Holderness, T.

2013-12-01

We present results of two distinct, complementary analyses to assess evidence of elevation dependency in temperature change in the UIB (Karakoram, Eastern Hindu Kush) and wider WH. The first analysis component examines historical remotely-sensed land surface temperature (LST) from the second and third generation of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR/2, AVHRR/3) instrument flown on NOAA satellite platforms since the mid-1980s through present day. The high spatial resolution (<4km) from AVHRR instrument enables precise consideration of the relationship between estimated LST and surface topography. The LST data product was developed as part of initiative to produce continuous time-series for key remotely sensed spatial products (LST, snow covered area, cloud cover, NDVI) extending as far back into the historical record as feasible. Context for the AVHRR LST data product is provided by results of bias assessment and validation procedures against both available local observations, both manned and automatic weather stations. Local observations provide meaningful validation and bias assessment of the vertical gradients found in the AVHRR LST as the elevation range from the lowest manned meteorological station (at 1460m asl) to the highest automatic weather station (4733m asl) covers much of the key range yielding runoff from seasonal snowmelt. Furthermore the common available record period of these stations (1995 to 2007) enables assessment not only of the AVHRR LST but also performance comparisons with the more recent MODIS LST data product. A range of spatial aggregations (from minor tributary catchments to primary basin headwaters) is performed to assess regional homogeneity and identify potential latitudinal or longitudinal gradients in elevation dependency. The second analysis component investigates elevation dependency, including its uncertainty, in projected temperature change trajectories in the downscaling of a seventeen member Global Climate Model (GCM) perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) of transient (130-year) simulations using a moderate resolution (25km) regional climate model (RCM). The GCM ensemble is the17-member QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Projections) ensemble and the downscaling is done using HadRM3P, part of the PRECIS regional climate modelling system. Both the RCM and GCMs are models developed the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and are based on the HadCM3 GCM. Use of the multi-member PPE enables quantification of uncertainty in projected temperature change while the spatial resolution of RCM improves insight into the role of elevation in projected rates of change. Furthermore comparison with the results of the remote sensing analysis component - considered to provide an 'observed climatology' - permits evaluation of individual ensemble members with regards to biases in spatial gradients in temperature as well timing and magnitude of annual cycles.

Next Generation Electromagnetic Pump Analysis Tools (PLM DOC-0005-2188). Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stregy, Seth; Dasilva, Ana; Yilmaz, Serkan

2015-10-29

This report provides the broad historical review of EM Pump development and details of MATRIX development under this project. This report summarizes the efforts made to modernize the legacy performance models used in previous EM Pump designs and the improvements made to the analysis tools. This report provides information on Tasks 1, 3, and 4 of the entire project. The research for Task 4 builds upon Task 1: Update EM Pump Databank and Task 3: Modernize the Existing EM Pump Analysis Model, which are summarized within this report. Where research for Task 2: Insulation Materials Development and Evaluation identified parametersmore » applicable to the analysis model with Task 4, the analysis code was updated, and analyses were made for additional materials. The important design variables for the manufacture and operation of an EM Pump that the model improvement can evaluate are: space constraints; voltage capability of insulation system; maximum flux density through iron; flow rate and outlet pressure; efficiency and manufacturability. The development of the next-generation EM Pump analysis tools during this two-year program provides information in three broad areas: Status of analysis model development; Improvements made to older simulations; and Comparison to experimental data.« less

Mesa Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST). I. Solar-scaled Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Jieun; Dotter, Aaron; Conroy, Charlie; Cantiello, Matteo; Paxton, Bill; Johnson, Benjamin D.

2016-06-01

This is the first of a series of papers presenting the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST) project, a new comprehensive set of stellar evolutionary tracks and isochrones computed using MESA, a state-of-the-art open-source 1D stellar evolution package. In this work, we present models with solar-scaled abundance ratios covering a wide range of ages (5≤slant {log}({Age}) [{year}]≤slant 10.3), masses (0.1≤slant M/{M}⊙ ≤slant 300), and metallicities (-2.0≤slant [{{Z}}/{{H}}]≤slant 0.5). The models are self-consistently and continuously evolved from the pre-main sequence (PMS) to the end of hydrogen burning, the white dwarf cooling sequence, or the end of carbon burning, depending on the initial mass. We also provide a grid of models evolved from the PMS to the end of core helium burning for -4.0≤slant [{{Z}}/{{H}}]\\lt -2.0. We showcase extensive comparisons with observational constraints as well as with some of the most widely used existing models in the literature. The evolutionary tracks and isochrones can be downloaded from the project website at http://waps.cfa.harvard.edu/MIST/.

Synchronous orbit power technology needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slifer, L. W., Jr.; Billerbeck, W. J.

1979-01-01

The needs are defined for future geosynchronous orbit spacecraft power subsystem components, including power generation, energy storage, and power processing. A review of the rapid expansion of the satellite communications field provides a basis for projection into the future. Three projected models, a mission model, an orbit transfer vehicle model, and a mass model for power subsystem components are used to define power requirements and mass limitations for future spacecraft. Based upon these three models, the power subsystems for a 10 kw, 10 year life, dedicated spacecraft and for a 20 kw, 20 year life, multi-mission platform are analyzed in further detail to establish power density requirements for the generation, storage and processing components of power subsystems as related to orbit transfer vehicle capabilities. Comparison of these requirements to state of the art design values shows that major improvements, by a factor of 2 or more, are needed to accomplish the near term missions. However, with the advent of large transfer vehicles, these requirements are significantly reduced, leaving the long lifetime requirement, associated with reliability and/or refurbishment, as the primary development need. A few technology advances, currently under development, are noted with regard to their impacts on future capability.

Genome3D: a UK collaborative project to annotate genomic sequences with predicted 3D structures based on SCOP and CATH domains.

PubMed

Lewis, Tony E; Sillitoe, Ian; Andreeva, Antonina; Blundell, Tom L; Buchan, Daniel W A; Chothia, Cyrus; Cuff, Alison; Dana, Jose M; Filippis, Ioannis; Gough, Julian; Hunter, Sarah; Jones, David T; Kelley, Lawrence A; Kleywegt, Gerard J; Minneci, Federico; Mitchell, Alex; Murzin, Alexey G; Ochoa-Montaño, Bernardo; Rackham, Owen J L; Smith, James; Sternberg, Michael J E; Velankar, Sameer; Yeats, Corin; Orengo, Christine

2013-01-01

Genome3D, available at http://www.genome3d.eu, is a new collaborative project that integrates UK-based structural resources to provide a unique perspective on sequence-structure-function relationships. Leading structure prediction resources (DomSerf, FUGUE, Gene3D, pDomTHREADER, Phyre and SUPERFAMILY) provide annotations for UniProt sequences to indicate the locations of structural domains (structural annotations) and their 3D structures (structural models). Structural annotations and 3D model predictions are currently available for three model genomes (Homo sapiens, E. coli and baker's yeast), and the project will extend to other genomes in the near future. As these resources exploit different strategies for predicting structures, the main aim of Genome3D is to enable comparisons between all the resources so that biologists can see where predictions agree and are therefore more trusted. Furthermore, as these methods differ in whether they build their predictions using CATH or SCOP, Genome3D also contains the first official mapping between these two databases. This has identified pairs of similar superfamilies from the two resources at various degrees of consensus (532 bronze pairs, 527 silver pairs and 370 gold pairs).

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Climate Impact Assessment for Pacific Northwest Agricultural Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.; Antle, J. M.; Zhang, H.; Capalbo, S. M.; Eigenbrode, S.; Kruger, C.; Stockle, C.; Wolfhorst, J. D.

