Prophylaxis of cervical cancer and related cervical disease: a review of the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against oncogenic HPV types.

PubMed

Armstrong, Edward P

2010-04-01

Vaccines have demonstrated cost-effectiveness in managed care through the prevention of disease. As new vaccines for previously untargeted conditions are developed, pharmacoeconomic modeling is becoming even more critical for the quantification of value in the health care industry. Two recently developed vaccines aimed at prevention of infection from human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 have proven to be highly efficacious. HPV 16 and 18 are the 2 most common oncogenic strains of HPV and are responsible for 70% of cervical cancer cases worldwide. Persistent infection with an oncogenic HPV type is a known cause of cervical cancer. Therefore, prevention of cervical cancer via HPV vaccination may have a significant financial impact. To qualitatively review existing mathematical models of the cost effectiveness of prophylactic HPV vaccination, with an emphasis on the impact on managed care in the United States. Mathematical models of the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination based on U.S. data were reviewed. A search of the PubMed database was conducted using the search terms "HPV," "vaccine," and "cost-effectiveness" for articles published before February 22, 2010. Studies employing mathematical models to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in healthy subjects from the United States were included. Models based on data or populations from outside of the United States were excluded. Outcomes were measured with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), typically in units of quality-adjusted life expectancy (quality-adjusted life years [QALYs] gained). Most studies included in this review modeled vaccination of a cohort or population of females aged 12 years. Assessment of catch-up vaccination in females (through aged 24 to 26 years) was included in a couple of reports. One study examined vaccination in older females (aged 35, 40, and 45 years). Models typically compared a strategy of HPV vaccination with the current practice of cervical screening (sampling of cervical cells for disease detection) alone. 11 studies of cost-effectiveness modeling of HPV vaccination were included in this review. A direct quantitative comparison of model results is challenging due to the utilization of different model types as well as differences in variables selected within the same model type. Each model produced a range of cost-effectiveness ratios, dependent on variables included in sensitivity analyses and model assumptions. Sensitivity analyses revealed the lowest ICER to be $997 per QALY gained and the highest ICER to be $12,749,000 per QALY gained. This enormous range highlights the need to clarify what model assumptions are being made. The 2 studies that included modeling of catch-up vaccination scenarios in females older than age 12 years also produced a wide range of ICERs. One study, assuming 90% efficacy, 100% coverage, and lifelong immunity, modeled catch-up vaccination in all females aged 12 to 24 years and yielded an ICER of $4,666 per QALY. If the duration of protection was limited to 10 years, then costs increased to $21,121 per QALY. The other study modeling catch-up HPV vaccination assumed 100% efficacy, 75% coverage, and lifelong immunity. ICERs in this study for outcomes relating to cervical cancer ranged from $43,600 per QALY in the base model vaccinating only 12 year olds with no catch-up vaccination, to $152,700 in a model including catch-up vaccination through age 26 years. Although catch-up to age 21 years resulted in a cost of $120,400 per QALY, the ICER decreased to $101,300 per QALY if model outcomes related to prevention of genital warts were also included. The lone study modeling vaccination in women aged 35 to 45 years resulted in an ICER range of $116,950 to $272,350 per QALY when compared with annual and biennial cytological screening. Cost-effectiveness was defined as an ICER at or below $100,000 per QALY gained. All models of female adolescent vaccination were able to produce vaccination strategies that would be cost-effective according to this definition in addition to many strategies that would be cost-prohibitive. Variables influential in determining cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination included the frequency of accompanying cervical screening, the age at which screening is initiated, vaccination efficacy, duration of vaccine protection, and the age range of females to be vaccinated. The actual effectiveness of HPV vaccination in the female population will also depend on levels of vaccine uptake or coverage and compliance in completing all vaccine doses. Clinical studies have shown HPV vaccination to be highly efficacious and potentially lifesaving if administered to females naive or unexposed to vaccine HPV types. Modeling studies have also shown that HPV vaccination can be cost-effective with an ICER of $100,000 or less per QALY gained if administered to females aged 12 years in the context of cervical screening intervals typically greater than 1 year. Catch-up vaccination through 21 years of age increases the cost per QALY to more than $100,000. Until real-world coverage rates increase, cost-effectiveness modeling of HPV vaccination underestimates the actual cost per QALY.

Age at menarche in urban Argentinian girls: association with biological and socioeconomic factors.

PubMed

Orden, Alicia B; Vericat, Agustina; Apezteguía, Maria C

2011-01-01

Age at menarche is regarded as a sensitive indicator of physical, biological, and psychosocial environment. The aim of this study was to determine the age at menarche and its association with biological and socioeconomic factors in girls from Santa Rosa (La Pampa, Argentina). An observational cross-sectional study was carried out on 1,221 schoolgirls aged 9-15 years. Menarche data were obtained by the status-quo method. Height, sitting height, weight, arm circumference, tricipital and subscapular skinfolds were measured. We also calculated body mass index, measures of body composition and proportions, and fat distribution. To assess socioeconomic factors, parents completed a self-administered questionnaire about their occupation and education, family size, household, and other family characteristics. The median age at menarche - estimated by the logit method--was 12.84 years (95% CI: 12.71, 12.97). Compared with their premenarcheal age peers, postmenarcheal girls had greater anthropometric dimensions through age 12. After this age, only height was higher in the latter group. Data were processed by fitting two logistic regressions, both including age. The first model included anthropometric variables and birth weight, while the second model included the socioeconomic variables. The significant variables derived from each model were incorporated into a new regression: height, sitting height ratio (first model), and maternal education (second model). These three variables remained significantly associated with menarche. The results suggest a relationship between linear growth and menarche and agree with those found in other populations where the advancement of menarche is associated with improved living conditions. In relatively uniform urban contexts, maternal education may be a good proxy for the standard of living.

Aging Well on the Autism Spectrum: An Examination of the Dominant Model of Successful Aging.

PubMed

Hwang, Ye In; Foley, Kitty-Rose; Trollor, Julian N

2018-05-02

There is a gap in our knowledge of aging with autism. The present study examined the applicability of the popular gerontology concept of "aging well" to autistic adults. Using survey data, a model of "aging well" was operationalised and applied to 92 autistic adults and 60 controls. A very small proportion (3.3%) of autistic adults were found to be aging well. Significantly less autistic adults were "maintaining physical and cognitive functioning" and "actively engaging with life" in comparison to controls. Whilst important differences in health and functioning status were found, the current dominant model of "aging well" is limited for examining autistic individuals. Suggested adjustments include development of a broader, more flexible and strengths -based model.

Biological Aging - Criteria for Modeling and a New Mechanistic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pletcher, Scott D.; Neuhauser, Claudia

To stimulate interaction and collaboration across scientific fields, we introduce a minimum set of biological criteria that theoretical models of aging should satisfy. We review results of several recent experiments that examined changes in age-specific mortality rates caused by genetic and environmental manipulation. The empirical data from these experiments is then used to test mathematical models of aging from several different disciplines, including molecular biology, reliability theory, physics, and evolutionary biology/population genetics. We find that none of the current models are consistent with all of the published experimental findings. To provide an example of how our criteria might be applied in practice, we develop a new conceptual model of aging that is consistent with our observations.

Socioeconomic disadvantage across the life-course and oral health in older age: findings from a longitudinal study of older British men.

PubMed

Ramsay, Sheena E; Papachristou, Efstathios; Watt, Richard G; Lennon, Lucy T; Papacosta, A Olia; Whincup, Peter H; Wannamethee, S Goya

2018-04-19

The influence of life-course socioeconomic disadvantage on oral health at older ages is not well-established. We examined the influence of socioeconomic factors in childhood, middle-age and older age on oral health at older ages, and tested conceptual life-course models (sensitive period, accumulation of risk, social mobility) to determine which best described observed associations. A representative cohort of British men aged 71-92 in 2010-12 included socioeconomic factors in childhood, middle-age and older age. Oral health assessment at 71-92 years (n = 1622) included tooth count, periodontal disease and self-rated oral health (excellent/good, fair/poor) (n = 2147). Life-course models (adjusted for age and town of residence) were compared with a saturated model using Likelihood-ratio tests. Socioeconomic disadvantage in childhood, middle-age and older age was associated with complete tooth loss at 71-92 years-age and town adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) were 1.39 (1.02-1.90), 2.26 (1.70-3.01), 1.83 (1.35-2.49), respectively. Socioeconomic disadvantage in childhood and middle-age was associated with poor self-rated oral health; adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) were 1.48 (1.19-1.85) and 1.45 (1.18-1.78), respectively. A sensitive period for socioeconomic disadvantage in middle-age provided the best model fit for tooth loss, while accumulation of risk model was the strongest for poor self-rated oral health. None of the life-course models were significant for periodontal disease measures. Socioeconomic disadvantage in middle-age has a particularly strong influence on tooth loss in older age. Poor self-rated oral health in older age is influenced by socioeconomic disadvantage across the life-course. Addressing socioeconomic factors in middle and older ages are likely to be important for better oral health in later life.

Cognitive and behavioral evaluation of nutritional interventions in rodent models of brain aging and dementia

PubMed Central

Wahl, Devin; Coogan, Sean CP; Solon-Biet, Samantha M; de Cabo, Rafael; Haran, James B; Raubenheimer, David; Cogger, Victoria C; Mattson, Mark P; Simpson, Stephen J; Le Couteur, David G

2017-01-01

Evaluation of behavior and cognition in rodent models underpins mechanistic and interventional studies of brain aging and neurodegenerative diseases, especially dementia. Commonly used tests include Morris water maze, Barnes maze, object recognition, fear conditioning, radial arm water maze, and Y maze. Each of these tests reflects some aspects of human memory including episodic memory, recognition memory, semantic memory, spatial memory, and emotional memory. Although most interventional studies in rodent models of dementia have focused on pharmacological agents, there are an increasing number of studies that have evaluated nutritional interventions including caloric restriction, intermittent fasting, and manipulation of macronutrients. Dietary interventions have been shown to influence various cognitive and behavioral tests in rodents indicating that nutrition can influence brain aging and possibly neurodegeneration. PMID:28932108

Generalized fish life-cycle poplulation model and computer program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeAngelis, D. L.; Van Winkle, W.; Christensen, S. W.

1978-03-01

A generalized fish life-cycle population model and computer program have been prepared to evaluate the long-term effect of changes in mortality in age class 0. The general question concerns what happens to a fishery when density-independent sources of mortality are introduced that act on age class 0, particularly entrainment and impingement at power plants. This paper discusses the model formulation and computer program, including sample results. The population model consists of a system of difference equations involving age-dependent fecundity and survival. The fecundity for each age class is assumed to be a function of both the fraction of females sexuallymore » mature and the weight of females as they enter each age class. Natural mortality for age classes 1 and older is assumed to be independent of population size. Fishing mortality is assumed to vary with the number and weight of fish available to the fishery. Age class 0 is divided into six life stages. The probability of survival for age class 0 is estimated considering both density-independent mortality (natural and power plant) and density-dependent mortality for each life stage. Two types of density-dependent mortality are included. These are cannibalism of each life stage by older age classes and intra-life-stage competition.« less

Age Effects on the Employability--Career Success Relationship

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van der Heijden, Beatrice I. J. M.; de Lange, Annet H.; Demerouti, Evangelia; Van der Heijde, Claudia M.

2009-01-01

This study investigated the similarity of the factor structure for self-reported versus supervisor-rated employability for two age groups of workers, and then validated a career success enhancing model of employability across the two age groups. The results confirmed a two-factor model including self-reported and supervisor-rated employability as…

The prognostic role of body mass index on mortality amongst the middle-aged and elderly: a competing risk analysis.

PubMed

Ghaem Maralani, Haleh; Tai, Bee Choo; Wong, Tien Y; Tai, E Shyong; Li, Jialiang; Wang, Jie Jin; Mitchell, Paul

2014-01-01

To determine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) including its 5-year changes and mortality, and compare the results obtained using Cox and competing risks models. Our study subjects included 2216 persons aged ≥49 years who participated in the Blue Mountains Eye Study, Australia between 1992 and 1994, and returned for further follow-up examinations between 1997 and 1999. We examined the relationship between BMI and mortality using cubic spline. The Cox and competing risks models were used to assess the associations between baseline BMI and its 5-year changes with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Amongst subjects aged ≤70 years, the relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality was U-shaped. For those aged >70 years, an L-shaped relationship was seen with no elevation in risk amongst the overweight/obese. Based on the competing risks model, obesity at baseline was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular death and reduction in BMI at 5-year was linked to an increase risk of cancer death amongst those aged ≤70 years. The cause-specific Cox model showed that reduction in BMI at 5-year was associated with cancer-death regardless of age, and with cardiovascular deaths among subjects aged ≤70 years. Cox regression model showed larger magnitude of effect with wider confidence interval as compared with competing risks model. Conditions associated with obesity are more likely to affect mortality among subjects aged ≤70 years, but not among those aged over 70 years. Cox model shows larger magnitude of effect in comparison with competing risks model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of temperature and diet on age grading and population age structure determination in Drosophila.

PubMed

Aw, Wen C; Ballard, J William O

2013-10-01

The age structure of natural population is of interest in physiological, life history and ecological studies but it is often difficult to determine. One methodological problem is that samples may need to be invasively sampled preventing subsequent taxonomic curation. A second problem is that it can be very expensive to accurately determine the age structure of given population because large sample sizes are often necessary. In this study, we test the effects of temperature (17 °C, 23 °C and 26 °C) and diet (standard cornmeal and low calorie diet) on the accuracy of the non-invasive, inexpensive and high throughput near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technique to determine the age of Drosophila flies. Composite and simplified calibration models were developed for each sex. Independent sets for each temperature and diet treatments with flies not involved in calibration model were then used to validate the accuracy of the calibration models. The composite NIRS calibration model was generated by including flies reared under all temperatures and diets. This approach permits rapid age measurement and age structure determination in large population of flies as less than or equal to 9 days, or more than 9 days old with 85-97% and 64-99% accuracy, respectively. The simplified calibration models were generated by including flies reared at 23 °C on standard diet. Low accuracy rates were observed when simplified calibration models were used to identify (a) Drosophila reared at 17 °C and 26 °C and (b) 23 °C with low calorie diet. These results strongly suggest that appropriate calibration models need to be developed in the laboratory before this technique can be reliably used in field. These calibration models should include the major environmental variables that change across space and time in the particular natural population to be studied. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Personality and diabetes mellitus incidence in a national sample.

PubMed

Cukić, Iva; Weiss, Alexander

2014-09-01

To test whether personality traits were prospectively associated with type 2 diabetes incidence. The sample (n=6798) was derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiological Follow-up Study cohort. We fit four logistic regression models to test whether neuroticism, extraversion, openness to experience, or the Type A behavior pattern predicted type 2 diabetes incidence. Model 1 included sex, age, and race/ethnicity. Model 2 added personality traits, Model 3 added depressive symptoms, and Model 4 added body mass index (BMI), hypertension, and cigarette smoking status as predictors. In Model 1 age was associated with increased risk of diabetes (2% per year); being black as opposed to white was associated with a three-fold increase in risk. In Model 2 age and being black were still significant and extraversion was associated with decreased risk (17% per standard deviation [SD]). In Model 3 age, being black, and extraversion were still significant. In addition, neuroticism was associated with decreased risk (26% per SD) and depressive symptoms were associated with increased risk (28% per SD). In Model 4 age, being black, neuroticism, and depressive symptoms were still significant. BMI was associated with increased risk (14% per SD) and extraversion was no longer significant. Higher neuroticism was associated with reduced type 2 diabetes risk even after controlling for race/ethnicity, age, depressive symptoms, and BMI. Extraversion and Type A behavior were not significant after including covariates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mountaintop island age determines species richness of boreal mammals in the American Southwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frey, J.K.; Bogan, M.A.; Yates, Terry L.

2007-01-01

Models that describe the mechanisms responsible for insular patterns of species richness include the equilibrium theory of island biogeography and the nonequilibrium vicariance model. The relative importance of dispersal or vicariance in structuring insular distribution patterns can be inferred from these models. Predictions of the alternative models were tested for boreal mammals in the American Southwest. Age of mountaintop islands of boreal habitat was determined by constructing a geographic cladogram based on characteristics of intervening valley barriers. Other independent variables included area and isolation of mountaintop islands. Island age was the most important predictor of species richness. In contrast with previous studies of species richness patterns in this system, these results supported the nonequilibrium vicariance model, which indicates that vicariance has been the primary determinant of species distribution patterns in this system.

Defining Successful Aging: A Tangible or Elusive Concept?

PubMed Central

Martin, Peter; Kelly, Norene; Kahana, Boaz; Kahana, Eva; Willcox, Bradley J.; Willcox, D. Craig; Poon, Leonard W.

2015-01-01

Purpose of the Study: Everyone wants to age successfully; however, the definition and criteria of successful aging remain vague for laypersons, researchers, and policymakers in spite of decades of research on the topic. This paper highlights work of scholars who made significant theoretical contributions to the topic. Design and Methods: A thorough review and evaluation of the literature on successful aging was undertaken. Results: Our review includes early gerontological definitions of successful aging and related concepts. Historical perspectives reach back to philosophical and religious texts, and more recent approaches have focused on both process- and outcome-oriented models of successful aging. We elaborate on Baltes and Baltes’ theory of selective optimization with compensation [Baltes, P. B., & Baltes, M. M. (1990a). Psychological perspectives on successful aging: The model of selective optimization with compensation. In P. B. Baltes & M. M. Baltes (Eds.), Successful aging: Perspectives from the behavioral sciences (pp. 1–34). United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press], Kahana and Kahana’s preventive and corrective proactivity model [Kahana, E., & Kahana, B. (1996). Conceptual and empirical advances in understanding aging well through proactive adaptation. In V. Bengtson (Ed.), Adulthood and aging: Research on continuities and discontinuities (pp. 18–40). New York: Springer], and Rowe and Kahn’s model of successful aging [Rowe, J. W., & Kahn, R. L. (1998). Successful aging. New York: Pantheon Books], outlining their commonalities and differences. Additional views on successful aging emphasize subjective versus objective perceptions of successful aging and relate successful aging to studies on healthy and exceptional longevity. Implications: Additional theoretical work is needed to better understand successful aging, including the way it can encompass disability and death and dying. The extent of rapid social and technological change influencing views on successful aging also deserves more consideration. PMID:24840916

Expanding the Circle of Knowledge: Reconceptualizing Successful Aging Among North American Older Indigenous Peoples.

PubMed

Pace, Jessica E; Grenier, Amanda

2017-03-01

Indigenous older peoples' voices and experiences remain largely absent in the dominant models and critical scholarship on aging and late life. This article examines the relevance of the model of successful aging for Indigenous peoples in North America. This article presents the results of a review of the published conceptual literature on successful aging among Indigenous peoples. Our intent was to explore the current state of the field of successful aging among Indigenous peoples and suggest dimensions that may be more reflective of Indigenous voices and experiences that leads to a more inclusive model of successful aging. Based on our review, we suggest four dimensions that may broaden understandings of successful aging to be more inclusive of Indigenous older people: health and wellness, empowerment and resilience, engagement and behavior, and connectedness. Our review suggests that Indigenous peoples' voices and experiences are beginning to be included in academic literature on successful aging. However, we suggest that understandings of successful aging be broadened based on our summative findings and a process of community involvement. Such processes can lead to the development of models that are more inclusive to a wide range of older people, including Indigenous older peoples. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Fruit Fly Drosophila melanogaster as a Model for Aging Research.

PubMed

Brandt, Annely; Vilcinskas, Andreas

2013-01-01

: Average human life expectancy is increasing and so is the impact on society of aging and age-related diseases. Here we highlight recent advances in the diverse and multidisciplinary field of aging research, focusing on the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, an excellent model system in which to dissect the genetic and molecular basis of the aging processes. The conservation of human disease genes in D. melanogaster allows the functional analysis of orthologues implicated in human aging and age-related diseases. D. melanogaster models have been developed for a variety of age-related processes and disorders, including stem cell decline, Alzheimer's disease, and cardiovascular deterioration. Understanding the detailed molecular events involved in normal aging and age-related diseases could facilitate the development of strategies and treatments that reduce their impact, thus improving human health and increasing longevity.

A Hydrostratigraphic Model and Alternatives for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Unit 97: Yucca Flat-Climax Mine, Lincoln and Nye Counties, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geotechnical Sciences Group Bechtel Nevada

2006-01-01

A new three-dimensional hydrostratigraphic framework model for the Yucca Flat-Climax Mine Corrective Action Unit was completed in 2005. The model area includes Yucca Flat and Climax Mine, former nuclear testing areas at the Nevada Test Site, and proximal areas. The model area is approximately 1,250 square kilometers in size and is geologically complex. Yucca Flat is a topographically closed basin typical of many valleys in the Basin and Range province. Faulted and tilted blocks of Tertiary-age volcanic rocks and underlying Proterozoic and Paleozoic sedimentary rocks form low ranges around the structural basin. During the Cretaceous Period a granitic intrusive wasmore » emplaced at the north end of Yucca Flat. A diverse set of geological and geophysical data collected over the past 50 years was used to develop a structural model and hydrostratigraphic system for the basin. These were integrated using EarthVision? software to develop the 3-dimensional hydrostratigraphic framework model. Fifty-six stratigraphic units in the model area were grouped into 25 hydrostratigraphic units based on each unit's propensity toward aquifer or aquitard characteristics. The authors organized the alluvial section into 3 hydrostratigraphic units including 2 aquifers and 1 confining unit. The volcanic units in the model area are organized into 13 hydrostratigraphic units that include 8 aquifers and 5 confining units. The underlying pre-Tertiary rocks are divided into 7 hydrostratigraphic units, including 3 aquifers and 4 confining units. Other units include 1 Tertiary-age sedimentary confining unit and 1 Mesozoic-age granitic confining unit. The model depicts the thickness, extent, and geometric relationships of these hydrostratigraphic units (''layers'' in the model) along with the major structural features (i.e., faults). The model incorporates 178 high-angle normal faults of Tertiary age and 2 low-angle thrust faults of Mesozoic age. The complexity of the model area and the non-uniqueness of some of the interpretations incorporated into the base model made it necessary to formulate alternative interpretations for some of the major features in the model. Five of these alternatives were developed so they could be modeled in the same fashion as the base model. This work was done for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office in support of the Underground Test Area subproject of the Environmental Restoration Project.« less

The CREp program, a fully parameterizable program to compute exposure ages (3He, 10Be)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, L.; Blard, P. H.; Lave, J.; Delunel, R.; Balco, G.

2015-12-01

Over the last decades, cosmogenic exposure dating permitted major advances in Earth surface sciences, and particularly in paleoclimatology. Yet, exposure age calculation is a dense procedure. It requires numerous choices of parameterization and the use of an appropriate production rate. Nowadays, Earth surface scientists may either calculate exposure ages on their own or use the available programs. However, these programs do not offer the possibility to include all the most recent advances in Cosmic Ray Exposure (CRE) dating. Notably, they do not propose the most recent production rate datasets and they only offer few possibilities to test the impact of the atmosphere model and the geomagnetic model on the computed ages. We present the CREp program, a Matlab © code that computes CRE ages for 3He and 10Be over the last 2 million years. The CREp program includes the scaling models of Lal-Stone in the "Lal modified" version (Balco et al., 2008; Lal, 1991; Stone, 2000) and the LSD model (Lifton et al., 2014). For any of these models, CREP allows choosing between the ERA-40 atmosphere model (Uppala et al., 2005) and the standard atmosphere (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1976). Regarding the geomagnetic database, users can opt for one of the three proposed datasets: Muscheler et al. 2005, GLOPIS-75 (Laj et al. 2004) and the geomagnetic framework proposed in the LSD model (Lifton et al., 2014). They may also import their own geomagnetic database. Importantly, the reference production rate can be chosen among a large variety of possibilities. We made an effort to propose a wide and homogenous calibration database in order to promote the use of local calibration rates: CREp includes all the calibration data published until July 2015 and will be able to access an updated online database including all the newly published production rates. This is crucial for improving the ages accuracy. Users may also choose a global production rate or use their own data to either calibrate a production rate or directly input a Sea Level High Latitude value. The program is fast to calculate a large number of ages and to export the final density probability function associated with each age into an Excel © spreadsheet format.

Aging in Place vs. Relocation for Older Adults with a Neurocognitive Disorder: Applications of Wiseman’s Behavioral Model

PubMed Central

Kaplan, Daniel; Andersen, Troy; Lehning, Amanda; Perry, Tam Elisabeth

2015-01-01

Some older adults are more vulnerable to housing concerns due to physical and cognitive challenges, including those with a neurocognitive disorder who need extensive support. Environmental gerontology frameworks, including Wiseman’s (1980) Behavioral Model of Elderly Migration, have informed scholarship on aging in place and relocation. It remains unclear, however, the extent to which this conceptual work informs services and supports for older adults, and the Wiseman model has not been applied to people with a neurocognitive disorder. Understanding Wiseman’s model, including considerations for working with families confronting a neurocognitive disorder, can help practitioners ensure that older clients live in settings that best meet their wants and needs. PMID:26016530

Breeding value accuracy estimates for growth traits using random regression and multi-trait models in Nelore cattle.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Baldi, F; Mercadante, M E Z; Lobo, R B; Pereira, R J; Albuquerque, L G

2011-06-28

We quantified the potential increase in accuracy of expected breeding value for weights of Nelore cattle, from birth to mature age, using multi-trait and random regression models on Legendre polynomials and B-spline functions. A total of 87,712 weight records from 8144 females were used, recorded every three months from birth to mature age from the Nelore Brazil Program. For random regression analyses, all female weight records from birth to eight years of age (data set I) were considered. From this general data set, a subset was created (data set II), which included only nine weight records: at birth, weaning, 365 and 550 days of age, and 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 years of age. Data set II was analyzed using random regression and multi-trait models. The model of analysis included the contemporary group as fixed effects and age of dam as a linear and quadratic covariable. In the random regression analyses, average growth trends were modeled using a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of age. Residual variances were modeled by a step function with five classes. Legendre polynomials of fourth and sixth order were utilized to model the direct genetic and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, while third-order Legendre polynomials were considered for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. Quadratic polynomials were applied to model all random effects in random regression models on B-spline functions. Direct genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using three segments or five coefficients, and genetic maternal and maternal permanent environmental effects were modeled with one segment or three coefficients in the random regression models on B-spline functions. For both data sets (I and II), animals ranked differently according to expected breeding value obtained by random regression or multi-trait models. With random regression models, the highest gains in accuracy were obtained at ages with a low number of weight records. The results indicate that random regression models provide more accurate expected breeding values than the traditionally finite multi-trait models. Thus, higher genetic responses are expected for beef cattle growth traits by replacing a multi-trait model with random regression models for genetic evaluation. B-spline functions could be applied as an alternative to Legendre polynomials to model covariance functions for weights from birth to mature age.

Galactic chemical evolution and nucleocosmochronology - Standard model with terminated infall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayton, D. D.

1984-01-01

Some exactly soluble families of models for the chemical evolution of the Galaxy are presented. The parameters considered include gas mass, the age-metallicity relation, the star mass vs. metallicity, the age distribution, and the mean age of dwarfs. A short BASIC program for calculating these parameters is given. The calculation of metallicity gradients, nuclear cosmochronology, and extinct radioactivities is addressed. An especially simple, mathematically linear model is recommended as a standard model of galaxies with truncated infall due to its internal consistency and compact display of the physical effects of the parameters.

Shared molecular and cellular mechanisms of premature ageing and ageing-associated diseases.

PubMed

Kubben, Nard; Misteli, Tom

2017-10-01

Ageing is the predominant risk factor for many common diseases. Human premature ageing diseases are powerful model systems to identify and characterize cellular mechanisms that underpin physiological ageing. Their study also leads to a better understanding of the causes, drivers and potential therapeutic strategies of common diseases associated with ageing, including neurological disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Using the rare premature ageing disorder Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome as a paradigm, we discuss here the shared mechanisms between premature ageing and ageing-associated diseases, including defects in genetic, epigenetic and metabolic pathways; mitochondrial and protein homeostasis; cell cycle; and stem cell-regenerative capacity.

Risk Factors in Preschool Children for Predicting Asthma During the Preschool Age and the Early School Age: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Bao, Yixia; Chen, Zhimin; Liu, Enmei; Xiang, Li; Zhao, Deyu; Hong, Jianguo

2017-11-18

The aim of this study was to identify risk factors of asthma among children < 6 years old (preschool age) for predicting asthma during the preschool age and early school age (≤ 10 years of age). MEDLINE, Cochrane, EMBASE, and Google Scholar databases were searched until June 30, 2017. Prospective or retrospective cohort and case-control studies were included. Studies had to have evaluated risk factors or a predictive model for developing asthma in children ≤ 6 years of age or persistent asthma in early school age. A total of 17 studies were included in the analysis. Factors associated with developing asthma in children ≤ 10 years of age (both pre-school and early school age) included male gender (pooled OR = 1.70, P < 0.001), atopic dermatitis (pooled OR = 2.02, P < 0.001), a family history of asthma (pooled OR = 2.20, P < 0.001), and serum IgE levels ≥ 60 kU/l or having specific IgE (pooled OR = 2.36, P < 0.001). A history of exposure to smoke or wheezing was also associated with persistent asthma in early school age (pooled OR = 1.51, P = 0.030 and pooled OR = 2.59, P < 0.001, respectively). In general, asthma predictive models (e.g., API, PIAMA, PAPS) had relatively low sensitivity (range, 21% to 71.4%) but high specificity (range, 69% to 98%). The study found that male gender, exposure to smoke, atopic dermatitis, family history of asthma, history of wheezing, and serum IgE level ≥ 60 kU/l or having specific IgE were significantly associated with developing asthma by either preschool or early school age. Asthma predictive models can be developed by those risk factors.

Dynamic stiffness of chemically and physically ageing rubber vibration isolators in the audible frequency range. Part 1: constitutive equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kari, Leif

2017-09-01

The constitutive equations of chemically and physically ageing rubber in the audible frequency range are modelled as a function of ageing temperature, ageing time, actual temperature, time and frequency. The constitutive equations are derived by assuming nearly incompressible material with elastic spherical response and viscoelastic deviatoric response, using Mittag-Leffler relaxation function of fractional derivative type, the main advantage being the minimum material parameters needed to successfully fit experimental data over a broad frequency range. The material is furthermore assumed essentially entropic and thermo-mechanically simple while using a modified William-Landel-Ferry shift function to take into account temperature dependence and physical ageing, with fractional free volume evolution modelled by a nonlinear, fractional differential equation with relaxation time identical to that of the stress response and related to the fractional free volume by Doolittle equation. Physical ageing is a reversible ageing process, including trapping and freeing of polymer chain ends, polymer chain reorganizations and free volume changes. In contrast, chemical ageing is an irreversible process, mainly attributed to oxygen reaction with polymer network either damaging the network by scission or reformation of new polymer links. The chemical ageing is modelled by inner variables that are determined by inner fractional evolution equations. Finally, the model parameters are fitted to measurements results of natural rubber over a broad audible frequency range, and various parameter studies are performed including comparison with results obtained by ordinary, non-fractional ageing evolution differential equations.

Permethrin Exposure Dosimetry: Biomarkers and Modifiable Factors

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-08-01

metabolite; (F = 16.16, p < 0.0001). This association holds after controlling for known confounders including sex , age, time that uniform was worn...and metabolite concentrations were examined via linear mixed modeling. All models were adjusted for creatinine, age, sex , days in BCT, number of

Random glucose is useful for individual prediction of type 2 diabetes: results of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP).

PubMed

Kowall, Bernd; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Giani, Guido; Schipf, Sabine; Baumeister, Sebastian; Wallaschofski, Henri; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry

2013-04-01

Random glucose is widely used in routine clinical practice. We investigated whether this non-standardized glycemic measure is useful for individual diabetes prediction. The Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP), a population-based cohort study in north-east Germany, included 3107 diabetes-free persons aged 31-81 years at baseline in 1997-2001. 2475 persons participated at 5-year follow-up and gave self-reports of incident diabetes. For the total sample and for subjects aged ≥50 years, statistical properties of prediction models with and without random glucose were compared. A basic model (including age, sex, diabetes of parents, hypertension and waist circumference) and a comprehensive model (additionally including various lifestyle variables and blood parameters, but not HbA1c) performed statistically significantly better after adding random glucose (e.g., the area under the receiver-operating curve (AROC) increased from 0.824 to 0.856 after adding random glucose to the comprehensive model in the total sample). Likewise, adding random glucose to prediction models which included HbA1c led to significant improvements of predictive ability (e.g., for subjects ≥50 years, AROC increased from 0.824 to 0.849 after adding random glucose to the comprehensive model+HbA1c). Random glucose is useful for individual diabetes prediction, and improves prediction models including HbA1c. Copyright © 2012 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The hierarchical structure of childhood personality in five countries: continuity from early childhood to early adolescence.

PubMed

Tackett, Jennifer L; Slobodskaya, Helena R; Mar, Raymond A; Deal, James; Halverson, Charles F; Baker, Spencer R; Pavlopoulos, Vassilis; Besevegis, Elias

2012-08-01

Childhood personality is a rapidly growing area of investigation within individual differences research. One understudied topic is the universality of the hierarchical structure of childhood personality. In the present investigation, parents rated the personality characteristics of 3,751 children from 5 countries and 4 age groups. The hierarchical structure of childhood personality was examined for 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-factor models across country (Canada, China, Greece, Russia, and the United States) and age group (3-5, 6-8, 9-11, and 12-14 years of age). Many similarities were noted across both country and age. The Five-Factor Model was salient beginning in early childhood (ages 3-5). Deviations across groups and from adult findings are noted, including the prominent role of antagonism in childhood personality and the high covariation between Conscientiousness and intellect. Future directions, including the need for more explicit attempts to merge temperament and personality models, are discussed. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Personality © 2011, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeling Chagas Disease at Population Level to Explain Venezuela's Real Data

PubMed Central

González-Parra, Gilberto; Chen-Charpentier, Benito M.; Bermúdez, Moises

2015-01-01

Objectives In this paper we present an age-structured epidemiological model for Chagas disease. This model includes the interactions between human and vector populations that transmit Chagas disease. Methods The human population is divided into age groups since the proportion of infected individuals in this population changes with age as shown by real prevalence data. Moreover, the age-structured model allows more accurate information regarding the prevalence, which can help to design more specific control programs. We apply this proposed model to data from the country of Venezuela for two periods, 1961–1971, and 1961–1991 taking into account real demographic data for these periods. Results Numerical computer simulations are presented to show the suitability of the age-structured model to explain the real data regarding prevalence of Chagas disease in each of the age groups. In addition, a numerical simulation varying the death rate of the vector is done to illustrate prevention and control strategies against Chagas disease. Conclusion The proposed model can be used to determine the effect of control strategies in different age groups. PMID:26929912

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations.

PubMed

Moore, Jacob L; Lipcius, Romuald N; Puckett, Brandon; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2016-10-01

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Sexual Quality of Life and Aging: A Prospective Study of a Nationally Representative Sample

PubMed Central

Forbes, Miriam K.; Eaton, Nicholas R.; Krueger, Robert F.

2016-01-01

Unlike other life domains, sexual quality of life (SQoL) has a negative relationship with age. This study disentangled the effect of age in this relationship from confounding sociocultural influences (e.g., the period of time in which data were collected, and cohort differences), and aimed to understand the roles of other sexual domains (i.e., frequency, perceived control, thought and effort invested in sex, and number of sexual partners). We analyzed data from the longitudinal Midlife in the United States study (n = 6,278; age range 20–93), which were collected between 1995 and 2013. Repeated measures linear mixed-effects models showed that age was the most robust time-related predictor of declining SQoL. However, after the sexual domains were included in the model, age had a positive relationship with SQoL, and older adults’ SQoL was differentially influenced by the quality—not quantity—of sex. When partnership characteristics were included in the model, age was no longer related to SQoL. These findings suggest that aging may be associated with the acquisition of skills and strategies that can buffer age-related declines in SQoL, particularly in the context of a positive relationship. We summarize these findings as sexual wisdom. PMID:27798838

Sexual Quality of Life and Aging: A Prospective Study of a Nationally Representative Sample.

PubMed

Forbes, Miriam K; Eaton, Nicholas R; Krueger, Robert F

2017-02-01

Unlike other life domains, sexual quality of life (SQoL) has a negative relationship with age. This study disentangled the effect of age in this relationship from confounding sociocultural influences (e.g., the period of time in which data were collected, and cohort differences) and aimed to understand the roles of other sexual domains (i.e., frequency, perceived control, thought and effort invested in sex, and number of sexual partners). We analyzed data from the longitudinal Midlife in the United States study (n = 6,278; age range 20-93), which were collected between 1995 and 2013. Repeated measures linear mixed-effects models showed that age was the most robust time-related predictor of declining SQoL. However, after the sexual domains were included in the model, age had a positive relationship with SQoL and older adults' SQoL was differentially influenced by the quality-not quantity-of sex. When partnership characteristics were included in the model, age was no longer related to SQoL. These findings suggest that aging may be associated with the acquisition of skills and strategies that can buffer age-related declines in SQoL, particularly in the context of a positive relationship. We summarize these findings as sexual wisdom.

Impact experiments in viscous fluid media

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greeley, R.

1984-01-01

Available phase and group velocity data are inverted by a procedure which includes the effects of transverse anisotropy, anelastic dispersion, sphericity, and gravity. The resulting models, for average Earth, average ocean, and oceanic regions divided according to the age of the ocean floor, are quite different from previous results which ignore the above effects. The models show a low-veocity zone with age dependent anisotropy and velocities higher than derived in previous surface wave studied. The correspondence between the anisotropy variation with age and a physical model based on flow aligned olivine is suggestive. For most of the Earth SHSV in the vicinity of the low-velocity zone. Near the East Pacific Rise, however, SVSH at depth, consistent with ascending flow. Anisotropy is as important as temperature in causing radial and lateral variations in velocity. The models have a high velocity nearly isotropic layer at the top of the mantle that thickens with age. This layer defines the LID, or seismic lithosphere. In the Pacific, the LID thickens with age to a maximum thickness of about 50 km. This thickness is comparable to the thickness of the elastic lithosphere. The LID thickness is thinner than derived using isotropic or pseudo-isotropic procedures A new model for Average Earth is obtained which includes a thin LID. This model extends the fit of a P.R.E.M. type model to shorter period surface waves.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) in Preterm and Term Neonates: Model Development and External Evaluation.

PubMed

Cook, Sarah F; Roberts, Jessica K; Samiee-Zafarghandy, Samira; Stockmann, Chris; King, Amber D; Deutsch, Nina; Williams, Elaine F; Allegaert, Karel; Wilkins, Diana G; Sherwin, Catherine M T; van den Anker, John N

2016-01-01

The aims of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for intravenous paracetamol in preterm and term neonates and to assess the generalizability of the model by testing its predictive performance in an external dataset. Nonlinear mixed-effects models were constructed from paracetamol concentration-time data in NONMEM 7.2. Potential covariates included body weight, gestational age, postnatal age, postmenstrual age, sex, race, total bilirubin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. An external dataset was used to test the predictive performance of the model through calculation of bias, precision, and normalized prediction distribution errors. The model-building dataset included 260 observations from 35 neonates with a mean gestational age of 33.6 weeks [standard deviation (SD) 6.6]. Data were well-described by a one-compartment model with first-order elimination. Weight predicted paracetamol clearance and volume of distribution, which were estimated as 0.348 L/h (5.5 % relative standard error; 30.8 % coefficient of variation) and 2.46 L (3.5 % relative standard error; 14.3 % coefficient of variation), respectively, at the mean subject weight of 2.30 kg. An external evaluation was performed on an independent dataset that included 436 observations from 60 neonates with a mean gestational age of 35.6 weeks (SD 4.3). The median prediction error was 10.1 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 6.1-14.3] and the median absolute prediction error was 25.3 % (95 % CI 23.1-28.1). Weight predicted intravenous paracetamol pharmacokinetics in neonates ranging from extreme preterm to full-term gestational status. External evaluation suggested that these findings should be generalizable to other similar patient populations.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) in Preterm and Term Neonates: Model Development and External Evaluation

PubMed Central

Cook, Sarah F.; Roberts, Jessica K.; Samiee-Zafarghandy, Samira; Stockmann, Chris; King, Amber D.; Deutsch, Nina; Williams, Elaine F.; Allegaert, Karel; Sherwin, Catherine M. T.; van den Anker, John N.

2017-01-01

Objectives The aims of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for intravenous paracetamol in preterm and term neonates and to assess the generalizability of the model by testing its predictive performance in an external dataset. Methods Nonlinear mixed-effects models were constructed from paracetamol concentration–time data in NONMEM 7.2. Potential covariates included body weight, gestational age, postnatal age, postmenstrual age, sex, race, total bilirubin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. An external dataset was used to test the predictive performance of the model through calculation of bias, precision, and normalized prediction distribution errors. Results The model-building dataset included 260 observations from 35 neonates with a mean gestational age of 33.6 weeks [standard deviation (SD) 6.6]. Data were well-described by a one-compartment model with first-order elimination. Weight predicted paracetamol clearance and volume of distribution, which were estimated as 0.348 L/h (5.5 % relative standard error; 30.8 % coefficient of variation) and 2.46 L (3.5 % relative standard error; 14.3 % coefficient of variation), respectively, at the mean subject weight of 2.30 kg. An external evaluation was performed on an independent dataset that included 436 observations from 60 neonates with a mean gestational age of 35.6 weeks (SD 4.3). The median prediction error was 10.1 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 6.1–14.3] and the median absolute prediction error was 25.3 % (95 % CI 23.1–28.1). Conclusions Weight predicted intravenous paracetamol pharmacokinetics in neonates ranging from extreme preterm to full-term gestational status. External evaluation suggested that these findings should be generalizable to other similar patient populations. PMID:26201306

The age of the Galactic disk - Inflow, chemical evolution, astration, and radioactivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayton, Donald D.

1989-01-01

Theoretical models of Galactic evolution and observational data on the age of the Galaxy are compared, with a focus on recent results. Topics addressed include the infall of material and its effects on the age-metallicity relation, the distribution of metallicity, the present gas fraction and metallicity, and the age spectrum of interstellar nuclei; the chemical evolution of the solar neighborhood; the key results of nuclear cosmochronology; and astration effects on Galactic age. It is found that both nuclear cosmochronology and detailed stellar and Galactic evolution models tend to support an age of 12-16 Gyr.

Kinetic theory of age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenman, Chris D.; Chou, Tom

2016-01-01

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but are unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Stochastic theories that treat semi-Markov age-dependent processes using, e.g., the Bellman-Harris equation do not resolve a population's age structure and are unable to quantify population-size dependencies. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., mathematical models that include carrying capacity such as the logistic equation) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new, fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a Bogoliubov--Born--Green--Kirkwood--Yvon-like hierarchy. Explicit solutions are derived in three limits: no birth, no death, and steady state. These are then compared with their corresponding mean-field results. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution.

A model of hygiene practices and consumption patterns in the consumer phase.

PubMed

Christensen, Bjarke B; Rosenquist, Hanne; Sommer, Helle M; Nielsen, Niels L; Fagt, Sisse; Andersen, Niels L; Nørrung, Birgit

2005-02-01

A mathematical model is presented, which addresses individual hygiene practices during food preparation and consumption patterns in private homes. Further, the model links food preparers and consumers based on their relationship to household types. For different age and gender groups, the model estimates (i) the probability of ingesting a meal where precautions have not been taken to avoid the transfer of microorganisms from raw food to final meal (a risk meal), exemplified by the event that the cutting board was not washed during food preparation, and (ii) the probability of ingesting a risk meal in a private home, where chicken was the prepared food item (a chicken risk meal). Chicken was included in the model, as chickens are believed to be the major source of human exposure to the foodborne pathogen Campylobacter. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the probability of ingesting a risk meal was highest for young males (aged 18-29 years) and lowest for the elderly above 60 years of age. Children aged 0-4 years had a higher probability of ingesting a risk meal than children aged 5-17 years. This difference between age and gender groups was ascribed to the variations in the hygiene levels of food preparers. By including the probability of ingesting a chicken meal at home, simulations revealed that all age groups, except the group above 60 years of age, had approximately the same probability of ingesting a chicken risk meal, the probability of females being slightly higher than that of males. The simulated results show that the probability of ingesting a chicken risk meal at home does not only depend on the hygiene practices of the persons preparing the food, but also on the consumption patterns of consumers, and the relationship between people preparing and ingesting food. This finding supports the need of including information on consumer behavior and preparation hygiene in the consumer phase of exposure assessments.

Injury severity analysis of commercially-licensed drivers in single-vehicle crashes: Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and age group differences.

PubMed

Osman, Mohamed; Mishra, Sabyasachee; Paleti, Rajesh

2018-05-18

This study analyzes the injury severity of commercially-licensed drivers involved in single-vehicle crashes. Considering the discrete ordinal nature of injury severity data, the ordered response modeling framework was adopted. The moderating effect of driver's age on all other factors was examined by segmenting the parameters by driver's age group. Additional effects of the different drivers' age groups are taken into consideration through interaction terms. Unobserved heterogeneity of the different covariates was investigated using the Mixed Generalized Ordered Response Probit (MGORP) model. The empirical analysis was conducted using four years of the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) data that included 6247 commercially-licensed drivers involved in single-vehicle crashes in the state of Minnesota. The MGORP model elasticity effects indicate that key factors that increase the likelihood of severe crashes for commercially-licensed drivers across all age groups include: lack of seatbelt usage, collision with a fixed object, speeding, vehicle age of 11 years or more, wind, night time, weekday, and female drivers. Also, the effects of several covariates were found to vary across different age groups. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Age on the Risk of Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in a Young Population: An Analysis Using the Predicted Probability Model.

PubMed

Jung, Yoon Suk; Park, Chan Hyuk; Kim, Nam Hee; Lee, Mi Yeon; Park, Dong Il

2017-09-01

The incidence of colorectal cancer is decreasing in adults aged ≥50 years and increasing in those aged <50 years. We aimed to establish risk stratification model for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACRN) in persons aged <50 years. We reviewed the records of participants who had undergone a colonoscopy as part of a health examination at two large medical examination centers in Korea. By using logistic regression analysis, we developed predicted probability models for ACRN in a population aged 30-49 years. Of 96,235 participants, 57,635 and 38,600 were included in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The predicted probability model considered age, sex, body mass index, family history of colorectal cancer, and smoking habits, as follows: Y ACRN  = -8.755 + 0.080·X age  - 0.055·X male  + 0.041·X BMI  + 0.200·X family_history_of_CRC  + 0.218·X former_smoker  + 0.644·X current_smoker . The optimal cutoff value for the predicted probability of ACRN by Youden index was 1.14%. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of our model for ACRN were higher than those of the previously established Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS), Korean Colorectal Screening (KCS), and Kaminski's scoring models [AUROC (95% confidence interval): model in the current study, 0.673 (0.648-0.697); vs. APCS, 0.588 (0.564-0.611), P < 0.001; vs. KCS, 0.602 (0.576-0.627), P < 0.001; and vs. Kaminski's model, 0.586 (0.560-0.612), P < 0.001]. In a young population, a predicted probability model can assess the risk of ACRN more accurately than existing models, including the APCS, KCS, and Kaminski's scoring models.

Disassortative Age-Mixing Does Not Explain Differences in HIV Prevalence between Young White and Black MSM: Findings from Four Studies

PubMed Central

Grey, Jeremy Alexander; Rothenberg, Richard B.; Sullivan, Patrick Sean; Rosenberg, Eli Samuel

2015-01-01

Objective Age disassortativity is one hypothesis for HIV disparities between Black and White MSM. We examined differences in age mixing by race and the effect of partner age difference on the association between race and HIV status. Design We used data from four studies of MSM. Participants reported information about recent sexual partners, including age, race, and sexual behavior. Two studies were online with a US sample and two focused on MSM in Atlanta. Methods We computed concordance correlation coefficients (CCCs) by race across strata of partner type, participant HIV status, condom use, and number of partners. We used Wilcoxon rank-sum tests to compare Black and White MSM on partner age differences across five age groups. Finally, we used logistic regression models using race, age, and partner age difference to determine the odds ratio of HIV-positive serostatus. Results Of 48 CCC comparisons, Black MSM were more age-disassortative than White MSM in only two. Furthermore, of 20 comparisons of median partner age, Black and White MSM differed in two age groups. One indicated larger age gaps among the Black MSM (18-19). Prevalent HIV infection was associated with race and age. Including partner age difference in the model resulted in a 2% change in the relative odds of infection among Black MSM. Conclusions Partner age disassortativity and partner age differences do not differ by race. Partner age difference offers little predictive value in understanding prevalent HIV infection among Black and White MSM, including diagnosis of HIV-positive status among self-reported HIV-negative individuals. PMID:26090814

Computer modeling of photodegradation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guillet, J.

1986-01-01

A computer program to simulate the photodegradation of materials exposed to terrestrial weathering environments is being developed. Input parameters would include the solar spectrum, the daily levels and variations of temperature and relative humidity, and materials such as EVA. A brief description of the program, its operating principles, and how it works was initially described. After that, the presentation focuses on the recent work of simulating aging in a normal, terrestrial day-night cycle. This is significant, as almost all accelerated aging schemes maintain a constant light illumination without a dark cycle, and this may be a critical factor not included in acceleration aging schemes. For outdoor aging, the computer model is indicating that the night dark cycle has a dramatic influence on the chemistry of photothermal degradation, and hints that a dark cycle may be needed in an accelerated aging scheme.

Emission-line diagnostics of nearby H II regions including interacting binary populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Lin; Stanway, Elizabeth R.; Eldridge, J. J.

2018-06-01

We present numerical models of the nebular emission from H II regions around young stellar populations over a range of compositions and ages. The synthetic stellar populations include both single stars and interacting binary stars. We compare these models to the observed emission lines of 254 H II regions of 13 nearby spiral galaxies and 21 dwarf galaxies drawn from archival data. The models are created using the combination of the BPASS (Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis) code with the photoionization code CLOUDY to study the differences caused by the inclusion of interacting binary stars in the stellar population. We obtain agreement with the observed emission line ratios from the nearby star-forming regions and discuss the effect of binary-star evolution pathways on the nebular ionization of H II regions. We find that at population ages above 10 Myr, single-star models rapidly decrease in flux and ionization strength, while binary-star models still produce strong flux and high [O III]/H β ratios. Our models can reproduce the metallicity of H II regions from spiral galaxies, but we find higher metallicities than previously estimated for the H II regions from dwarf galaxies. Comparing the equivalent width of H β emission between models and observations, we find that accounting for ionizing photon leakage can affect age estimates for H II regions. When it is included, the typical age derived for H II regions is 5 Myr from single-star models, and up to 10 Myr with binary-star models. This is due to the existence of binary-star evolution pathways, which produce more hot Wolf-Rayet and helium stars at older ages. For future reference, we calculate new BPASS binary maximal starburst lines as a function of metallicity, and for the total model population, and present these in Appendix A.

Multi-model inference for incorporating trophic and climate uncertainty into stock assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ianelli, James; Holsman, Kirstin K.; Punt, André E.; Aydin, Kerim

2016-12-01

Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) approaches allow a broader and more extensive consideration of objectives than is typically possible with conventional single-species approaches. Ecosystem linkages may include trophic interactions and climate change effects on productivity for the relevant species within the system. Presently, models are evolving to include a comprehensive set of fishery and ecosystem information to address these broader management considerations. The increased scope of EBFM approaches is accompanied with a greater number of plausible models to describe the systems. This can lead to harvest recommendations and biological reference points that differ considerably among models. Model selection for projections (and specific catch recommendations) often occurs through a process that tends to adopt familiar, often simpler, models without considering those that incorporate more complex ecosystem information. Multi-model inference provides a framework that resolves this dilemma by providing a means of including information from alternative, often divergent models to inform biological reference points and possible catch consequences. We apply an example of this approach to data for three species of groundfish in the Bering Sea: walleye pollock, Pacific cod, and arrowtooth flounder using three models: 1) an age-structured "conventional" single-species model, 2) an age-structured single-species model with temperature-specific weight at age, and 3) a temperature-specific multi-species stock assessment model. The latter two approaches also include consideration of alternative future climate scenarios, adding another dimension to evaluate model projection uncertainty. We show how Bayesian model-averaging methods can be used to incorporate such trophic and climate information to broaden single-species stock assessments by using an EBFM approach that may better characterize uncertainty.

A Theory of Age-Dependent Mutation and Senescence

PubMed Central

Moorad, Jacob A.; Promislow, Daniel E. L.

2008-01-01

Laboratory experiments show us that the deleterious character of accumulated novel age-specific mutations is reduced and made less variable with increased age. While theories of aging predict that the frequency of deleterious mutations at mutation–selection equilibrium will increase with the mutation's age of effect, they do not account for these age-related changes in the distribution of de novo mutational effects. Furthermore, no model predicts why this dependence of mutational effects upon age exists. Because the nature of mutational distributions plays a critical role in shaping patterns of senescence, we need to develop aging theory that explains and incorporates these effects. Here we propose a model that explains the age dependency of mutational effects by extending Fisher's geometrical model of adaptation to include a temporal dimension. Using a combination of simple analytical arguments and simulations, we show that our model predicts age-specific mutational distributions that are consistent with observations from mutation-accumulation experiments. Simulations show us that these age-specific mutational effects may generate patterns of senescence at mutation–selection equilibrium that are consistent with observed demographic patterns that are otherwise difficult to explain. PMID:18660535

Teacher Learning in the Digital Age: Online Professional Development in STEM Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dede, Chris, Ed.; Eisenkraft, Arthur, Ed.; Frumin, Kim, Ed.; Hartley, Alex, Ed.

2016-01-01

With an emphasis on science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) training, "Teacher Learning in the Digital Age" examines exemplary models of online and blended teacher professional development, including information on the structure and design of each model, intended audience, and existing research and evaluation data. From…

Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

1991-01-01

The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

Paternal age at childbirth and eating disorders in offspring.

PubMed

Javaras, K N; Rickert, M E; Thornton, L M; Peat, C M; Baker, J H; Birgegård, A; Norring, C; Landén, M; Almqvist, C; Larsson, H; Lichtenstein, P; Bulik, C M; D'Onofrio, B M

2017-02-01

Advanced paternal age at childbirth is associated with psychiatric disorders in offspring, including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and autism. However, few studies have investigated paternal age's relationship with eating disorders in offspring. In a large, population-based cohort, we examined the association between paternal age and offspring eating disorders, and whether that association remains after adjustment for potential confounders (e.g. parental education level) that may be related to late/early selection into fatherhood and to eating disorder incidence. Data for 2 276 809 individuals born in Sweden 1979-2001 were extracted from Swedish population and healthcare registers. The authors used Cox proportional hazards models to examine the effect of paternal age on the first incidence of healthcare-recorded anorexia nervosa (AN) and all eating disorders (AED) occurring 1987-2009. Models were adjusted for sex, birth order, maternal age at childbirth, and maternal and paternal covariates including country of birth, highest education level, and lifetime psychiatric and criminal history. Even after adjustment for covariates including maternal age, advanced paternal age was associated with increased risk, and younger paternal age with decreased risk, of AN and AED. For example, the fully adjusted hazard ratio for the 45+ years (v. the 25-29 years) paternal age category was 1.32 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-1.53] for AN and 1.26 (95% CI 1.13-1.40) for AED. In this large, population-based cohort, paternal age at childbirth was positively associated with eating disorders in offspring, even after adjustment for potential confounders. Future research should further explore potential explanations for the association, including de novo mutations in the paternal germline.

An investigation of the astronomical theory of the ice ages using a simple climate-ice sheet model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollard, D.

1978-01-01

The astronomical theory of the Quaternary ice ages is incorporated into a simple climate model for global weather; important features of the model include the albedo feedback, topography and dynamics of the ice sheets. For various parameterizations of the orbital elements, the model yields realistic assessments of the northern ice sheet. Lack of a land-sea heat capacity contrast represents one of the chief difficulties of the model.

Accounting for age Structure in Ponderosa Pine Ecosystem Analyses: Integrating Management, Disturbance Histories and Observations with the BIOME-BGC Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibbard, K. A.; Law, B.; Thornton, P.

2003-12-01

Disturbance and management regimes in forested ecosystems have been recently highlighted as important factors contributing to quantification of carbon stocks and fluxes. Disturbance events, such as stand-replacing fires and current management regimes that emphasize understory and tree thinning are primary suspects influencing ecosystem processes, including net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in forests of the Pacific Northwest. Several recent analyses have compared simulated to measured component stocks and fluxes of carbon in Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa var. Laws) at 12 sites ranging from 9 to 300 years in central Oregon (Law et al. 2001, Law et al. 2003) using the BIOME-BGC model. Major emphases on ecosystem model developments include improving allocation logic, integrating ecosystem processes with disturbance such as fire and including nitrogen in biogeochemical cycling. In Law et al. (2001, 2003), field observations prompted BIOME-BGC improvements including dynamic allocation of carbon to fine root mass through the life of a stand. A sequence of simulations was also designed to represent both management and disturbance histories for each site, however, current age structure of each sites wasn't addressed. Age structure, or cohort management has largely been ignored by ecosystem models, however, some studies have sought to incorporate stand age with disturbance and management (e.g. Hibbard et al. 2003). In this analyses, we regressed tree ages against height (R2 = 0.67) to develop a proportional distribution of age structure for each site. To preserve the integrity of the comparison between Law et al. (2003) and this study, we maintained the same timing of harvest, however, based on the distribution of age structures, we manipulated the amount of removal. Harvest by Law et al. (2003) was set at stand-replacement (99%) levels to simulate clear-cutting and reflecting the average top 10% of the age in each plot. For the young sites, we set removal at 73%, 51% and 61% for sites averaging 9,16 and 23 years, respectively. It was assumed that changes in long-term pools (e.g. soil C) were negligible within these timeframes. In Law et al. (2003), the model performed well for old and mature sites, however, model simulations of the younger sites (9-50Y) were weak compared to NEP estimates from observations. Error for the young plots in Law et al. (2003) ranged from 150 - >400% of observed NEP. By accounting for the observed age structure through harvest removal, model error from this study ranged from 20-90% in young plots. This study is one of a few that have sought to account for age structure in simulating ecosystem dynamics and processes.

Risk Adjustment and Primary Health Care in Chile

PubMed Central

Vargas, Veronica; Wasem, Juergen

2006-01-01

Aim To offer a capitation formula with greater capacity for guiding resource spending on population with poorer health and lower socioeconomic status in the context of financing and equity in primary health care. Methods We collected two years of data on a sample of 10 000 individuals from a region in Chile, Valdivia and Temuco and evaluated three models to estimate utilization and expenditures per capita. The first model included age and sex; the second one included age, sex, and the presence of two key diagnoses; and the third model included age, sex, and the presence of seven key diagnoses. Regression results were evaluated by R2 and predictive ratios to select the best specifications. Results Per-capita expenditures by age and sex confirmed international trends, where children under five, women, and the elderly were the main users of primary health care services. Women sought health advice twice as much as men. Clear differences by socioeconomic status were observed for the indigent population aged ≥65 years who under-utilized primary health care services. From the three models, major improvement in the predictive power occurred from the demographic (adjusted R2, 9%) to the demographic plus two diagnoses model (adjusted R2, 27%). Improvements were modest when five other diagnoses were added (adjusted R2, 28%). Conclusion The current formula that uses municipality’s financial power and geographic location of health centers to adjust capitation payments provides little incentive to appropriate care for the indigent and people with chronic conditions. A capitation payment that adjusts for age, sex, and the presence of diabetes and hypertension will better guide resource allocation to those with poorer health and lower socioeconomic status. PMID:16758525

Prostate health index (PHI) and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) predictive models for prostate cancer in the Chinese population and the role of digital rectal examination-estimated prostate volume.

PubMed

Chiu, Peter K F; Roobol, Monique J; Teoh, Jeremy Y; Lee, Wai-Man; Yip, Siu-Ying; Hou, See-Ming; Bangma, Chris H; Ng, Chi-Fai

2016-10-01

To investigate PSA- and PHI (prostate health index)-based models for prediction of prostate cancer (PCa) and the feasibility of using DRE-estimated prostate volume (DRE-PV) in the models. This study included 569 Chinese men with PSA 4-10 ng/mL and non-suspicious DRE with transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) 10-core prostate biopsies performed between April 2008 and July 2015. DRE-PV was estimated using 3 pre-defined classes: 25, 40, or 60 ml. The performance of PSA-based and PHI-based predictive models including age, DRE-PV, and TRUS prostate volume (TRUS-PV) was analyzed using logistic regression and area under the receiver operating curves (AUC), in both the whole cohort and the screening age group of 55-75. PCa and high-grade PCa (HGPCa) was diagnosed in 10.9 % (62/569) and 2.8 % (16/569) men, respectively. The performance of DRE-PV-based models was similar to TRUS-PV-based models. In the age group 55-75, the AUCs for PCa of PSA alone, PSA with DRE-PV and age, PHI alone, PHI with DRE-PV and age, and PHI with TRUS-PV and age were 0.54, 0.71, 0.76, 0.78, and 0.78, respectively. The corresponding AUCs for HGPCa were higher (0.60, 0.70, 0.85, 0.83, and 0.83). At 10 and 20 % risk threshold for PCa, 38.4 and 55.4 % biopsies could be avoided in the PHI-based model, respectively. PHI had better performance over PSA-based models and could reduce unnecessary biopsies. A DRE-assessed PV can replace TRUS-assessed PV in multivariate prediction models to facilitate clinical use.

The DrugAge database of aging-related drugs.

PubMed

Barardo, Diogo; Thornton, Daniel; Thoppil, Harikrishnan; Walsh, Michael; Sharifi, Samim; Ferreira, Susana; Anžič, Andreja; Fernandes, Maria; Monteiro, Patrick; Grum, Tjaša; Cordeiro, Rui; De-Souza, Evandro Araújo; Budovsky, Arie; Araujo, Natali; Gruber, Jan; Petrascheck, Michael; Fraifeld, Vadim E; Zhavoronkov, Alexander; Moskalev, Alexey; de Magalhães, João Pedro

2017-06-01

Aging is a major worldwide medical challenge. Not surprisingly, identifying drugs and compounds that extend lifespan in model organisms is a growing research area. Here, we present DrugAge (http://genomics.senescence.info/drugs/), a curated database of lifespan-extending drugs and compounds. At the time of writing, DrugAge contains 1316 entries featuring 418 different compounds from studies across 27 model organisms, including worms, flies, yeast and mice. Data were manually curated from 324 publications. Using drug-gene interaction data, we also performed a functional enrichment analysis of targets of lifespan-extending drugs. Enriched terms include various functional categories related to glutathione and antioxidant activity, ion transport and metabolic processes. In addition, we found a modest but significant overlap between targets of lifespan-extending drugs and known aging-related genes, suggesting that some but not most aging-related pathways have been targeted pharmacologically in longevity studies. DrugAge is freely available online for the scientific community and will be an important resource for biogerontologists. © 2017 The Authors. Aging Cell published by the Anatomical Society and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nutrigenomics at the Interface of Aging, Lifespan, and Cancer Prevention123

PubMed Central

Riscuta, Gabriela

2016-01-01

The percentage of elderly people with associated age-related health deterioration, including cancer, has been increasing for decades. Among age-related diseases, the incidence of cancer has grown substantially, in part because of the overlap of some molecular pathways between cancer and aging. Studies with model organisms suggest that aging and age-related conditions are manipulable processes that can be modified by both genetic and environmental factors, including dietary habits. Variations in genetic backgrounds likely lead to differential responses to dietary changes and account for some of the inconsistencies found in the literature. The intricacies of the aging process, coupled with the interrelational role of bioactive food components on gene expression, make this review a complex undertaking. Nevertheless, intriguing evidence suggests that dietary habits can manipulate the aging process and/or its consequences and potentially may have unprecedented health benefits. The present review focuses on 4 cellular events: telomerase activity, bioenergetics, DNA repair, and oxidative stress. These processes are linked to both aging and cancer risk, and their alteration in animal models by selected food components is evident. PMID:27558581

Nutrigenomics at the Interface of Aging, Lifespan, and Cancer Prevention.

PubMed

Riscuta, Gabriela

2016-10-01

The percentage of elderly people with associated age-related health deterioration, including cancer, has been increasing for decades. Among age-related diseases, the incidence of cancer has grown substantially, in part because of the overlap of some molecular pathways between cancer and aging. Studies with model organisms suggest that aging and age-related conditions are manipulable processes that can be modified by both genetic and environmental factors, including dietary habits. Variations in genetic backgrounds likely lead to differential responses to dietary changes and account for some of the inconsistencies found in the literature. The intricacies of the aging process, coupled with the interrelational role of bioactive food components on gene expression, make this review a complex undertaking. Nevertheless, intriguing evidence suggests that dietary habits can manipulate the aging process and/or its consequences and potentially may have unprecedented health benefits. The present review focuses on 4 cellular events: telomerase activity, bioenergetics, DNA repair, and oxidative stress. These processes are linked to both aging and cancer risk, and their alteration in animal models by selected food components is evident. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Automatic Information Processing and High Performance Skills: Individual Differences and Mechanisms of Performance Improvement in Search-Detection and Complex Task

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

abilities is fit along with the autoregressive process. Initially, the influences on search performance of within-group age and sex were included as control...Results: PerformanceLAbility Structure Measurement Model: Ability Structure The correlations between all the ability measures, age, and sex are...subsequent analyses for young adults. Age and sex were included as control variables. There was an age range of 15 years; this range is sufficiently large that

Prediction of gestational age based on genome-wide differentially methylated regions.

PubMed

Bohlin, J; Håberg, S E; Magnus, P; Reese, S E; Gjessing, H K; Magnus, M C; Parr, C L; Page, C M; London, S J; Nystad, W

2016-10-07

We explored the association between gestational age and cord blood DNA methylation at birth and whether DNA methylation could be effective in predicting gestational age due to limitations with the presently used methods. We used data from the Norwegian Mother and Child Birth Cohort study (MoBa) with Illumina HumanMethylation450 data measured for 1753 newborns in two batches: MoBa 1, n = 1068; and MoBa 2, n = 685. Gestational age was computed using both ultrasound and the last menstrual period. We evaluated associations between DNA methylation and gestational age and developed a statistical model for predicting gestational age using MoBa 1 for training and MoBa 2 for predictions. The prediction model was additionally used to compare ultrasound and last menstrual period-based gestational age predictions. Furthermore, both CpGs and associated genes detected in the training models were compared to those detected in a published prediction model for chronological age. There were 5474 CpGs associated with ultrasound gestational age after adjustment for a set of covariates, including estimated cell type proportions, and Bonferroni-correction for multiple testing. Our model predicted ultrasound gestational age more accurately than it predicted last menstrual period gestational age. DNA methylation at birth appears to be a good predictor of gestational age. Ultrasound gestational age is more strongly associated with methylation than last menstrual period gestational age. The CpGs linked with our gestational age prediction model, and their associated genes, differed substantially from the corresponding CpGs and genes associated with a chronological age prediction model.

Effort-reward imbalance and organisational injustice among aged nurses: a moderated mediation model.

PubMed

Topa, Gabriela; Guglielmi, Dina; Depolo, Marco

2016-09-01

To test the effort-reward imbalance model among older nurses, expanding it to include the moderation of overcommitment and age in the stress-health complaints relationship, mediated by organisational injustice. The theoretical framework included the effort-reward imbalance, the uncertainty management and the socio-emotional selectivity models. Employing a two-wave design, the participants were 255 nurses aged 45 years and over, recruited from four large hospitals in Spain (Madrid and Basque Country). The direct effect of imbalance on health complaints was supported: it was significant when overcommitment was low but not when it was high. Organisational injustice mediated the influence of effort-reward imbalance on health complaints. The conditional effect of the mediation of organisational injustice was significant in three of the overcommitment/age conditions but it weakened, becoming non-significant, when the level of overcommitment was low and age was high. The study tested the model in nursing populations and expanded it to the settings of occupational health and safety at work. The results of this study highlight the importance of effort-reward imbalance and organisational justice for creating healthy work environments. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Systems biology as a conceptual framework for research in family medicine; use in predicting response to influenza vaccination.

PubMed

Majnarić-Trtica, Ljiljana; Vitale, Branko

2011-10-01

To introduce systems biology as a conceptual framework for research in family medicine, based on empirical data from a case study on the prediction of influenza vaccination outcomes. This concept is primarily oriented towards planning preventive interventions and includes systematic data recording, a multi-step research protocol and predictive modelling. Factors known to affect responses to influenza vaccination include older age, past exposure to influenza viruses, and chronic diseases; however, constructing useful prediction models remains a challenge, because of the need to identify health parameters that are appropriate for general use in modelling patients' responses. The sample consisted of 93 patients aged 50-89 years (median 69), with multiple medical conditions, who were vaccinated against influenza. Literature searches identified potentially predictive health-related parameters, including age, gender, diagnoses of the main chronic ageing diseases, anthropometric measures, and haematological and biochemical tests. By applying data mining algorithms, patterns were identified in the data set. Candidate health parameters, selected in this way, were then combined with information on past influenza virus exposure to build the prediction model using logistic regression. A highly significant prediction model was obtained, indicating that by using a systems biology approach it is possible to answer unresolved complex medical uncertainties. Adopting this systems biology approach can be expected to be useful in identifying the most appropriate target groups for other preventive programmes.

Defining successful aging: a tangible or elusive concept?

PubMed

Martin, Peter; Kelly, Norene; Kahana, Boaz; Kahana, Eva; Willcox, Bradley J; Willcox, D Craig; Poon, Leonard W

2015-02-01

Everyone wants to age successfully; however, the definition and criteria of successful aging remain vague for laypersons, researchers, and policymakers in spite of decades of research on the topic. This paper highlights work of scholars who made significant theoretical contributions to the topic. A thorough review and evaluation of the literature on successful aging was undertaken. Our review includes early gerontological definitions of successful aging and related concepts. Historical perspectives reach back to philosophical and religious texts, and more recent approaches have focused on both process- and outcome-oriented models of successful aging. We elaborate on Baltes and Baltes' theory of selective optimization with compensation [Baltes, P. B., & Baltes, M. M. (1990a). Psychological perspectives on successful aging: The model of selective optimization with compensation. In P. B. Baltes & M. M. Baltes (Eds.), Successful aging: Perspectives from the behavioral sciences (pp. 1-34). United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press], Kahana and Kahana's preventive and corrective proactivity model [Kahana, E., & Kahana, B. (1996). Conceptual and empirical advances in understanding aging well through proactive adaptation. In V. Bengtson (Ed.), Adulthood and aging: Research on continuities and discontinuities (pp. 18-40). New York: Springer], and Rowe and Kahn's model of successful aging [Rowe, J. W., & Kahn, R. L. (1998). Successful aging. New York: Pantheon Books], outlining their commonalities and differences. Additional views on successful aging emphasize subjective versus objective perceptions of successful aging and relate successful aging to studies on healthy and exceptional longevity. Additional theoretical work is needed to better understand successful aging, including the way it can encompass disability and death and dying. The extent of rapid social and technological change influencing views on successful aging also deserves more consideration. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Age at exposure and attained age variations of cancer risk in the Japanese A-bomb and radiotherapy cohorts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schneider, Uwe, E-mail: uwe.schneider@uzh.ch; Walsh, Linda

Purpose: Phenomenological risk models for radiation-induced cancer are frequently applied to estimate the risk of radiation-induced cancers at radiotherapy doses. Such models often include the effect modification, of the main risk to radiation dose response, by age at exposure and attained age. The aim of this paper is to compare the patterns in risk effect modification by age, between models obtained from the Japanese atomic-bomb (A-bomb) survivor data and models for cancer risks previously reported for radiotherapy patients. Patterns in risk effect modification by age from the epidemiological studies of radiotherapy patients were also used to refine and extend themore » risk effect modification by age obtained from the A-bomb survivor data, so that more universal models can be presented here. Methods: Simple log-linear and power functions of age for the risk effect modification applied in models of the A-bomb survivor data are compared to risks from epidemiological studies of second cancers after radiotherapy. These functions of age were also refined and fitted to radiotherapy risks. The resulting age models provide a refined and extended functional dependence of risk with age at exposure and attained age especially beyond 40 and 65 yr, respectively, and provide a better representation than the currently available simple age functions. Results: It was found that the A-bomb models predict risk similarly to the outcomes of testicular cancer survivors. The survivors of Hodgkin’s disease show steeper variations of risk with both age at exposure and attained age. The extended models predict solid cancer risk increase as a function of age at exposure beyond 40 yr and the risk decrease as a function of attained age beyond 65 yr better than the simple models. Conclusions: The standard functions for risk effect modification by age, based on the A-bomb survivor data, predict second cancer risk in radiotherapy patients for ages at exposure prior to 40 yr and attained ages before 55 yr reasonably well. However, for larger ages, the refined and extended models can be applied to predict the risk as a function of age.« less

Age at exposure and attained age variations of cancer risk in the Japanese A-bomb and radiotherapy cohorts.

PubMed

Schneider, Uwe; Walsh, Linda

2015-08-01

Phenomenological risk models for radiation-induced cancer are frequently applied to estimate the risk of radiation-induced cancers at radiotherapy doses. Such models often include the effect modification, of the main risk to radiation dose response, by age at exposure and attained age. The aim of this paper is to compare the patterns in risk effect modification by age, between models obtained from the Japanese atomic-bomb (A-bomb) survivor data and models for cancer risks previously reported for radiotherapy patients. Patterns in risk effect modification by age from the epidemiological studies of radiotherapy patients were also used to refine and extend the risk effect modification by age obtained from the A-bomb survivor data, so that more universal models can be presented here. Simple log-linear and power functions of age for the risk effect modification applied in models of the A-bomb survivor data are compared to risks from epidemiological studies of second cancers after radiotherapy. These functions of age were also refined and fitted to radiotherapy risks. The resulting age models provide a refined and extended functional dependence of risk with age at exposure and attained age especially beyond 40 and 65 yr, respectively, and provide a better representation than the currently available simple age functions. It was found that the A-bomb models predict risk similarly to the outcomes of testicular cancer survivors. The survivors of Hodgkin's disease show steeper variations of risk with both age at exposure and attained age. The extended models predict solid cancer risk increase as a function of age at exposure beyond 40 yr and the risk decrease as a function of attained age beyond 65 yr better than the simple models. The standard functions for risk effect modification by age, based on the A-bomb survivor data, predict second cancer risk in radiotherapy patients for ages at exposure prior to 40 yr and attained ages before 55 yr reasonably well. However, for larger ages, the refined and extended models can be applied to predict the risk as a function of age.

Comparison of Two Predictive Models for Short-Term Mortality in Patients after Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Kesmarky, Klara; Delhumeau, Cecile; Zenobi, Marie; Walder, Bernhard

2017-07-15

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and the Abbreviated Injury Score of the head region (HAIS) are validated prognostic factors in traumatic brain injury (TBI). The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic performance of an alternative predictive model including motor GCS, pupillary reactivity, age, HAIS, and presence of multi-trauma for short-term mortality with a reference predictive model including motor GCS, pupil reaction, and age (IMPACT core model). A secondary analysis of a prospective epidemiological cohort study in Switzerland including patients after severe TBI (HAIS >3) with the outcome death at 14 days was performed. Performance of prediction, accuracy of discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]), calibration, and validity of the two predictive models were investigated. The cohort included 808 patients (median age, 56; interquartile range, 33-71), median GCS at hospital admission 3 (3-14), abnormal pupil reaction 29%, with a death rate of 29.7% at 14 days. The alternative predictive model had a higher accuracy of discrimination to predict death at 14 days than the reference predictive model (AUROC 0.852, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.824-0.880 vs. AUROC 0.826, 95% CI 0.795-0.857; p < 0.0001). The alternative predictive model had an equivalent calibration, compared with the reference predictive model Hosmer-Lemeshow p values (Chi2 8.52, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.345 vs. Chi2 8.66, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.372). The optimism-corrected value of AUROC for the alternative predictive model was 0.845. After severe TBI, a higher performance of prediction for short-term mortality was observed with the alternative predictive model, compared with the reference predictive model.

