Further Development of the PCRTM Model and RT Model Inter Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Qiguang; Liu, Xu; Wu, Wan; Kizer, Susan

2015-01-01

New results for the development of the PCRTM model will be presented. The new results were used for IASI retrieval validation inter comparison and better results were obtained compare to other fast radiative transfer models.

Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crimp, Steven; Jin, Huidong; Kokic, Philip; Bakar, Shuvo; Nicholls, Neville

2018-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change has already been shown to effect the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and seasonality of extreme climate events. Understanding these changes is an important step in determining exposure, vulnerability and focus for adaptation. In an attempt to support adaptation decision-making we have examined statistical modelling techniques to improve the representation of global climate model (GCM) derived projections of minimum temperature extremes (frosts) in Australia. We examine the spatial changes in minimum temperature extreme metrics (e.g. monthly and seasonal frost frequency etc.), for a region exhibiting the strongest station trends in Australia, and compare these changes with minimum temperature extreme metrics derived from 10 GCMs, from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) datasets, and via statistical downscaling. We compare the observed trends with those derived from the "raw" GCM minimum temperature data as well as examine whether quantile matching (QM) or spatio-temporal (spTimerQM) modelling with Quantile Matching can be used to improve the correlation between observed and simulated extreme minimum temperatures. We demonstrate, that the spTimerQM modelling approach provides correlations with observed daily minimum temperatures for the period August to November of 0.22. This represents an almost fourfold improvement over either the "raw" GCM or QM results. The spTimerQM modelling approach also improves correlations with observed monthly frost frequency statistics to 0.84 as opposed to 0.37 and 0.81 for the "raw" GCM and QM results respectively. We apply the spatio-temporal model to examine future extreme minimum temperature projections for the period 2016 to 2048. The spTimerQM modelling results suggest the persistence of current levels of frost risk out to 2030, with the evidence of continuing decadal variation.

The centrality of meta-programming in the ES-DOC eco-system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenslade, Mark

2017-04-01

The Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) project is an international effort aiming to deliver a robust earth system model inter-comparison project documentation infrastructure. Such infrastructure both simplifies & standardizes the process of documenting (in detail) projects, experiments, models, forcings & simulations. In support of CMIP6, ES-DOC has upgraded its eco-system of tools, web-services & web-sites. The upgrade consolidates the existing infrastructure (built for CMIP5) and extends it with the introduction of new capabilities. The strategic focus of the upgrade is improvements in the documentation experience and broadening the range of scientific use-cases that the archived documentation may help deliver. Whether it is highlighting dataset errors, exploring experimental protocols, comparing forcings across ensemble runs, understanding MIP objectives, reviewing citations, exploring component properties of configured models, visualising inter-model relationships, scientists involved in CMIP6 will find the ES-DOC infrastructure helpful. This presentation underlines the centrality of meta-programming within the ES-DOC eco-system. We will demonstrate how agility is greatly enhanced by taking a meta-programming approach to representing data models and controlled vocabularies. Such an approach nicely decouples representations from encodings. Meta-models will be presented along with the associated tooling chain that forward engineers artefacts as diverse as: class hierarchies, IPython notebooks, mindmaps, configuration files, OWL & SKOS documents, spreadsheets …etc.

Estimating near-road pollutant dispersion: a model inter-comparison

EPA Science Inventory

A model inter-comparison study to assess the abilities of steady-state Gaussian dispersion models to capture near-road pollutant dispersion has been carried out with four models (AERMOD, run with both the area-source and volume-source options to represent roadways, CALINE, versio...

GCSS Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, David OC.; Benedetti, Angela; Boehm, Matt; Brown, Philip R. A.; Gierens, Klaus; Girard, Eric; Giraud, Vincent; Jakob, Christian; Jensen, Eric; Khvorostyanov, Vitaly;

THE NORTH AMERICAN MERCURY MODEL INTER-COMPARISON STUDY (NAMMIS)

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes the North American Mercury Model Inter-comparison Study (NAMMIS). The NAMMIS is an effort to apply atmospheric Hg models in a tightly constrained testing environment with a focus on North America. With each model using the same input data sets for initial co...

InterGeo II: International Geographical Achievement Test. Field Trials Report and Test (Secondary Schools, Grade 8).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niemz, Gunter; Stoltman, Joseph P.

InterGeo II, a project of the Commission on Geographical Education (CGE) of the International Geographical Union (IGU), has developed a broadly based, field-trialed testing instrument for making cross-national comparisons of achievement in geography. Field trials of InterGeo II were held in 23 countries. Data were analyzed for national achievement…

Comparison of models for predicting the changes in phytoplankton community composition in the receiving water system of an inter-basin water transfer project.

PubMed

Zeng, Qinghui; Liu, Yi; Zhao, Hongtao; Sun, Mingdong; Li, Xuyong

2017-04-01

Inter-basin water transfer projects might cause complex hydro-chemical and biological variation in the receiving aquatic ecosystems. Whether machine learning models can be used to predict changes in phytoplankton community composition caused by water transfer projects have rarely been studied. In the present study, we used machine learning models to predict the total algal cell densities and changes in phytoplankton community composition in Miyun reservoir caused by the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP). The model performances of four machine learning models, including regression trees (RT), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN) were evaluated and the best model was selected for further prediction. The results showed that the predictive accuracies (Pearson's correlation coefficient) of the models were RF (0.974), ANN (0.951), SVM (0.860), and RT (0.817) in the training step and RF (0.806), ANN (0.734), SVM (0.730), and RT (0.692) in the testing step. Therefore, the RF model was the best method for estimating total algal cell densities. Furthermore, the predicted accuracies of the RF model for dominant phytoplankton phyla (Cyanophyta, Chlorophyta, and Bacillariophyta) in Miyun reservoir ranged from 0.824 to 0.869 in the testing step. The predicted proportions with water transfer of the different phytoplankton phyla ranged from -8.88% to 9.93%, and the predicted dominant phyla with water transfer in each season remained unchanged compared to the phytoplankton succession without water transfer. The results of the present study provide a useful tool for predicting the changes in phytoplankton community caused by water transfer. The method is transferrable to other locations via establishment of models with relevant data to a particular area. Our findings help better understanding the possible changes in aquatic ecosystems influenced by inter-basin water transfer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SimilarityExplorer: A visual inter-comparison tool for multifaceted climate data

Treesearch

J. Poco; A. Dasgupta; Y. Wei; W. Hargrove; C. Schwalm; R. Cook; E. Bertini; C. Silva

2014-01-01

Inter-comparison and similarity analysis to gauge consensus among multiple simulation models is a critical visualization problem for understanding climate change patterns. Climate models, specifically, Terrestrial Biosphere Models (TBM) represent time and space variable ecosystem processes, for example, simulations of photosynthesis and respiration, using algorithms...

A River Model Intercomparison Project in Preparation for SWOT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, C. H.; Andreadis, K.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Beighley, E.; Boone, A. A.; Yamazaki, D.; Paiva, R. C. D.; Fleischmann, A. S.; Collischonn, W.; Fisher, C. K.; Kim, H.; Biancamaria, S.

2017-12-01

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is currently scheduled to launch at the beginning of next decade. SWOT is expected to retrieve unprecedented measurements of water extent, elevation, and slope in the largest terrestrial water bodies. Such potential transformative information motivates the investigation of our ability to ingest the associated data into continental-scale models of terrestrial hydrology. In preparation for the expected SWOT observations, an inter-comparison of continental-scale river models is being performed. This comparison experiment focuses on four of the world's largest river basins: the Amazon, the Mississippi, the Niger, and the Saint-Lawrence. This ongoing project focuses on two main research questions: 1) How can we best prepare for the expected SWOT continental to global measurements before SWOT even flies?, and 2) What is the added value of including SWOT terrestrial measurements into global hydro models for enhancing our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle and the climate system? We present here the results of the second year of this project which now includes simulations from six numerical models of rivers over the Mississippi and sheds light on the implications of various modeling choices on simulation quality as well as on the potential impact of SWOT observations.

Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

2013-12-01

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences from AgMIP Regional Teams, and from the project on Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest, are used to discuss how the RAPs procedures can be further developed and improved, and how RAPs can help engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results.

Climate Mitigation in Latin America: Implications for Energy and Land Use: Preface to the Special Section on the findings of the CLIMACAP-LAMP Project

DOE PAGES

van der Zwaan, Bob; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.

2016-05-01

The CLIMACAP-LAMP project, completed in December 2015, was an inter-model comparison exercise that focused on energy and climate change economics issues in Latin America. The project partners – co-financed by the EC / EuropeAid (CLIMACAP part) and EPA / USAID (LAMP part) and co-coordinated by respectively the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) – report their main and detailed findings in this Special Issue of Energy Economics, exclusively dedicated to climate mitigation, low-carbon development and implications for energy and land use in Latin America. Our research endeavor included several of the mostmore » prominent regional energy modeling groups from Latin America, as well as a representative set of global integrated assessment modeling groups from a number of institutions from Europe and the US. About two dozen universities, research groups and environmental or consulting organizations took part in the CLIMACAP-LAMP cross-model comparison project, from both sides of the Atlantic. Over a handful of workshops were organized over the past four years in several countries in Latin America, attended by between 30 and 50 participants from, amongst others, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the EU, and the US.« less

Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Suchul; Im, Eun-Soon; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2018-03-01

In this study, future changes in rainfall due to global climate change are investigated over the western Maritime Continent based on dynamically downscaled climate projections using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) with 12 km horizontal resolution. A total of nine 30-year regional climate projections driven by multi-GCMs projections (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR and ACCESS1.0) under multi-scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions (Historical: 1976-2005, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2071-2100) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. Focusing on dynamically downscaled rainfall fields, the associated systematic biases originating from GCM and MRCM are removed based on observations using Parametric Quantile Mapping method in order to enhance the reliability of future projections. The MRCM simulations with bias correction capture the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall as well as the frequency distribution of daily rainfall. Based on projected rainfall changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the ensemble of MRCM simulations project a significant decrease in rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the inter-monsoon periods while the change in rainfall is not relevant during wet season. The main mechanism behind the simulated decrease in rainfall is rooted in asymmetries of the projected changes in seasonal dynamics of the meridional circulation along different latitudes. The sinking motion, which is marginally positioned in the reference simulation, is enhanced and expanded under global climate change, particularly in RCP8.5 scenario during boreal fall season. The projected enhancement of rainfall seasonality over the western Maritime Continent suggests increased risk of water stress for natural ecosystems as well as man-made water resources reservoirs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

van der Zwaan, Bob; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.

The CLIMACAP-LAMP project, completed in December 2015, was an inter-model comparison exercise that focused on energy and climate change economics issues in Latin America. The project partners – co-financed by the EC / EuropeAid (CLIMACAP part) and EPA / USAID (LAMP part) and co-coordinated by respectively the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) – report their main and detailed findings in this Special Issue of Energy Economics, exclusively dedicated to climate mitigation, low-carbon development and implications for energy and land use in Latin America. Our research endeavor included several of the mostmore » prominent regional energy modeling groups from Latin America, as well as a representative set of global integrated assessment modeling groups from a number of institutions from Europe and the US. About two dozen universities, research groups and environmental or consulting organizations took part in the CLIMACAP-LAMP cross-model comparison project, from both sides of the Atlantic. Over a handful of workshops were organized over the past four years in several countries in Latin America, attended by between 30 and 50 participants from, amongst others, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the EU, and the US.« less

Interannual to Decadal Variability of Ocean Evaporation as Viewed from Climate Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan

2015-01-01

Questions we'll address: Given the uncoupled framework of "AMIP" (Atmosphere Model Inter-comparison Project) experiments, what can they tell us regarding evaporation variability? Do Reduced Observations Reanalyses (RedObs) using Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) pressure (and wind) provide a more realistic picture of evaporation variability? What signals of interannual variability (e.g. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and decadal variability (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)) are detectable with this hierarchy of evaporation estimates?

Constraining Centennial-Scale Ecosystem-Climate Interactions with a Pre-colonial Forest Reconstruction across the Upper Midwest and Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthes, J. H.; Dietze, M.; Fox, A. M.; Goring, S. J.; McLachlan, J. S.; Moore, D. J.; Poulter, B.; Quaife, T. L.; Schaefer, K. M.; Steinkamp, J.; Williams, J. W.

2014-12-01

Interactions between ecological systems and the atmosphere are the result of dynamic processes with system memories that persist from seconds to centuries. Adequately capturing long-term biosphere-atmosphere exchange within earth system models (ESMs) requires an accurate representation of changes in plant functional types (PFTs) through time and space, particularly at timescales associated with ecological succession. However, most model parameterization and development has occurred using datasets than span less than a decade. We tested the ability of ESMs to capture the ecological dynamics observed in paleoecological and historical data spanning the last millennium. Focusing on an area from the Upper Midwest to New England, we examined differences in the magnitude and spatial pattern of PFT distributions and ecotones between historic datasets and the CMIP5 inter-comparison project's large-scale ESMs. We then conducted a 1000-year model inter-comparison using six state-of-the-art biosphere models at sites that bridged regional temperature and precipitation gradients. The distribution of ecosystem characteristics in modeled climate space reveals widely disparate relationships between modeled climate and vegetation that led to large differences in long-term biosphere-atmosphere fluxes for this region. Model simulations revealed that both the interaction between climate and vegetation and the representation of ecosystem dynamics within models were important controls on biosphere-atmosphere exchange.

Hydrological Modeling in the Bull Run Watershed in Support of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, B.; Chiao, T. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Vano, J. A.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic models with varying complexities and structures are commonly used to evaluate the impact of climate change on future hydrology. While the uncertainties in future climate projections are well documented, uncertainties in streamflow projections associated with hydrologic model structure and parameter estimation have received less attention. In this study, we implemented and calibrated three hydrologic models (the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)) for the Bull Run watershed in northern Oregon using consistent data sources and best practice calibration protocols. The project was part of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project with the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) under the umbrella of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA). Ultimately PWB would use the model evaluation to select a model to perform in-house climate change analysis for Bull Run Watershed. This presentation focuses on the experimental design of the comparison project, project findings and the collaboration between the team at the University of Washington and at PWB. After calibration, the three models showed similar capability to reproduce seasonal and inter-annual variations in streamflow, but differed in their ability to capture extreme events. Furthermore, the annual and seasonal hydrologic sensitivities to changes in climate forcings differed among models, potentially attributable to different model representations of snow and vegetation processes.