2013-12-01

Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are projections of plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions used to carry out climate impact assessments for agriculture. The development of RAPs iss motivated by the fact that the various global and regional models used for agricultural climate change impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation or public availability. These practices have hampered attempts at model inter-comparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. This paper aims to (1) present RAPs developed for the principal wheat-producing region of the Pacific Northwest, and to (2) combine these RAPs with downscaled climate data, crop model simulations and economic model simulations to assess climate change impacts on winter wheat production and farm income. This research was carried out as part of a project funded by the USDA known as the Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (REACCH). The REACCH study region encompasses the major winter wheat production area in Pacific Northwest and preliminary research shows that farmers producing winter wheat could benefit from future climate change. However, the future world is uncertain in many dimensions, including commodity and input prices, production technology, and policies, as well as increased probability of disturbances (pests and diseases) associated with a changing climate. Many of these factors cannot be modeled, so they are represented in the regional RAPS. The regional RAPS are linked to global agricultural and shared social-economic pathways, and used along with climate change projections to simulate future outcomes for the wheat-based farms in the REACCH region.

Basin Characterisation by Means of Joint Inversion of Electromagnetic Geophysical Data, Borehole Data and Multivariate Statistical Methods: The Loop Head Peninsula, Western Ireland, Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campanya, J. L.; Ogaya, X.; Jones, A. G.; Rath, V.; McConnell, B.; Haughton, P.; Prada, M.

2016-12-01

The Science Foundation Ireland funded project IRECCSEM project (www.ireccsem.ie) aims to evaluate Ireland's potential for onshore carbon sequestration in saline aquifers by integrating new electromagnetic geophysical data with existing geophysical and geological data. One of the objectives of this component of IRECCSEM is to characterise the subsurface beneath the Loop Head Peninsula (part of Clare Basin, Co. Clare, Ireland), and identify major electrical resistivity structures that can guide an interpretation of the carbon sequestration potential of this area. During the summer of 2014, a magnetotelluric (MT) survey was carried out on the Loop Head Peninsula, and data from a total of 140 sites were acquired, including audio-magnetotelluric (AMT), and broadband magnetotelluric (BBMT). The dataset was used to generate shallow three-dimensional (3-D) electrical resistivity models constraining the subsurface to depths of up to 3.5 km. The three-dimensional (3-D) joint inversions were performed using three different types of electromagnetic data: MT impedance tensor (Z), geomagnetic transfer functions (T), and inter-station horizontal magnetic transfer-functions (H). The interpretation of the results was complemented with second-derivative models of the resulting electrical resistivity models, and a quantitative comparison with borehole data using multivariate statistical methods. Second-derivative models were used to define the main interfaces between the geoelectrical structures, facilitating superior comparison with geological and seismic results, and also reducing the influence of the colour scale when interpreting the results. Specific analysis was performed to compare the extant borehole data with the electrical resistivity model, identifying those structures that are better characterised by the resistivity model. Finally, the electrical resistivity model was also used to propagate some of the physical properties measured in the borehole, when a good relation was possible between the different types of data. The final results were compared with independent geological and geophysical data for a high-quality interpretation.

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

PubMed

Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

2016-02-16

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

PubMed Central

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

2016-01-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Frieler, K.; Warszawski, L.; Lange, S.; Schewe, J.; Reyer, C.; Ostberg, S.; Piontek, F.; Betts, R. A.; Burke, E.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Emanuel, K.; Elliott, J. W.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gosling, S.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, J.; Jones, C.; Krysanova, V.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mouratiadou, I.; Popp, A.; Tian, H.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Eddy, T.; Hattermann, F.; Huber, V.; Mengel, M.; Stevanovic, M.; Kirsten, T.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Denvil, S.; Halladay, K.; Suzuki, T.; Lotze, H. K.

2016-12-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

2017-04-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Exponentially growing tearing modes in Rijnhuizen Tokamak Project plasmas.

PubMed

Salzedas, F; Schüller, F C; Oomens, A A M

2002-02-18

The local measurement of the island width w, around the resonant surface, allowed a direct test of the extended Rutherford model [P. H. Rutherford, PPPL Report-2277 (1985)], describing the evolution of radiation-induced tearing modes prior to disruptions of tokamak plasmas. It is found that this model accounts very well for the observed exponential growth and supports radiation losses as being the main driving mechanism. The model implies that the effective perpendicular electron heat conductivity in the island is smaller than the global one. Comparison of the local measurements of w with the magnetic perturbed field B showed that w proportional to B1/2 was valid for widths up to 18% of the minor radius.

A Comparison of Forest Survey Data with Forest Dynamics Simulators FORCLIM and ZELIG along Climatic Gradients in the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busing, Richard T.; Solomon, Allen M.

2004-01-01

Two forest dynamics simulators are compared along climatic gradients in the Pacific Northwest. The ZELIG and FORCLIM models are tested against forest survey data from western Oregon. Their ability to generate accurate patterns of forest basal area and species composition is evaluated for series of sites with contrasting climate. Projections from both models approximate the basal area and composition patterns for three sites along the elevation gradient at H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the western Cascade Range. The ZELIG model is somewhat more accurate than FORCLIM at the two low-elevation sites. Attempts to project forest composition along broader climatic gradients reveal limitations of ZELIG, however. For example, ZELIG is less accurate than FORCLIM at projecting the average composition of a west Cascades ecoregion selected for intensive analysis. Also, along a gradient consisting of several sites on an east to west transect at 44.1oN latitude, both the FORCLIM model and the actual data show strong changes in composition and total basal area, but the ZELIG model shows a limited response. ZELIG does not simulate the declines in forest basal area and the diminished dominance of mesic coniferous species east of the Cascade crest. We conclude that ZELIG is suitable for analyses of certain sites for which it has been calibrated. FORCLIM can be applied in analyses involving a range of climatic conditions without requiring calibration for specific sites.

Interannual to Decadal Variability of Ocean Evaporation as Viewed from Climate Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan

2015-01-01

Questions we'll address: Given the uncoupled framework of "AMIP" (Atmosphere Model Inter-comparison Project) experiments, what can they tell us regarding evaporation variability? Do Reduced Observations Reanalyses (RedObs) using Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) pressure (and wind) provide a more realistic picture of evaporation variability? What signals of interannual variability (e.g. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and decadal variability (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)) are detectable with this hierarchy of evaporation estimates?

Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Hanqing; Liu, Chun; Lu, Yanyu; He, Dongyan; Tian, Hong

2017-06-01

As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than ever before http://cn.bing.com/dict/search?q=.&FORM=BDVSP6&mkt=zh-cn. The RB temperatures have caused severe impacts on ecosystems and human society. Here, we address changes in RB temperature events occurring over China in the past (1961-2014) as well as future projections (2006-2100) using observational data and the newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The number of RB events has a significant multi-decadal variability in China, and the intensity expresses a strong decrease from 1961 to 2014. However, more frequent RB events occurred in mid-eastern and northeastern China over last 30 years (1981-2010). Comparisons with observational data indicate multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations from the CMIP5 model perform well in simulating RB events for the historical run period (1961-2005). CMIP5 MME shows a relatively larger uncertainty for the change in intensity. From 2051 to 2100, fewer RB events are projected to occur in most parts of China according to RCP 2.6 scenarios. Over the longer period from 2006 to 2100, a remarkable increase is expected for the entire country according to RCP 8.5 scenarios and the maximum numbers of RB events increase by approximately 600 per year at end of twenty-first century.

Application of selection techniques to electric-propulsion options on an advanced synchronous satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holcomb, L. B.; Degrey, S. P.

1973-01-01

This paper addresses the comparison of several candidate auxiliary-propulsion systems and system combinations for an advanced synchronous satellite. Economic selection techniques, evolved at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, are used as a basis for system option comparisons. Electric auxiliary-propulsion types considered include pulsed plasma and ion bombardment, with hydrazine systems used as a state-of-the-art reference. Current as well as projected electric-propulsion system performance data are used, as well as projected hydrazine system costs resulting from NASA standardization program projections.

