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Sample records for model gsam annual

  1. Development of a natural gas systems analysis model (GSAM). Annual report, July 1996--July 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1997-12-31

    The objective of GSAM development is to create a comprehensive, non-proprietary, microcomputer model of the North American natural gas system. GSAM explicitly evaluates the key components of the system, including the resource base, exploration and development practices, extraction technology performance and costs, project economics, transportation costs and restrictions, storage, and end-use. The primary focus is the detailed characterization of the resource base at the reservoir and subreservoir level. This disaggregation allows direct evaluation of alternative extraction technologies based on discretely estimated, individual well productivity, required investments, and associated operating costs. GSAM`s design allows users to evaluate complex interactions of current and alternative future technology and policy initiatives as they directly impact the gas market. GSAM development has been ongoing for the past five years. Key activities completed during the past year are described.

  2. Development of a natural Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM). Annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-01

    Lacking a detailed characterization of the resource base and a comprehensive borehole-to-burnertip evaluation model of the North American natural gas system, past R&D, tax and regulatory policies have been formulated without a full understanding of their likely direct and indirect impacts on future gas supply and demand. The recent disappearance of the deliverability surplus, pipeline deregulation, and current policy debates about regulatory initiatives in taxation, environmental compliance and leasing make the need for a comprehensive gas evaluation system critical. Traditional econometric or highly aggregated energy models are increasingly regarded as unable to incorporate available geologic detail and explicit technology performance and costing algorithms necessary to evaluate resource-technology-economic interactions in a market context. The objective of this research is to create a comprehensive, non-proprietary, microcomputer model of the North American natural gas system. GSAM explicitly evaluates the key components of the natural gas system, including resource base, exploration and development, extraction technology performance and costs, transportation and storage and end use. The primary focus is the detailed characterization of the resource base at the reservoir and sub-reservoir level and the impact of alternative extraction technologies on well productivity and economics. GSAM evaluates the complex interactions of current and alternative future technology and policy initiatives in the context of the evolving gas markets. Scheduled for completion in 1995, a prototype is planned for early 1994. ICF Resources reviewed relevant natural gas upstream, downstream and market models to identify appropriate analytic capabilities to incorporate into GSAM. We have reviewed extraction technologies to better characterize performance and costs in terms of GSAM parameters.

  3. Development of a natural gas systems analysis model (GSAM)

    SciTech Connect

    1999-10-01

    This report provides an overview of the activities to date and schedule for future testing, validation, and authorized enhancements of Natural Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM). The goal of this report is to inform DOE managers of progress in model development and to provide a benchmark for ongoing and future research. Section II of the report provides a detailed discussion on the major GSAM development programs performed and completed during the period of performance, July 1, 1998 to September 30, 1999. Key improvements in the new GSAM version are summarized in Section III. Programmer's guides for GSAM main modules were produced to provide detailed descriptions of all major subroutines and main variables of the computer code. General logical flowcharts of the subroutines are also presented in the guides to provide overall picture of interactions between the subroutines. A standard structure of routine explanation is applied in every programmer's guide. The explanation is started with a brief description or main purpose of the routine, lists of input and output files read and created, and lists of invoked/child and calling/parent routines. In some of the guides, interactions between the routine itself and its parent and child routines are presented in the form of graphical flowchart. The explanation is then proceeded with step by step description of computer code in the subroutine where each step delegates a section of related code. Between steps, if a certain section of code needs further explanation, a Note is inserted with relevant explanation.

  4. Development of a gas systems analysis model (GSAM)

    SciTech Connect

    Godec, M.L.

    1995-04-01

    The objectives of developing a Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM) are to create a comprehensive, non-proprietary, PC based model of domestic gas industry activity. The system is capable of assessing the impacts of various changes in the natural gas system within North America. The individual and collective impacts due to changes in technology and economic conditions are explicitly modeled in GSAM. Major gas resources are all modeled, including conventional, tight, Devonian Shale, coalbed methane, and low-quality gas sources. The modeling system asseses all key components of the gas industry, including available resources, exploration, drilling, completion, production, and processing practices, both for now and in the future. The model similarly assesses the distribution, storage, and utilization of natural gas in a dynamic market-based analytical structure. GSAM is designed to provide METC managers with a tool to project the impacts of future research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) benefits in order to determine priorities in a rapidly changing, market-driven gas industry.

  5. DEVELOPMENT OF A NATURAL GAS SYSTEMS ANALYSIS MODEL (GSAM) VOLUME I - SUMMARY REPORT VOLUME II - USER'S GUIDE VOLUME IIIA - RP PROGRAMMER'S GUIDE VOLUME IIIB - SRPM PROGRAMMER'S GUIDE VOLUME IIIC - E&P PROGRAMMER'S GUIDE VOLUME IIID - D&I PROGRAMMER'S GUIDE

    SciTech Connect

    Unknown

    2001-02-01

    This report summarizes work completed on DOE Contract DE-AC21-92MC28138, Development of a Natural Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM). The products developed under this project directly support the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in carrying out its natural gas R&D mission. The objective of this research effort has been to create a comprehensive, non-proprietary, microcomputer model of the North American natural gas market. GSAM has been developed to explicitly evaluate components of the natural gas system, including the entire in-place gas resource base, exploration and development technologies, extraction technology and performance parameters, transportation and storage factors, and end-use demand issues. The system has been fully tested and calibrated and has been used for multiple natural gas metrics analyses at NETL in which metric associated with NETL natural gas upstream R&D technologies and strategies under the direction of NETL has been evaluated. NETL's Natural Gas Strategic Plan requires that R&D activities be evaluated for their ability to provide adequate supplies of reasonably priced natural gas. GSAM provides the capability to assess potential and on-going R&D projects using a full fuel cycle, cost-benefit approach. This method yields realistic, market-based assessments of benefits and costs of alternative or related technology advances. GSAM is capable of estimating both technical and commercial successes, quantifying the potential benefits to the market, as well as to other related research. GSAM, therefore, represents an integration of research activities and a method for planning and prioritizing efforts to maximize benefits and minimize costs. Without an analytical tool like GSAM, NETL natural gas upstream R&D activities cannot be appropriately ranked or focused on the most important aspects of natural gas extraction efforts or utilization considerations.

  6. A generalized approach to the modeling of the species-area relationship.

    PubMed

    Conceição, Katiane Silva; Ulrich, Werner; Diniz, Carlos Alberto Ribeiro; Rodrigues, Francisco Aparecido; de Andrade, Marinho Gomes

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a statistical generalized species-area model (GSAM) to represent various patterns of species-area relationship (SAR), which is one of the fundamental patterns in ecology. The approach enables the generalization of many preliminary models, as power-curve model, which is commonly used to mathematically describe the SAR. The GSAM is applied to simulated data set of species diversity in areas of different sizes and a real-world data of insects of Hymenoptera order has been modeled. We show that the GSAM enables the identification of the best statistical model and estimates the number of species according to the area. PMID:25171161

  7. The GSAM software: A global search algorithm of minima exploration for the investigation of low lying isomers of clusters

    SciTech Connect

    Marchal, Rémi; Carbonnière, Philippe; Pouchan, Claude

    2015-01-22

    The study of atomic clusters has become an increasingly active area of research in the recent years because of the fundamental interest in studying a completely new area that can bridge the gap between atomic and solid state physics. Due to their specific properties, such compounds are of great interest in the field of nanotechnology [1,2]. Here, we would present our GSAM algorithm based on a DFT exploration of the PES to find the low lying isomers of such compounds. This algorithm includes the generation of an intial set of structure from which the most relevant are selected. Moreover, an optimization process, called raking optimization, able to discard step by step all the non physically reasonnable configurations have been implemented to reduce the computational cost of this algorithm. Structural properties of Ga{sub n}Asm clusters will be presented as an illustration of the method.

  8. Theory, Modeling and Simulation Annual Report 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, David A.; Garrett, Bruce C.; Straatsma, Tp; Jones, Donald R.; Studham, Ronald S.; Harrison, Robert J.; Nichols, Jeffrey A.

    2001-11-01

    This annual report describes the 2000 research accomplishments for the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation (TM&S) directorate, one of the six research organizations in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). EMSL is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national scientific user facility and is the centerpiece of the DOE commitment to providing world-class experimental, theoretical, and computational capabilities for solving the nation's environmental problems.

  9. Theory, Modeling and Simulation Annual Report 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, David A; Garrett, Bruce C; Straatsma, TP; Jones, Donald R; Studham, Scott; Harrison, Robert J; Nichols, Jeffrey A

    2001-11-01

    This annual report describes the 2000 research accomplishments for the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation (TM and S) directorate, one of the six research organizations in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). EMSL is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national scientific user facility and is the centerpiece of the DOE commitment to providing world-class experimental, theoretical, and computational capabilities for solving the nation's environmental problems.

  10. A Distributed Platform for Global-Scale Agent-Based Models of Disease Transmission

    PubMed Central

    Parker, Jon; Epstein, Joshua M.

    2013-01-01

    The Global-Scale Agent Model (GSAM) is presented. The GSAM is a high-performance distributed platform for agent-based epidemic modeling capable of simulating a disease outbreak in a population of several billion agents. It is unprecedented in its scale, its speed, and its use of Java. Solutions to multiple challenges inherent in distributing massive agent-based models are presented. Communication, synchronization, and memory usage are among the topics covered in detail. The memory usage discussion is Java specific. However, the communication and synchronization discussions apply broadly. We provide benchmarks illustrating the GSAM’s speed and scalability. PMID:24465120

  11. A stochastic model for annual reproductive success.

    PubMed

    Kendall, Bruce E; Wittmann, Marion E

    2010-04-01

    Demographic stochasticity can have large effects on the dynamics of small populations as well as on the persistence of rare genotypes and lineages. Survival is sensibly modeled as a binomial process, but annual reproductive success (ARS) is more complex and general models for demographic stochasticity do not exist. Here we introduce a stochastic model framework for ARS and illustrate some of its properties. We model a sequence of stochastic events: nest completion, the number of eggs or neonates produced, nest predation, and the survival of individual offspring to independence. We also allow multiple nesting attempts within a breeding season. Most of these components can be described by Bernoulli or binomial processes; the exception is the distribution of offspring number. Using clutch and litter size distributions from 53 vertebrate species, we demonstrate that among-individual variability in offspring number can usually be described by the generalized Poisson distribution. Our model framework allows the demographic variance to be calculated from underlying biological processes and can easily be linked to models of environmental stochasticity or selection because of its parametric structure. In addition, it reveals that the distributions of ARS are often multimodal and skewed, with implications for extinction risk and evolution in small populations. PMID:20163244

  12. Annual modulation experiments, galactic models and WIMPs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudson, Robert G.

    Our task in the paper is to examine some recent experiments (in the period 1996-2002) bearing on the issue of whether there is dark matter in the universe in the form of neutralino WIMPs (weakly interacting massive particles). Our main focus is an experiment performed by the DAMA group that claims to have found an 'annual modulation signature' for the WIMP. DAMA's result has been hotly contested by two other groups, EDELWEISS and CDMS, and we study the details of the experiments performed by all three groups. Our goal is to investigate the philosophic and sociological implications of this controversy. Particularly, using an innovative theoretical strategy suggested by (Copi, C. and L. M. Krauss (2003). Comparing interaction rate detectors for weakly interacting massive particles with annual modulation detectors. Physical Review D, 67, 103 507), we suggest a new way of resolving discordant experimental data (extending a previous analysis by (Franklin, A. (2002). Selectivity and discord. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press). In addition, we are in a position to contribute substantively to the debate between realists and constructive empiricists. Finally, from a sociological standpoint, we remark that DAMA's work has been valuable in mobilizing other research teams and providing them with a critical focus.

  13. Theory, modeling, and simulation annual report, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    This report briefly discusses research on the following topics: development of electronic structure methods; modeling molecular processes in clusters; modeling molecular processes in solution; modeling molecular processes in separations chemistry; modeling interfacial molecular processes; modeling molecular processes in the atmosphere; methods for periodic calculations on solids; chemistry and physics of minerals; graphical user interfaces for computational chemistry codes; visualization and analysis of molecular simulations; integrated computational chemistry environment; and benchmark computations.

  14. A Markov switching model for annual hydrologic time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akıntuǧ, B.; Rasmussen, P. F.

    2005-09-01

    This paper investigates the properties of Markov switching (MS) models (also known as hidden Markov models) for generating annual time series. This type of model has been used in a number of recent studies in the water resources literature. The model considered here assumes that climate is switching between M states and that the state sequence can be described by a Markov chain. Observations are assumed to be drawn from a normal distribution whose parameters depend on the state variable. We present the stochastic properties of this class of models along with procedures for model identification and parameter estimation. Although, at a first glance, MS models appear to be quite different from ARMA models, we show that it is possible to find an ARMA model that has the same autocorrelation function and the same marginal distribution as any given MS model. Hence, despite the difference in model structure, there are strong similarities between MS and ARMA models. MS and ARMA models are applied to the time series of mean annual discharge of the Niagara River. Although it is difficult to draw any general conclusion from a single case study, it appears that MS models (and ARMA models derived from MS models) generally have stronger autocorrelation at higher lags than ARMA models estimated by conventional maximum likelihood. This may be an important property if the purpose of the study is the analysis of multiyear droughts.

  15. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE`s research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies.

  16. A full annual cycle modeling framework for American black ducks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, Orin J.; McGowan, Conor; Devers, Patrick K.; Brook, Rodney W.; Huang, Min; Jones, Malcom; McAuley, Daniel G.; Zimmerman, Guthrie

    2016-01-01

    American black ducks (Anas rubripes) are a harvested, international migratory waterfowl species in eastern North America. Despite an extended period of restrictive harvest regulations, the black duck population is still below the population goal identified in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP). It has been hypothesized that density-dependent factors restrict population growth in the black duck population and that habitat management (increases, improvements, etc.) may be a key component of growing black duck populations and reaching the prescribed NAWMP population goal. Using banding data from 1951 to 2011 and breeding population survey data from 1990 to 2014, we developed a full annual cycle population model for the American black duck. This model uses the seven management units as set by the Black Duck Joint Venture, allows movement into and out of each unit during each season, and models survival and fecundity for each region separately. We compare model population trajectories with observed population data and abundance estimates from the breeding season counts to show the accuracy of this full annual cycle model. With this model, we then show how to simulate the effects of habitat management on the continental black duck population.

  17. Modeling annual flooding in the Logone floodplain in Cameroon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, A.; Najafi, M. R.; Durand, M. T.; Mark, B. G.; Moritz, M.; Shastry, A.; Laborde, S.; Phang, S. C.; Hamilton, I.; Ningchuan, X.; Neal, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Logone floodplain (LFP), part of the Lake Chad Basin, is flooded annually by water from the Logone River and its branches during September and October. The inundated LFP is highly productive, providing support for fishing, pastoralism, and agriculture. In the last few decades, droughts, dam construction, manmade fishing canals (MFCs), and irrigation development have caused significant shifts in the LFP's flooding regime. Recently, MFCs have proliferated as consequence of ecological and manmade changes in the LFP. Future impacts of these modifications may parallel projected, although still uncertain, regional hydroclimatic changes derived from global warming. In order to understand feedbacks between human actions and hydroclimate, we are developing an integrated model that links hydroclimate, hydraulics, and human dynamics such as fishermen and pastoralist behavior. Here we present one component of this research focused on simulating the annual flooding dynamics of the LFP using LISFLOOD-FP, a raster-based numerical model that includes sub-grid parameterization of MFCs. Our goal is to evaluate the model's skill to simulate spatiotemporal features of the inundated LFP using a minimum amount of input data, such as discontinuous time series of river discharge and satellite-derived rainfall. Our simulations using three different spatial resolutions (1, 0.5, and 0.25-km grid-cell) suggest that the model is insensitive to pixel size, showing no significant differences between simulated volume, discharge, flooded area, and flood seasonality. Despite the model is able to simulate flow, with a Nash Sutcliff efficiency of 0.81, we find some significant spatial mismatch between observed and simulated inundation areas. In addition, results indicate that overbank flow provides more annual flood volume than rainfall. We discuss the impact of topographic and climatic input data on these results, as well as the potential to simulate the effects of MFCs on the local hydrology.

  18. Modeling annual mallard production in the prairie-parkland region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, M.W.

    2000-01-01

    Biologists have proposed several environmental factors that might influence production of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) nesting in the prairie-parkland region of the United States and Canada. These factors include precipitation, cold spring temperatures, wetland abundance, and upland breeding habitat. I used long-term historical data sets of climate, wetland numbers, agricultural land use, and size of breeding mallard populations in multiple regression analyses to model annual indices of mallard production. Models were constructed at 2 scales: a continental scale that encompassed most of the mid-continental breeding range of mallards and a stratum-level scale that included 23 portions of that same breeding range. The production index at the continental scale was the estimated age ratio of mid-continental mallards in early fall; at the stratum scale my production index was the estimated number of broods of all duck species within an aerial survey stratum. Size of breeding mallard populations in May, and pond numbers in May and July, best modeled production at the continental scale. Variables that best modeled production at the stratum scale differed by region. Crop variables tended to appear more in models for western Canadian strata; pond variables predominated in models for United States strata; and spring temperature and pond variables dominated models for eastern Canadian strata. An index of cold spring temperatures appeared in 4 of 6 models for aspen parkland strata, and in only 1 of 11 models for strata dominated by prairie. Stratum-level models suggest that regional factors influencing mallard production are not evident at a larger scale. Testing these potential factors in a manipulative fashion would improve our understanding of mallard population dynamics, improving our ability to manage the mid-continental mallard population.

  19. Regional Annual Extreme Precipitation Modeling: Choose Your Parents Wisely.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fennessey, N. M.

    2001-05-01

    A great deal of research has been invested in developing a better understanding of the characteristics of and descriptive models of annual extreme precipitation. Some advocate the analysis of the annual maximum series (AMS) others advocate the analysis of partial duration series (PDS). The former is easy to generate, the latter provides more information, which is advantageous for better estimation. Both schools of thought seem to agree that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a good choice for the annual extreme precipitation event. Recently published work suggests that the generalized Pareto distribution (GPA) is a good choice for generating a PDS because of its analytical link with the GEV. There are, however, two well-recognized disadvantages to using the GPA for this purpose. The analyst must specify both a sampling threshold/lower-bound and a minimum time between peaks to create an acceptable PDS. Using L-moment diagrams and regional frequency analysis, a paper presented at the 1998 Spring AGU meeting suggests that daily precipitation observed in the northeast U.S. is much better described by a two parameter gamma distribution than the three parameter GPA. The 116 NOAA observatories used have periods-of-record which range from 15 to 60 complete years of no missing daily data. The observed AMS in this region is well described by a GEV. In the present work, using the L-moment estimators developed from these daily observations, serially independent gamma distributed, three parameter Pearson Type III (PE3) distributed and three parameter GPA distributed quantiles are generated for a daily period-of-record equal to that of each parent NOAA observatory. No efforts are made to specify a GPA lower bound, but many synthetic days of rainfall have negative values. The maximum value within each 365-day simulation year is retained to create three synthetic AMS, each with a different parent. L-moment diagrams of the observed, gamma day, PE3 day and GPA day

  20. Annual Perspectives in Mathematics Education 2016: Mathematical Modeling and Modeling Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hirsch, Christian R., Ed.; McDuffie, Amy Roth, Ed.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical modeling plays an increasingly important role both in real-life applications--in engineering, business, the social sciences, climate study, advanced design, and more--and within mathematics education itself. This 2016 volume of "Annual Perspectives in Mathematics Education" ("APME") focuses on this key topic from a…

  1. An empirical model for estimating annual consumption by freshwater fish populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Liao, H.; Pierce, C.L.; Larscheid, J.G.

    2005-01-01

    Population consumption is an important process linking predator populations to their prey resources. Simple tools are needed to enable fisheries managers to estimate population consumption. We assembled 74 individual estimates of annual consumption by freshwater fish populations and their mean annual population size, 41 of which also included estimates of mean annual biomass. The data set included 14 freshwater fish species from 10 different bodies of water. From this data set we developed two simple linear regression models predicting annual population consumption. Log-transformed population size explained 94% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. Log-transformed biomass explained 98% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. We quantified the accuracy of our regressions and three alternative consumption models as the mean percent difference from observed (bioenergetics-derived) estimates in a test data set. Predictions from our population-size regression matched observed consumption estimates poorly (mean percent difference = 222%). Predictions from our biomass regression matched observed consumption reasonably well (mean percent difference = 24%). The biomass regression was superior to an alternative model, similar in complexity, and comparable to two alternative models that were more complex and difficult to apply. Our biomass regression model, log10(consumption) = 0.5442 + 0.9962??log10(biomass), will be a useful tool for fishery managers, enabling them to make reasonably accurate annual population consumption predictions from mean annual biomass estimates. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

  2. Model of annual plants dynamics with facilitation and competition.

    PubMed

    Droz, Michel; Pękalski, Andrzej

    2013-10-21

    An individual-based model describing the dynamics of one type of annual plants is presented. We use Monte Carlo simulations where each plant has its own history and the interactions among plants are between nearest neighbours. The character of the interaction (positive or negative) depends on local conditions. The plants compete for two external resources-water and light. The amount of water and/or light a plant receives depends on the external factor but also on local arrangement. Survival, growth and seed production of plants are determined by how well their demands for the resources are met. The survival and seeds production tests have a probabilistic character, which makes the dynamics more realistic than by using a deterministic approach. There is a non-linear coupling between the external supplies. Water evaporates from the soil at a rate depending on constant evaporation rate, local conditions and the amount of light. We examine the dynamics of the plant population along two environmental gradients, allowing also for surplus of water and/or light. We show that the largest number of plants is when the demands for both resources are equal to the supplies. We estimate also the role of evaporation and we find that it depends on the situation. It could be negative, but sometimes it has a positive character. We show that the link between the type of interaction (positive or negative) and external conditions has a complex character. In general in favourable environment plants have a stronger tendency for competitive interactions, leading to mostly isolated plants. When the conditions are getting more difficult, cooperation becomes the dominant type of interactions and the plants grow in clusters. The type of plants-sun-loving or shade tolerating, plays also an important role.

  3. Model of annual plants dynamics with facilitation and competition.

    PubMed

    Droz, Michel; Pękalski, Andrzej

    2013-10-21

    An individual-based model describing the dynamics of one type of annual plants is presented. We use Monte Carlo simulations where each plant has its own history and the interactions among plants are between nearest neighbours. The character of the interaction (positive or negative) depends on local conditions. The plants compete for two external resources-water and light. The amount of water and/or light a plant receives depends on the external factor but also on local arrangement. Survival, growth and seed production of plants are determined by how well their demands for the resources are met. The survival and seeds production tests have a probabilistic character, which makes the dynamics more realistic than by using a deterministic approach. There is a non-linear coupling between the external supplies. Water evaporates from the soil at a rate depending on constant evaporation rate, local conditions and the amount of light. We examine the dynamics of the plant population along two environmental gradients, allowing also for surplus of water and/or light. We show that the largest number of plants is when the demands for both resources are equal to the supplies. We estimate also the role of evaporation and we find that it depends on the situation. It could be negative, but sometimes it has a positive character. We show that the link between the type of interaction (positive or negative) and external conditions has a complex character. In general in favourable environment plants have a stronger tendency for competitive interactions, leading to mostly isolated plants. When the conditions are getting more difficult, cooperation becomes the dominant type of interactions and the plants grow in clusters. The type of plants-sun-loving or shade tolerating, plays also an important role. PMID:23791851

  4. A model of annual orographic precipitation and acid deposition and its application to Snowdonia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dore, A. J.; Mousavi-Baygi, M.; Smith, R. I.; Hall, J.; Fowler, D.; Choularton, T. W.

    A model of orographic rainfall has been used to estimate annual precipitation and acid wet deposition at a 1 km resolution for the Snowdonia mountains in North Wales. Comparison with measurements and existing rainfall maps of the UK showed that this approach was successful in reproducing the high annual precipitation peaks of up to 4000 mm annually that occur in this area. At 13 out of the 17 measurement sites, the modelled annual precipitation differed from long-term annual average measurements by no more than 25%. The process model was compared with a procedure used to map wet deposition of pollutants across the United Kingdom at a 5 km resolution. Significant differences between the two deposition data sets were apparent. With the mapping procedure, maximum wet deposition was correlated to areas of high precipitation in the northeast of the domain. With the process model, however, maximum deposition was observed over the smaller hills in the southwest of the domain, the first orographic barrier reached by the air mass in south-westerly flow. High exceedances of critical loads for acidic deposition to soils were calculated using the mapping procedure and found to be due to the high annual precipitation in Snowdonia. The seeder-feeder model represents a useful tool, which could be used for estimating annual wet deposition of pollutants and exceedance of critical loads in hill areas at a much finer resolution than the national transport models and deposition mapping routines that are commonly employed in the United Kingdom.

  5. Incorporating Results of Avian Toxicity Tests into a Model of Annual Reproductive Success

    EPA Science Inventory

    This manuscript presents a modeling approach for translating results from laboratory avian reproduction tests into an estimate of pesticide-caused change in the annual reproductive success of birds, also known as fecundity rate.

  6. 78 FR 59662 - Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-27

    ...) Citizen science, crowd sourcing, and social media; (2) environmental evaluation and remediation; (3... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office ] DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling...

  7. Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

  8. An annual model of SSM/I radiobrightness for dry soil

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liou, Yuei-An; England, A. W.

    1992-01-01

    An annual model is presented of the temperature structure within a homogeneous, dry soil halfspace that is subject to both diurnal and annual insolation, radiant heating from the atmosphere, sensible heat exchange with the atmosphere, and radiant cooling. The thermal constitutive properties of the soil are assumed to be constant so that the heat flow equation can be solved analytically. For computational economy, a variable time interval Laplace transform method is developed to predict the temperature.

  9. How regional climate models reproduce annual cycle and what we can learn from it

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halenka, Tomas; Skalak, Petr; Huszar, Peter; Belda, Michal

    2010-05-01

    The annual cycle is analyzed by means of Taylor score to assess the ability to reproduce annual cycle in regional climate models (RCMs) used in EC FP6 project ENSEMBLES. The objective of this effort is to provide rather simple, but still convenient method with one figure output for further weighting of the RCMs ensemble simulations. The application of Taylor score directly to the original results averaged to monthly time series for individual so-called PRUDENCE regions can provide first guess of this annual cycle performance, especially for temperature where annual cycle is a main source of variation and correlation, although for precipitation there are clear deficiencies in this assumption. More comprehensive technique applying multiple linear regression analysis on the time series to extract a pure annual cycle is used to assess the differences in the both method of evaluation. It is shown that the results of both methods coincide reasonably well. However, as the original technique provides basically the overall performance of the model, the quality of annual cycle description in the models can be one of the important factors affecting its precision on monthly scale.

  10. Model parameter uncertainty analysis for an annual field-scale P loss model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolster, Carl H.; Vadas, Peter A.; Boykin, Debbie

    2016-08-01

    Phosphorous (P) fate and transport models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. Because all models are simplifications of complex systems, there will exist an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with their predictions. It is therefore important that efforts be directed at identifying, quantifying, and communicating the different sources of model uncertainties. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model. Our analysis included calculating parameter uncertainties and confidence and prediction intervals for five internal regression equations in APLE. We also estimated uncertainties of the model input variables based on values reported in the literature. We then predicted P loss for a suite of fields under different management and climatic conditions while accounting for uncertainties in the model parameters and inputs and compared the relative contributions of these two sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty associated with predictions of P loss. Both the overall magnitude of the prediction uncertainties and the relative contributions of the two sources of uncertainty varied depending on management practices and field characteristics. This was due to differences in the number of model input variables and the uncertainties in the regression equations associated with each P loss pathway. Inspection of the uncertainties in the five regression equations brought attention to a previously unrecognized limitation with the equation used to partition surface-applied fertilizer P between leaching and runoff losses. As a result, an alternate equation was identified that provided similar predictions with much less uncertainty. Our results demonstrate how a thorough uncertainty and model residual analysis can be used to identify limitations with a model. Such insight can then be used to guide future data collection and model

  11. Differences between seasonal and mean annual energy balance model calculations of climate and climate sensitivity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    North, G. R.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.

    1979-01-01

    The paper extends a simple Budyko-Sellers mean annual energy balance climate model with diffusive transport to include a seasonal cycle. In the model the latitudinal distribution of the zonal average surface temperature is represented by Legendre polynomials and its time-dependence by a Fourier sine-cosine series, and it has three parameters adjusted so that the observed amplitudes of the Northern Hemisphere zonal mean surface temperature are recovered. The seasonal model is used to reveal how the annual mean climate and the sensitivity to changes in incident radiation differ from the predictions obtained with the corresponding mean annual model. The distribution of the incident solar radiation in the models is shown to be insensitive to changes in the eccentricity and the longitude of perihelion and sensitive only to changes in the obliquity of the earth, and for past orbital changes both the seasonal and the mean annual model fail to produce glacial advances of the magnitude that are thought to have occurred.

  12. CO2 annual and semiannual cycles from multiple satellite retrievals and models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Xun; Crisp, David; Olsen, Edward T.; Kulawik, Susan S.; Miller, Charles E.; Pagano, Thomas S.; Liang, Maochang; Yung, Yuk L.

    2016-02-01

    Satellite CO2 retrievals from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and in situ measurements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA-ESRL) Surface CO2 and Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) are utilized to explore the CO2 variability at different altitudes. A multiple regression method is used to calculate the CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes from different data sets. The CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes for GOSAT XCO2 and TCCON XCO2 are consistent but smaller than those seen in the NOAA-ESRL surface data. The CO2 annual and semiannual cycles are smallest in the AIRS midtropospheric CO2 compared with other data sets in the Northern Hemisphere. The amplitudes for the CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle from GOSAT, TES, and AIRS CO2 are small and comparable to each other in the Southern Hemisphere. Similar regression analysis is applied to the Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers-2 and CarbonTracker model CO2. The convolved model CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes are similar to those from the satellite CO2 retrievals, although the models tend to underestimate the CO2 seasonal cycle amplitudes in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and underestimate the CO2 semiannual cycle amplitudes in the high latitudes. These results can be used to better understand the vertical structures for the CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle and help identify deficiencies in the models, which are very important for the carbon budget study.

  13. A hybrid model to simulate the annual runoff of the Kaidu River in northwest China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Jianhua; Chen, Yaning; Bai, Ling; Xu, Yiwen

    2016-04-01

    Fluctuant and complicated hydrological processes can result in the uncertainty of runoff forecasting. Thus, it is necessary to apply the multi-method integrated modeling approaches to simulate runoff. Integrating the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), the back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) and the nonlinear regression equation, we put forward a hybrid model to simulate the annual runoff (AR) of the Kaidu River in northwest China. We also validate the simulated effects by using the coefficient of determination (R2) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) based on the observed data from 1960 to 2012 at the Dashankou hydrological station. The average absolute and relative errors show the high simulation accuracy of the hybrid model. R2 and AIC both illustrate that the hybrid model has a much better performance than the single BPANN. The hybrid model and integrated approach elicited by this study can be applied to simulate the annual runoff of similar rivers in northwest China.

  14. Application of nonstationary generalized logistic models for analyzing the annual maximum rainfall data in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S.; Joo, K.; Kim, H.; Heo, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, the various approaches for the nonstationary frequency analysis have been studied since the effect of climate change was widely recognized for hydrologic data. Most nonstationary studies proposed the nonstationary general extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto models for the annual maximum and POT (peak-over-threshold) data, respectively. However, various alternatives is needed to analyze the nonstationary hydrologic data because of the complicated influence of climate change. This study proposed the nonstationary generalized logistic models containing time-dependent location and scale parameters. These models contain only or both nonstationary location and scale parameters that change linearly over time. The parameters are estimated using the method of maximum likelihood based on the Newton-Raphson method. In addition, the proposed models apply to the annual maximum rainfall data of Korea in order to evaluate the applicability of the proposed models.

  15. Pataha [Creek] Model Watershed : 1997 Habitat Projects : Annual Progress Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Bartels, Duane

    1998-10-28

    The projects outlined in detail on the attached project reports are a few of the many projects implemented in the Pataha Creek Model Watershed since it was selected as a model in 1993. Up until this year, demonstration sites using riparian fencing, off site watering facilities, tree and shrub plantings and upland conservation practices were used for information and education and was the main focus of the implementation phase of the watershed plan. These practices are the main focus of the watershed plan to reduce the majority of the sediment entering the stream.

  16. EFFECT OF RESIDENCE TIME ON ANNUAL EXPORT AND DENITRIFICATION OF NITROGEN IN ESTUARIES: A MODEL ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A simple model of annual average response of an estuary to mean nitrogen loading rate and freshwater residence time was developed and tested. It uses nitrogen inputs from land, deposition from the atmosphere, and first-order calculations of internal loss rate and export to perfor...

  17. AN ANNUAL EVALUATION OF THE 2005 RELEASE OF MODELS-3 CMAQ

    EPA Science Inventory

    An annual operation performance evaluation of the 2005 release of Models-3 CMAQ v4.5 has been performed. The poster presented results from the winter and summer season for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon, organic carbon, PM2.5 mass and AQS 8-hr maximum ozone. Stati...

  18. Methods for testing transport models. Second year annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Singer, C.; Cox, D.

    1991-11-14

    Substantial progress has been made over the past year on six aspects of the work supported by this grant. As a result, we have in hand for the first time a fairly complete set of transport models and improved statistical methods for testing them against large databases. We also have initial results of such tests. These results indicate that careful application of presently available transport theories can reasonably well produce a remarkably wide variety of tokamak data.

  19. Genome-wide investigation reveals high evolutionary rates in annual model plants

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Rates of molecular evolution vary widely among species. While significant deviations from molecular clock have been found in many taxa, effects of life histories on molecular evolution are not fully understood. In plants, annual/perennial life history traits have long been suspected to influence the evolutionary rates at the molecular level. To date, however, the number of genes investigated on this subject is limited and the conclusions are mixed. To evaluate the possible heterogeneity in evolutionary rates between annual and perennial plants at the genomic level, we investigated 85 nuclear housekeeping genes, 10 non-housekeeping families, and 34 chloroplast genes using the genomic data from model plants including Arabidopsis thaliana and Medicago truncatula for annuals and grape (Vitis vinifera) and popular (Populus trichocarpa) for perennials. Results According to the cross-comparisons among the four species, 74-82% of the nuclear genes and 71-97% of the chloroplast genes suggested higher rates of molecular evolution in the two annuals than those in the two perennials. The significant heterogeneity in evolutionary rate between annuals and perennials was consistently found both in nonsynonymous sites and synonymous sites. While a linear correlation of evolutionary rates in orthologous genes between species was observed in nonsynonymous sites, the correlation was weak or invisible in synonymous sites. This tendency was clearer in nuclear genes than in chloroplast genes, in which the overall evolutionary rate was small. The slope of the regression line was consistently lower than unity, further confirming the higher evolutionary rate in annuals at the genomic level. Conclusions The higher evolutionary rate in annuals than in perennials appears to be a universal phenomenon both in nuclear and chloroplast genomes in the four dicot model plants we investigated. Therefore, such heterogeneity in evolutionary rate should result from factors that have genome

  20. SP-100 operational life model. Fiscal Year 1990 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Ewell, R.; Awaya, H.

    1990-12-14

    This report covers the initial year`s effort in the development of an Operational Life Model (OLM) for the SP-100 Space Reactor Power System. The initial step undertaken in developing the OLM was to review all available documentation from GE on their plans for the OLM and on the degradation and failure mechanisms envisioned for the SP-100. In addition, the DEGRA code developed at JPL, which modelled the degradation of the General Purpose Heat Source based Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG), was reviewed. Based on the review of the degradation and failure mechanisms, a list of the most pertinent degradation effects along with their key degradation mechanisms was compiled. This was done as a way of separating the mechanisms from the effects and allowing all of the effects to be incorporated into the OLM. The emphasis was on parameters which will tend to change performance as a function of time and not on those that are simply failures without any prior degradation.

  1. Hydroclimatology of dual-peak annual cholera incidence: Insights from a spatially explicit model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-03-01

    Cholera incidence in some regions of the Indian subcontinent may exhibit two annual peaks although the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (e.g., sea surface temperature, zooplankton abundance, river discharge) peak once per year during the summer. An empirical hydroclimatological explanation relating cholera transmission to river flows and to the disease spatial spreading has been recently proposed. We specifically support and substantiate mechanistically such hypothesis by means of a spatially explicit model of cholera transmission. Our framework directly accounts for the role of a model river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for spatial and temporal annual fluctuations of river flows. The model is forced by seasonal environmental drivers, namely river flow, temperature and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal environment, a proxy for Vibrio cholerae concentration. Our results show that these drivers may suffice to generate dual-peak cholera prevalence patterns for proper combinations of timescales involved in pathogen transport, hydrologic variability and disease unfolding. The model explains the possible occurrence of spatial patterns of cholera incidence characterized by a spring peak confined to coastal areas and a fall peak involving inland regions. Our modeling framework suggests insights on how environmental drivers concert the generation of complex spatiotemporal infections and proposes an explanation for the different cholera patterns (dual or single annual peaks) exhibited by regions that share similar hydroclimatological forcings.

  2. Annual cost of antiretroviral therapy among three service delivery models in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Vu, Lung; Waliggo, Samuel; Zieman, Brady; Jani, Nrupa; Buzaalirwa, Lydia; Okoboi, Stephen; Okal, Jerry; Borse, Nagesh N; Kalibala, Samuel

    2016-01-01

    Introduction In response to the increasing burden of HIV, the Ugandan government has employed different service delivery models since 2004 that aim to reduce costs and remove barriers to accessing HIV care. These models include community-based approaches to delivering antiretroviral therapy (ART) and delegating tasks to lower-level health workers. This study aimed to provide data on annual ART cost per client among three different service delivery models in Uganda. Methods Costing data for the entire year 2012 were retrospectively collected as part of a larger task-shifting study conducted in three organizations in Uganda: Kitovu Mobile (KM), the AIDS Support Organisation (TASO) and Uganda Cares (UC). A standard cost data capture tool was developed and used to retrospectively collect cost information regarding antiretroviral (ARV) drugs and non-ARV drugs, ART-related lab tests, personnel and administrative costs. A random sample of four TASO centres (out of 11), four UC clinics (out of 29) and all KM outreach units were selected for the study. Results Cost varied across sites within each organization as well as across the three organizations. In addition, the number of annual ART visits was more frequent in rural areas and through KM (the community distribution model), which played a major part in the overall annual ART cost. The annual cost per client (in USD) was $404 for KM, $332 for TASO and $257 for UC. These estimates were lower than previous analyses in Uganda or the region compared to data from 2001 to 2009, but comparable with recent estimates using data from 2010 to 2013. ARVs accounted for the majority of the total cost, followed by personnel and operational costs. Conclusions The study provides updated data on annual cost per ART visit for three service delivery models in Uganda. These data will be vital for in-country budgetary efforts to ensure that universal access to ART, as called for in the 2015 World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, is

  3. Annual Greenland accumulation derived from airborne radar and comparisons to modeled and in situ data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koenig, L.; Ivanoff, A.; Alexander, P. M.; MacGregor, J. A.; Cullather, R. I.; Nowicki, S.

    2015-12-01

    Mass loss across the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has accelerated in recent decades and recently a fundamental change in the nature of this mass loss has begun. The dominant GrIS mass-loss process has switched from ice dynamics to surface mass balance (SMB) processes, including melt generation and runoff. This recent shift further emphasizes the need to monitor and constrain SMB, which, across most of the GrIS, is dominated by accumulation. High resolution, near-surface radar data have shown good fidelity at mapping spatial patterns of accumulation to validate model outputs. To better constrain accumulation over the GrIS, we derive annual accumulation rates using NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) Snow Radar data collected from 2009 through 2012. Accumulation is calculated using the radar-determined depth to an annual layer and the local snow/firn density profile. Up to 30 years of annual stratigraphy is observed in the interior of the ice sheet, near Summit Station, while only the past year is detectable in the ablation zone around the perimeter of the ice sheet. Annual layering is traced using a semi-automatic algorithm and mapped across large areas (tens of thousands of line kilometers). A combined measured and modeled density profile is used to convert the annual stratigraphy into accumulation. Modeled density profiles from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) model are shown to be less than half of in situ observations in the top 1 m of snow/firn and are, therefore, replaced with in situ measurements. Using a compilation of in situ measurements, the mean GrIS snow/firn density is found to be ~340 +/- 40 kg/m3 in the top 1 m. Error in the snow density profile represents the largest error in the radar-derived accumulation. The pattern of radar-derived accumulation rate compares well with MAR estimates, although the latter has a mean bias of 4.6 cm water equivalent, a root mean square error of 16.8 cm water equivalent and a correlation coefficient of 0.6 across

  4. CO2 Annual and Semiannual Cycles from Satellite Retrievals and Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, X.; Crisp, D.; Olsen, E. T.; Kulawik, S. S.; Miller, C. E.; Pagano, T. S.; Yung, Y. L.

    2014-12-01

    We have compared satellite CO2 retrievals from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) with in-situ measurements from the Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA-ESRL) Surface CO2 and Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), and utilized zonal means to characterize variability and distribution of CO2. In general, zonally averaged CO2 from the three satellite data sets are consistent with the surface and TCCON XCO2 data. Retrievals of CO2 from the three satellites show more (less) CO2 in the northern hemisphere than that in the southern hemisphere in the northern hemispheric winter (summer) season. The difference between the three satellite CO2 retrievals might be related to the different averaging kernels in the satellites CO2 retrievals. A multiple regression method was used to calculate the CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes from different satellite CO2 retrievals. The CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes are largest at the surface, as seen in the NOAA-ESRL CO2 data sets. The CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes in the GOSAT XCO2, AIRS mid-tropospheric CO2, and TES mid-tropospheric CO2 are smaller compared with those from the surface CO2. Similar regression analysis was applied to the Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers-2 (MOZART-2) and CarbonTracker model CO2. The convolved model CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes are similar to those from the satellite CO2 retrievals, although the model tends to under-estimate the CO2 seasonal cycle amplitudes in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes from the comparison with GOSAT and TES CO2 and underestimate the CO2 semi-annual cycle amplitudes in the high latitudes from the comparison with AIRS CO2. The difference between model and satellite CO2 can be used to identify possible deficiency in the model and improve the model in the future.

  5. Greenland Ice Sheet Annually-resolved Accumulation Rates (1958-2007), a Spatially Calibrated Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgess, E. W.; Forster, R. R.; Box, J. W.; Smith, L. C.; Bromwich, D. H.

    2008-12-01

    The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has responded dramatically to recent temperature increases, making it an important contributor to sea level rise. Accurate predictions of Greenland's future contribution to sea level will require a scrupulous understanding of the GIS system and refining our understanding of accumulation is a critical step towards this goal. The most accurate existing estimates of Greenland accumulation rates are multi-year averages; existing annual estimates contain poorly quantified uncertainties. This project developed a superior Greenland accumulation dataset that is spatially comprehensive, has annual resolution, is calibrated to field observations and contains sound uncertainty estimates. Accumulation output from a 1958- 2007 run of the Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model modified for polar climates (PMM5) was calibrated against 133 firn cores and coastal meteorological stations. PMM5 accumulation rate estimates contained spatially dependent systematic biases that were modeled and removed using spatial interpolation of zonally derived regressions. The calibrated accumulation dataset contains residual uncertainties exhibiting a strong spatial pattern that was modeled to estimate ice-sheet wide uncertainty. No significant 1958-2007 trends in Greenland accumulation are evident. Average annual accumulation rate is estimated at 0.339m.w.e. or 593km3 with an RMSE uncertainty of +/-83 km3 or +/-14%. The accumulation dataset will be made publicly available.

  6. Hydroclimatology of Dual-Peak Annual Cholera Incidence: Insights from a Spatially Explicit Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-12-01

    Cholera incidence in some regions of the Indian subcontinent may exhibit two annual peaks although the main environmental drivers that have been linked to the disease (e.g. sea surface temperature, zooplankton abundance, river discharge) peak once per year during the summer. An empirical hydroclimatological explanation relating cholera transmission to river flows and to the disease spatial spreading has been recently proposed. We specifically support and substantiate mechanistically such hypothesis by means of a spatially explicit model of cholera transmission. Our framework directly accounts for the role of the river network in transporting and redistributing cholera bacteria among human communities as well as for spatial and temporal annual fluctuations of precipitation and river flows. To single out the single out the hydroclimatologic controls on the prevalence patterns in a non-specific geographical context, we first apply the model to Optimal Channel Networks as a general model of hydrological networks. Moreover, we impose a uniform distribution of population. The model is forced by seasonal environmental drivers, namely precipitation, temperature and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal environment, a proxy for Vibrio cholerae concentration. Our results show that these drivers may suffice to generate dual-peak cholera prevalence patterns for proper combinations of timescales involved in pathogen transport, hydrologic variability and disease unfolding. The model explains the possible occurrence of spatial patterns of cholera incidence characterized by a spring peak confined to coastal areas and a fall peak involving inland regions. We then proceed applying the model to the specific settings of Bay of Bengal accounting for the actual river networks (derived from digital terrain map manipulations), the proper distribution of population (estimated from downscaling of census data based on remotely sensed features) and precipitation patterns. Overall our

  7. Hydrological annual hysteresis: functional signature for assessing the consistency of catchment conceptual models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fovet, Ophelie; Laurent, Ruiz; Markus, Hrachowitz; Chantal, Gascuel-Odoux

    2015-04-01

    While most hydrological models reproduce the general flow dynamics, they frequently fail to adequately mimic system internal processes. In particular, the relationship between storage and discharge, which often follows annual hysteretic patterns in shallow hard-rock aquifers, is rarely considered in modelling studies. One main reason is that catchment storage is difficult to measure and another one is that objective functions are usually based on individual variables time series (e.g. the discharge). This reduces the ability of classical procedures to assess the relevance of the conceptual hypotheses associated with models. In this study, the annual hysteric patterns observed between stream flow and water storage is analysed both in the saturated and unsaturated zones of the hillslope and the riparian zone of a headwater catchment in French Brittany (ORE AgrHys). The saturated zone storage was estimated using distributed shallow groundwater levels and the unsaturated zone storage using several moisture profiles. All hysteretic loops were characterized by a hysteresis index. Four conceptual models, previously calibrated and evaluated for the same catchment, were assessed with respect to their ability to reproduce the hysteretic patterns. The observed relationship between stream flow, saturated, and unsaturated storages led to identify four hydrological periods and emphasized a clearly distinct behaviour between riparian and hillslope groundwaters. Although all the tested models were able to produce an annual hysteresis loop between discharge and both saturated and unsaturated storage, integration of a riparian component led to overall improved hysteretic signatures, even if some misrepresentation remained. Such systems-like approach is likely to improve model selection.

  8. Impact of Pilot Light Modeling on the Predicted Annual Performance of Residential Gas Water Heaters: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Maguire, J.; Burch, J.

    2013-08-01

    Modeling residential water heaters with dynamic simulation models can provide accurate estimates of their annual energy consumption, if the units? characteristics and use conditions are known. Most gas storage water heaters (GSWHs) include a standing pilot light. It is generally assumed that the pilot light energy will help make up standby losses and have no impact on the predicted annual energy consumption. However, that is not always the case. The gas input rate and conversion efficiency of a pilot light for a GSWH were determined from laboratory data. The data were used in simulations of a typical GSWH with and without a pilot light, for two cases: 1) the GSWH is used alone; and 2) the GSWH is the second tank in a solar water heating (SWH) system. The sensitivity of wasted pilot light energy to annual hot water use, climate, and installation location was examined. The GSWH used alone in unconditioned space in a hot climate had a slight increase in energy consumption. The GSWH with a pilot light used as a backup to an SWH used up to 80% more auxiliary energy than one without in hot, sunny locations, from increased tank losses.

  9. Annual and seasonal spatial models for nitrogen oxides in Tehran, Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amini, Heresh; Taghavi-Shahri, Seyed-Mahmood; Henderson, Sarah B.; Hosseini, Vahid; Hassankhany, Hossein; Naderi, Maryam; Ahadi, Solmaz; Schindler, Christian; Künzli, Nino; Yunesian, Masud

    2016-09-01

    Very few land use regression (LUR) models have been developed for megacities in low- and middle-income countries, but such models are needed to facilitate epidemiologic research on air pollution. We developed annual and seasonal LUR models for ambient oxides of nitrogen (NO, NO2, and NOX) in the Middle Eastern city of Tehran, Iran, using 2010 data from 23 fixed monitoring stations. A novel systematic algorithm was developed for spatial modeling. The R2 values for the LUR models ranged from 0.69 to 0.78 for NO, 0.64 to 0.75 for NO2, and 0.61 to 0.79 for NOx. The most predictive variables were: distance to the traffic access control zone; distance to primary schools; green space; official areas; bridges; and slope. The annual average concentrations of all pollutants were high, approaching those reported for megacities in Asia. At 1000 randomly-selected locations the correlations between cooler and warmer season estimates were 0.64 for NO, 0.58 for NOX, and 0.30 for NO2. Seasonal differences in spatial patterns of pollution are likely driven by differences in source contributions and meteorology. These models provide a basis for understanding long-term exposures and chronic health effects of air pollution in Tehran, where such research has been limited.

  10. Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.

    2010-01-01

    Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.

