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Sample records for model gsam annual

  1. Development of a natural gas systems analysis model (GSAM). Annual report, January 1994--January 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1994-07-01

    The objective of GSAM development is to create a comprehensive, non-proprietary, microcomputer model of the North American natural gas system. GSAM explicitly evaluates the key components of the system, including the resource base, exploration and development practices, extraction technology performance and costs, project economics, transportation costs and restrictions, storage, and end-use. The primary focus is the detailed characterization of the resource base at the reservoir and sub-reservoir level. This disaggregation allows direct evaluation of alternative extraction technologies based on discretely estimated, individual well productivity, required investments, and associated operating costs. GSAM`s design allows users to evaluate complex interactions of current and alternative future technology and policy initiatives as they directly impact the gas market. Key activities completed during the past year include: conducted a comparative analysis of commercial reservoir databases; licensed and screened NRG Associates Significant Oil and Gas Fields of the US reservoir database; developed and tested reduced form reservoir model production type curves; fully developed database structures for use in GSAM and linkage to other systems; developed a methodology for the exploration module; collected and updated upstream capital and operating cost parameters; completed initial integration of downstream/demand models; presented research results at METC Contractor Review Meeting; conducted other briefings for METC managers, including initiation of the GSAM Environmental Module; and delivered draft topical reports on technology review, model review, and GSAM methodology.

  2. Development of a natural Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM). Annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-01

    Lacking a detailed characterization of the resource base and a comprehensive borehole-to-burnertip evaluation model of the North American natural gas system, past R&D, tax and regulatory policies have been formulated without a full understanding of their likely direct and indirect impacts on future gas supply and demand. The recent disappearance of the deliverability surplus, pipeline deregulation, and current policy debates about regulatory initiatives in taxation, environmental compliance and leasing make the need for a comprehensive gas evaluation system critical. Traditional econometric or highly aggregated energy models are increasingly regarded as unable to incorporate available geologic detail and explicit technology performance and costing algorithms necessary to evaluate resource-technology-economic interactions in a market context. The objective of this research is to create a comprehensive, non-proprietary, microcomputer model of the North American natural gas system. GSAM explicitly evaluates the key components of the natural gas system, including resource base, exploration and development, extraction technology performance and costs, transportation and storage and end use. The primary focus is the detailed characterization of the resource base at the reservoir and sub-reservoir level and the impact of alternative extraction technologies on well productivity and economics. GSAM evaluates the complex interactions of current and alternative future technology and policy initiatives in the context of the evolving gas markets. Scheduled for completion in 1995, a prototype is planned for early 1994. ICF Resources reviewed relevant natural gas upstream, downstream and market models to identify appropriate analytic capabilities to incorporate into GSAM. We have reviewed extraction technologies to better characterize performance and costs in terms of GSAM parameters.

  3. Development of a natural gas systems analysis model (GSAM). Annual report, July 1994--June 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-07-01

    North American natural gas markets have changed dramatically over the past decade. A competitive, cost-conscious production, transportation, and distribution system has emerged from the highly regulated transportation wellhead pricing structure of the 1980`s. Technology advances have played an important role in the evolution of the gas industry, a role likely to expand substantially as alternative fuel price competition and a maturing natural gas resource base force operators to maximize efficiency. Finally, significant changes continue in regional gas demand patterns, industry practices, and infrastructure needs. As the complexity of the gas system grows so does the need to evaluate and plan for alternative future resource, technology, and market scenarios. Traditional gas modeling systems focused solely on the econometric aspects of gas marketing. These systems, developed to assess a regulated industry at a high level of aggregation, rely on simple representation of complex and evolving systems, thereby precluding insight into how the industry will change over time. Credible evaluations of specific policy initiatives and research activities require a different approach. Also, the mounting pressure on energy producers from environmental compliance activities requires development of analysis that incorporates relevant geologic, engineering, and project economic details. The objective of policy, research and development (R&D), and market analysis is to integrate fundamental understanding of natural gas resources, technology, and markets to fully describe the potential of the gas resource under alternative future scenarios. This report summarizes work over the past twelve months on DOE Contract DE-AC21-92MC28138, Development of a Natural Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM). The products developed under this project directly support the Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC) in carrying out its natural gas R&D mission.

  4. Development of a natural gas systems analysis model (GSAM)

    SciTech Connect

    1999-10-01

    This report provides an overview of the activities to date and schedule for future testing, validation, and authorized enhancements of Natural Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM). The goal of this report is to inform DOE managers of progress in model development and to provide a benchmark for ongoing and future research. Section II of the report provides a detailed discussion on the major GSAM development programs performed and completed during the period of performance, July 1, 1998 to September 30, 1999. Key improvements in the new GSAM version are summarized in Section III. Programmer's guides for GSAM main modules were produced to provide detailed descriptions of all major subroutines and main variables of the computer code. General logical flowcharts of the subroutines are also presented in the guides to provide overall picture of interactions between the subroutines. A standard structure of routine explanation is applied in every programmer's guide. The explanation is started with a brief description or main purpose of the routine, lists of input and output files read and created, and lists of invoked/child and calling/parent routines. In some of the guides, interactions between the routine itself and its parent and child routines are presented in the form of graphical flowchart. The explanation is then proceeded with step by step description of computer code in the subroutine where each step delegates a section of related code. Between steps, if a certain section of code needs further explanation, a Note is inserted with relevant explanation.

  5. Development of a gas systems analysis model (GSAM)

    SciTech Connect

    Godec, M.L.

    1995-04-01

    The objectives of developing a Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM) are to create a comprehensive, non-proprietary, PC based model of domestic gas industry activity. The system is capable of assessing the impacts of various changes in the natural gas system within North America. The individual and collective impacts due to changes in technology and economic conditions are explicitly modeled in GSAM. Major gas resources are all modeled, including conventional, tight, Devonian Shale, coalbed methane, and low-quality gas sources. The modeling system asseses all key components of the gas industry, including available resources, exploration, drilling, completion, production, and processing practices, both for now and in the future. The model similarly assesses the distribution, storage, and utilization of natural gas in a dynamic market-based analytical structure. GSAM is designed to provide METC managers with a tool to project the impacts of future research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) benefits in order to determine priorities in a rapidly changing, market-driven gas industry.

  6. DEVELOPMENT OF A NATURAL GAS SYSTEMS ANALYSIS MODEL (GSAM) VOLUME I - SUMMARY REPORT VOLUME II - USER'S GUIDE VOLUME IIIA - RP PROGRAMMER'S GUIDE VOLUME IIIB - SRPM PROGRAMMER'S GUIDE VOLUME IIIC - E&P PROGRAMMER'S GUIDE VOLUME IIID - D&I PROGRAMMER'S GUIDE

    SciTech Connect

    Unknown

    2001-02-01

    This report summarizes work completed on DOE Contract DE-AC21-92MC28138, Development of a Natural Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM). The products developed under this project directly support the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in carrying out its natural gas R&D mission. The objective of this research effort has been to create a comprehensive, non-proprietary, microcomputer model of the North American natural gas market. GSAM has been developed to explicitly evaluate components of the natural gas system, including the entire in-place gas resource base, exploration and development technologies, extraction technology and performance parameters, transportation and storage factors, and end-use demand issues. The system has been fully tested and calibrated and has been used for multiple natural gas metrics analyses at NETL in which metric associated with NETL natural gas upstream R&D technologies and strategies under the direction of NETL has been evaluated. NETL's Natural Gas Strategic Plan requires that R&D activities be evaluated for their ability to provide adequate supplies of reasonably priced natural gas. GSAM provides the capability to assess potential and on-going R&D projects using a full fuel cycle, cost-benefit approach. This method yields realistic, market-based assessments of benefits and costs of alternative or related technology advances. GSAM is capable of estimating both technical and commercial successes, quantifying the potential benefits to the market, as well as to other related research. GSAM, therefore, represents an integration of research activities and a method for planning and prioritizing efforts to maximize benefits and minimize costs. Without an analytical tool like GSAM, NETL natural gas upstream R&D activities cannot be appropriately ranked or focused on the most important aspects of natural gas extraction efforts or utilization considerations.

  7. A generalized approach to the modeling of the species-area relationship.

    PubMed

    Conceição, Katiane Silva; Ulrich, Werner; Diniz, Carlos Alberto Ribeiro; Rodrigues, Francisco Aparecido; de Andrade, Marinho Gomes

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a statistical generalized species-area model (GSAM) to represent various patterns of species-area relationship (SAR), which is one of the fundamental patterns in ecology. The approach enables the generalization of many preliminary models, as power-curve model, which is commonly used to mathematically describe the SAR. The GSAM is applied to simulated data set of species diversity in areas of different sizes and a real-world data of insects of Hymenoptera order has been modeled. We show that the GSAM enables the identification of the best statistical model and estimates the number of species according to the area.

  8. A Generalized Approach to the Modeling of the Species-Area Relationship

    PubMed Central

    Conceição, Katiane Silva; Ulrich, Werner; Diniz, Carlos Alberto Ribeiro; Rodrigues, Francisco Aparecido; de Andrade, Marinho Gomes

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a statistical generalized species-area model (GSAM) to represent various patterns of species-area relationship (SAR), which is one of the fundamental patterns in ecology. The approach enables the generalization of many preliminary models, as power-curve model, which is commonly used to mathematically describe the SAR. The GSAM is applied to simulated data set of species diversity in areas of different sizes and a real-world data of insects of Hymenoptera order has been modeled. We show that the GSAM enables the identification of the best statistical model and estimates the number of species according to the area. PMID:25171161

  9. The GSAM software: A global search algorithm of minima exploration for the investigation of low lying isomers of clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchal, Rémi; Carbonnière, Philippe; Pouchan, Claude

    2015-01-01

    The study of atomic clusters has become an increasingly active area of research in the recent years because of the fundamental interest in studying a completely new area that can bridge the gap between atomic and solid state physics. Due to their specific properties, such compounds are of great interest in the field of nanotechnology [1,2]. Here, we would present our GSAM algorithm based on a DFT exploration of the PES to find the low lying isomers of such compounds. This algorithm includes the generation of an intial set of structure from which the most relevant are selected. Moreover, an optimization process, called raking optimization, able to discard step by step all the non physically reasonnable configurations have been implemented to reduce the computational cost of this algorithm. Structural properties of GanAs m clusters will be presented as an illustration of the method.

  10. The GSAM software: A global search algorithm of minima exploration for the investigation of low lying isomers of clusters

    SciTech Connect

    Marchal, Rémi; Carbonnière, Philippe; Pouchan, Claude

    2015-01-22

    The study of atomic clusters has become an increasingly active area of research in the recent years because of the fundamental interest in studying a completely new area that can bridge the gap between atomic and solid state physics. Due to their specific properties, such compounds are of great interest in the field of nanotechnology [1,2]. Here, we would present our GSAM algorithm based on a DFT exploration of the PES to find the low lying isomers of such compounds. This algorithm includes the generation of an intial set of structure from which the most relevant are selected. Moreover, an optimization process, called raking optimization, able to discard step by step all the non physically reasonnable configurations have been implemented to reduce the computational cost of this algorithm. Structural properties of Ga{sub n}Asm clusters will be presented as an illustration of the method.

  11. Theory, Modeling and Simulation Annual Report 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, David A; Garrett, Bruce C; Straatsma, TP; Jones, Donald R; Studham, Scott; Harrison, Robert J; Nichols, Jeffrey A

    2001-11-01

    This annual report describes the 2000 research accomplishments for the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation (TM and S) directorate, one of the six research organizations in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). EMSL is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national scientific user facility and is the centerpiece of the DOE commitment to providing world-class experimental, theoretical, and computational capabilities for solving the nation's environmental problems.

  12. Theory, Modeling and Simulation Annual Report 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, David A.; Garrett, Bruce C.; Straatsma, Tp; Jones, Donald R.; Studham, Ronald S.; Harrison, Robert J.; Nichols, Jeffrey A.

    2001-11-01

    This annual report describes the 2000 research accomplishments for the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation (TM&S) directorate, one of the six research organizations in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). EMSL is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national scientific user facility and is the centerpiece of the DOE commitment to providing world-class experimental, theoretical, and computational capabilities for solving the nation's environmental problems.

  13. A Distributed Platform for Global-Scale Agent-Based Models of Disease Transmission

    PubMed Central

    Parker, Jon; Epstein, Joshua M.

    2013-01-01

    The Global-Scale Agent Model (GSAM) is presented. The GSAM is a high-performance distributed platform for agent-based epidemic modeling capable of simulating a disease outbreak in a population of several billion agents. It is unprecedented in its scale, its speed, and its use of Java. Solutions to multiple challenges inherent in distributing massive agent-based models are presented. Communication, synchronization, and memory usage are among the topics covered in detail. The memory usage discussion is Java specific. However, the communication and synchronization discussions apply broadly. We provide benchmarks illustrating the GSAM’s speed and scalability. PMID:24465120

  14. Three Proposed Data Collection Models for Annual Inventories

    Treesearch

    Greg Reams; Bill Smith; Bill Bechtold; Ron McRoberts; Frank Spirek; Chuck Liff

    2005-01-01

    Three competing data collection models for the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program?s annual inventories are presented. We show that in the presence of panel creep, the model now in place does not meet requirements of an annual inventory system mandated by the 1998 Farm Bill. Two data-collection models that use...

  15. Annual updating of plantation inventory estimates using hybrid models

    Treesearch

    Peter Snowdon

    2000-01-01

    Data for Pinus radiata D. Don grown in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) are used to show that annual indices of growth potential can be successfully incorporated into Schumacher projection models of stand basal area growth. Significant reductions in the error mean squares of the models can be obtained by including an annual growth index derived...

  16. Annual modulation experiments, galactic models and WIMPs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudson, Robert G.

    Our task in the paper is to examine some recent experiments (in the period 1996-2002) bearing on the issue of whether there is dark matter in the universe in the form of neutralino WIMPs (weakly interacting massive particles). Our main focus is an experiment performed by the DAMA group that claims to have found an 'annual modulation signature' for the WIMP. DAMA's result has been hotly contested by two other groups, EDELWEISS and CDMS, and we study the details of the experiments performed by all three groups. Our goal is to investigate the philosophic and sociological implications of this controversy. Particularly, using an innovative theoretical strategy suggested by (Copi, C. and L. M. Krauss (2003). Comparing interaction rate detectors for weakly interacting massive particles with annual modulation detectors. Physical Review D, 67, 103 507), we suggest a new way of resolving discordant experimental data (extending a previous analysis by (Franklin, A. (2002). Selectivity and discord. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press). In addition, we are in a position to contribute substantively to the debate between realists and constructive empiricists. Finally, from a sociological standpoint, we remark that DAMA's work has been valuable in mobilizing other research teams and providing them with a critical focus.

  17. Theory, modeling, and simulation annual report, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    This report briefly discusses research on the following topics: development of electronic structure methods; modeling molecular processes in clusters; modeling molecular processes in solution; modeling molecular processes in separations chemistry; modeling interfacial molecular processes; modeling molecular processes in the atmosphere; methods for periodic calculations on solids; chemistry and physics of minerals; graphical user interfaces for computational chemistry codes; visualization and analysis of molecular simulations; integrated computational chemistry environment; and benchmark computations.

  18. Fire Modeling Institute 2011 Annual Report

    Treesearch

    Robin J. Innes

    2012-01-01

    The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI), a part of the Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program, provides a bridge between scientists and managers. The mission of FMI is to bring the best available science and technology developed throughout the research community to bear on fire-related management issues across the nation. Resource management...

  19. 2013 Annual Report: Fire Modeling Institute

    Treesearch

    Robin J. Innes; Faith Ann Heinsch; Kristine M. Lee

    2014-01-01

    The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI) of the U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS), is a national and international resource for fire managers. Located within the Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program at the Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory (Fire Lab) in Montana, FMI helps managers utilize fire and fuel science and technology developed throughout the...

  20. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE`s research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies.

  1. Infectivity model verification studies, annual report - 1981

    SciTech Connect

    McGrath, J.J.

    1982-01-01

    The infectivity model has been used as one of the leading indicators of the potential health effects that may be associated with energy-related pollutants including nitrogen dioxide (NOs), ozone, and diesel exhaust. The original studies with the infectivity model and chronic exposure to NO2 reported by Ehrlich and Henry (1968) have not been replicated. This report details the work that has been performed in Texas Tech's laboratory thus far in initiating a chronic NO2 exposure study to replicate the original work by Ehrlich and Henry, and reviews the preliminary results. At the end of the first contract year, a functioning inhalation facility with a capability to expose animals continuously to low levels of NO2 is in place. One group of animals has been exposed to NO2 for eight months and challenged with Klebsiella pneumonia by inhalation. The results are similar to, but do not replicate entirely, those reported by Ehrlich and Henry. Two additional exposures have been initiated, and the animals will be challenged with the infectious agent in a bacterial infectivity chamber similar to that used by EPA.

  2. A full annual cycle modeling framework for American black ducks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, Orin J.; McGowan, Conor; Devers, Patrick K.; Brook, Rodney W.; Huang, Min; Jones, Malcom; McAuley, Daniel G.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.

    2016-01-01

    American black ducks (Anas rubripes) are a harvested, international migratory waterfowl species in eastern North America. Despite an extended period of restrictive harvest regulations, the black duck population is still below the population goal identified in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP). It has been hypothesized that density-dependent factors restrict population growth in the black duck population and that habitat management (increases, improvements, etc.) may be a key component of growing black duck populations and reaching the prescribed NAWMP population goal. Using banding data from 1951 to 2011 and breeding population survey data from 1990 to 2014, we developed a full annual cycle population model for the American black duck. This model uses the seven management units as set by the Black Duck Joint Venture, allows movement into and out of each unit during each season, and models survival and fecundity for each region separately. We compare model population trajectories with observed population data and abundance estimates from the breeding season counts to show the accuracy of this full annual cycle model. With this model, we then show how to simulate the effects of habitat management on the continental black duck population.

  3. Modeling annual flooding in the Logone floodplain in Cameroon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, A.; Najafi, M. R.; Durand, M. T.; Mark, B. G.; Moritz, M.; Shastry, A.; Laborde, S.; Phang, S. C.; Hamilton, I.; Ningchuan, X.; Neal, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Logone floodplain (LFP), part of the Lake Chad Basin, is flooded annually by water from the Logone River and its branches during September and October. The inundated LFP is highly productive, providing support for fishing, pastoralism, and agriculture. In the last few decades, droughts, dam construction, manmade fishing canals (MFCs), and irrigation development have caused significant shifts in the LFP's flooding regime. Recently, MFCs have proliferated as consequence of ecological and manmade changes in the LFP. Future impacts of these modifications may parallel projected, although still uncertain, regional hydroclimatic changes derived from global warming. In order to understand feedbacks between human actions and hydroclimate, we are developing an integrated model that links hydroclimate, hydraulics, and human dynamics such as fishermen and pastoralist behavior. Here we present one component of this research focused on simulating the annual flooding dynamics of the LFP using LISFLOOD-FP, a raster-based numerical model that includes sub-grid parameterization of MFCs. Our goal is to evaluate the model's skill to simulate spatiotemporal features of the inundated LFP using a minimum amount of input data, such as discontinuous time series of river discharge and satellite-derived rainfall. Our simulations using three different spatial resolutions (1, 0.5, and 0.25-km grid-cell) suggest that the model is insensitive to pixel size, showing no significant differences between simulated volume, discharge, flooded area, and flood seasonality. Despite the model is able to simulate flow, with a Nash Sutcliff efficiency of 0.81, we find some significant spatial mismatch between observed and simulated inundation areas. In addition, results indicate that overbank flow provides more annual flood volume than rainfall. We discuss the impact of topographic and climatic input data on these results, as well as the potential to simulate the effects of MFCs on the local hydrology.

  4. Prospects for distinguishing dark matter models using annual modulation

    DOE PAGES

    Witte, Samuel J.; Gluscevic, Vera; McDermott, Samuel D.

    2017-02-24

    It has recently been demonstrated that, in the event of a putative signal in dark matter direct detection experiments, properly identifying the underlying dark matter-nuclei interaction promises to be a challenging task. Given the most optimistic expectations for the number counts of recoil events in the forthcoming Generation 2 experiments, differentiating between interactions that produce distinct features in the recoil energy spectra will only be possible if a strong signal is observed simultaneously on a variety of complementary targets. However, there is a wide range of viable theories that give rise to virtually identical energy spectra, and may only differmore » by the dependence of the recoil rate on the dark matter velocity. In this work, we investigate how degeneracy between such competing models may be broken by analyzing the time dependence of nuclear recoils, i.e. the annual modulation of the rate. For this purpose, we simulate dark matter events for a variety of interactions and experiments, and perform a Bayesian model-selection analysis on all simulated data sets, evaluating the chance of correctly identifying the input model for a given experimental setup. Lastly, we find that including information on the annual modulation of the rate may significantly enhance the ability of a single target to distinguish dark matter models with nearly degenerate recoil spectra, but only with exposures beyond the expectations of Generation 2 experiments.« less

  5. Prospects for distinguishing dark matter models using annual modulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witte, Samuel J.; Gluscevic, Vera; McDermott, Samuel D.

    2017-02-01

    It has recently been demonstrated that, in the event of a putative signal in dark matter direct detection experiments, properly identifying the underlying dark matter-nuclei interaction promises to be a challenging task. Given the most optimistic expectations for the number counts of recoil events in the forthcoming Generation 2 experiments, differentiating between interactions that produce distinct features in the recoil energy spectra will only be possible if a strong signal is observed simultaneously on a variety of complementary targets. However, there is a wide range of viable theories that give rise to virtually identical energy spectra, and may only differ by the dependence of the recoil rate on the dark matter velocity. In this work, we investigate how degeneracy between such competing models may be broken by analyzing the time dependence of nuclear recoils, i.e. the annual modulation of the rate. For this purpose, we simulate dark matter events for a variety of interactions and experiments, and perform a Bayesian model-selection analysis on all simulated data sets, evaluating the chance of correctly identifying the input model for a given experimental setup. We find that including information on the annual modulation of the rate may significantly enhance the ability of a single target to distinguish dark matter models with nearly degenerate recoil spectra, but only with exposures beyond the expectations of Generation 2 experiments.

  6. Imputatoin and Model-Based Updating Technique for Annual Forest Inventories

    Treesearch

    Ronald E. McRoberts

    2001-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service is developing an annual inventory system to establish the capability of producing annual estimates of timber volume and related variables. The inventory system features measurement of an annual sample of field plots with options for updating data for plots measured in previous years. One imputation and two model-based updating techniques are...

  7. Modeling annual mallard production in the prairie-parkland region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, M.W.

    2000-01-01

    Biologists have proposed several environmental factors that might influence production of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) nesting in the prairie-parkland region of the United States and Canada. These factors include precipitation, cold spring temperatures, wetland abundance, and upland breeding habitat. I used long-term historical data sets of climate, wetland numbers, agricultural land use, and size of breeding mallard populations in multiple regression analyses to model annual indices of mallard production. Models were constructed at 2 scales: a continental scale that encompassed most of the mid-continental breeding range of mallards and a stratum-level scale that included 23 portions of that same breeding range. The production index at the continental scale was the estimated age ratio of mid-continental mallards in early fall; at the stratum scale my production index was the estimated number of broods of all duck species within an aerial survey stratum. Size of breeding mallard populations in May, and pond numbers in May and July, best modeled production at the continental scale. Variables that best modeled production at the stratum scale differed by region. Crop variables tended to appear more in models for western Canadian strata; pond variables predominated in models for United States strata; and spring temperature and pond variables dominated models for eastern Canadian strata. An index of cold spring temperatures appeared in 4 of 6 models for aspen parkland strata, and in only 1 of 11 models for strata dominated by prairie. Stratum-level models suggest that regional factors influencing mallard production are not evident at a larger scale. Testing these potential factors in a manipulative fashion would improve our understanding of mallard population dynamics, improving our ability to manage the mid-continental mallard population.

  8. The AFIS tree growth model for updating annual forest inventories in Minnesota

    Treesearch

    Margaret R. Holdaway

    2000-01-01

    As the Forest Service moves towards annual inventories, states may use model predictions of growth to update unmeasured plots. A tree growth model (AFIS) based on the scaled Weibull function and using the average-adjusted model form is presented. Annual diameter growth for four species was modeled using undisturbed plots from Minnesota's Aspen-Birch and Northern...

  9. Joint modeling of annual maximum precipitation across different duration levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gräler, Benedikt; Fischer, Svenja; Schumann, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The statistical modeling of rainfall maxima in terms of their intensity for different durations, often known as IDF-curves (intensity-duration-frequency curves), is widely used for flood design. Typically, the single duration levels are modelled separately and combined under the assumption of independence. Nevertheless, the dependence among them has to be taken into account. For this, an approach is proposed where a set of generalized extreme value distributions and a D-vine copula are flexibly parameterized by the set of duration levels of interest. A priori, it is not necessary to fix the duration levels nor the number of duration levels. This joint model produces increasing values for both, longer duration levels and larger return periods. It is flexible enough to capture variations across the duration levels while reproducing the correlation structure of the data. An application is given by estimating the conditional distribution of a nested sub-basin with different areas, urban and rural. The different reaction times of the areas are taken into account by modelling the dependence structure whereas this is not the case for an independent model. We consider the annual maximum rainfall events as well as nested events.

  10. Joint modelling of annual maximum drought severity and corresponding duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tosunoglu, Fatih; Kisi, Ozgur

    2016-12-01

    In recent years, the joint distribution properties of drought characteristics (e.g. severity, duration and intensity) have been widely evaluated using copulas. However, history of copulas in modelling drought characteristics obtained from streamflow data is still short, especially in semi-arid regions, such as Turkey. In this study, unlike previous studies, drought events are characterized by annual maximum severity (AMS) and corresponding duration (CD) which are extracted from daily streamflow of the seven gauge stations located in Çoruh Basin, Turkey. On evaluation of the various univariate distributions, the Exponential, Weibull and Logistic distributions are identified as marginal distributions for the AMS and CD series. Archimedean copulas, namely Ali-Mikhail-Haq, Clayton, Frank and Gumbel-Hougaard, are then employed to model joint distribution of the AMS and CD series. With respect to the Anderson Darling and Cramér-von Mises statistical tests and the tail dependence assessment, Gumbel-Hougaard copula is identified as the most suitable model for joint modelling of the AMS and CD series at each station. Furthermore, the developed Gumbel-Hougaard copulas are used to derive the conditional and joint return periods of the AMS and CD series which can be useful for designing and management of reservoirs in the basin.

  11. Annual fish as a genetic model for aging.

    PubMed

    Herrera, Michael; Jagadeeswaran, Pudur

    2004-02-01

    Advancement in the genetics of aging and identification of longevity genes has been largely due to the model organisms such as Caenorhabditis elegans and Drosophila melanogaster. However, knowledge gained from these invertebrates will not be able to identify vertebrate-specific longevity genes. The mouse has a relatively long life span of about 3 years, which limits its utility for screening of longevity genes. Fish have been used in aging studies. However, systematic comparison of survivorship curves for fish is lacking. In this study, we compared the survivorship curves of zebrafish and 2 different annual fish, namely, Cynolebias nigripinnis and Nothobranchius rachovii. These studies established that Nothobranchius rachovii has the shortest life span (8.5 months, at which time 10% of population remains). We also established that it is possible to breed Nothobranchius rachovii under laboratory conditions, and showed that their embryos can be stored for several months and hatched at any time by adding water. In addition, we have isolated 31 cDNA markers out of 71 attempted amplifications based on corresponding homologous genomic sequences in zebrafish and Fugu available from public databases, suggesting that approximately 40% of the genes from Nothobranchius rachovii could be easily isolated. Thus, the ability to be bred under laboratory conditions and the availability of cDNA markers for mapping, along with the major advantage of a relatively short life span, make Nothobranchius rachovii an attractive vertebrate genetic model for aging over other available vertebrate models.

  12. Simulating annual glacier flow with a linear reservoir model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Span, Norbert; Kuhn, Michael

    2003-05-01

    In this paper we present a numerical simulation of the observation that most alpine glaciers have reached peak velocities in the early 1980s followed by nearly exponential decay of velocity in the subsequent decade. We propose that similarity exists between precipitation and associated runoff hydrograph in a river basin on one side and annual mean specific mass balance of the accumulation area of alpine glaciers and ensuing changes in ice flow on the other side. The similarity is expressed in terms of a linear reservoir with fluctuating input where the year to year change of ice velocity is governed by two terms, a fraction of the velocity of the previous year as a recession term and the mean specific balance of the accumulation area of the current year as a driving term. The coefficients of these terms directly relate to the timescale, the mass balance/altitude profile, and the geometric scale of the glacier. The model is well supported by observations in the upper part of the glacier where surface elevation stays constant to within ±5 m over a 30 year period. There is no temporal trend in the agreement between observed and modeled horizontal velocities and no difference between phases of acceleration and phases of deceleration, which means that the model is generally valid for a given altitude on a given glacier.

  13. Enhanced Modeling of Remotely Sensed Annual Land Surface Temperature Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Z.; Zhan, W.; Jiang, L.

    2017-09-01

    Satellite thermal remote sensing provides access to acquire large-scale Land surface temperature (LST) data, but also generates missing and abnormal values resulting from non-clear-sky conditions. Given this limitation, Annual Temperature Cycle (ATC) model was employed to reconstruct the continuous daily LST data over a year. The original model ATCO used harmonic functions, but the dramatic changes of the real LST caused by the weather changes remained unclear due to the smooth sine curve. Using Aqua/MODIS LST products, NDVI and meteorological data, we proposed enhanced model ATCE based on ATCO to describe the fluctuation and compared their performances for the Yangtze River Delta region of China. The results demonstrated that, the overall root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the ATCE was lower than ATCO, and the improved accuracy of daytime was better than that of night, with the errors decreased by 0.64 K and 0.36 K, respectively. The improvements of accuracies varied with different land cover types: the forest, grassland and built-up areas improved larger than water. And the spatial heterogeneity was observed for performance of ATC model: the RMSEs of built-up area, forest and grassland were around 3.0 K in the daytime, while the water attained 2.27 K; at night, the accuracies of all types significantly increased to similar RMSEs level about 2 K. By comparing the differences between LSTs simulated by two models in different seasons, it was found that the differences were smaller in the spring and autumn, while larger in the summer and winter.

  14. Annual Perspectives in Mathematics Education 2016: Mathematical Modeling and Modeling Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hirsch, Christian R., Ed.; McDuffie, Amy Roth, Ed.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical modeling plays an increasingly important role both in real-life applications--in engineering, business, the social sciences, climate study, advanced design, and more--and within mathematics education itself. This 2016 volume of "Annual Perspectives in Mathematics Education" ("APME") focuses on this key topic from a…

  15. Annual Perspectives in Mathematics Education 2016: Mathematical Modeling and Modeling Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hirsch, Christian R., Ed.; McDuffie, Amy Roth, Ed.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical modeling plays an increasingly important role both in real-life applications--in engineering, business, the social sciences, climate study, advanced design, and more--and within mathematics education itself. This 2016 volume of "Annual Perspectives in Mathematics Education" ("APME") focuses on this key topic from a…

  16. 76 FR 69769 - Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-09

    ... COMMISSION Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling... the Federal Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM) will convene...: Background: In 2001, six Federal agencies began formal cooperation under a Memorandum of Understanding...

  17. Disentangling density-dependent dynamics using full annual cycle models and Bayesian model weight updating

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, Orin J.; McGowan, Conor; Devers, Patrick K.

    2017-01-01

    Density dependence regulates populations of many species across all taxonomic groups. Understanding density dependence is vital for predicting the effects of climate, habitat loss and/or management actions on wild populations. Migratory species likely experience seasonal changes in the relative influence of density dependence on population processes such as survival and recruitment throughout the annual cycle. These effects must be accounted for when characterizing migratory populations via population models.To evaluate effects of density on seasonal survival and recruitment of a migratory species, we used an existing full annual cycle model framework for American black ducks Anas rubripes, and tested different density effects (including no effects) on survival and recruitment. We then used a Bayesian model weight updating routine to determine which population model best fit observed breeding population survey data between 1990 and 2014.The models that best fit the survey data suggested that survival and recruitment were affected by density dependence and that density effects were stronger on adult survival during the breeding season than during the non-breeding season.Analysis also suggests that regulation of survival and recruitment by density varied over time. Our results showed that different characterizations of density regulations changed every 8–12 years (three times in the 25-year period) for our population.Synthesis and applications. Using a full annual cycle, modelling framework and model weighting routine will be helpful in evaluating density dependence for migratory species in both the short and long term. We used this method to disentangle the seasonal effects of density on the continental American black duck population which will allow managers to better evaluate the effects of habitat loss and potential habitat management actions throughout the annual cycle. The method here may allow researchers to hone in on the proper form and/or strength of

  18. An empirical model for estimating annual consumption by freshwater fish populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Liao, H.; Pierce, C.L.; Larscheid, J.G.

    2005-01-01

    Population consumption is an important process linking predator populations to their prey resources. Simple tools are needed to enable fisheries managers to estimate population consumption. We assembled 74 individual estimates of annual consumption by freshwater fish populations and their mean annual population size, 41 of which also included estimates of mean annual biomass. The data set included 14 freshwater fish species from 10 different bodies of water. From this data set we developed two simple linear regression models predicting annual population consumption. Log-transformed population size explained 94% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. Log-transformed biomass explained 98% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. We quantified the accuracy of our regressions and three alternative consumption models as the mean percent difference from observed (bioenergetics-derived) estimates in a test data set. Predictions from our population-size regression matched observed consumption estimates poorly (mean percent difference = 222%). Predictions from our biomass regression matched observed consumption reasonably well (mean percent difference = 24%). The biomass regression was superior to an alternative model, similar in complexity, and comparable to two alternative models that were more complex and difficult to apply. Our biomass regression model, log10(consumption) = 0.5442 + 0.9962??log10(biomass), will be a useful tool for fishery managers, enabling them to make reasonably accurate annual population consumption predictions from mean annual biomass estimates. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

  19. Model of annual plants dynamics with facilitation and competition.

    PubMed

    Droz, Michel; Pękalski, Andrzej

    2013-10-21

    An individual-based model describing the dynamics of one type of annual plants is presented. We use Monte Carlo simulations where each plant has its own history and the interactions among plants are between nearest neighbours. The character of the interaction (positive or negative) depends on local conditions. The plants compete for two external resources-water and light. The amount of water and/or light a plant receives depends on the external factor but also on local arrangement. Survival, growth and seed production of plants are determined by how well their demands for the resources are met. The survival and seeds production tests have a probabilistic character, which makes the dynamics more realistic than by using a deterministic approach. There is a non-linear coupling between the external supplies. Water evaporates from the soil at a rate depending on constant evaporation rate, local conditions and the amount of light. We examine the dynamics of the plant population along two environmental gradients, allowing also for surplus of water and/or light. We show that the largest number of plants is when the demands for both resources are equal to the supplies. We estimate also the role of evaporation and we find that it depends on the situation. It could be negative, but sometimes it has a positive character. We show that the link between the type of interaction (positive or negative) and external conditions has a complex character. In general in favourable environment plants have a stronger tendency for competitive interactions, leading to mostly isolated plants. When the conditions are getting more difficult, cooperation becomes the dominant type of interactions and the plants grow in clusters. The type of plants-sun-loving or shade tolerating, plays also an important role.

  20. Evaluating Multiple Imputation Models for the Southern Annual Forest Inventory

    Treesearch

    Gregory A. Reams; Joseph M. McCollum

    1999-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service's Southern Research Station is implementing an annualized forest survey in thirteen states. The sample design is a systematic sample of five interpenetrating grids (panels), where each panel is measured sequentially. For example, panel one information is collected in year one, and panel five in year five. The area representative and time...

  1. Incorporating Results of Avian Toxicity Tests into a Model of Annual Reproductive Success

    EPA Science Inventory

    This manuscript presents a modeling approach for translating results from laboratory avian reproduction tests into an estimate of pesticide-caused change in the annual reproductive success of birds, also known as fecundity rate.

  2. Incorporating Results of Avian Toxicity Tests into a Model of Annual Reproductive Success

    EPA Science Inventory

    This manuscript presents a modeling approach for translating results from laboratory avian reproduction tests into an estimate of pesticide-caused change in the annual reproductive success of birds, also known as fecundity rate.

  3. Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

  4. Comparing an annual and daily time-step model for predicting field-scale phosphorus loss

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Numerous models exist for describing phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural fields. The complexity of these models varies considerably ranging from simple empirically-based annual time-step models to more complex process-based daily time step models. While better accuracy is often assumed with more...

  5. Updating Indiana Annual Forest Inventory and Analysis Plot Data Using Eastern Broadleaf Forest Diameter Growth Models

    Treesearch

    Veronica C. Lessard

    2001-01-01

    The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the North Central Research Station (NCRS), USDA Forest Service, has developed nonlinear, individual-tree, distance-independent annual diameter growth models. The models are calibrated for species groups and formulated as the product of an average diameter growth component and a modifier component. The regional models...

  6. An annual model of SSM/I radiobrightness for dry soil

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liou, Yuei-An; England, A. W.

    1992-01-01

    An annual model is presented of the temperature structure within a homogeneous, dry soil halfspace that is subject to both diurnal and annual insolation, radiant heating from the atmosphere, sensible heat exchange with the atmosphere, and radiant cooling. The thermal constitutive properties of the soil are assumed to be constant so that the heat flow equation can be solved analytically. For computational economy, a variable time interval Laplace transform method is developed to predict the temperature.

  7. Use of Words and Visuals in Modelling Context of Annual Plant

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Jungeun; DiNapoli, Joseph; Mixell, Robert A.; Flores, Alfinio

    2017-01-01

    This study looks at the various verbal and non-verbal representations used in a process of modelling the number of annual plants over time. Analysis focuses on how various representations such as words, diagrams, letters and mathematical equations evolve in the mathematization process of the modelling context. Our results show that (1) visual…

  8. Spatial-temporal models for improved county-level annual estimates

    Treesearch

    Francis Roesch

    2009-01-01

    The consumers of data derived from extensive forest inventories often seek annual estimates at a finer spatial scale than that which the inventory was designed to provide. This paper discusses a few model-based and model-assisted estimators to consider for county level attributes that can be applied when the sample would otherwise be inadequate for producing low-...

  9. Applications of Nonlinear Models. AIR 1984 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Ian; Johnson, F. Craig

    Some of the conceptual qualitative ideas needed to test nonlinear models empirically and to modify them are described. Relationships among these ideas and computer applications are also examined to elucidate the general process of nonlinear modeling. Two examples are presented along with a discussion of bifurcation, catastrophe, and maximum…

  10. Model parameter uncertainty analysis for an annual field-scale P loss model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolster, Carl H.; Vadas, Peter A.; Boykin, Debbie

    2016-08-01

    Phosphorous (P) fate and transport models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. Because all models are simplifications of complex systems, there will exist an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with their predictions. It is therefore important that efforts be directed at identifying, quantifying, and communicating the different sources of model uncertainties. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model. Our analysis included calculating parameter uncertainties and confidence and prediction intervals for five internal regression equations in APLE. We also estimated uncertainties of the model input variables based on values reported in the literature. We then predicted P loss for a suite of fields under different management and climatic conditions while accounting for uncertainties in the model parameters and inputs and compared the relative contributions of these two sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty associated with predictions of P loss. Both the overall magnitude of the prediction uncertainties and the relative contributions of the two sources of uncertainty varied depending on management practices and field characteristics. This was due to differences in the number of model input variables and the uncertainties in the regression equations associated with each P loss pathway. Inspection of the uncertainties in the five regression equations brought attention to a previously unrecognized limitation with the equation used to partition surface-applied fertilizer P between leaching and runoff losses. As a result, an alternate equation was identified that provided similar predictions with much less uncertainty. Our results demonstrate how a thorough uncertainty and model residual analysis can be used to identify limitations with a model. Such insight can then be used to guide future data collection and model

  11. CO2 annual and semiannual cycles from multiple satellite retrievals and models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Xun; Crisp, David; Olsen, Edward T.; Kulawik, Susan S.; Miller, Charles E.; Pagano, Thomas S.; Liang, Maochang; Yung, Yuk L.

    2016-02-01

    Satellite CO2 retrievals from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and in situ measurements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA-ESRL) Surface CO2 and Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) are utilized to explore the CO2 variability at different altitudes. A multiple regression method is used to calculate the CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes from different data sets. The CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes for GOSAT XCO2 and TCCON XCO2 are consistent but smaller than those seen in the NOAA-ESRL surface data. The CO2 annual and semiannual cycles are smallest in the AIRS midtropospheric CO2 compared with other data sets in the Northern Hemisphere. The amplitudes for the CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle from GOSAT, TES, and AIRS CO2 are small and comparable to each other in the Southern Hemisphere. Similar regression analysis is applied to the Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers-2 and CarbonTracker model CO2. The convolved model CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes are similar to those from the satellite CO2 retrievals, although the models tend to underestimate the CO2 seasonal cycle amplitudes in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and underestimate the CO2 semiannual cycle amplitudes in the high latitudes. These results can be used to better understand the vertical structures for the CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle and help identify deficiencies in the models, which are very important for the carbon budget study.

  12. Differences between seasonal and mean annual energy balance model calculations of climate and climate sensitivity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    North, G. R.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.

    1979-01-01

    The paper extends a simple Budyko-Sellers mean annual energy balance climate model with diffusive transport to include a seasonal cycle. In the model the latitudinal distribution of the zonal average surface temperature is represented by Legendre polynomials and its time-dependence by a Fourier sine-cosine series, and it has three parameters adjusted so that the observed amplitudes of the Northern Hemisphere zonal mean surface temperature are recovered. The seasonal model is used to reveal how the annual mean climate and the sensitivity to changes in incident radiation differ from the predictions obtained with the corresponding mean annual model. The distribution of the incident solar radiation in the models is shown to be insensitive to changes in the eccentricity and the longitude of perihelion and sensitive only to changes in the obliquity of the earth, and for past orbital changes both the seasonal and the mean annual model fail to produce glacial advances of the magnitude that are thought to have occurred.

  13. Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    SciTech Connect

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. This report details compliance for model year 2015, fiscal year 2016.

  14. XBeach Annual Report and Mode Description. Modeling of Hurricane Impacts

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-03-01

    lower in height, the seaward dune slope to become smaller, and seaside retreat of the shoreline resulting in barrier narrowing. The model predicts...o Oregon test with overwash. o 2D tests field tests: Cape Hatteras (Isabel), contact persons: Brad Johnson, Abby Sallenger and Florida cases

  15. A Model for Estimating Aircraft Recoverable Spares Annual Costs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-09-01

    Wright- Patterson AFB OH, 15 May 1991. Mattern , Virgenia, Research Fellow. Personal Correspondence providing Historical Common Component Allocation...I AIR UNIVERSITY LR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright- Patterson Air Force’Sase, Ohio 01 2 042 AFIT/GCA/LSQ/91S-10 A MODEL FOR ESTIMATING AIRCRAFT...System Cost Retrieval System (WSCRS) located at Wright- Patterson AFB, Ohio in the analysis. In his study, Mr. Johnson compared the spares obligation

  16. Partnership for Rural Improvement: An Emerging Rural Planning and Development Model. Annual Report 1978-1979.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagood, Richard A.

    Covering 1978-1979, the third annual report of the Partnership for Rural Improvement (PRI) highlights the progress made toward major program objectives and points out certain weaknesses in the model. Section I discusses program rationale, program design, and evaluation research design. Section II summarizes a selection of the major achievements…

  17. EFFECT OF RESIDENCE TIME ON ANNUAL EXPORT AND DENITRIFICATION OF NITROGEN IN ESTUARIES: A MODEL ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A simple model of annual average response of an estuary to mean nitrogen loading rate and freshwater residence time was developed and tested. It uses nitrogen inputs from land, deposition from the atmosphere, and first-order calculations of internal loss rate and export to perfor...

  18. EFFECT OF RESIDENCE TIME ON ANNUAL EXPORT AND DENITRIFICATION OF NITROGEN IN ESTUARIES: A MODEL ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A simple model of annual average response of an estuary to mean nitrogen loading rate and freshwater residence time was developed and tested. It uses nitrogen inputs from land, deposition from the atmosphere, and first-order calculations of internal loss rate and export to perfor...

  19. Partnership for Rural Improvement: An Emerging Rural Planning and Development Model. Annual Report 1978-1979.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagood, Richard A.

    Covering 1978-1979, the third annual report of the Partnership for Rural Improvement (PRI) highlights the progress made toward major program objectives and points out certain weaknesses in the model. Section I discusses program rationale, program design, and evaluation research design. Section II summarizes a selection of the major achievements…

  20. A hybrid model to simulate the annual runoff of the Kaidu River in northwest China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Jianhua; Chen, Yaning; Bai, Ling; Xu, Yiwen

    2016-04-01

    Fluctuant and complicated hydrological processes can result in the uncertainty of runoff forecasting. Thus, it is necessary to apply the multi-method integrated modeling approaches to simulate runoff. Integrating the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), the back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) and the nonlinear regression equation, we put forward a hybrid model to simulate the annual runoff (AR) of the Kaidu River in northwest China. We also validate the simulated effects by using the coefficient of determination (R2) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) based on the observed data from 1960 to 2012 at the Dashankou hydrological station. The average absolute and relative errors show the high simulation accuracy of the hybrid model. R2 and AIC both illustrate that the hybrid model has a much better performance than the single BPANN. The hybrid model and integrated approach elicited by this study can be applied to simulate the annual runoff of similar rivers in northwest China.

  1. Modeling the variability in annual carbon fluxes related to biological soil crusts in a Mediterranean shrubland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilske, B.; Burgheimer, J.; Maseyk, K.; Karnieli, A.; Zaady, E.; Andreae, M. O.; Yakir, D.; Kesselmeier, J.

    2009-07-01

    Biological soil crusts (BSC) constitute a spatially prominent part of the photosynthesizing vegetation in many dryland ecosystems. This study assesses the annual net carbon deposition related to BSC growth in a Mediterranean shrubland for the years 2001-2003 using a model developed to account for the nature of hydration in the poikilohydric life trait of the BSC. Data for BSC-related net CO2 fluxes were obtained from in-situ measurements at the International Long-term Ecological Research site Sayeret Shaked (ILTER-SSK) in the northern Negev Desert, Israel. The BSC was smooth to rugose, up to 15 mm thick and consisted mainly of mosses, cyanobacteria and cyano-lichens. In order to obtain annual estimates, BSC-related CO2 fluxes were correlated with climate records provided by the meteorological station of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring Site network (TEMS) adjacent to SSK. The annual carbon deposition related to BSC growth was assessed from (1) an overall mean of net CO2 flux multiplied with annual activity periods of BSC based on precipitation records, and (2) from a simple precipitation-driven activity model (PdAM). This model combines an algorithm, previously developed to model gas exchange processes in vascular plants, with an empirical module that switches the algorithm on as soon as water is available to maintain activity of poikilohydric BSC. Based on a constant BSC area index of 0.6 m2 m-2 at ILTER-SSK, the final model suggests a large inter-annual variability in BSC-related net carbon deposition ranging from 7 to 51 kg ha-1 yr-1.

  2. A GIS tool for modelling annual diffuse infiltration on a plot scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    España, Salvador; Alcalá, Francisco J.; Vallejos, Ángela; Pulido-Bosch, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    ArcB is a GIS tool for modelling annual diffuse infiltration (RP) from precipitation (P) on a plot scale that uses ArcObjects as the programming language to incorporate equations and boundary conditions for the water-balance consistency. Because detailed weather, soil, and vegetation data are often missing, ArcB uses well-known non-global models such as Hargreaves for daily potential evapotranspiration and Budyko for annual actual evapotranspiration (EA), as well as the SCS Curve Number procedure for 24-h plot runoff (RO). Annual RP is quantified as the difference in annual P, EA, and RO. Because the use of non-global models for EA may induce suboptimal RP results, ArcB allows corrections of EA estimates by comparisons with data from a reference station. In a semiarid heterogeneous region in south-eastern Spain, the uncertainty of RO and RP was lowered to 4% and 2%, respectively, when correcting EA. ArcObjects is a versatile programming language which allows advanced users to incorporate more complex formulations for more accurate results as detailed data is acquired and to develop routines for calibration when reference data exist.

  3. Genome-wide investigation reveals high evolutionary rates in annual model plants

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Rates of molecular evolution vary widely among species. While significant deviations from molecular clock have been found in many taxa, effects of life histories on molecular evolution are not fully understood. In plants, annual/perennial life history traits have long been suspected to influence the evolutionary rates at the molecular level. To date, however, the number of genes investigated on this subject is limited and the conclusions are mixed. To evaluate the possible heterogeneity in evolutionary rates between annual and perennial plants at the genomic level, we investigated 85 nuclear housekeeping genes, 10 non-housekeeping families, and 34 chloroplast genes using the genomic data from model plants including Arabidopsis thaliana and Medicago truncatula for annuals and grape (Vitis vinifera) and popular (Populus trichocarpa) for perennials. Results According to the cross-comparisons among the four species, 74-82% of the nuclear genes and 71-97% of the chloroplast genes suggested higher rates of molecular evolution in the two annuals than those in the two perennials. The significant heterogeneity in evolutionary rate between annuals and perennials was consistently found both in nonsynonymous sites and synonymous sites. While a linear correlation of evolutionary rates in orthologous genes between species was observed in nonsynonymous sites, the correlation was weak or invisible in synonymous sites. This tendency was clearer in nuclear genes than in chloroplast genes, in which the overall evolutionary rate was small. The slope of the regression line was consistently lower than unity, further confirming the higher evolutionary rate in annuals at the genomic level. Conclusions The higher evolutionary rate in annuals than in perennials appears to be a universal phenomenon both in nuclear and chloroplast genomes in the four dicot model plants we investigated. Therefore, such heterogeneity in evolutionary rate should result from factors that have genome

  4. Hydroclimatology of dual-peak annual cholera incidence: Insights from a spatially explicit model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-03-01

    Cholera incidence in some regions of the Indian subcontinent may exhibit two annual peaks although the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (e.g., sea surface temperature, zooplankton abundance, river discharge) peak once per year during the summer. An empirical hydroclimatological explanation relating cholera transmission to river flows and to the disease spatial spreading has been recently proposed. We specifically support and substantiate mechanistically such hypothesis by means of a spatially explicit model of cholera transmission. Our framework directly accounts for the role of a model river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for spatial and temporal annual fluctuations of river flows. The model is forced by seasonal environmental drivers, namely river flow, temperature and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal environment, a proxy for Vibrio cholerae concentration. Our results show that these drivers may suffice to generate dual-peak cholera prevalence patterns for proper combinations of timescales involved in pathogen transport, hydrologic variability and disease unfolding. The model explains the possible occurrence of spatial patterns of cholera incidence characterized by a spring peak confined to coastal areas and a fall peak involving inland regions. Our modeling framework suggests insights on how environmental drivers concert the generation of complex spatiotemporal infections and proposes an explanation for the different cholera patterns (dual or single annual peaks) exhibited by regions that share similar hydroclimatological forcings.

  5. Estimating annual buildings ground floors heat losses using a one-dimensional (1-D) numerical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giakoumakis, Andreas

    In this work, an estimation of the annual buildings ground floors heat losses by means of numerical simulations of two different geometrical models (constructional details of buildings ground floors), using a 1-D numerical model, is attempted. Given the three-dimensional (3-D) nature of the heat transfer through the ground, the annual ground floor heat losses are first estimated using a 3-D model, constructed and simulated with the thermal analysis computer programs: "TRISCO" & "VOLTRA". Then, the 3-D model is converted to the 'respective' one-dimensional (1-D) one and the 'equalization' of the two models - for the both cases (geometrical models) - as far as the annual ground floor heat losses per unit surface area are concerned, is done by changing the values of the various simulation parameters of the used computer programs. Furthermore, since the various simulation tools, such as "TAS" thermal analysis software, generally simulate all heat transfer processes in one dimension - those through the ground floors included - and model the soil depth, in particular, to be: 1m, an estimation of the possibly introduced, in this 'methodology', errors is made, by comparing the respective results derived from the 3-D & 1-D numerical models. As far as the 'equalization' of the 1-D & 3-D numerical models is concerned, the results in question 'revealed' that, the (1-D numerical model's) soil depth, primarily and the soil thermal conductivity (A), secondly, are the most significant simulation parameters for the achievement of this aim. Regarding the errors possibly introduced in the process of estimating the annual buildings ground floor heat losses using a 1-D numerical model (with a soil depth value of: 1m), it is shown that, the size of these errors - for the specific models examined in this work - is approximately: -38% for the first and: +59% for the second one and, furthermore, that, the definition of the 'proper' soil depth value depends on the specific numerical model

  6. CO2 Annual and Semiannual Cycles from Satellite Retrievals and Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, X.; Crisp, D.; Olsen, E. T.; Kulawik, S. S.; Miller, C. E.; Pagano, T. S.; Yung, Y. L.

    2014-12-01

    We have compared satellite CO2 retrievals from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) with in-situ measurements from the Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA-ESRL) Surface CO2 and Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), and utilized zonal means to characterize variability and distribution of CO2. In general, zonally averaged CO2 from the three satellite data sets are consistent with the surface and TCCON XCO2 data. Retrievals of CO2 from the three satellites show more (less) CO2 in the northern hemisphere than that in the southern hemisphere in the northern hemispheric winter (summer) season. The difference between the three satellite CO2 retrievals might be related to the different averaging kernels in the satellites CO2 retrievals. A multiple regression method was used to calculate the CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes from different satellite CO2 retrievals. The CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes are largest at the surface, as seen in the NOAA-ESRL CO2 data sets. The CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes in the GOSAT XCO2, AIRS mid-tropospheric CO2, and TES mid-tropospheric CO2 are smaller compared with those from the surface CO2. Similar regression analysis was applied to the Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers-2 (MOZART-2) and CarbonTracker model CO2. The convolved model CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes are similar to those from the satellite CO2 retrievals, although the model tends to under-estimate the CO2 seasonal cycle amplitudes in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes from the comparison with GOSAT and TES CO2 and underestimate the CO2 semi-annual cycle amplitudes in the high latitudes from the comparison with AIRS CO2. The difference between model and satellite CO2 can be used to identify possible deficiency in the model and improve the model in the future.

  7. Inter-annual variability in CMIP5 models and the mean biases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polo, Irene; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa; Villamayor, Julian

    2017-04-01

    Analysis of model systematic errors in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has generally focused on local processes and particular basins. Mean warm bias over the subtropical upwelling systems in coupled models are largely studied and local cloud cover, alongshore winds and ocean stratification are pointed out as the responsible processes. Mean errors may have impacts on the SST variability but this is less understood. In this study we investigate the relation between mean global bias and how models perform the variability at inter-anual time-scales. In order to understand the relation between bias and variability, we calculate the SST variability modes for the models and associated parameters are confronted with the mean bias among models, thus we conclude how realistic are the models in simulating the variability depending on the mean SST bias. Results suggest that models with cooler (warmer) that average SST mean bias over the southern hemisphere reproduce better (worse) the inter-annual El Nino Pacific variability. Unlike the Pacific, the skill for reproducing the inter-annual Atlantic Nino mode is related to SST over the southern ocean and this is more associated with the proper simulation of the Sta Helena high pressure system than the equatorial Atlantic oceanic thermocline. This work also emphasizes the importance of using the model bias for understanding processes operating in the SST variability.