Gyrokinetic Particle Simulation of Turbulent Transport in Burning Plasmas (GPS - TTBP) Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chame, Jacqueline

2011-05-27

The goal of this project is the development of the Gyrokinetic Toroidal Code (GTC) Framework and its applications to problems related to the physics of turbulence and turbulent transport in tokamaks,. The project involves physics studies, code development, noise effect mitigation, supporting computer science efforts, diagnostics and advanced visualizations, verification and validation. Its main scientific themes are mesoscale dynamics and non-locality effects on transport, the physics of secondary structures such as zonal flows, and strongly coherent wave-particle interaction phenomena at magnetic precession resonances. Special emphasis is placed on the implications of these themes for rho-star and current scalings and formore » the turbulent transport of momentum. GTC-TTBP also explores applications to electron thermal transport, particle transport; ITB formation and cross-cuts such as edge-core coupling, interaction of energetic particles with turbulence and neoclassical tearing mode trigger dynamics. Code development focuses on major initiatives in the development of full-f formulations and the capacity to simulate flux-driven transport. In addition to the full-f -formulation, the project includes the development of numerical collision models and methods for coarse graining in phase space. Verification is pursued by linear stability study comparisons with the FULL and HD7 codes and by benchmarking with the GKV, GYSELA and other gyrokinetic simulation codes. Validation of gyrokinetic models of ion and electron thermal transport is pursed by systematic stressing comparisons with fluctuation and transport data from the DIII-D and NSTX tokamaks. The physics and code development research programs are supported by complementary efforts in computer sciences, high performance computing, and data management.« less

Evaluation of near surface ozone and particulate matter in air ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In this study, techniques typically used for future air quality projections are applied to a historical 11-year period to assess the performance of the modeling system when the driving meteorological conditions are obtained using dynamical downscaling of coarse-scale fields without correcting toward higher-resolution observations. The Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model are used to simulate regional climate and air quality over the contiguous United States for 2000–2010. The air quality simulations for that historical period are then compared to observations from four national networks. Comparisons are drawn between defined performance metrics and other published modeling results for predicted ozone, fine particulate matter, and speciated fine particulate matter. The results indicate that the historical air quality simulations driven by dynamically downscaled meteorology are typically within defined modeling performance benchmarks and are consistent with results from other published modeling studies using finer-resolution meteorology. This indicates that the regional climate and air quality modeling framework utilized here does not introduce substantial bias, which provides confidence in the method’s use for future air quality projections. This paper shows that if emissions inputs and coarse-scale meteorological inputs are reasonably accurate, then air quality can be simulated with acceptable accuracy even wi

Validation Results for LEWICE 3.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, William B.

2005-01-01

A research project is underway at NASA Glenn to produce computer software that can accurately predict ice growth under any meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. This report will present results from version 3.0 of this software, which is called LEWICE. This version differs from previous releases in that it incorporates additional thermal analysis capabilities, a pneumatic boot model, interfaces to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) flow solvers and has an empirical model for the supercooled large droplet (SLD) regime. An extensive comparison of the results in a quantifiable manner against the database of ice shapes and collection efficiency that have been generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) has also been performed. The complete set of data used for this comparison will eventually be available in a contractor report. This paper will show the differences in collection efficiency between LEWICE 3.0 and experimental data. Due to the large amount of validation data available, a separate report is planned for ice shape comparison. This report will first describe the LEWICE 3.0 model for water collection. A semi-empirical approach was used to incorporate first order physical effects of large droplet phenomena into icing software. Comparisons are then made to every single element two-dimensional case in the water collection database. Each condition was run using the following five assumptions: 1) potential flow, no splashing; 2) potential flow, no splashing with 21 bin drop size distributions and a lift correction (angle of attack adjustment); 3) potential flow, with splashing; 4) Navier-Stokes, no splashing; and 5) Navier-Stokes, with splashing. Quantitative comparisons are shown for impingement limit, maximum water catch, and total collection efficiency. The results show that the predicted results are within the accuracy limits of the experimental data for the majority of cases.

The development of an automatic recognition system for earmark and earprint comparisons.

PubMed

Junod, Stéphane; Pasquier, Julien; Champod, Christophe

2012-10-10

The value of earmarks as an efficient means of personal identification is still subject to debate. It has been argued that the field is lacking a firm systematic and structured data basis to help practitioners to form their conclusions. Typically, there is a paucity of research guiding as to the selectivity of the features used in the comparison process between an earmark and reference earprints taken from an individual. This study proposes a system for the automatic comparison of earprints and earmarks, operating without any manual extraction of key-points or manual annotations. For each donor, a model is created using multiple reference prints, hence capturing the donor within source variability. For each comparison between a mark and a model, images are automatically aligned and a proximity score, based on a normalized 2D correlation coefficient, is calculated. Appropriate use of this score allows deriving a likelihood ratio that can be explored under known state of affairs (both in cases where it is known that the mark has been left by the donor that gave the model and conversely in cases when it is established that the mark originates from a different source). To assess the system performance, a first dataset containing 1229 donors elaborated during the FearID research project was used. Based on these data, for mark-to-print comparisons, the system performed with an equal error rate (EER) of 2.3% and about 88% of marks are found in the first 3 positions of a hitlist. When performing print-to-print transactions, results show an equal error rate of 0.5%. The system was then tested using real-case data obtained from police forces. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of measured and modeled radiation, heat and water vapor fluxes: FIFE pilot study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blad, Blaine L.; Verma, Shashi B.; Hubbard, Kenneth G.; Starks, Patrick; Hays, Cynthia; Norman, John M.; Waltershea, Elizabeth

1988-01-01

The primary objectives of the 1985 study were to test the feasibility of using radio frequency receivers to collect data from automated weather stations and to evaluate the use of the data collected by the automated weather stations for modeling the fluxes of latent heat, sensible heat, and radiation over wheat. The model Cupid was used to calculate these fluxes which were compared with fluxes of these entities measured using micrometeorological techniques. The primary objectives of the 1986 study were to measure and model reflected and emitted radiation streams at a few locations within the First International Satellite Land-Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) site and to compare modeled and measured latent heat and sensible heat fluxes from the prairie vegetation.

Representing life in the Earth system with soil microbial functional traits in the MIMICS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieder, W. R.; Grandy, A. S.; Kallenbach, C. M.; Taylor, P. G.; Bonan, G. B.

2015-06-01

Projecting biogeochemical responses to global environmental change requires multi-scaled perspectives that consider organismal diversity, ecosystem processes, and global fluxes. However, microbes, the drivers of soil organic matter decomposition and stabilization, remain notably absent from models used to project carbon (C) cycle-climate feedbacks. We used a microbial trait-based soil C model with two physiologically distinct microbial communities, and evaluate how this model represents soil C storage and response to perturbations. Drawing from the application of functional traits used to model other ecosystems, we incorporate copiotrophic and oligotrophic microbial functional groups in the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) model; these functional groups are akin to "gleaner" vs. "opportunist" plankton in the ocean, or r- vs. K-strategists in plant and animal communities. Here we compare MIMICS to a conventional soil C model, DAYCENT (the daily time-step version of the CENTURY model), in cross-site comparisons of nitrogen (N) enrichment effects on soil C dynamics. MIMICS more accurately simulates C responses to N enrichment; moreover, it raises important hypotheses involving the roles of substrate availability, community-level enzyme induction, and microbial physiological responses in explaining various soil biogeochemical responses to N enrichment. In global-scale analyses, we show that MIMICS projects much slower rates of soil C accumulation than a conventional soil biogeochemistry in response to increasing C inputs with elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) - a finding that would reduce the size of the land C sink estimated by the Earth system. Our findings illustrate that tradeoffs between theory and utility can be overcome to develop soil biogeochemistry models that evaluate and advance our theoretical understanding of microbial dynamics and soil biogeochemical responses to environmental change.

Analytically based photon scatter modeling for a multipinhole cardiac SPECT camera.