  11. Annual and seasonal spatial models for nitrogen oxides in Tehran, Iran

    PubMed Central

    Amini, Heresh; Taghavi-Shahri, Seyed-Mahmood; Henderson, Sarah B.; Hosseini, Vahid; Hassankhany, Hossein; Naderi, Maryam; Ahadi, Solmaz; Schindler, Christian; Künzli, Nino; Yunesian, Masud

    2016-01-01

    Very few land use regression (LUR) models have been developed for megacities in low- and middle-income countries, but such models are needed to facilitate epidemiologic research on air pollution. We developed annual and seasonal LUR models for ambient oxides of nitrogen (NO, NO2, and NOX) in the Middle Eastern city of Tehran, Iran, using 2010 data from 23 fixed monitoring stations. A novel systematic algorithm was developed for spatial modeling. The R2 values for the LUR models ranged from 0.69 to 0.78 for NO, 0.64 to 0.75 for NO2, and 0.61 to 0.79 for NOx. The most predictive variables were: distance to the traffic access control zone; distance to primary schools; green space; official areas; bridges; and slope. The annual average concentrations of all pollutants were high, approaching those reported for megacities in Asia. At 1000 randomly-selected locations the correlations between cooler and warmer season estimates were 0.64 for NO, 0.58 for NOX, and 0.30 for NO2. Seasonal differences in spatial patterns of pollution are likely driven by differences in source contributions and meteorology. These models provide a basis for understanding long-term exposures and chronic health effects of air pollution in Tehran, where such research has been limited. PMID:27622593

  12. Annual and seasonal spatial models for nitrogen oxides in Tehran, Iran.

    PubMed

    Amini, Heresh; Taghavi-Shahri, Seyed-Mahmood; Henderson, Sarah B; Hosseini, Vahid; Hassankhany, Hossein; Naderi, Maryam; Ahadi, Solmaz; Schindler, Christian; Künzli, Nino; Yunesian, Masud

    2016-01-01

    Very few land use regression (LUR) models have been developed for megacities in low- and middle-income countries, but such models are needed to facilitate epidemiologic research on air pollution. We developed annual and seasonal LUR models for ambient oxides of nitrogen (NO, NO2, and NOX) in the Middle Eastern city of Tehran, Iran, using 2010 data from 23 fixed monitoring stations. A novel systematic algorithm was developed for spatial modeling. The R(2) values for the LUR models ranged from 0.69 to 0.78 for NO, 0.64 to 0.75 for NO2, and 0.61 to 0.79 for NOx. The most predictive variables were: distance to the traffic access control zone; distance to primary schools; green space; official areas; bridges; and slope. The annual average concentrations of all pollutants were high, approaching those reported for megacities in Asia. At 1000 randomly-selected locations the correlations between cooler and warmer season estimates were 0.64 for NO, 0.58 for NOX, and 0.30 for NO2. Seasonal differences in spatial patterns of pollution are likely driven by differences in source contributions and meteorology. These models provide a basis for understanding long-term exposures and chronic health effects of air pollution in Tehran, where such research has been limited. PMID:27622593

  13. Annual and seasonal spatial models for nitrogen oxides in Tehran, Iran.

    PubMed

    Amini, Heresh; Taghavi-Shahri, Seyed-Mahmood; Henderson, Sarah B; Hosseini, Vahid; Hassankhany, Hossein; Naderi, Maryam; Ahadi, Solmaz; Schindler, Christian; Künzli, Nino; Yunesian, Masud

    2016-09-13

    Very few land use regression (LUR) models have been developed for megacities in low- and middle-income countries, but such models are needed to facilitate epidemiologic research on air pollution. We developed annual and seasonal LUR models for ambient oxides of nitrogen (NO, NO2, and NOX) in the Middle Eastern city of Tehran, Iran, using 2010 data from 23 fixed monitoring stations. A novel systematic algorithm was developed for spatial modeling. The R(2) values for the LUR models ranged from 0.69 to 0.78 for NO, 0.64 to 0.75 for NO2, and 0.61 to 0.79 for NOx. The most predictive variables were: distance to the traffic access control zone; distance to primary schools; green space; official areas; bridges; and slope. The annual average concentrations of all pollutants were high, approaching those reported for megacities in Asia. At 1000 randomly-selected locations the correlations between cooler and warmer season estimates were 0.64 for NO, 0.58 for NOX, and 0.30 for NO2. Seasonal differences in spatial patterns of pollution are likely driven by differences in source contributions and meteorology. These models provide a basis for understanding long-term exposures and chronic health effects of air pollution in Tehran, where such research has been limited.

  14. Model calculating annual mean atmospheric dispersion factor for coastal site of nuclear power plant.

    PubMed

    Hu, E B; Chen, J Y; Yao, R T; Zhang, M S; Gao, Z R; Wang, S X; Jia, P R; Liao, Q L

    2001-07-01

    This paper describes an atmospheric dispersion field experiment performed on the coastal site of nuclear power plant in the east part of China during 1995 to 1996. The three-dimension joint frequency are obtained by hourly observation of wind and temperature on a 100 m high tower; the frequency of the "event day of land and sea breezes" are given by observation of surface wind and land and sea breezes; the diffusion parameters are got from measurements of turbulent and wind tunnel simulation test. A new model calculating the annual mean atmospheric dispersion factor for coastal site of nuclear power plant is developed and established. This model considers not only the effect from mixing release and mixed layer but also the effect from the internal boundary layer and variation of diffusion parameters due to the distance from coast. The comparison between results obtained by the new model and current model shows that the ratio of annual mean atmospheric dispersion factor gained by the new model and the current one is about 2.0.

  15. Empirical models of monthly and annual surface albedo in managed boreal forests of Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bright, Ryan M.; Astrup, Rasmus; Strømman, Anders H.

    2013-04-01

    As forest management activities play an increasingly important role in climate change mitigation strategies of Nordic regions such as Norway, Sweden, and Finland -- the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the types and magnitude of biogeophysical climate effects and their various tradeoffs with the global carbon cycle becomes essential to avoid implementation of sub-optimal policy. Forest harvest in these regions reduces the albedo "masking effect" and impacts Earth's radiation budget in opposing ways to that of concomitant carbon cycle perturbations; thus, policies based solely on biogeochemical considerations in these regions risk being counterproductive. There is therefore a need to better understand how human disturbances (i.e., forest management activities) affect important biophysical factors like surface albedo. An 11-year remotely sensed surface albedo dataset coupled with stand-level forest management data for a variety of stands in Norway's most productive logging region are used to develop regression models describing temporal changes in monthly and annual forest albedo following clear-cut harvest disturbance events. Datasets are grouped by dominant tree species and site indices (productivity), and two alternate multiple regression models are developed and tested following a potential plus modifier approach. This resulted in an annual albedo model with statistically significant parameters that explains a large proportion of the observed variation, requiring as few as two predictor variables: i) average stand age - a canopy modifier predictor of albedo, and ii) stand elevation - a local climate predictor of a forest's potential albedo. The same model structure is used to derive monthly albedo models, with models for winter months generally found superior to summer models, and conifer models generally outperforming deciduous. We demonstrate how these statistical models can be applied to routine forest inventory data to predict the albedo

  16. A general model of intra-annual tree growth using dendrometer bands.

    PubMed

    McMahon, Sean M; Parker, Geoffrey G

    2015-01-01

    Tree growth is an important indicator of forest health, productivity, and demography. Knowing precisely how trees' grow within a year, instead of across years, can lead to a finer understanding of the mechanisms that drive these larger patterns. The growing use of dendrometer bands in research forests has only rarely been used to measure growth at resolutions finer than yearly, but intra-annual growth patterns can be observed from dendrometer bands using precision digital calipers and weekly measurements. Here we present a workflow to help forest ecologists fit growth models to intra-annual measurements using standard optimization functions provided by the R platform. We explain our protocol, test uncertainty in parameter estimates with respect to sample sizes, extend the optimization protocol to estimate robust lower and upper annual diameter bounds, and discuss potential challenges to optimal fits. We offer R code to implement this workflow. We found that starting values and initial optimization routines are critical to fitting the best functional forms. After using a bounded, broad search method, a more focused search algorithm obtained consistent results. To estimate starting and ending annual diameters, we combined the growth function with early and late estimates of beginning and ending growth. Once we fit the functions, we present extension algorithms that estimate periodic reductions in growth, total growth, and present a method of controlling for the shifting allocation to girth during the growth season. We demonstrate that with these extensions, an analysis of growth response to weather (e.g., the water available to a tree) can be derived in a way that is comparable across trees, years, and sites. Thus, this approach, when applied across broader data sets, offers a pathway to build inference about the effects of seasonal weather on growth, size- and light-dependent patterns of growth, species-specific patterns, and phenology. PMID:25691954

  17. A general model of intra-annual tree growth using dendrometer bands

    PubMed Central

    McMahon, Sean M; Parker, Geoffrey G

    2015-01-01

    Tree growth is an important indicator of forest health, productivity, and demography. Knowing precisely how trees' grow within a year, instead of across years, can lead to a finer understanding of the mechanisms that drive these larger patterns. The growing use of dendrometer bands in research forests has only rarely been used to measure growth at resolutions finer than yearly, but intra-annual growth patterns can be observed from dendrometer bands using precision digital calipers and weekly measurements. Here we present a workflow to help forest ecologists fit growth models to intra-annual measurements using standard optimization functions provided by the R platform. We explain our protocol, test uncertainty in parameter estimates with respect to sample sizes, extend the optimization protocol to estimate robust lower and upper annual diameter bounds, and discuss potential challenges to optimal fits. We offer R code to implement this workflow. We found that starting values and initial optimization routines are critical to fitting the best functional forms. After using a bounded, broad search method, a more focused search algorithm obtained consistent results. To estimate starting and ending annual diameters, we combined the growth function with early and late estimates of beginning and ending growth. Once we fit the functions, we present extension algorithms that estimate periodic reductions in growth, total growth, and present a method of controlling for the shifting allocation to girth during the growth season. We demonstrate that with these extensions, an analysis of growth response to weather (e.g., the water available to a tree) can be derived in a way that is comparable across trees, years, and sites. Thus, this approach, when applied across broader data sets, offers a pathway to build inference about the effects of seasonal weather on growth, size- and light-dependent patterns of growth, species-specific patterns, and phenology. PMID:25691954

  18. TRAC-MIP: Tropical Rain bands with an Annual cycle and Continent - Model Intercomparison Project.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biasutti, Michela; Voigt, Aiko; Scheff, Jack; Zeppetello, Lucas Randall

    2016-04-01

    Understanding and modeling tropical rainfall has proven to be one of the most stubborn challenges in climate science. Tropical rainfall biases such as a double inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the East Pacific have now persisted more than two decades despite the general improvements of climate models, and projections for the ITCZ and the monsoon systems remain uncertain in magnitude and sign. Progress in these areas can be fostered by a set of idealized experiments that target the dynamics of tropical rain band, as long as these simple experiments are properly integrated within a full hierarchy of model simulations. To this aim, we have designed the "Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and Continent - Model Intercomparison Project." TRAC-MIP involves five experiments using idealized aquaplanet and land setups to explore the dynamics of tropical rainfall. By using interactive sea-surface temperatures and seasonally-varying insolation TRAC-MIP fills the gap between idealized aquaplanet simulations with prescribed SSTs and the fully-coupled realistic model simulations of CMIP5. TRAC-MIP includes the participation of 13 state-of-the art comprehensive climate models, and it also includes a simplified model that neglects cloud and water-vapor radiative feedbacks, thus allowing a more direct connection between the results from the TRAC-MIP comprehensive models and the theoretical studies of tropical rain belt dynamics. We will present preliminary results from the ensemble, aiming to examine the mechanisms controlling tropical precipitation in the context of forced variability. First and foremost, we are interested in the largest forced variation: the annual cycle. Second, we are interested in the response to key forcings of the future (greenhouse gases) and of the Holocene (insolation). We will draw out the similarities and the distinctions between oceanic and continental rain bands, study the ways in which the two interact with each other, and investigate

  19. ENSO and annual cycle interaction: the combination mode representation in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Hong-Li; Zuo, Jinqing; Jin, Fei-Fei; Stuecker, Malte F.

    2016-06-01

    Recent research demonstrated the existence of a combination mode (C-mode) originating from the atmospheric nonlinear interaction between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific warm pool annual cycle. In this paper, we show that the majority of coupled climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of the C-mode in terms of surface wind anomalies reasonably well, and about half of the coupled models are able to reproduce spectral power at the combination tone periodicities of about 10 and/or 15 months. Compared to the CMIP5 historical simulations, the CMIP5 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations can generally exhibit a more realistic simulation of the C-mode due to prescribed lower boundary forcing. Overall, the multi-model ensemble average of the CMIP5 models tends to capture the C-mode better than the individual models. Furthermore, the models with better performance in simulating the ENSO mode tend to also exhibit a more realistic C-mode with respect to its spatial pattern and amplitude, in both the CMIP5 historical and AMIP simulations. This study shows that the CMIP5 models are able to simulate the proposed combination mode mechanism to some degree, resulting from their reasonable performance in representing the ENSO mode. It is suggested that the main ENSO periods in the current climate models needs to be further improved for making the C-mode better.

  20. Dynamic Equilibrium Inter-annual Snow Modeling for Wyoming using Reconstructed Regional Atmospheric Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohara, N.; Johnson, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    The inland glacier retreat has often been considered as one of clearest evidences of the global warming last several decades. However, when we try to model the evolution of the inland inter-annual snow storage including glaciers using a standard energy and mass balance snow model, it is impossible to keep the snow storage constant under a constant climate condition. This study treats the inland glaciers as a dynamic equilibrium system that remains constant under static climate condition. We introduced a sub-grid scale parameterization that moves snow/ice from high elevation areas to valleys as the equilibrating factor of the system. This movement of snow/ice occurs by means of wind re-distribution, avalanches, and glaciation. The physically-based model of a dynamic equilibrium snow system at a regional scale was applied to the entire state of Wyoming for long-term simulation. The developed snow model, named RegSnow model, was coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to estimate the snow surface energy fluxes during the 33-year-long historical period for transient model calibration. The RegSnow model predicted that 82.2% of interannual snow and ice storage in Wyoming may disappear by 2100 under the RCP4.5 emission scenario based on the climate projection by CMIP5 GCMs.

  1. How can regional climate models reproduce the annual cycle of precipitation in Europe?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halenka, Tomas; Belda, Michal; Klukova, Zuzana

    2016-04-01

    When preparing for climate services provision the reliable information from the model simulations has to be available. The assessment of the ensemble of available EuroCORDEX simulations will be provided in terms of monthly mean analysis of precipitation. Both ERA-Interim perfect boundary conditions simulations and historical runs driven by different GCMs from CMIP5 are validated against E-OBS data and compared for both available resolutions (0.11 and 0.44 deg.). The results are presented using the maps of model biases as well as in terms of the areal statistics for PRUDENCE regions, where former ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional simulations is used for comparison. No significantly better results can be seen when comparing the results of 0.11 deg. resolution with respect to the 0.44 deg. Moreover, while both ensembles (basically all the members) are in very good agreement in annual cycle for temperature and very close to the reality, for precipitation quite significant disagreements appear for many of the simulations over some regions, in both ensembles, especially in terms of annual course.

  2. Assessment of radiative feedback in climate models using satellite observations of annual flux variation.

    PubMed

    Tsushima, Yoko; Manabe, Syukuro

    2013-05-01

    In the climate system, two types of radiative feedback are in operation. The feedback of the first kind involves the radiative damping of the vertically uniform temperature perturbation of the troposphere and Earth's surface that approximately follows the Stefan-Boltzmann law of blackbody radiation. The second kind involves the change in the vertical lapse rate of temperature, water vapor, and clouds in the troposphere and albedo of the Earth's surface. Using satellite observations of the annual variation of the outgoing flux of longwave radiation and that of reflected solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, this study estimates the so-called "gain factor," which characterizes the strength of radiative feedback of the second kind that operates on the annually varying, global-scale perturbation of temperature at the Earth's surface. The gain factor is computed not only for all sky but also for clear sky. The gain factor of so-called "cloud radiative forcing" is then computed as the difference between the two. The gain factors thus obtained are compared with those obtained from 35 models that were used for the fourth and fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Here, we show that the gain factors obtained from satellite observations of cloud radiative forcing are effective for identifying systematic biases of the feedback processes that control the sensitivity of simulated climate, providing useful information for validating and improving a climate model.

  3. Assessment of radiative feedback in climate models using satellite observations of annual flux variation.

    PubMed

    Tsushima, Yoko; Manabe, Syukuro

    2013-05-01

    In the climate system, two types of radiative feedback are in operation. The feedback of the first kind involves the radiative damping of the vertically uniform temperature perturbation of the troposphere and Earth's surface that approximately follows the Stefan-Boltzmann law of blackbody radiation. The second kind involves the change in the vertical lapse rate of temperature, water vapor, and clouds in the troposphere and albedo of the Earth's surface. Using satellite observations of the annual variation of the outgoing flux of longwave radiation and that of reflected solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, this study estimates the so-called "gain factor," which characterizes the strength of radiative feedback of the second kind that operates on the annually varying, global-scale perturbation of temperature at the Earth's surface. The gain factor is computed not only for all sky but also for clear sky. The gain factor of so-called "cloud radiative forcing" is then computed as the difference between the two. The gain factors thus obtained are compared with those obtained from 35 models that were used for the fourth and fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Here, we show that the gain factors obtained from satellite observations of cloud radiative forcing are effective for identifying systematic biases of the feedback processes that control the sensitivity of simulated climate, providing useful information for validating and improving a climate model. PMID:23613585

  4. Importance of the Annual Cycles of SST and Solar Irradiance for Circulation and Rainfall: A Climate Model Simulation Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sud, Yogesh C.; Lau, William K. M.; Walker, G. K.; Mehta, V. M.

    2001-01-01

    Annual cycle of climate and precipitation is related to annual cycle of sunshine and sea-surface temperatures. Understanding its behavior is important for the welfare of humans worldwide. For example, failure of Asian monsoons can cause widespread famine and grave economic disaster in the subtropical regions. For centuries meteorologists have struggled to understand the importance of the summer sunshine and associated heating and the annual cycle of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on rainfall in the subtropics. Because the solar income is pretty steady from year to year, while SSTs depict large interannual variability as consequence of the variability of ocean dynamics, the influence of SSTs on the monsoons are better understood through observational and modeling studies whereas the relationship of annual rainfall to sunshine remains elusive. However, using NASA's state of the art climate model(s) that can generate realistic climate in a computer simulation, one can answer such questions. We asked the question: if there was no annual cycle of the sunshine (and its associated land-heating) or the SST and its associated influence on global circulation, what will happen to the annual cycle of monsoon rains? By comparing the simulation of a 4-year integration of a baseline Control case with two parallel anomaly experiments: 1) with annual mean solar and 2) with annual mean sea-surface temperatures, we were able to draw the following conclusions: (1) Tropical convergence zone and rainfall which moves with the Sun into the northern and southern hemispheres, specifically over the Indian, African, South American and Australian regions, is strongly modulated by the annual cycles of SSTs as well as solar forcings. The influence of the annual cycle of solar heating over land, however, is much stronger than the corresponding SST influence for almost all regions, particularly the subtropics; (2) The seasonal circulation patterns over the vast land-masses of the Northern

  5. Three-parameter-based streamflow elasticity model: application to MOPEX basins in the USA at annual and seasonal scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok K.

    2016-07-01

    We present a three-parameter streamflow elasticity model as a function of precipitation, potential evaporation, and change in groundwater storage applicable at both seasonal and annual scales. The model was applied to 245 Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) basins spread across the continental USA. The analysis of the modified equation at annual and seasonal scales indicated that the groundwater and surface water storage change contributes significantly to the streamflow elasticity. Overall, in case of annual as well as seasonal water balances, precipitation has higher elasticity values when compared to both potential evapotranspiration and storage changes. The streamflow elasticities show significant nonlinear associations with the climate conditions of the catchments indicating a complex interplay between elasticities and climate variables with substantial seasonal variations.

  6. The Annual Glaciohydrology Cycle in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Part 2. Observed and Modeled Ice Flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colgan, William Terence; Rajaram, Harihar; Anderson, Robert S.; Steffen, Konrad; Zwally, H. Jay; Phillips, Thomas; Abdalati, Waleed

    2012-01-01

    Ice velocities observed in 2005/06 at three GPS stations along the Sermeq Avannarleq flowline, West Greenland, are used to characterize an observed annual velocity cycle. We attempt to reproduce this annual ice velocity cycle using a 1-D ice-flow model with longitudinal stresses coupled to a 1-D hydrology model that governs an empirical basal sliding rule. Seasonal basal sliding velocity is parameterized as a perturbation of prescribed winter sliding velocity that is proportional to the rate of change of glacier water storage. The coupled model reproduces the broad features of the annual basal sliding cycle observed along this flowline, namely a summer speed-up event followed by a fall slowdown event. We also evaluate the hypothesis that the observed annual velocity cycle is due to the annual calving cycle at the terminus. We demonstrate that the ice acceleration due to a catastrophic calving event takes an order of magnitude longer to reach CU/ETH ('Swiss') Camp (46km upstream of the terminus) than is observed. The seasonal acceleration observed at Swiss Camp is therefore unlikely to be the result of velocity perturbations propagated upstream via longitudinal coupling. Instead we interpret this velocity cycle to reflect the local history of glacier water balance.

  7. Changes in Sahelian annual vegetation growth and phenology since 1960: A modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierre, C.; Grippa, M.; Mougin, E.; Guichard, F.; Kergoat, L.

    2016-08-01

    In semi-arid areas like the Sahel, vegetation is particularly sensitive to climate variability and can play an important role in surface-atmosphere coupling. After a wet period extending from 1950 to 1970, the Sahel experienced a severe drought in the 1970s and 1980s, followed by a partial recovery of rainfall and a "re-greening" of vegetation beginning in the 1990s. This study explores how the multidecadal variability of Sahelian rainfall and particularly the drought period have affected vegetation phenology and growth since 1960. The STEP model, which is specifically designed to simulate the Sahelian annual vegetation, including the dry season processes, is run over an area extending from 13°N to 18°N and from 20°W to 20°E. Mean values, interannual variability and phenological characteristics of the Sahelian annual grasslands simulated by STEP are in good agreement with MODIS derived production and phenology over the 2001-2014 period, which demonstrates the skill of the model and allows the analysis of vegetation changes and variability over the last 50 years. It was found that droughts in the 1970s and 1980s shortened the mean vegetation cycle and reduced its amplitude and that, despite the rainfall recovery since the 1990s, the current conditions for green and dry vegetation are still below pre-drought conditions. While the decrease in vegetation production has been largely homogeneous during droughts, vegetation recovery has been heterogeneous over the Sahel since 1990, with specific changes near the western coast and at the eastern edge of the West African monsoon area. Since 1970, the Sahel also experienced an increased interannual variability in vegetation mass and phenology. In terms of phenology, region-averaged End and Length of Season are the most variable, while maximum date and Start of Season are the least variable, although the latter displays a high variability locally.

  8. Inter-annual Variability of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems in Reanalysis and Climate model Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Praveen, V.; Sandeep, S.; Ravindran, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Monsoon Low Pressure Systems (LPS) play an important role in the Indian summer monsoon by bringing rainfall to the interior parts of Indian subcontinent. The detection and tracking of this weakly structured north north-west propagating system in reanalysis products and climate model simulations are challenging compared to the tropical and extra tropical cyclones. A robust method to objectively identify and track the LPS, which mimics the conventional LPS tracking technique, is presented. The algorithm showed its robustness in detecting and tracking LPS in ERA and MERRA reanalysis products. The algorithm fairly well captured inter-annual variability in ERA/MERRA LPSs against observations from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). An analysis of the LPS in historical CMPI5 model simulation reveal, the models' skill in simulating a realistic mean monsoon precipitation and its relation to the LPS activity. Further, this inter-model variability in the LPS is found to be linked to the mid-tropospheric stability over the Bay of Bengal region.

  9. Computational model for armor penetration. Annual report No. 3, October 1980-April 1983

    SciTech Connect

    Erlich, D.C.; Seaman, L.; Cooper, T.; Caligiuri, R.D.; Curran, D.R.

    1987-10-01

    This is the first volume of a two-volume series comprising the third annual report for the program Computational Model for Armor Penetration. The objective of the program was to develop a phenomenologically sound material-disintegration model for computationally simulating armor penetration by projectile impact. The model would provide the capability to predict the ballistic limit and downrange fragment size and velocity distributions and would eventually be used by the DoD for armor and penetrator design. The materials studied in the program were 4340 steel and depleted uranium alloy, (DU) for the penetrators, and rolled homogeneous armor (RHA) for the target. This Volume reports on the experimental and analytical work performed during the third year to conclude the development of a computational model, SHEAR3, that describes the dominant material failure and fragmentation process (adiabatic shear banding) responsible for long-rod penetrator erosion and thick armor plate plugging and fragmentation. Volume 1 also describes application of SHEAR3 with the Lagrangian wave propagation code C-HEMP to computationally simulate penetration of armor plate by normally impacting long rods both near the ballistic limit and at higher velocities sufficient to produce significant back-of-the-armor fragmentation.

  10. Forecasting geomagnetic activity at monthly and annual horizons: Time series models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2015-10-01

    Most of the existing work on forecasting geomagnetic activity has been over short intervals, on the order of hours or days. However, it is also of interest to predict over longer horizons, ranging from months to years. Forecasting tests are run for the Aa index, which begins in 1868 and provides the longest continuous records of geomagnetic activity. This series is challenging to forecast. While it exhibits cycles at 11-22 years, the amplitude and period of the cycles varies over time. There is also evidence of discontinuous trending: the slope and direction of the trend change repeatedly. Further, at the monthly resolution, the data exhibits nonlinear variability, with intermittent large outliers. Several types of models are tested: regressions, neural networks, a frequency domain algorithm, and combined models. Forecasting tests are run at horizons of 1-11 years using the annual data, and 1-12 months using the monthly data. At the 1-year horizon, the mean errors are in the range of 13-17 percent while the median errors are in the range of 10-14 percent. The accuracy of the models deteriorates at longer horizons. At 5 years, the mean errors lie in the range of 21-23 percent, and at 11 years, 23-25 percent. At the 1 year horizon, the most accurate forecast is achieved by a combined model, but over longer horizons (2-11 years), the neural net dominates. At the monthly resolution, the mean errors are in the range of 17-19 percent at 1 month, while the median errors lie in a range of 14-17 percent. The mean error increases to 23-24 percent at 5 months, and 25 percent at 12 months. A model combining frequency and time domain methods is marginally better than regressions and neural networks alone, up to 11 months. The main conclusion is that geomagnetic activity can only be predicted to within a limited threshold of accuracy, over a given range of horizons. This is consistent with the finding of irregular trends and cycles in the annual data and nonlinear variability in

  11. Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

    2015-04-01

    Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between global climate models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) data sets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty for monthly precipitation and temperature projections and to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. We adopt stochastic replicates of available GCM runs to approximate within-GCM uncertainty because large ensembles, hundreds of runs, for a given GCM and scenario are unavailable, other than the Climateprediction.net data set for the Hadley Centre GCM. To date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2015) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from

  12. Turnaround Management Strategies: The Adaptive Model and the Constructive Model. ASHE 1983 Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chaffee, Ellen E.

    The use of two management strategies by 14 liberal arts and comprehensive colleges attempting to recover from serious financial decline during 1973-1976 were studied. The adaptive model of strategy, based on resource dependence, involves managing demands in order to satisfy critical-resource providers. The constructive model of strategy, based on…

  13. Model parameter uncertainty analysis for an annual field-scale phosphorus loss model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Phosphorous (P) loss models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. All P loss models, however, have an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with them. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with ...

  14. Comprehensive Model of Annual Plankton Succession Based on the Whole-Plankton Time Series Approach

    PubMed Central

    Romagnan, Jean-Baptiste; Legendre, Louis; Guidi, Lionel; Jamet, Jean-Louis; Jamet, Dominique; Mousseau, Laure; Pedrotti, Maria-Luiza; Picheral, Marc; Gorsky, Gabriel; Sardet, Christian; Stemmann, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Ecological succession provides a widely accepted description of seasonal changes in phytoplankton and mesozooplankton assemblages in the natural environment, but concurrent changes in smaller (i.e. microbes) and larger (i.e. macroplankton) organisms are not included in the model because plankton ranging from bacteria to jellies are seldom sampled and analyzed simultaneously. Here we studied, for the first time in the aquatic literature, the succession of marine plankton in the whole-plankton assemblage that spanned 5 orders of magnitude in size from microbes to macroplankton predators (not including fish or fish larvae, for which no consistent data were available). Samples were collected in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea (Bay of Villefranche) weekly during 10 months. Simultaneously collected samples were analyzed by flow cytometry, inverse microscopy, FlowCam, and ZooScan. The whole-plankton assemblage underwent sharp reorganizations that corresponded to bottom-up events of vertical mixing in the water-column, and its development was top-down controlled by large gelatinous filter feeders and predators. Based on the results provided by our novel whole-plankton assemblage approach, we propose a new comprehensive conceptual model of the annual plankton succession (i.e. whole plankton model) characterized by both stepwise stacking of four broad trophic communities from early spring through summer, which is a new concept, and progressive replacement of ecological plankton categories within the different trophic communities, as recognised traditionally. PMID:25780912

  15. The annual cycle of stratospheric water vapor in a general circulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mote, Philip W.

    1995-01-01

    The application of general circulation models (GCM's) to stratospheric chemistry and transport both permits and requires a thorough investigation of stratospheric water vapor. The National Center for Atmospheric Research has redesigned its GCM, the Community Climate Model (CCM2), to enable studies of the chemistry and transport of tracers including water vapor; the importance of water vapor to the climate and chemistry of the stratosphere requires that it be better understood in the atmosphere and well represented in the model. In this study, methane is carried as a tracer and converted to water; this simple chemistry provides an adequate representation of the upper stratospheric water vapor source. The cold temperature bias in the winter polar stratosphere, which the CCM2 shares with other GCM's, produces excessive dehydration in the southern hemisphere, but this dry bias can be ameliorated by setting a minimum vapor pressure. The CCM2's water vapor distribution and seasonality compare favorably with observations in many respects, though seasonal variations including the upper stratospheric semiannual oscillation are generally too small. Southern polar dehydration affects midlatitude water vapor mixing ratios by a few tenths of a part per million, mostly after the demise of the vortex. The annual cycle of water vapor in the tropical and northern midlatitude lower stratosphere is dominated by drying at the tropical tropopause. Water vapor has a longer adjustment time than methane and had not reached equilibrium at the end of the 9 years simulated here.

  16. ModABa Model: Annual Flow Duration Curves Assessment in Ephemeral Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pumo, Dario; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

    2013-04-01

    A representation of the streamflow regime for a river basin is required for a variety of hydrological analyses and engineering applications, from the water resource allocation and utilization to the environmental flow management. The flow duration curve (FDC) represents a comprehensive signature of temporal runoff variability often used to synthesize catchment rainfall-runoff responses. Several models aimed to the theoretical reconstruction of the FDC have been recently developed under different approaches, and a relevant scientific knowledge specific to this topic has been already acquired. In this work, a new model for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in perennial and ephemeral catchments is introduced. The ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in intermittent BAsins) can be thought as a wide mosaic whose tesserae are frameworks, models or conceptual schemes separately developed in different recent studies. Such tesserae are harmoniously placed and interconnected, concurring together towards a unique final aim that is the reproduction of the FDC of daily streamflows in a river basin. Two separated periods within the year are firstly identified: a non-zero period, typically characterized by significant streamflows, and a dry period, that, in the cases of ephemeral basins, is the period typically characterized by absence of streamflow. The proportion of time the river is dry, providing an estimation of the probability of zero flow occurring, is empirically estimated. Then, an analysis concerning the non-zero period is performed, considering the streamflow disaggregated into a slow subsuperficial component and a fast superficial component. A recent analytical model is adopted to derive the non zero FDC relative to the subsuperficial component; this last is considered to be generated by the soil water excess over the field capacity in the permeable portion of the basin. The non zero FDC relative to the fast

  17. Modeling the Observed QBO and Inter-Annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.; Huang, F. T.

    2006-01-01

    In the current version of the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW) from Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). The model does not have topography, and the planetary waves are solely generated by instabilities. We discuss a 3D modeling study that describes the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, where the oscillation produces significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. The numerical results are compared with temperature measurements from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) instruments obtained by Huang et al. (2006). With a GW source that peaks at the Equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 26 months and zonal wind amplitudes of almost 25 m/s at 30 km. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. The modeled QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, the relative importance of the advection terms are discussed, and they are shown to be important in the stratosphere. At altitudes above 80 km, however, the QBO-related inter-annual variations of the tide are generated primarily by GW momentum deposition. In qualitative agreement with the SABER measurements, the model generates distinct zonal-mean QBO temperature variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the stratosphere, the computed amplitudes are not much smaller than those observed, and the rate of downward propagation at the Equator is reproduced. The modeled temperature amplitudes in the mesosphere, however, are much smaller than those observed. The observed and computed temperature variations of the QBO peak at the Equator but extend with phase reversals to high latitudes, in contrast to the zonal winds that are

  18. Modeling of clouds and radiation for developing parameterizations for general circulation models. Annual report, 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Toon, O.B.; Westphal, D.L.

    1996-07-01

    We have used a hierarchy of numerical models for cirrus and stratus clouds and for radiative transfer to improve the reliability of general circulation models. Our detailed cloud microphysical model includes all of the physical processes believed to control the lifecycles of liquid and ice clouds in the troposphere. We have worked on specific GCM parameterizations for the radiative properties of cirrus clouds, making use of a mesocale model as the test-bed for the parameterizations. We have also modeled cirrus cloud properties with a detailed cloud physics model to better understand how the radiatively important properties of cirrus are controlled by their environment. We have used another cloud microphysics model to investigate of the interactions between aerosols and clouds. This work is some of the first to follow the details of interactions between aerosols and cloud droplets and has shown some unexpected relations between clouds and aerosols. We have also used line-by- line radiative transfer results verified with ARM data, to derive a GCMS.

  19. Modeling of clouds and radiation for developing parameterizations for general circulation models. Annual report, 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1994-12-31

    We are using a hierarchy of numerical models of cirrus and stratus clouds and radiative transfer to improve the reliability of general circulation models. Our detailed cloud microphysical model includes all of the physical processes believed to control the lifecycle of liquid and ice clouds in the troposphere. In our one-dimensional cirrus studies, we find that the ice crystal number and size in cirrus clouds are not very sensitive to the number of condensation nuclei which are present. We have compared our three-dimensional meoscale simulations of cirrus clouds with radar, lidar satellite and other observations of water vapor and cloud fields and find that the model accurately predicts the characteristics of a cirrus cloud system. The model results reproduce several features detected by remote sensing (lidar and radar) measurements, including the appearance of the high cirrus cloud at about 15 UTC and the thickening of the cloud at 20 UTC. We have developed a new parameterizations for production of ice crystals based on the detailed one-dimensional cloud model, and are presently testing the parameterization in three-dimensional simulations of the FIRE-II November 26 case study. We have analyzed NWS radiosonde humidity data from FIRE and ARM and found errors, biases, and uncertainties in the conversion of the sensed resistance to humidity.

  20. The ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) and monthly and inter annual regional forecasting.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lovejoy, S.; Del Rio Amador, L.; Sloman, L.

    2015-12-01

    By exploiting the sensitive dependence on initial conditions, GCM's can generate a statistical ensemble of future states in which the high frequency "weather" is treated as a driving noise. Following Hasselman, 1976, this has lead to stochastic models that directly generate the noise, and model the low frequencies using systems of integer ordered linear ordinary differential equations, the most well known are the linear inverse models (LIM). These have been presented as a benchmark for decadal surface temperature forecast. Using the LIM, hindcast skills comparable to and sometimes even better than the skill of (coupled) Global Circulation Models (GCM's) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Nevertheless, the short range exponential temporal decorrelations implicit in the LIM models are unrealistic (the true decorrelations are closer to long range power laws), and - as a consequence - the useful limit to the forecast horizon is roughly one year: it enormously underestimates the memory of the system. In presentation, we make a scaling analogue of the LIM: ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) that exploits the power law (scaling) behavior in time of the temperature field and consequently, make use of the long history dependence of the data to improve the skill. The results predicted analytically by the model have been tested by performing actual hindcasts in different 5º x 5º regions on the planet using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis as a reference datasets. As a first step, we removed the anthropogenic component of each time series based on its sensitivity to equivalent CO2 concentration for the last 130 years, the residues are our estimates of the natural variability that SLIMM predicts. This residues were treated as fractional Gaussian noise processes with scaling exponent H between -0.5 and 0. The value of H for each grid-point can be obtained directly from the data. We report maps of theoretical skill predicted by the model and we

  1. 8th Annual Glycoscience Symposium: Integrating Models of Plant Cell Wall Structure, Biosynthesis and Assembly

    SciTech Connect

    Azadi, Paratoo

    2015-09-24

    The Complex Carbohydrate Research Center (CCRC) of the University of Georgia holds a symposium yearly that highlights a broad range of carbohydrate research topics. The 8th Annual Georgia Glycoscience Symposium entitled “Integrating Models of Plant Cell Wall Structure, Biosynthesis and Assembly” was held on April 7, 2014 at the CCRC. The focus of symposium was on the role of glycans in plant cell wall structure and synthesis. The goal was to have world leaders in conjunction with graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and research scientists to propose the newest plant cell wall models. The symposium program closely followed the DOE’s mission and was specifically designed to highlight chemical and biochemical structures and processes important for the formation and modification of renewable plant cell walls which serve as the basis for biomaterial and biofuels. The symposium was attended by both senior investigators in the field as well as students including a total attendance of 103, which included 80 faculty/research scientists, 11 graduate students and 12 Postdoctoral students.

  2. Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models: Annual Progress Report for Fiscal Year 2004

    SciTech Connect

    Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Fellows, Robert J.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Valenta, Michelle M.; Gilmore, Tyler J.

    2004-12-02

    This Annual Progress Report describes the work performed and summarizes some of the key observations to date on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report describes activities undertaken to collect samples of soils from three regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and perform analyses to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Section 3 summarizes information gathered regarding agricultural practices and common and unusual crops grown in each of these three areas. Section 4 describes progress in studying radionuclide uptake in several representative crops from the three soil types in controlled laboratory conditions. Section 5 describes a range of international coordination activities undertaken by Project staff in order to support the underlying data needs of the Project. Section 6 provides a very brief summary of the status of the GENII Version 2 computer program, which is a “client” of the types of data being generated by the Project, and for which the Project will be providing training to the US NRC staff in the coming Fiscal Year. Several appendices provide additional supporting information.

  3. Quantifying uncertainty in modelled estimates of annual maximum precipitation: confidence intervals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Economou, Polychronis; Caroni, Chrys

    2016-04-01

    The possible nonstationarity of the GEV distribution fitted to annual maximum precipitation under climate change is a topic of active investigation. Of particular significance is how best to construct confidence intervals for items of interest arising from stationary/nonstationary GEV models.We are usually not only interested in parameter estimates but also in quantiles of the GEV distribution and it might be expected that estimates of extreme upper quantiles are far from being normally distributed even for moderate sample sizes.Therefore, we consider constructing confidence intervals for all quantities of interest by bootstrap methods based on resampling techniques. To this end, we examined three bootstrapping approaches to constructing confidence intervals for parameters and quantiles: random-t resampling, fixed-t resampling and the parametric bootstrap. Each approach was used in combination with the normal approximation method, percentile method, basic bootstrap method and bias-corrected method for constructing confidence intervals. We found that all the confidence intervals for the stationary model parameters have similar coverage and mean length. Confidence intervals for the more extreme quantiles tend to become very wide for all bootstrap methods. For nonstationary GEV models with linear time dependence of location or log-linear time dependence of scale, confidence interval coverage probabilities are reasonably accurate for the parameters. For the extreme percentiles, the bias-corrected and accelerated method is best overall, and the fixed-t method also has good average coverage probabilities. Reference: Panagoulia D., Economou P. and Caroni C., Stationary and non-stationary GEV modeling of extreme precipitation over a mountainous area under climate change, Environmetrics, 25 (1), 29-43, 2014.

  4. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall in Nigeria: intra-annual variation of model parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jimoh, O. D.; Webster, P.

    1999-09-01

    A Markov model of order 1 may be used to describe the occurrence of wet and dry days in Nigeria. Such models feature two parameter sets; P01 to characterise the probability of a wet day following a dry day and P11 to characterise the probability of a wet day following a wet day. The model parameter sets, when estimated from historical records, are characterised by a distinctive seasonal behaviour. However, the comparison of this seasonal behaviour between rainfall stations is hampered by the noise reflecting the high variability of parameters on successive days. The first part of this article is concerned with methods for smoothing these inherently noisy parameter sets. Smoothing has been approached using Fourier series, averaging techniques, or a combination thereof. It has been found that different methods generally perform well with respect to estimation of the average number of wet events and the frequency duration curves of wet and dry events. Parameterisation of the P01 parameter set is more successful than the P11 in view of the relatively small number of wet events lasting two or more days. The second part of the article is concerned with describing the regional variation in smoothed parameter sets. There is a systematic variation in the P01 parameter set as one moves northwards. In contrast, there is limited regional variation in the P11 set. Although this regional variation in P01 appears to be related to the gradual movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, the contrasting behaviour of the two parameter sets is difficult to explain on physical grounds.

  5. Process-based distributed hydrological modelling of annual floods in the Upper Zambezi using the Desert Flood Index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meinhardt, Markus; Sven, Kralisch; Manfred, Fink; Daniel, Butchart-Kuhlmann; Anthony, Chabala; Melanie, Fleischer; Jörg, Helmschrot; Wilson, Phiri; Tina, Trautmann; Henry, Zimba; Imasiku, Nyambe

    2016-04-01

    Wetland areas are especially sensitive to changes in hydrological conditions. The catchment of the Luanginga River, a tributary of the Upper Zambezi which covers about 33000 km², shows this characteristic in an exemplary way. Ranging from the Angolan highlands to the Barotse floodplain of the Zambezi River , it is characterized by an annual flow regime and extensive wetland areas. Due to its annual flooding with peak times in April, the area features exceptionally fertile soils with high agricultural production and is further known for its rich cultural heritage, making it especially sensitive to changes of hydrological conditions . To identify possible changes related to projected climate and land management change, especially in the area of the floodplain, there is a need to apply a process-based distributed hydrological model of the annual floods . Remote sensing techniques have shown to be appropriate to identify the extend of the important flooding and were used to validate the model in space and time. The results of this research can be used as a basis with which to provide evidence-based advice and information for all decision-makers and stakeholders in the region. For this assessment , such a modelling approach is applied to adequately represent hydrological processes and to address key water resources management issues at sub-basin levels. Introducing a wetland simulation extension, the model allows to represent the annual flood regime of the system and thus to address the effect of climate change and upstream land use changes on flow regimes in the downstream watershed. In order to provide a basis for model validation and calibration, the inundated area was determined using the Desert Flood Index (DFI), which was generated from a time series of Landsat images. We will give a short introduction to the study area and related water resources management problems, present the intended model structure and show first simulations and model validation results

  6. Role of asymmetry in competition for light in a model of annual plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Droz, Michel; Pȩkalski, Andrzej

    2012-02-01

    We propose and discuss a model describing dynamics of annual plants competing with their nearest neighbours for sunlight. The effect of the competition determines the size, or equivalently, the biomass of each plant and the number of seeds it produces. At the end of a period (year) plants distribute their seeds over the sites in the Moore neighbourhood and then die. They leave their biomass in the form of litter, which hinders germination of the seeds. We show that the dynamical behaviour depends crucially on two parameters-litter reduction rate and the plants' growth rate. Larger litter reduction rate and smaller growth rate lead to the population of few plants, producing more biomass than when more smaller plants are present and the litter reduction rate is low and growth rate is high. We show that asymmetry in the competition, which could favour bigger plants, have rather weak effect on the dynamical behaviour. The distribution of the biomass depends on the asymmetry. When larger plants receive much more sunlight than the smaller ones, the latter are quite often eliminated from the neighbourhood. For weaker asymmetry smaller plants could survive, producing however less biomass than the larger plants.

  7. A general Bayesian framework for calibrating and evaluating stochastic models of annual multi-site hydrological data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frost, Andrew J.; Thyer, Mark A.; Srikanthan, R.; Kuczera, George

    2007-07-01

    SummaryMulti-site simulation of hydrological data are required for drought risk assessment of large multi-reservoir water supply systems. In this paper, a general Bayesian framework is presented for the calibration and evaluation of multi-site hydrological data at annual timescales. Models included within this framework are the hidden Markov model (HMM) and the widely used lag-1 autoregressive (AR(1)) model. These models are extended by the inclusion of a Box-Cox transformation and a spatial correlation function in a multi-site setting. Parameter uncertainty is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Models are evaluated by their ability to reproduce a range of important extreme statistics and compared using Bayesian model selection techniques which evaluate model probabilities. The case study, using multi-site annual rainfall data situated within catchments which contribute to Sydney's main water supply, provided the following results: Firstly, in terms of model probabilities and diagnostics, the inclusion of the Box-Cox transformation was preferred. Secondly the AR(1) and HMM performed similarly, while some other proposed AR(1)/HMM models with regionally pooled parameters had greater posterior probability than these two models. The practical significance of parameter and model uncertainty was illustrated using a case study involving drought security analysis for urban water supply. It was shown that ignoring parameter uncertainty resulted in a significant overestimate of reservoir yield and an underestimation of system vulnerability to severe drought.

  8. Modeling Inter-annual Variability of Seasonal Evaporation and Storage Change Based on the Extended Budyko Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Alimohammadi, N.; Wang, D.

    2013-12-01

    Long-term climate is the first order control on mean annual water balance, and vegetation and the interactions between climate seasonality and soil water storage change have also been found to play important roles. The purpose of this paper is to extend the Budyko hypothesis to the seasonal scale and to develop a model for inter-annual variability of seasonal evaporation and storage change. A seasonal aridity index is defined as the ratio of potential evaporation to effective precipitation, where effective precipitation is the difference between rainfall and storage change. Correspondingly, evaporation ratio is defined as the ratio of evaporation to effective precipitation. A modified Turc-Pike equation with a horizontal shift is proposed to model inter-annual variability of seasonal evaporation ratio as a function of seasonal aridity index, which includes rainfall seasonality and soil water change. The performance of the seasonal water balance model is evaluated for 277 watersheds in the United States. 99% of wet seasons and 90% of dry seasons have Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients larger than 0.5. The developed seasonal model can be applied for constructing long-term evaporation and storage change data when rainfall, potential evaporation, and runoff observations are available. On the other hand, vegetation affects seasonal water balance by controlling both evaporation and soil moisture dynamics. The correlation between NDVI and evaporation is strong particularly in wet seasons. However, the correlation between NDVI and the seasonal model parameters is only strong in dry seasons.

  9. Annual fishes of the genus Nothobranchius as a model system for aging research.

    PubMed

    Genade, Tyrone; Benedetti, Mauro; Terzibasi, Eva; Roncaglia, Paola; Valenzano, Dario Riccardo; Cattaneo, Antonino; Cellerino, Alessandro

    2005-10-01

    Aging research in vertebrates is hampered by the lack of short-lived models. Annual fishes of the genus Nothobranchius live in East African seasonal ponds. Their life expectancy in the wild is limited by the duration of the wet season and their lifespan in captivity is also short. Nothobranchius are popular aquarium fishes and many different species are kept as captive strains, providing rich material for comparative studies. The present paper aims at reviving the interest in these fishes by reporting that: (1) Nothobranchius can be cultured, and their eggs stored dry at room temperature for months or years, offering inexpensive methods of embryo storage; (2) Nothobranchius show accelerated growth and expression of aging biomarkers at the level of histology and behaviour; (3) the species Nothobranchius furzeri has a maximum lifespan of only 3 months and offers the possibility to perform investigations thus far unthinkable in a vertebrate, such as drug screening with life-long pharmacological treatments and experimental evolution; (4) when the lifespan of different species is compared, a general correlation is found between wet season duration in their natural habitat and longevity in captivity; and (5) vertebrate aging-related genes, such as p66Shc and MTP, can be easily isolated in Nothobranchius by homology cloning. These fishes can become excellent models for aging studies. They can be employed to test the effects of experimental manipulation on aging at a pace comparable with that of Drosophila and to probe the effects of natural selection on the evolution of aging-related genes. PMID:16164422

  10. Integrated ray tracing simulation of annual variation of spectral bio-signatures from cloud free 3D optical Earth model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryu, Dongok; Kim, Sug-Whan; Kim, Dae Wook; Lee, Jae-Min; Lee, Hanshin; Park, Won Hyun; Seong, Sehyun; Ham, Sun-Jeong

    2010-09-01

    Understanding the Earth spectral bio-signatures provides an important reference datum for accurate de-convolution of collapsed spectral signals from potential earth-like planets of other star systems. This study presents a new ray tracing computation method including an improved 3D optical earth model constructed with the coastal line and vegetation distribution data from the Global Ecological Zone (GEZ) map. Using non-Lambertian bidirectional scattering distribution function (BSDF) models, the input earth surface model is characterized with three different scattering properties and their annual variations depending on monthly changes in vegetation distribution, sea ice coverage and illumination angle. The input atmosphere model consists of one layer with Rayleigh scattering model from the sea level to 100 km in altitude and its radiative transfer characteristics is computed for four seasons using the SMART codes. The ocean scattering model is a combination of sun-glint scattering and Lambertian scattering models. The land surface scattering is defined with the semi empirical parametric kernel method used for MODIS and POLDER missions. These three component models were integrated into the final Earth model that was then incorporated into the in-house built integrated ray tracing (IRT) model capable of computing both spectral imaging and radiative transfer performance of a hypothetical space instrument as it observes the Earth from its designated orbit. The IRT model simulation inputs include variation in earth orientation, illuminated phases, and seasonal sea ice and vegetation distribution. The trial simulation runs result in the annual variations in phase dependent disk averaged spectra (DAS) and its associated bio-signatures such as NDVI. The full computational details are presented together with the resulting annual variation in DAS and its associated bio-signatures.

  11. CEREF: A hybrid data-driven model for forecasting annual streamflow from a socio-hydrological system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Hongbo; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yinghao

    2016-09-01

    Hydrological forecasting is complicated by flow regime alterations in a coupled socio-hydrologic system, encountering increasingly non-stationary, nonlinear and irregular changes, which make decision support difficult for future water resources management. Currently, many hybrid data-driven models, based on the decomposition-prediction-reconstruction principle, have been developed to improve the ability to make predictions of annual streamflow. However, there exist many problems that require further investigation, the chief among which is the direction of trend components decomposed from annual streamflow series and is always difficult to ascertain. In this paper, a hybrid data-driven model was proposed to capture this issue, which combined empirical mode decomposition (EMD), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and external forces (EF) variable, also called the CEREF model. The hybrid model employed EMD for decomposition and RBFNN for intrinsic mode function (IMF) forecasting, and determined future trend component directions by regression with EF as basin water demand representing the social component in the socio-hydrologic system. The Wuding River basin was considered for the case study, and two standard statistical measures, root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), were used to evaluate the performance of CEREF model and compare with other models: the autoregressive (AR), RBFNN and EMD-RBFNN. Results indicated that the CEREF model had lower RMSE and MAE statistics, 42.8% and 7.6%, respectively, than did other models, and provided a superior alternative for forecasting annual runoff in the Wuding River basin. Moreover, the CEREF model can enlarge the effective intervals of streamflow forecasting compared to the EMD-RBFNN model by introducing the water demand planned by the government department to improve long-term prediction accuracy. In addition, we considered the high-frequency component, a frequent subject of concern in EMD

  12. Uncertainty analysis of a spatially explicit annual water-balance model: case study of the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamel, P.; Guswa, A. J.

    2015-02-01

    There is an increasing demand for assessment of water provisioning ecosystem services. While simple models with low data and expertise requirements are attractive, their use as decision-aid tools should be supported by uncertainty characterization. We assessed the performance of the InVEST annual water yield model, a popular tool for ecosystem service assessment based on the Budyko hydrological framework. Our study involved the comparison of 10 subcatchments ranging in size and land-use configuration, in the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina. We analyzed the model sensitivity to climate variables and input parameters, and the structural error associated with the use of the Budyko framework, a lumped (catchment-scale) model theory, in a spatially explicit way. Comparison of model predictions with observations and with the lumped model predictions confirmed that the InVEST model is able to represent differences in land uses and therefore in the spatial distribution of water provisioning services. Our results emphasize the effect of climate input errors, especially annual precipitation, and errors in the ecohydrological parameter Z, which are both comparable to the model structure uncertainties. Our case study supports the use of the model for predicting land-use change effect on water provisioning, although its use for identifying areas of high water yield will be influenced by precipitation errors. While some results are context-specific, our study provides general insights and methods to help identify the regions and decision contexts where the model predictions may be used with confidence.

