How Adverse Outcome Pathways Can Aid the Development and Use of Computational Prediction Models for Regulatory Toxicology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wittwehr, Clemens; Aladjov, Hristo; Ankley, Gerald

Efforts are underway to transform regulatory toxicology and chemical safety assessment from a largely empirical science based on direct observation of apical toxicity outcomes in whole organism toxicity tests to a predictive one in which outcomes and risk are inferred from accumulated mechanistic understanding. The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework has emerged as a systematic approach for organizing knowledge that supports such inference. We argue that this systematic organization of knowledge can inform and help direct the design and development of computational prediction models that can further enhance the utility of mechanistic and in silico data for chemical safety assessment.more » Examples of AOP-informed model development and its application to the assessment of chemicals for skin sensitization and multiple modes of endocrine disruption are provided. The role of problem formulation, not only as a critical phase of risk assessment, but also as guide for both AOP and complementary model development described. Finally, a proposal for actively engaging the modeling community in AOP-informed computational model development is made. The contents serve as a vision for how AOPs can be leveraged to facilitate development of computational prediction models needed to support the next generation of chemical safety assessment.« less

An introduction to the partial credit model for developing nursing assessments.

PubMed

Fox, C

1999-11-01

The partial credit model, which is a special case of the Rasch measurement model, was presented as a useful way to develop and refine complex nursing assessments. The advantages of the Rasch model over the classical psychometric model were presented including the lack of bias in the measurement process, the ability to highlight those items in need of refinement, the provision of information on congruence between the data and the model, and feedback on the usefulness of the response categories. The partial credit model was introduced as a way to develop complex nursing assessments such as performance-based assessments, because of the model's ability to accommodate a variety of scoring procedures. Finally, an application of the partial credit model was illustrated using the Practical Knowledge Inventory for Nurses, a paper-and-pencil instrument that measures on-the-job decision-making for nurses.

Development and Assessment of a New Empirical Model for Predicting Full Creep Curves

PubMed Central

Gray, Veronica; Whittaker, Mark

2015-01-01

This paper details the development and assessment of a new empirical creep model that belongs to the limited ranks of models reproducing full creep curves. The important features of the model are that it is fully standardised and is universally applicable. By standardising, the user no longer chooses functions but rather fits one set of constants only. Testing it on 7 contrasting materials, reproducing 181 creep curves we demonstrate its universality. New model and Theta Projection curves are compared to one another using an assessment tool developed within this paper. PMID:28793458

Models of Personnel Needs Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mattson, Beverly

This report presents samples of models and strategies for determining professional development needs of special education personnel. The following areas are covered: definitions of needs and the needs assessment process; personnel needs assessment regulations under the Comprehensive System of Personnel Development, the Individuals with…

Conceptual Models and Guidelines for Clinical Assessment of Financial Capacity.

PubMed

Marson, Daniel

2016-09-01

The ability to manage financial affairs is a life skill of critical importance, and neuropsychologists are increasingly asked to assess financial capacity across a variety of settings. Sound clinical assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of applicable clinical conceptual models and principles. However, the literature has presented relatively little conceptual guidance for clinicians concerning financial capacity and its assessment. This article seeks to address this gap. The article presents six clinical models of financial capacity : (1) the early gerontological IADL model of Lawton, (2) the clinical skills model and (3) related cognitive psychological model developed by Marson and colleagues, (4) a financial decision-making model adapting earlier decisional capacity work of Appelbaum and Grisso, (5) a person-centered model of financial decision-making developed by Lichtenberg and colleagues, and (6) a recent model of financial capacity in the real world developed through the Institute of Medicine. Accompanying presentation of the models is discussion of conceptual and practical perspectives they represent for clinician assessment. Based on the models, the article concludes by presenting a series of conceptually oriented guidelines for clinical assessment of financial capacity. In summary, sound assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of clinical conceptual models and principles. Awareness of such models, principles and guidelines will strengthen and advance clinical assessment of financial capacity. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Development and Validation of a Consumer Quality Assessment Instrument for Dentistry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Jeffrey D.; And Others

1990-01-01

This paper reviews the literature on consumer involvement in dental quality assessment, argues for inclusion of this information in quality assessment measures, outlines a conceptual model for measuring dental consumer quality assessment, and presents data relating to the development and validation of an instrument based on the conceptual model.…

Authentic assessment based showcase portfolio on learning of mathematical problem solving in senior high school

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukmawati, Zuhairoh, Faihatuz

2017-05-01

The purpose of this research was to develop authentic assessment model based on showcase portfolio on learning of mathematical problem solving. This research used research and development Method (R & D) which consists of four stages of development that: Phase I, conducting a preliminary study. Phase II, determining the purpose of developing and preparing the initial model. Phase III, trial test of instrument for the initial draft model and the initial product. The respondents of this research are the students of SMAN 8 and SMAN 20 Makassar. The collection of data was through observation, interviews, documentation, student questionnaire, and instrument tests mathematical solving abilities. The data were analyzed with descriptive and inferential statistics. The results of this research are authentic assessment model design based on showcase portfolio which involves: 1) Steps in implementing the authentic assessment based Showcase, assessment rubric of cognitive aspects, assessment rubric of affective aspects, and assessment rubric of skill aspect. 2) The average ability of the students' problem solving which is scored by using authentic assessment based on showcase portfolio was in high category and the students' response in good category.

Review and comparison between the Wells-Riley and dose-response approaches to risk assessment of infectious respiratory diseases.

PubMed

Sze To, G N; Chao, C Y H

2010-02-01

Infection risk assessment is very useful in understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and in predicting the risk of these diseases to the public. Quantitative infection risk assessment can provide quantitative analysis of disease transmission and the effectiveness of infection control measures. The Wells-Riley model has been extensively used for quantitative infection risk assessment of respiratory infectious diseases in indoor premises. Some newer studies have also proposed the use of dose-response models for such purpose. This study reviews and compares these two approaches to infection risk assessment of respiratory infectious diseases. The Wells-Riley model allows quick assessment and does not require interspecies extrapolation of infectivity. Dose-response models can consider other disease transmission routes in addition to airborne route and can calculate the infectious source strength of an outbreak in terms of the quantity of the pathogen rather than a hypothetical unit. Spatial distribution of airborne pathogens is one of the most important factors in infection risk assessment of respiratory disease. Respiratory deposition of aerosol induces heterogeneous infectivity of intake pathogens and randomness on the intake dose, which are not being well accounted for in current risk models. Some suggestions for further development of the risk assessment models are proposed. This review article summarizes the strengths and limitations of the Wells-Riley and the dose-response models for risk assessment of respiratory diseases. Even with many efforts by various investigators to develop and modify the risk assessment models, some limitations still persist. This review serves as a reference for further development of infection risk assessment models of respiratory diseases. The Wells-Riley model and dose-response model offer specific advantages. Risk assessors can select the approach that is suitable to their particular conditions to perform risk assessment.

Developing Computer Model-Based Assessment of Chemical Reasoning: A Feasibility Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Xiufeng; Waight, Noemi; Gregorius, Roberto; Smith, Erica; Park, Mihwa

2012-01-01

This paper reports a feasibility study on developing computer model-based assessments of chemical reasoning at the high school level. Computer models are flash and NetLogo environments to make simultaneously available three domains in chemistry: macroscopic, submicroscopic, and symbolic. Students interact with computer models to answer assessment…

Developing Statistical Models to Assess Transplant Outcomes Using National Registries: The Process in the United States.

PubMed

Snyder, Jon J; Salkowski, Nicholas; Kim, S Joseph; Zaun, David; Xiong, Hui; Israni, Ajay K; Kasiske, Bertram L

2016-02-01

Created by the US National Organ Transplant Act in 1984, the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) is obligated to publicly report data on transplant program and organ procurement organization performance in the United States. These reports include risk-adjusted assessments of graft and patient survival, and programs performing worse or better than expected are identified. The SRTR currently maintains 43 risk adjustment models for assessing posttransplant patient and graft survival and, in collaboration with the SRTR Technical Advisory Committee, has developed and implemented a new systematic process for model evaluation and revision. Patient cohorts for the risk adjustment models are identified, and single-organ and multiorgan transplants are defined, then each risk adjustment model is developed following a prespecified set of steps. Model performance is assessed, the model is refit to a more recent cohort before each evaluation cycle, and then it is applied to the evaluation cohort. The field of solid organ transplantation is unique in the breadth of the standardized data that are collected. These data allow for quality assessment across all transplant providers in the United States. A standardized process of risk model development using data from national registries may enhance the field.

Usability in product design--the importance and need for systematic assessment models in product development--Usa-Design Model (U-D) ©.

PubMed

Merino, Giselle Schmidt Alves Díaz; Teixeira, Clarissa Stefani; Schoenardie, Rodrigo Petry; Merino, Eugenio Andrés Diáz; Gontijo, Leila Amaral

2012-01-01

In product design, human factors are considered as an element of differentiation given that today's consumer demands are increasing. Safety, wellbeing, satisfaction, health, effectiveness, efficiency, and other aspects must be effectively incorporated into the product development process. This work proposes a usability assessment model that can be incorporated as an assessment tool. The methodological approach is settled in two stages. First a literature review focus specifically on usability and developing user-centred products. After this, a model of usability named Usa-Design (U-D©) is presented. Consisted of four phases: understanding the use context, pre-preliminary usability assessment (efficiency/effectiveness/satisfaction); assessment of usability principles and results, U-D© features are modular and flexible, allowing principles used in Phase 3 to be changed according to the needs and scenario of each situation. With qualitative/quantitative measurement scales of easy understanding and application, the model results are viable and applicable throughout all the product development process.

National-scale Assessment of Air Toxics Risks

EPA Science Inventory

The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

Development and Exemplification of a Model for Teacher Assessment in Primary Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davies, D. J.; Earle, S.; McMahon, K.; Howe, A.; Collier, C.

2017-01-01

The Teacher Assessment in Primary Science project is funded by the Primary Science Teaching Trust and based at Bath Spa University. The study aims to develop a whole-school model of valid, reliable and manageable teacher assessment to inform practice and make a positive impact on primary-aged children's learning in science. The model is based on a…

Multistage Complexity in Language Proficiency Assessment: A Framework for Aligning Theoretical Perspectives, Test Development, and Psychometrics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luecht, Richard M.

2003-01-01

This article contends that the necessary links between constructs and test scores/decisions in language assessment must be established through principled design procedures that align three models: (1) a theoretical construct model; (2) a test development model; and (3) a psychometric scoring model. The theoretical construct model articulates the…

How adverse outcome pathways can aid the development and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Efforts are underway to transform regulatory toxicology and chemical safety assessment from a largely empirical science based on direct observation of apical toxicity outcomes in whole organism toxicity tests to a predictive one in which outcomes and risk are inferred from accumulated mechanistic understanding. The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework has emerged as a systematic approach for organizing knowledge that supports such inference. We argue that this systematic organization of knowledge can inform and help direct the design and development of computational prediction models that can further enhance the utility of mechanistic and in silico data for chemical safety assessment. Examples of AOP-informed model development and its application to the assessment of chemicals for skin sensitization and multiple modes of endocrine disruption are provided. The role of problem formulation, not only as a critical phase of risk assessment, but also as guide for both AOP and complementary model development described. Finally, a proposal for actively engaging the modeling community in AOP-informed computational model development is made. The contents serve as a vision for how AOPs can be leveraged to facilitate development of computational prediction models needed to support the next generation of chemical safety assessment. The present manuscript reports on expert opinion and case studies that came out of a European Commission, Joint Research Centre-sponsored work

Validity of Basic Electronic 1 Module Integrated Character Value Based on Conceptual Change Teaching Model to Increase Students Physics Competency in STKIP PGRI West Sumatera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidayati, A.; Rahmi, A.; Yohandri; Ratnawulan

2018-04-01

The importance of teaching materials in accordance with the characteristics of students became the main reason for the development of basic electronics I module integrated character values based on conceptual change teaching model. The module development in this research follows the development procedure of Plomp which includes preliminary research, prototyping phase and assessment phase. In the first year of this research, the module is validated. Content validity is seen from the conformity of the module with the development theory in accordance with the demands of learning model characteristics. The validity of the construct is seen from the linkage and consistency of each module component developed with the characteristic of the integrated learning model of character values obtained through validator assessment. The average validation value assessed by the validator belongs to a very valid category. Based on the validator assessment then revised the basic electronics I module integrated character values based on conceptual change teaching model.

A Functional Model for Management of Large Scale Assessments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banta, Trudy W.; And Others

This functional model for managing large-scale program evaluations was developed and validated in connection with the assessment of Tennessee's Nutrition Education and Training Program. Management of such a large-scale assessment requires the development of a structure for the organization; distribution and recovery of large quantities of…

Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

2018-06-01

Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Journal Article Survival models are developed here to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple dose dataset to predict the probability of death through specifying dose-response functions and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) has an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed employ different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this paper. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit datasets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response datasets specifically designed to assess potential multiple dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this paper to dev

Assessing the Basic Traits Associated with Psychopathy: Development and Validation of the Elemental Psychopathy Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lynam, Donald R.; Gaughan, Eric T.; Miller, Joshua D.; Miller, Drew J.; Mullins-Sweatt, Stephanie; Widiger, Thomas A.

2011-01-01

A new self-report assessment of the basic traits of psychopathy was developed with a general trait model of personality (five-factor model [FFM]) as a framework. Scales were written to assess maladaptive variants of the 18 FFM traits that are robustly related to psychopathy across a variety of perspectives including empirical correlations, expert…

How Adverse Outcome Pathways Can Aid the Development and Use of Computational Prediction Models for Regulatory Toxicology

PubMed Central

Aladjov, Hristo; Ankley, Gerald; Byrne, Hugh J.; de Knecht, Joop; Heinzle, Elmar; Klambauer, Günter; Landesmann, Brigitte; Luijten, Mirjam; MacKay, Cameron; Maxwell, Gavin; Meek, M. E. (Bette); Paini, Alicia; Perkins, Edward; Sobanski, Tomasz; Villeneuve, Dan; Waters, Katrina M.; Whelan, Maurice

2017-01-01

Efforts are underway to transform regulatory toxicology and chemical safety assessment from a largely empirical science based on direct observation of apical toxicity outcomes in whole organism toxicity tests to a predictive one in which outcomes and risk are inferred from accumulated mechanistic understanding. The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework provides a systematic approach for organizing knowledge that may support such inference. Likewise, computational models of biological systems at various scales provide another means and platform to integrate current biological understanding to facilitate inference and extrapolation. We argue that the systematic organization of knowledge into AOP frameworks can inform and help direct the design and development of computational prediction models that can further enhance the utility of mechanistic and in silico data for chemical safety assessment. This concept was explored as part of a workshop on AOP-Informed Predictive Modeling Approaches for Regulatory Toxicology held September 24–25, 2015. Examples of AOP-informed model development and its application to the assessment of chemicals for skin sensitization and multiple modes of endocrine disruption are provided. The role of problem formulation, not only as a critical phase of risk assessment, but also as guide for both AOP and complementary model development is described. Finally, a proposal for actively engaging the modeling community in AOP-informed computational model development is made. The contents serve as a vision for how AOPs can be leveraged to facilitate development of computational prediction models needed to support the next generation of chemical safety assessment. PMID:27994170

A manufacturing quality assessment model based-on two stages interval type-2 fuzzy logic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purnomo, Muhammad Ridwan Andi; Helmi Shintya Dewi, Intan

2016-01-01

This paper presents the development of an assessment models for manufacturing quality using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic (IT2-FL). The proposed model is developed based on one of building block in sustainable supply chain management (SSCM), which is benefit of SCM, and focuses more on quality. The proposed model can be used to predict the quality level of production chain in a company. The quality of production will affect to the quality of product. Practically, quality of production is unique for every type of production system. Hence, experts opinion will play major role in developing the assessment model. The model will become more complicated when the data contains ambiguity and uncertainty. In this study, IT2-FL is used to model the ambiguity and uncertainty. A case study taken from a company in Yogyakarta shows that the proposed manufacturing quality assessment model can work well in determining the quality level of production.

Model and Analytic Processes for Export License Assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thompson, Sandra E.; Whitney, Paul D.; Weimar, Mark R.

2011-09-29

This paper represents the Department of Energy Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development (NA-22) Simulations, Algorithms and Modeling (SAM) Program's first effort to identify and frame analytical methods and tools to aid export control professionals in effectively predicting proliferation intent; a complex, multi-step and multi-agency process. The report focuses on analytical modeling methodologies that alone, or combined, may improve the proliferation export control license approval process. It is a follow-up to an earlier paper describing information sources and environments related to international nuclear technology transfer. This report describes the decision criteria used to evaluate modeling techniques and tools to determinemore » which approaches will be investigated during the final 2 years of the project. The report also details the motivation for why new modeling techniques and tools are needed. The analytical modeling methodologies will enable analysts to evaluate the information environment for relevance to detecting proliferation intent, with specific focus on assessing risks associated with transferring dual-use technologies. Dual-use technologies can be used in both weapons and commercial enterprises. A decision-framework was developed to evaluate which of the different analytical modeling methodologies would be most appropriate conditional on the uniqueness of the approach, data availability, laboratory capabilities, relevance to NA-22 and Office of Arms Control and Nonproliferation (NA-24) research needs and the impact if successful. Modeling methodologies were divided into whether they could help micro-level assessments (e.g., help improve individual license assessments) or macro-level assessment. Macro-level assessment focuses on suppliers, technology, consumers, economies, and proliferation context. Macro-level assessment technologies scored higher in the area of uniqueness because less work has been done at the macro level. An approach to developing testable hypotheses for the macro-level assessment methodologies is provided. The outcome of this works suggests that we should develop a Bayes Net for micro-level analysis and continue to focus on Bayes Net, System Dynamics and Economic Input/Output models for assessing macro-level problems. Simultaneously, we need to develop metrics for assessing intent in export control, including the risks and consequences associated with all aspects of export control.« less

How to Develop and Interpret a Credibility Assessment of Numerical Models for Human Research: NASA-STD-7009 Demystified

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Emily S.; Mulugeta, Lealem; Walton, Marlei; Myers, Jerry G.

2014-01-01

In the wake of the Columbia accident, the NASA-STD-7009 [1] credibility assessment was developed as a unifying platform to describe model credibility and the uncertainties in its modeling predictions. This standard is now being adapted by NASAs Human Research Program to cover a wide range of numerical models for human research. When used properly, the standard can improve the process of code development by encouraging the use of best practices. It can also give management more insight in making informed decisions through a better understanding of the models capabilities and limitations.To a newcomer, the abstractions presented in NASA-STD-7009 and the sheer volume of information that must be absorbed can be overwhelming. This talk is aimed at describing the credibility assessment, which is the heart of the standard, in plain terms. It will outline how to develop a credibility assessment under the standard. It will also show how to quickly interpret the graphs and tables that result from the assessment and how to drill down from the top-level view to the foundation of the assessment. Finally, it will highlight some of the resources that are available for further study.

Comparing GIS-based habitat models for applications in EIA and SEA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gontier, Mikael, E-mail: gontier@kth.s; Moertberg, Ulla, E-mail: mortberg@kth.s; Balfors, Berit, E-mail: balfors@kth.s

Land use changes, urbanisation and infrastructure developments in particular, cause fragmentation of natural habitats and threaten biodiversity. Tools and measures must be adapted to assess and remedy the potential effects on biodiversity caused by human activities and developments. Within physical planning, environmental impact assessment (EIA) and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) play important roles in the prediction and assessment of biodiversity-related impacts from planned developments. However, adapted prediction tools to forecast and quantify potential impacts on biodiversity components are lacking. This study tested and compared four different GIS-based habitat models and assessed their relevance for applications in environmental assessment. The modelsmore » were implemented in the Stockholm region in central Sweden and applied to data on the crested tit (Parus cristatus), a sedentary bird species of coniferous forest. All four models performed well and allowed the distribution of suitable habitats for the crested tit in the Stockholm region to be predicted. The models were also used to predict and quantify habitat loss for two regional development scenarios. The study highlighted the importance of model selection in impact prediction. Criteria that are relevant for the choice of model for predicting impacts on biodiversity were identified and discussed. Finally, the importance of environmental assessment for the preservation of biodiversity within the general frame of biodiversity conservation is emphasised.« less

Program Development and External Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minnis, D. L.

Although the development of new models is essential to the improvement of teacher preparation programs, the California system of accreditation of teacher education programs seems to hinder innovative program development and evaluation. External assessment in California is based on a discrepancy model which works best when applied to static…

Modeling the Development of Vocational Competence: A Psychometric Model for Economic Domains

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klotz, Viola Katharina; Winther, Esther; Festner, Dagmar

2015-01-01

This article discusses the development of vocational competence through economic vocational educational training (VET) from a theoretical and psychometric perspective. Most assessment and competence models tend to adopt a state perspective toward assessments of competence and carve out different structures of competence for diverse vocational…

Program Assessment: Getting to a Practical How-To Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gardiner, Lorraine R.; Corbitt, Gail; Adams, Steven J.

2010-01-01

The Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB) International's assurance of learning (AoL) standards require that schools develop a sophisticated continuous-improvement process. The authors review various assessment models and develop a practical, 6-step AoL model based on the literature and the authors' AoL-implementation…

Personality predictors of the development of elementary school children's intentions to drink alcohol: the mediating effects of attitudes and subjective norms.

PubMed

Hampson, Sarah E; Andrews, Judy A; Barckley, Maureen; Severson, Herbert H

2006-09-01

The authors tested a mediation model in which childhood hostility and sociability were expected to influence the development of intentions to use alcohol in the future through the mediating mechanisms of developing attitudes and norms. Children in 1st through 5th grades (N=1,049) from a western Oregon community participated in a longitudinal study involving 4 annual assessments. Hostility and sociability were assessed by teachers' ratings at the 1st assessment, and attitudes, subjective norms, and intentions were assessed by self-report at all 4 assessments. For both genders, latent growth modeling demonstrated that sociability predicted an increase in intentions to use alcohol over time, whereas hostility predicted initial levels of these intentions. These personality effects were mediated by the development of attitudes and subjective norms, supporting a model wherein childhood personality traits exert their influence on the development of intentions to use alcohol through the development of these more proximal cognitions. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Personality Predictors of the Development of Elementary-School Children’s Intentions to Drink Alcohol

PubMed Central

Hampson, Sarah E.; Andrews, Judy A.; Barckley, Maureen; Severson, Herbert H.

2008-01-01

The authors tested a mediation model in which childhood hostility and sociability were expected to influence the development of intentions to use alcohol in the future through the mediating mechanisms of developing attitudes and norms. Children in 1st through 5th grades (N = 1,049) from a Western Oregon community participated in a longitudinal study involving four annual assessments. Hostility and sociability were assessed by teachers= ratings at the first assessment, and attitudes, subjective norms and intentions were assessed by self-report at all four assessments. For both genders, latent growth modeling demonstrated that sociability predicted an increase in intentions to use alcohol over time, whereas hostility predicted initial levels of these intentions. These personality effects were mediated by the development of attitudes and subjective norms, supporting a model wherein childhood personality traits exert their influence on the development of intentions to use alcohol through the development of these more proximal cognitions. PMID:16938066

Assessing Academic Risk of Student-Athletes: Applicability of the NCAA Graduation Risk Overview Model to GPA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, James

2013-01-01

In an effort to standardize academic risk assessment, the NCAA developed the graduation risk overview (GRO) model. Although this model was designed to assess graduation risk, its ability to predict grade-point average (GPA) remained unknown. Therefore, 134 individual risk assessments were made to determine GRO model effectiveness in the…

A Model for Making Decisions about Ethical Dilemmas in Student Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Robert L.; Liu, Jin; Burgess, Yin

2017-01-01

In this mixed-methods study we investigated the development of a generalized ethics decision-making model that can be applied in considering ethical dilemmas related to student assessment. For the study, we developed five scenarios that describe ethical dilemmas associated with student assessment. Survey participants (i.e., educators) completed an…

Stirling engine - Approach for long-term durability assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tong, Michael T.; Bartolotta, Paul A.; Halford, Gary R.; Freed, Alan D.

1992-01-01

The approach employed by NASA Lewis for the long-term durability assessment of the Stirling engine hot-section components is summarized. The approach consists of: preliminary structural assessment; development of a viscoplastic constitutive model to accurately determine material behavior under high-temperature thermomechanical loads; an experimental program to characterize material constants for the viscoplastic constitutive model; finite-element thermal analysis and structural analysis using a viscoplastic constitutive model to obtain stress/strain/temperature at the critical location of the hot-section components for life assessment; and development of a life prediction model applicable for long-term durability assessment at high temperatures. The approach should aid in the provision of long-term structural durability and reliability of Stirling engines.

Moderation and Assessment Project--South West. A Presentation of a Model for Moderating Pupils' Work That Is Teacher Assessed, Developed in England, UK.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radnor, Hilary

The Moderation and Assessment Project, South West, was an outgrowth of the Technical and Vocational Educational Initiative of the government of the United Kingdom that attempted to develop more courses with vocational relevance for adolescents. Growing from research projects under the Moderation and Assessment project, a new model of moderation is…

T-R Cycle Characterization and Imaging: Advanced Diagnostic Methodology for Petroleum Reservoir and Trap Detection and Delineation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernest A. Mancini; William C. Parcell; Bruce S. Hart

The principal research effort for Year 2 of the project is on stratigraphic model assessment and development. The research focus for the first six (6) months of Year 2 is on T-R cycle model development. The emphasis for the remainder of the year is on assessing the depositional model and developing and testing a sequence stratigraphy model. The development and testing of the sequence stratigraphy model has been accomplished through integrated outcrop, well log and seismic studies of Mesozoic strata in the Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic and Rocky Mountain areas.

A systematic literature review of open source software quality assessment models.

PubMed

Adewumi, Adewole; Misra, Sanjay; Omoregbe, Nicholas; Crawford, Broderick; Soto, Ricardo

2016-01-01

Many open source software (OSS) quality assessment models are proposed and available in the literature. However, there is little or no adoption of these models in practice. In order to guide the formulation of newer models so they can be acceptable by practitioners, there is need for clear discrimination of the existing models based on their specific properties. Based on this, the aim of this study is to perform a systematic literature review to investigate the properties of the existing OSS quality assessment models by classifying them with respect to their quality characteristics, the methodology they use for assessment, and their domain of application so as to guide the formulation and development of newer models. Searches in IEEE Xplore, ACM, Science Direct, Springer and Google Search is performed so as to retrieve all relevant primary studies in this regard. Journal and conference papers between the year 2003 and 2015 were considered since the first known OSS quality model emerged in 2003. A total of 19 OSS quality assessment model papers were selected. To select these models we have developed assessment criteria to evaluate the quality of the existing studies. Quality assessment models are classified into five categories based on the quality characteristics they possess namely: single-attribute, rounded category, community-only attribute, non-community attribute as well as the non-quality in use models. Our study reflects that software selection based on hierarchical structures is found to be the most popular selection method in the existing OSS quality assessment models. Furthermore, we found that majority (47%) of the existing models do not specify any domain of application. In conclusion, our study will be a valuable contribution to the community and helps the quality assessment model developers in formulating newer models and also to the practitioners (software evaluators) in selecting suitable OSS in the midst of alternatives.

Alternate Models of Needs Assessment: Selecting the Right One for Your Organization.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leigh, Doug; Watkins, Ryan; Platt, William A.; Kaufman, Roger

2000-01-01

Defines needs assessment and compares different models in terms of levels (mega, macro, micro) and process and input. Recommends assessment of strengths and weakness of a model before using it in human resource development. (SK)

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF POPULATION MODELS TO SUPPORT EPA'S ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESSES FOR PESTICIDES

EPA Science Inventory

As part of a broader exploratory effort to develop ecological risk assessment approaches to estimate potential chemical effects on non-target populations, we describe an approach for developing simple population models to estimate the extent to which acute effects on individual...

Using the Knowledge, Process, Practice (KPP) model for driving the design and development of online postgraduate medical education.

PubMed

Shaw, Tim; Barnet, Stewart; Mcgregor, Deborah; Avery, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Online learning is a primary delivery method for continuing health education programs. It is critical that programs have curricula objectives linked to educational models that support learning. Using a proven educational modelling process ensures that curricula objectives are met and a solid basis for learning and assessment is achieved. To develop an educational design model that produces an educationally sound program development plan for use by anyone involved in online course development. We have described the development of a generic educational model designed for continuing health education programs. The Knowledge, Process, Practice (KPP) model is founded on recognised educational theory and online education practice. This paper presents a step-by-step guide on using this model for program development that encases reliable learning and evaluation. The model supports a three-step approach, KPP, based on learning outcomes and supporting appropriate assessment activities. It provides a program structure for online or blended learning that is explicit, educationally defensible, and supports multiple assessment points for health professionals. The KPP model is based on best practice educational design using a structure that can be adapted for a variety of online or flexibly delivered postgraduate medical education programs.

QUANTITATIVE PROCEDURES FOR NEUROTOXICOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

In this project, previously published information on biologically based dose-response model for brain development was used to quantitatively evaluate critical neurodevelopmental processes, and to assess potential chemical impacts on early brain development. This model has been ex...

The HTA core model: a novel method for producing and reporting health technology assessments.

PubMed

Lampe, Kristian; Mäkelä, Marjukka; Garrido, Marcial Velasco; Anttila, Heidi; Autti-Rämö, Ilona; Hicks, Nicholas J; Hofmann, Björn; Koivisto, Juha; Kunz, Regina; Kärki, Pia; Malmivaara, Antti; Meiesaar, Kersti; Reiman-Möttönen, Päivi; Norderhaug, Inger; Pasternack, Iris; Ruano-Ravina, Alberto; Räsänen, Pirjo; Saalasti-Koskinen, Ulla; Saarni, Samuli I; Walin, Laura; Kristensen, Finn Børlum

2009-12-01

The aim of this study was to develop and test a generic framework to enable international collaboration for producing and sharing results of health technology assessments (HTAs). Ten international teams constructed the HTA Core Model, dividing information contained in a comprehensive HTA into standardized pieces, the assessment elements. Each element contains a generic issue that is translated into practical research questions while performing an assessment. Elements were described in detail in element cards. Two pilot assessments, designated as Core HTAs were also produced. The Model and Core HTAs were both validated. Guidance on the use of the HTA Core Model was compiled into a Handbook. The HTA Core Model considers health technologies through nine domains. Two applications of the Model were developed, one for medical and surgical interventions and another for diagnostic technologies. Two Core HTAs were produced in parallel with developing the model, providing the first real-life testing of the Model and input for further development. The results of formal validation and public feedback were primarily positive. Development needs were also identified and considered. An online Handbook is available. The HTA Core Model is a novel approach to HTA. It enables effective international production and sharing of HTA results in a structured format. The face validity of the Model was confirmed during the project, but further testing and refining are needed to ensure optimal usefulness and user-friendliness. Core HTAs are intended to serve as a basis for local HTA reports. Core HTAs do not contain recommendations on technology use.

A Model Process for Institutional Goals-Setting. A Module of the Needs Assessment Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Maxwell C.; And Others

A goals-setting model for the community/junior college that would interface with the community needs assessment model was developed, using as the survey instrument the Institutional Goals Inventory (I.G.I.) developed by the Educational Testing Service. The nine steps in the model are: Establish Committee on College Goals and Identify Goals Project…

Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

2011-12-01

To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mou, J.I.; King, C.

The focus of this study is to develop a sensor fused process modeling and control methodology to model, assess, and then enhance the performance of a hexapod machine for precision product realization. Deterministic modeling technique was used to derive models for machine performance assessment and enhancement. Sensor fusion methodology was adopted to identify the parameters of the derived models. Empirical models and computational algorithms were also derived and implemented to model, assess, and then enhance the machine performance. The developed sensor fusion algorithms can be implemented on a PC-based open architecture controller to receive information from various sensors, assess themore » status of the process, determine the proper action, and deliver the command to actuators for task execution. This will enhance a hexapod machine`s capability to produce workpieces within the imposed dimensional tolerances.« less

NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sources. This national-scale effort will be initiated for the base year 1996 and repeated every three years thereafter to track trends and inform program development. Provide broad-scale understanding of inhalation risks for a subset of atmospherically-emitted air toxics to inform further data-gathering efforts and priority-setting for the EPA's Air Toxics Programs.

Seismic hazard assessment of Oregon highway truck routes.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-06-01

This research project developed a seismic risk assessment model along the major truck routes in Oregon. The study had adopted federally : developed software tools called Risk for Earthquake Damage to Roadway Systems (REDARS2) and HAZUS-MH. The model ...

How Adverse Outcome Pathways Can Aid the Development and Use of Computational Prediction Models for Regulatory Toxicology.

PubMed

Wittwehr, Clemens; Aladjov, Hristo; Ankley, Gerald; Byrne, Hugh J; de Knecht, Joop; Heinzle, Elmar; Klambauer, Günter; Landesmann, Brigitte; Luijten, Mirjam; MacKay, Cameron; Maxwell, Gavin; Meek, M E Bette; Paini, Alicia; Perkins, Edward; Sobanski, Tomasz; Villeneuve, Dan; Waters, Katrina M; Whelan, Maurice

2017-02-01

Efforts are underway to transform regulatory toxicology and chemical safety assessment from a largely empirical science based on direct observation of apical toxicity outcomes in whole organism toxicity tests to a predictive one in which outcomes and risk are inferred from accumulated mechanistic understanding. The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework provides a systematic approach for organizing knowledge that may support such inference. Likewise, computational models of biological systems at various scales provide another means and platform to integrate current biological understanding to facilitate inference and extrapolation. We argue that the systematic organization of knowledge into AOP frameworks can inform and help direct the design and development of computational prediction models that can further enhance the utility of mechanistic and in silico data for chemical safety assessment. This concept was explored as part of a workshop on AOP-Informed Predictive Modeling Approaches for Regulatory Toxicology held September 24-25, 2015. Examples of AOP-informed model development and its application to the assessment of chemicals for skin sensitization and multiple modes of endocrine disruption are provided. The role of problem formulation, not only as a critical phase of risk assessment, but also as guide for both AOP and complementary model development is described. Finally, a proposal for actively engaging the modeling community in AOP-informed computational model development is made. The contents serve as a vision for how AOPs can be leveraged to facilitate development of computational prediction models needed to support the next generation of chemical safety assessment. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology.

Index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models using hydrogeological settings: A critical evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Prashant, E-mail: prashantkumar@csio.res.in; Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030; Bansod, Baban K.S.

2015-02-15

Groundwater vulnerability maps are useful for decision making in land use planning and water resource management. This paper reviews the various groundwater vulnerability assessment models developed across the world. Each model has been evaluated in terms of its pros and cons and the environmental conditions of its application. The paper further discusses the validation techniques used for the generated vulnerability maps by various models. Implicit challenges associated with the development of the groundwater vulnerability assessment models have also been identified with scientific considerations to the parameter relations and their selections. - Highlights: • Various index-based groundwater vulnerability assessment models havemore » been discussed. • A comparative analysis of the models and its applicability in different hydrogeological settings has been discussed. • Research problems of underlying vulnerability assessment models are also reported in this review paper.« less

Hydrologic modeling for water resource assessment in a developing country: the Rwanda case study

Treesearch

Steve McNulty; Erika Cohen Mack; Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell

2016-01-01

Accurate water resources assessment using hydrologic models can be a challenge anywhere, but particularly for developing countries with limited financial and technical resources. Developing countries could most benefit from the water resource planning capabilities that hydrologic models can provide, but these countries are least likely to have the data needed to run ...

Health impact assessment – A survey on quantifying tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de; Mekel, Odile C.L., E-mail: odile.mekel@lzg.nrw.de; Fintan Hurley, J., E-mail: fintan.hurley@iom-world.org

Integrating human health into prospective impact assessments is known to be challenging. This is true for both approaches: dedicated health impact assessments (HIA) as well as inclusion of health into more general impact assessments. Acknowledging the full range of participatory, qualitative, and quantitative approaches, this study focuses on the latter, especially on computational tools for quantitative health modelling. We conducted a survey among tool developers concerning the status quo of development and availability of such tools; experiences made with model usage in real-life situations; and priorities for further development. Responding toolmaker groups described 17 such tools, most of them beingmore » maintained and reported as ready for use and covering a wide range of topics, including risk & protective factors, exposures, policies, and health outcomes. In recent years, existing models have been improved and were applied in new ways, and completely new models emerged. There was high agreement among respondents on the need to further develop methods for assessment of inequalities and uncertainty. The contribution of quantitative modeling to health foresight would benefit from building joint strategies of further tool development, improving the visibility of quantitative tools and methods, and engaging continuously with actual and potential users. - Highlights: • A survey investigated computational tools for health impact quantification. • Formal evaluation of such tools has been rare. • Handling inequalities and uncertainties are priority areas for further development. • Health foresight would benefit from tool developers and users forming a community. • Joint development strategies across computational tools are needed.« less

Source-term development for a contaminant plume for use by multimedia risk assessment models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whelan, Gene; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.

1999-12-01

Multimedia modelers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to conduct a comprehensive and quantitative benchmarking analysis of four intermedia models: DOE's Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), EPA's MMSOILS, EPA's PRESTO, and DOE's RESidual RADioactivity (RESRAD). These models represent typical analytically, semi-analytically, and empirically based tools that are utilized in human risk and endangerment assessments for use at installations containing radioactive and/or hazardous contaminants. Although the benchmarking exercise traditionally emphasizes the application and comparison of these models, the establishment of a Conceptual Site Model (CSM) should be viewed with equalmore » importance. This paper reviews an approach for developing a CSM of an existing, real-world, Sr-90 plume at DOE's Hanford installation in Richland, Washington, for use in a multimedia-based benchmarking exercise bet ween MEPAS, MMSOILS, PRESTO, and RESRAD. In an unconventional move for analytically based modeling, the benchmarking exercise will begin with the plume as the source of contamination. The source and release mechanism are developed and described within the context of performing a preliminary risk assessment utilizing these analytical models. By beginning with the plume as the source term, this paper reviews a typical process and procedure an analyst would follow in developing a CSM for use in a preliminary assessment using this class of analytical tool.« less

Automated Assessment of Child Vocalization Development Using LENA.

PubMed

Richards, Jeffrey A; Xu, Dongxin; Gilkerson, Jill; Yapanel, Umit; Gray, Sharmistha; Paul, Terrance

2017-07-12

To produce a novel, efficient measure of children's expressive vocal development on the basis of automatic vocalization assessment (AVA), child vocalizations were automatically identified and extracted from audio recordings using Language Environment Analysis (LENA) System technology. Assessment was based on full-day audio recordings collected in a child's unrestricted, natural language environment. AVA estimates were derived using automatic speech recognition modeling techniques to categorize and quantify the sounds in child vocalizations (e.g., protophones and phonemes). These were expressed as phone and biphone frequencies, reduced to principal components, and inputted to age-based multiple linear regression models to predict independently collected criterion-expressive language scores. From these models, we generated vocal development AVA estimates as age-standardized scores and development age estimates. AVA estimates demonstrated strong statistical reliability and validity when compared with standard criterion expressive language assessments. Automated analysis of child vocalizations extracted from full-day recordings in natural settings offers a novel and efficient means to assess children's expressive vocal development. More research remains to identify specific mechanisms of operation.

Defining Strategic and Excellence Bases for the Development of Portuguese Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosa, Maria Joao; Saraiva, Pedro M.; Diz, Henrique

2005-01-01

A self-assessment model was developed for the Portuguese higher education institutions (HEIs) which was based on an empirical study aiming at better understanding their strategic and quality management and innovation practices and tools and on the study of several quality assessment models developed both for HEIs and business organisations. From…

[A reliability growth assessment method and its application in the development of equipment in space cabin].

PubMed

Chen, J D; Sun, H L

1999-04-01

Objective. To assess and predict reliability of an equipment dynamically by making full use of various test informations in the development of products. Method. A new reliability growth assessment method based on army material system analysis activity (AMSAA) model was developed. The method is composed of the AMSAA model and test data conversion technology. Result. The assessment and prediction results of a space-borne equipment conform to its expectations. Conclusion. It is suggested that this method should be further researched and popularized.

Framework for Uncertainty Assessment - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergeron, M. P.; Cole, C. R.; Murray, C. J.; Thorne, P. D.; Wurstner, S. K.

2002-05-01

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is in the process of development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology for use in future site assessments that addresses parameter uncertainty as well as uncertainties related to the groundwater conceptual model. The long-term goals of the effort are development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology for use in future assessments and analyses being made with the Hanford site-wide groundwater model. The basic approach in the framework developed for uncertainty assessment consists of: 1) Alternate conceptual model (ACM) identification to identify and document the major features and assumptions of each conceptual model. The process must also include a periodic review of the existing and proposed new conceptual models as data or understanding become available. 2) ACM development of each identified conceptual model through inverse modeling with historical site data. 3) ACM evaluation to identify which of conceptual models are plausible and should be included in any subsequent uncertainty assessments. 4) ACM uncertainty assessments will only be carried out for those ACMs determined to be plausible through comparison with historical observations and model structure identification measures. The parameter uncertainty assessment process generally involves: a) Model Complexity Optimization - to identify the important or relevant parameters for the uncertainty analysis; b) Characterization of Parameter Uncertainty - to develop the pdfs for the important uncertain parameters including identification of any correlations among parameters; c) Propagation of Uncertainty - to propagate parameter uncertainties (e.g., by first order second moment methods if applicable or by a Monte Carlo approach) through the model to determine the uncertainty in the model predictions of interest. 5)Estimation of combined ACM and scenario uncertainty by a double sum with each component of the inner sum (an individual CCDF) representing parameter uncertainty associated with a particular scenario and ACM and the outer sum enumerating the various plausible ACM and scenario combinations in order to represent the combined estimate of uncertainty (a family of CCDFs). A final important part of the framework includes identification, enumeration, and documentation of all the assumptions, which include those made during conceptual model development, required by the mathematical model, required by the numerical model, made during the spatial and temporal descretization process, needed to assign the statistical model and associated parameters that describe the uncertainty in the relevant input parameters, and finally those assumptions required by the propagation method. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC06-76RL01830.

Integrated performance and reliability specification for digital avionics systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brehm, Eric W.; Goettge, Robert T.

1995-01-01

This paper describes an automated tool for performance and reliability assessment of digital avionics systems, called the Automated Design Tool Set (ADTS). ADTS is based on an integrated approach to design assessment that unifies traditional performance and reliability views of system designs, and that addresses interdependencies between performance and reliability behavior via exchange of parameters and result between mathematical models of each type. A multi-layer tool set architecture has been developed for ADTS that separates the concerns of system specification, model generation, and model solution. Performance and reliability models are generated automatically as a function of candidate system designs, and model results are expressed within the system specification. The layered approach helps deal with the inherent complexity of the design assessment process, and preserves long-term flexibility to accommodate a wide range of models and solution techniques within the tool set structure. ADTS research and development to date has focused on development of a language for specification of system designs as a basis for performance and reliability evaluation. A model generation and solution framework has also been developed for ADTS, that will ultimately encompass an integrated set of analytic and simulated based techniques for performance, reliability, and combined design assessment.

Genetically modified plants and food hypersensitivity diseases: usage and implications of experimental models for risk assessment.

PubMed

Prescott, Vanessa E; Hogan, Simon P

2006-08-01

The recent advances in biotechnology in the plant industry have led to increasing crop production and yield that in turn has increased the usage of genetically modified (GM) food in the human food chain. The usage of GM foods for human consumption has raised a number of fundamental questions including the ability of GM foods to elicit potentially harmful immunological responses, including allergic hypersensitivity. To assess the safety of foods derived from GM plants including allergenic potential, the US FDA, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)/World Health Organization (WHO), and the EU have developed approaches for evaluation assessment. One assessment approach that has been a very active area of research and debate is the development and usage of animal models to assess the potential allergenicity of GM foods. A number of specific animal models employing rodents, pigs, and dogs have been developed for allergenicity assessment. However, validation of these models is needed and consideration of the criteria for an appropriate animal model for the assessment of allergenicity in GM plants is required. We have recently employed a BALB/c mouse model to assess the potential allergenicity of GM plants. We have been able to demonstrate that this model is able to detect differences in antigenicity and identify aspects of protein post-translational modifications that can alter antigenicity. Furthermore, this model has also enabled us to examine the usage of GM plants as a therapeutic approach for the treatment of allergic diseases. This review discusses the current approaches to assess the allergenic potential of GM food and particularly focusing on the usage of animal models to determine the potential allergenicity of GM foods and gives an overview of our recent findings and implications of these studies.

Validation of Risk Assessment Models of Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Medical Patients.

PubMed

Greene, M Todd; Spyropoulos, Alex C; Chopra, Vineet; Grant, Paul J; Kaatz, Scott; Bernstein, Steven J; Flanders, Scott A

2016-09-01

Patients hospitalized for acute medical illness are at increased risk for venous thromboembolism. Although risk assessment is recommended and several at-admission risk assessment models have been developed, these have not been adequately derived or externally validated. Therefore, an optimal approach to evaluate venous thromboembolism risk in medical patients is not known. We conducted an external validation study of existing venous thromboembolism risk assessment models using data collected on 63,548 hospitalized medical patients as part of the Michigan Hospital Medicine Safety (HMS) Consortium. For each patient, cumulative venous thromboembolism risk scores and risk categories were calculated. Cox regression models were used to quantify the association between venous thromboembolism events and assigned risk categories. Model discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-index. Venous thromboembolism incidence in hospitalized medical patients is low (1%). Although existing risk assessment models demonstrate good calibration (hazard ratios for "at-risk" range 2.97-3.59), model discrimination is generally poor for all risk assessment models (C-index range 0.58-0.64). The performance of several existing risk assessment models for predicting venous thromboembolism among acutely ill, hospitalized medical patients at admission is limited. Given the low venous thromboembolism incidence in this nonsurgical patient population, careful consideration of how best to utilize existing venous thromboembolism risk assessment models is necessary, and further development and validation of novel venous thromboembolism risk assessment models for this patient population may be warranted. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Milestone-specific, Observed data points for evaluating levels of performance (MODEL) assessment strategy for anesthesiology residency programs.