PubMed

Pourmoghaddas, Amir; Wells, R Glenn

2016-11-01

Dedicated cardiac SPECT scanners have improved performance over standard gamma cameras allowing reductions in acquisition times and/or injected activity. One approach to improving performance has been to use pinhole collimators, but this can cause position-dependent variations in attenuation, sensitivity, and spatial resolution. CT attenuation correction (AC) and an accurate system model can compensate for many of these effects; however, scatter correction (SC) remains an outstanding issue. In addition, in cameras using cadmium-zinc-telluride-based detectors, a large portion of unscattered photons is detected with reduced energy (low-energy tail). Consequently, application of energy-based SC approaches in these cameras leads to a higher increase in noise than with standard cameras due to the subtraction of true counts detected in the low-energy tail. Model-based approaches with parallel-hole collimator systems accurately calculate scatter based on the physics of photon interactions in the patient and camera and generate lower-noise estimates of scatter than energy-based SC. In this study, the accuracy of a model-based SC method was assessed using physical phantom studies on the GE-Discovery NM530c and its performance was compared to a dual energy window (DEW)-SC method. The analytical photon distribution (APD) method was used to calculate the distribution of probabilities that emitted photons will scatter in the surrounding scattering medium and be subsequently detected. APD scatter calculations for 99m Tc-SPECT (140 ± 14 keV) were validated with point-source measurements and 15 anthropomorphic cardiac-torso phantom experiments and varying levels of extra-cardiac activity causing scatter inside the heart. The activity inserted into the myocardial compartment of the phantom was first measured using a dose calibrator. CT images were acquired on an Infinia Hawkeye (GE Healthcare) SPECT/CT and coregistered with emission data for AC. For comparison, DEW scatter projections (120 ± 6 keV ) were also extracted from the acquired list-mode SPECT data. Either APD or DEW scatter projections were subtracted from corresponding 140 keV measured projections and then reconstructed with AC (APD-SC and DEW-SC). Quantitative accuracy of the activity measured in the heart for the APD-SC and DEW-SC images was assessed against dose calibrator measurements. The difference between modeled and acquired projections was measured as the root-mean-squared-error (RMSE). APD-modeled projections for a clinical cardiac study were also evaluated. APD-modeled projections showed good agreement with SPECT measurements and had reduced noise compared to DEW scatter estimates. APD-SC reduced mean error in activity measurement compared to DEW-SC in images and the reduction was statistically significant where the scatter fraction (SF) was large (mean SF = 28.5%, T-test p = 0.007). APD-SC reduced measurement uncertainties as well; however, the difference was not found to be statistically significant (F-test p > 0.5). RMSE comparisons showed that elevated levels of scatter did not significantly contribute to a change in RMSE (p > 0.2). Model-based APD scatter estimation is feasible for dedicated cardiac SPECT scanners with pinhole collimators. APD-SC images performed better than DEW-SC images and improved the accuracy of activity measurement in high-scatter scenarios.

Baselines For Land-Use Change In The Tropics: Application ToAvoided Deforestation Projects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Sandra; Hall, Myrna; Andrasko, Ken

2007-06-01

Although forest conservation activities particularly in thetropics offer significant potential for mitigating carbon emissions,these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena causedby the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle,particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has twomain components: the projected land-use change and the correspondingcarbon stocks in the applicable pools such as vegetation, detritus,products and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult toaddress analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparingthree models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of pasttrends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growthmore » tomore complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicitmodels of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomicfactors. The three models of the latter category used in the analysis atregional scale are The Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use andCarbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD)model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropicalregions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions,population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) SantaCruz State, Bolivia; (3) Parana State in Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico;(5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacan, Mexico. A comparison of all modeloutputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quitedifferent deforestation baseline. In general, the simplest FAC model,applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highestamount of forest loss (four out of six) and the LUCS model the leastamount of loss (four out of five). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, wefound that readily observable physical and biological factors as well asdistance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as importantas either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors(less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We proposefrom the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps andsix tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We alsopropose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because,although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to beunrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-usechange and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analyticdomain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project),obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate historic baseline drivers,and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, abaseline of where deforestation is likely to occur --a potential land-usechange (PLUC) map is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD thatuses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation areprojected over a 10-year baseline period using any of the three models.Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stockestimates, baselineprojections are developed that can be used for projectGHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, atagreed interval (eg, +10 years), the baseline assumptions about baselinedrivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-yearbaseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g.,new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potentialland-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could beredone at the agreed interval, allowing the rates and changes in spatialdrivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, orderivation of a new baseline projection.« less

Commensurate comparisons of models with energy budget observations reveal consistent climate sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.

2017-12-01

Global energy budget observations have been widely used to constrain the effective, or instantaneous climate sensitivity (ICS), producing median estimates around 2°C (Otto et al. 2013; Lewis & Curry 2015). A key question is whether the comprehensive climate models used to project future warming are consistent with these energy budget estimates of ICS. Yet, performing such comparisons has proven challenging. Within models, values of ICS robustly vary over time, as surface temperature patterns evolve with transient warming, and are generally smaller than the values of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Naively comparing values of ECS in CMIP5 models (median of about 3.4°C) to observation-based values of ICS has led to the suggestion that models are overly sensitive. This apparent discrepancy can partially be resolved by (i) comparing observation-based values of ICS to model values of ICS relevant for historical warming (Armour 2017; Proistosescu & Huybers 2017); (ii) taking into account the "efficacies" of non-CO2 radiative forcing agents (Marvel et al. 2015); and (iii) accounting for the sparseness of historical temperature observations and differences in sea-surface temperature and near-surface air temperature over the oceans (Richardson et al. 2016). Another potential source of discrepancy is a mismatch between observed and simulated surface temperature patterns over recent decades, due to either natural variability or model deficiencies in simulating historical warming patterns. The nature of the mismatch is such that simulated patterns can lead to more positive radiative feedbacks (higher ICS) relative to those engendered by observed patterns. The magnitude of this effect has not yet been addressed. Here we outline an approach to perform fully commensurate comparisons of climate models with global energy budget observations that take all of the above effects into account. We find that when apples-to-apples comparisons are made, values of ICS in models are consistently in good agreement with values of ICS inferred from global energy budget constraints. This suggests that the current generation of coupled climate models are not overly sensitive. However, since global energy budget observations do not constrain ECS, it is less certain whether model ECS values are realistic.

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Addressing Needs of Operational Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuznetsova, M.; Maddox, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Hesse, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Macneice, P.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Zheng, Y.;

Assessment of simulated and projected climate change in Pakistan using IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeed, F.; Athar, H.

2017-11-01

A detailed spatio-temporal assessment of two basic climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) is carried out using 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)-based atmospheric oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) over data-sparse and climatically vulnerable region of Pakistan (20°-37° N and 60°-78° E), for the first time, for the baseline period (1975-1999), as well as for the three projected periods during the twenty-first century centered at 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099, respectively, both on seasonal and on annual bases, under three Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2, A1B, and B1. An ensemble-based approach consisting of the IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs indicates that during the winter season (from December to March), 66% of the models display robust projected increase of winter precipitation by about 10% relative to the baseline period, irrespective of emission scenario and projection period, in the upper northern subregion of Pakistan (latitude > 35° N). The projected robust changes in the temperature by the end of twenty-first century are in the range of 3 to 4 ° C during the winter season and on an annual basis, in the central and western regions of Punjab province, especially in A2 and A1B emission scenarios. In particular, the IPCC AR4 models project a progressive increase in temperature throughout Pakistan, in contrast to spatial distribution of precipitation, where spatially less uniform and robust results for projected periods are obtained on sign of change. In general, changes in both precipitation and temperature are larger in the summer season (JAS) as compared to the winter season in the coming decades, relative to the baseline period. This may require comprehensive long-term strategic policies to adapt and mitigate climate change in Pakistan, in comparison to what is currently envisaged.

Using LabView for real-time monitoring and tracking of multiple biological objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikolskyy, Aleksandr I.; Krasilenko, Vladimir G.; Bilynsky, Yosyp Y.; Starovier, Anzhelika

2017-04-01

Today real-time studying and tracking of movement dynamics of various biological objects is important and widely researched. Features of objects, conditions of their visualization and model parameters strongly influence the choice of optimal methods and algorithms for a specific task. Therefore, to automate the processes of adaptation of recognition tracking algorithms, several Labview project trackers are considered in the article. Projects allow changing templates for training and retraining the system quickly. They adapt to the speed of objects and statistical characteristics of noise in images. New functions of comparison of images or their features, descriptors and pre-processing methods will be discussed. The experiments carried out to test the trackers on real video files will be presented and analyzed.