  13. Spatial distribution of precipitation annual cycles over South Africa in 10 CORDEX regional climate model present-day simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Favre, Alice; Philippon, Nathalie; Pohl, Benjamin; Kalognomou, Evangelia-Anna; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Nikulin, Grigori; Dosio, Alessandro; Panitz, Hans-Juergen; Cerezo-Mota, Ruth

    2016-03-01

    This study presents an evaluation of the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-Africa to reproduce the present-day spatial distribution of annual cycles of precipitation over the South African region and its borders. As found in previous studies, annual mean precipitation is quasi-systematically overestimated by the RCMs over a large part of southern Africa south of about 20°S and more strongly over South Africa. The spatial analysis of precipitation over the studied region shows that in most models the distribution of biases appears to be linked to orography. Wet biases are quasi-systematic in regions with higher elevation with inversely neutral to dry biases particularly in the coastal fringes. This spatial pattern of biases is particularly obvious during summer and specifically at the beginning of the rainy season (November and December) when the wet biases are found to be the strongest across all models. Applying a k-means algorithm, a classification of annual cycles is performed using observed precipitation data, and is compared with those derived from modeled data. It is found that the in-homogeneity of the spatial and temporal distribution of biases tends to impact the modeled seasonality of precipitation. Generally, the pattern of rainfall seasonality in the ensemble mean of the 10 RCMs tends to be shifted to the southwest. This spatial shift is mainly linked to a strong overestimation of convective precipitation at the beginning of the rainy season over the plateau inducing an early annual peak and to an underestimation of stratiform rainfall in winter and spring over southwestern South Africa.

  14. [Annual sediment yield in sub-watersheds at upper reaches of Minjiang River: a simulation with SEDD model].

    PubMed

    Yang, Meng; Li, Xiu-Zhen; Hu, Yuan-Man; He, Xing-Yuan

    2007-08-01

    Based on GIS, a sediment delivery distributed (SEDD) model was established to simulate the spatial patterns of annual soil water erosion and sediment yield in two sub-watersheds at the upper reaches of Minjiang River. The model was based on the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) for calculating the annual soil water erosion, and coupled with an equation for evaluating the sediment delivery ratio of each cell. The results showed that in most regions of the two sub-watersheds, erosion intensity was below high level. Similar spatial patterns of sediment delivery ratio and sediment yield were observed, i. e., being higher along river, and approached to zero in other regions. Most parts of eroded soil were deposited in the sub-watersheds during their transportation, and less than 5% of it reached the river. Shrub land and forestland were the most important sources of sediment yield, and the sum of their sediment yield occupied 70% of the total.

  15. Annual nutrients export modelling by analysis of landuse and topographic information: case of a small Mediterranean catchment.

    PubMed

    Payraudeau, S; Tournoud, M G; Cernesson, F; Picot, B

    2001-01-01

    The preservation of water bodies from eutrophication implies accurate estimation of phosphorus and nitrogen loads and the control of nutrient production on a catchment scale. In this paper, a simple tool for the modelling of annual nutrient loads is presented. It is implemented in ARC/INFO GIS using Arc Macro Language (AML). The use of a GIS is justified as the spatial characteristics of the catchment area (land use, industrial wastewater location) dictate water quality. The annual nutrient loads are worked out on the catchment scale, using existing GIS routines together with specific routines developed in AML for hydrological and water quality modelling purposes. The catchment area is divided into hydrological subcatchments with relatively homogeneous spatial characteristics. Each subcatchment is linked to a specific nutrient export potential. These nutrient loads, calculated on a subcatchment-by-subcatchment basis, are conveyed to the outlet of the catchment and allow annual nutrient load estimation. A comparison with a water monitoring study is conducted to verify the adequation of modelling results for phosphorus and nitrogen loads.

  16. Annual nutrients export modelling by analysis of landuse and topographic information: case of a small Mediterranean catchment.

    PubMed

    Payraudeau, S; Tournoud, M G; Cernesson, F; Picot, B

    2001-01-01

    The preservation of water bodies from eutrophication implies accurate estimation of phosphorus and nitrogen loads and the control of nutrient production on a catchment scale. In this paper, a simple tool for the modelling of annual nutrient loads is presented. It is implemented in ARC/INFO GIS using Arc Macro Language (AML). The use of a GIS is justified as the spatial characteristics of the catchment area (land use, industrial wastewater location) dictate water quality. The annual nutrient loads are worked out on the catchment scale, using existing GIS routines together with specific routines developed in AML for hydrological and water quality modelling purposes. The catchment area is divided into hydrological subcatchments with relatively homogeneous spatial characteristics. Each subcatchment is linked to a specific nutrient export potential. These nutrient loads, calculated on a subcatchment-by-subcatchment basis, are conveyed to the outlet of the catchment and allow annual nutrient load estimation. A comparison with a water monitoring study is conducted to verify the adequation of modelling results for phosphorus and nitrogen loads. PMID:11548001

  17. Use of a physiological process model with forestry yield tables to set limits on annual carbon balances.

    PubMed

    Waring, R H; McDowell, Nate

    2002-02-01

    We present an approach that sets limits on annual carbon fluxes for different aged forests by using a simple process-based model (3-PG) and information derived from yield tables and local weather stations. Given a measure of height-growth potential, model predictions are constrained to match stand dynamics described in yield tables. Thus constrained, the model can provide reasonable annual estimates of gross photosynthesis under a specified climate, even with inexact knowledge of soil properties. If we assume that leaf litterfall and fine-root turnover approach equilibrium at canopy closure, maximum net annual ecosystem exchange can also be predicted from modeled estimates of these two detrital components and estimates of foliage, branch, stem and coarse-root production. The latter four components of production are predicted from allometric relationships with mean stem diameter. The approach is demonstrated for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) stands between Ages 20 and 150 years growing under conditions typical of those at Wind River, Washington, USA. Gross photosynthesis (Pg) by Douglas-fir at Ages 20, 70 and 150 years with leaf area indices (L) of 8.1, 6.9 and 4.0 was predicted at 1630, 1580 and 1160 g C m-2 year(1, respectively. Maximum net ecosystem production (Pe) for the same range in age classes was predicted to average 275, 294 and 207 g C m-2 year-1, respectively. The predicted reductions in L for older stands do not occur because other species fill the canopy gaps created by natural mortality of Douglas-fir. As a result of the development of an understory, total Pg is predicted to decrease only slightly with the aging of the overstory. Estimates of Pe exclude respiration from coarse woody debris, although additions of this component are provided annually by the model. The process-based modeling approach, constrained by yield table estimates of stand properties, sets reasonable limits on annual carbon exchange and suggests which

  18. Evaluating long-term annual sediment yield estimating potential of GIS interfaced MUSLE model on two micro-watersheds.

    PubMed

    Arekhi, Saleh

    2008-01-15

    Use of an event scale MUSLE model for obtaining accurate long-term annual sediment yield estimates from micro-watersheds was evaluated. Such estimates are extremely important for designing appropriate soil/water conserving measures. For easy extraction and inputting of model input parameters, the proposed model was interfaced to an Arc-View/Spatial Analyst geographic information system. Application of this GIS interfaced MUSLE model on two gauged (pine and oak forest) hilly micro-watersheds viz., Salla Rautella (0.47 km2) and Naula (0.42 km2), in Almora district of Uttaranchal, India showed that it could estimate annual sediment yields with absolute mean relative errors ranging between 12-14%. Even long-term average sediment yields for Salla Rautella (observed: 9.58 tons and estimated: 10.92 tons) and Naula: (Observed: 23.89 tons and estimated: 26.61 tons) micro-watersheds could be quite realistically simulated by the proposed model. PMID:18817202

  19. Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

    PubMed Central

    Basso, Bruno; Hyndman, David W.; Kendall, Anthony D.; Grace, Peter R.; Robertson, G. Philip

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability. PMID:26043188

  20. Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

    PubMed

    Basso, Bruno; Hyndman, David W; Kendall, Anthony D; Grace, Peter R; Robertson, G Philip

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability.

  1. A simple-harmonic model for depicting the annual cycle of seasonal temperatures of streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steele, Timothy Doak

    1978-01-01

    Due to economic or operational constraints, stream-temperature records cannot always be collected at all sites where information is desired or at frequencies dictated by continuous or near-continuous surveillance requirements. For streams where only periodic measurements are made during the year, and that are not appreciably affected by regulation or by thermal loading , a simple harmonic function may adequately depict the annual seasonal cycle of stream temperature at any given site. Resultant harmonic coefficients obtained from available stream-temperature records may be used in the following ways: (1) To interpolate between discrete measurements by solving the harmonic function at specified times, thereby filling in estimates of stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature values; (2) to characterize areal or regional patterns of natural stream-temperature conditions; and (3) to detect and to assess any significant at a site brought about by streamflow regulation or basin development. Moreover, less-than-daily or sampling frequencies at a given site may give estimates of annual variation of stream temperatures that are statistically comparable to estimates obtained from a daily or continuous sampling scheme. The latter procedure may result in potential savings of resources in network operations, with negligible loss in information on annual stream-temperature variations. (Woodard -USGS)

  2. Simulation of the annual and diurnal cycles of rainfall over South Africa by a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pohl, Benjamin; Rouault, Mathieu; Roy, Shouraseni Sen

    2014-10-01

    The capability of a current state-of-the-art regional climate model for simulating the diurnal and annual cycles of rainfall over a complex subtropical region is documented here. Hourly rainfall is simulated over Southern Africa for 1998-2006 by the non-hydrostatic model weather research and forecasting (WRF), and compared to a network of 103 stations covering South Africa. We used five simulations, four of which consist of different parameterizations for atmospheric convection at a 0.5 × 0.5° resolution, performed to test the physic-dependency of the results. The fifth experiment uses explicit convection over tropical South Africa at a 1/30° resolution. WRF simulates realistic mean rainfall fields, albeit wet biases over tropical Africa. The model mean biases are strongly modulated by the convective scheme used for the simulations. The annual cycle of rainfall is well simulated over South Africa, mostly influenced by tropical summer rainfall except in the Western Cape region experiencing winter rainfall. The diurnal cycle shows a timing bias, with atmospheric convection occurring too early in the afternoon, and causing too abundant rainfall. This result, particularly true in summer over the northeastern part of the country, is weakly physic-dependent. Cloud-resolving simulations do not clearly reduce the diurnal cycle biases. In the end, the rainfall overestimations appear to be mostly imputable to the afternoon hours of the austral summer rainy season, i.e., the periods during which convective activity is intense over the region.

  3. Quantifying missing annual emission sources of heavy metals in the United Kingdom with an atmospheric transport model.

    PubMed

    Dore, Anthony J; Hallsworth, Stephen; McDonald, Alan G; Werner, Małgorzata; Kryza, Maciej; Abbot, John; Nemitz, Eiko; Dore, Christopher J; Malcolm, Heath; Vieno, Massimo; Reis, Stefan; Fowler, David

    2014-05-01

    An atmospheric chemical transport model was adapted to simulate the concentration and deposition of heavy metals (arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, selenium, vanadium, and zinc) in the United Kingdom. The model showed that wet deposition was the most important process for the transfer of metals from the atmosphere to the land surface. The model achieved a good correlation with annually averaged measurements of metal concentrations in air. The correlation with measurements of wet deposition was less strong due to the complexity of the atmospheric processes involved in the washout of particulate matter which were not fully captured by the model. The measured wet deposition and air concentration of heavy metals were significantly underestimated by the model for all metals (except vanadium) by factors between 2 and 10. These results suggest major missing sources of annual heavy metal emissions which are currently not included in the official inventory. Primary emissions were able to account for only 9%, 21%, 29%, 21%, 36%, 7% and 23% of the measured concentrations for As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn. A likely additional contribution to atmospheric heavy metal concentrations is the wind driven re-suspension of surface dust still present in the environment from the legacy of much higher historic emissions. Inclusion of two independent estimates of emissions from re-suspension in the model was found to give an improved agreement with measurements. However, an accurate estimate of the magnitude of re-suspended emissions is restricted by the lack of measurements of metal concentrations in the re-suspended surface dust layer.

  4. Annual plankton dynamics in a coupled physical-biological model of the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peña, M. Angelica; Masson, Diane; Callendar, Wendy

    2016-08-01

    A three-dimensional coupled biophysical model was developed to study the dynamics of the plankton ecosystem in the Strait of Georgia (SoG) estuary. The ocean circulation component is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the lower trophic level ecosystem is a nine-compartment Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) model that includes two types of phytoplankton and of zooplankton. A three year hindcast (2007-2009) is used to examine the mean annual seasonal cycle of the local plankton dynamics. For realistic values of irradiance, wind forcing and fresh water fluxes, the model predicts a seasonal cycle of salinity, nutrients and plankton in reasonable agreement with observations. In particular, the model reproduces the main features of the estuarine circulation, the marked increase in phytoplankton biomass during spring followed by intermittent less intense blooms during summer and fall, as well as the seasonal pattern of zooplankton biomass. Model results show that primary production fluctuates between low values in January and high values in April, with an annual production of 270 ± 33 (gC m-2) in the SoG. Most primary production is fueled by nitrate (f-ratio of about 0.7). Upwelling is the main source of nitrate into the upper layer, while most of the nitrate entering the Strait is exported out by horizontal advection. Physical processes, such as freshwater inflow, wind events, tidal mixing, and horizontal transports are important in maintaining the high spatio-temporal variability of the local phytoplankton biomass and production. Horizontal variability is high during the growing season (March to September). In summer, phytoplankton concentrates near the surface, in the shallow mixed layer, resulting in sporadic nutrient limitation of phytoplankton growth. In the northern portion of the strait, weaker summer winds and tidal currents lead to increased near-surface stratification which restricts nutrient fluxes and limit

  5. Modeling the Ecohydrologic Response of the Forest-Grassland Ecotone in Western Canada to Changes in Annual Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yetemen, O.; Ireson, A. M.; Barr, A.; Melton, J. R.; Black, T. A.

    2015-12-01

    The ecotone between the southern boreal forest and the grassland of western Canada is controlled by the water balance, and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Although ecohydrologic fluxes are being investigated at the Boreal Ecosystem Research and Monitoring Sites (BERMS) at the stand level, the ecohydrologic response of this ecotone to climate change is poorly understood. We use CTEM (the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model), coupled to CLASS (the Canadian Land Surface Scheme), to explore the structural and functional responses of the forest-grassland ecotone to climatic variability. The initial evaluations of CLASS-CTEM are being done using data from three mature forest sites (jack pine, aspen and black spruce) at BERMS and one grassland site. The model is forced with observed climate data between 1997 and 2010 by using each year, run repeatedly with a 400 year spin up, as one climatic scenario. Preliminary results show a sigmoidal response of annual gross primary production (GPP) to annual precipitation within each plant functional type, with limited GPP at low precipitation, higher but uniform GPP at high precipitation, and an intermediate precipitation range where GPP responds sensitively to increasing precipitation.

  6. A rainfall-runoff modeling procedure for improving estimates of T-year (annual) floods for small drainage basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lichty, Robert W.; Liscum, Fred

    1978-01-01

    Maps depicting the influence of a climatic factor, C, on the magnitude of synthetic T-year (annual) floods were prepared for a large portion of the eastern United States. The climatic factors were developed by regression analysis of flood data using a parametric rainfall-runoff model and long-term rainfall records. Map estimates of C values and calibrated values of rainfall-runoff model parameters were used as variables in a synthetic T-year flood relation to compute ' map-model ' flood estimates for 98 small drainage basins in a six-state study area. Improved estimates of T-year floods were computed as a weighted average of the map-model estimate and an observed estimate, with the weights proportional to the relative accuracies of the two estimates. The accuracy of the map-model estimates was appraised by decomposing components of variance into average time-sampling error associated with the observed estimates and average map-model error. Map-model estimates have an accuracy, in terms of equivalent length of observed record, that ranges from 6 years for the 1.25-year flood up to 30 years for the 50- and 100-year flood. (Woodard-USGS)

  7. Seasonal models of herpangina and hand-foot-mouth disease to simulate annual fluctuations in urban warming in Tokyo.

    PubMed

    Urashima, Mitsuyoshi; Shindo, Nahoko; Okabe, Nobuhiko

    2003-04-01

    In order to investigate the effects of global warming, we attempted to establish seasonal models to predict fluctuations in rates of herpangina (HA) and hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) associated with weather conditions and calendar months in Tokyo, Japan. Surveillance data tracking HA/HFMD incidences in Tokyo was retrieved from the Infectious Agents Surveillance Report, published by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Japan. From the Meteorological Agency, we obtained data for 54 weather condition parameters. The annual fluctuations in reported HA cases comprising start, peak, and end weeks almost exactly matched the model, although peak levels for each fluctuation did not always match in HFMD. Furthermore, for the HA model, 88% of the variations among observed HA cases were explained by the linear relationship with the seasonal parameters investigated, which was higher than the 64% observed for the HFMD model. The HA and HFMD models were applied to data from the years 1999 to 2002, and demonstrated correlations of 86% and 64%, respectively. These models predicted that warmer climate conditions would lead to an increased number of HA and HFMD cases. These results suggest that our seasonal models may quantify the dependency of infectious diseases on seasonal parameters and simulate the impact of global warming.

  8. Modeling the annual soil erosion rate in the mouth of river Pineios' sub-basin in Thessaly County, Greece.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ilia, Ioanna; Loupasakis, Constantinos; Tsangaratos, Paraskevas

    2015-04-01

    Erosion is a natural - geomorphological phenomenon, active through geological time that is considered as one of the main agents that forms the earth surface. Soil erosion models estimate the rates of soil erosion and provide useful information and guidance for the development of appropriate intervention and soil conservation practices and strategies. A significant number of soil erosion models can be found in literature; however, the most extensively applied model is the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) established in 1997 by Renard KG, Foster GR, Weesies GA, McCool DK and Yoder DC. RUSLE is an empirically based model that enables the estimation of the average annual rate of soil erosion for an area of interest providing several alternative scenarios involving cropping systems, management methods and erosion control strategies. According to RUSLE model's specifications five major factors (rainfall pattern, soil type, topography, crop system, and management practices) are utilized for estimating the average annual erosion through the following equation: A=RxKxLxSxCxP, PIC where A is the computed spatial average soil loss and temporal average soil loss per unit area (tons ha-1 year-1), R the rainfall-runoff erosivity factor (MJ mm ha-1h-1 year-1), K the soil erodibility factor (tons h MJ-1 mm-1), L the slope - length factor, S the slope steepness factor, C the cover management factor and P the conservation support practice factor. L, S, C and P factors are all dimensionless. The present study aims to utilize a GIS-based RUSLE model in order to estimate the average annual soil loss rate in the sub-basin extending at the mouth of Pineios river in Thessaly County, Greece. The area covers approximate 775.9 km2 with a mean slope angle of 7.8o. The rainfall data of 39 gauge station from 1980 to 2000 where used in order to predict the rainfall-runoff erosivity factor (R). The K-factor was estimated using soil maps available from the European Soil Portal with a

  9. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the annual P loss estimator (APLE) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that there are inherent uncertainties with model predictions, limited studies have addressed model prediction uncertainty. In this study we assess the effect of model input error on predict...

  10. Comparing an annual and daily time-step model for predicting field-scale P loss

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Several models with varying degrees of complexity are available for describing P movement through the landscape. The complexity of these models is dependent on the amount of data required by the model, the number of model parameters needed to be estimated, the theoretical rigor of the governing equa...

  11. Organizational Models and Mythologies of the American Research University. ASHE 1986 Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alpert, Daniel

    Features of the matrix model of the research university and myths about the academic enterprise are described, along with serious dissonances in the U.S. university system. The linear model, from which the matrix model evolved, describes the university's structure, perceived mission, and organizational behavior. A matrix model portrays in concise,…

  12. Mean SST bias and variability at inter-annual and decadal time-scales in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polo, Irene; Villamayor, Julian; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa

    2016-04-01

    Analysis of model systematic errors in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has generally focused on local processes and particular basins. Mean warm bias over the south subtropical upwelling systems in coupled models are largely studied and local cloud cover, alongshore winds and ocean stratification are pointed out as the responsible processes. Mean errors have impacts on the variability but this is less understood. In this study we try to understand the relation between mean global SST biases and how models perform the variability at different time-scales. To this end, we calculate the SST variability modes for 18 models in the preindustrial control CMIP5 experiment. We first analyse the seasonality of those modes and the inter-model differences. Associated parameters are confronted with the mean SST bias variability among models, thus we conclude how realistic models simulate the variability depending on the mean SST bias. Preliminary results suggest that models with cooler (warmer) that average SST mean bias over the southern hemisphere reproduce better (worse) the Inter-Decadal Pacific variability. Similar mean bias pattern has an effect on the skill for reproducing Pacific El Nino and Atlantic Nino modes. Finally an inter-model SST bias variability mode is found relating errors over the southern upwelling systems with cloud cover around 60S and equatorial precipitation shift. This mode is able to summarize some features in relation with inter-decadal to inter-annual variability in CMIP5 models and thus represents a potential tool to understand the wider picture in relation to SST biases and future projections.

  13. A probabilistic model of chronological errors in layer-counted climate proxies: applications to annually banded coral archives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comboul, M.; Emile-Geay, J.; Evans, M. N.; Mirnateghi, N.; Cobb, K. M.; Thompson, D. M.

    2014-04-01

    The ability to precisely date climate proxies is central to the reconstruction of past climate variations. To a degree, all climate proxies are affected by age uncertainties, which are seldom quantified. This article proposes a probabilistic age model for proxies based on layer-counted chronologies, and explores its use for annually banded coral archives. The model considers both missing and doubly counted growth increments (represented as independent processes), accommodates various assumptions about error rates, and allows one to quantify the impact of chronological uncertainties on different diagnostics of variability. In the case of a single coral record, we find that time uncertainties primarily affect high-frequency signals but also significantly bias the estimate of decadal signals. We further explore tuning to an independent, tree-ring-based chronology as a way to identify an optimal age model. A synthetic pseudocoral network is used as testing ground to quantify uncertainties in the estimation of spatiotemporal patterns of variability. Even for small error rates, the amplitude of multidecadal variability is systematically overestimated at the expense of interannual variability (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, in this case), artificially flattening its spectrum at periods longer than 10 years. An optimization approach to correct chronological errors in coherent multivariate records is presented and validated in idealized cases, though it is found difficult to apply in practice due to the large number of solutions. We close with a discussion of possible extensions of this model and connections to existing strategies for modeling age uncertainties.

  14. A probabilistic model of chronological errors in layer-counted climate proxies: applications to annually-banded coral archives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comboul, M.; Emile-Geay, J.; Evans, M. N.; Mirnateghi, N.; Cobb, K. M.; Thompson, D. M.

    2013-10-01

    The ability to precisely date climate proxies is central to the reconstruction of past climate variations. To a degree, all climate proxies are affected by age uncertainties, which are seldom quantified. This article proposes a probabilistic age model for proxies based on layer-counted chronologies, and explores its use for annually-banded coral archives. The model considers both missing and doubly-counted growth increments (represented as independent processes), accommodates various assumptions about error rates, and allows to quantify the impact of chronological uncertainties on different diagnostics of variability. In one dimension, we find that time uncertainties primarily affect high-frequency signals but also significantly bias the estimate of decadal signals. We further explore tuning to an independent, tree-ring based chronology as a way to identify an optimal age model. In the multivariate case, a synthetic pseudocoral network is used as testing ground to quantify uncertainties in the estimation of spatiotemporal patterns of variability. Even for small error rates, the amplitude of multidecadal variability is systematically overestimated at the expense of interannual variability (ENSO, in this case), artificially flattening its spectrum at periods longer than 10 yr. An approach to correct chronological errors in coherent multivariate records is presented and validated in idealized cases, though it is found difficult to apply in practice due to the large size of the solution space. We end with a discussion of possible extensions of this model and connections to existing strategies for modeling age uncertainties.

  15. Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Annual Report and Research Highlights 2011-2012

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rienecker, Michele M.

    2012-01-01

    Over the last year, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has continued to advance our GEOS-5-based systems, updating products for both weather and climate applications. We contributed hindcasts and forecasts to the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) of seasonal forecasts and the suite of decadal predictions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).

  16. Parameter uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator (APLE) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Technical abstract: Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study, we conduct an uncertainty analys...

  17. Predicting Distribution and Inter-Annual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity from a Stochastic, Multiple-Linear Regression Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, C. Y.; Tippett, M. K.; Sobel, A. H.; Camargo, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    We are working towards the development of a new statistical-dynamical downscaling system to study the influence of climate on tropical cyclones (TCs). The first step is development of an appropriate model for TC intensity as a function of environmental variables. We approach this issue with a stochastic model consisting of a multiple linear regression model (MLR) for 12-hour intensity forecasts as a deterministic component, and a random error generator as a stochastic component. Similar to the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), MLR relates the surrounding environment to storm intensity, but with only essential predictors calculated from monthly-mean NCEP reanalysis fields (potential intensity, shear, etc.) and from persistence. The deterministic MLR is developed with data from 1981-1999 and tested with data from 2000-2012 for the Atlantic, Eastern North Pacific, Western North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere basins. While the global MLR's skill is comparable to that of the operational statistical models (e.g., SHIPS), the distribution of the predicted maximum intensity from deterministic results has a systematic low bias compared to observations; the deterministic MLR creates almost no storms with intensities greater than 100 kt. The deterministic MLR can be significantly improved by adding the stochastic component, based on the distribution of random forecasting errors from the deterministic model compared to the training data. This stochastic component may be thought of as representing the component of TC intensification that is not linearly related to the environmental variables. We find that in order for the stochastic model to accurately capture the observed distribution of maximum storm intensities, the stochastic component must be auto-correlated across 12-hour time steps. This presentation also includes a detailed discussion of the distributions of other TC-intensity related quantities, as well as the inter-annual

  18. From the bush to the bench: the annual Nothobranchius fishes as a new model system in biology.

    PubMed

    Cellerino, Alessandro; Valenzano, Dario R; Reichard, Martin

    2016-05-01

    African annual fishes from the genus Nothobranchius are small teleosts that inhabit temporary water bodies subject to annual desiccation due to the alternation of the monsoon seasons. Given their unique biology, these fish have emerged as a model taxon in several biological disciplines. Their increasing popularity stems from the extremely short lifespan that is the result of their specific life-history adaptations and is retained under laboratory conditions. Nothobranchius furzeri, the most popular laboratory species, is the vertebrate species with the shortest lifespan recorded in captivity. In the laboratory, adults of different Nothobranchius species and populations live between 3 and 18 months and, notably, there is a negative correlation between the captive lifespan of a species and the aridity of their habitat. Their short lifespan is coupled to rapid age-dependent functional decline and expression of cellular and molecular changes comparable to those observed in other vertebrates, including humans. The recent development of transgenesis in this species makes it possible to insert specific constructs into their genome, and the establishment of transgenic lines is facilitated by their very rapid generation time, which can be as short as 1 month. This makes Nothobranchius species particularly suited for investigating biological and molecular aspects of ageing and ageing-associated dysfunctions. At the same time, they also represent a unique model taxon to investigate the evolution of life-history adaptations and their genetic architecture. We review their natural history, including phylogenetic relationships, distribution in relation to habitat conditions and natural selection for differential longevity, population structure and demography, and life cycle with emphasis on diapause that may occur at three stages during embryonic development. We further critically evaluate their use as a laboratory model for understanding the evolution of a rapid ageing rate and

  19. Variations in the elemental ratio of organic matter in the central Baltic Sea: Part II - Sensitivities of annual mass flux estimates to model parameter variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreus, Markus; Schartau, Markus

    2015-06-01

    This study describes a sensitivity analysis that allows the parameters of a one-dimensional ecosystem model to be ranked according to their specificity in determining biochemical key fluxes. Key fluxes of interest are annual (a) total production (TP), (b) remineralization above the halocline (RM), and (c) export at 50 m (EX) at the Baltic Sea monitoring site BY15 located in the Gotland Deep basin. The model resolves mass flux of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorous (P), while considering nitrogen fixation explicitly. Our first null hypothesis is that the variation of the value of every single model parameter affects each annual C, N, and P budget simultaneously. Our second null hypothesis states that the variation of every parameter value induces changes at least in either of the annual C, N or P budgets. Our analyses falsify both null hypotheses and reveal that 8 out of 36 parameters must be regarded redundant, as their variation neither alter annual key fluxes nor produce considerable time-shifts in model trajectories at the respective site. Seven parameters were found to induce substantial changes in annual C, N, and P flux estimates simultaneously. The assimilation efficiency of zooplankton turned out to be of vital importance. This parameter discriminates between the assimilation and destruction of algal prey during grazing. The fraction of unassimilated dead algal cells is critical for the amount of organic matter exported out of the euphotic zone. The maximum cellular N:C quota of diazotrophs and the degradation/hydrolysis rate of detrital carbon are two parameters that will likely remain unconstrained by time series data, but both affect the annual C budget considerably. Overall, our detailed specification of model sensitivities to parameter variations will facilitate the formulation of a well-posed inverse problem for the estimation of C, N and P fluxes from stock observations at the Gotland Deep.

  20. Participatory Planning Using Computer-Based Modeling. AIR 1991 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grumbles, Kent; Hinkle, Dennis

    This paper examines effects of combining long-range planning and computer-based modeling in institutions of higher education, with examples from application at Butler University (Indiana). The model was developed due to a need to obtain a 5-year forecast of revenues and expenditures and consists of eight dynamic submodels--one for each of the five…

  1. An Economically Driven Enrollment Projections Model. AIR 1986 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yost, Michael, Jr.; Chino, Laney

    An admissions/enrollment model was developed using 5 years of data on undergraduate and graduate enrollment, admissions, budget and tuition revenues, and anticipated tuition costs. The model produced estimates of admissions and enrollment numbers required to meet projected increases in the institutional budget. Using a variation of the Markov…

  2. Parameter uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator (APLE) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Phosphorous (P) loss models are important tools for developing and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. All P loss models, however, have an inherent amount of uncertainty associated with them. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with ...

  3. Annual Report: Property Improvement in CZT via Modeling and Processing Innovations

    SciTech Connect

    Henager, Charles H.; Setyawan, Wahyu; Gao, Fei; Hu, Shenyang Y.; Bliss, Mary; Riley, Brian J.; Alvine, Kyle J.; Stave, Jean A.

    2013-09-01

    The objective of this project is to develop growth models of CZT crystals from the melt using vertical gradient freeze (VGF) or vertical Bridgman growth as a typical process. Further, the project will perform critical experiments including single crystal growth to validate the growth models and to provide detailed data for modeling and simulation. Ideally, the project will develop growth models that will provide, for the first time, choices for optimal CZT single crystal growth from the melt based on model input. The overarching goal that guides this research proposal is to produce large, single crystals of CZT with good yield and reproducible properties. In our view this depends on 1) understanding crystal growth processes, including annealing and cool-down processing, and 2) understanding the role of defects on detector response since it is not possible, yet, to produce defect-free materials. Models of defect structure and formation are addressed. Validated models and experiments on reducing defects in melt-grown crystals are used to guide our understanding of growth processes and in-furnace annealing plus cool-down.

  4. Salt Repository Project: Waste Package Program (WPP) modeling activiteis: FY 1984 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Kuhn, W.L.; Simonson, S.A.; Pulsipher, B.A.

    1987-03-01

    The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is supporting the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Salt Repository Project (SRP) through its Waste Package Program (WPP). During FY 1984, the WPP continued its program of waste package component development and interactions testing and application of the resulting data base to develop predictive models describing waste package degradation and radionuclide release. Within the WPP, the Modeling Task (Task 04 during FY 1984) was conducted to interpret the tests in such a way that scientifically defensible models can be developed for use in qualification of the waste package.

  5. The Annual Glaciohydrology Cycle in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Part 1. Hydrology Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colgan, William; Rajaram, Harihar; Anderson, Robert; Steffen. Konrad; Phillips, Thomas; Zwally, H. Jay; Abdalati, Waleed

    2012-01-01

    We apply a novel one-dimensional glacier hydrology model that calculates hydraulic head to the tidewater-terminating Sermeq Avannarleq flowline of the Greenland ice sheet. Within a plausible parameter space, the model achieves a quasi-steady-state annual cycle in which hydraulic head oscillates close to flotation throughout the ablation zone. Flotation is briefly achieved during the summer melt season along a approx.17 km stretch of the approx.50 km of flowline within the ablation zone. Beneath the majority of the flowline, subglacial conduit storage closes (i.e. obtains minimum radius) during the winter and opens (i.e. obtains maximum radius) during the summer. Along certain stretches of the flowline, the model predicts that subglacial conduit storage remains open throughout the year. A calculated mean glacier water residence time of approx.2.2 years implies that significant amounts of water are stored in the glacier throughout the year. We interpret this residence time as being indicative of the timescale over which the glacier hydrologic system is capable of adjusting to external surface meltwater forcings. Based on in situ ice velocity observations, we suggest that the summer speed-up event generally corresponds to conditions of increasing hydraulic head during inefficient subglacial drainage. Conversely, the slowdown during fall generally corresponds to conditions of decreasing hydraulic head during efficient subglacial drainage.

  6. Model Watershed Development in Eastern Washington, Administrative Project Support, Annual Progress Report

    SciTech Connect

    Bottman, Bob; Bartels, Duane; Johnson, Bradley J.

    1998-10-28

    The purpose of the Model Watershed Coordinator Grant was to help impact water quality and fisheries habitat concerns within the Asotin Creek Watershed by developing relationships between local landowners and resource agencies in the area.

  7. Influence of seaway changes during the Pliocene on tropical Pacific climate in the Kiel climate model: mean state, annual cycle, ENSO, and their interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Zhaoyang; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Krebs-Kanzow, Uta; Schneider, Birgit

    2016-08-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific interannual variability in the present-day climate. Available proxy evidence suggests that ENSO also existed during past climates, for example during the Pliocene extending from about 5.3 million to about 2.6 million years BP. Here we investigate the influences of the Panama Seaway closing and Indonesian Passages narrowing, and also of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on the tropical Pacific mean climate and annual cycle, and their combined impact on ENSO during the Pliocene. To this end the Kiel Climate Model), a global climate model, is employed to study the influences of the changing geometry and CO2-concentration. We find that ENSO is sensitive to the closing of the Panama Seaway, with ENSO amplitude being reduced by about 15-20 %. The narrowing of the Indonesian Passages enhances ENSO strength but only by about 6 %. ENSO period changes are modest and the spectral ENSO peak stays rather broad. Annual cycle changes are more prominent. An intensification of the annual cycle by about 50 % is simulated in response to the closing of the Panama Seaway, which is largely attributed to the strengthening of meridional wind stress. In comparison to the closing of the Panama Seaway, the narrowing of the Indonesian Passages only drives relatively weak changes in the annual cycle. A robust relationship is found such that ENSO amplitude strengthens when the annual cycle amplitude weakens.

  8. Thermodynamic model for calorimetric and phase coexistence properties of coal derived fluids. Annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Kabadi, V.N.

    1991-10-01

    On September 1, 1989 work was initiated on a project to extend the available vapor-liquid equilibrium (VLE) model for coal fluids to allow satisfactory predictions of excess enthalpies of coal liquids at high pressures. The available vapor liquid equilibrium model was developed with support from previous grant from DOE-PETC (Grant no. DE-FG22-89PC90541). The current project also involves measurement of some model compound VLE data and chromatographic characterization of coal liquids for distribution of heteroatoms. A computational thermodynamic model for VLE, excess enthalpies and heat capacities of coal derived liquids has been developed. The model uses the modified UNIFAC correlation for the liquid phase. Some unavailable UNIFAC interactions parameters have been regressed from experimental VLE and excess enthalpy data. The computations are carried out using the method of continuous thermodynamics. Mode is used to derive interesting conclusions on the effect of oxygen, nitrogen, and sulfur heteroatoms on the thermodynamic properties of coal liquids. When compared with limited experimental data available for coal liquids the model shows good agreement. Some progress has been made on binary VLE measurements and size exclusion chromatography of coal liquids.

  9. The annual pressure cycle on Mars: Results from the LMD Martian atmospheric general circulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hourdin, Frederic; Forget, Francois; Talagrand, O.

    1993-01-01

    We have been developing a General Circulation Model (GCM) of the martian atmosphere since 1989. The model has been described rather extensively elsewhere and only the main characteristics are given here. The dynamical part of the model, adapted from the LMD terrestrial climate model, is based on a finite-difference formulation of the classical 'primitive equations of meteorology.' The radiative transfer code includes absorption and emission by CO2 (carefully validated by comparison to line-by-line calculations) and dust in the thermal range and absorption and scattering by dust in the visible range. Other physical parameterizations are included: modeling of vertical turbulent mixing, dry convective adjustment (in order to prevent vertical unstable temperature profiles), and a multilayer model of the thermal conduction in the soil. Finally, the condensation-sublimation of CO2 is introduced through specification of a pressure-dependent condensation temperature. The atmospheric and surface temperatures are prevented from falling below this critical temperature by condensation and direct precipitation onto the surface of atmospheric CO2. The only prespecified spatial fields are the surface thermal inertia, albedo, and topography.

  10. Estimation of Annual Average Soil Loss, Based on Rusle Model in Kallar Watershed, Bhavani Basin, Tamil Nadu, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahaman, S. Abdul; Aruchamy, S.; Jegankumar, R.; Ajeez, S. Abdul

    2015-10-01

    Soil erosion is a widespread environmental challenge faced in Kallar watershed nowadays. Erosion is defined as the movement of soil by water and wind, and it occurs in Kallar watershed under a wide range of land uses. Erosion by water can be dramatic during storm events, resulting in wash-outs and gullies. It can also be insidious, occurring as sheet and rill erosion during heavy rains. Most of the soil lost by water erosion is by the processes of sheet and rill erosion. Land degradation and subsequent soil erosion and sedimentation play a significant role in impairing water resources within sub watersheds, watersheds and basins. Using conventional methods to assess soil erosion risk is expensive and time consuming. A comprehensive methodology that integrates Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), coupled with the use of an empirical model (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation- RUSLE) to assess risk, can identify and assess soil erosion potential and estimate the value of soil loss. GIS data layers including, rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodability (K), slope length and steepness (LS), cover management (C) and conservation practice (P) factors were computed to determine their effects on average annual soil loss in the study area. The final map of annual soil erosion shows a maximum soil loss of 398.58 t/ h-1/ y-1. Based on the result soil erosion was classified in to soil erosion severity map with five classes, very low, low, moderate, high and critical respectively. Further RUSLE factors has been broken into two categories, soil erosion susceptibility (A=RKLS), and soil erosion hazard (A=RKLSCP) have been computed. It is understood that functions of C and P are factors that can be controlled and thus can greatly reduce soil loss through management and conservational measures.

  11. An annual assessment of air quality with the CALIOPE modeling system over Spain.

    PubMed

    Baldasano, J M; Pay, M T; Jorba, O; Gassó, S; Jiménez-Guerrero, P

    2011-05-01

    The CALIOPE project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment, aims at establishing an air quality forecasting system for Spain. With this goal, CALIOPE modeling system was developed and applied with high resolution (4km×4km, 1h) using the HERMES emission model (including emissions of resuspended particles from paved roads) specifically built up for Spain. The present study provides an evaluation and the assessment of the modeling system, coupling WRF-ARW/HERMES/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b for a full-year simulation in 2004 over Spain. The evaluation focuses on the capability of the model to reproduce the temporal and spatial distribution of gas phase species (NO(2), O(3), and SO(2)) and particulate matter (PM10) against ground-based measurements from the Spanish air quality monitoring network. The evaluation of the modeling results on an hourly basis shows a strong dependency of the performance of the model on the type of environment (urban, suburban and rural) and the dominant emission sources (traffic, industrial, and background). The O(3) chemistry is best represented in summer, when mean hourly variability and high peaks are generally well reproduced. The mean normalized error and bias meet the recommendations proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA) and the European regulations. Modeled O(3) shows higher performance for urban than for rural stations, especially at traffic stations in large cities, since stations influenced by traffic emissions (i.e., high-NO(x) environments) are better characterized with a more pronounced daily variability. NO(x)/O(3) chemistry is better represented under non-limited-NO(2) regimes. SO(2) is mainly produced from isolated point sources (power generation and transformation industries) which generate large plumes of high SO(2) concentration affecting the air quality on a local to national scale where the meteorological pattern is crucial. The contribution of mineral dust from the Sahara desert through

  12. Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials program. Annual Status Report

    SciTech Connect

    Swanson, G.A.; Linask, I.; Nissley, D.M.; Norris, P.P.; Meyer, T.G.; Walker, K.P.

    1986-02-01

    This report presents the results of the first year of a program designed to develop life prediction and constitutive models for two coated single crystal alloys used in gas turbine airfoils. The two alloys are PWA 1480 and Alloy 185. The two oxidation resistant coatings are PWA 273, an aluminide coating, and PWA 286, an overlay NiCoCrAlY coating. To obtain constitutive and/or fatigue data, tests were conducted on coated and uncoated PWA 1480 specimens tensilely loaded in the 100, 110, 111, and 123 directions. A literature survey of constitutive models was completed for both single crystal alloys and metallic coating materials; candidate models were selected. One constitutive model under consideration for single crystal alloys applies Walker's micromechanical viscoplastic formulation to all slip systems participating in the single crystal deformation. The constitutive models for the overlay coating correlate the viscoplastic data well. For the aluminide coating, a unique test method is under development. LCF and TMF tests are underway. The two coatings caused a significant drop in fatigue life, and each produced a much different failure mechanism.

  13. Effect of inter-annual variability in pasture growth and irrigation response on farm productivity and profitability based on biophysical and farm systems modelling.

    PubMed

    Vogeler, Iris; Mackay, Alec; Vibart, Ronaldo; Rendel, John; Beautrais, Josef; Dennis, Samuel

    2016-09-15

    Farm system and nutrient budget models are increasingly being used in analysis to inform on farm decision making and evaluate land use policy options at regional scales. These analyses are generally based on the use of average annual pasture yields. In New Zealand (NZ), like in many countries, there is considerable inter-annual variation in pasture growth rates, due to climate. In this study a modelling approach was used to (i) include inter-annual variability as an integral part of the analysis and (ii) test the approach in an economic analysis of irrigation in a case study within the Hawkes Bay Region of New Zealand. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to generate pasture dry matter yields (DMY) for 20 different years and under both dryland and irrigation. The generated DMY were linked to outputs from farm-scale modelling for both Sheep and Beef Systems (Farmaxx Pro) and Dairy Systems (Farmax® Dairy Pro) to calculate farm production over 20 different years. Variation in DMY and associated livestock production due to inter-annual variation in climate was large, with a coefficient of variations up to 20%. Irrigation decreased this inter-annual variation. On average irrigation, with unlimited available water, increased income by $831 to 1195/ha, but when irrigation was limited to 250mm/ha/year income only increased by $525 to 883/ha. Using pasture responses in individual years to capturing the inter-annual variation, rather than the pasture response averaged over 20years resulted in lower financial benefits. In the case study income from irrigation based on an average year were 10 to >20% higher compared with those obtained from individual years.

  14. Bayesian Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection in Nigeria, Including Annual Deworming Requirements

    PubMed Central

    Oluwole, Akinola S.; Ekpo, Uwem F.; Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Abe, Eniola M.; Olamiju, Francisca O.; Isiyaku, Sunday; Okoronkwo, Chukwu; Saka, Yisa; Nebe, Obiageli J.; Braide, Eka I.; Mafiana, Chiedu F.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2015-01-01

    Background The acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities. Methodology STH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria. Principal Findings We found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets. Conclusions/Significance The predictive risk maps and estimated

  15. Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand

    PubMed Central

    Blakely, Tony; Cobiac, Linda J.; Cleghorn, Christine L.; Pearson, Amber L.; van der Deen, Frederieke S.; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Nghiem, Nhung; McLeod, Melissa; Wilson, Nick

    2015-01-01

    Background Countries are increasingly considering how to reduce or even end tobacco consumption, and raising tobacco taxes is a potential strategy to achieve these goals. We estimated the impacts on health, health inequalities, and health system costs of ongoing tobacco tax increases (10% annually from 2011 to 2031, compared to no tax increases from 2011 [“business as usual,” BAU]), in a country (New Zealand) with large ethnic inequalities in smoking-related and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden. Methods and Findings We modeled 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, using rich national data by sex, age, and ethnicity, to estimate undiscounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and net health system costs over the remaining life of the 2011 population (n = 4.4 million). A total of 260,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 155,000–419,000) QALYs were gained among the 2011 cohort exposed to annual tobacco tax increases, compared to BAU, and cost savings were US$2,550 million (95% UI: US$1,480 to US$4,000). QALY gains and cost savings took 50 y to peak, owing to such factors as the price sensitivity of youth and young adult smokers. The QALY gains per capita were 3.7 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori because of higher background smoking prevalence and price sensitivity in Māori. Health inequalities measured by differences in 45+ y-old standardized mortality rates between Māori and non-Māori were projected to be 2.31% (95% UI: 1.49% to 3.41%) less in 2041 with ongoing tax rises, compared to BAU. Percentage reductions in inequalities in 2041 were maximal for 45–64-y-old women (3.01%). As with all such modeling, there were limitations pertaining to the model structure and input parameters. Conclusions Ongoing tobacco tax increases deliver sizeable health gains and health sector cost savings and are likely to reduce health inequalities. However, if policy makers are to achieve more rapid reductions in the NCD

  16. 76 FR 69769 - Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-09

    ...) on the research and development of multimedia (i.e., air, soil, water) environmental models. This MOU... Branch, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555... establishes a framework for facilitating cooperation and coordination among research organizations in...

  17. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) - Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2007: Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model generated (HBM) estimates of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 particles with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microns)concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2007 calen...

  18. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) - Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2008: Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA’s Hierarchical Bayesian model generated (HBM) estimates of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particles with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microns) concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2007 ca...

  19. Using Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Capital Project Review. AIR 1985 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaynor, Robert K.

    The value of microcomputer modeling tools and spreadsheets to help college institutional researchers analyze proposed capital projects is discussed, along with strengths and weaknesses of different software packages. Capital budgeting is the analysis that supports decisions about the allocation and commitment of funds to long-term capital…

  20. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2004 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2004 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  1. Modeling Comparative Daily Enrollment Indicators To Aid Intelligent College Decisions. AIR 2001 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lajubutu, Oyebanjo A.

    This paper shows how three critical enrollment indicators drawn from a relationship database were used to guide planning and management decisions. The paper discusses the guidelines for the development of the model, attributes needed, variables to be calculated, and other issues that may improve the effectiveness and efficiency of daily enrollment…

  2. Faculty Salary Equity: Issues in Regression Model Selection. AIR 1992 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, Nelle

    This paper discusses the determination of college faculty salary inequity and identifies the areas in which human judgment must be used in order to conduct a statistical analysis of salary equity. In addition, it provides some informed guidelines for making those judgments. The paper provides a framework for selecting salary equity models, based…

  3. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2006 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2006 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  4. Look Into My Crystal Cathode Ray Tube: Computer Models Make Annual Giving Predictions Easy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCaskey, Cynthia Gelhard; Dunn, John A., Jr.

    1983-01-01

    Wesleyan University's imaginative use of computer programing helped project into the future and consider alternative fund-raising methods. The process of planning the model and its use in assessing three program options are outlined, and the computer method's usefulness in motivating development staff is emphasized. (MSE)

  5. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2005 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2005 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  6. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2003 – Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2003 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  7. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2002– Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2002 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O3 ...

  8. Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM)-Derived Estimates of Air Quality for 2001 - Annual Report

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes EPA's Hierarchical Bayesian model-generated (HBM) estimates of O3 and PM2.5 concentrations throughout the continental United States during the 2001 calendar year. HBM estimates provide the spatial and temporal variance of O 3...

  9. Studying Faculty Flows Using an Interactive Spreadsheet Model. AIR 1997 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Wayne

    This paper describes a spreadsheet-based faculty flow model developed and implemented at the University of Calgary (Canada) to analyze faculty retirement, turnover, and salary issues. The study examined whether, given expected faculty turnover, the current salary increment system was sustainable in a stable or declining funding environment, and…

  10. Eddy permitting simulation of the global ocean model COCO4.3 driven by the CORE inter- annual forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, T.; Hasumi, H.; Komuro, Y.; Sakamoto, T. T.

    2008-12-01

    We are developing ocean component of the CCSR/NIES/FRCGC climate model to conduct high-resolution global warming simulations under IPCC scenarios. This presentation focuses on the performance and the behavior and role of eddies in the global ocean. The Ocean model is CCSR Ocean Component Model (COCO) version 4.3, which is a z-coordinate, free-surface primitive equation ocean model with multi-category sea ice model. The geographical North Pole is moved to 40W, 77N on Greenland and the geographical South Pole is moved to 40E, 77S. The computational domain covers global ocean, with zonal grid spacing of 0.28125 degree and meridional grid spacing of 0.1875 degree. There are 50 vertical levels excluding the bottom boundary layer, and 7 of which are within the sigma-coordinate (~42m). The model employs the momentum advection algorithm of Ishizaki and Motoi (1991), which is a pseudo-enstrophy preserving scheme with a consideration for up-/down-sloping advection. The model's tracer advection is based on the second-order moment (SOM) advection scheme of Prather, M. J. (1986). The vertical mixing of momentum and tracers is represented by a harmonic form. The coefficients are calculated by the parameterization of Noh and Kim (1999), but the formulation is slightly modified (see K1-developers, 2004). As background diffusivity, a minimum value is set for each level, suggested by Tsujino et al. (2000). The Smagorinsky's (1963) biharmonic viscosity is applied for the lateral momentum mixing, and its coefficient is dependent on the grid width and the strain rate, and its controlled by a single non- dimensional parameter whose values is taken to be 2.5. The constant coefficient biharmonic diffusion is applied with the coefficient value of 1.0E9 m4/s. The model is driven by the inter-annual forcing data set adopted by common ocean-ice reference experiments (CORE). The results are reported by focusing on heat transport in strong eddy activity regions, such as the Kuroshio

  11. Chevron: Refinery Identifies $4.4 Million in Annual Savings by Using Process Simulation Models to Perform Energy-Efficiency Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2004-05-01

    In an energy-efficiency study at its refinery near Salt Lake City, Utah, Chevron focused on light hydrocarbons processing. The company found it could recover hydrocarbons from its fuel gas system and sell them. By using process simulation models of special distillation columns and associated reboilers and condensers, Chevron could predict the performance of potential equipment configuration changes and process modifications. More than 25,000 MMBtu in natural gas could be saved annually if a debutanizer upgrade project and a new saturated gas plant project were completed. Together, these projects would save $4.4 million annually.

