Integration of Life-Stage Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models with Adverse Outcome Pathways and Environmental Exposure Models to Screen for Environmental Hazards

EPA Science Inventory

A Life-stage Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed to include descriptions of several life-stage events such as pregnancy, fetal development, the neonate and child growth. The overall modeling strategy was used for in vitro to in vivo (IVIVE) extrapolat...

Environmental Studies Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

George, David R.

1986-01-01

Presents a model of an environmental studies course that reflects a spaceship earth philosophy. Includes a rationale and a listing of concepts and processes for this action oriented program. Suggests several interdisciplinary experiences that emphasize problem-solving and decision-making skills. (ML)

Developing models that analyze the economic/environmental trade-offs implicit in water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howitt, R. E.

2016-12-01

Hydro-economic models have been used to analyze optimal supply management and groundwater use for the past 25 years. They are characterized by an objective function that usually maximizes economic measures such as consumer and producer surplus subject to hydrologic equations of motion or water distribution systems. The hydrologic and economic components are sometimes fully integrated. Alternatively they may use an iterative interactive process. Environmental considerations have been included in hydro-economic models as inequality constraints. Representing environmental requirements as constraints is a rigid approximation of the range of management alternatives that could be used to implement environmental objectives. The next generation of hydro-economic models, currently being developed, require that the environmental alternatives be represented by continuous or semi-continuous functions which relate water resource use allocated to the environment with the probabilities of achieving environmental objectives. These functions will be generated by process models of environmental and biological systems which are now advanced to the state that they can realistically represent environmental systems and flexibility to interact with economic models. Examples are crop growth models, climate modeling, and biological models of forest, fish, and fauna systems. These process models can represent environmental outcomes in a form that is similar to economic production functions. When combined with economic models the interacting process models can reproduce a range of trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, and thus optimize social value of many water and environmental resources. Some examples of this next-generation of hydro-enviro- economic models are reviewed. In these models implicit production functions for environmental goods are combined with hydrologic equations of motion and economic response functions. We discuss models that show interaction between environmental goods and agricultural production, and others that address alternative climate change policies, or habitat provision.

1987 Oak Ridge model conference: Proceedings: Volume 2, Environmental protection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1987-01-01

See the abstract for Volume I for general information on the conference. Topics discussed in Volume II include data management techiques for environmental protection efforts, the use of models in environmental auditing, in emergency plans, chemical accident emergency response, risk assessment, monitoring of waste sites, air and water monitoring of waste sites, and in training programs. (TEM)

The Be-WetSpa-Pest modeling approach to simulate human and environmental exposure from pesticide application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binder, Claudia; Garcia-Santos, Glenda; Andreoli, Romano; Diaz, Jaime; Feola, Giuseppe; Wittensoeldner, Moritz; Yang, Jing

2016-04-01

This study presents an integrative and spatially explicit modeling approach for analyzing human and environmental exposure from pesticide application of smallholders in the potato producing Andean region in Colombia. The modeling approach fulfills the following criteria: (i) it includes environmental and human compartments; (ii) it contains a behavioral decision-making model for estimating the effect of policies on pesticide flows to humans and the environment; (iii) it is spatially explicit; and (iv) it is modular and easily expandable to include additional modules, crops or technologies. The model was calibrated and validated for the Vereda La Hoya and was used to explore the effect of different policy measures in the region. The model has moderate data requirements and can be adapted relatively easy to other regions in developing countries with similar conditions.

Enhancing metaproteomics-The value of models and defined environmental microbial systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herbst, Florian-Alexander; Lünsmann, Vanessa; Kjeldal, Henrik

2016-01-21

Metaproteomics - the large-scale characterization of the entire protein complement of environmental microbiota at a given point in time - added unique features and possibilities to study environmental microbial communities and to unravel these “black boxes”. New technical challenges arose which were not an issue for classical proteome analytics before and choosing the appropriate model system applicable to the research question can be difficult. Here, we reviewed different model systems for metaproteome analysis. Following a short introduction to microbial communities and systems, we discussed the most used systems ranging from technical systems over rhizospheric models to systems for the medicalmore » field. This includes acid mine drainage, anaerobic digesters, activated sludge, planted fixed bed reactors, gastrointestinal simulators and in vivo models. Model systems are useful to evaluate the challenges encountered within (but not limited to) metaproteomics, including species complexity and coverage, biomass availability or reliable protein extraction. The implementation of model systems can be considered as a step forward to better understand microbial responses and ecological distribution of member organisms. In the future, novel improvements are necessary to fully engage complex environmental systems.« less

Research on System Coherence Evolution of Different Environmental Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Si-Qi; Lu, Jing-Bin; Li, Hong; Liu, Ji-Ping; Zhang, Xiao-Ru; Liu, Han; Liang, Yu; Ma, Ji; Liu, Xiao-Jing; Wu, Xiang-Yao

2018-04-01

In this paper, we have studied the evolution curve of two-level atomic system that the initial state is excited state. At the different of environmental reservoir models, which include the single Lorentzian, ideal photon band-gap, double Lorentzian and square Lorentzian reservoir, we researched the influence of these environmental reservoir models on the evolution of energy level population. At static no modulation, comparing the four environmental models, the atomic energy level population oscillation of square Lorentzian reservoir model is fastest, and the atomic system decoherence is slowest. Under dynamic modulation, comparing the photon band-gap model with the single Lorentzian reservoir model, no matter what form of dynamic modulation, the time of atoms decay to the ground state is longer for the photonic band-gap model. These conclusions make the idea of using the environmental change to modulate the coherent evolution of atomic system become true.

Hierarchical, parallel computing strategies using component object model for process modelling responses of forest plantations to interacting multiple stresses

Treesearch

J. G. Isebrands; G. E. Host; K. Lenz; G. Wu; H. W. Stech

2000-01-01

Process models are powerful research tools for assessing the effects of multiple environmental stresses on forest plantations. These models are driven by interacting environmental variables and often include genetic factors necessary for assessing forest plantation growth over a range of different site, climate, and silvicultural conditions. However, process models are...

Development of an environmental impact model for the steel industry in Libya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaghinin, Mansur Salem

The global demand for steel is rising due to the infrastructural development of emergent economies in countries such as India, China, Thailand and Libya. Consequently, global steel production has increased dramatically and is expected to grow further in the future. Processing iron and steel is associated with a number of sustainable development challenges, including various economic, environmental and social issues. The increasing prominence of environmental issues in international and national political discourse, including the developing countries, means that stakeholders demand that manufacturers minimise the negative impacts of their operations.The steel industry must be able to measure and assess its environmental impacts and demonstrate continuous improvements. This requires an environmental management strategy to manage and minimise impacts on the environment. This study focuses on developing an environmental impacts model in steel industry to investigate the most important environmental parameters and their importance in order to mitigate environmental impacts.Based on the literature review and the elements that are considered as waste (derived from the waste survey in Libyan iron and steel industry), the potential environmental impacts of the steel industry are identified as criteria and sub-criteria. Then, a model is built using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) software based on the identified criteria and sub-criteria.The model also illustrates the overall goal which is creating environmental impacts model for steel industry, in addition, criteria and sub-criteria are listed to clarify the situation and make the analysis clearer and understandable. Pair wise comparisons are used to derive accurate ratio scale priorities.The results are analysed and presented as prioritised list of environmental impacts. Moreover, a series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to investigate the impact of changing the priority of the criteria on the alternatives' ranking. The validation of the proposed model is carried out to assess its validity and to see this model from the perspectives of the professionals from steel industry.

A cross-national analysis of how economic inequality predicts biodiversity loss.

PubMed

Holland, Tim G; Peterson, Garry D; Gonzalez, Andrew

2009-10-01

We used socioeconomic models that included economic inequality to predict biodiversity loss, measured as the proportion of threatened plant and vertebrate species, across 50 countries. Our main goal was to evaluate whether economic inequality, measured as the Gini index of income distribution, improved the explanatory power of our statistical models. We compared four models that included the following: only population density, economic footprint (i.e., the size of the economy relative to the country area), economic footprint and income inequality (Gini index), and an index of environmental governance. We also tested the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, but it was not supported by the data. Statistical comparisons of the models revealed that the model including both economic footprint and inequality was the best predictor of threatened species. It significantly outperformed population density alone and the environmental governance model according to the Akaike information criterion. Inequality was a significant predictor of biodiversity loss and significantly improved the fit of our models. These results confirm that socioeconomic inequality is an important factor to consider when predicting rates of anthropogenic biodiversity loss.

Dynamic modeling of environmental risk associated with drilling discharges to marine sediments.

PubMed

Durgut, İsmail; Rye, Henrik; Reed, Mark; Smit, Mathijs G D; Ditlevsen, May Kristin

2015-10-15

Drilling discharges are complex mixtures of base-fluids, chemicals and particulates, and may, after discharge to the marine environment, result in adverse effects on benthic communities. A numerical model was developed to estimate the fate of drilling discharges in the marine environment, and associated environmental risks. Environmental risk from deposited drilling waste in marine sediments is generally caused by four types of stressors: oxygen depletion, toxicity, burial and change of grain size. In order to properly model these stressors, natural burial, biodegradation and bioturbation processes were also included. Diagenetic equations provide the basis for quantifying environmental risk. These equations are solved numerically by an implicit-central differencing scheme. The sediment model described here is, together with a fate and risk model focusing on the water column, implemented in the DREAM and OSCAR models, both available within the Marine Environmental Modeling Workbench (MEMW) at SINTEF in Trondheim, Norway. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of Zebrafish Model to Environmental Toxicology.

PubMed

Komoike, Yuta; Matsuoka, Masato

2016-01-01

Recently, a tropical freshwater fish, the zebrafish, has been generally used as a useful model organism in various fields of life science worldwide. The zebrafish model has also been applied to environmental toxicology; however, in Japan, it has not yet become widely used. In this review, we will introduce the biological and historical backgrounds of zebrafish as an animal model and their breeding. We then present the current status of toxicological experiments using zebrafish that were treated with some important environmental contaminants, including cadmium, organic mercury, 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin, and tributyltin. Finally, the future possible application of genetically modified zebrafish to the study of environmental toxicology is discussed.

Environmental risk perception, environmental concern and propensity to participate in organic farming programmes.

PubMed

Toma, Luiza; Mathijs, Erik

2007-04-01

This paper aims to identify the factors underlying farmers' propensity to participate in organic farming programmes in a Romanian rural region that confronts non-point source pollution. For this, we employ structural equation modelling with latent variables using a specific data set collected through an agri-environmental farm survey in 2001. The model includes one 'behavioural intention' latent variable ('propensity to participate in organic farming programmes') and five 'attitude' and 'socio-economic' latent variables ('socio-demographic characteristics', 'economic characteristics', 'agri-environmental information access', 'environmental risk perception' and 'general environmental concern'). The results indicate that, overall, the model has an adequate fit to the data. All loadings are statistically significant, supporting the theoretical basis for assignment of indicators for each latent variable. The significance tests for the structural model parameters show 'environmental risk perception' as the strongest determinant of farmers' propensity to participate in organic farming programmes.

Invited review: A position on the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM).

PubMed

MacLeod, M J; Vellinga, T; Opio, C; Falcucci, A; Tempio, G; Henderson, B; Makkar, H; Mottet, A; Robinson, T; Steinfeld, H; Gerber, P J

2018-02-01

The livestock sector is one of the fastest growing subsectors of the agricultural economy and, while it makes a major contribution to global food supply and economic development, it also consumes significant amounts of natural resources and alters the environment. In order to improve our understanding of the global environmental impact of livestock supply chains, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has developed the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of GLEAM. Specifically, it explains the model architecture, methods and functionality, that is the types of analysis that the model can perform. The model focuses primarily on the quantification of greenhouse gases emissions arising from the production of the 11 main livestock commodities. The model inputs and outputs are managed and produced as raster data sets, with spatial resolution of 0.05 decimal degrees. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model v1.0 consists of five distinct modules: (a) the Herd Module; (b) the Manure Module; (c) the Feed Module; (d) the System Module; (e) the Allocation Module. In terms of the modelling approach, GLEAM has several advantages. For example spatial information on livestock distributions and crops yields enables rations to be derived that reflect the local availability of feed resources in developing countries. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model also contains a herd model that enables livestock statistics to be disaggregated and variation in livestock performance and management to be captured. Priorities for future development of GLEAM include: improving data quality and the methods used to perform emissions calculations; extending the scope of the model to include selected additional environmental impacts and to enable predictive modelling; and improving the utility of GLEAM output.

Avian models for toxicity testing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, E.F.; Hoffman, D.J.

1984-01-01

The use of birds as test models in experimental and environmental toxicology as related to health effects is reviewed, and an overview of descriptive tests routinely used in wildlife toxicology is provided. Toxicologic research on birds may be applicable to human health both directly by their use as models for mechanistic and descriptive studies and indirectly as monitors of environmental quality. Topics include the use of birds as models for study of teratogenesis and embryotoxicity, neurotoxicity, behavior, trends of environmental pollution, and for use in predictive wildlife toxicology. Uses of domestic and wild-captured birds are discussed.

A Plan for Environmental/Energy Education in the Public Community College System of Illinois.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Field Research Center Inc., Iowa City, IA.

This report examines the environmental training efforts of community colleges in Illinois. The text includes a series of nine model environmental protection curricula and outlines appropriate course descriptions for pollution control and abatement, radiation, and general environmental technology. A final section offers recommendations which…

Environmental Education Activities & Programs 1998-1999.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bureau of Reclamation (Dept. of Interior), Denver, CO.

This document features descriptions of interactive learning models and presentations in environmental education concerning groundwater, geology, the environment, weather, water activities, and interactive games. Activities include: (1) GW-Standard; (2) GW-w/no Leaky Underground Storage Tank (No UST); (3) GW-Karst; (4) GW-Landfill Models--Standard…

An assessment of environmental literacy and analysis of predictors of responsible environmental behavior held by secondary teachers in Hualien County of Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Shih-Jang

The major purpose of this study was to determine the relative contribution of nine variables in predicting teachers' responsible environmental behavior (REB). The theoretic framework of this study was based on the Hines model, the Hungerford and Volk model, and the environmental literacy framework proposed by Environmental Literacy Assessment Consortium. A nine-page instrument was administered by mailed questionnaire to 300 randomly selected secondary teachers in Hualien County of Taiwan with a 78.7% response rate. Correlation and stepwise multiple regression analyses were conducted. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) For all the respondents, all the nine environmental literacy variables were significant correlates of REB. These correlates included: perceived knowledge of environmental action strategies (KNOW; r =.46), intention to act (IA; r =.46), perceived skill in using environmental action strategies (SKILL; r =.45), perceived knowledge of environmental problems and issues (KISSU; r =.34), environmental sensitivity (r =.28), environmental responsibility (r =.27), perceived knowledge of ecology and environmental science (r =.27), locus of control (r =.27), and environmental attitudes (r =.21). (2) When only the nine environmental literacy variables were considered, the most parsimonious set of predictors of REB for all the teachers included: (a) KNOW, (Rsp2 =.2116); (b) IA, (Rsp2 =.0916); and (c) SKILL, (Rsp2 =.0205). For the urban teachers, the most parsimonious set of predictors included: (a) IA (Rsp2 =.2559); (b) SKILL (Rsp2.0926); and (c) environmental responsibility (Rsp2 =.0219). For the rural teachers, the most parsimonious set of predictors included: (a) KNOW (Rsp2 =.1872); (b) IA (Rsp2 =.0816); and (c) KISSU (Rsp2 =.0318). (3) When the environmental literacy variables as well as demographic and experience variables were considered, the most parsimonious set of predictors for all the teachers included: (a) KNOW, (Rsp2 =.2834); (b) IA, (Rsp2 =.0696); (c) area of residence, (Rsp2 =.0174); and (d) SKILL, (Rsp2 =.0163). For the urban teachers, the most parsimonious set of predictors included: (a) IA (Rsp2 =.3199); (b) SKILL (Rsp2 =.0840); (c) major sources of environmental information (Rsp2 =.0432); and (d) membership in environmental organizations, (Rsp2 =.0240). Implications for environmental education program development and instructional practice were presented. Recommendations for further research were also provided.

ACEEE's green book: The environmental guide to cars and trucks, Model year 2000

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeCicco, J.; Kliesch, J.; Thomas, M.

2000-07-01

This pathbreaking guide ranks cars and trucks according to environmental friendliness. Buyers can compare cars, vans, pickups, and sport utility vehicles by their environmental impacts, including air pollution, global warming, and fuel efficiency. Inside the guide: how to buy the cleanest and most efficient vehicle that meets your needs; Green Scores for all 2000 makes and models, listed by class--compact, mid-size, and large cars, vans, pickups, and sport utilities; Best of 2000 section featuring the greenest models in each class; Green by Design chapter highlighting advanced technologies and what makes some vehicles greener than others; listings for electric and othermore » alternative fuel vehicles in addition to gasoline and diesel vehicles; tips on keeping your vehicle running cleanly and efficiently; and the environmental impacts of vehicles, including global warming and the health effects of vehicle pollution.« less

(Q)SARs to predict environmental toxicities: current status and future needs.

PubMed

Cronin, Mark T D

2017-03-22

The current state of the art of (Quantitative) Structure-Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs) to predict environmental toxicity is assessed along with recommendations to develop these models further. The acute toxicity of compounds acting by the non-polar narcotic mechanism of action can be well predicted, however other approaches, including read-across, may be required for compounds acting by specific mechanisms of action. The chronic toxicity of compounds to environmental species is more difficult to predict from (Q)SARs, with robust data sets and more mechanistic information required. In addition, the toxicity of mixtures is little addressed by (Q)SAR approaches. Developments in environmental toxicology including Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) and omics responses should be utilised to develop better, more mechanistically relevant, (Q)SAR models.

*Combining regional - and local-scale air quality models with exposure models for use in environmental health studies - Title changed from Linking air quality and exposure models for use in environmental health studies

EPA Science Inventory

Population-based human exposure models predict the distribution of personal exposures to pollutants of outdoor origin using a variety of inputs, including air pollution concentrations; human activity patterns, such as the amount of time spent outdoors versus indoors, commuting, w...

Feasibility Study for an Air Force Environmental Model and Data Exchange. Volume 2. Appendices B - E. Air Force Needs and Capabilities Survey.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-01

o Environmental System Applications o Enviromental System Support and User Staff TABLE C-14l. KEY USER-SELECTED USAF ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES. Importance...general analysis procedure. Please note that in this section the word "environment" includes both the natural and the cultural environment. Socio -economic...YOUR GROUP *(INCLUDES CULTURAL AND SOCIO -ECONOMIC SCIENCE) ~~.| ,. -* . ’ . *" . . . . " . " ".t " . -’ . . , " • - ". " . . ". - 3.7 ENVIRONMENTAL

Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty in Exposure Assessments Improves links to Environmental Decision-Making

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental Decisions often rely upon observational data or model estimates. For instance, the evaluation of human health or ecological risks often includes information on pollutant emission rates, environmental concentrations, exposures, and exposure/dose-response data. Whet...

Multivariate modelling of endophenotypes associated with the metabolic syndrome in Chinese twins.

PubMed

Pang, Z; Zhang, D; Li, S; Duan, H; Hjelmborg, J; Kruse, T A; Kyvik, K O; Christensen, K; Tan, Q

2010-12-01

The common genetic and environmental effects on endophenotypes related to the metabolic syndrome have been investigated using bivariate and multivariate twin models. This paper extends the pairwise analysis approach by introducing independent and common pathway models to Chinese twin data. The aim was to explore the common genetic architecture in the development of these phenotypes in the Chinese population. Three multivariate models including the full saturated Cholesky decomposition model, the common factor independent pathway model and the common factor common pathway model were fitted to 695 pairs of Chinese twins representing six phenotypes including BMI, total cholesterol, total triacylglycerol, fasting glucose, HDL and LDL. Performances of the nested models were compared with that of the full Cholesky model. Cross-phenotype correlation coefficients gave clear indication of common genetic or environmental backgrounds in the phenotypes. Decomposition of phenotypic correlation by the Cholesky model revealed that the observed phenotypic correlation among lipid phenotypes had genetic and unique environmental backgrounds. Both pathway models suggest a common genetic architecture for lipid phenotypes, which is distinct from that of the non-lipid phenotypes. The declining performance with model restriction indicates biological heterogeneity in development among some of these phenotypes. Our multivariate analyses revealed common genetic and environmental backgrounds for the studied lipid phenotypes in Chinese twins. Model performance showed that physiologically distinct endophenotypes may follow different genetic regulations.

Developing Best Practices for Detecting Change at Marine Renewable Energy Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linder, H. L.; Horne, J. K.

2016-02-01

In compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), an evaluation of environmental effects is mandatory for obtaining permits for any Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) project in the US. Evaluation includes an assessment of baseline conditions and on-going monitoring during operation to determine if biological conditions change relative to the baseline. Currently, there are no best practices for the analysis of MRE monitoring data. We have developed an approach to evaluate and recommend analytic models used to characterize and detect change in biological monitoring data. The approach includes six steps: review current MRE monitoring practices, identify candidate models to analyze data, fit models to a baseline dataset, develop simulated scenarios of change, evaluate model fit to simulated data, and produce recommendations on the choice of analytic model for monitoring data. An empirical data set from a proposed tidal turbine site at Admiralty Inlet, Puget Sound, Washington was used to conduct the model evaluation. Candidate models that were evaluated included: linear regression, time series, and nonparametric models. Model fit diagnostics Root-Mean-Square-Error and Mean-Absolute-Scaled-Error were used to measure accuracy of predicted values from each model. A power analysis was used to evaluate the ability of each model to measure and detect change from baseline conditions. As many of these models have yet to be applied in MRE monitoring studies, results of this evaluation will generate comprehensive guidelines on choice of model to detect change in environmental monitoring data from MRE sites. The creation of standardized guidelines for model selection enables accurate comparison of change between life stages of a MRE project, within life stages to meet real time regulatory requirements, and comparison of environmental changes among MRE sites.

New Rodent Population Models May Inform Human Health Risk Assessment and Identification of Genetic Susceptibility to Environmental Exposures.

PubMed

Harrill, Alison H; McAllister, Kimberly A

2017-08-15

This paper provides an introduction for environmental health scientists to emerging population-based rodent resources. Mouse reference populations provide an opportunity to model environmental exposures and gene-environment interactions in human disease and to inform human health risk assessment. This review will describe several mouse populations for toxicity assessment, including older models such as the Mouse Diversity Panel (MDP), and newer models that include the Collaborative Cross (CC) and Diversity Outbred (DO) models. This review will outline the features of the MDP, CC, and DO mouse models and will discuss published case studies investigating the use of these mouse population resources in each step of the risk assessment paradigm. These unique resources have the potential to be powerful tools for generating hypotheses related to gene-environment interplay in human disease, performing controlled exposure studies to understand the differential responses in humans for susceptibility or resistance to environmental exposures, and identifying gene variants that influence sensitivity to toxicity and disease states. These new resources offer substantial advances to classical toxicity testing paradigms by including genetically sensitive individuals that may inform toxicity risks for sensitive subpopulations. Both in vivo and complementary in vitro resources provide platforms with which to reduce uncertainty by providing population-level data around biological variability. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1274.

New Rodent Population Models May Inform Human Health Risk Assessment and Identification of Genetic Susceptibility to Environmental Exposures

PubMed Central

Harrill, Alison H.

2017-01-01

Background: This paper provides an introduction for environmental health scientists to emerging population-based rodent resources. Mouse reference populations provide an opportunity to model environmental exposures and gene–environment interactions in human disease and to inform human health risk assessment. Objectives: This review will describe several mouse populations for toxicity assessment, including older models such as the Mouse Diversity Panel (MDP), and newer models that include the Collaborative Cross (CC) and Diversity Outbred (DO) models. Methods: This review will outline the features of the MDP, CC, and DO mouse models and will discuss published case studies investigating the use of these mouse population resources in each step of the risk assessment paradigm. Discussion: These unique resources have the potential to be powerful tools for generating hypotheses related to gene–environment interplay in human disease, performing controlled exposure studies to understand the differential responses in humans for susceptibility or resistance to environmental exposures, and identifying gene variants that influence sensitivity to toxicity and disease states. Conclusions: These new resources offer substantial advances to classical toxicity testing paradigms by including genetically sensitive individuals that may inform toxicity risks for sensitive subpopulations. Both in vivo and complementary in vitro resources provide platforms with which to reduce uncertainty by providing population-level data around biological variability. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1274 PMID:28886592

Ecological niche modeling for a cultivated plant species: a case study on taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii.

PubMed

Kodis, Mali'o; Galante, Peter; Sterling, Eleanor J; Blair, Mary E

2018-04-26

Under the threat of ongoing and projected climate change, communities in the Pacific Islands face challenges of adapting culture and lifestyle to accommodate a changing landscape. Few models can effectively predict how biocultural livelihoods might be impacted. Here, we examine how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence an ecological niche model (ENM) for the realized niche of cultivated taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii. We created and tuned two sets of ENMs: one using only environmental variables, and one using both environmental and cultural characteristics of Hawaii. These models were projected under two different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 2070. Models were selected and evaluated using average omission rate and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We compared optimal model predictions by comparing the percentage of taro plots predicted present and measured ENM overlap using Schoener's D statistic. The model including only environmental variables consisted of 19 Worldclim bioclimatic variables, in addition to slope, altitude, distance to perennial streams, soil evaporation, and soil moisture. The optimal model with environmental variables plus anthropogenic features also included a road density variable (which we assumed as a proxy for urbanization) and a variable indicating agricultural lands of importance to the state of Hawaii. The model including anthropogenic features performed better than the environment-only model based on omission rate, AUC, and review of spatial projections. The two models also differed in spatial projections for taro under anticipated future climate change. Our results demonstrate how ENMs including anthropogenic features can predict which areas might be best suited to plant cultivated species in the future, and how these areas could change under various climate projections. These predictions might inform biocultural conservation priorities and initiatives. In addition, we discuss the incongruences that arise when traditional ENM theory is applied to species whose distribution has been significantly impacted by human intervention, particularly at a fine scale relevant to biocultural conservation initiatives. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Covariance functions for body weight from birth to maturity in Nellore cows.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Mercadante, M E Z; Forni, S; Lôbo, R B; Albuquerque, L G

2010-03-01

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance functions using random regression models on Legendre polynomials for the analysis of repeated measures of BW from birth to adult age. A total of 82,064 records from 8,145 females were analyzed. Different models were compared. The models included additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random terms. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of animal age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariables. Eight models with polynomials of third to sixth order were used to describe additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. Residual effects were modeled using 1 (i.e., assuming homogeneity of variances across all ages) or 5 age classes. The model with 5 classes was the best to describe the trajectory of residuals along the growth curve. The model including fourth- and sixth-order polynomials for additive direct and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, and third-order polynomials for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects were the best. Estimates of (co)variance obtained with the multi-trait and random regression models were similar. Direct heritability estimates obtained with the random regression models followed a trend similar to that obtained with the multi-trait model. The largest estimates of maternal heritability were those of BW taken close to 240 d of age. In general, estimates of correlation between BW from birth to 8 yr of age decreased with increasing distance between ages.

Assignment: Eco-Friendly Campuses.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calkins, Meg

2002-01-01

Discusses how institutions of higher education can use their campus environments as a teaching tool and laboratory for finding solutions to environmental dilemmas and ensure that their campus operations, including the landscape, are exemplary models of environmental practice--even if it means far fewer expanses of lawn. Includes a list of…

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons - fate and long-range atmospheric transport studied using a global model, EMAC-SVOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Octaviani, Mega; Tost, Holger; Lammel, Gerhard

2017-04-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are emitted by incomplete combustion from fossil fuel, vehicles, and biomass burning. They may persist in environmental compartments, pose a health hazard and may bio accumulate along food chains. The ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model had been used to simulate global tropospheric, stratospheric chemistry and climate. In this study, we improve the model to include simulations of the transport and fate of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC). The EMAC-SVOC model takes into account essential environmental processes including gas-particle partitioning, dry and wet deposition, chemical and bio-degradation, and volatilization from sea surface, soils, vegetation, and snow. The model was evaluated against observational data in the Arctic, mid-latitudes, and tropics, and further applied to study total environmental lifetime and long-range transport potential (LRTP) of PAHs. We selected four compounds for study, spanning a wide range of volatility, i.e., phenanthrene, fluoranthene, pyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene. Several LRTP indicators were investigated, including the Arctic contamination potential, meridional spreading, and zonal and meridional fluxes to remote regions.

INCORPORATING ENVIRONMENTAL OUTCOMES INTO A HEALTH ECONOMIC MODEL.

PubMed

Marsh, Kevin; Ganz, Michael; Nørtoft, Emil; Lund, Niels; Graff-Zivin, Joshua

2016-01-01

Traditional economic evaluations for most health technology assessments (HTAs) have previously not included environmental outcomes. With the growing interest in reducing the environmental impact of human activities, the need to consider how to include environmental outcomes into HTAs has increased. We present a simple method of doing so. We adapted an existing clinical-economic model to include environmental outcomes (carbon dioxide [CO2] emissions) to predict the consequences of adding insulin to an oral antidiabetic (OAD) regimen for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) over 30 years, from the United Kingdom payer perspective. Epidemiological, efficacy, healthcare costs, utility, and carbon emissions data were derived from published literature. A scenario analysis was performed to explore the impact of parameter uncertainty. The addition of insulin to an OAD regimen increases costs by 2,668 British pounds per patient and is associated with 0.36 additional quality-adjusted life-years per patient. The insulin-OAD combination regimen generates more treatment and disease management-related CO2 emissions per patient (1,686 kg) than the OAD-only regimen (310 kg), but generates fewer emissions associated with treating complications (3,019 kg versus 3,337 kg). Overall, adding insulin to OAD therapy generates an extra 1,057 kg of CO2 emissions per patient over 30 years. The model offers a simple approach for incorporating environmental outcomes into health economic analyses, to support a decision-maker's objective of reducing the environmental impact of health care. Further work is required to improve the accuracy of the approach; in particular, the generation of resource-specific environmental impacts.

Potential distribution of the viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus in the Great Lakes region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Escobar, Luis E.; Kurath, Gael; Escobar-Dodero, Joaquim; Craft, Meggan E.; Phelps, Nicholas B.D.

2017-01-01

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype IVb has been responsible for large-scale fish mortality events in the Great Lakes of North America. Anticipating the areas of potential VHSV occurrence is key to designing epidemiological surveillance and disease prevention strategies in the Great Lakes basin. We explored the environmental features that could shape the distribution of VHSV, based on remote sensing and climate data via ecological niche modelling. Variables included temperature measured during the day and night, precipitation, vegetation, bathymetry, solar radiation and topographic wetness. VHSV occurrences were obtained from available reports of virus confirmation in laboratory facilities. We fit a Maxent model using VHSV-IVb reports and environmental variables under different parameterizations to identify the best model to determine potential VHSV occurrence based on environmental suitability. VHSV reports were generated from both passive and active surveillance. VHSV occurrences were most abundant near shore sites. We were, however, able to capture the environmental signature of VHSV based on the environmental variables employed in our model, allowing us to identify patterns of VHSV potential occurrence. Our findings suggest that VHSV is not at an ecological equilibrium and more areas could be affected, including areas not in close geographic proximity to past VHSV reports.

Spatial Variability of Geriatric Depression Risk in a High-Density City: A Data-Driven Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Mapping Approach.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Yu, Ruby; Wang, Dan; Woo, Jean; Kwok, Timothy Chi Yui; Ng, Edward

2017-08-31

Previous studies found a relationship between geriatric depression and social deprivation. However, most studies did not include environmental factors in the statistical models, introducing a bias to estimate geriatric depression risk because the urban environment was found to have significant associations with mental health. We developed a cross-sectional study with a binomial logistic regression to examine the geriatric depression risk of a high-density city based on five social vulnerability factors and four environmental measures. We constructed a socio-environmental vulnerability index by including the significant variables to map the geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, a high-density city characterized by compact urban environment and high-rise buildings. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of the variables were significantly different, indicating that both social and environmental variables should be included as confounding factors. For the comprehensive model controlled by all confounding factors, older adults who were of lower education had the highest geriatric depression risks (OR: 1.60 (1.21, 2.12)). Higher percentage of residential area and greater variation in building height within the neighborhood also contributed to geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, while average building height had negative association with geriatric depression risk. In addition, the socio-environmental vulnerability index showed that higher scores were associated with higher geriatric depression risk at neighborhood scale. The results of mapping and cross-section model suggested that geriatric depression risk was associated with a compact living environment with low socio-economic conditions in historical urban areas in Hong Kong. In conclusion, our study found a significant difference in geriatric depression risk between unadjusted and adjusted models, suggesting the importance of including environmental factors in estimating geriatric depression risk. We also developed a framework to map geriatric depression risk across a city, which can be used for identifying neighborhoods with higher risk for public health surveillance and sustainable urban planning.

Spatial Variability of Geriatric Depression Risk in a High-Density City: A Data-Driven Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Mapping Approach

PubMed Central

Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Yu, Ruby; Wang, Dan; Kwok, Timothy Chi Yui; Ng, Edward

2017-01-01

Previous studies found a relationship between geriatric depression and social deprivation. However, most studies did not include environmental factors in the statistical models, introducing a bias to estimate geriatric depression risk because the urban environment was found to have significant associations with mental health. We developed a cross-sectional study with a binomial logistic regression to examine the geriatric depression risk of a high-density city based on five social vulnerability factors and four environmental measures. We constructed a socio-environmental vulnerability index by including the significant variables to map the geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, a high-density city characterized by compact urban environment and high-rise buildings. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of the variables were significantly different, indicating that both social and environmental variables should be included as confounding factors. For the comprehensive model controlled by all confounding factors, older adults who were of lower education had the highest geriatric depression risks (OR: 1.60 (1.21, 2.12)). Higher percentage of residential area and greater variation in building height within the neighborhood also contributed to geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, while average building height had negative association with geriatric depression risk. In addition, the socio-environmental vulnerability index showed that higher scores were associated with higher geriatric depression risk at neighborhood scale. The results of mapping and cross-section model suggested that geriatric depression risk was associated with a compact living environment with low socio-economic conditions in historical urban areas in Hong Kong. In conclusion, our study found a significant difference in geriatric depression risk between unadjusted and adjusted models, suggesting the importance of including environmental factors in estimating geriatric depression risk. We also developed a framework to map geriatric depression risk across a city, which can be used for identifying neighborhoods with higher risk for public health surveillance and sustainable urban planning. PMID:28858265

Assessing the Application of a Geographic Presence-Only Model for Land Suitability Mapping

PubMed Central

Heumann, Benjamin W.; Walsh, Stephen J.; McDaniel, Phillip M.

2011-01-01

Recent advances in ecological modeling have focused on novel methods for characterizing the environment that use presence-only data and machine-learning algorithms to predict the likelihood of species occurrence. These novel methods may have great potential for land suitability applications in the developing world where detailed land cover information is often unavailable or incomplete. This paper assesses the adaptation and application of the presence-only geographic species distribution model, MaxEnt, for agricultural crop suitability mapping in a rural Thailand where lowland paddy rice and upland field crops predominant. To assess this modeling approach, three independent crop presence datasets were used including a social-demographic survey of farm households, a remote sensing classification of land use/land cover, and ground control points, used for geodetic and thematic reference that vary in their geographic distribution and sample size. Disparate environmental data were integrated to characterize environmental settings across Nang Rong District, a region of approximately 1,300 sq. km in size. Results indicate that the MaxEnt model is capable of modeling crop suitability for upland and lowland crops, including rice varieties, although model results varied between datasets due to the high sensitivity of the model to the distribution of observed crop locations in geographic and environmental space. Accuracy assessments indicate that model outcomes were influenced by the sample size and the distribution of sample points in geographic and environmental space. The need for further research into accuracy assessments of presence-only models lacking true absence data is discussed. We conclude that the Maxent model can provide good estimates of crop suitability, but many areas need to be carefully scrutinized including geographic distribution of input data and assessment methods to ensure realistic modeling results. PMID:21860606

Curricular Reform: Systems Modeling and Sustainability in Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Vermont

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzo, D. M.; Hayden, N. J.; Dewoolkar, M.; Neumann, M.; Lathem, S.

2009-12-01

Researchers at the University of Vermont were awarded a NSF-sponsored Department Level Reform (DLR) grant to incorporate a systems approach to engineering problem solving within the civil and environmental engineering programs. A systems approach challenges students to consider the environmental, social, and economic aspects within engineering solutions. Likewise, sustainability requires a holistic approach to problem solving that includes economic, social and environmental factors. Our reform has taken a multi-pronged approach in two main areas that include implementing: a) a sequence of three systems courses related to environmental and transportation systems that introduce systems thinking, sustainability, and systems analysis and modeling; and b) service-learning (SL) projects as a means of practicing the systems approach. Our SL projects are good examples of inquiry-based learning that allow students to emphasize research and learning in areas of most interest to them. The SL projects address real-world open-ended problems. Activities that enhance IT and soft skills for students are incorporated throughout the curricula. Likewise, sustainability has been a central piece of the reform. We present examples of sustainability in the SL and modeling projects within the systems courses (e.g., students have used STELLA™ systems modeling software to address the impact of different carbon sequestration strategies on global climate change). Sustainability in SL projects include mentoring home schooled children in biomimicry projects, developing ECHO exhibits and the design of green roofs, bioretention ponds and porous pavement solutions. Assessment includes formative and summative methods involving student surveys and focus groups, faculty interviews and observations, and evaluation of student work.

Enhancing metaproteomics-The value of models and defined environmental microbial systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herbst, Florian-Alexander; Lünsmann, Vanessa; Kjeldal, Henrik

Metaproteomicsthe large-scale characterization of the entire protein complement of environmental microbiota at a given point in timehas provided new features to study complex microbial communities in order to unravel these black boxes. Some new technical challenges arose that were not an issue for classical proteome analytics before that could be tackled by the application of different model systems. Here, we review different current and future model systems for metaproteome analysis. We introduce model systems for clinical and biotechnological research questions including acid mine drainage, anaerobic digesters, and activated sludge, following a short introduction to microbial communities and metaproteomics. Model systemsmore » are useful to evaluate the challenges encountered within (but not limited to) metaproteomics, including species complexity and coverage, biomass availability, or reliable protein extraction. Moreover, the implementation of model systems can be considered as a step forward to better understand microbial community responses and ecological functions of single member organisms. In the future, improvements are necessary to fully explore complex environmental systems by metaproteomics.« less

Enhancing metaproteomics-The value of models and defined environmental microbial systems

DOE PAGES

Herbst, Florian-Alexander; Lünsmann, Vanessa; Kjeldal, Henrik; ...

2016-01-21

Metaproteomicsthe large-scale characterization of the entire protein complement of environmental microbiota at a given point in timehas provided new features to study complex microbial communities in order to unravel these black boxes. Some new technical challenges arose that were not an issue for classical proteome analytics before that could be tackled by the application of different model systems. Here, we review different current and future model systems for metaproteome analysis. We introduce model systems for clinical and biotechnological research questions including acid mine drainage, anaerobic digesters, and activated sludge, following a short introduction to microbial communities and metaproteomics. Model systemsmore » are useful to evaluate the challenges encountered within (but not limited to) metaproteomics, including species complexity and coverage, biomass availability, or reliable protein extraction. Moreover, the implementation of model systems can be considered as a step forward to better understand microbial community responses and ecological functions of single member organisms. In the future, improvements are necessary to fully explore complex environmental systems by metaproteomics.« less

[Mapping environmental vulnerability from ETM + data in the Yellow River Mouth Area].

PubMed

Wang, Rui-Yan; Yu, Zhen-Wen; Xia, Yan-Ling; Wang, Xiang-Feng; Zhao, Geng-Xing; Jiang, Shu-Qian

2013-10-01

The environmental vulnerability retrieval is important to support continuing data. The spatial distribution of regional environmental vulnerability was got through remote sensing retrieval. In view of soil and vegetation, the environmental vulnerability evaluation index system was built, and the environmental vulnerability of sampling points was calculated by the AHP-fuzzy method, then the correlation between the sampling points environmental vulnerability and ETM + spectral reflectance ratio including some kinds of conversion data was analyzed to determine the sensitive spectral parameters. Based on that, models of correlation analysis, traditional regression, BP neural network and support vector regression were taken to explain the quantitative relationship between the spectral reflectance and the environmental vulnerability. With this model, the environmental vulnerability distribution was retrieved in the Yellow River Mouth Area. The results showed that the correlation between the environmental vulnerability and the spring NDVI, the September NDVI and the spring brightness was better than others, so they were selected as the sensitive spectral parameters. The model precision result showed that in addition to the support vector model, the other model reached the significant level. While all the multi-variable regression was better than all one-variable regression, and the model accuracy of BP neural network was the best. This study will serve as a reliable theoretical reference for the large spatial scale environmental vulnerability estimation based on remote sensing data.

An Integrated Socio-Environmental Model of Health and Well-Being: a Conceptual Framework Exploring the Joint Contribution of Environmental and Social Exposures to Health and Disease Over the Life Span.

PubMed

Olvera Alvarez, Hector A; Appleton, Allison A; Fuller, Christina H; Belcourt, Annie; Kubzansky, Laura D

2018-06-01

Environmental and social determinants of health often co-occur, particularly among socially disadvantaged populations, yet because they are usually studied separately, their joint effects on health are likely underestimated. Building on converging bodies of literature, we delineate a conceptual framework to address these issues. Previous models provided a foundation for study in this area, and generated research pointing to additional important issues. These include a stronger focus on biobehavioral pathways, both positive and adverse health outcomes, and intergenerational effects. To accommodate the expanded set of issues, we put forward the Integrated Socio-Environmental Model of Health and Well-Being (ISEM), which examines how social and environmental factors combine and potentially interact, via multi-factorial pathways, to affect health and well-being over the life span. We then provide applied examples including the study of how food environments affect dietary behavior. The ISEM provides a comprehensive, theoretically informed framework to guide future research on the joint contribution of social and environmental factors to health and well-being across the life span.

The SDM 3 Circle Model: A Literature Synthesis and Adaptation for Shared Decision Making in the Hospital.

PubMed

Rennke, Stephanie; Yuan, Patrick; Monash, Brad; Blankenburg, Rebecca; Chua, Ian; Harman, Stephanie; Sakai, Debbie S; Khan, Adeena; Hilton, Joan F; Shieh, Lisa; Satterfield, Jason

2017-12-01

Patient engagement through shared decision-making (SDM) is increasingly seen as a key component for patient safety, patient satisfaction, and quality of care. Current SDM models do not adequately account for medical and environmental contexts, which may influence medical decisions in the hospital. We identified leading SDM models and reviews to inductively construct a novel SDM model appropriate for the inpatient setting. A team of medicine and pediatric hospitalists reviewed the literature to integrate core SDM concepts and processes and iteratively constructed a synthesized draft model. We then solicited broad SDM expert feedback on the draft model for validation and further refinement. The SDM 3 Circle Model identifies 3 core categories of variables that dynamically interact within an "environmental frame." The resulting Venn diagram includes overlapping circles for (1) patient/family, (2) provider/team, and (3) medical context. The environmental frame includes all external, contextual factors that may influence any of the 3 circles. Existing multistep SDM process models were then rearticulated and contextualized to illustrate how a shared decision might be made. The SDM 3 Circle Model accounts for important environmental and contextual characteristics that vary across settings. The visual emphasis generated by each "circle" and by the environmental frame direct attention to often overlooked interactive forces and has the potential to more precisely define, promote, and improve SDM. This model provides a framework to develop interventions to improve quality and patient safety through SDM and patient engagement for hospitalists. © 2017 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Ecosystem Services and Climate Change Considerations for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework “iemWatersheds” has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water

Understanding the context of healthcare utilization: assessing environmental and provider-related variables in the behavioral model of utilization.

PubMed Central

Phillips, K A; Morrison, K R; Andersen, R; Aday, L A

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The behavioral model of utilization, developed by Andersen, Aday, and others, is one of the most frequently used frameworks for analyzing the factors that are associated with patient utilization of healthcare services. However, the use of the model for examining the context within which utilization occurs-the role of the environment and provider-related factors-has been largely neglected. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a systematic review and analysis to determine if studies of medical care utilization that have used the behavioral model during the last 20 years have included environmental and provider-related variables and the methods used to analyze these variables. We discuss barriers to the use of these contextual variables and potential solutions. DATA SOURCES: The Social Science Citation Index and Science Citation Index. We included all articles from 1975-1995 that cited any of three key articles on the behavioral model, that included all articles that were empirical analyses and studies of formal medical care utilization, and articles that specifically stated their use of the behavioral model (n = 139). STUDY DESIGN: Design was a systematic literature review. DATA ANALYSIS: We used a structured review process to code articles on whether they included contextual variables: (1) environmental variables (characteristics of the healthcare delivery system, external environment, and community-level enabling factors); and (2) provider-related variables (patient factors that may be influenced by providers and provider characteristics that interact with patient characteristics to influence utilization). We also examined the methods used in studies that included contextual variables. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Forty-five percent of the studies included environmental variables and 51 percent included provider-related variables. Few studies examined specific measures of the healthcare system or provider characteristics or used methods other than simple regression analysis with hierarchical entry of variables. Only 14 percent of studies analyzed the context of healthcare by including both environmental and provider-related variables as well as using relevant methods. CONCLUSIONS: By assessing whether and how contextual variables are used, we are able to highlight the contributions made by studies using these approaches, to identify variables and methods that have been relatively underused, and to suggest solutions to barriers in using contextual variables. PMID:9685123

'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

2017-04-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability and being able to deal with case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in statistics can be used to summarize and visualize uncertainty about the measured input, model parameters and output of the uncertainty propagation. We demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy tool to apply and can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support.

Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Steven; Voinov, Alexey; Paolisso, Michael; Jordan, Rebecca; BenDor, Todd; Bommel, Pierre; Glynn, Pierre D.; Hedelin, Beatrice; Hubacek, Klaus; Introne, Josh; Kolagani, Nagesh; Laursen, Bethany; Prell, Christina; Schmitt-Olabisi, Laura; Singer, Alison; Sterling, Eleanor J.; Zellner, Moira

2018-01-01

Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human–environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM.

Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling.

PubMed

Gray, Steven; Voinov, Alexey; Paolisso, Michael; Jordan, Rebecca; BenDor, Todd; Bommel, Pierre; Glynn, Pierre; Hedelin, Beatrice; Hubacek, Klaus; Introne, Josh; Kolagani, Nagesh; Laursen, Bethany; Prell, Christina; Schmitt Olabisi, Laura; Singer, Alison; Sterling, Eleanor; Zellner, Moira

2018-01-01

Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human-environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Development and evaluation of the bacterial fate and transport module for the agricultural policy/environmental extender (APEX) model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) is a watershed-scale water quality model that includes detailed representation of agricultural management but currently does not have microbial fate and transport simulation capabilities. The objective of this work was to develop a process-based ...

The Cultural Mind: Environmental Decision Making and Cultural Modeling within and across Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atran, Scott; Medin, Douglas L.; Ross, Norbert O.

2005-01-01

This article describes cross-cultural research on the relation between how people conceptualize nature and how they act in it. Mental models of nature differ dramatically among populations living in the same area and engaged in similar activities. This has novel implications for environmental decision making and management, including commons…

Improving component interoperability and reusability with the java connection framework (JCF): overview and application to the ages-w environmental model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Environmental modeling framework (EMF) design goals are multi-dimensional and often include many aspects of general software framework development. Many functional capabilities offered by current EMFs are closely related to interoperability and reuse aspects. For example, an EMF needs to support dev...

Improving the accessibility and re-use of environmental models through provision of model metadata - a scoping study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riddick, Andrew; Hughes, Andrew; Harpham, Quillon; Royse, Katherine; Singh, Anubha

2014-05-01

There has been an increasing interest both from academic and commercial organisations over recent years in developing hydrologic and other environmental models in response to some of the major challenges facing the environment, for example environmental change and its effects and ensuring water resource security. This has resulted in a significant investment in modelling by many organisations both in terms of financial resources and intellectual capital. To capitalise on the effort on producing models, then it is necessary for the models to be both discoverable and appropriately described. If this is not undertaken then the effort in producing the models will be wasted. However, whilst there are some recognised metadata standards relating to datasets these may not completely address the needs of modellers regarding input data for example. Also there appears to be a lack of metadata schemes configured to encourage the discovery and re-use of the models themselves. The lack of an established standard for model metadata is considered to be a factor inhibiting the more widespread use of environmental models particularly the use of linked model compositions which fuse together hydrologic models with models from other environmental disciplines. This poster presents the results of a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) funded scoping study to understand the requirements of modellers and other end users for metadata about data and models. A user consultation exercise using an on-line questionnaire has been undertaken to capture the views of a wide spectrum of stakeholders on how they are currently managing metadata for modelling. This has provided a strong confirmation of our original supposition that there is a lack of systems and facilities to capture metadata about models. A number of specific gaps in current provision for data and model metadata were also identified, including a need for a standard means to record detailed information about the modelling environment and the model code used, to assist the selection of models for linked compositions. Existing best practice, including the use of current metadata standards (e.g. ISO 19110, ISO 19115 and ISO 19119) and the metadata components of WaterML were also evaluated. In addition to commonly used metadata attributes (e.g. spatial reference information) there was significant interest in recording a variety of additional metadata attributes. These included more detailed information about temporal data, and also providing estimates of data accuracy and uncertainty within metadata. This poster describes the key results of this study, including a number of gaps in the provision of metadata for modelling, and outlines how these might be addressed. Overall the scoping study has highlighted significant interest in addressing this issue within the environmental modelling community. There is therefore an impetus for on-going research, and we are seeking to take this forward through collaboration with other interested organisations. Progress towards an internationally recognised model metadata standard is suggested.

EPI Suite™-Estimation Program Interface

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPISuite predicts various physical-chemical properties and environmental fate endpoints and also include models for environmental transport. Running the tool will give the user an indication of the transport and persistence of a chemical

Improving spatial prediction of Schistosoma haematobium prevalence in southern Ghana through new remote sensors and local water access profiles.

PubMed

Kulinkina, Alexandra V; Walz, Yvonne; Koch, Magaly; Biritwum, Nana-Kwadwo; Utzinger, Jürg; Naumova, Elena N

2018-06-04

Schistosomiasis is a water-related neglected tropical disease. In many endemic low- and middle-income countries, insufficient surveillance and reporting lead to poor characterization of the demographic and geographic distribution of schistosomiasis cases. Hence, modeling is relied upon to predict areas of high transmission and to inform control strategies. We hypothesized that utilizing remotely sensed (RS) environmental data in combination with water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) variables could improve on the current predictive modeling approaches. Schistosoma haematobium prevalence data, collected from 73 rural Ghanaian schools, were used in a random forest model to investigate the predictive capacity of 15 environmental variables derived from RS data (Landsat 8, Sentinel-2, and Global Digital Elevation Model) with fine spatial resolution (10-30 m). Five methods of variable extraction were tested to determine the spatial linkage between school-based prevalence and the environmental conditions of potential transmission sites, including applying the models to known human water contact locations. Lastly, measures of local water access and groundwater quality were incorporated into RS-based models to assess the relative importance of environmental and WASH variables. Predictive models based on environmental characterization of specific locations where people contact surface water bodies offered some improvement as compared to the traditional approach based on environmental characterization of locations where prevalence is measured. A water index (MNDWI) and topographic variables (elevation and slope) were important environmental risk factors, while overall, groundwater iron concentration predominated in the combined model that included WASH variables. The study helps to understand localized drivers of schistosomiasis transmission. Specifically, unsatisfactory water quality in boreholes perpetuates reliance of surface water bodies, indirectly increasing schistosomiasis risk and resulting in rapid reinfection (up to 40% prevalence six months following preventive chemotherapy). Considering WASH-related risk factors in schistosomiasis prediction can help shift the focus of control strategies from treating symptoms to reducing exposure.

Can Computational Models Be Used to Assess the Developmental Toxicity of Environmental Exposures?

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental causes of birth defects include maternal exposure to drugs, chemicals, or physical agents. Environmental factors account for an estimated 3–7% of birth defects although a broader contribution is likely based on the mother’s general health status and genetic blueprin...

Mechanistic modelling of the inhibitory effect of pH on microbial growth.

PubMed

Akkermans, Simen; Van Impe, Jan F

2018-06-01

Modelling and simulation of microbial dynamics as a function of processing, transportation and storage conditions is a useful tool to improve microbial food safety and quality. The goal of this research is to improve an existing methodology for building mechanistic predictive models based on the environmental conditions. The effect of environmental conditions on microbial dynamics is often described by combining the separate effects in a multiplicative way (gamma concept). This idea was extended further in this work by including the effects of the lag and stationary growth phases on microbial growth rate as independent gamma factors. A mechanistic description of the stationary phase as a function of pH was included, based on a novel class of models that consider product inhibition. Experimental results on Escherichia coli growth dynamics indicated that also the parameters of the product inhibition equations can be modelled with the gamma approach. This work has extended a modelling methodology, resulting in predictive models that are (i) mechanistically inspired, (ii) easily identifiable with a limited work load and (iii) easily extended to additional environmental conditions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

E-Alerts: Environmental pollution and control (environmental health and safety). E-mail newsletter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

Topics of discussion include the following: Effects of pollution on public health and safety; Toxicology; Industrial health; Physiology; Psychology; Clinical medicine; Radiobiology; Animals used as research experimental models.

International summit on integrated environmental modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gaber, Noha; Geller, Gary; Glynn, Pierre; Laniak, Gerry; Voinov, Alexey; Whelan, Gene; Roger, Moore; Hughes, Andrew

2013-01-01

This report describes the International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM), held in Reston, VA, on 7th-9th December 2010. The meeting brought together 57 scientists and managers from leading US and European government and non-governmental organizations, universities and companies together with international organizations convened over a number of years, including: the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) workshop on Collaborative Approaches to Integrated Modeling: Better Integration for Better Decisionmaking (December, 2008); the AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco (December 2009); and the International Congress on Environmental Modeling and Software (July 2010). From these meetings there is now recognition that many separate communities are involved in developing IEM. The aim of the Summit was to bring together two key groupings, the US and Europe, with the intention of creating a community open to all.

A study on identification of bacteria in environmental samples using single-cell Raman spectroscopy: feasibility and reference libraries.

PubMed

Baritaux, Jean-Charles; Simon, Anne-Catherine; Schultz, Emmanuelle; Emain, C; Laurent, P; Dinten, Jean-Marc

2016-05-01

We report on our recent efforts towards identifying bacteria in environmental samples by means of Raman spectroscopy. We established a database of Raman spectra from bacteria submitted to various environmental conditions. This dataset was used to verify that Raman typing is possible from measurements performed in non-ideal conditions. Starting from the same dataset, we then varied the phenotype and matrix diversity content included in the reference library used to train the statistical model. The results show that it is possible to obtain models with an extended coverage of spectral variabilities, compared to environment-specific models trained on spectra from a restricted set of conditions. Broad coverage models are desirable for environmental samples since the exact conditions of the bacteria cannot be controlled.

Genetic and environmental influences on last-year major depression in adulthood: a highly heritable stable liability but strong environmental effects on 1-year prevalence.

PubMed

Kendler, K S; Gardner, C O

2017-07-01

This study seeks to clarify the contribution of temporally stable and occasion-specific genetic and environmental influences on risk for major depression (MD). Our sample was 2153 members of female-female twin pairs from the Virginia Twin Registry. We examined four personal interview waves conducted over an 8-year period with MD in the last year defined by DSM-IV criteria. We fitted a structural equation model to the data using classic Mx. The model included genetic and environmental risk factors for a latent, stable vulnerability to MD and for episodes in each of the four waves. The best-fit model was simple and included genetic and unique environmental influences on the latent liability to MD and unique wave-specific environmental effects. The path from latent liability to MD in the last year was constant over time, moderate in magnitude (+0.65) and weaker than the impact of occasion-specific environmental effects (+0.76). Heritability of the latent stable liability to MD was much higher (78%) than that estimated for last-year MD (32%). Of the total unique environmental influences on MD, 13% reflected enduring consequences of earlier environmental insults, 17% diagnostic error and 70% wave-specific short-lived environmental stressors. Both genetic influences on MD and MD heritability are stable over middle adulthood. However, the largest influence on last-year MD is short-lived environmental effects. As predicted by genetic theory, the heritability of MD is increased substantially by measurement at multiple time points largely through the reduction of the effects of measurement error and short-term environmental risk factors.

RESEARCH: Conceptualizing Environmental Stress: A Stress-Response Model of Coastal Sandy Barriers.

PubMed

Gabriel; Kreutzwiser

2000-01-01

/ The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply a conceptual framework of environmental stress-response for a geomorphic system. Constructs and methods generated from the literature were applied in the development of an integrative stress-response framework using existing environmental assessment techniques: interaction matrices and a systems diagram. Emphasis is on the interaction between environmental stress and the geomorphic environment of a sandy barrier system. The model illustrates a number of stress concepts pertinent to modeling environmental stress-response, including those related to stress-dependency, frequency-recovery relationships, environmental heterogeneity, spatial hierarchies and linkages, and temporal change. Sandy barrier stress-response and recovery are greatly impacted by fluctuating water levels, stress intensity and frequency, as well as environmental gradients such as differences in sediment storage and supply. Aspects of these stress-response variables are articulated in terms of three main challenges to management: dynamic stability, spatial integrity, and temporal variability. These in turn form the framework for evaluative principles that may be applied to assess how policies and management practices reflect key biophysical processes and human stresses identified by the model.

Incorporating temporal heterogeneity in environmental conditions into a somatic growth model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dzul, Maria C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Korman, Josh; Yard, Michael D.; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.

2017-01-01

Evaluating environmental effects on fish growth can be challenging because environmental conditions may vary at relatively fine temporal scales compared to sampling occasions. Here we develop a Bayesian state-space growth model to evaluate effects of monthly environmental data on growth of fish that are observed less frequently (e.g., from mark-recapture data where time between captures can range from months to years). We assess effects of temperature, turbidity duration, food availability, flow variability, and trout abundance on subadult humpback chub (Gila cypha) growth in two rivers, the Colorado River (CR) and the Little Colorado River (LCR), and we use out-of-sample prediction to rank competing models. Environmental covariates explained a high proportion of the variation in growth in both rivers; however, the best growth models were river-specific and included either positive temperature and turbidity duration effects (CR) or positive temperature and food availability effects (LCR). Our approach to analyzing environmental controls on growth should be applicable in other systems where environmental data vary over relatively short time scales compared to animal observations.

Alpha 2 LASSO Data Bundles

DOE Data Explorer

Gustafson, William Jr; Vogelmann, Andrew; Endo, Satoshi; Toto, Tami; Xiao, Heng; Li, Zhijin; Cheng, Xiaoping; Kim, Jinwon; Krishna, Bhargavi

2015-08-31

The Alpha 2 release is the second release from the LASSO Pilot Phase that builds upon the Alpha 1 release. Alpha 2 contains additional diagnostics in the data bundles and focuses on cases from spring-summer 2016. A data bundle is a unified package consisting of LASSO LES input and output, observations, evaluation diagnostics, and model skill scores. LES input include model configuration information and forcing data. LES output includes profile statistics and full domain fields of cloud and environmental variables. Model evaluation data consists of LES output and ARM observations co-registered on the same grid and sampling frequency. Model performance is quantified by skill scores and diagnostics in terms of cloud and environmental variables.

Assessment of environmental impacts part one. Intervention analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hipel, Keith William; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; McLeod, A. Ian

The use of intervention analysis as a statistical method of gauging the effects of environmental changes is discussed. The Box-Jenkins model, serves as the basis for the intervention analysis methodology. Environmental studies of the Aswan Dam, the South Saskatchewan River, and a forest fire near the Pipers Hole River, Canada, are included as case studies in which intervention analysis was employed. Methods of data collection for intervention analysis are found to have a significant impact on model reliability; effective data collection processes for the Box-Jenkins model are provided. (15 graphs, 27 references, 2 tables)

Deriving field-based species sensitivity distributions (f-SSDs) from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs).