A Comparison of Expedition Medical Condition List Treatment Directives with Integrated Medical Model Simulation Data Presentation and Briefing Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Robert

2013-01-01

This aerospace medicine clerkship project is under the direction of Dr. Sharmila Watkins and is in cooperation with Dr. Eric Kerstman and Dr. Ronak Shah. The questions of the research project are: 1. What are the main drivers of evacuation and loss of crew life (LOCL) on three Design Reference Missions (DRMs): Near Earth Asteroid (NEA), Lunar Sortie and Lunar Outpost using an inexhaustible International Space Station medical kit 2. What are the treatment designations for these driving medical conditions as listed in Expedition Medical Condition List (EMCL) 3. Do the drivers make sense in the context of the given Design Reference Mission (DRM) 4. Do any EMCL treatment designations need re-assessing.

Assessment of the 18-month permanence of onlay tip cartilage grafts following rhinoplasty.

PubMed

Persichetti, Paolo; Simone, Pierfranco; Carusi, Carlo

2013-09-01

Augmentation rhinoplasty requires addition of materials of various natures to reshape the nasal pyramid. Onlay tip grafts are single or multilayered grafts placed horizontally over the alar domes. The aim of the present study was to assess the 18-month permanence of onlay septal cartilage grafts. Twenty-eight patients underwent rhinoplasty with onlay tip cartilage graft, between June 2008 and November 2008 at the Campus Bio-Medico University in Rome, Italy. They were reviewed and photographed 6 months and 18 months postoperatively. Comparison of 6-month and 18-month postoperative pictures was performed with Adobe Photoshop CS. Measurements on pictures were taken with AutoCAD. Comparison of photographs showed no visible difference in nasal tip projection. Comparison of the measurements of tip projection showed a mean reduction of 0.06 mm (0.19%). Considerable stability of nasal tip projection after rhinoplasty with onlay tip grafts was observed postoperatively. Comparison of standardised digital photographs is a valid procedure to assess contour alterations of various anatomical structures after plastic surgery.

Hypersonic Navier Stokes Comparisons to Orbiter Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Charles H.; Nompelis, Ioannis; Candler, Graham; Barnhart, Michael; Yoon, Seokkwan

2009-01-01

Hypersonic chemical nonequilibrium simulations of low earth orbit entry flow fields are becoming increasingly commonplace as software and computational capabilities become more capable. However, development of robust and accurate software to model these environments will always encounter a significant barrier in developing a suite of high quality calibration cases. The US3D hypersonic nonequilibrium Navier Stokes analysis capability has been favorably compared to a number of wind tunnel test cases. Extension of the calibration basis for this software to Orbiter flight conditions will provide an incremental increase in confidence. As part of the Orbiter Boundary Layer Transition Flight Experiment and the Hypersonic Thermodynamic Infrared Measurements project, NASA is performing entry flight testing on the Orbiter to provide valuable aerothermodynamic heating data. An increase in interest related to orbiter entry environments is resulting from this activity. With the advent of this new data, comparisons of the US3D software to the new flight testing data is warranted. This paper will provide information regarding the framework of analyses that will be applied with the US3D analysis tool. In addition, comparisons will be made to entry flight testing data provided by the Orbiter BLT Flight Experiment and HYTHIRM projects. If data from digital scans of the Orbiter windward surface become available, simulations will also be performed to characterize the difference in surface heating between the CAD reference OML and the digitized surface provided by the surface scans.

A comparison between the 19th century early proposals and the 20th-21st centuries realized projects intended to contact other planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raulin Cerceau, Florence; Bilodeau, Bénédicte

2012-09-01

Methods dealing with how to contact other planets that are supposed to be inhabited by “intelligent” civilizations have begun more than one century and a half ago. The historical question has been already treated in several studies and the aim of this paper is not to provide details on that aspect. On the other hand, it could be interesting to make a comparison between the different approaches to contact planets, formulated at different epochs (even if obviously techniques were not in the same state of advancement). The most important characteristics of the earliest messages, remained only on a theoretical form, will be presented. The main features of modern messages, which have been concretely realized, will also be emphasized. Drawing a parallel between these two series of projects could demonstrate what has been considered as unavoidable by both pioneer and modern messages creators, while it has not been proved that the first ones have had any influence on the second ones. The common points emerging from this comparison could then (perhaps) help to select adequate models for an intelligible message intended to ETs, particularly concerning the language forms. Besides this, the differences could illustrate the human cultural advances in the field of METI and underline the tendencies that have been chosen in that field since the last decades.

Adapting the Biome-BGC Model to New Zealand Pastoral Agriculture: Climate Change and Land-Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.

2011-12-01

We have adapted the Biome-BGC model to make climate change and land-use scenario estimates of New Zealand's pasture production in 2020 and 2050, with comparison to a 2005 baseline. We take an integrated modelling approach with the aim of enabling the model's use for policy assessments across broadly related issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, land-use change, and greenhouse gas projections. The Biome-BGC model is a biogeochemical model that simulates carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. We introduce two new 'ecosystems', sheep/beef and dairy pasture, within the existing structure of the Biome-BGC model and calibrate its ecophysiological parameters against pasture clipping data from diverse sites around New Zealand to form a baseline estimate of total New Zealand pasture production. Using downscaled AR4 climate projections, we construct mid- and upper-range climate change scenarios in 2020 and 2050. We produce land-use change scenarios in the same years by combining the Biome-BGC model with the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model. The LURNZ model uses econometric approaches to predict future land-use change driven by changes in net profits driven by expected pricing, including the introduction of an emission trading system. We estimate the relative change in national pasture production from our 2005 baseline levels for both sheep/beef and dairy systems under each scenario.

Projecting Future Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest with High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Luong, T. M.; Lahmers, T.; Jares, M.; Carrillo, C. M.

2014-12-01

Most severe weather during the North American monsoon in the Southwest U.S. occurs in association with organized convection, including microbursts, dust storms, flash flooding and lightning. Our objective is to project how monsoon severe weather is changing due to anthropogenic global warming. We first consider a dynamically downscaled reanalysis (35 km grid spacing), generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model during the period 1948-2010. Individual severe weather events, identified by favorable thermodynamic conditions of instability and precipitable water, are then simulated for short-term, numerical weather prediction-type simulations of 24h at a convective-permitting scale (2 km grid spacing). Changes in the character of severe weather events within this period likely reflect long-term climate change driven by anthropogenic forcing. Next, we apply the identical model simulation and analysis procedures to several dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models for the period 1950-2100, to assess how monsoon severe weather may change in the future and if these changes correspond with what is already occurring per the downscaled renalaysis and available observational data. The CMIP5 models we are downscaling (HadGEM and MPI-ECHAM6) will be included as part of North American CORDEX. The regional model experimental design for severe weather event projection reasonably accounts for the known operational forecast prerequisites for severe monsoon weather. The convective-permitting simulations show that monsoon convection appears to be reasonably well captured with the use of the dynamically downscaled reanalysis, in comparison to Stage IV precipitation data. The regional model tends to initiate convection too early, though correctly simulates the diurnal maximum in convection in the afternoon and subsequent westward propagation of thunderstorms. Projected changes in extreme event precipitation will be described in relation to the long-term changes in thermodynamic and dynamic forcing mechanisms for severe weather. Results from this project will be used for climate change impacts assessment for U.S. military installations in the region.

On-orbit radiometric calibration over time and between spacecraft using the moon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kieffer, H.H.; Stone, T.C.; Barnes, R.A.; Bender, S.; Eplee, R.E.; Mendenhall, J.; Ong, L.; ,

2002-01-01

The Robotic Lunar Observatory (ROLO) project has developed a spectral irradiance model of the Moon that accounts for variations with lunar phase through the bright half of a month, lunar librations, and the location of an Earth-orbiting spacecraft. The methodology of comparing spacecraft observations of the Moon with this model has been developed to a set of standardized procedures so that comparisons can be readily made. In the cases where observations extend over several years (e.g., SeaWiFS), instrument response degradation has been determined with precision of about 0.1% per year. Because of the strong dependence of lunar irradiance on geometric angles, observations by two spacecraft cannot be directly compared unless acquired at the same time and location. Rather, the lunar irradiance based on each spacecraft instrument calibration can be compared with the lunar irradiance model. Even single observations by an instrument allow inter-comparison of its radiometric scale with other instruments participating in the lunar calibration program. Observations by SeaWiFS, ALI, Hyperion and MTI are compared here.