  8. Analysis for Regression Model Behavior by Sampling Strategy for Annual Pollutant Load Estimation.

    PubMed

    Park, Youn Shik; Engel, Bernie A

    2015-11-01

    Water quality data are typically collected less frequently than streamflow data due to the cost of collection and analysis, and therefore water quality data may need to be estimated for additional days. Regression models are applicable to interpolate water quality data associated with streamflow data and have come to be extensively used, requiring relatively small amounts of data. There is a need to evaluate how well the regression models represent pollutant loads from intermittent water quality data sets. Both the specific regression model and water quality data frequency are important factors in pollutant load estimation. In this study, nine regression models from the Load Estimator (LOADEST) and one regression model from the Web-based Load Interpolation Tool (LOADIN) were evaluated with subsampled water quality data sets from daily measured water quality data sets for N, P, and sediment. Each water quality parameter had different correlations with streamflow, and the subsampled water quality data sets had various proportions of storm samples. The behaviors of the regression models differed not only by water quality parameter but also by proportion of storm samples. The regression models from LOADEST provided accurate and precise annual sediment and P load estimates using the water quality data of 20 to 40% storm samples. LOADIN provided more accurate and precise annual N load estimates than LOADEST. In addition, the results indicate that avoidance of water quality data extrapolation and availability of water quality data from storm events were crucial in annual pollutant load estimation using pollutant regression models. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  9. Hydroclimatology of Dual-Peak Annual Cholera Incidence: Insights from a Spatially Explicit Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-12-01

    Cholera incidence in some regions of the Indian subcontinent may exhibit two annual peaks although the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (e.g. sea surface temperature, zooplankton abundance, river discharge) peak once per year during the summer. An empirical hydroclimatological explanation relating cholera transmission to river flows and to the disease spatial spreading has been recently proposed. We specifically support and substantiate mechanistically such hypothesis by means of a spatially explicit model of cholera transmission. Our framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for spatial and temporal annual fluctuations of precipitation and river flows. To single out the single out the hydroclimatologic controls on the prevalence patterns in a non-specific geographical context, we first apply the model to Optimal Channel Networks as a general model of hydrological networks. Moreover, we impose a uniform distribution of population. The model is forced by seasonal environmental drivers, namely precipitation, temperature and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal environment, a proxy for Vibrio cholerae concentration. Our results show that these drivers may suffice to generate dual-peak cholera prevalence patterns for proper combinations of timescales involved in pathogen transport, hydrologic variability and disease unfolding. The model explains the possible occurrence of spatial patterns of cholera incidence characterized by a spring peak confined to coastal areas and a fall peak involving inland regions. We then proceed applying the model to the specific settings of Bay of Bengal accounting for the actual river networks (derived from digital terrain map manipulations), the proper distribution of population (estimated from downscaling of census data based on remotely sensed features) and precipitation patterns. Overall our

  10. Impact of Pilot Light Modeling on the Predicted Annual Performance of Residential Gas Water Heaters: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Maguire, J.; Burch, J.

    2013-08-01

    Modeling residential water heaters with dynamic simulation models can provide accurate estimates of their annual energy consumption, if the units? characteristics and use conditions are known. Most gas storage water heaters (GSWHs) include a standing pilot light. It is generally assumed that the pilot light energy will help make up standby losses and have no impact on the predicted annual energy consumption. However, that is not always the case. The gas input rate and conversion efficiency of a pilot light for a GSWH were determined from laboratory data. The data were used in simulations of a typical GSWH with and without a pilot light, for two cases: 1) the GSWH is used alone; and 2) the GSWH is the second tank in a solar water heating (SWH) system. The sensitivity of wasted pilot light energy to annual hot water use, climate, and installation location was examined. The GSWH used alone in unconditioned space in a hot climate had a slight increase in energy consumption. The GSWH with a pilot light used as a backup to an SWH used up to 80% more auxiliary energy than one without in hot, sunny locations, from increased tank losses.

  11. Annual and seasonal spatial models for nitrogen oxides in Tehran, Iran

    PubMed Central

    Amini, Heresh; Taghavi-Shahri, Seyed-Mahmood; Henderson, Sarah B.; Hosseini, Vahid; Hassankhany, Hossein; Naderi, Maryam; Ahadi, Solmaz; Schindler, Christian; Künzli, Nino; Yunesian, Masud

    2016-01-01

    Very few land use regression (LUR) models have been developed for megacities in low- and middle-income countries, but such models are needed to facilitate epidemiologic research on air pollution. We developed annual and seasonal LUR models for ambient oxides of nitrogen (NO, NO2, and NOX) in the Middle Eastern city of Tehran, Iran, using 2010 data from 23 fixed monitoring stations. A novel systematic algorithm was developed for spatial modeling. The R2 values for the LUR models ranged from 0.69 to 0.78 for NO, 0.64 to 0.75 for NO2, and 0.61 to 0.79 for NOx. The most predictive variables were: distance to the traffic access control zone; distance to primary schools; green space; official areas; bridges; and slope. The annual average concentrations of all pollutants were high, approaching those reported for megacities in Asia. At 1000 randomly-selected locations the correlations between cooler and warmer season estimates were 0.64 for NO, 0.58 for NOX, and 0.30 for NO2. Seasonal differences in spatial patterns of pollution are likely driven by differences in source contributions and meteorology. These models provide a basis for understanding long-term exposures and chronic health effects of air pollution in Tehran, where such research has been limited. PMID:27622593

  12. Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.

    2010-01-01

    Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.

  13. Annual and seasonal spatial models for nitrogen oxides in Tehran, Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amini, Heresh; Taghavi-Shahri, Seyed-Mahmood; Henderson, Sarah B.; Hosseini, Vahid; Hassankhany, Hossein; Naderi, Maryam; Ahadi, Solmaz; Schindler, Christian; Künzli, Nino; Yunesian, Masud

    2016-09-01

    Very few land use regression (LUR) models have been developed for megacities in low- and middle-income countries, but such models are needed to facilitate epidemiologic research on air pollution. We developed annual and seasonal LUR models for ambient oxides of nitrogen (NO, NO2, and NOX) in the Middle Eastern city of Tehran, Iran, using 2010 data from 23 fixed monitoring stations. A novel systematic algorithm was developed for spatial modeling. The R2 values for the LUR models ranged from 0.69 to 0.78 for NO, 0.64 to 0.75 for NO2, and 0.61 to 0.79 for NOx. The most predictive variables were: distance to the traffic access control zone; distance to primary schools; green space; official areas; bridges; and slope. The annual average concentrations of all pollutants were high, approaching those reported for megacities in Asia. At 1000 randomly-selected locations the correlations between cooler and warmer season estimates were 0.64 for NO, 0.58 for NOX, and 0.30 for NO2. Seasonal differences in spatial patterns of pollution are likely driven by differences in source contributions and meteorology. These models provide a basis for understanding long-term exposures and chronic health effects of air pollution in Tehran, where such research has been limited.

  14. Can We Use Regression Modeling to Quantify Mean Annual Streamflow at a Global-Scale?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbarossa, V.; Huijbregts, M. A. J.; Hendriks, J. A.; Beusen, A.; Clavreul, J.; King, H.; Schipper, A.

    2016-12-01

    Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1,885 catchments worldwide, ranging from 2 to 106 km2 in size. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB [van Beek et al., 2011] by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area, mean annual precipitation and air temperature, average slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error values were lower (0.29 - 0.38 compared to 0.49 - 0.57) and the modified index of agreement was higher (0.80 - 0.83 compared to 0.72 - 0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally at any point of the river network, provided that the input parameters are within the range of values employed in the calibration of the model. The performance is reduced for water scarce regions and further research should focus on improving such an aspect for regression-based global hydrological models.

  15. Developing and testing a global-scale regression model to quantify mean annual streamflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

    2017-01-01

    Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF based on a dataset unprecedented in size, using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1885 catchments worldwide, measuring between 2 and 106 km2. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area and catchment averaged mean annual precipitation and air temperature, slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error (RMSE) values were lower (0.29-0.38 compared to 0.49-0.57) and the modified index of agreement (d) was higher (0.80-0.83 compared to 0.72-0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally to estimate MAF at any point of the river network, thus providing a feasible alternative to spatially explicit process-based global hydrological models.

  16. Using "snapshot" measurements of CH4 fluxes from peatlands to estimate annual budgets: interpolation vs. modelling.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, Sophie M.; Baird, Andy J.

    2016-04-01

    There is growing interest in estimating annual budgets of peatland-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) exchanges. Such budgeting is required for calculating peatland carbon balance and the radiative forcing impact of peatlands on climate. There have been multiple approaches used to estimate CO2 budgets; however, there is a limited literature regarding the modelling of annual CH4 budgets. Using data collected from flux chamber tests in an area of blanket peatland in North Wales, we compared annual estimates of peatland-atmosphere CH4 emissions using an interpolation approach and an additive and multiplicative modelling approach. Flux-chamber measurements represent a snapshot of the conditions on a particular site. In contrast to CO2, most studies that have estimated the time-integrated flux of CH4 have not used models. Typically, linear interpolation is used to estimate CH4 fluxes during the time periods between flux-chamber measurements. It is unclear how much error is involved with such a simple integration method. CH4 fluxes generally show a rise followed by a fall through the growing season that may be captured reasonably well by interpolation, provided there are sufficiently frequent measurements. However, day-to-day and week-to-week variability is also often evident in CH4 flux data, and will not necessarily be properly represented by interpolation. Our fits of the CH4 flux models yielded r2 > 0.5 in 38 of the 48 models constructed, with 55% of these having a weighted rw2 > 0.4. Comparison of annualised CH4 fluxes estimated by interpolation and modelling reveals no correlation between the two data sets; indeed, in some cases even the sign of the flux differs. The difference between the methods seems also to be related to the size of the flux - for modest annual fluxes there is a fairly even scatter of points around the 1:1 line, whereas when the modelled fluxes are high, the corresponding interpolated fluxes tend to be low. We consider the

  17. Model calculating annual mean atmospheric dispersion factor for coastal site of nuclear power plant.

    PubMed

    Hu, E B; Chen, J Y; Yao, R T; Zhang, M S; Gao, Z R; Wang, S X; Jia, P R; Liao, Q L

    2001-07-01

    This paper describes an atmospheric dispersion field experiment performed on the coastal site of nuclear power plant in the east part of China during 1995 to 1996. The three-dimension joint frequency are obtained by hourly observation of wind and temperature on a 100 m high tower; the frequency of the "event day of land and sea breezes" are given by observation of surface wind and land and sea breezes; the diffusion parameters are got from measurements of turbulent and wind tunnel simulation test. A new model calculating the annual mean atmospheric dispersion factor for coastal site of nuclear power plant is developed and established. This model considers not only the effect from mixing release and mixed layer but also the effect from the internal boundary layer and variation of diffusion parameters due to the distance from coast. The comparison between results obtained by the new model and current model shows that the ratio of annual mean atmospheric dispersion factor gained by the new model and the current one is about 2.0.

  18. Global-scale high-resolution ( 1 km) modelling of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark; Hendriks, Jan; Beusen, Arthur; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke

    2017-04-01

    Quantifying mean, maximum and minimum annual flow (AF) of rivers at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. AF metrics can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict AF metrics based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, so far, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. We developed global-scale regression models that quantify mean, maximum and minimum AF as function of catchment area and catchment-averaged slope, elevation, and mean, maximum and minimum annual precipitation and air temperature. We then used these models to obtain global 30 arc-seconds (˜ 1 km) maps of mean, maximum and minimum AF for each year from 1960 through 2015, based on a newly developed hydrologically conditioned digital elevation model. We calibrated our regression models based on observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from about 4,000 catchments worldwide, ranging from 100 to 106 km2 in size, and validated them against independent measurements as well as the output of a number of process-based global hydrological models (GHMs). The variance explained by our regression models ranged up to 90% and the performance of the models compared well with the performance of existing GHMs. Yet, our AF maps provide a level of spatial detail that cannot yet be achieved by current GHMs.

  19. Annual temperature cycle of the tropical tropopause: A simple model study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chae, Jung Hyo; Sherwood, Steven C.

    2007-10-01

    A simple radiative-convective model is used to simulate the annual temperature cycle near the tropical tropopause and lower stratosphere (TTL) region. Seasonally varying residual vertical velocity and ozone variation are imposed, the latter derived from 7 a (1998-2004) of Southern Hemisphere additional ozonesonde (SHADOZ) data. Convection is treated only by eliminating lapse rates greater than 6.5 K/km. An upwelling rate proportional to the extratropical wave driving (midlatitude Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux) is sufficient to explain in detail the annual cycles of TTL temperature above 80 hPa and of tropopause pressure, each maximizing in northern summer and minimizing in northern winter. However, temperatures below 80 hPa lag those predicted, indicating either a delay in upwelling or the influence of tropospheric convection. The annual cycle of ozone in the TTL plays an important role in modulating that of temperature: Without ozone variations, the simulated temperature amplitude at 70 hPa falls from ˜8 K to 5 K, and the maximum temperature occurs in July, 1 month earlier than observed. When the seasonal cycle of ozone is included in the calculation, the amplitude and phase of the temperature cycle come into close agreement with observations. These results support the high-latitude wave-driving hypothesis for explaining tropical upwelling but indicate complicating factors close to the tropopause and an important role for ozone in modulating temperature changes.

  20. A general model of intra-annual tree growth using dendrometer bands

    PubMed Central

    McMahon, Sean M; Parker, Geoffrey G

    2015-01-01

    Tree growth is an important indicator of forest health, productivity, and demography. Knowing precisely how trees' grow within a year, instead of across years, can lead to a finer understanding of the mechanisms that drive these larger patterns. The growing use of dendrometer bands in research forests has only rarely been used to measure growth at resolutions finer than yearly, but intra-annual growth patterns can be observed from dendrometer bands using precision digital calipers and weekly measurements. Here we present a workflow to help forest ecologists fit growth models to intra-annual measurements using standard optimization functions provided by the R platform. We explain our protocol, test uncertainty in parameter estimates with respect to sample sizes, extend the optimization protocol to estimate robust lower and upper annual diameter bounds, and discuss potential challenges to optimal fits. We offer R code to implement this workflow. We found that starting values and initial optimization routines are critical to fitting the best functional forms. After using a bounded, broad search method, a more focused search algorithm obtained consistent results. To estimate starting and ending annual diameters, we combined the growth function with early and late estimates of beginning and ending growth. Once we fit the functions, we present extension algorithms that estimate periodic reductions in growth, total growth, and present a method of controlling for the shifting allocation to girth during the growth season. We demonstrate that with these extensions, an analysis of growth response to weather (e.g., the water available to a tree) can be derived in a way that is comparable across trees, years, and sites. Thus, this approach, when applied across broader data sets, offers a pathway to build inference about the effects of seasonal weather on growth, size- and light-dependent patterns of growth, species-specific patterns, and phenology. PMID:25691954

  1. Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modeling extreme hydrologic events: 2. Regional modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madsen, Henrik; Pearson, Charles P.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-04-01

    Two regional estimation schemes, based on, respectively, partial duration series (PDS) and annual maximum series (AMS), are compared. The PDS model assumes a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution for modeling threshold exceedances corresponding to a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution for annual maxima. First, the accuracy of PDS/GP and AMS/GEV regional index-flood T-year event estimators are compared using Monte Carlo simulations. For estimation in typical regions assuming a realistic degree of heterogeneity, the PDS/GP index-flood model is more efficient. The regional PDS and AMS procedures are subsequently applied to flood records from 48 catchments in New Zealand. To identify homogeneous groupings of catchments, a split-sample regionalization approach based on catchment characteristics is adopted. The defined groups are more homogeneous for PDS data than for AMS data; a two-way grouping based on annual average rainfall is sufficient to attain homogeneity for PDS, whereas a further partitioning is necessary for AMS. In determination of the regional parent distribution using L- moment ratio diagrams, PDS data, in contrast to AMS data, provide an unambiguous interpretation, supporting a GP distribution.

  2. Empirical models of monthly and annual surface albedo in managed boreal forests of Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bright, Ryan M.; Astrup, Rasmus; Strømman, Anders H.

    2013-04-01

    As forest management activities play an increasingly important role in climate change mitigation strategies of Nordic regions such as Norway, Sweden, and Finland -- the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the types and magnitude of biogeophysical climate effects and their various tradeoffs with the global carbon cycle becomes essential to avoid implementation of sub-optimal policy. Forest harvest in these regions reduces the albedo "masking effect" and impacts Earth's radiation budget in opposing ways to that of concomitant carbon cycle perturbations; thus, policies based solely on biogeochemical considerations in these regions risk being counterproductive. There is therefore a need to better understand how human disturbances (i.e., forest management activities) affect important biophysical factors like surface albedo. An 11-year remotely sensed surface albedo dataset coupled with stand-level forest management data for a variety of stands in Norway's most productive logging region are used to develop regression models describing temporal changes in monthly and annual forest albedo following clear-cut harvest disturbance events. Datasets are grouped by dominant tree species and site indices (productivity), and two alternate multiple regression models are developed and tested following a potential plus modifier approach. This resulted in an annual albedo model with statistically significant parameters that explains a large proportion of the observed variation, requiring as few as two predictor variables: i) average stand age - a canopy modifier predictor of albedo, and ii) stand elevation - a local climate predictor of a forest's potential albedo. The same model structure is used to derive monthly albedo models, with models for winter months generally found superior to summer models, and conifer models generally outperforming deciduous. We demonstrate how these statistical models can be applied to routine forest inventory data to predict the albedo

  3. Inter-Annual Variability in Tropical Cirrus Extent Simulated with a Global Chemistry Transport Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Köhler, M. O.; MacKenzie, A. R.; Horseman, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    The extent and variability of cirrus coverage can play an important role for the transport of trace constituents through the tropical tropopause layer into the stratosphere. This is due to direct radiative effects from cirrus clouds, their impact on local water vapour abundances in the UTLS region and due to chemical processes on the surface of ice crystals. We investigate the variability of tropical cirrus cloud coverage over a period of 10 years (2004-2014) and its correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index. We use a global 3D offline chemistry transport model (SLIMCAT-Cirrus), with a parameterization of cirrus clouds formed by homogeneous nucleation. We compare the model's ability to reproduce the inter-annual variability in tropical cirrus extent with remote sensing data from satellites as well as with in-situ observations from the NASA Global Hawk in the Pacific region as part of the ATTREX campaign. Impacts from cirrus on the vertical transport from the troposphere to the stratosphere in the tropics and its inter-annual variability can be diagnosed from the model results.

  4. Upper ocean model of dissolved atmospheric gases. Annual report, 1 August 1991--31 July 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Schudlich, R.; Emerson, S.

    1992-12-31

    The goal of this project is to estimate the rate of biological oxygen production at Hawaiian Ocean Time-series station ALOHA in the central North Pacific ocean. Our approach is to use an upper ocean model together with measurements to interpret an annual cycle of temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, argon, nitrogen, and the stable isotope ratio of oxygen at station ALOHA. This project represents the first upper ocean geochemical study in which model predictions are verifiable by independent measurements. Using the model, we will be able to assess the relative roles played by physical processes (air-sea gas exchange, air injection by bubbles, temperature-induced changes in gas solubility, trapping below the mixed layer, and diffusion) and biological processes (photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrient recycling) in producing the observed distribution of dissolved atmospheric gases. The long term goal of this project is to understand the utility of chemical tracers for quantifying biological processes in the ocean.

  5. Assessment of radiative feedback in climate models using satellite observations of annual flux variation

    PubMed Central

    Tsushima, Yoko; Manabe, Syukuro

    2013-01-01

    In the climate system, two types of radiative feedback are in operation. The feedback of the first kind involves the radiative damping of the vertically uniform temperature perturbation of the troposphere and Earth’s surface that approximately follows the Stefan–Boltzmann law of blackbody radiation. The second kind involves the change in the vertical lapse rate of temperature, water vapor, and clouds in the troposphere and albedo of the Earth’s surface. Using satellite observations of the annual variation of the outgoing flux of longwave radiation and that of reflected solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, this study estimates the so-called “gain factor,” which characterizes the strength of radiative feedback of the second kind that operates on the annually varying, global-scale perturbation of temperature at the Earth’s surface. The gain factor is computed not only for all sky but also for clear sky. The gain factor of so-called “cloud radiative forcing” is then computed as the difference between the two. The gain factors thus obtained are compared with those obtained from 35 models that were used for the fourth and fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Here, we show that the gain factors obtained from satellite observations of cloud radiative forcing are effective for identifying systematic biases of the feedback processes that control the sensitivity of simulated climate, providing useful information for validating and improving a climate model. PMID:23613585

  6. Assessment of radiative feedback in climate models using satellite observations of annual flux variation.

    PubMed

    Tsushima, Yoko; Manabe, Syukuro

    2013-05-07

    In the climate system, two types of radiative feedback are in operation. The feedback of the first kind involves the radiative damping of the vertically uniform temperature perturbation of the troposphere and Earth's surface that approximately follows the Stefan-Boltzmann law of blackbody radiation. The second kind involves the change in the vertical lapse rate of temperature, water vapor, and clouds in the troposphere and albedo of the Earth's surface. Using satellite observations of the annual variation of the outgoing flux of longwave radiation and that of reflected solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, this study estimates the so-called "gain factor," which characterizes the strength of radiative feedback of the second kind that operates on the annually varying, global-scale perturbation of temperature at the Earth's surface. The gain factor is computed not only for all sky but also for clear sky. The gain factor of so-called "cloud radiative forcing" is then computed as the difference between the two. The gain factors thus obtained are compared with those obtained from 35 models that were used for the fourth and fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Here, we show that the gain factors obtained from satellite observations of cloud radiative forcing are effective for identifying systematic biases of the feedback processes that control the sensitivity of simulated climate, providing useful information for validating and improving a climate model.

  7. Importance of the Annual Cycles of SST and Solar Irradiance for Circulation and Rainfall: A Climate Model Simulation Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sud, Yogesh C.; Lau, William K. M.; Walker, G. K.; Mehta, V. M.

    2001-01-01

    Annual cycle of climate and precipitation is related to annual cycle of sunshine and sea-surface temperatures. Understanding its behavior is important for the welfare of humans worldwide. For example, failure of Asian monsoons can cause widespread famine and grave economic disaster in the subtropical regions. For centuries meteorologists have struggled to understand the importance of the summer sunshine and associated heating and the annual cycle of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on rainfall in the subtropics. Because the solar income is pretty steady from year to year, while SSTs depict large interannual variability as consequence of the variability of ocean dynamics, the influence of SSTs on the monsoons are better understood through observational and modeling studies whereas the relationship of annual rainfall to sunshine remains elusive. However, using NASA's state of the art climate model(s) that can generate realistic climate in a computer simulation, one can answer such questions. We asked the question: if there was no annual cycle of the sunshine (and its associated land-heating) or the SST and its associated influence on global circulation, what will happen to the annual cycle of monsoon rains? By comparing the simulation of a 4-year integration of a baseline Control case with two parallel anomaly experiments: 1) with annual mean solar and 2) with annual mean sea-surface temperatures, we were able to draw the following conclusions: (1) Tropical convergence zone and rainfall which moves with the Sun into the northern and southern hemispheres, specifically over the Indian, African, South American and Australian regions, is strongly modulated by the annual cycles of SSTs as well as solar forcings. The influence of the annual cycle of solar heating over land, however, is much stronger than the corresponding SST influence for almost all regions, particularly the subtropics; (2) The seasonal circulation patterns over the vast land-masses of the Northern

  8. NAPAP Emissions Inventory (Version 2): Development of the annual data and modelers' tapes, 1985. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Saeger, M.; Langstaff, J.; Walters, R.; Modica, L.; Zimmerman, D.

    1989-11-01

    The report documents the development of the 1985 NAPAP Modelers' Emissions Inventory, Version 2. The inventory includes emissions estimates of air pollutants that play a key role in the formation of acidic deposition. Emissions estimates from all of the major anthropogenic sources of acid deposition precursors in the U.S. and Canada for the base year 1985 are included in the inventory. Natural sources of particulate matter are also included. The inventory emissions total approximately 27.2 million tons per year (tpy) of SO2, 22.6 million tpy of NOx, and 24.5 million tpy of VOC. The report discusses the data collection and quality assurance activities associated with the development of both the annual emissions inventory and an inventory that has been resolved into an hourly, gridded, and speciated format suitable for use in atmospheric modeling. The file formats and file structure of the inventory data are also described.

  9. Latent risk and trend models for the evolution of annual fatality numbers in 30 European countries.

    PubMed

    Dupont, Emmanuelle; Commandeur, Jacques J F; Lassarre, Sylvain; Bijleveld, Frits; Martensen, Heike; Antoniou, Constantinos; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Hermans, Elke; Pérez, Katherine; Santamariña-Rubio, Elena; Usami, Davide Shingo; Giustiniani, Gabriele

    2014-10-01

    In this paper a unified methodology is presented for the modelling of the evolution of road safety in 30 European countries. For each country, annual data of the best available exposure indicator and of the number of fatalities were simultaneously analysed with the bivariate latent risk time series model. This model is based on the assumption that the amount of exposure and the number of fatalities are intrinsically related. It captures the dynamic evolution in the fatalities as the product of the dynamic evolution in two latent trends: the trend in the fatality risk and the trend in the exposure to that risk. Before applying the latent risk model to the different countries it was first investigated and tested whether the exposure indicator at hand and the fatalities in each country were in fact related at all. If they were, the latent risk model was applied to that country; if not, a univariate local linear trend model was applied to the fatalities series only, unless the latent risk time series model was found to yield better forecasts than the univariate local linear trend model. In either case, the temporal structure of the unobserved components of the optimal model was established, and structural breaks in the trends related to external events were identified and captured by adding intervention variables to the appropriate components of the model. As a final step, for each country the optimally modelled developments were projected into the future, thus yielding forecasts for the number of fatalities up to and including 2020. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle and a continent model intercomparison project: TRACMIP: TRACMIP

    SciTech Connect

    Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; Bader, Jürgen; Bordoni, Simona; Codron, Francis; Dixon, Ross D.; Jonas, Jeffrey; Kang, Sarah M.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Leung, Ruby; Lu, Jian; Mapes, Brian; Maroon, Elizabeth A.; McDermid, Sonali; Park, Jong-yeon; Roehrig, Romain; Russell, Gary L.; Seo, Jeongbin; Toniazzo, Thomas; Wei, Ho-Hsuan; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Vargas Zeppetello, Lucas R.

    2016-12-02

    This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change, including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. This survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.

  11. The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle and a continent model intercomparison project: TRACMIP

    SciTech Connect

    Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; Bader, Jürgen; Bordoni, Simona; Codron, Francis; Dixon, Ross D.; Jonas, Jeffrey; Kang, Sarah M.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Leung, Ruby; Lu, Jian; Mapes, Brian; Maroon, Elizabeth A.; McDermid, Sonali; Park, Jong -yeon; Roehrig, Romain; Rose, Brian E. J.; Russell, Gary L.; Seo, Jeongbin; Toniazzo, Thomas; Wei, Ho -Hsuan; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Vargas Zeppetello, Lucas R.

    2016-11-16

    This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change, including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.

  12. The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle and a continent model intercomparison project: TRACMIP

    DOE PAGES

    Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; ...

    2016-11-16

    This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change,more » including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.« less

  13. Projections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Dalal, Mamta; Pattnayak, R. K.

    2017-05-01

    Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand brings together 21% of the world population. Thus the impact of climate change in this region is a major concern for all. To study the climate change, fifth phase of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been used to project the climate for the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 over the BIMSTEC countries for the period 1901 to 2100 (initial 105 years are historical period and the later 95 years are projected period). Climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the historical period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall has been compared with observations from multiple sources and temperature has been compared with the data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) during the historical period. Comparison reveals that ensemble mean of the models is able to represent the observed spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over the BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, data from these models may be used to study the future changes in the 21st century. Four out of six models show that the rainfall over India, Thailand and Myanmar has decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka show an increasing trend in both the RCP scenarios. In case of temperature, all the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both the scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. The rate of increase/decrease in rainfall and temperature are relatively more in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 over all these countries. Inter-model comparison show that there are uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections. More similar studies are required to be done for better understanding the model uncertainties in climate projections over this region.

  14. Computational model for armor penetration. Annual report No. 3, October 1980-April 1983

    SciTech Connect

    Erlich, D.C.; Seaman, L.; Cooper, T.; Caligiuri, R.D.; Curran, D.R.

    1987-10-01

    This is the first volume of a two-volume series comprising the third annual report for the program Computational Model for Armor Penetration. The objective of the program was to develop a phenomenologically sound material-disintegration model for computationally simulating armor penetration by projectile impact. The model would provide the capability to predict the ballistic limit and downrange fragment size and velocity distributions and would eventually be used by the DoD for armor and penetrator design. The materials studied in the program were 4340 steel and depleted uranium alloy, (DU) for the penetrators, and rolled homogeneous armor (RHA) for the target. This Volume reports on the experimental and analytical work performed during the third year to conclude the development of a computational model, SHEAR3, that describes the dominant material failure and fragmentation process (adiabatic shear banding) responsible for long-rod penetrator erosion and thick armor plate plugging and fragmentation. Volume 1 also describes application of SHEAR3 with the Lagrangian wave propagation code C-HEMP to computationally simulate penetration of armor plate by normally impacting long rods both near the ballistic limit and at higher velocities sufficient to produce significant back-of-the-armor fragmentation.

  15. The Annual Glaciohydrology Cycle in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Part 2. Observed and Modeled Ice Flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colgan, William Terence; Rajaram, Harihar; Anderson, Robert S.; Steffen, Konrad; Zwally, H. Jay; Phillips, Thomas; Abdalati, Waleed

    2012-01-01

    Ice velocities observed in 2005/06 at three GPS stations along the Sermeq Avannarleq flowline, West Greenland, are used to characterize an observed annual velocity cycle. We attempt to reproduce this annual ice velocity cycle using a 1-D ice-flow model with longitudinal stresses coupled to a 1-D hydrology model that governs an empirical basal sliding rule. Seasonal basal sliding velocity is parameterized as a perturbation of prescribed winter sliding velocity that is proportional to the rate of change of glacier water storage. The coupled model reproduces the broad features of the annual basal sliding cycle observed along this flowline, namely a summer speed-up event followed by a fall slowdown event. We also evaluate the hypothesis that the observed annual velocity cycle is due to the annual calving cycle at the terminus. We demonstrate that the ice acceleration due to a catastrophic calving event takes an order of magnitude longer to reach CU/ETH ('Swiss') Camp (46km upstream of the terminus) than is observed. The seasonal acceleration observed at Swiss Camp is therefore unlikely to be the result of velocity perturbations propagated upstream via longitudinal coupling. Instead we interpret this velocity cycle to reflect the local history of glacier water balance.

  16. Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

    2015-04-01

    Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between global climate models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) data sets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty for monthly precipitation and temperature projections and to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. We adopt stochastic replicates of available GCM runs to approximate within-GCM uncertainty because large ensembles, hundreds of runs, for a given GCM and scenario are unavailable, other than the Climateprediction.net data set for the Hadley Centre GCM. To date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2015) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from

  17. Quantitative reconstructions of annual rainfall in Africa 6000 years ago: Model-data comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peyron, Odile; Jolly, Dominique; Braconnot, Pascale; Bonnefille, Raymonde; Guiot, JoëL.; Wirrmann, Denis; Chalié, FrançOise

    2006-12-01

    This paper provides the first set of quantitative reconstructions of annual precipitation for mid-Holocene Africa, based on pollen data. The estimates of precipitation are based on 85 pollen sites 14C dated at 6000 ± 500 years B.P and distributed over the whole of Africa. To improve the reliability of the pollen-based climate reconstruction, two methods are used: the "modern analogues technique" (MAT) and the "plant functional types" (PFT) methods. We then conduct a model-data comparison for five distinct regions, allowing an evaluation of model outputs (the Sahara-Sahel, the eastern Sahara, western equatorial Africa, East Africa, and Madagascar). The pollen-inferred reconstructions are compared with 21 mid-Holocene simulations yielded by Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs), and coupled ocean-atmosphere-vegetation models (OAVGCMs). The large-scale feature of the hydrological changes is shown to be well captured by most of the models. Data show that during the mid-Holocene, the Sahara was considerably wetter than today (+200 to +700 mm/yr). The results reinforce the conclusion that the AGCMs significantly underestimate this precipitation increase in the Sahara whereas the OAVGCM simulations are in accordance with the data. Our results show that vegetation and ocean feedbacks do not have a strong impact in the intertropical zone and that models fail to properly reproduce the climatic conditions in East Africa and Madagascar. The model-data comparison also suggests that the lengthening of the dry season during boreal winter in the west equatorial region is a robust feature although the pollen-based reconstruction shows no change or only slight drying there.

  18. Comprehensive Model of Annual Plankton Succession Based on the Whole-Plankton Time Series Approach

    PubMed Central

    Romagnan, Jean-Baptiste; Legendre, Louis; Guidi, Lionel; Jamet, Jean-Louis; Jamet, Dominique; Mousseau, Laure; Pedrotti, Maria-Luiza; Picheral, Marc; Gorsky, Gabriel; Sardet, Christian; Stemmann, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Ecological succession provides a widely accepted description of seasonal changes in phytoplankton and mesozooplankton assemblages in the natural environment, but concurrent changes in smaller (i.e. microbes) and larger (i.e. macroplankton) organisms are not included in the model because plankton ranging from bacteria to jellies are seldom sampled and analyzed simultaneously. Here we studied, for the first time in the aquatic literature, the succession of marine plankton in the whole-plankton assemblage that spanned 5 orders of magnitude in size from microbes to macroplankton predators (not including fish or fish larvae, for which no consistent data were available). Samples were collected in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea (Bay of Villefranche) weekly during 10 months. Simultaneously collected samples were analyzed by flow cytometry, inverse microscopy, FlowCam, and ZooScan. The whole-plankton assemblage underwent sharp reorganizations that corresponded to bottom-up events of vertical mixing in the water-column, and its development was top-down controlled by large gelatinous filter feeders and predators. Based on the results provided by our novel whole-plankton assemblage approach, we propose a new comprehensive conceptual model of the annual plankton succession (i.e. whole plankton model) characterized by both stepwise stacking of four broad trophic communities from early spring through summer, which is a new concept, and progressive replacement of ecological plankton categories within the different trophic communities, as recognised traditionally. PMID:25780912

  19. The annual cycle of stratospheric water vapor in a general circulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mote, Philip W.

    1995-01-01

    The application of general circulation models (GCM's) to stratospheric chemistry and transport both permits and requires a thorough investigation of stratospheric water vapor. The National Center for Atmospheric Research has redesigned its GCM, the Community Climate Model (CCM2), to enable studies of the chemistry and transport of tracers including water vapor; the importance of water vapor to the climate and chemistry of the stratosphere requires that it be better understood in the atmosphere and well represented in the model. In this study, methane is carried as a tracer and converted to water; this simple chemistry provides an adequate representation of the upper stratospheric water vapor source. The cold temperature bias in the winter polar stratosphere, which the CCM2 shares with other GCM's, produces excessive dehydration in the southern hemisphere, but this dry bias can be ameliorated by setting a minimum vapor pressure. The CCM2's water vapor distribution and seasonality compare favorably with observations in many respects, though seasonal variations including the upper stratospheric semiannual oscillation are generally too small. Southern polar dehydration affects midlatitude water vapor mixing ratios by a few tenths of a part per million, mostly after the demise of the vortex. The annual cycle of water vapor in the tropical and northern midlatitude lower stratosphere is dominated by drying at the tropical tropopause. Water vapor has a longer adjustment time than methane and had not reached equilibrium at the end of the 9 years simulated here.

  20. Comprehensive model of annual plankton succession based on the whole-plankton time series approach.

    PubMed

    Romagnan, Jean-Baptiste; Legendre, Louis; Guidi, Lionel; Jamet, Jean-Louis; Jamet, Dominique; Mousseau, Laure; Pedrotti, Maria-Luiza; Picheral, Marc; Gorsky, Gabriel; Sardet, Christian; Stemmann, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Ecological succession provides a widely accepted description of seasonal changes in phytoplankton and mesozooplankton assemblages in the natural environment, but concurrent changes in smaller (i.e. microbes) and larger (i.e. macroplankton) organisms are not included in the model because plankton ranging from bacteria to jellies are seldom sampled and analyzed simultaneously. Here we studied, for the first time in the aquatic literature, the succession of marine plankton in the whole-plankton assemblage that spanned 5 orders of magnitude in size from microbes to macroplankton predators (not including fish or fish larvae, for which no consistent data were available). Samples were collected in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea (Bay of Villefranche) weekly during 10 months. Simultaneously collected samples were analyzed by flow cytometry, inverse microscopy, FlowCam, and ZooScan. The whole-plankton assemblage underwent sharp reorganizations that corresponded to bottom-up events of vertical mixing in the water-column, and its development was top-down controlled by large gelatinous filter feeders and predators. Based on the results provided by our novel whole-plankton assemblage approach, we propose a new comprehensive conceptual model of the annual plankton succession (i.e. whole plankton model) characterized by both stepwise stacking of four broad trophic communities from early spring through summer, which is a new concept, and progressive replacement of ecological plankton categories within the different trophic communities, as recognised traditionally.

  1. Modeling the Observed QBO and Inter-Annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.; Huang, F. T.

    2006-01-01

    In the current version of the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW) from Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). The model does not have topography, and the planetary waves are solely generated by instabilities. We discuss a 3D modeling study that describes the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, where the oscillation produces significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. The numerical results are compared with temperature measurements from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) instruments obtained by Huang et al. (2006). With a GW source that peaks at the Equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 26 months and zonal wind amplitudes of almost 25 m/s at 30 km. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. The modeled QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, the relative importance of the advection terms are discussed, and they are shown to be important in the stratosphere. At altitudes above 80 km, however, the QBO-related inter-annual variations of the tide are generated primarily by GW momentum deposition. In qualitative agreement with the SABER measurements, the model generates distinct zonal-mean QBO temperature variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the stratosphere, the computed amplitudes are not much smaller than those observed, and the rate of downward propagation at the Equator is reproduced. The modeled temperature amplitudes in the mesosphere, however, are much smaller than those observed. The observed and computed temperature variations of the QBO peak at the Equator but extend with phase reversals to high latitudes, in contrast to the zonal winds that are

  2. ModABa Model: Annual Flow Duration Curves Assessment in Ephemeral Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pumo, Dario; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

    2013-04-01

    A representation of the streamflow regime for a river basin is required for a variety of hydrological analyses and engineering applications, from the water resource allocation and utilization to the environmental flow management. The flow duration curve (FDC) represents a comprehensive signature of temporal runoff variability often used to synthesize catchment rainfall-runoff responses. Several models aimed to the theoretical reconstruction of the FDC have been recently developed under different approaches, and a relevant scientific knowledge specific to this topic has been already acquired. In this work, a new model for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in perennial and ephemeral catchments is introduced. The ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in intermittent BAsins) can be thought as a wide mosaic whose tesserae are frameworks, models or conceptual schemes separately developed in different recent studies. Such tesserae are harmoniously placed and interconnected, concurring together towards a unique final aim that is the reproduction of the FDC of daily streamflows in a river basin. Two separated periods within the year are firstly identified: a non-zero period, typically characterized by significant streamflows, and a dry period, that, in the cases of ephemeral basins, is the period typically characterized by absence of streamflow. The proportion of time the river is dry, providing an estimation of the probability of zero flow occurring, is empirically estimated. Then, an analysis concerning the non-zero period is performed, considering the streamflow disaggregated into a slow subsuperficial component and a fast superficial component. A recent analytical model is adopted to derive the non zero FDC relative to the subsuperficial component; this last is considered to be generated by the soil water excess over the field capacity in the permeable portion of the basin. The non zero FDC relative to the fast

  3. Modeling the Observed QBO and Inter-Annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.; Huang, F. T.

    2006-01-01

    In the current version of the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW) from Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). The model does not have topography, and the planetary waves are solely generated by instabilities. We discuss a 3D modeling study that describes the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, where the oscillation produces significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. The numerical results are compared with temperature measurements from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) instruments obtained by Huang et al. (2006). With a GW source that peaks at the Equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 26 months and zonal wind amplitudes of almost 25 m/s at 30 km. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. The modeled QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, the relative importance of the advection terms are discussed, and they are shown to be important in the stratosphere. At altitudes above 80 km, however, the QBO-related inter-annual variations of the tide are generated primarily by GW momentum deposition. In qualitative agreement with the SABER measurements, the model generates distinct zonal-mean QBO temperature variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the stratosphere, the computed amplitudes are not much smaller than those observed, and the rate of downward propagation at the Equator is reproduced. The modeled temperature amplitudes in the mesosphere, however, are much smaller than those observed. The observed and computed temperature variations of the QBO peak at the Equator but extend with phase reversals to high latitudes, in contrast to the zonal winds that are

  4. Turnaround Management Strategies: The Adaptive Model and the Constructive Model. ASHE 1983 Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chaffee, Ellen E.

    The use of two management strategies by 14 liberal arts and comprehensive colleges attempting to recover from serious financial decline during 1973-1976 were studied. The adaptive model of strategy, based on resource dependence, involves managing demands in order to satisfy critical-resource providers. The constructive model of strategy, based on…

  5. Model parameter uncertainty analysis for annual field-scale P loss model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Phosphorous (P) loss models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. All P loss models, however, have an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with them. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with ...

  6. Model parameter uncertainty analysis for an annual field-scale phosphorus loss model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Phosphorous (P) loss models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. All P loss models, however, have an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with them. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with ...

  7. Modeling of clouds and radiation for developing parameterizations for general circulation models. Annual report, 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Toon, O.B.; Westphal, D.L.

    1996-07-01

    We have used a hierarchy of numerical models for cirrus and stratus clouds and for radiative transfer to improve the reliability of general circulation models. Our detailed cloud microphysical model includes all of the physical processes believed to control the lifecycles of liquid and ice clouds in the troposphere. We have worked on specific GCM parameterizations for the radiative properties of cirrus clouds, making use of a mesocale model as the test-bed for the parameterizations. We have also modeled cirrus cloud properties with a detailed cloud physics model to better understand how the radiatively important properties of cirrus are controlled by their environment. We have used another cloud microphysics model to investigate of the interactions between aerosols and clouds. This work is some of the first to follow the details of interactions between aerosols and cloud droplets and has shown some unexpected relations between clouds and aerosols. We have also used line-by- line radiative transfer results verified with ARM data, to derive a GCMS.

  8. Evaluating long-term annual sediment yield estimating potential of GIS interfaced MUSLE model on two micro-watersheds.

    PubMed

    Arekhi, Saleh

    2008-01-15

    Use of an event scale MUSLE model for obtaining accurate long-term annual sediment yield estimates from micro-watersheds was evaluated. Such estimates are extremely important for designing appropriate soil/water conserving measures. For easy extraction and inputting of model input parameters, the proposed model was interfaced to an Arc-View/Spatial Analyst geographic information system. Application of this GIS interfaced MUSLE model on two gauged (pine and oak forest) hilly micro-watersheds viz., Salla Rautella (0.47 km2) and Naula (0.42 km2), in Almora district of Uttaranchal, India showed that it could estimate annual sediment yields with absolute mean relative errors ranging between 12-14%. Even long-term average sediment yields for Salla Rautella (observed: 9.58 tons and estimated: 10.92 tons) and Naula: (Observed: 23.89 tons and estimated: 26.61 tons) micro-watersheds could be quite realistically simulated by the proposed model.

  9. Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models: Annual Progress Report for Fiscal Year 2004

    SciTech Connect

    Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Fellows, Robert J.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Valenta, Michelle M.; Gilmore, Tyler J.

    2004-12-02

    This Annual Progress Report describes the work performed and summarizes some of the key observations to date on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report describes activities undertaken to collect samples of soils from three regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and perform analyses to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Section 3 summarizes information gathered regarding agricultural practices and common and unusual crops grown in each of these three areas. Section 4 describes progress in studying radionuclide uptake in several representative crops from the three soil types in controlled laboratory conditions. Section 5 describes a range of international coordination activities undertaken by Project staff in order to support the underlying data needs of the Project. Section 6 provides a very brief summary of the status of the GENII Version 2 computer program, which is a “client” of the types of data being generated by the Project, and for which the Project will be providing training to the US NRC staff in the coming Fiscal Year. Several appendices provide additional supporting information.

  10. 8th Annual Glycoscience Symposium: Integrating Models of Plant Cell Wall Structure, Biosynthesis and Assembly

    SciTech Connect

    Azadi, Paratoo

    2015-09-24

    The Complex Carbohydrate Research Center (CCRC) of the University of Georgia holds a symposium yearly that highlights a broad range of carbohydrate research topics. The 8th Annual Georgia Glycoscience Symposium entitled “Integrating Models of Plant Cell Wall Structure, Biosynthesis and Assembly” was held on April 7, 2014 at the CCRC. The focus of symposium was on the role of glycans in plant cell wall structure and synthesis. The goal was to have world leaders in conjunction with graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and research scientists to propose the newest plant cell wall models. The symposium program closely followed the DOE’s mission and was specifically designed to highlight chemical and biochemical structures and processes important for the formation and modification of renewable plant cell walls which serve as the basis for biomaterial and biofuels. The symposium was attended by both senior investigators in the field as well as students including a total attendance of 103, which included 80 faculty/research scientists, 11 graduate students and 12 Postdoctoral students.

  11. Modeling of clouds and radiation for developing parameterizations for general circulation models. Annual report, 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1994-12-31

    We are using a hierarchy of numerical models of cirrus and stratus clouds and radiative transfer to improve the reliability of general circulation models. Our detailed cloud microphysical model includes all of the physical processes believed to control the lifecycle of liquid and ice clouds in the troposphere. In our one-dimensional cirrus studies, we find that the ice crystal number and size in cirrus clouds are not very sensitive to the number of condensation nuclei which are present. We have compared our three-dimensional meoscale simulations of cirrus clouds with radar, lidar satellite and other observations of water vapor and cloud fields and find that the model accurately predicts the characteristics of a cirrus cloud system. The model results reproduce several features detected by remote sensing (lidar and radar) measurements, including the appearance of the high cirrus cloud at about 15 UTC and the thickening of the cloud at 20 UTC. We have developed a new parameterizations for production of ice crystals based on the detailed one-dimensional cloud model, and are presently testing the parameterization in three-dimensional simulations of the FIRE-II November 26 case study. We have analyzed NWS radiosonde humidity data from FIRE and ARM and found errors, biases, and uncertainties in the conversion of the sensed resistance to humidity.

  12. The ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) and monthly and inter annual regional forecasting.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lovejoy, S.; Del Rio Amador, L.; Sloman, L.

    2015-12-01

    By exploiting the sensitive dependence on initial conditions, GCM's can generate a statistical ensemble of future states in which the high frequency "weather" is treated as a driving noise. Following Hasselman, 1976, this has lead to stochastic models that directly generate the noise, and model the low frequencies using systems of integer ordered linear ordinary differential equations, the most well known are the linear inverse models (LIM). These have been presented as a benchmark for decadal surface temperature forecast. Using the LIM, hindcast skills comparable to and sometimes even better than the skill of (coupled) Global Circulation Models (GCM's) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Nevertheless, the short range exponential temporal decorrelations implicit in the LIM models are unrealistic (the true decorrelations are closer to long range power laws), and - as a consequence - the useful limit to the forecast horizon is roughly one year: it enormously underestimates the memory of the system. In presentation, we make a scaling analogue of the LIM: ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) that exploits the power law (scaling) behavior in time of the temperature field and consequently, make use of the long history dependence of the data to improve the skill. The results predicted analytically by the model have been tested by performing actual hindcasts in different 5º x 5º regions on the planet using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis as a reference datasets. As a first step, we removed the anthropogenic component of each time series based on its sensitivity to equivalent CO2 concentration for the last 130 years, the residues are our estimates of the natural variability that SLIMM predicts. This residues were treated as fractional Gaussian noise processes with scaling exponent H between -0.5 and 0. The value of H for each grid-point can be obtained directly from the data. We report maps of theoretical skill predicted by the model and we

  13. Inter-annual climate variability and productivity models for grapevines in Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinho, M.; Santos, J. A.; Malheiro, A. C.; Pinto, J. G.

    2009-09-01

    Grapevines are a major crop in Portugal, constituting an important source of income for local farmers. The Mediterranean type climate of the country strongly influences the growth and development of this crop, and ultimately the yield. Therefore, for several (9) Portuguese regions over 19 years (1986-2004), the inter-annual variability of grapevine productivity and climate data (mostly temperature and precipitation on a monthly basis) was analyzed in order to define mathematical models based on statistically significant correlations between those variables. One particular region (Vila Real, close to Demarcated Valley of Douro) was studied in more detail using the daily data available. For that purpose, a number of derived indices was calculated (e.g., number of days with positive minimum air temperature or maximum temperature above 25°C, number of days with precipitation higher than 10 mm). Close relationships between temperature, precipitation and relative air humidity were then found to influence productivity. In fact, a high-quality mathematical linear model based on these variables was found for Vila Real. Those analyses also enabled the verification of monthly climatic conditions, which are or not favorable for growth and development of grapevines; results indicate a clear relationship between the vegetative cycle of grapevines and their basic climatic requirements. After validation, this model may be used for predicting future yields in the region and, using data from an atmospheric model, it was also possible to project a future scenario for the productivity in the period (2030-2050), based on an specific emission scenario (A1B). Lastly, in order to isolate the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns most favorable/unfavorable to wine productivity, years with extremely high (e.g., 1989) and extremely low yields (e.g., 1987) were selected and the corresponding dynamical conditions were analyzed in more detail.

  14. Quantifying uncertainty in modelled estimates of annual maximum precipitation: confidence intervals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Economou, Polychronis; Caroni, Chrys

    2016-04-01

    The possible nonstationarity of the GEV distribution fitted to annual maximum precipitation under climate change is a topic of active investigation. Of particular significance is how best to construct confidence intervals for items of interest arising from stationary/nonstationary GEV models.We are usually not only interested in parameter estimates but also in quantiles of the GEV distribution and it might be expected that estimates of extreme upper quantiles are far from being normally distributed even for moderate sample sizes.Therefore, we consider constructing confidence intervals for all quantities of interest by bootstrap methods based on resampling techniques. To this end, we examined three bootstrapping approaches to constructing confidence intervals for parameters and quantiles: random-t resampling, fixed-t resampling and the parametric bootstrap. Each approach was used in combination with the normal approximation method, percentile method, basic bootstrap method and bias-corrected method for constructing confidence intervals. We found that all the confidence intervals for the stationary model parameters have similar coverage and mean length. Confidence intervals for the more extreme quantiles tend to become very wide for all bootstrap methods. For nonstationary GEV models with linear time dependence of location or log-linear time dependence of scale, confidence interval coverage probabilities are reasonably accurate for the parameters. For the extreme percentiles, the bias-corrected and accelerated method is best overall, and the fixed-t method also has good average coverage probabilities. Reference: Panagoulia D., Economou P. and Caroni C., Stationary and non-stationary GEV modeling of extreme precipitation over a mountainous area under climate change, Environmetrics, 25 (1), 29-43, 2014.

  15. Assessment of an atmospheric transport model for annual inverse estimates of California greenhouse gas emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagley, Justin E.; Jeong, Seongeun; Cui, Xinguang; Newman, Sally; Zhang, Jingsong; Priest, Chad; Campos-Pineda, Mixtli; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Bianco, Laura; Lloyd, Matthew; Lareau, Neil; Clements, Craig; Fischer, Marc L.

    2017-02-01

    Atmospheric inverse estimates of gas emissions depend on transport model predictions, hence driving a need to assess uncertainties in the transport model. In this study we assess the uncertainty in WRF-STILT (Weather Research and Forecasting and Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport) model predictions using a combination of meteorological and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements. WRF configurations were selected to minimize meteorological biases using meteorological measurements of winds and boundary layer depths from surface stations and radar wind profiler sites across California. We compare model predictions with CO measurements from four tower sites in California from June 2013 through May 2014 to assess the seasonal biases and random errors in predicted CO mixing ratios. In general, the seasonal mean biases in boundary layer wind speed (< 0.5 m/s), direction (< 15°), and boundary layer height (< 200 m) were small. However, random errors were large ( 1.5-3.0 m/s for wind speed, 40-60° for wind direction, and 300-500 m for boundary layer height). Regression analysis of predicted and measured CO yielded near-unity slopes (i.e., within 1.0 ± 0.20) for the majority of sites and seasons, though a subset of sites and seasons exhibit larger ( 30%) uncertainty, particularly when weak winds combined with complex terrain in the South Central Valley of California. Looking across sites and seasons, these results suggest that WRF-STILT simulations are sufficient to estimate emissions of CO to up to 15% on annual time scales across California.

  16. Model parameter uncertainty analysis for an annual field-scale phosphorus loss model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Technical abstract: Agriculture can be a significant source of P loading to surface waters which can lead to water quality deterioration of P-sensitive water bodies. To mitigate the effects of agricultural activities on water quality, models are often used to assess the effectiveness of various cons...

  17. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue transmission: a multi-level modeling analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Hsin

    2017-04-01

    Dengue fever is one of potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has confirmed that dengue incidence is sensitive to the critical weather conditions, such as effects of temperature. However, previous literature focused on the effects of monthly or weekly average temperature or accumulative precipitation on dengue incidence. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue outbreak is under investigated. The purpose of the study focuses on measuring the effect of the intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation on dengue outbreaks. We developed the indices of intra-annual temperature variability are maximum continuity, intermittent, and accumulation of most suitable temperature (MST) for dengue vectors; and also the indices of intra-annual precipitation variability, including the measure of continuity of wetness or dryness during a pre-epidemic period; and rainfall intensity during an epidemic period. We used multi-level modeling to investigate the intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015. Our results indicate that accumulation and maximum continuity of MST are more significant than average temperature on dengue outbreaks. The effect of continuity of wetness during the pre-epidemic period is significantly more positive on promoting dengue outbreaks than the rainfall effect during the epidemic period. Meanwhile, extremely high or low rainfall density during an epidemic period do not promote the spread of dengue epidemics. Our study differentiates the effects of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks and also provides policy implications for further dengue control under the threats of climate change. Keywords: dengue fever, meteorological variations, multi-level model

  18. Role of asymmetry in competition for light in a model of annual plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Droz, Michel; Pȩkalski, Andrzej

    2012-02-01

    We propose and discuss a model describing dynamics of annual plants competing with their nearest neighbours for sunlight. The effect of the competition determines the size, or equivalently, the biomass of each plant and the number of seeds it produces. At the end of a period (year) plants distribute their seeds over the sites in the Moore neighbourhood and then die. They leave their biomass in the form of litter, which hinders germination of the seeds. We show that the dynamical behaviour depends crucially on two parameters-litter reduction rate and the plants' growth rate. Larger litter reduction rate and smaller growth rate lead to the population of few plants, producing more biomass than when more smaller plants are present and the litter reduction rate is low and growth rate is high. We show that asymmetry in the competition, which could favour bigger plants, have rather weak effect on the dynamical behaviour. The distribution of the biomass depends on the asymmetry. When larger plants receive much more sunlight than the smaller ones, the latter are quite often eliminated from the neighbourhood. For weaker asymmetry smaller plants could survive, producing however less biomass than the larger plants.

