Optimization of the time series NDVI-rainfall relationship using linear mixed-effects modeling for the anti-desertification area in the Beijing and Tianjin sandstorm source region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jin; Sun, Tao; Fu, Anmin; Xu, Hao; Wang, Xinjie

2018-05-01

Degradation in drylands is a critically important global issue that threatens ecosystem and environmental in many ways. Researchers have tried to use remote sensing data and meteorological data to perform residual trend analysis and identify human-induced vegetation changes. However, complex interactions between vegetation and climate, soil units and topography have not yet been considered. Data used in the study included annual accumulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 2002 to 2013, accumulated rainfall from September to August, digital elevation model (DEM) and soil units. This paper presents linear mixed-effect (LME) modeling methods for the NDVI-rainfall relationship. We developed linear mixed-effects models that considered the random effects of sample points nested in soil units for nested two-level modeling and single-level modeling of soil units and sample points, respectively. Additionally, three functions, including the exponential function (exp), the power function (power), and the constant plus power function (CPP), were tested to remove heterogeneity, and an additional three correlation structures, including the first-order autoregressive structure [AR(1)], a combination of first-order autoregressive and moving average structures [ARMA(1,1)] and the compound symmetry structure (CS), were used to address the spatiotemporal correlations. It was concluded that the nested two-level model considering both heteroscedasticity with (CPP) and spatiotemporal correlation with [ARMA(1,1)] showed the best performance (AMR = 0.1881, RMSE = 0.2576, adj- R 2 = 0.9593). Variations between soil units and sample points that may have an effect on the NDVI-rainfall relationship should be included in model structures, and linear mixed-effects modeling achieves this in an effective and accurate way.

Turbulent reacting flow computations including turbulence-chemistry interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Narayan, J. R.; Girimaji, S. S.

1992-01-01

A two-equation (k-epsilon) turbulence model has been extended to be applicable for compressible reacting flows. A compressibility correction model based on modeling the dilatational terms in the Reynolds stress equations has been used. A turbulence-chemistry interaction model is outlined. In this model, the effects of temperature and species mass concentrations fluctuations on the species mass production rates are decoupled. The effect of temperature fluctuations is modeled via a moment model, and the effect of concentration fluctuations is included using an assumed beta-pdf model. Preliminary results obtained using this model are presented. A two-dimensional reacting mixing layer has been used as a test case. Computations are carried out using the Navier-Stokes solver SPARK using a finite rate chemistry model for hydrogen-air combustion.

Models as an Aid to Courses in Crystallography and Mineralogy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brady, K. T.

1983-01-01

Three models used in teaching crystallography/mineralogy at the University of Technology (Papua, New Guinea) are described. These include stereographic projection model, optical indicatrix models for Istropic/Anisotropic minerals, and model showing effect of anisotropic minerals under crossed polars. Photographs of the models are also included.…

A unified analytical drain current model for Double-Gate Junctionless Field-Effect Transistors including short channel effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raksharam; Dutta, Aloke K.

2017-04-01

In this paper, a unified analytical model for the drain current of a symmetric Double-Gate Junctionless Field-Effect Transistor (DG-JLFET) is presented. The operation of the device has been classified into four modes: subthreshold, semi-depleted, accumulation, and hybrid; with the main focus of this work being on the accumulation mode, which has not been dealt with in detail so far in the literature. A physics-based model, using a simplified one-dimensional approach, has been developed for this mode, and it has been successfully integrated with the model for the hybrid mode. It also includes the effect of carrier mobility degradation due to the transverse electric field, which was hitherto missing in the earlier models reported in the literature. The piece-wise models have been unified using suitable interpolation functions. In addition, the model includes two most important short-channel effects pertaining to DG-JLFETs, namely the Drain Induced Barrier Lowering (DIBL) and the Subthreshold Swing (SS) degradation. The model is completely analytical, and is thus computationally highly efficient. The results of our model have shown an excellent match with those obtained from TCAD simulations for both long- and short-channel devices, as well as with the experimental data reported in the literature.

Probabilistic material strength degradation model for Inconel 718 components subjected to high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bast, Callie C.; Boyce, Lola

1995-01-01

This report presents the results of both the fifth and sixth year effort of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). The research included on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes five effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, high-cycle mechanical fatigue, low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for five variables, namely, high temperature, high-cycle and low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using an updated version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of high-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue was performed. Then using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS94, a second sensitivity study including the effect of low-cycle mechanical fatigue, as well as, the three previous effects was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of high-cycle mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Estimating Additive and Non-Additive Genetic Variances and Predicting Genetic Merits Using Genome-Wide Dense Single Nucleotide Polymorphism Markers

PubMed Central

Su, Guosheng; Christensen, Ole F.; Ostersen, Tage; Henryon, Mark; Lund, Mogens S.

2012-01-01

Non-additive genetic variation is usually ignored when genome-wide markers are used to study the genetic architecture and genomic prediction of complex traits in human, wild life, model organisms or farm animals. However, non-additive genetic effects may have an important contribution to total genetic variation of complex traits. This study presented a genomic BLUP model including additive and non-additive genetic effects, in which additive and non-additive genetic relation matrices were constructed from information of genome-wide dense single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. In addition, this study for the first time proposed a method to construct dominance relationship matrix using SNP markers and demonstrated it in detail. The proposed model was implemented to investigate the amounts of additive genetic, dominance and epistatic variations, and assessed the accuracy and unbiasedness of genomic predictions for daily gain in pigs. In the analysis of daily gain, four linear models were used: 1) a simple additive genetic model (MA), 2) a model including both additive and additive by additive epistatic genetic effects (MAE), 3) a model including both additive and dominance genetic effects (MAD), and 4) a full model including all three genetic components (MAED). Estimates of narrow-sense heritability were 0.397, 0.373, 0.379 and 0.357 for models MA, MAE, MAD and MAED, respectively. Estimated dominance variance and additive by additive epistatic variance accounted for 5.6% and 9.5% of the total phenotypic variance, respectively. Based on model MAED, the estimate of broad-sense heritability was 0.506. Reliabilities of genomic predicted breeding values for the animals without performance records were 28.5%, 28.8%, 29.2% and 29.5% for models MA, MAE, MAD and MAED, respectively. In addition, models including non-additive genetic effects improved unbiasedness of genomic predictions. PMID:23028912

Including Finite Surface Span Effects in Empirical Jet-Surface Interaction Noise Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Clifford A.

2016-01-01

The effect of finite span on the jet-surface interaction noise source and the jet mixing noise shielding and reflection effects is considered using recently acquired experimental data. First, the experimental setup and resulting data are presented with particular attention to the role of surface span on far-field noise. These effects are then included in existing empirical models that have previously assumed that all surfaces are semi-infinite. This extended abstract briefly describes the experimental setup and data leaving the empirical modeling aspects for the final paper.

Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, W.-C.; Stone, P. H.

1980-01-01

The feedback between the ice albedo and temperature is included in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on global sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current climate conditions. This ice-albedo feedback amplifies global sensitivity by 26 and 39%, respectively, for assumptions of fixed cloud altitude and fixed cloud temperature. The global sensitivity is not affected significantly if the latitudinal variations of mean solar zenith angle and cloud cover are included in the global model. The differences in global sensitivity between one-dimensional radiative-convective models and energy balance models are examined. It is shown that the models are in close agreement when the same feedback mechanisms are included. The one-dimensional radiative-convective model with ice-albedo feedback included is used to compute the equilibrium ice line as a function of solar constant.

Influence of backup bearings and support structure dynamics on the behavior of rotors with active supports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flowers, George T.

1994-01-01

Progress over the past year includes the following: A simplified rotor model with a flexible shaft and backup bearings has been developed. A simple rotor model which includes a flexible disk and bearings with clearance has been developed and the dynamics of the model investigated. A rotor model based upon the T-501 engine has been developed which includes backup bearing effects. Parallel simulation runs are being conducted using an ANSYS based finite element model of the T-501. The magnetic bearing test rig is currently floating and dynamics/control tests are being conducted. A paper has been written that documents the work using the T-501 engine model. Work has continued with the simplified model. The finite element model is currently being modified to include the effects of foundation dynamics. A literature search for material on foil bearings has been conducted. A finite element model is being developed for a magnetic bearing in series with a foil backup bearing.

The dynamics of life stressors and depressive symptoms in early adolescence: a test of six theoretical models.

PubMed

Clements, Margaret; Aber, J Lawrence; Seidman, Edward

2008-01-01

Structural equation modeling was used to compare 6 competing theoretically based psychosocial models of the longitudinal association between life stressors and depressive symptoms in a sample of early adolescents (N= 907; 40% Hispanic, 32% Black, and 19% White; mean age at Time 1 = 11.4 years). Only two models fit the data, both of which included paths modeling the effect of depressive symptoms on stressors recall: The mood-congruent cognitive bias model included only depressive symptoms to life stressors paths (DS-->S), whereas the fully transactional model included paths representing both the DS-->S and stressors to depressive symptoms (S-->DS) effects. Social causation models and the stress generation model did not fit the data. Findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for mood-congruent cognitive bias in stressors-depressive symptoms investigations.

Model dielectric function for 2D semiconductors including substrate screening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trolle, Mads L.; Pedersen, Thomas G.; Véniard, Valerie

2017-01-01

Dielectric screening of excitons in 2D semiconductors is known to be a highly non-local effect, which in reciprocal space translates to a strong dependence on momentum transfer q. We present an analytical model dielectric function, including the full non-linear q-dependency, which may be used as an alternative to more numerically taxing ab initio screening functions. By verifying the good agreement between excitonic optical properties calculated using our model dielectric function, and those derived from ab initio methods, we demonstrate the versatility of this approach. Our test systems include: Monolayer hBN, monolayer MoS2, and the surface exciton of a 2 × 1 reconstructed Si(111) surface. Additionally, using our model, we easily take substrate screening effects into account. Hence, we include also a systematic study of the effects of substrate media on the excitonic optical properties of MoS2 and hBN.

[Primary branch size of Pinus koraiensis plantation: a prediction based on linear mixed effect model].

PubMed

Dong, Ling-Bo; Liu, Zhao-Gang; Li, Feng-Ri; Jiang, Li-Chun

2013-09-01

By using the branch analysis data of 955 standard branches from 60 sampled trees in 12 sampling plots of Pinus koraiensis plantation in Mengjiagang Forest Farm in Heilongjiang Province of Northeast China, and based on the linear mixed-effect model theory and methods, the models for predicting branch variables, including primary branch diameter, length, and angle, were developed. Considering tree effect, the MIXED module of SAS software was used to fit the prediction models. The results indicated that the fitting precision of the models could be improved by choosing appropriate random-effect parameters and variance-covariance structure. Then, the correlation structures including complex symmetry structure (CS), first-order autoregressive structure [AR(1)], and first-order autoregressive and moving average structure [ARMA(1,1)] were added to the optimal branch size mixed-effect model. The AR(1) improved the fitting precision of branch diameter and length mixed-effect model significantly, but all the three structures didn't improve the precision of branch angle mixed-effect model. In order to describe the heteroscedasticity during building mixed-effect model, the CF1 and CF2 functions were added to the branch mixed-effect model. CF1 function improved the fitting effect of branch angle mixed model significantly, whereas CF2 function improved the fitting effect of branch diameter and length mixed model significantly. Model validation confirmed that the mixed-effect model could improve the precision of prediction, as compare to the traditional regression model for the branch size prediction of Pinus koraiensis plantation.

Finite element modeling of contaminant transport in soils including the effect of chemical reactions.

PubMed

Javadi, A A; Al-Najjar, M M

2007-05-17

The movement of chemicals through soils to the groundwater is a major cause of degradation of water resources. In many cases, serious human and stock health implications are associated with this form of pollution. Recent studies have shown that the current models and methods are not able to adequately describe the leaching of nutrients through soils, often underestimating the risk of groundwater contamination by surface-applied chemicals, and overestimating the concentration of resident solutes. Furthermore, the effect of chemical reactions on the fate and transport of contaminants is not included in many of the existing numerical models for contaminant transport. In this paper a numerical model is presented for simulation of the flow of water and air and contaminant transport through unsaturated soils with the main focus being on the effects of chemical reactions. The governing equations of miscible contaminant transport including advection, dispersion-diffusion and adsorption effects together with the effect of chemical reactions are presented. The mathematical framework and the numerical implementation of the model are described in detail. The model is validated by application to a number of test cases from the literature and is then applied to the simulation of a physical model test involving transport of contaminants in a block of soil with particular reference to the effects of chemical reactions. Comparison of the results of the numerical model with the experimental results shows that the model is capable of predicting the effects of chemical reactions with very high accuracy. The importance of consideration of the effects of chemical reactions is highlighted.

Whale Hearing Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-20

methodologies and partnership projects developed under the ONR Effect of Sound in the Marine Environment (ESME) Program. The effort involved an integration...computational models to predict audiograms for these species. National Security These data will assist in designing effective noise mitigation measures and...includes marine species for which there are reliable hearing data as well as sample sources with appropriate distance effects in their renditions, including

Revisiting the pole tide for and from satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, Shailen; Wahr, John; Beckley, Brian

2015-12-01

Satellite altimeter sea surface height observations include the geocentric displacements caused by the pole tide, namely the response of the solid Earth and oceans to polar motion. Most users of these data remove these effects using a model that was developed more than 20 years ago. We describe two improvements to the pole tide model for satellite altimeter measurements. Firstly, we recommend an approach that improves the model for the response of the oceans by including the effects of self-gravitation, loading, and mass conservation. Our recommended approach also specifically includes the previously ignored displacement of the solid Earth due to the load of the ocean response, and includes the effects of geocenter motion. Altogether, this improvement amplifies the modeled geocentric pole tide by 15 %, or up to 2 mm of sea surface height displacement. We validate this improvement using two decades of satellite altimeter measurements. Secondly, we recommend that the altimetry pole tide model exclude geocentric sea surface displacements resulting from the long-term drift in polar motion. The response to this particular component of polar motion requires a more rigorous approach than is used by conventional models. We show that erroneously including the response to this component of polar motion in the pole tide model impacts interpretation of regional sea level rise by ± 0.25 mm/year.

Can Economic Model Transparency Improve Provider Interpretation of Cost-effectiveness Analysis? Evaluating Tradeoffs Presented by the Second Panel on Cost-effectiveness in Health and Medicine.

PubMed

Padula, William V; McQueen, Robert Brett; Pronovost, Peter J

2017-11-01

The Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine convened on December 7, 2016 at the National Academy of Medicine to disseminate their recommendations for conduct, methodological practices, and reporting of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). Following its summary, panel proceedings included lengthy discussions including the field's struggle to disseminate findings efficiently through peer-reviewed literature to target audiences. With editors of several medical and outcomes research journals in attendance, there was consensus that findings of cost-effectiveness analyses do not effectively reach other researchers or health care providers. The audience members suggested several solutions including providing additional training to clinicians in cost-effectiveness research and requiring that cost-effectiveness models are made publicly available. However, there remains the questions of whether making economic modelers' work open-access through journals is fair under the defense that these models remain one's own intellectual property, or whether journals can properly manage the peer-review process specifically for cost-effectiveness analyses. In this article, we elaborate on these issues and provide some suggested solutions that may increase the dissemination and application of cost-effectiveness literature to reach its intended audiences and ultimately benefit the patient. Ultimately, it is our combined view as economic modelers and clinicians that cost-effectiveness results need to reach the clinician to improve the efficiency of medical practice, but that open-access models do not improve clinician access or interpretation of the economics of medicine.

Solar Ion Processing of Itokawa Grains: Reconciling Model Predictions with Sample Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christoffersen, Roy; Keller, L. P.

2014-01-01

Analytical TEM observations of Itokawa grains reported to date show complex solar wind ion processing effects in the outer 30-100 nm of pyroxene and olivine grains. The effects include loss of long-range structural order, formation of isolated interval cavities or "bubbles", and other nanoscale compositional/microstructural variations. None of the effects so far described have, however, included complete ion-induced amorphization. To link the array of observed relationships to grain surface exposure times, we have adapted our previous numerical model for progressive solar ion processing effects in lunar regolith grains to the Itokawa samples. The model uses SRIM ion collision damage and implantation calculations within a framework of a constant-deposited-energy model for amorphization. Inputs include experimentally-measured amorphization fluences, a Pi steradian variable ion incidence geometry required for a rotating asteroid, and a numerical flux-versus-velocity solar wind spectrum.

The Coriolis Effect: A Model for Student Involvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Exline, Joseph D.

1977-01-01

Lists materials and procedures for constructing a model that demonstrates certain aspects of the Coriolis effect. Materials include an electric drill motor, voltage control, toy dart gun and darts, wood blocks of varying dimensions. Includes description of an experiment illustrating relationship between speed of rotation and amount of apparent…

Prophylaxis of cervical cancer and related cervical disease: a review of the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against oncogenic HPV types.

PubMed

Armstrong, Edward P

2010-04-01

Vaccines have demonstrated cost-effectiveness in managed care through the prevention of disease. As new vaccines for previously untargeted conditions are developed, pharmacoeconomic modeling is becoming even more critical for the quantification of value in the health care industry. Two recently developed vaccines aimed at prevention of infection from human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 have proven to be highly efficacious. HPV 16 and 18 are the 2 most common oncogenic strains of HPV and are responsible for 70% of cervical cancer cases worldwide. Persistent infection with an oncogenic HPV type is a known cause of cervical cancer. Therefore, prevention of cervical cancer via HPV vaccination may have a significant financial impact. To qualitatively review existing mathematical models of the cost effectiveness of prophylactic HPV vaccination, with an emphasis on the impact on managed care in the United States. Mathematical models of the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination based on U.S. data were reviewed. A search of the PubMed database was conducted using the search terms "HPV," "vaccine," and "cost-effectiveness" for articles published before February 22, 2010. Studies employing mathematical models to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in healthy subjects from the United States were included. Models based on data or populations from outside of the United States were excluded. Outcomes were measured with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), typically in units of quality-adjusted life expectancy (quality-adjusted life years [QALYs] gained). Most studies included in this review modeled vaccination of a cohort or population of females aged 12 years. Assessment of catch-up vaccination in females (through aged 24 to 26 years) was included in a couple of reports. One study examined vaccination in older females (aged 35, 40, and 45 years). Models typically compared a strategy of HPV vaccination with the current practice of cervical screening (sampling of cervical cells for disease detection) alone. 11 studies of cost-effectiveness modeling of HPV vaccination were included in this review. A direct quantitative comparison of model results is challenging due to the utilization of different model types as well as differences in variables selected within the same model type. Each model produced a range of cost-effectiveness ratios, dependent on variables included in sensitivity analyses and model assumptions. Sensitivity analyses revealed the lowest ICER to be $997 per QALY gained and the highest ICER to be $12,749,000 per QALY gained. This enormous range highlights the need to clarify what model assumptions are being made. The 2 studies that included modeling of catch-up vaccination scenarios in females older than age 12 years also produced a wide range of ICERs. One study, assuming 90% efficacy, 100% coverage, and lifelong immunity, modeled catch-up vaccination in all females aged 12 to 24 years and yielded an ICER of $4,666 per QALY. If the duration of protection was limited to 10 years, then costs increased to $21,121 per QALY. The other study modeling catch-up HPV vaccination assumed 100% efficacy, 75% coverage, and lifelong immunity. ICERs in this study for outcomes relating to cervical cancer ranged from $43,600 per QALY in the base model vaccinating only 12 year olds with no catch-up vaccination, to $152,700 in a model including catch-up vaccination through age 26 years. Although catch-up to age 21 years resulted in a cost of $120,400 per QALY, the ICER decreased to $101,300 per QALY if model outcomes related to prevention of genital warts were also included. The lone study modeling vaccination in women aged 35 to 45 years resulted in an ICER range of $116,950 to $272,350 per QALY when compared with annual and biennial cytological screening. Cost-effectiveness was defined as an ICER at or below $100,000 per QALY gained. All models of female adolescent vaccination were able to produce vaccination strategies that would be cost-effective according to this definition in addition to many strategies that would be cost-prohibitive. Variables influential in determining cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination included the frequency of accompanying cervical screening, the age at which screening is initiated, vaccination efficacy, duration of vaccine protection, and the age range of females to be vaccinated. The actual effectiveness of HPV vaccination in the female population will also depend on levels of vaccine uptake or coverage and compliance in completing all vaccine doses. Clinical studies have shown HPV vaccination to be highly efficacious and potentially lifesaving if administered to females naive or unexposed to vaccine HPV types. Modeling studies have also shown that HPV vaccination can be cost-effective with an ICER of $100,000 or less per QALY gained if administered to females aged 12 years in the context of cervical screening intervals typically greater than 1 year. Catch-up vaccination through 21 years of age increases the cost per QALY to more than $100,000. Until real-world coverage rates increase, cost-effectiveness modeling of HPV vaccination underestimates the actual cost per QALY.

Using Radiation Risk Models in Cancer Screening Simulations: Important Assumptions and Effects on Outcome Projections

PubMed Central

Lee, Janie M.; McMahon, Pamela M.; Lowry, Kathryn P.; Omer, Zehra B.; Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Pandharipande, Pari V.; Gazelle, G. Scott

2012-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the effect of incorporating radiation risk into microsimulation (first-order Monte Carlo) models for breast and lung cancer screening to illustrate effects of including radiation risk on patient outcome projections. Materials and Methods: All data used in this study were derived from publicly available or deidentified human subject data. Institutional review board approval was not required. The challenges of incorporating radiation risk into simulation models are illustrated with two cancer screening models (Breast Cancer Model and Lung Cancer Policy Model) adapted to include radiation exposure effects from mammography and chest computed tomography (CT), respectively. The primary outcome projected by the breast model was life expectancy (LE) for BRCA1 mutation carriers. Digital mammographic screening beginning at ages 25, 30, 35, and 40 years was evaluated in the context of screenings with false-positive results and radiation exposure effects. The primary outcome of the lung model was lung cancer–specific mortality reduction due to annual screening, comparing two diagnostic CT protocols for lung nodule evaluation. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to estimate the mean values of the results with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: Without radiation exposure effects, the breast model indicated that annual digital mammography starting at age 25 years maximized LE (72.03 years; 95% UI: 72.01 years, 72.05 years) and had the highest number of screenings with false-positive results (2.0 per woman). When radiation effects were included, annual digital mammography beginning at age 30 years maximized LE (71.90 years; 95% UI: 71.87 years, 71.94 years) with a lower number of screenings with false-positive results (1.4 per woman). For annual chest CT screening of 50-year-old females with no follow-up for nodules smaller than 4 mm in diameter, the lung model predicted lung cancer–specific mortality reduction of 21.50% (95% UI: 20.90%, 22.10%) without radiation risk and 17.75% (95% UI: 16.97%, 18.41%) with radiation risk. Conclusion: Because including radiation exposure risk can influence long-term projections from simulation models, it is important to include these risks when conducting modeling-based assessments of diagnostic imaging. © RSNA, 2012 Supplemental material: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11110352/-/DC1 PMID:22357897

Modeling the effect of photosynthetic vegetation properties on the NDVI--LAI relationship.

PubMed

Steltzer, Heidi; Welker, Jeffrey M

2006-11-01

Developing a relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the leaf area index (LAI) is essential to describe the pattern of spatial or temporal variation in LAI that controls carbon, water, and energy exchange in many ecosystem process models. Photosynthetic vegetation (PV) properties can affect the estimation of LAI, but no models integrate the effects of multiple species. We developed four alternative NDVI-LAI models, three of which integrate PV effects: no PV effects, leaf-level effects, canopy-level effects, and effects at both levels. The models were fit to data across the natural range of variation in NDVI for a widespread High Arctic ecosystem. The weight of evidence supported the canopy-level model (Akaike weight, wr = 0.98), which includes species-specific canopy coefficients that primarily scale fractional PV cover to LAI by accounting for the area of unexposed PV. Modeling the canopy-level effects improved prediction of LAI (R2 = 0.82) over the model with no PV effect (R2 = 0.71) across the natural range of variation in NDVI but did not affect the site-level estimate of LAI. Satellite-based methods to estimate species composition, a variable in the model, will need to be developed. We expect that including the effects of PV properties in NDVI-LAI models will improve prediction of LAI where species composition varies across space or changes over time.

Derivation of an applied nonlinear Schroedinger equation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pitts, Todd Alan; Laine, Mark Richard; Schwarz, Jens

We derive from first principles a mathematical physics model useful for understanding nonlinear optical propagation (including filamentation). All assumptions necessary for the development are clearly explained. We include the Kerr effect, Raman scattering, and ionization (as well as linear and nonlinear shock, diffraction and dispersion). We explain the phenomenological sub-models and each assumption required to arrive at a complete and consistent theoretical description. The development includes the relationship between shock and ionization and demonstrates why inclusion of Drude model impedance effects alters the nature of the shock operator. Unclassified Unlimited Release

Microfluidic System Simulation Including the Electro-Viscous Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rojas, Eileen; Chen, C. P.; Majumdar, Alok

2007-01-01

This paper describes a practical approach using a general purpose lumped-parameter computer program, GFSSP (Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program) for calculating flow distribution in a network of micro-channels including electro-viscous effects due to the existence of electrical double layer (EDL). In this study, an empirical formulation for calculating an effective viscosity of ionic solutions based on dimensional analysis is described to account for surface charge and bulk fluid conductivity, which give rise to electro-viscous effect in microfluidics network. Two dimensional slit micro flow data was used to determine the model coefficients. Geometry effect is then included through a Poiseuille number correlation in GFSSP. The bi-power model was used to calculate flow distribution of isotropically etched straight channel and T-junction microflows involving ionic solutions. Performance of the proposed model is assessed against experimental test data.

Risk-Based Fire Safety Experiment Definition for Manned Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Apostolakis, G. E.; Ho, V. S.; Marcus, E.; Perry, A. T.; Thompson, S. L.

1989-01-01

Risk methodology is used to define experiments to be conducted in space which will help to construct and test the models required for accident sequence identification. The development of accident scenarios is based on the realization that whether damage occurs depends on the time competition of two processes: the ignition and creation of an adverse environment, and the detection and suppression activities. If the fire grows and causes damage faster than it is detected and suppressed, then an accident occurred. The proposed integrated experiments will provide information on individual models that apply to each of the above processes, as well as previously unidentified interactions and processes, if any. Initially, models that are used in terrestrial fire risk assessments are considered. These include heat and smoke release models, detection and suppression models, as well as damage models. In cases where the absence of gravity substantially invalidates a model, alternate models will be developed. Models that depend on buoyancy effects, such as the multizone compartment fire models, are included in these cases. The experiments will be performed in a variety of geometries simulating habitable areas, racks, and other spaces. These simulations will necessitate theoretical studies of scaling effects. Sensitivity studies will also be carried out including the effects of varying oxygen concentrations, pressures, fuel orientation and geometry, and air flow rates. The experimental apparatus described herein includes three major modules: the combustion, the fluids, and the command and power modules.

The impact of ARM on climate modeling

DOE PAGES

Randall, David A.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Donner, Lee J.; ...

2016-07-15

Climate models are among humanity’s most ambitious and elaborate creations. They are designed to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere on time scales far beyond the limits of deterministic predictability and including the effects of time-dependent external forcings. The processes involved include radiative transfer, fluid dynamics, microphysics, and some aspects of geochemistry, biology, and ecology. The models explicitly simulate processes on spatial scales ranging from the circumference of Earth down to 100 km or smaller and implicitly include the effects of processes on even smaller scales down to a micron or so. In addition, themore » atmospheric component of a climate model can be called an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM).« less

Full Bayes Poisson gamma, Poisson lognormal, and zero inflated random effects models: Comparing the precision of crash frequency estimates.

PubMed

Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan

2013-01-01

In recent years, complex statistical modeling approaches have being proposed to handle the unobserved heterogeneity and the excess of zeros frequently found in crash data, including random effects and zero inflated models. This research compares random effects, zero inflated, and zero inflated random effects models using a full Bayes hierarchical approach. The models are compared not just in terms of goodness-of-fit measures but also in terms of precision of posterior crash frequency estimates since the precision of these estimates is vital for ranking of sites for engineering improvement. Fixed-over-time random effects models are also compared to independent-over-time random effects models. For the crash dataset being analyzed, it was found that once the random effects are included in the zero inflated models, the probability of being in the zero state is drastically reduced, and the zero inflated models degenerate to their non zero inflated counterparts. Also by fixing the random effects over time the fit of the models and the precision of the crash frequency estimates are significantly increased. It was found that the rankings of the fixed-over-time random effects models are very consistent among them. In addition, the results show that by fixing the random effects over time, the standard errors of the crash frequency estimates are significantly reduced for the majority of the segments on the top of the ranking. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PKPD model of interleukin-21 effects on thermoregulation in monkeys--application and evaluation of stochastic differential equations.

PubMed

Overgaard, Rune Viig; Holford, Nick; Rytved, Klaus A; Madsen, Henrik

2007-02-01

To describe the pharmacodynamic effects of recombinant human interleukin-21 (IL-21) on core body temperature in cynomolgus monkeys using basic mechanisms of heat regulation. A major effort was devoted to compare the use of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling. A temperature model was formulated including circadian rhythm, metabolism, heat loss, and a thermoregulatory set-point. This model was formulated as a mixed-effects model based on SDEs using NONMEM. The effects of IL-21 were on the set-point and the circadian rhythm of metabolism. The model was able to describe a complex set of IL-21 induced phenomena, including 1) disappearance of the circadian rhythm, 2) no effect after first dose, and 3) high variability after second dose. SDEs provided a more realistic description with improved simulation properties, and further changed the model into one that could not be falsified by the autocorrelation function. The IL-21 induced effects on thermoregulation in cynomolgus monkeys are explained by a biologically plausible model. The quality of the model was improved by the use of SDEs.

Prediction of rain effects on earth-space communication links operating in the 10 to 35 GHz frequency range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stutzman, Warren L.

1989-01-01

This paper reviews the effects of precipitation on earth-space communication links operating the 10 to 35 GHz frequency range. Emphasis is on the quantitative prediction of rain attenuation and depolarization. Discussions center on the models developed at Virginia Tech. Comments on other models are included as well as literature references to key works. Also included is the system level modeling for dual polarized communication systems with techniques for calculating antenna and propagation medium effects. Simple models for the calculation of average annual attenuation and cross-polarization discrimination (XPD) are presented. Calculation of worst month statistics are also presented.

Exploring Effects of Hypoxia on Fish and Fisheries in the Northern Gulf of Mexico using a Dynamic Spatially-Explicit Ecosystem Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Mutsert, K.; Steenbeek, J.; Lewis, K.; Buszowski, J.; Cowan, J. H., Jr.; Christensen, V.

2016-02-01

The formation of an extensive hypoxic area off the Louisiana coast has been well publicized. However, determining the effects of this hypoxic zone on fish and fisheries has proven to be more difficult. The dual effect of nutrient loading on secondary production (positive effects of bottom-up fueling, and negative effects of reduced oxygen levels) impedes the quantification of hypoxia effects on fish and fisheries. The objective of this study was to develop an ecosystem model that is able to separate the two effects, and to evaluate net effects of hypoxia on fish biomass and fisheries landings. An Ecospace model was developed using Ecopath with Ecosim software with an added plug-in to include spatially and temporally dynamic Chlorophyll a (Chl a) and dissolved oxygen (DO) values derived from a coupled physical-biological hypoxia model. Effects of hypoxia were determined by simulating scenarios with DO and Chl a included separately and combined, and a scenario without fish response to Chl a or DO. Fishing fleets were included in the model as well; fleets move to cells with highest revenue following a gravitational model. Results of this model suggest that the increases in total fish biomass and fisheries landings as a result of an increase in primary production outweigh the decreases as a result of hypoxic conditions. However, the results also demonstrated that responses were species-specific, and some species such as red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) did suffer a net loss in biomass. Scenario-analyses with this model could be used to determine the optimal nutrient load reduction from a fisheries perspective.

Accounting for dominance to improve genomic evaluations of dairy cows for fertility and milk production traits.

PubMed

Aliloo, Hassan; Pryce, Jennie E; González-Recio, Oscar; Cocks, Benjamin G; Hayes, Ben J

2016-02-01

Dominance effects may contribute to genetic variation of complex traits in dairy cattle, especially for traits closely related to fitness such as fertility. However, traditional genetic evaluations generally ignore dominance effects and consider additive genetic effects only. Availability of dense single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) panels provides the opportunity to investigate the role of dominance in quantitative variation of complex traits at both the SNP and animal levels. Including dominance effects in the genomic evaluation of animals could also help to increase the accuracy of prediction of future phenotypes. In this study, we estimated additive and dominance variance components for fertility and milk production traits of genotyped Holstein and Jersey cows in Australia. The predictive abilities of a model that accounts for additive effects only (additive), and a model that accounts for both additive and dominance effects (additive + dominance) were compared in a fivefold cross-validation. Estimates of the proportion of dominance variation relative to phenotypic variation that is captured by SNPs, for production traits, were up to 3.8 and 7.1 % in Holstein and Jersey cows, respectively, whereas, for fertility, they were equal to 1.2 % in Holstein and very close to zero in Jersey cows. We found that including dominance in the model was not consistently advantageous. Based on maximum likelihood ratio tests, the additive + dominance model fitted the data better than the additive model, for milk, fat and protein yields in both breeds. However, regarding the prediction of phenotypes assessed with fivefold cross-validation, including dominance effects in the model improved accuracy only for fat yield in Holstein cows. Regression coefficients of phenotypes on genetic values and mean squared errors of predictions showed that the predictive ability of the additive + dominance model was superior to that of the additive model for some of the traits. In both breeds, dominance effects were significant (P < 0.01) for all milk production traits but not for fertility. Accuracy of prediction of phenotypes was slightly increased by including dominance effects in the genomic evaluation model. Thus, it can help to better identify highly performing individuals and be useful for culling decisions.

Screening for Chlamydia trachomatis: a systematic review of the economic evaluations and modelling

PubMed Central

Roberts, T E; Robinson, S; Barton, P; Bryan, S; Low, N

2006-01-01

Objective To review systematically and critically, evidence used to derive estimates of costs and cost effectiveness of chlamydia screening. Methods Systematic review. A search of 11 electronic bibliographic databases from the earliest date available to August 2004 using keywords including chlamydia, pelvic inflammatory disease, economic evaluation, and cost. We included studies of chlamydia screening in males and/or females over 14 years, including studies of diagnostic tests, contact tracing, and treatment as part of a screening programme. Outcomes included cases of chlamydia identified and major outcomes averted. We assessed methodological quality and the modelling approach used. Results Of 713 identified papers we included 57 formal economic evaluations and two cost studies. Most studies found chlamydia screening to be cost effective, partner notification to be an effective adjunct, and testing with nucleic acid amplification tests, and treatment with azithromycin to be cost effective. Methodological problems limited the validity of these findings: most studies used static models that are inappropriate for infectious diseases; restricted outcomes were used as a basis for policy recommendations; and high estimates of the probability of chlamydia associated complications might have overestimated cost effectiveness. Two high quality dynamic modelling studies found opportunistic screening to be cost effective but poor reporting or uncertainty about complication rates make interpretation difficult. Conclusion The inappropriate use of static models to study interventions to prevent a communicable disease means that uncertainty remains about whether chlamydia screening programmes are cost effective or not. The results of this review can be used by health service managers in the allocation of resources, and health economists and other researchers who are considering further research in this area. PMID:16731666

Advanced Electronics Technologies: Challenges for Radiation Effects Testing, Modeling, and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LaBel, Kenneth A.; Cohn, Lewis M.

2005-01-01

Emerging Electronics Technologies include: 1) Changes in the commercial semiconductor world; 2) Radiation Effects Sources (A sample test constraint); and 3) Challenges to Radiation Testing and Modeling: a) IC Attributes-Radiation Effects Implication b) Fault Isolation c) Scaled Geometry d) Speed e) Modeling Shortfall f) Knowledge Status

Radiation protection for manned space activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, T. M.

1983-01-01

The Earth's natural radiation environment poses a hazard to manned space activities directly through biological effects and indirectly through effects on materials and electronics. The following standard practices are indicated that address: (1) environment models for all radiation species including uncertainties and temporal variations; (2) upper bound and nominal quality factors for biological radiation effects that include dose, dose rate, critical organ, and linear energy transfer variations; (3) particle transport and shielding methodology including system and man modeling and uncertainty analysis; (4) mission planning that includes active dosimetry, minimizes exposure during extravehicular activities, subjects every mission to a radiation review, and specifies operational procedures for forecasting, recognizing, and dealing with large solar flaes.

Statistical Models for Predicting Automobile Driving Postures for Men and Women Including Effects of Age.

PubMed

Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J

2016-03-01

Previously published statistical models of driving posture have been effective for vehicle design but have not taken into account the effects of age. The present study developed new statistical models for predicting driving posture. Driving postures of 90 U.S. drivers with a wide range of age and body size were measured in laboratory mockup in nine package conditions. Posture-prediction models for female and male drivers were separately developed by employing a stepwise regression technique using age, body dimensions, vehicle package conditions, and two-way interactions, among other variables. Driving posture was significantly associated with age, and the effects of other variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models is presented for women and men. The results are compared with a previously developed model. The present study is the first study of driver posture to include a large cohort of older drivers and the first to report a significant effect of age. The posture-prediction models can be used to position computational human models or crash-test dummies for vehicle design and assessment. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions.

PubMed

French, Joshua P; McGinnis, Seth; Schwartzman, Armin

2017-01-01

We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

2009-05-01

We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1

Model mount system for testing flutter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farmer, M. G. (Inventor)

1984-01-01

A wind tunnel model mount system is disclosed for effectively and accurately determining the effects of attack and airstream velocity on a model airfoil or aircraft. The model mount system includes a rigid model attached to a splitter plate which is supported away from the wind tunnel wall several of flexible rods. Conventional instrumentation is employed to effect model rotation through a turntable and to record model flutter data as a function of the angle of attack versus dynamic pressure.

Effects of including surface depressions in the application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System in the Upper Flint River Basin, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Viger, Roland J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Jones, John W.; Buell, Gary R.

2010-01-01

This report documents an extension of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System that accounts for the effect of a large number of water-holding depressions in the land surface on the hydrologic response of a basin. Several techniques for developing the inputs needed by this extension also are presented. These techniques include the delineation of the surface depressions, the generation of volume estimates for the surface depressions, and the derivation of model parameters required to describe these surface depressions. This extension is valuable for applications in basins where surface depressions are too small or numerous to conveniently model as discrete spatial units, but where the aggregated storage capacity of these units is large enough to have a substantial effect on streamflow. In addition, this report documents several new model concepts that were evaluated in conjunction with the depression storage functionality, including: ?hydrologically effective? imperviousness, rates of hydraulic conductivity, and daily streamflow routing. All of these techniques are demonstrated as part of an application in the Upper Flint River Basin, Georgia. Simulated solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, and water balances match observations well, with small errors for the first two simulated data in June and August because of differences in temperatures from the calibration and evaluation periods for those months. Daily runoff simulations show increasing accuracy with streamflow and a good fit overall. Including surface depression storage in the model has the effect of decreasing daily streamflow for all but the lowest flow values. The report discusses the choices and resultant effects involved in delineating and parameterizing these features. The remaining enhancements to the model and its application provide a more realistic description of basin geography and hydrology that serve to constrain the calibration process to more physically realistic parameter values.

Multilevel mixed effects parametric survival models using adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature with application to recurrent events and individual participant data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Crowther, Michael J; Look, Maxime P; Riley, Richard D

2014-09-28

Multilevel mixed effects survival models are used in the analysis of clustered survival data, such as repeated events, multicenter clinical trials, and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses, to investigate heterogeneity in baseline risk and covariate effects. In this paper, we extend parametric frailty models including the exponential, Weibull and Gompertz proportional hazards (PH) models and the log logistic, log normal, and generalized gamma accelerated failure time models to allow any number of normally distributed random effects. Furthermore, we extend the flexible parametric survival model of Royston and Parmar, modeled on the log-cumulative hazard scale using restricted cubic splines, to include random effects while also allowing for non-PH (time-dependent effects). Maximum likelihood is used to estimate the models utilizing adaptive or nonadaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The methods are evaluated through simulation studies representing clinically plausible scenarios of a multicenter trial and IPD meta-analysis, showing good performance of the estimation method. The flexible parametric mixed effects model is illustrated using a dataset of patients with kidney disease and repeated times to infection and an IPD meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies in patients with breast cancer. User-friendly Stata software is provided to implement the methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Numerical Simulation of Liquid Jet Atomization Including Turbulence Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trinh, Huu P.; Chen, C. P.; Balasubramanyam, M. S.

2005-01-01

This paper describes numerical implementation of a newly developed hybrid model, T-blob/T-TAB, into an existing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program for primary and secondary breakup simulation of liquid jet atomization. This model extend two widely used models, the Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability of Reitz (blob model) and the Taylor-Analogy-Breakup (TAB) secondary droplet breakup by O'Rourke and Amsden to include turbulence effects. In the primary breakup model, the level of the turbulence effect on the liquid breakup depends on the characteristic scales and the initial flow conditions. For the secondary breakup, an additional turbulence force acted on parent drops is modeled and integrated into the TAB governing equation. Several assessment studies are presented and the results indicate that the existing KH and TAB models tend to under-predict the product drop size and spray angle, while the current model provides superior results when compared with the measured data.

[An ADAA model and its analysis method for agronomic traits based on the double-cross mating design].

PubMed

Xu, Z C; Zhu, J

2000-01-01

According to the double-cross mating design and using principles of Cockerham's general genetic model, a genetic model with additive, dominance and epistatic effects (ADAA model) was proposed for the analysis of agronomic traits. Components of genetic effects were derived for different generations. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted for analyzing the ADAA model and its reduced AD model by using different generations. It was indicated that genetic variance components could be estimated without bias by MINQUE(1) method and genetic effects could be predicted effectively by AUP method; at least three generations (including parent, F1 of single cross and F1 of double-cross) were necessary for analyzing the ADAA model and only two generations (including parent and F1 of double-cross) were enough for the reduced AD model. When epistatic effects were taken into account, a new approach for predicting the heterosis of agronomic traits of double-crosses was given on the basis of unbiased prediction of genotypic merits of parents and their crosses. In addition, genotype x environment interaction effects and interaction heterosis due to G x E interaction were discussed briefly.

Future costs in cost effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Robert H

2008-07-01

This paper resolves several controversies in CEA. Generalizing [Garber, A.M., Phelps, C.E., 1997. Economic foundations of cost-effectiveness analysis. Journal of Health Economics 16 (1), 1-31], the paper shows accounting for unrelated future costs distorts decision making. After replicating [Meltzer, D., 1997. Accounting for future costs in medical cost-effectiveness analysis. Journal of Health Economics 16 (1), 33-64] quite different conclusion that unrelated future costs should be included in CEA, the paper shows that Meltzer's findings result from modeling the budget constraint as an annuity, which is problematic. The paper also shows that related costs should be included in CEA. This holds for a variety of models, including a health maximization model. CEA should treat costs in the manner recommended by Garber and Phelps.

Aerodynamics model for a generic ASTOVL lift-fan aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birckelbaw, Lourdes G.; Mcneil, Walter E.; Wardwell, Douglas A.

1995-01-01

This report describes the aerodynamics model used in a simulation model of an advanced short takeoff and vertical landing (ASTOVL) lift-fan fighter aircraft. The simulation model was developed for use in piloted evaluations of transition and hover flight regimes, so that only low speed (M approximately 0.2) aerodynamics are included in the mathematical model. The aerodynamic model includes the power-off aerodynamic forces and moments and the propulsion system induced aerodynamic effects, including ground effects. The power-off aerodynamics data were generated using the U.S. Air Force Stability and Control Digital DATCOM program and a NASA Ames in-house graphics program called VORVIEW which allows the user to easily analyze arbitrary conceptual aircraft configurations using the VORLAX program. The jet-induced data were generated using the prediction methods of R. E. Kuhn et al., as referenced in this report.

Probabilistic Material Strength Degradation Model for Inconel 718 Components Subjected to High Temperature, High-Cycle and Low-Cycle Mechanical Fatigue, Creep and Thermal Fatigue Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bast, Callie C.; Boyce, Lola

1995-01-01

The development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation is described. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes five effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, high-cycle mechanical fatigue, low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing predictions of high-cycle mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects with experiments are presented. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported that material degradation can be represented by randomized multifactor interaction models.

AAC Modeling Intervention Research Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sennott, Samuel C.; Light, Janice C.; McNaughton, David

2016-01-01

A systematic review of research on the effects of interventions that include communication partner modeling of aided augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) on the language acquisition of individuals with complex communication needs was conducted. Included studies incorporated AAC modeling as a primary component of the intervention,…

Systematic review of model-based analyses reporting the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of cardiovascular disease management programs.

PubMed

Maru, Shoko; Byrnes, Joshua; Whitty, Jennifer A; Carrington, Melinda J; Stewart, Simon; Scuffham, Paul A

2015-02-01

The reported cost effectiveness of cardiovascular disease management programs (CVD-MPs) is highly variable, potentially leading to different funding decisions. This systematic review evaluates published modeled analyses to compare study methods and quality. Articles were included if an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) or cost-utility ratio (ICUR) was reported, it is a multi-component intervention designed to manage or prevent a cardiovascular disease condition, and it addressed all domains specified in the American Heart Association Taxonomy for Disease Management. Nine articles (reporting 10 clinical outcomes) were included. Eight cost-utility and two cost-effectiveness analyses targeted hypertension (n=4), coronary heart disease (n=2), coronary heart disease plus stoke (n=1), heart failure (n=2) and hyperlipidemia (n=1). Study perspectives included the healthcare system (n=5), societal and fund holders (n=1), a third party payer (n=3), or was not explicitly stated (n=1). All analyses were modeled based on interventions of one to two years' duration. Time horizon ranged from two years (n=1), 10 years (n=1) and lifetime (n=8). Model structures included Markov model (n=8), 'decision analytic models' (n=1), or was not explicitly stated (n=1). Considerable variation was observed in clinical and economic assumptions and reporting practices. Of all ICERs/ICURs reported, including those of subgroups (n=16), four were above a US$50,000 acceptability threshold, six were below and six were dominant. The majority of CVD-MPs was reported to have favorable economic outcomes, but 25% were at unacceptably high cost for the outcomes. Use of standardized reporting tools should increase transparency and inform what drives the cost-effectiveness of CVD-MPs. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

A Bayesian Semiparametric Latent Variable Model for Mixed Responses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Raach, Alexander

2007-01-01

In this paper we introduce a latent variable model (LVM) for mixed ordinal and continuous responses, where covariate effects on the continuous latent variables are modelled through a flexible semiparametric Gaussian regression model. We extend existing LVMs with the usual linear covariate effects by including nonparametric components for nonlinear…

Electrode models for electric current computed tomography.

PubMed

Cheng, K S; Isaacson, D; Newell, J C; Gisser, D G

1989-09-01

This paper develops a mathematical model for the physical properties of electrodes suitable for use in electric current computed tomography (ECCT). The model includes the effects of discretization, shunt, and contact impedance. The complete model was validated by experiment. Bath resistivities of 284.0, 139.7, 62.3, 29.5 omega.cm were studied. Values of "effective" contact impedance zeta used in the numerical approximations were 58.0, 35.0, 15.0, and 7.5 omega.cm2, respectively. Agreement between the calculated and experimentally measured values was excellent throughout the range of bath conductivities studied. It is desirable in electrical impedance imaging systems to model the observed voltages to the same precision as they are measured in order to be able to make the highest resolution reconstructions of the internal conductivity that the measurement precision allows. The complete electrode model, which includes the effects of discretization of the current pattern, the shunt effect due to the highly conductive electrode material, and the effect of an "effective" contact impedance, allows calculation of the voltages due to any current pattern applied to a homogeneous resistivity field.

LADAR Range Image Interpolation Exploiting Pulse Width Expansion

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-22

normal to each other. The LADAR model needs to include the complete BRDF model covered in Section 2.1.3, which includes speckle reflection as well as...the gradient of a surface. This study estimates the gradi- ent of the surface of an object from a modeled LADAR return pulse that includes accurate...probabilistic noise models . The range and surface gradient estimations are incorporated into a novel interpolator that facilitates an effective three

The effect of the hot oxygen corona on the interaction of the solar wind with Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belotserkovskii, O. M.; Mitnitskii, V. IA.; Breus, T. K.; Krymskii, A. M.; Nagy, A. F.

1987-01-01

A numerical gasdynamic model, which includes the effects of mass loading of the shocked solar wind, was used to calculate the density and magnetic field variations in the magnetosheath of Venus. These calculations were carried out for conditions corresponding to a specific orbit of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO orbit 582). A comparison of the model predictions and the measured shock position, density and magnetic field values showed a reasonable agreement, indicating that a gasdynamic model that includes the effects of mass loading can be used to predict these parameters.

The effect of the hot oxygen corona on the interaction of the solar wind with Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belotserkovskii, O. M.; Breus, T. K.; Krymskii, A. M.; Mitnitskii, V. Ya.; Nagey, A. F.; Gombosi, T. I.

1987-05-01

A numerical gas dynamic model, which includes the effects of mass loading of the shocked solar wind, was used to calculate the density and magnetic field variations in the magnetosheath of Venus. These calculations were carried out for conditions corresponding to a specific orbit of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO orbit 582). A comparison of the model predictions and the measured shock position, density and magnetic field values showed a reasonable agreement, indicating that a gas dynamic model that includes the effects of mass loading can be used to predict these parameters.

NASA Models of Space Radiation Induced Cancer, Circulatory Disease, and Central Nervous System Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori J.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.

2013-01-01

The risks of late effects from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are potentially a limitation to long-term space travel. The late effects of highest concern have significant lethality including cancer, effects to the central nervous system (CNS), and circulatory diseases (CD). For cancer and CD the use of age and gender specific models with uncertainty assessments based on human epidemiology data for low LET radiation combined with relative biological effectiveness factors (RBEs) and dose- and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors (DDREF) to extrapolate these results to space radiation exposures is considered the current "state-of-the-art". The revised NASA Space Risk Model (NSRM-2014) is based on recent radio-epidemiology data for cancer and CD, however a key feature of the NSRM-2014 is the formulation of particle fluence and track structure based radiation quality factors for solid cancer and leukemia risk estimates, which are distinct from the ICRP quality factors, and shown to lead to smaller uncertainties in risk estimates. Many persons exposed to radiation on earth as well as astronauts are life-time never-smokers, which is estimated to significantly modify radiation cancer and CD risk estimates. A key feature of the NASA radiation protection model is the classification of radiation workers by smoking history in setting dose limits. Possible qualitative differences between GCR and low LET radiation increase uncertainties and are not included in previous risk estimates. Two important qualitative differences are emerging from research studies. The first is the increased lethality of tumors observed in animal models compared to low LET radiation or background tumors. The second are Non- Targeted Effects (NTE), which include bystander effects and genomic instability, which has been observed in cell and animal models of cancer risks. NTE's could lead to significant changes in RBE and DDREF estimates for GCR particles, and the potential effectiveness of radiation mitigator's. The NSRM- 2014 approaches to model radiation quality dependent lethality and NTE's will be described. CNS effects include both early changes that may occur during long space missions and late effects such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD effects 50% of the population above age 80-yr, is a degenerative disease that worsens with time after initial onset leading to death, and has no known cure. AD is difficult to detect at early stages and the small number of low LET epidemiology studies undertaken have not identified an association with low dose radiation. However experimental studies in mice suggest GCR may lead to early onset AD. We discuss modeling approaches to consider mechanisms whereby radiation would lead to earlier onset of occurrence of AD. Biomarkers of AD include amyloid beta (A(Beta)) plaques, and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) made up of aggregates of the hyperphosphorylated form of the micro-tubule associated, tau protein. Related markers include synaptic degeneration, dentritic spine loss, and neuronal cell loss through apoptosis. Radiation may affect these processes by causing oxidative stress, aberrant signaling following DNA damage, and chronic neuroinflammation. Cell types to be considered in multi-scale models are neurons, astrocytes, and microglia. We developed biochemical and cell kinetics models of DNA damage signaling related to glycogen synthase kinase-3(Beta) (GSK3(Beta)) and neuroinflammation, and considered multi-scale modeling approaches to develop computer simulations of cell interactions and their relationships to A(Beta) plaques and NFTs. Comparison of model results to experimental data for the age specific development of A(Beta) plaques in transgenic mice will be discussed.

A Literature Review of the Effect of Malaria on Stunting.

PubMed

Jackson, Bianca D; Black, Robert E

2017-11-01

Background: The current version of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) maternal and child health impact modeling software does not include an effect of malaria on stunting. Objective: This literature review was undertaken to determine whether such a causal link should be included in the LiST model. Methods: The PubMed, Embase, and Scopus databases were searched by using broad search terms. The searches returned a total of 4281 documents. Twelve studies from among the retrieved documents were included in the review according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Results: There was mixed evidence for an effect of malaria on stunting among longitudinal observational studies, and none of the randomized controlled trials of malaria interventions found an effect of the interventions on stunting. Conclusions: There is insufficient evidence to include malaria as a determinant of stunting or an effect of malaria interventions on stunting in the LiST model. The paucity and heterogeneity of the available literature were a major limitation. In addition, the studies included in the review consistently fulfilled their ethical responsibility to treat children under observation for malaria, which may have interfered with the natural history of the disease and prevented any observable effect on stunting or linear growth. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

What constitutes an effective community pharmacy?--development of a preliminary model of organizational effectiveness through concept mapping with multiple stakeholders.

PubMed

Scahill, S L; Harrison, J; Carswell, P

2010-08-01

To develop a multi-constituent model of organizational effectiveness for community pharmacy. Using Concept Systems software, a project with 14 stakeholders included a three stage process: (i) face to face brainstorming to generate statements describing what constitutes an effective community pharmacy, followed by (ii) statement reduction and approval by participants, followed by (iii) sorting of the statements into themes with rating of each statement for importance. Primary care in a government-funded, national health care system. A multi-constituent group representing policy-makers and health care providers including; community pharmacy, professional pharmacy organizations, primary health care funders and policy-makers, general practitioners and general practice support organizations. Statement clusters included: 'has safe and effective workflows', 'contributes to the safe use of medicines', 'manages human resources and has leadership', 'has a community focus', 'is integrated within primary care', 'is a respected innovator', 'provides health promotion and preventative care', 'communicates and advocates'. These clusters fit into a quadrant model setting stakeholder focus against role development. The poles of stakeholder focus are 'internal capacity' and 'social utility'. The poles of role development are labelled 'traditional safety roles' and 'integration and innovation'. Organizational effectiveness in community pharmacy includes the internal and external focus of the organization and role development. Our preliminary model describes an effective community pharmacy and provides a platform for investigation of the factors that may influence the organizational effectiveness of individual community pharmacies now and into the future.

Explicit continuous charge-based compact model for long channel heavily doped surrounding-gate MOSFETs incorporating interface traps and quantum effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamzah, Afiq; Hamid, Fatimah A.; Ismail, Razali

2016-12-01

An explicit solution for long-channel surrounding-gate (SRG) MOSFETs is presented from intrinsic to heavily doped body including the effects of interface traps and fixed oxide charges. The solution is based on the core SRGMOSFETs model of the Unified Charge Control Model (UCCM) for heavily doped conditions. The UCCM model of highly doped SRGMOSFETs is derived to obtain the exact equivalent expression as in the undoped case. Taking advantage of the undoped explicit charge-based expression, the asymptotic limits for below threshold and above threshold have been redefined to include the effect of trap states for heavily doped cases. After solving the asymptotic limits, an explicit mobile charge expression is obtained which includes the trap state effects. The explicit mobile charge model shows very good agreement with respect to numerical simulation over practical terminal voltages, doping concentration, geometry effects, and trap state effects due to the fixed oxide charges and interface traps. Then, the drain current is obtained using the Pao-Sah's dual integral, which is expressed as a function of inversion charge densities at the source/drain ends. The drain current agreed well with the implicit solution and numerical simulation for all regions of operation without employing any empirical parameters. A comparison with previous explicit models has been conducted to verify the competency of the proposed model with the doping concentration of 1× {10}19 {{cm}}-3, as the proposed model has better advantages in terms of its simplicity and accuracy at a higher doping concentration.

Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, J.S.

1990-01-01

This report describes dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. In addition, models are included for assessing the risks of several nonlethal early and continuing effects -- including prodromal vomiting and diarrhea, hypothyroidism and radiation thyroiditis, skin burns, reproductive effects, and pregnancy losses. Linear andmore » linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and other.'' The category, other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also developed. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. The models of cancer risk are derived largely from information summarized in BEIR III -- with some adjustment to reflect more recent studies. 64 refs., 18 figs., 46 tabs.« less

Non-Targeted Effects Models Predict Significantly Higher Mars Mission Cancer Risk than Targeted Effects Models

DOE PAGES

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Cacao, Eliedonna

2017-05-12

Cancer risk is an important concern for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures, which consist of a wide-energy range of protons, heavy ions and secondary radiation produced in shielding and tissues. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors for surrogate cancer endpoints in cell culture models and tumor induction in mice vary considerable, including significant variations for different tissues and mouse strains. Many studies suggest non-targeted effects (NTE) occur for low doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, leading to deviation from the linear dose response model used in radiation protection. Using the mouse Harderian gland tumor experiment, the only extensive data-setmore » for dose response modelling with a variety of particle types (>4), for the first-time a particle track structure model of tumor prevalence is used to investigate the effects of NTEs in predictions of chronic GCR exposure risk. The NTE model led to a predicted risk 2-fold higher compared to a targeted effects model. The scarcity of data with animal models for tissues that dominate human radiation cancer risk, including lung, colon, breast, liver, and stomach, suggest that studies of NTEs in other tissues are urgently needed prior to long-term space missions outside the protection of the Earth’s geomagnetic sphere.« less

Non-Targeted Effects Models Predict Significantly Higher Mars Mission Cancer Risk than Targeted Effects Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Cacao, Eliedonna

Cancer risk is an important concern for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures, which consist of a wide-energy range of protons, heavy ions and secondary radiation produced in shielding and tissues. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors for surrogate cancer endpoints in cell culture models and tumor induction in mice vary considerable, including significant variations for different tissues and mouse strains. Many studies suggest non-targeted effects (NTE) occur for low doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, leading to deviation from the linear dose response model used in radiation protection. Using the mouse Harderian gland tumor experiment, the only extensive data-setmore » for dose response modelling with a variety of particle types (>4), for the first-time a particle track structure model of tumor prevalence is used to investigate the effects of NTEs in predictions of chronic GCR exposure risk. The NTE model led to a predicted risk 2-fold higher compared to a targeted effects model. The scarcity of data with animal models for tissues that dominate human radiation cancer risk, including lung, colon, breast, liver, and stomach, suggest that studies of NTEs in other tissues are urgently needed prior to long-term space missions outside the protection of the Earth’s geomagnetic sphere.« less

Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

PubMed Central

French, Joshua P.; McGinnis, Seth; Schwartzman, Armin

2017-01-01

We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference. PMID:28936474

Modelling the Cost Effectiveness of Disease-Modifying Treatments for Multiple Sclerosis

PubMed Central

Thompson, Joel P.; Abdolahi, Amir; Noyes, Katia

2013-01-01

Several cost-effectiveness models of disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) for multiple sclerosis (MS) have been developed for different populations and different countries. Vast differences in the approaches and discrepancies in the results give rise to heated discussions and limit the use of these models. Our main objective is to discuss the methodological challenges in modelling the cost effectiveness of treatments for MS. We conducted a review of published models to describe the approaches taken to date, to identify the key parameters that influence the cost effectiveness of DMTs, and to point out major areas of weakness and uncertainty. Thirty-six published models and analyses were identified. The greatest source of uncertainty is the absence of head-to-head randomized clinical trials. Modellers have used various techniques to compensate, including utilizing extension trials. The use of large observational cohorts in recent studies aids in identifying population-based, ‘real-world’ treatment effects. Major drivers of results include the time horizon modelled and DMT acquisition costs. Model endpoints must target either policy makers (using cost-utility analysis) or clinicians (conducting cost-effectiveness analyses). Lastly, the cost effectiveness of DMTs outside North America and Europe is currently unknown, with the lack of country-specific data as the major limiting factor. We suggest that limited data should not preclude analyses, as models may be built and updated in the future as data become available. Disclosure of modelling methods and assumptions could improve the transferability and applicability of models designed to reflect different healthcare systems. PMID:23640103

Structural Equation Modeling: A Framework for Ocular and Other Medical Sciences Research

PubMed Central

Christ, Sharon L.; Lee, David J.; Lam, Byron L.; Diane, Zheng D.