USM3D Unstructured Grid Solutions for CAWAPI at NASA LaRC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamar, John E.; Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.

2007-01-01

In support the Cranked Arrow Wing Aerodynamic Project International (CAWAPI) to improve the Technology Readiness Level of flow solvers by comparing results with measured F-16XL-1 flight data, NASA Langley employed the TetrUSS unstructured grid solver, USM3D, to obtain solutions for all seven flight conditions of interest. A newly available solver version that incorporates a number of turbulence models, including the two-equation linear and non-linear k-epsilon, was used in this study. As a first test, a choice was made to utilize only a single grid resolution with the solver for the simulation of the different flight conditions. Comparisons are presented with three turbulence models in USM3D, flight data for surface pressure, boundary-layer profiles, and skin-friction results, as well as limited predictions from other solvers. A result of these comparisons is that the USM3D solver can be used in an engineering environment to predict flow physics on a complex configuration at flight Reynolds numbers with a two-equation linear k-epsilon turbulence model.

Aeroacoustics of advanced propellers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groeneweg, John F.

1990-01-01

The aeroacoustics of advanced, high speed propellers (propfans) are reviewed from the perspective of NASA research conducted in support of the Advanced Turboprop Program. Aerodynamic and acoustic components of prediction methods for near and far field noise are summarized for both single and counterrotation propellers in uninstalled and configurations. Experimental results from tests at both takeoff/approach and cruise conditions are reviewed with emphasis on: (1) single and counterrotation model tests in the NASA Lewis 9 by 15 (low speed) and 8 by 6 (high speed) wind tunnels, and (2) full scale flight tests of a 9 ft (2.74 m) diameter single rotation wing mounted tractor and a 11.7 ft (3.57 m) diameter counterrotation aft mounted pusher propeller. Comparisons of model data projected to flight with full scale flight data show good agreement validating the scale model wind tunnel approach. Likewise, comparisons of measured and predicted noise level show excellent agreement for both single and counterrotation propellers. Progress in describing angle of attack and installation effects is also summarized. Finally, the aeroacoustic issues associated with ducted propellers (very high bypass fans) are discussed.

Transition modelling implications in the CFD analysis of a turbine nozzle vane cascade tested over a range of Mach and Reynolds numbers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marconcini, Michele; Pacciani, Roberto; Arnone, Andrea

2015-11-01

The aerodynamic performance of a gas turbine nozzle vane cascade was investigated over a range of Mach and Reynolds numbers. The work is part of a vast research project aimed at the analysis of fluid dynamics and heat transfer phenomena in cooled blades. In this paper computed results on the "solid vane" (without cooling devices) are presented and discussed in comparison with experimental data. Detailed measurements were provided by the University of Bergamo where the experimental campaign was carried out by means of a subsonic wind tunnel. The impact of boundary layer transition is investigated by using a novel laminar kinetic energy transport model and the widely used Langtry-Menter γ- Re θ,t model. The comparison between calculations and measurements is presented in terms of blade loading distributions, total pressure loss coefficient contours downstream of the cascade, and velocity/turbulence-intensity profiles within the boundary layer at selected blade surface locations at mid-span. It will be shown how transitional calculations compare favorably with experiments.

Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

2013-12-01

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences from AgMIP Regional Teams, and from the project on Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest, are used to discuss how the RAPs procedures can be further developed and improved, and how RAPs can help engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results.

Modeling Protoplanetary Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, Megan; Tubbs, Drake; Keller, L. D.

2018-01-01

Using spectra models with known parameters and comparing them to spectra gathered from real systems is often the only ways to find out what is going on in those real systems. This project uses the modeling programs of RADMC-3D to generate model spectra for systems containing protoplanetary disks. The parameters can be changed to simulate protoplanetary disks in different stages of planet formation, with different sized gaps in different areas of the disks, as well as protoplanetary disks that contain different types of dust. We are working on producing a grid of models that all have different variations in the parameters in order to generate a miniature database to use for comparisons to gathered spectra. The spectra produced from these simulations will be compared to spectra that have been gathered from systems in the Small Magellanic cloud in order to find out the contents and stage of development of that system. This allows us to see if and how planets are forming in the Small Magellanic cloud, a region which has much less metallicity than our own galaxy. The data we gather from comparisons between the model spectra and the spectra of systems in the Small Magellanic Cloud can then be applied to how planets may have formed in the early universe.

INNOVATIONS FOR INSTRUCTIONAL IMPROVEMENT.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

CUSHMAN, M.L.; STURGES, A.W.

THE CATSKILL AREA PROJECT IN SMALL SCHOOL DESIGN, THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA PROJECT FOR SMALL HIGH SCHOOLS, THE WESTERN STATES SMALL SCHOOLS PROJECT, AND THE TEXAS SMALL SCHOOLS PROJECT ARE DESCRIBED AND COMPARED. FINANCIAL SUPPORT COMPARISONS ARE MADE. METHODS OF IMPROVING INSTRUCTION ARE DIVIDED INTO TEACHER-CENTERED AND ADMINISTRATOR-CENTERED…

Performance evaluation of a non-hydrostatic regional climate model over the Mediterranean/Black Sea area and climate projections for the XXI century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, Paola; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Montesarchio, Myriam; Zollo, Alessandra Lucia

2013-04-01

In the framework of the Work Package 4 (Developing integrated tools for environmental assessment) of PERSEUS Project, high resolution climate simulations have been performed, with the aim of furthering knowledge in the field of climate variability at regional scale, its causes and impacts. CMCC is a no profit centre whose aims are the promotion, research coordination and scientific activities in the field of climate changes. In this work, we show results of numerical simulation performed over a very wide area (13W-46E; 29-56N) at spatial resolution of 14 km, which includes the Mediterranean and Black Seas, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. It is a non-hydrostatic model for the simulation of atmospheric processes, developed by the DWD-Germany for weather forecast services; successively, the model has been updated by the CLM-Community, in order to develop climatic applications. It is the only documented numerical model system in Europe designed for spatial resolutions down to 1 km with a range of applicability encompassing operational numerical weather prediction, regional climate modelling the dispersion of trace gases and aerosol and idealised studies and applicable in all regions of the world for a wide range of available climate simulations from global climate and NWP models. Different reasons justify the development of a regional model: the first is the increasing number of works in literature asserting that regional models have also the features to provide more detailed description of the climate extremes, that are often more important then their mean values for natural and human systems. The second one is that high resolution modelling shows adequate features to provide information for impact assessment studies. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A simulation covering the period 1971-2000 and driven by ERA40 reanalysis has been performed, in order to assess the capability of the model to reproduce the present climate, with "perfect boundary conditions". A comparison, in terms of 2-metre temperature and precipitation, with EOBS dataset will be shown and discussed, in order to analyze the capabilities in simulating the main features of the observed climate over a wide area, at high spatial resolution. Then, a comparison between the results of COSMO-CLM driven by the global model CMCC-MED (whose atmospheric component is ECHAM5) and by ERA40 will be provided for a characterization of the errors induced by the global model. Finally, climate projections on the examined area for the XXI century, considering the RCP4.5 emission scenario for the future, will be provided. In this work a special emphasis will be issued to the analysis of the capability to reproduce not only the average climate trend but also extremes of the present and future climate, in terms of temperature, precipitation and wind.