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE PAGES

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-10-27

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

[Review of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)].

PubMed

Che, Ming-Liang; Chen, Bao-Zhang; Wang, Ying; Guo, Xiang-Yun

2014-01-01

Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) is an important and efficient tool for study on the terrestrial carbon circle processes and vegetation dynamics. This paper reviewed the development history of DGVMs, introduced the basic structure of DGVMs, and the outlines of several world-widely used DGVMs, including CLM-DGVM, LPJ, IBIS and SEIB. The shortages of the description of dynamic vegetation mechanisms in the current DGVMs were proposed, including plant functional types (PFT) scheme, vegetation competition, disturbance, and phenology. Then the future research directions of DGVMs were pointed out, i. e. improving the PFT scheme, refining the vegetation dynamic mechanism, and implementing a model inter-comparison project.

A Bootstrap Algorithm for Mixture Models and Interval Data in Inter-Comparisons

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-07-01

parametric bootstrap. The present algorithm will be applied to a thermometric inter-comparison, where data cannot be assumed to be normally distributed. 2 Data...experimental methods, used in each laboratory) often imply that the statistical assumptions are not satisfied, as for example in several thermometric ...triangular). Indeed, in thermometric experiments these three probabilistic models can represent several common stochastic variabilities for

Inter-lab proteomics: data mining in collaborative projects on the basis of the HUPO brain proteome project's pilot studies.

PubMed

Hamacher, Michael; Gröttrup, Bernd; Eisenacher, Martin; Marcus, Katrin; Park, Young Mok; Meyer, Helmut E; Kwon, Kyung-Hoon; Stephan, Christian

2011-01-01

Several projects were initiated by the Human Proteome Organisation (HUPO) focusing on the proteome analysis of distinct human organs. The initiative dedicated to the brain, its development and correlated diseases is the HUPO Brain Proteome Project (HUPO BPP). An objective data submission, storage, and reprocessing strategy have been established with the help of the results gained in a pilot study phase and within subsequent studies. The bioinformatic relevance of the data is drawn from the inter-laboratory comparisons as well as from the recalculation of all data sets submitted by the different groups. In the following, results of the single groups as well as the centralised reprocessing effort are summarised, demonstrating the added-value of this concerted work.

On solar geoengineering and climate uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacMartin, Douglas; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Rasch, Philip J.

2015-09-03

Uncertainty in the climate system response has been raised as a concern regarding solar geoengineering. Here we show that model projections of regional climate change outcomes may have greater agreement under solar geoengineering than with CO2 alone. We explore the effects of geoengineering on one source of climate system uncertainty by evaluating the inter-model spread across 12 climate models participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison project (GeoMIP). The model spread in regional temperature and precipitation changes is reduced with CO2 and a solar reduction, in comparison to the case with increased CO2 alone. That is, the intermodel spread in predictionsmore » of climate change and the model spread in the response to solar geoengineering are not additive but rather partially cancel. Furthermore, differences in efficacy explain most of the differences between models in their temperature response to an increase in CO2 that is offset by a solar reduction. These conclusions are important for clarifying geoengineering risks.« less

Multi-attribute criteria applied to electric generation energy system analysis LDRD.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuswa, Glenn W.; Tsao, Jeffrey Yeenien; Drennen, Thomas E.

2005-10-01

This report began with a Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project to improve Sandia National Laboratories multidisciplinary capabilities in energy systems analysis. The aim is to understand how various electricity generating options can best serve needs in the United States. The initial product is documented in a series of white papers that span a broad range of topics, including the successes and failures of past modeling studies, sustainability, oil dependence, energy security, and nuclear power. Summaries of these projects are included here. These projects have provided a background and discussion framework for the Energy Systems Analysis LDRD team to carrymore » out an inter-comparison of many of the commonly available electric power sources in present use, comparisons of those options, and efforts needed to realize progress towards those options. A computer aid has been developed to compare various options based on cost and other attributes such as technological, social, and policy constraints. The Energy Systems Analysis team has developed a multi-criteria framework that will allow comparison of energy options with a set of metrics that can be used across all technologies. This report discusses several evaluation techniques and introduces the set of criteria developed for this LDRD.« less

Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie; Barnard, Patrick; Ruggiero, Peter; van Ormondt, Martin

2015-01-01

Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of climate change on coastal systems.

PFLOTRAN-RepoTREND Source Term Comparison Summary.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frederick, Jennifer M.

Code inter-comparison studies are useful exercises to verify and benchmark independently developed software to ensure proper function, especially when the software is used to model high-consequence systems which cannot be physically tested in a fully representative environment. This summary describes the results of the first portion of the code inter-comparison between PFLOTRAN and RepoTREND, which compares the radionuclide source term used in a typical performance assessment.

Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farley, Kevin J.; Meyer, Joe; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; DeSchamphelaere, Karl; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Janssen, Colin; Kamo, Masashi; Lofts, Steve; Mebane, Christopher A.; Naito, Wataru; Ryan, Adam C.; Santore, Robert C.; Tipping, Edward

2015-01-01

As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the U.S. Geological Survey (USA), HDR⎪HydroQual, Inc. (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME Workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided herein. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by WHAM; specific or non-specific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors and/or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single versus multiple types of binding site on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong inter-relationships among the model parameters (log KM values, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed.

Applying the World Water and Agriculture Model to Filling Scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Villa, Daniel L.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Passell, Howard D.

The World Water and Agriculture Model has been used to simulate water, hydropower, and food sector effects in Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia during the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This unique capability allows tradeoffs to be made between filling policies for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This Nile River Basin study is presented to illustrate the capacity to use the World Water and Agriculture Model to simulate regional food security issues while keeping a global perspective. The study uses runoff data from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 and informationmore » from the literature in order to establish a reasonable set of hydrological initial conditions. Gross Domestic Product and population growth are modelled exogenously based on a composite projection of United Nations and World Bank data. The effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under various percentages of water withheld are presented.« less

Do project management and network governance contribute to inter-organisational collaboration in primary care? A mixed methods study.

PubMed

Schepman, Sanneke; Valentijn, Pim; Bruijnzeels, Marc; Maaijen, Marlies; de Bakker, Dinny; Batenburg, Ronald; de Bont, Antoinette

2018-06-07

The need for organisational development in primary care has increased as it is accepted as a means of curbing rising costs and responding to demographic transitions. It is only within such inter-organisational networks that small-scale practices can offer treatment to complex patients and continuity of care. The aim of this paper is to explore, through the experience of professionals and patients, whether, and how, project management and network governance can improve the outcomes of projects which promote inter-organisational collaboration in primary care. This paper describes a study of projects aimed at improving inter-organisational collaboration in Dutch primary care. The projects' success in project management and network governance was monitored by interviewing project leaders and board members on the one hand, and improvement in the collaboration by surveying professionals and patients on the other. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were applied to assess the projects. These were analysed, finally, using multi-level models in order to account for the variation in the projects, professionals and patients. Successful network governance was associated positively with the professionals' satisfaction with the collaboration; but not with improvements in the quality of care as experienced by patients. Neither patients nor professionals perceived successful project management as associated with the outcomes of the collaboration projects. This study shows that network governance in particular makes a difference to the outcomes of inter-organisational collaboration in primary care. However, project management is not a predictor for successful inter-organisational collaboration in primary care.

Value of ITS information for congestion avoidance in inter-modal transportation systems : phase II.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

Our project has four major mile-stones for the second year: : Mile-stone #1: Develop Dynamic Inter-modal Transportation Optimization Models: For : mostly air-road network and inter-modal networks significant to OHIO : MICHIGAN regions and our col...

Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaherpour, Jamal; Gosling, Simon N.; Mount, Nick; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Gerten, Dieter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Hanasaki, Naota; Kim, Hyungjun; Leng, Guoyong; Liu, Junguo; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Oki, Taikan; Pokhrel, Yadu; Satoh, Yusuke; Schewe, Jacob; Wada, Yoshihide

2018-06-01

Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catchments, spatially distributed across eight global hydrobelts. The performance of each model and the ensemble mean is examined with respect to their ability to replicate observed mean and extreme runoff under human-influenced conditions. Application of a novel integrated evaluation metric to quantify the models’ ability to simulate timeseries of monthly runoff suggests that the models generally perform better in the wetter equatorial and northern hydrobelts than in drier southern hydrobelts. When model outputs are temporally aggregated to assess mean annual and extreme runoff, the models perform better. Nevertheless, we find a general trend in the majority of models towards the overestimation of mean annual runoff and all indicators of upper and lower extreme runoff. The models struggle to capture the timing of the seasonal cycle, particularly in northern hydrobelts, while in southern hydrobelts the models struggle to reproduce the magnitude of the seasonal cycle. It is noteworthy that over all hydrological indicators, the ensemble mean fails to perform better than any individual model—a finding that challenges the commonly held perception that model ensemble estimates deliver superior performance over individual models. The study highlights the need for continued model development and improvement. It also suggests that caution should be taken when summarising the simulations from a model ensemble based upon its mean output.

How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Peng; Gautam, Mahesh R.; Zhu, Jianting; Yu, Zhongbo

2013-02-01

SummaryMulti-scale temporal variability of precipitation has an established relationship with floods and droughts. In this paper, we present the diagnostics on the ability of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Bias Corrected and Downscaled (BCSD) World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections and 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to represent multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station data. Four regions (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cimarron) in the Southwest United States are selected as they represent four different precipitation regions classified by clustering method. We investigate how storm properties and seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal precipitation variabilities differed between GCMs/RCMs and observed records in these regions. We find that current GCMs/RCMs tend to simulate longer storm duration and lower storm intensity compared to those from observed records. Most GCMs/RCMs fail to produce the high-intensity summer storms caused by local convective heat transport associated with the summer monsoon. Both inter-annual and decadal bands are present in the GCM/RCM-simulated precipitation time series; however, these do not line up to the patterns of large-scale ocean oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results show that the studied GCMs/RCMs can capture long-term monthly mean as the examined data is bias-corrected and downscaled, but fail to simulate the multi-scale precipitation variability including flood generating extreme events, which suggests their inadequacy for studies on floods and droughts that are strongly associated with multi-scale temporal precipitation variability.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Frieler, K.; Warszawski, L.; Lange, S.; Schewe, J.; Reyer, C.; Ostberg, S.; Piontek, F.; Betts, R. A.; Burke, E.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Emanuel, K.; Elliott, J. W.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gosling, S.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, J.; Jones, C.; Krysanova, V.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mouratiadou, I.; Popp, A.; Tian, H.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Eddy, T.; Hattermann, F.; Huber, V.; Mengel, M.; Stevanovic, M.; Kirsten, T.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Denvil, S.; Halladay, K.; Suzuki, T.; Lotze, H. K.

2016-12-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

2017-04-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

InterRett, a Model for International Data Collection in a Rare Genetic Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Louise, Sandra; Fyfe, Sue; Bebbington, Ami; Bahi-Buisson, Nadia; Anderson, Alison; Pineda, Merce; Percy, Alan; Zeev, Bruria Ben; Wu, Xi Ru; Bao, Xinhua; MacLeod, Patrick; Armstrong, Judith; Leonard, Helen

2009-01-01

Rett syndrome (RTT) is a rare genetic disorder within the autistic spectrum. This study compared socio-demographic, clinical and genetic characteristics of the international database, InterRett, and the population-based Australian Rett syndrome database (ARSD). It also explored the strengths and limitations of InterRett in comparison with other…

Downscaled rainfall projections in south Florida using self-organizing maps.

PubMed

Sinha, Palash; Mann, Michael E; Fuentes, Jose D; Mejia, Alfonso; Ning, Liang; Sun, Weiyi; He, Tao; Obeysekera, Jayantha

2018-04-20

We make future projections of seasonal precipitation characteristics in southern Florida using a statistical downscaling approach based on Self Organized Maps. Our approach is applied separately to each three-month season: September-November; December-February; March-May; and June-August. We make use of 19 different simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) and generate an ensemble of 1500 independent daily precipitation surrogates for each model simulation, yielding a grand ensemble of 28,500 total realizations for each season. The center and moments (25%ile and 75%ile) of this distribution are used to characterize most likely scenarios and their associated uncertainties. This approach is applied to 30-year windows of daily mean precipitation for both the CMIP5 historical simulations (1976-2005) and the CMIP5 future (RCP 4.5) projections. For the latter case, we examine both the "near future" (2021-2050) and "far future" (2071-2100) periods for three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Omics analysis of mouse brain models of human diseases.

PubMed

Paban, Véronique; Loriod, Béatrice; Villard, Claude; Buee, Luc; Blum, David; Pietropaolo, Susanna; Cho, Yoon H; Gory-Faure, Sylvie; Mansour, Elodie; Gharbi, Ali; Alescio-Lautier, Béatrice

2017-02-05

The identification of common gene/protein profiles related to brain alterations, if they exist, may indicate the convergence of the pathogenic mechanisms driving brain disorders. Six genetically engineered mouse lines modelling neurodegenerative diseases and neuropsychiatric disorders were considered. Omics approaches, including transcriptomic and proteomic methods, were used. The gene/protein lists were used for inter-disease comparisons and further functional and network investigations. When the inter-disease comparison was performed using the gene symbol identifiers, the number of genes/proteins involved in multiple diseases decreased rapidly. Thus, no genes/proteins were shared by all 6 mouse models. Only one gene/protein (Gfap) was shared among 4 disorders, providing strong evidence that a common molecular signature does not exist among brain diseases. The inter-disease comparison of functional processes showed the involvement of a few major biological processes indicating that brain diseases of diverse aetiologies might utilize common biological pathways in the nervous system, without necessarily involving similar molecules. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maximizing mitigation benefits-making a difference with strategic inter-resource agency planning : year two technical report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-11-01

The objective of this research project is to assess current mitigation policies and practices in comparison to : resource agency objectives and to identify mitigation strategies and priorities that provide greater cost-benefit potential and implement...