PubMed

Schipper, Aafke M; Posthuma, Leo; de Zwart, Dick; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2014-12-16

Quantitative relationships between species richness and single environmental factors, also called species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), are helpful to understand and predict biodiversity patterns, identify environmental management options and set environmental quality standards. However, species richness is typically dependent on a variety of environmental factors, implying that it is not straightforward to quantify SSDs from field monitoring data. Here, we present a novel and flexible approach to solve this, based on the method of stacked species distribution modeling. First, a species distribution model (SDM) is established for each species, describing its probability of occurrence in relation to multiple environmental factors. Next, the predictions of the SDMs are stacked along the gradient of each environmental factor with the remaining environmental factors at fixed levels. By varying those fixed levels, our approach can be used to investigate how field-based SSDs for a given environmental factor change in relation to changing confounding influences, including for example optimal, typical, or extreme environmental conditions. This provides an asset in the evaluation of potential management measures to reach good ecological status.

Modeling the Environmental Impact of Air Traffic Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Neil

2011-01-01

There is increased interest to understand and mitigate the impacts of air traffic on the climate, since greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic can have adverse impacts on the climate. The models described in this presentation are useful for quantifying these impacts and for studying alternative environmentally aware operational concepts. These models have been developed by leveraging and building upon existing simulation and optimization techniques developed for the design of efficient traffic flow management strategies. Specific enhancements to the existing simulation and optimization techniques include new models that simulate aircraft fuel flow, emissions and contrails. To ensure that these new models are beneficial to the larger climate research community, the outputs of these new models are compatible with existing global climate modeling tools like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool.

Environmental application of remote sensing methods to coastal zone land use and marine resource management. Appendix F: User's guide for advection, convection prototype. [southeastern Virginia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

A user's manual is provided for the environmental computer model proposed for the Richmond-Cape Henry Environmental Laboratory (RICHEL) application project for coastal zone land use investigations and marine resources management. The model was developed around the hydrologic cycle and includes two data bases consisting of climate and land use variables. The main program is described, along with control parameters to be set and pertinent subroutines.

The Moderating Effects of Students’ Personality Traits on Pro-Environmental Behavioral Intentions in Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Yu, Tai-Yi; Yu, Tai-Kuei

2017-01-01

This study developed a model that examined the relationship between undergraduate students’ beliefs, norms and pro-environment behavioral intentions in the context of global climate change (GCC). The model was further evaluated to determine whether latent variables, such as sustainability value, environmental concern, social norms, perceived risk, pro-environmental attitude, as defined by the theory of planned behavior and value-belief-norm theory, significantly influenced students’ intentions towards pro-environmental behavior. The research model was empirically tested using data collected form 275 undergraduate students. Empirical results found support for four interaction effects of personality traits and the related latent variables of environmental attitude, including sustainability value, social norms, environmental concern and perceived risk. The impact of undergraduate students’ environmental attitudes was moderated by personality traits. The findings of this research offer policy makers and enterprises better understandings of undergraduate students’ attitudes and behavioral intentions towards GCC and promote the visibility of this issue. PMID:29186016

The Moderating Effects of Students' Personality Traits on Pro-Environmental Behavioral Intentions in Response to Climate Change.

PubMed

Yu, Tai-Yi; Yu, Tai-Kuei

2017-11-29

This study developed a model that examined the relationship between undergraduate students' beliefs, norms and pro-environment behavioral intentions in the context of global climate change (GCC). The model was further evaluated to determine whether latent variables, such as sustainability value, environmental concern, social norms, perceived risk, pro-environmental attitude, as defined by the theory of planned behavior and value-belief-norm theory, significantly influenced students' intentions towards pro-environmental behavior. The research model was empirically tested using data collected form 275 undergraduate students. Empirical results found support for four interaction effects of personality traits and the related latent variables of environmental attitude, including sustainability value, social norms, environmental concern and perceived risk. The impact of undergraduate students' environmental attitudes was moderated by personality traits. The findings of this research offer policy makers and enterprises better understandings of undergraduate students' attitudes and behavioral intentions towards GCC and promote the visibility of this issue.

An Environmental Management Maturity Model of Construction Programs Using the AHP-Entropy Approach.

PubMed

Bai, Libiao; Wang, Hailing; Huang, Ning; Du, Qiang; Huang, Youdan

2018-06-23

The accelerating process of urbanization in China has led to considerable opportunities for the development of construction projects, however, environmental issues have become an important constraint on the implementation of these projects. To quantitatively describe the environmental management capabilities of such projects, this paper proposes a 2-dimensional Environmental Management Maturity Model of Construction Program (EMMMCP) based on an analysis of existing projects, group management theory and a management maturity model. In this model, a synergetic process was included to compensate for the lack of consideration of synergies in previous studies, and it was involved in the construction of the first dimension, i.e., the environmental management index system. The second dimension, i.e., the maturity level of environment management, was then constructed by redefining the hierarchical characteristics of construction program (CP) environmental management maturity. Additionally, a mathematical solution to this proposed model was derived via the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-entropy approach. To verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model, a computational experiment was conducted, and the results show that this approach could not only measure the individual levels of different processes, but also achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for stakeholders when making decisions on the environmental management of construction program, which reflects this model is reasonable for evaluating the level of environmental management maturity in CP. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the environmental management maturity levels of CP, which would fill the gap between project program management and environmental management and provide a reference for relevant management personnel to enhance their environmental management capabilities.

Environmental modelling of use of treated organic waste on agricultural land: a comparison of existing models for life cycle assessment of waste systems.

PubMed

Hansen, Trine Lund; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Schmidt, Sonia

2006-04-01

Modelling of environmental impacts from the application of treated organic municipal solid waste (MSW) in agriculture differs widely between different models for environmental assessment of waste systems. In this comparative study five models were examined concerning quantification and impact assessment of environmental effects from land application of treated organic MSW: DST (Decision Support Tool, USA), IWM (Integrated Waste Management, U.K.), THE IFEU PROJECT (Germany), ORWARE (ORganic WAste REsearch, Sweden) and EASEWASTE (Environmental Assessment of Solid Waste Systems and Technologies, Denmark). DST and IWM are life cycle inventory (LCI) models, thus not performing actual impact assessment. The DST model includes only one water emission (biological oxygen demand) from compost leaching in the results and IWM considers only air emissions from avoided production of commercial fertilizers. THE IFEU PROJECT, ORWARE and EASEWASTE are life cycle assessment (LCA) models containing more detailed land application modules. A case study estimating the environmental impacts from land application of 1 ton of composted source sorted organic household waste was performed to compare the results from the different models and investigate the origin of any difference in type or magnitude of the results. The contributions from the LCI models were limited and did not depend on waste composition or local agricultural conditions. The three LCA models use the same overall approach for quantifying the impacts of the system. However, due to slightly different assumptions, quantification methods and environmental impact assessment, the obtained results varied clearly between the models. Furthermore, local conditions (e.g. soil type, farm type, climate and legal regulation) and waste composition strongly influenced the results of the environmental assessment.

Investigating Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Integrated, Multimedia Environmental Models: Tools for FRAMES-3MRA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Babendreier, Justin E.; Castleton, Karl J.

2005-08-01

Elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-medium constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. Quantitative assessment of integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a comparative approach using several techniques, coupled with sufficient computational power. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems - Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment (FRAMES-3MRA) is an important software model being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in risk assessment of hazardous waste management facilities. The 3MRAmore » modeling system includes a set of 17 science modules that collectively simulate release, fate and transport, exposure, and risk associated with hazardous contaminants disposed of in land-based waste management units (WMU) .« less

Movement ecology: size-specific behavioral response of an invasive snail to food availability.

PubMed

Snider, Sunny B; Gilliam, James F

2008-07-01

Immigration, emigration, migration, and redistribution describe processes that involve movement of individuals. These movements are an essential part of contemporary ecological models, and understanding how movement is affected by biotic and abiotic factors is important for effectively modeling ecological processes that depend on movement. We asked how phenotypic heterogeneity (body size) and environmental heterogeneity (food resource level) affect the movement behavior of an aquatic snail (Tarebia granifera), and whether including these phenotypic and environmental effects improves advection-diffusion models of movement. We postulated various elaborations of the basic advection diffusion model as a priori working hypotheses. To test our hypotheses we measured individual snail movements in experimental streams at high- and low-food resource treatments. Using these experimental movement data, we examined the dependency of model selection on resource level and body size using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). At low resources, large individuals moved faster than small individuals, producing a platykurtic movement distribution; including size dependency in the model improved model performance. In stark contrast, at high resources, individuals moved upstream together as a wave, and body size differences largely disappeared. The model selection exercise indicated that population heterogeneity is best described by the advection component of movement for this species, because the top-ranked model included size dependency in advection, but not diffusion. Also, all probable models included resource dependency. Thus population and environmental heterogeneities both influence individual movement behaviors and the population-level distribution kernels, and their interaction may drive variation in movement behaviors in terms of both advection rates and diffusion rates. A behaviorally informed modeling framework will integrate the sentient response of individuals in terms of movement and enhance our ability to accurately model ecological processes that depend on animal movement.

Environmental health impact assessment: evaluation of a ten-step model.

PubMed

Fehr, R

1999-09-01

"Environmental impact assessment" denotes the attempt to predict and assess the impact of development projects on the environment. A component dealing specifically with human health is often called an "environmental health impact assessment." It is widely held that such impact assessment offers unique opportunities for the protection and promotion of human health. The following components were identified as key elements of an integrated environmental health impact assessment model: project analysis, analysis of status quo (including regional analysis, population analysis, and background situation), prediction of impact (including prognosis of future pollution and prognosis of health impact), assessment of impact, recommendations, communication of results, and evaluation of the overall procedure. The concept was applied to a project of extending a waste disposal facility and to a city bypass highway project. Currently, the coverage of human health aspects in environmental impact assessment still tends to be incomplete, and public health departments often do not participate. Environmental health impact assessment as a tool for health protection and promotion is underutilized. It would be useful to achieve consensus on a comprehensive generic concept. An international initiative to improve the situation seems worth some consideration.

Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

PubMed Central

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-01-01

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on. PMID:23603866

Integrated environmental risk assessment and whole-process management system in chemical industry parks.

PubMed

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-04-19

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

The Hyper-Envelope Modeling Interface (HEMI): A Novel Approach Illustrated Through Predicting Tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) Habitat in the Western USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Jim; Young, Nick; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Newman, Greg; Evangelista, Paul; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

Habitat suitability maps are commonly created by modeling a species’ environmental niche from occurrences and environmental characteristics. Here, we introduce the hyper-envelope modeling interface (HEMI), providing a new method for creating habitat suitability models using Bezier surfaces to model a species niche in environmental space. HEMI allows modeled surfaces to be visualized and edited in environmental space based on expert knowledge and does not require absence points for model development. The modeled surfaces require relatively few parameters compared to similar modeling approaches and may produce models that better match ecological niche theory. As a case study, we modeled the invasive species tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) in the western USA. We compare results from HEMI with those from existing similar modeling approaches (including BioClim, BioMapper, and Maxent). We used synthetic surfaces to create visualizations of the various models in environmental space and used modified area under the curve (AUC) statistic and akaike information criterion (AIC) as measures of model performance. We show that HEMI produced slightly better AUC values, except for Maxent and better AIC values overall. HEMI created a model with only ten parameters while Maxent produced a model with over 100 and BioClim used only eight. Additionally, HEMI allowed visualization and editing of the model in environmental space to develop alternative potential habitat scenarios. The use of Bezier surfaces can provide simple models that match our expectations of biological niche models and, at least in some cases, out-perform more complex approaches.

Model of Environmental Development of the Urbanized Areas: Accounting of Ecological and other Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abanina, E. N.; Pandakov, K. G.; Agapov, D. A.; Sorokina, Yu V.; Vasiliev, E. H.

2017-05-01

Modern cities and towns are often characterized by poor administration, which could be the reason of environmental degradation, the poverty growth, decline in economic growth and social isolation. In these circumstances it is really important to conduct fresh researches forming new ways of sustainable development of administrative districts. This development of the urban areas depends on many interdependent factors: ecological, economic, social. In this article we show some theoretical aspects of forming a model of environmental progress of the urbanized areas. We submit some model containing four levels including natural resources capacities of the territory, its social features, economic growth and human impact. The author describes the interrelations of elements of the model. In this article the program of environmental development of a city is offered and it could be used in any urban area.

Modeled and monitored variation in space and time of PCB-153 concentrations in air, sediment, soil and aquatic biota on a European scale.

PubMed

Hauck, Mara; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Hollander, Anne; Hendriks, A Jan; van de Meent, Dik

2010-08-15

We evaluated various modeling options for estimating concentrations of PCB-153 in the environment and in biota across Europe, using a nested multimedia fate model coupled with a bioaccumulation model. The most detailed model set up estimates concentrations in air, soil, fresh water sediment and fresh water biota with spatially explicit environmental characteristics and spatially explicit emissions to air and water in the period 1930-2005. Model performance was evaluated with the root mean square error (RMSE(log)), based on the difference between estimated and measured concentrations. The RMSE(log) was 5.4 for air, 5.6-6.3 for sediment and biota, and 5.5 for soil in the most detailed model scenario. Generally, model estimations tended to underestimate observed values for all compartments, except air. The decline in observed concentrations was also slightly underestimated by the model for the period where measurements were available (1989-2002). Applying a generic model setup with averaged emissions and averaged environmental characteristics, the RMSE(log) increased to 21 for air and 49 for sediment. For soil the RMSE(log) decreased to 3.5. We found that including spatial variation in emissions was most relevant for all compartments, except soil, while including spatial variation in environmental characteristics was less influential. For improving predictions of concentrations in sediment and aquatic biota, including emissions to water was found to be relevant as well. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

FRAMEWORK FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY ASSESSMENT MODELING IN SUPPORT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO PROGRAM

EPA Science Inventory

The primary purpose of this task is to serve as ORD liaison with USEPA's Gulf of Mexico Program Office. Liaison activities include 1) managing joint work between EPA and the US Navy; 2) serving as ORD lead for the RARE projects; 3) serving as a member of the State and Federal ta...

Biogeographical region and host trophic level determine carnivore endoparasite richness in the Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Rosalino, L M; Santos, M J; Fernandes, C; Santos-Reis, M

2011-05-01

We address the question of whether host and/or environmental factors might affect endoparasite richness and distribution, using carnivores as a model. We reviewed studies published in international peer-reviewed journals (34 areas in the Iberian Peninsula), describing parasite prevalence and richness in carnivores, and collected information on site location, host bio-ecology, climate and detected taxa (Helminths, Protozoa and Mycobacterium spp.). Three hypotheses were tested (i) host based, (ii) environmentally based, and (iii) hybrid (combination of environmental and host). Multicollinearity reduced candidate variable number for modelling to 5: host weight, phylogenetic independent contrasts (host weight), mean annual temperature, host trophic level and biogeographical region. General Linear Mixed Modelling was used and the best model was a hybrid model that included biogeographical region and host trophic level. Results revealed that endoparasite richness is higher in Mediterranean areas, especially for the top predators. We suggest that the detected parasites may benefit from mild environmental conditions that occur in southern regions. Top predators have larger home ranges and are likely to be subjected to cascading effects throughout the food web, resulting in more infestation opportunities and potentially higher endoparasite richness. This study suggests that richness may be more affected by historical and regional processes (including climate) than by host ecological processes.

Environmental Testing Campaign and Verification of Satellite Deimos-2 at INTA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, Daniel; Vazquez, Mercedes; Anon, Manuel; Olivo, Esperanza; Gallego, Pablo; Morillo, Pablo; Parra, Javier; Capraro; Luengo, Mar; Garcia, Beatriz; Villacorta, Pablo

2014-06-01

In this paper the environmental test campaign and verification of the DEIMOS-2 (DM2) satellite will be presented and described. DM2 will be ready for launch in 2014.Firstly, a short description of the satellite is presented, including its physical characteristics and intended optical performances. DEIMOS-2 is a LEO satellite for earth observation that will provide high resolution imaging services for agriculture, civil protection, environmental issues, disasters monitoring, climate change, urban planning, cartography, security and intelligence.Then, the verification and test campaign carried out on the SM and FM models at INTA is described; including Mechanical test for the SM and Climatic, Mechanical and Electromagnetic Compatibility tests for the FM. In addition, this paper includes Centre of Gravity and Moment of Inertia measurements for both models, and other verification activities carried out in order to ensure satellite's health during launch and its in orbit performance.

Completing the Circle: A Model for Effective Community Review of Environmental Health Research

PubMed Central

Shepard, Peggy Morrow; Corbin-Mark, Cecil D.

2009-01-01

While it is well understood that multiple and cumulative environmental stressors negatively impact health at the community level, existing ethical research review procedures are designed to protect individual research participants but not communities. Increasing concerns regarding the ethical conduct of research in general and environmental and genetic research in particular underscore the need to expand the scope of current human participant research regulations and ethical guidelines to include protections for communities. In an effort to address this issue, West Harlem Environmental Action (WE ACT), a nonprofit, community-based environmental justice organization in New York City that has been involved in community–academic partnerships for the past decade, used qualitative interview data to develop a pilot model for community review of environmental health science research. PMID:19890159

Satellite Models for Global Environmental Change in the NASA Health and Air Quality Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haynes, J.; Estes, S. M.

2015-12-01

Satellite remote sensing of the environment offers a unique vantage point that can fill in the gaps of environmental, spatial, and temporal data for tracking disease. Health and Air Quality providers and researchers are effective by the global environmental changes that are occurring and they need environmental data to study and understand the geographic, environmental, and meteorological differences in disease. This presentation maintains a diverse constellation of Earth observing research satellites and sponsors research in developing satellite data applications across a wide spectrum of areas including environmental health; infectious disease; air quality standards, policies, and regulations; and the impact of climate change on health and air quality. Successfully providing predictions with the accuracy and specificity required by decision makers will require advancements over current capabilities in a number of interrelated areas. These areas include observations, modeling systems, forecast development, application integration, and the research to operations transition process. This presentation will highlight many projects on which NASA satellites have been a primary partner with local, state, Federal, and international operational agencies over the past twelve years in these areas. Domestic and International officials have increasingly recognized links between environment and health. Health providers and researchers need environmental data to study and understand the geographic, environmental, and meteorological differences in disease. The presentation is directly related to Earth Observing systems and Global Health Surveillance and will present research results of the remote sensing environmental observations of earth and health applications, which can contribute to the health research. As part of NASA approach and methodology they have used Earth Observation Systems and Applications for Health Models to provide a method for bridging gaps of environmental, spatial, and temporal data for tracking disease.

Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi; Forman, Barton; Zhang, Xiao

2017-08-01

Previous modelling studies suggest that thermoelectric power generation is vulnerable to climate change, whereas studies based on historical data suggest the impact will be less severe. Here we explore the vulnerability of thermoelectric power generation in the United States to climate change by coupling an Earth system model with a thermoelectric power generation model, including state-level representation of environmental regulations on thermal effluents. We find that the impact of climate change is lower than in previous modelling estimates due to an inclusion of a spatially disaggregated representation of environmental regulations and provisional variances that temporarily relieve power plants from permit requirements. More specifically, our results indicate that climate change alone may reduce average generating capacity by 2-3% by the 2060s, while reductions of up to 12% are expected if environmental requirements are enforced without waivers for thermal variation. Our work highlights the significance of accounting for legal constructs and underscores the effects of provisional variances in addition to environmental requirements.

Relative importance of management, meteorological and environmental factors in the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica in dairy cattle in a temperate climate zone.

PubMed

Bennema, S C; Ducheyne, E; Vercruysse, J; Claerebout, E; Hendrickx, G; Charlier, J

2011-02-01

Fasciola hepatica, a trematode parasite with a worldwide distribution, is the cause of important production losses in the dairy industry. Diagnosis is hampered by the fact that the infection is mostly subclinical. To increase awareness and develop regionally adapted control methods, knowledge on the spatial distribution of economically important infection levels is needed. Previous studies modelling the spatial distribution of F. hepatica are mostly based on single cross-sectional samplings and have focussed on climatic and environmental factors, often ignoring management factors. This study investigated the associations between management, climatic and environmental factors affecting the spatial distribution of infection with F. hepatica in dairy herds in a temperate climate zone (Flanders, Belgium) over three consecutive years. A bulk-tank milk antibody ELISA was used to measure F. hepatica infection levels in a random sample of 1762 dairy herds in the autumns of 2006, 2007 and 2008. The infection levels were included in a Geographic Information System together with meteorological, environmental and management parameters. Logistic regression models were used to determine associations between possible risk factors and infection levels. The prevalence and spatial distribution of F. hepatica was relatively stable, with small interannual differences in prevalence and location of clusters. The logistic regression model based on both management and climatic/environmental factors included the factors: annual rainfall, mowing of pastures, proportion of grazed grass in the diet and length of grazing season as significant predictors and described the spatial distribution of F. hepatica better than the model based on climatic/environmental factors only (annual rainfall, elevation and slope, soil type), with an Area Under the Curve of the Receiver Operating Characteristic of 0.68 compared with 0.62. The results indicate that in temperate climate zones without large climatic and environmental variation, management factors affect the spatial distribution of F. hepatica, and should be included in future spatial distribution models. Copyright © 2010 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A surplus production model including environmental effects: Application to the Senegalese white shrimp stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiaw, Modou; Gascuel, Didier; Jouffre, Didier; Thiaw, Omar Thiom

2009-12-01

In Senegal, two stocks of white shrimp ( Penaeusnotialis) are intensively exploited, one in the north and another in the south. We used surplus production models including environmental effects to analyse their changes in abundance over the past 10 years and to estimate their Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and the related fishing effort ( EMSY). First, yearly abundance indices were estimated from commercial statistics using GLM techniques. Then, two environmental indices were alternatively tested in the model: the coastal upwelling intensity from wind speeds provided by the SeaWifs database and the primary production derived from satellite infrared images of chlorophyll a. Models were fitted, with or without the environmental effect, to the 1996-2005 time series. They express stock abundance and catches as functions of the fishing effort and the environmental index (when considered). For the northern stock, fishing effort and abundance fluctuate over the period without any clear trends. The model based on the upwelling index explains 64.9% of the year-to-year variability. It shows that the stock was slightly overexploited in 2002-2003 and is now close to full exploitation. Stock abundance strongly depends on environmental conditions; consequently, the MSY estimate varies from 300 to 900 tons according to the upwelling intensity. For the southern stock, fishing effort has strongly increased over the past 10 years, while abundance has been reduced 4-fold. The environment has a significant effect on abundance but only explains a small part of the year-to-year variability. The best fit is obtained using the primary production index ( R2 = 0.75), and the stock is now significantly overfished regardless of environmental conditions. MSY varies from 1200 to 1800 tons according to environmental conditions. Finally, in northern Senegal, the upwelling is highly variable from year to year and constitutes the major factor determining productivity. In the south, hydrodynamic processes seem to dominate and determine the primary production and the white shrimp stock productivity as well.

Life cycle modelling of environmental impacts of application of processed organic municipal solid waste on agricultural land (EASEWASTE).

PubMed

Hansen, Trine Lund; Bhander, Gurbakhash S; Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Bruun, Sander; Jensen, Lars Stoumann

2006-04-01

A model capable of quantifying the potential environmental impacts of agricultural application of composted or anaerobically digested source-separated organic municipal solid waste (MSW) is presented. In addition to the direct impacts, the model accounts for savings by avoiding the production and use of commercial fertilizers. The model is part of a larger model, Environmental Assessment of Solid Waste Systems and Technology (EASEWASTE), developed as a decision-support model, focusing on assessment of alternative waste management options. The environmental impacts of the land application of processed organic waste are quantified by emission coefficients referring to the composition of the processed waste and related to specific crop rotation as well as soil type. The model contains several default parameters based on literature data, field experiments and modelling by the agro-ecosystem model, Daisy. All data can be modified by the user allowing application of the model to other situations. A case study including four scenarios was performed to illustrate the use of the model. One tonne of nitrogen in composted and anaerobically digested MSW was applied as fertilizer to loamy and sandy soil at a plant farm in western Denmark. Application of the processed organic waste mainly affected the environmental impact categories global warming (0.4-0.7 PE), acidification (-0.06 (saving)-1.6 PE), nutrient enrichment (-1.0 (saving)-3.1 PE), and toxicity. The main contributors to these categories were nitrous oxide formation (global warming), ammonia volatilization (acidification and nutrient enrichment), nitrate losses (nutrient enrichment and groundwater contamination), and heavy metal input to soil (toxicity potentials). The local agricultural conditions as well as the composition of the processed MSW showed large influence on the environmental impacts. A range of benefits, mainly related to improved soil quality from long-term application of the processed organic waste, could not be generally quantified with respect to the chosen life cycle assessment impact categories and were therefore not included in the model. These effects should be considered in conjunction with the results of the life cycle assessment.

Caenorhabditis elegans: An Emerging Model in Biomedical and Environmental Toxicology

PubMed Central

Leung, Maxwell C. K.; Williams, Phillip L.; Benedetto, Alexandre; Au, Catherine; Helmcke, Kirsten J.; Aschner, Michael; Meyer, Joel N.

2008-01-01

The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans has emerged as an important animal model in various fields including neurobiology, developmental biology, and genetics. Characteristics of this animal model that have contributed to its success include its genetic manipulability, invariant and fully described developmental program, well-characterized genome, ease of maintenance, short and prolific life cycle, and small body size. These same features have led to an increasing use of C. elegans in toxicology, both for mechanistic studies and high-throughput screening approaches. We describe some of the research that has been carried out in the areas of neurotoxicology, genetic toxicology, and environmental toxicology, as well as high-throughput experiments with C. elegans including genome-wide screening for molecular targets of toxicity and rapid toxicity assessment for new chemicals. We argue for an increased role for C. elegans in complementing other model systems in toxicological research. PMID:18566021

Online Higher Education Instruction to Foster Critical Thinking When Assessing Environmental Issues - the Brownfield Action Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bower, Peter; Liddicoat, Joseph; Dittrick, Diane; Maenza-Gmelch, Terryanne; Kelsey, Ryan

2013-04-01

According to the Environmental Protection Agency, there are presently over half a million brownfields in the United States, but this number only includes sites for which an Environmental Site Assessment has been conducted. The actual number of brownfields is certainly into the millions and constitutes one of the major environmental issues confronting all communities today. Taught in part online for more than a decade in environmental science courses at over a dozen colleges, universities, and high schools in the United States, Brownfield Action (BA) is an interactive, web-based simulation that combines scientific expertise, constructivist education philosophy, and multimedia to advance the teaching of environmental science (Bower et al., 2011). In the online simulation and classroom, students form geotechnical consulting companies, conduct environmental site assessment investigations, and work collaboratively to solve a problem in environmental forensics. The BA model contains interdisciplinary scientific and social information that are integrated within a digital learning environment that encourages students to construct their knowledge as they learn by doing. As such, the approach improves the depth and coherence of students understanding of the course material. Like real-world environmental consultants, students are required to develop and apply expertise from a wide range of fields, including environmental science and engineering as well as journalism, medicine, public health, law, civics, economics, and business management. The overall objective is for students to gain an unprecedented appreciation of the complexity, ambiguity, and risk involved in any environmental issue or crisis.

Seemingly unrelated intervention time series models for effectiveness evaluation of large scale environmental remediation.

PubMed

Ip, Ryan H L; Li, W K; Leung, Kenneth M Y

2013-09-15

Large scale environmental remediation projects applied to sea water always involve large amount of capital investments. Rigorous effectiveness evaluations of such projects are, therefore, necessary and essential for policy review and future planning. This study aims at investigating effectiveness of environmental remediation using three different Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) time series models with intervention effects, including Model (1) assuming no correlation within and across variables, Model (2) assuming no correlation across variable but allowing correlations within variable across different sites, and Model (3) allowing all possible correlations among variables (i.e., an unrestricted model). The results suggested that the unrestricted SUR model is the most reliable one, consistently having smallest variations of the estimated model parameters. We discussed our results with reference to marine water quality management in Hong Kong while bringing managerial issues into consideration. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

System-level modeling of acetone-butanol-ethanol fermentation.

PubMed

Liao, Chen; Seo, Seung-Oh; Lu, Ting

2016-05-01

Acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) fermentation is a metabolic process of clostridia that produces bio-based solvents including butanol. It is enabled by an underlying metabolic reaction network and modulated by cellular gene regulation and environmental cues. Mathematical modeling has served as a valuable strategy to facilitate the understanding, characterization and optimization of this process. In this review, we highlight recent advances in system-level, quantitative modeling of ABE fermentation. We begin with an overview of integrative processes underlying the fermentation. Next we survey modeling efforts including early simple models, models with a systematic metabolic description, and those incorporating metabolism through simple gene regulation. Particular focus is given to a recent system-level model that integrates the metabolic reactions, gene regulation and environmental cues. We conclude by discussing the remaining challenges and future directions towards predictive understanding of ABE fermentation. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Modeling complex effects of multiple environmental stresses on carbon dynamics of Mid-Atlantic temperate forests

Treesearch

Yude Pan; Richard Birdsey; John Hom; Kevin McCullough

2007-01-01

We used our GIS variant of the PnET-CN model to investigate changes of forest carbon stocks and fluxes in Mid-Atlantic temperate forests over the last century (1900-2000). Forests in this region are affected by multiple environmental changes including climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, N deposition and tropospheric ozone, and extensive land disturbances. Our...

Crash Frequency Modeling Using Real-Time Environmental and Traffic Data and Unbalanced Panel Data Models

PubMed Central

Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

2016-01-01

Traffic and environmental conditions (e.g., weather conditions), which frequently change with time, have a significant impact on crash occurrence. Traditional crash frequency models with large temporal scales and aggregated variables are not sufficient to capture the time-varying nature of driving environmental factors, causing significant loss of critical information on crash frequency modeling. This paper aims at developing crash frequency models with refined temporal scales for complex driving environments, with such an effort providing more detailed and accurate crash risk information which can allow for more effective and proactive traffic management and law enforcement intervention. Zero-inflated, negative binomial (ZINB) models with site-specific random effects are developed with unbalanced panel data to analyze hourly crash frequency on highway segments. The real-time driving environment information, including traffic, weather and road surface condition data, sourced primarily from the Road Weather Information System, is incorporated into the models along with site-specific road characteristics. The estimation results of unbalanced panel data ZINB models suggest there are a number of factors influencing crash frequency, including time-varying factors (e.g., visibility and hourly traffic volume) and site-varying factors (e.g., speed limit). The study confirms the unique significance of the real-time weather, road surface condition and traffic data to crash frequency modeling. PMID:27322306

Integrating The Environment and The Economy: Proceedings of June 1994 Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Workshop (1995)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The workshop was held June 5 and 6 in Boulder, CO and session topics included Sustainability: Extensions and Issues, Issues in Environmental Accounting, and Economic/Ecological Modeling and Ecosystem Valuation.

Modules: A New Tool in the Emissions Modeling Framework

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-08-14

The Emissions Modeling Framework (EMF) is used by various organizations, including the US Environmental Protection Agency, to manage their emissions inventories, projections, and emissions modeling scenarios. Modules are a new tool under develo...

InSTREAM: the individual-based stream trout research and environmental assessment model

Treesearch

Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey; Stephen K. Jackson; Roland H. Lamberson

2009-01-01

This report documents Version 4.2 of InSTREAM, including its formulation, software, and application to research and management problems. InSTREAM is a simulation model designed to understand how stream and river salmonid populations respond to habitat alteration, including altered flow, temperature, and turbidity regimes and changes in channel morphology. The model...

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models.

PubMed

Bignardi, A B; El Faro, L; Cardoso, V L; Machado, P F; Albuquerque, L G

2009-09-01

The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

Life Cycle analysis data and results for geothermal and other electricity generation technologies

DOE Data Explorer

Sullivan, John

2013-06-04

Life cycle analysis (LCA) is an environmental assessment method that quantifies the environmental performance of a product system over its entire lifetime, from cradle to grave. Based on a set of relevant metrics, the method is aptly suited for comparing the environmental performance of competing products systems. This file contains LCA data and results for electric power production including geothermal power. The LCA for electric power has been broken down into two life cycle stages, namely plant and fuel cycles. Relevant metrics include the energy ratio and greenhouse gas (GHG) ratios, where the former is the ratio of system input energy to total lifetime electrical energy out and the latter is the ratio of the sum of all incurred greenhouse gases (in CO2 equivalents) divided by the same energy output. Specific information included herein are material to power (MPR) ratios for a range of power technologies for conventional thermoelectric, renewables (including three geothermal power technologies), and coproduced natural gas/geothermal power. For the geothermal power scenarios, the MPRs include the casing, cement, diesel, and water requirements for drilling wells and topside piping. Also included herein are energy and GHG ratios for plant and fuel cycle stages for the range of considered electricity generating technologies. Some of this information are MPR data extracted directly from the literature or from models (eg. ICARUS – a subset of ASPEN models) and others (energy and GHG ratios) are results calculated using GREET models and MPR data. MPR data for wells included herein were based on the Argonne well materials model and GETEM well count results.

Research gaps related to the environmental impacts of electronic cigarettes.

PubMed

Chang, Hoshing

2014-05-01

To consider the research gaps related to the environmental impacts of electronic cigarettes due to their manufacture, use and disposal. Literature searches were conducted through December 2013. Studies were included in this review if they related to the environmental impacts of e-cigarettes. Scientific information on the environmental impacts of e-cigarette manufacturing, use and disposal is very limited. No studies formally evaluated the environmental impacts of the manufacturing process or disposal of components, including batteries. Four studies evaluated potential exposure to secondhand e-cigarette aerosol, an indication of impacts on indoor air quality. A 2010 survey of six e-cigarette models found that none of the products provided disposal instructions for spent cartridges containing nicotine. Notably, some e-cigarette manufacturers claim their e-cigarettes are 'eco-friendly' or 'green', despite the lack of any supporting data or environmental impact studies. Some authors argue that such advertising may boost sales and increase e-cigarette appeal, especially among adolescents. Little is known about the environmental impacts of e-cigarettes, and a number of topics could be further elucidated by additional investigation. These topics include potential environmental impacts related to manufacturing, use and disposal. The environmental impacts of e-cigarette manufacturing will depend upon factory size and the nicotine extracting method used. The environmental impacts of e-cigarette use will include chemical and aerosol exposure in the indoor environment. The environmental impacts of disposal of e-cigarette cartridges (which contain residual nicotine) and disposal of e-cigarettes (which contain batteries) represent yet another environmental concern.

Leptospirosis in American Samoa – Estimating and Mapping Risk Using Environmental Data

PubMed Central

Lau, Colleen L.; Clements, Archie C. A.; Skelly, Chris; Dobson, Annette J.; Smythe, Lee D.; Weinstein, Philip

2012-01-01

Background The recent emergence of leptospirosis has been linked to many environmental drivers of disease transmission. Accurate epidemiological data are lacking because of under-diagnosis, poor laboratory capacity, and inadequate surveillance. Predictive risk maps have been produced for many diseases to identify high-risk areas for infection and guide allocation of public health resources, and are particularly useful where disease surveillance is poor. To date, no predictive risk maps have been produced for leptospirosis. The objectives of this study were to estimate leptospirosis seroprevalence at geographic locations based on environmental factors, produce a predictive disease risk map for American Samoa, and assess the accuracy of the maps in predicting infection risk. Methodology and Principal Findings Data on seroprevalence and risk factors were obtained from a recent study of leptospirosis in American Samoa. Data on environmental variables were obtained from local sources, and included rainfall, altitude, vegetation, soil type, and location of backyard piggeries. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to investigate associations between seropositivity and risk factors. Using the multivariable models, seroprevalence at geographic locations was predicted based on environmental variables. Goodness of fit of models was measured using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic, and the percentage of cases correctly classified as seropositive. Environmental predictors of seroprevalence included living below median altitude of a village, in agricultural areas, on clay soil, and higher density of piggeries above the house. Models had acceptable goodness of fit, and correctly classified ∼84% of cases. Conclusions and Significance Environmental variables could be used to identify high-risk areas for leptospirosis. Environmental monitoring could potentially be a valuable strategy for leptospirosis control, and allow us to move from disease surveillance to environmental health hazard surveillance as a more cost-effective tool for directing public health interventions. PMID:22666516

Random regression models using different functions to model milk flow in dairy cows.

PubMed

Laureano, M M M; Bignardi, A B; El Faro, L; Cardoso, V L; Tonhati, H; Albuquerque, L G

2014-09-12

We analyzed 75,555 test-day milk flow records from 2175 primiparous Holstein cows that calved between 1997 and 2005. Milk flow was obtained by dividing the mean milk yield (kg) of the 3 daily milking by the total milking time (min) and was expressed as kg/min. Milk flow was grouped into 43 weekly classes. The analyses were performed using a single-trait Random Regression Models that included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. In addition, the contemporary group and linear and quadratic effects of cow age at calving were included as fixed effects. Fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial of days in milk was used to model the mean trend in milk flow. The additive genetic and permanent environmental covariance functions were estimated using random regression Legendre polynomials and B-spline functions of days in milk. The model using a third-order Legendre polynomial for additive genetic effects and a sixth-order polynomial for permanent environmental effects, which contained 7 residual classes, proved to be the most adequate to describe variations in milk flow, and was also the most parsimonious. The heritability in milk flow estimated by the most parsimonious model was of moderate to high magnitude.

USEEIO: a New and Transparent United States ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

National-scope environmental life cycle models of goods and services may be used for many purposes, not limited to quantifying impacts of production and consumption of nations, assessing organization-wide impacts, identifying purchasing hot spots, analyzing environmental impacts of policies, and performing streamlined life cycle assessment. USEEIO is a new environmentally extended input-output model of the United States fit for such purposes and other sustainable materials management applications. USEEIO melds data on economic transactions between 389 industry sectors with environmental data for these sectors covering land, water, energy and mineral usage and emissions of greenhouse gases, criteria air pollutants, nutrients and toxics, to build a life cycle model of 385 US goods and services. In comparison with existing US input-output models, USEEIO is more current with most data representing year 2013, more extensive in its coverage of resources and emissions, more deliberate and detailed in its interpretation and combination of data sources, and includes formal data quality evaluation and description. USEEIO was assembled with a new Python module called the IO Model Builder capable of assembling and calculating results of user-defined input-output models and exporting the models into LCA software. The model and data quality evaluation capabilities are demonstrated with an analysis of the environmental performance of an average hospital in the US. All USEEIO f

Environmental Assessment for Airborne Laser Debris Management Vandenberg AFB, California

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-01

use, aesthetics, hazardous materials management, soils and geology, noise, cultural resources, and environmental justice. The resources analyzed in...more detail include: health and safety, hazardous waste management, water resources, air quality, and biological resources. Environmental Effects Under...either intact or destroyed target missiles could result in several potential hazards . Health and Safety. Based on the debris migration modeling and

Energy and environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loulou, Richard; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Zaccour, Georges

2005-07-01

This volume on energy and environmental modeling describes a broad variety of modeling methodologies. It includes chapters covering: The Sustainability of Economic Growth by Cabo, Martin-Herran & Martinez-Garcia; Abatement Scenarios in the Swiss Housing Sector by L. Drouet and others; Support and Planning for Off-Site Emergency Management, by Geldermann and others; Hybrid Energy-Economy Models, by Jaccard; The World-MARKAL Model and Its Application, by Kanudia and others; Methodology for Evaluating a Market of Tradable CO{sub 2}-Permits, by Kunsch and Springael; MERGE - A Model for Global Climate Change, by Manne and Richels; A Linear Programming Model for Capacity Expansion in anmore » Autonomous Power Generation System, by Mavrotas and Diakoulaki; Transport and Climate Policy Modeling in the Transport Sector, by Paltsev and others; Analysis of Ontario Electricity Capacity Requirements and Emissions, by Pineau and Schott; Environmental Damage in Energy/Environmental Policy Evaluation, by Van Regemorter. 71 figs.« less

Consideration of species community composition in statistical ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Diseases are increasing in marine ecosystems, and these increases have been attributed to a number of environmental factors including climate change, pollution, and overfishing. However, many studies pool disease prevalence into taxonomic groups, disregarding host species composition when comparing sites or assessing environmental impacts on patterns of disease presence. We used simulated data under a known environmental effect to assess the ability of standard statistical methods (binomial and linear regression, ANOVA) to detect a significant environmental effect on pooled disease prevalence with varying species abundance distributions and relative susceptibilities to disease. When one species was more susceptible to a disease and both species only partially overlapped in their distributions, models tended to produce a greater number of false positives (Type I error). Differences in disease risk between regions or along an environmental gradient tended to be underestimated, or even in the wrong direction, when highly susceptible taxa had reduced abundances in impacted sites, a situation likely to be common in nature. Including relative abundance as an additional variable in regressions improved model accuracy, but tended to be conservative, producing more false negatives (Type II error) when species abundance was strongly correlated with the environmental effect. Investigators should be cautious of underlying assumptions of species similarity in susceptib

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Longgao; Yang, Xiaoyan; School of Environmental Science and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116

The implementation of land use planning (LUP) has a large impact on environmental quality. There lacks a widely accepted and consolidated approach to assess the LUP environmental impact using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). In this paper, we developed a state-impact-state (SIS) model employed in the LUP environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). With the usage of Matter-element (ME) and Extenics method, the methodology based on the SIS model was established and applied in the LUPEA of Zoucheng County, China. The results show that: (1) this methodology provides an intuitive and easy understanding logical model for both the theoretical analysis and application ofmore » LUPEA; (2) the spatial multi-temporal assessment from base year, near-future year to planning target year suggests the positive impact on the environmental quality in the whole County despite certain environmental degradation in some towns; (3) besides the spatial assessment, other achievements including the environmental elements influenced by land use and their weights, the identification of key indicators in LUPEA, and the appropriate environmental mitigation measures were obtained; and (4) this methodology can be used to achieve multi-temporal assessment of LUP environmental impact of County or Town level in other areas. - Highlights: • A State-Impact-State model for Land Use Planning Environmental Assessment (LUPEA). • Matter-element (ME) and Extenics methods were embedded in the LUPEA. • The model was applied to the LUPEA of Zoucheng County. • The assessment shows improving environment quality since 2000 in Zoucheng County. • The method provides a useful tool for the LUPEA in the county level.« less

Hydra, a model system for environmental studies.

PubMed

Quinn, Brian; Gagné, François; Blaise, Christian

2012-01-01

Hydra have been extensively used for studying the teratogenic and toxic potential of numerous toxins throughout the years and are more recently growing in popularity to assess the impacts of environmental pollutants. Hydra are an appropriate bioindicator species for use in environmental assessment owing to their easily measurable physical (morphology), biochemical (xenobiotic biotransformation; oxidative stress), behavioural (feeding) and reproductive (sexual and asexual) endpoints. Hydra also possess an unparalleled ability to regenerate, allowing the assessment of teratogenic compounds and the impact of contaminants on stem cells. Importantly, Hydra are ubiquitous throughout freshwater environments and relatively easy to culture making them appropriate for use in small scale bioassay systems. Hydra have been used to assess the environmental impacts of numerous environmental pollutants including metals, organic toxicants (including pharmaceuticals and endocrine disrupting compounds), nanomaterials and industrial and municipal effluents. They have been found to be among the most sensitive animals tested for metals and certain effluents, comparing favourably with more standardised toxicity tests. Despite their lack of use in formalised monitoring programmes, Hydra have been extensively used and are regarded as a model organism in aquatic toxicology.

The effects of indoor environmental exposures on pediatric asthma: a discrete event simulation model.

PubMed

Fabian, M Patricia; Stout, Natasha K; Adamkiewicz, Gary; Geggel, Amelia; Ren, Cizao; Sandel, Megan; Levy, Jonathan I

2012-09-18

In the United States, asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood across all socioeconomic classes and is the most frequent cause of hospitalization among children. Asthma exacerbations have been associated with exposure to residential indoor environmental stressors such as allergens and air pollutants as well as numerous additional factors. Simulation modeling is a valuable tool that can be used to evaluate interventions for complex multifactorial diseases such as asthma but in spite of its flexibility and applicability, modeling applications in either environmental exposures or asthma have been limited to date. We designed a discrete event simulation model to study the effect of environmental factors on asthma exacerbations in school-age children living in low-income multi-family housing. Model outcomes include asthma symptoms, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits. Environmental factors were linked to percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1%), which in turn was linked to risk equations for each outcome. Exposures affecting FEV1% included indoor and outdoor sources of NO2 and PM2.5, cockroach allergen, and dampness as a proxy for mold. Model design parameters and equations are described in detail. We evaluated the model by simulating 50,000 children over 10 years and showed that pollutant concentrations and health outcome rates are comparable to values reported in the literature. In an application example, we simulated what would happen if the kitchen and bathroom exhaust fans were improved for the entire cohort, and showed reductions in pollutant concentrations and healthcare utilization rates. We describe the design and evaluation of a discrete event simulation model of pediatric asthma for children living in low-income multi-family housing. Our model simulates the effect of environmental factors (combustion pollutants and allergens), medication compliance, seasonality, and medical history on asthma outcomes (symptom-days, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits). The model can be used to evaluate building interventions and green building construction practices on pollutant concentrations, energy savings, and asthma healthcare utilization costs, and demonstrates the value of a simulation approach for studying complex diseases such as asthma.

The effects of indoor environmental exposures on pediatric asthma: a discrete event simulation model

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In the United States, asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood across all socioeconomic classes and is the most frequent cause of hospitalization among children. Asthma exacerbations have been associated with exposure to residential indoor environmental stressors such as allergens and air pollutants as well as numerous additional factors. Simulation modeling is a valuable tool that can be used to evaluate interventions for complex multifactorial diseases such as asthma but in spite of its flexibility and applicability, modeling applications in either environmental exposures or asthma have been limited to date. Methods We designed a discrete event simulation model to study the effect of environmental factors on asthma exacerbations in school-age children living in low-income multi-family housing. Model outcomes include asthma symptoms, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits. Environmental factors were linked to percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1%), which in turn was linked to risk equations for each outcome. Exposures affecting FEV1% included indoor and outdoor sources of NO2 and PM2.5, cockroach allergen, and dampness as a proxy for mold. Results Model design parameters and equations are described in detail. We evaluated the model by simulating 50,000 children over 10 years and showed that pollutant concentrations and health outcome rates are comparable to values reported in the literature. In an application example, we simulated what would happen if the kitchen and bathroom exhaust fans were improved for the entire cohort, and showed reductions in pollutant concentrations and healthcare utilization rates. Conclusions We describe the design and evaluation of a discrete event simulation model of pediatric asthma for children living in low-income multi-family housing. Our model simulates the effect of environmental factors (combustion pollutants and allergens), medication compliance, seasonality, and medical history on asthma outcomes (symptom-days, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits). The model can be used to evaluate building interventions and green building construction practices on pollutant concentrations, energy savings, and asthma healthcare utilization costs, and demonstrates the value of a simulation approach for studying complex diseases such as asthma. PMID:22989068

76 FR 7572 - National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences; Notice of Meetings

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-10

...: Interagency Breast Cancer and Environmental Research Coordinating Committee (IBCERC) Research Translation... IBCERC including: increasing public participation in decisions relating to breast cancer research by... area and creating models for dissemination of information regarding the progress of breast cancer...

Addressing critical environmental data gaps via low-cost, real-time, cellular-based environmental monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caylor, K. K.; Wolf, A.; Siegfried, B.

2014-12-01

Models in the environmental sciences are repositories in a sense of the current state of understanding of critical processes. However, as our understanding of these processes (and their accompanying models) become more granular, the data requirements to parameterize them become more limiting. In addition, as these models become more useful, they are often pressed into service for decision support, meaning that they cannot accept the data latency typical of most environmental observations. Finally, the vast majority of environmental data is generated at highly-instrumented, infrastructure-rich "mega sites" in the US/Europe, while many of the most pressing environmental issues are in rural locales and in the developing world. Cellular-based environmental sensing is a promising means to provide granular data in real time from remote locales to improve model-based forecasting using data assimilation. Applications we are working on include drought forecasting and food security; forest and crop responses to weather and climate change; and rural water usage. Over the past two years, we have developed a suite of integrated hardware, firmware, and backend APIs that accommodates an unlimited variety of sensors, and propagates these data onto the internet over mobile networks. Scientific data holds a unique role for demanding well-characterized information on sensor error and our design attempts to balance error reduction with low costs. The result is a deployment system that undercuts competing commercial products by as much as 90%, allowing more ubiquitous deployment with lower risks associated with sensor loss. Enclosure design and power management are critical ingredients for remote deployments under variable environmental conditions. Sensors push data onto cloud storage and make this data available via public API's via a backend server that accommodates additional metadata essential for interpreting observations, particularly their measurement errors. The data these pods collect can expand weather monitoring, but more crucially can monitor otherwise unobserved biological (including human) responses to environmental drivers. These data in turn can be assimilated into models, as a means to contextualize and distill these noisy observations into actionable knowledge.

Animal Models of Peripheral Neuropathy Due to Environmental Toxicants

PubMed Central

Rao, Deepa B.; Jortner, Bernard S.; Sills, Robert C.

2014-01-01

Despite the progress in our understanding of pathogeneses and the identification of etiologies of peripheral neuropathy, idiopathic neuropathy remains common. Typically, attention to peripheral neuropathies resulting from exposure to environmental agents is limited relative to more commonly diagnosed causes of peripheral neuropathy (diabetes and chemotherapeutic agents). Given that there are more than 80,000 chemicals in commerce registered with the Environmental Protection Agency and that at least 1000 chemicals are known to have neurotoxic potential, very few chemicals have been established to affect the peripheral nervous system (mainly after occupational exposures). A wide spectrum of exposures, including pesticides, metals, solvents, nutritional sources, and pharmaceutical agents, has been related, both historically and recently, to environmental toxicant-induced peripheral neuropathy. A review of the literature shows that the toxicity and pathogeneses of chemicals adversely affecting the peripheral nervous system have been studied using animal models. This article includes an overview of five prototypical environmental agents known to cause peripheral neuropathy—namely, organophosphates, carbon disulfide, pyridoxine (Vitamin B6), acrylamide, and hexacarbons (mainly n-hexane, 2,5-hexanedione, methyl n-butyl ketone). Also included is a brief introduction to the structural components of the peripheral nervous system and pointers on common methodologies for histopathologic evaluation of the peripheral nerves. PMID:24615445

Learning and teaching for an ecological sense of place: Toward environmental/science education praxis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hug, J. William

1998-09-01

This research presents a teaching model designed to enable learners to construct a highly developed ecological perspective and sense of place. The contextually-based research process draws upon scientific and indigenous knowledge from multiple data sources including: autobiographical experiences, environmental literature, science and environmental education research, historical approaches to environmental education, and phenomenological accounts from research participants. Data were analyzed using the theoretical frameworks of qualitative research, hermeneutic phenomenology, heuristics, and constructivism. The resulting model synthesizes and incorporates key educational philosophies and practices from: nature study, resident outdoor education, organized camping, conservation education, environmental education, earth education, outdoor recreation, sustainability, bio-regionalism, deep ecology, ecological and environmental literacy, science and technology in society, and adventure/challenge/experiential education. The model's four components--environmental knowledge, practicing responsible environmental behaviors, community-focused involvement, and direct experience in outdoor settings--contribute in a synergistic way to the development of ecological perspective and a sense of place. The model was honed through experiential use in an environmental science methods course for elementary and secondary prospective science teachers. The instructor/researcher employed individualized instruction, community-based learning, service learning, and the modeling of reflective teaching principles in pursuit of the model's goals. The resulting pedagogical knowledge extends the model's usefulness to such formal and non-formal educational contexts as: elementary/secondary classrooms, nature centers, museums, youth groups, and community organizations. This research has implications for the fields of education, geography, recreation/leisure studies, science teaching, and environmental education. Several aspects of this work make it novel. First, autobiographical and literature-based stories anchor the representations of ecological perspective and sense of place. Second, the dissertation text visually differentiates between story narrative, researcher narrative, and meta-narrative in order to convey the positionality of the researcher's distinct voices. Finally, icons are used throughout the text to visually link the model's multi-dimensional intersections. Oh, and by the way, I hope you read it.

A public hedonic analysis of environmental attributes in an open space preservation program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nordman, Erik E.

The Town of Brookhaven, on Long Island, NY, has implemented an open space preservation program to protect natural areas, and the ecosystem services they provide, from suburban growth. I used a public hedonic model of Brookhaven's open space purchases to estimate implicit prices for various environmental attributes, locational variables and spatial metrics. I also measured the correlation between cost per acre and non-monetary environmental benefit scores and tested whether including cost data, as opposed to non-monetary environmental benefit score alone, would change the prioritization ranks of acquired properties. The mean acquisition cost per acre was 82,501. I identified the key on-site environmental and locational variables using stepwise regression for four functional forms. The log-log specification performed best ( R2adj= 0.727). I performed a second stepwise regression (log-log form) which included spatial metrics, calculated from a high-resolution land cover classification, in addition to the environmental and locational variables. This markedly improved the model's performance ( R2adj=0.866). Statistically significant variables included the property size, location in the Pine Barrens Compatible Growth Area, location in a FEMA flood zone, adjacency to public land, and several other environmental dummy variables. The single significant spatial metric, the fractal dimension of the tree cover class, had the largest elasticity of any variable. Of the dummy variables, location within the Compatible Growth Area had the largest implicit price (298,792 per acre). The priority rank for the two methods, non-monetary environmental benefit score alone and the ratio of non-monetary environmental benefit score to acquisition cost were significantly positively correlated. This suggests that, despite the lack of cost data in their ranking method, Brookhaven does not suffer from efficiency losses. The economics literature encourages using both environmental benefits and acquisition costs to ensure cost-effective conservation programs. I recommend that Brookhaven consider acquisition costs in addition to environmental benefits to avert potential efficiency losses in future open space purchases. This dissertation shows that the addition of spatial metrics can enhance the performance of hedonic models. It also provides a baseline valuation for the environmental attributes of Brookhaven' open spaces and shows that location is critical when dealing with open space preservation programs.

SToRM: A numerical model for environmental surface flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simoes, Francisco J.

2009-01-01

SToRM (System for Transport and River Modeling) is a numerical model developed to simulate free surface flows in complex environmental domains. It is based on the depth-averaged St. Venant equations, which are discretized using unstructured upwind finite volume methods, and contains both steady and unsteady solution techniques. This article provides a brief description of the numerical approach selected to discretize the governing equations in space and time, including important aspects of solving natural environmental flows, such as the wetting and drying algorithm. The presentation is illustrated with several application examples, covering both laboratory and natural river flow cases, which show the model’s ability to solve complex flow phenomena.

Building Dynamic Conceptual Physics Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trout, Charlotte; Sinex, Scott A.; Ragan, Susan

2011-01-01

Models are essential to the learning and doing of science, and systems thinking is key to appreciating many environmental issues. The National Science Education Standards include models and systems in their unifying concepts and processes standard, while the AAAS Benchmarks include them in their common themes chapter. Hyerle and Marzano argue for…

Contemporary group estimates adjusted for climatic effects provide a finer definition of the unknown environmental challenges experienced by growing pigs.

PubMed

Guy, S Z Y; Li, L; Thomson, P C; Hermesch, S

2017-12-01

Environmental descriptors derived from mean performances of contemporary groups (CGs) are assumed to capture any known and unknown environmental challenges. The objective of this paper was to obtain a finer definition of the unknown challenges, by adjusting CG estimates for the known climatic effects of monthly maximum air temperature (MaxT), minimum air temperature (MinT) and monthly rainfall (Rain). As the unknown component could include infection challenges, these refined descriptors may help to better model varying responses of sire progeny to environmental infection challenges for the definition of disease resilience. Data were recorded from 1999 to 2013 at a piggery in south-east Queensland, Australia (n = 31,230). Firstly, CG estimates of average daily gain (ADG) and backfat (BF) were adjusted for MaxT, MinT and Rain, which were fitted as splines. In the models used to derive CG estimates for ADG, MaxT and MinT were significant variables. The models that contained these significant climatic variables had CG estimates with a lower variance compared to models without significant climatic variables. Variance component estimates were similar across all models, suggesting that these significant climatic variables accounted for some known environmental variation captured in CG estimates. No climatic variables were significant in the models used to derive the CG estimates for BF. These CG estimates were used to categorize environments. There was no observable sire by environment interaction (Sire×E) for ADG when using the environmental descriptors based on CG estimates on BF. For the environmental descriptors based on CG estimates of ADG, there was significant Sire×E only when MinT was included in the model (p = .01). Therefore, this new definition of the environment, preadjusted by MinT, increased the ability to detect Sire×E. While the unknown challenges captured in refined CG estimates need verification for infection challenges, this may provide a practical approach for the genetic improvement of disease resilience. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Forecasting malaria in a highly endemic country using environmental and clinical predictors.

PubMed

Zinszer, Kate; Kigozi, Ruth; Charland, Katia; Dorsey, Grant; Brewer, Timothy F; Brownstein, John S; Kamya, Moses R; Buckeridge, David L

2015-06-18

Malaria thrives in poor tropical and subtropical countries where local resources are limited. Accurate disease forecasts can provide public and clinical health services with the information needed to implement targeted approaches for malaria control that make effective use of limited resources. The objective of this study was to determine the relevance of environmental and clinical predictors of malaria across different settings in Uganda. Forecasting models were based on health facility data collected by the Uganda Malaria Surveillance Project and satellite-derived rainfall, temperature, and vegetation estimates from 2006 to 2013. Facility-specific forecasting models of confirmed malaria were developed using multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average models and produced weekly forecast horizons over a 52-week forecasting period. The model with the most accurate forecasts varied by site and by forecast horizon. Clinical predictors were retained in the models with the highest predictive power for all facility sites. The average error over the 52 forecasting horizons ranged from 26 to 128% whereas the cumulative burden forecast error ranged from 2 to 22%. Clinical data, such as drug treatment, could be used to improve the accuracy of malaria predictions in endemic settings when coupled with environmental predictors. Further exploration of malaria forecasting is necessary to improve its accuracy and value in practice, including examining other environmental and intervention predictors, including insecticide-treated nets.

Capturing ecology in modeling approaches applied to environmental risk assessment of endocrine active chemicals in fish.

PubMed

Mintram, Kate S; Brown, A Ross; Maynard, Samuel K; Thorbek, Pernille; Tyler, Charles R

2018-02-01

Endocrine active chemicals (EACs) are widespread in freshwater environments and both laboratory and field based studies have shown reproductive effects in fish at environmentally relevant exposures. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) seeks to protect wildlife populations and prospective assessments rely on extrapolation from individual-level effects established for laboratory fish species to populations of wild fish using arbitrary safety factors. Population susceptibility to chemical effects, however, depends on exposure risk, physiological susceptibility, and population resilience, each of which can differ widely between fish species. Population models have significant potential to address these shortfalls and to include individual variability relating to life-history traits, demographic and density-dependent vital rates, and behaviors which arise from inter-organism and organism-environment interactions. Confidence in population models has recently resulted in the EU Commission stating that results derived from reliable models may be considered when assessing the relevance of adverse effects of EACs at the population level. This review critically assesses the potential risks posed by EACs for fish populations, considers the ecological factors influencing these risks and explores the benefits and challenges of applying population modeling (including individual-based modeling) in ERA for EACs in fish. We conclude that population modeling offers a way forward for incorporating greater environmental relevance in assessing the risks of EACs for fishes and for identifying key risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Individual-based models (IBMs) allow for the incorporation of physiological and behavioral endpoints relevant to EAC exposure effects, thus capturing both direct and indirect population-level effects.

A qualitative study of epistemologies and pedagogies of environmental practitioners in Maui, Hawai'i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buczynski, Sandra C.

This dissertation presents a discussion of the knowledge systems and teaching styles of five environmental practitioners in Maui, Hawaii. The voices of the informants illustrate the beliefs, values, and priorities relevant to local environmental knowledge production and exchange, and are also used to provide a framework for models of epistemological and pedagogical practices. In this qualitative research, several models of local environmental knowledge emerged. The models include local environmental knowledge as a semiotic system, knowledge given and received from narrative sources, experiential based knowledge, and place and plant priorities in seeking and dispensing environmental information. The notion of what constitutes environmental knowledge was expanded through careful interpretation of the informant's voice. Several broad conclusions concerning local environmental knowledge emerged from this research. First, local environmental knowledge is formed through a long-term relationship between the practitioner, the land, and natural resources. Secondly, each of the environmental practitioner's local environmental knowledge is dynamic, plural and hybrid. And finally, transmission of the environmental practitioner's local environmental knowledge is integral to the life of the community as well as a component of their personal identities. Through these local environmental practitioners, endemic knowledge is shared, indigenous species are spared, traditional practices are passed down, customary ways are preserved, and unique ways of knowing and teaching are appreciated. 'A'ohe papu ka 'ike i ka halau ho'okahi. All knowledge is not taught in the same school. One can learn from many sources (Pukui, 1983: 24).