Fuel Cell Technology Status Composite Data Products | Hydrogen and Fuel

Science.gov Websites

Hours to 10% Stack Voltage Degradation CDP LAB 01, 5/8/17 Durability Lab Data Projection Sensitivity to Voltage Degradation Levels CDP LAB 02, 5/8/17 Field and Lab Durability Projection Comparison for LAB 04, 5/5/17 Comparison of MHE Field and Lab Data Voltage Durability CDP LAB 05, 5/3/2016 Data Set

Evaluation and comparison of different RCMs simulations of the Mediterranean climate: a view on the impact of model resolution and Mediterranean sea coupling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthou, Gérémy; Vrac, Mathieu; Drobinski, Philippe; Bastin, Sophie; Somot, Samuel; Li, Laurent

2015-04-01

As regularly stated by numerous authors, the Mediterranean climate is considered as one major climate 'hot spot'. At least, three reasons may explain this statement. First, this region is known for being regularly affected by extreme hydro-meteorological events (heavy precipitation and flash-floods during the autumn season; droughts and heat waves during spring and summer). Second, the vulnerability of populations in regard of these extreme events is expected to increase during the XXIst century (at least due to the projected population growth in this region). At last, Global Circulation Models project that this regional climate will be highly sensitive to climate change. Moreover, global warming is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and thus to increase the frequency of extreme hydro-meteorological events. In order to propose adaptation strategies, the robust estimation of the future evolution of the Mediterranean climate and the associated extreme hydro-meteorological events (in terms of intensity/frequency) is of great relevance. However, these projections are characterized by large uncertainties. Many components of the simulation chain can explain these large uncertainties : (i) uncertainties concerning the emission scenario; (ii) climate model simulations suffer of parametrization errors and uncertainties concerning the initial state of the climate; and (iii) the additional uncertainties given by the (dynamical or statistical) downscaling techniques and the impact model. Narrowing (as fine as possible) these uncertainties is a major challenge of the actual climate research. One way for that is to reduce the uncertainties associated with each component. In this study, we are interested in evaluating the potential improvement of : (i) coupled RCM simulations (with the Mediterranean Sea) in comparison with atmosphere only (stand-alone) RCM simulations and (ii) RCM simulations at a finer resolution in comparison with larger resolution. For that, three different RCMs (WRF, ALADIN, LMDZ4) were run, forced by ERA-Interim reanalyses, within the MED-CORDEX experiment. For each RCM, different versions (coupled/stand-alone, high/low resolution) were realized. A large set of scores was developed and applied in order to evaluate the performances of these different RCMs simulations. These scores were applied for three variables (daily precipitation amount, mean daily air temperature and the dry spell lengths). A particular attention was given to the RCM capability to reproduce the seasonal and spatial pattern of extreme statistics. Results show that the differences between coupled and stand-alone RCMs are localized very near the Mediterranean sea and that the model resolution has a slight impact on the scores obtained. Globally, the main differences between the RCM simulations come from the RCM used. Keywords: Mediterranean climate, extreme hydro-meteorological events, RCM simulations, evaluation of climate simulations

Comparison and modeling of effects of normal and reduced precipitation supply in field experiment with spring barley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohanková, Eva; Orság, Matěj; Fischer, Milan; Hlavinka, Petr

2015-04-01

This paper evaluates two-year (2013 and 2014) results of field experiments with spring barley (cultivar Bojos) under reduced precipitation supply. The field experiments were carried out at the experimental station in Domanínek (Czech Republic; 49°31,470'N, 16°14,400'E, altitude 530 m a.s.l.) and conducted by Institute of Agrosystems and bioclimatology at Mendel Univerzity in Brno in cooperation with Global Change Research Centre AS CR. The field experiments consisted of small plots in two variants and three repetitions. The first variant was uncovered the second was partially covered to exclude rain through out the whole vegetation season. For the partial covering of the plot, a material which transmits solar radiation and diverts rainwater away from the percentage coverage of the plots was used. In 2013, the covered area of the experimental plot was 30%, and in 2014, it was 70%. The main aim was to determine whether there are any differences in the spring barley's development, growth and yield in the uncovered and the partially covered plots, and a comparison of the results. Firstly, differences of key parameters (seasonal dynamics of the leaf area index and above ground biomass, soil water content, yield components and yields) compared; secondly, the results of the field experiments served as input data for the crop growth model DAISY. Subsequently, the crop growth model' ability to simulate crop growth and crop development which were affected by the drought stress was explored. The results were assessed using the following statistical indexes: root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE). This study was funded by project "Building up a multidisciplinary scientific team focused on drought" No. CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248, NAZV-JPI - project supported by Czech National Agency of Agricultural Research No. QJ1310123 "Crop modelling as a tool for increasing the production potential and food security of the Czech Republic under Climate Change" and project LD13030 supporting ES1106 COST Action.

Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Forster, Piers M.; Richardson, Thomas; Maycock, Amanda C.; ...

2016-10-27

The usefulness of previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises has been hampered by a lack of radiative forcing information. This has made it difficult to understand reasons for differences between model responses. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is easier to diagnose than traditional radiative forcing in global climate models (GCMs) and is more representative of the eventual temperature response. Here we examine the different methods of computing ERF in two GCMs. We find that ERF computed from a fixed sea surface temperature (SST) method (ERF_fSST) has much more certainty than regression based methods. Thirty year integrations are sufficient to reducemore » the 5–95% confidence interval in global ERF_fSST to 0.1Wm ~2. For 2xCO2 ERF, 30 year integrations are needed to ensure that the signal is larger than the local confidence interval over more than 90% of the globe. Within the ERF_fSST method there are various options for prescribing SSTs and sea ice. We explore these and find that ERF is only weakly dependent on the methodological choices. Prescribing the monthly averaged seasonally varying model’s preindustrial climatology is recommended for its smaller random error and easier implementation. As part of CMIP6, the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) asks models to conduct 30 year ERF_fSST experiments using the model’s own preindustrial climatology of SST and sea ice. The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) will also mainly use this approach. Lastly, we propose this as a standard method for diagnosing ERF and recommend that it be used across the climate modeling community to aid future comparisons.« less

Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forster, Piers M.; Richardson, Thomas; Maycock, Amanda C.

The usefulness of previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises has been hampered by a lack of radiative forcing information. This has made it difficult to understand reasons for differences between model responses. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is easier to diagnose than traditional radiative forcing in global climate models (GCMs) and is more representative of the eventual temperature response. Here we examine the different methods of computing ERF in two GCMs. We find that ERF computed from a fixed sea surface temperature (SST) method (ERF_fSST) has much more certainty than regression based methods. Thirty year integrations are sufficient to reducemore » the 5–95% confidence interval in global ERF_fSST to 0.1Wm ~2. For 2xCO2 ERF, 30 year integrations are needed to ensure that the signal is larger than the local confidence interval over more than 90% of the globe. Within the ERF_fSST method there are various options for prescribing SSTs and sea ice. We explore these and find that ERF is only weakly dependent on the methodological choices. Prescribing the monthly averaged seasonally varying model’s preindustrial climatology is recommended for its smaller random error and easier implementation. As part of CMIP6, the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) asks models to conduct 30 year ERF_fSST experiments using the model’s own preindustrial climatology of SST and sea ice. The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) will also mainly use this approach. Lastly, we propose this as a standard method for diagnosing ERF and recommend that it be used across the climate modeling community to aid future comparisons.« less

Reduction of metal artifacts: beam hardening and photon starvation effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadava, Girijesh K.; Pal, Debashish; Hsieh, Jiang

2014-03-01

The presence of metal-artifacts in CT imaging can obscure relevant anatomy and interfere with disease diagnosis. The cause and occurrence of metal-artifacts are primarily due to beam hardening, scatter, partial volume and photon starvation; however, the contribution to the artifacts from each of them depends on the type of hardware. A comparison of CT images obtained with different metallic hardware in various applications, along with acquisition and reconstruction parameters, helps understand methods for reducing or overcoming such artifacts. In this work, a metal beam hardening correction (BHC) and a projection-completion based metal artifact reduction (MAR) algorithms were developed, and applied on phantom and clinical CT scans with various metallic implants. Stainless-steel and Titanium were used to model and correct for metal beam hardening effect. In the MAR algorithm, the corrupted projection samples are replaced by the combination of original projections and in-painted data obtained by forward projecting a prior image. The data included spine fixation screws, hip-implants, dental-filling, and body extremity fixations, covering range of clinically used metal implants. Comparison of BHC and MAR on different metallic implants was used to characterize dominant source of the artifacts, and conceivable methods to overcome those. Results of the study indicate that beam hardening could be a dominant source of artifact in many spine and extremity fixations, whereas dental and hip implants could be dominant source of photon starvation. The BHC algorithm could significantly improve image quality in CT scans with metallic screws, whereas MAR algorithm could alleviate artifacts in hip-implants and dentalfillings.