Maximizing mitigation benefits-making a difference with strategic inter-resource agency planning : year one technical report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-04-01

The objective of this research project is to assess current mitigation policies and practices in comparison to : resource agency objectives, and identify mitigation strategies and priorities that provide greater cost-benefit : potential and implement...

Value of its information for congestion avoidance in inter-modal transportation systems : phase II, final report, March 2010.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

Our project has four major mile-stones for the second year: : Mile-stone #1: Develop Dynamic Inter-modal Transportation Optimization Models: For : mostly air-road network and inter-modal networks significant to OHIO : MICHIGAN regions and our collabo...

The Joint Experiment for Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM): Update on Multisite Inter-comparison Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarvis, I.; Gilliams, S. J. B.; Defourny, P.

2016-12-01

Globally there is significant convergence on agricultural monitoring research questions. The focus of interest usually revolves around crop type, crop area estimation and near real time crop condition and yield forecasting. Notwithstanding this convergence, agricultural systems differ significantly throughout the world, reflecting the diversity of ecosystems they are located in. Consequently, a global system of systems for operational monitoring must be based on multiple approaches. Research is required to compare and assess these approaches to identify which are most appropriate for any given location. To this end the Joint Experiments for Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM) was established in 2009 to as a research platform to allow the global agricultural monitoring community to work towards a set of best practices and recommendations for using earth observation data to map, monitor and report on agricultural productivity globally. The JECAM initiative brings together researchers from a large number of globally distributed, well monitored agricultural test sites that cover a range of crop types, cropping systems and climate regimes. The results of JECAM optical inter-comparison research taking place in the Stimulating Innovation for Global Monitoring of Agriculture (SIGMA) project and the Sentinel-2 for Agriculture project will be discussed. The presentation will also highlight upcoming work on a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) inter-comparison study. The outcome of these projects will result in a set of best practices that cover the range of remote sensing monitoring and reporting needs, including satellite data acquisition, pre-processing techniques, information retrieval and ground data validation. These outcomes provide the R&D foundation for GEOGLAM and will help to inform the development of the GEOGLAM system of systems for global agricultural monitoring.

Role of Internal Variability in Surface Temperature and Precipitation Change Uncertainties over India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R.

2017-12-01

There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions.

Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change

DOE PAGES

Mistry, Malcolm N.; Wing, Ian Sue; De Cian, Enrica

2017-07-10

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981–2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (US) against US Departmentmore » of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. A majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. In conclusion, this disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs' responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields.« less

Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mistry, Malcolm N.; Wing, Ian Sue; De Cian, Enrica

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981–2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (US) against US Departmentmore » of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. A majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. In conclusion, this disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs' responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields.« less

Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mistry, Malcolm N.; Wing, Ian Sue; De Cian, Enrica

2017-07-01

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981-2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (US) against US Department of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. A majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. This disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs’ responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields.

Timeslice experiments for understanding regional climate projections: applications to the tropical hydrological cycle and European winter circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadwick, Robin; Douville, Hervé; Skinner, Christopher B.

2017-11-01

A set of atmosphere-only timeslice experiments are described, designed to examine the processes that cause regional climate change and inter-model uncertainty in coupled climate model responses to CO_2 forcing. The timeslice experiments are able to reproduce the pattern of regional climate change in the coupled models, and are applied here to two cases where inter-model uncertainty in future projections is large: the tropical hydrological cycle, and European winter circulation. In tropical forest regions, the plant physiological effect is the largest cause of hydrological cycle change in the two models that represent this process. This suggests that the CMIP5 ensemble mean may be underestimating the magnitude of water cycle change in these regions, due to the inclusion of models without the plant effect. SST pattern change is the dominant cause of precipitation and circulation change over the tropical oceans, and also appears to contribute to inter-model uncertainty in precipitation change over tropical land regions. Over Europe and the North Atlantic, uniform SST increases drive a poleward shift of the storm-track. However this does not consistently translate into an overall polewards storm-track shift, due to large circulation responses to SST pattern change, which varies across the models. Coupled model SST biases influence regional rainfall projections in regions such as the Maritime Continent, and so projections in these regions should be treated with caution.

BRDF Characterization and Calibration Inter-Comparison between Terra MODIS, Aqua MODIS, and S-NPP VIIRS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Tiejun; Xiong, Xiaoxiong (Jack); Angal, Amit; Wu, Aisheng

2016-01-01

The inter-comparison of reflective solar bands (RSB) between Terra MODIS, Aqua MODIS, and SNPP VIIRS is very important for assessment of each instrument's calibration and to identify calibration improvements. One of the limitations of using their ground observations for the assessment is a lack of the simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNOs) over selected pseudo-invariant targets. In addition, their measurements over a selected Earth view target have significant difference in solar and view angles, and these differences magnify the effects of Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF). In this work, an inter-comparison technique using a semi-empirical BRDF model is developed for reflectance correction. BRDF characterization requires a broad coverage of solar and view angles in the measurements over selected pseudo-invariant targets. Reflectance measurements over Libya 1, 2, and 4 desert sites from both the Aqua and Terra MODIS are regressed to a BRDF model with an adjustable coefficient accounting for the calibration difference between the two instruments. The BRDF coefficients for three desert sites for MODIS bands 1 to 9 are derived and the wavelength dependencies are presented. The analysis and inter-comparison are for MODIS bands 1 to 9 and VIIRS moderate resolution radiometric bands (M bands) M1, M2, M4, M5, M7, M8, M10 and imaging bands (I bands) I1-I3. Results show that the ratios from different sites are in good agreement. The ratios between Terra and Aqua MODIS from year 2003 to 2014 are presented. The inter-comparison between MODIS and VIIRS are analyzed for year 2014.

Collaborative Research: Process-resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, Ming; Deng, Yi

2015-02-06

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The future projection of the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models. A comprehensive understanding of the factors responsible for the inter-model discrepancies in projecting future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, in terms of multiple feedback processes involved, has yet to be achieved. The proposed research aims to identify sources of such uncertainty and establish a set of process-resolving quantitative evaluations of the existing predictions ofmore » the future ENSO and AM variability. The proposed process-resolving evaluations are based on a feedback analysis method formulated in Lu and Cai (2009), which is capable of partitioning 3D temperature anomalies/perturbations into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. Taking advantage of the high-resolution, multi-model ensemble products from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) soon to be available at the Lawrence Livermore National Lab, we will conduct a process-resolving decomposition of the global three-dimensional (3D) temperature (including SST) response to the ENSO and AM variability in the preindustrial, historical and future climate simulated by these models. Specific research tasks include 1) identifying the model-observation discrepancies in the global temperature response to ENSO and AM variability and attributing such discrepancies to specific feedback processes, 2) delineating the influence of anthropogenic radiative forcing on the key feedback processes operating on ENSO and AM variability and quantifying their relative contributions to the changes in the temperature anomalies associated with different phases of ENSO and AMs, and 3) investigating the linkages between model feedback processes that lead to inter-model differences in time-mean temperature projection and model feedback processes that cause inter-model differences in the simulated ENSO and AM temperature response. Through a thorough model-observation and inter-model comparison of the multiple energetic processes associated with ENSO and AM variability, the proposed research serves to identify key uncertainties in model representation of ENSO and AM variability, and investigate how the model uncertainty in predicting time-mean response is related to the uncertainty in predicting response of the low-frequency modes. The proposal is thus a direct response to the first topical area of the solicitation: Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability. It ultimately supports the accomplishment of the BER climate science activity Long Term Measure (LTM): "Deliver improved scientific data and models about the potential response of the Earth's climate and terrestrial biosphere to increased greenhouse gas levels for policy makers to determine safe levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."« less

GCSS Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Ruei-Fong; Starr, David OC.; DeMott, Paul J.; Cotton, Richard; Jensen, Eric; Sassen, Kenneth; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project, a project of GCSS Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2), involves the systematic comparison of current models of ice crystal nucleation and growth for specified, typical, cirrus cloud environments. The goal of this project is to document and understand the factors resulting in significant inter-model differences. The intent is to foment research leading to model improvement and validation. In Phase 1 of the project reported here, simulated cirrus cloud microphysical properties are compared for situations of "warm" (-40 C) and "cold" (-60 C) cirrus subject to updrafts of 4, 20 and 100 cm/s, respectively. Five models participated. These models employ explicit microphysical schemes wherein the size distribution of each class of particles (aerosols and ice crystals) is resolved into bins. Simulations are made including both homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanisms. A single initial aerosol population of sulfuric acid particles is prescribed for all simulations. To isolate the treatment of the homogeneous freezing (of haze drops) nucleation process, the heterogeneous nucleation mechanism is disabled for a second parallel set of simulations. Qualitative agreement is found for the homogeneous-nucleation-only simulations, e.g., the number density of nucleated ice crystals increases with the strength of the prescribed updraft. However, non-negligible quantitative differences are found. Detailed analysis reveals that the homogeneous nucleation formulation, aerosol size, ice crystal growth rate (particularly the deposition coefficient), and water vapor uptake rate are critical components that lead to differences in predicted microphysics. Systematic bias exists between results based on a modified classical theory approach and models using an effective freezing temperature approach to the treatment of nucleation. Each approach is constrained by critical freezing data from laboratory studies, but each includes assumptions that can only be justified by further laboratory data. Consequently, it is not yet clear if the two approaches can be made consistent. Large haze particles may deviate considerably from equilibrium size in moderate to strong updrafts (20-100 cm/s) at -60 C when the commonly invoked equilibrium assumption is lifted. The resulting difference in particle-size-dependent solution concentration of haze particles may significantly affect the ice nucleation rate during the initial nucleation interval. The uptake rate for water vapor excess by ice crystals is another key component regulating the total number of nucleated ice crystals. This rate, the product of ice number concentration and ice crystal diffusional growth rate, which is sensitive to the deposition coefficient when ice particles are small, partially controls the peak nucleation rate achieved in an air parcel and the duration of the active nucleation time period. The effects of heterogeneous nucleation are most pronounced in weak updraft situations. Vapor competition by the nucleated (heterogeneous) ice crystals limits the achieved ice supersaturation and thus suppresses the contribution of homogeneous nucleation. Correspondingly, ice crystal number density is markedly reduced. Definitive laboratory and atmospheric benchmark data are needed for the heterogeneous nucleation process. Inter-model differences are correspondingly greater than in the case of the homogeneous nucleation process acting alone.

Projected Heat Wave Characteristics over the Korean Peninsula During the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Jongsoo; Olson, Roman; An, Soon-Il

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures globally, and consequently more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves are likely to occur. Ambiguity in defining heat waves appropriately makes it difficult to compare changes in heat wave events over time. This study provides a quantitative definition of a heat wave and makes probabilistic heat wave projections for the Korean Peninsula under two global warming scenarios. Changes to heat waves under global warming are investigated using the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 30 coupled models participating in phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project. Probabilistic climate projections from multi-model ensembles have been constructed using both simple and weighted averaging. Results from both methods are similar and show that heat waves will be more intense, frequent, and longer lasting. These trends are more apparent under the RCP8.5 scenario as compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, typical heat waves are projected to become stronger than any heat wave experienced in the recent measurement record. Furthermore, under this scenario, it cannot be ruled out that Korea will experience heat wave conditions spanning almost an entire summer before the end of the 21st century.

A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Cheung, William; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Büchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Huber, Veronika; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda; Lehodey, Patrick; Link, Jason S.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Silva, Tiago; Stock, Charles A.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Underwood, Philip J.; Volkholz, Jan; Watson, James R.; Walker, Nicola D.

2018-04-01

Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

South Asian monsoon precipitation in CMIP 5: a link between inter-model spread and the representations of tropical convection

DOE PAGES

Hagos, Samson; Leung, L. Ruby; Ashfaq, Moetasim; ...

2018-03-20

CMIP 5 models exhibit a mean dry bias and a large inter-model spread in simulating South Asian monsoon precipitation but the origins of the bias and spread are not well understood. Using moisture and energy budget analysis that exploits the weak temperature gradients in the tropics, we derived a non-linear relationship between the normalized precipitation and normalized precipitable water that is similar to the non-linear relationship between precipitation and precipitable water found in previous observational studies. About half of the 21 models analyzed fall in the steep gradient of the non-linear relationship where small differences in the normalized precipitable watermore » in the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) manifest in large differences in normalized precipitation in the region. Models with larger normalized precipitable water in the EIO during spring contribute disproportionately to the large inter-model spread and multi-model mean dry bias in monsoon precipitation through perturbations of the large-scale winds. Thus the intermodel spread in precipitable water over EIO leads to the dry bias in the multi-model mean South Asian monsoon precipitation. The models with high normalized precipitable water over EIO also project larger response to warming and dominate the inter-model spread in the multi-model projections of monsoon rainfall. Conversely, models on the flat side of the relationship between normalized precipitation and precipitable water are in better agreement with each other and with observations. On average these models project a smaller increase in the projected monsoon precipitation than that from multi-model mean. As a result, this study identified the normalized precipitable water over EIO, which is determined by the relationship between the profiles of convergence and moisture and therefore is an essential outcome of the treatment of convection, as a key metric for understanding model biases and differentiating model skill in simulating South Asian monsoon precipitation.« less

South Asian monsoon precipitation in CMIP 5: a link between inter-model spread and the representations of tropical convection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagos, Samson; Leung, L. Ruby; Ashfaq, Moetasim

CMIP 5 models exhibit a mean dry bias and a large inter-model spread in simulating South Asian monsoon precipitation but the origins of the bias and spread are not well understood. Using moisture and energy budget analysis that exploits the weak temperature gradients in the tropics, we derived a non-linear relationship between the normalized precipitation and normalized precipitable water that is similar to the non-linear relationship between precipitation and precipitable water found in previous observational studies. About half of the 21 models analyzed fall in the steep gradient of the non-linear relationship where small differences in the normalized precipitable watermore » in the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) manifest in large differences in normalized precipitation in the region. Models with larger normalized precipitable water in the EIO during spring contribute disproportionately to the large inter-model spread and multi-model mean dry bias in monsoon precipitation through perturbations of the large-scale winds. Thus the intermodel spread in precipitable water over EIO leads to the dry bias in the multi-model mean South Asian monsoon precipitation. The models with high normalized precipitable water over EIO also project larger response to warming and dominate the inter-model spread in the multi-model projections of monsoon rainfall. Conversely, models on the flat side of the relationship between normalized precipitation and precipitable water are in better agreement with each other and with observations. On average these models project a smaller increase in the projected monsoon precipitation than that from multi-model mean. As a result, this study identified the normalized precipitable water over EIO, which is determined by the relationship between the profiles of convergence and moisture and therefore is an essential outcome of the treatment of convection, as a key metric for understanding model biases and differentiating model skill in simulating South Asian monsoon precipitation.« less

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Derived Boundary Conditions for Paleoclimate Simulation: the Refined ICE-6G_D (VM5a) Model and the Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltier, W. R.; Vettoretti, G.; Argus, D. F.