Responses of a constructed plant community to combinations of herbicides, a model for field tests?

EPA Science Inventory

As part of its regulation of pesticides, the US Environmental Protection Agency considers environmental risks, including impacts to nontarget plants exposed to pesticide drift. Normally these risk assessments consider impacts to individual species, using greenhouse, exposure-res...

Experiential Education for Urban African Americans.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Jennifer G.; McGinnis, J. Randy

1995-01-01

Stresses the importance of experiential educators being prepared to teach environmental education to students in specific contexts. A model for urban African American students includes the introduction and selection of a relevant local environmental issue; teaching strategies to investigate the issue; and techniques for initiating environmental…

Responses of constructed plant community to combinations of herbicides, a model for field tests?

EPA Science Inventory

As part of its regulation of pesticides, the US Environmental Protection Agency must consider environmental risks, including impacts to non-target plants exposed to pesticide drift. Normally these risk assessments consider impacts to individual species, using greenhouse, dose-re...

Computing and Systems Applied in Support of Coordinated Energy, Environmental, and Climate Planning

EPA Science Inventory

This talk focuses on how Dr. Loughlin is applying Computing and Systems models, tools and methods to more fully understand the linkages among energy systems, environmental quality, and climate change. Dr. Loughlin will highlight recent and ongoing research activities, including: ...

Meteorological measurements. Chapter 3

Treesearch

David Y. Hollinger

2008-01-01

Environmental measurements are useful for detecting climatic trends, understanding how the environment influences biological processes, and as input to ecosystem models. Landscape-scale monitoring requires a suite of environmental measures for all of these purposes, including air and soil temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation and soil moisture, and different...

Hazardous waste management system design under population and environmental impact considerations.

PubMed

Yilmaz, Ozge; Kara, Bahar Y; Yetis, Ulku

2017-12-01

This paper presents a multi objective mixed integer location/routing model that aims to minimize transportation cost and risks for large-scale hazardous waste management systems (HWMSs). Risks induced by hazardous wastes (HWs) on both public and the environment are addressed. For this purpose, a new environmental impact definition is proposed that considers the environmentally vulnerable elements including water bodies, agricultural areas, coastal regions and forestlands located within a certain bandwidth around transportation routes. The solution procedure yields to Pareto optimal curve for two conflicting objectives. The conceptual model developed prior to mathematical formulation addresses waste-to-technology compatibility and HW processing residues to assure applicability of the model to real-life HWMSs. The suggested model was used in a case study targeting HWMS in Turkey. Based on the proposed solution, it was possible to identify not only the transportation routes but also a set of information on HW handling facilities including the types, locations, capacities, and investment/operational cost. The HWMS of this study can be utilized both by public authorities and private sector investors for planning purposes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model for the perception of environmental sound based on notice-events.

PubMed

De Coensel, Bert; Botteldooren, Dick; De Muer, Tom; Berglund, Birgitta; Nilsson, Mats E; Lercher, Peter

2009-08-01

An approach is proposed to shed light on the mechanisms underlying human perception of environmental sound that intrudes in everyday living. Most research on exposure-effect relationships aims at relating overall effects to overall exposure indicators in an epidemiological fashion, without including available knowledge on the possible underlying mechanisms. Here, it is proposed to start from available knowledge on audition and perception to construct a computational framework for the effect of environmental sound on individuals. Obviously, at the individual level additional mechanisms (inter-sensory, attentional, cognitive, emotional) play a role in the perception of environmental sound. As a first step, current knowledge is made explicit by building a model mimicking some aspects of human auditory perception. This model is grounded in the hypothesis that long-term perception of environmental sound is determined primarily by short notice-events. The applicability of the notice-event model is illustrated by simulating a synthetic population exposed to typical Flemish environmental noise. From these simulation results, it is demonstrated that the notice-event model is able to mimic the differences between the annoyance caused by road traffic noise exposure and railway traffic noise exposure that are also observed empirically in other studies and thus could provide an explanation for these differences.

Remotely-sensed, nocturnal, dew point correlates with malaria transmission in Southern Province, Zambia: a time-series study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Plasmodium falciparum transmission has decreased significantly in Zambia in the last decade. The malaria transmission is influenced by environmental variables. Incorporation of environmental variables in models of malaria transmission likely improves model fit and predicts probable trends in malaria disease. This work is based on the hypothesis that remotely-sensed environmental factors, including nocturnal dew point, are associated with malaria transmission and sustain foci of transmission during the low transmission season in the Southern Province of Zambia. Methods Thirty-eight rural health centres in Southern Province, Zambia were divided into three zones based on transmission patterns. Correlations between weekly malaria cases and remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point, nocturnal land surface temperature as well as vegetation indices and rainfall were evaluated in time-series analyses from 2012 week 19 to 2013 week 36. Zonal as well as clinic-based, multivariate, autoregressive, integrated, moving average (ARIMAX) models implementing environmental variables were developed to model transmission in 2011 week 19 to 2012 week 18 and forecast transmission in 2013 week 37 to week 41. Results During the dry, low transmission season significantly higher vegetation indices, nocturnal land surface temperature and nocturnal dew point were associated with the areas of higher transmission. Environmental variables improved ARIMAX models. Dew point and normalized differentiated vegetation index were significant predictors and improved all zonal transmission models. In the high-transmission zone, this was also seen for land surface temperature. Clinic models were improved by adding dew point and land surface temperature as well as normalized differentiated vegetation index. The mean average error of prediction for ARIMAX models ranged from 0.7 to 33.5%. Forecasts of malaria incidence were valid for three out of five rural health centres; however, with poor results at the zonal level. Conclusions In this study, the fit of ARIMAX models improves when environmental variables are included. There is a significant association of remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point with malaria transmission. Interestingly, dew point might be one of the factors sustaining malaria transmission in areas of general aridity during the dry season. PMID:24927747

Remotely-sensed, nocturnal, dew point correlates with malaria transmission in Southern Province, Zambia: a time-series study.

PubMed

Nygren, David; Stoyanov, Cristina; Lewold, Clemens; Månsson, Fredrik; Miller, John; Kamanga, Aniset; Shiff, Clive J

2014-06-13

Plasmodium falciparum transmission has decreased significantly in Zambia in the last decade. The malaria transmission is influenced by environmental variables. Incorporation of environmental variables in models of malaria transmission likely improves model fit and predicts probable trends in malaria disease. This work is based on the hypothesis that remotely-sensed environmental factors, including nocturnal dew point, are associated with malaria transmission and sustain foci of transmission during the low transmission season in the Southern Province of Zambia. Thirty-eight rural health centres in Southern Province, Zambia were divided into three zones based on transmission patterns. Correlations between weekly malaria cases and remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point, nocturnal land surface temperature as well as vegetation indices and rainfall were evaluated in time-series analyses from 2012 week 19 to 2013 week 36. Zonal as well as clinic-based, multivariate, autoregressive, integrated, moving average (ARIMAX) models implementing environmental variables were developed to model transmission in 2011 week 19 to 2012 week 18 and forecast transmission in 2013 week 37 to week 41. During the dry, low transmission season significantly higher vegetation indices, nocturnal land surface temperature and nocturnal dew point were associated with the areas of higher transmission. Environmental variables improved ARIMAX models. Dew point and normalized differentiated vegetation index were significant predictors and improved all zonal transmission models. In the high-transmission zone, this was also seen for land surface temperature. Clinic models were improved by adding dew point and land surface temperature as well as normalized differentiated vegetation index. The mean average error of prediction for ARIMAX models ranged from 0.7 to 33.5%. Forecasts of malaria incidence were valid for three out of five rural health centres; however, with poor results at the zonal level. In this study, the fit of ARIMAX models improves when environmental variables are included. There is a significant association of remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point with malaria transmission. Interestingly, dew point might be one of the factors sustaining malaria transmission in areas of general aridity during the dry season.

Unconventional Fossil-Based Fuels. Economic and Environmental Trade-Offs

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

methodology employed in research; provide literature reviews, survey instruments, modeling exercises, guidelines for practitioners and research profes...environmental barriers addressed include CO2 emissions and more local and regional concerns related to water and land . Our primary focus is on the longer... lands for research and development and perform a programmatic environmental-impact state- ment regarding the production of liquid fuels from oil

Informing Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles.

PubMed

Horne, Avril C; Szemis, Joanna M; Webb, J Angus; Kaur, Simranjit; Stewardson, Michael J; Bond, Nick; Nathan, Rory

2018-03-01

One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.

Informing Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horne, Avril C.; Szemis, Joanna M.; Webb, J. Angus; Kaur, Simranjit; Stewardson, Michael J.; Bond, Nick; Nathan, Rory

2018-03-01

One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.

Mixture toxicity in the marine environment: Model development and evidence for synergism at environmental concentrations.

PubMed

Deruytter, David; Baert, Jan M; Nevejan, Nancy; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C; Janssen, Colin R

2017-12-01

Little is known about the effect of metal mixtures on marine organisms, especially after exposure to environmentally realistic concentrations. This information is, however, required to evaluate the need to include mixtures in future environmental risk assessment procedures. We assessed the effect of copper (Cu)-Nickel (Ni) binary mixtures on Mytilus edulis larval development using a full factorial design that included environmentally relevant metal concentrations and ratios. The reproducibility of the results was assessed by repeating this experiment 5 times. The observed mixture effects were compared with the effects predicted with the concentration addition model. Deviations from the concentration addition model were estimated using a Markov chain Monte-Carlo algorithm. This enabled the accurate estimation of the deviations and their uncertainty. The results demonstrated reproducibly that the type of interaction-synergism or antagonism-mainly depended on the Ni concentration. Antagonism was observed at high Ni concentrations, whereas synergism occurred at Ni concentrations as low as 4.9 μg Ni/L. This low (and realistic) Ni concentration was 1% of the median effective concentration (EC50) of Ni or 57% of the Ni predicted-no-effect concentration (PNEC) in the European Union environmental risk assessment. It is concluded that results from mixture studies should not be extrapolated to concentrations or ratios other than those investigated and that significant mixture interactions can occur at environmentally realistic concentrations. This should be accounted for in (marine) environmental risk assessment of metals. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:3471-3479. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

THE ENVIRONMENT AND SUSCEPTIBILITY TO SCHIZOPHRENIA

PubMed Central

Brown, Alan S.

2010-01-01

In the present article the putative role of environmental factors in schizophrenia is reviewed and synthesized. Accumulating evidence from recent studies suggests that environmental exposures may play a more significant role in the etiopathogenesis of this disorder than previously thought. This expanding knowledge base is largely a consequence of refinements in the methodology of epidemiologic studies, including birth cohort investigations, and in preclinical research that has been inspired by the evolving literature on animal models of environmental exposures. The bulk of evidence supports a contribution of environmental factors acting during fetal and perinatal life; these include infections, nutritional deficiencies, paternal age, fetal/neonatal hypoxic insults, maternal stress and other exposures. A considerable amount of data supports cannabis use in adolescence, migration, unfavorable neighborhood environments, and possibly infections at different points in the lifespan as risk factors for schizophrenia. Animal models have yielded evidence suggesting that these exposures cause brain and behavioral phenotypes that are analogous to findings observed in patients with schizophrenia. It is suggested that future studies attempt to replicate these findings, identify new risk factors, explore the gestational specificity of environmental insults, elaborate developmental trajectories, and examine relationships between environmental exposures and structural and functional brain anomalies in schizophrenia patients. Future research on gene-environment interactions and epigenetic effects of environmental exposures should shed further light on genes and exposures that may not be identified in the absence of these integrated approaches. Moreover, translational studies should further facilitate the discovery of neurodevelopmental mechanisms that increase susceptibility to schizophrenia. The study of environmental factors in schizophrenia may have important implications for the prevention of this disorder, and offers the potential to complement, and refine, existing efforts on explanatory neurodevelopmental models. PMID:955757

The urban environment and sexual risk behavior among men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Frye, Victoria; Latka, Mary H; Koblin, Beryl; Halkitis, Perry N; Putnam, Sara; Galea, Sandro; Vlahov, David

2006-03-01

Increasingly, studies show that characteristics of the urban environment influence a wide variety of health behaviors and disease outcomes, yet few studies have focused on the sexual risk behaviors of men who have sex with men (MSM). This focus is important as many gay men reside in or move to urban areas, and sexual risk behaviors and associated outcomes have increased among some urban MSM in recent years. As interventions aimed at changing individual-level risk behaviors have shown mainly short-term effects, consideration of broader environmental influences is needed. Previous efforts to assess the influence of environmental characteristics on sexual behaviors and related health outcomes among the general population have generally applied three theories as explanatory models: physical disorder, social disorganization and social norms theories. In these models, the intervening mechanisms specified to link environmental characteristics to individual-level outcomes include stress, collective efficacy, and social influence processes, respectively. Whether these models can be empirically supported in generating inferences about the sexual behavior of urban MSM is underdeveloped. Conceptualizing sexual risk among MSM to include social and physical environmental characteristics provides a basis for generating novel and holistic disease prevention and health promotion interventions.

Zebrafish as a Vertebrate Model System to Evaluate Effects of Environmental Toxicants on Cardiac Development and Function.

PubMed

Sarmah, Swapnalee; Marrs, James A

2016-12-16

Environmental pollution is a serious problem of the modern world that possesses a major threat to public health. Exposure to environmental pollutants during embryonic development is particularly risky. Although many pollutants have been verified as potential toxicants, there are new chemicals in the environment that need assessment. Heart development is an extremely sensitive process, which can be affected by environmentally toxic molecule exposure during embryonic development. Congenital heart defects are the most common life-threatening global health problems, and the etiology is mostly unknown. The zebrafish has emerged as an invaluable model to examine substance toxicity on vertebrate development, particularly on cardiac development. The zebrafish offers numerous advantages for toxicology research not found in other model systems. Many laboratories have used the zebrafish to study the effects of widespread chemicals in the environment on heart development, including pesticides, nanoparticles, and various organic pollutants. Here, we review the uses of the zebrafish in examining effects of exposure to external molecules during embryonic development in causing cardiac defects, including chemicals ubiquitous in the environment and illicit drugs. Known or potential mechanisms of toxicity and how zebrafish research can be used to provide mechanistic understanding of cardiac defects are discussed.

Modelling food-web mediated effects of hydrological variability and environmental flows.

PubMed

Robson, Barbara J; Lester, Rebecca E; Baldwin, Darren S; Bond, Nicholas R; Drouart, Romain; Rolls, Robert J; Ryder, Darren S; Thompson, Ross M

2017-11-01

Environmental flows are designed to enhance aquatic ecosystems through a variety of mechanisms; however, to date most attention has been paid to the effects on habitat quality and life-history triggers, especially for fish and vegetation. The effects of environmental flows on food webs have so far received little attention, despite food-web thinking being fundamental to understanding of river ecosystems. Understanding environmental flows in a food-web context can help scientists and policy-makers better understand and manage outcomes of flow alteration and restoration. In this paper, we consider mechanisms by which flow variability can influence and alter food webs, and place these within a conceptual and numerical modelling framework. We also review the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches to modelling the effects of hydrological management on food webs. Although classic bioenergetic models such as Ecopath with Ecosim capture many of the key features required, other approaches, such as biogeochemical ecosystem modelling, end-to-end modelling, population dynamic models, individual-based models, graph theory models, and stock assessment models are also relevant. In many cases, a combination of approaches will be useful. We identify current challenges and new directions in modelling food-web responses to hydrological variability and environmental flow management. These include better integration of food-web and hydraulic models, taking physiologically-based approaches to food quality effects, and better representation of variations in space and time that may create ecosystem control points. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the survival responses of a multi-component biofilm to environmental stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carles Brangarí, Albert; Manzoni, Stefano; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier; Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel

2017-04-01

Biofilms are consortia of microorganisms embedded in self-produced matrices of biopolymers. The survival of such communities depends on their capacity to improve the environmental conditions of their habitat by mitigating, or even benefitting from some adverse external factors. The mechanisms by which the microbial habitat is regulated remain mostly unknown. However, many studies have reported physiological responses to environmental stresses that include the release of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) and the induction of a dormancy state. A sound understanding of these capacities is required to enhance the knowledge of the microbial dynamics in soils and its potential role in the carbon cycle, with significant implications for the degradation of contaminants and the emission of greenhouse gases, among others. We present a numerical analysis of the dynamics of soil microbes and their responses to environmental stresses. The conceptual model considers a multi-component heterotrophic biofilm made up of active cells, dormant cells, EPS, and extracellular enzymes. Biofilm distribution and properties are defined at the pore-scale and used to determine nutrient availability and water saturation via feedbacks of biofilm on soil hydraulic properties. The pore space micro-habitat is modeled as a simplified pore-network of cylindrical tubes in which biofilms proliferate. Microbial compartments and most of the carbon fluxes are defined at the bulk level. Microbial processes include the synthesis, decay and detachment of biomass, the activation/deactivation of cells, and the release and reutilization of EPS. Results suggest that the release of EPS and the capacity to enter a dormant state offer clear evolutionary advantages in scenarios characterized by environmental stress. On the contrary, when the conditions are favorable, the diversion of carbon into the production of the aforementioned survival mechanisms does not confer any additional benefit and the population of active cells decline. The proposed model (including complex relations between active biomass and biofilm) has been proved useful to capture the most relevant processes involved in biofilm proliferation and its adaptation to environmental conditions. These aspects are largely neglected in biogeochemical models, but could be relevant in soils where strong feedbacks of microbial activity on hydraulic properties emerge.

Research gaps related to the environmental impacts of electronic cigarettes

PubMed Central

Chang, Hoshing

2014-01-01

Objective To consider the research gaps related to the environmental impacts of electronic cigarettes due to their manufacture, use and disposal. Methods Literature searches were conducted through December 2013. Studies were included in this review if they related to the environmental impacts of e-cigarettes. Results Scientific information on the environmental impacts of e-cigarette manufacturing, use and disposal is very limited. No studies formally evaluated the environmental impacts of the manufacturing process or disposal of components, including batteries. Four studies evaluated potential exposure to secondhand e-cigarette aerosol, an indication of impacts on indoor air quality. A 2010 survey of six e-cigarette models found that none of the products provided disposal instructions for spent cartridges containing nicotine. Notably, some e-cigarette manufacturers claim their e-cigarettes are ‘eco-friendly’ or ‘green’, despite the lack of any supporting data or environmental impact studies. Some authors argue that such advertising may boost sales and increase e-cigarette appeal, especially among adolescents. Conclusions Little is known about the environmental impacts of e-cigarettes, and a number of topics could be further elucidated by additional investigation. These topics include potential environmental impacts related to manufacturing, use and disposal. The environmental impacts of e-cigarette manufacturing will depend upon factory size and the nicotine extracting method used. The environmental impacts of e-cigarette use will include chemical and aerosol exposure in the indoor environment. The environmental impacts of disposal of e-cigarette cartridges (which contain residual nicotine) and disposal of e-cigarettes (which contain batteries) represent yet another environmental concern. PMID:24732165

The environment and susceptibility to schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Brown, Alan S.

2012-01-01

In the present article the putative role of environmental factors in schizophrenia is reviewed and synthesized. Accumulating evidence from recent studies suggests that environmental exposures may play a more significant role in the etiopathogenesis of this disorder than previously thought. This expanding knowledge base is largely a consequence of refinements in the methodology of epidemiologic studies, including birth cohort investigations, and in preclinical research that has been inspired by the evolving literature on animal models of environmental exposures. This paper is divided into four sections. In the first, the descriptive epidemiology of schizophrenia is reviewed. This includes general studies on incidence, prevalence, and differences in these measures by urban–rural, neighborhood, migrant, and season of birth status, as well as time trends. In the second section, we discuss the contribution of environmental risk factors acting during fetal and perinatal life; these include infections [e.g. rubella, influenza, Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii), herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2)], nutritional deficiencies (e.g., famine, folic acid, iron, vitamin D), paternal age, fetal/neonatal hypoxic and other obstetric insults and complications, maternal stress and other exposures [e.g. lead, rhesus (Rh) incompatibility, maternal stress]. Other putative neurodevelopmental determinants, including cannabis, socioeconomic status, trauma, and infections during childhood and adolescence are also covered. In the third section, these findings are synthesized and their implications for prevention and uncovering biological mechanisms, including oxidative stress, apoptosis, and inflammation, are discussed. Animal models, including maternal immune activation, have yielded evidence suggesting that these exposures cause brain and behavioral phenotypes that are analogous to findings observed in patients with schizophrenia. In the final section, future studies including new, larger, and more rigorous epidemiologic investigations, and research on translational and clinical neuroscience, gene–environment interactions, epigenetics, developmental trajectories and windows of vulnerability, are elaborated upon. These studies are aimed at confirming observed risk factors, identifying new environmental exposures, elucidating developmental mechanisms, and shedding further light on genes and exposures that may not be identified in the absence of these integrated approaches. The study of environmental factors in schizophrenia may have important implications for the identification of causes and prevention of this disorder, and offers the potential to complement, and refine, existing efforts on explanatory neurodevelopmental models. PMID:20955757

Marshall Space Flight Center ECLSS technology activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wieland, Paul

1990-01-01

Viewgraphs on Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) technology activities are presented. Topics covered include: analytical development; ECLSS modeling approach; example of water reclamation modeling needs; and hardware development and testing.

Analysis of lethal and sublethal impacts of environmental disasters on sperm whales using stochastic modeling.

PubMed

Ackleh, Azmy S; Chiquet, Ross A; Ma, Baoling; Tang, Tingting; Caswell, Hal; Veprauskas, Amy; Sidorovskaia, Natalia

2017-08-01

Mathematical models are essential for combining data from multiple sources to quantify population endpoints. This is especially true for species, such as marine mammals, for which data on vital rates are difficult to obtain. Since the effects of an environmental disaster are not fixed, we develop time-varying (nonautonomous) matrix population models that account for the eventual recovery of the environment to the pre-disaster state. We use these models to investigate how lethal and sublethal impacts (in the form of reductions in the survival and fecundity, respectively) affect the population's recovery process. We explore two scenarios of the environmental recovery process and include the effect of demographic stochasticity. Our results provide insights into the relationship between the magnitude of the disaster, the duration of the disaster, and the probability that the population recovers to pre-disaster levels or a biologically relevant threshold level. To illustrate this modeling methodology, we provide an application to a sperm whale population. This application was motivated by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico that has impacted a wide variety of species populations including oysters, fish, corals, and whales.

Application of Bayesian networks in a hierarchical structure for environmental risk assessment: a case study of the Gabric Dam, Iran.

PubMed

Malekmohammadi, Bahram; Tayebzadeh Moghadam, Negar

2018-04-13

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a commonly used, effective tool applied to reduce adverse effects of environmental risk factors. In this study, ERA was investigated using the Bayesian network (BN) model based on a hierarchical structure of variables in an influence diagram (ID). ID facilitated ranking of the different alternatives under uncertainty that were then used to evaluate comparisons of the different risk factors. BN was used to present a new model for ERA applicable to complicated development projects such as dam construction. The methodology was applied to the Gabric Dam, in southern Iran. The main environmental risk factors in the region, presented by the Gabric Dam, were identified based on the Delphi technique and specific features of the study area. These included the following: flood, water pollution, earthquake, changes in land use, erosion and sedimentation, effects on the population, and ecosensitivity. These risk factors were then categorized based on results from the output decision node of the BN, including expected utility values for risk factors in the decision node. ERA was performed for the Gabric Dam using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method to compare results of BN modeling with those of conventional methods. Results determined that a BN-based hierarchical structure to ERA present acceptable and reasonable risk assessment prioritization in proposing suitable solutions to reduce environmental risks and can be used as a powerful decision support system for evaluating environmental risks.

Operational environmental assessment "Prestige" (a recent application of the MOCASSIM system).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitorino, J.; Rusu, E.; Almeida, S.; Monteiro, M.; Lermusiaux, P.; Haley, P.; Leslie, W.; Miller, P.; Coelho, E.; Signell, R.

2003-04-01

The sinking of tanker "Prestige", on the 19th November 2002, offshore the northwestern coasts of Spain and Portugal, has lead to a major environmental disaster. In this contribution we present several aspects of the operational environmental assessment "Prestige" conducted by Instituto Hidrografico (IH) in close colaboration with Instituto de Meteorologia (IM), the Harvard University, the Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) and the Saclancentre. The operational system MOCASSIM, which is presently being developed at IH, was used to provide forecasts of the evolution of oceanographic conditions offshore the NW Iberian coast. The system integrates a primitive equation model with data assimilation (the Harvard Ocean Prediction System - HOPS) and two wave models (the SWAN and WW3 models). The numerical domains used in both HOPS and SWAN models covered the area bewteen 40ºN and 46ºN and from 7ºW to 15ºW, and included the sinking area as well as the coastal regions more directly exposed to the oil spill. The models were run with atmospheric forcing conditions provided by the limited area model ALADIN, run operationally at IM, complemented with NOGAPS wind fields from the NATO METOC site of Rota. The HOPS simulations included assimilation of several data available for region. These data sets included CTD casts from the Northern Spanish shelf and slope (made available by University of Baleares) and SST data processed at the Remote Sensing Group of the PML. Results from both models were used in oil spill models and allowed an estimation of the impacts on the coastal areas.

Use of the Oslo-Potsdam Solution to test the effect of an environmental education model on tangible measures of environmental protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Short, Philip Craig

The fundamental goals of environmental education include the creation of an environmentally literate citizenry possessing the knowledge, skills, and motivation to objectively analyze environmental issues and engage in responsible behaviors leading to issue resolution and improved or maintained environmental quality. No existing research, however, has linked educational practices and environmental protection. In an original attempt to quantify the pedagogy - environmental protection relationship, both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to investigate local environmental records and environmental quality indices that reflected the results of student actions. The data were analyzed using an educational adaptation of the "Oslo-Potsdam Solution for International Environmental Regime Effectiveness." The new model, termed the Environmental Education Performance Indicator (EEPI), was developed and evaluated as a quantitative tool for testing and fairly comparing the efficacy of student-initiated environmental projects in terms of environmental quality measures. Five case studies were developed from descriptions of student actions and environmental impacts as revealed by surveys and interviews with environmental education teachers using the IEEIA (Investigating and Evaluating Environmental Issues and Actions) curriculum, former students, community members, and agency officials. Archival information was also used to triangulate the data. In addition to evaluating case study data on the basis of the EEPI model, an expert panel of evaluators consisting of professionals from environmental education, natural sciences, environmental policy, and environmental advocacy provided subjective assessments on the effectiveness of each case study. The results from this study suggest that environmental education interventions can equip and empower students to act on their own conclusions in a manner that leads to improved or maintained environmental conditions. The EEPI model shows promise in providing a more consistent, accurate and objective evaluation than is possible with subjective analysis. Recommendations are offered to guide further research on establishing the environmental education - environmental quality link. Ultimately, a research framework for determining which educational strategies are most effectively linked to demonstrable environmental quality outcomes will have utility in both educational and public policy arenas.

WORKSHOP ON APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS TO BIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELING FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Biologically-based pharmacokinetic models are being increasingly used in the risk assessment of environmental chemicals. These models are based on biological, mathematical, statistical and engineering principles. Their potential uses in risk assessment include extrapolation betwe...

Project Super Heart--Year One.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bellardini, Harry; And Others

1980-01-01

A model cardiovascular disease prevention program for young children is described. Components include physical examinations, health education (anatomy and physiology of the cardiovascular system), nutrition instruction, first aid techniques, role modeling, and environmental engineering. (JN)

Development of a pheromone elution rate physical model

Treesearch

M.E. Teske; H.W. Thistle; B.L. Strom; H. Zhu

2015-01-01

A first principle modeling approach has been applied to available data describing the elution of semiochemicals from pheromone dispensers. These data included field data for 27 products developed by several manufacturers, including homemade devices, as well as environmental chamber data collected on three semiochemical products. The goal of this effort was to...

ON THE USE OF NEXRAD STAGE IV DATA IN THE MULTIMEDIA MODELING OF POLLUTANT TRANSPORT

EPA Science Inventory

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is designing the Multimedia Integrated Modeling System (MIMS) to model the cycling of pollutants and nutrients between the atmosphere and the earth's surface, including water bodies and groundwater. Our ability to accurately model both ...

The application of system dynamics modelling to environmental health decision-making and policy - a scoping review.

PubMed

Currie, Danielle J; Smith, Carl; Jagals, Paul

2018-03-27

Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health. Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed. We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges appeared unique to the application of system dynamics within the context of environmental health problems, but rather to the use of system dynamics in general. This review reveals that while system dynamics modelling is increasingly being used to inform decision-making related to environmental health, applications are currently limited. Greater application of system dynamics within this context is needed before its benefits and limitations can be fully understood.

Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Grimm, Volker

2010-01-01

Ecological models are important for environmental decision support because they allow the consequences of alternative policies and management scenarios to be explored. However, current modeling practice is unsatisfactory. A literature review shows that the elements of good modeling practice have long been identified but are widely ignored. The reasons for this might include lack of involvement of decision makers, lack of incentives for modelers to follow good practice, and the use of inconsistent terminologies. As a strategy for the future, we propose a standard format for documenting models and their analyses: transparent and comprehensive ecological modeling (TRACE) documentation. This standard format will disclose all parts of the modeling process to scrutiny and make modeling itself more efficient and coherent.

Delivery of Forecasted Atmospheric Ozone and Dust for the New Mexico Environmental Public Health Tracking System - An Open Source Geospatial Solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudspeth, W. B.; Sanchez-Silva, R.; Cavner, J. A.

2010-12-01

New Mexico's Environmental Public Health Tracking System (EPHTS), funded by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN), aims to improve health awareness and services by linking health effects data with levels and frequency of environmental exposure. As a public health decision-support system, EPHTS systems include: state-of-the-art statistical analysis tools; geospatial visualization tools; data discovery, extraction, and delivery tools; and environmental/public health linkage information. As part of its mandate, EPHTS issues public health advisories and forecasts of environmental conditions that have consequences for human health. Through a NASA-funded partnership between the University of New Mexico and the University of Arizona, NASA Earth Science results are fused into two existing models (the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model) in order to improve forecasts of atmospheric dust, ozone, and aerosols. The results and products derived from the outputs of these models are made available to an Open Source mapping component of the New Mexico EPHTS. In particular, these products are integrated into a Django content management system using GeoDjango, GeoAlchemy, and other OGC-compliant geospatial libraries written in the Python and C++ programming languages. Capabilities of the resultant mapping system include indicator-based thematic mapping, data delivery, and analytical capabilities. DREAM and CMAQ outputs can be inspected, via REST calls, through temporal and spatial subsetting of the atmospheric concentration data across analytical units employed by the public health community. This paper describes details of the architecture and integration of NASA Earth Science into the EPHTS decision-support system.

Environmental assessment in health care organizations.

PubMed

Romero, Isabel; Carnero, María Carmen

2017-12-22

The aim of this research is to design a multi-criteria model for environmental assessment of health care organizations. This is a model which guarantees the objectivity of the results obtained, is easy to apply, and incorporates a series of criteria, and their corresponding descriptors, relevant to the internal environmental auditing processes of the hospital. Furthermore, judgments were given by three experts from the areas of health, the environment, and multi-criteria decision techniques. From the values assigned, geometric means were calculated, giving weightings for the criteria of the model. This innovative model is intended for application within a continuous improvement process. A practical case from a Spanish hospital is included at the end. Information contained in the sustainability report provided the data needed to apply the model. The example contains all the criteria previously defined in the model. The results obtained show that the best-satisfied criteria are those related to energy consumption, generation of hazardous waste, legal matters, environmental sensitivity of staff, patients and others, and the environmental management of suppliers. On the other hand, those areas returning poor results are control of atmospheric emissions, increase in consumption of renewable energies, and the logistics of waste produced. It is recommended that steps be taken to correct these deficiencies, thus leading to an acceptable increase in the sustainability of the hospital.

The effect of job and environmental factors on job satisfaction in automotive industries.

PubMed

Dawal, Siti Zawiah Md; Taha, Zahari

2006-01-01

A methodology was developed for diagnosing industrial work, which includes questionnaire, observation, measurements, data collection and statistical analysis. A survey was conducted to investigate the relationship between job satisfaction and factors that affect work design in 2 automotives manufacturing companies in Malaysia. A basic work design model was proposed. The aim of this model was to determine the factors that influence employees' perception towards their work. A set of multiple-choice questionnaires was developed and data was collected by interviewing employees at a production plant. The survey focused on job and environmental factors. The results supported the proposed model and showed that job and environmental factors were significantly related to job satisfaction. They highlighted the significant influence of age, work experience and marital status on job satisfaction. Further, environmental factors, especially the surroundings, context dependence and the building's function, also had a significant impact on job satisfaction.

10 CFR 503.34 - Inability to comply with applicable environmental requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... environmental compliance of the facility, including an analysis of its ability to meet applicable standards and... will be based solely on an analysis of the petitioner's capacity to physically achieve applicable... exemption. All such analysis must be based on accepted analytical techniques, such as air quality modeling...

10 CFR 503.34 - Inability to comply with applicable environmental requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... environmental compliance of the facility, including an analysis of its ability to meet applicable standards and... will be based solely on an analysis of the petitioner's capacity to physically achieve applicable... exemption. All such analysis must be based on accepted analytical techniques, such as air quality modeling...

What's wrong with my mouse cage? Methodological considerations for modeling lifestyle factors and gene-environment interactions in mice.

PubMed

Mo, Christina; Renoir, Thibault; Hannan, Anthony J

2016-05-30

The mechanistic understanding of lifestyle contributions to disease has been largely driven by work in laboratory rodent models using environmental interventions. These interventions show an array of methodologies and sometimes unclear collective conclusions, hampering clinical interpretations. Here we discuss environmental enrichment, exercise and stress interventions to illustrate how different protocols can affect the interpretations of environmental factors in disease. We use Huntington's disease (HD) as an example because its mouse models exhibit excellent validity and HD was the first genetic animal model in which environmental stimulation was found to be beneficial. We make a number of observations and recommendations. Firstly, environmental enrichment and voluntary exercise generally show benefits across laboratories and mouse models. However, the extent to which these environmental interventions have beneficial effects depends on parameters such as the structural complexity of the cage in the case of enrichment, the timing of the intervention and the nature of the control conditions. In particular, clinical interpretations should consider deprived control living conditions and the ethological relevance of the enrichment. Secondly, stress can have negative effects on the phenotype in mouse models of HD and other brain disorders. When modeling stress, the effects of more than one type of experimental stressor should be investigated due to the heterogeneity and complexity of stress responses. With stress in particular, but ideally in all studies, both sexes should be used and the randomized group sizes need to be sufficiently powered to detect any sex effects. Opportunities for clinical translation will be guided by the 'environmental construct validity' of the preclinical data, including the culmination of complementary protocols across multiple animal models. Environmental interventions in mouse models of HD provide illustrative examples of how valid preclinical studies can lead to conclusions relevant to clinical populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A General, Synthetic Model for Predicting Biodiversity Gradients from Environmental Geometry.

PubMed

Gross, Kevin; Snyder-Beattie, Andrew

2016-10-01

Latitudinal and elevational biodiversity gradients fascinate ecologists, and have inspired dozens of explanations. The geometry of the abiotic environment is sometimes thought to contribute to these gradients, yet evaluations of geometric explanations are limited by a fragmented understanding of the diversity patterns they predict. This article presents a mathematical model that synthesizes multiple pathways by which environmental geometry can drive diversity gradients. The model characterizes species ranges by their environmental niches and limits on range sizes and places those ranges onto the simplified geometries of a sphere or cone. The model predicts nuanced and realistic species-richness gradients, including latitudinal diversity gradients with tropical plateaus and mid-latitude inflection points and elevational diversity gradients with low-elevation diversity maxima. The model also illustrates the importance of a mid-environment effect that augments species richness at locations with intermediate environments. Model predictions match multiple empirical biodiversity gradients, depend on ecological traits in a testable fashion, and formally synthesize elements of several geometric models. Together, these results suggest that previous assessments of geometric hypotheses should be reconsidered and that environmental geometry may play a deeper role in driving biodiversity gradients than is currently appreciated.

Ecology and geography of human monkeypox case occurrences across Africa.

PubMed

Ellis, Christine K; Carroll, Darin S; Lash, Ryan R; Peterson, A Townsend; Damon, Inger K; Malekani, Jean; Formenty, Pierre

2012-04-01

As ecologic niche modeling (ENM) evolves as a tool in spatial epidemiology and public health, selection of the most appropriate and informative environmental data sets becomes increasingly important. Here, we build on a previous ENM analysis of the potential distribution of human monkeypox in Africa by refining georeferencing criteria and using more-diverse environmental data to identify environmental parameters contributing to monkeypox distributional ecology. Significant environmental variables include annual precipitation, several temperature-related variables, primary productivity, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and pH. The potential distribution identified with this set of variables was broader than that identified in previous analyses but does not include areas recently found to hold monkeypox in southern Sudan. Our results emphasize the importance of selecting the most appropriate and informative environmental data sets for ENM analyses in pathogen transmission mapping.

Gene-environment interactions and construct validity in preclinical models of psychiatric disorders.

PubMed

Burrows, Emma L; McOmish, Caitlin E; Hannan, Anthony J

2011-08-01

The contributions of genetic risk factors to susceptibility for brain disorders are often so closely intertwined with environmental factors that studying genes in isolation cannot provide the full picture of pathogenesis. With recent advances in our understanding of psychiatric genetics and environmental modifiers we are now in a position to develop more accurate animal models of psychiatric disorders which exemplify the complex interaction of genes and environment. Here, we consider some of the insights that have emerged from studying the relationship between defined genetic alterations and environmental factors in rodent models. A key issue in such animal models is the optimization of construct validity, at both genetic and environmental levels. Standard housing of laboratory mice and rats generally includes ad libitum food access and limited opportunity for physical exercise, leading to metabolic dysfunction under control conditions, and thus reducing validity of animal models with respect to clinical populations. A related issue, of specific relevance to neuroscientists, is that most standard-housed rodents have limited opportunity for sensory and cognitive stimulation, which in turn provides reduced incentive for complex motor activity. Decades of research using environmental enrichment has demonstrated beneficial effects on brain and behavior in both wild-type and genetically modified rodent models, relative to standard-housed littermate controls. One interpretation of such studies is that environmentally enriched animals more closely approximate average human levels of cognitive and sensorimotor stimulation, whereas the standard housing currently used in most laboratories models a more sedentary state of reduced mental and physical activity and abnormal stress levels. The use of such standard housing as a single environmental variable may limit the capacity for preclinical models to translate into successful clinical trials. Therefore, there is a need to optimize 'environmental construct validity' in animal models, while maintaining comparability between laboratories, so as to ensure optimal scientific and medical outcomes. Utilizing more sophisticated models to elucidate the relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors will allow for improved construct, face and predictive validity, thus facilitating the identification of novel therapeutic targets. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Working toward Healthy and Sustainable Diets: The "Double Pyramid Model" Developed by the Barilla Center for Food and Nutrition to Raise Awareness about the Environmental and Nutritional Impact of Foods.

PubMed

Ruini, Luca Fernando; Ciati, Roberto; Pratesi, Carlo Alberto; Marino, Massimo; Principato, Ludovica; Vannuzzi, Eleonora

2015-01-01

The Barilla Center for Food and Nutrition has produced an updated version of the traditional food pyramid based on the Mediterranean diet in order to assess the simultaneous impact that food has on human health and the environment. The Double Pyramid Model demonstrates how the foods recommended to be consumed most frequently are also those exerting less environmental impact, whereas the foods that should be consumed less frequently are those characterized by a higher environmental impact. The environmental impacts resulting from three different menus were compared. All menus were equally balanced and comparable in terms of nutrition, but they differed in relation to the presence of absence of animal flesh and animal products. The first dietary pattern (omnivorous) included both animal flesh and products; the second (lacto-ovo-vegetarian) included animal products (eggs and dairy) but no flesh; and the third (vegan) was solely plant-based. The results obtained suggest that a diet based on the principles of the Mediterranean diet, as suggested by the Double Pyramid, generates a lower environmental impact compared to diets that are heavily based on daily meat consumption.

Dynamic linear models using the Kalman filter for early detection and early warning of malaria outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkord, C. L.; Liu, Y.; DeVos, M.; Wimberly, M. C.

2015-12-01

Malaria early detection and early warning systems are important tools for public health decision makers in regions where malaria transmission is seasonal and varies from year to year with fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. Here we present a new data-driven dynamic linear model based on the Kalman filter with time-varying coefficients that are used to identify malaria outbreaks as they occur (early detection) and predict the location and timing of future outbreaks (early warning). We fit linear models of malaria incidence with trend and Fourier form seasonal components using three years of weekly malaria case data from 30 districts in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia. We identified past outbreaks by comparing the modeled prediction envelopes with observed case data. Preliminary results demonstrated the potential for improved accuracy and timeliness over commonly-used methods in which thresholds are based on simpler summary statistics of historical data. Other benefits of the dynamic linear modeling approach include robustness to missing data and the ability to fit models with relatively few years of training data. To predict future outbreaks, we started with the early detection model for each district and added a regression component based on satellite-derived environmental predictor variables including precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and land surface temperature (LST) and spectral indices from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We included lagged environmental predictors in the regression component of the model, with lags chosen based on cross-correlation of the one-step-ahead forecast errors from the first model. Our results suggest that predictions of future malaria outbreaks can be improved by incorporating lagged environmental predictors.

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, J. M.

2013-12-01

Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation of toxic substances. The capability of the Framework to address cumulative impacts will be demonstrated for freshwater ecosystem services and mountaintop mining.

Using remote sensing and machine learning for the spatial modelling of a bluetongue virus vector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van doninck, J.; Peters, J.; De Baets, B.; Ducheyne, E.; Verhoest, N. E. C.

2012-04-01

Bluetongue is a viral vector-borne disease transmitted between hosts, mostly cattle and small ruminants, by some species of Culicoides midges. Within the Mediterranean basin, C. imicola is the main vector of the bluetongue virus. The spatial distribution of this species is limited by a number of environmental factors, including temperature, soil properties and land cover. The identification of zones at risk of bluetongue outbreaks thus requires detailed information on these environmental factors, as well as appropriate epidemiological modelling techniques. We here give an overview of the environmental factors assumed to be constraining the spatial distribution of C. imicola, as identified in different studies. Subsequently, remote sensing products that can be used as proxies for these environmental constraints are presented. Remote sensing data are then used together with species occurrence data from the Spanish Bluetongue National Surveillance Programme to calibrate a supervised learning model, based on Random Forests, to model the probability of occurrence of the C. imicola midge. The model will then be applied for a pixel-based prediction over the Iberian peninsula using remote sensing products for habitat characterization.

Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data.

PubMed

Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

2018-06-01

Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction. Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models. Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood. The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate.

PubMed

Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A; Olden, Julian D; Smith, Scott S; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Piorkowski, Robert J; McPhedran, John

2008-06-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change.

Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Olden, Julian D.; Smith, Scott S.; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Piorkowski, Robert J.; Mcphedran, John

2008-01-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

European environmental research infrastructures are going for common 30 years strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asmi, Ari; Konjin, Jacco; Pursula, Antti

2014-05-01

Environmental Research infrastructures are facilities, resources, systems and related services that are used by research communities to conduct top-level research. Environmental research is addressing processes at very different time scales, and supporting research infrastructures must be designed as long-term facilities in order to meet the requirements of continuous environmental observation, measurement and analysis. This longevity makes the environmental research infrastructures ideal structures to support the long-term development in environmental sciences. ENVRI project is a collaborative action of the major European (ESFRI) Environmental Research Infrastructures working towards increased co-operation and interoperability between the infrastructures. One of the key products of the ENVRI project is to combine the long-term plans of the individual infrastructures towards a common strategy, describing the vision and planned actions. The envisaged vision for environmental research infrastructures toward 2030 is to support the holistic understanding of our planet and it's behavior. The development of a 'Standard Model of the Planet' is a common ambition, a challenge to define an environmental standard model; a framework of all interactions within the Earth System, from solid earth to near space. Indeed scientists feel challenged to contribute to a 'Standard Model of the Planet' with data, models, algorithms and discoveries. Understanding the Earth System as an interlinked system requires a systems approach. The Environmental Sciences are rapidly moving to become a one system-level science. Mainly since modern science, engineering and society are increasingly facing complex problems that can only be understood in the context of the full overall system. The strategy of the supporting collaborating research infrastructures is based on developing three key factors for the Environmental Sciences: the technological, the cultural and the human capital. The technological capital development concentrates on improving the capacities to measure, observe, preserve and compute. This requires staff, technologies, sensors, satellites, floats, software to integrate and to do analysis and modeling, including data storage, computing platforms and networks. The cultural capital development addresses issues such as open access to data, rules, licenses, citation agreements, IPR agreements, technologies for machine-machine interaction, workflows, metadata, and RI community on the policy level. Human capital actions are based on anticipated need of specialists, including data scientists and 'generalists' that oversee more than just their own discipline. Developing these, as interrelated services, should help the scientific community to enter innovative and large projects contributing to a 'Standard Model of the Planet'. To achieve the overall goal, ENVRI will publish a set of action items that contains intermediate aims, bigger and smaller steps to work towards the development of the 'Standard Model of the Planet' approach. This timeline of actions can used as reference and 'common denominator' in defining new projects and research programs. Either within the various environmental scientific disciplines or when cooperating among these disciplines or even when outreaching towards other disciplines like social sciences, physics/chemistry, medical/life sciences etc.

Biomarkers of environmental benzene exposure.

PubMed Central

Weisel, C; Yu, R; Roy, A; Georgopoulos, P

1996-01-01

Environmental exposures to benzene result in increases in body burden that are reflected in various biomarkers of exposure, including benzene in exhaled breath, benzene in blood and urinary trans-trans-muconic acid and S-phenylmercapturic acid. A review of the literature indicates that these biomarkers can be used to distinguish populations with different levels of exposure (such as smokers from nonsmokers and occupationally exposed from environmentally exposed populations) and to determine differences in metabolism. Biomarkers in humans have shown that the percentage of benzene metabolized by the ring-opening pathway is greater at environmental exposures than that at higher occupational exposures, a trend similar to that found in animal studies. This suggests that the dose-response curve is nonlinear; that potential different metabolic mechanisms exist at high and low doses; and that the validity of a linear extrapolation of adverse effects measured at high doses to a population exposed to lower, environmental levels of benzene is uncertain. Time-series measurements of the biomarker, exhaled breath, were used to evaluate a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. Biases were identified between the PBPK model predictions and experimental data that were adequately described using an empirical compartmental model. It is suggested that a mapping of the PBPK model to a compartmental model can be done to optimize the parameters in the PBPK model to provide a future framework for developing a population physiologically based pharmacokinetic model. PMID:9118884

Formulation of advanced consumables management models: Environmental control and electrical power system performance models requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daly, J. K.; Torian, J. G.

1979-01-01

Software design specifications for developing environmental control and life support system (ECLSS) and electrical power system (EPS) programs into interactive computer programs are presented. Specifications for the ECLSS program are at the detail design level with respect to modification of an existing batch mode program. The FORTRAN environmental analysis routines (FEAR) are the subject batch mode program. The characteristics of the FEAR program are included for use in modifying batch mode programs to form interactive programs. The EPS program specifications are at the preliminary design level. Emphasis is on top-down structuring in the development of an interactive program.

Stressor-Response Models Relating Nutrient Enrichment to Algal Communities in Pacific Northwest Streams and Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobota, D. J.; Hubler, S.; Paul, M. J.; Labiosa, R.

2015-12-01

Excessive algal growth in streams and rivers from nutrient enrichment can cause costly human health and environmental problems. As part of the US Environmental Protection Agency's Nutrient Scientific Technical Exchange Partnership and Support (N-STEPS) program, we have been developing stressor-response (S-R) models relating nutrients to attached algal (periphyton) communities to help prioritize monitoring for water quality impairments in Oregon (Pacific Northwest, USA) streams and rivers. Existing data from the state and neighboring states were compiled and standardized from the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, US Environmental Protection Agency, and the US Geological Survey. To develop S-R models, algal community and biomass metrics were compared with nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentration data, including total, dissolved, and inorganic forms of these nutrients. In total, 928 paired algal-nutrient samples were compiled from the 8 Level-III Ecoregions occurring in Oregon. Relationships between algal biomass metrics and nutrient concentrations were weak, with only ash-free dry mass and standing stock of chlorophyll a showing slight positive relationships across gradients of total N and soluble reactive P concentrations, respectively. In contrast, metrics describing algal community composition, including percent diatoms and abundance of nutrient-sensitive species, showed very strong nonlinear relationships with total N or P concentrations. This suggests that data describing algal community composition can help identify specific nutrient stressors across environmentally-diverse streams and rivers in the Pacific Northwest. Future analyses will examine if nutrient-algal S-R models vary across different hydrological, physiographical, and ecological settings in the region.

Model approaches for estimating the influence of time-varying socio-environmental factors on macroparasite transmission in two endemic regions

PubMed Central

ZHONG, BO; CARLTON, ELIZABETH J.; SPEAR, ROBERT C.

2009-01-01

The environmental determinants of vector- and host-borne diseases include time-varying components that modify key transmission parameters, resulting in transient couplings between environmental phenomena and transmission processes. While some time-varying drivers are periodic in nature, some are aperiodic, such as those that involve episodic events or complex patterns of human behavior. Understanding these couplings can allow for prediction of periods of peak infection risk, and ultimately presents opportunities for optimizing intervention selection and timing. Schistosome macroparasites of humans exhibit multiple free-living stages as well as intermediate hosts, and are thus model organisms for illustrating the influence of environmental forcing on transmission. Time-varying environmental factors, termed gating functions, for schistosomes include larval response to temperature and rainfall, seasonal water contact patterns and snail population dynamics driven by weather variables. The biological bases for these modifiers are reviewed, and their values are estimated and incorporated into a transmission model that simulates a multi-year period in two schistosomiasis endemic regions. Modeling results combined with a scale dependent correlation analysis indicate the end effect of these site-specific gating functions is to strongly govern worm burden in these communities, in a manner particularly sensitive to the hydrological differences between sites. Two classes of gating functions were identified, those that act in concert to modify human infection (and determine worm acquisition late in the season), and those that act on snail infection (and determine early season worm acquisition). The importance of these factors for control programs and surveillance is discussed. PMID:20454601

Rule-Based Models of the Interplay between Genetic and Environmental Factors in Childhood Allergy

PubMed Central

Melén, Erik; Bergström, Anna; Torabi Moghadam, Behrooz; Pulkkinen, Ville; Acevedo, Nathalie; Orsmark Pietras, Christina; Ege, Markus; Braun-Fahrländer, Charlotte; Riedler, Josef; Doekes, Gert; Kabesch, Michael; van Hage, Marianne; Kere, Juha; Scheynius, Annika; Söderhäll, Cilla; Pershagen, Göran; Komorowski, Jan

2013-01-01

Both genetic and environmental factors are important for the development of allergic diseases. However, a detailed understanding of how such factors act together is lacking. To elucidate the interplay between genetic and environmental factors in allergic diseases, we used a novel bioinformatics approach that combines feature selection and machine learning. In two materials, PARSIFAL (a European cross-sectional study of 3113 children) and BAMSE (a Swedish birth-cohort including 2033 children), genetic variants as well as environmental and lifestyle factors were evaluated for their contribution to allergic phenotypes. Monte Carlo feature selection and rule based models were used to identify and rank rules describing how combinations of genetic and environmental factors affect the risk of allergic diseases. Novel interactions between genes were suggested and replicated, such as between ORMDL3 and RORA, where certain genotype combinations gave odds ratios for current asthma of 2.1 (95% CI 1.2-3.6) and 3.2 (95% CI 2.0-5.0) in the BAMSE and PARSIFAL children, respectively. Several combinations of environmental factors appeared to be important for the development of allergic disease in children. For example, use of baby formula and antibiotics early in life was associated with an odds ratio of 7.4 (95% CI 4.5-12.0) of developing asthma. Furthermore, genetic variants together with environmental factors seemed to play a role for allergic diseases, such as the use of antibiotics early in life and COL29A1 variants for asthma, and farm living and NPSR1 variants for allergic eczema. Overall, combinations of environmental and life style factors appeared more frequently in the models than combinations solely involving genes. In conclusion, a new bioinformatics approach is described for analyzing complex data, including extensive genetic and environmental information. Interactions identified with this approach could provide useful hints for further in-depth studies of etiological mechanisms and may also strengthen the basis for risk assessment and prevention. PMID:24260339

Ecological Footprint and Ecosystem Services Models: A Comparative Analysis of Environmental Carrying Capacity Calculation Approach in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subekti, R. M.; Suroso, D. S. A.

2018-05-01

Calculation of environmental carrying capacity can be done by various approaches. The selection of an appropriate approach determines the success of determining and applying environmental carrying capacity. This study aimed to compare the ecological footprint approach and the ecosystem services approach for calculating environmental carrying capacity. It attempts to describe two relatively new models that require further explanation if they are used to calculate environmental carrying capacity. In their application, attention needs to be paid to their respective advantages and weaknesses. Conceptually, the ecological footprint model is more complete than the ecosystem services model, because it describes the supply and demand of resources, including supportive and assimilative capacity of the environment, and measurable output through a resource consumption threshold. However, this model also has weaknesses, such as not considering technological change and resources beneath the earth’s surface, as well as the requirement to provide trade data between regions for calculating at provincial and district level. The ecosystem services model also has advantages, such as being in line with strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of ecosystem services, using spatial analysis based on ecoregions, and a draft regulation on calculation guidelines formulated by the government. Meanwhile, weaknesses are that it only describes the supply of resources, that the assessment of the different types of ecosystem services by experts tends to be subjective, and that the output of the calculation lacks a resource consumption threshold.

Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and Application

EPA Science Inventory

The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (...

They fight because we let them! Applying a situational crime prevention model to barroom violence.

PubMed

Graham, Kathryn

2009-03-01

This paper draws on situational crime prevention and social interactionist theories to develop a theoretical model for preventing aggression and injury in licensed drinking establishments. The model includes six components: (i) the presence of willing participants; (ii) the role of guardians, handlers and place managers; (iii) environmental deterrents of aggression; (iv) environmental precipitators of aggression; (v) theories regarding the effects of alcohol that contribute to increased risk of aggression; and (vi) social interaction theory relevant to the process of aggressive incidents in drinking establishments. The model provides a basis for developing a range of strategies to reduce barroom aggression that includes but is not restricted to addressing the role of alcohol. The paper discusses how these strategies can be developed and implemented through interventions, programs, policies or regulations at the level of the drinking establishment, the community level or the state/national level.

Time series models of environmental exposures: Good predictions or good understanding.

PubMed

Barnett, Adrian G; Stephen, Dimity; Huang, Cunrui; Wolkewitz, Martin

2017-04-01

Time series data are popular in environmental epidemiology as they make use of the natural experiment of how changes in exposure over time might impact on disease. Many published time series papers have used parameter-heavy models that fully explained the second order patterns in disease to give residuals that have no short-term autocorrelation or seasonality. This is often achieved by including predictors of past disease counts (autoregression) or seasonal splines with many degrees of freedom. These approaches give great residuals, but add little to our understanding of cause and effect. We argue that modelling approaches should rely more on good epidemiology and less on statistical tests. This includes thinking about causal pathways, making potential confounders explicit, fitting a limited number of models, and not over-fitting at the cost of under-estimating the true association between exposure and disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mapping habitat for multiple species in the Desert Southwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Richard D.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Vandergast, Amy G.; Hathaway, Stacie A.; Wood, Dustin A.; Barr, Kelly R.; Fisher, Robert N.

2014-01-01

Many utility scale renewable energy projects are currently proposed across the Mojave Ecoregion. Agencies that manage biological resources throughout this region need to understand the potential impacts of these renewable energy projects and their associated infrastructure (for example, transmission corridors, substations, access roads, etc.) on species movement, genetic exchange among populations, and species’ abilities to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Understanding these factors will help managers’ select appropriate project sites and possibly mitigate for anticipated effects of management activities. We used species distribution models to map habitat for 15 species across the Mojave Ecoregion to aid regional land-use management planning. Models were developed using a common 1 × 1 kilometer resolution with maximum entropy and generalized additive models. Occurrence data were compiled from multiple sources, including VertNet (http://vertnet.org/), HerpNET (http://www.herpnet.org), and MaNIS (http://manisnet.org), as well as from internal U.S. Geological Survey databases and other biologists. Background data included 20 environmental covariates representing terrain, vegetation, and climate covariates. This report summarizes these environmental covariates and species distribution models used to predict habitat for the 15 species across the Mojave Ecoregion.

Environmental correlates to behavioral health outcomes in Alzheimer's special care units.

PubMed

Zeisel, John; Silverstein, Nina M; Hyde, Joan; Levkoff, Sue; Lawton, M Powell; Holmes, William

2003-10-01

We systematically measured the associations between environmental design features of nursing home special care units and the incidence of aggression, agitation, social withdrawal, depression, and psychotic problems among persons living there who have Alzheimer's disease or a related disorder. We developed and tested a model of critical health-related environmental design features in settings for people with Alzheimer's disease. We used hierarchical linear modeling statistical techniques to assess associations between seven environmental design features and behavioral health measures for 427 residents in 15 special care units. Behavioral health measures included the Cohen-Mansfield physical agitation, verbal agitation, and aggressive behavior scales, the Multidimensional Observation Scale for Elderly Subjects depression and social withdrawal scales, and BEHAVE-AD (psychotic symptom list) misidentification and paranoid delusions scales. Statistical controls were included for the influence of, among others, cognitive status, need for assistance with activities of daily living, prescription drug use, amount of Alzheimer's staff training, and staff-to-resident ratio. Although hierarchical linear modeling minimizes the risk of Type II-false positive-error, this exploratory study also pays special attention to avoiding Type I error-the failure to recognize possible relationships between behavioral health characteristics and independent variables. We found associations between each behavioral health measure and particular environmental design features, as well as between behavioral health measures and both resident and nonenvironmental facility variables. This research demonstrates the potential that environment has for contributing to the improvement of Alzheimer's symptoms. A balanced combination of pharmacologic, behavioral, and environmental approaches is likely to be most effective in improving the health, behavior, and quality of life of people with Alzheimer's disease.

Genetic and environmental influences on dimensional representations of DSM-IV cluster C personality disorders: a population-based multivariate twin study.

PubMed

Reichborn-Kjennerud, Ted; Czajkowski, Nikolai; Neale, Michael C; Ørstavik, Ragnhild E; Torgersen, Svenn; Tambs, Kristian; Røysamb, Espen; Harris, Jennifer R; Kendler, Kenneth S

2007-05-01

The DSM-IV cluster C Axis II disorders include avoidant (AVPD), dependent (DEPD) and obsessive-compulsive (OCPD) personality disorders. We aimed to estimate the genetic and environmental influences on dimensional representations of these disorders and examine the validity of the cluster C construct by determining to what extent common familial factors influence the individual PDs. PDs were assessed using the Structured Interview for DSM-IV Personality (SIDP-IV) in a sample of 1386 young adult twin pairs from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health Twin Panel (NIPHTP). A single-factor independent pathway multivariate model was applied to the number of endorsed criteria for the three cluster C disorders, using the statistical modeling program Mx. The best-fitting model included genetic and unique environmental factors only, and equated parameters for males and females. Heritability ranged from 27% to 35%. The proportion of genetic variance explained by a common factor was 83, 48 and 15% respectively for AVPD, DEPD and OCPD. Common genetic and environmental factors accounted for 54% and 64% respectively of the variance in AVPD and DEPD but only 11% of the variance in OCPD. Cluster C PDs are moderately heritable. No evidence was found for shared environmental or sex effects. Common genetic and individual environmental factors account for a substantial proportion of the variance in AVPD and DEPD. However, OCPD appears to be largely etiologically distinct from the other two PDs. The results do not support the validity of the DSM-IV cluster C construct in its present form.