Uncertainty and extreme events in future climate and hydrologic projections for the Pacific Northwest: providing a basis for vulnerability and core/corridor assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy S.; Mauger, Guillaume S.; Salathe, Eric P.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Stumbaugh, Matt R.; Elsner, Marketa; Norheim, Robert; Lutz, Eric R.; Mantua, Nathan J.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this project was to (1) provide an internally-consistent set of downscaled projections across the Western U.S., (2) include information about projection uncertainty, and (3) assess projected changes of hydrologic extremes. These objectives were designed to address decision support needs for climate adaptation and resource management actions. Specifically, understanding of uncertainty in climate projections – in particular for extreme events – is currently a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. The new dataset fills in the Northwest domain to cover a key gap in the previous dataset, adds additional projections (both from other global climate models and a comparison with dynamical downscaling) and includes an assessment of changes to flow and soil moisture extremes. This new information can be used to assess variations in impacts across the landscape, uncertainty in projections, and how these differ as a function of region, variable, and time period. In this project, existing University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW CIG) products were extended to develop a comprehensive data archive that accounts (in a reigorous and physically based way) for climate model uncertainty in future climate and hydrologic scenarios. These products can be used to determine likely impacts on vegetation and aquatic habitat in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, including WA, OR, ID, northwest MT to the continental divide, northern CA, NV, UT, and the Columbia Basin portion of western WY New data series and summaries produced for this project include: 1) extreme statistics for surface hydrology (e.g. frequency of soil moisture and summer water deficit) and streamflow (e.g. the 100-year flood, extreme 7-day low flows with a 10-year recurrence interval); 2) snowpack vulnerability as indicated by the ratio of April 1 snow water to cool-season precipitation; and, 3) uncertainty analyses for multiple climate scenarios.

Development of a mathematical model of the human cardiovascular system: An educational perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Bruce Allen

A mathematical model of the human cardiovascular system will be a useful educational tool in biological sciences and bioengineering classrooms. The goal of this project is to develop a mathematical model of the human cardiovascular system that responds appropriately to variations of significant physical variables. Model development is based on standard fluid statics and dynamics principles, pressure-volume characteristics of the cardiac cycle, and compliant behavior of blood vessels. Cardiac cycle phases provide the physical and logical model structure, and Boolean algebra links model sections. The model is implemented using VisSim, a highly intuitive and easily learned block diagram modeling software package. Comparisons of model predictions of key variables to published values suggest that the model reasonably approximates expected behavior of those variables. The model responds plausibly to variations of independent variables. Projected usefulness of the model as an educational tool is threefold: independent variables which determine heart function may be easily varied to observe cause and effect; the model is used in an interactive setting; and the relationship of governing equations to model behavior is readily viewable and intuitive. Future use of this model in classrooms may give a more reasonable indication of its value as an educational tool.* *This dissertation includes a CD that is multimedia (contains text and other applications that are not available in a printed format). The CD requires the following applications: CorelPhotoHouse, CorelWordPerfect, VisSinViewer (included on CD), Internet access.

[Comparison Analysis of Economic and Engineering Control of Industrial VOCs].

PubMed

Wang, Yu-fei; Liu, Chang-xin; Cheng, Jie; Hao, Zheng-ping; Wang, Zheng

2015-04-01

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) pollutant has become China's major air pollutant in key urban areas like sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter. It is mainly produced from industry sectors, and engineering control is one of the most important reduction measures. During the 12th Five-Year Plan, China decides to invest 40 billion RMB to build pollution control projects in key industry sectors with annual emission reduction of 605 000 t x a(-1). It shows that China attaches a great importance to emission reduction by engineering projects and highlights the awareness of engineering reduction technologies. In this paper, a macroeconomic model, namely computable general equilibrium model, (CGE model) was employed to simulate engineering control and economic control (imposing environmental tax). We aim to compare the pros and cons of the two reduction policies. Considering the economic loss of the whole country, the environmental tax has more impacts on the economy system than engineering reduction measures. We suggest that the central government provides 7 500 RMB x t(-1) as subsidy for enterprises in industry sectors to encourage engineering reduction.

Street-running LRT may not affect a neighbour's sleep

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, S. K.; Wang, J.-N.

2003-10-01

A comprehensive dynamic finite difference model and analysis was conducted simulating LRT running at the speed of 24 km/h on a city street. The analysis predicted ground borne vibration (GBV) to remain at or below the FTA criterion of a RMS velocity of 72 VdB (0.004 in/s) at the nearest residence. In the model, site-specific stratography and dynamic soil and rock properties were used that were determined from in situ testing. The dynamic input load from LRT vehicle running at 24 km/h was computed from actual measured data from Portland, Oregon's West Side LRT project, which used a low floor vehicle similar to the one proposed for the NJ Transit project. During initial trial runs of the LRT system, vibration and noise measurements were taken at three street locations while the vehicles were running at about the 20-24 km/h operating speed. The measurements confirmed the predictions and satisfied FTA criteria for noise and vibration for frequent events. This paper presents the analytical model, GBV predictions, site measurement data and comparison with FTA criterion.

Aerothermal Testing for Project Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berry, Scott A.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Lillard, Randolph P.; Kirk, Benjamin S.; Fischer-Cassady, Amy

2009-01-01

The Project Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle aerothermodynamic experimentation strategy, as it relates to flight database development, is reviewed. Experimental data has been obtained to both validate the computational predictions utilized as part of the database and support the development of engineering models for issues not adequately addressed with computations. An outline is provided of the working groups formed to address the key deficiencies in data and knowledge for blunt reentry vehicles. The facilities utilized to address these deficiencies are reviewed, along with some of the important results obtained thus far. For smooth wall comparisons of computational convective heating predictions against experimental data from several facilities, confidence was gained with the use of algebraic turbulence model solutions as part of the database. For cavities and protuberances, experimental data is being used for screening various designs, plus providing support to the development of engineering models. With the reaction-control system testing, experimental data were acquired on the surface in combination with off-body flow visualization of the jet plumes and interactions. These results are being compared against predictions for improved understanding of aftbody thermal environments and uncertainties.

Characterizing and Addressing the Need for Statistical Adjustment of Global Climate Model Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

As part of its mission to research and measure the effects of the changing climate, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) regularly uses the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset. However, these data are generated at a global level and are not fine-tuned for specific watersheds. This often causes CMIP5 output to vary from locally observed patterns in the climate. Several downscaling methods have been developed to increase the resolution of the CMIP5 data and decrease systemic differences to support decision-makers as they evaluate results at the watershed scale. Evaluating preliminary comparisons of observed and projected flow frequency curves over the US revealed a simple framework for water resources decision makers to plan and design water resources management measures under changing conditions using standard tools. Using this framework as a basis, USACE has begun to explore to use of statistical adjustment to alter global climate model data to better match the locally observed patterns while preserving the general structure and behavior of the model data. When paired with careful measurement and hypothesis testing, statistical adjustment can be particularly effective at navigating the compromise between the locally observed patterns and the global climate model structures for decision makers.

Statistically significant relational data mining :

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berry, Jonathan W.; Leung, Vitus Joseph; Phillips, Cynthia Ann

This report summarizes the work performed under the project (3z(BStatitically significant relational data mining.(3y (BThe goal of the project was to add more statistical rigor to the fairly ad hoc area of data mining on graphs. Our goal was to develop better algorithms and better ways to evaluate algorithm quality. We concetrated on algorithms for community detection, approximate pattern matching, and graph similarity measures. Approximate pattern matching involves finding an instance of a relatively small pattern, expressed with tolerance, in a large graph of data observed with uncertainty. This report gathers the abstracts and references for the eight refereed publicationsmore » that have appeared as part of this work. We then archive three pieces of research that have not yet been published. The first is theoretical and experimental evidence that a popular statistical measure for comparison of community assignments favors over-resolved communities over approximations to a ground truth. The second are statistically motivated methods for measuring the quality of an approximate match of a small pattern in a large graph. The third is a new probabilistic random graph model. Statisticians favor these models for graph analysis. The new local structure graph model overcomes some of the issues with popular models such as exponential random graph models and latent variable models.« less