Random regression analyses using B-splines functions to model growth from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle.

PubMed

Baldi, F; Alencar, M M; Albuquerque, L G

2010-12-01

The objective of this work was to estimate covariance functions using random regression models on B-splines functions of animal age, for weights from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle. Data comprised 49,011 records on 2435 females. The model of analysis included fixed effects of contemporary groups, age of dam as quadratic covariable and the population mean trend taken into account by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age. Residual variances were modelled through a step function with four classes. The direct and maternal additive genetic effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects were included as random effects in the model. A total of seventeen analyses, considering linear, quadratic and cubic B-splines functions and up to seven knots, were carried out. B-spline functions of the same order were considered for all random effects. Random regression models on B-splines functions were compared to a random regression model on Legendre polynomials and with a multitrait model. Results from different models of analyses were compared using the REML form of the Akaike Information criterion and Schwarz' Bayesian Information criterion. In addition, the variance components and genetic parameters estimated for each random regression model were also used as criteria to choose the most adequate model to describe the covariance structure of the data. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data. Random regression models using B-spline functions as base functions fitted the data better than Legendre polynomials, especially at mature ages, but higher number of parameters need to be estimated with B-splines functions. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

An age dependent model for radium metabolism in man.

PubMed

Johnson, J R

1983-01-01

The model developed by a Task Group of Committee 2 of ICRP to describe Alkaline Earth Metabolism in Adult Man (ICRP Publication 20) has been modified so that recycling is handled explicitly, and retention in mineral bone is represented by second compartments rather than by the product of a power function and an exponential. This model has been extended to include all ages from birth to adult man, and has been coupled with modified "ICRP" lung and G.I. tract models so that activity in organs can be calculated as functions of time during or after exposures. These activities, and age dependent "specific effective energy" factors, are then used to calculate age dependent dose rates, and dose commitments. This presentation describes this work, with emphasis on the model parameters and results obtained for radium.

Sleep disorders, obesity, and aging: the role of orexin

PubMed Central

Nixon, Joshua P.; Mavanji, Vijayakumar; Butterick, Tammy A.; Billington, Charles J.; Kotz, Catherine M.; Teske, Jennifer A.

2015-01-01

The hypothalamic neuropeptides orexin A and B (hypocretin 1 and 2) are important homeostatic mediators of central control of energy metabolism and maintenance of sleep/wake states. Dysregulation or loss of orexin signaling has been linked to narcolepsy, obesity, and age-related disorders. In this review, we present an overview of our current understanding of orexin function, focusing on sleep disorders, energy balance, and aging, in both rodents and humans. We first discuss animal models used in studies of obesity and sleep, including loss of function using transgenic or viral-mediated approaches, gain of function models using exogenous delivery of orexin receptor agonist, and naturally-occurring models in which orexin responsiveness varies by individual. We next explore rodent models of orexin in aging, presenting evidence that orexin loss contributes to age-related changes in sleep and energy balance. In the next section, we focus on clinical importance of orexin in human obesity, sleep, and aging. We include discussion of orexin loss in narcolepsy and potential importance of orexin in insomnia, correlations between animal and human studies of age-related decline, and evidence for orexin involvement in age-related changes in cognitive performance. Finally, we present a summary of recent studies of orexin in neurodegenerative disease. We conclude that orexin acts as an integrative homeostatic signal influencing numerous brain regions, and that this pivotal role results in potential dysregulation of multiple physiological processes when orexin signaling is disrupted or lost. PMID:25462194

Sleep disorders, obesity, and aging: the role of orexin.

PubMed

Nixon, Joshua P; Mavanji, Vijayakumar; Butterick, Tammy A; Billington, Charles J; Kotz, Catherine M; Teske, Jennifer A

2015-03-01

The hypothalamic neuropeptides orexin A and B (hypocretin 1 and 2) are important homeostatic mediators of central control of energy metabolism and maintenance of sleep/wake states. Dysregulation or loss of orexin signaling has been linked to narcolepsy, obesity, and age-related disorders. In this review, we present an overview of our current understanding of orexin function, focusing on sleep disorders, energy balance, and aging, in both rodents and humans. We first discuss animal models used in studies of obesity and sleep, including loss of function using transgenic or viral-mediated approaches, gain of function models using exogenous delivery of orexin receptor agonist, and naturally-occurring models in which orexin responsiveness varies by individual. We next explore rodent models of orexin in aging, presenting evidence that orexin loss contributes to age-related changes in sleep and energy balance. In the next section, we focus on clinical importance of orexin in human obesity, sleep, and aging. We include discussion of orexin loss in narcolepsy and potential importance of orexin in insomnia, correlations between animal and human studies of age-related decline, and evidence for orexin involvement in age-related changes in cognitive performance. Finally, we present a summary of recent studies of orexin in neurodegenerative disease. We conclude that orexin acts as an integrative homeostatic signal influencing numerous brain regions, and that this pivotal role results in potential dysregulation of multiple physiological processes when orexin signaling is disrupted or lost. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A general methodology for maximum likelihood inference from band-recovery data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Williams, B.K.

1984-01-01

A numerical procedure is described for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates and associated maximum likelihood inference from band- recovery data. The method is used to illustrate previously developed one-age-class band-recovery models, and is extended to new models, including the analysis with a covariate for survival rates and variable-time-period recovery models. Extensions to R-age-class band- recovery, mark-recapture models, and twice-yearly marking are discussed. A FORTRAN program provides computations for these models.

Active Life of the Senior Citizens through Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taziev, Saljakhutdin Fardievich

2015-01-01

The paper presents reasons for including the senior citizens into educational process, as well as active age model. Education, communication and leisure system for the senior citizens, implemented by Yelabuga municipal district, is presented as a requirement for model realization. A core of the paper is the Active Age Institute. Its program…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Royer, Michael P.; Houser, Kevin W.

An experiment was conducted to examine the effect of tuning optical radiation on brightness perception for younger (18-25 years of age) and older (50 years of age or older) observers. Participants made forced-choice evaluations of the brightness of a full factorial of stimulus pairs selected from two groups of four metameric stimuli. The large-field stimuli were created by systematically varying either the red or the blue primary of an RGB LED mixture. The results indicate that light stimuli of equal illuminance and chromaticity do not appear equally bright to either younger or older subjects. The rank-order of brightness is notmore » predicted by any current model of human vision or theory of brightness perception including Scotopic to Photopic or Cirtopic to Photopic ratio theory, prime color theory, correlated color temperature, V(λ)-based photometry, color quality metrics, linear brightness models, or color appearance models. Age may affect brightness perception when short-wavelength primaries are used, especially those with a peak wavelength shorter than 450 nm. The results suggest further development of metrics to predict brightness perception is warranted, and that including age as a variable in predictive models may be valuable.« less

Children's Education and Parents' Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms.

PubMed

Lee, Chioun; Glei, Dana A; Goldman, Noreen; Weinstein, Maxine

2017-03-01

Using five waves of the Taiwanese Longitudinal Study of Aging (1996-2011), we investigate (1) the association between family members' education and the age trajectories of individuals' depressive symptoms and (2) gender differences in those relationships. Our examination is guided by several theoretical frameworks, including social capital, social control, age as leveler, and resource substitution. Nested models show that having a more educated father is associated with lower depressive symptoms, but the relationship disappears after controlling for respondent's education. Including spouse's education attenuates the coefficient for respondent's education. A similar pattern appears when children's education is added to the model. Among all the family members, children's education has the strongest association with depressive symptoms, with a similar magnitude for both genders, although its strength gradually weakens as respondents age. Our findings suggest the importance of the transfer of resources from children to parents and how it may affect mental health at older ages.

Autophagy drives epidermal deterioration in a Drosophila model of tissue aging.

PubMed

Scherfer, Christoph; Han, Violet C; Wang, Yan; Anderson, Aimee E; Galko, Michael J

2013-04-01

Organismal lifespan has been the primary readout in aging research. However, how longevity genes control tissue-specific aging remains an open question. To examine the crosstalk between longevity programs and specific tissues during aging, biomarkers of organ-specific aging are urgently needed. Since the earliest signs of aging occur in the skin, we sought to examine skin aging in a genetically tractable model. Here we introduce a Drosophila model of skin aging. The epidermis undergoes a dramatic morphological deterioration with age that includes membrane and nuclear loss. These changes were decelerated in a long-lived mutant and accelerated in a short-lived mutant. An increase in autophagy markers correlated with epidermal aging. Finally, the epidermis of Atg7 mutants retained younger characteristics, suggesting that autophagy is a critical driver of epidermal aging. This is surprising given that autophagy is generally viewed as protective during aging. Since Atg7 mutants are short-lived, the deceleration of epidermal aging in this mutant suggests that in the epidermis healthspan can be uncoupled from longevity. Because the aging readout we introduce here has an early onset and is easily visualized, genetic dissection using our model should identify other novel mechanisms by which lifespan genes feed into tissue-specific aging.

SENESCENCE (AGEING) @ 2011

PubMed Central

Nigam, Anjana

2011-01-01

Ageing, also called as senescence, is one of the most complex, intrinsic, biological processes of growing older and resulting into reduced functional ability of the organism. Telomerase, environment, low calorie diets, free radicals, etc., are all believed to affect this ageing process. A number of genetic components of ageing have been identified using model organisms. Genes, mainly the sirtuins, regulate the ageing speed by indirection and controlling organism resistance to damages by exogenous and endogenous stresses. In higher organisms, ageing is likely to be regulated, in part, through the insulin/insulin-like growth factor 1 pathway. Besides this, the induction of apoptosis in stem and progenitor cells, increased p53 activity, and autophagy is also thought to trigger premature organismal ageing. Ageing has also been shown to upregulate expression of inflammatory mediators in mouse adipose tissue. The understanding of pathophysiology of ageing over the past few years has posed tremendous challenges for the development of anti-ageing medicine for targeted therapy. Future research areas must include targeted role of systemic inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein and interleukin 6 and other biochemical and genetic studies including gene signaling pathways, gene microarray analysis, gene modulation, gene therapy, and development of animal/human models for potential therapeutic measures and evaluations. PMID:22345758

Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States–Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci

PubMed Central

Clyde, Merlise A.; Palmieri Weber, Rachel; Iversen, Edwin S.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Goodman, Marc T.; Ness, Roberta B.; Risch, Harvey A.; Rossing, Mary Anne; Terry, Kathryn L.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Bandera, Elisa V.; Berchuck, Andrew; Carney, Michael E.; Cramer, Daniel W.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Cushing-Haugen, Kara L.; Edwards, Robert P.; Fridley, Brooke L.; Goode, Ellen L.; Lurie, Galina; McGuire, Valerie; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Olson, Sara H.; Pearce, Celeste Leigh; Pike, Malcolm C.; Rothstein, Joseph H.; Sellers, Thomas A.; Sieh, Weiva; Stram, Daniel; Thompson, Pamela J.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Wicklund, Kristine G.; Wu, Anna H.; Ziogas, Argyrios; Tworoger, Shelley S.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.

2016-01-01

Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted. PMID:27698005

Evidence for a Sizable Age Spread among Galaxies from the Ultraviolet-Upturn Phenomenon in Early-type Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jang-Hyun; Lee, Young-Wook

1997-02-01

The suggestion of Lee that the age spread among galaxies is responsible for the systematic variation of the ultraviolet upturn among early-type systems is examined here with detailed population synthesis models. Our models differ from previous ones by including (1) the effect of metallicity spreads and (2) detailed modeling of the variations in H-R diagram morphology (including the helium-burning phase) with age and metallicity. Our models suggest that the far-UV radiation of these systems is dominated by a minority population of metal-poor, hot horizontal-branch (HB) stars and their post-HB progeny, with some contribution from metal-rich post-asymptotic giant branch stars, while the optical radiation is dominated by a metal-rich population. The systematic variation of the UV upturn depends on the contribution from metal-poor, hot HB stars and their post-HB progeny, which in turn depends on the ages of old stellar populations in galaxies. Our result implies a prolonged epoch of galaxy formation, in the sense that more massive galaxies (in denser environments) formed first. With the assumption that the UV-upturn phenomenon is solely due to the age variations among galaxies, we estimate the difference in age between the giant elliptical galaxies and the spiral bulges of the Local Group to be ~3 Gyr. This suggests that the best estimate for the lower limit of the age of the universe is ~19 Gyr, which of course would be in conflict with the current estimate of H0, together with the standard cosmological models with zero cosmological constant.

Importance of Multimodal MRI in Characterizing Brain Tissue and Its Potential Application for Individual Age Prediction.

PubMed

Cherubini, Andrea; Caligiuri, Maria Eugenia; Peran, Patrice; Sabatini, Umberto; Cosentino, Carlo; Amato, Francesco

2016-09-01

This study presents a voxel-based multiple regression analysis of different magnetic resonance image modalities, including anatomical T1-weighted, T2(*) relaxometry, and diffusion tensor imaging. Quantitative parameters sensitive to complementary brain tissue alterations, including morphometric atrophy, mineralization, microstructural damage, and anisotropy loss, were compared in a linear physiological aging model in 140 healthy subjects (range 20-74 years). The performance of different predictors and the identification of the best biomarker of age-induced structural variation were compared without a priori anatomical knowledge. The best quantitative predictors in several brain regions were iron deposition and microstructural damage, rather than macroscopic tissue atrophy. Age variations were best resolved with a combination of markers, suggesting that multiple predictors better capture age-induced tissue alterations. The results of the linear model were used to predict apparent age in different regions of individual brain. This approach pointed to a number of novel applications that could potentially help highlighting areas particularly vulnerable to disease.

Modeling Fetal Weight for Gestational Age: A Comparison of a Flexible Multi-level Spline-based Model with Other Approaches

PubMed Central

Villandré, Luc; Hutcheon, Jennifer A; Perez Trejo, Maria Esther; Abenhaim, Haim; Jacobsen, Geir; Platt, Robert W

2011-01-01

We present a model for longitudinal measures of fetal weight as a function of gestational age. We use a linear mixed model, with a Box-Cox transformation of fetal weight values, and restricted cubic splines, in order to flexibly but parsimoniously model median fetal weight. We systematically compare our model to other proposed approaches. All proposed methods are shown to yield similar median estimates, as evidenced by overlapping pointwise confidence bands, except after 40 completed weeks, where our method seems to produce estimates more consistent with observed data. Sex-based stratification affects the estimates of the random effects variance-covariance structure, without significantly changing sex-specific fitted median values. We illustrate the benefits of including sex-gestational age interaction terms in the model over stratification. The comparison leads to the conclusion that the selection of a model for fetal weight for gestational age can be based on the specific goals and configuration of a given study without affecting the precision or value of median estimates for most gestational ages of interest. PMID:21931571

Modeling Predictors of Duties Not Including Flying Status.

PubMed

Tvaryanas, Anthony P; Griffith, Converse

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to reuse available datasets to conduct an analysis of potential predictors of U.S. Air Force aircrew nonavailability in terms of being in "duties not to include flying" (DNIF) status. This study was a retrospective cohort analysis of U.S. Air Force aircrew on active duty during the period from 2003-2012. Predictor variables included age, Air Force Specialty Code (AFSC), clinic location, diagnosis, gender, pay grade, and service component. The response variable was DNIF duration. Nonparametric methods were used for the exploratory analysis and parametric methods were used for model building and statistical inference. Out of a set of 783 potential predictor variables, 339 variables were identified from the nonparametric exploratory analysis for inclusion in the parametric analysis. Of these, 54 variables had significant associations with DNIF duration in the final model fitted to the validation data set. The predicted results of this model for DNIF duration had a correlation of 0.45 with the actual number of DNIF days. Predictor variables included age, 6 AFSCs, 7 clinic locations, and 40 primary diagnosis categories. Specific demographic (i.e., age), occupational (i.e., AFSC), and health (i.e., clinic location and primary diagnosis category) DNIF drivers were identified. Subsequent research should focus on the application of primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention measures to ameliorate the potential impact of these DNIF drivers where possible.Tvaryanas AP, Griffith C Jr. Modeling predictors of duties not including flying status. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2018; 89(1):52-57.

Does active ageing contribute to life satisfaction for older people? Testing a new model of active ageing.

PubMed

Marsillas, Sara; De Donder, Liesbeth; Kardol, Tinie; van Regenmortel, Sofie; Dury, Sarah; Brosens, Dorien; Smetcoren, An-Sofie; Braña, Teresa; Varela, Jesús

2017-09-01

Several debates have emerged across the literature about the conceptualisation of active ageing. The aim of this study is to develop a model of the construct that is focused on the individual, including different elements of people's lives that have the potential to be modified by intervention programs. Moreover, the paper examines the contributions of active ageing to life satisfaction, as well as the possible predictive role of coping styles on active ageing. For this purpose, a representative sample of 404 Galician (Spain) community-dwelling older adults (aged ≥60 years) were interviewed using a structured survey. The results demonstrate that the proposed model composed of two broad categories is valid. The model comprises status variables (related to physical, psychological, and social health) as well as different types of activities, called processual variables. This model is tested using partial least squares (PLS) regression. The findings show that active ageing is a fourth-order, formative construct. In addition, PLS analyses indicate that active ageing has a moderate and positive path on life satisfaction and that coping styles may predict active ageing. The discussion highlights the potential of active ageing as a relevant concept for people's lives, drawing out policy implications and suggestions for further research.

A Model of Spirituality for Ageing Muslims.

PubMed

Ahmad, Mahjabeen; Khan, Shamsul

2016-06-01

Spirituality's influence on general well-being and its association with healthy ageing has been studied extensively. However, a different perspective has to be brought in when dealing with spirituality issues of ageing Muslims. Central to this perspective is the intertwining of religion and spirituality in Islam. This article will contribute to the understanding of the nature of Islamic spirituality and its immense importance in the life of a practicing ageing Muslim. Consequently, it will help care providers to include appropriate spiritual care in the care repertoire of a Muslim care recipient. It is assumed that the framework for a model of spirituality based on Islamic religious beliefs would help contextualise the relationship between spirituality and ageing Muslims. Not only challenges, but also the opportunities that old age provides for charting the spiritual journey have underpinned this model.

A model framework for mortality and health data classified by age, area, and time.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2006-03-01

This article sets out a modeling framework for modeling health outcomes over area, age, and time dimensions that takes account of spatial correlation, interactions between dimensions, and cohort as well as age effects. The goals of the framework include parsimony and parameter interpretability. Multivariate extensions may be made allowing interdependent or shared effects between different outcomes (e.g., ill health and mortality). A particular focus is on assessing the proportionality assumption whereby separate age and area effects multiply to produce age-area mortality or illness rates, and age-area interactions are assumed not to exist. A trivariate (mortality-health) application of the framework involves cross-sectional data in the 33 London boroughs, while a longitudinal univariate application involves deaths for the same areas over four 5-year periods starting in 1979.

Development and Correlates of Alcohol Use from Ages 13-20

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duncan, Susan C.; Gau, Jeff M.; Duncan, Terry E.; Strycker, Lisa A.

2011-01-01

This study examined alcohol use development from ages 13-20 years. The sample comprised 256 youth (50.4% female; 51.2% White, 48.8% African American) assessed annually for 6 years. A cohort-sequential latent growth model was used to model categorical alcohol use (non-use vs. use). Covariates included gender, race, income, parent marital status,…

Toward Reducing Ageism: PEACE (Positive Education about Aging and Contact Experiences) Model.

PubMed

Levy, Sheri R

2018-03-19

The population of older adults is growing worldwide. Negative ageism (negative attitudes and behavior toward older adults) is a serious international concern that negatively influences not only older adults but also individuals across the age continuum. This article proposes and examines the application of an integrative theoretical model across empirical evidence in the literature on ageism in psychology, medicine, social work, and sociology. The proposed Positive Education about Aging and Contact Experiences (PEACE) model focuses on 2 key contributing factors expected to reduce negative ageism: (a) education about aging including facts on aging along with positive older role models that dispel negative and inaccurate images of older adulthood; and (b) positive contact experiences with older adults that are individualized, provide or promote equal status, are cooperative, involve sharing of personal information, and are sanctioned within the setting. These 2 key contributing factors have the potential to be interconnected and work together to reduce negative stereotypes, aging anxiety, prejudice, and discrimination associated with older adults and aging. This model has implications for policies and programs that can improve the health and well-being of individuals, as well as expand the residential, educational, and career options of individuals across the age continuum.

A novel strategy for forensic age prediction by DNA methylation and support vector regression model

PubMed Central

Xu, Cheng; Qu, Hongzhu; Wang, Guangyu; Xie, Bingbing; Shi, Yi; Yang, Yaran; Zhao, Zhao; Hu, Lan; Fang, Xiangdong; Yan, Jiangwei; Feng, Lei

2015-01-01

High deviations resulting from prediction model, gender and population difference have limited age estimation application of DNA methylation markers. Here we identified 2,957 novel age-associated DNA methylation sites (P < 0.01 and R2 > 0.5) in blood of eight pairs of Chinese Han female monozygotic twins. Among them, nine novel sites (false discovery rate < 0.01), along with three other reported sites, were further validated in 49 unrelated female volunteers with ages of 20–80 years by Sequenom Massarray. A total of 95 CpGs were covered in the PCR products and 11 of them were built the age prediction models. After comparing four different models including, multivariate linear regression, multivariate nonlinear regression, back propagation neural network and support vector regression, SVR was identified as the most robust model with the least mean absolute deviation from real chronological age (2.8 years) and an average accuracy of 4.7 years predicted by only six loci from the 11 loci, as well as an less cross-validated error compared with linear regression model. Our novel strategy provides an accurate measurement that is highly useful in estimating the individual age in forensic practice as well as in tracking the aging process in other related applications. PMID:26635134

The Effect of Age on Characteristics and Mortality of Intracerebral Hemorrhage in the Oldest-Old.

PubMed

Forti, Paola; Maioli, Fabiola; Domenico Spampinato, Michele; Barbara, Carlotta; Nativio, Valeria; Coveri, Maura; Zoli, Marco; Simonetti, Luigi; Di Pasquale, Giuseppe; Procaccianti, Gaetano

2016-01-01

Incidence of acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) increases with age, but there is a lack of information about ICH characteristics in the oldest-old (age ≥85 years). In particular, there is a need for information about hematoma volume, which is included in most clinical scales for prediction of mortality in ICH patients. Many of these scales also assume that, independent of ICH characteristics, the oldest-old have a higher mortality than younger elderly patients (age 65-74 years). However, supporting evidence from cohort studies is limited. We investigated ICH characteristics of oldest-old subjects compared to young (<65 years), young-old (65-74 years) and old-old (75-84 years) subjects. We also investigated whether age is an independent mortality predictor in elderly (age ≥65 years) subjects with acute ICH. We retrospectively collected clinical and neuroimaging data of 383 subjects (age 34-104 years) with acute supratentorial primary ICH who were admitted to an Italian Stroke Unit (SU) between October 2007 and December 2014. Measured ICH characteristics included hematoma location, volume and intraventricular extension of hemorrhage on admission CT scan; admission Glasgow Coma Scale ≤8 and hematoma expansion (HE) measured on follow-up CT-scans obtained after 24 h. General linear models and logistic models were used to investigate the association of age with ICH characteristics. These models were adjusted for pre-admission characteristics, hematoma location and time from symptom onset to admission CT scan. Limited to elderly subjects, Cox models were used to investigate the association of age with in-SU and 1-year mortality: the model for in-SU mortality adjusted for pre-admission and ICH admission characteristics and the model for 1-year mortality additionally adjusted for functional status and disposition at SU discharge. Independent of pre-admission characteristics, hematoma location and time from symptom onset to admission CT-scan, oldest-old subjects had the highest admission hematoma volume (p < 0.01). Age was unrelated to all other ICH characteristics including HE. In elderly patients, multivariable adjusted risk of in-SU and 1-year mortality did not vary across age categories. Oldest-old subjects with acute supratentorial ICH have higher admission hematoma volume than young and young-old subjects but do not differ for other ICH characteristics. When taking into account confounding from ICH characteristics, risk of in-SU and 1-year mortality in elderly subjects with acute supratentorial ICH does not differ across age categories. Our findings question use of age as an independent criterion for stratification of mortality risk in elderly subjects with acute ICH. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Is there an association between advanced paternal age and endophenotype deficit levels in schizophrenia?

PubMed

Tsuang, Debby; Esterberg, Michelle; Braff, David; Calkins, Monica; Cadenhead, Kristin; Dobie, Dorcas; Freedman, Robert; Green, Michael F; Greenwood, Tiffany; Gur, Raquel; Gur, Ruben; Horan, William; Lazzeroni, Laura C; Light, Gregory A; Millard, Steven P; Olincy, Ann; Nuechterlein, Keith; Seidman, Larry; Siever, Larry; Silverman, Jeremy; Stone, William; Sprock, Joyce; Sugar, Catherine; Swerdlow, Neal; Tsuang, Ming; Turetsky, Bruce; Radant, Allen

2014-01-01

The children of older fathers have increased risks of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and among those who develop these disorders, those with older fathers present with more severe clinical symptoms. However, the influence of advanced paternal age on other important domains related to schizophrenia, such as quantitative endophenotype deficit levels, remains unknown. This study investigated the associations between paternal age and level of endophenotypic impairment in a well-characterized family-based sample from the Consortium on the Genetics of Schizophrenia (COGS). All families included at least one affected subject and one unaffected sibling. Subjects met criteria for schizophrenia (probands; n = 293) or were unaffected first-degree siblings of those probands (n = 382). Paternal age at the time of subjects' birth was documented. Subjects completed a comprehensive clinical assessment and a battery of tests that measured 16 endophenotypes. After controlling for covariates, potential paternal age-endophenotype associations were analyzed using one model that included probands alone and a second model that included both probands and unaffected siblings. Endophenotype deficits in the Identical Pairs version of the 4-digit Continuous Performance Test and in the Penn Computerized Neurocognitive Battery verbal memory test showed significant associations with paternal age. However, after correcting for multiple comparisons, no endophenotype was significantly associated with paternal age. These findings suggest that factors other than advanced paternal age at birth may account for endophenotypic deficit levels in schizophrenia.

Aggregate age-at-marriage patterns from individual mate-search heuristics.

PubMed

Todd, Peter M; Billari, Francesco C; Simão, Jorge

2005-08-01

The distribution of age at first marriage shows well-known strong regularities across many countries and recent historical periods. We accounted for these patterns by developing agent-based models that simulate the aggregate behavior of individuals who are searching for marriage partners. Past models assumed fully rational agents with complete knowledge of the marriage market; our simulated agents used psychologically plausible simple heuristic mate search rules that adjust aspiration levels on the basis of a sequence of encounters with potential partners. Substantial individual variation must be included in the models to account for the demographically observed age-at-marriage patterns.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEX HORMONES, SEX HORMONE BINDING GLOBULIN AND PERIPHERAL ARTERY DISEASE IN OLDER PERSONS

PubMed Central

Maggio, M; Cattabiani, C; Lauretani, F; Artoni, A; Bandinelli, S; Schiavi, G; Vignali, A; Volpi, R; Ceresini, G; Lippi, G; Aloe, R; De Vita, F; Giallauria, F; McDermott, MM; Ferrucci, L; Ceda, GP

2014-01-01

Objective The prevalence of peripheral artery disease (PAD) increases with aging and is higher in persons with metabolic syndrome and diabetes. PAD is associated with adverse outcomes, including frailty and disability. The protective effect of testosterone and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) for diabetes in men suggests that the biological activity of sex hormones may affect PAD, especially in older populations. Methods Nine hundred and twenty-one elderly subjects with data on SHBG, testosterone (T), estradiol (E2) were selected from InCHIANTI study. PAD was defined as an Ankle-Brachial Index (ABI) <0.90. Logistic regression models adjusted for age (Model 1), age, BMI, insulin, interleukin-6, physical activity, smoking, chronic diseases including metabolic syndrome (Model 2), and a final model including also sex hormones (Model 3) were performed to test the relationship between SHBG, sex hormones and PAD. Results The mean age (± SD) of the 419 men and 502 women was 75.0 ± 6.8 years (Sixty two participants (41 men, 21 women) had ABI<0.90. Men with PAD had SHBG levels lower than men without PAD (p=0.03). SHBG was negatively and independently associated with PAD in men (p=0.028). but not in women. The relationship was however attenuated after adjusting for sex hormones (p=0.07). The E2 was not significantly associated with PAD in both men and women. In women, but not in men, T was positively associated with PAD, even after adjusting for multiple confounders, including E2 (p=0.01). Conclusions Low SHBG and high T levels are significantly and independently associated with the presence of PAD in older men and women, respectively. PMID:23102785

The relationship between sex hormones, sex hormone binding globulin and peripheral artery disease in older persons.

PubMed

Maggio, M; Cattabiani, C; Lauretani, F; Artoni, A; Bandinelli, S; Schiavi, G; Vignali, A; Volpi, R; Ceresini, G; Lippi, G; Aloe, R; De Vita, F; Giallauria, F; McDermott, M M; Ferrucci, L; Ceda, G P

2012-12-01

The prevalence of peripheral artery disease (PAD) increases with aging and is higher in persons with metabolic syndrome and diabetes. PAD is associated with adverse outcomes, including frailty and disability. The protective effect of testosterone and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) for diabetes in men suggests that the biological activity of sex hormones may affect PAD, especially in older populations. Nine hundred and twenty-one elderly subjects with data on SHBG, testosterone (T), estradiol (E2) were selected from InCHIANTI study. PAD was defined as an Ankle-Brachial Index (ABI) < 0.90. Logistic regression models adjusted for age (Model 1), age, BMI, insulin, interleukin-6, physical activity, smoking, chronic diseases including metabolic syndrome (Model 2), and a final model including also sex hormones (Model 3) were performed to test the relationship between SHBG, sex hormones and PAD. The mean age (±SD) of the 419 men and 502 women was 75.0 ± 6.8 years. Sixty two participants (41 men, 21 women) had ABI < 0.90. Men with PAD had SHBG levels lower than men without PAD (p = 0.03). SHBG was negatively and independently associated with PAD in men (p = 0.028) but not in women. The relationship was however attenuated after adjusting for sex hormones (p = 0.07). The E2 was not significantly associated with PAD in both men and women. In women, but not in men, T was positively associated with PAD, even after adjusting for multiple confounders, including E2 (p = 0.01). Low SHBG and high T levels are significantly and independently associated with the presence of PAD in older men and women, respectively. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relative contributions of non-enzymatic glycation and cortical porosity on the fracture toughness of aging bone

PubMed Central

Tang, S.Y.; Vashishth, D.

2010-01-01

The risk of fracture increases with age due to the decline of bone mass and bone quality. One of the age-related changes in bone quality occurs through the formation and accumulation of advanced glycation end-products (AGEs) due to non-enzymatic glycation (NEG). However as a number of other changes including increased porosity occur with age and affect bone fragility, the relative contribution of AGEs on the fracture resistance of aging bone is unknown. Using a high-resolution nonlinear finite element model that incorporate cohesive elements and micro-computed tomography-based 3d meshes, we investigated the contribution of AGEs and cortical porosity on the fracture toughness of human bone. The results show that NEG caused a 52% reduction in propagation fracture toughness (R-curve slope). The combined effects of porosity and AGEs resulted in an 88% reduction in propagation toughness. These findings are consistent with previous experimental results. The model captured the age-related changes in the R-curve toughening by incorporating bone quantity and bone quality changes, and these simulations demonstrate the ability of the cohesive models to account for the irreversible dynamic crack growth processes affected by the changes in post-yield material behavior. By decoupling the matrix-level effects due to NEG and intracortical porosity, we are able to directly determine the effects of NEG on fracture toughness. The outcome of this study suggests that it may be important to include the age-related changes in the material level properties by using finite element analysis towards the prediction of fracture risk. PMID:21056419

Geographic variation in survival and migratory tendency among North American Common Mergansers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearce, J.M.; Reed, J.A.; Flint, Paul L.

2005-01-01

Movement ecology and demographic parameters for the Common Merganser (Mergus merganser americanus) in North America are poorly known. We used band-recovery data from five locations across North America spanning the years 1938-1998 to examine migratory patterns and estimate survival rates. We examined competing time-invariant, age-graduated models with program MARK to study sources of variation in survival and reporting probability. We considered age, sex, geographic location, and the use of nasal saddles on hatching year birds at one location as possible sources of variation. Year-of-banding was included as a covariate in a post-hoc analysis. We found that migratory tendency, defined as the average distance between banding and recovery locations, varied geographically. Similarly, all models accounting for the majority of variation in recovery and survival probabilities included location of banding. Models that included age and sex received less support, but we lacked sufficient data to adequately assess these parameters. Model-averaged estimates of annual survival ranged from 0.21 in Michigan to 0.82 in Oklahoma. Heterogeneity in migration tendency and survival suggests that demographic patterns may vary across geographic scales, with implications for the population dynamics of this species.

Non-Fickian dispersion of groundwater age

PubMed Central

Engdahl, Nicholas B.; Ginn, Timothy R.; Fogg, Graham E.

2014-01-01

We expand the governing equation of groundwater age to account for non-Fickian dispersive fluxes using continuous random walks. Groundwater age is included as an additional (fifth) dimension on which the volumetric mass density of water is distributed and we follow the classical random walk derivation now in five dimensions. The general solution of the random walk recovers the previous conventional model of age when the low order moments of the transition density functions remain finite at their limits and describes non-Fickian age distributions when the transition densities diverge. Previously published transition densities are then used to show how the added dimension in age affects the governing differential equations. Depending on which transition densities diverge, the resulting models may be nonlocal in time, space, or age and can describe asymptotic or pre-asymptotic dispersion. A joint distribution function of time and age transitions is developed as a conditional probability and a natural result of this is that time and age must always have identical transition rate functions. This implies that a transition density defined for age can substitute for a density in time and this has implications for transport model parameter estimation. We present examples of simulated age distributions from a geologically based, heterogeneous domain that exhibit non-Fickian behavior and show that the non-Fickian model provides better descriptions of the distributions than the Fickian model. PMID:24976651

The North Dakota mental health and aging education project: curriculum design and training outcomes for a train-the-trainer model.

PubMed

Fitzgerald, Margaret A; Chromy, Barbara; Philbrick, Candace A; Sanders, Gregory F; Muske, Kara L; Bratteli, Marlys

2009-01-01

A training curriculum on mental health and aging was developed and disseminated to 32 natural caregivers throughout a frontier state using a train-the-trainer model. Those certified as trainers included social workers, religious professionals, volunteers, long-term care employees, nurses, home health workers, and professional and informal caregivers. Trainers then utilized the materials assembled into toolkits to provide 1,813 hours of education in all eight regions of North Dakota. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of the training on the preparation of trainers to provide mental health and aging education. Several points of evaluation, including a pre/posttest to assess the trainers' knowledge, an appraisal of the self-perceived value of the education to the trainers, and an applied case study to ascertain the trainers' ability to apply what they had learned, demonstrated the benefits of this model.

Unraveling the Age Hardening Response in U-Nb Alloys

DOE PAGES

Hackenberg, Robert Errol; Hemphill, Geralyn M. Sewald; Forsyth, Robert Thomas; ...

2016-11-15

Complicating factors that have stymied understanding of uranium-niobium’s aging response are briefly reviewed, including (1) niobium inhomogeneity, (2) machining damage effects on tensile properties, (3) early-time transients of ductility increase, and (4) the variety of phase transformations. A simple Logistic-Arrhenius model was applied to predict yield and ultimate tensile strengths and tensile elongation of U-4Nb as a function of thermal age. Lastly, fits to each model yielded an apparent activation energy that was compared with phase transformation mechanisms.

Predictors and Neuropsychiatric Profile of Nucleus Basalis of Meynert Degeneration in Parkinson Disease

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

baseline were available for 228 PD subjects. In a logistic regression model adjusted for age and sex , Ch4 density was associated with lower risk of...events, there were no significant differences in age or sex (p>0.05). PD subjects with 2 or more psychotic events had significantly lower baseline Ch4...Aim 1 and 2 include use of linear regression models to adjust for age, sex , and other significant covariates. Aim 3 is a cross-sectional controlled

Counseling middle-aged women about physical activity using the stages of change.

PubMed

Dearden, Jennifer S; Sheahan, Sharon L

2002-11-01

To discuss application of the Stages of Change theoretical framework and provide clinical tips on exercise adherence among midlife women. Included is a checklist to assist the nurse practitioner (NP) in effectively delivering the message. Review of the current scientific literature on exercise adherence and the Stages of Change model. Middle-aged women comprise a unique population. Determining the woman's readiness for change using the Stages of Change model, NPs can routinely include appropriate exercise recommendations in their practices. Nurse practitioners are in a unique position to promote healthy behaviors by counseling women in midlife about adopting an active lifestyle. Exercise counseling is an essential component of healthcare, especially among middle-aged women who are experiencing physical, emotional, and social changes.

Anisotropic models of the upper mantle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Regan, J.; Anderson, D. L.

1983-01-01

Long period Rayleigh wave and Love wave dispersion data, particularly for oceanic areas, were not simultaneously satisfied by an isotropic structure. Available phase and group velocity data are inverted by a procedure which includes the effects of transverse anisotropy, an elastic dispersion, sphericity, and gravity. The resulting models, for the average Earth, average ocean and oceanic regions divided according to the age of the ocean floor, are quite different from previous results which ignore the above effects. The models show a low velocity zone with age dependent anisotropy and velocities higher than derived in previous surface wave studies. The correspondence between the anisotropy variation with age and a physical model based on flow aligned olivine is suggested.

The AgroEcoSystem (AgES) response-function model simulates layered soil water dynamics in semi-arid Colorado: sensitivity and calibration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Simulation of vertical soil hydrology is a critical component of simulating even more complex soil water dynamics in space and time, including land-atmosphere and subsurface interactions. The AgroEcoSystem (AgES) model is defined here as a single land unit implementation of the full AgES-W (Watershe...

The North Dakota Mental Health and Aging Education Project: Curriculum Design and Training Outcomes for a Train-the-Trainer Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzgerald, Margaret A.; Chromy, Barbara; Philbrick, Candace A.; Sanders, Gregory F.; Muske, Kara L.; Bratteli, Marlys

2009-01-01

A training curriculum on mental health and aging was developed and disseminated to 32 natural caregivers throughout a frontier state using a train-the-trainer model. Those certified as trainers included social workers, religious professionals, volunteers, long-term care employees, nurses, home health workers, and professional and informal…

Early Math Trajectories: Low-Income Children's Mathematics Knowledge from Ages 4 to 11

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rittle-Johnson, Bethany; Fyfe, Emily R.; Hofer, Kerry G.; Farran, Dale C.

2017-01-01

Early mathematics knowledge is a strong predictor of later academic achievement, but children from low-income families enter school with weak mathematics knowledge. An early math trajectories model is proposed and evaluated within a longitudinal study of 517 low-income American children from ages 4 to 11. This model includes a broad range of math…

Early Math Trajectories: Low-Income Children's Mathematics Knowledge from Age 4 to 11

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rittle-Johnson, Bethany; Fyfe, Emily R.; Hofer, Kerry G.; Farran, Dale C.

2016-01-01

Early mathematics knowledge is a strong predictor of later academic achievement, but children from low-income families enter school with weak mathematics knowledge. An Early Math Trajectories model is proposed and evaluated within a longitudinal study of 517 low-income American children from age 4 to 11. This model includes a broad range of math…

Factors associated with self-medication in Spain: a cross-sectional study in different age groups.

PubMed

Niclós, Gracia; Olivar, Teresa; Rodilla, Vicent

2018-06-01

The identification of factors which may influence a patient's decision to self-medicate. Descriptive, cross-sectional study of the adult population (at least 16 years old), using data from the 2009 European Health Interview Survey in Spain, which included 22 188 subjects. Logistic regression models enabled us to estimate the effect of each analysed variable on self-medication. In total, 14 863 (67%) individuals reported using medication (prescribed and non-prescribed) and 3274 (22.0%) of them self-medicated. Using logistic regression and stratifying by age, four different models have been constructed. Our results include different variables in each of the models to explain self-medication, but the one that appears on all four models is education level. Age is the other important factor which influences self-medication. Self-medication is strongly associated with factors related to socio-demographic, such as sex, educational level or age, as well as several health factors such as long-standing illness or physical activity. When our data are compared to those from previous Spanish surveys carried out in 2003 and 2006, we can conclude that self-medication is increasing in Spain. © 2017 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

Advancing LGBT Elder Policy and Support Services: The Massachusetts Model.

PubMed

Krinsky, Lisa; Cahill, Sean R

2017-12-01

The Massachusetts-based LGBT Aging Project has trained elder service providers in affirming and culturally competent care for LGBT older adults, supported development of LGBT-friendly meal programs, and advanced LGBT equality under aging policy. Working across sectors, this innovative model launched the country's first statewide Legislative Commission on Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Aging. Advocates are working with policymakers to implement key recommendations, including cultural competency training and data collection in statewide networks of elder services. The LGBT Aging Project's success provides a template for improving services and policy for LGBT older adults throughout the country.

A control-oriented lithium-ion battery pack model for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle cycle-life studies and system design with consideration of health management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordoba-Arenas, Andrea; Onori, Simona; Rizzoni, Giorgio

2015-04-01

A crucial step towards the large-scale introduction of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the market is to reduce the cost of its battery systems. Currently, battery cycle- and calendar-life represents one of the greatest uncertainties in the total life-cycle cost of battery systems. The field of battery aging modeling and prognosis has seen progress with respect to model-based and data-driven approaches to describe the aging of battery cells. However, in real world applications cells are interconnected and aging propagates. The propagation of aging from one cell to others exhibits itself in a reduced battery system life. This paper proposes a control-oriented battery pack model that describes the propagation of aging and its effect on the life span of battery systems. The modeling approach is such that it is able to predict pack aging, thermal, and electrical dynamics under actual PHEV operation, and includes consideration of random variability of the cells, electrical topology and thermal management. The modeling approach is based on the interaction between dynamic system models of the electrical and thermal dynamics, and dynamic models of cell aging. The system-level state-of-health (SOH) is assessed based on knowledge of individual cells SOH, pack electrical topology and voltage equalization approach.

Aging models of acute seizures and epilepsy.

PubMed

Kelly, Kevin M

2010-01-01

Aged animals have been used by researchers to better understand the differences between the young and the aged brain and how these differences may provide insight into the mechanisms of acute seizures and epilepsy in the elderly. To date, there have been relatively few studies dedicated to the modeling of acute seizures and epilepsy in aged, healthy animals. Inherent challenges to this area of research include the costs associated with the purchase and maintenance of older animals and, at times, the unexpected and potentially confounding comorbidities associated with aging. However, recent studies using a variety of in vivo and in vitro models of acute seizures and epilepsy in mice and rats have built upon early investigations in the field, all of which has provided an expanded vision of seizure generation and epileptogenesis in the aged brain. Results of these studies could potentially translate to new and tailored interventional approaches that limit or prevent the development of epilepsy in the elderly.

Peritoneal Fluid Transport rather than Peritoneal Solute Transport Associates with Dialysis Vintage and Age of Peritoneal Dialysis Patients.

PubMed

Waniewski, Jacek; Antosiewicz, Stefan; Baczynski, Daniel; Poleszczuk, Jan; Pietribiasi, Mauro; Lindholm, Bengt; Wankowicz, Zofia

2016-01-01

During peritoneal dialysis (PD), the peritoneal membrane undergoes ageing processes that affect its function. Here we analyzed associations of patient age and dialysis vintage with parameters of peritoneal transport of fluid and solutes, directly measured and estimated based on the pore model, for individual patients. Thirty-three patients (15 females; age 60 (21-87) years; median time on PD 19 (3-100) months) underwent sequential peritoneal equilibration test. Dialysis vintage and patient age did not correlate. Estimation of parameters of the two-pore model of peritoneal transport was performed. The estimated fluid transport parameters, including hydraulic permeability (LpS), fraction of ultrasmall pores (α u), osmotic conductance for glucose (OCG), and peritoneal absorption, were generally independent of solute transport parameters (diffusive mass transport parameters). Fluid transport parameters correlated whereas transport parameters for small solutes and proteins did not correlate with dialysis vintage and patient age. Although LpS and OCG were lower for older patients and those with long dialysis vintage, αu was higher. Thus, fluid transport parameters--rather than solute transport parameters--are linked to dialysis vintage and patient age and should therefore be included when monitoring processes linked to ageing of the peritoneal membrane.

Prediction of new onset of end stage renal disease in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus - a population-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wan, Eric Yuk Fai; Fong, Daniel Yee Tak; Fung, Colman Siu Cheung; Yu, Esther Yee Tak; Chin, Weng Yee; Chan, Anca Ka Chun; Lam, Cindy Lo Kuen

2017-08-01

Since diabetes mellitus (DM) is the leading cause of end stage renal disease (ESRD), this study aimed to develop a 5-year ESRD risk prediction model among Chinese patients with Type 2 DM (T2DM) in primary care. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 149,333 Chinese adult T2DM primary care patients without ESRD in 2010. Using the derivation cohort over a median of 5 years follow-up, the gender-specific models including the interaction effect between predictors and age were derived using Cox regression with a forward stepwise approach. Harrell's C-statistic and calibration plot were applied to the validation cohort to assess discrimination and calibration of the models. Prediction models showed better discrimination with Harrell's C-statistics of 0.866 (males) and 0.862 (females) and calibration power from the plots than other established models. The predictors included age, usages of anti-hypertensive drugs, anti-glucose drugs, and Hemogloblin A1c, blood pressure, urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Specific predictors for male were smoking and presence of sight threatening diabetic retinopathy while additional predictors for female included longer duration of diabetes and quadratic effect of body mass index. Interaction factors with age showed a greater weighting of insulin and urine ACR in younger males, and eGFR in younger females. Our newly developed gender-specific models provide a more accurate 5-year ESRD risk predictions for Chinese diabetic primary care patients than other existing models. The models included several modifiable risk factors that clinicians can use to counsel patients, and to target at in the delivery of care to patients.

Bespoke program design for school-aged therapy disability service delivery.

PubMed

Weatherill, Pamela; Bahn, Susanne; Cooper, Trudi

2012-01-01

This article uses the evaluation of a school-aged therapy service for children with disabilities in Western Australia to investigate models of service delivery. The current literature on family-centered practice, multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches, and 4 models of service are reviewed. The models include the life needs model, the relational goal-orientated model of optimal service delivery to children and families, the quality of life model, and the collaborative model of service delivery. Analysis of the data is presented together with a bespoke model of service delivery for children with disabilities, arguing that local contexts benefit from custom-made service design.

Hyperactivity in the Gunn rat model of neonatal jaundice: age-related attenuation and emergence of gait deficits

PubMed Central

Stanford, John A.; Shuler, Jeffrey M.; Fowler, Stephen C.; Stanford, Kimberly G.; Ma, Delin; Bittel, Douglas C.; Le Pichon, Jean-Baptiste; Shapiro, Steven M.

2014-01-01

Background Neonatal jaundice resulting from elevated unconjugated bilirubin (UCB) occurs in 60–80% of newborn infants. Although mild jaundice is generally considered harmless, little is known about its long-term consequences. Recent studies have linked mild bilirubin-induced neurological dysfunction (BIND) with a range of neurological syndromes, including attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder. The goal of this study was to measure BIND across the lifespan in the Gunn rat model of BIND. Methods Using a sensitive force plate actometer, we measured locomotor activity and gait in jaundiced (jj) Gunn rats versus their non-jaundiced (Nj) littermates. Data were analyzed for young adult (3–4 months), early middle-aged (9–10 months), and late middle-aged (17–20 months) male rats. Results jj rats exhibited lower body weights at all ages and a hyperactivity that resolved at 17–20 months of age. Increased propulsive force and gait velocity accompanied hyperactivity during locomotor bouts at 9–10 months in jj rats. Stride length did not differ between the two groups at this age. Hyperactivity normalized and gait deficits, including decreased stride length, propulsive force, and gait velocity, emerged in the 17–20-month-old jj rats. Conclusions These results demonstrate that, in aging, hyperactivity decreases with the onset of gait deficits in the Gunn rat model of BIND. PMID:25518009

A dynamic model of the marriage market-part 1: matching algorithm based on age preference and availability.

PubMed

Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

2013-09-01

The matching algorithm in a dynamic marriage market model is described in this first of two companion papers. Iterative Proportional Fitting is used to find a marriage function (an age distribution of new marriages for both sexes), in a stable reference population, that is consistent with the one-sex age distributions of new marriages, and includes age preference. The one-sex age distributions (which are the marginals of the two-sex distribution) are based on the Picrate model, and age preference on a normal distribution, both of which may be adjusted by choice of parameter values. For a population that is perturbed from the reference state, the total number of new marriages is found as the harmonic mean of target totals for men and women obtained by applying reference population marriage rates to the perturbed population. The marriage function uses the age preference function, assumed to be the same for the reference and the perturbed populations, to distribute the total number of new marriages. The marriage function also has an availability factor that varies as the population changes with time, where availability depends on the supply of unmarried men and women. To simplify exposition, only first marriage is treated, and the algorithm is illustrated by application to Zambia. In the second paper, remarriage and dissolution are included. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of normal aging on visuo-motor plasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roller, Carrie A.; Cohen, Helen S.; Kimball, Kay T.; Bloomberg, Jacob J.

2002-01-01

Normal aging is associated with declines in neurologic function. Uncompensated visual and vestibular problems may have dire consequences including dangerous falls. Visuo-motor plasticity is a form of behavioral neural plasticity, which is important in the process of adapting to visual or vestibular alteration, including those changes due to pathology, pharmacotherapy, surgery or even entry into microgravity or an underwater environment. To determine the effects of aging on visuo-motor plasticity, we chose the simple and easily measured paradigm of visual-motor rearrangement created by using visual displacement prisms while throwing small balls at a target. Subjects threw balls before, during and after wearing a set of prisms which displace the visual scene by twenty degrees to the right. Data obtained during adaptation were modeled using multilevel modeling techniques for 73 subjects, aged 20 to 80 years. We found no statistically significant difference in measures of visuo-motor plasticity with advancing age. Further studies are underway examining variable practice training as a potential mechanism for enhancing this form of behavioral neural plasticity.

Children’s Education and Parents’ Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms

PubMed Central

Lee, Chioun; Glei, Dana A.; Goldman, Noreen; Weinstein, Maxine

2017-01-01

Using five waves of the Taiwanese Longitudinal Study of Aging (1996–2011), we investigate (a) the association between family members’ education and the age trajectories of individuals’ depressive symptoms and (b) gender differences in those relationships. Our examination is guided by several theoretical frameworks, including social capital, social control, age-as-leveler, and resource substitution. Nested models show that having a more educated father is associated with lower depressive symptoms, but the relationship disappears after controlling for respondent’s education. Including spouse’s education attenuates the coefficient for respondent’s education. A similar pattern appears when children’s education is added to the model. Among all the family members, children’s education has the strongest association with depressive symptoms, with a similar magnitude for both genders, although its strength gradually weakens as respondents age. Our findings suggest the importance of the transfer of resources from children to parents and how it may affect mental health at older ages. PMID:28661765

Metal-rich, Metal-poor: Updated Stellar Population Models for Old Stellar Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conroy, Charlie; Villaume, Alexa; van Dokkum, Pieter G.; Lind, Karin

2018-02-01

We present updated stellar population models appropriate for old ages (>1 Gyr) and covering a wide range in metallicities (‑1.5 ≲ [Fe/H] ≲ 0.3). These models predict the full spectral variation associated with individual element abundance variation as a function of metallicity and age. The models span the optical–NIR wavelength range (0.37–2.4 μm), include a range of initial mass functions, and contain the flexibility to vary 18 individual elements including C, N, O, Mg, Si, Ca, Ti, and Fe. To test the fidelity of the models, we fit them to integrated light optical spectra of 41 Galactic globular clusters (GCs). The value of testing models against GCs is that their ages, metallicities, and detailed abundance patterns have been derived from the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram in combination with high-resolution spectroscopy of individual stars. We determine stellar population parameters from fits to all wavelengths simultaneously (“full spectrum fitting”), and demonstrate explicitly with mock tests that this approach produces smaller uncertainties at fixed signal-to-noise ratio than fitting a standard set of 14 line indices. Comparison of our integrated-light results to literature values reveals good agreement in metallicity, [Fe/H]. When restricting to GCs without prominent blue horizontal branch populations, we also find good agreement with literature values for ages, [Mg/Fe], [Si/Fe], and [Ti/Fe].

The epidemiology of pelvic floor disorders and childbirth: an update

PubMed Central

Hallock, Jennifer L.; Handa, Victoria L.

2015-01-01

SYNOPSIS Using a life span model, this article presents new scientific findings regarding risk factors for pelvic floor disorders (PFDs), with a focus on the role of childbirth in the development of single or multiple co-existing PFDs. Phase I of the life span model includes predisposing factors such as genetic predisposition and race. Phase II of the model includes inciting factors such as obstetric events. Prolapse, urinary incontinence (UI) and fecal incontinence (FI) are more common among vaginally parous women, although the impact of vaginal delivery on risk of FI is less dramatic than for prolapse and UI. Finally, Phase III includes intervening factors such as age and obesity. Both age and obesity are associated with prevalence of PFDs. The prevention and treatment of obesity is an important component to PFD prevention. PMID:26880504

Identifying the most appropriate age threshold for TNM stage grouping of well-differentiated thyroid cancer.

PubMed

Hendrickson-Rebizant, J; Sigvaldason, H; Nason, R W; Pathak, K A

2015-08-01

Age is integrated in most risk stratification systems for well-differentiated thyroid cancer (WDTC). The most appropriate age threshold for stage grouping of WDTC is debatable. The objective of this study was to evaluate the best age threshold for stage grouping by comparing multivariable models designed to evaluate the independent impact of various prognostic factors, including age based stage grouping, on the disease specific survival (DSS) of our population-based cohort. Data from population-based thyroid cancer cohort of 2125 consecutive WDTC, diagnosed during 1970-2010, with a median follow-up of 11.5 years, was used to calculate DSS using the Kaplan Meier method. Multivariable analysis with Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess independent impact of different prognostic factors on DSS. The Akaike information criterion (AIC), a measure of statistical model fit, was used to identify the most appropriate age threshold model. Delta AIC, Akaike weight, and evidence ratios were calculated to compare the relative strength of different models. The mean age of the patients was 47.3 years. DSS of the cohort was 95.6% and 92.8% at 10 and 20 years respectively. A threshold of 55 years, with the lowest AIC, was identified as the best model. Akaike weight indicated an 85% chance that this age threshold is the best among the compared models, and is 16.8 times more likely to be the best model as compared to a threshold of 45 years. The age threshold of 55 years was found to be the best for TNM stage grouping. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematic analysis of the gerontome reveals links between aging and age-related diseases

PubMed Central

Fernandes, Maria; Wan, Cen; Tacutu, Robi; Barardo, Diogo; Rajput, Ashish; Wang, Jingwei; Thoppil, Harikrishnan; Thornton, Daniel; Yang, Chenhao; Freitas, Alex

2016-01-01

Abstract In model organisms, over 2,000 genes have been shown to modulate aging, the collection of which we call the ‘gerontome’. Although some individual aging-related genes have been the subject of intense scrutiny, their analysis as a whole has been limited. In particular, the genetic interaction of aging and age-related pathologies remain a subject of debate. In this work, we perform a systematic analysis of the gerontome across species, including human aging-related genes. First, by classifying aging-related genes as pro- or anti-longevity, we define distinct pathways and genes that modulate aging in different ways. Our subsequent comparison of aging-related genes with age-related disease genes reveals species-specific effects with strong overlaps between aging and age-related diseases in mice, yet surprisingly few overlaps in lower model organisms. We discover that genetic links between aging and age-related diseases are due to a small fraction of aging-related genes which also tend to have a high network connectivity. Other insights from our systematic analysis include assessing how using datasets with genes more or less studied than average may result in biases, showing that age-related disease genes have faster molecular evolution rates and predicting new aging-related drugs based on drug-gene interaction data. Overall, this is the largest systems-level analysis of the genetics of aging to date and the first to discriminate anti- and pro-longevity genes, revealing new insights on aging-related genes as a whole and their interactions with age-related diseases. PMID:28175300

Career Preparation: A Curriculum in Mental Health and Aging for Service Providers. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rich, Thomas A.; And Others

This document contains a final report of a project which developed a model multidisciplinary graduate curriculum in mental health and aging. The introductory chapter, "Career Preparation: A Curriculum in Mental Health and Aging for Service Providers" (Thomas A. Rich, et al.), includes background information and discussions of the curriculum…

Integration Experiences Casebook: Program Ideas in Aging and Developmental Disabilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Janicki, Matthew P.; Keefe, Robert M.

An assortment of 38 case studies illustrates efforts to integrate elderly individuals with developmental disabilities into generic aging services and into community life. The case studies include models and practice experiences that aided seniors to retire, participate in programs and services, and become part of their community's aging network.…

The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

PubMed

Zaehle, Sönke; Sitch, Stephen; Prentice, I Colin; Liski, Jari; Cramer, Wolfgang; Erhard, Markus; Hickler, Thomas; Smith, Benjamin

2006-08-01

We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.

High fidelity computational characterization of the mechanical response of thermally aged polycarbonate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zesheng; Zhang, Lili; Jasa, John; Li, Wenlong; Gazonas, George; Negahban, Mehrdad

2017-07-01

A representative all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) system of polycarbonate (PC) is built and conditioned to capture and predict the behaviours of PC in response to a broad range of thermo-mechanical loadings for various thermal aging. The PC system is constructed to have a distribution of molecular weights comparable to a widely used commercial PC (LEXAN 9034), and thermally conditioned to produce models for aged and unaged PC. The MD responses of these models are evaluated through comparisons to existing experimental results carried out at much lower loading rates, but done over a broad range of temperatures and loading modes. These experiments include monotonic extension/compression/shear, unilaterally and bilaterally confined compression, and load-reversal during shear. It is shown that the MD simulations show both qualitative and quantitative similarity with the experimental response. The quantitative similarity is evaluated by comparing the dilatational response under bilaterally confined compression, the shear flow viscosity and the equivalent yield stress. The consistency of the in silico response to real laboratory experiments strongly suggests that the current PC models are physically and mechanically relevant and potentially can be used to investigate thermo-mechanical response to loading conditions that would not easily be possible. These MD models may provide valuable insight into the molecular sources of certain observations, and could possibly offer new perspectives on how to develop constitutive models that are based on better understanding the response of PC under complex loadings. To this latter end, the models are used to predict the response of PC to complex loading modes that would normally be difficult to do or that include characteristics that would be difficult to measure. These include the responses of unaged and aged PC to unilaterally confined extension/compression, cyclic uniaxial/shear loadings, and saw-tooth extension/compression/shear.

Multi-tissue DNA methylation age: Molecular relationships and perspectives for advancing biomarker utility.

PubMed

Nwanaji-Enwerem, Jamaji C; Weisskopf, Marc G; Baccarelli, Andrea A

2018-04-23

The multi-tissue DNA methylation estimator of chronological age (DNAm-age) has been associated with a wide range of exposures and health outcomes. Still, it is unclear how DNAm-age can have such broad relationships and how it can be best utilized as a biomarker. Understanding DNAm-age's molecular relationships is a promising approach to address this critical knowledge gap. In this review, we discuss the existing literature regarding DNAm-age's molecular relationships in six major categories: animal model systems, cancer processes, cellular aging processes, immune system processes, metabolic processes, and nucleic acid processes. We also present perspectives regarding the future of DNAm-age research, including the need to translate a greater number of ongoing research efforts to experimental and animal model systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Business of Anti-Aging Science.

PubMed

de Magalhães, João Pedro; Stevens, Michael; Thornton, Daniel

2017-11-01

Age-related conditions are the leading causes of death and health-care costs. Reducing the rate of aging would have enormous medical and financial benefits. Myriad genes and pathways are known to regulate aging in model organisms, fostering a new crop of anti-aging companies. Approaches range from drug discovery efforts to big-data methods and direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies. Challenges and pitfalls of commercialization include reliance on findings from short-lived model organisms, poor biological understanding of aging, and hurdles in performing clinical trials for aging. A large number of potential aging-associated interventions and targets exist, but given the long validation times only a small fraction can be explored for clinical applications. If even one company succeeds, however, the impact will be huge. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The normative dimensions of extending the human lifespan by age-related biomedical innovations.

PubMed

Ehni, Hans-Joerg; Marckmann, Georg

2008-10-01

The current normative debate on age-related biomedical innovations and the extension of the human lifespan has important shortcomings. Mainly, the complexity of the different normative dimensions relevant for ethical and/or juridicial norms is not fully developed and the normative quality of teleological and deontological arguments is not properly distinguished. This article addresses some of these shortcomings and develops the outline of a more comprehensive normative framework covering all relevant dimensions. Such a frame necessarily has to include conceptions of a good life on the individual and societal levels. Furthermore, as a third dimension, a model for the access to and the just distribution of age-related biomedical innovations and technologies extending the human lifespan will be developed. It is argued that such a model has to include the different levels of the general philosophical theories of distributive justice, including social rights and theories of just health care. Furthermore, it has to show how these theories can be applied to the problem area of aging and extending the human lifespan.

Age-Associated Pathology in Rhesus Macaques (Macaca mulatta)

PubMed Central

Simmons, H. A.

2018-01-01

The rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) is one of the most extensively used nonhuman primate models for human diseases. This article presents a literature review focusing on major organ systems and age-associated conditions in humans and primates, combined with information from the Wisconsin National Primate Research Center Electronic Health Record database to highlight and contrast age-associated lesions in geriatric rhesus macaques with younger cohorts. Rhesus macaques are excellent models for age-associated conditions, including diabetes, osteoarthritis, endometriosis, visual accommodation, hypertension, osteoporosis, and amyloidosis. Adenocarcinoma of the large intestine (ileocecocolic junction, cecum, and colon) is the most common spontaneous neoplasm in the rhesus macaque. A combination of cross-sectional and longitudinal studies is required to truly define mechanisms of maturation, aging, and the pathology of age-associated conditions in macaques and thus humans. The rhesus macaque is and will continue to be an appropriate and valuable model for investigation of the mechanisms and treatment of age-associated diseases. PMID:26864889

Method, system, and computer-readable medium for determining performance characteristics of an object undergoing one or more arbitrary aging conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gering, Kevin L.

A method, system, and computer-readable medium are described for characterizing performance loss of an object undergoing an arbitrary aging condition. Baseline aging data may be collected from the object for at least one known baseline aging condition over time, determining baseline multiple sigmoid model parameters from the baseline data, and performance loss of the object may be determined over time through multiple sigmoid model parameters associated with the object undergoing the arbitrary aging condition using a differential deviation-from-baseline approach from the baseline multiple sigmoid model parameters. The system may include an object, monitoring hardware configured to sample performance characteristics ofmore » the object, and a processor coupled to the monitoring hardware. The processor is configured to determine performance loss for the arbitrary aging condition from a comparison of the performance characteristics of the object deviating from baseline performance characteristics associated with a baseline aging condition.« less

A systems biology approach to Down syndrome: identification of Notch/Wnt dysregulation in a model of stem cells aging.

PubMed

Cairney, C J; Sanguinetti, G; Ranghini, E; Chantry, A D; Nostro, M C; Bhattacharyya, A; Svendsen, C N; Keith, W N; Bellantuono, I

2009-04-01

Stem cells are central to the development and maintenance of many tissues. This is due to their capacity for extensive proliferation and differentiation into effector cells. More recently it has been shown that the proliferative and differentiative ability of stem cells decreases with age, suggesting that this may play a role in tissue aging. Down syndrome (DS), is associated with many of the signs of premature tissue aging including T-cell deficiency, increased incidence of early Alzheimer-type, Myelodysplastic-type disease and leukaemia. Previously we have shown that both hematopoietic (HSC) and neural stem cells (NSC) in patients affected by DS showed signs of accelerated aging. In this study we tested the hypothesis that changes in gene expression in HSC and NSC of patients affected by DS reflect changes occurring in stem cells with age. The profiles of genes expressed in HSC and NSC from DS patients highlight pathways associated with cellular aging including a downregulation of DNA repair genes and increases in proapoptotic genes, s-phase cell cycle genes, inflammation and angiogenesis genes. Interestingly, Notch signaling was identified as a potential hub, which when deregulated may drive stem cell aging. These data suggests that DS is a valuable model to study early events in stem cell aging.

OAKSIM: An individual-tree growth and yield simulator for managed, even-aged, upland oak stands

Treesearch

Donald E. Hilt; Donald E. Hilt

1985-01-01

OAKSIM is an individual-tree growth and yield simulator for managed, even-aged, upland oak stands. Growth and yield projections for various thinning alternatives can be made with OAKSIM for a period of up to 50 years. Simulator components include an individual-tree diameter growth model, a mortality model, height prediction equations, bark ratio equations, a taper-...

[Development of forecasting models for fatal road traffic injuries].

PubMed

Tan, Aichun; Tian, Danping; Huang, Yuanxiu; Gao, Lin; Deng, Xin; Li, Li; He, Qiong; Chen, Tianmu; Hu, Guoqing; Wu, Jing

2014-02-01

To develop the forecasting models for fatal road traffic injuries and to provide evidence for predicting the future trends on road traffic injuries. Data on the mortality of road traffic injury including factors as gender and age in different countries, were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Other information on GDP per capita, urbanization, motorization and education were collected from online resources of World Bank, WHO, the United Nations Population Division and other agencies. We fitted logarithmic models of road traffic injury mortality by gender and age group, including predictors of GDP per capita, urbanization, motorization and education. Sex- and age-specific forecasting models developed by WHO that including GDP per capita, education and time etc. were also fitted. Coefficient of determination(R(2)) was used to compare the performance between our modes and WHO models. 2 626 sets of data were collected from 153 countries/regions for both genders, between 1965 and 2010. The forecasting models of road traffic injury mortality based on GDP per capita, motorization, urbanization and education appeared to be statistically significant(P < 0.001), and the coefficients of determination for males at the age groups of 0-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65+ were 22.7% , 31.1%, 51.8%, 52.3%, 44.9%, 41.8%, 40.1%, 25.5%, respectively while the coefficients for these age groups in women were 22.9%, 32.6%, 51.1%, 49.3%, 41.3%, 35.9%, 30.7%, 20.1%, respectively. The WHO models that were based on the GDP per capita, education and time variables were statistically significant (P < 0.001)and the coefficients of determination were 14.9% , 22.0%, 31.5%, 33.1% , 30.7%, 28.5%, 27.7% and 17.8% for males, but 14.1%, 20.6%, 30.4%, 31.8%, 26.7%, 24.3%, 17.3% and 8.8% for females, respectively. The forecasting models that we developed seemed to be better than those developed by WHO.

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and sex classes. In addition, our sensitivity analysis suggests that focusing monitoring towards changes in demographic rates might be more feasible than monitoring abundance in many situations where data on population age- and sex structure can be collected.

Age model for a continuous, ca 250-ka Quaternary lacustrine record from Bear Lake, Utah-Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colman, Steven M.; Kaufman, D.S.; Bright, Jordon; Heil, C.; King, J.W.; Dean, W.E.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Forester, R.M.; Bischoff, J.L.; Perkins, Marie; McGeehin, J.P.

2006-01-01

The Quaternary sediments sampled by continuous 120-m-long drill cores from Bear Lake (Utah-Idaho) comprise one of the longest lacustrine sequences recovered from an extant lake. The cores serve as a good case study for the construction of an age model for sequences that extend beyond the range of radiocarbon dating. From a variety of potential age indicators, we selected a combination of radiocarbon ages, one magnetic excursion (correlated to a standard sequence), and a single Uranium-series age to develop an initial data set. The reliability of the excursion and U-series data require consideration of their position with respect to sediments of inferred interglacial character, but not direct correlation with other paleoclimate records. Data omitted from the age model include amino acid age estimates, which have a large amount of scatter, and tephrochronology correlations, which have relatively large uncertainties. Because the initial data set was restricted to the upper half of the BL00-1 core, we inferred additional ages by direct correlation to the independently dated paleoclimate record from Devils Hole. We developed an age model for the entire core using statistical methods that consider both the uncertainties of the original data and that of the curve-fitting process, with a combination of our initial data set and the climate correlations as control points. This age model represents our best estimate of the chronology of deposition in Bear Lake. Because the age model contains assumptions about the correlation of Bear Lake to other climate records, the model cannot be used to address some paleoclimate questions, such as phase relationships with other areas.

THE TRANSMISSION AND PERSISTENCE OF ‘URBAN LEGENDS’: SOCIOLOGICAL APPLICATION OF AGE-STRUCTURED EPIDEMIC MODELS

PubMed Central

NOYMER, ANDREW

2009-01-01

This paper describes two related epidemic models of rumor transmission in an age-structured population. Rumors share with communicable disease certain basic aspects, which means that formal models of epidemics may be applied to the transmission of rumors. The results show that rumors may become entrenched very quickly and persist for a long time, even when skeptics are modeled to take an active role in trying to convince others that the rumor is false. This is a macrophenomeon, because individuals eventually cease to believe the rumor, but are replaced by new recruits. This replacement of former believers by new ones is an aspect of all the models, but the approach to stability is quicker, and involves smaller chance of extinction, in the model where skeptics actively try to counter the rumor, as opposed to the model where interest is naturally lost by believers. Skeptics hurt their own cause. The result shows that including age, or a variable for which age is a proxy (e.g., experience), can improve model fidelity and yield important insights. PMID:20351799

Age Variation in the Association Between Obesity and Mortality in Adults.

PubMed

Wang, Zhiqiang; Peng, Yang; Liu, Meina

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the previously reported finding that the association between obesity and mortality strengthens with increasing age. The data were derived from the National Health Interview Survey. Age-specific hazard ratios of mortality for grade 2/3 obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m 2 ), relative to a BMI of 18.5 kg/m 2 to < 25 kg/m 2 , were calculated by using a flexible parametric survival model (240,184 white men) and Cox proportional hazard models (51,697 matched pairs). When the model included interaction terms between obesity and age at the survey, hazard ratios appeared to increase with age if those interaction terms were ignored by fixing age at the survey as a single value. However, when recalculated for adults with various ages at the survey, according to model specifications, hazard ratios were higher for younger adults than for older adults with the same follow-up duration. Based on matched data, hazard ratios were also higher for younger adults (2.14 [95% CI: 1.90-2.40] for those 40-49 years of age) than for older adults (1.22 [95%: 0.91-1.63] for those 90+ years of age). For any given follow-up duration, the association between obesity and mortality weakens with age. The previously reported strengthening of the obesity-mortality association with increasing age was caused by the failure to take all the model specifications into consideration when calculating adjusted hazard ratios. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Mitochondria and Cardiovascular Aging

PubMed Central

Dai, Dao-Fu; Ungvari, Zoltan

2013-01-01

Old age is a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. Several lines of evidence in experimental animal models have indicated the central role of mitochondria both in lifespan determination and cardiovascular aging. In this article we review the evidence supporting the role of mitochondrial oxidative stress, mitochondrial damage and biogenesis as well as the crosstalk between mitochondria and cellular signaling in cardiac and vascular aging. Intrinsic cardiac aging in the murine model closely recapitulates age-related cardiac changes in humans (left ventricular hypertrophy, fibrosis and diastolic dysfunction), while the phenotype of vascular aging include endothelial dysfunction, reduced vascular elasticity and chronic vascular inflammation. Both cardiac and vascular aging involve neurohormonal signaling (e.g. renin-angiotensin, adrenergic, insulin-IGF1 signaling) and cell-autonomous mechanisms. The potential therapeutic strategies to improve mitochondrial function in aging and cardiovascular diseases are also discussed, with a focus on mitochondrial-targeted antioxidants, calorie restriction, calorie restriction mimetics and exercise training. PMID:22499901

Aged care nurses' job control influence satisfaction and mental health.

PubMed

Elliott, Kate-Ellen J; Rodwell, John; Martin, Angela J

2017-10-01

Relationships exist between aged care nurses' perceptions of psychosocial work characteristics, job satisfaction and mental health, suggesting these characteristics may be important for the management of aged care services. An expanded demand-control-support model that included justice perceptions was examined to determine its impact on multiple types of psychological and organisational well-being outcomes (i.e. job satisfaction, psychological distress and depression). Data were collected from a sample of 173 aged care nurses using a self-report survey and analysed using hierarchical multiple regression. A significant proportion (27-28%) of the variance in aged care nurses' satisfaction, depression and psychological distress was explained by the psychosocial factors included in the model. Job control had the most consistent impact with direct effects on job satisfaction, psychological distress and depression. Informational justice was associated with both psychological distress and depression. Targeting job control may provide the biggest response for nurse managers in aged care, as it is likely to influence nurses' job satisfaction, psychological distress and depression. Facility managers should implement organisational policies and procedures that promote higher levels of control over how nurses perform their work in order to improve nurse well-being in aged care settings. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Perspectives for Electronic Books in the World Wide Web Age.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bry, Francois; Kraus, Michael

2002-01-01

Discusses the rapid growth of the World Wide Web and the lack of use of electronic books and suggests that specialized contents and device independence can make Web-based books compete with print. Topics include enhancing the hypertext model of XML; client-side adaptation, including browsers and navigation; and semantic modeling. (Author/LRW)

Adolescent and young adult female determinants of visceral adipose tissue at ages 26-28 years.

PubMed

Glueck, Charles J; Wang, Ping; Woo, Jessica G; Morrison, John A; Khoury, Philip R; Daniels, Stephen R

2015-04-01

To assess adolescent and young adult determinants of visceral adipose tissue (VAT) at ages 26-28 years. Prospective study (ages 9-28 years) of cardiometabolic measures, menarche age, menses irregularities, metabolic syndrome, impaired fasting glucose-type 2 diabetes mellitus, and VAT in 400 girls (248 black, 152 white). Adolescent (age 14-19) independent variables for greater VAT at ages 26-28 included larger mean waist circumference (partial R(2) = 30.8%), earlier age at menarche (0.9%), and white race (1.8%). Young adult (ages 20-28 years) independent variables for greater VAT included larger mean waist circumference (partial R(2) = 61.7%), greater triglyceride levels (3.3%), lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (1.0%), and greater insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment-estimated insulin resistance; 0.4%). Independent variables for greater VAT when both adolescent and young adult variables were used included waist (tertile rank change from adolescence to young adulthood, partial R(2) = 58.3%), greater young adult triglyceride levels (4.4%), white race (1.8%), greater young adult homeostasis model assessment-estimated insulin resistance (age 20-28, 2.4%), and earlier menarche age (0.7%). Menses irregularities were not independently associated with young adult VAT. Adolescent girls with early menarche and larger waist circumference should be targets for primary prevention of accretion of VAT. In young adulthood, VAT is associated with dysregulated cardiometabolic profiles, which is greater for those with waist circumference increases from adolescence to adulthood. Waist circumference during young adulthood, and to a lesser degree during adolescence, is an inexpensive surrogate for VAT at ages 26-28 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Middle-Range Theory: Coping and Adaptation with Active Aging.