  19. Process-based distributed hydrological modelling of annual floods in the Upper Zambezi using the Desert Flood Index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meinhardt, Markus; Sven, Kralisch; Manfred, Fink; Daniel, Butchart-Kuhlmann; Anthony, Chabala; Melanie, Fleischer; Jörg, Helmschrot; Wilson, Phiri; Tina, Trautmann; Henry, Zimba; Imasiku, Nyambe

    2016-04-01

    Wetland areas are especially sensitive to changes in hydrological conditions. The catchment of the Luanginga River, a tributary of the Upper Zambezi which covers about 33000 km², shows this characteristic in an exemplary way. Ranging from the Angolan highlands to the Barotse floodplain of the Zambezi River , it is characterized by an annual flow regime and extensive wetland areas. Due to its annual flooding with peak times in April, the area features exceptionally fertile soils with high agricultural production and is further known for its rich cultural heritage, making it especially sensitive to changes of hydrological conditions . To identify possible changes related to projected climate and land management change, especially in the area of the floodplain, there is a need to apply a process-based distributed hydrological model of the annual floods . Remote sensing techniques have shown to be appropriate to identify the extend of the important flooding and were used to validate the model in space and time. The results of this research can be used as a basis with which to provide evidence-based advice and information for all decision-makers and stakeholders in the region. For this assessment , such a modelling approach is applied to adequately represent hydrological processes and to address key water resources management issues at sub-basin levels. Introducing a wetland simulation extension, the model allows to represent the annual flood regime of the system and thus to address the effect of climate change and upstream land use changes on flow regimes in the downstream watershed. In order to provide a basis for model validation and calibration, the inundated area was determined using the Desert Flood Index (DFI), which was generated from a time series of Landsat images. We will give a short introduction to the study area and related water resources management problems, present the intended model structure and show first simulations and model validation results

  20. Uncertainty analysis of a spatially-explicit annual water-balance model: case study of the Cape Fear catchment, NC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamel, P.; Guswa, A. J.

    2014-10-01

    There is an increasing demand for assessment of water provisioning ecosystem services. While simple models with low data and expertise requirements are attractive, their use as decision-aid tools should be supported by uncertainty characterization. We assessed the performance of the InVEST annual water yield model, a popular tool for ecosystem service assessment based on the Budyko framework. Our study involved the comparison of ten subcatchments in the Cape Fear watershed, NC, ranging in size and land use configuration. We analyzed the model sensitivity to the eco-hydrological parameters and the effect of extrapolating a lumped theory to a fully distributed model. Comparison of the model predictions with observations and with a lumped water balance model confirmed that the model is able to represent differences in land uses. Our results also emphasize the effect of climate input errors, especially annual precipitation, and errors in the eco-hydrological parameter Z, which are both comparable to the model structure uncertainties. In practice, our case study supports the use of the model for predicting land use change effect on water provisioning, although its use for identifying areas of high water yield will be influenced by precipitation errors. While the results are inherently local, analysis of the model structure suggests that many insights from this study will hold globally. Further work toward characterization of uncertainties in such simple models will help identify the regions and decision contexts where the model predictions may be used with confidence.

  1. Assessment of mean annual flood damage using simple hydraulic modeling and Monte Carlo simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oubennaceur, K.; Agili, H.; Chokmani, K.; Poulin, J.; Marceau, P.

    2016-12-01

    Floods are the most frequent and the most damaging natural disaster in Canada. The issue of assessing and managing the risk related to this disaster has become increasingly crucial for both local and national authorities. Brigham, a municipality located in southern Quebec Province, is one of the heavily affected regions by this disaster because of frequent overflows of the Yamaska River reaching two to three times per year. Since Irene Hurricane which struck the region in 2011, causing considerable socio-economic damage, the implementation of mitigation measures has become a major priority for this municipality. To do this, a preliminary study to evaluate the risk to which this region is exposed is essential. Conventionally, approaches only based on the characterization of the hazard (e.g. floodplains extensive, flood depth) are generally adopted to study the risk of flooding. In order to improve the knowledge of this risk, a Monte Carlo simulation approach combining information on the hazard with vulnerability-related aspects has been developed. This approach integrates three main components: (1) hydrologic modelling aiming to establish a probability-discharge function which associate each measured discharge to its probability of occurrence (2) hydraulic modeling that aims to establish the relationship between the discharge and the water stage at each building (3) damage study that aims to assess the buildings damage using damage functions. The damage is estimated according to the water depth defined as the difference between the water level and the elevation of the building's first floor. The application of the proposed approach allows estimating the annual average cost of damage caused by floods on buildings. The obtained results will be useful for authorities to support their decisions on risk management and prevention against this disaster.

  2. Ecological Controls on Net Ecosystem Productivity of a Seasonally Dry Annual Grassland under Current and Future Climates: Modelling with Ecosys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, R.

    2012-04-01

    Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of seasonally dry grasslands in Mediterranean climate zones is determined by the duration and intensity of rainy vs. dry seasons. Precipitation in these zones is expected to decline with climate change during the next century, possibly reducing NEP. Ecosystem models used to study climate change impacts on grasslands in these zones need first to simulate effects of soil wetting and drying on the duration and intensity of net C uptake and emission during rainy and dry seasons under current climate. Continuous eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CO2 and energy exchange provide well constrained tests of such models. In this study, hourly CO2 and energy exchange from the ecosystem model ecosys were tested against EC measurements recorded over an annual grassland at Vaira Ranch, CA in a Mediterranean climate zone during eight years (2001 - 2008) with variable rainy seasons. Variation in measured CO2 and latent heat fluxes was sufficiently well simulated during each year of the study (0.7 < R2 < 0.9) that most of the variation unexplained by the model could be attributed to uncertainty in the measurements. Interannual variation in NEP from the model was also correlated with that from EC measurements (R2 = 0.75). Annual NEP from both the model and EC were correlated with the duration of net C uptake, but not with the amount of precipitation, during the rainy seasons. Average annual NEP of the grassland modelled from 2001 to 2008 was 29 g C m-2 y-1 with an interannual variation of ± 110 g C m-2 y-1 caused by that in the duration of net C uptake. During climate change (SRES A1fi and B1 under HadCM3), changes in modelled NEP were determined by changes in duration and intensity of net C uptake in rainy seasons vs. net C emission in dry seasons. In years with briefer rainy seasons, modelled NEP rose because rates of net C uptake increased with higher temperature and CO2 concentration, while the duration of net C uptake remained limited by that

  3. Modeling Inter-annual Variability of Seasonal Evaporation and Storage Change Based on the Extended Budyko Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Alimohammadi, N.; Wang, D.

    2013-12-01

    Long-term climate is the first order control on mean annual water balance, and vegetation and the interactions between climate seasonality and soil water storage change have also been found to play important roles. The purpose of this paper is to extend the Budyko hypothesis to the seasonal scale and to develop a model for inter-annual variability of seasonal evaporation and storage change. A seasonal aridity index is defined as the ratio of potential evaporation to effective precipitation, where effective precipitation is the difference between rainfall and storage change. Correspondingly, evaporation ratio is defined as the ratio of evaporation to effective precipitation. A modified Turc-Pike equation with a horizontal shift is proposed to model inter-annual variability of seasonal evaporation ratio as a function of seasonal aridity index, which includes rainfall seasonality and soil water change. The performance of the seasonal water balance model is evaluated for 277 watersheds in the United States. 99% of wet seasons and 90% of dry seasons have Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients larger than 0.5. The developed seasonal model can be applied for constructing long-term evaporation and storage change data when rainfall, potential evaporation, and runoff observations are available. On the other hand, vegetation affects seasonal water balance by controlling both evaporation and soil moisture dynamics. The correlation between NDVI and evaporation is strong particularly in wet seasons. However, the correlation between NDVI and the seasonal model parameters is only strong in dry seasons.

  4. Annual Medicago: From a Model Crop Challenged by a Spectrum of Necrotrophic Pathogens to a Model Plant to Explore the Nature of Disease Resistance

    PubMed Central

    TIVOLI, B.; BARANGER, A.; SIVASITHAMPARAM, K.; BARBETTI, M. J.

    2006-01-01

    • Background Annual Medicago spp., including M. truncatula, play an important agronomic role in dryland farming regions of the world where they are often an integral component of cropping systems, particularly in regions with a Mediterranean or Mediterranean-type climate where they grow as winter annuals that provide both nitrogen and disease breaks for rotational crops. Necrotrophic foliar and soil-borne pathogens dominate these regions and challenge the productivity of annual Medicago and crop legume species. • Scope This review outlines some of the major and/or widespread diseases these necrotrophic pathogens cause on Medicago spp. It then explores the potential for using the spectrum of necrotrophic pathogen–host interactions, with annual Medicago as the host plant, to better understand and model pathosystems within the diseases caused by nectrotrophic pathogens across forage and grain legume crops. • Conclusions Host resistance clearly offers the best strategy for cost-effective, long-term control of necrotrophic foliar and soil-borne pathogens, particularly as useful resistance to a number of these diseases has been identified. Recently and initially, the annual M. truncatula has emerged as a more appropriate and agronomically relevant substitute to Arabidopsis thaliana as a model plant for legumes, and is proving an excellent model to understand the mechanisms of resistance both to individual pathogens and more generally to most forage and grain legume necrotrophic pathogens. PMID:16803846

  5. CEREF: A hybrid data-driven model for forecasting annual streamflow from a socio-hydrological system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Hongbo; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yinghao

    2016-09-01

    Hydrological forecasting is complicated by flow regime alterations in a coupled socio-hydrologic system, encountering increasingly non-stationary, nonlinear and irregular changes, which make decision support difficult for future water resources management. Currently, many hybrid data-driven models, based on the decomposition-prediction-reconstruction principle, have been developed to improve the ability to make predictions of annual streamflow. However, there exist many problems that require further investigation, the chief among which is the direction of trend components decomposed from annual streamflow series and is always difficult to ascertain. In this paper, a hybrid data-driven model was proposed to capture this issue, which combined empirical mode decomposition (EMD), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and external forces (EF) variable, also called the CEREF model. The hybrid model employed EMD for decomposition and RBFNN for intrinsic mode function (IMF) forecasting, and determined future trend component directions by regression with EF as basin water demand representing the social component in the socio-hydrologic system. The Wuding River basin was considered for the case study, and two standard statistical measures, root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), were used to evaluate the performance of CEREF model and compare with other models: the autoregressive (AR), RBFNN and EMD-RBFNN. Results indicated that the CEREF model had lower RMSE and MAE statistics, 42.8% and 7.6%, respectively, than did other models, and provided a superior alternative for forecasting annual runoff in the Wuding River basin. Moreover, the CEREF model can enlarge the effective intervals of streamflow forecasting compared to the EMD-RBFNN model by introducing the water demand planned by the government department to improve long-term prediction accuracy. In addition, we considered the high-frequency component, a frequent subject of concern in EMD

  6. Uncertainty analysis of a spatially explicit annual water-balance model: case study of the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamel, P.; Guswa, A. J.

    2015-02-01

    There is an increasing demand for assessment of water provisioning ecosystem services. While simple models with low data and expertise requirements are attractive, their use as decision-aid tools should be supported by uncertainty characterization. We assessed the performance of the InVEST annual water yield model, a popular tool for ecosystem service assessment based on the Budyko hydrological framework. Our study involved the comparison of 10 subcatchments ranging in size and land-use configuration, in the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina. We analyzed the model sensitivity to climate variables and input parameters, and the structural error associated with the use of the Budyko framework, a lumped (catchment-scale) model theory, in a spatially explicit way. Comparison of model predictions with observations and with the lumped model predictions confirmed that the InVEST model is able to represent differences in land uses and therefore in the spatial distribution of water provisioning services. Our results emphasize the effect of climate input errors, especially annual precipitation, and errors in the ecohydrological parameter Z, which are both comparable to the model structure uncertainties. Our case study supports the use of the model for predicting land-use change effect on water provisioning, although its use for identifying areas of high water yield will be influenced by precipitation errors. While some results are context-specific, our study provides general insights and methods to help identify the regions and decision contexts where the model predictions may be used with confidence.

  7. Annual nutrients export modelling by analysis of landuse and topographic information: case of a small Mediterranean catchment.

    PubMed

    Payraudeau, S; Tournoud, M G; Cernesson, F; Picot, B

    2001-01-01

    The preservation of water bodies from eutrophication implies accurate estimation of phosphorus and nitrogen loads and the control of nutrient production on a catchment scale. In this paper, a simple tool for the modelling of annual nutrient loads is presented. It is implemented in ARC/INFO GIS using Arc Macro Language (AML). The use of a GIS is justified as the spatial characteristics of the catchment area (land use, industrial wastewater location) dictate water quality. The annual nutrient loads are worked out on the catchment scale, using existing GIS routines together with specific routines developed in AML for hydrological and water quality modelling purposes. The catchment area is divided into hydrological subcatchments with relatively homogeneous spatial characteristics. Each subcatchment is linked to a specific nutrient export potential. These nutrient loads, calculated on a subcatchment-by-subcatchment basis, are conveyed to the outlet of the catchment and allow annual nutrient load estimation. A comparison with a water monitoring study is conducted to verify the adequation of modelling results for phosphorus and nitrogen loads.

  8. A single-substrate model to interpret high-resolution intra-annual stable isotope signals in tree ring cellulose

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogée, J.; Barbour, M. M.; Dewar, R. C.; Wingate, L.; Bert, D.; Bosc, A.; Lambrot, C.; Stievenard, M.; Bariac, T.; Berbigier, P.; Loustau, D.

    2007-12-01

    High-resolution measurements of the carbon and oxygen stable isotope composition of cellulose in annual tree rings (δ13Ccellulose and δ18Ocellulose, respectively) reveal well-defined seasonal patterns that could contain valuable records of past climate and tree function. Interpreting these signals is nonetheless complex because they not only record the signature of current assimilates, but also depend on carbon allocation dynamics within the trees. Here, we will present a single-substrate model for wood growth in order to interpret qualitatively and quantitatively these seasonal isotopic signals. We will also show how this model can relate to more complex models of phloem transport and cambial activity. The model will then be tested against an isotopic intra-annual chronology collected on a Pinus pinaster tree equipped with point dendrometers and growing on a Carboeurope site where climate, soil and flux variables are also monitored. The empirical δ13Ccellulose and δ18Ocellulose signals exhibit dynamic seasonal patterns with clear differences between years, which makes it suitable for model testing. We will show how our simple model of carbohydrate reserves, forced by sap flow and eddy covariance measurements, enables us to interpret these seasonal and inter-annual patterns. Finally, we will present a sensitivity analysis of the model, showing how gas-exchange parameters, carbon and water pool sizes or wood maturation times affect these isotopic signals. Acknowledgements: this study benefited from the CarboEurope-IP Bray site facilities and was funded by the French INSU programme Eclipse, with an additional support from the INRA department EFPA.

  9. Geographically Isolated Wetlands and Hydrologic Connectivity: Quantifying Seasonal and Annual Downstream Effects using a Hybrid Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golden, H. E.; Sander, H. A.; Lane, C.; Zhao, C.; Price, K.; D'Amico, E.; Christensen, J.

    2014-12-01

    Geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs) are distinguishable as depressional landscape features that are entirely surrounded by uplands. This nomenclature does not necessarily imply functional isolation because these systems may exhibit a gradient of hydrologic, biological, or chemical connections to other surface waters. In this study, we examine the influence of GIWs on streamflow, a potential indicator of GIW hydrologic connectivity with surface waters. Our method involves the Spatial Stream Network (SSN) model, which considers spatial autocorrelation of model covariates explicitly, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which predicts streamflow across a network of 579 subbasins in the lower Neuse River Basin, North Carolina, USA. Our study results suggest that GIWs influence streamflow, though the effect is limited. The farther GIWs are from a stream, the greater their capacity to increase streamflow due to the physiographic setting and hypothesized connectivity, transit times and sequencing of watershed hydrologic connectivity in the study area across seasonal and annual scales. However, as the combined extent of GIWs and non-GIWs increases in subbasins, seasonal and annual streamflow decreases. Results also suggest that other landscape indicators of watershed-scale hydrology, when coupled with wetland features on the landscape, explain variations in seasonal and annual simulated streamflow. Our study findings begin to elucidate the aggregate influence of GIWs on streamflow, providing insights for future decision-making on GIW protection and management.

  10. The application of a Poisson model to the annual distribution of daily mortality at six Montreal hospitals.

    PubMed Central

    Zweig, J P; Csank, J Z

    1978-01-01

    The daily distributions of annual mortality for varying numbers of years between 1965 and 1975 were investigated in three geriatric hospitals and three general hospitals in the Montreal area. Nearly all the observed mortality distributions were found to mimic the classical Poisson distribution, with little departure. In two of the larger hospitals, the matching of the daily mortality distributions with their Poisson models met stringent statistical criteria. In one of them it was even possible to predict the expected mortality frequencies merely from a knowledge of the annual totals. The remaining four hospitals, which included the three geriatric institutions, also exhibited mortalities regarded as highly suggestive of Poisson distributions, although in one of the geriatric hospitals the mortality distribution tended to be somewhat erratic in this respect. PMID:711981

  11. A simple, single-substrate model to interpret intra-annual stable isotope signals in tree-ring cellulose

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogée, J.; Barbour, M. M.; Wingate, L.; Bert, D.; Bosc, A.; Stievenard, M.; Lambrot, C.; Pierre, M.; Bariac, T.; Dewar, R. C.

    2009-04-01

    High-resolution intra-annual measurements of the carbon and oxygen stable isotope composition of cellulose in annual tree rings (δ13Ccellulose and δ18Ocellulose, respectively) reveal well-defined seasonal patterns that could contain valuable records of past climate and tree function. Interpreting these signals is nonetheless complex because they not only record the signature of current assimilates, but also depend on carbon allocation dynamics within the trees. Here, we present a simple, single-substrate model for wood growth containing only 12 main parameters. The model is used to interpret an isotopic intra-annual chronology collected in an even-aged maritime pine plantation growing in the South-West of France, where climate, soil and flux variables were also monitored. The empirical δ13Ccellulose and δ18Ocellulose exhibit dynamic seasonal patterns, with clear differences between years and individuals, that are mostly captured by the model. In particular, the amplitude of both signals is reproduced satisfactorily as well as the sharp 18O enrichment at the beginning of 1997 and the less pronounced 13C and 18O depletion observed at the end of the latewood. Our results suggest that the single-substrate hypothesis is a good approximation for tree ring studies on Pinus pinaster, at least for the environmental conditions covered by this study. A sensitivity analysis revealed that, in the early wood, the model was particularly sensitive to the date when cell wall thickening begins (twt). We therefore propose to use the model to reconstruct time series of twt and explore how climate influences this key parameter of xylogenesis.

  12. Non-stationary Annual Maximum Flood Frequency Analysis using a Conceptual Hydrologic Model with Time-varying Parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, L.; Xiong, L.

    2016-12-01

    Recent evidences of the impact of natural variation in the climatic system as well as the potential influence of human activities on the hydrological cycle have made the assumption of stationarity widely questioned. In this study, we explore the possibility of deriving frequency distributions of extreme discharges considering non-stationarity by continuous simulation. Two approaches to non-stationary modeling in rainfall-runoff model GR4J were applied to annual maximum flood records of the Weihe River Basin (WRB), China. In the first approach, the parameter in GR4J describing the catchment storage was treated as a function of time only, while in the second one the specific parameter was regarded as a function of the climatic factors (annual mean temperature) and socio-economic factors (reservoir storage and water-soil conservation land area). The results of both approaches show a better performance in simulating runoff progress, especially the annual maximum flow series than the stationary GR4J model. It is demonstrated that, within the prescribed limits, the modified GR4J models can adequately achieve both flood frequency and continuous simulation modeling goals. Finally, the application of the non-stationary analysis shows the presence of apparent non-stationarities in the flow regime and that the differences between the stationary and non-stationary quantiles may be significant over a long period of time. This study can serve as a reference for regional planning and management of water resources in the WRB, and possibly for other river basins on the globe under massive influences of human activities and climate change.

  13. Temperature and precipitation in the context of the annual cycle over Asia: Model evaluation and future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moon, Suyeon; Ha, Kyung-Ja

    2017-05-01

    Since the early or late arrival of monsoon rainfall can be devastating to agriculture and economy, the prediction of the onset of monsoon is a very important issue. The Asian monsoon is characterized by a strong annual cycle with rainy summer and dry winter. Nevertheless, most of monsoon studies have focused on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation. The present study aims to evaluate a total of 27 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for projection of the time evolution and the intensity of Asian monsoon on the basis of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. And future changes of onset, retreat, and intensity of monsoon are analyzed. Four models for good seasonal-mean (GSM) and good harmonic (GH) groups, respectively, are selected. GSM is based on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter, and GH is based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation which represents a characteristic of the monsoon. To compare how well the time evolution of the monsoon is simulated in each group, the onset, retreat, and duration of Asian monsoon are examined. The highest pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of onset, retreat, and duration between the reanalysis data and model outputs demonstrates that GH models' MME predicts time evolution of monsoon most precisely, with PCC values of 0.80, 0.52, and 0.63, respectively. To predict future changes of the monsoon, the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2073-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from CMIP5 using GH models' MME. The Asian monsoon domain is expanded by 22.6% in the future projection. The onset date in the future is advanced over most parts of Asian monsoon region. The duration of summer Asian monsoon in the future projection will be lengthened by up to 2 pentads over the Asian monsoon region, as a result of advanced

  14. Modelling coastal connectivity in a Western Boundary Current: Seasonal and inter-annual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roughan, Moninya; Macdonald, Helen S.; Baird, Mark E.; Glasby, Tim M.

    2011-03-01

    Understanding the transport and distribution of marine larvae by ocean currents is one of the key goals of population ecology. Here we investigate circulation in the East Australian Current (EAC) and its impact on the transport of larvae and coastal connectivity. A series of Lagrangian particle trajectory experiments are conducted in summer and winter from 1992-2006 which enables us to investigate seasonal and inter-annual variability. We also estimate a mean connectivity state from the average of each of the individual realisations. Connectivity patterns are related to the movement of five individual larval species (two tropical, two temperate and one invasive species) and are found to be in qualitative agreement with historical distribution patterns found along the coast of SE Australia. We use a configuration of the Princeton Ocean Model to investigate physical processes in the ocean along the coast of SE Australia where the circulation is dominated by the EAC, a vigorous western boundary current. We assimilate hydrographic fields from a ˜10-km global analysis into a ˜3-km resolution continental shelf model to create a high-resolution hindcast of ocean state for each summer and winter from 1992-2006. Particles are released along the coast of SE Australia, and at various isobaths across the shelf (25-1000 m) over timescales ranging from 10-90 days. Upstream of the EAC separation point across-shelf release location dominates the particle trajectory length scales, whereas seasonality dominates in the southern half of the domain, downstream of the separation point. Lagrangian probability density functions show dispersion pathways vary with release latitude, distance offshore and the timescale of dispersion. Northern (southern) release sites are typified by maximum (minimum) dispersal pathways. Offshore release distance also plays a role having the greatest impact at the mid-latitude release sites. Maximum alongshore dispersion occurs at the mid-latitude release

  15. Modelling of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia based on annual maximum and partial duration series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2015-02-01

    In this study, two series of data for extreme rainfall events are generated based on Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Methods, derived from 102 rain-gauge stations in Peninsular from 1982-2012. To determine the optimal threshold for each station, several requirements must be satisfied and Adapted Hill estimator is employed for this purpose. A semi-parametric bootstrap is then used to estimate the mean square error (MSE) of the estimator at each threshold and the optimal threshold is selected based on the smallest MSE. The mean annual frequency is also checked to ensure that it lies in the range of one to five and the resulting data is also de-clustered to ensure independence. The two data series are then fitted to Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions for annual maximum and partial duration series, respectively. The parameter estimation methods used are the Maximum Likelihood and the L-moment methods. Two goodness of fit tests are then used to evaluate the best-fitted distribution. The results showed that the Partial Duration series with Generalized Pareto distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation provides the best representation for extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia for majority of the stations studied. Based on these findings, several return values are also derived and spatial mapping are constructed to identify the distribution characteristic of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia.

  16. A simple-harmonic model for depicting the annual cycle of seasonal temperatures of streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steele, Timothy Doak

    1978-01-01

    Due to economic or operational constraints, stream-temperature records cannot always be collected at all sites where information is desired or at frequencies dictated by continuous or near-continuous surveillance requirements. For streams where only periodic measurements are made during the year, and that are not appreciably affected by regulation or by thermal loading , a simple harmonic function may adequately depict the annual seasonal cycle of stream temperature at any given site. Resultant harmonic coefficients obtained from available stream-temperature records may be used in the following ways: (1) To interpolate between discrete measurements by solving the harmonic function at specified times, thereby filling in estimates of stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature conditions; and (3) to detect and to assess any significant at a site brought about by streamflow regulation or basin development. Moreover, less-than-daily or sampling frequencies at a given site may give estimates of annual variation of stream temperatures that are statistically comparable to estimates obtained from a daily or continuous sampling scheme. The latter procedure may result in potential savings of resources in network operations, with negligible loss in information on annual stream-temperature variations. (Woodard -USGS)

  17. Water balance model for mean annual hydrogen and oxygen isotope distributions in surface waters of the contiguous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowen, Gabriel J.; Kennedy, Casey D.; Liu, Zhongfang; Stalker, Jeremy

    2011-12-01

    The stable H and O isotope composition of river and stream water records information on runoff sources and land-atmosphere water fluxes within the catchment and is a potentially powerful tool for network-based monitoring of ecohydrological systems. Process-based hydrological models, however, have thus far shown limited power to replicate observed large-scale variation in U.S. surface water isotope ratios. Here we develop a geographic information system-based model to predict long-term annual average surface water isotope ratios across the contiguous United States. We use elevation-explicit, gridded precipitation isotope maps as model input and data from a U.S. Geological Survey monitoring program for validation. We find that models incorporating monthly variation in precipitation-evapotranspiration (P-E) amounts account for the majority (>89%) of isotopic variation and have reduced regional bias relative to models that do not consider intra-annual P-E effects on catchment water balance. Residuals from the water balance model exhibit strong spatial patterning and correlations that suggest model residuals isolate additional hydrological signal. We use interpolated model residuals to generate optimized prediction maps for U.S. surface water δ2H and δ18O values. We show that the modeled surface water values represent a relatively accurate and unbiased proxy for drinking water isotope ratios across the United States, making these data products useful in ecological and criminal forensics applications that require estimates of the local environmental water isotope variation across large geographic regions.

  18. Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

    PubMed

    Basso, Bruno; Hyndman, David W; Kendall, Anthony D; Grace, Peter R; Robertson, G Philip

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability.

  19. Modelling spatial, altitudinal and temporal variability of annual precipitation in mountainous regions: The case of the Middle Zagros, Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saeidabadi, Rashid; Najafi, Mohammed S.; Roshan, GholamReza; Fitchett, Jennifer M.; Abkharabat, Shoaieb

    2016-11-01

    Relationships between precipitation and elevation are difficult to model for mountainous regions, due to complexities in topography and moisture sources. Attempts to model these relationships need to be tested against long-term location specific meteorological data, and hence require a case-study approach. This study uses artificial neural networks to model these relationships for the Middle of Zagros region, in semi-arid western Iran. Precipitation data for the region were collected for 1995-2007. Annual precipitation was designated as the target variable for the network, which additionally included variables significantly related to precipitation for the region, including longitude, latitude, elevation, slope, distance from the ridge, and relative distance from moisture. Long-term changes in annual precipitation for the region are investigated for 1961-2010. The artificial neural network (ANN) model explains 76% of the spatial variability of precipitation in the Middle Zagros. Precipitation predominantly increases with elevation on the windward slope, to a maximum height of 2500 m.asl, and thereafter either remains constant or decreases slowly to the ridge. Precipitation in the region has decreased significantly over the study period, with fluctuations driven by AO, NAO, ENSO and variability in the strength of pressure centers. Spectral analysis reveals significant oscillations of 2-4 and 5 yr periods, which correspond temporally with cycles in macro-scale circulation, ENSO and the Mediterranean Low pressure.

  20. Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

    PubMed Central

    Basso, Bruno; Hyndman, David W.; Kendall, Anthony D.; Grace, Peter R.; Robertson, G. Philip

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability. PMID:26043188

  1. Reconstructing annual groundwater storage changes in a large-scale irrigation region using GRACE data and Budyko model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Yin; Hooshyar, Milad; Zhu, Tingju; Ringler, Claudia; Sun, Alexander Y.; Long, Di; Wang, Dingbao

    2017-08-01

    A two-parameter annual water balance model was developed for reconstructing annual terrestrial water storage change (ΔTWS) and groundwater storage change (ΔGWS). The model was integrated with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and applied to the Punjab province in Pakistan for reconstructing ΔTWS and ΔGWS during 1980-2015 based on multiple input data sources. Model parameters were estimated through minimizing the root-mean-square error between the Budyko-modeled and GRACE-derived ΔTWS during 2003-2015. The correlation of ensemble means between Budyko-modeled and GRACE-derived ΔTWS is 0.68 with p-value <0.05. The ΔGWS was reconstructed by subtracting soil moisture storage change from the Budyko-modeled ΔTWS and was validated (i.e., r = 0.74, p-value < 0.05) against well observations during the pre-GRACE period (i.e., 1985-1994). The negative values of the cumulative sum of the reconstructed ΔGWS during 1980-2015 (i.e., -13.6 ± 9.7 cm) indicate that the aquifer in Punjab has experienced depletion. The estimated depletion rate is -0.3 ± 0.2 cm/year and it has a negative correlation (i.e., r = -0.70, p-value < 0.0001) with the total number of tube wells installed in Punjab. The integration of the developed Budyko model with GRACE data provides a new way for evaluating long-term groundwater depletion in large-scale irrigation regions with parsimonious models.

  2. Simulation of the annual and diurnal cycles of rainfall over South Africa by a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pohl, Benjamin; Rouault, Mathieu; Roy, Shouraseni Sen

    2014-10-01

    The capability of a current state-of-the-art regional climate model for simulating the diurnal and annual cycles of rainfall over a complex subtropical region is documented here. Hourly rainfall is simulated over Southern Africa for 1998-2006 by the non-hydrostatic model weather research and forecasting (WRF), and compared to a network of 103 stations covering South Africa. We used five simulations, four of which consist of different parameterizations for atmospheric convection at a 0.5 × 0.5° resolution, performed to test the physic-dependency of the results. The fifth experiment uses explicit convection over tropical South Africa at a 1/30° resolution. WRF simulates realistic mean rainfall fields, albeit wet biases over tropical Africa. The model mean biases are strongly modulated by the convective scheme used for the simulations. The annual cycle of rainfall is well simulated over South Africa, mostly influenced by tropical summer rainfall except in the Western Cape region experiencing winter rainfall. The diurnal cycle shows a timing bias, with atmospheric convection occurring too early in the afternoon, and causing too abundant rainfall. This result, particularly true in summer over the northeastern part of the country, is weakly physic-dependent. Cloud-resolving simulations do not clearly reduce the diurnal cycle biases. In the end, the rainfall overestimations appear to be mostly imputable to the afternoon hours of the austral summer rainy season, i.e., the periods during which convective activity is intense over the region.

  3. Stochastic models and spectra of interannual variability of mean annual sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Privalsky, V. E.

    1988-10-01

    Estimates of one- and two-variate autoregressive models of mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) in five Smed squares in the North Atlantic are obtained by analysing time series of SST, 1881-1970. Year-to-year variations of SST are shown to follow the AR model of order one with a regression parameter of 0.5 so that their generalized spectrum decreases monotonically and relatively fast with frequency while the limits of statistical predictability amount up to two years. Two-variate models of SST reveal frequency-dependent time lags up to three years and possess slightly better statistical predictability. A feedback in the system of warm and cold currents is found with a characteristic time scale of about six years, which plays an important role in the system's energy budget.

  4. Atmospheric dust modeling from meso to global scales with the online NMMB/BSC-Dust model - Part 1: Model description, annual simulations and evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pérez, C.; Haustein, K.; Janjic, Z.; Jorba, O.; Huneeus, N.; Baldasano, J. M.; Black, T.; Basart, S.; Nickovic, S.; Miller, R. L.; Perlwitz, J. P.; Schulz, M.; Thomson, M.

    2011-06-01

    We describe and evaluate the NMMB/BSC-Dust, a new dust aerosol cycle model embedded online within the NCEP Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model (NMMB). NMMB is a further evolution of the operational Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM), which together with other upgrades has been extended from meso to global scales. Its unified non-hydrostatic dynamical core is prepared for regional and global simulation domains. The new NMMB/BSC-Dust is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales and represents a first step towards the development of a unified chemical-weather model. This paper describes the parameterizations used in the model to simulate the dust cycle including sources, transport, deposition and interaction with radiation. We evaluate monthly and annual means of the global configuration of the model against the AEROCOM dust benchmark dataset for year 2000 including surface concentration, deposition and aerosol optical depth (AOD), and we evaluate the daily AOD variability in a regional domain at high resolution covering Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe against AERONET AOD for year 2006. The NMMB/BSC-Dust provides a good description of the horizontal distribution and temporal variability of the dust. Daily AOD correlations at the regional scale are around 0.6-0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. At the global scale the model lies within the top range of AEROCOM dust models in terms of performance statistics for surface concentration, deposition and AOD. This paper discusses the current strengths and limitations of the modeling system and points towards future improvements.

  5. Atmospheric dust modeling from meso to global scales with the online NMMB/BSC-Dust model - Part 1: Model description, annual simulations and evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pérez, C.; Haustein, K.; Janjic, Z.; Jorba, O.; Huneeus, N.; Baldasano, J. M.; Black, T.; Basart, S.; Nickovic, S.; Miller, R. L.; Perlwitz, J. P.; Schulz, M.; Thomson, M.

    2011-12-01

    We describe and evaluate the NMMB/BSC-Dust, a new dust aerosol cycle model embedded online within the NCEP Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model (NMMB). NMMB is a further evolution of the operational Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM), which together with other upgrades has been extended from meso to global scales. Its unified non-hydrostatic dynamical core is prepared for regional and global simulation domains. The new NMMB/BSC-Dust is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales and represents a first step towards the development of a unified chemical-weather model. This paper describes the parameterizations used in the model to simulate the dust cycle including sources, transport, deposition and interaction with radiation. We evaluate monthly and annual means of the global configuration of the model against the AEROCOM dust benchmark dataset for year 2000 including surface concentration, deposition and aerosol optical depth (AOD), and we evaluate the daily AOD variability in a regional domain at high resolution covering Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe against AERONET AOD for year 2006. The NMMB/BSC-Dust provides a good description of the horizontal distribution and temporal variability of the dust. Daily AOD correlations at the regional scale are around 0.6-0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. At the global scale the model lies within the top range of AEROCOM dust models in terms of performance statistics for surface concentration, deposition and AOD. This paper discusses the current strengths and limitations of the modeling system and points towards future improvements.

  6. Annual plankton dynamics in a coupled physical-biological model of the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peña, M. Angelica; Masson, Diane; Callendar, Wendy

    2016-08-01

    A three-dimensional coupled biophysical model was developed to study the dynamics of the plankton ecosystem in the Strait of Georgia (SoG) estuary. The ocean circulation component is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the lower trophic level ecosystem is a nine-compartment Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) model that includes two types of phytoplankton and of zooplankton. A three year hindcast (2007-2009) is used to examine the mean annual seasonal cycle of the local plankton dynamics. For realistic values of irradiance, wind forcing and fresh water fluxes, the model predicts a seasonal cycle of salinity, nutrients and plankton in reasonable agreement with observations. In particular, the model reproduces the main features of the estuarine circulation, the marked increase in phytoplankton biomass during spring followed by intermittent less intense blooms during summer and fall, as well as the seasonal pattern of zooplankton biomass. Model results show that primary production fluctuates between low values in January and high values in April, with an annual production of 270 ± 33 (gC m-2) in the SoG. Most primary production is fueled by nitrate (f-ratio of about 0.7). Upwelling is the main source of nitrate into the upper layer, while most of the nitrate entering the Strait is exported out by horizontal advection. Physical processes, such as freshwater inflow, wind events, tidal mixing, and horizontal transports are important in maintaining the high spatio-temporal variability of the local phytoplankton biomass and production. Horizontal variability is high during the growing season (March to September). In summer, phytoplankton concentrates near the surface, in the shallow mixed layer, resulting in sporadic nutrient limitation of phytoplankton growth. In the northern portion of the strait, weaker summer winds and tidal currents lead to increased near-surface stratification which restricts nutrient fluxes and limit

  7. The annual cycle of the West African Monsoon in a two-dimensional model:Mechanisms of the rainband migration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peyrille, P.; Lafore, J. P.; Boone, A. A.

    2015-12-01

    The processes that drive the annual cycle of the West African Monsoon (WAM) are analysed using an idealized meridional-vertical numerical model that includes moist physics. Using the work by Peyrillé and Lafore (2007) as a starting point, the framework is adapted to studying the annual cycle. A suitable forcing methodology for temperature and humidity is derived allowing the 2D model to reproduce the main features of the WAM.A budget analysis of the simulated temperature and humidity variables leads to a picture of the ITCZ seasonal displacement, for which the moistening on the northern side of the ITCZ is key. It is due to the near surface moisture advection by the monsoon flow to the north of the ITCZ, in addition to the turbulent fluxes and shallow convection which transport humidity to the top of the PBL. On a larger scale, the warming of the Saharan Heat Low by turbulence and radiation and the cooling/moistening within the ITCZ by convective downdrafts reinforces the monsoon flow. The mechanism seems at play during the whole seasonal cycle, which is seen as a steady translation of these structures. Sensitivity experiments show the importance of the low level processes such as downdrafts, horizontal advection and water recycling. Although advection is the 1st order process, the water recycling appears as a key element by directly modulating the intensity of rainfall and by allowing the convective downdraft to feed back onto the WAM.

  8. Modeling the Ecohydrologic Response of the Forest-Grassland Ecotone in Western Canada to Changes in Annual Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yetemen, O.; Ireson, A. M.; Barr, A.; Melton, J. R.; Black, T. A.

    2015-12-01

    The ecotone between the southern boreal forest and the grassland of western Canada is controlled by the water balance, and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Although ecohydrologic fluxes are being investigated at the Boreal Ecosystem Research and Monitoring Sites (BERMS) at the stand level, the ecohydrologic response of this ecotone to climate change is poorly understood. We use CTEM (the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model), coupled to CLASS (the Canadian Land Surface Scheme), to explore the structural and functional responses of the forest-grassland ecotone to climatic variability. The initial evaluations of CLASS-CTEM are being done using data from three mature forest sites (jack pine, aspen and black spruce) at BERMS and one grassland site. The model is forced with observed climate data between 1997 and 2010 by using each year, run repeatedly with a 400 year spin up, as one climatic scenario. Preliminary results show a sigmoidal response of annual gross primary production (GPP) to annual precipitation within each plant functional type, with limited GPP at low precipitation, higher but uniform GPP at high precipitation, and an intermediate precipitation range where GPP responds sensitively to increasing precipitation.

  9. CASSIA--a dynamic model for predicting intra-annual sink demand and interannual growth variation in Scots pine.

    PubMed

    Schiestl-Aalto, Pauliina; Kulmala, Liisa; Mäkinen, Harri; Nikinmaa, Eero; Mäkelä, Annikki

    2015-04-01

    The control of tree growth vs environment by carbon sources or sinks remains unresolved although it is widely studied. This study investigates growth of tree components and carbon sink-source dynamics at different temporal scales. We constructed a dynamic growth model 'carbon allocation sink source interaction' (CASSIA) that calculates tree-level carbon balance from photosynthesis, respiration, phenology and temperature-driven potential structural growth of tree organs and dynamics of stored nonstructural carbon (NSC) and their modifying influence on growth. With the model, we tested hypotheses that sink demand explains the intra-annual growth dynamics of the meristems, and that the source supply is further needed to explain year-to-year growth variation. The predicted intra-annual dimensional growth of shoots and needles and the number of cells in xylogenesis phases corresponded with measurements, whereas NSC hardly limited the growth, supporting the first hypothesis. Delayed GPP influence on potential growth was necessary for simulating the yearly growth variation, indicating also at least an indirect source limitation. CASSIA combines seasonal growth and carbon balance dynamics with long-term source dynamics affecting growth and thus provides a first step to understanding the complex processes regulating intra- and interannual growth and sink-source dynamics. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

  10. A modelling study of inter-annual variation of Kuroshio intrusion on the shelf of East China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jiaxing; Wei, Hao; Zhang, Zhihua; Lu, Youyu

    2013-12-01

    Inter-annual variability of the Kuroshio water intrusion on the shelf of East China Sea (ECS) was simulated with a nested global and Northwest Pacific ocean circulation model. The model analysis reveals the influence of the variability of Kuroshio transport east of Taiwan on the intrusion to the northeast of Taiwan: high correlation ( r = 0.92) with the on-shore volume flux in the lower layer (50-200 m); low correlation ( r = 0.50) with the on-shore flux in the upper layer (0-50 m). Spatial distribution of correlations between volume fluxes and sea surface height suggests that inter-annual variability of the Kuroshio flux east of Taiwan and its subsurface water intruding to the shelf lag behind the sea surface height anomalies in the central Pacific at 162°E by about 14 months, and could be related to wind-forced variation in the interior North Pacific that propagates westward as Rossby waves. The intrusion of Kuroshio surface water is also influenced by local winds. The intruding Kuroshio subsurface water causes variations of temperature and salinity of bottom waters on the southern ECS shelf. The influence of the intruding Kuroshio subsurface water extends widely from the shelf slope northeast of Taiwan northward to the central ECS near the 60 m isobath, and northeastward to the region near the 90 m isobath.

  11. Data analysis for preliminary conceptual model design, Vadose Zone Monitoring System (VZMS), McClellan AFB. 1997 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Zawislanski, P.T.; Oldenburg, C.M.

    1998-01-05

    Vadose zone investigations are being performed at site S-7 in IC 34, at McClellan AFB. At this location, a Vadose Zone Monitoring System (VZMS) is being used to collect subsurface data including hydraulic potential, soil gas pressure, moisture content, water chemistry, gas chemistry, and temperature. Although each individual data set is useful in improving the characterization of this contaminated site, the overall purpose of data collection is to provide input for the conceptual and numerical modeling of VOC transport in the vadose zone and the exchange of contaminants between the vadose zone and groundwater. In this report the authors submit a summary and preliminary analysis of the data collected through the end of 1997 and present it in the context of input for the impending modeling. This report merges findings from both the first and second half of 1997 and is presented as an annual report in lieu of two semi-annual reports, due to the fact that insufficient data had been collected up to mid June to allow a meaningful analysis.

  12. Modeling annual production and carbon fluxes of a large managed temperate forest using forest inventories, satellite data and field measurements.

    PubMed

    Le Maire, Guerric; Davi, Hendrik; Soudani, Kamel; François, Christophe; Le Dantec, Valérie; Dufrêne, Eric

    2005-07-01

    We evaluated annual productivity and carbon fluxes over the Fontainebleau forest, a large heterogeneous forest region of 17,000 ha, in terms of species composition, canopy structure, stand age, soil type and water and mineral resources. The model is a physiological process-based forest ecosystem model coupled with an allocation model and a soil model. The simulations were done stand by stand, i.e., 2992 forest management units of simulation. Some input parameters that are spatially variable and to which the model is sensitive were calculated for each stand from forest inventory attributes, a network of 8800 soil pits, satellite data and field measurements. These parameters are: (1) vegetation attributes: species, age, height, maximal leaf area index of the year, aboveground biomass and foliar nitrogen content; and (2) soil attributes: available soil water capacity, soil depth and soil carbon content. Main outputs of the simulations are wood production and carbon fluxes on a daily to yearly basis. Results showed that the forest is a carbon sink, with a net ecosystem exchange of 371 g C m(-2) year(-1). Net primary productivity is estimated at 630 g C m(-2) year(-1) over the entire forest. Reasonably good agreement was found between simulated trunk relative growth rate (2.74%) and regional production estimated from the National Forest Inventory (IFN) (2.52%), as well as between simulated and measured annual wood production at the forest scale (about 71,000 and 68,000 m(3) year(-1), respectively). Results are discussed species by species.

  13. Multi-annual modes in the 20th century temperature variability in reanalyses and CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Järvinen, Heikki; Seitola, Teija; Silén, Johan; Räisänen, Jouni

    2016-11-01

    A performance expectation is that Earth system models simulate well the climate mean state and the climate variability. To test this expectation, we decompose two 20th century reanalysis data sets and 12 CMIP5 model simulations for the years 1901-2005 of the monthly mean near-surface air temperature using randomised multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (RMSSA). Due to the relatively short time span, we concentrate on the representation of multi-annual variability which the RMSSA method effectively captures as separate and mutually orthogonal spatio-temporal components. This decomposition is a unique way to separate statistically significant quasi-periodic oscillations from one another in high-dimensional data sets.The main results are as follows. First, the total spectra for the two reanalysis data sets are remarkably similar in all timescales, except that the spectral power in ERA-20C is systematically slightly higher than in 20CR. Apart from the slow components related to multi-decadal periodicities, ENSO oscillations with approximately 3.5- and 5-year periods are the most prominent forms of variability in both reanalyses. In 20CR, these are relatively slightly more pronounced than in ERA-20C. Since about the 1970s, the amplitudes of the 3.5- and 5-year oscillations have increased, presumably due to some combination of forced climate change, intrinsic low-frequency climate variability, or change in global observing network. Second, none of the 12 coupled climate models closely reproduce all aspects of the reanalysis spectra, although some models represent many aspects well. For instance, the GFDL-ESM2M model has two nicely separated ENSO periods although they are relatively too prominent as compared with the reanalyses. There is an extensive Supplement and YouTube videos to illustrate the multi-annual variability of the data sets.

  14. Aiming at “De Feet” and Diabetes: A Rural Model to Increase Annual Foot Examinations

    PubMed Central

    Beem, Susie E.; Machala, Margaret; Holman, Craig; Wraalstad, Randal; Bybee, Ann

    2004-01-01

    Something is afoot in south central Idaho. After 2 years of work, the percentage of people with diabetes receiving recommended annual foot examinations has increased by 13.8%, exceeding the state average. This turnaround, from being the region with the lowest percentage of foot examinations in the state, was made possible when South Central District Health joined diabetes coalition members to develop a comprehensive program that maximizes limited resources in the rural, 8-county service area. Key program components include (1) development of a curriculum on CD-ROM called 2 Minute Diabetes Foot Examination, (2) training area physicians and nurses in the curriculum, (3) incorporating the curriculum into the nursing program at the local college, (4) offering free foot-screening clinics to targeted populations, and (5) conducting public education and outreach. PMID:15451726

  15. ERIC/ECTJ Annual Review Paper. Evaluating the CTW Model for Producing Educational Television.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cook, Thomas D.; Curtin, Thomas R.

    1985-01-01

    Describes the Children's Television Workshop (CTW) production model, a general process model utilized in the production of "Sesame Street" and all other CTW productions. The model's assumptions are explicated and its effectiveness is assessed using Scriven's logic of evaluation. (MBR)

  16. Seasonal models of herpangina and hand-foot-mouth disease to simulate annual fluctuations in urban warming in Tokyo.

    PubMed

    Urashima, Mitsuyoshi; Shindo, Nahoko; Okabe, Nobuhiko

    2003-04-01

    In order to investigate the effects of global warming, we attempted to establish seasonal models to predict fluctuations in rates of herpangina (HA) and hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) associated with weather conditions and calendar months in Tokyo, Japan. Surveillance data tracking HA/HFMD incidences in Tokyo was retrieved from the Infectious Agents Surveillance Report, published by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Japan. From the Meteorological Agency, we obtained data for 54 weather condition parameters. The annual fluctuations in reported HA cases comprising start, peak, and end weeks almost exactly matched the model, although peak levels for each fluctuation did not always match in HFMD. Furthermore, for the HA model, 88% of the variations among observed HA cases were explained by the linear relationship with the seasonal parameters investigated, which was higher than the 64% observed for the HFMD model. The HA and HFMD models were applied to data from the years 1999 to 2002, and demonstrated correlations of 86% and 64%, respectively. These models predicted that warmer climate conditions would lead to an increased number of HA and HFMD cases. These results suggest that our seasonal models may quantify the dependency of infectious diseases on seasonal parameters and simulate the impact of global warming.

  17. Modeling the annual soil erosion rate in the mouth of river Pineios' sub-basin in Thessaly County, Greece.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ilia, Ioanna; Loupasakis, Constantinos; Tsangaratos, Paraskevas

    2015-04-01

    Erosion is a natural - geomorphological phenomenon, active through geological time that is considered as one of the main agents that forms the earth surface. Soil erosion models estimate the rates of soil erosion and provide useful information and guidance for the development of appropriate intervention and soil conservation practices and strategies. A significant number of soil erosion models can be found in literature; however, the most extensively applied model is the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) established in 1997 by Renard KG, Foster GR, Weesies GA, McCool DK and Yoder DC. RUSLE is an empirically based model that enables the estimation of the average annual rate of soil erosion for an area of interest providing several alternative scenarios involving cropping systems, management methods and erosion control strategies. According to RUSLE model's specifications five major factors (rainfall pattern, soil type, topography, crop system, and management practices) are utilized for estimating the average annual erosion through the following equation: A=RxKxLxSxCxP, PIC where A is the computed spatial average soil loss and temporal average soil loss per unit area (tons ha-1 year-1), R the rainfall-runoff erosivity factor (MJ mm ha-1h-1 year-1), K the soil erodibility factor (tons h MJ-1 mm-1), L the slope - length factor, S the slope steepness factor, C the cover management factor and P the conservation support practice factor. L, S, C and P factors are all dimensionless. The present study aims to utilize a GIS-based RUSLE model in order to estimate the average annual soil loss rate in the sub-basin extending at the mouth of Pineios river in Thessaly County, Greece. The area covers approximate 775.9 km2 with a mean slope angle of 7.8o. The rainfall data of 39 gauge station from 1980 to 2000 where used in order to predict the rainfall-runoff erosivity factor (R). The K-factor was estimated using soil maps available from the European Soil Portal with a

  18. Comparing an annual and daily time-step model for predicting field-scale P loss

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Several models with varying degrees of complexity are available for describing P movement through the landscape. The complexity of these models is dependent on the amount of data required by the model, the number of model parameters needed to be estimated, the theoretical rigor of the governing equa...

  19. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that there are inherent uncertainties with model predictions, limited studies have addressed model prediction uncertainty. In this study we assess the effect of model input error on predict...

  20. Organizational Models and Mythologies of the American Research University. ASHE 1986 Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alpert, Daniel

    Features of the matrix model of the research university and myths about the academic enterprise are described, along with serious dissonances in the U.S. university system. The linear model, from which the matrix model evolved, describes the university's structure, perceived mission, and organizational behavior. A matrix model portrays in concise,…

  1. Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Annual Report and Research Highlights 2011-2012

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rienecker, Michele M.

    2012-01-01

    Over the last year, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has continued to advance our GEOS-5-based systems, updating products for both weather and climate applications. We contributed hindcasts and forecasts to the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) of seasonal forecasts and the suite of decadal predictions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).

  2. Parameter uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator (APLE) model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Technical abstract: Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study, we conduct an uncertainty analys...

  3. Uranium Hydride Nucleation and Growth Model FY'16 ESC Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, Mary Ann; Richards, Andrew Walter; Holby, Edward F.; Schulze, Roland K.

    2016-12-20

    Uranium hydride corrosion is of great interest to the nuclear industry. Uranium reacts with water and/or hydrogen to form uranium hydride which adversely affects material performance. Hydride nucleation is influenced by thermal history, mechanical defects, oxide thickness, and chemical defects. Information has been gathered from past hydride experiments to formulate a uranium hydride model to be used in a Canned Subassembly (CSA) lifetime prediction model. This multi-scale computer modeling effort started in FY’13, and the fourth generation model is now complete. Additional high-resolution experiments will be run to further test the model.

  4. Statistically Integrated Flow and Flood Modelling Compared to Hydrologically Integrated Quantity and Quality Model for Annual Flows in the Regulated Macquarie River in Arid Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Shiquan; Kingsford, Richard T.

    2011-07-01

    Water resource management traditionally depends on use of highly complex hydrological models designed originally to manage water for abstraction but increasingly relied on to determine ecological impacts and test ecological rehabilitation opportunities. These models are rarely independently tested. We compared a relatively simple statistical model, integrated flow and flood modelling (IFFM), with a complex hydrological model, the integrated quality and quantity model (IQQM), on the highly regulated Macquarie River of the Murray-Darling Basin, southeastern Australia. We compared annual flows (1891-2007) at three gauges to actual data and modelled output: before dams and diversions (unregulated) and after river regulation (regulated), using the goodness of fit (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency) and nonparametric tests. IQQM underestimated impacts of river regulation respectively on median and average flows at the Macquarie Marshes (Oxley gauge) by about 10% and 16%, compared to IFFM. IFFM model output more closely matched actual unregulated and regulated flows than IQQM which tended to underestimate unregulated flows and overestimate regulated flows at the Ramsar-listed wetland. Output was reasonably similar for the two models at the other two flow gauges. Relatively simple statistical models could more reliably estimate ecological impact at floodplains of large river systems, as well as an independent assessment tool compared to complex hydrological models. Finally, such statistical models may be valuable for predicting ecological responses to environmental flows, given their simplicity and relative ease to run.

  5. Statistically integrated flow and flood modelling compared to hydrologically integrated quantity and quality model for annual flows in the regulated Macquarie river in arid Australia.

    PubMed

    Ren, Shiquan; Kingsford, Richard T

    2011-07-01

    Water resource management traditionally depends on use of highly complex hydrological models designed originally to manage water for abstraction but increasingly relied on to determine ecological impacts and test ecological rehabilitation opportunities. These models are rarely independently tested. We compared a relatively simple statistical model, integrated flow and flood modelling (IFFM), with a complex hydrological model, the integrated quality and quantity model (IQQM), on the highly regulated Macquarie River of the Murray-Darling Basin, southeastern Australia. We compared annual flows (1891-2007) at three gauges to actual data and modelled output: before dams and diversions (unregulated) and after river regulation (regulated), using the goodness of fit (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency) and nonparametric tests. IQQM underestimated impacts of river regulation respectively on median and average flows at the Macquarie Marshes (Oxley gauge) by about 10% and 16%, compared to IFFM. IFFM model output more closely matched actual unregulated and regulated flows than IQQM which tended to underestimate unregulated flows and overestimate regulated flows at the Ramsar-listed wetland. Output was reasonably similar for the two models at the other two flow gauges. Relatively simple statistical models could more reliably estimate ecological impact at floodplains of large river systems, as well as an independent assessment tool compared to complex hydrological models. Finally, such statistical models may be valuable for predicting ecological responses to environmental flows, given their simplicity and relative ease to run.

  6. Annual Report 2015: High Fidelity Modeling of Field-Reversed Configuration (FRC) Thrusters

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-06-01

    development of ancillary physics models for realistic FRC simulation, including Collisional-Radiative models for Argon and other atomic gases of...reversed configuration," Physics of Plasmas, vol. 7, no. 10. 2 Distribution A: Approved for Public Release. PA# 16202 Figure 1. Magnetic field...into FRC formation physics . Another active area of investigation is the addition of neutrals to the multifluid models - the interaction of all three

  7. From the bush to the bench: the annual Nothobranchius fishes as a new model system in biology.

    PubMed

    Cellerino, Alessandro; Valenzano, Dario R; Reichard, Martin

    2016-05-01

    African annual fishes from the genus Nothobranchius are small teleosts that inhabit temporary water bodies subject to annual desiccation due to the alternation of the monsoon seasons. Given their unique biology, these fish have emerged as a model taxon in several biological disciplines. Their increasing popularity stems from the extremely short lifespan that is the result of their specific life-history adaptations and is retained under laboratory conditions. Nothobranchius furzeri, the most popular laboratory species, is the vertebrate species with the shortest lifespan recorded in captivity. In the laboratory, adults of different Nothobranchius species and populations live between 3 and 18 months and, notably, there is a negative correlation between the captive lifespan of a species and the aridity of their habitat. Their short lifespan is coupled to rapid age-dependent functional decline and expression of cellular and molecular changes comparable to those observed in other vertebrates, including humans. The recent development of transgenesis in this species makes it possible to insert specific constructs into their genome, and the establishment of transgenic lines is facilitated by their very rapid generation time, which can be as short as 1 month. This makes Nothobranchius species particularly suited for investigating biological and molecular aspects of ageing and ageing-associated dysfunctions. At the same time, they also represent a unique model taxon to investigate the evolution of life-history adaptations and their genetic architecture. We review their natural history, including phylogenetic relationships, distribution in relation to habitat conditions and natural selection for differential longevity, population structure and demography, and life cycle with emphasis on diapause that may occur at three stages during embryonic development. We further critically evaluate their use as a laboratory model for understanding the evolution of a rapid ageing rate and

  8. Annual cycle of surface air temperature in Northern Hemisphere: Comparison of observations and simulations with climate models of different complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.