2017-01-01

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a modeling framework that encompasses many types of statistical models and can accommodate a variety of estimation and testing methods. SEM has been used primarily in social sciences but is increasingly used in epidemiology, public health, and the medical sciences. SEM provides many advantages for the analysis of survey and clinical data, including the ability to model latent constructs that may not be directly observable. Another major feature is simultaneous estimation of parameters in systems of equations that may include mediated relationships, correlated dependent variables, and in some instances feedback relationships. SEM allows for the specification of theoretically holistic models because multiple and varied relationships may be estimated together in the same model. SEM has recently expanded by adding generalized linear modeling capabilities that include the simultaneous estimation of parameters of different functional form for outcomes with different distributions in the same model. Therefore, mortality modeling and other relevant health outcomes may be evaluated. Random effects estimation using latent variables has been advanced in the SEM literature and software. In addition, SEM software has increased estimation options. Therefore, modern SEM is quite general and includes model types frequently used by health researchers, including generalized linear modeling, mixed effects linear modeling, and population average modeling. This article does not present any new information. It is meant as an introduction to SEM and its uses in ocular and other health research. PMID:24467557

Effects of model error on control of large flexible space antenna with comparisons of decoupled and linear quadratic regulator control procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamer, H. A.; Johnson, K. G.

1986-01-01

An analysis was performed to determine the effects of model error on the control of a large flexible space antenna. Control was achieved by employing two three-axis control-moment gyros (CMG's) located on the antenna column. State variables were estimated by including an observer in the control loop that used attitude and attitude-rate sensors on the column. Errors were assumed to exist in the individual model parameters: modal frequency, modal damping, mode slope (control-influence coefficients), and moment of inertia. Their effects on control-system performance were analyzed either for (1) nulling initial disturbances in the rigid-body modes, or (2) nulling initial disturbances in the first three flexible modes. The study includes the effects on stability, time to null, and control requirements (defined as maximum torque and total momentum), as well as on the accuracy of obtaining initial estimates of the disturbances. The effects on the transients of the undisturbed modes are also included. The results, which are compared for decoupled and linear quadratic regulator (LQR) control procedures, are shown in tabular form, parametric plots, and as sample time histories of modal-amplitude and control responses. Results of the analysis showed that the effects of model errors on the control-system performance were generally comparable for both control procedures. The effect of mode-slope error was the most serious of all model errors.

The Multigroup Multilevel Categorical Latent Growth Curve Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hung, Lai-Fa

2010-01-01

Longitudinal data describe developmental patterns and enable predictions of individual changes beyond sampled time points. Major methodological issues in longitudinal data include modeling random effects, subject effects, growth curve parameters, and autoregressive residuals. This study embedded the longitudinal model within a multigroup…

Evaluation of some random effects methodology applicable to bird ringing data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burnham, K.P.; White, Gary C.

2002-01-01

Existing models for ring recovery and recapture data analysis treat temporal variations in annual survival probability (S) as fixed effects. Often there is no explainable structure to the temporal variation in S1,..., Sk; random effects can then be a useful model: Si = E(S) + ??i. Here, the temporal variation in survival probability is treated as random with average value E(??2) = ??2. This random effects model can now be fit in program MARK. Resultant inferences include point and interval estimation for process variation, ??2, estimation of E(S) and var (E??(S)) where the latter includes a component for ??2 as well as the traditional component for v??ar(S??\\S??). Furthermore, the random effects model leads to shrinkage estimates, Si, as improved (in mean square error) estimators of Si compared to the MLE, S??i, from the unrestricted time-effects model. Appropriate confidence intervals based on the Si are also provided. In addition, AIC has been generalized to random effects models. This paper presents results of a Monte Carlo evaluation of inference performance under the simple random effects model. Examined by simulation, under the simple one group Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model, are issues such as bias of ??s2, confidence interval coverage on ??2, coverage and mean square error comparisons for inference about Si based on shrinkage versus maximum likelihood estimators, and performance of AIC model selection over three models: Si ??? S (no effects), Si = E(S) + ??i (random effects), and S1,..., Sk (fixed effects). For the cases simulated, the random effects methods performed well and were uniformly better than fixed effects MLE for the Si.

A numerical simulation of the dispersal of aerial sprays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bragg, M. B.

1981-01-01

A computer program was developed to predict the trajectory, ground deposition, and drift of liquid sprays injected into the wake of an agricultural aircraft in ground effect. The program uses a horseshoe vortex wake model and includes the effects of liquid droplet evaporation, crosswind, the propeller slipstream, ground effect, and tunnel walls on small scale models. This user's guide includes several case examples demonstrating user options. A complete listing of the FORTRAN program is provided.

Electric Propulsion Interactions Code (EPIC): Recent Enhancements and Goals for Future Capabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gardner, Barbara M.; Kuharski, Robert A.; Davis, Victoria A.; Ferguson, Dale C.

2007-01-01

The Electric Propulsion Interactions Code (EPIC) is the leading interactive computer tool for assessing the effects of electric thruster plumes on spacecraft subsystems. EPIC, developed by SAIC under the sponsorship of the Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, has three primary modules. One is PlumeTool, which calculates plumes of electrostatic thrusters and Hall-effect thrusters by modeling the primary ion beam as well as elastic scattering and charge-exchange of beam ions with thruster-generated neutrals. ObjectToolkit is a 3-D object definition and spacecraft surface modeling tool developed for use with several SEE Program codes. The main EPIC interface integrates the thruster plume into the 3-D geometry of the spacecraft and calculates interactions and effects of the plume with the spacecraft. Effects modeled include erosion of surfaces due to sputtering, re-deposition of sputtered materials, surface heating, torque on the spacecraft, and changes in surface properties due to erosion and deposition. In support of Prometheus I (JIMO), a number of new capabilities and enhancements were made to existing EPIC models. Enhancements to EPIC include adding the ability to scale and view individual plume components, to import a neutral plume associated with a thruster (to model a grid erosion plume, for example), and to calculate the plume from new initial beam conditions. Unfortunately, changes in program direction have left a number of desired enhancements undone. Variable gridding over a surface and resputtering of deposited materials, including multiple bounces and sticking coefficients, would significantly enhance the erosion/deposition model. Other modifications such as improving the heating model and the PlumeTool neutral plume model, enabling time dependent surface interactions, and including EM1 and optical effects would enable EPIC to better serve the aerospace engineer and electric propulsion systems integrator. We review EPIC S overall capabilities and recent modifications, and discuss directions for future enhancements.

Models and techniques for evaluating the effectiveness of aircraft computing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, J. F.

1978-01-01

The development of system models that can provide a basis for the formulation and evaluation of aircraft computer system effectiveness, the formulation of quantitative measures of system effectiveness, and the development of analytic and simulation techniques for evaluating the effectiveness of a proposed or existing aircraft computer are described. Specific topics covered include: system models; performability evaluation; capability and functional dependence; computation of trajectory set probabilities; and hierarchical modeling of an air transport mission.

Handling Correlations between Covariates and Random Slopes in Multilevel Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bates, Michael David; Castellano, Katherine E.; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia; Skrondal, Anders

2014-01-01

This article discusses estimation of multilevel/hierarchical linear models that include cluster-level random intercepts and random slopes. Viewing the models as structural, the random intercepts and slopes represent the effects of omitted cluster-level covariates that may be correlated with included covariates. The resulting correlations between…

Viral kinetic modeling: state of the art

DOE PAGES

Canini, Laetitia; Perelson, Alan S.

2014-06-25

Viral kinetic modeling has led to increased understanding of the within host dynamics of viral infections and the effects of therapy. Here we review recent developments in the modeling of viral infection kinetics with emphasis on two infectious diseases: hepatitis C and influenza. We review how viral kinetic modeling has evolved from simple models of viral infections treated with a drug or drug cocktail with an assumed constant effectiveness to models that incorporate drug pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, as well as phenomenological models that simply assume drugs have time varying-effectiveness. We also discuss multiscale models that include intracellular events in viralmore » replication, models of drug-resistance, models that include innate and adaptive immune responses and models that incorporate cell-to-cell spread of infection. Overall, viral kinetic modeling has provided new insights into the understanding of the disease progression and the modes of action of several drugs. In conclusion, we expect that viral kinetic modeling will be increasingly used in the coming years to optimize drug regimens in order to improve therapeutic outcomes and treatment tolerability for infectious diseases.« less

X ray opacity in cluster cooling flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wise, Michael W.; Sarazin, Craig L.

1993-01-01

We have calculated the emergent x-ray properties for a set of spherically symmetric, steady-state cluster cooling flow models including the effects of radiative transfer. Opacity due to resonant x-ray lines, photoelectric absorption, and electron scattering have been included in these calculations, and homogeneous and inhomogeneous gas distributions were considered. The effects of photoionization opacity are small for both types of models. In contrast, resonant line optical depths can be quite high in both homogeneous and inhomogeneous models. The presence of turbulence in the gas can significantly lower the line opacity. We find that integrated x-ray spectra for the flow cooling now are only slightly affected by radiative transfer effects. However x-ray line surface brightness profiles can be dramatically affected by radiative transfer. Line profiles are also strongly affected by transfer effects. The combined effects of opacity and inflow cause many of the lines in optically thick models to be asymmetrical.

The Use of Theory in School Effectiveness Research Revisited

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheerens, Jaap

2013-01-01

From an international review of 109 school effectiveness research studies, only 6 could be seen as theory driven. As the border between substantive conceptual models of educational effectiveness and theory-based models is not always very sharp, this number might be increased to 11 by including those studies that are based on models that make…

RF verification tasks underway at the Harris Corporation for multiple aperture reflector system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutwein, T. A.

1982-01-01

Mesh effects on gain and patterns and adjacent aperture coupling effects for "pie" and circular apertures are discussed. Wire effects for Harris model with Langley scale model results included for assessing D/lamda effects, and wire effects with adjacent aperture coupling were determined. Reflector surface distortion effects (pillows and manufacturing roughness) were studied.

Marginalized zero-altered models for longitudinal count data.

PubMed

Tabb, Loni Philip; Tchetgen, Eric J Tchetgen; Wellenius, Greg A; Coull, Brent A

2016-10-01

Count data often exhibit more zeros than predicted by common count distributions like the Poisson or negative binomial. In recent years, there has been considerable interest in methods for analyzing zero-inflated count data in longitudinal or other correlated data settings. A common approach has been to extend zero-inflated Poisson models to include random effects that account for correlation among observations. However, these models have been shown to have a few drawbacks, including interpretability of regression coefficients and numerical instability of fitting algorithms even when the data arise from the assumed model. To address these issues, we propose a model that parameterizes the marginal associations between the count outcome and the covariates as easily interpretable log relative rates, while including random effects to account for correlation among observations. One of the main advantages of this marginal model is that it allows a basis upon which we can directly compare the performance of standard methods that ignore zero inflation with that of a method that explicitly takes zero inflation into account. We present simulations of these various model formulations in terms of bias and variance estimation. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to analyze toxicological data of the effect of emissions on cardiac arrhythmias.

Marginalized zero-altered models for longitudinal count data

PubMed Central

Tabb, Loni Philip; Tchetgen, Eric J. Tchetgen; Wellenius, Greg A.; Coull, Brent A.

2015-01-01

Count data often exhibit more zeros than predicted by common count distributions like the Poisson or negative binomial. In recent years, there has been considerable interest in methods for analyzing zero-inflated count data in longitudinal or other correlated data settings. A common approach has been to extend zero-inflated Poisson models to include random effects that account for correlation among observations. However, these models have been shown to have a few drawbacks, including interpretability of regression coefficients and numerical instability of fitting algorithms even when the data arise from the assumed model. To address these issues, we propose a model that parameterizes the marginal associations between the count outcome and the covariates as easily interpretable log relative rates, while including random effects to account for correlation among observations. One of the main advantages of this marginal model is that it allows a basis upon which we can directly compare the performance of standard methods that ignore zero inflation with that of a method that explicitly takes zero inflation into account. We present simulations of these various model formulations in terms of bias and variance estimation. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to analyze toxicological data of the effect of emissions on cardiac arrhythmias. PMID:27867423

Nonlinear Fluid Model Of 3-D Field Effects In Tokamak Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callen, J. D.; Hegna, C. C.; Beidler, M. T.

2017-10-01

Extended MHD codes (e.g., NIMROD, M3D-C1) are beginning to explore nonlinear effects of small 3-D magnetic fields on tokamak plasmas. To facilitate development of analogous physically understandable reduced models, a fluid-based dynamic nonlinear model of these added 3-D field effects in the base axisymmetric tokamak magnetic field geometry is being developed. The model incorporates kinetic-based closures within an extended MHD framework. Key 3-D field effects models that have been developed include: 1) a comprehensive modified Rutherford equation for the growth of a magnetic island that includes the classical tearing and NTM perturbed bootstrap current drives, externally applied magnetic field and current drives, and classical and neoclassical polarization current effects, and 2) dynamic nonlinear evolution of the plasma toroidal flow (radial electric field) in response to the 3-D fields. An application of this model to RMP ELM suppression precipitated by an ELM crash will be discussed. Supported by Office of Fusion Energy Sciences, Office of Science, Dept. of Energy Grants DE-FG02-86ER53218 and DE-FG02-92ER54139.

Improvement of Prediction Ability for Genomic Selection of Dairy Cattle by Including Dominance Effects

PubMed Central

Sun, Chuanyu; VanRaden, Paul M.; Cole, John B.; O'Connell, Jeffrey R.

2014-01-01

Dominance may be an important source of non-additive genetic variance for many traits of dairy cattle. However, nearly all prediction models for dairy cattle have included only additive effects because of the limited number of cows with both genotypes and phenotypes. The role of dominance in the Holstein and Jersey breeds was investigated for eight traits: milk, fat, and protein yields; productive life; daughter pregnancy rate; somatic cell score; fat percent and protein percent. Additive and dominance variance components were estimated and then used to estimate additive and dominance effects of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The predictive abilities of three models with both additive and dominance effects and a model with additive effects only were assessed using ten-fold cross-validation. One procedure estimated dominance values, and another estimated dominance deviations; calculation of the dominance relationship matrix was different for the two methods. The third approach enlarged the dataset by including cows with genotype probabilities derived using genotyped ancestors. For yield traits, dominance variance accounted for 5 and 7% of total variance for Holsteins and Jerseys, respectively; using dominance deviations resulted in smaller dominance and larger additive variance estimates. For non-yield traits, dominance variances were very small for both breeds. For yield traits, including additive and dominance effects fit the data better than including only additive effects; average correlations between estimated genetic effects and phenotypes showed that prediction accuracy increased when both effects rather than just additive effects were included. No corresponding gains in prediction ability were found for non-yield traits. Including cows with derived genotype probabilities from genotyped ancestors did not improve prediction accuracy. The largest additive effects were located on chromosome 14 near DGAT1 for yield traits for both breeds; those SNPs also showed the largest dominance effects for fat yield (both breeds) as well as for Holstein milk yield. PMID:25084281

Warning systems in risk management.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M E

1986-06-01

A method is presented here that allows probabilistic evaluation and optimization of warning systems, and comparison of their performance and cost-effectiveness with those of other means of risk management. The model includes an assessment of the signals, and of human response, given the memory that people have kept of the quality of previous alerts. The trade-off between the rate of false alerts and the length of the lead time is studied to account for the long-term effects of "crying wolf" and the effectiveness of emergency actions. An explicit formulation of the system's benefits, including inputs from a signal model, a response model, and a consequence model, is given to allow optimization of the warning threshold and of the system's sensitivity.

Study report on combining diagnostic and therapeutic considerations with subsystem and whole-body simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Furukawa, S.

1975-01-01

Current applications of simulation models for clinical research described included tilt model simulation of orthostatic intolerance with hemorrhage, and modeling long term circulatory circulation. Current capabilities include: (1) simulation of analogous pathological states and effects of abnormal environmental stressors by the manipulation of system variables and changing inputs in various sequences; (2) simulation of time courses of responses of controlled variables by the altered inputs and their relationships; (3) simulation of physiological responses of treatment such as isotonic saline transfusion; (4) simulation of the effectiveness of a treatment as well as the effects of complication superimposed on an existing pathological state; and (5) comparison of the effectiveness of various treatments/countermeasures for a given pathological state. The feasibility of applying simulation models to diagnostic and therapeutic research problems is assessed.

Probabilistic Material Strength Degradation Model for Inconel 718 Components Subjected to High Temperature, Mechanical Fatigue, Creep and Thermal Fatigue Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bast, Callie Corinne Scheidt

1994-01-01

This thesis presents the on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes four effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for four variables, namely, high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Urban RoGeR: Merging process-based high-resolution flash flood model for urban areas with long-term water balance predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiler, M.

2016-12-01

Heavy rain induced flash floods are still a serious hazard and generate high damages in urban areas. In particular in the spatially complex urban areas, the temporal and spatial pattern of runoff generation processes at a wide spatial range during extreme rainfall events need to be predicted including the specific effects of green infrastructure and urban forests. In addition, the initial conditions (soil moisture pattern, water storage of green infrastructure) and the effect of lateral redistribution of water (run-on effects and re-infiltration) have to be included in order realistically predict flash flood generation. We further developed the distributed, process-based model RoGeR (Runoff Generation Research) to include the relevant features and processes in urban areas in order to test the effects of different settings, initial conditions and the lateral redistribution of water on the predicted flood response. The uncalibrated model RoGeR runs at a spatial resolution of 1*1m² (LiDAR, degree of sealing, landuse), soil properties and geology (1:50.000). In addition, different green infrastructures are included into the model as well as the effect of trees on interception and transpiration. A hydraulic model was included into RoGeR to predict surface runoff, water redistribution, and re-infiltration. During rainfall events, RoGeR predicts at 5 min temporal resolution, but the model also simulates evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge during rain-free periods at a longer time step. The model framework was applied to several case studies in Germany where intense rainfall events produced flash floods causing high damage in urban areas and to a long-term research catchment in an urban setting (Vauban, Freiburg), where a variety of green infrastructures dominates the hydrology. Urban-RoGeR allowed us to study the effects of different green infrastructures on reducing the flood peak, but also its effect on the water balance (evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge). We could also show that infiltration of surface runoff from areas with a low infiltration (lateral redistribution) reduce the flood peaks by over 90% in certain areas and situations. Finally, we also evaluated the model to long-term runoff observations (surface runoff, ET, roof runoff) and to flood marks in the selected case studies.

The effect of QBO on foE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atıcı, Ramazan; Sağır, Selçuk

2017-07-01

In the present work, the relationship with QBO of difference (ΔfoE = foEmea - foEIRI) between critical frequency (foE) values of ionospheric E-region, measured at Darwin and Casos Island stations and calculated by IRI-2012 ionospheric model, is statistically investigated. A multiple regression model is used as statistical tool. The ;Dummy; variables (;DummyWest; and ;DummyEast; represent westerly QBO values and easterly QBO values, respectively) are added to model in order to see the effect of westerly and easterly QBO. In the result of calculations, it is observed that the changes in ΔfoE about 50-52% can be explained by QBO at both stations. The relationship between QBO and ΔfoE is negative at both stations. The change of 1 ms-1 in whole set of QBO leads to a decrease of 0.008 MHz at Casos Island station and 0.017 MHz at Darwin station in ΔfoE. Directions of QBO have an effect on ΔfoE at the Darwin station, but they've not any effect on ΔfoE at Casos Island station. It is thought that the difference values in the foE are due to not to be included in the IRI-model of all parameters affecting the critical frequency value. Thus, QBO which is not included to IRI-model can have an effect on foE and more accurate results can be obtained by IRI model if the QBO is included in this model calculations.

Mixed model of dietary fat effect on postprandial glucose-insulin metabolism from carbohydrates in type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Yamamoto Noguchi, Claudia Cecilia; Kunikane, Noriaki; Hashimoto, Shogo; Furutani, Eiko

2015-08-01

In this study we introduce an extension of a previously developed model of glucose-insulin metabolism in type 1 diabetes (T1D) from carbohydrates that includes the effect of dietary fat on postprandial glycemia. We include two compartments that represent plasma triglyceride and nonesterified fatty acid (NEFA) concentration, in addition to a mathematical representation of delayed gastric emptying and insulin resistance, which are the most well-known effects of dietary fat metabolism. Simulation results show that postprandial glucose as well as lipid levels in our model approximates clinical data from T1D patients.

Calculating Second-Order Effects in MOSFET's

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benumof, Reuben; Zoutendyk, John A.; Coss, James R.

1990-01-01

Collection of mathematical models includes second-order effects in n-channel, enhancement-mode, metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFET's). When dimensions of circuit elements relatively large, effects neglected safely. However, as very-large-scale integration of microelectronic circuits leads to MOSFET's shorter or narrower than 2 micrometer, effects become significant in design and operation. Such computer programs as widely-used "Simulation Program With Integrated Circuit Emphasis, Version 2" (SPICE 2) include many of these effects. In second-order models of n-channel, enhancement-mode MOSFET, first-order gate-depletion region diminished by triangular-cross-section deletions on end and augmented by circular-wedge-cross-section bulges on sides.

Why equal treatment is not always equitable: the impact of existing ethnic health inequalities in cost-effectiveness modeling.

PubMed

McLeod, Melissa; Blakely, Tony; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Harris, Ricci

2014-01-01

A critical first step toward incorporating equity into cost-effectiveness analyses is to appropriately model interventions by population subgroups. In this paper we use a standardized treatment intervention to examine the impact of using ethnic-specific (Māori and non-Māori) data in cost-utility analyses for three cancers. We estimate gains in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for a simple intervention (20% reduction in excess cancer mortality) for lung, female breast, and colon cancers, using Markov modeling. Base models include ethnic-specific cancer incidence with other parameters either turned off or set to non-Māori levels for both groups. Subsequent models add ethnic-specific cancer survival, morbidity, and life expectancy. Costs include intervention and downstream health system costs. For the three cancers, including existing inequalities in background parameters (population mortality and comorbidities) for Māori attributes less value to a year of life saved compared to non-Māori and lowers the relative health gains for Māori. In contrast, ethnic inequalities in cancer parameters have less predictable effects. Despite Māori having higher excess mortality from all three cancers, modeled health gains for Māori were less from the lung cancer intervention than for non-Māori but higher for the breast and colon interventions. Cost-effectiveness modeling is a useful tool in the prioritization of health services. But there are important (and sometimes counterintuitive) implications of including ethnic-specific background and disease parameters. In order to avoid perpetuating existing ethnic inequalities in health, such analyses should be undertaken with care.

Why equal treatment is not always equitable: the impact of existing ethnic health inequalities in cost-effectiveness modeling

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background A critical first step toward incorporating equity into cost-effectiveness analyses is to appropriately model interventions by population subgroups. In this paper we use a standardized treatment intervention to examine the impact of using ethnic-specific (Māori and non-Māori) data in cost-utility analyses for three cancers. Methods We estimate gains in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for a simple intervention (20% reduction in excess cancer mortality) for lung, female breast, and colon cancers, using Markov modeling. Base models include ethnic-specific cancer incidence with other parameters either turned off or set to non-Māori levels for both groups. Subsequent models add ethnic-specific cancer survival, morbidity, and life expectancy. Costs include intervention and downstream health system costs. Results For the three cancers, including existing inequalities in background parameters (population mortality and comorbidities) for Māori attributes less value to a year of life saved compared to non-Māori and lowers the relative health gains for Māori. In contrast, ethnic inequalities in cancer parameters have less predictable effects. Despite Māori having higher excess mortality from all three cancers, modeled health gains for Māori were less from the lung cancer intervention than for non-Māori but higher for the breast and colon interventions. Conclusions Cost-effectiveness modeling is a useful tool in the prioritization of health services. But there are important (and sometimes counterintuitive) implications of including ethnic-specific background and disease parameters. In order to avoid perpetuating existing ethnic inequalities in health, such analyses should be undertaken with care. PMID:24910540

When the Test of Mediation is More Powerful than the Test of the Total Effect

PubMed Central

O'Rourke, Holly P.; MacKinnon, David P.

2014-01-01

Although previous research has studied power in mediation models, the extent to which the inclusion of a mediator will increase power has not been investigated. First, a study compared analytical power of the mediated effect to the total effect in a single mediator model to identify the situations in which the inclusion of one mediator increased statistical power. Results from the first study indicated that including a mediator increased statistical power in small samples with large coefficients and in large samples with small coefficients, and when coefficients were non-zero and equal across models. Next, a study identified conditions where power was greater for the test of the total mediated effect compared to the test of the total effect in the parallel two mediator model. Results indicated that including two mediators increased power in small samples with large coefficients and in large samples with small coefficients, the same pattern of results found in the first study. Finally, a study assessed analytical power for a sequential (three-path) two mediator model and compared power to detect the three-path mediated effect to power to detect both the test of the total effect and the test of the mediated effect for the single mediator model. Results indicated that the three-path mediated effect had more power than the mediated effect from the single mediator model and the test of the total effect. Practical implications of these results for researchers are then discussed. PMID:24903690

Health economics of screening for gynaecological cancers.

PubMed

Kulasingam, Shalini; Havrilesky, Laura

2012-04-01

In this chapter, we summarise findings from recent cost-effectiveness analyses of screening for cervical cancer and ovarian cancer. We begin with a brief summary of key issues that affect the cost-effectiveness of screening, including disease burden, and availability and type of screening tests. For cervical cancer, we discuss the potential effect of human papilloma virus vaccines on screening. Outstanding epidemiological and cost-effectiveness issues are included. For cervical cancer, this includes incorporating the long-term effect of treatment (including adverse birth outcomes in treated women who are of reproductive age) into cost-effectiveness models using newly available trial data to identify the best strategy for incorporating human papilloma virus tests. A second issue is the need for additional data on human papilloma virus vaccines, such as effectiveness of reduced cancer incidence and mortality, effectiveness in previously exposed women and coverage. Definitive data on these parameters will allow us to update model-based analyses to include more realistic estimates, and also potentially dramatically alter our approach to screening. For ovarian cancer, outstanding issues include confirming within the context of a trial that screening is effective for reducing mortality and incorporating tests with high specificity into screening into screening algorithms for ovarian cancer. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indirect genetic effect model using feeding behaviour traits to define the degree of interaction between mates: an implementation in pigs growth rate.

PubMed

Ragab, M; Piles, M; Quintanilla, R; Sánchez, J P

2018-06-06

An alternative implementation of the animal model including indirect genetic effect (IGE) is presented considering pair-mate-specific interaction degrees to improve the performance of the model. Data consisted of average daily gain (ADG) records from 663 pigs kept in groups of 10 to 14 mates during the fattening period. Three types of models were used to fit ADG data: (i) animal model (AM); (ii) AM with classical IGE (AM-IGE); and (iii) AM fitting IGE with a specific degree of interaction between each pair of mates (AM-IGEi). Several feeding behavior phenotypes were used to define the pair-mate-specific degree of interaction in AM-IGEi: feeding rate (g/min), feeding frequency (min/day), the time between consecutive visits to the feeder (min/day), occupation time (min/day) and an index considering all these variables. All models included systematic effects batch, initial age (covariate), final age (covariate), number of pigs per pen (covariate), plus the random effect of the pen. Estimated posterior mean (posterior SD) of heritability was 0.47 (0.15) using AM. Including social genetic effects in the model, total heritable variance expressed as a proportion of total phenotypic variance (T 2) was 0.54 (0.29) using AM-IGE, whereas it ranged from 0.51 to 0.55 (0.12 to 0.14) with AM-IGEi, depending on the behavior trait used to define social interactions. These results confirm the contribution of IGEs to the total heritable variation of ADG. Moreover, important differences between models were observed in EBV rankings. The percentage of coincidence of top 10% animals between AM and AM-IGEi ranged from 0.44 to 0.89 and from 0.41to 0.68 between AM-IGE and AM-IGEi. Based on the goodness of fit and predictive ability, social models are preferred for the genetic evaluation of ADG. Among models including IGEs, when the pair-specific degree of interaction was defined using feeding behavior phenotypes we obtained an increase in the accuracy of genetic parameters estimates, the better goodness of fit and higher predictive ability. We conclude that feeding behavior variables can be used to measure the interaction between pen mates and to improve the performance of models including IGEs.

Thermal Pollution Mathematical Model. Volume 2; Verification of One-Dimensional Numerical Model at Lake Keowee

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. S.; Sengupta, S.; Nwadike, E. V.

1980-01-01

A one dimensional model for studying the thermal dynamics of cooling lakes was developed and verified. The model is essentially a set of partial differential equations which are solved by finite difference methods. The model includes the effects of variation of area with depth, surface heating due to solar radiation absorbed at the upper layer, and internal heating due to the transmission of solar radiation to the sub-surface layers. The exchange of mechanical energy between the lake and the atmosphere is included through the coupling of thermal diffusivity and wind speed. The effects of discharge and intake by power plants are also included. The numerical model was calibrated by applying it to Cayuga Lake. The model was then verified through a long term simulation using Lake Keowee data base. The comparison between measured and predicted vertical temperature profiles for the nine years is good. The physical limnology of Lake Keowee is presented through a set of graphical representations of the measured data base.

Herd-of-origin effect on the post-weaning performance of centrally tested Nellore beef cattle.

PubMed

de Rezende Neves, Haroldo Henrique; Polin dos Reis, Felipe; Motta Paterno, Flávia; Rocha Guarini, Aline; Carvalheiro, Roberto; da Silva, Lilian Regina; de Oliveira, João Ademir; Aidar de Queiroz, Sandra

2014-10-01

The objective of a performance test station is to evaluate the performance of potential breeding bulls earlier in order to decrease the generation interval and increase genetic gain as well. This study evaluates the herd-of-origin influence on end-of-test weight (ETW), average daily weight gain during testing (ADG), average daily weight gain during the adjustment period (ADGadj), rib eye area (REA), marbling (MARB), subcutaneous fat thickness (SFT), conformation (C), early finishing (EF), muscling (M), navel (N) and temperament (T) scores, and scrotal circumference (SC) of Nellore cattle that underwent a performance test. We evaluated 664 animals that participated in the performance tests conducted at the Center for Performance CRV Lagoa between 2007 and 2012. Components of variance for each trait were estimated by an animal model (model 1), using the restricted maximum likelihood method. An alternative animal model (model 2) included, in addition to the fixed effects present in S1, the non-correlated random effect of herd-year (HY). A significant HY effect was observed on ETW, REA, SFT, ADGadj, C, and Cw (p < 0.05). The estimated heritability of all traits decreased when the HY effect was included in the model; also, the bull rank, in deciles, changed significantly for traits ETW, REA, SFT, and C. The adjustment period did not completely remove the environmental effect of herd of origin on ETW, REA, SFT, and C. It is recommended that the herd-of-origin effect should be included in the statistical models used to predict the breeding values of the participants of these performance tests.

Forecasting the Effects of Higher Education Appropriations on Local Economies. AIR 1986 Annual Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prewitt, Sidney A.; And Others

An economic model of the effects of colleges on their communities was developed. The Texas Input-Output Model was modified into a higher education budgetary model. Included were the positive benefits of tax savings and estimates of the net effect on various communities in which state-supported colleges and universities are located. The output…

A novel use of structural equation models to examine factors associated with prediabetes among adults aged 50 years and older: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001-2006.

PubMed

Bardenheier, Barbara H; Bullard, Kai McKeever; Caspersen, Carl J; Cheng, Yiling J; Gregg, Edward W; Geiss, Linda S

2013-09-01

To use structural modeling to test a hypothesized model of causal pathways related with prediabetes among older adults in the U.S. Cross-sectional study of 2,230 older adults (≥ 50 years) without diabetes included in the morning fasting sample of the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Demographic data included age, income, marital status, race/ethnicity, and education. Behavioral data included physical activity (metabolic equivalent hours per week for vigorous or moderate muscle strengthening, walking/biking, and house/yard work), and poor diet (refined grains, red meat, added sugars, solid fats, and high-fat dairy). Structural-equation modeling was performed to examine the interrelationships among these variables with family history of diabetes, high blood pressure, BMI, large waist (waist circumference: women, ≥ 35 inches; men, ≥ 40 inches), triglycerides ≥ 200 mg/dL, and total and HDL (≥ 60 mg/dL) cholesterol. After dropping BMI and total cholesterol, our best-fit model included three single factors: socioeconomic position (SEP), physical activity, and poor diet. Large waist had the strongest direct effect on prediabetes (0.279), followed by male sex (0.270), SEP (-0.157), high blood pressure (0.122), family history of diabetes (0.070), and age (0.033). Physical activity had direct effects on HDL (0.137), triglycerides (-0.136), high blood pressure (-0.132), and large waist (-0.067); poor diet had direct effects on large waist (0.146) and triglycerides (0.148). Our results confirmed that, while including factors known to be associated with high risk of developing prediabetes, large waist circumference had the strongest direct effect. The direct effect of SEP on prediabetes suggests mediation by some unmeasured factor(s).

The Random-Effect DINA Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Hung-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

2014-01-01

The DINA (deterministic input, noisy, and gate) model has been widely used in cognitive diagnosis tests and in the process of test development. The outcomes known as slip and guess are included in the DINA model function representing the responses to the items. This study aimed to extend the DINA model by using the random-effect approach to allow…

Effect Sizes for Growth-Modeling Analysis for Controlled Clinical Trials in the Same Metric as for Classical Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feingold, Alan

2009-01-01

The use of growth-modeling analysis (GMA)--including hierarchical linear models, latent growth models, and general estimating equations--to evaluate interventions in psychology, psychiatry, and prevention science has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, an effect size associated with the difference between the trajectories of the…

Instructional Aids in Mathematics: Using Models as Instructional Aids

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Donovan A.; And Others

1973-01-01

Models are discussed both as concrete representations of mental constructs and as various manipulative devices. Illustrations of effective model use, suggestions for acquiring models, and lists of models for specific concepts are included. (LS)

Nonlinear flow model of multiple fractured horizontal wells with stimulated reservoir volume including the quadratic gradient term

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Junjie; Guo, Ping

2017-11-01

The real fluid flow in porous media is consistent with the mass conservation which can be described by the nonlinear governing equation including the quadratic gradient term (QGT). However, most of the flow models have been established by ignoring the QGT and little work has been conducted to incorporate the QGT into the flow model of the multiple fractured horizontal (MFH) well with stimulated reservoir volume (SRV). This paper first establishes a semi-analytical model of an MFH well with SRV including the QGT. Introducing the transformed pressure and flow-rate function, the nonlinear model of a point source in a composite system including the QGT is linearized. Then the Laplace transform, principle of superposition, numerical discrete method, Gaussian elimination method and Stehfest numerical inversion are employed to establish and solve the seepage model of the MFH well with SRV. Type curves are plotted and the effects of relevant parameters are analyzed. It is found that the nonlinear effect caused by the QGT can increase the flow capacity of fluid flow and influence the transient pressure positively. The relevant parameters not only have an effect on the type curve but also affect the error in the pressure calculated by the conventional linear model. The proposed model, which is consistent with the mass conservation, reflects the nonlinear process of the real fluid flow, and thus it can be used to obtain more accurate transient pressure of an MFH well with SRV.

The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

DOE PAGES

Winterhalter, Wade E.

2011-09-01

Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I foundmore » that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.« less

Mechanistic modelling of the inhibitory effect of pH on microbial growth.

PubMed

Akkermans, Simen; Van Impe, Jan F

2018-06-01

Modelling and simulation of microbial dynamics as a function of processing, transportation and storage conditions is a useful tool to improve microbial food safety and quality. The goal of this research is to improve an existing methodology for building mechanistic predictive models based on the environmental conditions. The effect of environmental conditions on microbial dynamics is often described by combining the separate effects in a multiplicative way (gamma concept). This idea was extended further in this work by including the effects of the lag and stationary growth phases on microbial growth rate as independent gamma factors. A mechanistic description of the stationary phase as a function of pH was included, based on a novel class of models that consider product inhibition. Experimental results on Escherichia coli growth dynamics indicated that also the parameters of the product inhibition equations can be modelled with the gamma approach. This work has extended a modelling methodology, resulting in predictive models that are (i) mechanistically inspired, (ii) easily identifiable with a limited work load and (iii) easily extended to additional environmental conditions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

GetReal in mathematical modelling: a review of studies predicting drug effectiveness in the real world.

PubMed

Panayidou, Klea; Gsteiger, Sandro; Egger, Matthias; Kilcher, Gablu; Carreras, Máximo; Efthimiou, Orestis; Debray, Thomas P A; Trelle, Sven; Hummel, Noemi

2016-09-01

The performance of a drug in a clinical trial setting often does not reflect its effect in daily clinical practice. In this third of three reviews, we examine the applications that have been used in the literature to predict real-world effectiveness from randomized controlled trial efficacy data. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE from inception to March 2014, the Cochrane Methodology Register, and websites of key journals and organisations and reference lists. We extracted data on the type of model and predictions, data sources, validation and sensitivity analyses, disease area and software. We identified 12 articles in which four approaches were used: multi-state models, discrete event simulation models, physiology-based models and survival and generalized linear models. Studies predicted outcomes over longer time periods in different patient populations, including patients with lower levels of adherence or persistence to treatment or examined doses not tested in trials. Eight studies included individual patient data. Seven examined cardiovascular and metabolic diseases and three neurological conditions. Most studies included sensitivity analyses, but external validation was performed in only three studies. We conclude that mathematical modelling to predict real-world effectiveness of drug interventions is not widely used at present and not well validated. © 2016 The Authors Research Synthesis Methods Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors Research Synthesis Methods Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Aircraft wake vortex transport model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1974-03-31

A wake vortex transport model has been developed which includes the effects of wind and wind : shear, buoyancy, mutual and self-induction, ground plane interaction, viscous decay, finite core : and Crow instability effects. Photographic and ground-wi...

Preclinical Models in Chimeric Antigen Receptor-Engineered T-Cell Therapy.

PubMed

Siegler, Elizabeth Louise; Wang, Pin

2018-05-01

Cancer immunotherapy has enormous potential in inducing long-term remission in cancer patients, and chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-engineered T cells have been largely successful in treating hematological malignancies in the clinic. CAR-T therapy has not been as effective in treating solid tumors, in part due to the immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment. Additionally, CAR-T therapy can cause dangerous side effects, including off-tumor toxicity, cytokine release syndrome, and neurotoxicity. Animal models of CAR-T therapy often fail to predict such adverse events and frequently overestimate the efficacy of the treatment. Nearly all preclinical CAR-T studies have been performed in mice, including syngeneic, xenograft, transgenic, and humanized mouse models. Recently, a few studies have used primate models to mimic clinical side effects better. To date, no single model perfectly recapitulates the human immune system and tumor microenvironment, and some models have revealed CAR-T limitations that were contradicted or missed entirely in other models. Careful model selection based on the primary goals of the study is a crucial step in evaluating CAR-T treatment. Advancements are being made in preclinical models, with the ultimate objective of providing safer, more effective CAR-T therapy to patients.

Multi-Dimensional Quantum Tunneling and Transport Using the Density-Gradient Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biegel, Bryan A.; Yu, Zhi-Ping; Ancona, Mario; Rafferty, Conor; Saini, Subhash (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

We show that quantum effects are likely to significantly degrade the performance of MOSFETs (metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor) as these devices are scaled below 100 nm channel length and 2 nm oxide thickness over the next decade. A general and computationally efficient electronic device model including quantum effects would allow us to monitor and mitigate these effects. Full quantum models are too expensive in multi-dimensions. Using a general but efficient PDE solver called PROPHET, we implemented the density-gradient (DG) quantum correction to the industry-dominant classical drift-diffusion (DD) model. The DG model efficiently includes quantum carrier profile smoothing and tunneling in multi-dimensions and for any electronic device structure. We show that the DG model reduces DD model error from as much as 50% down to a few percent in comparison to thin oxide MOS capacitance measurements. We also show the first DG simulations of gate oxide tunneling and transverse current flow in ultra-scaled MOSFETs. The advantages of rapid model implementation using the PDE solver approach will be demonstrated, as well as the applicability of the DG model to any electronic device structure.

Modeling of propulsive jet plumes--extension of modeling capabilities by utilizing wall curvature effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doerr, S. E.

1984-06-01

Modeling of aerodynamic interference effects of propulsive jet plumes, by using inert gases as substitute propellants, introduces design limits. To extend the range of modeling capabilities, nozzle wall curvature effects may be utilized. Numerical calculations, using the Method of Characteristics, were made and experimental data were taken to evaluate the merits of the theoretical predictions. A bibliography, listing articles that led to the present report, is included.

Finite-rate chemistry effects upon convective and radiative heating of an atmospheric entry vehicle. [reentry aerothermochemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guillermo, P.

1975-01-01

A mathematical model of the aerothermochemical environment along the stagnation line of a planetary return spacecraft using an ablative thermal protection system was developed and solved for conditions typical of atmospheric entry from planetary missions. The model, implemented as a FORTRAN 4 computer program, was designed to predict viscous, reactive and radiative coupled shock layer structure and the resulting body heating rates. The analysis includes flow field coupling with the ablator surface, binary diffusion, coupled line and continuum radiative and equilibrium or finite rate chemistry effects. The gas model used includes thermodynamic, transport, kinetic and radiative properties of air and ablation product species, including 19 chemical species and 16 chemical reactions. Specifically, the impact of nonequilibrium chemistry effects upon stagnation line shock layer structure and body heating rates was investigated.

The Effect of Math Modeling on Student's Emerging Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sokolowski, Andrzej

2015-01-01

This study investigated the effects of applying mathematical modeling on revising students' preconception of the process of optimizing area enclosed by a string of a fixed length. A group of 28 high school pre-calculus students were immersed in modeling activity that included direct measurements, data collecting, and formulating algebraic…

Learning Molecular Behaviour May Improve Student Explanatory Models of the Greenhouse Effect

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Sara E.; Gold, Anne U.

2018-01-01

We assessed undergraduates' representations of the greenhouse effect, based on student-generated concept sketches, before and after a 30-min constructivist lesson. Principal component analysis of features in student sketches revealed seven distinct and coherent explanatory models including a new "Molecular Details" model. After the…

Genotype by environment (climate) interaction improves genomic prediction for production traits in US Holstein cattle.

PubMed

Tiezzi, F; de Los Campos, G; Parker Gaddis, K L; Maltecca, C

2017-03-01

Genotype by environment interaction (G × E) in dairy cattle productive traits has been shown to exist, but current genetic evaluation methods do not take this component into account. As several environmental descriptors (e.g., climate, farming system) are known to vary within the United States, not accounting for the G × E could lead to reranking of bulls and loss in genetic gain. Using test-day records on milk yield, somatic cell score, fat, and protein percentage from all over the United States, we computed within herd-year-season daughter yield deviations for 1,087 Holstein bulls and regressed them on genetic and environmental information to estimate variance components and to assess prediction accuracy. Genomic information was obtained from a 50k SNP marker panel. Environmental effect inputs included herd (160 levels), geographical region (7 levels), geographical location (2 variables), climate information (7 variables), and management conditions of the herds (16 total variables divided in 4 subgroups). For each set of environmental descriptors, environmental, genomic, and G × E components were sequentially fitted. Variance components estimates confirmed the presence of G × E on milk yield, with its effect being larger than main genetic effect and the environmental effect for some models. Conversely, G × E was moderate for somatic cell score and small for milk composition. Genotype by environment interaction, when included, partially eroded the genomic effect (as compared with the models where G × E was not included), suggesting that the genomic variance could at least in part be attributed to G × E not appropriately accounted for. Model predictive ability was assessed using 3 cross-validation schemes (new bulls, incomplete progeny test, and new environmental conditions), and performance was compared with a reference model including only the main genomic effect. In each scenario, at least 1 of the models including G × E was able to perform better than the reference model, although it was not possible to find the overall best-performing model that included the same set of environmental descriptors. In general, the methodology used is promising in accounting for G × E in genomic predictions, but challenges exist in identifying a unique set of covariates capable of describing the entire variety of environments. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Model selection for logistic regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duller, Christine

2012-09-01

Model selection for logistic regression models decides which of some given potential regressors have an effect and hence should be included in the final model. The second interesting question is whether a certain factor is heterogeneous among some subsets, i.e. whether the model should include a random intercept or not. In this paper these questions will be answered with classical as well as with Bayesian methods. The application show some results of recent research projects in medicine and business administration.

Total Ionizing Dose Influence on the Single Event Effect Sensitivity in Samsung 8Gb NAND Flash Memories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmonds, Larry D.; Irom, Farokh; Allen, Gregory R.

2017-08-01

A recent model provides risk estimates for the deprogramming of initially programmed floating gates via prompt charge loss produced by an ionizing radiation environment. The environment can be a mixture of electrons, protons, and heavy ions. The model requires several input parameters. This paper extends the model to include TID effects in the control circuitry by including one additional parameter. Parameters intended to produce conservative risk estimates for the Samsung 8 Gb SLC NAND flash memory are given, subject to some qualifications.

Extending the Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Programme to Include Males in High-Income Countries: A Systematic Review of the Cost-Effectiveness Studies.

PubMed

Ben Hadj Yahia, Mohamed-Béchir; Jouin-Bortolotti, Anaïs; Dervaux, Benoît

2015-08-01

Giving the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to females has been shown to be cost-effective in most countries. The epidemiological evidence and economic burden of HPV-related diseases have gradually been shown to be gender neutral. Randomized clinical trials report high efficacy, immunogenicity and safety of the HPV vaccine in males aged 16-26 years. Some pioneering countries extended their HPV vaccination programme to include males, regardless of the cost-effectiveness analysis results. Nevertheless, decision makers need evidence provided by modelling and economic studies to justify the funding of mass vaccination. This systematic review aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of extending the HPV vaccination programme to include males living in high-income countries. A systematic review of the cost-effectiveness analyses of HPV vaccination in males was performed. Data were extracted and analysed using a checklist adapted from the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards Statement. Seventeen studies and 12 underlying mathematical models were identified. Model filiation showed evolution in time from aggregate models (static and dynamic) to individual-based models. When considering the health outcomes HPV vaccines are licensed for, regardless of modelling approaches and assumptions, extending vaccinations to males is rarely found to be cost-effective in heterosexual populations. Cost-effectiveness ratios become more attractive when all HPV-related diseases are considered and when vaccine coverage in females is below 40%. Targeted vaccination of men who have sex with men (MSM) seems to be the best cost-effectiveness option. The feasibility of this strategy is still an open question, since early identification of this specific population remains difficult.

In-situ biogas upgrading process: Modeling and simulations aspects.

PubMed

Lovato, Giovanna; Alvarado-Morales, Merlin; Kovalovszki, Adam; Peprah, Maria; Kougias, Panagiotis G; Rodrigues, José Alberto Domingues; Angelidaki, Irini

2017-12-01

Biogas upgrading processes by in-situ hydrogen (H 2 ) injection are still challenging and could benefit from a mathematical model to predict system performance. Therefore, a previous model on anaerobic digestion was updated and expanded to include the effect of H 2 injection into the liquid phase of a fermenter with the aim of modeling and simulating these processes. This was done by including hydrogenotrophic methanogen kinetics for H 2 consumption and inhibition effect on the acetogenic steps. Special attention was paid to gas to liquid transfer of H 2 . The final model was successfully validated considering a set of Case Studies. Biogas composition and H 2 utilization were correctly predicted, with overall deviation below 10% compared to experimental measurements. Parameter sensitivity analysis revealed that the model is highly sensitive to the H 2 injection rate and mass transfer coefficient. The model developed is an effective tool for predicting process performance in scenarios with biogas upgrading. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cometary atmospheres: Modeling the spatial distribution of observed neutral radicals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Combi, M. R.

1985-01-01

Progress on modeling the spatial distributions of cometary radicals is described. The Monte Carlo particle-trajectory model was generalized to include the full time dependencies of initial comet expansion velocities, nucleus vaporization rates, photochemical lifetimes and photon emission rates which enter the problem through the comet's changing heliocentric distance and velocity. The effect of multiple collisions in the transition zone from collisional coupling to true free flow were also included. Currently available observations of the spatial distributions of the neutral radicals, as well as the latest available photochemical data were re-evaluated. Preliminary exploratory model results testing the effects of various processes on observable spatial distributions are also discussed.

Numerical modeling of laser assisted tape winding process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaami, Amin; Baran, Ismet; Akkerman, Remko

2017-10-01

Laser assisted tape winding (LATW) has become more and more popular way of producing new thermoplastic products such as ultra-deep sea water riser, gas tanks, structural parts for aerospace applications. Predicting the temperature in LATW has been a source of great interest since the temperature at nip-point plays a key role for mechanical interface performance. Modeling the LATW process includes several challenges such as the interaction of optics and heat transfer. In the current study, numerical modeling of the optical behavior of laser radiation on circular surfaces is investigated based on a ray tracing and non-specular reflection model. The non-specular reflection is implemented considering the anisotropic reflective behavior of the fiber-reinforced thermoplastic tape using a bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). The proposed model in the present paper includes a three-dimensional circular geometry, in which the effects of reflection from different ranges of the circular surface as well as effect of process parameters on temperature distribution are studied. The heat transfer model is constructed using a fully implicit method. The effect of process parameters on the nip-point temperature is examined. Furthermore, several laser distributions including Gaussian and linear are examined which has not been considered in literature up to now.

Effects of artificial gravity on the cardiovascular system: Computational approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz Artiles, Ana; Heldt, Thomas; Young, Laurence R.

2016-09-01

Artificial gravity has been suggested as a multisystem countermeasure against the negative effects of weightlessness. However, many questions regarding the appropriate configuration are still unanswered, including optimal g-level, angular velocity, gravity gradient, and exercise protocol. Mathematical models can provide unique insight into these questions, particularly when experimental data is very expensive or difficult to obtain. In this research effort, a cardiovascular lumped-parameter model is developed to simulate the short-term transient hemodynamic response to artificial gravity exposure combined with ergometer exercise, using a bicycle mounted on a short-radius centrifuge. The model is thoroughly described and preliminary simulations are conducted to show the model capabilities and potential applications. The model consists of 21 compartments (including systemic circulation, pulmonary circulation, and a cardiac model), and it also includes the rapid cardiovascular control systems (arterial baroreflex and cardiopulmonary reflex). In addition, the pressure gradient resulting from short-radius centrifugation is captured in the model using hydrostatic pressure sources located at each compartment. The model also includes the cardiovascular effects resulting from exercise such as the muscle pump effect. An initial set of artificial gravity simulations were implemented using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Compact-Radius Centrifuge (CRC) configuration. Three centripetal acceleration (artificial gravity) levels were chosen: 1 g, 1.2 g, and 1.4 g, referenced to the subject's feet. Each simulation lasted 15.5 minutes and included a baseline period, the spin-up process, the ergometer exercise period (5 minutes of ergometer exercise at 30 W with a simulated pedal cadence of 60 RPM), and the spin-down process. Results showed that the cardiovascular model is able to predict the cardiovascular dynamics during gravity changes, as well as the expected steady-state cardiovascular behavior during sustained artificial gravity and exercise. Further validation of the model was performed using experimental data from the combined exercise and artificial gravity experiments conducted on the MIT CRC, and these results will be presented separately in future publications. This unique computational framework can be used to simulate a variety of centrifuge configuration and exercise intensities to improve understanding and inform decisions about future implementation of artificial gravity in space.

Comparison of mixed effects models of antimicrobial resistance metrics of livestock and poultry Salmonella isolates from a national monitoring system.

PubMed

Bjork, K E; Kopral, C A; Wagner, B A; Dargatz, D A

2015-12-01

Antimicrobial use in agriculture is considered a pathway for the selection and dissemination of resistance determinants among animal and human populations. From 1997 through 2003 the U.S. National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) tested clinical Salmonella isolates from multiple animal and environmental sources throughout the United States for resistance to panels of 16-19 antimicrobials. In this study we applied two mixed effects models, the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) and accelerated failure time frailty (AFT-frailty) model, to susceptible/resistant and interval-censored minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) metrics, respectively, from Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhimurium isolates from livestock and poultry. Objectives were to compare characteristics of the two models and to examine the effects of time, species, and multidrug resistance (MDR) on the resistance of isolates to individual antimicrobials, as revealed by the models. Fixed effects were year of sample collection, isolate source species and MDR indicators; laboratory study site was included as a random effect. MDR indicators were significant for every antimicrobial and were dominant effects in multivariable models. Temporal trends and source species influences varied by antimicrobial. In GLMMs, the intra-class correlation coefficient ranged up to 0.8, indicating that the proportion of variance accounted for by laboratory study site could be high. AFT models tended to be more sensitive, detecting more curvilinear temporal trends and species differences; however, high levels of left- or right-censoring made some models unstable and results uninterpretable. Results from GLMMs may be biased by cutoff criteria used to collapse MIC data into binary categories, and may miss signaling important trends or shifts if the series of antibiotic dilutions tested does not span a resistance threshold. Our findings demonstrate the challenges of measuring the AMR ecosystem and the complexity of interacting factors, and have implications for future monitoring. We include suggestions for future data collection and analyses, including alternative modeling approaches. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Unsteady free surface flow in porous media: One-dimensional model equations including vertical effects and seepage face

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Nucci, Carmine

2018-05-01

This note examines the two-dimensional unsteady isothermal free surface flow of an incompressible fluid in a non-deformable, homogeneous, isotropic, and saturated porous medium (with zero recharge and neglecting capillary effects). Coupling a Boussinesq-type model for nonlinear water waves with Darcy's law, the two-dimensional flow problem is solved using one-dimensional model equations including vertical effects and seepage face. In order to take into account the seepage face development, the system equations (given by the continuity and momentum equations) are completed by an integral relation (deduced from the Cauchy theorem). After testing the model against data sets available in the literature, some numerical simulations, concerning the unsteady flow through a rectangular dam (with an impermeable horizontal bottom), are presented and discussed.

Cost Effectiveness of HPV Vaccination: A Systematic Review of Modelling Approaches.

PubMed

Pink, Joshua; Parker, Ben; Petrou, Stavros

2016-09-01

A large number of economic evaluations have been published that assess alternative possible human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Understanding differences in the modelling methodologies used in these studies is important to assess the accuracy, comparability and generalisability of their results. The aim of this review was to identify published economic models of HPV vaccination programmes and understand how characteristics of these studies vary by geographical area, date of publication and the policy question being addressed. We performed literature searches in MEDLINE, Embase, Econlit, The Health Economic Evaluations Database (HEED) and The National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED). From the 1189 unique studies retrieved, 65 studies were included for data extraction based on a priori eligibility criteria. Two authors independently reviewed these articles to determine eligibility for the final review. Data were extracted from the selected studies, focussing on six key structural or methodological themes covering different aspects of the model(s) used that may influence cost-effectiveness results. More recently published studies tend to model a larger number of HPV strains, and include a larger number of HPV-associated diseases. Studies published in Europe and North America also tend to include a larger number of diseases and are more likely to incorporate the impact of herd immunity and to use more realistic assumptions around vaccine efficacy and coverage. Studies based on previous models often do not include sufficiently robust justifications as to the applicability of the adapted model to the new context. The considerable between-study heterogeneity in economic evaluations of HPV vaccination programmes makes comparisons between studies difficult, as observed differences in cost effectiveness may be driven by differences in methodology as well as by variations in funding and delivery models and estimates of model parameters. Studies should consistently report not only all simplifying assumptions made but also the estimated impact of these assumptions on the cost-effectiveness results.

Assessment of glycemic response to an oral glucokinase activator in a proof of concept study: application of a semi-mechanistic, integrated glucose-insulin-glucagon model.

PubMed

Schneck, Karen B; Zhang, Xin; Bauer, Robert; Karlsson, Mats O; Sinha, Vikram P

2013-02-01

A proof of concept study was conducted to investigate the safety and tolerability of a novel oral glucokinase activator, LY2599506, during multiple dose administration to healthy volunteers and subjects with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). To analyze the study data, a previously established semi-mechanistic integrated glucose-insulin model was extended to include characterization of glucagon dynamics. The model captured endogenous glucose and insulin dynamics, including the amplifying effects of glucose on insulin production and of insulin on glucose elimination, as well as the inhibitory influence of glucose and insulin on hepatic glucose production. The hepatic glucose production in the model was increased by glucagon and glucagon production was inhibited by elevated glucose concentrations. The contribution of exogenous factors to glycemic response, such as ingestion of carbohydrates in meals, was also included in the model. The effect of LY2599506 on glucose homeostasis in subjects with T2DM was investigated by linking a one-compartment, pharmacokinetic model to the semi-mechanistic, integrated glucose-insulin-glucagon system. Drug effects were included on pancreatic insulin secretion and hepatic glucose production. The relationships between LY2599506, glucose, insulin, and glucagon concentrations were described quantitatively and consequently, the improved understanding of the drug-response system could be used to support further clinical study planning during drug development, such as dose selection.