2017-12-01

Global models of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process are designed to fit a wide range of geophysical and geomorphological observations that simultaneously constrain the internal viscoelastic structure of Earths interior and the history of grounded ice thickness variations that has occurred over the most recent ice-age cycle of the Late Quaternary interval of time. The most recent refinement of the ICE-NG (VMX) series of such global models from the University of Toronto, ICE-6G_C (VM5a), has recently been slightly modified insofar as its Antarctic component is concerned to produce a "_D" version of the structure. This has been chosen to provide the boundary conditions for the next round of model-data inter-comparisons in the context of the international Paleoclimate Modeling Inter-comparison Project (PMIP). The output of PMIP will contribute to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which is now under way. A highly significant test of the utility of this latest model has recently been performed that is focused upon the Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillation that was the primary source of climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) of the most recent glacial cycle. By introducing the surface boundary conditions for paleotopography and paleobathymetry, land-sea mask and surface albedo into the NCAR CESM1 coupled climate model configured at full one degree by one degree CMIP5 resolution, together with the appropriate trace gas and orbital insolation forcing, we show that the millennium timescale Dansgard-Oeschger oscillation naturally develops following spin- up of the model into the glacial state.

Inter-comparison of Computer Codes for TRISO-based Fuel Micro-Modeling and Performance Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brian Boer; Chang Keun Jo; Wen Wu

2010-10-01

The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), the Deep Burn Pebble Bed Reactor (DB-PBR) and the Deep Burn Prismatic Block Reactor (DB-PMR) are all based on fuels that use TRISO particles as their fundamental constituent. The TRISO particle properties include very high durability in radiation environments, hence the designs reliance on the TRISO to form the principal barrier to radioactive materials release. This durability forms the basis for the selection of this fuel type for applications such as Deep Bun (DB), which require exposures up to four times those expected for light water reactors. It follows that the study and predictionmore » of the durability of TRISO particles must be carried as part of the safety and overall performance characterization of all the designs mentioned above. Such evaluations have been carried out independently by the performers of the DB project using independently developed codes. These codes, PASTA, PISA and COPA, incorporate models for stress analysis on the various layers of the TRISO particle (and of the intervening matrix material for some of them), model for fission products release and migration then accumulation within the SiC layer of the TRISO particle, just next to the layer, models for free oxygen and CO formation and migration to the same location, models for temperature field modeling within the various layers of the TRISO particle and models for the prediction of failure rates. All these models may be either internal to the code or external. This large number of models and the possibility of different constitutive data and model formulations and the possibility of a variety of solution techniques makes it highly unlikely that the model would give identical results in the modeling of identical situations. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of an inter-comparison between the codes and to identify areas of agreement and areas that need reconciliation. The inter-comparison has been carried out by the cooperating institutions using a set of pre-defined TRISO conditions (burnup levels, temperature or power levels, etc.) and the outcome will be tabulated in the full length paper. The areas of agreement will be pointed out and the areas that require further modeling or reconciliation will be shown. In general the agreement between the codes is good within less than one order of magnitude in the prediction of TRISO failure rates.« less

Evaluation of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) Using Ground-Based Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Y.; Sengupta, M.; Habte, A.; Lopez, A.

2017-12-01

Solar resource is essential for a wide spectrum of applications including renewable energy, climate studies, and solar forecasting. Solar resource information can be obtained from ground-based measurement stations and/or from modeled data sets. While measurements provide data for the development and validation of solar resource models and other applications modeled data expands the ability to address the needs for increased accuracy and spatial and temporal resolution. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has developed and regular updates modeled solar resource through the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). The recent NSRDB dataset was developed using the physics-based Physical Solar Model (PSM) and provides gridded solar irradiance (global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance) at a 4-km by 4-km spatial and half-hourly temporal resolution covering 18 years from 1998-2015. A comprehensive validation of the performance of the NSRDB (1998-2015) was conducted to quantify the accuracy of the spatial and temporal variability of the solar radiation data. Further, the study assessed the ability of NSRDB (1998-2015) to accurately capture inter-annual variability, which is essential information for solar energy conversion projects and grid integration studies. Comparisons of the NSRDB (1998-2015) with nine selected ground-measured data were conducted under both clear- and cloudy-sky conditions. These locations provide a high quality data covering a variety of geographical locations and climates. The comparison of the NSRDB to the ground-based data demonstrated that biases were within +/- 5% for GHI and +/-10% for DNI. A comprehensive uncertainty estimation methodology was established to analyze the performance of the gridded NSRDB and includes all sources of uncertainty at various time-averaged periods, a method that is not often used in model evaluation. Further, the study analyzed the inter-annual and mean-anomaly of the 18 years of solar radiation data. This presentation will outline the validation methodology and provide detailed results of the comparison.

Development of a Risk-Based Comparison Methodology of Carbon Capture Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal

2014-06-01

Given the varying degrees of maturity among existing carbon capture (CC) technology alternatives, an understanding of the inherent technical and financial risk and uncertainty associated with these competing technologies is requisite to the success of carbon capture as a viable solution to the greenhouse gas emission challenge. The availability of tools and capabilities to conduct rigorous, risk–based technology comparisons is thus highly desirable for directing valuable resources toward the technology option(s) with a high return on investment, superior carbon capture performance, and minimum risk. To address this research need, we introduce a novel risk-based technology comparison method supported by anmore » integrated multi-domain risk model set to estimate risks related to technological maturity, technical performance, and profitability. Through a comparison between solid sorbent and liquid solvent systems, we illustrate the feasibility of estimating risk and quantifying uncertainty in a single domain (modular analytical capability) as well as across multiple risk dimensions (coupled analytical capability) for comparison. This method brings technological maturity and performance to bear on profitability projections, and carries risk and uncertainty modeling across domains via inter-model sharing of parameters, distributions, and input/output. The integration of the models facilitates multidimensional technology comparisons within a common probabilistic risk analysis framework. This approach and model set can equip potential technology adopters with the necessary computational capabilities to make risk-informed decisions about CC technology investment. The method and modeling effort can also be extended to other industries where robust tools and analytical capabilities are currently lacking for evaluating nascent technologies.« less

iMarNet: an ocean biogeochemistry model inter-comparison project within a common physical ocean modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, L.; Yool, A.; Allen, J. I.; Anderson, T. R.; Barciela, R.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Butenschön, M.; Enright, C.; Halloran, P. R.; Le Quéré, C.; de Mora, L.; Racault, M.-F.; Sinha, B.; Totterdell, I. J.; Cox, P. M.

2014-07-01

Ocean biogeochemistry (OBGC) models span a wide range of complexities from highly simplified, nutrient-restoring schemes, through nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) models that crudely represent the marine biota, through to models that represent a broader trophic structure by grouping organisms as plankton functional types (PFT) based on their biogeochemical role (Dynamic Green Ocean Models; DGOM) and ecosystem models which group organisms by ecological function and trait. OBGC models are now integral components of Earth System Models (ESMs), but they compete for computing resources with higher resolution dynamical setups and with other components such as atmospheric chemistry and terrestrial vegetation schemes. As such, the choice of OBGC in ESMs needs to balance model complexity and realism alongside relative computing cost. Here, we present an inter-comparison of six OBGC models that were candidates for implementation within the next UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). The models cover a large range of biological complexity (from 7 to 57 tracers) but all include representations of at least the nitrogen, carbon, alkalinity and oxygen cycles. Each OBGC model was coupled to the Nucleus for the European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean general circulation model (GCM), and results from physically identical hindcast simulations were compared. Model skill was evaluated for biogeochemical metrics of global-scale bulk properties using conventional statistical techniques. The computing cost of each model was also measured in standardised tests run at two resource levels. No model is shown to consistently outperform or underperform all other models across all metrics. Nonetheless, the simpler models that are easier to tune are broadly closer to observations across a number of fields, and thus offer a high-efficiency option for ESMs that prioritise high resolution climate dynamics. However, simpler models provide limited insight into more complex marine biogeochemical processes and ecosystem pathways, and a parallel approach of low resolution climate dynamics and high complexity biogeochemistry is desirable in order to provide additional insights into biogeochemistry-climate interactions.

Historical and Future Projected Hydrologic Extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.

2016-12-01

There is an increasing body of evidence from observed data that climate variability combined with regional climate change has had a significant impact on hydrologic cycles, including both seasonal patterns of runoff and altered hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods and extreme stormwater events). To better understand changing patterns of extreme high flows in Midwest and Great Lakes region, we analyzed long-term historical observations of peak streamflow at different gaging stations. We also conducted hydrologic model experiments using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) at 1/16 degree resolution in order to explore sensitivity of annual peak streamflow, both historically and under temperature and precipitation changes for several future periods. For future projections, the Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling approach applied to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison, Phase5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios was used to produce driving data for the VIC hydrologic model. Preliminary results for several test basins in the Midwest support the hypothesis that there are consistent and statistically significant changes in the mean annual flood starting before and after about 1975. Future projections using hydrologic model simulations support the hypothesis of higher peak flows due to warming and increasing precipitation projected for the 21st century. We will extend this preliminary analysis using observed data and simulations from 40 river basins in the Midwest to further test these hypotheses.

Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2010-01-01

Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.

Catchment Models and Management Tools for diffuse Contaminants (Sediment, Phosphorus and Pesticides): DIFFUSE Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mockler, Eva; Reaney, Simeon; Mellander, Per-Erik; Wade, Andrew; Collins, Adrian; Arheimer, Berit; Bruen, Michael

2017-04-01

The agricultural sector is the most common suspected source of nutrient pollution in Irish rivers. However, it is also often the most difficult source to characterise due to its predominantly diffuse nature. Particulate phosphorus in surface water and dissolved phosphorus in groundwater are of particular concern in Irish water bodies. Hence the further development of models and indices to assess diffuse sources of contaminants are required for use by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to provide support for river basin planning. Understanding connectivity in the landscape is a vital component of characterising the source-pathway-receptor relationships for water-borne contaminants, and hence is a priority in this research. The DIFFUSE Project will focus on connectivity modelling and incorporation of connectivity into sediment, nutrient and pesticide risk mapping. The Irish approach to understanding and managing natural water bodies has developed substantially in recent years assisted by outputs from multiple research projects, including modelling and analysis tools developed during the Pathways and CatchmentTools projects. These include the Pollution Impact Potential (PIP) maps, which are an example of research output that is used by the EPA to support catchment management. The PIP maps integrate an understanding of the pollution pressures and mobilisation pathways and, using the source-pathways-receptor model, provide a scientific basis for evaluation of mitigation measures. These maps indicate the potential risk posed by nitrate and phosphate from diffuse agricultural sources to surface and groundwater receptors and delineate critical source areas (CSAs) as a means of facilitating the targeting of mitigation measures. Building on this previous research, the DIFFUSE Project will develop revised and new catchment managements tools focused on connectivity, sediment, phosphorus and pesticides. The DIFFUSE project will strive to identify the state-of-the-art methods and models that are most applicable to Irish conditions and management challenges. All styles of modelling considered useful for water resources management are relevant to this project and a balance of technical sophistication, data availability and operational practicalities is the ultimate goal. Achievement of this objective will be measured by comparing the performance of the new models developed in the project with models used in other countries. The models and tools developed in the course of the project will be evaluated by comparison with Irish catchment data and with other state-of-the-art models in a model-inter-comparison workshop which will be open to other models and the wider research community.

A Methodological Inter-Comparison of Gridded Meteorological Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, A. J.; Clark, M. P.; Longman, R. J.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Arnold, J.

2017-12-01

Here we present a gridded meteorology inter-comparison using the state of Hawaíi as a testbed. This inter-comparison is motivated by two general goals: 1) the broad user community of gridded observation based meteorological fields should be aware of inter-product differences and the reasons they exist, which allows users to make informed choices on product selection to best meet their specific application(s); 2) we want to demonstrate the utility of inter-comparisons to meet the first goal, yet highlight that they are limited to mostly generic statements regarding attribution of differences that limits our understanding of these complex algorithms and obscures future research directions. Hawaíi is a useful testbed because it is a meteorologically complex region with well-known spatial features that are tied to specific physical processes (e.g. the trade wind inversion). From a practical standpoint, there are now several monthly climatological and daily precipitation and temperature datasets available that are being used for impact modeling. General conclusions that have emerged are: 1) differences in input station data significantly influence product differences; 2) prediction of precipitation occurrence is crucial across multiple metrics; 3) derived temperature statistics (e.g. diurnal temperature range) may have large spatial differences across products; and 4) attribution of differences to methodological choices is difficult and may limit the outcomes of these inter-comparisons, particularly from a development viewpoint. Thus, we want to continue to move the community towards frameworks that allow for multiple options throughout the product generation chain and allow for more systematic testing.