  12. Climate system modeling program. Annual report, September 1, 1991--August 31, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Schimel, D.; Bretherton, F.

    1993-05-14

    The CSMP proposal to NSF contained a description of a project to examine variability of the climate system on decadal-to-contennial time scales, with an emphasis on eventually understanding the processes which led to climate variability over the past one to two centuries as a basis for validating models of potential future changes. The project thus focused first, on understanding, and second on understanding as a basis for the development of validation procedures for models intended for use in climate change applications. The principal activity of the first year of the project was a workshop on one of the major sources of interdecadal variability-the thermohaline circulation (THC) of the oceans. This workshop was focused on review of the cutting edge science of the THC, and on identification of opportunities for future research. The workshop report is attached.

  13. Measurement and modeling of advanced coal conversion processes. Annual report, October 1990--September 1991

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, P.R.; Serio, M.A.; Hamblen, D.G.; Smoot, L.D.; Brewster, B.S. |

    1991-12-31

    The overall objective of this program is the development of predictive capability for the design, scale up, simulation, control and feedstock evaluation in advanced coal conversion devices. This program will merge significant advances made in measuring and quantitatively describing the mechanisms in coal conversion behavior. Comprehensive computer codes for mechanistic modeling of entrained-bed gasification. Additional capabilities in predicting pollutant formation will be implemented and the technology will be expanded to fixed-bed reactors.

  14. Modeling and simulation support for ICRF heating of fusion plasmas. Annual report, 1990

    SciTech Connect

    1990-03-15

    Recent experimental, theoretical and computational results have shown the need and usefulness of a combined approach to the design, analysis and evaluation of ICH antenna configurations. The work at the University of Wisconsin (UW) in particular has shown that much needed information on the vacuum operation of ICH antennas can be obtained by a modest experimental and computational effort. These model experiments at UW and SAIC simulations have shown dramatically the potential for positive impact upon the ICRF program. Results of the UW-SAIC joint ICRF antenna analysis effort have been presented at several international meetings and numerous meetings in the United States. The PPPL bay M antenna has been modeled using the ARGUS code. The results of this effort are shown in Appendix C. SAIC has recently begun a collaboration with the ICRF antenna design and analysis group at ORNL. At present there are two separate projects underway. The first is associated with the simulation of and determination of the effect of adding slots in the antenna septum and side walls. The second project concerns the modeling and simulation of the ORNL folded waveguide (FWG) concept.

  15. Modeling circulation and thermal structure in Lake Michigan: Annual cycle and interannual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beletsky, Dmitry; Schwab, David J.

    2001-09-01

    A three-dimensional primitive equation numerical model was applied to Lake Michigan for the periods 1982-1983 and 1994-1995 to study seasonal and interannual variability of lake-wide circulation and thermal structure in the lake. The model was able to reproduce all of the basic features of the thermal structure in Lake Michigan: spring thermal bar, full stratification, deepening of the thermocline during the fall cooling, and finally, an overturn in the late fall. Large-scale circulation patterns tend to be cyclonic (counterclockwise), with cyclonic circulation within each subbasin. The largest currents and maximum cyclonic vorticity occur in the fall and winter when temperature gradients are low but wind stresses are strongest. The smallest currents and minimum cyclonic vorticity occur in spring and summer when temperature gradients are strong but wind stresses are weakest. All these facts are in agreement with observations. The main shortcoming of the model was that it tended to predict a more diffuse thermocline than was indicated by observations and explained only up to half of the variance observed in horizontal currents at timescales shorter than a day.

  16. Using an Ablation Gradient Model to Characterize Annual Glacial Melt Contribution to Major Rivers in High Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brodzik, M. J.; Armstrong, R. L.; Khalsa, S. J. S.; Painter, T. H.; Racoviteanu, A.; Rittger, K.

    2014-12-01

    Ice melt from mountain glaciers can represent a significant contribution to freshwater hydrological budgets, along with seasonal snow melt, rainfall and groundwater. In the rivers of High Asia, understanding the proportion of glacier ice melt is critical for water resource management of irrigation and planning for hydropower generation and human consumption. Current climate conditions are producing heterogeneous glacier responses across the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan ranges. However, it is not yet clear how contrasting glacier patterns affect regional water resources. For example, in the Upper Indus basin, estimates of glacial contribution to runoff are often not distinguished from seasonal snow contribution, and vary widely, from as little as 15% to as much as 55%. While many studies are based on reasonable concepts, most are based on assumptions uninformed by actual snow or ice cover measurements. While straightforward temperature index models have been used to estimate glacier runoff in some Himalayan basins, application of these models in larger Himalayan basins is limited by difficulties in estimating key model parameters, particularly air temperature. Estimating glacial area from the MODIS Permanent Snow and Ice Extent (MODICE) product for the years 2000-2013, with recently released Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTMGL3) elevation data, we use a simple ablation gradient approach to calculate an upper limit on the contribution of clean glacier ice melt to streamflow data. We present model results for the five major rivers with glaciated headwaters in High Asia: the Bramaputra, Ganges, Indus, Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Using GRDC historical discharge records, we characterize the annual contribution from glacier ice melt. We use MODICE interannual trends in each basin to estimate glacier ice melt uncertainties. Our results are being used in the USAID project, Contribution to High Asia Runoff from Ice and Snow (CHARIS), to inform regional-scale planning for

  17. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2011

    SciTech Connect

    David W. Nigg; Devin A. Steuhm

    2011-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or 'Core Modeling Update') Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its first full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (SCALE, KENO-6, HELIOS, NEWT, and ATTILA) have been installed at the INL under various permanent sitewide license agreements and corresponding baseline models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational, demonstrating the basic feasibility of these code packages for their intended purpose. Furthermore, a

  18. Towards a Process-based Representation of Annual Crops Within the Land Surface Model JULES

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van den Hoof, C.; Vidale, P.

    2008-05-01

    The purpose of this work is to introduce a generic crop structure within the Joint UK Land surface Exchange Scheme JULES (Cox, 1998) that is able to evaluate the interaction between growing crops and the environment at large scales for a wide range of atmospheric conditions. JULES was designed to simulate land surface processes in natural ecosystems. The importance of representing agricultural land within global biosphere models has been pointed out in many studies (De Noblet-Ducoudre et al., 2004; Bondeau 2005 et al.). Prior to any model development, the sensitivity of JULES to morphological and physiological differences between natural vegetation and crops has been investigated by reparameterising a natural C3 grass into a C3 crop. For a case study of fallow versus wheat at Grignon (France), the model output shows important soil water savings after crop harvest at the beginning of the summer. Owing to the lack of a rooting system, the deeper soil moisture cannot contribute anymore to the moisture flux to the atmosphere. On a shorter timescale, the harvest, and by consequence the sudden appearance of bare soil, also disrupt the energy and momentum fluxes between surface and atmosphere. Having established the sensitivity of the JULES system to a crop-like forcing, some components from the crop model SUCROS (Goudriaan and van Laar, 1994) that are relevant to the global water, energy and carbon cycles, have been introduced in JULES. The new version of JULES, denoted by JULES-SUCROS, incorporates crops and natural vegetation within a single modelling framework, without discontinuity in the photosynthesis-assimilation scheme between both vegetation types. Simulations have been performed with JULES-SUCROS for wheat at the Grignon site in current and doubled CO2 atmospheric conditions. Changing atmospheric conditions in JULES-SUCROS affects the sowing date and the length of the growing season. The results show that the positive effect of the CO2 fertilisation partly

  19. The modeling of complex continua: Fundamental obstacles and grand challenges. Annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    The research is divided into: discontinuities and adaptive computation, chaotic flows, dispersion of flow in porous media, and nonlinear waves and nonlinear materials. The research program has emphasized innovative computation and theory. The approach depends on abstracting mathematical concepts and computational methods from individual applications to a wide range of problems involving complex continua. The generic difficulties in the modeling of continua that guide this abstraction are multiple length and time scales, microstructures (bubbles, droplets, vortices, crystal defects), and chaotic or random phenomena described by a statistical formulation.

  20. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2010

    SciTech Connect

    Rahmat Aryaeinejad; Douglas S. Crawford; Mark D. DeHart; George W. Griffith; D. Scott Lucas; Joseph W. Nielsen; David W. Nigg; James R. Parry; Jorge Navarro

    2010-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or “Core Modeling Update”) Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  1. Annual report, October 1980-September 1981 Multimedia radionuclide exposure assessment modeling.

    SciTech Connect

    Whelan, G.; Onishi, Y.; Simmons, C.S.; Horst, T.W.; Gupta, S.K.; Orgill, M.M.; Newbill, C.A.

    1982-12-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) are jointly developing a methodology for assessing exposures of the air, water, and plants to radionuclides as part of an overall development effort of a radionuclide disposal site evaluation methodology. Work in FY-1981 continued the development of the Multimedia Contaminant Environmental Exposure Assessment (MCEA) methodology and initiated an assessment of radionuclide migration in Los Alamos and Pueblo Canyons, New Mexico, using the methodology. The AIRTRAN model was completed, briefly tested, and documented. In addition, a literature search for existing validation data for AIRTRAN was performed. The feasibility and advisability of including the UNSAT moisture flow model as a submodel of the terrestrial code BIOTRAN was assessed. A preliminary application of the proposed MCEA methodology, as it related to the Mortandad-South Mortandad Canyon site in New Mexico is discussed. This preliminary application represented a scaled-down version of the methodology in which only the terrestrial, overland, and surface water components were used. An update describing the progress in the assessment of radionuclide migration in Los Alamos and Pueblo Canyons is presented. 38 references, 47 figures, 11 tables.

  2. Modelling Growth and Partitioning of Annual Above-Ground Vegetative and Reproductive Biomass of Grapevine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meggio, Franco; Vendrame, Nadia; Maniero, Giovanni; Pitacco, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    In the current climate change scenarios, both agriculture and forestry inherently may act as carbon sinks and consequently can play a key role in limiting global warming. An urgent need exists to understand which land uses and land resource types have the greatest potential to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global change. A common believe is that agricultural fields cannot be net carbon sinks due to many technical inputs and repeated disturbances of upper soil layers that all contribute to a substantial loss both of the old and newly-synthesized organic matter. Perennial tree crops (vineyards and orchards), however, can behave differently: they grow a permanent woody structure, stand undisturbed in the same field for decades, originate a woody pruning debris, and are often grass-covered. In this context, reliable methods for quantifying and modelling emissions and carbon sequestration are required. Carbon stock changes are calculated by multiplying the difference in oven dry weight of biomass increments and losses with the appropriate carbon fraction. These data are relatively scant, and more information is needed on vineyard management practices and how they impact vineyard C sequestration and GHG emissions in order to generate an accurate vineyard GHG footprint. During the last decades, research efforts have been made for estimating the vineyard carbon budget and its allocation pattern since it is crucial to better understand how grapevines control the distribution of acquired resources in response to variation in environmental growth conditions and agronomic practices. The objective of the present study was to model and compare the dynamics of current year's above-ground biomass among four grapevine varieties. Trials were carried out over three growing seasons in field conditions. The non-linear extra-sums-of-squares method demonstrated to be a feasible way of growth models comparison to statistically assess significant differences among

  3. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2012

    SciTech Connect

    David W. Nigg, Principal Investigator; Kevin A. Steuhm, Project Manager

    2012-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to properly verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the next anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014-2015 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its third full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (HELIOS, KENO6/SCALE, NEWT/SCALE, ATTILA, and an extended implementation of MCNP5) has been installed at the INL under various licensing arrangements. Corresponding models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational with all five codes, demonstrating the basic feasibility of the new code packages for their intended purpose. Of particular importance, a set of as-run core

  4. Annual carbon dioxide cycle in a montane soil: observations, modeling, and implications for weathering

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, D.K.; Cerling, T.E.

    1987-12-01

    Profiles of CO/sub 2/ concentrations in soil and snow, soil respiration, soil and snow temperatures, and shallow ground water chemistry were monitored from March 1984 to July 1985 in a montane region neat Brighton, Utah. Significant seasonal variations in the concentrations of CO/sub 2/ in soil and snow occurred, and two principal rise-decline cycles were observed. During the first cycle the concentration of soil CO/sub 2/ at 35 cm rose from 4200 ppmv in July to a maximum of 12,400 ppmv in August and then declined to 4300 ppmv by October. This cycle is attributed to the changing production rate of soil CO/sub 2/ during the growing season. During the second cycle the concentration of CO/sub 2/ at 35 cm began to rise in November, reached a maximum of 7200 ppmv in early spring, and quickly declined to 3200 ppmv by late spring shortly after the snow cover had melted. This cycle is attributed to deterioration in the exchange of CO/sub 2/ between the soil and atmosphere due to a deep snowpack. A model based on Fick's second law of diffusion was developed to account for the temporal and spatial distribution of soil CO/sub 2/. The model predicts that soil CO/sub 2/ at 35 cm is increased by as much as 15 times due to the deep snowpack. The elevated concentration of soil CO/sub 2/, abundance of water, and above-freezing soil temperatures imply that significant soil weathering occurs during the winter in montane regions.

  5. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2013

    SciTech Connect

    David W. Nigg

    2013-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for effective application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  6. High-temperature pyrolysis mechanisms of coal model compounds. 1990 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Penn, J.H.; Owens, W.H.

    1991-01-01

    The degradation of the carboxylic acid group has been examined with respect to potential pretreatment strategies for fossil fuel conversion processes. In one potential pretreatment strategy involving cation exchange of the carboxylic acid group, a series of benzoic acid and stearic acid salts have been chosen to model the ``tight`` carboxylic acids of immature fossil fuel feedstocks and have been pyrolyzed with an entrained flow reactor. Our preliminary results indicate that Group I and II salts yield primarily the parent acid. Benzoate salts also yield small amounts of benzene while the stearic acid salts give no other detectable products. In two alternative treatment strategies, esterification and anhydride preparation have also been accomplished with these compounds being subjected to the entrained flow reactor conditions. The benzoate esters give a number of products, such as benzaldehyde, benzene, and low MW gases. The formation of these compounds is extremely dependent on pyrolysis conditions and alkoxy chain length. A xenon flashlamp and an entrained flow reactor have been used to heat organic substrates to varying temperatures using different heating rates. Ultrarapid flashlamp pyrolysis (heating rate>10{sup 50}C/s) has been performed. Since the ultrarapid pyrolysis products differ from those observed with traditional heating techniques and differ from the products formed photochemically, the flashlamp pyrolysis products are attributed to high temperature thermal activation.

  7. Management by Objectives and Program Planning and Budgeting Systems: A Guidebook for Developing a Model Local Annual Plan and a Model Local Five-Year Plan for Vocational Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ignas, Edward

    The guidebook is intended to acquaint vocational educators with two specific management strategies: Management by Objectives (MBO) and the Program Planning and Budget System (PPBS). The long range goal of this project is the formation of a model local annual plan and model five year plan for vocational education in local school districts…

  8. Modelling deposition and air concentration of reduced nitrogen in Poland and sensitivity to variability in annual meteorology.

    PubMed

    Kryza, Maciej; Dore, Anthony J; Błaś, Marek; Sobik, Mieczysław

    2011-04-01

    The relative contribution of reduced nitrogen to acid and eutrophic deposition in Europe has increased recently as a result of European policies which have been successful in reducing SO(2) and NO(x) emissions but have had smaller impacts on ammonia (NH(3)) emissions. In this paper the Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model was used to calculate the spatial patterns of annual average ammonia and ammonium (NH(4)(+)) air concentrations and reduced nitrogen (NH(x)) dry and wet deposition with a 5 km × 5 km grid for years 2002-2005. The modelled air concentrations of NH(3) and dry deposition of NH(x) show similar spatial patterns for all years considered. The largest year to year changes were found for wet deposition, which vary considerably with precipitation amount. The FRAME modelled air concentrations and wet deposition are in reasonable agreement with available measurements (Pearson's correlation coefficients above 0.6 for years 2002-2005), and with spatial patterns of concentrations and deposition of NH(x) reported with the EMEP results, but show larger spatial gradients. The error statistics show that the FRAME model results are in better agreement with measurements if compared with EMEP estimates. The differences in deposition budgets calculated with FRAME and EMEP do not exceed 17% for wet and 6% for dry deposition, with FRAME estimates higher than for EMEP wet deposition for modelled period and lower or equal for dry deposition. The FRAME estimates of wet deposition budget are lower than the measurement-based values reported by the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection of Poland, with the differences by approximately 3%. Up to 93% of dry and 53% of wet deposition of NH(x) in Poland originates from national sources. Over the western part of Poland and mountainous areas in the south, transboundary transport can contribute over 80% of total (dry + wet) NH(x) deposition. The spatial pattern of the relative contribution of

  9. Using flowering and heat-loss models for improving greenhouse energy-use efficiency in annual bedding plant production

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In temperate climates, annual bedding plants are typically produced in heated greenhouses from late winter through early summer. Temperature, photoperiod, light intensity, and transplant date are commonly manipulated during commercial production so that plants are in flower for predetermined market ...

  10. Annual Crop Type Classification of the U.S. Great Plains for 2000 - 2011: An Application of Classification Tree Modeling using Remote Sensing and Ancillary Environmental Data (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howard, D. M.; Wylie, B. K.

    2013-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to increase spatial and temporal availability of crop classification data using reliable source data that have the potential of being applied on local, regional, national, and global levels. This study implemented classification tree modeling to map annual crop types throughout the U.S. Great Plains from 2000 - 2011. Classification tree modeling has been shown in numerous studies to be an effective tool for developing classification models. In this study, nearly 18 million crop observation points, derived from annual U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) Cropland Data Layers (CDLs), were used in the training, development, and validation of a classification tree crop type model (CTM). Each observation point was further defined by weekly Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) readings, annual climatic conditions, soil conditions, and a number of other biogeophysical environmental characteristics. The CTM accounted for the most prevalent crop types in the area, including, corn, soybeans, winter wheat, spring wheat, cotton, sorghum, and alfalfa. Other crops that did not fit into any of these classes were identified and grouped into a miscellaneous class. An 87% success rate was achieved on the classification of 1.8 million observation points (10% of total observation points) that were withheld from training. The CTM was applied to create annual crop maps of the U.S. Great Plains for 2000 - 2011 at a spatial resolution of 250 meters. Product validation was performed by comparing county acreage derived from the modeled crop maps and county acreage data from the USDA NASS Survey Program for each crop type and each year. Greater than 15,000 county records from 2001 - 2010 were compared with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of r = 0.87.

  11. The dynamic of annual carbon allocation to wood in European forests is consistent with a combined source-sink limitation of growth: implications for modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillemot, J.; Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Dufrêne, E.; François, C.; Soudani, K.; Ourcival, J. M.; Delpierre, N.

    2015-02-01

    The extent to which forest growth is limited by carbon (C) supply (source control) or by cambial activity (sink control) will condition the response of trees to global changes. However, the physiological processes responsible for the limitation of forest growth are still under debate. The aim of this study is to evaluate the key drivers of the annual carbon allocation to wood along large soil and climate regional gradients in five tree species representative of the main European forest biomes (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea, Quercus ilex, Quercus robur and Picea abies). Combining field measurements and process-based simulations at 49 sites (931 site-years), we assessed the stand biomass growth dependences at both inter-site and inter-annual scales. Specifically, the relative influence of forest C balance (source control), direct environmental control (water and temperature controls of sink activity) and allocation adjustments related to age, past climate conditions, competition intensity and soil nutrient availability on growth were quantified. The inter-site variability in stand C allocation to wood was predominantly driven by an age-related decline. The direct control of temperature or water stress on sink activity (i.e. independently from their effects on C supply) exerted a strong influence on the annual stand woody growth in all the species considered, including deciduous temperate species. The lagged effect of the past environment conditions was a significant driver of the annual C allocation to wood. Carbon supply appeared to strongly limit growth only in deciduous temperate species. We provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of annual carbon allocation to wood in European forests. Our study supports the premise that European forest growth is under a complex control including both source and sink limitations. The relative influences of the different growth drivers strongly vary across years and spatial ecological gradients. We suggest a

  12. The Gulf Survey on Anemia Management (GSAM 2005).

    PubMed

    Alsuwaida, Abdulkareem; Abdulkareem, Ali; Alwakeel, Jamal

    2007-06-01

    We conducted this study to determine the achievements of the current practice guidelines in the management of anemia in the Arabian Gulf Countries. The survey was designed as a retrospective, one day screening of adult patients with end-stage renal disease in six Arabian Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Data were collected on patients undergoing chronic dialysis. For random patient sampling, each participating center drew up an alphabetical list of all hemodialysis (HD) or peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients which were 18 years or older and selected every fourth patient on the list. A total of 563 patients from 18 centers were included in the survey. The most common cause of end-stage renal failure was diabetic nephropathy, closely followed by chronic glomerulonephritis. The majority of patients were treated by HD, with only 20% receiving PD. The mean (+/-SD) hemoglobin (Hgb) concentration was 115 +/- 15 g/L (median, 115 g/L; range, 61-159 g/L). The Hgb concentration was > or = 110 g/L in 28%, > or = 120 g/L in 38% and < 100 g/L in 16%. Information on their iron status was available for 97% of patients, ferritin levels were available for 97% and TSAT values for 67% were available. The mean serum ferritin concentration for the study patients was 503 +/- 406 ng/ml (median, 390 ng/ml; range, 20.0-2960 ng/ml); 90.5% had a serum ferritin concentration > 100 ng/ml. We conclude that the results of our study demonstrate anemia management in the Gulf countries which is comparable to the European Survey on Anemia Management 2003 (ESAM 2003). However, many patients still have not reached the current recommendation of anemia management.

  13. Influences of Seaway and CO2 Changes during the Pliocene on Tropical Pacific Sector Climate in the Kiel Climate Model: Mean Sate, Annual Cycle, ENSO, and their Interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Zhaoyang; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib; Krebs-Kanzow, Uta; Schneider, Birgit

    2016-04-01

    The opening and closing of seaways can have a profound impact on global and regional climate. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific interannual variability in the present-day climate. Available proxy evidence suggests that ENSO also existed during past climates, for example during the Pliocene extending from about 5.3 million to about 2.6 million years BP. We investigate the influences of the Panama Seaway closing and Indonesian Passages narrowing, and of carbon dioxide (CO2) changes during the Pliocene on tropical Pacific mean climate, annual cycle and ENSO. The Kiel Climate Model (KCM) is employed to study the influences of the changing geometry and CO2-concentration. We find that ENSO is sensitive to the closing of the Panama Seaway, with ENSO amplitude being reduced by about 15% - 20%. The narrowing of the Indonesian Passages marginally enhances ENSO strength by about 6%. ENSO period changes are modest in all experiments. Annual cycle changes are prominent. The annual cycle in the eastern tropical Pacific intensifies by about 50% in response to the closing of the Panama Seaway, which is largely attributed to the strengthening of meridional wind stress. Bjerknes stability index (BSI) analysis suggests that the growth rate of the ENSO mode does not significantly change due to compensating changes in ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, especially dynamical damping and thermocline feedback. A robust inverse relationship is found between ENSO strength and the strength of the annual cycle.

  14. Annual research briefs, 1994

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    Briefs of the 1994 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulence Research are presented. Subjects covered include turbulence combustion, large eddy simulation, Reynolds-averaged turbulence modeling, turbulence control, postprocessing, sound generation, and turbulence physics.

  15. The dynamic of the annual carbon allocation to wood in European tree species is consistent with a combined source-sink limitation of growth: implications for modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillemot, J.; Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Dufrene, E.; Francois, C.; Soudani, K.; Ourcival, J. M.; Delpierre, N.

    2015-05-01

    appeared to strongly limit growth only in temperate deciduous species. We provide an evaluation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the annual C allocation to wood in French forests. Our study supports the premise that the growth of European tree species is subject to complex control processes that include both source and sink limitations. The relative influences of the growth drivers strongly vary with time and across spatial ecological gradients. We suggest a straightforward modelling framework with which to implement these combined forest growth limitations into terrestrial biosphere models.

  16. Current and future carbon export by the Connecticut River: using streamflow data archives and rating curves to model annual and seasonal constituent loads under future discharge scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petsch, S.; Armfield, J. R.

    2013-12-01

    a result, DOC, POC and TSS export are heavily skewed towards spring discharge events, and effective discharge for these constituents is most likely to occur in spring. A Monte Carlo simulation of annual and seasonal discharge was developed from a probability distribution of the log-transformed mean and standard deviation of the daily discharge archive. This model was used to generate estimates of annual and seasonal export of TSS, POC and DOC, C/N ratios and weight % OC. Future changes in discharge were simulated in the model to examine effects on constituent loads. For example, shifts to more winter and less spring discharge to mimic less snowpack and spring freshet results in substantially greater TSS and POC export. Increased summer and fall discharge to mimic increases in tropical storms yields only modest increases in constituent export, due to the overall low discharge values during these seasons. These results highlight the importance of long-term streamflow and constituent datasets in determining current annual and seasonal carbon export from river systems, and for generating predictions of changes in carbon export the result from future hydrological and climatic change.

  17. Quantification and attribution of errors in the simulated annual gross primary production and latent heat fluxes by two global land surface models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duan, Q.; Li, J.; Wang, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Divergence among the predictions by different global land models has not decreased over the last three assessment reports by the International Panel on Climate Change. Quantification and attribution of the uncertainties of global land surface models are important for the next phase of model improvement and development, is therefore the focus of this study. There are three sources of model uncertainties: model inputs, parameter values and model structure. Here we focus on the errors in model parameters by comparing the differences between the simulated global gross primary productivity (GPP) and latent heat flux (LE) by two global land surface models and model-data products of global GPP and LE from 1982-2005. We found that the performance of simulated annual GPP or LE by both models is most sensitive to 2 to 9 model parameters screened out by Morris method for each plant functional type (PFT). Using ensemble simulations, we applied RS-HDMR method to verify the Morris sensitivity results, and implied that about 60% of the variances of model errors in some PFTs are attributed to the sensitive parameters. We selected the combination of key parameter values that minimized the monthly errors of GPP and LE for each. Our study shows that significant improvement of model predictions can be made through parameter optimization using observations.

  18. Inter-annual snow accumulation and melt patterns in a sub-alpine mixed conifer forest: results from a distributed physically based snow model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musselman, K. N.; Molotch, N. P.; Margulis, S. A.; Kirchner, P. B.; Bales, R. C.

    2011-12-01

    Seasonally snow covered mid-latitude forests may be highly sensitive to climate change as they often overlap or reside near the present-day synoptic mean rain-snow transition zone. Limited capabilities of satellite remote sensing in forested, steep terrain combined with sparse in-situ observations emphasize the need for improved numerical simulations of the distribution of snow water equivalent in these regions. The land surface / snowmelt model Alpine3D was used to simulate snow accumulation and melt in the 7.22 km2 sub-alpine Wolverton basin in the southern Sierra Nevada, California. The basin is part of the Southern Sierra Nevada Critical Zone Observatory. Results from three snow seasons were evaluated against data from a distributed network of automated snow depth sensors, repeated catchment-wide snow survey measurements conducted in 2008 and 2009, and LiDAR data from 2010. Compared to the local 86-year historical record, the three years of observation accumulated average (2008), 48% below average (2009) and 43% above average (2010) maximum annual SWE. A mid-winter rain-on-snow event occurred in both 2008 and 2009. The inter-annual variability in maximum SWE combined with inter-annual differences in the timing and type of precipitation events, the timing of seasonal melt onset, and differences in the persistence of spring cloud cover caused significant inter-annual variability in areal snow cover depletion rates. In 2009, the year with the least precipitation, the most spring cloud cover, and a basin-wide late-January rain event, SWE patterns exhibited the least spatial variability and areal snow cover depletion was rapid. Conversely, the greatest spatial variability in SWE was simulated in 2010, the year with the most precipitation, no rain events, and a melt season that extended into early summer. The areal snow cover depletion curve for this year exhibited a rapid exponential phase as in 2009, but a distinctly different transitional phase as deep snow cover

  19. Evaluation of SDSM developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling temperature and precipitation in the Jhelum basin, Pakistan and India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmood, Rashid; Babel, Mukand S.

    2013-07-01

    The study evaluates statistical downscaling model (SDSM) developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation, and assesses future changes in climate in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan and India. Additionally, bias correction is applied on downscaled climate variables. The mean explained variances of 66, 76, and 11 % for max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation, respectively, are obtained during calibration of SDSM with NCEP predictors, which are selected through a quantitative procedure. During validation, average R 2 values by the annual sub-model (SDSM-A)—followed by bias correction using NCEP, H3A2, and H3B2—lie between 98.4 and 99.1 % for both max and min temperature, and 77 to 85 % for precipitation. As for the monthly sub-model (SDSM-M), followed by bias correction, average R 2 values lie between 98.5 and 99.5 % for both max and min temperature and 75 to 83 % for precipitation. These results indicate a good applicability of SDSM-A and SDSM-M for downscaling max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation under H3A2 and H3B2 scenarios for future periods of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in this basin. Both sub-models show a mean annual increase in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation. Under H3A2, and according to both sub-models, changes in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation are projected as 0.91-3.15 °C, 0.93-2.63 °C, and 6-12 %, and under H3B2, the values of change are 0.69-1.92 °C, 0.56-1.63 °C, and 8-14 % in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. These results show that the climate of the basin will be warmer and wetter relative to the baseline period. SDSM-A, most of the time, projects higher changes in climate than SDSM-M. It can also be concluded that although SDSM-A performed well in predicting mean annual values, it cannot be used with regard to monthly and seasonal variations, especially in the case of precipitation unless correction is applied.

  20. Building a field- and model-based climatology of local water and energy cycles in the cultivated Sahel - annual budgets and seasonality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velluet, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Braud, I.; Issoufou, H. B.-A.; Boulain, N.; Ramier, D.; Mainassara, I.; Charvet, G.; Boucher, M.; Chazarin, J.-P.; Oï, M.; Yahou, H.; Maidaji, B.; Arpin-Pont, F.; Benarrosh, N.; Mahamane, A.; Nazoumou, Y.; Favreau, G.; Seghieri, J.

    2014-05-01

    In the African Sahel, energy and water cycling at the land surface is pivotal for regional climate, water resources and land productivity, yet it is still extremely poorly documented. As a step towards a comprehensive climatological description of surface fluxes in this area, this study provides estimates of average annual budgets and seasonal cycles for two main land use types of the cultivated Sahelian belt, rainfed millet crop and fallow bush. These estimates build on the combination of a 7 year field dataset from two typical plots in southwestern Niger with detailed physically-based soil-plant-atmosphere modelling, yielding a continuous, comprehensive set of water and energy flux and storage variables over the 7 year period. In this study case in particular, blending field data with mechanistic modelling is considered as making best use of available data and knowledge for such purpose. It extends observations by reconstructing missing data and extrapolating to unobserved variables or periods. Furthermore, model constraining with observations compromises between extraction of observational information content and integration of process understanding, hence accounting for data imprecision and departure from physical laws. Climatological averages of all water and energy variables, with associated sampling uncertainty, are derived at annual to subseasonal scales from the 7 year series produced. Similarities and differences in the two ecosystems behaviors are highlighted. Mean annual evapotranspiration is found to represent ~82-85% of rainfall for both systems, but with different soil evaporation/plant transpiration partitioning and different seasonal distribution. The remainder consists entirely of runoff for the fallow, whereas drainage and runoff stand in a 40-60% proportion for the millet field. These results should provide a robust reference for the surface energy- and water-related studies needed in this region. The model developed in this context has the

  1. Building a field- and model-based climatology of local water and energy cycles in the cultivated Sahel - annual budgets and seasonality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velluet, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Braud, I.; Issoufou, H. B.-A.; Boulain, N.; Ramier, D.; Mainassara, I.; Charvet, G.; Boucher, M.; Chazarin, J.-P.; Oï, M.; Yahou, H.; Maidaji, B.; Arpin-Pont, F.; Benarrosh, N.; Mahamane, A.; Nazoumou, Y.; Favreau, G.; Seghieri, J.

    2014-12-01

    In the sub-Saharan Sahel, energy and water cycling at the land surface is pivotal for the regional climate, water resources and land productivity, yet it is still very poorly documented. As a step towards a comprehensive climatological description of surface fluxes in this area, this study provides estimates of long-term average annual budgets and seasonal cycles for two main land use types of the cultivated Sahelian belt: rainfed millet crop and fallow bush. These estimates build on the combination of a 7-year field data set from two typical plots in southwestern Niger with detailed physically based soil-plant-atmosphere modeling, yielding a continuous, comprehensive set of water and energy flux and storage variables over this multiyear period. In the present case in particular, blending field data with mechanistic modeling makes the best use of available data and knowledge for the construction of the multivariate time series. Rather than using the model only to gap-fill observations into a composite series, model-data integration is generalized homogeneously over time by generating the whole series with the entire data-constrained model simulation. Climatological averages of all water and energy variables, with associated sampling uncertainty, are derived at annual to sub-seasonal scales from the time series produced. Similarities and differences in the two ecosystem behaviors are highlighted. Mean annual evapotranspiration is found to represent ~82-85% of rainfall for both systems, but with different soil evaporation/plant transpiration partitioning and different seasonal distribution. The remainder consists entirely of runoff for the fallow, whereas drainage and runoff stand in a 40-60% proportion for the millet field. These results should provide a robust reference for the surface energy- and water-related studies needed in this region. Their significance and the benefits they gain from the innovative data-model integration approach are thoroughly discussed

  2. Annual research briefs, 1989

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

    1990-01-01

    This report contains the 1989 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows of the Center for Turbulence Research. It is intended as a year end report to NASA, Ames Research Center which supports this group through core funding and by making available physical and intellectual resources. The Center for Turbulence Research is devoted to the fundamental study of turbulent flows; its objectives are to simulate advances in the physical understanding of turbulence, in turbulence modeling and simulation, and in turbulence control. The reports appearing in the following pages are grouped in the general areas of modeling, experimental research, theory, simulation and numerical methods, and compressible and reacting flows.

  3. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea: model results against satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dvornikov, Anton; Sein, Dmitry; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Gorchakov, Victor; Pugalova, Svetlana

    2015-04-01

    This study is aimed at modelling the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea in the modern period. Adequate description of marine ecosystems in the ice-covered seas crucially depends on the accuracy in determining of thicknesses of ice and snow on the sea surface which control penetrating photosynthetically active radiation under the ice. One of the few models of ice able to adequately reproduce the dynamics of sea ice is the sea ice model HELMI [1], containing 7 different categories of ice. This model has been imbedded into the Princeton Ocean Model. With this coupled model 2 runs for the period 1998-2007 were performed under different atmospheric forcing prescribed from NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 archives. For prescribing conditions at the open boundary, all the necessary information about the horizontal velocity, level, temperature and salinity of the water, ice thickness and compactness was taken from the results of the global ocean general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg, Germany) MPIOM [2]. The resulting solution with NCEP forcing with a high accuracy simulates the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from MODIS data. The maximum difference between the calculated and satellite-derived SSTs (averaged over 4 selected areas of the Barents Sea) during the period 2000-2007 does not exceed 1.5 °C. Seasonal and inter-annual variations in the area of ice cover are also in good agreement with satellite-derived estimates. Pelagic ecosystem model developed in [3] has been coupled into the above hydrodynamic model and used to calculate the changes in the characteristics of marine ecosystems under NCEP forcing. Preliminarily the ecosystem model has been improved by introducing a parameterization of detritus deposition on the bottom and through the selection of optimal parameters for photosynthesis and zooplankton grazing

  4. Simulation of annual biogeochemical cycles of nutrient balance, phytoplankton bloom(s), and DO in Puget Sound using an unstructured grid model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khangaonkar, Tarang; Sackmann, Brandon; Long, Wen; Mohamedali, Teizeen; Roberts, Mindy

    2012-09-01

    Nutrient pollution from rivers, nonpoint source runoff, and nearly 100 wastewater discharges is a potential threat to the ecological health of Puget Sound with evidence of hypoxia in some basins. However, the relative contributions of loads entering Puget Sound from natural and anthropogenic sources, and the effects of exchange flow from the Pacific Ocean are not well understood. Development of a quantitative model of Puget Sound is thus presented to help improve our understanding of the annual biogeochemical cycles in this system using the unstructured grid Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model framework and the Integrated Compartment Model (CE-QUAL-ICM) water quality kinetics. Results based on 2006 data show that phytoplankton growth and die-off, succession between two species of algae, nutrient dynamics, and dissolved oxygen in Puget Sound are strongly tied to seasonal variation of temperature, solar radiation, and the annual exchange and flushing induced by upwelled Pacific Ocean waters. Concentrations in the mixed outflow surface layer occupying approximately 5-20 m of the upper water column show strong effects of eutrophication from natural and anthropogenic sources, spring and summer algae blooms, accompanied by depleted nutrients but high dissolved oxygen levels. The bottom layer reflects dissolved oxygen and nutrient concentrations of upwelled Pacific Ocean water modulated by mixing with biologically active surface outflow in the Strait of Juan de Fuca prior to entering Puget Sound over the Admiralty Inlet. The effect of reflux mixing at the Admiralty Inlet sill resulting in lower nutrient and higher dissolved oxygen levels in bottom waters of Puget Sound than the incoming upwelled Pacific Ocean water is reproduced. By late winter, with the reduction in algal activity, water column constituents of interest, were renewed and the system appeared to reset with cooler temperature, higher nutrient, and higher dissolved oxygen waters from the Pacific Ocean.

  5. Simulation of annual biogeochemical cycles of nutrient balance, phytoplankton bloom(s), and DO in Puget Sound using an unstructured grid model

    SciTech Connect

    Khangaonkar, Tarang; Sackmann, Brandon; Long, Wen; Mohamedali, Teizeen; Roberts, Mindy

    2012-08-14

    Nutrient pollution from rivers, nonpoint source runoff, and nearly 100 wastewater discharges is a potential threat to the ecological health of Puget Sound with evidence of hypoxia in some basins. However, the relative contributions of loads entering Puget Sound from natural and anthropogenic sources, and the effects of exchange flow from the Pacific Ocean are not well understood. Development of a quantitative model of Puget Sound is thus presented to help improve our understanding of the annual biogeochemical cycles in this system using the unstructured grid Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model framework and the Integrated Compartment Model (CE-QUAL-ICM) water quality kinetics. Results based on 2006 data show that phytoplankton growth and die-off, succession between two species of algae, nutrient dynamics, and dissolved oxygen in Puget Sound are strongly tied to seasonal variation of temperature, solar radiation, and the annual exchange and flushing induced by upwelled Pacific Ocean waters. Concentrations in the mixed outflow surface layer occupying approximately 5–20 m of the upper water column show strong effects of eutrophication from natural and anthropogenic sources, spring and summer algae blooms, accompanied by depleted nutrients but high dissolved oxygen levels. The bottom layer reflects dissolved oxygen and nutrient concentrations of upwelled Pacific Ocean water modulated by mixing with biologically active surface outflow in the Strait of Juan de Fuca prior to entering Puget Sound over the Admiralty Inlet. The effect of reflux mixing at the Admiralty Inlet sill resulting in lower nutrient and higher dissolved oxygen levels in bottom waters of Puget Sound than the incoming upwelled Pacific Ocean water is reproduced. Finally, by late winter, with the reduction in algal activity, water column constituents of interest, were renewed and the system appeared to reset with cooler temperature, higher nutrient, and higher dissolved oxygen waters from the Pacific

  6. A comparison of three approaches to modeling leaf gas exchange in annually drought-stressed ponderosa pine forests.

    PubMed

    Misson, Laurent; Panek, Jeanne A; Goldstein, Allen H

    2004-05-01

    We tested, compared and modified three models of stomatal conductance at the leaf level in a forest ecosystem where drought stress is a major factor controlling forest productivity. The models were tested against 2 years (1999 and 2000) of leaf-level measurements on ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) growing in the Mediterranean climate of California, USA. The Ball, Woodrow and Berry (1987) (BWB) model was modified to account for soil water stress. Among the models, results of the modified BWB model were in the closest agreement with observations (r2 = 0.71). The Jarvis (1976) model showed systematic simulation errors related to vapor pressure deficit (r2 = 0.65). Results of the Williams, Rastetter, Fernandes et al. (1996) (SPA) model showed the poorest correlation with empirical data, but this model has only one calibration parameter (r2 = 0.60). Sensitivity analyses showed that, in all three models, predictions of stomatal conductance were most responsive to photosynthetically active radiation and soil water content. Stomatal conductance showed little sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit in the Jarvis model, whereas in both the BWB and SPA models, vapor pressure deficit (or relative humidity) was the third most important variable. Parameterization of the SPA model was in accordance with the parameterization of the modified BWB model, although the two models differ greatly. Measured and modeled results indicate that stomatal behavior is not water conservative during spring; however, during summer, when soil water content is low and vapor pressure deficit is high, stomatal conductance decreases and, according to the models, intrinsic water- use efficiency increases.

  7. Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data - Part 2: Estimation and uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

    2014-05-01

    Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to approximate within-GCM uncertainty of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and assess its impact on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. To-date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2014) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from CMIP3 for use in this paper. Here we present within- and between-GCM uncertainty results in mean annual precipitation (MAP), temperature (MAT) and runoff (MAR), the standard deviation of annual precipitation (SDP) and runoff (SDR) and reservoir yield for five CMIP3 GCMs at 17 world-wide catchments. Based on 100

  8. Bring in the genes: genetic-ecophysiological modeling of the adaptive response of trees to environmental change. With application to the annual cycle

    PubMed Central

    Kramer, Koen; van der Werf, Bert; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan

    2015-01-01

    The observation of strong latitudinal clines in the date of bud burst of tree species indicate that populations of these species are genetically adapted to local environmental conditions. Existing phenological models rarely address this clinal variation, so that adaptive responses of tree populations to changes in environmental conditions are not taken into account, e.g., in models on species distributions that use phenological sub-models. This omission of simulating adaptive response in tree models may over- or underestimate the effects of climate change on tree species distributions, as well as the impacts of climate change on tree growth and productivity. Here, we present an approach to model the adaptive response of traits to environmental change based on an integrated process-based eco-physiological and quantitative genetic model of adaptive traits. Thus, the parameter values of phenological traits are expressed in genetic terms (allele effects and—frequencies, number of loci) for individual trees. These individual trees thereby differ in their ability to acquire resources, grow and reproduce as described by the process-based model, leading to differential survival. Differential survival is thus the consequence of both differences in parameters values and their genetic composition. By simulating recombination and dispersal of pollen, the genetic composition of the offspring will differ from that of their parents. Over time, the distribution of both trait values and the frequency of the underlying alleles in the population change as a consequence of changes in environmental drivers leading to adaptation of trees to local environmental conditions. This approach is applied to an individual-tree growth model that includes a phenological model on the annual cycle of trees whose parameters are allowed to adapt. An example of the adaptive response of the onset of the growing season across Europe is presented. PMID:25628628

  9. Budgeting Based on Results: A Return-on-Investment Model Contributes to More Effective Annual Spending Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Kelt L.

    2011-01-01

    One major problem in developing school district budgets immune to cuts is the model administrators traditionally use--an expenditure model. The simplicity of this model is seductive: What were the revenues and expenditures last year? What are the expected revenues and expenditures this year? A few adjustments here and there and one has a budget.…

  10. A Machine Learning Approach to Student Modeling. Technical Report No. 1. Annual Report, 11/82-11/83.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Langley, Pat; And Others

    The notion of buggy procedures has played an important role in recent cognitive models of mathematical skills. Some earlier work on student modeling used artificial intelligence methods to automatically construct buggy models of student behavior. An alternate approach, proposed here, draws on insights from the rapidly developing field of machine…

  11. Modeling effects of inter-annual variability in meteorological and land use conditions on coupled water and energy cycling in the cultivated African Sahel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velluet, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Braud, I.; Boulain, N.; Favreau, G.; Charvet, G.; Ramier, D.; Issoufou, H.; Boucher, M.; Mainassara, I.; Chazarin, J.; Oï, M.; Yahou, H.; Benarrosh, N.; Ibrahim, M.

    2012-12-01

    In the dry tropics in general and in the African Sahel in particular, hydro-ecosystems are very sensitive to climate variability and land management. In the Niamey region of South-West Niger, a severe multi-decadal drought together with large-scale vegetation clearing coincided with an unexpected increase in surface and ground water resources. Such an apparent paradoxical situation illustrates the complex way in which climate and land cover interactions control the Sahelian water cycle dynamics. This stresses the importance of understanding and reliably modeling water/energy transfers in the local soil-plant-atmosphere system, under contrasted meteorological and surface conditions. This study investigates the effects of the inter-annual variability of meteorological and land use conditions on the coupled water and energy cycles in the cultivated Sahel over a 5-year period. This is based on a comprehensive multi-year field dataset acquired for a millet crop field and a fallow savannah, the two main land cover types of South-West Niger (Wankama catchment in the mesoscale AMMA-CATCH Niger observatory, part of the French-initiated RBV network). It includes atmospheric forcing, seasonal course of vegetation phenology, soil properties and model validation variables (net radiation, turbulent fluxes, soil heat/water profiles), for the two fields. The study area is typical of Central Sahel conditions, with 400-600 mm annual rainfall concentrated in the 4-5 month wet season. Soils are mainly sandy and prone to surface crusting, leading to a strong vertical contrast in hydrodynamic properties. The SiSPAT process-based model used solves the 1D mass and heat transfer system of equations in the soil, including vapor phase and coupled with a two-component (bare soil and vegetation) water and energy budget at the surface-atmosphere interface. The study explores whether such a model can be accurately calibrated and validated for the two sites using realistic-parameter values. The

  12. The Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO) as Upper Atmosphere Pacemaker for Generating the Large Solar Cycle Modulation of the QBO in the Stratosphere: Model Simulations and Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayr, H. G.; Lee, J. N.

    2014-12-01

    Very large solar cycle (SC) variations are observed in the zonal winds and temperatures of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The effect is too large to be produced by the small SC variations of the solar flux in the lower stratosphere. Dynamical downward coupling must be involved, and we present a review of the mechanism that emerged from studies with the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM). In the NSM, the QBO is generated with parameterized gravity waves and planetary waves. For a SC period of 10 years, the applied heat source varies exponentially with altitude: 0.2% (surface), 2% (50 km), 20% (100 km and above). With that solar forcing, the model reproduces qualitatively the SC modulations of the QBO zonal winds around the equator and temperature variations extending to high latitudes. The QBO is spawned in the lower mesosphere by a hemispherically symmetric equatorial annual oscillation (EAO) of the zonal wind velocities. Though small in magnitude, the SC modulation of the EAO is large. Like the symmetric QBO, the EAO extends into the lower atmosphere under the influence of, and amplified by, wave mean flow interactions. The amplitude modulations of the QBO and EAO are in phase with the imposed SC heat source. Essentially, the EAO provides the pathway and pacemaker for the SC modulation of the QBO - and wave interactions amplify the oscillations as they propagate down into the lower atmosphere. Analysis of NCEP temperature and zonal wind data (1958 to 2006) produces the hemispherically symmetric equatorial annual oscillation (EAO), and it contains spectral signatures with periods around 11 years. Moving windows of 44 years show that below 20 km the 11-year modulation of the EAO is phase locked to the SC. The spectral features from the 48-year data record reveal modulation signatures of 9.6 and 12 years, which produce EAO variations that mimic in limited altitude regimes the varying maxima and minima of the 10.7 cm solar index. In the lower stratosphere, the 40

  13. Modeling the Magnetic and Thermal Structure of Active Regions: 1st Year 1st Semi-Annual Progress Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mikic, Zoran

    2003-01-01

    This report covers technical progress during the first six months of the first year of NASA SR&T contract "Modeling the Magnetic and Thermal Structure of Active Regions", NASW-03008, between NASA and Science Applications International Corporation, and covers the period January 14, 2003 to July 13, 2003. Under this contract SAIC has conducted research into theoretical modeling of the properties of active regions using the MHD model.

  14. Modeling and Verification of Distributed Generation and Voltage Regulation Equipment for Unbalanced Distribution Power Systems; Annual Subcontract Report, June 2007

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, M. W.; Broadwater, R.; Hambrick, J.

    2007-07-01

    This report summarizes the development of models for distributed generation and distribution circuit voltage regulation equipment for unbalanced power systems and their verification through actual field measurements.

  15. Annual Research Briefs, 1990

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    The 1990 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulent Research (CTR) are included. It is intended primarily as a contractor report to NASA, Ames Research Center. In addition, numerous CTR Manuscript Reports were published last year. The purpose of the CTR Manuscript Series is to expedite the dissemination of research results by the CTR staff. The CTR is devoted to the fundamental study of turbulent flow; its objectives are to produce advances in physical understanding of turbulence, in turbulence modeling and simulation, and in turbulence control.

  16. A multiisotope C and N modeling analysis of soil organic matter turnover and transport as a function of soil depth in a California annual grassland soil chronosequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Baisden, W.T.; Amundson, Ronald; Brenner, D.L.; Cook, A.C.; Kendall, C.; Harden, J.W.

    2002-01-01

    We examine soil organic matter (SOM) turnover and transport using C and N isotopes in soil profiles sampled circa 1949, 1978, and 1998 (a period spanning pulse thermonuclear 14C enrichment of the atmosphere) along a 3-million-year annual grassland soil chronosequence. Temporal differences in soil ??14C profiles indicate that inputs of recently living organic matter (OM) occur primarily in the upper 20-30 cm but suggest that OM inputs can occur below the primary rooting zone. A three-pool SOM model with downward transport captures most observed variation in ??14C, percentages of C and N, ??13C, and ??15N, supporting the commonly accepted concept of three distinct SOM pools. The model suggests that the importance of the decadal SOM pool in N dynamics is greatest in young and old soils. Altered hydrology and possibly low pH and/or P dynamics in highly developed old soils cause changes in soil C and N turnover and transport of importance for soil biogeochemistry models.

  17. Using Novel Approaches in Process-Based Modeling for Interpreting Inter-Annual Variability in Tree Ring Widths, Wood Density Profiles, and Cellulose Isotopic Ratios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friend, A. D.; Babst, F.; Belmecheri, S.; Frank, D. C.; Hacket Pain, A. J.; Hayat, A.; Poulter, B.; Rademacher, T. T.; Trouet, V.

    2015-12-01

    Time series annual of tree ring width, density variation, and oxygen and carbon isotopic compositions have the potential to substantially increase our knowledge of forest responses to environmental variation. However, their interpretation is not straightforward due to the simultaneous influences of a number of confounding factors, including carry-over effects from previous years, variable resource allocation with size, age, and canopy position, species-specific physiologies, and complex interactions between forcings such as temperature, soil moisture, and atmospheric CO2. Here we attempt to tease these factors apart and so substantially improve the interpretability of tree ring archives through the construction and application of novel approaches within a process-based model of individual tree growth. The model incorporates descriptions of xylem cell division, expansion, and secondary wall thickening, apical and lateral meristem activities with internal controls from internal signals, internal carbon storage, and the dynamics of canopy photosynthesis, stomatal movements, evapotranspiration, canopy temperatures, and soil moisture. Alternative treatments of isotopic fractionation and growth controls are evaluated using measured datasets. We demonstrate how this new model approach can be used to assess the information contained in tree rings concerning the influence of increasing atmospheric CO2 over the past century on growth and water use efficiency at a range of sites.