PubMed

Salazar-Barajas, Martha Elba; Salazar-González, Bertha Cecilia; Gallegos-Cabriales, Esther Carlota

2017-10-01

Various disciplines focus on a multiplicity of aspects of aging: lifestyles, personal biological factors, psychological conditions, health conditions, physical environment, and social and economic factors. The aforementioned are all related to the determinants of active aging. The aim is to describe the development of a middle-range theory based on coping and adaptation with active aging. Concepts and relationships derived from Roy's model of adaptation are included. The proposed concepts are hope, health habits, coping with aging, social relations, and active aging.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Kandler A; Santhanagopalan, Shriram; Yang, Chuanbo

Computer models are helping to accelerate the design and validation of next generation batteries and provide valuable insights not possible through experimental testing alone. Validated 3-D physics-based models exist for predicting electrochemical performance, thermal and mechanical response of cells and packs under normal and abuse scenarios. The talk describes present efforts to make the models better suited for engineering design, including improving their computation speed, developing faster processes for model parameter identification including under aging, and predicting the performance of a proposed electrode material recipe a priori using microstructure models.

The Relationship of Loss, Mean Age of Air and the Distribution of CFC's to Stratospheric Circulation and Implications for Atmospheric Lifetimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Jackman, C. H.; Gupta, M. L.; Newman, P. A.; Nielsen, J. E.; Fleming, E. L.

2008-01-01

Model-derived estimates of the annually integrated destruction and lifetime for various ozone depleting substances (ODSs) depend on the simulated stratospheric transport and mixing in the global model used to produce the estimate. Observations in the middle and high latitude lower stratosphere show that the mean age of an air parcel (i.e., the time since its stratospheric entry) is related to the fractional release for the ODs (i.e., the amount of the ODS that has been destroyed relative to the amount at the time of stratospheric entry). We use back trajectory calculations to produce an age spectrum, and explain the relationship between the mean age and the fractional release by showing that older elements in the age spectrum have experienced higher altitudes and greater ODs destruction than younger elements. In our study, models with faster circulations produce distributions for the age-of-air that are 'young' compared to a distribution derived from observations. These models also fail to reproduce the observed relationship between the mean age of air and the fractional release. Models with slower circulations produce both realistic distributions for mean age and a realistic relationship between mean age and fractional release. These models also produce a CFCl3 lifetime of approximately 56 years, longer than the 45 year lifetime used to project future mixing ratios. We find that the use of flux boundary conditions in assessment models would have several advantages, including consistency between ODS evolution and simulated loss even if the simulated residual circulation changes due to climate change.

Double the dates and go for Bayes - Impacts of model choice, dating density and quality on chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaauw, Maarten; Christen, J. Andrés; Bennett, K. D.; Reimer, Paula J.

2018-05-01

Reliable chronologies are essential for most Quaternary studies, but little is known about how age-depth model choice, as well as dating density and quality, affect the precision and accuracy of chronologies. A meta-analysis suggests that most existing late-Quaternary studies contain fewer than one date per millennium, and provide millennial-scale precision at best. We use existing and simulated sediment cores to estimate what dating density and quality are required to obtain accurate chronologies at a desired precision. For many sites, a doubling in dating density would significantly improve chronologies and thus their value for reconstructing and interpreting past environmental changes. Commonly used classical age-depth models stop becoming more precise after a minimum dating density is reached, but the precision of Bayesian age-depth models which take advantage of chronological ordering continues to improve with more dates. Our simulations show that classical age-depth models severely underestimate uncertainty and are inaccurate at low dating densities, and also perform poorly at high dating densities. On the other hand, Bayesian age-depth models provide more realistic precision estimates, including at low to average dating densities, and are much more robust against dating scatter and outliers. Indeed, Bayesian age-depth models outperform classical ones at all tested dating densities, qualities and time-scales. We recommend that chronologies should be produced using Bayesian age-depth models taking into account chronological ordering and based on a minimum of 2 dates per millennium.

[Psychiatry of the life span?--relevance of age in psychiatric research].

PubMed

Sikorski, Claudia; Motzek, Tom

2010-11-01

The aim of this study was to determine to what extent studies published in two German journals took the age of their sample into consideration. All publications of the two journals were viewed. Only empirical research papers were included. It was then assessed whether they included information on age of the sample and, if that was the case, the studies were further categorized as only giving descriptive sample information, reporting age-specific results of dependent variables or using age as a predictor in regression analyses. Furthermore, the age range covered was assessed. 88 % of all studies included information on age. Of those, about half only provided descriptive information on the age of the study sample, while more than one third used the age variable as a predictor in multivariate models. Few studies reported age-specific outcomes. Main focus of research was on adult populations aged 18 to 65. Only few studies concentrated on children and adolescents. In light of demographic change and age specificity of psychological disorders, it will be necessary to further differentiate and report age-specific results of psychiatric research. A change in what is considered normative aging and developmental tasks for certain age groups calls for further research in those age groups. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

The transcriptional landscape of age in human peripheral blood

PubMed Central

Peters, Marjolein J.; Joehanes, Roby; Pilling, Luke C.; Schurmann, Claudia; Conneely, Karen N.; Powell, Joseph; Reinmaa, Eva; Sutphin, George L.; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Schramm, Katharina; Wilson, Yana A.; Kobes, Sayuko; Tukiainen, Taru; Nalls, Michael A.; Hernandez, Dena G.; Cookson, Mark R.; Gibbs, Raphael J.; Hardy, John; Ramasamy, Adaikalavan; Zonderman, Alan B.; Dillman, Allissa; Traynor, Bryan; Smith, Colin; Longo, Dan L.; Trabzuni, Daniah; Troncoso, Juan; van der Brug, Marcel; Weale, Michael E.; O'Brien, Richard; Johnson, Robert; Walker, Robert; Zielke, Ronald H.; Arepalli, Sampath; Ryten, Mina; Singleton, Andrew B.; Ramos, Yolande F.; Göring, Harald H. H.; Fornage, Myriam; Liu, Yongmei; Gharib, Sina A.; Stranger, Barbara E.; De Jager, Philip L.; Aviv, Abraham; Levy, Daniel; Murabito, Joanne M.; Munson, Peter J.; Huan, Tianxiao; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G.; Rivadeneira, Fernando; van Rooij, Jeroen; Stolk, Lisette; Broer, Linda; Verbiest, Michael M. P. J.; Jhamai, Mila; Arp, Pascal; Metspalu, Andres; Tserel, Liina; Milani, Lili; Samani, Nilesh J.; Peterson, Pärt; Kasela, Silva; Codd, Veryan; Peters, Annette; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K.; Herder, Christian; Waldenberger, Melanie; Roden, Michael; Singmann, Paula; Zeilinger, Sonja; Illig, Thomas; Homuth, Georg; Grabe, Hans-Jörgen; Völzke, Henry; Steil, Leif; Kocher, Thomas; Murray, Anna; Melzer, David; Yaghootkar, Hanieh; Bandinelli, Stefania; Moses, Eric K.; Kent, Jack W.; Curran, Joanne E.; Johnson, Matthew P.; Williams-Blangero, Sarah; Westra, Harm-Jan; McRae, Allan F.; Smith, Jennifer A.; Kardia, Sharon L. R.; Hovatta, Iiris; Perola, Markus; Ripatti, Samuli; Salomaa, Veikko; Henders, Anjali K.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Smith, Alicia K.; Mehta, Divya; Binder, Elisabeth B.; Nylocks, K Maria; Kennedy, Elizabeth M.; Klengel, Torsten; Ding, Jingzhong; Suchy-Dicey, Astrid M.; Enquobahrie, Daniel A.; Brody, Jennifer; Rotter, Jerome I.; Chen, Yii-Der I.; Houwing-Duistermaat, Jeanine; Kloppenburg, Margreet; Slagboom, P. Eline; Helmer, Quinta; den Hollander, Wouter; Bean, Shannon; Raj, Towfique; Bakhshi, Noman; Wang, Qiao Ping; Oyston, Lisa J.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Tracy, Russell P.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Turner, Stephen T.; Blangero, John; Meulenbelt, Ingrid; Ressler, Kerry J.; Yang, Jian; Franke, Lude; Kettunen, Johannes; Visscher, Peter M.; Neely, G. Gregory; Korstanje, Ron; Hanson, Robert L.; Prokisch, Holger; Ferrucci, Luigi; Esko, Tonu; Teumer, Alexander; van Meurs, Joyce B. J.; Johnson, Andrew D.

2015-01-01

Disease incidences increase with age, but the molecular characteristics of ageing that lead to increased disease susceptibility remain inadequately understood. Here we perform a whole-blood gene expression meta-analysis in 14,983 individuals of European ancestry (including replication) and identify 1,497 genes that are differentially expressed with chronological age. The age-associated genes do not harbor more age-associated CpG-methylation sites than other genes, but are instead enriched for the presence of potentially functional CpG-methylation sites in enhancer and insulator regions that associate with both chronological age and gene expression levels. We further used the gene expression profiles to calculate the ‘transcriptomic age' of an individual, and show that differences between transcriptomic age and chronological age are associated with biological features linked to ageing, such as blood pressure, cholesterol levels, fasting glucose, and body mass index. The transcriptomic prediction model adds biological relevance and complements existing epigenetic prediction models, and can be used by others to calculate transcriptomic age in external cohorts. PMID:26490707

Lattice Modeling of Early-Age Behavior of Structural Concrete.

PubMed

Pan, Yaming; Prado, Armando; Porras, Rocío; Hafez, Omar M; Bolander, John E

2017-02-25

The susceptibility of structural concrete to early-age cracking depends on material composition, methods of processing, structural boundary conditions, and a variety of environmental factors. Computational modeling offers a means for identifying primary factors and strategies for reducing cracking potential. Herein, lattice models are shown to be adept at simulating the thermal-hygral-mechanical phenomena that influence early-age cracking. In particular, this paper presents a lattice-based approach that utilizes a model of cementitious materials hydration to control the development of concrete properties, including stiffness, strength, and creep resistance. The approach is validated and used to simulate early-age cracking in concrete bridge decks. Structural configuration plays a key role in determining the magnitude and distribution of stresses caused by volume instabilities of the concrete material. Under restrained conditions, both thermal and hygral effects are found to be primary contributors to cracking potential.

Lattice Modeling of Early-Age Behavior of Structural Concrete

PubMed Central

Pan, Yaming; Prado, Armando; Porras, Rocío; Hafez, Omar M.; Bolander, John E.

2017-01-01

The susceptibility of structural concrete to early-age cracking depends on material composition, methods of processing, structural boundary conditions, and a variety of environmental factors. Computational modeling offers a means for identifying primary factors and strategies for reducing cracking potential. Herein, lattice models are shown to be adept at simulating the thermal-hygral-mechanical phenomena that influence early-age cracking. In particular, this paper presents a lattice-based approach that utilizes a model of cementitious materials hydration to control the development of concrete properties, including stiffness, strength, and creep resistance. The approach is validated and used to simulate early-age cracking in concrete bridge decks. Structural configuration plays a key role in determining the magnitude and distribution of stresses caused by volume instabilities of the concrete material. Under restrained conditions, both thermal and hygral effects are found to be primary contributors to cracking potential. PMID:28772590

A critique of the Active Ageing Index.

PubMed

São José, José Manuel de; Timonen, Virpi; Amado, Carla Alexandra Filipe; Santos, Sérgio Pereira

2017-01-01

Active ageing and successful ageing are ubiquitous concepts in contemporary societies. In the European Union, active ageing is monitored and promoted chiefly by the Active Ageing Index, a policy tool in use since 2012. We acknowledge that the AAI may contribute to sensitizing people, including policymakers, to the multidimensionality and complexity of the process of "ageing well". However, we note that despite being widely used and promoted, the Active Ageing Index remains under-scrutinized. In this article, we undertake a comprehensive critical analysis of the Active Ageing Index. This critical analysis is supported by the Theory of Model Ageing, the Capability Approach and, to a lesser extent, by relevant literature on composite indices. We conclude that the Active Ageing Index was developed with the paradoxical aim of deriving "the solution" from "the problem". It is an under-theorized and narrowly conceptualized index that contributes to the process of Model Ageing, as its conceptual foundation, and its domains and indicators, convey a certain model of active ageing. This model is expert-based and ingrained with a priori assumptions about the potential of older people, the domains of life and activities they value and how strongly they value them. Finally, the Active Ageing Index measures current achievements, not capabilities (i.e. the opportunity set of achievable "doings" and "beings"), resulting in a valuable but incomplete tool for policymaking purposes. We hope that this critical analysis will initiate a debate on the Active Ageing Index that, in our view, is overdue. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Novel method to predict body weight in children based on age and morphological facial features.

PubMed

Huang, Ziyin; Barrett, Jeffrey S; Barrett, Kyle; Barrett, Ryan; Ng, Chee M

2015-04-01

A new and novel approach of predicting the body weight of children based on age and morphological facial features using a three-layer feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) model is reported. The model takes in four parameters, including age-based CDC-inferred median body weight and three facial feature distances measured from digital facial images. In this study, thirty-nine volunteer subjects with age ranging from 6-18 years old and BW ranging from 18.6-96.4 kg were used for model development and validation. The final model has a mean prediction error of 0.48, a mean squared error of 18.43, and a coefficient of correlation of 0.94. The model shows significant improvement in prediction accuracy over several age-based body weight prediction methods. Combining with a facial recognition algorithm that can detect, extract and measure the facial features used in this study, mobile applications that incorporate this body weight prediction method may be developed for clinical investigations where access to scales is limited. © 2014, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Chronology from sediment cores collected in southwestern Everglades National Park, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernhardt, C.E.; Wingard, G.L.; Willard, D.A.; Marot, M.E.; Landacre, B.; Holmes, C.W.

2013-01-01

Age model data are presented for 10 cores from the southwestern coastal mangrove zone of Everglades National Park, Florida, collected in Common Era (CE) 2004 and 2005 and used for paleoecological analysis. Carbon-14 (14C), lead-210 (210Pb), cesium-137 (137Cs), radium-226 (226Ra), and pollen biostratigraphic information is included, and age models were generated for 6 of the 10 cores. Age reversals and sediment disturbance prevented construction of age models on the remaining four cores. Four cores present a continuous record of the last 50 to 100 years, making them useful for analyzing the impacts caused by changes in water management in south Florida. These cores are Harney River 2A and Harney River 1A, Shark River 2A, and Roberts River.

Educating an Aging Society: The University of the Third Age in Finland.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yenerall, Joseph D.

2003-01-01

The University of the Third Age in Finland has evolved from English and French models to include lectures, discussion groups, and research groups. A survey of 165 adult learners found their primary reason for participating was to acquire general education and self-knowledge. Socializing and meeting people were among the lowest ranked motivations.…

Psychology of Aging in America: A Historical Account of Theoretical Developments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Sharon; Luepnitz, Roy

This document traces theoretical developments in the psychology of aging during the last 50 years. The concept of theory is discussed as well as the bringing together of theories to form a model. After summarizing the early beginnings of American interest in aging, the work of major theoreticians is explored including Hall (senescence), Thorndike…

Predicting Word Maturity from Frequency and Semantic Diversity: A Computational Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jorge-Botana, Guillermo; Olmos, Ricardo; Sanjosé, Vicente

2017-01-01

Semantic word representation changes over different ages of childhood until it reaches its adult form. One method to formally model this change is the word maturity paradigm. This method uses a text sample for each age, including adult age, and transforms the samples into a semantic space by means of Latent Semantic Analysis. The representation of…

Accommodation and age-dependent eye model based on in vivo measurements.

PubMed

Zapata-Díaz, Juan F; Radhakrishnan, Hema; Charman, W Neil; López-Gil, Norberto

2018-03-21

To develop a flexible model of the average eye that incorporates changes with age and accommodation in all optical parameters, including entrance pupil diameter, under photopic, natural, environmental conditions. We collated retrospective in vivo measurements of all optical parameters, including entrance pupil diameter. Ray-tracing was used to calculate the wavefront aberrations of the eye model as a function of age, stimulus vergence and pupil diameter. These aberrations were used to calculate objective refraction using paraxial curvature matching. This was also done for several stimulus positions to calculate the accommodation response/stimulus curve. The model predicts a hyperopic change in distance refraction as the eye ages (+0.22D every 10 years) between 20 and 65 years. The slope of the accommodation response/stimulus curve was 0.72 for a 25 years-old subject, with little change between 20 and 45 years. A trend to a more negative value of primary spherical aberration as the eye accommodates is predicted for all ages (20-50 years). When accommodation is relaxed, a slight increase in primary spherical aberration (0.008μm every 10 years) between 20 and 65 years is predicted, for an age-dependent entrance pupil diameter ranging between 3.58mm (20 years) and 3.05mm (65 years). Results match reasonably well with studies performed in real eyes, except that spherical aberration is systematically slightly negative as compared with the practical data. The proposed eye model is able to predict changes in objective refraction and accommodation response. It has the potential to be a useful design and testing tool for devices (e.g. intraocular lenses or contact lenses) designed to correct the eye's optical errors. Copyright © 2018 Spanish General Council of Optometry. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Gene expression during blow fly development: improving the precision of age estimates in forensic entomology.

PubMed

Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

2011-01-01

Forensic entomologists use size and developmental stage to estimate blow fly age, and from those, a postmortem interval. Since such estimates are generally accurate but often lack precision, particularly in the older developmental stages, alternative aging methods would be advantageous. Presented here is a means of incorporating developmentally regulated gene expression levels into traditional stage and size data, with a goal of more precisely estimating developmental age of immature Lucilia sericata. Generalized additive models of development showed improved statistical support compared to models that did not include gene expression data, resulting in an increase in estimate precision, especially for postfeeding third instars and pupae. The models were then used to make blind estimates of development for 86 immature L. sericata raised on rat carcasses. Overall, inclusion of gene expression data resulted in increased precision in aging blow flies. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

A novel use of structural equation models to examine factors associated with prediabetes among adults aged 50 years and older: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001-2006.

PubMed

Bardenheier, Barbara H; Bullard, Kai McKeever; Caspersen, Carl J; Cheng, Yiling J; Gregg, Edward W; Geiss, Linda S

2013-09-01

To use structural modeling to test a hypothesized model of causal pathways related with prediabetes among older adults in the U.S. Cross-sectional study of 2,230 older adults (≥ 50 years) without diabetes included in the morning fasting sample of the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Demographic data included age, income, marital status, race/ethnicity, and education. Behavioral data included physical activity (metabolic equivalent hours per week for vigorous or moderate muscle strengthening, walking/biking, and house/yard work), and poor diet (refined grains, red meat, added sugars, solid fats, and high-fat dairy). Structural-equation modeling was performed to examine the interrelationships among these variables with family history of diabetes, high blood pressure, BMI, large waist (waist circumference: women, ≥ 35 inches; men, ≥ 40 inches), triglycerides ≥ 200 mg/dL, and total and HDL (≥ 60 mg/dL) cholesterol. After dropping BMI and total cholesterol, our best-fit model included three single factors: socioeconomic position (SEP), physical activity, and poor diet. Large waist had the strongest direct effect on prediabetes (0.279), followed by male sex (0.270), SEP (-0.157), high blood pressure (0.122), family history of diabetes (0.070), and age (0.033). Physical activity had direct effects on HDL (0.137), triglycerides (-0.136), high blood pressure (-0.132), and large waist (-0.067); poor diet had direct effects on large waist (0.146) and triglycerides (0.148). Our results confirmed that, while including factors known to be associated with high risk of developing prediabetes, large waist circumference had the strongest direct effect. The direct effect of SEP on prediabetes suggests mediation by some unmeasured factor(s).

Peritoneal Fluid Transport rather than Peritoneal Solute Transport Associates with Dialysis Vintage and Age of Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

PubMed Central

Waniewski, Jacek; Antosiewicz, Stefan; Baczynski, Daniel; Poleszczuk, Jan; Pietribiasi, Mauro; Lindholm, Bengt; Wankowicz, Zofia

2016-01-01

During peritoneal dialysis (PD), the peritoneal membrane undergoes ageing processes that affect its function. Here we analyzed associations of patient age and dialysis vintage with parameters of peritoneal transport of fluid and solutes, directly measured and estimated based on the pore model, for individual patients. Thirty-three patients (15 females; age 60 (21–87) years; median time on PD 19 (3–100) months) underwent sequential peritoneal equilibration test. Dialysis vintage and patient age did not correlate. Estimation of parameters of the two-pore model of peritoneal transport was performed. The estimated fluid transport parameters, including hydraulic permeability (LpS), fraction of ultrasmall pores (α u), osmotic conductance for glucose (OCG), and peritoneal absorption, were generally independent of solute transport parameters (diffusive mass transport parameters). Fluid transport parameters correlated whereas transport parameters for small solutes and proteins did not correlate with dialysis vintage and patient age. Although LpS and OCG were lower for older patients and those with long dialysis vintage, αu was higher. Thus, fluid transport parameters—rather than solute transport parameters—are linked to dialysis vintage and patient age and should therefore be included when monitoring processes linked to ageing of the peritoneal membrane. PMID:26989432

The USC Faculty Planning Model: A History and Description.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bottomley, Wayne N.

A model for planning regarding college faculty is described. The USC Faculty Planning Model was developed by Robert Linnell and Paul Gray in 1974 at the University of Southern California as an interactive mathematical model to trace characteristics of faculty groups over time. Characteristics listed by the model include: faculty age distribution,…

Delineating the third age: joint models of older people's quality of life and attrition in Britain 2002-2010.

PubMed

Tampubolon, Gindo

2015-07-01

In the public mind, later life is being transformed by the emerging possibility of a flourishing third age with sustained quality of life. We draw trajectories of life quality measured using CASP-19 over eight years. We refine these trajectories by jointly modelling attrition, since older people tend to leave longitudinal studies (attrite) not at random. Growth curve models are applied to the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing waves 1 to 5. Then joint model is estimated where attrition is considered. Extensive predictors are entered including demographic attributes, social and economic status, health conditions, and behaviours. Strong non-linear age trajectory of life quality is revealed by the growth curve models where the peak is achieved in the late 60s. Then the joint model uncovers the peak somewhat later in time, and also reveals secular improvement in life quality experienced by recent cohorts. Sharp estimates for many predictors of higher levels of life quality are also found. For the first time, the trajectories of life quality in the third age are drawn and improvement across cohorts is demonstrated. The contributions are estimated for predictors amenable to intervention such as social capital. This can help in policy discussion on improving the lives of older people in the third age.

Improving age-depth models using sedimentary proxies for accumulation rates in fluvio-lacustrine deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minderhoud, Philip S. J.; Cohen, Kim M.; Toonen, Willem. H. J.; Erkens, Gilles; Hoek, Wim Z.

2017-04-01

Lacustrine fills, including those of oxbow lakes in river floodplains, often hold valuable sedimentary and biological proxy records of palaeo-environmental change. Precise dating of accumulated sediments at levels throughout these records is crucial for interpretation and correlation of (proxy) data existing within the fills. Typically, dates are gathered from multiple sampled levels and their results are combined in age-depth models to estimate the ages of events identified between the datings. In this paper, a method of age-depth modelling is presented that varies the vertical accumulation rate of the lake fill based on continuous sedimentary data. In between Bayesian calibrated radiocarbon dates, this produces a modified non-linear age-depth relation based on sedimentology rather than linear or spline interpolation. The method is showcased on a core of an infilled palaeomeander at the floodplain edge of the river Rhine near Rheinberg (Germany). The sequence spans from 4.7 to 2.9 ka cal BP and consists of 5.5 meters of laminated lacustrine, organo-clastic mud, covered by 1 meter of peaty clay. Four radiocarbon dates provide direct dating control, mapping and dating in the wider surroundings provide additional control. The laminated, organo-clastic facies of the oxbow fill contains a record of nearby fluvial-geomorphological activity, including meander reconfiguration events and passage of rare large floods, recognized as fluctuations in coarseness and amount of allochthonous clastic sediment input. Continuous along-core sampling and measurement of loss-on-ignition (LOI) provided a fast way of expressing the variation in clastic sedimentation influx from the nearby river versus autochthonous organic deposition derived from biogenic production in the lake itself. This low-cost sedimentary proxy data feeds into the age-depth modelling. The sedimentology-modelled age-depth relation (re)produces the distinct lithological boundaries in the fill as marked changes in sedimentation rate. Especially the organo-clastic muddy facies subdivides in centennial intervals of relative faster and slower accumulation. For such intervals, sedimentation rates are produced that deviate 10 to 20% from that in simpler stepped linear age-models. For irregularly laminated muddy intervals of the oxbow fill - from which meaningful sampling for radiocarbon dating is more difficult than from peaty or slowly accumulating organic lake sediments - supplementing spotty radiocarbon sampling with continuous sedimentary proxy data creates more realistic age-depth modelling results.

Predictive Factors of Regular Physical Activity among Middle-Aged Women in the West of Iran, Hamadan: Application of PRECEDE Model.

PubMed

Emdadi, Shohreh; Hazavehie, Seyed Mohammad Mehdi; Soltanian, Alireza; Bashirian, Saeed; Heidari Moghadam, Rashid

2015-01-01

Regular physical activity is important for midlife women. Models and theories help better understanding this behavior among middle-aged women and better planning for change behavior in target group. This study aimed to investigate predictive factors of regular physical activity among middle-aged women based on PRECEDE model as a theoretical framework. This descriptive-analytical study was performed on 866 middle-aged women of Hamadan City western Iran, recruited with a proportional stratified sampling method in 2015. The participants completed a self-administered questionnaire including questions on demographic characteristics and PRECEDE model constructs and IPAQ questionnaire. Data were then analyzed by SPSS-16 and AMOS-16 using the Pearson correlation test and the pathway analysis method. Overall, 57% of middle-aged women were inactive (light level) or not sufficiently active. With SEM (Structural Equation Modeling) analysis, knowledge b=0.84, P<0.001, attitude b=0.799, P<0.001, self-efficacy b=0.633, P<0.001 as predisposing factor and social support as reinforcing factor b=0.2, P<0.001 were the most important predictors for physical activity among middle-aged women in Hamadan. The framework of the PRECEDE model is useful in understanding regular physical activity among middle-aged women. Furthermore, results showed the importance of predisposing and reinforcing factors when planning educational interventions.

Sex ratio in multiple sclerosis mortality over 65 years; an age-period-cohort analysis in Norway.

PubMed

Nakken, Ola; Lindstrøm, Jonas Christoffer; Holmøy, Trygve

2018-06-01

Increasing female: male ratio in multiple sclerosis (MS) has been assigned to cohort effects, with females in more recent birth cohorts possibly being more exposed or vulnerable to environmental risk factors than males. We collected MS mortality data in Norway from 1951 to 2015 from The Norwegian Cause of Death registry. Age-Period-Cohort analysis was conducted using log-linear Poisson models, including sex interaction terms. MS was registered as the underlying, contributing or direct cause in 6060 deaths. MS associated mortality remained stable with a slight preponderance among males until after 1980, and have since increased preferentially among females. Throughout the study period the mean annual increase was 1.25% for females and 0.3% for males (p < 0.0001). Age-period-cohort analysis revealed limited evidence of cohort effects for the gender differences; the best fitting model only included gender-age and gender-period interaction terms. The period effect evened out for males in the last three decades but increased for females, especially among the oldest age-groups. In conclusion, the increased female: male mortality ratio in MS associated mortality is driven mainly by increased mortality among females in the three last decades, particularly in the older age groups. It is best explained by disproportional period effects, providing evidence of time-varying external factors including improved access to diagnosis among females.

Nothobranchius as a model for aging studies. A review

PubMed Central

Lucas-Sánchez, Alejandro; Almaida-Pagán, Pedro Francisco; Mendiola, Pilar; de Costa, Jorge

2014-01-01

In recent decades, the increase in human longevity has made it increasingly important to expand our knowledge on aging. To accomplish this, the use of animal models is essential, with the most common being mouse (phylogenetically similar to humans, and a model with a long life expectancy) and Caenorhabditis elegans (an invertebrate with a short life span, but quite removed from us in evolutionary terms). However, some sort of model is needed to bridge the differences between those mentioned above, achieving a balance between phylogenetic distance and life span. Fish of the genus Nothobranchius were suggested 10 years ago as a possible alternative for the study of the aging process. In the meantime, numerous studies have been conducted at different levels: behavioral (including the study of the rest-activity rhythm), populational, histochemical, biochemical and genetic, among others, with very positive results. This review compiles what we know about Nothobranchius to date, and examines its future prospects as a true alternative to the classic models for studies on aging. PMID:25110612

Genetic Signatures of Exceptional Longevity in Humans

PubMed Central

Sebastiani, Paola; Solovieff, Nadia; DeWan, Andrew T.; Walsh, Kyle M.; Puca, Annibale; Hartley, Stephen W.; Melista, Efthymia; Andersen, Stacy; Dworkis, Daniel A.; Wilk, Jemma B.; Myers, Richard H.; Steinberg, Martin H.; Montano, Monty; Baldwin, Clinton T.; Hoh, Josephine; Perls, Thomas T.

2012-01-01

Like most complex phenotypes, exceptional longevity is thought to reflect a combined influence of environmental (e.g., lifestyle choices, where we live) and genetic factors. To explore the genetic contribution, we undertook a genome-wide association study of exceptional longevity in 801 centenarians (median age at death 104 years) and 914 genetically matched healthy controls. Using these data, we built a genetic model that includes 281 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and discriminated between cases and controls of the discovery set with 89% sensitivity and specificity, and with 58% specificity and 60% sensitivity in an independent cohort of 341 controls and 253 genetically matched nonagenarians and centenarians (median age 100 years). Consistent with the hypothesis that the genetic contribution is largest with the oldest ages, the sensitivity of the model increased in the independent cohort with older and older ages (71% to classify subjects with an age at death>102 and 85% to classify subjects with an age at death>105). For further validation, we applied the model to an additional, unmatched 60 centenarians (median age 107 years) resulting in 78% sensitivity, and 2863 unmatched controls with 61% specificity. The 281 SNPs include the SNP rs2075650 in TOMM40/APOE that reached irrefutable genome wide significance (posterior probability of association = 1) and replicated in the independent cohort. Removal of this SNP from the model reduced the accuracy by only 1%. Further in-silico analysis suggests that 90% of centenarians can be grouped into clusters characterized by different “genetic signatures” of varying predictive values for exceptional longevity. The correlation between 3 signatures and 3 different life spans was replicated in the combined replication sets. The different signatures may help dissect this complex phenotype into sub-phenotypes of exceptional longevity. PMID:22279548

Characterizing the relationship between age and venous thromboembolism in adult trauma patients: findings from the National Trauma Data Bank and the National Inpatient Sample.

PubMed

Nastasi, Anthony J; Canner, Joseph K; Lau, Brandyn D; Streiff, Michael B; Aboagye, Jonathan K; Kraus, Peggy S; Hobson, Deborah B; Van Arendonk, Kyle J; Haut, Elliott R

2017-08-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a tremendous burden in health care. However, current guidelines lack recommendations regarding the prevention of VTE in older adult trauma patients. Furthermore, the appropriate method of modeling of age in VTE models is currently unclear. Patients included in the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) between the years 2008 and 2014 and patients included in the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) between 2009 and 2013 were analyzed. Multiple logistic regression of VTE on age was performed. Of 3,598,881 patients in the NTDB, 34,202 (1.0%) were diagnosed with VTE compared to 5405 (1.1%) of the 505,231 patients in NIS. In both the fully adjusted NTDB and NIS model, age was positively associated with odds of VTE diagnosis under 65 years (NTDB, adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.018, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.017-1.019, P < 0.001; NIS, aOR: 1.025, 95% CI 1.022-1.027, P < 0.001). In patients aged ≥65 years, age was negatively associated with odds of VTE diagnosis in the NTDB (aOR: 0.995, 95% CI: 0.992-0.999, P = 0.006) but not in the NIS (aOR: 0.998, 95% CI 0.994-1.002, P = 0.26). Incidence of VTE among adult trauma patients steadily increases with age until 65 years, after which the odds of VTE appear to level off or even slightly decrease. These findings should be applied for improved modeling of VTE in trauma patients. The mechanism behind these findings should be explored before using them to update guidelines for standardized VTE prevention in older adults. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parathyroid hormone is predictive of low bone mass in Canadian aboriginal and white women.

PubMed

Weiler, Hope A; Leslie, William D; Bernstein, Charles N

2008-03-01

Canadian Aboriginal women have lower age- and weight-corrected bone mineral density (BMD) and lower vitamin D status than White women. This study was undertaken to describe the differences in biomarkers of bone metabolism and vitamin D in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal women and to establish which biomarkers were predictive of BMD. In total, 41 rural Aboriginal, 212 urban Aboriginal and 182 urban White women were studied for BMD of the distal radius, calcaneus, lumbar spine, femoral neck, total hip and whole body using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Serum biomarkers measured included calcium, phosphate, alkaline phosphatase (ALP), C-telopeptide of type 1 collagen (CTX), osteocalcin (OC), osteoprotegerin (OPG), parathyroid hormone (PTH) and 25(OH)D. Data were analyzed for differences among the three groups stratified by age (25 to 39, 40 to 59 and 60 to 75 y) using factorial ANOVA. Predictors of BMD including ethnicity, age and body weight were identified using step-wise regression. Unadjusted BMD of all sites declined with age regardless of ethnic grouping. Prediction models for 5 of 6 BMD sites included PTH accounting for age and body weight. Other predictors of BMD included OC for the radius and calcaneus; OPG for spine and total hip; and ALP for whole body and calcaneus. Serum 25(OH)D was not included in any model of BMD. After accounting for all variables in the regression equation, an average Aboriginal woman of 46 y and 79 kg was predicted to have 6% lower calcaneus BMD and 3% lower radius BMD compared to a White woman of the same age and weight. In conclusion, PTH is a better predictor of BMD than 25(OH)D in this population of Aboriginal and White women.

Premature aging-related peripheral neuropathy in a mouse model of progeria.

PubMed

Goss, James R; Stolz, Donna Beer; Robinson, Andria Rasile; Zhang, Mingdi; Arbujas, Norma; Robbins, Paul D; Glorioso, Joseph C; Niedernhofer, Laura J

2011-08-01

Peripheral neuropathy is a common aging-related degenerative disorder that interferes with daily activities and leads to increased risk of falls and injury in the elderly. The etiology of most aging-related peripheral neuropathy is unknown. Inherited defects in several genome maintenance mechanisms cause tissue-specific accelerated aging, including neurodegeneration. We tested the hypothesis that a murine model of XFE progeroid syndrome, caused by reduced expression of ERCC1-XPF DNA repair endonuclease, develops peripheral neuropathy. Nerve conduction studies revealed normal nerve function in young adult (8 week) Ercc1(-/Δ) mice, but significant abnormalities in 20 week-old animals. Morphologic and ultrastructural analysis of the sciatic nerve from mutant mice revealed significant alterations at 20 but not 8 weeks of age. We conclude that Ercc1(-/Δ) mice have accelerated spontaneous peripheral neurodegeneration that mimics aging-related disease. This provides strong evidence that DNA damage can drive peripheral neuropathy and offers a rapid and novel model to test therapies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel gene function revealed by mouse mutagenesis screens for models of age-related disease.

PubMed

Potter, Paul K; Bowl, Michael R; Jeyarajan, Prashanthini; Wisby, Laura; Blease, Andrew; Goldsworthy, Michelle E; Simon, Michelle M; Greenaway, Simon; Michel, Vincent; Barnard, Alun; Aguilar, Carlos; Agnew, Thomas; Banks, Gareth; Blake, Andrew; Chessum, Lauren; Dorning, Joanne; Falcone, Sara; Goosey, Laurence; Harris, Shelley; Haynes, Andy; Heise, Ines; Hillier, Rosie; Hough, Tertius; Hoslin, Angela; Hutchison, Marie; King, Ruairidh; Kumar, Saumya; Lad, Heena V; Law, Gemma; MacLaren, Robert E; Morse, Susan; Nicol, Thomas; Parker, Andrew; Pickford, Karen; Sethi, Siddharth; Starbuck, Becky; Stelma, Femke; Cheeseman, Michael; Cross, Sally H; Foster, Russell G; Jackson, Ian J; Peirson, Stuart N; Thakker, Rajesh V; Vincent, Tonia; Scudamore, Cheryl; Wells, Sara; El-Amraoui, Aziz; Petit, Christine; Acevedo-Arozena, Abraham; Nolan, Patrick M; Cox, Roger; Mallon, Anne-Marie; Brown, Steve D M

2016-08-18

Determining the genetic bases of age-related disease remains a major challenge requiring a spectrum of approaches from human and clinical genetics to the utilization of model organism studies. Here we report a large-scale genetic screen in mice employing a phenotype-driven discovery platform to identify mutations resulting in age-related disease, both late-onset and progressive. We have utilized N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis to generate pedigrees of mutagenized mice that were subject to recurrent screens for mutant phenotypes as the mice aged. In total, we identify 105 distinct mutant lines from 157 pedigrees analysed, out of which 27 are late-onset phenotypes across a range of physiological systems. Using whole-genome sequencing we uncover the underlying genes for 44 of these mutant phenotypes, including 12 late-onset phenotypes. These genes reveal a number of novel pathways involved with age-related disease. We illustrate our findings by the recovery and characterization of a novel mouse model of age-related hearing loss.

Novel gene function revealed by mouse mutagenesis screens for models of age-related disease

PubMed Central

Potter, Paul K.; Bowl, Michael R.; Jeyarajan, Prashanthini; Wisby, Laura; Blease, Andrew; Goldsworthy, Michelle E.; Simon, Michelle M.; Greenaway, Simon; Michel, Vincent; Barnard, Alun; Aguilar, Carlos; Agnew, Thomas; Banks, Gareth; Blake, Andrew; Chessum, Lauren; Dorning, Joanne; Falcone, Sara; Goosey, Laurence; Harris, Shelley; Haynes, Andy; Heise, Ines; Hillier, Rosie; Hough, Tertius; Hoslin, Angela; Hutchison, Marie; King, Ruairidh; Kumar, Saumya; Lad, Heena V.; Law, Gemma; MacLaren, Robert E.; Morse, Susan; Nicol, Thomas; Parker, Andrew; Pickford, Karen; Sethi, Siddharth; Starbuck, Becky; Stelma, Femke; Cheeseman, Michael; Cross, Sally H.; Foster, Russell G.; Jackson, Ian J.; Peirson, Stuart N.; Thakker, Rajesh V.; Vincent, Tonia; Scudamore, Cheryl; Wells, Sara; El-Amraoui, Aziz; Petit, Christine; Acevedo-Arozena, Abraham; Nolan, Patrick M.; Cox, Roger; Mallon, Anne-Marie; Brown, Steve D. M.

2016-01-01

Determining the genetic bases of age-related disease remains a major challenge requiring a spectrum of approaches from human and clinical genetics to the utilization of model organism studies. Here we report a large-scale genetic screen in mice employing a phenotype-driven discovery platform to identify mutations resulting in age-related disease, both late-onset and progressive. We have utilized N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis to generate pedigrees of mutagenized mice that were subject to recurrent screens for mutant phenotypes as the mice aged. In total, we identify 105 distinct mutant lines from 157 pedigrees analysed, out of which 27 are late-onset phenotypes across a range of physiological systems. Using whole-genome sequencing we uncover the underlying genes for 44 of these mutant phenotypes, including 12 late-onset phenotypes. These genes reveal a number of novel pathways involved with age-related disease. We illustrate our findings by the recovery and characterization of a novel mouse model of age-related hearing loss. PMID:27534441

Individual heterogeneity in growth and age at sexual maturity: A gamma process analysis of capture–mark–recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William; Hesed, Kyle Miller

2015-01-01

Knowledge of organisms’ growth rates and ages at sexual maturity is important for conservation efforts and a wide variety of studies in ecology and evolutionary biology. However, these life history parameters may be difficult to obtain from natural populations: individuals encountered may be of unknown age, information on age at sexual maturity may be uncertain and interval-censored, and growth data may include both individual heterogeneity and measurement errors. We analyzed mark–recapture data for Red-backed Salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) to compare sex-specific growth rates and ages at sexual maturity. Aging of individuals was made possible by the use of a von Bertalanffy model of growth, complemented with models for interval-censored and imperfect observations at sexual maturation. Individual heterogeneity in growth was modeled through the use of Gamma processes. Our analysis indicates that female P. cinereus mature earlier and grow more quickly than males, growing to nearly identical asymptotic size distributions as males.

Unique quadruple immunofluorescence assay demonstrates mitochondrial respiratory chain dysfunction in osteoblasts of aged and PolgA(-/-) mice.

PubMed

Dobson, Philip F; Rocha, Mariana C; Grady, John P; Chrysostomou, Alexia; Hipps, Daniel; Watson, Sharon; Greaves, Laura C; Deehan, David J; Turnbull, Doug M

2016-08-24

Fragility fractures caused by osteoporosis affect millions of people worldwide every year with significant levels of associated morbidity, mortality and costs to the healthcare economy. The pathogenesis of declining bone mineral density is poorly understood but it is inherently related to increasing age. Growing evidence in recent years, especially that provided by mouse models, suggest that accumulating somatic mitochondrial DNA mutations may cause the phenotypic changes associated with the ageing process including osteoporosis. Methods to study mitochondrial abnormalities in individual osteoblasts, osteoclasts and osteocytes are limited and impair our ability to assess the changes seen with age and in animal models of ageing. To enable the assessment of mitochondrial protein levels, we have developed a quadruple immunofluorescence method to accurately quantify the presence of mitochondrial respiratory chain components within individual bone cells. We have applied this technique to a well-established mouse model of ageing and osteoporosis and show respiratory chain deficiency.

Is There an Association between Advanced Paternal Age and Endophenotype Deficit Levels in Schizophrenia?

PubMed Central

Tsuang, Debby; Esterberg, Michelle; Braff, David; Calkins, Monica; Cadenhead, Kristin; Dobie, Dorcas; Freedman, Robert; Green, Michael F.; Greenwood, Tiffany; Gur, Raquel; Gur, Ruben; Horan, William; Lazzeroni, Laura C.; Light, Gregory A.; Millard, Steven P.; Olincy, Ann; Nuechterlein, Keith; Seidman, Larry; Siever, Larry; Silverman, Jeremy; Stone, William; Sprock, Joyce; Sugar, Catherine; Swerdlow, Neal; Tsuang, Ming; Turetsky, Bruce; Radant, Allen

2014-01-01

The children of older fathers have increased risks of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and among those who develop these disorders, those with older fathers present with more severe clinical symptoms. However, the influence of advanced paternal age on other important domains related to schizophrenia, such as quantitative endophenotype deficit levels, remains unknown. This study investigated the associations between paternal age and level of endophenotypic impairment in a well-characterized family-based sample from the Consortium on the Genetics of Schizophrenia (COGS). All families included at least one affected subject and one unaffected sibling. Subjects met criteria for schizophrenia (probands; n = 293) or were unaffected first-degree siblings of those probands (n = 382). Paternal age at the time of subjects’ birth was documented. Subjects completed a comprehensive clinical assessment and a battery of tests that measured 16 endophenotypes. After controlling for covariates, potential paternal age–endophenotype associations were analyzed using one model that included probands alone and a second model that included both probands and unaffected siblings. Endophenotype deficits in the Identical Pairs version of the 4-digit Continuous Performance Test and in the Penn Computerized Neurocognitive Battery verbal memory test showed significant associations with paternal age. However, after correcting for multiple comparisons, no endophenotype was significantly associated with paternal age. These findings suggest that factors other than advanced paternal age at birth may account for endophenotypic deficit levels in schizophrenia. PMID:24523888

Modeling and Analysis of a Nonlinear Age-Structured Model for Tumor Cell Populations with Quiescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zijian; Chen, Jing; Pang, Jianhua; Bi, Ping; Ruan, Shigui

2018-05-01

We present a nonlinear first-order hyperbolic partial differential equation model to describe age-structured tumor cell populations with proliferating and quiescent phases at the avascular stage in vitro. The division rate of the proliferating cells is assumed to be nonlinear due to the limitation of the nutrient and space. The model includes a proportion of newborn cells that enter directly the quiescent phase with age zero. This proportion can reflect the effect of treatment by drugs such as erlotinib. The existence and uniqueness of solutions are established. The local and global stabilities of the trivial steady state are investigated. The existence and local stability of the positive steady state are also analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the results and to examine the impacts of parameters on the nonlinear dynamics of the model.

Breeding chronology and social interactions affect ungulate foraging behavior at a concentrated food resource

PubMed Central

Cohen, Bradley S.; Miller, Karl V.

2017-01-01

Prey species must balance predator avoidance behavior with other essential activities including foraging, breeding, and social interactions. Anti-predator behaviors such as vigilance can impede resource acquisition rates by altering foraging behavior. However, in addition to predation risk, foraging behavior may also be affected by socio-sexual factors including breeding chronology and social interactions. Therefore, we investigated how time-of-day, distance-to-forest, group size, social interactions (presence of different sex-age class), and breeding chronology (pre-breeding, breeding, post-breeding seasons) affected probability of feeding (hereafter: feeding) for different sex and age-classes (mature males, immature males, adult females, and juveniles) of white-tailed deer at feed sites. We developed a set of candidate models consisting of social, habitat, reproductive, and abiotic factors and combinations of these factors. We then used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to estimate the probability of feeding and used model averaging of competing models for multimodel inference. Each adult sex-age class’ feeding was influenced by breeding chronology. Juveniles were more likely to be feeding than adults in all seasons. Feeding increased with group size for all sex-age classes. The presence of a mature male negatively influenced the feeding of immature males and juveniles were more likely to be feeding when an adult female was present. Feeding decreased with increasing distance-to-forest for mature males but not for other sex-age classes. Our results indicate that each sex-age class modulates vigilance levels in response to socio-sexual factors according to the unique pressures placed upon them by their reproductive status and social rank. PMID:28591136

Using Latent Class Analysis to Model Temperament Types.

PubMed

Loken, Eric

2004-10-01

Mixture models are appropriate for data that arise from a set of qualitatively different subpopulations. In this study, latent class analysis was applied to observational data from a laboratory assessment of infant temperament at four months of age. The EM algorithm was used to fit the models, and the Bayesian method of posterior predictive checks was used for model selection. Results show at least three types of infant temperament, with patterns consistent with those identified by previous researchers who classified the infants using a theoretically based system. Multiple imputation of group memberships is proposed as an alternative to assigning subjects to the latent class with maximum posterior probability in order to reflect variance due to uncertainty in the parameter estimation. Latent class membership at four months of age predicted longitudinal outcomes at four years of age. The example illustrates issues relevant to all mixture models, including estimation, multi-modality, model selection, and comparisons based on the latent group indicators.

The Economic Impact of Blindness in Europe.

PubMed

Chakravarthy, Usha; Biundo, Eliana; Saka, Rasit Omer; Fasser, Christina; Bourne, Rupert; Little, Julie-Anne

2017-08-01

To estimate the annual loss of productivity from blindness and moderate to severe visual impairment (MSVI) in the population aged >50 years in the European Union (EU). We estimated the cost of lost productivity using three simple models reported in the literature based on (1) minimum wage (MW), (2) gross national income (GNI), and (3) purchasing power parity-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP-PPP) losses. In the first two models, assumptions included that all individuals worked until 65 years of age, and that half of all visual impairment cases in the >50-year age group would be in those aged between 50 and 65 years. Loss of productivity was estimated to be 100% for blind individuals and 30% for those with MSVI. None of these models included direct medical costs related to visual impairment. The estimated number of blind people in the EU population aged >50 years is ~1.28 million, with a further 9.99 million living with MSVI. Based on the three models, the estimated cost of blindness is €7.81 billion, €6.29 billion and €17.29 billion and that of MSVI €18.02 billion, €24.80 billion and €39.23 billion, with their combined costs €25.83 billion, €31.09 billion and €56.52 billion, respectively. The estimates from the MW and adjusted GDP-PPP models were generally comparable, whereas the GNI model estimates were higher, probably reflecting the lack of adjustment for unemployment. The cost of blindness and MSVI in the EU is substantial. Wider use of available cost-effective treatment and prevention strategies may reduce the burden significantly.

Calorie restriction (CR) and CR mimetics for the prevention and treatment of age-related eye disorders.

PubMed

Kawashima, Motoko; Ozawa, Yoko; Shinmura, Ken; Inaba, Takaaki; Nakamura, Shigeru; Kawakita, Tetsuya; Watanabe, Mitsuhiro; Tsubota, Kazuo

2013-10-01

The morbidity of ocular diseases, including macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy, and dry eye disease, has been gradually increasing worldwide. Because these diseases develop from age-associated ocular dysfunctions, interventions against the aging process itself may be a promising strategy for their management. Among the several approaches to interrupt aging processes, calorie restriction (CR) has been shown to recover and/or slow age-related functional declines in various organs, including the eye. Here, we review interventions against the aging process as potential therapeutic approaches to age-related ocular diseases. The effects of CR and CR mimetics in animal models of age-related eye diseases are explored. Furthermore, we discuss the possibilities of expanding this research to prospective studies to elucidate the molecular mechanisms by which CR and/or CR mimetics preserve ocular functions. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and Validation of an Older Occupant Finite Element Model of a Mid-Sized Male for Investigation of Age-related Injury Risk.

PubMed

Schoell, Samantha L; Weaver, Ashley A; Urban, Jillian E; Jones, Derek A; Stitzel, Joel D; Hwang, Eunjoo; Reed, Matthew P; Rupp, Jonathan D; Hu, Jingwen

2015-11-01

The aging population is a growing concern as the increased fragility and frailty of the elderly results in an elevated incidence of injury as well as an increased risk of mortality and morbidity. To assess elderly injury risk, age-specific computational models can be developed to directly calculate biomechanical metrics for injury. The first objective was to develop an older occupant Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) average male model (M50) representative of a 65 year old (YO) and to perform regional validation tests to investigate predicted fractures and injury severity with age. Development of the GHBMC M50 65 YO model involved implementing geometric, cortical thickness, and material property changes with age. Regional validation tests included a chest impact, a lateral impact, a shoulder impact, a thoracoabdominal impact, an abdominal bar impact, a pelvic impact, and a lateral sled test. The second objective was to investigate age-related injury risks by performing a frontal US NCAP simulation test with the GHBMC M50 65 YO and the GHBMC M50 v4.2 models. Simulation results were compared to the GHBMC M50 v4.2 to evaluate the effect of age on occupant response and risk for head injury, neck injury, thoracic injury, and lower extremity injury. Overall, the GHBMC M50 65 YO model predicted higher probabilities of AIS 3+ injury for the head and thorax.

Use of reflectance spectrophotometry and colorimetry in a general linear model for the determination of the age of bruises.

PubMed

Hughes, Vanessa K; Langlois, Neil E I

2010-12-01

Bruises can have medicolegal significance such that the age of a bruise may be an important issue. This study sought to determine if colorimetry or reflectance spectrophotometry could be employed to objectively estimate the age of bruises. Based on a previously described method, reflectance spectrophotometric scans were obtained from bruises using a Cary 100 Bio spectrophotometer fitted with a fibre-optic reflectance probe. Measurements were taken from the bruise and a control area. Software was used to calculate the first derivative at 490 and 480 nm; the proportion of oxygenated hemoglobin was calculated using an isobestic point method and a software application converted the scan data into colorimetry data. In addition, data on factors that might be associated with the determination of the age of a bruise: subject age, subject sex, degree of trauma, bruise size, skin color, body build, and depth of bruise were recorded. From 147 subjects, 233 reflectance spectrophotometry scans were obtained for analysis. The age of the bruises ranged from 0.5 to 231.5 h. A General Linear Model analysis method was used. This revealed that colorimetric measurement of the yellowness of a bruise accounted for 13% of the bruise age. By incorporation of the other recorded data (as above), yellowness could predict up to 32% of the age of a bruise-implying that 68% of the variation was dependent on other factors. However, critical appraisal of the model revealed that the colorimetry method of determining the age of a bruise was affected by skin tone and required a measure of the proportion of oxygenated hemoglobin, which is obtained by spectrophotometric methods. Using spectrophotometry, the first derivative at 490 nm alone accounted for 18% of the bruise age estimate. When additional factors (subject sex, bruise depth and oxygenation of hemoglobin) were included in the General Linear Model this increased to 31%-implying that 69% of the variation was dependent on other factors. This indicates that spectrophotometry would be of more use that colorimetry for assessing the age of bruises, but the spectrophotometric method used needs to be refined to provide useful data regarding the estimated age of a bruise. Such refinements might include the use of multiple readings or utilizing a comprehensive mathematical model of the optics of skin.

Sex differences in the effect of aging on dry eye disease.

PubMed

Ahn, Jong Ho; Choi, Yoon-Hyeong; Paik, Hae Jung; Kim, Mee Kum; Wee, Won Ryang; Kim, Dong Hyun

2017-01-01

Aging is a major risk factor in dry eye disease (DED), and understanding sexual differences is very important in biomedical research. However, there is little information about sex differences in the effect of aging on DED. We investigated sex differences in the effect of aging and other risk factors for DED. This study included data of 16,824 adults from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2010-2012), which is a population-based cross-sectional survey. DED was defined as the presence of frequent ocular dryness or a previous diagnosis by an ophthalmologist. Basic sociodemographic factors and previously known risk factors for DED were included in the analyses. Linear regression modeling and multivariate logistic regression modeling were used to compare the sex differences in the effect of risk factors for DED; we additionally performed tests for interactions between sex and other risk factors for DED in logistic regression models. In our linear regression models, the prevalence of DED symptoms in men increased with age ( R =0.311, P =0.012); however, there was no association between aging and DED in women ( P >0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that aging in men was not associated with DED (DED symptoms/diagnosis: odds ratio [OR] =1.01/1.04, each P >0.05), while aging in women was protectively associated with DED (DED symptoms/diagnosis: OR =0.94/0.91, P =0.011/0.003). Previous ocular surgery was significantly associated with DED in both men and women (men/women: OR =2.45/1.77 [DED symptoms] and 3.17/2.05 [DED diagnosis], each P <0.001). Tests for interactions of sex revealed significantly different aging × sex and previous ocular surgery × sex interactions ( P for interaction of sex: DED symptoms/diagnosis - 0.044/0.011 [age] and 0.012/0.006 [previous ocular surgery]). There were distinct sex differences in the effect of aging on DED in the Korean population. DED following ocular surgery also showed sexually different patterns. Age matching and sex matching are strongly recommended in further studies about DED, especially DED following ocular surgery.

Mechanistic Prediction of the Effect of Microstructural Coarsening on Creep Response of SnAgCu Solder Joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, S.; Chauhan, P.; Osterman, M.; Dasgupta, A.; Pecht, M.

2016-07-01

Mechanistic microstructural models have been developed to capture the effect of isothermal aging on time dependent viscoplastic response of Sn3.0Ag0.5Cu (SAC305) solders. SnAgCu (SAC) solders undergo continuous microstructural coarsening during both storage and service because of their high homologous temperature. The microstructures of these low melting point alloys continuously evolve during service. This results in evolution of creep properties of the joint over time, thereby influencing the long term reliability of microelectronic packages. It is well documented that isothermal aging degrades the creep resistance of SAC solder. SAC305 alloy is aged for (24-1000) h at (25-100)°C (~0.6-0.8 × T melt). Cross-sectioning and image processing techniques were used to periodically quantify the effect of isothermal aging on phase coarsening and evolution. The parameters monitored during isothermal aging include size, area fraction, and inter-particle spacing of nanoscale Ag3Sn intermetallic compounds (IMCs) and the volume fraction of micronscale Cu6Sn5 IMCs, as well as the area fraction of pure tin dendrites. Effects of microstructural evolution on secondary creep constitutive response of SAC305 solder joints were then modeled using a mechanistic multiscale creep model. The mechanistic phenomena modeled include: (1) dispersion strengthening by coarsened nanoscale Ag3Sn IMCs in the eutectic phase; and (2) load sharing between pro-eutectic Sn dendrites and the surrounding coarsened eutectic Sn-Ag phase and microscale Cu6Sn5 IMCs. The coarse-grained polycrystalline Sn microstructure in SAC305 solder was not captured in the above model because isothermal aging does not cause any significant change in the initial grain size and orientation of SAC305 solder joints. The above mechanistic model can successfully capture the drop in creep resistance due to the influence of isothermal aging on SAC305 single crystals. Contribution of grain boundary sliding to the creep strain of coarse grained joints has not been modeled in this study.

Bayesian Covariate Selection in Mixed-Effects Models For Longitudinal Shape Analysis

PubMed Central

Muralidharan, Prasanna; Fishbaugh, James; Kim, Eun Young; Johnson, Hans J.; Paulsen, Jane S.; Gerig, Guido; Fletcher, P. Thomas

2016-01-01

The goal of longitudinal shape analysis is to understand how anatomical shape changes over time, in response to biological processes, including growth, aging, or disease. In many imaging studies, it is also critical to understand how these shape changes are affected by other factors, such as sex, disease diagnosis, IQ, etc. Current approaches to longitudinal shape analysis have focused on modeling age-related shape changes, but have not included the ability to handle covariates. In this paper, we present a novel Bayesian mixed-effects shape model that incorporates simultaneous relationships between longitudinal shape data and multiple predictors or covariates to the model. Moreover, we place an Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) prior on the parameters, that lets us automatically select which covariates are most relevant to the model based on observed data. We evaluate our proposed model and inference procedure on a longitudinal study of Huntington's disease from PREDICT-HD. We first show the utility of the ARD prior for model selection in a univariate modeling of striatal volume, and next we apply the full high-dimensional longitudinal shape model to putamen shapes. PMID:28090246

Approaches in methodology for population-based longitudinal study on neuroprotective model for healthy longevity (TUA) among Malaysian Older Adults.

PubMed

Shahar, Suzana; Omar, Azahadi; Vanoh, Divya; Hamid, Tengku Aizan; Mukari, Siti Zamratol Mai-Sarah; Din, Normah Che; Rajab, Nor Fadilah; Mohammed, Zainora; Ibrahim, Rahimah; Loo, Won Hui; Meramat, Asheila; Kamaruddin, Mohd Zul Amin; Bagat, Mohamad Fazdillah; Razali, Rosdinom

2016-12-01

A number of longitudinal studies on aging have been designed to determine the predictors of healthy longevity, including the neuroprotective factors, however, relatively few studies included a wide range of factors and highlighted the challenges faced during data collection. Thus, the longitudinal study on neuroprotective model for healthy longevity (LRGS TUA) has been designed to prospectively investigate the magnitude of cognitive decline and its risk factors through a comprehensive multidimensional assessment comprising of biophysical health, auditory and visual function, nutrition and dietary pattern and psychosocial aspects. At baseline, subjects were interviewed for their status on sociodemographic, health, neuropsychological test, psychosocial and dietary intake. Subjects were also measured for anthropometric and physical function and fitness. Biospecimens including blood, buccal swap, hair and toenail were collected, processed and stored. A subsample was assessed for sensory function, i.e., vision and auditory. During follow-up, at 18 and 36 months, most of the measurements, along with morbidity and mortality outcomes will be collected. The description of mild cognitive impairment, successful aging and usual aging process is presented here. A total 2322 respondents were recruited in the data analysis at baseline. Most of the respondents were categorized as experiencing usual aging (73 %), followed by successful aging (11 %) and mild cognitive impairment (16 %). The LRGS TUA study is the most comprehensive longitudinal study on aging in Malaysia, and will contribute to the understanding of the aging process and factors associated with healthy aging and mental well-being of a multiethnic population in Malaysia.

Sensitivity of Age-of-Air Calculations to the Choice of Advection Scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Hemler, Richard S.; Mahlman, Jerry D.; Bruhwiler, Lori; Takacs, Lawrence L.

2000-01-01

The age of air has recently emerged as a diagnostic of atmospheric transport unaffected by chemical parameterizations, and the features in the age distributions computed in models have been interpreted in terms of the models' large-scale circulation field. This study shows, however, that in addition to the simulated large-scale circulation, three-dimensional age calculations can also be affected by the choice of advection scheme employed in solving the tracer continuity equation, Specifically, using the 3.0deg latitude X 3.6deg longitude and 40 vertical level version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory SKYHI GCM and six online transport schemes ranging from Eulerian through semi-Lagrangian to fully Lagrangian, it will be demonstrated that the oldest ages are obtained using the nondiffusive centered-difference schemes while the youngest ages are computed with a semi-Lagrangian transport (SLT) scheme. The centered- difference schemes are capable of producing ages older than 10 years in the mesosphere, thus eliminating the "young bias" found in previous age-of-air calculations. At this stage, only limited intuitive explanations can be advanced for this sensitivity of age-of-air calculations to the choice of advection scheme, In particular, age distributions computed online with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (MACCM3) using different varieties of the SLT scheme are substantially older than the SKYHI SLT distribution. The different varieties, including a noninterpolating-in-the-vertical version (which is essentially centered-difference in the vertical), also produce a narrower range of age distributions than the suite of advection schemes employed in the SKYHI model. While additional MACCM3 experiments with a wider range of schemes would be necessary to provide more definitive insights, the older and less variable MACCM3 age distributions can plausibly be interpreted as being due to the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian dynamics employed in the MACCM3. This type of dynamical core (employed with a 60-min time step) is likely to reduce SLT's interpolation errors that are compounded by the short-term variability characteristic of the explicit centered-difference dynamics employed in the SKYHI model (time step of 3 min). In the extreme case of a very slowly varying circulation, the choice of advection scheme has no effect on two-dimensional (latitude-height) age-of-air calculations, owing to the smooth nature of the transport circulation in 2D models. These results suggest that nondiffusive schemes may be the preferred choice for multiyear simulations of tracers not overly sensitive to the requirement of monotonicity (this category includes many greenhouse gases). At the same time, age-of-air calculations offer a simple quantitative diagnostic of a scheme's long-term diffusive properties and may help in the evaluation of dynamical cores in multiyear integrations. On the other hand, the sensitivity of the computed ages to the model numerics calls for caution in using age of air as a diagnostic of a GCM's large-scale circulation field.

Large scale study on the variation of RF energy absorption in the head & brain regions of adults and children and evaluation of the SAM phantom conservativeness.

PubMed

Keshvari, J; Kivento, M; Christ, A; Bit-Babik, G

2016-04-21

This paper presents the results of two computational large scale studies using highly realistic exposure scenarios, MRI based human head and hand models, and two mobile phone models. The objectives are (i) to study the relevance of age when people are exposed to RF by comparing adult and child heads and (ii) to analyze and discuss the conservativeness of the SAM phantom for all age groups. Representative use conditions were simulated using detailed CAD models of two mobile phones operating between 900 MHz and 1950 MHz including configurations with the hand holding the phone, which were not considered in most previous studies. The peak spatial-average specific absorption rate (psSAR) in the head and the pinna tissues is assessed using anatomically accurate head and hand models. The first of the two mentioned studies involved nine head-, four hand- and two phone-models, the second study included six head-, four hand- and three simplified phone-models (over 400 configurations in total). In addition, both studies also evaluated the exposure using the SAM phantom. Results show no systematic differences between psSAR induced in the adult and child heads. The exposure level and its variation for different age groups may be different for particular phones, but no correlation between psSAR and model age was found. The psSAR from all exposure conditions was compared to the corresponding configurations using SAM, which was found to be conservative in the large majority of cases.

Large scale study on the variation of RF energy absorption in the head & brain regions of adults and children and evaluation of the SAM phantom conservativeness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keshvari, J.; Kivento, M.; Christ, A.; Bit-Babik, G.

2016-04-01

This paper presents the results of two computational large scale studies using highly realistic exposure scenarios, MRI based human head and hand models, and two mobile phone models. The objectives are (i) to study the relevance of age when people are exposed to RF by comparing adult and child heads and (ii) to analyze and discuss the conservativeness of the SAM phantom for all age groups. Representative use conditions were simulated using detailed CAD models of two mobile phones operating between 900 MHz and 1950 MHz including configurations with the hand holding the phone, which were not considered in most previous studies. The peak spatial-average specific absorption rate (psSAR) in the head and the pinna tissues is assessed using anatomically accurate head and hand models. The first of the two mentioned studies involved nine head-, four hand- and two phone-models, the second study included six head-, four hand- and three simplified phone-models (over 400 configurations in total). In addition, both studies also evaluated the exposure using the SAM phantom. Results show no systematic differences between psSAR induced in the adult and child heads. The exposure level and its variation for different age groups may be different for particular phones, but no correlation between psSAR and model age was found. The psSAR from all exposure conditions was compared to the corresponding configurations using SAM, which was found to be conservative in the large majority of cases.

Exploring oxidative ageing behaviour of hydrocarbons using ab initio molecular dynamics analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Tongyan; Cheng, Cheng

2016-06-01

With a proper approximate solution to the Schrödinger Equation of a multi-electron system, the method of ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) performs first-principles molecular dynamics analysis without pre-defining interatomic potentials as are mandatory in traditional molecular dynamics analyses. The objective of this study is to determine the oxidative-ageing pathway of petroleum asphalt as a typical hydrocarbon system, using the AIMD method. This objective was accomplished in three steps, including (1) identifying a group of representative asphalt molecules to model, (2) determining an atomistic modelling method that can effectively simulate the production of critical functional groups in oxidative ageing of hydrocarbons and (3) evaluating the oxidative-ageing pathway of a hydrocarbon system. The determination of oxidative-ageing pathway of hydrocarbons was done by tracking the generations of critical functional groups in the course of oxidative ageing. The chemical elements of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur all experience oxidative reactions, producing polarised functional groups such as ketones, aldehydes or carboxylic acids, pyrrolic groups and sulphoxides. The electrostatic forces of the polarised groups generated in oxidation are responsible for the behaviour of aged hydrocarbons. The developed AIMD model can be used for modelling the ageing of generic hydrocarbon polymers and developing antioxidants without running expensive experiments.

Boosting structured additive quantile regression for longitudinal childhood obesity data.

PubMed

Fenske, Nora; Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Hothorn, Torsten; Rzehak, Peter; Höhle, Michael

2013-07-25

Childhood obesity and the investigation of its risk factors has become an important public health issue. Our work is based on and motivated by a German longitudinal study including 2,226 children with up to ten measurements on their body mass index (BMI) and risk factors from birth to the age of 10 years. We introduce boosting of structured additive quantile regression as a novel distribution-free approach for longitudinal quantile regression. The quantile-specific predictors of our model include conventional linear population effects, smooth nonlinear functional effects, varying-coefficient terms, and individual-specific effects, such as intercepts and slopes. Estimation is based on boosting, a computer intensive inference method for highly complex models. We propose a component-wise functional gradient descent boosting algorithm that allows for penalized estimation of the large variety of different effects, particularly leading to individual-specific effects shrunken toward zero. This concept allows us to flexibly estimate the nonlinear age curves of upper quantiles of the BMI distribution, both on population and on individual-specific level, adjusted for further risk factors and to detect age-varying effects of categorical risk factors. Our model approach can be regarded as the quantile regression analog of Gaussian additive mixed models (or structured additive mean regression models), and we compare both model classes with respect to our obesity data.

Leaf aging of Amazonian canopy trees as revealed by spectral and physiochemical measurements.

PubMed

Chavana-Bryant, Cecilia; Malhi, Yadvinder; Wu, Jin; Asner, Gregory P; Anastasiou, Athanasios; Enquist, Brian J; Cosio Caravasi, Eric G; Doughty, Christopher E; Saleska, Scott R; Martin, Roberta E; Gerard, France F

2017-05-01

Leaf aging is a fundamental driver of changes in leaf traits, thereby regulating ecosystem processes and remotely sensed canopy dynamics. We explore leaf reflectance as a tool to monitor leaf age and develop a spectra-based partial least squares regression (PLSR) model to predict age using data from a phenological study of 1099 leaves from 12 lowland Amazonian canopy trees in southern Peru. Results demonstrated monotonic decreases in leaf water (LWC) and phosphorus (P mass ) contents and an increase in leaf mass per unit area (LMA) with age across trees; leaf nitrogen (N mass ) and carbon (C mass ) contents showed monotonic but tree-specific age responses. We observed large age-related variation in leaf spectra across trees. A spectra-based model was more accurate in predicting leaf age (R 2  = 0.86; percent root mean square error (%RMSE) = 33) compared with trait-based models using single (R 2  = 0.07-0.73; %RMSE = 7-38) and multiple (R 2  = 0.76; %RMSE = 28) predictors. Spectra- and trait-based models established a physiochemical basis for the spectral age model. Vegetation indices (VIs) including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index 2 (EVI2), normalized difference water index (NDWI) and photosynthetic reflectance index (PRI) were all age-dependent. This study highlights the importance of leaf age as a mediator of leaf traits, provides evidence of age-related leaf reflectance changes that have important impacts on VIs used to monitor canopy dynamics and productivity and proposes a new approach to predicting and monitoring leaf age with important implications for remote sensing. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

The role of dietary carbohydrates in organismal aging.

PubMed

Lee, Dongyeop; Son, Heehwa G; Jung, Yoonji; Lee, Seung-Jae V

2017-05-01

Carbohydrates are essential nutrients that are used as a primary source of energy. Carbohydrate utilization should be properly controlled, as abnormal regulation of carbohydrate metabolism is associated with diseases, such as diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and stroke. These metabolic syndromes have become a serious problem in developed countries, and there is an increased need for research examining the influence of carbohydrates on animal physiology. Diets enriched in glucose, a major carbohydrate, are also associated with accelerated aging in several model organisms, including yeast and Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans). Genetic factors that mediate the effects of high glucose diets on aging have been identified during the last decade, mostly through the use of C. elegans. In this review, we describe studies that determine the effects of carbohydrate-enriched diets on aging by focusing on the mechanisms through which evolutionarily conserved pathways mediate the lifespan-altering effects of glucose in C. elegans. These include the insulin/insulin-like growth factor-1, sterol-regulatory element-binding protein, and AMP-activated protein kinase signaling pathways. We also discuss the effects of various carbohydrates and carbohydrate-derived metabolites on aging in model organisms and cultured mammalian cells. Finally, we discuss how dietary carbohydrates influence health and aging in humans.

CRISPR-Cas9 Mediated Telomere Removal Leads to Mitochondrial Stress and Protein Aggregation.

PubMed

Kim, Hyojung; Ham, Sangwoo; Jo, Minkyung; Lee, Gum Hwa; Lee, Yun-Song; Shin, Joo-Ho; Lee, Yunjong

2017-10-03

Aging is considered the major risk factor for neurodegenerative diseases including Parkinson's disease (PD). Telomere shortening is associated with cellular senescence. In this regard, pharmacological or genetic inhibition of telomerase activity has been used to model cellular aging. Here, we employed CRISPR-Cas9 technology to instantly remove the telomere to induce aging in a neuroblastoma cell line. Expression of both Cas9 and guide RNA targeting telomere repeats ablated the telomere, leading to retardation of cell proliferation. Instant deletion of telomere in SH-SY5Y cells impaired mitochondrial function with diminished mitochondrial respiration and cell viability. Supporting the pathological relevance of cell aging by CRISPR-Cas9 mediated telomere removal, alterations were observed in the levels of PD-associated proteins including PTEN-induced putative kinase 1, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ coactivator 1-α, nuclear respiratory factor 1, parkin, and aminoacyl tRNA synthetase complex interacting multifunctional protein 2. Significantly, α-synuclein expression in the background of telomere removal led to the enhancement of protein aggregation, suggesting positive feed-forward interaction between aging and PD pathogenesis. Collectively, our results demonstrate that CRISPR-Cas9 can be used to efficiently model cellular aging and PD.

Plasma Carotenoids, Tocopherols, and Retinol in the Age-Stratified (35-74 Years) General Population: A Cross-Sectional Study in Six European Countries.

PubMed

Stuetz, Wolfgang; Weber, Daniela; Dollé, Martijn E T; Jansen, Eugène; Grubeck-Loebenstein, Beatrix; Fiegl, Simone; Toussaint, Olivier; Bernhardt, Juergen; Gonos, Efstathios S; Franceschi, Claudio; Sikora, Ewa; Moreno-Villanueva, María; Breusing, Nicolle; Grune, Tilman; Bürkle, Alexander

2016-09-30

Blood micronutrient status may change with age. We analyzed plasma carotenoids, α-/γ-tocopherol, and retinol and their associations with age, demographic characteristics, and dietary habits (assessed by a short food frequency questionnaire) in a cross-sectional study of 2118 women and men (age-stratified from 35 to 74 years) of the general population from six European countries. Higher age was associated with lower lycopene and α-/β-carotene and higher β-cryptoxanthin, lutein, zeaxanthin, α-/γ-tocopherol, and retinol levels. Significant correlations with age were observed for lycopene ( r = -0.248), α-tocopherol ( r = 0.208), α-carotene ( r = -0.112), and β-cryptoxanthin ( r = 0.125; all p < 0.001). Age was inversely associated with lycopene (-6.5% per five-year age increase) and this association remained in the multiple regression model with the significant predictors (covariables) being country, season, cholesterol, gender, smoking status, body mass index (BMI (kg/m²)), and dietary habits. The positive association of α-tocopherol with age remained when all covariates including cholesterol and use of vitamin supplements were included (1.7% vs. 2.4% per five-year age increase). The association of higher β-cryptoxanthin with higher age was no longer statistically significant after adjustment for fruit consumption, whereas the inverse association of α-carotene with age remained in the fully adjusted multivariable model (-4.8% vs. -3.8% per five-year age increase). We conclude from our study that age is an independent predictor of plasma lycopene, α-tocopherol, and α-carotene.

Dynamical analysis of cellular ageing by modeling of gene regulatory network based attractor landscape.

PubMed

Chong, Ket Hing; Zhang, Xiaomeng; Zheng, Jie

2018-01-01

Ageing is a natural phenomenon that is inherently complex and remains a mystery. Conceptual model of cellular ageing landscape was proposed for computational studies of ageing. However, there is a lack of quantitative model of cellular ageing landscape. This study aims to investigate the mechanism of cellular ageing in a theoretical model using the framework of Waddington's epigenetic landscape. We construct an ageing gene regulatory network (GRN) consisting of the core cell cycle regulatory genes (including p53). A model parameter (activation rate) is used as a measure of the accumulation of DNA damage. Using the bifurcation diagrams to estimate the parameter values that lead to multi-stability, we obtained a conceptual model for capturing three distinct stable steady states (or attractors) corresponding to homeostasis, cell cycle arrest, and senescence or apoptosis. In addition, we applied a Monte Carlo computational method to quantify the potential landscape, which displays: I) one homeostasis attractor for low accumulation of DNA damage; II) two attractors for cell cycle arrest and senescence (or apoptosis) in response to high accumulation of DNA damage. Using the Waddington's epigenetic landscape framework, the process of ageing can be characterized by state transitions from landscape I to II. By in silico perturbations, we identified the potential landscape of a perturbed network (inactivation of p53), and thereby demonstrated the emergence of a cancer attractor. The simulated dynamics of the perturbed network displays a landscape with four basins of attraction: homeostasis, cell cycle arrest, senescence (or apoptosis) and cancer. Our analysis also showed that for the same perturbed network with low DNA damage, the landscape displays only the homeostasis attractor. The mechanistic model offers theoretical insights that can facilitate discovery of potential strategies for network medicine of ageing-related diseases such as cancer.