Inter-sectoral comparison of model uncertainty of climate change impacts in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Griensven, Ann; Vetter, Tobias; Piontek, Franzisca; Gosling, Simon N.; Kamali, Bahareh; Reinhardt, Julia; Dinkneh, Aklilu; Yang, Hong; Alemayehu, Tadesse

2016-04-01

We present the model results and their uncertainties of an inter-sectoral impact model inter-comparison initiative (ISI-MIP) for climate change impacts in Africa. The study includes results on hydrological, crop and health aspects. The impact models used ensemble inputs consisting of 20 time series of daily rainfall and temperature data obtained from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 Representative concentration pathway (RCP). In this study, we analysed model uncertainty for the Regional Hydrological Models, Global Hydrological Models, Malaria models and Crop models. For the regional hydrological models, we used 2 African test cases: the Blue Nile in Eastern Africa and the Niger in Western Africa. For both basins, the main sources of uncertainty are originating from the GCM and RCPs, while the uncertainty of the regional hydrological models is relatively low. The hydrological model uncertainty becomes more important when predicting changes on low flows compared to mean or high flows. For the other sectors, the impact models have the largest share of uncertainty compared to GCM and RCP, especially for Malaria and crop modelling. The overall conclusion of the ISI-MIP is that it is strongly advised to use ensemble modeling approach for climate change impact studies throughout the whole modelling chain.

On-orbit radiometric calibration over time and between spacecraft using the moon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kieffer, H.H.; Stone, T.C.; Barnes, R.A.; Bender, S.; Eplee, R.E.; Mendenhall, J.; Ong, L.; ,

2002-01-01

The Robotic Lunar Observatory (ROLO) project has developed a spectral irradiance model of the Moon that accounts for variations with lunar phase through the bright half of a month, lunar librations, and the location of an Earth-orbiting spacecraft. The methodology of comparing spacecraft observations of the Moon with this model has been developed to a set of standardized procedures so that comparisons can be readily made. In the cases where observations extend over several years (e.g., SeaWiFS), instrument response degradation has been determined with precision of about 0.1% per year. Because of the strong dependence of lunar irradiance on geometric angles, observations by two spacecraft cannot be directly compared unless acquired at the same time and location. Rather, the lunar irradiance based on each spacecraft instrument calibration can be compared with the lunar irradiance model. Even single observations by an instrument allow inter-comparison of its radiometric scale with other instruments participating in the lunar calibration program. Observations by SeaWiFS, ALI, Hyperion and MTI are compared here.

A new PUB-working group on SLope InterComparison Experiments (SLICE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, K.; Retter, M.; Freer, J.; Troch, P.; McDonnell, J.

2006-05-01

The International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) decade on Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) has the scientific goal to shift hydrology from calibration reliant models to new and rich understanding- based models. To support this, six PUB science themes have been developed under the PUB Science Steering group. Theme 1 covers basin inter-comparison and classification. The SLope InterComparison Experiment (SLICE) is a newly-formed working group aligned with theme 1. Its 2- year target is to promote the improved understanding of regional hydrological characteristics via hillslope inter- comparison studies and top-down analysis of data from hillslope experiments from around the world. It will further deliver the major building blocks of a catchment classification system. A first workshop of SLICE took place 26-28 September 2005 at the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, USA. 40 participants from seven countries were in attendance. The program consisted of keynote presentations on the state-of-the-art of hillslope hydrology, outlining a hillslope classification system, and through small group discussion, a focus on the following questions: a.) How can we capture flow path heterogeneity at the hillslope scale with residence time distributions? b.) Can networks help characterize hillslope subsurface systems? c.) What patterns are useful to characterize in a hillslope comparison context? d.) How does bedrock permeability condition hillslope response? e.) Can we actually observe pressure waves in the field and/or how likely are they to exist at the hillslope continuum scale? The poster presents an overview of the workshop outcomes and directions of future work.

Dynamical downscaling inter-comparison for high resolution climate reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, J.; Rocha, A.; Castanheira, J. M.; Carvalho, A. C.

2012-04-01

In the scope of the project: "High-resolution Rainfall EroSivity analysis and fORecasTing - RESORT", an evaluation of various methods of dynamic downscaling is presented. The methods evaluated range from the classic method of nesting a regional model results in a global model, in this case the ECMWF reanalysis, to more recently proposed methods, which consist in using Newtonian relaxation methods in order to nudge the results of the regional model to the reanalysis. The method with better results involves using a system of variational data assimilation to incorporate observational data with results from the regional model. The climatology of a simulation of 5 years using this method is tested against observations on mainland Portugal and the ocean in the area of the Portuguese Continental Shelf, which shows that the method developed is suitable for the reconstruction of high resolution climate over continental Portugal.

Strive toward data harmony of multi sensor aerosol data - Tribute to Dr. Gregory Leptoukh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, J. C.; Lynnes, C.; Kempler, S. J.; Shen, S.

2012-12-01

The Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has been involved with aerosol data synergy activities and projects over recent years, led by Dr. Gregory Leptoukh. His particular interests centered on issues related to comparison and harmonization of several aspects of aerosol data, such as data quality, bias adjustment, and data provenance. A thorough understanding of these issues is needed to guide multi-sensor data usage and avoid apples-to-oranges inter-comparison and data fusion. In this talk, I will highlight these activities/projects. These would include the tools developed, but also the projects that address specific user needs and innovative services, such as GIOVANNI-MAPSS, AeroStat, NEESPI, MAIRS, ATDD, MDSA, LTA-SWDB, etc. I will also discuss preliminary results from new projects and future goals that build on the ground breaking work, left by Dr. Leptoukh.

Greenland surface albedo changes in July 1981-2012 from satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Tao; Liang, Shunlin; Yu, Yunyue; Wang, Dongdong; Gao, Feng; Liu, Qiang

2013-12-01

Significant melting events over Greenland have been observed over the past few decades. This study presents an analysis of surface albedo change over Greenland using a 32-year consistent satellite albedo product from the global land surface satellite (GLASS) project together with ground measurements. Results show a general decreasing trend of surface albedo from 1981 to 2012 (-0.009 ± 0.002 decade-1, p < 0.01). However, a large decrease has occurred since 2000 (-0.028 ± 0.008 decade-1, p < 0.01) with most significant decreases at elevations between 1000 and 1500 m (-0.055 decade-1, p < 0.01) which may be associated with surface temperature increases. The surface radiative forcing from albedo changes is 2.73 W m-2 decade-1 and 3.06 W m-2 decade-1 under full-sky and clear-sky conditions, respectively, which indicates that surface albedo changes are likely to have a larger impact on the surface shortwave radiation budget than that caused by changes in the atmosphere over Greenland. A comparison made between satellite albedo products and data output from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) shows that most of the CMIP5 models do not detect the significantly decreasing trends of albedo in recent decades. This suggests that more efforts are needed to improve our understanding and simulation of climate change at high latitudes.

Multimodel ensemble projection of precipitation in eastern China under A1B emission scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Tang, Jianping; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Gao, Xuejie; Wu, Jia; Hong, Songyou; Gutowski, William J.; McGregor, John

2015-10-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, future precipitation projection in China is constructed using five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the same global climate model (GCM) of European Centre/Hamburg version 5. The simulations cover both the control climate (1978-2000) and future projection (2041-2070) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. For the control climate, the RCMs have an advantage over the driving GCM in reproducing the summer mean precipitation distribution and the annual cycle. The biases in simulating summer precipitation mainly are caused by the deficiencies in reproducing the low-level circulation, such as the western Pacific subtropical high. In addition, large inter-RCM differences exist in the summer precipitation simulations. For the future climate, consistent and inconsistent changes in precipitation between the driving GCM and the nested RCMs are observed. Similar changes in summer precipitation are projected by RCMs over western China, but model behaviors are quite different over eastern China, which is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The inter-RCM difference of rainfall changes is more pronounced in spring over eastern China. North China and the southern part of South China are very likely to experience less summer rainfall in multi-RCM mean (MRM) projection, while limited credibility in increased summer rainfall MRM projection over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The inter-RCM variability is the main contributor to the total uncertainty for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and South China during 2041-2060, while lowest for Northeast China, being less than 40%.

Airborne hygrometer calibration inter-comparison against a metrological water vapour standard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smorgon, Denis; Boese, Norbert; Ebert, Volker

2014-05-01

Water vapour is the most important atmospheric greenhouse gas, which causes a major feedback to warming and other changes in the climate system. Knowledge of the distribution of water vapour and its climate induced changes is especially important in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) where vapour plays a critical role in atmospheric radiative balance, cirrus cloud formation, and photochemistry. But, our understanding of water in the UT/LS is limited by significant uncertainties in current UT/LS water measurements. One of the most comprehensive inter-comparison campaigns for airborne hygrometers, termed AQUAVIT (AV1) [1], took place in 2007 at the AIDA chamber at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) in Germany. AV1 was a well-defined, referred, blind inter-comparison of 22 airborne field instruments from 17 international research groups. One major metrological deficit of AV1, however, was, that no traceable reference instrument participated in the inter-comparison experiments and that the calibration procedures of the participating instruments were not monitored or interrogated. Consequently a follow-up inter-comparison was organized in April 2013, which for the first time also provides a traceable link to the international humidity scale. This AQUAVIT2 (AV2) campaign (details see: http://www.imk-aaf.kit.edu/aquavit/index.php/Main_Page) was again located at KIT/AIDA and organised by an international organizing committee including KIT, PTB, FZJ and others. Generally AV2 is divided in two parallel comparisons: 1) AV2-A uses the AIDA chamber for a simultaneous comparison of all instruments (incl. sampling and in-situ instruments) over a broad range of conditions characteristic for the UT/LS; 2) AV2-B, about which this paper is reporting, is a sequential comparison of selected hygrometers and (when possible) their reference calibration infrastructures by means of a chilled mirror hygrometer traced back to the primary National humidity standard of PTB and a validated, two-pressure generator acting as a highly stable and reproducible source of water vapour. The aim of AV2-B was to perform an absolute, metrological comparison of the field instruments/calibration infrastructures to the metrological humidity scale, and to collect essential information about methods and procedures used by the atmospheric community for instrument calibration and validation, in order to investigate e.g. the necessity and possible comparability advantage by a standardized calibration procedure. The work will give an overview over the concept of the AV2-B inter-comparison, the various general measurement and calibration principles, and discuss the outcome and consequences of the comparison effort. The AQUAVIT effort is linked to the EMRP project METEOMET (ENV07) and partially supported by the EMRP and ENV07. The EMRP is jointly funded by the EMRP participating countries within EURAMET and the European Union. [1] H. Saathoff, C. Schiller, V. Ebert, D. W. Fahey, R.-S. Gao, O. Möhler, and the aquavit team, The AQUAVIT formal intercomparison of atmospheric water measurement methods, 5th General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union, 13-18 April 2008, Vienna, Austria Keywords: humidity, water vapour, inter-comparison, airborne instruments.

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 3: Advanced networks and economics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

This study projects until 2000 the evolution of long distance fiber optic networks in the U.S. Volume 1 is the executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic components and systems that are directly related to the operation of long-haul networks. Optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenarios of technology development are presented. The activities of national and regional companies implementing fiber long haul networks are also highlighted, along with an analysis of the market and regulatory forces affecting network evolution. Volume 3 presents advanced fiber optic network concept definitions. Inter-LATA traffic is quantified and forms the basis for the construction of 11-, 15-, 17-, and 23-node networks. Using the technology projections from Volume 2, a financial model identifies cost drivers and determines circuit mile costs between any two LATAs. A comparison of fiber optics with alternative transmission concludes the report.

US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 2: Fiber optic technology and long distance networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1986-10-01

The study projects until 2000 the evolution of long distance fiber optic networks in the U.S. Volume 1 is the Executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic components and systems that are directly related to the operation of long-haul networks. Optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenarios of technology development are presented. The activities of national and regional companies implementing fiber long haul networks are also highlighted, along with an analysis of the market and regulatory forces affecting network evolution. Volume 3 presents advanced fiber optic network concept definitions. Inter-LATA traffic is quantified and forms the basis for the construction of 11-, 15-, 17-, and 23-node networks. Using the technology projections from Volume 2, a financial model identifies cost drivers and determines circuit mile costs between any two LATAs. A comparison of fiber optics with alternative transmission concludes the report.

US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 3: Advanced networks and economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1986-10-01

This study projects until 2000 the evolution of long distance fiber optic networks in the U.S. Volume 1 is the executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic components and systems that are directly related to the operation of long-haul networks. Optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenarios of technology development are presented. The activities of national and regional companies implementing fiber long haul networks are also highlighted, along with an analysis of the market and regulatory forces affecting network evolution. Volume 3 presents advanced fiber optic network concept definitions. Inter-LATA traffic is quantified and forms the basis for the construction of 11-, 15-, 17-, and 23-node networks. Using the technology projections from Volume 2, a financial model identifies cost drivers and determines circuit mile costs between any two LATAs. A comparison of fiber optics with alternative transmission concludes the report.

US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 2: Fiber optic technology and long distance networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

The study projects until 2000 the evolution of long distance fiber optic networks in the U.S. Volume 1 is the Executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic components and systems that are directly related to the operation of long-haul networks. Optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenarios of technology development are presented. The activities of national and regional companies implementing fiber long haul networks are also highlighted, along with an analysis of the market and regulatory forces affecting network evolution. Volume 3 presents advanced fiber optic network concept definitions. Inter-LATA traffic is quantified and forms the basis for the construction of 11-, 15-, 17-, and 23-node networks. Using the technology projections from Volume 2, a financial model identifies cost drivers and determines circuit mile costs between any two LATAs. A comparison of fiber optics with alternative transmission concludes the report.