PubMed

Nagy, Christopher J; Fitzgerald, Brian M; Kraus, Gregory P

2014-01-01

Anesthesiology residency programs will be expected to have Milestones-based evaluation systems in place by July 2014 as part of the Next Accreditation System. The San Antonio Uniformed Services Health Education Consortium (SAUSHEC) anesthesiology residency program developed and implemented a Milestones-based feedback and evaluation system a year ahead of schedule. It has been named the Milestone-specific, Observed Data points for Evaluating Levels of performance (MODEL) assessment strategy. The "MODEL Menu" and the "MODEL Blueprint" are tools that other anesthesiology residency programs can use in developing their own Milestones-based feedback and evaluation systems prior to ACGME-required implementation. Data from our early experience with the streamlined MODEL blueprint assessment strategy showed substantially improved faculty compliance with reporting requirements. The MODEL assessment strategy provides programs with a workable assessment method for residents, and important Milestones data points to programs for ACGME reporting.

Assessing the feasibility, cost, and utility of developing models of human performance in aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stillwell, William

1990-01-01

The purpose of the effort outlined in this briefing was to determine whether models exist or can be developed that can be used to address aviation automation issues. A multidisciplinary team has been assembled to undertake this effort, including experts in human performance, team/crew, and aviation system modeling, and aviation data used as input to such models. The project consists of two phases, a requirements assessment phase that is designed to determine the feasibility and utility of alternative modeling efforts, and a model development and evaluation phase that will seek to implement the plan (if a feasible cost effective development effort is found) that results from the first phase. Viewgraphs are given.

Review of early assessment models of innovative medical technologies.

PubMed

Fasterholdt, Iben; Krahn, Murray; Kidholm, Kristian; Yderstræde, Knud Bonnet; Pedersen, Kjeld Møller

2017-08-01

Hospitals increasingly make decisions regarding the early development of and investment in technologies, but a formal evaluation model for assisting hospitals early on in assessing the potential of innovative medical technologies is lacking. This article provides an overview of models for early assessment in different health organisations and discusses which models hold most promise for hospital decision makers. A scoping review of published studies between 1996 and 2015 was performed using nine databases. The following information was collected: decision context, decision problem, and a description of the early assessment model. 2362 articles were identified and 12 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. An additional 12 studies were identified and included in the review by searching reference lists. The majority of the 24 early assessment studies were variants of traditional cost-effectiveness analysis. Around one fourth of the studies presented an evaluation model with a broader focus than cost-effectiveness. Uncertainty was mostly handled by simple sensitivity or scenario analysis. This review shows that evaluation models using known methods assessing cost-effectiveness are most prevalent in early assessment, but seems ill-suited for early assessment in hospitals. Four models provided some usable elements for the development of a hospital-based model. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing pesticide risks to threatened and endangered species using population models: Findings and recommendations from a CropLife America Science Forum.

PubMed

Forbes, V E; Brain, R; Edwards, D; Galic, N; Hall, T; Honegger, J; Meyer, C; Moore, D R J; Nacci, D; Pastorok, R; Preuss, T G; Railsback, S F; Salice, C; Sibly, R M; Tenhumberg, B; Thorbek, P; Wang, M

2015-07-01

This brief communication reports on the main findings and recommendations from the 2014 Science Forum organized by CropLife America. The aim of the Forum was to gain a better understanding of the current status of population models and how they could be used in ecological risk assessments for threatened and endangered species potentially exposed to pesticides in the United States. The Forum panelists' recommendations are intended to assist the relevant government agencies with implementation of population modeling in future endangered species risk assessments for pesticides. The Forum included keynote presentations that provided an overview of current practices, highlighted the findings of a recent National Academy of Sciences report and its implications, reviewed the main categories of existing population models and the types of risk expressions that can be produced as model outputs, and provided examples of how population models are currently being used in different legislative contexts. The panel concluded that models developed for listed species assessments should provide quantitative risk estimates, incorporate realistic variability in environmental and demographic factors, integrate complex patterns of exposure and effects, and use baseline conditions that include present factors that have caused the species to be listed (e.g., habitat loss, invasive species) or have resulted in positive management action. Furthermore, the panel advocates for the formation of a multipartite advisory committee to provide best available knowledge and guidance related to model implementation and use, to address such needs as more systematic collection, digitization, and dissemination of data for listed species; consideration of the newest developments in good modeling practice; comprehensive review of existing population models and their applicability for listed species assessments; and development of case studies using a few well-tested models for particular species to demonstrate proof of concept. To advance our common goals, the panel recommends the following as important areas for further research and development: quantitative analysis of the causes of species listings to guide model development; systematic assessment of the relative role of toxicity versus other factors in driving pesticide risk; additional study of how interactions between density dependence and pesticides influence risk; and development of pragmatic approaches to assessing indirect effects of pesticides on listed species. © 2015 SETAC.

Assessing the Teaching and Student Learning Outcomes of the Katz/Henry Faculty Development Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finkelstein, Martin

The impact of the Katz/Henry Faculty Development Model on teaching behaviors and student learning outcomes was assessed with 24 faculty members at 4 institutions in New Jersey. This model, known as "Partners in Learning" involved: faculty pairs who observe one another's class, partner meetings to discuss shared experience in the…

RAPID ASSESSMENT OF URBAN WETLANDS: FUNCTIONAL ASSESSMENT MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this study was to test the ability of existing hydrogeomorphic (HGM) functional assessment models and our own proposed models to predict rates of nitrate production and removal, functions critical to water quality protection, in forested riparian wetlands in nort...

Technology evaluation, assessment, modeling, and simulation: the TEAMS capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, Orgal T.; Stiegler, Robert L.

1998-08-01

The United States Marine Corps' Technology Evaluation, Assessment, Modeling and Simulation (TEAMS) capability, located at the Naval Surface Warfare Center in Dahlgren Virginia, provides an environment for detailed test, evaluation, and assessment of live and simulated sensor and sensor-to-shooter systems for the joint warfare community. Frequent use of modeling and simulation allows for cost effective testing, bench-marking, and evaluation of various levels of sensors and sensor-to-shooter engagements. Interconnectivity to live, instrumented equipment operating in real battle space environments and to remote modeling and simulation facilities participating in advanced distributed simulations (ADS) exercises is available to support a wide- range of situational assessment requirements. TEAMS provides a valuable resource for a variety of users. Engineers, analysts, and other technology developers can use TEAMS to evaluate, assess and analyze tactical relevant phenomenological data on tactical situations. Expeditionary warfare and USMC concept developers can use the facility to support and execute advanced warfighting experiments (AWE) to better assess operational maneuver from the sea (OMFTS) concepts, doctrines, and technology developments. Developers can use the facility to support sensor system hardware, software and algorithm development as well as combat development, acquisition, and engineering processes. Test and evaluation specialists can use the facility to plan, assess, and augment their processes. This paper presents an overview of the TEAMS capability and focuses specifically on the technical challenges associated with the integration of live sensor hardware into a synthetic environment and how those challenges are being met. Existing sensors, recent experiments and facility specifications are featured.

Land use regression models to assess air pollution exposure in Mexico City using finer spatial and temporal input parameters.

PubMed

Son, Yeongkwon; Osornio-Vargas, Álvaro R; O'Neill, Marie S; Hystad, Perry; Texcalac-Sangrador, José L; Ohman-Strickland, Pamela; Meng, Qingyu; Schwander, Stephan

2018-05-17

The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) is one of the largest and most populated urban environments in the world and experiences high air pollution levels. To develop models that estimate pollutant concentrations at fine spatiotemporal scales and provide improved air pollution exposure assessments for health studies in Mexico City. We developed finer spatiotemporal land use regression (LUR) models for PM 2.5 , PM 10 , O 3 , NO 2 , CO and SO 2 using mixed effect models with the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). Hourly traffic density was included as a temporal variable besides meteorological and holiday variables. Models of hourly, daily, monthly, 6-monthly and annual averages were developed and evaluated using traditional and novel indices. The developed spatiotemporal LUR models yielded predicted concentrations with good spatial and temporal agreements with measured pollutant levels except for the hourly PM 2.5 , PM 10 and SO 2 . Most of the LUR models met performance goals based on the standardized indices. LUR models with temporal scales greater than one hour were successfully developed using mixed effect models with LASSO and showed superior model performance compared to earlier LUR models, especially for time scales of a day or longer. The newly developed LUR models will be further refined with ongoing Mexico City air pollution sampling campaigns to improve personal exposure assessments. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Moving beyond Assessment to Improving Students' Critical Thinking Skills: A Model for Implementing Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haynes, Ada; Lisic, Elizabeth; Goltz, Michele; Stein, Barry; Harris, Kevin

2016-01-01

This research examines how the use of the CAT (Critical thinking Assessment Test) and involvement in CAT-Apps (CAT Applications within the discipline) training can serve as an important part of a faculty development model that assists faculty in the assessment of students' critical thinking skills and in the development of these skills within…

Development and exemplification of a model for Teacher Assessment in Primary Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, D. J.; Earle, S.; McMahon, K.; Howe, A.; Collier, C.

2017-09-01

The Teacher Assessment in Primary Science project is funded by the Primary Science Teaching Trust and based at Bath Spa University. The study aims to develop a whole-school model of valid, reliable and manageable teacher assessment to inform practice and make a positive impact on primary-aged children's learning in science. The model is based on a data-flow 'pyramid' (analogous to the flow of energy through an ecosystem), whereby the rich formative assessment evidence gathered in the classroom is summarised for monitoring, reporting and evaluation purposes [Nuffield Foundation. (2012). Developing policy, principles and practice in primary school science assessment. London: Nuffield Foundation]. Using a design-based research (DBR) methodology, the authors worked in collaboration with teachers from project schools and other expert groups to refine, elaborate, validate and operationalise the data-flow 'pyramid' model, resulting in the development of a whole-school self-evaluation tool. In this paper, we argue that a DBR approach to theory-building and school improvement drawing upon teacher expertise has led to the identification, adaptation and successful scaling up of a promising approach to school self-evaluation in relation to assessment in science.

Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Challinor, Andrew J; Müller, Christoph; Asseng, Senthold; Deva, Chetan; Nicklin, Kathryn Jane; Wallach, Daniel; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Whitfield, Stephen; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin

2018-01-01

Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions underlying these ranges are not always clear. We suggest that the contingency of results upon assumptions is made explicit via a common uncertainty reporting format; and/or that studies are assessed against a set of criteria, such as those presented in this paper.

Development and Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Computer-Assisted Physics Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rahman, Mohd. Jasmy Abd; Ismail, Mohd. Arif. Hj.; Nasir, Muhammad

2014-01-01

This study aims to design and develop an interactive software for teaching and learning physics about motion and vectors analysis. This study also assesses its effectiveness in classroom and assesses the learning motivation of SMA Pekanbaru's students. The software is developed using ADDIE Model design and Life Cycle Model and built using the…

The development and testing of a skin tear risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Newall, Nelly; Lewin, Gill F; Bulsara, Max K; Carville, Keryln J; Leslie, Gavin D; Roberts, Pam A

2017-02-01

The aim of the present study is to develop a reliable and valid skin tear risk assessment tool. The six characteristics identified in a previous case control study as constituting the best risk model for skin tear development were used to construct a risk assessment tool. The ability of the tool to predict skin tear development was then tested in a prospective study. Between August 2012 and September 2013, 1466 tertiary hospital patients were assessed at admission and followed up for 10 days to see if they developed a skin tear. The predictive validity of the tool was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. When the tool was found not to have performed as well as hoped, secondary analyses were performed to determine whether a potentially better performing risk model could be identified. The tool was found to have high sensitivity but low specificity and therefore have inadequate predictive validity. Secondary analysis of the combined data from this and the previous case control study identified an alternative better performing risk model. The tool developed and tested in this study was found to have inadequate predictive validity. The predictive validity of an alternative, more parsimonious model now needs to be tested. © 2015 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Early warning and crop condition assessment research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.

1986-01-01

The Early Warning Crop Condition Assessment Project of AgRISTARS was a multiagency and multidisciplinary effort. Its mission and objectives were centered around development and testing of remote-sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for global crop-condition assessments. The project developed crop stress indicators models that provide data filter and alert capabilities for monitoring global agricultural conditions. The project developed a technique for using NOAA-n satellite advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for operational crop-condition assessments. This technology was transferred to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA. The project developed a U.S. Great Plains data base that contains various meteorological parameters and vegetative index numbers (VIN) derived from AVHRR satellite data. It developed cloud screening techniques and scan angle correction models for AVHRR data. It also developed technology for using remotely acquired thermal data for crop water stress indicator modeling. The project provided basic technology including spectral characteristics of soils, water, stressed and nonstressed crop and range vegetation, solar zenith angle, and atmospheric and canopy structure effects.

MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION FOR ASSESSING HUMAN EXPOSURE AND DOSE TO TOXIC CHEMICALS AND POLLUTANTS

EPA Science Inventory

This project aims to strengthen the general scientific foundation of EPA's exposure and risk assessment processes by developing state-of-the-art exposure to dose computational models. This research will produce physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) and pharmacodynamic (PD)...

The interpersonal relationship in clinical practice. The Barrett-Lennard Relationship Inventory as an assessment instrument.

PubMed

Simmons, J; Roberge, L; Kendrick, S B; Richards, B

1995-03-01

The biomedical model that has long been central to medical practice is gradually being expanded to a broader biopsychosocial model. Relationship-building skills commensurate with the new paradigm need to be understood by educators and taught to medical practitioners. The person-centered, or humanistic, model of psychologist Carl Rogers provides a theoretical approach for the development of effective biopsychosocial relationships. The Barrett-Lennard Relationship Inventory (BLRI) was developed in 1962 as an assessment instrument for the person-centered model. In this article, the person-centered model and the use of the BLRI as an assessment instrument of this model are discussed. Current and potential uses of the BLRI are explored.

42 CFR 81.10 - Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP... Risk Models Used To Estimate Probability of Causation § 81.10 Use of cancer risk assessment models in... tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality risk among the Japanese atomic bomb survivor...

42 CFR 81.10 - Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP... Risk Models Used To Estimate Probability of Causation § 81.10 Use of cancer risk assessment models in... tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality risk among the Japanese atomic bomb survivor...

42 CFR 81.10 - Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP... Risk Models Used To Estimate Probability of Causation § 81.10 Use of cancer risk assessment models in... tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality risk among the Japanese atomic bomb survivor...

42 CFR 81.10 - Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Use of cancer risk assessment models in NIOSH IREP... Risk Models Used To Estimate Probability of Causation § 81.10 Use of cancer risk assessment models in... tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality risk among the Japanese atomic bomb survivor...

Cumulative Impact Assessment: Approaching Environmental Capacity in Development Area Using Environmental Impact Assessment Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, N.; Lee, M. J.; Maeng, J. H.

2017-12-01

Environmental impact assessment estimates the impact of development as a business unit and establishes mitigation plan. If the development is done, its economic effects can spread to the nearby areas. So that various developments can be distributed at different time intervals. The impact of the new developments can be combined with existing environmental impacts and can have a larger impact. That is, Cumulative impact assessment is needed to consider the environmental capacity of the Nearby area. Cumulative impact assessments require policy tools such as environmental impact assessment information and cumulative impact estimation models. In Korea, environmental information (water quality, air quality, etc.) of the development site is measured for environmental impact assessment and monitored for a certain period (generally 5 years) after the project. In addition, by constructing the environmental information as a spatial database, it is possible to express the environmental impact on a regional basis spatially and to intuitively use it for development site selection. Utilizing a composite model of environmental impact assessment information and Remote Sensing data for cumulative impact estimation, That can be used as a policy decision support tool that provides quantitative information for development area management, such as time series effect and sprawl phenomenon.

Review and developments of dissemination models for airborne carbon fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elber, W.

1980-01-01

Dissemination prediction models were reviewed to determine their applicability to a risk assessment for airborne carbon fibers. The review showed that the Gaussian prediction models using partial reflection at the ground agreed very closely with a more elaborate diffusion analysis developed for the study. For distances beyond 10,000 m the Gaussian models predicted a slower fall-off in exposure levels than the diffusion models. This resulting level of conservatism was preferred for the carbon fiber risk assessment. The results also showed that the perfect vertical-mixing models developed herein agreed very closely with the diffusion analysis for all except the most stable atmospheric conditions.

Bayesian Model Development for Analysis of Open Source Information to Support the Assessment of Nuclear Programs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gastelum, Zoe N.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

2013-07-15

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has spent several years researching, developing, and validating large Bayesian network models to support integration of open source data sets for nuclear proliferation research. Our current work focuses on generating a set of interrelated models for multi-source assessment of nuclear programs, as opposed to a single comprehensive model. By using this approach, we can break down the models to cover logical sub-problems that can utilize different expertise and data sources. This approach allows researchers to utilize the models individually or in combination to detect and characterize a nuclear program and identify data gaps. The models operatemore » at various levels of granularity, covering a combination of state-level assessments with more detailed models of site or facility characteristics. This paper will describe the current open source-driven, nuclear nonproliferation models under development, the pros and cons of the analytical approach, and areas for additional research.« less

Watershed Modeling to Assess the Sensitivity of Streamflow, Nutrient, and Sediment Loads to Potential Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

In September 2013, EPA announced the release of the final report, Watershed Modeling to Assess the Sensitivity of Streamflow, Nutrient, and Sediment Loads to Potential Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds.

Watershed modeling was conducted in ...

DEVELOPMENT AND REVIEW OF MONITORING METHODS AND RISK ASSESSMENT MODELS USED TO DETERMINE THE EFFECTS OF BIOSOLIDS LAND APPLICATION ON HUMAN HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Development and Review of monitoring methods and risk assessment models for biosolids land application impacts on air and land

Ronald F Herrmann (NRMRL), Mike Broder (NCEA), and Mike Ware (NERL)

Science Questions .

MYP Science Question: What additional model...

Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Launch Complex 39 (LC-39) Gaseous Hydrogen (GH2) Vent Arm Behavior Prediction Model Review Technical Assessment Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Timmy R.; Beech, Geoffrey; Johnston, Ian

2009-01-01

The NESC Assessment Team reviewed a computer simulation of the LC-39 External Tank (ET) GH2 Vent Umbilical system developed by United Space Alliance (USA) for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) and designated KSC Analytical Tool ID 451 (KSC AT-451). The team verified that the vent arm kinematics were correctly modeled, but noted that there were relevant system sensitivities. Also, the structural stiffness used in the math model varied somewhat from the analytic calculations. Results of the NESC assessment were communicated to the model developers.

Model prototype utilization in the analysis of fault tolerant control and data processing systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalev, I. V.; Tsarev, R. Yu; Gruzenkin, D. V.; Prokopenko, A. V.; Knyazkov, A. N.; Laptenok, V. D.

2016-04-01

The procedure assessing the profit of control and data processing system implementation is presented in the paper. The reasonability of model prototype creation and analysis results from the implementing of the approach of fault tolerance provision through the inclusion of structural and software assessment redundancy. The developed procedure allows finding the best ratio between the development cost and the analysis of model prototype and earnings from the results of this utilization and information produced. The suggested approach has been illustrated by the model example of profit assessment and analysis of control and data processing system.

Marine atmospheric effects on electro-optical systems performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Juergen H.; Hughes, Herbert G.

1990-09-01

For the past twelve years, a coordinated tri-service effort has been underway in the United States Department of Defense to provide an atmospheric effects assessment capability for existing and planned electro-optical (E0) systems. This paper reviews the exploratory development effort in the US Navy. A key responsibility for the Navy was the development of marine aerosol models. An initial model, the Navy Aerosol Model (NAN), was developed, tested, and transitioned into LOWTRAN 6. A more comprehensive model, the Navy Oceanic Vertical Aerosol Model (NOVAM), has been formulated and is presently undergoing comprehensive evaluation and testing. Marine aerosols and their extinction properties are only one important factor in EO systems performance assessment. For many EO systems applications, an accurate knowledge of marine background radiances is required in addition to considering the effects of the intervening atmosphere. Accordingly, a capability was developed to estimate the apparent sea surface radiance for different sea states and meteorological conditions. Also, an empirical relationship was developed which directly relates apparent mean sea temperature to calculated mean sky temperature. In situ measurements of relevant environmental parameters are essential for real-time EO systems performance assessment. Direct measurement of slant path extinction would be most desirable. This motivated a careful investigation of lidar (light detection and ranging) techniques including improvements to single-ended lidar profile inversion algorithms and development of new lidar techniques such as double-ended and dual-angle configurations. It was concluded that single-ended, single frequency lidars can not be used to infer slant path extinction with an accuracy necessary to make meaningful performance assessments. Other lidar configurations may find limited application in model validation and research efforts. No technique has emerged yet which could be considered ready for shipboard implementation. A shipboard real-time performance assessment system was developed and named PREOS (Performance and Range for EO Systems). PREOS has been incorporated into the Navy's Tactical Environmental Support System (TESS). The present version of PREOS is a first step in accomplishing the complex task of real-time systems performance assessment. Improved target and background models are under development and will be incorporated into TESS when tested and validated. A reliable assessment capability can be used to develop Tactical Decision Aids (TDAs). TDAs permit optimum selection or combination of sensors and estimation of a ship's own vulnerability against hostile systems.

Educational Diagnostic Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bejar, Isaac I.

1984-01-01

Approaches proposed for educational diagnostic assessment are reviewed and identified as deficit assessment and error analysis. The development of diagnostic instruments may require a reexamination of existing psychometric models and development of alternative ones. The psychometric and content demands of diagnostic assessment all but require test…

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joyner, James J., Sr.

2016-01-01

This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

New Dental Accreditation Standard on Critical Thinking: A Call for Learning Models, Outcomes, Assessments.

PubMed

Johnsen, David C; Williams, John N; Baughman, Pauletta Gay; Roesch, Darren M; Feldman, Cecile A

2015-10-01

This opinion article applauds the recent introduction of a new dental accreditation standard addressing critical thinking and problem-solving, but expresses a need for additional means for dental schools to demonstrate they are meeting the new standard because articulated outcomes, learning models, and assessments of competence are still being developed. Validated, research-based learning models are needed to define reference points against which schools can design and assess the education they provide to their students. This article presents one possible learning model for this purpose and calls for national experts from within and outside dental education to develop models that will help schools define outcomes and assess performance in educating their students to become practitioners who are effective critical thinkers and problem-solvers.

Development of a hydrologic connectivity dataset for SWAT assessments in the U.S.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Model based water quality assessments are as important informer of conservation and environmental policy in the US. The recently completed national scale Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) is being repeated using newer data, greater resolution, and enhanced models. National assessment...

Exploring Learning-Oriented Assessment Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carless, David

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a model of learning-oriented assessment to inform assessment theory and practice. The model focuses on three interrelated processes: the assessment tasks which students undertake; students' development of self-evaluative capacities; and student engagement with feedback. These three strands are explored through the analysis of…

A Suggested Model for Developing and Assessing Competence of Prospective Teachers in Faculties of Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alqiawi, Dalal A.; Ezzeldin, Sawsan M.

2015-01-01

Background: Competence assessment of teachers has long been a concern for teachers in the Faculties of Education. The decision makers have been looking for a model to assess the competence of prospective students. Tools and assessment models are used to gauge the competency of teachers in all disciplines. Objective: The present study aimed at…

A biosphere modeling methodology for dose assessments of the potential Yucca Mountain deep geological high level radioactive waste repository.

PubMed

Watkins, B M; Smith, G M; Little, R H; Kessler, J

1999-04-01

Recent developments in performance standards for proposed high level radioactive waste disposal at Yucca Mountain suggest that health risk or dose rate limits will likely be part of future standards. Approaches to the development of biosphere modeling and dose assessments for Yucca Mountain have been relatively lacking in previous performance assessments due to the absence of such a requirement. This paper describes a practical methodology used to develop a biosphere model appropriate for calculating doses from use of well water by hypothetical individuals due to discharges of contaminated groundwater into a deep well. The biosphere model methodology, developed in parallel with the BIOMOVS II international study, allows a transparent recording of the decisions at each step, from the specification of the biosphere assessment context through to model development and analysis of results. A list of features, events, and processes relevant to Yucca Mountain was recorded and an interaction matrix developed to help identify relationships between them. Special consideration was given to critical/potential exposure group issues and approaches. The conceptual model of the biosphere system was then developed, based on the interaction matrix, to show how radionuclides migrate and accumulate in the biosphere media and result in potential exposure pathways. A mathematical dose assessment model was specified using the flexible AMBER software application, which allows users to construct their own compartment models. The starting point for the biosphere calculations was a unit flux of each radionuclide from the groundwater in the geosphere into the drinking water in the well. For each of the 26 radionuclides considered, the most significant exposure pathways for hypothetical individuals were identified. For 14 of the radionuclides, the primary exposure pathways were identified as consumption of various crops and animal products following assumed agricultural use of the contaminated water derived from the deep well. Inhalation of dust (11 radionuclides) and external irradiation (1 radionuclide) were also identified as significant exposure modes. Contribution to the total flux to dose conversion factor from the drinking water pathway for each radionuclide was also assessed and for most radionuclides was found to be less than 10% of the total flux to dose conversion factor summed across all pathways. Some of the uncertainties related to the results were considered. The biosphere modeling results have been applied within an EPRI Total Systems Performance Assessment of Yucca Mountain. Conclusions and recommendations for future performance assessments are provided.

Development and Validation of Osteoporosis Risk-Assessment Model for Korean Men

PubMed Central

Oh, Sun Min; Song, Bo Mi; Nam, Byung-Ho; Rhee, Yumie; Moon, Seong-Hwan; Kim, Deog Young; Kang, Dae Ryong

2016-01-01

Purpose The aim of the present study was to develop an osteoporosis risk-assessment model to identify high-risk individuals among Korean men. Materials and Methods The study used data from 1340 and 1110 men ≥50 years who participated in the 2009 and 2010 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, respectively, for development and validation of an osteoporosis risk-assessment model. Osteoporosis was defined as T score ≤-2.5 at either the femoral neck or lumbar spine. Performance of the candidate models and the Osteoporosis Self-assessment Tool for Asian (OSTA) was compared with sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). A net reclassification improvement was further calculated to compare the developed Korean Osteoporosis Risk-Assessment Model for Men (KORAM-M) with OSTA. Results In the development dataset, the prevalence of osteoporosis was 8.1%. KORAM-M, consisting of age and body weight, had a sensitivity of 90.8%, a specificity of 42.4%, and an AUC of 0.666 with a cut-off score of -9. In the validation dataset, similar results were shown: sensitivity 87.9%, specificity 39.7%, and AUC 0.638. Additionally, risk categorization with KORAM-M showed improved reclassification over that of OSTA up to 22.8%. Conclusion KORAM-M can be simply used as a pre-screening tool to identify candidates for dual energy X-ray absorptiometry tests. PMID:26632400

Methods applied in cost-effectiveness models for treatment strategies in type 2 diabetes mellitus and their use in Health Technology Assessments: a systematic review of the literature from 2008 to 2013.

PubMed

Charokopou, M; Sabater, F J; Townsend, R; Roudaut, M; McEwan, P; Verheggen, B G

2016-01-01

To identify and compare health-economic models that were developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatments for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and their use within Health Technology Assessments (HTAs). In total, six commonly used databases were searched for articles published between October 2008 and January 2013, using a protocolized search strategy and inclusion criteria. The websites of HTA organizations in nine countries, and proceedings from five relevant conferences, were also reviewed. The identified new health-economic models were qualitatively assessed using six criteria that were developed based on technical components, and characteristics related to the disease or the treatments being assessed. Finally, the number of times the models were applied within HTA reports, published literature, and/or major conferences was determined. Thirteen new models were identified and reviewed in depth. Most of these were based on identical key data sources, and applied a similar model structure, either using Markov modeling or microsimulation techniques. The UKPDS equations and panel regressions were frequently used to estimate the occurrence of diabetes-related complications and the probability of developing risk factors in the long term. The qualitative assessment demonstrated that the CARDIFF, Sheffield T2DM and ECHO T2DM models seem technically equipped to appropriately assess the long-term health-economic consequences of chronic treatments for patients with T2DM. It was observed that the CORE model is the most widely described in literature and conferences, and the most often applied model within HTA submissions, followed by the CARDIFF and UKPDS models. This research provides an overview of T2DM models that were developed between 2008 and January 2013. The outcomes of the qualitative assessments, combined with frequent use in local reimbursement decisions, prove the applicability of the CORE, CARDIFF and UKPDS models to address decision problems related to the long-term clinical and economic consequences of new and existing T2DM treatments.

Zebrafish (Danio rerio) Models To Assess Acute, Developmental, And Neurodevelopmental Toxicity

EPA Science Inventory

Zebrafish (Danio rerio) acute, developmental, and neurodevelopmental model systems have been developed to assess both known and unknown environmental contaminants. Developmental toxicity is assessed using death and dysmorphology as endpoints, whereas neurodevelopmental toxicity ...

76 FR 69769 - Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-09

... assessments of site specific, generic, and process-oriented multimedia environmental models as they pertain to human and environmental health risk assessment. Multimedia model development and simulation supports...

Metrological traceability in education: A practical online system for measuring and managing middle school mathematics instruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres Irribarra, D.; Freund, R.; Fisher, W.; Wilson, M.

2015-02-01

Computer-based, online assessments modelled, designed, and evaluated for adaptively administered invariant measurement are uniquely suited to defining and maintaining traceability to standardized units in education. An assessment of this kind is embedded in the Assessing Data Modeling and Statistical Reasoning (ADM) middle school mathematics curriculum. Diagnostic information about middle school students' learning of statistics and modeling is provided via computer-based formative assessments for seven constructs that comprise a learning progression for statistics and modeling from late elementary through the middle school grades. The seven constructs are: Data Display, Meta-Representational Competence, Conceptions of Statistics, Chance, Modeling Variability, Theory of Measurement, and Informal Inference. The end product is a web-delivered system built with Ruby on Rails for use by curriculum development teams working with classroom teachers in designing, developing, and delivering formative assessments. The online accessible system allows teachers to accurately diagnose students' unique comprehension and learning needs in a common language of real-time assessment, logging, analysis, feedback, and reporting.

[Integrated Quality Management System (IQMS): a model for improving the quality of reproductive health care in rural Kenya].

PubMed

Herrler, Claudia; Bramesfeld, Anke; Brodowski, Marc; Prytherch, Helen; Marx, Irmgard; Nafula, Maureen; Richter-Aairijoki, Heide; Musyoka, Lucy; Marx, Michael; Szecsenyi, Joachim

2015-01-01

To develop a model aiming to improve the quality of services for reproductive health care in rural Kenya and designed to measure the quality of reproductive health services in such a way that allows these services to identify measures for improving their performance. The Integrated Quality Management System (IQMS) was developed on the basis of a pre-existing and validated model for quality promotion, namely the European Practice Assessment (EPA). The methodology for quality assessment and feedback of assessment results to the service teams was adopted from the EPA model. Quality assessment methodology included data assessment through staff, patient surveys and service visitation. Quality is assessed by indicators, and so indicators had to be developed that were appropriate for assessing reproductive health care in rural Kenya. A search of the Kenyan and international literature was conducted to identify potential indicators. These were then rated for their relevance and clarity by a panel of Kenyan experts. 260 indicators were rated as relevant and assigned to 29 quality dimensions and 5 domains. The implementation of IQMS in ten facilities showed that IQMS is a feasible model for assessing the quality of reproductive health services in rural Kenya. IQMS enables these services to identify quality improvement targets and necessary improvement measures. Both strengths and limitations of IQMS will be discussed. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Development of task network models of human performance in microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diaz, Manuel F.; Adam, Susan

1992-01-01

This paper discusses the utility of task-network modeling for quantifying human performance variability in microgravity. The data are gathered for: (1) improving current methodologies for assessing human performance and workload in the operational space environment; (2) developing tools for assessing alternative system designs; and (3) developing an integrated set of methodologies for the evaluation of performance degradation during extended duration spaceflight. The evaluation entailed an analysis of the Remote Manipulator System payload-grapple task performed on many shuttle missions. Task-network modeling can be used as a tool for assessing and enhancing human performance in man-machine systems, particularly for modeling long-duration manned spaceflight. Task-network modeling can be directed toward improving system efficiency by increasing the understanding of basic capabilities of the human component in the system and the factors that influence these capabilities.

High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

PubMed

de Baan, Laura; Curran, Michael; Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero; Hellweg, Stefanie; Koellner, Thomas

2015-02-17

Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.

Improving plant bioaccumulation science through consistent reporting of experimental data.

PubMed

Fantke, Peter; Arnot, Jon A; Doucette, William J

2016-10-01

Experimental data and models for plant bioaccumulation of organic contaminants play a crucial role for assessing the potential human and ecological risks associated with chemical use. Plants are receptor organisms and direct or indirect vectors for chemical exposures to all other organisms. As new experimental data are generated they are used to improve our understanding of plant-chemical interactions that in turn allows for the development of better scientific knowledge and conceptual and predictive models. The interrelationship between experimental data and model development is an ongoing, never-ending process needed to advance our ability to provide reliable quality information that can be used in various contexts including regulatory risk assessment. However, relatively few standard experimental protocols for generating plant bioaccumulation data are currently available and because of inconsistent data collection and reporting requirements, the information generated is often less useful than it could be for direct applications in chemical assessments and for model development and refinement. We review existing testing guidelines, common data reporting practices, and provide recommendations for revising testing guidelines and reporting requirements to improve bioaccumulation knowledge and models. This analysis provides a list of experimental parameters that will help to develop high quality datasets and support modeling tools for assessing bioaccumulation of organic chemicals in plants and ultimately addressing uncertainty in ecological and human health risk assessments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a lumbar EMG-based coactivation index for the assessment of complex dynamic tasks.

PubMed

Le, Peter; Aurand, Alexander; Walter, Benjamin A; Best, Thomas M; Khan, Safdar N; Mendel, Ehud; Marras, William S

2018-03-01

The objective of this study was to develop and test an EMG-based coactivation index and compare it to a coactivation index defined by a biologically assisted lumbar spine model to differentiate between tasks. The purpose was to provide a universal approach to assess coactivation of a multi-muscle system when a computational model is not accessible. The EMG-based index developed utilised anthropometric-defined muscle characteristics driven by torso kinematics and EMG. Muscles were classified as agonists/antagonists based upon 'simulated' moments of the muscles relative to the total 'simulated' moment. Different tasks were used to test the range of the index including lifting, pushing and Valsalva. Results showed that the EMG-based index was comparable to the index defined by a biologically assisted model (r 2  = 0.78). Overall, the EMG-based index provides a universal, usable method to assess the neuromuscular effort associated with coactivation for complex dynamic tasks when the benefit of a biomechanical model is not available. Practitioner Summary: A universal coactivation index for the lumbar spine was developed to assess complex dynamic tasks. This method was validated relative to a model-based index for use when a high-end computational model is not available. Its simplicity allows for fewer inputs and usability for assessment of task ergonomics and rehabilitation.

A new framework for modeling decentralized low impact developments using Soil and Water Assessment Tool

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessing the performance of Low Impact Development (LID) practices at a catchment scale is important in managing urban watersheds. Few modeling tools exist that are capable of explicitly representing the hydrological mechanisms of LIDs while considering the diverse land uses of urban watersheds. ...

A Model for Conducting and Assessing Interdisciplinary Undergraduate Dissertations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Engström, Henrik

2015-01-01

This paper presents an effort to create a unified model for conducting and assessing undergraduate dissertations, shared by all disciplines involved in computer game development at a Swedish university. Computer game development includes technology-oriented disciplines as well as disciplines with aesthetical traditions. The challenge has been to…

Analyzing the Impact of a Data Analysis Process to Improve Instruction Using a Collaborative Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Good, Rebecca B.

2006-01-01

The Data Collaborative Model (DCM) assembles assessment literacy, reflective practices, and professional development into a four-component process. The sub-components include assessing students, reflecting over data, professional dialogue, professional development for the teachers, interventions for students based on data results, and re-assessing…

Assessing Knowledge of Mathematical Equivalence: A Construct-Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rittle-Johnson, Bethany; Matthews, Percival G.; Taylor, Roger S.; McEldoon, Katherine L.

2011-01-01

Knowledge of mathematical equivalence, the principle that 2 sides of an equation represent the same value, is a foundational concept in algebra, and this knowledge develops throughout elementary and middle school. Using a construct-modeling approach, we developed an assessment of equivalence knowledge. Second through sixth graders (N = 175)…

Model Developments for Development of Improved Emissions Scenarios: Developing Purchasing-Power Parity Models, Analyzing Uncertainty, and Developing Data Sets for Gridded Integrated Assessment Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zili; Nordhaus, William

2009-03-19

In the duration of this project, we finished the main tasks set up in the initial proposal. These tasks include: setting up the basic platform in GAMS language for the new RICE 2007 model; testing various model structure of RICE 2007; incorporating PPP data set in the new RICE model; developing gridded data set for IA modeling.

Review of existing terrestrial bioaccumulation models and terrestrial bioaccumulation modeling needs for organic chemicals

EPA Science Inventory

Protocols for terrestrial bioaccumulation assessments are far less-developed than for aquatic systems. This manuscript reviews modeling approaches that can be used to assess the terrestrial bioaccumulation potential of commercial organic chemicals. Models exist for plant, inver...

Assessment Engineering Task Model Maps, Task Models and Templates as a New Way to Develop and Implement Test Specifications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luecht, Richard M.

2013-01-01

Assessment engineering is a new way to design and implement scalable, sustainable and ideally lower-cost solutions to the complexities of designing and developing tests. It represents a merger of sorts between cognitive task modeling and engineering design principles--a merger that requires some new thinking about the nature of score scales, item…

Assessing the Development of Cross-Cultural Competence in Soldiers

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

five stages of CQ development based on models from developmental psychology including Piaget’s Model of Cognitive Development ( Piaget , 1985) and...and competence development , the Stage Model of Cognitive Skill Acquisition (Ross et al., 2005), and the Bennett Developmental Model of... developmental stages of proficiency and expertise (see the Stage Model of Cognitive Development ). At this level, cross-cultural competence is highly refined and

Cohen's Kappa and classification table metrics 2.0: An ArcView 3.x extension for accuracy assessment of spatially explicit models

Treesearch

Jeff Jenness; J. Judson Wynne

2005-01-01

In the field of spatially explicit modeling, well-developed accuracy assessment methodologies are often poorly applied. Deriving model accuracy metrics have been possible for decades, but these calculations were made by hand or with the use of a spreadsheet application. Accuracy assessments may be useful for: (1) ascertaining the quality of a model; (2) improving model...

Higher Education Quality Assessment Model: Towards Achieving Educational Quality Standard

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Noaman, Amin Y.; Ragab, Abdul Hamid M.; Madbouly, Ayman I.; Khedra, Ahmed M.; Fayoumi, Ayman G.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a developed higher education quality assessment model (HEQAM) that can be applied for enhancement of university services. This is because there is no universal unified quality standard model that can be used to assess the quality criteria of higher education institutes. The analytical hierarchy process is used to identify the…

A new framework to enhance the interpretation of external validation studies of clinical prediction models.

PubMed

Debray, Thomas P A; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Koffijberg, Hendrik; Nieboer, Daan; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Moons, Karel G M

2015-03-01

It is widely acknowledged that the performance of diagnostic and prognostic prediction models should be assessed in external validation studies with independent data from "different but related" samples as compared with that of the development sample. We developed a framework of methodological steps and statistical methods for analyzing and enhancing the interpretation of results from external validation studies of prediction models. We propose to quantify the degree of relatedness between development and validation samples on a scale ranging from reproducibility to transportability by evaluating their corresponding case-mix differences. We subsequently assess the models' performance in the validation sample and interpret the performance in view of the case-mix differences. Finally, we may adjust the model to the validation setting. We illustrate this three-step framework with a prediction model for diagnosing deep venous thrombosis using three validation samples with varying case mix. While one external validation sample merely assessed the model's reproducibility, two other samples rather assessed model transportability. The performance in all validation samples was adequate, and the model did not require extensive updating to correct for miscalibration or poor fit to the validation settings. The proposed framework enhances the interpretation of findings at external validation of prediction models. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Source regions of concern to U.S. interests derived from NOAA Tsunami Forecast Model Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eble, M. C.; uslu, B. U.; Wright, L.

2013-12-01

Synthetic tsunamis generated from source regions around the Pacific Basin are analyzed in terms of their relative impact on United States coastal locations.. The region of tsunami origin is as important as the expected magnitude and the predicted inundation for understanding tsunami hazard. The NOAA Center for Tsunami Research has developed high-resolution tsunami models capable of predicting tsunami arrival time and amplitude of waves at each location. These models have been used to conduct tsunami hazard assessments to assess maximum impact and tsunami inundation for use by local communities in education and evacuation map development. Hazard assessment studies conducted for Los Angeles, San Francisco, Crescent City, Hilo, and Apra Harbor are combined with results of tsunami forecast model development at each of seventy-five locations. Complete hazard assessment, identifies every possible tsunami variation from a pre-computed propagation database. Study results indicate that the Eastern Aleutian Islands and Alaska are the most likely regions to produce the largest impact on the West Coast of the United States, while the East Philippines and Mariana trench regions impact Apra Harbor, Guam. Hawaii appears to be impacted equally from South America, Alaska and the Kuril Islands.

Source-term development for a contaminant plume for use by multimedia risk assessment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whelan, Gene; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.; Gnanapragasam, Emmanuel K.; Yu, Charley; Lew, Christine S.; Mills, William B.

2000-02-01

Multimedia modelers from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and US Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to conduct a comprehensive and quantitative benchmarking analysis of four intermedia models: MEPAS, MMSOILS, PRESTO, and RESRAD. These models represent typical analytically based tools that are used in human-risk and endangerment assessments at installations containing radioactive and hazardous contaminants. The objective is to demonstrate an approach for developing an adequate source term by simplifying an existing, real-world, 90Sr plume at DOE's Hanford installation in Richland, WA, for use in a multimedia benchmarking exercise between MEPAS, MMSOILS, PRESTO, and RESRAD. Source characteristics and a release mechanism are developed and described; also described is a typical process and procedure that an analyst would follow in developing a source term for using this class of analytical tool in a preliminary assessment.

VMT-based traffic impact assessment : development of a trip length model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-06-01

This report develops models that relate the trip-lengths to the land-use characteristics at : the trip-ends (both production- and attraction-ends). Separate models were developed by trip : purpose. The results indicate several statistically significa...

A Structural Model for Student Outcomes: Assessment Programs in Community Colleges.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Altieri, Guy

1990-01-01

Presents a model for establishing a community college student outcomes assessment program, listing types of student outcomes that should be assessed, and sources of information and measures typically used to assess the outcomes. Reviews steps in program development and in tailoring the program to the college. (DMM)

Development and application of a 3-D geometry/mass model for LDEF satellite ionizing radiation assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colborn, B. L.; Armstrong, T. W.

1992-01-01

A computer model of the three dimensional geometry and material distributions for the LDEF spacecraft, experiment trays, and, for selected trays, the components of experiments within a tray was developed for use in ionizing radiation assessments. The model is being applied to provide 3-D shielding distributions around radiation dosimeters to aid in data interpretation, particularly in assessing the directional properties of the radiation exposure. Also, the model has been interfaced with radiation transport codes for 3-D dosimetry response predictions and for calculations related to determining the accuracy of trapped proton and cosmic ray environment models. The methodology is described used in developing the 3-D LDEF model and the level of detail incorporated. Currently, the trays modeled in detail are F2, F8, and H12 and H3. Applications of the model which are discussed include the 3-D shielding distributions around various dosimeters, the influence of shielding on dosimetry responses, and comparisons of dose predictions based on the present 3-D model vs those from 1-D geometry model approximations used in initial estimates.

Using the Assessment Model for Developing Learning Managements in Enrichment Science Classrooms of Upper Secondary Educational Students' Outcomes in Thailand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Athan, Athit; Srisa-ard, Boonchom; Suikraduang, Arun

2015-01-01

The aim of this work is to develop and investigate the model for assessing learning management on the enrichment science classrooms in the upper secondary education of the Development and Promotion of Science and Technology Talents Project in Thailand. Using the research methodologies with the four phases: to investigate the background of the…

Quantification for complex assessment: uncertainty estimation in final year project thesis assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ho Sung

2013-12-01

A quantitative method for estimating an expected uncertainty (reliability and validity) in assessment results arising from the relativity between four variables, viz examiner's expertise, examinee's expertise achieved, assessment task difficulty and examinee's performance, was developed for the complex assessment applicable to final year project thesis assessment including peer assessment. A guide map can be generated by the method for finding expected uncertainties prior to the assessment implementation with a given set of variables. It employs a scale for visualisation of expertise levels, derivation of which is based on quantified clarities of mental images for levels of the examiner's expertise and the examinee's expertise achieved. To identify the relevant expertise areas that depend on the complexity in assessment format, a graphical continuum model was developed. The continuum model consists of assessment task, assessment standards and criterion for the transition towards the complex assessment owing to the relativity between implicitness and explicitness and is capable of identifying areas of expertise required for scale development.

A method to assess the allocation suitability of recreational activities: An economic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hsiao-Lin

1996-03-01

Most existing methods of planning focus on development of a recreational area; less consideration is placed on the allocation of recreational activities within a recreational area. Most existing research emphasizes the economic benefits of developing a recreational area; few authors assessed the allocation suitability of recreational activities from an economic point of view. The purpose of this work was to develop a model to assess the allocation suitability of recreational activities according to the application of a concept of analysis of cost and benefit under a premise of ecological concern. The model was verified with a case study of Taiwan. We suggest that the proposed model should form a critical part of recreational planning.

Online Faculty Development and Assessment System (OFDAS)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Villar, Luis M.; Alegre, Olga M.

2006-01-01

The rapid growth of online learning has led to the development of faculty inservice evaluation models focused on quality improvement of degree programs. Based on current "best practices" of student online assessment, the Online Faculty Development and Assessment System (OFDAS), created at the Canary Islands, was designed to serve the…

V&V framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hills, Richard G.; Maniaci, David Charles; Naughton, Jonathan W.