Ar-Ar and I-Xe Ages of Caddo County and Thermal History of IAB Iron Meteorites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogard, Donald D.; Garrison, Daniel H.; Takeda, Hiroshi

2005-01-01

Inclusions in IAB iron meteorites include non-chondritic silicate and those with more primitive chondritic silicate composition. Coarse-grained gabbroic material rich in plagioclase and diopside occurs in the Caddo County IAB iron meteorite and represents a new type of chemically differentiated, extra-terrestrial, andesitic silicate. Other parts of Caddo contain mostly andesitic material. Caddo thus exhibits petrologic characteristics of parent body metamorphism of a chondrite-like parent and inhomogeneous segregation of melts. Proposed IAB formation models include parent body partial melting and fractional crystallization or incomplete differentiation due to internal heat sources, and impact/induced melting and mixing. Benedix et al. prefer a hybrid model whereby the IAB parent body largely melted, then underwent collisional breakup, partial mixing of phases, and reassembly. Most reported 129I- Xe-129 ages of IABs are greater than 4.56 Gyr and a few are greater than or = 4.567 Gyr. These oldest ages exceed the 4.567 Gyr Pb-Pb age of Ca, Al-rich inclusions in primitive meteorites,

Proton exchange membrane fuel cell model for aging predictions: Simulated equivalent active surface area loss and comparisons with durability tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robin, C.; Gérard, M.; Quinaud, M.; d'Arbigny, J.; Bultel, Y.

2016-09-01

The prediction of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) lifetime is one of the major challenges to optimize both material properties and dynamic control of the fuel cell system. In this study, by a multiscale modeling approach, a mechanistic catalyst dissolution model is coupled to a dynamic PEMFC cell model to predict the performance loss of the PEMFC. Results are compared to two 2000-h experimental aging tests. More precisely, an original approach is introduced to estimate the loss of an equivalent active surface area during an aging test. Indeed, when the computed Electrochemical Catalyst Surface Area profile is fitted on the experimental measures from Cyclic Voltammetry, the computed performance loss of the PEMFC is underestimated. To be able to predict the performance loss measured by polarization curves during the aging test, an equivalent active surface area is obtained by a model inversion. This methodology enables to successfully find back the experimental cell voltage decay during time. The model parameters are fitted from the polarization curves so that they include the global degradation. Moreover, the model captures the aging heterogeneities along the surface of the cell observed experimentally. Finally, a second 2000-h durability test in dynamic operating conditions validates the approach.

A kinetic theory for age-structured stochastic birth-death processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Tom; Greenman, Chris

Classical age-structured mass-action models such as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation have been extensively studied but they are structurally unable to describe stochastic fluctuations or population-size-dependent birth and death rates. Conversely, current theories that include size-dependent population dynamics (e.g., carrying capacity) cannot be easily extended to take into account age-dependent birth and death rates. In this paper, we present a systematic derivation of a new fully stochastic kinetic theory for interacting age-structured populations. By defining multiparticle probability density functions, we derive a hierarchy of kinetic equations for the stochastic evolution of an aging population undergoing birth and death. We show that the fully stochastic age-dependent birth-death process precludes factorization of the corresponding probability densities, which then must be solved by using a BBGKY-like hierarchy. Our results generalize both deterministic models and existing master equation approaches by providing an intuitive and efficient way to simultaneously model age- and population-dependent stochastic dynamics applicable to the study of demography, stem cell dynamics, and disease evolution. NSF.

Random regression models on Legendre polynomials to estimate genetic parameters for weights from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle.

PubMed

Baldi, F; Albuquerque, L G; Alencar, M M

2010-08-01

The objective of this work was to estimate covariance functions for direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects, and subsequently, to derive relevant genetic parameters for growth traits in Canchim cattle. Data comprised 49,011 weight records on 2435 females from birth to adult age. The model of analysis included fixed effects of contemporary groups (year and month of birth and at weighing) and age of dam as quadratic covariable. Mean trends were taken into account by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age. Residual variances were allowed to vary and were modelled by a step function with 1, 4 or 11 classes based on animal's age. The model fitting four classes of residual variances was the best. A total of 12 random regression models from second to seventh order were used to model direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. The model with direct and maternal genetic effects, animal and maternal permanent environmental effects fitted by quadric, cubic, quintic and linear Legendre polynomials, respectively, was the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data. Estimates of direct and maternal heritability obtained by multi-trait (seven traits) and random regression models were very similar. Selection for higher weight at any age, especially after weaning, will produce an increase in mature cow weight. The possibility to modify the growth curve in Canchim cattle to obtain animals with rapid growth at early ages and moderate to low mature cow weight is limited.

Impact papers on aging in 2009

PubMed Central

Blagosklonny, Mikhail V.; Campisi, Judy; Sinclair, David A.; Bartke, Andrzej; Blasco, Maria A.; Bonner, William M.; Bohr, Vilhelm A.; Jr, Robert M. Brosh; Brunet, Anne; DePinho, Ronald A.; Donehower, Lawrence A.; Finch, Caleb E.; Finkel, Toren; Gorospe, Myriam; Gudkov, Andrei V.; Hall, Michael N.; Hekimi, Siegfried; Helfand, Stephen L.; Karlseder, Jan; Kenyon, Cynthia; Kroemer, Guido; Longo, Valter; Nussenzweig, Andre; Osiewacz, Heinz D.; Peeper, Daniel S.; Rando, Thomas A.; Rudolph, K Lenhard; Sassone-Corsi, Paolo; Serrano, Manuel; Sharpless, Norman E.; Skulachev, Vladimir P.; Tilly, Jonathan L.; Tower, John; Verdin, Eric; Vijg, Jan

2010-01-01

The editorial board of Aging reviews research papers published in 2009, which they believe have or will have a significant impact on aging research. Among many others, the topics include genes that accelerate aging or in contrast promote longevity in model organisms, DNA damage responses and telomeres, molecular mechanisms of life span extension by calorie restriction and pharmacologic interventions into aging. The emerging message in 2009 is that aging is not random but determined by a genetically-regulated longevity network and can be decelerated both genetically and pharmacologically. PMID:20351400

Aging Research Using Mouse Models

PubMed Central

Ackert-Bicknell, Cheryl L.; Anderson, Laura; Sheehan, Susan; Hill, Warren G.; Chang, Bo; Churchill, Gary A.; Chesler, Elissa J.; Korstanje, Ron; Peters, Luanne L.

2015-01-01

Despite the dramatic increase in human lifespan over the past century, there remains pronounced variability in “health-span”, or the period of time in which one is generally healthy and free of disease. Much of the variability in health-span and lifespan is thought to be genetic in origin. Understanding the genetic mechanisms of aging and identifying ways to boost longevity is a primary goal in aging research. Here, we describe a pipeline of phenotypic assays for assessing mouse models of aging. This pipeline includes behavior/cognition testing, body composition analysis, and tests of kidney function, hematopoiesis, immune function and physical parameters. We also describe study design methods for assessing lifespan and health-span, and other important considerations when conducting aging research in the laboratory mouse. The tools and assays provided can assist researchers with understanding the correlative relationships between age-associated phenotypes and, ultimately, the role of specific genes in the aging process. PMID:26069080

Facial Age Synthesis Using Sparse Partial Least Squares (The Case of Ben Needham).

PubMed

Bukar, Ali M; Ugail, Hassan

2017-09-01

Automatic facial age progression (AFAP) has been an active area of research in recent years. This is due to its numerous applications which include searching for missing. This study presents a new method of AFAP. Here, we use an active appearance model (AAM) to extract facial features from available images. An aging function is then modelled using sparse partial least squares regression (sPLS). Thereafter, the aging function is used to render new faces at different ages. To test the accuracy of our algorithm, extensive evaluation is conducted using a database of 500 face images with known ages. Furthermore, the algorithm is used to progress Ben Needham's facial image that was taken when he was 21 months old to the ages of 6, 14, and 22 years. The algorithm presented in this study could potentially be used to enhance the search for missing people worldwide. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Discrete Dynamical Modeling of Influenza Virus Infection Suggests Age-Dependent Differences in Immunity.

PubMed

Keef, Ericka; Zhang, Li Ang; Swigon, David; Urbano, Alisa; Ermentrout, G Bard; Matuszewski, Michael; Toapanta, Franklin R; Ross, Ted M; Parker, Robert S; Clermont, Gilles

2017-12-01

Immunosenescence, an age-related decline in immune function, is a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in the elderly. Older hosts exhibit a delayed onset of immunity and prolonged inflammation after an infection, leading to excess damage and a greater likelihood of death. Our study applies a rule-based model to infer which components of the immune response are most changed in an aged host. Two groups of BALB/c mice (aged 12 to 16 weeks and 72 to 76 weeks) were infected with 2 inocula: a survivable dose of 50 PFU and a lethal dose of 500 PFU. Data were measured at 10 points over 19 days in the sublethal case and at 6 points over 7 days in the lethal case, after which all mice had died. Data varied primarily in the onset of immunity, particularly the inflammatory response, which led to a 2-day delay in the clearance of the virus from older hosts in the sublethal cohort. We developed a Boolean model to describe the interactions between the virus and 21 immune components, including cells, chemokines, and cytokines, of innate and adaptive immunity. The model identifies distinct sets of rules for each age group by using Boolean operators to describe the complex series of interactions that activate and deactivate immune components. Our model accurately simulates the immune responses of mice of both ages and with both inocula included in the data (95% accurate for younger mice and 94% accurate for older mice) and shows distinct rule choices for the innate immunity arm of the model between younger and aging mice in response to influenza A virus infection. IMPORTANCE Influenza virus infection causes high morbidity and mortality rates every year, especially in the elderly. The elderly tend to have a delayed onset of many immune responses as well as prolonged inflammatory responses, leading to an overall weakened response to infection. Many of the details of immune mechanisms that change with age are currently not well understood. We present a rule-based model of the intrahost immune response to influenza virus infection. The model is fit to experimental data for young and old mice infected with influenza virus. We generated distinct sets of rules for each age group to capture the temporal differences seen in the immune responses of these mice. These rules describe a network of interactions leading to either clearance of the virus or death of the host, depending on the initial dosage of the virus. Our models clearly demonstrate differences in these two age groups, particularly in the innate immune responses. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Family ecological predictors of physical activity parenting in low-income families.

PubMed

Lampard, Amy M; Jurkowski, Janine M; Lawson, Hal A; Davison, Kirsten K

2013-01-01

Physical activity (PA) parenting, or strategies parents use to promote PA in children, has been associated with increased PA in children of all ages, including preschool-aged children. However, little is known about the circumstances under which parents adopt such behaviors. This study examined family ecological factors associated with PA parenting. Low-income parents (N = 145) of preschool-aged children (aged 2 to 5 years) were recruited from five Head Start centers in upstate New York. Guided by the family ecological model (FEM), parents completed surveys assessing PA parenting and relevant family and community factors. Hierarchical regression analysis identified independent predictors of PA parenting. Parent depressive symptoms, life pressures that interfere with PA and perceived empowerment to access PA resources were associated with PA parenting. Community factors, including neighborhood play safety and social capital, were not independently associated with PA parenting in the multivariate model. Together, family ecological factors accounted for a large proportion of the variance in PA parenting (R (2) = .37). Findings highlight the need to look beyond cognitive predictors of PA parenting in low-income families and to examine the impact of their broader life circumstances including indicators of stress.

Calibrating binary lumped parameter models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgenstern, Uwe; Stewart, Mike

2017-04-01

Groundwater at its discharge point is a mixture of water from short and long flowlines, and therefore has a distribution of ages rather than a single age. Various transfer functions describe the distribution of ages within the water sample. Lumped parameter models (LPMs), which are mathematical models of water transport based on simplified aquifer geometry and flow configuration can account for such mixing of groundwater of different age, usually representing the age distribution with two parameters, the mean residence time, and the mixing parameter. Simple lumped parameter models can often match well the measured time varying age tracer concentrations, and therefore are a good representation of the groundwater mixing at these sites. Usually a few tracer data (time series and/or multi-tracer) can constrain both parameters. With the building of larger data sets of age tracer data throughout New Zealand, including tritium, SF6, CFCs, and recently Halon-1301, and time series of these tracers, we realised that for a number of wells the groundwater ages using a simple lumped parameter model were inconsistent between the different tracer methods. Contamination or degradation of individual tracers is unlikely because the different tracers show consistent trends over years and decades. This points toward a more complex mixing of groundwaters with different ages for such wells than represented by the simple lumped parameter models. Binary (or compound) mixing models are able to represent a more complex mixing, with mixing of water of two different age distributions. The problem related to these models is that they usually have 5 parameters which makes them data-hungry and therefore difficult to constrain all parameters. Two or more age tracers with different input functions, with multiple measurements over time, can provide the required information to constrain the parameters of the binary mixing model. We obtained excellent results using tritium time series encompassing the passage of the bomb-tritium through the aquifer, and SF6 with its steep gradient currently in the input. We will show age tracer data from drinking water wells that enabled identification of young water ingression into wells, which poses the risk of bacteriological contamination from the surface into the drinking water.

A genome-wide longitudinal transcriptome analysis of the aging model Podospora anserina.

PubMed

Philipp, Oliver; Hamann, Andrea; Servos, Jörg; Werner, Alexandra; Koch, Ina; Osiewacz, Heinz D

2013-01-01

Aging of biological systems is controlled by various processes which have a potential impact on gene expression. Here we report a genome-wide transcriptome analysis of the fungal aging model Podospora anserina. Total RNA of three individuals of defined age were pooled and analyzed by SuperSAGE (serial analysis of gene expression). A bioinformatics analysis identified different molecular pathways to be affected during aging. While the abundance of transcripts linked to ribosomes and to the proteasome quality control system were found to decrease during aging, those associated with autophagy increase, suggesting that autophagy may act as a compensatory quality control pathway. Transcript profiles associated with the energy metabolism including mitochondrial functions were identified to fluctuate during aging. Comparison of wild-type transcripts, which are continuously down-regulated during aging, with those down-regulated in the long-lived, copper-uptake mutant grisea, validated the relevance of age-related changes in cellular copper metabolism. Overall, we (i) present a unique age-related data set of a longitudinal study of the experimental aging model P. anserina which represents a reference resource for future investigations in a variety of organisms, (ii) suggest autophagy to be a key quality control pathway that becomes active once other pathways fail, and (iii) present testable predictions for subsequent experimental investigations.

Molecular and Cellular Interactions between Mother and Fetus. Pregnancy as a Rejuvenating Factor.

PubMed

Popkov, V A; Silachev, D N; Jankauskas, S S; Zorova, L D; Pevzner, I B; Babenko, V A; Plotnikov, E Y; Zorov, D B

2016-12-01

Aging is associated with a decline of various body functions, including ability to regenerate. Over recent decades, it has been demonstrated that some of these changes could be reversed in response to factors originating from a young organism, for example, fetal stem cells or "young blood" in models of heterochronic parabiosis. Pregnancy might be considered as parabiotic model of the interaction between two organisms of different age. In this work, we analyzed and summarized data on the effects of pregnancy on the maternal organism that confirm the hypothesis that pregnancy rejuvenates the mother's organism or slows its aging.

Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

2011-12-01

To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

Leaf Aging of Amazonian Canopy Trees: Insights to Tropical Ecological Processes and Satellited Detected Canopy Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavana-Bryant, C.; Malhi, Y.; Gerard, F.

2015-12-01

Leaf aging is a fundamental driver of changes in leaf traits, thereby, regulating ecosystem processes and remotely-sensed canopy dynamics. Leaf age is particularly important for carbon-rich tropical evergreen forests, as leaf demography (leaf age distribution) has been proposed as a major driver of seasonal productivity in these forests. We explore leaf reflectance as a tool to monitor leaf age and develop a novel spectra-based (PLSR) model to predict age using data from a phenological study of 1,072 leaves from 12 lowland Amazonian canopy tree species in southern Peru. Our results demonstrate monotonic decreases in LWC and Pmass and increase in LMA with age across species; Nmass and Cmassshowed monotonic but species-specific age responses. Spectrally, we observed large age-related variation across species, with the most age-sensitive spectral domains found to be: green peak (550nm), red edge (680-750 nm), NIR (700-850 nm), and around the main water absorption features (~1450 and ~1940 nm). A spectra-based model was more accurate in predicting leaf age (R2= 0.86; %RMSE= 33) compared to trait-based models using single (R2=0.07 to 0.73; %RMSE=7 to 38) and multiple predictors (step-wise analysis; R2=0.76; %RMSE=28). Spectral and trait-based models established a physiochemical basis for the spectral age model. The relative importance of the traits modifying the leaf spectra of aging leaves was: LWC>LMA>Nmass>Pmass,&Cmass. Vegetation indices (VIs), including NDVI, EVI2, NDWI and PRI were all age-dependent. This study highlights the importance of leaf age as a mediator of leaf traits, provides evidence of age-related leaf reflectance changes that have important impacts on VIs used to monitor canopy dynamics and productivity, and proposes a new approach to predicting and monitoring leaf age with important implications for remote sensing.

Using Radiation Risk Models in Cancer Screening Simulations: Important Assumptions and Effects on Outcome Projections

PubMed Central

Lee, Janie M.; McMahon, Pamela M.; Lowry, Kathryn P.; Omer, Zehra B.; Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Pandharipande, Pari V.; Gazelle, G. Scott

2012-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the effect of incorporating radiation risk into microsimulation (first-order Monte Carlo) models for breast and lung cancer screening to illustrate effects of including radiation risk on patient outcome projections. Materials and Methods: All data used in this study were derived from publicly available or deidentified human subject data. Institutional review board approval was not required. The challenges of incorporating radiation risk into simulation models are illustrated with two cancer screening models (Breast Cancer Model and Lung Cancer Policy Model) adapted to include radiation exposure effects from mammography and chest computed tomography (CT), respectively. The primary outcome projected by the breast model was life expectancy (LE) for BRCA1 mutation carriers. Digital mammographic screening beginning at ages 25, 30, 35, and 40 years was evaluated in the context of screenings with false-positive results and radiation exposure effects. The primary outcome of the lung model was lung cancer–specific mortality reduction due to annual screening, comparing two diagnostic CT protocols for lung nodule evaluation. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to estimate the mean values of the results with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: Without radiation exposure effects, the breast model indicated that annual digital mammography starting at age 25 years maximized LE (72.03 years; 95% UI: 72.01 years, 72.05 years) and had the highest number of screenings with false-positive results (2.0 per woman). When radiation effects were included, annual digital mammography beginning at age 30 years maximized LE (71.90 years; 95% UI: 71.87 years, 71.94 years) with a lower number of screenings with false-positive results (1.4 per woman). For annual chest CT screening of 50-year-old females with no follow-up for nodules smaller than 4 mm in diameter, the lung model predicted lung cancer–specific mortality reduction of 21.50% (95% UI: 20.90%, 22.10%) without radiation risk and 17.75% (95% UI: 16.97%, 18.41%) with radiation risk. Conclusion: Because including radiation exposure risk can influence long-term projections from simulation models, it is important to include these risks when conducting modeling-based assessments of diagnostic imaging. © RSNA, 2012 Supplemental material: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11110352/-/DC1 PMID:22357897

Theories of Memory and Aging: A Look at the Past and a Glimpse of the Future

PubMed Central

Festini, Sara B.

2017-01-01

The present article reviews theories of memory and aging over the past 50 years. Particularly notable is a progression from early single-mechanism perspectives to complex multifactorial models proposed to account for commonly observed age deficits in memory function. The seminal mechanistic theories of processing speed, limited resources, and inhibitory deficits are discussed and viewed as especially important theories for understanding age-related memory decline. Additionally, advances in multivariate techniques including structural equation modeling provided new tools that led to the development of more complex multifactorial theories than existed earlier. The important role of neuroimaging is considered, along with the current prevalence of intervention studies. We close with predictions about new directions that future research on memory and aging will take. PMID:27257229

Conference on Correlations of Aging and Space Effects on Biosystems, Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 1989, Proceedings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sprott, Richard L. (Editor); Combs, Carol A. (Editor)

1991-01-01

This volume includes papers on correlations between aging effects and space effects on biosystems, with particular attention given to the effects on the cardiovascular system, bone, sleep, cellular systems, immunological system, and genetics. Papers are presented on NASA and NIA plans and opportunities, the age effect on the posture and circulation, the cardiovascular physiology in space flight, and age-related bone changes. Attention is given to research on sleep, circulation rhythms, and aging and its applications to manned spaceflight; sleep and circadian rhythms; altered cell function in microgravity; and the heterogeneity of changes in lymphoproliferative ability with increasing age. Also included is a review of cellular immunosenescence, a paper on the immune response during space flight, and a paper on Caenorhabditis elegans as a model system for space biology studies.

Relationship between dietary pattern and cognitive function in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Enomoto, Mari; Yoshii, Hidenori; Mita, Tomoya; Sanke, Haruna; Yokota, Ayako; Yamashiro, Keiko; Inagaki, Noriko; Gosho, Masahiko; Ohmura, Chie; Kudo, Kayo; Watada, Hirotaka; Onuma, Tomio

2015-08-01

To analyse the relationships between dietary patterns and cognitive function in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Patients with T2DM completed a 3-day dietary record and Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE). Dietary patterns were identified by factor analysis. The study included 73 patients and identified five dietary patterns, one of which was characterized by high loading for vegetables and fish. A higher consumption of vegetables and fish was significantly associated with improved MMSE score (unadjusted model, model adjusted for age and sex, and model adjusted for age, sex, education, diabetic nephropathy and alcohol consumption), and decreased prevalence of suspected mild dementia (unadjusted model, model adjusted for age and sex). A high score in the vegetables and fish dietary pattern was associated with high MMSE score and low prevalence of suspected mild dementia in elderly patients with T2DM. © The Author(s) 2015.

Systems, methods and computer-readable media for modeling cell performance fade of rechargeable electrochemical devices

DOEpatents

Gering, Kevin L

2013-08-27

A system includes an electrochemical cell, monitoring hardware, and a computing system. The monitoring hardware periodically samples performance characteristics of the electrochemical cell. The computing system determines cell information from the performance characteristics of the electrochemical cell. The computing system also develops a mechanistic level model of the electrochemical cell to determine performance fade characteristics of the electrochemical cell and analyzing the mechanistic level model to estimate performance fade characteristics over aging of a similar electrochemical cell. The mechanistic level model uses first constant-current pulses applied to the electrochemical cell at a first aging period and at three or more current values bracketing a first exchange current density. The mechanistic level model also is based on second constant-current pulses applied to the electrochemical cell at a second aging period and at three or more current values bracketing the second exchange current density.

Mathematical modelling the age dependence of Epstein-Barr virus associated infectious mononucleosis.

PubMed

Huynh, Giao T; Adler, Frederick R

2012-09-01

Most people get Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection at young age and are asymptomatic. Primary EBV infection in adolescents and young adults, however, often leads to infectious mononucleosis (IM) with symptoms including fever, fatigue and sore throat that can persist for months. Expansion in the number of CD8(+) T cells, especially against EBV lytic proteins, are the main cause of these symptoms. We propose a mathematical model for the regulation of EBV infection within a host to address the dependence of IM on age. This model tracks the number of virus, infected B cell and epithelial cell and CD8(+) T-cell responses to the infection. We use this model to investigate three hypotheses for the high incidence of IM in teenagers and young adults: saliva and antibody effects that increase with age, high cross-reactive T-cell responses and a high initial viral load. The model supports the first two of these hypotheses and suggests that variation in host antibody responses and the complexity of the pre-existing cross-reactive T-cell repertoire, both of which depend on age, may play important roles in the etiology of IM.

Novel ageing-biomarker discovery using data-intensive technologies.

PubMed

Griffiths, H R; Augustyniak, E M; Bennett, S J; Debacq-Chainiaux, F; Dunston, C R; Kristensen, P; Melchjorsen, C J; Navarrete, Santos A; Simm, A; Toussaint, O

2015-11-01

Ageing is accompanied by many visible characteristics. Other biological and physiological markers are also well-described e.g. loss of circulating sex hormones and increased inflammatory cytokines. Biomarkers for healthy ageing studies are presently predicated on existing knowledge of ageing traits. The increasing availability of data-intensive methods enables deep-analysis of biological samples for novel biomarkers. We have adopted two discrete approaches in MARK-AGE Work Package 7 for biomarker discovery; (1) microarray analyses and/or proteomics in cell systems e.g. endothelial progenitor cells or T cell ageing including a stress model; and (2) investigation of cellular material and plasma directly from tightly-defined proband subsets of different ages using proteomic, transcriptomic and miR array. The first approach provided longitudinal insight into endothelial progenitor and T cell ageing. This review describes the strategy and use of hypothesis-free, data-intensive approaches to explore cellular proteins, miR, mRNA and plasma proteins as healthy ageing biomarkers, using ageing models and directly within samples from adults of different ages. It considers the challenges associated with integrating multiple models and pilot studies as rational biomarkers for a large cohort study. From this approach, a number of high-throughput methods were developed to evaluate novel, putative biomarkers of ageing in the MARK-AGE cohort. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Model To Identify Individuals at High Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Precancerous Lesions in Regions of High Prevalence in China.

PubMed

Liu, Mengfei; Liu, Zhen; Cai, Hong; Guo, Chuanhai; Li, Xiang; Zhang, Chaoting; Wang, Hui; Hang, Dong; Liu, Fangfang; Deng, Qiuju; Yang, Xin; Yuan, Wenqing; Pan, Yaqi; Li, Jingjing; Zhang, Chanyuan; Shen, Na; He, Zhonghu; Ke, Yang

2017-10-01

We aimed to develop a population-based model to identify individuals at high risk for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in regions of China with a high prevalence of this cancer. We collected findings from 15,073 permanent residents (45-69 years old) of 334 randomly selected villages in Hua County, Henan Province, China who underwent endoscopic screening (with iodine staining) for ESCC from January 2012 through September 2015. The entire esophagus and stomach were examined; biopsies were collected from all focal lesions (or from standard sites in the esophagus if no abnormalities were found) and analyzed histologically. Squamous dysplasia, carcinoma in situ, and ESCC were independently confirmed by 2 pathologists. Before endoscopy, subjects completed a questionnaire on ESCC risk factors. Variables were evaluated with unconditional univariate logistic regression analysis; variables found to be significantly associated with ESCC were then analyzed by multivariate logistic regression modeling. We used the Akaike information criterion to develop our final model structure and the coding form of variables with multiple measures. We developed 2 groups of models, separately defining severe dysplasia and above (SDA) (lesions including severe dysplasia and higher-grade lesions) and moderate dysplasia and above (lesions including moderate dysplasia and higher-grade lesions) as outcome events. Age-stratified and whole-age models were developed; their discriminative ability in the full multivariate model and the simple age model was compared. We performed area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the DeLong test to evaluate model performance. Our age-stratified prediction models identified individuals 60 years of age or younger with SDA with an AUC value of 0.795 (95% confidence interval, 0.736-0.854) and individuals older than 60 years with SDA with an AUC value of 0.681 (95% confidence interval, 0.618-0.743). Factors associated with SDA in individuals 60 years or younger included age closer to 60 years, use of coal or wood as a main source of cooking fuel, body mass index of 22 kg/m 2 or less, unexplained epigastric pain, and rapid ingestion of meals. In subjects older than 60 years, SDA associated with age, family history of ESCC, cigarette smoking, body mass index of 22 kg/m 2 or less, pesticide exposure, irregular eating habits, intake of high temperature foods, rapid ingestion of meals, and ingestion of leftover food in summer months. Use of our model in screening could have allowed 27% of subjects 60 years or younger and 9% of subjects older than 60 years to avoid endoscopy without missing SDAs. This means that approximately 2500 of endoscopies in total (16.6%) could have been avoided. We developed a low-cost, easy-to-use model to identify individuals at risk for severe dysplasia or cancer of the esophagus living in a region of China with a high risk of ESCC. This model might be used to select individuals and groups of persons who should undergo endoscopy analysis for esophageal cancer. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Transactional Analysis of the Relation between Maternal Sensitivity and Child Vagal Regulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perry, Nicole B.; Mackler, Jennifer S.; Calkins, Susan D.; Keane, Susan P.

2014-01-01

A transactional model examining the longitudinal association between vagal regulation (as indexed by vagal withdrawal) and maternal sensitivity from age 2.5 to age 5.5 was assessed. The sample included 356 children (171 male, 185 female) and their mothers who participated in a laboratory visit at age 2.5, 4.5, and 5.5. Cardiac vagal tone was…

Telomeres in aging and disease: lessons from zebrafish.

PubMed

Carneiro, Madalena C; de Castro, Inês Pimenta; Ferreira, Miguel Godinho

2016-07-01

Age is the highest risk factor for some of the most prevalent human diseases, including cancer. Telomere shortening is thought to play a central role in the aging process in humans. The link between telomeres and aging is highlighted by the fact that genetic diseases causing telomerase deficiency are associated with premature aging and increased risk of cancer. For the last two decades, this link has been mostly investigated using mice that have long telomeres. However, zebrafish has recently emerged as a powerful and complementary model system to study telomere biology. Zebrafish possess human-like short telomeres that progressively decline with age, reaching lengths in old age that are observed when telomerase is mutated. The extensive characterization of its well-conserved molecular and cellular physiology makes this vertebrate an excellent model to unravel the underlying relationship between telomere shortening, tissue regeneration, aging and disease. In this Review, we explore the advantages of using zebrafish in telomere research and discuss the primary discoveries made in this model that have contributed to expanding our knowledge of how telomere attrition contributes to cellular senescence, organ dysfunction and disease. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Combined effects of aging and inflammation on renin-angiotensin system mediate mitochondrial dysfunction and phenotypic changes in cardiomyopathies.

PubMed

Burks, Tyesha N; Marx, Ruth; Powell, Laura; Rucker, Jasma; Bedja, Djahida; Heacock, Elisa; Smith, Barbara J; Foster, D Brian; Kass, David; O'Rourke, Brian; Walston, Jeremy D; Abadir, Peter M

2015-05-20

Although the effects of aging and inflammation on the health of the cardiac muscle are well documented, the combined effects of aging and chronic inflammation on cardiac muscle are largely unknown. The renin-angiotensin system (RAS) has been linked independently to both aging and inflammation, but is understudied in the context of their collective effect. Thus, we investigated localized cardiac angiotensin II type I and type II receptors (AT(1)R, AT(2)R), downstream effectors, and phenotypic outcomes using mouse models of the combination of aging and inflammation and compared it to a model of aging and a model of inflammation. We show molecular distinction in the combined effect of aging and inflammation as compared to each independently. The combination maintained an increased AT(1)R:AT(2)R and expression of Nox2 and exhibited the lowest activity of antioxidants. Despite signaling pathway differences, the combined effect shared phenotypic similarities with aging including oxidative damage, fibrosis, and hypertrophy. These phenotypic similarities have dubbed inflammatory conditions as premature aging, but they are, in fact, molecularly distinct. Moreover, treatment with an AT(1)R blocker, losartan, selectively reversed the signaling changes and ameliorated adverse phenotypic effects in the combination of aging and inflammation as well as each independently.

Combined effects of aging and inflammation on renin-angiotensin system mediate mitochondrial dysfunction and phenotypic changes in cardiomyopathies

PubMed Central

Burks, Tyesha N.; Marx, Ruth; Powell, Laura; Rucker, Jasma; Bedja, Djahida; Heacock, Elisa; Smith, Barbara J.; Foster, D. Brian; Kass, David; O'Rourke, Brian; Walston, Jeremy D.; Abadir, Peter M.

2015-01-01

Although the effects of aging and inflammation on the health of the cardiac muscle are well documented, the combined effects of aging and chronic inflammation on cardiac muscle are largely unknown. The renin-angiotensin system (RAS) has been linked independently to both aging and inflammation, but is understudied in the context of their collective effect. Thus, we investigated localized cardiac angiotensin II type I and type II receptors (AT1R, AT2R), downstream effectors, and phenotypic outcomes using mouse models of the combination of aging and inflammation and compared it to a model of aging and a model of inflammation. We show molecular distinction in the combined effect of aging and inflammation as compared to each independently. The combination maintained an increased AT1R:AT2R and expression of Nox2 and exhibited the lowest activity of antioxidants. Despite signaling pathway differences, the combined effect shared phenotypic similarities with aging including oxidative damage, fibrosis, and hypertrophy. These phenotypic similarities have dubbed inflammatory conditions as premature aging, but they are, in fact, molecularly distinct. Moreover, treatment with an AT1R blocker, losartan, selectively reversed the signaling changes and ameliorated adverse phenotypic effects in the combination of aging and inflammation as well as each independently. PMID:26221650

Evaluation of methodology for detecting/predicting migration of forest species

Treesearch

Dale S. Solomon; William B. Leak

1996-01-01

Available methods for analyzing migration of forest species are evaluated, including simulation models, remeasured plots, resurveys, pollen/vegetation analysis, and age/distance trends. Simulation models have provided some of the most drastic estimates of species changes due to predicted changes in global climate. However, these models require additional testing...

Three Variations in Rabbit Angiographic Stroke Models

PubMed Central

Culp, William C.; Woods, Sean D.; Brown, Aliza T.; Lowery, John D.; Hennings, Leah J.; Skinner, Robert D.; Borrelli, Michael J.; Roberson, Paula K.

2012-01-01

Purpose To develop angiographic models of embolic stroke in the rabbit using pre-formed clot or microspheres to model clinical situations ranging from transient ischemic events to severe ischemic stroke. Materials and Methods New Zealand White rabbits (N=151) received angiographic access to the internal carotid artery (ICA) from a femoral approach. Variations of emboli type and quantity of emboli were tested by injection into the ICA. These included fresh clots (1.0-mm length, 3–6 h), larger aged clots (4.0-mm length, 3 days), and 2 or 3 insoluble microspheres (700–900 μm). Neurological assessment scores (NAS) were based on motor, sensory, balance, and reflex measures. Rabbits were euthanized at 4, 7, or 24 hours after embolization, and infarct volume was measured as a percent of total brain volume using 2,3,5-triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC). Results Infarct volume percent at 24 hours after stroke was lower for rabbits embolized with fresh clot (0.45% ± 0.14%), compared with aged clot (3.52% ± 1.31%) and insoluble microspheres (3.39% ± 1.04%). Overall NAS (including posterior vessel occlusions) were positively correlated to infarct volume percent measurements in the fresh clot (r=0.50), aged clot (r=0.65) and microsphere (r=0.62) models (p<0.001). Conclusion The three basic angiographic stroke models may be similar to human transient ischemic attacks (TIA) (fresh clot), major strokes that can be thrombolysed (aged clot), or major strokes with insoluble emboli such as atheromata (microspheres). Model selection can be tailored to specific research needs. PMID:23142182

Successful aging in Spanish older adults: the role of psychosocial resources.

PubMed

Dumitrache, Cristina G; Rubio, Laura; Cordón-Pozo, Eulogio

2018-05-25

ABSTRACTBackground:Psychological and social resources such as extraversion, optimism, social support, or social networks contribute to adaptation and to successful aging. Building on assumptions derived from successful aging and from the developmental adaptation models, this study aims to analyze the joint impact of different psychosocial resources, such as personality, social relations, health, and socio-demographic characteristics on life satisfaction in a group of people aged 65 years-old and older from Spain. A cross-sectional survey using non-proportional quota sampling was carried out. The sample comprised 406 community-dwelling older adults (M = 74.88, SD = 6.75). In order to collect the data, face-to-face interviews were individually conducted. A structural equation model (SEM) was carried out using the PLS software. The results of the SEM model showed that, within this sample, psychosocial variables explain 47.4% of the variance in life satisfaction. Social relations and personality, specifically optimism, were strongly related with life satisfaction, while health status and socio-demographic characteristics were modestly associated with life satisfaction. Findings support the view that psychosocial resources are important for successful aging and therefore should be included in successful aging models. Furthermore, interventions aimed at fostering successful aging should take into account the role of psychosocial variables.

Evaluation of an aged care nurse practitioner service: quality of care within a residential aged care facility hospital avoidance service.

PubMed

Dwyer, Trudy; Craswell, Alison; Rossi, Dolene; Holzberger, Darren

2017-01-13

Reducing avoidable hospitialisation of aged care facility (ACF) residents can improve the resident experience and their health outcomes. Consequently many variations of hospital avoidance (HA) programs continue to evolve. Nurse practitioners (NP) with expertise in aged care have the potential to make a unique contribution to hospital avoidance programs. However, little attention has been dedicated to service evaluation of this model and the quality of care provided. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the quality of an aged care NP model of care situated within a HA service in a regional area of Australia. Donabedian's structure, process and outcome framework was applied to evaluate the quality of the NP model of care. The Australian Nurse Practitioner Study standardised interview schedules for evaluating NP models of care guided the semi-structured interviews of nine health professionals (including ACF nurses, medical doctors and allied health professionals), four ACF residents and their families and two NPs. Theory driven coding consistent with the Donabedian framework guided analysis of interview data and presentation of findings. Structural dimensions identified included the 'in-reach' nature of the HA service, distance, limitations of professional regulation and the residential care model. These dimensions influenced the process of referring the resident to the NP, the NPs timely response and interactions with other professionals. The processes where the NPs take time connecting with residents, initiating collaborative care plans, up-skilling aged care staff and function as intra and interprofessional boundary spanners all contributed to quality outcomes. Quality outcomes in this study were about timely intervention, HA, timely return home, partnering with residents and family (knowing what they want) and resident and health professional satisfaction. This study provides valuable insights into the contribution of the NP model of care within an aged care, HA service and how staff manipulated the process dimensions to improve referral to the NPs. NP service in this study was dynamic, flexible and responsive to both patient and organisational demands.

The etiologic role of genetic and environmental factors in criminal behavior as determined from full- and half-sibling pairs: an evaluation of the validity of the twin method.

PubMed

Kendler, K S; Lönn, S L; Maes, H H; Sundquist, J; Sundquist, K

2015-07-01

Twin studies have shown that criminal behavior (CB) is influenced by both genetic and shared environmental factors. Could these results be replicated using full-siblings and half-siblings? In 911 009 full-siblings reared together (FSRT), 41 872 half-siblings reared together (HSRT) and 52 590 half-siblings reared apart (HSRA), CB was assessed from the Swedish Crime Register. Modeling, including testing for age differences and rearing status, was performed using the OpenMx package. Five sibling models were fitted examining FSRT and HSRT 0-2 years different in age, and both FSRT and HSRT, and FSRT, HSRT and HSRA 0-10 years different in age with and without a specified shared environment indexing age differences. Heritability estimates for CB ranged from 33 to 55% in females and 39 to 56% in males, similar to those found in our prior twin study on the same population. Estimates for the shared environment varied from 1 to 14% in females and 10 to 23% in males, lower than those estimated in the twin study. The specified shared environment indexed by sibling age differences was significant in all models tested. Heritability estimates for CB from full- and half-siblings closely approximated those found from twins in the same population, validating the twin method. Shared environmental estimates were lower, suggesting the presence of shared environmental factors for CB specific to twins. When rearing status can be assessed, full- and half-siblings offer an additional method for assessing the role of genetic and environmental factors in complex disorders. However, age differences in siblings may need to be included in the models.

Aging and neurodegeneration: Importance of quantifying thermoregulatory stability in a rodent model of aging

EPA Science Inventory

Over our lives, we are exposed to a multitude of insults including heat and cold stress, toxicants, radiation, drugs, oxidative stress, and many others. The cumulative impact of these insults may ultimately be responsible for the etiology of many diseases. Since all life processe...

Mobile Computer Anxiety

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rice, Patricia Brisotti

2012-01-01

As the basis of a society undergoes a fundamental change, such as progression from the industrial age to the knowledge/information age, the massive change affects every aspect of life. Change causes stress in individuals that often manifest itself as anxiety. Using an economic model of the endogenous growth, which includes technology as input,…

Human cognition and mobility in aging: a model for berry fruit interventions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in motor function in aging, in both animals and humans, include decrements in balance, strength, and coordination, even in the absence of specific movement disorders such as Parkinson’s disease. In humans, these alterations can increase fall risk, often leading to injury and premature nursin...

Different macaque models of cognitive aging exhibit task-dependent behavioral disparities.

PubMed

Comrie, Alison E; Gray, Daniel T; Smith, Anne C; Barnes, Carol A

2018-05-15

Deficits in cognitive functions that rely on the integrity of the frontal and temporal lobes are characteristic of normative human aging. Due to similar aging phenotypes and homologous cortical organization between nonhuman primates and humans, several species of macaque monkeys are used as models to explore brain senescence. These macaque species are typically regarded as equivalent models of cognitive aging, yet no direct comparisons have been made to support this assumption. Here we used adult and aged rhesus and bonnet macaques (Macaca mulatta and Macaca radiata) to characterize the effect of age on acquisition and retention of information across delays in a battery of behavioral tasks that rely on prefrontal cortex and medial temporal lobe networks. The cognitive functions that were tested include visuospatial short-term memory, object recognition memory, and object-reward association memory. In general, bonnet macaques at all ages outperformed rhesus macaques on tasks thought to rely primarily on the prefrontal cortex, and were more resilient to age-related deficits in these behaviors. On the other hand, both species were comparably impaired by age on tasks thought to preferentially engage the medial temporal lobe. Together, these results suggest that rhesus and bonnet macaques are not equivalent models of cognitive aging and highlight the value of cross-species comparisons. These observations should enable improved design and interpretation of future experiments aimed at understanding changes in cognition across the lifespan. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of periodontitis screening model using sociodemographic, systemic, and molecular information in a Korean population.

PubMed

Kim, Hyun-Duck; Sukhbaatar, Munkhzaya; Shin, Myungseop; Ahn, Yoo-Been; Yoo, Wook-Sung

2014-12-01

This study aims to evaluate and validate a periodontitis screening model that includes sociodemographic, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and molecular information, including gingival crevicular fluid (GCF), matrix metalloproteinase (MMP), and blood cytokines. The authors selected 506 participants from the Shiwha-Banwol cohort: 322 participants from the 2005 cohort for deriving the screening model and 184 participants from the 2007 cohort for its validation. Periodontitis was assessed by dentists using the community periodontal index. Interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α in blood and MMP-8, -9, and -13 in GCF were assayed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. MetS was assessed by physicians using physical examination and blood laboratory data. Information about age, sex, income, smoking, and drinking was obtained by interview. Logistic regression analysis was applied to finalize the best-fitting model and validate the model using sensitivity, specificity, and c-statistics. The derived model for periodontitis screening had a sensitivity of 0.73, specificity of 0.85, and c-statistic of 0.86 (P <0.001); those of the validated model were 0.64, 0.91, and 0.83 (P <0.001), respectively. The model that included age, sex, income, smoking, drinking, and blood and GCF biomarkers could be useful in screening for periodontitis. A future prospective study is indicated for evaluating this model's ability to predict the occurrence of periodontitis.

Third molar development: measurements versus scores as age predictor.

PubMed

Thevissen, P W; Fieuws, S; Willems, G

2011-10-01

Human third molar development is widely used to predict chronological age of sub adult individuals with unknown or doubted age. For these predictions, classically, the radiologically observed third molar growth and maturation is registered using a staging and related scoring technique. Measures of lengths and widths of the developing wisdom tooth and its adjacent second molar can be considered as an alternative registration. The aim of this study was to verify relations between mandibular third molar developmental stages or measurements of mandibular second molar and third molars and age. Age related performance of stages and measurements were compared to assess if measurements added information to age predictions from third molar formation stage. The sample was 340 orthopantomograms (170 females, 170 males) of individuals homogenously distributed in age between 7 and 24 years. Mandibular lower right, third and second molars, were staged following Gleiser and Hunt, length and width measurements were registered, and various ratios of these measurements were calculated. Univariable regression models with age as response and third molar stage, measurements and ratios of second and third molars as predictors, were considered. Multivariable regression models assessed if measurements or ratios added information to age prediction from third molar stage. Coefficients of determination (R(2)) and root mean squared errors (RMSE) obtained from all regression models were compared. The univariable regression model using stages as predictor yielded most accurate age predictions (males: R(2) 0.85, RMSE between 0.85 and 1.22 year; females: R(2) 0.77, RMSE between 1.19 and 2.11 year) compared to all models including measurements and ratios. The multivariable regression models indicated that measurements and ratios added no clinical relevant information to the age prediction from third molar stage. Ratios and measurements of second and third molars are less accurate age predictors than stages of developing third molars. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unresolved versus resolved: testing the validity of young simple stellar population models with VLT/MUSE observations of NGC 3603

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuncarayakti, H.; Galbany, L.; Anderson, J. P.; Krühler, T.; Hamuy, M.

2016-09-01

Context. Stellar populations are the building blocks of galaxies, including the Milky Way. The majority, if not all, extragalactic studies are entangled with the use of stellar population models given the unresolved nature of their observation. Extragalactic systems contain multiple stellar populations with complex star formation histories. However, studies of these systems are mainly based upon the principles of simple stellar populations (SSP). Hence, it is critical to examine the validity of SSP models. Aims: This work aims to empirically test the validity of SSP models. This is done by comparing SSP models against observations of spatially resolved young stellar population in the determination of its physical properties, that is, age and metallicity. Methods: Integral field spectroscopy of a young stellar cluster in the Milky Way, NGC 3603, was used to study the properties of the cluster as both a resolved and unresolved stellar population. The unresolved stellar population was analysed using the Hα equivalent width as an age indicator and the ratio of strong emission lines to infer metallicity. In addition, spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting using STARLIGHT was used to infer these properties from the integrated spectrum. Independently, the resolved stellar population was analysed using the colour-magnitude diagram (CMD) to determine age and metallicity. As the SSP model represents the unresolved stellar population, the derived age and metallicity were tested to determine whether they agree with those derived from resolved stars. Results: The age and metallicity estimate of NGC 3603 derived from integrated spectroscopy are confirmed to be within the range of those derived from the CMD of the resolved stellar population, including other estimates found in the literature. The result from this pilot study supports the reliability of SSP models for studying unresolved young stellar populations. Based on observations collected at the European Organisation for Astronomical Research in the Southern Hemisphere under ESO programme 60.A-9344.

The use of urinary proteomics in the assessment of suitability of mouse models for ageing.

PubMed

Nkuipou-Kenfack, Esther; Schanstra, Joost P; Bajwa, Seerat; Pejchinovski, Martin; Vinel, Claire; Dray, Cédric; Valet, Philippe; Bascands, Jean-Loup; Vlahou, Antonia; Koeck, Thomas; Borries, Melanie; Busch, Hauke; Bechtel-Walz, Wibke; Huber, Tobias B; Rudolph, Karl L; Pich, Andreas; Mischak, Harald; Zürbig, Petra

2017-01-01

Ageing is a complex process characterised by a systemic and progressive deterioration of biological functions. As ageing is associated with an increased prevalence of age-related chronic disorders, understanding its underlying molecular mechanisms can pave the way for therapeutic interventions and managing complications. Animal models such as mice are commonly used in ageing research as they have a shorter lifespan in comparison to humans and are also genetically close to humans. To assess the translatability of mouse ageing to human ageing, the urinary proteome in 89 wild-type (C57BL/6) mice aged between 8-96 weeks was investigated using capillary electrophoresis coupled to mass spectrometry (CE-MS). Using age as a continuous variable, 295 peptides significantly correlated with age in mice were identified. To investigate the relevance of using mouse models in human ageing studies, a comparison was performed with a previous correlation analysis using 1227 healthy subjects. In mice and humans, a decrease in urinary excretion of fibrillar collagens and an increase of uromodulin fragments was observed with advanced age. Of the 295 peptides correlating with age, 49 had a strong homology to the respective human age-related peptides. These ortholog peptides including several collagen (N = 44) and uromodulin (N = 5) fragments were used to generate an ageing classifier that was able to discriminate the age among both wild-type mice and healthy subjects. Additionally, the ageing classifier depicted that telomerase knock-out mice were older than their chronological age. Hence, with a focus on ortholog urinary peptides mouse ageing can be translated to human ageing.

Quantifying the effect of mixing on the mean age of air in CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietmüller, Simone; Eichinger, Roland; Garny, Hella; Birner, Thomas; Boenisch, Harald; Pitari, Giovanni; Mancini, Eva; Visioni, Daniele; Stenke, Andrea; Revell, Laura; Rozanov, Eugene; Plummer, David A.; Scinocca, John; Jöckel, Patrick; Oman, Luke; Deushi, Makoto; Kiyotaka, Shibata; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Garcia, Rolando; Morgenstern, Olaf; Zeng, Guang; Stone, Kane Adam; Schofield, Robyn

2018-05-01

The stratospheric age of air (AoA) is a useful measure of the overall capabilities of a general circulation model (GCM) to simulate stratospheric transport. Previous studies have reported a large spread in the simulation of AoA by GCMs and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Compared to observational estimates, simulated AoA is mostly too low. Here we attempt to untangle the processes that lead to the AoA differences between the models and between models and observations. AoA is influenced by both mean transport by the residual circulation and two-way mixing; we quantify the effects of these processes using data from the CCM inter-comparison projects CCMVal-2 (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity 2) and CCMI-1 (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, phase 1). Transport along the residual circulation is measured by the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). We interpret the difference between AoA and RCTT as additional aging by mixing. Aging by mixing thus includes mixing on both the resolved and subgrid scale. We find that the spread in AoA between the models is primarily caused by differences in the effects of mixing and only to some extent by differences in residual circulation strength. These effects are quantified by the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative increase in AoA by mixing. The mixing efficiency varies strongly between the models from 0.24 to 1.02. We show that the mixing efficiency is not only controlled by horizontal mixing, but by vertical mixing and vertical diffusion as well. Possible causes for the differences in the models' mixing efficiencies are discussed. Differences in subgrid-scale mixing (including differences in advection schemes and model resolutions) likely contribute to the differences in mixing efficiency. However, differences in the relative contribution of resolved versus parameterized wave forcing do not appear to be related to differences in mixing efficiency or AoA.

Age-Related Effects of Alcohol from Adolescent, Adult, and Aged Populations Using Human and Animal Models

PubMed Central

Squeglia, Lindsay M.; Boissoneault, Jeff; Van Skike, Candice E.; Nixon, Sara Jo; Matthews, Douglas B.

2014-01-01

Background This review incorporates current research examining alcohol's differential effects on adolescents, adults, and aged populations in both animal and clinical models. Methods The studies presented range from cognitive, behavioral, molecular, and neuroimaging techniques, leading to a more comprehensive understanding of how acute and chronic alcohol use affects the brain throughout the life span. Results Age of life is a significant factor in determining the effect of alcohol on brain functioning. Adolescents and aged populations may be more negatively affected by heavy alcohol use when compared to adults. Conclusions Investigations limiting alcohol effects to a single age group constrains understanding of differential trajectories and outcomes following acute and chronic use. To meaningfully address the sequencing and interaction effects of alcohol and age, the field must incorporate collaborative and integrated research efforts focused on interdisciplinary questions facilitated by engaging basic and applied scientists with expertise in a range of disciplines including alcohol, neurodevelopment, and aging. PMID:25156779

Plasma Carotenoids, Tocopherols, and Retinol in the Age-Stratified (35–74 Years) General Population: A Cross-Sectional Study in Six European Countries

PubMed Central

Stuetz, Wolfgang; Weber, Daniela; Dollé, Martijn E. T.; Jansen, Eugène; Grubeck-Loebenstein, Beatrix; Fiegl, Simone; Toussaint, Olivier; Bernhardt, Juergen; Gonos, Efstathios S.; Franceschi, Claudio; Sikora, Ewa; Moreno-Villanueva, María; Breusing, Nicolle; Grune, Tilman; Bürkle, Alexander

2016-01-01

Blood micronutrient status may change with age. We analyzed plasma carotenoids, α-/γ-tocopherol, and retinol and their associations with age, demographic characteristics, and dietary habits (assessed by a short food frequency questionnaire) in a cross-sectional study of 2118 women and men (age-stratified from 35 to 74 years) of the general population from six European countries. Higher age was associated with lower lycopene and α-/β-carotene and higher β-cryptoxanthin, lutein, zeaxanthin, α-/γ-tocopherol, and retinol levels. Significant correlations with age were observed for lycopene (r = −0.248), α-tocopherol (r = 0.208), α-carotene (r = −0.112), and β-cryptoxanthin (r = 0.125; all p < 0.001). Age was inversely associated with lycopene (−6.5% per five-year age increase) and this association remained in the multiple regression model with the significant predictors (covariables) being country, season, cholesterol, gender, smoking status, body mass index (BMI (kg/m2)), and dietary habits. The positive association of α-tocopherol with age remained when all covariates including cholesterol and use of vitamin supplements were included (1.7% vs. 2.4% per five-year age increase). The association of higher β-cryptoxanthin with higher age was no longer statistically significant after adjustment for fruit consumption, whereas the inverse association of α-carotene with age remained in the fully adjusted multivariable model (−4.8% vs. −3.8% per five-year age increase). We conclude from our study that age is an independent predictor of plasma lycopene, α-tocopherol, and α-carotene. PMID:27706032

Systems, methods and computer-readable media to model kinetic performance of rechargeable electrochemical devices

DOEpatents

Gering, Kevin L.

2013-01-01

A system includes an electrochemical cell, monitoring hardware, and a computing system. The monitoring hardware samples performance characteristics of the electrochemical cell. The computing system determines cell information from the performance characteristics. The computing system also analyzes the cell information of the electrochemical cell with a Butler-Volmer (BV) expression modified to determine exchange current density of the electrochemical cell by including kinetic performance information related to pulse-time dependence, electrode surface availability, or a combination thereof. A set of sigmoid-based expressions may be included with the modified-BV expression to determine kinetic performance as a function of pulse time. The determined exchange current density may be used with the modified-BV expression, with or without the sigmoid expressions, to analyze other characteristics of the electrochemical cell. Model parameters can be defined in terms of cell aging, making the overall kinetics model amenable to predictive estimates of cell kinetic performance along the aging timeline.

Developmental aspects of a life course approach to healthy ageing

PubMed Central

Cooper, C.; Aihie Sayer, A.; Eendebak, R. J.; Clough, G. F.; Beard, J. R.

2016-01-01

Abstract We examine the mechanistic basis and wider implications of adopting a developmental perspective on human ageing. Previous models of ageing have concentrated on its genetic basis, or the detrimental effects of accumulated damage, but also have raised issues about whether ageing can be viewed as adaptive itself, or is a consequence of other adaptive processes, for example if maintenance and repair processes in the period up to reproduction are traded off against later decline in function. A life course model places ageing in the context of the attainment of peak capacity for a body system, starting in early development when plasticity permits changes in structure and function induced by a range of environmental stimuli, followed by a period of decline, the rate of which depends on the peak attained as well as the later life conditions. Such path dependency in the rate of ageing may offer new insights into its modification. Focusing on musculoskeletal and cardiovascular function, we discuss this model and the possible underlying mechanisms, including endothelial function, oxidative stress, stem cells and nutritional factors such as vitamin D status. Epigenetic changes induced during developmental plasticity, and immune function may provide a common mechanistic process underlying a life course model of ageing. The life course trajectory differs in high and low resource settings. New insights into the developmental components of the life course model of ageing may lead to the design of biomarkers of later chronic disease risk and to new interventions to promote healthy ageing, with important implications for public health. PMID:26518329

Developmental aspects of a life course approach to healthy ageing.

PubMed

Hanson, M A; Cooper, C; Aihie Sayer, A; Eendebak, R J; Clough, G F; Beard, J R

2016-04-15

We examine the mechanistic basis and wider implications of adopting a developmental perspective on human ageing. Previous models of ageing have concentrated on its genetic basis, or the detrimental effects of accumulated damage, but also have raised issues about whether ageing can be viewed as adaptive itself, or is a consequence of other adaptive processes, for example if maintenance and repair processes in the period up to reproduction are traded off against later decline in function. A life course model places ageing in the context of the attainment of peak capacity for a body system, starting in early development when plasticity permits changes in structure and function induced by a range of environmental stimuli, followed by a period of decline, the rate of which depends on the peak attained as well as the later life conditions. Such path dependency in the rate of ageing may offer new insights into its modification. Focusing on musculoskeletal and cardiovascular function, we discuss this model and the possible underlying mechanisms, including endothelial function, oxidative stress, stem cells and nutritional factors such as vitamin D status. Epigenetic changes induced during developmental plasticity, and immune function may provide a common mechanistic process underlying a life course model of ageing. The life course trajectory differs in high and low resource settings. New insights into the developmental components of the life course model of ageing may lead to the design of biomarkers of later chronic disease risk and to new interventions to promote healthy ageing, with important implications for public health. © 2015 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2015 The Physiological Society.

Developing a dimensional model for successful cognitive and emotional aging.

PubMed

Vahia, Ipsit V; Thompson, Wesley K; Depp, Colin A; Allison, Matthew; Jeste, Dilip V

2012-04-01

There is currently a lack of consensus on the definition of successful aging (SA) and existing implementations have omitted constructs associated with SA. We used empirical methods to develop a dimensional model of SA that incorporates a wider range of associated variables, and we examined the relationship among these components using factor analysis and Bayesian Belief Nets. We administered a successful aging questionnaire comprising several standardized measures related to SA to a sample of 1948 older women enrolled in the San Diego site of the Women's Health Initiative study. The SA-related variables we included in the model were self-rated successful aging, depression severity, physical and emotional functioning, optimism, resilience, attitude towards own aging, self-efficacy, and cognitive ability. After adjusting for age, education and income, we fitted an exploratory factor analysis model to the SA-related variables and then, in order to address relationships among these factors, we computed a Bayesian Belief Net (BBN) using rotated factor scores. The SA-related variables loaded onto five factors. Based on the loading, we labeled the factors as follows: self-rated successful aging, cognition, psychosocial protective factors, physical functioning, and emotional functioning. In the BBN, self-rated successful aging emerged as the primary downstream factor and exhibited significant partial correlations with psychosocial protective factors, physical/general status and mental/emotional status but not with cognitive ability. Our study represents a step forward in developing a dimensional model of SA. Our findings also point to a potential role for psychiatry in improving successful aging by managing depressive symptoms and developing psychosocial interventions to improve self-efficacy, resilience, and optimism.

A database of paleoceanographic sediment cores from the North Pacific, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borreggine, Marisa; Myhre, Sarah E.; Mislan, K. Allison S.; Deutsch, Curtis; Davis, Catherine V.

2017-09-01

We assessed sediment coring, data acquisition, and publications from the North Pacific (north of 30° N) from 1951 to 2016. There are 2134 sediment cores collected by American, French, Japanese, Russian, and international research vessels across the North Pacific (including the Pacific subarctic gyre, Alaskan gyre, Japan margin, and California margin; 1391 cores), the Sea of Okhotsk (271 cores), the Bering Sea (123 cores), and the Sea of Japan (349 cores) reported here. All existing metadata associated with these sediment cores are documented here, including coring date, location, core number, cruise number, water depth, vessel metadata, and coring technology. North Pacific sediment core age models are built with isotope stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, magnetostratigraphy, biostratigraphy, tephrochronology, % opal, color, and lithological proxies. Here, we evaluate the iterative generation of each published age model and provide comprehensive documentation of the dating techniques used, along with sedimentation rates and age ranges. We categorized cores according to the availability of a variety of proxy evidence, including biological (e.g., benthic and planktonic foraminifera assemblages), geochemical (e.g., major trace element concentrations), isotopic (e.g., bulk sediment nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon isotopes), and stratigraphic (e.g., preserved laminations) proxies. This database is a unique resource to the paleoceanographic and paleoclimate communities and provides cohesive accessibility to sedimentary sequences, age model development, and proxies. The data set is publicly available through PANGAEA at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.875998.

Carotid Artery End-Diastolic Velocity and Future Cerebro-Cardiovascular Events in Asymptomatic High Risk Patients.

PubMed

Chung, Hyemoon; Jung, Young Hak; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Kim, Jong-Youn; Min, Pil-Ki; Yoon, Young Won; Lee, Byoung Kwon; Hong, Bum-Kee; Rim, Se-Joong; Kwon, Hyuck Moon; Choi, Eui-Young

2016-01-01

Prognostic value of additional carotid Doppler evaluations to carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaque has not been completely evaluated. A total of 1119 patients with risk factors for, but without, overt coronary artery disease (CAD), who underwent both carotid ultrasound and Doppler examination were included in the present study. Parameters of interest included peak systolic and end-diastolic velocities, resistive indices of the carotid arteries, IMT, and plaque measurements. The primary end-point was all-cause cerebro-cardiovascular events (CVEs) including acute myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization therapy, heart failure admission, stroke, and cardiovascular death. Model 1 covariates comprised age and sex; Model 2 also included hypertension, diabetes and smoking; Model 3 also had use of aspirin and statin; and Model 4 also included IMT and plaque. The mean follow-up duration was 1386±461 days and the mean age of the study population was 60±12 years. Amongst 1119 participants, 43% were women, 57% had a history of hypertension, and 23% had diabetes. During follow-up, 6.6% of patients experienced CVEs. Among carotid Doppler parameters, average common carotid artery end-diastolic velocity was the independent predictor for future CVEs after adjustments for all models variables (HR 0.95 per cm/s, 95% confident interval 0.91-0.99, p=0.034 in Model 4) and significantly increased the predictive value of Model 4 (global χ(2)=59.0 vs. 62.8, p=0.029). Carotid Doppler measurements in addition to IMT and plaque evaluation are independently associated with future CVEs in asymptomatic patients at risk for CAD.

Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution.

PubMed

Djordjevic, Ivan B

2015-08-24

Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i) Markovian classical model, (ii) Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii) hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage) Markov chain-like models of aging, which are mutually coupled.

Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution

PubMed Central

Djordjevic, Ivan B.

2015-01-01

Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i) Markovian classical model, (ii) Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii) hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage) Markov chain-like models of aging, which are mutually coupled. PMID:26305258

Successful ageing by whose definition? Views of older, spiritually affiliated women.

PubMed

McCann Mortimer, Patricia; Ward, Lynn; Winefield, Helen

2008-12-01

Researchers have pointed to significant omissions in Rowe and Kahn's model of successful ageing and their lack of consultation with older people. This study examined late mid-life and older women's views of successful ageing. In-depth interviews were conducted with 14 women aged 60-89 years. Participants who identified themselves as spiritual and religious, or spiritual only and not religious, were recruited using the 'snowball technique'. Thematic analyses were conducted within an Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis framework. Participants described multiple dimensions of successful ageing with 15 subthemes grouped into three overarching categories of personal agency, social value and quality of life/quality of death. Participants' multidimensional views of successful ageing were broader than Rowe and Kahn's model and included the need to have a degree of autonomy over the place and manner of the last phase of life and final days (successful dying).

A bench-top hyperspectral imaging system to classify beef from Nellore cattle based on tenderness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nubiato, Keni Eduardo Zanoni; Mazon, Madeline Rezende; Antonelo, Daniel Silva; Calkins, Chris R.; Naganathan, Govindarajan Konda; Subbiah, Jeyamkondan; da Luz e Silva, Saulo

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of classification of Nellore beef aged for 0, 7, 14, or 21 days and classification based on tenderness and aging period using a bench-top hyperspectral imaging system. A hyperspectral imaging system (λ = 928-2524 nm) was used to collect hyperspectral images of the Longissimus thoracis et lumborum (aging n = 376 and tenderness n = 345) of Nellore cattle. The image processing steps included selection of region of interest, extraction of spectra, and indentification and evalution of selected wavelengths for classification. Six linear discriminant models were developed to classify samples based on tenderness and aging period. The model using the first derivative of partial absorbance spectra (give wavelength range spectra) was able to classify steaks based on the tenderness with an overall accuracy of 89.8%. The model using the first derivative of full absorbance spectra was able to classify steaks based on aging period with an overall accuracy of 84.8%. The results demonstrate that the HIS may be a viable technology for classifying beef based on tenderness and aging period.

Towards aging mechanisms of cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cable insulation materials in nuclear power plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Shuaishuai; Fifield, Leonard S.; Bowler, Nicola

Cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cable insulation material undergoes simultaneous, accelerated thermal and gamma-radiation aging to simulate the long-term aging environment within nuclear power plants (NPPs). A variety of materials characterization tests, including scanning electron microscopy, thermo-gravimetric analysis, differential scanning calorimetry, oxidation induction time, gel-fraction and dielectric properties measurement, are conducted on pristine and differently aged XLPE samples. A preliminary model of one possible aging mechanism of XLPE cable insulation material under gamma radiation at elevated temperature of 115 °C is suggested.

The Relationship Between Social Support and Subjective Well-Being Across Age

PubMed Central

Salthouse, Timothy A.; Oishi, Shigehiro; Jeswani, Sheena

2014-01-01

The relationships among types of social support and different facets of subjective well-being (i.e., life satisfaction, positive affect, and negative affect) were examined in a sample of 1,111 individuals between the ages of 18 and 95. Using structural equation modeling we found that life satisfaction was predicted by enacted and perceived support, positive affect was predicted by family embeddedness and provided support, and negative affect was predicted by perceived support. When personality variables were included in a subsequent model, the influence of the social support variables were generally reduced. Invariance analyses conducted across age groups indicated that there were no substantial differences in predictors of the different types of subjective well-being across age. PMID:25045200

Dose coefficients in pediatric and adult abdominopelvic CT based on 100 patient models.

PubMed

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W Paul; Frush, Donald P; Paulson, Erik K; Samei, Ehsan

2013-12-21

Recent studies have shown the feasibility of estimating patient dose from a CT exam using CTDI(vol)-normalized-organ dose (denoted as h), DLP-normalized-effective dose (denoted as k), and DLP-normalized-risk index (denoted as q). However, previous studies were limited to a small number of phantom models. The purpose of this work was to provide dose coefficients (h, k, and q) across a large number of computational models covering a broad range of patient anatomy, age, size percentile, and gender. The study consisted of 100 patient computer models (age range, 0 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 2-180 kg) including 42 pediatric models (age range, 0 to 16 y.o.; weight range, 2-80 kg) and 58 adult models (age range, 18 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 57-180 kg). Multi-detector array CT scanners from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare) were included. A previously-validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate organ dose for each patient model and each scanner, from which h, k, and q were derived. The relationships between h, k, and q and patient characteristics (size, age, and gender) were ascertained. The differences in conversion coefficients across the scanners were further characterized. CTDI(vol)-normalized-organ dose (h) showed an exponential decrease with increasing patient size. For organs within the image coverage, the average differences of h across scanners were less than 15%. That value increased to 29% for organs on the periphery or outside the image coverage, and to 8% for distributed organs, respectively. The DLP-normalized-effective dose (k) decreased exponentially with increasing patient size. For a given gender, the DLP-normalized-risk index (q) showed an exponential decrease with both increasing patient size and patient age. The average differences in k and q across scanners were 8% and 10%, respectively. This study demonstrated that the knowledge of patient information and CTDIvol/DLP values may be used to estimate organ dose, effective dose, and risk index in abdominopelvic CT based on the coefficients derived from a large population of pediatric and adult patients.

Dose coefficients in pediatric and adult abdominopelvic CT based on 100 patient models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W. Paul; Frush, Donald P.; Paulson, Erik K.; Samei, Ehsan

2013-12-01

Recent studies have shown the feasibility of estimating patient dose from a CT exam using CTDIvol-normalized-organ dose (denoted as h), DLP-normalized-effective dose (denoted as k), and DLP-normalized-risk index (denoted as q). However, previous studies were limited to a small number of phantom models. The purpose of this work was to provide dose coefficients (h, k, and q) across a large number of computational models covering a broad range of patient anatomy, age, size percentile, and gender. The study consisted of 100 patient computer models (age range, 0 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 2-180 kg) including 42 pediatric models (age range, 0 to 16 y.o.; weight range, 2-80 kg) and 58 adult models (age range, 18 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 57-180 kg). Multi-detector array CT scanners from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare) were included. A previously-validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate organ dose for each patient model and each scanner, from which h, k, and q were derived. The relationships between h, k, and q and patient characteristics (size, age, and gender) were ascertained. The differences in conversion coefficients across the scanners were further characterized. CTDIvol-normalized-organ dose (h) showed an exponential decrease with increasing patient size. For organs within the image coverage, the average differences of h across scanners were less than 15%. That value increased to 29% for organs on the periphery or outside the image coverage, and to 8% for distributed organs, respectively. The DLP-normalized-effective dose (k) decreased exponentially with increasing patient size. For a given gender, the DLP-normalized-risk index (q) showed an exponential decrease with both increasing patient size and patient age. The average differences in k and q across scanners were 8% and 10%, respectively. This study demonstrated that the knowledge of patient information and CTDIvol/DLP values may be used to estimate organ dose, effective dose, and risk index in abdominopelvic CT based on the coefficients derived from a large population of pediatric and adult patients.

Perceived Discrimination and Heavy Episodic Drinking among African American Youth: Differences by Age and Reason for Discrimination

PubMed Central

Jackson, Kristina; Wang, Heng; Miles, Thomas T.; Mather, Frances; Shankar, Arti

2015-01-01

Purpose To examine whether associations between perceived discrimination and heavy episodic drinking (HED) varies by age and by discrimination type (e.g., racial, age, physical appearance) among African American youth. Methods National data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition to Adulthood Study were analyzed. Youth participated in up to four interviews (2005, 2007, 2009, 2011; n=657) between ages 18–25. Respondents reported past-year engagement in HED (4 or more drinks for females, 5 or more drinks for males), and frequency of discriminatory acts experienced (e.g., receiving poor service, being treated with less courtesy). Categorical latent growth curve models, including perceived discrimination types (racial, age, and physical appearance) as a time-varying predictors of HED, were run in MPlus. Controls for gender, birth cohort, living arrangement in adolescence, familial wealth, parental alcohol use, and college attendance were explored. Results The average HED trajectory was curvilinear (increasing followed by flattening), while perceived discrimination remained flat with age. In models including controls, odds of HED were significantly higher than average around ages 20–21 with greater frequency of perceived racial discrimination; associations were not significant at other ages. Discrimination attributed to age or physical appearance was not associated with HED at any age. Conclusions Perceived racial discrimination may be a particularly salient risk factor for HED around the ages of transition to legal access to alcohol among African American youth. Interventions to reduce discrimination or its impact could be targeted before this transition to ameliorate the negative outcomes associated with HED. PMID:26499858

Empirical Modeling of Plant Gas Fluxes in Controlled Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornett, Jessie David

1994-01-01

As humans extend their reach beyond the earth, bioregenerative life support systems must replace the resupply and physical/chemical systems now used. The Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) will utilize plants to recycle the carbon dioxide (CO2) and excrement produced by humans and return oxygen (O2), purified water and food. CELSS design requires knowledge of gas flux levels for net photosynthesis (PS(sub n)), dark respiration (R(sub d)) and evapotranspiration (ET). Full season gas flux data regarding these processes for wheat (Triticum aestivum), soybean (Glycine max) and rice (Oryza sativa) from published sources were used to develop empirical models. Univariate models relating crop age (days after planting) and gas flux were fit by simple regression. Models are either high order (5th to 8th) or more complex polynomials whose curves describe crop development characteristics. The models provide good estimates of gas flux maxima, but are of limited utility. To broaden the applicability, data were transformed to dimensionless or correlation formats and, again, fit by regression. Polynomials, similar to those in the initial effort, were selected as the most appropriate models. These models indicate that, within a cultivar, gas flux patterns appear remarkably similar prior to maximum flux, but exhibit considerable variation beyond this point. This suggests that more broadly applicable models of plant gas flux are feasible, but univariate models defining gas flux as a function of crop age are too simplistic. Multivariate models using CO2 and crop age were fit for PS(sub n), and R(sub d) by multiple regression. In each case, the selected model is a subset of a full third order model with all possible interactions. These models are improvements over the univariate models because they incorporate more than the single factor, crop age, as the primary variable governing gas flux. They are still limited, however, by their reliance on the other environmental conditions under which the original data were collected. Three-dimensional plots representing the response surface of each model are included. Suitability of using empirical models to generate engineering design estimates is discussed. Recommendations for the use of more complex multivariate models to increase versatility are included.

Adaptive model of the aging emmetropic eye and its changes with accommodation.

PubMed

Navarro, Rafael

2014-11-20

A general schematic model of the optical system of the emmetropic human eye is proposed, capable of adapting to changes with age and accommodation through adjustment of the optical surfaces and the internal gradient index structure of the lens. The specific models of the cornea and lens consist of minor generalizations of previous work by assuming them to be the sum of a biconic plus three higher order Zernike modes. The internal gradient index distribution adapts to the external shape so that the analytical expression is invariant with the changes with age and accommodation. The model also includes tips, tilts, and decentrations of the surfaces according to experimental findings. The specific parameters of these models are either constants or functions of age and/or accommodation. The model is polychromatic, and its optical performance was evaluated along the keratometric axis. Chromatic aberrations (longitudinal and transverse), astigmatism, coma, trefoil, and spherical aberration show good agreement with experimental averages. The change of these aberrations as a function of age or accommodation is also consistent with experimental findings (except for trefoil in eyes older than 50 years). This means that the average structure seems to predict the average performance. Nevertheless, the present model is too schematic to account for other higher order aberrations, such as tetrafoil, also present in real eyes. © 2014 ARVO.

Genetic evaluation and selection response for growth in meat-type quail through random regression models using B-spline functions and Legendre polynomials.

PubMed

Mota, L F M; Martins, P G M A; Littiere, T O; Abreu, L R A; Silva, M A; Bonafé, C M

2018-04-01

The objective was to estimate (co)variance functions using random regression models (RRM) with Legendre polynomials, B-spline function and multi-trait models aimed at evaluating genetic parameters of growth traits in meat-type quail. A database containing the complete pedigree information of 7000 meat-type quail was utilized. The models included the fixed effects of contemporary group and generation. Direct additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, considered as random, were modeled using B-spline functions considering quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment, and Legendre polynomials for age. Residual variances were grouped in four age classes. Direct additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled using 2 to 4 segments and were modeled by Legendre polynomial with orders of fit ranging from 2 to 4. The model with quadratic B-spline adjustment, using four segments for direct additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, was the most appropriate and parsimonious to describe the covariance structure of the data. The RRM using Legendre polynomials presented an underestimation of the residual variance. Lesser heritability estimates were observed for multi-trait models in comparison with RRM for the evaluated ages. In general, the genetic correlations between measures of BW from hatching to 35 days of age decreased as the range between the evaluated ages increased. Genetic trend for BW was positive and significant along the selection generations. The genetic response to selection for BW in the evaluated ages presented greater values for RRM compared with multi-trait models. In summary, RRM using B-spline functions with four residual variance classes and segments were the best fit for genetic evaluation of growth traits in meat-type quail. In conclusion, RRM should be considered in genetic evaluation of breeding programs.

Substance Use and Cognitive Function as Drivers of Condomless Anal Sex Among HIV-Positive Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men Aged 50 and Older: The Gold Studies.

PubMed

Kupprat, Sandra A; Krause, Kristen D; Ompad, Danielle C; Halkitis, Perry N

2017-12-01

Substance use has been linked to the sexual transmission of HIV among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) across the lifespan. Among older, HIV-positive, MSM populations, cognitive dysfunction associated with age and HIV disease progression also may play a role in sexual risk-taking. People aged 50 years and older represent a growing proportion of the overall HIV-positive population. This study aimed to explore relationships between substance use and cognitive function, and their impact on condomless anal sex (CAS) among HIV-positive gay, bisexual, and other MSM aged 50 years and older. Data from a cross-sectional study of HIV-positive MSM, aged 50 and older (N = 169) were gathered using a computer-assisted survey, researcher-administered behavioral and neurocognitive measures. More than 50% of the men used substances and had one or more cognitive impairments. However, only 25% were at higher risk for dementia (i.e., two or more cognitive impairments). Multivariable modeling indicated that use of alcohol to intoxication and date of HIV diagnosis were the strongest predictors of CAS in both a model that included dementia risk and a model that included impaired executive function risk. Current illicit substance use was a significant predictor of CAS only in the model that included dementia risk. Those with better cognitive and executive function had higher odds of CAS. However, only executive function was a significant cognitive predictor of CAS. Further research is needed to clarify the impact of cognitive function and substance use on sexual risk behaviors as these HIV-positive men achieve normal life expectancies, while continuing to use substances and engage in CAS. Furthermore, addiction treatment remains a critical need for this group even as they transition into later adulthood.