    2003-04-01

    Amplitude-phase characteristics (APC) of surface air temperature (SAT) annual cycle (AC) in the Northern Hemisphere are analyzed using observations for the 21th century and the hierarchy of the climate models, such as Budyko-type energy balance model (EBM), model of intermediate complexity (IAP RAS CM) and coupled general circulation models (ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3). Observed data show the distinct features of SAT AC APC in the regions north- and southward of the characteristic position of the snow-ice boundary (SIB), in the Far East monsoon region, in the desert regions of Africa and Central America, in the regions of stormtracks and over the oceans. Analysis using EBM associates those SAT AC APC tendencies of change in the middle and high latitudes to the influence of the albedo-SAT feedback due to the SIB movement. In the monsoon and stormtrack regions they are attributed to the interannual cloudiness variability, in the desert regions - to the influence of a further desertification and/or scattering aerosol loading into the atmosphere. IAP RAS CM simulates the tendencies of change for SAT AC APC which are related to the SIB movement in the experiment with greenhouse gases atmospheric loading reasonably well. In contrast, the tendencies associated to the cloudiness variability are not reproduced by this model. The model also simulates the tendencies related to the desertification processes. In the similar experiment the coupled general circulation models (GCMs) simulate the tendencies of change related to the cloudiness variability much better then the model of intermediate complexity. In the experiment with sulphate aerosol loading into the atmosphere they also simulate the tendencies attributed to the influence of scattering aerosol. In contrast, GCMs do not simulate the tendencies related to the desertification processes and underestimate the feedbacks related to the SIB movement.

  9. Predicting Distribution and Inter-Annual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity from a Stochastic, Multiple-Linear Regression Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, C. Y.; Tippett, M. K.; Sobel, A. H.; Camargo, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    We are working towards the development of a new statistical-dynamical downscaling system to study the influence of climate on tropical cyclones (TCs). The first step is development of an appropriate model for TC intensity as a function of environmental variables. We approach this issue with a stochastic model consisting of a multiple linear regression model (MLR) for 12-hour intensity forecasts as a deterministic component, and a random error generator as a stochastic component. Similar to the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), MLR relates the surrounding environment to storm intensity, but with only essential predictors calculated from monthly-mean NCEP reanalysis fields (potential intensity, shear, etc.) and from persistence. The deterministic MLR is developed with data from 1981-1999 and tested with data from 2000-2012 for the Atlantic, Eastern North Pacific, Western North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere basins. While the global MLR's skill is comparable to that of the operational statistical models (e.g., SHIPS), the distribution of the predicted maximum intensity from deterministic results has a systematic low bias compared to observations; the deterministic MLR creates almost no storms with intensities greater than 100 kt. The deterministic MLR can be significantly improved by adding the stochastic component, based on the distribution of random forecasting errors from the deterministic model compared to the training data. This stochastic component may be thought of as representing the component of TC intensification that is not linearly related to the environmental variables. We find that in order for the stochastic model to accurately capture the observed distribution of maximum storm intensities, the stochastic component must be auto-correlated across 12-hour time steps. This presentation also includes a detailed discussion of the distributions of other TC-intensity related quantities, as well as the inter-annual

  10. Assessment of Model Uncertainty in the Prediction of Seasonal and Annual Variability in the Black Sea.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salihoglu, B.; Arkin, S. S.; Fach, B.; Akoglu, E.

    2016-02-01

    A new generation (circulation, biogeochemical and a higher trophic level) model for the Black Sea was developed to provide an integrated analysis of ecosystem attributes that contributes to policy oriented criteria's of the European Union's ambitious Marine Strategy Framework Directive towards achieving Good Environmental Status by 2020. The biogeochemical model, including the carbonate module, comprises thirty state variables. The higher trophic level model includes thirteen fish species. The model system was used to carry out hindcast analyses for 1980-2013 period and forecast analyses for the 2013-2020 time period assuming different scenarios of anthropogenic pressure acting on the Black Sea. The results of hindcast simulations indicate that the Black Sea model system demonstrates a range of skill, with physical variables having the most skill followed by chemical variables. The HTL model has more skill for small pelagic fish (e.g. Anchovy) than larger pelagic and demersal fish. We show that capturing mesoscale variability is of great importance in such models and directly influences model skill to capture seasonal and regional variability of phytoplankton blooms, specifically the skill to correctly resolve bloom timing and duration.

  11. Response of North American ecosystem models to multi-annual periodicities in temperature and precipitation

    Treesearch

    J. Alan Yeakley; Ron A. Moen; David D. Breshears; Martha K. Nungesser

    1994-01-01

    Ecosystem models typically use input temperature and precipitation data generated stochastically from weather station means and variances. Although the weather station data are based on measurements taken over a few decades, model simulations are usually on the order of centuries. Consequently, observed periodicities in temperature and precipitation at the continental...

  12. The State and Higher Education: A Model for Higher Education Policy Studies. ASHE Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aper, Jeffery P.

    A systems model for the study of state higher education policy is adapted to reflect structural relationships within and among key units of government and organizations informally involved in the policy-making process, as well as more fluid political and economic contextual elements that mediate and shape the interaction between them. The model is…

  13. College Choice as Capital Conversion and Investment: A New Model. ASHE Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDonough, Patricia M.; And Others

    This paper presents a model of college choice that suggests that students' choice of college can be related to perceived "capital conversion" benefits. The model was tested on an evenly distributed sample (n=22,109) of students; one group attending elite colleges (with average freshman Scholastic Assessment Test scores of 1200 or higher)…

  14. Fall of Global Temperature In The First Half of 21-st Century. Physical-statistical Modeling of Global and Regional Annual Surface Temperatures of Air On The Basis of Energy Model of Atmosphere and Hydrosphere In View of Solar Activity.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boudovyi, V.; Medvedev, V.; Khorozov, S.; Belogolov, V.

    The energy model of atmosphere and hydrosphere and model of global annual surface temperatures are constructed on the basis of the equations of thermal balance of the upper layers of the Earth. It is supposed, that a major reason of greenhouse effect is the increase of concentration of products of water vapour condensation (sublimation) on account of ionization of the upper layers of an atmosphere by hard radiation at high solar activity. Parameters of the models were defined on the basis of a 300-years observation series of Wolf numbers and 120-years observation series of global annual temperature. The models of annual surface temperatures in various geographical points are constructed on the basis of energy model of the upper layers of the Earth and 50- years series of meteorological observations. The models of annual surface temperatures well explain the global warming during the 20-th century and annual temperature oscillations on a phon of warming trend. The modelling of annual surface temperature changings within several centuries (on the basis of the probable script of solar activity development) shows, that in the first half of the 21-st century global warming, probably, will be replaced by the fall of global temperature. At the end of the 22-nd century this tendency can finish by small glacial period similar to period observed in Europe in 15-18 centuries and most brightly expressed during 1450 -1700 years. The analysis of probable consequences of fall of temperature in Europe on the basis of historical documents is submitted.

  15. Variations in the elemental ratio of organic matter in the central Baltic Sea: Part II - Sensitivities of annual mass flux estimates to model parameter variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreus, Markus; Schartau, Markus

    2015-06-01

    This study describes a sensitivity analysis that allows the parameters of a one-dimensional ecosystem model to be ranked according to their specificity in determining biochemical key fluxes. Key fluxes of interest are annual (a) total production (TP), (b) remineralization above the halocline (RM), and (c) export at 50 m (EX) at the Baltic Sea monitoring site BY15 located in the Gotland Deep basin. The model resolves mass flux of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorous (P), while considering nitrogen fixation explicitly. Our first null hypothesis is that the variation of the value of every single model parameter affects each annual C, N, and P budget simultaneously. Our second null hypothesis states that the variation of every parameter value induces changes at least in either of the annual C, N or P budgets. Our analyses falsify both null hypotheses and reveal that 8 out of 36 parameters must be regarded redundant, as their variation neither alter annual key fluxes nor produce considerable time-shifts in model trajectories at the respective site. Seven parameters were found to induce substantial changes in annual C, N, and P flux estimates simultaneously. The assimilation efficiency of zooplankton turned out to be of vital importance. This parameter discriminates between the assimilation and destruction of algal prey during grazing. The fraction of unassimilated dead algal cells is critical for the amount of organic matter exported out of the euphotic zone. The maximum cellular N:C quota of diazotrophs and the degradation/hydrolysis rate of detrital carbon are two parameters that will likely remain unconstrained by time series data, but both affect the annual C budget considerably. Overall, our detailed specification of model sensitivities to parameter variations will facilitate the formulation of a well-posed inverse problem for the estimation of C, N and P fluxes from stock observations at the Gotland Deep.

  16. The AFTAC model integration project: An annual progress report. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Rodriguez, D.J.; Moore, R.M.

    1993-12-01

    The EXPRESS and ADPIC models have been designed to assist emergency personnel in their response to radiological accidents. Closure on the development of an operational version of the HADPIC Modeling System (HMS), a multi-faceted application that supports the hemispheric ADPIC (HADPIC) atmospheric dispersion model on a Sun workstation, was achieved toward the end of the fiscal year. The fulfilling tasks over the period encompassed by this report included: (1) the generation of software for calculating average concentrations at arbitrary locations in the model domain and displaying isopleths of concentration and (2) the comprehensive testing of major components of the HMS using IEEE standards. Scientists for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Institute of Experimental Meteorology in Obninsk, Russia, extensively evaluated their respective models (ADPIC/U.S. and EXPRESS/Russia) using perfluorocarbon tracer data from the Across North America Tracer Experiment (ANATEX). The results of both models are reported here because of the useful insights they provide regarding limits of performance as a function of model sophistication and the quality of the input meteorology.

  17. Annual Report: Property Improvement in CZT via Modeling and Processing Innovations

    SciTech Connect

    Henager, Charles H.; Setyawan, Wahyu; Gao, Fei; Hu, Shenyang Y.; Bliss, Mary; Riley, Brian J.; Alvine, Kyle J.; Stave, Jean A.

    2013-09-01

    The objective of this project is to develop growth models of CZT crystals from the melt using vertical gradient freeze (VGF) or vertical Bridgman growth as a typical process. Further, the project will perform critical experiments including single crystal growth to validate the growth models and to provide detailed data for modeling and simulation. Ideally, the project will develop growth models that will provide, for the first time, choices for optimal CZT single crystal growth from the melt based on model input. The overarching goal that guides this research proposal is to produce large, single crystals of CZT with good yield and reproducible properties. In our view this depends on 1) understanding crystal growth processes, including annealing and cool-down processing, and 2) understanding the role of defects on detector response since it is not possible, yet, to produce defect-free materials. Models of defect structure and formation are addressed. Validated models and experiments on reducing defects in melt-grown crystals are used to guide our understanding of growth processes and in-furnace annealing plus cool-down.

  18. Using annually-resolved bivalve records and biogeochemical models to understand and predict climate impacts in coastal oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holmes, Sarah

    2017-04-01

    It is more important than ever to study the oceans and especially the shelf seas, which are disproportionately productive, sustaining over 90% of global fisheries . The economic and societal significance of these shallow oceans, as the interface through which society interacts with the marine environment, makes them highly relevant to the decisions of policy-makers and stakeholders. These decision-makers rely upon empirical data informed by consistent and extensive monitoring and assessment from experts in the field, yet long-term, spatially-extensive datasets of the marine environment do not exist or are of poor quality. Modelling the shelf seas with biogeochemical models can provide valuable data, allowing scientists to look at both past and future scenarios to estimate ecosystem response to change. In particular, the European Regional Sea Ecosystem Model or ERSEM combines not only the complex hydrographical aspects of the North West European shelf, but also vast numbers of biological and chemical parameters. Though huge efforts across the modelling community are invested into developing and ultimately increasing the reliability of models such as the ERSEM, this is typically achieved by looking at relationships with aforementioned observed datasets, restricting model accuracy and our understanding of ecosystem processes. It is for this reason that proxy data of the marine environment is so valuable. Of all marine proxies available, sclerochronology, the study of the growth bands on long-lived marine molluscs, is the only proven to provide novel, high resolution, multi-centennial, annually-resolved, absolutely-dated archives of past ocean environment, analogous to dendrochronology. For the first time, this PhD project will combine the proxy data of sclerochronology with model hindcast data from the ERSEM with the aim to better understand the North West European shelf sea environment and potentially improve predictions of future climate change in this region and

  19. Accurate modeling of F-region electron densities. Annual progress report, 1993-1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-01-01

    In the past year, the authors have made considerable progress in a number of areas including algorithm development, completion of two major case studies, and the development of a new EUV flux model. As a result, there has been a major improvement in the ability to model global emissions in support of NASA's imaging plans. Activity highlights include the following: developed a new algorithm to allow physical models to reproduce observed NmF2; investigated the relationship between NmF2 and F10.7 at Millstone Hill during 1990; developed a new solar EUV flux model; statistical survey of anomalously high nighttime electron T(sub e) at Millstone Hill; conducted a case study of the March 1990 magnetic storm; and conducted a comparison between theory and data of magnetically quiet behavior of the winter ionosphere at Millstone Hill.

  20. Thermodynamic model for calorimetric and phase coexistence properties of coal derived fluids. Annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Kabadi, V.N.

    1991-10-01

    On September 1, 1989 work was initiated on a project to extend the available vapor-liquid equilibrium (VLE) model for coal fluids to allow satisfactory predictions of excess enthalpies of coal liquids at high pressures. The available vapor liquid equilibrium model was developed with support from previous grant from DOE-PETC (Grant no. DE-FG22-89PC90541). The current project also involves measurement of some model compound VLE data and chromatographic characterization of coal liquids for distribution of heteroatoms. A computational thermodynamic model for VLE, excess enthalpies and heat capacities of coal derived liquids has been developed. The model uses the modified UNIFAC correlation for the liquid phase. Some unavailable UNIFAC interactions parameters have been regressed from experimental VLE and excess enthalpy data. The computations are carried out using the method of continuous thermodynamics. Mode is used to derive interesting conclusions on the effect of oxygen, nitrogen, and sulfur heteroatoms on the thermodynamic properties of coal liquids. When compared with limited experimental data available for coal liquids the model shows good agreement. Some progress has been made on binary VLE measurements and size exclusion chromatography of coal liquids.

  1. The annual pressure cycle on Mars: Results from the LMD Martian atmospheric general circulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hourdin, Frederic; Forget, Francois; Talagrand, O.

    1993-01-01

    We have been developing a General Circulation Model (GCM) of the martian atmosphere since 1989. The model has been described rather extensively elsewhere and only the main characteristics are given here. The dynamical part of the model, adapted from the LMD terrestrial climate model, is based on a finite-difference formulation of the classical 'primitive equations of meteorology.' The radiative transfer code includes absorption and emission by CO2 (carefully validated by comparison to line-by-line calculations) and dust in the thermal range and absorption and scattering by dust in the visible range. Other physical parameterizations are included: modeling of vertical turbulent mixing, dry convective adjustment (in order to prevent vertical unstable temperature profiles), and a multilayer model of the thermal conduction in the soil. Finally, the condensation-sublimation of CO2 is introduced through specification of a pressure-dependent condensation temperature. The atmospheric and surface temperatures are prevented from falling below this critical temperature by condensation and direct precipitation onto the surface of atmospheric CO2. The only prespecified spatial fields are the surface thermal inertia, albedo, and topography.

  2. The application of a Grey Markov Model to forecasting annual maximum water levels at hydrological stations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Sheng; Chi, Kun; Zhang, Qiyi; Zhang, Xiangdong

    2012-03-01

    Compared with traditional real-time forecasting, this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model (GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area. The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model. The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values, and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information. The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps: 1) establish the GM (1, 1) model based on the data series; 2) estimate the trend values; 3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series; 4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2, and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation; 5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy. The historical water level records (from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin, China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps. Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence. Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data. The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary. The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable. The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.

  3. The Annual Freeze-/Thaw Cycle in the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed, Alaska: Combining RADAR With Model Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schroeder, R.; McDonald, K.; Kimball, J.; Podest, E.; Zimmermann, R.

    2005-12-01

    A globally applicable method that uses RADAR remote sensing to detect the Freeze-/Thaw Cycle (FTC) on earth, e.g. in the boreal zone of North America or Eurasia, is shown. The focus of this work was the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW), which is a small area of relatively complex terrain in the interior of Alaska. We will demonstrate the potential of our FTC method, when combining the annual remotely sensed FTC map with modeled direct solar radiation load at the surface, which uses for the latter a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) as input. The result of our work confirms that the timing of thaw in spring is clearly a function of the solar intensity, which is driven mainly by topographic effects, in particular by the values of aspect and slope across CPCRW. For the freeze-up in autumn however it is speculated that the spatial distribution of water in the soil marks the end of the non-frozen period. In our study, this has caused the north facing slope freezing-up later than the drier south oriented slope, though the observed permafrost distribution in the area as well as our estimates of modeled clear-sky-radiation do not match with this result.

  4. The Annual Glaciohydrology Cycle in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Part 1. Hydrology Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colgan, William; Rajaram, Harihar; Anderson, Robert; Steffen. Konrad; Phillips, Thomas; Zwally, H. Jay; Abdalati, Waleed

    2012-01-01

    We apply a novel one-dimensional glacier hydrology model that calculates hydraulic head to the tidewater-terminating Sermeq Avannarleq flowline of the Greenland ice sheet. Within a plausible parameter space, the model achieves a quasi-steady-state annual cycle in which hydraulic head oscillates close to flotation throughout the ablation zone. Flotation is briefly achieved during the summer melt season along a approx.17 km stretch of the approx.50 km of flowline within the ablation zone. Beneath the majority of the flowline, subglacial conduit storage closes (i.e. obtains minimum radius) during the winter and opens (i.e. obtains maximum radius) during the summer. Along certain stretches of the flowline, the model predicts that subglacial conduit storage remains open throughout the year. A calculated mean glacier water residence time of approx.2.2 years implies that significant amounts of water are stored in the glacier throughout the year. We interpret this residence time as being indicative of the timescale over which the glacier hydrologic system is capable of adjusting to external surface meltwater forcings. Based on in situ ice velocity observations, we suggest that the summer speed-up event generally corresponds to conditions of increasing hydraulic head during inefficient subglacial drainage. Conversely, the slowdown during fall generally corresponds to conditions of decreasing hydraulic head during efficient subglacial drainage.

  5. The annual course of TCA formation in the lower troposphere: a modeling study.

    PubMed

    Folberth, Gerd; Pfister, Gabriele; Baumgartner, Dietmar; Putz, Erich; Weissflog, Ludwig; Elansky, Nikolai P

    2003-01-01

    We present a modeling study investigating the influence of climate conditions and solar radiation intensity on gas-phase trichloroacetic acid (TCA) formation. As part of the ECCA-project (Ecotoxicological Risk in the Caspian Catchment Area), this modeling study uses climate data specific for the two individual climate regimes, namely "Kalmykia" and "Kola Peninsula". A third regime has also been included in this study, namely "Central Europe", which serves as a reference to somehow more moderate climate conditions. The simulations have been performed with a box modeling package (SBOX, photoRACM), which uses Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM) as its chemistry scheme. For this model a mechanism supplement has been developed including the reaction pathways of methyl chloroform photooxidation. The investigations are completed by a detailed sensitivity study addressing the impact of temperature and relative humidity. Atmospheric OH and HO2 concentrations and the NOx/HO2 ratio were identified as the governing quantities controlling the TCA formation trough methyl chloroform oxidation in the gas phase. Model calculations show a TCA production rate ranging between almost zero and 6.5 x 10(3) molecules cm(-3) day(-1) depending on location and season. In the Kalmykia regime the model predicts mean TCA production rates of 1.3 x 10(-4) and 5.4 x 10(-5) microg m(-3) year(-1) for the urban and rural environment, respectively. From the comparison of model calculations with measured TCA burdens in the soil ranging between 130 g m(-3) and 1750 g m(-3) we conclude that TCA formation through methyl chloroform photooxidation in the gas-phase is probably not the principal atmospheric TCA source in this region.

  6. Estimation of Annual Average Soil Loss, Based on Rusle Model in Kallar Watershed, Bhavani Basin, Tamil Nadu, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahaman, S. Abdul; Aruchamy, S.; Jegankumar, R.; Ajeez, S. Abdul

    2015-10-01

    Soil erosion is a widespread environmental challenge faced in Kallar watershed nowadays. Erosion is defined as the movement of soil by water and wind, and it occurs in Kallar watershed under a wide range of land uses. Erosion by water can be dramatic during storm events, resulting in wash-outs and gullies. It can also be insidious, occurring as sheet and rill erosion during heavy rains. Most of the soil lost by water erosion is by the processes of sheet and rill erosion. Land degradation and subsequent soil erosion and sedimentation play a significant role in impairing water resources within sub watersheds, watersheds and basins. Using conventional methods to assess soil erosion risk is expensive and time consuming. A comprehensive methodology that integrates Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), coupled with the use of an empirical model (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation- RUSLE) to assess risk, can identify and assess soil erosion potential and estimate the value of soil loss. GIS data layers including, rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodability (K), slope length and steepness (LS), cover management (C) and conservation practice (P) factors were computed to determine their effects on average annual soil loss in the study area. The final map of annual soil erosion shows a maximum soil loss of 398.58 t/ h-1/ y-1. Based on the result soil erosion was classified in to soil erosion severity map with five classes, very low, low, moderate, high and critical respectively. Further RUSLE factors has been broken into two categories, soil erosion susceptibility (A=RKLS), and soil erosion hazard (A=RKLSCP) have been computed. It is understood that functions of C and P are factors that can be controlled and thus can greatly reduce soil loss through management and conservational measures.

  7. An annual assessment of air quality with the CALIOPE modeling system over Spain.

    PubMed

    Baldasano, J M; Pay, M T; Jorba, O; Gassó, S; Jiménez-Guerrero, P

    2011-05-01

    The CALIOPE project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment, aims at establishing an air quality forecasting system for Spain. With this goal, CALIOPE modeling system was developed and applied with high resolution (4km×4km, 1h) using the HERMES emission model (including emissions of resuspended particles from paved roads) specifically built up for Spain. The present study provides an evaluation and the assessment of the modeling system, coupling WRF-ARW/HERMES/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b for a full-year simulation in 2004 over Spain. The evaluation focuses on the capability of the model to reproduce the temporal and spatial distribution of gas phase species (NO(2), O(3), and SO(2)) and particulate matter (PM10) against ground-based measurements from the Spanish air quality monitoring network. The evaluation of the modeling results on an hourly basis shows a strong dependency of the performance of the model on the type of environment (urban, suburban and rural) and the dominant emission sources (traffic, industrial, and background). The O(3) chemistry is best represented in summer, when mean hourly variability and high peaks are generally well reproduced. The mean normalized error and bias meet the recommendations proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA) and the European regulations. Modeled O(3) shows higher performance for urban than for rural stations, especially at traffic stations in large cities, since stations influenced by traffic emissions (i.e., high-NO(x) environments) are better characterized with a more pronounced daily variability. NO(x)/O(3) chemistry is better represented under non-limited-NO(2) regimes. SO(2) is mainly produced from isolated point sources (power generation and transformation industries) which generate large plumes of high SO(2) concentration affecting the air quality on a local to national scale where the meteorological pattern is crucial. The contribution of mineral dust from the Sahara desert through

  8. Influence of seaway changes during the Pliocene on tropical Pacific climate in the Kiel climate model: mean state, annual cycle, ENSO, and their interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Zhaoyang; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Krebs-Kanzow, Uta; Schneider, Birgit

    2016-08-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific interannual variability in the present-day climate. Available proxy evidence suggests that ENSO also existed during past climates, for example during the Pliocene extending from about 5.3 million to about 2.6 million years BP. Here we investigate the influences of the Panama Seaway closing and Indonesian Passages narrowing, and also of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on the tropical Pacific mean climate and annual cycle, and their combined impact on ENSO during the Pliocene. To this end the Kiel Climate Model), a global climate model, is employed to study the influences of the changing geometry and CO2-concentration. We find that ENSO is sensitive to the closing of the Panama Seaway, with ENSO amplitude being reduced by about 15-20 %. The narrowing of the Indonesian Passages enhances ENSO strength but only by about 6 %. ENSO period changes are modest and the spectral ENSO peak stays rather broad. Annual cycle changes are more prominent. An intensification of the annual cycle by about 50 % is simulated in response to the closing of the Panama Seaway, which is largely attributed to the strengthening of meridional wind stress. In comparison to the closing of the Panama Seaway, the narrowing of the Indonesian Passages only drives relatively weak changes in the annual cycle. A robust relationship is found such that ENSO amplitude strengthens when the annual cycle amplitude weakens.

  9. Influence of seaway changes during the Pliocene on tropical Pacific climate in the Kiel climate model: mean state, annual cycle, ENSO, and their interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Zhaoyang; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Krebs-Kanzow, Uta; Schneider, Birgit

    2017-06-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific interannual variability in the present-day climate. Available proxy evidence suggests that ENSO also existed during past climates, for example during the Pliocene extending from about 5.3 million to about 2.6 million years BP. Here we investigate the influences of the Panama Seaway closing and Indonesian Passages narrowing, and also of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on the tropical Pacific mean climate and annual cycle, and their combined impact on ENSO during the Pliocene. To this end the Kiel Climate Model), a global climate model, is employed to study the influences of the changing geometry and CO2-concentration. We find that ENSO is sensitive to the closing of the Panama Seaway, with ENSO amplitude being reduced by about 15-20 %. The narrowing of the Indonesian Passages enhances ENSO strength but only by about 6 %. ENSO period changes are modest and the spectral ENSO peak stays rather broad. Annual cycle changes are more prominent. An intensification of the annual cycle by about 50 % is simulated in response to the closing of the Panama Seaway, which is largely attributed to the strengthening of meridional wind stress. In comparison to the closing of the Panama Seaway, the narrowing of the Indonesian Passages only drives relatively weak changes in the annual cycle. A robust relationship is found such that ENSO amplitude strengthens when the annual cycle amplitude weakens.

  10. The Effect of Activation Policies on Accession and Continuation in the Army Reserve Components: The Annualized Reserve Component Activation Cost of Leaving Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-08-01

    2001). In keeping with tradition, we term our model the Annualized Reserve Component Activation Cost of Leaving Model, or... terms ; they are added to income and the valuation of active duty, giving a total measure of “utility”—the reservist’s well-being. A reservist decides...retention. Retention is a term usually associated with decisions made at the end of a service obligation. 2. Methodology Our model relates the

  11. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) - Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2008: Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA’s Hierarchical Bayesian model generated (HBM) estimates of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particles with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microns) concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2007 ca...

  12. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) - Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2008: Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA’s Hierarchical Bayesian model generated (HBM) estimates of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particles with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microns) concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2007 ca...

  13. PARADIGM: The Partnership for Advancing Interdisciplinary Global Modeling - Year 4 Annual Report

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-01-01

    Trichodesmium, Euphausia superba ) and multielement limitation and cycling (e.g., C, N, P, Si, Fe). The physical model platform is composed of a hierarchy of...predators), individual keystone species (e.g., Trichodesmium, Euphausia superba ) and multi-element limitation and cycling (e.g., C, N, P, Si, Fe). These

  14. PARADIGM: The Partnership for Advancing Interdisciplinary Global Modeling Annual Report - Year 2

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-02-01

    based on functional groups (e.g., Archaea, diatoms, copepods, gelatinous predators), individual keystone species (e.g., Trichodesmium, Euphausia superba ...individual keystone species (e.g., Trichodesmium, Euphausia superba ) and multi-element limitation and cycling (e.g., C, N, P, Si, Fe). These models

  15. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2006 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2006 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  16. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2004 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2004 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  17. Fire Modeling Institute: FY2012 Annual Report: Bridging scientists and managers

    Treesearch

    Robin J. Innes

    2013-01-01

    The Fire Modeling Institute (FMI) brings the best available fire and fuel science and technology developed throughout the research community to bear in fire-related management issues. Although located within the Fire, Fuel, and Smoke Science Program of the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, FMI is a national and international resource, serving fire...

  18. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2004 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2004 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  19. A Student Environment Model: A Measure of Institutional Effectiveness. AIR 1998 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morris-Baldwin, Darline

    This study traces the development of a student environment model (SEM) at Texas State Technical College (Waco) that is used to assess students' perceptions of their college environment outside the formal classroom, provides baseline data for comparative analyses, establishes goals for student support services, measures program and process…

  20. Studying Faculty Flows Using an Interactive Spreadsheet Model. AIR 1997 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Wayne

    This paper describes a spreadsheet-based faculty flow model developed and implemented at the University of Calgary (Canada) to analyze faculty retirement, turnover, and salary issues. The study examined whether, given expected faculty turnover, the current salary increment system was sustainable in a stable or declining funding environment, and…

  1. An Interactive Model for Studying Student Retention. AIR 1990 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glover, Robert H.; Wilcox, Jerry

    A design for improving the quality of information available for continuous operational study of student retention at the University of Hartford in Connecticut was examined involving a microcomputer based decision support system for student retention research. The system, an interactive modeling approach to conduct longitudinal and comparative…

  2. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) - Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2007: Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model generated (HBM) estimates of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 particles with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microns)concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2007 calen...

  3. Using Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Capital Project Review. AIR 1985 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaynor, Robert K.

    The value of microcomputer modeling tools and spreadsheets to help college institutional researchers analyze proposed capital projects is discussed, along with strengths and weaknesses of different software packages. Capital budgeting is the analysis that supports decisions about the allocation and commitment of funds to long-term capital…

  4. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2002– Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2002 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  5. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2001 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2001 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O 3...

  6. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2003 – Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2003 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  7. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2005 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2005 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  8. Modeling Comparative Daily Enrollment Indicators To Aid Intelligent College Decisions. AIR 2001 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lajubutu, Oyebanjo A.

    This paper shows how three critical enrollment indicators drawn from a relationship database were used to guide planning and management decisions. The paper discusses the guidelines for the development of the model, attributes needed, variables to be calculated, and other issues that may improve the effectiveness and efficiency of daily enrollment…

  9. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2006 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2006 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  10. Faculty Salary Equity: Issues in Regression Model Selection. AIR 1992 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, Nelle

    This paper discusses the determination of college faculty salary inequity and identifies the areas in which human judgment must be used in order to conduct a statistical analysis of salary equity. In addition, it provides some informed guidelines for making those judgments. The paper provides a framework for selecting salary equity models, based…

  11. Using Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Capital Project Review. AIR 1985 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaynor, Robert K.

    The value of microcomputer modeling tools and spreadsheets to help college institutional researchers analyze proposed capital projects is discussed, along with strengths and weaknesses of different software packages. Capital budgeting is the analysis that supports decisions about the allocation and commitment of funds to long-term capital…

  12. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) - Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2007: Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model generated (HBM) estimates of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 particles with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microns)concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2007 calen...

  13. Modeling seasonal to annual carbon balance of Mer Bleue Bog, Ontario, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolking, Steve; Roulet, Nigel T.; Moore, Tim R.; Lafleur, Peter M.; Bubier, Jill L.; Crill, Patrick M.

    2002-07-01

    Northern peatlands contain enormous quantities of organic carbon within a few meters of the atmosphere and play a significant role in the planetary carbon balance. We have developed a new, process-oriented model of the contemporary carbon balance of northern peatlands, the Peatland Carbon Simulator (PCARS). Components of PCARS are (1) vascular and nonvascular plant photosynthesis and respiration, net aboveground and belowground production, and litterfall; (2) aerobic and anaerobic decomposition of peat; (3) production, oxidation, and emission of methane; and (4) dissolved organic carbon loss with drainage water. PCARS has an hourly time step and requires air and soil temperatures, incoming radiation, water table depth, and horizontal drainage as drivers. Simulations predict a complete peatland C balance for one season to several years. A 3-year simulation was conducted for Mer Bleue Bog, near Ottawa, Ontario, and results were compared with multiyear eddy covariance tower CO2 flux and ancillary measurements from the site. Seasonal patterns and the general magnitude of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 were similar for PCARS and the tower data, though PCARS was generally biased toward net ecosystem respiration (i.e., carbon loss). Gross photosynthesis rates (calculated directly in PCARS, empirically inferred from tower data) were in good accord, so the discrepancy between model and measurement was likely related to autotrophic and/or heterotrophic respiration. Modeled and measured methane emission rates were quite low. PCARS has been designed to link with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) land surface model and a global climate model (GCM) to examine climate-peatland carbon feedbacks at regional scales in future analyses.

  14. Bayesian geostatistical model-based estimates of soil-transmitted helminth infection in Nigeria, including annual deworming requirements.

    PubMed

    Oluwole, Akinola S; Ekpo, Uwem F; Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Abe, Eniola M; Olamiju, Francisca O; Isiyaku, Sunday; Okoronkwo, Chukwu; Saka, Yisa; Nebe, Obiageli J; Braide, Eka I; Mafiana, Chiedu F; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2015-04-01

    The acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities. STH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria. We found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets. The predictive risk maps and estimated deworming needs presented here will be helpful for escalating the control

  15. Bayesian Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection in Nigeria, Including Annual Deworming Requirements

    PubMed Central

    Oluwole, Akinola S.; Ekpo, Uwem F.; Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Abe, Eniola M.; Olamiju, Francisca O.; Isiyaku, Sunday; Okoronkwo, Chukwu; Saka, Yisa; Nebe, Obiageli J.; Braide, Eka I.; Mafiana, Chiedu F.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2015-01-01

    Background The acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities. Methodology STH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria. Principal Findings We found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets. Conclusions/Significance The predictive risk maps and estimated

  16. Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand

    PubMed Central

    Blakely, Tony; Cobiac, Linda J.; Cleghorn, Christine L.; Pearson, Amber L.; van der Deen, Frederieke S.; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Nghiem, Nhung; McLeod, Melissa; Wilson, Nick

    2015-01-01

    Background Countries are increasingly considering how to reduce or even end tobacco consumption, and raising tobacco taxes is a potential strategy to achieve these goals. We estimated the impacts on health, health inequalities, and health system costs of ongoing tobacco tax increases (10% annually from 2011 to 2031, compared to no tax increases from 2011 [“business as usual,” BAU]), in a country (New Zealand) with large ethnic inequalities in smoking-related and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden. Methods and Findings We modeled 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, using rich national data by sex, age, and ethnicity, to estimate undiscounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and net health system costs over the remaining life of the 2011 population (n = 4.4 million). A total of 260,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 155,000–419,000) QALYs were gained among the 2011 cohort exposed to annual tobacco tax increases, compared to BAU, and cost savings were US$2,550 million (95% UI: US$1,480 to US$4,000). QALY gains and cost savings took 50 y to peak, owing to such factors as the price sensitivity of youth and young adult smokers. The QALY gains per capita were 3.7 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori because of higher background smoking prevalence and price sensitivity in Māori. Health inequalities measured by differences in 45+ y-old standardized mortality rates between Māori and non-Māori were projected to be 2.31% (95% UI: 1.49% to 3.41%) less in 2041 with ongoing tax rises, compared to BAU. Percentage reductions in inequalities in 2041 were maximal for 45–64-y-old women (3.01%). As with all such modeling, there were limitations pertaining to the model structure and input parameters. Conclusions Ongoing tobacco tax increases deliver sizeable health gains and health sector cost savings and are likely to reduce health inequalities. However, if policy makers are to achieve more rapid reductions in the NCD

  17. Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Blakely, Tony; Cobiac, Linda J; Cleghorn, Christine L; Pearson, Amber L; van der Deen, Frederieke S; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Nghiem, Nhung; McLeod, Melissa; Wilson, Nick

    2015-07-01

    Countries are increasingly considering how to reduce or even end tobacco consumption, and raising tobacco taxes is a potential strategy to achieve these goals. We estimated the impacts on health, health inequalities, and health system costs of ongoing tobacco tax increases (10% annually from 2011 to 2031, compared to no tax increases from 2011 ["business as usual," BAU]), in a country (New Zealand) with large ethnic inequalities in smoking-related and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden. We modeled 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, using rich national data by sex, age, and ethnicity, to estimate undiscounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and net health system costs over the remaining life of the 2011 population (n = 4.4 million). A total of 260,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 155,000-419,000) QALYs were gained among the 2011 cohort exposed to annual tobacco tax increases, compared to BAU, and cost savings were US$2,550 million (95% UI: US$1,480 to US$4,000). QALY gains and cost savings took 50 y to peak, owing to such factors as the price sensitivity of youth and young adult smokers. The QALY gains per capita were 3.7 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori because of higher background smoking prevalence and price sensitivity in Māori. Health inequalities measured by differences in 45+ y-old standardized mortality rates between Māori and non-Māori were projected to be 2.31% (95% UI: 1.49% to 3.41%) less in 2041 with ongoing tax rises, compared to BAU. Percentage reductions in inequalities in 2041 were maximal for 45-64-y-old women (3.01%). As with all such modeling, there were limitations pertaining to the model structure and input parameters. Ongoing tobacco tax increases deliver sizeable health gains and health sector cost savings and are likely to reduce health inequalities. However, if policy makers are to achieve more rapid reductions in the NCD burden and health inequalities, they will also need to

  18. Climate system modeling program. Annual report, September 1, 1991--August 31, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Schimel, D.; Bretherton, F.

    1993-05-14

    The CSMP proposal to NSF contained a description of a project to examine variability of the climate system on decadal-to-contennial time scales, with an emphasis on eventually understanding the processes which led to climate variability over the past one to two centuries as a basis for validating models of potential future changes. The project thus focused first, on understanding, and second on understanding as a basis for the development of validation procedures for models intended for use in climate change applications. The principal activity of the first year of the project was a workshop on one of the major sources of interdecadal variability-the thermohaline circulation (THC) of the oceans. This workshop was focused on review of the cutting edge science of the THC, and on identification of opportunities for future research. The workshop report is attached.

  19. Utilizing Highly Portable Lidar to Characterize and Model Intra-Annual Saltmarsh Dynamism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peri, F.; Paynter, I.; Schaaf, C.; Saenz, E. J.; Genest, D.; Bowen, J. L.; Chen, R. F.

    2016-02-01

    Saltmarshes and other coastal ecosystems are important geochemical transfer zones and offer essential ecosystem services. These functions are perturbed by direct anthropogenic factors, as well as physical and geochemical changes associated with global climate change. Satellite and airborne instruments are used to monitor long-term changes in terrestrial ecosystems at meaningful spatial scales and spatial and temporal resolutions. However, characterizing change in coastal ecosystems is challenging due to high magnitude, high frequency changes in area coverage due to tidal cycles and snowfall; and spectral changes resulting from vegetation phenology. Episodic events such as storm surges can have both acute and lasting effects on area cover. In order to utilize potential monitoring tools, such as the Landsat and the Sentinel satellites, the known components of saltmarsh dynamism must be predicted or modelled. Advances in terrestrial lidar and optical imaging permit the rapid classification, characterization and quantification of saltmarsh components including vegetation by salinity-delineated zone, creeks, pools and pannes. The Compact Biomass Lidar (CBL) from University of Massachusetts Boston has allowed the assessment of large areas of saltmarsh within narrow windows of temporal stability determined by atmospheric, wind and tidal conditions around satellite overpasses. Herein we present results and methods from a year-long study of the relationship between Landsat 7 and 8 data and saltmarsh components classified with a combination of optical and lidar data within seven co-located Landsat pixels at Plum Island Long Term Ecological Research Site (MA, USA). Terrestrial data were collected at the same time as satellite overpass occurred. We also present results from quantitative modelling of saltmarsh hydrology, and predictive modelling of water area cover based on tidal height measurements applied to 3D models of saltmarsh creeks constructed from lidar scans.

  20. Measurement and modeling of advanced coal conversion processes. Annual report, October 1990--September 1991

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, P.R.; Serio, M.A.; Hamblen, D.G.; Smoot, L.D.; Brewster, B.S. |

    1991-12-31

    The overall objective of this program is the development of predictive capability for the design, scale up, simulation, control and feedstock evaluation in advanced coal conversion devices. This program will merge significant advances made in measuring and quantitatively describing the mechanisms in coal conversion behavior. Comprehensive computer codes for mechanistic modeling of entrained-bed gasification. Additional capabilities in predicting pollutant formation will be implemented and the technology will be expanded to fixed-bed reactors.

  1. Mathematical Modeling of Space-time Variations in Acoustic Transmission and Scattering from Schools of Swim Bladder Fish (FY14 Annual Report)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-30

    Mathematical modeling of space-time variations in acoustic transmission and scattering from schools of swim bladder fish (FY14 Annual Report...domain theory of acoustic scattering from, and propagation through, schools of swim bladder fish at and near the swim bladder resonance frequency...coupled differential equations. It incorporates a verified swim bladder scattering kernel for the individual fish, includes multiple scattering

  2. Thermal barrier coating life-prediction model development. Annual report no. 2

    SciTech Connect

    Strangman, T. E.; Neumann, J.; Liu, A.

    1986-10-01

    The program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma-spray (LPPS) or an argon shrouded plasma-spray (ASPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY or (CoNiCrAlY) bond coating and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer, is applied by both Chromalloy, Klock, and Union Carbide. The second type of TBS is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) process by Temescal. The second year of the program was focused on specimen procurement, TMC system characterization, nondestructive evaluation methods, life prediction model development, and TFE731 engine testing of thermal barrier coated blades. Materials testing is approaching completion. Thermomechanical characterization of the TBC systems, with toughness, and spalling strain tests, was completed. Thermochemical testing is approximately two-thirds complete. Preliminary materials life models for the bond coating oxidation and zirconia sintering failure modes were developed. Integration of these life models with airfoil component analysis methods is in progress. Testing of high pressure turbine blades coated with the program TBS systems is in progress in a TFE731 turbofan engine. Eddy current technology feasibility was established with respect to nondestructively measuring zirconia layer thickness of a TBC system.

  3. Modeling and simulation support for ICRF heating of fusion plasmas. Annual report, 1990

    SciTech Connect

    1990-03-15

    Recent experimental, theoretical and computational results have shown the need and usefulness of a combined approach to the design, analysis and evaluation of ICH antenna configurations. The work at the University of Wisconsin (UW) in particular has shown that much needed information on the vacuum operation of ICH antennas can be obtained by a modest experimental and computational effort. These model experiments at UW and SAIC simulations have shown dramatically the potential for positive impact upon the ICRF program. Results of the UW-SAIC joint ICRF antenna analysis effort have been presented at several international meetings and numerous meetings in the United States. The PPPL bay M antenna has been modeled using the ARGUS code. The results of this effort are shown in Appendix C. SAIC has recently begun a collaboration with the ICRF antenna design and analysis group at ORNL. At present there are two separate projects underway. The first is associated with the simulation of and determination of the effect of adding slots in the antenna septum and side walls. The second project concerns the modeling and simulation of the ORNL folded waveguide (FWG) concept.

  4. Regional modeling of the water masses and circulation annual variability at the Southern Brazilian Continental Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendonça, L. F.; Souza, R. B.; Aseff, C. R. C.; Pezzi, L. P.; Möller, O. O.; Alves, R. C. M.

    2017-02-01

    The Southern Brazilian Continental Shelf (SBCS) is one of the more productive areas for fisheries in Brazilian waters. The water masses and the dynamical processes of the region present a very seasonal behavior that imprint strong effects in the ecosystem and the weather of the area and its vicinity. This paper makes use of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for studying the water mass distribution and circulation variability in the SBCS during the year of 2012. Model outputs were compared to in situ, historical observations and to satellite data. The model was able to reproduce the main thermohaline characteristics of the waters dominating the SBCS and the adjacent region. The mixing between the Subantarctic Shelf Water and the Subtropical Shelf Water, known as the Subtropical Shelf Front (STSF), presented a clear seasonal change in volume. As a consequence of the mixing and of the seasonal oscillation of the STSF position, the stability of the water column inside the SBCS also changes seasonally. Current velocities and associated transports estimated for the Brazil Current (BC) and for the Brazilian Coastal Current (BCC) agree with previous measurements and estimates, stressing the fact that the opposite flow of the BCC occurring during winter in the study region is about 2 orders of magnitude smaller than that of the BC. Seasonal maps of simulated Mean Kinetic Energy and Eddy Kinetic Energy demonstrate the known behavior of the BC and stressed the importance of the mean coastal flow off Argentina throughout the year.

  5. Measurements and models for hazardous chemical and mixed wastes. 1998 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Holcomb, C.; Watts, L.; Outcalt, S.L.; Louie, B.; Mullins, M.E.; Rogers, T.N.

    1998-06-01

    'Aqueous waste of various chemical compositions constitutes a significant fraction of the total waste produced by industry in the US. A large quantity of the waste generated by the US chemical process industry is waste water. In addition, the majority of the waste inventory at DoE sites previously used for nuclear weapons production is aqueous waste. Large quantities of additional aqueous waste are expected to be generated during the clean-up of those sites. In order to effectively treat, safely handle, and properly dispose of these wastes, accurate and comprehensive knowledge of basic thermophysical property information is paramount. This knowledge will lead to huge savings by aiding in the design and optimization of treatment and disposal processes. The main objectives of this project are: Develop and validate models that accurately predict the phase equilibria and thermodynamic properties of hazardous aqueous systems necessary for the safe handling and successful design of separation and treatment processes for hazardous chemical and mixed wastes. Accurately measure the phase equilibria and thermodynamic properties of a representative system (water + acetone + isopropyl alcohol + sodium nitrate) over the applicable ranges of temperature, pressure, and composition to provide the pure component, binary, ternary, and quaternary experimental data required for model development. As of May, 1998, nine months into the first year of a three year project, the authors have made significant progress in the database development, have begun testing the models, and have been performance testing the apparatus on the pure components.'

  6. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2011

    SciTech Connect

    David W. Nigg; Devin A. Steuhm

    2011-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or 'Core Modeling Update') Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its first full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (SCALE, KENO-6, HELIOS, NEWT, and ATTILA) have been installed at the INL under various permanent sitewide license agreements and corresponding baseline models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational, demonstrating the basic feasibility of these code packages for their intended purpose. Furthermore, a

  7. Towards a Process-based Representation of Annual Crops Within the Land Surface Model JULES

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van den Hoof, C.; Vidale, P.

    2008-05-01

    The purpose of this work is to introduce a generic crop structure within the Joint UK Land surface Exchange Scheme JULES (Cox, 1998) that is able to evaluate the interaction between growing crops and the environment at large scales for a wide range of atmospheric conditions. JULES was designed to simulate land surface processes in natural ecosystems. The importance of representing agricultural land within global biosphere models has been pointed out in many studies (De Noblet-Ducoudre et al., 2004; Bondeau 2005 et al.). Prior to any model development, the sensitivity of JULES to morphological and physiological differences between natural vegetation and crops has been investigated by reparameterising a natural C3 grass into a C3 crop. For a case study of fallow versus wheat at Grignon (France), the model output shows important soil water savings after crop harvest at the beginning of the summer. Owing to the lack of a rooting system, the deeper soil moisture cannot contribute anymore to the moisture flux to the atmosphere. On a shorter timescale, the harvest, and by consequence the sudden appearance of bare soil, also disrupt the energy and momentum fluxes between surface and atmosphere. Having established the sensitivity of the JULES system to a crop-like forcing, some components from the crop model SUCROS (Goudriaan and van Laar, 1994) that are relevant to the global water, energy and carbon cycles, have been introduced in JULES. The new version of JULES, denoted by JULES-SUCROS, incorporates crops and natural vegetation within a single modelling framework, without discontinuity in the photosynthesis-assimilation scheme between both vegetation types. Simulations have been performed with JULES-SUCROS for wheat at the Grignon site in current and doubled CO2 atmospheric conditions. Changing atmospheric conditions in JULES-SUCROS affects the sowing date and the length of the growing season. The results show that the positive effect of the CO2 fertilisation partly

  8. State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleets - Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    SciTech Connect

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. Covered fleets may meet their EPAct requirements through one of two compliance methods: Standard Compliance or Alternative Compliance. For model year (MY) 2015, the compliance rate with this program for the more than 3011 reporting fleets was 100%. More than 294 fleets used Standard Compliance and exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 acquisition requirements by 8% through acquisitions alone. The seven covered fleets that used Alternative Compliance exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 petroleum use reduction requirements by 46%.

  9. The modeling of complex continua: Fundamental obstacles and grand challenges. Annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    The research is divided into: discontinuities and adaptive computation, chaotic flows, dispersion of flow in porous media, and nonlinear waves and nonlinear materials. The research program has emphasized innovative computation and theory. The approach depends on abstracting mathematical concepts and computational methods from individual applications to a wide range of problems involving complex continua. The generic difficulties in the modeling of continua that guide this abstraction are multiple length and time scales, microstructures (bubbles, droplets, vortices, crystal defects), and chaotic or random phenomena described by a statistical formulation.

  10. Using an Ablation Gradient Model to Characterize Annual Glacial Melt Contribution to Major Rivers in High Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brodzik, M. J.; Armstrong, R. L.; Khalsa, S. J. S.; Painter, T. H.; Racoviteanu, A.; Rittger, K.

    2014-12-01

    Ice melt from mountain glaciers can represent a significant contribution to freshwater hydrological budgets, along with seasonal snow melt, rainfall and groundwater. In the rivers of High Asia, understanding the proportion of glacier ice melt is critical for water resource management of irrigation and planning for hydropower generation and human consumption. Current climate conditions are producing heterogeneous glacier responses across the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan ranges. However, it is not yet clear how contrasting glacier patterns affect regional water resources. For example, in the Upper Indus basin, estimates of glacial contribution to runoff are often not distinguished from seasonal snow contribution, and vary widely, from as little as 15% to as much as 55%. While many studies are based on reasonable concepts, most are based on assumptions uninformed by actual snow or ice cover measurements. While straightforward temperature index models have been used to estimate glacier runoff in some Himalayan basins, application of these models in larger Himalayan basins is limited by difficulties in estimating key model parameters, particularly air temperature. Estimating glacial area from the MODIS Permanent Snow and Ice Extent (MODICE) product for the years 2000-2013, with recently released Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTMGL3) elevation data, we use a simple ablation gradient approach to calculate an upper limit on the contribution of clean glacier ice melt to streamflow data. We present model results for the five major rivers with glaciated headwaters in High Asia: the Bramaputra, Ganges, Indus, Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Using GRDC historical discharge records, we characterize the annual contribution from glacier ice melt. We use MODICE interannual trends in each basin to estimate glacier ice melt uncertainties. Our results are being used in the USAID project, Contribution to High Asia Runoff from Ice and Snow (CHARIS), to inform regional-scale planning for

  11. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2010

    SciTech Connect

    Rahmat Aryaeinejad; Douglas S. Crawford; Mark D. DeHart; George W. Griffith; D. Scott Lucas; Joseph W. Nielsen; David W. Nigg; James R. Parry; Jorge Navarro

    2010-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or “Core Modeling Update”) Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  12. Annual report, October 1980-September 1981 Multimedia radionuclide exposure assessment modeling.

    SciTech Connect

    Whelan, G.; Onishi, Y.; Simmons, C.S.; Horst, T.W.; Gupta, S.K.; Orgill, M.M.; Newbill, C.A.

    1982-12-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) are jointly developing a methodology for assessing exposures of the air, water, and plants to radionuclides as part of an overall development effort of a radionuclide disposal site evaluation methodology. Work in FY-1981 continued the development of the Multimedia Contaminant Environmental Exposure Assessment (MCEA) methodology and initiated an assessment of radionuclide migration in Los Alamos and Pueblo Canyons, New Mexico, using the methodology. The AIRTRAN model was completed, briefly tested, and documented. In addition, a literature search for existing validation data for AIRTRAN was performed. The feasibility and advisability of including the UNSAT moisture flow model as a submodel of the terrestrial code BIOTRAN was assessed. A preliminary application of the proposed MCEA methodology, as it related to the Mortandad-South Mortandad Canyon site in New Mexico is discussed. This preliminary application represented a scaled-down version of the methodology in which only the terrestrial, overland, and surface water components were used. An update describing the progress in the assessment of radionuclide migration in Los Alamos and Pueblo Canyons is presented. 38 references, 47 figures, 11 tables.

  13. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2012

    SciTech Connect

    David W. Nigg, Principal Investigator; Kevin A. Steuhm, Project Manager

    2012-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to properly verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the next anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014-2015 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its third full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (HELIOS, KENO6/SCALE, NEWT/SCALE, ATTILA, and an extended implementation of MCNP5) has been installed at the INL under various licensing arrangements. Corresponding models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational with all five codes, demonstrating the basic feasibility of the new code packages for their intended purpose. Of particular importance, a set of as-run core

  14. Parallel algorithms for modeling flow in permeable media. Annual report, February 15, 1995 - February 14, 1996

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Pope; K. Sephernoori; D.C. McKinney; M.F. Wheeler

    1996-03-15

    This report describes the application of distributed-memory parallel programming techniques to a compositional simulator called UTCHEM. The University of Texas Chemical Flooding reservoir simulator (UTCHEM) is a general-purpose vectorized chemical flooding simulator that models the transport of chemical species in three-dimensional, multiphase flow through permeable media. The parallel version of UTCHEM addresses solving large-scale problems by reducing the amount of time that is required to obtain the solution as well as providing a flexible and portable programming environment. In this work, the original parallel version of UTCHEM was modified and ported to CRAY T3D and CRAY T3E, distributed-memory, multiprocessor computers using CRAY-PVM as the interprocessor communication library. Also, the data communication routines were modified such that the portability of the original code across different computer architectures was mad possible.

  15. Computational model for armor penetration. Annual report No. 2, October 1979-October 1980

    SciTech Connect

    Erlich, D.C.; Seaman, L.; Curran, D.R.; Shockey, D.A.; Caligiuri, R.D.

    1987-10-01

    Results are reported from the second year of a three-year BRL/AMMRC/SRI program to develop a computational capability for predicting the behind-the-armor fragment environment for spaced armor attacked by long-rod penetrators. The baseline materials chosen were rolled homogenous steel armor (RHA) and depleted uranium (DU) for the penetrator. Phenomenological studies involving both quarter and full-scale ballistics tests at velocities up to 1.5 km/s and obliquities from 0 to 70 clearly revealed shear banding to be the principal phenomenon controlling both penetrator erosion and armor failure. A detailed, phenomenological scenario for oblique armor penetration is given . Contained fragmenting cylinder (CFC) experiments were performed to characterize the resistance of RHA to shear banding; a significant anisotropy was observed. The SHEAR3 computational model for shear banding was refined and calibrated with respect to previously obtained data from CFC experiments using 4340 steel (Rc40).

  16. Annual carbon dioxide cycle in a montane soil: observations, modeling, and implications for weathering

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, D.K.; Cerling, T.E.