2015-09-01

A Verification and Validation (V&V) framework is presented for the development and execution of coordinated modeling and experimental program s to assess the predictive capability of computational models of complex systems through focused, well structured, and formal processes.The elements of the framework are based on established V&V methodology developed by various organizations including the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, and the American Society of Mechanical Engineers. Four main topics are addressed: 1) Program planning based on expert elicitation of the modeling physics requirements, 2) experimental design for model assessment, 3)more » uncertainty quantification for experimental observations and computational model simulations, and 4) assessment of the model predictive capability. The audience for this document includes program planners, modelers, experimentalist, V &V specialist, and customers of the modeling results.« less

Assessing Uncertainty of Interspecies Correlation Estimation Models for Aromatic Compounds

EPA Science Inventory

We developed Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) models for aromatic compounds containing 1 to 4 benzene rings to assess uncertainty in toxicity extrapolation in two data compilation approaches. ICE models are mathematical relationships between surrogate and predicted test ...

Computer-Based Resource Accounting Model for Automobile Technology Impact Assessment

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-10-01

A computer-implemented resource accounting model has been developed for assessing resource impacts of future automobile technology options. The resources tracked are materials, energy, capital, and labor. The model has been used in support of the Int...

Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: An evaluation of two land-use change models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Claggett, Peter; Jantz, Claire A.; Goetz, S.J.; Bisland, C.

2004-01-01

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: an evaluation of two land-use change models.

PubMed

Claggett, Peter R; Jantz, Claire A; Goetz, Scott J; Bisland, Carin

2004-06-01

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.

Implications of Simulation Conceptual Model Development for Simulation Management and Uncertainty Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pace, Dale K.

2000-01-01

A simulation conceptual model is a simulation developers way of translating modeling requirements (i. e., what is to be represented by the simulation or its modification) into a detailed design framework (i. e., how it is to be done), from which the software, hardware, networks (in the case of distributed simulation), and systems/equipment that will make up the simulation can be built or modified. A conceptual model is the collection of information which describes a simulation developers concept about the simulation and its pieces. That information consists of assumptions, algorithms, characteristics, relationships, and data. Taken together, these describe how the simulation developer understands what is to be represented by the simulation (entities, actions, tasks, processes, interactions, etc.) and how that representation will satisfy the requirements to which the simulation responds. Thus the conceptual model is the basis for judgment about simulation fidelity and validity for any condition that is not specifically tested. The more perspicuous and precise the conceptual model, the more likely it is that the simulation development will both fully satisfy requirements and allow demonstration that the requirements are satisfied (i. e., validation). Methods used in simulation conceptual model development have significant implications for simulation management and for assessment of simulation uncertainty. This paper suggests how to develop and document a simulation conceptual model so that the simulation fidelity and validity can be most effectively determined. These ideas for conceptual model development apply to all simulation varieties. The paper relates these ideas to uncertainty assessments as they relate to simulation fidelity and validity. The paper also explores implications for simulation management from conceptual model development methods, especially relative to reuse of simulation components.

Developing a modern standard to define and assess professionalism in trainees.

PubMed

Schwartz, Ann C; Kotwicki, Raymond J; McDonald, William M

2009-01-01

Assessing professionalism in medical education poses many challenges. The authors discuss common themes and principles in managing professionalism in medical education. The authors review the development of standards of professionalism in medical education. They define educational goals for professionalism and also discuss the practical problems with assessing professionalism and addressing it with the trainees. Strategies for remediation of unprofessional conduct are outlined. Given the importance of role models in the development of professional behavior, maintaining an environment that fosters professionalism is an implicit feature of teaching professionalism. Professionalism should be a part of the objectives for each course and clinical rotation, using clearly defined goals and objectives. Assessment of professionalism should begin early and be conducted frequently, giving trainees the opportunity to change. A formal mentoring system can be an effective mechanism to develop role models and teach professionalism. Teaching professionalism through formal curricula is paramount in helping develop new generations of compassionate and responsible physicians. Additional strategies such as consistent role modeling of professional behaviors are also needed to encourage the development of professional physicians.

A Sensitivity Model (SM) approach to analyze urban development in Taiwan based on sustainability indicators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang Shuli; Yeh Chiatsung; Budd, William W.

2009-02-15

Sustainability indicators have been widely developed to monitor and assess sustainable development. They are expected to guide political decision-making based on their capability to represent states and trends of development. However, using indicators to assess the sustainability of urban strategies and policies has limitations - as they neither reflect the systemic interactions among them, nor provide normative indications in what direction they should be developed. This paper uses a semi-quantitative systematic model tool (Sensitivity Model Tools, SM) to analyze the role of urban development in Taiwan's sustainability. The results indicate that the natural environment in urban area is one ofmore » the most critical components and the urban economic production plays a highly active role in affecting Taiwan's sustainable development. The semi-quantitative simulation model integrates sustainability indicators and urban development policy to provide decision-makers with information about the impacts of their decisions on urban development. The system approach incorporated by this paper can be seen as a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for a sustainability assessment. The participatory process of expert participants for providing judgments on the relations between indicator variables is also discussed.« less

An Organizational Development Framework for Assessing Readiness and Capacity for Expanding Online Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piña, Anthony A.

2017-01-01

In this article, a popular model for organizational development is utilized as a framework for assessing the organizational readiness and capacity of educational institutions whose leaders wish to establish or expand their online/distance education programs. Examples of institutionalization factors to consider and alternative models for assessing…

Evaluating the Assessment Models for Young Children with Special Needs in Taiwan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Hua-Kuo

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was intended to evaluate the assessment models of two representative centers of team evaluation for children's development in Taiwan. Documentary analysis and phone interview were employed in the study to collect the research data needed. Two centers of team evaluation for children's development were selected and…

Development of a biorefinery optimized biofuel supply curve for the western United States

Treesearch

Nathan Parker; Peter Tittmann; Quinn Hart; Richard Nelson; Ken Skog; Anneliese Schmidt; Edward Gray; Bryan Jenkins

2010-01-01

A resource assessment and biorefinery siting optimization model was developed and implemented to assess potential biofuel supply across the Western United States from agricultural, forest, urban, and energy crop biomass. Spatial information including feedstock resources, existing and potential refinery locations and a transportation network model is provided to a mixed...

A strategic assessment of biofuels development in the Western States

Treesearch

Kenneth E. Skog; Robert Rummer; Bryan Jenkins; Nathan Parker; Peter Tittman; Quinn Hart; Richard Nelson; Ed Gray; Anneliese Schmidt; Marcia Patton-Mallory; Gordon Gayle

2009-01-01

The Western Governors' Association assessment of biofuels potential in western states estimated the location and capacity of biofuels plants that could potentially be built for selected gasoline prices in 2015 using a mixed integer programming model. The model included information on forest biomass supply curves by county (developed using Forest Service FIA data...

DEVELOPMENT OF 3-D COMPUTER MODELS OF HUMAN LUNG MORPHOLOGY FOR IMPROOVED RISK ASSESSMENT OF INHALED PARTICULATE MATTER

EPA Science Inventory

DEVELOPMENT OF 3-D COMPUTER MODELS OF HUMAN LUNG MORPHOLOGY FOR IMPROVED RISK ASSESSMENT OF INHALED PARTICULATE MATTER

Jeffry D. Schroeter, Curriculum in Toxicology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599; Ted B. Martonen, ETD, NHEERL, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711; Do...

A landscape based, systems dynamic model for assessing impacts of urban development on water quality for sustainable seagrass growth in Tampa Bay, Florida

EPA Science Inventory

We present an integrated assessment model to predict potential unintended consequences of urban development on the sustainability of seagrasses and preservation of ecosystem services, such as catchable fish, in Tampa Bay. Ecosystem services are those ecological functions and pro...

Development of an Instructional Quality Assurance Model in Nursing Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ajpru, Haruthai; Pasiphol, Shotiga; Wongwanich, Suwimon

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an instructional quality assurance model in nursing science. The study was divided into 3 phases; (1) to study the information for instructional quality assurance model development (2) to develop an instructional quality assurance model in nursing science and (3) to audit and the assessment of the developed…

Assessment of Differential Item Functioning under Cognitive Diagnosis Models: The DINA Model Example

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Xiaomin; Wang, Wen-Chung

2015-01-01

The assessment of differential item functioning (DIF) is routinely conducted to ensure test fairness and validity. Although many DIF assessment methods have been developed in the context of classical test theory and item response theory, they are not applicable for cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs), as the underlying latent attributes of CDMs are…

Testing Students with Special Needs: A Model for Understanding the Interaction between Assessment and Student Characteristics in a Universally Designed Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ketterlin-Geller, Leanne R.

2008-01-01

This article presents a model of assessment development integrating student characteristics with the conceptualization, design, and implementation of standardized achievement tests. The model extends the assessment triangle proposed by the National Research Council (Pellegrino, Chudowsky, & Glaser, 2001) to consider the needs of students with…

MULTI-MEDIA MODELING : RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Developed by ORD in collaboration with OSW, the Multimedia, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) national risk assessment methodology is designed to assess risks at sites containing source(s) of contamination that may release contaminants to the environment. Or...

Planning and design of studies for river-quality assessment in the Truckee and Carson River basins, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nowlin, Jon O.; Brown, W.M.; Smith, L.H.; Hoffman, R.J.

1980-01-01

The objectives of the Geological Survey 's river-quality assessment in the Truckee and Carson River basins in California and Nevada are to identify the significant resource management problems; to develop techniques to assess the problems; and to effectively communicate results to responsible managers. Six major elements of the assessment to be completed by October 1981 are (1) a detailing of the legal, institutional, and structural development of water resources in the basins and the current problems and conflicts; (2) a compilation and synthesis of the physical hydrology of the basins; (3) development of a special workshop approach to involve local management in the direction and results of the study; (4) development of a comprehensive streamflow model emcompassing both basins to provide a quantitative hydrologic framework for water-quality analysis; (5) development of a water-quality transport model for selected constituents and characteristics on selected reaches of the Truckee River; and (6) a detailed examination of selected fish habitats for specified reaches of the Truckee River. Progress will be periodically reported in reports, maps, computer data files, mathematical models, a bibliography, and public presentations. In building a basic framework to develop techniques, the basins were viewed as a single hydrologic unit because of interconnecting diversion structures. The framework comprises 13 hydrographic subunits to facilitate modeling and sampling. Several significant issues beyond the scope of the assessment were considered as supplementary proposals; water-quality loadings in Truckee and Carson Rivers, urban runoff in Reno and management alternatives, and a model of limnological processes in Lahontan Reservoir. (USGS)

A fuzzy-logic based decision-making approach for identification of groundwater quality based on groundwater quality indices.

PubMed

Vadiati, M; Asghari-Moghaddam, A; Nakhaei, M; Adamowski, J; Akbarzadeh, A H

2016-12-15

Due to inherent uncertainties in measurement and analysis, groundwater quality assessment is a difficult task. Artificial intelligence techniques, specifically fuzzy inference systems, have proven useful in evaluating groundwater quality in uncertain and complex hydrogeological systems. In the present study, a Mamdani fuzzy-logic-based decision-making approach was developed to assess groundwater quality based on relevant indices. In an effort to develop a set of new hybrid fuzzy indices for groundwater quality assessment, a Mamdani fuzzy inference model was developed with widely-accepted groundwater quality indices: the Groundwater Quality Index (GQI), the Water Quality Index (WQI), and the Ground Water Quality Index (GWQI). In an effort to present generalized hybrid fuzzy indices a significant effort was made to employ well-known groundwater quality index acceptability ranges as fuzzy model output ranges rather than employing expert knowledge in the fuzzification of output parameters. The proposed approach was evaluated for its ability to assess the drinking water quality of 49 samples collected seasonally from groundwater resources in Iran's Sarab Plain during 2013-2014. Input membership functions were defined as "desirable", "acceptable" and "unacceptable" based on expert knowledge and the standard and permissible limits prescribed by the World Health Organization. Output data were categorized into multiple categories based on the GQI (5 categories), WQI (5 categories), and GWQI (3 categories). Given the potential of fuzzy models to minimize uncertainties, hybrid fuzzy-based indices produce significantly more accurate assessments of groundwater quality than traditional indices. The developed models' accuracy was assessed and a comparison of the performance indices demonstrated the Fuzzy Groundwater Quality Index model to be more accurate than both the Fuzzy Water Quality Index and Fuzzy Ground Water Quality Index models. This suggests that the new hybrid fuzzy indices developed in this research are reliable and flexible when used in groundwater quality assessment for drinking purposes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

2015-01-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

2015-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agriculturalmore » Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.« less

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold; Boote, Kenneth J.; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Martre, Pierre; McDermid, Sonali P.; Müller, Christoph; Snyder, Abigail; Thorburn, Peter J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.

The development and implementation of a decision-making capacity assessment model.

PubMed

Parmar, Jasneet; Brémault-Phillips, Suzette; Charles, Lesley

2015-03-01

Decision-making capacity assessment (DMCA) is an issue of increasing importance for older adults. Current challenges need to be explored, and potential processes and strategies considered in order to address issues of DMCA in a more coordinated manner. An iterative process was used to address issues related to DMCA. This began with recognition of challenges associated with capacity assessments (CAs) by staff at Covenant Health (CH). Review of the literature, as well as discussions with and a survey of staff at three CH sites, resulted in determination of issues related to DMCA. Development of a DMCA Model and demonstration of its feasibility followed. A process was proposed with front-end screening/problem- solving, a well-defined standard assessment, and definition of team member roles. A Capacity Assessment Care Map was formulated based on the process. Documentation was developed consisting of a Capacity Assessment Process Worksheet, Capacity Interview Worksheet, and a brochure. Interactive workshops were delivered to familiarize staff with the DMCA Model. A successful demonstration project led to implementation across all sites in the Capital Health region, and eventual provincial endorsement. Concerns identified in the survey and in the literature regarding CA were addressed through the holistic interdisciplinary approach offered by the DMCA Model.

Organism and population-level ecological models for chemical risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological risk assessment typically focuses on animal populations as endpoints for regulatory ecotoxicology. Scientists at USEPA are developing models for animal populations exposed to a wide range of chemicals from pesticides to emerging contaminants. Modeled taxa include aquat...

Assessing the IRIS Professional Development Model: Impact Beyond the Workshops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubenthal, M.; Braile, L. W.; Taber, J. J.

2003-12-01

The IRIS Education and Outreach (E&O) Program has developed a highly effective, one-day professional development experience for formal educators. Leveraging the expertise of its consortium, IRIS delivers content including: plate tectonics, propagation of seismic waves, seismographs, Earth's interior structure. At the core of the IRIS professional development model is the philosophy that changes in teacher behavior can be affected by increasing teacher comfort in the classroom. Science and research organizations such as IRIS are able to increase teachers' comfort in the classroom by providing professional development which: increases an educator's knowledge of scientific content, provides educators with a variety of high-quality, scientifically accurate activities to deliver content to students, and provides educators with experiences involving both the content and the educational activities as the primary means of knowledge transfer. As reflected in a 2002-2003 academic year assessment program, this model has proven to be effective at reaching beyond participants and extending into the educators' classrooms. 76% of respondents report increasing the amount of time they spend teaching seismology or related topics in their classroom as a result of participating in IRIS professional development experience. This increase can be directly attributed to the workshop as 90% of participants report using at least one activity modeled during the workshop upon returning to their classrooms. The reported mean activity usage by teachers upon was 4.5 activities per teacher. Since the inception of the professional development model in 1999, IRIS E&O has been committed to evaluation. Data derived from assessment is utilized as a key decision making tool, driving a continuous improvement process. As a result, both the model and the assessment methods have become increasingly refined and sophisticated. The alignment of the professional development model within the IRIS E&O Program framework has resulted in a clarified a definition of success and an increased demand for the collection of new data. Currently, the assessment program is testing tools to examine participant learning, measure the transfer of knowledge and resources from professional development into in classrooms, and measure the use of individual activities.

Environmental fate and exposure models: advances and challenges in 21st century chemical risk assessment.

PubMed

Di Guardo, Antonio; Gouin, Todd; MacLeod, Matthew; Scheringer, Martin

2018-01-24

Environmental fate and exposure models are a powerful means to integrate information on chemicals, their partitioning and degradation behaviour, the environmental scenario and the emissions in order to compile a picture of chemical distribution and fluxes in the multimedia environment. A 1995 pioneering book, resulting from a series of workshops among model developers and users, reported the main advantages and identified needs for research in the field of multimedia fate models. Considerable efforts were devoted to their improvement in the past 25 years and many aspects were refined; notably the inclusion of nanomaterials among the modelled substances, the development of models at different spatial and temporal scales, the estimation of chemical properties and emission data, the incorporation of additional environmental media and processes, the integration of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the simulations. However, some challenging issues remain and require research efforts and attention: the need of methods to estimate partition coefficients for polar and ionizable chemical in the environment, a better description of bioavailability in different environments as well as the requirement of injecting more ecological realism in exposure predictions to account for the diversity of ecosystem structures and functions in risk assessment. Finally, to transfer new scientific developments into the realm of regulatory risk assessment, we propose the formation of expert groups that compare, discuss and recommend model modifications and updates and help develop practical tools for risk assessment.

A modular approach for assessing the effect of radiation environments on man in operational systems. The radiobiological vulnerability of man during task performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ewing, D. E.

1972-01-01

A modular approach for assessing the affects of radiation environments on man in operational systems has been developed. The feasibility of the model has been proved and the practicality has been assessed. It has been applied to one operational system to date and information obtained has been submitted to systems analysts and mission planners for the assessment of man's vulnerability and impact on systems survivability. In addition, the model has been developed so that the radiobiological data can be input to a sophisticated man-machine interface model to properly relate the radiobiological stress with other mission stresses including the effects of a degraded system.

Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in impact assessments: The example of the BRACE study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.

2015-12-01

Assessing climate change impacts often requires the use of multiple scenarios, types of models, and data sources, leading to a large number of potential sources of uncertainty. For example, a single study might require a choice of a forcing scenario, climate model, bias correction and/or downscaling method, societal development scenario, model (typically several) for quantifying elements of societal development such as economic and population growth, biophysical model (such as for crop yields or hydrology), and societal impact model (e.g. economic or health model). Some sources of uncertainty are reduced or eliminated by the framing of the question. For example, it may be useful to ask what an impact outcome would be conditional on a given societal development pathway, forcing scenario, or policy. However many sources of uncertainty remain, and it is rare for all or even most of these sources to be accounted for. I use the example of a recent integrated project on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) to explore useful approaches to uncertainty across multiple components of an impact assessment. BRACE comprises 23 papers that assess the differences in impacts between two alternative climate futures: those associated with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. It quantifies difference in impacts in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, tropical cyclones, and sea level rise. Methodologically, it includes climate modeling, statistical analysis, integrated assessment modeling, and sector-specific impact modeling. It employs alternative scenarios of both radiative forcing and societal development, but generally uses a single climate model (CESM), partially accounting for climate uncertainty by drawing heavily on large initial condition ensembles. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach to uncertainty in BRACE are assessed. Options under consideration for improving the approach include the use of perturbed physics ensembles of CESM, employing results from multiple climate models, and combining the results from single impact models with statistical representations of uncertainty across multiple models. A key consideration is the relationship between the question being addressed and the uncertainty approach.

Probabilistic modeling of percutaneous absorption for risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug delivery.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ho, Clifford Kuofei

Chemical transport through human skin can play a significant role in human exposure to toxic chemicals in the workplace, as well as to chemical/biological warfare agents in the battlefield. The viability of transdermal drug delivery also relies on chemical transport processes through the skin. Models of percutaneous absorption are needed for risk-based exposure assessments and drug-delivery analyses, but previous mechanistic models have been largely deterministic. A probabilistic, transient, three-phase model of percutaneous absorption of chemicals has been developed to assess the relative importance of uncertain parameters and processes that may be important to risk-based assessments. Penetration routes through the skinmore » that were modeled include the following: (1) intercellular diffusion through the multiphase stratum corneum; (2) aqueous-phase diffusion through sweat ducts; and (3) oil-phase diffusion through hair follicles. Uncertainty distributions were developed for the model parameters, and a Monte Carlo analysis was performed to simulate probability distributions of mass fluxes through each of the routes. Sensitivity analyses using stepwise linear regression were also performed to identify model parameters that were most important to the simulated mass fluxes at different times. This probabilistic analysis of percutaneous absorption (PAPA) method has been developed to improve risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug-delivery analyses, where parameters and processes can be highly uncertain.« less

The use of psychosocial assessment following the Haiti earthquake in the development of the three-year emotional psycho-medical mental health and psychosocial support (EP-MMHPS) plan.

PubMed

Jordan, Karin

2010-01-01

This article provides information about the 2010 Haiti earthquake. An assessment model used by a crisis counselor responding to the earthquake is presented, focusing on the importance of gathering pre-deployment assessment and in-country assessment. Examples of the information gathered through the in-country assessment model from children, adolescents, and adults are presented. A brief overview of Haiti's three-year Emergency Psycho-Medical Mental Health and Psychosocial Support (EP-MMHPS) is provided. Finally, how the psychosocial manual developed after assessing 200 Haitian survivors through in-country assessment, and information gathered through pre-deployment assessment became part of the EP-MMHPS is offered.

Assessment and prediction of air quality using fuzzy logic and autoregressive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carbajal-Hernández, José Juan; Sánchez-Fernández, Luis P.; Carrasco-Ochoa, Jesús A.; Martínez-Trinidad, José Fco.

2012-12-01

In recent years, artificial intelligence methods have been used for the treatment of environmental problems. This work, presents two models for assessment and prediction of air quality. First, we develop a new computational model for air quality assessment in order to evaluate toxic compounds that can harm sensitive people in urban areas, affecting their normal activities. In this model we propose to use a Sigma operator to statistically asses air quality parameters using their historical data information and determining their negative impact in air quality based on toxicity limits, frequency average and deviations of toxicological tests. We also introduce a fuzzy inference system to perform parameter classification using a reasoning process and integrating them in an air quality index describing the pollution levels in five stages: excellent, good, regular, bad and danger, respectively. The second model proposed in this work predicts air quality concentrations using an autoregressive model, providing a predicted air quality index based on the fuzzy inference system previously developed. Using data from Mexico City Atmospheric Monitoring System, we perform a comparison among air quality indices developed for environmental agencies and similar models. Our results show that our models are an appropriate tool for assessing site pollution and for providing guidance to improve contingency actions in urban areas.

A model of the pre-assessment learning effects of assessment is operational in an undergraduate clinical context

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background No validated model exists to explain the learning effects of assessment, a problem when designing and researching assessment for learning. We recently developed a model explaining the pre-assessment learning effects of summative assessment in a theory teaching context. The challenge now is to validate this model. The purpose of this study was to explore whether the model was operational in a clinical context as a first step in this process. Methods Given the complexity of the model, we adopted a qualitative approach. Data from in-depth interviews with eighteen medical students were subject to content analysis. We utilised a code book developed previously using grounded theory. During analysis, we remained alert to data that might not conform to the coding framework and open to the possibility of deploying inductive coding. Ethical clearance and informed consent were obtained. Results The three components of the model i.e., assessment factors, mechanism factors and learning effects were all evident in the clinical context. Associations between these components could all be explained by the model. Interaction with preceptors was identified as a new subcomponent of assessment factors. The model could explain the interrelationships of the three facets of this subcomponent i.e., regular accountability, personal consequences and emotional valence of the learning environment, with previously described components of the model. Conclusions The model could be utilized to analyse and explain observations in an assessment context different to that from which it was derived. In the clinical setting, the (negative) influence of preceptors on student learning was particularly prominent. In this setting, learning effects resulted not only from the high-stakes nature of summative assessment but also from personal stakes, e.g. for esteem and agency. The results suggest that to influence student learning, consequences should accrue from assessment that are immediate, concrete and substantial. The model could have utility as a planning or diagnostic tool in practice and research settings. PMID:22420839

Clinical governance is "ACE"--using the EFQM excellence model to support baseline assessment.

PubMed

Holland, K; Fennell, S

2000-01-01

The introduction of clinical governance in the "new NHS" means that National Health Service (NHS) organisations are now accountable for the quality of the services they provide to their local communities. As part of the implementation of clinical governance in the NHS, Trusts and health authorities had to complete a baseline assessment of their capability and capacity by September 1999. Describes one Trust's approach to developing and implementing its baseline assessment tool, based upon its existing use of the European Foundation for Quality Management (EFQM) Excellence Model. An initial review of the process suggests that the model provides an adaptable framework for the development of a comprehensive and practical assessment tool and that self-assessment ensures ownership of action plans at service level.

20170921 - Development of an acute oral toxicity dataset to facilitate assessment of existing QSARs and development of new models (ASCCT)

EPA Science Inventory

Assessment of the acute toxic potential of a substance is necessary to determine the adverse effects that might occur following accidental or deliberate short-term exposure. There are no accepted in vitro approaches available and few in silico models. Until recently, there had be...

Genetically modified crops and aquatic ecosystems: considerations for environmental risk assessment and non-target organism testing.

PubMed

Carstens, Keri; Anderson, Jennifer; Bachman, Pamela; De Schrijver, Adinda; Dively, Galen; Federici, Brian; Hamer, Mick; Gielkens, Marco; Jensen, Peter; Lamp, William; Rauschen, Stefan; Ridley, Geoff; Romeis, Jörg; Waggoner, Annabel

2012-08-01

Environmental risk assessments (ERA) support regulatory decisions for the commercial cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops. The ERA for terrestrial agroecosystems is well-developed, whereas guidance for ERA of GM crops in aquatic ecosystems is not as well-defined. The purpose of this document is to demonstrate how comprehensive problem formulation can be used to develop a conceptual model and to identify potential exposure pathways, using Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) maize as a case study. Within problem formulation, the insecticidal trait, the crop, the receiving environment, and protection goals were characterized, and a conceptual model was developed to identify routes through which aquatic organisms may be exposed to insecticidal proteins in maize tissue. Following a tiered approach for exposure assessment, worst-case exposures were estimated using standardized models, and factors mitigating exposure were described. Based on exposure estimates, shredders were identified as the functional group most likely to be exposed to insecticidal proteins. However, even using worst-case assumptions, the exposure of shredders to Bt maize was low and studies supporting the current risk assessments were deemed adequate. Determining if early tier toxicity studies are necessary to inform the risk assessment for a specific GM crop should be done on a case by case basis, and should be guided by thorough problem formulation and exposure assessment. The processes used to develop the Bt maize case study are intended to serve as a model for performing risk assessments on future traits and crops.

Evaluation model of wind energy resources and utilization efficiency of wind farm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jie

2018-04-01

Due to the large amount of abandoned winds in wind farms, the establishment of a wind farm evaluation model is particularly important for the future development of wind farms In this essay, consider the wind farm's wind energy situation, Wind Energy Resource Model (WERM) and Wind Energy Utilization Efficiency Model(WEUEM) are established to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the wind farm. Wind Energy Resource Model (WERM) contains average wind speed, average wind power density and turbulence intensity, which assessed wind energy resources together. Based on our model, combined with the actual measurement data of a wind farm, calculate the indicators using the model, and the results are in line with the actual situation. We can plan the future development of the wind farm based on this result. Thus, the proposed establishment approach of wind farm assessment model has application value.

THE USE OF CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODELING APPROACHES TO UNDERSTAND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GM PLANTS ON PLANT COMMUNITIES

EPA Science Inventory

The development of models is of interest to ecologists, regulators and developers, since it may assist theoretical understanding, decision making in experimental design, product development and risk assessment. A successful modeling methodology for investigating such characteris...

'TeamUP': An approach to developing teamwork skills in undergraduate midwifery students.

PubMed

Hastie, Carolyn Ruth

2018-03-01

to develop an effective model to enable educators to teach, develop and assess the development of midwifery students' teamwork skills DESIGN: an action research project involving participant interviews and academic feedback. a regional university PARTICIPANTS: midwifery students (n = 21) and new graduate midwives (n = 20) INTERVENTIONS: a whole of course program using a rubric, with five teamwork domains and behavioural descriptors, to provide a framework for teaching and assessment. Students self and peer assess. Lectures, tutorials and eight different groupwork assignments of increasing difficulty, spread over the three years of the undergraduate degree are incorporated into the TeamUP model. the assignments provide students with the opportunity to practice and develop their teamwork skills in a safe, supported environment. the social, emotional and practical behaviours required for effective teamwork can be taught and developed in undergraduate health students. students require a clear overview of the TeamUP model at the beginning of the degree. They need to be informed of the skills and behaviours that the TeamUP model is designed to help develop and why they are important. The success of the model depends upon the educator's commitment to supporting students to learn teamwork skills. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indoor Air Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Health Modeling and Assessment System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stenner, Robert D.; Hadley, Donald L.; Armstrong, Peter R.

2001-03-01

Indoor air quality effects on human health are of increasing concern to public health agencies and building owners. The prevention and treatment of 'sick building' syndrome and the spread of air-borne diseases in hospitals, for example, are well known priorities. However, increasing attention is being directed to the vulnerability of our public buildings/places, public security and national defense facilities to terrorist attack or the accidental release of air-borne biological pathogens, harmful chemicals, or radioactive contaminants. The Indoor Air Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Health Modeling and Assessment System (IA-NBC-HMAS) was developed to serve as a health impact analysis tool for usemore » in addressing these concerns. The overall goal was to develop a user-friendly fully functional prototype Health Modeling and Assessment system, which will operate under the PNNL FRAMES system for ease of use and to maximize its integration with other modeling and assessment capabilities accessible within the FRAMES system (e.g., ambient air fate and transport models, water borne fate and transport models, Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic models, etc.). The prototype IA-NBC-HMAS is designed to serve as a functional Health Modeling and Assessment system that can be easily tailored to meet specific building analysis needs of a customer. The prototype system was developed and tested using an actual building (i.e., the Churchville Building located at the Aberdeen Proving Ground) and release scenario (i.e., the release and measurement of tracer materials within the building) to ensure realism and practicality in the design and development of the prototype system. A user-friendly "demo" accompanies this report to allow the reader the opportunity for a "hands on" review of the prototype system's capability.« less

Developing Teachers' Models for Assessing Students' Competence in Mathematical Modelling through Lesson Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aydogan Yenmez, Arzu; Erbas, Ayhan Kursat; Cakiroglu, Erdinc; Alacaci, Cengiz; Cetinkaya, Bulent

2017-01-01

Applications and modelling have gained a prominent role in mathematics education reform documents and curricula. Thus, there is a growing need for studies focusing on the effective use of mathematical modelling in classrooms. Assessment is an integral part of using modelling activities in classrooms, since it allows teachers to identify and manage…

Risk assessment models to evaluate the necessity of prostate biopsies in North Chinese patients with 4-50 ng/mL PSA.

PubMed

Zhao, Jing; Liu, Shuai; Gao, Dexuan; Ding, Sentai; Niu, Zhihong; Zhang, Hui; Huang, Zhilong; Qiu, Juhui; Li, Qing; Li, Ning; Xie, Fang; Cui, Jilei; Lu, Jiaju

2017-02-07

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is widely used for prostate cancer screening, but low specificity results in high false positive rates of prostate biopsies. To develop new risk assessment models to overcome the diagnostic limitation of PSA and reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies in North Chinese patients with 4-50 ng/mL PSA. A total of 702 patients in seven hospitals with 4-10 and 10-50 ng/mL PSA, respectively, who had undergone transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsies, were assessed. Analysis-modeling stage for several clinical indexes related to prostate cancer and renal function was carried out. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to develop new risk assessment models of prostate cancer for both PSA level ranges 4-10 and 10-50 ng/mL. External validation stage of the new models was performed to assess the necessity of biopsy. The new models for both PSA ranges performed significantly better than PSA for detecting prostate cancers. Both models showed higher areas under the curves (0.937 and 0.873, respectively) compared with PSA alone (0.624 and 0.595), at pre-determined cut-off values of 0.1067 and 0.6183, respectively. Patients above the cut-off values were recommended for immediate biopsy, while the others were actively observed. External validation of the models showed significantly increased detection rates for prostate cancer (4-10 ng/mL group, 39.29% vs 17.79%, p=0.006; 10-50 ng/mL group, 71.83% vs 50.0%, p=0.015). We developed risk assessment models for North Chinese patients with 4-50 ng/mL PSA to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies and increase the detection rate of prostate cancer.

Designing sustainable and economically attractive brownfield revitalization options using an integrated assessment model.

PubMed

Schädler, S; Morio, M; Bartke, S; Rohr-Zänker, R; Finkel, M

2011-03-01

We describe the development of an integrated assessment model which evaluates redevelopment options of large contaminated brownfields and we present the application of the model in a case study. Aiming to support efficient and sustainable revitalization and communication between stakeholders, the presented assessment model integrates three pinnacles of brownfield revitalization: (i) subsurface remediation and site preparation costs, (ii) market-oriented economic appraisal, and (iii) the expected contribution of planned future land use to sustainable community and regional development. For the assessment, focus is set on the early stage of the brownfield redevelopment process, which is characterized by limited data availability and by flexibility in land use planning and development scope. At this stage, revealing the consequences of adjustments and alterations in planning options can foster efficiency in communication between the involved parties and thereby facilitates the brownfield revitalization process. Results from the case-study application indicate that the integrated assessment provides help in the identification of land use options beneficial in both a sustainable and an economical sense. For the study site it is shown on one hand that brownfield redevelopment is not automatically in line with sustainable regional development, and on the other hand it is demonstrated that additional contributions to sustainability are not intrinsically tied to increased costs. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

4D Model on Assessing Psychomotor Aspect in Continental Food Processing Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurafiati, P.; Ana, A.; Ratnasusanti, H.; Maulana, I.

2018-02-01

This research aims to develop and find out the response of observers for the assessment instrument of student’s psychomotor aspect on continental food processing practice. This research belongs to development research with 4P model that confined till the definition, design, and development stages. The data that gained during the research is analyzed descriptively. Research’s product is assessment instrument rubric form that consists of performance’s aspect which should be assessed and performance’s quality which stated in gradation score with 0-4 level and performance description that completed with picture illustration in every single score. Product was validate and responded based on material, construction, language, objectively, systematic, and practicability aspects. The result show that assessment instrument of student’s psychomotor aspect on continental food processing practice which developed gain very good response with percentage of 84,47%.

Invited review: A position on the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM).

PubMed

MacLeod, M J; Vellinga, T; Opio, C; Falcucci, A; Tempio, G; Henderson, B; Makkar, H; Mottet, A; Robinson, T; Steinfeld, H; Gerber, P J

2018-02-01

The livestock sector is one of the fastest growing subsectors of the agricultural economy and, while it makes a major contribution to global food supply and economic development, it also consumes significant amounts of natural resources and alters the environment. In order to improve our understanding of the global environmental impact of livestock supply chains, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has developed the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of GLEAM. Specifically, it explains the model architecture, methods and functionality, that is the types of analysis that the model can perform. The model focuses primarily on the quantification of greenhouse gases emissions arising from the production of the 11 main livestock commodities. The model inputs and outputs are managed and produced as raster data sets, with spatial resolution of 0.05 decimal degrees. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model v1.0 consists of five distinct modules: (a) the Herd Module; (b) the Manure Module; (c) the Feed Module; (d) the System Module; (e) the Allocation Module. In terms of the modelling approach, GLEAM has several advantages. For example spatial information on livestock distributions and crops yields enables rations to be derived that reflect the local availability of feed resources in developing countries. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model also contains a herd model that enables livestock statistics to be disaggregated and variation in livestock performance and management to be captured. Priorities for future development of GLEAM include: improving data quality and the methods used to perform emissions calculations; extending the scope of the model to include selected additional environmental impacts and to enable predictive modelling; and improving the utility of GLEAM output.

Alternative Model for Administration and Analysis of Research-Based Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilcox, Bethany R.; Zwickl, Benjamin M.; Hobbs, Robert D.; Aiken, John M.; Welch, Nathan M.; Lewandowski, H. J.

2016-01-01

Research-based assessments represent a valuable tool for both instructors and researchers interested in improving undergraduate physics education. However, the historical model for disseminating and propagating conceptual and attitudinal assessments developed by the physics education research (PER) community has not resulted in widespread adoption…

Assessment of eutrophication in estuaries: Pressure-state-response and source apportionment

Treesearch

David Whitall; Suzanne Bricker

2006-01-01

The National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment (NEEA) Update Program is a management oriented program designed to improve monitoring and assessment efforts through the development of type specific classification of estuaries that will allow improved assessment methods and development of analytical and research models and tools for managers which will help guide and...

Cultivating Change from the Ground Up: Developing a Grassroots Programmatic Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conti, Maria; LaMance, Rachel; Miller-Cochran, Susan

2017-01-01

To address the needs and interests of primary stakeholders in a writing program, this article presents a model of "grassroots" assessment that involves instructors from all ranks as well as students in the development, facilitation, and interpretation of assessment results. The authors describe two assessment plans that measured student…

Toolkit of Available EPA Green Infrastructure Modeling ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This webinar will present a toolkit consisting of five EPA green infrastructure models and tools, along with communication material. This toolkit can be used as a teaching and quick reference resource for use by planners and developers when making green infrastructure implementation decisions. It can also be used for low impact development design competitions. Models and tools included: Green Infrastructure Wizard (GIWiz), Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool (WMOST), Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments (VELMA) Model, Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), and the National Stormwater Calculator (SWC). This webinar will present a toolkit consisting of five EPA green infrastructure models and tools, along with communication material. This toolkit can be used as a teaching and quick reference resource for use by planners and developers when making green infrastructure implementation decisions. It can also be used for low impact development design competitions. Models and tools included: Green Infrastructure Wizard (GIWiz), Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool (WMOST), Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments (VELMA) Model, Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), and the National Stormwater Calculator (SWC).

78 FR 59662 - Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-27

... applications and assessment of site specific, generic, and process-oriented multimedia environmental models as... development and simulation supports interagency interests in risk assessment, uncertainty analyses, management...

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gentile, J.H.; Harwell, M.A.; Cropper, W.; Harwell, C. C.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Davis, S.; Ogden, J.C.; Lirman, D.

2001-01-01

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability.

PubMed

Gentile, J H; Harwell, M A; Cropper, W; Harwell, C C; DeAngelis, D; Davis, S; Ogden, J C; Lirman, D

2001-07-02

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability, and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Measurement and assessment of carrying capacity of the environment in Ningbo, China.

PubMed

Liu, R Z; Borthwick, Alistair G L

2011-08-01

Carrying Capacity of the Environment (CCE) provides a useful measure of the sustainable development of a region. Approaches that use integrated assessment instead of measurement can lead to misinterpretation of sustainable development because of confusion between Environmental Stress (ES) indexes and CCE indexes, and the selection of over-simple linear plus models. The present paper proposes a comprehensive measurement system for CCE which comprises models of natural resources capacity, environmental assimilative capacity, ecosystem services capacity, and society supporting capacity. The corresponding measurable indexes are designed to assess CCE using a carrying capacity surplus ratio model and a vector of surplus ratio of carrying capacity model. The former aims at direct comparison of ES and CCE based on the values of basic indexes, and the latter uses a Euclidean vector to assess CCE states. The measurement and assessment approaches are applicable to Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and environmental planning and management. A case study is presented for Ningbo, China, whereby all the basic indexes of ECC are measured and the CCE states assessed for 2005 and 2010. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Condition Assessment Modeling for Distribution Systems Using Shared Frailty Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Condition Assessment (CA) modeling is drawing increasing interest as a methodology for managing drinking water infrastructure. This paper develops a Cox Proportional Hazard (PH)/shared frailty model and applies it to the problem of investment in the repair and replacement of dri...

MODELED ESTIMATES OF CHLORPYRIFOS EXPOSURE AND DOSE FOR THE MINNESOTA AND ARIZONA NHEXAS POPULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents a probabilistic, multimedia, multipathway exposure model and assessment for chlorpyrifos developed as part of the National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS). The model was constructed using available information prior to completion of the NHEXAS stu...

Development of esMOCA RULA, Motion Capture Instrumentation for RULA Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhmad, S.; Arendra, A.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this research is to build motion capture instrumentation using sensors fusion accelerometer and gyroscope to assist in RULA assessment. Data processing of sensor orientation is done in every sensor node by digital motion processor. Nine sensors are placed in the upper limb of operator subject. Development of kinematics model is done with Simmechanic Simulink. This kinematics model receives streaming data from sensors via wireless sensors network. The output of the kinematics model is the relative angular angle between upper limb members and visualized on the monitor. This angular information is compared to the look-up table of the RULA worksheet and gives the RULA score. The assessment result of the instrument is compared with the result of the assessment by rula assessors. To sum up, there is no significant difference of assessment by the instrument with an assessment by an assessor.

Development of Internal System of Education Quality Assessment at a University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalimullin, Aydar M.; Khodyreva, Elena ?.; Koinova-Zoellner, Julia

2016-01-01

The urgency of the research is determined by the need to ensure the quality of higher education an essential factor of which is development of the internal assessment system for educational activities at universities. The aim of the article is validation of the model of development of the internal assessment system for educational activities at…

Developing a Construct-Based Assessment to Examine Students' Analogical Reasoning around Physical Models in Earth Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rivet, Ann E.; Kastens, Kim A.

2012-01-01

In recent years, science education has placed increasing importance on learners' mastery of scientific reasoning. This growing emphasis presents a challenge for both developers and users of assessments. We report on our effort around the conceptualization, development, and testing the validity of an assessment of students' ability to reason around…

Assessment and Evaluation of National Human Resource Development System Competitiveness in Emerging Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oh, HunSeok; Seo, DongIn; Kim, JuSeuk; Yoo, SangOk; Seong, HeeChang

2015-01-01

This study assessed and evaluated the competitiveness of national human resource development (NHRD) systems in emerging countries with potential for growth. The literature on emerging countries and NHRD systems was reviewed. The study developed a model mechanism with forty-one indices and nine sub-components for the NHRD system assessment in…

Development and external validation of new ultrasound-based mathematical models for preoperative prediction of high-risk endometrial cancer.

PubMed

Van Holsbeke, C; Ameye, L; Testa, A C; Mascilini, F; Lindqvist, P; Fischerova, D; Frühauf, F; Fransis, S; de Jonge, E; Timmerman, D; Epstein, E

2014-05-01

To develop and validate strategies, using new ultrasound-based mathematical models, for the prediction of high-risk endometrial cancer and compare them with strategies using previously developed models or the use of preoperative grading only. Women with endometrial cancer were prospectively examined using two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) gray-scale and color Doppler ultrasound imaging. More than 25 ultrasound, demographic and histological variables were analyzed. Two logistic regression models were developed: one 'objective' model using mainly objective variables; and one 'subjective' model including subjective variables (i.e. subjective impression of myometrial and cervical invasion, preoperative grade and demographic variables). The following strategies were validated: a one-step strategy using only preoperative grading and two-step strategies using preoperative grading as the first step and one of the new models, subjective assessment or previously developed models as a second step. One-hundred and twenty-five patients were included in the development set and 211 were included in the validation set. The 'objective' model retained preoperative grade and minimal tumor-free myometrium as variables. The 'subjective' model retained preoperative grade and subjective assessment of myometrial invasion. On external validation, the performance of the new models was similar to that on the development set. Sensitivity for the two-step strategy with the 'objective' model was 78% (95% CI, 69-84%) at a cut-off of 0.50, 82% (95% CI, 74-88%) for the strategy with the 'subjective' model and 83% (95% CI, 75-88%) for that with subjective assessment. Specificity was 68% (95% CI, 58-77%), 72% (95% CI, 62-80%) and 71% (95% CI, 61-79%) respectively. The two-step strategies detected up to twice as many high-risk cases as preoperative grading only. The new models had a significantly higher sensitivity than did previously developed models, at the same specificity. Two-step strategies with 'new' ultrasound-based models predict high-risk endometrial cancers with good accuracy and do this better than do previously developed models. Copyright © 2013 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development and External Validation of a Melanoma Risk Prediction Model Based on Self-assessed Risk Factors.

PubMed

Vuong, Kylie; Armstrong, Bruce K; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Lund, Eiliv; Adami, Hans-Olov; Veierod, Marit B; Barrett, Jennifer H; Davies, John R; Bishop, D Timothy; Whiteman, David C; Olsen, Catherine M; Hopper, John L; Mann, Graham J; Cust, Anne E; McGeechan, Kevin

2016-08-01

Identifying individuals at high risk of melanoma can optimize primary and secondary prevention strategies. To develop and externally validate a risk prediction model for incident first-primary cutaneous melanoma using self-assessed risk factors. We used unconditional logistic regression to develop a multivariable risk prediction model. Relative risk estimates from the model were combined with Australian melanoma incidence and competing mortality rates to obtain absolute risk estimates. A risk prediction model was developed using the Australian Melanoma Family Study (629 cases and 535 controls) and externally validated using 4 independent population-based studies: the Western Australia Melanoma Study (511 case-control pairs), Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls), Epigene-QSkin Study (44 544, of which 766 with melanoma), and Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health Cohort Study (49 259 women, of which 273 had melanoma). We validated model performance internally and externally by assessing discrimination using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Additionally, using the Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health Cohort Study, we assessed model calibration and clinical usefulness. The risk prediction model included hair color, nevus density, first-degree family history of melanoma, previous nonmelanoma skin cancer, and lifetime sunbed use. On internal validation, the AUC was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67-0.73). On external validation, the AUC was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63-0.69) in the Western Australia Melanoma Study, 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70) in the Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study, 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62-0.66) in the Epigene-QSkin Study, and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.60-0.67) in the Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health Cohort Study. Model calibration showed close agreement between predicted and observed numbers of incident melanomas across all deciles of predicted risk. In the external validation setting, there was higher net benefit when using the risk prediction model to classify individuals as high risk compared with classifying all individuals as high risk. The melanoma risk prediction model performs well and may be useful in prevention interventions reliant on a risk assessment using self-assessed risk factors.

Model development for the assessment of terrestrial and aquatic habitat quality in conservation planning.

PubMed

Terrado, Marta; Sabater, Sergi; Chaplin-Kramer, Becky; Mandle, Lisa; Ziv, Guy; Acuña, Vicenç

2016-01-01

There is a growing pressure of human activities on natural habitats, which leads to biodiversity losses. To mitigate the impact of human activities, environmental policies are developed and implemented, but their effects are commonly not well understood because of the lack of tools to predict the effects of conservation policies on habitat quality and/or diversity. We present a straightforward model for the simultaneous assessment of terrestrial and aquatic habitat quality in river basins as a function of land use and anthropogenic threats to habitat that could be applied under different management scenarios to help understand the trade-offs of conservation actions. We modify the InVEST model for the assessment of terrestrial habitat quality and extend it to freshwater habitats. We assess the reliability of the model in a severely impaired basin by comparing modeled results to observed terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity data. Estimated habitat quality is significantly correlated with observed terrestrial vascular plant richness (R(2)=0.76) and diversity of aquatic macroinvertebrates (R(2)=0.34), as well as with ecosystem functions such as in-stream phosphorus retention (R(2)=0.45). After that, we analyze different scenarios to assess the suitability of the model to inform changes in habitat quality under different conservation strategies. We believe that the developed model can be useful to assess potential levels of biodiversity, and to support conservation planning given its capacity to forecast the effects of management actions in river basins. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

AN INTEGRATED PERSPECTIVE ON THE ASSESSMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES: INTEGRATE-HTA.