Effect of Antioxidants Supplementation on Aging and Longevity

PubMed Central

Bartosz, Grzegorz

2014-01-01

If aging is due to or contributed by free radical reactions, as postulated by the free radical theory of aging, lifespan of organisms should be extended by administration of exogenous antioxidants. This paper reviews data on model organisms concerning the effects of exogenous antioxidants (antioxidant vitamins, lipoic acid, coenzyme Q, melatonin, resveratrol, curcumin, other polyphenols, and synthetic antioxidants including antioxidant nanoparticles) on the lifespan of model organisms. Mechanisms of effects of antioxidants, often due to indirect antioxidant action or to action not related to the antioxidant properties of the compounds administered, are discussed. The legitimacy of antioxidant supplementation in human is considered. PMID:24783202

Purified aged garlic extract modulates allergic airway inflammation in BALB/c mice.

PubMed

Zare, Ahad; Farzaneh, Parvaneh; Pourpak, Zahra; Zahedi, Fatemeh; Moin, Mostafa; Shahabi, Shahram; Hassan, Zuhair M

2008-09-01

Garlic is known as a potent spice and a medicinal herb with broad therapeutic properties ranging from antibacterial to anticancer and anticoagulant. Our previous studies have shown some immunoregulatory effects for aged garlic extract, suggesting a key role for 14-kD glycoprotein of garlic in shifting the cytokine pattern to T helper-1. In present study, we investigated the effect of 1, 2, and 3 times intraperitoneal injections of aged garlic extract on an established allergic airway inflammation in murine model (BALB/c mice). The garlic extract, isolated by biochemical method, includes proteins precipitation by ammonium sulfate. After injection of the aged garlic extract, IFN-, anti allergen specific IgE and IgG1 were measured in lavage and serum by ELISA and histological assessment was performed on the lung tissues. The results indicated that three-time intra peritoneal injections of the aged garlic extract caused a significant decrease in the hallmark criteria of allergic airway inflammation levels which included eosinophil percentage in lavage, peribronchial lung eosinophils, IgG1 level in lavage and serum, mucous producing goblet cells grade and peribronchial and perivascular inflammation. Our findings in the present research suggested that aged garlic extract has the potential of attenuation of inflammatory features of allergic airway inflammation in murine model.

US/UK second level panel discussions on the health and value of: Ageing and lifetime predictions (u)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castro, Richard G

2011-01-18

Many healthy physics, engineering, and materials exchanges are being accomplished in ageing and lifetime prediction that directly supports US and UK Stockpile Management Programs. Lifetime assessment studies of silicon foams under compression - Joint AWE/LANLlLLNL study of compression set in stress cushions completed. Provides phenomenological prediction out to 50 years. Polymer volatile out-gassing studies - New exchange on the out-gassing of Ethylene Vinyl Acetate (EVA) using isotopic {sup 13}C labeling studies to interrogate mechanistic processes. Infra-red (IR) gas cell analytical capabilities developed by AWE will be used to monitor polymer out-gassing profiles. Pu Strength ageing Experiments and Constitutive Modeling -more » In recently compared modeling strategies for ageing effects on Pu yield strength at high strain rates, a US/UK consensus was reached on the general principle that the ageing effect is additive and not multiplicative. The fundamental mechanisms for age-strengthening in Pu remains unknown. Pu Surface and Interface Reactions - (1) US/UK secondment resulted in developing a metal-metal oxide model for radiation damaged studies consistent with a Modified Embedded Atom Method (MEAM) potential; and (2) Joint US/UK collaboration to study the role of impurities in hydride initiation. Detonator Ageing (wide range of activities) - (1) Long-term ageing study with field trials at Pantex incorporating materials from LANL, LLNL, SNL and AWE; (2) Characterization of PETN growth to detonation process; (3) Detonator performance modeling; and (4) Performance fault tree analysis. Benefits are a unified approach to lifetime prediction that Includes: materials characterization and the development of ageing models through improved understanding of the relationship between materials properties, ageing properties and detonator performance.« less

Self-Regulation and Recall: Growth Curve Modeling of Intervention Outcomes for Older Adults

PubMed Central

West, Robin L.; Hastings, Erin C.

2013-01-01

Memory training has often been supported as a potential means to improve performance for older adults. Less often studied are the characteristics of trainees that benefit most from training. Using a self-regulatory perspective, the current project examined a latent growth curve model to predict training-related gains for middle-aged and older adult trainees from individual differences (e.g., education), information processing skills (strategy use) and self-regulatory factors such as self-efficacy, control, and active engagement in training. For name recall, a model including strategy usage and strategy change as predictors of memory gain, along with self-efficacy and self-efficacy change, showed comparable fit to a more parsimonious model including only self-efficacy variables as predictors. The best fit to the text recall data was a model focusing on self-efficacy change as the main predictor of memory change, and that model showed significantly better fit than a model also including strategy usage variables as predictors. In these models, overall performance was significantly predicted by age and memory self-efficacy, and subsequent training-related gains in performance were best predicted directly by change in self-efficacy (text recall), or indirectly through the impact of active engagement and self-efficacy on gains (name recall). These results underscore the benefits of targeting self-regulatory factors in intervention programs designed to improve memory skills. PMID:21604891

Self-regulation and recall: growth curve modeling of intervention outcomes for older adults.

PubMed

West, Robin L; Hastings, Erin C

2011-12-01

Memory training has often been supported as a potential means to improve performance for older adults. Less often studied are the characteristics of trainees that benefit most from training. Using a self-regulatory perspective, the current project examined a latent growth curve model to predict training-related gains for middle-aged and older adult trainees from individual differences (e.g., education), information processing skills (strategy use) and self-regulatory factors such as self-efficacy, control, and active engagement in training. For name recall, a model including strategy usage and strategy change as predictors of memory gain, along with self-efficacy and self-efficacy change, showed comparable fit to a more parsimonious model including only self-efficacy variables as predictors. The best fit to the text recall data was a model focusing on self-efficacy change as the main predictor of memory change, and that model showed significantly better fit than a model also including strategy usage variables as predictors. In these models, overall performance was significantly predicted by age and memory self-efficacy, and subsequent training-related gains in performance were best predicted directly by change in self-efficacy (text recall), or indirectly through the impact of active engagement and self-efficacy on gains (name recall). These results underscore the benefits of targeting self-regulatory factors in intervention programs designed to improve memory skills.

Model-based clinical dose optimization for phenobarbital in neonates: An illustration of the importance of data sharing and external validation.

PubMed

Völler, Swantje; Flint, Robert B; Stolk, Leo M; Degraeuwe, Pieter L J; Simons, Sinno H P; Pokorna, Paula; Burger, David M; de Groot, Ronald; Tibboel, Dick; Knibbe, Catherijne A J

2017-11-15

Particularly in the pediatric clinical pharmacology field, data-sharing offers the possibility of making the most of all available data. In this study, we utilize previously collected therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) data of term and preterm newborns to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for phenobarbital. We externally validate the model using prospective phenobarbital data from an ongoing pharmacokinetic study in preterm neonates. TDM data from 53 neonates (gestational age (GA): 37 (24-42) weeks, bodyweight: 2.7 (0.45-4.5) kg; postnatal age (PNA): 4.5 (0-22) days) contained information on dosage histories, concentration and covariate data (including birth weight, actual weight, post-natal age (PNA), postmenstrual age, GA, sex, liver and kidney function, APGAR-score). Model development was carried out using NONMEM ® 7.3. After assessment of model fit, the model was validated using data of 17 neonates included in the DINO (Drug dosage Improvement in NeOnates)-study. Modelling of 229 plasma concentrations, ranging from 3.2 to 75.2mg/L, resulted in a one compartment model for phenobarbital. Clearance (CL) and volume (V d ) for a child with a birthweight of 2.6kg at PNA day 4.5 was 0.0091L/h (9%) and 2.38L (5%), respectively. Birthweight and PNA were the best predictors for CL maturation, increasing CL by 36.7% per kg birthweight and 5.3% per postnatal day of living, respectively. The best predictor for the increase in V d was actual bodyweight (0.31L/kg). External validation showed that the model can adequately predict the pharmacokinetics in a prospective study. Data-sharing can help to successfully develop and validate population pharmacokinetic models in neonates. From the results it seems that both PNA and bodyweight are required to guide dosing of phenobarbital in term and preterm neonates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The dynamics of life stressors and depressive symptoms in early adolescence: a test of six theoretical models.

PubMed

Clements, Margaret; Aber, J Lawrence; Seidman, Edward

2008-01-01

Structural equation modeling was used to compare 6 competing theoretically based psychosocial models of the longitudinal association between life stressors and depressive symptoms in a sample of early adolescents (N= 907; 40% Hispanic, 32% Black, and 19% White; mean age at Time 1 = 11.4 years). Only two models fit the data, both of which included paths modeling the effect of depressive symptoms on stressors recall: The mood-congruent cognitive bias model included only depressive symptoms to life stressors paths (DS-->S), whereas the fully transactional model included paths representing both the DS-->S and stressors to depressive symptoms (S-->DS) effects. Social causation models and the stress generation model did not fit the data. Findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for mood-congruent cognitive bias in stressors-depressive symptoms investigations.

Transport Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Timothy M.; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Boering, Kristie A.; Eckman, Richard S.; Lerner, Jean; Plumb, R. Alan; Rind, David H.; Rinsland, Curtis P.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Wei, Chu-Feng

1999-01-01

MM II defined a series of experiments to better understand and characterize model transport and to assess the realism of this transport by comparison to observations. Measurements from aircraft, balloon, and satellite, not yet available at the time of MM I [Prather and Remsberg, 1993], provide new and stringent constraints on model transport, and address the limits of our transport modeling abilities. Simulations of the idealized tracers the age spectrum, and propagating boundary conditions, and conserved HSCT-like emissions probe the relative roles of different model transport mechanisms, while simulations of SF6 and C02 make the connection to observations. Some of the tracers are related, and transport diagnostics such as the mean age can be derived from more than one of the experiments for comparison to observations. The goals of the transport experiments are: (1) To isolate the effects of transport in models from other processes; (2) To assess model transport for realistic tracers (such as SF6 and C02) for comparison to observations; (3) To use certain idealized tracers to isolate model mechanisms and relationships to atmospheric chemical perturbations; (4) To identify strengths and weaknesses of the treatment of transport processes in the models; (5) To relate evaluated shortcomings to aspects of model formulation. The following section are included:Executive Summary, Introduction, Age Spectrum, Observation, Tropical Transport in Models, Global Mean Age in Models, Source-Transport Covariance, HSCT "ANOY" Tracer Distributions, and Summary and Conclusions.

Advanced Maternal Age and the Risk of Low Birth Weight and Preterm Delivery: a Within-Family Analysis Using Finnish Population Registers

PubMed Central

Goisis, Alice; Remes, Hanna; Barclay, Kieron; Martikainen, Pekka; Myrskylä, Mikko

2017-01-01

Abstract Advanced maternal age at birth is considered a major risk factor for birth outcomes. It is unclear to what extent this association is confounded by maternal characteristics. To test whether advanced maternal age at birth independently increases the risk of low birth weight (<2,500 g) and preterm birth (<37 weeks’ gestation), we compared between-family models (children born to different mothers at different ages) with within-family models (children born to the same mother at different ages). The latter procedure reduces confounding by unobserved parental characteristics that are shared by siblings. We used Finnish population registers, including 124,098 children born during 1987–2000. When compared with maternal ages 25–29 years in between-family models, maternal ages of 35–39 years and ≥40 years were associated with percentage increases of 1.1 points (95% confidence intervals: 0.8, 1.4) and 2.2 points (95% confidence intervals: 1.4, 2.9), respectively, in the probability of low birth weight. The associations are similar for the risk of preterm delivery. In within-family models, the relationship between advanced maternal age and low birth weight or preterm birth is statistically and substantively negligible. In Finland, advanced maternal age is not independently associated with the risk of low birth weight or preterm delivery among mothers who have had at least 2 live births. PMID:29206985

Toward a More Comprehensive Concept of Successful Aging: Disability and Care Needs

PubMed Central

Wahl, Hans-Werner

2017-01-01

Abstract Rowe and Kahn’s model of Successful Aging 2.0 argues that changing environmental settings, societal policies, and individual life styles will lead to a significant extension of healthy life years. Recent epidemiological research, however, confirms the dilemma that the ongoing extension of life expectancy prolongs not only the years in good health but also those in poor health. We see it as a major limitation that Rowe and Kahn’s model is not able to cover the emerging linkage between increasing life expectation and aging with disability and care needs. Therefore, we suggest a set of propositions towards a more comprehensive model of successful aging which captures desirable living situations including for those who grow old with disabilities and care needs. We describe individual, environmental, and care related strategies and resources for autonomy and quality of life when facing disabilities and care needs in late life, putting emphasis on inter-individual differences and social inequality. We argue that expanding the traditional concept of successful aging to aging with disabilities and care needs serves not to undermine, but rather to anchor the concept in aging science and in public perception. PMID:27988482

Advanced age negatively impacts survival in an experimental brain tumor model.

PubMed

Ladomersky, Erik; Zhai, Lijie; Gritsina, Galina; Genet, Matthew; Lauing, Kristen L; Wu, Meijing; James, C David; Wainwright, Derek A

2016-09-06

Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common primary malignant brain tumor in adults, with an average age of 64 years at the time of diagnosis. To study GBM, a number of mouse brain tumor models have been utilized. In these animal models, subjects tend to range from 6 to 12 weeks of age, which is analogous to that of a human teenager. Here, we examined the impact of age on host immunity and the gene expression associated with immune evasion in immunocompetent mice engrafted with syngeneic intracranial GL261. The data indicate that, in mice with brain tumors, youth conveys an advantage to survival. While age did not affect the tumor-infiltrating T cell phenotype or quantity, we discovered that old mice express higher levels of the immunoevasion enzyme, IDO1, which was decreased by the presence of brain tumor. Interestingly, other genes associated with promoting immunosuppression including CTLA-4, PD-L1 and FoxP3, were unaffected by age. These data highlight the possibility that IDO1 contributes to faster GBM outgrowth with advanced age, providing rationale for future investigation into immunotherapeutic targeting in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of the fundamental properties of an M31 globular cluster from main-sequence photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jun

2013-02-01

We determined the age of the M31 globular cluster B379 using isochrones of the Padova stellar evolutionary models. At the same time, the cluster's metal abundance, its distance modulus, and reddening value were also obtained. The results obtained in this paper are consistent with previous determinations, including the age. Brown et al. constrained the age of B379 by comparing its color-magnitude diagram with isochrones of the 2006 VandenBerg models. Therefore, this paper confirms the consistency of the age scale of B379 between the Padova isochrones and the 2006 VandenBerg isochrones. The results of B379 obtained in this paper are: metallicity [M/H] = log(Z/Z⊙) = -0.325 dex, age τ = 11.0 +/- 1.5 Gyr, reddening E(B - V) = 0.08 mag, and distance modulus (m - M)0 = 24.44 +/- 0.10 mag. Using the metallicity, the reddening value and the distance modulus obtained in this paper, we constrained the age of B379 by comparing its multicolor photometry with theoretical stellar population synthesis models. The age of B379 obtained is 10.6-0.76 +0.92 Gyr, which is in very good agreement with the determination from main-sequence photometry.

Birth weight, current anthropometric markers, and high sensitivity C-reactive protein in Brazilian school children.

PubMed

Boscaini, Camile; Pellanda, Lucia Campos

2015-01-01

Studies have shown associations of birth weight with increased concentrations of high sensitivity C-reactive protein. This study assessed the relationship between birth weight, anthropometric and metabolic parameters during childhood, and high sensitivity C-reactive protein. A total of 612 Brazilian school children aged 5-13 years were included in the study. High sensitivity C-reactive protein was measured by particle-enhanced immunonephelometry. Nutritional status was assessed by body mass index, waist circumference, and skinfolds. Total cholesterol and fractions, triglycerides, and glucose were measured by enzymatic methods. Insulin sensitivity was determined by the homeostasis model assessment method. Statistical analysis included chi-square test, General Linear Model, and General Linear Model for Gamma Distribution. Body mass index, waist circumference, and skinfolds were directly associated with birth weight (P < 0.001, P = 0.001, and P = 0.015, resp.). Large for gestational age children showed higher high sensitivity C-reactive protein levels (P < 0.001) than small for gestational age. High birth weight is associated with higher levels of high sensitivity C-reactive protein, body mass index, waist circumference, and skinfolds. Large for gestational age altered high sensitivity C-reactive protein and promoted additional risk factor for atherosclerosis in these school children, independent of current nutritional status.

Effect of Network-Assisted Language Teaching Model on Undergraduate English Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

He, Chunyan

2013-01-01

With the coming of the information age, computer-based teaching model has had an important impact on English teaching. Since 2004, the trial instruction on Network-assisted Language Teaching (NALT) Model integrating the English instruction and computer technology has been launched at some universities in China, including China university of…

I'll Have What She's Having: The Impact of Model Characteristics on Children's Food Choices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frazier, Brandy N.; Gelman, Susan A.; Kaciroti, Niko; Russell, Joshua W.; Lumeng, Julie C.

2012-01-01

This research investigates children's use of social categories in their food selection. Across three studies, we presented preschoolers with sets of photographs that contrasted food-eating models with different characteristics, including model gender, race (Black, White), age (child or adult), and/or expression (acceptance or rejection of the…

A Moderated Mediation Model: Racial Discrimination, Coping Strategies, and Racial Identity among Black Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seaton, Eleanor K.; Upton, Rachel; Gilbert, Adrianne; Volpe, Vanessa

2014-01-01

This study examined a moderated mediation model among 314 Black adolescents aged 13-18. The model included general coping strategies (e.g., active, distracting, avoidant, and support-seeking strategies) as mediators and racial identity dimensions (racial centrality, private regard, public regard, minority, assimilationist, and humanist ideologies)…

Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Mercadante, M E Z; Lôbo, R B; Baldi, F; Albuquerque, L G

2012-02-01

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

Buns, Scissors and Strawberry Laces--A Model of Science Education?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, Ed; Edwards, Rebecca

2009-01-01

Models are included in the science National Curriculum because modelling is a key tool for scientists and an integral part of how science works. Modelling is explicitly referred to in the Programmes of Study for Science at Key Stage 3 and 4 (age 11-16) and in Assessing Pupil's Progress (APP). Pupils need to learn how to use models because they are…

The Human Ageing Genomic Resources: online databases and tools for biogerontologists

PubMed Central

de Magalhães, João Pedro; Budovsky, Arie; Lehmann, Gilad; Costa, Joana; Li, Yang; Fraifeld, Vadim; Church, George M.

2009-01-01

Summary Ageing is a complex, challenging phenomenon that will require multiple, interdisciplinary approaches to unravel its puzzles. To assist basic research on ageing, we developed the Human Ageing Genomic Resources (HAGR). This work provides an overview of the databases and tools in HAGR and describes how the gerontology research community can employ them. Several recent changes and improvements to HAGR are also presented. The two centrepieces in HAGR are GenAge and AnAge. GenAge is a gene database featuring genes associated with ageing and longevity in model organisms, a curated database of genes potentially associated with human ageing, and a list of genes tested for their association with human longevity. A myriad of biological data and information is included for hundreds of genes, making GenAge a reference for research that reflects our current understanding of the genetic basis of ageing. GenAge can also serve as a platform for the systems biology of ageing, and tools for the visualization of protein-protein interactions are also included. AnAge is a database of ageing in animals, featuring over 4,000 species, primarily assembled as a resource for comparative and evolutionary studies of ageing. Longevity records, developmental and reproductive traits, taxonomic information, basic metabolic characteristics, and key observations related to ageing are included in AnAge. Software is also available to aid researchers in the form of Perl modules to automate numerous tasks and as an SPSS script to analyse demographic mortality data. The Human Ageing Genomic Resources are available online at http://genomics.senescence.info. PMID:18986374

Psychological distress in young adults exposed to war-related trauma in childhood.

PubMed

Llabre, Maria M; Hadi, Fawzyiah; La Greca, Annette M; Lai, Betty S

2015-01-01

We tested a conceptual model of the effect of war-trauma exposure in childhood on psychological distress in young adulthood. Participants included 151 urban Kuwaiti children (51% female; M age = 10.62 years) exposed to the 1990-1991 Gulf crisis (assessed in 1993); participants also included 140 parents (81% female; M age mothers = 36.50 years; M age fathers = 41 years). In 2003, 120 participants were reassessed as young adults (50% female; M age = 21.19 years). The conceptual model was evaluated with structural equations. War-trauma exposure was associated with psychological distress in children and parents, but parents reported larger effects than children. Parents' psychological distress did not contribute to children's psychological distress. Children's psychological distress did not dissipate over time. Social support may function as a potential mediator of the effect of war-trauma exposure on psychological distress. Findings support the importance of early detection and treatment of children exposed to war trauma. Findings also implicate social support as a factor to consider in clinical interventions for children exposed to war trauma.

Exercise counteracts declining hippocampal function in aging and Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Intlekofer, Karlie A; Cotman, Carl W

2013-09-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) afflicts more than 5.4 million Americans and ranks as the most common type of dementia (Thies and Bleiler, 2011), yet effective pharmacological treatments have not been identified. Substantial evidence indicates that physical activity enhances learning and memory for people of all ages, including individuals that suffer from cognitive impairment. The mechanisms that underlie these benefits have been explored using animal models, including transgenic models of AD. Accumulating research shows that physical activity reinstates hippocampal function by enhancing the expression of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and other growth factors that promote neurogenesis, angiogenesis, and synaptic plasticity. In addition, several studies have found that physical activity counteracts age- and AD-associated declines in mitochondrial and immune system function. A growing body of evidence also suggests that exercise interventions hold the potential to reduce the pathological features associated with AD. Taken together, animal and human studies indicate that exercise provides a powerful stimulus that can countervail the molecular changes that underlie the progressive loss of hippocampal function in advanced age and AD. 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc

Nitrate vulnerability projections from Bayesian inference of multiple groundwater age tracers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alikhani, Jamal; Deinhart, Amanda L.; Visser, Ate

Nitrate is a major source of contamination of groundwater in the United States and around the world. We tested the applicability of multiple groundwater age tracers ( 3H, 3He, 4He, 14C, 13C, and 85Kr) in projecting future trends of nitrate concentration in 9 long-screened, public drinking water wells in Turlock, California, where nitrate concentrations are increasing toward the regulatory limit. Very low 85Kr concentrations and apparent 3H/ 3He ages point to a relatively old modern fraction (40–50 years), diluted with pre-modern groundwater, corroborated by the onset and slope of increasing nitrate concentrations. An inverse Gaussian–Dirac model was chosen to representmore » the age distribution of the sampled groundwater at each well. Model parameters were estimated using a Bayesian inference, resulting in the posterior probability distribution – including the associated uncertainty – of the parameters and projected nitrate concentrations. Three scenarios were considered, including combined historic nitrate and age tracer data, the sole use of nitrate and the sole use of age tracer data. Each scenario was evaluated based on the ability of the model to reproduce the data and the level of reliability of the nitrate projections. The tracer-only scenario closely reproduced tracer concentrations, but not observed trends in the nitrate concentration. Both cases that included nitrate data resulted in good agreement with historical nitrate trends. Use of combined tracers and nitrate data resulted in a narrower range of projections of future nitrate levels. However, use of combined tracer and nitrate resulted in a larger discrepancy between modeled and measured tracers for some of the tracers. In conclusion, despite nitrate trend slopes between 0.56 and 1.73 mg/L/year in 7 of the 9 wells, the probability that concentrations will increase to levels above the MCL by 2040 are over 95% for only two of the wells, and below 15% in the other wells, due to a leveling off of reconstructed historical nitrate loadings to groundwater since about 1990.« less

Residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women.

PubMed

Si, Lei; Winzenberg, Tania M; Chen, Mingsheng; Jiang, Qicheng; Palmer, Andrew J

2015-06-01

To determine the residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women. A validated state-transition microsimulation model was used. Microsimulation and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to address the uncertainties in the model. All parameters including fracture incidence rates and mortality rates were retrieved from published literature. Simulated subjects were run through the model until they died to estimate the residual lifetime fracture risks. A 10 year time horizon was used to determine the 10 year fracture risks. We estimated the risk of only the first osteoporotic fracture during the simulation time horizon. The residual lifetime and 10 year risks of having the first osteoporotic (hip, clinical vertebral or wrist) fracture for Chinese women aged 50 years were 40.9% (95% CI: 38.3-44.0%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 6.8-9.3%) respectively. For men, the residual lifetime and 10 year fracture risks were 8.7% (95% CI: 7.5-9.8%) and 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8-1.7%) respectively. The residual lifetime fracture risks declined with age, whilst the 10 year fracture risks increased with age until the short-term mortality risks outstripped the fracture risks. Residual lifetime and 10 year clinical vertebral fracture risks were higher than those of hip and wrist fractures in both sexes. More than one third of the Chinese women and approximately one tenth of the Chinese men aged 50 years are expected to sustain a major osteoporotic fracture in their remaining lifetimes. Due to increased fracture risks and a rapidly ageing population, osteoporosis will present a great challenge to the Chinese healthcare system. While national data was used wherever possible, regional Chinese hip and clinical vertebral fracture incidence rates were used, wrist fracture rates were taken from a Norwegian study and calibrated to the Chinese population. Other fracture sites like tibia, humerus, ribs and pelvis were not included in the analysis, thus these risks are likely to be underestimates. Fracture risk factors other than age and sex were not included in the model. Point estimates were used for fracture incidence rates, osteoporosis prevalence and mortality rates for the general population.

Nitrate vulnerability projections from Bayesian inference of multiple groundwater age tracers

DOE PAGES

Alikhani, Jamal; Deinhart, Amanda L.; Visser, Ate; ...

2016-04-20

Nitrate is a major source of contamination of groundwater in the United States and around the world. We tested the applicability of multiple groundwater age tracers ( 3H, 3He, 4He, 14C, 13C, and 85Kr) in projecting future trends of nitrate concentration in 9 long-screened, public drinking water wells in Turlock, California, where nitrate concentrations are increasing toward the regulatory limit. Very low 85Kr concentrations and apparent 3H/ 3He ages point to a relatively old modern fraction (40–50 years), diluted with pre-modern groundwater, corroborated by the onset and slope of increasing nitrate concentrations. An inverse Gaussian–Dirac model was chosen to representmore » the age distribution of the sampled groundwater at each well. Model parameters were estimated using a Bayesian inference, resulting in the posterior probability distribution – including the associated uncertainty – of the parameters and projected nitrate concentrations. Three scenarios were considered, including combined historic nitrate and age tracer data, the sole use of nitrate and the sole use of age tracer data. Each scenario was evaluated based on the ability of the model to reproduce the data and the level of reliability of the nitrate projections. The tracer-only scenario closely reproduced tracer concentrations, but not observed trends in the nitrate concentration. Both cases that included nitrate data resulted in good agreement with historical nitrate trends. Use of combined tracers and nitrate data resulted in a narrower range of projections of future nitrate levels. However, use of combined tracer and nitrate resulted in a larger discrepancy between modeled and measured tracers for some of the tracers. In conclusion, despite nitrate trend slopes between 0.56 and 1.73 mg/L/year in 7 of the 9 wells, the probability that concentrations will increase to levels above the MCL by 2040 are over 95% for only two of the wells, and below 15% in the other wells, due to a leveling off of reconstructed historical nitrate loadings to groundwater since about 1990.« less

Investigating the prostate specific antigen, body mass index and age relationship: is an age-BMI-adjusted PSA model clinically useful?

PubMed

Harrison, Sean; Tilling, Kate; Turner, Emma L; Lane, J Athene; Simpkin, Andrew; Davis, Michael; Donovan, Jenny; Hamdy, Freddie C; Neal, David E; Martin, Richard M

2016-12-01

Previous studies indicate a possible inverse relationship between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and body mass index (BMI), and a positive relationship between PSA and age. We investigated the associations between age, BMI, PSA, and screen-detected prostate cancer to determine whether an age-BMI-adjusted PSA model would be clinically useful for detecting prostate cancer. Cross-sectional analysis nested within the UK ProtecT trial of treatments for localized cancer. Of 18,238 men aged 50-69 years, 9,457 men without screen-detected prostate cancer (controls) and 1,836 men with prostate cancer (cases) met inclusion criteria: no history of prostate cancer or diabetes; PSA < 10 ng/ml; BMI between 15 and 50 kg/m 2 . Multivariable linear regression models were used to investigate the relationship between log-PSA, age, and BMI in all men, controlling for prostate cancer status. In the 11,293 included men, the median PSA was 1.2 ng/ml (IQR: 0.7-2.6); mean age 61.7 years (SD 4.9); and mean BMI 26.8 kg/m 2 (SD 3.7). There were a 5.1% decrease in PSA per 5 kg/m 2 increase in BMI (95% CI 3.4-6.8) and a 13.6% increase in PSA per 5-year increase in age (95% CI 12.0-15.1). Interaction tests showed no evidence for different associations between age, BMI, and PSA in men above and below 3.0 ng/ml (all p for interaction >0.2). The age-BMI-adjusted PSA model performed as well as an age-adjusted model based on National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines at detecting prostate cancer. Age and BMI were associated with small changes in PSA. An age-BMI-adjusted PSA model is no more clinically useful for detecting prostate cancer than current NICE guidelines. Future studies looking at the effect of different variables on PSA, independent of their effect on prostate cancer, may improve the discrimination of PSA for prostate cancer.

Adolescents' prospective screen time by gender and parental education, the mediation of parental influences.

PubMed

Totland, Torunn H; Bjelland, Mona; Lien, Nanna; Bergh, Ingunn H; Gebremariam, Mekdes K; Grydeland, May; Ommundsen, Yngvar; Andersen, Lene F

2013-07-06

The present study investigated associations in gender dyads of parents' and adolescents' time spent on television and video viewing (TV/DVD), and computer and electronic game use (PC/games) at the ages of 11 and 13 years. Possible mediating effects of parental modelling and parental regulation in the relationship between parental education and adolescents' prospective TV/DVD and PC/game time were further examined. A total of 908 adolescents, participating at both ages 11 and 13 years in the Norwegian HEalth In Adolescents (HEIA) cohort study (2007-2009), were included in the analyses. Data on adolescents', mothers' and fathers' self reported time spent on TV/DVD and PC/games were measured at both time points by questionnaires. Correlation coefficients were used to examine gender dyads of parents' and adolescents' reports. Mediation analyses using linear regression investigated possible mediation effects of parental modelling and parental regulation in the prospective relationship between parental education and adolescents' time spent on TV/DVD and PC/games between the ages of 11 and 13 years. Correlations of screen time behaviours in gender dyads of parents and adolescents showed significant associations in time spent on TV/DVD at the age of 11 and 13 years. Associations between mothers and sons and between fathers and daughters were also observed in time spent on PC/games at the age of 11 years. Maternal and paternal modelling was further found to mediate the relationship between parental education and adolescents' prospective TV/DVD time between the ages of 11 and 13 years. No mediation effect was observed for parental regulation, however a decrease in both maternal and paternal regulation at the age of 11 years significantly predicted more TV/DVD time among adolescents at the age of 13 years. Cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships were observed in gender dyads of parents' and adolescents' screen time behaviours at the ages of 11 and 13 years, and further studies including both parents and their children should be emphasized. Moreover, maternal and paternal modelling were found to be important target variables in interventions aiming to reduce social differences by parental education in adolescents' prospective time spent on TV/DVD.

Multi-Scale Model of Galactic Cosmic Ray Effects on the Hippocampus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis

An important concern for risk assessment from galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures is impacts to the central nervous systems including changes in cognition, and associations with increased risk of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). AD, which affects about 50 percent of the population above age 80-yr, is a degenerative disease that worsens with time after initial onset leading to death, and has no known cure. AD is difficult to detect at early stages, and the small number of epidemiology studies that have considered the possibility have not identified an association with low dose radiation. However, experimental studies in transgenic mice suggest the possibility exits. We discuss modeling approaches to consider mechanisms whereby GCR would accelerate the occurrence of AD to earlier ages. Biomarkers of AD include Amyloid beta plaques, and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) made up of aggregates of the hyper-phosphorylated form of the micro-tubule associated, tau protein. Related markers include synaptic degeneration, dendritic spine loss, and neuronal cell loss through apoptosis. GCR may affect these processes by causing oxidative stress, aberrant signaling following DNA damage, and chronic neuro-inflammation. Cell types considered in multi-scale models are neurons, astrocytes, and microglia. We developed biochemical and cell kinetics models of DNA damage signaling related to glycogen synthase kinase-3 beta and neuro-inflammation, and considered approaches to develop computer simulations of GCR induced cell interactions and their relationships to Amyloid beta plaques and NFTs. Comparison of model results to experimental data for the age specific development of plaques in transgenic mice and predictions of space radiation effects will be discussed.

[Acute kidney injury after pediatric cardiac surgery: risk factors and outcomes. Proposal for a predictive model].

PubMed

Cardoso, Bárbara; Laranjo, Sérgio; Gomes, Inês; Freitas, Isabel; Trigo, Conceição; Fragata, Isabel; Fragata, José; Pinto, Fátima

2016-02-01

To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day-18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients' age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Implementing a university-community-retail partnership model to facilitate community education on universal design.

PubMed

Price, Christine A; Zavotka, Susan L; Teaford, Margaret H

2004-10-01

A collaborative partnership model was used to develop and implement a state-wide community education program on universal design. University faculty, extension professionals, older adult service agencies, service learning students, and a community retail chain made up the original partnership. This collaboration resulted in a five-stage partnership model. The model was used to develop and disseminate a consumer education program to promote aging in place. The five stages include (a) identifying partner strengths and shared learning, (b) program development, (c) implementing the universal design program, (d) facilitating collaborative outreach, and (e) shifting toward sustainable outreach. A lack of knowledge exists among consumers, builders, and health care professionals regarding strategies for aging in place. Collaborations between educators, outreach professionals, students, and a retail partner resulted in increased interest and awareness about universal design changes that enable seniors to age in place.

Attitudes Towards Seeking Psychological Help among a Sample of Turkish University Students: The Roles of Rumination and Internal Working Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turan, Numan; Erdur-Baker, Özgür

2014-01-01

The current study investigates how attitudes towards seeking psychological help relate to internal working models of attachment (self-model and other-model) and ruminative tendencies. The study includes 589 Turkish university students (278 females, 308 males and 3 unknown) by implementing a convenient sampling procedure. The average age of the…

Dental caries clusters among adolescents.

PubMed

Warren, John J; Van Buren, John M; Levy, Steven M; Marshall, Teresa A; Cavanaugh, Joseph E; Curtis, Alexandra M; Kolker, Justine L; Weber-Gasparoni, Karin

2017-12-01

There have been very few longitudinal studies of dental caries in adolescents, and little study of the caries risk factors in this age group. The purpose of this study was to describe different caries trajectories and associated risk factors among members of the Iowa Fluoride Study (IFS) cohort. The IFS recruited a birth cohort from 1992 to 1995, and has gathered dietary, fluoride and behavioural data at least twice yearly since recruitment. Examinations for dental caries were completed when participants were ages 5, 9, 13 and 17 years. For this study, only participants with decayed and filled surface (DFS) caries data at ages 9, 13 and 17 were included (N=396). The individual DFS counts at age 13 and the DFS increment from 13 to 17 were used to identify distinct caries trajectories using Ward's hierarchical clustering algorithm. A number of multinomial logistic regression models were developed to predict trajectory membership, using longitudinal dietary, fluoride and demographic/behavioural data from 9 to 17 years. Model selection was based on the akaike information criterion (AIC). Several different trajectory schemes were considered, and a three-trajectory scheme-no DFS at age 17 (n=142), low DFS (n=145) and high DFS (n=109)-was chosen to balance sample sizes and interpretability. The model selection process resulted in use of an arithmetic average for dietary variables across the period from 9 to 17 years. The multinomial logistic regression model with the best fit included the variables maternal education level, 100% juice consumption, brushing frequency and sex. Other favoured models also included water and milk consumption and home water fluoride concentration. The high caries cluster was most consistently associated with lower maternal education level, lower 100% juice consumption, lower brushing frequency and being female. The use of a clustering algorithm and use of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to determine the best representation of the data were useful means in presenting longitudinal caries data. Findings suggest that high caries incidence in adolescence is associated with lower maternal educational level, less frequent tooth brushing, lower 100% juice consumption and being female. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A longitudinal analysis of the effects of age on the blood plasma metabolome in the common marmoset, Callithrix jacchus

PubMed Central

Hoffman, Jessica M.; Tran, ViLinh; Wachtman, Lynn M.; Green, Cara L.; Jones, Dean P.; Promislow, Daniel E.L.

2016-01-01

Primates tend to be long-lived for their size with humans being the longest lived of all primates. There are compelling reasons to understand the underlying age-related processes that shape human lifespan. But the very fact of our long lifespan that makes it so compelling, also makes it especially difficult to study. Thus, in studies of aging, researchers have turned to non-human primate models, including chimpanzees, baboons, and rhesus macaques. More recently, the common marmoset, Callithrix jacchus, has been recognized as a particularly valuable model in studies of aging, given its small size, ease of housing in captivity, and relatively short lifespan. However, little is known about the physiological changes that occur as marmosets age. To begin to fill in this gap, we utilized high sensitivity metabolomics to define the longitudinal biochemical changes associated with age in the common marmoset. We measured 2104 metabolites from blood plasma at three separate time points over a 17-month period, and we completed both a cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of the metabolome. We discovered hundreds of metabolites associated with age and body weight in both male and female animals. Our longitudinal analysis identified age-associated metabolic pathways that were not found in our cross-sectional analysis. Pathways enriched for age-associated metabolites included tryptophan, nucleotide, and xenobiotic metabolism, suggesting these biochemical pathways might play an important role in the basic mechanisms of aging in primates. Moreover, we found that many metabolic pathways associated with age were sex specific. Our work illustrates the power of longitudinal approaches, even in a short time frame, to discover novel biochemical changes that occur with age. PMID:26805607

Survival of white-tailed deer neonates in Minnesota and South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grovenburg, T.W.; Swanson, C.C.; Jacques, C.N.; Klaver, R.W.; Brinkman, T.J.; Burris, B.M.; Deperno, C.S.; Jenks, J.A.

2011-01-01

Understanding the influence of intrinsic (e.g., age, birth mass, and sex) and habitat factors on survival of neonate white-tailed deer improves understanding of population ecology. During 2002–2004, we captured and radiocollared 78 neonates in eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota, of which 16 died before 1 September. Predation accounted for 80% of mortality; the remaining 20% was attributed to starvation. Canids (coyotes [Canis latrans], domestic dogs) accounted for 100% of predation on neonates. We used known fate analysis in Program MARK to estimate survival rates and investigate the influence of intrinsic and habitat variables on survival. We developed 2 a priori model sets, including intrinsic variables (model set 1) and habitat variables (model set 2; forested cover, wetlands, grasslands, and croplands). For model set 1, model {Sage-interval} had the lowest AICc (Akaike's information criterion for small sample size) value, indicating that age at mortality (3-stage age-interval: 0–2 weeks, 2–8 weeks, and >8 weeks) best explained survival. Model set 2 indicated that habitat variables did not further influence survival in the study area; β-estimates and 95% confidence intervals for habitat variables in competing models encompassed zero; thus, we excluded these models from consideration. Overall survival rate using model {Sage-interval} was 0.87 (95% CI = 0.83–0.91); 61% of mortalities occurred at 0–2 weeks of age, 26% at 2–8 weeks of age, and 13% at >8 weeks of age. Our results indicate that variables influencing survival may be area specific. Region-specific data are needed to determine influences of intrinsic and habitat variables on neonate survival before wildlife managers can determine which habitat management activities influence neonate populations.

Young star clusters in nearby molecular clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getman, K. V.; Kuhn, M. A.; Feigelson, E. D.; Broos, P. S.; Bate, M. R.; Garmire, G. P.

2018-06-01

The SFiNCs (Star Formation in Nearby Clouds) project is an X-ray/infrared study of the young stellar populations in 22 star-forming regions with distances ≲ 1 kpc designed to extend our earlier MYStIX (Massive Young Star-Forming Complex Study in Infrared and X-ray) survey of more distant clusters. Our central goal is to give empirical constraints on cluster formation mechanisms. Using parametric mixture models applied homogeneously to the catalogue of SFiNCs young stars, we identify 52 SFiNCs clusters and 19 unclustered stellar structures. The procedure gives cluster properties including location, population, morphology, association with molecular clouds, absorption, age (AgeJX), and infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) slope. Absorption, SED slope, and AgeJX are age indicators. SFiNCs clusters are examined individually, and collectively with MYStIX clusters, to give the following results. (1) SFiNCs is dominated by smaller, younger, and more heavily obscured clusters than MYStIX. (2) SFiNCs cloud-associated clusters have the high ellipticities aligned with their host molecular filaments indicating morphology inherited from their parental clouds. (3) The effect of cluster expansion is evident from the radius-age, radius-absorption, and radius-SED correlations. Core radii increase dramatically from ˜0.08 to ˜0.9 pc over the age range 1-3.5 Myr. Inferred gas removal time-scales are longer than 1 Myr. (4) Rich, spatially distributed stellar populations are present in SFiNCs clouds representing early generations of star formation. An appendix compares the performance of the mixture models and non-parametric minimum spanning tree to identify clusters. This work is a foundation for future SFiNCs/MYStIX studies including disc longevity, age gradients, and dynamical modelling.

The Effect of Novel Research Activities on Long-term Survival of Temporarily Captive Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus)

PubMed Central

Shuert, Courtney; Horning, Markus; Mellish, Jo-Ann

2015-01-01

Two novel research approaches were developed to facilitate controlled access to, and long-term monitoring of, juvenile Steller sea lions for periods longer than typically afforded by traditional fieldwork. The Transient Juvenile Steller sea lion Project at the Alaska SeaLife Center facilitated nutritional, physiological, and behavioral studies on the platform of temporary captivity. Temporarily captive sea lions (TJs, n = 35) were studied, and were intraperitoneally implanted with Life History Transmitters (LHX tags) to determine causes of mortality post-release. Our goal was to evaluate the potential for long-term impacts of temporary captivity and telemetry implants on the survival of study individuals. A simple open-population Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model was built in program MARK, incorporating resightings of uniquely branded study individuals gathered by several contributing institutions. A priori models were developed to weigh the evidence of effects of experimental treatment on survival with covariates of sex, age, capture age, cohort, and age class. We compared survival of experimental treatment to a control group of n = 27 free-ranging animals (FRs) that were sampled during capture events and immediately released. Sex has previously been show to differentially affect juvenile survival in Steller sea lions. Therefore, sex was included in all models to account for unbalanced sex ratios within the experimental group. Considerable support was identified for the effects of sex, accounting for over 71% of total weight for all a priori models with delta AICc <5, and over 91% of model weight after removal of pretending variables. Overall, most support was found for the most parsimonious model based on sex and excluding experimental treatment. Models including experimental treatment were not supported after post-hoc considerations of model selection criteria. However, given the limited sample size, alternate models including effects of experimental treatments remain possible and effects may yet become apparent in larger sample sizes. PMID:26580549

Determination of Fundamental Properties of an M31 Globular Cluster from Main-Sequence Photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jun; Wu, Zhenyu; Wang, Song; Fan, Zhou; Zhou, Xu; Wu, Jianghua; Jiang, Zhaoji; Chen, Jiansheng

2010-10-01

M31 globular cluster B379 is the first extragalactic cluster whose age was determined by main-sequence photometry. In the main-sequence photometric method, the age of a cluster is obtained by fitting its color-magnitude diagram (CMD) with stellar evolutionary models. However, different stellar evolutionary models use different parameters of stellar evolution, such as range of stellar masses, different opacities and equations of state, and different recipes, and so on. So, it is interesting to check whether different stellar evolutionary models can give consistent results for the same cluster. Brown et al. constrained the age of B379 by comparing its CMD with isochrones of the 2006 VandenBerg models. Using SSP models of Bruzual & Charlot and its multiphotometry, ZMa et al. independently determined the age of B379, which is in good agreement with the determination of Brown et al. The models of Bruzual & Charlot are calculated based on the Padova evolutionary tracks. It is necessary to check whether the age of B379 as determined based on the Padova evolutionary tracks is in agreement with the determination of Brown et al.. In this article, we redetermine the age of B379 using isochrones of the Padova stellar evolutionary models. In addition, the metal abundance, the distance modulus, and the reddening value for B379 are reported. The results obtained are consistent with the previous determinations, which include the age obtained by Brown et al. This article thus confirms the consistency of the age scale of B379 between the Padova isochrones and the 2006 VandenBerg isochrones; i.e., the comparison between the results of Brown et al. and Ma et al. is meaningful. The results reported in this article of values found for B379 are: metallicity [M/H] = log(Z/Z ⊙) = -0.325, age τ = 11.0 ± 1.5 Gyr, reddening E(B - V) = 0.08, and distance modulus (m - M)0 = 24.44 ± 0.10.

[Cognitive advantages of the third age: a neural network model of brain aging].

PubMed

Karpenko, M P; Kachalova, L M; Budilova, E V; Terekhin, A T

2009-01-01

We consider a neural network model of age-related cognitive changes in aging brain based on Hopfield network with a sigmoid function of neuron activation. Age is included in the activation function as a parameter in the form of exponential rate denominator, which makes it possible to take into account the weakening of interneuronal links really observed in the aging brain. Analysis of properties of the Lyapunov function associated with the network shows that, with increasing parameter of age, its relief becomes smoother and the number of local minima (network attractors) decreases. As a result, the network gets less frequently stuck in the nearest local minima of the Lyapunov function and reaches a global minimum corresponding to the most effective solution of the cognitive task. It is reasonable to assume that similar changes really occur in the aging brain. Phenomenologically, these changes can be manifested as emergence in aged people of a cognitive quality such as wisdom i.e. ability to find optimal decisions in difficult controversial situations, to distract from secondary aspects and to see the problem as a whole.

Breast arterial calcification is associated with reproductive factors in asymptomatic postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Bielak, Lawrence F; Whaley, Dana H; Sheedy, Patrick F; Peyser, Patricia A

2010-09-01

The etiology of breast arterial calcification (BAC) is not well understood. We examined reproductive history and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor associations with the presence of detectable BAC in asymptomatic postmenopausal women. Reproductive history and CVD risk factors were obtained in 240 asymptomatic postmenopausal women from a community-based research study who had a screening mammogram within 2 years of their participation in the study. The mammograms were reviewed for the presence of detectable BAC. Age-adjusted logistic regression models were fit to assess the association between each risk factor and the presence of BAC. Multiple variable logistic regression models were used to identify the most parsimonious model for the presence of BAC. The prevalence of BAC increased with increased age (p < 0.0001). The most parsimonious logistic regression model for BAC presence included age at time of examination, increased parity (p = 0.01), earlier age at first birth (p = 0.002), weight, and an age-by-weight interaction term (p = 0.004). Older women with a smaller body size had a higher probability of having BAC than women of the same age with a larger body size. The presence or absence of BAC at mammography may provide an assessment of a postmenopausal woman's lifetime estrogen exposure and indicate women who could be at risk for hormonally related conditions.

Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data.

PubMed

Prem, Kiesha; Cook, Alex R; Jit, Mark

2017-09-01

Heterogeneities in contact networks have a major effect in determining whether a pathogen can become epidemic or persist at endemic levels. Epidemic models that determine which interventions can successfully prevent an outbreak need to account for social structure and mixing patterns. Contact patterns vary across age and locations (e.g. home, work, and school), and including them as predictors in transmission dynamic models of pathogens that spread socially will improve the models' realism. Data from population-based contact diaries in eight European countries from the POLYMOD study were projected to 144 other countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimated the proclivity of age-and-location-specific contact patterns for the countries, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Household level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for nine lower-income countries and socio-demographic factors from several on-line databases for 152 countries were used to quantify similarity of countries to estimate contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for countries for which no contact data are available, accounting for demographic structure, household structure where known, and a variety of metrics including workforce participation and school enrolment. Contacts are highly assortative with age across all countries considered, but pronounced regional differences in the age-specific contacts at home were noticeable, with more inter-generational contacts in Asian countries than in other settings. Moreover, there were variations in contact patterns by location, with work-place contacts being least assortative. These variations led to differences in the effect of social distancing measures in an age structured epidemic model. Contacts have an important role in transmission dynamic models that use contact rates to characterize the spread of contact-transmissible diseases. This study provides estimates of mixing patterns for societies for which contact data such as POLYMOD are not yet available.

Meta-analysis of the effect of initial serum protein concentration and empirical prediction model for growth of neonatal Holstein calves through 8 weeks of age.

PubMed

Bateman, H G; Hill, T M; Aldrich, J M; Schlotterbeck, R L; Firkins, J L

2012-01-01

A data set was constructed from individual calf means gathered in the Nurture Research Center (Lewisburg, OH) and used in a meta-analysis to parameterize an empirical model predicting growth measures for neonatal calves. The data set contained 993 observations from 20 research trials conducted in all seasons of multiple years. Growth measures gathered included average daily gain (ADG) preweaning, postweaning, and through 8 wk of age. Independent variables gathered included age at weaning; total starter intake (SI); total milk replacer intake (MRI); milk replacer CP (MRCP) and fat (MRfat) contents; number of days with abnormal fecal scores (AFS); average environmental temperature preweaning, postweaning, and through 8 wk of age; minimum and maximum temperature during the entire 8 wk; body weight at d 0; and initial serum protein concentration. Additionally, the interactions of SI, MRI, and MRCP and MRfat were considered for the model. Backward elimination multiple regressions were conducted using a mixed model with a random effect of trial. The final model for total ADG indicated that increasing SI or MRI improves calf growth. Also, increasing MRCP or MRfat increased growth. Increased sickness (as measured by increased AFS) or increased body weight at d 0 decreased ADG. Growth of neonatal dairy calves appears to be more controlled by nutrient intake and their interactions than by surrogates for health status of the calves (AFS and initial serum protein concentration) or environmental temperature. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age-Dependent Risk of Graft Failure in Young Kidney Transplant Recipients.

PubMed

Kaboré, Rémi; Couchoud, Cécile; Macher, Marie-Alice; Salomon, Rémi; Ranchin, Bruno; Lahoche, Annie; Roussey-Kesler, Gwenaelle; Garaix, Florentine; Decramer, Stéphane; Pietrement, Christine; Lassalle, Mathilde; Baudouin, Véronique; Cochat, Pierre; Niaudet, Patrick; Joly, Pierre; Leffondré, Karen; Harambat, Jérôme

2017-06-01

The risk of graft failure in young kidney transplant recipients has been found to increase during adolescence and early adulthood. However, this question has not been addressed outside the United States so far. Our objective was to investigate whether the hazard of graft failure also increases during this age period in France irrespective of age at transplantation. Data of all first kidney transplantation performed before 30 years of age between 1993 and 2012 were extracted from the French kidney transplant database. The hazard of graft failure was estimated at each current age using a 2-stage modelling approach that accounted for both age at transplantation and time since transplantation. Hazard ratios comparing the risk of graft failure during adolescence or early adulthood to other periods were estimated from time-dependent Cox models. A total of 5983 renal transplant recipients were included. The risk of graft failure was found to increase around the age of 13 years until the age of 21 years, and decrease thereafter. Results from the Cox model indicated that the hazard of graft failure during the age period 13 to 23 years was almost twice as high as than during the age period 0 to 12 years, and 25% higher than after 23 years. Among first kidney transplant recipients younger than 30 years in France, those currently in adolescence or early adulthood have the highest risk of graft failure.

Carbon cycle instability as a cause of the late Pleistocene ice age oscillations - Modeling the asymmetric response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saltzman, B.; Maasch, K.A.

1988-06-01

A dynamical model of the Pleistocene ice ages is presented, which incorporates many of the qualitative ideas advanced recently regarding the possible role of ocean circulation, chemistry, temperature, and productivity in regulating long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide variations. This model involves one additional term (and free parameter) beyond that included in a previous model (Saltzman and Sutera, 1987), providing the capacity for an asymmetric response. It is shown that many of the main features exhibited by the delta(O-18)-derived ice record and the Vostok core/delta(C-13)-derived carbon dioxide record in the late Pleistocene can be deduced as a free oscillatory solution of themore » model. 35 refs.« less

Anti-aging effect of adipose-derived stem cells in a mouse model of skin aging induced by D-galactose.

PubMed

Zhang, Shengchang; Dong, Ziqing; Peng, Zhangsong; Lu, Feng

2014-01-01

Glycation products accumulate during aging of slowly renewing tissue, including skin, and are suggested as an important mechanism underlying the skin aging process. Adipose-derived cells are widely used in the clinic to treat ischemic diseases and enhance wound healing. Interestingly, adipose-derived stem cells (ASCs) are also effective in anti-aging therapy, although the mechanism underlying their effects remains unknown. The purpose of the present study was to examine the anti-aging effect of ASCs in a D-galactose-induced aging animal model and to clarify the underlying mechanism. Six-week-old nude mice were subcutaneously injected with D-gal daily for 8 weeks. Two weeks after completion of treatment, mice were randomized to receive subcutaneous injections of 106 green fluorescent protein (GFP)-expressing ASCs, aminoguanidine (AG) or phosphate-buffered saline (PBS). Control mice received no treatment. We examined tissue histology and determined the activity of senescence-associated molecular markers such as superoxide dismutase (SOD) and malondialdehyde (MDA). Transplanted ASCs were detectable for 14 days and their GFP signal disappeared at day 28 after injection. ASCs inhibited advanced glycation end product (AGE) levels in our animal model as well as increased the SOD level and decreased the MDA level, all of which act to reverse the aging phenotype in a similar way to AG, an inhibitor of AGE formation. Furthermore, ASCs released angiogenic factors in vivo such as vascular endothelial growth factor, suggesting a skin trophic effect. These results demonstrate that ASCs may contribute to the regeneration of skin during aging. In addition, the data shows that ASCs provide a functional benefit by glycation suppression, antioxidation, and trophic effects in a mouse model of aging.

Antenatal blood pressure for prediction of pre-eclampsia, preterm birth, and small for gestational age babies: development and validation in two general population cohorts

PubMed Central

Silverwood, Richard J; de Stavola, Bianca L; Inskip, Hazel; Cooper, Cyrus; Godfrey, Keith M; Crozier, Sarah; Fraser, Abigail; Nelson, Scott M; Lawlor, Debbie A; Tilling, Kate

2015-01-01

Study question Can routine antenatal blood pressure measurements between 20 and 36 weeks’ gestation contribute to the prediction of pre-eclampsia and its associated adverse outcomes? Methods This study used repeated antenatal measurements of blood pressure from 12 996 women in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) to develop prediction models and validated these in 3005 women from the Southampton Women’s Survey (SWS). A model based on maternal early pregnancy characteristics only (BMI, height, age, parity, smoking, existing and previous gestational hypertension and diabetes, and ethnicity) plus initial mean arterial pressure was compared with a model additionally including current mean arterial pressure, a model including the deviation of current mean arterial pressure from a stratified normogram, and a model including both at different gestational ages from 20-36 weeks. Study answer and limitations The addition of blood pressure measurements from 28 weeks onwards improved prediction models compared with use of early pregnancy risk factors alone, but they contributed little to the prediction of preterm birth or small for gestational age. Though multiple imputation of missing data was used to increase the sample size and minimise selection bias, the validation sample might have been slightly underpowered as the number of cases of pre-eclampsia was just below the recommended 100. Several risk factors were self reported, potentially introducing measurement error, but this reflects how information would be obtained in clinical practice. What this study adds The addition of routinely collected blood pressure measurements from 28 weeks onwards improves predictive models for pre-eclampsia based on blood pressure in early pregnancy and other characteristics, facilitating a reduction in scheduled antenatal care. Funding, competing interests, data sharing UK Wellcome Trust, US National Institutes of Health, and UK Medical Research Council. Other funding sources for authors are detailed in the full online paper. With the exceptions of CM-W, HMI, and KMG there were no competing interests. PMID:26578347

The effects of aging on the BTBR mouse model of autism spectrum disorder

PubMed Central

Jasien, Joan M.; Daimon, Caitlin M.; Wang, Rui; Shapiro, Bruce K.; Martin, Bronwen; Maudsley, Stuart

2014-01-01

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex heterogeneous neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by alterations in social functioning, communicative abilities, and engagement in repetitive or restrictive behaviors. The process of aging in individuals with autism and related neurodevelopmental disorders is not well understood, despite the fact that the number of individuals with ASD aged 65 and older is projected to increase by over half a million individuals in the next 20 years. To elucidate the effects of aging in the context of a modified central nervous system, we investigated the effects of age on the BTBR T + tf/j mouse, a well characterized and widely used mouse model that displays an ASD-like phenotype. We found that a reduction in social behavior persists into old age in male BTBR T + tf/j mice. We employed quantitative proteomics to discover potential alterations in signaling systems that could regulate aging in the BTBR mice. Unbiased proteomic analysis of hippocampal and cortical tissue of BTBR mice compared to age-matched wild-type controls revealed a significant decrease in brain derived neurotrophic factor and significant increases in multiple synaptic markers (spinophilin, Synapsin I, PSD 95, NeuN), as well as distinct changes in functional pathways related to these proteins, including “Neural synaptic plasticity regulation” and “Neurotransmitter secretion regulation.” Taken together, these results contribute to our understanding of the effects of aging on an ASD-like mouse model in regards to both behavior and protein alterations, though additional studies are needed to fully understand the complex interplay underlying aging in mouse models displaying an ASD-like phenotype. PMID:25225482

Are “Anti-Aging Medicine” and “Successful Aging” Two Sides of the Same Coin? Views of Anti-Aging Practitioners

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Objectives. This article analyzes data from interviews with anti-aging practitioners to evaluate how their descriptions of the work they do, their definitions of aging, and their goals for their patients intersect with gerontological views of “successful aging.” Method. Semistructured interviews were conducted with a sample of 31 anti-aging practitioners drawn from the directory of the American Academy for Anti-Aging Medicine. Results. Qualitative analysis of the transcripts demonstrate that practitioners’ descriptions of their goals, intentionally or unintentionally, mimic the dominant models of “successful aging.” These include lowered risk of disease and disability, maintenance of high levels of mental and physical function, and continuing social engagement. Yet, the means and modes of achieving these goals differ markedly between the two groups, as do the messages that each group puts forth in defending their positions. Discussion. Anti-aging practitioners’ adoption of the rhetoric of successful aging reflects the success of successful aging models in shaping popular conceptions of what aging is and an ethos of management and control over the aging process. The overlap between anti-aging and successful aging rhetoric also highlights some of the most problematic social, cultural, and economic consequences of efforts made to reconceptualize old age. PMID:24022620

Evolutionary theory of ageing and the problem of correlated Gompertz parameters.

PubMed

Burger, Oskar; Missov, Trifon I

2016-11-07

The Gompertz mortality model is often used to evaluate evolutionary theories of ageing, such as the Medawar-Williams' hypothesis that high extrinsic mortality leads to faster ageing. However, fits of the Gompertz mortality model to data often find the opposite result that mortality is negatively correlated with the rate of ageing. This negative correlation has been independently discovered in several taxa and is known in actuarial studies of ageing as the Strehler-Mildvan correlation. We examine the role of mortality selection in determining late-life variation in susceptibility to death, which has been suggested to be the cause of this negative correlation. We demonstrate that fixed-frailty models that account for heterogeneity in frailty do not remove the correlation and that the correlation is an inherent statistical property of the Gompertz distribution. Linking actuarial and biological rates of ageing will continue to be a pressing challenge, but the Strehler-Mildvan correlation itself should not be used to diagnose any biological, physiological, or evolutionary process. These findings resolve some key tensions between theory and data that affect evolutionary and biological studies of ageing and mortality. Tests of evolutionary theories of ageing should include direct measures of physiological performance or condition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oxidative changes and signalling pathways are pivotal in initiating age-related changes in articular cartilage

PubMed Central

Hui, Wang; Young, David A; Rowan, Andrew D; Xu, Xin; Cawston, Tim E; Proctor, Carole J

2016-01-01

Objective To use a computational approach to investigate the cellular and extracellular matrix changes that occur with age in the knee joints of mice. Methods Knee joints from an inbred C57/BL1/6 (ICRFa) mouse colony were harvested at 3–30 months of age. Sections were stained with H&E, Safranin-O, Picro-sirius red and antibodies to matrix metalloproteinase-13 (MMP-13), nitrotyrosine, LC-3B, Bcl-2, and cleaved type II collagen used for immunohistochemistry. Based on this and other data from the literature, a computer simulation model was built using the Systems Biology Markup Language using an iterative approach of data analysis and modelling. Individual parameters were subsequently altered to assess their effect on the model. Results A progressive loss of cartilage matrix occurred with age. Nitrotyrosine, MMP-13 and activin receptor-like kinase-1 (ALK1) staining in cartilage increased with age with a concomitant decrease in LC-3B and Bcl-2. Stochastic simulations from the computational model showed a good agreement with these data, once transforming growth factor-β signalling via ALK1/ALK5 receptors was included. Oxidative stress and the interleukin 1 pathway were identified as key factors in driving the cartilage breakdown associated with ageing. Conclusions A progressive loss of cartilage matrix and cellularity occurs with age. This is accompanied with increased levels of oxidative stress, apoptosis and MMP-13 and a decrease in chondrocyte autophagy. These changes explain the marked predisposition of joints to develop osteoarthritis with age. Computational modelling provides useful insights into the underlying mechanisms involved in age-related changes in musculoskeletal tissues. PMID:25475114

A dynamic model of the marriage market-Part 2: simulation of marital states and application to empirical data.

PubMed

Matthews, A P; Garenne, M L

2013-09-01

A dynamic, two-sex, age-structured marriage model is presented. Part 1 focused on first marriage only and described a marriage market matching algorithm. In Part 2 the model is extended to include divorce, widowing, and remarriage. The model produces a self-consistent set of marital states distributed by age and sex in a stable population by means of a gender-symmetric numerical method. The model is compared with empirical data for the case of Zambia. Furthermore, a dynamic marriage function for a changing population is demonstrated in simulations of three hypothetical scenarios of elevated mortality in young to middle adulthood. The marriage model has its primary application to simulation of HIV-AIDS epidemics in African countries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying community healthcare supports for the elderly and the factors affecting their aging care model preference: evidence from three districts of Beijing.

PubMed

Liu, Tianyang; Hao, Xiaoning; Zhang, Zhenzhong

2016-11-15

The Chinese tradition of filial piety, which prioritized family-based care for the elderly, is transitioning and elders can no longer necessarily rely on their children. The purpose of this study was to identify community support for the elderly, and analyze the factors that affect which model of old-age care elderly people dwelling in communities prefer. We used the database "Health and Social Support of Elderly Population in Community". Questionnaires were issued in 2013, covering 3 districts in Beijing. A group of 1036 people over 60 years in age were included in the study. The respondents' profile variables were organized in Andersen's Model and community healthcare resource factors were added. A multinomial logistic model was applied to analyze the factors associated with the desired aging care models. Cohabiting with children and relying on care from family was still the primary desired aging care model for seniors (78 %), followed by living in institutions (14.8 %) and living at home independently while relying on community resources (7.2 %). The regression result indicated that predisposing, enabling and community factors were significantly associated with the aging care model preference. Specifically, compared with those who preferred to cohabit with children, those having higher education, fewer available family and friend helpers, and shorter distance to healthcare center were more likely to prefer to live independently and rely on community support. And compared with choosing to live in institutions, those having fewer available family and friend helpers and those living alone were more likely to prefer to live independently and rely on community. Need factors (health and disability condition) were not significantly associated with desired aging care models, indicating that desired aging care models were passive choices resulted from the balancing of family and social caring resources. In Beijing, China, aging care arrangement preference is the result of balancing family care resources, economic and social status, and the accessibility of community resources. Community facilities and services supporting elderly were found to be insufficient. For China's future health system, efforts should be made to improve community capacity to provide integrated services to senior citizens.

Comprehensive stellar population models and the disentanglement of age and metallicity effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Worthey, Guy

1994-01-01

The construction of detailed models for intermediate and old stellar populations is described. Input parameters include metallicity (-2 less than (Fe/H) less than 0.5), single-burst age (between 1.5 and 17 Gyr), and initial mass function (IMF) exponent. Quantities output include broadband magnitudes, spectral energy distributions, surface brightness fluctuation magnitudes, and a suite of 21 absorption feature indices. The models are checked against a wide variety of available observations. Examinations of model output yield the following conclusions. (1) If the percentage change delta age/delta Z approximately equals 3/2 for two populations, they will appear almost identical in most indices. A few indices break this degeneracy by being either more abundance sensitive (Fe4668, Fe5015, Fe5709, and Fe5782) or more age sensitive (G4300, H beta, and presumably higher order Balmer lines) than usual. (2) Present uncertainties in stellar evolution are of the same magnitude as the effects of IMF and Y in the indices studied. (3) Changes in abundance ratios (like (Mg/Fe)) are predicted to be readily apparent in the spectra of old stellar populations. (4) The I-band flux of a stellar population is predicted to be nearly independent of metallicity and only modestly sensitive to age. The I band is therefore recommended for standard candle work or studies of M/L in galaxies. Other conclusions stem from this work. (1) Intercomparison of models and observations of two TiO indices seem to indicate variation of the (V/Ti) ratio among galaxies, but it is not clear how this observation ties into the standard picture of chemical enrichment. (2) Current estimates of (Fe/H) for the most metal-rich globulars that are based on integrated indices are probably slightly too high. (3) Colors of population models from different authors exhibit a substantial range. At solar metallicity and 13 Gyr, this range corresponds to an age error of roughly +/- 7 Gyr. Model colors from different authors applied in a differential sense have smaller uncertainties. (4) In the present models the dominant error for colors is probably the transformation from stellar atmospheric parameters to stellar colors. (5) Stellar B - V is difficult to model, and current spreads among different authors can reach 0.2 mag. (6) If known defects in the stellar flux library are corrected, the population model colors of this work in passbands redder than U would be accurate to roughly 0.03 mag in an absolute sense. These corrections are not made in the tables of model output.

Including Deposition Rate in Models of Cosmogenic Nuclide Accumulation in Fluvial Sediments to Improve Terrace Abandonment Ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, K. P.; Wang, N.; Van Dissen, R. J.; Little, T.

2017-12-01

Fluvial sediments are archives of the erosional, transport, and depositional processes occurring in the catchment. Terraces become robust markers for geomorphic analysis if their time of abandonment can be determined. Methods such as OSL can determine burial ages for fine grained sediments within the terrace fill but may not be directly related to the terrace abandonment age. Cosmogenic nuclides can be used to determine exposure ages for geologically young terraces but the surface being dated may have been subsequently eroded and the material itself may have been deposited with an inherited nuclide concentration. To deal with this problem, many researchers collect multiple samples with depth to model the depth-dependent nuclide concentration to help constrain inheritance and post-depositional erosion. It is often, however, assumed that the entire sediment pile accumulated instantaneously. In this submission, we present the results of a depth profile model that incorporates sediment accumulation rate to improve terrace age estimates. We test this model on fault-offset river terraces near Kaikoura, New Zealand. We measured depth profiles of OSL ages and cosmogenic nuclide concentrations of two late Quaternary terraces that are offset by up to 800 m across the Kekerengu Fault. OSL ages and dated tephras in the overlying loess provide minimum age constraints for both terraces while OSL ages of fine-grained sediments within the fill provide depositional ages. The predicted sedimentation rates for the terraces are as high as 0.5m/yr, consistent with geologically instantaneous deposition. Modelled abandonment ages from cosmogenic nuclides for the terraces are consistent with OSL and tephra constraints at 9.7 +/- 3.8 ka and 30.4 +/- 2.1 ka, respectively. These terrace abandonment ages yield dextral slip rates of 18.5-20.5 mm/yr and 25-28 mm/yr, respectively, consistent with the rapid slip rate on the adjacent Hope Fault.

Microglia Priming with Aging and Stress.

PubMed

Niraula, Anzela; Sheridan, John F; Godbout, Jonathan P

2017-01-01

The population of aged individuals is increasing worldwide and this has significant health and socio-economic implications. Clinical and experimental studies on aging have discovered myriad changes in the brain, including reduced neurogenesis, increased synaptic aberrations, higher metabolic stress, and augmented inflammation. In rodent models of aging, these alterations are associated with cognitive decline, neurobehavioral deficits, and increased reactivity to immune challenges. In rodents, caloric restriction and young blood-induced revitalization reverses the behavioral effects of aging. The increased inflammation in the aged brain is attributed, in part, to the resident population of microglia. For example, microglia of the aged brain are marked by dystrophic morphology, elevated expression of inflammatory markers, and diminished expression of neuroprotective factors. Importantly, the heightened inflammatory profile of microglia in aging is associated with a 'sensitized' or 'primed' phenotype. Mounting evidence points to a causal link between the primed profile of the aged brain and vulnerability to secondary insults, including infections and psychological stress. Conversely, psychological stress may also induce aging-like sensitization of microglia and increase reactivity to secondary challenges. This review delves into the characteristics of neuroinflammatory signaling and microglial sensitization in aging, its implications in psychological stress, and interventions that reverse aging-associated deficits.

Microglia Priming with Aging and Stress

PubMed Central

Niraula, Anzela; Sheridan, John F; Godbout, Jonathan P

2017-01-01

The population of aged individuals is increasing worldwide and this has significant health and socio-economic implications. Clinical and experimental studies on aging have discovered myriad changes in the brain, including reduced neurogenesis, increased synaptic aberrations, higher metabolic stress, and augmented inflammation. In rodent models of aging, these alterations are associated with cognitive decline, neurobehavioral deficits, and increased reactivity to immune challenges. In rodents, caloric restriction and young blood-induced revitalization reverses the behavioral effects of aging. The increased inflammation in the aged brain is attributed, in part, to the resident population of microglia. For example, microglia of the aged brain are marked by dystrophic morphology, elevated expression of inflammatory markers, and diminished expression of neuroprotective factors. Importantly, the heightened inflammatory profile of microglia in aging is associated with a ‘sensitized' or ‘primed' phenotype. Mounting evidence points to a causal link between the primed profile of the aged brain and vulnerability to secondary insults, including infections and psychological stress. Conversely, psychological stress may also induce aging-like sensitization of microglia and increase reactivity to secondary challenges. This review delves into the characteristics of neuroinflammatory signaling and microglial sensitization in aging, its implications in psychological stress, and interventions that reverse aging-associated deficits. PMID:27604565

Prediction of troponin-T degradation using color image texture features in 10d aged beef longissimus steaks.

PubMed

Sun, X; Chen, K J; Berg, E P; Newman, D J; Schwartz, C A; Keller, W L; Maddock Carlin, K R

2014-02-01

The objective was to use digital color image texture features to predict troponin-T degradation in beef. Image texture features, including 88 gray level co-occurrence texture features, 81 two-dimension fast Fourier transformation texture features, and 48 Gabor wavelet filter texture features, were extracted from color images of beef strip steaks (longissimus dorsi, n = 102) aged for 10d obtained using a digital camera and additional lighting. Steaks were designated degraded or not-degraded based on troponin-T degradation determined on d 3 and d 10 postmortem by immunoblotting. Statistical analysis (STEPWISE regression model) and artificial neural network (support vector machine model, SVM) methods were designed to classify protein degradation. The d 3 and d 10 STEPWISE models were 94% and 86% accurate, respectively, while the d 3 and d 10 SVM models were 63% and 71%, respectively, in predicting protein degradation in aged meat. STEPWISE and SVM models based on image texture features show potential to predict troponin-T degradation in meat. © 2013.

Examination of DNA methylation status of the ELOVL2 marker may be useful for human age prediction in forensic science.

PubMed

Zbieć-Piekarska, Renata; Spólnicka, Magdalena; Kupiec, Tomasz; Makowska, Żanetta; Spas, Anna; Parys-Proszek, Agnieszka; Kucharczyk, Krzysztof; Płoski, Rafał; Branicki, Wojciech

2015-01-01

Age estimation in forensic investigations may complement the prediction of externally visible characteristics and the inference of biogeographical ancestry, thus allowing a better description of an unknown individual. Multiple CpG sites that show linear correlation between age and degree of DNA methylation have been identified in the human genome, providing a selection of candidates for age prediction. In this study, we optimized an assay based on bisulfite conversion and pyrosequencing of 7 CpG sites located in the ELOVL2 gene. Examination of 303 blood samples collected from individuals aged 2-75 years allowed selection of the most informative site, explaining 83% of variation in age. The final linear regression model included two CpG sites in ELOVL2 and enabled age prediction with R(2)=0.859, prediction error=6.85 and mean absolute deviation MAD=5.03. Examination of a testing set of 124 blood samples (MAD=5.75) showed that 68.5% of samples were correctly predicted, assuming that chronological and predicted ages matched ± 7 years. It was found that the ELOVL2 methylation status in bloodstains had not changed significantly after 4 weeks of storage in room temperature conditions. Analysis of 45 bloodstains deposited on tissue paper after 5, 10 and 15 years of storage in room conditions indicated that although a gradual decrease of positive PCR results was observed, the general age prediction success rate remained similar and equaled 60-78%. The obtained results show that the ELOVL2 locus provides a very good source of information about human chronological age based on analysis of blood, including bloodstains, and it may constitute a powerful and reliable predictor in future forensic age estimation models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cross cultural analysis of factors associated with age at natural menopause among Latin-American immigrants to Madrid and their Spanish neighbors.

PubMed

Pérez-Alcalá, Irene; Sievert, Lynnette Leidy; Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf; Reher, David Sven

2013-01-01

In this study, age at menopause was examined in relation to demographic and life style factors among Latin-American immigrants to Madrid and their Spanish counterparts. Respondents were drawn from the Decisions at Menopause Study (2002-2003) and from a recent sample of Latin-American immigrants to Madrid (2010-2011). The final sample included 484 women after excluding women with induced menopause and use of HT. Probit analyses and Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate median age at menopause and to identify factors associated with an early age at menopause. Median estimated age at natural menopause was 52.0 years (51.2-53.0) for Spanish women and 50.5 years (49.9-51.2) for Latin-American women. Immigrant women were more likely to reach menopause at an earlier age after controlling for confounding factors. Nulliparity and lower levels of education were associated with an earlier age at menopause. A higher body mass index was associated with a later age at menopause in the Spanish model. Among the Latin-American sample, women from the Dominican Republic and women who underwent menopause before migrating were more likely to reach menopause at an earlier age. The results reported here demonstrate that early life events, including place of birth, and later life events, such as timing of migration, were associated with age at menopause. This study highlights the importance of taking into account differences in the age of onset of menopause in the multicultural population of Madrid when considering the health of women at midlife and beyond. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Perceived Discrimination and Heavy Episodic Drinking Among African-American Youth: Differences by Age and Reason for Discrimination.

PubMed

Madkour, Aubrey Spriggs; Jackson, Kristina; Wang, Heng; Miles, Thomas T; Mather, Frances; Shankar, Arti

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to examine whether associations between perceived discrimination and heavy episodic drinking (HED) vary by age and by discrimination type (e.g., racial, age, physical appearance) among African-American youth. National data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition to Adulthood Study were analyzed. Youth participated in up to four interviews (2005, 2007, 2009, 2011; n = 657) between ages 18 and 25 years. Respondents reported past-year engagement in HED (four or more drinks for females, five or more drinks for males) and frequency of discriminatory acts experienced (e.g., receiving poor service, being treated with less courtesy). Categorical latent growth curve models, including perceived discrimination types (racial, age, and physical appearance) as a time-varying predictors of HED, were run. Controls for gender, birth cohort, living arrangement in adolescence, familial wealth, parental alcohol use, and college attendance were explored. The average HED trajectory was curvilinear (increasing followed by flattening), whereas perceived discrimination remained flat with age. In models including controls, odds of HED were significantly higher than average around ages 20-21 years with greater frequency of perceived racial discrimination; associations were not significant at other ages. Discrimination attributed to age or physical appearance was not associated with HED at any age. Perceived racial discrimination may be a particularly salient risk factor for HED around the ages of transition to legal access to alcohol among African-American youth. Interventions to reduce discrimination or its impact could be targeted before this transition to ameliorate the negative outcomes associated with HED. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Atherosclerosis is associated with erectile function and lower urinary tract symptoms, especially nocturia, in middle-aged men.