  18. A revised linear ozone photochemistry parameterization for use in transport and general circulation models: multi-annual simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cariolle, D.; Teyssèdre, H.

    2007-01-01

    This article describes the validation of a linear parameterization of the ozone photochemistry for use in upper tropospheric and stratospheric studies. The present work extends a previously developed scheme by improving the 2D model used to derive the coefficients of the parameterization. The chemical reaction rates are updated from a compilation that includes recent laboratory works. Furthermore, the polar ozone destruction due to heterogeneous reactions at the surface of the polar stratospheric clouds is taken into account as a function of the stratospheric temperature and the total chlorine content. Two versions of the parameterization are tested. The first one only requires the resolution of a continuity equation for the time evolution of the ozone mixing ratio, the second one uses one additional equation for a cold tracer. The parameterization has been introduced into the chemical transport model MOCAGE. The model is integrated with wind and temperature fields from the ECMWF operational analyses over the period 2000-2004. Overall, the results show a very good agreement between the modelled ozone distribution and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite data and the "in-situ" vertical soundings. During the course of the integration the model does not show any drift and the biases are generally small. The model also reproduces fairly well the polar ozone variability, with notably the formation of "ozone holes" in the southern hemisphere with amplitudes and seasonal evolutions that follow the dynamics and time evolution of the polar vortex. The introduction of the cold tracer further improves the model simulation by allowing additional ozone destruction inside air masses exported from the high to the mid-latitudes, and by maintaining low ozone contents inside the polar vortex of the southern hemisphere over longer periods in spring time. It is concluded that for the study of climatic scenarios or the assimilation of ozone data, the present

  19. Annual Research Briefs, 1992

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

    1993-01-01

    This report contains the 1992 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulence Research. Considerable effort was focused on the large eddy simulation technique for computing turbulent flows. This increased activity has been inspired by the recent predictive successes of the dynamic subgrid scale modeling procedure which was introduced during the 1990 Summer Program. Several Research Fellows and students are presently engaged in both the development of subgrid scale models and their applications to complex flows. The first group of papers in this report contain the findings of these studies. They are followed by reports grouped in the general areas of modeling, turbulence physics, and turbulent reacting flows. The last contribution in this report outlines the progress made on the development of the CTR post-processing facility.

  20. Development of Improved Models and Designs for Coated-Particle Gas Reactor Fuels (I-NERI Annual Report)

    SciTech Connect

    Petti, David Andrew; Maki, John Thomas; Languille, Alain; Martin, Philippe; Ballinger, Ronald

    2002-11-01

    The objective of this INERI project is to develop improved fuel behavior models for gas reactor coated particle fuels and to develop improved coated-particle fuel designs that can be used reliably at very high burnups and potentially in fast gas-cooled reactors. Thermomechanical, thermophysical, and physiochemical material properties data were compiled by both the US and the French and preliminary assessments conducted. Comparison between U.S. and European data revealed many similarities and a few important differences. In all cases, the data needed for accurate fuel performance modeling of coated particle fuel at high burnup were lacking. The development of the INEEL fuel performance model, PARFUME, continued from earlier efforts. The statistical model being used to simulate the detailed finite element calculations is being upgraded and improved to allow for changes in fuel design attributes (e.g. thickness of layers, dimensions of kernel) as well as changes in important material properties to increase the flexibility of the code. In addition, modeling of other potentially important failure modes such as debonding and asphericity was started. A paper on the status of the model was presented at the HTR-2002 meeting in Petten, Netherlands in April 2002, and a paper on the statistical method was submitted to the Journal of Nuclear Material in September 2002. Benchmarking of the model against Japanese and an older DRAGON irradiation are planned. Preliminary calculations of the stresses in a coated particle have been calculated by the CEA using the ATLAS finite element model. This model and the material properties and constitutive relationships will be incorporated into a more general software platform termed Pleiades. Pleiades will be able to analyze different fuel forms at different scales (from particle to fuel body) and also handle the statistical variability in coated particle fuel. Diffusion couple experiments to study Ag and Pd transport through SiC were

  1. Demonstrating remediation by natural attenuation using numerical ground water models and annual ground water sampling. Book chapter

    SciTech Connect

    Vessely, M.; Moutoux, D.E.; Kampbell, D.; Hansen, J.E.

    1997-09-01

    Activities at a former fire training area at Westover Air Reserve Base (ARB) in Massachusetts resulted in contamination of shallow soils and ground water with a mixture of fuel hydrocarbons and chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons (CAHs). Extensive hydrogeologic and geochemical data were collected in May 1995 and in July 1996. A numerical ground water model calibrated using hydrogeologic and geochemical data collected in 1995 was constructed to estimate the fate and transport of the dissolved BTEX compounds. Data collected during the second sampling round was used to assess the accuracy of model predictions and to confirm the effectiveness of natural attenuation processes. Data suggest that BTEX compounds are degrading through aerobic respiration and the anaerobic processes of ferric iron reduction, denitrification, sulfate reduction, and methanogenesis. A solute fate and transport model predicted that BTEX contaminant levels would increase over a 5-year period due to leaching of contaminants from soils into ground water.

  2. Measurement and modeling of energetic material mass transfer to soil pore water : Project CP-1227 : FY04 annual technical report.

    SciTech Connect

    Stein, Joshua S.; Webb, Stephen Walter

    2005-01-01

    Military test and training ranges operate with live fire engagements to provide realism important to the maintenance of key tactical skills. Ordnance detonations during these operations typically produce minute residues of parent explosive chemical compounds. Occasional low order detonations also disperse solid phase energetic material onto the surface soil. These detonation remnants are implicated in chemical contamination impacts to groundwater on a limited set of ranges where environmental characterization projects have occurred. Key questions arise regarding how these residues and the environmental conditions (e.g., weather and geostratigraphy) contribute to groundwater pollution impacts. This report documents interim results of a mass transfer model evaluating mass transfer processes from solid phase energetics to soil pore water based on experimental work obtained earlier in this project. This mass transfer numerical model has been incorporated into the porous media simulation code T2TNT. Next year, the energetic material mass transfer model will be developed further using additional experimental data.

  3. Kinetics modeling and interpretation of experimental results for XeF. Annual report, December 1985--November 1986

    SciTech Connect

    Salesky, E.T.

    1986-12-31

    In this report the author presents a detailed discussion of a computer model of the electron beam pumped XeF laser which was developed for Los Alamos National Laboratory during FY86. In its present form, it should provide useful modeling and scaling of XeF laser experiments currently of interest. Additional modifications will be required for long pulse (t{sub P}>5{mu}sec) simulations. The model includes all of the important energy transport processes which contribute to the formation and quenching of XeF in the B-state (upper laser level), X-state (lower laser level), C-state (which mixes with the B-state as a loss mechanism), and the unbound (repulsive) A-state to which the C-state decays. The gain of the B to X transition is resolved for the three most important laser (vibrational) lines: (0-3) at 353 nm, (0-2) and (1-4) at 351 nm. This report describes the kinetics model and computer code for electron beam pumped XeF lasers which use gas mixtures composed of argon (the buffer), xenon, and fluorine. The temperatures, energy flow, and chemistry (plasma and neutral) are calculated in a self-consistent manner; balances of energy, matter, and charge are tracked by the code and output with each print cycle. The model includes the time history of all of the important absorbers: Ar{sub 2}{sup +}, Xe{sub 2}{sup +}, Ar{sup *} and Xe{sup *} (s and p states), F{sub 2}, F{sup {minus}}, and Xe{sub 2}F{sup *}. Energy extraction in the form of lasing is computed using a modified Rigrod analysis which treats multiline lasing. This extraction model assumes a spatially uniform laser flux and is therefore a one dimensional (in time) treatment. The more general extraction model which treats non-uniform spatial effects (laser flux and pumping by a non-uniform electron beam) is being developed, and will be integrated with excimer model in the FY87 reporting period. The computer code was written in FORTRAN77 on a DEC MICROVAX II which uses the VAX/VMS operating system.

  4. A revised linear ozone photochemistry parameterization for use in transport and general circulation models: multi-annual simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cariolle, D.; Teyssèdre, H.

    2007-05-01

    This article describes the validation of a linear parameterization of the ozone photochemistry for use in upper tropospheric and stratospheric studies. The present work extends a previously developed scheme by improving the 2-D model used to derive the coefficients of the parameterization. The chemical reaction rates are updated from a compilation that includes recent laboratory work. Furthermore, the polar ozone destruction due to heterogeneous reactions at the surface of the polar stratospheric clouds is taken into account as a function of the stratospheric temperature and the total chlorine content. Two versions of the parameterization are tested. The first one only requires the solution of a continuity equation for the time evolution of the ozone mixing ratio, the second one uses one additional equation for a cold tracer. The parameterization has been introduced into the chemical transport model MOCAGE. The model is integrated with wind and temperature fields from the ECMWF operational analyses over the period 2000-2004. Overall, the results from the two versions show a very good agreement between the modelled ozone distribution and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite data and the "in-situ" vertical soundings. During the course of the integration the model does not show any drift and the biases are generally small, of the order of 10%. The model also reproduces fairly well the polar ozone variability, notably the formation of "ozone holes" in the Southern Hemisphere with amplitudes and a seasonal evolution that follow the dynamics and time evolution of the polar vortex. The introduction of the cold tracer further improves the model simulation by allowing additional ozone destruction inside air masses exported from the high to the mid-latitudes, and by maintaining low ozone content inside the polar vortex of the Southern Hemisphere over longer periods in spring time. It is concluded that for the study of climate scenarios or the assimilation of

  5. Alternative Model for the Assessment of Organizational Effectiveness for Higher Education Institutions in Developing Countries. ASHE 1988 Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Escala, Miguel J.; And Others

    The results of a study developing and testing a socially relevant model for assessing organizational effectiveness in developing countries are presented. Focus is on assessing the Dominican Republic. The objectives of the study were: to select and test theoretically sound effectiveness criteria which account for the type of organization and the…

  6. Scaled-bed modeling for fluidized-bed combustors. Semi-annual report, October 1, 1980-March 31, 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzgerald, T.J.; Crane, S.D.

    1981-03-01

    Progress is reported in developing scaled models of coal-fired fluidized-bed combustors which can be used with confidence to obtain performance data for predicting the performance of full scale units. Construction of two 1/4 scale atmospheric pressure fluidized bed combustors is nearing completion. (LCL)

  7. Idaho Model Watershed Project : Annual Report to the Bonneville Power Administration January 1, 1997 - December 31, 1997.

    SciTech Connect

    Bradbury, Allen; Slavin, Katie

    1998-10-28

    The Model Watershed Project was initiated in the fall of 1992 with a grant from Bonneville Power Administration. The objective of this project is to protect, enhance and restore anadromous and resident fish habitat and achieve and maintain a balance between resource protection and resource use on a holistic watershed basis.

  8. The Glut of Ph.D.s Complex Models for the Faculty Workforce. AIR 1998 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Milam, John

    This study examines some of the literature on college faculty supply and demand and asks whether it is possible to adopt assumptions from the previous research to construct a complex model of faculty workforce using the available data. The study involved a comprehensive review of the literature; numerous interviews conducted by telephone, e-mail,…

  9. Water balance model for mean annual hydrogen and oxygen isotope distributions in surface waters of the contiguous US

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The stable H and O isotope composition of river and stream water records information on runoff sources and land/atmosphere water fluxes within the catchment, and is a potentially powerful tool for network-based monitoring of large ecohydrological systems. Process-based hydrological models, however,...

  10. Public Higher Education and the State: Models for Financing, Budgeting, and Accountability. ASHE 1986 Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curry, Denis J.; Fischer, Norman M.

    The trend toward greater state regulation of public higher education is discussed, along with alternative structures or models for state financing of public institutions. The situation in Washington State is briefly described as an illustration. It is proposed that interests of the state, college, and student can be enhanced by allowing colleges…

  11. Annual report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1992-01-01

    The overall goal of the Tuskegee University Center for Food Production, Processing and Waste Management in Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) is to provide tested information and technologies applicable to bioregenerative food production systems for life support on long-term manned space mission. Specifically, the center is developing information, computer simulated models, methodologies and technology for sweetpotato and peanut biomass production and processing, inclusive of waste management and recycling of these crops selected by NASA for CELSS. The Center is organized into interdisciplinary teams of life scientists and engineers that work together on specific objectives and long-term goals. Integral to the goal of the Center is the development of both basic and applied research information and the training of young scientists and engineers, especially underrepresented minorities that will increase the professional pool in these disciplines and contribute to the advancement of space sciences and exploration.

  12. The P.K. Yonge Annual Invitational Track and Field Meet; A Model for Organizing and Conducting a High School Invitational. Resource Monograph No. 10.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Kirby

    This monograph deals with the practical problems of organizing and conducting a large track meet. Its purpose is to serve as a guide to coaches and athletic directors who have had little experience in such an operation. Cited is the P.K. Yonge Annual Invitational Track and Field Meet, an annual high school track meet for class AA schools in North…

  13. Tucannon Model Watershed 1997 Habitat Projects : Annual Progress Report Project Period: January 1, 1997 to March 31, 1998.

    SciTech Connect

    Bruegman, Terry; Nordheim, Debby

    1998-10-28

    The Tucannon Model Watershed 1997 habitat projects were designed to address critical limiting factors identified through the watershed assessment and Plan development. Construction elements were composed of bioengineering techniques designed to increase salmonid habitat complexity, insure stream bank and geomorphic stability, and reduce stream temperature and sediments in spawning gravels. Cooperation and agreement between landowners and resource agencies for restoring resource conditions has grown due to project success and is expected to continue for the benefit of all.

  14. Annual variation in carbon budget using remote-sensing data and a process model in Borneo Island, Southeast Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adachi, M.; Ito, A.; Takeuchi, W.; Yamagata, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD) is one of the most important carbon emission reduction efforts in the tropical region. Deforestation and land use changes are human activities with major impact on the regional carbon budged and the other greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) emissions. Forest carbon biomass in Southeast Asia is largest in Asia region; however, the area of primary forest had continuously decreased due to land-use conversion. The objective of the present study was to evaluate carbon budged and greenhouse gases induced by deforestation from Borneo Island. We used time-series satellite remote-sensing data to track deforestation history in Borneo Island, Southeast Asia, and estimated the resulting forest carbon budget using a process-based model (VISIT: Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases). The forest/non-forest area was mapped by applying the ALOS/PALSAR-calibrated threshold value to MODIS, SPOT-VEGETATION, and NOAA-AVHRR images. The model allowed us to estimate changes in carbon budged and greenhouse gases by human disturbances, including land-use conversion from primary forest to cropland (e.g., oil-palm plantation). The estimated carbon stocks, budged, and greenhouse gases were verified using field observation of previous studies at some point of Borneo Island. Our results suggested that the southern part of Borneo Island was a large carbon source due to deforestation, although the VISIT model need be revised to account for tropical peatland.

  15. Measurement and modeling of energetic material mass transfer to soil pore water :project CP-1227 FY03 annual technical report.

    SciTech Connect

    Phelan, James M.; Barnett, James L.; Kerr, Dayle R.

    2004-01-01

    Military test and training ranges operate with live fire engagements to provide realism important to the maintenance of key tactical skills. Ordnance detonations during these operations typically produce minute residues of parent explosive chemical compounds. Occasional low order detonations also disperse solid phase energetic material onto the surface soil. These detonation remnants are implicated in chemical contamination impacts to groundwater on a limited set of ranges where environmental characterization projects have occurred. Key questions arise regarding how these residues and the environmental conditions (e.g., weather and geostratigraphy) contribute to groundwater pollution impacts. This report documents interim results of experimental work evaluating mass transfer processes from solid phase energetics to soil pore water. The experimental work is used as a basis to formulate a mass transfer numerical model, which has been incorporated into the porous media simulation code T2TNT. This report documents the results of the Phase III experimental effort, which evaluated the impacts of surface deposits versus buried deposits, energetic material particle size, and low order detonation debris. Next year, the energetic material mass transfer model will be refined and a 2-d screening model will be developed for initial site-specific applications. A technology development roadmap was created to show how specific R&D efforts are linked to technology and products for key customers.

  16. Measurement and Modeling of Energetic Material Mass Transfer to Soil Pore Water - Project CP-1227 Annual Technical Report

    SciTech Connect

    PHELAN, JAMES M.; WEBB, STEPHEN W.; ROMERO, JOSEPH V.; BARNETT, JAMES L.; GRIFFIN, FAWN A.

    2003-01-01

    Military test and training ranges operate with live fire engagements to provide realism important to the maintenance of key tactical skills. Ordnance detonations during these operations typically produce minute residues of parent explosive chemical compounds. Occasional low order detonations also disperse solid phase energetic material onto the surface soil. These detonation remnants are implicated in chemical contamination impacts to groundwater on a limited set of ranges where environmental characterization projects have occurred. Key questions arise regarding how these residues and the environmental conditions (e.g. weather and geostratigraphy) contribute to groundwater pollution impacts. This report documents interim results of experimental work evaluating mass transfer processes from solid phase energetics to soil pore water. The experimental work is used as a basis to formulate a mass transfer numerical model, which has been incorporated into the porous media simulation code T2TNT. Experimental work to date with Composition B explosive has shown that column tests typically produce effluents near the temperature dependent solubility limits for RDX and TNT. The influence of water flow rate, temperature, porous media saturation and mass loading is documented. The mass transfer model formulation uses a mass transfer coefficient and surface area function and shows good agreement with the experimental data. Continued experimental work is necessary to evaluate solid phase particle size and 2-dimensional effects, and actual low order detonation debris. Simulation model improvements will continue leading to a capability to complete screening assessments of the impacts of military range operations on groundwater quality.

  17. Inter-annual variability of air pollutants over East Asia: an integrated analysis using satellite, lidar and numerical model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yumimoto, K.; Uno, I.; Kuribayashi, M.; Miyazaki, K.; Nishizawa, T.

    2014-12-01

    Air quality in East Asia has a drastic temporal and spatial variability. The rapid economic growth in the last three decades enhanced the increase of anthropogenic emission of air pollutions, and caused deterioration of the air quality in both source and downwind regions. The unprecedented heavy PM­2.5 pollution over the central China in January 2013 records the maximum PM2.5 concentration of 996 μg/m3 and raised critical environmental issues (e.g., mortality, human health, social activity and trans-boundary transport, etc.). Recently, efforts to reduce anthropogenic emissions (e.g., emission regulations and improvements of emission factors and removal efficiencies) decelerate their growth rates. In fact, Asian SO2 emission is estimated to be reducing from 2007 [Kurokawa et al., 2013]. However, growth rates other pollutant emissions (e.g., NOx and PM10) still remain in high. To understand the life cycle of pollutants (emission, transport, reaction and deposition) and their temporal and spatial variation, an integrated analysis using observation and numerical model (chemical transport model; CTM) is useful. In this study, we installed a comprehensive observation operator system, which converts model results into observed variables, into the GEOS-Chem CTM. A long-term (2005-2013) full-chemistry simulation over East Asia was performed, and simulation results are translated to tropospheric NO2 and SO2 columns and vertical profiles of aerosol extinction coefficient equivalent to satellite measurements and in-situ lidar network observations. Combining CTM and observations, and integrating analyses of aerosols over the downwind region and their precursors over the source region will provide important insights into temporal and spatial variation of air pollutants over East Asia.

  18. Greater deciduous shrub abundance extends the annual period of maximum tundra greenness and increases modeled net CO2 uptake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweet, S. K.; Griffin, K. L.; Steltzer, H.; Gough, L.; Boelman, N.

    2014-12-01

    Satellite studies of the terrestrial Arctic report increased summer greening and longer green seasons over the past several decades, which may increase productivity and lengthen the period of carbon uptake. These trends have been attributed largely to increasing air temperatures and reduced snow cover duration. However, deciduous shrubs are concurrently becoming increasingly abundant in tundra landscapes, which may also impact canopy phenology and productivity. Our aim in this research was to determine the influence of greater deciduous shrub abundance on tundra canopy phenology and subsequent impacts on net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) over the growing season in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range, Alaska (68º38' N, 149º34' W). We compared deciduous shrub-dominated and evergreen/graminoid-dominated community-level canopy phenology using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and piecewise linear regression modeling. We used a tundra plant-community specific leaf area index (LAI) model to estimate LAI throughout the season. We then used a tundra specific NEE model to estimate the impact of greater deciduous shrub abundance and associated shifts in leaf area and canopy phenology on tundra carbon flux. We found that deciduous shrub canopies reached the onset of maximum greenness significantly earlier than evergreen/graminoid canopies, but both communities reached the onset of senescence at similar times, resulting in a net extension of the peak green season in deciduous shrub communities compared to evergreen/graminoid communities. The combined effect of a longer peak green season and greater leaf area of deciduous shrub canopies increased the net carbon uptake in deciduous shrub communities compared to evergreen/graminoid communities. However, the longer peak season alone significantly increased carbon uptake in deciduous shrub communities, suggesting that greater deciduous shrub abundance increases carbon uptake not only due to greater leaf

  19. Synthesis and study of polymer models representative of coal structure. Phase 2. Annual report April 1983-April 1984

    SciTech Connect

    Squire, K.R.; Solomon, P.R.; DiTaranto, M.B.

    1984-05-02

    Seven new polymers were synthesized and an additional one was obtained from an outside source. There are now 10 ethylene bridged, 3 oxymethylene bridged, 1 ether linked, and 2 methylene bridged polymers available for study. A ring size series of benzene, naphthalene, and anthracene based polymers was completed. Polymers substituted with methyls, methoxyls, hydroxyls, and hydroaromatic rings were also made. The polymer characterization data were consistent with these functional groups and have provided insight into several pyrolysis mechanisms. Both oxymethylene and ethylene bridges seem to homolytically cleave during pyrolysis. Tar formation reactions in coals were coincident in temperature with ethylene bridge decompositions but were too high for oxymethylene bridges and too low for methylene bridges. Monomers with large aromatic rings and oxygenated ring substituents seem to destabilize ethylene bridges. This oxygen substituent effect may explain why low rank coals evolve tar at slightly lower temperatures than bituminous coals. Additional evidence has been obtained confirming that availability of donatable hydrogens plays a major role in controlling tar and char yields. Three distinct methane forming reactions were identified: homolytic decomposition of aromatic methoxyl groups, aromatic substitutions of methyl groups by tar molecules, and methane evolutions during char condensations. A Monte Carlo kinetic model was developed for the project's mechanistic studies. This model should greatly aid in efforts to relate the chemical structures of polymers and coals to their pyrolysis reactivities.

  20. Annual Fund. Estate Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stuhr, Robert L.; Jarc, Jerry A.

    The first of a series, this publication consists of two symposium presentations. The first paper, "Annual Fund: Cornerstone of Development," by Robert L. Stuhr, defines the annual fund concept in the context of institutional development and provides five requisites for a successful annual fund: it must (1) be part of an ongoing development…

  1. Processing and modeling issues for thin-film solar cell devices. Annual subcontract report, January 16, 1994--January 15, 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Birkmire, R.W.; Phillips, J.E.; Buchanan, W.A.; Hegedus, S.S.; McCandless, B.E.; Shafarman, W.N.

    1995-06-01

    This report describes results achieved during the second phase of a four year subcontract to develop and understand thin film solar cell technology related to a-Si and its alloys, CuIn{sub 1{minus}x}Ga{sub x}Se{sub 2}, and CdTe. Accomplishments during this phase include, development of equations and reaction rates for the formation of CuIn{sub 1{minus}x}Ga{sub x}Se{sub 2} films by selenization, fabrication of a 15% efficient CuIn{sub 1{minus}x}Ga{sub x}Se{sub 2} cell, development of a reproducible, reliable Cu-diffused contact to CdTe, investigation of the role of CdTe-CdS interdiffusion on device operation, investigation of the substitution of HCl for CdCl{sub 2} in the post-deposition heat treatment of CdTe/CdS, demonstration of an improved reactor design for deposition of a-Si films, demonstration of improved process control in the fabrication of a ten set series of runs producing {approximately}8% efficient a-Si devices, demonstration of the utility of a simplified optical model for determining quantity and effect of current generation in each layer of a triple stacked a-Si cell, presentation of analytical and modeling procedures adapted to devices produced with each material system, presentation of baseline parameters for devices produced with each material system, and various investigations of the roles played by other layers in thin film devices including the Mo underlayer, CdS and ZnO in CuIn{sub 1{minus}x}Ga{sub x}Se{sub 2} devices, the CdS in CdTe devices, and the ZnO as window layer and as part of the back surface reflector in a-Si devices. In addition, collaborations with over ten research groups are briefly described. 73 refs., 54 figs., 34 tabs.

  2. Evaluating the present annual water budget of a Himalayan headwater river basin using a high-resolution atmosphere-hydrology model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Lu; Gochis, David J.; Sobolowski, Stefan; Mesquita, Michel d. S.

    2016-04-01

    regional hydroclimatic forcings and responses are reasonably reproduced. Given the full annual cycle of pattern and amount in high altitude precipitation and the statistical correspondence in discharge, it is concluded that coupled modeling system shows potential for explicitly predicting the atmospheric-hydrology cycle of ungauged or poorly gauged basins.

  3. Jets, eddies & waves in Saturn's troposphere and stratosphere from multi-annual high-resolution Global Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiga, Aymeric; Guerlet, Sandrine; Meurdesoif, Yann; Indurain, Mikel; Millour, Ehouarn; Sylvestre, Melody; Dubos, Thomas; Fouchet, Thierry

    2016-10-01

    A mission as richly instrumented as Cassini has brought a new impulse to the studies of Saturn's atmospheric fluid dynamics, to be further extended to Jupiter by the Juno mission.We recently built an innovative Global Climate Model (GCM) for giant planets by coupling our complete seasonal radiative model [Guerlet Icarus 2014] with a new hydrodynamical solver using an original icosahedral mapping of the planetary sphere to ensure excellent conservation and scalability properties in massively parallel computing resources [Dubos GMD 2015].Here we describe the insights gained from GCM simulations for Saturn with both unprecedented horizontal resolutions (reference at 1/2° latitude/longitude, and tests at 1/4° and 1/8°), integrated time (up to ten simulated Saturn years), and large vertical extent (from the troposphere to the stratosphere).Starting from a windless initial state, our 10-year-long GCM simulation for Saturn reproduce alterned tropospheric mid-latitude jets bearing similarities with the observed jet system (numbering, intensity, width). We demonstrate that those jets are eddy-driven with a conversion rate from eddies to mean flow in agreement with Cassini estimates. Before reaching equilibrium, mid-latitude jets experience poleward migration, which can be ascribed to a self-destabilization of the jets by barotropic and baroclinic instabilities.Our Saturn GCM also predicts in the equator the presence of eastward-propagating Rossby-gravity (Yanai) and westward-propagating Rossby waves, reminiscent of similar waves in the terrestrial tropics. Furthermore, our GCM simulations exhibit a stratospheric meridional circulation from one tropic to the other, with a seasonal reversal, which allows us to investigate the possible dynamical control on the observed variations of hydrocarbon species.In contrast to observations, in our GCM simulations the equatorial jet is only weakly super-rotating and the polar jet is strongly destabilized by meandering. Moreover, in

  4. Annual variation in habitat-specific recruitment success: Implications from an individual-based model of Lake Michigan alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hook, T.O.; Rutherford, E.S.; Croley, T.E.; Mason, D.M.; Madenjian, C.P.

    2008-01-01

    The identification of important spawning and nursery habitats for fish stocks can aid fisheries management, but is complicated by various factors, including annual variation in recruitment success. The alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) is an ecologically important species in Lake Michigan that utilizes a variety of habitats for spawning and early life growth. While productive, warm tributary mouths (connected to Lake Michigan) may contribute disproportionately more recruits (relative to their habitat volume) to the adult alewife population than cooler, less productive nearshore habitats, the extent of interannual variation in the relative contributions of recruits from these two habitat types remains unknown. We used an individual-based bioenergetics simulation model and input data on daily temperatures to estimate alewife recruitment to the adult population by these different habitat types. Simulations suggest that nearshore lake habitats typically produce the vast majority of young alewife recruits. However, tributary habitats may contribute the majority of alewife recruits during years of low recruitment. We suggest that high interannual variation in the relative importance of habitats for recruitment is a common phenomenon, which should be considered when developing habitat management plans for fish populations. ?? 2008 NRC.

  5. Processing and modeling issues for thin-film solar cell devices: Annual subcontract report, January 16, 1995 -- January 15, 1996

    SciTech Connect

    Birkmire, R W; Phillips, J E; Buchanan, W A; Eser, E; Hegedus, S S; McCandless, B E; Meyers, P V; Shafarman, W N

    1996-08-01

    The overall mission of the Institute of Energy Conversion is the development of thin film photovoltaic cells, modules, and related manufacturing technology and the education of students and professionals in photovoltaic technology. The objectives of this four-year NREL subcontract are to advance the state of the art and the acceptance of thin film PV modules in the areas of improved technology for thin film deposition, device fabrication, and material and device characterization and modeling, relating to solar cells based on CuInSe{sub 2} and its alloys, on a-Si and its alloys, and on CdTe. In the area of CuInSe{sub 2} and its alloys, EEC researchers have produced CuIn{sub 1-x}GaxSe{sub 2} films by selenization of elemental and alloyed films with H{sub 2}Se and Se vapor and by a wide variety of process variations employing co-evaporation of the elements. Careful design, execution and analysis of these experiments has led to an improved understanding of the reaction chemistry involved, including estimations of the reaction rate constants. Investigation of device fabrication has also included studies of the processing of the Mo, US and ZnO deposition parameters and their influence on device properties. An indication of the success of these procedures was the fabrication of a 15% efficiency CuIn{sub 1-x}GaxSe{sub 2} solar cell.

  6. Modelling the impact of variations in ice sheet runoff on fjord and coastal biological productivity over annual to decadal timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sole, A. J.; Cowton, T. R.

    2015-12-01

    Each summer, vast quantities of surface-derived ice sheet meltwater runs off from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Much of this runoff is injected into glaciated fjords at depth beneath marine-terminating glaciers. Due to its low relative density, the runoff rises as a buoyant plume up the glaciers' calving fronts, entraining deep fjord water as it does so. This deep, ambient water tends to be relatively rich in nutrients and so the runoff plumes act to fertilise the surface layers of the fjord, leading to an observed late season spike in biological productivity in the fjord's surface layers. Although surface melting and runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet are predicted to increase significantly in the coming years and decades, the potential effect of this on fjord and coastal biological productivity is yet to be quantified. Here we present simulations of fjord circulation and biological productivity using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), and a new coupled representation of buoyant runoff plumes which enables decadal time period experiments of large three dimensional fjords. We investigate the effect on biological productivity of varying ice sheet runoff, ocean properties, near-surface winds and fjord geometry and bathymetry. We find that variations in ice sheet runoff are particularly important for biological productivity because the rate of discharge controls the depth at which the plumes reach neutral buoyancy and therefore whether the nutrient-rich deep water is delivered to the photic zone.

  7. Annual Research Briefs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

    1997-01-01

    This report contains the 1997 annual progress reports of the research fellows and students supported by the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR). Titles include: Invariant modeling in large-eddy simulation of turbulence; Validation of large-eddy simulation in a plain asymmetric diffuser; Progress in large-eddy simulation of trailing-edge turbulence and aeronautics; Resolution requirements in large-eddy simulations of shear flows; A general theory of discrete filtering for LES in complex geometry; On the use of discrete filters for large eddy simulation; Wall models in large eddy simulation of separated flow; Perspectives for ensemble average LES; Anisotropic grid-based formulas for subgrid-scale models; Some modeling requirements for wall models in large eddy simulation; Numerical simulation of 3D turbulent boundary layers using the V2F model; Accurate modeling of impinging jet heat transfer; Application of turbulence models to high-lift airfoils; Advances in structure-based turbulence modeling; Incorporating realistic chemistry into direct numerical simulations of turbulent non-premixed combustion; Effects of small-scale structure on turbulent mixing; Turbulent premixed combustion in the laminar flamelet and the thin reaction zone regime; Large eddy simulation of combustion instabilities in turbulent premixed burners; On the generation of vorticity at a free-surface; Active control of turbulent channel flow; A generalized framework for robust control in fluid mechanics; Combined immersed-boundary/B-spline methods for simulations of flow in complex geometries; and DNS of shock boundary-layer interaction - preliminary results for compression ramp flow.

  8. Model-based estimates of annual survival rate are preferable to observed maximum lifespan statistics for use in comparative life-history studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.

    1989-01-01

    Estimates of longevity are available for many animals, and are commonly used in comparative life-history analyses. We suggest that annual survival rate is more appropriate life history parameter for most comparative life history analyses. Observed maximum longevities were not correlated with the annual survival rate estimates and appear to be unstable over time. We recommend that observed maximum lifespans not be used in life history analyses.

  9. 1994 MCAP annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Harmony, S.C.; Boyack, B.E.

    1995-04-01

    VELCOR is an integrated, engineering-level computer code that models the progression of severe accidents in light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants. The entire spectrum of severe accident phenomena, including reactor coolant system and containment thermal-hydraulic response, core heatup, degradation and relocation, and fission product release and transport is treated in MELCOR in a unified framework for both boiling water reactors (BWRs) and pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Its current uses include the estimation of severe accident source terms and their sensitivities and uncertainties in a variety of applications. Independent assessment efforts have been successfully completed by the US and international MELCOR user communities. Most of these independent assessment efforts have been conducted to support the needs and fulfill the requirements of the individual user organizations. The resources required to perform an extensive set of model and integral code assessments are large. A prudent approach to fostering code development and maturation is to coordinate the individual assessment efforts of the MELCOR user community. While retaining individual control over assessment resources, each organization using the MELCOR code could work with the other users to broaden assessment coverage and minimize duplication. In recognition of these considerations, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) has initiated the MELCOR Cooperative Assessment Program (MCAP), a vehicle for coordinating and standardizing the assessment practices of the various MELCOR users. In addition, the user community will have a forum to better communicate lessons learned regarding MELCOR applications, capabilities, and user guidelines and limitations and to provide a user community perspective on code development needs and priorities. This second Annual Report builds on the foundation laid with the first Annual Report.

  10. Modeling of the coupled magnetospheric and neutral wind dynamos. Annual Technical status report No. 1, 1 April 1993-30 March 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Thayer, J.P.

    1994-03-01

    This report summarizes the progress made in the first year of NASA Grant No. NAGW-3508 entitled Modeling of the Coupled Magnetospheric and Neutral Wind Dynamos.' The approach taken has been to impose magnetospheric boundary conditions with either pure voltage or current characteristics and solve the neutral wind dynamo equation under these conditions. The imposed boundary conditions determine whether the neutral wind dynamo will contribute to the high-latitude current system or the electric potential. The semi-annual technical report, dated December 15, 1993, provides further detail describing the scientific and numerical approach of the project. The numerical development has progressed and the dynamo solution for the case when the magnetosphere acts as a voltage source has been evaluated completely using spectral techniques. The simulation provides the field-aligned current distribution at high latitudes due to the neutral wind dynamo. A number of geophysical conditions can be simulated to evaluate the importance of the neutral wind dynamo contribution to the field-aligned current system. On average, field-aligned currents generated by the neutral wind dynamo contributed as much as 30 percent to the large-scale field-aligned current system driven by the magnetosphere. A term analysis of the high-latitude neutral wind dynamo equation describing the field aligned current distribution has also been developed to illustrate the important contributing factors involved in the process. The case describing the neutral dynamo response for a magnetosphere acting as a pure current generator requires the existing spectral code to be extended to a pseudo-spectral method and is currently under development.

  11. Annual Research Briefs: 1995

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    This report contains the 1995 annual progress reports of the Research Fellows and students of the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR). In 1995 CTR continued its concentration on the development and application of large-eddy simulation to complex flows, development of novel modeling concepts for engineering computations in the Reynolds averaged framework, and turbulent combustion. In large-eddy simulation, a number of numerical and experimental issues have surfaced which are being addressed. The first group of reports in this volume are on large-eddy simulation. A key finding in this area was the revelation of possibly significant numerical errors that may overwhelm the effects of the subgrid-scale model. We also commissioned a new experiment to support the LES validation studies. The remaining articles in this report are concerned with Reynolds averaged modeling, studies of turbulence physics and flow generated sound, combustion, and simulation techniques. Fundamental studies of turbulent combustion using direct numerical simulations which started at CTR will continue to be emphasized. These studies and their counterparts carried out during the summer programs have had a noticeable impact on combustion research world wide.

  12. Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Predicting Annual Maximum and Annual Maximum Moving-Average Concentrations of Atrazine in Streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Crawford, Charles G.

    2008-01-01

    Regression models were developed for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average concentrations of atrazine in streams using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology developed by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The current effort builds on the original WARP models, which were based on the annual mean and selected percentiles of the annual frequency distribution of atrazine concentrations. Estimates of annual maximum and annual maximum moving-average concentrations for selected durations are needed to characterize the levels of atrazine and other pesticides for comparison to specific water-quality benchmarks for evaluation of potential concerns regarding human health or aquatic life. Separate regression models were derived for the annual maximum and annual maximum 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day moving-average concentrations. Development of the regression models used the same explanatory variables, transformations, model development data, model validation data, and regression methods as those used in the original development of WARP. The models accounted for 72 to 75 percent of the variability in the concentration statistics among the 112 sampling sites used for model development. Predicted concentration statistics from the four models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentration statistics for most of the model development and validation sites. Overall, performance of the models for the development and validation sites supports the application of the WARP models for predicting annual maximum and selected annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentration in streams and provides a framework to interpret the predictions in terms of uncertainty. For streams with inadequate direct measurements of atrazine concentrations, the WARP model predictions for the annual maximum and the annual maximum moving-average atrazine concentrations can be used to characterize

  13. Role of spatial variability of rainfall intensity: improve- ment of Eagleson's classical model to explain the rela- tionship between the coefficient of variation of annual maximum discharge and catchment size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuzuha, Yasuhisa; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Tomosugi, Kunio; Kishii, Tokuo; Komatsu, Yosuke

    2006-04-01

    Eagleson's classical regional flood frequency model is investigated. Our intention was not to improve the model, but to reveal previously unidentified important and dominant hydrological processes in it. The change of the coefficient of variation (CV) of annual maximum discharge with catchment area can be viewed as representing the spatial variance of floods in a homogeneous region. Several researchers have reported that the CV decreases as the catchment area increases, at least for large areas. On the other hand, Eagleson's classical studies have been known as pioneer efforts that combine the concept of similarity analysis (scaling) with the derived flood frequency approach. As we have shown, the classical model can reproduce the empirical relationship between the mean annual maximum discharge and catchment area, but it cannot reproduce the empirical decreasing CV-catchment area curve. Therefore, we postulate that previously unidentified hydrological processes would be revealed if the classical model were improved to reproduce the decreasing of CV with catchment area. First, we attempted to improve the classical model by introducing a channel network, but this was ineffective. However, the classical model was improved by introducing a two-parameter gamma distribution for rainfall intensity. What is important is not the gamma distribution itself, but those characteristics of spatial variability of rainfall intensity whose CV decreases with increasing catchment area. Introducing the variability of rainfall intensity into the hydrological simulations explains how the CV of rainfall intensity decreases with increasing catchment area. It is difficult to reflect the rainfall-runoff processes in the model while neglecting the characteristics of rainfall intensity from the viewpoint of annual flood discharge variances.

  14. Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results.

  15. Annual Energy Review, 2008

    SciTech Connect

    2009-06-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are statistics on total energy production, consumption, trade, and energy prices; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and international energy; financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversions.

  16. Estimation of annual indices from roadside surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Geissler, P.H.; Sauer, J.R.; Droege, S.

    1990-01-01

    Most of the surveys presently used to estimate population trends on a large geographic scale depend upon repeated visits to a number of randomly selected routes or monitoring points. As these surveys cannot be analyzed by modeling annual mean densities among routes within a region, no natural annual index of population density exists for the region. We discuss two possible methodologies for estimating annual indices of abundance. In the context of the route-regression methodology, in which trends are estimated for each route and regional population trends are estimated as weighted averages of route trends, it is possible to find average residual distances between the predicted trends on each route and the actual data points. Adding these average residuals to the regional predicted values provides a measure of average distance from the actual data points to the predicted trends. A linear model approach can also be used to estimate annual indices, in which a regional slope parameter can be fit to the data in combination with annual effects. Bootstrapping can be used to provide some measure of the variability of these annual effects. These methods provide similar results in an example using Breeding Bird Survey data for scissor-tailed flycatcher (Tyrannlls forficatus) trends in Arkansas and Oklahoma.

  17. 2010 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    2010-01-01

    This annual report includes: an overview of Western; approaches for future hydropower and transmission service; major achievements in FY 2010; FY 2010 customer Integrated Resource Planning, or IRP, survey; and financial data.

  18. Natural gas annual 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1995-11-17

    The Natural Gas Annual provides information on the supply and disposition of natural gas to a wide audience including industry, consumers, Federal and State agencies, and educational institutions. The 1994 data are presented in a sequence that follows natural gas (including supplemental supplies) from its production to its end use. This is followed by tables summarizing natural gas supply and disposition from 1990 to 1994 for each Census Division and each State. Annual historical data are shown at the national level.

  19. Natural gas annual 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1996-11-01

    The Natural Gas Annual provides information on the supply and disposition of natural gas to a wide audience including industry, consumers, Federal and State agencies, and educational institutions. The 1995 data are presented in a sequence that follows natural gas (including supplemental supplies) from its production to its end use. This is followed by tables summarizing natural gas supply and disposition from 1991 to 1995 for each Census Division and each State. Annual historical data are shown at the national level.

  20. 2005 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Chrzanowski, P; Walter, K

    2006-03-31

    As the cover of our ''2005 Annual Report'' highlights, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory joined the international science community in celebrating the World Year of Physics in 2005, with special events and science outreach and education programs. Einstein's remarkable discoveries in 1905 provided an opportunity to reflect on how physics has changed the world during the last century and on the promise of future beneficial discoveries. For half of the past century, Lawrence Livermore, which was established to meet an urgent national security need, has been contributing to the advancement of science and technology in a very special way. Co-founder Ernest O. Lawrence was the leading proponent in his generation of large-scale, multidisciplinary science and technology teams. That's Livermore's distinctive heritage and our continuing approach as a national laboratory managed and operated by the University of California for the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA). We focus on important problems that affect our nation's security and seek breakthrough advances in science and technology to achieve mission goals. An event in 2005 exemplifies our focus on science and technology advances in support of mission goals. In October, distinguished visitors came to Livermore to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (now called the Advanced Simulation and Computing Program, or ASC). ASC was launched in 1995 by DOE/NNSA to achieve a million-fold increase in computing power in a decade. The goal was motivated by the need to simulate the three-dimensional performance of a nuclear weapon in sufficient resolution and with the appropriately detailed physics models included. This mission-driven goal is a key part of fulfilling Livermore's foremost responsibility to ensure that the nuclear weapons in the nation's smaller 21st-century stockpile remain safe, reliable, and secure.

  1. LLNL NESHAPs 2002 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Harrach, R J; Gallegos, G M; Peterson, S-R; Tate, P J; Bertoldo, N A; Wilson, K R; Althouse, P E; Larson, J M

    2003-06-01

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs; Title 40 Code of Federal Regulations [CFR] Part 61, Subpart H). Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 {micro}Sv) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from operations in 2002 are summarized here: (1) Livermore site: 0.023 mrem (0.23 {micro}Sv) (43% from point-source emissions, 57% from diffuse-source emissions). The point-source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX; the resulting dose is used for compliance purposes; and (2) Site 300: 0.021 mrem (0.21 {micro}Sv) (85% from point-source emissions, 15% from diffuse-source emissions). The EDEs were calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air dispersion/dose-assessment model, except for doses for three diffuse sources, which were calculated from measured concentrations and dose coefficients. Site specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide usage inventory data or continuous stack monitoring data were the specific inputs to CAP88-PC for each modeled source.

  2. LLNL NESHAPs 2003 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Harrach, R J; Gallegos, G M; Peterson, S; Wilson, K R; Althouse, P E; Larson, J M; Bertoldo, N A; Tate, P J; Bowen, B

    2004-06-23

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs; Title 40 Code of Federal Regulations [CFR] Part 61, Subpart H). Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 {micro}Sv) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from operations in 2003 are summarized here. Livermore site: 0.044 mrem (0.44 {micro}Sv) (55% from point-source emissions, 45% from diffuse-source emissions). The point-source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX; the resulting dose is used for compliance purposes. Site 300: 0.017 mrem (0.17 {micro}Sv) (98% from point-source emissions, 2% from diffuse-source emissions). The EDEs were calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air dispersion/dose-assessment model, except for doses for two diffuse sources that were estimated using measured concentrations and dose coefficients. Site specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide usage inventory data or continuous stack monitoring data were the specific inputs to CAP88-PC for each modeled source.

  3. Supplement to the annual energy outlook 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1995-02-01

    This section of the Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 present the major assumptions of the modeling system used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (AEO95). In this context, assumptions include general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports listed in Appendix B. A synopsis of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented. The NEMS is developed and maintained by the office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projection of domestic energy-economy markets in the midterm time period and perform policy analyses requested by various government agencies and the private sector.

  4. Natural gas annual 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1998-10-01

    The Natural Gas Annual provides information on the supply and disposition of natural gas to a wide audience including industry, consumers, Federal and State agencies, and educational institutions. The 1997 data are presented in a sequence that follows natural gas (including supplemental supplies) from its production to its end use. This is followed by tables summarizing natural gas supply and disposition from 1993 to 1997 for each Census Division and each State. Annual historical data are shown at the national level. 27 figs., 109 tabs.

  5. International energy annual 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1998-02-01

    The International Energy Annual presents an overview of key international energy trends for production, consumption, imports, and exports of primary energy commodities in over 220 countries, dependencies, and areas of special sovereignty. Also included are population and gross domestic product data, as well as prices for crude oil and petroleum products in selected countries. Renewable energy reported in the International Energy Annual includes hydroelectric power, geothermal, solar, and wind electric power, biofuels energy for the US, and biofuels electric power for Brazil. New in the 1996 edition are estimates of carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of petroleum and coal, and the consumption and flaring of natural gas. 72 tabs.

  6. Annual Energy Outlook

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. For the first time, the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) is presented as a shorter edition under a newly adopted two-year release cycle. With this approach, full editions and shorter editions of the AEO will be produced in alternating years. This approach will allow EIA to focus more resources on rapidly changing energy markets both in the United States and internationally, and to consider how they might evolve over the next few years.

  7. LLNL NESHAPs 1996 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, G.M.

    1997-01-06

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) 40 CFR Part 61, Subpart H; Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (10 microsieverts) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from 1996 operations were (1) Livermore site: 0. 093 mrem (0.93 microsievert) (52% from point-source emissions, 48% from diffuse-source emissions); (2) Site 300: 0.033 mrem (0.33 microsievert) (99% from point-source, 1% from diffuse-source emissions). The EDEs were generally calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air-dispersion/dose-assessment model. Site-specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide inventory data or continuous-monitoring systems data were the specific input to CAP88-PC for each modeled source. 5 figs., 8 tabs.

  8. Annual Conference Abstracts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Engineering Education, 1976

    1976-01-01

    Presents the abstracts of 158 papers presented at the American Society for Engineering Education's annual conference at Knoxville, Tennessee, June 14-17, 1976. Included are engineering topics covering education, aerospace, agriculture, biomedicine, chemistry, computers, electricity, acoustics, environment, mechanics, and women. (SL)

  9. Carolinas Communication Annual, 1998.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McLennan, David B.

    1998-01-01

    This 1998 issue of "Carolinas Communication Annual" contains the following articles: "Give Me That Old Time Religion?: A Study of Religious Themes in the Rhetoric of the Ku Klux Klan" (John S. Seiter); "The Three Stooges versus the Third Reich" (Roy Schwartzman); "Interdisciplinary Team Teaching: Implementing Collaborative Instruction in an…

  10. UNICEF Annual Report, 1996.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    At this time, the United Nations Children Fund (UNICEF) is commemorating its 50th anniversary, under the slogan "children first." This annual UNICEF report reviews the organization's activities during 1995. An introduction by the executive director states that the report will give readers a sense of what UNICEF is doing with partners to rise to…

  11. NERSC Annual Report 2004

    SciTech Connect

    Hules, John; Bashor, Jon; Yarris, Lynn; McCullough, Julie; Preuss, Paul; Bethel, Wes

    2005-04-15

    The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) is the premier computational resource for scientific research funded by the DOE Office of Science. The Annual Report includes summaries of recent significant and representative computational science projects conducted on NERSC systems as well as information about NERSC's current and planned systems and services.

  12. 2010 AAUW Annual Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    American Association of University Women, 2010

    2010-01-01

    This report highlights some of the outstanding accomplishments of AAUW (American Association of University Women) for fiscal year 2010. This year's annual report also features stories of remarkable women who are leading the charge to break through barriers and ensure that all women have a fair chance. Sharon is working to reduce the pay gap…

  13. Magnetic Resonance Annual, 1985

    SciTech Connect

    Kressel, H.Y.

    1985-01-01

    The inaugural volume of Magnetic Resonance Annual includes reviews of MRI of the posterior fossa, cerebral neoplasms, and the cardiovascular and genitourinary systems. A chapter on contrast materials outlines the mechanisms of paramagnetic contrast enhancement and highlights several promising contrast agents.

  14. Annual Conference Abstracts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Journal of Engineering Education, 1972

    1972-01-01

    Includes abstracts of papers presented at the 80th Annual Conference of the American Society for Engineering Education. The broad areas include aerospace, affiliate and associate member council, agricultural engineering, biomedical engineering, continuing engineering studies, chemical engineering, civil engineering, computers, cooperative…

  15. UNICEF Annual Report, 1995.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, N.Y.

    This annual report for the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) details the programs and services provided by this organization in 1994. Following an overview of the year and a remembrance of former UNICEF Executive Director James P. Grant, the report describes developments in seven world regions and in specific emergency countries. The report…

  16. Annual Review 1995.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bernard Van Leer Foundation, The Hague (Netherlands).

    This document provides an annual report and financial review for 1995 of the Bernard van Leer Foundation, a private institution created in 1949 for broad humanitarian purposes. The report includes feature articles highlighting specific aspects of the year's activities: (1) "Growing Up in France: Parental Creches"; (2) "Changing the Nature of…

  17. Annual Review 1994.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bernard Van Leer Foundation, The Hague (Netherlands).