PubMed

Wahlster, Philip; Brereton, Louise; Burns, Jacob; Hofmann, Björn; Mozygemba, Kati; Oortwijn, Wija; Pfadenhauer, Lisa; Polus, Stephanie; Rehfuess, Eva; Schilling, Imke; van der Wilt, Gert Jan; Gerhardus, Ansgar

2017-01-01

Current health technology assessment (HTA) is not well equipped to assess complex technologies as insufficient attention is being paid to the diversity in patient characteristics and preferences, context, and implementation. Strategies to integrate these and several other aspects, such as ethical considerations, in a comprehensive assessment are missing. The aim of the European research project INTEGRATE-HTA was to develop a model for an integrated HTA of complex technologies. A multi-method, four-stage approach guided the development of the INTEGRATE-HTA Model: (i) definition of the different dimensions of information to be integrated, (ii) literature review of existing methods for integration, (iii) adjustment of concepts and methods for assessing distinct aspects of complex technologies in the frame of an integrated process, and (iv) application of the model in a case study and subsequent revisions. The INTEGRATE-HTA Model consists of five steps, each involving stakeholders: (i) definition of the technology and the objective of the HTA; (ii) development of a logic model to provide a structured overview of the technology and the system in which it is embedded; (iii) evidence assessment on effectiveness, economic, ethical, legal, and socio-cultural aspects, taking variability of participants, context, implementation issues, and their interactions into account; (iv) populating the logic model with the data generated in step 3; (v) structured process of decision-making. The INTEGRATE-HTA Model provides a structured process for integrated HTAs of complex technologies. Stakeholder involvement in all steps is essential as a means of ensuring relevance and meaningful interpretation of the evidence.

An overview of Airborne Data for Assessing Models (ADAM): a web development effort to effectively disseminate airborne data products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mangosing, D. C.; Chen, G.; Kusterer, J.; Rinsland, P.; Perez, J.; Sorlie, S.; Parker, L.

2011-12-01

One of the objectives of the NASA Langley Research Center's MEaSURES project, "Creating a Unified Airborne Database for Model Assessment", is the development of airborne Earth System Data Records (ESDR) for the regional and global model assessment and validation activities performed by the tropospheric chemistry and climate modeling communities. The ongoing development of ADAM, a web site designed to access a unified, standardized and relational ESDR database, meets this objective. The ESDR database is derived from publically available data sets, from NASA airborne field studies to airborne and in-situ studies sponsored by NOAA, NSF, and numerous international partners. The ADAM web development activities provide an opportunity to highlight a growing synergy between the Airborne Science Data for Atmospheric Composition (ASD-AC) group at NASA Langley and the NASA Langley's Atmospheric Sciences Data Center (ASDC). These teams will collaborate on the ADAM web application by leveraging the state-of-the-art service and message-oriented data distribution architecture developed and implemented by ASDC and using a web-based tool provided by the ASD-AC group whose user interface accommodates the nuanced perspective of science users in the atmospheric chemistry and composition and climate modeling communities.

Flight simulator fidelity assessment in a rotorcraft lateral translation maneuver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.; Malsbury, T.; Atencio, A., Jr.

1992-01-01

A model-based methodology for assessing flight simulator fidelity in closed-loop fashion is exercised in analyzing a rotorcraft low-altitude maneuver for which flight test and simulation results were available. The addition of a handling qualities sensitivity function to a previously developed model-based assessment criteria allows an analytical comparison of both performance and handling qualities between simulation and flight test. Model predictions regarding the existence of simulator fidelity problems are corroborated by experiment. The modeling approach is used to assess analytically the effects of modifying simulator characteristics on simulator fidelity.

Integrating a flexible modeling framework (FMF) with the network security assessment instrument to reduce software security risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilliam, D. P.; Powell, J. D.

2002-01-01

This paper presents a portion of an overall research project on the generation of the network security assessment instrument to aid developers in assessing and assuring the security of software in the development and maintenance lifecycles.

HRST architecture modeling and assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comstock, Douglas A.

1997-01-01

This paper presents work supporting the assessment of advanced concept options for the Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST) study. It describes the development of computer models as the basis for creating an integrated capability to evaluate the economic feasibility and sustainability of a variety of system architectures. It summarizes modeling capabilities for use on the HRST study to perform sensitivity analysis of alternative architectures (consisting of different combinations of highly reusable vehicles, launch assist systems, and alternative operations and support concepts) in terms of cost, schedule, performance, and demand. In addition, the identification and preliminary assessment of alternative market segments for HRST applications, such as space manufacturing, space tourism, etc., is described. Finally, the development of an initial prototype model that can begin to be used for modeling alternative HRST concepts at the system level is presented.

Riluzole does not improve lifespan or motor function in three ALS mouse models.

PubMed

Hogg, Marion C; Halang, Luise; Woods, Ina; Coughlan, Karen S; Prehn, Jochen H M

2018-08-01

Riluzole is the most widespread therapeutic for treatment of the progressive degenerative disease amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Riluzole gained FDA approval in 1995 before the development of ALS mouse models. We assessed riluzole in three transgenic ALS mouse models: the SOD1 G93A model, the TDP-43 A315T model, and the recently developed FUS (1-359) model. Age, sex and litter-matched mice were treated with riluzole (22 mg/kg) in drinking water or vehicle (DMSO) from symptom onset. Lifespan was assessed and motor function tests were carried out twice weekly to determine whether riluzole slowed disease progression. Riluzole treatment had no significant benefit on lifespan in any of the ALS mouse models tested. Riluzole had no significant impact on decline in motor performance in the FUS (1-359) and SOD1 G93A transgenic mice as assessed by Rotarod and stride length analysis. Riluzole is widely prescribed for ALS patients despite questions surrounding its efficacy. Our data suggest that if riluzole was identified as a therapeutic candidate today it would not progress past pre-clinical assessment. This raises questions about the standards used in pre-clinical assessment of therapeutic candidates for the treatment of ALS.

Developing the Model of Fuel Injection Process Efficiency Analysis for Injector for Diesel Engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anisimov, M. Yu; Kayukov, S. S.; Gorshkalev, A. A.; Belousov, A. V.; Gallyamov, R. E.; Lysenko, Yu D.

2018-01-01

The article proposes an assessment option for analysing the quality of fuel injection by the injector constituting the development of calculation blocks in a common injector model within LMS Imagine.Lab AMESim. The parameters of the injector model in the article correspond to the serial injector Common Rail-type with solenoid. The possibilities of this approach are demonstrated with providing the results using the example of modelling the modified injector. Following the research results, the advantages of the proposed approach to analysing assessing the fuel injection quality were detected.

Aerosol Modeling for the Global Model Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weisenstein, Debra K.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.

2001-01-01

The goal of this project is to develop an aerosol module to be used within the framework of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). The model development work will be preformed jointly by the University of Michigan and AER, using existing aerosol models at the two institutions as starting points. The GMI aerosol model will be tested, evaluated against observations, and then applied to assessment of the effects of aircraft sulfur emissions as needed by the NASA Subsonic Assessment in 2001. The work includes the following tasks: 1. Implementation of the sulfur cycle within GMI, including sources, sinks, and aqueous conversion of sulfur. Aerosol modules will be added as they are developed and the GMI schedule permits. 2. Addition of aerosol types other than sulfate particles, including dust, soot, organic carbon, and black carbon. 3. Development of new and more efficient parameterizations for treating sulfate aerosol nucleation, condensation, and coagulation among different particle sizes and types.

Spiritual AIM and the work of the chaplain: a model for assessing spiritual needs and outcomes in relationship.

PubMed

Shields, Michele; Kestenbaum, Allison; Dunn, Laura B

2015-02-01

Distinguishing the unique contributions and roles of chaplains as members of healthcare teams requires the fundamental step of articulating and critically evaluating conceptual models that guide practice. However, there is a paucity of well-described spiritual assessment models. Even fewer of the extant models prescribe interventions and describe desired outcomes corresponding to spiritual assessments. This article describes the development, theoretical underpinnings, and key components of one model, called the Spiritual Assessment and Intervention Model (Spiritual AIM). Three cases are presented that illustrate Spiritual AIM in practice. Spiritual AIM was developed over the past 20 years to address the limitations of existing models. The model evolved based in part on observing how different people respond to a health crisis and what kinds of spiritual needs appear to emerge most prominently during a health crisis. Spiritual AIM provides a conceptual framework for the chaplain to diagnose an individual's primary unmet spiritual need, devise and implement a plan for addressing this need through embodiment/relationship, and articulate and evaluate the desired and actual outcome of the intervention. Spiritual AIM's multidisciplinary theory is consistent with the goals of professional chaplaincy training and practice, which emphasize the integration of theology, recognition of interpersonal dynamics, cultural humility and competence, ethics, and theories of human development. Further conceptual and empirical work is needed to systematically refine, evaluate, and disseminate well-articulated spiritual assessment models such as Spiritual AIM. This foundational work is vital to advancing chaplaincy as a theoretically grounded and empirically rigorous healthcare profession.

Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, J. L.; Neely, M. A.; Curran, F. M.; Christensen, E. R.; Escher, D.; Lovell, N.; Morris, Charles (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) has developed a flexible systems analysis framework to identify long-term technology needs, quantify payoffs for technology investments, and assess the progress of ASTP-sponsored technology programs in the hypersonics area. For this, ITAC has assembled an experienced team representing a broad sector of the aerospace community and developed a systematic assessment process complete with supporting tools. Concepts for transportation systems are selected based on relevance to the ASTP and integrated concept models (ICM) of these concepts are developed. Key technologies of interest are identified and projections are made of their characteristics with respect to their impacts on key aspects of the specific concepts of interest. Both the models and technology projections are then fed into the ITAC's probabilistic systems analysis framework in ModelCenter. This framework permits rapid sensitivity analysis, single point design assessment, and a full probabilistic assessment of each concept with respect to both embedded and enhancing technologies. Probabilistic outputs are weighed against metrics of interest to ASTP using a multivariate decision making process to provide inputs for technology prioritization within the ASTP. ITAC program is currently finishing the assessment of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO), rocket-based combined cycle (RBCC) concept and a TSTO turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) concept developed by the team with inputs from NASA. A baseline all rocket TSTO concept is also being developed for comparison. Boeing has recently submitted a performance model for their Flexible Aerospace System Solution for Tomorrow (FASST) concept and the ISAT program will provide inputs for a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) TBCC based concept in the near-term. Both of these latter concepts will be analyzed within the ITAC framework over the summer. This paper provides a status update of the ITAC program.

Thermodynamic assessment of the U–La–O system

DOE PAGES

McMurray, J. W.; Shin, D.; Besmann, T. M.

2014-10-03

The CALPHAD methodology was used to develop a thermodynamic assessment of the U-La-O system. The solid solution and liquid phases are described with the compound energy formalism and the partially ionic two-sublattice liquid model respectively. A density functional theory (DFT) calculation for the lattice stability of the fictive lanthanum oxide fluorite structure compound is used to determine the Gibbs energies for the La containing end-members in the CEF model for U 1-yLa yO 2+x. Experimental thermodynamic and phase equilibria data were then used in optimizations to develop representations of the phases in the system that can be extended to includemore » other actinide and fission products to develop multi-component models. The models that comprise this assessment very well reproduce experimentally determined oxygen potentials and the observed phase relations for the U-La-O system.« less

Bridging the etiologic and prognostic outlooks in individualized assessment of absolute risk of an illness: application in lung cancer.

PubMed

Karp, Igor; Sylvestre, Marie-Pierre; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Leffondré, Karen; Siemiatycki, Jack

2016-11-01

Assessment of individual risk of illness is an important activity in preventive medicine. Development of risk-assessment models has heretofore relied predominantly on studies involving follow-up of cohort-type populations, while case-control studies have generally been considered unfit for this purpose. To present a method for individualized assessment of absolute risk of an illness (as illustrated by lung cancer) based on data from a 'non-nested' case-control study. We used data from a case-control study conducted in Montreal, Canada in 1996-2001. Individuals diagnosed with lung cancer (n = 920) and age- and sex-matched lung-cancer-free subjects (n = 1288) completed questionnaires documenting life-time cigarette-smoking history and occupational, medical, and family history. Unweighted and weighted logistic models were fitted. Model overfitting was assessed using bootstrap-based cross-validation and 'shrinkage.' The discriminating ability was assessed by the c-statistic, and the risk-stratifying performance was assessed by examination of the variability in risk estimates over hypothetical risk-profiles. In the logistic models, the logarithm of incidence-density of lung cancer was expressed as a function of age, sex, cigarette-smoking history, history of respiratory conditions and exposure to occupational carcinogens, and family history of lung cancer. The models entailed a minimal degree of overfitting ('shrinkage' factor: 0.97 for both unweighted and weighted models) and moderately high discriminating ability (c-statistic: 0.82 for the unweighted model and 0.66 for the weighted model). The method's risk-stratifying performance was quite high. The presented method allows for individualized assessment of risk of lung cancer and can be used for development of risk-assessment models for other illnesses.

AN APPROACH TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODELS TO QUANTITATIVELY ASSESS THE EFFECTS OF EXPOSURE TO ENVIRONMENTALLY RELEVANT LEVELS OF ENDOCRINE DISRUPTORS

EPA Science Inventory

An approach to the development of quantitative models to assess the effects of exposure to environmentally relevant levels of endocrine disruptors on homeostasis in adults.

Ben-Jonathan N, Cooper RL, Foster P, Hughes CL, Hoyer PB, Klotz D, Kohn M, Lamb DJ, Stancel GM.
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Assessing crown fire potential by linking models of surface and crown fire behavior

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott; Elizabeth D. Reinhardt

2001-01-01

Fire managers are increasingly concerned about the threat of crown fires, yet only now are quantitative methods for assessing crown fire hazard being developed. Links among existing mathematical models of fire behavior are used to develop two indices of crown fire hazard-the Torching Index and Crowning Index. These indices can be used to ordinate different forest...

The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

A Framework for Linking Population Model Development with Ecological Risk Assessment Objectives.

EPA Science Inventory

The value of models that link organism‐level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERAs) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism&#...

Approaches for Increasing Acceptance of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models in Public Health Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have great potential for application in regulatory and non-regulatory public health risk assessment. The development and application of PBPK models in chemical toxicology has grown steadily since their emergence in the 1980s. Ho...

Hybrid finite volume-finite element model for the numerical analysis of furrow irrigation and fertigation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although slowly abandoned in developed countries, furrow irrigation systems continue to be a dominant irrigation method in developing countries. Numerical models represent powerful tools to assess irrigation and fertigation efficiency. While several models have been proposed in the past, the develop...

Waste-to-energy: A review of life cycle assessment and its extension methods.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhaozhi; Tang, Yuanjun; Chi, Yong; Ni, Mingjiang; Buekens, Alfons

2018-01-01

This article proposes a comprehensive review of evaluation tools based on life cycle thinking, as applied to waste-to-energy. Habitually, life cycle assessment is adopted to assess environmental burdens associated with waste-to-energy initiatives. Based on this framework, several extension methods have been developed to focus on specific aspects: Exergetic life cycle assessment for reducing resource depletion, life cycle costing for evaluating its economic burden, and social life cycle assessment for recording its social impacts. Additionally, the environment-energy-economy model integrates both life cycle assessment and life cycle costing methods and judges simultaneously these three features for sustainable waste-to-energy conversion. Life cycle assessment is sufficiently developed on waste-to-energy with concrete data inventory and sensitivity analysis, although the data and model uncertainty are unavoidable. Compared with life cycle assessment, only a few evaluations are conducted to waste-to-energy techniques by using extension methods and its methodology and application need to be further developed. Finally, this article succinctly summarises some recommendations for further research.

Proceedings for a Workshop on Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Their Role in Sustainable Development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briskey, Joseph A.; Schulz, Klaus J.

2007-01-01

The world's use of nonfuel mineral resources continues to increase to support a growing population and increasing standards of living. The ability to meet this increasing demand is affected especially by concerns about possible environmental degradation associated with minerals production and by competing land uses. What information does the world need to support global minerals development in a sustainable way?Informed planning and decisions concerning sustainability and future mineral resource supply require a long–term perspective and an integrated approach to resource, land use, economic, and environmental management worldwide. Such perspective and approach require unbiased information on the global distribution of identified and especially undiscovered resources, the economic and political factors influencing their development, and the potential environmental consequences of their exploitation.The U.S. Geological Survey and the former Deposit Modeling Program of the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) sponsored a workshop on "Deposit Modeling, Mineral Resource Assessment, and Their Role in Sustainable Development" at the 31st International Geological Congress (IGC) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on August 18–19, 2000. The purpose of the workshop was to review the state-of-the-art in mineral deposit modeling and resource assessment and to examine the role of global assessments of nonfuel mineral resources in sustainable development.The workshop addressed questions such as the following: Which of the available mineral deposit models and assessment methods are best suited for predicting the locations, deposit types, and amounts of undiscovered nonfuel mineral resources remaining in the world? What is the availability of global geologic, mineral deposit, and mineral exploration information? How can mineral resource assessments be used to address economic and environmental issues? Presentations included overviews of assessment methods applied in previous national and other small-scale assessments of large regions and of the resulting assessment products and their uses.Twenty-seven people from Canada, China, Finland, Germany, Japan, Peru, Slovenia, South Africa, United States, and Venezuela participated in the 2-day post-Congress workshop. The attendees represented academia, government, environmental organizations, and the mining industry.

Conditional Toxicity Value (CTV) Predictor: An In Silico Approach for Generating Quantitative Risk Estimates for Chemicals.

PubMed

Wignall, Jessica A; Muratov, Eugene; Sedykh, Alexander; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Tropsha, Alexander; Rusyn, Ivan; Chiu, Weihsueh A

2018-05-01

Human health assessments synthesize human, animal, and mechanistic data to produce toxicity values that are key inputs to risk-based decision making. Traditional assessments are data-, time-, and resource-intensive, and they cannot be developed for most environmental chemicals owing to a lack of appropriate data. As recommended by the National Research Council, we propose a solution for predicting toxicity values for data-poor chemicals through development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models. We used a comprehensive database of chemicals with existing regulatory toxicity values from U.S. federal and state agencies to develop quantitative QSAR models. We compared QSAR-based model predictions to those based on high-throughput screening (HTS) assays. QSAR models for noncancer threshold-based values and cancer slope factors had cross-validation-based Q 2 of 0.25-0.45, mean model errors of 0.70-1.11 log 10 units, and applicability domains covering >80% of environmental chemicals. Toxicity values predicted from QSAR models developed in this study were more accurate and precise than those based on HTS assays or mean-based predictions. A publicly accessible web interface to make predictions for any chemical of interest is available at http://toxvalue.org. An in silico tool that can predict toxicity values with an uncertainty of an order of magnitude or less can be used to quickly and quantitatively assess risks of environmental chemicals when traditional toxicity data or human health assessments are unavailable. This tool can fill a critical gap in the risk assessment and management of data-poor chemicals. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2998.

Construction, implementation, and evaluation of an undergraduate biology laboratory teaching model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarrant, Todd M.

This dissertation documents a time series study in which an undergraduate non-majors biology laboratory was revised, leading to the development of a new teaching model. The course model was developed at a large Midwestern university enrolling about 827 students in 32 sections per semester and using graduate teaching assistants as primary instructors. The majority of the students consisted of freshman and sophomores, with the remainder being juniors and seniors. This dissertation explains the rationale leading to the development and implementation of this educational model using graduate teaching assistants as the primary course instructors and embedded course assessment as evidence of its success. The major components of this model include six major items including: learning community, course design, GTA professional development, course delivery, assessment, and the filter. The major aspects of this model include clear links between instruction, GTA professional development, embedded assessment (student and GTA), course revision, student perceptions, and performance. The model includes the following components: Formal and informal discourse in the learning community, teaching assistant professional development, the use of multiple assessment tools, a filter to guide course evaluation, and redirection and delivery of course content based on embedded formal course assessment. Teaching assistants receive both initial and ongoing professional development throughout the semester in effective instructional pedagogy from an instructor of record. Results for three years of operation show a significant increase in student biology content knowledge and the use of scientific process/critical thinking skills with mean improvement in student performance of 25.5% and 18.9% respectively. Mean attendance for ISB 208L is 95% for the six semesters of this study showing students regularly attend the laboratory classes and remain in the course with a completion rate of 93%. Additionally, grade point averages have remained high (mean of 3.3 for ISB 208L) while question cognitive level used on course assignments and tests has increased each semester while assignment weight has remained constant. Students indicate through SIRS data that the course is relevant to their lives, emphasizes understanding of ideas, concepts, and encourages students to think about the relationship between science and society. This study is significant in that it provides a description of a field tested working model for all aspects of a course that has large student enrollment, uses graduate teaching assistants as primary instructors, embedded course assessment, ongoing professional development, and general applicability in being transferable to other courses.

Teaching and assessing procedural skills using simulation: metrics and methodology.

PubMed

Lammers, Richard L; Davenport, Moira; Korley, Frederick; Griswold-Theodorson, Sharon; Fitch, Michael T; Narang, Aneesh T; Evans, Leigh V; Gross, Amy; Rodriguez, Elliot; Dodge, Kelly L; Hamann, Cara J; Robey, Walter C

2008-11-01

Simulation allows educators to develop learner-focused training and outcomes-based assessments. However, the effectiveness and validity of simulation-based training in emergency medicine (EM) requires further investigation. Teaching and testing technical skills require methods and assessment instruments that are somewhat different than those used for cognitive or team skills. Drawing from work published by other medical disciplines as well as educational, behavioral, and human factors research, the authors developed six research themes: measurement of procedural skills; development of performance standards; assessment and validation of training methods, simulator models, and assessment tools; optimization of training methods; transfer of skills learned on simulator models to patients; and prevention of skill decay over time. The article reviews relevant and established educational research methodologies and identifies gaps in our knowledge of how physicians learn procedures. The authors present questions requiring further research that, once answered, will advance understanding of simulation-based procedural training and assessment in EM.

Developing Mathematical Provisions for Assessment of Liquid Hydrocarbon Emissions in Emergency Situations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zemenkova, M. Yu; Zemenkov, Yu D.; Shantarin, V. D.

2016-10-01

The paper reviews the development of methodology for calculation of hydrocarbon emissions during seepage and evaporation to monitor the reliability and safety of hydrocarbon storage and transportation. The authors have analyzed existing methods, models and techniques for assessing the amount of evaporated oil. Models used for predicting the material balance of multicomponent two-phase systems have been discussed. The results of modeling the open-air hydrocarbon evaporation from an oil spill are provided and exemplified by an emergency pit. Dependences and systems of differential equations have been obtained to assess parameters of mass transfer from the open surface of a liquid multicomponent mixture.

Mouse and Rat Models of Induction of Hepatic Fibrosis and Assessment of Portal Hypertension.

PubMed

Klein, Sabine; Schierwagen, Robert; Uschner, Frank Erhard; Trebicka, Jonel

2017-01-01

Portal hypertension either develops due to progressive liver fibrosis or is the consequence of vascular liver diseases such as portal vein thrombosis or non-cirrhotic portal hypertension. This chapter focuses on different rodent models of liver fibrosis with portal hypertension and also in few non-cirrhotic portal hypertension models. Importantly, after the development of portal hypertension, the proper assessment of drug effects in the portal and systemic circulation should be discussed. The last part of the chapter is dedicated in these techniques to assess the in vivo hemodynamics and the ex vivo techniques of the isolated liver perfusion and vascular contractility.

What can we learn from PISA?: Investigating PISA's approach to scientific literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, Cheryl Jean

This dissertation is an investigation of the relationship between the multidimensional conception of scientific literacy and its assessment. The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), developed under the auspices of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), offers a unique opportunity to evaluate the assessment of scientific literacy. PISA developed a continuum of performance for scientific literacy across three competencies (i.e., process, content, and situation). Foundational to the interpretation of PISA science assessment is PISA's definition of scientific literacy, which I argue incorporates three themes drawn from history: (a) scientific way of thinking, (b) everyday relevance of science, and (c) scientific literacy for all students. Three coordinated studies were conducted to investigate the validity of PISA science assessment and offer insight into the development of items to assess scientific 2 literacy. Multidimensional models of the internal structure of the PISA 2003 science items were found not to reflect the complex character of PISA's definition of scientific literacy. Although the multidimensional models across the three competencies significantly decreased the G2 statistic from the unidimensional model, high correlations between the dimensions suggest that the dimensions are similar. A cognitive analysis of student verbal responses to PISA science items revealed that students were using competencies of scientific literacy, but the competencies were not elicited by the PISA science items at the depth required by PISA's definition of scientific literacy. Although student responses contained only knowledge of scientific facts and simple scientific concepts, students were using more complex skills to interpret and communicate their responses. Finally the investigation of different scoring approaches and item response models illustrated different ways to interpret student responses to assessment items. These analyses highlighted the complexities of students' responses to the PISA science items and the use of the ordered partition model to accommodate different but equal item responses. The results of the three investigations are used to discuss ways to improve the development and interpretation of PISA's science items.

Outdoor Leader Career Development: Exploration of a Career Path

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagstaff, Mark

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy of the proposed Outdoor Leader Career Development Model (OLCDM) through the development of the Outdoor Leader Career Development Inventory (OLCDI). I assessed the reliability and validity of the OLCDI through exploratory factor analysis, principal component analysis, and varimax rotation, based…

Using the learning management evaluation model for advancing to life skills of lower secondary students in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kansaart, Preecha; Suikraduang, Arun; Panya, Piyatida

2018-01-01

The aims of this research study were to develop the Learning Management Evaluation Model (LMEM) for advancing to lower secondary students of their life skills in the 21st century with the Research & Development process technique. The research procedures were administered of four steps that composed of analyze, the synthetic indicator to assess learning to advance to their life skills in the 21st century by the 4-educational experts were interviewed. The LMEM model was developed by the information from the first draft format and the educational experts to check a suitability and feasibility of the draft assessment form with a technical symposium multipath characteristics to find consensus dimensional (Multi-Attribute Consensus Reaching: MACR) by 12 specialists who provided the instruction in the form of Assessment and Evaluation Guide (AEG) was brought to five the number of professionals who ensure the proper coverage, a clear assessment of the manual before using the AEG. The LMEM model was to trial at an experiment with different schools in the Secondary Educational Office Area 26 (Maha Sarakham) whereas taught at the upper secondary educational school with the sample consisted of 7 schools with the purposive sampling was selected. Assessing the LMEM model was evaluated the based on the evaluation criteria of the educational development. The assessor was related to the trial consisted of 35 evaluators. Using the interview form with the rubric score and a five rating scale level was analyzed; the qualitative and quantitative data were used. It has found that: The LMEM evaluation model of learning to advance to life skills of students in the 21st century was a chart structure that ties together of 6 relevant components of the evaluation such as; the purpose of the assessment, the evaluation focused assessment methods, the evaluator, the evaluation technique, and the evaluation criteria. The evaluation targets were to assess the management of learning, the factors contributing to learning, feature teacher management learning, and the learning outcomes. Evaluating methods included with the evaluation process, the tool used to evaluate, and duration to assess. Assessing the LMEM model of learning to advance to students of their life skills in the 21st century were appropriated ability. Students' responses of their opportune, practicability, reasonableness, and respectability in terms of overall benefit at a high level are provided.

Toward Dynamic Ocean Management: Fisheries assessment and climate projections informed by community developed habitat models based on dynamic coastal oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohut, J. T.; Manderson, J.; Palamara, L. J.; Saba, V. S.; Saba, G.; Hare, J. A.; Curchitser, E. N.; Moore, P.; Seibel, B.; DiDomenico, G.

2016-12-01

Through a multidisciplinary study group of experts in marine ecology, physical oceanography and stock assessment from the fishing industry, government and academia we developed a method to explicitly account for shifting habitat distributions in fish population assessments. We used data from field surveys throughout the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to develop a parametric thermal niche model for an important short-lived pelagic forage fish, Atlantic Butterfish. This niche model was coupled to a hindcast of daily bottom water temperature derived from a regional numerical ocean model in order to project daily thermal habitat suitability over the last 40 years. This ecological hindcast was used to estimate the proportion of thermal habitat suitability available on the U.S. Northeast Shelf that was sampled on fishery-independent surveys, accounting for the relative motions of thermal habitat and the trajectory of sampling on the survey. The method and habitat based estimates of availability was integrated into the catchability estimate used to scale population size in the butterfish stock assessment model accepted by the reviewers of the 59th NEFSC stock assessment review, as well as the mid-Atlantic Council's Scientific and Statistical Committee. The contribution of the availability estimate (along with an estimate of detectability) allowed for the development of fishery reference points, a change in stock status from unknown to known, and the establishment of a directed fishery with an allocation of 20,000 metric tons of quota. This presentation will describe how a community based workgroup utilized ocean observing technologies combined with ocean models to better understand the physical ocean that structures marine ecosystems. Using these approaches we will discuss opportunities to inform ecological hindcasts and climate projections with mechanistic models that link species-specific physiology to climate-based thermal scenarios.

Toward Dynamic Ocean Management: Fisheries assessment and climate projections informed by community developed habitat models based on dynamic coastal oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohut, J. T.; Manderson, J.; Palamara, L. J.; Saba, V. S.; Saba, G.; Hare, J. A.; Curchitser, E. N.; Moore, P.; Seibel, B.; DiDomenico, G.

2016-02-01

Through a multidisciplinary study group of experts in marine ecology, physical oceanography and stock assessment from the fishing industry, government and academia we developed a method to explicitly account for shifting habitat distributions in fish population assessments. We used data from field surveys throughout the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to develop a parametric thermal niche model for an important short-lived pelagic forage fish, Atlantic Butterfish. This niche model was coupled to a hindcast of daily bottom water temperature derived from a regional numerical ocean model in order to project daily thermal habitat suitability over the last 40 years. This ecological hindcast was used to estimate the proportion of thermal habitat suitability available on the U.S. Northeast Shelf that was sampled on fishery-independent surveys, accounting for the relative motions of thermal habitat and the trajectory of sampling on the survey. The method and habitat based estimates of availability was integrated into the catchability estimate used to scale population size in the butterfish stock assessment model accepted by the reviewers of the 59th NEFSC stock assessment review, as well as the mid-Atlantic Council's Scientific and Statistical Committee. The contribution of the availability estimate (along with an estimate of detectability) allowed for the development of fishery reference points, a change in stock status from unknown to known, and the establishment of a directed fishery with an allocation of 20,000 metric tons of quota. This presentation will describe how a community based workgroup utilized ocean observing technologies combined with ocean models to better understand the physical ocean that structures marine ecosystems. Using these approaches we will discuss opportunities to inform ecological hindcasts and climate projections with mechanistic models that link species-specific physiology to climate-based thermal scenarios.

Development and validation of risk models and molecular diagnostics to permit personalized management of cancer.

PubMed

Pu, Xia; Ye, Yuanqing; Wu, Xifeng

2014-01-01

Despite the advances made in cancer management over the past few decades, improvements in cancer diagnosis and prognosis are still poor, highlighting the need for individualized strategies. Toward this goal, risk prediction models and molecular diagnostic tools have been developed, tailoring each step of risk assessment from diagnosis to treatment and clinical outcomes based on the individual's clinical, epidemiological, and molecular profiles. These approaches hold increasing promise for delivering a new paradigm to maximize the efficiency of cancer surveillance and efficacy of treatment. However, they require stringent study design, methodology development, comprehensive assessment of biomarkers and risk factors, and extensive validation to ensure their overall usefulness for clinical translation. In the current study, the authors conducted a systematic review using breast cancer as an example and provide general guidelines for risk prediction models and molecular diagnostic tools, including development, assessment, and validation. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

Assessment of Programming Language Learning Based on Peer Code Review Model: Implementation and Experience Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Yanqing; Li, Hang; Feng, Yuqiang; Jiang, Yu; Liu, Ying

2012-01-01

The traditional assessment approach, in which one single written examination counts toward a student's total score, no longer meets new demands of programming language education. Based on a peer code review process model, we developed an online assessment system called "EduPCR" and used a novel approach to assess the learning of computer…

Population modeling for pesticide risk assessment of threatened species-A case study of a terrestrial plant, Boltonia decurrens.

PubMed

Schmolke, Amelie; Brain, Richard; Thorbek, Pernille; Perkins, Daniel; Forbes, Valery

2017-02-01

Although population models are recognized as necessary tools in the ecological risk assessment of pesticides, particularly for species listed under the Endangered Species Act, their application in this context is currently limited to very few cases. The authors developed a detailed, individual-based population model for a threatened plant species, the decurrent false aster (Boltonia decurrens), for application in pesticide risk assessment. Floods and competition with other plant species are known factors that drive the species' population dynamics and were included in the model approach. The authors use the model to compare the population-level effects of 5 toxicity surrogates applied to B. decurrens under varying environmental conditions. The model results suggest that the environmental conditions under which herbicide applications occur may have a higher impact on populations than organism-level sensitivities to an herbicide within a realistic range. Indirect effects may be as important as the direct effects of herbicide applications by shifting competition strength if competing species have different sensitivities to the herbicide. The model approach provides a case study for population-level risk assessments of listed species. Population-level effects of herbicides can be assessed in a realistic and species-specific context, and uncertainties can be addressed explicitly. The authors discuss how their approach can inform the future development and application of modeling for population-level risk assessments of listed species, and ecological risk assessment in general. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:480-491. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Assessment of sustainable urban transport development based on entropy and unascertained measure.

PubMed

Li, Yancang; Yang, Jing; Shi, Huawang; Li, Yijie

2017-01-01

To find a more effective method for the assessment of sustainable urban transport development, the comprehensive assessment model of sustainable urban transport development was established based on the unascertained measure. On the basis of considering the factors influencing urban transport development, the comprehensive assessment indexes were selected, including urban economical development, transport demand, environment quality and energy consumption, and the assessment system of sustainable urban transport development was proposed. In view of different influencing factors of urban transport development, the index weight was calculated through the entropy weight coefficient method. Qualitative and quantitative analyses were conducted according to the actual condition. Then, the grade was obtained by using the credible degree recognition criterion from which the urban transport development level can be determined. Finally, a comprehensive assessment method for urban transport development was introduced. The application practice showed that the method can be used reasonably and effectively for the comprehensive assessment of urban transport development.

Development of the implant surgical technique and assessment rating system

PubMed Central

Park, Jung-Chul; Hwang, Ji-Wan; Lee, Jung-Seok; Jung, Ui-Won; Choi, Seong-Ho; Cho, Kyoo-Sung; Chai, Jung-Kiu

2012-01-01

Purpose There has been no attempt to establish an objective implant surgical evaluation protocol to assess residents' surgical competence and improve their surgical outcomes. The present study presents a newly developed assessment and rating system and simulation model that can assist the teaching staffs to evaluate the surgical events and surgical skills of residents objectively. Methods Articles published in peer-reviewed English journals were selected using several scientific databases and subsequently reviewed regarding surgical competence and assessment tools. Particularly, medical journals reporting rating and evaluation protocols for various types of medical surgeries were thoroughly analyzed. Based on these studies, an implant surgical technique assessment and rating system (iSTAR) has been developed. Also, a specialized dental typodont was developed for the valid and reliable assessment of surgery. Results The iSTAR consists of two parts including surgical information and task-specific checklists. Specialized simulation model was subsequently produced and can be used in combination with iSTAR. Conclusions The assessment and rating system provided may serve as a reference guide for teaching staffs to evaluate the residents' implant surgical techniques. PMID:22413071

MODELS AND MODELING METHODS FOR ASSESSING HUMAN EXPOSURE AND DOSE TO TOXIC CHEMICALS AND POLLUTANTS

EPA Science Inventory

This project aims to strengthen the general scientific foundation of EPA's exposure and risk assessment, management, and policy processes by developing state-of-the-art exposure to dose mathematical models and solution methods. The results of this research will be to produce a mo...

RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSES USING EPA'S ON-LINE SITE-SPECIFIC TRANSPORT MODELS AND FIELD DATA

EPA Science Inventory

EPA has developed a suite of on-line calculators and transport models to aid in risk assessment for subsurface contamination. The calculators (www.epa.gov/athens/onsite) provide several levels of tools and data. These include tools for generating commonly-used model input param...

Assessment of Erysiphe necator ascospore release models for use in the Mediterranean climate of western Oregon

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Predictive models have been developed in several major grape growing regions to correlate environmental conditions to Erysiphe necator ascospore release; however, these models may not accurately predict ascospore release in other viticulture regions with differing climatic conditions. To assess asco...

PREDICTIVE ORGANOPHOSPHORUS (OP) PESTICIDE QSARS AND PBPK/PD MODELS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF SUSCEPTIBLE SUB-POPULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Successful use of the Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) in risk assessment of susceptible human sub-populations, e.g., infants and children, requires input of quality experimental data. In the clear absence of quality data, PBPK models can be developed and possibl...

A Framework for Linking Population Model Development with Ecological Risk Assessment Objectives

EPA Science Inventory

The value of models that link organism-level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERA) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism-level en...

Assessing the Wildlife Habitat Value of New England Salt Marshes: I. Model and Application

EPA Science Inventory

We developed an assessment model to quantify the wildlife habitat value of New England salt marshes based on marsh characteristics and the presence of habitat types that influence habitat use by terrestrial wildlife. Applying the model to12 salt marshes located in Narragansett B...

System for assessing Aviation's Global Emissions (SAGE), part 1 : model description and inventory results

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-07-01

In early 2001, the US Federal Aviation Administration embarked on a multi-year effort to develop a new computer model, the System for assessing Aviation's Global Emissions (SAGE). Currently at Version 1.5, the basic use of the model has centered on t...

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging activities. The method results in the development of LULC maps providing insights into a range of alternative futures using a scope of socio-economic and environmental conditions. A landslides assessment model, the ALICE model is then used as a final tool to analyze the potential impacts of simulated LUCC on landslide risks and the consequences in terms of vulnerability, e.g. changes in disaster risk allocation or characterization, degree of perturbation. This assessment intends to provide insights onto the potential future development of the valley to help identify areas at stake and to guide decision makers to help the risk management. Preliminary results show strong differences of futures land use and land cover maps that have significant influence on landslides hazards.

Evolving PBPK applications in regulatory risk assessment: current situation and future goals

EPA Science Inventory

The presentation includes current applications of PBPK modeling in regulatory risk assessment and discussions on conflicts between assuring consistency with experimental data in current situation and the desire for animal-free model development.

The Development of a Conceptual Framework and Tools to Assess Undergraduates' Principled Use of Models in Cellular Biology

PubMed Central

Merritt, Brett; Urban-Lurain, Mark; Parker, Joyce

2010-01-01

Recent science education reform has been marked by a shift away from a focus on facts toward deep, rich, conceptual understanding. This requires assessment that also focuses on conceptual understanding rather than recall of facts. This study outlines our development of a new assessment framework and tool—a taxonomy— which, unlike existing frameworks and tools, is grounded firmly in a framework that considers the critical role that models play in science. It also provides instructors a resource for assessing students' ability to reason about models that are central to the organization of key scientific concepts. We describe preliminary data arising from the application of our tool to exam questions used by instructors of a large-enrollment cell and molecular biology course over a 5-yr period during which time our framework and the assessment tool were increasingly used. Students were increasingly able to describe and manipulate models of the processes and systems being studied in this course as measured by assessment items. However, their ability to apply these models in new contexts did not improve. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results and the future directions for our research. PMID:21123691

Empirical assessment of debris flow risk on a regional scale in Yunnan province, southwestern China.

PubMed

Liu, Xilin; Yue, Zhong Qi; Tham, Lesliw George; Lee, Chack Fan

2002-08-01

Adopting the definition suggested by the United Nations, a risk model for regional debris flow assessment is presented. Risk is defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability, both of which are necessary for evaluation. A Multiple-Factor Composite Assessment Model is developed for quantifying regional debris flow hazard by taking into account eight variables that contribute to debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occurrence. Vulnerability is a measure of the potential total losses. On a regional scale, it can be measured by the fixed asset, gross domestic product, land resources, population density, as well as the age, education, and wealth of the inhabitants. A nonlinear power-function assessment model that accounts for these indexes is developed. As a case study, the model is applied to compute the hazard, vulnerability and risk for each prefecture of the Yunnan province in southwestern China.

Integrated Model to Assess Cloud Deployment Effectiveness When Developing an IT-strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razumnikov, S.; Prankevich, D.

2016-04-01

Developing an IT-strategy of cloud deployment is a complex issue since even the stage of its formation necessitates revealing what applications will be the best possible to meet the requirements of a company business-strategy, evaluate reliability and safety of cloud providers and analyze staff satisfaction. A system of criteria, as well an integrated model to assess cloud deployment effectiveness is offered. The model makes it possible to identify what applications being at the disposal of a company, as well as new tools to be deployed are reliable and safe enough for implementation in the cloud environment. The data on practical use of the procedure to assess cloud deployment effectiveness by a provider of telecommunication services is presented. The model was used to calculate values of integral indexes of services to be assessed, then, ones, meeting the criteria and answering the business-strategy of a company, were selected.

Security risk assessment: applying the concepts of fuzzy logic.

PubMed

Bajpai, Shailendra; Sachdeva, Anish; Gupta, J P

2010-01-15

Chemical process industries (CPI) handling hazardous chemicals in bulk can be attractive targets for deliberate adversarial actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. It is therefore imperative to have comprehensive security risk management programme including effective security risk assessment techniques. In an earlier work, it has been shown that security risk assessment can be done by conducting threat and vulnerability analysis or by developing Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT). HAZOP type vulnerability assessment sheets can be developed that are scenario based. In SRFT model, important security risk bearing factors such as location, ownership, visibility, inventory, etc., have been used. In this paper, the earlier developed SRFT model has been modified using the concepts of fuzzy logic. In the modified SRFT model, two linguistic fuzzy scales (three-point and four-point) are devised based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Human subjectivity of different experts associated with previous SRFT model is tackled by mapping their scores to the newly devised fuzzy scale. Finally, the fuzzy score thus obtained is defuzzyfied to get the results. A test case of a refinery is used to explain the method and compared with the earlier work.

Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

2016-04-01

Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

Development of the Connected Chemistry as Formative Assessment Pedagogy for High School Chemistry Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Mihwa; Liu, Xiufeng; Waight, Noemi

2017-01-01

This paper describes the development of Connected Chemistry as Formative Assessment (CCFA) pedagogy, which integrates three promising teaching and learning approaches, computer models, formative assessments, and learning progressions, to promote student understanding in chemistry. CCFA supports student learning in making connections among the…

Functional Behavioral Assessments and Intervention Plans in Early Intervention Settings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LaRocque, Michelle; Brown, Sharan E.; Johnson, Kurt L.

2001-01-01

This article advocates the use of functional behavioral assessments (FBAs) and behavior intervention plans (BIPs) in the development of Individualized Family Service Plans for children with or at risk of developing behavioral disorders. It describes the FBA and BIP processes and proposes a parent collaborative model for assessment and…

The Development of a Needs Assessment Process. Occasional Paper Number 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Black, Talbot; And Others

The paper considers the concept of needs assessment in terms of the activities of TADS (Technical Assistance Development System), a project to provide support services to model demonstration projects and state education agency grantees of the Handicapped Children's Early Education Program. Section 1 defines needs assessment, describes approaches…

The Development of Statistics Textbook Supported with ICT and Portfolio-Based Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendikawati, Putriaji; Yuni Arini, Florentina

2016-02-01

This research was development research that aimed to develop and produce a Statistics textbook model that supported with information and communication technology (ICT) and Portfolio-Based Assessment. This book was designed for students of mathematics at the college to improve students’ ability in mathematical connection and communication. There were three stages in this research i.e. define, design, and develop. The textbooks consisted of 10 chapters which each chapter contains introduction, core materials and include examples and exercises. The textbook developed phase begins with the early stages of designed the book (draft 1) which then validated by experts. Revision of draft 1 produced draft 2 which then limited test for readability test book. Furthermore, revision of draft 2 produced textbook draft 3 which simulated on a small sample to produce a valid model textbook. The data were analysed with descriptive statistics. The analysis showed that the Statistics textbook model that supported with ICT and Portfolio-Based Assessment valid and fill up the criteria of practicality.

Finite element models of the thigh-buttock complex for assessing static sitting discomfort and pressure sore risk: a literature review.

PubMed

Savonnet, Léo; Wang, Xuguang; Duprey, Sonia

2018-03-01

Being seated for long periods, while part of many leisure or occupational activities, can lead to discomfort, pain and sometimes health issues. The impact of prolonged sitting on the body has been widely studied in the literature, with a large number of human-body finite element models developed to simulate sitting and assess seat-induced discomfort or to investigate the biomechanical factors involved. Here, we review the finite element models developed to investigate sitting discomfort or risk of pressure sores. Our study examines finite element models from twenty-seven papers, seventeen dedicated to assessing seating discomfort and ten dedicated to investigating pressure ulcers caused by prolonged sitting. The models' mesh composition and material properties are found to differ widely. These models share a lack of validation and generally make little allowance for anthropometric diversity.

Exploring Novel Tools for Assessing High School Students' Meaningful Understanding of Organic Reactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vachliotis, Theodoros; Salta, Katerina; Vasiliou, Petroula; Tzougraki, Chryssa

2011-01-01

Systemic assessment questions (SAQs) are novel assessment tools used in the context of the Systemic Approach to Teaching and Learning (SATL) model. The purpose of this model is to enhance students' meaningful understanding of scientific concepts by use of constructivist concept mapping procedures, which emphasize the development of systems…

Dermal Exposure Assessment to Pesticides in Farming Systems in Developing Countries: Comparison of Models

PubMed Central

Lesmes Fabian, Camilo; Binder, Claudia R.