PubMed

Tsujimura, Akira; Hiramatsu, Ippei; Aoki, Yusuke; Shimoyama, Hirofumi; Mizuno, Taiki; Nozaki, Taiji; Shirai, Masato; Kobayashi, Kazuhiro; Kumamoto, Yoshiaki; Horie, Shigeo

2017-06-01

Atherosclerosis is a systematic disease in which plaque builds up inside the arteries that can lead to serious problems related to quality of life (QOL). Lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS), erectile dysfunction (ED), and late-onset hypogonadism (LOH) are highly prevalent in aging men and are significantly associated with a reduced QOL. However, few questionnaire-based studies have fully examined the relation between atherosclerosis and several urological symptoms. The study comprised 303 outpatients who visited our clinic with symptoms of LOH. Several factors influencing atherosclerosis, including serum concentrations of triglyceride, fasting blood sugar, and total testosterone measured by radioimmunoassay, were investigated. We also measured brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) and assessed symptoms by specific questionnaires, including the Sexual Health Inventory for Men (SHIM), Erection Hardness Score (EHS), International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS), QOL index, and Aging Male Symptoms rating scale (AMS). Stepwise associations between the ratio of measured/age standard baPWV and clinical factors including laboratory data and the scores of the questionnaires were compared using the Jonckheere-Terpstra test for trend. The associations between the ratio of measured/age standard baPWV and each IPSS score were assessed in a multivariate linear regression model after adjustment for serum triglyceride, fasting blood sugar, and total testosterone. Regarding ED, a higher level of the ratio of measured/age standard baPWV was associated with a lower EHS, whereas no association was found with SHIM. Regarding LUTS, a higher ratio of measured/age standard baPWV was associated with a higher IPSS and QOL index. However, there was no statistically significant difference between the ratio of measured/age standard baPWV and AMS. A multivariate linear regression model showed only nocturia to be associated with the ratio of measured/age standard baPWV for each IPSS score. Atherosclerosis is associated with erectile function and LUTS, especially nocturia.

User's Guide To CHEAP0 II-Economic Analysis of Stand Prognosis Model Outputs

Treesearch

Joseph E. Horn; E. Lee Medema; Ervin G. Schuster

1986-01-01

CHEAP0 II provides supplemental economic analysis capability for users of version 5.1 of the Stand Prognosis Model, including recent regeneration and insect outbreak extensions. Although patterned after the old CHEAP0 model, CHEAP0 II has more features and analytic capabilities, especially for analysis of existing and uneven-aged stands....

The Increasing Use of Theory in Social Gerontology: 1990–2004

PubMed Central

Putney, Norella M.; Rice, Melissa; Bengtson, Vern L.

2010-01-01

Objectives. To determine how often theory is used in published research in social gerontology, compare theory use over a 10-year period (1990–1994 to 2000–2004), and identify the theories most frequently used in social gerontology research. Methods. Systematic review of articles published in eight leading journals from 2000 to 2004 (N = 1,046) and comparison with a review conducted 10 years earlier. Results. Theory was mentioned in 39% of articles published from 2000 to 2004, representing a 12% increase in the use of theory over 10 years. This increase was driven by theories outside the core sociology of aging theories identified by Bengtson, V. L., Burgess, E. O., and Parrott, T. M. (1997). Theory, explanation, and a third generation of theoretical development in social gerontology. Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences, 52B, S72–S88. The five most frequently used theories included the life course perspective, life-span developmental theories, role theory, exchange theory, and person–environment theory/ecological theories of aging. Commonly used models included stress process/stress and coping models, successful aging models, the Andersen behavioral model of health services use, models of control/self-efficacy/mastery, and disablement process models. Discussion. Theory use in social gerontology increased between 1990 and 2004, with a shift toward theories that cross disciplines. However, the majority of research in social gerontology continues to be atheoretical. Models are widely used as a supplement to or substitute for theory. Many of these models are currently being debated and elaborated, and over time, they may emerge as important theoretical contributions to social gerontology. PMID:20675614

The increasing use of theory in social gerontology: 1990-2004.

PubMed

Alley, Dawn E; Putney, Norella M; Rice, Melissa; Bengtson, Vern L

2010-09-01

To determine how often theory is used in published research in social gerontology, compare theory use over a 10-year period (1990-1994 to 2000-2004), and identify the theories most frequently used in social gerontology research. Systematic review of articles published in eight leading journals from 2000 to 2004 (N = 1,046) and comparison with a review conducted 10 years earlier. Theory was mentioned in 39% of articles published from 2000 to 2004, representing a 12% increase in the use of theory over 10 years. This increase was driven by theories outside the core sociology of aging theories identified by Bengtson, V. L., Burgess, E. O., and Parrott, T. M. (1997). Theory, explanation, and a third generation of theoretical development in social gerontology. Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences, 52B, S72-S88. The five most frequently used theories included the life course perspective, life-span developmental theories, role theory, exchange theory, and person-environment theory/ecological theories of aging. Commonly used models included stress process/stress and coping models, successful aging models, the Andersen behavioral model of health services use, models of control/self-efficacy/mastery, and disablement process models. Theory use in social gerontology increased between 1990 and 2004, with a shift toward theories that cross disciplines. However, the majority of research in social gerontology continues to be atheoretical. Models are widely used as a supplement to or substitute for theory. Many of these models are currently being debated and elaborated, and over time, they may emerge as important theoretical contributions to social gerontology.

New Symptom-Based Predictive Tool for Survival at Seven and Thirty Days Developed by Palliative Home Care Teams

PubMed Central

Bescos, Mar; Barcons, Miquel; Torrubia, Pilar; Trujillano, Javier; Requena, Antonio

2014-01-01

Abstract Aim: This study sought to develop models to predict survival at 7 and 30 days based on symptoms detected by palliative home care teams (PHCTs). Materials and methods: This prospective analytic study included a 6-month recruitment period with patient monitoring until death or 180 days after recruitment. The inclusion criteria consisted of age greater than 18 years, advanced cancer, and treatment provided by participating PHCTs between April and July 2009. The study variables included death at 7 or 30 days, survival time, age, gender, place of residence, type of tumor and extension, presence of 11 signs and symptoms measured with a 0–3 Likert scale, functional and cognitive status, and use of a subcutaneous butterfly needle. The statistics applied included a descriptive analysis according to the percentage or mean±standard deviation. For symptom comparison between surviving and nonsurviving patients, the χ2 test was used. Classification and regression tree (CART) methodology was used for model development. An internal validation system (cross-validation with 10 partitions) was used to ensure generalization of the models. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was calculated (with a 95% confidence interval) to assess the validation of the models. Results: A total of 698 patients were included. The mean age of the patients was 73.7±12 years, and 60.3% were male. The most frequent type of neoplasm was digestive (37.6%). The mean Karnofsky score was 51.8±14, the patients' cognitive status according to the Pfeiffer test was 2.6±4 errors, and 8.3% of patients required a subcutaneous butterfly needle. Each model provided 8 decision rules with a probability assignment range between 2.2% and 99.1%. The model used to predict the probability of death at 7 days included the presence of anorexia and dysphagia and the level of consciousness, and this model produced areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.88 (0.86–0.90) and 0.81 (0.79–0.83). The model used to predict the probability of death at 30 days included the presence of asthenia and anorexia and the level of consciousness, and this model produced AUCs of 0.78 (0.77–0.80) and 0.77 (0.75–0.79). Conclusion: For patients with advanced cancer treated by PHCTs, the use of classification schemes and decision trees based on specific symptoms can help clinicians predict survival at 7 and 30 days. PMID:24922117

General and substance-specific predictors of young adult nicotine dependence, alcohol use disorder, and problem behavior: replication in two samples.

PubMed

Bailey, J A; Samek, D R; Keyes, M A; Hill, K G; Hicks, B M; McGue, M; Iacono, W G; Epstein, M; Catalano, R F; Haggerty, K P; Hawkins, J D

2014-05-01

This paper presents two replications of a heuristic model for measuring environment in studies of gene-environment interplay in the etiology of young adult problem behaviors. Data were drawn from two longitudinal, U.S. studies of the etiology of substance use and related behaviors: the Raising Healthy Children study (RHC; N=1040, 47% female) and the Minnesota Twin Family Study (MTFS; N=1512, 50% female). RHC included a Pacific Northwest, school-based, community sample. MTFS included twins identified from state birth records in Minnesota. Both studies included commensurate measures of general family environment and family substance-specific environments in adolescence (RHC ages 10-18; MTFS age 18), as well as young adult nicotine dependence, alcohol and illicit drug use disorders, HIV sexual risk behavior, and antisocial behavior (RHC ages 24, 25; MTFS age 25). Results from the two samples were highly consistent and largely supported the heuristic model proposed by Bailey et al. (2011). Adolescent general family environment, family smoking environment, and family drinking environment predicted shared variance in problem behaviors in young adulthood. Family smoking environment predicted unique variance in young adult nicotine dependence. Family drinking environment did not appear to predict unique variance in young adult alcohol use disorder. Organizing environmental predictors and outcomes into general and substance-specific measures provides a useful way forward in modeling complex environments and phenotypes. Results suggest that programs aimed at preventing young adult problem behaviors should target general family environment and family smoking and drinking environments in adolescence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An "age"-structured model of hematopoietic stem cell organization with application to chronic myeloid leukemia.

PubMed

Roeder, Ingo; Herberg, Maria; Horn, Matthias

2009-04-01

Previously, we have modeled hematopoietic stem cell organization by a stochastic, single cell-based approach. Applications to different experimental systems demonstrated that this model consistently explains a broad variety of in vivo and in vitro data. A major advantage of the agent-based model (ABM) is the representation of heterogeneity within the hematopoietic stem cell population. However, this advantage comes at the price of time-consuming simulations if the systems become large. One example in this respect is the modeling of disease and treatment dynamics in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), where the realistic number of individual cells to be considered exceeds 10(6). To overcome this deficiency, without losing the representation of the inherent heterogeneity of the stem cell population, we here propose to approximate the ABM by a system of partial differential equations (PDEs). The major benefit of such an approach is its independence from the size of the system. Although this mean field approach includes a number of simplifying assumptions compared to the ABM, it retains the key structure of the model including the "age"-structure of stem cells. We show that the PDE model qualitatively and quantitatively reproduces the results of the agent-based approach.

Comparing hospital costs: what is gained by accounting for more than a case-mix index?

PubMed

Hvenegaard, Anne; Street, Andrew; Sørensen, Torben Højmark; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte

2009-08-01

We explore what effect controlling for various patient characteristics beyond a case-mix index (DRG) has on inferences drawn about the relative cost performance of hospital departments. We estimate fixed effect cost models in which 3754 patients are clustered within six Danish vascular departments. We compare a basic model including a DRG index only with models also including age and gender, health related characteristics, such as smoking status, diabetes, and American Society of Anesthesiogists score (ASA-score), and socioeconomic characteristics such as income, employment and whether the patient lives alone. We find that the DRG index is a robust and important explanatory factor and adding other routinely collected characteristics such as age and gender and other health related or socioeconomic characteristics do not seem to alter the results significantly. The results are more sensitive to choice of functional form, i.e. in particular to whether costs are log transformed. Our results suggest that the routinely collected characteristics such as DRG index, age and gender are sufficient when drawing inferences about relative cost performance. Adding health related or socioeconomic patient characteristics only slightly improves our model in terms of explanatory power but not when drawing inferences about relative performance. The results are, however, sensitive to whether costs are log transformed.

An evaluation of sex-age-kill (SAK) model performance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Skalski, John R.; Townsend, Richard L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Boyce, Mark S.; Hansen, Lonnie P.; Kammermeyer, Kent

2009-01-01

The sex-age-kill (SAK) model is widely used to estimate abundance of harvested large mammals, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Despite a long history of use, few formal evaluations of SAK performance exist. We investigated how violations of the stable age distribution and stationary population assumption, changes to male or female harvest, stochastic effects (i.e., random fluctuations in recruitment and survival), and sampling efforts influenced SAK estimation. When the simulated population had a stable age distribution and λ > 1, the SAK model underestimated abundance. Conversely, when λ < 1, the SAK overestimated abundance. When changes to male harvest were introduced, SAK estimates were opposite the true population trend. In contrast, SAK estimates were robust to changes in female harvest rates. Stochastic effects caused SAK estimates to fluctuate about their equilibrium abundance, but the effect dampened as the size of the surveyed population increased. When we considered both stochastic effects and sampling error at a deer management unit scale the resultant abundance estimates were within ±121.9% of the true population level 95% of the time. These combined results demonstrate extreme sensitivity to model violations and scale of analysis. Without changes to model formulation, the SAK model will be biased when λ ≠ 1. Furthermore, any factor that alters the male harvest rate, such as changes to regulations or changes in hunter attitudes, will bias population estimates. Sex-age-kill estimates may be precise at large spatial scales, such as the state level, but less so at the individual management unit level. Alternative models, such as statistical age-at-harvest models, which require similar data types, might allow for more robust, broad-scale demographic assessments.

Bivalve models of aging and the determination of molluscan lifespans.

PubMed

Abele, Doris; Brey, Thomas; Philipp, Eva

2009-05-01

Bivalves are newly discovered models of natural aging. This invertebrate group includes species with the longest metazoan lifespan approaching 400 y, as well as species of swimming and sessile lifestyles that live just for 1 y. Bivalves from natural populations can be aged by shell growth bands formed at regular intervals of time. This enables the study of abiotic and biotic environment factors (temperature, salinity, predator and physical disturbance) on senescence and fitness in natural populations, and distinguishes the impact of extrinsic effectors from intrinsic (genetic) determinants of animal aging. Extreme longevity of some bivalve models may help to analyze general metabolic strategies thought to be life prolonging, like the transient depression of metabolism, which forms part of natural behaviour in these species. Thus, seasonal food shortage experienced by benthic filter feeding bivalves in polar and temperate seas may mimic caloric restriction in vertebrates. Incidence of malignant neoplasms in bivalves needs to be investigated, to determine the implication of late acting mutations for bivalve longevity. Finally, bivalves are applicable models for testing the implication of heterozygosity of multiple genes for physiological tolerance, adaptability (heterozygote superiority), and life expectancy.

Fruit and vegetable consumption - the influence of aspects associated with trust in food and safety and quality of food.

PubMed

Taylor, Anne W; Coveney, John; Ward, Paul R; Henderson, Julie; Meyer, Samantha B; Pilkington, Rhiannon; Gill, Tiffany K

2012-02-01

To profile adults who eat less than the recommended servings of fruit and vegetables per day. Australia-wide population telephone survey on a random sample of the Australian population, with results analysed by univariate and multivariate models. Australia. One thousand one hundred and eight interviews, respondents' (49·3 % males) mean age was 45·12 (sd 17·63) years. Overall 54·8 % and 10·7 % were eating the recommended number of servings of fruit and vegetables. Variables included in the multivariate model indicating low fruit consumption included gender, age, employment, education and those who were less likely to consider the safety and quality of food as important. In regard to low vegetable consumption, people who were more likely to do the food shopping only 'some of the time' and have a high level of trust in groups of people such as immediate family, neighbours, doctors and different levels of government were included in the final model. They were also less likely to neither consider the safety and quality of food as important nor trust organisations/institutions such as the press, television and politicians. In the final model depicting both low fruit and low vegetable servings, sex, age and a low level of importance with regard to safety and quality of food were included. To increase fruit and vegetable consumption, research into a broad range of determinants associated with behaviours should be coupled with a deeper understanding of the process associated with changing behaviours. While levels of trust are related to behaviour change, knowledge and attitudes about aspects associated with safety and quality of food are also of importance.

Aging, mobility impairments and subjective wellbeing.

PubMed

Freedman, Vicki A; Carr, Deborah; Cornman, Jennifer C; Lucas, Richard E

2017-10-01

Wellbeing is often described as U-shaped over the life course, suggesting an apparent paradox that wellbeing remains high at older ages despite increases in impairments. We explore associations among age, lower body impairments-one of the most common late-life impairments-and three measures of wellbeing: life satisfaction, emotional wellbeing and somatic wellbeing. We hypothesize that age effects are positive, become stronger once lower body impairments are controlled, and are concentrated among those who have maintained their mobility. Net of confounding factors, we hypothesize that lower body impairments are associated with worse wellbeing and these effects diminish with advancing age. We analyze the 2013 Disability and Use of Time supplement to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (N = 1607 adults ages 60 and older). We estimate nested regression models that include age, severity of lower body impairments and confounding demographic, psychological, and socioeconomic factors and activities; test age-impairment interactions; and estimate age- and impairment-stratified models. Positive age effects were observed after controlling for lower body impairments for life satisfaction (β = 0.90; p < 0.05), although statistical significance weakened (p = 0.07) in fully adjusted models. For emotional wellbeing, adjusted age effects were negative (β = -0.05; p < 0.05) and were concentrated among those with limitations (β = -0.14; p < 0.01). For all three outcomes, severity of impairments reduced wellbeing in adjusted models. These effects were strongest for somatic wellbeing, especially for 65-74 year olds. Our study challenges the notion that wellbeing is U-shaped throughout the life course and underscores the critical role of mobility across wellbeing domains in later life. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Practical alternatives to chronic caloric restriction for optimizing vascular function with ageing

PubMed Central

Seals, Douglas R.

2016-01-01

Abstract Calorie restriction (CR) in the absence of malnutrition exerts a multitude of physiological benefits with ageing in model organisms and in humans including improvements in vascular function. Despite the well‐known benefits of chronic CR, long‐term energy restriction is not likely to be a feasible healthy lifestyle strategy in humans due to poor sustained adherence, and presents additional concerns if applied to normal weight older adults. This review summarizes what is known about the effects of CR on vascular function with ageing including the underlying molecular ‘energy‐ and nutrient‐sensing’ mechanisms, and discusses the limited but encouraging evidence for alternative pharmacological and lifestyle interventions that may improve vascular function with ageing by mimicking the beneficial effects of long‐term CR. PMID:27641062

Generic biomass functions for Norway spruce in Central Europe--a meta-analysis approach toward prediction and uncertainty estimation.

PubMed

Wirth, Christian; Schumacher, Jens; Schulze, Ernst-Detlef

2004-02-01

To facilitate future carbon and nutrient inventories, we used mixed-effect linear models to develop new generic biomass functions for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in Central Europe. We present both the functions and their respective variance-covariance matrices and illustrate their application for biomass prediction and uncertainty estimation for Norway spruce trees ranging widely in size, age, competitive status and site. We collected biomass data for 688 trees sampled in 102 stands by 19 authors. The total number of trees in the "base" model data sets containing the predictor variables diameter at breast height (D), height (H), age (A), site index (SI) and site elevation (HSL) varied according to compartment (roots: n = 114, stem: n = 235, dry branches: n = 207, live branches: n = 429 and needles: n = 551). "Core" data sets with about 40% fewer trees could be extracted containing the additional predictor variables crown length and social class. A set of 43 candidate models representing combinations of lnD, lnH, lnA, SI and HSL, including second-order polynomials and interactions, was established. The categorical variable "author" subsuming mainly methodological differences was included as a random effect in a mixed linear model. The Akaike Information Criterion was used for model selection. The best models for stem, root and branch biomass contained only combinations of D, H and A as predictors. More complex models that included site-related variables resulted for needle biomass. Adding crown length as a predictor for needles, branches and roots reduced both the bias and the confidence interval of predictions substantially. Applying the best models to a test data set of 17 stands ranging in age from 16 to 172 years produced realistic allocation patterns at the tree and stand levels. The 95% confidence intervals (% of mean prediction) were highest for crown compartments (approximately +/- 12%) and lowest for stem biomass (approximately +/- 5%), and within each compartment, they were highest for the youngest and oldest stands, respectively.

Stature estimation from the lengths of the growing foot-a study on North Indian adolescents.

PubMed

Krishan, Kewal; Kanchan, Tanuj; Passi, Neelam; DiMaggio, John A

2012-12-01

Stature estimation is considered as one of the basic parameters of the investigation process in unknown and commingled human remains in medico-legal case work. Race, age and sex are the other parameters which help in this process. Stature estimation is of the utmost importance as it completes the biological profile of a person along with the other three parameters of identification. The present research is intended to formulate standards for stature estimation from foot dimensions in adolescent males from North India and study the pattern of foot growth during the growing years. 154 male adolescents from the Northern part of India were included in the study. Besides stature, five anthropometric measurements that included the length of the foot from each toe (T1, T2, T3, T4, and T5 respectively) to pternion were measured on each foot. The data was analyzed statistically using Student's t-test, Pearson's correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis for estimation of stature and growth of foot during ages 13-18 years. Correlation coefficients between stature and all the foot measurements were found to be highly significant and positively correlated. Linear regression models and multiple regression models (with age as a co-variable) were derived for estimation of stature from the different measurements of the foot. Multiple regression models (with age as a co-variable) estimate stature with greater accuracy than the regression models for 13-18 years age group. The study shows the growth pattern of feet in North Indian adolescents and indicates that anthropometric measurements of the foot and its segments are valuable in estimation of stature in growing individuals of that population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Status Report - Cane Fiberboard Properties And Degradation Rates For Storage Of The 9975 Shipping Package In KAC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daugherty, W.

Thermal, mechanical and physical properties have been measured on cane fiberboard samples following accelerated aging for up to approximately 10 years. The aging environments have included elevated temperature < 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. The results from this testing have been analyzed, and aging models fit to the data. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in KAC, these models allow developmentmore » of service life predictions.« less

[Risk factor analysis of the patients with solitary pulmonary nodules and establishment of a prediction model for the probability of malignancy].

PubMed

Wang, X; Xu, Y H; Du, Z Y; Qian, Y J; Xu, Z H; Chen, R; Shi, M H

2018-02-23

Objective: This study aims to analyze the relationship among the clinical features, radiologic characteristics and pathological diagnosis in patients with solitary pulmonary nodules, and establish a prediction model for the probability of malignancy. Methods: Clinical data of 372 patients with solitary pulmonary nodules who underwent surgical resection with definite postoperative pathological diagnosis were retrospectively analyzed. In these cases, we collected clinical and radiologic features including gender, age, smoking history, history of tumor, family history of cancer, the location of lesion, ground-glass opacity, maximum diameter, calcification, vessel convergence sign, vacuole sign, pleural indentation, speculation and lobulation. The cases were divided to modeling group (268 cases) and validation group (104 cases). A new prediction model was established by logistic regression analying the data from modeling group. Then the data of validation group was planned to validate the efficiency of the new model, and was compared with three classical models(Mayo model, VA model and LiYun model). With the calculated probability values for each model from validation group, SPSS 22.0 was used to draw the receiver operating characteristic curve, to assess the predictive value of this new model. Results: 112 benign SPNs and 156 malignant SPNs were included in modeling group. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, history of tumor, ground -glass opacity, maximum diameter, and speculation were independent predictors of malignancy in patients with SPN( P <0.05). We calculated a prediction model for the probability of malignancy as follow: p =e(x)/(1+ e(x)), x=-4.8029-0.743×gender+ 0.057×age+ 1.306×history of tumor+ 1.305×ground-glass opacity+ 0.051×maximum diameter+ 1.043×speculation. When the data of validation group was added to the four-mathematical prediction model, The area under the curve of our mathematical prediction model was 0.742, which is greater than other models (Mayo 0.696, VA 0.634, LiYun 0.681), while the differences between any two of the four models were not significant ( P >0.05). Conclusions: Age of patient, gender, history of tumor, ground-glass opacity, maximum diameter and speculation are independent predictors of malignancy in patients with solitary pulmonary nodule. This logistic regression prediction mathematic model is not inferior to those classical models in estimating the prognosis of SPNs.

Temperament factors and dimensional, latent bifactor models of child psychopathology: Transdiagnostic and specific associations in two youth samples.

PubMed

Hankin, Benjamin L; Davis, Elysia Poggi; Snyder, Hannah; Young, Jami F; Glynn, Laura M; Sandman, Curt A

2017-06-01

Common emotional and behavioral symptoms co-occur and are associated with core temperament factors. This study investigated links between temperament and dimensional, latent psychopathology factors, including a general common psychopathology factor (p factor) and specific latent internalizing and externalizing liabilities, as captured by a bifactor model, in two independent samples of youth. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that temperament factors of negative affectivity (NA), positive affectivity (PA), and effortful control (EC) could serve as both transdiagnostic and specific risks in relation to recent bifactor models of child psychopathology. Sample 1 included 571 youth (average age 13.6, SD =2.37, range 9.3-17.5) with both youth and parent report. Sample 2 included 554 preadolescent children (average age 7.7, SD =1.35, range =5-11 years) with parent report. Structural equation modeling showed that the latent bifactor models fit in both samples. Replicated in both samples, the p factor was associated with lower EC and higher NA (transdiagnostic risks). Several specific risks replicated in both samples after controlling for co-occurring symptoms via the p factor: internalizing was associated with higher NA and lower PA, lower EC related to externalizing problems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Four-Part Framework to Meet the Responsibilities of Higher Education to Gerontology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ehrlich, Ira F.; Ehrlich, Phyllis D.

1976-01-01

This article delineates a four-part educational framework including specific ways in which higher-learning institutions have a responsibility to the aged consumer, related educational systems, and service practitioners. It suggests that constructive use of the model could enhance the quality of life for the aging, and for the rest of society.…

Models of Vocabulary Acquisition: Direct Tests and Text-Derived Simulations of Vocabulary Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biemiller, Andrew; Rosenstein, Mark; Sparks, Randall; Landauer, Thomas K.; Foltz, Peter W.

2014-01-01

Determining word meanings that ought to be taught or introduced is important for educators. A sequence for vocabulary growth can be inferred from many sources, including testing children's knowledge of word meanings at various ages, predicting from print frequency, or adult-recalled Age of Acquisition. A new approach, Word Maturity, is based on…

Dental age estimation of growing children by measurement of open apices: A Malaysian formula

PubMed Central

Cugati, Navaneetha; Kumaresan, Ramesh; Srinivasan, Balamanikanda; Karthikeyan, Priyadarshini

2015-01-01

Background: Age estimation is of prime importance in forensic science and clinical dentistry. Age estimation based on teeth development is one reliable approach. Many radiographic methods are proposed on the Western population for estimating dental age, and a similar assessment was found to be inadequate in Malaysian population. Hence, this study aims at formulating a regression model for dental age estimation in Malaysian children population using Cameriere's method. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomographs of 421 Malaysian children aged between 5 and 16 years involving all the three ethnic origins were digitalized and analyzed using Cameriere's method of age estimation. The subjects’ age was modeled as a function of the morphological variables, gender (g), ethnicity, sum of normalized open apices (s), number of tooth with completed root formation (N0) and the first-order interaction between s and N0. Results: The variables that contributed significantly to the fit were included in the regression model, yielding the following formula: Age = 11.368-0.345g + 0.553No -1.096s - 0.380s.No, where g is a variable, 1 for males and 2 for females. The equation explained 87.1% of total deviance. Conclusion: The results obtained insist on reframing the original Cameriere's formula to suit the population of the nation specifically. Further studies are to be conducted to evaluate the applicability of this formula on a larger sample size. PMID:26816464

What is the evidence for stress resistance and slowed aging?

PubMed

Hamilton, Karyn L; Miller, Benjamin F

2016-09-01

Stress resistance is thought to contribute to slowed-aging, although cause and effect between the two is controversial. On October 30, 2015 researchers gathered at the Front Range Consortium on Stress Resistance and Slowed Aging in Fort Collins, CO, to discuss what the current evidence is that stress resistance imparts slowed aging. Included in that discussion was defining stress resistance, distinguishing if there are key stresses to which resistance imparts slowed aging, what models aid in our understanding of stress resistance and aging, and how to translate that knowledge into slowed aging treatment. The following article is a brief summary of that discussion and recommendations for moving forward. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

In Silico Approaches and the Role of Ontologies in Aging Research

PubMed Central

Boerries, Melanie; Busch, Hauke; de Grey, Aubrey; Hahn, Udo; Hiller, Thomas; Hoeflich, Andreas; Jansen, Ludger; Janssens, Georges E.; Kaleta, Christoph; Meinema, Anne C.; Schäuble, Sascha; Simm, Andreas; Schofield, Paul N.; Smith, Barry; Sühnel, Juergen; Vera, Julio; Wagner, Wolfgang; Wönne, Eva C.; Wuttke, Daniel

2013-01-01

Abstract The 2013 Rostock Symposium on Systems Biology and Bioinformatics in Aging Research was again dedicated to dissecting the aging process using in silico means. A particular focus was on ontologies, because these are a key technology to systematically integrate heterogeneous information about the aging process. Related topics were databases and data integration. Other talks tackled modeling issues and applications, the latter including talks focused on marker development and cellular stress as well as on diseases, in particular on diseases of kidney and skin. PMID:24188080

A Review of Transformer Aging and Control Strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil Gup; Kirkham, Harold; Sivaraman, Deepak

Transformer aging is an important challenge in power system. Distribution transformers themselves are minimally controllable, but smart meters provide excellent, new insights into electrical loads, which insights can be used to understand and mitigate transformer aging. The nature of transformer loads is changing with the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) and electric vehicles (EVs). This paper first reviews factors that influence the aging of distribution transformers, including root causes of transformer failure. Existing and proposed load control methods are then discussed. A distribution model is introduced to help evaluate potential control methods.

Ageing induced vascular smooth muscle cell senescence in atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Uryga, Anna K; Bennett, Martin R

2016-04-15

Atherosclerosis is a disease of ageing in that its incidence and prevalence increase with age. However, atherosclerosis is also associated with biological ageing, manifest by a number of typical hallmarks of ageing in the atherosclerotic plaque. Thus, accelerated biological ageing may be superimposed on the effects of chronological ageing in atherosclerosis. Tissue ageing is seen in all cells that comprise the plaque, but particularly in vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs). Hallmarks of ageing include evidence of cell senescence, DNA damage (including telomere attrition), mitochondrial dysfunction, a pro-inflammatory secretory phenotype, defects in proteostasis, epigenetic changes, deregulated nutrient sensing, and exhaustion of progenitor cells. In this model, initial damage to DNA (genomic, telomeric, mitochondrial and epigenetic changes) results in a number of cellular responses (cellular senescence, deregulated nutrient sensing and defects in proteostasis). Ultimately, ongoing damage and attempts at repair by continued proliferation overwhelm reparative capacity, causing loss of specialised cell functions, cell death and inflammation. This review summarises the evidence for accelerated biological ageing in atherosclerosis, the functional consequences of cell ageing on cells comprising the plaque, and the causal role that VSMC senescence plays in atherogenesis. © 2015 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2015 The Physiological Society.

Aging in the colonial chordate, Botryllus schlosseri.

PubMed

Munday, Roma; Rodriguez, Delany; Di Maio, Alessandro; Kassmer, Susannah; Braden, Brian; Taketa, Daryl A; Langenbacher, Adam; De Tomaso, Anthony

2015-01-30

What mechanisms underlie aging? One theory, the wear-and-tear model, attributes aging to progressive deterioration in the molecular and cellular machinery which eventually lead to death through the disruption of physiological homeostasis. The second suggests that life span is genetically programmed, and aging may be derived from intrinsic processes which enforce a non-random, terminal time interval for the survivability of the organism. We are studying an organism that demonstrates both properties: the colonial ascidian, Botryllus schlosseri. Botryllus is a member of the Tunicata, the sister group to the vertebrates, and has a number of life history traits which make it an excellent model for studies on aging. First, Botryllus has a colonial life history, and grows by a process of asexual reproduction during which entire bodies, including all somatic and germline lineages, regenerate every week, resulting in a colony of genetically identical individuals. Second, previous studies of lifespan in genetically distinct Botryllus lineages suggest that a direct, heritable basis underlying mortality exists that is unlinked to reproductive effort and other life history traits. Here we will review recent efforts to take advantage of the unique life history traits of B. schlosseri and develop it into a robust model for aging research.

Development of the Thai healthy aging model: A grounded theory study.

PubMed

Thiamwong, Ladda; McManus, Michael S; Suwanno, Jom

2013-06-01

To develop a model of healthy aging from the perspective of Thais, a grounded theory approach, including in-depth interviews and focus groups, was used. A purposive sample of 39 community-dwelling adults aged 40-85 years old was interviewed. The Thai healthy aging model composed of three themes: normality, nature, and dharma. In Thai, they are called tham-ma-da, tham-ma-chat, and tham-ma, or "Thai 3Ts". The theme of normality encompasses subthemes of staying physically active by being involved in plenty of physical activities, and being mentally active with creative and thoughtful hobbies and work. The theme of nature encompasses subthemes of living simply and being careful with money. The theme of dharma encompasses subthemes of enjoyment through helping family and participating in community activities, staying away from stress and worries by talking openly and honestly with someone, making merit, and helping other people without expecting anything in return. A greater understanding of healthy aging is a benefit for older adults and healthcare providers in an intervention-design process. Research can contribute valuable information to shape policy for healthy aging as well. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Aging in the colonial chordate, Botryllus schlosseri

PubMed Central

Munday, Roma; Rodriguez, Delany; Di Maio, Alessandro; Kassmer, Susannah; Braden, Brian; Taketa, Daryl A.; Langenbacher, Adam; De Tomaso, Anthony

2015-01-01

What mechanisms underlie aging? One theory, the wear-and-tear model, attributes aging to progressive deterioration in the molecular and cellular machinery which eventually lead to death through the disruption of physiological homeostasis. The second suggests that life span is genetically programmed, and aging may be derived from intrinsic processes which enforce a non-random, terminal time interval for the survivability of the organism. We are studying an organism that demonstrates both properties: the colonial ascidian, Botryllus schlosseri. Botryllus is a member of the Tunicata, the sister group to the vertebrates, and has a number of life history traits which make it an excellent model for studies on aging. First, Botryllus has a colonial life history, and grows by a process of asexual reproduction during which entire bodies, including all somatic and germline lineages, regenerate every week, resulting in a colony of genetically identical individuals. Second, previous studies of lifespan in genetically distinct Botryllus lineages suggest that a direct, heritable basis underlying mortality exists that is unlinked to reproductive effort and other life history traits. Here we will review recent efforts to take advantage of the unique life history traits of B. schlosseri and develop it into a robust model for aging research. PMID:26136620

Age of first arrest varies by gambling status in a cohort of young adults

PubMed Central

Martins, Silvia S.; Lee, Grace P.; Santaella, Julian; Liu, Weiwei; Ialongo, Nicholas S.; Storr, Carla L.

2015-01-01

Background and objectives To describe the association between social and problem gambling and first criminal arrest by age 23 in a cohort of urban, mainly African-American youth. Methods: Data for this study was derived from several annual interviews being completed on a community sample of 617 participants during late adolescence until age 23. Information on gambling status, engagement in deviant behaviors, illegal drug use, and arrest history were collected through yearly interviews. Analysis was carried out using Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazard models and simple and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Results More problem gamblers had been arrested before age 23 than social gamblers and non-gamblers, i.e. 65% of problem gamblers were arrested before age 23, compared to 38% of social gamblers and 24% non-gamblers. Social gambling was only significantly associated with the hazard of first arrest by age 23 in the unadjusted model (HR: 1.6, p<.001), but not after adjustment for covariates (HR: 1.1, p=0.47). Problem gambling was significantly associated with the hazard of first arrest by age 23 years in the unadjusted (HR: 3.6,p<.001) and adjusted models (HR:1.6, p=0.05). Conclusions and Scientific Significance Problem gambling was significantly associated with earlier age of being arrested. Dilution effects after adjustment for several deviant behaviors and illegal drug use by age 17 suggest that youth exposed to certain common factors may result in engagement in multiple risky behaviors, including problem gambling. Studies are needed to investigate the developmental pathways that lead to these combined behaviors among youth. PMID:24628694

Advanced Maternal Age and the Risk of Low Birth Weight and Preterm Delivery: a Within-Family Analysis Using Finnish Population Registers.

PubMed

Goisis, Alice; Remes, Hanna; Barclay, Kieron; Martikainen, Pekka; Myrskylä, Mikko

2017-12-01

Advanced maternal age at birth is considered a major risk factor for birth outcomes. It is unclear to what extent this association is confounded by maternal characteristics. To test whether advanced maternal age at birth independently increases the risk of low birth weight (<2,500 g) and preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation), we compared between-family models (children born to different mothers at different ages) with within-family models (children born to the same mother at different ages). The latter procedure reduces confounding by unobserved parental characteristics that are shared by siblings. We used Finnish population registers, including 124,098 children born during 1987-2000. When compared with maternal ages 25-29 years in between-family models, maternal ages of 35-39 years and ≥40 years were associated with percentage increases of 1.1 points (95% confidence intervals: 0.8, 1.4) and 2.2 points (95% confidence intervals: 1.4, 2.9), respectively, in the probability of low birth weight. The associations are similar for the risk of preterm delivery. In within-family models, the relationship between advanced maternal age and low birth weight or preterm birth is statistically and substantively negligible. In Finland, advanced maternal age is not independently associated with the risk of low birth weight or preterm delivery among mothers who have had at least 2 live births. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Modeling Peat Ages Using 7Be Data to Account for Downwash of 210Pb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manies, K.; Fuller, C.; Jones, M.

2016-12-01

In order to determine the amount of peat, and thus carbon, which has accumulated since the last thaw event, we are interested in dating the surface layers of boreal thermokarst bogs. However, there can often be a mismatch by several decades between dates obtained using 210Pb, 14C, or 137Cs. We found that 210Pb-based dates were almost always younger than 14C-based dates. One of the limitations often cited regarding the use of 210Pb dating for peatlands is the potential for this radionuclide to be transported down the soil profile, biasing the mean accumulation rate (MAR) towards higher values which, in turn, results in younger ages at a specific horizon. 7Be, which has similar depositional behaviors as 210Pb but a much shorter half-life (53.22 days), can be used to help determine if there is movement of 210Pb through surface layers and the depths to which 210Pb-bearing particles are transported (over the mean life of 7Be). These data can then be used in new models, such as the Linked Radionuclide aCcumulation model (LRC; Landis et al., 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.gca.2016.02.2013), which account for 210Pb downwash when calculating soil horizon ages. To this end, we measured 7Be within a bog four times over the growing season. 7Be was found to 4 cm in May, reached its maximum depth of penetration in July (7 cm), and then receded again to 4 cm. The maximum integrated 7Be activity was also found in July. This pattern is similar to other studies which found 7Be deposition decreased over the rainy season. Next, we will calculate peat ages with models that include downwash of 210Pb, the depths of which will be based on the penetration depth of 7Be. These ages will be compared to 210Pb ages obtained with both the Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) and Constant Flux - Constant Sedimentation (CF:CS) models and to 137Cs- and 14C-derived ages. We anticipate that dates based on models that include some transport of 210Pb into the soil profile will provide more accurate peat formation dates and allow for more accurate carbon accumulation rates.

Old-Age Disability and Wealth among Return Mexican Migrants from the United States

PubMed Central

Wong, Rebeca; Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Cesar

2012-01-01

Objective To examine the old-age consequences of international migration with a focus on disability and wealth from the perspective of the origin country. Methods Analysis sample includes persons aged 60+ from the Mexican Health and Aging Study, a national survey of older-adults in Mexico in 2001. Univariate methods are used to present a comparative profile of return migrants. Multivariate models are estimated for physical disability and wealth. Results Gender differences are profound. Return migrant women are more likely to be disabled while men are wealthier than comparable older adults in Mexico. Discussion Compared to current older adults, younger cohorts of Mexico-U.S. migrants increasingly include women, and more migrants seem likely to remain in the United States rather than return, thus more research will be needed on the old-age conditions of migrants in both countries. PMID:20876848

Tree Biomass Allocation and Its Model Additivity for Casuarina equisetifolia in a Tropical Forest of Hainan Island, China.

PubMed

Xue, Yang; Yang, Zhongyang; Wang, Xiaoyan; Lin, Zhipan; Li, Dunxi; Su, Shaofeng

2016-01-01

Casuarina equisetifolia is commonly planted and used in the construction of coastal shelterbelt protection in Hainan Island. Thus, it is critical to accurately estimate the tree biomass of Casuarina equisetifolia L. for forest managers to evaluate the biomass stock in Hainan. The data for this work consisted of 72 trees, which were divided into three age groups: young forest, middle-aged forest, and mature forest. The proportion of biomass from the trunk significantly increased with age (P<0.05). However, the biomass of the branch and leaf decreased, and the biomass of the root did not change. To test whether the crown radius (CR) can improve biomass estimates of C. equisetifolia, we introduced CR into the biomass models. Here, six models were used to estimate the biomass of each component, including the trunk, the branch, the leaf, and the root. In each group, we selected one model among these six models for each component. The results showed that including the CR greatly improved the model performance and reduced the error, especially for the young and mature forests. In addition, to ensure biomass additivity, the selected equation for each component was fitted as a system of equations using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). The SUR method not only gave efficient and accurate estimates but also achieved the logical additivity. The results in this study provide a robust estimation of tree biomass components and total biomass over three groups of C. equisetifolia.

Tree Biomass Allocation and Its Model Additivity for Casuarina equisetifolia in a Tropical Forest of Hainan Island, China

PubMed Central

Xue, Yang; Yang, Zhongyang; Wang, Xiaoyan; Lin, Zhipan; Li, Dunxi; Su, Shaofeng

2016-01-01

Casuarina equisetifolia is commonly planted and used in the construction of coastal shelterbelt protection in Hainan Island. Thus, it is critical to accurately estimate the tree biomass of Casuarina equisetifolia L. for forest managers to evaluate the biomass stock in Hainan. The data for this work consisted of 72 trees, which were divided into three age groups: young forest, middle-aged forest, and mature forest. The proportion of biomass from the trunk significantly increased with age (P<0.05). However, the biomass of the branch and leaf decreased, and the biomass of the root did not change. To test whether the crown radius (CR) can improve biomass estimates of C. equisetifolia, we introduced CR into the biomass models. Here, six models were used to estimate the biomass of each component, including the trunk, the branch, the leaf, and the root. In each group, we selected one model among these six models for each component. The results showed that including the CR greatly improved the model performance and reduced the error, especially for the young and mature forests. In addition, to ensure biomass additivity, the selected equation for each component was fitted as a system of equations using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). The SUR method not only gave efficient and accurate estimates but also achieved the logical additivity. The results in this study provide a robust estimation of tree biomass components and total biomass over three groups of C. equisetifolia. PMID:27002822

The creation and evaluation of a model to simulate the probability of conception in seasonal-calving pasture-based dairy heifers.

PubMed

Fenlon, Caroline; O'Grady, Luke; Butler, Stephen; Doherty, Michael L; Dunnion, John

2017-01-01

Herd fertility in pasture-based dairy farms is a key driver of farm economics. Models for predicting nulliparous reproductive outcomes are rare, but age, genetics, weight, and BCS have been identified as factors influencing heifer conception. The aim of this study was to create a simulation model of heifer conception to service with thorough evaluation. Artificial Insemination service records from two research herds and ten commercial herds were provided to build and evaluate the models. All were managed as spring-calving pasture-based systems. The factors studied were related to age, genetics, and time of service. The data were split into training and testing sets and bootstrapping was used to train the models. Logistic regression (with and without random effects) and generalised additive modelling were selected as the model-building techniques. Two types of evaluation were used to test the predictive ability of the models: discrimination and calibration. Discrimination, which includes sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and ROC analysis, measures a model's ability to distinguish between positive and negative outcomes. Calibration measures the accuracy of the predicted probabilities with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, calibration plot and calibration error. After data cleaning and the removal of services with missing values, 1396 services remained to train the models and 597 were left for testing. Age, breed, genetic predicted transmitting ability for calving interval, month and year were significant in the multivariate models. The regression models also included an interaction between age and month. Year within herd was a random effect in the mixed regression model. Overall prediction accuracy was between 77.1% and 78.9%. All three models had very high sensitivity, but low specificity. The two regression models were very well-calibrated. The mean absolute calibration errors were all below 4%. Because the models were not adept at identifying unsuccessful services, they are not suggested for use in predicting the outcome of individual heifer services. Instead, they are useful for the comparison of services with different covariate values or as sub-models in whole-farm simulations. The mixed regression model was identified as the best model for prediction, as the random effects can be ignored and the other variables can be easily obtained or simulated.

Age-related differences in factors associated with cervical spine injuries in children.

PubMed

Leonard, Julie C; Jaffe, David M; Olsen, Cody S; Kuppermann, Nathan

2015-04-01

The Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) investigators previously identified risk factors associated with cervical spine injuries (CSIs) in children. Anatomic maturation and age-related variation in mechanisms of injury suggested the need to explore factors separately for younger versus older children. The purpose of this substudy was to investigate CSI risk factors in age subgroups within the PECARN study cohort. This was an age-stratified case-control analysis of children younger than 16 years presenting to 17 PECARN hospitals following blunt trauma between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2004. Data were abstracted for children with CSIs and randomly selected CSI-free children. Age-stratified multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with CSI within three age groups: younger than 2, 2 to 7, and 8 to 15 years. Sensitivity and specificity for CSI were estimated for both the age-specific and original (altered mental status, focal neurologic findings, neck pain, torticollis, substantial torso injury, predisposing conditions, diving, and high-risk motor vehicle crash [MVC]) models. Among 540 children with CSIs, 27 were younger than 2 years, 140 were 2 to 7 years, and 373 were 8 to 15 years. Focal neurologic deficits and high-risk MVC were associated with CSIs in all age-specific models. Other age-specific factors included the following: younger than 2 years, none; 2 to 7 years, altered mental status, neck pain, torticollis; and 8 to 15 years, altered mental status, neck pain, diving. Age-specific models had comparable sensitivity to the original model among the older groups, but had lower sensitivity and higher specificity among the youngest children. While this analysis supports the original PECARN model for CSI, there were subtle age variations in factors associated with CSIs in children that warrant future investigation. © 2015 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Dynamic strain aging and plastic instabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mesarovic, Sinisa Dj.

1995-05-01

A constitutive model proposed by McCormick [(1988) Theory of flow localization due to dynamic strain ageing. Acta. Metall.36, 3061-3067] based on dislocation-solute interaction and describing dynamic strain aging behavior, is analyzed for the simple loading case of uniaxial tension. The model is rate dependent and includes a time-varying state variable, representing the local concentration of the impurity atoms at dislocations. Stability of the system and its post-instability behavior are considered. The methods used include analytical and numerical stability and bifurcation analysis with a numerical continuation technique. Yield point behavior and serrated yielding are found to result for well defined intervals of temperature and strain rate. Serrated yielding emerges as a branch of periodic solutions of the relaxation oscillation type, similar to frictional stick-slip. The distinction between the temporal and spatial (loss of homogeneity of strain) instability is emphasized. It is found that a critical machine stiffness exists above which a purely temporal instability cannot occur. The results are compared to the available experimental data.

Gardening and age-related weight gain: Results from a cross-sectional survey of Denver residents.

PubMed

Litt, Jill S; Lambert, Jeffrey Richard; Glueck, Deborah H

2017-12-01

This study examined whether gardening modifies the association between age and body mass index (BMI). We used data from the Neighborhood Environments and Health Survey, which was conducted in Denver (N = 469) between 2006 and 2007. We fit two general linear mixed models. The base model had BMI in kg/m 2 as the outcome, and age, an indicator variable for non-gardening status and the age-by-non-gardening status interaction as predictors. The adjusted model included as covariates the potential confounders of education, ethnicity and self-reported health. We assessed self-selection bias and confounding. BMI was 27.18 kg/m 2 for non-gardeners, 25.62 kg/m 2 for home gardeners, and 24.17 kg/m 2 for community gardeners. In the base model, a statistically significant association was observed between age and BMI for non-gardeners but not for the combined community and home gardening group (F = 9.27, ndf = 1, ddf = 441, p = 0.0025). In the adjusted model, the association between age and BMI in non-gardeners was not statistically significant (F = 1.72, ndf = 1, ddf = 431, p = 0.1908). Gardeners differed on social and demographic factors when compared to non-gardeners. The results from the base model are consistent with the hypothesis that gardening might offset age-related weight gain. However, the cross-sectional design does not permit differentiation of true causal effects from the possible effects of bias and confounding. As a follow-up study, to remove bias and confounding, we are conducting a randomized clinical trial of community gardening in Denver.

Around the world, adolescence is a time of heightened sensation seeking and immature self-regulation.

PubMed

Steinberg, Laurence; Icenogle, Grace; Shulman, Elizabeth P; Breiner, Kaitlyn; Chein, Jason; Bacchini, Dario; Chang, Lei; Chaudhary, Nandita; Giunta, Laura Di; Dodge, Kenneth A; Fanti, Kostas A; Lansford, Jennifer E; Malone, Patrick S; Oburu, Paul; Pastorelli, Concetta; Skinner, Ann T; Sorbring, Emma; Tapanya, Sombat; Tirado, Liliana Maria Uribe; Alampay, Liane Peña; Al-Hassan, Suha M; Takash, Hanan M S

2018-03-01

The dual systems model of adolescent risk-taking portrays the period as one characterized by a combination of heightened sensation seeking and still-maturing self-regulation, but most tests of this model have been conducted in the United States or Western Europe. In the present study, these propositions are tested in an international sample of more than 5000 individuals between ages 10 and 30 years from 11 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas, using a multi-method test battery that includes both self-report and performance-based measures of both constructs. Consistent with the dual systems model, sensation seeking increased between preadolescence and late adolescence, peaked at age 19, and declined thereafter, whereas self-regulation increased steadily from preadolescence into young adulthood, reaching a plateau between ages 23 and 26. Although there were some variations in the magnitude of the observed age trends, the developmental patterns were largely similar across countries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A grounded theory of social participation among older women living with HIV.

PubMed

Siemon, Jennifer S; Blenkhorn, Lisa; Wilkins, Seanne; O'Brien, Kelly K; Solomon, Patricia E

2013-10-01

As adults age with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the role for rehabilitation continues to emerge. Understanding how social participation is affected among women aging with HIV can inform occupational therapy assessment and treatment. Our purpose was to develop a theoretical model that describes the experiences of social participation from the perspective of older women living with HIV. A grounded theory methodological approach was utilized. We conducted interviews with 20 women living with HIV, age 50 or older, to explore various aspects of social participation, including self-care, relationships with others, and access to health and social services. Emergent themes informed the theoretical model. The theoretical model comprises four concepts related to social participation: social engagement, social isolation, contrasting perceptions about factors variably influencing participation, and contextual influences that may enhance or hinder social participation. Women aging with HIV experience social participation as a dynamic process involving social engagement and isolation. Contextual influences may promote and impede social participation.

Comparative Approaches to Understanding the Relation Between Aging and Physical Function

PubMed Central

Cesari, Matteo; Seals, Douglas R.; Shively, Carol A.; Carter, Christy S.

2016-01-01

Despite dedicated efforts to identify interventions to delay aging, most promising interventions yielding dramatic life-span extension in animal models of aging are often ineffective when translated to clinical trials. This may be due to differences in primary outcomes between species and difficulties in determining the optimal clinical trial paradigms for translation. Measures of physical function, including brief standardized testing batteries, are currently being proposed as biomarkers of aging in humans, are predictive of adverse health events, disability, and mortality, and are commonly used as functional outcomes for clinical trials. Motor outcomes are now being incorporated into preclinical testing, a positive step toward enhancing our ability to translate aging interventions to clinical trials. To further these efforts, we begin a discussion of physical function and disability assessment across species, with special emphasis on mice, rats, monkeys, and man. By understanding how physical function is assessed in humans, we can tailor measurements in animals to better model those outcomes to establish effective, standardized translational functional assessments with aging. PMID:25910845

On the specificity of face cognition compared with general cognitive functioning across adult age.

PubMed

Hildebrandt, Andrea; Wilhelm, Oliver; Schmiedek, Florian; Herzmann, Grit; Sommer, Werner

2011-09-01

Face cognition is considered a specific human ability, clearly differentiable from general cognitive functioning. Its specificity is primarily supported by cognitive-experimental and neuroimaging research, but recently also from an individual differences perspective. However, no comprehensive behavioral data are available, which would allow estimating lifespan changes of the covariance structure of face-cognition abilities and general cognitive functioning as well as age-differences in face cognition after accounting for interindividual variability in general cognition. The present study aimed to fill this gap. In an age-heterogeneous (18-82 years) sample of 448 adults, we found no factorial dedifferentiation between face cognition and general cognition. Age-related differences in face memory were still salient after taking into account changes in general cognitive functioning. Face cognition thus remains a specific human ability compared with general cognition, even until old age. We discuss implications for models of cognitive aging and suggest that it is necessary to include more explicitly special social abilities in those models.

Comparison of stellar population model predictions using optical and infrared spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldwin, C.; McDermid, R. M.; Kuntschner, H.; Maraston, C.; Conroy, C.

2018-02-01

We present Gemini/GNIRS cross-dispersed near-infrared spectra of 12 nearby early-type galaxies, with the aim of testing commonly used stellar population synthesis models. We select a subset of galaxies from the ATLAS3D sample which span a wide range of ages (single stellar population equivalent ages of 1-15 Gyr) at approximately solar metallicity. We derive star formation histories using four different stellar population synthesis models, namely those of Bruzual & Charlot, Conroy, Gunn & White, Maraston & Strömbäck and Vazdekis et al. We compare star formation histories derived from near-infrared spectra with those derived from optical spectra using the same models. We find that while all models agree in the optical, the derived star formation histories vary dramatically from model to model in the near-infrared. We find that this variation is largely driven by the choice of stellar spectral library, such that models including high-quality spectral libraries provide the best fits to the data, and are the most self-consistent when comparing optically derived properties with near-infrared ones. We also find the impact of age variation in the near-infrared to be subtle, and largely encoded in the shape of the continuum, meaning that the common approach of removing continuum information with a high-order polynomial greatly reduces our ability to constrain ages in the near-infrared.

The hemispherical asymmetry of the residual polar caps on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindner, Bernhard Lee

1991-01-01

A model of the polar caps of Mars was created which allows: (1) for light penetration into the cap; (2) ice albedo to vary with age, latitude, hemisphere, dust content, and solar zenith angle; and (3) for diurnal variability. The model includes the radiative effects of clouds and dust, and heat transport as represented by a thermal wind. The model reproduces polar cap regression data very well, including the survival of CO2 frost at the south pole and reproduces the general trend in the Viking Lander pressure data.

An Evaluation of the Fixed Hotspot Hypothesis for the Pacific Plate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessel, P.; Kroenke, L. W.

2008-12-01

Using geometry and ages from 12 Pacific seamount chains, we recently constructed two new Pacific absolute plate motion models that extend our self-consistent and high-resolution models back to 145 Ma. The WK08-A model maps the full uncertainty in the age progressions into uncertainties in rotation opening angles, yielding a relatively smooth plate motion model. The WK08-G model relaxes the mapping of age uncertainties in order to better isolate secondary geometry changes seen along many co-registered chains. Both models have been used to assess the viability of the fixed hotspot hypothesis in the Pacific. In constructing these models, we found that only a small group of age samples had to be discarded on the grounds that they were discordant with the dominant trends. We were able to connect plate motions for pre- and post-Emperor age intervals by including the Ratak-Gilbert-Ellice, Liliuokalani and Musicians trails in our analysis. However, as no active hotspot locations exist for the older chains their inclusion adds additional model parameters. Both age and geometry misfits increase with age, reflecting the observed increase in age uncertainties and the broader and less distinct nature of the older trails. Paleomagnetic observations from the Emperor seamount chain have been interpreted to suggest that these seamounts must have formed at latitudes significantly more northerly than the present location of the Hawaii hotspot, implying a drifting mantle plume. At the same time, new estimates of the age of the Hawaii- Emperor bend places bend formation at a time of global plate reorganization. We will present a complete analysis of inter-chain distances between coeval radiometric samples from Pacific chains and compare these distances to the inter-hotspot distances at the present time. Significant departures from the current hotspot separations would be direct and unequivocal evidence of motion between the Pacific hotspot reference frame and the spin axis and as such complement the paleomagnetic analysis. Preliminary results suggest the Emperor segment data may indicate an increase in hotspot separation.

Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Age Using Synoptic Surveys of Environmental Tracers in Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, W. P.

2017-12-01

A model which simulates tracer concentration in surface water as a function the age distribution of groundwater discharge is used to characterize groundwater flow systems at a variety of spatial scales. We develop the theory behind the model and demonstrate its application in several groundwater systems of local to regional scale. A 1-D stream transport model, which includes: advection, dispersion, gas exchange, first-order decay and groundwater inflow is coupled a lumped parameter model that calculates the concentration of environmental tracers in discharging groundwater as a function of the groundwater residence time distribution. The lumped parameters, which describe the residence time distribution, are allowed to vary spatially, and multiple environmental tracers can be simulated. This model allows us to calculate the longitudinal profile of tracer concentration in streams as a function of the spatially variable groundwater age distribution. By fitting model results to observations of stream chemistry and discharge, we can then estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater age. The volume of groundwater discharge to streams can be estimated using a subset of environmental tracers, applied tracers, synoptic stream gauging or other methods, and the age of groundwater then estimated using the previously calculated groundwater discharge and observed environmental tracer concentrations. Synoptic surveys of SF6, CFC's, 3H and 222Rn, along with measured stream discharge are used to estimate the groundwater inflow distribution and mean age for regional scale surveys of the Berland River in west-central Alberta. We find that groundwater entering the Berland has observable age, and that the age estimated using our stream survey is of similar order to limited samples from groundwater wells in the region. Our results show that the stream can be used as an easily accessible location to constrain the regional scale spatial distribution of groundwater age.

Brain age and other bodily 'ages': implications for neuropsychiatry.

PubMed

Cole, James H; Marioni, Riccardo E; Harris, Sarah E; Deary, Ian J

2018-06-11

As our brains age, we tend to experience cognitive decline and are at greater risk of neurodegenerative disease and dementia. Symptoms of chronic neuropsychiatric diseases are also exacerbated during ageing. However, the ageing process does not affect people uniformly; nor, in fact, does the ageing process appear to be uniform even within an individual. Here, we outline recent neuroimaging research into brain ageing and the use of other bodily ageing biomarkers, including telomere length, the epigenetic clock, and grip strength. Some of these techniques, using statistical approaches, have the ability to predict chronological age in healthy people. Moreover, they are now being applied to neurological and psychiatric disease groups to provide insights into how these diseases interact with the ageing process and to deliver individualised predictions about future brain and body health. We discuss the importance of integrating different types of biological measurements, from both the brain and the rest of the body, to build more comprehensive models of the biological ageing process. Finally, we propose seven steps for the field of brain-ageing research to take in coming years. This will help us reach the long-term goal of developing clinically applicable statistical models of biological processes to measure, track and predict brain and body health in ageing and disease.

Population aging and its impacts: strategies of the health-care system in Taipei.

PubMed

Lin, Ming-Hsien; Chou, Ming-Yueh; Liang, Chih-Kuang; Peng, Li-Ning; Chen, Liang-Kung

2010-11-01

Taiwan is one of the fastest aging countries in the world. As such, the government has developed various strategies to promote an age-friendly health-care system. Health services are supported by National Health Insurance (NHI), which insures over 97% of citizens and over 99% of health-care institutes. The current health-care system has difficulties in caring for older patients with multiple comorbidities, complex care needs, functional impairments, and post-acute care needs. Taipei, an international metropolis with a well-preserved tradition of filial piety in Chinese societies, has developed various strategies to overcome the aforementioned barriers to an age-friendly health-care system. These include an emphasis on general medical care and a holistic approach in all specialties, development of a geriatrics specialty training program, development of post-acute services, and strengthening of linkages between health and social care services. Despite achievements thus far, challenges still include creating a more extensive integration between medical specialties, promotion of an interdisciplinary care model across specialties and health-care settings, and integration of health and social care services. The experiences of Taipei in developing an age-friendly health-care service system may be a culturally appropriate model for other Chinese and Asian communities. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pathology of the Aging Brain in Domestic and Laboratory Animals, and Animal Models of Human Neurodegenerative Diseases.

PubMed

Youssef, S A; Capucchio, M T; Rofina, J E; Chambers, J K; Uchida, K; Nakayama, H; Head, E

2016-03-01

According to the WHO, the proportion of people over 60 years is increasing and expected to reach 22% of total world's population in 2050. In parallel, recent animal demographic studies have shown that the life expectancy of pet dogs and cats is increasing. Brain aging is associated not only with molecular and morphological changes but also leads to different degrees of behavioral and cognitive dysfunction. Common age-related brain lesions in humans include brain atrophy, neuronal loss, amyloid plaques, cerebrovascular amyloid angiopathy, vascular mineralization, neurofibrillary tangles, meningeal osseous metaplasia, and accumulation of lipofuscin. In aging humans, the most common neurodegenerative disorder is Alzheimer's disease (AD), which progressively impairs cognition, behavior, and quality of life. Pathologic changes comparable to the lesions of AD are described in several other animal species, although their clinical significance and effect on cognitive function are poorly documented. This review describes the commonly reported age-associated neurologic lesions in domestic and laboratory animals and the relationship of these lesions to cognitive dysfunction. Also described are the comparative interspecies similarities and differences to AD and other human neurodegenerative diseases including Parkinson's disease and progressive supranuclear palsy, and the spontaneous and transgenic animal models of these diseases. © The Author(s) 2016.

Quantitative Analysis of the Cervical Texture by Ultrasound and Correlation with Gestational Age.

PubMed

Baños, Núria; Perez-Moreno, Alvaro; Migliorelli, Federico; Triginer, Laura; Cobo, Teresa; Bonet-Carne, Elisenda; Gratacos, Eduard; Palacio, Montse

2017-01-01

Quantitative texture analysis has been proposed to extract robust features from the ultrasound image to detect subtle changes in the textures of the images. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of quantitative cervical texture analysis to assess cervical tissue changes throughout pregnancy. This was a cross-sectional study including singleton pregnancies between 20.0 and 41.6 weeks of gestation from women who delivered at term. Cervical length was measured, and a selected region of interest in the cervix was delineated. A model to predict gestational age based on features extracted from cervical images was developed following three steps: data splitting, feature transformation, and regression model computation. Seven hundred images, 30 per gestational week, were included for analysis. There was a strong correlation between the gestational age at which the images were obtained and the estimated gestational age by quantitative analysis of the cervical texture (R = 0.88). This study provides evidence that quantitative analysis of cervical texture can extract features from cervical ultrasound images which correlate with gestational age. Further research is needed to evaluate its applicability as a biomarker of the risk of spontaneous preterm birth, as well as its role in cervical assessment in other clinical situations in which cervical evaluation might be relevant. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Lung function parameters improve prediction of VO2peak in an elderly population: The Generation 100 study.

PubMed

Hassel, Erlend; Stensvold, Dorthe; Halvorsen, Thomas; Wisløff, Ulrik; Langhammer, Arnulf; Steinshamn, Sigurd

2017-01-01

Peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) is an indicator of cardiovascular health and a useful tool for risk stratification. Direct measurement of VO2peak is resource-demanding and may be contraindicated. There exist several non-exercise models to estimate VO2peak that utilize easily obtainable health parameters, but none of them includes lung function measures or hemoglobin concentrations. We aimed to test whether addition of these parameters could improve prediction of VO2peak compared to an established model that includes age, waist circumference, self-reported physical activity and resting heart rate. We included 1431 subjects aged 69-77 years that completed a laboratory test of VO2peak, spirometry, and a gas diffusion test. Prediction models for VO2peak were developed with multiple linear regression, and goodness of fit was evaluated. Forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide and blood hemoglobin concentration significantly improved the ability of the established model to predict VO2peak. The explained variance of the model increased from 31% to 48% for men and from 32% to 38% for women (p<0.001). FEV1, diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide and hemoglobin concentration substantially improved the accuracy of VO2peak prediction when added to an established model in an elderly population.

Assessing factors related to waist circumference and obesity: application of a latent variable model.

PubMed

Dalvand, Sahar; Koohpayehzadeh, Jalil; Karimlou, Masoud; Asgari, Fereshteh; Rafei, Ali; Seifi, Behjat; Niksima, Seyed Hassan; Bakhshi, Enayatollah

2015-01-01

Because the use of BMI (Body Mass Index) alone as a measure of adiposity has been criticized, in the present study our aim was to fit a latent variable model to simultaneously examine the factors that affect waist circumference (continuous outcome) and obesity (binary outcome) among Iranian adults. Data included 18,990 Iranian individuals aged 20-65 years that are derived from the third National Survey of Noncommunicable Diseases Risk Factors in Iran. Using latent variable model, we estimated the relation of two correlated responses (waist circumference and obesity) with independent variables including age, gender, PR (Place of Residence), PA (physical activity), smoking status, SBP (Systolic Blood Pressure), DBP (Diastolic Blood Pressure), CHOL (cholesterol), FBG (Fasting Blood Glucose), diabetes, and FHD (family history of diabetes). All variables were related to both obesity and waist circumference (WC). Older age, female sex, being an urban resident, physical inactivity, nonsmoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, hyperglycemia, diabetes, and having family history of diabetes were significant risk factors that increased WC and obesity. Findings from this study of Iranian adult settings offer more insights into factors associated with high WC and high prevalence of obesity in this population.

The Next Generation of Numerical Modeling in Mergers- Constraining the Star Formation Law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chien, Li-Hsin

2010-09-01

Spectacular images of colliding galaxies like the "Antennae", taken with the Hubble Space Telescope, have revealed that a burst of star/cluster formation occurs whenever gas-rich galaxies interact. A?The ages and locations of these clusters reveal the interaction history and provide crucial clues to the process of star formation in galaxies. A?We propose to carry out state-of-the-art numerical simulations to model six nearby galaxy mergers {Arp 256, NGC 7469, NGC 4038/39, NGC 520, NGC 2623, NGC 3256}, hence increasing the number with this level of sophistication by a factor of 3. These simulations provide specific predictions for the age and spatial distributions of young star clusters. The comparison between these simulation results and the observations will allow us to answer a number of fundamental questions including: 1} is shock-induced or density-dependent star formation the dominant mechanism; 2} are the demographics {i.e. mass and age distributions} of the clusters in different mergers similar, i.e. "universal", or very different; and 3} will it be necessary to include other mechanisms, e.g., locally triggered star formation, in the models to better match the observations?

Panels of tumor-derived RNA markers in peripheral blood of patients with non-small cell lung cancer: their dependence on age, gender and clinical stages.

PubMed

Chian, Chih-Feng; Hwang, Yi-Ting; Terng, Harn-Jing; Lee, Shih-Chun; Chao, Tsui-Yi; Chang, Hung; Ho, Ching-Liang; Wu, Yi-Ying; Perng, Wann-Cherng

2016-08-02

Peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC)-derived gene signatures were investigated for their potential use in the early detection of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In our study, 187 patients with NSCLC and 310 age- and gender-matched controls, and an independent set containing 29 patients for validation were included. Eight significant NSCLC-associated genes were identified, including DUSP6, EIF2S3, GRB2, MDM2, NF1, POLDIP2, RNF4, and WEE1. The logistic model containing these significant markers was able to distinguish subjects with NSCLC from controls with an excellent performance, 80.7% sensitivity, 90.6% specificity, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.924. Repeated random sub-sampling for 100 times was used to validate the performance of classification training models with an average AUC of 0.92. Additional cross-validation using the independent set resulted in the sensitivity 75.86%. Furthermore, six age/gender-dependent genes: CPEB4, EIF2S3, GRB2, MCM4, RNF4, and STAT2 were identified using age and gender stratification approach. STAT2 and WEE1 were explored as stage-dependent using stage-stratified subpopulation. We conclude that these logistic models using different signatures for total and stratified samples are potential complementary tools for assessing the risk of NSCLC.

A hybrid machine learning model to estimate nitrate contamination of production zone groundwater in the Central Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ransom, K.; Nolan, B. T.; Faunt, C. C.; Bell, A.; Gronberg, J.; Traum, J.; Wheeler, D. C.; Rosecrans, C.; Belitz, K.; Eberts, S.; Harter, T.

2016-12-01

A hybrid, non-linear, machine learning statistical model was developed within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface in the Central Valley, California. A database of 213 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and county scale nitrogen mass balance, historical and current landuse, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6,000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The machine learning method, gradient boosting machine (GBM) was used to screen predictor variables and rank them in order of importance in relation to the groundwater nitrate measurements. The top five most important predictor variables included oxidation/reduction characteristics, historical field scale nitrogen mass balance, climate, and depth to 60 year old water. Twenty-two variables were selected for the final model and final model errors for log-transformed hold-out data were R squared of 0.45 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.124. Modeled mean groundwater age was tested separately for error improvement in the model and when included decreased model RMSE by 0.5% compared to the same model without age and by 0.20% compared to the model with all 213 variables. 1D and 2D partial plots were examined to determine how variables behave individually and interact in the model. Some variables behaved as expected: log nitrate decreased with increasing probability of anoxic conditions and depth to 60 year old water, generally decreased with increasing natural landuse surrounding wells and increasing mean groundwater age, generally increased with increased minimum depth to high water table and with increased base flow index value. Other variables exhibited much more erratic or noisy behavior in the model making them more difficult to interpret but highlighting the usefulness of the non-linear machine learning method. 2D interaction plots show probability of anoxic groundwater conditions largely control estimated nitrate concentrations compared to the other predictors.

Standardized Tests and Froebel's Original Kindergarten Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeynes, William H.

2006-01-01

The author argues that American educators rely on standardized tests at too early an age when administered in kindergarten, particularly given the original intent of kindergarten as envisioned by its founder, Friedrich Froebel. The author examines the current use of standardized tests in kindergarten and the Froebel model, including his emphasis…

Midlife Eriksonian Psychosocial Development: Setting the Stage for Late-Life Cognitive and Emotional Health

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malone, Johanna C.; Liu, Sabrina R.; Vaillant, George E.; Rentz, Dorene M.; Waldinger, Robert J.

2016-01-01

Erikson's (1950) model of adult psychosocial development outlines the significance of successful involvement within one's relationships, work, and community for healthy aging. He theorized that the consequences of not meeting developmental challenges included stagnation and emotional despair. Drawing on this model, the present study uses…

Pathways to Mathematics: Longitudinal Predictors of Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LeFevre, Jo-Anne; Fast, Lisa; Skwarchuk, Sheri-Lynn; Smith-Chant, Brenda L.; Bisanz, Jeffrey; Kamawar, Deepthi; Penner-Wilger, Marcie

2010-01-01

A model of the relations among cognitive precursors, early numeracy skill, and mathematical outcomes was tested for 182 children from 4.5 to 7.5 years of age. The model integrates research from neuroimaging, clinical populations, and normal development in children and adults. It includes 3 precursor pathways: quantitative, linguistic, and spatial…

Depression and Delinquency Covariation in an Accelerated Longitudinal Sample of Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kofler, Michael J.; McCart, Michael R.; Zajac, Kristyn; Ruggiero, Kenneth J.; Saunders, Benjamin E.; Kilpatrick, Dean G.

2011-01-01

Objectives: The current study tested opposing predictions stemming from the failure and acting out theories of depression-delinquency covariation. Method: Participants included a nationwide longitudinal sample of adolescents (N = 3,604) ages 12 to 17. Competing models were tested with cohort-sequential latent growth curve modeling to determine…

Adult Development: Implications for Adult Education. Overview. ERIC Digest No. 41.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Naylor, Michele

Various researchers, including Carl Jung, Charlotte Buhler, Erik Erikson, and Robert Havighurst, have formulated sequential models of adult development. More recent investigators, such as Daniel Levinson, Roger Gould, and Gail Sheehy have formulated age-related sequential models of adult development that view the various stages of adulthood in…

Age-dependent prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of streptococcus pneumoniae before conjugate vaccine introduction: a prediction model based on a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Le Polain de Waroux, Olivier; Flasche, Stefan; Prieto-Merino, David; Edmunds, W John

2014-01-01

Data on the prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of S.pneumoniae in all age groups are important to help predict the impact of introducing pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) into routine infant immunization, given the important indirect effect of the vaccine. Yet most carriage studies are limited to children under five years of age. We here explore the association between carriage prevalence and serotype distribution in children aged ≥5 years and in adults compared to children. We conducted a systematic review of studies providing carriage estimates across age groups in healthy populations not previously exposed to PCV, using MEDLINE and Embase. We used Bayesian linear meta-regression models to predict the overall carriage prevalence as well as the prevalence and distribution of vaccine and nonvaccine type (VT and NVT) serotypes in older age groups as a function of that in <5 y olds. Twenty-nine studies compromising of 20,391 individuals were included in the analysis. In all studies nasopharyngeal carriage decreased with increasing age. We found a strong positive linear association between the carriage prevalence in pre-school childen (<5 y) and both that in school aged children (5-17 y olds) and in adults. The proportion of VT serotypes isolated from carriers was consistently lower in older age groups and on average about 73% that of children <5 y among 5-17 y olds and adults respectively. We provide a prediction model to infer the carriage prevalence and serotype distribution in 5-17 y olds and adults as a function of that in children <5 years of age. Such predictions are helpful for assessing the potential population-wide effects of vaccination programmes, e.g. via transmission models, and thus assist in the design of future pneumococcal conjugate vaccination strategies.

A Risk Prediction Model for Sporadic CRC Based on Routine Lab Results.

PubMed

Boursi, Ben; Mamtani, Ronac; Hwang, Wei-Ting; Haynes, Kevin; Yang, Yu-Xiao

2016-07-01

Current risk scores for colorectal cancer (CRC) are based on demographic and behavioral factors and have limited predictive values. To develop a novel risk prediction model for sporadic CRC using clinical and laboratory data in electronic medical records. We conducted a nested case-control study in a UK primary care database. Cases included those with a diagnostic code of CRC, aged 50-85. Each case was matched with four controls using incidence density sampling. CRC predictors were examined using univariate conditional logistic regression. Variables with p value <0.25 in the univariate analysis were further evaluated in multivariate models using backward elimination. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating curve. Calibration was evaluated using the McFadden's R2. Net reclassification index (NRI) associated with incorporation of laboratory results was calculated. Results were internally validated. A model similar to existing CRC prediction models which included age, sex, height, obesity, ever smoking, alcohol dependence, and previous screening colonoscopy had an AUC of 0.58 (0.57-0.59) with poor goodness of fit. A laboratory-based model including hematocrit, MCV, lymphocytes, and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) had an AUC of 0.76 (0.76-0.77) and a McFadden's R2 of 0.21 with a NRI of 47.6 %. A combined model including sex, hemoglobin, MCV, white blood cells, platelets, NLR, and oral hypoglycemic use had an AUC of 0.80 (0.79-0.81) with a McFadden's R2 of 0.27 and a NRI of 60.7 %. Similar results were shown in an internal validation set. A laboratory-based risk model had good predictive power for sporadic CRC risk.