Evaluation of a post-fire tree mortality model for western US conifers

Treesearch

Sharon M. Hood; Charles W McHugh; Kevin C. Ryan; Elizabeth Reinhardt; Sheri L. Smith

2007-01-01

Accurately predicting fire-caused mortality is essential to developing prescribed fire burn plans and post-fire salvage marking guidelines. The mortality model included in the commonly used USA fire behaviour and effects models, the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM), BehavePlus, and the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS), has not...

A Critique of Selected References on Educational Cost Effectiveness with a Resource - Utility Model To Improve Resource Allocation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cleckner, John

The author reviews five cost-effectiveness basic models including log-log correlational, general utility theory, simultaneous equations, nonlinear theoretical, and feedback. Several suggestions are made to improve the models and increase the domain of problems that can be considered by the models. In the second part of the paper, the author…

Bubbles in Sediments

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-09-30

modeled as either an effective fluid, effective viscoelastic solid, or a saturated poroelastic medium. The analysis included only the breathing mode...separated for each model . Finally, if a sediment is modeled by Biot theory, which describes wave propagation in a saturated poroelastic medium, then two...theory to sediment acoustics . The predicted resonance behavior under each model is distinct, so an optical extinction measurement may provide an

A New Unsteady Model for Dense Cloud Cavitation in Cryogenic Fluids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hosangadi, Ashvin; Ahuja, Vineet

2005-01-01

Contents include the following: Background on thermal effects in cavitation. Physical properties of hydrogen. Multi-phase cavitation with thermal effect. Solution procedure. Cavitation model overview. Cavitation source terms. New cavitation model. Source term for bubble growth. One equation les model. Unsteady ogive simulations: liquid nitrogen. Unsteady incompressible flow in a pipe. Time averaged cavity length for NACA15 flowfield.

Changing Pre-Service Mathematics Teachers' Beliefs about Using Computers for Teaching and Learning Mathematics: The Effect of Three Different Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karatas, Ilhan

2014-01-01

This study examines the effect of three different computer integration models on pre-service mathematics teachers' beliefs about using computers in mathematics education. Participants included 104 pre-service mathematics teachers (36 second-year students in the Computer Oriented Model group, 35 fourth-year students in the Integrated Model (IM)…

Comparing the Effectiveness of Two Models of Initial Teacher Education Programmes in Israel: Concurrent vs. Consecutive

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zuzovsky, Ruth; Donitsa-Schmidt, Smadar

2017-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to examine the effectiveness of two common models of initial teacher education programmes that are prevalent in many countries, including Israel. The two are: the concurrent model, in which disciplinary studies and pedagogical studies are integrated and taught at the same time; and the consecutive model, which…

Model Course of Study for Agricultural Programs in Iowa. Preparing for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Robert A.; And Others

Each section contained in this packet is necessary for designing an effective program of agriculture education. The curriculum guide that is developed from this model should include the same sections. The model includes: (1) community description; (2) school description; (3) goals and objectives of education in agriculture; (4) evaluation policy;…

A Quantum Theoretical Explanation for Probability Judgment Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Busemeyer, Jerome R.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.; Franco, Riccardo; Trueblood, Jennifer S.

2011-01-01

A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging effects, unpacking effects, and order effects on inference. On the one hand, quantum theory is similar to other categorization and memory models of cognition in that it relies on vector…

Effect of Differential Item Functioning on Test Equating

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kabasakal, Kübra Atalay; Kelecioglu, Hülya

2015-01-01

This study examines the effect of differential item functioning (DIF) items on test equating through multilevel item response models (MIRMs) and traditional IRMs. The performances of three different equating models were investigated under 24 different simulation conditions, and the variables whose effects were examined included sample size, test…

Volcanism-Climate Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walter, Louis S. (Editor); Desilva, Shanaka (Editor)

1991-01-01

The range of disciplines in the study of volcanism-climate interactions includes paleoclimate, volcanology, petrology, tectonics, cloud physics and chemistry, and climate and radiation modeling. Questions encountered in understanding the interactions include: the source and evolution of sulfur and sulfur-gaseous species in magmas; their entrainment in volcanic plumes and injection into the stratosphere; their dissipation rates; and their radiative effects. Other issues include modeling and measuring regional and global effects of such large, dense clouds. A broad-range plan of research designed to answer these questions was defined. The plan includes observations of volcanoes, rocks, trees, and ice cores, as well as satellite and aircraft observations of erupting volcanoes and resulting lumes and clouds.

Modeling Aerosol Microphysical and Radiative Effects on Clouds and Implications for the Effects of Black and Brown Carbon on Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ten Hoeve, J. E.; Jacobson, M. Z.

2010-12-01

Satellite observational studies have found an increase in cloud fraction (CF) and cloud optical depth (COD) with increasing aerosol optical depth (AOD) followed by a decreasing CF/COD with increasing AOD at higher AODs over the Amazon Basin. The shape of this curve is similar to that of a boomerang, and thus the effect has been dubbed the "boomerang effect.” The increase in CF/COD with increasing AOD at low AODs is ascribed to the first and second indirect effects and is referred to as a microphysical effect of aerosols on clouds. The decrease in CF/COD at higher AODs is ascribed to enhanced warming of clouds due to absorbing aerosols, either as inclusions in drops or interstitially between drops. This is referred to as a radiative effect. To date, the interaction of the microphysical and radiative effects has not been simulated with a regional or global computer model. Here, we simulate the boomerang effect with the nested global-through-urban climate, air pollution, weather forecast model, GATOR-GCMOM, for the Amazon biomass burning season of 2006. We also compare the model with an extensive set of data, including satellite data from MODIS, TRMM, and CALIPSO, in situ surface observations, upper-air data, and AERONET data. Biomass burning emissions are obtained from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv2), and are combined with MODIS land cover data along with biomass burning emission factors. A high-resolution domain, nested within three increasingly coarser domains, is employed over the heaviest biomass burning region within the arc of deforestation. Modeled trends in cloud properties with aerosol loading compare well with MODIS observed trends, allowing causation of these observed correlations, including of the boomerang effect, to be determined by model results. The impact of aerosols on various cloud parameters, such as cloud optical thickness, cloud fraction, cloud liquid water/ice content, and precipitation, are shown through differences between simulations that include and exclude biomass burning emissions. This study suggests by cause and effect through numerical modeling that aerosol radiative effects counteract microphysical effects at high AODs, a result previously shown by correlation alone. As such, computer models that exclude treatment of cloud radiative effects are likely to overpredict the indirect effects of aerosols on clouds and underestimate the warming due to aerosols containing black carbon.

Let's Go Off the Grid: Subsurface Flow Modeling With Analytic Elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, M.

2017-12-01

Subsurface flow modeling with analytic elements has the major advantage that no grid or time stepping are needed. Analytic element formulations exist for steady state and transient flow in layered aquifers and unsaturated flow in the vadose zone. Analytic element models are vector-based and consist of points, lines and curves that represent specific features in the subsurface. Recent advances allow for the simulation of partially penetrating wells and multi-aquifer wells, including skin effect and wellbore storage, horizontal wells of poly-line shape including skin effect, sharp changes in subsurface properties, and surface water features with leaky beds. Input files for analytic element models are simple, short and readable, and can easily be generated from, for example, GIS databases. Future plans include the incorporation of analytic element in parts of grid-based models where additional detail is needed. This presentation will give an overview of advanced flow features that can be modeled, many of which are implemented in free and open-source software.

Failure dynamics of the global risk network.

PubMed

Szymanski, Boleslaw K; Lin, Xin; Asztalos, Andrea; Sreenivasan, Sameet

2015-06-18

Risks threatening modern societies form an intricately interconnected network that often underlies crisis situations. Yet, little is known about how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. Here we present an approach in which expert assessments of likelihoods and influence of risks underlie a quantitative model of the global risk network dynamics. The modeled risks range from environmental to economic and technological, and include difficult to quantify risks, such as geo-political and social. Using the maximum likelihood estimation, we find the optimal model parameters and demonstrate that the model including network effects significantly outperforms the others, uncovering full value of the expert collected data. We analyze the model dynamics and study its resilience and stability. Our findings include such risk properties as contagion potential, persistence, roles in cascades of failures and the identity of risks most detrimental to system stability. The model provides quantitative means for measuring the adverse effects of risk interdependencies and the materialization of risks in the network.

Geosynchronous platform definition study. Volume 4, Part 1: Traffic analysis and system requirements for the baseline traffic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

The traffic analyses and system requirements data generated in the study resulted in the development of two traffic models; the baseline traffic model and the new traffic model. The baseline traffic model provides traceability between the numbers and types of geosynchronous missions considered in the study and the entire spectrum of missions foreseen in the total national space program. The information presented pertaining to the baseline traffic model includes: (1) definition of the baseline traffic model, including identification of specific geosynchronous missions and their payload delivery schedules through 1990; (2) Satellite location criteria, including the resulting distribution of the satellite population; (3) Geosynchronous orbit saturation analyses, including the effects of satellite physical proximity and potential electromagnetic interference; and (4) Platform system requirements analyses, including satellite and mission equipment descriptions, the options and limitations in grouping satellites, and on-orbit servicing criteria (both remotely controlled and man-attended).

Parameter estimation for terrain modeling from gradient data. [navigation system for Martian rover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dangelo, K. R.

1974-01-01

A method is developed for modeling terrain surfaces for use on an unmanned Martian roving vehicle. The modeling procedure employs a two-step process which uses gradient as well as height data in order to improve the accuracy of the model's gradient. Least square approximation is used in order to stochastically determine the parameters which describe the modeled surface. A complete error analysis of the modeling procedure is included which determines the effect of instrumental measurement errors on the model's accuracy. Computer simulation is used as a means of testing the entire modeling process which includes the acquisition of data points, the two-step modeling process and the error analysis. Finally, to illustrate the procedure, a numerical example is included.

Comparison of the Effects of Video Modeling with Narration vs. Video Modeling on the Functional Skill Acquisition of Adolescents with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Molly; Ayres, Kevin; Mechling, Linda; Smith, Katie

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of two forms of video modeling: video modeling that includes narration (VMN) and video models without narration (VM) on skill acquisition of four adolescent boys with a primary diagnosis of autism enrolled in an Extended School Year (ESY) summer program. An adapted alternating treatment design…

Modeling the effects of forest management on in situ and ex situ longleaf pine forest carbon stocks

Treesearch

C.A. Gonzalez-Benecke; L.J. Samuelson; T.A. Martin; W.P. Cropper Jr; Kurt Johnsen; T.A. Stokes; John Butnor; P.H. Anderson

2015-01-01

Assessment of forest carbon storage dynamics requires a variety of techniques including simulation models. We developed a hybrid model to assess the effects of silvicultural management systems on carbon (C) budgets in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) plantations in the southeastern U.S. To simulate in situ C pools, the model integrates a growth and yield model...

Effects of electrojet turbulence on a magnetosphere-ionosphere simulation of a geomagnetic storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiltberger, M.; Merkin, V.; Zhang, B.; Toffoletto, F.; Oppenheim, M.; Wang, W.; Lyon, J. G.; Liu, J.; Dimant, Y.; Sitnov, M. I.; Stephens, G. K.

2017-05-01

Ionospheric conductance plays an important role in regulating the response of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system to solar wind driving. Typically, models of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling include changes to ionospheric conductance driven by extreme ultraviolet ionization and electron precipitation. This paper shows that effects driven by the Farley-Buneman instability can also create significant enhancements in the ionospheric conductance, with substantial impacts on geospace. We have implemented a method of including electrojet turbulence (ET) effects into the ionospheric conductance model utilized within geospace simulations. Our particular implementation is tested with simulations of the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry global magnetosphere model coupled with the Rice Convection Model of the inner magnetosphere. We examine the impact of including ET-modified conductances in a case study of the geomagnetic storm of 17 March 2013. Simulations with ET show a 13% reduction in the cross polar cap potential at the beginning of the storm and up to 20% increases in the Pedersen and Hall conductance. These simulation results show better agreement with Defense Meteorological Satellite Program observations, including capturing features of subauroral polarization streams. The field-aligned current (FAC) patterns show little differences during the peak of storm and agree well with Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) reconstructions. Typically, the simulated FAC densities are stronger and at slightly higher latitudes than shown by AMPERE. The inner magnetospheric pressures derived from Tsyganenko-Sitnov empirical magnetic field model show that the inclusion of the ET effects increases the peak pressure and brings the results into better agreement with the empirical model.

When the test of mediation is more powerful than the test of the total effect.

PubMed

O'Rourke, Holly P; MacKinnon, David P

2015-06-01

Although previous research has studied power in mediation models, the extent to which the inclusion of a mediator will increase power has not been investigated. To address this deficit, in a first study we compared the analytical power values of the mediated effect and the total effect in a single-mediator model, to identify the situations in which the inclusion of one mediator increased statistical power. The results from this first study indicated that including a mediator increased statistical power in small samples with large coefficients and in large samples with small coefficients, and when coefficients were nonzero and equal across models. Next, we identified conditions under which power was greater for the test of the total mediated effect than for the test of the total effect in the parallel two-mediator model. These results indicated that including two mediators increased power in small samples with large coefficients and in large samples with small coefficients, the same pattern of results that had been found in the first study. Finally, we assessed the analytical power for a sequential (three-path) two-mediator model and compared the power to detect the three-path mediated effect to the power to detect both the test of the total effect and the test of the mediated effect for the single-mediator model. The results indicated that the three-path mediated effect had more power than the mediated effect from the single-mediator model and the test of the total effect. Practical implications of these results for researchers are then discussed.

A reanalysis of a behavioral intervention to prevent incident HIV infections: Including indirect effects in modeling outcomes of Project EXPLORE

PubMed Central

Eaton, Lisa A.; Kalichman, Seth C.; Kenny, David A.; Harel, Ofer

2013-01-01

Background Project EXPLORE -- a large-scale, behavioral intervention tested among men who have sex with men (MSM) at-risk for HIV infection --was generally deemed as ineffective in reducing HIV incidence. Using novel and more precise data analytic techniques we reanalyzed Project EXPLORE by including both direct and indirect paths of intervention effects. Methods Data from 4,296 HIV negative MSM who participated in Project EXPLORE, which included ten sessions of behavioral risk reduction counseling completed from 1999-2005, were included in the analysis. We reanalyzed the data to include parameters that estimate the overtime effects of the intervention on unprotected anal sex and the over-time effects of the intervention on HIV status mediated by unprotected anal sex simultaneously in a single model. Results We found the indirect effect of intervention on HIV infection through unprotected anal sex to be statistically significant up through 12 months post-intervention, OR=.83, 95% CI=.72-.95. Furthermore, the intervention significantly reduced unprotected anal sex up through 18 months post-intervention, OR=.79, 95% CI=.63-.99. Discussion Our results reveal effects not tested in the original model that offer new insight into the effectiveness of a behavioral intervention for reducing HIV incidence. Project EXPLORE demonstrated that when tested against an evidence-based, effective control condition can result in reductions in rates of HIV acquisition at one year follow-up. Findings highlight the critical role of addressing behavioral risk reduction counseling in HIV prevention. PMID:23245226

Models and techniques for evaluating the effectiveness of aircraft computing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, J. F.

1978-01-01

Progress in the development of system models and techniques for the formulation and evaluation of aircraft computer system effectiveness is reported. Topics covered include: analysis of functional dependence: a prototype software package, METAPHOR, developed to aid the evaluation of performability; and a comprehensive performability modeling and evaluation exercise involving the SIFT computer.

Electrode Models for Electric Current Computed Tomography

PubMed Central

CHENG, KUO-SHENG; ISAACSON, DAVID; NEWELL, J. C.; GISSER, DAVID G.

2016-01-01

This paper develops a mathematical model for the physical properties of electrodes suitable for use in electric current computed tomography (ECCT). The model includes the effects of discretization, shunt, and contact impedance. The complete model was validated by experiment. Bath resistivities of 284.0, 139.7, 62.3, 29.5 Ω · cm were studied. Values of “effective” contact impedance z used in the numerical approximations were 58.0, 35.0, 15.0, and 7.5 Ω · cm2, respectively. Agreement between the calculated and experimentally measured values was excellent throughout the range of bath conductivities studied. It is desirable in electrical impedance imaging systems to model the observed voltages to the same precision as they are measured in order to be able to make the highest resolution reconstructions of the internal conductivity that the measurement precision allows. The complete electrode model, which includes the effects of discretization of the current pattern, the shunt effect due to the highly conductive electrode material, and the effect of an “effective” contact impedance, allows calculation of the voltages due to any current pattern applied to a homogeneous resistivity field. PMID:2777280

Random regression models using different functions to model milk flow in dairy cows.

PubMed

Laureano, M M M; Bignardi, A B; El Faro, L; Cardoso, V L; Tonhati, H; Albuquerque, L G

2014-09-12

We analyzed 75,555 test-day milk flow records from 2175 primiparous Holstein cows that calved between 1997 and 2005. Milk flow was obtained by dividing the mean milk yield (kg) of the 3 daily milking by the total milking time (min) and was expressed as kg/min. Milk flow was grouped into 43 weekly classes. The analyses were performed using a single-trait Random Regression Models that included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. In addition, the contemporary group and linear and quadratic effects of cow age at calving were included as fixed effects. Fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial of days in milk was used to model the mean trend in milk flow. The additive genetic and permanent environmental covariance functions were estimated using random regression Legendre polynomials and B-spline functions of days in milk. The model using a third-order Legendre polynomial for additive genetic effects and a sixth-order polynomial for permanent environmental effects, which contained 7 residual classes, proved to be the most adequate to describe variations in milk flow, and was also the most parsimonious. The heritability in milk flow estimated by the most parsimonious model was of moderate to high magnitude.

Development and validation of an extensive growth and growth boundary model for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. in seafood and meat products.

PubMed

Mejlholm, Ole; Dalgaard, Paw

2013-10-15

A new and extensive growth and growth boundary model for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. was developed and validated for processed and unprocessed products of seafood and meat. The new model was developed by refitting and expanding an existing cardinal parameter model for growth and the growth boundary of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) in processed seafood (O. Mejlholm and P. Dalgaard, J. Food Prot. 70. 2485-2497, 2007). Initially, to estimate values for the maximum specific growth rate at the reference temperature of 25 °C (μref) and the theoretical minimum temperature that prevents growth of psychrotolerant LAB (T(min)), the existing LAB model was refitted to data from experiments with seafood and meat products reported not to include nitrite or any of the four organic acids evaluated in the present study. Next, dimensionless terms modelling the antimicrobial effect of nitrite, and acetic, benzoic, citric and sorbic acids on growth of Lactobacillus sakei were added to the refitted model, together with minimum inhibitory concentrations determined for the five environmental parameters. The new model including the effect of 12 environmental parameters, as well as their interactive effects, was successfully validated using 229 growth rates (μ(max) values) for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. in seafood and meat products. Average bias and accuracy factor values of 1.08 and 1.27, respectively, were obtained when observed and predicted μ(max) values of psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. were compared. Thus, on average μ(max) values were only overestimated by 8%. The performance of the new model was equally good for seafood and meat products, and the importance of including the effect of acetic, benzoic, citric and sorbic acids and to a lesser extent nitrite in order to accurately predict growth of psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. was clearly demonstrated. The new model can be used to predict growth of psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. in seafood and meat products e.g. prediction of the time to a critical cell concentration of bacteria is considered useful for establishing the shelf life. In addition, the high number of environmental parameters included in the new model makes it flexible and suitable for product development as the effect of substituting one combination of preservatives with another can be predicted. In general, the performance of the new model was unacceptable for other types of LAB including Carnobacterium spp., Leuconostoc spp. and Weissella spp. © 2013.

Assessing medication effects in the MTA study using neuropsychological outcomes.

PubMed

Epstein, Jeffery N; Conners, C Keith; Hervey, Aaron S; Tonev, Simon T; Arnold, L Eugene; Abikoff, Howard B; Elliott, Glen; Greenhill, Laurence L; Hechtman, Lily; Hoagwood, Kimberly; Hinshaw, Stephen P; Hoza, Betsy; Jensen, Peter S; March, John S; Newcorn, Jeffrey H; Pelham, William E; Severe, Joanne B; Swanson, James M; Wells, Karen; Vitiello, Benedetto; Wigal, Timothy

2006-05-01

While studies have increasingly investigated deficits in reaction time (RT) and RT variability in children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), few studies have examined the effects of stimulant medication on these important neuropsychological outcome measures. 316 children who participated in the Multimodal Treatment Study of Children with ADHD (MTA) completed the Conners' Continuous Performance Test (CPT) at the 24-month assessment point. Outcome measures included standard CPT outcomes (e.g., errors of commission, mean hit reaction time (RT)) and RT indicators derived from an Ex-Gaussian distributional model (i.e., mu, sigma, and tau). Analyses revealed significant effects of medication across all neuropsychological outcome measures. Results on the Ex-Gaussian outcome measures revealed that stimulant medication slows RT and reduces RT variability. This demonstrates the importance of including analytic strategies that can accurately model the actual distributional pattern, including the positive skew. Further, the results of the study relate to several theoretical models of ADHD.

Performance of nonlinear mixed effects models in the presence of informative dropout.

PubMed

Björnsson, Marcus A; Friberg, Lena E; Simonsson, Ulrika S H

2015-01-01

Informative dropout can lead to bias in statistical analyses if not handled appropriately. The objective of this simulation study was to investigate the performance of nonlinear mixed effects models with regard to bias and precision, with and without handling informative dropout. An efficacy variable and dropout depending on that efficacy variable were simulated and model parameters were reestimated, with or without including a dropout model. The Laplace and FOCE-I estimation methods in NONMEM 7, and the stochastic simulations and estimations (SSE) functionality in PsN, were used in the analysis. For the base scenario, bias was low, less than 5% for all fixed effects parameters, when a dropout model was used in the estimations. When a dropout model was not included, bias increased up to 8% for the Laplace method and up to 21% if the FOCE-I estimation method was applied. The bias increased with decreasing number of observations per subject, increasing placebo effect and increasing dropout rate, but was relatively unaffected by the number of subjects in the study. This study illustrates that ignoring informative dropout can lead to biased parameters in nonlinear mixed effects modeling, but even in cases with few observations or high dropout rate, the bias is relatively low and only translates into small effects on predictions of the underlying effect variable. A dropout model is, however, crucial in the presence of informative dropout in order to make realistic simulations of trial outcomes.

Surface potential based modeling of charge, current, and capacitances in DGTFET including mobile channel charge and ambipolar behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Prateek; Yadav, Chandan; Agarwal, Amit; Chauhan, Yogesh Singh

2017-08-01

We present a surface potential based analytical model for double gate tunnel field effect transistor (DGTFET) for the current, terminal charges, and terminal capacitances. The model accounts for the effect of the mobile charge in the channel and captures the device physics in depletion as well as in the strong inversion regime. The narrowing of the tunnel barrier in the presence of mobile charges in the channel is incorporated via modeling of the inverse decay length, which is constant under channel depletion condition and bias dependent under inversion condition. To capture the ambipolar current behavior in the model, tunneling at the drain junction is also included. The proposed model is validated against TCAD simulation data and it shows close match with the simulation data.

Near field interaction of microwave signals with a bounded plasma plume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ling, Hao; Hallock, Gary A.; Kim, Hyeongdong; Birkner, Bjorn

1991-01-01

The objective was to study the effect of the arcjet thruster plume on the performance of an onboard satellite reflector antenna. A project summary is presented along with sections on plasma and electromagnetic modeling. The plasma modeling section includes the following topics: wave propagation; plasma analysis; plume electron density model; and the proposed experimental program. The section on electromagnetic modeling includes new developments in ray modeling and the validation of three dimensional ray results.

A model for proton-irradiated GaAs solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, J. W.; Walker, G. H.; Outlaw, R. A.; Stock, L. V.

1982-01-01

A simple model for proton radiation damage in GaAs heteroface solar cells is developed. The model includes the effects of spatial nonuniformity of low energy proton damage. Agreement between the model and experimental proton damage data for GaAs heteroface solar cells is satisfactory. An extension of the model to include angular isotropy, as is appropriate for protons in space, is shown to result in significantly less cell damage than for normal proton incidence.

Phase space effects on fast ion transport modeling in tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podesta, Mario

2015-11-01

Simulations of burning plasmas require a consistent treatment of energetic particles (EP), possibly including the effects of instabilities. Reduced EP transport models are emerging as an effective tool to account for those effects in long time-scale simulations. Available models essentially differ for the main transport drive, which is associated to gradients in real or phase space. It is crucial to assess to what extent those different assumptions affect computed quantities such as EP profile, Neutral Beam (NB) driven current and energy/momentum transfer to the thermal populations. These issues are investigated through a kick model, which includes modifications of the EP distribution by instabilities in real and velocity space. TRANSP simulations including the kick model are applied to NB-heated NSTX discharges featuring unstable toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes (TAEs). Results show that TAEs mainly affect fast ions with large parallel velocity, i.e. the most effective for NB current drive. Other portions of the EP distribution are nearly unperturbed. Core NB driven current decreases by 10-30%, with even larger relative changes toward the plasma edge. When TAEs evolve in so-called avalanches, the model reproduces measured drops of ~ 10% in the neutron rate. Consistently with previous results, the drop is caused by both EP energy loss and EP redistribution. These results are compared to those from a simple diffusive model and a ``critical gradient'' model, which postulates radial EP gradient as the only transport drive. The importance of EP velocity space modifications is discussed in terms of accuracy of the predictions, with emphasis on Neutral Beam driven current. Work supported by U.S. DOE Contract DE-AC02-09CH11466.

Random regression analyses using B-splines functions to model growth from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle.

PubMed

Baldi, F; Alencar, M M; Albuquerque, L G

2010-12-01

The objective of this work was to estimate covariance functions using random regression models on B-splines functions of animal age, for weights from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle. Data comprised 49,011 records on 2435 females. The model of analysis included fixed effects of contemporary groups, age of dam as quadratic covariable and the population mean trend taken into account by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age. Residual variances were modelled through a step function with four classes. The direct and maternal additive genetic effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects were included as random effects in the model. A total of seventeen analyses, considering linear, quadratic and cubic B-splines functions and up to seven knots, were carried out. B-spline functions of the same order were considered for all random effects. Random regression models on B-splines functions were compared to a random regression model on Legendre polynomials and with a multitrait model. Results from different models of analyses were compared using the REML form of the Akaike Information criterion and Schwarz' Bayesian Information criterion. In addition, the variance components and genetic parameters estimated for each random regression model were also used as criteria to choose the most adequate model to describe the covariance structure of the data. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data. Random regression models using B-spline functions as base functions fitted the data better than Legendre polynomials, especially at mature ages, but higher number of parameters need to be estimated with B-splines functions. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Results from using a new dyadic-dependence model to analyze sociocentric physician networks.

PubMed

Paul, Sudeshna; Keating, Nancy L; Landon, Bruce E; O'Malley, A James

2014-09-01

Professional physician networks can potentially influence clinical practices and quality of care. With the current focus on coordinated care, discerning influences of naturally occurring clusters and other forms of dependence among physicians' relationships based on their attributes and care patterns is an important area of research. In this paper, two directed physician networks: a physician influential conversation network (N = 33) and a physician network obtained from patient visit data (N = 135) are analyzed using a new model that accounts for effect modification of the within-dyad effect of reciprocity and inter-dyad effects involving three (or more) actors. The results from this model include more nuanced effects involving reciprocity and triadic dependence than under incumbent models and more flexible control for these effects in the extraction of other network phenomena, including the relationship between similarity of individuals' attributes (e.g., same-gender, same residency location) and tie-status. In both cases we find extensive evidence of clustering and triadic dependence that if not accounted for confounds the effect of reciprocity and attribute homophily. Findings from our analysis suggest alternative conclusions to those from incumbent models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

BACTERIAL MORTALITY DUE TO SOLAR RADIATION, COMPARING EXPERIMENTAL AND STATISTICAL EVIDENCE

EPA Science Inventory

Many researchers report that sunlight is a primary stressor of beach indicator bacteria. Some water quality models include code that quantifies the effect of radiation on bacterial decay. For example, the EPA Visual Plumes model includes two coliform and one enterococcus submodel...

Modeling procedures for handling qualities evaluation of flexible aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Govindaraj, K. S.; Eulrich, B. J.; Chalk, C. R.

1981-01-01

This paper presents simplified modeling procedures to evaluate the impact of flexible modes and the unsteady aerodynamic effects on the handling qualities of Supersonic Cruise Aircraft (SCR). The modeling procedures involve obtaining reduced order transfer function models of SCR vehicles, including the important flexible mode responses and unsteady aerodynamic effects, and conversion of the transfer function models to time domain equations for use in simulations. The use of the modeling procedures is illustrated by a simple example.

Boosting structured additive quantile regression for longitudinal childhood obesity data.

PubMed

Fenske, Nora; Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Hothorn, Torsten; Rzehak, Peter; Höhle, Michael

2013-07-25

Childhood obesity and the investigation of its risk factors has become an important public health issue. Our work is based on and motivated by a German longitudinal study including 2,226 children with up to ten measurements on their body mass index (BMI) and risk factors from birth to the age of 10 years. We introduce boosting of structured additive quantile regression as a novel distribution-free approach for longitudinal quantile regression. The quantile-specific predictors of our model include conventional linear population effects, smooth nonlinear functional effects, varying-coefficient terms, and individual-specific effects, such as intercepts and slopes. Estimation is based on boosting, a computer intensive inference method for highly complex models. We propose a component-wise functional gradient descent boosting algorithm that allows for penalized estimation of the large variety of different effects, particularly leading to individual-specific effects shrunken toward zero. This concept allows us to flexibly estimate the nonlinear age curves of upper quantiles of the BMI distribution, both on population and on individual-specific level, adjusted for further risk factors and to detect age-varying effects of categorical risk factors. Our model approach can be regarded as the quantile regression analog of Gaussian additive mixed models (or structured additive mean regression models), and we compare both model classes with respect to our obesity data.

The effect of collagen fibril orientation on the biphasic mechanics of articular cartilage.

PubMed

Meng, Qingen; An, Shuqiang; Damion, Robin A; Jin, Zhongmin; Wilcox, Ruth; Fisher, John; Jones, Alison

2017-01-01

The highly inhomogeneous distribution of collagen fibrils may have important effects on the biphasic mechanics of articular cartilage. However, the effect of the inhomogeneity of collagen fibrils has mainly been investigated using simplified three-layered models, which may have underestimated the effect of collagen fibrils by neglecting their realistic orientation. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of the realistic orientation of collagen fibrils on the biphasic mechanics of articular cartilage. Five biphasic material models, each of which included a different level of complexity of fibril reinforcement, were solved using two different finite element software packages (Abaqus and FEBio). Model 1 considered the realistic orientation of fibrils, which was derived from diffusion tensor magnetic resonance images. The simplified three-layered orientation was used for Model 2. Models 3-5 were three control models. The realistic collagen orientations obtained in this study were consistent with the literature. Results from the two finite element implementations were in agreement for each of the conditions modelled. The comparison between the control models confirmed some functions of collagen fibrils. The comparison between Models 1 and 2 showed that the widely-used three-layered inhomogeneous model can produce similar fluid load support to the model including the realistic fibril orientation; however, an accurate prediction of the other mechanical parameters requires the inclusion of the realistic orientation of collagen fibrils. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Blood and small intestine cell kinetics under radiation exposures: Mathematical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnova, O. A.

2009-12-01

Mathematical models which describe the dynamics of two vital body systems (hematopoiesis and small intestinal epithelium) in mammals exposed to acute and chronic radiation are developed. These models, based on conventional biological theories, are implemented as systems of nonlinear differential equations. Their variables and constant parameters have clear biological meaning, that provides successful identification and verification of the models in hand. It is shown that the predictions of the models qualitatively and quantitatively agree with the respective experimental data for small laboratory animals (mice, rats) exposed to acute/chronic irradiation in wide ranges of doses and dose rates. The explanation of a number of radiobiological effects, including those of the low-level long-term exposures, is proposed proceeding from the modeling results. All this bears witness to the validity of employment of the developed models, after a proper identification, in investigation and prediction of radiation effects on the hematopoietic and small intestinal epithelium systems in various mammalian species, including humans. In particular, the models can be used for estimating effects of irradiation on astronauts in the long-term space missions, such as Lunar colonies and Mars voyages.

Forward Modeling of Large-scale Structure: An Open-source Approach with Halotools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hearin, Andrew P.; Campbell, Duncan; Tollerud, Erik; Behroozi, Peter; Diemer, Benedikt; Goldbaum, Nathan J.; Jennings, Elise; Leauthaud, Alexie; Mao, Yao-Yuan; More, Surhud; Parejko, John; Sinha, Manodeep; Sipöcz, Brigitta; Zentner, Andrew

2017-11-01

We present the first stable release of Halotools (v0.2), a community-driven Python package designed to build and test models of the galaxy-halo connection. Halotools provides a modular platform for creating mock universes of galaxies starting from a catalog of dark matter halos obtained from a cosmological simulation. The package supports many of the common forms used to describe galaxy-halo models: the halo occupation distribution, the conditional luminosity function, abundance matching, and alternatives to these models that include effects such as environmental quenching or variable galaxy assembly bias. Satellite galaxies can be modeled to live in subhalos or to follow custom number density profiles within their halos, including spatial and/or velocity bias with respect to the dark matter profile. The package has an optimized toolkit to make mock observations on a synthetic galaxy population—including galaxy clustering, galaxy-galaxy lensing, galaxy group identification, RSD multipoles, void statistics, pairwise velocities and others—allowing direct comparison to observations. Halotools is object-oriented, enabling complex models to be built from a set of simple, interchangeable components, including those of your own creation. Halotools has an automated testing suite and is exhaustively documented on http://halotools.readthedocs.io, which includes quickstart guides, source code notes and a large collection of tutorials. The documentation is effectively an online textbook on how to build and study empirical models of galaxy formation with Python.

Animal Models and Bone Histomorphometry: Translational Research for the Human Research Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibonga, Jean D.

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of animal models to research and inform bone morphology, in particular relating to human research in bone loss as a result of low gravity environments. Reasons for use of animal models as tools for human research programs include: time-efficient, cost-effective, invasive measures, and predictability as some model are predictive for drug effects.

Models Required to Mitigate Impacts of Space Weather on Space Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Janet L.

2003-01-01

This viewgraph presentation attempts to develop a model of factors which need to be considered in the design and construction of spacecraft to lessen the effects of space weather on these vehicles. Topics considered include: space environments and effects, radiation environments and effects, space weather drivers, space weather models, climate models, solar proton activity and mission design for the GOES mission. The authors conclude that space environment models need to address issues from mission planning through operations and a program to develop and validate authoritative space environment models for application to spacecraft design does not exist at this time.

Cattell-Horn-Carroll Cognitive Abilities and Their Effects on Reading Decoding Skills: g Has Indirect Effects, More Specific Abilities Have Direct Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Floyd, Randy G.; Keith, Timothy Z.; Taub, Gordon E.; McGrew, Kevin S.

2007-01-01

This study employed structural equation modeling to examine the effects of Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) abilities on reading decoding skills using five age-differentiated subsamples from the standardization sample of the Woodcock-Johnson III (Woodcock, McGrew, & Mather, 2001). Using the Spearman Model including only g, strong direct effects of g on…

Modelling the effect of low soil temperatures on transpiration by Scots pine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellander, Per-Erik; Stähli, Manfred; Gustafsson, David; Bishop, Kevin

2006-06-01

For ecosystem modelling of the Boreal forest it is important to include processes associated with low soil temperature during spring-early summer, as these affect the tree water uptake. The COUP model, a physically based SVAT model, was tested with 2 years of soil and snow physical measurements and sap flow measurements in a 70-year-old Scots pine stand in the boreal zone of northern Sweden. During the first year the extent and duration of soil frost was manipulated in the field. The model was successful in reproducing the timing of the soil warming after the snowmelt and frost thaw. A delayed soil warming, into the growing season, severely reduced the transpiration. We demonstrated the potential for considerable overestimation of transpiration by the model if the reduction of the trees' capacity to transpire due to low soil temperatures is not taken into account. We also demonstrated that the accumulated effect of aboveground conditions could be included when simulating the relationship between soil temperature and tree water uptake. This improved the estimated transpiration for the control plot and when soil warming was delayed into the growing season. The study illustrates the need of including antecedent conditions on root growth in the model in order to catch these effects on transpiration. The COUP model is a promising tool for predicting transpiration in high-latitude stands.

Damage identification using inverse methods.

PubMed

Friswell, Michael I

2007-02-15

This paper gives an overview of the use of inverse methods in damage detection and location, using measured vibration data. Inverse problems require the use of a model and the identification of uncertain parameters of this model. Damage is often local in nature and although the effect of the loss of stiffness may require only a small number of parameters, the lack of knowledge of the location means that a large number of candidate parameters must be included. This paper discusses a number of problems that exist with this approach to health monitoring, including modelling error, environmental effects, damage localization and regularization.

Single pion production in neutrino-nucleon interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabirnezhad, M.

2018-01-01

This work represents an extension of the single pion production model proposed by Rein [Z. Phys. C 35, 43 (1987)., 10.1007/BF01561054]. The model consists of resonant pion production and nonresonant background contributions coming from three Born diagrams in the helicity basis. The new work includes lepton mass effects, and nonresonance interaction is described by five diagrams based on a nonlinear σ model. This work provides a full kinematic description of single pion production in the neutrino-nucleon interactions, including resonant and nonresonant interactions in the helicity basis, in order to study the interference effect.

Particle force model effects in a shock-driven multiphase instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, W. J.; Denissen, N.; McFarland, J. A.

2018-05-01

This work presents simulations on a shock-driven multiphase instability (SDMI) at an initial particle volume fraction of 1% with the addition of a suite of particle force models applicable in dense flows. These models include pressure-gradient, added-mass, and interparticle force terms in an effort to capture the effects neighboring particles have in non-dilute flow regimes. Two studies are presented here: the first seeks to investigate the individual contributions of the force models, while the second study focuses on examining the effect of these force models on the hydrodynamic evolution of a SDMI with various particle relaxation times (particle sizes). In the force study, it was found that the pressure gradient and interparticle forces have little effect on the instability under the conditions examined, while the added-mass force decreases the vorticity deposition and alters the morphology of the instability. The relaxation-time study likewise showed a decrease in metrics associated with the evolution of the SDMI for all sizes when the particle force models were included. The inclusion of these models showed significant morphological differences in both the particle and carrier species fields, which increased as particle relaxation times increased.

Assessment of health impacts of decreased smoking prevalence in Copenhagen: Application of the DYNAMO-HIA model.

PubMed

Holm, Astrid Ledgaard; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Robinson, Kirstine Magtengaard; Diderichsen, Finn

2014-07-01

Tobacco smoking is among the leading risk factors for chronic disease and early death in developed countries, including Denmark, where smoking causes 14% of the disease burden. In Denmark, many public health interventions, including smoking prevention, are undertaken by the municipalities, but models to estimate potential health effects of local interventions are lacking. The aim of the current study was to model the effects of decreased smoking prevalence in Copenhagen, Denmark. The DYNAMO-HIA model was applied to the population of Copenhagen, by using health survey data and data from Danish population registers. We modelled the effects of four intervention scenarios aimed at different target groups, compared to a reference scenario. The potential effects of each scenario were modelled until 2040. A combined scenario affecting both initiation rates among youth, and cessation and re-initiation rates among adults, which reduced the smoking prevalence to 4% by 2025, would have large beneficial effects on incidence and prevalence of smoking-related diseases and mortality. Health benefits could also be obtained through interventions targeting only cessation or re-initiation rates, whereas an intervention targeting only initiation among youth had marginal effects on morbidity and mortality within the modelled time frame. By modifying the DYNAMO-HIA model, we were able to estimate the potential health effects of four interventions to reduce smoking prevalence in the population of Copenhagen. The effect of the interventions on future public health depended on population subgroup(s) targeted, duration of implementation and intervention reach. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Systematic Review of Modelling Approaches for the Cost Effectiveness of Hepatitis C Treatment with Direct-Acting Antivirals.

PubMed

Chhatwal, Jagpreet; He, Tianhua; Lopez-Olivo, Maria A

2016-06-01

New direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are highly effective for hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. However, their prices have been widely debated. Decision-analytic models can project the long-term value of HCV treatment. Therefore, understanding of the methods used in these models and how they could influence results is important. Our objective was to describe and systematically review the methodological approaches in published cost-effectiveness models of chronic HCV treatment with DAAs. We searched several electronic databases, including Medline, Embase and EconLit, from 2011 to 2015. Study selection was performed by two reviewers independently. We included any cost-effectiveness analysis comparing DAAs with the old standard of care for HCV treatment. We excluded non-English-language studies and studies not reporting quality-adjusted life-years. One reviewer collected data and assessed the quality of reporting, using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement. Another reviewer crosschecked the abstracted information. The development methods of the included studies were synthetized on the basis of good modelling practice recommendations. Review of 304 citations revealed 36 cost-effectiveness analyses. The reporting quality scores of most articles were rated as acceptable, between 67 and 100 %. The majority of the studies were conducted in Europe (50 %), followed by the USA (44 %). Fifty-six percent of the 36 studies evaluated the cost effectiveness of HCV treatment in both treatment-naive and treatment-experienced patients, 97 % included genotype 1 patients and 53 % evaluated the cost effectiveness of second-generation or oral DAAs in comparison with the previous standard of care or other DAAs. Twenty-one models defined health states in terms of METAVIR fibrosis scores. Only one study used a discrete-event simulation approach, and the remainder used state-transition models. The time horizons varied; however, 89 % of studies used a lifetime horizon. One study was conducted from a societal perspective. Thirty-three percent of studies did not conduct any model validation. We also noted that none of the studies modelled HCV treatment as a prevention strategy, 86 % of models did not consider the possibility of re-infection with HCV after successful treatment, 97 % of studies did not consider indirect economic benefits resulting from HCV treatment and none of the studies evaluating oral DAAs used real-world data. The search was limited by date (from 1 January 2011 to 8 September 2015) and was also limited to English-language and published reports. Most modelling studies used a similar modelling structure and could have underestimated the value of HCV treatment. Future modelling efforts should consider the benefits of HCV treatment in preventing transmission, extra-hepatic and indirect economic benefits of HCV treatment, real-world cost-effectiveness analysis and cost effectiveness of HCV treatment in low- and middle-income countries.

Mass modeling for bars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Thomas G.

1987-01-01

Methods of modeling mass for bars are surveyed. A method for extending John Archer's concept of consistent mass beyond just translational inertia effects is included. Recommendations are given for various types of modeling situations.

Static and wind tunnel near-field/far field jet noise measurements from model scale single-flow baseline and suppressor nozzles. Volume 2: Forward speed effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaeck, C. L.

1976-01-01

A model scale flight effects test was conducted in the 40 by 80 foot wind tunnel to investigate the effect of aircraft forward speed on single flow jet noise characteristics. The models tested included a 15.24 cm baseline round convergent nozzle, a 20-lobe and annular nozzle with and without lined ejector shroud, and a 57-tube nozzle with a lined ejector shroud. Nozzle operating conditions covered jet velocities from 412 to 640 m/s at a total temperature of 844 K. Wind tunnel speeds were varied from near zero to 91.5 m/s. Measurements were analyzed to (1) determine apparent jet noise source location including effects of ambient velocity; (2) verify a technique for extrapolating near field jet noise measurements into the far field; (3) determine flight effects in the near and far field for baseline and suppressor nozzles; and (4) establish the wind tunnel as a means of accurately defining flight effects for model nozzles and full scale engines.

The Use of Modeling-Based Text to Improve Students' Modeling Competencies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jong, Jing-Ping; Chiu, Mei-Hung; Chung, Shiao-Lan

2015-01-01

This study investigated the effects of a modeling-based text on 10th graders' modeling competencies. Fifteen 10th graders read a researcher-developed modeling-based science text on the ideal gas law that included explicit descriptions and representations of modeling processes (i.e., model selection, model construction, model validation, model…

Vibrational kinetics in CO electric discharge lasers - Modeling and experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanton, A. C.; Hanson, R. K.; Mitchner, M.

1980-01-01

A model of CO laser vibrational kinetics is developed, and predicted vibrational distributions are compared with measurements. The experimental distributions were obtained at various flow locations in a transverse CW discharge in supersonic (M = 3) flow. Good qualitative agreement is obtained in the comparisons, including the prediction of a total inversion at low discharge current densities. The major area of discrepancy is an observed loss in vibrational energy downstream of the discharge which is not predicted by the model. This discrepancy may be due to three-dimensional effects in the experiment which are not included in the model. Possible kinetic effects which may contribute to vibrational energy loss are also examined.

Computational studies of horizontal axis wind turbines in high wind speed condition using advanced turbulence models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjanirat, Sarun

Next generation horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs) will operate at very high wind speeds. Existing engineering approaches for modeling the flow phenomena are based on blade element theory, and cannot adequately account for 3-D separated, unsteady flow effects. Therefore, researchers around the world are beginning to model these flows using first principles-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approaches. In this study, an existing first principles-based Navier-Stokes approach is being enhanced to model HAWTs at high wind speeds. The enhancements include improved grid topology, implicit time-marching algorithms, and advanced turbulence models. The advanced turbulence models include the Spalart-Allmaras one-equation model, k-epsilon, k-o and Shear Stress Transport (k-o-SST) models. These models are also integrated with detached eddy simulation (DES) models. Results are presented for a range of wind speeds, for a configuration termed National Renewable Energy Laboratory Phase VI rotor, tested at NASA Ames Research Center. Grid sensitivity studies are also presented. Additionally, effects of existing transition models on the predictions are assessed. Data presented include power/torque production, radial distribution of normal and tangential pressure forces, root bending moments, and surface pressure fields. Good agreement was obtained between the predictions and experiments for most of the conditions, particularly with the Spalart-Allmaras-DES model.

The Five Attributes of a Supportive Midwifery Practice Climate: A Review of the Literature.

PubMed

Thumm, E Brie; Flynn, Linda

2018-01-01

A supportive work climate is associated with decreased burnout and attrition, and increased job satisfaction and employee health. A review of the literature was conducted in order to determine the unique attributes of a supportive practice climate for midwives. The midwifery literature was reviewed and synthesized using concept analysis technique guided by literature from related professions. The search was conducted primarily in PubMed, CINAHL, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Articles were included if they were conducted between 2006 and 2016 and addressed perceptions of the midwifery practice climate as it related to patient, provider, and organizational outcomes. The literature identified 5 attributes consistent with a supportive midwifery practice climate: effective leadership, adequate resources, collaboration, control of one's work, and support of the midwifery model of care. Effective leadership styles include situational and transformational, and 9 traits of effective leaders are specified. Resources consist of time, personnel, supplies, and equipment. Collaboration encompasses relationships with all members of the health care team, including midwives inside and outside of one's practice. Additionally, the patients are considered collaborating members of the team. Characteristics of effective collaboration include a shared vision, role clarity, and respectful communication. Support for the midwifery model of care includes value congruence, developing relationships with women, and providing high-quality care. The attributes of a supportive midwifery practice climate are generally consistent with theoretical models of supportive practice climates of advanced practice nurses and physicians, with the exception of a more inclusive definition of collaboration and support of the midwifery model of care. The proposed Midwifery Practice Climate Model can guide instrument development, determining relationships between the attributes of the practice climate and outcomes, and creating interventions to improve the practice climate, workforce stability, and patient outcomes. © 2018 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

Master Equation Analysis of Thermal and Nonthermal Microwave Effects.

PubMed

Ma, Jianyi

2016-10-11

Master equation is a successful model to describe the conventional heating reaction, it is expanded to capture the "microwave effect" in this work. The work equation of "microwave effect" included master equation presents the direct heating, indirect heating, and nonthermal effect about the microwave field. The modified master equation provides a clear physics picture to the nonthermal microwave effect: (1) The absorption and the emission of the microwave, which is dominated by the transition dipole moment between two corresponding states and the intensity of the microwave field, provides a new path to change the reaction rate constants. (2) In the strong microwave field, the distribution of internal states of the molecules will deviate from the equilibrium distribution, and the system temperature defined in the conventional heating reaction is no longer available. According to the general form of "microwave effect" included master equation, a two states model for unimolecular dissociation is proposed and is used to discuss the microwave nonthermal effect particularly. The average rate constants can be increased up to 2400 times for some given cases without the temperature changed in the two states model. Additionally, the simulation of a model system was executed using our State Specified Master Equation package. Three important conclusions can be obtained in present work: (1) A reasonable definition of the nonthermal microwave effect is given in the work equation of "microwave effect" included master equation. (2) Nonthermal microwave effect possibly exists theoretically. (3) The reaction rate constants perhaps can be changed obviously by the microwave field for the non-RRKM and the mode-specified reactions.

A Drosophila model for developmental nicotine exposure

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Despite the known health risks of tobacco smoking, many people including pregnant women continue smoking. The effects of developmental nicotine exposure are known, but the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Drosophila melanogaster is a model organism that can be used for uncovering genetic and molecular mechanisms for drugs of abuse. Here I show that Drosophila can be a model to elucidate the mechanisms for nicotine’s effects on a developing organism. Drosophila reared on nicotine food display developmental and behavioral effects similar to those in mammals including decreased survival and weight, increased developmental time, and decreased sensitivity to acute nicotine and ethanol. The Drosophila nicotinic acetylcholine receptor subunit alpha 7 (Dα7) mediates some of these effects. A novel role for Dα7 on ethanol sedation in Drosophila is also shown. Future research taking advantage of the genetic and molecular tools for Drosophila will allow additional discovery of the mechanisms behind the effects of nicotine during development. PMID:28498868

HRM: HII Region Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenger, Trey V.; Kepley, Amanda K.; Balser, Dana S.

2017-07-01

HII Region Models fits HII region models to observed radio recombination line and radio continuum data. The algorithm includes the calculations of departure coefficients to correct for non-LTE effects. HII Region Models has been used to model star formation in the nucleus of IC 342.

Predicting the Effects of Water Quality on the Growth of Thalassia testudinum in Tampa Bay with a Dynamic Simile-Based Model Tool

EPA Science Inventory

We describe a seagrass growth (SGG) model that is coupled to a water quality (WQ) model that includes the effects of phytoplankton (chlorophyll), colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and suspended solids (TSS) on water clarity. Phytoplankton growth was adjusted daily for PAR (...

Rotational and vibrational nonequilibrium effects in rarefied, hypersonic flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, Iain D.

1989-01-01

Results are reported for an investigation into the methods by which energy transfer is calculated in the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method. Description is made of a recently developed energy exchange model that deals with the translational and rotational modes. A new model for simulating the transfer of energy between the translational and vibrational modes is also explained. This model allows the vibrational relaxation time to follow the temperature dependence predicted by the Landau-Teller theory at moderate temperatures. For temperatures in excess of about 8000K the vibrational model is extended to include an empirical result for the relaxation time. The effect of introducing these temperature dependent collision numbers into the DSMC technique is assessed by making calculations representative of the stagnation streamline of a hypersonic space vehicle. Both thermal and chemical nonequilibrium effects are included while the flow conditions have been chosen such that ionization and radiation may be neglected. The introduction of these new models is found to significantly affect the degree of thermal nonequilibrium observed in the flowfield. Larger, and more widely ranging, differences in the results obtained with the different energy exchange probabilities are found when a significant amount of internal energy is included in the calculation of chemical nonequilibrium.

Increasing Effectiveness in Teaching Ethics to Undergraduate Business Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lampe, Marc

1997-01-01

Traditional approaches to teaching business ethics (philosophical analysis, moral quandaries, executive cases) may not be effective in persuading undergraduates of the importance of ethical behavior. Better techniques include values education, ethical decision-making models, analysis of ethical conflicts, and role modeling. (SK)

Ensemble learning of QTL models improves prediction of complex traits

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantitative trait locus (QTL) models can provide useful insights into trait genetic architecture because of their straightforward interpretability, but are less useful for genetic prediction due to difficulty in including the effects of numerous small effect loci without overfitting. Tight linkage ...

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) Version 3.8: Users Guide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Justus, C. G.; James, B. F.

1999-05-01

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) Version 3.8 is presented and its new features are discussed. Mars-GRAM uses new values of planetary reference ellipsoid radii, gravity term, and rotation rate (consistent with current JPL values) and includes centrifugal effects on gravity. The model now uses NASA Ames Global Circulation Model low resolution topography. Curvature corrections are applied to winds and limits based on speed of sound are applied. Altitude of the F1 ionization peak and density scale height, including effects of change of molecular weight with altitude are computed. A check is performed to disallow temperatures below CO2 sublimination. This memorandum includes instructions on obtaining Mars-GRAM source code and data files and running the program. Sample input and output are provided. An example of incorporating Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code is also given.

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) Version 3.8: Users Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; James, B. F.

1999-01-01

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) Version 3.8 is presented and its new features are discussed. Mars-GRAM uses new values of planetary reference ellipsoid radii, gravity term, and rotation rate (consistent with current JPL values) and includes centrifugal effects on gravity. The model now uses NASA Ames Global Circulation Model low resolution topography. Curvature corrections are applied to winds and limits based on speed of sound are applied. Altitude of the F1 ionization peak and density scale height, including effects of change of molecular weight with altitude are computed. A check is performed to disallow temperatures below CO2 sublimination. This memorandum includes instructions on obtaining Mars-GRAM source code and data files and running the program. Sample input and output are provided. An example of incorporating Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code is also given.

Impacts of Climate Change on Biofuels Production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melillo, Jerry M.

2014-04-30

The overall goal of this research project was to improve and use our biogeochemistry model, TEM, to simulate the effects of climate change and other environmental changes on the production of biofuel feedstocks. We used the improved version of TEM that is coupled with the economic model, EPPA, a part of MIT’s Earth System Model, to explore how alternative uses of land, including land for biofuels production, can help society meet proposed climate targets. During the course of this project, we have made refinements to TEM that include development of a more mechanistic plant module, with improved ecohydrology and considerationmore » of plant-water relations, and a more detailed treatment of soil nitrogen dynamics, especially processes that add or remove nitrogen from ecosystems. We have documented our changes to TEM and used the model to explore the effects on production in land ecosystems, including changes in biofuels production.« less

Nonequilibrium radiation and chemistry models for aerocapture vehicle flowfields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Leland A.

1994-01-01

The primary accomplishments of the project were as follows: (1) From an overall standpoint, the primary accomplishment of this research was the development of a complete gasdynamic-radiatively coupled nonequilibrium viscous shock layer solution method for axisymmetric blunt bodies. This method can be used for rapid engineering modeling of nonequilibrium re-entry flowfields over a wide range of conditions. (2) Another significant accomplishment was the development of an air radiation model that included local thermodynamic nonequilibrium (LTNE) phenomena. (3) As part of this research, three electron-electronic energy models were developed. The first was a quasi-equilibrium electron (QEE) model which determined an effective free electron temperature and assumed that the electronic states were in equilibrium with the free electrons. The second was a quasi-equilibrium electron-electronic (QEEE) model which computed an effective electron-electronic temperature. The third model was a full electron-electronic (FEE) differential equation model which included convective, collisional, viscous, conductive, vibrational coupling, and chemical effects on electron-electronic energy. (4) Since vibration-dissociation coupling phenomena as well as vibrational thermal nonequilibrium phenomena are important in the nonequilibrium zone behind a shock front, a vibrational energy and vibration-dissociation coupling model was developed and included in the flowfield model. This model was a modified coupled vibrational dissociation vibrational (MCVDV) model and also included electron-vibrational coupling. (5) Another accomplishment of the project was the usage of the developed models to investigate radiative heating. (6) A multi-component diffusion model which properly models the multi-component nature of diffusion in complex gas mixtures such as air, was developed and incorporated into the blunt body model. (7) A model was developed to predict the magnitude and characteristics of the shock wave precursor ahead of vehicles entering the Earth's atmosphere. (8) Since considerable data exists for radiating nonequilibrium flow behind normal shock waves, a normal shock wave version of the blunt body code was developed. (9) By comparing predictions from the models and codes with available normal shock data and the flight data of Fire II, it is believed that the developed flowfield and nonequilibrium radiation models have been essentially validated for engineering applications.

Dynamic ocean-tide effects on Earth's rotation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickman, S. R.

1993-01-01

This article develops 'broad-band' Liouville equations which are capable of determining the effects on the rotation of the Earth of a periodic excitation even at frequencies as high as semi-diurnal; these equations are then used to predict the rotational effects of altimetric, numerical and 32-constituent spherical harmonic ocean-tide models. The rotational model includes a frequency-dependent decoupled core, the effects of which are especially marked near retrograde diurnal frequencies; and a fully dynamic oceanic response, whose effects appear to be minor despite significant frequency dependence. The model also includes solid-earth effects which are frequency dependent as the result of both anelasticity at long periods and the fluid-core resonance at nearly diurnal periods. The effects of both tidal inertia and relative angular momentum on Earth rotation (polar motion, length of day, 'nutation' and Universal Time) are presented for 32 long- and short-period ocean tides determined as solutions to the author's spherical harmonic tide theory. The lengthening of the Chandler wobble period by the pole tide is also re-computed using the author's full theory. Additionally, using the spherical harmonic theory, tidal currents and their effects on rotation are determined for available numerical and altimetric tide height models. For all models, we find that the effects of tidal currents are at least as important as those of tide height for diurnal and semi-diurnal constituents.