2015-01-01

In the field of occupational hygiene, researchers have been working on developing appropriate methods to estimate human exposure to pesticides in order to assess the risk and therefore to take the due decisions to improve the pesticide management process and reduce the health risks. This paper evaluates dermal exposure models to find the most appropriate. Eight models (i.e., COSHH, DERM, DREAM, EASE, PHED, RISKOFDERM, STOFFENMANAGER and PFAM) were evaluated according to a multi-criteria analysis and from these results five models (i.e., DERM, DREAM, PHED, RISKOFDERM and PFAM) were selected for the assessment of dermal exposure in the case study of the potato farming system in the Andean highlands of Vereda La Hoya, Colombia. The results show that the models provide different dermal exposure estimations which are not comparable. However, because of the simplicity of the algorithm and the specificity of the determinants, the DERM, DREAM and PFAM models were found to be the most appropriate although their estimations might be more accurate if specific determinants are included for the case studies in developing countries. PMID:25938911

Measuring nursing competencies in the operating theatre: instrument development and psychometric analysis using Item Response Theory.

PubMed

Nicholson, Patricia; Griffin, Patrick; Gillis, Shelley; Wu, Margaret; Dunning, Trisha

2013-09-01

Concern about the process of identifying underlying competencies that contribute to effective nursing performance has been debated with a lack of consensus surrounding an approved measurement instrument for assessing clinical performance. Although a number of methodologies are noted in the development of competency-based assessment measures, these studies are not without criticism. The primary aim of the study was to develop and validate a Performance Based Scoring Rubric, which included both analytical and holistic scales. The aim included examining the validity and reliability of the rubric, which was designed to measure clinical competencies in the operating theatre. The fieldwork observations of 32 nurse educators and preceptors assessing the performance of 95 instrument nurses in the operating theatre were used in the calibration of the rubric. The Rasch model, a particular model among Item Response Models, was used in the calibration of each item in the rubric in an attempt at improving the measurement properties of the scale. This is done by establishing the 'fit' of the data to the conditions demanded by the Rasch model. Acceptable reliability estimates, specifically a high Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient (0.940), as well as empirical support for construct and criterion validity for the rubric were achieved. Calibration of the Performance Based Scoring Rubric using Rasch model revealed that the fit statistics for most items were acceptable. The use of the Rasch model offers a number of features in developing and refining healthcare competency-based assessments, improving confidence in measuring clinical performance. The Rasch model was shown to be useful in developing and validating a competency-based assessment for measuring the competence of the instrument nurse in the operating theatre with implications for use in other areas of nursing practice. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cogeneration computer model assessment: Advanced cogeneration research study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenberg, L.

1983-01-01

Cogeneration computer simulation models to recommend the most desirable models or their components for use by the Southern California Edison Company (SCE) in evaluating potential cogeneration projects was assessed. Existing cogeneration modeling capabilities are described, preferred models are identified, and an approach to the development of a code which will best satisfy SCE requirements is recommended. Five models (CELCAP, COGEN 2, CPA, DEUS, and OASIS) are recommended for further consideration.

A Modelling Framework to Assess the Effect of Pressures on River Abiotic Habitat Conditions and Biota

PubMed Central

Kail, Jochem; Guse, Björn; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Kleinhans, Maarten; Schuurman, Filip; Fohrer, Nicola; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian

2015-01-01

River biota are affected by global reach-scale pressures, but most approaches for predicting biota of rivers focus on river reach or segment scale processes and habitats. Moreover, these approaches do not consider long-term morphological changes that affect habitat conditions. In this study, a modelling framework was further developed and tested to assess the effect of pressures at different spatial scales on reach-scale habitat conditions and biota. Ecohydrological and 1D hydrodynamic models were used to predict discharge and water quality at the catchment scale and the resulting water level at the downstream end of a study reach. Long-term reach morphology was modelled using empirical regime equations, meander migration and 2D morphodynamic models. The respective flow and substrate conditions in the study reach were predicted using a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the suitability of these habitats was assessed with novel habitat models. In addition, dispersal models for fish and macroinvertebrates were developed to assess the re-colonization potential and to finally compare habitat suitability and the availability / ability of species to colonize these habitats. Applicability was tested and model performance was assessed by comparing observed and predicted conditions in the lowland Treene River in northern Germany. Technically, it was possible to link the different models, but future applications would benefit from the development of open source software for all modelling steps to enable fully automated model runs. Future research needs concern the physical modelling of long-term morphodynamics, feedback of biota (e.g., macrophytes) on abiotic habitat conditions, species interactions, and empirical data on the hydraulic habitat suitability and dispersal abilities of macroinvertebrates. The modelling framework is flexible and allows for including additional models and investigating different research and management questions, e.g., in climate impact research as well as river restoration and management. PMID:26114430

MOBILE EMISSIONS ASSESSMENT SYSTEM FOR URBAN AND REGIONAL EVALUATION

EPA Science Inventory

A working research model for Atlanta, GA has been developed by Georgia Tech, and is called the Mobile Emissions Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE). The EPA Office of Research and Development has developed an additional implementation of the MEASURE res...

Watershed Modeling to Assess the Sensitivity of Streamflow, Nutrient, and Sediment Loads to Potential Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA has released for independent external peer review and public comment a draft report titled, Watershed Modeling to Assess the Sensitivity of Streamflow, Nutrient, and Sediment Loads to Potential Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds. This is a draft...

Assessment of Professional Development for Teachers in the Vocational Education and Training Sector: An Examination of the Concerns Based Adoption Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saunders, Rebecca

2012-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe the use of the Concerns Based Adoption Model (Hall & Hord, 2006) as a conceptual lens and practical methodology for professional development program assessment in the vocational education and training (VET) sector. In this sequential mixed-methods study, findings from the first two phases (two of…

Developing evaluation instrument based on CIPP models on the implementation of portfolio assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurnia, Feni; Rosana, Dadan; Supahar

2017-08-01

This study aimed to develop an evaluation instrument constructed by CIPP model on the implementation of portfolio assessment in science learning. This study used research and development (R & D) method; adapting 4-D by the development of non-test instrument, and the evaluation instrument constructed by CIPP model. CIPP is the abbreviation of Context, Input, Process, and Product. The techniques of data collection were interviews, questionnaires, and observations. Data collection instruments were: 1) the interview guidelines for the analysis of the problems and the needs, 2) questionnaire to see level of accomplishment of portfolio assessment instrument, and 3) observation sheets for teacher and student to dig up responses to the portfolio assessment instrument. The data obtained was quantitative data obtained from several validators. The validators consist of two lecturers as the evaluation experts, two practitioners (science teachers), and three colleagues. This paper shows the results of content validity obtained from the validators and the analysis result of the data obtained by using Aikens' V formula. The results of this study shows that the evaluation instrument based on CIPP models is proper to evaluate the implementation of portfolio assessment instruments. Based on the experts' judgments, practitioners, and colleagues, the Aikens' V coefficient was between 0.86-1,00 which means that it is valid and can be used in the limited trial and operational field trial.

COMPARING THE IMPAIRMENT PROFILES OF OLDER DRIVERS AND NON-DRIVERS: TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FITNESS-TO-DRIVE MODEL

PubMed Central

Antin, Jonathan F.; Stanley, Laura M.; Guo, Feng

2011-01-01

The purpose of this research effort was to compare older driver and non-driver functional impairment profiles across some 60 assessment metrics in an initial effort to contribute to the development of fitness-to-drive assessment models. Of the metrics evaluated, 21 showed statistically significant differences, almost all favoring the drivers. Also, it was shown that a logistic regression model comprised of five of the assessment scores could completely and accurately separate the two groups. The results of this study imply that older drivers are far less functionally impaired than non-drivers of similar ages, and that a parsimonious model can accurately assign individuals to either group. With such models, any driver classified or diagnosed as a non-driver would be a strong candidate for further investigation and intervention. PMID:22058607

Predictive models to assess risk of type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity: machine-learning algorithms and validation using national health data from Kuwait--a cohort study.

PubMed

Farran, Bassam; Channanath, Arshad Mohamed; Behbehani, Kazem; Thanaraj, Thangavel Alphonse

2013-05-14

We build classification models and risk assessment tools for diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity using machine-learning algorithms on data from Kuwait. We model the increased proneness in diabetic patients to develop hypertension and vice versa. We ascertain the importance of ethnicity (and natives vs expatriate migrants) and of using regional data in risk assessment. Retrospective cohort study. Four machine-learning techniques were used: logistic regression, k-nearest neighbours (k-NN), multifactor dimensionality reduction and support vector machines. The study uses fivefold cross validation to obtain generalisation accuracies and errors. Kuwait Health Network (KHN) that integrates data from primary health centres and hospitals in Kuwait. 270 172 hospital visitors (of which, 89 858 are diabetic, 58 745 hypertensive and 30 522 comorbid) comprising Kuwaiti natives, Asian and Arab expatriates. Incident type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity. Classification accuracies of >85% (for diabetes) and >90% (for hypertension) are achieved using only simple non-laboratory-based parameters. Risk assessment tools based on k-NN classification models are able to assign 'high' risk to 75% of diabetic patients and to 94% of hypertensive patients. Only 5% of diabetic patients are seen assigned 'low' risk. Asian-specific models and assessments perform even better. Pathological conditions of diabetes in the general population or in hypertensive population and those of hypertension are modelled. Two-stage aggregate classification models and risk assessment tools, built combining both the component models on diabetes (or on hypertension), perform better than individual models. Data on diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity from the cosmopolitan State of Kuwait are available for the first time. This enabled us to apply four different case-control models to assess risks. These tools aid in the preliminary non-intrusive assessment of the population. Ethnicity is seen significant to the predictive models. Risk assessments need to be developed using regional data as we demonstrate the applicability of the American Diabetes Association online calculator on data from Kuwait.

Use of the Attribute Hierarchy Method for Development of Student Cognitive Models and Diagnostic Assessments in Geoscience Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corrigan, S.; Brodsky, L. M.; Loper, S.; Brown, N.; Curley, J.; Baker, J.; Goss, M.; Castek, J.; Barber, J.

2010-12-01

There is a recognized need to better understand student learning in the geosciences (Stofflet, 1994; Zalles, Quallmalz, Gobert and Pallant, 2007). Educators, cognitive psychologists and practicing scientists have also called for instructional approaches that support deep conceptual development (Manduca, Mogk and Stillings, 2004, Libarkin and Kurdziel, 2006). In both cases there is an important role for educational measures that can generate descriptions of how student understanding develops over time and inform instruction. The presenters will suggest one way of responding to these needs by describing the Attribute Hierarchy Method (AHM) of assessment (Leighton, Gierl and Hunka, 2004; Gierl, Cui, Wang and Zhou, 2008) as enacted in a large-scale earth science curriculum development project funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The AHM is one approach to criterion referenced, diagnostic assessment that ties measure design to cognitive models of student learning in order to support justified inferences about students’ understanding and the knowledge required for continued development. The Attribute Hierarchy Method bears potential for researchers and practitioners interested in learning progressions and solves many problems associated with making meaningful, justified inferences about students’ understanding based on their assessment performances. The process followed to design and develop the project’s cognitive models as well as a description of how they are used in subsequent assessment task design will be emphasized in order to demonstrate how the AHM may be applied in the context of geoscience education. Results from over twenty student cognitive interviews, and two hypothesized cognitive models -- one describing a student pathway for understanding rock formation and a second describing a student pathway for increasingly sophisticated use of maps and models in the geosciences - are also described. Sample assessment items will be provided as indications of the final assessment measures. The project’s efforts to create an on-line geoscience curriculum for use in the middle school grades that adapts to student performances by customizing whole lessons, grouping assignments or student feedback will provide a broader context for the discussion.

Interpreting JEDI Results | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

Science.gov Websites

NREL Interpreting JEDI Results Interpreting JEDI Results The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models estimate the number of jobs and economic impacts associated with power generation Economic activity in input-output models is typically assessed in three categories. NREL's JEDI models

Technosocial Modeling of IED Threat Scenarios and Attacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitney, Paul D.; Brothers, Alan J.; Coles, Garill A.

2009-03-23

This paper describes an approach for integrating sociological and technical models to develop more complete threat assessment. Current approaches to analyzing and addressing threats tend to focus on the technical factors. This paper addresses development of predictive models that encompass behavioral as well as these technical factors. Using improvised explosive device (IED) attacks as motivation, this model supports identification of intervention activities 'left of boom' as well as prioritizing attack modalities. We show how Bayes nets integrate social factors associated with IED attacks into general threat model containing technical and organizational steps from planning through obtaining the IED to initiationmore » of the attack. The social models are computationally-based representations of relevant social science literature that describes human decision making and physical factors. When combined with technical models, the resulting model provides improved knowledge integration into threat assessment for monitoring. This paper discusses the construction of IED threat scenarios, integration of diverse factors into an analytical framework for threat assessment, indicator identification for future threats, and future research directions.« less

Variable thickness transient ground-water flow model. Volume 3. Program listings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reisenauer, A.E.

1979-12-01

The Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program is developing and applying the methodology for assessing the far-field, long-term post-closure safety of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories. AEGIS is being performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (OWNI) for the Department of Energy (DOE). One task within AEGIS is the development of methodology for analysis of the consequences (water pathway) from loss of repository containment as defined by various release scenarios. Analysis of the long-term, far-field consequences of release scenarios requires the application of numerical codes which simulate the hydrologicmore » systems, model the transport of released radionuclides through the hydrologic systems to the biosphere, and, where applicable, assess the radiological dose to humans. Hydrologic and transport models are available at several levels of complexity or sophistication. Model selection and use are determined by the quantity and quality of input data. Model development under AEGIS and related programs provides three levels of hydrologic models, two levels of transport models, and one level of dose models (with several separate models). This is the third of 3 volumes of the description of the VTT (Variable Thickness Transient) Groundwater Hydrologic Model - second level (intermediate complexity) two-dimensional saturated groundwater flow.« less

Approaches to Develop Alternative Testing Strategies to Inform Human Health Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Stone, Vicki; Johnston, Helinor J; Balharry, Dominique; Gernand, Jeremy M; Gulumian, Mary

2016-08-01

The development of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for hazard assessment of new and emerging materials is high on the agenda of scientists, funders, and regulators. The relatively large number of nanomaterials on the market and under development means that an increasing emphasis will be placed on the use of reliable, predictive ATS when assessing their safety. We have provided recommendations as to how ATS development for assessment of nanomaterial hazard may be accelerated. Predefined search terms were used to identify the quantity and distribution of peer-reviewed publications for nanomaterial hazard assessment following inhalation, ingestion, or dermal absorption. A summary of knowledge gaps relating to nanomaterial hazard is provided to identify future research priorities and areas in which a rich data set might exist to allow ATS identification. Consultation with stakeholders (e.g., academia, industry, regulators) was critical to ensure that current expert opinion was reflected. The gap analysis revealed an abundance of studies that assessed the local and systemic impacts of inhaled particles, and so ATS are available for immediate use. Development of ATS for assessment of the dermal toxicity of chemicals is already relatively advanced, and these models should be applied to nanomaterials as relatively few studies have assessed the dermal toxicity of nanomaterials to date. Limited studies have investigated the local and systemic impacts of ingested nanomaterials. If the recommendations for research prioritization proposed are adopted, it is envisioned that a comprehensive battery of ATS can be developed to support the risk assessment process for nanomaterials. Some alternative models are available for immediate implementation, while others require more developmental work to become widely adopted. Case studies are included that can be used to inform the selection of alternative models and end points when assessing the pathogenicity of fibers and mode of action of nanomaterial toxicity. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Air Pollution Exposure Modeling for Health Studies

EPA Science Inventory

Dr. Michael Breen is leading the development of air pollution exposure models, integrated with novel personal sensor technologies, to improve exposure and risk assessments for individuals in health studies. He is co-investigator for multiple health studies assessing the exposure ...

Provisional Models for Endangered Species Pesticide Assessments

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The tools and models on this web page were developed for use in the Steps 1 and 2 analyses of national level assessments of the risks of chlorpyrifos, diazinon and malathion to endangered and threatened species and designated critical habitat.

Protein model quality assessment prediction by combining fragment comparisons and a consensus Cα contact potential

PubMed Central

Zhou, Hongyi; Skolnick, Jeffrey

2009-01-01

In this work, we develop a fully automated method for the quality assessment prediction of protein structural models generated by structure prediction approaches such as fold recognition servers, or ab initio methods. The approach is based on fragment comparisons and a consensus Cα contact potential derived from the set of models to be assessed and was tested on CASP7 server models. The average Pearson linear correlation coefficient between predicted quality and model GDT-score per target is 0.83 for the 98 targets which is better than those of other quality assessment methods that participated in CASP7. Our method also outperforms the other methods by about 3% as assessed by the total GDT-score of the selected top models. PMID:18004783

Measuring sustainable development using a multi-criteria model: a case study.

PubMed

Boggia, Antonio; Cortina, Carla

2010-11-01

This paper shows how Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can help in a complex process such as the assessment of the level of sustainability of a certain area. The paper presents the results of a study in which a model for measuring sustainability was implemented to better aid public policy decisions regarding sustainability. In order to assess sustainability in specific areas, a methodological approach based on multi-criteria analysis has been developed. The aim is to rank areas in order to understand the specific technical and/or financial support that they need to develop sustainable growth. The case study presented is an assessment of the level of sustainability in different areas of an Italian Region using the MCDA approach. Our results show that MCDA is a proper approach for sustainability assessment. The results are easy to understand and the evaluation path is clear and transparent. This is what decision makers need for having support to their decisions. The multi-criteria model for evaluation has been developed respecting the sustainable development economic theory, so that final results can have a clear meaning in terms of sustainability. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of the information model for consumer assessment of key quality indicators by goods labelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koshkina, S.; Ostrinskaya, L.

2018-04-01

An information model for “key” quality indicators of goods has been developed. This model is based on the assessment of f standardization existing state and the product labeling quality. According to the authors’ opinion, the proposed “key” indicators are the most significant for purchasing decision making. Customers will be able to use this model through their mobile technical devices. The developed model allows to decompose existing processes in data flows and to reveal the levels of possible architectural solutions. In-depth analysis of the presented information model decomposition levels will allow determining the stages of its improvement and to reveal additional indicators of the goods quality that are of interest to customers in the further research. Examining the architectural solutions for the customer’s information environment functioning when integrating existing databases will allow us to determine the boundaries of the model flexibility and customizability.

Industrial machinery noise impact modeling, volume 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, C. H.; Kugler, B. A.

1981-07-01

The development of a machinery noise computer model which may be used to assess the effect of occupational noise on the health and welfare of industrial workers is discussed. The purpose of the model is to provide EPA with the methodology to evaluate the personnel noise problem, to identify the equipment types responsible for the exposure and to assess the potential benefits of a given noise control action. Due to its flexibility in design and application, the model and supportive computer program can be used by other federal agencies, state governments, labor and industry as an aid in the development of noise abatement programs.

An integrated modeling approach for estimating the water quality benefits of conservation practices at the river basin scale.

PubMed

Santhi, C; Kannan, N; White, M; Di Luzio, M; Arnold, J G; Wang, X; Williams, J R

2014-01-01

The USDA initiated the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) to quantify the environmental benefits of conservation practices at regional and national scales. For this assessment, a sampling and modeling approach is used. This paper provides a technical overview of the modeling approach used in CEAP cropland assessment to estimate the off-site water quality benefits of conservation practices using the Ohio River Basin (ORB) as an example. The modeling approach uses a farm-scale model, Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX), and a watershed scale model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool [SWAT]) and databases in the Hydrologic Unit Modeling for the United States system. Databases of land use, soils, land use management, topography, weather, point sources, and atmospheric depositions were developed to derive model inputs. APEX simulates the cultivated cropland, Conserve Reserve Program land, and the practices implemented on them, whereas SWAT simulates the noncultivated land (e.g., pasture, range, urban, and forest) and point sources. Simulation results from APEX are input into SWAT. SWAT routes all sources, including APEX's, to the basin outlet through each eight-digit watershed. Each basin is calibrated for stream flow, sediment, and nutrient loads at multiple gaging sites and turned in for simulating the effects of conservation practice scenarios on water quality. Results indicate that sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads delivered to the Mississippi River from ORB could be reduced by 16, 15, and 23%, respectively, due to current conservation practices. Modeling tools are useful to provide science-based information for assessing existing conservation programs, developing future programs, and developing insights on load reductions necessary for hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

A Modular Simulation Framework for Assessing Swarm Search Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

SUBTITLE A MODULAR SIMULATION FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING SWARM SEARCH MODELS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Blake M. Wanier 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION...Numerical studies demonstrate the ability to leverage the developed simulation and analysis framework to investigate three canonical swarm search models ...as benchmarks for future exploration of more sophisticated swarm search scenarios. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Swarm Search, Search Theory, Modeling Framework

Development and testing of an assessment to measure spatial thinking about enhanced greenhouse effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaza, Heather Jean

Americans, in general, do not behave in environmentally sustainable ways. We drive cars and fly in planes that emit planet-warming carbon. We purchase food in nearly indestructible packaging that is not recycled or repurposed. We do not consider the environmental impact of the "stuff" stuffed into our grocery and department stores, most of which is made of materials that had to be dug out of the ground, leaving rivers and skies full of pollution in its place. Citizens have a responsibility to understand complex global and local environmental problems. A person's ability to think about the way that an environmental problem they are tasked with understanding changes over time and space can better prepare them to make sustainable decisions in the face of this complexity. Spatial thinking serves the learner's ability to understand the impact of environmental actions and should be given a consistent place in environmental education. Teaching practices and pedagogies that focus on spatial thinking are necessary to learners' success. In order to know if these strategies are successful, educators need an assessment tool that targets the spatial thinking skills necessary to understanding environmental problems. This dissertation project used a models and modeling theoretical framework to develop and test an assessment of students' spatial thinking abilities related to the environmental problem of enhanced greenhouse effect. This assessment was developed from a review of existing spatial thinking literature, research on existing assessments of spatial thinking abilities, and existing assessment of enhanced greenhouse effect. In addition, I interviewed and surveyed experts in science, math, and environmental education to elicit their perspectives on the spatial thinking skills necessary for learners to understand enhanced greenhouse effect. All of this information was synthesized into 14 Central Concepts of spatial thinking for enhanced greenhouse effect. The assessment was developed for students to express their mental models related to these 14 Central Concepts. The assessment was reviewed and tested by experts related to the project's content, as well as students from the target population for assessment delivery. It was revised based on feedback and data collect from these groups. Here I describe my findings, that students are more proficient at modeling simple spatial relationships, one at a time, than modeling more complex relationships; that students understand human-scale spatial relationships related to enhanced greenhouse effect better than very small or very large ones; and that students can associate and correlate spatially distributed features and phenomena to describe enhanced greenhouse effect. Finally, I describe the ways in which student and expert feedback has informed not only revisions of this assessment specifically, but also to the assessment development process, for better assessment design, when spatial thinking assessments related to other environmental problems are developed in the future.

Development of a Remote Accessibility Assessment System through three-dimensional reconstruction technology.

PubMed

Kim, Jong Bae; Brienza, David M

2006-01-01

A Remote Accessibility Assessment System (RAAS) that uses three-dimensional (3-D) reconstruction technology is being developed; it enables clinicians to assess the wheelchair accessibility of users' built environments from a remote location. The RAAS uses commercial software to construct 3-D virtualized environments from photographs. We developed custom screening algorithms and instruments for analyzing accessibility. Characteristics of the camera and 3-D reconstruction software chosen for the system significantly affect its overall reliability. In this study, we performed an accuracy assessment to verify that commercial hardware and software can construct accurate 3-D models by analyzing the accuracy of dimensional measurements in a virtual environment and a comparison of dimensional measurements from 3-D models created with four cameras/settings. Based on these two analyses, we were able to specify a consumer-grade digital camera and PhotoModeler (EOS Systems, Inc, Vancouver, Canada) software for this system. Finally, we performed a feasibility analysis of the system in an actual environment to evaluate its ability to assess the accessibility of a wheelchair user's typical built environment. The field test resulted in an accurate accessibility assessment and thus validated our system.

Development of the Leadership Influence Self-Assessment (LISA©) instrument.

PubMed

Shillam, Casey R; Adams, Jeffrey M; Bryant, Debbie Chatman; Deupree, Joy P; Miyamoto, Suzanne; Gregas, Matt

This study aims to describe the development and psychometric evaluation of the Leadership Influence Self-Assessment (LISA©) tool. LISA© was designed to help nurse leaders assess and enhance their influence capacity by measuring influence traits and practices and identifying areas of strength and weakness. Concepts identified in the Adams Influence Model and input from content experts guided the development of 145 items for testing. Administered to 165 nurse leaders, the assessment was subjected to exploratory factor analysis (EFA). EFA yielded a four-factor solution that comprised 80 items. Cronbach's alpha for factors ranged between 0.912 and 0.938. All factor loadings were >0.4; the smallest factor contained 14 items. Items grouped together in the theoretical model also clustered together in the EFA. Preliminary psychometric testing supports validity and reliability of the LISA© and its potential use as a tool to assess influence capacity for purposes of leadership development and research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Portfolios: An Alternative Method of Student and Program Assessment

PubMed Central

Hannam, Susan E.

1995-01-01

The use of performance-based evaluation and alternative assessment techniques has become essential for curriculum programs seeking Commission of Accreditation of Allied Health Education Programs (CAAHEP) accreditation. In athletic training education, few assessment models exist to assess student performance over the entire course of their educational program. This article describes a model of assessment-a student athletic training portfolio of “best works.” The portfolio can serve as a method to assess student development and to assess program effectiveness. The goals of the program include purposes specific to the five NATA performance domains. In addition, four types of portfolio evidence are described: artifacts, attestations, productions, and reproductions. Quality assignments and projects completed by students as they progress through a six-semester program are identified relative to the type of evidence and the domain(s) they represent. The portfolio assists with student development, provides feedback for curriculum planning, allows for student/faculty collaboration and “coaching” of the student, and assists with job searching. This information will serve as a useful model for those athletic training programs looking for an alternative method of assessing student and program outcomes. PMID:16558359

A Science Plan for a Comprehensive Regional Assessment of the Atlantic Coastal Plain Aquifer System in Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shedlock, Robert J.; Bolton, David W.; Cleaves, Emery T.; Gerhart, James M.; Nardi, Mark R.

2007-01-01

The Maryland Coastal Plain region is, at present, largely dependent upon ground water for its water supply. Decades of increasing pumpage have caused ground-water levels in parts of the Maryland Coastal Plain to decline by as much as 2 feet per year in some areas of southern Maryland. Continued declines at this rate could affect the long-term sustainability of ground-water resources in Maryland's heavily populated Coastal Plain communities and the agricultural industry of the Eastern Shore. In response to a recommendation in 2004 by the Advisory Committee on the Management and Protection of the State's Water Resources, the Maryland Geological Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed a science plan for a comprehensive assessment that will provide new scientific information and new data management and analysis tools for the State to use in allocating ground water in the Coastal Plain. The comprehensive assessment has five goals aimed at improving the current information and tools used to understand the resource potential of the aquifer system: (1) document the geologic and hydrologic characteristics of the aquifer system in the Maryland Coastal Plain and appropriate areas of adjacent states; (2) conduct detailed studies of the regional ground-water-flow system and water budget for the aquifer system; (3) improve documentation of patterns of water quality in all Coastal Plain aquifers, including the distribution of saltwater; (4) enhance ground-water-level, streamflow, and water-quality-monitoring networks in the Maryland Coastal Plain; and (5) develop science-based tools to facilitate sound management of the ground-water resources in the Maryland Coastal Plain. The assessment, as designed, will be conducted in three phases and if fully implemented, is expected to take 7 to 8 years to complete. Phase I, which was initiated in January 2006, is an effort to assemble all the information and investigation tools needed to do a more comprehensive assessment of the aquifer system. The work will include updating the hydrogeologic framework, developing a Geographic Information System-based aquifer information system, refinement of water-use information, assessment of existing water-quality data, and development of detailed plans for ground-water-flow and management models. Phase II is an intensive study phase during which a regional ground-water-flow model will be developed and calibrated for the entire region of Maryland in the Atlantic Coastal Plain as well as appropriate areas of Delaware and Virginia. The model will be used to simulate flow and water levels in the aquifer system and to study the water budget of the system. The model analysis will be based on published information but will be supplemented with field investigations of recharge and leakage in the aquifer system. Localized and finely discretized ground-water-flow models that are embedded in the regional model will be developed for selected areas of heavy withdrawals. Other modeling studies will be conducted to better understand flow in the unconfined parts of the aquifer system and to support the recharge studies. Phase II will also include selected water-quality studies and a study to determine how hydrologic and water-quality-monitoring networks need to be enhanced to appropriately assess the sustainability of the Coastal Plain aquifer system. Phase III will be largely devoted to the development and application of a ground-water optimization model. This model will be linked to the ground-water-flow model to create a model package that can be used to test different water-management scenarios. The management criteria that will be used to develop these scenarios will be determined in consultation with a variety of state and local stakeholders and policy makers in Phases I and II of the assessment. The development of the aquifer information system is a key component of the assessment. The system will store all relevant aquifer data

Grizzly Staus Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer, Benjamin; Zhang, Yongfeng; Chakraborty, Pritam

2014-09-01

This report summarizes work during FY 2014 to develop capabilities to predict embrittlement of reactor pressure vessel steel, and to assess the response of embrittled reactor pressure vessels to postulated accident conditions. This work has been conducted a three length scales. At the engineering scale, 3D fracture mechanics capabilities have been developed to calculate stress intensities and fracture toughnesses, to perform a deterministic assessment of whether a crack would propagate at the location of an existing flaw. This capability has been demonstrated on several types of flaws in a generic reactor pressure vessel model. Models have been developed at themore » scale of fracture specimens to develop a capability to determine how irradiation affects the fracture toughness of material. Verification work has been performed on a previously-developed model to determine the sensitivity of the model to specimen geometry and size effects. The effects of irradiation on the parameters of this model has been investigated. At lower length scales, work has continued in an ongoing to understand how irradiation and thermal aging affect the microstructure and mechanical properties of reactor pressure vessel steel. Previously-developed atomistic kinetic monte carlo models have been further developed and benchmarked against experimental data. Initial work has been performed to develop models of nucleation in a phase field model. Additional modeling work has also been performed to improve the fundamental understanding of the formation mechanisms and stability of matrix defects caused.« less

Evaluation of the Agro-EcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W)model for estimating nutrient dynamics on a midwest agricultural watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In order to satisfy the requirements of Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) Watershed Assessment Study (WAS) Objective 5 (“develop and verify regional watershed models that quantify environmental outcomes of conservation practices in major agricultural regions”), a new watershed model dev...

USE OF BIOLOGICALLY BASED COMPUTATIONAL MODELING IN MODE OF ACTION-BASED RISK ASSESSMENT – AN EXAMPLE OF CHLOROFORM

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of current work is to develop a new cancer dose-response assessment for chloroform using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model. The PBPK/PD model is based on a mode of action in which the cytolethality of chloroform occurs when the ...

INFLUENCE OF MATRIX FORMULATION ON DERMAL PERCUTANEOUS ABSORPTION OF TRIAZOLE FUNGICIDES USING QSAR AND PBPK / PD MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this work is to use the Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) and quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to develop an assessment tool for human exposure assessment to triazole fungicides. A dermal exposure route is used for the physi...

Assessing Argumentative Representation with Bayesian Network Models in Debatable Social Issues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhidong; Lu, Jingyan

2014-01-01

This study seeks to obtain argumentation models, which represent argumentative processes and an assessment structure in secondary school debatable issues in the social sciences. The argumentation model was developed based on mixed methods, a combination of both theory-driven and data-driven methods. The coding system provided a combing point by…

Multiple Subtypes among Vocationally Undecided College Students: A Model and Assessment Instrument.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Lawrence K.; Chenery, Mary Faeth

1980-01-01

A model of vocational decision status was developed, and an instrument was constructed and used to assess its three dimensions. Results demonstrated the utility of the model, supported the reliability and validity of the instrument, and illustrated the value of viewing vocationally undecided students as multiple subtypes. (Author)

Assessment of the scale effect on statistical downscaling quality at a station scale using a weather generator-based model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The resolution of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is too coarse to assess the fine scale or site-specific impacts of climate change. Downscaling approaches including dynamical and statistical downscaling have been developed to meet this requirement. As the resolution of climate model increases, it...

Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, L.; Titov, V. V.; Chamberlin, C. D.

2009-12-01

The study describes the development, testing and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models (forecast models) for use in NOAA's tsunami forecast and warning system. The model development process includes sensitivity studies of tsunami wave characteristics in the nearshore and inundation, for a range of model grid setups, resolutions and parameters. To demonstrate the process, four forecast models in Hawaii, at Hilo, Kahului, Honolulu, and Nawiliwili are described. The models were validated with fourteen historical tsunamis and compared with numerical results from reference inundation models of higher resolution. The accuracy of the modeled maximum wave height is greater than 80% when the observation is greater than 0.5 m; when the observation is below 0.5 m the error is less than 0.3 m. The error of the modeled arrival time of the first peak is within 3% of the travel time. The developed forecast models were further applied to hazard assessment from simulated magnitude 7.5, 8.2, 8.7 and 9.3 tsunamis based on subduction zone earthquakes in the Pacific. The tsunami hazard assessment study indicates that use of a seismic magnitude alone for a tsunami source assessment is inadequate to achieve such accuracy for tsunami amplitude forecasts. The forecast models apply local bathymetric and topographic information, and utilize dynamic boundary conditions from the tsunami source function database, to provide site- and event-specific coastal predictions. Only by combining a Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami-constrained tsunami magnitude with site-specific high-resolution models can the forecasts completely cover the evolution of earthquake-generated tsunami waves: generation, deep ocean propagation, and coastal inundation. Wavelet analysis of the tsunami waves suggests the coastal tsunami frequency responses at different sites are dominated by the local bathymetry, yet they can be partially related to the locations of the tsunami sources. The study also demonstrates the nonlinearity between offshore and nearshore maximum wave amplitudes.

New drug adoption models: a review and assessment of future needs.

PubMed

Agrawal, M; Calantone, R J

1995-01-01

New drug products today are the key to survival in the pharmaceutical industry. However, the new product development process in the pharmaceutical industry also happens to be one of the riskiest and most expensive undertakings because of the huge research and development costs involved. Consequently market forecasting of new pharmaceutical products takes on added importance if the formidable investments are to be recovered. New drug adoption models provide the marketer with a means to assess new product potential. Although several adoption models are available in the marketing literature for assessing potential of common consumer goods, the unique characteristics of the prescription drug market makes it necessary to examine the current state of pharmaceutical innovations. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to: (1) review new drug adoption models in the pharmaceutical literature, (2) evaluate the existing models of new drug adoption using the ten criteria for a good model as prescribed by Zaltman and Wallendorf (1983), and (3) provide an overall assessment and a ¿prescription¿ for better forecasting of new drug products.

Model Assessment of the Impact on Ozone of Subsonic and Supersonic Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, Malcolm; Weisenstein, Debra; Danilin, Michael; Scott, Courtney; Shia, Run-Lie

2000-01-01

This is the final report for work performed between June 1999 through May 2000. The work represents continuation of the previous contract which encompasses five areas: (1) continued refinements and applications of the 2-D chemistry-transport model (CTM) to assess the ozone effects from aircraft operation in the stratosphere; (2) studying the mechanisms that determine the evolution of the sulfur species in the aircraft plume and how such mechanisms affect the way aircraft sulfur emissions should be introduced into global models; (3) the development of diagnostics in the AER 3-wave interactive model to assess the importance of the dynamics feedback and zonal asymmetry in model prediction of ozone response to aircraft operation; (4) the development of a chemistry parameterization scheme in support of the global modeling initiative (GMI); and (5) providing assessment results for preparation of national and international reports which include the "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere" prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Assessment of the effects of high-speed aircraft in the stratosphere: 1998" by NASA, and the "Model and Measurements Intercomparison II" by NASA. Part of the work was reported in the final report. We participated in the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) campaign and we continue with our analyses of the data.

A power information user (PIU) model to promote information integration in Tennessee's public health community.

PubMed

Sathe, Nila A; Lee, Patricia; Giuse, Nunzia Bettinsoli

2004-10-01

Observation and immersion in the user community are critical factors in designing and implementing informatics solutions; such practices ensure relevant interventions and promote user acceptance. Libraries can adapt these strategies to developing instruction and outreach. While needs assessment is typically a core facet of library instruction, sustained, iterative assessment underlying the development of user-centered instruction is key to integrating resource use into the workflow. This paper describes the Eskind Biomedical Library's (EBL's) recent work with the Tennessee public health community to articulate a training model centered around developing power information users (PIUs). PIUs are community-based individuals with an advanced understanding of information seeking and resource use and are committed to championing information integration. As model development was informed by observation of PIU workflow and information needs, it also allowed for informal testing of the applicability of assessment via domain immersion in library outreach. Though the number of PIUs involved in the project was small, evaluation indicated that the model was useful for promoting information use in PIU workgroups and that the concept of domain immersion was relevant to library-related projects. Moreover, EBL continues to employ principles of domain understanding inherent in the PIU model to develop further interventions for the public health community and library users.

Quantification of key long-term risks at CO₂ sequestration sites: Latest results from US DOE's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project

DOE PAGES

Pawar, Rajesh; Bromhal, Grant; Carroll, Susan; ...

2014-12-31

Risk assessment for geologic CO₂ storage including quantification of risks is an area of active investigation. The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is a US-Department of Energy (US-DOE) effort focused on developing a defensible, science-based methodology and platform for quantifying risk profiles at geologic CO₂ sequestration sites. NRAP has been developing a methodology that centers round development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) using system modeling approach to quantify risks and risk profiles. The IAM has been used to calculate risk profiles with a few key potential impacts due to potential CO₂ and brine leakage. The simulation results are alsomore » used to determine long-term storage security relationships and compare the long-term storage effectiveness to IPCC storage permanence goal. Additionally, we also demonstrate application of IAM for uncertainty quantification in order to determine parameters to which the uncertainty in model results is most sensitive.« less

Engineering epithelial-stromal interactions in vitro for toxicology assessment.

PubMed

Belair, David G; Abbott, Barbara D

2017-05-01

Crosstalk between epithelial and stromal cells drives the morphogenesis of ectodermal organs during development and promotes normal mature adult epithelial tissue homeostasis. Epithelial-stromal interactions (ESIs) have historically been examined using mammalian models and ex vivo tissue recombination. Although these approaches have elucidated signaling mechanisms underlying embryonic morphogenesis processes and adult mammalian epithelial tissue function, they are limited by the availability of tissue, low throughput, and human developmental or physiological relevance. In this review, we describe how bioengineered ESIs, using either human stem cells or co-cultures of human primary epithelial and stromal cells, have enabled the development of human in vitro epithelial tissue models that recapitulate the architecture, phenotype, and function of adult human epithelial tissues. We discuss how the strategies used to engineer mature epithelial tissue models in vitro could be extrapolated to instruct the design of organotypic culture models that can recapitulate the structure of embryonic ectodermal tissues and enable the in vitro assessment of events critical to organ/tissue morphogenesis. Given the importance of ESIs towards normal epithelial tissue development and function, such models present a unique opportunity for toxicological screening assays to incorporate ESIs to assess the impact of chemicals on mature and developing epidermal tissues. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Engineering epithelial-stromal interactions in vitro for toxicology assessment

PubMed Central

Belair, David G.; Abbott, Barbara D.

2018-01-01

Crosstalk between epithelial and stromal cells drives the morphogenesis of ectodermal organs during development and promotes normal mature adult epithelial tissue homeostasis. Epithelial-stromal interactions (ESIs) have historically been examined using mammalian models and ex vivo tissue recombination. Although these approaches have elucidated signaling mechanisms underlying embryonic morphogenesis processes and adult mammalian epithelial tissue function, they are limited by the availability of tissue, low throughput, and human developmental or physiological relevance. In this review, we describe how bioengineered ESIs, using either human stem cells or co-cultures of human primary epithelial and stromal cells, have enabled the development of human in vitro epithelial tissue models that recapitulate the architecture, phenotype, and function of adult human epithelial tissues. We discuss how the strategies used to engineer mature epithelial tissue models in vitro could be extrapolated to instruct the design of organotypic culture models that can recapitulate the structure of embryonic ectodermal tissues and enable the in vitro assessment of events critical to organ/tissue morphogenesis. Given the importance of ESIs towards normal epithelial tissue development and function, such models present a unique opportunity for toxicological screening assays to incorporate ESIs to assess the impact of chemicals on mature and developing epidermal tissues. PMID:28285100

Wearable-Sensor-Based Classification Models of Faller Status in Older Adults.

PubMed

Howcroft, Jennifer; Lemaire, Edward D; Kofman, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Wearable sensors have potential for quantitative, gait-based, point-of-care fall risk assessment that can be easily and quickly implemented in clinical-care and older-adult living environments. This investigation generated models for wearable-sensor based fall-risk classification in older adults and identified the optimal sensor type, location, combination, and modelling method; for walking with and without a cognitive load task. A convenience sample of 100 older individuals (75.5 ± 6.7 years; 76 non-fallers, 24 fallers based on 6 month retrospective fall occurrence) walked 7.62 m under single-task and dual-task conditions while wearing pressure-sensing insoles and tri-axial accelerometers at the head, pelvis, and left and right shanks. Participants also completed the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale, Community Health Activities Model Program for Seniors questionnaire, six minute walk test, and ranked their fear of falling. Fall risk classification models were assessed for all sensor combinations and three model types: multi-layer perceptron neural network, naïve Bayesian, and support vector machine. The best performing model was a multi-layer perceptron neural network with input parameters from pressure-sensing insoles and head, pelvis, and left shank accelerometers (accuracy = 84%, F1 score = 0.600, MCC score = 0.521). Head sensor-based models had the best performance of the single-sensor models for single-task gait assessment. Single-task gait assessment models outperformed models based on dual-task walking or clinical assessment data. Support vector machines and neural networks were the best modelling technique for fall risk classification. Fall risk classification models developed for point-of-care environments should be developed using support vector machines and neural networks, with a multi-sensor single-task gait assessment.

Development of Sustainability Assessment Tool for Malaysian hydropower industry: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turan, Faiz Mohd; Johan, Kartina; Abu Sofian, Muhammad Irfan

2018-04-01

This research deals with the development of sustainability assessment tools as a medium to assess the performance of a hydropower project compliances towards sustainability practice. Since the increasing needs of implementing sustainability practice, developed countries are utilizing sustainability tools to achieve sustainable development goals. Its inception within ASEAN countries including Malaysia is still low. The problem with most tools developed from other countries is that it is not very comprehensive as well as its implementation factors are not suitable for the local environment that is not quantified. Hence, there is a need to develop a suitable sustainable assessment tool for the Malaysian hydropower industry to comply with the sustainable development goals as a bridging gap between the governor and the practitioner. The steps of achieving this goal is separated into several parts. The first part is to identify sustainable parameters from established tools as a model for comparison to enhance new parameters. The second stage is to convert equivalent quantification value from the model to the new developed tools. The last stage is to develop software program as a mean of gaining energy company feedback with systematic sustainable reporting from the surveyor so as to be able to integrate sustainability assessment, monitoring and reporting for self-improved reporting.

Non-linear assessment and deficiency of linear relationship for healthcare industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nordin, N.; Abdullah, M. M. A. B.; Razak, R. C.

2017-09-01

This paper presents the development of the non-linear service satisfaction model that assumes patients are not necessarily satisfied or dissatisfied with good or poor service delivery. With that, compliment and compliant assessment is considered, simultaneously. Non-linear service satisfaction instrument called Kano-Q and Kano-SS is developed based on Kano model and Theory of Quality Attributes (TQA) to define the unexpected, hidden and unspoken patient satisfaction and dissatisfaction into service quality attribute. A new Kano-Q and Kano-SS algorithm for quality attribute assessment is developed based satisfaction impact theories and found instrumentally fit the reliability and validity test. The results were also validated based on standard Kano model procedure before Kano model and Quality Function Deployment (QFD) is integrated for patient attribute and service attribute prioritization. An algorithm of Kano-QFD matrix operation is developed to compose the prioritized complaint and compliment indexes. Finally, the results of prioritized service attributes are mapped to service delivery category to determine the most prioritized service delivery that need to be improved at the first place by healthcare service provider.

CULTURAL ADAPTATIONS OF EVIDENCE-BASED HOME-VISITATION MODELS IN TRIBAL COMMUNITIES.

PubMed

Hiratsuka, Vanessa Y; Parker, Myra E; Sanchez, Jenae; Riley, Rebecca; Heath, Debra; Chomo, Julianna C; Beltangady, Moushumi; Sarche, Michelle

2018-05-01

The Tribal Maternal, Infant, and Early Childhood Home Visiting (Tribal MIECHV) Program provides federal grants to tribes, tribal consortia, tribal organizations, and urban Indian organizations to implement evidence-based home-visiting services for American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) families. To date, only one evidence-based home-visiting program has been developed for use in AI/AN communities. The purpose of this article is to describe the steps that four Tribal MIECHV Programs took to assess community needs, select a home-visiting model, and culturally adapt the model for use in AI/AN communities. In these four unique Tribal MIECHV Program settings, each program employed a rigorous needs-assessment process and developed cultural modifications in accordance with community strengths and needs. Adaptations occurred in consultation with model developers, with consideration of the conceptual rationale for the program, while grounding new content in indigenous cultures. Research is needed to improve measurement of home-visiting outcomes in tribal and urban AI/AN settings, develop culturally grounded home-visiting interventions, and assess the effectiveness of home visiting in AI/AN communities. © 2018 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

PHOTOTOXIC POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS IN SEDIMENTS: A MODEL-BASED APPROACH FOR ASSESSING RISK

EPA Science Inventory

Over the past five years we have developed a number of models which will be combined in an integrated framework with chemical-monitoring information to assess the potential for widespread risk of phototoxic PAHs in sediments.

LEACHING MODELS FOR SUBSURFACE POLLUTION ASSESSMENT IN AGROECOSYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Unrestricted use of pesticides in agriculture threatens ground-water resources and can have adverse ecological impact on the nation's receiving surface waters. In this paper, we develop mass fraction models for exposure assessment and the regulation of agricultural organic chemic...