    1987-12-01

    Profiles of CO/sub 2/ concentrations in soil and snow, soil respiration, soil and snow temperatures, and shallow ground water chemistry were monitored from March 1984 to July 1985 in a montane region neat Brighton, Utah. Significant seasonal variations in the concentrations of CO/sub 2/ in soil and snow occurred, and two principal rise-decline cycles were observed. During the first cycle the concentration of soil CO/sub 2/ at 35 cm rose from 4200 ppmv in July to a maximum of 12,400 ppmv in August and then declined to 4300 ppmv by October. This cycle is attributed to the changing production rate of soil CO/sub 2/ during the growing season. During the second cycle the concentration of CO/sub 2/ at 35 cm began to rise in November, reached a maximum of 7200 ppmv in early spring, and quickly declined to 3200 ppmv by late spring shortly after the snow cover had melted. This cycle is attributed to deterioration in the exchange of CO/sub 2/ between the soil and atmosphere due to a deep snowpack. A model based on Fick's second law of diffusion was developed to account for the temporal and spatial distribution of soil CO/sub 2/. The model predicts that soil CO/sub 2/ at 35 cm is increased by as much as 15 times due to the deep snowpack. The elevated concentration of soil CO/sub 2/, abundance of water, and above-freezing soil temperatures imply that significant soil weathering occurs during the winter in montane regions.

  17. Workforce Projections 2010-2020: Annual Supply and Demand Forecasting Models for Physical Therapists Across the United States.

    PubMed

    Landry, Michel D; Hack, Laurita M; Coulson, Elizabeth; Freburger, Janet; Johnson, Michael P; Katz, Richard; Kerwin, Joanne; Smith, Megan H; Wessman, Henry C Bud; Venskus, Diana G; Sinnott, Patricia L; Goldstein, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Health human resources continue to emerge as a critical health policy issue across the United States. The purpose of this study was to develop a strategy for modeling future workforce projections to serve as a basis for analyzing annual supply of and demand for physical therapists across the United States into 2020. A traditional stock-and-flow methodology or model was developed and populated with publicly available data to produce estimates of supply and demand for physical therapists by 2020. Supply was determined by adding the estimated number of physical therapists and the approximation of new graduates to the number of physical therapists who immigrated, minus US graduates who never passed the licensure examination, and an estimated attrition rate in any given year. Demand was determined by using projected US population with health care insurance multiplied by a demand ratio in any given year. The difference between projected supply and demand represented a shortage or surplus of physical therapists. Three separate projection models were developed based on best available data in the years 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively. Based on these projections, demand for physical therapists in the United States outstrips supply under most assumptions. Workforce projection methodology research is based on assumptions using imperfect data; therefore, the results must be interpreted in terms of overall trends rather than as precise actuarial data-generated absolute numbers from specified forecasting. Outcomes of this projection study provide a foundation for discussion and debate regarding the most effective and efficient ways to influence supply-side variables so as to position physical therapists to meet current and future population demand. Attrition rates or permanent exits out of the profession can have important supply-side effects and appear to have an effect on predicting future shortage or surplus of physical therapists. © 2016 American Physical Therapy

  18. MODELLING THERMODYNAMICS OF ALLOYS FOR FUSION APPLICATION . Semi annual report for the Fusion Program

    SciTech Connect

    Caro, J A

    2007-07-31

    This research has two main objectives: (1) The development of computational tools to evaluate alloy properties, using the information contained in thermodynamic functions. We aim at improving the ability of classical potentials to account for complex alloy behavior; and (2) The application of these tools to predict properties of alloys under irradiation. Atomistic simulations of alloys at the empirical level face the challenge of correctly modeling basic thermodynamic properties. In the periods reported previously we develop a methodology to generalize many-body classic potentials to incorporate complex formation energy curves. Application to Fe-Cr allows us to predict the implications of the ab initio results of formation energy on the phase diagram of this alloy and to get a detailed insight into the processes leading to precipitation of {alpha}{prime} phase under irradiation. In particular in this period we report on the consequences of the negative heat of formation at low Cr composition on the short range order SRO existing in the {alpha} phase. We elaborate a simple description of SRO on a two phase alloy and compare the predictions with experiments. We provide a key to rationalize a diversity of experiments on SRO versus annealing time or irradiation dose.

  19. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2013

    SciTech Connect

    Nigg, David W.

    2013-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for effective application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  20. High-temperature pyrolysis mechanisms of coal model compounds. 1990 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Penn, J.H.; Owens, W.H.

    1991-01-01

    The degradation of the carboxylic acid group has been examined with respect to potential pretreatment strategies for fossil fuel conversion processes. In one potential pretreatment strategy involving cation exchange of the carboxylic acid group, a series of benzoic acid and stearic acid salts have been chosen to model the ``tight`` carboxylic acids of immature fossil fuel feedstocks and have been pyrolyzed with an entrained flow reactor. Our preliminary results indicate that Group I and II salts yield primarily the parent acid. Benzoate salts also yield small amounts of benzene while the stearic acid salts give no other detectable products. In two alternative treatment strategies, esterification and anhydride preparation have also been accomplished with these compounds being subjected to the entrained flow reactor conditions. The benzoate esters give a number of products, such as benzaldehyde, benzene, and low MW gases. The formation of these compounds is extremely dependent on pyrolysis conditions and alkoxy chain length. A xenon flashlamp and an entrained flow reactor have been used to heat organic substrates to varying temperatures using different heating rates. Ultrarapid flashlamp pyrolysis (heating rate>10{sup 50}C/s) has been performed. Since the ultrarapid pyrolysis products differ from those observed with traditional heating techniques and differ from the products formed photochemically, the flashlamp pyrolysis products are attributed to high temperature thermal activation.

  1. Modeling cloud microphysics using a two-moments hybrid bulk/bin scheme for use in Titan’s climate models: Application to the annual and diurnal cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgalat, J.; Rannou, P.; Cours, T.; Rivière, E. D.

    2014-03-01

    Microphysical models describe the way aerosols and clouds behave in the atmosphere. Two approaches are generally used to model these processes. While the first approach discretizes processes and aerosols size distributions on a radius grid (bin scheme), the second uses bulk parameters of the size distribution law (its mathematical moments) to represent the evolution of the particle population (moment scheme). However, with the latter approach, one needs to have an a priori knowledge of the size distributions. Moments scheme for Cloud microphysics modeling have been used and enhanced since decades for climate studies of the Earth. Most of the tools are based on Log-Normal law which are suitable for Earth, Mars or Venus. On Titan, due to the fractal structure of the aerosols, the size distributions do not follow a log-normal law. Then using a moment scheme in that case implies to define the description of the size distribution and to review the equations that are widely published in the literature. Our objective is to enable the use of a fully described microphysical model using a moment scheme within a Titan's Global Climate Model. As a first step in this direction, we present here a moment scheme dedicated to clouds microphysics adapted for Titan's atmosphere conditions. We perform comparisons between the two kinds of schemes (bin and moments) using an annual and a diurnal cycle, to check the validity of our moment description. The various forcing produce a time-variable cloud layer in relation with the temperature cycle. We compare the column opacities and the temperature for the two schemes, for each cycles. We also compare more detailed quantities as the opacity distribution of the cloud events at different periods of these cycles. Results show that differences between the two approaches have a small impact on the temperature (less than 1 K) and range between 1% and 10% for haze and clouds opacities. Both models behave in similar way when forced by an annual and

  2. Using flowering and heat-loss models for improving greenhouse energy-use efficiency in annual bedding plant production

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    In temperate climates, annual bedding plants are typically produced in heated greenhouses from late winter through early summer. Temperature, photoperiod, light intensity, and transplant date are commonly manipulated during commercial production so that plants are in flower for predetermined market ...

  3. Modelling deposition and air concentration of reduced nitrogen in Poland and sensitivity to variability in annual meteorology.

    PubMed

    Kryza, Maciej; Dore, Anthony J; Błaś, Marek; Sobik, Mieczysław

    2011-04-01

    The relative contribution of reduced nitrogen to acid and eutrophic deposition in Europe has increased recently as a result of European policies which have been successful in reducing SO(2) and NO(x) emissions but have had smaller impacts on ammonia (NH(3)) emissions. In this paper the Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model was used to calculate the spatial patterns of annual average ammonia and ammonium (NH(4)(+)) air concentrations and reduced nitrogen (NH(x)) dry and wet deposition with a 5 km × 5 km grid for years 2002-2005. The modelled air concentrations of NH(3) and dry deposition of NH(x) show similar spatial patterns for all years considered. The largest year to year changes were found for wet deposition, which vary considerably with precipitation amount. The FRAME modelled air concentrations and wet deposition are in reasonable agreement with available measurements (Pearson's correlation coefficients above 0.6 for years 2002-2005), and with spatial patterns of concentrations and deposition of NH(x) reported with the EMEP results, but show larger spatial gradients. The error statistics show that the FRAME model results are in better agreement with measurements if compared with EMEP estimates. The differences in deposition budgets calculated with FRAME and EMEP do not exceed 17% for wet and 6% for dry deposition, with FRAME estimates higher than for EMEP wet deposition for modelled period and lower or equal for dry deposition. The FRAME estimates of wet deposition budget are lower than the measurement-based values reported by the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection of Poland, with the differences by approximately 3%. Up to 93% of dry and 53% of wet deposition of NH(x) in Poland originates from national sources. Over the western part of Poland and mountainous areas in the south, transboundary transport can contribute over 80% of total (dry + wet) NH(x) deposition. The spatial pattern of the relative contribution of

  4. A systematic approach to selecting the best probability models for annual maximum rainfalls - A case study using data in Ontario (Canada)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Truong-Huy; El Outayek, Sarah; Lim, Sun Hee; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

    2017-10-01

    Many probability distributions have been developed to model the annual maximum rainfall series (AMS). However, there is no general agreement as to which distribution should be used due to the lack of a suitable evaluation method. This paper presents hence a general procedure for assessing systematically the performance of ten commonly used probability distributions in rainfall frequency analyses based on their descriptive as well as predictive abilities. This assessment procedure relies on an extensive set of graphical and numerical performance criteria to identify the most suitable models that could provide the most accurate and most robust extreme rainfall estimates. The proposed systematic assessment approach has been shown to be more efficient and more robust than the traditional model selection method based on only limited goodness-of-fit criteria. To test the feasibility of the proposed procedure, an illustrative application was carried out using 5-min, 1-h, and 24-h annual maximum rainfall data from a network of 21 raingages located in the Ontario region in Canada. Results have indicated that the GEV, GNO, and PE3 models were the best models for describing the distribution of daily and sub-daily annual maximum rainfalls in this region. The GEV distribution, however, was preferred to the GNO and PE3 because it was based on a more solid theoretical basis for representing the distribution of extreme random variables.

  5. Annual Energy Outlook

    EIA Publications

    2017-01-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook provides modeled projections of domestic energy markets through 2050, and includes cases with different assumptions of macroeconomic growth, world oil prices, technological progress, and energy policies. With strong domestic production and relatively flat demand, the United States becomes a net energy exporter over the projection period in most cases.

  6. Annual Energy Outlook

    EIA Publications

    2017-01-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook provides modeled projections of domestic energy markets through 2050, and includes cases with different assumptions of macroeconomic growth, world oil prices, technological progress, and energy policies. With strong domestic production and relatively flat demand, the United States becomes a net energy exporter over the projection period in most cases.

  7. Annual research briefs, 1994

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    Briefs of the 1994 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulence Research are presented. Subjects covered include turbulence combustion, large eddy simulation, Reynolds-averaged turbulence modeling, turbulence control, postprocessing, sound generation, and turbulence physics.

  8. Monsoons and ITCZ in TRACMIP, the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and Continent - Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biasutti, M.; Voigt, A.; Scheff, J.

    2016-12-01

    TRACMIP consists of a set of five experiments performed by an ensemble of GCMs and conceived as a link in the hierarchy between the CFMIP/CMIP5 Aqua experiments and the CMIP5 comprehensive simulations. The basic configuration is an aquaplanet AGCM coupled to a slab ocean. By using interactive sea-surface temperatures and seasonally-varying insolation TRACMIP fills the gap between Aquaplanets with prescribed SSTs and fully-coupled realistic CMIP5 simulations. Adding to the basic Aquaplanet configuration a highly-idealized tropical continent allows the investigation of the role of zonal asymmetries in the dynamics of the ITCZ and of the source of the observed differences between land convection and monsoon circulations on one hand, and oceanic convection in the ITCZ and the Warm Pool on the other. Finally, by including both key forcings of the future (greenhouse gases) and of the Holocene (orbital changes in insolation), TRACMIP contributes to the "past to future (P2F)" efforts to connect the climate response to different forcings via a basic understanding of the mechanisms at play. TRACMIP includes the participation of both CMIP5 comprehensive climate models and a simplified model that neglects cloud and water-vapor radiative feedbacks, thus allowing a more direct connection between GCMs results and theoretical studies of tropical rain belt dynamics. We will present preliminary results from the ensemble, aiming to examine the mechanisms controlling tropical precipitation in the context of forced variability. First and foremost, we are interested in the largest forced variation: the annual cycle. We will draw out the similarities and the distinctions between the climatologies of the oceanic and continental rain bands, study the ways in which the two interact with each other, and investigate the extent to which established zonal-mean ITCZ frameworks contain information about regional rainfall characteristics. Second, we will investigate the response to quadrupling the

  9. Implications for water use of a shift from annual to perennial crops - A stochastic modelling approach based on a trait meta-analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vico, Giulia; Brunsell, Nathaniel

    2017-04-01

    The projected population growth and changes in climate and dietary habits will further increase the pressure on water resources globally. Within precision farming, a host of technical solutions has been developed to reduce water consumption for agricultural uses. The next frontier for a more sustainable agriculture is the combination of reduced water requirements with enhanced ecosystem services. Currently, staple grains are obtained from annuals crops. A shift from annual to perennial crops has been suggested as a way to enhance ecosystem services. In fact, perennial plants, with their continuous soil cover and the higher allocation of resources to the below ground, contribute to the reduction of soil erosion and nutrient losses, while enhancing carbon sequestration in the root zone. Nevertheless, the net effect of a shift to perennial crops on water use for agriculture is still unknown, despite its relevance for the sustainability of such a shift. We explore here the implications for water management at the field- to farm-scale of a shift from annual to perennial crops, under rainfed and irrigated agriculture. A probabilistic description of the soil water balance and crop development is employed to quantify water requirements and yields and their inter-annual variability, as a function of rainfall patterns, soil and crop features. Optimal irrigation strategies are thus defined in terms of maximization of yield and minimization of required irrigation volumes and their inter-annual variability. The probabilistic model is parameterized based on an extensive meta-analysis of traits of co-generic annual and perennial species to explore the consequences for water requirements of shifting from annual to perennial crops under current and future climates. We show that the larger and more developed roots of perennial crops may allow a better exploitation of soil water resources and a reduction of yield variability with respect to annual species. At the same time, perennial

  10. The dynamic of annual carbon allocation to wood in European forests is consistent with a combined source-sink limitation of growth: implications for modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillemot, J.; Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Dufrêne, E.; François, C.; Soudani, K.; Ourcival, J. M.; Delpierre, N.

    2015-02-01

    The extent to which forest growth is limited by carbon (C) supply (source control) or by cambial activity (sink control) will condition the response of trees to global changes. However, the physiological processes responsible for the limitation of forest growth are still under debate. The aim of this study is to evaluate the key drivers of the annual carbon allocation to wood along large soil and climate regional gradients in five tree species representative of the main European forest biomes (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea, Quercus ilex, Quercus robur and Picea abies). Combining field measurements and process-based simulations at 49 sites (931 site-years), we assessed the stand biomass growth dependences at both inter-site and inter-annual scales. Specifically, the relative influence of forest C balance (source control), direct environmental control (water and temperature controls of sink activity) and allocation adjustments related to age, past climate conditions, competition intensity and soil nutrient availability on growth were quantified. The inter-site variability in stand C allocation to wood was predominantly driven by an age-related decline. The direct control of temperature or water stress on sink activity (i.e. independently from their effects on C supply) exerted a strong influence on the annual stand woody growth in all the species considered, including deciduous temperate species. The lagged effect of the past environment conditions was a significant driver of the annual C allocation to wood. Carbon supply appeared to strongly limit growth only in deciduous temperate species. We provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of annual carbon allocation to wood in European forests. Our study supports the premise that European forest growth is under a complex control including both source and sink limitations. The relative influences of the different growth drivers strongly vary across years and spatial ecological gradients. We suggest a

  11. Annual Crop Type Classification of the U.S. Great Plains for 2000 - 2011: An Application of Classification Tree Modeling using Remote Sensing and Ancillary Environmental Data (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howard, D. M.; Wylie, B. K.

    2013-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to increase spatial and temporal availability of crop classification data using reliable source data that have the potential of being applied on local, regional, national, and global levels. This study implemented classification tree modeling to map annual crop types throughout the U.S. Great Plains from 2000 - 2011. Classification tree modeling has been shown in numerous studies to be an effective tool for developing classification models. In this study, nearly 18 million crop observation points, derived from annual U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) Cropland Data Layers (CDLs), were used in the training, development, and validation of a classification tree crop type model (CTM). Each observation point was further defined by weekly Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) readings, annual climatic conditions, soil conditions, and a number of other biogeophysical environmental characteristics. The CTM accounted for the most prevalent crop types in the area, including, corn, soybeans, winter wheat, spring wheat, cotton, sorghum, and alfalfa. Other crops that did not fit into any of these classes were identified and grouped into a miscellaneous class. An 87% success rate was achieved on the classification of 1.8 million observation points (10% of total observation points) that were withheld from training. The CTM was applied to create annual crop maps of the U.S. Great Plains for 2000 - 2011 at a spatial resolution of 250 meters. Product validation was performed by comparing county acreage derived from the modeled crop maps and county acreage data from the USDA NASS Survey Program for each crop type and each year. Greater than 15,000 county records from 2001 - 2010 were compared with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of r = 0.87.

  12. Optimizing estimates of annual variations and trends in geocenter motion and J2 from a combination of GRACE data and geophysical models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Yu; Riva, Riccardo; Ditmar, Pavel

    2016-11-01

    The focus of the study is optimizing the technique for estimating geocenter motion and variations in J2 by combining data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission with output from an Ocean Bottom Pressure model and a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model. First, we conduct an end-to-end numerical simulation study. We generate input time-variable gravity field observations by perturbing a synthetic Earth model with realistically simulated errors. We show that it is important to avoid large errors at short wavelengths and signal leakage from land to ocean, as well as to account for self-attraction and loading effects. Second, the optimal implementation strategy is applied to real GRACE data. We show that the estimates of annual amplitude in geocenter motion are in line with estimates from other techniques, such as satellite laser ranging (SLR) and global GPS inversion. At the same time, annual amplitudes of C10 and C11 are increased by about 50% and 20%, respectively, compared to estimates based on Swenson et al. (2008). Estimates of J2 variations are by about 15% larger than SLR results in terms of annual amplitude. Linear trend estimates are dependent on the adopted GIA model but still comparable to some SLR results.

  13. Time series evaluation of landscape dynamics using annual Landsat imagery and spatial statistical modeling: Evidence from the Phoenix metropolitan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Chao; Myint, Soe W.; Rey, Sergio J.; Li, Wenwen

    2017-06-01

    Urbanization is a natural and social process involving simultaneous changes to the Earth's land systems, energy flow, demographics, and the economy. Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of urbanization is increasingly important for policy formulation, decision making, and natural resource management. A combination of satellite remote sensing and patch-based models has been widely adopted to characterize landscape changes at various spatial and temporal scales. Nevertheless, the validity of this type of framework in identifying long-term changes, especially subtle or gradual land modifications is seriously challenged. In this paper, we integrate annual image time series, continuous spatial indices, and non-parametric trend analysis into a spatiotemporal study of landscape dynamics over the Phoenix metropolitan area from 1991 to 2010. We harness local indicators of spatial dependence and modified Mann-Kendall test to describe the monotonic trends in the quantity and spatial arrangement of two important land use land cover types: vegetation and built-up areas. Results suggest that declines in vegetation and increases in built-up areas are the two prevalent types of changes across the region. Vegetation increases mostly occur at the outskirts where new residential areas are developed from natural desert. A sizable proportion of vegetation declines and built-up increases are seen in the central and southeast part. Extensive land conversion from agricultural fields into urban land use is one important driver of vegetation declines. The xeriscaping practice also contributes to part of vegetation loss and an increasingly heterogeneous landscape. The quantitative framework proposed in this study provides a pathway to effective landscape mapping and change monitoring from a spatial statistical perspective.

  14. AAPCC Annual Reports

    MedlinePlus

    ... Annual Report 2000 Annual Report 1999 Annual Report Poison Data National Poison Data System Uses for NPDS ... Elements NPDS FAQs Annual Reports Find Your Local Poison Center Poison centers offer free, private, confidential medical ...

  15. ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weisheimer, A.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Palmer, T. N.; Alessandri, A.; Arribas, A.; Déqué, M.; Keenlyside, N.; MacVean, M.; Navarra, A.; Rogel, P.

    2009-11-01

    A new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The multi-model outperforms any of the single-models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because of reduced RMS errors and enhanced ensemble dispersion at all lead-times. Systematic errors are considerably reduced over the previous generation (DEMETER). Probabilistic skill scores show higher skill for the new multi-model ensemble than for DEMETER in the 4-6 month forecast range. However, substantially improved models would be required to achieve strongly statistical significant skill increases. The combination of ENSEMBLES and DEMETER into a grand multi-model ensemble does not improve the forecast skill further. Annual-range hindcasts show anomaly correlation skill of ˜0.5 up to 14 months ahead. A wide range of output from the multi-model simulations is becoming publicly available and the international community is invited to explore the full scientific potential of these data.

  16. Land use regression models to estimate the annual and seasonal spatial variability of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter in Tehran, Iran.

    PubMed

    Amini, Hassan; Taghavi-Shahri, Seyed Mahmood; Henderson, Sarah B; Naddafi, Kazem; Nabizadeh, Ramin; Yunesian, Masud

    2014-08-01

    The Middle Eastern city of Tehran, Iran has poor air quality compared with cities of similar size in Europe and North America. Spatial annual and seasonal patterns of SO2 and PM10 concentrations were estimated using land use regression (LUR) methods applied to data from 21 air quality monitoring stations. A systematic algorithm for LUR model building was developed to select variables based on (1) consistency with a priori assumptions about the assumed directions of the effects, (2) a p-value of <0.1 for each predictor, (3) improvements to the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) R(2), (4) a multicollinearity index called the variance inflation factor, and (5) a grouped (leave-25%-out) cross-validation (GCV) for final model. In addition, several new predictive variables and variable types were explored. The annual mean concentrations of SO2 and PM10 across the stations were 38 ppb and 100.8 μg/m(3), respectively. The R(2) values ranged from 0.69 to 0.84 for SO2 models and from 0.62 to 0.67 for PM10 models. The LOOCV and GCV R(2) values ranged, respectively, from 0.40 to 0.56 and 0.40 to 0.50 for the SO2 models; they were 0.48 to 0.57 and 0.50 to 0.55, respectively, for the PM10 models. There were clear differences between the SO2 and PM10 models, but the warmer and cooler season models were consistent with the annual models for both pollutants. Although there was limited similarity between the SO2 and PM10 predictive variables, measures of street density and proximity to airport or air cargo facilities were consistent across both pollutants. In 2010, the entire population of Tehran lived in areas where the World Health Organization guidelines for 24-hour mean SO2 (7 ppb) and annual average PM10 (20 μg/m(3)) were exceeded. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. The dynamic of the annual carbon allocation to wood in European tree species is consistent with a combined source-sink limitation of growth: implications for modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillemot, J.; Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Dufrene, E.; Francois, C.; Soudani, K.; Ourcival, J. M.; Delpierre, N.

    2015-05-01

    appeared to strongly limit growth only in temperate deciduous species. We provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the annual C allocation to wood in French forests. Our study supports the premise that the growth of European tree species is subject to complex control processes that include both source and sink limitations. The relative influences of the growth drivers strongly vary with time and across spatial ecological gradients. We suggest a straightforward modelling framework with which to implement these combined forest growth limitations into terrestrial biosphere models.

  18. Review of "the Twelfth West Coast Retrovirus Meeting" and "the Twenty-third Annual Symposium on Nonhuman Primate Models for AIDS".

    PubMed

    Cairns, J Scott

    2006-01-11

    Two recent meetings held on the west coast of the USA highlighted current work being done in the field of retrovirology and AIDS. The meetings, "The Twelfth West Coast Retrovirus Meeting" (Palm Springs CA; October 6-8, 2005), and the "Twenty-third Annual Symposium on Nonhuman Primate Models for AIDS" (Portland OR; September 21-24) covered a broad range of topics. The highlights covered here are not meant to be inclusive but reflect presentations of interest in the identification and development of new HIV therapies and the role played by animal models in their development.

  19. High-resolution (30 m), annual (1986 - 2010) carbon stocks and fluxes for southeastern US forests derived from remote sensing, inventory data, and a carbon cycle model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, H.; Zhou, Y.; Williams, C. A.

    2016-12-01

    Disturbance events are highly heterogeneous in space and time, impacting forest carbon dynamics and challenging the quantification and reporting of carbon stocks and flux. This study documents annual carbon stocks and fluxes from 1986 and 2010 mapped at 30-m resolution across southeastern US forests, characterizing how they respond to disturbances and ensuing regrowth. Forest inventory data (FIA) are used to parameterize a carbon cycle model (CASA) to represent post-disturbance carbon trajectories of carbon pools and fluxes for harvest, fire and bark beetle disturbances of varying severity and across forest types and site productivity settings. Time since disturbance at 30 meters is inferred from two remote-sensing data sources: disturbance year (NAFD, MTBS and ADS) and biomass (NBCD 2000) intersected with inventory-derived curves of biomass accumulation with stand age. All of these elements are combined to map carbon stocks and fluxes at a 30-m resolution for the year 2010, and to march backward in time for continuous, annual reporting. Results include maps of annual carbon stocks and fluxes for forests of the southeastern US, and analysis of spatio-temporal patterns of carbon sources/sinks at local and regional scales.

  20. Building a field- and model-based climatology of local water and energy cycles in the cultivated Sahel - annual budgets and seasonality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velluet, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Braud, I.; Issoufou, H. B.-A.; Boulain, N.; Ramier, D.; Mainassara, I.; Charvet, G.; Boucher, M.; Chazarin, J.-P.; Oï, M.; Yahou, H.; Maidaji, B.; Arpin-Pont, F.; Benarrosh, N.; Mahamane, A.; Nazoumou, Y.; Favreau, G.; Seghieri, J.

    2014-05-01

    In the African Sahel, energy and water cycling at the land surface is pivotal for regional climate, water resources and land productivity, yet it is still extremely poorly documented. As a step towards a comprehensive climatological description of surface fluxes in this area, this study provides estimates of average annual budgets and seasonal cycles for two main land use types of the cultivated Sahelian belt, rainfed millet crop and fallow bush. These estimates build on the combination of a 7 year field dataset from two typical plots in southwestern Niger with detailed physically-based soil-plant-atmosphere modelling, yielding a continuous, comprehensive set of water and energy flux and storage variables over the 7 year period. In this study case in particular, blending field data with mechanistic modelling is considered as making best use of available data and knowledge for such purpose. It extends observations by reconstructing missing data and extrapolating to unobserved variables or periods. Furthermore, model constraining with observations compromises between extraction of observational information content and integration of process understanding, hence accounting for data imprecision and departure from physical laws. Climatological averages of all water and energy variables, with associated sampling uncertainty, are derived at annual to subseasonal scales from the 7 year series produced. Similarities and differences in the two ecosystems behaviors are highlighted. Mean annual evapotranspiration is found to represent ~82-85% of rainfall for both systems, but with different soil evaporation/plant transpiration partitioning and different seasonal distribution. The remainder consists entirely of runoff for the fallow, whereas drainage and runoff stand in a 40-60% proportion for the millet field. These results should provide a robust reference for the surface energy- and water-related studies needed in this region. The model developed in this context has the

  1. A Cross-Sectional Model of Annual Interregional Migration and Employment Growth: Intertemporal Evidence of Structural Change, 1958-1975.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-04-01

    NAVAL ANALYSES , 󈨕 5 2𔄁 094 r ,’- - - T -" 4 . - , . . - , ,. . ..-- - .-r , " ,-.. . .T " - ." . The ideas expressed in this paper are those of the...in the file were never put on an annual basis until done so for this project . T he data are therefore unique. They are the only available U.S. data...8217Effecto of tsUemployment In- the Square Root Theory of Scientific Publicatuin meet Sciece 9 Mlay 1977. Sari P iaci. Coo iurance Entitfenent on Duration

  2. Annual research briefs, 1989

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

    1990-01-01

    This report contains the 1989 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows of the Center for Turbulence Research. It is intended as a year end report to NASA, Ames Research Center which supports this group through core funding and by making available physical and intellectual resources. The Center for Turbulence Research is devoted to the fundamental study of turbulent flows; its objectives are to simulate advances in the physical understanding of turbulence, in turbulence modeling and simulation, and in turbulence control. The reports appearing in the following pages are grouped in the general areas of modeling, experimental research, theory, simulation and numerical methods, and compressible and reacting flows.

  3. Annual Reports

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    tools,data, and models that are: improving air quality; helping communities become more resilient; reducing emissions of carbon and other pollutants; ushering in new generations of safer, more sustainable chemicals, advancing safe drinking water resources

  4. Growth and annual survival estimates to examine the ecology of larval lamprey and the implications of ageing error in fitting models.

    PubMed

    Schultz, L D; Chasco, B E; Whitlock, S L; Meeuwig, M H; Schreck, C B

    2017-04-01

    This study used existing western brook lamprey Lampetra richardsoni age information to fit three different growth models (i.e. von Bertalanffy, Gompertz and logistic) with and without error in age estimates. Among these growth models, there was greater support for the logistic and Gompertz models than the von Bertalanffy model, regardless of ageing error assumptions. The von Bertalanffy model, however, appeared to fit the data well enough to permit survival estimates; using length-based estimators, annual survival varied between 0·64 (95% credibility interval: 0·44-0·79) and 0·81 (0·79-0·83) depending on ageing and growth process error structure. These estimates are applicable to conservation and management of L. richardsoni and other western lampreys (e.g. Pacific lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus) and can potentially be used in the development of life-cycle models for these species. These results also suggest that estimators derived from von Bertalanffy growth models should be interpreted with caution if there is high uncertainty in age estimates. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  5. Calibrating R-LINE model results with observational data to develop annual mobile source air pollutant fields at fine spatial resolution: Application in Atlanta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhai, Xinxin; Russell, Armistead G.; Sampath, Poornima; Mulholland, James A.; Kim, Byeong-Uk; Kim, Yunhee; D'Onofrio, David

    2016-12-01

    The Research LINE-source (R-LINE) dispersion model for near-surface releases is a dispersion model developed to estimate the impacts of line sources, such as automobiles, on primary air pollutant levels. In a multiyear application in Atlanta, R-LINE simulations overestimated concentrations and spatial gradients compared to measurements. In this study we present a computationally efficient procedure for calculating annual average spatial fields and develop an approach for calibrating R-LINE concentrations with observational data. Simulated hourly concentrations of PM2.5, CO and NOx from mobile sources at 250 m resolution in the 20-county Atlanta area based on average diurnal emission profiles and meteorological categories were used to estimate annual averages. Compared to mobile source PM2.5 impacts estimated by chemical mass balance with gas constraints (CMB-GC), a source apportionment model based on PM2.5 speciation measurements, R-LINE estimates of traffic-generated PM2.5 impacts were found to be higher by a factor of 1.8 on average across all sites. Compared to observations of daily 1 h maximum CO and NOx, R-LINE estimates were higher by factors of 1.3 and 4.2 on average, respectively. Annual averages estimated by R-LINE were calibrated by regression with observations from 2002 to 2011 at multiple sites for daily 1 h maximum CO and NOx and with measurement-based mobile source impacts estimated by CMB-GC for PM2.5. The calibration reduced normalized mean bias (NMB) from 29% to 0.3% for PM2.5, from 22% to -1% for CO, and from 303% to 49% for NOx. Cross-validation analysis (withholding sites one at a time) leads to NMB of 13%, 1%, and 69% for PM2.5, CO, and NOx, respectively. The observation-calibrated R-LINE annual average spatial fields were compared with pollutant fields from observation-blended, 12 km resolution Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model fields for CO and NOx, with Pearson correlation R2 values of 0.55 for CO and 0.54 for NOx found. The

  6. Annual Rates on Seismogenic Italian Sources with Models of Long-Term Predictability for the Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment In Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Console, Rodolfo

    2016-04-01

    The present study is carried out in the framework of the Center for Seismic Hazard (CPS) INGV, under the agreement signed in 2015 with the Department of Civil Protection for developing a new model of seismic hazard of the country that can update the current reference (MPS04-S1; zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it and esse1.mi.ingv.it) released between 2004 and 2006. In this initiative, we participate with the Long-Term Stress Transfer (LTST) Model to provide the annual occurrence rate of a seismic event on the entire Italian territory, from a Mw4.5 minimum magnitude, considering bins of 0.1 magnitude units on geographical cells of 0.1° x 0.1°. Our methodology is based on the fusion of a statistical time-dependent renewal model (Brownian Passage Time, BPT, Matthews at al., 2002) with a physical model which considers the permanent effect in terms of stress that undergoes a seismogenic source in result of the earthquakes that occur on surrounding sources. For each considered catalog (historical, instrumental and individual seismogenic sources) we determined a distinct rate value for each cell of 0.1° x 0.1° for the next 50 yrs. If the cell falls within one of the sources in question, we adopted the respective value of rate, which is referred only to the magnitude of the event characteristic. This value of rate is divided by the number of grid cells that fall on the horizontal projection of the source. If instead the cells fall outside of any seismic source we considered the average value of the rate obtained from the historical and the instrumental catalog, using the method of Frankel (1995). The annual occurrence rate was computed for any of the three considered distributions (Poisson, BPT and BPT with inclusion of stress transfer).

  7. Annual Research Briefs, 1990

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    The 1990 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulent Research (CTR) are included. It is intended primarily as a contractor report to NASA, Ames Research Center. In addition, numerous CTR Manuscript Reports were published last year. The purpose of the CTR Manuscript Series is to expedite the dissemination of research results by the CTR staff. The CTR is devoted to the fundamental study of turbulent flow; its objectives are to produce advances in physical understanding of turbulence, in turbulence modeling and simulation, and in turbulence control.

  8. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea: model results against satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dvornikov, Anton; Sein, Dmitry; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Gorchakov, Victor; Pugalova, Svetlana

    2015-04-01

    This study is aimed at modelling the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea in the modern period. Adequate description of marine ecosystems in the ice-covered seas crucially depends on the accuracy in determining of thicknesses of ice and snow on the sea surface which control penetrating photosynthetically active radiation under the ice. One of the few models of ice able to adequately reproduce the dynamics of sea ice is the sea ice model HELMI [1], containing 7 different categories of ice. This model has been imbedded into the Princeton Ocean Model. With this coupled model 2 runs for the period 1998-2007 were performed under different atmospheric forcing prescribed from NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 archives. For prescribing conditions at the open boundary, all the necessary information about the horizontal velocity, level, temperature and salinity of the water, ice thickness and compactness was taken from the results of the global ocean general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg, Germany) MPIOM [2]. The resulting solution with NCEP forcing with a high accuracy simulates the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from MODIS data. The maximum difference between the calculated and satellite-derived SSTs (averaged over 4 selected areas of the Barents Sea) during the period 2000-2007 does not exceed 1.5 °C. Seasonal and inter-annual variations in the area of ice cover are also in good agreement with satellite-derived estimates. Pelagic ecosystem model developed in [3] has been coupled into the above hydrodynamic model and used to calculate the changes in the characteristics of marine ecosystems under NCEP forcing. Preliminarily the ecosystem model has been improved by introducing a parameterization of detritus deposition on the bottom and through the selection of optimal parameters for photosynthesis and zooplankton grazing

  9. Simulation of annual biogeochemical cycles of nutrient balance, phytoplankton bloom(s), and DO in Puget Sound using an unstructured grid model

    SciTech Connect

    Khangaonkar, Tarang; Sackmann, Brandon; Long, Wen; Mohamedali, Teizeen; Roberts, Mindy

    2012-08-14

    Nutrient pollution from rivers, nonpoint source runoff, and nearly 100 wastewater discharges is a potential threat to the ecological health of Puget Sound with evidence of hypoxia in some basins. However, the relative contributions of loads entering Puget Sound from natural and anthropogenic sources, and the effects of exchange flow from the Pacific Ocean are not well understood. Development of a quantitative model of Puget Sound is thus presented to help improve our understanding of the annual biogeochemical cycles in this system using the unstructured grid Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model framework and the Integrated Compartment Model (CE-QUAL-ICM) water quality kinetics. Results based on 2006 data show that phytoplankton growth and die-off, succession between two species of algae, nutrient dynamics, and dissolved oxygen in Puget Sound are strongly tied to seasonal variation of temperature, solar radiation, and the annual exchange and flushing induced by upwelled Pacific Ocean waters. Concentrations in the mixed outflow surface layer occupying approximately 5–20 m of the upper water column show strong effects of eutrophication from natural and anthropogenic sources, spring and summer algae blooms, accompanied by depleted nutrients but high dissolved oxygen levels. The bottom layer reflects dissolved oxygen and nutrient concentrations of upwelled Pacific Ocean water modulated by mixing with biologically active surface outflow in the Strait of Juan de Fuca prior to entering Puget Sound over the Admiralty Inlet. The effect of reflux mixing at the Admiralty Inlet sill resulting in lower nutrient and higher dissolved oxygen levels in bottom waters of Puget Sound than the incoming upwelled Pacific Ocean water is reproduced. Finally, by late winter, with the reduction in algal activity, water column constituents of interest, were renewed and the system appeared to reset with cooler temperature, higher nutrient, and higher dissolved oxygen waters from the Pacific

  10. Simulation of annual biogeochemical cycles of nutrient balance, phytoplankton bloom(s), and DO in Puget Sound using an unstructured grid model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khangaonkar, Tarang; Sackmann, Brandon; Long, Wen; Mohamedali, Teizeen; Roberts, Mindy

    2012-09-01

    Nutrient pollution from rivers, nonpoint source runoff, and nearly 100 wastewater discharges is a potential threat to the ecological health of Puget Sound with evidence of hypoxia in some basins. However, the relative contributions of loads entering Puget Sound from natural and anthropogenic sources, and the effects of exchange flow from the Pacific Ocean are not well understood. Development of a quantitative model of Puget Sound is thus presented to help improve our understanding of the annual biogeochemical cycles in this system using the unstructured grid Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model framework and the Integrated Compartment Model (CE-QUAL-ICM) water quality kinetics. Results based on 2006 data show that phytoplankton growth and die-off, succession between two species of algae, nutrient dynamics, and dissolved oxygen in Puget Sound are strongly tied to seasonal variation of temperature, solar radiation, and the annual exchange and flushing induced by upwelled Pacific Ocean waters. Concentrations in the mixed outflow surface layer occupying approximately 5-20 m of the upper water column show strong effects of eutrophication from natural and anthropogenic sources, spring and summer algae blooms, accompanied by depleted nutrients but high dissolved oxygen levels. The bottom layer reflects dissolved oxygen and nutrient concentrations of upwelled Pacific Ocean water modulated by mixing with biologically active surface outflow in the Strait of Juan de Fuca prior to entering Puget Sound over the Admiralty Inlet. The effect of reflux mixing at the Admiralty Inlet sill resulting in lower nutrient and higher dissolved oxygen levels in bottom waters of Puget Sound than the incoming upwelled Pacific Ocean water is reproduced. By late winter, with the reduction in algal activity, water column constituents of interest, were renewed and the system appeared to reset with cooler temperature, higher nutrient, and higher dissolved oxygen waters from the Pacific Ocean.

  11. A comparison of three approaches to modeling leaf gas exchange in annually drought-stressed ponderosa pine forests.

    PubMed

    Misson, Laurent; Panek, Jeanne A; Goldstein, Allen H

    2004-05-01

    We tested, compared and modified three models of stomatal conductance at the leaf level in a forest ecosystem where drought stress is a major factor controlling forest productivity. The models were tested against 2 years (1999 and 2000) of leaf-level measurements on ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) growing in the Mediterranean climate of California, USA. The Ball, Woodrow and Berry (1987) (BWB) model was modified to account for soil water stress. Among the models, results of the modified BWB model were in the closest agreement with observations (r2 = 0.71). The Jarvis (1976) model showed systematic simulation errors related to vapor pressure deficit (r2 = 0.65). Results of the Williams, Rastetter, Fernandes et al. (1996) (SPA) model showed the poorest correlation with empirical data, but this model has only one calibration parameter (r2 = 0.60). Sensitivity analyses showed that, in all three models, predictions of stomatal conductance were most responsive to photosynthetically active radiation and soil water content. Stomatal conductance showed little sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit in the Jarvis model, whereas in both the BWB and SPA models, vapor pressure deficit (or relative humidity) was the third most important variable. Parameterization of the SPA model was in accordance with the parameterization of the modified BWB model, although the two models differ greatly. Measured and modeled results indicate that stomatal behavior is not water conservative during spring; however, during summer, when soil water content is low and vapor pressure deficit is high, stomatal conductance decreases and, according to the models, intrinsic water- use efficiency increases.

  12. Budgeting Based on Results: A Return-on-Investment Model Contributes to More Effective Annual Spending Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Kelt L.

    2011-01-01

    One major problem in developing school district budgets immune to cuts is the model administrators traditionally use--an expenditure model. The simplicity of this model is seductive: What were the revenues and expenditures last year? What are the expected revenues and expenditures this year? A few adjustments here and there and one has a budget.…

  13. Budgeting Based on Results: A Return-on-Investment Model Contributes to More Effective Annual Spending Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Kelt L.

    2011-01-01

    One major problem in developing school district budgets immune to cuts is the model administrators traditionally use--an expenditure model. The simplicity of this model is seductive: What were the revenues and expenditures last year? What are the expected revenues and expenditures this year? A few adjustments here and there and one has a budget.…

  14. A Machine Learning Approach to Student Modeling. Technical Report No. 1. Annual Report, 11/82-11/83.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Langley, Pat; And Others

    The notion of buggy procedures has played an important role in recent cognitive models of mathematical skills. Some earlier work on student modeling used artificial intelligence methods to automatically construct buggy models of student behavior. An alternate approach, proposed here, draws on insights from the rapidly developing field of machine…

  15. A Machine Learning Approach to Student Modeling. Technical Report No. 1. Annual Report, 11/82-11/83.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Langley, Pat; And Others

    The notion of buggy procedures has played an important role in recent cognitive models of mathematical skills. Some earlier work on student modeling used artificial intelligence methods to automatically construct buggy models of student behavior. An alternate approach, proposed here, draws on insights from the rapidly developing field of machine…

  16. Effects of model spatial resolution on ecohydrologic predictions and their sensitivity to inter-annual climate variability

    Treesearch

    Kyongho Son; Christina Tague; Carolyn Hunsaker

    2016-01-01

    The effect of fine-scale topographic variability on model estimates of ecohydrologic responses to climate variability in California’s Sierra Nevada watersheds has not been adequately quantified and may be important for supporting reliable climate-impact assessments. This study tested the effect of digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on model accuracy and estimates...

  17. Annual Research Briefs, 1992

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

    1993-01-01

    This report contains the 1992 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulence Research. Considerable effort was focused on the large eddy simulation technique for computing turbulent flows. This increased activity has been inspired by the recent predictive successes of the dynamic subgrid scale modeling procedure which was introduced during the 1990 Summer Program. Several Research Fellows and students are presently engaged in both the development of subgrid scale models and their applications to complex flows. The first group of papers in this report contain the findings of these studies. They are followed by reports grouped in the general areas of modeling, turbulence physics, and turbulent reacting flows. The last contribution in this report outlines the progress made on the development of the CTR post-processing facility.

  18. Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data - Part 2: Estimation and uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

    2014-05-01

    Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to approximate within-GCM uncertainty of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and assess its impact on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. To-date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2014) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from CMIP3 for use in this paper. Here we present within- and between-GCM uncertainty results in mean annual precipitation (MAP), temperature (MAT) and runoff (MAR), the standard deviation of annual precipitation (SDP) and runoff (SDR) and reservoir yield for five CMIP3 GCMs at 17 world-wide catchments. Based on 100

  19. Annual report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1992-01-01

    The overall goal of the Tuskegee University Center for Food Production, Processing and Waste Management in Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) is to provide tested information and technologies applicable to bioregenerative food production systems for life support on long-term manned space mission. Specifically, the center is developing information, computer simulated models, methodologies and technology for sweetpotato and peanut biomass production and processing, inclusive of waste management and recycling of these crops selected by NASA for CELSS. The Center is organized into interdisciplinary teams of life scientists and engineers that work together on specific objectives and long-term goals. Integral to the goal of the Center is the development of both basic and applied research information and the training of young scientists and engineers, especially underrepresented minorities that will increase the professional pool in these disciplines and contribute to the advancement of space sciences and exploration.

  20. A regionalized national universal kriging model using Partial Least Squares regression for estimating annual PM2.5 concentrations in epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Sampson, Paul D; Richards, Mark; Szpiro, Adam A; Bergen, Silas; Sheppard, Lianne; Larson, Timothy V; Kaufman, Joel D

    2013-08-01

    Many cohort studies in environmental epidemiology require accurate modeling and prediction of fine scale spatial variation in ambient air quality across the U.S. This modeling requires the use of small spatial scale geographic or "land use" regression covariates and some degree of spatial smoothing. Furthermore, the details of the prediction of air quality by land use regression and the spatial variation in ambient air quality not explained by this regression should be allowed to vary across the continent due to the large scale heterogeneity in topography, climate, and sources of air pollution. This paper introduces a regionalized national universal kriging model for annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) monitoring data across the U.S. To take full advantage of an extensive database of land use covariates we chose to use the method of Partial Least Squares, rather than variable selection, for the regression component of the model (the "universal" in "universal kriging") with regression coefficients and residual variogram models allowed to vary across three regions defined as West Coast, Mountain West, and East. We demonstrate a very high level of cross-validated accuracy of prediction with an overall R(2) of 0.88 and well-calibrated predictive intervals. In accord with the spatially varying characteristics of PM2.5 on a national scale and differing kriging smoothness parameters, the accuracy of the prediction varies by region with predictive intervals being notably wider in the West Coast and Mountain West in contrast to the East.

  1. Modeling effects of inter-annual variability in meteorological and land use conditions on coupled water and energy cycling in the cultivated African Sahel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velluet, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Braud, I.; Boulain, N.; Favreau, G.; Charvet, G.; Ramier, D.; Issoufou, H.; Boucher, M.; Mainassara, I.; Chazarin, J.; Oï, M.; Yahou, H.; Benarrosh, N.; Ibrahim, M.

    2012-12-01

    In the dry tropics in general and in the African Sahel in particular, hydro-ecosystems are very sensitive to climate variability and land management. In the Niamey region of South-West Niger, a severe multi-decadal drought together with large-scale vegetation clearing coincided with an unexpected increase in surface and ground water resources. Such an apparent paradoxical situation illustrates the complex way in which climate and land cover interactions control the Sahelian water cycle dynamics. This stresses the importance of understanding and reliably modeling water/energy transfers in the local soil-plant-atmosphere system, under contrasted meteorological and surface conditions. This study investigates the effects of the inter-annual variability of meteorological and land use conditions on the coupled water and energy cycles in the cultivated Sahel over a 5-year period. This is based on a comprehensive multi-year field dataset acquired for a millet crop field and a fallow savannah, the two main land cover types of South-West Niger (Wankama catchment in the mesoscale AMMA-CATCH Niger observatory, part of the French-initiated RBV network). It includes atmospheric forcing, seasonal course of vegetation phenology, soil properties and model validation variables (net radiation, turbulent fluxes, soil heat/water profiles), for the two fields. The study area is typical of Central Sahel conditions, with 400-600 mm annual rainfall concentrated in the 4-5 month wet season. Soils are mainly sandy and prone to surface crusting, leading to a strong vertical contrast in hydrodynamic properties. The SiSPAT process-based model used solves the 1D mass and heat transfer system of equations in the soil, including vapor phase and coupled with a two-component (bare soil and vegetation) water and energy budget at the surface-atmosphere interface. The study explores whether such a model can be accurately calibrated and validated for the two sites using realistic-parameter values. The

  2. The Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO) as Upper Atmosphere Pacemaker for Generating the Large Solar Cycle Modulation of the QBO in the Stratosphere: Model Simulations and Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayr, H. G.; Lee, J. N.

    2014-12-01

    Very large solar cycle (SC) variations are observed in the zonal winds and temperatures of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The effect is too large to be produced by the small SC variations of the solar flux in the lower stratosphere. Dynamical downward coupling must be involved, and we present a review of the mechanism that emerged from studies with the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM). In the NSM, the QBO is generated with parameterized gravity waves and planetary waves. For a SC period of 10 years, the applied heat source varies exponentially with altitude: 0.2% (surface), 2% (50 km), 20% (100 km and above). With that solar forcing, the model reproduces qualitatively the SC modulations of the QBO zonal winds around the equator and temperature variations extending to high latitudes. The QBO is spawned in the lower mesosphere by a hemispherically symmetric equatorial annual oscillation (EAO) of the zonal wind velocities. Though small in magnitude, the SC modulation of the EAO is large. Like the symmetric QBO, the EAO extends into the lower atmosphere under the influence of, and amplified by, wave mean flow interactions. The amplitude modulations of the QBO and EAO are in phase with the imposed SC heat source. Essentially, the EAO provides the pathway and pacemaker for the SC modulation of the QBO - and wave interactions amplify the oscillations as they propagate down into the lower atmosphere. Analysis of NCEP temperature and zonal wind data (1958 to 2006) produces the hemispherically symmetric equatorial annual oscillation (EAO), and it contains spectral signatures with periods around 11 years. Moving windows of 44 years show that below 20 km the 11-year modulation of the EAO is phase locked to the SC. The spectral features from the 48-year data record reveal modulation signatures of 9.6 and 12 years, which produce EAO variations that mimic in limited altitude regimes the varying maxima and minima of the 10.7 cm solar index. In the lower stratosphere, the 40

  3. Modeling the Magnetic and Thermal Structure of Active Regions: 1st Year 1st Semi-Annual Progress Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mikic, Zoran

    2003-01-01

    This report covers technical progress during the first six months of the first year of NASA SR&T contract "Modeling the Magnetic and Thermal Structure of Active Regions", NASW-03008, between NASA and Science Applications International Corporation, and covers the period January 14, 2003 to July 13, 2003. Under this contract SAIC has conducted research into theoretical modeling of the properties of active regions using the MHD model.

  4. Modeling and Verification of Distributed Generation and Voltage Regulation Equipment for Unbalanced Distribution Power Systems; Annual Subcontract Report, June 2007

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, M. W.; Broadwater, R.; Hambrick, J.

    2007-07-01

    This report summarizes the development of models for distributed generation and distribution circuit voltage regulation equipment for unbalanced power systems and their verification through actual field measurements.

  5. Inter-Annual Variability of Currents, Temperature and Salinity during 1998-2012 in a High-Resolution Ocean Model of the Western Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, T. G.; Ko, D. S.; Wijesekera, H. W.

    2014-12-01

    A simulation of the 3-dimensional ocean temperature, salinity and currents of from 1998 through 2012 was done using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) with a 6-km resolution and 40 vertical sigma-z levels. The forcing is 3-hourly atmospheric output from the Navy's Operational Global Prediction System (NOGAPS). The boundary conditions are provided by the 1/8o Global NCOM model. In addition, 8 semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal components and monthly climatological discharges of 37 rivers are included. The model assimilates satellite altimeter data, AVHRR SST and synthetic temperature and salinity profiles from the Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS). The model output is filtered to remove tides and saved as daily averages. From out analysis we find large inter-annual variability in the strength of the South Equatorial Counter Current and in the subsurface temperature cold anomaly associated with Seyshelles-Chagos thermocline ridge. The cold anomaly was significantly reduced in 2007 during which had a rare co-occurrence of La Nina and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Year to year variability in the equatorial currents affects the Somali Current and the time of development and strength of the Great Whirl during the southwest monsoon.

  6. A Model Simulating the Impact of Reagan's Student Financial Aid Proposals on the Institution. AIR 1983 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Porter, John D.; Matt, Joseph J.

    A model was developed at Arizona State University (ASU) to simulate the effect of President Reagan's proposed 1983 cuts in student financial aid in terms of programs and student credit hour load. The model allows administrators to simulate the impact on various student groups. The analysis involved 3,141 full-time undergraduates with financial aid…

  7. Diurnal and annual exchanges of mass and energy between an aspen-hazelnut forest and the atmosphere: Testing the mathematical model Ecosys with data from the BOREAS experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, R. F.; Black, T. A.; den Hartog, G.; Berry, J. A.; Neumann, H. H.; Blanken, P. D.; Yang, P. C.; Russell, C.; Nalder, I. A.

    1999-11-01

    There is much uncertainty about the net carbon (C) exchange of boreal forest ecosystems, although this exchange may be an important part of global C dynamics. To resolve this uncertainty, net C exchange has been measured at several sites in the boreal forest of Canada as part of the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS). One of these sites is the Southern Old Aspen site at which diurnal CO2 and energy (radiation, latent, and sensible heat) fluxes were measured during 1994 using eddy correlation techniques at different positions within a mixed 70 year old aspen-hazelnut forest. These measurements were used to test a complex ecosystem model "ecosys" in which mass and energy exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere are simulated hourly under diverse conditions of soil, management, and climate. These simulations explained between 70% and 80% of diurnal variation in ecosystem CO2 and energy fluxes measured during three 1 week intervals in late April, early June, and mid-July. Total annual CO2 fluxes indicated that during 1994, aspen was a net sink of 540 (modeled) versus 670 (measured) g C m-2 yr-1, while hazelnut plus soil were a net source of 472 (modeled) versus 540 (measured) g C m-2 yr-1. The aspen-hazelnut forest at the BOREAS site was therefore estimated to be a net sink of about 68 (modeled) versus 130 (measured) g C m-2 yr-1 during 1994. Long-term simulations indicated that this sink may be larger during cooler years and smaller during warmer years because C fixation in the model was less sensitive to temperature than respiration. These simulations also indicated that the magnitude of this sink declines with forest age because respiration increases with respect to fixation as standing phytomass grows. Confidence in the predictive capabilities of ecosystem models at decadal or centennial timescales is improved by well-constrained tests of these models at hourly timescales.

  8. Quantifying pruning impacts on olive tree architecture and annual canopy growth by using UAV-based 3D modelling.

    PubMed

    Jiménez-Brenes, F M; López-Granados, F; de Castro, A I; Torres-Sánchez, J; Serrano, N; Peña, J M

    2017-01-01

    . Combining UAV-based images and an OBIA procedure allowed measuring tree dimensions and quantifying the impacts of three different pruning treatments on hundreds of trees with minimal field work. Tree foliage losses and annual canopy growth showed different trends as affected by the type and severity of the pruning treatments. Additionally, this technology offers valuable geo-spatial information for designing site-specific crop management strategies in the context of precision agriculture, with the consequent economic and environmental benefits.

  9. Using Novel Approaches in Process-Based Modeling for Interpreting Inter-Annual Variability in Tree Ring Widths, Wood Density Profiles, and Cellulose Isotopic Ratios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friend, A. D.; Babst, F.; Belmecheri, S.; Frank, D. C.; Hacket Pain, A. J.; Hayat, A.; Poulter, B.; Rademacher, T. T.; Trouet, V.

    2015-12-01

    Time series annual of tree ring width, density variation, and oxygen and carbon isotopic compositions have the potential to substantially increase our knowledge of forest responses to environmental variation. However, their interpretation is not straightforward due to the simultaneous influences of a number of confounding factors, including carry-over effects from previous years, variable resource allocation with size, age, and canopy position, species-specific physiologies, and complex interactions between forcings such as temperature, soil moisture, and atmospheric CO2. Here we attempt to tease these factors apart and so substantially improve the interpretability of tree ring archives through the construction and application of novel approaches within a process-based model of individual tree growth. The model incorporates descriptions of xylem cell division, expansion, and secondary wall thickening, apical and lateral meristem activities with internal controls from internal signals, internal carbon storage, and the dynamics of canopy photosynthesis, stomatal movements, evapotranspiration, canopy temperatures, and soil moisture. Alternative treatments of isotopic fractionation and growth controls are evaluated using measured datasets. We demonstrate how this new model approach can be used to assess the information contained in tree rings concerning the influence of increasing atmospheric CO2 over the past century on growth and water use efficiency at a range of sites.