Modelling individual tree height to crown base of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)

PubMed Central

Jansa, Václav

2017-01-01

Height to crown base (HCB) of a tree is an important variable often included as a predictor in various forest models that serve as the fundamental tools for decision-making in forestry. We developed spatially explicit and spatially inexplicit mixed-effects HCB models using measurements from a total 19,404 trees of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) on the permanent sample plots that are located across the Czech Republic. Variables describing site quality, stand density or competition, and species mixing effects were included into the HCB model with use of dominant height (HDOM), basal area of trees larger in diameters than a subject tree (BAL- spatially inexplicit measure) or Hegyi’s competition index (HCI—spatially explicit measure), and basal area proportion of a species of interest (BAPOR), respectively. The parameters describing sample plot-level random effects were included into the HCB model by applying the mixed-effects modelling approach. Among several functional forms evaluated, the logistic function was found most suited to our data. The HCB model for Norway spruce was tested against the data originated from different inventory designs, but model for European beech was tested using partitioned dataset (a part of the main dataset). The variance heteroscedasticity in the residuals was substantially reduced through inclusion of a power variance function into the HCB model. The results showed that spatially explicit model described significantly a larger part of the HCB variations [R2adj = 0.86 (spruce), 0.85 (beech)] than its spatially inexplicit counterpart [R2adj = 0.84 (spruce), 0.83 (beech)]. The HCB increased with increasing competitive interactions described by tree-centered competition measure: BAL or HCI, and species mixing effects described by BAPOR. A test of the mixed-effects HCB model with the random effects estimated using at least four trees per sample plot in the validation data confirmed that the model was precise enough for the prediction of HCB for a range of site quality, tree size, stand density, and stand structure. We therefore recommend measuring of HCB on four randomly selected trees of a species of interest on each sample plot for localizing the mixed-effects model and predicting HCB of the remaining trees on the plot. Growth simulations can be made from the data that lack the values for either crown ratio or HCB using the HCB models. PMID:29049391

The Be-WetSpa-Pest modeling approach to simulate human and environmental exposure from pesticide application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binder, Claudia; Garcia-Santos, Glenda; Andreoli, Romano; Diaz, Jaime; Feola, Giuseppe; Wittensoeldner, Moritz; Yang, Jing

2016-04-01

This study presents an integrative and spatially explicit modeling approach for analyzing human and environmental exposure from pesticide application of smallholders in the potato producing Andean region in Colombia. The modeling approach fulfills the following criteria: (i) it includes environmental and human compartments; (ii) it contains a behavioral decision-making model for estimating the effect of policies on pesticide flows to humans and the environment; (iii) it is spatially explicit; and (iv) it is modular and easily expandable to include additional modules, crops or technologies. The model was calibrated and validated for the Vereda La Hoya and was used to explore the effect of different policy measures in the region. The model has moderate data requirements and can be adapted relatively easy to other regions in developing countries with similar conditions.

Use of animal models for space flight physiology studies, with special focus on the immune system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sonnenfeld, Gerald

2005-01-01

Animal models have been used to study the effects of space flight on physiological systems. The animal models have been used because of the limited availability of human subjects for studies to be carried out in space as well as because of the need to carry out experiments requiring samples and experimental conditions that cannot be performed using humans. Experiments have been carried out in space using a variety of species, and included developmental biology studies. These species included rats, mice, non-human primates, fish, invertebrates, amphibians and insects. The species were chosen because they best fit the experimental conditions required for the experiments. Experiments with animals have also been carried out utilizing ground-based models that simulate some of the effects of exposure to space flight conditions. Most of the animal studies have generated results that parallel the effects of space flight on human physiological systems. Systems studied have included the neurovestibular system, the musculoskeletal system, the immune system, the neurological system, the hematological system, and the cardiovascular system. Hindlimb unloading, a ground-based model of some of the effects of space flight on the immune system, has been used to study the effects of space flight conditions on physiological parameters. For the immune system, exposure to hindlimb unloading has been shown to results in alterations of the immune system similar to those observed after space flight. This has permitted the development of experiments that demonstrated compromised resistance to infection in rodents maintained in the hindlimb unloading model as well as the beginning of studies to develop countermeasures to ameliorate or prevent such occurrences. Although there are limitations to the use of animal models for the effects of space flight on physiological systems, the animal models should prove very valuable in designing countermeasures for exploration class missions of the future.

Evaluating the impact of fires on slope instability processes: a case study in Central Italy (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, M.; Torri, D.; Bacaro, G.; Mondini, A.; Reichenbach, P.; Fiorucci, F.; Marchesini, I.

2013-12-01

Fires can change significantly the characteristics of slopes. Their effect on vegetation, soil properties, and fauna can influence slope instability processes, including channeled erosion and mass movements. Even if in the literature attempts to estimate these effects were made using mostly empirical approaches, evaluating quantitatively the impact of fires on slope instability processes remain challenging. In a small basin in Central Italy, where an intense arson occurred in July 2012, we estimated the effects of fire on the hazard posed by different type of instability processes. For the purpose we modelled separately channeled erosion phenomena and rock falls, for which a significant impact of fires was expected. For the former we exploited the LANDPLANER (LANDscape, Plants, LANdslides and ERosion) model, which is able to simulate the hydrological response of a slope, and their effect on instability processes, under human-induced or natural changing scenarios, including climatic, land use, and slope morphology changes. For the latter we exploited two different modeling approaches considering directly (Rockyfor3D model) or indirectly (STONE model) the effect of the vegetation on the movement of rock masses along the slope. All the model simulations were repeated considering land use scenarios before and after the fire. Those were derived through field surveys and though the supervised classification of high resolution satellite images acquired inthe study area before and after the fire. The analysis of the effect of the fire on channeled phenomena included the estimation of (i) the overland flow on the basin, (ii) the location of the gully head, (iii) the channel eroded volume, and (iii) the change of the connectivity inside the basin. The analysis of the effect of the fire on rock fall phenomena included the estimation of (i) the increase of rock fall source areas, (ii) the increase of distances travelled by rock masses along the slopes, and (iii) the spatial distribution of the fallen rock blocks. In all models and scenarios we considered the effect of roads. Results showed a significant increase of the susceptibility to slope instability processes after the fire, mainly due to (i) the formation of hydro repellent soil horizons, (ii) the removal of the litter, (iii) the burning of vegetation.

Radiation risk estimation: Modelling approaches for “targeted” and “non-targeted” effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballarini, Francesca; Alloni, Daniele; Facoetti, Angelica; Mairani, Andrea; Nano, Rosanna; Ottolenghi, Andrea

The estimation of the risks from low doses of ionizing radiation - including heavy ions - is still a debated question. In particular, the action of heavy ions on biological targets needs further investigation. In this framework, we present a mechanistic model and a Monte Carlo simulation code for the induction of different types of chromosome aberrations. The model, previously validated for gamma rays and light ions, has recently started to be extended to heavy ions such as Iron and Carbon, which are of interest both for space radiation protection and for hadrontherapy. Preliminary results were found to be in agreement with experimental dose-response curves for aberration yields observed following heavy-ion irradiation of human lymphocytes treated with the Premature Chromosome Condensation technique. During the last 10 years, the "Linear No Threshold" hypothesis has been challenged by a large number of observations on the so-called "non-targeted effects" including bystander effect, which consists of the induction of cytogenetic damage in cells not directly traversed by radiation, most likely as a response to molecular messengers released by directly irradiated cells. Although it is now clear that cellular communication plays a fundamental role, our knowledge on the mechanisms underlying bystander effects is still poor, and would largely benefit from further investigations including theoretical models and simulation codes. In the present paper we will review different modelling approaches, including one that is being developed at the University of Pavia, focusing on the assumptions adopted by the various authors and on their implications in terms of low-dose radiation risk, as well as on the identification of "critical" parameters that can modulate the model outcomes.

Budget model can aid group practice planning.

PubMed

Bender, A D

1991-12-01

A medical practice can enhance its planning by developing a budgetary model to test effects of planning assumptions on its profitability and cash requirements. A model focusing on patient visits, payment mix, patient mix, and fee and payment schedules can help assess effects of proposed decisions. A planning model is not a substitute for planning but should complement a plan that includes mission, goals, values, strategic issues, and different outcomes.

Variable Density Effects in Stochastic Lagrangian Models for Turbulent Combustion

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-20

PDF methods in dealing with chemical reaction and convection are preserved irrespective of density variation. Since the density variation in a typical...combustion process may be as large as factor of seven, including variable- density effects in PDF methods is of significance. Conventionally, the...strategy of modelling variable density flows in PDF methods is similar to that used for second-moment closure models (SMCM): models are developed based on

A constitutive model for the forces of a magnetic bearing including eddy currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, D. L.; Hebbale, K. V.

1993-01-01

A multiple magnet bearing can be developed from N individual electromagnets. The constitutive relationships for a single magnet in such a bearing is presented. Analytical expressions are developed for a magnet with poles arranged circumferencially. Maxwell's field equations are used so the model easily includes the effects of induced eddy currents due to the rotation of the journal. Eddy currents must be included in any dynamic model because they are the only speed dependent parameter and may lead to a critical speed for the bearing. The model is applicable to bearings using attraction or repulsion.

Modeling cumulative dose and exposure duration provided insights regarding the associations between benzodiazepines and injuries.

PubMed

Abrahamowicz, Michal; Bartlett, Gillian; Tamblyn, Robyn; du Berger, Roxane

2006-04-01

Accurate assessment of medication impact requires modeling cumulative effects of exposure duration and dose; however, postmarketing studies usually represent medication exposure by baseline or current use only. We propose new methods for modeling various aspects of medication use history and employment of them to assess the adverse effects of selected benzodiazepines. Time-dependent measures of cumulative dose or duration of use, with weighting of past exposures by recency, were proposed. These measures were then included in alternative versions of the multivariable Cox model to analyze the risk of fall related injuries among the elderly new users of three benzodiazepines (nitrazepam, temazepam, and flurazepam) in Quebec. Akaike's information criterion (AIC) was used to select the most predictive model for a given benzodiazepine. The best-fitting model included a combination of cumulative duration and current dose for temazepam, and cumulative dose for flurazepam and nitrazepam, with different weighting functions. The window of clinically relevant exposure was shorter for flurazepam than for the two other products. Careful modeling of the medication exposure history may enhance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying their adverse effects.

Evidence synthesis to inform model-based cost-effectiveness evaluations of diagnostic tests: a methodological review of health technology assessments.

PubMed

Shinkins, Bethany; Yang, Yaling; Abel, Lucy; Fanshawe, Thomas R

2017-04-14

Evaluations of diagnostic tests are challenging because of the indirect nature of their impact on patient outcomes. Model-based health economic evaluations of tests allow different types of evidence from various sources to be incorporated and enable cost-effectiveness estimates to be made beyond the duration of available study data. To parameterize a health-economic model fully, all the ways a test impacts on patient health must be quantified, including but not limited to diagnostic test accuracy. We assessed all UK NIHR HTA reports published May 2009-July 2015. Reports were included if they evaluated a diagnostic test, included a model-based health economic evaluation and included a systematic review and meta-analysis of test accuracy. From each eligible report we extracted information on the following topics: 1) what evidence aside from test accuracy was searched for and synthesised, 2) which methods were used to synthesise test accuracy evidence and how did the results inform the economic model, 3) how/whether threshold effects were explored, 4) how the potential dependency between multiple tests in a pathway was accounted for, and 5) for evaluations of tests targeted at the primary care setting, how evidence from differing healthcare settings was incorporated. The bivariate or HSROC model was implemented in 20/22 reports that met all inclusion criteria. Test accuracy data for health economic modelling was obtained from meta-analyses completely in four reports, partially in fourteen reports and not at all in four reports. Only 2/7 reports that used a quantitative test gave clear threshold recommendations. All 22 reports explored the effect of uncertainty in accuracy parameters but most of those that used multiple tests did not allow for dependence between test results. 7/22 tests were potentially suitable for primary care but the majority found limited evidence on test accuracy in primary care settings. The uptake of appropriate meta-analysis methods for synthesising evidence on diagnostic test accuracy in UK NIHR HTAs has improved in recent years. Future research should focus on other evidence requirements for cost-effectiveness assessment, threshold effects for quantitative tests and the impact of multiple diagnostic tests.

Automation Applications in an Advanced Air Traffic Management System : Volume 5B. DELTA Simulation Model - Programmer's Guide.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1974-08-01

Volume 5 describes the DELTA Simulation Model. It includes all documentation of the DELTA (Determine Effective Levels of Task Automation) computer simulation developed by TRW for use in the Automation Applications Study. Volume 5A includes a user's m...

Environmental assessment model for shallow land disposal of low-level radioactive wastes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Little, C. A.; Fields, D. E.; Emerson, C. J.; Hiromoto, G.

1981-09-01

The PRESTO (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) computer code developed to evaluate health effects from shallow land burial trenches is described. This generic model assesses radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impact to a static local population for a 1000 y period following the end of burial operations. Human exposure scenarios considered include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population includes ground water transport overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, resuspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses are calculated as well as doses to the intruder and farmer. Cumulative health effects in terms of deaths from cancer are calculated for the population over the 1000 y period using a life table approach. Data bases for three shallow land burial sites (Barnwell, South Carolina, Beatty, Nevada, and West Valley, New York) are under development. The interim model, includes coding for environmental transport through air, surface water, and ground water.

Modeling NIF experimental designs with adaptive mesh refinement and Lagrangian hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koniges, A. E.; Anderson, R. W.; Wang, P.; Gunney, B. T. N.; Becker, R.; Eder, D. C.; MacGowan, B. J.; Schneider, M. B.

2006-06-01

Incorporation of adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) into Lagrangian hydrodynamics algorithms allows for the creation of a highly powerful simulation tool effective for complex target designs with three-dimensional structure. We are developing an advanced modeling tool that includes AMR and traditional arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) techniques. Our goal is the accurate prediction of vaporization, disintegration and fragmentation in National Ignition Facility (NIF) experimental target elements. Although our focus is on minimizing the generation of shrapnel in target designs and protecting the optics, the general techniques are applicable to modern advanced targets that include three-dimensional effects such as those associated with capsule fill tubes. Several essential computations in ordinary radiation hydrodynamics need to be redesigned in order to allow for AMR to work well with ALE, including algorithms associated with radiation transport. Additionally, for our goal of predicting fragmentation, we include elastic/plastic flow into our computations. We discuss the integration of these effects into a new ALE-AMR simulation code. Applications of this newly developed modeling tool as well as traditional ALE simulations in two and three dimensions are applied to NIF early-light target designs.

Millimeter wave propagation modeling of inhomogeneous rain media for satellite communications systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Persinger, R. R.; Stutzman, W. L.

1978-01-01

A theoretical propagation model that represents the scattering properties of an inhomogeneous rain often found on a satellite communications link is presented. The model includes the scattering effects of an arbitrary distribution of particle type (rain or ice), particle shape, particle size, and particle orientation within a given rain cell. An associated rain propagation prediction program predicts attenuation, isolation and phase shift as a function of ground rain rate. A frequency independent synthetic storm algorithm is presented that models nonuniform rain rates present on a satellite link. Antenna effects are included along with a discussion of rain reciprocity. The model is verified using the latest available multiple frequency data from the CTS and COMSTAR satellites. The data covers a wide range of frequencies, elevation angles, and ground site locations.

Effect of the fiber-matrix interphase on the transverse tensile strength of the unidirectional composite material

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsai, H. C.; Arocho, A. M.

1992-01-01

A simple one-dimensional fiber-matrix interphase model has been developed and analytical results obtained correlated well with available experimental data. It was found that by including the interphase between the fiber and matrix in the model, much better local stress results were obtained than with the model without the interphase. A more sophisticated two-dimensional micromechanical model, which included the interphase properties was also developed. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional models were used to study the effect of the interphase properties on the local stresses at the fiber, interphase and matrix. From this study, it was found that interphase modulus and thickness have significant influence on the transverse tensile strength and mode of failure in fiber reinforced composites.

A statistical model including age to predict passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles.

PubMed

Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J

2016-06-01

Few statistical models of rear seat passenger posture have been published, and none has taken into account the effects of occupant age. This study developed new statistical models for predicting passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles. Postures of 89 adults with a wide range of age and body size were measured in a laboratory mock-up in seven seat configurations. Posture-prediction models for female and male passengers were separately developed by stepwise regression using age, body dimensions, seat configurations and two-way interactions as potential predictors. Passenger posture was significantly associated with age and the effects of other two-way interaction variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models are presented for women and men, and the prediction results are compared with previously published models. This study is the first study of passenger posture to include a large cohort of older passengers and the first to report a significant effect of age for adults. The presented models can be used to position computational and physical human models for vehicle design and assessment. Practitioner Summary: The significant effects of age, body dimensions and seat configuration on rear seat passenger posture were identified. The models can be used to accurately position computational human models or crash test dummies for older passengers in known rear seat configurations.

Advanced simulation noise model for modern fighter aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikelheimer, Bruce

2005-09-01

NoiseMap currently represents the state of the art for military airfield noise analysis. While this model is sufficient for the current fleet of aircraft, it has limits in its capability to model the new generation of fighter aircraft like the JSF and the F-22. These aircraft's high-powered engines produce noise with significant nonlinear content. Combining this with their ability to vector the thrust means they have noise characteristics that are outside of the basic modeling assumptions of the currently available noise models. Wyle Laboratories, Penn State University, and University of Alabama are in the process of developing a new noise propagation model for the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program. Source characterization will be through complete spheres (or hemispheres if there is not sufficient data) for each aircraft state (including thrust vector angles). Fixed and rotor wing aircraft will be included. Broadband, narrowband, and pure tone propagation will be included. The model will account for complex terrain and weather effects, as well as the effects of nonlinear propagation. It will be a complete model capable of handling a range of noise sources from small subsonic general aviation aircraft to the latest fighter aircraft like the JSF.

A new model of physical evolution of Jupiter-family comets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickman, H.; Szutowicz, S.; Wójcikowski, K.

2014-07-01

We aim to find the statistical physical lifetimes of Jupiter Family comets. For this purpose, we try to model the processes that govern the dynamical and physical evolution of comets. We pay special attention to physical evolution; attempts at such modelling have been made before, but we propose a more accurate model, which will include more physical effects. The model is tested on a sample of fictitious comets based on real Jupiter Family comets with some orbital elements changed to a state before the capture by Jupiter. We model four different physical effects: erosion by sublimation, dust mantling, rejuvenation (mantle blow-off), and splitting. While for sublimation and splitting there already are some models, like di Sisto et. al. (2009), and we only wish to make them more accurate, dust mantling and rejuvenation have not been included in previous, statistical physical evolution models. Each of these effects depends on one or more tunable parameters, which we establish by choosing the model that best fits the observed comet sample in a way similar to di Sisto et. al. (2009). In contrast to di Sisto et. al., our comparison also involves the observed active fractions vs. nuclear radii.

QUAGMIRE v1.3: a quasi-geostrophic model for investigating rotating fluids experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P. D.; Haine, T. W. N.; Read, P. L.; Lewis, S. R.; Yamazaki, Y. H.

2009-04-01

The QUAGMIRE model has recently been made freely available for public use. QUAGMIRE is a quasi-geostrophic numerical model for performing fast, high-resolution simulations of multi-layer rotating annulus laboratory experiments on a desktop personal computer. This presentation describes the model's main features. QUAGMIRE uses a hybrid finite-difference/spectral approach to numerically integrate the coupled nonlinear partial differential equations of motion in cylindrical geometry in each layer. Version 1.3 implements the special case of two fluid layers of equal resting depths. The flow is forced either by a differentially rotating lid, or by relaxation to specified streamfunction or potential vorticity fields, or both. Dissipation is achieved through Ekman layer pumping and suction at the horizontal boundaries, including the internal interface. The effects of weak interfacial tension are included, as well as the linear topographic beta-effect and the quadratic centripetal beta-effect. Stochastic forcing may optionally be activated, to represent approximately the effects of random unresolved features. A leapfrog time stepping scheme is used, with a Robert filter. Flows simulated by the model agree well with those observed in the corresponding laboratory experiments.

QUAGMIRE v1.3: a quasi-geostrophic model for investigating rotating fluids experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P. D.; Haine, T. W. N.; Read, P. L.; Lewis, S. R.; Yamazaki, Y. H.

2008-09-01

QUAGMIRE is a quasi-geostrophic numerical model for performing fast, high-resolution simulations of multi-layer rotating annulus laboratory experiments on a desktop personal computer. The model uses a hybrid finite-difference/spectral approach to numerically integrate the coupled nonlinear partial differential equations of motion in cylindrical geometry in each layer. Version 1.3 implements the special case of two fluid layers of equal resting depths. The flow is forced either by a differentially rotating lid, or by relaxation to specified streamfunction or potential vorticity fields, or both. Dissipation is achieved through Ekman layer pumping and suction at the horizontal boundaries, including the internal interface. The effects of weak interfacial tension are included, as well as the linear topographic beta-effect and the quadratic centripetal beta-effect. Stochastic forcing may optionally be activated, to represent approximately the effects of random unresolved features. A leapfrog time stepping scheme is used, with a Robert filter. Flows simulated by the model agree well with those observed in the corresponding laboratory experiments.

QUAGMIRE v1.3: a quasi-geostrophic model for investigating rotating fluids experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P. D.; Haine, T. W. N.; Read, P. L.; Lewis, S. R.; Yamazaki, Y. H.

2009-02-01

QUAGMIRE is a quasi-geostrophic numerical model for performing fast, high-resolution simulations of multi-layer rotating annulus laboratory experiments on a desktop personal computer. The model uses a hybrid finite-difference/spectral approach to numerically integrate the coupled nonlinear partial differential equations of motion in cylindrical geometry in each layer. Version 1.3 implements the special case of two fluid layers of equal resting depths. The flow is forced either by a differentially rotating lid, or by relaxation to specified streamfunction or potential vorticity fields, or both. Dissipation is achieved through Ekman layer pumping and suction at the horizontal boundaries, including the internal interface. The effects of weak interfacial tension are included, as well as the linear topographic beta-effect and the quadratic centripetal beta-effect. Stochastic forcing may optionally be activated, to represent approximately the effects of random unresolved features. A leapfrog time stepping scheme is used, with a Robert filter. Flows simulated by the model agree well with those observed in the corresponding laboratory experiments.

Cost-effectiveness in Clostridium difficile treatment decision-making

PubMed Central

Nuijten, Mark JC; Keller, Josbert J; Visser, Caroline E; Redekop, Ken; Claassen, Eric; Speelman, Peter; Pronk, Marja H

2015-01-01

AIM: To develop a framework for the clinical and health economic assessment for management of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). METHODS: CDI has vast economic consequences emphasizing the need for innovative and cost effective solutions, which were aim of this study. A guidance model was developed for coverage decisions and guideline development in CDI. The model included pharmacotherapy with oral metronidazole or oral vancomycin, which is the mainstay for pharmacological treatment of CDI and is recommended by most treatment guidelines. RESULTS: A design for a patient-based cost-effectiveness model was developed, which can be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of current and future treatment strategies in CDI. Patient-based outcomes were extrapolated to the population by including factors like, e.g., person-to-person transmission, isolation precautions and closing and cleaning wards of hospitals. CONCLUSION: The proposed framework for a population-based CDI model may be used for clinical and health economic assessments of CDI guidelines and coverage decisions for emerging treatments for CDI. PMID:26601096

Cost-effectiveness in Clostridium difficile treatment decision-making.

PubMed

Nuijten, Mark Jc; Keller, Josbert J; Visser, Caroline E; Redekop, Ken; Claassen, Eric; Speelman, Peter; Pronk, Marja H

2015-11-16

To develop a framework for the clinical and health economic assessment for management of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). CDI has vast economic consequences emphasizing the need for innovative and cost effective solutions, which were aim of this study. A guidance model was developed for coverage decisions and guideline development in CDI. The model included pharmacotherapy with oral metronidazole or oral vancomycin, which is the mainstay for pharmacological treatment of CDI and is recommended by most treatment guidelines. A design for a patient-based cost-effectiveness model was developed, which can be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of current and future treatment strategies in CDI. Patient-based outcomes were extrapolated to the population by including factors like, e.g., person-to-person transmission, isolation precautions and closing and cleaning wards of hospitals. The proposed framework for a population-based CDI model may be used for clinical and health economic assessments of CDI guidelines and coverage decisions for emerging treatments for CDI.

Conceptual Model of Military Women's Life Events and Well-Being.

PubMed

Segal, Mady W; Lane, Michelle D

2016-01-01

This article presents a life course conceptual model and applies it to the study of military women's experiences and the effect of those life events on their well-being. Of special concern are the effects on women serving in direct combat jobs, as well as in any specialties operating in a hostile environment. Drawing on previous research, the model considers and gives examples of how a woman's well-being is affected by events in her military career, her family life, and other areas of life. The article emphasizes the effects of intersections of multiple events, as well as how the effects on well-being are mediated or moderated by other factors, including individual characteristics, military contextual variables, and resources. The analysis also includes the impacts of preventative and treatment interventions, as well as of policies, programs, and practices. Based on the model and on previous research, questions for future research are posed. Reprint & Copyright © 2016 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Partnership and empowerment program: a model for patient-centered, comprehensive, and cost-effective care.

PubMed

Brown, Corinne; Bornstein, Elizabeth; Wilcox, Catina

2012-02-01

The Partnership and Empowerment Program model offers a comprehensive, patient-centered, and cost-effective template for coordinating care for underinsured and uninsured patients with cancer. Attention to effective coordination, including use of internal and external resources, may result in decreased costs of care and improved patient compliance and health outcomes.

Where You Come from or Where You Go? Distinguishing between School Quality and the Effectiveness of Teacher Preparation Program Graduates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mihaly, Kata; McCaffrey, Daniel; Sass, Tim R.; Lockwood, J. R.

2013-01-01

We consider the challenges and implications of controlling for school contextual bias when modeling teacher preparation program effects. Because teachers are not randomly distributed across schools, failing to account for contextual factors in achievement models could bias preparation program estimates. Including school fixed effects controls for…

Improving Teacher Attitude and Morale through Maintaining Teacher Effectiveness: An Indiana Staff Development Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilman, David A.; And Others

The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of Maintaining Teaching Effectiveness, a staff development model, upon public school educators' attitudes toward various professional and personal factors. The techniques used for the project included a collegial support network and peer coaching. A total of 24 educators participated from…

Extend MANPADS M&S Capabilities to Include Energetic Materials, Fragmentation Effects, and Wing Flutter Response

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-31

MANPADS missile is modeled using LSDYNA . It has 187600 nodes, 52802 shell elements with 13 shell materials, 112200 solid elements with 1804 solid...model capability that includes impact, detonation, penetration, and wing flutter response. This work extends an existing body on body missile model...the missile as well as the expansion of the surrounding fluids was modeled in the Eulerian domain. The Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL) equation of state was

A New Finite-Conductivity Droplet Evaporation Model Including Liquid Turbulence Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balasubramanyam, M. S.; Chen, C. P.; Trinh, H. P.

2006-01-01

A new approach to account for finite thermal conductivity and turbulence effects within atomizing droplets of an evaporating spray is presented in this paper. The model is an extension of the T-blob and T-TAB atomization/spray model of Trinh and Chen [9]. This finite conductivity model is based on the two-temperature film theory in which the turbulence characteristics of the droplet are used to estimate the effective thermal diffusivity for the liquid-side film thickness. Both one-way and two-way coupled calculations were performed to investigate the performance cf this model against the published experimental data.

Computing Linear Mathematical Models Of Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duke, Eugene L.; Antoniewicz, Robert F.; Krambeer, Keith D.

1991-01-01

Derivation and Definition of Linear Aircraft Model (LINEAR) computer program provides user with powerful, and flexible, standard, documented, and verified software tool for linearization of mathematical models of aerodynamics of aircraft. Intended for use in software tool to drive linear analysis of stability and design of control laws for aircraft. Capable of both extracting such linearized engine effects as net thrust, torque, and gyroscopic effects, and including these effects in linear model of system. Designed to provide easy selection of state, control, and observation variables used in particular model. Also provides flexibility of allowing alternate formulations of both state and observation equations. Written in FORTRAN.

Genetic parameters for direct and maternal calving ease in Walloon dairy cattle based on linear and threshold models.

PubMed

Vanderick, S; Troch, T; Gillon, A; Glorieux, G; Gengler, N

2014-12-01

Calving ease scores from Holstein dairy cattle in the Walloon Region of Belgium were analysed using univariate linear and threshold animal models. Variance components and derived genetic parameters were estimated from a data set including 33,155 calving records. Included in the models were season, herd and sex of calf × age of dam classes × group of calvings interaction as fixed effects, herd × year of calving, maternal permanent environment and animal direct and maternal additive genetic as random effects. Models were fitted with the genetic correlation between direct and maternal additive genetic effects either estimated or constrained to zero. Direct heritability for calving ease was approximately 8% with linear models and approximately 12% with threshold models. Maternal heritabilities were approximately 2 and 4%, respectively. Genetic correlation between direct and maternal additive effects was found to be not significantly different from zero. Models were compared in terms of goodness of fit and predictive ability. Criteria of comparison such as mean squared error, correlation between observed and predicted calving ease scores as well as between estimated breeding values were estimated from 85,118 calving records. The results provided few differences between linear and threshold models even though correlations between estimated breeding values from subsets of data for sires with progeny from linear model were 17 and 23% greater for direct and maternal genetic effects, respectively, than from threshold model. For the purpose of genetic evaluation for calving ease in Walloon Holstein dairy cattle, the linear animal model without covariance between direct and maternal additive effects was found to be the best choice. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Mixed effects versus fixed effects modelling of binary data with inter-subject variability.

PubMed

Murphy, Valda; Dunne, Adrian

2005-04-01

The question of whether or not a mixed effects model is required when modelling binary data with inter-subject variability and within subject correlation was reported in this journal by Yano et al. (J. Pharmacokin. Pharmacodyn. 28:389-412 [2001]). That report used simulation experiments to demonstrate that, under certain circumstances, the use of a fixed effects model produced more accurate estimates of the fixed effect parameters than those produced by a mixed effects model. The Laplace approximation to the likelihood was used when fitting the mixed effects model. This paper repeats one of those simulation experiments, with two binary observations recorded for every subject, and uses both the Laplace and the adaptive Gaussian quadrature approximations to the likelihood when fitting the mixed effects model. The results show that the estimates produced using the Laplace approximation include a small number of extreme outliers. This was not the case when using the adaptive Gaussian quadrature approximation. Further examination of these outliers shows that they arise in situations in which the Laplace approximation seriously overestimates the likelihood in an extreme region of the parameter space. It is also demonstrated that when the number of observations per subject is increased from two to three, the estimates based on the Laplace approximation no longer include any extreme outliers. The root mean squared error is a combination of the bias and the variability of the estimates. Increasing the sample size is known to reduce the variability of an estimator with a consequent reduction in its root mean squared error. The estimates based on the fixed effects model are inherently biased and this bias acts as a lower bound for the root mean squared error of these estimates. Consequently, it might be expected that for data sets with a greater number of subjects the estimates based on the mixed effects model would be more accurate than those based on the fixed effects model. This is borne out by the results of a further simulation experiment with an increased number of subjects in each set of data. The difference in the interpretation of the parameters of the fixed and mixed effects models is discussed. It is demonstrated that the mixed effects model and parameter estimates can be used to estimate the parameters of the fixed effects model but not vice versa.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis in R Using a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Framework: A Tutorial.

PubMed

Williams, Claire; Lewsey, James D; Briggs, Andrew H; Mackay, Daniel F

2017-05-01

This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to performing cost-effectiveness analysis using a multi-state modeling approach. Alongside the tutorial, we provide easy-to-use functions in the statistics package R. We argue that this multi-state modeling approach using a package such as R has advantages over approaches where models are built in a spreadsheet package. In particular, using a syntax-based approach means there is a written record of what was done and the calculations are transparent. Reproducing the analysis is straightforward as the syntax just needs to be run again. The approach can be thought of as an alternative way to build a Markov decision-analytic model, which also has the option to use a state-arrival extended approach. In the state-arrival extended multi-state model, a covariate that represents patients' history is included, allowing the Markov property to be tested. We illustrate the building of multi-state survival models, making predictions from the models and assessing fits. We then proceed to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis, including deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Finally, we show how to create 2 common methods of visualizing the results-namely, cost-effectiveness planes and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. The analysis is implemented entirely within R. It is based on adaptions to functions in the existing R package mstate to accommodate parametric multi-state modeling that facilitates extrapolation of survival curves.

Physics and chemistry of antimicrobial behavior of ion-exchanged silver in glass.

PubMed

Borrelli, N F; Senaratne, W; Wei, Y; Petzold, O

2015-02-04

The results of a comprehensive study involving the antimicrobial activity in a silver ion-exchanged glass are presented. The study includes the glass composition, the method of incorporating silver into the glass, the effective concentration of the silver available at the glass surface, and the effect of the ambient environment. A quantitative kinetic model that includes the above factors in predicting the antimicrobial activity is proposed. Finally, experimental data demonstrating antibacterial activity against Staphylococcus aureus with correlation to the predicted model is shown.

Analysis of propellant feedline dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holster, J. L.; Astleford, W. J.; Gerlach, C. R.

1973-01-01

An analytical model and corresponding computer program for studying disturbances of liquid propellants in typical engine feedline systems were developed. The model includes the effects of steady turbulent mean flow, the influence of distributed compliances, the effects of local compliances, and various factors causing structural-hydraulic coupling. The computer program was set up such that the amplitude and phase of the terminal pressure/input excitation is calculated over any desired frequency range for an arbitrary assembly of various feedline components. A user's manual is included.

A systematic review of models used in cost-effectiveness analyses of preventing osteoporotic fractures.

PubMed

Si, L; Winzenberg, T M; Palmer, A J

2014-01-01

This review was aimed at the evolution of health economic models used in evaluations of clinical approaches aimed at preventing osteoporotic fractures. Models have improved, with medical continuance becoming increasingly recognized as a contributor to health and economic outcomes, as well as advancements in epidemiological data. Model-based health economic evaluation studies are increasingly used to investigate the cost-effectiveness of osteoporotic fracture preventions and treatments. The objective of this study was to carry out a systematic review of the evolution of health economic models used in the evaluation of osteoporotic fracture preventions. Electronic searches within MEDLINE and EMBASE were carried out using a predefined search strategy. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to select relevant studies. References listed of included studies were searched to identify any potential study that was not captured in our electronic search. Data on country, interventions, type of fracture prevention, evaluation perspective, type of model, time horizon, fracture sites, expressed costs, types of costs included, and effectiveness measurement were extracted. Seventy-four models were described in 104 publications, of which 69% were European. Earlier models focused mainly on hip, vertebral, and wrist fracture, but later models included multiple fracture sites (humerus, pelvis, tibia, and other fractures). Modeling techniques have evolved from simple decision trees, through deterministic Markov processes to individual patient simulation models accounting for uncertainty in multiple parameters. Treatment continuance has been increasingly taken into account in the models in the last decade. Models have evolved in their complexity and emphasis, with medical continuance becoming increasingly recognized as a contributor to health and economic outcomes. This evolution may be driven in part by the desire to capture all the important differentiating characteristics of medications under scrutiny, as well as the advancement in epidemiological data relevant to osteoporosis fractures.

Can a one-layer optical skin model including melanin and inhomogeneously distributed blood explain spatially resolved diffuse reflectance spectra?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karlsson, Hanna; Pettersson, Anders; Larsson, Marcus; Strömberg, Tomas

2011-02-01

Model based analysis of calibrated diffuse reflectance spectroscopy can be used for determining oxygenation and concentration of skin chromophores. This study aimed at assessing the effect of including melanin in addition to hemoglobin (Hb) as chromophores and compensating for inhomogeneously distributed blood (vessel packaging), in a single-layer skin model. Spectra from four humans were collected during different provocations using a twochannel fiber optic probe with source-detector separations 0.4 and 1.2 mm. Absolute calibrated spectra using data from either a single distance or both distances were analyzed using inverse Monte Carlo for light transport and Levenberg-Marquardt for non-linear fitting. The model fitting was excellent using a single distance. However, the estimated model failed to explain spectra from the other distance. The two-distance model did not fit the data well at either distance. Model fitting was significantly improved including melanin and vessel packaging. The most prominent effect when fitting data from the larger separation compared to the smaller separation was a different light scattering decay with wavelength, while the tissue fraction of Hb and saturation were similar. For modeling spectra at both distances, we propose using either a multi-layer skin model or a more advanced model for the scattering phase function.

Investigating Associations between School Climate and Bullying in Secondary Schools: Multilevel Contextual Effects Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Konishi, Chiaki; Miyazaki, Yasuo; Hymel, Shelley; Waterhouse, Terry

2017-01-01

This study examined how student reports of bullying were related to different dimensions of school climate, at both the school and the student levels, using a contextual effects model in a two-level multilevel modeling framework. Participants included 48,874 secondary students (grades 8 to 12; 24,244 girls) from 76 schools in Western Canada.…

Effect of Turbulence Modeling on Hovering Rotor Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, Seokkwan; Chaderjian, Neal M.; Pulliam, Thomas H.; Holst, Terry L.

2015-01-01

The effect of turbulence models in the off-body grids on the accuracy of solutions for rotor flows in hover has been investigated. Results from the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes and Laminar Off-Body models are compared. Advection of turbulent eddy viscosity has been studied to find the mechanism leading to inaccurate solutions. A coaxial rotor result is also included.

Dyadic, Triadic, and Group Models of Peer Supervision/Consultation: What Are Their Components, and Is There Evidence of Their Effectiveness?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borders, L. DiAnne

2012-01-01

Models that meet the Psychology Board of Australia's definition of peer consultation include dyadic, triadic, and group formats. Components of these models (e.g., goals, theoretical basis, role of leader, members' roles, structure, and steps in procedure, stages in group development) are presented, and evidence of their effectiveness is reviewed.…

Accelerator Technology Division: Annual Report FY 1990

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-05-01

new version of PARMTEQ that includes 3-D space - charge and image- charge effects in the Figure 2.4. Preliminary concept for the SSC RFQ Linac 25...developing a better space - charge model based on the work of Sachercr. We have successfully demonstrated the ability to include off-axis effects in...a way fully consistent with the space - charge forces. Modifying BEDLAM to include these effects will leave almost all of the code (the integrator

Modeling quantum yield, emittance, and surface roughness effects from metallic photocathodes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dimitrov, D. A.; Bell, G. I.; Smedley, J.

Here, detailed measurements of momentum distributions of emitted electrons have allowed the investigation of the thermal limit of the transverse emittance from metal photocathodes. Furthermore, recent developments in material design and growth have resulted in photocathodes that can deliver high quantum efficiency and are sufficiently robust to use in high electric field gradient photoinjectors and free electron lasers. The growth process usually produces photoemissive material layers with rough surface profiles that lead to transverse accelerating fields and possible work function variations, resulting in emittance growth. To better understand the effects of temperature, density of states, and surface roughness on themore » properties of emitted electrons, we have developed realistic three-dimensional models for photocathode materials with grated surface structures. They include general modeling of electron excitation due to photon absorption, charge transport, and emission from flat and rough metallic surfaces. The models also include image charge and field enhancement effects. We report results from simulations with flat and rough surfaces to investigate how electron scattering, controlled roughness, work function variation, and field enhancement affect emission properties. Comparison of simulation results with measurements of the quantum yield and transverse emittance from flat Sb emission surfaces shows the importance of including efficient modeling of photon absorption, temperature effects, and the material density of states to achieve agreement with the experimental data.« less

Modeling quantum yield, emittance, and surface roughness effects from metallic photocathodes

DOE PAGES

Dimitrov, D. A.; Bell, G. I.; Smedley, J.; ...

2017-10-26

Here, detailed measurements of momentum distributions of emitted electrons have allowed the investigation of the thermal limit of the transverse emittance from metal photocathodes. Furthermore, recent developments in material design and growth have resulted in photocathodes that can deliver high quantum efficiency and are sufficiently robust to use in high electric field gradient photoinjectors and free electron lasers. The growth process usually produces photoemissive material layers with rough surface profiles that lead to transverse accelerating fields and possible work function variations, resulting in emittance growth. To better understand the effects of temperature, density of states, and surface roughness on themore » properties of emitted electrons, we have developed realistic three-dimensional models for photocathode materials with grated surface structures. They include general modeling of electron excitation due to photon absorption, charge transport, and emission from flat and rough metallic surfaces. The models also include image charge and field enhancement effects. We report results from simulations with flat and rough surfaces to investigate how electron scattering, controlled roughness, work function variation, and field enhancement affect emission properties. Comparison of simulation results with measurements of the quantum yield and transverse emittance from flat Sb emission surfaces shows the importance of including efficient modeling of photon absorption, temperature effects, and the material density of states to achieve agreement with the experimental data.« less

Modeling vibration response and damping of cables and cabled structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spak, Kaitlin S.; Agnes, Gregory S.; Inman, Daniel J.

2015-02-01

In an effort to model the vibration response of cabled structures, the distributed transfer function method is developed to model cables and a simple cabled structure. The model includes shear effects, tension, and hysteretic damping for modeling of helical stranded cables, and includes a method for modeling cable attachment points using both linear and rotational damping and stiffness. The damped cable model shows agreement with experimental data for four types of stranded cables, and the damped cabled beam model shows agreement with experimental data for the cables attached to a beam structure, as well as improvement over the distributed mass method for cabled structure modeling.

The Effect of Novel Research Activities on Long-term Survival of Temporarily Captive Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus)

PubMed Central

Shuert, Courtney; Horning, Markus; Mellish, Jo-Ann

2015-01-01

Two novel research approaches were developed to facilitate controlled access to, and long-term monitoring of, juvenile Steller sea lions for periods longer than typically afforded by traditional fieldwork. The Transient Juvenile Steller sea lion Project at the Alaska SeaLife Center facilitated nutritional, physiological, and behavioral studies on the platform of temporary captivity. Temporarily captive sea lions (TJs, n = 35) were studied, and were intraperitoneally implanted with Life History Transmitters (LHX tags) to determine causes of mortality post-release. Our goal was to evaluate the potential for long-term impacts of temporary captivity and telemetry implants on the survival of study individuals. A simple open-population Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model was built in program MARK, incorporating resightings of uniquely branded study individuals gathered by several contributing institutions. A priori models were developed to weigh the evidence of effects of experimental treatment on survival with covariates of sex, age, capture age, cohort, and age class. We compared survival of experimental treatment to a control group of n = 27 free-ranging animals (FRs) that were sampled during capture events and immediately released. Sex has previously been show to differentially affect juvenile survival in Steller sea lions. Therefore, sex was included in all models to account for unbalanced sex ratios within the experimental group. Considerable support was identified for the effects of sex, accounting for over 71% of total weight for all a priori models with delta AICc <5, and over 91% of model weight after removal of pretending variables. Overall, most support was found for the most parsimonious model based on sex and excluding experimental treatment. Models including experimental treatment were not supported after post-hoc considerations of model selection criteria. However, given the limited sample size, alternate models including effects of experimental treatments remain possible and effects may yet become apparent in larger sample sizes. PMID:26580549

Acute lung injury and persistent small airway disease in a rabbit model of chlorine inhalation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Musah, Sadiatu; Schlueter, Connie F.; Humphrey, Da

Chlorine is a pulmonary toxicant to which humans can be exposed through accidents or intentional releases. Acute effects of chlorine inhalation in humans and animal models have been well characterized, but less is known about persistent effects of acute, high-level chlorine exposures. In particular, animal models that reproduce the long-term effects suggested to occur in humans are lacking. Here, we report the development of a rabbit model in which both acute and persistent effects of chlorine inhalation can be assessed. Male New Zealand White rabbits were exposed to chlorine while the lungs were mechanically ventilated. After chlorine exposure, the rabbitsmore » were extubated and were allowed to survive for up to 24 h after exposure to 800 ppm chlorine for 4 min to study acute effects or up to 7 days after exposure to 400 ppm for 8 min to study longer term effects. Acute effects observed 6 or 24 h after inhalation of 800 ppm chlorine for 4 min included hypoxemia, pulmonary edema, airway epithelial injury, inflammation, altered baseline lung mechanics, and airway hyperreactivity to inhaled methacholine. Seven days after recovery from inhalation of 400 ppm chlorine for 8 min, rabbits exhibited mild hypoxemia, increased area of pressure–volume loops, and airway hyperreactivity. Lung histology 7 days after chlorine exposure revealed abnormalities in the small airways, including inflammation and sporadic bronchiolitis obliterans lesions. Immunostaining showed a paucity of club and ciliated cells in the epithelium at these sites. These results suggest that small airway disease may be an important component of persistent respiratory abnormalities that occur following acute chlorine exposure. This non-rodent chlorine exposure model should prove useful for studying persistent effects of acute chlorine exposure and for assessing efficacy of countermeasures for chlorine-induced lung injury. - Highlights: • A novel rabbit model of chlorine-induced lung disease was developed. • Acute effects of chlorine were pulmonary edema, hypoxemia and impaired lung function. • Persistent small airway disease developed following recovery from acute injury. • Small airway disease included inflammation and bronchiolitis obliterans lesions. • The model should be useful for studying chlorine lung injury and testing treatments.« less

Specification for a surface-search radar-detection-range model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hattan, Claude P.

1990-09-01

A model that predicts surface-search radar detection range versus a variety of combatants has been developed at the Naval Ocean Systems Center. This model uses a simplified ship radar cross section (RCS) model and the U.S. Navy Oceanographic and Atmospheric Mission Library Standard Electromagnetic Propagation Model. It provides the user with a method of assessing the effects of the environment of the performance of a surface-search radar system. The software implementation of the model is written in ANSI FORTRAN 77, with MIL-STD-1753 extensions. The program provides the user with a table of expected detection ranges when the model is supplied with the proper environmental radar system inputs. The target model includes the variation in RCS as a function of aspect angle and the distribution of reflected radar energy as a function of height above the waterline. The modeled propagation effects include refraction caused by a multisegmented refractivity profile, sea-surface roughness caused by local winds, evaporation ducting, and surface-based ducts caused by atmospheric layering.

Universal core model for multiple-gate field-effect transistors with short channel and quantum mechanical effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Yong Hyeon; Bae, Min Soo; Park, Chuntaek; Park, Joung Won; Park, Hyunwoo; Lee, Yong Ju; Yun, Ilgu

2018-06-01

A universal core model for multiple-gate (MG) field-effect transistors (FETs) with short channel effects (SCEs) and quantum mechanical effects (QMEs) is proposed. By using a Young’s approximation based solution for one-dimensional Poisson’s equations the total inversion charge density (Q inv ) in the channel is modeled for double-gate (DG) and surrounding-gate SG (SG) FETs, following which a universal charge model is derived based on the similarity of the solutions, including for quadruple-gate (QG) FETs. For triple-gate (TG) FETs, the average of DG and QG FETs are used. A SCEs model is also proposed considering the potential difference between the channel’s surface and center. Finally, a QMEs model for MG FETs is developed using the quantum correction compact model. The proposed universal core model is validated on commercially available three-dimensional ATLAS numerical simulations.

Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

2016-04-01

Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

Joint Effects of Ambient Air Pollutants on Pediatric Asthma ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background: Because ambient air pollution exposure occurs in the form of mixtures, consideration of joint effects of multiple pollutants may advance our understanding of air pollution health effects. Methods: We assessed the joint effect of selected ambient air pollutant combinations (groups of oxidant, secondary, traffic, power plant, and criteria pollutants constructed using combinations of criteria gases, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and PM2.5 components) on warm season pediatric asthma emergency department (ED) visits in Atlanta during 1998-2004. Joint effects were assessed using multi-pollutant Poisson generalized linear models controlling for time trends, meteorology and daily non-asthma respiratory ED visit counts. Rate ratios (RR) were calculated for the combined effect of an interquartile-range increment in the concentration of each pollutant. Results: Increases in all of the selected pollutant combinations were associated with increases in pediatric asthma ED visits [e.g., joint effect rate ratio=1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.06-1.21) for criteria pollutants (including ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and PM2.5)]. Joint effect estimates were smaller than estimates calculated based on summing results from single-pollutant models, due to control for confounding. Compared with models without interactions, joint effect estimates from models including first-order pollutant interactions were similar for oxidant a

Mind-Body Interventions for Irritable Bowel Syndrome Patients in the Chinese Population: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Weidong; Wang, Fang; Fan, Feng; Sedas, Ana Cristina; Wang, Jian

2017-04-01

The aim of this study is to identify and assess evidence related to the efficacy of mind-body interventions on irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) in the Chinese population. Drawn from Chinese databases, nine RCTs and three Q-E studies were included in the systematic review. The methodological quality of RCTs was evaluated based on the following criteria: adequate sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding, completeness of outcome data, selective reporting, and other potential biases. For continuous variables, the effect size (ES) was determined by calculating the standardized mean difference between groups. For dichotomous variables, the ES was determined by calculating the risk ratio (RR) between groups. Given the heterogeneity between the trials and the small number of studies included, both random effects and fixed effects models were used. The inverse variance method was used for pooling. Statistical analyses were performed using Review Manager version 5.0. The total number of papers identified was 710: 462 from English language databases and 248 from Chinese language databases. Twelve studies met our eligibility criteria. Among the studies selected, three were Q-E studies the rest RCTs. Two studies described the randomization process. None of the studies reported allocation concealment nor blinding. Seven studies reported no dropouts. One of the studies mentioned the total amount of dropouts; though the reason for dropping out was not referenced. The other four studies did not clearly report dropouts. With the exception of three studies, there was inadequate information to determine biased reporting for the majority; the level of risk for bias in these studies is unclear. Finally, six meta-analyses were performed. One was conducted with four randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that used cure rate as outcome measures to evaluate gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, which suggested that mind-body interventions were effective in improving GI symptoms (random effects model: RR = 1.08; 95 % CI 1.01 to 1.17; fixed effects model: RR = 1.07; 95 % CI 1.01 to 1.12). The remaining five were conducted in three RCTs, which suggested that mind-body interventions were effective in improving several aspects of quality of life, including interference with activity (random effects and fixed effects models: SMD = 0.64; 95 % CI 0.41 to 0.86), body image (random effects model: SMD = 0.36; 95 % CI 0.06 to 0.67; fixed effects model: SMD = 0.33; 95 % CI 0.11 to 0.55), health worry (random effects and fixed effects models: SMD = 0.67; 95 % CI 0.44 to 0.90), food avoidance (random effects and fixed effects models: SMD = 0.45; 95 % CI 0.23 to 0.68), and social reaction (random effects model: SMD = 0.79; 95 % CI 0.47 to 1.12; fixed effects model: SMD = 0.78; 95 % CI 0.55 to 1.01), as measured by Irritable Bowel Syndrome Quality of Life Questionnaire ( IBS-QOL). Mind-body interventions may have the potential to improve GI symptoms in Chinese patients with IBS. The improvement of GI symptoms was also accompanied with the improvement of various outcomes, including depression, anxiety, and quality of life, just to mention a few. However, the published studies generally had significant methodological limitations. Future clinical trials with rigorous research design are needed in this field. More studies focusing on the mind-body interventions originated in China, such as tai chi and qi gong should be encouraged.

Bayesian inference for two-part mixed-effects model using skew distributions, with application to longitudinal semicontinuous alcohol data.

PubMed

Xing, Dongyuan; Huang, Yangxin; Chen, Henian; Zhu, Yiliang; Dagne, Getachew A; Baldwin, Julie

2017-08-01

Semicontinuous data featured with an excessive proportion of zeros and right-skewed continuous positive values arise frequently in practice. One example would be the substance abuse/dependence symptoms data for which a substantial proportion of subjects investigated may report zero. Two-part mixed-effects models have been developed to analyze repeated measures of semicontinuous data from longitudinal studies. In this paper, we propose a flexible two-part mixed-effects model with skew distributions for correlated semicontinuous alcohol data under the framework of a Bayesian approach. The proposed model specification consists of two mixed-effects models linked by the correlated random effects: (i) a model on the occurrence of positive values using a generalized logistic mixed-effects model (Part I); and (ii) a model on the intensity of positive values using a linear mixed-effects model where the model errors follow skew distributions including skew- t and skew-normal distributions (Part II). The proposed method is illustrated with an alcohol abuse/dependence symptoms data from a longitudinal observational study, and the analytic results are reported by comparing potential models under different random-effects structures. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of the proposed models and method.

Turbulent Flow past High Temperature Surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehmedagic, Igbal; Thangam, Siva; Carlucci, Pasquale; Buckley, Liam; Carlucci, Donald

2014-11-01

Flow over high-temperature surfaces subject to wall heating is analyzed with applications to projectile design. In this study, computations are performed using an anisotropic Reynolds-stress model to study flow past surfaces that are subject to radiative flux. The model utilizes a phenomenological treatment of the energy spectrum and diffusivities of momentum and heat to include the effects of wall heat transfer and radiative exchange. The radiative transport is modeled using Eddington approximation including the weighted effect of nongrayness of the fluid. The time-averaged equations of motion and energy are solved using the modeled form of transport equations for the turbulence kinetic energy and the scalar form of turbulence dissipation with an efficient finite-volume algorithm. The model is applied for available test cases to validate its predictive capabilities for capturing the effects of wall heat transfer. Computational results are compared with experimental data available in the literature. Applications involving the design of projectiles are summarized. Funded in part by U.S. Army, ARDEC.

Scientific analysis is essential to assess biofuel policy effects: in response to the paper by Kim and Dale on "Indirect land use change for biofuels: Testing predictions and improving analytical methodologies"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kline, Keith L; Oladosu, Gbadebo A; Dale, Virginia H

2011-01-01

Vigorous debate on the effects of biofuels derives largely from the changes in land use estimated using economic models designed mainly for the analysis of agricultural trade and markets. The models referenced for land-use change (LUC) analysis in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Final Rule on the Renewable Fuel Standard include GTAP, FAPRI-CARD, and FASOM. To address bioenergy impacts, these models were expanded and modified to facilitate simulations of hypothesized LUC. However, even when models use similar basic assumptions and data, the range of LUC results can vary by ten-fold or more. While the market dynamics simulated in these modelsmore » include processes that are important in estimating effects of biofuel policies, the models have not been validated for estimating land-use changes and employ crucial assumptions and simplifications that contradict empirical evidence.« less

Forward Modeling of Large-scale Structure: An Open-source Approach with Halotools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hearin, Andrew P.; Campbell, Duncan; Tollerud, Erik

We present the first stable release of Halotools (v0.2), a community-driven Python package designed to build and test models of the galaxy-halo connection. Halotools provides a modular platform for creating mock universes of galaxies starting from a catalog of dark matter halos obtained from a cosmological simulation. The package supports many of the common forms used to describe galaxy-halo models: the halo occupation distribution, the conditional luminosity function, abundance matching, and alternatives to these models that include effects such as environmental quenching or variable galaxy assembly bias. Satellite galaxies can be modeled to live in subhalos or to follow custommore » number density profiles within their halos, including spatial and/or velocity bias with respect to the dark matter profile. The package has an optimized toolkit to make mock observations on a synthetic galaxy population—including galaxy clustering, galaxy–galaxy lensing, galaxy group identification, RSD multipoles, void statistics, pairwise velocities and others—allowing direct comparison to observations. Halotools is object-oriented, enabling complex models to be built from a set of simple, interchangeable components, including those of your own creation. Halotools has an automated testing suite and is exhaustively documented on http://halotools.readthedocs.io, which includes quickstart guides, source code notes and a large collection of tutorials. The documentation is effectively an online textbook on how to build and study empirical models of galaxy formation with Python.« less

Quantification of the multi-streaming effect in redshift space distortion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yi; Zhang, Pengjie; Oh, Minji

2017-05-01

Both multi-streaming (random motion) and bulk motion cause the Finger-of-God (FoG) effect in redshift space distortion (RSD). We apply a direct measurement of the multi-streaming effect in RSD from simulations, proving that it induces an additional, non-negligible FoG damping to the redshift space density power spectrum. We show that, including the multi-streaming effect, the RSD modelling is significantly improved. We also provide a theoretical explanation based on halo model for the measured effect, including a fitting formula with one to two free parameters. The improved understanding of FoG helps break the fσ8-σv degeneracy in RSD cosmology, and has the potential of significantly improving cosmological constraints.

Propagation Effects of Importance to the NASA/JPL Deep Space Network (DSN)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slobin, Steve

1999-01-01

This paper presents Propagation Effects of Importance To The NASA/JPL Deep Space Network (DSN). The topics include: 1) DSN Antennas; 2) Deep Space Telecom Link Basics; 3) DSN Propagation Region of Interest; 4) Ka-Band Weather Effects Models and Examples; 5) Existing Goldstone Ka-Band Atmosphere Attenuation Model; 6) Existing Goldstone Atmosphere Noise Temperature Model; and 7) Ka-Band delta (G/T) Relative to Vacuum Condition. This paper summarizes the topics above.

Turbulence: The chief outstanding difficulty of our subject

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradshaw, Peter

1992-01-01

A review of interesting current topics in turbulence research is decorated with examples of popular fallacies about the behavior of turbulence. Topics include the status of the Law of the Wall, especially in compressible flow; analogies between the effects of Reynolds numbers, pressure gradient, unsteadiness and roughness change; the status of Kolmogorov's universal equilibrium theory and local isotropy of the small eddies; turbulence modelling, with reference to universality, pressure-strain modelling and the dissipation equation; and chaos. Fallacies include the mixing-length concept; the effect of pressure gradient on Reynolds shear stress; the separability of time and space derivatives; models of the dissipation equation; and chaos.

A holographic model of the Kondo effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdmenger, Johanna; Hoyos, Carlos; O'Bannon, Andy; Wu, Jackson

2013-12-01

We propose a model of the Kondo effect based on the Anti-de Sitter/Conformal Field Theory (AdS/CFT) correspondence, also known as holography. The Kondo effect is the screening of a magnetic impurity coupled anti-ferromagnetically to a bath of conduction electrons at low temperatures. In a (1+1)-dimensional CFT description, the Kondo effect is a renormalization group flow triggered by a marginally relevant (0+1)-dimensional operator between two fixed points with the same Kac-Moody current algebra. In the large- N limit, with spin SU( N) and charge U(1) symmetries, the Kondo effect appears as a (0+1)-dimensional second-order mean-field transition in which the U(1) charge symmetry is spontaneously broken. Our holographic model, which combines the CFT and large- N descriptions, is a Chern-Simons gauge field in (2+1)-dimensional AdS space, AdS 3, dual to the Kac-Moody current, coupled to a holographic superconductor along an AdS 2 sub-space. Our model exhibits several characteristic features of the Kondo effect, including a dynamically generated scale, a resistivity with power-law behavior in temperature at low temperatures, and a spectral flow producing a phase shift. Our holographic Kondo model may be useful for studying many open problems involving impurities, including for example the Kondo lattice problem.

An Overview of the Effectiveness of Adolescent Substance Abuse Treatment Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muck, Randolph; Zempolich, Kristin A.; Titus, Janet C.; Fishman, Marc; Godley, Mark D.; Schwebel, Robert

2001-01-01

Describes current approaches to adolescent substance abuse treatment, including the 12-step treatment approach, behavioral treatment approach, family-based treatment approach, and therapeutic community approach. Summarizes research that assesses the effectiveness of these models, offering findings from the Center for Substance Abuse Treatment's…

Effects of energy conservation on equilibrium properties of hot asymmetric nuclear matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhen; Ko, Che Ming

2018-01-01

Based on the relativistic Vlasov-Uehling-Uhlenbeck transport model, which includes relativistic scalar and vector potentials on baryons, we consider an N -Δ -π system in a box with periodic boundary conditions to study the effects of energy conservation in particle production and absorption processes on the equilibrium properties of the system. The density and temperature of the matter in the box are taken to be similar to the hot dense matter formed in heavy ion collisions at intermediate energies. We find that to maintain the equilibrium numbers of N ,Δ , and π , which depend on the mean-field potentials of N and Δ , we must include these potentials in the energy conservation condition that determines the momenta of outgoing particles after a scattering or decay process. We further find that the baryon scalar potentials mainly affect the Δ and pion equilibrium numbers, while the baryon vector potentials have considerable effect on the effective charged pion ratio at equilibrium. Our results thus indicate that it is essential to include in the transport model the effect of potentials in the energy conservation of a scattering or decay process, which is ignored in most transport models, for studying pion production in heavy ion collisions.