Integrating Unified Gravity Wave Physics into the NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpert, J. C.; Yudin, V.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Akmaev, R. A.

2017-12-01

The Unified Gravity Wave Physics (UGWP) project for the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) is a NOAA collaborative effort between the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Environemntal Modeling Center (EMC) and the University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CU-CIRES) to support upgrades and improvements of GW dynamics (resolved scales) and physics (sub-grid scales) in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)†. As envisioned the global climate, weather and space weather models of NEMS will substantially improve their predictions and forecasts with the resolution-sensitive (scale-aware) formulations planned under the UGWP framework for both orographic and non-stationary waves. In particular, the planned improvements for the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of NEMS are: calibration of model physics for higher vertical and horizontal resolution and an extended vertical range of simulations, upgrades to GW schemes, including the turbulent heating and eddy mixing due to wave dissipation and breaking, and representation of the internally-generated QBO. The main priority of the UGWP project is unified parameterization of orographic and non-orographic GW effects including momentum deposition in the middle atmosphere and turbulent heating and eddies due to wave dissipation and breaking. The latter effects are not currently represented in NOAA atmosphere models. The team has tested and evaluated four candidate GW solvers integrating the selected GW schemes into the NGGPS model. Our current work and planned activity is to implement the UGWP schemes in the first available GFS/FV3 (open FV3) configuration including adapted GFDL modification for sub-grid orography in GFS. Initial global model results will be shown for the operational and research GFS configuration for spectral and FV3 dynamical cores. †http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=NEMS

Multimedia modeling of engineered nanoparticles with SimpleBox4nano: model definition and evaluation.

PubMed

Meesters, Johannes A J; Koelmans, Albert A; Quik, Joris T K; Hendriks, A Jan; van de Meent, Dik

2014-05-20

Screening level models for environmental assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENP) are not generally available. Here, we present SimpleBox4Nano (SB4N) as the first model of this type, assess its validity, and evaluate it by comparisons with a known material flow model. SB4N expresses ENP transport and concentrations in and across air, rain, surface waters, soil, and sediment, accounting for nanospecific processes such as aggregation, attachment, and dissolution. The model solves simultaneous mass balance equations (MBE) using simple matrix algebra. The MBEs link all concentrations and transfer processes using first-order rate constants for all processes known to be relevant for ENPs. The first-order rate constants are obtained from the literature. The output of SB4N is mass concentrations of ENPs as free dispersive species, heteroaggregates with natural colloids, and larger natural particles in each compartment in time and at steady state. Known scenario studies for Switzerland were used to demonstrate the impact of the transport processes included in SB4N on the prediction of environmental concentrations. We argue that SB4N-predicted environmental concentrations are useful as background concentrations in environmental risk assessment.

The 2009 National Environmental Public Health Conference: one model for planning green and healthy conferences.

PubMed

Ruckart, Perri Zeitz; Moore, Cory; Burgin, Deborah; Byrne, Maggie Kelly

2011-01-01

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Environmental Health and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry committed to making their 2009 National Environmental Public Health Conference a model for green and healthy conferences. The conference included increased opportunities for physical activity, both as part of conference events and for transportation to the conference. In addition, conference meals were healthy and sustainably sourced. The conference also implemented intuitive, accessible recycling; online scheduling and evaluation to minimize hard-copy materials; and the purchase of carbon offsets to reduce the unwanted environmental impact of the conference. Public health professionals have an opportunity and obligation to support healthy behaviors at their events and to serve as leaders in this area. Facilitating healthy and sustainable choices is in alignment with goals for both public health and broader social issues-such as environmental quality-that have a direct bearing on public health.

Helping Students Develop a 21st Century Environmental & Social Ethic.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peters, Richard Oakes

This document presents an interdisciplinary curriculum in ecology and social studies for the K-12 grade level. Topics include: (1) A Model Strategy; (2) Participatory Citizenship; (3) Graphic Studies; (4) Globescope Matrices; (5) Nurturing an Environmental and Social Ethic; (6) Unit Outline; and (7) Lesson Design Format. Ecology lesson plans are…

Greenwich Township Environmental Analysis: A Field Study 1972-74.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bahorik, J. Wesley, Ed.

This project attempted to develop a baseline on which the community could assess its own local environment. The objectives of the study include developing a list of references and resources, developing an assessment model for community use, composing an environmental quality index, determining areas to be protected and persuading decision-making…

Modeling mixtures of environmental estrogens found in U.S. surface waters with an in vitro estrogen mediated transcriptionai activation assay (T47D-KBluc).

EPA Science Inventory

There is growing concern of exposure to fish, wildlife, and humans to water sources contaminated with estrogens and the potential impact on reproductive health. Environmental estrogens can come from various sources including concentrated animal feedlot operations (CAFO), municipa...

Modelling defined mixtures of environmental oestrogens found in domestic animal and sewage treatment effluents using an in vitro oestrogen-mediated transcriptional activation assay (T47D-KBluc

EPA Science Inventory

There is growing concern that exposure of fish, wildlife, and humans to water sources contaminated with estrogens could potentially impact reproductive health. Environmental estrogens can come from various sources including concentrated animal feedlot operations (CAFO), municipal...

Designing a Citizen Involvement Program: A Guidebook for Involving Citizens in the Resolution of Environmental Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howell, Robert E.; And Others

A model and supportive materials are presented for design and implementation of a program for involving citizens in decision-making concerning significant environmental issues. Chapter topics include: why citizen involvement? (potential benefits of the process); theoretical basis for citizen involvement (three fundamental perspectives underlying…

The perception of the relationship between environment and health according to data from Italian Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System (PASSI).

PubMed

Sampaolo, Letizia; Tommaso, Giulia; Gherardi, Bianca; Carrozzi, Giuliano; Freni Sterrantino, Anna; Ottone, Marta; Goldoni, Carlo Alberto; Bertozzi, Nicoletta; Scaringi, Meri; Bolognesi, Lara; Masocco, Maria; Salmaso, Stefania; Lauriola, Paolo

2017-01-01

"OBJECTIVES: to identify groups of people in relation to the perception of environmental risk and to assess the main characteristics using data collected in the environmental module of the surveillance network Italian Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (PASSI). perceptive profiles were identified using a latent class analysis; later they were included as outcome in multinomial logistic regression models to assess the association between environmental risk perception and demographic, health, socio-economic and behavioural variables. the latent class analysis allowed to split the sample in "worried", "indifferent", and "positive" people. The multinomial logistic regression model showed that the "worried" profile typically includes people of Italian nationality, living in highly urbanized areas, with a high level of education, and with economic difficulties; they pay special attention to their own health and fitness, but they have a negative perception of their own psychophysical state. the application of advanced statistical analysis enable to appraise PASSI data in order to characterize the perception of environmental risk, making the planning of interventions related to risk communication possible. ".

Species sorting and patch dynamics in harlequin metacommunities affect the relative importance of environment and space.

PubMed

Leibold, Mathew A; Loeuille, Nicolas

2015-12-01

Metacommunity theory indicates that variation in local community structure can be partitioned into components including those related to local environmental conditions vs. spatial effects and that these can be quantified using statistical methods based on variation partitioning. It has been hypothesized that joint associations of community composition with environment and space could be due to patch dynamics involving colonization-extinction processes in environmentally heterogeneous landscapes but this has yet to be theoretically shown. We develop a two-patch, type-two, species competition model in such a "harlequin" landscape (where different patches have different environments) to evaluate how composition is related to environmental and spatial effects as a function of background extinction rate. Using spatially implicit analytical models, we find that the environmental association of community composition declines with extinction rate as expected. Using spatially explicit simulation models, we further find that there is an increase in the spatial structure with extinction due to spatial patterning into clusters that are not related to environmental conditions but that this increase is limited. Natural metacommunities often show both environment and spatial determination even under conditions of relatively high isolation and these could be more easily explained by our model than alternative metacommunity models.

Marine vessels as substitutes for heavy-duty trucks in Great Lakes freight transportation.

PubMed

Comer, Bryan; Corbett, James J; Hawker, J Scott; Korfmacher, Karl; Lee, Earl E; Prokop, Chris; Winebrake, James J

2010-07-01

This paper applies a geospatial network optimization model to explore environmental, economic, and time-of-delivery tradeoffs associated with the application of marine vessels as substitutes for heavy-duty trucks operating in the Great Lakes region. The geospatial model integrates U.S. and Canadian highway, rail, and waterway networks to create an intermodal network and characterizes this network using temporal, economic, and environmental attributes (including emissions of carbon dioxide, particulate matter, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, volatile organic compounds, and nitrogen oxides). A case study evaluates tradeoffs associated with containerized traffic flow in the Great Lakes region, demonstrating how choice of freight mode affects the environmental performance of movement of goods. These results suggest opportunities to improve the environmental performance of freight transport through infrastructure development, technology implementation, and economic incentives.

Ecological genomics meets community-level modelling of biodiversity: mapping the genomic landscape of current and future environmental adaptation.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Keller, Stephen R

2015-01-01

Local adaptation is a central feature of most species occupying spatially heterogeneous environments, and may factor critically in responses to environmental change. However, most efforts to model the response of species to climate change ignore intraspecific variation due to local adaptation. Here, we present a new perspective on spatial modelling of organism-environment relationships that combines genomic data and community-level modelling to develop scenarios regarding the geographic distribution of genomic variation in response to environmental change. Rather than modelling species within communities, we use these techniques to model large numbers of loci across genomes. Using balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera) as a case study, we demonstrate how our framework can accommodate nonlinear responses of loci to environmental gradients. We identify a threshold response to temperature in the circadian clock gene GIGANTEA-5 (GI5), suggesting that this gene has experienced strong local adaptation to temperature. We also demonstrate how these methods can map ecological adaptation from genomic data, including the identification of predicted differences in the genetic composition of populations under current and future climates. Community-level modelling of genomic variation represents an important advance in landscape genomics and spatial modelling of biodiversity that moves beyond species-level assessments of climate change vulnerability. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

PubMed

Owen-Smith, Norman

2011-07-01

1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and (iv) capacity to accommodate environmental variation in space as well as through time. Biomass dynamics provide a common currency linking behavioural, population and food web ecology. 4. Metaphysiological biomass loss accounting provides a conceptual framework more conducive for projecting and interpreting the population consequences of climatic shifts and human transformations of habitats than standard modelling approaches. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Zebrafish as a Vertebrate Model System to Evaluate Effects of Environmental Toxicants on Cardiac Development and Function

PubMed Central

Sarmah, Swapnalee; Marrs, James A.

2016-01-01

Environmental pollution is a serious problem of the modern world that possesses a major threat to public health. Exposure to environmental pollutants during embryonic development is particularly risky. Although many pollutants have been verified as potential toxicants, there are new chemicals in the environment that need assessment. Heart development is an extremely sensitive process, which can be affected by environmentally toxic molecule exposure during embryonic development. Congenital heart defects are the most common life-threatening global health problems, and the etiology is mostly unknown. The zebrafish has emerged as an invaluable model to examine substance toxicity on vertebrate development, particularly on cardiac development. The zebrafish offers numerous advantages for toxicology research not found in other model systems. Many laboratories have used the zebrafish to study the effects of widespread chemicals in the environment on heart development, including pesticides, nanoparticles, and various organic pollutants. Here, we review the uses of the zebrafish in examining effects of exposure to external molecules during embryonic development in causing cardiac defects, including chemicals ubiquitous in the environment and illicit drugs. Known or potential mechanisms of toxicity and how zebrafish research can be used to provide mechanistic understanding of cardiac defects are discussed. PMID:27999267

Inventory of environmental impact models related to energy technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Owen, P.T.; Dailey, N.S.; Johnson, C.A.

The purpose of this inventory is to identify and collect data on computer simulations and computational models related to the environmental effects of energy source development, energy conversion, or energy utilization. Information for 33 data fields was sought for each model reported. All of the information which could be obtained within the time alloted for completion of the project is presented for each model listed. Efforts will be continued toward acquiring the needed information. Readers who are interested in these particular models are invited to contact ESIC for assistance in locating them. In addition to the standard bibliographic information, othermore » data fields of interest to modelers, such as computer hardware and software requirements, algorithms, applications, and existing model validation information, are included. Indexes are provided for contact person, acronym, keyword, and title. The models are grouped into the following categories: atmospheric transport, air quality, aquatic transport, terrestrial food chains, soil transport, aquatic food chains, water quality, dosimetry, and human effects, animal effects, plant effects, and generalized environmental transport. Within these categories, the models are arranged alphabetically by last name of the contact person.« less

Propagule pressure and stream characteristics influence introgression: Cutthroat and rainbow trout in British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennett, S.N.; Olson, J.R.; Kershner, J.L.; Corbett, P.

2010-01-01

Hybridization and introgression between introduced and native salmonids threaten the continued persistence of many inland cutthroat trout species. Environmental models have been developed to predict the spread of introgression, but few studies have assessed the role of propagule pressure. We used an extensive set of fish stocking records and geographic information system (GIS) data to produce a spatially explicit index of potential propagule pressure exerted by introduced rainbow trout in the Upper Kootenay River, British Columbia, Canada. We then used logistic regression and the information-theoretic approach to test the ability of a set of environmental and spatial variables to predict the level of introgression between native westslope cutthroat trout and introduced rainbow trout. Introgression was assessed using between four and seven co-dominant, diagnostic nuclear markers at 45 sites in 31 different streams. The best model for predicting introgression included our GIS propagule pressure index and an environmental variable that accounted for the biogeoclimatic zone of the site (r2 = 0.62). This model was 1.4 times more likely to explain introgression than the next-best model, which consisted of only the propagule pressure index variable. We created a composite model based on the model-averaged results of the seven top models that included environmental, spatial, and propagule pressure variables. The propagule pressure index had the highest importance weight (0.995) of all variables tested and was negatively related to sites with no introgression. This study used an index of propagule pressure and demonstrated that propagule pressure had the greatest influence on the level of introgression between a native and introduced trout in a human-induced hybrid zone. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeling of rolling element bearing mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhill, L. M.

1991-01-01

Roller element bearings provide the primary mechanical interface between rotating and nonrotating components in the high performance turbomachinery of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). Knowledge of bearing behavior under various loading and environmental conditions is essential to predicting and understanding the overall behavior of turbopumps, including rotordynamic stability, critical speeds and bearing life. The objective is to develop mathematical models and computer programs to describe the mechanical behavior of ball and cylinder roller bearings under the loading and environmental conditions encountered in the SSME and future high performance rocket engines. This includes characteristics such as nonlinear load/motion relationships, stiffness and damping, rolling element loads for life prediction, and roller and cage stability.

Plant growth modeling at the JSC variable pressure growth chamber - An application of experimental design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Adam M.; Edeen, Marybeth; Sirko, Robert J.

1992-01-01

This paper describes the approach and results of an effort to characterize plant growth under various environmental conditions at the Johnson Space Center variable pressure growth chamber. Using a field of applied mathematics and statistics known as design of experiments (DOE), we developed a test plan for varying environmental parameters during a lettuce growth experiment. The test plan was developed using a Box-Behnken approach to DOE. As a result of the experimental runs, we have developed empirical models of both the transpiration process and carbon dioxide assimilation for Waldman's Green lettuce over specified ranges of environmental parameters including carbon dioxide concentration, light intensity, dew-point temperature, and air velocity. This model also predicts transpiration and carbon dioxide assimilation for different ages of the plant canopy.

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.2

EPA Science Inventory

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Pr...

Evaluation of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model Version 5.2

EPA Science Inventory

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Pr...

Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems

Treesearch

Clinton S. Wright

2013-01-01

Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....

Beyond positivist ecology: toward an integrated ecological ethics.

PubMed

Norton, Bryan G

2008-12-01

A post-positivist understanding of ecological science and the call for an "ecological ethic" indicate the need for a radically new approach to evaluating environmental change. The positivist view of science cannot capture the essence of environmental sciences because the recent work of "reflexive" ecological modelers shows that this requires a reconceptualization of the way in which values and ecological models interact in scientific process. Reflexive modelers are ecological modelers who believe it is appropriate for ecologists to examine the motives for their choices in developing models; this self-reflexive approach opens the door to a new way of integrating values into public discourse and to a more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change. This reflexive building of ecological models is introduced through the transformative simile of Aldo Leopold, which shows that learning to "think like a mountain" involves a shift in both ecological modeling and in values and responsibility. An adequate, interdisciplinary approach to ecological valuation, requires a re-framing of the evaluation questions in entirely new ways, i.e., a review of the current status of interdisciplinary value theory with respect to ecological values reveals that neither of the widely accepted theories of environmental value-neither economic utilitarianism nor intrinsic value theory (environmental ethics)-provides a foundation for an ecologically sensitive evaluation process. Thus, a new, ecologically sensitive, and more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change would include an examination of the metaphors that motivate the models used to describe environmental change.

Interactive Higher Education Instruction to Advance STEM Instruction in the Environmental Sciences - the Brownfield Action Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liddicoat, J. C.; Bower, P.

2015-12-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that presently there are over half a million brownfields in the United States, but this number only includes sites for which an Environmental Site Assessment has been conducted. The actual number of brownfields is certainly in the millions and constitutes one of the major environmental issues confronting all communities today. Taught in part or entirely online for more than 15 years in environmental science, engineering, and hydrology courses at over a dozen colleges, universities, and high schools in the United States, Brownfield Action (BA) is an interactive, web-based simulation that combines scientific expertise, constructivist education philosophy, and multimedia to advance the teaching of environmental science (Bower et al., 2011, 2014; Liddicoat and Bower, 2015). In the online simulation and classroom, students form geotechnical consulting companies with a peer chosen at random to solve a problem in environmental forensics. The BA model contains interdisciplinary scientific and social information that are integrated within a digital learning environment that encourages students to construct their knowledge as they learn by doing. As such, the approach improves the depth and coherence of students understanding of the course material. Like real-world environmental consultants and professionals, students are required to develop and apply expertise from a wide range of fields, including environmental science and engineering as well as journalism, medicine, public health, law, civics, economics, and business management. The overall objective is for students to gain an unprecedented appreciation of the complexity, ambiguity, and risk involved in any environmental issue, and to acquire STEM knowledge that can be used constructively when confronted with such an issue.

Chemistry and photochemistry of low-volatility organic chemicals on environmental surfaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, G.C.; Hebert, V.R.; Zepp, R.G.

Hydrophobic organic xenobiotics such as polychlorinated dibenzodioxins and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons have strong tendencies to sorb on environmental surfaces. This paper summarizes a workshop in which scientists and modelers assembled to discuss nonbiological processes that affect sorption to soil or sediment surfaces and on atmospheric particles. The 20 scientists discussed a variety of topics with a major emphasis on the fate of chlorinated dioxins. The topics include transformation processes, mobility of organic pollutants, fate of organics, and evaluative fate models.

Impact resistance of fiber composites - Energy-absorbing mechanisms and environmental effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.; Sinclair, J. H.

1985-01-01

Energy absorbing mechanisms were identified by several approaches. The energy absorbing mechanisms considered are those in unidirectional composite beams subjected to impact. The approaches used include: mechanic models, statistical models, transient finite element analysis, and simple beam theory. Predicted results are correlated with experimental data from Charpy impact tests. The environmental effects on impact resistance are evaluated. Working definitions for energy absorbing and energy releasing mechanisms are proposed and a dynamic fracture progression is outlined. Possible generalizations to angle-plied laminates are described.

Impact resistance of fiber composites: Energy absorbing mechanisms and environmental effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.; Sinclair, J. H.

1983-01-01

Energy absorbing mechanisms were identified by several approaches. The energy absorbing mechanisms considered are those in unidirectional composite beams subjected to impact. The approaches used include: mechanic models, statistical models, transient finite element analysis, and simple beam theory. Predicted results are correlated with experimental data from Charpy impact tests. The environmental effects on impact resistance are evaluated. Working definitions for energy absorbing and energy releasing mechanisms are proposed and a dynamic fracture progression is outlined. Possible generalizations to angle-plied laminates are described.

Omics of the marine medaka (Oryzias melastigma) and its relevance to marine environmental research.

PubMed

Kim, Bo-Mi; Kim, Jaebum; Choi, Ik-Young; Raisuddin, Sheikh; Au, Doris W T; Leung, Kenneth M Y; Wu, Rudolf S S; Rhee, Jae-Sung; Lee, Jae-Seong

2016-02-01

In recent years, the marine medaka (Oryzias melastigma), also known as the Indian medaka or brackish medaka, has been recognized as a model fish species for ecotoxicology and environmental research in the Asian region. O. melastigma has several promising features for research, which include a short generation period (3-4 months), daily spawning, small size (3-4 cm), transparent embryos, sexual dimorphism, and ease of mass culture in the laboratory. There have been extensive transcriptome and genome studies on the marine medaka in the past decade. Such omics data can be useful in understanding the signal transduction pathways of small teleosts in response to environmental stressors. An omics-integrated approach in the study of the marine medaka is important for strengthening its role as a small fish model for marine environmental studies. In this review, we present current omics information about the marine medaka and discuss its potential applications in the study of various molecular pathways that can be targets of marine environmental stressors, such as chemical pollutants. We believe that this review will encourage the use of this small fish as a model species in marine environmental research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stakeholder involvement in agri-environmental policy making--learning from a local- and a state-level approach in Germany.

PubMed

Prager, Katrin; Freese, Jan

2009-02-01

Recent European regulations for rural development emphasise the requirement to involve stakeholder groups and other appropriate bodies in the policy-making process. This paper presents two cases involving stakeholder participation in agri-environmental development and policy making, targeted at different policy-making levels. One study was undertaken in Lower Saxony where a local partnership developed and tested an agri-environmental prescription, which was later included in the state's menu of agri-environmental schemes. In Sachsen-Anhalt, state-facilitated stakeholder workshops including a mathematical model were used to optimise the programme planning and budget allocation at the state level. Both studies aimed at improving the acceptance of agri-environmental schemes. The authors gauge the effectiveness of the two approaches and discuss what lessons can be learned. The experience suggests that the approaches can complement one another and could also be applied to rural policy making.

Implementing ethics in the professions: examples from environmental epidemiology.

PubMed

Soskolne, Colin L; Sieswerda, Lee E

2003-04-01

The need to integrate ethics into professional life, from the grassroots up, has been recognized, and a comprehensive ethics program has been proposed as a model. The model includes the four dimensions of: consensus building, ethics guidelines development and review, education, and implementation. The activities of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology (ISEE) are presented as examples and compared with the proposed model. Several innovative activities are described and incentives for ethical professional conduct are highlighted. The examples are provided for emulation by other professional organizations in the hope that, thereby, greater protection of the public interest will be achieved.

Using ecosystem services to represent the environment in hydro-economic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Momblanch, Andrea; Connor, Jeffery D.; Crossman, Neville D.; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

2016-07-01

Demand for water is expected to grow in line with global human population growth, but opportunities to augment supply are limited in many places due to resource limits and expected impacts of climate change. Hydro-economic models are often used to evaluate water resources management options, commonly with a goal of understanding how to maximise water use value and reduce conflicts among competing uses. The environment is now an important factor in decision making, which has resulted in its inclusion in hydro-economic models. We reviewed 95 studies applying hydro-economic models, and documented how the environment is represented in them and the methods they use to value environmental costs and benefits. We also sought out key gaps and inconsistencies in the treatment of the environment in hydro-economic models. We found that representation of environmental values of water is patchy in most applications, and there should be systematic consideration of the scope of environmental values to include and how they should be valued. We argue that the ecosystem services framework offers a systematic approach to identify the full range of environmental costs and benefits. The main challenges to more holistic representation of the environment in hydro-economic models are the current limits to understanding of ecological functions which relate physical, ecological and economic values and critical environmental thresholds; and the treatment of uncertainty.

Toying with Enzyme Catalysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richards, Debbie

1998-01-01

Describes a set of manipulatives that are used to establish a secure understanding of the concepts related to the environmental factors that affect the activities of enzymes. Includes a description of the model components and procedures for construction of the model. (DDR)

In search of greener pastures: Using satellite images to predict the effects of environmental change on zebra migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlam-Brooks, Hattie L. A.; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Bohrer, Gil; Harris, Stephen

2013-12-01

ungulate migrations occurred in most grassland and boreal woodland ecosystems, but many have been lost due to increasing habitat loss and fragmentation. With the rate of environmental change increasing, identifying and prioritizing migration routes for conservation has taken on a new urgency. Understanding the cues that drive long-distance animal movements is critical to predicting the fate of migrations under different environmental change scenarios and how large migratory herbivores will respond to increasing resource heterogeneity and anthropogenic influences. We used an individual-based modeling approach to investigate the influence of environmental conditions, monitored using satellite data, on departure date and movement speed of migrating zebras in Botswana. Daily zebra movements between dry and rainy season ranges were annotated with coincident observations of precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data set and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). An array of increasingly complex movement models representing alternative hypotheses regarding the environmental cues and controls for movement was parameterized and tested. The best and most justified model predicted daily zebra movement as two linear functions of precipitation rate and NDVI and included a modeled departure date as a function of cumulative precipitation. The model was highly successful at replicating both the timing and pace of seven actual migrations observed using GPS telemetry (R2 = 0.914). It shows how zebras rapidly adjust their movement to changing environmental conditions during migration and are able to reverse migration to avoid adverse conditions or exploit renewed resource availability, a nomadic behavior which should lend them a degree of resilience to climate and environmental change. Our results demonstrate how competing individual-based migration models, informed by freely available satellite data, can be used to evaluate the weight of evidence for multiple hypotheses regarding the use of environmental cues in animal movement. This modeling framework can be applied to quantify how animals adapt the timing and pace of their movements to prevailing environmental conditions and to forecast migrations in near real time or under alternative environmental scenarios.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

PubMed

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-26

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

The future of hydropower planning modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, J.; Zuñiga, D.; Nowak, W.; Olivares, M. A.; Castelletti, A.; Thilmant, A.

2017-12-01

Planning the investment and operation of hydropower plants with optimization tools dates back to the 1970s. The focus used to be solely on the provision of energy. However, advances in computational capacity and solving algorithms, dynamic markets, expansion of renewable sources, and a better understanding of hydropower environmental impacts have recently led to the development of novel planning approaches. In this work, we provide a review, systematization, and trend analysis of these approaches. Further, through interviews with experts, we outline the future of hydropower planning modeling and identify the gaps towards it. We classified the found models along environmental, economic, multipurpose and technical criteria. Environmental interactions include hydropeaking mitigation, water quality protection and limiting greenhouse gas emissions from reservoirs. Economic and regulatory criteria consider uncertainties of fossil fuel prices and relicensing of water rights and power purchase agreements. Multipurpose considerations account for irrigation, tourism, flood protection and drinking water. Recently included technical details account for sedimentation in reservoirs and variable efficiencies of turbines. Additional operational considerations relate to hydrological aspects such as dynamic reservoir inflows, water losses, and climate change. Although many of the above criteria have been addressed in detail on a project-to-project basis, models remain overly simplistic for planning large power fleets. Future hydropower planning tools are expected to improve the representation of the water-energy nexus, including environmental and multipurpose criteria. Further, they will concentrate on identifying new sources of operational flexibility (e.g. through installing additional turbines and pumps) for integrating renewable energy. The operational detail will increase, potentially emphasizing variable efficiencies, storage capacity losses due to sedimentation, and the timing of inflows (which are becoming more variable under climate change). Finally, the relicensing of existing operations and planning new installations are subject to deep uncertainties that need to be captured.

A toy terrestrial carbon flow model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parton, William J.; Running, Steven W.; Walker, Brian

1992-01-01

A generalized carbon flow model for the major terrestrial ecosystems of the world is reported. The model is a simplification of the Century model and the Forest-Biogeochemical model. Topics covered include plant production, decomposition and nutrient cycling, biomes, the utility of the carbon flow model for predicting carbon dynamics under global change, and possible applications to state-and-transition models and environmentally driven global vegetation models.

Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Mercadante, M E Z; Lôbo, R B; Baldi, F; Albuquerque, L G

2012-02-01

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

[Ecological environmental quality assessment of Hangzhou urban area based on RS and GIS].

PubMed

Xu, Pengwei; Zhao, Duo

2006-06-01

In allusion to the shortage of traditional ecological environmental quality assessment, this paper studied the spatial distribution of assessing factors at a mid-small scale, and the conversion of integer character to girding assessing cells. The main assessing factors including natural environmental condition, environmental quality, natural landscape and urbanization pressure, which were classified into four types with about eleven assessing factors, were selected from RS images and GIS-spatial analyzing environmental quality vector graph. Based on GIS, a comprehensive assessment model for the ecological environmental quality in Hangzhou urban area was established. In comparison with observed urban heat island effects, the assessment results were in good agreement with the ecological environmental quality in the urban area of Hangzhou.

Evaluation of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.1

EPA Science Inventory

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Pr...

Overview and Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model Version 5.2

EPA Science Inventory

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Pr...

Evaluation of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.2

EPA Science Inventory

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Pr...

Combining Regional- and Local-Scale Air Quality Models with Exposure Models for Use in Environmental Health Studies

EPA Science Inventory

Population-based human exposure models predict the distribution of personal exposures to pollutants of outdoor origin using a variety of inputs, including: air pollution concentrations; human activity patterns, such as the amount of time spent outdoors vs. indoors, commuting, wal...

40 CFR 60.2585 - What must I include in the notifications of achievement of increments of progress?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) STANDARDS OF PERFORMANCE FOR NEW STATIONARY... Units Model Rule-Increments of Progress § 60.2585 What must I include in the notifications of...

40 CFR 60.2585 - What must I include in the notifications of achievement of increments of progress?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) STANDARDS OF PERFORMANCE FOR NEW STATIONARY... Units Model Rule-Increments of Progress § 60.2585 What must I include in the notifications of...

40 CFR 60.2585 - What must I include in the notifications of achievement of increments of progress?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) STANDARDS OF PERFORMANCE FOR NEW STATIONARY... Units Model Rule-Increments of Progress § 60.2585 What must I include in the notifications of...

40 CFR 60.2825 - What must I include in the notifications of achievement of increments of progress?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) STANDARDS OF PERFORMANCE FOR NEW STATIONARY... Units Model Rule-Air Curtain Incinerators § 60.2825 What must I include in the notifications of...

Space-based Ornithology-Studying Bird Migration and Environmental Change in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James; Deppe, Jill

2008-01-01

Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. We have developed an individual-based, spatially explicit bird migration model that simulates the migration routes, timing and energy budgets of individual birds under dynamic weather and land surface conditions. Our model incorporates biophysical constraints, individual bird energy status, bird behavior, and flight aerodynamics. We model the speed, direction, and timing of individual birds moving through a user specified Lagrangian grid. The model incorporates environmental properties including wind speed and direction, topography, dynamic hydrologic properties of the landscape, and environmental suitability. The model is driven by important variables estimated from satellite observations of the land surface, by data assimilation products from weather and climate models, and biological field data. We illustrate the use of the model to study the impact of both short- and long-term environmental variatios, e.g. climate, drought, anthropogenic, on migration timing (phenology), spatial pattern, and fitness (survival and reproductive success). We present several theoretical simulations of the spring migration of Pectoral Sandpiper (Calidris melanotos) in North America with emphasis on the Central flyway from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

Voluntary environmental agreements: Good or bad news for environmental protection?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Segerson, K.; Miceli, T.J.

1998-09-01

There has been growing interest in the use of voluntary agreements (VAs) as an environmental policy tool. This article uses a simple model to determine whether VAs are likely to lead to efficient environmental protection. The authors consider cases where polluters are induced to participate either by a background threat of mandatory controls (the stick approach) or by cost-sharing subsidies (the carrot approach). The results suggest that the overall impact on environmental quality could be positive or negative, depending on a number of factors, including the allocation of bargaining power, the magnitude of the background threat, and the social costmore » of funds.« less

Acute Diarrheal Syndromic Surveillance

PubMed Central

Kam, H.J.; Choi, S.; Cho, J.P.; Min, Y.G.; Park, R.W.

2010-01-01

Objective In an effort to identify and characterize the environmental factors that affect the number of patients with acute diarrheal (AD) syndrome, we developed and tested two regional surveillance models including holiday and weather information in addition to visitor records, at emergency medical facilities in the Seoul metropolitan area of Korea. Methods With 1,328,686 emergency department visitor records from the National Emergency Department Information system (NEDIS) and the holiday and weather information, two seasonal ARIMA models were constructed: (1) The simple model (only with total patient number), (2) the environmental factor-added model. The stationary R-squared was utilized as an in-sample model goodness-of-fit statistic for the constructed models, and the cumulative mean of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was used to measure post-sample forecast accuracy over the next 1 month. Results The (1,0,1)(0,1,1)7 ARIMA model resulted in an adequate model fit for the daily number of AD patient visits over 12 months for both cases. Among various features, the total number of patient visits was selected as a commonly influential independent variable. Additionally, for the environmental factor-added model, holidays and daily precipitation were selected as features that statistically significantly affected model fitting. Stationary R-squared values were changed in a range of 0.651-0.828 (simple), and 0.805-0.844 (environmental factor-added) with p<0.05. In terms of prediction, the MAPE values changed within 0.090-0.120 and 0.089-0.114, respectively. Conclusion The environmental factor-added model yielded better MAPE values. Holiday and weather information appear to be crucial for the construction of an accurate syndromic surveillance model for AD, in addition to the visitor and assessment records. PMID:23616829

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Ecosystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breininger, David R.; Foster, Tammy E.; Carter, Geoffrey M.; Duncan, Brean W.; Stolen, Eric D.; Lyon, James E.

2017-01-01

The combined effects of repeated fires, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire and not fire history. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells that represented potential territories because frequent fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities between states varied annually as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges, precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presenceabsence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the maximum fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Measuring territory quality states and environmental covariates each year combined with multistate modeling provided a useful empirical approach to quantify the effects of repeated fire in combinations with environmental variables on transition probabilities that drive management strategies and ecosystem change.

Environmental assessment model for shallow land disposal of low-level radioactive wastes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Little, C. A.; Fields, D. E.; Emerson, C. J.; Hiromoto, G.

1981-09-01

The PRESTO (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) computer code developed to evaluate health effects from shallow land burial trenches is described. This generic model assesses radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impact to a static local population for a 1000 y period following the end of burial operations. Human exposure scenarios considered include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population includes ground water transport overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, resuspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses are calculated as well as doses to the intruder and farmer. Cumulative health effects in terms of deaths from cancer are calculated for the population over the 1000 y period using a life table approach. Data bases for three shallow land burial sites (Barnwell, South Carolina, Beatty, Nevada, and West Valley, New York) are under development. The interim model, includes coding for environmental transport through air, surface water, and ground water.

The development and implementation of a teacher education model in environmental science education for Indian Certificate of Secondary Education (ICSE) schools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, Anuradha

This research study is concerned with the teaching of Environmental Science in the ninth and tenth grades of ICSE schools in Mumbai, India and the development and implementation of a new teacher education model. The instructional strategies practiced by the teachers were investigated using a questionnaire, semi-structured interview schedule and classroom observation. Based on these data, a new model of teacher education was developed with the help of a small cohort of teachers. The rationale for the model was that it should be a non-prescriptive framework that provided a coherently organized, concise guide for environmental education teachers that incorporated modern perspectives on content knowledge, effective pedagogical practices including constructivist approaches and active learning, and a set of guidelines for effectively integrating pedagogy with science content knowledge. The model was in the form of a two-way matrix, with the columns providing the pedagogy and the rows indicating the content knowledge. The intersections of the columns and rows to form individual cells of the matrix yielded a synthesis of pedagogical content knowledge (PCK). The model was discussed with the participating teachers, who prepared revised lesson plans using the model and delivered the lessons, which were observed by the researcher. On using the model, the teaching became more student-centered, as the teachers strove to include constructive and inquiry-based approaches. The use of technology enhanced the effectiveness of the lessons and teachers evaluated the students on all three domains of learning (i.e., affective, cognitive, and psychomotor). Most teachers agreed that it was possible to use the model to plan their lesson and implement it in the classroom; however, they needed to put in more time and effort to get used to a change in their teaching methodology. There is no doubt that teacher professional development is a long process and change does not occur immediately. This model is a transitional one and future development of the model may include more emphasis on further refinements in an approximation toward a thoroughgoing constructivist classroom practice, including a more transactional approach than used here.

The ECLSS Advanced Automation Project Evolution and Technology Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dewberry, Brandon S.; Carnes, James R.; Lukefahr, Brenda D.; Rogers, John S.; Rochowiak, Daniel M.; Mckee, James W.; Benson, Brian L.

1990-01-01

Viewgraphs on Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) advanced automation project evolution and technology assessment are presented. Topics covered include: the ECLSS advanced automation project; automatic fault diagnosis of ECLSS subsystems descriptions; in-line, real-time chemical and microbial fluid analysis; and object-oriented, distributed chemical and microbial modeling of regenerative environmental control systems description.

DEVELOPING SITE-SPECIFIC MODELS FOR FORECASTING BACTERIA LEVELS AT COASTAL BEACHES

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S.Beaches Environmental Assessment and Coastal Health Act of 2000 authorizes studies of pathogen indicators in coastal recreation waters that develop appropriate, accurate, expeditious, and cost-effective methods (including predictive models) for quantifying pathogens in co...

A PROBABILISTIC MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR PREDICTING POPULATION EXPOSURES TO BENZENE

EPA Science Inventory

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is modifying their probabilistic Stochastic Human Exposure Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model to assess aggregate exposures to air toxics. Air toxics include urban Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPS) such as benzene from mobile sources, part...

Using HexSim to link demography and genetics in animal and plant simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Simulation models are essential for understanding the effects of land management practices and environmental drivers, including landscape change, shape population genetic structure and persistence probabilities. The emerging field of eco-evolutionary modeling is beginning to dev...

MULTIMEDIA ENVIRONMENTAL DISTRIBUTION OF TOXICS (MEND-TOX): PART I, HYBRID COMPARTMENTAL-SPATIAL MODELING FRAMEWORK

EPA Science Inventory

An integrated hybrid spatial-compartmental modeling approach is presented for analyzing the dynamic distribution of chemicals in the multimedia environment. Information obtained from such analysis, which includes temporal chemical concentration profiles in various media, mass ...

Evaluation of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transport and fate of numerous air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter. The Computational Exposure Division (CED) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency develops the CMAQ model and periodically releases new versions of the model that include bug fixes and various other improvements to the modeling system. In the fall of 2015, CMAQ version 5.1 was released. This new version of CMAQ will contain important bug fixes to several issues that were identified in CMAQv5.0.2 and additionally include updates to other portions of the code. Several annual, and numerous episodic, CMAQv5.1 simulations were performed to assess the impact of these improvements on the model results. These results will be presented, along with a base evaluation of the performance of the CMAQv5.1 modeling system against available surface and upper-air measurements available during the time period simulated. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, proces

Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change.

PubMed

Wang, Wen J; He, Hong S; Thompson, Frank R; Spetich, Martin A; Fraser, Jacob S

2018-09-01

Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are not well represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts. We investigate how species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity affect species distribution shifts. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest dynamic model LANDIS PRO, which incorporates site-scale tree species demography and competition, landscape-scale dispersal and disturbances, and regional-scale abiotic controls, to simulate the distribution shifts of four representative tree species with distinct biological traits in the central hardwood forest region of United States. Our results suggested that biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age) were important for determining tree species distribution shifts. Environmental heterogeneity, on average, reduced shift rates by 8% compared to perfect environmental conditions. The average distribution shift rates ranged from 24 to 200myear -1 under climate change scenarios, implying that many tree species may not able to keep up with climate change because of limited dispersal capacity, long generation time, and environmental heterogeneity. We suggest that climate-distribution models should include species demographic processes (e.g., fecundity, dispersal, colonization), biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age), and environmental heterogeneity (e.g., habitat fragmentation) to improve future predictions of species distribution shifts in response to changing climates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear dynamics of the CAM circadian rhythm in response to environmental forcing.

PubMed

Hartzell, Samantha; Bartlett, Mark S; Virgin, Lawrence; Porporato, Amilcare

2015-03-07

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) photosynthesis functions as an endogenous circadian rhythm coupled to external environmental forcings of energy and water availability. This paper explores the nonlinear dynamics of a new CAM photosynthesis model (Bartlett et al., 2014) and investigates the responses of CAM plant carbon assimilation to different combinations of environmental conditions. The CAM model (Bartlett et al., 2014) consists of a Calvin cycle typical of C3 plants coupled to an oscillator of the type employed in the Van der Pol and FitzHugh-Nagumo systems. This coupled system is a function of environmental variables including leaf temperature, leaf moisture potential, and irradiance. Here, we explore the qualitative response of the system and the expected carbon assimilation under constant and periodically forced environmental conditions. The model results show how the diurnal evolution of these variables entrains the CAM cycle with prevailing environmental conditions. While constant environmental conditions generate either steady-state or periodically oscillating responses in malic acid uptake and release, forcing the CAM system with periodic daily fluctuations in light exposure and leaf temperature results in quasi-periodicity and possible chaos for certain ranges of these variables. This analysis is a first step in quantifying changes in CAM plant productivity with variables such as the mean temperature, daily temperature range, irradiance, and leaf moisture potential. Results may also be used to inform model parametrization based on the observed fluctuating regime. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Past and future perspectives on mathematical models of tick-borne pathogens.

PubMed

Norman, R A; Worton, A J; Gilbert, L

2016-06-01

Ticks are vectors of pathogens which are important both with respect to human health and economically. They have a complex life cycle requiring several blood meals throughout their life. These blood meals take place on different individual hosts and potentially on different host species. Their life cycle is also dependent on environmental conditions such as the temperature and habitat type. Mathematical models have been used for the more than 30 years to help us understand how tick dynamics are dependent on these environmental factors and host availability. In this paper, we review models of tick dynamics and summarize the main results. This summary is split into two parts, one which looks at tick dynamics and one which looks at tick-borne pathogens. In general, the models of tick dynamics are used to determine when the peak in tick densities is likely to occur in the year and how that changes with environmental conditions. The models of tick-borne pathogens focus more on the conditions under which the pathogen can persist and how host population densities might be manipulated to control these pathogens. In the final section of the paper, we identify gaps in the current knowledge and future modelling approaches. These include spatial models linked to environmental information and Geographic Information System maps, and development of new modelling techniques which model tick densities per host more explicitly.

The Role of Environmental Toxins on ALS: A Case-Control Study of Occupational Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Su, Feng-Chiao.; Goutman, Stephen A.; Chernyak, Sergey; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Callaghan, Brian C.; Batterman, Stuart; Feldman, Eva L.

2016-01-01

Importance Persistent environmental pollutants may represent a modifiable risk factor involved in the gene-time-environment hypothesis in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Objective To evaluate the association of occupational exposures and environmental toxins on the odds of developing ALS in Michigan, a state with historically high levels of environmental pollution. Design Case-control study conducted between 2011 and 2014. Setting Tertiary referral center/ALS referral center Participants ALS cases (n=156) with a diagnosis of definitive, probable, probable with laboratory support, or possible ALS by revised El Escorial criteria. Controls (n=128) were excluded if they had a diagnosis of ALS, another neurodegenerative condition, or a family history of ALS in a first- or second-degree blood relative. Additional exclusions included age less than 18 or inability to communicate in English. Main Outcome and Measure(s) Cases and controls completed a survey assessing occupational and residential exposures. Blood concentrations of 122 persistent environmental pollutants, including organochlorine pesticides (OCP), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and brominated flame retardants (BFRs), were measured using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Multivariable models with self-reported occupational exposures in various exposure time windows and environmental toxin blood concentrations were separately fit by logistic regression models. Concordance between the survey data and pollutant measurements was assessed using the nonparametric Kendall’s Tau correlation coefficient. Results Survey data revealed that reported pesticide exposure in the cumulative exposure windows was significantly associated with ALS (OR = 5.09, 95% CI = 1.85–14.0). Military service was also associated with ALS in two time windows. A multivariable model of measured persistent environmental pollutants in the blood, representing cumulative occupational and residential exposure, showed increased odds of ALS for 2 OCPs, 2 PCBs, and 1 BFR. There was modest concordance between survey data and the measurements of persistent environmental pollutants in blood. Conclusions and Relevance Persistent environmental pollutants measured in blood are significantly associated with ALS. These environmental pollutants may represent a modifiable ALS disease risk factor and should be further studied. PMID:27159543

Dissolved oxygen, stream temperature, and fish habitat response to environmental water purchases.

PubMed

Null, Sarah E; Mouzon, Nathaniel R; Elmore, Logan R

2017-07-15

Environmental water purchases are increasingly used for ecological protection. In Nevada's Walker Basin (western USA), environmental water purchases augment streamflow in the Walker River and increase lake elevation of terminal Walker Lake. However, water quality impairments like elevated stream temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentrations also limit ecosystems and species, including federally-threatened Lahontan cutthroat trout. In this paper, we prioritize water volumes and locations that most enhance water quality for riverine habitat from potential environmental water rights purchases. We monitored and modeled streamflows, stream temperatures, and dissolved oxygen concentrations using River Modeling System, an hourly, physically-based hydrodynamic and water quality model. Modeled environmental water purchases ranged from average daily increases of 0.11-1.41 cubic meters per second (m 3 /s) during 2014 and 2015, two critically dry years. Results suggest that water purchases consistently cooled maximum daily stream temperatures and warmed nightly minimum temperatures. This prevented extremely low dissolved oxygen concentrations below 5.0 mg/L, but increased the duration of moderate conditions between 5.5 and 6.0 mg/L. Small water purchases less than approximately 0.71 m 3 /s per day had little benefit for Walker River habitat. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were affected by upstream environmental conditions, where suitable upstream water quality improved downstream conditions and vice versa. Overall, this study showed that critically dry water years degrade environmental water quality and habitat, but environmental water purchases of at least 0.71 m 3 /s were promising for river restoration. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Biological responses to environmental heterogeneity under future ocean conditions.

PubMed

Boyd, Philip W; Cornwall, Christopher E; Davison, Andrew; Doney, Scott C; Fourquez, Marion; Hurd, Catriona L; Lima, Ivan D; McMinn, Andrew

2016-08-01

Organisms are projected to face unprecedented rates of change in future ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate-change. At present, marine life encounters a wide range of environmental heterogeneity from natural fluctuations to mean climate change. Manipulation studies suggest that biota from more variable marine environments have more phenotypic plasticity to tolerate environmental heterogeneity. Here, we consider current strategies employed by a range of representative organisms across various habitats - from short-lived phytoplankton to long-lived corals - in response to environmental heterogeneity. We then discuss how, if and when organismal responses (acclimate/migrate/adapt) may be altered by shifts in the magnitude of the mean climate-change signal relative to that for natural fluctuations projected for coming decades. The findings from both novel climate-change modelling simulations and prior biological manipulation studies, in which natural fluctuations are superimposed on those of mean change, provide valuable insights into organismal responses to environmental heterogeneity. Manipulations reveal that different experimental outcomes are evident between climate-change treatments which include natural fluctuations vs. those which do not. Modelling simulations project that the magnitude of climate variability, along with mean climate change, will increase in coming decades, and hence environmental heterogeneity will increase, illustrating the need for more realistic biological manipulation experiments that include natural fluctuations. However, simulations also strongly suggest that the timescales over which the mean climate-change signature will become dominant, relative to natural fluctuations, will vary for individual properties, being most rapid for CO2 (~10 years from present day) to 4 decades for nutrients. We conclude that the strategies used by biota to respond to shifts in environmental heterogeneity may be complex, as they will have to physiologically straddle wide-ranging timescales in the alteration of ocean conditions, including the need to adapt to rapidly rising CO2 and also acclimate to environmental heterogeneity in more slowly changing properties such as warming. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Marine Socio-Environmental Covariates: queryable global layers of environmental and anthropogenic variables for marine ecosystem studies.

PubMed

Yeager, Lauren A; Marchand, Philippe; Gill, David A; Baum, Julia K; McPherson, Jana M

2017-07-01

Biophysical conditions, including climate, environmental stress, and habitat availability, are key drivers of many ecological processes (e.g., community assembly and productivity) and associated ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration and fishery production). Furthermore, anthropogenic impacts such as coastal development and fishing can have drastic effects on the structure and function of marine ecosystems. Scientists need to account for environmental variation and human impacts to accurately model, manage, and conserve marine ecosystems. Although there are many types of environmental data available from global remote sensing and open-source data products, some are inaccessible to potential end-users because they exist as global layers in high temporal and spatial resolutions which require considerable computational power to process. Additionally, coastal locations often suffer from missing data or data quality issues which limit the utility of some global marine products for coastal sites. Herein we present the Marine Socio-Environmental Covariates dataset for the global oceans, which consists of environmental and anthropogenic variables summarized in ecologically relevant ways. The dataset includes four sets of environmental variables related to biophysical conditions (net primary productivity models corrected for shallow-water reflectance, wave energy including sheltered-coastline corrections) and landscape context (coral reef and land cover within varying radii). We also present two sets of anthropogenic variables, human population density (within varying radii) and distance to large population center, which can serve as indicators of local human impacts. We have paired global, summarized layers available for download with an online data querying platform that allows users to extract data for specific point locations with finer control of summary statistics. In creating these global layers and online platform, we hope to make the data accessible to a wide array of end-users with the goal of advancing marine ecosystem studies. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Environmental correlates of upstream migration of yellow-phase American eels in the Potomac River drainage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welsh, Stuart A.; Heather L. Liller,

2013-01-01

Assessing the relationships between upstream migration and environmental variables is important to understanding the ecology of yellow-phase American Eels Anguilla rostrata. During an American Eel migration study within the lower Shenandoah River (Potomac River drainage), we counted and measured American Eels at the Millville Dam eel ladder for three periods: 14 May–23 July 2004, 7–30 September 2004, and 1 June–31 July 2005. Using generalized estimating equations, we modeled each time series of daily American Eel counts by fitting time-varying environmental covariates of lunar illumination (LI), river discharge (RD), and water temperature (WT), including 1-d and 2-d lags of each covariate. Information-theoretic approaches were used for model selection and inference. A total of 4,847 American Eels (19–74 cm total length) used the ladder during the three periods, including 2,622 individuals during a 2-d span following a hurricane-induced peak in river discharge. Additive-effects models of RD + WT, a 2-d lag of LI + RD, and LI + RD were supported for the three periods, respectively. Parameter estimates were positive for river discharge for each time period, negative for lunar illumination for two periods and positive for water temperature during one period. Additive-effects models supported synergistic influences of environmental variables on the upstream migration of yellow-phase American Eels, although river discharge was consistently supported as an influential correlate of upstream migration.

`spup' - An R Package for Analysis of Spatial Uncertainty Propagation and Application to Trace Gas Emission Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawicka, K.; Breuer, L.; Houska, T.; Santabarbara Ruiz, I.; Heuvelink, G. B. M.

2016-12-01

Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Advances in uncertainty propagation analysis and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability, including case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the `spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Here we will demonstrate that the 'spup' package is an effective and easy-to-use tool to be applied even in a very complex study case, and that it can be used in multi-disciplinary research and model-based decision support. As an example, we use the ecological LandscapeDNDC model to analyse propagation of uncertainties associated with spatial variability of the model driving forces such as rainfall, nitrogen deposition and fertilizer inputs. The uncertainty propagation is analysed for the prediction of emissions of N2O and CO2 for a German low mountainous, agriculturally developed catchment. The study tests the effect of spatial correlations on spatially aggregated model outputs, and could serve as an advice for developing best management practices and model improvement strategies.

Envirotyping for deciphering environmental impacts on crop plants.

PubMed

Xu, Yunbi

2016-04-01

Global climate change imposes increasing impacts on our environments and crop production. To decipher environmental impacts on crop plants, the concept "envirotyping" is proposed, as a third "typing" technology, complementing with genotyping and phenotyping. Environmental factors can be collected through multiple environmental trials, geographic and soil information systems, measurement of soil and canopy properties, and evaluation of companion organisms. Envirotyping contributes to crop modeling and phenotype prediction through its functional components, including genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI), genes responsive to environmental signals, biotic and abiotic stresses, and integrative phenotyping. Envirotyping, driven by information and support systems, has a wide range of applications, including environmental characterization, GEI analysis, phenotype prediction, near-iso-environment construction, agronomic genomics, precision agriculture and breeding, and development of a four-dimensional profile of crop science involving genotype (G), phenotype (P), envirotype (E) and time (T) (developmental stage). In the future, envirotyping needs to zoom into specific experimental plots and individual plants, along with the development of high-throughput and precision envirotyping platforms, to integrate genotypic, phenotypic and envirotypic information for establishing a high-efficient precision breeding and sustainable crop production system based on deciphered environmental impacts.

Integrated Assessment of Health-related Economic Impacts of U.S. Air Pollution Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saari, R. K.; Rausch, S.; Selin, N. E.

2012-12-01

We examine the environmental impacts, health-related economic benefits, and distributional effects of new US regulations to reduce smog from power plants, namely: the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule. Using integrated assessment methods, linking atmospheric and economic models, we assess the magnitude of economy-wide effects and distributional consequences that are not captured by traditional regulatory impact assessment methods. We study the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, a modified allowance trading scheme that caps emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide from power plants in the eastern United States and thus reduces ozone and particulate matter pollution. We use results from the regulatory regional air quality model, CAMx (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions), and epidemiologic studies in BenMAP (Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program), to quantify differences in morbidities and mortalities due to this policy. To assess the economy-wide and distributional consequences of these health impacts, we apply a recently developed economic and policy model, the US Regional Energy and Environmental Policy Model (USREP), a multi-region, multi-sector, multi-household, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium economic model of the US that provides a detailed representation of the energy sector, and the ability to represent energy and environmental policies. We add to USREP a representation of air pollution impacts, including the estimation and valuation of health outcomes and their effects on health services, welfare, and factor markets. We find that the economic welfare benefits of the Rule are underestimated by traditional methods, which omit economy-wide impacts. We also quantify the distribution of benefits, which have varying effects across US regions, income groups, and pollutants, and we identify factors influencing this distribution, including the geographic variation of pollution and population as well as underlying economic conditions.

A statistical simulation model for field testing of non-target organisms in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

PubMed

Goedhart, Paul W; van der Voet, Hilko; Baldacchino, Ferdinando; Arpaia, Salvatore

2014-04-01

Genetic modification of plants may result in unintended effects causing potentially adverse effects on the environment. A comparative safety assessment is therefore required by authorities, such as the European Food Safety Authority, in which the genetically modified plant is compared with its conventional counterpart. Part of the environmental risk assessment is a comparative field experiment in which the effect on non-target organisms is compared. Statistical analysis of such trials come in two flavors: difference testing and equivalence testing. It is important to know the statistical properties of these, for example, the power to detect environmental change of a given magnitude, before the start of an experiment. Such prospective power analysis can best be studied by means of a statistical simulation model. This paper describes a general framework for simulating data typically encountered in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. The simulation model, available as Supplementary Material, can be used to generate count data having different statistical distributions possibly with excess-zeros. In addition the model employs completely randomized or randomized block experiments, can be used to simulate single or multiple trials across environments, enables genotype by environment interaction by adding random variety effects, and finally includes repeated measures in time following a constant, linear or quadratic pattern in time possibly with some form of autocorrelation. The model also allows to add a set of reference varieties to the GM plants and its comparator to assess the natural variation which can then be used to set limits of concern for equivalence testing. The different count distributions are described in some detail and some examples of how to use the simulation model to study various aspects, including a prospective power analysis, are provided.

A statistical simulation model for field testing of non-target organisms in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants

PubMed Central

Goedhart, Paul W; van der Voet, Hilko; Baldacchino, Ferdinando; Arpaia, Salvatore

2014-01-01

Genetic modification of plants may result in unintended effects causing potentially adverse effects on the environment. A comparative safety assessment is therefore required by authorities, such as the European Food Safety Authority, in which the genetically modified plant is compared with its conventional counterpart. Part of the environmental risk assessment is a comparative field experiment in which the effect on non-target organisms is compared. Statistical analysis of such trials come in two flavors: difference testing and equivalence testing. It is important to know the statistical properties of these, for example, the power to detect environmental change of a given magnitude, before the start of an experiment. Such prospective power analysis can best be studied by means of a statistical simulation model. This paper describes a general framework for simulating data typically encountered in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. The simulation model, available as Supplementary Material, can be used to generate count data having different statistical distributions possibly with excess-zeros. In addition the model employs completely randomized or randomized block experiments, can be used to simulate single or multiple trials across environments, enables genotype by environment interaction by adding random variety effects, and finally includes repeated measures in time following a constant, linear or quadratic pattern in time possibly with some form of autocorrelation. The model also allows to add a set of reference varieties to the GM plants and its comparator to assess the natural variation which can then be used to set limits of concern for equivalence testing. The different count distributions are described in some detail and some examples of how to use the simulation model to study various aspects, including a prospective power analysis, are provided. PMID:24834325

Temporal scale dependent interactions between multiple environmental disturbances in microcosm ecosystems.

PubMed

Garnier, Aurélie; Pennekamp, Frank; Lemoine, Mélissa; Petchey, Owen L

2017-12-01

Global environmental change has negative impacts on ecological systems, impacting the stable provision of functions, goods, and services. Whereas effects of individual environmental changes (e.g. temperature change or change in resource availability) are reasonably well understood, we lack information about if and how multiple changes interact. We examined interactions among four types of environmental disturbance (temperature, nutrient ratio, carbon enrichment, and light) in a fully factorial design using a microbial aquatic ecosystem and observed responses of dissolved oxygen saturation at three temporal scales (resistance, resilience, and return time). We tested whether multiple disturbances combine in a dominant, additive, or interactive fashion, and compared the predictability of dissolved oxygen across scales. Carbon enrichment and shading reduced oxygen concentration in the short term (i.e. resistance); although no other effects or interactions were statistically significant, resistance decreased as the number of disturbances increased. In the medium term, only enrichment accelerated recovery, but none of the other effects (including interactions) were significant. In the long term, enrichment and shading lengthened return times, and we found significant two-way synergistic interactions between disturbances. The best performing model (dominant, additive, or interactive) depended on the temporal scale of response. In the short term (i.e. for resistance), the dominance model predicted resistance of dissolved oxygen best, due to a large effect of carbon enrichment, whereas none of the models could predict the medium term (i.e. resilience). The long-term response was best predicted by models including interactions among disturbances. Our results indicate the importance of accounting for the temporal scale of responses when researching the effects of environmental disturbances on ecosystems. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The etiologic role of genetic and environmental factors in criminal behavior as determined from full- and half-sibling pairs: an evaluation of the validity of the twin method.

PubMed

Kendler, K S; Lönn, S L; Maes, H H; Sundquist, J; Sundquist, K

2015-07-01

Twin studies have shown that criminal behavior (CB) is influenced by both genetic and shared environmental factors. Could these results be replicated using full-siblings and half-siblings? In 911 009 full-siblings reared together (FSRT), 41 872 half-siblings reared together (HSRT) and 52 590 half-siblings reared apart (HSRA), CB was assessed from the Swedish Crime Register. Modeling, including testing for age differences and rearing status, was performed using the OpenMx package. Five sibling models were fitted examining FSRT and HSRT 0-2 years different in age, and both FSRT and HSRT, and FSRT, HSRT and HSRA 0-10 years different in age with and without a specified shared environment indexing age differences. Heritability estimates for CB ranged from 33 to 55% in females and 39 to 56% in males, similar to those found in our prior twin study on the same population. Estimates for the shared environment varied from 1 to 14% in females and 10 to 23% in males, lower than those estimated in the twin study. The specified shared environment indexed by sibling age differences was significant in all models tested. Heritability estimates for CB from full- and half-siblings closely approximated those found from twins in the same population, validating the twin method. Shared environmental estimates were lower, suggesting the presence of shared environmental factors for CB specific to twins. When rearing status can be assessed, full- and half-siblings offer an additional method for assessing the role of genetic and environmental factors in complex disorders. However, age differences in siblings may need to be included in the models.

Environmental Indicator Principium with Case References to Agricultural Soil, Water, and Air Quality and Model-Derived Indicators.