  10. Annual Tree Growth Predictions From Periodic Measurements

    Treesearch

    Quang V. Cao

    2004-01-01

    Data from annual measurements of a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation were available for this study. Regression techniques were employed to model annual changes of individual trees in terms of diameters, heights, and survival probabilities. Subsets of the data that include measurements every 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 years were used to fit the same...

  11. Evaluating the present annual water budget of a Himalayan headwater river basin using a high-resolution atmosphere-hydrology model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Lu; Gochis, David J.; Sobolowski, Stefan; Mesquita, Michel D. S.

    2017-05-01

    Understanding the present water budget in Himalayan Basins is a challenge due to poor in situ coverage, incomplete or unreliable records, and the limitations of coarse resolution gridded data set. In the study, a two-way coupled implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and the WRF-Hydro hydrological modeling extension package (WRF/WRF-Hydro) was employed in its offline configuration, over a 10 year simulation period for a mountainous river basin in North India. A triple nest is employed, in which the innermost domain had 3 km for atmospheric model grids and 300 m for hydrological components. Two microphysical parameterization (MP) schemes are quantitatively evaluated to reveal how differently MP influences orographic-related precipitation and how it impacts hydrological responses. The WRF-Hydro modeling system shows reasonable skill in capturing the spatial and temporal structure of high-resolution precipitation, and the resulting stream flow hydrographs exhibit a good correspondence with observation at monthly timescales, although the model tends to generally underestimate streamflow amounts. The Thompson Scheme fits better to the observations in the study. More importantly, WRF shows that for high-altitude precipitation, a high "bias" is exhibited in winter precipitation from WRF, which is about double to triple that as estimated from valley-sited rain gauges and remotely sensed precipitation estimates from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation. Given the full annual cycle pattern and amount in high-altitude precipitation and the statistical correspondence in discharge, it is concluded that the WRF-Hydro modeling system shows potential for explicitly predicting potential changes in the atmospheric-hydrology cycle of ungauged or poorly gauged basins.

  12. Spatial and temporal patterns of plantation forests in the United States since the 1930s: an annual and gridded data set for regional Earth system modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Guangsheng; Pan, Shufen; Hayes, Daniel J.; Tian, Hanqin

    2017-08-01

    Plantation forest area in the conterminous United States (CONUS) ranked second among the world's nations in the land area apportioned to forest plantation. As compared to the naturally regenerated forests, plantation forests demonstrate significant differences in biophysical characteristics, and biogeochemical and hydrological cycles as a result of more intensive management practices. Inventory data have been reported for multiple time periods on plot, state, and regional scales across the CONUS, but the requisite annual and spatially explicit plantation data set over a long-term period for analysis of the role of plantation management on regional or national scales is lacking. Through synthesis of multiple inventory data sources, this study developed methods to spatialize the time series plantation forest and tree species distribution data for the CONUS over the 1928-2012 time period. According to this new data set, plantation forest area increased from near zero in the 1930s to 268.27 thousand km2 in 2012, accounting for 8.65 % of the total forestland area in the CONUS. Regionally, the South contained the highest proportion of plantation forests, accounting for about 19.34 % of total forestland area in 2012. This time series and gridded data set developed here can be readily applied in regional Earth system modeling frameworks for assessing the impacts of plantation management practices on forest productivity, carbon and nitrogen stocks, and greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4, and N2O) and water fluxes on regional or national scales. The gridded plantation distribution and tree species maps, and the interpolated state-level annual tree planting area and plantation area during 1928-2012, are available from https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.873558.

  13. Study of biomechanical overload in urban gardeners of Barcelona: application of analytical models for risk exposure evaluation in annual working cycle.

    PubMed

    Alvarez-Casado, Enrique; Hernandez-Soto, Aquiles; Tello, Sandoval; Gual, Rosa

    2012-01-01

    Occupational musculoskeletal disorders in the upper limbs and its consequences on the impact and prevalence in the work force are subject of many investigations in almost all the production fields. However, the exposure to this kind of risk factor on urban gardeners has not been well studied so far. The kind of plant varieties used in the parks, the tools that they use, as much as the necessary actions for the maintenance of the park, have an impact on the biomechanical overload of the upper limbs. Additionally, the analysis of the exposure to the biomechanical overload on upper limbs in gardening work is a complex task, mainly because it is an activity highly variable and of annual cycle. For this reason an analytical model for risk exposure evaluation is necessary. During this research the work activity of 29 gardeners in 3 urban parks of Barcelona has been analyzed. Each park has a specific acting plan, in relation with the quantity and the typology of vegetal species, its classification and the season of the year. Work and observation and video recording sessions on-site were conducted. The video-graphic registration was done on workers without any prior musculoskeletal disorder and with a minimum labour experience of 5 years. Moreover, the analysis of saturation time, considered as the relation of the repetitive working hours in reference with the hours of effective work was done. Using the registered tasks on video, the biomechanical overload on upper limbs applying the OCRA Checklist method was analyzed. A methodological procedure to analyze the risk exposure in annual working cycle has been proposed. The results that we got allow us to get information that can help in the assignment of the tasks and in the training of staff, as well as in the recommendations of the urban landscape's design. All these aspects have the goal to decrease the risk to develop work-related musculoskeletal disorders.

  14. Development of Improved Models and Designs for Coated-Particle Gas Reactor Fuels (I-NERI Annual Report)

    SciTech Connect

    Petti, David Andrew; Maki, John Thomas; Languille, Alain; Martin, Philippe; Ballinger, Ronald

    2002-11-01

    The objective of this INERI project is to develop improved fuel behavior models for gas reactor coated particle fuels and to develop improved coated-particle fuel designs that can be used reliably at very high burnups and potentially in fast gas-cooled reactors. Thermomechanical, thermophysical, and physiochemical material properties data were compiled by both the US and the French and preliminary assessments conducted. Comparison between U.S. and European data revealed many similarities and a few important differences. In all cases, the data needed for accurate fuel performance modeling of coated particle fuel at high burnup were lacking. The development of the INEEL fuel performance model, PARFUME, continued from earlier efforts. The statistical model being used to simulate the detailed finite element calculations is being upgraded and improved to allow for changes in fuel design attributes (e.g. thickness of layers, dimensions of kernel) as well as changes in important material properties to increase the flexibility of the code. In addition, modeling of other potentially important failure modes such as debonding and asphericity was started. A paper on the status of the model was presented at the HTR-2002 meeting in Petten, Netherlands in April 2002, and a paper on the statistical method was submitted to the Journal of Nuclear Material in September 2002. Benchmarking of the model against Japanese and an older DRAGON irradiation are planned. Preliminary calculations of the stresses in a coated particle have been calculated by the CEA using the ATLAS finite element model. This model and the material properties and constitutive relationships will be incorporated into a more general software platform termed Pleiades. Pleiades will be able to analyze different fuel forms at different scales (from particle to fuel body) and also handle the statistical variability in coated particle fuel. Diffusion couple experiments to study Ag and Pd transport through SiC were

  15. A single-substrate model to interpret intra-annual stable isotope signals in tree-ring cellulose.

    PubMed

    Ogée, J; Barbour, M M; Wingate, L; Bert, D; Bosc, A; Stievenard, M; Lambrot, C; Pierre, M; Bariac, T; Loustau, D; Dewar, R C

    2009-08-01

    The carbon and oxygen stable isotope composition of wood cellulose (delta(13)C(cellulose) and delta(18)O(cellulose), respectively) reveal well-defined seasonal variations that contain valuable records of past climate, leaf gas exchange and carbon allocation dynamics within the trees. Here, we present a single-substrate model for wood growth to interpret seasonal isotopic signals collected in an even-aged maritime pine plantation growing in South-west France, where climate, soil and flux variables were also monitored. Observed seasonal patterns in delta(13)C(cellulose) and delta(18)O(cellulose) were different between years and individuals, and mostly captured by the model, suggesting that the single-substrate hypothesis is a good approximation for tree ring studies on Pinus pinaster, at least for the environmental conditions covered by this study. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the model was mostly affected by five isotopic discrimination factors and two leaf gas-exchange parameters. Modelled early wood signals were also very sensitive to the date when cell wall thickening begins (t(wt)). Our model could therefore be used to reconstruct t(wt) time series and improve our understanding of how climate influences this key parameter of xylogenesis.

  16. Measurement and modeling of energetic material mass transfer to soil pore water : Project CP-1227 : FY04 annual technical report.

    SciTech Connect

    Stein, Joshua S.; Webb, Stephen Walter

    2005-01-01

    Military test and training ranges operate with live fire engagements to provide realism important to the maintenance of key tactical skills. Ordnance detonations during these operations typically produce minute residues of parent explosive chemical compounds. Occasional low order detonations also disperse solid phase energetic material onto the surface soil. These detonation remnants are implicated in chemical contamination impacts to groundwater on a limited set of ranges where environmental characterization projects have occurred. Key questions arise regarding how these residues and the environmental conditions (e.g., weather and geostratigraphy) contribute to groundwater pollution impacts. This report documents interim results of a mass transfer model evaluating mass transfer processes from solid phase energetics to soil pore water based on experimental work obtained earlier in this project. This mass transfer numerical model has been incorporated into the porous media simulation code T2TNT. Next year, the energetic material mass transfer model will be developed further using additional experimental data.

  17. Kinetics modeling and interpretation of experimental results for XeF. Annual report, December 1985--November 1986

    SciTech Connect

    Salesky, E.T.

    1986-12-31

    In this report the author presents a detailed discussion of a computer model of the electron beam pumped XeF laser which was developed for Los Alamos National Laboratory during FY86. In its present form, it should provide useful modeling and scaling of XeF laser experiments currently of interest. Additional modifications will be required for long pulse (t{sub P}>5{mu}sec) simulations. The model includes all of the important energy transport processes which contribute to the formation and quenching of XeF in the B-state (upper laser level), X-state (lower laser level), C-state (which mixes with the B-state as a loss mechanism), and the unbound (repulsive) A-state to which the C-state decays. The gain of the B to X transition is resolved for the three most important laser (vibrational) lines: (0-3) at 353 nm, (0-2) and (1-4) at 351 nm. This report describes the kinetics model and computer code for electron beam pumped XeF lasers which use gas mixtures composed of argon (the buffer), xenon, and fluorine. The temperatures, energy flow, and chemistry (plasma and neutral) are calculated in a self-consistent manner; balances of energy, matter, and charge are tracked by the code and output with each print cycle. The model includes the time history of all of the important absorbers: Ar{sub 2}{sup +}, Xe{sub 2}{sup +}, Ar{sup *} and Xe{sup *} (s and p states), F{sub 2}, F{sup {minus}}, and Xe{sub 2}F{sup *}. Energy extraction in the form of lasing is computed using a modified Rigrod analysis which treats multiline lasing. This extraction model assumes a spatially uniform laser flux and is therefore a one dimensional (in time) treatment. The more general extraction model which treats non-uniform spatial effects (laser flux and pumping by a non-uniform electron beam) is being developed, and will be integrated with excimer model in the FY87 reporting period. The computer code was written in FORTRAN77 on a DEC MICROVAX II which uses the VAX/VMS operating system.

  18. The Glut of Ph.D.s Complex Models for the Faculty Workforce. AIR 1998 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Milam, John

    This study examines some of the literature on college faculty supply and demand and asks whether it is possible to adopt assumptions from the previous research to construct a complex model of faculty workforce using the available data. The study involved a comprehensive review of the literature; numerous interviews conducted by telephone, e-mail,…

  19. Factors Affecting Retention Behavior: A Model To Predict At-Risk Students. AIR 1997 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sadler, William E.; Cohen, Frederic L.; Kockesen, Levent

    This paper describes a methodology used in an on-going retention study at New York University (NYU) to identify a series of easily measured factors affecting student departure decisions. Three logistic regression models for predicting student retention were developed, each containing data available at three distinct times during the first…

  20. Measuring and modeling carbon stock change estimates for US forests and uncertainties from apparent inter-annual variability

    Treesearch

    James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

    2015-01-01

    Our approach is based on a collection of models that convert or augment the USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis program survey data to estimate all forest carbon component stocks, including live and standing dead tree aboveground and belowground biomass, forest floor (litter), down deadwood, and soil organic carbon, for each inventory plot. The data, which include...

  1. Public Higher Education and the State: Models for Financing, Budgeting, and Accountability. ASHE 1986 Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curry, Denis J.; Fischer, Norman M.

    The trend toward greater state regulation of public higher education is discussed, along with alternative structures or models for state financing of public institutions. The situation in Washington State is briefly described as an illustration. It is proposed that interests of the state, college, and student can be enhanced by allowing colleges…

  2. Alternative Model for the Assessment of Organizational Effectiveness for Higher Education Institutions in Developing Countries. ASHE 1988 Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Escala, Miguel J.; And Others

    The results of a study developing and testing a socially relevant model for assessing organizational effectiveness in developing countries are presented. Focus is on assessing the Dominican Republic. The objectives of the study were: to select and test theoretically sound effectiveness criteria which account for the type of organization and the…

  3. Idaho Model Watershed Project : Annual Report to the Bonneville Power Administration January 1, 1997 - December 31, 1997.

    SciTech Connect

    Bradbury, Allen; Slavin, Katie

    1998-10-28

    The Model Watershed Project was initiated in the fall of 1992 with a grant from Bonneville Power Administration. The objective of this project is to protect, enhance and restore anadromous and resident fish habitat and achieve and maintain a balance between resource protection and resource use on a holistic watershed basis.

  4. A regionalized national universal kriging model using Partial Least Squares regression for estimating annual PM2.5 concentrations in epidemiology

    PubMed Central

    Sampson, Paul D.; Richards, Mark; Szpiro, Adam A.; Bergen, Silas; Sheppard, Lianne; Larson, Timothy V.; Kaufman, Joel D.

    2013-01-01

    Many cohort studies in environmental epidemiology require accurate modeling and prediction of fine scale spatial variation in ambient air quality across the U.S. This modeling requires the use of small spatial scale geographic or “land use” regression covariates and some degree of spatial smoothing. Furthermore, the details of the prediction of air quality by land use regression and the spatial variation in ambient air quality not explained by this regression should be allowed to vary across the continent due to the large scale heterogeneity in topography, climate, and sources of air pollution. This paper introduces a regionalized national universal kriging model for annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) monitoring data across the U.S. To take full advantage of an extensive database of land use covariates we chose to use the method of Partial Least Squares, rather than variable selection, for the regression component of the model (the “universal” in “universal kriging”) with regression coefficients and residual variogram models allowed to vary across three regions defined as West Coast, Mountain West, and East. We demonstrate a very high level of cross-validated accuracy of prediction with an overall R2 of 0.88 and well-calibrated predictive intervals. In accord with the spatially varying characteristics of PM2.5 on a national scale and differing kriging smoothness parameters, the accuracy of the prediction varies by region with predictive intervals being notably wider in the West Coast and Mountain West in contrast to the East. PMID:24015108

  5. A regionalized national universal kriging model using Partial Least Squares regression for estimating annual PM2.5 concentrations in epidemiology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, Paul D.; Richards, Mark; Szpiro, Adam A.; Bergen, Silas; Sheppard, Lianne; Larson, Timothy V.; Kaufman, Joel D.

    2013-08-01

    Many cohort studies in environmental epidemiology require accurate modeling and prediction of fine scale spatial variation in ambient air quality across the U.S. This modeling requires the use of small spatial scale geographic or “land use” regression covariates and some degree of spatial smoothing. Furthermore, the details of the prediction of air quality by land use regression and the spatial variation in ambient air quality not explained by this regression should be allowed to vary across the continent due to the large scale heterogeneity in topography, climate, and sources of air pollution. This paper introduces a regionalized national universal kriging model for annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) monitoring data across the U.S. To take full advantage of an extensive database of land use covariates we chose to use the method of Partial Least Squares, rather than variable selection, for the regression component of the model (the “universal” in “universal kriging”) with regression coefficients and residual variogram models allowed to vary across three regions defined as West Coast, Mountain West, and East. We demonstrate a very high level of cross-validated accuracy of prediction with an overall R2 of 0.88 and well-calibrated predictive intervals. In accord with the spatially varying characteristics of PM2.5 on a national scale and differing kriging smoothness parameters, the accuracy of the prediction varies by region with predictive intervals being notably wider in the West Coast and Mountain West in contrast to the East.

  6. Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, Donald J.; Ribic, Christine; Donner, Deahn M.; Nelson, Mark D.; Bocetti, Carol I.; Deloria-Sheffield, Christie M.

    2017-01-01

    Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001.To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme.Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines.Synthesis and applications. Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population

  7. Cambridge Healthtech Institute's Fourth Annual In silico Biology Conference "Modeling Systems Biology for Research and Target Prioritization"

    SciTech Connect

    Forst, C.

    2002-01-01

    In silico biology, the computer aided analysis of biological systems, is a relatively young research area. It first has been coined in the late 1990's and emerged from Theoretical and Computational Biology. As in other fields before, biology experiences an increased use of systems mathematics and computer simulation. With the human genome sequence available, with an exponentially growing number of completely sequenced genomes from various model organisms and with expression and proteomic data at hand, the research paradigm is shifted towards systems analysis and simulation. Computer aided modeling of complex biomolecules and assemblies are already routinely performed. Nowadays, theoretical description and computer simulation of cellular components in larger intra- and inter-cellular networks is of growing importance. Together with classic biological and clinical experiments as well as data from functional genomics, in silico biology will take the leading role in the analysis of biological systems.

  8. Northern Hemisphere climate trends in reanalysis and forecast model predictions: The 500 hPa annual means

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bordi, I.; Fraedrich, K.; Sutera, A.

    2010-06-01

    The lead time dependent climates of the ECMWF weather prediction model, initialized with ERA-40 reanalysis, are analysed using 44 years of day-1 to day-10 forecasts of the northern hemispheric 500-hPa geopotential height fields. The study addresses the question whether short-term tendencies have an impact on long-term trends. Comparing climate trends of ERA-40 with those of the forecasts, it seems that the forecast model rapidly loses the memory of initial conditions creating its own climate. All forecast trends show a high degree of consistency. Comparison results suggest that: (i) Only centers characterized by an upward trend are statistical significant when increasing the lead time. (ii) In midilatitudes an upward trend larger than the one observed in the reanalysis characterizes the forecasts, while in the tropics there is a good agreement. (iii) The downward trend in reanalysis at high latitudes characterizes also the day-1 forecast which, however, increasing lead time approaches zero.

  9. Modeling and Analysis of Target Echo and Clutter in Range-Dependent Bistatic Environments: FY14 Annual Report for ONR

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-30

    Characterizing and Reducing Clutter for Broadband Active Sonar” is now complete. In the last two years the focus has been on experiment design and data...of Washington (APL/UW). Model development to support experiment design and data interpretation were a major focus of the work. Recent work by the...with the fixed source (ITC 2015) and receiver (the triplet section of the Five Octave Research Array FORA [BP03]) deployed from RV Sharp. In

  10. Tucannon Model Watershed 1997 Habitat Projects : Annual Progress Report Project Period: January 1, 1997 to March 31, 1998.

    SciTech Connect

    Bruegman, Terry; Nordheim, Debby

    1998-10-28

    The Tucannon Model Watershed 1997 habitat projects were designed to address critical limiting factors identified through the watershed assessment and Plan development. Construction elements were composed of bioengineering techniques designed to increase salmonid habitat complexity, insure stream bank and geomorphic stability, and reduce stream temperature and sediments in spawning gravels. Cooperation and agreement between landowners and resource agencies for restoring resource conditions has grown due to project success and is expected to continue for the benefit of all.

  11. Multi-scale Predictability with a New Coupled Non-hydrostatic Global Model over the Arctic Annual Report

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-30

    that ultimately affect sea ice distributions and climate . Furthermore, these features are multiscale with coupled dynamical processes and interactions...we are currently analyzing test simulations using the NCAR Nesting Regional Climate Model (NRCM) physics suite. We refer to this configuration as...MPAS to predict the evolution of this cyclone, we compute differences from the MPAS forecasts with Climate 3 Figure 2: MPAS meshes with the

  12. Measurement and apportionment of radon source terms for modeling indoor environments. Annual progress report, March 1991--February 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Harley, N.H.

    1992-02-01

    This research has two main goals; (1) to quantify mechanisms for radon entry into homes of different types and to determine the fraction of indoor radon attributable to each source and (2) to model and calculate the dose (and therefore alpha particle fluence) to cells in the human and animal tracheobronchial tree that is pertinent to induction of bronchogenic carcinoma from inhaled radon daughters. The dosimetry has been extended to include organs other than the lung.

  13. Modeling and Analysis of Target Echo and Clutter in Range-Dependent Bistatic Environments: FY12 Annual Report for ONR

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-30

    reverberation level in a Pekeris waveguide : Insight from analytical solutions. J. Acoust. Soc. Am., 129(5, Pt. 2 of 2):2631, 2011. Abstract 4pUW10...Ellis, and Chris H. Harrison. Low frequency bottom reverberation in a Pekeris waveguide with Lambert’s rule. J. Comp. Acoust., 2013. Submitted...Ellis. Two modeling approaches for reverberation in a shallow water waveguide where the scattering arises from a sub-bottom interface. J. Comp

  14. Nuclear Level Densities for Modeling Nuclear Reactions: An Efficient Approach Using Statistical Spectroscopy: Annual Report 2003-2004

    SciTech Connect

    Calvin W. Johnson

    2004-07-30

    The general goal of the project is to develop and implement computer codes and input files to compute nuclear densities of state. Such densities are important input into calculations of statistical neutron capture, and are difficult to access experimentally. In particular, we will focus on calculating densities for nuclides in the mass range A ?????? 50 - 100. We use statistical spectroscopy, a moments method based upon a microscopic framework, the interacting shell model. In this report we present our progress for the past year.

  15. Annual variation in carbon budget using remote-sensing data and a process model in Borneo Island, Southeast Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adachi, M.; Ito, A.; Takeuchi, W.; Yamagata, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD) is one of the most important carbon emission reduction efforts in the tropical region. Deforestation and land use changes are human activities with major impact on the regional carbon budged and the other greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) emissions. Forest carbon biomass in Southeast Asia is largest in Asia region; however, the area of primary forest had continuously decreased due to land-use conversion. The objective of the present study was to evaluate carbon budged and greenhouse gases induced by deforestation from Borneo Island. We used time-series satellite remote-sensing data to track deforestation history in Borneo Island, Southeast Asia, and estimated the resulting forest carbon budget using a process-based model (VISIT: Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases). The forest/non-forest area was mapped by applying the ALOS/PALSAR-calibrated threshold value to MODIS, SPOT-VEGETATION, and NOAA-AVHRR images. The model allowed us to estimate changes in carbon budged and greenhouse gases by human disturbances, including land-use conversion from primary forest to cropland (e.g., oil-palm plantation). The estimated carbon stocks, budged, and greenhouse gases were verified using field observation of previous studies at some point of Borneo Island. Our results suggested that the southern part of Borneo Island was a large carbon source due to deforestation, although the VISIT model need be revised to account for tropical peatland.

  16. Measurement and Modeling of Energetic Material Mass Transfer to Soil Pore Water - Project CP-1227 Annual Technical Report

    SciTech Connect

    PHELAN, JAMES M.; WEBB, STEPHEN W.; ROMERO, JOSEPH V.; BARNETT, JAMES L.; GRIFFIN, FAWN A.

    2003-01-01

    Military test and training ranges operate with live fire engagements to provide realism important to the maintenance of key tactical skills. Ordnance detonations during these operations typically produce minute residues of parent explosive chemical compounds. Occasional low order detonations also disperse solid phase energetic material onto the surface soil. These detonation remnants are implicated in chemical contamination impacts to groundwater on a limited set of ranges where environmental characterization projects have occurred. Key questions arise regarding how these residues and the environmental conditions (e.g. weather and geostratigraphy) contribute to groundwater pollution impacts. This report documents interim results of experimental work evaluating mass transfer processes from solid phase energetics to soil pore water. The experimental work is used as a basis to formulate a mass transfer numerical model, which has been incorporated into the porous media simulation code T2TNT. Experimental work to date with Composition B explosive has shown that column tests typically produce effluents near the temperature dependent solubility limits for RDX and TNT. The influence of water flow rate, temperature, porous media saturation and mass loading is documented. The mass transfer model formulation uses a mass transfer coefficient and surface area function and shows good agreement with the experimental data. Continued experimental work is necessary to evaluate solid phase particle size and 2-dimensional effects, and actual low order detonation debris. Simulation model improvements will continue leading to a capability to complete screening assessments of the impacts of military range operations on groundwater quality.

  17. Models of natural fracture connectivity: Implications for reservoir permeability. Annual report for DOE Basic Energy Sciences, 1990

    SciTech Connect

    Pollard, D.D.; Aydin, A.

    1995-06-01

    Fluid flow through fracture networks in a rock mass depends strongly on the nature of connections between fracture segments and between individual fractures. Therefore the objective of this research project is to develop three dimensional models for natural fracture connectivity using an integrated field, laboratory, and theoretical methodology. The geometric models we have developed are based on detailed field mapping and observations from outcrops of both massive and layered sedimentary rocks, typical of producing oil and gas reservoirs, or of aquifers. Furthermore, we have used computer simulations and laboratory experiments to investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for fracture connectivity (or lack thereof) as single and multiple sets of fractures evolve. The computer models are based on fracture mechanics principles and the laboratory experiments utilize layered composite materials analogous to sedimentary sequences. By identifying the physical mechanisms of connectivity we can relate the degree of connectivity to the geometry, state of stress, and material properties of the reservoir rocks and, in turn, be in a position to evaluate the influence of these factors on fracture permeability.

  18. Probing flame chemistry with MBMS, theory, and modeling. Annual progress report, July 15, 1993--July 14, 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Westmoreland, P.R.

    1994-04-01

    Propene/oxygen/argon flames have been mapped and modeled at fuel-lean ({phi} = 0.229;30 Torr) conditions and fuel-rich conditions ({phi} = 1.64;35 Torr). Objective is to establish kinetics of combustion and molecular-weight growth in C{sub 3} hydrocarbon flames as part of an ongoing study of flame chemistry. In the past year, we made extensive re-measurements of temperature because previous modeling suggested that the temperature profiles were wrong. The new measurements changed only slightly from the previous measurements. Instead, continued modeling of the lean propane flame and of ethene flames revealed that the problem was inadequacies in the earlier reaction set. Corrections from the literature and from theoretical kinetics resolved nearly all the problems except for allyl, which was overpredicted by {times} 20 to {times} 30. This error is corrected by identifying a new reaction of allyl+O{sub 2} with a rate constant of (3{plus_minus}1) {times} 10{sup 12} at 1000--1700 K, probably forming propenal+OH.

  19. Measurement and modeling of energetic material mass transfer to soil pore water :project CP-1227 FY03 annual technical report.

    SciTech Connect

    Phelan, James M.; Barnett, James L.; Kerr, Dayle R.

    2004-01-01

    Military test and training ranges operate with live fire engagements to provide realism important to the maintenance of key tactical skills. Ordnance detonations during these operations typically produce minute residues of parent explosive chemical compounds. Occasional low order detonations also disperse solid phase energetic material onto the surface soil. These detonation remnants are implicated in chemical contamination impacts to groundwater on a limited set of ranges where environmental characterization projects have occurred. Key questions arise regarding how these residues and the environmental conditions (e.g., weather and geostratigraphy) contribute to groundwater pollution impacts. This report documents interim results of experimental work evaluating mass transfer processes from solid phase energetics to soil pore water. The experimental work is used as a basis to formulate a mass transfer numerical model, which has been incorporated into the porous media simulation code T2TNT. This report documents the results of the Phase III experimental effort, which evaluated the impacts of surface deposits versus buried deposits, energetic material particle size, and low order detonation debris. Next year, the energetic material mass transfer model will be refined and a 2-d screening model will be developed for initial site-specific applications. A technology development roadmap was created to show how specific R&D efforts are linked to technology and products for key customers.

  20. Annual Research Briefs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

    1997-01-01

    This report contains the 1997 annual progress reports of the research fellows and students supported by the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR). Titles include: Invariant modeling in large-eddy simulation of turbulence; Validation of large-eddy simulation in a plain asymmetric diffuser; Progress in large-eddy simulation of trailing-edge turbulence and aeronautics; Resolution requirements in large-eddy simulations of shear flows; A general theory of discrete filtering for LES in complex geometry; On the use of discrete filters for large eddy simulation; Wall models in large eddy simulation of separated flow; Perspectives for ensemble average LES; Anisotropic grid-based formulas for subgrid-scale models; Some modeling requirements for wall models in large eddy simulation; Numerical simulation of 3D turbulent boundary layers using the V2F model; Accurate modeling of impinging jet heat transfer; Application of turbulence models to high-lift airfoils; Advances in structure-based turbulence modeling; Incorporating realistic chemistry into direct numerical simulations of turbulent non-premixed combustion; Effects of small-scale structure on turbulent mixing; Turbulent premixed combustion in the laminar flamelet and the thin reaction zone regime; Large eddy simulation of combustion instabilities in turbulent premixed burners; On the generation of vorticity at a free-surface; Active control of turbulent channel flow; A generalized framework for robust control in fluid mechanics; Combined immersed-boundary/B-spline methods for simulations of flow in complex geometries; and DNS of shock boundary-layer interaction - preliminary results for compression ramp flow.

  1. High tandem repeat content in the genome of the short-lived annual fish Nothobranchius furzeri: a new vertebrate model for aging research

    PubMed Central

    Reichwald, Kathrin; Lauber, Chris; Nanda, Indrajit; Kirschner, Jeanette; Hartmann, Nils; Schories, Susanne; Gausmann, Ulrike; Taudien, Stefan; Schilhabel, Markus B; Szafranski, Karol; Glöckner, Gernot; Schmid, Michael; Cellerino, Alessandro; Schartl, Manfred; Englert, Christoph; Platzer, Matthias

    2009-01-01

    Background The annual fish Nothobranchius furzeri is the vertebrate with the shortest known life span in captivity. Fish of the GRZ strain live only three to four months under optimal laboratory conditions, show explosive growth, early sexual maturation and age-dependent physiological and behavioral decline, and express aging related biomarkers. Treatment with resveratrol and low temperature significantly extends the maximum life span. These features make N. furzeri a promising new vertebrate model for age research. Results To contribute to establishing N. furzeri as a new model organism, we provide a first insight into its genome and a comparison to medaka, stickleback, tetraodon and zebrafish. The N. furzeri genome contains 19 chromosomes (2n = 38). Its genome of between 1.6 and 1.9 Gb is the largest among the analyzed fish species and has, at 45%, the highest repeat content. Remarkably, tandem repeats comprise 21%, which is 4-12 times more than in the other four fish species. In addition, G+C-rich tandem repeats preferentially localize to centromeric regions. Phylogenetic analysis based on coding sequences identifies medaka as the closest relative. Genotyping of an initial set of 27 markers and multi-locus fingerprinting of one microsatellite provides the first molecular evidence that the GRZ strain is highly inbred. Conclusions Our work presents a first basis for systematic genomic and genetic analyses aimed at understanding the mechanisms of life span determination in N. furzeri. PMID:19210790

  2. High tandem repeat content in the genome of the short-lived annual fish Nothobranchius furzeri: a new vertebrate model for aging research.

    PubMed

    Reichwald, Kathrin; Lauber, Chris; Nanda, Indrajit; Kirschner, Jeanette; Hartmann, Nils; Schories, Susanne; Gausmann, Ulrike; Taudien, Stefan; Schilhabel, Markus B; Szafranski, Karol; Glöckner, Gernot; Schmid, Michael; Cellerino, Alessandro; Schartl, Manfred; Englert, Christoph; Platzer, Matthias

    2009-02-11

    The annual fish Nothobranchius furzeri is the vertebrate with the shortest known life span in captivity. Fish of the GRZ strain live only three to four months under optimal laboratory conditions, show explosive growth, early sexual maturation and age-dependent physiological and behavioral decline, and express aging related biomarkers. Treatment with resveratrol and low temperature significantly extends the maximum life span. These features make N. furzeri a promising new vertebrate model for age research. To contribute to establishing N. furzeri as a new model organism, we provide a first insight into its genome and a comparison to medaka, stickleback, tetraodon and zebrafish. The N. furzeri genome contains 19 chromosomes (2n = 38). Its genome of between 1.6 and 1.9 Gb is the largest among the analyzed fish species and has, at 45%, the highest repeat content. Remarkably, tandem repeats comprise 21%, which is 4-12 times more than in the other four fish species. In addition, G+C-rich tandem repeats preferentially localize to centromeric regions. Phylogenetic analysis based on coding sequences identifies medaka as the closest relative. Genotyping of an initial set of 27 markers and multi-locus fingerprinting of one microsatellite provides the first molecular evidence that the GRZ strain is highly inbred. Our work presents a first basis for systematic genomic and genetic analyses aimed at understanding the mechanisms of life span determination in N. furzeri.

  3. Inter-annual Variability of Evapotranspiration in a Semi-arid Oak-savanna Ecosystem: Measured and Modeled Buffering to Precipitation Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raz-Yaseef, N.; Sonnentag, O.; Kobayashi, H.; Baldocchi, D. D.

    2010-12-01

    Precipitation (P) is the primary control on vegetation dynamics and productivity, implying that climate induced disturbances in frequency and timing of P are intimately coupled with fluxes of carbon, water and energy. Future climate change is expected to increase extreme rainfall events as well as droughts, suggesting linked vegetation changes to an unknown extent. Semi-arid climates experience large inter-annual variability (IAV) in P, creating natural conditions adequate to study how year-to-year changes in P affect atmosphere-biosphere fluxes. We used a 10-year flux database collected at a semi-arid savanna site in order to: (1) define IAV in P by means of frequency and timing; (2) investigate how changes in P affect the ecohydrology of the forest and its partitioning into the main vapor fluxes, and (3) evaluate model capability to predict IAV of carbon and water fluxes above and below the canopy. This is based on the perception that the capability of process-oriented models to construct the deviation, and not the average, is important in order to correctly predict ecosystem sensitivity to climate change. Our research site was a low density and low LAI (0.8) semi-arid (P=523±180 mm yr-1) savanna site, combined of oaks and grass, and located at Tonzi ranch, California. Measurements of carbon and water fluxes above and below the tree canopy using eddy covariance and supplementary measurements have been made since 2001. Measured fluxes were compared to modeled based on two bio-meteorological process-oriented ecosystem models: BEPS and 3D-CAONAK. Our results show that IAV in P was large, and standard deviation (STD) was 38% of the average. Accordingly, the wet soil period (measured volumetric water content > 8%) varied between 156 days in dry years to 301 days in wet years. IAV of the vapor fluxes were lower than that of P (STD was 17% for the trees and 23% for the floor components), suggesting on ecosystem buffering to changes in P. The timing of grass green up

  4. Inter-annual variability of air pollutants over East Asia: an integrated analysis using satellite, lidar and numerical model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yumimoto, K.; Uno, I.; Kuribayashi, M.; Miyazaki, K.; Nishizawa, T.

    2014-12-01

    Air quality in East Asia has a drastic temporal and spatial variability. The rapid economic growth in the last three decades enhanced the increase of anthropogenic emission of air pollutions, and caused deterioration of the air quality in both source and downwind regions. The unprecedented heavy PM­2.5 pollution over the central China in January 2013 records the maximum PM2.5 concentration of 996 μg/m3 and raised critical environmental issues (e.g., mortality, human health, social activity and trans-boundary transport, etc.). Recently, efforts to reduce anthropogenic emissions (e.g., emission regulations and improvements of emission factors and removal efficiencies) decelerate their growth rates. In fact, Asian SO2 emission is estimated to be reducing from 2007 [Kurokawa et al., 2013]. However, growth rates other pollutant emissions (e.g., NOx and PM10) still remain in high. To understand the life cycle of pollutants (emission, transport, reaction and deposition) and their temporal and spatial variation, an integrated analysis using observation and numerical model (chemical transport model; CTM) is useful. In this study, we installed a comprehensive observation operator system, which converts model results into observed variables, into the GEOS-Chem CTM. A long-term (2005-2013) full-chemistry simulation over East Asia was performed, and simulation results are translated to tropospheric NO2 and SO2 columns and vertical profiles of aerosol extinction coefficient equivalent to satellite measurements and in-situ lidar network observations. Combining CTM and observations, and integrating analyses of aerosols over the downwind region and their precursors over the source region will provide important insights into temporal and spatial variation of air pollutants over East Asia.

  5. 1994 MCAP annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Harmony, S.C.; Boyack, B.E.

    1995-04-01

    VELCOR is an integrated, engineering-level computer code that models the progression of severe accidents in light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants. The entire spectrum of severe accident phenomena, including reactor coolant system and containment thermal-hydraulic response, core heatup, degradation and relocation, and fission product release and transport is treated in MELCOR in a unified framework for both boiling water reactors (BWRs) and pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Its current uses include the estimation of severe accident source terms and their sensitivities and uncertainties in a variety of applications. Independent assessment efforts have been successfully completed by the US and international MELCOR user communities. Most of these independent assessment efforts have been conducted to support the needs and fulfill the requirements of the individual user organizations. The resources required to perform an extensive set of model and integral code assessments are large. A prudent approach to fostering code development and maturation is to coordinate the individual assessment efforts of the MELCOR user community. While retaining individual control over assessment resources, each organization using the MELCOR code could work with the other users to broaden assessment coverage and minimize duplication. In recognition of these considerations, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) has initiated the MELCOR Cooperative Assessment Program (MCAP), a vehicle for coordinating and standardizing the assessment practices of the various MELCOR users. In addition, the user community will have a forum to better communicate lessons learned regarding MELCOR applications, capabilities, and user guidelines and limitations and to provide a user community perspective on code development needs and priorities. This second Annual Report builds on the foundation laid with the first Annual Report.

  6. Processing and modeling issues for thin-film solar cell devices. Annual subcontract report, January 16, 1994--January 15, 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Birkmire, R.W.; Phillips, J.E.; Buchanan, W.A.; Hegedus, S.S.; McCandless, B.E.; Shafarman, W.N.

    1995-06-01

    This report describes results achieved during the second phase of a four year subcontract to develop and understand thin film solar cell technology related to a-Si and its alloys, CuIn{sub 1{minus}x}Ga{sub x}Se{sub 2}, and CdTe. Accomplishments during this phase include, development of equations and reaction rates for the formation of CuIn{sub 1{minus}x}Ga{sub x}Se{sub 2} films by selenization, fabrication of a 15% efficient CuIn{sub 1{minus}x}Ga{sub x}Se{sub 2} cell, development of a reproducible, reliable Cu-diffused contact to CdTe, investigation of the role of CdTe-CdS interdiffusion on device operation, investigation of the substitution of HCl for CdCl{sub 2} in the post-deposition heat treatment of CdTe/CdS, demonstration of an improved reactor design for deposition of a-Si films, demonstration of improved process control in the fabrication of a ten set series of runs producing {approximately}8% efficient a-Si devices, demonstration of the utility of a simplified optical model for determining quantity and effect of current generation in each layer of a triple stacked a-Si cell, presentation of analytical and modeling procedures adapted to devices produced with each material system, presentation of baseline parameters for devices produced with each material system, and various investigations of the roles played by other layers in thin film devices including the Mo underlayer, CdS and ZnO in CuIn{sub 1{minus}x}Ga{sub x}Se{sub 2} devices, the CdS in CdTe devices, and the ZnO as window layer and as part of the back surface reflector in a-Si devices. In addition, collaborations with over ten research groups are briefly described. 73 refs., 54 figs., 34 tabs.

  7. Jets, eddies & waves in Saturn's troposphere and stratosphere from multi-annual high-resolution Global Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiga, Aymeric; Guerlet, Sandrine; Meurdesoif, Yann; Indurain, Mikel; Millour, Ehouarn; Sylvestre, Melody; Dubos, Thomas; Fouchet, Thierry

    2016-10-01

    A mission as richly instrumented as Cassini has brought a new impulse to the studies of Saturn's atmospheric fluid dynamics, to be further extended to Jupiter by the Juno mission.We recently built an innovative Global Climate Model (GCM) for giant planets by coupling our complete seasonal radiative model [Guerlet Icarus 2014] with a new hydrodynamical solver using an original icosahedral mapping of the planetary sphere to ensure excellent conservation and scalability properties in massively parallel computing resources [Dubos GMD 2015].Here we describe the insights gained from GCM simulations for Saturn with both unprecedented horizontal resolutions (reference at 1/2° latitude/longitude, and tests at 1/4° and 1/8°), integrated time (up to ten simulated Saturn years), and large vertical extent (from the troposphere to the stratosphere).Starting from a windless initial state, our 10-year-long GCM simulation for Saturn reproduce alterned tropospheric mid-latitude jets bearing similarities with the observed jet system (numbering, intensity, width). We demonstrate that those jets are eddy-driven with a conversion rate from eddies to mean flow in agreement with Cassini estimates. Before reaching equilibrium, mid-latitude jets experience poleward migration, which can be ascribed to a self-destabilization of the jets by barotropic and baroclinic instabilities.Our Saturn GCM also predicts in the equator the presence of eastward-propagating Rossby-gravity (Yanai) and westward-propagating Rossby waves, reminiscent of similar waves in the terrestrial tropics. Furthermore, our GCM simulations exhibit a stratospheric meridional circulation from one tropic to the other, with a seasonal reversal, which allows us to investigate the possible dynamical control on the observed variations of hydrocarbon species.In contrast to observations, in our GCM simulations the equatorial jet is only weakly super-rotating and the polar jet is strongly destabilized by meandering. Moreover, in

  8. Nitrogen and phosphorus seasonal dynamics and annual budget in the Northwestern Mediterranean deep convection region inferred from a 3D physical/biogeochemical coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kessouri, Fayçal; Ulses, Caroline; Estournel, Claude; Marsaleix, Patrick; Pujo-Pay, Mireille; Severin, Tatiana; Caparros, Jocelyne; Raimbault, Patrick; Pasqueron de Fommervault, Orens; D'Ortenzio, Fabrizio; Taillandier, Vincent; Testor, Pierre; Conan, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    A multi-element biogeochemical model forced by a 1 km resolution hydrodynamical model was used to gain in understanding of the biogeochemical functioning of the North-Western Mediterranean (NW Med), the only region in the whole Mediterranean Sea with a marked and recurrent spring bloom behavior related to the winter dense water formation characterizing this area. After an assessment of the simulation using satellite derived chlorophyll and Dewex project in situ nutrients observations, the nitrogen and phosphorus seasonal cycles were analyzed using model outputs on the period 2012-2013. Injections of nutrients during the wind intensification period allow the triggering of the autumn bloom. Then, convection in winter upwells large amounts of nutrients in the euphotic layer. When the conditions for phytoplankton development are gathered (reduction of vertical mixing, low grazing pressure), a bloom is triggered with a massive consumption of nutrients during more than one month resulting at the end of April in a depletion of nutrients at the surface. Nutrients consumption continues to deplete nutrients at increasing depth, increasing the nutriclines and deep chlorophyll maximum depths. That finally leads to the summer oligotrophy of the water column. Then a quantification of nitrogen and phosphorus budgets of the open-sea convection area was performed on an annual basis. The deep convection area represents a sink of nitrate and phosphate, and a source of organic nitrogen and phosphorus for the peripheric regions. Regarding the biogeochemical nitrogen cycle, the deep-nitrate based new production is responsible for 19% of the total nitrogen uptake. This new production dominates during the winter deep convection and spring bloom periods. Finally, our results suggest that the NW Med open sea convection represents a major source of nutrients for the Mediterranean surface sea.

  9. Processing and modeling issues for thin-film solar cell devices: Annual subcontract report, January 16, 1995 -- January 15, 1996

    SciTech Connect

    Birkmire, R W; Phillips, J E; Buchanan, W A; Eser, E; Hegedus, S S; McCandless, B E; Meyers, P V; Shafarman, W N

    1996-08-01

    The overall mission of the Institute of Energy Conversion is the development of thin film photovoltaic cells, modules, and related manufacturing technology and the education of students and professionals in photovoltaic technology. The objectives of this four-year NREL subcontract are to advance the state of the art and the acceptance of thin film PV modules in the areas of improved technology for thin film deposition, device fabrication, and material and device characterization and modeling, relating to solar cells based on CuInSe{sub 2} and its alloys, on a-Si and its alloys, and on CdTe. In the area of CuInSe{sub 2} and its alloys, EEC researchers have produced CuIn{sub 1-x}GaxSe{sub 2} films by selenization of elemental and alloyed films with H{sub 2}Se and Se vapor and by a wide variety of process variations employing co-evaporation of the elements. Careful design, execution and analysis of these experiments has led to an improved understanding of the reaction chemistry involved, including estimations of the reaction rate constants. Investigation of device fabrication has also included studies of the processing of the Mo, US and ZnO deposition parameters and their influence on device properties. An indication of the success of these procedures was the fabrication of a 15% efficiency CuIn{sub 1-x}GaxSe{sub 2} solar cell.

  10. Modelling the impact of variations in ice sheet runoff on fjord and coastal biological productivity over annual to decadal timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sole, A. J.; Cowton, T. R.

    2015-12-01

    Each summer, vast quantities of surface-derived ice sheet meltwater runs off from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Much of this runoff is injected into glaciated fjords at depth beneath marine-terminating glaciers. Due to its low relative density, the runoff rises as a buoyant plume up the glaciers' calving fronts, entraining deep fjord water as it does so. This deep, ambient water tends to be relatively rich in nutrients and so the runoff plumes act to fertilise the surface layers of the fjord, leading to an observed late season spike in biological productivity in the fjord's surface layers. Although surface melting and runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet are predicted to increase significantly in the coming years and decades, the potential effect of this on fjord and coastal biological productivity is yet to be quantified. Here we present simulations of fjord circulation and biological productivity using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), and a new coupled representation of buoyant runoff plumes which enables decadal time period experiments of large three dimensional fjords. We investigate the effect on biological productivity of varying ice sheet runoff, ocean properties, near-surface winds and fjord geometry and bathymetry. We find that variations in ice sheet runoff are particularly important for biological productivity because the rate of discharge controls the depth at which the plumes reach neutral buoyancy and therefore whether the nutrient-rich deep water is delivered to the photic zone.

  11. Annual gonadal cycles in birds: modeling the effects of photoperiod on seasonal changes in GnRH-1 secretion.

    PubMed

    Dawson, Alistair

    2015-04-01

    This paper reviews current knowledge of photoperiod control of GnRH-1 secretion and proposes a model in which two processes act together to regulate GnRH1 secretion. Photo-induction controls GnRH1 secretion and is directly related to prevailing photoperiod. Photo-inhibition, a longer term process, acts through GnRH1 synthesis. It progresses each day during daylight hours, but reverses during darkness. Thus, photo-inhibition gradually increases when photoperiods exceed 12h, and reverses under shorter photoperiods. GnRH1 secretion on any particular day is the net result of these two processes acting in tandem. The only difference between species is their sensitivity to photo-inhibition. This can potentially explain differences in timing and duration of breeding seasons between species, why some species become absolutely photorefractory and others relatively photorefractory, why breeding seasons end at the same time at different latitudes within species, and why experimental protocols sometimes produce results that appear counter to what happens naturally.

  12. Common garden test of range limits as predicted by a species distribution model in the annual plant Mimulus bicolor.

    PubMed

    Dixon, Andrea L; Busch, Jeremiah W

    2017-06-01

    Direct tests of a species distribution model (SDM) were used to evaluate the hypothesis that the northern and southern edges of Mimulus bicolor's geographical range are limited by temperature and precipitation. Climatic suitability was predicted using an SDM informed only by temperature and precipitation variables. These predictions were tested by growing plants in growth chambers with temperature and watering treatments informed by weather stations characteristic of environments at the geographic center, edges, and outside the range. An Aster analysis was used to assess whether treatments significantly affected lifetime flower production and to test for local adaptation. The relationship between climatic suitability and lifetime flower number in the growth chambers was also evaluated. The temperature and watering treatments significantly affected lifetime flower number, although local adaptation was not detected. Flower production was significantly lower under the two edge treatments compared to the central treatment. While no flowers were produced under the beyond-south treatments, flower production was greatest under the beyond-north treatment. These results suggest a hard abiotic limit at the southern edge, and suitable temperature and precipitation conditions beyond the northern edge. While predicted climatic suitability was significantly lower at the range edges, there was no correlation between the climatic suitability of the weather stations' locations and flower production. These results suggest that temperature and precipitation play a significant role in defining the distribution of M. bicolor, but also indicate that dispersal limitation or metapopulation dynamics are likely important factors restricting access to habitable sites beyond the northern range limit. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

  13. Annual variation in habitat-specific recruitment success: Implications from an individual-based model of Lake Michigan alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hook, T.O.; Rutherford, E.S.; Croley, T.E.; Mason, D.M.; Madenjian, C.P.

    2008-01-01

    The identification of important spawning and nursery habitats for fish stocks can aid fisheries management, but is complicated by various factors, including annual variation in recruitment success. The alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) is an ecologically important species in Lake Michigan that utilizes a variety of habitats for spawning and early life growth. While productive, warm tributary mouths (connected to Lake Michigan) may contribute disproportionately more recruits (relative to their habitat volume) to the adult alewife population than cooler, less productive nearshore habitats, the extent of interannual variation in the relative contributions of recruits from these two habitat types remains unknown. We used an individual-based bioenergetics simulation model and input data on daily temperatures to estimate alewife recruitment to the adult population by these different habitat types. Simulations suggest that nearshore lake habitats typically produce the vast majority of young alewife recruits. However, tributary habitats may contribute the majority of alewife recruits during years of low recruitment. We suggest that high interannual variation in the relative importance of habitats for recruitment is a common phenomenon, which should be considered when developing habitat management plans for fish populations. ?? 2008 NRC.

  14. Seasonal and Inter-annual Variability in Modeled Larval Dispersal and Population Connectivity of Blue Crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gyory, J.; Jones, B.; Ko, D. S.; Taylor, C.

    2016-02-01

    Larval dispersal trajectories and their resulting population connectivity patterns are known to be key drivers of population dynamics for many marine organisms. However, few studies to date have examined the temporal variability in population connectivity. Here, we model the larval dispersal and population connectivity of blue crabs in the northern Gulf of Mexico from 2003-2012 and use network analyses to understand how they vary over seasonal and inter-annual scales. We found that in all years, the Mississippi River Delta is a barrier to dispersal. Few larvae cross it and settle successfully. In some years (2004, 2007, 2008, and 2009), 1-2 locations (Adams Bay and Chandeleur Sound) had high (> 0.3) betweenness centrality. These locations are likely to be important for maintaining population connectivity in the region, since more than 30% of larval pathways are predicted to pass through them. Connectivity matrices suggest that some estuaries have consistently high larval retention rates. These include West Cote Blanche Bay, Chandeleur Sound, and, in some years, Pensacola Bay and Atchafalaya Bay. Within the spawning season, we observe a decline in average vertex degree and average source strength in every year. This suggests that seasonal declines in the strength of along-shore currents produce consistent reductions in population connectivity through the spawning season.

  15. Annual Research Briefs: 1995

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    This report contains the 1995 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR). In 1995 CTR continued its concentration on the development and application of large-eddy simulation to complex flows, development of novel modeling concepts for engineering computations in the Reynolds averaged framework, and turbulent combustion. In large-eddy simulation, a number of numerical and experimental issues have surfaced which are being addressed. The first group of reports in this volume are on large-eddy simulation. A key finding in this area was the revelation of possibly significant numerical errors that may overwhelm the effects of the subgrid-scale model. We also commissioned a new experiment to support the LES validation studies. The remaining articles in this report are concerned with Reynolds averaged modeling, studies of turbulence physics and flow generated sound, combustion, and simulation techniques. Fundamental studies of turbulent combustion using direct numerical simulations which started at CTR will continue to be emphasized. These studies and their counterparts carried out during the summer programs have had a noticeable impact on combustion research world wide.

  16. Evaluating the present annual water budget of a Himalayan headwater river basin using a high-resolution atmosphere-hydrology model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Lu; Gochis, David J.; Sobolowski, Stefan; Mesquita, Michel d. S.

    2016-04-01

    regional hydroclimatic forcings and responses are reasonably reproduced. Given the full annual cycle of pattern and amount in high altitude precipitation and the statistical correspondence in discharge, it is concluded that coupled modeling system shows potential for explicitly predicting the atmospheric-hydrology cycle of ungauged or poorly gauged basins.

  17. Model-based estimates of annual survival rate are preferable to observed maximum lifespan statistics for use in comparative life-history studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.

    1989-01-01

    Estimates of longevity are available for many animals, and are commonly used in comparative life-history analyses. We suggest that annual survival rate is more appropriate life history parameter for most comparative life history analyses. Observed maximum longevities were not correlated with the annual survival rate estimates and appear to be unstable over time. We recommend that observed maximum lifespans not be used in life history analyses.

  18. Annual and semi-annual cycle of equatorial Atlantic circulation associated with basin mode resonance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brandt, Peter; Claus, Martin; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Kopte, Robert; Toole, John M.; Johns, William E.; Böning, Claus W.

    2016-04-01

    Seasonal variability of the tropical Atlantic circulation is dominated by the annual cycle, but semi-annual variability is also pronounced, despite weak forcing at that period. Here we use multi-year, full depth velocity measurements from the central equatorial Atlantic to analyze the vertical structure of annual and semi-annual variations of zonal velocity. A baroclinic modal decomposition finds that the annual cycle is dominated by the 4th mode and the semi-annual cycle by the 2nd mode. Similar local behavior is found in a high-resolution general circulation model. This simulation reveals that the annual and semi-annual cycles of the respective dominant baroclinic modes are associated with characteristic basin-wide structures. Using an idealized linear reduced-gravity model to simulate the dynamics of individual baroclinic modes, it is shown that the observed circulation variability can be best explained by resonant equatorial basin modes. Companion simulations using the reduced-gravity model varying the basin geometry, i.e. square basin versus realistic coastlines, and forcing, i.e. spatially uniform versus spatially varying wind forcing, show a structural robustness of the simulated basin modes. A main focus of this study is the seasonal variability of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) as identified in recent observational studies. Main characteristics of the observed EUC including seasonal variability of transport, core depth, and maximum core velocity can be explained by the linear superposition of the dominant equatorial basin modes as obtained from the reduced-gravity model.

  19. Annual Technical Report.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-11-01

    T ’ .. . . . -. . . . , . . . - . ... - -. --- ~ . . . ..... .... IIS~ANNUAL TECHNICAL REPORT K-TO THE OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH CONTRACT No, N00014...RIECIPICHT’S CATC1.O@ NUM@SA 4. TITLE (sn$ S-611fleI) ’I TYPE OP RErPORT A Pimo0o COVEREC, Annual Technical Report Am~4~10/01ZS-9130/26 S.PERFORMING

  20. Annual Energy Review, 2008

    SciTech Connect

    2009-06-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are statistics on total energy production, consumption, trade, and energy prices; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and international energy; financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversions.

  1. Annual Review of Biophysics.

    PubMed

    Hatzis, Christos

    2013-07-01

    Annual Review of Biophysics Rees D. Dill K., Williamson J., Annual Reviews Palo Alto, CA, 2010. 581 pp. (hardcover), ISBN: 978-0-8243-1839-0, © 2013 Doody's Review Service. Doody's Review Service. © 2013 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

  2. Annual Data Profile, 1998.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, Austin. Community Colleges and Technical Institutes Div.