A Subgrid Approach for Modeling Microtopography Effects on Overland Flow: Application to Polygonal Tundra: Modeling Archive

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahmad Jan; Ethan Coon; Scott Painter

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic manuscript under review. A new subgrid model was implemented in the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) to capture micro-topography effects on surface flow. A comparison of the fine-scale simulations on seven individual ice-wedge polygons and a cluster of polygons was made between the results of the subgrid model and no-subgrid model. Our finding confirms that the effects of small-scale spatial heterogeneities can be captured in the coarsened models. The dataset contains meshes, inputfiles, subgrid parameters used in the simulations. Python scripts for post-processing and files for geometric analyses are also included.

The occurrence of Simpson's paradox if site-level effect was ignored in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database.

PubMed

Jiamsakul, Awachana; Kerr, Stephen J; Chandrasekaran, Ezhilarasi; Huelgas, Aizobelle; Taecharoenkul, Sineenart; Teeraananchai, Sirinya; Wan, Gang; Ly, Penh Sun; Kiertiburanakul, Sasisopin; Law, Matthew

2016-08-01

In multisite human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) observational cohorts, clustering of observations often occurs within sites. Ignoring clustering may lead to "Simpson's paradox" (SP) where the trend observed in the aggregated data is reversed when the groups are separated. This study aimed to investigate the SP in an Asian HIV cohort and the effects of site-level adjustment through various Cox regression models. Survival time from combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation was analyzed using four Cox models: (1) no site adjustment; (2) site as a fixed effect; (3) stratification through site; and (4) shared frailty on site. A total of 6,454 patients were included from 23 sites in Asia. SP was evident in the year of cART initiation variable. Model (1) shows the hazard ratio (HR) for years 2010-2014 was higher than the HR for 2006-2009, compared to 2003-2005 (HR = 0.68 vs. 0.61). Models (2)-(4) consistently implied greater improvement in survival for those who initiated in 2010-2014 than 2006-2009 contrasting findings from model (1). The effects of other significant covariates on survival were similar across four models. Ignoring site can lead to SP causing reversal of treatment effects. Greater emphasis should be made to include site in survival models when possible. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ongel, Aybike, E-mail: aybike.ongel@eng.bahcesehir.edu.tr; Sezgin, Fatih, E-mail: fatih.sezgin@ibb.gov.tr

In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed inmore » the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.« less

Screen and clean: a tool for identifying interactions in genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Wu, Jing; Devlin, Bernie; Ringquist, Steven; Trucco, Massimo; Roeder, Kathryn

2010-04-01

Epistasis could be an important source of risk for disease. How interacting loci might be discovered is an open question for genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Most researchers limit their statistical analyses to testing individual pairwise interactions (i.e., marginal tests for association). A more effective means of identifying important predictors is to fit models that include many predictors simultaneously (i.e., higher-dimensional models). We explore a procedure called screen and clean (SC) for identifying liability loci, including interactions, by using the lasso procedure, which is a model selection tool for high-dimensional regression. We approach the problem by using a varying dictionary consisting of terms to include in the model. In the first step the lasso dictionary includes only main effects. The most promising single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are identified using a screening procedure. Next the lasso dictionary is adjusted to include these main effects and the corresponding interaction terms. Again, promising terms are identified using lasso screening. Then significant terms are identified through the cleaning process. Implementation of SC for GWAS requires algorithms to explore the complex model space induced by the many SNPs genotyped and their interactions. We propose and explore a set of algorithms and find that SC successfully controls Type I error while yielding good power to identify risk loci and their interactions. When the method is applied to data obtained from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium study of Type 1 Diabetes it uncovers evidence supporting interaction within the HLA class II region as well as within Chromosome 12q24.

Steady-state numerical groundwater flow model of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Lynette E.; Masbruch, Melissa D.; Sweetkind, Donald S.; Buto, Susan G.

2014-01-01

Examples of potential use of the model to investigate the groundwater system include (1) the effects of different recharge, (2) different interpretations of the extent or offset of long faults or fault zones, and (3) different conceptual models of the spatial variation of hydraulic properties. The model can also be used to examine the ultimate effects of groundwater withdrawals on a regional scale, to provide boundary conditions for local-scale models, and to guide data collection.

FARSITE: Fire Area Simulator-model development and evaluation

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney

1998-01-01

A computer simulation model, FARSITE, includes existing fire behavior models for surface, crown, spotting, point-source fire acceleration, and fuel moisture. The model's components and assumptions are documented. Simulations were run for simple conditions that illustrate the effect of individual fire behavior models on two-dimensional fire growth.

PMT waveform modeling at the Daya Bay experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sören, Jetter; Dan, Dwyer; Jiang, Wen-Qi; Liu, Da-Wei; Wang, Yi-Fang; Wang, Zhi-Min; Wen, Liang-Jian

2012-08-01

Detailed measurements of Hamamatsu R5912 photomultiplier signals are presented, including the single photoelectron charge response, waveform shape, nonlinearity, saturation, overshoot, oscillation, prepulsing, and afterpulsing. The results were used to build a detailed model of the PMT signal characteristics over a wide range of light intensities. Including the PMT model in simulated Daya Bay particle interactions shows no significant systematic effects that are detrimental to the experimental sensitivity.

The pros and cons of code validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bobbitt, Percy J.

1988-01-01

Computational and wind tunnel error sources are examined and quantified using specific calculations of experimental data, and a substantial comparison of theoretical and experimental results, or a code validation, is discussed. Wind tunnel error sources considered include wall interference, sting effects, Reynolds number effects, flow quality and transition, and instrumentation such as strain gage balances, electronically scanned pressure systems, hot film gages, hot wire anemometers, and laser velocimeters. Computational error sources include math model equation sets, the solution algorithm, artificial viscosity/dissipation, boundary conditions, the uniqueness of solutions, grid resolution, turbulence modeling, and Reynolds number effects. It is concluded that, although improvements in theory are being made more quickly than in experiments, wind tunnel research has the advantage of the more realistic transition process of a right turbulence model in a free-transition test.

Elastic and viscoelastic model of the stress history of sedimentary rocks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Warpinski, N.R.

A model has been developed to calculate the elastic and viscoelastic stresses which develop in rocks at depth due to burial, uplift and diagenesis. This model includes the effect of the overburden load, tectonic or geometric strains, thermal strains, varying material properties, pore pressure variations, and viscoeleastic relaxation. Calculations for some simple examples are given to show the contributions of the individual stress components due to gravity, tectonics, thermal effects and pore pressure. A complete stress history for Mesaverde rocks in the Piceance basin is calculated based on available burial history, thermal history and expected pore pressure, material property andmore » tectonic strain variations through time. These calculations show the importance of including material property changes and viscoelastic effects. 15 refs., 48 figs.« less

Predicting the effects of unmodeled dynamics on an aircraft flight control system design using eigenspace assignment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Eric N.; Davidson, John B.; Murphy, Patrick C.

1994-01-01

When using eigenspace assignment to design an aircraft flight control system, one must first develop a model of the plant. Certain questions arise when creating this model as to which dynamics of the plant need to be included in the model and which dynamics can be left out or approximated. The answers to these questions are important because a poor choice can lead to closed-loop dynamics that are unpredicted by the design model. To alleviate this problem, a method has been developed for predicting the effect of not including certain dynamics in the design model on the final closed-loop eigenspace. This development provides insight as to which characteristics of unmodeled dynamics will ultimately affect the closed-loop rigid-body dynamics. What results from this insight is a guide for eigenstructure control law designers to aid them in determining which dynamics need or do not need to be included and a new way to include these dynamics in the flight control system design model to achieve a required accuracy in the closed-loop rigid-body dynamics. The method is illustrated for a lateral-directional flight control system design using eigenspace assignment for the NASA High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV).

Extended Fitts' model of pointing time in eye-gaze input system - Incorporating effects of target shape and movement direction into modeling.

PubMed

Murata, Atsuo; Fukunaga, Daichi

2018-04-01

This study attempted to investigate the effects of the target shape and the movement direction on the pointing time using an eye-gaze input system and extend Fitts' model so that these factors are incorporated into the model and the predictive power of Fitts' model is enhanced. The target shape, the target size, the movement distance, and the direction of target presentation were set as within-subject experimental variables. The target shape included: a circle, and rectangles with an aspect ratio of 1:1, 1:2, 1:3, and 1:4. The movement direction included eight directions: upper, lower, left, right, upper left, upper right, lower left, and lower right. On the basis of the data for identifying the effects of the target shape and the movement direction on the pointing time, an attempt was made to develop a generalized and extended Fitts' model that took into account the movement direction and the target shape. As a result, the generalized and extended model was found to fit better to the experimental data, and be more effective for predicting the pointing time for a variety of human-computer interaction (HCI) task using an eye-gaze input system. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A crystal plasticity model incorporating the effects of precipitates in superalloys: Application to tensile, compressive, and cyclic deformation of Inconel 718

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghorbanpour, Saeede; Zecevic, Milovan; Kumar, Anil

An elasto-plastic polycrystal plasticity model is developed and applied to an Inconel 718 (IN718) superalloy that was produced by additive manufacturing (AM). The model takes into account the contributions of solid solution, precipitates shearing, and grain size and shape effects into the initial slip resistance. Non-Schmid effects and backstress are also included in the crystal plasticity model for activating slip. The hardening law for the critical resolved shear stress is based on the evolution of dislocation density. In using the same set of material and physical parameters, the model is compared against a suite of compression, tension, and large-strain cyclicmore » mechanical test data applied in different AM build directions. We demonstrate that the model is capable of predicting the particularities of both monotonic and cyclic deformation to large strains of the alloy, including decreasing hardening rate during monotonic loading, the non-linear unloading upon the load reversal, the Bauschinger effect, the hardening rate change during loading in the reverse direction as well as plastic anisotropy and the concomitant microstructure evolution. It is anticipated that the general model developed here can be applied to other multiphase alloys containing precipitates.« less

A crystal plasticity model incorporating the effects of precipitates in superalloys: Application to tensile, compressive, and cyclic deformation of Inconel 718

DOE PAGES

Ghorbanpour, Saeede; Zecevic, Milovan; Kumar, Anil; ...

2017-09-14

An elasto-plastic polycrystal plasticity model is developed and applied to an Inconel 718 (IN718) superalloy that was produced by additive manufacturing (AM). The model takes into account the contributions of solid solution, precipitates shearing, and grain size and shape effects into the initial slip resistance. Non-Schmid effects and backstress are also included in the crystal plasticity model for activating slip. The hardening law for the critical resolved shear stress is based on the evolution of dislocation density. In using the same set of material and physical parameters, the model is compared against a suite of compression, tension, and large-strain cyclicmore » mechanical test data applied in different AM build directions. We demonstrate that the model is capable of predicting the particularities of both monotonic and cyclic deformation to large strains of the alloy, including decreasing hardening rate during monotonic loading, the non-linear unloading upon the load reversal, the Bauschinger effect, the hardening rate change during loading in the reverse direction as well as plastic anisotropy and the concomitant microstructure evolution. It is anticipated that the general model developed here can be applied to other multiphase alloys containing precipitates.« less

Evaluation of the Effect of Exhausts from Liquid and Solid Rockets on Ozone Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamagiwa, Yoshiki; Ishimaki, Tetsuya

This paper reports the analytical results of the influences of solid rocket and liquid rocket exhausts on ozone layer. It is worried about that the exhausts from solid propellant rockets cause the ozone depletion in the ozone layer. Some researchers try to develop the analytical model of ozone depletion by rocket exhausts to understand its physical phenomena and to find the effective design of rocket to minimize its effect. However, these models do not include the exhausts from liquid rocket although there are many cases to use solid rocket boosters with a liquid rocket at the same time in practical situations. We constructed combined analytical model include the solid rocket exhausts and liquid rocket exhausts to analyze their effects. From the analytical results, we find that the exhausts from liquid rocket suppress the ozone depletion by solid rocket exhausts.

Extended dynamic model for ion diffusion in all-vanadium redox flow battery including the effects of temperature and bulk electrolyte transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badrinarayanan, Rajagopalan; Zhao, Jiyun; Tseng, K. J.; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2014-12-01

As with all redox flow batteries, the Vanadium Redox flow Battery (VRB) can suffer from capacity loss as the vanadium ions diffuse at different rates leading to a build-up on one half-cell and dilution on the other. In this paper an extended dynamic model of the vanadium ion transfer is developed including the effect of temperature and bulk electrolyte transfer. The model is used to simulate capacity decay for a range of different ion exchange membranes that are being used in the VRB. The simulations show that Selemion CMV and Nafion 115 membranes have similar behavior where the impact of temperature on capacity loss is highest within the first 100 cycles. The results for Selemion AMV membrane however are seen to be very different where the capacity loss at different temperatures observed to increase linearly with increasing charging/discharging cycles. The model is made more comprehensive by including the effect of bulk electrolyte transfer. A volume change of 19% is observed in each half-cell for Nafion 115 membrane based on the simulation parameters. The effect of this change in volume directly affects concentration, and the characteristics are analyzed for each vanadium species as well as the overall concentration in the half-cells.

Incorporation of Electrical Systems Models Into an Existing Thermodynamic Cycle Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freeh, Josh

2003-01-01

Integration of entire system includes: Fuel cells, motors, propulsors, thermal/power management, compressors, etc. Use of existing, pre-developed NPSS capabilities includes: 1) Optimization tools; 2) Gas turbine models for hybrid systems; 3) Increased interplay between subsystems; 4) Off-design modeling capabilities; 5) Altitude effects; and 6) Existing transient modeling architecture. Other factors inclde: 1) Easier transfer between users and groups of users; 2) General aerospace industry acceptance and familiarity; and 3) Flexible analysis tool that can also be used for ground power applications.

On the additive and dominant variance and covariance of individuals within the genomic selection scope.

PubMed

Vitezica, Zulma G; Varona, Luis; Legarra, Andres

2013-12-01

Genomic evaluation models can fit additive and dominant SNP effects. Under quantitative genetics theory, additive or "breeding" values of individuals are generated by substitution effects, which involve both "biological" additive and dominant effects of the markers. Dominance deviations include only a portion of the biological dominant effects of the markers. Additive variance includes variation due to the additive and dominant effects of the markers. We describe a matrix of dominant genomic relationships across individuals, D, which is similar to the G matrix used in genomic best linear unbiased prediction. This matrix can be used in a mixed-model context for genomic evaluations or to estimate dominant and additive variances in the population. From the "genotypic" value of individuals, an alternative parameterization defines additive and dominance as the parts attributable to the additive and dominant effect of the markers. This approach underestimates the additive genetic variance and overestimates the dominance variance. Transforming the variances from one model into the other is trivial if the distribution of allelic frequencies is known. We illustrate these results with mouse data (four traits, 1884 mice, and 10,946 markers) and simulated data (2100 individuals and 10,000 markers). Variance components were estimated correctly in the model, considering breeding values and dominance deviations. For the model considering genotypic values, the inclusion of dominant effects biased the estimate of additive variance. Genomic models were more accurate for the estimation of variance components than their pedigree-based counterparts.

Much More than Model Fitting? Evidence for the Heritability of Method Effect Associated with Positively Worded Items of the Life Orientation Test Revised

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alessandri, Guido; Vecchione, Michele; Fagnani, Corrado; Bentler, Peter M.; Barbaranelli, Claudio; Medda, Emanuela; Nistico, Lorenza; Stazi, Maria Antonietta; Caprara, Gian Vittorio

2010-01-01

When a self-report instrument includes a balanced number of positively and negatively worded items, factor analysts often use method effect factors to aid model fitting. One of the most widely investigated sources of method effects stems from the respondent tendencies to agree with an item regardless of its content. The nature of these effects,…

First-order fire effects on herbs and Shrubs: present knowledge and process modeling needs

Treesearch

Kirsten Stephan; Melanie Miller; Matthew B. Dickinson

2010-01-01

Herbaceous plants and shrubs have received little attention in terms of fire effects modeling despite their critical role in ecosystem integrity and resilience after wildfires and prescribed burns. In this paper, we summarize current knowledge of direct effects of fire on herb and shrub (including cacti) vegetative tissues and seed banks, propose key components for...

Guidance for modeling causes and effects in environmental problem solving

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armour, Carl L.; Williamson, Samuel C.

1988-01-01

Environmental problems are difficult to solve because their causes and effects are not easily understood. When attempts are made to analyze causes and effects, the principal challenge is organization of information into a framework that is logical, technically defensible, and easy to understand and communicate. When decisionmakers attempt to solve complex problems before an adequate cause and effect analysis is performed there are serious risks. These risks include: greater reliance on subjective reasoning, lessened chance for scoping an effective problem solving approach, impaired recognition of the need for supplemental information to attain understanding, increased chance for making unsound decisions, and lessened chance for gaining approval and financial support for a program/ Cause and effect relationships can be modeled. This type of modeling has been applied to various environmental problems, including cumulative impact assessment (Dames and Moore 1981; Meehan and Weber 1985; Williamson et al. 1987; Raley et al. 1988) and evaluation of effects of quarrying (Sheate 1986). This guidance for field users was written because of the current interest in documenting cause-effect logic as a part of ecological problem solving. Principal literature sources relating to the modeling approach are: Riggs and Inouye (1975a, b), Erickson (1981), and United States Office of Personnel Management (1986).

SOME EFFECTS OF ADVERTISING AND PRICES ON OPTIMAL INVENTORY POLICY.

DTIC Science & Technology

An inventory model which includes the possibility of advertising (called the basic model) is investigated. This model is a stochastic inventory...generalizations of the basic model are then considered. One generalization considers the situation where the added demand due to advertising is not

A Structural Modeling Approach to a Multilevel Random Coefficients Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rovine, Michael J.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

2000-01-01

Presents a method for estimating the random coefficients model using covariance structure modeling and allowing one to estimate both fixed and random effects. The method is applied to real and simulated data, including marriage data from J. Belsky and M. Rovine (1990). (SLD)

Modular and Stochastic Approaches to Molecular Pathway Models of ATM, TGF beta, and WNT Signaling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; O'Neill, Peter; Ponomarev, Artem; Carra, Claudio; Whalen, Mary; Pluth, Janice M.

2009-01-01

Deterministic pathway models that describe the biochemical interactions of a group of related proteins, their complexes, activation through kinase, etc. are often the basis for many systems biology models. Low dose radiation effects present a unique set of challenges to these models including the importance of stochastic effects due to the nature of radiation tracks and small number of molecules activated, and the search for infrequent events that contribute to cancer risks. We have been studying models of the ATM, TGF -Smad and WNT signaling pathways with the goal of applying pathway models to the investigation of low dose radiation cancer risks. Modeling challenges include introduction of stochastic models of radiation tracks, their relationships to more than one substrate species that perturb pathways, and the identification of a representative set of enzymes that act on the dominant substrates. Because several pathways are activated concurrently by radiation the development of modular pathway approach is of interest.

A flight-dynamic helicopter mathematical model with a single flap-lag-torsion main rotor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takahashi, Marc D.

1990-01-01

A mathematical model of a helicopter system with a single main rotor that includes rigid, hinge-restrained rotor blades with flap, lag, and torsion degrees of freedom is described. The model allows several hinge sequences and two offsets in the hinges. Quasi-steady Greenberg theory is used to calculate the blade-section aerodynamic forces, and inflow effects are accounted for by using three-state nonlinear dynamic inflow model. The motion of the rigid fuselage is defined by six degrees of freedom, and an optional rotor rpm degree of freedom is available. Empennage surfaces and the tail rotor are modeled, and the effect of main-rotor downwash on these elements is included. Model trim linearization, and time-integration operations are described and can be applied to a subset of the model in the rotating or nonrotating coordinate frame. A preliminary validation of the model is made by comparing its results with those of other analytical and experimental studies. This publication presents the results of research compiled in November 1989.

A High Fidelity Approach to Data Simulation for Space Situational Awareness Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagerty, S.; Ellis, H., Jr.

2016-09-01

Space Situational Awareness (SSA) is vital to maintaining our Space Superiority. A high fidelity, time-based simulation tool, PROXOR™ (Proximity Operations and Rendering), supports SSA by generating realistic mission scenarios including sensor frame data with corresponding truth. This is a unique and critical tool for supporting mission architecture studies, new capability (algorithm) development, current/future capability performance analysis, and mission performance prediction. PROXOR™ provides a flexible architecture for sensor and resident space object (RSO) orbital motion and attitude control that simulates SSA, rendezvous and proximity operations scenarios. The major elements of interest are based on the ability to accurately simulate all aspects of the RSO model, viewing geometry, imaging optics, sensor detector, and environmental conditions. These capabilities enhance the realism of mission scenario models and generated mission image data. As an input, PROXOR™ uses a library of 3-D satellite models containing 10+ satellites, including low-earth orbit (e.g., DMSP) and geostationary (e.g., Intelsat) spacecraft, where the spacecraft surface properties are those of actual materials and include Phong and Maxwell-Beard bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) coefficients for accurate radiometric modeling. We calculate the inertial attitude, the changing solar and Earth illumination angles of the satellite, and the viewing angles from the sensor as we propagate the RSO in its orbit. The synthetic satellite image is rendered at high resolution and aggregated to the focal plane resolution resulting in accurate radiometry even when the RSO is a point source. The sensor model includes optical effects from the imaging system [point spread function (PSF) includes aberrations, obscurations, support structures, defocus], detector effects (CCD blooming, left/right bias, fixed pattern noise, image persistence, shot noise, read noise, and quantization noise), and environmental effects (radiation hits with selectable angular distributions and 4-layer atmospheric turbulence model for ground based sensors). We have developed an accurate flash Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) model that supports reconstruction of 3-dimensional information on the RSO. PROXOR™ contains many important imaging effects such as intra-frame smear, realized by oversampling the image in time and capturing target motion and jitter during the integration time.

Systematic Review of Model-Based Economic Evaluations of Treatments for Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Hernandez, Luis; Ozen, Asli; DosSantos, Rodrigo; Getsios, Denis

2016-07-01

Numerous economic evaluations using decision-analytic models have assessed the cost effectiveness of treatments for Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the last two decades. It is important to understand the methods used in the existing models of AD and how they could impact results, as they could inform new model-based economic evaluations of treatments for AD. The aim of this systematic review was to provide a detailed description on the relevant aspects and components of existing decision-analytic models of AD, identifying areas for improvement and future development, and to conduct a quality assessment of the included studies. We performed a systematic and comprehensive review of cost-effectiveness studies of pharmacological treatments for AD published in the last decade (January 2005 to February 2015) that used decision-analytic models, also including studies considering patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The background information of the included studies and specific information on the decision-analytic models, including their approach and components, assumptions, data sources, analyses, and results, were obtained from each study. A description of how the modeling approaches and assumptions differ across studies, identifying areas for improvement and future development, is provided. At the end, we present our own view of the potential future directions of decision-analytic models of AD and the challenges they might face. The included studies present a variety of different approaches, assumptions, and scope of decision-analytic models used in the economic evaluation of pharmacological treatments of AD. The major areas for improvement in future models of AD are to include domains of cognition, function, and behavior, rather than cognition alone; include a detailed description of how data used to model the natural course of disease progression were derived; state and justify the economic model selected and structural assumptions and limitations; provide a detailed (rather than high-level) description of the cost components included in the model; and report on the face-, internal-, and cross-validity of the model to strengthen the credibility and confidence in model results. The quality scores of most studies were rated as fair to good (average 87.5, range 69.5-100, in a scale of 0-100). Despite the advancements in decision-analytic models of AD, there remain several areas of improvement that are necessary to more appropriately and realistically capture the broad nature of AD and the potential benefits of treatments in future models of AD.

Presidents in Action: Strategies for Effective Leadership.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Association of State Colleges and Universities, Washington, DC.

The Task Force on Student Life and Alcohol Abuse of the American Association of State Colleges and Universities identified four models that have proven effective in combating alcohol abuse by students. These models include: social norming, peer education, student assistance programming, and environmental management. Every institution is different,…

Project Physics Tests 5, Models of the Atom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA. Harvard Project Physics.

Test items relating to Project Physics Unit 5 are presented in this booklet. Included are 70 multiple-choice and 23 problem-and-essay questions. Concepts of atomic model are examined on aspects of relativistic corrections, electron emission, photoelectric effects, Compton effect, quantum theories, electrolysis experiments, atomic number and mass,…

An Analytical Framework for Evaluating E-Commerce Business Models and Strategies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Chung-Shing

2001-01-01

Considers electronic commerce as a paradigm shift, or a disruptive innovation, and presents an analytical framework based on the theories of transaction costs and switching costs. Topics include business transformation process; scale effect; scope effect; new sources of revenue; and e-commerce value creation model and strategy. (LRW)

Cost and cost effectiveness of vaginal progesterone gel in reducing preterm birth: an economic analysis of the PREGNANT trial.

PubMed

Pizzi, Laura T; Seligman, Neil S; Baxter, Jason K; Jutkowitz, Eric; Berghella, Vincenzo

2014-05-01

Preterm birth (PTB) is a costly public health problem in the USA. The PREGNANT trial tested the efficacy of vaginal progesterone (VP) 8 % gel in reducing the likelihood of PTB among women with a short cervix. We calculated the costs and cost effectiveness of VP gel versus placebo using decision analytic models informed by PREGNANT patient-level data. PREGNANT enrolled 459 pregnant women with a cervical length of 10-20 mm and randomized them to either VP 8 % gel or placebo. We used a cost model to estimate the total cost of treatment per mother and a cost-effectiveness model to estimate the cost per PTB averted with VP gel versus placebo. Patient-level trial data informed model inputs and included PTB rates in low- and high-risk women in each study group at <28 weeks gestation, 28-31, 32-36, and ≥37 weeks. Cost assumptions were based on 2010 US healthcare services reimbursements. The cost model was validated against patient-level data. Sensitivity analyses were used to test the robustness of the cost-effectiveness model. The estimated cost per mother was $US23,079 for VP gel and $US36,436 for placebo. The cost-effectiveness model showed savings of $US24,071 per PTB averted with VP gel. VP gel realized cost savings and cost effectiveness in 79 % of simulations. Based on findings from PREGNANT, VP gel was associated with cost savings and cost effectiveness compared with placebo. Future trials designed to include cost metrics are needed to better understand the value of VP.

A Flight Dynamics Model for a Small Glider in Ambient Winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beeler, Scott C.; Moerder, Daniel D.; Cox, David E.

2003-01-01

In this paper we describe the equations of motion developed for a point-mass zero-thrust (gliding) aircraft model operating in an environment of spatially varying atmospheric winds. The wind effects are included as an integral part of the flight dynamics equations, and the model is controlled through the three aerodynamic control angles. Formulas for the aerodynamic coefficients for this model are constructed to include the effects of several different aspects contributing to the aerodynamic performance of the vehicle. Characteristic parameter values of the model are compared with those found in a different set of small glider simulations. We execute a set of example problems which solve the glider dynamics equations to find the aircraft trajectory given specified control inputs. The ambient wind conditions and glider characteristics are varied to compare the simulation results under these different circumstances.

A Flight Dynamics Model for a Small Glider in Ambient Winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beeler, Scott C.; Moerder, Daniel D.; Cox, David E.

2003-01-01

In this paper we describe the equations of motion developed for a point-mass zero-thrust (gliding) aircraft model operating in an environment of spatially varying atmospheric winds. The wind effects are included as an integral part of the flight dynamics equations, and the model is controlled through the three aerodynamic control angles. Formulas for the aerodynamic coefficients for this model are constructed to include the effects of several different aspects contributing to the aerodynamic performance of the vehicle. Characteristic parameter values of the model are compared with those found in a different set of small glider simulations. We execute a set of example problems which solve the glider dynamics equations to find aircraft trajectory given specified control inputs. The ambient wind conditions and glider characteristics are varied to compare the simulation results under these different circumstances.

Capturing ecology in modeling approaches applied to environmental risk assessment of endocrine active chemicals in fish.

PubMed

Mintram, Kate S; Brown, A Ross; Maynard, Samuel K; Thorbek, Pernille; Tyler, Charles R

2018-02-01

Endocrine active chemicals (EACs) are widespread in freshwater environments and both laboratory and field based studies have shown reproductive effects in fish at environmentally relevant exposures. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) seeks to protect wildlife populations and prospective assessments rely on extrapolation from individual-level effects established for laboratory fish species to populations of wild fish using arbitrary safety factors. Population susceptibility to chemical effects, however, depends on exposure risk, physiological susceptibility, and population resilience, each of which can differ widely between fish species. Population models have significant potential to address these shortfalls and to include individual variability relating to life-history traits, demographic and density-dependent vital rates, and behaviors which arise from inter-organism and organism-environment interactions. Confidence in population models has recently resulted in the EU Commission stating that results derived from reliable models may be considered when assessing the relevance of adverse effects of EACs at the population level. This review critically assesses the potential risks posed by EACs for fish populations, considers the ecological factors influencing these risks and explores the benefits and challenges of applying population modeling (including individual-based modeling) in ERA for EACs in fish. We conclude that population modeling offers a way forward for incorporating greater environmental relevance in assessing the risks of EACs for fishes and for identifying key risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Individual-based models (IBMs) allow for the incorporation of physiological and behavioral endpoints relevant to EAC exposure effects, thus capturing both direct and indirect population-level effects.

Modeling Newspaper Advertising

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harper, Joseph; And Others

1978-01-01

Presents a mathematical model for simulating a newspaper financial system. Includes the effects of advertising and circulation for predicting advertising linage as a function of population, income, and advertising rate. (RL)

The Cost and Impact of Scaling Up Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for HIV Prevention: A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Modelling Studies

PubMed Central

Gomez, Gabriela B.; Borquez, Annick; Case, Kelsey K.; Wheelock, Ana; Vassall, Anna; Hankins, Catherine

2013-01-01

Background Cost-effectiveness studies inform resource allocation, strategy, and policy development. However, due to their complexity, dependence on assumptions made, and inherent uncertainty, synthesising, and generalising the results can be difficult. We assess cost-effectiveness models evaluating expected health gains and costs of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) interventions. Methods and Findings We conducted a systematic review comparing epidemiological and economic assumptions of cost-effectiveness studies using various modelling approaches. The following databases were searched (until January 2013): PubMed/Medline, ISI Web of Knowledge, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases, EconLIT, and region-specific databases. We included modelling studies reporting both cost and expected impact of a PrEP roll-out. We explored five issues: prioritisation strategies, adherence, behaviour change, toxicity, and resistance. Of 961 studies retrieved, 13 were included. Studies modelled populations (heterosexual couples, men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs) in generalised and concentrated epidemics from Southern Africa (including South Africa), Ukraine, USA, and Peru. PrEP was found to have the potential to be a cost-effective addition to HIV prevention programmes in specific settings. The extent of the impact of PrEP depended upon assumptions made concerning cost, epidemic context, programme coverage, prioritisation strategies, and individual-level adherence. Delivery of PrEP to key populations at highest risk of HIV exposure appears the most cost-effective strategy. Limitations of this review include the partial geographical coverage, our inability to perform a meta-analysis, and the paucity of information available exploring trade-offs between early treatment and PrEP. Conclusions Our review identifies the main considerations to address in assessing cost-effectiveness analyses of a PrEP intervention—cost, epidemic context, individual adherence level, PrEP programme coverage, and prioritisation strategy. Cost-effectiveness studies indicating where resources can be applied for greatest impact are essential to guide resource allocation decisions; however, the results of such analyses must be considered within the context of the underlying assumptions made. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23554579

The cost and impact of scaling up pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention: a systematic review of cost-effectiveness modelling studies.

PubMed

Gomez, Gabriela B; Borquez, Annick; Case, Kelsey K; Wheelock, Ana; Vassall, Anna; Hankins, Catherine

2013-01-01

Cost-effectiveness studies inform resource allocation, strategy, and policy development. However, due to their complexity, dependence on assumptions made, and inherent uncertainty, synthesising, and generalising the results can be difficult. We assess cost-effectiveness models evaluating expected health gains and costs of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) interventions. We conducted a systematic review comparing epidemiological and economic assumptions of cost-effectiveness studies using various modelling approaches. The following databases were searched (until January 2013): PubMed/Medline, ISI Web of Knowledge, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases, EconLIT, and region-specific databases. We included modelling studies reporting both cost and expected impact of a PrEP roll-out. We explored five issues: prioritisation strategies, adherence, behaviour change, toxicity, and resistance. Of 961 studies retrieved, 13 were included. Studies modelled populations (heterosexual couples, men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs) in generalised and concentrated epidemics from Southern Africa (including South Africa), Ukraine, USA, and Peru. PrEP was found to have the potential to be a cost-effective addition to HIV prevention programmes in specific settings. The extent of the impact of PrEP depended upon assumptions made concerning cost, epidemic context, programme coverage, prioritisation strategies, and individual-level adherence. Delivery of PrEP to key populations at highest risk of HIV exposure appears the most cost-effective strategy. Limitations of this review include the partial geographical coverage, our inability to perform a meta-analysis, and the paucity of information available exploring trade-offs between early treatment and PrEP. Our review identifies the main considerations to address in assessing cost-effectiveness analyses of a PrEP intervention--cost, epidemic context, individual adherence level, PrEP programme coverage, and prioritisation strategy. Cost-effectiveness studies indicating where resources can be applied for greatest impact are essential to guide resource allocation decisions; however, the results of such analyses must be considered within the context of the underlying assumptions made. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Southern Ocean warming due to human influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fyfe, John C.

2006-10-01

I show that the latest series of climate models reproduce the observed mid-depth Southern Ocean warming since the 1950s if they include time-varying changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols and volcanic aerosols in the Earth's atmosphere. The remarkable agreement between observations and state-of-the art climate models suggests significant human influence on Southern Ocean temperatures. I also show that climate models that do not include volcanic aerosols produce mid-depth Southern Ocean warming that is nearly double that produced by climate models that do include volcanic aerosols. This implies that the full effect of human-induced warming of the Southern Ocean may yet to be realized.

Combined measurement and modeling of the hydrological impact of hydraulic redistribution using CLM4.5 at eight AmeriFlux sites

Treesearch

Congsheng Fu; Guiling Wang; Michael L. Goulden; Russell L. Scott; Kenneth Bible; Zoe G. Cardon

2016-01-01

Effects of hydraulic redistribution (HR) on hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes have been demonstrated in the field, but the current generation of standard earth system models does not include a representation of HR. Though recent studies have examined the effect of incorporating HR into land surface models, few (if any) have done cross-site...

Attitude determination of a high altitude balloon system. Part 1: Development of the mathematical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nigro, N. J.; Elkouh, A. F.; Shen, K. S.; Nimityongskul, P.; Jhaveri, V. N.; Sethi, A.

1975-01-01

A mathematical model for predicting the three dimensional motion of the balloon system is developed, which includes the effects of bounce, pendulation and spin of each subsystem. Boundary layer effects are also examined, along with the aerodynamic forces acting on the balloon. Various simplified forms of the system mathematical model were developed, based on an order of magnitude analysis.

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Makowski, David; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Bassu, Simona; Durand, Jean-Louis; Martre, Pierre; Adam, Myriam; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Baron, Chritian;

Application of random effects to the study of resource selection by animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gillies, C.S.; Hebblewhite, M.; Nielsen, S.E.; Krawchuk, M.A.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Frair, J.L.; Saher, D.J.; Stevens, C.E.; Jerde, C.L.

2006-01-01

1. Resource selection estimated by logistic regression is used increasingly in studies to identify critical resources for animal populations and to predict species occurrence.2. Most frequently, individual animals are monitored and pooled to estimate population-level effects without regard to group or individual-level variation. Pooling assumes that both observations and their errors are independent, and resource selection is constant given individual variation in resource availability.3. Although researchers have identified ways to minimize autocorrelation, variation between individuals caused by differences in selection or available resources, including functional responses in resource selection, have not been well addressed.4. Here we review random-effects models and their application to resource selection modelling to overcome these common limitations. We present a simple case study of an analysis of resource selection by grizzly bears in the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains with and without random effects.5. Both categorical and continuous variables in the grizzly bear model differed in interpretation, both in statistical significance and coefficient sign, depending on how a random effect was included. We used a simulation approach to clarify the application of random effects under three common situations for telemetry studies: (a) discrepancies in sample sizes among individuals; (b) differences among individuals in selection where availability is constant; and (c) differences in availability with and without a functional response in resource selection.6. We found that random intercepts accounted for unbalanced sample designs, and models with random intercepts and coefficients improved model fit given the variation in selection among individuals and functional responses in selection. Our empirical example and simulations demonstrate how including random effects in resource selection models can aid interpretation and address difficult assumptions limiting their generality. This approach will allow researchers to appropriately estimate marginal (population) and conditional (individual) responses, and account for complex grouping, unbalanced sample designs and autocorrelation.

Application of random effects to the study of resource selection by animals.

PubMed

Gillies, Cameron S; Hebblewhite, Mark; Nielsen, Scott E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Aldridge, Cameron L; Frair, Jacqueline L; Saher, D Joanne; Stevens, Cameron E; Jerde, Christopher L

2006-07-01

1. Resource selection estimated by logistic regression is used increasingly in studies to identify critical resources for animal populations and to predict species occurrence. 2. Most frequently, individual animals are monitored and pooled to estimate population-level effects without regard to group or individual-level variation. Pooling assumes that both observations and their errors are independent, and resource selection is constant given individual variation in resource availability. 3. Although researchers have identified ways to minimize autocorrelation, variation between individuals caused by differences in selection or available resources, including functional responses in resource selection, have not been well addressed. 4. Here we review random-effects models and their application to resource selection modelling to overcome these common limitations. We present a simple case study of an analysis of resource selection by grizzly bears in the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains with and without random effects. 5. Both categorical and continuous variables in the grizzly bear model differed in interpretation, both in statistical significance and coefficient sign, depending on how a random effect was included. We used a simulation approach to clarify the application of random effects under three common situations for telemetry studies: (a) discrepancies in sample sizes among individuals; (b) differences among individuals in selection where availability is constant; and (c) differences in availability with and without a functional response in resource selection. 6. We found that random intercepts accounted for unbalanced sample designs, and models with random intercepts and coefficients improved model fit given the variation in selection among individuals and functional responses in selection. Our empirical example and simulations demonstrate how including random effects in resource selection models can aid interpretation and address difficult assumptions limiting their generality. This approach will allow researchers to appropriately estimate marginal (population) and conditional (individual) responses, and account for complex grouping, unbalanced sample designs and autocorrelation.

Assessing the performance of a computer-based policy model of HIV and AIDS.

PubMed

Rydzak, Chara E; Cotich, Kara L; Sax, Paul E; Hsu, Heather E; Wang, Bingxia; Losina, Elena; Freedberg, Kenneth A; Weinstein, Milton C; Goldie, Sue J

2010-09-09

Model-based analyses, conducted within a decision analytic framework, provide a systematic way to combine information about the natural history of disease and effectiveness of clinical management strategies with demographic and epidemiological characteristics of the population. Among the challenges with disease-specific modeling include the need to identify influential assumptions and to assess the face validity and internal consistency of the model. We describe a series of exercises involved in adapting a computer-based simulation model of HIV disease to the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) cohort and assess model performance as we re-parameterized the model to address policy questions in the U.S. relevant to HIV-infected women using data from the WIHS. Empiric calibration targets included 24-month survival curves stratified by treatment status and CD4 cell count. The most influential assumptions in untreated women included chronic HIV-associated mortality following an opportunistic infection, and in treated women, the 'clinical effectiveness' of HAART and the ability of HAART to prevent HIV complications independent of virologic suppression. Good-fitting parameter sets required reductions in the clinical effectiveness of 1st and 2nd line HAART and improvements in 3rd and 4th line regimens. Projected rates of treatment regimen switching using the calibrated cohort-specific model closely approximated independent analyses published using data from the WIHS. The model demonstrated good internal consistency and face validity, and supported cohort heterogeneities that have been reported in the literature. Iterative assessment of model performance can provide information about the relative influence of uncertain assumptions and provide insight into heterogeneities within and between cohorts. Description of calibration exercises can enhance the transparency of disease-specific models.

Markov Mixed Effects Modeling Using Electronic Adherence Monitoring Records Identifies Influential Covariates to HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis.

PubMed

Madrasi, Kumpal; Chaturvedula, Ayyappa; Haberer, Jessica E; Sale, Mark; Fossler, Michael J; Bangsberg, David; Baeten, Jared M; Celum, Connie; Hendrix, Craig W

2017-05-01

Adherence is a major factor in the effectiveness of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. Modeling patterns of adherence helps to identify influential covariates of different types of adherence as well as to enable clinical trial simulation so that appropriate interventions can be developed. We developed a Markov mixed-effects model to understand the covariates influencing adherence patterns to daily oral PrEP. Electronic adherence records (date and time of medication bottle cap opening) from the Partners PrEP ancillary adherence study with a total of 1147 subjects were used. This study included once-daily dosing regimens of placebo, oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), and TDF in combination with emtricitabine (FTC), administered to HIV-uninfected members of serodiscordant couples. One-coin and first- to third-order Markov models were fit to the data using NONMEM ® 7.2. Model selection criteria included objective function value (OFV), Akaike information criterion (AIC), visual predictive checks, and posterior predictive checks. Covariates were included based on forward addition (α = 0.05) and backward elimination (α = 0.001). Markov models better described the data than 1-coin models. A third-order Markov model gave the lowest OFV and AIC, but the simpler first-order model was used for covariate model building because no additional benefit on prediction of target measures was observed for higher-order models. Female sex and older age had a positive impact on adherence, whereas Sundays, sexual abstinence, and sex with a partner other than the study partner had a negative impact on adherence. Our findings suggest adherence interventions should consider the role of these factors. © 2016, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Three-dimensional time domain model of lightning including corona effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Podgorski, Andrew S.

1991-01-01

A new 3-D lightning model that incorporates the effect of corona is described for the first time. The new model is based on a Thin Wire Time Domain Lightning (TWTDL) Code developed previously. The TWTDL Code was verified during the 1985 and 1986 lightning seasons by the measurements conducted at the 553 m CN Tower in Toronto, Ontario. The inclusion of corona in the TWTDL code allowed study of the corona effects on the lightning current parameters and the associated electric field parameters.

Evaluating the effectiveness of intercultural teachers.

PubMed

Cox, Kathleen

2011-01-01

With globalization and major immigration flows, intercultural teaching encounters are likely to increase, along with the need to assure intercultural teaching effectiveness.Thus, the purpose of this article is to present a conceptual framework for nurse educators to consider when anticipating an intercultural teaching experience. Kirkpatrick's and Bushnell's models provide a basis for the conceptual framework. Major concepts of the model include input, process, output, and outcome.The model may possibly be used to guide future research to determine which variables are most influential in explaining intercultural teaching effectiveness.

Including α s1 casein gene information in genomic evaluations of French dairy goats.

PubMed

Carillier-Jacquin, Céline; Larroque, Hélène; Robert-Granié, Christèle

2016-08-04

Genomic best linear unbiased prediction methods assume that all markers explain the same fraction of the genetic variance and do not account effectively for genes with major effects such as the α s1 casein polymorphism in dairy goats. In this study, we investigated methods to include the available α s1 casein genotype effect in genomic evaluations of French dairy goats. First, the α s1 casein genotype was included as a fixed effect in genomic evaluation models based only on bucks that were genotyped at the α s1 casein locus. Less than 1 % of the females with phenotypes were genotyped at the α s1 casein gene. Thus, to incorporate these female phenotypes in the genomic evaluation, two methods that allowed for this large number of missing α s1 casein genotypes were investigated. Probabilities for each possible α s1 casein genotype were first estimated for each female of unknown genotype based on iterative peeling equations. The second method is based on a multiallelic gene content approach. For each model tested, we used three datasets each divided into a training and a validation set: (1) two-breed population (Alpine + Saanen), (2) Alpine population, and (3) Saanen population. The α s1 casein genotype had a significant effect on milk yield, fat content and protein content. Including an α s1 casein effect in genetic and genomic evaluations based only on male known α s1 casein genotypes improved accuracies (from 6 to 27 %). In genomic evaluations based on all female phenotypes, the gene content approach performed better than the other tested methods but the improvement in accuracy was only slightly better (from 1 to 14 %) than that of a genomic model without the α s1 casein effect. Including the α s1 casein effect in a genomic evaluation model for French dairy goats is possible and useful to improve accuracy. Difficulties in predicting the genotypes for ungenotyped animals limited the improvement in accuracy of the obtained estimated breeding values.

The development of a model to predict BW gain of growing cattle fed grass silage-based diets.

PubMed

Huuskonen, A; Huhtanen, P

2015-08-01

The objective of this meta-analysis was to develop and validate empirical equations predicting BW gain (BWG) and carcass traits of growing cattle from intake and diet composition variables. The modelling was based on treatment mean data from feeding trials in growing cattle, in which the nutrient supply was manipulated by wide ranges of forage and concentrate factors. The final dataset comprised 527 diets in 116 studies. The diets were mainly based on grass silage or grass silage partly or completely replaced by whole-crop silages, hay or straw. The concentrate feeds consisted of cereal grains, fibrous by-products and protein supplements. Mixed model regression analysis with a random study effect was used to develop prediction equations for BWG and carcass traits. The best-fit models included linear and quadratic effects of metabolisable energy (ME) intake per metabolic BW (BW0.75), linear effects of BW0.75, and dietary concentrations of NDF, fat and feed metabolisable protein (MP) as significant variables. Although diet variables had significant effects on BWG, their contribution to improve the model predictions compared with ME intake models was small. Feed MP rather than total MP was included in the final model, since it is less correlated to dietary ME concentration than total MP. None of the quadratic terms of feed variables was significant (P>0.10) when included in the final models. Further, additional feed variables (e.g. silage fermentation products, forage digestibility) did not have significant effects on BWG. For carcass traits, increased ME intake (ME/BW0.75) improved both dressing proportion (P0.10) effect on dressing proportion or carcass conformation score, but it increased (P<0.01) carcass fat score. The current study demonstrated that ME intake per BW0.75 was clearly the most important variable explaining the BWG response in growing cattle. The effect of increased ME supply displayed diminishing responses that could be associated with increased energy concentration of BWG, reduced diet metabolisability (proportion of ME of gross energy) and/or decreased efficiency of ME utilisation for growth with increased intake. Negative effects of increased dietary NDF concentration on BWG were smaller compared to responses that energy evaluation systems predict for energy retention. The present results showed only marginal effects of protein supply on BWG in growing cattle.

Mind the Gap! A Multilevel Analysis of Factors Related to Variation in Published Cost-Effectiveness Estimates within and between Countries.

PubMed

Boehler, Christian E H; Lord, Joanne

2016-01-01

Published cost-effectiveness estimates can vary considerably, both within and between countries. Despite extensive discussion, little is known empirically about factors relating to these variations. To use multilevel statistical modeling to integrate cost-effectiveness estimates from published economic evaluations to investigate potential causes of variation. Cost-effectiveness studies of statins for cardiovascular disease prevention were identified by systematic review. Estimates of incremental costs and effects were extracted from reported base case, sensitivity, and subgroup analyses, with estimates grouped in studies and in countries. Three bivariate models were developed: a cross-classified model to accommodate data from multinational studies, a hierarchical model with multinational data allocated to a single category at country level, and a hierarchical model excluding multinational data. Covariates at different levels were drawn from a long list of factors suggested in the literature. We found 67 studies reporting 2094 cost-effectiveness estimates relating to 23 countries (6 studies reporting for more than 1 country). Data and study-level covariates included patient characteristics, intervention and comparator cost, and some study methods (e.g., discount rates and time horizon). After adjusting for these factors, the proportion of variation attributable to countries was negligible in the cross-classified model but moderate in the hierarchical models (14%-19% of total variance). Country-level variables that improved the fit of the hierarchical models included measures of income and health care finance, health care resources, and population risks. Our analysis suggested that variability in published cost-effectiveness estimates is related more to differences in study methods than to differences in national context. Multinational studies were associated with much lower country-level variation than single-country studies. These findings are for a single clinical question and may be atypical. © The Author(s) 2015.

Mechanics of damping for fiber composite laminates including hygro-thermal effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saravanos, D. A.; Chamis, C. C.

1989-01-01

An integrated mechanics theory has been developed for the modeling of composite damping from the micromechanics to the laminate level. Simplified, design oriented equations based on hysteretic damping are presented for on-axis plies, off-axis plies, and laminates including the effect of temperature, moisture, and interply hysteretic damping. The temperature rise within vibrating composite laminates resulting from strain energy dissipation is also modeled, and their coupled hygro-thermo-mechanical response is predicted. The method correlates well with reported damping measurements. Application examples illustrate the effect of various ply, laminate, and hygro-thermal parameters on the overall damping performance of composite laminates.

Mechanics of damping for fiber composite laminates including hygro-thermal effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saravanos, D. A.; Chamis, Christos C.

1989-01-01

An integrated mechanics theory was developed for the modeling of composite damping from the micromechanics to the laminate level. Simplified, design oriented equations based on hysteretic damping are presented for on-axis plies, off-axis plies, and laminates including the effect of temperature, moisture, and interply hysteretic damping. The temperature rise within vibrating composite laminates resulting from strain energy dissipation is also modeled, and their coupled hygro-thermo-mechanical response is predicted. The method correlates well with reported damping measurements. Application examples illustrate the effect of various ply, laminate, and hygro-thermal parameters on the overall damping performance of composite laminates.

The Effects of Sand Sediment Volume Heterogeneities on Sound Propagation and Scattering

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

modulus of a poroelastic medium,” J. Acoust . Soc. Am. 127, 3372–3384 (2010). 3. K. L. Williams, “An effective density fluid model for acoustic ...previously developed at APL- UW for the study of high-frequency acoustics . These models include perturbation models applied to scattering from the...scattering levels that may mask target detection. RELATED PROJECTS 1. “ Acoustic Color of mines and mine-like objects: Finite Element modeling (FEM

Model Of Bearing With Hydrostatic Damper

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goggin, David G.

1991-01-01

Improved mathematical model of rotational and vibrational dynamics of bearing package in turbopump incorporates effects of hydrostatic damper. Part of larger finite-element model representing rotational and vibrational dynamics of rotor and housing of pump. Includes representations of deadband and nonlinear stiffness and damping of ball bearings, nonlinear stiffness and damping of hydrostatic film, and stiffness of bearing support. Enables incorporation of effects of hydrostatic damper into overall rotor-dynamic mathematical model without addition of mathematical submodel of major substructure.

Upstream and downstream correlates of older people's engagement in social networks: what are their effects on health over time?

PubMed

Stephens, Christine; Noone, Jack; Alpass, Fiona

2014-01-01

This study tested the effects of social network engagement and social support on the health of older people moving into retirement, using a model which includes social context variables. A prospective survey of a New Zealand population sample aged 54-70 at baseline (N = 2,282) was used to assess the effects on mental and physical health across time. A structural equation model assessed pathways from the social context variables through network engagement to social support and then to mental and physical health 2 years later. The proposed model of effects on mental health was supported when gender, economic living standards, and ethnicity were included along with the direct effects of these variables on social support. These findings confirm the importance of taking social context variables into account when considering social support networks. Social engagement appears to be an important aspect of social network functioning which could be investigated further.

Multidimensional Modeling of Atmospheric Effects and Surface Heterogeneities on Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gerstl, S. A. W.; Simmer, C.; Zardecki, A. (Principal Investigator)

1985-01-01

The overall goal of this project is to establish a modeling capability that allows a quantitative determination of atmospheric effects on remote sensing including the effects of surface heterogeneities. This includes an improved understanding of aerosol and haze effects in connection with structural, angular, and spatial surface heterogeneities. One important objective of the research is the possible identification of intrinsic surface or canopy characteristics that might be invariant to atmospheric perturbations so that they could be used for scene identification. Conversely, an equally important objective is to find a correction algorithm for atmospheric effects in satellite-sensed surface reflectances. The technical approach is centered around a systematic model and code development effort based on existing, highly advanced computer codes that were originally developed for nuclear radiation shielding applications. Computational techniques for the numerical solution of the radiative transfer equation are adapted on the basis of the discrete-ordinates finite-element method which proved highly successful for one and two-dimensional radiative transfer problems with fully resolved angular representation of the radiation field.

The Causal Effects of Father Absence

PubMed Central

McLanahan, Sara; Tach, Laura; Schneider, Daniel

2014-01-01

The literature on father absence is frequently criticized for its use of cross-sectional data and methods that fail to take account of possible omitted variable bias and reverse causality. We review studies that have responded to this critique by employing a variety of innovative research designs to identify the causal effect of father absence, including studies using lagged dependent variable models, growth curve models, individual fixed effects models, sibling fixed effects models, natural experiments, and propensity score matching models. Our assessment is that studies using more rigorous designs continue to find negative effects of father absence on offspring well-being, although the magnitude of these effects is smaller than what is found using traditional cross-sectional designs. The evidence is strongest and most consistent for outcomes such as high school graduation, children’s social-emotional adjustment, and adult mental health. PMID:24489431

Assessment of Effectiveness in Preprimary and School Social Work Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radin, Norma

A model for evaluating effectiveness in preschool and school social work programs is proposed. The paradigm has two major dimensions: criteria for evaluating success, and modalities for assessing whether the criteria have been met. Three criteria are suggested including improved views of significant others, and seven modalities including test…

Spatial taxation effects on regional coal economic activities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, C.W.; Labys, W.C.

1982-01-01

Taxation effects on resource production, consumption and prices are seldom evaluated especially in the field of spatial commodity modeling. The most commonly employed linear programming model has fixed-point estimated demands and capacity constraints; hence it makes taxation effects difficult to be modeled. The second type of resource allocation model, the interregional input-output models does not include a direct and explicit price mechanism. Therefore, it is not suitable for analyzing taxation effects. The third type or spatial commodity model has been econometric in nature. While such an approach has a good deal of flexibility in modeling political and non-economic variables, itmore » treats taxation (or tariff) effects loosely using only dummy variables, and, in many cases, must sacrifice the consistency criterion important for spatial commodity modeling. This leaves model builders only one legitimate choice for analyzing taxation effects: the quadratic programming model which explicitly allows the interplay of regional demand and supply relations via a continuous spatial price constructed by the authors related to the regional demand for and supply of coal from Appalachian markets.« less

Effects of prenatal cocaine exposure on special education in school-aged children.

PubMed

Levine, Todd P; Liu, Jing; Das, Abhik; Lester, Barry; Lagasse, Linda; Shankaran, Seetha; Bada, Henrietta S; Bauer, Charles R; Higgins, Rosemary

2008-07-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of prenatal cocaine exposure on special education at age 7 with adjustment for covariates. As part of the prospective, longitudinal, multisite study of children with prenatal cocaine exposure (Maternal Lifestyle Study), school records were reviewed for 943 children at 7 years to determine involvement in special education outcomes: (1) individualized education plan; (2) special education conditions; (3) support services; (4) special education classes; and (5) speech and language services. Logistic regression was used to examine the effect of prenatal cocaine exposure on these outcomes with environmental, maternal, and infant medical variables as covariates, as well as with and without low child IQ. Complete data for each analysis model were available for 737 to 916 children. When controlling for covariates including low child IQ, prenatal cocaine exposure had a significant effect on individualized education plan. When low child IQ was not included in the model, prenatal cocaine exposure had a significant effect on support services. Male gender, low birth weight, white race, and low child IQ also predicted individualized education plan. Low birth weight and low child IQ were significant in all models. White race was also significant in speech and language services. Other covariate effects were model specific. When included in the models, low child IQ accounted for more of the variance and changed the significance of other covariates. Prenatal cocaine exposure increased the likelihood of receiving an individualized education plan and support services, with adjustment for covariates. Low birth weight and low child IQ increased the likelihood of all outcomes. The finding that white children were more likely to get an individualized education plan and speech and language services could indicate a greater advantage in getting educational resources for this population.

The influence of track modelling options on the simulation of rail vehicle dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Gialleonardo, Egidio; Braghin, Francesco; Bruni, Stefano

2012-09-01

This paper investigates the effect of different models for track flexibility on the simulation of railway vehicle running dynamics on tangent and curved track. To this end, a multi-body model of the rail vehicle is defined including track flexibility effects on three levels of detail: a perfectly rigid pair of rails, a sectional track model and a three-dimensional finite element track model. The influence of the track model on the calculation of the nonlinear critical speed is pointed out and it is shown that neglecting the effect of track flexibility results in an overestimation of the critical speed by more than 10%. Vehicle response to stochastic excitation from track irregularity is also investigated, analysing the effect of track flexibility models on the vertical and lateral wheel-rail contact forces. Finally, the effect of the track model on the calculation of dynamic forces produced by wheel out-of-roundness is analysed, showing that peak dynamic loads are very sensitive to the track model used in the simulation.

Detection of mastitis in dairy cattle by use of mixture models for repeated somatic cell scores: a Bayesian approach via Gibbs sampling.

PubMed

Odegård, J; Jensen, J; Madsen, P; Gianola, D; Klemetsdal, G; Heringstad, B

2003-11-01

The distribution of somatic cell scores could be regarded as a mixture of at least two components depending on a cow's udder health status. A heteroscedastic two-component Bayesian normal mixture model with random effects was developed and implemented via Gibbs sampling. The model was evaluated using datasets consisting of simulated somatic cell score records. Somatic cell score was simulated as a mixture representing two alternative udder health statuses ("healthy" or "diseased"). Animals were assigned randomly to the two components according to the probability of group membership (Pm). Random effects (additive genetic and permanent environment), when included, had identical distributions across mixture components. Posterior probabilities of putative mastitis were estimated for all observations, and model adequacy was evaluated using measures of sensitivity, specificity, and posterior probability of misclassification. Fitting different residual variances in the two mixture components caused some bias in estimation of parameters. When the components were difficult to disentangle, so were their residual variances, causing bias in estimation of Pm and of location parameters of the two underlying distributions. When all variance components were identical across mixture components, the mixture model analyses returned parameter estimates essentially without bias and with a high degree of precision. Including random effects in the model increased the probability of correct classification substantially. No sizable differences in probability of correct classification were found between models in which a single cow effect (ignoring relationships) was fitted and models where this effect was split into genetic and permanent environmental components, utilizing relationship information. When genetic and permanent environmental effects were fitted, the between-replicate variance of estimates of posterior means was smaller because the model accounted for random genetic drift.