PubMed

Zhang, T Q; Zheng, Z M; Lal, R; Lin, Z Q; Sharpley, A N; Shober, A L; Smith, D; Tan, C S; Van Cappellen, P

2018-03-01

Environmental indicators are powerful tools for tracking environmental changes, measuring environmental performance, and informing policymakers. Many diverse environmental indicators, including agricultural environmental indicators, are currently in use or being developed. This special collection of technical papers expands on the peer-reviewed literature on environmental indicators and their application to important current issues in the following areas: (i) model-derived indicators to indicate phosphorus losses from arable land to surface runoff and subsurface drainage, (ii) glutathione-ascorbate cycle-related antioxidants as early-warning bioindicators of polybrominated diphenyl ether toxicity in mangroves, and (iii) assessing the effectiveness of using organic matrix biobeds to limit herbicide dissipation from agricultural fields, thereby controlling on-farm point-source pollution. This introductory review also provides an overview of environmental indicators, mainly for agriculture, with examples related to the quality of the agricultural soil-water-air continuum and the application of model-derived indicators. Current knowledge gaps and future lines of investigation are also discussed. It appears that environmental indicators, particularly those for agriculture, work efficiently at the field, catchment, and local scales and serve as valuable metrics of system functioning and response; however, these indicators need to be refined or further developed to comprehensively meet community expectations in terms of providing a consistent picture of relevant issues and/or allowing comparisons to be made nationally or internationally. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS){reg_sign}: Atmospheric pathway formulations. Revision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Droppo, J.G.; Buck, J.W.

1996-03-01

The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) is an integrated software implementation of physics-based fate and transport models for health and environmental risk assessments of both radioactive and hazardous pollutants. This atmospheric component report is one of a series of formulation reports that document the MEPAS mathematical models. MEPAS is a multimedia model; pollutant transport is modeled within, through, and between multiple media (air, soil, groundwater, and surface water). The estimated concentrations in the various media are used to compute exposures and impacts to the environment, to maximum individuals, and to populations. The MEPAS atmospheric component for the air mediamore » documented in this report includes models for emission from a source to the air, initial plume rise and dispersion, airborne pollutant transport and dispersion, and deposition to soils and crops. The material in this report is documentation for MEPAS Versions 3.0 and 3.1 and the MEPAS version used in the Remedial Action Assessment System (RAAS) Version 1.0.« less

Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

PubMed

Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

2016-08-15

This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Identification of the cumulative eco-environment effect of coal-electricity integration based on interpretative structural model].

PubMed

Han, Lin Wei; Fu, Xiao; Yan, Yan; Wang, Chen Xing; Wu, Gang

2017-05-18

In order to determine the cumulative eco-environmental effect of coal-electricity integration, we selected 29 eco-environmental factors including different development and construction activities of coal-electricity integration, soil, water, atmospheric conditions, biology, landscape, and ecology. Literature survey, expert questionnaire and interview were conducted to analyze the interactive relationships between different factors. The structure and correlations between the eco-environmental factors influenced by coal-electricity integration activities were analyzed using interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and the cumulative eco-environment effect of development and construction activities was determined. A research and evaluation framework for the cumulative eco-environmental effect was introduced in addition to specific evaluation and management needs. The results of this study would provide a theoretical and technical basis for planning and management of coal-electricity integration development activities.

Hanford Site National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Characterization. Revision 5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cushing, C.E.

1992-12-01

This fifth revision of the Hanford Site National Environmental Policy (NEPA) Characterization presents current environmental data regarding the Hanford Site and its immediate environs. This information is intended for use in preparing Site-related NEPA documentation. Information is presented on climate and meteorology, geology and hydrology, ecology, history and archaeology, socioeconomics, land use, and noise levels, prepared by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) staff. Models are described that are to be used in simulating realized or potential impacts from nuclear materials at the Hanford Site. Included are models of radionuclide transport in groundwater and atmospheric pathways, and of radiation dose to populationsmore » via all known pathways from known initial conditions. Federal and state regulations, DOE orders and permits, and environmental standards directly applicable for the NEPA documents at the Hanford Site, are provided.« less

Hanford Site National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cushing, C.E.

1992-12-01

This fifth revision of the Hanford Site National Environmental Policy (NEPA) Characterization presents current environmental data regarding the Hanford Site and its immediate environs. This information is intended for use in preparing Site-related NEPA documentation. Information is presented on climate and meteorology, geology and hydrology, ecology, history and archaeology, socioeconomics, land use, and noise levels, prepared by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) staff. Models are described that are to be used in simulating realized or potential impacts from nuclear materials at the Hanford Site. Included are models of radionuclide transport in groundwater and atmospheric pathways, and of radiation dose to populationsmore » via all known pathways from known initial conditions. Federal and state regulations, DOE orders and permits, and environmental standards directly applicable for the NEPA documents at the Hanford Site, are provided.« less

A case study of elementary teachers' conceptions of environmental literacy in relationship to a tall grass prairie restoration project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shume, Teresa Jayne

The purpose of this qualitative case study was to describe seven elementary teachers' conceptions of environmental literacy in relationship to a tall grass prairie restoration project and to explore ways in which the tall grass prairie restoration project for third grade contributed to enhancing educational learning experiences. The research questions were: 1. What are teachers' conceptions of environmental literacy for third grade students? 2. How does the prairie restoration trip contribute to teachers' capacity to teach for environmental literacy of third grade students? 3. What is the pedagogical value of the prairie restoration project? The theoretical frameworks underpinning this study were David Sobel's (1996) model for developmental progression in children's relationships with nature, and the North American Environmental Education Association's (2011) framework for environmental literacy. The first assertion derived from thematic data analysis of interviews, field trip observations, classroom observations, and artifacts was, The participating teachers' visions of environmental literacy for third grade students included components that spanned across a developmentally appropriate progression from cultivating empathy for living things, to fueling discovery of nature, to fostering a sense of responsibility toward the natural world . Components of environmental literacy described by teachers included being at ease in the natural environment, appreciation and respect, wonder and curiosity, awareness and interdependence, sense of agency, responsibility and service, and environmental knowledge. The second assertion stemming from thematic data analysis was, The prairie restoration project and related curriculum have pedagogical value that included and exceeded addressing state science standards. In addition to addressing state science standards identified by teachers, the curriculum related to the prairie restoration project served as an agent of curricular cohesion to integrate a variety of subject areas, developed scientific ways of thinking, provided life experience for children, and fostered authentic learning experiences through concrete connections. It also provided a means to enhance the presence of science and social studies in elementary curriculum. Themes emerging from qualitative data analysis resonated with Sobel's model of progressive stages in children's relationships with nature, and resulted in a tool potentially useful for design of elementary curriculum aimed at developing environmental literacy.

The valproic acid-induced rodent model of autism.

PubMed

Nicolini, Chiara; Fahnestock, Margaret

2018-01-01

Autism is a lifelong neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by impairments in social communication and interaction and by repetitive patterns of behavior, interests and activities. While autism has a strong genetic component, environmental factors including toxins, pesticides, infection and drugs are known to confer autism susceptibility, likely by inducing epigenetic changes. In particular, exposure to valproic acid (VPA) during pregnancy has been demonstrated to increase the risk of autism in children. Furthermore, rodents prenatally exposed to this drug display behavioral phenotypes characteristics of the human condition. Indeed, in utero exposure of rodents to VPA represents a robust model of autism exhibiting face, construct and predictive validity. This model might better represent the many cases of idiopathic autism which are of environmental/epigenetic origins than do transgenic models carrying mutations in single autism-associated genes. The VPA model provides a valuable tool to investigate the neurobiology underlying autistic behavior and to screen for novel therapeutics. Here we review the VPA-induced rodent model of autism, highlighting its importance and reliability as an environmentally-induced animal model of autism. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Linking macroecology and community ecology: refining predictions of species distributions using biotic interaction networks.

PubMed

Staniczenko, Phillip P A; Sivasubramaniam, Prabu; Suttle, K Blake; Pearson, Richard G

2017-06-01

Macroecological models for predicting species distributions usually only include abiotic environmental conditions as explanatory variables, despite knowledge from community ecology that all species are linked to other species through biotic interactions. This disconnect is largely due to the different spatial scales considered by the two sub-disciplines: macroecologists study patterns at large extents and coarse resolutions, while community ecologists focus on small extents and fine resolutions. A general framework for including biotic interactions in macroecological models would help bridge this divide, as it would allow for rigorous testing of the role that biotic interactions play in determining species ranges. Here, we present an approach that combines species distribution models with Bayesian networks, which enables the direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions to be modelled as propagating conditional dependencies among species' presences. We show that including biotic interactions in distribution models for species from a California grassland community results in better range predictions across the western USA. This new approach will be important for improving estimates of species distributions and their dynamics under environmental change. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fine-scale habitat modeling of a top marine predator: do prey data improve predictive capacity?

PubMed

Torres, Leigh G; Read, Andrew J; Halpin, Patrick

2008-10-01

Predators and prey assort themselves relative to each other, the availability of resources and refuges, and the temporal and spatial scale of their interaction. Predictive models of predator distributions often rely on these relationships by incorporating data on environmental variability and prey availability to determine predator habitat selection patterns. This approach to predictive modeling holds true in marine systems where observations of predators are logistically difficult, emphasizing the need for accurate models. In this paper, we ask whether including prey distribution data in fine-scale predictive models of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) habitat selection in Florida Bay, Florida, U.S.A., improves predictive capacity. Environmental characteristics are often used as predictor variables in habitat models of top marine predators with the assumption that they act as proxies of prey distribution. We examine the validity of this assumption by comparing the response of dolphin distribution and fish catch rates to the same environmental variables. Next, the predictive capacities of four models, with and without prey distribution data, are tested to determine whether dolphin habitat selection can be predicted without recourse to describing the distribution of their prey. The final analysis determines the accuracy of predictive maps of dolphin distribution produced by modeling areas of high fish catch based on significant environmental characteristics. We use spatial analysis and independent data sets to train and test the models. Our results indicate that, due to high habitat heterogeneity and the spatial variability of prey patches, fine-scale models of dolphin habitat selection in coastal habitats will be more successful if environmental variables are used as predictor variables of predator distributions rather than relying on prey data as explanatory variables. However, predictive modeling of prey distribution as the response variable based on environmental variability did produce high predictive performance of dolphin habitat selection, particularly foraging habitat.

Environmental Interactions and Epistasis Are Revealed in the Proteomic Responses to Complex Stimuli

PubMed Central

Samir, Parimal; Rahul; Slaughter, James C.; Link, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Ultimately, the genotype of a cell and its interaction with the environment determine the cell’s biochemical state. While the cell’s response to a single stimulus has been studied extensively, a conceptual framework to model the effect of multiple environmental stimuli applied concurrently is not as well developed. In this study, we developed the concepts of environmental interactions and epistasis to explain the responses of the S. cerevisiae proteome to simultaneous environmental stimuli. We hypothesize that, as an abstraction, environmental stimuli can be treated as analogous to genetic elements. This would allow modeling of the effects of multiple stimuli using the concepts and tools developed for studying gene interactions. Mirroring gene interactions, our results show that environmental interactions play a critical role in determining the state of the proteome. We show that individual and complex environmental stimuli behave similarly to genetic elements in regulating the cellular responses to stimuli, including the phenomena of dominance and suppression. Interestingly, we observed that the effect of a stimulus on a protein is dominant over other stimuli if the response to the stimulus involves the protein. Using publicly available transcriptomic data, we find that environmental interactions and epistasis regulate transcriptomic responses as well. PMID:26247773

Comparison of a Fixed-Wing and Multi-Rotor Uav for Environmental Mapping Applications: a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boon, M. A.; Drijfhout, A. P.; Tesfamichael, S.

2017-08-01

The advent and evolution of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and photogrammetric techniques has provided the possibility for on-demand high-resolution environmental mapping. Orthoimages and three dimensional products such as Digital Surface Models (DSMs) are derived from the UAV imagery which is amongst the most important spatial information tools for environmental planning. The two main types of UAVs in the commercial market are fixed-wing and multi-rotor. Both have their advantages and disadvantages including their suitability for certain applications. Fixed-wing UAVs normally have longer flight endurance capabilities while multi-rotors can provide for stable image capturing and easy vertical take-off and landing. Therefore, the objective of this study is to assess the performance of a fixed-wing versus a multi-rotor UAV for environmental mapping applications by conducting a specific case study. The aerial mapping of the Cors-Air model aircraft field which includes a wetland ecosystem was undertaken on the same day with a Skywalker fixed-wing UAV and a Raven X8 multi-rotor UAV equipped with similar sensor specifications (digital RGB camera) under the same weather conditions. We compared the derived datasets by applying the DTMs for basic environmental mapping purposes such as slope and contour mapping including utilising the orthoimages for identification of anthropogenic disturbances. The ground spatial resolution obtained was slightly higher for the multi-rotor probably due to a slower flight speed and more images. The results in terms of the overall precision of the data was noticeably less accurate for the fixed-wing. In contrast, orthoimages derived from the two systems showed small variations. The multi-rotor imagery provided better representation of vegetation although the fixed-wing data was sufficient for the identification of environmental factors such as anthropogenic disturbances. Differences were observed utilising the respective DTMs for the mapping of the wetland slope and contour mapping including the representation of hydrological features within the wetland. Factors such as cost, maintenance and flight time is in favour of the Skywalker fixed-wing. The multi-rotor on the other hand is more favourable in terms of data accuracy including for precision environmental planning purposes although the quality of the data of the fixed-wing is satisfactory for most environmental mapping applications.

Local environmental context conditions the impact of Russian olive in a heterogeneous riparian ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tuttle, Graham M.; Katz, Gabrielle L.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Norton, Andrew P.

2016-01-01

Local abiotic and biotic conditions can alter the strength of exotic species impacts. To better understand the effects of exotic species on invaded ecosystems and to prioritize management efforts, it is important that exotic species impacts are put in local environmental context. We studied how differences in plant community composition, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and available soil N associated with Russian olive presence are conditioned by local environmental variation within a western U.S. riparian ecosystem. In four sites along the South Fork of the Republican River in Colorado, we established 200 pairs of plots (underneath and apart from Russian olive) to measure the effects of invasion across the ecosystem. We used a series of a priori mixed models to identify environmental variables that altered the effects of Russian olive. For all response variables, models that included the interaction of environmental characteristics, such as presence/absence of an existing cottonwood canopy, with the presence/absence of Russian olive canopy were stronger candidate models than those that just included Russian olive canopy presence as a factor. Compared with reference plots outside of Russian olive canopy, plots underneath Russian olive had higher relative exotic cover (exotic/total cover), lower perennial C4 grass cover, and higher perennial forb cover. These effects were reduced, however, in the presence of a cottonwood canopy. As expected, Russian olive was associated with reduced PAR and increased N, but these effects were reduced under cottonwood canopy. Our results demonstrate that local abiotic and biotic environmental factors condition the effects of Russian olive within a heterogeneous riparian ecosystem and suggest that management efforts should be focused in open areas where Russian olive impacts are strongest.

Spatial heterogeneity of the relationships between environmental characteristics and active commuting: towards a locally varying social ecological model.

PubMed

Feuillet, Thierry; Charreire, Hélène; Menai, Mehdi; Salze, Paul; Simon, Chantal; Dugas, Julien; Hercberg, Serge; Andreeva, Valentina A; Enaux, Christophe; Weber, Christiane; Oppert, Jean-Michel

2015-03-25

According to the social ecological model of health-related behaviors, it is now well accepted that environmental factors influence habitual physical activity. Most previous studies on physical activity determinants have assumed spatial homogeneity across the study area, i.e. that the association between the environment and physical activity is the same whatever the location. The main novelty of our study was to explore geographical variation in the relationships between active commuting (walking and cycling to/from work) and residential environmental characteristics. 4,164 adults from the ongoing Nutrinet-Santé web-cohort, residing in and around Paris, France, were studied using a geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model. Objective environmental variables, including both the built and the socio-economic characteristics around the place of residence of individuals, were assessed by GIS-based measures. Perceived environmental factors (index including safety, aesthetics, and pollution) were reported by questionnaires. Our results show that the influence of the overall neighborhood environment appeared to be more pronounced in the suburban southern part of the study area (Val-de-Marne) compared to Paris inner city, whereas more complex patterns were found elsewhere. Active commuting was positively associated with the built environment only in the southern and northeastern parts of the study area, whereas positive associations with the socio-economic environment were found only in some specific locations in the southern and northern parts of the study area. Similar local variations were observed for the perceived environmental variables. These results suggest that: (i) when applied to active commuting, the social ecological conceptual framework should be locally nuanced, and (ii) local rather than global targeting of public health policies might be more efficient in promoting active commuting.

Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali

PubMed Central

Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

2009-01-01

Background The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models. Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. Methods A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data. The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia. Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. Results The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]). The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error parameters have shown the smallest values for a monthly model of environmental changes. Conclusion Remote-sensed data were coupled with field study data in order to drive a malaria transmission model. Several studies have shown that the NDVI presents significant correlations with climate variables, such as precipitations particularly in Sudanese savannah environments. Non-linear model combining environmental variables, predisposition factors and transmission pattern can be used for community level risk evaluation. PMID:19361335

Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali.

PubMed

Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A Lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

2009-04-10

The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models.Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data.The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia.Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]).The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error parameters have shown the smallest values for a monthly model of environmental changes. Remote-sensed data were coupled with field study data in order to drive a malaria transmission model. Several studies have shown that the NDVI presents significant correlations with climate variables, such as precipitations particularly in Sudanese savannah environments. Non-linear model combining environmental variables, predisposition factors and transmission pattern can be used for community level risk evaluation.

Contribution of formative research to design an environmental program for obesity prevention in schools in Mexico City.

PubMed

Bonvecchio, Anabelle; Théodore, Florence L; Safdie, Margarita; Duque, Tiffany; Villanueva, María Ángeles; Torres, Catalina; Rivera, Juan

2014-01-01

This paper describes the methods and key findings of formative research conducted to design a school-based program for obesity prevention. Formative research was based on the ecological model and the principles of social marketing. A mixed method approach was used. Qualitative (direct observation, indepth interviews, focus group discussions and photo-voice) and quantitative (closed ended surveys, checklists, anthropometry) methods were employed. Formative research key findings, including barriers by levels of the ecological model, were used for designing a program including environmental strategies to discourage the consumption of energy dense foods and sugar beverages. Formative research was fundamental to developing a context specific obesity prevention program in schools that seeks environment modification and behavior change.

The Development of Environmental Barrier Coating Systems for SiC-SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites: Environment Effects on the Creep and Fatigue Resistance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Dongming; Ghosn, Louis J.

2014-01-01

Topics covered include: Environmental barrier coating system development: needs, challenges and limitations; Advanced environmental barrier coating systems (EBCs) for CMC airfoils and combustors; NASA EBC systems and material system evolutions, Current turbine and combustor EBC coating emphases, Advanced development, processing, testing and modeling, EBC and EBC bond coats: recent advances; Design tool and life prediction of coated CMC components; Advanced CMC-EBC rig demonstrations; Summary and future directions.

Mortality and economic instability: detailed analyses for Britain and comparative analyses for selected industrialized countries.

PubMed

Brenner, M H

1983-01-01

This paper discusses a first-stage analysis of the link of unemployment rates, as well as other economic, social and environmental health risk factors, to mortality rates in postwar Britain. The results presented represent part of an international study of the impact of economic change on mortality patterns in industrialized countries. The mortality patterns examined include total and infant mortality and (by cause) cardiovascular (total), cerebrovascular and heart disease, cirrhosis of the liver, and suicide, homicide and motor vehicle accidents. Among the most prominent factors that beneficially influence postwar mortality patterns in England/Wales and Scotland are economic growth and stability and health service availability. A principal detrimental factor to health is a high rate of unemployment. Additional factors that have an adverse influence on mortality rates are cigarette consumption and heavy alcohol use and unusually cold winter temperatures (especially in Scotland). The model of mortality that includes both economic changes and behavioral and environmental risk factors was successfully applied to infant mortality rates in the interwar period. In addition, the "simple" economic change model of mortality (using only economic indicators) was applied to other industrialized countries. In Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Sweden, the simple version of the economic change model could be successfully applied only if the analysis was begun before World War II; for analysis beginning in the postwar era, the more sophisticated economic change model, including behavioral and environmental risk factors, was required. In France, West Germany, Italy, and Spain, by contrast, some success was achieved using the simple economic change model.

Environmental fog/rain visual display system for aircraft simulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chase, W. D. (Inventor)

1982-01-01

An environmental fog/rain visual display system for aircraft simulators is described. The electronic elements of the system include a real time digital computer, a caligraphic color display which simulates landing lights of selective intensity, and a color television camera for producing a moving color display of the airport runway as depicted on a model terrain board. The mechanical simulation elements of the system include an environmental chamber which can produce natural fog, nonhomogeneous fog, rain and fog combined, or rain only. A pilot looking through the aircraft wind screen will look through the fog and/or rain generated in the environmental chamber onto a viewing screen with the simulated color image of the airport runway thereon, and observe a very real simulation of actual conditions of a runway as it would appear through actual fog and/or rain.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Statistics Observational Data Processing Data Assimilation Monsoon Desk Model Transition Seminars Seminar The Mesoscale Modeling Branch conducts a program of research and development in support of the prediction. This research and development includes mesoscale four-dimensional data assimilation of domestic

Atmospheric, climatic and environmental research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Broecker, Wallace S.; Gornitz, Vivien M.

1992-01-01

Work performed on the three tasks during the report period is summarized. The climate and atmospheric modeling studies included work on climate model development and applications, paleoclimate studies, climate change applications, and SAGE II. Climate applications of Earth and planetary observations included studies on cloud climatology and planetary studies. Studies on the chemistry of the Earth and the environment are briefly described. Publications based on the above research are listed; two of these papers are included in the appendices.

Estimating the probability of an extinction or major outbreak for an environmentally transmitted infectious disease.

PubMed

Lahodny, G E; Gautam, R; Ivanek, R

2015-01-01

Indirect transmission through the environment, pathogen shedding by infectious hosts, replication of free-living pathogens within the environment, and environmental decontamination are suspected to play important roles in the spread and control of environmentally transmitted infectious diseases. To account for these factors, the classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible epidemic model is modified to include a compartment representing the amount of free-living pathogen within the environment. The model accounts for host demography, direct and indirect transmission, replication of free-living pathogens in the environment, and removal of free-living pathogens by natural death or environmental decontamination. Based on the assumptions of the deterministic model, a continuous-time Markov chain model is developed. An estimate for the probability of disease extinction or a major outbreak is obtained by approximating the Markov chain with a multitype branching process. Numerical simulations illustrate important differences between the deterministic and stochastic counterparts, relevant for outbreak prevention, that depend on indirect transmission, pathogen shedding by infectious hosts, replication of free-living pathogens, and environmental decontamination. The probability of a major outbreak is computed for salmonellosis in a herd of dairy cattle as well as cholera in a human population. An explicit expression for the probability of disease extinction or a major outbreak in terms of the model parameters is obtained for systems with no direct transmission or replication of free-living pathogens.

The relative roles of environment, history and local dispersal in controlling the distributions of common tree and shrub species in a tropical forest landscape, Panama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Svenning, J.-C.; Engelbrecht, B.M.J.; Kinner, D.A.; Kursar, T.A.; Stallard, R.F.; Wright, S.J.

2006-01-01

We used regression models and information-theoretic model selection to assess the relative importance of environment, local dispersal and historical contingency as controls of the distributions of 26 common plant species in tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We censused eighty-eight 0.09-ha plots scattered across the landscape. Environmental control, local dispersal and historical contingency were represented by environmental variables (soil moisture, slope, soil type, distance to shore, old-forest presence), a spatial autoregressive parameter (??), and four spatial trend variables, respectively. We built regression models, representing all combinations of the three hypotheses, for each species. The probability that the best model included the environmental variables, spatial trend variables and ?? averaged 33%, 64% and 50% across the study species, respectively. The environmental variables, spatial trend variables, ??, and a simple intercept model received the strongest support for 4, 15, 5 and 2 species, respectively. Comparing the model results to information on species traits showed that species with strong spatial trends produced few and heavy diaspores, while species with strong soil moisture relationships were particularly drought-sensitive. In conclusion, history and local dispersal appeared to be the dominant controls of the distributions of common plant species on BCI. Copyright ?? 2006 Cambridge University Press.

Global Environmental Multiscale model - a platform for integrated environmental predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaminski, Jacek W.; Struzewska, Joanna; Neary, Lori; Dearden, Frank

2017-04-01

The Global Environmental Multiscale model was developed by the Government of Canada as an operational weather prediction model in the mid-1990s. Subsequently, it was used as the host meteorological model for an on-line implementation of air quality chemistry and aerosols from global to the meso-gamma scale. Further model developments led to the vertical extension of the modelling domain to include stratospheric chemistry, aerosols, and formation of polar stratospheric clouds. In parallel, the modelling platform was used for planetary applications where dynamical, radiative transfer and chemical processes in the atmosphere of Mars were successfully simulated. Undoubtedly, the developed modelling platform can be classified as an example capable of the seamless and coupled modelling of the dynamics and chemistry of planetary atmospheres. We will present modelling results for global, regional, and local air quality episodes and the long-term air quality trends. Upper troposphere and lower stratosphere modelling results will be presented in terms of climate change and subsonic aviation emissions modelling. Model results for the atmosphere of Mars will be presented in the context of the 2016 ExoMars mission and the anticipated observations from the NOMAD instrument. Also, we will present plans and the design to extend the GEM model to the F region with further coupling with a magnetospheric model that extends to 15 Re.

eDNAoccupancy: An R package for multi-scale occupancy modeling of environmental DNA data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert; Erickson, Richard A.

2017-01-01

In this article we describe eDNAoccupancy, an R package for fitting Bayesian, multi-scale occupancy models. These models are appropriate for occupancy surveys that include three, nested levels of sampling: primary sample units within a study area, secondary sample units collected from each primary unit, and replicates of each secondary sample unit. This design is commonly used in occupancy surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA). eDNAoccupancy allows users to specify and fit multi-scale occupancy models with or without covariates, to estimate posterior summaries of occurrence and detection probabilities, and to compare different models using Bayesian model-selection criteria. We illustrate these features by analyzing two published data sets: eDNA surveys of a fungal pathogen of amphibians and eDNA surveys of an endangered fish species.

Lysimetric evaluation of the APEX Model to simulate daily ET for irrigated crops in the Texas High Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The NTT (Nutrient Tracking Tool) was designed to provide an opportunity for all users, including producers, to simulate the complex models, such as APEX (Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender) and associated required databases. The APEX model currently nested within NTT provides estimates of th...

Comparison of AERMOD and WindTrax dispersion models in determining PM10 emission rates from beef cattle feedlots

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Reverse dispersion modeling has been used to determine air emission fluxes from ground-level area sources, including open-lot beef cattle feedlots. This research compared AERMOD, a Gaussian-based and currently the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) preferred regulatory dispersion model, and ...

Evaluation of High-Throughput Chemical Exposure Models via Analysis of Matched Environmental and Biological Media Measurements

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA, under its ExpoCast program, is developing high-throughput near-field modeling methods to estimate human chemical exposure and to provide real-world context to high-throughput screening (HTS) hazard data. These novel modeling methods include reverse methods to infer ...

Fuel consumption models for pine flatwoods fuel types in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

Clinton S. Wright

2013-01-01

Modeling fire effects, including terrestrial and atmospheric carbon fluxes and pollutant emissions during wildland fires, requires accurate predictions of fuel consumption. Empirical models were developed for predicting fuel consumption from fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires in pine flatwoods ecosystems in the southeastern...

Development of JPSS VIIRS Global Gridded Vegetation Index products for NOAA NCEP Environmental Modeling Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas, Marco; Miura, Tomoaki; Csiszar, Ivan; Zheng, Weizhong; Wu, Yihua; Ek, Michael

2017-04-01

The first Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) mission, the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite, was successfully launched in October, 2011, and it will be followed by JPSS-1, slated for launch in 2017. JPSS provides operational continuity of satellite-based observations and products for NOAA's Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES). Vegetation products derived from satellite measurements are used for weather forecasting, land modeling, climate research, and monitoring the environment including drought, the health of ecosystems, crop monitoring and forest fires. The operationally produced S-NPP VIIRS Vegetation Index (VI) Environmental Data Record (EDR) includes two vegetation indices: the Top of the Atmosphere (TOA) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Top of the Canopy (TOC) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). For JPSS-1, the S-NPP Vegetation Index EDR algorithm has been updated to include the TOC NDV. The current JPSS operational VI products are generated in granule style at 375 meter resolution at nadir, but these products in granule format cannot be ingested into NOAA operational monitoring and decision making systems. For that reason, the NOAA JPSS Land Team is developing a new global gridded Vegetation Index (VI) product suite for operational use by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The new global gridded VIs will be used in the Multi-Physics (MP) version of the Noah land surface model (Noah-MP) in NCEP NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) for plant growth and data assimilation and to describe vegetation coverage and density in order to model the correct surface energy partition. The new VI 4km resolution global gridded products (TOA NDVI, TOC NDVI and TOC EVI) are being designed to meet the needs of directly ingesting vegetation index variables without the need to develop local gridding and compositing procedures. These VI products will be consistent with the already operational SNPP VIIRS Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) global gridded 4km resolution. The ultimate goal is a global consistent set of global gridded land products at 1-km resolution to enable consistent use of the products in the full suite of global and regional NCEP land models. The new JPSS vegetation products system is scheduled to transition to operations in the fall of 2017.

Response of benthic algae to environmental gradients in an agriculturally dominated landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munn, M.D.; Black, R.W.; Gruber, S.J.

2002-01-01

Benthic algal communities were assessed in an agriculturally dominated landscape in the Central Columbia Plateau, Washington, to determine which environmental variables best explained species distributions, and whether algae species optima models were useful in predicting specific water-quality parameters. Land uses in the study area included forest, range, urban, and agriculture. Most of the streams in this region can be characterized as open-channel systems influenced by intensive dryland (nonirrigated) and irrigated agriculture. Algal communities in forested streams were dominated by blue-green algae, with communities in urban and range streams dominated by diatoms. The predominance of either blue-greens or diatoms in agricultural streams varied greatly depending on the specific site. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) indicated a strong gradient effect of several key environmental variables on benthic algal community composition. Conductivity and % agriculture were the dominant explanatory variables when all sites (n = 24) were included in the CCA; water velocity replaced conductivity when the CCA included only agricultural and urban sites. Other significant explanatory variables included dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), orthophosphate (OP), discharge, and precipitation. Regression and calibration models accurately predicted conductivity based on benthic algal communities, with OP having slightly lower predictability. The model for DIN was poor, and therefore may be less useful in this system. Thirty-four algal taxa were identified as potential indicators of conductivity and nutrient conditions, with most indicators being diatoms except for the blue-greens Anabaenasp. and Lyngbya sp.

Guidance for modeling causes and effects in environmental problem solving

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armour, Carl L.; Williamson, Samuel C.

1988-01-01

Environmental problems are difficult to solve because their causes and effects are not easily understood. When attempts are made to analyze causes and effects, the principal challenge is organization of information into a framework that is logical, technically defensible, and easy to understand and communicate. When decisionmakers attempt to solve complex problems before an adequate cause and effect analysis is performed there are serious risks. These risks include: greater reliance on subjective reasoning, lessened chance for scoping an effective problem solving approach, impaired recognition of the need for supplemental information to attain understanding, increased chance for making unsound decisions, and lessened chance for gaining approval and financial support for a program/ Cause and effect relationships can be modeled. This type of modeling has been applied to various environmental problems, including cumulative impact assessment (Dames and Moore 1981; Meehan and Weber 1985; Williamson et al. 1987; Raley et al. 1988) and evaluation of effects of quarrying (Sheate 1986). This guidance for field users was written because of the current interest in documenting cause-effect logic as a part of ecological problem solving. Principal literature sources relating to the modeling approach are: Riggs and Inouye (1975a, b), Erickson (1981), and United States Office of Personnel Management (1986).

40 CFR 60.1595 - What must I include in the notifications of achievement of my increments of progress?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) STANDARDS OF PERFORMANCE FOR NEW STATIONARY... or Before August 30, 1999 Model Rule-Increments of Progress § 60.1595 What must I include in the...

Environmental preferences of tuna and non-tuna species associated with drifting fish aggregating devices (DFADs) in the Atlantic Ocean, ascertained through fishers' echo-sounder buoys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Jon; Moreno, Gala; Lennert-Cody, Cleridy; Maunder, Mark; Sancristobal, Igor; Caballero, Ainhoa; Dagorn, Laurent

2017-06-01

Understanding the relationship between environmental variables and pelagic species concentrations and dynamics is helpful to improve fishery management, especially in a changing environment. Drifting fish aggregating device (DFAD)-associated tuna and non-tuna biomass data from the fishers' echo-sounder buoys operating in the Atlantic Ocean have been modelled as functions of oceanographic (Sea Surface Temperature, Chlorophyll-a, Salinity, Sea Level Anomaly, Thermocline depth and gradient, Geostrophic current, Total Current, Depth) and DFAD variables (DFAD speed, bearing and soak time) using Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). Biological interaction (presence of non-tuna species at DFADs) was also included in the tuna model, and found to be significant at this time scale. All variables were included in the analyses but only some of them were highly significant, and variable significance differed among fish groups. In general, most of the fish biomass distribution was explained by the ocean productivity and DFAD-variables. Indeed, this study revealed different environmental preferences for tunas and non-tuna species and suggested the existence of active habitat selection. This improved assessment of environmental and DFAD effects on tuna and non-tuna catchability in the purse seine tuna fishery will contribute to transfer of better scientific advice to regional tuna commissions for the management and conservation of exploited resources.

Pesticides: an important but underused model for the environmental health sciences.

PubMed Central

Hodgson, E; Levi, P E

1996-01-01

Pesticides are high-volume, widely used, environmental chemicals and there is continuous debate concerning their possible role in many chronic human health effects. Because of their known structures, known rates of application, and the presence of a large occupationally exposed population, they are not only important in their own right but are ideal models for the effects of environmental chemicals on the population in general. For reasons that are not always clear, this potential has not been realized. These exposed populations represent an underused asset in the study of the human health effects of environmental contaminants. Chronic effects thought to involve pesticides include carcinogenesis, neurotoxicity, and reproductive and development effects. In this paper we attempt to summarize this concern and, relying to a large extent on studies in our own laboratory, to indicate the importance and present status of studies of the mammalian metabolism of pesticides and indicate the need for further use of this model. Aspects considered include the role of pesticides as substrates for xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes such as cytochrome P450 and the flavin-containing monooxygenase and their role as inducers or inhibitors of metabolic enzymes. The interaction of pesticides with complex multienzyme pathways, the role of biological characteristics, particularly gender, in pesticide metabolism, and the special role of pesticides at portals of entry and in target tissues are also considered. PMID:8722114

Fish Oncology: Diseases, Diagnostics, and Therapeutics.

PubMed

Vergneau-Grosset, Claire; Nadeau, Marie-Eve; Groff, Joseph M

2017-01-01

The scientific literature contains a wealth of information concerning spontaneous fish neoplasms, although ornamental fish oncology is still in its infancy. The occurrence of fish neoplasms has often been associated with oncogenic viruses and environmental insults, making them useful markers for environmental contaminants. The use of fish, including zebrafish, as models of human carcinogenesis has been developed and knowledge gained from these models may also be applied to ornamental fish, although more studies are required. This review summarizes information available about fish oncology pertaining to veterinary clinicians. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing risks and preventing disease from environmental chemicals.

PubMed

Dunnette, D A

1989-01-01

In the last 25 years there has been considerable concern expressed about the extent to which chemical agents in the ambient and work environments are contributing to the causation of disease. This concern is a logical extension of our increased knowledge of the real and potential effects of environmental chemicals and the methodological difficulties in applying new knowledge that could help prevent environmentally induced disease. Chemical risk assessment offers an approach to estimating risks and involves consideration of relevant information including identification of chemical hazards, evaluation of the dose-response relationship, estimation of exposure and finally, risk characterization. Particularly significant uncertainties which are inherent in use of this and other risk models include animal-human and low dose-high dose extrapolation and estimation of exposure. Community public health risks from exposure to environmental chemicals appear to be small relative to other public health risks based on information related to cancer trends, dietary intake of synthetic chemicals, assessment data on substances such as DDT and "dioxin," public health effects of hazardous waste sites and contextual considerations. Because of inherent uncertainty in the chemical risk assessment process, however, we need to apply what methods are available in our efforts to prevent disease induced by environmental chemicals. There are a number of societal strategies which can contribute to overall reduction of risk from environmental chemicals. These include acquisition of information on environmental risk including toxicity, intensity and extensity of exposure, biological monitoring, disease surveillance, improvement in epidemiological methods, control of environmental chemical exposures, and dissemination of hazardous chemical information. Responsible environmental risk communication and information transfer appear to be among the most important of the available strategies for preventing disease induced by chemicals in the environment.

Forecasting the Environmental Impacts of New Energetic Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-30

Quantitative structure- activity relationships for chemical reductions of organic contaminants. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 22(8): 1733-1742. QSARs ...activity relationships [ QSARs ]) and the use of these properties to predict the chemical?s fate with multimedia assessment models. SERDP has recently...has several parts, including the prediction of chemical properties (e.g., with quantitative structure-activity relationships [ QSARs ]) and the use of

Narcocultura: A Threat to Mexican National Security?

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-01

Colombian model Juliana Sossa Toro, a women romantically involved with JJ who shot soccer player Salvador Cabanas. Bloggers took advantage of her...including the political, the economic, the societal, and the environmental .184 Politicization and securitization are processes by which any public...One element of a criminal and spiritual insurgency is that it uses tools for social and environmental modification, rather than the traditional

Education for Effective Resource Protection and Use. [Proceedings of the] National Conservation Education Association Conference (22nd, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, August 17-20, 1975)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1975

These proceedings present transcripts of the speeches relating environmental education to the forest products industry, health education, urban forestry, and natural history museums. Other speeches include the Florida model of environmental education, designing visual presentations, stress in natural and man-made environments, energetics, and…

Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States.

PubMed

Tessum, Christopher W; Hill, Jason D; Marshall, Julian D

2014-12-30

Commonly considered strategies for reducing the environmental impact of light-duty transportation include using alternative fuels and improving vehicle fuel economy. We evaluate the air quality-related human health impacts of 10 such options, including the use of liquid biofuels, diesel, and compressed natural gas (CNG) in internal combustion engines; the use of electricity from a range of conventional and renewable sources to power electric vehicles (EVs); and the use of hybrid EV technology. Our approach combines spatially, temporally, and chemically detailed life cycle emission inventories; comprehensive, fine-scale state-of-the-science chemical transport modeling; and exposure, concentration-response, and economic health impact modeling for ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We find that powering vehicles with corn ethanol or with coal-based or "grid average" electricity increases monetized environmental health impacts by 80% or more relative to using conventional gasoline. Conversely, EVs powered by low-emitting electricity from natural gas, wind, water, or solar power reduce environmental health impacts by 50% or more. Consideration of potential climate change impacts alongside the human health outcomes described here further reinforces the environmental preferability of EVs powered by low-emitting electricity relative to gasoline vehicles.

Isotope effects in the evaporation of water: a status report of the Craig-Gordon model.

PubMed

Horita, Juske; Rozanski, Kazimierz; Cohen, Shabtai

2008-03-01

The Craig-Gordon model (C-G model) [H. Craig, L.I. Gordon. Deuterium and oxygen 18 variations in the ocean and the marine atmosphere. In Stable Isotopes in Oceanographic Studies and Paleotemperatures, E. Tongiorgi (Ed.), pp. 9-130, Laboratorio di Geologia Nucleare, Pisa (1965).] has been synonymous with the isotope effects associated with the evaporation of water from surface waters, soils, and vegetations, which in turn constitutes a critical component of the global water cycle. On the occasion of the four decades of its successful applications to isotope geochemistry and hydrology, an attempt is made to: (a) examine its physical background within the framework of modern evaporation models, (b) evaluate our current knowledge of the environmental parameters of the C-G model, and (c) comment on a general strategy for the use of these parameters in field applications. Despite its simplistic representation of evaporation processes at the water-air interface, the C-G model appears to be adequate to provide the isotopic composition of the evaporation flux. This is largely due to its nature for representing isotopic compositions (a ratio of two fluxes of different isotopic water molecules) under the same environmental conditions. Among many environmental parameters that are included in the C-G model, accurate description and calculations are still problematic of the kinetic isotope effects that occur in a diffusion-dominated thin layer of air next to the water-air interface. In field applications, it is of importance to accurately evaluate several environmental parameters, particularly the relative humidity and isotopic compositions of the 'free-atmosphere', for a system under investigation over a given time-scale of interest (e.g., hourly to daily to seasonally). With a growing interest in the studies of water cycles of different spatial and temporal scales, including paleoclimate and water resource studies, the importance and utility of the C-G model is also likely to grow in the future.

Techniques to Access Databases and Integrate Data for Hydrologic Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whelan, Gene; Tenney, Nathan D.; Pelton, Mitchell A.

2009-06-17

This document addresses techniques to access and integrate data for defining site-specific conditions and behaviors associated with ground-water and surface-water radionuclide transport applicable to U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission reviews. Environmental models typically require input data from multiple internal and external sources that may include, but are not limited to, stream and rainfall gage data, meteorological data, hydrogeological data, habitat data, and biological data. These data may be retrieved from a variety of organizations (e.g., federal, state, and regional) and source types (e.g., HTTP, FTP, and databases). Available data sources relevant to hydrologic analyses for reactor licensing are identified and reviewed.more » The data sources described can be useful to define model inputs and parameters, including site features (e.g., watershed boundaries, stream locations, reservoirs, site topography), site properties (e.g., surface conditions, subsurface hydraulic properties, water quality), and site boundary conditions, input forcings, and extreme events (e.g., stream discharge, lake levels, precipitation, recharge, flood and drought characteristics). Available software tools for accessing established databases, retrieving the data, and integrating it with models were identified and reviewed. The emphasis in this review was on existing software products with minimal required modifications to enable their use with the FRAMES modeling framework. The ability of four of these tools to access and retrieve the identified data sources was reviewed. These four software tools were the Hydrologic Data Acquisition and Processing System (HDAPS), Integrated Water Resources Modeling System (IWRMS) External Data Harvester, Data for Environmental Modeling Environmental Data Download Tool (D4EM EDDT), and the FRAMES Internet Database Tools. The IWRMS External Data Harvester and the D4EM EDDT were identified as the most promising tools based on their ability to access and retrieve the required data, and their ability to integrate the data into environmental models using the FRAMES environment.« less

Equation-free mechanistic ecosystem forecasting using empirical dynamic modeling

PubMed Central

Ye, Hao; Beamish, Richard J.; Glaser, Sarah M.; Grant, Sue C. H.; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Richards, Laura J.; Schnute, Jon T.; Sugihara, George

2015-01-01

It is well known that current equilibrium-based models fall short as predictive descriptions of natural ecosystems, and particularly of fisheries systems that exhibit nonlinear dynamics. For example, model parameters assumed to be fixed constants may actually vary in time, models may fit well to existing data but lack out-of-sample predictive skill, and key driving variables may be misidentified due to transient (mirage) correlations that are common in nonlinear systems. With these frailties, it is somewhat surprising that static equilibrium models continue to be widely used. Here, we examine empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) as an alternative to imposed model equations and that accommodates both nonequilibrium dynamics and nonlinearity. Using time series from nine stocks of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) from the Fraser River system in British Columbia, Canada, we perform, for the the first time to our knowledge, real-data comparison of contemporary fisheries models with equivalent EDM formulations that explicitly use spawning stock and environmental variables to forecast recruitment. We find that EDM models produce more accurate and precise forecasts, and unlike extensions of the classic Ricker spawner–recruit equation, they show significant improvements when environmental factors are included. Our analysis demonstrates the strategic utility of EDM for incorporating environmental influences into fisheries forecasts and, more generally, for providing insight into how environmental factors can operate in forecast models, thus paving the way for equation-free mechanistic forecasting to be applied in management contexts. PMID:25733874

Advanced Computational Framework for Environmental Management ZEM, Version 1.x

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vesselinov, Velimir V.; O'Malley, Daniel; Pandey, Sachin

2016-11-04

Typically environmental management problems require analysis of large and complex data sets originating from concurrent data streams with different data collection frequencies and pedigree. These big data sets require on-the-fly integration into a series of models with different complexity for various types of model analyses where the data are applied as soft and hard model constraints. This is needed to provide fast iterative model analyses based on the latest available data to guide decision-making. Furthermore, the data and model are associated with uncertainties. The uncertainties are probabilistic (e.g. measurement errors) and non-probabilistic (unknowns, e.g. alternative conceptual models characterizing site conditions).more » To address all of these issues, we have developed an integrated framework for real-time data and model analyses for environmental decision-making called ZEM. The framework allows for seamless and on-the-fly integration of data and modeling results for robust and scientifically-defensible decision-making applying advanced decision analyses tools such as Bayesian- Information-Gap Decision Theory (BIG-DT). The framework also includes advanced methods for optimization that are capable of dealing with a large number of unknown model parameters, and surrogate (reduced order) modeling capabilities based on support vector regression techniques. The framework is coded in Julia, a state-of-the-art high-performance programing language (http://julialang.org). The ZEM framework is open-source and can be applied to any environmental management site. The framework will be open-source and released under GPL V3 license.« less

Development of mathematical models of environmental physiology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolwijk, J. A. J.; Mitchell, J. W.; Nadel, E. R.

1971-01-01

Selected articles concerned with mathematical or simulation models of human thermoregulation are presented. The articles presented include: (1) development and use of simulation models in medicine, (2) model of cardio-vascular adjustments during exercise, (3) effective temperature scale based on simple model of human physiological regulatory response, (4) behavioral approach to thermoregulatory set point during exercise, and (5) importance of skin temperature in sweat regulation.

Tethered Satellites as Enabling Platforms for an Operational Space Weather Monitoring System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krause, L. Habash; Gilchrist, B. E.; Bilen, S.; Owens, J.; Voronka, N.; Furhop, K.

2013-01-01

Space weather nowcasting and forecasting models require assimilation of near-real time (NRT) space environment data to improve the precision and accuracy of operational products. Typically, these models begin with a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g. via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative physics-based forward-prediction calculations. The issue of required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models is a complex one, and we do not address that with this poster. Instead, we present some examples of how tethered satellites can be used to address the shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include very long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements will be presented for each space weather parameter considered in this study.

The economic value of the flow regulation environmental service in a Brazilian urban watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, Guilherme F.; de Souza, Verônica B. F. S.; Moraes, Natália V.

2017-11-01

Urban flood management have often focused either on the capacity expansion of drainage systems or on artificial detention storage. While flood control should take part early on urban planning, not enough is known to guide such plans and provide incentive to land use decisions that minimize the vulnerability to localized floods. In this paper, we offer a broader perspective on flood protection, by treating the original hydrologic flow regulation as an environmental service, and exploring how the value of this environmental service drives economic land use decisions that convert original (permeable) land into urbanized (impermeable). We investigate the relationship between land use decisions and their hydrologic consequences explicitly, and use this relationship to simulate resulting land use scenarios depending on the value attached to the environmental service of flow regulation. Rainfall-runoff simulation model results are combined to an optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming approach to model economic land use decisions. The objective function maximizes the total expected land use benefit in an urban area, considering the opportunity cost of permeable areas in the first stage and the resulting loss of the environmental service of flow regulation on the second stage, under several probable hydrological events. A watershed in the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil, is used to demonstrate the approach. Different values attached to the environmental service were tested, from zero to higher than the opportunity cost of land, and artificial detention infrastructure was included to calculate the resulting land use change and the loss in the environmental service value. Results indicate that by valuing the environmental service loss and discounting it from the economic benefits of land use, alternative solutions to land use are found, with decreased peak flows and lower flood frequency. Combined solutions including structural and non-structural techniques provide more cost effective results, avoiding both the depletion of the environmental service and the high opportunity cost associated to valuable commercial urban areas. Urban development under such premises will be more resilient and adapted to local flooding, instead of relying on increasingly expensive infrastructure.

Representing Carbon Capture and Storage in MARKAL EPAUS9r16a

EPA Science Inventory

Energy system models are used to evaluate the energy and environmental implications of alternative pathways for producing and using energy. Many such models include representations of the costs and capacities of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). In this presentation, Dan Lo...

Systematic Identification of Stakeholders for Engagement with Systems Modeling Efforts in the Snohomish Basin, Washington, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Even as stakeholder engagement in systems dynamic modeling efforts is increasingly promoted, the mechanisms for identifying which stakeholders should be included are rarely documented. Accordingly, for an Environmental Protection Agency’s Triple Value Simulation (3VS) mode...

Simulation Modeling of Lakes in Undergraduate and Graduate Classrooms Increases Comprehension of Climate Change Concepts and Experience with Computational Tools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carey, Cayelan C.; Gougis, Rebekka Darner

2017-01-01

Ecosystem modeling is a critically important tool for environmental scientists, yet is rarely taught in undergraduate and graduate classrooms. To address this gap, we developed a teaching module that exposes students to a suite of modeling skills and tools (including computer programming, numerical simulation modeling, and distributed computing)…

[Environmental Guarantees in the Constitution: a new ecological-political model for Costa Rica and the rest of the world].

PubMed

Quesada A, Gabriel

2009-09-01

In the last thirty years significant changes to protect the environment have been introduced in the judicial, administrative and social systems. Costa Rica is a well known international model in the field of sustainable development, and here I present a proposal for adding environmental gaurantees to the Costa Rican Constitution. One of the most important changes in the Costa Rican judicial system has been the introduction of an environmental amendment in the Constitution (Article 50). However, it is still fundamental to introduce a Title of Environmental Guarantees in the Constitution of Costa Rica, with these components: first, the State, the public and the private sector have the duty of defending the right to a safe environment; second, public domain over environmental issues, and third, the use of the environment should be regulated by scientific and technical knowledge. If current efforts succeed, Costa Rica will be the first country in the world to include Environmental Guarantees in its Constitution. This would be an example to other nations.

The 1997 JANNAF Propellant Development and Characterization Subcommittee and Safety and Environmental Protection Subcommittee Joint Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cocchiaro, James E. (Editor); Filliben, Jeff D. (Editor); Watson, Anne H. (Editor)

1997-01-01

In the Propellant Development and Characterization Subcommittee (PDCS) meeting, topics included: the analysis, characterization, and processing of propellants and propellant ingredients; chemical reactivity; liquid propellants; test methods; rheology; surveillance and aging; and process engineering. In the Safety and Environmental Protection Subcommittee (S&EPS) meeting, topics covered included: hydrazine propellant vapor detection methods; toxicity of propellants and propellants; explosives safety; atmospheric modeling and risk assessment of toxic releases; reclamation, disposal, and demilitarization methods; and remediation of explosives or propellant contaminated sites.

Sandia’s Current Energy Conversion module for the Flexible-Mesh Delft3D flow solver v. 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chartand, Chris; Jagers, Bert

The DOE has funded Sandia National Labs (SNL) to develop an open-source modeling tool to guide the design and layout of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) arrays to maximize power production while minimizing environmental effects. This modeling framework simulates flows through and around a MHK arrays while quantifying environmental responses. As an augmented version of the Dutch company, Deltares’s, environmental hydrodynamics code, Delft3D, SNL-Delft3D-CEC-FM includes a new module that simulates energy conversion (momentum withdrawal) by MHK current energy conversion devices with commensurate changes in the turbulent kinetic energy and its dissipation rate. SNL-Delft3D-CEC-FM modified the Delft3D flexible mesh flow solver, DFlowFM.

Operations management in distribution networks within a smart city framework.

PubMed

Cerulli, Raffaele; Dameri, Renata Paola; Sciomachen, Anna

2017-02-20

This article studies a vehicle routing problem with environmental constraints that are motivated by the requirements for sustainable urban transport. The empirical research presents a fleet planning problem that takes into consideration both minimum cost vehicle routes and minimum pollution. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming model and experimentally validated using data collected from a real situation: a grocery company delivering goods ordered via e-channels to customers spread in the urban and metropolitan area of Genoa smart city. The proposed model is a variant of the vehicle routing problem tailored to include environmental issues and street limitations. Its novelty regards also the use of real data instances provided by the B2C grocery company. Managerial implications are the choice of both the routes and the number and type of vehicles. Results show that commercial distribution strategies achieve better results in term of both business and environmental performance, provided the smart mobility goals and constraints are included into the distribution model from the beginning. © The authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

PubMed Central

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-01-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic. PMID:27782171

Comparisons of four categories of waste recycling in China's paper industry based on physical input-output life-cycle assessment model.

PubMed

Liang, Sai; Zhang, Tianzhu; Xu, Yijian

2012-03-01

Waste recycling for paper production is an important component of waste management. This study constructs a physical input-output life-cycle assessment (PIO-LCA) model. The PIO-LCA model is used to investigate environmental impacts of four categories of waste recycling in China's paper industry: crop straws, bagasse, textile wastes and scrap paper. Crop straw recycling and wood utilization for paper production have small total intensity of environmental impacts. Moreover, environmental impacts reduction of crop straw recycling and wood utilization benefits the most from technology development. Thus, using crop straws and wood (including wood wastes) for paper production should be promoted. Technology development has small effects on environmental impacts reduction of bagasse recycling, textile waste recycling and scrap paper recycling. In addition, bagasse recycling and textile waste recycling have big total intensity of environmental impacts. Thus, the development of bagasse recycling and textile waste recycling should be properly limited. Other pathways for reusing bagasse and textile wastes should be explored and evaluated. Moreover, imports of scrap paper should be encouraged to reduce large indirect impacts of scrap paper recycling on domestic environment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling of capillary-driven flow for closed paper-based microfluidic channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Songok, Joel; Toivakka, Martti

2017-06-01

Paper-based microfluidics is an emerging field focused on creating inexpensive devices, with simple fabrication methods for applications in various fields including healthcare, environmental monitoring and veterinary medicine. Understanding the flow of liquid is important in achieving consistent operation of the devices. This paper proposes capillary models to predict flow in paper-based microfluidic channels, which include a flow accelerating hydrophobic top cover. The models, which consider both non-absorbing and absorbing substrates, are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Modified Whole Effluent Toxicity Test to Assess and Decouple Wastewater Effects from Environmental Gradients

PubMed Central

Sauco, Sebastián; Gómez, Julio; Barboza, Francisco R.; Lercari, Diego; Defeo, Omar

2013-01-01

Environmental gradients and wastewater discharges produce aggregated effects on marine populations, obscuring the detection of human impact. Classical assessment methods do not include environmental effects in toxicity tests designs, which could lead to incorrect conclusions. We proposed a modified Whole Effluent Toxicity test (mWET) that includes environmental gradients in addition to effluent dilutions, together with the application of Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to assess and decouple those effects. We tested this approach, analyzing the lethal effects of wastewater on a marine sandy beach bivalve affected by an artificial canal freshwater discharge used for rice crops irrigation. To this end, we compared bivalve mortality between canal water dilutions (CWd) and salinity controls (SC: without canal water). CWd were prepared by diluting the water effluent (sampled during the pesticide application period) with artificial marine water. The salinity gradient was included in the design by achieving the same final salinities in both CWd and SC, allowing us to account for the effects of salinity by including this variable as a random factor in the GLMM. Our approach detected significantly higher mortalities in CWd, indicating potential toxic effects of the effluent discharge. mWET represents an improvement over the internationally standardized WET tests, since it considers environmental variability and uses appropriate statistical analyses. PMID:23755304

Sources of contamination and modelled pollutant trajectories in a Mediterranean harbour (Tarragona, Spain).

PubMed

Mestres, M; Sierra, J P; Mösso, C; Sánchez-Arcilla, A

2010-06-01

The proximity of commercial harbours to residential areas and the growing environmental awareness of society have led most port authorities to include environmental management within their administration plan. Regarding water quality, it is necessary to have the capacity and tools to deal with contamination episodes that may damage marine ecosystems and human health, but also affect the normal functioning of harbours. This paper presents a description of the main pollutant sources in Tarragona Harbour (Spain), and a numerical analysis of several pollution episodes based on the Port Authority's actual environmental concerns. The results show that pollution generated inside the harbour tends to remain confined within the port, whereas it is very likely that oil spills from a nearby monobuoy may affect the neighbouring beaches. The present combination of numerical models proves itself a useful tool to assess the environmental risk associated to harbour activities and potential pollution spills.

Pesticide Environmental Accounting: a method for assessing the external costs of individual pesticide applications.

PubMed

Leach, A W; Mumford, J D

2008-01-01

The Pesticide Environmental Accounting (PEA) tool provides a monetary estimate of environmental and health impacts per hectare-application for any pesticide. The model combines the Environmental Impact Quotient method and a methodology for absolute estimates of external pesticide costs in UK, USA and Germany. For many countries resources are not available for intensive assessments of external pesticide costs. The model converts external costs of a pesticide in the UK, USA and Germany to Mediterranean countries. Economic and policy applications include estimating impacts of pesticide reduction policies or benefits from technologies replacing pesticides, such as sterile insect technique. The system integrates disparate data and approaches into a single logical method. The assumptions in the system provide transparency and consistency but at the cost of some specificity and precision, a reasonable trade-off for a method that provides both comparative estimates of pesticide impacts and area-based assessments of absolute impacts.

Utility of a thermal-based two-source energy balance model for estimating surface fluxes over complex landscapes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Many landscapes are comprised of a variety of vegetation types with different canopy structure, rooting depth, physiological characteristics, including response to environmental stressors, etc. Even in agricultural regions, different management practices, including crop rotations, irrigation schedu...

Beyond "Chalk and Talk": A Model for E-Classroom Design.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coppola, Jean F.; Thomas, Barbara A.

2000-01-01

Describes the efforts at Pace University (New York, NY) to develop and refine electronic classrooms. Topics include technology integration; needs assessment; ergonomics and environmental design issues; small-group instruction for faculty training, including cross-departmental partnerships; student feedback; and faculty feedback. (LRW)

Estimating non-genetic and genetic parameters of pre-weaning growth traits in Raini Cashmere goat.

PubMed

Barazandeh, Arsalan; Moghbeli, Sadrollah Molaei; Vatankhah, Mahmood; Mohammadabadi, Mohammadreza

2012-04-01

Data and pedigree information used in the present study were 3,022 records of kids obtained from the breeding station of Raini goat. The studied traits were birth weight (BW), weaning weight (WW), average daily gain from birth to weaning (ADG) and Kleiber ratio at weaning (KR). The model included the fixed effects of sex of kid, type of birth, age of dam, year of birth, month of birth, and age of kid (days) as covariate that had significant effects, and random effects direct additive genetic, maternal additive genetic, maternal permanent environmental effects and residual. (Co) variance components were estimated using univariate and multivariate analysis by WOMBAT software applying four animal models including and ignoring maternal effects. Likelihood ratio test used to determine the most appropriate models. Heritability (h(a)(2)) estimates for BW, WW, ADG, and KR according to suitable model were 0.12 ± 0.05, 0.08 ± 0.06, 0.10 ± 0.06, and 0.06 ± 0.05, respectively. Estimates of the proportion of maternal permanent environmental effect to phenotypic variance (c(2)) were 0.17 ± 0.03, 0.07 ± 0.03, and 0.07 ± 0.03 for BW, WW, and ADG, respectively. Genetic correlations among traits were positive and ranged from 0.53 (BW-ADG) to 1.00 (WW-ADG, WW-KR, and ADG-KR). The maternal permanent environmental correlations between BW-WW, BW-ADG, and WW-ADG were 0.54, 0.48, and 0.99, respectively. Results indicated that maternal effects, especially maternal permanent environmental effects are an important source of variation in pre-weaning growth trait and ignoring those in the model redound incorrect genetic evaluation of kids.

Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible?

PubMed

Ward, James D; Sutton, Paul C; Werner, Adrian D; Costanza, Robert; Mohr, Steve H; Simmons, Craig T

2016-01-01

The argument that human society can decouple economic growth-defined as growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)-from growth in environmental impacts is appealing. If such decoupling is possible, it means that GDP growth is a sustainable societal goal. Here we show that the decoupling concept can be interpreted using an easily understood model of economic growth and environmental impact. The simple model is compared to historical data and modelled projections to demonstrate that growth in GDP ultimately cannot be decoupled from growth in material and energy use. It is therefore misleading to develop growth-oriented policy around the expectation that decoupling is possible. We also note that GDP is increasingly seen as a poor proxy for societal wellbeing. GDP growth is therefore a questionable societal goal. Society can sustainably improve wellbeing, including the wellbeing of its natural assets, but only by discarding GDP growth as the goal in favor of more comprehensive measures of societal wellbeing.

Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2015-04-01

Spatially explicit epidemiological models are a crucial tool for the prediction of epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. In addition they can provide valuable information about epidemiological processes and allow for the identification of environmental drivers of the disease spread. Most epidemiological models rely on environmental data as inputs. They can either be measured in the field by the means of conventional instruments or using remote sensing techniques to measure suitable proxies of the variables of interest. The later benefit from several advantages over conventional methods, including data availability, which can be an issue especially in developing, and spatial as well as temporal resolution of the data, which is particularly crucial for spatially explicit models. Here we present the case study of a spatially explicit, semi-mechanistic model applied to recurring cholera outbreaks in the Lake Kivu area (Democratic Republic of the Congo). The model describes the cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers. Human mobility and its effect on the disease spread is also taken into account. Several model configurations are tested on a data set of reported cases. The best models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via cross validation. The best performing model accounts for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility.

Maine Tidal Power Initiative: Environmental Impact Protocols For Tidal Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peterson, Michael Leroy; Zydlewski, Gayle Barbin; Xue, Huijie

2014-02-02

The Maine Tidal Power Initiative (MTPI), an interdisciplinary group of engineers, biologists, oceanographers, and social scientists, has been conducting research to evaluate tidal energy resources and better understand the potential effects and impacts of marine hydro-kinetic (MHK) development on the environment and local community. Project efforts include: 1) resource assessment, 2) development of initial device design parameters using scale model tests, 3) baseline environmental studies and monitoring, and 4) human and community responses. This work included in-situ measurement of the environmental and social response to the pre-commercial Turbine Generator Unit (TGU®) developed by Ocean Renewable Power Company (ORPC) as wellmore » as considering the path forward for smaller community scale projects.« less

Determining the drivers of population structure in a highly urbanized landscape to inform conservation planning.

PubMed

Thomassen, Henri A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Semple Delaney, Kathleen; Riley, Seth P D; Serieys, Laurel E K; Pease, Katherine; Wayne, Robert K; Smith, Thomas B

2018-02-01

Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human-dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home-range sizes, and dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative roles of potential barriers, including natural environmental characteristics and an anthropogenic barrier created by a major highway, in shaping genetic variation. The ability to predict genetic variation in our models differed among species: 11-81% of intraspecific genetic variation was explained by environmental variables. Although an anthropogenically induced barrier (a major highway) severely restricted gene flow and movement at broad scales for some species, genetic variation seemed to be primarily driven by natural environmental heterogeneity at a local level. Our results show how assessing environmentally associated variation for multiple species under current and future climate conditions can help identify priority regions for maximizing population persistence under environmental change in urbanized regions. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Design of Epidemia - an Ecohealth Informatics System for Integrated Forecasting of Malaria Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wimberly, M. C.; Bayabil, E.; Beyane, B.; Bishaw, M.; Henebry, G. M.; Lemma, A.; Liu, Y.; Merkord, C. L.; Mihretie, A.; Senay, G. B.; Yalew, W.

2014-12-01

Early warning of the timing and locations of malaria epidemics can facilitate the targeting of resources for prevention and emergency response. In response to this need, we are developing the Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) computer system. The system incorporates software for capturing, processing, and integrating environmental and epidemiological data from multiple sources; data assimilation techniques that continually update models and forecasts; and a web-based interface that makes the resulting information available to public health decision makers. This technology will enable forecasts based on lagged responses to environmental risk factors as well as information about recent trends in malaria cases. Environmental driving variables will include a variety of remote-sensed hydrological indicators. EPIDEMIA will be implemented and tested in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia in collaboration with local stakeholders. We conducted an initial co-design workshop in July 2014 that included environmental scientists, software engineers, and participants from the NGO, academic, and public health sectors in Ethiopia. A prototype of the EPIDEMIA web interface was presented and a requirements analysis was conducted to characterize the main use cases for the public health community, identify the critical data requirements for malaria risk modeling, and develop of a list of baseline features for the public health interface. Several critical system features were identified, including a secure web-based interface for uploading and validating surveillance data; a flexible query system to allow retrieval of environmental and epidemiological data summaries as tables, charts, and maps; and an alert system to provide automatic warnings in response to environmental and epidemiological risk factors for malaria. Future system development will involve a cycle of implementation, training, usability testing, and upgrading. This innovative translational bioinformatics approach will allow us to assess the practical effectiveness of these tools as we continually improve the technologies.

Analysis of an Environmental Exposure Health Questionnaire in a Metropolitan Minority Population Utilizing Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machines

PubMed Central

Chen, Chau-Kuang; Bruce, Michelle; Tyler, Lauren; Brown, Claudine; Garrett, Angelica; Goggins, Susan; Lewis-Polite, Brandy; Weriwoh, Mirabel L; Juarez, Paul D.; Hood, Darryl B.; Skelton, Tyler

2014-01-01

The goal of this study was to analyze a 54-item instrument for assessment of perception of exposure to environmental contaminants within the context of the built environment, or exposome. This exposome was defined in five domains to include 1) home and hobby, 2) school, 3) community, 4) occupation, and 5) exposure history. Interviews were conducted with child-bearing-age minority women at Metro Nashville General Hospital at Meharry Medical College. Data were analyzed utilizing DTReg software for Support Vector Machine (SVM) modeling followed by an SPSS package for a logistic regression model. The target (outcome) variable of interest was respondent's residence by ZIP code. The results demonstrate that the rank order of important variables with respect to SVM modeling versus traditional logistic regression models is almost identical. This is the first study documenting that SVM analysis has discriminate power for determination of higher-ordered spatial relationships on an environmental exposure history questionnaire. PMID:23395953

Zoonotic Transmission of Waterborne Disease: A Mathematical Model.

PubMed

Waters, Edward K; Hamilton, Andrew J; Sidhu, Harvinder S; Sidhu, Leesa A; Dunbar, Michelle

2016-01-01

Waterborne parasites that infect both humans and animals are common causes of diarrhoeal illness, but the relative importance of transmission between humans and animals and vice versa remains poorly understood. Transmission of infection from animals to humans via environmental reservoirs, such as water sources, has attracted attention as a potential source of endemic and epidemic infections, but existing mathematical models of waterborne disease transmission have limitations for studying this phenomenon, as they only consider contamination of environmental reservoirs by humans. This paper develops a mathematical model that represents the transmission of waterborne parasites within and between both animal and human populations. It also improves upon existing models by including animal contamination of water sources explicitly. Linear stability analysis and simulation results, using realistic parameter values to describe Giardia transmission in rural Australia, show that endemic infection of an animal host with zoonotic protozoa can result in endemic infection in human hosts, even in the absence of person-to-person transmission. These results imply that zoonotic transmission via environmental reservoirs is important.

Analysis of an environmental exposure health questionnaire in a metropolitan minority population utilizing logistic regression and Support Vector Machines.

PubMed

Chen, Chau-Kuang; Bruce, Michelle; Tyler, Lauren; Brown, Claudine; Garrett, Angelica; Goggins, Susan; Lewis-Polite, Brandy; Weriwoh, Mirabel L; Juarez, Paul D; Hood, Darryl B; Skelton, Tyler

2013-02-01

The goal of this study was to analyze a 54-item instrument for assessment of perception of exposure to environmental contaminants within the context of the built environment, or exposome. This exposome was defined in five domains to include 1) home and hobby, 2) school, 3) community, 4) occupation, and 5) exposure history. Interviews were conducted with child-bearing-age minority women at Metro Nashville General Hospital at Meharry Medical College. Data were analyzed utilizing DTReg software for Support Vector Machine (SVM) modeling followed by an SPSS package for a logistic regression model. The target (outcome) variable of interest was respondent's residence by ZIP code. The results demonstrate that the rank order of important variables with respect to SVM modeling versus traditional logistic regression models is almost identical. This is the first study documenting that SVM analysis has discriminate power for determination of higher-ordered spatial relationships on an environmental exposure history questionnaire.

Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997–2003

PubMed Central

Gomez-Elipe, Alberto; Otero, Angel; van Herp, Michel; Aguirre-Jaime, Armando

2007-01-01

Background The objective of this work was to develop a model to predict malaria incidence in an area of unstable transmission by studying the association between environmental variables and disease dynamics. Methods The study was carried out in Karuzi, a province in the Burundi highlands, using time series of monthly notifications of malaria cases from local health facilities, data from rain and temperature records, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology, a model showing the relation between monthly notifications of malaria cases and the environmental variables was developed. Results The best forecasting model (R2adj = 82%, p < 0.0001 and 93% forecasting accuracy in the range ± 4 cases per 100 inhabitants) included the NDVI, mean maximum temperature, rainfall and number of malaria cases in the preceding month. Conclusion This model is a simple and useful tool for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of the malaria incidence rate in the study area. PMID:17892540

Genetic and environmental structure of DSM-IV criteria for Antisocial Personality Disorder: a twin study

PubMed Central

Rosenström, Tom; Ystrom, Eivind; Torvik, Fartein Ask; Czajkowski, Nikolai Olavi; Gillespie, Nathan A.; Aggen, Steven H.; Krueger, Robert F.; Kendler, Kenneth S; Reichborn-Kjennerud, Ted

2017-01-01

Results from previous studies on DSM-IV and DSM-5 Antisocial Personality Disorder (ASPD) have suggested that the construct is etiologically multidimensional. To our knowledge, however, the structure of genetic and environmental influences in ASPD has not been examined using an appropriate range of biometric models and diagnostic interviews. The 7 ASPD criteria (section A) were assessed in a population-based sample of 2794 Norwegian twins by a structured interview for DSM-IV personality disorders. Exploratory analyses were conducted at the phenotypic level. Multivariate biometric models, including both independent and common pathways, were compared. A single phenotypic factor was found, and the best-fitting biometric model was a single-factor common pathway model, with common-factor heritability of 51% (95% CI = 40–67%). In other words, both genetic and environmental correlations between the ASPD criteria could be accounted for by a single common latent variable. The findings support the validity of ASPD as a unidimensional diagnostic construct. PMID:28108863

Genetic and Environmental Structure of DSM-IV Criteria for Antisocial Personality Disorder: A Twin Study.

PubMed

Rosenström, Tom; Ystrom, Eivind; Torvik, Fartein Ask; Czajkowski, Nikolai Olavi; Gillespie, Nathan A; Aggen, Steven H; Krueger, Robert F; Kendler, Kenneth S; Reichborn-Kjennerud, Ted

2017-05-01

Results from previous studies on DSM-IV and DSM-5 Antisocial Personality Disorder (ASPD) have suggested that the construct is etiologically multidimensional. To our knowledge, however, the structure of genetic and environmental influences in ASPD has not been examined using an appropriate range of biometric models and diagnostic interviews. The 7 ASPD criteria (section A) were assessed in a population-based sample of 2794 Norwegian twins by a structured interview for DSM-IV personality disorders. Exploratory analyses were conducted at the phenotypic level. Multivariate biometric models, including both independent and common pathways, were compared. A single phenotypic factor was found, and the best-fitting biometric model was a single-factor common pathway model, with common-factor heritability of 51% (95% CI 40-67%). In other words, both genetic and environmental correlations between the ASPD criteria could be accounted for by a single common latent variable. The findings support the validity of ASPD as a unidimensional diagnostic construct.

Breeding value accuracy estimates for growth traits using random regression and multi-trait models in Nelore cattle.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Baldi, F; Mercadante, M E Z; Lobo, R B; Pereira, R J; Albuquerque, L G

2011-06-28

We quantified the potential increase in accuracy of expected breeding value for weights of Nelore cattle, from birth to mature age, using multi-trait and random regression models on Legendre polynomials and B-spline functions. A total of 87,712 weight records from 8144 females were used, recorded every three months from birth to mature age from the Nelore Brazil Program. For random regression analyses, all female weight records from birth to eight years of age (data set I) were considered. From this general data set, a subset was created (data set II), which included only nine weight records: at birth, weaning, 365 and 550 days of age, and 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 years of age. Data set II was analyzed using random regression and multi-trait models. The model of analysis included the contemporary group as fixed effects and age of dam as a linear and quadratic covariable. In the random regression analyses, average growth trends were modeled using a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of age. Residual variances were modeled by a step function with five classes. Legendre polynomials of fourth and sixth order were utilized to model the direct genetic and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, while third-order Legendre polynomials were considered for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. Quadratic polynomials were applied to model all random effects in random regression models on B-spline functions. Direct genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using three segments or five coefficients, and genetic maternal and maternal permanent environmental effects were modeled with one segment or three coefficients in the random regression models on B-spline functions. For both data sets (I and II), animals ranked differently according to expected breeding value obtained by random regression or multi-trait models. With random regression models, the highest gains in accuracy were obtained at ages with a low number of weight records. The results indicate that random regression models provide more accurate expected breeding values than the traditionally finite multi-trait models. Thus, higher genetic responses are expected for beef cattle growth traits by replacing a multi-trait model with random regression models for genetic evaluation. B-spline functions could be applied as an alternative to Legendre polynomials to model covariance functions for weights from birth to mature age.

Integrated environmental monitoring and simulation system for use as a management decision support tool in urban areas.

PubMed

Fatta, D; Naoum, D; Loizidou, M

2002-04-01

Leachates are generated as a result of water or other liquid passing through waste at a landfill site. These contaminated liquids originate from a number of sources, including the water produced during the decomposition of the waste as well as rain-fall which penetrates the waste and dissolves the material with which it comes into contact. The penetration of the rain-water depends on the nature of the landfill (e.g. surface characteristics, type and quantity of vegetation, gradient of layers, etc). The uncontrolled infiltration of leachate into the vadose (unsaturated) zone and finally into the saturated zone (groundwater) is considered to be the most serious environmental impact of a landfill. In the present paper the water flow and the pollutant transport characteristics of the Ano Liosia Landfill site in Athens (Greece) were simulated by creating a model of groundwater flows and contaminant transport. A methodology for the model is presented. The model was then integrated into the Ecosim system which is a prototype funded by the EU, (Directorate General XIII: Telematics and Environment). This is an integrated environmental monitoring and modeling system, which supports the management of environmental planning in urban areas.

General Equilibrium Models: Improving the Microeconomics Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nicholson, Walter; Westhoff, Frank

2009-01-01

General equilibrium models now play important roles in many fields of economics including tax policy, environmental regulation, international trade, and economic development. The intermediate microeconomics classroom has not kept pace with these trends, however. Microeconomics textbooks primarily focus on the insights that can be drawn from the…

Implications of mechanistic modeling of drought effects on growth and competition in forest landscape models

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Arjan M. G. De Bruijn; Brian R. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; J. Thompson

2016-01-01

The incidence of drought is expected to increase worldwide as a factor structuring forested landscapes. Ecophysiological mechanisms are being added to Forest Landscape Models (FLMs) to increase their robustness to the novel environmental conditions of the future (including drought), but their behavior has not been evaluated for mixed temperate forests. We evaluated...

Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, C W

1984-01-01

This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

Geographical patterns in climate and agricultural technology drive soybean productivity in Brazil.

PubMed

Caetano, Jordana Moura; Tessarolo, Geiziane; de Oliveira, Guilherme; Souza, Kelly da Silva E; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Nabout, João Carlos

2018-01-01

The impacts of global climate change have been a worldwide concern for several research areas, including those dealing with resources essential to human well being, such as agriculture, which directly impact economic activities and food security. Here we evaluate the relative effect of climate (as indicated by the Ecological Niche Model-ENM) and agricultural technology on actual soybean productivity in Brazilian municipalities and estimate the future geographic distribution of soybeans using a novel statistical approach allowing the evaluation of partial coefficients in a non-stationary (Geographically Weighted Regression; GWR) model. We found that technology was more important than climate in explaining soybean productivity in Brazil. However, some municipalities are more dependent on environmental suitability (mainly in Southern Brazil). The future environmental suitability for soybean cultivation tends to decrease by up 50% in the central region of Brazil. Meanwhile, southern-most Brazil will have more favourable conditions, with an increase of ca. 25% in environmental suitability. Considering that opening new areas for cultivation can degrade environmental quality, we suggest that, in the face of climate change impacts on soybean cultivation, the Brazilian government and producers must invest in breeding programmes and more general ecosystem-based strategies for adaptation to climate change, including the development of varieties tolerant to climate stress, and strategies to increase productivity and reduce costs (social and environmental).

Prediction of Low Community Sanitation Coverage Using Environmental and Sociodemographic Factors in Amhara Region, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Oswald, William E.; Stewart, Aisha E. P.; Flanders, W. Dana; Kramer, Michael R.; Endeshaw, Tekola; Zerihun, Mulat; Melaku, Birhanu; Sata, Eshetu; Gessesse, Demelash; Teferi, Tesfaye; Tadesse, Zerihun; Guadie, Birhan; King, Jonathan D.; Emerson, Paul M.; Callahan, Elizabeth K.; Moe, Christine L.; Clasen, Thomas F.

2016-01-01

This study developed and validated a model for predicting the probability that communities in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, have low sanitation coverage, based on environmental and sociodemographic conditions. Community sanitation coverage was measured between 2011 and 2014 through trachoma control program evaluation surveys. Information on environmental and sociodemographic conditions was obtained from available data sources and linked with community data using a geographic information system. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of low community sanitation coverage (< 20% versus ≥ 20%). The selected model was geographically and temporally validated. Model-predicted probabilities of low community sanitation coverage were mapped. Among 1,502 communities, 344 (22.90%) had coverage below 20%. The selected model included measures for high topsoil gravel content, an indicator for low-lying land, population density, altitude, and rainfall and had reasonable predictive discrimination (area under the curve = 0.75, 95% confidence interval = 0.72, 0.78). Measures of soil stability were strongly associated with low community sanitation coverage, controlling for community wealth, and other factors. A model using available environmental and sociodemographic data predicted low community sanitation coverage for areas across Amhara Region with fair discrimination. This approach could assist sanitation programs and trachoma control programs, scaling up or in hyperendemic areas, to target vulnerable areas with additional activities or alternate technologies. PMID:27430547

Review Team Focused Modeling Analysis of Radial Collector Well Operation on the Hypersaline Groundwater Plume beneath the Turkey Point Site near Homestead, Florida

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oostrom, Martinus; Vail, Lance W.

Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory served as members of a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission review team for the Florida Power & Light Company’s application for two combined construction permits and operating licenses (combined licenses or COLs) for two proposed new reactor units—Turkey Point Units 6 and 7. The review team evaluated the environmental impacts of the proposed action based on the October 29, 2014 revision of the COL application, including the Environmental Report, responses to requests for additional information, and supplemental information. As part of this effort, team members tasked with assessing the environmental effects of proposed construction andmore » operation of Units 6 and 7 at the Turkey Point site reviewed two separate modeling studies that analyzed the interaction between surface water and groundwater that would be altered by the operation of radial collector wells (RCWs) at the site. To further confirm their understanding of the groundwater hydrodynamics and to consider whether certain actions, proposed after the two earlier modeling studies were completed, would alter the earlier conclusions documented by the review team in their draft environmental impact statement (EIS; NRC 2015), a third modeling analysis was performed. The third modeling analysis is discussed in this report.« less

Integrating human and natural systems in community psychology: an ecological model of stewardship behavior.

PubMed

Moskell, Christine; Allred, Shorna Broussard

2013-03-01

Community psychology (CP) research on the natural environment lacks a theoretical framework for analyzing the complex relationship between human systems and the natural world. We introduce other academic fields concerned with the interactions between humans and the natural environment, including environmental sociology and coupled human and natural systems. To demonstrate how the natural environment can be included within CP's ecological framework, we propose an ecological model of urban forest stewardship action. Although ecological models of behavior in CP have previously modeled health behaviors, we argue that these frameworks are also applicable to actions that positively influence the natural environment. We chose the environmental action of urban forest stewardship because cities across the United States are planting millions of trees and increased citizen participation in urban tree planting and stewardship will be needed to sustain the benefits provided by urban trees. We used the framework of an ecological model of behavior to illustrate multiple levels of factors that may promote or hinder involvement in urban forest stewardship actions. The implications of our model for the development of multi-level ecological interventions to foster stewardship actions are discussed, as well as directions for future research to further test and refine the model.

Genetic Architecture of Micro-Environmental Plasticity in Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Morgante, Fabio; Sørensen, Peter; Sorensen, Daniel A; Maltecca, Christian; Mackay, Trudy F C

2015-05-06

Individuals of the same genotype do not have the same phenotype for quantitative traits when reared under common macro-environmental conditions, a phenomenon called micro-environmental plasticity. Genetic variation in micro-environmental plasticity is assumed in models of the evolution of phenotypic variance, and is important in applied breeding and personalized medicine. Here, we quantified genetic variation for micro-environmental plasticity for three quantitative traits in the inbred, sequenced lines of the Drosophila melanogaster Genetic Reference Panel. We found substantial genetic variation for micro-environmental plasticity for all traits, with broad sense heritabilities of the same magnitude or greater than those of trait means. Micro-environmental plasticity is not correlated with residual segregating variation, is trait-specific, and has genetic correlations with trait means ranging from zero to near unity. We identified several candidate genes associated with micro-environmental plasticity of startle response, including Drosophila Hsp90, setting the stage for future genetic dissection of this phenomenon.

On Being a Master Planner - A Step by Step Guide. From a Nationwide Study of Environmental Education Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rocchio, Richard; Lee, Eve

This guide demonstrates a new way of utilizing the planning process within a social movement context in view of developing a state master plan for environmental education. In addition the book serves as a guide to realistic planning, including models, definitions, and examples. The guide contains five parts: Part One - The background, Part Two -…

Evaluation of the authenticity of a highly novel environmental sequence from boreal forest soil using ribosomal RNA secondary structure modeling

Treesearch

D.J. Glass; N. Takebayashi; L. Olson; D.L. Taylor

2013-01-01

The number of sequences from both formally described taxa and uncultured environmental DNA deposited in the International Nucleotide Sequence Databases has increased substantially over the last two decades. Although the majority of these sequences represent authentic gene copies, there is evidence of DNA artifacts in these databases as well. These include lab artifacts...

Understanding Cultural Differences in the Antecedents of Pro-Environmental Behavior: A Comparative Analysis of Business Students in the United States and Chile

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cordano, Mark; Welcomer, Stephanie; Scherer, Robert; Pradenas, Lorena; Parada, Victor

2010-01-01

We surveyed business students in the U. S. (n = 256) and Chile (n = 310). The survey included measures drawn from studies of pro-environmental behavior using Schwartz's norm activation theory (Schwartz, 1977), the theory of reasoned action (Ajzen & Fishbein, 1980), and a values-beliefs-norms model created by Stern, Dietz, Abel, Guagnano, and…

DEPOT: A Database of Environmental Parameters, Organizations and Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARSON,SUSAN D.; HUNTER,REGINA LEE; MALCZYNSKI,LEONARD A.

2000-12-19

The Database of Environmental Parameters, Organizations, and Tools (DEPOT) has been developed by the Department of Energy (DOE) as a central warehouse for access to data essential for environmental risk assessment analyses. Initial efforts have concentrated on groundwater and vadose zone transport data and bioaccumulation factors. DEPOT seeks to provide a source of referenced data that, wherever possible, includes the level of uncertainty associated with these parameters. Based on the amount of data available for a particular parameter, uncertainty is expressed as a standard deviation or a distribution function. DEPOT also provides DOE site-specific performance assessment data, pathway-specific transport data,more » and links to environmental regulations, disposal site waste acceptance criteria, other environmental parameter databases, and environmental risk assessment models.« less

Modelling atmospheric transport of α-hexachlorocyclohexane in the Northern Hemispherewith a 3-D dynamical model: DEHM-POP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, K. M.; Christensen, J. H.; Brandt, J.; Frohn, L. M.; Geels, C.

2004-07-01

The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is a 3-D dynamical atmospheric transport model originally developed to describe the atmospheric transport of sulphur into the Arctic. A new version of the model, DEHM-POP, developed to study the atmospheric transport and environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is presented. During environmental cycling, POPs can be deposited and re-emitted several times before reaching a final destination. A description of the exchange processes between the land/ocean surfaces and the atmosphere is included in the model to account for this multi-hop transport. The α-isomer of the pesticide hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) is used as tracer in the model development. The structure of the model and processes included are described in detail. The results from a model simulation showing the atmospheric transport for the years 1991 to 1998 are presented and evaluated against measurements. The annual averaged atmospheric concentration of α-HCH for the 1990s is well described by the model; however, the shorter-term average concentration for most of the stations is not well captured. This indicates that the present simple surface description needs to be refined to get a better description of the air-surface exchange processes of POPs.

Modelling atmospheric transport of persistent organic pollutants in the Northern Hemisphere with a 3-D dynamical model: DEHM-POP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, K. M.; Christensen, J. H.; Brandt, J.; Frohn, L. M.; Geels, C.

2004-03-01

The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is a 3-D dynamical atmospheric transport model originally developed to describe the atmospheric transport of sulphur into the Arctic. A new version of the model, DEHM-POP, developed to study the atmospheric transport and environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is presented. During environmental cycling, POPs can be deposited and re-emitted several times before reaching a final destination. A description of the exchange processes between the land/ocean surfaces and the atmosphere is included in the model to account for this multi-hop transport. The α-isomer of the pesticide hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) is used as tracer in the model development. The structure of the model and processes included are described in detail. The results from a model simulation showing the atmospheric transport for the years 1991 to 1998 are presented and evaluated against measurements. The annual averaged atmospheric concentration of α-HCH for the 1990s is well described by the model; however, the shorter-term average concentration for most of the stations is not well captured. This indicates that the present simple surface description needs to be refined to get a better description of the air-surface exchange proceses of POPs.

Global Distribution of Outbreaks of Water-Associated Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Yang, Kun; LeJeune, Jeffrey; Alsdorf, Doug; Lu, Bo; Shum, C. K.; Liang, Song

2012-01-01

Background Water plays an important role in the transmission of many infectious diseases, which pose a great burden on global public health. However, the global distribution of these water-associated infectious diseases and underlying factors remain largely unexplored. Methods and Findings Based on the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON), a global database including water-associated pathogens and diseases was developed. In this study, reported outbreak events associated with corresponding water-associated infectious diseases from 1991 to 2008 were extracted from the database. The location of each reported outbreak event was identified and geocoded into a GIS database. Also collected in the GIS database included geo-referenced socio-environmental information including population density (2000), annual accumulated temperature, surface water area, and average annual precipitation. Poisson models with Bayesian inference were developed to explore the association between these socio-environmental factors and distribution of the reported outbreak events. Based on model predictions a global relative risk map was generated. A total of 1,428 reported outbreak events were retrieved from the database. The analysis suggested that outbreaks of water-associated diseases are significantly correlated with socio-environmental factors. Population density is a significant risk factor for all categories of reported outbreaks of water-associated diseases; water-related diseases (e.g., vector-borne diseases) are associated with accumulated temperature; water-washed diseases (e.g., conjunctivitis) are inversely related to surface water area; both water-borne and water-related diseases are inversely related to average annual rainfall. Based on the model predictions, “hotspots” of risks for all categories of water-associated diseases were explored. Conclusions At the global scale, water-associated infectious diseases are significantly correlated with socio-environmental factors, impacting all regions which are affected disproportionately by different categories of water-associated infectious diseases. PMID:22348158

Assessing Susceptibility to Age-Related Macular Degeneration With Genetic Markers and Environmental Factors

PubMed Central

Chen, Yuhong; Zeng, Jiexi; Zhao, Chao; Wang, Kevin; Trood, Elizabeth; Buehler, Jeanette; Weed, Matthew; Kasuga, Daniel; Bernstein, Paul S.; Hughes, Guy; Fu, Victoria; Chin, Jessica; Lee, Clara; Crocker, Maureen; Bedell, Matthew; Salasar, Francesca; Yang, Zhenglin; Goldbaum, Michael; Ferreyra, Henry; Freeman, William R.; Kozak, Igor; Zhang, Kang

2014-01-01

Objectives To evaluate the independent and joint effects of genetic factors and environmental variables on advanced forms of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), including geographic atrophy and choroidal neovascularization, and to develop a predictive model with genetic and environmental factors included. Methods Demographic information, including age at onset, smoking status, and body mass index, was collected for 1844 participants. Genotypes were evaluated for 8 variants in 5 genes related to AMD. Unconditional logistic regression analyses were performed to generate a risk predictive model. Results All genetic variants showed a strong association with AMD. Multivariate odds ratios were 3.52 (95% confidence interval, 2.08-5.94) for complement factor H, CFH rs1061170 CC, 4.21 (2.30-7.70) for CFH rs2274700 CC, 0.46 (0.27-0.80) for C2 rs9332739 CC/CG, 0.44 (0.30-0.66) for CFB rs641153 TT/CT, 10.99 (6.04-19.97) for HTRA1/LOC387715 rs10490924 TT, and 2.66 (1.43-4.96) for C3 rs2230199 GG. Smoking was independently associated with advanced AMD after controlling for age, sex, body mass index, and all genetic variants. Conclusion CFH confers more risk to the bilaterality of geographic atrophy, whereas HTRA1/LOC387715 contributes more to the bilaterality of choroidal neovascularization. C3 confers more risk for geographic atrophy than choroidal neovascularization. Risk models with combined genetic and environmental factors have notable discrimination power. Clinical Relevance Early detection and risk prediction of AMD could help to improve the prognosis of AMD and to reduce the outcome of blindness. Targeting high-risk individuals for surveillance and clinical interventions may help reduce disease burden. PMID:21402993

Environmental Quality Index - Overview Report | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A better estimate of overall environmental quality is needed to improve our understanding of the relationship between environmental conditions and humanhealth. Described in this report is the effort to construct an environmental quality index representing multiple domains of the ambient environment, includingair, water, land, built and sociodemographic for all counties in the U.S. for the time period including the years 2000-2005. The EQI was created for two mainpurposes: a.) as an indicator of ambient conditions/exposure in environmental health modeling and b.) as a covariate to adjust for ambient conditions inenvironmental models. However, as detailed in the discussion of this report, the EQI can be adapted and used for other objectives. The EQI was developedin four parts: domain identification; data source identification and review; variable construction; and data reduction. Each of these four areas represents achapter in the report where detailed information is provided on the development of the EQI. The methods applied provide a reproducible approach thatcapitalizes almost exclusively on publically-available data sources.This report is written as an overview to the companion technical document. A better estimate of overall environmental quality is needed to improve our understanding of the relationship between environmental conditions and human health. An environmental quality index (EQI) was developed for all counties in the U.S. using indicators from the

A dynamic model for organic waste management in Quebec (D-MOWIQ) as a tool to review environmental, societal and economic perspectives of a waste management policy.

PubMed

Hénault-Ethier, Louise; Martin, Jean-Philippe; Housset, Johann

2017-08-01

A dynamic systems model of organic waste management for the province of Quebec, Canada, was built. Six distinct modules taking into account social, economical and environmental issues and perspectives were included. Five scenarios were designed and tested to identify the potential consequences of different governmental and demographic combinations of decisions over time. Among these scenarios, one examines Quebec's organic waste management policy (2011-2015), while the other scenarios represent business as usual or emphasize ecology, economy or social benefits in the decision-making process. Model outputs suggest that the current governmental policy should yield favorable environmental benefits, energy production and waste valorization. The projections stemming from the current policy action plan approach the benefits gained by another scenario emphasizing the environmental aspects in the decision-making process. As expected, without the current policy and action plan in place, or business as usual, little improvements are expected in waste management compared to current trends, and strictly emphasizing economic imperatives does not favor sustainable organic waste management. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Analyzing Human-Landscape Interactions: Tools That Integrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zvoleff, Alex; An, Li

2014-01-01

Humans have transformed much of Earth's land surface, giving rise to loss of biodiversity, climate change, and a host of other environmental issues that are affecting human and biophysical systems in unexpected ways. To confront these problems, environmental managers must consider human and landscape systems in integrated ways. This means making use of data obtained from a broad range of methods (e.g., sensors, surveys), while taking into account new findings from the social and biophysical science literatures. New integrative methods (including data fusion, simulation modeling, and participatory approaches) have emerged in recent years to address these challenges, and to allow analysts to provide information that links qualitative and quantitative elements for policymakers. This paper brings attention to these emergent tools while providing an overview of the tools currently in use for analysis of human-landscape interactions. Analysts are now faced with a staggering array of approaches in the human-landscape literature—in an attempt to bring increased clarity to the field, we identify the relative strengths of each tool, and provide guidance to analysts on the areas to which each tool is best applied. We discuss four broad categories of tools: statistical methods (including survival analysis, multi-level modeling, and Bayesian approaches), GIS and spatial analysis methods, simulation approaches (including cellular automata, agent-based modeling, and participatory modeling), and mixed-method techniques (such as alternative futures modeling and integrated assessment). For each tool, we offer an example from the literature of its application in human-landscape research. Among these tools, participatory approaches are gaining prominence for analysts to make the broadest possible array of information available to researchers, environmental managers, and policymakers. Further development of new approaches of data fusion and integration across sites or disciplines pose an important challenge for future work in integrating human and landscape components.

Environmental Impact Assessment of reservoir construction: new perspectives for restoration economy, and development: the Belo Monte Power Plant case study.

PubMed

Tundisi, J G; Matsumura-Tundisi, T; Tundisi, J E M

2015-08-01

The Environmental Impact Assessment of reservoir construction can be viewed as a new strategic perspective for the economic development of a region. Based on the principles of a watershed approach a interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary systemic view including biogeophysiographical, economic and socio environmental studies the new vision of a EIA provides a basic substratum for the restoration economy and an advanced model for the true development much well ahead of the modernization aspects of the project of a reservoir construction.

40 CFR 60.1900 - What must I include in the semiannual out-of-compliance reports?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... in § 60.1855(a)(1)). Include four items: (i) Eight-hour average carbon feed rate. (ii) Reasons for... out-of-compliance reports? 60.1900 Section 60.1900 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION..., 1999 Model Rule-Reporting § 60.1900 What must I include in the semiannual out-of-compliance reports...

40 CFR 60.1900 - What must I include in the semiannual out-of-compliance reports?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... in § 60.1855(a)(1)). Include four items: (i) Eight-hour average carbon feed rate. (ii) Reasons for... out-of-compliance reports? 60.1900 Section 60.1900 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION..., 1999 Model Rule-Reporting § 60.1900 What must I include in the semiannual out-of-compliance reports...

40 CFR 60.1900 - What must I include in the semiannual out-of-compliance reports?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... in § 60.1855(a)(1)). Include four items: (i) Eight-hour average carbon feed rate. (ii) Reasons for... out-of-compliance reports? 60.1900 Section 60.1900 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION..., 1999 Model Rule-Reporting § 60.1900 What must I include in the semiannual out-of-compliance reports...

40 CFR 60.1900 - What must I include in the semiannual out-of-compliance reports?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... in § 60.1855(a)(1)). Include four items: (i) Eight-hour average carbon feed rate. (ii) Reasons for... out-of-compliance reports? 60.1900 Section 60.1900 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION..., 1999 Model Rule-Reporting § 60.1900 What must I include in the semiannual out-of-compliance reports...

Development and validation of an extensive growth and growth boundary model for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. in seafood and meat products.

PubMed

Mejlholm, Ole; Dalgaard, Paw

2013-10-15

A new and extensive growth and growth boundary model for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. was developed and validated for processed and unprocessed products of seafood and meat. The new model was developed by refitting and expanding an existing cardinal parameter model for growth and the growth boundary of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) in processed seafood (O. Mejlholm and P. Dalgaard, J. Food Prot. 70. 2485-2497, 2007). Initially, to estimate values for the maximum specific growth rate at the reference temperature of 25 °C (μref) and the theoretical minimum temperature that prevents growth of psychrotolerant LAB (T(min)), the existing LAB model was refitted to data from experiments with seafood and meat products reported not to include nitrite or any of the four organic acids evaluated in the present study. Next, dimensionless terms modelling the antimicrobial effect of nitrite, and acetic, benzoic, citric and sorbic acids on growth of Lactobacillus sakei were added to the refitted model, together with minimum inhibitory concentrations determined for the five environmental parameters. The new model including the effect of 12 environmental parameters, as well as their interactive effects, was successfully validated using 229 growth rates (μ(max) values) for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. in seafood and meat products. Average bias and accuracy factor values of 1.08 and 1.27, respectively, were obtained when observed and predicted μ(max) values of psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. were compared. Thus, on average μ(max) values were only overestimated by 8%. The performance of the new model was equally good for seafood and meat products, and the importance of including the effect of acetic, benzoic, citric and sorbic acids and to a lesser extent nitrite in order to accurately predict growth of psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. was clearly demonstrated. The new model can be used to predict growth of psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. in seafood and meat products e.g. prediction of the time to a critical cell concentration of bacteria is considered useful for establishing the shelf life. In addition, the high number of environmental parameters included in the new model makes it flexible and suitable for product development as the effect of substituting one combination of preservatives with another can be predicted. In general, the performance of the new model was unacceptable for other types of LAB including Carnobacterium spp., Leuconostoc spp. and Weissella spp. © 2013.

An Online Prediction Platform to Support the Environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Historical QSAR models are currently utilized across a broad range of applications within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). These models predict basic physicochemical properties (e.g., logP, aqueous solubility, vapor pressure), which are then incorporated into exposure, fate and transport models. Whereas the classical manner of publishing results in peer-reviewed journals remains appropriate, there are substantial benefits to be gained by providing enhanced, open access to the training data sets and resulting models. Benefits include improved transparency, more flexibility to expand training sets and improve model algorithms, and greater ability to independently characterize model performance both globally and in local areas of chemistry. We have developed a web-based prediction platform that uses open-source descriptors and modeling algorithms, employs modern cheminformatics technologies, and is tailored for ease of use by the toxicology and environmental regulatory community. This tool also provides web-services to meet both EPA’s projects and the modeling community at-large. The platform hosts models developed within EPA’s National Center for Computational Toxicology, as well as those developed by other EPA scientists and the outside scientific community. Recognizing that there are other on-line QSAR model platforms currently available which have additional capabilities, we connect to such services, where possible, to produce an integrated

Characterizing environmental suitability of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Mexico based on regional and global niche models.

PubMed

Yañez-Arenas, Carlos; Rioja-Nieto, Rodolfo; Martín, Gerardo A; Dzul-Manzanilla, Felipe; Chiappa-Carrara, Xavier; Buenfil-Ávila, Aura; Manrique-Saide, Pablo; Correa-Morales, Fabián; Díaz-Quiñónez, José Alberto; Pérez-Rentería, Crescencio; Ordoñez-Álvarez, José; Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo; Huerta, Herón

2018-01-10

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae), is an invasive species and a vector of numerous human pathogens, including chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. This mosquito had been reported from 36 geographic locations in Mexico by 2005, increasing to 101 locations by 2010 and 501 locations (spanning 16 states) by 2016. Here we modeled the occupied niche for Ae. albopictus in Mexico to characterize the environmental conditions related to its presence, and to generate updated environmental suitability maps. The predictors with the greatest contribution to characterizing the occupied niche for Ae. albopictus were NDVI and annual mean temperature. We also estimated the environmental suitability for Ae. albopictus in regions of the country where it has not been documented yet, by means of: 1) transferring its occupied niche model to these regions and 2) modeling its fundamental niche using global data. Our models will help vector control and public health institutions to identify areas where Ae. albopictus has not yet been recorded but where it may be present. We emphasize that most of Mexico has environmental conditions that potentially allow the survival of Ae. albopictus, which underscores the need for systematic mosquito monitoring in all states of the country. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Mapping urban environmental noise: a land use regression method.

PubMed

Xie, Dan; Liu, Yi; Chen, Jining

2011-09-01

Forecasting and preventing urban noise pollution are major challenges in urban environmental management. Most existing efforts, including experiment-based models, statistical models, and noise mapping, however, have limited capacity to explain the association between urban growth and corresponding noise change. Therefore, these conventional methods can hardly forecast urban noise at a given outlook of development layout. This paper, for the first time, introduces a land use regression method, which has been applied for simulating urban air quality for a decade, to construct an urban noise model (LUNOS) in Dalian Municipality, Northwest China. The LUNOS model describes noise as a dependent variable of surrounding various land areas via a regressive function. The results suggest that a linear model performs better in fitting monitoring data, and there is no significant difference of the LUNOS's outputs when applied to different spatial scales. As the LUNOS facilitates a better understanding of the association between land use and urban environmental noise in comparison to conventional methods, it can be regarded as a promising tool for noise prediction for planning purposes and aid smart decision-making.

Presidents in Action: Strategies for Effective Leadership.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Association of State Colleges and Universities, Washington, DC.

The Task Force on Student Life and Alcohol Abuse of the American Association of State Colleges and Universities identified four models that have proven effective in combating alcohol abuse by students. These models include: social norming, peer education, student assistance programming, and environmental management. Every institution is different,…

A heuristic model on the role of plasticity in adaptive evolution: plasticity increases adaptation, population viability and genetic variation.

PubMed

Gomez-Mestre, Ivan; Jovani, Roger

2013-11-22

An ongoing new synthesis in evolutionary theory is expanding our view of the sources of heritable variation beyond point mutations of fixed phenotypic effects to include environmentally sensitive changes in gene regulation. This expansion of the paradigm is necessary given ample evidence for a heritable ability to alter gene expression in response to environmental cues. In consequence, single genotypes are often capable of adaptively expressing different phenotypes in different environments, i.e. are adaptively plastic. We present an individual-based heuristic model to compare the adaptive dynamics of populations composed of plastic or non-plastic genotypes under a wide range of scenarios where we modify environmental variation, mutation rate and costs of plasticity. The model shows that adaptive plasticity contributes to the maintenance of genetic variation within populations, reduces bottlenecks when facing rapid environmental changes and confers an overall faster rate of adaptation. In fluctuating environments, plasticity is favoured by selection and maintained in the population. However, if the environment stabilizes and costs of plasticity are high, plasticity is reduced by selection, leading to genetic assimilation, which could result in species diversification. More broadly, our model shows that adaptive plasticity is a common consequence of selection under environmental heterogeneity, and hence a potentially common phenomenon in nature. Thus, taking adaptive plasticity into account substantially extends our view of adaptive evolution.

Using Domestic and Free-Ranging Arctic Canid Models for Environmental Molecular Toxicology Research.

PubMed

Harley, John R; Bammler, Theo K; Farin, Federico M; Beyer, Richard P; Kavanagh, Terrance J; Dunlap, Kriya L; Knott, Katrina K; Ylitalo, Gina M; O'Hara, Todd M

2016-02-16

The use of sentinel species for population and ecosystem health assessments has been advocated as part of a One Health perspective. The Arctic is experiencing rapid change, including climate and environmental shifts, as well as increased resource development, which will alter exposure of biota to environmental agents of disease. Arctic canid species have wide geographic ranges and feeding ecologies and are often exposed to high concentrations of both terrestrial and marine-based contaminants. The domestic dog (Canis lupus familiaris) has been used in biomedical research for a number of years and has been advocated as a sentinel for human health due to its proximity to humans and, in some instances, similar diet. Exploiting the potential of molecular tools for describing the toxicogenomics of Arctic canids is critical for their development as biomedical models as well as environmental sentinels. Here, we present three approaches analyzing toxicogenomics of Arctic contaminants in both domestic and free-ranging canids (Arctic fox, Vulpes lagopus). We describe a number of confounding variables that must be addressed when conducting toxicogenomics studies in canid and other mammalian models. The ability for canids to act as models for Arctic molecular toxicology research is unique and significant for advancing our understanding and expanding the tool box for assessing the changing landscape of environmental agents of disease in the Arctic.

Web portal on environmental sciences "ATMOS''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, E. P.; Lykosov, V. N.; Fazliev, A. Z.

2006-06-01

The developed under INTAS grant web portal ATMOS (http://atmos.iao.ru and http://atmos.scert.ru) makes available to the international research community, environmental managers, and the interested public, a bilingual information source for the domain of Atmospheric Physics and Chemistry, and the related application domain of air quality assessment and management. It offers access to integrated thematic information, experimental data, analytical tools and models, case studies, and related information and educational resources compiled, structured, and edited by the partners into a coherent and consistent thematic information resource. While offering the usual components of a thematic site such as link collections, user group registration, discussion forum, news section etc., the site is distinguished by its scientific information services and tools: on-line models and analytical tools, and data collections and case studies together with tutorial material. The portal is organized as a set of interrelated scientific sites, which addressed basic branches of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Modeling as well as the applied domains of Air Quality Assessment and Management, Modeling, and Environmental Impact Assessment. Each scientific site is open for external access information-computational system realized by means of Internet technologies. The main basic science topics are devoted to Atmospheric Chemistry, Atmospheric Spectroscopy and Radiation, Atmospheric Aerosols, Atmospheric Dynamics and Atmospheric Models, including climate models. The portal ATMOS reflects current tendency of Environmental Sciences transformation into exact (quantitative) sciences and is quite effective example of modern Information Technologies and Environmental Sciences integration. It makes the portal both an auxiliary instrument to support interdisciplinary projects of regional environment and extensive educational resource in this important domain.

Integrating malaria surveillance with climate data for outbreak detection and forecasting: the EPIDEMIA system.

PubMed

Merkord, Christopher L; Liu, Yi; Mihretie, Abere; Gebrehiwot, Teklehaymanot; Awoke, Worku; Bayabil, Estifanos; Henebry, Geoffrey M; Kassa, Gebeyaw T; Lake, Mastewal; Wimberly, Michael C

2017-02-23

Early indication of an emerging malaria epidemic can provide an opportunity for proactive interventions. Challenges to the identification of nascent malaria epidemics include obtaining recent epidemiological surveillance data, spatially and temporally harmonizing this information with timely data on environmental precursors, applying models for early detection and early warning, and communicating results to public health officials. Automated web-based informatics systems can provide a solution to these problems, but their implementation in real-world settings has been limited. The Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) computer system was designed and implemented to integrate disease surveillance with environmental monitoring in support of operational malaria forecasting in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. A co-design workshop was held with computer scientists, epidemiological modelers, and public health partners to develop an initial list of system requirements. Subsequent updates to the system were based on feedback obtained from system evaluation workshops and assessments conducted by a steering committee of users in the public health sector. The system integrated epidemiological data uploaded weekly by the Amhara Regional Health Bureau with remotely-sensed environmental data freely available from online archives. Environmental data were acquired and processed automatically by the EASTWeb software program. Additional software was developed to implement a public health interface for data upload and download, harmonize the epidemiological and environmental data into a unified database, automatically update time series forecasting models, and generate formatted reports. Reporting features included district-level control charts and maps summarizing epidemiological indicators of emerging malaria outbreaks, environmental risk factors, and forecasts of future malaria risk. Successful implementation and use of EPIDEMIA is an important step forward in the use of epidemiological and environmental informatics systems for malaria surveillance. Developing software to automate the workflow steps while remaining robust to continual changes in the input data streams was a key technical challenge. Continual stakeholder involvement throughout design, implementation, and operation has created a strong enabling environment that will facilitate the ongoing development, application, and testing of the system.

Models, Measurements, and Local Decisions: Assessing and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation includes a combination of modeling and measurement results to characterize near-source air quality in Newark, New Jersey with consideration of how this information could be used to inform decision making to reduce risk of health impacts. Decisions could include either exposure or emissions reduction, and a host of stakeholders, including residents, academics, NGOs, local and federal agencies. This presentation includes results from the C-PORT modeling system, and from a citizen science project from the local area. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Modeling the spatial distribution of African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Kruger National Park, South Africa

PubMed Central

Hughes, Kristen; Budke, Christine M.; Ward, Michael P.; Kerry, Ruth; Ingram, Ben

2017-01-01

The population density of wildlife reservoirs contributes to disease transmission risk for domestic animals. The objective of this study was to model the African buffalo distribution of the Kruger National Park. A secondary objective was to collect field data to evaluate models and determine environmental predictors of buffalo detection. Spatial distribution models were created using buffalo census information and archived data from previous research. Field data were collected during the dry (August 2012) and wet (January 2013) seasons using a random walk design. The fit of the prediction models were assessed descriptively and formally by calculating the root mean square error (rMSE) of deviations from field observations. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effects of environmental variables on the detection of buffalo herds and linear regression was used to identify predictors of larger herd sizes. A zero-inflated Poisson model produced distributions that were most consistent with expected buffalo behavior. Field data confirmed that environmental factors including season (P = 0.008), vegetation type (P = 0.002), and vegetation density (P = 0.010) were significant predictors of buffalo detection. Bachelor herds were more likely to be detected in dense vegetation (P = 0.005) and during the wet season (P = 0.022) compared to the larger mixed-sex herds. Static distribution models for African buffalo can produce biologically reasonable results but environmental factors have significant effects and therefore could be used to improve model performance. Accurate distribution models are critical for the evaluation of disease risk and to model disease transmission. PMID:28902858

Warming Up to STS. Activities to Encourage Environmental Awareness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenthal, Dorothy B.

1990-01-01

Developed is an interdisciplinary unit that deals with global warming and the greenhouse effect. Included are 10 lessons that can be used to supplement existing plans or used as a basis for developing a new unit. Included are modeling, laboratory, graphing, role-playing, and discussion activities. (KR)

The Mediated Classroom: A Systems Approach to Better University Instruction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ranker, Richard A.

1995-01-01

Describes the design and equipment configuration of four mediated classrooms installed at a small university. Topics include audio, visual, and environmental subsystems; the teaching workstation; integration into learning, including teaching faculty how to use it and providing support services; and an instructional technology integration model.…

Environmental effects and aquatic organisms: investigations of molecular mechanisms of carcinogenesis.

PubMed Central

Van Beneden, R J

1997-01-01

Cancers of the reproductive system are among the leading causes of mortality in women in the United States. While both genetic and environmental factors have been implicated in their etiology, the extent of the contribution of environmental factors to human diseases remains controversial. To better address the role of environmental exposures in cancer etiology, there has been an increasing focus on the development of nontraditional, environmentally relevant models. Our research involves the development of one such model. Gonadal tumors have been described in the softshell clam (Mya arenaria) in Maine and the hardshell clam (Mercenaria spp.) from Florida. Prevalence of these tumors is as high as 40% in some populations in eastern Maine and 60% in some areas along the Indian River in Florida. The average tumor prevalence in Maine and Florida is approximately 20 and 11%, respectively. An association has been suggested between the use of herbicides and the incidence of gonadal tumors in the softshell clam in Maine. The role of environmental exposures in the development of the tumors in Mercenaria in Florida is unknown; however, there is evidence that genetic factors may contribute to its etiology. Epidemiologic studies of human populations in these same areas show a higher than average mortality rate due to cancers of the reproductive system in women, including both ovarian and breast cancer. The relationship, if any, among these observations is unknown. Our studies on the molecular basis of this disease in clams may provide additional information on environmental exposures and their possible link to cancer in clams and other organisms, including humans. Images Figure 1. A Figure 1. B PMID:9168012

Pathogen survival trajectories: an eco-environmental approach to the modeling of human campylobacteriosis ecology.

PubMed Central

Skelly, Chris; Weinstein, Phil

2003-01-01

Campylobacteriosis, like many human diseases, has its own ecology in which the propagation of human infection and disease depends on pathogen survival and finding new hosts in order to replicate and sustain the pathogen population. The complexity of this process, a process common to other enteric pathogens, has hampered control efforts. Many unknowns remain, resulting in a poorly understood disease ecology. To provide structure to these unknowns and help direct further research and intervention, we propose an eco-environmental modeling approach for campylobacteriosis. This modeling approach follows the pathogen population as it moves through the environments that define the physical structure of its ecology. In this paper, we term the ecologic processes and environments through which these populations move "pathogen survival trajectories." Although such a modeling approach could have veterinary applications, our emphasis is on human campylobacteriosis and focuses on human exposures to Campylobacter through feces, food, and aquatic environments. The pathogen survival trajectories that lead to human exposure include ecologic filters that limit population size, e.g., cooking food to kill Campylobacter. Environmental factors that influence the size of the pathogen reservoirs include temperature, nutrient availability, and moisture availability during the period of time the pathogen population is moving through the environment between infected and susceptible hosts. We anticipate that the modeling approach proposed here will work symbiotically with traditional epidemiologic and microbiologic research to help guide and evaluate the acquisition of new knowledge about the ecology, eventual intervention, and control of campylobacteriosis. PMID:12515674

Modeling the effect of snow and ice on the global environmental fate and long-range transport potential of semivolatile organic compounds.

PubMed

Stocker, Judith; Scheringer, Martin; Wegmann, Fabio; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

2007-09-01

Snow and ice have been implemented in a global multimedia box model to investigate the influence of these media on the environmental fate and long-range transport (LRT) of semivolatile organic compounds (SOCs). Investigated compounds include HCB, PCB28, PCB180, PBDE47, PBDE209, alpha-HCH, and dacthal. In low latitudes, snow acts as a transfer medium taking up chemicals from air and releasing them to water or soil during snowmelt. In high latitudes, snow and ice shield water, soil, and vegetation from chemical deposition. In the model version including snow and ice (scenario 2), the mass of chemicals in soil in high latitudes is between 27% (HCB) and 97% (alpha-HCH) of the mass calculated with the model version without snow and ice (scenario 1). Amounts in Arctic seawater in scenario 2 are 8% (alpha-HCH) to 21% (dacthal) of the amounts obtained in scenario 1. For all investigated chemicals except alpha-HCH, presence of snow and ice in the model increases the concentration in air by a factor of 2 (HCB)to 10 (PBDE209). Because of reduced net deposition to snow-covered surfaces in high latitudes, LRT to the Arctic is reduced for most chemicals whereas transport to the south is more pronounced than in scenario 1 ("southward shift"). The presence of snow and ice thus considerably changes the environmental fate of SOCs.

A Regular Production-Remanufacturing Inventory Model for a Two-Echelon System with Price-dependent Return Rate and Environmental Effects Investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwicahyani, A. R.; Jauhari, W. A.; Jonrinaldi

2017-06-01

Product take-back recovery has currently became a promising effort for companies in order to create a sustainable supply chain. In addition, some restrictions including government regulations, social-ethical responsibilities, and up to economic factors have contributed to the reasons for the importance of product take-back recovery. This study aims to develop an inventory model in a system of reverse logistic management consisting of a manufacturer and a collector. Recycle dealer collects used products from the market and ships it to manufacturer. Manufacturer then recovers the used products and sell it eventually to the market. Some recovered products that can not be recovered as good as new one will be sold to the secondary market. In this study, we investigate the effects of environmental factors including GHG emissions and energy usage from transportation, regular production, and remanufacturing operations conducted by manufacturer and solve the model to get the maximum annual joint total profit for both parties. The model also considers price-dependent return rate and determine it as a decision variable as well as number of shipments from collector to manufacturer and optimal cycle period. An iterative procedure is proposed to determine the optimal solutions. We present a numerical example to illustrate the application of the model and perform a sensitivity analysis to study the effects of the changes in environmental related costs on the model’s decision.

40 CFR 86.004-9 - Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

....004-9 Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks. Section 86.004-9 includes... 40 Protection of Environment 19 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks. 86.004-9 Section 86.004-9 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL...

40 CFR 86.004-9 - Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

....004-9 Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks. Section 86.004-9 includes... 40 Protection of Environment 19 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks. 86.004-9 Section 86.004-9 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL...

40 CFR 86.004-9 - Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

....004-9 Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks. Section 86.004-9 includes... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks. 86.004-9 Section 86.004-9 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL...

40 CFR 86.004-9 - Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

....004-9 Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks. Section 86.004-9 includes... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks. 86.004-9 Section 86.004-9 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL...

Applicability of mathematical modeling to problems of environmental physiology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Ronald J.; Lujan, Barbara F.; Leonard, Joel I.; Srinivasan, R. Srini

1988-01-01

The paper traces the evolution of mathematical modeling and systems analysis from terrestrial research to research related to space biomedicine and back again to terrestrial research. Topics covered include: power spectral analysis of physiological signals; pattern recognition models for detection of disease processes; and, computer-aided diagnosis programs used in conjunction with a special on-line biomedical computer library.

Ecosystem effects of environmental flows: Modelling and experimental floods in a dryland river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafroth, P.B.; Wilcox, A.C.; Lytle, D.A.; Hickey, J.T.; Andersen, D.C.; Beauchamp, Vanessa B.; Hautzinger, A.; McMullen, L.E.; Warner, A.

2010-01-01

Successful environmental flow prescriptions require an accurate understanding of the linkages among flow events, geomorphic processes and biotic responses. We describe models and results from experimental flow releases associated with an environmental flow program on the Bill Williams River (BWR), Arizona, in arid to semiarid western U.S.A. Two general approaches for improving knowledge and predictions of ecological responses to environmental flows are: (1) coupling physical system models to ecological responses and (2) clarifying empirical relationships between flow and ecological responses through implementation and monitoring of experimental flow releases. We modelled the BWR physical system using: (1) a reservoir operations model to simulate reservoir releases and reservoir water levels and estimate flow through the river system under a range of scenarios, (2) one- and two-dimensional river hydraulics models to estimate stage-discharge relationships at the whole-river and local scales, respectively, and (3) a groundwater model to estimate surface- and groundwater interactions in a large, alluvial valley on the BWR where surface flow is frequently absent. An example of a coupled, hydrology-ecology model is the Ecosystems Function Model, which we used to link a one-dimensional hydraulic model with riparian tree seedling establishment requirements to produce spatially explicit predictions of seedling recruitment locations in a Geographic Information System. We also quantified the effects of small experimental floods on the differential mortality of native and exotic riparian trees, on beaver dam integrity and distribution, and on the dynamics of differentially flow-adapted benthic macroinvertebrate groups. Results of model applications and experimental flow releases are contributing to adaptive flow management on the BWR and to the development of regional environmental flow standards. General themes that emerged from our work include the importance of response thresholds, which are commonly driven by geomorphic thresholds or mediated by geomorphic processes, and the importance of spatial and temporal variation in the effects of flows on ecosystems, which can result from factors such as longitudinal complexity and ecohydrological feedbacks. ?? Published 2009.

Climate Change Impacts on Migration in the Vulnerable Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Nazan; Incealtin, Gamze; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Şengün Ucal, Meltem

2014-05-01

This work focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in underdeveloped and developed countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the Climate-Development Modeling including climate modeling and panel logit data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinants of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions differ according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. This modeling covers some explanatory variables, which have the relationship with the migration, including GDP per capita, population, temperature and precipitation, which indicate the seasonal differences according to the years, the occurrence of natural hazards over the years, coastal location of countries, permanent cropland areas and fish capture which represents the amount of capturing over the years. We analyzed that whether there is a relationship between the migration and these explanatory variables. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts or related other factors, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. There are some significant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard climate change to be the more destructive force for those who are less defensible against all of these risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. This work was supported by the BU Research Fund under the project number 6990. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

Description and verification of a U.S. Naval Research Lab's loosely coupled data assimilation system for the Navy's Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, N. P.; Metzger, E. J.; Smedstad, O. M.; Ruston, B. C.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Whitcomb, T.; Ridout, J. A.; Zamudio, L.; Posey, P.; Reynolds, C. A.; Richman, J. G.; Phelps, M.

2017-12-01

The Naval Research Laboratory is developing an Earth System Model (NESM) to provide global environmental information to meet Navy and Department of Defense (DoD) operations and planning needs from the upper atmosphere to under the sea. This system consists of a global atmosphere, ocean, ice, wave, and land prediction models and the individual models include: atmosphere - NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM); ocean - HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM); sea ice - Community Ice CodE (CICE); WAVEWATCH III™; and land - NAVGEM Land Surface Model (LSM). Data assimilation is currently loosely coupled between the atmosphere component using a 6-hour update cycle in the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System - Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR) and the ocean/ice components using a 24-hour update cycle in the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) with 3 hours of incremental updating. This presentation will describe the US Navy's coupled forecast model, the loosely coupled data assimilation, and compare results against stand-alone atmosphere and ocean/ice models. In particular, we will focus on the unique aspects of this modeling system, which includes an eddy resolving ocean model and challenges associated with different update-windows and solvers for the data assimilation in the atmosphere and ocean. Results will focus on typical operational diagnostics for atmosphere, ocean, and ice analyses including 500 hPa atmospheric height anomalies, low-level winds, temperature/salinity ocean depth profiles, ocean acoustical proxies, sea ice edge, and sea ice drift. Overall, the global coupled system is performing with comparable skill to the stand-alone systems.