    This document is a compilation of annual data profile tables, Perkins measures, and institutional effectiveness measures and standards for South Texas Community College, 1998. Data highlights include: (1) total annual enrollment in 1996-97 was 11,508 (872 white; 29 black; 10,526 Hispanic; 69 Asian; 9 Native American; 3 international; and 81…

  3. Annual Partnership Report, 2016

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyoming Community College Commission, 2016

    2016-01-01

    The "Annual Partnership Report" catalogs partnerships that Wyoming community colleges established and maintained for each fiscal year. This partnership report fulfills statutory reporting requirement W.S. 21-18-202(e)(iv) which mandates the development of annual reports to the legislature on the outcomes of partnerships between colleges…

  4. 2014 HPC Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Jennings, Barbara

    2014-10-01

    Our commitment is to support you through delivery of an IT environment that provides mission value by transforming the way you use, protect, and access information. We approach this through technical innovation, risk management, and relationships with our workforce, Laboratories leadership, and policy makers nationwide. This second edition of our HPC Annual Report continues our commitment to communicate the details and impact of Sandia’s large-scale computing resources that support the programs associated with our diverse mission areas. A key tenet to our approach is to work with our mission partners to understand and anticipate their requirements and formulate an investment strategy that is aligned with those Laboratories priorities. In doing this, our investments include not only expanding the resources available for scientific computing and modeling and simulation, but also acquiring large-scale systems for data analytics, cloud computing, and Emulytics. We are also investigating new computer architectures in our advanced systems test bed to guide future platform designs and prepare for changes in our code development models. Our initial investments in large-scale institutional platforms that are optimized for Informatics and Emulytics work are serving a diverse customer base. We anticipate continued growth and expansion of these resources in the coming years as the use of these analytic techniques expands across our mission space. If your program could benefit from an investment in innovative systems, please work through your Program Management Unit ’s Mission Computing Council representatives to engage our teams.

  5. Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Annual Maximum and Annual Maximum Moving-Average Concentrations of Atrazine in Streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Crawford, Charles G.

    2008-01-01

    Regression models were developed for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average concentrations of atrazine in streams using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The current effort builds on the original WARP models, which were based on the annual mean and selected percentiles of the annual frequency distribution of atrazine concentrations. Estimates of annual maximum and annual maximum moving-average concentrations for selected durations are needed to characterize the levels of atrazine and other pesticides for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks for evaluation of potential concerns regarding human health or aquatic life. Separate regression models were derived for the annual maximum and annual maximum 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving-average concentrations. Development of the regression models used the same explanatory variables, transformations, model development data, model validation data, and regression methods as those used in the original development of WARP. The models accounted for 72 to 75 percent of the variability in the concentration statistics among the 112 sampling sites used for model development. Predicted concentration statistics from the four models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentration statistics for most of the model development and validation sites. Overall, performance of the models for the development and validation sites supports the application of the WARP models for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentration in streams and provides a framework to interpret the predictions in terms of uncertainty. For streams with inadequate direct measurements of atrazine concentrations, the WARP model predictions for the annual maximum and the annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentrations can be used to characterize

  6. Phylogeny, genetic variability and colour polymorphism of an emerging animal model: the short-lived annual Nothobranchius fishes from southern Mozambique.

    PubMed

    Dorn, A; Ng'oma, E; Janko, K; Reichwald, K; Polačik, M; Platzer, M; Cellerino, A; Reichard, M

    2011-12-01

    Nothobranchius are a group of small, extremely short-lived killifishes living in temporary savannah pools in Eastern Africa and that survive annual desiccation of their habitat as dormant eggs encased in dry mud. One mitochondrial (COI) and three nuclear (CX32.2, GHITM, PNP) loci were used to investigate the phylogenetic relationship of Nothobranchius species from southern and central Mozambique. This group shows marked variation in captive lifespan at both the inter- and intraspecific levels; lifespan varies from a few months to over a year. As their distribution encompasses a steep gradient between semi-arid and humid habitats, resulting in contrasting selection pressures on evolution of lifespan and associated life history traits, Mozambican Nothobranchius spp. have recently become a model group in studies of ageing, age-related disorders and life history evolution. Consequently, intraspecific genetic variation and male colour morph distribution was also examined in the recovered clades. Using Bayesian species tree reconstruction and single loci analyses, three large clades were apparent and their phylogenetic substructure was revealed at the inter- and intra-specific levels within those clades. The Nothobranchius furzeri and Nothobranchius orthonotus clades were strongly geographically structured. Further, it was demonstrated that male colour has no phylogenetic signal in N. furzeri, where colour morphs are sympatric, but is associated with two reciprocally monophyletic groups in Nothobranchius rachovii clade, where colour morphs are parapatric. Finally, our analysis showed that a polymorphism in the Melanocortin1 receptor gene (which controls pigmentation in many vertebrates and was a candidate gene of male colouration in N. furzeri) is unrelated to colour phenotypes of the study species. Our results raise significant implications for future comparative studies of the species and populations analysed in the present work.

  7. Modeling Impacts of Alternative Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Rice–Wheat Annual Rotation in China

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jinyang; Zhang, Xiaolin; Liu, Yinglie; Pan, Xiaojian; Liu, Pingli; Chen, Zhaozhi; Huang, Taiqing; Xiong, Zhengqin

    2012-01-01

    Background Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. Materials and Methods Measured data of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC) model to a winter wheat – single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year) impacts on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI). Principal Results The simulated cumulative CH4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1) high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH4 emissions, (2) high inorganic N fertilizer increased N2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N2O emissions, (3) the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR) under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha−1 yr−1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4) the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. Conclusions In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified cropping system. PMID

  8. Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results.

  9. Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook

    EIA Publications

    2017-01-01

    This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results.

  10. 2010 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    2010-01-01

    This annual report includes: an overview of Western; approaches for future hydropower and transmission service; major achievements in FY 2010; FY 2010 customer Integrated Resource Planning, or IRP, survey; and financial data.

  11. TARDEC Annual Report 2010

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-15

    working on specific technologies, such as automotive capabilities, materials and software development. The benefits of these collaborations are two-fold...ANNUAL REPORT U.S. ARMY TANK AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND ENGINEERING CENTER TWO THOUSAND TEN Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No...unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Tank- Automotive Research Development and Engineering Center (TARDEC) Fiscal Year (FY) 10 Annual Report 14. ABSTRACT

  12. Natural gas annual 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1996-11-01

    The Natural Gas Annual provides information on the supply and disposition of natural gas to a wide audience including industry, consumers, Federal and State agencies, and educational institutions. The 1995 data are presented in a sequence that follows natural gas (including supplemental supplies) from its production to its end use. This is followed by tables summarizing natural gas supply and disposition from 1991 to 1995 for each Census Division and each State. Annual historical data are shown at the national level.

  13. Natural gas annual 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1995-11-17

    The Natural Gas Annual provides information on the supply and disposition of natural gas to a wide audience including industry, consumers, Federal and State agencies, and educational institutions. The 1994 data are presented in a sequence that follows natural gas (including supplemental supplies) from its production to its end use. This is followed by tables summarizing natural gas supply and disposition from 1990 to 1994 for each Census Division and each State. Annual historical data are shown at the national level.

  14. Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

    Treesearch

    Donald J. Brown; Christine A. Ribic; Deahn M. Donner; Mark D. Nelson; Carol I. Bocetti; Christie M. Deloria-Sheffield; Des Thompson

    2017-01-01

    Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii...

  15. Dimethylsulfide Chemistry: Annual, Seasonal, and Spatial Impacts on Sulfate

    EPA Science Inventory

    We incorporated oceanic emissions and atmospheric chemistry of dimethylsulfide (DMS) into the hemispheric Community Multiscale Air Quality model and performed annual model simulations without and with DMS chemistry. The model without DMS chemistry predicts higher concentrations o...

  16. Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) annual anesthesiology residency and fellowship program review: a "report card" model for continuous improvement.

    PubMed

    Rose, Steven H; Long, Timothy R

    2010-02-08

    The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) requires an annual evaluation of all ACGME-accredited residency and fellowship programs to assess program quality. The results of this evaluation must be used to improve the program. This manuscript describes a metric to be used in conducting ACGME-mandated annual program review of ACGME-accredited anesthesiology residencies and fellowships. A variety of metrics to assess anesthesiology residency and fellowship programs are identified by the authors through literature review and considered for use in constructing a program "report card." Metrics used to assess program quality include success in achieving American Board of Anesthesiology (ABA) certification, performance on the annual ABA/American Society of Anesthesiology In-Training Examination, performance on mock oral ABA certification examinations, trainee scholarly activities (publications and presentations), accreditation site visit and internal review results, ACGME and alumni survey results, National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) results, exit interview feedback, diversity data and extensive program/rotation/faculty/curriculum evaluations by trainees and faculty. The results are used to construct a "report card" that provides a high-level review of program performance and can be used in a continuous quality improvement process. An annual program review is required to assess all ACGME-accredited residency and fellowship programs to monitor and improve program quality. We describe an annual review process based on metrics that can be used to focus attention on areas for improvement and track program performance year-to-year. A "report card" format is described as a high-level tool to track educational outcomes.

  17. Annual maximum 5-day rainfall total and maximum number of consecutive dry days over Central America and the Caribbean in the late twenty-first century projected by an atmospheric general circulation model with three different horizontal resolutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakaegawa, T.; Kitoh, A.; Murakami, H.; Kusunoki, S.

    2014-04-01

    We simulated changes in annual maximum 5-day rainfall (RX5D) and annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean with three different horizontal resolution atmospheric global general circulation models (AGCMs) and quantified the uncertainty of the projections. The RX5Ds and CDDs were projected to increase in most areas in response to global warming. However, consistent changes were confined to small areas: for RX5D, both coastal zones of northern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula; for CDD, the Pacific coastal zone of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Guatemala. All three AGCMs projected that RX5Ds and CDDs averaged over only the land area and over the entire area (land and ocean) would increase. The dependence of RX5D probability density functions on the horizontal resolutions was complex. Precipitation unrelated to tropical cyclones was primarily responsible for the projected increases in the frequency of RX5Ds greater than 300 mm.

  18. 2005 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Chrzanowski, P; Walter, K

    2006-03-31

    As the cover of our ''2005 Annual Report'' highlights, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory joined the international science community in celebrating the World Year of Physics in 2005, with special events and science outreach and education programs. Einstein's remarkable discoveries in 1905 provided an opportunity to reflect on how physics has changed the world during the last century and on the promise of future beneficial discoveries. For half of the past century, Lawrence Livermore, which was established to meet an urgent national security need, has been contributing to the advancement of science and technology in a very special way. Co-founder Ernest O. Lawrence was the leading proponent in his generation of large-scale, multidisciplinary science and technology teams. That's Livermore's distinctive heritage and our continuing approach as a national laboratory managed and operated by the University of California for the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA). We focus on important problems that affect our nation's security and seek breakthrough advances in science and technology to achieve mission goals. An event in 2005 exemplifies our focus on science and technology advances in support of mission goals. In October, distinguished visitors came to Livermore to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (now called the Advanced Simulation and Computing Program, or ASC). ASC was launched in 1995 by DOE/NNSA to achieve a million-fold increase in computing power in a decade. The goal was motivated by the need to simulate the three-dimensional performance of a nuclear weapon in sufficient resolution and with the appropriately detailed physics models included. This mission-driven goal is a key part of fulfilling Livermore's foremost responsibility to ensure that the nuclear weapons in the nation's smaller 21st-century stockpile remain safe, reliable, and secure.

  19. Inter-annual and Intra-annual Variability in River Flow and Inundation in African River Systems: Results from a new pan-African Land-surface Model Validated against Earth Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dadson, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    The role of surface-water flooding in controlling fluxes of water and carbon between the land and the atmosphere is increasingly recognized in studies of the Earth system. Simultaneous advances in remote earth observation and large-scale land-surface and hydrological modeling promise improvements in our ability to understand these linkages, and suggest that improvements in prediction of river flow and inundation extents may result. Here we present an analysis of newly-available observational estimates of surface water inundation obtained through satellite Earth observation with results from simulations produced by using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land-surface model operating at 0.5 degree resolution over the African continent. The model was forced with meteorological input from the WATCH Forcing Data for the period 1981-2001 and sensitivity to various model configurations and parameter settings were tested. Both the PDM and TOPMODEL sub-grid scale runoff generation schemes were tested for parameter sensitivities, with the evaluation focussing on simulated river discharge in sub-catchments of the Congo, Nile, Niger, Orange, Okavango and Zambezi rivers. It was found that whilst the water balance in each of the catchments can be simulated with acceptable accuracy, the individual responses of each river vary between model configurations so that there is no single runoff parameterization scheme or parameter values that yields optimal results across all catchments. We trace these differences to the model's representation of sub-surface flow and make some suggestions to improve the performance of large-scale land-surface models for use in similar applications. Our findings also demonstrate links between episodes of extensive surface water flooding and large-scale climatic indices, although the pattern of correlations contains a level of spatial and temporal detail that warrants careful attention to the climatology of individual situations. These

  20. LLNL NESHAPs 2002 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Harrach, R J; Gallegos, G M; Peterson, S-R; Tate, P J; Bertoldo, N A; Wilson, K R; Althouse, P E; Larson, J M

    2003-06-01

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs; Title 40 Code of Federal Regulations [CFR] Part 61, Subpart H). Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 {micro}Sv) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from operations in 2002 are summarized here: (1) Livermore site: 0.023 mrem (0.23 {micro}Sv) (43% from point-source emissions, 57% from diffuse-source emissions). The point-source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX; the resulting dose is used for compliance purposes; and (2) Site 300: 0.021 mrem (0.21 {micro}Sv) (85% from point-source emissions, 15% from diffuse-source emissions). The EDEs were calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air dispersion/dose-assessment model, except for doses for three diffuse sources, which were calculated from measured concentrations and dose coefficients. Site specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide usage inventory data or continuous stack monitoring data were the specific inputs to CAP88-PC for each modeled source.

  1. LLNL NESHAPs 2003 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Harrach, R J; Gallegos, G M; Peterson, S; Wilson, K R; Althouse, P E; Larson, J M; Bertoldo, N A; Tate, P J; Bowen, B

    2004-06-23

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs; Title 40 Code of Federal Regulations [CFR] Part 61, Subpart H). Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 {micro}Sv) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from operations in 2003 are summarized here. Livermore site: 0.044 mrem (0.44 {micro}Sv) (55% from point-source emissions, 45% from diffuse-source emissions). The point-source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX; the resulting dose is used for compliance purposes. Site 300: 0.017 mrem (0.17 {micro}Sv) (98% from point-source emissions, 2% from diffuse-source emissions). The EDEs were calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air dispersion/dose-assessment model, except for doses for two diffuse sources that were estimated using measured concentrations and dose coefficients. Site specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide usage inventory data or continuous stack monitoring data were the specific inputs to CAP88-PC for each modeled source.

  2. Natural gas annual 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1998-10-01

    The Natural Gas Annual provides information on the supply and disposition of natural gas to a wide audience including industry, consumers, Federal and State agencies, and educational institutions. The 1997 data are presented in a sequence that follows natural gas (including supplemental supplies) from its production to its end use. This is followed by tables summarizing natural gas supply and disposition from 1993 to 1997 for each Census Division and each State. Annual historical data are shown at the national level. 27 figs., 109 tabs.

  3. International energy annual 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1998-02-01

    The International Energy Annual presents an overview of key international energy trends for production, consumption, imports, and exports of primary energy commodities in over 220 countries, dependencies, and areas of special sovereignty. Also included are population and gross domestic product data, as well as prices for crude oil and petroleum products in selected countries. Renewable energy reported in the International Energy Annual includes hydroelectric power, geothermal, solar, and wind electric power, biofuels energy for the US, and biofuels electric power for Brazil. New in the 1996 edition are estimates of carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of petroleum and coal, and the consumption and flaring of natural gas. 72 tabs.

  4. ASE Annual Conference 2010

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCune, Roger

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the author describes the ASE Annual Conference 2010 which was held at Nottingham after a gap of 22 years. As always, the main conference was preceded by International Day, an important event for science educators from across the world. There were two strands to the programme: (1) "What works for me?"--sharing new ideas…

  5. Annual Research Briefs - 1996

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1996-01-01

    This report contains the 1996 annual progress reports of the research fellows and students supported by the Center for Turbulence Research. Last year, CTR hosted twelve resident Postdoctoral Fellows, three Research Associates, four Senior Research Fellows, and supported one doctoral student and ten short term visitors.

  6. TACSCE Research Annual 1991.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lesko, Silvia Jo

    1991-01-01

    This annual contains the paper that won the 1991 President's Award of the Texas Association for Community Service and Continuing Education (TACSCE) as well as the runner-up paper and other articles. An editorial, "Learning to Crawl" (Silvia Lesko), focuses on the editor's "discovery" of the adult learner. "Ethics and…

  7. NERSC Annual Report 2005

    SciTech Connect

    Hules , John

    2006-07-31

    The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) is the premier computational resource for scientific research funded by the DOE Office of Science. The Annual Report includes summaries of recent significant and representative computational science projects conducted on NERSC systems as well as information about NERSC's current and planned systems and services.

  8. Carolinas Communication Annual, 1998.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McLennan, David B.

    1998-01-01

    This 1998 issue of "Carolinas Communication Annual" contains the following articles: "Give Me That Old Time Religion?: A Study of Religious Themes in the Rhetoric of the Ku Klux Klan" (John S. Seiter); "The Three Stooges versus the Third Reich" (Roy Schwartzman); "Interdisciplinary Team Teaching: Implementing…

  9. UNICEF Annual Report, 1994.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This annual report for the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) describes the programs and services provided by this organization in 1993. Following an introduction by UNICEF's executive director, the report reviews regional developments in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Latin…

  10. Folklife Annual, 1987.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jabbour, Alan, Ed.; Hardin, James, Ed.

    This annual publication is intended to promote the documentation and study of the folklife of the United States, to share the traditions, values, and activities of U.S. folk culture, and to serve as a national forum for the discussion of ideas and issues in folklore and folklife. The articles in this collection are: (1) "Eating in the Belly…

  11. NERSC Annual Report 2004

    SciTech Connect

    Hules, John; Bashor, Jon; Yarris, Lynn; McCullough, Julie; Preuss, Paul; Bethel, Wes

    2005-04-15

    The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) is the premier computational resource for scientific research funded by the DOE Office of Science. The Annual Report includes summaries of recent significant and representative computational science projects conducted on NERSC systems as well as information about NERSC's current and planned systems and services.

  12. Ultrasound Annual, 1984

    SciTech Connect

    Sanders, R.C.; Hill, M.C.

    1984-01-01

    The 1984 edition of Ultrasound Annual explores new applications of ultrasound in speech and swallowing and offers guidelines on the use of ultrasound and nuclear medicine in thyroid and biliary tract disease. Other areas covered include Doppler sonography of the abdomen, intraoperative abdominal ultrasound, sonography of the placenta, ultrasound of the neonatal head and abdomen, and sonographic echo patterns created by fat.

  13. NRCC annual report, 1979

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-11-01

    This annual report of the National Research for Computation in Chemistry (NRCC) Division describes the program of research workshops, software development, and scientific research of the Division in 1979. This year marked the first full calendar year of activity of the Division. Initial staffing in the core scientific areas was completed by the addition of a crystallographer.

  14. UNICEF Annual Report, 1993.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This annual report for the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) details the programs and services provided by this organization in 1992-93. Following an introduction by UNICEF's executive director, the report briefly reviews UNICEF activities for 1992, then describes specific projects in the following areas: (1) child survival and development;…

  15. UNICEF Annual Report 1983.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    In introducing this annual report, the executive director of UNICEF delineates the four techniques for primary health care and basic services reported in the publication "State of the World's Children, 1982-1983." The ensuing review of UNICEF's activities illustrates highlights of the year's program cooperation, including trends and key…

  16. Annual Report, FY 1978.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maryland State Board for Community Colleges, Annapolis.

    This annual report from the Maryland State Board for Community Colleges outlines information on enrollment, instructional programs, finance, capital construction, the state master plan, legislation, and the Vocational Education Acts Grant for fiscal year 1978. The report reveals that the 1977 opening fall credit enrollment for Maryland community…

  17. Annual Income Tax Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keener, Sandra C.

    1992-01-01

    This annual guide to income tax for parents of children with disabilities covers organizing records; avoiding audits; deducting medical expenses; and considering the impact of recent changes in medical expenses, Social Security numbers for children, child care, earned income credit, and deduction for dependents. (DB)

  18. NERSC Annual Report 2002

    SciTech Connect

    Hules, John

    2003-01-31

    The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) is the primary computational resource for scientific research funded by the DOE Office of Science. The Annual Report for FY2002 includes a summary of recent computational science conducted on NERSC systems (with abstracts of significant and representative projects), and information about NERSC's current and planned systems and service

  19. Annual Conference Abstracts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Journal of Engineering Education, 1972

    1972-01-01

    Includes abstracts of papers presented at the 80th Annual Conference of the American Society for Engineering Education. The broad areas include aerospace, affiliate and associate member council, agricultural engineering, biomedical engineering, continuing engineering studies, chemical engineering, civil engineering, computers, cooperative…

  20. OMS 1987 Annual Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Association of Research Libraries, Washington, DC. Office of Management Studies.

    Designed to serve both as an activity report on Office of Management Studies (OMS) progress during 1987 and a catalog of OMS services and products, this annual report focuses on the management of technology in a scholarly environment. Programs and services are reported in five sections: (1) Applied Research and Development (the Institute on…

  1. Annual Conference Abstracts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Journal of Engineering Education, 1972

    1972-01-01

    Includes abstracts of papers presented at the 80th Annual Conference of the American Society for Engineering Education. The broad areas include aerospace, affiliate and associate member council, agricultural engineering, biomedical engineering, continuing engineering studies, chemical engineering, civil engineering, computers, cooperative…

  2. 2010 AAUW Annual Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    American Association of University Women, 2010

    2010-01-01

    This report highlights some of the outstanding accomplishments of AAUW (American Association of University Women) for fiscal year 2010. This year's annual report also features stories of remarkable women who are leading the charge to break through barriers and ensure that all women have a fair chance. Sharon is working to reduce the pay gap…

  3. UNICEF Annual Report, 1994.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This annual report for the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) describes the programs and services provided by this organization in 1993. Following an introduction by UNICEF's executive director, the report reviews regional developments in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Latin…

  4. International Energy Annual, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-01-14

    This report is prepared annually and presents the latest information and trends on world energy production and consumption for petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity. Trade and reserves are shown for petroleum, natural gas, and coal. Prices are included for selected petroleum products. Production and consumption data are reported in standard units as well as British thermal units (Btu) and joules.

  5. Annual Coal Distribution

    EIA Publications

    2016-01-01

    The Annual Coal Distribution Report (ACDR) provides detailed information on domestic coal distribution by origin state, destination state, consumer category, and method of transportation. Also provided is a summary of foreign coal distribution by coal-producing state. All data for the report year are final and this report supersedes all data in the quarterly distribution reports.

  6. Grassroots. Annual Report 1993.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grassroots Educare Trust, Gatesville (South Africa).

    This annual report describes the programs and staff for 1993 of Grassroots Educare Trust, an organization that helps South African communities provide preschool education and health care. Contents of the report are: (1) a list of the board of trustees; (2) a message from the chairman; (3) the director's report on external efforts and internal…

  7. Annual Conference Abstracts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Engineering Education, 1976

    1976-01-01

    Presents the abstracts of 158 papers presented at the American Society for Engineering Education's annual conference at Knoxville, Tennessee, June 14-17, 1976. Included are engineering topics covering education, aerospace, agriculture, biomedicine, chemistry, computers, electricity, acoustics, environment, mechanics, and women. (SL)

  8. NUFFIC Annual Report, 1977.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Netherlands Universities Foundation for International Co-operation, The Hague.

    The 1977 annual report of the Netherlands Universities Foundation for International Cooperation (NUFFIC) considers the following topics: major developments in work and policy; relationships NUFFIC has with other organizations; University Development Cooperation; developments in international education; the functioning of the Consultative Structure…

  9. UNICEF Annual Report. 1984.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This annual report reviews the work UNICEF has been doing to help transform the "Child Survival Revolution" from a dream into a reality. Discussion focuses primarily on child health and nutrition and other basic services for children. Throughout, the review is supplemented with profiles of program initiatives made to improve the…

  10. UNICEF Annual Report 1983.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    In introducing this annual report, the executive director of UNICEF delineates the four techniques for primary health care and basic services reported in the publication "State of the World's Children, 1982-1983." The ensuing review of UNICEF's activities illustrates highlights of the year's program cooperation, including trends and key…

  11. UNICEF Annual Report. 1984.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This annual report reviews the work UNICEF has been doing to help transform the "Child Survival Revolution" from a dream into a reality. Discussion focuses primarily on child health and nutrition and other basic services for children. Throughout, the review is supplemented with profiles of program initiatives made to improve the…

  12. UNICEF Annual Report, 1996.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    At this time, the United Nations Children Fund (UNICEF) is commemorating its 50th anniversary, under the slogan "children first." This annual UNICEF report reviews the organization's activities during 1995. An introduction by the executive director states that the report will give readers a sense of what UNICEF is doing with partners to…

  13. Carolinas Communication Annual, 1999.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McLennan, David B.

    1999-01-01

    This 1999 issue of the "Carolinas Communication Annual" contains the following articles: "The Unmade Analogy: Alcohol and Abortion" (Richard W. Leeman); "Say, You Want a Revolution" (Roy Schwartzman and Constance Y. Green); "Exploring the Relationship between Perceived Narrativity and Persuasiveness"…

  14. ASE Annual Conference 2010

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCune, Roger

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the author describes the ASE Annual Conference 2010 which was held at Nottingham after a gap of 22 years. As always, the main conference was preceded by International Day, an important event for science educators from across the world. There were two strands to the programme: (1) "What works for me?"--sharing new ideas…

  15. Uranium industry annual 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1999-04-22

    The Uranium Industry Annual 1998 (UIA 1998) provides current statistical data on the US uranium industry`s activities relating to uranium raw materials and uranium marketing. It contains data for the period 1989 through 2008 as collected on the Form EIA-858, ``Uranium Industry Annual Survey.`` Data provides a comprehensive statistical characterization of the industry`s activities for the survey year and also include some information about industry`s plans and commitments for the near-term future. Data on uranium raw materials activities for 1989 through 1998, including exploration activities and expenditures, EIA-estimated reserves, mine production of uranium, production of uranium concentrate, and industry employment, are presented in Chapter 1. Data on uranium marketing activities for 1994 through 2008, including purchases of uranium and enrichment services, enrichment feed deliveries, uranium fuel assemblies, filled and unfilled market requirements, and uranium inventories, are shown in Chapter 2. The methodology used in the 1998 survey, including data edit and analysis, is described in Appendix A. The methodologies for estimation of resources and reserves are described in Appendix B. A list of respondents to the ``Uranium Industry Annual Survey`` is provided in Appendix C. The Form EIA-858 ``Uranium Industry Annual Survey`` is shown in Appendix D. For the readers convenience, metric versions of selected tables from Chapters 1 and 2 are presented in Appendix E along with the standard conversion factors used. A glossary of technical terms is at the end of the report. 24 figs., 56 tabs.

  16. Magnetic Resonance Annual, 1985

    SciTech Connect

    Kressel, H.Y.

    1985-01-01

    The inaugural volume of Magnetic Resonance Annual includes reviews of MRI of the posterior fossa, cerebral neoplasms, and the cardiovascular and genitourinary systems. A chapter on contrast materials outlines the mechanisms of paramagnetic contrast enhancement and highlights several promising contrast agents.

  17. Annual statistical downscaling of precipitation and evaporation and monthly disaggregation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sachindra, D. A.; Perera, B. J. C.

    2016-10-01

    Development of downscaling models for each calendar month using the data of predictors specifically selected for each calendar month may assists in better capturing the time-varying nature of the predictor-predictand relationships. Such approach will not allow the explicit modelling of the persistence of the predictand (e.g. lag-1 correlation). However, downscaling at an annual time step and subsequent disaggregation to monthly values can explicitly consider the modelling of the persistence of the predictand. This study investigated the potential of annual downscaling of a predictand and subsequent disaggregation of annual values to monthly values, in comparison to the potential of downscaling models separately developed for each calendar month. In the case study, annual and monthly downscaling models were developed for precipitation and evaporation at two stations located in Victoria, Australia. The output of the annual downscaling models was then disaggregated into monthly values using four different methods based on the method of fragments. It was found that the annual to monthly disaggregation methods and monthly downscaling models are able to reproduce the average of monthly observations with relatively higher accuracy in comparison to their ability in reproducing standard deviation, skewness and lag-1 serial correlation. Downscaling models separately developed for each calendar month were able to show relatively smaller root mean square errors for their time series indicating better overall agreement with observations in comparison to their counterpart annual to monthly disaggregation methods. Furthermore, it was found that not only the bias in the output of an annual downscaling model but also the presence of annual totals in the records of observations of a predictand that are very similar in magnitude, but having significantly different sets of fragments, can largely contribute to the poor performance of an annual to monthly disaggregation method.

  18. Fundamental quantitative analysis of microbial activity in aquifer bioreclamation; and Modeling the transport of biologically and chemically reactive solutes in a two-dimensional, heterogeneous intermediate scale system. Semi-annual progress report, August 1991--March 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Rittmann, B.E.; Valocchi, A.J.; Baveye, P.

    1992-12-31

    This report is the semi-annual progress report for the second half of the third year. The project has four primary areas: (1) biodegradation of poorly soluble organic contaminants; (2) dual-limitation kinetics of electron donors and acceptors; (3) two-dimensional modeling of biofilm reactions in nonhomogeneous porous media; and (4) biologically induced clogging in porous media. For each area, this report presents a brief summary of the previous progress, as well as reporting this period`s progress. In addition plans for future work are included.

  19. LLNL NESHAPs 1996 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, G.M.

    1997-01-06

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) 40 CFR Part 61, Subpart H; Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (10 microsieverts) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from 1996 operations were (1) Livermore site: 0. 093 mrem (0.93 microsievert) (52% from point-source emissions, 48% from diffuse-source emissions); (2) Site 300: 0.033 mrem (0.33 microsievert) (99% from point-source, 1% from diffuse-source emissions). The EDEs were generally calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air-dispersion/dose-assessment model. Site-specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide inventory data or continuous-monitoring systems data were the specific input to CAP88-PC for each modeled source. 5 figs., 8 tabs.

  20. Supplement to the annual energy outlook 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1995-02-01

    This section of the Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 present the major assumptions of the modeling system used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (AEO95). In this context, assumptions include general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports listed in Appendix B. A synopsis of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented. The NEMS is developed and maintained by the office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projection of domestic energy-economy markets in the midterm time period and perform policy analyses requested by various government agencies and the private sector.

  1. Inter-annual variability of dissolved inorganic nitrogen in the Biobío River, Central Chile: an analysis base on a decadal database along with 1-D reactive transport modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yévenes, M.; Figueroa, R.; Parra, O.; Farías, L.

    2015-01-01

    Rivers may act as important sinks (filters) or sources for inorganic nutrients between the land and the sea, depending on the biogeochemical processes and nutrient inputs along the river. This study examines the inter-annual variability of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) seasonal (wet-dry) cycle for the Biobío River, one of the largest and most industrialized rivers of Central Chile (36°45'-38°49' S and 71°00'-73°20' W). Long-term water flow (1990-2012) and water quality datasets (2004-2012) were used along with a one-dimensional reactive transport ecosystem model to evaluate the effects of water flow and N inputs on seasonal pattern of DIN. From 2004 to 2012, annual average nitrate levels significantly increased from 1.73 ± 2.17 μmol L-1 (upstream of the river) to 18.4 ± 12.7 μmol L-1 (in the river mouth); while the annual average oxygen concentration decreased from 348 ± 22 to 278 ± 42 μmol L-1 between upstream and downstream, indicating an additional oxygen consumption. Variability in the mid-section of the river (station BB8) was identified as a major influence on the inter-annual variability and appeared to be the site of a major anthropogenic disturbance. However, there was also an influence of climate on riverine DIN concentrations; high DIN production occurred during wet years, whereas high consumption proceeded during dry years. Extremely reduced river flow and drought during summer also strongly affected the annual DIN concentration, reducing the DIN production. Additionally, summer storm events during drought periods appeared to cause significant runoff resulting in nitrate inputs to the river. The total DIN input reaching the river mouth was 0.159 Gmol yr-1, implying that internal production exceeds consumption processes, and identifying nitrification as one of the predominant processes occurring in the estuary. In the following, the impact on the river of DIN increases as a nutrient source, as well as climate and biogeochemical factors

  2. Annual recertification: fun? Wow!

    PubMed

    Amos, A

    1994-01-01

    Learning is critical to fostering a knowledge base required for maintaining currency and furthering professional development. In the ever-changing field of nephrology, most skills practised in nursing are considered to be sanctioned medical acts or added nursing skills. Therefore, annual recertification of the skills designated as sanctioned medical acts is an expectation of the College of Nurses of Ontario. The Wellesley Hospital policy indicates one time only or annual approval of the added nursing skills. The article will discuss the use of games as a creative, non-threatening educational tool in the recertification/re-approval process currently in place at The Wellesley Hospital, renal programs. In the past two years, several games or alternative teaching strategies have been utilized to assist the staff in preparing for recertification. This paper will examine the advantages and disadvantages of utilizing alternative teaching formats. Commentary regarding the response of staff nurses, nursing management and education will be highlighted.

  3. Annual Energy Review 2007

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2008-06-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are data on total energy production, consumption, and trade; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, international energy, as well as financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversion tables. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....”

  4. Coal industry annual 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1998-12-01

    Coal Industry Annual 1997 provides comprehensive information about US coal production, number of mines, prices, productivity, employment, productive capacity, and recoverable reserves. US Coal production for 1997 and previous years is based on the annual survey EIA-7A, Coal Production Report. This report presents data on coal consumption, coal distribution, coal stocks, coal prices, and coal quality for Congress, Federal and State agencies, the coal industry, and the general public. Appendix A contains a compilation of coal statistics for the major coal-producing States. This report includes a national total coal consumption for nonutility power producers that are not in the manufacturing, agriculture, mining, construction, or commercial sectors. 14 figs., 145 tabs.

  5. Renewable energy annual 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-01

    The Renewable Energy Annual 1995 is the first in an expected series of annual reports the Energy Information Administration (EIA) intends to publish to provide a comprehensive assessment of renewable energy. This report presents the following information on the history, status, and prospects of renewable energy data: estimates of renewable resources; characterizations of renewable energy technologies; descriptions of industry infrastructures for individual technologies; evaluations of current market status; and assessments of near-term prospects for market growth. An international section is included, as well as two feature articles that discuss issues of importance for renewable energy as a whole. The report also contains a number of technical appendices and a glossary. The renewable energy sources included are biomass (wood), municipal solid waste, biomass-derived liquid fuels, geothermal, wind, and solar and photovoltaic.

  6. International energy annual 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1999-04-01

    The International Energy Annual presents an overview of key international energy trends for production, consumption, imports, and exports of primary energy commodities in over 220 countries, dependencies, and areas of special sovereignty. Also included are population and gross domestic product data, as well as prices for crude oil and petroleum products in selected countries. Renewable energy reported in the International Energy Annual includes hydroelectric power and geothermal, solar, and wind electric power. Also included are biomass electric power for Brazil and the US, and biomass, geothermal, and solar energy produced in the US and not used for electricity generation. This report is published to keep the public and other interested parties fully informed of primary energy supplies on a global basis. The data presented have been largely derived from published sources. The data have been converted to units of measurement and thermal values (Appendices E and F) familiar to the American public. 93 tabs.

  7. Petroleum marketing annual 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1995-08-24

    The Petroleum Marketing Annual (PMA) provides information and statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication presents statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysis, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the fob and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners` acquisition cost of crude oil. Refined petroleum product sales data include motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane. The Petroleum Marketing Division, Office of Oil and Gas, Energy Information Administration ensures the accuracy, quality, and confidentiality of the published data in the Petroleum Marketing Annual. For this production, all estimates have been recalculated since their earlier publication in the Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM). These calculations made use of additional data and corrections that were received after the PMM publication date.

  8. NSLS annual report 1984

    SciTech Connect

    Klaffky, R.; Thomlinson, W.

    1984-01-01

    The first comprehensive Annual Report of the National Synchrotron Light Source comes at a time of great activity and forward motion for the facility. In the following pages we outline the management changes that have taken place in the past year, the progress that has been made in the commissioning of the x-ray ring and in the enhanced utilization of the uv ring, together with an extensive discussion of the interesting scientific experiments that have been carried out.

  9. 2008 annual merit review

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    The 2008 DOE Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review was held February 25-28, 2008 in Bethesda, Maryland. The review encompassed all of the work done by the Vehicle Technologies Program: a total of 280 individual activities were reviewed, by a total of just over 100 reviewers. A total of 1,908 individual review responses were received for the technical reviews, and an additional 29 individual review responses were received for the plenary session review.

  10. Uranium industry annual 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1996-05-01

    The Uranium Industry Annual 1995 (UIA 1995) provides current statistical data on the U.S. uranium industry`s activities relating to uranium raw materials and uranium marketing. The UIA 1995 is prepared for use by the Congress, Federal and State agencies, the uranium and nuclear electric utility industries, and the public. It contains data for the period 1986 through 2005 as collected on the Form EIA-858, ``Uranium Industry Annual Survey``. Data collected on the ``Uranium Industry Annual Survey`` provide a comprehensive statistical characterization of the industry`s plans and commitments for the near-term future. Where aggregate data are presented in the UIA 1995, care has been taken to protect the confidentiality of company-specific information while still conveying accurate and complete statistical data. Data on uranium raw materials activities for 1986 through 1995 including exploration activities and expenditures, EIA-estimated reserves, mine production of uranium, production of uranium concentrate, and industry employment are presented in Chapter 1. Data on uranium marketing activities for 1994 through 2005, including purchases of uranium and enrichment services, enrichment feed deliveries, uranium fuel assemblies, filled and unfilled market requirements, uranium imports and exports, and uranium inventories are shown in Chapter 2. The methodology used in the 1995 survey, including data edit and analysis, is described in Appendix A. The methodologies for estimation of resources and reserves are described in Appendix B. A list of respondents to the ``Uranium Industry Annual Survey`` is provided in Appendix C. For the reader`s convenience, metric versions of selected tables from Chapters 1 and 2 are presented in Appendix D along with the standard conversion factors used. A glossary of technical terms is at the end of the report. 14 figs., 56 tabs.

  11. NERSC 2001 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Hules, John

    2001-12-12

    The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) is the primary computational resource for scientific research funded by the DOE Office of Science. The Annual Report for FY2001 includes a summary of recent computational science conducted on NERSC systems (with abstracts of significant and representative projects); information about NERSC's current systems and services; descriptions of Berkeley Lab's current research and development projects in applied mathematics, computer science, and computational science; and a brief summary of NERSC's Strategic Plan for 2002-2005.

  12. NERSC 1998 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Hules, John

    1999-03-01

    This 1998 annual report from the National Scientific Energy Research Computing Center (NERSC) presents the year in review of the following categories: Computational Science; Computer Science and Applied Mathematics; and Systems and Services. Also presented are science highlights in the following categories: Basic Energy Sciences; Biological and Environmental Research; Fusion Energy Sciences; High Energy and Nuclear Physics; and Advanced Scientific Computing Research and Other Projects.

  13. Annual Report 1984.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-01-01

    quality activities, and coordinating activities with other Federal and non-Federal basin interests groups. - , DD Fo’N, 1473 EDITION Ort NOV6S IS...Sod•’ I TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONTINUED) PAGE SECTION VII- RESERVOIR DATA SUMMARY 1. SWD MAP 2. INDEX BY BASINS 3. INDEX IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 4. DATA...TABLES SECTION VIII - MINUTES OF THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN INTERESTS GROUP AND THE ANNUAL SWD WATER MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MEETING 1. TRINITY RIVER BASIN

  14. Estimating annual bole biomass production using uncertainty analysis

    Treesearch

    Travis J. Woolley; Mark E. Harmon; Kari B. O' Connell

    2007-01-01

    Two common sampling methodologies coupled with a simple statistical model were evaluated to determine the accuracy and precision of annual bole biomass production (BBP) and inter-annual variability estimates using this type of approach. We performed an uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with radial growth core data from trees in three Douglas...

  15. Uranium industry annual 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1995-07-05

    The Uranium Industry Annual 1994 (UIA 1994) provides current statistical data on the US uranium industry`s activities relating to uranium raw materials and uranium marketing during that survey year. The UIA 1994 is prepared for use by the Congress, Federal and State agencies, the uranium and nuclear electric utility industries, and the public. It contains data for the 10-year period 1985 through 1994 as collected on the Form EIA-858, ``Uranium Industry Annual Survey.`` Data collected on the ``Uranium Industry Annual Survey`` (UIAS) provide a comprehensive statistical characterization of the industry`s activities for the survey year and also include some information about industry`s plans and commitments for the near-term future. Where aggregate data are presented in the UIA 1994, care has been taken to protect the confidentiality of company-specific information while still conveying accurate and complete statistical data. A feature article, ``Comparison of Uranium Mill Tailings Reclamation in the United States and Canada,`` is included in the UIA 1994. Data on uranium raw materials activities including exploration activities and expenditures, EIA-estimated resources and reserves, mine production of uranium, production of uranium concentrate, and industry employment are presented in Chapter 1. Data on uranium marketing activities, including purchases of uranium and enrichment services, and uranium inventories, enrichment feed deliveries (actual and projected), and unfilled market requirements are shown in Chapter 2.

  16. Seed dispersal of desert annuals.

    PubMed

    Venable, D Lawrence; Flores-Martinez, Arturo; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Barron-Gafford, Greg; Becerra, Judith X

    2008-08-01

    We quantified seed dispersal in a guild of Sonoran Desert winter desert annuals at a protected natural field site in Tucson, Arizona, USA. Seed production was suppressed under shrub canopies, in the open areas between shrubs, or both by applying an herbicide prior to seed set in large, randomly assigned removal plots (10-30 m diameter). Seedlings were censused along transects crossing the reproductive suppression borders shortly after germination. Dispersal kernels were estimated for Pectocarya recurvata and Schismus barbatus from the change in seedling densities with distance from these borders via inverse modeling. Estimated dispersal distances were short, with most seeds traveling less than a meter. The adhesive seeds of P. recurvata went farther than the small S. barbatus seeds, which have no obvious dispersal adaptation. Seeds dispersed farther downslope than upslope and farther when dispersing into open areas than when dispersing into shrubs. Dispersal distances were short relative to the pattern of spatial heterogeneity created by the shrub and open space mosaic. This suggests that dispersal could contribute to local population buildup, possibly facilitating species coexistence. Overall, these results support the hypothesis that escape in time via delayed germination is likely to be more important for desert annuals than escape in space.

  17. LLNL NESHAPs 1998 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Berger, R L; Bertoldo, N A; Biermann, A H; Gallegos, G; Hall, L C; Harrach, R J; Surano, K A

    1999-06-14

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) 40 CFR Part 61, Subpart H; Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 {micro}Sv) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from 1998 operations are summarized here. (1) Livermore site: 0.055 mrem (0.55 {micro}Sv) (57% from point-source emissions, 43% from diffuse-source emissions). The point-source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX and is used for compliance purposes. LLNL believes a more realistic dose for the Livermore site is 0.049 mrem (0.49 {micro}Sv) (52% from point-source emissions, 48% from diffuse-source emissions). This dose is based on an assessment that represents a more realistic behavior of tritium gas in the environment. (2) Site 300: 0.024 mrem (0.24 {micro}Sv) (78% from point-source emissions, 22% from diffuse-source emissions). The EDEs were generally calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air-dispersion/dose-assessment model. Site-specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide inventory data or continuous-monitoring systems data were the specific input to CAP88-PC for each modeled source.

  18. Engineering Annual Summary 1998

    SciTech Connect

    Dimolitsas, S

    1999-05-01

    Unlike most research and development laboratories, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is responsible for delivering production-ready designs. Unlike most industry, LLNL is responsible for R and D that must significantly increase the nation's security. This rare combination of production engineering expertise and national R and D agenda identifies LLNL as one of the few organizations today that conducts cutting-edge engineering on grand-scale problems, while facing enormous technical risk and undergoing diligent scrutiny of its budget, schedule, and performance. On the grand scale, cutting-edge technologies are emerging from our recent ventures into ''Xtreme Engineering{trademark}.'' Basically, we must integrate and extend technologies concurrently and then push them to their extreme, such as building very large structures but aligning them with extreme precision. As we extend these technologies, we push the boundaries of engineering capabilities at both poles: microscale and ultrascale. Today, in the ultrascale realm, we are building NIF, the world's largest laser, which demands one of the world's most complex operating systems with 9000 motors integrated through over 500 computers to control 60,000 points for every laser shot. On the other pole, we have fabricated the world's smallest surgical tools and the smallest instruments for detecting biological and chemical agents used by antiterrorists. Later in this Annual Summary, we highlight some of our recent innovations in the area of Xtreme Engineering, including large-scale computer simulations of massive structures such as major bridges to prepare retrofitting designs to withstand earthquakes. Another feature is our conceptual breakthrough in developing the world's fastest airplane, HyperSoar, which can reach anywhere in the planet in two hours at speeds of 6700 mph. In the last few years, Engineering has significantly pushed the technology in structural mechanics and micro-instrumentation. For example

  19. Estimation of the distribution of annual runoff from climatic variables using copulas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiong, Lihua; Yu, Kun-xia; Gottschalk, Lars

    2014-09-01

    An approach of deriving the annual runoff distribution using copulas from an annual rainfall-runoff model is proposed to provide an alternative annual runoff frequency analysis method in case of changing climatic variables. The annual rainfall-runoff model is established on the basis of the Budyko formula to estimate annual runoff, with annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as input variables. The model contains one single parameter k that guarantees that annual water balance is satisfied. In the derivation of the annual runoff distribution, annual precipitation, annual potential evapotranspiration, and parameter k are treated as three random variables, while the annual runoff distribution is obtained by integrating the joint probability density function of the three random variables over the domain constrained by the annual rainfall-runoff model using the canonical vine copula. This copula-based derivation approach is tested for 40 watersheds in two large basins in China. The estimated annual runoff distribution performs well in most watersheds. The performance is mainly related to the accuracy of the marginal distribution of precipitation. The copula-based derivation approach can also be used in ungauged watersheds where the distribution of k at the local site is estimated from the regional information of the k variable, and it also has acceptable performance in most watersheds, while poor performance is observed in a few watersheds with low accuracy in the Budyko formula.

  20. The Annual Retrograde Nutation Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gattano, C.; Lambert, S.; Bizouard, C.

    2016-12-01

    Very Long Baseline Interferometry is the only technique that can estimate Earth nutations with an accuracy under the milliarcsecond level. With 35 years of geodetic VLBI observations, the principal nutation terms caused by luni-solar tides and geophysical response have been estimated. We focus on the variability. Two of them present very significant amplitude and phase variations: the retrograde Free Core Nutation (FCN) with a period of around 430 days and the Annual Retrograde Nutation (ARN). Despite progress made in global circulation models, the atmospheric and ocean excitation cannot account for that. In particular the ARN shows an amplitude modulation of approximately six years, reminiscent of the six-year geomagnetic oscillation in the Length-of-Day (LOD). As to the latter, we suggest that the nutation term variability may have deep Earth causes, and we estimate an order of magnitude of Earth internal structure parameters to explain this variability.

  1. NPL 1999 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    2000-01-01

    OAK-B135 NPL 1999 Annual Report. The Nuclear Physics Laboratory at the University of Washington in Seattle pursues a broad program of nuclear physics research. Research activities are conducted locally and at remote sites. The current program includes ''in-house'' research on nuclear collisions using the local tandem Van de Graaff and superconducting linac accelerators as well as local and remote non-accelerator research on fundamental symmetries and weak interactions and user-mode research on relativistic heavy ions at large accelerator facilities around the world.

  2. International energy annual 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-01

    The International Energy Annual presents information and trends on world energy production and consumption for petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity. Production and consumption data are reported in standard units as well as British thermal units (Btu). Trade and reserves are shown for petroleum, natural gas, and coal. Data are provided on crude oil refining capacity and electricity installed capacity by type. Prices are included for selected crude oils and for refined petroleum products in selected countries. Population and Gross Domestic Product data are also provided.

  3. Annual Energy Review 2010

    SciTech Connect

    2011-10-01

    This twenty-ninth edition of the Annual Energy Review (AER) presents the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most comprehensive look at integrated energy statistics. The summary statistics on the Nation’s energy production, consumption, trade, stocks, and prices cover all major energy commodities and all energy-consuming sectors of the U.S. economy from 1949 through 2010. The AER is EIA’s historical record of energy statistics and, because the coverage spans six decades, the statistics in this report are well-suited to long-term trend analysis.

  4. Annual Energy Review 2001

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2002-11-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is a statistical history of energy activities in the United States. It documents trends and milestones in U.S. energy production, trade, storage, pricing, and consumption. Each new year of data that is added to the time series—which now reach into 7 decades—extends the story of how Americans have acquired and used energy. It is a story of continual change as the Nation's economy grew, energy requirements expanded, resource availability shifted, and interdependencies developed among nations.

  5. Annual report to Congress

    SciTech Connect

    1992-03-01

    This is the eighth annual report submitted by the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) to Congress. It covers activities and expenditures during Fiscal Year 1991, which ended September 30, 1991. Chapter 1 of this report describes OCRWM`s mission and objectives. Chapters 2 through 8 cover the following topics: earning public trust and confidence; geological disposal; monitored retrieval storage; transportation; systems integration and regulatory compliance; international programs; and program management. Financial statements for the Nuclear Waste Fund are presented in Chapter 9.

  6. Ultrasound Annual, 1983

    SciTech Connect

    Sanders, R.C.; Hill, M.C.

    1983-01-01

    The 1983 edition of Ultrasound Annual features a state-of-the-art assessment of real-time ultrasound technology and a look at improvements in real-time equipment. Chapters discuss important new obstetric applications of ultrasound in measuring fetal umbilical vein blood flow and monitoring ovarian follicular development in vivo and in vitro fertilization. Other topics covered include transrectal prostate ultrasound using a linear array system; ultrasound of the common bile duct; ultrasound in tropical diseases; prenatal diagnosis of craniospinal anomalies; scrotal ultrasonography; opthalmic ultrasonography; and sonography of the upper abdominal venous system.

  7. Nuclear medicine annual, 1987

    SciTech Connect

    Freeman, L.M.; Weissmann, H.S.

    1987-01-01

    Radionuclide evaluation of brain death, bone imaging with SPECT, and lymphoscintigraphy are among the topics covered in Nuclear Medicine Annual, 1987. In addition, the book includes reviews of the role of nuclear medicine in the diagnosis of the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and in the management of patients with acute myocardial infarction. Reports describe advances in radionuclide and magnetic resonance imaging of the adrenal gland and assess the current status of diuretic renography. Also included are articles on changes in functional imaging with aging, on radionuclide evaluation of the lower genitourinary tract in children, and on cholescintigraphy in children.

  8. Renewable energy annual 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1997-03-01

    This report presents summary data on renewable energy consumption, the status of each of the primary renewable technologies, a profile of each of the associated industries, an analysis of topical issues related to renewable energy, and information on renewable energy projects worldwide. It is the second in a series of annual reports on renewable energy. The renewable energy resources included in the report are biomass (wood and ethanol); municipal solid waste, including waste-to-energy and landfill gas; geothermal; wind; and solar energy, including solar thermal and photovoltaic. The report also includes various appendices and a glossary.

  9. Annual Progress Report.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-10-20

    AD-AIO6 983 ILLINOIS UNIV AT URBANA COORDINATEO SCIENCE LAB F/0 12/1 ANNUAL PROGRESS REPOMT ,(U1 OCT 81 H V POOR NOOOII-81-K-O014 UNCLASSIFIED T-111...34 University of Illinois at Urbana -Chaimpaign Urbana , Illinois 61801 I ~~ ~ ~ ~ I I7 CONROLINOFIC______NDADDES Office of Naval Research - Octe--mm...Unclassified Approved for public release; dis tribu tion ’anlimi ted. 17. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of the aboeet onfored a Weak 20. 1# Offrmoaw Repeol

  10. Nuclear Medicine Annual, 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Freeman, L.M.; Weissmann, H.S.

    1989-01-01

    Among the highlights of Nuclear Medicine Annual, 1989 are a status report on the thyroid scan in clinical practice, a review of functional and structural brain imaging in dementia, an update on radionuclide renal imaging in children, and an article outlining a quality assurance program for SPECT instrumentation. Also included are discussions on current concepts in osseous sports and stress injury scintigraphy and on correlative magnetic resonance and radionuclide imaging of bone. Other contributors assess the role of nuclear medicine in clinical decision making and examine medicolegal and regulatory aspects of nuclear medicine.

  11. Annual Research Briefs - 2006

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-12-01

    a round liq- uid jet by a coaxial flow of gas. D. KIM, 0. DESJARDINS, MI. HERRMANN AND P. MOIN 185 Stable and high-order accurate finite difference...Research 185 Annual Research Briefs 2006 Toward two-phase simulation of the primary breakup of a round liquid jet by a coaxial flow of gas By D. Kim, 0...gas phase. The flow solver volume fraction i) is defined as The breakup of a round liquid jet by a coaxial flow of gas 187 Vi = ’ H(G)dV, (2.9) where

  12. Quantification and attribution of errors in the simulated annual gross primary production and latent heat fluxes by two global land surface models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jianduo; Wang, Ying-Ping; Duan, Qingyun; Lu, Xingjie; Pak, Bernard; Wiltshire, Andy; Robertson, Eddy; Ziehn, Tilo

    2016-09-01

    Differences in the predicted carbon and water fluxes by different global land models have been quite large and have not decreased over the last two decades. Quantification and attribution of the uncertainties of global land surface models are important for improving the performance of global land surface models, and are the foci of this study. Here we quantified the model errors by comparing the simulated monthly global gross primary productivity (GPP) and latent heat flux (LE) by two global land surface models with the model-data products of global GPP and LE from 1982 to 2005. By analyzing model parameter sensitivities within their ranges, we identified about 2-11 most sensitive model parameters that have strong influences on the simulated GPP or LE by two global land models, and found that the sensitivities of the same parameters are different among the plant functional types (PFT). Using parameter ensemble simulations, we found that 15%-60% of the model errors were reduced by tuning only a few (<4) most sensitive parameters for most PFTs, and that the reduction in model errors varied spatially within a PFT or among different PFTs. Our study shows that future model improvement should optimize key model parameters, particularly those parameters relating to leaf area index, maximum carboxylation rate, and stomatal conductance.

  13. A case study of cost-efficient staffing under annualized hours.

    PubMed

    van der Veen, Egbert; Hans, Erwin W; Veltman, Bart; Berrevoets, Leo M; Berden, Hubert J J M

    2015-09-01

    We propose a mathematical programming formulation that incorporates annualized hours and shows to be very flexible with regard to modeling various contract types. The objective of our model is to minimize salary cost, thereby covering workforce demand, and using annualized hours. Our model is able to address various business questions regarding tactical workforce planning problems, e.g., with regard to annualized hours, subcontracting, and vacation planning. In a case study for a Dutch hospital two of these business questions are addressed, and we demonstrate that applying annualized hours potentially saves up to 5.2% in personnel wages annually.