Mathematical modeling of HIV prevention measures including pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV incidence in South Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Sun Bean; Yoon, Myoungho; Ku, Nam Su; Kim, Min Hyung; Song, Je Eun; Ahn, Jin Young; Jeong, Su Jin; Kim, Changsoo; Kwon, Hee-Dae; Lee, Jeehyun; Smith, Davey M; Choi, Jun Yong

2014-01-01

Multiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation. We constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures. Overall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together. This model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM.

Mathematical Modeling of HIV Prevention Measures Including Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis on HIV Incidence in South Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, Sun Bean; Yoon, Myoungho; Ku, Nam Su; Kim, Min Hyung; Song, Je Eun; Ahn, Jin Young; Jeong, Su Jin; Kim, Changsoo; Kwon, Hee-Dae; Lee, Jeehyun; Smith, Davey M.; Choi, Jun Yong

2014-01-01

Background Multiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation. Methods We constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures. Results Overall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together. Conclusions This model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM. PMID:24662776

Thermal evolution of the earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spohn, T.

1984-01-01

The earth's heat budget and models of the earth's thermal evolution are discussed. Sources of the planetary heat are considered and modes of heat transport are addressed, including conduction, convection, and chemical convection. Thermal and convectional models of the earth are covered, and models of thermal evolution are discussed in detail, including changes in the core, the influence of layered mantle convection on the thermal evolution, and the effect of chemical differentiation on the continents.

Assessing health and economic outcomes of interventions to reduce pregnancy-related mortality in Nigeria.

PubMed

Erim, Daniel O; Resch, Stephen C; Goldie, Sue J

2012-09-14

Women in Nigeria face some of the highest maternal mortality risks in the world. We explore the benefits and cost-effectiveness of individual and integrated packages of interventions to prevent pregnancy-related deaths. We adapt a previously validated maternal mortality model to Nigeria. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to Southwest and Northeast zones using survey-based data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions, and could include improved logistics. Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality, was cost saving in the Southwest zone and cost-effective elsewhere, and prevented nearly 1 in 5 abortion-related deaths. However, with a singular focus on family planning and safe abortion, mortality reduction would plateau below MDG 5. Strategies that could prevent 4 out of 5 maternal deaths included an integrated and stepwise approach that includes increased skilled deliveries, facility births, access to antenatal/postpartum care, improved recognition of referral need, transport, and availability quality of EmOC in addition to family planning and safe abortion. The economic benefits of these strategies ranged from being cost-saving to having incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than $500 per YLS, well below Nigeria's per capita GDP. Early intensive efforts to improve family planning and control of fertility choices, accompanied by a stepwise effort to scale-up capacity for integrated maternal health services over several years, will save lives and provide equal or greater value than many public health interventions we consider among the most cost-effective (e.g., childhood immunization).

Homogenization limit for a multiband effective mass model in heterostructures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morandi, O., E-mail: morandi@ipcms.unistra.fr

We study the homogenization limit of a multiband model that describes the quantum mechanical motion of an electron in a quasi-periodic crystal. In this approach, the distance among the atoms that constitute the material (lattice parameter) is considered a small quantity. Our model include the description of materials with variable chemical composition, intergrowth compounds, and heterostructures. We derive the effective multiband evolution system in the framework of the kp approach. We study the well posedness of the mathematical problem. We compare the effective mass model with the standard kp models for uniform and non-uniforms crystals. We show that in themore » limit of vanishing lattice parameter, the particle density obtained by the effective mass model, converges to the exact probability density of the particle.« less

Cost-effectiveness of a nurse practitioner-family physician model of care in a nursing home: controlled before and after study.

PubMed

Lacny, Sarah; Zarrabi, Mahmood; Martin-Misener, Ruth; Donald, Faith; Sketris, Ingrid; Murphy, Andrea L; DiCenso, Alba; Marshall, Deborah A

2016-09-01

To examine the cost-effectiveness of a nurse practitioner-family physician model of care compared with family physician-only care in a Canadian nursing home. As demand for long-term care increases, alternative care models including nurse practitioners are being explored. Cost-effectiveness analysis using a controlled before-after design. The study included an 18-month 'before' period (2005-2006) and a 21-month 'after' time period (2007-2009). Data were abstracted from charts from 2008-2010. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios comparing the intervention (nurse practitioner-family physician model; n = 45) to internal (n = 65), external (n = 70) and combined internal/external family physician-only control groups, measured as the change in healthcare costs divided by the change in emergency department transfers/person-month. We assessed joint uncertainty around costs and effects using non-parametric bootstrapping and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Point estimates of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio demonstrated the nurse practitioner-family physician model dominated the internal and combined control groups (i.e. was associated with smaller increases in costs and emergency department transfers/person-month). Compared with the external control, the intervention resulted in a smaller increase in costs and larger increase in emergency department transfers. Using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $1000 CAD/emergency department transfer, the probability the intervention was cost-effective compared with the internal, external and combined control groups was 26%, 21% and 25%. Due to uncertainty around the distribution of costs and effects, we were unable to make a definitive conclusion regarding the cost-effectiveness of the nurse practitioner-family physician model; however, these results suggest benefits that could be confirmed in a larger study. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling Interactions Among Turbulence, Gas-Phase Chemistry, Soot and Radiation Using Transported PDF Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haworth, Daniel

2013-11-01

The importance of explicitly accounting for the effects of unresolved turbulent fluctuations in Reynolds-averaged and large-eddy simulations of chemically reacting turbulent flows is increasingly recognized. Transported probability density function (PDF) methods have emerged as one of the most promising modeling approaches for this purpose. In particular, PDF methods provide an elegant and effective resolution to the closure problems that arise from averaging or filtering terms that correspond to nonlinear point processes, including chemical reaction source terms and radiative emission. PDF methods traditionally have been associated with studies of turbulence-chemistry interactions in laboratory-scale, atmospheric-pressure, nonluminous, statistically stationary nonpremixed turbulent flames; and Lagrangian particle-based Monte Carlo numerical algorithms have been the predominant method for solving modeled PDF transport equations. Recent advances and trends in PDF methods are reviewed and discussed. These include advances in particle-based algorithms, alternatives to particle-based algorithms (e.g., Eulerian field methods), treatment of combustion regimes beyond low-to-moderate-Damköhler-number nonpremixed systems (e.g., premixed flamelets), extensions to include radiation heat transfer and multiphase systems (e.g., soot and fuel sprays), and the use of PDF methods as the basis for subfilter-scale modeling in large-eddy simulation. Examples are provided that illustrate the utility and effectiveness of PDF methods for physics discovery and for applications to practical combustion systems. These include comparisons of results obtained using the PDF method with those from models that neglect unresolved turbulent fluctuations in composition and temperature in the averaged or filtered chemical source terms and/or the radiation heat transfer source terms. In this way, the effects of turbulence-chemistry-radiation interactions can be isolated and quantified.

Bayesian effect estimation accounting for adjustment uncertainty.

PubMed

Wang, Chi; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Dominici, Francesca

2012-09-01

Model-based estimation of the effect of an exposure on an outcome is generally sensitive to the choice of which confounding factors are included in the model. We propose a new approach, which we call Bayesian adjustment for confounding (BAC), to estimate the effect of an exposure of interest on the outcome, while accounting for the uncertainty in the choice of confounders. Our approach is based on specifying two models: (1) the outcome as a function of the exposure and the potential confounders (the outcome model); and (2) the exposure as a function of the potential confounders (the exposure model). We consider Bayesian variable selection on both models and link the two by introducing a dependence parameter, ω, denoting the prior odds of including a predictor in the outcome model, given that the same predictor is in the exposure model. In the absence of dependence (ω= 1), BAC reduces to traditional Bayesian model averaging (BMA). In simulation studies, we show that BAC, with ω > 1, estimates the exposure effect with smaller bias than traditional BMA, and improved coverage. We, then, compare BAC, a recent approach of Crainiceanu, Dominici, and Parmigiani (2008, Biometrika 95, 635-651), and traditional BMA in a time series data set of hospital admissions, air pollution levels, and weather variables in Nassau, NY for the period 1999-2005. Using each approach, we estimate the short-term effects of on emergency admissions for cardiovascular diseases, accounting for confounding. This application illustrates the potentially significant pitfalls of misusing variable selection methods in the context of adjustment uncertainty. © 2012, The International Biometric Society.

Intersymbol Interference Investigations Using a 3D Time-Dependent Traveling Wave Tube Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kory, Carol L.; Andro, Monty

2002-01-01

For the first time, a time-dependent, physics-based computational model has been used to provide a direct description of the effects of the traveling wave tube amplifier (TWTA) on modulated digital signals. The TWT model comprehensively takes into account the effects of frequency dependent AM/AM and AM/PM conversion; gain and phase ripple; drive-induced oscillations; harmonic generation; intermodulation products; and backward waves. Thus, signal integrity can be investigated in the presence of these sources of potential distortion as a function of the physical geometry and operating characteristics of the high power amplifier and the operational digital signal. This method promises superior predictive fidelity compared to methods using TWT models based on swept- amplitude and/or swept-frequency data. First, the TWT model using the three dimensional (3D) electromagnetic code MAFIA is presented. Then, this comprehensive model is used to investigate approximations made in conventional TWT black-box models used in communication system level simulations. To quantitatively demonstrate the effects these approximations have on digital signal performance predictions, including intersymbol interference (ISI), the MAFIA results are compared to the system level analysis tool, Signal Processing Workstation (SPW), using high order modulation schemes including 16 and 64-QAM.

Clarifying the Use of Aggregated Exposures in Multilevel Models: Self-Included vs. Self-Excluded Measures

PubMed Central

Suzuki, Etsuji; Yamamoto, Eiji; Takao, Soshi; Kawachi, Ichiro; Subramanian, S. V.

2012-01-01

Background Multilevel analyses are ideally suited to assess the effects of ecological (higher level) and individual (lower level) exposure variables simultaneously. In applying such analyses to measures of ecologies in epidemiological studies, individual variables are usually aggregated into the higher level unit. Typically, the aggregated measure includes responses of every individual belonging to that group (i.e. it constitutes a self-included measure). More recently, researchers have developed an aggregate measure which excludes the response of the individual to whom the aggregate measure is linked (i.e. a self-excluded measure). In this study, we clarify the substantive and technical properties of these two measures when they are used as exposures in multilevel models. Methods Although the differences between the two aggregated measures are mathematically subtle, distinguishing between them is important in terms of the specific scientific questions to be addressed. We then show how these measures can be used in two distinct types of multilevel models—self-included model and self-excluded model—and interpret the parameters in each model by imposing hypothetical interventions. The concept is tested on empirical data of workplace social capital and employees' systolic blood pressure. Results Researchers assume group-level interventions when using a self-included model, and individual-level interventions when using a self-excluded model. Analytical re-parameterizations of these two models highlight their differences in parameter interpretation. Cluster-mean centered self-included models enable researchers to decompose the collective effect into its within- and between-group components. The benefit of cluster-mean centering procedure is further discussed in terms of hypothetical interventions. Conclusions When investigating the potential roles of aggregated variables, researchers should carefully explore which type of model—self-included or self-excluded—is suitable for a given situation, particularly when group sizes are relatively small. PMID:23251609

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary wave interactions and its implication for satellite observations: Theoretical modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Branscome, Lee E.; Bleck, Rainer; Obrien, Enda

1990-01-01

The project objectives are to develop process models to investigate the interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves including the effects of latent heat release (precipitation), nonlinear dynamics, physical and boundary-layer processes, and large-scale topography; to determine the importance of latent heat release for temporal variability and time-mean behavior of planetary and synoptic-scale waves; to compare the model results with available observations of planetary and synoptic wave variability; and to assess the implications of the results for monitoring precipitation in oceanic-storm tracks by satellite observing systems. Researchers have utilized two different models for this project: a two-level quasi-geostrophic model to study intraseasonal variability, anomalous circulations and the seasonal cycle, and a 10-level, multi-wave primitive equation model to validate the two-level Q-G model and examine effects of convection, surface processes, and spherical geometry. It explicitly resolves several planetary and synoptic waves and includes specific humidity (as a predicted variable), moist convection, and large-scale precipitation. In the past year researchers have concentrated on experiments with the multi-level primitive equation model. The dynamical part of that model is similar to the spectral model used by the National Meteorological Center for medium-range forecasts. The model includes parameterizations of large-scale condensation and moist convection. To test the validity of results regarding the influence of convective precipitation, researchers can use either one of two different convective schemes in the model, a Kuo convective scheme or a modified Arakawa-Schubert scheme which includes downdrafts. By choosing one or the other scheme, they can evaluate the impact of the convective parameterization on the circulation. In the past year researchers performed a variety of initial-value experiments with the primitive-equation model. Using initial conditions typical of climatological winter conditions, they examined the behavior of synoptic and planetary waves growing in moist and dry environments. Surface conditions were representative of a zonally averaged ocean. They found that moist convection associated with baroclinic wave development was confined to the subtropics.

Clozapine and GABA transmission in schizophrenia disease models: establishing principles to guide treatments.

PubMed

O'Connor, William T; O'Shea, Sean D

2015-06-01

Schizophrenia disease models are necessary to elucidate underlying changes and to establish new therapeutic strategies towards a stage where drug efficacy in schizophrenia (against all classes of symptoms) can be predicted. Here we summarise the evidence for a GABA dysfunction in schizophrenia and review the functional neuroanatomy of five pathways implicated in schizophrenia, namely the mesocortical, mesolimbic, ventral striopallidal, dorsal striopallidal and perforant pathways including the role of local GABA transmission and we describe the effect of clozapine on local neurotransmitter release. This review also evaluates psychotropic drug-induced, neurodevelopmental and environmental disease models including their compatibility with brain microdialysis. The validity of disease models including face, construct, etiological and predictive validity and how these models constitute theories about this illness is also addressed. A disease model based on the effect of the abrupt withdrawal of clozapine on GABA release is also described. The review concludes that while no single animal model is entirely successful in reproducing schizophreniform symptomatology, a disease model based on an ability to prevent and/or reverse the abrupt clozapine discontinuation-induced changes in GABA release in brain regions implicated in schizophrenia may be useful for hypothesis testing and for in vivo screening of novel ligands not limited to a single pharmacological class. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The School Implementation Scale: Measuring Implementation in Response to Intervention Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erickson, Amy Gaumer; Noonan, Pattie M.; Jenson, Ronda

2012-01-01

Models of response to intervention (RTI) have been widely developed and implemented and have expanded to include integrated academic/behavior RTI models. Until recently, evaluation of model effectiveness has focused primarily on student-level data, but additional measures of treatment integrity within these multi-tiered models are emerging to…

Toward a better understanding of helicopter stability derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, R. S.

1982-01-01

An amended six degree of freedom helicopter stability and control derivative model was developed in which body acceleration and control rate derivatives were included in the Taylor series expansion. These additional derivatives were derived from consideration of the effects of the higher order rotor flapping dynamics, which are known to be inadequately represented in the conventional six degree of freedom, quasistatic stability derivative model. The amended model was a substantial improvement over the conventional model, effectively doubling the unsable bandwidth and providing a more accurate representation of the short period and cross axis characteristics. Further investigations assessed the applicability of the two stability derivative model structures for flight test parameter identification. Parameters were identified using simulation data generated from a higher order base line model having sixth order rotor tip path plane dynamics. Three lower order models were identified: one using the conventional stability derivative model structure, a second using the amended six degree of freedom model structure, and a third model having eight degrees of freedom that included a simplified rotor tip path plane tilt representation.

Quantification of the multi-streaming effect in redshift space distortion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Yi; Oh, Minji; Zhang, Pengjie, E-mail: yizheng@kasi.re.kr, E-mail: zhangpj@sjtu.edu.cn, E-mail: minjioh@kasi.re.kr

Both multi-streaming (random motion) and bulk motion cause the Finger-of-God (FoG) effect in redshift space distortion (RSD). We apply a direct measurement of the multi-streaming effect in RSD from simulations, proving that it induces an additional, non-negligible FoG damping to the redshift space density power spectrum. We show that, including the multi-streaming effect, the RSD modelling is significantly improved. We also provide a theoretical explanation based on halo model for the measured effect, including a fitting formula with one to two free parameters. The improved understanding of FoG helps break the f σ{sub 8}−σ {sub v} degeneracy in RSD cosmology,more » and has the potential of significantly improving cosmological constraints.« less

Effort reward imbalance is associated with vagal withdrawal in Danish public sector employees.

PubMed

Eller, Nanna Hurwitz; Blønd, Morten; Nielsen, Martin; Kristiansen, Jesper; Netterstrøm, Bo

2011-09-01

The current study analyzed the relationship between psychosocial work environment assessed by the Effort Reward Imbalance Model (ERI-model) and heart rate variability (HRV) measured at baseline and again, two years later, as this relationship is scarcely covered by the literature. Measurements of HRV during seated rest were obtained from 231 public sector employees. The associations between the ERI-model, and HRV were examined using a series of mixed effects models. The dependent variables were the logarithmically transformed levels of HRV-measures. Gender and year of measurement were included as factors, whereas age, and time of measurement were included as covariates. Subject was included as a random effect. Effort and effort reward imbalance were positively associated with heart rate and the ratio between low frequency (LF) and high frequency power (HF) and negatively associated with total power (TP) and HF. Reward was positively associated with TP. Adverse psychosocial work environment according to the ERI-model was associated with HRV, especially in the form of vagal withdrawal and most pronounced in women. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of surface roughness on the contact stiffness and the contact filter effect in nonlinear wheel-track interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundberg, Oskar E.; Nordborg, Anders; Lopez Arteaga, Ines

2016-03-01

A state-dependent contact model including nonlinear contact stiffness and nonlinear contact filtering is used to calculate contact forces and rail vibrations with a time-domain wheel-track interaction model. In the proposed method, the full three-dimensional contact geometry is reduced to a point contact in order to lower the computational cost and to reduce the amount of required input roughness-data. Green's functions including the linear dynamics of the wheel and the track are coupled with a point contact model, leading to a numerically efficient model for the wheel-track interaction. Nonlinear effects due to the shape and roughness of the wheel and the rail surfaces are included in the point contact model by pre-calculation of functions for the contact stiffness and contact filters. Numerical results are compared to field measurements of rail vibrations for passenger trains running at 200 kph on a ballast track. Moreover, the influence of vehicle pre-load and different degrees of roughness excitation on the resulting wheel-track interaction is studied by means of numerical predictions.

Effect of Bearing Housings on Centrifugal Pump Rotor Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yashchenko, A. S.; Rudenko, A. A.; Simonovskiy, V. I.; Kozlov, O. M.

2017-08-01

The article deals with the effect of a bearing housing on rotor dynamics of a barrel casing centrifugal boiler feed pump rotor. The calculation of the rotor model including the bearing housing has been performed by the method of initial parameters. The calculation of a rotor solid model including the bearing housing has been performed by the finite element method. Results of both calculations highlight the need to add bearing housings into dynamic analyses of the pump rotor. The calculation performed by modern software packages is more a time-taking process, at the same time it is a preferred one due to a graphic editor that is employed for creating a numerical model. When it is necessary to view many variants of design parameters, programs for beam modeling should be used.

Further improvements of a new model for turbulent convection in stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canuto, V. M.; Mazzitelli, I.

1992-01-01

The effects of including a variable molecular weight and of using the newest opacities of Rogers and Iglesias (1991) as inputs to a recent model by Canuto and Mazzitelli (1991) for stellar turbulent convection are studied. Solar evolutionary tracks are used to conclude that the the original model for turbulence with mixing length Lambda = z, Giuli's variable Q unequal to 1 and the new opacities yields a fit to solar T(eff) within 0.5 percent. A formulation of Lambda is proposed that extends the purely nonlocal Lambda = z expression to include local effects. A new expression for Lambda is obtained which generalizes both the mixing length theory (MLT) phenomenological expression for Lambda as well as the model Lambda = z. It is argued that the MLT should now be abandoned.

A distribution model for the aerial application of granular agricultural particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fernandes, S. T.; Ormsbee, A. I.

1978-01-01

A model is developed to predict the shape of the distribution of granular agricultural particles applied by aircraft. The particle is assumed to have a random size and shape and the model includes the effect of air resistance, distributor geometry and aircraft wake. General requirements for the maintenance of similarity of the distribution for scale model tests are derived and are addressed to the problem of a nongeneral drag law. It is shown that if the mean and variance of the particle diameter and density are scaled according to the scaling laws governing the system, the shape of the distribution will be preserved. Distributions are calculated numerically and show the effect of a random initial lateral position, particle size and drag coefficient. A listing of the computer code is included.

Anisotropic Shear Dispersion Parameterization for Mesoscale Eddy Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reckinger, S. J.; Fox-Kemper, B.

2016-02-01

The effects of mesoscale eddies are universally treated isotropically in general circulation models. However, the processes that the parameterization approximates, such as shear dispersion, typically have strongly anisotropic characteristics. The Gent-McWilliams/Redi mesoscale eddy parameterization is extended for anisotropy and tested using 1-degree Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations. The sensitivity of the model to anisotropy includes a reduction of temperature and salinity biases, a deepening of the southern ocean mixed-layer depth, and improved ventilation of biogeochemical tracers, particularly in oxygen minimum zones. The parameterization is further extended to include the effects of unresolved shear dispersion, which sets the strength and direction of anisotropy. The shear dispersion parameterization is similar to drifter observations in spatial distribution of diffusivity and high-resolution model diagnosis in the distribution of eddy flux orientation.

A lattice hydrodynamic model based on delayed feedback control considering the effect of flow rate difference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yunong; Cheng, Rongjun; Ge, Hongxia

2017-08-01

In this paper, a lattice hydrodynamic model is derived considering not only the effect of flow rate difference but also the delayed feedback control signal which including more comprehensive information. The control method is used to analyze the stability of the model. Furthermore, the critical condition for the linear steady traffic flow is deduced and the numerical simulation is carried out to investigate the advantage of the proposed model with and without the effect of flow rate difference and the control signal. The results are consistent with the theoretical analysis correspondingly.

Movement ecology: size-specific behavioral response of an invasive snail to food availability.

PubMed

Snider, Sunny B; Gilliam, James F

2008-07-01

Immigration, emigration, migration, and redistribution describe processes that involve movement of individuals. These movements are an essential part of contemporary ecological models, and understanding how movement is affected by biotic and abiotic factors is important for effectively modeling ecological processes that depend on movement. We asked how phenotypic heterogeneity (body size) and environmental heterogeneity (food resource level) affect the movement behavior of an aquatic snail (Tarebia granifera), and whether including these phenotypic and environmental effects improves advection-diffusion models of movement. We postulated various elaborations of the basic advection diffusion model as a priori working hypotheses. To test our hypotheses we measured individual snail movements in experimental streams at high- and low-food resource treatments. Using these experimental movement data, we examined the dependency of model selection on resource level and body size using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). At low resources, large individuals moved faster than small individuals, producing a platykurtic movement distribution; including size dependency in the model improved model performance. In stark contrast, at high resources, individuals moved upstream together as a wave, and body size differences largely disappeared. The model selection exercise indicated that population heterogeneity is best described by the advection component of movement for this species, because the top-ranked model included size dependency in advection, but not diffusion. Also, all probable models included resource dependency. Thus population and environmental heterogeneities both influence individual movement behaviors and the population-level distribution kernels, and their interaction may drive variation in movement behaviors in terms of both advection rates and diffusion rates. A behaviorally informed modeling framework will integrate the sentient response of individuals in terms of movement and enhance our ability to accurately model ecological processes that depend on animal movement.

Effects of energetic particle phase space modifications by instabilities on integrated modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podestà, M.; Gorelenkova, M.; Fredrickson, E. D.; Gorelenkov, N. N.; White, R. B.

2016-11-01

Tokamak plasmas can feature a large population of energetic particles (EP) from neutral beam injection or fusion reactions. In turn, energetic particles can drive instabilities, which affect the driving EP population leading to a distortion of the original EP distribution function and of quantities that depend on it. The latter include, for example, neutral beam (NB) current drive and plasma heating through EP thermalization. Those effects must be taken into account to enable reliable and quantitative simulations of discharges for present devices as well as predictions for future burning plasmas. Reduced models for EP transport are emerging as an effective tool for long time-scale integrated simulations of tokamak plasmas, possibly including the effects of instabilities on EP dynamics. Available models differ in how EP distribution properties are modified by instabilities, e.g. in terms of gradients in real or phase space. It is therefore crucial to assess to what extent different assumptions in the transport models affect predicted quantities such as EP profile, energy distribution, NB driven current and energy/momentum transfer to the thermal populations. A newly developed kick model, which includes modifications of the EP distribution by instabilities in both real and velocity space, is used in this work to investigate these issues. Coupled to TRANSP simulations, the kick model is used to analyze NB-heated NSTX and DIII-D discharges featuring unstable Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs). Results show that instabilities can strongly affect the EP distribution function, and modifications propagate to macroscopic quantities such as NB-driven current profile and NB power transferred to the thermal plasma species. Those important aspects are only qualitatively captured by simpler fast ion transport models that are based on radial diffusion of energetic ions only.

Modelling the effect of acoustic waves on the thermodynamics and kinetics of phase transformation in a solution: Including mass transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haqshenas, S. R.; Ford, I. J.; Saffari, N.

2018-01-01

Effects of acoustic waves on a phase transformation in a metastable phase were investigated in our previous work [S. R. Haqshenas, I. J. Ford, and N. Saffari, "Modelling the effect of acoustic waves on nucleation," J. Chem. Phys. 145, 024315 (2016)]. We developed a non-equimolar dividing surface cluster model and employed it to determine the thermodynamics and kinetics of crystallisation induced by an acoustic field in a mass-conserved system. In the present work, we developed a master equation based on a hybrid Szilard-Fokker-Planck model, which accounts for mass transportation due to acoustic waves. This model can determine the kinetics of nucleation and the early stage of growth of clusters including the Ostwald ripening phenomenon. It was solved numerically to calculate the kinetics of an isothermal sonocrystallisation process in a system with mass transportation. The simulation results show that the effect of mass transportation for different excitations depends on the waveform as well as the imposed boundary conditions and tends to be noticeable in the case of shock waves. The derivations are generic and can be used with any acoustic source and waveform.

Modelling the effect of acoustic waves on the thermodynamics and kinetics of phase transformation in a solution: Including mass transportation.

PubMed

Haqshenas, S R; Ford, I J; Saffari, N

2018-01-14

Effects of acoustic waves on a phase transformation in a metastable phase were investigated in our previous work [S. R. Haqshenas, I. J. Ford, and N. Saffari, "Modelling the effect of acoustic waves on nucleation," J. Chem. Phys. 145, 024315 (2016)]. We developed a non-equimolar dividing surface cluster model and employed it to determine the thermodynamics and kinetics of crystallisation induced by an acoustic field in a mass-conserved system. In the present work, we developed a master equation based on a hybrid Szilard-Fokker-Planck model, which accounts for mass transportation due to acoustic waves. This model can determine the kinetics of nucleation and the early stage of growth of clusters including the Ostwald ripening phenomenon. It was solved numerically to calculate the kinetics of an isothermal sonocrystallisation process in a system with mass transportation. The simulation results show that the effect of mass transportation for different excitations depends on the waveform as well as the imposed boundary conditions and tends to be noticeable in the case of shock waves. The derivations are generic and can be used with any acoustic source and waveform.

Applicability of a panel method, which includes nonlinear effects, to a forward-swept-wing aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, J. C.

1984-01-01

The ability of a lower order panel method VSAERO, to accurately predict the lift and pitching moment of a complete forward-swept-wing/canard configuration was investigated. The program can simulate nonlinear effects including boundary-layer displacement thickness, wake roll up, and to a limited extent, separated wakes. The predictions were compared with experimental data obtained using a small-scale model in the 7- by 10- Foot Wind Tunnel at NASA Ames Research Center. For the particular configuration under investigation, wake roll up had only a small effect on the force and moment predictions. The effect of the displacement thickness modeling was to reduce the lift curve slope slightly, thus bringing the predicted lift into good agreement with the measured value. Pitching moment predictions were also improved by the boundary-layer simulation. The separation modeling was found to be sensitive to user inputs, but appears to give a reasonable representation of a separated wake. In general, the nonlinear capabilities of the code were found to improve the agreement with experimental data. The usefullness of the code would be enhanced by improving the reliability of the separated wake modeling and by the addition of a leading edge separation model.

Creatine Revealed Anticonvulsant Properties on Chemically and Electrically Induced Seizures in Mice.

PubMed

Shafaroodi, Hamed; Shahbek, Farnaz; Faizi, Mehrdad; Ebrahimi, Farzad; Moezi, Leila

2016-01-01

Creatine exerts beneficial effects on a variety of pathologies in which energy metabolism and oxidative stress play an etiological role. Creatine supplements have shown beneficial effects on neurological disorders including Parkinson׳s disease, Huntington›s disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, as well as Alzheimer›s disease and stroke. However, the potential benefits of creatine for patients with convulsive disorders remain poorly defined. While some authors did not suggest any anti- or pro-convulsant roles for creatine treatment, others suggest that creatine may be an anticonvulsant agent. In this study, we investigated the effects of creatine on seizures in mice. Three models were used to explore the role of creatine on seizures in mice including intravenous pentylenetetrazole (PTZ), intraperitoneal PTZ, and electroshock models. Acute creatine treatment (10, 20, 40 and 80 mg/Kg) significantly increased the clonic seizure threshold in the intravenous PTZ model. Sub-chronic administration of creatine (10 and 20 mg/Kg) revealed a significant anticonvulsant effect in intravenous PTZ model. Acute creatine administration (10, 20 and 40 mg/Kg) significantly decreased the frequency of clonic seizures in the intraperitoneal PTZ model. Besides, acute creatine (40 and 80 mg/Kg) decreased the incidence of tonic seizures after electroshock. In conclusion, creatine exerts anticonvulsant effects in three seizure models; therefore, it may act as a potential drug to help patients with convulsions. However, further investigations should be done to clarify these results more.

Creatine Revealed Anticonvulsant Properties on Chemically and Electrically Induced Seizures in Mice

PubMed Central

Shafaroodi, Hamed; Shahbek, Farnaz; Faizi, Mehrdad; Ebrahimi, Farzad; Moezi, Leila

2016-01-01

Creatine exerts beneficial effects on a variety of pathologies in which energy metabolism and oxidative stress play an etiological role. Creatine supplements have shown beneficial effects on neurological disorders including Parkinson׳s disease, Huntington›s disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, as well as Alzheimer›s disease and stroke. However, the potential benefits of creatine for patients with convulsive disorders remain poorly defined. While some authors did not suggest any anti- or pro-convulsant roles for creatine treatment, others suggest that creatine may be an anticonvulsant agent. In this study, we investigated the effects of creatine on seizures in mice. Three models were used to explore the role of creatine on seizures in mice including intravenous pentylenetetrazole (PTZ), intraperitoneal PTZ, and electroshock models. Acute creatine treatment (10, 20, 40 and 80 mg/Kg) significantly increased the clonic seizure threshold in the intravenous PTZ model. Sub-chronic administration of creatine (10 and 20 mg/Kg) revealed a significant anticonvulsant effect in intravenous PTZ model. Acute creatine administration (10, 20 and 40 mg/Kg) significantly decreased the frequency of clonic seizures in the intraperitoneal PTZ model. Besides, acute creatine (40 and 80 mg/Kg) decreased the incidence of tonic seizures after electroshock. In conclusion, creatine exerts anticonvulsant effects in three seizure models; therefore, it may act as a potential drug to help patients with convulsions. However, further investigations should be done to clarify these results more. PMID:28243281

Sensor Fault Diagnosis in Quadrotors Using Nonlinear Adaptive Estimators

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-02

Mahony, & Gre- sham, 2004; Bangura & Mahony, 2012) have aimed for higher modeling accuracy by including drag force, Coriolis effects , blade flapping... effectiveness of the pro- posed method. 1. INTRODUCTION Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have attracted significant attentions in recent years due to... effects etc. Accurate modeling plays an impor- tant role in quadrotor control, especially in the case of aggres- sive maneuvers, tight group formations

Effects of sediment transport on survival of salmonid embryos in a natural stream: A simulation approach

Treesearch

Thomas E. Lisle; Jack Lewis

1992-01-01

A model is presented that simulates the effects of streamflow and sediment transport on survival of salmonid embryos incubating in spawning gravels in a natural channel. Components of the model include a 6-yr streamflow record, an empirical bed load-transport function, a relation between transport and infiltration of sandy bedload into a gravel bed, effects of fine-...

Modeling effects of traffic and landscape characteristics on ambient nitrogen dioxide levels in Connecticut

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skene, Katherine J.; Gent, Janneane F.; McKay, Lisa A.; Belanger, Kathleen; Leaderer, Brian P.; Holford, Theodore R.

2010-12-01

An integrated exposure model was developed that estimates nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) concentration at residences using geographic information systems (GIS) and variables derived within residential buffers representing traffic volume and landscape characteristics including land use, population density and elevation. Multiple measurements of NO 2 taken outside of 985 residences in Connecticut were used to develop the model. A second set of 120 outdoor NO 2 measurements as well as cross-validation were used to validate the model. The model suggests that approximately 67% of the variation in NO 2 levels can be explained by: traffic and land use primarily within 2 km of a residence; population density; elevation; and time of year. Potential benefits of this model for health effects research include improved spatial estimations of traffic-related pollutant exposure and reduced need for extensive pollutant measurements. The model, which could be calibrated and applied in areas other than Connecticut, has importance as a tool for exposure estimation in epidemiological studies of traffic-related air pollution.

A vine copula mixed effect model for trivariate meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies accounting for disease prevalence.

PubMed

Nikoloulopoulos, Aristidis K

2017-10-01

A bivariate copula mixed model has been recently proposed to synthesize diagnostic test accuracy studies and it has been shown that it is superior to the standard generalized linear mixed model in this context. Here, we call trivariate vine copulas to extend the bivariate meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies by accounting for disease prevalence. Our vine copula mixed model includes the trivariate generalized linear mixed model as a special case and can also operate on the original scale of sensitivity, specificity, and disease prevalence. Our general methodology is illustrated by re-analyzing the data of two published meta-analyses. Our study suggests that there can be an improvement on trivariate generalized linear mixed model in fit to data and makes the argument for moving to vine copula random effects models especially because of their richness, including reflection asymmetric tail dependence, and computational feasibility despite their three dimensionality.

THE AQUATOX MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

This lecture will present AQUATOX, an aquatic ecosystem simulation model developed by Dr. Dick Park and supported by the U.S. EPA. The AQUATOX model predicts the fate of various pollutants, such as nutrients and organic chemicals, and their effects on the ecosystem, including fi...

Seemingly unrelated intervention time series models for effectiveness evaluation of large scale environmental remediation.

PubMed

Ip, Ryan H L; Li, W K; Leung, Kenneth M Y

2013-09-15

Large scale environmental remediation projects applied to sea water always involve large amount of capital investments. Rigorous effectiveness evaluations of such projects are, therefore, necessary and essential for policy review and future planning. This study aims at investigating effectiveness of environmental remediation using three different Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) time series models with intervention effects, including Model (1) assuming no correlation within and across variables, Model (2) assuming no correlation across variable but allowing correlations within variable across different sites, and Model (3) allowing all possible correlations among variables (i.e., an unrestricted model). The results suggested that the unrestricted SUR model is the most reliable one, consistently having smallest variations of the estimated model parameters. We discussed our results with reference to marine water quality management in Hong Kong while bringing managerial issues into consideration. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Telephone-based disease management: why it does not save money.

PubMed

Motheral, Brenda R

2011-01-01

To understand why the current telephone-based model of disease management (DM) does not provide cost savings and how DM can be retooled based on the best available evidence to deliver better value. Literature review. The published peer-reviewed evaluations of DM and transitional care models from 1990 to 2010 were reviewed. Also examined was the cost-effectiveness literature on the treatment of chronic conditions that are commonly included in DM programs, including heart failure, diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, and asthma. First, transitional care models, which have historically been confused with commercial DM programs, can provide credible savings over a short period, rendering them low-hanging fruit for plan sponsors who desire real savings. Second, cost-effectiveness research has shown that the individual activities that constitute contemporary DM programs are not cost saving except for heart failure. Targeting of specific patients and activity combinations based on risk, actionability, treatment and program effectiveness, and costs will be necessary to deliver a cost-saving DM program, combined with an outreach model that brings vendors closer to the patient and physician. Barriers to this evidence-driven approach include resources required, marketability, and business model disruption. After a decade of market experimentation with limited success, new thinking is called for in the design of DM programs. A program design that is based on a cost-effectiveness approach, combined with greater program efficacy, will allow for the development of DM programs that are cost saving.

The influence of prefire tree growth and crown condition on postfire mortality of sugar pine following prescribed fire in Sequoia National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nesmith, Jonathan C. B.; Das, Adrian J.; O'Hara, Kevin L.; van Mantgem, Phillip J.

2015-01-01

Tree mortality is a vital component of forest management in the context of prescribed fires; however, few studies have examined the effect of prefire tree health on postfire mortality. This is especially relevant for sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana Douglas), a species experiencing population declines due to a suite of anthropogenic factors. Using data from an old-growth mixed-conifer forest in Sequoia National Park, we evaluated the effects of fire, tree size, prefire radial growth, and crown condition on postfire mortality. Models based only on tree size and measures of fire damage were compared with models that included tree size, fire damage, and prefire tree health (e.g., measures of prefire tree radial growth or crown condition). Immediately following the fire, the inclusion of different metrics of prefire tree health produced variable improvements over the models that included only tree size and measures of fire damage, as models that included measures of crown condition performed better than fire-only models, but models that included measures of prefire radial growth did not perform better. However, 5 years following the fire, sugar pine mortality was best predicted by models that included measures of both fire damage and prefire tree health, specifically, diameter at breast height (DBH, 1.37 m), crown scorch, 30-year mean growth, and the number of sharp declines in growth over a 30-year period. This suggests that factors that influence prefire tree health (e.g., drought, competition, pathogens, etc.) may partially determine postfire mortality, especially when accounting for delayed mortality following fire.

Model of lidar range-Doppler signatures of solid rocket fuel plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bankman, Isaac N.; Giles, John W.; Chan, Stephen C.; Reed, Robert A.

2004-09-01

The analysis of particles produced by solid rocket motor fuels relates to two types of studies: the effect of these particles on the Earth's ozone layer, and the dynamic flight behavior of solid fuel boosters used by the NASA Space Shuttle. Since laser backscatter depends on the particle size and concentration, a lidar system can be used to analyze the particle distributions inside a solid rocket plume in flight. We present an analytical model that simulates the lidar returns from solid rocket plumes including effects of beam profile, spot size, polarization and sensing geometry. The backscatter and extinction coefficients of alumina particles are computed with the T-matrix method that can address non-spherical particles. The outputs of the model include time-resolved return pulses and range-Doppler signatures. Presented examples illustrate the effects of sensing geometry.

Longitudinal Effects of Early Childhood Maltreatment on Co-Occurring Substance Misuse and Mental Health Problems in Adulthood: The Role of Adolescent Alcohol Use and Depression

PubMed Central

Skinner, Martie L.; Hong, Seunghye; Herrenkohl, Todd I.; Brown, Eric C.; Lee, Jungeun Olivia; Jung, Hyunzee

2016-01-01

Objective: This study tested a developmental model in which subtypes of childhood maltreatment were hypothesized to have direct and indirect effects on co-occurring depression, anxiety, and substance misuse in adulthood. Indirect effects involved adolescent alcohol use and depression, which were included as mediators in the tested models. Method: This prospective longitudinal study (N = 332; 52.4% male) followed the participants from childhood (18 months to 6 years of age) to adulthood (31–41 years old, M = 36.21). Maltreatment subtypes included parent-reported physical and emotional abuse and child-reported sexual abuse. Adult outcomes included measures of substance misuse and mental health (i.e., depression and anxiety). Latent class analysis and structural equation models were used to identify classes of substance misuse and mental health co-occurrence and to test mediating effects of adolescent alcohol use and depression. Results: Three classes were identified: (a) low risk of substance misuse and low mental health symptoms, (b) moderate substance misuse risk and mild depression and anxiety, and (c) moderate substance misuse risk and moderate to high depression and anxiety. Structural models showed that effects of childhood sexual abuse were fully mediated by adolescent alcohol use and depression. Physical abuse increased adolescent depression but did not have direct or indirect effects on adult outcome classes. Emotional abuse had a direct effect on the adult classes. Conclusions: Children exposed to severe emotional abuse are at higher risk for comorbid substance misuse, depression, and anxiety into their mid-30s, after taking into account evidence of alcohol use and depression during adolescence. Sexual and physical abuse have more proximal effects on adolescent alcohol use and depression, which then influence the risk of adult problems. PMID:27172579

Multi-Group Covariance and Mean Structure Modeling of the Relationship between the WAIS-III Common Factors and Sex and Educational Attainment in Spain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dolan, Conor V.; Colom, Roberto; Abad, Francisco J.; Wicherts, Jelte M.; Hessen, David J.; van de Sluis, Sophie

2006-01-01

We investigated sex effects and the effects of educational attainment (EA) on the covariance structure of the WAIS-III in a subsample of the Spanish standardization data. We fitted both first order common factor models and second order common factor models. The latter include general intelligence ("g") as a second order common factor.…

Estimating the Health Effects of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies: Addressing Parametric, Model, and Valuation Challenges

PubMed Central

Hess, Jeremy J.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Markandya, Anil; Balbus, John M.; Wilkinson, Paul; Haines, Andy; Chalabi, Zaid

2014-01-01

Background: Policy decisions regarding climate change mitigation are increasingly incorporating the beneficial and adverse health impacts of greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies. Studies of such co-benefits and co-harms involve modeling approaches requiring a range of analytic decisions that affect the model output. Objective: Our objective was to assess analytic decisions regarding model framework, structure, choice of parameters, and handling of uncertainty when modeling health co-benefits, and to make recommendations for improvements that could increase policy uptake. Methods: We describe the assumptions and analytic decisions underlying models of mitigation co-benefits, examining their effects on modeling outputs, and consider tools for quantifying uncertainty. Discussion: There is considerable variation in approaches to valuation metrics, discounting methods, uncertainty characterization and propagation, and assessment of low-probability/high-impact events. There is also variable inclusion of adverse impacts of mitigation policies, and limited extension of modeling domains to include implementation considerations. Going forward, co-benefits modeling efforts should be carried out in collaboration with policy makers; these efforts should include the full range of positive and negative impacts and critical uncertainties, as well as a range of discount rates, and should explicitly characterize uncertainty. We make recommendations to improve the rigor and consistency of modeling of health co-benefits. Conclusion: Modeling health co-benefits requires systematic consideration of the suitability of model assumptions, of what should be included and excluded from the model framework, and how uncertainty should be treated. Increased attention to these and other analytic decisions has the potential to increase the policy relevance and application of co-benefits modeling studies, potentially helping policy makers to maximize mitigation potential while simultaneously improving health. Citation: Remais JV, Hess JJ, Ebi KL, Markandya A, Balbus JM, Wilkinson P, Haines A, Chalabi Z. 2014. Estimating the health effects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies: addressing parametric, model, and valuation challenges. Environ Health Perspect 122:447–455; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306744 PMID:24583270

The role of sea ice dynamics in global climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hibler, William D., III

1992-01-01

The topics covered include the following: general characteristics of sea ice drift; sea ice rheology; ice thickness distribution; sea ice thermodynamic models; equilibrium thermodynamic models; effect of internal brine pockets and snow cover; model simulations of Arctic Sea ice; and sensitivity of sea ice models to climate change.

Cognitive-Perceptual Factors in the Political Alienation Process: A Test of Six Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Long, Samuel

The effectiveness of sex research models which measure adolescents' feelings of political alienation is investigated and discussed and a new model is formulated. The six models include life dissatisfaction, personal depreciation, critical perceptions of political reality, irrational beliefs, perceptions of political threat, and cognitive…

Theoretical model for a Faraday anomalous dispersion optical filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yin, B.; Shay, T. M.

1991-01-01

A model for the Faraday anomalous dispersion optical filter is presented. The model predicts a bandwidth of 0.6 GHz and a transmission peak of 0.98 for a filter operating on the Cs (D2) line. The model includes hyperfine effects and is valid for arbitrary magnetic fields.

Bayesian GGE biplot models applied to maize multi-environments trials.

PubMed

de Oliveira, L A; da Silva, C P; Nuvunga, J J; da Silva, A Q; Balestre, M

2016-06-17

The additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) and the genotype main effects and genotype x environment interaction (GGE) models stand out among the linear-bilinear models used in genotype x environment interaction studies. Despite the advantages of their use to describe genotype x environment (AMMI) or genotype and genotype x environment (GGE) interactions, these methods have known limitations that are inherent to fixed effects models, including difficulty in treating variance heterogeneity and missing data. Traditional biplots include no measure of uncertainty regarding the principal components. The present study aimed to apply the Bayesian approach to GGE biplot models and assess the implications for selecting stable and adapted genotypes. Our results demonstrated that the Bayesian approach applied to GGE models with non-informative priors was consistent with the traditional GGE biplot analysis, although the credible region incorporated into the biplot enabled distinguishing, based on probability, the performance of genotypes, and their relationships with the environments in the biplot. Those regions also enabled the identification of groups of genotypes and environments with similar effects in terms of adaptability and stability. The relative position of genotypes and environments in biplots is highly affected by the experimental accuracy. Thus, incorporation of uncertainty in biplots is a key tool for breeders to make decisions regarding stability selection and adaptability and the definition of mega-environments.

Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure

Treesearch

Frederick W. Bratten

1982-01-01

A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized "fire management situations" are used to represent actual fire...

Combined measurement and modeling of the hydrological impact of hydraulic redistribution using CLM4.5 at eight AmeriFlux sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Effects of hydraulic redistribution (HR) on hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes have been demonstrated in the field, but the current generation of standard earth system models does not include a representation of HR. Though recent studies have examined the effect of incorporating ...

Chapter 7: Developing climate-informed state-and-transition models

Treesearch

Miles A. Hemstrom; Jessica E. Halofsky; David R. Conklin; Joshua S. Halofsky; Dominique Bachelet; Becky K. Kerns

2014-01-01

Land managers and others need ways to understand the potential effects of climate change on local vegetation types and how management activities might be impacted by climate change. To date, climate change impact models have not included localized vegetation communities or the integrated effects of vegetation development dynamics, natural disturbances, and management...

Laboratory simulation of the action of weightlessness on the human organism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Genin, A. M.

1977-01-01

A brief history of attemps by the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. to simulate weightlessness in the laboratory is presented. Model for laboratory modeling of weightlessness included the bed regimen, the clinostat, and water immersion. An outline of immediate physiological effects of weightlessness and long term effects is offered.

Effects of OCR Errors on Ranking and Feedback Using the Vector Space Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taghva, Kazem; And Others

1996-01-01

Reports on the performance of the vector space model in the presence of OCR (optical character recognition) errors in information retrieval. Highlights include precision and recall, a full-text test collection, smart vector representation, impact of weighting parameters, ranking variability, and the effect of relevance feedback. (Author/LRW)

Double Collins effect in e+e-→Λ Λ ¯ X and e+e-→Λ π X processes in a diquark spectator model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaoyu; Yang, Yongliang; Lu, Zhun

2018-06-01

We study the Collins function H1⊥ of the Λ hyperon, which describes the fragmentation of a transversely polarized quark into an unpolarized Λ hyperon. We calculate H1⊥ for light quarks of the Λ hyperon, in the diquark spectator model with a Gaussian form factor for the hyperon-quark-diquark vertex. The model calculation includes contributions from both the scalar diquark and vector diquark spectators. Using the model result, we estimate the azimuthal asymmetry A12, which appears in the ratio of unlike-sign events to like-sign events contributed by double Collins effects, in the processes e+e-→Λ Λ ¯X and e+e-→Λ π X . The QCD evolution effects for the half kT moment of the Collins function and the unpolarized fragmentation function D1(z ) are also included. The results show that the asymmetries are sizable and measurable at the kinematical configurations of Belle and BABAR experiments. We also find that the evolution effects play an important role in the phenomenological analysis.

Studies of ion kinetic effects in OMEGA shock-driven implosions using fusion burn imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenberg, M. J.; Seguin, F. H.; Rinderknecht, H. G.; Sio, H.; Zylstra, A. B.; Gatu Johnson, M.; Frenje, J. A.; Li, C. K.; Petrasso, R. D.; Amendt, P. A.; Wilks, S. C.; Zimmerman, G.; Hoffman, N. M.; Kagan, G.; Molvig, K.; Glebov, V. Yu.; Stoeckl, C.; Marshall, F. J.; Seka, W.; Delettrez, J. A.; Sangster, T. C.; Betti, R.; Meyerhofer, D. D.; Atzeni, S.; Nikroo, A.

2014-10-01

Ion kinetic effects have been inferred in a series of shock-driven implosions at OMEGA from an increasing yield discrepancy between observations and hydrodynamic simulations as the ion-ion mean free path increases. To more precisely identify the nature and impact of ion kinetic effects, spatial burn profile measurements of DD and D3He reactions in these D3He-filled shock-driven implosions are presented and contrasted to both purely hydrodynamic models and models that include ion kinetic effects. It is shown that in implosions where the ion mean free path is equal to or greater than the size of the fuel region, purely hydrodynamic models fail to capture the observed burn profiles, while a model that includes ion diffusion is able to recover the observed burn profile shape. These results further elucidate the ion kinetic mechanisms that are present under long mean-free-path conditions after shock convergence in both shock-driven and ablatively-driven implosions. This work was supported in part by the U.S. DOE, NLUF, LLE, and LLNL.

GNSS orbit determination by precise modeling of non-gravitational forces acting on satellite's body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielgosz, Agata; Kalarus, Maciej; Liwosz, Tomasz

2016-04-01

Satellites orbiting around Earth are affected by gravitational forces and non-gravitational perturbations (NGP). While the perturbations caused by gravitational forces, which are due to central body gravity (including high-precision geopotential field) and its changes (due to secular variations and tides), solar bodies attraction and relativistic effects are well-modeled, the perturbations caused by the non-gravitational forces are the most limiting factor in Precise Orbit Determination (POD). In this work we focused on very precise non-gravitational force modeling for medium Earth orbit satellites by applying the various models of solar radiation pressure including changes in solar irradiance and Earth/Moon shadow transition, Earth albedo and thermal radiation. For computing influence of aforementioned forces on spacecraft the analytical box-wing satellite model was applied. Smaller effects like antenna thrust or spacecraft thermal radiation were also included. In the process of orbit determination we compared the orbit with analytically computed NGP with the standard procedure in which CODE model is fitted for NGP recovery. We considered satellites from several systems and on different orbits and for different periods: when the satellite is all the time in full sunlight and when transits the umbra and penumbra regions.

New simulation model of multicomponent crystal growth and inhibition.

PubMed

Wathen, Brent; Kuiper, Michael; Walker, Virginia; Jia, Zongchao

2004-04-02

We review a novel computational model for the study of crystal structures both on their own and in conjunction with inhibitor molecules. The model advances existing Monte Carlo (MC) simulation techniques by extending them from modeling 3D crystal surface patches to modeling entire 3D crystals, and by including the use of "complex" multicomponent molecules within the simulations. These advances makes it possible to incorporate the 3D shape and non-uniform surface properties of inhibitors into simulations, and to study what effect these inhibitor properties have on the growth of whole crystals containing up to tens of millions of molecules. The application of this extended MC model to the study of antifreeze proteins (AFPs) and their effects on ice formation is reported, including the success of the technique in achieving AFP-induced ice-growth inhibition with concurrent changes to ice morphology that mimic experimental results. Simulations of ice-growth inhibition suggest that the degree of inhibition afforded by an AFP is a function of its ice-binding position relative to the underlying anisotropic growth pattern of ice. This extended MC technique is applicable to other crystal and crystal-inhibitor systems, including more complex crystal systems such as clathrates.

Consistent parameter fixing in the quark-meson model with vacuum fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carignano, Stefano; Buballa, Michael; Elkamhawy, Wael

2016-08-01

We revisit the renormalization prescription for the quark-meson model in an extended mean-field approximation, where vacuum quark fluctuations are included. At a given cutoff scale the model parameters are fixed by fitting vacuum quantities, typically including the sigma-meson mass mσ and the pion decay constant fπ. In most publications the latter is identified with the expectation value of the sigma field, while for mσ the curvature mass is taken. When quark loops are included, this prescription is however inconsistent, and the correct identification involves the renormalized pion decay constant and the sigma pole mass. In the present article we investigate the influence of the parameter-fixing scheme on the phase structure of the model at finite temperature and chemical potential. Despite large differences between the model parameters in the two schemes, we find that in homogeneous matter the effect on the phase diagram is relatively small. For inhomogeneous phases, on the other hand, the choice of the proper renormalization prescription is crucial. In particular, we show that if renormalization effects on the pion decay constant are not considered, the model does not even present a well-defined renormalized limit when the cutoff is sent to infinity.

Zebrafish for the Study of the Biological Effects of Nicotine

PubMed Central

Klee, Eric W.; Schneider, Henning; Hurt, Richard D.; Ekker, Stephen C.

2011-01-01

Introduction: Zebrafish are emerging as a powerful animal model for studying the molecular and physiological effects of nicotine exposure. The zebrafish have many advantageous physical characteristics, including small size, high fecundity rates, and externally developing transparent embryos. When combined with a battery of molecular–genetic tools and behavioral assays, these attributes enable studies to be conducted that are not practical using traditional animal models. Methods: We reviewed the literature on the application of the zebrafish model as a preclinical model to study the biological effects of nicotine exposure. Results: The identified studies used zebrafish to examine the effects of nicotine exposure on early development, addiction, anxiety, and learning. The methods used included green fluorescent protein–labeled proteins to track in vivo nicotine-altered neuron development, nicotine-conditioned place preference, and locomotive sensitization linked with high-throughput molecular and genetic screens and behavioral models of learning and stress response to nicotine. Data are presented on the complete homology of all known human neural nicotinic acetylcholine receptors in zebrafish and on the biological similarity of human and zebrafish dopaminergic signaling. Conclusions: Tobacco dependence remains a major health problem worldwide. Further understanding of the molecular effects of nicotine exposure and genetic contributions to dependence may lead to improvement in patient treatment strategies. While there are limitations to the use of zebrafish as a preclinical model, it should provide a valuable tool to complement existing model systems. The reviewed studies demonstrate the enormous opportunity zebrafish have to advance the science of nicotine and tobacco research. PMID:21385906

Associative Accounts of Recovery-from-Extinction Effects

PubMed Central

McConnell, Bridget L.; Miller, Ralph R.

2014-01-01

Recovery-from-extinction effects (e.g., spontaneous recovery, renewal, reinstatement, and facilitated reacquisition) have become the focus of much research in recent years. However, despite a great deal of empirical data, there are few theoretical explanations for these effects. This paucity poses a severe limitation on our understanding of these behavioral effects, impedes advances in uncovering neural mechanisms of response recovery, and reduces our potential to prevent relapse after exposure therapy. Towards correcting this oversight, this review takes prominent models of associative learning that have been used in the past and continue to be used today to explain Pavlovian conditioning and extinction, and assesses how each model can be applied to account for recovery-from-extinction effects. The models include the Rescorla-Wagner (1972) model, Mackintosh's (1975) attentional model, Pearce and Hall's (1980) attentional model, Wagner's (1981) SOP model, Pearce's (1987) configural model, McLaren and Mackintosh's (2002) elemental model, and Stout and Miller's (2007) SOCR (comparator hypothesis) model. Each model is assessed for how well it explains or does not explain the various recovery-from-extinction phenomena. We offer some suggestions for how the models might be modified to account for these effects in those instances in which they initially fail. PMID:24707062

Aspects of modelling the tectonics of large volcanoes on the terrestrial planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcgovern, Patrick J.; Solomon, Sean C.

1993-01-01

Analytic solutions for the response of planetary lithospheres to volcanic loads have been used to model faulting and infer elastic plate thicknesses. Predictions of the distribution of faulting around volcanic loads, based on the application of Anderson's criteria for faulting to the results of the models, do not agree well with observations. Such models do not give the stress state and stress history within the edifice. The effects of episodic load growth can also be treated. When these effects are included, models give much better agreement with observations.

Nonequilibrium radiation and chemistry models for aerocapture vehicle flowfields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Leland A.

1990-01-01

The primary tasks during January 1990 to June 1990 have been the development and evaluation of various electron and electron-electronic energy equation models, the continued development of improved nonequilibrium radiation models for molecules and atoms, and the continued development and investigation of precursor models and their effects. In addition, work was initiated to develop a vibrational model for the viscous shock layer (VSL) nonequilibrium chemistry blunt body engineering code. Also, an effort was started associated with the effects of including carbon species, say from an ablator, in the flowfield.

A hierarchical spatial model of avian abundance with application to Cerulean Warblers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sauer, John R.; Knutson, Melinda G.

2004-01-01

Surveys collecting count data are the primary means by which abundance is indexed for birds. These counts are confounded, however, by nuisance effects including observer effects and spatial correlation between counts. Current methods poorly accommodate both observer and spatial effects because modeling these spatially autocorrelated counts within a hierarchical framework is not practical using standard statistical approaches. We propose a Bayesian approach to this problem and provide as an example of its implementation a spatial model of predicted abundance for the Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea) in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition of the upper midwestern United States. We used an overdispersed Poisson regression with fixed and random effects, fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We used 21 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey counts as the response in a loglinear function of explanatory variables describing habitat, spatial relatedness, year effects, and observer effects. The model included a conditional autoregressive term representing potential correlation between adjacent route counts. Categories of explanatory habitat variables in the model included land cover composition and configuration, climate, terrain heterogeneity, and human influence. The inherent hierarchy in the model was from counts occurring, in part, as a function of observers within survey routes within years. We found that the percentage of forested wetlands, an index of wetness potential, and an interaction between mean annual precipitation and deciduous forest patch size best described Cerulean Warbler abundance. Based on a map of relative abundance derived from the posterior parameter estimates, we estimated that only 15% of the species' population occurred on federal land, necessitating active engagement of public landowners and state agencies in the conservation of the breeding habitat for this species. Models of this type can be applied to any data in which the response is counts, such as animal counts, activity (e.g.,nest) counts, or species richness. The most noteworthy practical application of this spatial modeling approach is the ability to map relative species abundance. The functional relationships that we elucidated for the Cerulean Warbler provide a basis for the development of management programs and may serve to focus management and monitoring on areas and habitat variables important to Cerulean Warblers.