Inter-comparison of three-dimensional models of volcanic plumes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suzuki, Yujiro; Costa, Antonio; Cerminara, Matteo; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Herzog, Michael; Van Eaton, Alexa; Denby, Leif

2016-01-01

We performed an inter-comparison study of three-dimensional models of volcanic plumes. A set of common volcanological input parameters and meteorological conditions were provided for two kinds of eruptions, representing a weak and a strong eruption column. From the different models, we compared the maximum plume height, neutral buoyancy level (where plume density equals that of the atmosphere), and level of maximum radial spreading of the umbrella cloud. We also compared the vertical profiles of eruption column properties, integrated across cross-sections of the plume (integral variables). Although the models use different numerical procedures and treatments of subgrid turbulence and particle dynamics, the inter-comparison shows qualitatively consistent results. In the weak plume case (mass eruption rate 1.5 × 106 kg s− 1), the vertical profiles of plume properties (e.g., vertical velocity, temperature) are similar among models, especially in the buoyant plume region. Variability among the simulated maximum heights is ~ 20%, whereas neutral buoyancy level and level of maximum radial spreading vary by ~ 10%. Time-averaging of the three-dimensional (3D) flow fields indicates an effective entrainment coefficient around 0.1 in the buoyant plume region, with much lower values in the jet region, which is consistent with findings of small-scale laboratory experiments. On the other hand, the strong plume case (mass eruption rate 1.5 × 109 kg s− 1) shows greater variability in the vertical plume profiles predicted by the different models. Our analysis suggests that the unstable flow dynamics in the strong plume enhances differences in the formulation and numerical solution of the models. This is especially evident in the overshooting top of the plume, which extends a significant portion (~ 1/8) of the maximum plume height. Nonetheless, overall variability in the spreading level and neutral buoyancy level is ~ 20%, whereas that of maximum height is ~ 10%. This inter-comparison study has highlighted the different capabilities of 3D volcanic plume models, and identified key features of weak and strong plumes, including the roles of jet stability, entrainment efficiency, and particle non-equilibrium, which deserve future investigation in field, laboratory, and numerical studies.

Further evaluation of wetland emission estimates from the JULES land surface model using SCIAMACHY and GOSAT atmospheric column methane measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayman, Garry; Comyn-Platt, Edward; McNorton, Joey; Chipperfield, Martyn; Gedney, Nicola

2016-04-01

The atmospheric concentration of methane began rising again in 2007 after a period of near-zero growth [1,2], with the largest increases observed over polar northern latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere in 2007 and in the tropics since then. The observed inter-annual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations and the associated changes in growth rates have variously been attributed to changes in different methane sources and sinks [2,3]. Wetlands are generally accepted as being the largest, but least well quantified, single natural source of CH4, with global emission estimates ranging from 142-284 Tg yr-1 [3]. The modelling of wetlands and their associated emissions of CH4 has become the subject of much current interest [4]. We have previously used the HadGEM2 chemistry-climate model to evaluate the wetland emission estimates derived using the UK community land surface model (JULES, the Joint UK Land Earth Simulator) against atmospheric observations of methane, including SCIAMACHY total methane columns [5] up to 2007. We have undertaken a series of new HadGEM2 runs using new JULES emission estimates extended in time to the end of 2012, thereby allowing comparison with both SCIAMACHY and GOSAT atmospheric column methane measurements. We will describe the results of these runs and the implications for methane wetland emissions. References [1] Rigby, M., et al.: Renewed growth of atmospheric methane. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22805, 2008; [2] Nisbet, E.G., et al.: Methane on the Rise-Again, Science 343, 493, 2014; [3] Kirschke, S., et al.,: Three decades of global methane sources and sinks, Nature Geosciences, 6, 813-823, 2013; [4] Melton, J. R., et al.: Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP), Biogeosciences, 10, 753-788, 2013; [5] Hayman, G.D., et al.: Comparison of the HadGEM2 climate-chemistry model against in situ and SCIAMACHY atmospheric methane data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13257-13280, 2014.

Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses to understand differences in process-based snow models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Martyn; Essery, Richard

2017-04-01

When faced with the complex and interdisciplinary challenge of building process-based land models, different modelers make different decisions at different points in the model development process. These modeling decisions are generally based on several considerations, including fidelity (e.g., what approaches faithfully simulate observed processes), complexity (e.g., which processes should be represented explicitly), practicality (e.g., what is the computational cost of the model simulations; are there sufficient resources to implement the desired modeling concepts), and data availability (e.g., is there sufficient data to force and evaluate models). Consequently the research community, comprising modelers of diverse background, experience, and modeling philosophy, has amassed a wide range of models, which differ in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. Model comparison studies have been undertaken to explore model differences, but have not been able to meaningfully attribute inter-model differences in predictive ability to individual model components because there are often too many structural and implementation differences among the different models considered. As a consequence, model comparison studies to date have provided limited insight into the causes of differences in model behavior, and model development has often relied on the inspiration and experience of individual modelers rather than on a systematic analysis of model shortcomings. This presentation will summarize the use of "multiple-hypothesis" modeling frameworks to understand differences in process-based snow models. Multiple-hypothesis frameworks define a master modeling template, and include a a wide variety of process parameterizations and spatial configurations that are used in existing models. Such frameworks provide the capability to decompose complex models into the individual decisions that are made as part of model development, and evaluate each decision in isolation. It is hence possible to attribute differences in system-scale model predictions to individual modeling decisions, providing scope to mimic the behavior of existing models, understand why models differ, characterize model uncertainty, and identify productive pathways to model improvement. Results will be presented applying multiple hypothesis frameworks to snow model comparison projects, including PILPS, SnowMIP, and the upcoming ESM-SnowMIP project.

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Arnell, Nigel W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Raes, Frank; Rapley, Chris; Smith, Mark Stafford; Cramer, Wolfgang; Frieler, Katja; Reyer, Christopher P. O.;

RESULTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MERCURY MODEL INTER-COMPARISON STUDY (NAMMIS)

EPA Science Inventory

A North American Mercury Model Intercomparison Study (NAMMIS) has been conducted to build upon the findings from previous mercury model intercomparison in Europe. In the absence of mercury measurement networks sufficient for model evaluation, model developers continue to rely on...

Ambient PM2.5 exposure and expected premature mortality to 2100 in India under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Sourangsu; Dey, Sagnik; Smith, Kirk R

2018-01-22

Premature mortality from current ambient fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) exposure in India is large, but the trend under climate change is unclear. Here we estimate ambient PM 2.5 exposure up to 2100 by applying the relative changes in PM 2.5 from baseline period (2001-2005) derived from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models to the satellite-derived baseline PM 2.5 . We then project the mortality burden using socioeconomic and demographic projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Ambient PM 2.5 exposure is expected to peak in 2030 under the RCP4.5 and in 2040 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Premature mortality burden is expected to be 2.4-4 and 28.5-38.8% higher under RCP8.5 scenario relative to the RCP4.5 scenario in 2031-2040 and 2091-2100, respectively. Improved health conditions due to economic growth are expected to compensate for the impact of changes in population and age distribution, leading to a reduction in per capita health burden from PM 2.5 for all scenarios except the combination of RCP8.5 exposure and SSP3.

Assessing the capability of high resolution climatic model experiments to simulate Mediterranean cyclonic tracks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Kostopoulou, E.; Kouroutzoglou, I.; Keay, K.; Simmonds, I.

2010-09-01

In this study, a comparison of a reanalysis driven simulation to a GCM driven simulation of a regional climate model is performed in order to assess the model's ability to capture the climatic characteristics of cyclonic tracks in the Mediterranean in the present climate. The ultimate scope of the study will be to perform a future climate projection related to cyclonic tracks in order to better understand and assess climate change in the Mediterranean. The climatology of the cyclonic tracks includes inter-monthly variations, classification of tracks according to their origin domain, dynamic and kinematic characteristics, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the ENEA model is employed based on PROTHEUS system composed of the RegCM atmospheric regional model and the MITgcm ocean model, coupled through the OASIS3 flux coupler. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. Two experiments are employed; a) the ERA402 with lateral Boundary conditions from ERA40 for the 43-year period 1958-2000, and b) the EH5OM_20C3M where the lateral boundary conditions for the atmosphere (1951-2000) are taken from the ECHAM5-MPIOM 20c3m global simulation (run3) included in the IPCC-AR4. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. This approach is considered to be crucial, since open lows are also incorporated into the storm life-cycle, preventing possible inappropriate time series breaks, if a temporary weakening to an open-low state occurs. The model experiments verify that considerable inter-monthly variations of track density occur in the Mediterranean region, consistent with previous studies. The classification of the tracks according to their origin domain show that the vast majority originate within the examined area itself. The study of the kinematic and dynamic parameters of tracks according to their origin demonstrate that deeper cyclones follow the SW track. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: M. Hatzaki would like to thank the Greek State Scholarships Foundation for financial support through the program of postdoctoral research. The support of EU-FP6 project CIRCE Integrated Project-Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (http://www.circeproject.eu) for climate model data provision is also greatly acknowledged.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2017-11-01

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Inter-annual Tropospheric Aerosol Variability in Late Twentieth Century and its Impact on Tropical Atlantic and West African Climate by Direct and Semi-direct Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, Katherine J; Hack, James J; Truesdale, John

A new high-resolution (0.9more » $$^{\\circ}$$x1.25$$^{\\circ}$$ in the horizontal) global tropospheric aerosol dataset with monthly resolution is generated using the finite-volume configuration of Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a bulk aerosol model and forced with recent estimates of surface emissions for the latter part of twentieth century. The surface emissions dataset is constructed from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) decadal-resolution surface emissions dataset to include REanalysis of TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO) wildfire monthly emissions dataset. Experiments forced with the new tropospheric aerosol dataset and conducted using the spectral configuration of CAM4 with a T85 truncation (1.4$$^{\\circ}$$x1.4$$^{\\circ}$$) with prescribed twentieth century observed sea surface temperature, sea-ice and greenhouse gases reveal that variations in tropospheric aerosol levels can induce significant regional climate variability on the inter-annual timescales. Regression analyses over tropical Atlantic and Africa reveal that increasing dust aerosols can cool the North African landmass and shift convection southwards from West Africa into the Gulf of Guinea in the spring season in the simulations. Further, we find that increasing carbonaceous aerosols emanating from the southwestern African savannas can cool the region significantly and increase the marine stratocumulus cloud cover over the southeast tropical Atlantic ocean by aerosol-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere above the low clouds. Experiments conducted with CAM4 coupled to a slab ocean model suggest that present day aerosols can shift the ITCZ southwards over the tropical Atlantic and can reduce the ocean mixed layer temperature beneath the increased marine stratocumulus clouds in the southeastern tropical Atlantic.« less

Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the Western Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Manz, Bastian; Véliz Rosas, Claudia; Willems, Patrick; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

2016-01-01

The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research because of its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rainforests in carbon cycling. Climate change has also a direct hydrological impact, and increasing efforts have focused on understanding the hydrological dynamics at continental and subregional scales, such as the Western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river. Using extreme value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 yr. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100 yr return floods). These findings agree with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amidst a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rainforest system over greater Amazonia.

Assessing the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on Haihe River basin, eastern China: a coupled model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jun; Wang, Qiang; Zhang, Xiang; Wang, Rui; She, Dunxian

2018-04-01

The modeling of changes in surface water and groundwater in the areas of inter-basin water diversion projects is quite difficult because surface water and groundwater models are run separately most of the time and the lack of sufficient data limits the application of complex surface-water/groundwater coupling models based on physical laws, especially for developing countries. In this study, a distributed surface-water and groundwater coupling model, named the distributed time variant gain model-groundwater model (DTVGM-GWM), was used to assess the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on a watershed hydrological cycle. The DTVGM-GWM model can reflect the interaction processes of surface water and groundwater at basin scale. The model was applied to the Haihe River Basin (HRB) in eastern China. The possible influences of climate change and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) on surface water and groundwater in the HRB were analyzed under various scenarios. The results showed that the newly constructed model DTVGM-GWM can reasonably simulate the surface and river runoff, and describe the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of groundwater level, groundwater storage and phreatic recharge. The prediction results under different scenarios showed a decline in annual groundwater exploitation and also runoff in the HRB, while an increase of groundwater storage and groundwater level after the SNWDP's operation. Additionally, as the project also addresses future scenarios, a slight increase is predicted in the actual evapotranspiration, soil water content and phreatic recharge. This study provides valuable insights for developing sustainable groundwater management options for the HRB.

The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP): A Model-Data Comparison System for Evaluation of Coupled Biosphere-Atmosphere Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, Jim; Thornton, Peter E

2009-01-01

The need to capture important climate feebacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in new efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, now often referred to as Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results, suggesting that a more rigorous set of offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are warranted. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) providesmore » a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). C-LAMP provides feedback to the modeling community regarding model improvements and to the measurement community by suggesting new observational campaigns. C-LAMP Experiment 1 consists of a set of uncoupled simulations of terrestrial carbon models specifically designed to examine the ability of the models to reproduce surface carbon and energy fluxes at multiple sites and to exhibit the influence of climate variability, prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), nitrogen (N) deposition, and land cover change on projections of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 20th century. Experiment 2 consists of partially coupled simulations of the terrestrial carbon model with an active atmosphere model exchanging energy and moisture fluxes. In all experiments, atmospheric CO{sub 2} follows the prescribed historical trajectory from C{sup 4}MIP. In Experiment 2, the atmosphere model is forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and corresponding sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre; prescribed CO{sub 2} is radiatively active; and land, fossil fuel, and ocean CO{sub 2} fluxes are advected by the model. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3) in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): The CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons against Ameriflus site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO{sub 2} Enrichment (FACE) site measurements, and other datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). The C-LAMP diagnostics package was used to validate improvements to CASA and CN for use in the next generation model, CLM4. It is hoped that this effort will serve as a prototype for an international carbon-cycle model benchmarking activity for models being used for the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. More information about C-LAMP, the experimental protocol, performance metrics, output standards, and model-data comparisons from the CLM3-CASA and CLM3-CN models are available at http://www.climatemodeling.org/c-lamp.« less

Inter-rater reliability of malaria parasite counts and comparison of methods

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The introduction of artemesinin-based treatment for falciparum malaria has led to a shift away from symptom-based diagnosis. Diagnosis may be achieved by using rapid non-microscopic diagnostic tests (RDTs), of which there are many available. Light microscopy, however, has a central role in parasite identification and quantification and remains the main method of parasite-based diagnosis in clinic and hospital settings and is necessary for monitoring the accuracy of RDTs. The World Health Organization has prepared a proficiency testing panel containing a range of malaria-positive blood samples of known parasitaemia, to be used for the assessment of commercially available malaria RDTs. Different blood film and counting methods may be used for this purpose, which raises questions regarding accuracy and reproducibility. A comparison was made of the established methods for parasitaemia estimation to determine which would give the least inter-rater and inter-method variation Methods Experienced malaria microscopists counted asexual parasitaemia on different slides using three methods; the thin film method using the total erythrocyte count, the thick film method using the total white cell count and the Earle and Perez method. All the slides were stained using Giemsa pH 7.2. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) models were used to find the inter-rater reliability for the different methods. The paired t-test was used to assess any systematic bias between the two methods, and a regression analysis was used to see if there was a changing bias with parasite count level. Results The thin blood film gave parasite counts around 30% higher than those obtained by the thick film and Earle and Perez methods, but exhibited a loss of sensitivity with low parasitaemia. The thick film and Earle and Perez methods showed little or no bias in counts between the two methods, however, estimated inter-rater reliability was slightly better for the thick film method. Conclusion The thin film method gave results closer to the true parasite count but is not feasible at a parasitaemia below 500 parasites per microlitre. The thick film method was both reproducible and practical for this project. The determination of malarial parasitaemia must be applied by skilled operators using standardized techniques. PMID:19939271

A multi-segment foot model based on anatomically registered technical coordinate systems: method repeatability in pediatric feet.