Defining the "older" crash victim: the relationship between age and serious injury in motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Newgard, Craig D

2008-07-01

Age is often used as a predictor of injury and mortality in motor vehicle crashes (MVCs), however, the age that defines an "older" occupant in terms of injury-risk remains unclear, as do specific injury patterns associated with increasing age. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between age and serious injury (including injury patterns) for occupants involved in MVCs. This was a retrospective cohort study using a national population-based cohort of adult front-seat occupants involved in MVCs and included in the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System database from 1995 to 2006. The primary outcome was serious injury, defined as an abbreviated injury scale (AIS) score >/=3 in any body region. Anatomic injury patterns were also assessed by age. One hundred thousand one hundred and fifty-six adult front-seat occupants were included in the analysis, of which 14,128 (2%) were seriously injured. Age was a strong predictor of serious injury using a variety of different age covariates (categorical, continuous, and polynomial) in multivariable regression models (p<0.0001 for all). There was evidence of a strong non-linear relationship between age and serious injury (p<0.001 for comparison of non-linear to linear representation of age). There was no age that clearly defined an "older" occupant by injury risk, as the odds of injury increased with increasing age across all age groups. The proportion of serious head and extremity injuries gradually increased with increasing age, while serious chest injuries markedly increased after 60 years. Age is a strong predictor of serious injury from motor vehicle trauma, the risk of which increases in non-linear fashion as age increases. There is no specific age that clearly defines an "older" occupant by injury risk.

Brain tissues atrophy is not always the best structural biomarker of physiological aging: A multimodal cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Cherubini, Andrea; Caligiuri, Maria Eugenia; Péran, Patrice; Sabatini, Umberto; Cosentino, Carlo; Amato, Francesco

2015-01-01

This study presents a voxel-based multiple regression analysis of different magnetic resonance image modalities, including anatomical T1-weighted, T2* relaxometry, and diffusion tensor imaging. Quantitative parameters sensitive to complementary brain tissue alterations, including morphometric atrophy, mineralization, microstructural damage, and anisotropy loss, were compared in a linear physiological aging model in 140 healthy subjects (range 20-74 years). The performance of different predictors and the identification of the best biomarker of age-induced structural variation were compared without a priori anatomical knowledge. The best quantitative predictors in several brain regions were iron deposition and microstructural damage, rather than macroscopic tissue atrophy. Age variations were best resolved with a combination of markers, suggesting that multiple predictors better capture age-induced tissue alterations. These findings highlight the importance of a combined evaluation of multimodal biomarkers for the study of aging and point to a number of novel applications for the method described.

Video Modeling and Observational Learning to Teach Gaming Access to Students with ASD.

PubMed

Spriggs, Amy D; Gast, David L; Knight, Victoria F

2016-09-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate both video modeling and observational learning to teach age-appropriate recreation and leisure skills (i.e., accessing video games) to students with autism spectrum disorder. Effects of video modeling were evaluated via a multiple probe design across participants and criteria for mastery were based on these results. Secondary measures were collected on observational learning across participants and behaviors. Participants included 4 children with autism, ages 8-11, who were served in self-contained special education classrooms. Results indicated a functional relation between video modeling and increased independence in gaming; observational learning occurred for at least some steps across students. Results, implications for practitioners, limitations, and ideas for future research are discussed.

Error models for official mortality forecasts.

PubMed

Alho, J M; Spencer, B D

1990-09-01

"The Office of the Actuary, U.S. Social Security Administration, produces alternative forecasts of mortality to reflect uncertainty about the future.... In this article we identify the components and assumptions of the official forecasts and approximate them by stochastic parametric models. We estimate parameters of the models from past data, derive statistical intervals for the forecasts, and compare them with the official high-low intervals. We use the models to evaluate the forecasts rather than to develop different predictions of the future. Analysis of data from 1972 to 1985 shows that the official intervals for mortality forecasts for males or females aged 45-70 have approximately a 95% chance of including the true mortality rate in any year. For other ages the chances are much less than 95%." excerpt

Serum levels of the immune activation marker neopterin change with age and gender and are modified by race, BMI, and percentage of body fat.

PubMed

Spencer, Monique E; Jain, Alka; Matteini, Amy; Beamer, Brock A; Wang, Nae-Yuh; Leng, Sean X; Punjabi, Naresh M; Walston, Jeremy D; Fedarko, Neal S

2010-08-01

Neopterin, a GTP metabolite expressed by macrophages, is a marker of immune activation. We hypothesize that levels of this serum marker alter with donor age, reflecting increased chronic immune activation in normal aging. In addition to age, we assessed gender, race, body mass index (BMI), and percentage of body fat (%fat) as potential covariates. Serum was obtained from 426 healthy participants whose age ranged from 18 to 87 years. Anthropometric measures included %fat and BMI. Neopterin concentrations were measured by competitive ELISA. The paired associations between neopterin and age, BMI, or %fat were analyzed by Spearman's correlation or by linear regression of log-transformed neopterin, whereas overall associations were modeled by multiple regression of log-transformed neopterin as a function of age, gender, race, BMI, %fat, and interaction terms. Across all participants, neopterin exhibited a positive association with age, BMI, and %fat. Multiple regression modeling of neopterin in women and men as a function of age, BMI, and race revealed that each covariate contributed significantly to neopterin values and that optimal modeling required an interaction term between race and BMI. The covariate %fat was highly correlated with BMI and could be substituted for BMI to yield similar regression coefficients. The association of age and gender with neopterin levels and their modification by race, BMI, or %fat reflect the biology underlying chronic immune activation and perhaps gender differences in disease incidence, morbidity, and mortality.

[Value of ultrasonography to predict the endometrial cancer in postmenopausal bleeding].

PubMed

Bouzid, A; Ayachi, A; Mourali, M

2015-10-01

To build mathematical models for evaluating the individual risk of endometrial malignancy in women with postmenopausal bleeding and a thick endometrium using clinical data, sonographic endometrial thickness and power Doppler ultrasound findings. A total of 117 patients underwent transvaginal two-dimensional gray-scale and power Doppler ultrasound examination of the endometrium before getting endometrial biopsy. Inclusion criteria were post-menopausal bleeding and a thick endometrium greater than 5mm. The ultrasound image showing the most vascularized section through the endometrium as assessed by power Doppler was frozen to estimate endometrial thickness and features. The vascularity index was calculated using computer software. A structured history was taken to collect clinical information. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to create mathematical models to predict endometrial malignancy. There were 31 (26.4%) malignant and 86 (74.6%) benign endometria… Women with a malignant endometrium were older (median age 61 vs 56 years, P=0.036) and had a thicker endometrium (median thickness 18.8mm vs 12.5; P=0.002) and higher values for vascularity index. When using only clinical data to build a model for estimating the risk of endometrial malignancy, a model including the variables age had the largest area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC), with a value of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.79). A model including age and endometrial thickness had an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.50-0.96), and one including age, endometrial thickness and vascularity index had an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.62-0.97). Using a risk cut-off of 12%, the latter model had sensitivity 89%, specificity 74%, positive likelihood ratio 3.42 and negative likelihood ratio 0.14. Postmenopausal bleeding is a frequent cause of consultation in gynecological particularly in peri- or post-menopausal period. They are the main alarm sign of endometrial carcinoma. Vaginal ultrasound has become the "gold standard" in the initial exploration. It is a powerful tool to estimate the individual risk of malignancy in symptomatic postmenopausal women in order to optimize the management. The diagnostic performance of models predicting endometrial cancer increases substantially when sonographic and power Doppler information are added to clinical variables. This model seems to be clinically useful but need to be prospectively validated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The Hispanic Paradox and Predictors of Mortality in an Aging Bi-ethnic Cohort of Mexican Americans and European Americans: The San Antonio Longitudinal Study of Aging

PubMed Central

Espinoza, Sara E.; Jung, Inkyung; Hazuda, Helen

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVES To examine predictors of mortality in aging Mexican Americans (MAs) and European Americans (EAs). DESIGN Longitudinal, observational cohort study. SETTING Socioeconomically diverse neighborhoods in San Antonio, Texas. PARTICIPANTS Three hundred and ninety-four MA and 355 EA community-dwelling older adults (65+) who completed the baseline examination (1992–96) of the San Antonio Longitudinal Study of Aging (SALSA) and for whom vital status was ascertained over an average 8.2 years of follow-up. MEASUREMENTS Ethnic group was classified using a validated algorithm. Hazards ratios (HR) for mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models with age, sex, ethnic group, education, income, frailty, diabetes with and without complications, comorbidity, cognition, depressive symptoms, and body mass index included as predictors in sequential models. RESULTS At baseline, MAs had higher prevalence of diabetes and frailty and lower socioeconomic status (SES) compared to EAs. The age- and sex-adjusted ethnic HR (MA vs. EA) for mortality was 1.54 (95% CI: 1.17–2.03). After adjusting for SES, the ethnic HR was no longer significant (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 0.83–1.61). In the final model, comorbidity, diabetes with complications, depressive symptoms, and cognitive impairment were significant independent risk factors for mortality. CONCLUSION Contrary to the Hispanic paradox, MAs were at increased risk of mortality. Moreover, this ethnic disparity was largely explained by SES differences. Significant independent predictors of mortality, regardless of ethnic group, included diabetes with complications, comorbidity, depressive symptoms and cognitive impairment. Mortality reduction in older MAs requires attention to both socioeconomic disparities and disease factors. PMID:24000922

Determinants of physical activity in middle-aged woman in Isfahan using the health belief model.

PubMed

Hosseini, Habibollah; Moradi, Razieh; Kazemi, Ashraf; Shahshahani, Maryam Sadat

2017-01-01

Nowadays with respect to the automation of the lifestyle, immobility statistics in middle-aged women has increased and they are at risk for complications of immobility. One of the models used to identify factors associated with physical activity is Health Belief Model utilized in different age and different cultural backgrounds and different results have been obtained from those studies. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting on physical activity in middle-aged women using Health Belief Model. This descriptive-correlation study was conducted on 224 middle-aged women referring to health centers in Isfahan. Health Belief Model structures including perceived susceptibility and severity, perceived barriers and benefits, and self-efficacy were measured by questionnaire and physical activity was assessed using the international physical activity questionnaire. Collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Pearson correlation coefficient test and regression analysis. There wasn't significant correlation between perceived susceptibility ( P = 0.263, r = 0.075) and perceived severity with physical activity duration ( P = 0.127, r = 0.058) but there was positive and weak correlation between physical activity duration with perceived benefits ( P = 0.001 and r = 0.26) and perceived self-efficacy ( P = 0.001, r = 0.54) and had weak and inverse correlation with perceived barriers ( P = 0.001, r = -0.25). Regression analysis also showed that from among all the Health Belief Model structures just self-efficacy structure has influenced on behavior independently and other structures are affected by it. The obtained results implied on a correlation between benefits, barriers and perceived self-efficacy with and moderate physical activity. Therefore it is necessary to develop appropriate educational programs with emphasis on structures of Health Belief Model that has the maximum impact on physical activity in middle-aged women.

Reproductive Risk Factors and Coronary Heart Disease in the Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study

PubMed Central

Parikh, Nisha I.; Jeppson, Rebecca P.; Berger, Jeffrey S.; Eaton, Charles B.; Kroenke, Candyce H.; LeBlanc, Erin S.; Lewis, Cora E.; Loucks, Eric B.; Parker, Donna R.; Rillamas-Sun, Eileen; Ryckman, Kelli K; Waring, Molly E.; Schenken, Robert S.; Johnson, Karen C; Edstedt-Bonamy, Anna-Karin; Allison, Matthew A.; Howard, Barbara V.

2016-01-01

Background Reproductive factors provide an early window into a woman’s coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, however their contribution to CHD risk stratification is uncertain. Methods and Results In the Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study, we constructed Cox proportional hazards models for CHD including age, pregnancy status, number of live births, age at menarche, menstrual irregularity, age at first birth, stillbirths, miscarriages, infertility ≥ 1 year, infertility cause, and breastfeeding. We next added each candidate reproductive factor to an established CHD risk factor model. A final model was then constructed with significant reproductive factors added to established CHD risk factors. Improvement in C-statistic, net reclassification index (or NRI with risk categories of <5%, 5–<10%, and ≥10% 10-year risk of CHD) and integrated discriminatory index (IDI) were assessed. Among 72,982 women [n=4607 CHD events, median follow-up=12.0 (IQR=8.3–13.7) years, mean (SD) age 63.2 (7.2) years], an age-adjusted reproductive risk factor model had a C-statistic of 0.675 for CHD. In a model adjusted for established CHD risk factors, younger age at first birth, number of still births, number of miscarriages and lack of breastfeeding were positively associated with CHD. Reproductive factors modestly improved model discrimination (C-statistic increased from 0.726 to 0.730; IDI=0.0013, p-value < 0.0001). Net reclassification for women with events was not improved (NRI events=0.007, p-value=0.18); and for women without events was marginally improved (NRI non-events=0.002, p-value=0.04) Conclusions Key reproductive factors are associated with CHD independently of established CHD risk factors, very modestly improve model discrimination and do not materially improve net reclassification. PMID:27143682

The cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination of healthy adults 50-64 years of age.

PubMed

Turner, D A; Wailoo, A J; Cooper, N J; Sutton, A J; Abrams, K R; Nicholson, K G

2006-02-13

Influenza can cause significant morbidity and mortality. Influenza vaccination is an effective and safe strategy in the prevention of influenza. Currently the National Health Service (NHS) vaccinates 'at-risk' individuals only. This definition includes everyone over 65 years of age but excludes individuals 50-64 years of age unless they have an additional risk factor, such as underlying heart disease or lung disease. In order to examine the cost-effectiveness of an extension of the vaccination policy to include this age group we constructed an economic model to estimate the costs and benefits of vaccination from both a health service and a societal perspective. Data to populate the model was obtained from the literature and the outcome measure used was the quality adjusted life year (QALY). Influenza vaccination prevented an estimated 4508 cases (95% CI: 2431-7606) per 100,000 vaccinees per influenza season for a net cost to the NHS of pound653,221 (95% CI: 354,575-1,072,257). The net cost increased to pound1,139,069 (95% CI 27,052-2,030,473) when non-NHS costs were included and the estimated cost-per-QALY were pound6174 and pound10,766 for NHS and all costs respectively. Extension of the current immunisation policy has the potential to generate a significant health benefit at a comparatively low cost.

Dynamic Self-Organization and Early Lexical Development in Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Ping; Zhao, Xiaowei; Whinney, Brian Mac

2007-01-01

In this study we present a self-organizing connectionist model of early lexical development. We call this model DevLex-II, based on the earlier DevLex model. DevLex-II can simulate a variety of empirical patterns in children's acquisition of words. These include a clear vocabulary spurt, effects of word frequency and length on age of acquisition,…

Which strategies reduce breast cancer mortality most? Collaborative modeling of optimal screening, treatment, and obesity prevention.

PubMed

Mandelblatt, Jeanne; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien; Schechter, Clyde; Chang, Yaojen; Huang, An-Tsun; Near, Aimee M; de Koning, Harry; Jemal, Ahmedin

2013-07-15

US breast cancer mortality is declining, but thousands of women still die each year. Two established simulation models examine 6 strategies that include increased screening and/or treatment or elimination of obesity versus continuation of current patterns. The models use common national data on incidence and obesity prevalence, competing causes of death, mammography characteristics, treatment effects, and survival/cure. Parameters are modified based on obesity (defined as BMI  ≥  30 kg/m(2) ). Outcomes are presented for the year 2025 among women aged 25+ and include numbers of cases, deaths, mammograms and false-positives; age-adjusted incidence and mortality; breast cancer mortality reduction and deaths averted; and probability of dying of breast cancer. If current patterns continue, the models project that there would be about 50,100-57,400 (range across models) annual breast cancer deaths in 2025. If 90% of women were screened annually from ages 40 to 54 and biennially from ages 55 to 99 (or death), then 5100-6100 fewer deaths would occur versus current patterns, but incidence, mammograms, and false-positives would increase. If all women received the indicated systemic treatment (with no screening change), then 11,400-14,500 more deaths would be averted versus current patterns, but increased toxicity could occur. If 100% received screening plus indicated therapy, there would be 18,100-20,400 fewer deaths. Eliminating obesity yields 3300-5700 fewer breast cancer deaths versus continuation of current obesity levels. Maximal reductions in breast cancer deaths could be achieved through optimizing treatment use, followed by increasing screening use and obesity prevention. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

Measurement of pediatric regional cerebral blood flow from 6 months to 15 years of age in a clinical population.

PubMed

Carsin-Vu, Aline; Corouge, Isabelle; Commowick, Olivier; Bouzillé, Guillaume; Barillot, Christian; Ferré, Jean-Christophe; Proisy, Maia

2018-04-01

To investigate changes in cerebral blood flow (CBF) in gray matter (GM) between 6 months and 15 years of age and to provide CBF values for the brain, GM, white matter (WM), hemispheres and lobes. Between 2013 and 2016, we retrospectively included all clinical MRI examinations with arterial spin labeling (ASL). We excluded subjects with a condition potentially affecting brain perfusion. For each subject, mean values of CBF in the brain, GM, WM, hemispheres and lobes were calculated. GM CBF was fitted using linear, quadratic and cubic polynomial regression against age. Regression models were compared with Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and Likelihood Ratio tests. 84 children were included (44 females/40 males). Mean CBF values were 64.2 ± 13.8 mL/100 g/min in GM, and 29.3 ± 10.0 mL/100 g/min in WM. The best-fit model of brain perfusion was the cubic polynomial function (AIC = 672.7, versus respectively AIC = 673.9 and AIC = 674.1 with the linear negative function and the quadratic polynomial function). A statistically significant difference between the tested models demonstrating the superiority of the quadratic (p = 0.18) or cubic polynomial model (p = 0.06), over the negative linear regression model was not found. No effect of general anesthesia (p = 0.34) or of gender (p = 0.16) was found. we provided values for ASL CBF in the brain, GM, WM, hemispheres, and lobes over a wide pediatric age range, approximately showing inverted U-shaped changes in GM perfusion over the course of childhood. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Barrett’s Esophagus Among Men

PubMed Central

Rubenstein, Joel H.; Morgenstern, Hal; Appelman, Henry; Scheiman, James; Schoenfeld, Philip; McMahon, Laurence F.; Metko, Valbona; Near, Ellen; Kellenberg, Joan; Kalish, Tal; Inadomi, John M.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES Risk factors for Barrett’s esophagus include gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) symptoms, age, abdominal obesity, and tobacco use. We aimed to develop a tool using these factors to predict the presence of Barrett’s esophagus. METHODS Male colorectal cancer (CRC) screenees were recruited to undergo upper endoscopy, identifying newly diagnosed cases of Barrett’s esophagus. Logistic regression models predicting Barrett’s esophagus using GERD symptoms alone and together with abdominal obesity, tobacco use, and age were compared. RESULTS Barrett’s esophagus was found in 70 (8.5%) of 822 CRC screenees. Mutually adjusting for other covariates, Barrett’s esophagus was associated with weekly GERD (odds ratio (OR) = 2.33, 95% confidence interval (Cl)=1.34, 4.05), age (OR per 10 years = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.05, 2.25), waist-to-hip ratio (OR per 0.10 = 1.44, 95% Cl=0.898, 2.32) and packyears of cigarette use (OR per 10 pack-years = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.04, 1.14). A model including those four factors had a greater area under the receiver operating characteristics curve than did a model based on GERD frequency and duration alone (0.72 vs. 0.61, P<0.001), and it had a net reclassification improvement index of 19–25%. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of Barrett’s esophagus was substantial in our population of older overweight men. A model based on GERD, age, abdominal obesity, and cigarette use more accurately classified the presence of Barrett’s esophagus than did a model based on GERD alone. Following validation of the tool in another population, its use in clinical practice might improve the efficiency of screening for Barrett’s esophagus. PMID:23318485

Images of smokers and willingness to smoke among African American pre-adolescents: an application of the prototype/willingness model of adolescent health risk behavior to smoking initiation.

PubMed

Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X; Stock, Michelle L; Lune, Linda S Vande; Cleveland, Michael J

2005-06-01

This study used the prototype/willingness model of adolescent health risk behavior to examine factors related to onset of smoking. Two waves of data were collected from a panel of 742 African American children (mean age=10.5 at Wave 1) and their primary caregivers. Measures included cognitions outlined by the prototype model as well as self-reports of smoking by the parent and child. Structural equation modeling revealed a pattern consistent with expectations generated by the prototype model. The relation between contextual, familial, and dispositional factors-including neighborhood risk, parental smoking, and children's academic orientation-and the initiation of smoking at Wave 2, two years later, was mediated by the children's cognitions. Primary among these cognitions were the children's images of smokers and children's willingness to smoke. Smoking cognitions mediate the impact of important distal factors (such as context, family environment, and disposition) on the onset of smoking in children. Perhaps more important, it is possible to predict onset of smoking in African American children as young as age 10 by assessing the cognitive factors suggested by the prototype model.

Ages of LMC star clusters using ASAD2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asa'd, Randa S.; Vazdekis, Alexandre; Zeinelabdin, Sami

2016-04-01

We use ASAD2, the new version of ASAD (Analyzer of Spectra for Age Determination), to obtain the age and reddening of 27 Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) clusters from full fitting of integrated spectra using different statistical methods [χ2 and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test] and a set of stellar population models including GALAXEV and MILES. We show that our results are in good agreement with the colour-magnitude diagram (CMD) ages for both models, and that metallicity does not affect the age determination for the full spectrum fitting method regardless of the model used for ages with log (age/year) < 9. We discuss the results obtained by the two statistical results for both GALAXEV and MILES versus three factors: age, signal-to-noise ratio and resolution (full width at half maximum). The predicted reddening values when using the χ2 minimization method are within the range found in the literature for resolved clusters (I.e. <0.35); however the KS test can predict E(B - V) higher values. The sharp spectrum transition originated at ages around the supergiants contribution, at either side of the AGB peak around log (age/year) 9.0 and log (age/year) 7.8 are limiting our ability to provide values in agreement with the CMD estimates and as a result the reddening determination is not accurate. We provide the detailed results of four clusters spanning a wide range of ages. ASAD2 is a user-friendly program available for download on the Web and can be immediately used at http://randaasad.wordpress.com/asad-package/.

Gene Network Construction from Microarray Data Identifies a Key Network Module and Several Candidate Hub Genes in Age-Associated Spatial Learning Impairment

PubMed Central

Uddin, Raihan; Singh, Shiva M.

2017-01-01

As humans age many suffer from a decrease in normal brain functions including spatial learning impairments. This study aimed to better understand the molecular mechanisms in age-associated spatial learning impairment (ASLI). We used a mathematical modeling approach implemented in Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis (WGCNA) to create and compare gene network models of young (learning unimpaired) and aged (predominantly learning impaired) brains from a set of exploratory datasets in rats in the context of ASLI. The major goal was to overcome some of the limitations previously observed in the traditional meta- and pathway analysis using these data, and identify novel ASLI related genes and their networks based on co-expression relationship of genes. This analysis identified a set of network modules in the young, each of which is highly enriched with genes functioning in broad but distinct GO functional categories or biological pathways. Interestingly, the analysis pointed to a single module that was highly enriched with genes functioning in “learning and memory” related functions and pathways. Subsequent differential network analysis of this “learning and memory” module in the aged (predominantly learning impaired) rats compared to the young learning unimpaired rats allowed us to identify a set of novel ASLI candidate hub genes. Some of these genes show significant repeatability in networks generated from independent young and aged validation datasets. These hub genes are highly co-expressed with other genes in the network, which not only show differential expression but also differential co-expression and differential connectivity across age and learning impairment. The known function of these hub genes indicate that they play key roles in critical pathways, including kinase and phosphatase signaling, in functions related to various ion channels, and in maintaining neuronal integrity relating to synaptic plasticity and memory formation. Taken together, they provide a new insight and generate new hypotheses into the molecular mechanisms responsible for age associated learning impairment, including spatial learning. PMID:29066959

Gene Network Construction from Microarray Data Identifies a Key Network Module and Several Candidate Hub Genes in Age-Associated Spatial Learning Impairment.

PubMed

Uddin, Raihan; Singh, Shiva M

2017-01-01

As humans age many suffer from a decrease in normal brain functions including spatial learning impairments. This study aimed to better understand the molecular mechanisms in age-associated spatial learning impairment (ASLI). We used a mathematical modeling approach implemented in Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis (WGCNA) to create and compare gene network models of young (learning unimpaired) and aged (predominantly learning impaired) brains from a set of exploratory datasets in rats in the context of ASLI. The major goal was to overcome some of the limitations previously observed in the traditional meta- and pathway analysis using these data, and identify novel ASLI related genes and their networks based on co-expression relationship of genes. This analysis identified a set of network modules in the young, each of which is highly enriched with genes functioning in broad but distinct GO functional categories or biological pathways. Interestingly, the analysis pointed to a single module that was highly enriched with genes functioning in "learning and memory" related functions and pathways. Subsequent differential network analysis of this "learning and memory" module in the aged (predominantly learning impaired) rats compared to the young learning unimpaired rats allowed us to identify a set of novel ASLI candidate hub genes. Some of these genes show significant repeatability in networks generated from independent young and aged validation datasets. These hub genes are highly co-expressed with other genes in the network, which not only show differential expression but also differential co-expression and differential connectivity across age and learning impairment. The known function of these hub genes indicate that they play key roles in critical pathways, including kinase and phosphatase signaling, in functions related to various ion channels, and in maintaining neuronal integrity relating to synaptic plasticity and memory formation. Taken together, they provide a new insight and generate new hypotheses into the molecular mechanisms responsible for age associated learning impairment, including spatial learning.

Breast Arterial Calcification Is Associated with Reproductive Factors in Asymptomatic Postmenopausal Women

PubMed Central

Whaley, Dana H.; Sheedy, Patrick F.; Peyser, Patricia A.

2010-01-01

Abstract Objective The etiology of breast arterial calcification (BAC) is not well understood. We examined reproductive history and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor associations with the presence of detectable BAC in asymptomatic postmenopausal women. Methods Reproductive history and CVD risk factors were obtained in 240 asymptomatic postmenopausal women from a community-based research study who had a screening mammogram within 2 years of their participation in the study. The mammograms were reviewed for the presence of detectable BAC. Age-adjusted logistic regression models were fit to assess the association between each risk factor and the presence of BAC. Multiple variable logistic regression models were used to identify the most parsimonious model for the presence of BAC. Results The prevalence of BAC increased with increased age (p < 0.0001). The most parsimonious logistic regression model for BAC presence included age at time of examination, increased parity (p = 0.01), earlier age at first birth (p = 0.002), weight, and an age-by-weight interaction term (p = 0.004). Older women with a smaller body size had a higher probability of having BAC than women of the same age with a larger body size. Conclusions The presence or absence of BAC at mammography may provide an assessment of a postmenopausal woman's lifetime estrogen exposure and indicate women who could be at risk for hormonally related conditions. PMID:20629578

Obesity and Aging: Consequences for Cognition, Brain Structure, and Brain Function.

PubMed

Bischof, Gérard N; Park, Denise C

2015-01-01

This review focuses on the relationship between obesity and aging and how these interact to affect cognitive function. The topics covered are guided by the Scaffolding Theory of Aging and Cognition (STAC [Park and Reuter-Lorenz. Annu Rev Psychol 2009;60:173-96]-a conceptual model designed to relate brain structure and function to one's level of cognitive ability. The initial literature search was focused on normal aging and was guided by the key words, "aging, cognition, and obesity" in PubMed. In a second search, we added key words related to neuropathology including words "Alzheimer's disease," "vascular dementia," and "mild cognitive impairment." The data suggest that being overweight or obese in midlife may be more detrimental to subsequent age-related cognitive decline than being overweight or obese at later stages of the life span. These effects are likely mediated by the accelerated effects obesity has on the integrity of neural structures, including both gray and white matter. Further epidemiological studies have provided evidence that obesity in midlife is linked to an increased risk for Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia, most likely via an increased accumulation of Alzheimer's disease pathology. Although it is clear that obesity negatively affects cognition, more work is needed to better understand how aging plays a role and how brain structure and brain function might mediate the relationship of obesity and age on cognition. Guided by the STAC and the STAC-R models, we provide a roadmap for future investigations of the role of obesity on cognition across the life span.

Obesity and Aging: Consequences for Cognition, Brain Structure and Brain Function

PubMed Central

Bischof, Gérard N.; Park, Denise C.

2017-01-01

Objective This review focuses on the relationship between obesity and aging and how these interact together to affect cognitive function. The topics covered are guided by the Scaffolding Theory of Aging and Cognition (STAC; Park & Reuter-Lorenz, 2009—a conceptual model designed to relate brain structure and function to one’s level of cognitive ability. Methods The initial literature search was focused on normal aging and was guided by the key words, “aging, cognition, and obesity” in “PUBMED”. In a second search we added key words related to neuropathology including words “Alzheimer’s Disease”, “Vascular dementia” (VaD) and “Mild Cognitive Impairment” (MCI). Results The data suggest that being overweight or obese in midlife may be more detrimental to subsequent age-related cognitive decline than being overweight or obese at later stages of the lifespan. These effects are likely mediated by the accelerated effects obesity has on the integrity of neural structures, including both gray and white matter. Further epidemiological studies have provided evidence that obesity in mid-life is linked to an increased risk for AD and VaD, most likely via an increased accumulation of AD pathology. Conclusion While it is clear that obesity negatively affects cognition, more work is needed to better understand how aging plays a role and how brain structure and brain function might mediate the relationship of obesity and age on cognition. Guided by the STAC and the STAC-R models, we provide a roadmap for future investigations of the role of obesity on cognition across the lifespan. PMID:26107577

The genetic basis for cognitive ability, memory, and depression symptomatology in middle-aged and elderly chinese twins.

PubMed

Xu, Chunsheng; Sun, Jianping; Ji, Fuling; Tian, Xiaocao; Duan, Haiping; Zhai, Yaoming; Wang, Shaojie; Pang, Zengchang; Zhang, Dongfeng; Zhao, Zhongtang; Li, Shuxia; Hjelmborg, Jacob V B; Christensen, Kaare; Tan, Qihua

2015-02-01

The genetic influences on aging-related phenotypes, including cognition and depression, have been well confirmed in the Western populations. We performed the first twin-based analysis on cognitive performance, memory and depression status in middle-aged and elderly Chinese twins, representing the world's largest and most rapidly aging population. The sample consisted of 384 twin pairs with a median age of 50 years. Cognitive function was measured using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scale; memory was assessed using the revised Wechsler Adult Intelligence scale; depression symptomatology was evaluated by the self-reported 30-item Geriatric Depression (GDS-30)scale. Both univariate and multivariate twin models were fitted to the three phenotypes with full and nested models and compared to select the best fitting models. Univariate analysis showed moderate-to-high genetic influences with heritability 0.44 for cognition and 0.56 for memory. Multivariate analysis by the reduced Cholesky model estimated significant genetic (rG = 0.69) and unique environmental (rE = 0.25) correlation between cognitive ability and memory. The model also estimated weak but significant inverse genetic correlation for depression with cognition (-0.31) and memory (-0.28). No significant unique environmental correlation was found for depression with other two phenotypes. In conclusion, there can be a common genetic architecture for cognitive ability and memory that weakly correlates with depression symptomatology, but in the opposite direction.

Quantifying the effect of organic aerosol aging and intermediate-volatility emissions on regional-scale aerosol pollution in China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Bin; Wang, Shuxiao; Donahue, Neil M.; Jathar, Shantanu H.; Huang, Xiaofeng; Wu, Wenjing; Hao, Jiming; Robinson, Allen L.

2016-01-01

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is one of the least understood constituents of fine particles; current widely-used models cannot predict its loadings or oxidation state. Recent laboratory experiments demonstrated the importance of several new processes, including aging of SOA from traditional precursors, aging of primary organic aerosol (POA), and photo-oxidation of intermediate volatility organic compounds (IVOCs). However, evaluating the effect of these processes in the real atmosphere is challenging. Most models used in previous studies are over-simplified and some key reaction trajectories are not captured, and model parameters are usually phenomenological and lack experimental constraints. Here we comprehensively assess the effect of organic aerosol (OA) aging and intermediate-volatility emissions on regional-scale OA pollution with a state-of-the-art model framework and experimentally constrained parameters. We find that OA aging and intermediate-volatility emissions together increase OA and SOA concentrations in Eastern China by about 40% and a factor of 10, respectively, thereby improving model-measurement agreement significantly. POA and IVOCs both constitute over 40% of OA concentrations, and IVOCs constitute over half of SOA concentrations; this differs significantly from previous apportionment of SOA sources. This study facilitates an improved estimate of aerosol-induced climate and health impacts, and implies a shift from current fine-particle control policies. PMID:27350423

Basic Curriculum Guide--Science. Grades K-6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Starr, John W., 3rd., Ed.

GRADES OR AGES: K-6. SUBJECT MATTER: Science. ORGANIZATION AND PHYSICAL APPEARANCE: The guide is in two parts--the background, philosophy, and instructional principles of science teaching, including a resource unit model, and the development by grade level of the various basic scientific concepts. The guide also includes information of…

Workplace Solutions for Women under Eldercare Pressure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winfield, Fairlee E.

1987-01-01

The author states that caring for elderly relatives is being added to women's traditional roles of wife, mother, and homemaker, as well as their new role as worker. She cites trends, including the aging of the population, and problems, including loss of worker productivity. Model corporate solutions are presented. (CH)

Bias in food intake reporting in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes: the role of body size, age and gender.

PubMed

Maffeis, Claudio; Schutz, Yves; Fornari, Elena; Marigliano, Marco; Tomasselli, Francesca; Tommasi, Mara; Chini, Veronica; Morandi, Anita

2017-05-01

An assessment of total daily energy intake is helpful in planning the overall treatment of children with type 1 diabetes (T1D). However, energy intake misreporting may hinder nutritional intervention. To assess the plausibility of energy intake reporting and the potential role of gender, body mass index (BMI) z-score (z-BMI), disease duration and insulin requirement in energy intake misreporting in a sample of children and adolescents with T1D. The study included 58 children and adolescents aged 8-16 yr with T1D. Anthropometry, blood pressure and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) were measured. Subjects were instructed to wear a SenseWear Pro Armband (SWA) for 3 consecutive days, including a weekend day and to fill out with their parents a weighed dietary record for the same days. Predicted energy expenditure (pEE) was calculated by age and gender specific equations, including gender, age, weight, height and physical activity level (assessed by SWA). The percent reported energy intake (rEI)/pEE ratio was used as an estimate of the plausibility of dietary reporting. Misreporting of food intake, especially under-reporting, was common in children and adolescents with T1D: more than one-third of participants were classified as under-reporters and 10% as over-reporters. Age, z-BMI and male gender were associated with the risk of under-reporting (model R 2  = 0.5). Waist circumference was negatively associated with the risk of over-reporting (model R 2  = 0.25). Children and adolescents with T1D frequently under-report their food intake. Age, gender and z-BMI contribute to identify potential under-reporters. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trajectories and Personality Correlates of Change in Perceptions of Physical and Mental Health across Adulthood and Old Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morack, Jennifer; Infurna, Frank J.; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2013-01-01

Subjective health is known to predict later outcomes, including survival. However, less is known about subjective health changes across adulthood, how personality moderates those changes, and whether such associations differ with age. We applied growth models to 10 waves of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey…

The Structure of Autism Symptoms as Measured by the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norris, Megan; Lecavalier, Luc; Edwards, Michael C.

2012-01-01

The current study tested several competing models of the autism phenotype using data from modules 1 and 3 of the ADOS. Participants included individuals with ASDs aged 3-18 years (N = 1,409) from the AGRE database. Confirmatory factor analyses were performed on total samples and subsamples based on age and level of functioning. Three primary…

[Establishment of the prediction model for ischemic cardiovascular disease of elderly male population under current health care program].

PubMed

Chen, Jin-hong; Wu, Hai-yun; He, Kun-lun; He, Yao; Qin, Yin-he

2010-10-01

To establish and verify the prediction model for ischemic cardiovascular disease (ICVD) among the elderly population who were under the current health care programs. Statistical analysis on data from physical examination, hospitalization of the past years, from questionnaire and telephone interview was carried out in May, 2003. Data was from a hospital which implementing a health care program. Baseline population with a proportion of 4:1 was randomly selected to generate both module group and verification group. Baseline data was induced to make the verification group into regression model of module group and to generate the predictive value. Distinguished ability with area under ROC curve and the predictive veracity were verified through comparing the predictive incidence rate and actual incidence rate of every deciles group by Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Predictive veracity of the prediction model at population level was verified through comparing the predictive 6-year incidence rates of ICVD with actual 6-year accumulative incidence rates of ICVD with error rate calculated. The samples included 2271 males over the age of 65 with 1817 people for modeling population and 454 for verified population. All of the samples were stratified into two layers to establish hierarchical Cox proportional hazard regression model, including one advanced age group (greater than or equal to 75 years old), and another elderly group (less than 75 years old). Data from the statically analysis showed that the risk factors in aged group were age, systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level, while protective factor was high density lipoprotein;in advanced age group, the risk factors were body weight index, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol level, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level, while protective factor was HDL-C. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) and 95%CI were 0.723 and 0.687 - 0.759 respectively. Discriminating power was good. All individual predictive ICVD cumulative incidence and actual incidence were analyzed using Hosmer-Lemeshow test, χ(2) = 1.43, P = 0.786, showing that the predictive veracity was good. The stratified Cox Hazards Regression model was used to establish prediction model of the aged male population under a certain health care program. The common prediction factor of the two age groups were: systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level and HDL-C. The area under the ROC curve of the verification group was 0.723, showing that the distinguished ability was good and the predict ability at the individual level and at the group level were also satisfactory. It was feasible to using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model for predicting the population groups.

Oceanic lithosphere and asthenosphere - Thermal and mechanical structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, G.; Yuen, D. A.; Froidevaux, C.

1976-01-01

A coupled thermomechanical subsolidus model of the oceanic lithosphere and asthenosphere is developed which includes vertical heat conduction, a temperature-dependent thermal conductivity, heat advection by a horizontal and vertical mass flow that depends on depth and age, contributions of viscous dissipation or shear heating, a linear or nonlinear deformation law relating shear stress and strain rate, as well as a temperature- and pressure-dependent viscosity. The model requires a constant horizontal velocity and temperature at the surface, but zero horizontal velocity and constant temperature at great depths. The depth- and age-dependent temperature, horizontal and vertical velocities, and viscosity structure of the lithosphere and asthenosphere are determined along with the age-dependent shear stress in those two zones. The ocean-floor topography, oceanic heat flow, and lithosphere thickness are deduced as functions of ocean-floor age; seismic velocity profiles which exhibit a marked low-velocity zone are constructed from the age-dependent geotherms and assumed values of the elastic parameters. It is found that simple boundary-layer cooling determines the thermal structure at young ages, while effects of viscous dissipation become more important at older ages.

Priming of microglia in a DNA-repair deficient model of accelerated aging.

PubMed

Raj, Divya D A; Jaarsma, Dick; Holtman, Inge R; Olah, Marta; Ferreira, Filipa M; Schaafsma, Wandert; Brouwer, Nieske; Meijer, Michel M; de Waard, Monique C; van der Pluijm, Ingrid; Brandt, Renata; Kreft, Karim L; Laman, Jon D; de Haan, Gerald; Biber, Knut P H; Hoeijmakers, Jan H J; Eggen, Bart J L; Boddeke, Hendrikus W G M

2014-09-01

Aging is associated with reduced function, degenerative changes, and increased neuroinflammation of the central nervous system (CNS). Increasing evidence suggests that changes in microglia cells contribute to the age-related deterioration of the CNS. The most prominent age-related change of microglia is enhanced sensitivity to inflammatory stimuli, referred to as priming. It is unclear if priming is due to intrinsic microglia ageing or induced by the ageing neural environment. We have studied this in Ercc1 mutant mice, a DNA repair-deficient mouse model that displays features of accelerated aging in multiple tissues including the CNS. In Ercc1 mutant mice, microglia showed hallmark features of priming such as an exaggerated response to peripheral lipopolysaccharide exposure in terms of cytokine expression and phagocytosis. Specific targeting of the Ercc1 deletion to forebrain neurons resulted in a progressive priming response in microglia exemplified by phenotypic alterations. Summarizing, these data show that neuronal genotoxic stress is sufficient to switch microglia from a resting to a primed state. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Autophagy - An Emerging Anti-Aging Mechanism

PubMed Central

Gelino, Sara; Hansen, Malene

2013-01-01

Autophagy is a cytoplasmic catabolic process that protects the cell against stressful conditions. Damaged cellular components are funneled by autophagy into the lysosomes, where they are degraded and can be re-used as alternative building blocks for protein synthesis and cellular repair. In contrast, aging is the gradual failure over time of cellular repair mechanisms that leads to the accumulation of molecular and cellular damage and loss of function. The cell’s capacity for autophagic degradation also declines with age, and this in itself may contribute to the aging process. Studies in model organisms ranging from yeast to mice have shown that single-gene mutations can extend lifespan in an evolutionarily conserved fashion, and provide evidence that the aging process can be modulated. Interestingly, autophagy is induced in a seemingly beneficial manner by many of the same perturbations that extend lifespan, including mutations in key signaling pathways such as the insulin/IGF-1 and TOR pathways. Here, we review recent progress, primarily derived from genetic studies with model organisms, in understanding the role of autophagy in aging and age-related diseases. PMID:23750326

Successful Aging and Subjective Well-Being Among Oldest-Old Adults

PubMed Central

Cho, Jinmyoung; Martin, Peter; Poon, Leonard W.

2015-01-01

Purpose of the Study: This research integrates successful aging and developmental adaptation models to empirically define the direct and indirect effects of 2 distal (i.e., education and past life experiences) and 5 proximal influences (i.e., physical functioning, cognitive functioning, physical health impairment, social resources, and perceived economic status) on subjective well-being. The proximal influences involved predictors outlined in most extant models of successful aging (e.g., Rowe & Kahn, 1998 [Rowe, J. W., & Kahn, R. L. (1998). Successful aging. New York: Pantheon Books.]). Our model extends such models by including distal impact as well as interactions between distal and proximal impacts. Design and Methods: Data were obtained from 234 centenarians and 72 octogenarians in the Georgia Centenarian Study. Structural equation modeling was conducted with Mplus 6.1. Results: Results showed significant direct effects of physical health impairment and social resources on positive aspects of subjective well-being among oldest-old adults. We also found significant indirect effects of cognitive functioning and education on positive affect among oldest-old adults. Social resources mediated the relationship between cognitive functioning and positive affect; and cognitive functioning and social resources mediated the relationship between education and positive affect. In addition, physical health impairment mediated the relationship between cognitive functioning and positive affect; and cognitive functioning and physical health impairment mediated the relationship between education and positive affect. Implications: Integrating 2 different models (i.e., successful aging and developmental adaptation) provided a comprehensive view of adaptation from a developmental perspective. PMID:25112594

Synergistic Effects of Physical Aging and Damage on Long-Term Behavior of Polymer Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brinson, L. Cate

1999-01-01

The research consisted of two major parts, first modeling and simulation of the combined effects of aging and damage on polymer composites and secondly an experimental phase examining composite response at elevated temperatures, again activating both aging and damage. For the simulation, a damage model for polymeric composite laminates operating at elevated temperatures was developed. Viscoelastic behavior of the material is accounted for via the correspondence principle and a variational approach is adopted to compute the temporal stresses within the laminate. Also, the effect of physical aging on ply level stress and on overall laminate behavior is included. An important feature of the model is that damage evolution predictions for viscoelastic laminates can be made. This allows us to track the mechanical response of the laminate up to large load levels though within the confines of linear viscoelastic constitutive behavior. An experimental investigation of microcracking and physical aging effects in polymer matrix composites was also pursued. The goal of the study was to assess the impact of aging on damage accumulation, in ten-ns of microcracking, and the impact of damage on aging and viscoelastic behavior. The testing was performed both at room and elevated temperatures on [+/- 45/903](sub s) and [02/903](sub s) laminates, both containing a set of 90 deg plies centrally located to facilitate investigation of microcracking. Edge replication and X-ray-radiography were utilized to quantify damage. Sequenced creep tests were performed to characterize viscoelastic and aging parameters. Results indicate that while the aging times studied have limited ]Influence on damage evolution, elevated temperature and viscoelastic effects have a profound effect on the damage mode seen. Some results are counterintuitive, including the lower strain to failure for elevated temperature tests and the catastrophic failure mode observed for the [+/- 45/9O3](sub s), specimens. The fracture toughness for transverse cracks increases with increasing temperature for both systems: transverse cracking was completely absent prior to failure in [+/- 45/903](sub s), and was suppressed for [02/903](sub s). No significant effect of damage on aging or viscoelastic parameters was observed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.

The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution ofmore » importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.« less

Empirically based models of oceanographic and biological influences on Pacific Herring recruitment in Prince William Sound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sewall, Fletcher; Norcross, Brenda; Mueter, Franz; Heintz, Ron

2018-01-01

Abundances of small pelagic fish can change dramatically over time and are difficult to forecast, partially due to variable numbers of fish that annually mature and recruit to the spawning population. Recruitment strength of age-3 Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in Prince William Sound, Alaska, is estimated in an age-structured model framework as a function of spawning stock biomass via a Ricker stock-recruitment model, and forecasted using the 10-year median recruitment estimates. However, stock size has little influence on subsequent numbers of recruits. This study evaluated the usefulness of herring recruitment models that incorporate oceanographic and biological variables. Results indicated herring recruitment estimates were significantly improved by modifying the standard Ricker model to include an index of young-of-the-year (YOY) Walleye Pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) abundance. The positive relationship between herring recruits-per-spawner and YOY pollock abundance has persisted through three decades, including the herring stock crash of the early 1990s. Including sea surface temperature, primary productivity, and additional predator or competitor abundances singly or in combination did not improve model performance. We suggest that synchrony of juvenile herring and pollock survival may be caused by increased abundance of their zooplankton prey, or high juvenile pollock abundance may promote prey switching and satiation of predators. Regardless of the mechanism, the relationship has practical application to herring recruitment forecasting, and serves as an example of incorporating ecosystem components into a stock assessment model.

How can we utilize livers from advanced aged donors for liver transplantation for hepatitis C?

PubMed

Uemura, Tadahiro; Nikkel, Lucas E; Hollenbeak, Christopher S; Ramprasad, Varun; Schaefer, Eric; Kadry, Zakiyah

2012-06-01

Advanced age donors have inferior outcomes of liver transplantation for Hepatitis C (HCV). Aged donors grafts may be transplanted into young or low model for end stage liver disease (MELD) patients in order to offset the effect of donor age. However, it is not well understood how to utilize liver grafts from advanced aged donors for HCV patients. Using the UNOS database, we retrospectively studied 7508 HCV patients who underwent primary liver transplantation. Risk factors for graft failure and graft survival using advanced aged grafts (donor age ≥ 60 years) were analyzed by Cox hazards models, donor risk index (DRI) and organ patient index (OPI). Recipient's age did not affect on graft survival regardless of donor age. Advanced aged grafts had significant inferior survival compared to younger aged grafts regardless of MELD score (P < 0.0001). Risk factors of HCV patients receiving advanced aged grafts included donation after cardiac death (DCD, HR: 1.69) and recent hospitalization (HR: 1.43). Advanced aged grafts showed significant difference in graft survival of HCV patients with stratification of DRI and OPI. In conclusion, there was no offsetting effect by use of advanced aged grafts into younger or low MELD patients. Advanced aged grafts, especially DCD, should be judiciously used for HCV patients with low MELD score. © 2012 The Authors. Transplant International © 2012 European Society for Organ Transplantation.

Experimental models for aging and their potential for novel drug discovery.

PubMed

Folch, Jaume; Busquets, Oriol; Sánchez-López, Miren EttchetoElena; Pallàs, Mercè; Beas-Zarate, Carlos; Marin, Miguel; Casadesus, Gemma; Olloquequi, Jordi; Auladell, Carme; Camins, Antoni

2017-07-07

The development of antiaging drugs is an interesting area of scientific research. In order to evaluate the beneficial effects of new potential drugs, it is necessary to gather the specific knowledge on the adequate preclinical models that are available. This review focuses on invertebrate and vertebrate preclinical models used to evaluate the efficacy of antiaging compounds, with the objective to extend lifespan and health span. Dietary restriction (DR), a common experimental process to extend lifespan in all organisms, is also discussed. Besides, classical antiaging drugs such as resveratrol, rapamycin and metformin, denominated DR mimetics, are reviewed. The main therapeutic targets of these drugs include sirtuins, IGF-1, and mTOR, all of them being modulated by DR. The National Institute on Aging (NIA) developed the Interventions Testing Program (ITP). At the preclinical level, the ITP uses genetically heterogeneous mice model (HET), which is probably the most suitable rodent model to study potential drugs preventing aging-related diseases. The accelerated-senescence mouse P8 is also an interesting rodent model for the research in the field of aging. Notwithstanding, non-human primates are still necessary prior to clinical trials, since they allow an easier extrapolation to humans due to their anatomical and physiological similarities. In this review, the different models and approaches for antiaging studies were evaluated. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Development of an aerobic capacity prediction model from one-mile run/walk performance in adolescents aged 13-16 years.

PubMed

Burns, Ryan D; Hannon, James C; Brusseau, Timothy A; Eisenman, Patricia A; Shultz, Barry B; Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Welk, Gregory J; Mahar, Matthew T

2016-01-01

A popular algorithm to predict VO2Peak from the one-mile run/walk test (1MRW) includes body mass index (BMI), which manifests practical issues in school settings. The purpose of this study was to develop an aerobic capacity model from 1MRW in adolescents independent of BMI. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13-16 years. The 1MRW was administered on an outside track and a laboratory VO2Peak test was conducted using a maximal treadmill protocol. Multiple linear regression was employed to develop the prediction model. Results yielded the following algorithm: VO2Peak = 7.34 × (1MRW speed in m s(-1)) + 0.23 × (age × sex) + 17.75. The New Model displayed a multiple correlation and prediction error of R = 0.81, standard error of the estimate = 4.78 ml kg(-1) · min(-1), with measured VO2Peak and good criterion-referenced (CR) agreement into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zone (Kappa = 0.62; percentage agreement = 84.4%; Φ = 0.62). The New Model was validated using k-fold cross-validation and showed homoscedastic residuals across the range of predicted scores. The omission of BMI did not compromise accuracy of the model. In conclusion, the New Model displayed good predictive accuracy and good CR agreement with measured VO2Peak in adolescents aged 13-16 years.

Palaeomagnetic dating method accounting for post-depositional remanence and its application to geomagnetic field modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, A.; Suttie, N.

2016-12-01

Sedimentary palaeomagnetic data may exhibit some degree of smoothing of the recorded field due to the gradual processes by which the magnetic signal is `locked-in' over time. Here we present a new Bayesian method to construct age-depth models based on palaeomagnetic data, taking into account and correcting for potential lock-in delay. The age-depth model is built on the widely used "Bacon" dating software by Blaauw and Christen (2011, Bayesian Analysis 6, 457-474) and is designed to combine both radiocarbon and palaeomagnetic measurements. To our knowledge, this is the first palaeomagnetic dating method that addresses the potential problems related post-depositional remanent magnetisation acquisition in age-depth modelling. Age-depth models, including site specific lock-in depth and lock-in filter function, produced with this method are shown to be consistent with independent results based on radiocarbon wiggle match dated sediment sections. Besides its primary use as a dating tool, our new method can also be used specifically to identify the most likely lock-in parameters for a specific record. We explore the potential to use these results to construct high-resolution geomagnetic field models based on sedimentary palaeomagnetic data, adjusting for smoothing induced by post-depositional remanent magnetisation acquisition. Potentially, this technique could enable reconstructions of Holocene geomagnetic field with the same amplitude of variability observed in archaeomagnetic field models for the past three millennia.

Comparison of age distributions estimated from environmental tracers by using binary-dilution and numerical models of fractured and folded karst: Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and West Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yager, Richard M.; Plummer, Niel; Kauffman, Leon J.; Doctor, Daniel H.; Nelms, David L.; Schlosser, Peter

2013-01-01

Measured concentrations of environmental tracers in spring discharge from a karst aquifer in the Shenandoah Valley, USA, were used to refine a numerical groundwater flow model. The karst aquifer is folded and faulted carbonate bedrock dominated by diffuse flow along fractures. The numerical model represented bedrock structure and discrete features (fault zones and springs). Concentrations of 3H, 3He, 4He, and CFC-113 in spring discharge were interpreted as binary dilutions of young (0–8 years) water and old (tracer-free) water. Simulated mixtures of groundwater are derived from young water flowing along shallow paths, with the addition of old water flowing along deeper paths through the model domain that discharge to springs along fault zones. The simulated median age of young water discharged from springs (5.7 years) is slightly older than the median age estimated from 3H/3He data (4.4 years). The numerical model predicted a fraction of old water in spring discharge (0.07) that was half that determined by the binary-dilution model using the 3H/3He apparent age and 3H and CFC-113 data (0.14). This difference suggests that faults and lineaments are more numerous or extensive than those mapped and included in the numerical model.

Mouse models rarely mimic the transcriptome of human neurodegenerative diseases: A systematic bioinformatics-based critique of preclinical models.

PubMed

Burns, Terry C; Li, Matthew D; Mehta, Swapnil; Awad, Ahmed J; Morgan, Alexander A

2015-07-15

Translational research for neurodegenerative disease depends intimately upon animal models. Unfortunately, promising therapies developed using mouse models mostly fail in clinical trials, highlighting uncertainty about how well mouse models mimic human neurodegenerative disease at the molecular level. We compared the transcriptional signature of neurodegeneration in mouse models of Alzheimer׳s disease (AD), Parkinson׳s disease (PD), Huntington׳s disease (HD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) to human disease. In contrast to aging, which demonstrated a conserved transcriptome between humans and mice, only 3 of 19 animal models showed significant enrichment for gene sets comprising the most dysregulated up- and down-regulated human genes. Spearman׳s correlation analysis revealed even healthy human aging to be more closely related to human neurodegeneration than any mouse model of AD, PD, ALS or HD. Remarkably, mouse models frequently upregulated stress response genes that were consistently downregulated in human diseases. Among potential alternate models of neurodegeneration, mouse prion disease outperformed all other disease-specific models. Even among the best available animal models, conserved differences between mouse and human transcriptomes were found across multiple animal model versus human disease comparisons, surprisingly, even including aging. Relative to mouse models, mouse disease signatures demonstrated consistent trends toward preserved mitochondrial function protein catabolism, DNA repair responses, and chromatin maintenance. These findings suggest a more complex and multifactorial pathophysiology in human neurodegeneration than is captured through standard animal models, and suggest that even among conserved physiological processes such as aging, mice are less prone to exhibit neurodegeneration-like changes. This work may help explain the poor track record of mouse-based translational therapies for neurodegeneration and provides a path forward to critically evaluate and improve animal models of human disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative model of the effects of contamination and space environment on in-flight aging of thermal coatings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanhove, Emilie; Roussel, Jean-François; Remaury, Stéphanie; Faye, Delphine; Guigue, Pascale

2014-09-01

The in-orbit aging of thermo-optical properties of thermal coatings critically impacts both spacecraft thermal balance and heating power consumption. Nevertheless, in-flight thermal coating aging is generally larger than the one measured on ground and the current knowledge does not allow making reliable predictions1. As a result, a large oversizing of thermal control systems is required. To address this issue, the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales has developed a low-cost experiment, called THERME, which enables to monitor the in-flight time-evolution of the solar absorptivity of a large variety of coatings, including commonly used coatings and new materials by measuring their temperature. This experiment has been carried out on sunsynchronous spacecrafts for more than 27 years, allowing thus the generation of a very large set of telemetry measurements. The aim of this work was to develop a model able to semi-quantitatively reproduce these data with a restraint number of parameters. The underlying objectives were to better understand the contribution of the different involved phenomena and, later on, to predict the thermal coating aging at end of life. The physical processes modeled include contamination deposition, UV aging of both contamination layers and intrinsic material and atomic oxygen erosion. Efforts were particularly focused on the satellite leading wall as this face is exposed to the highest variations in environmental conditions during the solar cycle. The non-monotonous time-evolution of the solar absorptivity of thermal coatings is shown to be due to a succession of contamination and contaminant erosion by atomic oxygen phased with the solar cycle.

A health economic model for evaluating a vaccine for the prevention of herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia in the UK.

PubMed

Moore, Lee; Remy, Vanessa; Martin, Monique; Beillat, Maud; McGuire, Alistair

2010-04-30

A live-attenuated vaccine aimed at preventing herpes zoster (HZ) and its main complication, post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) is available in Europe for immunocompetent adults aged 50 years and more. The study objective is to assess the cost effectiveness of a vaccination program for this population in the UK. A state-transition Markov model has been developed to simulate the natural history of HZ and PHN and to estimate the lifetime effects of vaccination in the UK. Several health states are defined including good health, HZ, PHN, and death. HZ and PHN health states are further divided to reflect pain severity. The model predicts that a vaccination strategy for those aged over 50 years would lead to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of pound13,077 per QALY gained from the NHS perspective, when compared to the current strategy of no vaccination. Age-group analyses show that the lowest ICERs ( pound10,984 and pound10,275 for NHS) are observed when vaccinating people between 60-64 and 65-69 years of age. Sensitivity analyses showed that results are sensitive to the duration of vaccine protection, discount rate, utility decrements and pain severity split used. Using the commonly accepted threshold of pound30,000 per QALY gained in the UK, most scenarios of vaccination programmes preventing HZ and PHN, including the potential use of a repeat dose, may be considered cost-effective by the NHS, especially within the 60 to 69 age-groups.

An analysis of dental development in Pleistocene Homo using skeletal growth and chronological age.

PubMed

Šešelj, Maja

2017-07-01

This study takes a new approach to interpreting dental development in Pleistocene Homo in comparison with recent modern humans. As rates of dental development and skeletal growth are correlated given age in modern humans, using age and skeletal growth in tandem yields more accurate dental development estimates. Here, I apply these models to fossil Homo to obtain more individualized predictions and interpretations of their dental development relative to recent modern humans. Proportional odds logistic regression models based on three recent modern human samples (N = 181) were used to predict permanent mandibular tooth development scores in five Pleistocene subadults: Homo erectus/ergaster, Neanderthals, and anatomically modern humans (AMHs). Explanatory variables include a skeletal growth indicator (i.e., diaphyseal femoral length), and chronological age. AMHs Lagar Velho 1 and Qafzeh 10 share delayed incisor development, but exhibit considerable idiosyncratic variation within and across tooth types, relative to each other and to the reference samples. Neanderthals Dederiyeh 1 and Le Moustier 1 exhibit delayed incisor coupled with advanced molar development, but differences are reduced when femoral diaphysis length is considered. Dental development in KNM-WT 15,000 Homo erectus/ergaster, while advanced for his age, almost exactly matches the predictions once femoral length is included in the models. This study provides a new interpretation of dental development in KNM-WT 15000 as primarily reflecting his faster rates of skeletal growth. While the two AMH specimens exhibit considerable individual variation, the Neanderthals exhibit delayed incisor development early and advanced molar development later in ontogeny. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Sexual orientation and self-rated health: the role of social capital, offence, threat of violence, and violence.

PubMed

Axelsson, Jakob; Modén, Birgit; Rosvall, Maria; Lindström, Martin

2013-07-01

To study the association between sexual orientation and self-rated health, including trust, offence, threat of violence, and violence. DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS/MEASUREMENT: The 2008 Public Health Survey in Skåne is a cross-sectional postal questionnaire study. A total of 28,198 persons aged 18-80 years responded (55%). Logistic regressions analysed the association between sexual orientation and self-rated health. 27.4% of all men and 30.0% of all women rated their health as poor. Poor self-rated health was significantly more prevalent in higher age, among immigrants, people with lower education, low social support, low trust, experience of being offended, experience of threat of violence and violence, and bisexual and other orientation. Homosexual and bisexual men and women had higher age-adjusted odds ratios of having felt offended compared to heterosexual respondents. The odds ratios of low trust, threat of violence (men), and experience of violence (women) were significant for respondents with bisexual orientation but not for respondents with homosexual orientation. In the age-adjusted model, no significant association was observed between homosexual orientation and poor self-rated health among women. All other associations between sexual orientation and health were significant in the age-adjusted model but non-significant in the multiple models. Associations between sexual orientation and health disappear after multiple adjustments including trust and experience of offence, threat of violence, and violence. The study suggests that the group with bisexual orientation seems to be more exposed to low social capital (trust), threat of violence, and violence than the group with homosexual orientation.

The effects of types of social networks, perceived social support, and loneliness on the health of older people: accounting for the social context.

PubMed

Stephens, Christine; Alpass, Fiona; Towers, Andy; Stevenson, Brendan

2011-09-01

To use an ecological model of ageing (Berkman, Glass, Brissette, & Seeman, 2000) which includes upstream social context factors and downstream social support factors to examine the effects of social networks on health. Postal survey responses from a representative population sample of New Zealanders aged 55 to 70 years (N = 6,662). Correlations and multiple regression analyses provided support for a model in which social context contributes to social network type, which affects perceived social support and loneliness, and consequent mental and physical health. Ethnicity was related to social networks and health but this was largely accounted for by other contextual variables measuring socioeconomic status. Gender and age were also significant variables in the model. Social network type is a useful way to assess social integration within this model of cascading effects. More detailed information could be gained through the development of our network assessment instruments for older people.

Global cardiovascular mortality risk in the adult Polish population: prospective assessment of the cohorts studied in multicentre national WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior studies.

PubMed

Piotrowski, Walerian; Waśkiewicz, Anna; Cicha-Mikołajczyk, Alicja

2016-01-01

To develop a global cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk model for the Polish population and to verify these data in the context of the SCORE risk algorithm. We analysed data obtained in two multicentre national population studies, the WOBASZ study which was conducted in 2003-2005 and included 14,769 subjects aged 20-74 years, and the WOBASZ Senior study which was conducted in 2007 and included 1096 subjects above 74 years of age. All these subjects were followed for survival status until 2012 and the cause of death was determined. The mean duration of follow-up was 8.2 years for WOBASZ study participants and about 5 years for WOBASZ Senior study participants. Overall, 1436 subjects died, including 568 due to CVD. For the purpose of our analysis of overall and CVD mortality, 15 established risk factors were selected. Survival was analysed separately in WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior study participants. Statistical methods included descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox proportional hazard models, and the SCORE risk algorithm. Measure of incompatibility of the SCORE risk model to the Polish population was determined as the difference between mortality rates by the SCORE risk quartiles and the Cox approach. During the 8-year follow-up of the WOBASZ study population, mortality due to CVD was 38% among men and 31% among women. The most common causes of CVD mortality were ischaemic heart disease (IHD, 33%) followed by cerebro-vascular disease (17%) in men, and cerebrovascular disease (31%) followed by IHD (23%) in women. We found significant differences between men and women in regard to survival curves for both overall mortality and CVD mortality (p < 0.0001). For overall mortality among men and women, nearly all selected risk factors were shown to be significant in univariate analyses, except for high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level and the total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio in men, and smoking status in women. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors in men included age, glucose level, systolic blood pressure, and smoking status. In women, independent predictors were age, smoking status, and diabetes. During the 5-year follow-up of the WOBASZ Senior study population, mortality due to CVD was 48% among men and 58% among women. The most common cause of CVD mortality in both men and women was IHD (29% and 24%, respectively), followed by cerebrovascular disease (16% and 21%, respectively). We found significant differences between men and women in regard to survival curves for overall mortality (p < 0.0001) but not for CVD mortality (p = 0.0755). Due to the fact that survival curves for CVD mortality did not differ between men and women, we estimated the cut-off age for no survival difference in the WOBASZ study. By selecting the oldest patients and adding them to the WOBASZ Senior cohort, we obtained the cut-off age of 70 years above which the survival curves were not significantly different between men and women. In univariate analyses, independent predictors in men were age and creatinine level. These factors remained significant in multivariate analysis. In women above 74 years of age, independent predictors in univariate analyses included age, HDL-C level, creatinine level, total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio, and smoking status. Age, HDL-C level, creatinine level, and smoking status remained independent predictors of overall mortality in multivariate analysis. For CVD mortality, significant predictors were the same as for overall mortality. In women, significant predictors in uni- and multivariate analyses were age and smoking status. Overall disagreement between CVD mortality rates by the SCORE risk model and the Cox model was 5.7% in men and 2% in women. 1. Long-term follow-up of WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior study participants allowed assessment of the inde-pendent association of the evaluated cardiovascular risk factors with CVD mortality in the Polish population. 2. Validation of the SCORE risk algorithm to estimate individual global CVD risk in the Polish population showed a high predictive value of this algorithm.

Estimated aortic stiffness is independently associated with cardiac baroreflex sensitivity in humans: role of ageing and habitual endurance exercise.

PubMed

Pierce, G L; Harris, S A; Seals, D R; Casey, D P; Barlow, P B; Stauss, H M

2016-09-01

We hypothesised that differences in cardiac baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) would be independently associated with aortic stiffness and augmentation index (AI), clinical biomarkers of cardiovascular disease risk, among young sedentary and middle-aged/older sedentary and endurance-trained adults. A total of 36 healthy middle-aged/older (age 55-76 years, n=22 sedentary and n=14 endurance-trained) and 5 young sedentary (age 18-31 years) adults were included in a cross-sectional study. A subset of the middle-aged/older sedentary adults (n=12) completed an 8-week-aerobic exercise intervention. Invasive brachial artery blood pressure waveforms were used to compute spontaneous cardiac BRS (via sequence technique), estimated aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) and AI (AI, via brachial-aortic transfer function and wave separation analysis). In the cross-sectional study, cardiac BRS was 71% lower in older compared with young sedentary adults (P<0.05), but only 40% lower in older adults who performed habitual endurance exercise (P=0.03). In a regression model that included age, sex, resting heart rate, mean arterial pressure (MAP), body mass index and maximal exercise oxygen uptake, estimated aortic PWV (β±s.e.=-5.76±2.01, P=0.01) was the strongest predictor of BRS (model R(2)=0.59, P<0.001). The 8-week-exercise intervention improved BRS by 38% (P=0.04) and this change in BRS was associated with improved aortic PWV (r=-0.65, P=0.044, adjusted for changes in MAP). Age- and endurance-exercise-related differences in cardiac BRS are independently associated with corresponding alterations in aortic PWV among healthy adults, consistent with a mechanistic link between variations in the sensitivity of the baroreflex and aortic stiffness with age and exercise.

Estimated Aortic Stiffness is Independently Associated with Cardiac Baroreflex Sensitivity in Humans: Role of Aging and Habitual Endurance Exercise

PubMed Central

Pierce, Gary L.; Harris, Stephen A.; Seals, Douglas R.; Casey, Darren P.; Barlow, Patrick B.; Stauss, Harald M.

2016-01-01

We hypothesized that differences in cardiac baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) would be independently associated with aortic stiffness and augmentation index (AI), clinical biomarkers of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, among young sedentary and middle-aged/older sedentary and endurance-trained adults. A total of 36 healthy middle-aged/older (age 55-76 years, n=22 sedentary; n=14 endurance-trained) and 5 young sedentary (age 18-31 years) adults were included in a cross-sectional study. A subset of the middle-aged/older sedentary adults (n=12) completed an 8-week aerobic exercise intervention. Invasive brachial artery blood pressure waveforms were used to compute spontaneous cardiac BRS (via sequence technique) and estimated aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) and AI (AI, via brachial-aortic transfer function and wave separation analysis). In the cross-sectional study, cardiac BRS was 71% lower in older compared with young sedentary adults (P<0.05), but only 40% lower in older adults who performed habitual endurance exercise (P=0.03). In a regression model that included age, sex, resting heart rate, mean arterial pressure (MAP), body mass index and maximal exercise oxygen uptake, estimated aortic PWV (β±SE = −5.76 ± 2.01, P=0.01) was the strongest predictor of BRS (Model R2=0.59, P<0.001). The 8 week exercise intervention improved BRS by 38% (P=0.04) and this change in BRS was associated with improved aortic PWV (r=−0.65, P=0.044, adjusted for changes in MAP). Age- and endurance exercise-related differences in cardiac BRS are independently associated with corresponding alterations in aortic PWV among healthy adults, consistent with a mechanistic link between variations in the sensitivity of the baroreflex and aortic stiffness with age and exercise. PMID:26911535

Individual risk of cutaneous melanoma in New Zealand: developing a clinical prediction aid.

PubMed

Sneyd, Mary Jane; Cameron, Claire; Cox, Brian

2014-05-22

New Zealand and Australia have the highest melanoma incidence rates worldwide. In New Zealand, both the incidence and thickness have been increasing. Clinical decisions require accurate risk prediction but a simple list of genetic, phenotypic and behavioural risk factors is inadequate to estimate individual risk as the risk factors for melanoma have complex interactions. In order to offer tailored clinical management strategies, we developed a New Zealand prediction model to estimate individual 5-year absolute risk of melanoma. A population-based case-control study (368 cases and 270 controls) of melanoma risk factors provided estimates of relative risks for fair-skinned New Zealanders aged 20-79 years. Model selection techniques and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the important predictors. The relative risks for predictors were combined with baseline melanoma incidence rates and non-melanoma mortality rates to calculate individual probabilities of developing melanoma within 5 years. For women, the best model included skin colour, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, having a 1st degree relative with large moles, and a personal history of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). The model correctly classified 68% of participants; the C-statistic was 0.74. For men, the best model included age, place of occupation up to age 18 years, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, birthplace, and a history of NMSC. The model correctly classified 67% of cases; the C-statistic was 0.71. We have developed the first New Zealand risk prediction model that calculates individual absolute 5-year risk of melanoma. This model will aid physicians to identify individuals at high risk, allowing them to individually target surveillance and other management strategies, and thereby reduce the high melanoma burden in New Zealand.

Use of random regression to estimate genetic parameters of temperament across an age continuum in a crossbred cattle population.

PubMed

Littlejohn, B P; Riley, D G; Welsh, T H; Randel, R D; Willard, S T; Vann, R C

2018-05-12

The objective was to estimate genetic parameters of temperament in beef cattle across an age continuum. The population consisted predominantly of Brahman-British crossbred cattle. Temperament was quantified by: 1) pen score (PS), the reaction of a calf to a single experienced evaluator on a scale of 1 to 5 (1 = calm, 5 = excitable); 2) exit velocity (EV), the rate (m/sec) at which a calf traveled 1.83 m upon exiting a squeeze chute; and 3) temperament score (TS), the numerical average of PS and EV. Covariates included days of age and proportion of Bos indicus in the calf and dam. Random regression models included the fixed effects determined from the repeated measures models, except for calf age. Likelihood ratio tests were used to determine the most appropriate random structures. In repeated measures models, the proportion of Bos indicus in the calf was positively related with each calf temperament trait (0.41 ± 0.20, 0.85 ± 0.21, and 0.57 ± 0.18 for PS, EV, and TS, respectively; P < 0.01). There was an effect of contemporary group (combinations of season, year of birth, and management group) and dam age (P < 0.001) in all models. From repeated records analyses, estimates of heritability (h2) were 0.34 ± 0.04, 0.31 ± 0.04, and 0.39 ± 0.04, while estimates of permanent environmental variance as a proportion of the phenotypic variance (c2) were 0.30 ± 0.04, 0.31 ± 0.03, and 0.34 ± 0.04 for PS, EV, and TS, respectively. Quadratic additive genetic random regressions on Legendre polynomials of age were significant for all traits. Quadratic permanent environmental random regressions were significant for PS and TS, but linear permanent environmental random regressions were significant for EV. Random regression results suggested that these components change across the age dimension of these data. There appeared to be an increasing influence of permanent environmental effects and decreasing influence of additive genetic effects corresponding to increasing calf age for EV, and to a lesser extent for TS. Inherited temperament may be overcome by accumulating environmental stimuli with increases in age, especially after weaning.

Adolescents’ prospective screen time by gender and parental education, the mediation of parental influences

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The present study investigated associations in gender dyads of parents’ and adolescents’ time spent on television and video viewing (TV/DVD), and computer and electronic game use (PC/games) at the ages of 11 and 13 years. Possible mediating effects of parental modelling and parental regulation in the relationship between parental education and adolescents’ prospective TV/DVD and PC/game time were further examined. Methods A total of 908 adolescents, participating at both ages 11 and 13 years in the Norwegian HEalth In Adolescents (HEIA) cohort study (2007–2009), were included in the analyses. Data on adolescents’, mothers’ and fathers’ self reported time spent on TV/DVD and PC/games were measured at both time points by questionnaires. Correlation coefficients were used to examine gender dyads of parents’ and adolescents’ reports. Mediation analyses using linear regression investigated possible mediation effects of parental modelling and parental regulation in the prospective relationship between parental education and adolescents’ time spent on TV/DVD and PC/games between the ages of 11 and 13 years. Results Correlations of screen time behaviours in gender dyads of parents and adolescents showed significant associations in time spent on TV/DVD at the age of 11 and 13 years. Associations between mothers and sons and between fathers and daughters were also observed in time spent on PC/games at the age of 11 years. Maternal and paternal modelling was further found to mediate the relationship between parental education and adolescents’ prospective TV/DVD time between the ages of 11 and 13 years. No mediation effect was observed for parental regulation, however a decrease in both maternal and paternal regulation at the age of 11 years significantly predicted more TV/DVD time among adolescents at the age of 13 years. Conclusion Cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships were observed in gender dyads of parents’ and adolescents’ screen time behaviours at the ages of 11 and 13 years, and further studies including both parents and their children should be emphasized. Moreover, maternal and paternal modelling were found to be important target variables in interventions aiming to reduce social differences by parental education in adolescents’ prospective time spent on TV/DVD. PMID:23829607

Petrology and age of alkalic lava from the Ratak Chain of the Marshall Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, A.S.; Pringle, M.S.; Pickthorn, L.-B.G.; Clague, D.A.; Schwab, W.C.

1989-01-01

Volcanic rock dredged from the flanks of four volcanic edifices in the Ratak chain of the Marshall Islands consist of alkalic lava that erupted above sea level or in shallow water. Compositions of recovered samples are predominantly differentiated alkalic basalt and hawaiite but include strongly alkalic melilitite. Whole rock 40Ar/39Ar total fusion and incremental heating ages of 87.3 ?? 0.6 Ma and 82.2 ?? 1.6 Ma determined for samples from Erikub Seamount and Ratak Guyot, respectively, are within the range predicted by plate rotation models but show no age progression consistent with a simple hot spot model. Variations in isotopic and some incompatible element ratios suggest interisland heterogeneity. -from Authors

Cardiac Aging: From Molecular Mechanisms to Significance in Human Health and Disease

PubMed Central

Dai, Dao-Fu; Chen, Tony; Johnson, Simon C.; Szeto, Hazel

2012-01-01

Abstract Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the major causes of death in the western world. The incidence of cardiovascular disease as well as the rate of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity increase exponentially in the elderly population, suggesting that age per se is a major risk factor of CVDs. The physiologic changes of human cardiac aging mainly include left ventricular hypertrophy, diastolic dysfunction, valvular degeneration, increased cardiac fibrosis, increased prevalence of atrial fibrillation, and decreased maximal exercise capacity. Many of these changes are closely recapitulated in animal models commonly used in an aging study, including rodents, flies, and monkeys. The application of genetically modified aged mice has provided direct evidence of several critical molecular mechanisms involved in cardiac aging, such as mitochondrial oxidative stress, insulin/insulin-like growth factor/PI3K pathway, adrenergic and renin angiotensin II signaling, and nutrient signaling pathways. This article also reviews the central role of mitochondrial oxidative stress in CVDs and the plausible mechanisms underlying the progression toward heart failure in the susceptible aging hearts. Finally, the understanding of the molecular mechanisms of cardiac aging may support the potential clinical application of several “anti-aging” strategies that treat CVDs and improve healthy cardiac aging. PMID:22229339

A mathematical model for evaluating the impact of vaccination schedules: application to Neisseria meningitidis.