WATERSHED AND INSTREAM MODELING OF SEDIMENT FATE AND TRANSPORT

EPA Science Inventory

To effectively manage watersheds, the assessment of watershed ecological response to physicochemical stressors such as sediments over broad spatial and temporal scales is needed. Assessments at this level of complexity requires the development of sediment transport and fate model...

Parameters for Pyrethroid Insecticide QSAR and PBPK/PD Models for Human Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

This pyrethroid insecticide parameter review is an extension of our interest in developing quantitative structure–activity relationship–physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (QSAR-PBPK/PD) models for assessing health risks, which interest started with the organoph...

Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history-factors

Treesearch

Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Paul G. Rodewald

2011-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate trees' potential responses to climate change are essential for developing appropriate forest management strategies. However, there is a great need to better understand these models' limitations and evaluate their uncertainties. We have previously developed statistical models of suitable habitat, based on both...

Influence of Assessment for Learning Professional Development in Rural Georgia Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cole, Marianne

2010-01-01

This study investigated the effect of two models of professional development concerning Assessment for Learning on teacher perception of the effectiveness of Assessment for Learning strategies and student achievement as measured by standardized Georgia End of Course Tests. The study hypothesized that a positive relationship exists between teacher…

Relations among Brief Measures of Mathematics, Reading, and Processing Speed: A Construct Validity Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maynard, Jennifer Leigh

2012-01-01

Emphasis on regular mathematics skill assessment, intervention, and progress monitoring under the RTI model has created a need for the development of assessment instruments that are psychometrically sound, reliable, universal, and brief. Important factors to consider when developing or selecting assessments for the school environment include what…

Development of a Measurement Instrument to Assess Students' Electrolyte Conceptual Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lu, Shanshan; Bi, Hualin

2016-01-01

To assess students' conceptual understanding levels and diagnose alternative frameworks of the electrolyte concept, a measurement instrument was developed using the Rasch model. This paper reports the use of the measurement instrument to assess 559 students from grade 10 to grade 12 in two cities. The results provided both diagnostic and summative…

Designing an Automated Assessment of Public Speaking Skills Using Multimodal Cues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Lei; Feng, Gary; Leong, Chee Wee; Joe, Jilliam; Kitchen, Christopher; Lee, Chong Min

2016-01-01

Traditional assessments of public speaking skills rely on human scoring. We report an initial study on the development of an automated scoring model for public speaking performances using multimodal technologies. Task design, rubric development, and human rating were conducted according to standards in educational assessment. An initial corpus of…

Modeling the Relationship between Perceptions of Assessment Tasks and Classroom Assessment Environment as a Function of Gender

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alkharusi, Hussain; Aldhafri, Said; Alnabhani, Hilal; Alkalbani, Muna

2014-01-01

A substantial proportion of the classroom time involves exposing students to a variety of assessment tasks. As students process these tasks, they develop beliefs about the importance, utility, value, and difficulty of the tasks. This study aimed at deriving a model describing the multivariate relationship between students' perceptions of the…

A Model for Predicting Student Performance on High-Stakes Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dammann, Matthew Walter

2010-01-01

This research study examined the use of student achievement on reading and math state assessments to predict success on the science state assessment. Multiple regression analysis was utilized to test the prediction for all students in grades 5 and 8 in a mid-Atlantic state. The prediction model developed from the analysis explored the combined…

The aggregate timberland assessment system—ATLAS: a comprehensive timber projection model.

Treesearch

J.R. Mills; J.C. Kincaid

1992-01-01

The aggregate timberland assessment system is a time-based deterministic timber projection model. It was developed by the USDA Forest Service to address broad policy questions related to future timber supplies for the 1989 Renewable Resources Planning Act timber assessment. An open framework design allows for customizing inputs to account for regional and subregional...

Comparative Validity of the Shedler and Westen Assessment Procedure-200

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mullins-Sweatt, Stephanie N.; Widiger, Thomas A.

2008-01-01

A predominant dimensional model of general personality structure is the five-factor model (FFM). Quite a number of alternative instruments have been developed to assess the domains of the FFM. The current study compares the validity of 2 alternative versions of the Shedler and Westen Assessment Procedure (SWAP-200) FFM scales, 1 that was developed…

Modeling the effects of forest management on in situ and ex situ longleaf pine forest carbon stocks

Treesearch

C.A. Gonzalez-Benecke; L.J. Samuelson; T.A. Martin; W.P. Cropper Jr; Kurt Johnsen; T.A. Stokes; John Butnor; P.H. Anderson

2015-01-01

Assessment of forest carbon storage dynamics requires a variety of techniques including simulation models. We developed a hybrid model to assess the effects of silvicultural management systems on carbon (C) budgets in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) plantations in the southeastern U.S. To simulate in situ C pools, the model integrates a growth and yield model...

Pre-existing periodontitis exacerbates experimental arthritis in a mouse model.

PubMed

Cantley, Melissa D; Haynes, David R; Marino, Victor; Bartold, P Mark

2011-06-01

Previous studies have shown a higher incidence of alveolar bone loss in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and that patients with periodontitis are at a greater risk of developing RA. The aim of this study was to develop an animal model to assess the relationship between pre-existing periodontitis and experimental arthritis (EA). Periodontitis was first induced in mice by oral gavage with Porphyromonas gingivalis followed by EA using the collagen antibody-induced arthritis model. These animals were compared with animals with periodontitis alone, EA alone and no disease (controls). Visual changes in paw swelling were assessed to determine clinical development of EA. Alveolar bone and joint changes were assessed using micro-CT, histological analyses and immunohistochemistry. Serum levels of C-reactive protein were used to monitor systemic inflammation. Mice with pre-existing periodontitis developed more severe arthritis, which developed at a faster rate. Mice with periodontitis only also showed evidence of loss of bone within the radiocarpal joint. There was also evidence of alveolar bone loss in mice with EA alone. The results of this study indicate that pre-existing periodontitis exacerbated experimental arthritis in a mouse model. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

[Training of health personnel in the framework of humanitarian action. Choosing an assessment model].

PubMed

Marchand, C; Gagnayre, R; d'Ivernois, J F

1996-01-01

There are very few examples of health training assessment in developing countries. Such an undertaking faces a number of difficulties concerning the problems inherent to assessment, the particular and unstable nature of the environment, and the problems associated with humanitarian action and development aid. It is difficult to choose between a formal and a natural approach. Indeed, a dual approach, combining quantitative and qualitative data seems best suited to a variety of cultural contexts of variable stability. Faced with these difficulties, a criteria-based, formative, quality-oriented assessment aimed at improving teaching and learning methods should be able to satisfy the needs of training professionals. We propose a training assessment guide based on an assessment model which aims to improve training techniques using comprehensive, descriptive and prescriptive approaches.

The Measure of Adolescent Heterosocial Competence: Development and Initial Validation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grover, Rachel L.; Nangle, Douglas W.; Zeff, Karen R.

2005-01-01

We developed and began construct validation of the Measure of Adolescent Heterosocial Competence (MAHC), a self-report instrument assessing the ability to negotiate effectively a range of challenging other-sex social interactions. Development followed the Goldfried and D'Zurilla (1969) behavioral-analytic model for assessing competence.…

The Evolution of Cartography Graduate Programs and the Development of New Graduate Programs in Cartography: An Assessment of Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinke, Theodore R.

This paper traces the historical development of cartography graduate programs, establishes an evolutionary model, and evaluates the model to determine if it has some utility today for the development of programs capable of producing highly skilled cartographers. Cartography is defined to include traditional cartography, computer cartography,…

Development of an Electronic Portfolio System Success Model: An Information Systems Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balaban, Igor; Mu, Enrique; Divjak, Blazenka

2013-01-01

This research has two main goals: to develop an instrument for assessing Electronic Portfolio (ePortfolio) success and to build a corresponding ePortfolio success model using DeLone and McLean's information systems success model as the theoretical framework. For this purpose, we developed an ePortfolio success measurement instrument and structural…

Evaluation of HFIR LEU Fuel Using the COMSOL Multiphysics Platform

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Primm, Trent; Ruggles, Arthur; Freels, James D

2009-03-01

A finite element computational approach to simulation of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) Core Thermal-Fluid behavior is developed. These models were developed to facilitate design of a low enriched core for the HFIR, which will have different axial and radial flux profiles from the current HEU core and thus will require fuel and poison load optimization. This report outlines a stepwise implementation of this modeling approach using the commercial finite element code, COMSOL, with initial assessment of fuel, poison and clad conduction modeling capability, followed by assessment of mating of the fuel conduction models to a one dimensional fluidmore » model typical of legacy simulation techniques for the HFIR core. The model is then extended to fully couple 2-dimensional conduction in the fuel to a 2-dimensional thermo-fluid model of the coolant for a HFIR core cooling sub-channel with additional assessment of simulation outcomes. Finally, 3-dimensional simulations of a fuel plate and cooling channel are presented.« less

The Western Energy Corridor Initiative: Unconventional Fuel Development Issues, Impacts, and Management Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfsberg, A.; Hagood, M.; Pasqualini, D.; Wood, T.; Wilson, C.; Witkowski, M.; Levitt, D.; Pawar, R.; Keating, G.; Ziock, H.

2008-12-01

The United States is increasingly dependent on imported oil and gas; commodities for which other nations are competing and for which future supply may be inadequate to support our transportation fuel needs. Therefore, a renewed interest in 'harder-to-get' unconventional fuels has emerged in both industry and government with directed focus on world class hydrocarbon resources within a corridor extending from Canada southward through the Rocky Mountain States. Within this Western Energy Corridor, co-located with significant conventional hydrocarbon and renewable energy resources, lie some of the world's richest unconventional hydrocarbon resources in oil shales, oil sands and coal for coal-to-liquid conversion. However, development of these resources poses substantial environmental concerns as well as increasing competition for limited resources of water and habitat. With large-scale energy development in the predominantly rural region, local communities, infrastructures, and economies will face increasing demands for roads, electricity, law enforcement, labor, and other support services. The Western Energy Corridor Initiative (WECI) seeks to develop an integrated assessment of the impacts of unconventional fuel development, the interrelationships of planned energy developments in different basins, and the resultant demands placed on the region. This initial WECI study focuses on two of the most important current issues for industry, regulators, and stakeholders -- the assessment of carbon and water resources issues, impacts, and management strategies. Through scenario analyses using coupled systems and process level models, this study investigates the viability of integrated development of multiple energy resources in a carbon neutral and environmentally acceptable manner, and the interrelationships of various energy resource development plans. The modeling framework is designed to extend to include infrastructure, employment, training, fiscal and economic demands placed on the region as a result of various development and climate change scenarios. The multi-scale modeling approach involves a systems dynamics (SD) modeling framework linked with more detailed models such as one for basin-scale hydrology investigating the spatial relationships of water rights and requirements, reservoir locations, and climate change impacts (the details of the SD model and the hydrologic model are presented in other contributions by Pasqualini et al. and Wilson et al.). A link to a CO2 sequestration performance assessment model is also being built to enable analysis of alternative carbon management options. With these evolving capabilities, our analyses consider interdependent demands and impacts placed on the region for various development scenarios.

Development and validation of deterioration models for concrete bridge decks - phase 1 : artificial intelligence models and bridge management system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

This research documents the development and evaluation of artificial neural network (ANN) models to predict the condition ratings of concrete highway bridge decks in Michigan. Historical condition assessments chronicled in the national bridge invento...

Methodology, status and plans for development and assessment of Cathare code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bestion, D.; Barre, F.; Faydide, B.

1997-07-01

This paper presents the methodology, status and plans for the development, assessment and uncertainty evaluation of the Cathare code. Cathare is a thermalhydraulic code developed by CEA (DRN), IPSN, EDF and FRAMATOME for PWR safety analysis. First, the status of the code development and assessment is presented. The general strategy used for the development and the assessment of the code is presented. Analytical experiments with separate effect tests, and component tests are used for the development and the validation of closure laws. Successive Revisions of constitutive laws are implemented in successive Versions of the code and assessed. System tests ormore » integral tests are used to validate the general consistency of the Revision. Each delivery of a code Version + Revision is fully assessed and documented. A methodology is being developed to determine the uncertainty on all constitutive laws of the code using calculations of many analytical tests and applying the Discrete Adjoint Sensitivity Method (DASM). At last, the plans for the future developments of the code are presented. They concern the optimization of the code performance through parallel computing - the code will be used for real time full scope plant simulators - the coupling with many other codes (neutronic codes, severe accident codes), the application of the code for containment thermalhydraulics. Also, physical improvements are required in the field of low pressure transients and in the modeling for the 3-D model.« less

Report of the Inter-Organizational Committee on Evaluation. Internal Evaluation Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Roy; Murray, John

Based upon the premise that school divisions in Manitoba, Canada, should evaluate and improve upon themselves, this evaluation model was developed. The participating personnel and the development of the evaluation model are described. The model has 11 parts: (1) needs assessment; (2) statement of objectives; (3) definition of objectives; (4)…

Novel Modelling Tool for Energetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dossi, Licia

Polymer science combines an understanding of chemistry and material properties to design, develop, model and manufacture new materials with special properties for new applications. The Binders by Design UK programme, funded through the Weapons Science and Technology Centre (WSTC) by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl), develop new polymeric materials for energetic applications that can survive over the increased operating temperature ranges of future weapon platforms and satisfy international and national regulations. A multidisciplinary team of UK chemists, physicists, modellers and end users (Cranfield University, Sheffield-Hallam University, QinetiQ, Fluid Gravity Engineering, BAE Systems UK Land and Roxel UK) research together on the synthesis, characterisation and modelling of novel macromolecules with very promising thermal properties. Group Interaction Modelling supported by molecular mechanics calculations is used for a rapid assessment and selection of candidate molecules. New model and simulation protocols suitable for investigating the glass transition behaviour of HTPB oligomers are developed. The continuum level models and a constitutive model for a binder/energetic system are developing, for application in safety assessments (e.g. low-velocity impact tests).

Model Modules to Assist Assessing and Controlling SCC

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-04-04

This project developed and validated tools to assist in integrity assessment and management both forms of SCC. Because the understanding that underlies integrity management tools was most comprehensive for high-pH SCC, development targeted NN-pH SCC,...

The Development and Exploration of the Psychometric Properties of the Assessment of School Counselor Needs for Professional Development Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burnham, Joy J.; Dahir, Carol A.; Stone, Carolyn B.; Hooper, Lisa M.

2008-01-01

The newly developed Assessment of School Counselor Needs for Professional Development (ASNPD; Dahir & Stone, 2003a, 2003b) survey measures school counselors' readiness to deliver comprehensive school counseling programs (ASCA National Model[R]; American School Counselor Association, 2005) and appraises school counselors' beliefs, priorities, and…

HRST architecture modeling and assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Comstock, D.A.

1997-01-01

This paper presents work supporting the assessment of advanced concept options for the Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST) study. It describes the development of computer models as the basis for creating an integrated capability to evaluate the economic feasibility and sustainability of a variety of system architectures. It summarizes modeling capabilities for use on the HRST study to perform sensitivity analysis of alternative architectures (consisting of different combinations of highly reusable vehicles, launch assist systems, and alternative operations and support concepts) in terms of cost, schedule, performance, and demand. In addition, the identification and preliminary assessment of alternative market segmentsmore » for HRST applications, such as space manufacturing, space tourism, etc., is described. Finally, the development of an initial prototype model that can begin to be used for modeling alternative HRST concepts at the system level is presented. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}« less

Assessment of BTEX-induced health risk under multiple uncertainties at a petroleum-contaminated site: An integrated fuzzy stochastic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Guo H.

2011-12-01

Groundwater pollution has gathered more and more attention in the past decades. Conducting an assessment of groundwater contamination risk is desired to provide sound bases for supporting risk-based management decisions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach to evaluate risks of BTEX-contaminated groundwater under multiple uncertainties. It consists of an integrated interval fuzzy subsurface modeling system (IIFMS) and an integrated fuzzy second-order stochastic risk assessment (IFSOSRA) model. The IIFMS is developed based on factorial design, interval analysis, and fuzzy sets approach to predict contaminant concentrations under hybrid uncertainties. Two input parameters (longitudinal dispersivity and porosity) are considered to be uncertain with known fuzzy membership functions, and intrinsic permeability is considered to be an interval number with unknown distribution information. A factorial design is conducted to evaluate interactive effects of the three uncertain factors on the modeling outputs through the developed IIFMS. The IFSOSRA model can systematically quantify variability and uncertainty, as well as their hybrids, presented as fuzzy, stochastic and second-order stochastic parameters in health risk assessment. The developed approach haw been applied to the management of a real-world petroleum-contaminated site within a western Canada context. The results indicate that multiple uncertainties, under a combination of information with various data-quality levels, can be effectively addressed to provide supports in identifying proper remedial efforts. A unique contribution of this research is the development of an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach for handling various forms of uncertainties associated with simulation and risk assessment efforts.

CHANNEL EVOLUTION IN MODIFIED ALLUVIAL STREAMS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simon, Andrew; Hupp, Cliff R.

1987-01-01

This study (a) assesses the channel changes and network trends of bed level response after modifications between 1959 and 1972 of alluvial channels in western Tennessee and (b) develops a conceptual model of bank slope development to qualitatively assess bank stability and potential channel widening. A six-step, semiquantitative model of channel evolution in disturbed channels was developed by quantifying bed level trends and recognizing qualitative stages of bank slope development. Development of the bank profile is defined in terms of three dynamic and observable surfaces: (a) vertical face (70 to 90 degrees), (b) upper bank (25 to 50 degrees), and (c) slough line (20 to 25 degrees).

Integrating Urban Infrastructure and Health System Impact Modeling for Disasters and Mass-Casualty Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbus, J. M.; Kirsch, T.; Mitrani-Reiser, J.

2017-12-01

Over recent decades, natural disasters and mass-casualty events in United States have repeatedly revealed the serious consequences of health care facility vulnerability and the subsequent ability to deliver care for the affected people. Advances in predictive modeling and vulnerability assessment for health care facility failure, integrated infrastructure, and extreme weather events have now enabled a more rigorous scientific approach to evaluating health care system vulnerability and assessing impacts of natural and human disasters as well as the value of specific interventions. Concurrent advances in computing capacity also allow, for the first time, full integration of these multiple individual models, along with the modeling of population behaviors and mass casualty responses during a disaster. A team of federal and academic investigators led by the National Center for Disaster Medicine and Public Health (NCDMPH) is develoing a platform for integrating extreme event forecasts, health risk/impact assessment and population simulations, critical infrastructure (electrical, water, transportation, communication) impact and response models, health care facility-specific vulnerability and failure assessments, and health system/patient flow responses. The integration of these models is intended to develop much greater understanding of critical tipping points in the vulnerability of health systems during natural and human disasters and build an evidence base for specific interventions. Development of such a modeling platform will greatly facilitate the assessment of potential concurrent or sequential catastrophic events, such as a terrorism act following a severe heat wave or hurricane. This presentation will highlight the development of this modeling platform as well as applications not just for the US health system, but also for international science-based disaster risk reduction efforts, such as the Sendai Framework and the WHO SMART hospital project.

Assessment of sustainable urban transport development based on entropy and unascertained measure

PubMed Central

Li, Yancang; Yang, Jing; Li, Yijie

2017-01-01

To find a more effective method for the assessment of sustainable urban transport development, the comprehensive assessment model of sustainable urban transport development was established based on the unascertained measure. On the basis of considering the factors influencing urban transport development, the comprehensive assessment indexes were selected, including urban economical development, transport demand, environment quality and energy consumption, and the assessment system of sustainable urban transport development was proposed. In view of different influencing factors of urban transport development, the index weight was calculated through the entropy weight coefficient method. Qualitative and quantitative analyses were conducted according to the actual condition. Then, the grade was obtained by using the credible degree recognition criterion from which the urban transport development level can be determined. Finally, a comprehensive assessment method for urban transport development was introduced. The application practice showed that the method can be used reasonably and effectively for the comprehensive assessment of urban transport development. PMID:29084281

Use of Decision Models in the Development of Evidence-Based Clinical Preventive Services Recommendations: Methods of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

PubMed

Owens, Douglas K; Whitlock, Evelyn P; Henderson, Jillian; Pignone, Michael P; Krist, Alex H; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten; Curry, Susan J; Davidson, Karina W; Ebell, Mark; Gillman, Matthew W; Grossman, David C; Kemper, Alex R; Kurth, Ann E; Maciosek, Michael; Siu, Albert L; LeFevre, Michael L

2016-10-04

The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) develops evidence-based recommendations about preventive care based on comprehensive systematic reviews of the best available evidence. Decision models provide a complementary, quantitative approach to support the USPSTF as it deliberates about the evidence and develops recommendations for clinical and policy use. This article describes the rationale for using modeling, an approach to selecting topics for modeling, and how modeling may inform recommendations about clinical preventive services. Decision modeling is useful when clinical questions remain about how to target an empirically established clinical preventive service at the individual or program level or when complex determinations of magnitude of net benefit, overall or among important subpopulations, are required. Before deciding whether to use decision modeling, the USPSTF assesses whether the benefits and harms of the preventive service have been established empirically, assesses whether there are key issues about applicability or implementation that modeling could address, and then defines the decision problem and key questions to address through modeling. Decision analyses conducted for the USPSTF are expected to follow best practices for modeling. For chosen topics, the USPSTF assesses the strengths and limitations of the systematically reviewed evidence and the modeling analyses and integrates the results of each to make preventive service recommendations.

Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuldna, Piret, E-mail: piret.kuldna@seit.ee; Peterson, Kaja; Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the nationalmore » energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.« less

Comparison between two statistically based methods, and two physically based models developed to compute daily mean streamflow at ungaged locations in the Cedar River Basin, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linhart, S. Mike; Nania, Jon F.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hutchinson, Kasey J.; Sanders, Curtis L.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2013-01-01

A variety of individuals from water resource managers to recreational users need streamflow information for planning and decisionmaking at locations where there are no streamgages. To address this problem, two statistically based methods, the Flow Duration Curve Transfer method and the Flow Anywhere method, were developed for statewide application and the two physically based models, the Precipitation Runoff Modeling-System and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, were only developed for application for the Cedar River Basin. Observed and estimated streamflows for the two methods and models were compared for goodness of fit at 13 streamgages modeled in the Cedar River Basin by using the Nash-Sutcliffe and the percent-bias efficiency values. Based on median and mean Nash-Sutcliffe values for the 13 streamgages the Precipitation Runoff Modeling-System and Soil and Water Assessment Tool models appear to have performed similarly and better than Flow Duration Curve Transfer and Flow Anywhere methods. Based on median and mean percent bias values, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model appears to have generally overestimated daily mean streamflows, whereas the Precipitation Runoff Modeling-System model and statistical methods appear to have underestimated daily mean streamflows. The Flow Duration Curve Transfer method produced the lowest median and mean percent bias values and appears to perform better than the other models.

Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment.

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

AIR QUALITY MODELING AT NEIGHBORHOOD SCALES TO IMPROVE HUMAN EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality modeling is an integral component of risk assessment and of subsequent development of effective and efficient management of air quality. Urban areas introduce of fresh sources of pollutants into regional background producing significant spatial variability of the co...

Modeling the survival kinetics of Salmonella in tree nuts for use in risk assessment.

PubMed

Santillana Farakos, Sofia M; Pouillot, Régis; Anderson, Nathan; Johnson, Rhoma; Son, Insook; Van Doren, Jane

2016-06-16

Salmonella has been shown to survive in tree nuts over long periods of time. This survival capacity and its variability are key elements for risk assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict survival of Salmonella in tree nuts at ambient storage temperatures that considers variability and uncertainty separately and can easily be incorporated into a risk assessment model. Data on Salmonella survival on raw almonds, pecans, pistachios and walnuts were collected from the peer reviewed literature. The Weibull model was chosen as the baseline model and various fixed effect and mixed effect models were fit to the data. The best model identified through statistical analysis testing was then used to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model. Salmonella in tree nuts showed slow declines at temperatures ranging from 21°C to 24°C. A high degree of variability in survival was observed across tree nut studies reported in the literature. Statistical analysis results indicated that the best applicable model was a mixed effect model that included a fixed and random variation of δ per tree nut (which is the time it takes for the first log10 reduction) and a fixed variation of ρ per tree nut (parameter which defines the shape of the curve). Higher estimated survival rates (δ) were obtained for Salmonella on pistachios, followed in decreasing order by pecans, almonds and walnuts. The posterior distributions obtained from Bayesian inference were used to estimate the variability in the log10 decrease levels in survival for each tree nut, and the uncertainty of these estimates. These modeled uncertainty and variability distributions of the estimates can be used to obtain a complete exposure assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts when including time-temperature parameters for storage and consumption data. The statistical approach presented in this study may be applied to any studies that aim to develop predictive models to be implemented in a probabilistic exposure assessment or a quantitative microbial risk assessment. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

PubMed

Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

2016-08-15

This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scientific white paper on concentration-QTc modeling.

PubMed

Garnett, Christine; Bonate, Peter L; Dang, Qianyu; Ferber, Georg; Huang, Dalong; Liu, Jiang; Mehrotra, Devan; Riley, Steve; Sager, Philip; Tornoe, Christoffer; Wang, Yaning

2018-06-01

The International Council for Harmonisation revised the E14 guideline through the questions and answers process to allow concentration-QTc (C-QTc) modeling to be used as the primary analysis for assessing the QTc interval prolongation risk of new drugs. A well-designed and conducted QTc assessment based on C-QTc modeling in early phase 1 studies can be an alternative approach to a thorough QT study for some drugs to reliably exclude clinically relevant QTc effects. This white paper provides recommendations on how to plan and conduct a definitive QTc assessment of a drug using C-QTc modeling in early phase clinical pharmacology and thorough QT studies. Topics included are: important study design features in a phase 1 study; modeling objectives and approach; exploratory plots; the pre-specified linear mixed effects model; general principles for model development and evaluation; and expectations for modeling analysis plans and reports. The recommendations are based on current best modeling practices, scientific literature and personal experiences of the authors. These recommendations are expected to evolve as their implementation during drug development provides additional data and with advances in analytical methodology.

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

1993-04-06

Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

Linking linear programming and spatial simulation models to predict landscape effects of forest management alternatives

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; L. Jay Roberts; Larry A. Leefers

2006-01-01

Forest management planners require analytical tools to assess the effects of alternative strategies on the sometimes disparate benefits from forests such as timber production and wildlife habitat. We assessed the spatial patterns of alternative management strategies by linking two models that were developed for different purposes. We used a linear programming model (...

Development and assessment of a physics-based simulation model to investigate residential PM2.5 infiltration across the US housing stock

EPA Science Inventory

The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Population Impact Assessment Modeling Framework (PIAMF) was expanded to enable determination of indoor PM2.5 concentrations and exposures in a set of 50,000 homes representing the US housing stock. A mass-balance model is used to calculat...

Marketing and Quality of Life: A Model for Improving Perinatal Health Status

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dever, G. E. Alan; Smith, Leah T.; Stamps, Bunnie V.

2005-01-01

Introduction: A marketing/business model using non-traditional Quality of Life measures was developed to assess perinatal health status on a micro-geographic level. This perinatal health status needs assessment study for Georgia South Central Region was conducted for the years 1994-1999. The model may be applied to any geographic unit in the…

Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, C W

1984-01-01

This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

PROJECT SUMMARY: DEVELOPMENT OF THE VIRTUAL BEACH MODEL, PHASE I: AN EMPIRICAL MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

Mathematical models based on water-quality and other environmental surrogates may help to provide water quality assessment within a few hours and potentially provide one to three day forecasts, providing beach managers and public-health officials a tool for developing beach-speci...

Impact of model development, calibration and validation decisions on hydrological simulations in West Lake Erie Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Watershed simulation models are used extensively to investigate hydrologic processes, landuse and climate change impacts, pollutant load assessments and best management practices (BMPs). Developing, calibrating and validating these models require a number of critical decisions that will influence t...

Assessment of Effectiveness and Limitations of Habitat Suitability Models for Wetland Restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Draugelis-Dale, Rassa O.

2008-01-01

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models developed for wildlife in the Louisiana Coastal Area Comprehensive Ecosystem Restoration Plan (LCA study) have been assessed for parameter and overall model quality. The success of the suitability models from the South Florida Water Management District for The Everglades restoration project and from the Spatially Explicit Species Index Models (SESI) of the Across Trophic Level System Simulation (ATLSS) Program of Florida warranted investigation with possible application of modeling theory to the current LCA study. General HSI models developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service were also investigated. This report presents examinations of theoretical formulae and comparisons of the models, performed by using diverse hypothetical settings of hydrological/biological ecosystems to highlight weaknesses as well as strengths among the models, limited to the American alligator and selected wading bird species (great blue heron, great egret, and white ibis). Recommendations were made for the LCA study based on these assessments. An enhanced HSI model for the LCA study is proposed for the American alligator, and a new HSI model for wading birds is introduced for the LCA study. Performance comparisons of the proposed models with the other suitability models are made by using the aforementioned hypothetical settings.

Assessment of health surveys: fitting a multidimensional graded response model.

PubMed

Depaoli, Sarah; Tiemensma, Jitske; Felt, John M

The multidimensional graded response model, an item response theory (IRT) model, can be used to improve the assessment of surveys, even when sample sizes are restricted. Typically, health-based survey development utilizes classical statistical techniques (e.g. reliability and factor analysis). In a review of four prominent journals within the field of Health Psychology, we found that IRT-based models were used in less than 10% of the studies examining scale development or assessment. However, implementing IRT-based methods can provide more details about individual survey items, which is useful when determining the final item content of surveys. An example using a quality of life survey for Cushing's syndrome (CushingQoL) highlights the main components for implementing the multidimensional graded response model. Patients with Cushing's syndrome (n = 397) completed the CushingQoL. Results from the multidimensional graded response model supported a 2-subscale scoring process for the survey. All items were deemed as worthy contributors to the survey. The graded response model can accommodate unidimensional or multidimensional scales, be used with relatively lower sample sizes, and is implemented in free software (example code provided in online Appendix). Use of this model can help to improve the quality of health-based scales being developed within the Health Sciences.

Program management model study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connelly, J. J.; Russell, J. E.; Seline, J. R.; Sumner, N. R., Jr.

1972-01-01

Two models, a system performance model and a program assessment model, have been developed to assist NASA management in the evaluation of development alternatives for the Earth Observations Program. Two computer models were developed and demonstrated on the Goddard Space Flight Center Computer Facility. Procedures have been outlined to guide the user of the models through specific evaluation processes, and the preparation of inputs describing earth observation needs and earth observation technology. These models are intended to assist NASA in increasing the effectiveness of the overall Earth Observation Program by providing a broader view of system and program development alternatives.

Warfighter decision making performance analysis as an investment priority driver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornley, David J.; Dean, David F.; Kirk, James C.

2010-04-01

Estimating the relative value of alternative tactics, techniques and procedures (TTP) and information systems requires measures of the costs and benefits of each, and methods for combining and comparing those measures. The NATO Code of Best Practice for Command and Control Assessment explains that decision making quality would ideally be best assessed on outcomes. Lessons learned in practice can be assessed statistically to support this, but experimentation with alternate measures in live conflict is undesirable. To this end, the development of practical experimentation to parameterize effective constructive simulation and analytic modelling for system utility prediction is desirable. The Land Battlespace Systems Department of Dstl has modeled human development of situational awareness to support constructive simulation by empirically discovering how evidence is weighed according to circumstance, personality, training and briefing. The human decision maker (DM) provides the backbone of the information processing activity associated with military engagements because of inherent uncertainty associated with combat operations. To develop methods for representing the process in order to assess equipment and non-technological interventions such as training and TTPs we are developing componentized or modularized timed analytic stochastic model components and instruments as part of a framework to support quantitative assessment of intelligence production and consumption methods in a human decision maker-centric mission space. In this paper, we formulate an abstraction of the human intelligence fusion process from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory's (Dstl's) INCIDER model to include in our framework, and synthesize relevant cost and benefit characteristics.

The NBS Energy Model Assessment project: Summary and overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gass, S. I.; Hoffman, K. L.; Jackson, R. H. F.; Joel, L. S.; Saunders, P. B.

1980-09-01

The activities and technical reports for the project are summarized. The reports cover: assessment of the documentation of Midterm Oil and Gas Supply Modeling System; analysis of the model methodology characteristics of the input and other supporting data; statistical procedures undergirding construction of the model and sensitivity of the outputs to variations in input, as well as guidelines and recommendations for the role of these in model building and developing procedures for their evaluation.

Assessing elders using the functional health pattern assessment model.

PubMed

Beyea, S; Matzo, M

1989-01-01

The impact of older Americans on the health care system requires we increase our students' awareness of their unique needs. The authors discuss strategies to develop skills using Gordon's Functional Health Patterns Assessment for assessing older clients.

AgMIP 1.5°C Assessment: Mitigation and Adaptation at Coordinated Global and Regional Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2016-12-01

The AgMIP 1.5°C Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (AgMIP 1.5 CGRA) is linking site-based crop and livestock models with similar models run on global grids, and then links these biophysical components with economics models and nutrition metrics at regional and global scales. The AgMIP 1.5 CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, nutrition, and food security to define the 1.5°C Protocols and guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including socioeconomic development (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), greenhouse gas concentrations (Representative Concentration Pathways), and specific pathways of agricultural sector development (Representative Agricultural Pathways). Shared Climate Policy Assumptions will be extended to provide additional agricultural detail on mitigation and adaptation strategies. The multi-model, multi-disciplinary, multi-scale integrated assessment framework is using scenarios of economic development, adaptation, mitigation, food policy, and food security. These coordinated assessments are grounded in the expertise of AgMIP partners around the world, leading to more consistent results and messages for stakeholders, policymakers, and the scientific community. The early inclusion of nutrition and food security experts has helped to ensure that assessment outputs include important metrics upon which investment and policy decisions may be based. The CGRA builds upon existing AgMIP research groups (e.g., the AgMIP Wheat Team and the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Modeling Initiative; GGCMI) and regional programs (e.g., AgMIP Regional Teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia), with new protocols for cross-scale and cross-disciplinary linkages to ensure the propagation of expert judgment and consistent assumptions.

Engineered Barrier System: Physical and Chemical Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

P. Dixon

2004-04-26

The conceptual and predictive models documented in this Engineered Barrier System: Physical and Chemical Environment Model report describe the evolution of the physical and chemical conditions within the waste emplacement drifts of the repository. The modeling approaches and model output data will be used in the total system performance assessment (TSPA-LA) to assess the performance of the engineered barrier system and the waste form. These models evaluate the range of potential water compositions within the emplacement drifts, resulting from the interaction of introduced materials and minerals in dust with water seeping into the drifts and with aqueous solutions forming bymore » deliquescence of dust (as influenced by atmospheric conditions), and from thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) processes in the drift. These models also consider the uncertainty and variability in water chemistry inside the drift and the compositions of introduced materials within the drift. This report develops and documents a set of process- and abstraction-level models that constitute the engineered barrier system: physical and chemical environment model. Where possible, these models use information directly from other process model reports as input, which promotes integration among process models used for total system performance assessment. Specific tasks and activities of modeling the physical and chemical environment are included in the technical work plan ''Technical Work Plan for: In-Drift Geochemistry Modeling'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 166519]). As described in the technical work plan, the development of this report is coordinated with the development of other engineered barrier system analysis model reports.« less

Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introductionmore » to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.« less

Development and application of a 3-D geometry/mass model for LDEF satellite ionizing radiation assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colborn, B. L.; Armstong, T. W.

1993-01-01

A three-dimensional geometry and mass model of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) spacecraft and experiment trays was developed for use in predictions and data interpretation related to ionizing radiation measurements. The modeling approach, level of detail incorporated, example models for specific experiments and radiation dosimeters, and example applications of the model are described.

Development and assessment of an integrated ecological modelling framework to assess the effect of investments in wastewater treatment on water quality.

PubMed

Holguin-Gonzalez, Javier E; Boets, Pieter; Everaert, Gert; Pauwels, Ine S; Lock, Koen; Gobeyn, Sacha; Benedetti, Lorenzo; Amerlinck, Youri; Nopens, Ingmar; Goethals, Peter L M

2014-01-01

Worldwide, large investments in wastewater treatment are made to improve water quality. However, the impacts of these investments on river water quality are often not quantified. To assess water quality, the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires an integrated approach. The aim of this study was to develop an integrated ecological modelling framework for the River Drava (Croatia) that includes physical-chemical and hydromorphological characteristics as well as the ecological river water quality status. The developed submodels and the integrated model showed accurate predictions when comparing the modelled results to the observations. Dissolved oxygen and nitrogen concentrations (ammonium and organic nitrogen) were the most important variables in determining the ecological water quality (EWQ). The result of three potential investment scenarios of the wastewater treatment infrastructure in the city of Varaždin on the EWQ of the River Drava was assessed. From this scenario-based analysis, it was concluded that upgrading the existing wastewater treatment plant with nitrogen and phosphorus removal will be insufficient to reach a good EWQ. Therefore, other point and diffuse pollution sources in the area should also be monitored and remediated to meet the European WFD standards.

Methodology for assessing the safety of Hydrogen Systems: HyRAM 1.1 technical reference manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina; Hecht, Ethan; Reynolds, John Thomas

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM is envisioned as a unifying platform combining validated, analytical models of hydrogen behavior, a stan- dardized, transparent QRA approach, and engineering models and generic data for hydrogen installations. HyRAM is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U. S. De- partment of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety andmore » to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in the HyRAM version 1.1. HyRAM 1.1 includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment fail- ures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and computa- tionally and experimentally validated analytical and first order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM 1.1 integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is a prototype software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals.« less

Development of the quality assessment model of EHR software in family medicine practices: research based on user satisfaction.

PubMed

Kralj, Damir; Kern, Josipa; Tonkovic, Stanko; Koncar, Miroslav

2015-09-09

Family medicine practices (FMPs) make the basis for the Croatian health care system. Use of electronic health record (EHR) software is mandatory and it plays an important role in running these practices, but important functional features still remain uneven and largely left to the will of the software developers. The objective of this study was to develop a novel and comprehensive model for functional evaluation of the EHR software in FMPs, based on current world standards, models and projects, as well as on actual user satisfaction and requirements. Based on previous theoretical and experimental research in this area, we made the initial framework model consisting of six basic categories as a base for online survey questionnaire. Family doctors assessed perceived software quality by using a five-point Likert-type scale. Using exploratory factor analysis and appropriate statistical methods over the collected data, the final optimal structure of the novel model was formed. Special attention was focused on the validity and quality of the novel model. The online survey collected a total of 384 cases. The obtained results indicate both the quality of the assessed software and the quality in use of the novel model. The intense ergonomic orientation of the novel measurement model was particularly emphasised. The resulting novel model is multiple validated, comprehensive and universal. It could be used to assess the user-perceived quality of almost all forms of the ambulatory EHR software and therefore useful to all stakeholders in this area of the health care informatisation.

Student Generated Rubrics: An Assessment Model To Help All Students Succeed. Assessment Bookshelf Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ainsworth, Larry; Christinson, Jan

The assessment model described in this guide was initially developed by a team of fifth-grade teachers who wrote objectives of integrating social studies and language arts. It helps the teacher guide students to create a task-specific rubric that they use to evaluate their own and peers' work. Teachers review the student evaluations, determine the…

Using Think Aloud Interviews in Evidence-Centered Assessment Design for the AP World History Exam

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaliski, Pamela; France, Megan; Huff, Kristen; Thurber, Allison

2011-01-01

Developing a cognitive model of task performance is an important and often overlooked phase in assessment design; failing to establish such a model can threaten the validity of the inferences made from the scores produced by an assessment (e.g., Leighton, 2004). Conducting think aloud interviews (TAIs), where students think aloud while completing…

An Automated System for Skeletal Maturity Assessment by Extreme Learning Machines

PubMed Central

Mansourvar, Marjan; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Raj, Ram Gopal; Gunalan, Roshan; Mazinani, Iman

2015-01-01

Assessing skeletal age is a subjective and tedious examination process. Hence, automated assessment methods have been developed to replace manual evaluation in medical applications. In this study, a new fully automated method based on content-based image retrieval and using extreme learning machines (ELM) is designed and adapted to assess skeletal maturity. The main novelty of this approach is it overcomes the segmentation problem as suffered by existing systems. The estimation results of ELM models are compared with those of genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) models. The experimental results signify improvement in assessment accuracy over GP and ANN, while generalization capability is possible with the ELM approach. Moreover, the results are indicated that the ELM model developed can be used confidently in further work on formulating novel models of skeletal age assessment strategies. According to the experimental results, the new presented method has the capacity to learn many hundreds of times faster than traditional learning methods and it has sufficient overall performance in many aspects. It has conclusively been found that applying ELM is particularly promising as an alternative method for evaluating skeletal age. PMID:26402795

Assessing Preservice Teachers' Presentation Capabilities: Contrasting the Modes of Communication with the Constructed Impression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bower, Matt G.; Moloney, Robyn A.; Cavanagh, Michael S.; Sweller, Naomi

2013-01-01

A research-based understanding of how to develop and assess classroom presentation skills is vital for the effective development of pre-service teacher communication capabilities. This paper identifies and compares two different models of assessing pre-service teachers' presentation performance--one based on the Modes of Communication (voice,…

Development of a 3D patient-specific planning platform for interstitial and transurethral ultrasound thermal therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, Punit; Diederich, Chris J.

2010-03-01

Interstitial and transurethral catheter-based ultrasound devices are under development for treatment of prostate cancer and BPH, uterine fibroids, liver tumors and other soft tissue disease. Accurate 3D thermal modeling is essential for designing site-specific applicators, exploring treatment delivery strategies, and integration of patient-specific treatment planning of thermal ablations. We are developing a comprehensive 3D modeling and treatment planning platform for ultrasound ablation of tissue using catheter-based applicators. We explored the applicability of assessing thermal effects in tissue using critical temperature, thermal dose and Arrhenius thermal damage thresholds and performed a comparative analysis of dynamic tissue properties critical to accurate modeling. We used the model to assess the feasibility of automatic feedback control with MR thermometry, and demonstrated the utility of the modeling platform for 3D patient-specific treatment planning. We have identified critical temperature, thermal dose and thermal damage thresholds for assessing treatment endpoint. Dynamic changes in tissue attenuation/absorption and perfusion must be included for accurate prediction of temperature profiles and extents of the ablation zone. Lastly, we demonstrated use of the modeling platform for patient-specific treatment planning.

Modelling consumer intakes of vegetable oils and fats

PubMed Central

Tennant, David; Gosling, John Paul

2015-01-01

Vegetable oils and fats make up a significant part of the energy intake in typical European diets. However, their use as ingredients in a diverse range of different foods means that their consumption is often hidden, especially when oils and fats are used for cooking. As a result, there are no reliable estimates of the consumption of different vegetable oils and fats in the diet of European consumers for use in, for example, nutritional assessments or chemical risk assessments. We have developed an innovative model to estimate the consumption of vegetable oils and fats by European Union consumers using the European Union consumption databases and elements of probabilistic modelling. A key feature of the approach is the assessment of uncertainty in the modelling assumptions that can be used to build user confidence and to guide future development. PMID:26160467

Modelling consumer intakes of vegetable oils and fats.

PubMed

Tennant, David; Gosling, John Paul

2015-01-01

Vegetable oils and fats make up a significant part of the energy intake in typical European diets. However, their use as ingredients in a diverse range of different foods means that their consumption is often hidden, especially when oils and fats are used for cooking. As a result, there are no reliable estimates of the consumption of different vegetable oils and fats in the diet of European consumers for use in, for example, nutritional assessments or chemical risk assessments. We have developed an innovative model to estimate the consumption of vegetable oils and fats by European Union consumers using the European Union consumption databases and elements of probabilistic modelling. A key feature of the approach is the assessment of uncertainty in the modelling assumptions that can be used to build user confidence and to guide future development.

How Can We Assess and Evaluate the Competitive Advantage of a Country's Human Resource Development System?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oh, Hunseok; Ryu, Hyue-Hyun; Choi, Myungweon

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an index to assess and evaluate the competitive advantage of a country's human resource development system. Based on an extensive literature review, a theoretical model of a human resource development system at the national level (named National Human Resource Development: NHRD) was constructed. The…

Finite-element three-dimensional ground-water (FE3DGW) flow model - formulation, program listings and users' manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gupta, S.K.; Cole, C.R.; Bond, F.W.

1979-12-01

The Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program is developing and applying the methodology for assessing the far-field, long-term post-closure safety of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories. AEGIS is being performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (OWNI) for the Department of Energy (DOE). One task within AEGIS is the development of methodology for analysis of the consequences (water pathway) from loss of repository containment as defined by various release scenarios. Analysis of the long-term, far-field consequences of release scenarios requires the application of numerical codes which simulate the hydrologicmore » systems, model the transport of released radionuclides through the hydrologic systems to the biosphere, and, where applicable, assess the radiological dose to humans. Hydrologic and transport models are available at several levels of complexity or sophistication. Model selection and use are determined by the quantity and quality of input data. Model development under AEGIS and related programs provides three levels of hydrologic models, two levels of transport models, and one level of dose models (with several separate models). This document consists of the description of the FE3DGW (Finite Element, Three-Dimensional Groundwater) Hydrologic model third level (high complexity) three-dimensional, finite element approach (Galerkin formulation) for saturated groundwater flow.« less

Implications of Nonlinear Concentration Response Curve for Ozone related Mortality on Health Burden Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We characterize the sensitivity of the ozone attributable health burden assessment with respect to different modeling strategies of concentration-response function. For this purpose, we develop a flexible Bayesian hierarchical model allowing for a nonlinear ozone risk curve with ...

Projecting state-level air pollutant emissions using an integrated assessment model: GCAM-USA.

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) characterize the interactions among human and earth systems. IAMs typically have been applied to investigate future energy, land use, and emission pathways at global to continental scales. Recent directions in IAM development include enhanced t...

ASSESSING RESIDENTIAL EXPOSURE USING THE STOCHASTIC HUMAN EXPOSURE AND DOSE SIMULATION (SHEDS) MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

As part of a workshop sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development and Office of Pesticide Programs, the Aggregate Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) Model was used to assess potential aggregate residential pesticide e...