PubMed

Saraswat, Prabhav; MacWilliams, Bruce A; Davis, Roy B

2012-04-01

Several multi-segment foot models to measure the motion of intrinsic joints of the foot have been reported. Use of these models in clinical decision making is limited due to lack of rigorous validation including inter-clinician, and inter-lab variability measures. A model with thoroughly quantified variability may significantly improve the confidence in the results of such foot models. This study proposes a new clinical foot model with the underlying strategy of using separate anatomic and technical marker configurations and coordinate systems. Anatomical landmark and coordinate system identification is determined during a static subject calibration. Technical markers are located at optimal sites for dynamic motion tracking. The model is comprised of the tibia and three foot segments (hindfoot, forefoot and hallux) and inter-segmental joint angles are computed in three planes. Data collection was carried out on pediatric subjects at two sites (Site 1: n=10 subjects by two clinicians and Site 2: five subjects by one clinician). A plaster mold method was used to quantify static intra-clinician and inter-clinician marker placement variability by allowing direct comparisons of marker data between sessions for each subject. Intra-clinician and inter-clinician joint angle variability were less than 4°. For dynamic walking kinematics, intra-clinician, inter-clinician and inter-laboratory variability were less than 6° for the ankle and forefoot, but slightly higher for the hallux. Inter-trial variability accounted for 2-4° of the total dynamic variability. Results indicate the proposed foot model reduces the effects of marker placement variability on computed foot kinematics during walking compared to similar measures in previous models. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial inter-comparison of Top-down emission inventories in European urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trombetti, Marco; Thunis, Philippe; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Clappier, Alain; Couvidat, Florian; Guevara, Marc; Kuenen, Jeroen; López-Aparicio, Susana

2018-01-01

This paper presents an inter-comparison of the main Top-down emission inventories currently used for air quality modelling studies at the European level. The comparison is developed for eleven European cities and compares the distribution of emissions of NOx, SO2, VOC and PPM2.5 from the road transport, residential combustion and industry sectors. The analysis shows that substantial differences in terms of total emissions, sectorial emission shares and spatial distribution exist between the datasets. The possible reasons in terms of downscaling approaches and choice of spatial proxies are analysed and recommendations are provided for each inventory in order to work towards the harmonisation of spatial downscaling and proxy calibration, in particular for policy purposes. The proposed methodology may be useful for the development of consistent and harmonised European-wide inventories with the aim of reducing the uncertainties in air quality modelling activities.

Inter-comparison of source apportionment of PM10 using PMF and CMB in three sites nearby an industrial area in central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cesari, Daniela; Donateo, Antonio; Conte, Marianna; Contini, Daniele

2016-12-01

Receptor models (RMs), based on chemical composition of particulate matter (PM), such as Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF), represent useful tools for determining the impact of PM sources to air quality. This information is useful, especially in areas influenced by anthropogenic activities, to plan mitigation strategies for environmental management. Recent inter-comparison of source apportionment (SA) results showed that one of the difficulties in the comparison of estimated source contributions is the compatibility of the sources, i.e. the chemical profiles of factor/sources used in receptor models. This suggests that SA based on integration of several RMs could give more stable and reliable solutions with respect to a single model. The aim of this work was to perform inter-comparison of PMF (using PMF3.0 and PMF5.0 codes) and CMB outputs, focusing on both source chemical profiles and estimates of source contributions. The dataset included 347 daily PM10 samples collected in three sites in central Italy located near industrial emissions. Samples were chemically analysed for the concentrations of 21 chemical species (NH4+, Ca2 +, Mg2 +, Na+, K+, Mg2 +, SO42 -, NO3-, Cl-, Si, Al, Ti, V, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Br, EC, and OC) used as input of RMs. The approach identified 9 factor/sources: marine, traffic, resuspended dust, biomass burning, secondary sulphate, secondary nitrate, crustal, coal combustion power plant and harbour-industrial. Results showed that the application of constraints in PMF5.0 improved interpretability of profiles and comparability of estimated source contributions with stoichiometric calculations. The inter-comparison of PMF and CMB gave significant differences for secondary nitrate, biomass burning, and harbour-industrial sources, due to non-compatibility of these source profiles that have local specificities. When these site-dependent specificities were taken into account, optimising the input source profiles of CMB, a significant improvement in the comparison of the estimated source contributions with PMF was obtained.

Creating Regional Futures: A Scenario-Based Inter- and Transdisciplinary Case Study as a Model for Applied Student-Centred Learning in Geography

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fromhold-Eisebith, Martina; Freyer, Bernhard; Mose, Ingo; Muhar, Andreas; Vilsmaier, Ulli

2009-01-01

Human geography students face changing qualification requirements due to a shift towards new topics, educational tasks and professional options regarding issues of spatial development. This "practical turn" raises the importance of inter- and transdisciplinary work, management and capability building skills, with case study projects and…

Relevance of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection Data for Hydrodynamics and Water Quality Modelling of the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenberg, R.; Vigouroux, G.; Chen, Y.; Bring, A.; Kalantari, Z.; Prieto, C.; Destouni, G.

2017-12-01

The Baltic Sea, located in Northern Europe, is one of the world's largest body of brackish water, enclosed and surrounded by nine different countries. The magnitude of climate change may be particularly large in northern regions, and identifying its impacts on vulnerable inland waters and their runoff and nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea is an important and complex task. Exploration of such hydro-climatic impacts is needed to understand potential future changes in physical, ecological and water quality conditions in the regional coastal and marine waters. In this study, we investigate hydro-climatic changes and impacts on the Baltic Sea by synthesizing multi-model climate projection data from the CORDEX regional downscaling initiative (EURO- and Arctic- CORDEX domains, http://www.cordex.org/). We identify key hydro-climatic variable outputs of these models and assess model performance with regard to their projected temporal and spatial change behavior and impacts on different scales and coastal-marine parts, up to the whole Baltic Sea. Model spreading, robustness and impact implications for the Baltic Sea system are investigated for and through further use in simulations of coastal-marine hydrodynamics and water quality based on these key output variables and their change projections. Climate model robustness in this context is assessed by inter-model spreading analysis and observation data comparisons, while projected change implications are assessed by forcing of linked hydrodynamic and water quality modeling of the Baltic Sea based on relevant hydro-climatic outputs for inland water runoff and waterborne nutrient loading to the Baltic sea, as well as for conditions in the sea itself. This focused synthesis and analysis of hydro-climatically relevant output data of regional climate models facilitates assessment of reliability and uncertainty in projections of driver-impact changes of key importance for Baltic Sea physical, water quality and ecological conditions and their future evolution.

The role of inter-comparisons in radiocarbon quality assurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Marian; Cook, Gordon; Naysmith, Philip

2016-04-01

Radiocarbon dating is used widely in many geochronology projects as a basis for the creation and testing of chronological constructs. Radiocarbon measurements are by their nature complex and the degree of sample pre-treatment varies considerably depending on the material. Within the UK and Europe, there are a number of well-established laboratories and increasingly, scientists are not just commissioning new dates, but also using statistical modelling of assemblages of dates, perhaps measured in different laboratories, to provide formal date estimates for their investigations. The issue of comparability of measurements (and thus bias, accuracy and precision of measurement) from the diverse laboratories is one which has been the focus of some attention both within the 14C community and the wider user communities for some time. As a result of this but also as part of laboratory benchmarking and quality assurance, the 14C community has undertaken a wide-scale, far-reaching and evolving programme of inter-comparisons, to the benefit of laboratories and users alike. This paper presents the results from the most recent exercise SIRI. The objectives of SIRI included, through choice of material, to contribute to the discussion concerning laboratory offsets and error multipliers in the context of IntCal (the International Calibration Programme) and to gain a better understanding of differences in background derived from a range of infinite age material types.

Heterogeneous Sensitivity of Tropical Precipitation Extremes during Growth and Mature Phases of Atmospheric Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parhi, P.; Giannini, A.; Lall, U.; Gentine, P.

2016-12-01

Assessing and managing risks posed by climate variability and change is challenging in the tropics, from both a socio-economic and a scientific perspective. Most of the vulnerable countries with a limited climate adaptation capability are in the tropics. However, climate projections, particularly of extreme precipitation, are highly uncertain there. The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project - Phase 5) inter-model range of extreme precipitation sensitivity to the global temperature under climate change is much larger in the tropics as compared to the extra-tropics. It ranges from nearly 0% to greater than 30% across models (O'Gorman 2012). The uncertainty is also large in historical gauge or satellite based observational records. These large uncertainties in the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes highlight the need to better understand how tropical precipitation extremes respond to warming. We hypothesize that one of the factors explaining the large uncertainty is due to differing sensitivities during different phases of warming. We consider the `growth' and `mature' phases of warming under climate variability case- typically associated with an El Niño event. In the remote tropics (away from tropical Pacific Ocean), the response of the precipitation extremes during the two phases can be through different pathways: i) a direct and fast changing radiative forcing in an atmospheric column, acting top-down due to the tropospheric warming, and/or ii) an indirect effect via changes in surface temperatures, acting bottom-up through surface water and energy fluxes. We also speculate that the insights gained here might be useful in interpreting the large sensitivity under climate change scenarios, since the physical mechanisms during the two warming phases under climate variability case, have some correspondence with an increasing and stabilized green house gas emission scenarios.

Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Chang; Zheng, Xiao-Tong

2018-01-01

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model.

Assessment of CMIP5 historical simulations of rainfall over Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Liu, Jiandong; Nguyen, Ngoc Son; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

2018-05-01

We present preliminary analyses of the historical (1986-2005) climate simulations of a ten-member subset of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models over Southeast Asia. The objective of this study was to evaluate the general circulation models' performance in simulating the mean state of climate over this less-studied climate vulnerable region, with a focus on precipitation. Results indicate that most of the models are unable to reproduce the observed state of climate over Southeast Asia. Though the multi-model ensemble mean is a better representation of the observations, the uncertainties in the individual models are far high. There is no particular model that performed well in simulating the historical climate of Southeast Asia. There seems to be no significant influence of the spatial resolutions of the models on the quality of simulation, despite the view that higher resolution models fare better. The study results emphasize on careful consideration of models for impact studies and the need to improve the next generation of models in their ability to simulate regional climates better.

An overview of sensor calibration inter-comparison and applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xiong, Xiaoxiong; Cao, Changyong; Chander, Gyanesh

2010-01-01

Long-term climate data records (CDR) are often constructed using observations made by multiple Earth observing sensors over a broad range of spectra and a large scale in both time and space. These sensors can be of the same or different types operated on the same or different platforms. They can be developed and built with different technologies and are likely operated over different time spans. It has been known that the uncertainty of climate models and data records depends not only on the calibration quality (accuracy and stability) of individual sensors, but also on their calibration consistency across instruments and platforms. Therefore, sensor calibration inter-comparison and validation have become increasingly demanding and will continue to play an important role for a better understanding of the science product quality. This paper provides an overview of different methodologies, which have been successfully applied for sensor calibration inter-comparison. Specific examples using different sensors, including MODIS, AVHRR, and ETM+, are presented to illustrate the implementation of these methodologies.

InterPred: A pipeline to identify and model protein-protein interactions.

PubMed

Mirabello, Claudio; Wallner, Björn

2017-06-01

Protein-protein interactions (PPI) are crucial for protein function. There exist many techniques to identify PPIs experimentally, but to determine the interactions in molecular detail is still difficult and very time-consuming. The fact that the number of PPIs is vastly larger than the number of individual proteins makes it practically impossible to characterize all interactions experimentally. Computational approaches that can bridge this gap and predict PPIs and model the interactions in molecular detail are greatly needed. Here we present InterPred, a fully automated pipeline that predicts and model PPIs from sequence using structural modeling combined with massive structural comparisons and molecular docking. A key component of the method is the use of a novel random forest classifier that integrate several structural features to distinguish correct from incorrect protein-protein interaction models. We show that InterPred represents a major improvement in protein-protein interaction detection with a performance comparable or better than experimental high-throughput techniques. We also show that our full-atom protein-protein complex modeling pipeline performs better than state of the art protein docking methods on a standard benchmark set. In addition, InterPred was also one of the top predictors in the latest CAPRI37 experiment. InterPred source code can be downloaded from http://wallnerlab.org/InterPred Proteins 2017; 85:1159-1170. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Middle Atmosphere of the Southern Hemisphere (MASH) Global meteor observations system (GLOBMET) Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements (SSIM) Global Observations and Studies of Stratospheric Aerosols (GOSSA): Progress with the MASH project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oneill, A.