Re-evaluating cost effectiveness of universal meningitis vaccination (Bexsero) in England: modelling study.

PubMed

Christensen, Hannah; Trotter, Caroline L; Hickman, Matthew; Edmunds, W John

2014-10-09

To use mathematical and economic models to predict the epidemiological and economic impact of vaccination with Bexsero, designed to protect against group B meningococcal disease, to help inform vaccine policy in the United Kingdom. Modelling study. England. People aged 0-99. Incremental impact of introductory vaccine strategies simulated with a transmission dynamic model of meningococcal infection and vaccination including potential herd effects. Model parameters included recent evidence on the vaccine characteristics, disease burden, costs of care, litigation costs, and loss of quality of life from disease, including impacts on family and network members. The health impact of vaccination was assessed through cases averted and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Cases averted and cost per QALY gained through vaccination; programmes were deemed cost effective against a willingness to pay of £20,000 (€25,420, $32,677) per QALY gained from an NHS and personal and social services perspective. In the short term, case reduction is greatest with routine infant immunisation (26.3% of cases averted in the first five years). This strategy could be cost effective at £3 (€3.8, $4.9) a vaccine dose, given several favourable assumptions and the use of a quality of life adjustment factor. If the vaccine can disrupt meningococcal transmission more cases are prevented in the long term with an infant and adolescent combined programme (51.8% after 30 years), which could be cost effective at £4 a vaccine dose. Assuming the vaccine reduces acquisition by 30%, adolescent vaccination alone is the most favourable strategy economically, but takes more than 20 years to substantially reduce the number of cases. Routine infant vaccination is the most effective short term strategy and could be cost effective with a low vaccine price. Critically, if the vaccine reduces carriage acquisition in teenagers, the combination of infant and adolescent vaccination could result in substantial long term reductions in cases and be cost effective with competitive vaccine pricing. © Christensen et al 2014.

Modeling nasopharyngeal carcinoma in three dimensions

PubMed Central

Siva Sankar, Prabu; Che Mat, Mohd Firdaus; Muniandy, Kalaivani; Xiang, Benedict Lian Shi; Ling, Phang Su; Hoe, Susan Ling Ling; Khoo, Alan Soo-Beng; Mohana-Kumaran, Nethia

2017-01-01

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a type of cancer endemic in Asia, including Malaysia, Southern China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Treatment resistance, particularly in recurring cases, remains a challenge. Thus, studies to develop novel therapeutic agents are important. Potential therapeutic compounds may be effectively examined using two-dimensional (2D) cell culture models, three-dimensional (3D) spheroid models or in vivo animal models. The majority of drug assessments for cancers, including for NPC, are currently performed with 2D cell culture models. This model offers economical and high-throughput screening advantages. However, 2D cell culture models cannot recapitulate the architecture and the microenvironment of a tumor. In vivo models may recapitulate certain architectural and microenvironmental conditions of a tumor, however, these are not feasible for the screening of large numbers of compounds. By contrast, 3D spheroid models may be able to recapitulate a physiological microenvironment not observed in 2D cell culture models, in addition to avoiding the impediments of in vivo animal models. Thus, the 3D spheroid model offers a more representative model for the study of NPC growth, invasion and drug response, which may be cost-effective without forgoing quality. PMID:28454359

The Mediated MIMIC Model for Understanding the Underlying Mechanism of DIF.

PubMed

Cheng, Ying; Shao, Can; Lathrop, Quinn N

2016-02-01

Due to its flexibility, the multiple-indicator, multiple-causes (MIMIC) model has become an increasingly popular method for the detection of differential item functioning (DIF). In this article, we propose the mediated MIMIC model method to uncover the underlying mechanism of DIF. This method extends the usual MIMIC model by including one variable or multiple variables that may completely or partially mediate the DIF effect. If complete mediation effect is found, the DIF effect is fully accounted for. Through our simulation study, we find that the mediated MIMIC model is very successful in detecting the mediation effect that completely or partially accounts for DIF, while keeping the Type I error rate well controlled for both balanced and unbalanced sample sizes between focal and reference groups. Because it is successful in detecting such mediation effects, the mediated MIMIC model may help explain DIF and give guidance in the revision of a DIF item.

The Mediated MIMIC Model for Understanding the Underlying Mechanism of DIF

PubMed Central

Cheng, Ying; Shao, Can; Lathrop, Quinn N.

2015-01-01

Due to its flexibility, the multiple-indicator, multiple-causes (MIMIC) model has become an increasingly popular method for the detection of differential item functioning (DIF). In this article, we propose the mediated MIMIC model method to uncover the underlying mechanism of DIF. This method extends the usual MIMIC model by including one variable or multiple variables that may completely or partially mediate the DIF effect. If complete mediation effect is found, the DIF effect is fully accounted for. Through our simulation study, we find that the mediated MIMIC model is very successful in detecting the mediation effect that completely or partially accounts for DIF, while keeping the Type I error rate well controlled for both balanced and unbalanced sample sizes between focal and reference groups. Because it is successful in detecting such mediation effects, the mediated MIMIC model may help explain DIF and give guidance in the revision of a DIF item.

Modeling uranium(VI) adsorption onto montmorillonite under varying carbonate concentrations: A surface complexation model accounting for the spillover effect on surface potential

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tournassat, C.; Tinnacher, R. M.; Grangeon, S.

The prediction of U(VI) adsorption onto montmorillonite clay is confounded by the complexities of: (1) the montmorillonite structure in terms of adsorption sites on basal and edge surfaces, and the complex interactions between the electrical double layers at these surfaces, and (2) U(VI) solution speciation, which can include cationic, anionic and neutral species. Previous U(VI)-montmorillonite adsorption and modeling studies have typically expanded classical surface complexation modeling approaches, initially developed for simple oxides, to include both cation exchange and surface complexation reactions. However, previous models have not taken into account the unique characteristics of electrostatic surface potentials that occur at montmorillonitemore » edge sites, where the electrostatic surface potential of basal plane cation exchange sites influences the surface potential of neighboring edge sites (‘spillover’ effect).« less

A nonequilibrium model for a moderate pressure hydrogen microwave discharge plasma

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, Carl D.

1993-01-01

This document describes a simple nonequilibrium energy exchange and chemical reaction model to be used in a computational fluid dynamics calculation for a hydrogen plasma excited by microwaves. The model takes into account the exchange between the electrons and excited states of molecular and atomic hydrogen. Specifically, electron-translation, electron-vibration, translation-vibration, ionization, and dissociation are included. The model assumes three temperatures, translational/rotational, vibrational, and electron, each describing a Boltzmann distribution for its respective energy mode. The energy from the microwave source is coupled to the energy equation via a source term that depends on an effective electric field which must be calculated outside the present model. This electric field must be found by coupling the results of the fluid dynamics and kinetics solution with a solution to Maxwell's equations that includes the effects of the plasma permittivity. The solution to Maxwell's equations is not within the scope of this present paper.

Assessing CO2 Mitigation Options Utilizing Detailed Electricity Characteristics and Including Renewable Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bensaida, K.; Alie, Colin; Elkamel, A.; Almansoori, A.

2017-08-01

This paper presents a novel techno-economic optimization model for assessing the effectiveness of CO2 mitigation options for the electricity generation sub-sector that includes renewable energy generation. The optimization problem was formulated as a MINLP model using the GAMS modeling system. The model seeks the minimization of the power generation costs under CO2 emission constraints by dispatching power from low CO2 emission-intensity units. The model considers the detailed operation of the electricity system to effectively assess the performance of GHG mitigation strategies and integrates load balancing, carbon capture and carbon taxes as methods for reducing CO2 emissions. Two case studies are discussed to analyze the benefits and challenges of the CO2 reduction methods in the electricity system. The proposed mitigations options would not only benefit the environment, but they will as well improve the marginal cost of producing energy which represents an advantage for stakeholders.

Modeling uranium(VI) adsorption onto montmorillonite under varying carbonate concentrations: A surface complexation model accounting for the spillover effect on surface potential

DOE PAGES

Tournassat, C.; Tinnacher, R. M.; Grangeon, S.; ...

2017-10-06

The prediction of U(VI) adsorption onto montmorillonite clay is confounded by the complexities of: (1) the montmorillonite structure in terms of adsorption sites on basal and edge surfaces, and the complex interactions between the electrical double layers at these surfaces, and (2) U(VI) solution speciation, which can include cationic, anionic and neutral species. Previous U(VI)-montmorillonite adsorption and modeling studies have typically expanded classical surface complexation modeling approaches, initially developed for simple oxides, to include both cation exchange and surface complexation reactions. However, previous models have not taken into account the unique characteristics of electrostatic surface potentials that occur at montmorillonitemore » edge sites, where the electrostatic surface potential of basal plane cation exchange sites influences the surface potential of neighboring edge sites (‘spillover’ effect).« less

Accounting for spatial effects in land use regression for urban air pollution modeling.

PubMed

Bertazzon, Stefania; Johnson, Markey; Eccles, Kristin; Kaplan, Gilaad G

2015-01-01

In order to accurately assess air pollution risks, health studies require spatially resolved pollution concentrations. Land-use regression (LUR) models estimate ambient concentrations at a fine spatial scale. However, spatial effects such as spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation can reduce the accuracy of LUR estimates by increasing regression errors and uncertainty; and statistical methods for resolving these effects--e.g., spatially autoregressive (SAR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models--may be difficult to apply simultaneously. We used an alternate approach to address spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation in LUR models for nitrogen dioxide. Traditional models were re-specified to include a variable capturing wind speed and direction, and re-fit as GWR models. Mean R(2) values for the resulting GWR-wind models (summer: 0.86, winter: 0.73) showed a 10-20% improvement over traditional LUR models. GWR-wind models effectively addressed both spatial effects and produced meaningful predictive models. These results suggest a useful method for improving spatially explicit models. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Modeling of Turbulence Effects on Liquid Jet Atomization and Breakup

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trinh, Huu P.; Chen, C. P.

2005-01-01

Recent experimental investigations and physical modeling studies have indicated that turbulence behaviors within a liquid jet have considerable effects on the atomization process. This study aims to model the turbulence effect in the atomization process of a cylindrical liquid jet. Two widely used models, the Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability of Reitz (blob model) and the Taylor-Analogy-Breakup (TAB) secondary droplet breakup by O Rourke et al, are further extended to include turbulence effects. In the primary breakup model, the level of the turbulence effect on the liquid breakup depends on the characteristic scales and the initial flow conditions. For the secondary breakup, an additional turbulence force acted on parent drops is modeled and integrated into the TAB governing equation. The drop size formed from this breakup regime is estimated based on the energy balance before and after the breakup occurrence. This paper describes theoretical development of the current models, called "T-blob" and "T-TAB", for primary and secondary breakup respectivety. Several assessment studies are also presented in this paper.

Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Mercadante, M E Z; Lôbo, R B; Baldi, F; Albuquerque, L G

2012-02-01

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

Multi-year global climatic effects of atmospheric dust from large bolide impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Starley L.

1988-01-01

The global climatic effects of dust generated by the impact of a 10 km-diameter bolide was simulated using a one-dimensional (vertical only) globally-averaged climate model by Pollack et al. The goal of the simulation is to examine the regional climate effects, including the possibility of coastal refugia, generated by a global dust cloud in a model having realistic geographic resolution. The climate model assumes the instantaneous appearance of a global stratospheric dust cloud with initial optical depth of 10,000. The time history of optical depth decreases according to the detailed calculations of Pollack et al., reaching an optical depth of unity at day 160, and subsequently decreasing with an e-folding time of 1 year. The simulation is carried out for three years in order to examine the atmospheric effects and recovery over several seasons. The simulation does not include any effects of NOx, CO2, or wildfire smoke injections that may accompany the creation of the dust cloud. The global distribution of surface temperature changes, freezing events, precipitation and soil moisture effects and sea ice increases will be discussed.

Nonlinear propagation of light in Dirac matter.

PubMed

Eliasson, Bengt; Shukla, P K

2011-09-01

The nonlinear interaction between intense laser light and a quantum plasma is modeled by a collective Dirac equation coupled with the Maxwell equations. The model is used to study the nonlinear propagation of relativistically intense laser light in a quantum plasma including the electron spin-1/2 effect. The relativistic effects due to the high-intensity laser light lead, in general, to a downshift of the laser frequency, similar to a classical plasma where the relativistic mass increase leads to self-induced transparency of laser light and other associated effects. The electron spin-1/2 effects lead to a frequency upshift or downshift of the electromagnetic (EM) wave, depending on the spin state of the plasma and the polarization of the EM wave. For laboratory solid density plasmas, the spin-1/2 effects on the propagation of light are small, but they may be significant in superdense plasma in the core of white dwarf stars. We also discuss extensions of the model to include kinetic effects of a distribution of the electrons on the nonlinear propagation of EM waves in a quantum plasma.

Bayesian Covariate Selection in Mixed-Effects Models For Longitudinal Shape Analysis

PubMed Central

Muralidharan, Prasanna; Fishbaugh, James; Kim, Eun Young; Johnson, Hans J.; Paulsen, Jane S.; Gerig, Guido; Fletcher, P. Thomas

2016-01-01

The goal of longitudinal shape analysis is to understand how anatomical shape changes over time, in response to biological processes, including growth, aging, or disease. In many imaging studies, it is also critical to understand how these shape changes are affected by other factors, such as sex, disease diagnosis, IQ, etc. Current approaches to longitudinal shape analysis have focused on modeling age-related shape changes, but have not included the ability to handle covariates. In this paper, we present a novel Bayesian mixed-effects shape model that incorporates simultaneous relationships between longitudinal shape data and multiple predictors or covariates to the model. Moreover, we place an Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) prior on the parameters, that lets us automatically select which covariates are most relevant to the model based on observed data. We evaluate our proposed model and inference procedure on a longitudinal study of Huntington's disease from PREDICT-HD. We first show the utility of the ARD prior for model selection in a univariate modeling of striatal volume, and next we apply the full high-dimensional longitudinal shape model to putamen shapes. PMID:28090246

Atmospheric stability and complex terrain: comparing measurements and CFD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koblitz, T.; Bechmann, A.; Berg, J.; Sogachev, A.; Sørensen, N.; Réthoré, P.-E.

2014-12-01

For wind resource assessment, the wind industry is increasingly relying on Computational Fluid Dynamics models that focus on modeling the airflow in a neutrally stratified surface layer. So far, physical processes that are specific to the atmospheric boundary layer, for example the Coriolis force, buoyancy forces and heat transport, are mostly ignored in state-of-the-art flow solvers. In order to decrease the uncertainty of wind resource assessment, the effect of thermal stratification on the atmospheric boundary layer should be included in such models. The present work focuses on non-neutral atmospheric flow over complex terrain including physical processes like stability and Coriolis force. We examine the influence of these effects on the whole atmospheric boundary layer using the DTU Wind Energy flow solver EllipSys3D. To validate the flow solver, measurements from Benakanahalli hill, a field experiment that took place in India in early 2010, are used. The experiment was specifically designed to address the combined effects of stability and Coriolis force over complex terrain, and provides a dataset to validate flow solvers. Including those effects into EllipSys3D significantly improves the predicted flow field when compared against the measurements.

Modelling of LOCA Tests with the BISON Fuel Performance Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williamson, Richard L; Pastore, Giovanni; Novascone, Stephen Rhead

2016-05-01

BISON is a modern finite-element based, multidimensional nuclear fuel performance code that is under development at Idaho National Laboratory (USA). Recent advances of BISON include the extension of the code to the analysis of LWR fuel rod behaviour during loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). In this work, BISON models for the phenomena relevant to LWR cladding behaviour during LOCAs are described, followed by presentation of code results for the simulation of LOCA tests. Analysed experiments include separate effects tests of cladding ballooning and burst, as well as the Halden IFA-650.2 fuel rod test. Two-dimensional modelling of the experiments is performed, and calculationsmore » are compared to available experimental data. Comparisons include cladding burst pressure and temperature in separate effects tests, as well as the evolution of fuel rod inner pressure during ballooning and time to cladding burst. Furthermore, BISON three-dimensional simulations of separate effects tests are performed, which demonstrate the capability to reproduce the effect of azimuthal temperature variations in the cladding. The work has been carried out in the frame of the collaboration between Idaho National Laboratory and Halden Reactor Project, and the IAEA Coordinated Research Project FUMAC.« less

GAMETES: a fast, direct algorithm for generating pure, strict, epistatic models with random architectures.

PubMed

Urbanowicz, Ryan J; Kiralis, Jeff; Sinnott-Armstrong, Nicholas A; Heberling, Tamra; Fisher, Jonathan M; Moore, Jason H

2012-10-01

Geneticists who look beyond single locus disease associations require additional strategies for the detection of complex multi-locus effects. Epistasis, a multi-locus masking effect, presents a particular challenge, and has been the target of bioinformatic development. Thorough evaluation of new algorithms calls for simulation studies in which known disease models are sought. To date, the best methods for generating simulated multi-locus epistatic models rely on genetic algorithms. However, such methods are computationally expensive, difficult to adapt to multiple objectives, and unlikely to yield models with a precise form of epistasis which we refer to as pure and strict. Purely and strictly epistatic models constitute the worst-case in terms of detecting disease associations, since such associations may only be observed if all n-loci are included in the disease model. This makes them an attractive gold standard for simulation studies considering complex multi-locus effects. We introduce GAMETES, a user-friendly software package and algorithm which generates complex biallelic single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) disease models for simulation studies. GAMETES rapidly and precisely generates random, pure, strict n-locus models with specified genetic constraints. These constraints include heritability, minor allele frequencies of the SNPs, and population prevalence. GAMETES also includes a simple dataset simulation strategy which may be utilized to rapidly generate an archive of simulated datasets for given genetic models. We highlight the utility and limitations of GAMETES with an example simulation study using MDR, an algorithm designed to detect epistasis. GAMETES is a fast, flexible, and precise tool for generating complex n-locus models with random architectures. While GAMETES has a limited ability to generate models with higher heritabilities, it is proficient at generating the lower heritability models typically used in simulation studies evaluating new algorithms. In addition, the GAMETES modeling strategy may be flexibly combined with any dataset simulation strategy. Beyond dataset simulation, GAMETES could be employed to pursue theoretical characterization of genetic models and epistasis.

Land Surface Process and Air Quality Research and Applications at MSFC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale; Khan, Maudood

2007-01-01

This viewgraph presentation provides an overview of land surface process and air quality research at MSFC including atmospheric modeling and ongoing research whose objective is to undertake a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the effects of accurate land surface characterization on atmospheric modeling results, and public health applications. Land use maps as well as 10 meter air temperature, surface wind, PBL mean difference heights, NOx, ozone, and O3+NO2 plots as well as spatial growth model outputs are included. Emissions and general air quality modeling are also discussed.

Symplectic multiparticle tracking model for self-consistent space-charge simulation

DOE PAGES

Qiang, Ji

2017-01-23

Symplectic tracking is important in accelerator beam dynamics simulation. So far, to the best of our knowledge, there is no self-consistent symplectic space-charge tracking model available in the accelerator community. In this paper, we present a two-dimensional and a three-dimensional symplectic multiparticle spectral model for space-charge tracking simulation. This model includes both the effect from external fields and the effect of self-consistent space-charge fields using a split-operator method. Such a model preserves the phase space structure and shows much less numerical emittance growth than the particle-in-cell model in the illustrative examples.

Symplectic multiparticle tracking model for self-consistent space-charge simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qiang, Ji

Symplectic tracking is important in accelerator beam dynamics simulation. So far, to the best of our knowledge, there is no self-consistent symplectic space-charge tracking model available in the accelerator community. In this paper, we present a two-dimensional and a three-dimensional symplectic multiparticle spectral model for space-charge tracking simulation. This model includes both the effect from external fields and the effect of self-consistent space-charge fields using a split-operator method. Such a model preserves the phase space structure and shows much less numerical emittance growth than the particle-in-cell model in the illustrative examples.

Cost-Effectiveness of Procedures for Treatment of Ostium Secundum Atrial Septal Defects Occlusion Comparing Conventional Surgery and Septal Percutaneous Implant

PubMed Central

da Costa, Márcia Gisele Santos; Santos, Marisa da Silva; Sarti, Flávia Mori; Senna, Kátia Marie Simões e.; Tura, Bernardo Rangel; Goulart, Marcelo Correia

2014-01-01

Objectives The study performs a cost-effectiveness analysis of procedures for atrial septal defects occlusion, comparing conventional surgery to septal percutaneous implant. Methods A model of analytical decision was structured with symmetric branches to estimate cost-effectiveness ratio between the procedures. The decision tree model was based on evidences gathered through meta-analysis of literature, and validated by a panel of specialists. The lower number of surgical procedures performed for atrial septal defects occlusion at each branch was considered as the effectiveness outcome. Direct medical costs and probabilities for each event were inserted in the model using data available from Brazilian public sector database system and information extracted from the literature review, using micro-costing technique. Sensitivity analysis included price variations of percutaneous implant. Results The results obtained from the decision model demonstrated that the percutaneous implant was more cost effective in cost-effectiveness analysis at a cost of US$8,936.34 with a reduction in the probability of surgery occurrence in 93% of the cases. Probability of atrial septal communication occlusion and cost of the implant are the determinant factors of cost-effectiveness ratio. Conclusions The proposal of a decision model seeks to fill a void in the academic literature. The decision model proposed includes the outcomes that present major impact in relation to the overall costs of the procedure. The atrial septal defects occlusion using percutaneous implant reduces the physical and psychological distress to the patients in relation to the conventional surgery, which represent intangible costs in the context of economic evaluation. PMID:25302806

Cost-effectiveness of procedures for treatment of ostium secundum atrial septal defects occlusion comparing conventional surgery and septal percutaneous implant.

PubMed

da Costa, Márcia Gisele Santos; Santos, Marisa da Silva; Sarti, Flávia Mori; Simões e Senna, Kátia Marie; Tura, Bernardo Rangel; Correia, Marcelo Goulart; Goulart, Marcelo Correia

2014-01-01

The study performs a cost-effectiveness analysis of procedures for atrial septal defects occlusion, comparing conventional surgery to septal percutaneous implant. A model of analytical decision was structured with symmetric branches to estimate cost-effectiveness ratio between the procedures. The decision tree model was based on evidences gathered through meta-analysis of literature, and validated by a panel of specialists. The lower number of surgical procedures performed for atrial septal defects occlusion at each branch was considered as the effectiveness outcome. Direct medical costs and probabilities for each event were inserted in the model using data available from Brazilian public sector database system and information extracted from the literature review, using micro-costing technique. Sensitivity analysis included price variations of percutaneous implant. The results obtained from the decision model demonstrated that the percutaneous implant was more cost effective in cost-effectiveness analysis at a cost of US$8,936.34 with a reduction in the probability of surgery occurrence in 93% of the cases. Probability of atrial septal communication occlusion and cost of the implant are the determinant factors of cost-effectiveness ratio. The proposal of a decision model seeks to fill a void in the academic literature. The decision model proposed includes the outcomes that present major impact in relation to the overall costs of the procedure. The atrial septal defects occlusion using percutaneous implant reduces the physical and psychological distress to the patients in relation to the conventional surgery, which represent intangible costs in the context of economic evaluation.

The Influence of Social Modeling, Gender, and Empathy on Treatment Side Effects.

PubMed

Faasse, Kate; Parkes, Bryony; Kearney, James; Petrie, Keith J

2018-05-31

Social modeling has the capacity to shape treatment outcomes, including side effects. This study investigated the influence of social modeling of treatment side effects, gender, and participant empathy, on side effects of a placebo treatment. Ninety-six participants (48 females) completed a study purportedly investigating the influence of modafinil (actually placebo) on alertness and fatigue. The participants were randomly seated with a male or female confederate and saw this confederate report experiencing side effects or no side effects. Participant empathy was assessed at baseline. Changes in modeled and general symptoms, and misattribution of symptoms, were assessed during the session and at 24-hr follow-up. During the experimental session, seeing side effect modeling significantly increased modeled symptoms (p = .023, d = 0.56) but not general or misattributed symptoms. Regardless of modeling condition, female participants seated with a female model reported significantly more general symptoms during the session. However, response to social modeling did not differ significantly by model or participant gender. At follow-up, the effect of social modeling of side effects had generalized to other symptoms, resulting in significantly higher rates of modeled symptoms (p = .023, d = 0.48), general symptoms (p = .013, d = 0.49), and misattributed symptoms (p = .022, d = 0.50). The experience of modeled symptoms in response to social modeling was predicted by participants' levels of baseline empathy. Social modeling of symptoms can increase the side effects following treatment, and this effect appears to generalize to a broader range of symptoms and symptom misattribution over time. Higher baseline empathy seems to increase response to social modeling.

An insect-tapeworm model as a proxy for anthelminthic effects in the mammalian host.

PubMed

Woolsey, Ian David; Fredensborg, Brian L; Jensen, Per M; Kapel, Christian M O; Meyling, Nicolai V

2015-07-01

Invertebrate models provide several important advantages over their vertebrate counterparts including fewer legislative stipulations and faster, more cost-effective experimental procedures. Furthermore, various similarities between insect and mammalian systems have been highlighted. To obtain maximum use of invertebrate models in pharmacology, their fidelity as analogues of vertebrate systems requires verification. We utilised a flour beetle (Tenebrio molitor)-tapeworm (Hymenolepis diminuta) model to evaluate the efficacy of known anthelmintic compounds, praziquantel, mebendazole and levamisole against H. diminuta cysticercoid larvae in vitro. Inhibition of cysticercoid activity during the excystation procedure was used as a proxy for worm removal. The effects of the three compounds mirrored their relative efficacy in treatment against adult worms in mammalian systems; however, further study is required to determine the fidelity of this model in relation to dose administered. The model precludes comparison of consecutive daily administration of pharmaceuticals in mammals due to cysticercoids not surviving outside of the host for multiple days. Treatment of beetles in vivo, followed by excystation of cysticercoids postdissection could potentially allow for such comparisons. Further model validation will include analysis of pharmaceutical efficacy in varying H. diminuta isolates and pharmaceutical dilution in solvents other than water. Notwithstanding, our results demonstrate that this model holds promise as a method to efficiently identify promising new cestocidal candidates.

A general framework for the use of logistic regression models in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Simmonds, Mark C; Higgins, Julian Pt

2016-12-01

Where individual participant data are available for every randomised trial in a meta-analysis of dichotomous event outcomes, "one-stage" random-effects logistic regression models have been proposed as a way to analyse these data. Such models can also be used even when individual participant data are not available and we have only summary contingency table data. One benefit of this one-stage regression model over conventional meta-analysis methods is that it maximises the correct binomial likelihood for the data and so does not require the common assumption that effect estimates are normally distributed. A second benefit of using this model is that it may be applied, with only minor modification, in a range of meta-analytic scenarios, including meta-regression, network meta-analyses and meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy. This single model can potentially replace the variety of often complex methods used in these areas. This paper considers, with a range of meta-analysis examples, how random-effects logistic regression models may be used in a number of different types of meta-analyses. This one-stage approach is compared with widely used meta-analysis methods including Bayesian network meta-analysis and the bivariate and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) models for meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy. © The Author(s) 2014.

Plant community dynamics and restoring Louisiana's wetland ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duke-Sylvester, S. M.; Visser, J.

2017-12-01

We have developed a computational model of plant community dynamics. Our model is designed to evaluate the effects of management actions on the structure and health of Louisiana's coastal wetland plant communities. A number of projects have been initiated or proposed to preserve and restore this ecosystem while still allowing the area to support Louisiana's economy. These projects involve both modification of the flow of freshwater as well as restoring natural wetlands. Evaluating the long term effects of these projects is complex and involves numerous moving pieces operating over an extensive and diverse landscape. The situation is further complicated by in sea level rise and climate change associated with global warming. The vegetation model is part of a larger set of linked models that include hydrology and soil morphology. Using hydrological conditions projected by the linked hydrology models, we are able to evaluate the effects of anthropogenic and climatic changes on Louisiana's wetland plant communities. Unique features of our model include replacing the division of wetlands into coarse groups defined by salinity conditions with species level responses to environmental conditions and extending the spatial scale of modeling to encompass the entirety of Louisiana's Gulf coast. Model results showing the potential impact of alternative management and climate change scenarios are presented.

Identification and stochastic control of helicopter dynamic modes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molusis, J. A.; Bar-Shalom, Y.

1983-01-01

A general treatment of parameter identification and stochastic control for use on helicopter dynamic systems is presented. Rotor dynamic models, including specific applications to rotor blade flapping and the helicopter ground resonance problem are emphasized. Dynamic systems which are governed by periodic coefficients as well as constant coefficient models are addressed. The dynamic systems are modeled by linear state variable equations which are used in the identification and stochastic control formulation. The pure identification problem as well as the stochastic control problem which includes combined identification and control for dynamic systems is addressed. The stochastic control problem includes the effect of parameter uncertainty on the solution and the concept of learning and how this is affected by the control's duel effect. The identification formulation requires algorithms suitable for on line use and thus recursive identification algorithms are considered. The applications presented use the recursive extended kalman filter for parameter identification which has excellent convergence for systems without process noise.

Functional Additive Mixed Models

PubMed Central

Scheipl, Fabian; Staicu, Ana-Maria; Greven, Sonja

2014-01-01

We propose an extensive framework for additive regression models for correlated functional responses, allowing for multiple partially nested or crossed functional random effects with flexible correlation structures for, e.g., spatial, temporal, or longitudinal functional data. Additionally, our framework includes linear and nonlinear effects of functional and scalar covariates that may vary smoothly over the index of the functional response. It accommodates densely or sparsely observed functional responses and predictors which may be observed with additional error and includes both spline-based and functional principal component-based terms. Estimation and inference in this framework is based on standard additive mixed models, allowing us to take advantage of established methods and robust, flexible algorithms. We provide easy-to-use open source software in the pffr() function for the R-package refund. Simulations show that the proposed method recovers relevant effects reliably, handles small sample sizes well and also scales to larger data sets. Applications with spatially and longitudinally observed functional data demonstrate the flexibility in modeling and interpretability of results of our approach. PMID:26347592

Functional Additive Mixed Models.

PubMed

Scheipl, Fabian; Staicu, Ana-Maria; Greven, Sonja

2015-04-01

We propose an extensive framework for additive regression models for correlated functional responses, allowing for multiple partially nested or crossed functional random effects with flexible correlation structures for, e.g., spatial, temporal, or longitudinal functional data. Additionally, our framework includes linear and nonlinear effects of functional and scalar covariates that may vary smoothly over the index of the functional response. It accommodates densely or sparsely observed functional responses and predictors which may be observed with additional error and includes both spline-based and functional principal component-based terms. Estimation and inference in this framework is based on standard additive mixed models, allowing us to take advantage of established methods and robust, flexible algorithms. We provide easy-to-use open source software in the pffr() function for the R-package refund. Simulations show that the proposed method recovers relevant effects reliably, handles small sample sizes well and also scales to larger data sets. Applications with spatially and longitudinally observed functional data demonstrate the flexibility in modeling and interpretability of results of our approach.

Shape Transformations of Epithelial Shells

PubMed Central

Misra, Mahim; Audoly, Basile; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.; Shvartsman, Stanislav Y.

2016-01-01

Regulated deformations of epithelial sheets are frequently foreshadowed by patterning of their mechanical properties. The connection between patterns of cell properties and the emerging tissue deformations is studied in multiple experimental systems, but the general principles remain poorly understood. For instance, it is in general unclear what determines the direction in which the patterned sheet is going to bend and whether the resulting shape transformation will be discontinuous or smooth. Here these questions are explored computationally, using vertex models of epithelial shells assembled from prismlike cells. In response to rings and patches of apical cell contractility, model epithelia smoothly deform into invaginated or evaginated shapes similar to those observed in embryos and tissue organoids. Most of the observed effects can be captured by a simpler model with polygonal cells, modified to include the effects of the apicobasal polarity and natural curvature of epithelia. Our models can be readily extended to include the effects of multiple constraints and used to describe a wide range of morphogenetic processes. PMID:27074691

Evaluation of Precipitation Indices for Global Crop Modeling and Definition of Drought Response Function to Yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, D.

2017-12-01

Climate change initiates abnormal meteorological disasters. Drought causes climate instability, thus producing poor harvests because of low rates of photosynthesis and sterile pollination. This research evaluates drought indices regarding precipitation and includes this data in global geophysical crop models that concern with evaporation, stomata opening, advection-effects from sea surface temperature anomalies, photosynthesis, carbon partitioning, crop yields, and crop production. Standard precipitation index (SPI) is a useful tool because of related variable not used in the stomata model. However, SPI is not an adequate tool for drought in irrigated fields. Contrary to expectations, the global comparisons of spatial characteristics between stomata opening/evapotranspiration and SPI for monitoring continental crop extremes produced serious defects and obvious differences between evapotranspiration and the small stomata-opening phenomena. The reason for this is that SPI does not include surface air temperature in its analysis. The Penman equation (Epen) describes potential evaporation better than SPI for recent hot droughts caused by climate change. However, the distribution of precipitation is a necessary condition for crop monitoring because it affirms the trend of the dry results computed by crop models. Consequently, the author uses global precipitation data observed by microwave passive sensors on TRMM and GCOM-W satellites. This remote sensing data conveniently supplies spatial distributions of global and seasonal precipitation. The author has designed a model to measure the effects of drought on crop yield and the degree of stomata closure related to the photosynthesis rate. To determine yield effects, the drought injury function is defined by integrating stomata closure during the two seasons from flowering to pollination. The stomata, defined by ratio between Epen and Eac, reflect the effects of drought and irrigation. Stomata-closure model includes the factors of soil moisture or irrigation effects inside the actual evapotranspiration computed using a complimentary model. The evaluation of precipitation indices provides necessary but not sufficient conditions for drought. They supply reference information for the trend/accuracy of an injury response function.

Prevention of HPV-related cancers in Norway: cost-effectiveness of expanding the HPV vaccination program to include pre-adolescent boys.

PubMed

Burger, Emily A; Sy, Stephen; Nygård, Mari; Kristiansen, Ivar S; Kim, Jane J

2014-01-01

Increasingly, countries have introduced female vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), causally linked to several cancers and genital warts, but few have recommended vaccination of boys. Declining vaccine prices and strong evidence of vaccine impact on reducing HPV-related conditions in both women and men prompt countries to reevaluate whether HPV vaccination of boys is warranted. A previously-published dynamic model of HPV transmission was empirically calibrated to Norway. Reductions in the incidence of HPV, including both direct and indirect benefits, were applied to a natural history model of cervical cancer, and to incidence-based models for other non-cervical HPV-related diseases. We calculated the health outcomes and costs of the different HPV-related conditions under a gender-neutral vaccination program compared to a female-only program. Vaccine price had a decisive impact on results. For example, assuming 71% coverage, high vaccine efficacy and a reasonable vaccine tender price of $75 per dose, we found vaccinating both girls and boys fell below a commonly cited cost-effectiveness threshold in Norway ($83,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained) when including vaccine benefit for all HPV-related diseases. However, at the current market price, including boys would not be considered 'good value for money.' For settings with a lower cost-effectiveness threshold ($30,000/QALY), it would not be considered cost-effective to expand the current program to include boys, unless the vaccine price was less than $36/dose. Increasing vaccination coverage to 90% among girls was more effective and less costly than the benefits achieved by vaccinating both genders with 71% coverage. At the anticipated tender price, expanding the HPV vaccination program to boys may be cost-effective and may warrant a change in the current female-only vaccination policy in Norway. However, increasing coverage in girls is uniformly more effective and cost-effective than expanding vaccination coverage to boys and should be considered a priority.

Evolution of a beam dynamics model for the transport line in a proton therapy facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzoglio, V.; Adelmann, A.; Baumgarten, C.; Frey, M.; Gerbershagen, A.; Meer, D.; Schippers, J. M.

2017-12-01

During the conceptual design of an accelerator or beamline, first-order beam dynamics models are essential for studying beam properties. However, they can only produce approximate results. During commissioning, these approximate results are compared to measurements, which will rarely coincide if the model does not include the relevant physics. It is therefore essential that this linear model is extended to include higher-order effects. In this paper, the effects of particle-matter interaction have been included in the model of the transport lines in the proton therapy facility at the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI) in Switzerland. The first-order models of these beamlines provide an approximated estimation of beam size, energy loss and transmission. To improve the performance of the facility, a more precise model was required and has been developed with opal (Object Oriented Parallel Accelerator Library), a multiparticle open source beam dynamics code. In opal, the Monte Carlo simulations of Coulomb scattering and energy loss are performed seamless with the particle tracking. Beside the linear optics, the influence of the passive elements (e.g., degrader, collimators, scattering foils, and air gaps) on the beam emittance and energy spread can be analyzed in the new model. This allows for a significantly improved precision in the prediction of beam transmission and beam properties. The accuracy of the opal model has been confirmed by numerous measurements.

Nearshore Current Model Workshop Summary.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-09-01

dissipation , and wave-current interaction. b. Incorporation into models of wave-breaking. c. Parameterization of turbulence in models. d. Incorporation...into models of surf zone energy dissipation . e. Methods to specify waves and currents on the boundaries of the grid. f. Incorporation into models of...also recommended. Improvements should include nonlinear and irregular wave effects and improved models of wave-breaking and wave energy dissipation in

Modeling the effects of ozone on soybean growth and yield.

PubMed

Kobayashi, K; Miller, J E; Flagler, R B; Heck, W W

1990-01-01

A simple mechanistic model was developed based on an existing growth model in order to address the mechanisms of the effects of ozone on growth and yield of soybean [Glycine max. (L.) Merr. 'Davis'] and interacting effects of other environmental stresses. The model simulates daily growth of soybean plants using environmental data including shortwave radiation, temperature, precipitation, irrigation and ozone concentration. Leaf growth, dry matter accumulation, water budget, nitrogen input and seed growth linked to senescence and abscission of leaves are described in the model. The effects of ozone are modeled as reduced photosynthate production and accelerated senescence. The model was applied to the open-top chamber experiments in which soybean plants were exposed to ozone under two levels of soil moisture regimes. After calibrating the model to the growth data and seed yield, goodness-of-fit of the model was tested. The model fitted well for top dry weight in the vegetative growth phase and also at maturity. The effect of ozone on seen yield was also described satisfactorily by the model. The simulation showed apparent interaction between the effect of ozone and soil moisture stress on the seed yield. The model revealed that further work is needed concerning the effect of ozone on the senescence process and the consequences of alteration of canopy microclimate by the open-top chambers.

Assessing Spurious Interaction Effects in Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harring, Jeffrey R.; Weiss, Brandi A.; Li, Ming

2015-01-01

Several studies have stressed the importance of simultaneously estimating interaction and quadratic effects in multiple regression analyses, even if theory only suggests an interaction effect should be present. Specifically, past studies suggested that failing to simultaneously include quadratic effects when testing for interaction effects could…

Nursing theory and concept development: a theoretical model of clinical nurses' intentions to stay in their current positions.

PubMed

Cowden, Tracy L; Cummings, Greta G

2012-07-01

We describe a theoretical model of staff nurses' intentions to stay in their current positions. The global nursing shortage and high nursing turnover rate demand evidence-based retention strategies. Inconsistent study outcomes indicate a need for testable theoretical models of intent to stay that build on previously published models, are reflective of current empirical research and identify causal relationships between model concepts. Two systematic reviews of electronic databases of English language published articles between 1985-2011. This complex, testable model expands on previous models and includes nurses' affective and cognitive responses to work and their effects on nurses' intent to stay. The concepts of desire to stay, job satisfaction, joy at work, and moral distress are included in the model to capture the emotional response of nurses to their work environments. The influence of leadership is integrated within the model. A causal understanding of clinical nurses' intent to stay and the effects of leadership on the development of that intention will facilitate the development of effective retention strategies internationally. Testing theoretical models is necessary to confirm previous research outcomes and to identify plausible sequences of the development of behavioral intentions. Increased understanding of the causal influences on nurses' intent to stay should lead to strategies that may result in higher retention rates and numbers of nurses willing to work in the health sector. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Generalizing the correlated chromophore domain model of reversible photodegradation to include the effects of an applied electric field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Benjamin; Kuzyk, Mark G.

2014-03-01

All observations of photodegradation and self-healing follow the predictions of the correlated chromophore domain model [Ramini et al., Polym. Chem. 4, 4948 (2013), 10.1039/c3py00263b]. In the present work, we generalize the domain model to describe the effects of an electric field by including induced dipole interactions between molecules in a domain by means of a self-consistent field approach. This electric field correction is added to the statistical mechanical model to calculate the distribution of domains that are central to healing. Also included in the model are the dynamics due to the formation of an irreversibly damaged species, which we propose involves damage to the polymer mediated through energy transfer from a dopant molecule after absorbing a photon. As in previous studies, the model with one-dimensional domains best explains all experimental data of the population as a function of time, temperature, intensity, concentration, and now applied electric field. Though the precise nature of a domain is yet to be determined, the fact that only one-dimensional domain models are consistent with observations suggests that they might be made of correlated dye molecules along polymer chains. Furthermore, the voltage-dependent measurements suggest that the largest polarizability axis of the molecules are oriented perpendicular to the chain.

Importance of Ambipolar Electric Field in the Ion Loss from Mars- Results from a Multi-fluid MHD Model with the Electron Pressure Equation Included

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Y.; Dong, C.; van der Holst, B.; Nagy, A. F.; Bougher, S. W.; Toth, G.; Cravens, T.; Yelle, R. V.; Jakosky, B. M.

2017-12-01

The multi-fluid (MF) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of Mars is further improved by solving an additional electron pressure equation. Through the electron pressure equation, the electron temperature is calculated based on the effects from various electrons related heating and cooling processes (e.g. photo-electron heating, electron-neutral collision and electron-ion collision), and thus the improved model is able to calculate the electron temperature and the electron pressure force self-consistently. Electron thermal conductivity is also considered in the calculation. Model results of a normal case with electron pressure equation included (MFPe) are compared in detail to an identical case using the regular MF model to identify the effect of the improved physics. We found that when the electron pressure equation is included, the general interaction patterns are similar to that of the case with no electron pressure equation. The model with electron pressure equation predicts that electron temperature is much larger than the ion temperature in the ionosphere, consistent with both Viking and MAVEN observations. The inclusion of electron pressure equation significantly increases the total escape fluxes predicted by the model, indicating the importance of the ambipolar electric field(electron pressure gradient) in driving the ion loss from Mars.

Comprehensive modeling and control of flexible flapping wing micro air vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogar, Stephen Michael

Flapping wing micro air vehicles hold significant promise due to the potential for improved aerodynamic efficiency, enhanced maneuverability and hover capability compared to fixed and rotary configurations. However, significant technical challenges exist to due the lightweight, highly integrated nature of the vehicle and coupling between the actuators, flexible wings and control system. Experimental and high fidelity analysis has demonstrated that aeroelastic effects can change the effective kinematics of the wing, reducing vehicle stability. However, many control studies for flapping wing vehicles do not consider these effects, and instead validate the control strategy with simple assumptions, including rigid wings, quasi-steady aerodynamics and no consideration of actuator dynamics. A control evaluation model that includes aeroelastic effects and actuator dynamics is developed. The structural model accounts for geometrically nonlinear behavior using an implicit condensation technique and the aerodynamic loads are found using a time accurate approach that includes quasi-steady, rotational, added mass and unsteady effects. Empirically based parameters in the model are fit using data obtained from a higher fidelity solver. The aeroelastic model and its ingredients are compared to experiments and computations using models of higher fidelity, and indicate reasonable agreement. The developed control evaluation model is implemented in a previously published, baseline controller that maintains stability using an asymmetric wingbeat, known as split-cycle, along with changing the flapping frequency and wing bias. The model-based controller determines the control inputs using a cycle-averaged, linear control design model, which assumes a rigid wing and no actuator dynamics. The introduction of unaccounted for dynamics significantly degrades the ability of the controller to track a reference trajectory, and in some cases destabilizes the vehicle. This demonstrates the importance of considering coupled aeroelastic and actuator dynamics in closed-loop control of flapping wings. A controller is developed that decouples the normal form of the vehicle dynamics, which accounts for coupling of the forces and moments acting on the vehicle and enables enhanced tuning capabilities. This controller, using the same control design model as the baseline controller, stabilizes the system despite the uncertainty between the control design and evaluation models. The controller is able to stabilize cases with significant wing flexibility and limited actuator capabilities, despite a reduction in control effectiveness. Additionally, to achieve a minimally actuated vehicle, the wing bias mechanism is removed. Using the same control design methodology, increased performance is observed compared to the baseline controller. However, due to the dependence on the split-cycle mechanism to generate a pitching moment instead of wing bias, the controller is more susceptible to instability from wing flexibility and limited actuator capacity. This work highlights the importance of coupled dynamics in the design and control of flapping wing micro air vehicles. Future enhancements to this work should focus on the reduced order structural and aerodynamics models. Applications include using the developed dynamics model to evaluate other kinematics and control schemes, ultimately enabling improved vehicle and control design.

Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current.

PubMed

Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A; Polovina, Jeffrey J; Dunne, John P; Blanchard, Julia L

2013-03-01

Output from an earth system model is paired with a size-based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupled climate model with a biogeochemical model including major nutrients, three phytoplankton functional groups, and zooplankton grazing. The size-based food web model includes linkages between two size-structured pelagic communities: primary producers and consumers. Our investigation focuses on seven sites in the North Pacific, each highlighting a specific aspect of projected climate change, and includes top-down ecosystem depletion through fishing. We project declines in large fish abundance ranging from 0 to 75.8% in the central North Pacific and increases of up to 43.0% in the California Current (CC) region over the 21st century in response to change in phytoplankton size structure and direct physiological effects. We find that fish abundance is especially sensitive to projected changes in large phytoplankton density and our model projects changes in the abundance of large fish being of the same order of magnitude as changes in the abundance of large phytoplankton. Thus, studies that address only climate-induced impacts to primary production without including changes to phytoplankton size structure may not adequately project ecosystem responses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Hybrid Particle-Element Simulation of Impact on Composite Orbital Debris Shields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fahrenthold, Eric P.

2004-01-01

This report describes the development of new numerical methods and new constitutive models for the simulation of hypervelocity impact effects on spacecraft. The research has included parallel implementation of the numerical methods and material models developed under the project. Validation work has included both one dimensional simulations, for comparison with exact solutions, and three dimensional simulations of published hypervelocity impact experiments. The validated formulations have been applied to simulate impact effects in a velocity and kinetic energy regime outside the capabilities of current experimental methods. The research results presented here allow for the expanded use of numerical simulation, as a complement to experimental work, in future design of spacecraft for hypervelocity impact effects.

Polarization effects on hard target calibration of lidar systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kavaya, Michael J.

1987-01-01

The theory of hard target calibration of lidar backscatter data, including laboratory measurements of the pertinent target reflectance parameters, is extended to include the effects of polarization of the transmitted and received laser radiation. The bidirectional reflectance-distribution function model of reflectance is expanded to a 4 x 4 matrix allowing Mueller matrix and Stokes vector calculus to be employed. Target reflectance parameters for calibration of lidar backscatter data are derived for various lidar system polarization configurations from integrating sphere and monostatic reflectometer measurements. It is found that correct modeling of polarization effects is mandatory for accurate calibration of hard target reflectance parameters and, therefore, for accurate calibration of lidar backscatter data.

Characterization of potential endocrine-related health effects at low-dose levels of exposure to PCBs.

PubMed Central

Brouwer, A; Longnecker, M P; Birnbaum, L S; Cogliano, J; Kostyniak, P; Moore, J; Schantz, S; Winneke, G

1999-01-01

This article addresses issues related to the characterization of endocrine-related health effects resulting from low-level exposures to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). It is not intended to be a comprehensive review of the literature but reflects workshop discussions. "The Characterizing the Effects of Endocrine Disruptors on Human Health at Environmental Exposure Levels," workshop provided a forum to discuss the methods and data needed to improve risk assessments of endocrine disruptors. This article contains an overview of endocrine-related (estrogen and thyroid system) interactions and other low-dose effects of PCBs. The data set on endocrine effects includes results obtained from mechanistic methods/ and models (receptor based, metabolism based, and transport protein based), as well as from (italic)in vivo(/italic) models, including studies with experimental animals and wildlife species. Other low-dose effects induced by PCBs, such as neurodevelopmental and reproductive effects and endocrine-sensitive tumors, have been evaluated with respect to a possible causative linkage with PCB-induced alterations in endocrine systems. In addition, studies of low-dose exposure and effects in human populations are presented and critically evaluated. A list of conclusions and recommendations is included. PMID:10421775

Nonnative plant response to silvicultural treatments: A model based on disturbance, propagule pressure, and competitive abilities

Treesearch

Steve Sutherland; Cara R. Nelson

2010-01-01

Invasion by nonnative plants can result in substantial adverse effects on the functions of native forest ecosystems, including nutrient cycling and fire regimes. Thus, forest managers need to be aware of the potential impacts of management activities, including silvicultural treatments, on nonnative vegetation. To aid in that effort, we created a conceptual model of...

Vibration sensing in flexible structures using a distributed-effect modal domain optical fiber sensor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichard, Karl M.; Lindner, Douglas K.; Claus, Richard O.

1991-01-01

Modal domain optical fiber sensors have recently been employed in the implementation of system identification algorithms and the closed-loop control of vibrations in flexible structures. The mathematical model of the modal domain optical fiber sensor used in these applications, however, only accounted for the effects of strain in the direction of the fiber's longitudinal axis. In this paper, we extend this model to include the effects of arbitrary stress. Using this sensor model, we characterize the sensor's sensitivity and dynamic range.

Effective Potentials for Folding Proteins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Nan-Yow; Su, Zheng-Yao; Mou, Chung-Yu

2006-02-01

A coarse-grained off-lattice model that is not biased in any way to the native state is proposed to fold proteins. To predict the native structure in a reasonable time, the model has included the essential effects of water in an effective potential. Two new ingredients, the dipole-dipole interaction and the local hydrophobic interaction, are introduced and are shown to be as crucial as the hydrogen bonding. The model allows successful folding of the wild-type sequence of protein G and may have provided important hints to the study of protein folding.

The development and implementation of a teacher education model in environmental science education for Indian Certificate of Secondary Education (ICSE) schools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, Anuradha

This research study is concerned with the teaching of Environmental Science in the ninth and tenth grades of ICSE schools in Mumbai, India and the development and implementation of a new teacher education model. The instructional strategies practiced by the teachers were investigated using a questionnaire, semi-structured interview schedule and classroom observation. Based on these data, a new model of teacher education was developed with the help of a small cohort of teachers. The rationale for the model was that it should be a non-prescriptive framework that provided a coherently organized, concise guide for environmental education teachers that incorporated modern perspectives on content knowledge, effective pedagogical practices including constructivist approaches and active learning, and a set of guidelines for effectively integrating pedagogy with science content knowledge. The model was in the form of a two-way matrix, with the columns providing the pedagogy and the rows indicating the content knowledge. The intersections of the columns and rows to form individual cells of the matrix yielded a synthesis of pedagogical content knowledge (PCK). The model was discussed with the participating teachers, who prepared revised lesson plans using the model and delivered the lessons, which were observed by the researcher. On using the model, the teaching became more student-centered, as the teachers strove to include constructive and inquiry-based approaches. The use of technology enhanced the effectiveness of the lessons and teachers evaluated the students on all three domains of learning (i.e., affective, cognitive, and psychomotor). Most teachers agreed that it was possible to use the model to plan their lesson and implement it in the classroom; however, they needed to put in more time and effort to get used to a change in their teaching methodology. There is no doubt that teacher professional development is a long process and change does not occur immediately. This model is a transitional one and future development of the model may include more emphasis on further refinements in an approximation toward a thoroughgoing constructivist classroom practice, including a more transactional approach than used here.

Higher Order Modulation Intersymbol Interference Caused by Traveling-wave Tube Amplifiers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kory, Carol L.; Andro, Monty; Williams, W. D. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

For the first time, a time-dependent, physics-based computational model has been used to provide a direct description of the effects of the traveling wave tube amplifier (TWTA) on modulated digital signals. The TWT model comprehensively takes into account the effects of frequency dependent AM/AM and AM/PM conversion; gain and phase ripple; drive-induced oscillations; harmonic generation; intermodulation products; and backward waves, Thus, signal integrity can be investigated in the presence of these sources of potential distortion as a function of the physical geometry and operating characteristics of the high power amplifier and the operational digital signal. This method promises superior predictive fidelity compared to methods using TWT models based on swept-amplitude and/or swept-frequency data. First, the TWT model using the three dimensional (3D) electromagnetic code MAFIA is presented. Then, this comprehensive model is used to investigate approximations made in conventional TWT black-box models used in communication system level simulations, To quantitatively demonstrate the effects these approximations have on digital signal performance predictions, including intersymbol interference (ISI), the MAFIA results are compared to the system level analysis tool, Signal Processing, Workstation (SPW), using high order modulation schemes including 16 and 64-QAM.

A latent modeling approach to genotype-phenotype relationships: maternal problem behavior clusters, prenatal smoking, and MAOA genotype.

PubMed

McGrath, L M; Mustanski, B; Metzger, A; Pine, D S; Kistner-Griffin, E; Cook, E; Wakschlag, L S

2012-08-01

This study illustrates the application of a latent modeling approach to genotype-phenotype relationships and gene × environment interactions, using a novel, multidimensional model of adult female problem behavior, including maternal prenatal smoking. The gene of interest is the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) gene which has been well studied in relation to antisocial behavior. Participants were adult women (N = 192) who were sampled from a prospective pregnancy cohort of non-Hispanic, white individuals recruited from a neighborhood health clinic. Structural equation modeling was used to model a female problem behavior phenotype, which included conduct problems, substance use, impulsive-sensation seeking, interpersonal aggression, and prenatal smoking. All of the female problem behavior dimensions clustered together strongly, with the exception of prenatal smoking. A main effect of MAOA genotype and a MAOA × physical maltreatment interaction were detected with the Conduct Problems factor. Our phenotypic model showed that prenatal smoking is not simply a marker of other maternal problem behaviors. The risk variant in the MAOA main effect and interaction analyses was the high activity MAOA genotype, which is discrepant from consensus findings in male samples. This result contributes to an emerging literature on sex-specific interaction effects for MAOA.

Evaporating Spray in Supersonic Streams Including Turbulence Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balasubramanyam, M. S.; Chen, C. P.

2006-01-01

Evaporating spray plays an important role in spray combustion processes. This paper describes the development of a new finite-conductivity evaporation model, based on the two-temperature film theory, for two-phase numerical simulation using Eulerian-Lagrangian method. The model is a natural extension of the T-blob/T-TAB atomization/spray model which supplies the turbulence characteristics for estimating effective thermal diffusivity within the droplet phase. Both one-way and two-way coupled calculations were performed to investigate the performance of this model. Validation results indicate the superiority of the finite-conductivity model in low speed parallel flow evaporating sprays. High speed cross flow spray results indicate the effectiveness of the T-blob/T-TAB model and point to the needed improvements in high speed evaporating spray modeling.

Full Capability Formation Flight Control

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-02-01

and ≤ 5 feet during thunderstorm level turbulence. Next, the 4 vortex wake of the lead aircraft will be modeled and the controller will be...be used to simulate the random effects of wind turbulence on the system. This model allows for the input of wind turbulence at three different ...Formation Vortex Interactions The other significant disturbance to be included in the two aircraft dynamic model is the effect of lead’s vortex wake on

Examining the Moderating Effect of Individual-Level Cultural Values on Users' Acceptance of E-Learning in Developing Countries: A Structural Equation Modeling of an Extended Technology Acceptance Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tarhini, Ali; Hone, Kate; Liu, Xiaohui; Tarhini, Takwa

2017-01-01

In this study, we examine the effects of individual-level culture on the adoption and acceptance of e-learning tools by students in Lebanon using a theoretical framework based on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). To overcome possible limitations of using TAM in developing countries, we extend TAM to include "subjective norms" (SN)…

The field-space metric in spiral inflation and related models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erlich, Joshua; Olsen, Jackson; Wang, Zhen

2016-09-22

Multi-field inflation models include a variety of scenarios for how inflation proceeds and ends. Models with the same potential but different kinetic terms are common in the literature. We compare spiral inflation and Dante’s inferno-type models, which differ only in their field-space metric. We justify a single-field effective description in these models and relate the single-field description to a mass-matrix formalism. We note the effects of the nontrivial field-space metric on inflationary observables, and consequently on the viability of these models. We also note a duality between spiral inflation and Dante’s inferno models with different potentials.

Microscopic simulation model calibration and validation handbook.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

Microscopic traffic simulation models are widely used in the transportation engineering field. Because of their cost-effectiveness, risk-free nature, and high-speed benefits, areas of use include transportation system design, traffic operations, and ...

Cross-validation analysis for genetic evaluation models for ranking in endurance horses.

PubMed

García-Ballesteros, S; Varona, L; Valera, M; Gutiérrez, J P; Cervantes, I

2018-01-01

Ranking trait was used as a selection criterion for competition horses to estimate racing performance. In the literature the most common approaches to estimate breeding values are the linear or threshold statistical models. However, recent studies have shown that a Thurstonian approach was able to fix the race effect (competitive level of the horses that participate in the same race), thus suggesting a better prediction accuracy of breeding values for ranking trait. The aim of this study was to compare the predictability of linear, threshold and Thurstonian approaches for genetic evaluation of ranking in endurance horses. For this purpose, eight genetic models were used for each approach with different combinations of random effects: rider, rider-horse interaction and environmental permanent effect. All genetic models included gender, age and race as systematic effects. The database that was used contained 4065 ranking records from 966 horses and that for the pedigree contained 8733 animals (47% Arabian horses), with an estimated heritability around 0.10 for the ranking trait. The prediction ability of the models for racing performance was evaluated using a cross-validation approach. The average correlation between real and predicted performances across genetic models was around 0.25 for threshold, 0.58 for linear and 0.60 for Thurstonian approaches. Although no significant differences were found between models within approaches, the best genetic model included: the rider and rider-horse random effects for threshold, only rider and environmental permanent effects for linear approach and all random effects for Thurstonian approach. The absolute correlations of predicted breeding values among models were higher between threshold and Thurstonian: 0.90, 0.91 and 0.88 for all animals, top 20% and top 5% best animals. For rank correlations these figures were 0.85, 0.84 and 0.86. The lower values were those between linear and threshold approaches (0.65, 0.62 and 0.51). In conclusion, the Thurstonian approach is recommended for the routine genetic evaluations for ranking in endurance horses.