Clinical Assessment of Family Caregivers in Dementia.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rankin, Eric D.; And Others

1992-01-01

Evaluated development of integrated family assessment inventory based on Double ABCX and Circumplex models of family functioning and its clinical utility with 121 primary family caregivers from cognitive disorders program. Proposed model predicted significant proportion of variance associated with caregiver stress and strain. Several aspects of…

Algal Supply System Design - Harmonized Version

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abodeely, Jared; Stevens, Daniel; Ray, Allison

2013-03-01

The objective of this design report is to provide an assessment of current technologies used for production, dewatering, and converting microalgae cultivated in open-pond systems to biofuel. The original draft design was created in 2011 and has subsequently been brought into agreement with the DOE harmonized model. The design report extends beyond this harmonized model to discuss some of the challenges with assessing algal production systems, including the ability to (1) quickly assess alternative algal production system designs, (2) assess spatial and temporal variability, and (3) perform large-scale assessments considering multiple scenarios for thousands of potential sites. The Algae Logisticsmore » Model (ALM) was developed to address each of these limitations of current modeling efforts to enable assessment of the economic feasibility of algal production systems across the United States. The (ALM) enables (1) dynamic assessments using spatiotemporal conditions, (2) exploration of algal production system design configurations, (3) investigation of algal production system operating assumptions, and (4) trade-off assessments with technology decisions and operating assumptions. The report discusses results from the ALM, which is used to assess the baseline design determined by harmonization efforts between U.S. DOE national laboratories. Productivity and resource assessment data is provided by coupling the ALM with the Biomass Assessment Tool developed at PNNL. This high-fidelity data is dynamically passed to the ALM and used to help better understand the impacts of spatial and temporal constraints on algal production systems by providing a cost for producing extracted algal lipids annually for each potential site.« less

Georgia Vocational Student Assessment Project. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vocational Technical Education Consortium of States, Atlanta, GA.

A project was conducted to develop vocational education tests for use in Georgia secondary schools, specifically for welding, machine shop, and sheet metal courses. The project team developed an outline of an assessment model that included the following components: (1) select a program for use in developing test items; (2) verify duties, tasks,…

Greenwich Township Environmental Analysis: A Field Study 1972-74.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bahorik, J. Wesley, Ed.

This project attempted to develop a baseline on which the community could assess its own local environment. The objectives of the study include developing a list of references and resources, developing an assessment model for community use, composing an environmental quality index, determining areas to be protected and persuading decision-making…

Identification of a Competency Model for the Recruitment, Retention & Development of Intermodal Transportation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-30

The objective of this research project will be to develop a detailed and valid model of the managerial and executive competencies that are need to recruit assess train and develop the next generation of executives and managers that will guide the int...

Prognosis model for stand development

Treesearch

Albert R. Stage

1973-01-01

Describes a set of computer programs for developing prognoses of the development of existing stand under alternative regimes of management. Calibration techniques, modeling procedures, and a procedure for including stochastic variation are described. Implementation of the system for lodgepole pine, including assessment of losses attributed to an infestation of mountain...

The predictive ability of six pharmacokinetic models of rocuronium developed using a single bolus: evaluation with bolus and continuous infusion regimen.

PubMed

Sasakawa, Tomoki; Masui, Kenichi; Kazama, Tomiei; Iwasaki, Hiroshi

2016-08-01

Rocuronium concentration prediction using pharmacokinetic (PK) models would be useful for controlling rocuronium effects because neuromuscular monitoring throughout anesthesia can be difficult. This study assessed whether six different compartmental PK models developed from data obtained after bolus administration only could predict the measured plasma concentration (Cp) values of rocuronium delivered by bolus followed by continuous infusion. Rocuronium Cp values from 19 healthy subjects who received a bolus dose followed by continuous infusion in a phase III multicenter trial in Japan were used retrospectively as evaluation datasets. Six different compartmental PK models of rocuronium were used to simulate rocuronium Cp time course values, which were compared with measured Cp values. Prediction error (PE) derivatives of median absolute PE (MDAPE), median PE (MDPE), wobble, divergence absolute PE, and divergence PE were used to assess inaccuracy, bias, intra-individual variability, and time-related trends in APE and PE values. MDAPE and MDPE values were acceptable only for the Magorian and Kleijn models. The divergence PE value for the Kleijn model was lower than -10 %/h, indicating unstable prediction over time. The Szenohradszky model had the lowest divergence PE (-2.7 %/h) and wobble (5.4 %) values with negative bias (MDPE = -25.9 %). These three models were developed using the mixed-effects modeling approach. The Magorian model showed the best PE derivatives among the models assessed. A PK model developed from data obtained after single-bolus dosing can predict Cp values during bolus and continuous infusion. Thus, a mixed-effects modeling approach may be preferable in extrapolating such data.

MANAGING EXPOSURES TO NEUROTOXIC AIR POLLUTANTS.

EPA Science Inventory

Researchers at EPA's National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory are developing a biologically-based dose-response model to describe the neurotoxic effects of exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The model is being developed to improve risk assessment...

WHAT ARE THE BEST MEANS TO ASSESS SITES AND MOVE TOWARD CLOSURE, USING APPROPRIATE SITE SPECIFIC RISK EVALUATIONS?

EPA Science Inventory

To facilitate evaluation of existing site characterization data, ORD has developed on-line tools and models that integrate data and models into innovative applications. Forty calculators have been developed in four groups: parameter estimators, models, scientific demos and unit ...

Gender-Sensitive Social Work Practice: A Model for Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norman, Judith; Wheeler, Barbara

1996-01-01

Although women comprise the majority of social work clients, most psychological models of assessment and intervention are based on male psychological development. Feminist theories and therapies have turned attention to female development and its differences from male progression. A psychotherapeutic model for practice and education that allows…

Applications of the Wilkinson Model of Writing Maturity to College Writing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sternglass, Marilyn

1982-01-01

Examines the four-category model developed by Andrew Wilkinson at the University of Essex (England) to assess growth in writing maturity. The four measures of development are stylistic, affective, cognitive, and moral. Each has several subcategories. Includes college student essays to illustrate the model. (HTH)

Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Runway Incursion Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Lawrence L.

2014-01-01

In a previous paper, a statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) events was conducted to ascertain their relevance to the top ten Technical Challenges (TC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The study revealed connections to perhaps several of the AvSP top ten TC. That data also identified several primary causes and contributing factors for RI events that served as the basis for developing a system-level Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for RI events. The system-level BBN model will allow NASA to generically model the causes of RI events and to assess the effectiveness of technology products being developed under NASA funding. These products are intended to reduce the frequency of RI events in particular, and to improve runway safety in general. The development, structure and assessment of that BBN for RI events by a Subject Matter Expert panel are documented in this paper.

A Formal Investigation of Human Spatial Control Skills: Mathematical Formalization, Skill Development, and Skill Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bin

Spatial control behaviors account for a large proportion of human everyday activities from normal daily tasks, such as reaching for objects, to specialized tasks, such as driving, surgery, or operating equipment. These behaviors involve intensive interactions within internal processes (i.e. cognitive, perceptual, and motor control) and with the physical world. This dissertation builds on a concept of interaction pattern and a hierarchical functional model. Interaction pattern represents a type of behavior synergy that humans coordinates cognitive, perceptual, and motor control processes. It contributes to the construction of the hierarchical functional model that delineates humans spatial control behaviors as the coordination of three functional subsystems: planning, guidance, and tracking/pursuit. This dissertation formalizes and validates these two theories and extends them for the investigation of human spatial control skills encompassing development and assessment. Specifically, this dissertation first presents an overview of studies in human spatial control skills encompassing definition, characteristic, development, and assessment, to provide theoretical evidence for the concept of interaction pattern and the hierarchical functional model. The following, the human experiments for collecting motion and gaze data and techniques to register and classify gaze data, are described. This dissertation then elaborates and mathematically formalizes the hierarchical functional model and the concept of interaction pattern. These theories then enables the construction of a succinct simulation model that can reproduce a variety of human performance with a minimal set of hypotheses. This validates the hierarchical functional model as a normative framework for interpreting human spatial control behaviors. The dissertation then investigates human skill development and captures the emergence of interaction pattern. The final part of the dissertation applies the hierarchical functional model for skill assessment and introduces techniques to capture interaction patterns both from the top down using their geometric features and from the bottom up using their dynamical characteristics. The validity and generality of the skill assessment is illustrated using two the remote-control flight and laparoscopic surgical training experiments.

Operations Assessment of Launch Vehicle Architectures using Activity Based Cost Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruiz-Torres, Alex J.; McCleskey, Carey

2000-01-01

The growing emphasis on affordability for space transportation systems requires the assessment of new space vehicles for all life cycle activities, from design and development, through manufacturing and operations. This paper addresses the operational assessment of launch vehicles, focusing on modeling the ground support requirements of a vehicle architecture, and estimating the resulting costs and flight rate. This paper proposes the use of Activity Based Costing (ABC) modeling for this assessment. The model uses expert knowledge to determine the activities, the activity times and the activity costs based on vehicle design characteristics. The approach provides several advantages to current approaches to vehicle architecture assessment including easier validation and allowing vehicle designers to understand the cost and cycle time drivers.

Limitations of JEDI Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

Science.gov Websites

precise forecast. The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are input-output based models for assessing economic impacts and jobs, including JEDI (see Chapter 5, pp. 136-142). The most not reflect many other economic impacts that could affect real-world impacts on jobs from the project

A Multidimensional Model for Child Maltreatment Prevention Readiness in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mikton, Christopher; Mehra, Radhika; Butchart, Alexander; Addiss, David; Almuneef, Maha; Cardia, Nancy; Cheah, Irene; Chen, JingQi; Makoae, Mokhantso; Raleva, Marija

2011-01-01

The study's aim was to develop a multidimensional model for the assessment of child maltreatment prevention readiness in low- and middle-income countries. The model was developed based on a conceptual review of relevant existing models and approaches, an international expert consultation, and focus groups in six countries. The final model…

Development and testing of a physically based model of streambank erosion for coupling with a basin-scale hydrologic model SWAT

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A comprehensive stream bank erosion model based on excess shear stress has been developed and incorporated in the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). It takes into account processes such as weathering, vegetative cover, and channel meanders to adjust critical and effective str...

Personality: individual differences and clinical assessment.

PubMed

Butcher, J N; Rouse, S V

1996-01-01

Research in clinical personality assessment continues to be produced at a high rate. The MMPI/MMPI-2 remains the most popular instrument for both clinical application and psychopathology research. Two other clinical personality instruments, the Rorschach and TAT, continue to find a place in research and clinical assessment. Some new instruments have surfaced recently to deal with areas, such as personality disorders, that have been considered inadequately addressed. There is a growing recognition that the Five-Factor Model is too superficial for clinical assessment that requires more refined and broadened patient information. Clinical personality assessment has successfully survived a number of past challenges. The newest challenge stems from the health-care revolution, in which managed-care providers are reluctant to pay for assessment because of shrinking funds. Psychologists need to develop models for incorporating assessment information into the treatment process. The future is likely to see more extensive research and theoretical development in this endeavor.

Sidney Blatt's Contributions to Personality Assessment.

PubMed

Auerbach, John S

2016-01-01

Over a long, distinguished career, Sidney Blatt contributed to theory and research in personality development, personality assessment, and psychotherapy. Best known for his 2-configurations model of personality and author or co-author of more than 250 articles and 18 books and monographs, Blatt was also a master clinician, a psychoanalyst who was awarded the 1989 Bruno J. Klopfer Award by the Society for Personality Assessment (SPA) for his contributions to both self-report and performance-based assessment. He was also the president of SPA from 1984 to 1986. This special series contains papers by writers who participated in all aspects of Blatt's contributions to personality assessment, both self-report and performance-based. Topics covered include Blatt's 2-configurations model of personality, development, and psychopathology; boundary disturbance and psychosis in performance-based assessment; the interaction of gender and personality on narrative assessments; and the Object Relations Inventory and differentiation relatedness, especially as these relate to therapeutic outcome.

Assessment of freshwater withdrawals and availability for Marcellus shale natural gas development: a case study in Pennsylvania

Treesearch

Patrick C. Eisenhauer; Nicolas P. Zegre; Samuel J. Lamont

2013-01-01

To evaluate surface water withdrawals used for Marcellus shale natural gas development and to assess potential impacts on water yield, a regional water balance model was developed for the Pine Creek watershed, located primarily in Lycoming County, Pennsylvania. Marcellus shale development has increased rapidly in Lycoming County since 2007. We used precipitation,...

Assessment of Ocean Wave Model used to Analyze the Constellation Program (CxP) Orion Project Crew Module Water Landing Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Bryan K.; Bouchard, Richard; Teng, Chung-Chu; Dyson, Rodger; Jenson, Robert; OReilly, William; Rogers, Erick; Wang, David; Volovoi, Vitali

2009-01-01

Mr. Christopher Johnson, NASA's Systems Manager for the Orion Project Crew Module (CM) Landing and Recovery at the Johnson Space Center (JSC), and Mr. James Corliss, Project Engineer for the Orion CM Landing System Advanced Development Project at the Langley Research Center (LaRC) requested an independent assessment of the wave model that was developed to analyze the CM water landing conditions. A NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) initial evaluation was approved November 20, 2008. Mr. Bryan Smith, NESC Chief Engineer at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), was selected to lead this assessment. The Assessment Plan was presented and approved by the NESC Review Board (NRB) on December 18, 2008. The Assessment Report was presented to the NRB on March 12, 2009. This document is the final Assessment Report.

Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

PubMed

Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

2018-05-01

Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

Development and application of damage assessment modeling: example assessment for the North Cape oil spill.

PubMed

McCay, Deborah French

2003-01-01

Natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) models for oil spills have been under development since 1984. Generally applicable (simplified) versions with built-in data sets are included in US government regulations for NRDAs in US waters. The most recent version of these models is SIMAP (Spill Impact Model Application Package), which contains oil fates and effects models that may be applied to any spill event and location in marine or freshwater environments. It is often not cost-effective or even possible to quantify spill impacts using field data collections. Modeling allows quantification of spill impacts using as much site-specific data as available, either as input or as validation of model results. SIMAP was used for the North Cape oil spill in Rhode Island (USA) in January 1996, for injury quantification in the first and largest NRDA case to be performed under the 1996 Oil Pollution Act NRDA regulations. The case was successfully settled in 1999. This paper, which contains a description of the model and application to the North Cape spill, delineates and demonstrates the approach.

Improving the Validity of Activity of Daily Living Dependency Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Clark, Daniel O.; Stump, Timothy E.; Tu, Wanzhu; Miller, Douglas K.

2015-01-01

Objectives Efforts to prevent activity of daily living (ADL) dependency may be improved through models that assess older adults’ dependency risk. We evaluated whether cognition and gait speed measures improve the predictive validity of interview-based models. Method Participants were 8,095 self-respondents in the 2006 Health and Retirement Survey who were aged 65 years or over and independent in five ADLs. Incident ADL dependency was determined from the 2008 interview. Models were developed using random 2/3rd cohorts and validated in the remaining 1/3rd. Results Compared to a c-statistic of 0.79 in the best interview model, the model including cognitive measures had c-statistics of 0.82 and 0.80 while the best fitting gait speed model had c-statistics of 0.83 and 0.79 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Conclusion Two relatively brief models, one that requires an in-person assessment and one that does not, had excellent validity for predicting incident ADL dependency but did not significantly improve the predictive validity of the best fitting interview-based models. PMID:24652867

Expanding the "CBAL"™ Mathematics Assessments to Elementary Grades: The Development of a Competency Model and a Rational Number Learning Progression. Research Report. ETS RR-14-08

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arieli-Attali, Meirav; Cayton-Hodges, Gabrielle

2014-01-01

Prior work on the "CBAL"™ mathematics competency model resulted in an initial competency model for middle school grades with several learning progressions (LPs) that elaborate central ideas in the competency model and provide a basis for connecting summative and formative assessment. In the current project, we created a competency model…

Hydrological Modelling using HEC-HMS for Flood Risk Assessment of Segamat Town, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romali, N. S.; Yusop, Z.; Ismail, A. Z.

2018-03-01

This paper presents an assessment of the applicability of using Hydrologic Modelling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS) for hydrological modelling of Segamat River. The objective of the model application is to assist in the assessment of flood risk by providing the peak flows of 2011 Segamat flood for the generation of flood mapping of Segamat town. The capability of the model was evaluated by comparing the historical observed data with the simulation results of the selected flood events. The model calibration and validation efficiency was verified using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The results demonstrate the interest to implement the hydrological model for assessing flood risk where the simulated peak flow result is in agreement with historical observed data. The model efficiency of the calibrated and validated exercises is 0.90 and 0.76 respectively, which is acceptable.

National Assessment of Writing: Useless and Uninteresting?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maxwell, John C.

1973-01-01

Points out flaws in the current National Assessment of Writing model and its results, but concludes that the National Assessment is a step in the right direction. (RB) Aspect of National Assessment (NAEP) dealt with in this document: Procedures (Exercise Development).

Integrating Wind Profiling Radars and Radiosonde Observations with Model Point Data to Develop a Decision Support Tool to Assess Upper-Level Winds for Space Launch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Flinn, Clay

2013-01-01

On the day-of-launch, the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers to include NASA's Launch Services Program and NASA's Ground Systems Development and Operations Program. They currently do not have the capability to display and overlay profiles of upper-level observations and numerical weather prediction model forecasts. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool in the form of a graphical user interface (GUI) that will allow them to plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) 50 MHz tropospheric wind profiling radar, KSC Shuttle Landing Facility 915 MHz boundary layer wind profiling radar and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Automated Meteorological Processing System (AMPS) radiosondes, and then overlay forecast wind profiles from the model point data including the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, Rapid Refresh (RAP) model and Global Forecast System (GFS) model to assess the performance of these models. The AMU developed an Excel-based tool that provides an objective method for the LWOs to compare the model-forecast upper-level winds to the KSC wind profiling radars and CCAFS AMPS observations to assess the model potential to accurately forecast changes in the upperlevel profile through the launch count. The AMU wrote Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) scripts to automatically retrieve model point data for CCAFS (XMR) from the Iowa State University Archive Data Server (http://mtarchive.qeol.iastate.edu) and the 50 MHz, 915 MHz and AMPS observations from the NASA/KSC Spaceport Weather Data Archive web site (http://trmm.ksc.nasa.gov). The AMU then developed code in Excel VBA to automatically ingest and format the observations and model point data in Excel to ready the data for generating Excel charts for the LWO's. The resulting charts allow the LWOs to independently initialize the three models 0-hour forecasts against the observations to determine which is the best performing model and then overlay the model forecasts on time-matched observations during the launch countdown to further assess the model performance and forecasts. This paper will demonstrate integration of observed and predicted atmospheric conditions into a decision support tool and demonstrate how the GUI is implemented in operations.

Consensus modeling to develop the farmers' market readiness assessment and decision instrument.

PubMed

Lee, Eunlye; Dalton, Jarrod; Ngendahimana, David; Bebo, Pat; Davis, Ashley; Remley, Daniel; Smathers, Carol; Freedman, Darcy A

2017-09-01

Nutrition-related policy, system, and environmental (PSE) interventions such as farmers' markets have been recommended as effective strategies for promoting healthy diet for chronic disease prevention. Tools are needed to assess community readiness and capacity factors influencing successful farmers' market implementation among diverse practitioners in different community contexts. We describe a multiphase consensus modeling approach used to develop a diagnostic tool for assessing readiness and capacity to implement farmers' market interventions among public health and community nutrition practitioners working with low-income populations in diverse contexts. Modeling methods included the following: phase 1, qualitative study with community stakeholders to explore facilitators and barriers influencing successful implementation of farmers' market interventions in low-income communities; phase 2, development of indicators based on operationalization of qualitative findings; phase 3, assessment of relevance and importance of indicators and themes through consensus conference with expert panel; phase 4, refinement of indicators based on consensus conference; and phase 5, pilot test of the assessment tool. Findings illuminate a range of implementation factors influencing farmers' market PSE interventions and offer guidance for tailoring intervention delivery based on levels of community, practitioner, and organizational readiness and capacity.

Aerothermal modeling program, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mongia, H. C.; Patankar, S. V.; Murthy, S. N. B.; Sullivan, J. P.; Samuelsen, G. S.

1985-01-01

The main objectives of the Aerothermal Modeling Program, Phase 2 are: to develop an improved numerical scheme for incorporation in a 3-D combustor flow model; to conduct a benchmark quality experiment to study the interaction of a primary jet with a confined swirling crossflow and to assess current and advanced turbulence and scalar transport models; and to conduct experimental evaluation of the air swirler interaction with fuel injectors, assessments of current two-phase models, and verification the improved spray evaporation/dispersion models.

Cost-Effectiveness of HBV and HCV Screening Strategies – A Systematic Review of Existing Modelling Techniques

PubMed Central

Geue, Claudia; Wu, Olivia; Xin, Yiqiao; Heggie, Robert; Hutchinson, Sharon; Martin, Natasha K.; Fenwick, Elisabeth; Goldberg, David

2015-01-01

Introduction Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of screening for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) are generally heterogeneous in terms of risk groups, settings, screening intervention, outcomes and the economic modelling framework. It is therefore difficult to compare cost-effectiveness results between studies. This systematic review aims to summarise and critically assess existing economic models for HBV and HCV in order to identify the main methodological differences in modelling approaches. Methods A structured search strategy was developed and a systematic review carried out. A critical assessment of the decision-analytic models was carried out according to the guidelines and framework developed for assessment of decision-analytic models in Health Technology Assessment of health care interventions. Results The overall approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies was found to be broadly consistent for HBV and HCV. However, modelling parameters and related structure differed between models, producing different results. More recent publications performed better against a performance matrix, evaluating model components and methodology. Conclusion When assessing screening strategies for HBV and HCV infection, the focus should be on more recent studies, which applied the latest treatment regimes, test methods and had better and more complete data on which to base their models. In addition to parameter selection and associated assumptions, careful consideration of dynamic versus static modelling is recommended. Future research may want to focus on these methodological issues. In addition, the ability to evaluate screening strategies for multiple infectious diseases, (HCV and HIV at the same time) might prove important for decision makers. PMID:26689908

Notional Scoring for Technical Review Weighting As Applied to Simulation Credibility Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hale, Joseph Peter; Hartway, Bobby; Thomas, Danny

2008-01-01

NASA's Modeling and Simulation Standard requires a credibility assessment for critical engineering data produced by models and simulations. Credibility assessment is thus a "qualifyingfactor" in reporting results from simulation-based analysis. The degree to which assessors should be independent of the simulation developers, users and decision makers is a recurring question. This paper provides alternative "weighting algorithms" for calculating the value-added for independence of the levels of technical review defined for the NASA Modeling and Simulation Standard.

Towards a Credibility Assessment of Models and Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blattnig, Steve R.; Green, Lawrence L.; Luckring, James M.; Morrison, Joseph H.; Tripathi, Ram K.; Zang, Thomas A.

2008-01-01

A scale is presented to evaluate the rigor of modeling and simulation (M&S) practices for the purpose of supporting a credibility assessment of the M&S results. The scale distinguishes required and achieved levels of rigor for a set of M&S elements that contribute to credibility including both technical and process measures. The work has its origins in an interest within NASA to include a Credibility Assessment Scale in development of a NASA standard for models and simulations.

A multi-scale metrics approach to forest fragmentation for Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Eunyoung, E-mail: eykim@kei.re.kr; Song, Wonkyong, E-mail: wksong79@gmail.com; Lee, Dongkun, E-mail: dklee7@snu.ac.kr

Forests are becoming severely fragmented as a result of land development. South Korea has responded to changing community concerns about environmental issues. The nation has developed and is extending a broad range of tools for use in environmental management. Although legally mandated environmental compliance requirements in South Korea have been implemented to predict and evaluate the impacts of land-development projects, these legal instruments are often insufficient to assess the subsequent impact of development on the surrounding forests. It is especially difficult to examine impacts on multiple (e.g., regional and local) scales in detail. Forest configuration and size, including forest fragmentationmore » by land development, are considered on a regional scale. Moreover, forest structure and composition, including biodiversity, are considered on a local scale in the Environmental Impact Assessment process. Recently, the government amended the Environmental Impact Assessment Act, including the SEA, EIA, and small-scale EIA, to require an integrated approach. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to establish an impact assessment system that minimizes the impacts of land development using an approach that is integrated across multiple scales. This study focused on forest fragmentation due to residential development and road construction sites in selected Congestion Restraint Zones (CRZs) in the Greater Seoul Area of South Korea. Based on a review of multiple-scale impacts, this paper integrates models that assess the impacts of land development on forest ecosystems. The applicability of the integrated model for assessing impacts on forest ecosystems through the SEIA process is considered. On a regional scale, it is possible to evaluate the location and size of a land-development project by considering aspects of forest fragmentation, such as the stability of the forest structure and the degree of fragmentation. On a local scale, land-development projects should consider the distances at which impacts occur in the vicinity of the forest ecosystem, and these considerations should include the impacts on forest vegetation and bird species. Impacts can be mitigated by considering the distances at which these influences occur. In particular, this paper presents an integrated environmental impact assessment system to be applied in the SEIA process. The integrated assessment system permits the assessment of the cumulative impacts of land development on multiple scales. -- Highlights: • The model is to assess the impact of forest fragmentation across multiple scales. • The paper suggests the type of forest fragmentation on a regional scale. • The type can be used to evaluate the location and size of a land development. • The paper shows the influence distance of land development on a local scale. • The distance can be used to mitigate the impact at an EIA process.« less

What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Winsemius, Hessel

2015-04-01

In recent years, several global scale flood risk models have become available. Within the scientific community these have been, and are being, used to assess and map the current levels of risk faced by countries and societies. Increasingly, they are also being used to assess how that level of risk may change in the future, under scenarios of climate change and/or socioeconomic development. More and more, these 'quick and not so dirty' methods are also being used in practice, for a large range of uses and applications, and by an increasing range of practitioners and decision makers. For example, assessments can be used by: International Financing Institutes for prioritising investments in the most promising natural disaster risk reduction measures and strategies; intra-national institutes in the monitoring of progress on risk reduction activities; the (re-)insurance industry in assessing their risk portfolios and potential changes in those portfolios under climate change; by multinational companies in assessing risks to their regional investments and supply chains; and by international aid organisations for improved resource planning. However, global scale flood risk models clearly have their limits, and therefore both modellers and users need to critically address the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. This contribution is intended to start a dialogue between model developers, users, and decision makers to better answer this question. We will provide a number of examples of how the GLOFRIS global flood risk model has recently been used in several practical applications, and share both the positive and negative insights gained through these experiences. We wish to discuss similar experiences with other groups of modelers, users, and decision-makers, in order to better understand and harness the potential of this new generation of models, understand the differences in model approaches followed and their impacts on applicability, and develop clarity on their limits and potential misuses.

Predictive models to assess risk of type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity: machine-learning algorithms and validation using national health data from Kuwait—a cohort study

PubMed Central

Farran, Bassam; Channanath, Arshad Mohamed; Behbehani, Kazem; Thanaraj, Thangavel Alphonse

2013-01-01

Objective We build classification models and risk assessment tools for diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity using machine-learning algorithms on data from Kuwait. We model the increased proneness in diabetic patients to develop hypertension and vice versa. We ascertain the importance of ethnicity (and natives vs expatriate migrants) and of using regional data in risk assessment. Design Retrospective cohort study. Four machine-learning techniques were used: logistic regression, k-nearest neighbours (k-NN), multifactor dimensionality reduction and support vector machines. The study uses fivefold cross validation to obtain generalisation accuracies and errors. Setting Kuwait Health Network (KHN) that integrates data from primary health centres and hospitals in Kuwait. Participants 270 172 hospital visitors (of which, 89 858 are diabetic, 58 745 hypertensive and 30 522 comorbid) comprising Kuwaiti natives, Asian and Arab expatriates. Outcome measures Incident type 2 diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity. Results Classification accuracies of >85% (for diabetes) and >90% (for hypertension) are achieved using only simple non-laboratory-based parameters. Risk assessment tools based on k-NN classification models are able to assign ‘high’ risk to 75% of diabetic patients and to 94% of hypertensive patients. Only 5% of diabetic patients are seen assigned ‘low’ risk. Asian-specific models and assessments perform even better. Pathological conditions of diabetes in the general population or in hypertensive population and those of hypertension are modelled. Two-stage aggregate classification models and risk assessment tools, built combining both the component models on diabetes (or on hypertension), perform better than individual models. Conclusions Data on diabetes, hypertension and comorbidity from the cosmopolitan State of Kuwait are available for the first time. This enabled us to apply four different case–control models to assess risks. These tools aid in the preliminary non-intrusive assessment of the population. Ethnicity is seen significant to the predictive models. Risk assessments need to be developed using regional data as we demonstrate the applicability of the American Diabetes Association online calculator on data from Kuwait. PMID:23676796

Development and validation of a risk assessment tool for gastric cancer in a general Japanese population.

PubMed

Iida, Masahiro; Ikeda, Fumie; Hata, Jun; Hirakawa, Yoichiro; Ohara, Tomoyuki; Mukai, Naoko; Yoshida, Daigo; Yonemoto, Koji; Esaki, Motohiro; Kitazono, Takanari; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Ninomiya, Toshiharu

2018-05-01

There have been very few reports of risk score models for the development of gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk assessment tool for discerning future gastric cancer risk in Japanese. A total of 2444 subjects aged 40 years or over were followed up for 14 years from 1988 (derivation cohort), and 3204 subjects of the same age group were followed up for 5 years from 2002 (validation cohort). The weighting (risk score) of each risk factor for predicting future gastric cancer in the risk assessment tool was determined based on the coefficients of a Cox proportional hazards model in the derivation cohort. The goodness of fit of the established risk assessment tool was assessed using the c-statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test in the validation cohort. During the follow-up, gastric cancer developed in 90 subjects in the derivation cohort and 35 subjects in the validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, the risk prediction model for gastric cancer was established using significant risk factors: age, sex, the combination of Helicobacter pylori antibody and pepsinogen status, hemoglobin A1c level, and smoking status. The incidence of gastric cancer increased significantly as the sum of risk scores increased (P trend < 0.001). The risk assessment tool was validated internally and showed good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.76) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.43) in the validation cohort. We developed a risk assessment tool for gastric cancer that provides a useful guide for stratifying an individual's risk of future gastric cancer.

Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

2018-01-01

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

HIGH-RESOLUTION SPATIAL MODELING OF DAILY WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR A CATCHMENT IN THE OREGON CASCADE MOUNTAINS, UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

High-quality, daily meteorological data at high spatial resolution are essential for a variety of hydrologic and ecological modeling applications that support environmental risk assessments and decision making. This paper describes the development, application, and assessment of ...

COMPUTATIONAL TOXICOLOGY: AN IN SILLICO DOSIMETRY MODEL FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF AIR POLLUTANTS

EPA Science Inventory

To accurately assess the threat to human health presented by airborne contaminants, it is necessary to know the deposition patterns of particulate matter (PM) within the respiratory system. To provide a foundation for computational toxicology, we have developed an in silico model...

Predictive Modeling of Polymer Mechanical Behavior Coupled to Chemical Change/ Technique Development for Measuring Polymer Physical Aging.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kropka, Jamie Michael; Stavig, Mark E.; Arechederra, Gabe Kenneth

Develop an understanding of the evolution of glassy polymer mechanical response during aging and the mechanisms associated with that evolution. That understanding will be used to develop constitutive models to assess the impact of stress evolution in encapsulants on NW designs.

Specialized data analysis of SSME and advanced propulsion system vibration measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffin, Thomas; Swanson, Wayne L.; Jong, Yen-Yi

1993-01-01

The basic objectives of this contract were to perform detailed analysis and evaluation of dynamic data obtained during Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) test and flight operations, including analytical/statistical assessment of component dynamic performance, and to continue the development and implementation of analytical/statistical models to effectively define nominal component dynamic characteristics, detect anomalous behavior, and assess machinery operational conditions. This study was to provide timely assessment of engine component operational status, identify probable causes of malfunction, and define feasible engineering solutions. The work was performed under three broad tasks: (1) Analysis, Evaluation, and Documentation of SSME Dynamic Test Results; (2) Data Base and Analytical Model Development and Application; and (3) Development and Application of Vibration Signature Analysis Techniques.

Space Transportation Operations: Assessment of Methodologies and Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joglekar, Prafulla

2001-01-01

The systems design process for future space transportation involves understanding multiple variables and their effect on lifecycle metrics. Variables such as technology readiness or potential environmental impact are qualitative, while variables such as reliability, operations costs or flight rates are quantitative. In deciding what new design concepts to fund, NASA needs a methodology that would assess the sum total of all relevant qualitative and quantitative lifecycle metrics resulting from each proposed concept. The objective of this research was to review the state of operations assessment methodologies and models used to evaluate proposed space transportation systems and to develop recommendations for improving them. It was found that, compared to the models available from other sources, the operations assessment methodology recently developed at Kennedy Space Center has the potential to produce a decision support tool that will serve as the industry standard. Towards that goal, a number of areas of improvement in the Kennedy Space Center's methodology are identified.

Space Transportation Operations: Assessment of Methodologies and Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joglekar, Prafulla

2002-01-01

The systems design process for future space transportation involves understanding multiple variables and their effect on lifecycle metrics. Variables such as technology readiness or potential environmental impact are qualitative, while variables such as reliability, operations costs or flight rates are quantitative. In deciding what new design concepts to fund, NASA needs a methodology that would assess the sum total of all relevant qualitative and quantitative lifecycle metrics resulting from each proposed concept. The objective of this research was to review the state of operations assessment methodologies and models used to evaluate proposed space transportation systems and to develop recommendations for improving them. It was found that, compared to the models available from other sources, the operations assessment methodology recently developed at Kennedy Space Center has the potential to produce a decision support tool that will serve as the industry standard. Towards that goal, a number of areas of improvement in the Kennedy Space Center's methodology are identified.

An Iterative Needs Assessment/Evaluation Model for a Japanese University English-Language Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Kathleen A.

2009-01-01

The focus of this study is the development and implementation of the Iterative Needs Assessment/Evaluation Model for use as part of an English curriculum reform project at a four-year university in Japan. Three questions were addressed in this study: (a) what model components were necessary for use in a Japanese university setting; (b) what survey…

A Zebrafish Heart Failure Model for Assessing Therapeutic Agents.

PubMed

Zhu, Xiao-Yu; Wu, Si-Qi; Guo, Sheng-Ya; Yang, Hua; Xia, Bo; Li, Ping; Li, Chun-Qi

2018-03-20

Heart failure is a leading cause of death and the development of effective and safe therapeutic agents for heart failure has been proven challenging. In this study, taking advantage of larval zebrafish, we developed a zebrafish heart failure model for drug screening and efficacy assessment. Zebrafish at 2 dpf (days postfertilization) were treated with verapamil at a concentration of 200 μM for 30 min, which were determined as optimum conditions for model development. Tested drugs were administered into zebrafish either by direct soaking or circulation microinjection. After treatment, zebrafish were randomly selected and subjected to either visual observation and image acquisition or record videos under a Zebralab Blood Flow System. The therapeutic effects of drugs on zebrafish heart failure were quantified by calculating the efficiency of heart dilatation, venous congestion, cardiac output, and blood flow dynamics. All 8 human heart failure therapeutic drugs (LCZ696, digoxin, irbesartan, metoprolol, qiliqiangxin capsule, enalapril, shenmai injection, and hydrochlorothiazide) showed significant preventive and therapeutic effects on zebrafish heart failure (p < 0.05, p < 0.01, and p < 0.001) in the zebrafish model. The larval zebrafish heart failure model developed and validated in this study could be used for in vivo heart failure studies and for rapid screening and efficacy assessment of preventive and therapeutic drugs.

Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

2007-01-01

Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

DEVELOPMENT OF MULTI-PHASE AND MULTI-COMPONENT FLOW MODEL WITH REACTION IN POROUS MEDIA FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ON SOIL CONTAMINATION DUE TO MINERAL OIL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, Yasuhide; Nishiwaki, Junko; Hara, Junko; Kawabe, Yoshishige; Sugai, Yuichi; Komai, Takeshi

In late years, soil contamination due to mineral oil in vacant lots of oil factory and oil field has become obvious. Measure for soil contamina tion and risk assessment are neces sary for sustainable development of industrial activity. Especially, in addition to contaminated sites, various exposure paths for human body such as well water, soil and farm crop are supposed. So it is very important to comprehend the transport phenomena of contaminated material under the environments of soil and ground water. In this study, mineral oil as c ontaminated material consisting of mu lti-component such as aliphatic and aromatic series was modeled. Then numerical mode l for transport phenomena in surface soil and aquifer was constructed. On the basis of modeling for mineral oil, our numerical model consists of three-phase (oil, water and gas) forty three-component. This numerical model becomes base program for risk assessment system on soil contamination due to mineral oil. Using this numerical model, we carried out some numerical simulation for a laboratory-scale experiment on oil-water multi-phase flow. Relative permeability that dominate flow behavior in multi-phase condition was formulated and the validity of the numerical model developed in this study was considered.

Rational analyses of information foraging on the web.

PubMed

Pirolli, Peter

2005-05-06

This article describes rational analyses and cognitive models of Web users developed within information foraging theory. This is done by following the rational analysis methodology of (a) characterizing the problems posed by the environment, (b) developing rational analyses of behavioral solutions to those problems, and (c) developing cognitive models that approach the realization of those solutions. Navigation choice is modeled as a random utility model that uses spreading activation mechanisms that link proximal cues (information scent) that occur in Web browsers to internal user goals. Web-site leaving is modeled as an ongoing assessment by the Web user of the expected benefits of continuing at a Web site as opposed to going elsewhere. These cost-benefit assessments are also based on spreading activation models of information scent. Evaluations include a computational model of Web user behavior called Scent-Based Navigation and Information Foraging in the ACT Architecture, and the Law of Surfing, which characterizes the empirical distribution of the length of paths of visitors at a Web site. 2005 Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.

Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mog, Robert A.

1997-01-01

Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

Assessment of global flood exposures - developing an appropriate approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millinship, Ian; Booth, Naomi

2015-04-01

Increasingly complex probabilistic catastrophe models have become the standard for quantitative flood risk assessments by re/insurance companies. On the one hand, probabilistic modelling of this nature is extremely useful; a large range of risk metrics can be output. However, they can be time consuming and computationally expensive to develop and run. Levels of uncertainty are persistently high despite, or perhaps because of, attempts to increase resolution and complexity. A cycle of dependency between modelling companies and re/insurers has developed whereby available models are purchased, models run, and both portfolio and model data 'improved' every year. This can lead to potential exposures in perils and territories that are not currently modelled being largely overlooked by companies, who may then face substantial and unexpected losses when large events occur in these areas. We present here an approach to assessing global flood exposures which reduces the scale and complexity of approach used and begins with the identification of hotspots where there is a significant exposure to flood risk. The method comprises four stages: i) compile consistent exposure information, ii) to apply reinsurance terms and conditions to calculate values exposed, iii) to assess the potential hazard using a global set of flood hazard maps, and iv) to identify potential risk 'hotspots' which include considerations of spatially and/or temporally clustered historical events, and local flood defences. This global exposure assessment is designed as a scoping exercise, and reveals areas or cities where the potential for accumulated loss is of significant interest to a reinsurance company, and for which there is no existing catastrophe model. These regions are then candidates for the development of deterministic scenarios, or probabilistic models. The key advantages of this approach will be discussed. These include simplicity and ability of business leaders to understand results, as well as ease and speed of analysis and the advantages this can offer in terms of monitoring changing exposures over time. Significantly, in many areas of the world, this increase in exposure is likely to have more of an impact on increasing catastrophe losses than potential anthropogenically driven changes in weather extremes.

Flipping the classroom to teach systematic reviews: the development of a continuing education course for librarians*

PubMed Central

Conte, Marisa L.; MacEachern, Mark P.; Mani, Nandita S.; Townsend, Whitney A.; Smith, Judith E.; Masters, Chase; Kelley, Caitlin

2015-01-01

Objective: The researchers used the flipped classroom model to develop and conduct a systematic review course for librarians. Setting: The research took place at an academic health sciences library. Method: A team of informationists developed and conducted a pilot course. Assessment informed changes to both course components; a second course addressed gaps in the pilot. Main Results: Both the pilot and subsequent course received positive reviews. Changes based on assessment data will inform future iterations. Conclusion: The flipped classroom model can be successful in developing and implementing a course that is well rated by students. PMID:25918484

Area 2: Inexpensive Monitoring and Uncertainty Assessment of CO2 Plume Migration using Injection Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Srinivasan, Sanjay

2014-09-30

In-depth understanding of the long-term fate of CO₂ in the subsurface requires study and analysis of the reservoir formation, the overlaying caprock formation, and adjacent faults. Because there is significant uncertainty in predicting the location and extent of geologic heterogeneity that can impact the future migration of CO₂ in the subsurface, there is a need to develop algorithms that can reliably quantify this uncertainty in plume migration. This project is focused on the development of a model selection algorithm that refines an initial suite of subsurface models representing the prior uncertainty to create a posterior set of subsurface models thatmore » reflect injection performance consistent with that observed. Such posterior models can be used to represent uncertainty in the future migration of the CO₂ plume. Because only injection data is required, the method provides a very inexpensive method to map the migration of the plume and the associated uncertainty in migration paths. The model selection method developed as part of this project mainly consists of assessing the connectivity/dynamic characteristics of a large prior ensemble of models, grouping the models on the basis of their expected dynamic response, selecting the subgroup of models that most closely yield dynamic response closest to the observed dynamic data, and finally quantifying the uncertainty in plume migration using the selected subset of models. The main accomplishment of the project is the development of a software module within the SGEMS earth modeling software package that implements the model selection methodology. This software module was subsequently applied to analyze CO₂ plume migration in two field projects – the In Salah CO₂ Injection project in Algeria and CO₂ injection into the Utsira formation in Norway. These applications of the software revealed that the proxies developed in this project for quickly assessing the dynamic characteristics of the reservoir were highly efficient and yielded accurate grouping of reservoir models. The plume migration paths probabilistically assessed by the method were confirmed by field observations and auxiliary data. The report also documents the application of the software to answer practical questions such as the optimum location of monitoring wells to reliably assess the migration of CO₂ plume, the effect of CO₂-rock interactions on plume migration and the ability to detect the plume under those conditions and the effect of a slow, unresolved leak on the predictions of plume migration.« less

An algal model for predicting attainment of tiered biological criteria of Maine's streams and rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Danielson, Thomas J.; Loftin, Cyndy; Tsomides, Leonidas; DiFranco, Jeanne L.; Connors, Beth; Courtemanch, David L.; Drummond, Francis; Davies, Susan

2012-01-01

State water-quality professionals developing new biological assessment methods often have difficulty relating assessment results to narrative criteria in water-quality standards. An alternative to selecting index thresholds arbitrarily is to include the Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) in the development of the assessment method. The BCG describes tiers of biological community condition to help identify and communicate the position of a water body along a gradient of water quality ranging from natural to degraded. Although originally developed for fish and macroinvertebrate communities of streams and rivers, the BCG is easily adapted to other habitats and taxonomic groups. We developed a discriminant analysis model with stream algal data to predict attainment of tiered aquatic-life uses in Maine's water-quality standards. We modified the BCG framework for Maine stream algae, related the BCG tiers to Maine's tiered aquatic-life uses, and identified appropriate algal metrics for describing BCG tiers. Using a modified Delphi method, 5 aquatic biologists independently evaluated algal community metrics for 230 samples from streams and rivers across the state and assigned a BCG tier (1–6) and Maine water quality class (AA/A, B, C, nonattainment of any class) to each sample. We used minimally disturbed reference sites to approximate natural conditions (Tier 1). Biologist class assignments were unanimous for 53% of samples, and 42% of samples differed by 1 class. The biologists debated and developed consensus class assignments. A linear discriminant model built to replicate a priori class assignments correctly classified 95% of 150 samples in the model training set and 91% of 80 samples in the model validation set. Locally derived metrics based on BCG taxon tolerance groupings (e.g., sensitive, intermediate, tolerant) were more effective than were metrics developed in other regions. Adding the algal discriminant model to Maine's existing macroinvertebrate discriminant model will broaden detection of biological impairment and further diagnose sources of impairment. The algal discriminant model is specific to Maine, but our approach of explicitly tying an assessment tool to tiered aquatic-life goals is widely transferrable to other regions, taxonomic groups, and waterbody types.

From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

2010-12-01

Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing the impacts of multiple GCM ensemble members. The implications of various approaches to dealing with uncertainty, such as these, must be carefully communicated to decision makers in order for projected climate impacts to be viewed as credible and used appropriately.

Towards a meaningful assessment of marine ecological impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA).