In praise of mechanistically-rich models

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Mooij, Wolf M.; Canham, Charles D.; Cole, Jonathan J.; Lauenroth, William K.

2003-01-01

The book opens with an overview of the status and role of modeling in ecosystem science, including perspectives on the long-running debate over the appropriate level of complexity in models. This is followed by eight chapters that address the critical issue of evaluating ecosystem models, including methods of addressing uncertainty. Next come several case studies of the role of models in environmental policy and management. A section on the future of modeling in ecosystem science focuses on increasing the use of modeling in undergraduate education and the modeling skills of professionals within the field. The benefits and limitations of predictive (versus observational) models are also considered in detail. Written by stellar contributors, this book grants access to the state of the art and science of ecosystem modeling.

Where You Live Matters: Localising Environmental Impacts on Health, Nutrition and Poverty in Cambodia Using Small Area Estimation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsen, K.; van Soesbergen, A.; Matthews, Z.

2016-12-01

Socioeconomic development depends on local environments. However, the scientific evidence quantifying the impact of environmental factors on health, nutrition and poverty at subnational levels is limited. This is because socioeconomic indicators are derived from sample surveys representative only at aggregate levels compared to environmental variables mostly available in high-resolution grids. Cambodia was selected because of its commitment to development in the context of a rapidly deteriorating environment. Having made considerable progress since 2005, access to health services is limited, a quarter of the population is still poor and 40% rural children are malnourished. Cambodia is also facing considerable environmental challenges including high deforestation rates, land degradation and natural hazards. Addressing existing gaps in the knowledge of environmental impacts on health and livelihoods, this study applies small area estimation (SAE) to quantify health, nutritional and poverty outcomes in the context of local environments. SAE produces reliable subnational estimates of socioeconomic outcomes available only from sample surveys by combining them with information from auxiliary sources (census). A model is used to explain common trades across areas and a random effect structure is applied to explain the observed extra heterogeneity. SAE models predicting health, nutrition and poverty outcomes excluding and including contextual environmental variables on natural hazards vulnerability, forest cover, climate, and agricultural production are compared. Results are mapped at regional and district levels to spatially assess the impacts of environmental variation on the outcomes. Inter and intra-regional inequalities are also estimated to examine the efficacy of health/socioeconomic policy targeting based on geographic location. Preliminary results suggest that localised environmental factors have considerable impacts on the indicators estimated and should therefore not be ignored. While there are large regional differences, pockets of malnutrition, poverty and inequitable health outcomes within regions are identified. The inequality decomposition shows under and over-coverage of geographical targeting when environmental factors are taken into account.

Predicting the spatial and temporal distributions of marine fish species utilizing earth system data in a MaxEnt model framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Kerr, L. A.; Bridger, E.

2016-02-01

Changes in species distributions have been widely associated with climate change. Understanding how ocean temperatures influence species distributions is critical for elucidating the role of climate in ecosystem change as well as for forecasting how species may be distributed in the future. As such, species distribution modeling (SDM) is increasingly useful in marine ecosystems research, as it can enable estimation of the likelihood of encountering marine fish in space or time as a function of a set of environmental and ecosystem conditions. Many traditional SDM approaches are applied to species data collected through standardized methods that include both presence and absence records, but are incapable of using presence-only data, such as those collected from fisheries or through citizen science programs. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models provide promising tools as they can predict species distributions from incomplete information (presence-only data). We developed a MaxEnt framework to relate the occurrence records of several marine fish species (e.g. Atlantic herring, Atlantic mackerel, and butterfish) to environmental conditions. Environmental variables derived from remote sensing, such as monthly average sea surface temperature (SST), are matched with fish species data, and model results indicate the relative occurrence rate of the species as a function of the environmental variables. The results can be used to provide hindcasts of where species might have been in the past in relation to historical environmental conditions, nowcasts in relation to current conditions, and forecasts of future species distributions. In this presentation, we will assess the relative influence of several environmental factors on marine fish species distributions, and evaluate the effects of data coverage on these presence-only models. We will also discuss how the information from species distribution forecasts can support climate adaptation planning in marine fisheries.

Research notes : solar powered markers not up to challenge.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-06-01

ODOT performed preliminary tests on eight different models of solar powered raised pavement markers. These included environmental tests (extreme temperatures, immersion), optical performance tests, and observation tests. Federal Highway Administratio...

Improving three-tier environmental assessment model by using a 3D scanning FLS-AM series hyperspectral lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samberg, Andre; Babichenko, Sergei; Poryvkina, Larisa

2005-05-01

Delay between the time when natural disaster, for example, oil accident in coastal water, occurred and the time when environmental protection actions, for example, water and shoreline clean-up, started is of significant importance. Mostly remote sensing techniques are considered as (near) real-time and suitable for multiple tasks. These techniques in combination with rapid environmental assessment methodologies would form multi-tier environmental assessment model, which allows creating (near) real-time datasets and optimizing sampling scenarios. This paper presents the idea of three-tier environmental assessment model. Here all three tiers are briefly described to show the linkages between them, with a particular focus on the first tier. Furthermore, it is described how large-scale environmental assessment can be improved by using an airborne 3-D scanning FLS-AM series hyperspectral lidar. This new aircraft-based sensor is typically applied for oil mapping on sea/ground surface and extracting optical features of subjects. In general, a sampling network, which is based on three-tier environmental assessment model, can include ship(s) and aircraft(s). The airborne 3-D scanning FLS-AM series hyperspectral lidar helps to speed up the whole process of assessing of area of natural disaster significantly, because this is a real-time remote sensing mean. For instance, it can deliver such information as georeferenced oil spill position in WGS-84, the estimated size of the whole oil spill, and the estimated amount of oil in seawater or on ground. All information is produced in digital form and, thus, can be directly transferred into a customer"s GIS (Geographical Information System) system.

The Swedish radiological environmental protection regulations applied in a review of a license application for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel.

PubMed

Andersson, Pål; Stark, Karolina; Xu, Shulan; Nordén, Maria; Dverstorp, Björn

2017-11-01

For the first time, a system for specific consideration of radiological environmental protection has been applied in a major license application in Sweden. In 2011 the Swedish Nuclear Fuel & Waste Management Co. (SKB) submitted a license application for construction of a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel at the Forsmark site. The license application is supported by a post-closure safety assessment, which in accordance with regulatory requirements includes an assessment of environmental consequences. SKB's environmental risk assessment uses the freely available ERICA Tool. Environmental media activity concentrations needed as input to the tool are calculated by means of complex biosphere modelling based on site-specific information gathered from site investigations, as well as from supporting modelling studies and projections of future biosphere conditions in response to climate change and land rise due to glacial rebound. SKB's application is currently being reviewed by the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM). In addition to a traditional document review with an aim to determine whether SKB's models are relevant, correctly implemented and adequately parametrized, SSM has performed independent modelling in order to gain confidence in the robustness of SKB's assessment. Thus, SSM has used alternative stylized reference biosphere models to calculate environmental activity concentrations for use in subsequent exposure calculations. Secondly, an alternative dose model (RESRAD-BIOTA) is used to calculate doses to biota that are compared with SKB's calculations with the ERICA tool. SSM's experience from this review is that existing tools for environmental dose assessment are possible to use in order to show compliance with Swedish legislation. However, care is needed when site representative species are assessed with the aim to contrast them to generic reference organism. The alternative modelling of environmental concentrations resulted in much lower concentrations compared to SKB's results. However, SSM judges that SKB's in this part conservative approach is relevant for a screening assessment. SSM also concludes that there are big differences in dose rates calculated to different organisms depending on which tool that is used, although not systematically higher for either of them. Finally, independent regulatory modelling has proven valuable for SSM's review in gaining understanding and confidence in SKB's assessment presented in the license application. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States

DOE PAGES

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

2014-12-30

Commonly considered strategies for reducing the environmental impact of light-duty transportation include using alternative fuels and improving vehicle fuel economy. We evaluate the air quality-related human health impacts of 10 such options, including the use of liquid biofuels, diesel, and compressed natural gas (CNG) in internal combustion engines; the use of electricity from a range of conventional and renewable sources to power electric vehicles (EVs); and the use of hybrid EV technology. Our approach combines spatially, temporally, and chemically detailed life cycle emission inventories; comprehensive, fine-scale state-of-the-science chemical transport modeling; and exposure, concentration–response, and economic health impact modeling for ozonemore » (O 3) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5). We find that powering vehicles with corn ethanol or with coal-based or “grid average” electricity increases monetized environmental health impacts by 80% or more relative to using conventional gasoline. Conversely, EVs powered by low-emitting electricity from natural gas, wind, water, or solar power reduce environmental health impacts by 50% or more. Consideration of potential climate change impacts alongside the human health outcomes described here further reinforces the environmental preferability of EVs powered by low-emitting electricity relative to gasoline vehicles.« less

Designing a Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship for the ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Toxicokinetic models serve a vital role in risk assessment by bridging the gap between chemical exposure and potentially toxic endpoints. While intrinsic metabolic clearance rates have a strong impact on toxicokinetics, limited data is available for environmentally relevant chemicals including nearly 8000 chemicals tested for in vitro bioactivity in the Tox21 program. To address this gap, a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) for intrinsic metabolic clearance rate was developed to offer reliable in silico predictions for a diverse array of chemicals. Models were constructed with curated in vitro assay data for both pharmaceutical-like chemicals (ChEMBL database) and environmentally relevant chemicals (ToxCast screening) from human liver microsomes (2176 from ChEMBL) and human hepatocytes (757 from ChEMBL and 332 from ToxCast). Due to variability in the experimental data, a binned approach was utilized to classify metabolic rates. Machine learning algorithms, such as random forest and k-nearest neighbor, were coupled with open source molecular descriptors and fingerprints to provide reasonable estimates of intrinsic metabolic clearance rates. Applicability domains defined the optimal chemical space for predictions, which covered environmental chemicals well. A reduced set of informative descriptors (including relative charge and lipophilicity) and a mixed training set of pharmaceuticals and environmentally relevant chemicals provided the best intr

A global Fine-Root Ecology Database to address below-ground challenges in plant ecology

DOE PAGES

Iversen, Colleen M.; McCormack, M. Luke; Powell, A. Shafer; ...

2017-02-28

Variation and tradeoffs within and among plant traits are increasingly being harnessed by empiricists and modelers to understand and predict ecosystem processes under changing environmental conditions. And while fine roots play an important role in ecosystem functioning, fine-root traits are underrepresented in global trait databases. This has hindered efforts to analyze fine-root trait variation and link it with plant function and environmental conditions at a global scale. This Viewpoint addresses the need for a centralized fine-root trait database, and introduces the Fine-Root Ecology Database (FRED, http://roots.ornl.gov) which so far includes > 70 000 observations encompassing a broad range of rootmore » traits and also includes associated environmental data. FRED represents a critical step toward improving our understanding of below-ground plant ecology. For example, FRED facilitates the quantification of variation in fine-root traits across root orders, species, biomes, and environmental gradients while also providing a platform for assessments of covariation among root, leaf, and wood traits, the role of fine roots in ecosystem functioning, and the representation of fine roots in terrestrial biosphere models. There has been a continued input of observations into FRED to fill gaps in trait coverage will improve our understanding of changes in fine-root traits across space and time.« less

A global Fine-Root Ecology Database to address below-ground challenges in plant ecology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iversen, Colleen M.; McCormack, M. Luke; Powell, A. Shafer

Variation and tradeoffs within and among plant traits are increasingly being harnessed by empiricists and modelers to understand and predict ecosystem processes under changing environmental conditions. And while fine roots play an important role in ecosystem functioning, fine-root traits are underrepresented in global trait databases. This has hindered efforts to analyze fine-root trait variation and link it with plant function and environmental conditions at a global scale. This Viewpoint addresses the need for a centralized fine-root trait database, and introduces the Fine-Root Ecology Database (FRED, http://roots.ornl.gov) which so far includes > 70 000 observations encompassing a broad range of rootmore » traits and also includes associated environmental data. FRED represents a critical step toward improving our understanding of below-ground plant ecology. For example, FRED facilitates the quantification of variation in fine-root traits across root orders, species, biomes, and environmental gradients while also providing a platform for assessments of covariation among root, leaf, and wood traits, the role of fine roots in ecosystem functioning, and the representation of fine roots in terrestrial biosphere models. There has been a continued input of observations into FRED to fill gaps in trait coverage will improve our understanding of changes in fine-root traits across space and time.« less

Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States

PubMed Central

Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

2014-01-01

Commonly considered strategies for reducing the environmental impact of light-duty transportation include using alternative fuels and improving vehicle fuel economy. We evaluate the air quality-related human health impacts of 10 such options, including the use of liquid biofuels, diesel, and compressed natural gas (CNG) in internal combustion engines; the use of electricity from a range of conventional and renewable sources to power electric vehicles (EVs); and the use of hybrid EV technology. Our approach combines spatially, temporally, and chemically detailed life cycle emission inventories; comprehensive, fine-scale state-of-the-science chemical transport modeling; and exposure, concentration–response, and economic health impact modeling for ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We find that powering vehicles with corn ethanol or with coal-based or “grid average” electricity increases monetized environmental health impacts by 80% or more relative to using conventional gasoline. Conversely, EVs powered by low-emitting electricity from natural gas, wind, water, or solar power reduce environmental health impacts by 50% or more. Consideration of potential climate change impacts alongside the human health outcomes described here further reinforces the environmental preferability of EVs powered by low-emitting electricity relative to gasoline vehicles. PMID:25512510

Dynamic analysis of space structures including elastic, multibody, and control behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinson, Larry; Soosaar, Keto

1989-01-01

The problem is to develop analysis methods, modeling stategies, and simulation tools to predict with assurance the on-orbit performance and integrity of large complex space structures that cannot be verified on the ground. The problem must incorporate large reliable structural models, multi-body flexible dynamics, multi-tier controller interaction, environmental models including 1g and atmosphere, various on-board disturbances, and linkage to mission-level performance codes. All areas are in serious need of work, but the weakest link is multi-body flexible dynamics.

Emergy assessment of three home courtyard agriculture production systems in Tibet Autonomous Region, China*

PubMed Central

Guan, Fa-chun; Sha, Zhi-peng; Zhang, Yu-yang; Wang, Jun-feng; Wang, Chao

2016-01-01

Home courtyard agriculture is an important model of agricultural production on the Tibetan plateau. Because of the sensitive and fragile plateau environment, it needs to have optimal performance characteristics, including high sustainability, low environmental pressure, and high economic benefit. Emergy analysis is a promising tool for evaluation of the environmental-economic performance of these production systems. In this study, emergy analysis was used to evaluate three courtyard agricultural production models: Raising Geese in Corn Fields (RGICF), Conventional Corn Planting (CCP), and Pea-Wheat Rotation (PWR). The results showed that the RGICF model produced greater economic benefits, and had higher sustainability, lower environmental pressure, and higher product safety than the CCP and PWR models. The emergy yield ratio (EYR) and emergy self-support ratio (ESR) of RGICF were 0.66 and 0.11, respectively, lower than those of the CCP production model, and 0.99 and 0.08, respectively, lower than those of the PWR production model. The impact of RGICF (1.45) on the environment was lower than that of CCP (2.26) and PWR (2.46). The emergy sustainable indices (ESIs) of RGICF were 1.07 and 1.02 times higher than those of CCP and PWR, respectively. With regard to the emergy index of product safety (EIPS), RGICF had a higher safety index than those of CCP and PWR. Overall, our results suggest that the RGICF model is advantageous and provides higher environmental benefits than the CCP and PWR systems. PMID:27487808

Emergy assessment of three home courtyard agriculture production systems in Tibet Autonomous Region, China.

PubMed

Guan, Fa-Chun; Sha, Zhi-Peng; Zhang, Yu-Yang; Wang, Jun-Feng; Wang, Chao

2016-08-01

Home courtyard agriculture is an important model of agricultural production on the Tibetan plateau. Because of the sensitive and fragile plateau environment, it needs to have optimal performance characteristics, including high sustainability, low environmental pressure, and high economic benefit. Emergy analysis is a promising tool for evaluation of the environmental-economic performance of these production systems. In this study, emergy analysis was used to evaluate three courtyard agricultural production models: Raising Geese in Corn Fields (RGICF), Conventional Corn Planting (CCP), and Pea-Wheat Rotation (PWR). The results showed that the RGICF model produced greater economic benefits, and had higher sustainability, lower environmental pressure, and higher product safety than the CCP and PWR models. The emergy yield ratio (EYR) and emergy self-support ratio (ESR) of RGICF were 0.66 and 0.11, respectively, lower than those of the CCP production model, and 0.99 and 0.08, respectively, lower than those of the PWR production model. The impact of RGICF (1.45) on the environment was lower than that of CCP (2.26) and PWR (2.46). The emergy sustainable indices (ESIs) of RGICF were 1.07 and 1.02 times higher than those of CCP and PWR, respectively. With regard to the emergy index of product safety (EIPS), RGICF had a higher safety index than those of CCP and PWR. Overall, our results suggest that the RGICF model is advantageous and provides higher environmental benefits than the CCP and PWR systems.

Therapeutic Effects of Anthocyanins and Environmental Enrichment in R6/1 Huntington's Disease Mice.

PubMed

Kreilaus, Fabian; Spiro, Adena S; Hannan, Anthony J; Garner, Brett; Jenner, Andrew M

2016-10-01

Huntington's disease (HD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease with no effective treatment or cure. Environmental enrichment has been used to slow processes leading to ageing and neurodegenerative diseases including HD. Phenolic phytochemicals including anthocyanins have also been shown to improve brain function in ageing and neurodegenerative diseases. This study examined the effects of anthocyanin dietary supplementation and environmental enrichment on behavioural phenotypes and brain cholesterol metabolic alterations in the R6/1 mouse model of HD. R6/1 HD mice and their wild-type littermate controls were randomised into the different experimental conditions, involving either environmentally enriched versus standard housing conditions, or anthocyanin versus control diet. Motor dysfunction was assessed from 6 to 26 weeks using the RotaRod and the hind-paw clasping tests. Gas chromatography - tandem mass spectrometry was used to quantify a broad range of sterols in the striatum and cortex of R6/1 HD mice. Anthocyanin dietary supplementation delayed the onset of motor dysfunction in female HD mice. Environmental enrichment improved motor function and the hind paw clasping phenotype in male HD mice only. These mice also had lower levels of cholesterol oxidation products in the cortex compared to standard-housed mice. Both anthocyanin supplementation and environmental enrichment are able to improve the motor dysfunction phenotype of R6/1 mice, however the effectiveness of these interventions was different between the two sexes. The interventions examined did not alter brain cholesterol metabolic deficits that have been reported previously in this mouse model of HD.

In vitro screening of environmental chemicals for targeted testing prioritization: the ToxCast project.

PubMed

Judson, Richard S; Houck, Keith A; Kavlock, Robert J; Knudsen, Thomas B; Martin, Matthew T; Mortensen, Holly M; Reif, David M; Rotroff, Daniel M; Shah, Imran; Richard, Ann M; Dix, David J

2010-04-01

Chemical toxicity testing is being transformed by advances in biology and computer modeling, concerns over animal use, and the thousands of environmental chemicals lacking toxicity data. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's ToxCast program aims to address these concerns by screening and prioritizing chemicals for potential human toxicity using in vitro assays and in silico approaches. This project aims to evaluate the use of in vitro assays for understanding the types of molecular and pathway perturbations caused by environmental chemicals and to build initial prioritization models of in vivo toxicity. We tested 309 mostly pesticide active chemicals in 467 assays across nine technologies, including high-throughput cell-free assays and cell-based assays, in multiple human primary cells and cell lines plus rat primary hepatocytes. Both individual and composite scores for effects on genes and pathways were analyzed. Chemicals displayed a broad spectrum of activity at the molecular and pathway levels. We saw many expected interactions, including endocrine and xenobiotic metabolism enzyme activity. Chemicals ranged in promiscuity across pathways, from no activity to affecting dozens of pathways. We found a statistically significant inverse association between the number of pathways perturbed by a chemical at low in vitro concentrations and the lowest in vivo dose at which a chemical causes toxicity. We also found associations between a small set of in vitro assays and rodent liver lesion formation. This approach promises to provide meaningful data on the thousands of untested environmental chemicals and to guide targeted testing of environmental contaminants.

Microbial forensics: predicting phenotypic characteristics and environmental conditions from large-scale gene expression profiles.

PubMed

Kim, Minseung; Zorraquino, Violeta; Tagkopoulos, Ilias

2015-03-01

A tantalizing question in cellular physiology is whether the cellular state and environmental conditions can be inferred by the expression signature of an organism. To investigate this relationship, we created an extensive normalized gene expression compendium for the bacterium Escherichia coli that was further enriched with meta-information through an iterative learning procedure. We then constructed an ensemble method to predict environmental and cellular state, including strain, growth phase, medium, oxygen level, antibiotic and carbon source presence. Results show that gene expression is an excellent predictor of environmental structure, with multi-class ensemble models achieving balanced accuracy between 70.0% (±3.5%) to 98.3% (±2.3%) for the various characteristics. Interestingly, this performance can be significantly boosted when environmental and strain characteristics are simultaneously considered, as a composite classifier that captures the inter-dependencies of three characteristics (medium, phase and strain) achieved 10.6% (±1.0%) higher performance than any individual models. Contrary to expectations, only 59% of the top informative genes were also identified as differentially expressed under the respective conditions. Functional analysis of the respective genetic signatures implicates a wide spectrum of Gene Ontology terms and KEGG pathways with condition-specific information content, including iron transport, transferases, and enterobactin synthesis. Further experimental phenotypic-to-genotypic mapping that we conducted for knock-out mutants argues for the information content of top-ranked genes. This work demonstrates the degree at which genome-scale transcriptional information can be predictive of latent, heterogeneous and seemingly disparate phenotypic and environmental characteristics, with far-reaching applications.

Uncertainty quantification for environmental models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming

2012-01-01

Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10]. There are also bootstrapping and cross-validation approaches.Sometimes analyses are conducted using surrogate models [12]. The availability of so many options can be confusing. Categorizing methods based on fundamental questions assists in communicating the essential results of uncertainty analyses to stakeholders. Such questions can focus on model adequacy (e.g., How well does the model reproduce observed system characteristics and dynamics?) and sensitivity analysis (e.g., What parameters can be estimated with available data? What observations are important to parameters and predictions? What parameters are important to predictions?), as well as on the uncertainty quantification (e.g., How accurate and precise are the predictions?). The methods can also be classified by the number of model runs required: few (10s to 1000s) or many (10,000s to 1,000,000s). Of the methods listed above, the most computationally frugal are generally those based on local derivatives; MCMC methods tend to be among the most computationally demanding. Surrogate models (emulators)do not necessarily produce computational frugality because many runs of the full model are generally needed to create a meaningful surrogate model. With this categorization, we can, in general, address all the fundamental questions mentioned above using either computationally frugal or demanding methods. Model development and analysis can thus be conducted consistently using either computation-ally frugal or demanding methods; alternatively, different fundamental questions can be addressed using methods that require different levels of effort. Based on this perspective, we pose the question: Can computationally frugal methods be useful companions to computationally demanding meth-ods? The reliability of computationally frugal methods generally depends on the model being reasonably linear, which usually means smooth nonlin-earities and the assumption of Gaussian errors; both tend to be more valid with more linear

Dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis of nano-SiO2, nano iron oxides, nano-CeO2, nano-Al2O3, and quantum dots in seven European regions.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Nowack, Bernd

2018-04-01

Static environmental exposure assessment models based on material flow analysis (MFA) have previously been used to estimate flows of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) to the environment. However, such models do not account for changes in the system behavior over time. Dynamic MFA used in this study includes the time-dependent development of the modelling system by considering accumulation of ENMs in stocks and the environment, and the dynamic release of ENMs from nano-products. In addition, this study also included regional variations in population, waste management systems, and environmental compartments, which subsequently influence the environmental release and concentrations of ENMs. We have estimated the flows and release concentrations of nano-SiO 2 , nano-iron oxides, nano-CeO 2 , nano-Al 2 O 3 , and quantum dots in the EU and six geographical sub-regions in Europe (Central Europe, Northern Europe, Southern Europe, Eastern Europe, South-eastern Europe, and Switzerland). The model predicts that a large amount of ENMs are accumulated in stocks (not considering further transformation). For example, in the EU 2040 Mt of nano-SiO 2 are stored in the in-use stock, 80,400 tonnes have been accumulated in sediments and 65,600 tonnes in natural and urban soil from 1990 to 2014. The magnitude of flows in waste management processes in different regions varies because of differences in waste handling. For example, concentrations in landfilled waste are lowest in South-eastern Europe due to dilution by the high amount of landfilled waste in the region. The flows predicted in this work can serve as improved input data for mechanistic environmental fate models and risk assessment studies compared to previous estimates using static models. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projecting Future Urbanization with Prescott College's Spatial Growth Model to Promote Environmental Sustainability and Smart Growth, A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Limaye, Ashutosh; Johnson, Hoyt; Quattrochi, Dale; Lapenta, William; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

Planning is an integral element of good management and necessary to anticipate events not merely respond to them. Projecting the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth is essential to effectively plan for the delivery of city services and to evaluate potential environmental impacts. The major drivers of growth in large urban areas are increasing population, employment opportunities, and quality of life attractors such as a favorable climate and recreation opportunities. The spatial distribution of urban growth is dictated by the amount and location of developable land, topography, energy and water resources, transportation network, climate change, and the existing land use configuration. The Atlanta region is growing very rapidly both in population and the consumption of forestland or low-density residential development. Air pollution and water availability are significant ongoing environmental issues. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model (SGM) was used to make growth projections for the metropolitan Atlanta region to 2010,2020 and 2030 and results used for environmental assessment in both business as usual and smart growth scenarios. The Prescott SGM is a tool that uses an ESRI ArcView extension and can be applied at the parcel level or more coarse spatial scales and can accommodate a wide range of user inputs to develop any number of growth rules each of which can be weighted depending on growth assumptions. These projections were used in conjunction with meteorological and air quality models to evaluate future environmental impacts. This presentation will focus on the application of the SGM to the 13-County Atlanta Regional Commission planning jurisdiction as a case study. The SGM will be described, including how rule sets are developed and the decision process for allocation of future development to available land use categories. Data inputs required to effectively run the model will be discussed. Spatial growth projections for ten, twenty, and thirty year planning horizons will be presented and results discussed, including regional climate and air quality impacts.

Functional enzyme-based modeling approach for dynamic simulation of denitrification process in hyporheic zone sediments: Genetically structured microbial community model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, H. S.; Li, M.; Qian, W.; Song, X.; Chen, X.; Scheibe, T. D.; Fredrickson, J.; Zachara, J. M.; Liu, C.

2016-12-01

Modeling environmental microbial communities at individual organism level is currently intractable due to overwhelming structural complexity. Functional guild-based approaches alleviate this problem by lumping microorganisms into fewer groups based on their functional similarities. This reduction may become ineffective, however, when individual species perform multiple functions as environmental conditions vary. In contrast, the functional enzyme-based modeling approach we present here describes microbial community dynamics based on identified functional enzymes (rather than individual species or their groups). Previous studies in the literature along this line used biomass or functional genes as surrogate measures of enzymes due to the lack of analytical methods for quantifying enzymes in environmental samples. Leveraging our recent development of a signature peptide-based technique enabling sensitive quantification of functional enzymes in environmental samples, we developed a genetically structured microbial community model (GSMCM) to incorporate enzyme concentrations and various other omics measurements (if available) as key modeling input. We formulated the GSMCM based on the cybernetic metabolic modeling framework to rationally account for cellular regulation without relying on empirical inhibition kinetics. In the case study of modeling denitrification process in Columbia River hyporheic zone sediments collected from the Hanford Reach, our GSMCM provided a quantitative fit to complex experimental data in denitrification, including the delayed response of enzyme activation to the change in substrate concentration. Our future goal is to extend the modeling scope to the prediction of carbon and nitrogen cycles and contaminant fate. Integration of a simpler version of the GSMCM with PFLOTRAN for multi-scale field simulations is in progress.

Drosophila Melanogaster as an Emerging Translational Model of Human Nephrolithiasis

PubMed Central

Miller, Joe; Chi, Thomas; Kapahi, Pankaj; Kahn, Arnold J.; Kim, Man Su; Hirata, Taku; Romero, Michael F.; Dow, Julian A.T.; Stoller, Marshall L.

2013-01-01

Purpose The limitations imposed by human clinical studies and mammalian models of nephrolithiasis have hampered the development of effective medical treatments and preventative measures for decades. The simple but elegant Drosophila melanogaster is emerging as a powerful translational model of human disease, including nephrolithiasis and may provide important information essential to our understanding of stone formation. We present the current state of research using D. melanogaster as a model of human nephrolithiasis. Materials and Methods A comprehensive review of the English language literature was performed using PUBMED. When necessary, authoritative texts on relevant subtopics were consulted. Results The genetic composition, anatomic structure and physiologic function of Drosophila Malpighian tubules are remarkably similar to those of the human nephron. The direct effects of dietary manipulation, environmental alteration, and genetic variation on stone formation can be observed and quantified in a matter of days. Several Drosophila models of human nephrolithiasis, including genetically linked and environmentally induced stones, have been developed. A model of calcium oxalate stone formation is among the most recent fly models of human nephrolithiasis. Conclusions The ability to readily manipulate and quantify stone formation in D. melanogaster models of human nephrolithiasis presents the urologic community with a unique opportunity to increase our understanding of this enigmatic disease. PMID:23500641

Global health and development: conceptualizing health between economic growth and environmental sustainability.

PubMed

Borowy, Iris

2013-07-01

After World War II, health was firmly integrated into the discourse about national development. Transition theories portrayed health improvements as part of an overall development pattern based on economic growth as modeled by the recent history of industrialization in high-income countries. In the 1970s, an increasing awareness of the environmental degradation caused by industrialization challenged the conventional model of development. Gradually, it became clear that health improvements depended on poverty-reduction strategies including industrialization. Industrialization, in turn, risked aggravating environmental degradation with its negative effects on public health. Thus, public health in low-income countries threatened to suffer from lack of economic development as well as from the results of global economic development. Similarly, demands of developing countries risked being trapped between calls for global wealth redistribution, a political impossibility, and calls for unrestricted material development, which, in a world of finite land, water, air, energy, and resources, increasingly looked like a physical impossibility, too. Various international bodies, including the WHO, the Brundtland Commission, and the World Bank, tried to capture the problem and solution strategies in development theories. Broadly conceived, two models have emerged: a "localist model," which analyzes national health data and advocates growth policies with a strong focus on poverty reduction, and a "globalist" model, based on global health data, which calls for growth optimization, rather than maximization. Both models have focused on different types of health burdens and have received support from different institutions. In a nutshell, the health discourse epitomized a larger controversy regarding competing visions of development.

Estimating aquatic toxicity as determined through laboratory tests of great lakes sediments containing complex mixtures of environmental contaminants

USGS Publications Warehouse

1996-01-01

We developed and evaluated a total toxic units modeling approach for predicting mean toxicity as measured in laboratory tests for Great Lakes sediments containing complex mixtures of environmental contaminants (e.g., polychlorinated biphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, pesticides, chlorinated dioxins, and metals). The approach incorporates equilibrium partitioning and organic carbon control of bioavailability for organic contaminants and acid volatile sulfide (AVS) control for metals, and includes toxic equivalency for planar organic chemicals. A toxic unit is defined as the ratio of the estimated pore-water concentration of a contaminant to the chronic toxicity of that contaminant, as estimated by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Ambient Water Quality Criteria (AWQC). The toxic unit models we developed assume complete additivity of contaminant effects, are completely mechanistic in form, and were evaluated without any a posteriori modification of either the models or the data from which the models were developed and against which they were tested. A linear relationship between total toxic units, which included toxicity attributable to both iron and un-ionized ammonia, accounted for about 88% of observed variability in mean toxicity; a quadratic relationship accounted for almost 94%. Exclusion of either bioavailability components (i.e., equilibrium partitioning control of organic contaminants and AVS control of metals) or iron from the model substantially decreased its ability to predict mean toxicity. A model based solely on un-ionized ammonia accounted for about 47% of the variability in mean toxicity. We found the toxic unit approach to be a viable method for assessing and ranking the relative potential toxicity of contaminated sediments.

[Micro-simulation of firms' heterogeneity on pollution intensity and regional characteristics].

PubMed

Zhao, Nan; Liu, Yi; Chen, Ji-Ning

2009-11-01

In the same industrial sector, heterogeneity of pollution intensity exists among firms. There are some errors if using sector's average pollution intensity, which are calculated by limited number of firms in environmental statistic database to represent the sector's regional economic-environmental status. Based on the production function which includes environmental depletion as input, a micro-simulation model on firms' operational decision making is proposed. Then the heterogeneity of firms' pollution intensity can be mechanically described. Taking the mechanical manufacturing sector in Deyang city, 2005 as the case, the model's parameters were estimated. And the actual COD emission intensities of environmental statistic firms can be properly matched by the simulation. The model's results also show that the regional average COD emission intensity calculated by the environmental statistic firms (0.002 6 t per 10 000 yuan fixed asset, 0.001 5 t per 10 000 yuan production value) is lower than the regional average intensity calculated by all the firms in the region (0.003 0 t per 10 000 yuan fixed asset, 0.002 3 t per 10 000 yuan production value). The difference among average intensities in the six counties is significant as well. These regional characteristics of pollution intensity attribute to the sector's inner-structure (firms' scale distribution, technology distribution) and its spatial deviation.

APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN AND GEOSTATISTICAL MODELING TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING OF CS-137 AT THE IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kara G. Eby

2010-08-01

At the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Cs-137 concentrations above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency risk-based threshold of 0.23 pCi/g may increase the risk of human mortality due to cancer. As a leader in nuclear research, the INL has been conducting nuclear activities for decades. Elevated anthropogenic radionuclide levels including Cs-137 are a result of atmospheric weapons testing, the Chernobyl accident, and nuclear activities occurring at the INL site. Therefore environmental monitoring and long-term surveillance of Cs-137 is required to evaluate risk. However, due to the large land area involved, frequent and comprehensive monitoring is limited. Developing a spatial model thatmore » predicts Cs-137 concentrations at unsampled locations will enhance the spatial characterization of Cs-137 in surface soils, provide guidance for an efficient monitoring program, and pinpoint areas requiring mitigation strategies. The predictive model presented herein is based on applied geostatistics using a Bayesian analysis of environmental characteristics across the INL site, which provides kriging spatial maps of both Cs-137 estimates and prediction errors. Comparisons are presented of two different kriging methods, showing that the use of secondary information (i.e., environmental characteristics) can provide improved prediction performance in some areas of the INL site.« less

Estimating environmental co-benefits of U.S. low-carbon pathways using an integrated assessment model with state-level resolution.

PubMed

Ou, Yang; Shi, Wenjing; Smith, Steven J; Ledna, Catherine M; West, J Jason; Nolte, Christopher G; Loughlin, Daniel H

2018-04-15

There are many technological pathways that can lead to reduced carbon dioxide emissions. However, these pathways can have substantially different impacts on other environmental endpoints, such as air quality and energy-related water demand. This study uses an integrated assessment model with state-level resolution of the energy system to compare environmental impacts of alternative low-carbon pathways for the United States. One set of pathways emphasizes nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage, while another set emphasizes renewable energy, including wind, solar, geothermal power, and bioenergy. These are compared with pathways in which all technologies are available. Air pollutant emissions, mortality costs attributable to particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm in diameter, and energy-related water demands are evaluated for 50% and 80% carbon dioxide reduction targets in 2050. The renewable low-carbon pathways require less water withdrawal and consumption than the nuclear and carbon capture pathways. However, the renewable low-carbon pathways modeled in this study produce higher particulate matter-related mortality costs due to greater use of biomass in residential heating. Environmental co-benefits differ among states because of factors such as existing technology stock, resource availability, and environmental and energy policies.

Detection of gene-environment interaction in pedigree data using genome-wide genotypes.

PubMed

Nivard, Michel G; Middeldorp, Christel M; Lubke, Gitta; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Boomsma, Dorret I; Dolan, Conor V

2016-12-01

Heritability may be estimated using phenotypic data collected in relatives or in distantly related individuals using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data. We combined these approaches by re-parameterizing the model proposed by Zaitlen et al and extended this model to include moderation of (total and SNP-based) genetic and environmental variance components by a measured moderator. By means of data simulation, we demonstrated that the type 1 error rates of the proposed test are correct and parameter estimates are accurate. As an application, we considered the moderation by age or year of birth of variance components associated with body mass index (BMI), height, attention problems (AP), and symptoms of anxiety and depression. The genetic variance of BMI was found to increase with age, but the environmental variance displayed a greater increase with age, resulting in a proportional decrease of the heritability of BMI. Environmental variance of height increased with year of birth. The environmental variance of AP increased with age. These results illustrate the assessment of moderation of environmental and genetic effects, when estimating heritability from combined SNP and family data. The assessment of moderation of genetic and environmental variance will enhance our understanding of the genetic architecture of complex traits.

Genetic and environmental melanoma models in fish

PubMed Central

Patton, E Elizabeth; Mitchell, David L; Nairn, Rodney S

2010-01-01

Experimental animal models are extremely valuable for the study of human diseases, especially those with underlying genetic components. The exploitation of various animal models, from fruitflies to mice, has led to major advances in our understanding of the etiologies of many diseases, including cancer. Cutaneous malignant melanoma is a form of cancer for which both environmental insult (i.e., UV) and hereditary predisposition are major causative factors. Fish melanoma models have been used in studies of both spontaneous and induced melanoma formation. Genetic hybrids between platyfish and swordtails, different species of the genus Xiphophorus, have been studied since the 1920s to identify genetic determinants of pigmentation and melanoma formation. Recently, transgenesis has been used to develop zebrafish and medaka models for melanoma research. This review will provide a historical perspective on the use of fish models in melanoma research, and an updated summary of current and prospective studies using these unique experimental systems. PMID:20230482

Development of solute transport models in YMPYRÄ framework to simulate solute migration in military shooting and training areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warsta, L.; Karvonen, T.

2017-12-01

There are currently 25 shooting and training areas in Finland managed by The Finnish Defence Forces (FDF), where military activities can cause contamination of open waters and groundwater reservoirs. In the YMPYRÄ project, a computer software framework is being developed that combines existing open environmental data and proprietary information collected by FDF with computational models to investigate current and prevent future environmental problems. A data centric philosophy is followed in the development of the system, i.e. the models are updated and extended to handle available data from different areas. The results generated by the models are summarized as easily understandable flow and risk maps that can be opened in GIS programs and used in environmental assessments by experts. Substances investigated with the system include explosives and metals such as lead, and both surface and groundwater dominated areas can be simulated. The YMPYRÄ framework is composed of a three dimensional soil and groundwater flow model, several solute transport models and an uncertainty assessment system. Solute transport models in the framework include particle based, stream tube and finite volume based approaches. The models can be used to simulate solute dissolution from source area, transport in the unsaturated layers to groundwater and finally migration in groundwater to water extraction wells and springs. The models can be used to simulate advection, dispersion, equilibrium adsorption on soil particles, solubility and dissolution from solute phase and dendritic solute decay chains. Correct numerical solutions were confirmed by comparing results to analytical 1D and 2D solutions and by comparing the numerical solutions to each other. The particle based and stream tube type solute transport models were useful as they could complement the traditional finite volume based approach which in certain circumstances produced numerical dispersion due to piecewise solution of the governing equations in computational grids and included computationally intensive and in some cases unstable iterative solutions. The YMPYRÄ framework is being developed by WaterHope, Gain Oy, and SITO Oy consulting companies and funded by FDF.

Random regression analyses using B-splines functions to model growth from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle.

PubMed

Baldi, F; Alencar, M M; Albuquerque, L G

2010-12-01

The objective of this work was to estimate covariance functions using random regression models on B-splines functions of animal age, for weights from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle. Data comprised 49,011 records on 2435 females. The model of analysis included fixed effects of contemporary groups, age of dam as quadratic covariable and the population mean trend taken into account by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age. Residual variances were modelled through a step function with four classes. The direct and maternal additive genetic effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects were included as random effects in the model. A total of seventeen analyses, considering linear, quadratic and cubic B-splines functions and up to seven knots, were carried out. B-spline functions of the same order were considered for all random effects. Random regression models on B-splines functions were compared to a random regression model on Legendre polynomials and with a multitrait model. Results from different models of analyses were compared using the REML form of the Akaike Information criterion and Schwarz' Bayesian Information criterion. In addition, the variance components and genetic parameters estimated for each random regression model were also used as criteria to choose the most adequate model to describe the covariance structure of the data. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most adequate to describe the covariance structure of the data. Random regression models using B-spline functions as base functions fitted the data better than Legendre polynomials, especially at mature ages, but higher number of parameters need to be estimated with B-splines functions. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A modeling framework for water- and environmental-resources management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leavesley, G.H.; Markstrom, S.L.; Viger, R.J.

2004-01-01

The interdisciplinary nature and increasing complexity of water- and environmental-resource problems require the use of modeling approaches that can incorporate knowledge from a broad range of scientific disciplines. The large number of distributed hydrological and ecosystem models currently available are composed of a variety of different conceptualizations of the associated processes they simulate. Assessment of the capabilities of these distributed models requires evaluation of the conceptualizations of the individual processes, and the identification of which conceptualizations are most appropriate for various combinations of criteria, such as problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of application. With this knowledge, "optimal" models for specific sets of criteria can be created and applied. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Modular Modeling System (MMS) is an integrated system of computer software that has been developed to provide these model development and application capabilities. MMS supports the integration of models and tools at a variety of levels of modular design. These include individual process models, tightly coupled models, loosely coupled models, and fully-integrated decision support systems. A variety of visualization and statistical tools are also provided. MMS has been coupled with the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework, RiverWare, under a joint USGS-BOR program called the Watershed and River System Management Program. MMS and RiverWare are linked using a shared relational database. The resulting database-centered decision support system provides tools for evaluating and applying optimal resource-allocation and management strategies to complex, operational decisions on multipurpose reservoir systems and watersheds. Management issues being addressed include efficiency of water-resources management, environmental concerns such as meeting flow needs for endangered species, and optimizing operations within the constraints of multiple objectives such as power generation, irrigation, and water conservation. This decision support system approach is being developed, tested, and implemented in the Gunni-son, Yakima, San Juan, Rio Grande, and Truckee River basins of the western United States. Copyright ASCE 2004.

The GeoDataPortal: A Standards-based Environmental Modeling Data Access and Manipulation Toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blodgett, D. L.; Kunicki, T.; Booth, N.; Suftin, I.; Zoerb, R.; Walker, J.

2010-12-01

Environmental modelers from fields of study such as climatology, hydrology, geology, and ecology rely on many data sources and processing methods that are common across these disciplines. Interest in inter-disciplinary, loosely coupled modeling and data sharing is increasing among scientists from the USGS, other agencies, and academia. For example, hydrologic modelers need downscaled climate change scenarios and land cover data summarized for the watersheds they are modeling. Subsequently, ecological modelers are interested in soil moisture information for a particular habitat type as predicted by the hydrologic modeler. The USGS Center for Integrated Data Analytics Geo Data Portal (GDP) project seeks to facilitate this loose model coupling data sharing through broadly applicable open-source web processing services. These services simplify and streamline the time consuming and resource intensive tasks that are barriers to inter-disciplinary collaboration. The GDP framework includes a catalog describing projects, models, data, processes, and how they relate. Using newly introduced data, or sources already known to the catalog, the GDP facilitates access to sub-sets and common derivatives of data in numerous formats on disparate web servers. The GDP performs many of the critical functions needed to summarize data sources into modeling units regardless of scale or volume. A user can specify their analysis zones or modeling units as an Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standard Web Feature Service (WFS). Utilities to cache Shapefiles and other common GIS input formats have been developed to aid in making the geometry available for processing via WFS. Dataset access in the GDP relies primarily on the Unidata NetCDF-Java library’s common data model. Data transfer relies on methods provided by Unidata’s Thematic Real-time Environmental Data Distribution System Data Server (TDS). TDS services of interest include the Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) standard for gridded time series, the OGC’s Web Coverage Service for high-density static gridded data, and Unidata’s CDM-remote for point time series. OGC WFS and Sensor Observation Service (SOS) are being explored as mechanisms to serve and access static or time series data attributed to vector geometry. A set of standardized XML-based output formats allows easy transformation into a wide variety of “model-ready” formats. Interested users will have the option of submitting custom transformations to the GDP or transforming the XML output as a post-process. The GDP project aims to support simple, rapid development of thin user interfaces (like web portals) to commonly needed environmental modeling-related data access and manipulation tools. Standalone, service-oriented components of the GDP framework provide the metadata cataloging, data subset access, and spatial-statistics calculations needed to support interdisciplinary environmental modeling.

Fix my child: The importance of including siblings in clinical assessments.

PubMed

Farnfield, Steve

2017-07-01

This study examined concordance in the attachment strategies of school-aged siblings with reference to environmental risk in terms of poverty and maltreatment. It also investigated the effect of child maltreatment and maternal mental illness on children's psychosocial functioning in terms of the Dynamic-Maturational Model of Attachment and Adaptation (DMM) including unresolved trauma and the DMM Depressed modifier. The attachment strategies of 30 sibling pairs, aged 5-14 years, were assessed using the School-age Assessment of Attachment (SAA). Unlike most previous studies, this study included siblings from large families of two to six children. The main finding was that as environmental risk increases, the diversity of sibling attachment strategies decreases with greater recourse to the DMM Type A3-6 and A/C strategies. Unlike previous studies, the highest level of concordance was found in sibling pairs with the opposite gender. Boys whose mothers had a history of mental illness were significantly more likely than girls to be assessed with the DMM-depression modifier. As danger increases, children in the same family experience more of the same childhood. Further research should focus on single case, intra-familial studies to build a systemic model of the shared environment. Research should also evaluate the effects of environmental risk compared with size of the sibling group on children's attachment strategies. The clinical implications point to the importance of assessing all children in the family using a model built around functional formulation rather than diagnosing the symptoms of a particular child.

Simulation of Malaria Transmission among Households in a Thai Village using Remotely Sensed Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Adimi, Farida; Zollner, Gabriela E.; Coleman, Russell E.

2007-01-01

We have used discrete-event simulation to model the malaria transmission in a Thailand village with approximately 700 residents. Specifically, we model the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. Some of the meteorological and environmental parameters used in the simulation are derived from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and the Ikonos satellite data. Parameters used in the simulations reflect the realistic condition of the village, including the locations and sizes of the households, ages and estimated immunity of the residents, presence of farm animals, and locations of larval habitats. Larval habitats include the actual locations where larvae were collected and the probable locations based on satellite data. The output of the simulation includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Simulated transmission under homogeneous environmental condition was compared with that predicted by a SEIR model. Sensitivity of the output with respect to some extrinsic and intrinsic factors was investigated. Results were compared with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired over 4.5 years (June 1999 - January 2004) in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in Kanchanaburi Province, western Thailand. The simulation method is useful for testing transmission hypotheses, estimating the efficacy of insecticide applications, assessing the impacts of nonimmune immigrants, and predicting the effects of socioeconomic, environmental and climatic changes.

Predicting type 2 diabetes using genetic and environmental risk factors in a multi-ethnic Malaysian cohort.

PubMed

Abdullah, N; Abdul Murad, N A; Mohd Haniff, E A; Syafruddin, S E; Attia, J; Oldmeadow, C; Kamaruddin, M A; Abd Jalal, N; Ismail, N; Ishak, M; Jamal, R; Scott, R J; Holliday, E G

2017-08-01

Malaysia has a high and rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D). While environmental (non-genetic) risk factors for the disease are well established, the role of genetic variations and gene-environment interactions remain understudied in this population. This study aimed to estimate the relative contributions of environmental and genetic risk factors to T2D in Malaysia and also to assess evidence for gene-environment interactions that may explain additional risk variation. This was a case-control study including 1604 Malays, 1654 Chinese and 1728 Indians from the Malaysian Cohort Project. The proportion of T2D risk variance explained by known genetic and environmental factors was assessed by fitting multivariable logistic regression models and evaluating McFadden's pseudo R 2 and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Models with and without the genetic risk score (GRS) were compared using the log likelihood ratio Chi-squared test and AUCs. Multiplicative interaction between genetic and environmental risk factors was assessed via logistic regression within and across ancestral groups. Interactions were assessed for the GRS and its 62 constituent variants. The models including environmental risk factors only had pseudo R 2 values of 16.5-28.3% and AUC of 0.75-0.83. Incorporating a genetic score aggregating 62 T2D-associated risk variants significantly increased the model fit (likelihood ratio P-value of 2.50 × 10 -4 -4.83 × 10 -12 ) and increased the pseudo R 2 by about 1-2% and AUC by 1-3%. None of the gene-environment interactions reached significance after multiple testing adjustment, either for the GRS or individual variants. For individual variants, 33 out of 310 tested associations showed nominal statistical significance with 0.001 < P < 0.05. This study suggests that known genetic risk variants contribute a significant but small amount to overall T2D risk variation in Malaysian population groups. If gene-environment interactions involving common genetic variants exist, they are likely of small effect, requiring substantially larger samples for detection. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. All rights reserved.

Environmental predictors of stunting among children under-five in Somalia: cross-sectional studies from 2007 to 2010.

PubMed

Kinyoki, Damaris K; Berkley, James A; Moloney, Grainne M; Odundo, Elijah O; Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Noor, Abdisalan M

2016-07-28

Stunting among children under five years old is associated with long-term effects on cognitive development, school achievement, economic productivity in adulthood and maternal reproductive outcomes. Accurate estimation of stunting and tools to forecast risk are key to planning interventions. We estimated the prevalence and distribution of stunting among children under five years in Somalia from 2007 to 2010 and explored the role of environmental covariates in its forecasting. Data from household nutritional surveys in Somalia from 2007 to 2010 with a total of 1,066 clusters covering 73,778 children were included. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical space-time model to forecast stunting by using the relationship between observed stunting and environmental covariates in the preceding years. We then applied the model coefficients to environmental covariates in subsequent years. To determine the accuracy of the forecasting, we compared this model with a model that used data from all the years with the corresponding environmental covariates. Rainfall (OR = 0.994, 95 % Credible interval (CrI): 0.993, 0.995) and vegetation cover (OR = 0.719, 95 % CrI: 0.603, 0.858) were significant in forecasting stunting. The difference in estimates of stunting using the two approaches was less than 3 % in all the regions for all forecast years. Stunting in Somalia is spatially and temporally heterogeneous. Rainfall and vegetation are major drivers of these variations. The use of environmental covariates for forecasting of stunting is a potentially useful and affordable tool for planning interventions to reduce the high burden of malnutrition in Somalia.

Use of EPA collaborative problem-solving model to obtain environmental justice in North Carolina.

PubMed

Wilson, Sacoby M; Wilson, Omega R; Heaney, Christopher D; Cooper, John

2007-01-01

The West End Revitalization Association (WERA), a community-based organization (CBO) in Mebane, North Carolina, was awarded a Collaborative Problem-Solving (CPS) grant from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Environmental Justice (EPA OEJ). The purpose of this paper is to highlight WERA's efforts to bring stakeholders in three low-income African-American communities where environmental hazards created public health risks together for collaboration rather than litigation. WERA's board and staff organized nine working groups with specific areas of expertise that would facilitate research, identify lack of basic amenities, and encourage funding for corrective action and participation in progress reporting workshops. WERA used consensus building, dispute resolution, and resource mobilization as part of the CPS model to address noncompliance with environmental laws, including the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Safe Drinking Water Act, Toxic Substances Control Act, and Solid Waste Disposal Act. WERA's CPS "Right to Basic Amenities" project produced a framework for (1) grassroots management and ownership of a collaborative problem-solving process; (2) bringing stakeholders together with diverse and conflicting viewpoints; (3) implementation of an innovative community-owned and managed (COMR) research model; and (4) leveraging millions of dollars to fund installation of first-time municipal water/sewer services, street paving, and relocation of the 119-bypass to advance environmental health solutions. The structure and successes of WERA's Right to Basic Amenities project have been discussed at demonstration and training sessions to help others replicate the model in comparable low-income communities of color in North Carolina and across the United States.

Preliminary assessment of factors influencing riverine fish communities in Massachusetts.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, David S.; Richards, Todd A.; Brandt, Sara L.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation (MDCR), Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MDEP), and the Massachusetts Department of Fish and Game (MDFG), conducted a preliminary investigation of fish communities in small- to medium-sized Massachusetts streams. The objective of this investigation was to determine relations between fish-community characteristics and anthropogenic alteration, including flow alteration and impervious cover, relative to the effect of physical basin and land-cover (environmental) characteristics. Fish data were obtained for 756 fish-sampling sites from the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife fish-community database. A review of the literature was used to select a set of fish metrics responsive to flow alteration. Fish metrics tested include two fish-community metrics (fluvial-fish relative abundance and fluvial-fish species richness), and five indicator species metrics (relative abundance of brook trout, blacknose dace, fallfish, white sucker, and redfin pickerel). Streamflows were simulated for each fish-sampling site using the Sustainable Yield Estimator application (SYE). Daily streamflows and the SYE water-use database were used to determine a set of indicators of flow alteration, including percent alteration of August median flow, water-use intensity, and withdrawal and return-flow fraction. The contributing areas to the fish-sampling sites were delineated and used with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine a set of environmental characteristics, including elevation, basin slope, percent sand and gravel, percent wetland, and percent open water, and a set of anthropogenic-alteration variables, including impervious cover and dam density. Two analytical techniques, quantile regression and generalized linear modeling, were applied to determine the association between fish-response variables and the selected environmental and anthropogenic explanatory variables. Quantile regression indicated that flow alteration and impervious cover were negatively associated with both fluvial-fish relative abundance and fluvial-fish species richness. Three generalized linear models (GLMs) were developed to quantify the response of fish communities to multiple environmental and anthropogenic variables. Flow-alteration variables are statistically significant for the fluvial-fish relative-abundance model. Impervious cover is statistically significant for the fluvial-fish relative-abundance, fluvial-fish species richness, and brook trout relative-abundance models. The variables in the equations were demonstrated to be significant, and the variability explained by the models, as measured by the correlation between observed and predicted values, ranges from 39 to 65 percent. The GLM models indicated that, keeping all other variables the same, a one-unit (1 percent) increase in the percent depletion or percent surcharging of August median flow would result in a 0.4-percent decrease in the relative abundance (in counts per hour) of fluvial fish and that the relative abundance of fluvial fish was expected to be about 55 percent lower in net-depleted streams than in net-surcharged streams. The GLM models also indicated that a unit increase in impervious cover resulted in a 5.5-percent decrease in the relative abundance of fluvial fish and a 2.5-percent decrease in fluvial-fish species richness.

A practical guide to environmental association analysis in landscape genomics.

PubMed

Rellstab, Christian; Gugerli, Felix; Eckert, Andrew J; Hancock, Angela M; Holderegger, Rolf

2015-09-01

Landscape genomics is an emerging research field that aims to identify the environmental factors that shape adaptive genetic variation and the gene variants that drive local adaptation. Its development has been facilitated by next-generation sequencing, which allows for screening thousands to millions of single nucleotide polymorphisms in many individuals and populations at reasonable costs. In parallel, data sets describing environmental factors have greatly improved and increasingly become publicly accessible. Accordingly, numerous analytical methods for environmental association studies have been developed. Environmental association analysis identifies genetic variants associated with particular environmental factors and has the potential to uncover adaptive patterns that are not discovered by traditional tests for the detection of outlier loci based on population genetic differentiation. We review methods for conducting environmental association analysis including categorical tests, logistic regressions, matrix correlations, general linear models and mixed effects models. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches, provide a list of dedicated software packages and their specific properties, and stress the importance of incorporating neutral genetic structure in the analysis. We also touch on additional important aspects such as sampling design, environmental data preparation, pooled and reduced-representation sequencing, candidate-gene approaches, linearity of allele-environment associations and the combination of environmental association analyses with traditional outlier detection tests. We conclude by summarizing expected future directions in the field, such as the extension of statistical approaches, environmental association analysis for ecological gene annotation, and the need for replication and post hoc validation studies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Applications of eco-environmental big data: Progress and prospect].

PubMed

Zhao, Miao Miao; Zhao, Shi Cheng; Zhang, Li Yun; Zhao, Fen; Shao, Rui; Liu, Li Xiang; Zhao, Hai Feng; Xu, Ming

2017-05-18

With the advance of internet and wireless communication technology, the fields of ecology and environment have entered a new digital era with the amount of data growing explosively and big data technologies attracting more and more attention. The eco-environmental big data is based airborne and space-/land-based observations of ecological and environmental factors and its ultimate goal is to integrate multi-source and multi-scale data for information mining by taking advantages of cloud computation, artificial intelligence, and modeling technologies. In comparison with other fields, the eco-environmental big data has its own characteristics, such as diverse data formats and sources, data collected with various protocols and standards, and serving different clients and organizations with special requirements. Big data technology has been applied worldwide in ecological and environmental fields including global climate prediction, ecological network observation and modeling, and regional air pollution control. The development of eco-environmental big data in China is facing many problems, such as data sharing issues, outdated monitoring facilities and techno-logies, and insufficient data mining capacity. Despite all this, big data technology is critical to solving eco-environmental problems, improving prediction and warning accuracy on eco-environmental catastrophes, and boosting scientific research in the field in China. We expected that the eco-environmental big data would contribute significantly to policy making and environmental services and management, and thus the sustainable development and eco-civilization construction in China in the coming decades.

Health risk assessment of emissions of dioxins and furans from a municipal waste incinerator: comparison with other emission sources.

PubMed

Meneses, Montse; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

2004-06-01

The aim of this study was to calculate the incremental lifetime-risk to dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) for the population living in the surroundings of a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI), as well as to establish the potential reduction on human health risks as a consequence of the adaptation to the EU legislation on pollutant emissions from the MSWI stack. Analytical and modelled results were obtained. PCDD/F concentrations in environmental media were determined by means of a simple-compartment-multimedia model (air-soil-vegetation model). Predicted and measured PCDD/F concentrations in soils and vegetation were compared, and the effects of MSWI emissions in the environmental media were determined. Human health risks due to PCDD/F emissions from the MSWI were also estimated based on I-TEQ measured and modelled in various environmental media. Cancer risks due to PCDD/F emissions of the plant were 1.07E-07 and 3.08E-09, before and after installation of the clean air system, respectively. On the other hand, cancer risks due to other PCDD/F emission sources in the area were 5.54E-06 and 1.86E-06. Total PCDD/F cancer risks (including those from diet) for the population living in the vicinity of the MSWI were 1.3E-04 and 4.25E-05, respectively (67.6% of reduction). Hazard ratio for total PCDD/F exposure (including diet) decreased during the last 5 years from 1.16 to 0.38. The above data show that other emission sources of PCDD/Fs also have a notable environmental impact on the area under direct influence of the MSWI.

Insulation Cork Boards-Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of an Organic Construction Material.

PubMed

Silvestre, José D; Pargana, Nuno; de Brito, Jorge; Pinheiro, Manuel D; Durão, Vera

2016-05-20

Envelope insulation is a relevant technical solution to cut energy consumption and reduce environmental impacts in buildings. Insulation Cork Boards (ICB) are a natural thermal insulation material whose production promotes the recycling of agricultural waste. The aim of this paper is to determine and evaluate the environmental impacts of the production, use, and end-of-life processing of ICB. A "cradle-to-cradle" environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was performed according to International LCA standards and the European standards on the environmental evaluation of buildings. These results were based on site-specific data and resulted from a consistent methodology, fully described in the paper for each life cycle stage: Cork oak tree growth, ICB production, and end-of-life processing-modeling of the carbon flows ( i.e. , uptakes and emissions), including sensitivity analysis of this procedure; at the production stage-the modeling of energy processes and a sensitivity analysis of the allocation procedures; during building operation-the expected service life of ICB; an analysis concerning the need to consider the thermal diffusivity of ICB in the comparison of the performance of insulation materials. This paper presents the up-to-date "cradle-to-cradle" environmental performance of ICB for the environmental categories and life-cycle stages defined in European standards.