Local and Long-Distance Effects of Land Use Change on Nutrient Levels in Streams and Rivers of the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R. A.; Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.

2003-12-01

Determining the effects of land use change (e.g. urbanization, deforestation) on water quality at large spatial scales has been difficult because water quality measurements in large rivers with heterogeneous basins show the integrated effects of multiple factors. Moreover, the observed effects of land use changes on water quality in small homogeneous stream basins may not be indicative of downstream effects (including effects on such ecologically relevant characteristics as nutrient levels and elemental ratios) because of loss processes occurring during downstream transport in river channels. In this study we used the USGS SPARROW (Spatially-Referenced Regression on Watersheds) models of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in streams and rivers of the conterminous US to examine the effects of various aspects of land use change on nutrient concentrations and flux from the pre-development era to the present. The models were calibrated with data from 370 long-term monitoring stations representing a wide range of basin sizes, land use/cover classes, climates, and physiographies. The non-linear formulation for each model includes 20+ statistically estimated parameters relating to land use/cover characteristics and other environmental variables such as temperature, soil conditions, hill slope, and the hydraulic characteristics of 2200 large lakes and reservoirs. Model predictions are available for 62,000 river/stream channel nodes. Model predictions of pre-development water quality compare favorably with nutrient data from 63 undeveloped (reference) sites. Error statistics are available for predictions at all nodes. Model simulations were chosen to compare the effects of selected aspects of land use change on nutrient levels at large and small basin scales, lacustrine and coastal receiving waters, and among the major US geographic regions.

A mathematical model for jet engine combustor pollutant emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boccio, J. L.; Weilerstein, G.; Edelman, R. B.

1973-01-01

Mathematical modeling for the description of the origin and disposition of combustion-generated pollutants in gas turbines is presented. A unified model in modular form is proposed which includes kinetics, recirculation, turbulent mixing, multiphase flow effects, swirl and secondary air injection. Subelements of the overall model were applied to data relevant to laboratory reactors and practical combustor configurations. Comparisons between the theory and available data show excellent agreement for basic CO/H2/Air chemical systems. For hydrocarbons the trends are predicted well including higher-than-equilibrium NO levels within the fuel rich regime. Although the need for improved accuracy in fuel rich combustion is indicated, comparisons with actual jet engine data in terms of the effect of combustor-inlet temperature is excellent. In addition, excellent agreement with data is obtained regarding reduced NO emissions with water droplet and steam injection.

HIV-1 and HCV viral load cost models for bDNA: 440 Molecular System versus real-time PCR AmpliPrep/TaqMan test.

PubMed

Elbeik, Tarek; Dalessandro, Ralph; Loftus, Richard A; Beringer, Scott

2007-11-01

Comparative cost models were developed to assess cost-per-reportable result and annual costs for HIV-1 and HCV bDNA and AmpliPrep/TaqMan Test (PCR). Model cost components included kit, disposables, platform and related equipment, equipment service plan, equipment maintenance, equipment footprint, waste and labor. Model assessment was most cost-effective when run by bDNA with 36 or more clinical samples and PCR with 30 or fewer clinical samples. Lower costs are attained with maximum samples (84-168) run daily. Highest cost contributors include kit, platform and PCR proprietary disposables. Understanding component costs and the most economic use of HIV-1 and HCV viral load will aid in attaining lowest costs through selection of the appropriate assay and effective negotiations.

NASA Space Radiation Risk Project: Overview and Recent Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blattnig, Steve R.; Chappell, Lori J.; George, Kerry A.; Hada, Megumi; Hu, Shaowen; Kidane, Yared H.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Kovyrshina, Tatiana; Norman, Ryan B.; Nounu, Hatem N.;

The influence of global self-heating on the Yarkovsky and YORP effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozitis, B.; Green, S. F.

2013-07-01

In addition to collisions and gravitational forces, there is a growing amount of evidence that photon recoil forces from the asymmetric reflection and thermal re-radiation of absorbed sunlight are primary mechanisms that are fundamental to the physical and dynamical evolution of small asteroids. The Yarkovsky effect causes orbital drift, and the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect causes changes in the rotation rate and pole orientation. We present an adaptation of the Advanced Thermophysical Model to simultaneously predict the Yarkovsky and YORP effects in the presence of global self-heating that occurs within the large concavities of irregularly shaped asteroids, which has been neglected or dismissed in all previous models. It is also combined with rough surface thermal-infrared beaming effects, which have been previously shown to enhance the Yarkovsky orbital drift and dampen on average the YORP rotational acceleration by orders of several tens of per cent. Tests on all published concave shape models of near-Earth asteroids, and also on 100 Gaussian random spheres, show that the Yarkovsky effect is sensitive to shadowing and global self-heating effects at the few per cent level or less. For simplicity, Yarkovsky models can neglect these effects if the level of accuracy desired is of this order. Unlike the Yarkovsky effect, the YORP effect can be very sensitive to shadowing and global self-heating effects. Its sensitivity increases with decreasing relative strength of the YORP rotational acceleration, and does not appear to depend greatly on the degree of asteroid concavity. Global self-heating tends to produce a vertical offset in an asteroid's YORP-rotational-acceleration versus obliquity curve which is in opposite direction to that produced by shadowing effects. It also ensures that at least one critical obliquity angle exists at which zero YORP rotational acceleration occurs. Global self-heating must be included for accurate predictions of the YORP effect if an asteroid exhibits a large shadowing effect. If global self-heating effects are not included, then it is found in ˜75 per cent of cases that better predictions are produced when shadowing is also not included. Furthermore, global self-heating has implications for reducing the sensitivity of the YORP effect predictions to detailed variations in an asteroid's shape model.

Quantifying the Global Nitrous Oxide Emissions Using a Trait-based Biogeochemistry Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Q.; Yu, T.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen is an essential element for the global biogeochemical cycle. It is a key nutrient for organisms and N compounds including nitrous oxide significantly influence the global climate. The activities of bacteria and archaea are responsible for the nitrification and denitrification in a wide variety of environments, so microbes play an important role in the nitrogen cycle in soils. To date, most existing process-based models treated nitrification and denitrification as chemical reactions driven by soil physical variables including soil temperature and moisture. In general, the effect of microbes on N cycling has not been modeled in sufficient details. Soil organic carbon also affects the N cycle because it supplies energy to microbes. In my study, a trait-based biogeochemistry model quantifying N2O emissions from the terrestrial ecosystems is developed based on an extant process-based model TEM (Terrestrial Ecosystem Model). Specifically, the improvement to TEM includes: 1) Incorporating the N fixation process to account for the inflow of N from the atmosphere to biosphere; 2) Implementing the effects of microbial dynamics on nitrification process; 3) fully considering the effects of carbon cycling on N nitrogen cycling following the principles of stoichiometry of carbon and nitrogen in soils, plants, and microbes. The difference between simulations with and without the consideration of bacterial activity lies between 5% 25% based on climate conditions and vegetation types. The trait based module allows a more detailed estimation of global N2O emissions.

40 CFR 52.2039 - Interstate transport.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Portland shall comply with the following requirements: (1) Perform air modeling to demonstrate that... the effective date of the section 126 finding, submit to the EPA a modeling protocol that is... that includes all units at the Portland Generating Station in the modeling. (ii) Within 15 business...

40 CFR 52.2039 - Interstate transport.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Portland shall comply with the following requirements: (1) Perform air modeling to demonstrate that... the effective date of the section 126 finding, submit to the EPA a modeling protocol that is... that includes all units at the Portland Generating Station in the modeling. (ii) Within 15 business...

40 CFR 52.2039 - Interstate transport.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Portland shall comply with the following requirements: (1) Perform air modeling to demonstrate that... the effective date of the section 126 finding, submit to the EPA a modeling protocol that is... that includes all units at the Portland Generating Station in the modeling. (ii) Within 15 business...

[A Structural Equation Model on Family Strength of Married Working Women].

PubMed

Hong, Yeong Seon; Han, Kuem Sun

2015-12-01

The purpose of this study was to identify the effect of predictive factors related to family strength and develop a structural equation model that explains family strength among married working women. A hypothesized model was developed based on literature reviews and predictors of family strength by Yoo. This constructed model was built of an eight pathway form. Two exogenous variables included in this model were ego-resilience and family support. Three endogenous variables included in this model were functional couple communication, family stress and family strength. Data were collected using a self-report questionnaire from 319 married working women who were 30~40 of age and lived in cities of Chungnam province in Korea. Data were analyzed with PASW/WIN 18.0 and AMOS 18.0 programs. Family support had a positive direct, indirect and total effect on family strength. Family stress had a negative direct, indirect and total effect on family strength. Functional couple communication had a positive direct and total effect on family strength. These predictive variables of family strength explained 61.8% of model. The results of the study show a structural equation model for family strength of married working women and that predicting factors for family strength are family support, family stress, and functional couple communication. To improve family strength of married working women, the results of this study suggest nursing access and mediative programs to improve family support and functional couple communication, and reduce family stress.

Robust inference in discrete hazard models for randomized clinical trials.

PubMed

Nguyen, Vinh Q; Gillen, Daniel L

2012-10-01

Time-to-event data in which failures are only assessed at discrete time points are common in many clinical trials. Examples include oncology studies where events are observed through periodic screenings such as radiographic scans. When the survival endpoint is acknowledged to be discrete, common methods for the analysis of observed failure times include the discrete hazard models (e.g., the discrete-time proportional hazards and the continuation ratio model) and the proportional odds model. In this manuscript, we consider estimation of a marginal treatment effect in discrete hazard models where the constant treatment effect assumption is violated. We demonstrate that the estimator resulting from these discrete hazard models is consistent for a parameter that depends on the underlying censoring distribution. An estimator that removes the dependence on the censoring mechanism is proposed and its asymptotic distribution is derived. Basing inference on the proposed estimator allows for statistical inference that is scientifically meaningful and reproducible. Simulation is used to assess the performance of the presented methodology in finite samples.

Effects of Instructional Design with Mental Model Analysis on Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Eunsook

This paper presents a model for systematic instructional design that includes mental model analysis together with the procedures used in developing computer-based instructional materials in the area of statistical hypothesis testing. The instructional design model is based on the premise that the objective for learning is to achieve expert-like…

Investigating the state of physiologically based kinetic modelling practices and challenges associated with gaining regulatory acceptance of model applications

EPA Science Inventory

Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models are used widely throughout a number of working sectors, including academia and industry, to provide insight into the dosimetry related to observed adverse health effects in humans and other species. Use of these models has increased over...

Induced polarization and its interaction with electromagnetic coupling in low-frequency geophysical exploration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gruszka, T.P.

1987-01-01

Starting from the dynamic equations of electromagnetics we derive mutual impedance formulas that include the effects of induced polarization (IP) and electromagnetic (EM) coupling. The mutual impedance formulas are given for four geometries: a fullspace, a cylinder in a fullspace, a halfspace, and a layer over a halfspace. IP effects are characterized by a Cole-Cole model, the properties of which are fully investigated. From the general mutual impedance formulas specific limiting forms are defined to characterize the IP and EM effects. Using these limiting forms a framework is developed to justify the addition or multiplication of the two effects. Themore » additive and multiplicative models are compared in the cylinder and layer geometries with the conclusion that the additive model proves to be more accurate over a wider range of frequencies than the multiplicative model. The nature of the IP and EM effects is illustrated in all four geometries showing the effects of relevant parameters. In all cases it is shown that the real part of the mutual impedance contains important IP information that is less influenced by EM effects. Finally the effects of boundaries are illustrated by the cylinder and layer geometries and a theory is developed to incorporate EM effects and IP effects from multiple regions which utilizes frequency dependent real dilution factors. The author also included a brief review of some EM removal schemes and dilution theory approximations.« less

Current state of aerosol nucleation parameterizations for air-quality and climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semeniuk, Kirill; Dastoor, Ashu

2018-04-01

Aerosol nucleation parameterization models commonly used in 3-D air quality and climate models have serious limitations. This includes classical nucleation theory based variants, empirical models and other formulations. Recent work based on detailed and extensive laboratory measurements and improved quantum chemistry computation has substantially advanced the state of nucleation parameterizations. In terms of inorganic nucleation involving BHN and THN including ion effects these new models should be considered as worthwhile replacements for the old models. However, the contribution of organic species to nucleation remains poorly quantified. New particle formation consists of a distinct post-nucleation growth regime which is characterized by a strong Kelvin curvature effect and is thus dependent on availability of very low volatility organic species or sulfuric acid. There have been advances in the understanding of the multiphase chemistry of biogenic and anthropogenic organic compounds which facilitate to overcome the initial aerosol growth barrier. Implementation of processes influencing new particle formation is challenging in 3-D models and there is a lack of comprehensive parameterizations. This review considers the existing models and recent innovations.

The Mars Dust Cycle: Investigating the Effects of Radiatively Active Water Ice Clouds on Surface Stresses and Dust Lifting Potential with the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, Melinda A.; Hollingsworth, Jeffery

2012-01-01

The dust cycle is a critically important component of Mars' current climate system. Dust is present in the atmosphere of Mars year-round but the dust loading varies with season in a generally repeatable manner. Dust has a significant influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly affects atmospheric circulation. The dust cycle is the most difficult of the three climate cycles (CO2, water, and dust) to model realistically with general circulation models. Until recently, numerical modeling investigations of the dust cycle have typically not included the effects of couplings to the water cycle through cloud formation. In the Martian atmosphere, dust particles likely provide the seed nuclei for heterogeneous nucleation of water ice clouds. As ice coats atmospheric dust grains, the newly formed cloud particles exhibit different physical and radiative characteristics. Thus, the coupling between the dust and water cycles likely affects the distributions of dust, water vapor and water ice, and thus atmospheric heating and cooling and the resulting circulations. We use the NASA Ames Mars GCM to investigate the effects of radiatively active water ice clouds on surface stress and the potential for dust lifting. The model includes a state-of-the-art water ice cloud microphysics package and a radiative transfer scheme that accounts for the radiative effects of CO2 gas, dust, and water ice clouds. We focus on simulations that are radiatively forced by a prescribed dust map, and we compare simulations that do and do not include radiatively active clouds. Preliminary results suggest that the magnitude and spatial patterns of surface stress (and thus dust lifting potential) are substantial influenced by the radiative effects of water ice clouds.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of initial treatment strategies for mild-to-moderate Clostridium difficile infection in hospitalized patients.

PubMed

Ford, Diana C; Schroeder, Mary C; Ince, Dilek; Ernst, Erika J

2018-06-14

The cost-effectiveness of initial treatment strategies for mild-to-moderate Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in hospitalized patients was evaluated. Decision-analytic models were constructed to compare initial treatment with metronidazole, vancomycin, and fidaxomicin. The primary model included 1 recurrence, and the secondary model included up to 3 recurrences. Model variables were extracted from published literature with costs based on a healthcare system perspective. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER) between initial treatment strategies. In the primary model, the overall percentage of patients cured was 94.23%, 95.19%, and 96.53% with metronidazole, vancomycin, and fidaxomicin, respectively. Expected costs per case were $1,553.01, $1,306.62, and $5,095.70, respectively. In both models, vancomycin was more effective and less costly than metronidazole, resulting in negative ICERs. The ICERs for fidaxomicin compared with those for metronidazole and vancomycin in the primary model were $1,540.23 and $2,828.69 per 1% gain in cure, respectively. Using these models, a hospital currently treating initial episodes of mild-to-moderate CDI with metronidazole could expect to save $246.39-$388.37 per case treated by using vancomycin for initial therapy. A decision-analytic model revealed vancomycin to be cost-effective, compared with metronidazole, for treatment of initial episodes of mild-to-moderate CDI in adult inpatients. From the hospital perspective, initial treatment with vancomycin resulted in a higher probability of cure and a lower probability of colectomy, recurrence, persistent recurrence, and cost per case treated, compared with metronidazole. Use of fidaxomicin was associated with an increased probability of cure compared with metronidazole and vancomycin, but at a substantially increased cost. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

Aerosol indirect effect on the grid-scale clouds in the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ: model description, development, evaluation and regional analysis

EPA Science Inventory

This study implemented first, second and glaciations aerosol indirect effects (AIE) on resolved clouds in the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ modeling system by including parameterizations for both cloud drop and ice number concentrations on the basis of CMAQ predicted aerosol distribu...

A Model of Sexual Abuse's Effects on Suicidal Behavior and Delinquency: The Role of Emotions as Mediating Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Asgeirsdottir, Bryndis Bjork; Gudjonsson, Gisli H.; Sigurdsson, Jon Fridrik

2008-01-01

Drawing on Agnew's general strain theory, we examined whether depressed mood and anger mediated the effects of sexual abuse on suicidal behavior and delinquency. Participants included 9,113 students attending high schools in Iceland. Structural equation modeling showed that, while controlling for family structure and parental education, being…

An Investigation of Learning Styles Influencing Mathematics Achievement of Seventh-Grade Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sriphai, Sunan; Damrongpanit, Suntonrapot; Sakulku, Jaruwan

2011-01-01

This study aims to investigate the effect of learning styles, as well as compare the effect of two different variable structure models of learning styles on factors influencing mathematics achievement. The research sample was made up of 508 seventh-grade students. The findings were that the model including learning styles as factors influencing…

The Relationship between Student Transfers and District Academic Performance: Accounting for Feedback Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Welsch, David M.; Zimmer, David M.

2015-01-01

This paper draws attention to a subtle, but concerning, empirical challenge common in panel data models that seek to estimate the relationship between student transfers and district academic performance. Specifically, if such models have a dynamic element, and if the estimator controls for unobserved traits by including district-level effects,…

The Effects of the Coordination Support on Shared Mental Models and Coordinated Action

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Hyunsong; Kim, Dongsik

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of coordination support (tool support and tutor support) on the development of shared mental models (SMMs) and coordinated action in a computer-supported collaborative learning environment. Eighteen students were randomly assigned to one of three conditions, including the tool condition, the…

Anisotropic shear dispersion parameterization for ocean eddy transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reckinger, Scott; Fox-Kemper, Baylor

2015-11-01

The effects of mesoscale eddies are universally treated isotropically in global ocean general circulation models. However, observations and simulations demonstrate that the mesoscale processes that the parameterization is intended to represent, such as shear dispersion, are typified by strong anisotropy. We extend the Gent-McWilliams/Redi mesoscale eddy parameterization to include anisotropy and test the effects of varying levels of anisotropy in 1-degree Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations. Anisotropy has many effects on the simulated climate, including a reduction of temperature and salinity biases, a deepening of the southern ocean mixed-layer depth, impacts on the meridional overturning circulation and ocean energy and tracer uptake, and improved ventilation of biogeochemical tracers, particularly in oxygen minimum zones. A process-based parameterization to approximate the effects of unresolved shear dispersion is also used to set the strength and direction of anisotropy. The shear dispersion parameterization is similar to drifter observations in spatial distribution of diffusivity and high-resolution model diagnosis in the distribution of eddy flux orientation.

Endovascular Therapy Demonstrates Benefit over Intravenous Recombinant Tissue Plasminogen Activator Based on Repeatedly Measured National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale.

PubMed

Fan, Liqiong; Yeatts, Sharon D; Foster, Lydia D; Khatri, Pooja; Tomsick, Thomas; Broderick, Joseph P; Palesch, Yuko Y

2017-03-01

The Interventional Management of Stroke (IMS) III trial was a randomized controlled trial designed to compare the effect of endovascular therapy after intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (i.v. rt-PA) as compared to i.v. rt-PA alone. The primary outcome was modified Rankin Scale at 90 days. Secondary outcomes included National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), which was assessed repeatedly through 90 days. The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the treatment effect of endovascular therapy over time on NIHSS. 656 subjects were enrolled in the IMS III trial, including 434 subjects randomized to endovascular therapy and 222 to i.v. rt-PA only. NIHSS scores evaluated at 40 min, 24 h, Day 5, and Day 90 were included in the analysis. A covariance structure model was used to investigate the treatment effect on NIHSS over time, adjusting for relevant covariates including baseline stroke severity. Model assumptions were valid. Based on the covariance structure model, after adjusting for relevant baseline covariates, a significant time-by-treatment interaction effect ( p = 0.0137) was observed. Only NIHSS at Day 90 showed a significant treatment effect ( p = 0.0473), with subjects in the endovascular arm having a lower NIHSS (less neurologic deficit) compared to the i.v. rt-PA arm. The IMS III trial demonstrated an endovascular treatment effect based on the secondary outcome of NIHSS. However, the magnitude of this treatment effect varied by the time of assessment. It was only at Day 90 that the endovascular arm had a significantly lower NIHSS compared to that in the i.v. rt-PA arm.

Shear-flexible finite-element models of laminated composite plates and shells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, A. K.; Mathers, M. D.

1975-01-01

Several finite-element models are applied to the linear static, stability, and vibration analysis of laminated composite plates and shells. The study is based on linear shallow-shell theory, with the effects of shear deformation, anisotropic material behavior, and bending-extensional coupling included. Both stiffness (displacement) and mixed finite-element models are considered. Discussion is focused on the effects of shear deformation and anisotropic material behavior on the accuracy and convergence of different finite-element models. Numerical studies are presented which show the effects of increasing the order of the approximating polynomials, adding internal degrees of freedom, and using derivatives of generalized displacements as nodal parameters.

CESM-simulated 21st Century Changes in Large Scale Crop Water Requirements and Yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levis, S.; Badger, A.; Drewniak, B. A.; O'Neill, B. C.; Ren, X.

2014-12-01

We assess potential changes in crop water requirements and corresponding yields relative to the late 20th century in major crop producing regions of the world by using the Community Land Model (CLM) driven with 21st century meteorology from RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations. The RCP4.5 simulation allows us to explore the potential for averted societal impacts when compared to the RCP8.5 simulation. We consider the possibility for increased yields and improved water use efficiency under conditions of elevated atmospheric CO2 due to the CO2 fertilization effect (also known as concentration-carbon feedback). We address uncertainty in the current understanding of plant CO2 fertilization by repeating the simulations with and without the CO2 fertilization effect. Simulations without CO2 fertilization represent the radiative effect of elevated CO2 (i.e., warming) without representing the physiological effect of elevated CO2 (enhanced carbon uptake and increased water use efficiency by plants during photosynthesis). Preliminary results suggest that some plants may suffer from increasing heat and drought in much of the world without the CO2 fertilization effect. On the other hand plants (especially C3) tend to grow more with less water when models include the CO2 fertilization effect. Performing 21st century simulations with and without the CO2 fertilization effect brackets the potential range of outcomes. In this work we use the CLM crop model, which includes specific crop types that differ from the model's default plant functional types in that the crops get planted, harvested, and potentially fertilized and irrigated according to algorithms that attempt to capture human management decisions. We use an updated version of the CLM4.5 that includes cotton, rice, and sugarcane, spring wheat, spring barley, and spring rye, as well as temperate and tropical maize and soybean.

Effect of the science teaching advancement through modeling physical science professional development workshop on teachers' attitudes, beliefs and content knowledge and students' content knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietz, Laura

The Science Teaching Advancement through Modeling Physical Science (STAMPS) professional development workshop was evaluated for effectiveness in improving teachers' and students' content knowledge. Previous research has shown modeling to be an effective method of instruction for improving student and teacher content knowledge, evidenced by assessment scores. Data includes teacher scores on the Force Concept Inventory (FCI; Hestenes, Wells, & Swackhamer, 1992) and the Chemistry Concept Inventory (CCI; Jenkins, Birk, Bauer, Krause, & Pavelich, 2004), as well as student scores on a physics and chemistry assessment. Quantitative data is supported by teacher responses to a post workshop survey and classroom observations. Evaluation of the data shows that the STAMPS professional development workshop was successful in improving both student and teacher content knowledge. Conclusions and suggestions for future study are also included.

A conceptual model to facilitate amphibian conservation in the northern Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushnet, David M.; Euliss, Ned H.; Stockwell, Craig A.

2012-01-01

As pressures on agricultural landscapes to meet worldwide resource needs increase, amphibian populations face numerous threats including habitat destruction, chemical contaminants, disease outbreaks, wetland sedimentation, and synergistic effects of these perturbations. To facilitate conservation planning, we developed a conceptual model depicting elements critical for amphibian conservation in the northern Great Plains. First, we linked upland, wetland, and landscape features to specific ecological attributes. Ecological attributes included adult survival; reproduction and survival to metamorphosis; and successful dispersal and recolonization. Second, we linked ecosystem drivers, ecosystem stressors, and ecological effects of the region to each ecological attribute. Lastly, we summarized information on these ecological attributes and the drivers, stressors, and effects that work in concert to influence the maintenance of viable and genetically diverse amphibian populations in the northern Great Plains. While our focus was on the northern Great Plains, our conceptual model can be tailored to other geographic regions and taxa.

ACE Over Expression in Myelomonocytic Cells: Effect on a Mouse Model of Alzheimer's Disease

PubMed Central

Koronyo-Hamaoui, Maya; Shah, Kandarp; Koronyo, Yosef; Bernstein, Ellen; Giani, Jorge F.; Janjulia, Tea; Black, Keith L.; Shi, Peng D.; Gonzalez-Villalobos, Romer A.; Fuchs, Sebastien; Shen, Xiao Z.; Bernstein, Kenneth E.

2014-01-01

While it is well known that angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) plays an important role in blood pressure control, ACE also has effects on renal function, hematopoiesis, reproduction, and aspects of the immune response. ACE 10/10 mice over express ACE in myelomonocytic cells. Macrophages from these mice have an increased polarization towards a pro-inflammatory phenotype that results in a very effective immune response to challenge by tumors or bacterial infection. In a mouse model of Alzheimer's disease (AD), the ACE 10/10 phenotype provides significant protection against AD pathology, including reduced inflammation, reduced burden of the neurotoxic amyloid-β protein and preserved cognitive function. Taken together, these studies show that increased myelomonocytic ACE expression in mice alters the immune response to better defend against many different types of pathologic insult, including the cognitive decline observed in an animal model of AD. PMID:24792094

Viscous-inviscid interaction method including wake effects for three-dimensional wing-body configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Streett, C. L.

1981-01-01

A viscous-inviscid interaction method has been developed by using a three-dimensional integral boundary-layer method which produces results in good agreement with a finite-difference method in a fraction of the computer time. The integral method is stable and robust and incorporates a model for computation in a small region of streamwise separation. A locally two-dimensional wake model, accounting for thickness and curvature effects, is also included in the interaction procedure. Computation time spent in converging an interacted result is, many times, only slightly greater than that required to converge an inviscid calculation. Results are shown from the interaction method, run at experimental angle of attack, Reynolds number, and Mach number, on a wing-body test case for which viscous effects are large. Agreement with experiment is good; in particular, the present wake model improves prediction of the spanwise lift distribution and lower surface cove pressure.

Association of total mixed ration particle fractions retained on the Penn State Particle Separator with milk, fat, and protein yield lactation curves at the cow level.

PubMed

Caccamo, M; Ferguson, J D; Veerkamp, R F; Schadt, I; Petriglieri, R; Azzaro, G; Pozzebon, A; Licitra, G

2014-01-01

As part of a larger project aiming to develop management evaluation tools based on results from test-day (TD) models, the objective of this study was to examine the effect of physical composition of total mixed rations (TMR) tested quarterly from March 2006 through December 2008 on milk, fat, and protein yield curves for 25 herds in Ragusa, Sicily. A random regression sire-maternal grandsire model was used to estimate variance components for milk, fat, and protein yields fitted on a full data set, including 241,153 TD records from 9,809 animals in 42 herds recorded from 1995 through 2008. The model included parity, age at calving, year at calving, and stage of pregnancy as fixed effects. Random effects were herd × test date, sire and maternal grandsire additive genetic effect, and permanent environmental effect modeled using third-order Legendre polynomials. Model fitting was carried out using ASREML. Afterward, for the 25 herds involved in the study, 9 particle size classes were defined based on the proportions of TMR particles on the top (19-mm) and middle (8-mm) screen of the Penn State Particle Separator. Subsequently, the model with estimated variance components was used to examine the influence of TMR particle size class on milk, fat, and protein yield curves. An interaction was included with the particle size class and days in milk. The effect of the TMR particle size class was modeled using a ninth-order Legendre polynomial. Lactation curves were predicted from the model while controlling for TMR chemical composition (crude protein content of 15.5%, neutral detergent fiber of 40.7%, and starch of 19.7% for all classes), to have pure estimates of particle distribution not confounded by nutrient content of TMR. We found little effect of class of particle proportions on milk yield and fat yield curves. Protein yield was greater for sieve classes with 10.4 to 17.4% of TMR particles retained on the top (19-mm) sieve. Optimal distributions different from those recommended may reflect regional differences based on climate and types and quality of forages fed. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Soliton configurations in generalized Mie electrodynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rybakov, Yu. P., E-mail: soliton4@mail.ru

2011-07-15

The generalization of the Mie electrodynamics within the scope of the effective 8-spinor field model is suggested, with the Lagrangian including Higgs-like potential and higher degrees of the invariant A{sub Micro-Sign }A{sup Micro-Sign }. Using special Brioschi 8-spinor identity, we show that the model includes the Skyrme and the Faddeev models as particular cases. We investigate the large-distance asymptotic of static solutions and estimate the electromagnetic contribution to the energy of the localized charged configuration.

Molecular Hydrogen as an Emerging Therapeutic Medical Gas for Neurodegenerative and Other Diseases

PubMed Central

Ohno, Kinji; Ito, Mikako; Ichihara, Masatoshi; Ito, Masafumi

2012-01-01

Effects of molecular hydrogen on various diseases have been documented for 63 disease models and human diseases in the past four and a half years. Most studies have been performed on rodents including two models of Parkinson's disease and three models of Alzheimer's disease. Prominent effects are observed especially in oxidative stress-mediated diseases including neonatal cerebral hypoxia; Parkinson's disease; ischemia/reperfusion of spinal cord, heart, lung, liver, kidney, and intestine; transplantation of lung, heart, kidney, and intestine. Six human diseases have been studied to date: diabetes mellitus type 2, metabolic syndrome, hemodialysis, inflammatory and mitochondrial myopathies, brain stem infarction, and radiation-induced adverse effects. Two enigmas, however, remain to be solved. First, no dose-response effect is observed. Rodents and humans are able to take a small amount of hydrogen by drinking hydrogen-rich water, but marked effects are observed. Second, intestinal bacteria in humans and rodents produce a large amount of hydrogen, but an addition of a small amount of hydrogen exhibits marked effects. Further studies are required to elucidate molecular bases of prominent hydrogen effects and to determine the optimal frequency, amount, and method of hydrogen administration for each human disease. PMID:22720117

A hybrid approach to estimating national scale spatiotemporal variability of PM2.5 in the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Beckerman, Bernardo S; Jerrett, Michael; Serre, Marc; Martin, Randall V; Lee, Seung-Jae; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Ross, Zev; Su, Jason; Burnett, Richard T

2013-07-02

Airborne fine particulate matter exhibits spatiotemporal variability at multiple scales, which presents challenges to estimating exposures for health effects assessment. Here we created a model to predict ambient particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) across the contiguous United States to be applied to health effects modeling. We developed a hybrid approach combining a land use regression model (LUR) selected with a machine learning method, and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) interpolation of the LUR space-time residuals. The PM2.5 data set included 104,172 monthly observations at 1464 monitoring locations with approximately 10% of locations reserved for cross-validation. LUR models were based on remote sensing estimates of PM2.5, land use and traffic indicators. Normalized cross-validated R(2) values for LUR were 0.63 and 0.11 with and without remote sensing, respectively, suggesting remote sensing is a strong predictor of ground-level concentrations. In the models including the BME interpolation of the residuals, cross-validated R(2) were 0.79 for both configurations; the model without remotely sensed data described more fine-scale variation than the model including remote sensing. Our results suggest that our modeling framework can predict ground-level concentrations of PM2.5 at multiple scales over the contiguous U.S.

Diagnoses-based cost groups in the Dutch risk-equalization model: the effects of including outpatient diagnoses.

PubMed

van Kleef, R C; van Vliet, R C J A; van Rooijen, E M

2014-03-01

The Dutch basic health-insurance scheme for curative care includes a risk equalization model (RE-model) to compensate competing health insurers for the predictable high costs of people in poor health. Since 2004, this RE-model includes the so-called Diagnoses-based Cost Groups (DCGs) as a risk adjuster. Until 2013, these DCGs have been mainly based on diagnoses from inpatient hospital treatment. This paper examines (1) to what extent the Dutch RE-model can be improved by extending the inpatient DCGs with diagnoses from outpatient hospital treatment and (2) how to treat outpatient diagnoses relative to their corresponding inpatient diagnoses. Based on individual-level administrative costs we estimate the Dutch RE-model with three different DCG modalities. Using individual-level survey information from a prior year we examine the outcomes of these modalities for different groups of people in poor health. We find that extending DCGs with outpatient diagnoses has hardly any effect on the R-squared of the RE-model, but reduces the undercompensation for people with a chronic condition by about 8%. With respect to incentives, it may be preferable to make no distinction between corresponding inpatient and outpatient diagnoses in the DCG-classification, although this will be at the expense of the predictive accuracy of the RE-model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Reservoir Operation to the Inflow Flood - a Case Study of Xinfengjiang Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L.

2017-12-01

Building of reservoir shall impact the runoff production and routing characteristics, and changes the flood formation. This impact, called as reservoir flood effect, could be divided into three parts, including routing effect, volume effect and peak flow effect, and must be evaluated in a whole by using hydrological model. After analyzing the reservoir flood formation, the Liuxihe Model for reservoir flood forecasting is proposed. The Xinfengjiang Reservoir is studied as a case. Results show that the routing effect makes peak flow appear 4 to 6 hours in advance, volume effect is bigger for large flood than small one, and when rainfall focus on the reservoir area, this effect also increases peak flow largely, peak flow effect makes peak flow increase 6.63% to 8.95%. Reservoir flood effect is obvious, which have significant impact to reservoir flood. If this effect is not considered in the flood forecasting model, the flood could not be forecasted accurately, particularly the peak flow. Liuxihe Model proposed for Xinfengjiang Reservoir flood forecasting has a good performance, and could be used for real-time flood forecasting of Xinfengjiang Reservoir.Key words: Reservoir flood effect, reservoir flood forecasting, physically based distributed hydrological model, Liuxihe Model, parameter optimization

Evaluation and prediction of long-term environmental effects of nonmetallic materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Papazian, H.

1985-01-01

The properties of a number of nonmetallic materials were evaluated experimentally in simulated space environments in order to develop models for accelerated test methods useful for predicting such behavioral changes. Graphite-epoxy composites were exposed to thermal cycling. Adhesive foam tapes were subjected to a vacuum environment. Metal-matrix composites were tested for baseline data. Predictive modeling designed to include strength and aging effects on composites, polymeric films, and metals under such space conditions (including the atomic oxygen environment) is discussed. The Korel 8031-00 high strength adhesive foam tape was shown to be superior to the other two tested.

Climate effects of reducing black carbon emissions: Dependence on location of emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuglestvedt, J.; Berntsen, T.; Myhre, G.; Rive, N. A.; Rypdal, K.; Gerland, S.; Pedersen, C.; Strøm, J.

2006-12-01

The role played by emissions of black carbon aerosols (BC) on the Earth's climate is diverse and the overall effect is still quite uncertain: Black carbon not only absorbs sunlight (direct effect), but it also has a semi- direct effect on clouds, and when deposited on snow and ice it changes the reflectivity (albedo) of the ground surface. These mechanisms generally have a warming effect on the climate. This poster presents a Norwegian project that focus on the net effect of current BC emissions and future possible reductions in emissions of BC aerosols, taking into account scientific, economic, and political perspectives on the inclusion of BC in climate policies. Thus, the scope of the project is interdisciplinary and includes observations in the Arctic, model simulations of dispersion of BC aerosols, its radiative forcing and climate effects. Some initial results from measurements of BC content in snow from the Norwegian Arctic and corresponding measurements for surface reflectance will be presented. The radiative forcing of BC emissions from different geographical regions differs due to differences in the removal processes (i.e. the lifetime) and the amount of solar radiation available for absorption (depends on latitude, clouds, and surface albedo). The atmospheric burdens and RF (of the direct effect) of regional BC emissions from fossil fuel sources have been calculated by the global chemical transport model Oslo-CTM2 and a radiative transfer model, and first results of time-integrated RF per unit of emission (equivalent to absolute GWPs) are presented. Future plans including i) analysis of cost effective emission reduction strategies, taking into account regional differences the forcing efficiencies, but also cost estimates for BC reductions in the different regions, and ii) an evaluation of the climate effects of the emission reductions through model simulations, including climatic, economic and political perspectives exploring obstacles and opportunities will also be presented.

Modeling spatial and temporal variability of residential air exchange rates for the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS).

PubMed

Breen, Michael S; Burke, Janet M; Batterman, Stuart A; Vette, Alan F; Godwin, Christopher; Croghan, Carry W; Schultz, Bradley D; Long, Thomas C

2014-11-07

Air pollution health studies often use outdoor concentrations as exposure surrogates. Failure to account for variability of residential infiltration of outdoor pollutants can induce exposure errors and lead to bias and incorrect confidence intervals in health effect estimates. The residential air exchange rate (AER), which is the rate of exchange of indoor air with outdoor air, is an important determinant for house-to-house (spatial) and temporal variations of air pollution infiltration. Our goal was to evaluate and apply mechanistic models to predict AERs for 213 homes in the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS), a cohort study of traffic-related air pollution exposures and respiratory effects in asthmatic children living near major roads in Detroit, Michigan. We used a previously developed model (LBL), which predicts AER from meteorology and questionnaire data on building characteristics related to air leakage, and an extended version of this model (LBLX) that includes natural ventilation from open windows. As a critical and novel aspect of our AER modeling approach, we performed a cross validation, which included both parameter estimation (i.e., model calibration) and model evaluation, based on daily AER measurements from a subset of 24 study homes on five consecutive days during two seasons. The measured AER varied between 0.09 and 3.48 h(-1) with a median of 0.64 h(-1). For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 29% (0.19 h‑1) for both the LBL and LBLX models. The LBL and LBLX models predicted 59% and 61% of the variance in the AER, respectively. Daily AER predictions for all 213 homes during the three year study (2010-2012) showed considerable house-to-house variations from building leakage differences, and temporal variations from outdoor temperature and wind speed fluctuations. Using this novel approach, NEXUS will be one of the first epidemiology studies to apply calibrated and home-specific AER models, and to include the spatial and temporal variations of AER for over 200 individual homes across multiple years into an exposure assessment in support of improving risk estimates.

The effects of integrated care: a systematic review of UK and international evidence.

PubMed

Baxter, Susan; Johnson, Maxine; Chambers, Duncan; Sutton, Anthea; Goyder, Elizabeth; Booth, Andrew

2018-05-10

Healthcare systems around the world have been responding to the demand for better integrated models of service delivery. However, there is a need for further clarity regarding the effects of these new models of integration, and exploration regarding whether models introduced in other care systems may achieve similar outcomes in a UK national health service context. The study aimed to carry out a systematic review of the effects of integration or co-ordination between healthcare services, or between health and social care on service delivery outcomes including effectiveness, efficiency and quality of care. Electronic databases including MEDLINE; Embase; PsycINFO; CINAHL; Science and Social Science Citation Indices; and the Cochrane Library were searched for relevant literature published between 2006 to March 2017. Online sources were searched for UK grey literature, and citation searching, and manual reference list screening were also carried out. Quantitative primary studies and systematic reviews, reporting actual or perceived effects on service delivery following the introduction of models of integration or co-ordination, in healthcare or health and social care settings in developed countries were eligible for inclusion. Strength of evidence for each outcome reported was analysed and synthesised using a four point comparative rating system of stronger, weaker, inconsistent or limited evidence. One hundred sixty seven studies were eligible for inclusion. Analysis indicated evidence of perceived improved quality of care, evidence of increased patient satisfaction, and evidence of improved access to care. Evidence was rated as either inconsistent or limited regarding all other outcomes reported, including system-wide impacts on primary care, secondary care, and health care costs. There were limited differences between outcomes reported by UK and international studies, and overall the literature had a limited consideration of effects on service users. Models of integrated care may enhance patient satisfaction, increase perceived quality of care, and enable access to services, although the evidence for other outcomes including service costs remains unclear. Indications of improved access may have important implications for services struggling to cope with increasing demand. Prospero registration number: 42016037725 .

Climate Change, Air Pollution, and the Economics of Health Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reilly, J.; Yang, T.; Paltsev, S.; Wang, C.; Prinn, R.; Sarofim, M.

2003-12-01

Climate change and air pollution are intricately linked. The distinction between greenhouse substances and other air pollutants is resolved at least for the time being in the context of international negotiations on climate policy through the identification of CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 and the per- and hydro- fluorocarbons as substances targeted for control. Many of the traditional air pollutant emissions including for example CO, NMVOCs, NOx, SO2, aerosols, and NH3 also directly or indirectly affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Among both sets of gases are precursors of and contributors to pollutants such as tropopospheric ozone, itself a strong greenhouse gas, particulate matter, and other pollutants that affect human health. Fossil fuel combustion, production, or transportation is a significant source for many of these substances. Climate policy can thus affect traditional air pollution or air pollution policy can affect climate. Health effects of acute or chronic exposure to air pollution include increased asthma, lung cancer, heart disease and bronchitis among others. These, in turn, redirect resources in the economy toward medical expenditures or result in lost labor or non-labor time with consequent effects on economic activity, itself producing a potential feedback on emissions levels. Study of these effects ultimately requires a fully coupled earth system model. Toward that end we develop an approach for introducing air pollution health impacts into the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) a coupled economics-chemistry-atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial biosphere model of earth systems including an air pollution model resolving the urban scale. This preliminary examination allows us to consider how climate policy affects air pollution and consequent health effects, and to study the potential impacts of air pollution policy on climate. The novel contribution is the effort to endogenize air pollution impacts within the EPPA model, allowing us to study potential economic effects and feedbacks. We find strong interaction between air pollution and economies, although precise estimates of the effects require further investigation and refined resolution of the urban scale chemistry model.

The Triangle Model for evaluating the effect of health information technology on healthcare quality and safety

PubMed Central

Kern, Lisa M; Abramson, Erika; Kaushal, Rainu

2011-01-01

With the proliferation of relatively mature health information technology (IT) systems with large numbers of users, it becomes increasingly important to evaluate the effect of these systems on the quality and safety of healthcare. Previous research on the effectiveness of health IT has had mixed results, which may be in part attributable to the evaluation frameworks used. The authors propose a model for evaluation, the Triangle Model, developed for designing studies of quality and safety outcomes of health IT. This model identifies structure-level predictors, including characteristics of: (1) the technology itself; (2) the provider using the technology; (3) the organizational setting; and (4) the patient population. In addition, the model outlines process predictors, including (1) usage of the technology, (2) organizational support for and customization of the technology, and (3) organizational policies and procedures about quality and safety. The Triangle Model specifies the variables to be measured, but is flexible enough to accommodate both qualitative and quantitative approaches to capturing them. The authors illustrate this model, which integrates perspectives from both health services research and biomedical informatics, with examples from evaluations of electronic prescribing, but it is also applicable to a variety of types of health IT systems. PMID:21857023

Biases and power for groups comparison on subjective health measurements.

PubMed

Hamel, Jean-François; Hardouin, Jean-Benoit; Le Neel, Tanguy; Kubis, Gildas; Roquelaure, Yves; Sébille, Véronique

2012-01-01

Subjective health measurements are increasingly used in clinical research, particularly for patient groups comparisons. Two main types of analytical strategies can be used for such data: so-called classical test theory (CTT), relying on observed scores and models coming from Item Response Theory (IRT) relying on a response model relating the items responses to a latent parameter, often called latent trait. Whether IRT or CTT would be the most appropriate method to compare two independent groups of patients on a patient reported outcomes measurement remains unknown and was investigated using simulations. For CTT-based analyses, groups comparison was performed using t-test on the scores. For IRT-based analyses, several methods were compared, according to whether the Rasch model was considered with random effects or with fixed effects, and the group effect was included as a covariate or not. Individual latent traits values were estimated using either a deterministic method or by stochastic approaches. Latent traits were then compared with a t-test. Finally, a two-steps method was performed to compare the latent trait distributions, and a Wald test was performed to test the group effect in the Rasch model including group covariates. The only unbiased IRT-based method was the group covariate Wald's test, performed on the random effects Rasch model. This model displayed the highest observed power, which was similar to the power using the score t-test. These results need to be extended to the case frequently encountered in practice where data are missing and possibly informative.

Evaluation of bull fertility in dairy and beef cattle using cow field data.

PubMed

Berry, D P; Evans, R D; Mc Parland, S

2011-01-01

A successful outcome to a given service is a combination of both male and female fertility. Despite this, most national evaluations for fertility are generally confined to female fertility with evaluations for male fertility commonly undertaken by individual breeding organisations and generally not made public. The objective of this study was to define a pertinent male fertility trait for seasonal calving production systems, and to develop a multiple regression mixed model that may be used to evaluate male fertility at a national level. The data included in the study after editing consisted of 361,412 artificial inseminations from 206,683 cow-lactations (134,911 cows) in 2,843 commercial dairy and beef herds. Fixed effects associated with whether a successful pregnancy ensued (pregnant = 1) or not (pregnant = 0) from a given service were year by month of service, day of the week, days since calving, cow parity, level of calving difficulty experienced, whether or not the previous calving was associated with perinatal mortality, and age of the service bull at the date of insemination. Non-additive genetic effects such as heterosis and recombination loss as well as inbreeding level of the service bull, dam or mating were not associated with a successful pregnancy; there was no difference in pregnancy rate between fresh or frozen semen. Random effects included in the model were the additive genetic effect of the cow, as well as a within lactation and across lactation permanent environmental effect of the cow; pedigree group effects based on cow breed were also included via the relationship matrix. Temporal differences in the AI technician and service bull were also included as random effects. A difference in five percentage units in male fertility was evident between the average effects of different dairy and beef breeds. The correlation between raw pregnancy rates for bulls with more than 100 services (n = 431) and service bull solutions from the mixed model analysis was 0.66. The correlation between the raw pregnancy rates of 288 technicians with more than 100 services and their respective solutions from the mixed model was 0.35. These low to moderate correlations suggest considerable re-ranking among both service bulls and technicians and suggest possibly a benefit of using a statistical model to better estimate the performance of both service bulls and technicians. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Updated stomatal flux and flux-effect models for wheat for quantifying effects of ozone on grain yield, grain mass and protein yield.

PubMed

Grünhage, Ludger; Pleijel, Håkan; Mills, Gina; Bender, Jürgen; Danielsson, Helena; Lehmann, Yvonne; Castell, Jean-Francois; Bethenod, Olivier

2012-06-01

Field measurements and open-top chamber experiments using nine current European winter wheat cultivars provided a data set that was used to revise and improve the parameterisation of a stomatal conductance model for wheat, including a revised value for maximum stomatal conductance and new functions for phenology and soil moisture. For the calculation of stomatal conductance for ozone a diffusivity ratio between O(3) and H(2)O in air of 0.663 was applied, based on a critical review of the literature. By applying the improved parameterisation for stomatal conductance, new flux-effect relationships for grain yield, grain mass and protein yield were developed for use in ozone risk assessments including effects on food security. An example of application of the flux model at the local scale in Germany shows that negative effects of ozone on wheat grain yield were likely each year and on protein yield in most years since the mid 1980s. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatty acids rehabilitated long-term neurodegenerative: like symptoms in olfactory bulbectomized rats.

PubMed

Yehuda, Shlomo; Rabinovitz, Sharon

2015-05-01

Our previous study demonstrated that an olfactory bulbectomy in rats induced short-term, multifaceted, devastating Alzheimer's-like effects, which included cognitive impairment, hyperactivity, hyperthermia, and increased levels of homocysteine and pro-inflammatory cytokines, including IL-17A. In addition, the rats exhibited an increase in the hyperphosphorylation of brain Tau proteins and in the number of neurofibrillary tangles. Here, we examined the long-term effects of the surgery and found that olfactory bulbectomy also rendered the rats to become anemic with brain iron overload. Additionally, a significant reduction in the membrane fluidity index in frontal cortex synaptosomes was found. Treatment with a mixture of n - 3/n - 6 of fatty acids restored the unwanted effect. The beneficial effects of fatty acids are mediated via the effects of fatty acids on the neuronal membrane structure and fluidity. These findings are similar to Alzheimer's symptoms, which suggest this model can be used as an animal model for Alzheimer's disease. We recommend using this model to scan potential new anti-Alzheimer's drugs.

Numerical Study of Suspension Plasma Spraying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrokhpanah, Amirsaman; Coyle, Thomas W.; Mostaghimi, Javad

2017-01-01

A numerical study of suspension plasma spraying is presented in the current work. The liquid suspension jet is replaced with a train of droplets containing the suspension particles injected into the plasma flow. Atomization, evaporation, and melting of different components are considered for droplets and particles as they travel toward the substrate. Effect of different parameters on particle conditions during flight and upon impact on the substrate is investigated. Initially, influence of the torch operating conditions such as inlet flow rate and power is studied. Additionally, effect of injector parameters like injection location, flow rate, and angle is examined. The model used in the current study takes high-temperature gradients and non-continuum effects into account. Moreover, the important effect of change in physical properties of suspension droplets as a result of evaporation is included in the model. These mainly include variations in heat transfer properties and viscosity. Utilizing this improved model, several test cases have been considered to better evaluate the effect of different parameters on the quality of particles during flight and upon impact on the substrate.

Feedbacks between Air Pollution and Weather, Part 1: Effects on Weather

EPA Science Inventory

The meteorological predictions of fully coupled air-quality models running in “feedback” versus “nofeedback” simulations were compared against each other as part of Phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative. The model simulations included a “no-feedback...

Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems

Treesearch

Clinton S. Wright

2013-01-01

Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....

MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF WILDLIFE HABITAT AND POPULATIONS AT THE LANDSCAPE SCALE

EPA Science Inventory

A forest dynamics model (FORCLIM) was linked to a spatial wildlife population model (PATCH) to assess the effects of habitat change in a landscape on selected wildlife species. The habitat changes included forest responses to harvesting, development, and climate change on a west...

A CCIR aeronautical mobile satellite report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davarian, Faramaz; Bishop, Dennis; Rogers, David; Smith, Ernest K.

1989-01-01

Propagation effects in the aeronautical mobile-satellite service differ from those in the fixed-satellite service and other mobile-satellite services because: small antennas are used on aircraft, and the aircraft body may affect the performance of the antenna; high aircraft speeds cause large Doppler spreads; aircraft terminals must accommodate a large dynamic range in transmission and reception; and due to their high speeds, banking maneuvers, and three-dimensional operation, aircraft routinely require exceptionally high integrity of communications, making even short-term propagation effects very important. Data and models specifically required to characterize the path impairments are discussed, which include: tropospheric effects, including gaseous attenuation, cloud and rain attenuation, fog attenuation, refraction and scintillation; surface reflection (multipath) effects; ionospheric effects such as scintillation; and environmental effects (aircraft motion, sea state, land surface type). Aeronautical mobile-satellite systems may operate on a worldwide basis, including propagation paths at low elevation angles. Several measurements of multipath parameters over land and sea were conducted. In some cases, laboratory simulations are used to compare measured data and verify model parameters. The received signals is considered in terms of its possible components: a direct wave subject to atmospheric effects, and a reflected wave, which generally contains mostly a diffuse component.

Principles of pharmacoeconomics and their impact on strategic imperatives of pharmaceutical research and development.

PubMed

Bodrogi, József; Kaló, Zoltán

2010-04-01

The importance of evidence-based health policy is widely acknowledged among health care professionals, patients and politicians. Health care resources available for medical procedures, including pharmaceuticals, are limited all over the world. Economic evaluations help to alleviate the burden of scarce resources by improving the allocative efficiency of health care financing. Reimbursement of new medicines is subject to their cost-effectiveness and affordability in more and more countries. There are three major approaches to calculate the cost-effectiveness of new pharmaceuticals. Economic analyses alongside pivotal clinical trials are often inconclusive due to the suboptimal collection of economic data and protocol-driven costs. The major limitation of observational naturalistic economic evaluations is the selection bias and that they can be conducted only after registration and reimbursement. Economic modelling is routinely used to predict the cost-effectiveness of new pharmaceuticals for reimbursement purposes. Accuracy of cost-effectiveness estimates depends on the quality of input variables; validity of surrogate end points; and appropriateness of modelling assumptions, including model structure, time horizon and sophistication of the model to differentiate clinically and economically meaningful outcomes. These economic evaluation methods are not mutually exclusive; in practice, economic analyses often combine data collection alongside clinical trials or observational studies with modelling. The need for pharmacoeconomic evidence has fundamentally changed the strategic imperatives of research and development (R&D). Therefore, professionals in pharmaceutical R&D have to be familiar with the principles of pharmacoeconomics, including the selection of health policy-relevant comparators, analytical techniques, measurement of health gain by quality-adjusted life-years and strategic pricing of pharmaceuticals.

NASA space cancer risk model-2014: Uncertainties due to qualitative differences in biological effects of HZE particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from exposures to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) — comprised of protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei are an important limitation to long duration space travel. HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation leading to large uncertainties in predicting risks to humans. Our NASA Space Cancer Risk Model-2012 (NSCR-2012) for estimating lifetime cancer risks from space radiation included several new features compared to earlier models from the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) used at NASA. New features of NSCR-2012 included the introduction of NASA defined radiation quality factors based on track structure concepts, a Bayesian analysis of the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF) and its uncertainty, and the use of a never-smoker population to represent astronauts. However, NSCR-2012 did not include estimates of the role of qualitative differences between HZE particles and low LET radiation. In this report we discuss evidence for non-targeted effects increasing cancer risks at space relevant HZE particle absorbed doses in tissue (<0.2 Gy), and for increased tumor lethality due to the propensity for higher rates of metastatic tumors from high LET radiation suggested by animal experiments. The NSCR-2014 model considers how these qualitative differences modify the overall probability distribution functions (PDF) for cancer mortality risk estimates from space radiation. Predictions of NSCR-2014 for International Space Station missions and Mars exploration will be described, and compared to those of our earlier NSCR-2012 model.

Principles of pharmacoeconomics and their impact on strategic imperatives of pharmaceutical research and development

PubMed Central

Bodrogi, József; Kaló, Zoltán

2010-01-01

The importance of evidence-based health policy is widely acknowledged among health care professionals, patients and politicians. Health care resources available for medical procedures, including pharmaceuticals, are limited all over the world. Economic evaluations help to alleviate the burden of scarce resources by improving the allocative efficiency of health care financing. Reimbursement of new medicines is subject to their cost-effectiveness and affordability in more and more countries. There are three major approaches to calculate the cost-effectiveness of new pharmaceuticals. Economic analyses alongside pivotal clinical trials are often inconclusive due to the suboptimal collection of economic data and protocol-driven costs. The major limitation of observational naturalistic economic evaluations is the selection bias and that they can be conducted only after registration and reimbursement. Economic modelling is routinely used to predict the cost-effectiveness of new pharmaceuticals for reimbursement purposes. Accuracy of cost-effectiveness estimates depends on the quality of input variables; validity of surrogate end points; and appropriateness of modelling assumptions, including model structure, time horizon and sophistication of the model to differentiate clinically and economically meaningful outcomes. These economic evaluation methods are not mutually exclusive; in practice, economic analyses often combine data collection alongside clinical trials or observational studies with modelling. The need for pharmacoeconomic evidence has fundamentally changed the strategic imperatives of research and development (R&D). Therefore, professionals in pharmaceutical R&D have to be familiar with the principles of pharmacoeconomics, including the selection of health policy-relevant comparators, analytical techniques, measurement of health gain by quality-adjusted life-years and strategic pricing of pharmaceuticals. PMID:20132213

Hierarchical Bass model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tashiro, Tohru

2014-03-01

We propose a new model about diffusion of a product which includes a memory of how many adopters or advertisements a non-adopter met, where (non-)adopters mean people (not) possessing the product. This effect is lacking in the Bass model. As an application, we utilize the model to fit the iPod sales data, and so the better agreement is obtained than the Bass model.

Hierarchical, parallel computing strategies using component object model for process modelling responses of forest plantations to interacting multiple stresses

Treesearch

J. G. Isebrands; G. E. Host; K. Lenz; G. Wu; H. W. Stech

2000-01-01

Process models are powerful research tools for assessing the effects of multiple environmental stresses on forest plantations. These models are driven by interacting environmental variables and often include genetic factors necessary for assessing forest plantation growth over a range of different site, climate, and silvicultural conditions. However, process models are...

A Third-Order Item Response Theory Model for Modeling the Effects of Domains and Subdomains in Large-Scale Educational Assessment Surveys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rijmen, Frank; Jeon, Minjeong; von Davier, Matthias; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

2014-01-01

Second-order item response theory models have been used for assessments consisting of several domains, such as content areas. We extend the second-order model to a third-order model for assessments that include subdomains nested in domains. Using a graphical model framework, it is shown how the model does not suffer from the curse of…

Maslow and Motherboards: Taking a Hierarchical View of Technology Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Doug

2003-01-01

Presents a planning model for educational uses of technology that is based on Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Topics include established infrastructure; effective administration; extensive resources; enhanced teaching, including creating distance learning opportunities; empowered students, including evaluation methods and information literacy skills;…

The effect of seat position on manual wheelchair propulsion biomechanics: a quasi-static model-based approach.

PubMed

Richter, W M

2001-12-01

The position of the seat relative to the rear wheels is generally adjusted to modify the rearward stability of the wheelchair. Recent studies have shown that seat position also has an effect on propulsion biomechanics and suggest that seat position can be optimized. A quasi-static wheelchair propulsion model was developed to investigate the mechanism by which seat position affects propulsion biomechanics. Inputs to the model include the length of the user's arm segments, the position of the user's shoulder, the size of handrim used and the force profile on the handrim. Outputs from the model include joint kinematics, joint torques, push angle, and push frequency. Handrim force profile was determined by averaging the force profile of five wheelchair users. Force profiles were measured using the SMARTWheel. The effect of seat position on push angle was found to be directly affected by the length of the position vector from the hub of the wheel to the shoulder and indirectly affected by the angular orientation of the vector. Decreasing hub to shoulder length was found to increase push angle, decrease push frequency, decrease shoulder torque and increase elbow extension torque. It is suggested that future research investigating the role of seat position on propulsion biomechanics include both the kinematics and kinetics of the upper extremity.