    The report provides an annual report and financial review for 1994 of the Bernard van Leer Foundation, a private institution that was created for broad humanitarian purposes in 1949, and shows the varied aspects of the foundation's activities in the project field. In addition, it includes a number of feature articles which highlight specific…

  18. TACSCE Research Annual 1991.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lesko, Silvia Jo

    1991-01-01

    This annual contains the paper that won the 1991 President's Award of the Texas Association for Community Service and Continuing Education (TACSCE) as well as the runner-up paper and other articles. An editorial, "Learning to Crawl" (Silvia Lesko), focuses on the editor's "discovery" of the adult learner. "Ethics and Continuing Education" (Janet…

  19. NRCC annual report, 1979

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-11-01

    This annual report of the National Research for Computation in Chemistry (NRCC) Division describes the program of research workshops, software development, and scientific research of the Division in 1979. This year marked the first full calendar year of activity of the Division. Initial staffing in the core scientific areas was completed by the addition of a crystallographer.

  20. NERSC Annual Report 2002

    SciTech Connect

    Hules, John

    2003-01-31

    The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) is the primary computational resource for scientific research funded by the DOE Office of Science. The Annual Report for FY2002 includes a summary of recent computational science conducted on NERSC systems (with abstracts of significant and representative projects), and information about NERSC's current and planned systems and service

  1. International Energy Annual, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-01-14

    This report is prepared annually and presents the latest information and trends on world energy production and consumption for petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity. Trade and reserves are shown for petroleum, natural gas, and coal. Prices are included for selected petroleum products. Production and consumption data are reported in standard units as well as British thermal units (Btu) and joules.

  2. NERSC Annual Report 2005

    SciTech Connect

    Hules , John

    2006-07-31

    The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) is the premier computational resource for scientific research funded by the DOE Office of Science. The Annual Report includes summaries of recent significant and representative computational science projects conducted on NERSC systems as well as information about NERSC's current and planned systems and services.

  3. Annual Research Briefs - 1996

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1996-01-01

    This report contains the 1996 annual progress reports of the research fellows and students supported by the Center for Turbulence Research. Last year, CTR hosted twelve resident Postdoctoral Fellows, three Research Associates, four Senior Research Fellows, and supported one doctoral student and ten short term visitors.

  4. UNICEF Annual Report. 1984.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This annual report reviews the work UNICEF has been doing to help transform the "Child Survival Revolution" from a dream into a reality. Discussion focuses primarily on child health and nutrition and other basic services for children. Throughout, the review is supplemented with profiles of program initiatives made to improve the conditions of the…

  5. Carolinas Communication Annual, 1999.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McLennan, David B.

    1999-01-01

    This 1999 issue of the "Carolinas Communication Annual" contains the following articles: "The Unmade Analogy: Alcohol and Abortion" (Richard W. Leeman); "Say, You Want a Revolution" (Roy Schwartzman and Constance Y. Green); "Exploring the Relationship between Perceived Narrativity and Persuasiveness" (Richard Olsen and Rodney A. Reynolds); "In…

  6. Annual Coal Distribution

    EIA Publications

    2016-01-01

    The Annual Coal Distribution Report (ACDR) provides detailed information on domestic coal distribution by origin state, destination state, consumer category, and method of transportation. Also provided is a summary of foreign coal distribution by coal-producing state. All data for the report year are final and this report supersedes all data in the quarterly distribution reports.

  7. UNICEF Annual Report 1983.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    In introducing this annual report, the executive director of UNICEF delineates the four techniques for primary health care and basic services reported in the publication "State of the World's Children, 1982-1983." The ensuing review of UNICEF's activities illustrates highlights of the year's program cooperation, including trends and key events, by…

  8. ASE Annual Conference 2010

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCune, Roger

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the author describes the ASE Annual Conference 2010 which was held at Nottingham after a gap of 22 years. As always, the main conference was preceded by International Day, an important event for science educators from across the world. There were two strands to the programme: (1) "What works for me?"--sharing new ideas and tried…

  9. UNICEF Annual Report, 1994.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This annual report for the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) describes the programs and services provided by this organization in 1993. Following an introduction by UNICEF's executive director, the report reviews regional developments in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Latin…

  10. Uranium industry annual 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1999-04-22

    The Uranium Industry Annual 1998 (UIA 1998) provides current statistical data on the US uranium industry`s activities relating to uranium raw materials and uranium marketing. It contains data for the period 1989 through 2008 as collected on the Form EIA-858, ``Uranium Industry Annual Survey.`` Data provides a comprehensive statistical characterization of the industry`s activities for the survey year and also include some information about industry`s plans and commitments for the near-term future. Data on uranium raw materials activities for 1989 through 1998, including exploration activities and expenditures, EIA-estimated reserves, mine production of uranium, production of uranium concentrate, and industry employment, are presented in Chapter 1. Data on uranium marketing activities for 1994 through 2008, including purchases of uranium and enrichment services, enrichment feed deliveries, uranium fuel assemblies, filled and unfilled market requirements, and uranium inventories, are shown in Chapter 2. The methodology used in the 1998 survey, including data edit and analysis, is described in Appendix A. The methodologies for estimation of resources and reserves are described in Appendix B. A list of respondents to the ``Uranium Industry Annual Survey`` is provided in Appendix C. The Form EIA-858 ``Uranium Industry Annual Survey`` is shown in Appendix D. For the readers convenience, metric versions of selected tables from Chapters 1 and 2 are presented in Appendix E along with the standard conversion factors used. A glossary of technical terms is at the end of the report. 24 figs., 56 tabs.

  11. Annual Income Tax Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Exceptional Parent, 1988

    1988-01-01

    The annual income tax guide is designed to familiarize parents with the tax laws that specifically affect persons with disabilities and their families. Summarized are the changes for 1988 as well as guidelines for itemized deductions, tax credits, and the deduction for dependents. (DB)

  12. Marketing the Annual Fund.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cover, Nelson, Jr.

    1980-01-01

    Colleges and universities must develop complete and coherent marketing strategies that aim at communicating a solid, identifiable, and structured image and purpose to alumni and friends, and to their regional and national communities. Some examples of how a particular institution should structure its annual fund are provided. (MLW)

  13. UNICEF Annual Report, 1993.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Children's Fund, New York, NY.

    This annual report for the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) details the programs and services provided by this organization in 1992-93. Following an introduction by UNICEF's executive director, the report briefly reviews UNICEF activities for 1992, then describes specific projects in the following areas: (1) child survival and development;…

  14. Annual HR Salary Survey.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schaeffer, Patricia

    2000-01-01

    A trainers' salary survey collected data on 1,091 companies, 31,615 employees, and 97 human resource jobs. Results show pay for human resource professionals is continuing to rise. The survey contains information on base salaries, annual bonuses and incentives, and long-term eligibility incentives. (JOW)

  15. Ultrasound Annual, 1984

    SciTech Connect

    Sanders, R.C.; Hill, M.C.

    1984-01-01

    The 1984 edition of Ultrasound Annual explores new applications of ultrasound in speech and swallowing and offers guidelines on the use of ultrasound and nuclear medicine in thyroid and biliary tract disease. Other areas covered include Doppler sonography of the abdomen, intraoperative abdominal ultrasound, sonography of the placenta, ultrasound of the neonatal head and abdomen, and sonographic echo patterns created by fat.

  16. NABE Annual Conference Journal 1988-1989.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malave, Lilliam M., Ed.

    This document contains papers from two NABE annual conferences: (17th, Houston, Texas, April 27-May 1, 1988) and (18th, Miami, Florida, May 9-13, 1989). Papers cover three categories: (1) bilingual education and bilingualism: realities in the twentieth century; (2) current ideologies and models in bilingual education; and (3) effective…

  17. Alaska Head Start Annual Program Report, 1999.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alaska State Dept. of Education and Early Devolopment, Juneau. Head Start State Collaboration Office.

    This annual report details the accomplishments of the Alaska Head Start Program for fiscal year 1999. The report begins with a description of the Head Start program and its core values, and delineates the administrative and program partners of Head Start, its service population, eligibility requirements, funding sources, service models, and…

  18. LLNL NESHAPs 1998 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Berger, R L; Bertoldo, N A; Biermann, A H; Gallegos, G; Hall, L C; Harrach, R J; Surano, K A

    1999-06-14

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) 40 CFR Part 61, Subpart H; Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 {micro}Sv) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from 1998 operations are summarized here. (1) Livermore site: 0.055 mrem (0.55 {micro}Sv) (57% from point-source emissions, 43% from diffuse-source emissions). The point-source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX and is used for compliance purposes. LLNL believes a more realistic dose for the Livermore site is 0.049 mrem (0.49 {micro}Sv) (52% from point-source emissions, 48% from diffuse-source emissions). This dose is based on an assessment that represents a more realistic behavior of tritium gas in the environment. (2) Site 300: 0.024 mrem (0.24 {micro}Sv) (78% from point-source emissions, 22% from diffuse-source emissions). The EDEs were generally calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air-dispersion/dose-assessment model. Site-specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide inventory data or continuous-monitoring systems data were the specific input to CAP88-PC for each modeled source.

  19. Annual Energy Review 2007

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2008-06-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are data on total energy production, consumption, and trade; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, international energy, as well as financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversion tables. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....”

  20. International energy annual 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1999-04-01

    The International Energy Annual presents an overview of key international energy trends for production, consumption, imports, and exports of primary energy commodities in over 220 countries, dependencies, and areas of special sovereignty. Also included are population and gross domestic product data, as well as prices for crude oil and petroleum products in selected countries. Renewable energy reported in the International Energy Annual includes hydroelectric power and geothermal, solar, and wind electric power. Also included are biomass electric power for Brazil and the US, and biomass, geothermal, and solar energy produced in the US and not used for electricity generation. This report is published to keep the public and other interested parties fully informed of primary energy supplies on a global basis. The data presented have been largely derived from published sources. The data have been converted to units of measurement and thermal values (Appendices E and F) familiar to the American public. 93 tabs.

  1. Renewable energy annual 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-01

    The Renewable Energy Annual 1995 is the first in an expected series of annual reports the Energy Information Administration (EIA) intends to publish to provide a comprehensive assessment of renewable energy. This report presents the following information on the history, status, and prospects of renewable energy data: estimates of renewable resources; characterizations of renewable energy technologies; descriptions of industry infrastructures for individual technologies; evaluations of current market status; and assessments of near-term prospects for market growth. An international section is included, as well as two feature articles that discuss issues of importance for renewable energy as a whole. The report also contains a number of technical appendices and a glossary. The renewable energy sources included are biomass (wood), municipal solid waste, biomass-derived liquid fuels, geothermal, wind, and solar and photovoltaic.

  2. Coal industry annual 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1998-12-01

    Coal Industry Annual 1997 provides comprehensive information about US coal production, number of mines, prices, productivity, employment, productive capacity, and recoverable reserves. US Coal production for 1997 and previous years is based on the annual survey EIA-7A, Coal Production Report. This report presents data on coal consumption, coal distribution, coal stocks, coal prices, and coal quality for Congress, Federal and State agencies, the coal industry, and the general public. Appendix A contains a compilation of coal statistics for the major coal-producing States. This report includes a national total coal consumption for nonutility power producers that are not in the manufacturing, agriculture, mining, construction, or commercial sectors. 14 figs., 145 tabs.

  3. Petroleum marketing annual 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1995-08-24

    The Petroleum Marketing Annual (PMA) provides information and statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication presents statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysis, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the fob and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners` acquisition cost of crude oil. Refined petroleum product sales data include motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane. The Petroleum Marketing Division, Office of Oil and Gas, Energy Information Administration ensures the accuracy, quality, and confidentiality of the published data in the Petroleum Marketing Annual. For this production, all estimates have been recalculated since their earlier publication in the Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM). These calculations made use of additional data and corrections that were received after the PMM publication date.

  4. NERSC 2001 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Hules, John

    2001-12-12

    The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) is the primary computational resource for scientific research funded by the DOE Office of Science. The Annual Report for FY2001 includes a summary of recent computational science conducted on NERSC systems (with abstracts of significant and representative projects); information about NERSC's current systems and services; descriptions of Berkeley Lab's current research and development projects in applied mathematics, computer science, and computational science; and a brief summary of NERSC's Strategic Plan for 2002-2005.

  5. NERSC 1998 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Hules, John

    1999-03-01

    This 1998 annual report from the National Scientific Energy Research Computing Center (NERSC) presents the year in review of the following categories: Computational Science; Computer Science and Applied Mathematics; and Systems and Services. Also presented are science highlights in the following categories: Basic Energy Sciences; Biological and Environmental Research; Fusion Energy Sciences; High Energy and Nuclear Physics; and Advanced Scientific Computing Research and Other Projects.

  6. NSLS annual report 1984

    SciTech Connect

    Klaffky, R.; Thomlinson, W.

    1984-01-01

    The first comprehensive Annual Report of the National Synchrotron Light Source comes at a time of great activity and forward motion for the facility. In the following pages we outline the management changes that have taken place in the past year, the progress that has been made in the commissioning of the x-ray ring and in the enhanced utilization of the uv ring, together with an extensive discussion of the interesting scientific experiments that have been carried out.

  7. 2008 annual merit review

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    The 2008 DOE Vehicle Technologies Program Annual Merit Review was held February 25-28, 2008 in Bethesda, Maryland. The review encompassed all of the work done by the Vehicle Technologies Program: a total of 280 individual activities were reviewed, by a total of just over 100 reviewers. A total of 1,908 individual review responses were received for the technical reviews, and an additional 29 individual review responses were received for the plenary session review.

  8. Annual Energy Outlook

    EIA Publications

    2016-01-01

    Projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) focus on the factors expected to shape U.S. energy markets through 2040. The projections provide a basis for examination and discussion of energy market trends and serve as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in U.S. energy policies, rules, and regulations, as well as the potential role of advanced technologies.

  9. Nuclear Medicine Annual, 1986

    SciTech Connect

    Freeman, L.M.; Weissmann, H.S.

    1986-01-01

    Nuclear Medicine Annual, l986 features state-of-the-art reports on the technical aspects and clinical applications of single-photon emission computed tomography, as well as on monoclonal antibodies for radioimmunoimaging and on receptorbinding radiopharmaceuticals. Also included is a review of magnetic resonance imaging of congenital cardiac abnormalities. Other contributions cover bone mineral measurements; skeletal scintigraphy of the hands and wrists; and radionuclide blood-pool imaging in the diagnosis of deep-vein thrombosis of the leg.

  10. The Dynamic of Annual Carbon Allocation to Wood in European Forests Is Consistent with a Combined Source-Sink Limitation of Growth: Implications on Growth Simulations in a Terrestrial Biosphere Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillemot, J.; Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Dufrêne, E.; François, C.; Soudani, K.; Ourcival, J. M.; Leadley, P.; Delpierre, N.

    2014-12-01

    The extent to which forest growth is limited by carbon (C) supply (source control) or by cambial activity (sink control) will strongly determines the responses of trees to global changes. However, the physiological processes responsible for the limitation of forest growth are still under debate. The aim of this study was i) to evaluate the key drivers of the annual carbon allocation to wood along large soil and climate regional gradients in four tree species representative of the main European forest biomes (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea, Quercus ilex and Picea abies) ii) to implement the identified key drivers in a new C allocation scheme within the CASTANEA terrestrial biosphere model (TBM). Combining field measurements and process-based simulations at 49 sites (931 site-years), our analyses revealed that the inter-site variability in C allocation to wood was predominantly driven by an age-related decline. The direct control of temperature or water stress on sink activity (i.e. independently from their effects on C supply) exerted a strong influence on the annual woody growth in all the species considered, including deciduous temperate species. The lagged effect of the past environment conditions was a significant driver of the annual C allocation to wood. Carbon supply appeared to strongly limit growth only in deciduous temperate species. Our study supports the premise that European forest growth is under a complex panel of source- and sink- limitations, contradicting the simple source control implemented in most TBMs. The implementation of these combined forest growth limitations in the CASTANEA model significantly improved its performance when evaluated against independent stand growth data at the regional scale (mainland France, >103 plots). We finally discuss how the sink imitation affects the CASTANEA simulated projections of forest productivity along the 21th century, especially with respect to the expected fertilizing effect of increasing atmospheric

  11. [Generic ecosystem model for assessing the effects of elevated carbon dioxide on ecosystems]. [Annual] report, July 1, 1988--June 30, 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Reynolds, J.F.

    1989-12-31

    Development of simulation models of the effects of elevated CO{sub 2} on plant physiological processes requires close cooperation between modelers and experimentalists. In particular, the detailed process-based, leaf-level photosynthesis model currently in development at San Diego State University requires parameterization data for different plant species, levels within the canopy, and growth conditions. Validation of model predictions will require additional data. The purpose of this supplemental is to initiate ways in which different groups involved in elevated CO{sub 2} research can interact to advance the goals of both the individual research scientists and the CO{sub 2} Research Program.

  12. Students' Academic Orientations and Their Perceptions of and Preferences for Colleges: Applied Market Research Using the Ideal Point Preference Model and Multidimensional Scaling. ASHE 1987 Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuntz, Steven S.

    A model that accounts for high school students' college selection was tested. The ideal point preference model proposes that students prefer the college that most approximates their conception of the ideal college. Also assessed was the extent to which students' academic orientations (vocational, academic, collegiate, or nonconformist) affect…

  13. Wage Equity and Female Faculty Job-Satisfaction: The Role of Wage Differentials in a Job Satisfaction Causal Model. ASHE Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagedorn, Linda Serra

    This study examined the role of female/male wage differentials in a model of job satisfaction. It is based on data from 5,021 respondents to the 1989 Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching national faculty survey. The model considers the interrelated effects of the calculated wage differential, stress, social perceptions of students,…

  14. Engineering Annual Summary 1998

    SciTech Connect

    Dimolitsas, S

    1999-05-01

    Unlike most research and development laboratories, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is responsible for delivering production-ready designs. Unlike most industry, LLNL is responsible for R and D that must significantly increase the nation's security. This rare combination of production engineering expertise and national R and D agenda identifies LLNL as one of the few organizations today that conducts cutting-edge engineering on grand-scale problems, while facing enormous technical risk and undergoing diligent scrutiny of its budget, schedule, and performance. On the grand scale, cutting-edge technologies are emerging from our recent ventures into ''Xtreme Engineering{trademark}.'' Basically, we must integrate and extend technologies concurrently and then push them to their extreme, such as building very large structures but aligning them with extreme precision. As we extend these technologies, we push the boundaries of engineering capabilities at both poles: microscale and ultrascale. Today, in the ultrascale realm, we are building NIF, the world's largest laser, which demands one of the world's most complex operating systems with 9000 motors integrated through over 500 computers to control 60,000 points for every laser shot. On the other pole, we have fabricated the world's smallest surgical tools and the smallest instruments for detecting biological and chemical agents used by antiterrorists. Later in this Annual Summary, we highlight some of our recent innovations in the area of Xtreme Engineering, including large-scale computer simulations of massive structures such as major bridges to prepare retrofitting designs to withstand earthquakes. Another feature is our conceptual breakthrough in developing the world's fastest airplane, HyperSoar, which can reach anywhere in the planet in two hours at speeds of 6700 mph. In the last few years, Engineering has significantly pushed the technology in structural mechanics and micro-instrumentation. For example

  15. Evaluating the performance of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) for a western US coniferous forest under annual drought stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duarte, H.; Lin, J. C.; Ehleringer, J. R.

    2014-12-01

    The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land model of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM), encompassing land biogeophysics, biogeochemistry, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics components. Several modifications were implemented in its most recent release (CLM4.5), including a revised photosynthesis scheme and improved hydrology, among an extensive list of updates. Since version 4.0, CLM also includes parameterizations related to photosynthetic carbon isotope discrimination. In this study we evaluate the performance of CLM4.5 at the Wind River Field Station AmeriFlux site (US-Wrc), with particular attention to its parameterization of ecosystem drought response. US-Wrc is located near the WA/OR border in a coniferous forest (Douglas-fir/western hemlock), in a region characterized by strongly seasonal climate and summer drought. Long-term meteorological/biological data are available through the AmeriFlux repository (almost a decade of L4 (gap-filled) data available, starting in 1998). Another factor that makes the site so unique is the availability of a decade-long record of carbon isotope ratios (δ13C). Here we run CLM in offline mode, forced by the observed meteorological data, and then compare modeled surface fluxes (CO2, sensible heat, and latent heat) against observed eddy-covariance fluxes. We also use the observed δ13C values to assess the parameterizations of carbon isotope discrimination in the model. We will present the result of the analysis and discuss possible improvements in the model.

  16. The Martian annual atmospheric pressure cycle - Years without great dust storms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tillman, James E.; Johnson, Neal C.; Guttorp, Peter; Percival, Donald B.

    1993-01-01

    A model of the annual cycle of pressure on Mars for a 2-yr period, chosen to include one year at the Viking Lander 2 and to minimize the effect of great dust storms at the 22-deg N Lander 1 site, was developed by weighted least squares fitting of the Viking Lander pressure measurements to an annual mean, and fundamental and the first four harmonics of the annual cycle. Close agreement was obtained between the two years, suggesting that an accurate representation of the annual CO2 condensation-sublimation cycle can be established for such years. This model is proposed as the 'nominal' Martian annual pressure cycle, and applications are suggested.

  17. Annual Energy Review 2001

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2002-11-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is a statistical history of energy activities in the United States. It documents trends and milestones in U.S. energy production, trade, storage, pricing, and consumption. Each new year of data that is added to the time series—which now reach into 7 decades—extends the story of how Americans have acquired and used energy. It is a story of continual change as the Nation's economy grew, energy requirements expanded, resource availability shifted, and interdependencies developed among nations.

  18. Ultrasound Annual, 1983

    SciTech Connect

    Sanders, R.C.; Hill, M.C.

    1983-01-01

    The 1983 edition of Ultrasound Annual features a state-of-the-art assessment of real-time ultrasound technology and a look at improvements in real-time equipment. Chapters discuss important new obstetric applications of ultrasound in measuring fetal umbilical vein blood flow and monitoring ovarian follicular development in vivo and in vitro fertilization. Other topics covered include transrectal prostate ultrasound using a linear array system; ultrasound of the common bile duct; ultrasound in tropical diseases; prenatal diagnosis of craniospinal anomalies; scrotal ultrasonography; opthalmic ultrasonography; and sonography of the upper abdominal venous system.

  19. International energy annual 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-01

    The International Energy Annual presents information and trends on world energy production and consumption for petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity. Production and consumption data are reported in standard units as well as British thermal units (Btu). Trade and reserves are shown for petroleum, natural gas, and coal. Data are provided on crude oil refining capacity and electricity installed capacity by type. Prices are included for selected crude oils and for refined petroleum products in selected countries. Population and Gross Domestic Product data are also provided.

  20. Renewable energy annual 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1997-03-01

    This report presents summary data on renewable energy consumption, the status of each of the primary renewable technologies, a profile of each of the associated industries, an analysis of topical issues related to renewable energy, and information on renewable energy projects worldwide. It is the second in a series of annual reports on renewable energy. The renewable energy resources included in the report are biomass (wood and ethanol); municipal solid waste, including waste-to-energy and landfill gas; geothermal; wind; and solar energy, including solar thermal and photovoltaic. The report also includes various appendices and a glossary.

  1. Annual Energy Review 2010

    SciTech Connect

    2011-10-01

    This twenty-ninth edition of the Annual Energy Review (AER) presents the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most comprehensive look at integrated energy statistics. The summary statistics on the Nation’s energy production, consumption, trade, stocks, and prices cover all major energy commodities and all energy-consuming sectors of the U.S. economy from 1949 through 2010. The AER is EIA’s historical record of energy statistics and, because the coverage spans six decades, the statistics in this report are well-suited to long-term trend analysis.

  2. Nuclear Medicine Annual, 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Freeman, L.M.; Weissmann, H.S.

    1989-01-01

    Among the highlights of Nuclear Medicine Annual, 1989 are a status report on the thyroid scan in clinical practice, a review of functional and structural brain imaging in dementia, an update on radionuclide renal imaging in children, and an article outlining a quality assurance program for SPECT instrumentation. Also included are discussions on current concepts in osseous sports and stress injury scintigraphy and on correlative magnetic resonance and radionuclide imaging of bone. Other contributors assess the role of nuclear medicine in clinical decision making and examine medicolegal and regulatory aspects of nuclear medicine.

  3. NPL 1999 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    2000-01-01

    OAK-B135 NPL 1999 Annual Report. The Nuclear Physics Laboratory at the University of Washington in Seattle pursues a broad program of nuclear physics research. Research activities are conducted locally and at remote sites. The current program includes ''in-house'' research on nuclear collisions using the local tandem Van de Graaff and superconducting linac accelerators as well as local and remote non-accelerator research on fundamental symmetries and weak interactions and user-mode research on relativistic heavy ions at large accelerator facilities around the world.

  4. The importance of the South Atlantic high pressure system for the Tropical Atlantic annual cycle: experiments with a regionally coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry; Jacob, Daniela; Wang, Qiang; Jung, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Conditions in the Tropical Atlantic (TA) are important for the climate in many regions. Because of this, it is important to simulate accurately the seasonal and interannual variability in this region. Currently, most of the coupled models suffer from serious biases in the TA. Identifying the causes of these biases is an important issue. Using a high-resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere regional model MPIOM- REMO (ROM) we explore the importance of the South Atlantic high pressure (SAH) for the simulated TA variability. In ROM a global ocean model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology. The coupling is active in the region covered by REMO, whereas in the rest of the ocean its circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Here we analyze two set of simulations that differ by the coupled area. In one of the setups, the atmospheric model domain includes the SAH, whereas in the second, the SAH is outside the region of active coupling. The first setup shows a much reduced warm bias in sea surface temperature (SST) in the warm pool and in the Angola-Bengela front. We analyze the contribution of the ocean and the atmosphere to these differences

  5. High-intensity drying processes: Impulse drying modeling of fluid flow and heat transfer in a crown compensated impulse drying press roll, The lubrication problem. Annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Orloff, D.I.; Hojjatie, B.; Bloom, F.

    1994-08-01

    Although evaporative drying is currently used to dry paper, research has showed that significant energy savings could be realized with the newer impulse drying technology in drying heavy weight grades of paper. This report analyzes the lubrication problem which arises in modeling impulse drying employing a crown compensated roll. The geometry for the associated steady flow problem is constructed and expressions are derived for the relevant velocity fields, mass flow rates, and normal and tangential forces acting on both the bottom surface of an internal hydrostatic shoe and the inside surface of the crown-compensated roll. Results from the analytical model agreed well with experimental data from Beloit Corp. for the small shoe/roll configuration. The model can be used to predict effect of design and physical parameters on the performance of the press roll (lubricant thickness, pressure distributions, mechanical power required to operate the roll, etc.) and to determine optimal performance under various operating conditions.

  6. LLNL NESHAPs 2001 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Harrach, R.J.; Peterson, S.-R.; Gallegos, G.M.; Tate, P.J.; Bertoldo, N.A.; Althouse, P.E.

    2002-06-18

    NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 {micro}Sv) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from operations in 2001 are summarized here: (1) Livermore site: 0.017 mrem (0.17 {micro}Sv) (34% from point-source emissions, 66% from diffuse-source emissions), The point-source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX; the resulting dose is used for compliance purposes; and (2) Site 300: 0.054 mrem (0.54 {micro}Sv) (93% from point-source emissions, 7% from diffuse-source emissions); The EDEs were calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air dispersion/dose assessment model, except for doses for three diffuse sources, which were calculated from measured concentrations and dose coefficients. Site specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide usage inventory data or continuous stack monitoring data were the specific inputs to CAP88-PC for each modeled source.

  7. LLNL NESHAPs 2000 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, G M; Harrach, R J; Berger, R L; Bertoldo, N A; Tate, P J; Peterson, S R

    2001-06-01

    NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 {micro}Sv) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from 2000 operations are summarized here. {sm_bullet} Livermore site: 0.038 mrem (0.38 {micro}Sv) (45% from point-source emissions, 55% from diffuse-source emissions). The point-source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX, and the resulting dose is used for compliance purposes. {sm_bullet} Site 300: 0.019 mrem (0.19 {micro}Sv) (79% from point-source emissions, 21% from diffuse-source emissions). The EDEs were calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air dispersion/dose-assessment model, except for doses for four diffuse sources, which were calculated from measured concentrations and dose coefficients. Site specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide usage inventory data or continuous stack monitoring data were the specific input to CAP88-PC for each modeled source.

  8. Modeling of the coupled magnetospheric and neutral wind dynamos. Annual Technical status report No. 2, 1 April 1994-30 March1995

    SciTech Connect

    Thayer, J.P.; Vickrey, J.F.; Heelis, R.A.; Gary, J.B.

    1995-03-01

    Work at SRI involved modeling the exchange of electromagnetic energy between the ionosphere and magnetosphere to help interpret the DE-B Poynting flux observations. To describe the electrical properties of the high-latitude ionosphere, the authors constructed a numerical model, from the framework provided by the Vector Spherical Harmonic (VSH) model, that determines the ionospheric currents, conductivities, and electric fields including both magnetospheric inputs and neutral wind dynamo effects. This model development grew from the earlier question of whether an electrical energy source in the ionosphere was capable of providing an upward Poynting flux. The model solves the steady-state neutral wind dynamo equations and the Poynting flux equation to provide insight into the electrodynamic role of the neutral winds. The modeling effort to determine the high-latitude energy flux has been able to reproduce many of the large-scale features observed in the Poynting flux measurements made by DE-2. Because the Poynting flux measurement is an integrated result of energy flux into or out of the ionosphere, the authors investigated the ionospheric properties that may contribute to the observed flux of energy measured by the spacecraft. During steady state the electromagnetic energy flux, or DC Poynting flux, is equal to the Joule heating rate and the mechanical energy transfer rate in the high-latitude ionosphere. Although the Joule heating rate acts as an energy sink, transforming electromagnetic energy into thermal or internal energy of the gas, the mechanical energy transfer rate may be either a sink or source of electromagnetic energy. In the steady state, it is only the mechanical energy transfer rate that can generate electromagnetic energy and result in a DC Poynating flux that is directed out of the ionosphere.

  9. A chaotic-dynamical conceptual model to describe fluid flow and contaminant transport in a fractured vadose zone. 1997 progress report and presentations at the annual meeting, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, December 3--4, 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Faybishenko, B.; Doughty, C.; Geller, J.

    1998-07-01

    Understanding subsurface flow and transport processes is critical for effective assessment, decision-making, and remediation activities for contaminated sites. However, for fluid flow and contaminant transport through fractured vadose zones, traditional hydrogeological approaches are often found to be inadequate. In this project, the authors examine flow and transport through a fractured vadose zone as a deterministic chaotic dynamical process, and develop a model of it in these terms. Initially, the authors examine separately the geometric model of fractured rock and the flow dynamics model needed to describe chaotic behavior. Ultimately they will put the geometry and flow dynamics together to develop a chaotic-dynamical model of flow and transport in a fractured vadose zone. They investigate water flow and contaminant transport on several scales, ranging from small-scale laboratory experiments in fracture replicas and fractured cores, to field experiments conducted in a single exposed fracture at a basalt outcrop, and finally to a ponded infiltration test using a pond of 7 by 8 m. In the field experiments, they measure the time-variation of water flux, moisture content, and hydraulic head at various locations, as well as the total inflow rate to the subsurface. Such variations reflect the changes in the geometry and physics of water flow that display chaotic behavior, which they try to reconstruct using the data obtained. In the analysis of experimental data, a chaotic model can be used to predict the long-term bounds on fluid flow and transport behavior, known as the attractor of the system, and to examine the limits of short-term predictability within these bounds. This approach is especially well suited to the need for short-term predictions to support remediation decisions and long-term bounding studies. View-graphs from ten presentations made at the annual meeting held December 3--4, 1997 are included in an appendix to this report.

  10. Modeling joint effects of mixtures of chemicals on microorganisms using quantitative structure activity relationships. Annual report, 20 August 1991-19 August 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Nirmalakhandan, N.; Mohsin, M.; Arulgnanendran, V.; Bangxin, S.; Cadena, F.

    1992-01-01

    Toxicity of 50 organic chemicals to microorganisms was determined using the respirometeric approach. Using this experimental database, models for predicting toxicity (IC50 values) were developed using QSAR techniques. Toxicity measurements were also made for ten binary mixtures, and sixteen multi-component mixtures. The joint effects of organic chemicals in mixtures were analyzed by three different approaches. Using the QSAR model developed from single chemical studies, an approach was developed to analyze and predict joint effects of chemicals in mixtures. The results of this study indicate that the joint effects could be considered simply additive for the different classes of chemicals tested.

  11. Electric power annual 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-01-06

    The Electric Power Annual presents a summary of electric utility statistics at national, regional and State levels. The objective of the publication is to provide industry decisionmakers, government policymakers, analysts and the general public with historical data that may be used in understanding US electricity markets. The Electric Power Annual is prepared by the Survey Management Division; Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels; Energy Information Administration (EIA); US Department of Energy. ``The US Electric Power Industry at a Glance`` section presents a profile of the electric power industry ownership and performance, and a review of key statistics for the year. Subsequent sections present data on generating capability, including proposed capability additions; net generation; fossil-fuel statistics; retail sales; revenue; financial statistics; environmental statistics; electric power transactions; demand-side management; and nonutility power producers. In addition, the appendices provide supplemental data on major disturbances and unusual occurrences in US electricity power systems. Each section contains related text and tables and refers the reader to the appropriate publication that contains more detailed data on the subject matter. Monetary values in this publication are expressed in nominal terms.

  12. CMS Annual Report 2004

    SciTech Connect

    de la Rubia, T D; Shang, S P; Rennie, G; Fluss, M; Westbrook, C

    2005-07-29

    Glance at the articles in this report, and you will sense the transformation that is reshaping the landscape of materials science and chemistry. This transformation is bridging the gaps among chemistry, materials science, and biology--ushering in a wealth of innovative technologies with broad scientific impact. The emergence of this intersection is reinvigorating our strategic investment into areas that build on our strength of interdisciplinary science. It is at the intersection that we position our strategic vision into a future where we will provide radical materials innovations and solutions to our national-security programs and other sponsors. Our 2004 Annual Report describes how our successes and breakthroughs follow a path set forward by our strategic plan and four organizing research themes, each with key scientific accomplishments by our staff and collaborators. We have organized this report into two major sections: research themes and our dynamic teams. The research-theme sections focus on achievements arising from earlier investments while addressing future challenges. The dynamic teams section illustrates the directorate's organizational structure of divisions, centers, and institutes that support a team environment across disciplinary and institutional boundaries. The research presented in this annual report gives substantive examples of how we are proceeding in each of these four theme areas and how they are aligned with our national-security mission. By maintaining an organizational structure that offers an environment of collaborative problem-solving opportunities, we are able to nurture the discoveries and breakthroughs required for future successes.

  13. Annual Energy Review 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-07-14

    This twelfth edition of the Annual Energy Review (AER) presents the Energy Information Administration`s historical energy statistics. For most series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 1993. Because coverage spans four and a half decades, the statistics in this report are well-suited to long-term trend analyses. The AER is comprehensive. It covers all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices, for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels and electricity. The AER also presents Energy Information Administration (EIA) statistics on some renewable energy sources. EIA estimates that its consumption series include about half of the renewable energy used in the United States. For a more complete discussion of EIA`s renewables data, see p. xix, ``Introducing Expanded Coverage of Renewable Energy Data Into the Historical Consumption Series.`` Copies of the 1993 edition of the Annual Energy Review may be obtained by using the order form in the back of this publication. Most of the data in the 1993 edition also are available on personal computer diskette. For more information about the diskettes, see the back of this publication. In addition, the data are available as part of the National Economic, Social, and Environmental Data Bank on a CD-ROM. For more information about the data bank, contact the US Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration, on 202-482-1986.

  14. Annual Energy Review 2006

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2007-06-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are data on total energy production, consumption, and trade; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, international energy, as well as financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversion tables. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding data series in the AER and in other EIA publications.

  15. Annual Energy Review 2005

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2006-07-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are data on total energy production, consumption, and trade; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, international energy, as well as financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversion tables. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding data series in the AER and in other EIA publications.

  16. Annual Energy Review 2004

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2005-08-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are data on total energy production, consumption, and trade; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, international energy, as well as financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversion tables. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding data series in the AER and in other EIA publications.

  17. Annual Energy Review 2009

    SciTech Connect

    Fichman, Barbara T.

    2010-08-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are statistics on total energy production, consumption, trade, and energy prices; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and international energy; financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversions. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding the content of the AER and other EIA publications.

  18. Annual Energy Review 2011

    SciTech Connect

    Fichman, Barbara T.

    2012-09-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are statistics on total energy production, consumption, trade, and energy prices; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, and renewable energy; financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversions. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding the content of the AER and other EIA publications.

  19. 2006 Annual Merit Review Proceedings

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-18

    Each year hydrogen and fuel cell projects funded by DOE's Hydrogen Program are reviewed for their merit during an Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting. The 2006 Annual Merit Review, held May 16-19, 2006 in Arlington, Va., showcased approximately 250 projects. Principal investigators presented their project status and results in oral and poster presentations, which are available in the 2006 Annual Merit Review Proceedings. A panel of more than 150 community experts peer reviewed two-t

  20. Site S-7 Representative Model and Application for the Vadose Zone Monitoring System (VZMS) McClellan AFB - 1998 Semi-Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    James, A.L.; Oldenburg, C.M.

    1998-12-01

    Vadose zone data collection and enhanced data analysis are continuing for the Vadose Zone Monitoring System (VZMS) installed at site S-7 in IC 34 at McClellan MB. Data from core samples from boreholes drilled in 1998 and from VZMS continuous monitoring are evaluated and compared to previously collected data and analyses. The suite of data collected to date is used to develop and constrain a spatially averaged, one-dimensional site S-7 representative model that is implemented into T2VOC. Testing of the conceptual model under conditions of recharge of 100 mm/yr produces plausible moisture contents relative to data from several sources. Further scoping calculations involving gas-phase TCE transport in the representative model were undertaken. We investigate the role of recharge on TCE transport as well as the role of ion- and gas-phase flow driven by density and barometric pumping effects. This report provides the first example of the application of the site S-7 representative model in th e investigation of subsurface VOC movement.

  1. Implementing Astin's I-E-O Model in the Study of Student Retention: A Multivariate Time Dependent Approach. AIR 1996 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Leonard J.

    A study used Alexander Astin's (1993) Input-Environment-Output (I-E-O) model to examine persistence at the United States Coast Guard Academy (Connecticut). Because the study was conducted in a controlled social environment, measures of social environmental influence were derived from multiple inputs, including adaptability polls wherein every…

  2. Reasons for Staying: A Test of the Chain of Response Model among Community-College Students. AIR 2001 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salomonson, Kristen; Moss, Brian G.; Hill, H. Leon

    This paper uses the Chain of Response Model (CRM) to help explain retention in the community college population. In the CRM, the student's decision to remain at an educational institution is not an isolated act, but rather the result of a complex chain of responses based on her/his cognitive evaluation of the present situation. The authors applied…

  3. Study of mathematical models of mutation and selection in multi-locus systems. Annual progress report, October 1, 1980-September 30, 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Lewontin, R C

    1981-01-01

    During the past year, research has been devoted to two related studies of two-locus systems under natural selection and one on selection in haplo-diploid organisms. The principal results are: (1) Numerical studies were made of 2 locus selection models with asymmetric fitnesses. These were created by perturbing the fitness matrices of symmetric models whose results are known analytically. A complete classification of solved models has been made and all perturbations of these have been undertaken. The result is that all models lead to three classes of equilibrium structure. All are characterized by multiple equilbria with small linkage disequilibria under loose linkage and high complementarity equilibria under tight linkage. In some cases there is gene fixation at intermediate linkage. (2) It has been shown that selection may favor more recombination, contrary to the usual expectation, if multiple locus polymorphisms are maintained by a mechanism other than marginal overdominance. This may be the result of mutation-selection balance or frequency-dependent selection. (3) In a haplo-diploid system in which diploid males are lethal (as in bees and braconid wasps) the number of sex alleles that can be maintained depends both on breeding size and the number of colonies. Simulations show that the steady number is sensitive to the number of colonies but insensitive to the number of matings. Thirty-five to fifty colonies are sufficient to maintain very large numbers of sex alleles.

  4. A Structural Model of Student Integration, Finances, Behavior, and Career Development: An Elaborated Framework of Attitudes and Persistence. ASHE Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sandler, Martin E.

    As a response to the problems of nontraditional student attrition at two-year and four-year urban colleges, this paper introduces the constructs of career decision-making self-efficacy, perceived stress, and financial difficulty into a model built on the synthesis of Cabrera (1993). A questionnaire was administered to adult nontraditional (age 24…

  5. A chaotic-dynamical conceptual model to describe fluid flow and contaminant transport in a fractured vadose zone. 1997 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Faybishenko, B.

    1997-10-01

    'Understanding subsurface flow and transport processes is critical for effective assessment, decision-making, and remediation activities for contaminated sites. However, for fluid flow and contaminant transport through fractured vadose zones, traditional hydrogeological approaches are often found to be inadequate. In this project, the authors examine flow and transport through a fractured vadose zone as a deterministic chaotic dynamical process, and develop a model of it in these terms. Initially, they examine separately the geometric model of fractured rock and the flow dynamics model needed to describe chaotic behavior. Ultimately they will put the geometry and flow dynamics together to develop a chaotic-dynamical model of flow and transport in a fractured vadose zone. They investigate water flow and contaminant transport on several scales, ranging from small-scale laboratory experiments in fracture replicas and fractured cores, to field experiments conducted in a single exposed fracture at a basalt outcrop, and finally to a ponded infiltration test using a pond of 7 by 8 m. In the field experiments, the authors measure the time-variation of water flux, moisture content, and hydraulic head at various locations, as well as the total inflow rate to the subsurface. Such variations reflect the changes in the geometry and physics of water flow that display chaotic behavior, which the authors try to reconstruct using the data obtained. In the analysis of experimental data, a chaotic model can be used to predict the long-term bounds on fluid flow and transport behavior, known as the attractor of the system, and to examine the limits of short-term predictability within these bounds. This approach is especially well suited to the need for short-term predictions to support remediation decisions and long-term bounding studies.'

  6. Spatial Analysis of Weather-induced Annual and Decadal Average Yield Variability as Modeled by EPIC for Rain-fed Wheat in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khabarov, Nikolay; Balkovic, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Schwartz, Alexander; Obersteiner, Michael; Azevedo, Ligia B.

    2016-04-01

    In our analysis we evaluate the accuracy of near-term (decadal) average crop yield assessments as supported by the biophysical crop growth model EPIC. A spatial assessment of averages and variability has clear practical implications for agricultural producers and investors concerned with an estimation of the basic stochastic characteristics of a crop yield distribution. As a reliable weather projection for a time period of several years will apparently remain a challenge in the near future, we have employed the existing gridded datasets on historical weather as a best proxy for the current climate. Based on different weather inputs to EPIC, we analyzed the model runs for the rain-fed wheat for 1968-2007 employing AgGRID/GGCMI simulations using harmonized inputs and assumptions (weather datasets: GRASP and Princeton). We have explored the variability of historical ten-year yield averages in the past forty years as modeled by the EPIC model, and found that generally the ten-year average yield variability is less than 20% ((max-min)/average), whereas there are mid/low yielding areas with a higher ten-years average variability of 20-50%. The location of these spots of high variability differs between distinctive model-weather setups. Assuming that historical weather can be used as a proxy of the weather in the next ten years, a best possible EPIC-based assessment of a ten-year average yield is a range of 20% width ((max-min)/average). For some mid/low productive areas the range is up to 50% wide.

  7. Development of military performance models for the assessment of psychopharmacological agent impact. Annual report (Final), 1 September 1984-30 September 1987

    SciTech Connect

    Laughery, K.D.; Drews, C.

    1987-11-01

    In time of war, the human operators of military systems may be exposed to harmful psychopharmacological agents. Certain pretreatment drugs are known to ward off the harmful effects of chemical agents, but these drugs have adverse side effects that may degrade a soldier's ability to perform an operation. This report describes the development of a task network modeling tool which is used to simulate the effect of drugs on human performance. This tool is a software package known as Micro SAINT. It runs on an IBM PC or compatible microcomputer. The construction of models is entirely menu-driven, and does not require knowledge of computer programming. This report contains recommended procedures for conducting simulation analysis. Micro SAINT is presently being used in over 55 government installations.

  8. Study of mathematical models of mutation and selection in multi-locus systems. Annual progress report, April 1, 1979-March 31, 1980

    SciTech Connect

    Lewontin, R C

    1980-01-01

    During the past year, research has been devoted to two topics with principal results as follows: (1) an analytic and computer study was carried out of the growth of a population like the human population, which has age distributed mortality and fecundity, but for which the rates of birth and death are varying from period to period in time. The entries in the Leslie Matrix were considered to vary by a Markov process. The result is that although the expectation of the population size may grow, the numbers may decrease to zero with high probability and that, in general, the population size at time t depends upon the logarithm of growth rates, and ln lambda/sub t/ is asymptotically normally distributed; and (2) numerical studies were undertaken of 2 locus genetic models with asymmetric fitness matrices created by perturbing the parameters of symmetric fitness matrices where solutions are known analytically. The general results are that linkage equilibrium solutions do not exist at all for such asymmetric models, that the value of D at loose linkage is about the order of the asymmetry and that for asymmetric models there is a critical value of recombination below which new equilibria come into existence beside the one that exists for all r.

  9. Annual Energy Review 1999

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2000-07-01

    A generation ago the Ford Foundation convened a group of experts to explore and assess the Nation’s energy future, and published their conclusions in A Time To Choose: America’s Energy Future (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1974). The Energy Policy Project developed scenarios of U.S. potential energy use in 1985 and 2000. Now, with 1985 well behind us and 2000 nearly on the record books, it may be of interest to take a look back to see what actually happened and consider what it means for our future. The study group sketched three primary scenarios with differing assumptions about the growth of energy use. The Historical Growth scenario assumed that U.S. energy consumption would continue to expand by 3.4 percent per year, the average rate from 1950 to 1970. This scenario assumed no intentional efforts to change the pattern of consumption, only efforts to encourage development of our energy supply. The Technical Fix scenario anticipated a “conscious national effort to use energy more efficiently through engineering know-how." The Zero Energy Growth scenario, while not clamping down on the economy or calling for austerity, incorporated the Technical Fix efficiencies plus additional efficiencies. This third path anticipated that economic growth would depend less on energy-intensive industries and more on those that require less energy, i.e., the service sector. In 2000, total energy consumption was projected to be 187 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in the Historical Growth case, 124 quadrillion Btu in the Technical Fix case, and 100 quadrillion Btu in the Zero Energy Growth case. The Annual Energy Review 1999 reports a preliminary total consumption for 1999 of 97 quadrillion Btu (see Table 1.1), and the Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 2000) forecasts total energy consumption of 98 quadrillion Btu in 2000. What energy consumption path did the United States actually travel to get from 1974, when the scenarios were drawn

  10. Annual energy review 1994

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1995-07-01

    This 13th edition presents the Energy Information Administration's historical energy statistics. For most series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 1994; thus, this report is well-suited to long-term trend analyses. It covers all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels and electricity. Statistics on renewable energy sources are also included: this year, for the first time, usage of renewables by other consumers as well as by electric utilities is included. Also new is a two-part, comprehensive presentation of data on petroleum products supplied by sector for 1949 through 1994. Data from electric utilities and nonutilities are integrated as 'electric power industry' data; nonutility power gross generation are presented for the first time. One section presents international statistics (for more detail see EIA's International Energy Annual).

  11. Uranium Industry Annual, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-10-28

    The Uranium Industry Annual provides current statistical data on the US uranium industry for the Congress, Federal and State agencies, the uranium and electric utility industries, and the public. The feature article, ``Decommissioning of US Conventional Uranium Production Centers,`` is included. Data on uranium raw materials activities including exploration activities and expenditures, resources and reserves, mine production of uranium, production of uranium concentrate, and industry employment are presented in Chapter 1. Data on uranium marketing activities including domestic uranium purchases, commitments by utilities, procurement arrangements, uranium imports under purchase contracts and exports, deliveries to enrichment suppliers, inventories, secondary market activities, utility market requirements, and uranium for sale by domestic suppliers are presented in Chapter 2.

  12. Annual energy review 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1995-07-01

    This 13th edition presents the Energy Information Administration`s historical energy statistics. For most series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 1994; thus, this report is well-suited to long-term trend analyses. It covers all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels and electricity. Statistics on renewable energy sources are also included: this year, for the first time, usage of renewables by other consumers as well as by electric utilities is included. Also new is a two-part, comprehensive presentation of data on petroleum products supplied by sector for 1949 through 1994. Data from electric utilities and nonutilities are integrated as ``electric power industry`` data; nonutility power gross generation are presented for the first time. One section presents international statistics (for more detail see EIA`s International Energy Annual).

  13. Coal industry annual 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-12-06

    Coal Industry Annual 1993 replaces the publication Coal Production (DOE/FIA-0125). This report presents additional tables and expanded versions of tables previously presented in Coal Production, including production, number of mines, Productivity, employment, productive capacity, and recoverable reserves. This report also presents data on coal consumption, coal distribution, coal stocks, coal prices, coal quality, and emissions for a wide audience including the Congress, Federal and State agencies, the coal industry, and the general public. In addition, Appendix A contains a compilation of coal statistics for the major coal-producing States. This report does not include coal consumption data for nonutility Power Producers who are not in the manufacturing, agriculture, mining, construction, or commercial sectors. This consumption is estimated to be 5 million short tons in 1993.

  14. Evaluation of the inter-annual variability of stratospheric chemical composition in chemistry-climate models using ground-based multi species time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poulain, V.; Bekki, S.; Marchand, M.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Khodri, M.; Lefèvre, F.; Dhomse, S.; Bodeker, G. E.; Toumi, R.; De Maziere, M.; Pommereau, J.-P.; Pazmino, A.; Goutail, F.; Plummer, D.; Rozanov, E.; Mancini, E.; Akiyoshi, H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Austin, J.

    2016-07-01

    The variability of stratospheric chemical composition occurs on a broad spectrum of timescales, ranging from day to decades. A large part of the variability appears to be driven by external forcings such as volcanic aerosols, solar activity, halogen loading, levels of greenhouse gases (GHG), and modes of climate variability (quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)). We estimate the contributions of different external forcings to the interannual variability of stratospheric chemical composition and evaluate how well 3-D chemistry-climate models (CCMs) can reproduce the observed response-forcing relationships. We carry out multivariate regression analyses on long time series of observed and simulated time series of several traces gases in order to estimate the contributions of individual forcings and unforced variability to their internannual variability. The observations are typically decadal time series of ground-based data from the international Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and the CCM simulations are taken from the CCMVal-2 REF-B1 simulations database. The chemical species considered are column O3, HCl, NO2, and N2O. We check the consistency between observations and model simulations in terms of the forced and internal components of the total interannual variability (externally forced variability and internal variability) and identify the driving factors in the interannual variations of stratospheric chemical composition over NDACC measurement sites. Overall, there is a reasonably good agreement between regression results from models and observations regarding the externally forced interannual variability. A much larger fraction of the observed and modelled interannual variability is explained by external forcings in the tropics than in the extratropics, notably in polar regions. CCMs are able to reproduce the amplitudes of responses in chemical composition to specific external forcings

  15. Annual temperature and radiobrightness signatures for bare soils

    SciTech Connect

    Liou, Y.A.; England, A.W.