Insulation Cork Boards—Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of an Organic Construction Material

PubMed Central

Silvestre, José D.; Pargana, Nuno; de Brito, Jorge; Pinheiro, Manuel D.; Durão, Vera

2016-01-01

Envelope insulation is a relevant technical solution to cut energy consumption and reduce environmental impacts in buildings. Insulation Cork Boards (ICB) are a natural thermal insulation material whose production promotes the recycling of agricultural waste. The aim of this paper is to determine and evaluate the environmental impacts of the production, use, and end-of-life processing of ICB. A “cradle-to-cradle” environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was performed according to International LCA standards and the European standards on the environmental evaluation of buildings. These results were based on site-specific data and resulted from a consistent methodology, fully described in the paper for each life cycle stage: Cork oak tree growth, ICB production, and end-of-life processing-modeling of the carbon flows (i.e., uptakes and emissions), including sensitivity analysis of this procedure; at the production stage—the modeling of energy processes and a sensitivity analysis of the allocation procedures; during building operation—the expected service life of ICB; an analysis concerning the need to consider the thermal diffusivity of ICB in the comparison of the performance of insulation materials. This paper presents the up-to-date “cradle-to-cradle” environmental performance of ICB for the environmental categories and life-cycle stages defined in European standards. PMID:28773516

Inoculation Stress Hypothesis of Environmental Enrichment

PubMed Central

Crofton, Elizabeth J.; Zhang, Yafang; Green, Thomas A.

2014-01-01

One hallmark of psychiatric conditions is the vast continuum of individual differences in susceptibility vs. resilience resulting from the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. The environmental enrichment paradigm is an animal model that is useful for studying a range of psychiatric conditions, including protective phenotypes in addiction and depression models. The major question is how environmental enrichment, a non-drug and non-surgical manipulation, can produce such robust individual differences in such a wide range of behaviors. This paper draws from a variety of published sources to outline a coherent hypothesis of inoculation stress as a factor producing the protective enrichment phenotypes. The basic tenet suggests that chronic mild stress from living in a complex environment and interacting non-aggressively with conspecifics can inoculate enriched rats against subsequent stressors and/or drugs of abuse. This paper reviews the enrichment phenotypes, mulls the fundamental nature of environmental enrichment vs. isolation, discusses the most appropriate control for environmental enrichment, and challenges the idea that cortisol/corticosterone equals stress. The intent of the inoculation stress hypothesis of environmental enrichment is to provide a scaffold with which to build testable hypotheses for the elucidation of the molecular mechanisms underlying these protective phenotypes and thus provide new therapeutic targets to treat psychiatric/neurological conditions. PMID:25449533

Inoculation stress hypothesis of environmental enrichment.

PubMed

Crofton, Elizabeth J; Zhang, Yafang; Green, Thomas A

2015-02-01

One hallmark of psychiatric conditions is the vast continuum of individual differences in susceptibility vs. resilience resulting from the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. The environmental enrichment paradigm is an animal model that is useful for studying a range of psychiatric conditions, including protective phenotypes in addiction and depression models. The major question is how environmental enrichment, a non-drug and non-surgical manipulation, can produce such robust individual differences in such a wide range of behaviors. This paper draws from a variety of published sources to outline a coherent hypothesis of inoculation stress as a factor producing the protective enrichment phenotypes. The basic tenet suggests that chronic mild stress from living in a complex environment and interacting non-aggressively with conspecifics can inoculate enriched rats against subsequent stressors and/or drugs of abuse. This paper reviews the enrichment phenotypes, mulls the fundamental nature of environmental enrichment vs. isolation, discusses the most appropriate control for environmental enrichment, and challenges the idea that cortisol/corticosterone equals stress. The intent of the inoculation stress hypothesis of environmental enrichment is to provide a scaffold with which to build testable hypotheses for the elucidation of the molecular mechanisms underlying these protective phenotypes and thus provide new therapeutic targets to treat psychiatric/neurological conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Combined Modeling Approach to Evaluate Water Quality Benefits of Riparian Buffers in the Jobos Bay Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Jobos Bay Watershed, located in south-central Puerto Rico, is a tropical Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) Special Emphasis Watershed. The purpose of CEAP is to quantify environmental benefits of conservation practices and includes field and watershed modeling. In Jobos Bay, the goa...

76 FR 40662 - Federal Implementation Plans for Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin To...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-11

... Technology Transfer Advancement Act J. Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions To Address Environmental... modeling platform and data inputs EPA proposed to use to support the final Transport Rule. Notice of Data... Rule modeling, including the emissions inventories for the six states identified above. EPA provided...

Planning the City Logistics Terminal Location by Applying the Green p-Median Model and Type-2 Neurofuzzy Network

PubMed Central

Pamučar, Dragan; Vasin, Ljubislav; Atanasković, Predrag; Miličić, Milica

2016-01-01

The paper herein presents green p-median problem (GMP) which uses the adaptive type-2 neural network for the processing of environmental and sociological parameters including costs of logistics operators and demonstrates the influence of these parameters on planning the location for the city logistics terminal (CLT) within the discrete network. CLT shows direct effects on increment of traffic volume especially in urban areas, which further results in negative environmental effects such as air pollution and noise as well as increased number of urban populations suffering from bronchitis, asthma, and similar respiratory infections. By applying the green p-median model (GMM), negative effects on environment and health in urban areas caused by delivery vehicles may be reduced to minimum. This model creates real possibilities for making the proper investment decisions so as profitable investments may be realized in the field of transport infrastructure. The paper herein also includes testing of GMM in real conditions on four CLT locations in Belgrade City zone. PMID:27195005

Planning the City Logistics Terminal Location by Applying the Green p-Median Model and Type-2 Neurofuzzy Network.

PubMed

Pamučar, Dragan; Vasin, Ljubislav; Atanasković, Predrag; Miličić, Milica

2016-01-01

The paper herein presents green p-median problem (GMP) which uses the adaptive type-2 neural network for the processing of environmental and sociological parameters including costs of logistics operators and demonstrates the influence of these parameters on planning the location for the city logistics terminal (CLT) within the discrete network. CLT shows direct effects on increment of traffic volume especially in urban areas, which further results in negative environmental effects such as air pollution and noise as well as increased number of urban populations suffering from bronchitis, asthma, and similar respiratory infections. By applying the green p-median model (GMM), negative effects on environment and health in urban areas caused by delivery vehicles may be reduced to minimum. This model creates real possibilities for making the proper investment decisions so as profitable investments may be realized in the field of transport infrastructure. The paper herein also includes testing of GMM in real conditions on four CLT locations in Belgrade City zone.

Trees grow on money: urban tree canopy cover and environmental justice.

PubMed

Schwarz, Kirsten; Fragkias, Michail; Boone, Christopher G; Zhou, Weiqi; McHale, Melissa; Grove, J Morgan; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath; McFadden, Joseph P; Buckley, Geoffrey L; Childers, Dan; Ogden, Laura; Pincetl, Stephanie; Pataki, Diane; Whitmer, Ali; Cadenasso, Mary L

2015-01-01

This study examines the distributional equity of urban tree canopy (UTC) cover for Baltimore, MD, Los Angeles, CA, New York, NY, Philadelphia, PA, Raleigh, NC, Sacramento, CA, and Washington, D.C. using high spatial resolution land cover data and census data. Data are analyzed at the Census Block Group levels using Spearman's correlation, ordinary least squares regression (OLS), and a spatial autoregressive model (SAR). Across all cities there is a strong positive correlation between UTC cover and median household income. Negative correlations between race and UTC cover exist in bivariate models for some cities, but they are generally not observed using multivariate regressions that include additional variables on income, education, and housing age. SAR models result in higher r-square values compared to the OLS models across all cities, suggesting that spatial autocorrelation is an important feature of our data. Similarities among cities can be found based on shared characteristics of climate, race/ethnicity, and size. Our findings suggest that a suite of variables, including income, contribute to the distribution of UTC cover. These findings can help target simultaneous strategies for UTC goals and environmental justice concerns.

Understanding and modeling the economics of ECM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, Wayne E.; Edinbarough, Immanuel A.

2004-12-01

Traditional economic analysis methods for manufacturing decisions include only the clearly identified immediate cost and revenue streams. Environmental issues have generally been seen as costs, in the form of waste material losses, conformance tests and pre-discharge treatments. The components of the waste stream often purchased as raw materials, become liabilities at the "end of the pipe" and their intrinsic material value is seldom recognized. A new mathematical treatment of manufacturing economics is proposed in which the costs of separation are compared with the intrinsic value of the waste materials to show how their recovery can provide an economic advantage to the manufacturer. The model is based on a unique combination of thermodynamic analysis, economic modeling and linear optimization. This paper describes the proposed model, and examines case studies in which the changed decision rules have yielded significant savings while protecting the environment. The premise proposed is that by including the value of the waste materials in the profit objective of the firm and applying the appropriate technological solution, manufacturing processes can become closed systems in which losses approach zero and environmental problems are converted into economic savings.

Estimating Density and Temperature Dependence of Juvenile Vital Rates Using a Hidden Markov Model

PubMed Central

McElderry, Robert M.

2017-01-01

Organisms in the wild have cryptic life stages that are sensitive to changing environmental conditions and can be difficult to survey. In this study, I used mark-recapture methods to repeatedly survey Anaea aidea (Nymphalidae) caterpillars in nature, then modeled caterpillar demography as a hidden Markov process to assess if temporal variability in temperature and density influence the survival and growth of A. aidea over time. Individual encounter histories result from the joint likelihood of being alive and observed in a particular stage, and I have included hidden states by separating demography and observations into parallel and independent processes. I constructed a demographic matrix containing the probabilities of all possible fates for each stage, including hidden states, e.g., eggs and pupae. I observed both dead and live caterpillars with high probability. Peak caterpillar abundance attracted multiple predators, and survival of fifth instars declined as per capita predation rate increased through spring. A time lag between predator and prey abundance was likely the cause of improved fifth instar survival estimated at high density. Growth rates showed an increase with temperature, but the preferred model did not include temperature. This work illustrates how state-space models can include unobservable stages and hidden state processes to evaluate how environmental factors influence vital rates of cryptic life stages in the wild. PMID:28505138

Advanced methods for modeling water-levels and estimating drawdowns with SeriesSEE, an Excel add-in

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halford, Keith; Garcia, C. Amanda; Fenelon, Joe; Mirus, Benjamin B.

2012-12-21

Water-level modeling is used for multiple-well aquifer tests to reliably differentiate pumping responses from natural water-level changes in wells, or “environmental fluctuations.” Synthetic water levels are created during water-level modeling and represent the summation of multiple component fluctuations, including those caused by environmental forcing and pumping. Pumping signals are modeled by transforming step-wise pumping records into water-level changes by using superimposed Theis functions. Water-levels can be modeled robustly with this Theis-transform approach because environmental fluctuations and pumping signals are simulated simultaneously. Water-level modeling with Theis transforms has been implemented in the program SeriesSEE, which is a Microsoft® Excel add-in. Moving average, Theis, pneumatic-lag, and gamma functions transform time series of measured values into water-level model components in SeriesSEE. Earth tides and step transforms are additional computed water-level model components. Water-level models are calibrated by minimizing a sum-of-squares objective function where singular value decomposition and Tikhonov regularization stabilize results. Drawdown estimates from a water-level model are the summation of all Theis transforms minus residual differences between synthetic and measured water levels. The accuracy of drawdown estimates is limited primarily by noise in the data sets, not the Theis-transform approach. Drawdowns much smaller than environmental fluctuations have been detected across major fault structures, at distances of more than 1 mile from the pumping well, and with limited pre-pumping and recovery data at sites across the United States. In addition to water-level modeling, utilities exist in SeriesSEE for viewing, cleaning, manipulating, and analyzing time-series data.

Transcript and protein environmental biomarkers in fish--a review.

PubMed

Tom, Moshe; Auslander, Meirav

2005-04-01

The levels of contaminant-affected gene products (transcripts and proteins) are increasingly utilized as environmental biomarkers, and their appropriate implementation as diagnostic tools is discussed. The required characteristics of a gene product biomarker are accurate evaluation using properly normalized absolute units, aiming at long-term comparability of biomarker levels over a wide geographical range and among many laboratories. Quantitative RT-PCR and competitive ELISA are suggested as preferred evaluation methods for transcript and protein, respectively. Constitutively expressed RNAs or proteins which are part of the examined homogenate are suggested as normalizing agents, compensating for variable processing efficiency. Essential characterization of expression patterns is suggested, providing reference values to be compared to the monitored levels. This comparison would enable estimation of the intensity of biological effects of contaminants. Contaminant-independent reference expression patterns should include natural fluctuations of the biomarker level. Contaminant-dependent patterns should include dose response to model contaminants chronically administered in two environmentally-realistic routes, reaching extreme sub-lethal affected levels. Recent studies using fish as environmental sentinel species, applying gene products as environmental biomarkers, and implementing at least part of the depicted methodologies are reviewed.

Meta-analysis of studies using suppression subtractive hybridization and microarrays to investigate the effects of environmental stress on gene transcription in oysters.

PubMed

Anderson, Kelli; Taylor, Daisy A; Thompson, Emma L; Melwani, Aroon R; Nair, Sham V; Raftos, David A

2015-01-01

Many microarray and suppression subtractive hybridization (SSH) studies have analyzed the effects of environmental stress on gene transcription in marine species. However, there have been no unifying analyses of these data to identify common stress response pathways. To address this shortfall, we conducted a meta-analysis of 14 studies that investigated the effects of different environmental stressors on gene expression in oysters. The stressors tested included chemical contamination, hypoxia and infection, as well as extremes of temperature, pH and turbidity. We found that the expression of over 400 genes in a range of oyster species changed significantly after exposure to environmental stress. A repeating pattern was evident in these transcriptional responses, regardless of the type of stress applied. Many of the genes that responded to environmental stress encoded proteins involved in translation and protein processing (including molecular chaperones), the mitochondrial electron transport chain, anti-oxidant activity and the cytoskeleton. In light of these findings, we put forward a consensus model of sub-cellular stress responses in oysters.

Meta-Analysis of Studies Using Suppression Subtractive Hybridization and Microarrays to Investigate the Effects of Environmental Stress on Gene Transcription in Oysters

PubMed Central

Thompson, Emma L.; Melwani, Aroon R.; Nair, Sham V.; Raftos, David A.

2015-01-01

Many microarray and suppression subtractive hybridization (SSH) studies have analyzed the effects of environmental stress on gene transcription in marine species. However, there have been no unifying analyses of these data to identify common stress response pathways. To address this shortfall, we conducted a meta-analysis of 14 studies that investigated the effects of different environmental stressors on gene expression in oysters. The stressors tested included chemical contamination, hypoxia and infection, as well as extremes of temperature, pH and turbidity. We found that the expression of over 400 genes in a range of oyster species changed significantly after exposure to environmental stress. A repeating pattern was evident in these transcriptional responses, regardless of the type of stress applied. Many of the genes that responded to environmental stress encoded proteins involved in translation and protein processing (including molecular chaperones), the mitochondrial electron transport chain, anti-oxidant activity and the cytoskeleton. In light of these findings, we put forward a consensus model of sub-cellular stress responses in oysters. PMID:25768438

Development of a numerical model for calculating exposure to toxic and nontoxic stressors in the water column and sediment from drilling discharges.

PubMed

Rye, Henrik; Reed, Mark; Frost, Tone Karin; Smit, Mathijs G D; Durgut, Ismail; Johansen, Øistein; Ditlevsen, May Kristin

2008-04-01

Drilling discharges are complex mixtures of chemical components and particles which might lead to toxic and nontoxic stress in the environment. In order to be able to evaluate the potential environmental consequences of such discharges in the water column and in sediments, a numerical model was developed. The model includes water column stratification, ocean currents and turbulence, natural burial, bioturbation, and biodegradation of organic matter in the sediment. Accounting for these processes, the fate of the discharge is modeled for the water column, including near-field mixing and plume motion, far-field mixing, and transport. The fate of the discharge is also modeled for the sediment, including sea floor deposition, and mixing due to bioturbation. Formulas are provided for the calculation of suspended matter and chemical concentrations in the water column, and burial, change in grain size, oxygen depletion, and chemical concentrations in the sediment. The model is fully 3-dimensional and time dependent. It uses a Lagrangian approach for the water column based on moving particles that represent the properties of the release and an Eulerian approach for the sediment based on calculation of the properties of matter in a grid. The model will be used to calculate the environmental risk, both in the water column and in sediments, from drilling discharges. It can serve as a tool to define risk mitigating measures, and as such it provides guidance towards the "zero harm" goal.

Environmental contributions to otitis media requiring tympanostomy tubes.

PubMed

Padia, Reema; Alt, Jeremiah A; Curtin, Karen; Muntz, Harlan R; Orlandi, Richard R; Berger, Justin; Meier, Jeremy D

2017-10-01

Otitis media requiring tympanostomy tubes (OMwTT) is a prevalent disease process that has been previously shown to have a strong familial link. The impact from the environmental versus genetic contributions to this link is unknown. The objective was to determine the environmental involvement in the development of OMwTT. Using an extensive genealogical database linked to medical records, we evaluated the risk of OMwTT in children of probands as compared to children of controls, individually matched 5:1 on sex and birth year, from a conditional logistic regression model. The model included adjustments for geographic and socioeconomic environmental risk factors mapped to residence location of study subjects within 63 small health statistical areas of ∼33,500 persons each. 37,814 case probands diagnosed with OMwTT and 181,339 controls were included in our analysis. Children of probands with OMwTT had an overall 2.5× higher risk of also having OMwTT as compared to the children of controls (p < 10 -9 ), independent of environmental factors (PM 2.5 [particulate matter] air pollution, education level of parents, and density of primary care providers). After accounting for geographic and socioeconomic differences that may influence risk between cases and controls, our findings suggest evidence of a genetic predisposition in families of OMwTT patients. Further characterization of high-risk pedigrees is needed for future genomic studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental health attitudes and behaviors: findings from a large pregnancy cohort study.

PubMed

Barrett, Emily S; Sathyanarayana, Sheela; Janssen, Sarah; Redmon, J Bruce; Nguyen, Ruby H N; Kobrosly, Roni; Swan, Shanna H

2014-05-01

Environmental chemicals are widely found in food and personal care products and may have adverse effects on fetal development. Our aim was to examine women's attitudes about these chemicals and ask whether they try to limit their exposure during pregnancy. A multi-center cohort of women in the first trimester of pregnancy completed questionnaires including items on attitudes and behaviors related to environmental chemicals. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine: (1) whether sociodemographic variables predict environmental health attitudes and behaviors; and (2) whether women's attitudes about environmental chemicals affect their lifestyle behaviors, particularly diet and personal care product use. Of the 894 subjects, approximately 60% strongly agreed that environmental chemicals are dangerous and 25% strongly felt they were impossible to avoid. Adjusting for covariates, educated women were more likely to believe that environmental chemicals are dangerous (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.13, 2.66), and that belief, in turn, was associated with a number of healthy behaviors including choosing organic foods, foods in safe plastics, and chemical-free personal care products, and limiting fast food intake. Younger women were more likely to believe that environmental chemicals are impossible to avoid (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00, 1.08). Women's attitudes about environmental chemicals may impact their choices during pregnancy. Overcoming a lack of concern about environmental chemicals, particularly among certain sociodemographic groups, is important for the success of clinical or public health prevention measures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental health attitudes and behaviors: findings from a large pregnancy cohort study

PubMed Central

Barrett, Emily S.; Sathyanarayana, Sheela; Janssen, Sarah; Redmon, J. Bruce; Nguyen, Ruby H.N.; Kobrosly, Roni; Swan, Shanna H.

2014-01-01

Objective Environmental chemicals are widely found in food and personal care products and may have adverse effects on fetal development. Our aim was to examine women’s attitudes about these chemicals and ask whether they try to limit their exposure during pregnancy. Study design A multi-center cohort of women in the first trimester of pregnancy completed questionnaires including items on attitudes and behaviors related to environmental chemicals. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine: (1) whether sociodemographic variables predict environmental health attitudes and behaviors; and (2) whether women’s attitudes about environmental chemicals affect their lifestyle behaviors, particularly diet and personal care product use. Results Of the 894 subjects, approximately 60% strongly agreed that environmental chemicals are dangerous and 25% strongly felt they were impossible to avoid. Adjusting for covariates, educated women were more likely to believe that environmental chemicals are dangerous (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.13, 2.66), and that belief, in turn, was associated with a number of healthy behaviors including choosing organic foods, foods in safe plastics, and chemical-free personal care products, and limiting fast food intake. Younger women were more likely to believe environmental chemicals are impossible to avoid (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00, 1.08). Conclusions Women’s attitudes about environmental chemicals may impact their choices during pregnancy. Overcoming a lack of concern about environmental chemicals, particularly among certain sociodemographic groups, is important for the success of clinical or public health prevention measures. PMID:24647207

Socio-Hydrologic Modeling: Characterizing the Dynamics of Coupled Human-Water Systems Using Natural Science Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivapalan, M.; Elshafei, Y.; Srinivasan, V.

2014-12-01

A challenging research puzzle in the research on sustainable water management in the Anthropocene is why some societies successfully recover from "ecological destruction" to transition to "successful adaptation" over decadal timescales, while others fail. We present a conceptual modeling framework to understand and characterize these transitions. In this way, we aim to capture the potential drivers of the desired shift towards achieving sustainability of socio-hydrological systems. This is done through a synthesis of detailed socio-hydrological analyses of four river basins in three continents, carried out using different quantitative socio-hydrologic models: Murrumbidgee River Basin in eastern Australia, Lake Toolibin Catchment in Western Australia, Tarim River Basin in Western China and Kissimmee River Basin, in south-east United States. The case studies are analysed using either place-based models designed specifically to mimic observed long-term socio-hydrologic trends, or generic conceptual models with foundations in diverse strands of literature including sustainability science and resilience theory. A comparative analysis of the four case studies reveals a commonality in the building blocks employed to model these socio-hydrologic systems; including water balance, economic, environmental and human-feedback components. Each model reveals varying interpretations of a common organising principle that could explain the shift between productive (socio-economic) and restorative (environmental) forces that was evident in each of these systems observed over a long time frame. The emergent principle is related to the essential drivers of the human feedback component and rests with a general formulation of human well-being, as reflected by both their economic and environmental well-being. It is envisaged that the understanding of the system drivers gained from such a comparative study would enable more targeted water management strategies that can be administered in developing basins to achieve overall sustainability.

Designing an End-to-End System for Data Storage, Analysis, and Visualization for an Urban Environmental Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, M. P.; Welty, C.; Gangopadhyay, A.; Karabatis, G.; Chen, Z.

2006-05-01

The urban environment is formed by complex interactions between natural and human dominated systems, the study of which requires the collection and analysis of very large datasets that span many disciplines. Recent advances in sensor technology and automated data collection have improved the ability to monitor urban environmental systems and are making the idea of an urban environmental observatory a reality. This in turn has created a number of potential challenges in data management and analysis. We present the design of an end-to-end system to store, analyze, and visualize data from a prototype urban environmental observatory based at the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, a National Science Foundation Long Term Ecological Research site (BES LTER). We first present an object-relational design of an operational database to store high resolution spatial datasets as well as data from sensor networks, archived data from the BES LTER, data from external sources such as USGS NWIS, EPA Storet, and metadata. The second component of the system design includes a spatiotemporal data warehouse consisting of a data staging plan and a multidimensional data model designed for the spatiotemporal analysis of monitoring data. The system design also includes applications for multi-resolution exploratory data analysis, multi-resolution data mining, and spatiotemporal visualization based on the spatiotemporal data warehouse. Also the system design includes interfaces with water quality models such as HSPF, SWMM, and SWAT, and applications for real-time sensor network visualization, data discovery, data download, QA/QC, and backup and recovery, all of which are based on the operational database. The system design includes both internet and workstation-based interfaces. Finally we present the design of a laboratory for spatiotemporal analysis and visualization as well as real-time monitoring of the sensor network.

Environmental interactions in space exploration: Environmental interactions working group

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolecki, Joseph C.; Hillard, G. Barry

1992-01-01

With the advent of the Space Exploration Initiative, the possibility of designing and using systems on scales heretofore unattempted presents exciting new challenges in systems design and space science. The environments addressed by the Space Exploration Initiative include the surfaces of the Moon and Mars, as well as the varied plasma and field environments which will be encountered by humans and cargo enroute to these destinations. Systems designers will need to understand environmental interactions and be able to model these mechanisms from the earliest conceptual design stages through design completion. To the end of understanding environmental interactions and establishing robotic precursor mission requirements, an Environmental Interactions Working Group was established as part of the Robotic Missions Working Group. The working group is described, and its current activities are updated.

Physical activity in Latinas: social and environmental influences

PubMed Central

Larsen, Britta A; Pekmezi, Dorothy; Marquez, Becky; Benitez, Tanya J; Marcus, Bess H

2013-01-01

Latinas are the largest, fastest growing female ethnic minority group in the USA, and also report the lowest levels of physical activity. Following the framework of the social ecological model, this review examines unique social and environmental factors that influence physical activity in Latinas. Research shows that Latinas receive little social support for activity despite having large, close-knit social networks. Interventions incorporating social support components are generally effcacious. Latinas also face many environmental barriers, including crime, heat, traffic, lack of facilities and a fear of immigration enforcement, and there have been few attempts to address environmental barriers in Latino communities. Successful future interventions will need to consider unique social and environmental barriers affecting Latinas, and help Latinas learn to incorporate social networks into physical activity participation. PMID:23477325

High Power Microwave Tube Reliability Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-08-01

Factors . . . . . ................ 67 1. Environmental Factors . . . . . . . . . a. Ground Fixed ...... .......... 67 b. Ground Mobile ...including cube structure and operating parameters as factors in the models but also environment and aplication . Initially, the tubes to be included in...instLllations. Mobile ground based and seagoing systems have minimum restrictions, spacecraft systems the maximum and airborne system Y 6 .*.. restrictionts

40 CFR 60.2630 - What should I include in my waste management plan?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... management plan? 60.2630 Section 60.2630 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED... Compliance Times for Commercial and Industrial Solid Waste Incineration Units that Commenced Construction On or Before November 30, 1999 Model Rule-Waste Management Plan § 60.2630 What should I include in my...

40 CFR 60.3012 - What should I include in my waste management plan?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... management plan? 60.3012 Section 60.3012 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED... Compliance Times for Other Solid Waste Incineration Units That Commenced Construction On or Before December 9, 2004 Model Rule-Waste Management Plan § 60.3012 What should I include in my waste management plan? A...

Implications of the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster: Man-Made Hazards, Vulnerability Factors, and Risk to Environmental Health.

PubMed

Eddy, Christopher; Sase, Eriko

2015-01-01

The objective of this article was to examine the environmental health implications of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster from an all-hazards perspective. The authors performed a literature review that included Japanese and international nuclear guidance and policy, scientific papers, and reports on the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island disasters while also considering all-hazards preparedness rubrics in the U.S. The examination of the literature resulted in the following: a) the authors' "All-Hazards Planning Reference Model" that distinguishes three planning categories-Disaster Trigger Event, Man-Made Hazards, and Vulnerability Factors; b) the generalization of their model to other countries; and c) advocacy for environmental health end fate to be considered in planning phases to minimize risk to environmental health. This article discusses inconsistencies in disaster planning and nomenclature existing in the studied materials and international guidance and proposes new opportunity for developing predisaster risk assessment, risk communication, and prevention capacity building.

The atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft: A current consensus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, A. R.; Carroll, M. A.; Demore, W. B.; Holton, J. R.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Johnston, H. S.; Ko, M. K. W.

1991-01-01

In the early 1970's, a fleet of supersonic aircraft flying in the lower stratosphere was proposed. A large fleet was never built for economic, political, and environmental reasons. Technological improvements may make it economically feasible to develop supersonic aircraft for current markets. Some key results of earlier scientific programs designed to assess the impact of aircraft emissions on stratospheric ozone are reviewed, and factors that must be considered to assess the environmental impact of aircraft exhaust are discussed. These include the amount of nitrogen oxides injected in the stratosphere, horizontal transport, and stratosphere/troposphere assessment models are presented. Areas in which improvements in scientific understanding and model representation must be made to reduce the uncertainty in model calculations are identified.

Statistical modeling of space shuttle environmental data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tubbs, J. D.; Brewer, D. W.

1983-01-01

Statistical models which use a class of bivariate gamma distribution are examined. Topics discussed include: (1) the ratio of positively correlated gamma varieties; (2) a method to determine if unequal shape parameters are necessary in bivariate gamma distribution; (3) differential equations for modal location of a family of bivariate gamma distribution; and (4) analysis of some wind gust data using the analytical results developed for modeling application.

From ecological test site to geographic information system: lessons for the 1980's

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, Robert H.

1981-01-01

Geographic information systems were common elements in two kinds of interdisciplinary regional demonstration projects in the 1970's. Ecological test sits attempted to provide for more efficient remote-sensing data delivery for regional environmental management. Regional environmental systems analysis attempted to formally describe and model the interacting regional social and environmental processes, including the resource-use decision making process. Lessons for the 1980's are drawn from recent evaluations and assessments of these programs, focusing on cost, rates of system development and technology transfer, program coordination, integrative analysis capability, and the involvement of system users and decision makers.

Impact of Jovian radiation environmental hazard on spacecraft and mission development design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Divita, E.

1972-01-01

The environmental impact on the TOPS 12L configuration is discussed. The activities in system environmental design and testing are described, and radiation design restraints based on the upper limit model are given. Range energy cutoffs in aluminum are also presented and the effective shielding thicknesses for electrons and protons of different energies are included. Design integration problems and radiation testing aspects are considered. Data are given for selecting the parts which should be tested in a formal test program, and the piece-part radiation thresholds are tabulated for electrons and protons.

A Modelling Study for Predicting Life of Downhole Tubes Considering Service Environmental Parameters and Stress

PubMed Central

Zhao, Tianliang; Liu, Zhiyong; Du, Cuiwei; Hu, Jianpeng; Li, Xiaogang

2016-01-01

A modelling effort was made to try to predict the life of downhole tubes or casings, synthetically considering the effect of service influencing factors on corrosion rate. Based on the discussed corrosion mechanism and corrosion processes of downhole tubes, a mathematic model was established. For downhole tubes, the influencing factors are environmental parameters and stress, which vary with service duration. Stress and the environmental parameters including water content, partial pressure of H2S and CO2, pH value, total pressure and temperature, were considered to be time-dependent. Based on the model, life-span of an L80 downhole tube in oilfield Halfaya, an oilfield in Iraq, was predicted. The results show that life-span of the L80 downhole tube in Halfaya is 247 months (approximately 20 years) under initial stress of 0.1 yield strength and 641 months (approximately 53 years) under no initial stress, which indicates that an initial stress of 0.1 yield strength will reduce the life-span by more than half. PMID:28773872

Response to Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s ten questions pertaining to site-specific models for use in the license termination rule: Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buck, J.W.; Whelan, G.; Strenge, D.L.

This paper is in response to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) ten questions posed at the Modeling Workshop held November 13 and 14, 1997. The ten questions were developed in advance of the workshop to allow model developers to prepare a presentation at the Workshop. This paper is an expanded version of the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) presentation given at the Modeling Workshop by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) staff. This paper is organized by the ten questions asked by the NRC, each section devoted to a single question. The current version of methodology is MEPAS 3.2more » (NRC 1997) and the discussion in this paper will pertain to that version. In some cases, MEPAS 4.0, which is currently being developed under the Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) (Whelan et al. 1997), will be referenced to inform the reader of potential capabilities in the near future. A separate paper is included in the document that discusses the FRAMES concept.« less

Linear mixed model for heritability estimation that explicitly addresses environmental variation.

PubMed

Heckerman, David; Gurdasani, Deepti; Kadie, Carl; Pomilla, Cristina; Carstensen, Tommy; Martin, Hilary; Ekoru, Kenneth; Nsubuga, Rebecca N; Ssenyomo, Gerald; Kamali, Anatoli; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Widmer, Christian; Sandhu, Manjinder S

2016-07-05

The linear mixed model (LMM) is now routinely used to estimate heritability. Unfortunately, as we demonstrate, LMM estimates of heritability can be inflated when using a standard model. To help reduce this inflation, we used a more general LMM with two random effects-one based on genomic variants and one based on easily measured spatial location as a proxy for environmental effects. We investigated this approach with simulated data and with data from a Uganda cohort of 4,778 individuals for 34 phenotypes including anthropometric indices, blood factors, glycemic control, blood pressure, lipid tests, and liver function tests. For the genomic random effect, we used identity-by-descent estimates from accurately phased genome-wide data. For the environmental random effect, we constructed a covariance matrix based on a Gaussian radial basis function. Across the simulated and Ugandan data, narrow-sense heritability estimates were lower using the more general model. Thus, our approach addresses, in part, the issue of "missing heritability" in the sense that much of the heritability previously thought to be missing was fictional. Software is available at https://github.com/MicrosoftGenomics/FaST-LMM.

Managing flowback and produced water from hydraulic fracturing under stochastic environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Sun, A. Y.; Duncan, I. J.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2017-12-01

A large volume of wastewater is being generated from hydraulic fracturing in shale gas plays, including flowback and produced water. The produced wastewater in terms of its quantity and quality has become one of the main environmental problems facing shale gas industries worldwide. Cost-effective planning and management of flowback and produced water is highly desirable. Careful choice of treatment, disposal, and reuse options can lower costs and reduce potential environmental impacts. To handle the recourse issue in decision-making, a two-stage stochastic management model is developed to provide optimal alternatives for fracturing wastewater management. The proposed model is capable of prompting corrective actions to allow decision makers to adjust the pre-defined management strategies. By using this two-stage model, potential penalties arising from decision infeasibility can be minimized. The applicability of the proposed model is demonstrated using a representative synthetic example, in which tradeoffs between economic and environmental goals are quantified. This approach can generate informed defensible decisions for shale gas wastewater management. In addition, probabilistic and non-probabilistic uncertainties are effectively addressed.

Use of Participatory Systems Dynamics Modelling to Generate User-Friendly Decision Support Systems for the Design of Management Policies for Complex Human-Environmental Systems: A Case Study from the Varied Socio-environmental Landscape of Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Baig, A. I.; Carrera, J.; Mellini, L.; Pineda, P.; Monterroso, O.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.; Adamowski, J. F.; Halbe, J.; Monardes, H.; Gálvez, J.

2014-12-01

The design of effective management policies for socioenvironmental systems requires the development of comprehensive, yet sufficiently simple, decision support systems (DSS) for policy makers. Guatemala is a particularly complex case, combining an enormous diversity of climates, geographies, and agroecosystems within a very small geographical scale. Although food insecurity levels are very high, indicating a generally inadequate management of the varied agroecosystems of the country, different regions have shown vastly different trends in food insecurity over the past decade, including between regions with similar geophysical and climatic characteristics and/or governmental programmes (e.g., agricultural support). These observations suggest two important points: firstly, that not merely environmental conditions but rather socio-environmental interactions play a crucial role in the successful management of human-environmental systems, and, secondly, that differences in the geophysical and climatic environments between the diverse regions significantly impact the success or failure of policies. This research uses participatory systems dynamic modelling (SDM) to build a DSS that allows local decision-makers to (1) determine the impact of current and potential policies on agroecosystem management and food security, and (2) design sustainable and resilient policies for the future. The use of participatory SDM offers several benefits, including the active involvement of the end recipients in the development of the model, greatly increasing its acceptability; the integration of physical (e.g., precipitation, crop yield) and social components in one model; adequacy for modelling long-term trends in response to particular policy decisions; and the inclusion of local stakeholder knowledge on system structure and trends through the participatory process. Preliminary results suggest that there is a set of common variables explaining the generally high levels of food insecurity in Guatemala (e.g., agricultural productivity), while others (e.g., land dynamics and access to water resources) are restricted to certain regions and have a relatively important weight in determining the success or failure of policies in these regions.

Satellite Microwave Remote Sensing for Environmental Modeling of Mosquito Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Kimball, John S.; VanRoekel-Patton, Denise L.; Hildreth, Michael B.; Wimberly, Michael C.

2012-01-01

Environmental variability has important influences on mosquito life cycles and understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of mosquito populations is critical for mosquito control and vector-borne disease prevention. Meteorological data used for model-based predictions of mosquito abundance and life cycle dynamics are typically acquired from ground-based weather stations; however, data availability and completeness are often limited by sparse networks and resource availability. In contrast, environmental measurements from satellite remote sensing are more spatially continuous and can be retrieved automatically. This study compared environmental measurements from the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E) and in situ weather station data to examine their ability to predict the abundance of two important mosquito species (Aedes vexans and Culex tarsalis) in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA from 2005 to 2010. The AMSR-E land parameters included daily surface water inundation fraction, surface air temperature, soil moisture, and microwave vegetation opacity. The AMSR-E derived models had better fits and higher forecasting accuracy than models based on weather station data despite the relatively coarse (25-km) spatial resolution of the satellite data. In the AMSR-E models, air temperature and surface water fraction were the best predictors of Aedes vexans, whereas air temperature and vegetation opacity were the best predictors of Cx. tarsalis abundance. The models were used to extrapolate spatial, seasonal, and interannual patterns of climatic suitability for mosquitoes across eastern South Dakota. Our findings demonstrate that environmental metrics derived from satellite passive microwave radiometry are suitable for predicting mosquito population dynamics and can potentially improve the effectiveness of mosquito-borne disease early warning systems. PMID:23049143

Life-Cycle Analysis of Alternative Aviation Fuels in GREET

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-06-01

The Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model was expanded to include aviation fuel production pathways and aircraft operations, allowing researchers to examine the environmental sustainability of various a...

Computational and Organotypic Modeling of Microcephaly (Teratology Society)

EPA Science Inventory

Microcephaly is associated with reduced cortical surface area and ventricular dilations. Many genetic and environmental factors precipitate this malformation, including prenatal alcohol exposure and maternal Zika infection. This complexity motivates the engineering of computation...

Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible?

PubMed Central

Sutton, Paul C.; Werner, Adrian D.; Costanza, Robert; Mohr, Steve H.; Simmons, Craig T.

2016-01-01

The argument that human society can decouple economic growth—defined as growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—from growth in environmental impacts is appealing. If such decoupling is possible, it means that GDP growth is a sustainable societal goal. Here we show that the decoupling concept can be interpreted using an easily understood model of economic growth and environmental impact. The simple model is compared to historical data and modelled projections to demonstrate that growth in GDP ultimately cannot be decoupled from growth in material and energy use. It is therefore misleading to develop growth-oriented policy around the expectation that decoupling is possible. We also note that GDP is increasingly seen as a poor proxy for societal wellbeing. GDP growth is therefore a questionable societal goal. Society can sustainably improve wellbeing, including the wellbeing of its natural assets, but only by discarding GDP growth as the goal in favor of more comprehensive measures of societal wellbeing. PMID:27741300

Environmental research program. 1995 Annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, N.J.

1996-06-01

The objective of the Environmental Research Program is to enhance the understanding of, and mitigate the effects of pollutants on health, ecological systems, global and regional climate, and air quality. The program is multidisciplinary and includes fundamental research and development in efficient and environmentally benign combustion, pollutant abatement and destruction, and novel methods of detection and analysis of criteria and noncriteria pollutants. This diverse group conducts investigations in combustion, atmospheric and marine processes, flue-gas chemistry, and ecological systems. Combustion chemistry research emphasizes modeling at microscopic and macroscopic scales. At the microscopic scale, functional sensitivity analysis is used to explore themore » nature of the potential-to-dynamics relationships for reacting systems. Rate coefficients are estimated using quantum dynamics and path integral approaches. At the macroscopic level, combustion processes are modelled using chemical mechanisms at the appropriate level of detail dictated by the requirements of predicting particular aspects of combustion behavior. Parallel computing has facilitated the efforts to use detailed chemistry in models of turbulent reacting flow to predict minor species concentrations.« less

Establishment of the Northeast Coastal Watershed Geospatial Data Network (NECWGDN)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hannigan, Robyn

The goals of NECWGDN were to establish integrated geospatial databases that interfaced with existing open-source (water.html) environmental data server technologies (e.g., HydroDesktop) and included ecological and human data to enable evaluation, prediction, and adaptation in coastal environments to climate- and human-induced threats to the coastal marine resources within the Gulf of Maine. We have completed the development and testing of a "test bed" architecture that is compatible with HydroDesktop and have identified key metadata structures that will enable seamless integration and delivery of environmental, ecological, and human data as well as models to predict threats to end-users. Uniquely this databasemore » integrates point as well as model data and so offers capacities to end-users that are unique among databases. Future efforts will focus on the development of integrated environmental-human dimension models that can serve, in near real time, visualizations of threats to coastal resources and habitats.« less

Aging in Place vs. Relocation for Older Adults with a Neurocognitive Disorder: Applications of Wiseman’s Behavioral Model

PubMed Central

Kaplan, Daniel; Andersen, Troy; Lehning, Amanda; Perry, Tam Elisabeth

2015-01-01

Some older adults are more vulnerable to housing concerns due to physical and cognitive challenges, including those with a neurocognitive disorder who need extensive support. Environmental gerontology frameworks, including Wiseman’s (1980) Behavioral Model of Elderly Migration, have informed scholarship on aging in place and relocation. It remains unclear, however, the extent to which this conceptual work informs services and supports for older adults, and the Wiseman model has not been applied to people with a neurocognitive disorder. Understanding Wiseman’s model, including considerations for working with families confronting a neurocognitive disorder, can help practitioners ensure that older clients live in settings that best meet their wants and needs. PMID:26016530

The Study of Microbial Environmental Processes Related to the Natural Attenuation of Uranium at the Rifle Site using Systems-level Biology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Methe, Barbara; Lipton, Mary; Mahadevan, Krishna

Microbes exist in communities in the environment where they are fundamental drivers of global carbon, nutrient and metal cycles. In subsurface environments, they possess significant metabolic potential to affect these global cycles including the transformation of radionuclides. This study examined the influence of microbial communities in sediment zones undergoing biogeochemical cycling of carbon, nutrients and metals including natural attenuation of uranium. This study examined the relationship of both the microbiota (taxonomy) and their metabolic capacity (function) in driving carbon, nutrient and metal cycles including uranium reduction at the Department of Energy (DOE) Rifle Integrated Field Research Challenge (RIFRC). Objectives ofmore » this project were: 1) to apply systems-level biology through application of ‘metaomics’ approaches (collective analyses of whole microbial community DNA, RNA and protein) to the study of microbial environmental processes and their relationship to C, N and metals including the influence of microbial communities on uranium contaminant mobility in subsurface settings undergoing natural attenuation, 2) improve methodologies for data generation using metaomics (collectively metagenomics, metatranscriptomics and proteomics) technologies and analysis and interpretation of that data and 3) use the data generated from these studies towards microbial community-scale metabolic modeling. The strategy for examining these subsurface microbial communities was to generate sequence reads from microbial community DNA (metagenomics or whole genome shotgun sequencing (WGS)) and RNA (metatranscriptomcs or RNAseq) and protein information using proteomics. Results were analyzed independently and through computational modeling. Overall, the community model generated information on the microbial community structure that was observed using metaomic approaches at RIFRC sites and thus provides an important framework for continued community modeling development. The model as created is capable of predicting the response of the community structure in changing environments such as anoxic/oxic conditions or limitations by carbon or nutrients. The ability to more accurately model these responses is critical to understanding carbon and energy flows in an ecosystem is critical towards improving our ability to make predictions that can be used to design more efficient remediation and management strategies, and better understand the implications of environmental perturbations on these ecosystems.« less

Genetic Architecture of Micro-Environmental Plasticity in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Morgante, Fabio; Sørensen, Peter; Sorensen, Daniel A.; Maltecca, Christian; Mackay, Trudy F. C.

2015-01-01

Individuals of the same genotype do not have the same phenotype for quantitative traits when reared under common macro-environmental conditions, a phenomenon called micro-environmental plasticity. Genetic variation in micro-environmental plasticity is assumed in models of the evolution of phenotypic variance, and is important in applied breeding and personalized medicine. Here, we quantified genetic variation for micro-environmental plasticity for three quantitative traits in the inbred, sequenced lines of the Drosophila melanogaster Genetic Reference Panel. We found substantial genetic variation for micro-environmental plasticity for all traits, with broad sense heritabilities of the same magnitude or greater than those of trait means. Micro-environmental plasticity is not correlated with residual segregating variation, is trait-specific, and has genetic correlations with trait means ranging from zero to near unity. We identified several candidate genes associated with micro-environmental plasticity of startle response, including Drosophila Hsp90, setting the stage for future genetic dissection of this phenomenon. PMID:25943032

Uncertainty in Model Predictions of Vibrio Vulnificus Response to Climate Variability and Change: A Chesapeake Bay Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urquhart, Erin A.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Guikema, Seth D.; Del Castillo, Carlos E.

2014-01-01

The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4 C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.

Semiparametric Modeling of Daily Ammonia Levels in Naturally Ventilated Caged-Egg Facilities

PubMed Central

Gutiérrez-Zapata, Diana María; Galeano-Vasco, Luis Fernando; Cerón-Muñoz, Mario Fernando

2016-01-01

Ammonia concentration (AMC) in poultry facilities varies depending on different environmental conditions and management; however, this is a relatively unexplored subject in Colombia (South America). The objective of this study was to model daily AMC variations in a naturally ventilated caged-egg facility using generalized additive models. Four sensor nodes were used to record AMC, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed on a daily basis, with 10 minute intervals for 12 weeks. The following variables were included in the model: Heat index, Wind, Hour, Location, Height of the sensor to the ground level, and Period of manure accumulation. All effects included in the model were highly significant (p<0.001). The AMC was higher during the night and early morning when the wind was not blowing (0.0 m/s) and the heat index was extreme. The average and maximum AMC were 5.94±3.83 and 31.70 ppm, respectively. Temperatures above 25°C and humidity greater than 80% increased AMC levels. In naturally ventilated caged-egg facilities the daily variations observed in AMC primarily depend on cyclic variations of the environmental conditions and are also affected by litter handling (i.e., removal of the bedding material). PMID:26812150

Using Satellite Data for Environmental Impact Analysis in Economic Growth: the Case of Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tungalag, A.; Tsolmon, R.; Ochirkhuyag, L.; Oyunjargal, J.

2016-06-01

The Mongolian economy is based on the primary and secondary economic sectors of agriculture and industry. In addition, minerals and mining become a key sector of its economy. The main mining resources are gold, copper, coal, fluorspar and steel. However, the environment and green economy is one of the big problems among most of the countries and especially for countries like Mongolia where the mining is major part of economy; it is a number one problem. The research of the work tested how environmental elements effect to current Mongolian economic growth, which is growing economy because of mining sector. The study of economic growth but the starting point for any study of economic growth is the neoclassical growth model emphasizing the role of capital accumulation. The growth is analysed either in terms of models with exogenous saving rates (the Solow-Swan model), or models where consumption and hence savings are determined by optimizing individuals. These are the so-called optimal growth or Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans. The study extends the Solow model and the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model, including environmental elements which are satellite data determine to degraded land and vegetation value from 1995 to 2013. In contrast, we can see the degraded land area increases from 1995 (4856 m2) to 2013 (10478 m2) and vegetation value decrease at same time. A description of the methodology of the study conducted follows together with the data collected and econometric estimations and calibration with environmental elements.

Gene-environment studies: any advantage over environmental studies?

PubMed

Bermejo, Justo Lorenzo; Hemminki, Kari

2007-07-01

Gene-environment studies have been motivated by the likely existence of prevalent low-risk genes that interact with common environmental exposures. The present study assessed the statistical advantage of the simultaneous consideration of genes and environment to investigate the effect of environmental risk factors on disease. In particular, we contemplated the possibility that several genes modulate the environmental effect. Environmental exposures, genotypes and phenotypes were simulated according to a wide range of parameter settings. Different models of gene-gene-environment interaction were considered. For each parameter combination, we estimated the probability of detecting the main environmental effect, the power to identify the gene-environment interaction and the frequency of environmentally affected individuals at which environmental and gene-environment studies show the same statistical power. The proportion of cases in the population attributable to the modeled risk factors was also calculated. Our data indicate that environmental exposures with weak effects may account for a significant proportion of the population prevalence of the disease. A general result was that, if the environmental effect was restricted to rare genotypes, the power to detect the gene-environment interaction was higher than the power to identify the main environmental effect. In other words, when few individuals contribute to the overall environmental effect, individual contributions are large and result in easily identifiable gene-environment interactions. Moreover, when multiple genes interacted with the environment, the statistical benefit of gene-environment studies was limited to those studies that included major contributors to the gene-environment interaction. The advantage of gene-environment over plain environmental studies also depends on the inheritance mode of the involved genes, on the study design and, to some extend, on the disease prevalence.

Orbital debris and near-Earth environmental management: A chronology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Portree, David S. F.; Loftus, Joseph P., Jr.

1993-01-01

This chronology covers the 32-year history of orbital debris and near-Earth environmental concerns. It tracks near-Earth environmental hazard creation, research, observation, experimentation, management, mitigation, protection, and policy-making, with emphasis on the orbital debris problem. Included are the Project West Ford experiments; Soviet ASAT tests and U.S. Delta upper stage explosions; the Ariane V16 explosion, U.N. treaties pertinent to near-Earth environmental problems, the PARCS tests; space nuclear power issues, the SPS/orbital debris link; Space Shuttle and space station orbital debris issues; the Solwind ASAT test; milestones in theory and modeling the Cosmos 954, Salyut 7, and Skylab reentries; the orbital debris/meteoroid research link; detection system development; orbital debris shielding development; popular culture and orbital debris; Solar Max results; LDEF results; orbital debris issues peculiar to geosynchronous orbit, including reboost policies and the stable plane; seminal papers, reports, and studies; the increasing effects of space activities on astronomy; and growing international awareness of the near-Earth environment.

Aggression at Age 5 as a Function of Prenatal Exposure to Cocaine, Gender, and Environmental Risk

PubMed Central

Bendersky, Margaret; Bennett, David; Lewis, Michael

2006-01-01

Objective To examine childhood aggression at age 5 in a multiple risk model that includes cocaine exposure, environmental risk, and gender as predictors. Methods Aggression was assessed in 206 children by using multiple methods including teacher report, parent report, child’s response to hypothetical provocations, and child’s observed behavior. Also examined was a composite score that reflected high aggression across contexts. Results Multiple regression analyses indicated that a significant amount of variance in each of the aggression measures and the composite was explained by the predictors. The variables that were independently related differed depending on the outcome. Cocaine exposure, gender, and environmental risk were all related to the composite aggression score. Conclusions Cocaine exposure, being male, and a high-risk environment were all predictive of aggressive behavior at 5 years. It is this group of exposed boys at high environmental risk that is most likely to show continued aggression over time. PMID:15827351

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shao, Huaiyong, E-mail: huaiyongshao@163.com; Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing 48823, MI; Sun, Xiaofei

The Chinese government has conducted the Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project (RGLGP) across large portions of grasslands from western China since 2003. In order to explore and understand the impact in the grassland's eco-environment during the RGLGP, we utilized Projection Pursuit Model (PPM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) to develop a spatial assessment model to examine the ecological vulnerability of the grassland. Our results include five indications: (1) it is practical to apply the spatial PPM on ecological vulnerability assessment for the grassland. This methodology avoids creating an artificial hypothesis, thereby providing objective results that successfully execute a multi-indexmore » assessment process and analysis under non-linear systems in eco-environments; (2) the spatial PPM is not only capable of evaluating regional eco-environmental vulnerability in a quantitative way, but also can quantitatively demonstrate the degree of effect in each evaluation index for regional eco-environmental vulnerability; (3) the eco-environment of the Xianshui River Basin falls into the medium range level. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use cover and change (LUCC) crucially influence the Xianshui River Basin's eco-environmental vulnerability. Generally, in the Xianshui River Basin, regional eco-environmental conditions improved during 2000 and 2010. The RGLGP positively affected NDVI and LUCC structure, thereby promoting the enhancement of the regional eco-environment; (4) the Xianshui River Basin divides its ecological vulnerability across different levels; therefore our study investigates three ecological regions and proposes specific suggestions for each in order to assist in eco-environmental protection and rehabilitation; and lastly that (5) the spatial PPM established by this study has the potential to be applied on all types of grassland eco-environmental vulnerability assessments under the RGLGP and under the similar conditions in the Returning Agriculture Land to Forest Project (RALFP). However, when establishing an eco-environmental vulnerability assessment model, it is necessary to choose suitable evaluation indexes in accordance with regional eco-environmental characteristics. - Highlights: • We present a method for regional eco-environmental vulnerability assessment. • The method combines Projection Pursuit Model with Geographic Information System. • The Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project is crucial to environment recovery. • The method is more objective to assess regional eco-environmental vulnerability.« less

Predicting invertebrate assemblage composition from harvesting pressure and environmental characteristics on tropical reef flats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez, H.; Dumas, P.; Ponton, D.; Ferraris, J.

2012-03-01

Invertebrates represent an essential component of coral reef ecosystems; they are ecologically important and a major resource, but their assemblages remain largely unknown, particularly on Pacific islands. Understanding their distribution and building predictive models of community composition as a function of environmental variables therefore constitutes a key issue for resource management. The goal of this study was to define and classify the main environmental factors influencing tropical invertebrate distributions in New Caledonian reef flats and to test the resulting predictive model. Invertebrate assemblages were sampled by visual counting during 2 years and 2 seasons, then coupled to different environmental conditions (habitat composition, hydrodynamics and sediment characteristics) and harvesting status (MPA vs. non-MPA and islets vs. coastal flats). Environmental conditions were described by a principal component analysis (PCA), and contributing variables were selected. Permutational analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) was used to test the effects of different factors (status, flat, year and season) on the invertebrate assemblage composition. Multivariate regression trees (MRT) were then used to hierarchically classify the effects of environmental and harvesting variables. MRT model explained at least 60% of the variation in structure of invertebrate communities. Results highlighted the influence of status (MPA vs. non-MPA) and location (islet vs. coastal flat), followed by habitat composition, organic matter content, hydrodynamics and sampling year. Predicted assemblages defined by indicator families were very different for each environment-exploitation scenario and correctly matched a calibration data matrix. Predictions from MRT including both environmental variables and harvesting pressure can be useful for management of invertebrates in coral reef environments.

Using environmental tracer data to identify deep-aquifer, long-term flow patterns and recharge distributions in the Surat Basin, Queensland, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siade, A. J.; Suckow, A. O.; Morris, R.; Raiber, M.; Prommer, H.

2017-12-01

The calibration of regional groundwater flow models, including those investigating coal-seam gas (CSG) impacts in the Surat Basin, Australia, are not typically constrained using environmental tracers, although the use of such data can potentially provide significant reductions in predictive uncertainties. These additional sources of information can also improve the conceptualisation of flow systems and the quantification of groundwater fluxes. In this study, new multi-tracer data (14C, 39Ar, 81Kr, and 36Cl) were collected for the eastern recharge areas of the basin and within the deeper Hutton and Precipice Sandstone formations to complement existing environmental tracer data. These data were used to better understand the recharge mechanisms, recharge rates and the hydraulic properties associated with deep aquifer systems in the Surat Basin. Together with newly acquired pressure data documenting the response to the large-scale reinjection of highly treated CSG co-produced water, the environmental tracer data helped to improve the conceptualisation of the aquifer system, forming the basis for a more robust quantification of the long-term impacts of CSG-related activities. An existing regional scale MODFLOW-USG groundwater flow model of the area was used as the basis for our analysis of existing and new observation data. A variety of surrogate modelling approaches were used to develop simplified models that focussed on the flow and transport behaviour of the deep aquifer systems. These surrogate models were able to represent sub-system behaviour in terms of flow, multi-environmental tracer transport and the observed large-scale hydrogeochemical patterns. The incorporation of the environmental tracer data into the modelling framework provide an improved understanding of the flow regimes of the deeper aquifer systems as well as valuable information on how to reduce uncertainties in hydraulic properties where there is little or no historical observations of hydraulic heads.

The big five personality traits: psychological entities or statistical constructs?

PubMed

Franić, Sanja; Borsboom, Denny; Dolan, Conor V; Boomsma, Dorret I

2014-11-01

The present study employed multivariate genetic item-level analyses to examine the ontology and the genetic and environmental etiology of the Big Five personality dimensions, as measured by the NEO Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) [Costa and McCrae, Revised NEO personality inventory (NEO PI-R) and NEO five-factor inventory (NEO-FFI) professional manual, 1992; Hoekstra et al., NEO personality questionnaires NEO-PI-R, NEO-FFI: manual, 1996]. Common and independent pathway model comparison was used to test whether the five personality dimensions fully mediate the genetic and environmental effects on the items, as would be expected under the realist interpretation of the Big Five. In addition, the dimensionalities of the latent genetic and environmental structures were examined. Item scores of a population-based sample of 7,900 adult twins (including 2,805 complete twin pairs; 1,528 MZ and 1,277 DZ) on the Dutch version of the NEO-FFI were analyzed. Although both the genetic and the environmental covariance components display a 5-factor structure, applications of common and independent pathway modeling showed that they do not comply with the collinearity constraints entailed in the common pathway model. Implications for the substantive interpretation of the Big Five are discussed.

Associated pathways between neighborhood environment, community resource factors and leisure-time physical activity among Mexican-American adults in San Diego, CA

PubMed Central

Martinez, Suzanna M.; Ayala, Guadalupe X.; Patrick, Kevin; Arredondo, Elva M.; Roesch, Scott; Elder, John

2014-01-01

Purpose To examine pathways between individual, social, and environmental factors associated with leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) among Mexican-American adults. Design Cross-sectional design using random digit dialing to administer a structured telephone interview. Setting Mexican-American adults living in a U.S./Mexican border community in San Diego, CA (N=672). Measures Data were collected on LTPA, demographic characteristics, acculturation, and other psychosocial and environmental factors associated with LTPA. Analysis Structural equation modeling to test an a priori model of LTPA. Results Participants were mostly female (71%) with a mean age of 39 years (SD = 13). Only 32% of participants met PA guidelines in their leisure time, with men (39%) meeting the guidelines more than women (29%). Using structural equation modeling, neighborhood factors, both social and environmental, showed indirect relationships with meeting PA guidelines through community resource factors. Significant covariates included marital status and age. Conclusion Individual, social and environmental factors were associated with LTPA in this sample of Mexican-American adults. These findings can inform intervention studies that aim to increase LTPA in this population. PMID:22548422

Southern Alaska Coastal Relief Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, E.; Eakins, B.; Wigley, R.

2009-12-01

The National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), an office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in conjunction with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado at Boulder, has developed a 24 arc-second integrated bathymetric-topographic digital elevation model of Southern Alaska. This Coastal Relief Model (CRM) was generated from diverse digital datasets that were obtained from NGDC, the United States Geological Survey, and other U.S. and international agencies. The CRM spans 170° to 230° E and 48.5° to 66.5° N, including the Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, and Alaska’s largest communities: Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Juneau. The CRM provides a framework for enabling scientists to refine tsunami propagation and ocean circulation modeling through increased resolution of geomorphologic features. It may also be useful for benthic habitat research, weather forecasting, and environmental stewardship. Shaded-relief image of the Southern Alaska Coastal Relief Model.

Sensitivity Analysis of earth and environmental models: a systematic review to guide scientific advancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagener, Thorsten; Pianosi, Francesca

2016-04-01

Sensitivity Analysis (SA) investigates how the variation in the output of a numerical model can be attributed to variations of its input factors. SA is increasingly being used in earth and environmental modelling for a variety of purposes, including uncertainty assessment, model calibration and diagnostic evaluation, dominant control analysis and robust decision-making. Here we provide some practical advice regarding best practice in SA and discuss important open questions based on a detailed recent review of the existing body of work in SA. Open questions relate to the consideration of input factor interactions, methods for factor mapping and the formal inclusion of discrete factors in SA (for example for model structure comparison). We will analyse these questions using relevant examples and discuss possible ways forward. We aim at stimulating the discussion within the community of SA developers and users regarding the setting of good practices and on defining priorities for future research.