  14. Daily Inter-Annual Simulations of SST and MLD using Atmospherically Forced OGCMs: Model Evaluation in Comparison to Buoy Time Series

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-01-30

    verification procedure for analyzing embedded in the dynamical model (Wallcraft et al., the model output is specifically designed for application 2003; Kara...8217E to navy.mil/nmld/nmld.html. 77.21°W. All models have 6 dynamical layers plus the The net surface heat flux that has been absorbed (or mixed layer...unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT A systematic methodology for model-data comparisons of sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer

  15. Climate response and spatial-temporal model on the inter-annual change of winter temperature-salinity in the East China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Jin-kun; Miao, Qing-sheng; Yang, Yang; Xu, Shan-shan

    2017-01-01

    Spatial distributions and time variation characteristics were analyzed using Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) and spectrum analysis methods using surface and bottom temperature and salinity data in February of 1976-2013 along 30°N section in the East China Sea. Result showed that temperature trends can be divided into western part and east part, salinity trend divided into western, middle and eastern part. The first mode of surface temperature presented a quasi-equilibrium trend and the range was higher in the near-shore than the offshores, first mode of bottom temperature presented a decreasing trend; surface salinity had a decreasing trend and the extent was higher in the near-shore than the offshores, the bottom salinity showed a decreasing trend in recent years. The temperature inter-annual variability related to El Niño closely; short-term shocks of salinity related to El Niño, and long-term changes had something to do with PDO.

  16. Annual Energy Review 2004

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2005-08-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are data on total energy production, consumption, and trade; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, international energy, as well as financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversion tables. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding data series in the AER and in other EIA publications.

  17. Annual Energy Review 2011

    SciTech Connect

    Fichman, Barbara T.

    2012-09-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are statistics on total energy production, consumption, trade, and energy prices; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, and renewable energy; financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversions. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding the content of the AER and other EIA publications.

  18. Annual Energy Review 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-07-14

    This twelfth edition of the Annual Energy Review (AER) presents the Energy Information Administration`s historical energy statistics. For most series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 1993. Because coverage spans four and a half decades, the statistics in this report are well-suited to long-term trend analyses. The AER is comprehensive. It covers all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices, for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels and electricity. The AER also presents Energy Information Administration (EIA) statistics on some renewable energy sources. EIA estimates that its consumption series include about half of the renewable energy used in the United States. For a more complete discussion of EIA`s renewables data, see p. xix, ``Introducing Expanded Coverage of Renewable Energy Data Into the Historical Consumption Series.`` Copies of the 1993 edition of the Annual Energy Review may be obtained by using the order form in the back of this publication. Most of the data in the 1993 edition also are available on personal computer diskette. For more information about the diskettes, see the back of this publication. In addition, the data are available as part of the National Economic, Social, and Environmental Data Bank on a CD-ROM. For more information about the data bank, contact the US Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration, on 202-482-1986.

  19. Annual Energy Review 2006

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2007-06-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are data on total energy production, consumption, and trade; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, international energy, as well as financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversion tables. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding data series in the AER and in other EIA publications.

  20. Annual Energy Review 2005

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2006-07-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are data on total energy production, consumption, and trade; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, international energy, as well as financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversion tables. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding data series in the AER and in other EIA publications.

  1. Annual Energy Review 2009

    SciTech Connect

    Fichman, Barbara T.

    2010-08-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are statistics on total energy production, consumption, trade, and energy prices; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and international energy; financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversions. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding the content of the AER and other EIA publications.

  2. Electric power annual 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-01-06

    The Electric Power Annual presents a summary of electric utility statistics at national, regional and State levels. The objective of the publication is to provide industry decisionmakers, government policymakers, analysts and the general public with historical data that may be used in understanding US electricity markets. The Electric Power Annual is prepared by the Survey Management Division; Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels; Energy Information Administration (EIA); US Department of Energy. ``The US Electric Power Industry at a Glance`` section presents a profile of the electric power industry ownership and performance, and a review of key statistics for the year. Subsequent sections present data on generating capability, including proposed capability additions; net generation; fossil-fuel statistics; retail sales; revenue; financial statistics; environmental statistics; electric power transactions; demand-side management; and nonutility power producers. In addition, the appendices provide supplemental data on major disturbances and unusual occurrences in US electricity power systems. Each section contains related text and tables and refers the reader to the appropriate publication that contains more detailed data on the subject matter. Monetary values in this publication are expressed in nominal terms.

  3. CMS Annual Report 2004

    SciTech Connect

    de la Rubia, T D; Shang, S P; Rennie, G; Fluss, M; Westbrook, C

    2005-07-29

    Glance at the articles in this report, and you will sense the transformation that is reshaping the landscape of materials science and chemistry. This transformation is bridging the gaps among chemistry, materials science, and biology--ushering in a wealth of innovative technologies with broad scientific impact. The emergence of this intersection is reinvigorating our strategic investment into areas that build on our strength of interdisciplinary science. It is at the intersection that we position our strategic vision into a future where we will provide radical materials innovations and solutions to our national-security programs and other sponsors. Our 2004 Annual Report describes how our successes and breakthroughs follow a path set forward by our strategic plan and four organizing research themes, each with key scientific accomplishments by our staff and collaborators. We have organized this report into two major sections: research themes and our dynamic teams. The research-theme sections focus on achievements arising from earlier investments while addressing future challenges. The dynamic teams section illustrates the directorate's organizational structure of divisions, centers, and institutes that support a team environment across disciplinary and institutional boundaries. The research presented in this annual report gives substantive examples of how we are proceeding in each of these four theme areas and how they are aligned with our national-security mission. By maintaining an organizational structure that offers an environment of collaborative problem-solving opportunities, we are able to nurture the discoveries and breakthroughs required for future successes.

  4. Gender differences in ophthalmologists' annual incomes.

    PubMed

    Weeks, William B; Wallace, Amy E

    2007-09-01

    To understand the association between provider gender and ophthalmologists' annual incomes. Retrospective analysis of survey data collected from ophthalmologists by the American Medical Association (AMA) between 1992 and 2001. Six hundred thirty white male and 62 white female actively practicing ophthalmologists who responded to the AMA's survey of physicians between 1992 and 2001 and who worked in an office-based practice. A linear regression model was generated to determine the association between provider gender and ophthalmologists' annual incomes after controlling for work effort, provider characteristics, and practice characteristics. Annual incomes of male and female ophthalmologists in 2004 dollars after controlling for work effort, provider characteristics, and practice characteristics. White female ophthalmologists reported having 24% fewer visits and working 5% fewer annual hours than their white male counterparts. White female ophthalmologists had practiced medicine for fewer years than white males and were more likely to be employees, as opposed to having an ownership interest in the practice, but less likely to be board certified. After adjustment for work effort, provider characteristics, and practice characteristics, white females' mean annual income was $219,194, or $55,091 (20%) lower than white males' (95% confidence interval, -$93,611 to -$16,572; P = 0.005). During the 1990s, female gender was associated with lower annual incomes among ophthalmologists. Observed differences may be attributable to factors that we were not able to measure, such as whether the clinician practice was predominantly medical or surgical. However, just as policymakers are exploring gender differences in access to and outcomes of health care, they should further explore gender-based income differences among physicians.

  5. Annual, semi-annual and ter-annual variations of gravity wave momentum flux in 13 years of SABER data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Dan; Preusse, Peter; Ern, Manfred; Strube, Cornelia

    2017-04-01

    In this study, the variations at different time scales such as the annual cycle, the semiannual oscillation (SAO), the ter-annual cycle (about four monthly) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal mean GW amplitudes and GW momentum flux (GWMF) have been investigated using satellite observations from 2002-2014 and combining ECMWF high resolution data with the GORGRAT model. The global distribution (patterns) of spectral amplitudes of GW momentum flux in stratosphere and mesosphere (from 30 km to 90 km) show that the annual cycle is the most predominant variation, and then are SAO, ter-annual cycle and QBO. For annual components, two relatively isolated amplitude maxima appear in each hemisphere: a subtropical maximum is associated with convective sources in summer, a mid and high latitude maximum is associated with the polar vortex in winter. In the subtropics, GWs propagate upward obliquely to the higher latitudes. The winter maximum in the southern hemisphere has larger momentum flux than that one in the northern hemisphere. While on the SH the phase (i.e. time corresponding to the maximum GWMF) continuously descends with the maximum in July in the upper mesosphere and in September in the lower stratosphere, on the northern hemisphere, the phase has no visible altitude dependence with a maximum in December. For semiannual variations, in the MLT (70-80 km) region, there is an obvious enhancement of spectral amplitude at equatorial latitudes which relate to the dissipation of convectively forced GWs. The SAO in absolute momentum flux and the annual cycle in zonal momentum flux indicated that the variations at mid-latitudes (about from 30°-40°) are not a SAO signals but rather an annual cycle when the direction of GWMF is considered. The ter-annual cycle may be related to the duration of active convection in subtropical latitudes (from June to Sep. in north hemisphere) Indications for QBO are found latitude extension to mid-latitudes in stratosphere of

  6. The annual temperature cycle in shelf seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prandle, D.; Lane, A.

    1995-05-01

    A generalized theory is developed to describe the annual temperature cycle in shelf seas. A sinusoidal approximation to the annual solar heating component, S, is assumed and the surface loss term is expressed as a constant k times the air-sea temperature difference ( T a - T s). In well-mixed seas, analytical solutions show that in shallow water the sea temperature follows closely that of the ambient air temperature with limited separate effect of solar heating. Conversely in deep water, the sea surface temperature variations will be reduced relative to that of the ambient air. Providing such deep water remains mixed vertically, the annual variation will be inversely proportional to depth and maximum temperatures will occur up to 3 months after the maximum of solar heating. Generally, the magnitude of the inter-annual variability of sea surface temperatures will be less than corresponding variability in either the effective solar heating, S, (reduced by cloud cover) or the surface loss coefficient, k, (increased by stronger winds). The annual-mean sea temperature will exceed the annual mean air temperature by the annual mean of S divided by k. The above results can be extended to partially-stratified waters so long as autumnal overturning does not occur. For such conditions, an analytical expression is derived for the annual cycle of depth-varying temperatures for mixing associated with a vertical eddy dispersion coefficient E (constant in depth and time). The time taken for solar heating to be equalized throughout the water depth, D, is given by Tv = D 2/E , for a tidal current amplitude of 20 cm s -1. Tv ranges from 3.6 days for D = 50m to231days forD = 400m. To simulate the effect of gravitational instability that produces autumnal overturning, a numerical model is used that represents the effect of daily surface heat exchanges by a series expansion. Results from this model are used to indicate the effects of stratification over a range of values of both depth

  7. 40 CFR 60.2765 - When must I submit my annual report?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false When must I submit my annual report? 60..., 1999 Model Rule-Recordkeeping and Reporting § 60.2765 When must I submit my annual report? You must submit an annual report no later than 12 months following the submission of the information in §...

  8. The Dynamic of Annual Carbon Allocation to Wood in European Forests Is Consistent with a Combined Source-Sink Limitation of Growth: Implications on Growth Simulations in a Terrestrial Biosphere Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillemot, J.; Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Dufrêne, E.; François, C.; Soudani, K.; Ourcival, J. M.; Leadley, P.; Delpierre, N.

    2014-12-01

    The extent to which forest growth is limited by carbon (C) supply (source control) or by cambial activity (sink control) will strongly determines the responses of trees to global changes. However, the physiological processes responsible for the limitation of forest growth are still under debate. The aim of this study was i) to evaluate the key drivers of the annual carbon allocation to wood along large soil and climate regional gradients in four tree species representative of the main European forest biomes (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea, Quercus ilex and Picea abies) ii) to implement the identified key drivers in a new C allocation scheme within the CASTANEA terrestrial biosphere model (TBM). Combining field measurements and process-based simulations at 49 sites (931 site-years), our analyses revealed that the inter-site variability in C allocation to wood was predominantly driven by an age-related decline. The direct control of temperature or water stress on sink activity (i.e. independently from their effects on C supply) exerted a strong influence on the annual woody growth in all the species considered, including deciduous temperate species. The lagged effect of the past environment conditions was a significant driver of the annual C allocation to wood. Carbon supply appeared to strongly limit growth only in deciduous temperate species. Our study supports the premise that European forest growth is under a complex panel of source- and sink- limitations, contradicting the simple source control implemented in most TBMs. The implementation of these combined forest growth limitations in the CASTANEA model significantly improved its performance when evaluated against independent stand growth data at the regional scale (mainland France, >103 plots). We finally discuss how the sink imitation affects the CASTANEA simulated projections of forest productivity along the 21th century, especially with respect to the expected fertilizing effect of increasing atmospheric

  9. LLNL NESHAPs 2000 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, G M; Harrach, R J; Berger, R L; Bertoldo, N A; Tate, P J; Peterson, S R

    2001-06-01

    NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 {micro}Sv) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from 2000 operations are summarized here. {sm_bullet} Livermore site: 0.038 mrem (0.38 {micro}Sv) (45% from point-source emissions, 55% from diffuse-source emissions). The point-source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX, and the resulting dose is used for compliance purposes. {sm_bullet} Site 300: 0.019 mrem (0.19 {micro}Sv) (79% from point-source emissions, 21% from diffuse-source emissions). The EDEs were calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air dispersion/dose-assessment model, except for doses for four diffuse sources, which were calculated from measured concentrations and dose coefficients. Site specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide usage inventory data or continuous stack monitoring data were the specific input to CAP88-PC for each modeled source.

  10. LLNL NESHAPs 2001 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Harrach, R.J.; Peterson, S.-R.; Gallegos, G.M.; Tate, P.J.; Bertoldo, N.A.; Althouse, P.E.

    2002-06-18

    NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 {micro}Sv) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from operations in 2001 are summarized here: (1) Livermore site: 0.017 mrem (0.17 {micro}Sv) (34% from point-source emissions, 66% from diffuse-source emissions), The point-source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX; the resulting dose is used for compliance purposes; and (2) Site 300: 0.054 mrem (0.54 {micro}Sv) (93% from point-source emissions, 7% from diffuse-source emissions); The EDEs were calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air dispersion/dose assessment model, except for doses for three diffuse sources, which were calculated from measured concentrations and dose coefficients. Site specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide usage inventory data or continuous stack monitoring data were the specific inputs to CAP88-PC for each modeled source.

  11. Annual Energy Review 1999

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2000-07-01

    A generation ago the Ford Foundation convened a group of experts to explore and assess the Nation’s energy future, and published their conclusions in A Time To Choose: America’s Energy Future (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1974). The Energy Policy Project developed scenarios of U.S. potential energy use in 1985 and 2000. Now, with 1985 well behind us and 2000 nearly on the record books, it may be of interest to take a look back to see what actually happened and consider what it means for our future. The study group sketched three primary scenarios with differing assumptions about the growth of energy use. The Historical Growth scenario assumed that U.S. energy consumption would continue to expand by 3.4 percent per year, the average rate from 1950 to 1970. This scenario assumed no intentional efforts to change the pattern of consumption, only efforts to encourage development of our energy supply. The Technical Fix scenario anticipated a “conscious national effort to use energy more efficiently through engineering know-how." The Zero Energy Growth scenario, while not clamping down on the economy or calling for austerity, incorporated the Technical Fix efficiencies plus additional efficiencies. This third path anticipated that economic growth would depend less on energy-intensive industries and more on those that require less energy, i.e., the service sector. In 2000, total energy consumption was projected to be 187 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in the Historical Growth case, 124 quadrillion Btu in the Technical Fix case, and 100 quadrillion Btu in the Zero Energy Growth case. The Annual Energy Review 1999 reports a preliminary total consumption for 1999 of 97 quadrillion Btu (see Table 1.1), and the Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 2000) forecasts total energy consumption of 98 quadrillion Btu in 2000. What energy consumption path did the United States actually travel to get from 1974, when the scenarios were drawn

  12. Petroleum marketing annual 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1995-01-01

    The Petroleum Marketing Annual (PMA) contains statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication provides statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysts, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the free-on-board (f.o.b.) and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners acquisition cost of crude oil. Sales data for motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane are presented. For this publication, all estimates have been recalculated since their earlier publication in the Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM). These calculations made use of additional data and corrections that were received after the PMM publication dates.

  13. Annual energy review 1994

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1995-07-01

    This 13th edition presents the Energy Information Administration's historical energy statistics. For most series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 1994; thus, this report is well-suited to long-term trend analyses. It covers all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels and electricity. Statistics on renewable energy sources are also included: this year, for the first time, usage of renewables by other consumers as well as by electric utilities is included. Also new is a two-part, comprehensive presentation of data on petroleum products supplied by sector for 1949 through 1994. Data from electric utilities and nonutilities are integrated as 'electric power industry' data; nonutility power gross generation are presented for the first time. One section presents international statistics (for more detail see EIA's International Energy Annual).

  14. Annual energy review 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1995-07-01

    This 13th edition presents the Energy Information Administration`s historical energy statistics. For most series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 1994; thus, this report is well-suited to long-term trend analyses. It covers all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels and electricity. Statistics on renewable energy sources are also included: this year, for the first time, usage of renewables by other consumers as well as by electric utilities is included. Also new is a two-part, comprehensive presentation of data on petroleum products supplied by sector for 1949 through 1994. Data from electric utilities and nonutilities are integrated as ``electric power industry`` data; nonutility power gross generation are presented for the first time. One section presents international statistics (for more detail see EIA`s International Energy Annual).

  15. Uranium industry annual 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1997-04-01

    The Uranium Industry Annual 1996 (UIA 1996) provides current statistical data on the US uranium industry`s activities relating to uranium raw materials and uranium marketing. The UIA 1996 is prepared for use by the Congress, Federal and State agencies, the uranium and nuclear electric utility industries, and the public. Data on uranium raw materials activities for 1987 through 1996 including exploration activities and expenditures, EIA-estimated reserves, mine production of uranium, production of uranium concentrate, and industry employment are presented in Chapter 1. Data on uranium marketing activities for 1994 through 2006, including purchases of uranium and enrichment services, enrichment feed deliveries, uranium fuel assemblies, filled and unfilled market requirements, uranium imports and exports, and uranium inventories are shown in Chapter 2. A feature article, The Role of Thorium in Nuclear Energy, is included. 24 figs., 56 tabs.

  16. Uranium Industry Annual, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-10-28

    The Uranium Industry Annual provides current statistical data on the US uranium industry for the Congress, Federal and State agencies, the uranium and electric utility industries, and the public. The feature article, ``Decommissioning of US Conventional Uranium Production Centers,`` is included. Data on uranium raw materials activities including exploration activities and expenditures, resources and reserves, mine production of uranium, production of uranium concentrate, and industry employment are presented in Chapter 1. Data on uranium marketing activities including domestic uranium purchases, commitments by utilities, procurement arrangements, uranium imports under purchase contracts and exports, deliveries to enrichment suppliers, inventories, secondary market activities, utility market requirements, and uranium for sale by domestic suppliers are presented in Chapter 2.

  17. Coal industry annual 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-12-06

    Coal Industry Annual 1993 replaces the publication Coal Production (DOE/FIA-0125). This report presents additional tables and expanded versions of tables previously presented in Coal Production, including production, number of mines, Productivity, employment, productive capacity, and recoverable reserves. This report also presents data on coal consumption, coal distribution, coal stocks, coal prices, coal quality, and emissions for a wide audience including the Congress, Federal and State agencies, the coal industry, and the general public. In addition, Appendix A contains a compilation of coal statistics for the major coal-producing States. This report does not include coal consumption data for nonutility Power Producers who are not in the manufacturing, agriculture, mining, construction, or commercial sectors. This consumption is estimated to be 5 million short tons in 1993.

  18. The Eastern Iowa Community College District Data Collection Matrix Model: A Tool for Functional Area and Program Evaluation. AIR 1990 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coker, Dana Rosenberg; Friedel, Janice Nahra

    A matrix model for the collection, management, and utilization of data was developed at Eastern Iowa Community College District, (Davenport, Iowa) for evaluating institutional effectiveness. The model was examined in relation to various assessment instruments and the evaluation of functional areas and programs. Surveys of six different target…

  19. Policy Analysis Implications of a Model to Improve the Delivery of Financial Aid to Disadvantaged Students. AIR 1983 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fenske, Robert H.; Porter, John D.

    The role of institutional research in policy analysis regarding the operation of a computer model for delivery of financial aid to disadvantaged students is considered. A student financial aid model at Arizona State University is designed to develop a profile of late appliers for aid funds and also those who file inaccurate or incomplete…

  20. Regionalization of mean annual suspended-sediment loads in streams, central, northwestern, and southwestern Colorado

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Elliott, J.G.

    1988-01-01

    Regression analysis was used to develop models for estimating mean annual suspended-sediment loads for streams in Colorado. Mean annual suspended-sediment loads at 81 selected streamflow-gaging stations in the central, northwestern, and southwestern regions of Colorado were expressed as functions of geomorphic and hydrologic variables. A multiple-regression model that included mean basin elevation, mean annual streamflow, and drainage-basin area explained 78% of the variance in mean annual suspended-sediment load when all sites were analyzed together. The state was divided into four regions to decrease variance from spatial differences in geography and climate, and multiple-regression models were recomputed for each region. The best multiple-regression models for the central, northwestern, and southwestern regions of Colorado included mean annual streamflow and mean basin elevation. A multiple-regression model was not developed for eastern Colorado because few sites in this region had adequate sediment-load records. Regionalization of mean annual suspended-sediment loads resulted in improved multiple-regression models for the central, northwestern, and southwestern regions of Colorado. The regional multiple-regression models can be used to estimate mean annual suspended-sediment loads for other streams in these regions when mean annual streamflow and mean basin elevation are known. Regional regression models based only on drainage area also were developed, and they can be used to estimate mean annual suspended-sediment load when annual streamflow is unknown. (USGS)

  1. The Martian annual atmospheric pressure cycle - Years without great dust storms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tillman, James E.; Johnson, Neal C.; Guttorp, Peter; Percival, Donald B.

    1993-01-01

    A model of the annual cycle of pressure on Mars for a 2-yr period, chosen to include one year at the Viking Lander 2 and to minimize the effect of great dust storms at the 22-deg N Lander 1 site, was developed by weighted least squares fitting of the Viking Lander pressure measurements to an annual mean, and fundamental and the first four harmonics of the annual cycle. Close agreement was obtained between the two years, suggesting that an accurate representation of the annual CO2 condensation-sublimation cycle can be established for such years. This model is proposed as the 'nominal' Martian annual pressure cycle, and applications are suggested.

  2. Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review provides a yearly comparison between realized energy outcomes and the Reference case projections included in previous Annual Energy Outlooks (AEO) beginning with 1982. This edition of the report adds the AEO 2012 projections and updates the historical data to incorporate the latest data revisions.

  3. Annual Reports. SPEC Kit 49.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Association of Research Libraries, Washington, DC. Office of Management Studies.

    An examination of the Systems and Procedures Exchange Center's (SPEC) file of 72 annual reports from Association of Research Libraries (ARL) member institutions found that administrators were using annual reports for several purposes: as communication links with library users, the university administration, and the general university community,…

  4. Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review provides a yearly comparison between realized energy outcomes and the Reference case projections included in previous Annual Energy Outlooks (AEO) beginning with 1982. This edition of the report adds the AEO 2012 projections and updates the historical data to incorporate the latest data revisions.

  5. 2005 Annual Merit Review Proceedings

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-18

    Each year hydrogen and fuel cell projects funded by DOE's Hydrogen Program are reviewed for their merit during an Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting. The 2005 Annual Merit Review was held May 23-25, 2005 in Arlington, VA

  6. Influence of local and external processes on the annual nitrogen cycle and primary productivity on Georges Bank: A 3-D biological-physical modeling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Rubao; Davis, Cabell; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert

    2008-09-01

    Georges Bank is one of the world's most highly productive marine areas, but the mechanisms of nutrient supply to support such high productivity remain poorly understood. Intrusions of nutrient-poor Labrador Slope Water (LSW) into the Gulf of Maine (NAO-dependent) potentially can reduce nutrient delivery to the bank, but this mechanism has not been quantitatively examined. In this paper, we present the first whole-year continuous model simulation results using a biological-physical model developed for the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank region. This high-resolution three-dimensional coupled model consists of the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) and a Nitrogen-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) model, and was used to examine the influences of local and external processes on nitrogen and phytoplankton dynamics on Georges Bank. The model captured the general pattern of spatial-temporal distributions of nitrogen and phytoplankton and provided a diagnostic analysis of different processes that control nitrogen fluxes on Georges Bank. Specifically, numerical experiments were conducted to examine seasonal variation in nitrogen transport into the central bank (new nitrogen supply) versus nitrogen regenerated internally in this region. Compared with previous observation-based studies, the model provided a quantitative estimate of nitrogen flux by integrating the transport over a longer time period and a complete spatial domain. The results suggest that, during summer months, internal nitrogen regeneration is the major nitrogen source for primary production on the central bank, while nitrogen supply through physical transport (e.g. tidal pumping) contributes about 1/5 of the total nitrogen demand, with an estimated on-bank nitrogen transport at least 50% less than previous estimates. By comparing the model runs using different nitrogen concentrations in deep Slope Water, the potential influence of NAO-dependent intrusions of LSW was examined. The results suggest

  7. The importance of the South Atlantic high pressure system for the Tropical Atlantic annual cycle: experiments with a regionally coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry; Jacob, Daniela; Wang, Qiang; Jung, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Conditions in the Tropical Atlantic (TA) are important for the climate in many regions. Because of this, it is important to simulate accurately the seasonal and interannual variability in this region. Currently, most of the coupled models suffer from serious biases in the TA. Identifying the causes of these biases is an important issue. Using a high-resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere regional model MPIOM- REMO (ROM) we explore the importance of the South Atlantic high pressure (SAH) for the simulated TA variability. In ROM a global ocean model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology. The coupling is active in the region covered by REMO, whereas in the rest of the ocean its circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Here we analyze two set of simulations that differ by the coupled area. In one of the setups, the atmospheric model domain includes the SAH, whereas in the second, the SAH is outside the region of active coupling. The first setup shows a much reduced warm bias in sea surface temperature (SST) in the warm pool and in the Angola-Bengela front. We analyze the contribution of the ocean and the atmosphere to these differences

  8. Evaluation of 3-d hydrodynamic computer models for prediction of LNG vapor dispersion in the atmosphere. Annual report March 1983-February 1984

    SciTech Connect

    Havens, J.A.; Schreurs, P.J.

    1984-03-01

    The FEM3, MARIAH II, SIGMET-N, and ZEPHYR Heavy Gas Dispersion Models have been transferred to the University of Arkansas and installed on a project-dedicated computer system for evaluation. A series of test LNG release scenarios has been simulated to determine the models predicted effects due to variation in dispersion scenario parameters such as gas release rate, wind speed, and atmospheric stability. A series of isothermal, fixed volume, instantaneous releases of Freon-air mixtures has been performed, providing an extensive data base of concentration measurements as a function of radial and vertical position in the developing heavy gas cloud for evaluation of model predictions. A prototype gas sensor, which uses an aspirated flame ionization detector, suitable for concentration measurements in cold gas spills has been developed.

  9. High-intensity drying processes: Impulse drying modeling of fluid flow and heat transfer in a crown compensated impulse drying press roll, The lubrication problem. Annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Orloff, D.I.; Hojjatie, B.; Bloom, F.

    1994-08-01

    Although evaporative drying is currently used to dry paper, research has showed that significant energy savings could be realized with the newer impulse drying technology in drying heavy weight grades of paper. This report analyzes the lubrication problem which arises in modeling impulse drying employing a crown compensated roll. The geometry for the associated steady flow problem is constructed and expressions are derived for the relevant velocity fields, mass flow rates, and normal and tangential forces acting on both the bottom surface of an internal hydrostatic shoe and the inside surface of the crown-compensated roll. Results from the analytical model agreed well with experimental data from Beloit Corp. for the small shoe/roll configuration. The model can be used to predict effect of design and physical parameters on the performance of the press roll (lubricant thickness, pressure distributions, mechanical power required to operate the roll, etc.) and to determine optimal performance under various operating conditions.

  10. Study of mathematical models of mutation and selection in multi-locus systems. Annual progress report, October 1, 1980-September 30, 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Lewontin, R C

    1981-01-01

    During the past year, research has been devoted to two related studies of two-locus systems under natural selection and one on selection in haplo-diploid organisms. The principal results are: (1) Numerical studies were made of 2 locus selection models with asymmetric fitnesses. These were created by perturbing the fitness matrices of symmetric models whose results are known analytically. A complete classification of solved models has been made and all perturbations of these have been undertaken. The result is that all models lead to three classes of equilibrium structure. All are characterized by multiple equilbria with small linkage disequilibria under loose linkage and high complementarity equilibria under tight linkage. In some cases there is gene fixation at intermediate linkage. (2) It has been shown that selection may favor more recombination, contrary to the usual expectation, if multiple locus polymorphisms are maintained by a mechanism other than marginal overdominance. This may be the result of mutation-selection balance or frequency-dependent selection. (3) In a haplo-diploid system in which diploid males are lethal (as in bees and braconid wasps) the number of sex alleles that can be maintained depends both on breeding size and the number of colonies. Simulations show that the steady number is sensitive to the number of colonies but insensitive to the number of matings. Thirty-five to fifty colonies are sufficient to maintain very large numbers of sex alleles.

  11. Summary Report of the Proceedings of the Annual Model U.N. Seminar (9th, New York, New York, July 8-10, 1988).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Association of the United States of America, New York, NY.

    The purpose of this Model United Nations (UN) seminar for faculty advisors and conference leaders was to provide seminar participants with new and innovative ideas to more effectively simulate the complex UN system. This document summarizes seminar speeches presented by: (1) James Jonah, Assistant U.N. Secretary-General; (2) Frank Pinto,…

  12. From the Model Minority to the Invisible Minority: Asian & Pacific American Students in Higher Education Research. AIR 1998 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rohrlick, Jeffrey; Alvarado, Diana; Zaruba, Karen; Kallio, Ruth

    The paper provides an overview of research on Asian and Pacific American (APA) undergraduates at U.S. institutions, focusing on the origins, assumptions, and fallacies of the "model minority" image. In addition, it offers highlights from a recent campus survey that suggests that APA students perceive their university experience…

  13. Site S-7 Representative Model and Application for the Vadose Zone Monitoring System (VZMS) McClellan AFB - 1998 Semi-Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    James, A.L.; Oldenburg, C.M.

    1998-12-01

    Vadose zone data collection and enhanced data analysis are continuing for the Vadose Zone Monitoring System (VZMS) installed at site S-7 in IC 34 at McClellan MB. Data from core samples from boreholes drilled in 1998 and from VZMS continuous monitoring are evaluated and compared to previously collected data and analyses. The suite of data collected to date is used to develop and constrain a spatially averaged, one-dimensional site S-7 representative model that is implemented into T2VOC. Testing of the conceptual model under conditions of recharge of 100 mm/yr produces plausible moisture contents relative to data from several sources. Further scoping calculations involving gas-phase TCE transport in the representative model were undertaken. We investigate the role of recharge on TCE transport as well as the role of ion- and gas-phase flow driven by density and barometric pumping effects. This report provides the first example of the application of the site S-7 representative model in th e investigation of subsurface VOC movement.

  14. A Structural Model of Student Integration, Finances, Behavior, and Career Development: An Elaborated Framework of Attitudes and Persistence. ASHE Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sandler, Martin E.

    As a response to the problems of nontraditional student attrition at two-year and four-year urban colleges, this paper introduces the constructs of career decision-making self-efficacy, perceived stress, and financial difficulty into a model built on the synthesis of Cabrera (1993). A questionnaire was administered to adult nontraditional (age 24…

  15. Reasons for Staying: A Test of the Chain of Response Model among Community-College Students. AIR 2001 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salomonson, Kristen; Moss, Brian G.; Hill, H. Leon

    This paper uses the Chain of Response Model (CRM) to help explain retention in the community college population. In the CRM, the student's decision to remain at an educational institution is not an isolated act, but rather the result of a complex chain of responses based on her/his cognitive evaluation of the present situation. The authors applied…

  16. Annual Energy Review 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2001-08-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) presents the Energy Information Administration’s historical energy statistics. For many series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 2000. The statistics, expressed in either physical units or British thermal units, cover all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices, for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels, electricity, and renewable energy sources. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the Energy Information Administration under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding data series in the AER and in other EIA publications.

  17. Annual Energy Review 2002

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2003-10-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) presents the Energy Information Administration’s historical energy statistics. For many series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 2002. The statistics, expressed in either physical units or British thermal units, cover all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices, for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels, electricity, and renewable energy sources. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding data series in the AER and in other EIA publications. Related Publication: Readers of the AER may also be interested in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review, which presents monthly updates of many of the data in the AER. Contact our National Energy Information Center for more information.

  18. 2007 LDRD ANNUAL REPORT

    SciTech Connect

    French, T

    2008-12-16

    I am pleased to present the fiscal year 2007 Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) annual report. This represents the first year that SRNL has been eligible for LDRD participation and our results to date demonstrate we are off to an excellent start. SRNL became a National Laboratory in 2004, and was designated the 'Corporate Laboratory' for the DOE Office of Environmental Management (EM) in 2006. As you will see, we have made great progress since these designations. The LDRD program is one of the tools SRNL is using to enable achievement of our strategic goals for the DOE. The LDRD program allows the laboratory to blend a strong basic science component into our applied technical portfolio. This blending of science with applied technology provides opportunities for our scientists to strengthen our capabilities and delivery. The LDRD program is vital to help SRNL attract and retain leading scientists and engineers who will help build SRNL's future and achieve DOE mission objectives. This program has stimulated our research staff creativity, while realizing benefits from their participation. This investment will yield long term dividends to the DOE in its Environmental Management, Energy, and National Security missions.

  19. Annual Energy Review 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    1998-07-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) presents the Energy Information Administration’s historical energy statistics. For many series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 1997. The statistics, expressed in either physical units or British thermal units, cover all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices, for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels, electricity, and renewable energy sources. Publication of this report is in keeping with responsibilities given to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), which states, in part, in Section 205(a)(2) that: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding data series in the AER and in other EIA publications.

  20. Annual energy review 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-06-29

    This eleventh edition of the Annual Energy Review (AER) presents the Energy Information Administration`s historical energy statistics. For most series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 1992. Because coverage spans four decades, the statistics in this report are well-suited to tong-term trend analyses. The AER is comprehensive. It covers all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices, all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels and electricity. The AER also presents statistics on some renewable energy sources. For the most part, fuel-specific data are expressed in physical units such as barrels, cubic feet, and short tons. The integrated summary data in Section 1 are expressed in Btu. The Btu values are calculated using the conversion factors in Appendix A. Statistics expressed in Btu are valuable in that they allow for comparisons among different fuels and for the calculation of in the integrated summary statistics such as US consumption of Energy. The AER emphasizes domestic energy statistics.

  1. Spatial Analysis of Weather-induced Annual and Decadal Average Yield Variability as Modeled by EPIC for Rain-fed Wheat in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khabarov, Nikolay; Balkovic, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Schwartz, Alexander; Obersteiner, Michael; Azevedo, Ligia B.

    2016-04-01

    In our analysis we evaluate the accuracy of near-term (decadal) average crop yield assessments as supported by the biophysical crop growth model EPIC. A spatial assessment of averages and variability has clear practical implications for agricultural producers and investors concerned with an estimation of the basic stochastic characteristics of a crop yield distribution. As a reliable weather projection for a time period of several years will apparently remain a challenge in the near future, we have employed the existing gridded datasets on historical weather as a best proxy for the current climate. Based on different weather inputs to EPIC, we analyzed the model runs for the rain-fed wheat for 1968-2007 employing AgGRID/GGCMI simulations using harmonized inputs and assumptions (weather datasets: GRASP and Princeton). We have explored the variability of historical ten-year yield averages in the past forty years as modeled by the EPIC model, and found that generally the ten-year average yield variability is less than 20% ((max-min)/average), whereas there are mid/low yielding areas with a higher ten-years average variability of 20-50%. The location of these spots of high variability differs between distinctive model-weather setups. Assuming that historical weather can be used as a proxy of the weather in the next ten years, a best possible EPIC-based assessment of a ten-year average yield is a range of 20% width ((max-min)/average). For some mid/low productive areas the range is up to 50% wide.

  2. A chaotic-dynamical conceptual model to describe fluid flow and contaminant transport in a fractured vadose zone. 1997 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Faybishenko, B.

    1997-10-01

    'Understanding subsurface flow and transport processes is critical for effective assessment, decision-making, and remediation activities for contaminated sites. However, for fluid flow and contaminant transport through fractured vadose zones, traditional hydrogeological approaches are often found to be inadequate. In this project, the authors examine flow and transport through a fractured vadose zone as a deterministic chaotic dynamical process, and develop a model of it in these terms. Initially, they examine separately the geometric model of fractured rock and the flow dynamics model needed to describe chaotic behavior. Ultimately they will put the geometry and flow dynamics together to develop a chaotic-dynamical model of flow and transport in a fractured vadose zone. They investigate water flow and contaminant transport on several scales, ranging from small-scale laboratory experiments in fracture replicas and fractured cores, to field experiments conducted in a single exposed fracture at a basalt outcrop, and finally to a ponded infiltration test using a pond of 7 by 8 m. In the field experiments, the authors measure the time-variation of water flux, moisture content, and hydraulic head at various locations, as well as the total inflow rate to the subsurface. Such variations reflect the changes in the geometry and physics of water flow that display chaotic behavior, which the authors try to reconstruct using the data obtained. In the analysis of experimental data, a chaotic model can be used to predict the long-term bounds on fluid flow and transport behavior, known as the attractor of the system, and to examine the limits of short-term predictability within these bounds. This approach is especially well suited to the need for short-term predictions to support remediation decisions and long-term bounding studies.'

  3. A chaotic-dynamical conceptual model to describe fluid flow and contaminant transport in a fractured vadose zone. 1997 progress report and presentations at the annual meeting, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, December 3--4, 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Faybishenko, B.; Doughty, C.; Geller, J.

    1998-07-01

    Understanding subsurface flow and transport processes is critical for effective assessment, decision-making, and remediation activities for contaminated sites. However, for fluid flow and contaminant transport through fractured vadose zones, traditional hydrogeological approaches are often found to be inadequate. In this project, the authors examine flow and transport through a fractured vadose zone as a deterministic chaotic dynamical process, and develop a model of it in these terms. Initially, the authors examine separately the geometric model of fractured rock and the flow dynamics model needed to describe chaotic behavior. Ultimately they will put the geometry and flow dynamics together to develop a chaotic-dynamical model of flow and transport in a fractured vadose zone. They investigate water flow and contaminant transport on several scales, ranging from small-scale laboratory experiments in fracture replicas and fractured cores, to field experiments conducted in a single exposed fracture at a basalt outcrop, and finally to a ponded infiltration test using a pond of 7 by 8 m. In the field experiments, they measure the time-variation of water flux, moisture content, and hydraulic head at various locations, as well as the total inflow rate to the subsurface. Such variations reflect the changes in the geometry and physics of water flow that display chaotic behavior, which they try to reconstruct using the data obtained. In the analysis of experimental data, a chaotic model can be used to predict the long-term bounds on fluid flow and transport behavior, known as the attractor of the system, and to examine the limits of short-term predictability within these bounds. This approach is especially well suited to the need for short-term predictions to support remediation decisions and long-term bounding studies. View-graphs from ten presentations made at the annual meeting held December 3--4, 1997 are included in an appendix to this report.

  4. Using annual plants as atmospheric 14CO2 samplers for regional fossil fuel emissions estimates: crop modeling and intensive sampling approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bozhinova, D.; Peters, W.; Combe, M.; Palstra, S. W.; Meijer, H. A.; Krol, M. C.

    2010-12-01

    Using radiocarbon (14C) as a tracer for fossil fuel emissions is promising, even as sampling atmospheric 14CO2 for long periods of time is demanding and expensive. An alternative is to use plants to record the atmospheric carbon isotopic abundances, as plants naturally integrate carbon during their growing period by photosynthesis. A main uncertainty in this approach, however, is the unknown time period in which the uptake of CO2 has taken place. How plants “sample” the atmospheric carbon and transport it to their different parts depends strongly on their growth and developmental pattern. We use the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) together with a mechanistic crop growth model to quantify the representativeness of plant sampled atmospheric 14C mixing ratios on a regional scale. We compare our modeled results to measured 14C in maize and wheat samples from a region in the north of the Netherlands, affected by urban CO2 plumes as well as a local power plant. We find based on the modeled results that even in the absence of spatial fossil fuel gradients in the atmosphere, differences in plant growth rates can introduce Δ14C gradients of up to 3.5‰ over plants in the Netherlands. We furthermore use the simulated plant growth rates to narrow the period for which a plant sample can be used as a proxy, which will help to lower the uncertainty on estimated fossil fuel emissions. Our work provides first steps towards quantitatively using plant 14C sampling for verification of regional fossil fuel emissions. Map of Δ14C signature (in ‰) of spring wheat at flowering day, with grid resolution of 4x4 km. Plant growth is simulated by mechanistic crop growth model (SUCROS 2) with weather data over the growing season provided by WRF model. The temporal evolution of the 14C signature of the atmosphere is spatially uniform over the domain. The figure shows that differences in daily growth can introduce Δ14C gradients of up to 3.5‰ even in the absence of spatial

  5. Development of military performance models for the assessment of psychopharmacological agent impact. Annual report (Final), 1 September 1984-30 September 1987

    SciTech Connect

    Laughery, K.D.; Drews, C.

    1987-11-01

    In time of war, the human operators of military systems may be exposed to harmful psychopharmacological agents. Certain pretreatment drugs are known to ward off the harmful effects of chemical agents, but these drugs have adverse side effects that may degrade a soldier's ability to perform an operation. This report describes the development of a task network modeling tool which is used to simulate the effect of drugs on human performance. This tool is a software package known as Micro SAINT. It runs on an IBM PC or compatible microcomputer. The construction of models is entirely menu-driven, and does not require knowledge of computer programming. This report contains recommended procedures for conducting simulation analysis. Micro SAINT is presently being used in over 55 government installations.

  6. Study of mathematical models of mutation and selection in multi-locus systems. Annual progress report, April 1, 1979-March 31, 1980

    SciTech Connect

    Lewontin, R C

    1980-01-01

    During the past year, research has been devoted to two topics with principal results as follows: (1) an analytic and computer study was carried out of the growth of a population like the human population, which has age distributed mortality and fecundity, but for which the rates of birth and death are varying from period to period in time. The entries in the Leslie Matrix were considered to vary by a Markov process. The result is that although the expectation of the population size may grow, the numbers may decrease to zero with high probability and that, in general, the population size at time t depends upon the logarithm of growth rates, and ln lambda/sub t/ is asymptotically normally distributed; and (2) numerical studies were undertaken of 2 locus genetic models with asymmetric fitness matrices created by perturbing the parameters of symmetric fitness matrices where solutions are known analytically. The general results are that linkage equilibrium solutions do not exist at all for such asymmetric models, that the value of D at loose linkage is about the order of the asymmetry and that for asymmetric models there is a critical value of recombination below which new equilibria come into existence beside the one that exists for all r.

  7. Meeting Abstracts - Annual Meeting 2016.

    PubMed

    2016-04-01

    The AMCP Abstracts program provides a forum through which authors can share their insights and outcomes of advanced managed care practice through publication in AMCP's Journal of Managed Care & Specialty Pharmacy (JMCP). Most of the reviewed and unreviewed abstracts are presented as posters so that interested AMCP meeting attendees can review findings and query authors. The Student/Resident/ Fellow poster presentation (unreviewed) is Wednesday, April 20, 2016, and the Professional poster presentation (reviewed) is Thursday, April 21. The Professional posters will also be displayed on Friday, April 22. The reviewed abstracts are published in the JMCP Meeting Abstracts supplement. The AMCP Managed Care & Specialty Pharmacy Annual Meeting 2016 in San Francisco, California, is expected to attract more than 3,500 managed care pharmacists and other health care professionals who manage and evaluate drug therapies, develop and manage networks, and work with medical managers and information specialists to improve the care of all individuals enrolled in managed care programs. Abstracts were submitted in the following categories: Research Report: describe completed original research on managed care pharmacy services or health care interventions. Examples include (but are not limited to) observational studies using administrative claims, reports of the impact of unique benefit design strategies, and analyses of the effects of innovative administrative or clinical programs. Economic Model: describe models that predict the effect of various benefit design or clinical decisions on a population. For example, an economic model could be used to predict the budget impact of a new pharmaceutical product on a health care system. Solving Problems in Managed Care: describe the specific steps taken to introduce a needed change, develop and implement a new system or program, plan and organize an administrative function, or solve other types of problems in managed care settings. These

  8. LLNL NESHAPs 2008 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Bertoldo, N; Gallegos, G; MacQueen, D; Wegrecki, A; Wilson, K

    2009-06-25

    Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC operates facilities at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) where radionuclides are handled and stored. These facilities are subject to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) in Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Title 40, Part 61, Subpart H, which regulates radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. Specifically, NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent of 10 mrem (100 {mu}Sv) to any member of the public. Using measured and calculated emissions, and building-specific and common parameters, LLNL personnel applied the EPA-approved computer code, CAP88-PC, Version 1.0, to calculate the dose to the maximally exposed individual for the Livermore site and Site 300. The dose for the LLNL site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from operations in 2008 are summarized here: {sm_bullet} Livermore site: 0.0013 mrem (0.013 {mu}Sv) (26% from point source emissions, 74% from diffuse source emissions). The point source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX; the resulting dose is used for compliance purposes. {sm_bullet} Site 300: 0.000000044 mrem (0.00000044 {mu}Sv) (100% from point source emissions).

  9. Annual energy review 2003

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherin E.

    2004-09-30

    The Annual Energy Review 2003 is a statistical history of energy activities in the United States in modern times. Data are presented for all major forms of energy by production (extraction of energy from the earth, water, and other parts of the environment), consumption by end-user sector, trade with other nations, storage changes, and pricing. Much of the data provided covers the fossil fuels—coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Fossil fuels are nature’s batteries; they have stored the sun’s energy over millennia past. It is primarily that captured energy that we are drawing on today to fuel the activities of the modern economy. Data in this report measure the extraordinary expansion of our use of fossil fuels from 29 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 1949 to 84 quadrillion Btu in 2003. In recent years, fossil fuels accounted for 86 percent of all energy consumed in the United States. This report also records the development of an entirely new energy industry—the nuclear electric power industry. The industry got its start in this country in 1957 when the Shippingport, Pennsylvania, nuclear electric power plant came on line. Since that time, the industry has grown to account for 20 percent of our electrical output and 8 percent of all energy used in the country. Renewable energy is a third major category of energy reported in this volume. Unlike fossil fuels, which are finite in supply, renewable energy is essentially inexhaustible because it can be replenished. Types of energy covered in the renewable category include conventional hydroelectric power, which is power derived from falling water; wood; waste; alcohol fuels; geothermal; solar; and wind. Together, these forms of energy accounted for about 6 percent of all U.S. energy consumption in recent years.

  10. Annual energy review 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is a historical data report that tells many stories. It describes, in numbers, the changes that have occurred in US energy markets since the midpoint of the 20th century. In many cases, those markets differ vastly from those of a half-century ago. By studying the graphs and data tables presented in this report, readers can learn about past energy supply and usage in the United States and gain an understanding of the issues in energy and the environment now before use. While most of this year`s report content is similar to last year`s, there are some noteworthy developments. Table 1.1 has been restructured into more summarized groupings -- fossil fuels, nuclear electric power, and renewable energy -- to aid analysts in their examination of the basic trends in those broad categories. Readers` attention is also directed to the electricity section, where considerable reformatting of the tables and graphs has been carried out to help clarify past and recent trends in the electric power industry as it enters a period of radical restructuring. Table 9.1, which summarizes US nuclear generating units, has been redeveloped to cover the entire history of the industry in this country and to provide categories relevant in assessing the future of the industry, such as the numbers of ordered generating units that have been canceled and those that were built and later shut down. In general, the AER emphasizes domestic energy statistics. Sections 1 through 10 and Section 12 are devoted mostly to US data; Section 11 reports on international statistics and world totals. 140 figs., 141 tabs.

  11. Proceedings of the Annual Review Conference (13th) on Atmospheric Transmission Models Held in Hanscom AFB, Massachusetts on 5-6 June 1990

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-06-01

    SOLAR AND INFRARED RADIATION FIELDS FOR BTI/SWOE J.R. Hummel SPARTA, Inc., 24 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA 02173 The Balanced Technology Initiative (BTI...MODELING SOLAR AND INFRARED RADIATION FIELDS FOR BTI/SWOE John R. Hummel SPARTA, Inc. 24 Hartwell Avenue Lexington, MA 02173 June 5, 1990 Presented to...0 ;oI SPATIAL NON-UNIFORMITY OF AEROSOLS AT THE 15,500 ft LEVEL L.A. Mathews Naval Weapons Center, Code 3892, China Lake , CA 93555 P.L. Walker

  12. Evaluation of the inter-annual variability of stratospheric chemical composition in chemistry-climate models using ground-based multi species time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poulain, V.; Bekki, S.; Marchand, M.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Khodri, M.; Lefèvre, F.; Dhomse, S.; Bodeker, G. E.; Toumi, R.; De Maziere, M.; Pommereau, J.-P.; Pazmino, A.; Goutail, F.; Plummer, D.; Rozanov, E.; Mancini, E.; Akiyoshi, H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Austin, J.

    2016-07-01

    The variability of stratospheric chemical composition occurs on a broad spectrum of timescales, ranging from day to decades. A large part of the variability appears to be driven by external forcings such as volcanic aerosols, solar activity, halogen loading, levels of greenhouse gases (GHG), and modes of climate variability (quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)). We estimate the contributions of different external forcings to the interannual variability of stratospheric chemical composition and evaluate how well 3-D chemistry-climate models (CCMs) can reproduce the observed response-forcing relationships. We carry out multivariate regression analyses on long time series of observed and simulated time series of several traces gases in order to estimate the contributions of individual forcings and unforced variability to their internannual variability. The observations are typically decadal time series of ground-based data from the international Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and the CCM simulations are taken from the CCMVal-2 REF-B1 simulations database. The chemical species considered are column O3, HCl, NO2, and N2O. We check the consistency between observations and model simulations in terms of the forced and internal components of the total interannual variability (externally forced variability and internal variability) and identify the driving factors in the interannual variations of stratospheric chemical composition over NDACC measurement sites. Overall, there is a reasonably good agreement between regression results from models and observations regarding the externally forced interannual variability. A much larger fraction of the observed and modelled interannual variability is explained by external forcings in the tropics than in the extratropics, notably in polar regions. CCMs are able to reproduce the amplitudes of responses in chemical composition to specific external forcings

  13. Mathematical Modeling of Space-Time Variations in Acoustic Transmission and Scattering from Schools of Swim Bladder Fish (FY13 Annual Report)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-30

    Santiago, Chile phone: +56 2 354 4800 fax: +56 2 354 4491 email: chris.feuillade@gmail.com Award Number: N00014-111-0161 LONG-TERM GOALS The goal is...the Love swim bladder model is used as the kernel (Ref. 2 ). 1 Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for...display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 30 SEP 2013 2 . REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2013 to 00-00-2013 4. TITLE AND

  14. Integration of advanced geoscience and engineering techniques to quantify interwell heterogeneity in reservoir models. Annual report, September 29, 1994--September 30, 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, F.D.; Buckley, J.S.; Weiss, W.W.; Ouenes, A.

    1996-04-01

    The purpose of this project is to conduct a variety of laboratory and field tests and utilize all the geological, geophysical, and engineering information to develop a mathematical model of the reservoir by the use of global optimization methods. This interdisciplinary effort will integrate advanced geoscience and reservoir engineering concepts to quantify interwell reservoir heterogeneity and the dynamics of fluid-rock and fluid-fluid interactions. The reservoir characterization includes geological methods (outcrop and reservoir rock studies), geophysical methods (interwell acoustic techniques), and other reservoir/hydrologic methodologies including analyses of pressure transient data, core studies, and tracer tests. The field testing is being conducted at the Sulimar Queen Unit with related laboratory testing at the PRRC on samples from the Sulimar site and Queen sandstone outcrops. The aim is to (1) characterize and quantify lithologic heterogeneity, (2) mathematically quantify changes in the heterogeneity at various scales, (3) integrate the wide variety of data into a model that is jointly constrained by the interdisciplinary interpretive effort, and (4) help optimize petroleum recovery efficiencies.

  15. Environmentally-induced malignancies: An in vivo model to evaluate the health impact of chemicals in mixed waste. 1997 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Pallavicini, M.

    1997-01-01

    'Occupational or environmental exposure to organic ligands, solvents, fuel hydrocarbons, and polychlorinated biphenyls is linked to increased risk of developing leukemia, a blood cancer. The long term health effects of exposure to complex mixtures of chemicals and radionuclides are of particular concern because their biologic effects may synergize to increase risk of malignancy. Increased understanding of steps in the progression pathway of a normal cell to a cancer cell is important for biomonitoring, risk assessment and intervention in exposed individuals. Leukemias are characterized by multiple genetic aberrations. Accumulation of multiple genomic changes may reflect genomic instability in the affected ceils. Thus agents that induce DNA damage or genomic instability may increase accumulation of genomic alterations, thereby predisposing cells to transformation. However, not all DNA damaging agents predispose to transformation. Other factors such as genetic susceptibility, cell and tissue response to genotoxicity and cytotoxicity, DNA repair, etc. will impact malignant progression. The author proposed a progression model (Figure 1) of environmentally-induced leukemia that can be evaluated using mouse models.'

  16. Annual evapotranspiration retrieved solely from satellites' vegetation indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helman, David; Lensky, Itamar; Givati, Amir

    2015-04-01

    We present a simple model to retrieve annual actual evapotranspiration (ETannual) solely from satellites. The model is based on empirical relationships between vegetation indices (NDVI & EVI from MODIS) and ETannual from 16 fluxnet sites. These sites represent a wide range of plant functional types and ETannual. A multiple regression model is applied separately for (a) annuals vegetation systems (i.e., croplands and grasslands), and (b) combined annuals and perennials vegetation systems (i.e., woodlands, forests, savanna and shrublands). It explained 80% of the variance in ETannual for annuals, and 91% for combined annuals and perennials systems. We used this model to retrieve ETannual at 250 m spatial resolution for the Eastern Mediterranean from 2000 to 2013. The models estimates were highly correlated (R = 0.96, N = 7) with ETannual calculated from water catchments balances along the rainfall gradient of Israel. Models estimates were also comparable to the coarser resolution ET products of MSG (LSA-SAF MSG ETA, 3.1 km) and MODIS (MOD16, 1 km) in 148 Eastern Mediterranean basins, with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.79 (N = 148), for both.

  17. FY 2015 Annual Performance Report

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Presents detailed performance results, as measured against the targets established in EPA’s FY 2015 Annual Plan and Budget. The Executive Overview section analyzes key performance outcomes and links to FY 2015 program evaluations.

  18. LLNL NESHAPs 2004 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Harrach, R; Gallegos, G; Peterson, R; Wilson, K; Harrach, R J; Gallegos, G M; Peterson, S R; Wilson, K R

    2005-06-27

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs; Title 40 Code of Federal Regulations [CFR] Part 61, Subpart H). Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities.

  19. Annual Performance Report - FY 2011

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This report summarizes OIG activity, performance, results, and challenges, and provides a financial accounting of resources for fiscal year (FY) 2011 compared to our FY 2011 annual performance targets.

  20. FY 2016 Annual Performance Report

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Presents detailed performance results, as measured against the targets established in EPA’s FY 2016 Annual Plan and Budget. The Executive Overview section analyzes key performance outcomes and links to FY 2016 program evaluations.