    1996-07-01

    The authors have developed physically based, diurnal, and annual models for freezing/thawing moist soils subject to annual isolation, radiant heating, and cooling, and sensible and latent heat exchanges with the atmosphere. Both models have the same weather forcing, numerical scheme, and soil constitutive properties. They find that surface temperature differences over a diurnal cycle between the annual and diurnal models are as much as {minus}5 K in March, {minus}7 K in June, {minus}4 K in September, and 5 K in December for 38% (by volume fraction) moist soil. This difference occurs because the annual model includes the history of energy fluxes at the surface of the soil. The annual model is linked to microwave emission models for predictions of temporal radiobrightness signatures. The model predicts a relatively weak decrease in diurnal differences in soil temperature with increased moisture content, but a significant decrease in diurnal differences in radiobrightness. It also exhibits notable perturbations in radiobrightness when soils freeze and thaw. The moisture dependent, day-to-night radiobrightness difference is enhanced by as much as {minus}42 K at 19.35 GHz horizontal polarization for frozen soil if daytime thawing occurs.

  16. Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review provides a yearly comparison between realized energy outcomes and the Reference case projections included in previous Annual Energy Outlooks (AEO) beginning with 1982. This edition of the report adds the AEO 2012 projections and updates the historical data to incorporate the latest data revisions.

  17. 2005 Annual Merit Review Proceedings

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-18

    Each year hydrogen and fuel cell projects funded by DOE's Hydrogen Program are reviewed for their merit during an Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting. The 2005 Annual Merit Review was held May 23-25, 2005 in Arlington, VA

  18. 2004 Annual Merit Review Proceedings

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-18

    Each year hydrogen and fuel cell projects funded by DOE's Hydrogen Program are reviewed for their merit during an Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting. The 2004 Annual Merit Review was held May 24-27, 2004 in Philadelphia, PA

  19. Integration of advanced geoscience and engineering techniques to quantify interwell heterogeneity in reservoir models. Annual report, September 29, 1994--September 30, 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, F.D.; Buckley, J.S.; Weiss, W.W.; Ouenes, A.

    1996-04-01

    The purpose of this project is to conduct a variety of laboratory and field tests and utilize all the geological, geophysical, and engineering information to develop a mathematical model of the reservoir by the use of global optimization methods. This interdisciplinary effort will integrate advanced geoscience and reservoir engineering concepts to quantify interwell reservoir heterogeneity and the dynamics of fluid-rock and fluid-fluid interactions. The reservoir characterization includes geological methods (outcrop and reservoir rock studies), geophysical methods (interwell acoustic techniques), and other reservoir/hydrologic methodologies including analyses of pressure transient data, core studies, and tracer tests. The field testing is being conducted at the Sulimar Queen Unit with related laboratory testing at the PRRC on samples from the Sulimar site and Queen sandstone outcrops. The aim is to (1) characterize and quantify lithologic heterogeneity, (2) mathematically quantify changes in the heterogeneity at various scales, (3) integrate the wide variety of data into a model that is jointly constrained by the interdisciplinary interpretive effort, and (4) help optimize petroleum recovery efficiencies.

  20. Integration of advanced geoscience and engineering techniques to quantify interwell heterogeneity in reservoir models. First annual report, September 29, 1993--September 30, 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, F.D.; Buckley, J.S.; Weiss, W.W.; Ouenes, A.

    1995-05-01

    The goal of this project is to provide a more quantitative definition of reservoir heterogeneity. This objective will be accomplished through the integration of geologic, geophysical, and engineering databases into a multidisciplinary understanding of reservoir architecture and associated fluid-rock and fluid-fluid interactions. The intent is to obtain a quantitative reservoir description incorporating outcrop, field, well-to-well, and laboratory core and fluid data of widely varying scales. This interdisciplinary effort will integrate geological and geophysical data with engineering and petrophysical results through reservoir simulation to quantify reservoir architecture and the dynamics of fluid-rock and fluid-fluid interactions. A more accurate reservoir description will allow greater accuracy and confidence during simulation and modeling as steps toward gaining greater recovery efficiency from existing reservoirs. A field laboratory, the Sulimar Queen Unit, is available for the field research activities that will be conducted.

  1. Depositional sequence analysis and sedimentologic modeling for improved prediction of Pennsylvanian reservoirs (Annex 1). Annual report, February 1, 1991--January 31, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Watney, W.L.

    1992-08-01

    Interdisciplinary studies of the Upper Pennsylvanian Lansing and Kansas City groups have been undertaken in order to improve the geologic characterization of petroleum reservoirs and to develop a quantitative understanding of the processes responsible for formation of associated depositional sequences. To this end, concepts and methods of sequence stratigraphy are being used to define and interpret the three-dimensional depositional framework of the Kansas City Group. The investigation includes characterization of reservoir rocks in oil fields in western Kansas, description of analog equivalents in near-surface and surface sites in southeastern Kansas, and construction of regional structural and stratigraphic framework to link the site specific studies. Geologic inverse and simulation models are being developed to integrate quantitative estimates of controls on sedimentation to produce reconstructions of reservoir-bearing strata in an attempt to enhance our ability to predict reservoir characteristics.

  2. Global greenhouse gas balance induced by nitrogen addition: Modeling annual fluxes of CO2, CH4 and N2O from 1948 to 2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Xu, X.; Liu, M.; Ren, W.

    2010-12-01

    Increasing amount of nitrogen (N) deposited onto land surface and N fertilizer consumed in crop production has largely altered the global N availability and the consequent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A wide range of scientific studies have focused on estimation of carbon sink resulting from N enrichment at global scale, and confirmed that atmospheric and anthropogenic N additions have substantially stimulated terrestrial CO2 uptake over the past decades. However, it is an incomplete accounting to assess N impacts without considering responses of other GHGs, such as CH4 and N2O, which are proved to be more potent than CO2 in warming the earth. Little is known on the spatial distribution and temporal trends of N-induced GHGs balance across the globe. Here we used large-scale mechanistic model, Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM), to examine how enhanced N deposition and N fertilizer application affected global fluxes of three major biogenic GHGs from 1948 to 2008, and hence what potential impacts on the climate system were implied by changes in GHGs balance in response to N addition. Our simulation indicates that CH4 and N2O emission caused by N enrichment have offset nearly 30% of N-induced CO2 uptake in terms of global warming potential (GWP), although N input greatly stimulated terrestrial CO2 assimilation in both natural vegetation and agricultural land. It is noticeable that N fertilizer application-induced CO2 uptake began to level off in the 1980s whereas N2O emission continued to grow along with increase in reactive N amount. The total GWP kept decreasing in the early study period and remained relatively stable since the 1980s, which means fertilized N showed increasing cooling effect in the early decades and then ceased rising.

  3. Spectroscopy, modeling and computation of metal chelate solubility in supercritical CO{sub 2}. Annual progress report, September 15, 1996--September 14, 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Brennecke, J.F.; Stadtherr, M.A.; Chateauneuf, J.E.

    1997-01-01

    'This progress report contains (1) a statement of the objectives of the overall project, (2) a discussion of the results obtained during the first year of the three year grant period, (3) a summary, (4) a description of the future work that will be pursued during the next year, and (5) accounting information. This is followed by the literature cited and the pertinent tables and figures. The overall objectives of this project are to gain a fundamental understanding of the solubility and stability of metal chelates in supercritical CO{sub 2}. Extraction with CO{sub 2} is a excellent way to remove organic compounds from soils, sludges and aqueous solutions and recent research has demonstrated that together with chelating agents it is a viable way to remove metals, as well. The authors seek to gain fundamental knowledge that is vital to computing phase behavior, and modeling and designing processes using CO{sub 2} to separate organics and metal compounds from DOE mixed wastes. The overall program is a comprehensive one to measure local solvation of metal chelates and to determine metal chelate stability in supercritical fluid mixtures using UV-vis and FTIR spectroscopy. The spectroscopic studies provide information on the solution microstructure, which they are using in concert with their own and published solubility data to evaluate and develop thermodynamic models of the solubility behavior. Finally, they are implementing a more reliable computational technique, based on interval mathematics, to compute the phase equilibria using the thermodynamic modeIs. This fundamental information about metal chelate stability and solubility in supercritical CO{sub 2} is important in the design of processes using CO{sub 2} to extract components from mixed wastes and in determining the optimum operating conditions.'

  4. Influence of Sea Surface Temperature, Tropospheric Humidity and Lapse Rate on the Annual Cycle of the Clear-Sky Greenhouse Effect

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hu, H.; Liu, W.

    2000-01-01

    The implication of this work will provide modeling study a surrogate of annual cycle of the greenhouse effect. For example, the model should be able to simulate the annual cycle before it can be used for global change study.

  5. Conceptual Spawning Habitat Model to Aid in ESA Recovery Plans for Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon, 2002-2003 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Geist, David

    2005-09-01

    The goal of this project is to develop a spawning habitat model that can be used to determine the physical habitat factors that are necessary to define the production potential for fall chinook salmon that spawn in large mainstem rivers like the Columbia River's Hanford Reach and Snake River. This project addresses RPA 155 in the NMFS 2000 Biological Opinion: Action 155: BPA, working with BOR, the Corps, EPA, and USGS, shall develop a program to: (1) Identify mainstem habitat sampling reaches, survey conditions, describe cause-and-effect relationships, and identify research needs; (2) Develop improvement plans for all mainstem reaches; and (3) Initiate improvements in three mainstem reaches. During FY 2003 we continued to collect and analyze information on fall chinook salmon spawning habitat characteristics in the Hanford Reach that will be used to address RPA 155, i.e., items 1-3 above. For example, in FY 2003: (1) We continued to survey spawning habitat in the Hanford Reach and develop a 2-dimensional hydraulic and habitat model that will be capable of predicting suitability of fall chinook salmon habitat in the Hanford Reach; (2) Monitor how hydro operations altered the physical and chemical characteristics of the river and the hyporheic zone within fall chinook salmon spawning areas in the Hanford Reach; (3) Published a paper on the impacts of the Columbia River hydroelectric system on main-stem habitats of fall chinook salmon (Dauble et al. 2003). This paper was made possible with data collected on this project; (4) Continued to analyze data collected in previous years that will ultimately be used to identify cause-and-effect relationships and identify research needs that will assist managers in the improvement of fall chinook habitat quality in main-stem reaches. During FY 2004 we plan to: (1) Complete preliminary reporting and submit papers based on the results of the project through FY 2004. Although we have proposed additional analysis of data be

  6. Comparison of the bioavailability of elemental waste laden soils using in vivo and in vitro analytical methodology and refinement of exposure/dose models. 1998 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Lioy, P.J.; Gallo, M.; Georgopoulos, P.; Tate, R.; Buckley, B.

    1998-06-01

    'The authors hypotheses are: (1) the more closely the synthetic, in vitro, extractant mimics the extraction properties of the human digestive bio-fluids, the more accurate will be the estimate of an internal dose; (2) performance can be evaluated by in vivo studies with a rat model and quantitative examination of a mass balance, calculation and dose estimates from model simulations for the in vitro and in vivo system; and (3) the concentration of the elements Pb, Cd, Cr and selected Radionuclides present in the bioavailable fraction obtained with a synthetic extraction system will be a better indicator of contaminant ingestion from a contaminated soil because it represents the portion of the mass which can yield exposure, uptake and then the internal dose to an individual. As of April 15, 1998, they have made significant progress in the development of a unified approach to the examination of bioavailability and bioaccessibility of elemental contamination of soils for the ingestion route of exposure. This includes the initial characterization of the soil, in vitro measurements of bioaccessibility, and in vivo measurements of bioavailability. They have identified the basic chemical and microbiological characteristics of waste laden soils. These have been used to prioritize the soils for potential mobility of the trace elements present in the soil. Subsequently they have employed a mass balance technique, which for the first time tracked the movement and distribution of elements through an in vitro or in vivo experimental protocol to define the bioaccessible and the bioavailable fractions of digested soil. The basic mass balance equation for the in vitro system is: MT = MSGJ + MIJ + MR. where MT is the total mass extractable by a specific method, MSGJ, is the mass extracted by the saliva and the gastric juices, MIJ is the mass extracted by the intestinal fluid, and MR is the unextractable portion of the initial mass. The above is based upon the use of a synthetic

  7. Bioavailability of organic solvents in soils: Input into biologically based dose-response models for human risk assessments. 1998 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Wester, R.C.; Maibach, H.I.

    1998-06-01

    'The purpose of this study is to determine the bioavailability of organic solvents following dermal exposures to contaminated soil and water. Breath analysis is being used to obtain real-time measurements of volatile organics in expired air following exposure in rats and humans. Rhesus monkeys will be used as surrogates for humans in benzene exposures. The exhaled breath data is being analyzed using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models to determine the dermal bioavailability of organic solvents under realistic exposure conditions. The end product of this research will be a tested framework for the rapid screening of real and potential exposures while simultaneously developing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models to comprehensively evaluate and compare exposures to organics from either contaminated soil or water. This report summarizes work 7 months into a 3-year project. Method development has produced systems for solvent exposure from soil and water which mimic actual exposure, and for which animals and human volunteers can be safely tested. Soil exposure is generally open to the air (working the soil) while water exposure is generally immersion. For 6--8 hour test exposure, a patch has been developed where soil is contained against the skin by a non-occlusive membrane, while simultaneously allowing volatilization of test solvent to the environment (activated charcoal). The water counterpart is an occlusive glass culture dish, sealed to skin with silicone adhesive. Shorter term exposure is done by one hand immersion in a bucket containing circulating water or soil, the volunteer instructed to move fingers through the water or soil. Human volunteers and animals breathe fresh air via a new breath-inlet system that allows for continuous real-time analysis of undiluted exhaled air. The air supply system is self-contained and separated from the exposure solvent-laden environment. The system uses a Teledyne 3DQ Discovery ion trap mass

  8. Modeling study of seasonal and inter-annual variability of circulation in the coastal upwelling site of the El Loa River off northern Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palma, Winston; Escribano, Ruben; Rosales, Sergio A.

    2006-03-01

    A three-dimensional numerical model using the Finite Element Method (FEM) was used to diagnose coastal currents off the El Loa River (21° S) in the northern upwelling region of Chile. This site has been recognized as an important spawning zone of the southern anchovy Engraulis ringens. Diagnostic current fields were obtained for summer and winter during the 1997-1998 El Niño conditions and during a "normal" upwelling year. The results show this site as an efficient retention area in the nearshore, because of a reduced cross-shelf flow, a strong alongshore flow and presence of several anticyclonic eddies. A simulated Lagrangian experiment indicated that retention within the nearshore (<10 km) may last for more than 4 days under a steady-state wind condition. Wind regimes and water density fields during 1997-1998 (El Niño) and 1995-1996 ("normal" upwelling) did not cause differences in the general pattern of coastal circulation. However, the magnitudes of both the alongshore and the cross-shelf flows are substantially reduced during El Niño in the nearshore spawning zone, possibly as a consequence of an anomalous water mass in the coastal area. This altered condition may limit the transport and dispersion of anchovy spawning products.

  9. Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Jiancang; Jiang, Changsheng

    2012-02-01

    The Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency in China is held by the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) in order to provide one-year earthquake predictions over most China. In these predictions, regions of concern are denoted together with the corresponding magnitude range of the largest earthquake expected during the next year. Evaluating the performance of these earthquake predictions is rather difficult, especially for regions that are of no concern, because they are made on arbitrary regions with flexible magnitude ranges. In the present study, the gambling score is used to evaluate the performance of these earthquake predictions. Based on a reference model, this scoring method rewards successful predictions and penalizes failures according to the risk (probability of being failure) that the predictors have taken. Using the Poisson model, which is spatially inhomogeneous and temporally stationary, with the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitudes as the reference model, we evaluate the CEA predictions based on 1) a partial score for evaluating whether issuing the alarmed regions is based on information that differs from the reference model (knowledge of average seismicity level) and 2) a complete score that evaluates whether the overall performance of the prediction is better than the reference model. The predictions made by the Annual Consultation Meetings on Earthquake Tendency from 1990 to 2003 are found to include significant precursory information, but the overall performance is close to that of the reference model.

  10. Annual Energy Review 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2001-08-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) presents the Energy Information Administration’s historical energy statistics. For many series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 2000. The statistics, expressed in either physical units or British thermal units, cover all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices, for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels, electricity, and renewable energy sources. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the Energy Information Administration under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding data series in the AER and in other EIA publications.

  11. Annual Energy Review 2002

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    2003-10-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) presents the Energy Information Administration’s historical energy statistics. For many series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 2002. The statistics, expressed in either physical units or British thermal units, cover all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices, for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels, electricity, and renewable energy sources. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding data series in the AER and in other EIA publications. Related Publication: Readers of the AER may also be interested in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review, which presents monthly updates of many of the data in the AER. Contact our National Energy Information Center for more information.

  12. 2007 LDRD ANNUAL REPORT

    SciTech Connect

    French, T

    2008-12-16

    I am pleased to present the fiscal year 2007 Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) annual report. This represents the first year that SRNL has been eligible for LDRD participation and our results to date demonstrate we are off to an excellent start. SRNL became a National Laboratory in 2004, and was designated the 'Corporate Laboratory' for the DOE Office of Environmental Management (EM) in 2006. As you will see, we have made great progress since these designations. The LDRD program is one of the tools SRNL is using to enable achievement of our strategic goals for the DOE. The LDRD program allows the laboratory to blend a strong basic science component into our applied technical portfolio. This blending of science with applied technology provides opportunities for our scientists to strengthen our capabilities and delivery. The LDRD program is vital to help SRNL attract and retain leading scientists and engineers who will help build SRNL's future and achieve DOE mission objectives. This program has stimulated our research staff creativity, while realizing benefits from their participation. This investment will yield long term dividends to the DOE in its Environmental Management, Energy, and National Security missions.

  13. Nuclear medicine annual 1990

    SciTech Connect

    Freeman, L.M. )

    1990-01-01

    Two of the major areas of cutting-edge nuclear medicine research, single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) functional brain imaging and monoclonal antibody studies receive attention in this volume. Advances in these areas are critical to the continued growth of our specialty. Fortunately, the current outlook in both areas remains quite optimistic. As has been the policy in the first decade of publication, thorough state-of-the-art reviews on existing procedures are interspersed with chapters dealing with research developments. The editor wishes to express a particular note of appreciation to a very supportive British colleague, Dr. Ignac Fogelman, who is becoming a regular contributor. His exhaustive review of the role of nuclear medicine in the evaluation of osteoporotic patients is packed with extremely useful information that will prove to be fruitful to all readers. The author would like to thank the readers and colleagues who have taken the time to offer useful and constructive comments over the past ten years. The author continue to welcome suggestions that will help to further improve this Annual.

  14. Annual Energy Review 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherine E.

    1998-07-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) presents the Energy Information Administration’s historical energy statistics. For many series, statistics are given for every year from 1949 through 1997. The statistics, expressed in either physical units or British thermal units, cover all major energy activities, including consumption, production, trade, stocks, and prices, for all major energy commodities, including fossil fuels, electricity, and renewable energy sources. Publication of this report is in keeping with responsibilities given to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), which states, in part, in Section 205(a)(2) that: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding data series in the AER and in other EIA publications.

  15. LLNL NESHAPs 2008 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Bertoldo, N; Gallegos, G; MacQueen, D; Wegrecki, A; Wilson, K

    2009-06-25

    Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC operates facilities at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) where radionuclides are handled and stored. These facilities are subject to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) in Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Title 40, Part 61, Subpart H, which regulates radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. Specifically, NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent of 10 mrem (100 {mu}Sv) to any member of the public. Using measured and calculated emissions, and building-specific and common parameters, LLNL personnel applied the EPA-approved computer code, CAP88-PC, Version 1.0, to calculate the dose to the maximally exposed individual for the Livermore site and Site 300. The dose for the LLNL site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from operations in 2008 are summarized here: {sm_bullet} Livermore site: 0.0013 mrem (0.013 {mu}Sv) (26% from point source emissions, 74% from diffuse source emissions). The point source emissions include gaseous tritium modeled as tritiated water vapor as directed by EPA Region IX; the resulting dose is used for compliance purposes. {sm_bullet} Site 300: 0.000000044 mrem (0.00000044 {mu}Sv) (100% from point source emissions).

  16. Comparison of the bioavailability of elemental waste laden soils using in vivo and in vitro analytical methodology and refinement of exposure/dose model. 1997 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Gailo, M.; Georgopoulos, P.; Lioy, P.J.; Roy, A.

    1997-01-01

    particle size. Previous experience has suggested a preferential distribution of toxic materials in the small size fraction of soils, and that these particles will define the majority of the potential bioavailabiity of the soil. Initial mass balance experiments have been completed on the in vitro methodology, and they are attempting to optimize the recovery of total mass of each metal or radionuclide present in a soil. The mass balance studies have proceeded with the use of test soils from a home in Califon that has known arsenic contamination, and a lead contaminated soil from Columbia Univ. which has been used in human feeding studies. The plans for next year intend to focus on the analysis of the SRS samples, radioactive and non-radioactive and soils from other DOE sites and pharmacokinetic modeling. The technique development has moved to the point where the applications can be made using a reproducible protocol.'

  17. Spatially explicit modeling of annual and seasonal habitat for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and Northeastern California—An updated decision-support tool for management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Ricca, Mark A.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Sanchez-chopitea, Erika; Mauch, Kimberly; Niell, Lara; Gardner, Scott; Espinosa, Shawn; Delehanty, David J.

    2016-05-20

    Successful adaptive management hinges largely upon integrating new and improved sources of information as they become available. As a timely example of this tenet, we updated a management decision support tool that was previously developed for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereinafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations in Nevada and California. Specifically, recently developed spatially explicit habitat maps derived from empirical data played a key role in the conservation of this species facing listing under the Endangered Species Act. This report provides an updated process for mapping relative habitat suitability and management categories for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California (Coates and others, 2014, 2016). These updates include: (1) adding radio and GPS telemetry locations from sage-grouse monitored at multiple sites during 2014 to the original location dataset beginning in 1998; (2) integrating output from high resolution maps (1–2 m2) of sagebrush and pinyon-juniper cover as covariates in resource selection models; (3) modifying the spatial extent of the analyses to match newly available vegetation layers; (4) explicit modeling of relative habitat suitability during three seasons (spring, summer, winter) that corresponded to critical life history periods for sage-grouse (breeding, brood-rearing, over-wintering); (5) accounting for differences in habitat availability between more mesic sagebrush steppe communities in the northern part of the study area and drier Great Basin sagebrush in more southerly regions by categorizing continuous region-wide surfaces of habitat suitability index (HSI) with independent locations falling within two hydrological zones; (6) integrating the three seasonal maps into a composite map of annual relative habitat suitability; (7) deriving updated land management categories based on previously determined cut-points for intersections of habitat suitability and an updated index of sage

  18. Spatially explicit modeling of annual and seasonal habitat for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and Northeastern California—An updated decision-support tool for management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Ricca, Mark A.; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Sanchez-chopitea, Erika; Mauch, Kimberly; Niell, Lara; Gardner, Scott; Espinosa, Shawn; Delehanty, David J.

    2016-05-20

    Successful adaptive management hinges largely upon integrating new and improved sources of information as they become available. As a timely example of this tenet, we updated a management decision support tool that was previously developed for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereinafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations in Nevada and California. Specifically, recently developed spatially explicit habitat maps derived from empirical data played a key role in the conservation of this species facing listing under the Endangered Species Act. This report provides an updated process for mapping relative habitat suitability and management categories for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California (Coates and others, 2014, 2016). These updates include: (1) adding radio and GPS telemetry locations from sage-grouse monitored at multiple sites during 2014 to the original location dataset beginning in 1998; (2) integrating output from high resolution maps (1–2 m2) of sagebrush and pinyon-juniper cover as covariates in resource selection models; (3) modifying the spatial extent of the analyses to match newly available vegetation layers; (4) explicit modeling of relative habitat suitability during three seasons (spring, summer, winter) that corresponded to critical life history periods for sage-grouse (breeding, brood-rearing, over-wintering); (5) accounting for differences in habitat availability between more mesic sagebrush steppe communities in the northern part of the study area and drier Great Basin sagebrush in more southerly regions by categorizing continuous region-wide surfaces of habitat suitability index (HSI) with independent locations falling within two hydrological zones; (6) integrating the three seasonal maps into a composite map of annual relative habitat suitability; (7) deriving updated land management categories based on previously determined cut-points for intersections of habitat suitability and an updated index of sage

  19. LLNL NESHAPs 2004 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Harrach, R; Gallegos, G; Peterson, R; Wilson, K; Harrach, R J; Gallegos, G M; Peterson, S R; Wilson, K R

    2005-06-27

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs; Title 40 Code of Federal Regulations [CFR] Part 61, Subpart H). Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities.

  20. Annual energy review 2003

    SciTech Connect

    Seiferlein, Katherin E.

    2004-09-30

    The Annual Energy Review 2003 is a statistical history of energy activities in the United States in modern times. Data are presented for all major forms of energy by production (extraction of energy from the earth, water, and other parts of the environment), consumption by end-user sector, trade with other nations, storage changes, and pricing. Much of the data provided covers the fossil fuels—coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Fossil fuels are nature’s batteries; they have stored the sun’s energy over millennia past. It is primarily that captured energy that we are drawing on today to fuel the activities of the modern economy. Data in this report measure the extraordinary expansion of our use of fossil fuels from 29 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 1949 to 84 quadrillion Btu in 2003. In recent years, fossil fuels accounted for 86 percent of all energy consumed in the United States. This report also records the development of an entirely new energy industry—the nuclear electric power industry. The industry got its start in this country in 1957 when the Shippingport, Pennsylvania, nuclear electric power plant came on line. Since that time, the industry has grown to account for 20 percent of our electrical output and 8 percent of all energy used in the country. Renewable energy is a third major category of energy reported in this volume. Unlike fossil fuels, which are finite in supply, renewable energy is essentially inexhaustible because it can be replenished. Types of energy covered in the renewable category include conventional hydroelectric power, which is power derived from falling water; wood; waste; alcohol fuels; geothermal; solar; and wind. Together, these forms of energy accounted for about 6 percent of all U.S. energy consumption in recent years.

  1. Annual energy review 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    The Annual Energy Review (AER) is a historical data report that tells many stories. It describes, in numbers, the changes that have occurred in US energy markets since the midpoint of the 20th century. In many cases, those markets differ vastly from those of a half-century ago. By studying the graphs and data tables presented in this report, readers can learn about past energy supply and usage in the United States and gain an understanding of the issues in energy and the environment now before use. While most of this year`s report content is similar to last year`s, there are some noteworthy developments. Table 1.1 has been restructured into more summarized groupings -- fossil fuels, nuclear electric power, and renewable energy -- to aid analysts in their examination of the basic trends in those broad categories. Readers` attention is also directed to the electricity section, where considerable reformatting of the tables and graphs has been carried out to help clarify past and recent trends in the electric power industry as it enters a period of radical restructuring. Table 9.1, which summarizes US nuclear generating units, has been redeveloped to cover the entire history of the industry in this country and to provide categories relevant in assessing the future of the industry, such as the numbers of ordered generating units that have been canceled and those that were built and later shut down. In general, the AER emphasizes domestic energy statistics. Sections 1 through 10 and Section 12 are devoted mostly to US data; Section 11 reports on international statistics and world totals. 140 figs., 141 tabs.

  2. Annual and semi-annual variability of cloud covering in Abastumani and their coupling with cosmic factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Todua, M.; Didebulidze, G. G.

    2016-09-01

    Investigation of the influence of cosmic factors on the Earths's atmosphere is an important issue of the atmospheric and solar-terrestrial coupling studies. Contribution of cosmic factors to the climate change, included in the solar-terrestrial coupling models, is a matter of increasing interest. We studied long-term inter-annual variations of cloud covering in Abastumani Astrophysical Observatory (N41°45'; E42°49') during day- and night-time, at various helio-geophysical conditions, as well as coupling with cosmic factors. We found that these distributions are different: for cloudless days they reveal semi-annual periodicity, while for cloudless nights both annual and semi-annual ones are observed, depending also on geomagnetic activity. This may be a manifestation of possible influence of cosmic factors on cloud covering.

  3. Modeling the effects of annual influenza vaccination

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, D.J.; Ackley, D.H.; Forrest, S.; Perelson, A.S.

    1998-12-31

    Although influenza vaccine efficacy is 70--90% in young healthy first-time vaccinees, the efficacy in repeat vaccinees has varied considerably. In some studies, vaccine efficacy in repeat vaccinees was higher than in first-time vaccinees, whereas in other studies vaccine efficacy in repeat vaccinees was significantly lower than in first-time vaccinees and sometimes no higher than in unvaccinated controls. It is known that the closeness of the antigenic match between the vaccine strain and the epidemic virus is important for vaccine effectiveness. In this study the authors show that the antigenic differences between a first vaccine strain and a second vaccine strain, and between the first vaccine strain and the epidemic strain, might account for the observed variation in attack rate among two-time vaccinees.

  4. 77 FR 64463 - Annual Retail Trade Survey

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-22

    ..., the Census Bureau will collect data covering annual sales, annual e- commerce sales, year-end..., accounts receivables, and, for selected industries, merchandise line sales, and percent of e-commerce sales..., annual sales, annual e-commerce sales, purchases, total and detailed operating expenses,...

  5. 78 FR 64912 - Annual Retail Trade Survey

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-30

    ... survey, the Census Bureau will collect data covering annual sales, annual e-commerce sales, year-end... annual sales, annual e-commerce sales, year-end inventories held inside and outside the United States... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF...

  6. 75 FR 63804 - Annual Retail Trade Survey

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-10-18

    ... survey, the Census Bureau will collect data covering annual sales, annual e-commerce sales, year-end... percent of e-commerce sales to customers located outside the United States. These data are collected to... classification basis, annual sales, annual e-commerce sales, purchases, total operating expenses,...

  7. NERI 2004 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    2004-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) created the Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) in Fiscal Year (FY) 1999 in response to recommendations provided by the President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology. The purpose of NERI is to sponsor research and development (R&D) in the nuclear energy sciences to address the principal barriers to the future use of nuclear energy in the United States. NERI is helping to preserve the nuclear science and engineering infrastructure within the Nation's universities, laboratories, and industry, and is advancing the development of nuclear energy technology, enabling the United States to maintain a competitive position in nuclear science and technology. Research under this initiative also addresses issues associated with the maintenance of existing U.S. nuclear plants. The NERI program is managed and funded by DOE's Office of Nuclear Energy, Science and Technology. ''The Nuclear Energy Research Initiative 2004 Annual Report'' serves to inform interested parties of progress made in NERI on a programmatic level as well as research progress made on individual NERI projects. Section 2 of this report provides background on the creation and implementation of NERI and on the focus areas for NERI research. Section 3 provides a discussion on NERI's mission, goals and objectives, and work scope. Section 4 highlights the major accomplishments of the NERI projects and provides brief summaries of the NERI research efforts that were completed in 2004. Section 5 provides a discussion on the impact NERI has had on U.S. university nuclear programs. Sections 6 through 8 provide project status reports by research area for each of the fiscal year (FY) 2001 and 2002 projects that were active in FY 2004. Research objectives, progress made over the last year, and activities planned for the next year are described for each project. Sections 9 through 11 present each of the newly awarded 2005 NERI projects in their corresponding

  8. Annual Research Briefs, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spinks, Debra (Compiler)

    1998-01-01

    The topics contained in this progress report are direct numerical simulation of turbulent non-premixed combustion with realistic chemistry; LES of non-premixed turbulent reacting flows with conditional source term estimation; measurements of the three-dimensional scalar dissipation rate in gas-phase planar turbulent jets; direct simulation of a jet diffusion flame; on the use of interpolating wavelets in the direct numerical simulation of combustion; on the use of a dynamically adaptive wavelet collocation algorithm in DNS (direct numerical simulation) of non-premixed turbulent combustion; 2D simulations of Hall thrusters; computation of trailing-edge noise at low mach number using LES and acoustic analogy; weakly nonlinear modeling of the early stages of bypass transition; interactions between freestream turbulence and boundary layers; interfaces at the outer boundaries of turbulent motions; largest scales of turbulent wall flows; the instability of streaks in near-wall turbulence; an implementation of the v(sup 2) - f model with application to transonic flows; heat transfer predictions in cavities; a structure-based model with stropholysis effects; modeling a confined swirling coaxial jet; subgrid-scale models based on incremental unknowns for large eddy simulations; subgrid scale modeling taking the numerical error into consideration; towards a near-wall model for LES of a separated diffuser flow; on the feasibility of merging LES with RANS (Reynolds Averaging Numerical simulation) for the near-wall region of attached turbulent flows; large-eddy simulation of a separated boundary layer; numerical study of a channel flow with variable properties; on the construction of high order finite difference schemes on non-uniform meshes with good conservation properties; development of immersed boundary methods for complex geometries; and particle methods for micro and macroscale flow simulations.

  9. Annual Research Briefs, 1987

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moin, Parviz; Reynolds, William C.

    1988-01-01

    Lagrangian techniques have found widespread application to the prediction and understanding of turbulent transport phenomena and have yielded satisfactory results for different cases of shear flow problems. However, it must be kept in mind that in most experiments what is really available are Eulerian statistics, and it is far from obvious how to extract from them the information relevant to the Lagrangian behavior of the flow; in consequence, Lagrangian models still include some hypothesis for which no adequate supporting evidence was until now available. Direct numerical simulation of turbulence offers a new way to obtain Lagrangian statistics and so verify the validity of the current predictive models and the accuracy of their results. After the pioneering work of Riley (Riley and Patterson, 1974) in the 70's, some such results have just appeared in the literature (Lee et al, Yeung and Pope). The present contribution follows in part similar lines, but focuses on two particle statistics and comparison with existing models.

  10. FY 1994 Annual Work Plan

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-09-30

    In accordance with the Inspector General`s Strategic Planning Policy directive, the Office of Inspector General (OIG) annually updates its Strategic Plan with budgetary and program guidance for the next fiscal year. The program guidance identifies and establishes priorities for OIG coverage of important DOE issues and operations, provides the basis for assigning OIG resources, and is the source for issues covered in Assistant Inspectors General annual work plans. The Office of the Assistant Inspector General for Audits (AIGA) publishes an Annual Work Plan in September of each year. The plan includes the OIG program guidance and shows the commitment of resources necessary to accomplish the assigned work and meet our goals. The program guidance provides the framework within which the AIGA work will be planned and accomplished. Audits included in this plan are designed to help insure that the requirements of our stakeholders have been considered and blended into a well balanced audit program.

  11. USGS Annual Water Data Reports

    SciTech Connect

    2012-04-01

    Water resources data are published annually for use by engineers, scientists, managers, educators, and the general public. These archival products supplement direct access to current and historical water data provided by the National Water Information System (NWIS). Beginning with Water Year 2006, annual water data reports are available as individual electronic Site Data Sheets for the entire Nation for retrieval, download, and localized printing on demand. National distribution includes tabular and map interfaces for search, query, display and download of data. Data provided include extreme and mean discharge rates.

  12. LLNL NESHAP's 1999 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, G.; Biermann, A.H.; Harrach, R.J.; Bertoldo, N.A.; Berger, R.L.; Surano,K.A.

    2000-06-01

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) 40 CFR Part 61, Subpart H; Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 {micro}Sv) to any member of the public. The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from 1999 operations are summarized.

  13. Models for Strategic Program Development. Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Council for Programs in Technical and Scientific Communication (27th, Menomonie, Wisconsin, October 19-21, 2000).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maylath, Bruce, Ed.

    This document presents 48 papers delivered at the 2000 annual meeting of the Council for Programs in Technical and Scientific Communication (CPTSC). Papers in the proceedings are divided into 14 subsections: (1) Keynote Presentation: "Global Classroom Project (T. K. Herrington); (2) Opening Session Address: "What Industry Looks for in Technical…

  14. FY14 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Stoyer, M. A.; Scielzo, N. D.; Wu, C. Y.

    2014-09-10

    The neutrinos and neutrons emitted in nuclear β decay can be precisely studied using radioactive ions held in a radiofrequency-quadrupole ion trap. The momentum and energy of particles that would otherwise be difficult (or even impossible) to detect can be reconstructed from the momentum imparted to the recoiling nucleus. The β-delayed neutron emission for isotopes of interest for r-process nucleosynthesis is being studied. Measurements of β-decay angular correlations, which are sensitive to exotic particles and other phenomena beyond the Standard Model, can be improved by reconstructing the complete decay kinematics of the mirror 8Li and 8B β± decays. This research is well aligned with the Nuclear Science Advisory Committee Long Range Plan under NSAC Performance Evaluation Milestones: (1) NA6, part of which is to measure decay properties of selected neutron-rich nuclei in the r-process, and (2) FI4, to improve measurements of nuclear β decay to constrain physics beyond the Standard Model.

  15. Communication Yearbook 5. Annual Review.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burgoon, Michael, Ed.

    The fifth in a series of annual volumes published by the International Communication Association, this yearbook provides reviews, overviews, and syntheses of developments in the evolution of the science of communication. The 40 articles in the volume are categorized as follows: (1) communication reviews and commentaries, including issues in…

  16. CIEE 1993 annual conference: Program

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-08-01

    The California Institute for Energy efficiency`s third annual conference highlights the results of CIEE-sponsored multiyear research in three programs: Building Energy Efficiency, Air Quality Impacts of Energy Efficiency, and End-Use Resource Planning. Results from scoping studies, Director`s discretionary research, and exploratory research are also featured.

  17. The German Photographic Annual; 1972.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strache, Wolf, Ed.; Steinert, Otto, Ed.

    Designed as a forum for the creative photographer who can produce work of an outstanding character, this 18th edition of the annual presents over 160 photographs whose themes range from advertising and industrial pictures, through unusual pictorial solutions in fashion photography, to experimental work, novel nude studies, and dramatic landscapes.…

  18. 2014 Fordham Sponsorship Annual Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas B. Fordham Foundation, 2014

    2014-01-01

    The 2014 Fordham Sponsorship Annual Report is our opportunity to share the Fordham Foundation's work as the sponsor of eleven schools serving 3,200 students, and our related policy work in Ohio and nationally. We are fortunate as an organization that our policy work benefits our sponsorship efforts; and, that our lessons from sponsorship inform…

  19. Strategic petroleum reserve annual report

    SciTech Connect

    1996-02-15

    Section 165 of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (Public Law 94- 163), as amended, requires the Secretary of Energy to submit annual reports to the President and the Congress on activities of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This report describes activities for the year ending December 31, 1995.

  20. Spinoff 1978: An Annual Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, DC.

    This abstract is the annual report of NASA's Technology Utilization Program, which is charged with promoting and stimulating the practical application of government-sponsored aerospace technology. The report is organized in three sections: (1) aerospace aims; (2) technology twice used; and (3) technology utilization. Section 1 outlines NASA's…

  1. Facing Facts. Annual Report, 2005

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wallace Foundation, The, 2006

    2006-01-01

    This annual report highlights the work of some grantees who are finding innovative ways to respond to today's new challenges based on a rigorous commitment by their leadership to gathering pertinent facts. These include cities that are planning wide-scale, lasting improvements in arts learning or out-of-school opportunities, basing their choices…

  2. 1982 laser program annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Hendricks, C.D.; Grow, G.R.

    1983-08-01

    This annual report covers the following eight sections: (1) laser program review, (2) laser systems and operation, (3) target design, (4) target fabrication, (5) fusion experiments program, (6) Zeus laser project, (7) laser research and development, and (8) energy applications. (MOW)

  3. 76 FR 64071 - Annual Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-10-17

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office APPALACHIAN STATES LOW-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE COMMISSION Annual Meeting Time and Date: 10 a.m.-12:30 p.m. November 4, 2011. Place... year 2010-2011; (2) Review the Low- Level Radioactive Waste (LLRW) ] Disposal and Storage...

  4. 78 FR 64472 - Annual Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-29

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office APPALACHIAN STATES LOW-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE COMMISSION Annual Meeting Time and Date: 10 a.m.-12 p.m. October 31, 2013. Place: Harrisburg...-2013; (2) Review the Low- Level Radioactive Waste (LLRW) generation information for 2012; (3)...

  5. 75 FR 65297 - Annual Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-10-22

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office APPALACHIAN STATES LOW-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE COMMISSION Annual Meeting Time And Date: 10 a.m.-12:30 p.m., November 5, 2010. Place... year 2009-2010; (2) Review the Low- Level Radioactive Waste (LLRW) Disposal and Storage information...

  6. 77 FR 61737 - Annual Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-11

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office APPALACHIAN STATES LOW-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE COMMISSION Annual Meeting Time and Date: 10 a.m.-12 p.m. November 2, 2012. Place: Harrisburg...-2012; (2) Review the Low- Level Radioactive Waste (LLRW) generation information for 2010; (3)...

  7. Literacy House: Annual Report 1968.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Literacy House, Lucknow (India).

    The 1968 annual report of Literacy House focuses on functional literacy, food production, and family planning as well as on structural reorganization. A new organizational chart is included and the role of each individual in the organization is presented. The primary functions (training and research), and some details about the work of the…

  8. FY 1994 Annual Work Plan

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-10-01

    This is the third Office of Inspector General (OIG)Annual Work Plan. Its purpose is to summarize work completed in Fiscal Year (FY) 1993, identify ongoing projects from previous fiscal years which the OIG intends to continue into FY 1994, and announce planned projects which the OIG intends to begin in FY 19994.

  9. Farm Foundation. Annual Report, 1993.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farm Foundation, Chicago, IL.

    This annual report highlights a strategic plan focusing on issues that shape the changing future of agriculture and rural communities, and describes 1992 programs. The strategic plan addresses the following priority areas: (1) globalization; (2) environmental issues; (3) new technologies; (4) consumer issues; (5) role of agricultural institutions;…

  10. A Foundation for Faculty Evaluation: The Annual Development Plan.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tinari, Frank D.

    The W. Paul Stillman School of Business at Seton Hall University has implemented a model standardized annual Faculty Development Plan (FDP). A form was developed to collect data from each faculty member. The form is divided into the areas of teaching, research, and service, with several questions in each area asking faculty to specify their goals…

  11. Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030

    SciTech Connect

    2009-03-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009), prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030, based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). EIA published an “early release” version of the AEO2009 reference case in December 2008.

  12. 2007 Annual Report: Our Writing and Learning Connect Us

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Writing Project (NJ1), 2007

    2007-01-01

    The Mission of the National Writing Project (NWP) is to improve writing and learning in the nation's schools. Through its professional development model, the National Writing Project recognizes the primary importance of teacher knowledge, expertise, and leadership. This annual report features seven educators from urban, rural, and suburban…

  13. International and Intercultural Communication Annual, Volume VI, December 1982.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jain, Nemi C., Ed.

    Designed to serve as a forum for the exchange of ideas concerning international and intercultural communication, this annual volume contains articles that cover a variety of topics. The first half of the volume contains seven articles discussing the following: (1) a pragmatic approach to mass media development in three models of developing…

  14. Proceedings of the 4th Annual SCOLE Workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr. (Compiler)

    1988-01-01

    This publication is a collection of papers presented at the Fourth Annual Spacecraft Control Laboratory Experiment (SCOLE) Workshop held at the U.S.A.F. Academy, Colorado Springs, Colorado, November 16, 1987. The papers address the modeling, systems identification, and control synthesis for the Spacecraft Control Laboratory Experiment (SCOLE) configuration.

  15. An automated approach for annual layer counting in ice cores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winstrup, M.; Svensson, A.; Rasmussen, S. O.; Winther, O.; Steig, E.; Axelrod, A.

    2012-04-01

    The temporal resolution of some ice cores is sufficient to preserve seasonal information in the ice core record. In such cases, annual layer counting represents one of the most accurate methods to produce a chronology for the core. Yet, manual layer counting is a tedious and sometimes ambiguous job. As reliable layer recognition becomes more difficult, a manual approach increasingly relies on human interpretation of the available data. Thus, much may be gained by an automated and therefore objective approach for annual layer identification in ice cores. We have developed a novel method for automated annual layer counting in ice cores, which relies on Bayesian statistics. It uses algorithms from the statistical framework of Hidden Markov Models (HMM), originally developed for use in machine speech recognition. The strength of this layer detection algorithm lies in the way it is able to imitate the manual procedures for annual layer counting, while being based on purely objective criteria for annual layer identification. With this methodology, it is possible to determine the most likely position of multiple layer boundaries in an entire section of ice core data at once. It provides a probabilistic uncertainty estimate of the resulting layer count, hence ensuring a proper treatment of ambiguous layer boundaries in the data. Furthermore multiple data series can be incorporated to be used at once, hence allowing for a full multi-parameter annual layer counting method similar to a manual approach. In this study, the automated layer counting algorithm has been applied to data from the NGRIP ice core, Greenland. The NGRIP ice core has very high temporal resolution with depth, and hence the potential to be dated by annual layer counting far back in time. In previous studies [Andersen et al., 2006; Svensson et al., 2008], manual layer counting has been carried out back to 60 kyr BP. A comparison between the counted annual layers based on the two approaches will be presented

  16. Computation Directorate Annual Report 2003

    SciTech Connect

    Crawford, D L; McGraw, J R; Ashby, S F; McCoy, M G; Michels, T C; Eltgroth, P G

    2004-03-12

    Big computers are icons: symbols of the culture, and of the larger computing infrastructure that exists at Lawrence Livermore. Through the collective effort of Laboratory personnel, they enable scientific discovery and engineering development on an unprecedented scale. For more than three decades, the Computation Directorate has supplied the big computers that enable the science necessary for Laboratory missions and programs. Livermore supercomputing is uniquely mission driven. The high-fidelity weapon simulation capabilities essential to the Stockpile Stewardship Program compel major advances in weapons codes and science, compute power, and computational infrastructure. Computation's activities align with this vital mission of the Department of Energy. Increasingly, non-weapons Laboratory programs also rely on computer simulation. World-class achievements have been accomplished by LLNL specialists working in multi-disciplinary research and development teams. In these teams, Computation personnel employ a wide array of skills, from desktop support expertise, to complex applications development, to advanced research. Computation's skilled professionals make the Directorate the success that it has become. These individuals know the importance of the work they do and the many ways it contributes to Laboratory missions. They make appropriate and timely decisions that move the entire organization forward. They make Computation a leader in helping LLNL achieve its programmatic milestones. I dedicate this inaugural Annual Report to the people of Computation in recognition of their continuing contributions. I am proud that we perform our work securely and safely. Despite increased cyber attacks on our computing infrastructure from the Internet, advanced cyber security practices ensure that our computing environment remains secure. Through Integrated Safety Management (ISM) and diligent oversight, we address safety issues promptly and aggressively. The safety of our

  17. Identification and explanation of continental differences in the variability of annual runoff

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, Murray C.; McMahon, Thomas A.; Finlayson, Brian L.; Watson, Fred G. R.

    2001-09-01

    Continental differences in the variability of annual runoff were investigated using an expanded and improved database to that used in previous work. A statistical analysis of the data, divided by continent and Köppen climate type, revealed that continental differences exist in the variability of annual runoff. The variability of annual runoff for temperate Australia, arid southern Africa and possibly temperate southern Africa were noted to be generally higher than that of other continents with data in the same climate type. A statistical analysis of annual precipitation by continent and Köppen climate type revealed that differences in the variability of annual precipitation could account for some but not all the observed differences in the variability of annual runoff. A literature review of potential causes of continental differences in evapotranspiration resulted in the hypothesis that the significantly higher variability of annual runoff in temperate Australia and possibly temperate southern Africa may be due to the distribution of evergreen and deciduous vegetation. The process model Macaque was used to test this hypothesis. The model results indicate that the variability of annual runoff may be between 1 and 99% higher for catchments covered in evergreen vegetation as opposed to deciduous vegetation, depending on mean annual precipitation and the seasonality of precipitation. It is suggested that the observed continental differences in the variability of annual runoff are largely caused by continental differences in the variability of annual precipitation and in temperate regions the distribution of evergreen and deciduous vegetation in conjunction with the distribution of mean annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality.

  18. LLNL NESHAPs project 1997 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, G.M.

    1998-06-01

    NESHAP`s limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem (100 ({mu}Sv) to any member of the public The EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site- wide maximally exposed members of the public from 1997 operations were Livermore site. 0 097 mrem (0 97 {mu}Sv) (80% from point-source emissions), 20% from diffuse-source emissions), Site 300 0 014 mrem (O 14 {mu}Sv) (38% from point-source emissions, 62% from diffuse-source emissions) The EDEs were generally calculated using the EPA-approved CAP88-PC air- dispersion/dose-assessment model Site-specific meteorological data, stack flow data, and emissions estimates based on radionuclide inventory data or continuous-monitoring systems data were the specific input to CAP88-PC for each modeled source.

  19. General aviation activity survey. Annual summary report for 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-01-01

    This report presents the results of the annual General Aviation Activity Survey. The survey is conducted by the FAA to obtain information on the flight activity of the United States registered general aviation aircraft fleet. The report contains breakdowns of active aircraft, annual flight hours, average flight hours and other statistics by manufacturer/model group, aircraft type, state and region of based aircraft, and primary use. Also included are fuel consumption, lifetime airframe hours, engine hours, miles flown estimates, estimates of the number of landings, IFR hours flown, and grade of fuel consumed by the general aviation fleet. Aircraft, Aircraft activity, Aircraft use, Fuel consumption, General aviation, Hours flown, Miles flown.

  20. Investigations of natural groundwater hazards at the proposed Yucca Mountain high level nuclear waste repository. Part A: Geology at Yucca Mountain. Part B: Modeling of hydro-tectonic phenomena relevant to Yucca Mountain. Annual report - Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Szymanski, J.S.; Schluter, C.M.; Livingston, D.E.

    1993-05-01

    This document is an annual report describing investigations of natural groundwater hazards at the proposed Yucca Mountain, Nevada High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository.This document describes research studies of the origin of near surface calcite/silica deposits at Yucca Mountain. The origin of these deposits is controversial and the authors have extended and strengthened the basis of their arguments for epigenetic, metasomatic alteration of the tuffs at Yucca Mountain. This report includes stratigraphic, mineralogical, and geochronological information along with geochemical data to support the conclusions described by Livingston and Szymanski, and others. As part of their first annual report, they take this opportunity to clarify the technical basis of their concerns and summarize the critical geological field evidence and related information. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  1. 2009 ALCF annual report.

    SciTech Connect

    Beckman, P.; Martin, D.; Drugan, C.