PubMed

Woods, John S; Veltman, Karin; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Verones, Francesca; Hertwich, Edgar G

2016-01-01

Human demands on marine resources and space are currently unprecedented and concerns are rising over observed declines in marine biodiversity. A quantitative understanding of the impact of industrial activities on the marine environment is thus essential. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a widely applied method for quantifying the environmental impact of products and processes. LCA was originally developed to assess the impacts of land-based industries on mainly terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. As such, impact indicators for major drivers of marine biodiversity loss are currently lacking. We review quantitative approaches for cause-effect assessment of seven major drivers of marine biodiversity loss: climate change, ocean acidification, eutrophication-induced hypoxia, seabed damage, overexploitation of biotic resources, invasive species and marine plastic debris. Our review shows that impact indicators can be developed for all identified drivers, albeit at different levels of coverage of cause-effect pathways and variable levels of uncertainty and spatial coverage. Modeling approaches to predict the spatial distribution and intensity of human-driven interventions in the marine environment are relatively well-established and can be employed to develop spatially-explicit LCA fate factors. Modeling approaches to quantify the effects of these interventions on marine biodiversity are less well-developed. We highlight specific research challenges to facilitate a coherent incorporation of marine biodiversity loss in LCA, thereby making LCA a more comprehensive and robust environmental impact assessment tool. Research challenges of particular importance include i) incorporation of the non-linear behavior of global circulation models (GCMs) within an LCA framework and ii) improving spatial differentiation, especially the representation of coastal regions in GCMs and ocean-carbon cycle models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The development of instruments to measure the work disability assessment behaviour of insurance physicians

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Variation in assessments is a universal given, and work disability assessments by insurance physicians are no exception. Little is known about the considerations and views of insurance physicians that may partly explain such variation. On the basis of the Attitude - Social norm - self Efficacy (ASE) model, we have developed measurement instruments for assessment behaviour and its determinants. Methods Based on theory and interviews with insurance physicians the questionnaire included blocks of items concerning background variables, intentions, attitudes, social norms, self-efficacy, knowledge, barriers and behaviour of the insurance physicians in relation to work disability assessment issues. The responses of 231 insurance physicians were suitable for further analysis. Factor analysis and reliability analysis were used to form scale variables and homogeneity analysis was used to form dimension variables. Thus, we included 169 of the 177 original items. Results Factor analysis and reliability analysis yielded 29 scales with sufficient reliability. Homogeneity analysis yielded 19 dimensions. Scales and dimensions fitted with the concepts of the ASE model. We slightly modified the ASE model by dividing behaviour into two blocks: behaviour that reflects the assessment process and behaviour that reflects assessment behaviour. The picture that emerged from the descriptive results was of a group of physicians who were motivated in their job and positive about the Dutch social security system in general. However, only half of them had a positive opinion about the Dutch Work and Income (Capacity for Work) Act (WIA). They also reported serious barriers, the most common of which was work pressure. Finally, 73% of the insurance physicians described the majority of their cases as 'difficult'. Conclusions The scales and dimensions developed appear to be valid and offer a promising basis for future research. The results suggest that the underlying ASE model, in modified form, is suitable for describing the assessment behaviour of insurance physicians and the determinants of this behaviour. The next step in this line of research should be to validate the model using structural equation modelling. Finally, the predictive value should be tested in relation to outcome measurements of work disability assessments. PMID:21199570

Development and Validation of Two Influenza Assessments: Exploring the Impact of Knowledge and Social Environment on Health Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Romine, William

2011-01-01

Assessments of knowledge and perceptions about influenza were developed for high school students, and used to determine how knowledge, perceptions, and demographic variables relate to students taking precautions and their odds of getting sick. Assessments were piloted with 205 students and validated using the Rasch model. Data were then collected…

A Bridge Too Far or a Bridge to the Future? A Case Study in Online Assessment at Charles Sturt University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buchan, Janet F.; Swann, Michael

2007-01-01

The in house development of an online assessment tool, OASIS, has provided a unique opportunity to research the use of online assessment in teaching and learning across the university. The developing relationship between IT staff, educational designers and academics serves as a model for integrated and evolving management systems which demonstrate…

The Development of a Conceptual Framework and Tools to Assess Undergraduates' Principled Use of Models in Cellular Biology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richmond, Gail; Merritt, Brett; Urban-Lurain, Mark; Parker, Joyce

2010-01-01

Recent science education reform has been marked by a shift away from a focus on facts toward deep, rich, conceptual understanding. This requires assessment that also focuses on conceptual understanding rather than recall of facts. This study outlines our development of a new assessment framework and tool--a taxonomy--which, unlike existing…

Using Astin's I-E-O Model to Explain the Development of a Culture of Assessment: A Case Study of a Four-Year University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Mary Genusa

2013-01-01

The researcher sought to describe the culture of assessment for post-secondary program improvement that had resulted from the new requirements for reaffirmation through regional accreditation. The literature was deficient in a conceptual framework and surveys to measure a culture of assessment. The researcher developed a conceptual framework…

Classroom Research: Assessment of Student Understanding of Sampling Distributions of Means and the Central Limit Theorem in Post-Calculus Probability and Statistics Classes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lunsford, M. Leigh; Rowell, Ginger Holmes; Goodson-Espy, Tracy

2006-01-01

We applied a classroom research model to investigate student understanding of sampling distributions of sample means and the Central Limit Theorem in post-calculus introductory probability and statistics courses. Using a quantitative assessment tool developed by previous researchers and a qualitative assessment tool developed by the authors, we…

Using Continuous Improvement to Enhance an Online Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aggarwal, Anil K.; Lynn, Susan A.

2012-01-01

Assessment is becoming important from many different perspectives. Universities are planning, developing, and testing various assessment models to satisfy stakeholders. Many accrediting agencies are also requiring assessment plans and their implementation from universities for reaccreditation. This article describes how assessment was used to…

Systematic Assessment for University Sexuality Programming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Westefeld, John S.; Winkelpleck, Judy M.

1982-01-01

Suggests systematic empirical assessment is needed to plan university sexuality programing. Proposes the traditional approach of asking about students' attitudes, knowledge, and behavior is useful for developing specific programing content. Presents an assessment model emphasizing assessment of students' desires for sexuality programing in terms…

Process Correlation Analysis Model for Process Improvement Identification

PubMed Central

Park, Sooyong

2014-01-01

Software process improvement aims at improving the development process of software systems. It is initiated by process assessment identifying strengths and weaknesses and based on the findings, improvement plans are developed. In general, a process reference model (e.g., CMMI) is used throughout the process of software process improvement as the base. CMMI defines a set of process areas involved in software development and what to be carried out in process areas in terms of goals and practices. Process areas and their elements (goals and practices) are often correlated due to the iterative nature of software development process. However, in the current practice, correlations of process elements are often overlooked in the development of an improvement plan, which diminishes the efficiency of the plan. This is mainly attributed to significant efforts and the lack of required expertise. In this paper, we present a process correlation analysis model that helps identify correlations of process elements from the results of process assessment. This model is defined based on CMMI and empirical data of improvement practices. We evaluate the model using industrial data. PMID:24977170

Process correlation analysis model for process improvement identification.

PubMed

Choi, Su-jin; Kim, Dae-Kyoo; Park, Sooyong

2014-01-01

Software process improvement aims at improving the development process of software systems. It is initiated by process assessment identifying strengths and weaknesses and based on the findings, improvement plans are developed. In general, a process reference model (e.g., CMMI) is used throughout the process of software process improvement as the base. CMMI defines a set of process areas involved in software development and what to be carried out in process areas in terms of goals and practices. Process areas and their elements (goals and practices) are often correlated due to the iterative nature of software development process. However, in the current practice, correlations of process elements are often overlooked in the development of an improvement plan, which diminishes the efficiency of the plan. This is mainly attributed to significant efforts and the lack of required expertise. In this paper, we present a process correlation analysis model that helps identify correlations of process elements from the results of process assessment. This model is defined based on CMMI and empirical data of improvement practices. We evaluate the model using industrial data.

Demonstration of reduced-order urban scale building energy models

DOE PAGES

Heidarinejad, Mohammad; Mattise, Nicholas; Dahlhausen, Matthew; ...

2017-09-08

The aim of this study is to demonstrate a developed framework to rapidly create urban scale reduced-order building energy models using a systematic summary of the simplifications required for the representation of building exterior and thermal zones. These urban scale reduced-order models rely on the contribution of influential variables to the internal, external, and system thermal loads. OpenStudio Application Programming Interface (API) serves as a tool to automate the process of model creation and demonstrate the developed framework. The results of this study show that the accuracy of the developed reduced-order building energy models varies only up to 10% withmore » the selection of different thermal zones. In addition, to assess complexity of the developed reduced-order building energy models, this study develops a novel framework to quantify complexity of the building energy models. Consequently, this study empowers the building energy modelers to quantify their building energy model systematically in order to report the model complexity alongside the building energy model accuracy. An exhaustive analysis on four university campuses suggests that the urban neighborhood buildings lend themselves to simplified typical shapes. Specifically, building energy modelers can utilize the developed typical shapes to represent more than 80% of the U.S. buildings documented in the CBECS database. One main benefits of this developed framework is the opportunity for different models including airflow and solar radiation models to share the same exterior representation, allowing a unifying exchange data. Altogether, the results of this study have implications for a large-scale modeling of buildings in support of urban energy consumption analyses or assessment of a large number of alternative solutions in support of retrofit decision-making in the building industry.« less

Demonstration of reduced-order urban scale building energy models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heidarinejad, Mohammad; Mattise, Nicholas; Dahlhausen, Matthew

The aim of this study is to demonstrate a developed framework to rapidly create urban scale reduced-order building energy models using a systematic summary of the simplifications required for the representation of building exterior and thermal zones. These urban scale reduced-order models rely on the contribution of influential variables to the internal, external, and system thermal loads. OpenStudio Application Programming Interface (API) serves as a tool to automate the process of model creation and demonstrate the developed framework. The results of this study show that the accuracy of the developed reduced-order building energy models varies only up to 10% withmore » the selection of different thermal zones. In addition, to assess complexity of the developed reduced-order building energy models, this study develops a novel framework to quantify complexity of the building energy models. Consequently, this study empowers the building energy modelers to quantify their building energy model systematically in order to report the model complexity alongside the building energy model accuracy. An exhaustive analysis on four university campuses suggests that the urban neighborhood buildings lend themselves to simplified typical shapes. Specifically, building energy modelers can utilize the developed typical shapes to represent more than 80% of the U.S. buildings documented in the CBECS database. One main benefits of this developed framework is the opportunity for different models including airflow and solar radiation models to share the same exterior representation, allowing a unifying exchange data. Altogether, the results of this study have implications for a large-scale modeling of buildings in support of urban energy consumption analyses or assessment of a large number of alternative solutions in support of retrofit decision-making in the building industry.« less

Coupling System Dynamics and Physically-based Models for Participatory Water Management - A Methodological Framework, with Two Case Studies: Water Quality in Quebec, and Soil Salinity in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boisvert-Chouinard, J.; Halbe, J.; Baig, A. I.; Adamowski, J. F.

2014-12-01

The principles of Integrated Water Resource Management outline the importance of stakeholder participation in water management processes, but in practice, there is a lack of meaningful engagement in water planning and implementation, and participation is often limited to public consultation and education. When models are used to support water planning, stakeholders are usually not involved in their development and use, and the models commonly fail to represent important feedbacks between socio-economic and physical processes. This paper presents the development of holistic models of the Du Chêne basin in Quebec, and the Rechna Doab basin in Pakistan, that simulate socio-economic and physical processes related to, respectively, water quality management, and soil salinity management. The models each consists of two sub-components: a System Dynamics (SD) model, and a physically based model. The SD component was developed in collaboration with key stakeholders in the basins. The Du Chêne SD model was coupled with a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, while the Rechna Doab SD model was coupled with SahysMod, a soil salinity model. The coupled models were used to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of different management scenarios proposed by stakeholders. Results indicate that coupled SD - physically-based models can be used as effective tools for participatory water planning and implementation. The participatory modeling process provides a structure for meaningful stakeholder engagement, and the models themselves can be used to transparently and coherently assess and compare different management options.

A Framework for Designing and Developing Multimedia-Based Performance Assessment in Vocational Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Klerk, Sebastiaan; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Eggen, Theo J. H. M.

2018-01-01

The development of any assessment should be an iterative and careful process. Ideally, this process is guided by a well-defined framework (see for example Downing in: Downing and Haladyna (eds) "Handbook of test development," Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Mahwah, 2006; Mislevy et al. in "On the roles of task model variables in…

Impacts of Participatory Modeling on Climate Change-related Water Management Impacts in Sonora, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halvorsen, K. E.; Kossak, D. J.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Robles-Morua, A.; Gamez Molina, V.; Dana, K.; Mirchi, A.

2013-12-01

Climate change-related impacts on water resources are expected to be particularly severe in the arid developing world. As a result, we conducted a series of participatory modeling workshops on hydrologic and water resources systems modeling in the face of climate change in Sonora, Mexico. Pre-surveys were administered to participants on Day 1 of a series of four workshops spaced out over three months in 2013. Post-surveys repeated many pre-survey questions and included questions assessing the quality of the workshops and models. We report on significant changes in participant perceptions of water resource models and problems and their assessment of the workshops. These findings will be of great value to future participatory modeling efforts, particularly within the developing world.

Targeted Feedback in the Milestones Era: Utilization of the Ask-Tell-Ask Feedback Model to Promote Reflection and Self-Assessment.

PubMed

French, Judith C; Colbert, Colleen Y; Pien, Lily C; Dannefer, Elaine F; Taylor, Christine A

2015-01-01

The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education's Milestones Project focuses trainee education on the formation of valued behaviors and skills believed to be necessary for trainees to become independent practitioners. The development and refinement of behaviors and skills outlined within the milestones will require learners to monitor, reflect, and assess their own performance over time. External feedback provides an opportunity for learners to recalibrate their self-assessments, thereby enabling them to develop better self-monitoring and self-assessment skills. Yet, feedback to trainees is frequently generic, such as "great job," "nice work," or "you need to read more." In this article, we describe a feedback model that faculty can use to provide specific feedback, while increasing accountability for learners. We offer practical examples of its use in a variety of settings in the milestone era. The Ask-Tell-Ask (ATA) patient communication skills strategy, which was adapted for use as a trainee feedback model 10 years ago at our institution, is a learner-centered approach for reinforcing and modifying behaviors. The model is efficient, promotes learner accountability, and helps trainees develop reflection and self-assessment skills. A feedback agreement further enhances ATA by establishing a shared understanding of goals for the educational encounter. The ATA feedback model, combined with a feedback agreement, encourages learners to self-identify strengths and areas for improvement, before receiving feedback. Personal monitoring, reflection, self-assessment, and increased accountability make ATA an ideal learner-centered feedback model for the milestones era, which focuses on performance improvement over time. We believe the introduction of the ATA feedback model in surgical training programs is a step in the right direction towards meaningful programmatic culture change. Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of methods for methyl iodide emission reduction and pest control using a simulation model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Various methods have been developed to reduce atmospheric emissions from the agricultural use of highly volatile pesticides and mitigate their adverse environmental effects. The effectiveness of various methods on emissions reduction and pest control was assessed using simulation model in this study...

Theoretical Convergence in Assessment of Cognition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowden, Stephen C.

2013-01-01

In surveying the literature on assessment of cognitive abilities in adults and children, it is easy to assume that the proliferation of test batteries and terminology reflects a poverty of unifying models. However, the lack of recognition accorded good models of cognitive abilities may reflect inattention to theoretical development and injudicious…

SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SLIDE PRESENTATION)

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

MEETING IN CHICAGO: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

MEETING IN CZECH REPUBLIC: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

Dermal permeation data and models for the prioritization and screening-level exposure assessment of organic chemicals

EPA Science Inventory

High throughput screening (HTS) models are being developed and applied to prioritize chemicals for more comprehensive exposure and risk assessment. Dermal pathways are possible exposure routes to humans for thousands of chemicals found in personal care products and the indoor env...

Modelling Student Misconceptions Using Nested Logit Item Response Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yildiz, Mustafa

2017-01-01

Student misconceptions have been studied for decades from a curricular/instructional perspective and from the assessment/test level perspective. Numerous misconception assessment tools have been developed in order to measure students' misconceptions relative to the correct content. Often, these tools are used to make a variety of educational…

The Strategic Assessment Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glazner, Steve, Ed.

This book presents six papers focusing on the application of the strategic assessment model (SAM) to the management of higher education facilities. The papers are part of an ongoing effort by the Association of Higher Education Facilities Officers to provide comparative cost and staffing information and to develop a benchmarking process. The…

Development of cropland management dataset to support U.S. SWAT assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a widely used hydrologic/water quality simulation model in the U.S. Process-based models like SWAT require a great deal of data to accurately represent the natural world, including topography, landuse, soils, weather, and management. With the exception ...

An integrated approach to evaluating alternative risk prediction strategies: a case study comparing alternative approaches for preventing invasive fungal disease.

PubMed

Sadique, Z; Grieve, R; Harrison, D A; Jit, M; Allen, E; Rowan, K M

2013-12-01

This article proposes an integrated approach to the development, validation, and evaluation of new risk prediction models illustrated with the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation study, which developed risk models to identify non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive fungal disease (IFD). Our decision-analytical model compared alternative strategies for preventing IFD at up to three clinical decision time points (critical care admission, after 24 hours, and end of day 3), followed with antifungal prophylaxis for those judged "high" risk versus "no formal risk assessment." We developed prognostic models to predict the risk of IFD before critical care unit discharge, with data from 35,455 admissions to 70 UK adult, critical care units, and validated the models externally. The decision model was populated with positive predictive values and negative predictive values from the best-fitting risk models. We projected lifetime cost-effectiveness and expected value of partial perfect information for groups of parameters. The risk prediction models performed well in internal and external validation. Risk assessment and prophylaxis at the end of day 3 was the most cost-effective strategy at the 2% and 1% risk threshold. Risk assessment at each time point was the most cost-effective strategy at a 0.5% risk threshold. Expected values of partial perfect information were high for positive predictive values or negative predictive values (£11 million-£13 million) and quality-adjusted life-years (£11 million). It is cost-effective to formally assess the risk of IFD for non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients. This integrated approach to developing and evaluating risk models is useful for informing clinical practice and future research investment. © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Published by International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) All rights reserved.

Measurement of Libby Amphibole (LA) Elongated Particle Dissolution Rates and Alteration of Size/Shape Distributions in Support of Human Dosimetry Model Development and Relative Potency Determinations

EPA Science Inventory

To maximize the value of toxicological data in development of human health risk assessment models of inhaled elongated mineral particles, improvements in human dosimetry modeling are needed. In order to extend the dosimetry model of deposited fibers (Asgharian et aI., Johnson 201...

Towards a New Food System Assessment: AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Thorburn, Peter

2017-01-01

Agricultural stakeholders need more credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. In order to provide this, we must improve the rigor of agricultural modelling. Ensemble approaches can be used to address scale issues and integrated teams can overcome disciplinary silos. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (CGRA) has the goal to link agricultural systems models using common protocols and scenarios to significantly improve understanding of climate effects on crops, livestock and livelihoods across multiple scales. The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including, socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development. Through these approaches, AgMIP partners around the world are providing an evidence base for their stakeholders as they make decisions and investments.

Assessment of predictive models for chlorophyll-a concentration of a tropical lake

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background This study assesses four predictive ecological models; Fuzzy Logic (FL), Recurrent Artificial Neural Network (RANN), Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm (HEA) and multiple linear regressions (MLR) to forecast chlorophyll- a concentration using limnological data from 2001 through 2004 of unstratified shallow, oligotrophic to mesotrophic tropical Putrajaya Lake (Malaysia). Performances of the models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and Area under the Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Chlorophyll-a have been used to estimate algal biomass in aquatic ecosystem as it is common in most algae. Algal biomass indicates of the trophic status of a water body. Chlorophyll- a therefore, is an effective indicator for monitoring eutrophication which is a common problem of lakes and reservoirs all over the world. Assessments of these predictive models are necessary towards developing a reliable algorithm to estimate chlorophyll- a concentration for eutrophication management of tropical lakes. Results Same data set was used for models development and the data was divided into two sets; training and testing to avoid biasness in results. FL and RANN models were developed using parameters selected through sensitivity analysis. The selected variables were water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen and Secchi depth. Dissolved oxygen, selected through stepwise procedure, was used to develop the MLR model. HEA model used parameters selected using genetic algorithm (GA). The selected parameters were pH, Secchi depth, dissolved oxygen and nitrate nitrogen. RMSE, r, and AUC values for MLR model were (4.60, 0.5, and 0.76), FL model were (4.49, 0.6, and 0.84), RANN model were (4.28, 0.7, and 0.79) and HEA model were (4.27, 0.7, and 0.82) respectively. Performance inconsistencies between four models in terms of performance criteria in this study resulted from the methodology used in measuring the performance. RMSE is based on the level of error of prediction whereas AUC is based on binary classification task. Conclusions Overall, HEA produced the best performance in terms of RMSE, r, and AUC values. This was followed by FL, RANN, and MLR. PMID:22372859

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

DOE PAGES

Absar, Syeda Mariya; Preston, Benjamin L.

2015-05-25

The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However,more » the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impact, adaptation and vulnerability, and increasingly integrated assessment modeling, studies are conducted. Our objective for this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. Finally, in addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative subnational socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.« less

The Development of a Model of Culturally Responsive Science and Mathematics Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hernandez, Cecilia M.; Morales, Amanda R.; Shroyer, M. Gail

2013-01-01

This qualitative theoretical study was conducted in response to the current need for an inclusive and comprehensive model to guide the preparation and assessment of teacher candidates for culturally responsive teaching. The process of developing a model of culturally responsive teaching involved three steps: a comprehensive review of the…

Sharpening a District's Leadership Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Namit, Chuck

2008-01-01

To create an integrated board self-assessment and superintendent evaluation process, district leaders must develop a school leadership model by adopting a coherent governance model. At the same time, they must also develop goals at the appropriate level that ensure quality governance of a school system. In the second of a two-part series, the…

Computational modeling of the amphibian thyroid axis supported by targeted in vivo testing to advance quantitative adverse outcome pathway development

EPA Science Inventory

In vitro screening of chemicals for bioactivity together with computational modeling are beginning to replace animal toxicity testing in support of chemical risk assessment. To facilitate this transition, an amphibian thyroid axis model has been developed to describe thyroid home...

Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

1980-01-01

The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

Machine Learning Algorithms Outperform Conventional Regression Models in Predicting Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PubMed Central

Singal, Amit G.; Mukherjee, Ashin; Elmunzer, B. Joseph; Higgins, Peter DR; Lok, Anna S.; Zhu, Ji; Marrero, Jorge A; Waljee, Akbar K

2015-01-01

Background Predictive models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been limited by modest accuracy and lack of validation. Machine learning algorithms offer a novel methodology, which may improve HCC risk prognostication among patients with cirrhosis. Our study's aim was to develop and compare predictive models for HCC development among cirrhotic patients, using conventional regression analysis and machine learning algorithms. Methods We enrolled 442 patients with Child A or B cirrhosis at the University of Michigan between January 2004 and September 2006 (UM cohort) and prospectively followed them until HCC development, liver transplantation, death, or study termination. Regression analysis and machine learning algorithms were used to construct predictive models for HCC development, which were tested on an independent validation cohort from the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) Trial. Both models were also compared to the previously published HALT-C model. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and diagnostic accuracy was assessed with net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement statistics. Results After a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 41 patients developed HCC. The UM regression model had a c-statistic of 0.61 (95%CI 0.56-0.67), whereas the machine learning algorithm had a c-statistic of 0.64 (95%CI 0.60–0.69) in the validation cohort. The machine learning algorithm had significantly better diagnostic accuracy as assessed by net reclassification improvement (p<0.001) and integrated discrimination improvement (p=0.04). The HALT-C model had a c-statistic of 0.60 (95%CI 0.50-0.70) in the validation cohort and was outperformed by the machine learning algorithm (p=0.047). Conclusion Machine learning algorithms improve the accuracy of risk stratifying patients with cirrhosis and can be used to accurately identify patients at high-risk for developing HCC. PMID:24169273

Predicting Risk of Suicide Attempt Using History of Physical Illnesses From Electronic Medical Records

PubMed Central

Luo, Wei; Tran, Truyen; Berk, Michael; Venkatesh, Svetha

2016-01-01

Background Although physical illnesses, routinely documented in electronic medical records (EMR), have been found to be a contributing factor to suicides, no automated systems use this information to predict suicide risk. Objective The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of physical illnesses on suicide risk, and develop a predictive model that captures this relationship using EMR data. Methods We used history of physical illnesses (except chapter V: Mental and behavioral disorders) from EMR data over different time-periods to build a lookup table that contains the probability of suicide risk for each chapter of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes. The lookup table was then used to predict the probability of suicide risk for any new assessment. Based on the different lengths of history of physical illnesses, we developed six different models to predict suicide risk. We tested the performance of developed models to predict 90-day risk using historical data over differing time-periods ranging from 3 to 48 months. A total of 16,858 assessments from 7399 mental health patients with at least one risk assessment was used for the validation of the developed model. The performance was measured using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The best predictive results were derived (AUC=0.71) using combined data across all time-periods, which significantly outperformed the clinical baseline derived from routine risk assessment (AUC=0.56). The proposed approach thus shows potential to be incorporated in the broader risk assessment processes used by clinicians. Conclusions This study provides a novel approach to exploit the history of physical illnesses extracted from EMR (ICD-10 codes without chapter V-mental and behavioral disorders) to predict suicide risk, and this model outperforms existing clinical assessments of suicide risk. PMID:27400764

Consensus-based training and assessment model for general surgery.

PubMed

Szasz, P; Louridas, M; de Montbrun, S; Harris, K A; Grantcharov, T P

2016-05-01

Surgical education is becoming competency-based with the implementation of in-training milestones. Training guidelines should reflect these changes and determine the specific procedures for such milestone assessments. This study aimed to develop a consensus view regarding operative procedures and tasks considered appropriate for junior and senior trainees, and the procedures that can be used as technical milestone assessments for trainee progression in general surgery. A Delphi process was followed where questionnaires were distributed to all 17 Canadian general surgery programme directors. Items were ranked on a 5-point Likert scale, with consensus defined as Cronbach's α of at least 0·70. Items rated 4 or above on the 5-point Likert scale by 80 per cent of the programme directors were included in the models. Two Delphi rounds were completed, with 14 programme directors taking part in round one and 11 in round two. The overall consensus was high (Cronbach's α = 0·98). The training model included 101 unique procedures and tasks, 24 specific to junior trainees, 68 specific to senior trainees, and nine appropriate to all. The assessment model included four procedures. A system of operative procedures and tasks for junior- and senior-level trainees has been developed along with an assessment model for trainee progression. These can be used as milestones in competency-based assessments. © 2016 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

System Maturity and Architecture Assessment Methods, Processes, and Tools

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-02

Deshmukh , and M. Sarfaraz. Development of Systems Engineering Maturity Models and Management Tools. Systems Engineering Research Center Final Technical...Ramirez- Marquez, D. Nowicki, A. Deshmukh , and M. Sarfaraz. Development of Systems Engineering Maturity Models and Management Tools. Systems Engineering

DEVELOPING SITE-SPECIFIC MODELS FOR FORECASTING BACTERIA LEVELS AT COASTAL BEACHES

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S.Beaches Environmental Assessment and Coastal Health Act of 2000 authorizes studies of pathogen indicators in coastal recreation waters that develop appropriate, accurate, expeditious, and cost-effective methods (including predictive models) for quantifying pathogens in co...

Computation of Turbulent Wake Flows in Variable Pressure Gradient

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duquesne, N.; Carlson, J. R.; Rumsey, C. L.; Gatski, T. B.

1999-01-01

Transport aircraft performance is strongly influenced by the effectiveness of high-lift systems. Developing wakes generated by the airfoil elements are subjected to strong pressure gradients and can thicken very rapidly, limiting maximum lift. This paper focuses on the effects of various pressure gradients on developing symmetric wakes and on the ability of a linear eddy viscosity model and a non-linear explicit algebraic stress model to accurately predict their downstream evolution. In order to reduce the uncertainties arising from numerical issues when assessing the performance of turbulence models, three different numerical codes with the same turbulence models are used. Results are compared to available experimental data to assess the accuracy of the computational results.

Relationships between rainfall and Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mailhot, A.; Talbot, G.; Lavallée, B.

2015-04-01

Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) has been recognized as a major environmental issue in many countries. In Canada, the proposed reinforcement of the CSO frequency regulations will result in new constraints on municipal development. Municipalities will have to demonstrate that new developments do not increase CSO frequency above a reference level based on historical CSO records. Governmental agencies will also have to define a framework to assess the impact of new developments on CSO frequency and the efficiency of the various proposed measures to maintain CSO frequency at its historic level. In such a context, it is important to correctly assess the average number of days with CSO and to define relationships between CSO frequency and rainfall characteristics. This paper investigates such relationships using available CSO and rainfall datasets for Quebec. CSO records for 4285 overflow structures (OS) were analyzed. A simple model based on rainfall thresholds was developed to forecast the occurrence of CSO on a given day based on daily rainfall values. The estimated probability of days with CSO have been used to estimate the rainfall threshold value at each OS by imposing that the probability of exceeding this rainfall value for a given day be equal to the estimated probability of days with CSO. The forecast skill of this model was assessed for 3437 OS using contingency tables. The statistical significance of the forecast skill could be assessed for 64.2% of these OS. The threshold model has demonstrated significant forecast skill for 91.3% of these OS confirming that for most OS a simple threshold model can be used to assess the occurrence of CSO.

A case study of development and application of a streamlined control and response modeling system for PM2.5 attainment assessment in China.

PubMed

Long, Shicheng; Zhu, Yun; Jang, Carey; Lin, Che-Jen; Wang, Shuxiao; Zhao, Bin; Gao, Jian; Deng, Shuang; Xie, Junping; Qiu, Xuezhen

2016-03-01

This article describes the development and application of a streamlined air control and response modeling system with a novel response surface modeling-linear coupled fitting method and a new module to provide streamlined model data for PM2.5 attainment assessment in China. This method is capable of significantly reducing the dimensions required to establish a response surface model, as well as capturing more realistic response of PM2.5 to emission changes with a limited number of model simulations. The newly developed module establishes a data link between the system and the Software for Model Attainment Test-Community Edition (SMAT-CE), and has the ability to rapidly provide model responses to emission control scenarios for SMAT-CE using a simple interface. The performance of this streamlined system is demonstrated through a case study of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China. Our results show that this system is capable of reproducing the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulation results with maximum mean normalized error<3.5%. It is also demonstrated that primary emissions make a major contribution to ambient levels of PM2.5 in January and August (e.g., more than 50% contributed by primary emissions in Shanghai), and Shanghai needs to have regional emission control both locally and in its neighboring provinces to meet China's annual PM2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standard. The streamlined system provides a real-time control/response assessment to identify the contributions of major emission sources to ambient PM2.5 (and potentially O3 as well) and streamline air quality data for SMAT-CE to perform attainment assessments. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A planning algorithm for quantifying decentralised water management opportunities in urban environments.

PubMed

Bach, Peter M; McCarthy, David T; Urich, Christian; Sitzenfrei, Robert; Kleidorfer, Manfred; Rauch, Wolfgang; Deletic, Ana

2013-01-01

With global change bringing about greater challenges for the resilient planning and management of urban water infrastructure, research has been invested in the development of a strategic planning tool, DAnCE4Water. The tool models how urban and societal changes impact the development of centralised and decentralised (distributed) water infrastructure. An algorithm for rigorous assessment of suitable decentralised stormwater management options in the model is presented and tested on a local Melbourne catchment. Following detailed spatial representation algorithms (defined by planning rules), the model assesses numerous stormwater options to meet water quality targets at a variety of spatial scales. A multi-criteria assessment algorithm is used to find top-ranking solutions (which meet a specific treatment performance for a user-defined percentage of catchment imperviousness). A toolbox of five stormwater technologies (infiltration systems, surface wetlands, bioretention systems, ponds and swales) is featured. Parameters that set the algorithm's flexibility to develop possible management options are assessed and evaluated. Results are expressed in terms of 'utilisation', which characterises the frequency of use of different technologies across the top-ranking options (bioretention being the most versatile). Initial results highlight the importance of selecting a suitable spatial resolution and providing the model with enough flexibility for coming up with different technology combinations. The generic nature of the model enables its application to other urban areas (e.g. different catchments, local municipal regions or entire cities).

Meteorological disaster management and assessment system design and implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Wei; Luo, Bin; Wu, Huanping

2009-09-01

Disaster prevention and mitigation get more and more attentions by Chinese government, with the national economic development in recent years. Some problems exhibit in traditional disaster management, such as the chaotic management of data, low level of information, poor data sharing. To improve the capability of information in disaster management, Meteorological Disaster Management and Assessment System (MDMAS) was developed and is introduced in the paper. MDMAS uses three-tier C/S architecture, including the application layer, data layer and service layer. Current functions of MDMAS include the typhoon and rainstorm assessment, disaster data query and statistics, automatic cartography for disaster management. The typhoon and rainstorm assessment models can be used in both pre-assessment of pre-disaster and post-disaster assessment. Implementation of automatic cartography uses ArcGIS Geoprocessing and ModelBuilder. In practice, MDMAS has been utilized to provide warning information, disaster assessment and services products. MDMAS is an efficient tool for meteorological disaster management and assessment. It can provide decision supports for disaster prevention and mitigation.

Meteorological disaster management and assessment system design and implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Wei; Luo, Bin; Wu, Huanping

2010-11-01

Disaster prevention and mitigation get more and more attentions by Chinese government, with the national economic development in recent years. Some problems exhibit in traditional disaster management, such as the chaotic management of data, low level of information, poor data sharing. To improve the capability of information in disaster management, Meteorological Disaster Management and Assessment System (MDMAS) was developed and is introduced in the paper. MDMAS uses three-tier C/S architecture, including the application layer, data layer and service layer. Current functions of MDMAS include the typhoon and rainstorm assessment, disaster data query and statistics, automatic cartography for disaster management. The typhoon and rainstorm assessment models can be used in both pre-assessment of pre-disaster and post-disaster assessment. Implementation of automatic cartography uses ArcGIS Geoprocessing and ModelBuilder. In practice, MDMAS has been utilized to provide warning information, disaster assessment and services products. MDMAS is an efficient tool for meteorological disaster management and assessment. It can provide decision supports for disaster prevention and mitigation.

Initial assessment of a model relating intratumoral genetic heterogeneity to radiological morphology

PubMed Central

Noterdaeme, O; Kelly, M; Friend, P; Soonowalla, Z; Steers, G; Brady, M

2010-01-01

Tumour heterogeneity has major implications for tumour development and response to therapy. Tumour heterogeneity results from mutations in the genes responsible for mismatch repair or maintenance of chromosomal stability. Cells with different genetic properties may grow at different rates and exhibit different resistance to therapeutic interventions. To date, there exists no approach to non-invasively assess tumour heterogeneity. Here we present a biologically inspired model of tumour growth, which relates intratumoral genetic heterogeneity to gross morphology visible on radiological images. The model represents the development of a tumour as a set of expanding spheres, each sphere representing a distinct clonal centre, with the sprouting of new spheres corresponding to new clonal centres. Each clonal centre may possess different characteristics relating to genetic composition, growth rate and response to treatment. We present a clinical example for which the model accurately tracks tumour growth and shows the correspondence to genetic variation (as determined by array comparative genomic hybridisation). One clinical implication of our work is that the assessment of heterogeneous tumours using Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours (RECIST) or volume measurements may not accurately reflect tumour growth, stability or the response to treatment. We believe that this is the first model linking the macro-scale appearance of tumours to their genetic composition. We anticipate that our model will provide a more informative way to assess the response of heterogeneous tumours to treatment, which is of increasing importance with the development of novel targeted anti-cancer treatments. PMID:19690073

A model for evaluating the environmental benefits of elementary school facilities.

PubMed

Ji, Changyoon; Hong, Taehoon; Jeong, Kwangbok; Leigh, Seung-Bok

2014-01-01

In this study, a model that is capable of evaluating the environmental benefits of a new elementary school facility was developed. The model is composed of three steps: (i) retrieval of elementary school facilities having similar characteristics as the new elementary school facility using case-based reasoning; (ii) creation of energy consumption and material data for the benchmark elementary school facility using the retrieved similar elementary school facilities; and (iii) evaluation of the environmental benefits of the new elementary school facility by assessing and comparing the environmental impact of the new and created benchmark elementary school facility using life cycle assessment. The developed model can present the environmental benefits of a new elementary school facility in terms of monetary values using Environmental Priority Strategy 2000, a damage-oriented life cycle impact assessment method. The developed model can be used for the following: (i) as criteria for a green-building rating system; (ii) as criteria for setting the support plan and size, such as the government's incentives for promoting green-building projects; and (iii) as criteria for determining the feasibility of green building projects in key business sectors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computerized Adaptive Assessment of Personality Disorder: Introducing the CAT-PD Project

PubMed Central

Simms, Leonard J.; Goldberg, Lewis R.; Roberts, John E.; Watson, David; Welte, John; Rotterman, Jane H.

2011-01-01

Assessment of personality disorders (PD) has been hindered by reliance on the problematic categorical model embodied in the most recent Diagnostic and Statistical Model of Mental Disorders (DSM), lack of consensus among alternative dimensional models, and inefficient measurement methods. This article describes the rationale for and early results from an NIMH-funded, multi-year study designed to develop an integrative and comprehensive model and efficient measure of PD trait dimensions. To accomplish these goals, we are in the midst of a five-phase project to develop and validate the model and measure. The results of Phase 1 of the project—which was focused on developing the PD traits to be assessed and the initial item pool—resulted in a candidate list of 59 PD traits and an initial item pool of 2,589 items. Data collection and structural analyses in community and patient samples will inform the ultimate structure of the measure, and computerized adaptive testing (CAT) will permit efficient measurement of the resultant traits. The resultant Computerized Adaptive Test of Personality Disorder (CAT-PD) will be well positioned as a measure of the proposed DSM-5 PD traits. Implications for both applied and basic personality research are discussed. PMID:22804677

Development of the evaluation instrument use CIPP on the implementation of project assessment topic optik

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asfaroh, Jati Aurum; Rosana, Dadan; Supahar

2017-08-01

This research aims to develop an evaluation instrument models CIPP valid and reliable as well as determine the feasibility and practicality of an evaluation instrument models CIPP. An evaluation instrument models CIPP to evaluate the implementation of the project assessment topic optik to measure problem-solving skills of junior high school class VIII in the Yogyakarta region. This research is a model of development that uses 4-D. Subject of product trials are students in class VIII SMP N 1 Galur and SMP N 1 Sleman. Data collection techniques in this research using non-test techniques include interviews, questionnaires and observations. Validity in this research was analyzed using V'Aikens. Reliability analyzed using ICC. This research uses 7 raters are derived from two lecturers expert (expert judgment), two practitioners (science teacher) and three colleagues. The results of this research is the evaluation's instrument model of CIPP is used to evaluate the implementation of the implementation of the project assessment instruments. The validity result of evaluation instrument have V'Aikens values between 0.86 to 1, which means a valid and 0.836 reliability values into categories so well that it has been worth used as an evaluation instrument.

Identifying at-risk employees: A behavioral model for predicting potential insider threats

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Noonan, Christine F.

A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. In many of these crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they could be assessed by a person experienced in psychosocial evaluations.more » We have developed a model using a Bayesian belief network with the help of human resources staff, experienced in evaluating behaviors in staff. We conducted an experiment to assess its agreement with human resources and management professionals, with positive results. If implemented in an operational setting, the model would be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment that can raise an alarm about employees who pose higher insider threat risks. In separate work, we combine this psychosocial model’s assessment with computer workstation behavior to raise the efficacy of recognizing an insider crime in the making.« less

Geometry reconstruction method for patient-specific finite element models for the assessment of tibia fracture risk in osteogenesis imperfecta.

PubMed

Caouette, Christiane; Ikin, Nicole; Villemure, Isabelle; Arnoux, Pierre-Jean; Rauch, Frank; Aubin, Carl-Éric

2017-04-01

Lower limb deformation in children with osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) impairs ambulation and may lead to fracture. Corrective surgery is based on empirical assessment criteria. The objective was to develop a reconstruction method of the tibia for OI patients that could be used as input of a comprehensive finite element model to assess fracture risks. Data were obtained from three children with OI and tibia deformities. Four pQCT scans were registered to biplanar radiographs, and a template mesh was deformed to fit the bone outline. Cortical bone thickness was computed. Sensitivity of the model to missing slices of pQCT was assessed by calculating maximal von Mises stress for a vertical hopping load case. Sensitivity of the model to ±5 % of cortical thickness measurements was assessed by calculating loads at fracture. Difference between the mesh contour and bone outline on the radiographs was below 1 mm. Removal of one pQCT slice increased maximal von Mises stress by up to 10 %. Simulated ±5 % variation of cortical bone thickness leads to variations of up to 4.1 % on predicted fracture loads. Using clinically available tibia imaging from children with OI, the developed reconstruction method allowed the building of patient-specific finite element models.

The development of a model for predicting passenger acceptance of short-haul air transportation systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhlthau, A. R.; Jacobson, I. D.

1977-01-01

Meaningful criteria and methodology for assessing, particularly in the area of ride quality, the potential acceptability to the traveling public of present and future transportation systems were investigated. Ride quality was found to be one of the important variables affecting the decision of users of air transportation, and to be influenced by several environmental factors, especially motion, noise, pressure, temperature, and seating. Models were developed to quantify the relationship of subjective comfort to all of these parameters and then were exercised for a variety of situations. Passenger satisfaction was found to be strongly related to ride quality and was so modeled. A computer program was developed to assess the comfort and satisfaction levels of passengers on aircraft subjected to arbitrary flight profiles over arbitrary terrain. A model was deduced of the manner in which passengers integrate isolated segments of a flight to obtain an overall trip comfort rating. A method was established for assessing the influence of other links (e.g., access, terminal conditions) in the overall passenger trip.

Multimodal Career Education for Nursing Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Southern, Stephen; Smith, Robert L.

A multimodal career education model entitled BEST IDEA was field tested as an approach to the problem of retaining skilled nurses in the work force. Using multimodal assessment and intervention strategies derived from the multimodal behavior therapy of Arnold Lazarus, researchers developed an individualized career development assessment and…

Innovative Models of Dental Care Delivery and Coverage: Patient-Centric Dental Benefits Based on Digital Oral Health Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Martin, John; Mills, Shannon; Foley, Mary E

2018-04-01

Innovative models of dental care delivery and coverage are emerging across oral health care systems causing changes to treatment and benefit plans. A novel addition to these models is digital risk assessment, which offers a promising new approach that incorporates the use of a cloud-based technology platform to assess an individual patient's risk for oral disease. Risk assessment changes treatment by including risk as a modifier of treatment and as a determinant of preventive services. Benefit plans are being developed to use risk assessment to predetermine preventive benefits for patients identified at elevated risk for oral disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Modeling and Simulation Approaches: A Systematic Review of Published Models, Applications, and Model Verification

PubMed Central

Sager, Jennifer E.; Yu, Jingjing; Ragueneau-Majlessi, Isabelle

2015-01-01

Modeling and simulation of drug disposition has emerged as an important tool in drug development, clinical study design and regulatory review, and the number of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling related publications and regulatory submissions have risen dramatically in recent years. However, the extent of use of PBPK modeling by researchers, and the public availability of models has not been systematically evaluated. This review evaluates PBPK-related publications to 1) identify the common applications of PBPK modeling; 2) determine ways in which models are developed; 3) establish how model quality is assessed; and 4) provide a list of publically available PBPK models for sensitive P450 and transporter substrates as well as selective inhibitors and inducers. PubMed searches were conducted using the terms “PBPK” and “physiologically based pharmacokinetic model” to collect published models. Only papers on PBPK modeling of pharmaceutical agents in humans published in English between 2008 and May 2015 were reviewed. A total of 366 PBPK-related articles met the search criteria, with the number of articles published per year rising steadily. Published models were most commonly used for drug-drug interaction predictions (28%), followed by interindividual variability and general clinical pharmacokinetic predictions (23%), formulation or absorption modeling (12%), and predicting age-related changes in pharmacokinetics and disposition (10%). In total, 106 models of sensitive substrates, inhibitors, and inducers were identified. An in-depth analysis of the model development and verification revealed a lack of consistency in model development and quality assessment practices, demonstrating a need for development of best-practice guidelines. PMID:26296709

Application of the Rasch Rating Scale Model to the Assessment of Quality of Life of Persons with Intellectual Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gomez, Laura E.; Arias, Benito; Verdugo, Miguel Angel; Navas, Patricia

2012-01-01

Background: Most instruments that assess quality of life have been validated by means of the classical test theory (CTT). However, CTT limitations have resulted in the development of alternative models, such as the Rasch rating scale model (RSM). The main goal of this paper is testing and improving the psychometric properties of the INTEGRAL…

Sustainability assessment through analogical models: The approach of aerobic living-organism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dassisti, Michele

2014-10-01

The most part of scientific discoveries of human being borrow ideas and inspiration from nature. This point gives the rationale of the sustainability assessment approach presented here and based on the aerobic living organism (ALO) already developed by the author, which funds on the basic assumption that it is reasonable and effective to refer to the analogy between an system organized by human (say, manufacturing system, enterprise, etc.) for several decision-making scopes. The critical review of the ALO conceptual model already developed is here discussed through an example of an Italian small enterprise manufacturing metal components for civil furniture to assess its feasibility for sustainability appraisal.

Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS): Life Cycle Cost Impact Modeling System Reliability, Maintainability, and Cost Model (RMCM)--Description. Users Guide. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goclowski, John C.; And Others

The Reliability, Maintainability, and Cost Model (RMCM) described in this report is an interactive mathematical model with a built-in sensitivity analysis capability. It is a major component of the Life Cycle Cost Impact Model (LCCIM), which was developed as part of the DAIS advanced development program to be used to assess the potential impacts…

Evaluation of the Navys Sea/Shore Flow Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

Std. Z39.18 i Abstract CNA developed an independent Discrete -Event Simulation model to evaluate and assess the effect of...a more steady manning level, but the variability remains, even if the system is optimized. In building a Discrete -Event Simulation model, we...steady-state model. In FY 2014, CNA developed a Discrete -Event Simulation model to evaluate the impact of sea/shore flow policy (the DES-SSF model

The environmental analysis of helicopter operations by Federal agencies: Current procedures and research needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, C. C.; Warner, D. B.; Dajani, J. S.

1977-01-01

The technical, economic, and environmental problems restricting commercial helicopter passenger operations are reviewed. The key considerations for effective assessment procedures are outlined and a preliminary model for the environmental analysis of helicopters is developed. It is recommended that this model, or some similar approach, be used as a common base for the development of comprehensive environmental assessment methods for each of the federal agencies concerned with helicopters. A description of the critical environmental research issues applicable to helicopters is also presented.

Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

2005-12-01

We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such modelsmore » do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3« less

Factor Analysis of the HEW National Strategy for Youth Development Model's Community Program Impact Scales.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Truckenmiller, James L.

The former HEW (Health, Education, and Welfare) National Strategy for Youth Development Model proposed a community-based program to promote positive youth development and to prevent delinquency through a sequence of youth needs assessments, needs-targeted programs, and program impact evaluation. HEW Community Program Impact Scales data obtained…

The Emerging and Employed Worker: Planning for the Strategic Imperative.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geroy, Gary D.

This paper describes a series of four models around which plans can be developed to determine human development needs. It presents needs assessment models describing the process and participant interaction by which information is gathered to be used in education, training, funding, and/or other human resource development interventions to increase…