PubMed

Tuckwell, H C; Hanslik, T; Valleron, A J; Flahault, A

2003-06-01

A mathematical model is described which determines the impact of a schedule of vaccination on the time course of a certain class of diseases. The data are the demographic variables and parameters and age-dependent non-fatal and fatal case rates. Given the age- and time-dependent rates of vaccination including coverage and corresponding efficacies, various schedules may be distinguished by either the absolute numbers of cases and deaths avoided or the numbers of cases and deaths avoided per dose of vaccine. The model was applied to meningo-coccal serogroup C disease in France. The outcomes of six different vaccination schedules were examined. In absolute terms, a schedule in which all individuals aged between 2 and 20 years were vaccinated performed best, but this schedule and that in which only 1-year olds were vaccinated performed equally and best in terms of cases prevented, but not lives saved, per dose.

Gerontechnology acceptance by elderly Hong Kong Chinese: a senior technology acceptance model (STAM).

PubMed

Chen, Ke; Chan, Alan Hoi Shou

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and test a senior technology acceptance model (STAM) aimed at understanding the acceptance of gerontechnology by older Hong Kong Chinese people. The proposed STAM extended previous technology acceptance models and theories by adding age-related health and ability characteristics of older people. The proposed STAM was empirically tested using a cross-sectional questionnaire survey with a sample of 1012 seniors aged 55 and over in Hong Kong. The result showed that STAM was strongly supported and could explain 68% of the variance in the use of gerontechnology. For older Hong Kong Chinese, individual attributes, which include age, gender, education, gerontechnology self-efficacy and anxiety, and health and ability characteristics, as well as facilitating conditions explicitly and directly affected technology acceptance. These were better predictors of gerontechnology usage behaviour (UB) than the conventionally used attitudinal factors (usefulness and ease of use).

Models of sarcopenia: Short review.

PubMed

Palus, S; Springer, J I; Doehner, W; von Haehling, S; Anker, M; Anker, S D; Springer, J

2017-07-01

Approximately 40-50% of the population over 80years of age suffers from sarcopenia making this condition a major geriatric clinical disorder and a key challenge to healthy aging. The hallmark symptom of sarcopenia is the loss of muscle mass and strength without the loss of overall body weight. Sarcopenic patients are likely to have worse clinical outcomes and higher mortality compared to healthy individuals. This review will focus on animal models designed to study sarcopenia including hind-limb unloading, de-nervation, and immobilization by using casts or wire strategies, as well as using aged rodents. Currently there are no registered treatments for sarcopenia. Most sarcopenic individuals show signs of physical frailty, which leads to increases the prevalence of balance disorders, falls, fractures and pain. Therefore, is it essential to develop and use relevant animal models to further the research on sarcopenia therapy? Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A risk tertiles model for predicting mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: age, plateau pressure, and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at ARDS onset can predict mortality.

PubMed

Villar, Jesús; Pérez-Méndez, Lina; Basaldúa, Santiago; Blanco, Jesús; Aguilar, Gerardo; Toral, Darío; Zavala, Elizabeth; Romera, Miguel A; González-Díaz, Gumersindo; Nogal, Frutos Del; Santos-Bouza, Antonio; Ramos, Luís; Macías, Santiago; Kacmarek, Robert M

2011-04-01

Predicting mortality has become a necessary step for selecting patients for clinical trials and defining outcomes. We examined whether stratification by tertiles of respiratory and ventilatory variables at the onset of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) identifies patients with different risks of death in the intensive care unit. We performed a secondary analysis of data from 220 patients included in 2 multicenter prospective independent trials of ARDS patients mechanically ventilated with a lung-protective strategy. Using demographic, pulmonary, and ventilation data collected at ARDS onset, we derived and validated a simple prediction model based on a population-based stratification of variable values into low, middle, and high tertiles. The derivation cohort included 170 patients (all from one trial) and the validation cohort included 50 patients (all from a second trial). Tertile distribution for age, plateau airway pressure (P(plat)), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at ARDS onset identified subgroups with different mortalities, particularly for the highest-risk tertiles: age (> 62 years), P(plat) (> 29 cm H(2)O), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) (< 112 mm Hg). Risk was defined by the number of coexisting high-risk tertiles: patients with no high-risk tertiles had a mortality of 12%, whereas patients with 3 high-risk tertiles had 90% mortality (P < .001). A prediction model based on tertiles of patient age, P(plat), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at the time the patient meets ARDS criteria identifies patients with the lowest and highest risk of intensive care unit death.

Transdiagnostic Risk Calculator for the Automatic Detection of Individuals at Risk and the Prediction of Psychosis: Second Replication in an Independent National Health Service Trust.

PubMed

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Werbeloff, Nomi; Rutigliano, Grazia; Oliver, Dominic; Davies, Cathy; Stahl, Daniel; McGuire, Philip; Osborn, David

2018-06-12

The benefits of indicated primary prevention among individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) are limited by the difficulty in detecting these individuals. To overcome this problem, a transdiagnostic, clinically based, individualized risk calculator has recently been developed and subjected to a first external validation in 2 different catchment areas of the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Trust. Second external validation of real world, real-time electronic clinical register-based cohort study. All individuals who received a first ICD-10 index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the Camden and Islington (C&I) NHS Trust between 2009 and 2016 were included. The model previously validated included age, gender, ethnicity, age by gender, and ICD-10 index diagnosis to predict the development of any ICD-10 nonorganic psychosis. The model's performance was measured using Harrell's C-index. This study included a total of 13702 patients with an average age of 40 (range 16-99), 52% were female, and most were of white ethnicity (64%). There were no CHR-P or child/adolescent services in the C&I Trust. The C&I and SLaM Trust samples also differed significantly in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, and distribution of index diagnosis. Despite these significant differences, the original model retained an acceptable predictive performance (Harrell's C of 0.73), which is comparable to that of CHR-P tools currently recommended for clinical use. This risk calculator may pragmatically support an improved transdiagnostic detection of at-risk individuals and psychosis prediction even in NHS Trusts in the United Kingdom where CHR-P services are not provided.

Assessing Susceptibility to Age-Related Macular Degeneration With Genetic Markers and Environmental Factors

PubMed Central

Chen, Yuhong; Zeng, Jiexi; Zhao, Chao; Wang, Kevin; Trood, Elizabeth; Buehler, Jeanette; Weed, Matthew; Kasuga, Daniel; Bernstein, Paul S.; Hughes, Guy; Fu, Victoria; Chin, Jessica; Lee, Clara; Crocker, Maureen; Bedell, Matthew; Salasar, Francesca; Yang, Zhenglin; Goldbaum, Michael; Ferreyra, Henry; Freeman, William R.; Kozak, Igor; Zhang, Kang

2014-01-01

Objectives To evaluate the independent and joint effects of genetic factors and environmental variables on advanced forms of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), including geographic atrophy and choroidal neovascularization, and to develop a predictive model with genetic and environmental factors included. Methods Demographic information, including age at onset, smoking status, and body mass index, was collected for 1844 participants. Genotypes were evaluated for 8 variants in 5 genes related to AMD. Unconditional logistic regression analyses were performed to generate a risk predictive model. Results All genetic variants showed a strong association with AMD. Multivariate odds ratios were 3.52 (95% confidence interval, 2.08-5.94) for complement factor H, CFH rs1061170 CC, 4.21 (2.30-7.70) for CFH rs2274700 CC, 0.46 (0.27-0.80) for C2 rs9332739 CC/CG, 0.44 (0.30-0.66) for CFB rs641153 TT/CT, 10.99 (6.04-19.97) for HTRA1/LOC387715 rs10490924 TT, and 2.66 (1.43-4.96) for C3 rs2230199 GG. Smoking was independently associated with advanced AMD after controlling for age, sex, body mass index, and all genetic variants. Conclusion CFH confers more risk to the bilaterality of geographic atrophy, whereas HTRA1/LOC387715 contributes more to the bilaterality of choroidal neovascularization. C3 confers more risk for geographic atrophy than choroidal neovascularization. Risk models with combined genetic and environmental factors have notable discrimination power. Clinical Relevance Early detection and risk prediction of AMD could help to improve the prognosis of AMD and to reduce the outcome of blindness. Targeting high-risk individuals for surveillance and clinical interventions may help reduce disease burden. PMID:21402993

Brain aging in the canine: a diet enriched in antioxidants reduces cognitive dysfunction.

PubMed

Cotman, Carl W; Head, Elizabeth; Muggenburg, Bruce A; Zicker, S; Milgram, Norton W

2002-01-01

Animal models that simulate various aspects of human brain aging are an essential step in the development of interventions to manage cognitive dysfunction in the elderly. Over the past several years we have been studying cognition and neuropathology in the aged-canine (dog). Like humans, canines naturally accumulate deposits of beta-amyloid (Abeta) in the brain with age. Further, canines and humans share the same Abeta sequence and also first show deposits of the longer Abeta1-42 species followed by the deposition of Abeta1-40. Aged canines like humans also show increased oxidative damage. As a function of age, canines show impaired learning and memory on tasks similar to those used in aged primates and humans. The extent of Abeta deposition correlates with the severity of cognitive dysfunction in canines. To test the hypothesis that a cascade of mechanisms centered on oxidative damage and Abeta results in cognitive dysfunction we have evaluated the cognitive effects of an antioxidant diet in aged canines. The diet resulted in a significant improvement in the ability of aged but not young animals to acquire progressively more difficult learning tasks (e.g. oddity discrimination learning). The canine represent a higher animal model to study the earliest declines in the cognitive continuum that includes age associated memory impairments (AAMI) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) observed in human aging. Thus, studies in the canine model suggest that oxidative damage impairs cognitive function and that antioxidant treatment can result in significant improvements, supporting the need for further human studies. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science Inc.

Age- and bite-structured models for vector-borne diseases.

PubMed

Rock, K S; Wood, D A; Keeling, M J

2015-09-01

The biology and behaviour of biting insects is a vitally important aspect in the spread of vector-borne diseases. This paper aims to determine, through the use of mathematical models, what effect incorporating vector senescence and realistic feeding patterns has on disease. A novel model is developed to enable the effects of age- and bite-structure to be examined in detail. This original PDE framework extends previous age-structured models into a further dimension to give a new insight into the role of vector biting and its interaction with vector mortality and spread of disease. Through the PDE model, the roles of the vector death and bite rates are examined in a way which is impossible under the traditional ODE formulation. It is demonstrated that incorporating more realistic functions for vector biting and mortality in a model may give rise to different dynamics than those seen under a more simple ODE formulation. The numerical results indicate that the efficacy of control methods that increase vector mortality may not be as great as predicted under a standard host-vector model, whereas other controls including treatment of humans may be more effective than previously thought. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intensity level for exercise training in fibromyalgia by using mathematical models.

PubMed

Lemos, Maria Carolina D; Valim, Valéria; Zandonade, Eliana; Natour, Jamil

2010-03-22

It has not been assessed before whether mathematical models described in the literature for prescriptions of exercise can be used for fibromyalgia syndrome patients. The objective of this paper was to determine how age-predicted heart rate formulas can be used with fibromyalgia syndrome populations as well as to find out which mathematical models are more accurate to control exercise intensity. A total of 60 women aged 18-65 years with fibromyalgia syndrome were included; 32 were randomized to walking training at anaerobic threshold. Age-predicted formulas to maximum heart rate ("220 minus age" and "208 minus 0.7 x age") were correlated with achieved maximum heart rate (HRMax) obtained by spiroergometry. Subsequently, six mathematical models using heart rate reserve (HRR) and age-predicted HRMax formulas were studied to estimate the intensity level of exercise training corresponding to heart rate at anaerobic threshold (HRAT) obtained by spiroergometry. Linear and nonlinear regression models were used for correlations and residues analysis for the adequacy of the models. Age-predicted HRMax and HRAT formulas had a good correlation with achieved heart rate obtained in spiroergometry (r = 0.642; p < 0.05). For exercise prescription in the anaerobic threshold intensity, the percentages were 52.2-60.6% HRR and 75.5-80.9% HRMax. Formulas using HRR and the achieved HRMax showed better correlation. Furthermore, the percentages of HRMax and HRR were significantly higher for the trained individuals (p < 0.05). Age-predicted formulas can be used for estimating HRMax and for exercise prescriptions in women with fibromyalgia syndrome. Karnoven's formula using heart rate achieved in ergometric test showed a better correlation. For the prescription of exercises in the threshold intensity, 52% to 60% HRR or 75% to 80% HRMax must be used in sedentary women with fibromyalgia syndrome and these values are higher and must be corrected for trained patients.

Intensity level for exercise training in fibromyalgia by using mathematical models

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background It has not been assessed before whether mathematical models described in the literature for prescriptions of exercise can be used for fibromyalgia syndrome patients. The objective of this paper was to determine how age-predicted heart rate formulas can be used with fibromyalgia syndrome populations as well as to find out which mathematical models are more accurate to control exercise intensity. Methods A total of 60 women aged 18-65 years with fibromyalgia syndrome were included; 32 were randomized to walking training at anaerobic threshold. Age-predicted formulas to maximum heart rate ("220 minus age" and "208 minus 0.7 × age") were correlated with achieved maximum heart rate (HRMax) obtained by spiroergometry. Subsequently, six mathematical models using heart rate reserve (HRR) and age-predicted HRMax formulas were studied to estimate the intensity level of exercise training corresponding to heart rate at anaerobic threshold (HRAT) obtained by spiroergometry. Linear and nonlinear regression models were used for correlations and residues analysis for the adequacy of the models. Results Age-predicted HRMax and HRAT formulas had a good correlation with achieved heart rate obtained in spiroergometry (r = 0.642; p < 0.05). For exercise prescription in the anaerobic threshold intensity, the percentages were 52.2-60.6% HRR and 75.5-80.9% HRMax. Formulas using HRR and the achieved HRMax showed better correlation. Furthermore, the percentages of HRMax and HRR were significantly higher for the trained individuals (p < 0.05). Conclusion Age-predicted formulas can be used for estimating HRMax and for exercise prescriptions in women with fibromyalgia syndrome. Karnoven's formula using heart rate achieved in ergometric test showed a better correlation. For the prescription of exercises in the threshold intensity, 52% to 60% HRR or 75% to 80% HRMax must be used in sedentary women with fibromyalgia syndrome and these values are higher and must be corrected for trained patients. PMID:20307323

A roadmap for the genetic analysis of renal aging

PubMed Central

Noordmans, Gerda A; Hillebrands, Jan-Luuk; van Goor, Harry; Korstanje, Ron

2015-01-01

Several studies show evidence for the genetic basis of renal disease, which renders some individuals more prone than others to accelerated renal aging. Studying the genetics of renal aging can help us to identify genes involved in this process and to unravel the underlying pathways. First, this opinion article will give an overview of the phenotypes that can be observed in age-related kidney disease. Accurate phenotyping is essential in performing genetic analysis. For kidney aging, this could include both functional and structural changes. Subsequently, this article reviews the studies that report on candidate genes associated with renal aging in humans and mice. Several loci or candidate genes have been found associated with kidney disease, but identification of the specific genetic variants involved has proven to be difficult. CUBN, UMOD, and SHROOM3 were identified by human GWAS as being associated with albuminuria, kidney function, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). These are promising examples of genes that could be involved in renal aging, and were further mechanistically evaluated in animal models. Eventually, we will provide approaches for performing genetic analysis. We should leverage the power of mouse models, as testing in humans is limited. Mouse and other animal models can be used to explain the underlying biological mechanisms of genes and loci identified by human GWAS. Furthermore, mouse models can be used to identify genetic variants associated with age-associated histological changes, of which Far2, Wisp2, and Esrrg are examples. A new outbred mouse population with high genetic diversity will facilitate the identification of genes associated with renal aging by enabling high-resolution genetic mapping while also allowing the control of environmental factors, and by enabling access to renal tissues at specific time points for histology, proteomics, and gene expression. PMID:26219736

Relationship of Echocardiographic Z Scores Adjusted for Body Surface Area to Age, Sex, Race, and Ethnicity: The Pediatric Heart Network Normal Echocardiogram Database.

PubMed

Lopez, Leo; Colan, Steven; Stylianou, Mario; Granger, Suzanne; Trachtenberg, Felicia; Frommelt, Peter; Pearson, Gail; Camarda, Joseph; Cnota, James; Cohen, Meryl; Dragulescu, Andreea; Frommelt, Michele; Garuba, Olukayode; Johnson, Tiffanie; Lai, Wyman; Mahgerefteh, Joseph; Pignatelli, Ricardo; Prakash, Ashwin; Sachdeva, Ritu; Soriano, Brian; Soslow, Jonathan; Spurney, Christopher; Srivastava, Shubhika; Taylor, Carolyn; Thankavel, Poonam; van der Velde, Mary; Minich, LuAnn

2017-11-01

Published nomograms of pediatric echocardiographic measurements are limited by insufficient sample size to assess the effects of age, sex, race, and ethnicity. Variable methodologies have resulted in a wide range of Z scores for a single measurement. This multicenter study sought to determine Z scores for common measurements adjusted for body surface area (BSA) and stratified by age, sex, race, and ethnicity. Data collected from healthy nonobese children ≤18 years of age at 19 centers with a normal echocardiogram included age, sex, race, ethnicity, height, weight, echocardiographic images, and measurements performed at the Core Laboratory. Z score models involved indexed parameters (X/BSA α ) that were normally distributed without residual dependence on BSA. The models were tested for the effects of age, sex, race, and ethnicity. Raw measurements from models with and without these effects were compared, and <5% difference was considered clinically insignificant because interobserver variability for echocardiographic measurements are reported as ≥5% difference. Of the 3566 subjects, 90% had measurable images. Appropriate BSA transformations (BSA α ) were selected for each measurement. Multivariable regression revealed statistically significant effects by age, sex, race, and ethnicity for all outcomes, but all effects were clinically insignificant based on comparisons of models with and without the effects, resulting in Z scores independent of age, sex, race, and ethnicity for each measurement. Echocardiographic Z scores based on BSA were derived from a large, diverse, and healthy North American population. Age, sex, race, and ethnicity have small effects on the Z scores that are statistically significant but not clinically important. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Donor milk volume and characteristics of donors and their children.

PubMed

Sierra-Colomina, Gemma; García-Lara, Nadia Raquel; Escuder-Vieco, Diana; Alonso-Díaz, Clara; Esteban, Eva María Andrés; Pallás-Alonso, Carmen Rosa

2014-05-01

Little is known regarding the effect of the characteristics of donors and their children on the volume of donor milk delivered to a human milk bank (HMB). Our study aimed to determine the relationship between different social and demographic variables of donors and their infants with the volume of human milk delivered. We included donors accepted at the Hospital Doce de Octubre HMB from January 1st, 2009 until April 31st, 2013, and who had finished their donation. Data of social and demographic characteristics of the donors and their children, and the total volume of DHM given were obtained from our HMB database. Included variables were previous donors, donor age, number of children, place of residence, gestational age of the infant at birth, child's age at the start of the donation, hospital admission, and death of the infant. A linear regression model was used to study the relationship between independent variables that were significant in bivariate analysis and the volume of donated milk. A total of 415 donations from 391 women were included. The median volume of milk delivered was 3.1l (IQR-interquartile range-1.3-8.3l). In the linear regression model, previous donors, smaller gestational age of children, and the start of donation at earlier stages of lactation were associated with a larger quantity of HMB donated (p≤0.001). Previous donors, smaller gestational age of children, and the start of donation at earlier stages of lactation are associated with a larger quantity of milk donated to the HMB. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefits and harms of lung cancer screening in HIV-infected individuals with CD4+ ≥ 500: a simulation study.

PubMed

Kong, Chung Yin; Sigel, Keith; Criss, Steven D; Sheehan, Deirdre F; Triplette, Matthew; Silverberg, Michael J; Henschke, Claudia I; Justice, Amy; Braithwaite, R Scott; Wisnivesky, Juan; Crothers, Kristina

2018-04-19

Lung cancer is the leading cause of non-AIDS-defining cancer deaths among HIV-infected individuals. Although lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) is endorsed by multiple national organizations, whether HIV-infected individuals would have similar benefit as uninfected individuals from lung cancer screening is unknown. Our objective was to determine the benefits and harms of lung cancer screening among HIV-infected individuals. We modified an existing simulation model, the Lung Cancer Policy Model, for HIV-infected patients. Veterans Aging Cohort Study, Kaiser Permanente Northern California HIV Cohort, and medical literature. Target population: HIV-infected current and former smokers. Lifetime. Population. Annual LDCT screening from ages 45, 50, or 55 until ages 72 or 77 years. Benefits assessed included lung cancer mortality reduction and life-years gained; harms assessed included numbers of LDCT examinations, false-positive results, and overdiagnosed cases. For HIV-infected patients with CD4 at least 500 and 100% antiretroviral therapy adherence, screening using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services criteria (age 55-77, 30 pack-years of smoking, current smoker or quit within 15 years of screening) would reduce lung cancer mortality by 18.9%, similar to the mortality reduction of uninfected individuals. Alternative screening strategies utilizing lower screening age and/or pack-years criteria increase mortality reduction, but require more LDCT examinations. Strategies assumed 100% screening adherence. Lung cancer screening reduces mortality in HIV-infected patients with CD4 at least l500, with a number of efficient strategies for eligibility, including the current Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services criteria.

Association between age, distress, and orientations to happiness in individuals with disabilities.

PubMed

Terrill, Alexandra L; Müller, Rachel; Jensen, Mark P; Molton, Ivan R; Ipsen, Catherine; Ravesloot, Craig

2015-02-01

To determine how age and distress are associated in individuals with disabilities, and how happiness and its components (meaning, pleasure, and engagement) mediate or moderate this relationship. These were cross-sectional analyses of survey data from 508 community-dwelling adults with a variety of self-reported health conditions and functional disabilities. Measures included the Orientations to Happiness Questionnaire and items from the Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System. Greater distress was associated with lower global happiness in both mediation and moderation models. The mediation model showed that middle-aged participants (age: 45-64) scored lowest in global happiness, and the effect of age on distress was partially mediated by happiness. None of the happiness components mediated the relationship of age on distress. The moderation model showed a significant interaction effect for age and global happiness on distress, where younger participants low on happiness were significantly more distressed. Of the three happiness components, only meaning was significantly associated with distress. There was a significant interaction between age and meaning, where participants who were younger and scored low on the meaning scale reported significantly higher distress. Findings from this study lay groundwork for the development of clinical interventions to address distress in individuals with functional disabilities. Middle-aged and younger people with disabilities may be particularly affected by lower levels of happiness and might benefit from psychological interventions that focus on increasing overall well-being and providing meaning and purpose in life. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Initiation-promotion model of tumor prevalence in mice from space radiation exposures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Wilson, J. W.

1995-01-01

Exposures in space consist of low-level background components from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), occasional intense-energetic solar-particle events, periodic passes through geomagnetic-trapped radiation, and exposure from possible onboard nuclear-propulsion engines. Risk models for astronaut exposure from such diverse components and modalities must be developed to assure adequate protection in future NASA missions. The low-level background exposures (GCR), including relativistic heavy ions (HZE), will be the ultimate limiting factor for astronaut career exposure. We consider herein a two-mutation, initiation-promotion, radiation-carcinogenesis model in mice in which the initiation stage is represented by a linear kinetics model of cellular repair/misrepair, including the track-structure model for heavy ion action cross-sections. The model is validated by comparison with the harderian gland tumor experiments of Alpen et al. for various ion beams. We apply the initiation-promotion model to exposures from galactic cosmic rays, using models of the cosmic-ray environment and heavy ion transport, and consider the effects of the age of the mice prior to and after the exposure and of the length of time in space on predictions of relative risk. Our results indicate that biophysical models of age-dependent radiation hazard will provide a better understanding of GCR risk than models that rely strictly on estimates of the initial slopes of these radiations.

Modeling the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosols during CalNex 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, P. L.; Ortega, A. M.; Ahmadov, R.; McKeen, S. A.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Alvarez, S.; Rappenglueck, B.; Holloway, J. S.; Gilman, J. B.; Kuster, W. C.; De Gouw, J. A.; Zotter, P.; Prevot, A. S.; Kleindienst, T. E.; Offenberg, J. H.; Jimenez, J. L.

2012-12-01

Several traditional and recently proposed models are applied to predict the concentrations and properties of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and organic gases at the Pasadena ground site during the CalNex campaign. The models are constrained with and compared against results from available observations. The CalNex campaign and specifically the Pasadena ground site featured a large and sophisticated suite of aerosol and gas phase instrumentation, and thus, it provides a unique opportunity to test SOA models under conditions of strong urban emissions at a range of low photochemical ages. The oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) using an updated traditional model cannot explain the observed ambient SOA, and under-predicts the measurements by a factor of ~40. Similarly, after accounting for the multi-generation oxidation of VOCs using a volatility basis set (VBS) approach as described by Tsimpidi et al. (2010), SOA is still under-predicted by a factor of ~8. For SOA formed from VOCs (V-SOA) the dominant precursors are aromatics (xylenes, toluene, and trimethylbenzenes). The model SOA formed from the oxidation of primary semivolatile and intermediate volatility organic compounds (P-S/IVOCs, producing SI-SOA) is also predicted using the parameterizations of Robinson et al. (2007) and Grieshop et al. (2009), and the properties of V-SOA + SI-SOA are compared against the measured O:C and volatility. We also compare the results of the different models against fossil/non-fossil carbon measurements as well as tracers of different SOA precursors. Potential Aerosol Mass (PAM) measurements of the SOA forming potential of the Pasadena air masses are also compared against that predicted by the models. The PAM analysis allows for model/measurement comparisons of SOA properties over a range of photochemical ages spanning almost two weeks. Using the V-SOA model, at low photochemical ages (< 1 day) the modeled PAM V-SOA is less than the measured PAM SOA, similar to the ambient results. In contrast, at high photochemical ages (i.e., more than about three days) the modeled PAM V-SOA is substantially greater than that measured, which is likely due fragmentation reactions that are not included in that model. We derive a parameterization of the measured PAM SOA as a function of the input photochemical age and the PAM photochemical age that serves as a comparison with other SOA models.

Challenges of developing a cardiovascular risk calculator for patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Crowson, Cynthia S; Rollefstad, Silvia; Kitas, George D; van Riel, Piet L C M; Gabriel, Sherine E; Semb, Anne Grete

2017-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators designed for use in the general population do not accurately predict the risk of CVD among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), who are at increased risk of CVD. The process of developing risk prediction models involves numerous issues. Our goal was to develop a CVD risk calculator for patients with RA. Thirteen cohorts of patients with RA originating from 10 different countries (UK, Norway, Netherlands, USA, Sweden, Greece, South Africa, Spain, Canada and Mexico) were combined. CVD risk factors and RA characteristics at baseline, in addition to information on CVD outcomes were collected. Cox models were used to develop a CVD risk calculator, considering traditional CVD risk factors and RA characteristics. Model performance was assessed using measures of discrimination and calibration with 10-fold cross-validation. A total of 5638 RA patients without prior CVD were included (mean age: 55 [SD: 14] years, 76% female). During a mean follow-up of 5.8 years (30139 person years), 389 patients developed a CVD event. Event rates varied between cohorts, necessitating inclusion of high and low risk strata in the models. The multivariable analyses revealed 2 risk prediction models including either a disease activity score including a 28 joint count and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28ESR) or a health assessment questionnaire (HAQ) along with age, sex, presence of hypertension, current smoking and ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Unfortunately, performance of these models was similar to general population CVD risk calculators. Efforts to develop a specific CVD risk calculator for patients with RA yielded 2 potential models including RA disease characteristics, but neither demonstrated improved performance compared to risk calculators designed for use in the general population. Challenges encountered and lessons learned are discussed in detail.

Age, stage and senescence in plants

PubMed Central

Caswell, Hal; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto

2013-01-01

1. Senescence (an increase in the mortality rate or force of mortality, or a decrease in fertility, with increasing age) is a widespread phenomenon. Theories about the evolution of senescence have long focused on the age trajectories of the selection gradients on mortality and fertility. In purely age-classified models, these selection gradients are non-increasing with age, implying that traits expressed early in life have a greater impact on fitness than traits expressed later in life. This pattern leads inevitably to the evolution of senescence if there are trade-offs between early and late performance. 2. It has long been suspected that the stage- or size-dependent demography typical of plants might change these conclusions. In this paper, we develop a model that includes both stage- and age-dependence and derive the age-dependent, stage-dependent and age×stage-dependent selection gradients on mortality and fertility. 3. We applied this model to stage-classified population projection matrices for 36 species of plants, from a wide variety of growth forms (from mosses to trees) and habitats. 4. We found that the age-specific selection gradients within a life cycle stage can exhibit increases with age (we call these contra-senescent selection gradients). In later stages, often large size classes in plant demography, the duration of these contra-senescent gradients can exceed the life expectancy by several fold. 5. Synthesis. The interaction of age- and stage-dependence in plants leads to selection pressures on senescence fundamentally different from those found in previous, age-classified theories. This result may explain the observation that large plants seem less subject to senescence than most kinds of animals. The methods presented here can lead to improved analysis of both age-dependent and stage-dependent demographic properties of plant populations. PMID:23741075

Auditory development in early amplified children: factors influencing auditory-based communication outcomes in children with hearing loss.

PubMed

Sininger, Yvonne S; Grimes, Alison; Christensen, Elizabeth

2010-04-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of selected predictive factors, primarily age at fitting of amplification and degree of hearing loss, on auditory-based outcomes in young children with bilateral sensorineural hearing loss. Forty-four infants and toddlers, first identified with mild to profound bilateral hearing loss, who were being fitted with amplification were enrolled in the study and followed longitudinally. Subjects were otherwise typically developing with no evidence of cognitive, motor, or visual impairment. A variety of subject factors were measured or documented and used as predictor variables, including age at fitting of amplification, degree of hearing loss in the better hearing ear, cochlear implant status, intensity of oral education, parent-child interaction, and the number of languages spoken in the home. These factors were used in a linear multiple regression analysis to assess their contribution to auditory-based communication outcomes. Five outcome measures, evaluated at regular intervals in children starting at age 3, included measures of speech perception (Pediatric Speech Intelligibility and Online Imitative Test of Speech Pattern Contrast Perception), speech production (Arizona-3), and spoken language (Reynell Expressive and Receptive Language). The age at fitting of amplification ranged from 1 to 72 mo, and the degree of hearing loss ranged from mild to profound. Age at fitting of amplification showed the largest influence and was a significant factor in all outcome models. The degree of hearing loss was an important factor in the modeling of speech production and spoken language outcomes. Cochlear implant use was the other factor that contributed significantly to speech perception, speech production, and language outcomes. Other factors contributed sparsely to the models. Prospective longitudinal studies of children are important to establish relationships between subject factors and outcomes. This study clearly demonstrated the importance of early amplification on communication outcomes. This demonstration required a participant pool that included children who have been fit at very early ages and who represent all degrees of hearing loss. Limitations of longitudinal studies include selection biases. Families who enroll tend to have high levels of education and rate highly on cooperation and compliance measures. Although valuable information can be extracted from prospective studies, not all factors can be evaluated because of enrollment constraints.

A modelling approach for the heterogeneous oxidation of elastomers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herzig, A.; Sekerakova, L.; Johlitz, M.; Lion, A.

2017-09-01

The influence of oxygen on elastomers, known as oxidation, is one of the most important ageing processes and becomes more and more important for nowadays applications. The interaction with thermal effects as well as antioxidants makes oxidation of polymers a complex process. Based on the polymer chosen and environmental conditions, the ageing processes may behave completely different. In a lot of cases the influence of oxygen is limited to the surface layer of the samples, commonly referred to as diffusion-limited oxidation. For the lifetime prediction of elastomer components, it is essential to have detailed knowledge about the absorption and diffusion behaviour of oxygen molecules during thermo-oxidative ageing and how they react with the elastomer. Experimental investigations on industrially used elastomeric materials are executed in order to develop and fit models, which shall be capable of predicting the permeation and consumption of oxygen as well as changes in the mechanical properties. The latter are of prime importance for technical applications of rubber components. Oxidation does not occur homogeneously over the entire elastomeric component. Hence, material models which include ageing effects have to be amplified in order to consider heterogeneous ageing, which highly depends on the ageing temperature. The influence of elevated temperatures upon accelerated ageing has to be critically analysed, and influences on the permeation and diffusion coefficient have to be taken into account. This work presents phenomenological models which describe the oxygen uptake and the diffusion into elastomers based on an improved understanding of ongoing chemical processes and diffusion limiting modifications. On the one side, oxygen uptake is modelled by means of Henry's law in which solubility is a function of the temperature as well as the ageing progress. The latter is an irreversible process and described by an inner differential evolution equation. On the other side, further diffusion of oxygen into the material is described by a model based on Fick's law, which is modified by a reaction term. The evolved diffusion-reaction equation depends on the ageing temperature as well as on the progress of ageing and is able to describe diffusion-limited oxidation.

Applicability of Age-Based Hunting Regulations for African Leopards

PubMed Central

Balme, Guy Andrew; Hunter, Luke; Braczkowski, Alex Richard

2012-01-01

In species in which juvenile survival depends strongly on male tenure, excessive trophy hunting can artificially elevate male turnover and increase infanticide, potentially to unsustainable levels. Simulation models show that the likelihood of safe harvests can be improved by restricting offtakes to males old enough to have reared their first cohort of offspring to independence; in the case of African leopards, males were ≥7 years old. Here, we explore the applicability of an age-based approach for regulating trophy hunting of leopards. We conducted a structured survey comprising photographs of known-age leopards to assess the ability of wildlife practitioners to sex and age leopards. We also evaluated the utility of four phenotypic traits for use by trophy hunters to age male leopards in the field. Our logistic regression models showed that male leopard age affected the likelihood of survey respondents identifying the correct sex; notably, males <2 years were typically misidentified as females, while mature males (≥4 years) were sexed correctly. Mature male leopards were also more likely to be aged correctly, as were portrait photographs. Aging proficiency was also influenced by the profession of respondents, with hunters recording the lowest scores. A discriminant model including dewlap size, the condition of the ears, and the extent of facial scarring accurately discriminated among male leopard age classes. Model classification rates were considerably higher than the respective scores attained by survey respondents, implying that the aging ability of hunters could theoretically improve with appropriate training. Dewlap size was a particularly reliable indicator of males ≥7 years and a review of online trophy galleries suggested its wider utility as an aging criterion. Our study demonstrated that an age-based hunting approach is practically applicable for leopards. However, implementation would require major reform within the regulatory framework and the hunting industry. PMID:22493739

Modelling detrital coral grain-size and age: Insights from sediment abrasion process of Yongle Atoll of South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Zou, X.; Ge, C.; Tan, M.; Wang, C.

2017-12-01

Reef islands situated on the rims of atolls are composed almost exclusively of bioclastic materials locally supplied from adjacent coral reefs. Major skeletal component of these islands include coral, coralline algae, mollusks and foraminifera, produced in adjacent reefs. As the island builder, the bioclastic material is the sedimentary products, which also is the point of penetration to decipher the process. The bioclast of coral islands decrease in size with the transportation process. The grain-size provides a proxy record for the abrasion history of the unconsolidated sediment. The 230Th age of coral record the abrasion time. We hereby present a model to calculate the abrasion rate based on the data of 230Th age and grain-size of Yongle Atoll of Xisha Island, South China Sea. The grain size pattern in Yongle Atoll environment have confirm that the coral article diminution behave exponentially. The sediment composition of Yongle Atoll is identified, coral is dominant sediment constituent and the Th230 age is shown to exert an age distribution characteristics of coral detritus. We illustrate this approach by calculate the coral debris age of Xude Atoll, which located near the Yongle Atoll and then by comparing actual measured age and calculated age and to explore the dependence of the model. Observed 230 Th ages are well matched by predicted ages for medium age sediment. A poorer match for young and old sediment may result from some combination of large analytical uncertainties in the detrital ages and inhomogeneous erosion rates within the atoll. Such mismatches emphasize the need for more accurate kinematic models and for sampling strategies that are adapted to atoll-specific geologic and geomorphic conditions. Results presented constitute important new insights into regional sediment abrasion processed and on the evolution of coral atoll islands.

Simulation of Teacher Demand, Demographics, and Mobility: A Preliminary Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baugh, William H.; Stone, Joe A.

A Markov chain is used to construct a simulation model of the educator labor market in Oregon. The variables crucial to this study, drawn from the University of Southern California faculty planning model, include factors such as appointment rate; age; probability of attaining promotion; retirement, resignation and mortality rates; length of…

Improving component interoperability and reusability with the java connection framework (JCF): overview and application to the ages-w environmental model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Environmental modeling framework (EMF) design goals are multi-dimensional and often include many aspects of general software framework development. Many functional capabilities offered by current EMFs are closely related to interoperability and reuse aspects. For example, an EMF needs to support dev...

From Children's Perspectives: A Model of Aesthetic Processing in Theatre

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klein, Jeanne

2005-01-01

While several developmental models of aesthetic understanding, experience, and appreciation exist in the realms of visual art and music education, few examples have been proposed in regard to theatre, particularly for child audiences. This author argues that children gaze upon theatre in differential ways by including age as a variable…

Effect of anatomical variability in brain on transcranial magnetic stimulation treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syeda, F.; Magsood, H.; Lee, E. G.; El-Gendy, A. A.; Jiles, D. C.; Hadimani, R. L.

2017-05-01

Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation is a non-invasive clinical therapy used to treat depression and migraine, and shows further promise as treatment for Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, and other neurological disorders. However, it is yet unclear as to how anatomical differences may affect stimulation from this treatment. We use finite element analysis to model and analyze the results of Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation in various head models. A number of heterogeneous head models have been developed using MRI data of real patients, including healthy individuals as well as patients of Parkinson's disease. Simulations of Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation performed on 22 anatomically different models highlight the differences in induced stimulation. A standard Figure of 8 coil is used with frequency 2.5 kHz, placed 5 mm above the head. We compare cortical stimulation, volume of brain tissue stimulated, specificity, and maximum E-field induced in the brain for models ranging from ages 20 to 60. Results show that stimulation varies drastically between patients of the same age and health status depending upon brain-scalp distance, which is not necessarily a linear progression with age.

Effect of Parkinson's Disease in Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation Treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syeda, Farheen; Magsood, Hamzah; Lee, Erik; El-Gendy, Ahmed; Jiles, David; Hadimani, Ravi

Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation is a non-invasive clinical therapy used to treat depression and migraine, and shows further promise as treatment for Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, and other neurological disorders. However, it is yet unclear as to how anatomical differences may affect stimulation from this treatment. We use finite element analysis to model and analyze the results of Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation in various head models. A number of heterogeneous head models have been developed using MRI data of real patients, including healthy individuals as well as patients of Parkinson's disease. Simulations of Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation performed on 22 anatomically different models highlight the differences in induced stimulation. A standard Figure of 8 coil is used with frequency 2.5 kHz, placed 5 mm above the head. We compare cortical stimulation, volume of brain tissue stimulated, specificity, and maximum E-field induced in the brain for models ranging from ages 20 to 60. Results show that stimulation varies drastically between patients of the same age and health status depending upon brain-scalp distance, which is not necessarily a linear progression with age.

Rotation Period of Blanco 1 Members from KELT Light Curves: Comparing Rotation-Ages to Various Stellar Chronometers at 100 Myr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cargile, Phillip; James, D. J.; Pepper, J.; Kuhn, R.; Siverd, R. J.; Stassun, K. G.

2012-01-01

The age of a star is one of its most fundamental properties, and yet tragically it is also the one property that is not directly measurable in observations. We must therefore rely on age estimates based on mostly model-dependent or empirical methods. Moreover, there remains a critical need for direct comparison of different age-dating techniques using the same stars analyzed in a consistent fashion. One chronometer commonly being employed is using stellar rotation rates to measure stellar ages, i.e., gyrochronology. Although this technique is one of the better-understood chronometers, its calibration relies heavily on the solar datum, as well as benchmark open clusters with reliable ages, and also lacks a comprehensive comparative analysis to other stellar chronometers. The age of the nearby (? pc) open cluster Blanco 1 has been estimated using various techniques, including being one of only 7 clusters with an LDB age measurement, making it a unique and powerful comparative laboratory for stellar chronometry, including gyrochronology. Here, we present preliminary results from our light-curve analysis of solar-type stars in Blanco 1 in order to identify and measure rotation periods of cluster members. The light-curve data were obtained during the engineering and calibration phase of the KELT-South survey. The large area on the sky and low number of contaminating field stars makes Blanco 1 an ideal target for the extremely wide field and large pixel scale of the KELT telescope. We apply a period-finding technique using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram and FAP statistics to measure significant rotation periods in the KELT-South light curves for confirmed Blanco 1 members. These new rotation periods allow us to test and inform rotation evolution models for stellar ages at ? Myr, determining a rotation-age for Blanco 1 using gyrochronology, and compare this rotation-age to other age measurements for this cluster.

Methodology for the evaluation of vascular surgery manpower in France.

PubMed

Berger, L; Mace, J M; Ricco, J B; Saporta, G

2013-01-01

The French population is growing and ageing. It is expected to increase by 2.7% by 2020, and the number of individuals over 65 years of age is expected to increase by 3.3 million, a 33% increase, between 2005 and 2020. As the number of vascular surgery procedures is closely associated with the age of a population, it is anticipated that there will be a significant increase in the workload of vascular surgeons. A model is presented to predict changes in vascular surgery activity according to population ageing, including other parameters that could affect workload evolution. Three types of arterial procedures were studied: infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery, peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD) procedures and carotid artery (CEA) procedures. Data were selected and extracted from the national PMSI (Medical Information System Program) database. Data obtained from 2000 were used to predict data based on an ageing population for 2008. From this model, a weighted index was defined for each group by comparing expected and observed workloads. According to the model, over this 8-year period, there was an overall increase in vascular procedures of 52.2%, with an increase of 89% in PAOD procedures. Between 2000 and 2009, the total increase was 58.0%, with 3.9% for AAA procedures, 101.7% for PAOD procedures and 13.2% for CEA procedures. The weighted model based on an ageing population and corrected by a weighted factor predicted this increase. This weighted model is able to predict the workload of vascular surgeons over the coming years. An ageing population and other factors could result in a significant increase in demand for vascular surgical services. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Properties of LEGUS Clusters Obtained with Different Massive-Star Evolutionary Tracks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wofford, A.; Charlot, S.; Eldridge, J. J.

We compute spectral libraries for populations of coeval stars using state-of-the-art massive-star evolutionary tracks that account for different astrophysics including rotation and close-binarity. Our synthetic spectra account for stellar and nebular contributions. We use our models to obtain E(B - V ), age, and mass for six clusters in spiral galaxy NGC 1566, which have ages of < 50 Myr and masses of > 5 x 104M⊙ according to standard models. NGC 1566 was observed from the NUV to the I-band as part of the imaging Treasury HST program LEGUS: Legacy Extragalactic UV Survey. We aim to establish i) if the models provide reasonable fits to the data, ii) how well the models and photometry are able to constrain the cluster properties, and iii) how different the properties obtained with different models are.

A Clinical Prediction Algorithm to Stratify Pediatric Musculoskeletal Infection by Severity

PubMed Central

Benvenuti, Michael A; An, Thomas J; Mignemi, Megan E; Martus, Jeffrey E; Mencio, Gregory A; Lovejoy, Stephen A; Thomsen, Isaac P; Schoenecker, Jonathan G; Williams, Derek J

2016-01-01

Objective There are currently no algorithms for early stratification of pediatric musculoskeletal infection (MSKI) severity that are applicable to all types of tissue involvement. In this study, the authors sought to develop a clinical prediction algorithm that accurately stratifies infection severity based on clinical and laboratory data at presentation to the emergency department. Methods An IRB-approved retrospective review was conducted to identify patients aged 0–18 who presented to the pediatric emergency department at a tertiary care children’s hospital with concern for acute MSKI over a five-year period (2008–2013). Qualifying records were reviewed to obtain clinical and laboratory data and to classify in-hospital outcomes using a three-tiered severity stratification system. Ordinal regression was used to estimate risk for each outcome. Candidate predictors included age, temperature, respiratory rate, heart rate, C-reactive protein, and peripheral white blood cell count. We fit fully specified (all predictors) and reduced models (retaining predictors with a p-value ≤ 0.2). Discriminatory power of the models was assessed using the concordance (c)-index. Results Of the 273 identified children, 191 (70%) met inclusion criteria. Median age was 5.8 years. Outcomes included 47 (25%) children with inflammation only, 41 (21%) with local infection, and 103 (54%) with disseminated infection. Both the full and reduced models accurately demonstrated excellent performance (full model c-index 0.83, 95% CI [0.79–0.88]; reduced model 0.83, 95% CI [0.78–0.87]). Model fit was also similar, indicating preference for the reduced model. Variables in this model included C-reactive protein, pulse, temperature, and an interaction term for pulse and temperature. The odds of a more severe outcome increased by 30% for every 10-unit increase in C-reactive protein. Conclusions Clinical and laboratory data obtained in the emergency department may be used to accurately differentiate pediatric MSKI severity. The predictive algorithm in this study stratifies pediatric MSKI severity at presentation irrespective of tissue involvement and anatomic diagnosis. Prospective studies are needed to validate model performance and clinical utility. PMID:27682512

Personality measures in the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project.

PubMed

Iveniuk, James; Laumann, Edward O; Waite, Linda J; McClintock, Martha K; Tiedt, Andrew

2014-11-01

Provide recommendations for researchers on the use of the Big Five personality battery in the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (NSHAP), and ensure that the battery does proxy the Big Five. Also, describe the levels of Big Five traits across gender and age. We used an Exploratory Structural Equation Model (ESEM) to analyze NHSAP's personality battery, comparing NSHAP with the National Longitudinal Study of Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). ESEM revealed a 5-factor structure in the NSHAP battery, but with considerable cross-loadings. When these cross-loadings were not included in the model, model fit notably worsened. Reliabilities of Big Five scales were comparable to the HRS and MIDUS, even though NSHAP's battery is shorter. Women were considerably more Agreeable than men, although this gender gap closed among the oldest in the sample (80 years or older). Researchers will be able to make use of NSHAP's personality battery to examine a range of social, biological, and psychological factors at older ages, in light of individuals' general traits. We recommend models which allow for cross-loadings. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Gerontological Society of America 2014.

Stiffness and Damping in Postural Control Increase with Age

PubMed Central

Cenciarini, Massimo; Loughlin, Patrick J.; Sparto, Patrick J.; Redfern, Mark S.

2011-01-01

Upright balance is believed to be maintained through active and passive mechanisms, both of which have been shown to be impacted by aging. A compensatory balance response often observed in older adults is increased co-contraction, which is generally assumed to enhance stability by increasing joint stiffness. We investigated the effect of aging on standing balance by fitting body sway data to a previously-developed postural control model that includes active and passive stiffness and damping parameters. Ten young (24 ± 3 y) and seven older (75 ± 5 y) adults were exposed during eyes-closed stance to perturbations consisting of lateral pseudorandom floor tilts. A least-squares fit of the measured body sway data to the postural control model found significantly larger active stiffness and damping model parameters in the older adults. These differences remained significant even after normalizing to account for different body sizes between the young and older adult groups. An age effect was also found for the normalized passive stiffness, but not for the normalized passive damping parameter. This concurrent increase in active stiffness and damping was shown to be more stabilizing than an increase in stiffness alone, as assessed by oscillations in the postural control model impulse response. PMID:19770083

Social isolation after spinal cord injury: Indicators from the Longitudinal Aging Study.

PubMed

Newman, Susan D; Li, Chao; Krause, James S

2016-11-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and test a conceptual model of social isolation, incorporating social disconnectedness (objective measures) and perceived isolation (subjective appraisals) in an aging sample of participants with spinal cord injury (SCI). The study used cross-sectional data from 768 participants from the most recent administration of the SCI Longitudinal Aging Study, which was initiated in 1973. Measures included the revised version of the Life Situation Questionnaire, items from the Craig Handicap Assessment Reporting Technique, and the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System. Indicators of social isolation were combined into scales assessing social disconnectedness and perceived isolation. We tested the hypothesized model of social isolation, including both social disconnectedness and perceived isolation, after SCI using structural equation modeling. Results of structural equation modeling indicated good fit between the hypothesized model and data (root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.073, 90% confidence interval [0.070, 0.075]; comparative fit index = 0.949; Tucker Lewis Index = 0.946). Perceived isolation was significantly related with social disconnectedness (standardized coefficient [r] = .610). Several exogenous factors were significantly related to social disconnectedness and perceived isolation. Older participants were more likely to report lower levels of perceived isolation. Time since injury demonstrated an inverse relationship with both social disconnectedness and perceived isolation. Higher level and severity of injury were associated with higher levels of social disconnectedness. Our study establishes a stable model of social isolation to guide future research exploring the effect of social isolation on health after SCI. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Analysis of Geologic CO2 Sequestration at Farnham Dome, Utah, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.; Han, W.; Morgan, C.; Lu, C.; Esser, R.; Thorne, D.; McPherson, B.

2008-12-01

The Farnham Dome in east-central Utah is an elongated, Laramide-age anticline along the northern plunge of the San Rafael uplift and the western edge of the Uinta Basin. We are helping design a proposed field demonstration of commercial-scale geologic CO2 sequestration, including injection of 2.9 million tons of CO2 over four years time. The Farnham Dome pilot site stratigraphy includes a stacked system of saline formations alternating with low-permeability units. Facilitating the potential sequestration demonstration is a natural CO2 reservoir at depth, the Jurassic-age Navajo formation, which contains an estimated 50 million tons of natural CO2. The sequestration test design includes two deep formations suitable for supercritical CO2 injection, the Jurassic-age Wingate sandstone and the Permian-age White Rim sandstone. We developed a site-specific geologic model based on available geophysical well logs and formation tops data for use with numerical simulation. The current geologic model is limited to an area of approximately 6.5x4.5 km2 and 2.5 km thick, which contains 12 stacked formations starting with the White Rim formation at the bottom (>5000 feet bgl) and extending to the Jurassic Curtis formation at the top of the model grid. With the detail of the geologic model, we are able to estimate the Farnham Dome CO2 capacity at approximately 36.5 million tones within a 5 mile radius of a single injection well. Numerical simulation of multiphase, non- isothermal CO2 injection and flow suggest that the injected CO2 plume will not intersect nearby fault zones mapped in previous geologic studies. Our simulations also examine and compare competing roles of different trapping mechanisms, including hydrostratigraphic, residual gas, solubility, and mineralization trapping. Previous studies of soil gas flux at the surface of the fault zones yield no significant evidence of CO2 leakage from the natural reservoir at Farnham Dome, and thus we use these simulations to evaluate what factors make this natural reservoir so effective for CO2 storage. Our characterization and simulation efforts are producing a CO2 sequestration framework that incorporates production and capacity estimation, area-of-review, injectivity, and trapping mechanisms. Likewise, mitigation and monitoring strategies have been formulated from the site characterization and modeling results.

Water age and stream solute dynamics at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (US)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botter, Gianluca; Benettin, Paolo; McGuire, Kevin; Rinaldo, Andrea

2016-04-01

The contribution discusses experimental and modeling results from a headwater catchment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (New Hampshire, USA) to explore the link between stream solute dynamics and water age. A theoretical framework based on water age dynamics, which represents a general basis for characterizing solute transport at the catchment scale, is used to model both conservative and weathering-derived solutes. Based on the available information about the hydrology of the site, an integrated transport model was developed and used to estimate the relevant hydrochemical fluxes. The model was designed to reproduce the deuterium content of streamflow and allowed for the estimate of catchment water storage and dynamic travel time distributions (TTDs). Within this framework, dissolved silicon and sodium concentration in streamflow were simulated by implementing first-order chemical kinetics based explicitly on dynamic TTD, thus upscaling local geochemical processes to catchment scale. Our results highlight the key role of water stored within the subsoil glacial material in both the short-term and long-term solute circulation at Hubbard Brook. The analysis of the results provided by the calibrated model allowed a robust estimate of the emerging concentration-discharge relationship, streamflow age distributions (including the fraction of event water) and storage size, and their evolution in time due to hydrologic variability.

Improving Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA) Models using Global Sensitivity Analysis and by Comparison to Chamber Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D. O.; Brune, W. H.

2017-12-01

Accurate estimates of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from atmospheric models is a major research challenge due to the complexity of the chemical and physical processes involved in the SOA formation and continuous aging. The primary uncertainties of SOA models include those associated with the formation of gas-phase products, the conversion between gas phase and particle phase, the aging mechanisms of SOA, and other processes related to the heterogeneous and particle-phase reactions. To address this challenge, we us a modular modeling framework that combines both simple and near-explicit gas-phase reactions and a two-dimensional volatility basis set (2D-VBS) to simulate the formation and evolution of SOA. Global sensitivity analysis is used to assess the relative importance of the model input parameters. In addition, the model is compared to the measurements from the Focused Isoprene eXperiment at the California Institute of Technology (FIXCIT).

A Methodology for Modeling Nuclear Power Plant Passive Component Aging in Probabilistic Risk Assessment under the Impact of Operating Conditions, Surveillance and Maintenance Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guler Yigitoglu, Askin

In the context of long operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) (i.e., 60-80 years, and beyond), investigation of the aging of passive systems, structures and components (SSCs) is important to assess safety margins and to decide on reactor life extension as indicated within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. In the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology, evaluating the potential significance of aging of passive SSCs on plant risk is challenging. Although passive SSC failure rates can be added as initiating event frequencies or basic event failure rates in the traditional event-tree/fault-tree methodology, these failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data which means that the true state of a specific plant is not reflected in a realistic manner on aging effects. Dynamic PRA methodologies have gained attention recently due to their capability to account for the plant state and thus address the difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics-based models (and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems). Physics-based models can capture the impact of complex aging processes (e.g., fatigue, stress corrosion cracking, flow-accelerated corrosion, etc.) on SSCs and can be utilized to estimate passive SSC failure rates using realistic NPP data from reactor simulation, as well as considering effects of surveillance and maintenance activities. The objectives of this dissertation are twofold: The development of a methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive SSC into a reactor simulation environment to provide a framework for evaluation of their risk contribution in both the dynamic and traditional PRA; and the demonstration of the methodology through its application to pressurizer surge line pipe weld and steam generator tubes in commercial nuclear power plants. In the proposed methodology, a multi-state physics based model is selected to represent the aging process. The model is modified via sojourn time approach to reflect the operational and maintenance history dependence of the transition rates. Thermal-hydraulic parameters of the model are calculated via the reactor simulation environment and uncertainties associated with both parameters and the models are assessed via a two-loop Monte Carlo approach (Latin hypercube sampling) to propagate input probability distributions through the physical model. The effort documented in this thesis towards this overall objective consists of : i) defining a process for selecting critical passive components and related aging mechanisms, ii) aging model selection, iii) calculating the probability that aging would cause the component to fail, iv) uncertainty/sensitivity analyses, v) procedure development for modifying an existing PRA to accommodate consideration of passive component failures, and, vi) including the calculated failure probability in the modified PRA. The proposed methodology is applied to pressurizer surge line pipe weld aging and steam generator tube degradation in pressurized water reactors.

Quality Saving Mechanisms of Mitochondria during Aging in a Fully Time-Dependent Computational Biophysical Model

PubMed Central

Mellem, Daniel; Fischer, Frank; Jaspers, Sören; Wenck, Horst; Rübhausen, Michael

2016-01-01

Mitochondria are essential for the energy production of eukaryotic cells. During aging mitochondria run through various processes which change their quality in terms of activity, health and metabolic supply. In recent years, many of these processes such as fission and fusion of mitochondria, mitophagy, mitochondrial biogenesis and energy consumption have been subject of research. Based on numerous experimental insights, it was possible to qualify mitochondrial behaviour in computational simulations. Here, we present a new biophysical model based on the approach of Figge et al. in 2012. We introduce exponential decay and growth laws for each mitochondrial process to derive its time-dependent probability during the aging of cells. All mitochondrial processes of the original model are mathematically and biophysically redefined and additional processes are implemented: Mitochondrial fission and fusion is separated into a metabolic outer-membrane part and a protein-related inner-membrane part, a quality-dependent threshold for mitophagy and mitochondrial biogenesis is introduced and processes for activity-dependent internal oxidative stress as well as mitochondrial repair mechanisms are newly included. Our findings reveal a decrease of mitochondrial quality and a fragmentation of the mitochondrial network during aging. Additionally, the model discloses a quality increasing mechanism due to the interplay of the mitophagy and biogenesis cycle and the fission and fusion cycle of mitochondria. It is revealed that decreased mitochondrial repair can be a quality saving process in aged cells. Furthermore, the model finds strategies to sustain the quality of the mitochondrial network in cells with high production rates of reactive oxygen species due to large energy demands. Hence, the model adds new insights to biophysical mechanisms of mitochondrial aging and provides novel understandings of the interdependency of mitochondrial processes. PMID:26771181

Prediction of Precipitation Strengthening in the Commercial Mg Alloy AZ91 Using Dislocation Dynamics

DOE PAGES

Aagesen, L. K.; Miao, J.; Allison, J. E.; ...

2018-03-05

In this paper, dislocation dynamics simulations were used to predict the strengthening of a commercial magnesium alloy, AZ91, due to β-Mg 17Al 12 formed in the continuous precipitation mode. The precipitate distributions used in simulations were determined based on experimental characterization of the sizes, shapes, and number densities of the precipitates for 10-hour aging and 50-hour aging. For dislocations gliding on the basal plane, which is expected to be the dominant contributor to plastic deformation at room temperature, the critical resolved shear stress to bypass the precipitate distribution was 3.5 MPa for the 10-hour aged sample and 16.0 MPa formore » the 50-hour aged sample. The simulation results were compared to an analytical model of strengthening in this alloy, and the analytical model was found to predict critical resolved shear stresses that were approximately 30 pct lower. A model for the total yield strength was developed and compared with experiment for the 50-hour aged sample. Finally, the predicted yield strength, which included the precipitate strengthening contribution from the DD simulations, was 132.0 MPa, in good agreement with the measured yield strength of 141 MPa.« less

Games of age-dependent prevention of chronic infections by social distancing.

PubMed

Reluga, Timothy C; Li, Jing

2013-06-01

Epidemiological games combine epidemic modelling with game theory to assess strategic choices in response to risks from infectious diseases. In most epidemiological games studied thus-far, the strategies of an individual are represented with a single choice parameter. There are many natural situations where strategies can not be represented by a single dimension, including situations where individuals can change their behavior as they age. To better understand how age-dependent variations in behavior can help individuals deal with infection risks, we study an epidemiological game in an SI model with two life-history stages where social distancing behaviors that reduce exposure rates are age-dependent. When considering a special case of the general model, we show that there is a unique Nash equilibrium when the infection pressure is a monotone function of aggregate exposure rates, but non-monotone effects can appear even in our special case. The non-monotone effects sometimes result in three Nash equilibria, two of which have local invasion potential simultaneously. Returning to a general case, we also describe a game with continuous age-structure using partial-differential equations, numerically identify some Nash equilibria, and conjecture about uniqueness.

Prediction of Precipitation Strengthening in the Commercial Mg Alloy AZ91 Using Dislocation Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aagesen, L. K.; Miao, J.; Allison, J. E.

In this paper, dislocation dynamics simulations were used to predict the strengthening of a commercial magnesium alloy, AZ91, due to β-Mg 17Al 12 formed in the continuous precipitation mode. The precipitate distributions used in simulations were determined based on experimental characterization of the sizes, shapes, and number densities of the precipitates for 10-hour aging and 50-hour aging. For dislocations gliding on the basal plane, which is expected to be the dominant contributor to plastic deformation at room temperature, the critical resolved shear stress to bypass the precipitate distribution was 3.5 MPa for the 10-hour aged sample and 16.0 MPa formore » the 50-hour aged sample. The simulation results were compared to an analytical model of strengthening in this alloy, and the analytical model was found to predict critical resolved shear stresses that were approximately 30 pct lower. A model for the total yield strength was developed and compared with experiment for the 50-hour aged sample. Finally, the predicted yield strength, which included the precipitate strengthening contribution from the DD simulations, was 132.0 MPa, in good agreement with the measured yield strength of 141 MPa.« less

Prediction of Precipitation Strengthening in the Commercial Mg Alloy AZ91 Using Dislocation Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aagesen, L. K.; Miao, J.; Allison, J. E.; Aubry, S.; Arsenlis, A.

2018-03-01

Dislocation dynamics simulations were used to predict the strengthening of a commercial magnesium alloy, AZ91, due to β-Mg17Al12 formed in the continuous precipitation mode. The precipitate distributions used in simulations were determined based on experimental characterization of the sizes, shapes, and number densities of the precipitates for 10-hour aging and 50-hour aging. For dislocations gliding on the basal plane, which is expected to be the dominant contributor to plastic deformation at room temperature, the critical resolved shear stress to bypass the precipitate distribution was 3.5 MPa for the 10-hour aged sample and 16.0 MPa for the 50-hour aged sample. The simulation results were compared to an analytical model of strengthening in this alloy, and the analytical model was found to predict critical resolved shear stresses that were approximately 30 pct lower. A model for the total yield strength was developed and compared with experiment for the 50-hour aged sample. The predicted yield strength, which included the precipitate strengthening contribution from the DD simulations, was 132.0 MPa, in good agreement with the measured yield strength of 141 MPa.

A model immunization programme to control Japanese encephalitis in Viet Nam.

PubMed

Yen, Nguyen Thu; Liu, Wei; Hanh, Hoang Duc; Chang, Na Yoon; Duong, Tran Nhu; Gibbons, Robert V; Marks, Florian; Thu, Nghiem Anh; Hong, Nguyen Minh; Park, Jin Kyung; Tuan, Pham Anh; Nisalak, Ananda; Clemens, John D; Xu, Zhi-Yi

2015-03-01

In Viet Nam, an inactivated, mouse brain-derived vaccine for Japanese encephalitis (JE) has been given exclusively to ≤ 5 years old children in 3 paediatric doses since 1997. However, JE incidence remained high, especially among children aged 5-9 years. We conducted a model JE immunization programme to assess the feasibility and impact of JE vaccine administered to 1-9 year(s) children in 3 standard-dose regimen: paediatric doses for children aged <3 years and adult doses for those aged ≥ 3 years. Of the targeted children, 96.2% were immunized with ≥ 2 doses of the vaccine. Compared to the national immunization programme, JE incidence rate declined sharply in districts with the model programme (11.32 to 0.87 per 100,000 in pre-versus post-vaccination period). The rate of reduction was most significant in the 5-9 years age-group. We recommend a policy change to include 5-9 years old children in the catch-up immunization campaign and administer a 4th dose to those aged 5-9 years, who had received 3 doses of the vaccine during the first 2-3 years of life.

A Model Immunization Programme to Control Japanese Encephalitis in Viet Nam

PubMed Central

Yen, Nguyen Thu; Hanh, Hoang Duc; Chang, Na Yoon; Duong, Tran Nhu; Gibbons, Robert V.; Marks, Florian; Thu, Nghiem Anh; Hong, Nguyen Minh; Park, Jin Kyung; Tuan, Pham Anh; Nisalak, Ananda; Clemens, John D.; Xu, Zhi-yi

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT In Viet Nam, an inactivated, mouse brain-derived vaccine for Japanese encephalitis (JE) has been given exclusively to ≤5 years old children in 3 paediatric doses since 1997. However, JE incidence remained high, especially among children aged 5-9 years. We conducted a model JE immunization programme to assess the feasibility and impact of JE vaccine administered to 1-9 year(s) children in 3 standard-dose regimen: paediatric doses for children aged <3 years and adult doses for those aged ≥3 years. Of the targeted children, 96.2% were immunized with ≥2 doses of the vaccine. Compared to the national immunization programme, JE incidence rate declined sharply in districts with the model programme (11.32 to 0.87 per 100,000 in pre-versus post-vaccination period). The rate of reduction was most significant in the 5-9 years age-group. We recommend a policy change to include 5-9 years old children in the catch-up immunization campaign and administer a 4th dose to those aged 5-9 years, who had received 3 doses of the vaccine during the first 2-3 years of life. PMID:25995736

A mathematical model for malaria transmission with asymptomatic carriers and two age groups in the human population.

PubMed

Beretta, Edoardo; Capasso, Vincenzo; Garao, Dario G

2018-06-01

In this paper a conceptual mathematical model of malaria transmission proposed in a previous paper has been analyzed in a deeper detail. Among its key epidemiological features of this model, two-age-classes (child and adult) and asymptomatic carriers have been included. The extra mortality of mosquitoes due to the use of long-lasting treated mosquito nets (LLINs) and Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) has been included too. By taking advantage of the natural double time scale of the parasite and the human populations, it has been possible to provide interesting threshold results. In particular it has been shown that key parameters can be identified such that below a threshold level, built on these parameters, the epidemic tends to extinction, while above another threshold level it tends to a nontrivial endemic state, for which an interval estimate has been provided. Numerical simulations confirm the analytical results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sexual and general offending trajectories of men referred for civil commitment.

PubMed

Francis, Brian; Harris, Danielle Arlanda; Wallace, Stephanie; Knight, Raymond A; Soothill, Keith

2014-08-01

Policies aimed at managing high-risk offenders, which include sex offenders, often assume they are a homogeneous population. These policies also tend to assume the pattern of offending is the same for all sex offenders, and is stable. This study challenges these assumptions by examining the life course offending trajectories of 780 convicted adult male sexual offenders. The men were referred to the Massachusetts Treatment Center for civil commitment between 1959 and 1984. The changing number of both sexual and any offenses were examined by age using Group-Based Trajectory Modeling. We identified a four-trajectory model for all offending and a four-trajectory model for sexual offending. The identified groups varied in several offending patterns including criminal onset, length of criminal careers, age of peak offending, and time of entry into the treatment center. Late adult onset of sex offending was found to be associated with child molestation, whereas early-onset trajectories were associated with rape. Implications for future research and policy are discussed. © The Author(s) 2013.

Implications of Low Volatility SOA and Gas-Phase Fragmentation Reactions on SOA Loadings and their Spatial and Temporal Evolution in the Atmosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shrivastava, ManishKumar B.; Zelenyuk, Alla; Imre, Dan

2013-04-27

Recent laboratory and field measurements by a number of groups show that secondary organic aerosol (SOA) evaporates orders of magnitude slower than traditional models assume. In addition, chemical transport models using volatility basis set (VBS) SOA schemes neglect gas-phase fragmentation reactions, which are known to be extremely important. In this work, we present modeling studies to investigate the implications of non-evaporating SOA and gas-phase fragmentation reactions. Using the 3-D chemical transport model, WRF-Chem, we show that previous parameterizations, which neglect fragmentation during multi-generational gas-phase chemistry of semi-volatile/inter-mediate volatility organics ("aging SIVOC"), significantly over-predict SOA as compared to aircraft measurements downwindmore » of Mexico City. In sharp contrast, the revised models, which include gas-phase fragmentation, show much better agreement with measurements downwind of Mexico City. We also demonstrate complex differences in spatial SOA distributions when we transform SOA to non-volatile secondary organic aerosol (NVSOA) to account for experimental observations. Using a simple box model, we show that for same amount of SOA precursors, earlier models that do not employ multi-generation gas-phase chemistry of precursors ("non-aging SIVOC"), produce orders of magnitude lower SOA than "aging SIVOC" parameterizations both with and without fragmentation. In addition, traditional absorptive partitioning models predict almost complete SOA evaporation at farther downwind locations for both "non-aging SIVOC" and "aging SIVOC" with fragmentation. In contrast, in our revised approach, SOA transformed to NVSOA implies significantly higher background concentrations as it remains in particle phase even under highly dilute conditions. This work has significant implications on understanding the role of multi-generational chemistry and NVSOA formation on SOA evolution in the atmosphere.« less

A case-mix classification system for explaining healthcare costs using administrative data in Italy.

PubMed

Corti, Maria Chiara; Avossa, Francesco; Schievano, Elena; Gallina, Pietro; Ferroni, Eliana; Alba, Natalia; Dotto, Matilde; Basso, Cristina; Netti, Silvia Tiozzo; Fedeli, Ugo; Mantoan, Domenico

2018-03-04

The Italian National Health Service (NHS) provides universal coverage to all citizens, granting primary and hospital care with a copayment system for outpatient and drug services. Financing of Local Health Trusts (LHTs) is based on a capitation system adjusted only for age, gender and area of residence. We applied a risk-adjustment system (Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups System, ACG® System) in order to explain health care costs using routinely collected administrative data in the Veneto Region (North-eastern Italy). All residents in the Veneto Region were included in the study. The ACG system was applied to classify the regional population based on the following information sources for the year 2015: Hospital Discharges, Emergency Room visits, Chronic disease registry for copayment exemptions, ambulatory visits, medications, the Home care database, and drug prescriptions. Simple linear regressions were used to contrast an age-gender model to models incorporating more comprehensive risk measures aimed at predicting health care costs. A simple age-gender model explained only 8% of the variance of 2015 total costs. Adding diagnoses-related variables provided a 23% increase, while pharmacy based variables provided an additional 17% increase in explained variance. The adjusted R-squared of the comprehensive model was 6 times that of the simple age-gender model. ACG System provides substantial improvement in predicting health care costs when compared to simple age-gender adjustments. Aging itself is not the main determinant of the increase of health care costs, which is better explained by the accumulation of chronic conditions and the resulting multimorbidity. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Relative age effects in fitness testing in a general school sample: how relative are they?

PubMed

Veldhuizen, Scott; Cairney, John; Hay, John; Faught, Brent

2015-01-01

When children or adolescents are grouped by age or year of birth, older individuals tend to outperform younger ones. These phenomena are known as relative age effects (RAEs). RAEs may result directly from differences in maturation, but may also be associated with psychological, pedagogic or other factors. In this article, we attempt to quantify RAEs in a simple fitness task and to identify the mechanisms operating. Data come from a 5-year study of 2278 individuals that included repeated administrations of the 20 m shuttle run. We use mixed-effect modelling to characterise change over time and then examine residuals from these models for evidence of an effect for age relative to peers or for season of birth. Age alone appears to account for RAEs in our sample, with no effects for age relative to peers or month of birth. Age grouping produces large disparities for girls under 12, moderate ones for boys of all ages and negligible ones for girls between 12 and 15. RAEs for this task and population appear to arise from simple age differences. Similar methods may be useful in determining whether other explanations of RAEs are necessary in other contexts. Evaluation processes that take age into account have the potential to mitigate RAEs in general settings.

Mitochondrial base excision repair in mouse synaptosomes during normal aging and in a model of Alzheimer’s disease

PubMed Central

Gredilla, Ricardo; Weissman, Lior; Yang, Jenq-Lin; Bohr, Vilhelm A.; Stevnsner, Tinna

2010-01-01

Brain aging is associated with synaptic decline and cognitive impairment. Increased levels of oxidative DNA base damage and accumulation of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations or deletions lead to mitochondrial dysfunction, playing an important role in the aging process and the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease (AD). In mitochondria, base excision repair (BER) is the main DNA repair pathway for base modifications such as deamination and oxidation, and constitutes an important mechanism to avoid accumulation of mtDNA mutations. Synaptic function is highly dependent on mitochondria, and in the current study we have investigated BER in synaptosomes of mouse brain during normal aging and in an AD model. Synaptosomes are isolated synapses in membranous structures produced by subcellular fractionation of brain tissue. They include the whole presynaptic terminal as well as portions of the postsynaptic terminal. Synaptosomes contain the molecular machinery necessary for uptake, storage, and release of neurotransmitters, including synaptic vesicles and mitochondria. BER activities were measured in synaptosomal fractions from young and old mice and from pre-symptomatic and symptomatic AD mice harboring mutated APP, Tau and PS1 (3xTgAD). During normal aging, a reduction in the BER capacity was observed in the synaptosomal fraction, which was associated with a decrease in the level of BER proteins. However, we did not observe changes between the synaptosomal BER activities of pre-symptomatic and symptomatic AD mice. Our findings suggest that the age-related reduction in BER capacity in the synaptosomal fraction might contribute to mitochondrial and synaptic dysfunction during aging. The development of AD-like pathology in the 3xTgAD mouse model was, however, not associated with deficiencies of the BER mechanisms in the synaptosomal fraction when the whole brain was analyzed. PMID:20708822

Does the small fit them all? The utility of Disabkids-10 Index for the assessment of pediatric health-related quality of life across age-groups, genders, and informants.

PubMed

Carona, Carlos; Silva, Neuza; Moreira, Helena; Canavarro, Maria Cristina; Bullinger, Monika

2015-12-01

The objective of this study was twofold: First, to conduct a confirmatory factor analysis of the Portuguese versions of Disabkids-10; and second, to examine potential differences in factor structures between age-groups, genders, and informants. The sample included 293 school-aged children and adolescents with chronic health conditions and 197 parents. Both family members (whenever possible) completed the self- and proxy-report versions of Disabkids-10. The factorial model of Disabkids-10 had good fit for self-reported data and minimally acceptable fit for proxy-reported data. The multigroup analyses confirmed the model invariance across age-groups (children vs. adolescents), genders (boys vs. girls), and informants (children vs. parents). The generic developmental applicability of these questionnaires makes them recommended for health care routine assessments on pediatric intervention needs and outcomes. © The Author(s) 2014.

The Biology of Aging: Citizen Scientists and Their Pets as a Bridge Between Research on Model Organisms and Human Subjects.

PubMed

Kaeberlein, M

2016-03-01

A fundamental goal of research into the basic mechanisms of aging is to develop translational strategies that improve human health by delaying the onset and progression of age-related pathology. Several interventions have been discovered that increase life span in invertebrate organisms, some of which have similar effects in mice. These include dietary restriction and inhibition of the mechanistic target of rapamycin by treatment with rapamycin. Key challenges moving forward will be to assess the extent to which these and other interventions improve healthy longevity and increase life span in mice and to develop practical strategies for extending this work to the clinic. Companion animals may provide an optimal intermediate between laboratory models and humans. By improving healthy longevity in companion animals, important insights will be gained regarding human aging while improving the quality of life for people and their pets. © The Author(s) 2015.

Group-based differences in anti-aging bias among medical students.

PubMed

Ruiz, Jorge G; Andrade, Allen D; Anam, Ramanakumar; Taldone, Sabrina; Karanam, Chandana; Hogue, Christie; Mintzer, Michael J

2015-01-01

Medical students (MS) may develop ageist attitudes early in their training that may predict their future avoidance of caring for the elderly. This study sought to determine MS' patterns of explicit and implicit anti-aging bias, intent to practice with older people and using the quad model, the role of gender, race, and motivation-based differences. One hundred and three MS completed an online survey that included explicit and implicit measures. Explicit measures revealed a moderately positive perception of older people. Female medical students and those high in internal motivation showed lower anti-aging bias, and both were more likely to intend to practice with older people. Although the implicit measure revealed more negativity toward the elderly than the explicit measures, there were no group differences. However, using the quad model the authors identified gender, race, and motivation-based differences in controlled and automatic processes involved in anti-aging bias.

Bone quality changes associated with aging and disease: a review.

PubMed

Boskey, Adele L; Imbert, Laurianne

2017-12-01

Bone quality encompasses all the characteristics of bone that, in addition to density, contribute to its resistance to fracture. In this review, we consider changes in architecture, porosity, and composition, including collagen structure, mineral composition, and crystal size. These factors all are known to vary with tissue and animal ages, and health status. Bone morphology and presence of microcracks, which also contribute to bone quality, will not be discussed in this review. Correlations with mechanical performance for collagen cross-linking, crystallinity, and carbonate content are contrasted with mineral content. Age-dependent changes in humans and rodents are discussed in relation to rodent models of disease. Examples are osteoporosis, osteomalacia, osteogenesis imperfecta (OI), and osteopetrosis in both humans and animal models. Each of these conditions, along with aging, is associated with increased fracture risk for distinct reasons. © 2017 New York Academy of Sciences.