    2010-11-23

    recognized the excellence of the entire Blue Gene series by awarding it to the National Medal of Technology and Innovation. Other noteworthy achievements included the ALCF's collaboration with the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) to examine cloud computing as a potential new computing paradigm for scientists. Named Magellan, the DOE-funded initiative will explore which science application programming models work well within the cloud, as well as evaluate the challenges that come with this new paradigm. The ALCF obtained approval for its next-generation machine, a 10-petaflops system to be delivered in 2012. This system will allow us to resolve ever more pressing problems, even more expeditiously through breakthrough science in the years to come.

  2. 2008 ALCF annual report.

    SciTech Connect

    Drugan, C.

    2009-12-07

    The word 'breakthrough' aptly describes the transformational science and milestones achieved at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) throughout 2008. The number of research endeavors undertaken at the ALCF through the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE) program grew from 9 in 2007 to 20 in 2008. The allocation of computer time awarded to researchers on the Blue Gene/P also spiked significantly - from nearly 10 million processor hours in 2007 to 111 million in 2008. To support this research, we expanded the capabilities of Intrepid, an IBM Blue Gene/P system at the ALCF, to 557 teraflops (TF) for production use. Furthermore, we enabled breakthrough levels of productivity and capability in visualization and data analysis with Eureka, a powerful installation of NVIDIA Quadro Plex S4 external graphics processing units. Eureka delivered a quantum leap in visual compute density, providing more than 111 TF and more than 3.2 terabytes of RAM. On April 21, 2008, the dedication of the ALCF realized DOE's vision to bring the power of the Department's high performance computing to open scientific research. In June, the IBM Blue Gene/P supercomputer at the ALCF debuted as the world's fastest for open science and third fastest overall. No question that the science benefited from this growth and system improvement. Four research projects spearheaded by Argonne National Laboratory computer scientists and ALCF users were named to the list of top ten scientific accomplishments supported by DOE's Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program. Three of the top ten projects used extensive grants of computing time on the ALCF's Blue Gene/P to model the molecular basis of Parkinson's disease, design proteins at atomic scale, and create enzymes. As the year came to a close, the ALCF was recognized with several prestigious awards at SC08 in November. We provided resources for Linear Scaling Divide

  3. Annual survival rates of breeding adult roseate terns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.

    1989-01-01

    Analyses of the capture-recapture data on 0 individual roseate terns (Sterna dougallii) trapped from 1978-1987 as breeding adults on nests on Falkner Island, Connecticut, estimate the average annual minimum adult survival rate to be 0.74-0.75. There was weak evidence of year-to-year variation in annual survival rates during the study period. The Jolly-Seber models used to estimate survival rates also generated estimates of population size and capture probabilities. To determine the relative importance of adult mortality and permanent emigration in contribuuting to the estimated annual loss of one-fourth of the breeding population will require further study of intercolony movemnet between all the major colony cities.

  4. On the annual maximum distribution in dependent partial duration series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosbjerg, D.

    1987-03-01

    As a basis for development of the annual maximum distribution the so-called partial duration series with Poissonian occurrence times and exponentially distributed peak exceedance values has been selected. The model is generalized by allowing for a Markov dependence between succeeding peak values. Correlation values from p=0 to p=1 can be accounted for by introducing the Marshall-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution, which is presented in detail. The developed distribution function for the annual maximum is throughly analysed and a variety of distribution forms depending on the value of the correlation coefficient and the intensity in the Poisson process is hereby recognized. To a certain extent this might be considered as parallel to the scattering of hydrological regions with different generating mechanisms for the annual maxima.

  5. 7 CFR 633.7 - Annual payments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... AGRICULTURE LONG TERM CONTRACTING WATER BANK PROGRAM § 633.7 Annual payments. (a) Person on the farm having an... the proposed division of payment is not fair and equitable. (b) The annual per acre payment rates for... rates. (e) Adjustment of annual rates. (1) The State Conservationist, in consultation with the...

  6. 22 CFR 62.15 - Annual reports.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Annual reports. 62.15 Section 62.15 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE PUBLIC DIPLOMACY AND EXCHANGES EXCHANGE VISITOR PROGRAM General Provisions § 62.15 Annual reports. Sponsors shall submit an annual report to the Department of State....

  7. 28 CFR 16.208 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Annual report. 16.208 Section 16.208 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE PRODUCTION OR DISCLOSURE OF MATERIAL OR INFORMATION Public Observation of Parole Commission Meetings § 16.208 Annual report. The Commission shall report annually...

  8. 28 CFR 16.208 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Annual report. 16.208 Section 16.208 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE PRODUCTION OR DISCLOSURE OF MATERIAL OR INFORMATION Public Observation of Parole Commission Meetings § 16.208 Annual report. The Commission shall report annually...

  9. 28 CFR 16.208 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Annual report. 16.208 Section 16.208 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE PRODUCTION OR DISCLOSURE OF MATERIAL OR INFORMATION Public Observation of Parole Commission Meetings § 16.208 Annual report. The Commission shall report annually...

  10. 28 CFR 16.208 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Annual report. 16.208 Section 16.208 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE PRODUCTION OR DISCLOSURE OF MATERIAL OR INFORMATION Public Observation of Parole Commission Meetings § 16.208 Annual report. The Commission shall report annually...

  11. 28 CFR 16.208 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Annual report. 16.208 Section 16.208 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE PRODUCTION OR DISCLOSURE OF MATERIAL OR INFORMATION Public Observation of Parole Commission Meetings § 16.208 Annual report. The Commission shall report annually...

  12. 45 CFR 1176.5 - Annual plan.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Annual plan. 1176.5 Section 1176.5 Public Welfare... ENDOWMENT FOR THE HUMANITIES PART-TIME CAREER EMPLOYMENT § 1176.5 Annual plan. (a) An agencywide plan for promoting part-time employment opportunities will be developed annually. This plan will establish...

  13. 24 CFR 5.609 - Annual income.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... for Needy Families (TANF) program are included in annual income only to the extent such payments: (A... Persons with Disabilities: Family Income and Family Payment; Occupancy Requirements for Section 8 Project-Based Assistance Family Income § 5.609 Annual income. (a) Annual income means all amounts, monetary...

  14. 24 CFR 5.609 - Annual income.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... for Needy Families (TANF) program are included in annual income only to the extent such payments: (A... Persons with Disabilities: Family Income and Family Payment; Occupancy Requirements for Section 8 Project-Based Assistance Family Income § 5.609 Annual income. (a) Annual income means all amounts, monetary...

  15. 24 CFR 5.609 - Annual income.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... for Needy Families (TANF) program are included in annual income only to the extent such payments: (A... Persons with Disabilities: Family Income and Family Payment; Occupancy Requirements for Section 8 Project-Based Assistance Family Income § 5.609 Annual income. (a) Annual income means all amounts, monetary...

  16. 24 CFR 5.609 - Annual income.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... for Needy Families (TANF) program are included in annual income only to the extent such payments: (A... Persons with Disabilities: Family Income and Family Payment; Occupancy Requirements for Section 8 Project-Based Assistance Family Income § 5.609 Annual income. (a) Annual income means all amounts, monetary...

  17. 24 CFR 5.609 - Annual income.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... for Needy Families (TANF) program are included in annual income only to the extent such payments: (A... Persons with Disabilities: Family Income and Family Payment; Occupancy Requirements for Section 8 Project-Based Assistance Family Income § 5.609 Annual income. (a) Annual income means all amounts, monetary...

  18. 45 CFR 2400.2 - Annual competition.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Annual competition. 2400.2 Section 2400.2 Public... FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM REQUIREMENTS General § 2400.2 Annual competition. To achieve its principal purposes, the Foundation holds an annual national competition to select teachers in grades 7-12, college seniors,...

  19. 45 CFR 2400.2 - Annual competition.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Annual competition. 2400.2 Section 2400.2 Public... FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM REQUIREMENTS General § 2400.2 Annual competition. To achieve its principal purposes, the Foundation holds an annual national competition to select teachers in grades 7-12, college seniors,...

  20. 45 CFR 2400.2 - Annual competition.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Annual competition. 2400.2 Section 2400.2 Public... FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM REQUIREMENTS General § 2400.2 Annual competition. To achieve its principal purposes, the Foundation holds an annual national competition to select teachers in grades 7-12, college seniors,...

  1. 45 CFR 2400.2 - Annual competition.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Annual competition. 2400.2 Section 2400.2 Public... FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM REQUIREMENTS General § 2400.2 Annual competition. To achieve its principal purposes, the Foundation holds an annual national competition to select teachers in grades 7-12, college seniors,...

  2. 45 CFR 2400.2 - Annual competition.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Annual competition. 2400.2 Section 2400.2 Public... FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM REQUIREMENTS General § 2400.2 Annual competition. To achieve its principal purposes, the Foundation holds an annual national competition to select teachers in grades 7-12, college seniors,...

  3. 76 FR 69239 - Annual Retail Trade Survey

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-08

    ... survey, the Census Bureau will collect data covering annual sales, annual e-commerce sales, year-end... receivables, and, for selected industries, merchandise line sales, and percent of e-commerce sales to..., annual e-commerce sales, purchases, total operating expenses, accounts receivables, and...

  4. 7 CFR 1980.347 - Annual income.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Annual income. 1980.347 Section 1980.347 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL HOUSING SERVICE, RURAL BUSINESS-COOPERATIVE... REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) GENERAL Rural Housing Loans § 1980.347 Annual income. Annual income...

  5. 7 CFR 1980.347 - Annual income.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Annual income. 1980.347 Section 1980.347 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL HOUSING SERVICE, RURAL BUSINESS-COOPERATIVE... REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) GENERAL Rural Housing Loans § 1980.347 Annual income. Annual income...

  6. 12 CFR 35.7 - Annual reports.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... entered into on or after May 12, 2000. (b) Annual report required. Each NGEP and each insured depository institution or affiliate that is a party to a covered agreement must file an annual report with each relevant... covered agreement. (c) Duration of reporting requirement—(1) NGEPs. A NGEP must file an annual report...

  7. 36 CFR 901.5 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Annual report. 901.5 Section 901.5 Parks, Forests, and Public Property PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION BYLAWS OF THE CORPORATION § 901.5 Annual report. The Executive Director shall prepare annually a comprehensive and...

  8. 12 CFR 207.7 - Annual reports.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... applies only to covered agreements entered into on or after May 12, 2000. (b) Annual report required. Each... file an annual report with each relevant supervisory agency concerning the disbursement, receipt, and...) NGEPs. A NGEP must file an annual report for a covered agreement for any fiscal year in which the...

  9. 36 CFR 901.5 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Annual report. 901.5 Section 901.5 Parks, Forests, and Public Property PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION BYLAWS OF THE CORPORATION § 901.5 Annual report. The Executive Director shall prepare annually a comprehensive and...

  10. 12 CFR 533.7 - Annual reports.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... entered into on or after May 12, 2000. (b) Annual report required. Each NGEP and each insured depository institution or affiliate that is a party to a covered agreement must file an annual report with each relevant... covered agreement. (c) Duration of reporting requirement—(1) NGEPs. A NGEP must file an annual report...

  11. 42 CFR 419.50 - Annual review.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Annual review. 419.50 Section 419.50 Public Health....50 Annual review. (a) General rule. Not less often than annually, CMS reviews and updates groups... composed of an appropriate selection of representatives of providers to review (and advise CMS...

  12. 45 CFR 671.14 - Annual review.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Annual review. 671.14 Section 671.14 Public... Designation of Banned Substances; Reclassification of Pollutants § 671.14 Annual review. The Director shall review the list of banned substances and designated pollutants at least annually, and may propose...

  13. 45 CFR 671.14 - Annual review.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Annual review. 671.14 Section 671.14 Public... Designation of Banned Substances; Reclassification of Pollutants § 671.14 Annual review. The Director shall review the list of banned substances and designated pollutants at least annually, and may propose...

  14. 7 CFR 1773.3 - Annual audit.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Annual audit. 1773.3 Section 1773.3 Agriculture... (CONTINUED) POLICY ON AUDITS OF RUS BORROWERS RUS Audit Requirements § 1773.3 Annual audit. (a) Each borrower... RUS as set forth in § 1773.4. (b) Each borrower must establish an annual as of audit date...

  15. 7 CFR 1773.3 - Annual audit.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Annual audit. 1773.3 Section 1773.3 Agriculture... (CONTINUED) POLICY ON AUDITS OF RUS BORROWERS RUS Audit Requirements § 1773.3 Annual audit. (a) Each borrower... RUS as set forth in § 1773.4. (b) Each borrower must establish an annual as of audit date...

  16. Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

    2008-01-01

    1. Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood. 2. We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future. 3. Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5-12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Nin??o year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants. 4. Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect. 5. Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life

  17. Annual monsoon rains recorded by Jurassic dunes.

    PubMed

    Loope, D B; Rowe, C M; Joeckel, R M

    2001-07-01

    Pangaea, the largest landmass in the Earth's history, was nearly bisected by the Equator during the late Palaeozoic and early Mesozoic eras. Modelling experiments and stratigraphic studies have suggested that the supercontinent generated a monsoonal atmospheric circulation that led to extreme seasonality, but direct evidence for annual rainfall periodicity has been lacking. In the Mesozoic era, about 190 million years ago, thick deposits of wind-blown sand accumulated in dunes of a vast, low-latitude desert at Pangaea's western margin. These deposits are now situated in the southwestern USA. Here we analyse slump masses in the annual depositional cycles within these deposits, which have been described for some outcrops of the Navajo Sandstone. Twenty-four slumps, which were generated by heavy rainfall, appear within one interval representing 36 years of dune migration. We interpret the positions of 20 of these masses to indicate slumping during summer monsoon rains, with the other four having been the result of winter storms. The slumped lee faces of these Jurassic dunes therefore represent a prehistoric record of yearly rain events.

  18. A solar heating system with annual storage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazzari, F.; Raffellini, G.

    1981-07-01

    A solar heated house with long term storage capability, built in Trento, Italy, is described. The one story house was built from modular components and has a total heated volume of 1130 cu m. Flat plate solar collectors with a water-antifreeze medium are located beneath the lawn, and six cylindrical underground tanks holding 130 cu m of water heated by thermal energy from the collectors are situated under the garden. The house walls have an 8 cm cavity filled with 5 cm of formaldehyde foam, yielding a heat transmission (U) of 0.37 W/sq m/deg C. The roof and ceilings are insulated with fiberglass and concrete, producing U-values of 0.46 W/sq m/deg C and 0.57 W/sq m/deg C, respectively. Heat pumps using 6 kW move thermal energy between the house and the tanks. Direct hot water heating occurs in the summer, and direct home heating when the stored water temperature exceeds 32 C. A computer model was developed which traces the annual heat flow and it is shown that the system supplies all heating requirements for the house, with electrical requirements equal to 20 percent of the annual house needs.

  19. Annual report to Congress 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    Section 205 of the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 established the Energy Information Administration (EIA). One of the mandates in this legislation is that EIA prepare for Congress an annual report summarizing both activities and information collected and published. EIA`s major 1997 accomplishments are profiled in the body of this edition of the Annual Report to Congress. Appendix A contains abstracts of significant reports issued by EIA in 1997, and a chart of all titles and a list of all feature articles published during the year. Appendix B contains graphs of selected performance measures. Appendix C lists contact information for EIA subject matter specialists. Appendix D lists the major laws which form the basis of EIA`s legislative mandate.

  20. Annual report to Congress, 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1999-04-01

    Section 205 of the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 established the Energy Information Administration (EIA). One of the mandates in this legislation is that EIA prepare for Congress an annual report summarizing both activities and information collected and published. EIA`s major 1998 accomplishments are profiled in the body of this edition of the Annual Report to Congress. Appendix A contains abstracts of significant reports issued by EIA in 1998 and a chart of all titles and a list of all feature articles published during the year. Appendix B contains graphs of selected performance measures. Appendix C lists contact information for EIA subject matter specialists. Appendix D lists the major laws which form the basis of EIA`s legislative mandate.

  1. Secretary's annual report to Congress

    SciTech Connect

    1980-01-01

    This second annual report of the DOE covers activities of all elements of the department except the independent FERC, which issues its own annual report. Individual chapters concern a posture statement, conservation, solar and other renewable energy, fossil energy, electric energy, nuclear energy, the environment, defense programs, international programs, general science programs, energy information, economic regulation, energy production, and support operations. The following appendixes are also included: foreign direct investments in US energy sources and supplies, exports of energy resources by foreign companies, major recipients of DOE funding, actions taken regarding disclosure of energy assets by DOE employees, financial assistance programs for alternative fuel demonstration facilities, and 1978 budget summary. 16 figures, 56 tables. (RWR)

  2. Groundwater Annual Status Report for Fiscal Year 1998

    SciTech Connect

    A. K. Stoker; A. S. Johnson; B. D. Newman; B. M. Gallaher; C. L. Nylander; D. B. Rogers; D. E. Broxton; D. Katzman; E. H. Keating; G. L. Cole; K. A. Bitner; K. I. Mullen; P. Longmire; S. G. McLin; W. J. Stone

    1999-04-01

    Groundwater protection activities and hydrogeologic characterization studies are conducted at LANL annually. A summary of fiscal year 1998 results and findings shows increased understanding of the hydrogeologic environment beneath the Pajarito Plateau and significant refinement to elements of the LANL Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model pertaining to areas and sources of recharge to the regional aquifer. Modeling, drilling, monitoring, and data collection activities are proposed for fiscal year 1999.

  3. Groundwater Annual Status Report for Fiscal Year 1999

    SciTech Connect

    C. L. Nylander; K. A. Bitner; K. Henning; A. S. Johnson; E. H. Keating; P. Longmire; B. D. Newman; B. Robinson; D. B. Rogers; W. J. Stone; D. Vaniman

    2000-03-01

    Groundwater protection activities and hydrogeologic characterization studies are conducted at Los Alamos National Laboratory annually. A summary of fiscal year 1999 results and findings shows increased understanding of the hydrogeologic environment beneath the Pajarito Plateau and significant refinement to elements of the LANL. Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model pertaining to areas and sources of recharge to the regional aquifer. Modeling, drilling, monitoring, and data collection activities are proposed for fiscal year 2000.

  4. CAES Annual Report FY 2011

    SciTech Connect

    Kortny Rolston

    2011-10-01

    The Center for Advanced Energy Studies was created to lead research programs important to the nation, attract students and faculty to the Idaho universities and act as a catalyst for technology-based economic development. CAES is striving to meet those goals by continuing to develop its infrastructure and equipment capabilities, expand its research portfolio and bolster Idaho's energy workforce. This Annual Report details the progress CAES made in FY 2011 toward fulfilling its research, education and economic development missions.

  5. USAYPT Holds Annual February Tournament

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oldaker, Bruce

    2011-09-01

    The United States Association for Young Physicists Tournaments (USAYPT) held its annual U.S. Invitational Young Physicists Tournament Feb. 4-5, 2011, at Oak Ridge Associated Universities Institute for Science Education, Oak Ridge, TN. Young physicists tournaments are theoretical and experimental research-based team competitions described more fully at the USAYPT website: www.usaypt.org. This year the problems were #1: Domino Wave, #2: Salt-Water Oscillator, #3: Magic Motor, and #4: Boiling Water.

  6. Effects of rainfall seasonality and soil moisture capacity on mean annual water balance for Australian catchments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Potter, N.J.; Zhang, L.; Milly, P.C.D.; McMahon, T.A.; Jakeman, A.J.

    2005-01-01

    An important factor controlling catchment-scale water balance is the seasonal variation of climate. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the seasonal distributions of water and energy, and their interactions with the soil moisture store, on mean annual water balance in Australia at catchment scales using a stochastic model of soil moisture balance with seasonally varying forcing. The rainfall regime at 262 catchments around Australia was modeled as a Poisson process with the mean storm arrival rate and the mean storm depth varying throughout the year as cosine curves with annual periods. The soil moisture dynamics were represented by use of a single, finite water store having infinite infiltration capacity, and the potential evapotranspiration rate was modeled as an annual cosine curve. The mean annual water budget was calculated numerically using a Monte Carlo simulation. The model predicted that for a given level of climatic aridity the ratio of mean annual evapotranspiration to rainfall was larger where the potential evapotranspiration and rainfall were in phase, that is, in summer-dominant rainfall catchments, than where they were out of phase. The observed mean annual evapotranspiration ratios have opposite results. As a result, estimates of mean annual evapotranspiration from the model compared poorly with observational data. Because the inclusion of seasonally varying forcing alone was not sufficient to explain variability in the mean annual water balance, other catchment properties may play a role. Further analysis showed that the water balance was highly sensitive to the catchment-scale soil moisture capacity. Calibrations of this parameter indicated that infiltration-excess runoff might be an important process, especially for the summer-dominant rainfall catchments; most similar studies have shown that modeling of infiltration-excess runoff is not required at the mean annual timescale. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. Impact of Unconventional Gas Technology in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000

    EIA Publications

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology used in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to represent unconventional gas technologies and their impacts on projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000).

  8. Measuring Changes in Energy Efficiency for the Annual Energy Outlook 2002

    EIA Publications

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology used to develop the National Energy Modeling System estimate of projected aggregate energy efficiency and to describe the results of applying it to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) reference case.

  9. Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook

    EIA Publications

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents average values of levelized costs for generating technologies entering service in 2018, 2022, and 2040 as represented in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) Reference case.

  10. FY2013 Vehicle and Systems Simulation and Testing R&D Annual Progress Report

    SciTech Connect

    none,

    2014-02-01

    FY 2013 annual report focuses on the following areas: vehicle modeling and simulation, component and systems evaluations, laboratory and field evaluations, codes and standards, industry projects, and vehicle systems optimization.

  11. ADMET--Fifth Annual SMi Conference.

    PubMed

    Comer, John E

    2010-09-01

    SMi's fifth annual ADMET Conference, held in London, included topics covering new developments in the field of ADMET. This conference report highlights selected presentations on ADME optimization in drug discovery; targeting drugs to the brain; predicting bonds that might be attacked during metabolism; treating Caco-2 membranes with vinblastine to enhance P-glycoprotein interactions; predictive ADMET in hit-to-lead optimization; structure-based studies of ADMET targets; an accelerated process for integrated drug development; building hypotheses in lead selection and optimization; supersaturation effects; the prediction of drug-drug interactions; developing a mechanism-based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model; drug transporter assays in drug discovery; time-dependent inhibition screens in early drug discovery; the system-dependent inhibition of CYP enzymes; the integrating predictive toxicology framework OpenTox; high-content analysis for predictive cytotoxicity testing; and emerging in vitro toxicity assays.

  12. The topographic distribution of annual incoming solar radiation in the Rio Grande River basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dubayah, R.; Van Katwijk, V.

    1992-01-01

    We model the annual incoming solar radiation topoclimatology for the Rio Grande River basin in Colorado, U.S.A. Hourly pyranometer measurements are combined with satellite reflectance data and 30-m digital elevation models within a topographic solar radiation algorithm. Our results show that there is large spatial variability within the basin, even at an annual integration length, but the annual, basin-wide mean is close to that measured by the pyranometers. The variance within 16 sq km and 100 sq km regions is a linear function of the average slope in the region, suggesting a possible parameterization for sub-grid-cell variability.

  13. Annual flow duration curves assessment in ephemeral small basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pumo, D.; Viola, F.; La Loggia, G.; Noto, L. V.

    2014-11-01

    Flow duration curve (FDC) represents a comprehensive signature of temporal runoff variability often used to synthesize catchment rainfall-runoff responses. A new model, the ModABa (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in ephemeral small BAsins), is here introduced. It can be thought as a wide mosaic whose tesserae are frameworks, models or conceptual schemes separately developed in different studies and harmoniously interconnected with the final aim of reproducing the annual FDC in intermittent small catchments. Two separated seasons within the hydrological year are distinguished: a dry season, characterized by absence of streamflow, and a non-zero season. Streamflow is disaggregated into a subsurface component and a surface component that, in turn, is considered formed by two different contributions: impervious runoff and surface runoff from permeable areas induced by heavy rains. The FDCs of the two streamflow components are first separately and differently computed, and then combined to obtain the non-zero FDC. This last, together with the estimated probability of null streamflow, allows the annual FDC assessment through the theory of total probability. The ModABa is here tested on a small Italian catchment and the results show how the model, once calibrated, is able to accurately reproduce the empirical FDC for the analyzed case, starting from easily derivable parameters and commonly available climatic data. In this sense, the model reveals itself as a valid tool, potentially suitable for predictions at ungauged basins in a regionalization framework.

  14. Earth and Environmental Sciences 1999 Annual Report Meeting National Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Yonker, L.; Dannevik, B.

    2000-07-21

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Earth and Environmental Sciences 1999 Annual Report covers the following topics: (1) Nuclear Materials--Modeling Thermohydrologic Processes at the Proposed Yucca Mountain Nuclear-Waste Repository; Dose Assessments and Resettlement Support on Rongelap Atoll in the Marshall Islands. (2) Climate, Carbon, and Energy--Incorporating Surprise into Models of Global Climate Change: A Simple Climate Demonstrator Model; (3) Environmental Risk Reduction--The NASA Global Modeling Initiative: Analyzing the Atmospheric Impacts of Supersonic Aircraft; (4) National Security--Atmospheric Release Assessment Programs; and (5) Cross-Cutting Technologies/Capabilities--Advances in Technology at the Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry; Experimental Geophysics: Investigating Material Properties at Extreme Conditions.

  15. Climate change impact on the annual water balance in the northwest Florida coastal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alizad, K.; Wang, D.; Alimohammadi, N.; Hagen, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    As the largest tributary to the Apalachicola River, the Chipola River originates in southern Alabama, flows through Florida Panhandle and ended to Gulf of Mexico. The Chipola watershed is located in an intermediate climate environment with aridity index around one. Watershed provides habitat for a number of threatened and endangered animal and plant species. However, climate change affects hydrologic cycle of Chipola River watershed at various temporal and spatial scales. Studying the effects of climate variations is of great importance for water and environmental management purposes in this catchment. This research is mainly focuses on assessing climate change impact on the partitioning pattern of rainfall from mean annual to inter-annual and to seasonal scales. At the mean annual scale, rainfall is partitioned into runoff and evaporation assuming negligible water storage changes. Mean annual runoff is controlled by both mean annual precipitation and potential evaporation. Changes in long term mean runoff caused by variations of long term mean precipitation and potential evaporation will be evaluated based on Budyko hypothesis. At the annual scale, rainfall is partitioned into runoff, evaporation, and storage change. Inter-annual variability of runoff and evaporation are mainly affected by the changes of mean annual climate variables as well as their inter-annual variability. In order to model and evaluate each component of water balance at the annual scale, parsimonious but reliable models, are developed. Budyko hypothesis on the existing balance between available water and energy supply is reconsidered and redefined for the sub-annual time scale and reconstructed accordingly in order to accurately model seasonal hydrologic balance of the catchment. Models are built in the seasonal time frame with a focus on the role of storage change in water cycle. Then for Chipola catchment, models are parameterized based on a sufficient time span of historical data and the

  16. Proceedings of NHA Annual Conferences

    SciTech Connect

    Debbi L. Smith

    2004-06-30

    The Proceedings of "Hydrogen: A Clean Energy Choice" and the 16th Annual U.S. Hydrogen Conference, "Partnering for the Global Hydrogen Future" include the presentations of high-level keynote speakers from the U.S. Department of Energy, the state government of California, Ambassadors and Executives of large corporations and emerging companies all presenting their vision on a future fueled by hydrogen. Parallel technical sessions informed attendees of developments in hydrogen technology R&D, commercial product development and market readiness. Persentations of the Student Design Competition Finalists are also included.

  17. Laser Program annual report 1984

    SciTech Connect

    Rufer, M.L.; Murphy, P.W.

    1985-06-01

    The Laser Program Annual Report is part of the continuing series of reports documenting the progress of the unclassified Laser Fusion Program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). As in previous years, the report is organized programmatically. The first section is an overview of the basic goals and directions of the LLNL Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) Program, and highlights the year's important accomplishments. Sections 2 through 7 provide the detailed information on the various program elements: Laser Systems and Operations, Target Design, Target Fabrication, Laser Experiments and Advanced Diagnostics, Advanced Laser Development, and Applications of Inertial Confinement Fusion. Individual sections will be indexed separately. 589 refs., 333 figs., 25 tabs.

  18. Presentation at Innoventure Annual Competition

    SciTech Connect

    2010-03-31

    This report documents the components of the workshop presented at the recent annual competition for the Innoventure program. The goal of the workshop was to focus on the delivery of science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) concepts in a hands-on experiential learning format to increase interest in national security careers at NNSA, most of which are in the STEM fields. This work is a part of the National Security Preparedness Project (NSPP), being performed under a Department of Energy (DOE)/National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) grant.

  19. LLNL NESHAPs 1995 annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, G.M.; Harrach, R.J.; Biermann, A.H.; Tate, P.J.

    1996-06-01

    This annual report is prepared pursuant to the National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) 40 CFR Part 61, Subpart H; Subpart H governs radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air from DOE facilities to levels resulting in an effective dose equivalent (EDE) of 10 mrem to any member of the public. This document contains the EDEs for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) site-wide maximally exposed members of the public from 1995 operations.

  20. 2011 ANNUAL SITE ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, A.; Eddy, T.; Jannik, T.; Terry, B.; Cauthen, K.; Coward, L.; Dunaway-Ackerman, J.; Wilson, M.; Hutchison, J.; O'Quinn, S.

    2012-10-01

    The Savannah River Site Environmental Report for 2011 (SRNS-STI-2012-00200) is prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) according to requirements of DOE Order 231.1 B, “Environment, Safety and Health Reporting." The annual SRS Environmental Report has been produced for more than 50 years. Several hundred copies are and interested individuals. The report’s purpose is to: present summary environmental data that characterize site environmental management performance; describe compliance status with respect to environmental standards and requirements; highlight significant programs and efforts.

  1. Climate, interseasonal storage of soil water, and the annual water balance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Milly, P.C.D.

    1994-01-01

    The effects of annual totals and seasonal variations of precipitation and potential evaporation on the annual water balance are explored. It is assumed that the only other factor of significance to annual water balance is a simple process of water storage, and that the relevant storage capacity is the plant-available water-holding capacity of the soil. Under the assumption that precipitation and potential evaporation vary sinusoidally through the year, it is possible to derive an analytic solution of the storage problem, and this yields an expression for the fraction of precipitation that evaporates (and the fraction that runs off) as a function of three dimensionless numbers: the ratio of annual potential evaporation to annual precipitation (index of dryness); an index of the seasonality of the difference between precipitation and potential evaporation; and the ratio of plant-available water-holding capacity to annual precipitation. The solution is applied to the area of the United States east of 105??W, using published information on precipitation, potential evaporation, and plant-available water-holding capacity as inputs, and using an independent analysis of observed river runoff for model evaluation. The model generates an areal mean annual runoff of only 187 mm, which is about 30% less than the observed runoff (263 mm). The discrepancy is suggestive of the importance of runoff-generating mechanisms neglected in the model. These include intraseasonal variability (storminess) of precipitation, spatial variability of storage capacity, and finite infiltration capacity of land. ?? 1994.

  2. An Annual Plant Growth Proxy in the Mojave Desert Using MODIS-EVI Data

    PubMed Central

    Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Thomas, Kathryn A.

    2008-01-01

    In the arid Mojave Desert, the phenological response of vegetation is largely dependent upon the timing and amount of rainfall, and maps of annual plant cover at any one point in time can vary widely. Our study developed relative annual plant growth models as proxies for annual plant cover using metrics that captured phenological variability in Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) satellite images. We used landscape phenologies revealed in MODIS data together with ecological knowledge of annual plant seasonality to develop a suite of metrics to describe annual growth on a yearly basis. Each of these metrics was applied to temporally-composited MODIS-EVI images to develop a relative model of annual growth. Each model was evaluated by testing how well it predicted field estimates of annual cover collected during 2003 and 2005 at the Mojave National Preserve. The best performing metric was the spring difference metric, which compared the average of three spring MODIS-EVI composites of a given year to that of 2002, a year of record drought. The spring difference metric showed correlations with annual plant cover of R2 = 0.61 for 2005 and R2 = 0.47 for 2003. Although the correlation is moderate, we consider it supportive given the characteristics of the field data, which were collected for a different study in a localized area and are not ideal for calibration to MODIS pixels. A proxy for annual growth potential was developed from the spring difference metric of 2005 for use as an environmental data layer in desert tortoise habitat modeling. The application of the spring difference metric to other imagery years presents potential for other applications such as fuels, invasive species, and dust-emission monitoring in the Mojave Desert.

  3. An annual plant growth proxy in the Mojave Desert using MODIS-EVI data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wallace, C.S.A.; Thomas, K.A.

    2008-01-01

    In the arid Mojave Desert, the phenological response of vegetation is largely dependent upon the timing and amount of rainfall, and maps of annual plant cover at any one point in time can vary widely. Our study developed relative annual plant growth models as proxies for annual plant cover using metrics that captured phenological variability in Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) satellite images. We used landscape phenologies revealed in MODIS data together with ecological knowledge of annual plant seasonality to develop a suite of metrics to describe annual growth on a yearly basis. Each of these metrics was applied to temporally-composited MODIS-EVI images to develop a relative model of annual growth. Each model was evaluated by testing how well it predicted field estimates of annual cover collected during 2003 and 2005 at the Mojave National Preserve. The best performing metric was the spring difference metric, which compared the average of three spring MODIS-EVI composites of a given year to that of 2002, a year of record drought. The spring difference metric showed correlations with annual plant cover of R2 = 0.61 for 2005 and R 2 = 0.47 for 2003. Although the correlation is moderate, we consider it supportive given the characteristics of the field data, which were collected for a different study in a localized area and are not ideal for calibration to MODIS pixels. A proxy for annual growth potential was developed from the spring difference metric of 2005 for use as an environmental data layer in desert tortoise habitat modeling. The application of the spring difference metric to other imagery years presents potential for other applications such as fuels, invasive species, and dust-emission monitoring in the Mojave Desert.

  4. The effect of band loss on estimates of annual survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nelson, Louis J.; Anderson, David R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.

    1980-01-01

    Banding has proven to be a useful technique in the study of population dynamics of avian species. However, band loss has long been recognized as a potential problem, (Hickey, 1952; Ludwig, 1967). Recently, Brownie et al. (1978) presented 14 models based on an array of explicit assumptions for the analysis of band recovery data. Various estimation models (assumption sets) allowed survival and/or recovery rates to be (a) constant, (b) time-specific, or (c) time- and age-specific. Optimal inference methods were employed and statistical tests of critical assumptions were developed and emphasized. The methods of Brownie et al. (1978), as with all previously published methods of which we are aware, assume no loss of bands during the study. However, some band loss is certain to occur and this potentially biases the estimates of annual survival rates whatever the analysis method. A few empirical studies have estimated band loss rates (a notable exception is Ludwig, 1967); consequently, for almost all band recovery data, the exact rate of band loss is unknown. In this paper we investigate the bias in estimates of annual survival rates due to varying degrees of hypothesized band loss. Our main results are based on perhaps the most useful model, originally developed by Seber (1970), for estimation of annual survival rate. Inferences are made concerning the bias of estimated survival rates in other models because the structure of these estimators is similar.

  5. 2006 Annual Merit Review & Peer Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-18

    Each year hydrogen and fuel cell projects funded by DOE's Hydrogen Program are reviewed for their merit during an Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting. The 2006 Annual Merit Review, held May 16-19, 2006 in Arlington, Va., showcased approximately 250 projects. Principal investigators presented their project status and results in oral and poster presentations, which are available in the 2006 Annual Merit Review Proceedings. A panel of more than 150 community experts peer reviewed two-t

  6. Flood frequency analyses with annual and partial flood series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bezak, N.; Brilly, M.; Sraj, M.

    2012-04-01

    . Results were then compared with those from partial duration series. Poisson distribution, binomial distribution and negative binomial distribution were used to describe annual number of exceedances and exponential distribution was used to model the magnitude of exceedances. The method of annual series is mostly used in flood frequency analyses in Slovenia because of its simplicity. Main advantages of partial duration series were shown on practical example. Distributions for modeling annual number of peaks over threshold were also compared. Influence of threshold value on analyses results for the partial duration series was also explored. Many suggestions for the choice of the threshold were found in literature. Differences in design flood with various threshold values were analysed. Program Hydrospect was used to determine peaks over threshold data for as many different thresholds as possible.

  7. Halo-independent tests of dark matter annual modulation signals

    SciTech Connect

    Herrero-Garcia, Juan

    2015-09-02

    New halo-independent lower bounds on the product of the dark matter-nucleon scattering cross section and the local dark matter density that are valid for annual modulations of dark matter direct detection signals are derived. They are obtained by making use of halo-independent bounds based on an expansion of the rate on the Earth’s velocity that were derived in previous works. In combination with astrophysical measurements of the local energy density, an observed annual modulation implies a lower bound on the cross section that is independent of the velocity distribution and that must be fulfilled by any particle physics model. In order to illustrate the power of the bounds we apply them to DAMA/LIBRA data and obtain quite strong results when compared to the standard halo model predictions. We also extend the bounds to the case of multi-target detectors.

  8. Evolution dynamics of tropical ocean-atmosphere annual cycle variability

    SciTech Connect

    Nigam, S.; Chao, Y.

    1996-12-01

    The structure of ocean-atmosphere annual cycle variability is extracted from the revised Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set SSTs, surface winds, and the latent heat (LH) and net shortwave (SW) surface fluxes using the covariance-based rotated principal component analysis method. The coupled annual cycle variability is concisely described using two modes that are in temporal quadrature. The first, peaking in June/July (and December/January), represents monsoonal flow onto Indochina, Central America, and western Africa. The second mode peaks in September/October and March/April when it represents the extreme phases of the SST annual cycle in the eastern oceans. Analysis of the surface momentum balance in the Pacific cold tongue core shows the equatorial flow, and in particular the zonal wind, to be dynamically consistent with the SST gradient during both the cold tongue`s nascent (June/July) and mature (September/October) phases; the dynamical consistency improves when the impact of nearsurface static stability variation on horizontal momentum dissipation is also considered. Evolution structure of the extracted annual cycle, moreover, shows the easterly wind tendency to lead SST cooling in the off-coastal zone. Taken together, these findings suggest that the Pacific cold tongue westward expansion results from local interaction of the zonal wind and zonal SST gradient, as encapsulated in the proposed {open_quotes}westward expansion hypothesis{close_quotes} - a simple analytic model of which is also presented. 29 refs., 10 figs.

  9. Annual Coded Wire Program Missing Production Groups, 1996 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Pastor, S.M.

    1997-07-01

    In 1989 the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) began funding the evaluation of production groups of juvenile anadromous fish not being coded-wire tagged for other programs. These groups were the ``Missing Production Groups``. Production fish released by the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) without representative coded-wire tags during the 1980`s are indicated as blank spaces on the survival graphs in this report. The objectives of the ``Missing Production Groups`` program are: to estimate the total survival of each production group, to estimate the contribution of each production group to various fisheries, and to prepare an annual report for all USFWS hatcheries in the Columbia River basin. Coded-wire tag recovery information will be used to evaluate the relative success of individual brood stocks. This information can also be used by salmon harvest managers to develop plans to allow the harvest of excess hatchery fish while protecting threatened, endangered, or other stocks of concern.

  10. The Sixth Annual Thermal and Fluids Analysis Workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    The Sixth Annual Thermal and Fluids Analysis Workshop consisted of classes, vendor demonstrations, and paper sessions. The classes and vendor demonstrations provided participants with the information on widely used tools for thermal and fluids analysis. The paper sessions provided a forum for the exchange of information and ideas among thermal and fluids analysis. Paper topics included advances an uses of established thermal and fluids computer codes (such as SINDA and TRASYS) as well as unique modeling techniques and applications.

  11. Stanford Geothermal Program, reservoir and injection technology. Fourth annual report

    SciTech Connect

    Horne, R.; Ramey, H.J. Jr.; Miller, F.G.; Brigham, W.E.; Kruger, P.

    1988-12-01

    This annual report of the Stanford Geothermal Program presents major projects in reservoir and injection technology. The four include: (1) an application of the boundary element method to front tracking and pressure transient testing; (2) determination of fracture aperture, a multi-tracer approach; (3) an analysis of tracer and thermal transients during reinjection; and, (4) pressure transient modeling of a non-uniformly fractured reservoir. (BN)

  12. Annual Report, 1998-99 [and] Annual Plan, 1999-2000.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Southeast Community Coll., Cumberland, KY.

    This compilation of reports from Southeast Community College in Kentucky includes the 1998-99 Annual Report, the 1997-98 Enrollment Report, the 1999-2000 Annual Plan, and Action Strategies for 1999-2000. Sections include: (1) Message from the president (cover letter, mission statement, and vision statement); (2) Annual report 1998-1999 (brief…

  13. Laser program annual report 1983

    SciTech Connect

    Hendricks, C.D.; Rufer, M.L.; Murphy, P.W.

    1984-06-01

    In the 1983 Laser Program Annual Report we present the accomplishments and unclassified activities of the Laser Program at Lawrence Livermore National laboratory (LLNL) for the year 1983. It should be noted that the report, of necessity, is a summary, and more detailed expositions of the research can be found in the many publications and reports authored by staff members in the Laser Program. The purpose of this report is to present our work in a brief form, but with sufficient depth to provide an overview of the analytical and experimental aspects of the LLNL Inertial-Confinement Fusion (ICF) Program. The format of this report is basically the same as that of previous years. Section 1 is an overview and highlights the important accomplishments and directions of the Program. Sections 2 through 7 provide the detailed information on the various major parts of the Program: Laser Systems and Operations, Target Design, Target Fabrication, Fusion Experiments, Laser Research and Development, and Energy Applications.

  14. LLNL NESHAPs 2014 Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, K.; Bertoldo, N.; Gallegos, G.; MacQueen, D.; Wegrecki, A.

    2015-07-01

    Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC operates facilities at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) where radionuclides are handled and stored. These facilities are subject to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) in Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Title 40, Part 61, Subpart H, which regulates radionuclide emissions to air from Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. Specifically, NESHAPs limits the emission of radionuclides to the ambient air to levels resulting in an annual effective dose equivalent of 10 mrem (100 μSv) to any member of the public. Using measured and calculated emissions, and building-specific and common parameters, LLNL personnel applied the EPA-approved computer code, CAP88-PC, Version 4.0.1.17, to calculate the dose to the maximally exposed individual member of the public for the Livermore Site and Site 300.

  15. Annual report to Congress, 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-03-31

    Created by Congress in 1977 as an independent entity within the Department of Energy, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the principal and authoritative source of comprehensive energy data for the Congress, the Federal Government, the States, and the public. With the mandate to ``collect, assemble, evaluate, analyze, and disseminate data and information,`` EIA`s mission has been defined to: maintain a comprehensive data and information program relevant to energy resources and reserves, energy production, energy demand, energy technologies, and related financial and statistical information relevant to the adequacy of energy resources to meet the Nation`s demands in the near and longer term future. Develop and maintain analytical tool and collection and processing systems; provide analyses that are accurate, timely, and objective; and provide information dissemination services. This annual report summarizes EIA`s activities and accomplishments in 1993.

  16. Annual performance prediction for off-axis aligned Lugo heliostats at Solar Two

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, S.A.

    1996-02-01

    The DELSOL computer code was used to model the annual Performance for numerous off-axis alignments of the Lugo heliostats located at the Solar Two site in Dagget, California. Recommended canting times are presented for the Lugo heliostats based upon their location in the field. Predicted annual performance of an off-axis alignment was actually higher than for on-axis alignment in some cases, and approximately equal if the recommended times are used. The annual performances of Solar One heliostats located nearby were also calculated, and illustrated the poorer performance expected of the Lugo heliostats.

  17. FY 1996 annual work plan

    SciTech Connect

    1995-09-30

    In April 1994, the Department of Energy (DOE) Strategic Plan was issued. This Plan presents the Department`s strategic outlook in response to a changing world. It discusses the Department`s unique capabilities; its mission, vision, and core values; and key customer and stakeholder considerations. The DOE Strategic Plan lists business strategies and critical success factors which are intended to aid the Department in accomplishing its mission and reaching its vision of itself in the future. The Office of Inspector General (OIG) has an important role in carrying out the goals and objectives of the Secretary`s Strategic Plan. The ultimate goal of the OIG is to facilitate positive change by assisting its customers, responsible Government officials, in taking actions to improve programs and operations. The Inspector General annually issues his own Strategic Plan that contains program guidance for the next fiscal year. As part of its responsibility in carrying out the OIG mission, the Office of the Deputy Inspector General for Audit Services (Office of Audit Services) publishes an Annual Work Plan that sets forth audits that are planned for the next fiscal year. Selection of these audits is based on the overall budget of the Department, analyses of trends in Departmental operations, guidance contained in the agency`s strategic plans, statutory requirements, and the expressed needs and audit suggestions of Departmental program managers and OIG managers and staff. This work plan includes audits that are carried over from FY 1995 and audits scheduled to start during FY 1996. Audits included in the plan will be performed by OIG staff.

  18. 45 CFR 1801.11 - Annual nomination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Annual nomination. 1801.11 Section 1801.11 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP FOUNDATION HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM Nominations § 1801.11 Annual nomination. (a) Except as provided in §§...

  19. 45 CFR 1801.11 - Annual nomination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Annual nomination. 1801.11 Section 1801.11 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP FOUNDATION HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM Nominations § 1801.11 Annual nomination. (a) Except as provided in §§...

  20. 45 CFR 1801.54 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP FOUNDATION HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM Payment Conditions and Procedures § 1801.54 Annual report. (a) Scholars with remaining eligibility for scholarship stipends must submit no later than July 15 an annual report to...

  1. 45 CFR 1801.11 - Annual nomination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Annual nomination. 1801.11 Section 1801.11 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP FOUNDATION HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM Nominations § 1801.11 Annual nomination. (a) Except as provided in §§...

  2. 45 CFR 1801.54 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP FOUNDATION HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM Payment Conditions and Procedures § 1801.54 Annual report. (a) Scholars with remaining eligibility for scholarship stipends must submit no later than July 15 an annual report to...

  3. 45 CFR 1801.11 - Annual nomination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Annual nomination. 1801.11 Section 1801.11 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP FOUNDATION HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM Nominations § 1801.11 Annual nomination. (a) Except as provided in §§...

  4. 45 CFR 1801.11 - Annual nomination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Annual nomination. 1801.11 Section 1801.11 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP FOUNDATION HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM Nominations § 1801.11 Annual nomination. (a) Except as provided in §§...

  5. 45 CFR 1801.54 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP FOUNDATION HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM Payment Conditions and Procedures § 1801.54 Annual report. (a) Scholars with remaining eligibility for scholarship stipends must submit no later than July 15 an annual report to...

  6. 45 CFR 1801.54 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP FOUNDATION HARRY S. TRUMAN SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM Payment Conditions and Procedures § 1801.54 Annual report. (a) Scholars with remaining eligibility for scholarship stipends must submit no later than July 15 an annual report to...

  7. 7 CFR 633.7 - Annual payments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Annual payments. 633.7 Section 633.7 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LONG TERM CONTRACTING WATER BANK PROGRAM § 633.7 Annual payments. (a) Person on the farm having an interest in the...

  8. 15 CFR 9.11 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Annual report. 9.11 Section 9.11 Commerce and Foreign Trade Office of the Secretary of Commerce PROCEDURES FOR A VOLUNTARY LABELING PROGRAM FOR HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EQUIPMENT TO EFFECT ENERGY CONSERVATION § 9.11 Annual report....

  9. 15 CFR 9.11 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Annual report. 9.11 Section 9.11 Commerce and Foreign Trade Office of the Secretary of Commerce PROCEDURES FOR A VOLUNTARY LABELING PROGRAM FOR HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EQUIPMENT TO EFFECT ENERGY CONSERVATION § 9.11 Annual report....

  10. 15 CFR 9.11 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Annual report. 9.11 Section 9.11 Commerce and Foreign Trade Office of the Secretary of Commerce PROCEDURES FOR A VOLUNTARY LABELING PROGRAM FOR HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EQUIPMENT TO EFFECT ENERGY CONSERVATION § 9.11 Annual report....

  11. 15 CFR 9.11 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Annual report. 9.11 Section 9.11 Commerce and Foreign Trade Office of the Secretary of Commerce PROCEDURES FOR A VOLUNTARY LABELING PROGRAM FOR HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EQUIPMENT TO EFFECT ENERGY CONSERVATION § 9.11 Annual report....

  12. 15 CFR 9.11 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Annual report. 9.11 Section 9.11 Commerce and Foreign Trade Office of the Secretary of Commerce PROCEDURES FOR A VOLUNTARY LABELING PROGRAM FOR HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EQUIPMENT TO EFFECT ENERGY CONSERVATION § 9.11 Annual report....

  13. 12 CFR 1206.3 - Annual assessments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... House Price Index (HPI) and the conforming loan limit; (13) Amounts deemed necessary by the Director to... ratio to the total portion of the annual assessment allocated to the Enterprises that the total exposure... of the annual assessments based on the ratio between its minimum required regulatory capital and...

  14. 12 CFR 1206.3 - Annual assessments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... House Price Index (HPI) and the conforming loan limit; (13) Amounts deemed necessary by the Director to... ratio to the total portion of the annual assessment allocated to the Enterprises that the total exposure... of the annual assessments based on the ratio between its minimum required regulatory capital and...

  15. 12 CFR 1206.3 - Annual assessments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... House Price Index (HPI) and the conforming loan limit; (13) Amounts deemed necessary by the Director to... ratio to the total portion of the annual assessment allocated to the Enterprises that the total exposure... of the annual assessments based on the ratio between its minimum required regulatory capital and...

  16. 12 CFR 1206.3 - Annual assessments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... House Price Index (HPI) and the conforming loan limit; (13) Amounts deemed necessary by the Director to... ratio to the total portion of the annual assessment allocated to the Enterprises that the total exposure... of the annual assessments based on the ratio between its minimum required regulatory capital and...

  17. The Annual Condition of Education Report, 2010

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iowa Department of Education, 2010

    2010-01-01

    For 21 years the Annual Condition of Education Report has helped the Iowa Department of Education meet its goal, providing valuable information on everything from enrollment to student performance, from the teachers to finances to the demographics. The data for this annual report are presented according to: (1) Background Demographics; (2)…

  18. 25 CFR 135.3 - Annual assessments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Annual assessments. 135.3 Section 135.3 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES CONSTRUCTION ASSESSMENTS, CROW INDIAN IRRIGATION PROJECT Charges Assessed Against Irrigation District Lands § 135.3 Annual assessments. Notice...

  19. 25 CFR 135.3 - Annual assessments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Annual assessments. 135.3 Section 135.3 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES CONSTRUCTION ASSESSMENTS, CROW INDIAN IRRIGATION PROJECT Charges Assessed Against Irrigation District Lands § 135.3 Annual assessments. Notice...

  20. 38 CFR 53.31 - Annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Annual report. 53.31 Section 53.31 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) PAYMENTS... Annual report. (a) A State receiving payment under this part shall provide to VA a report setting...