1989-01-01

The aim of the MASH project is to study the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the Southern Hemisphere, emphasizing inter-hemispheric differences. Both observational data and data from simulations with numerical models are being used. It is intended that MASH will be complemented by parallel studies on the transport and photochemistry of trace species in the Southern Hemisphere. Impetus for such studies has come from the unexpected finding of a springtime ozone hole over Antarctica. A summary of recent progress with the MASH project is given. Data from polar orbiting satellites are used to discuss the large scale circulation found in the Southern Hemisphere at extratropical latitudes. Comparisons are made with that of the Northern Hemisphere. Particular attention is paid to the springtime final warming, the most spectacular large scale phenomenon in the statosphere of the Southern Hemisphere. The circulation before and after this event has to be taken into account in theories for the formation and subsequent disappearance of the ozone hole.

Design and Development of a User Interface for the Dynamic Model of Software Project Management.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-01

rectory of the user’s choice for future...the last choice selected. Let us assume for the sake of this tour that the user has selected all eight choices . ESTIMATED ACTUAL PROJECT SIZE DEFINITION...manipulation of varaibles in the * •. TJin~ca model "h ... ser Inter ace for the Dynamica model was designed b in iterative process of prototyping

A biomechanical modeling-guided simultaneous motion estimation and image reconstruction technique (SMEIR-Bio) for 4D-CBCT reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Xiaokun; Zhang, You; Wang, Jing

2018-02-01

Reconstructing four-dimensional cone-beam computed tomography (4D-CBCT) images directly from respiratory phase-sorted traditional 3D-CBCT projections can capture target motion trajectory, reduce motion artifacts, and reduce imaging dose and time. However, the limited numbers of projections in each phase after phase-sorting decreases CBCT image quality under traditional reconstruction techniques. To address this problem, we developed a simultaneous motion estimation and image reconstruction (SMEIR) algorithm, an iterative method that can reconstruct higher quality 4D-CBCT images from limited projections using an inter-phase intensity-driven motion model. However, the accuracy of the intensity-driven motion model is limited in regions with fine details whose quality is degraded due to insufficient projection number, which consequently degrades the reconstructed image quality in corresponding regions. In this study, we developed a new 4D-CBCT reconstruction algorithm by introducing biomechanical modeling into SMEIR (SMEIR-Bio) to boost the accuracy of the motion model in regions with small fine structures. The biomechanical modeling uses tetrahedral meshes to model organs of interest and solves internal organ motion using tissue elasticity parameters and mesh boundary conditions. This physics-driven approach enhances the accuracy of solved motion in the organ’s fine structures regions. This study used 11 lung patient cases to evaluate the performance of SMEIR-Bio, making both qualitative and quantitative comparisons between SMEIR-Bio, SMEIR, and the algebraic reconstruction technique with total variation regularization (ART-TV). The reconstruction results suggest that SMEIR-Bio improves the motion model’s accuracy in regions containing small fine details, which consequently enhances the accuracy and quality of the reconstructed 4D-CBCT images.

Inter-Individual Variability in Human Response to Low-Dose Ionizing Radiation, Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rocke, David

2016-08-01

In order to investigate inter-individual variability in response to low-dose ionizing radiation, we are working with three models, 1) in-vivo irradiated human skin, for which we have a realistic model, but with few subjects, all from a previous project, 2) ex-vivo irradiated human skin, for which we also have a realistic model, though with the limitations involved in keeping skin pieces alive in media, and 3) MatTek EpiDermFT skin plugs, which provides a more realistic model than cell lines, which is more controllable than human samples.

Interactive vs. Non-Interactive Ensembles for Weather Prediction and Climate Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duane, Gregory

2013-04-01

If the members of an ensemble of different models are allowed to interact with one another in run time, predictive skill can be improved as compared to that of any individual model or any average of indvidual model outputs. Inter-model connections in such an interactive ensemble can be trained, using historical data, so that the resulting ``supermodel" synchronizes with reality when used in weather-prediction mode, where the individual models perform data assimilation from each other (with trainable inter-model "observation error") as well as from real observations. In climate-projection mode, parameters of the individual models are changed, as might occur from an increase in GHG levels, and one obtains relevant statistical properties of the new supermodel attractor. In simple cases, it has been shown that training of the inter-model connections with the old parameter values gives a supermodel that is still predictive when the parameter values are changed. Here we inquire as to the circumstances under which supermodel performance can be expected to exceed that of the customary weighted average of model outputs. We consider a supermodel formed from quasigeostrophic channel models with different forcing coefficients, and introduce an effective training scheme for the inter-model connections. We show that the blocked-zonal index cycle is reproduced better by the supermodel than by any non-interactive ensemble in the extreme case where the forcing coefficients of the different models are very large or very small. With realistic differences in forcing coefficients, as would be representative of actual differences among IPCC-class models, the usual linearity assumption is justified and a weighted average of model outputs is adequate. It is therefore hypothesized that supermodeling is likely to be useful in situations where there are qualitative model differences, as arising from sub-gridscale parameterizations, that affect overall model behavior. Otherwise the usual ex post facto averaging will probably suffice. Previous results from an ENSO-prediction supermodel [Kirtman et al.] are re-examined in light of the hypothesis about the importance of qualitative inter-model differences.

Investigation into stutter ratio variability between different laboratories.

PubMed

Bright, Jo-Anne; Curran, James M

2014-11-01

The determination of parameters such as stutter ratio is important to inform a laboratory's forensic DNA profile interpretation strategy. As part of a large data analysis project to implement a continuous model of DNA profile interpretation we analysed stutter ratio data from eight different forensic laboratories for the Promega PowerPlex(®) 21 multiplex. This allowed a comparison of inter laboratory variation. The maximum difference for any one laboratory from the average of the best fit determined by the model was 0.31%. These results indicate that stutter ratios calculated from samples analysed using the same profiling kit are not expected to differ between laboratories, even those using different capillary electrophoresis platforms. A common set of laboratory parameters are able to be generated and used for profile interpretation at all laboratories using the same multiplex and cycle number, potentially reducing the need for individual laboratories to determine stutter ratios. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospects for Problems Associated with Integrative and Inter-comparative Analysis of Eddy Flux Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Y.; Miyata, A.; Nagai, H.; Mano, M.; Yamamoto, S.

2005-12-01

In last decade, numerous long-term eddy flux measurements have been conducted worldwide to assess annual/seasonal energy, water and carbon exchanges between terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere. And FLUXNET communities now seem to come into a next phase with the objectives: integration of flux data observed at various ecosystems and/or inter-sites comparative studies. For example, a big research project "S-1" is ongoing in Japan and other eastern Asian region to set up terrestrial carbon management of Asia in the 21st century. One of the highlights of S-1 project is to provide a carbon budget map of all over Asia based on integrated and inter-compared eddy flux data collected at 15 sites of S-1 membership. FLUXNET communities including S-1 project have recognized that integration and inter-comparison of eddy flux data are the key issues to understand aspects of energy, water and carbon budgets at regional scale. However, the issues have difficulties to be settled because each flux site applies own data processing methods and gap-filling methods with site-specified classification and threshold values. In order to conduct appropriate integrative and inter-comparative analysis for eddy flux data effectively, we made it clear that how the differences in the data processing method affect the obtained flux values and searched for suitable and common gap-filling methodology. The differences in the data processing methods affect the obtained flux data in the present study was discussed based on a comparative experiment in S-1 project. We prepared one-month common test data sets, which consisted of 10 Hz eddy covariance raw data and related half-hourly meteorological data obtained at a larch forest site and a paddy site, in the comparative experiment. The 15 sites of S-1 memberships processed the test data by using their own processing methods. The results indicated that combined influences of coordinate rotation, detrending and frequency response correction brought about up to 10% of flux discrepancy, and that the forest sites were more sensitive to differences in the data processing methods than the non-forest sites. Multiple imputation method (MI), one of the statistical operations for analyzing incomplete multivariate data set, is likely to be an easy-to-use and objective gap-filling method to account for missing eddy flux data. We also discussed validity of application of MI to fill missing flux data by comparing a gap-filled complete eddy flux data set obtained by MI with that by nonlinear regression method and look-up table method. It was revealed that, with suitable separation of the periods to be filled and proper selection of reference variables, MI has potential to be applied commonly to gap-filling missing flux data, and that MI can be a useful tool for FLUXNET communities to make inter-site comparison of long-term flux data.

What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference? Results from ISI-MIP the first Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, K.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Schewe, J.; Serdeczny, O.; Warszawski, L.

2012-12-01

The Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. Over 25 climate impact modelling teams from around the world, working within the agriculture, water, biomes, infrastructure and health sectors, are collaborating to find answers to the question "What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference?". The analysis is based on common, bias-corrected climate projections, and socio-economic pathways. The first, fast-tracked phase of the ISI-MIP has a focus on global impact models. The project's experimental design is formulated to distinguish the uncertainty introduced by the impact models themselves, from the inherent uncertainty in the climate projections and the variety of plausible socio-economic futures. Novel metrics, developed to emphasize societal impacts, will be used to identify regional 'hot-spots' of climate change impacts, as well as to quantify the cross-sectoral impact of the increasing frequency of extreme events in future climates. We present here first results from the Fast-Track phase of the project covering impact simulations in the biomes, agriculture and water sectors, in which the societal impacts of climate change are quantified for different levels of global warming. We also discuss the design of the scenario set-up and impact indicators chosen to suit the unique cross-sectoral, multi-model nature of the project.

Simulation of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific based on CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Haibo; Zhou, Weican; Zhao, Haikun

2017-09-01

Based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the summers of 1965-2005 over the western North Pacific (WNP) is simulated by a TC dynamically downscaling system. In consideration of diversity among climate models, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and equal-weighed model averaging (EMA) methods are applied to produce the ensemble large-scale environmental factors of the CMIP5 model outputs. The environmental factors generated by BMA and EMA methods are compared, as well as the corresponding TC simulations by the downscaling system. Results indicate that BMA method shows a significant advantage over the EMA. In addition, impacts of model selections on BMA method are examined. To each factor, ten models with better performance are selected from 30 CMIP5 models and then conduct BMA, respectively. As a consequence, the ensemble environmental factors and simulated TC activity are similar with the results from the 30 models' BMA, which verifies the BMA method can afford corresponding weight for each model in the ensemble based on the model's predictive skill. Thereby, the existence of poor performance models will not particularly affect the BMA effectiveness and the ensemble outcomes are improved. Finally, based upon the BMA method and downscaling system, we analyze the sensitivity of TC activity to three important environmental factors, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), large-scale steering flow, and vertical wind shear. Among three factors, SST and large-scale steering flow greatly affect TC tracks, while average intensity distribution is sensitive to all three environmental factors. Moreover, SST and vertical wind shear jointly play a critical role in the inter-annual variability of TC lifetime maximum intensity and frequency of intense TCs.

Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the western Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Manz, Bastian; Veliz Rosas, Claudia; Willems, Patrick; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

2016-04-01

The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research due to its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rain forest in carbon cycling. Climate change has also direct hydrological impact, and there have been increasing efforts to understand such dynamics at continental and subregional scales such as the scale of the western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the river. Using extremes value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 years. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100- year return floods). These findings are in agreement with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amid a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rain forest system over the greater Amazonia.

Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century.

PubMed

Basha, Ghouse; Kishore, P; Ratnam, M Venkat; Jayaraman, A; Agha Kouchak, Amir; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Velicogna, Isabella

2017-06-07

Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860-2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20 th century and projections during the 21 st century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20 th century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5 K by the end of the 21 st century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21 st century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080-2099 relative to a base period of 1986-2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved.

An Inter-Rater Comparison of DoD Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) and Human Factors Analysis and Classification System-Maritime (HFACS-M)

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington...of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN HUMAN SYSTEMS INTEGRATION from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2013 Author: Jason Bilbro...22  Figure 9.  Training slide example with speaker notes ......................................... 31

Bacterial abundance and activity in deep-sea sediments from the eastern North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eardly, D. F.; Carton, M. W.; Gallagher, J. M.; Patching, J. W.

Results are presented from four cruises to the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (PAP site) that took place during the BENGAL project from September 1996 to March 1998, and two cruises to the PAP and an oligotrophic site (EUMELI) that took place during the DEEPSEAS project between September 1993 and March 1994. Bacterial abundances in sediment and sediment contact water were measured by epifluorescence microscopy. Bacterial activity was determined by 3H-thymidine incorporation as a measure of DNA synthesis, and by 3H-leucine incorporation as a measure of protein synthesis. Activities were measured under atmospheric and in situ pressures and temperatures. Bacterial activity was usually higher in samples incubated at in situ pressure than those incubated at atmospheric pressure indicating that a barophilic community was dominant. Inter-cruise comparisons of abundance and activity during the BENGAL project showed no firm evidence of there being a seasonal response in the benthic microbial community to any episodic phytodetritus event. This was probably because of inter-annual variations in the quality and quantity of phytodetritus deposition at the PAP site, the rapid remineralization of fresh organic material by the microbial communities and the timing of cruises to the study area. 3H-thymidine and 3H-leucine incorporation in sediments was higher during the BENGAL period than the DEEPSEAS programme. A methodological change in the 3H-thymidine incorporation technique for sediments may explain the differences in DNA synthesis observed between the two projects, whereas the lower levels of protein synthesis observed during the DEEPSEAS programme probably reflected both inter-annual variations in activity at the PAP site and the lower productivity that prevailed at surface at the EUMELI oligotrophic site. Rates of 3H-thymidine incorporation in sediment contact water were similar during both projects.

A New Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Jones, J.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.

2013-12-01

This presentation provides an overview of the new methods developed by researchers in the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for regional climate impact assessment and analysis of adaptation in agricultural systems. This approach represents a departure from approaches in the literature in several dimensions. First, the approach is based on the analysis of agricultural systems (not individual crops) and is inherently trans-disciplinary: it is based on a deep collaboration among a team of climate scientists, agricultural scientists and economists to design and implement regional integrated assessments of agricultural systems. Second, in contrast to previous approaches that have imposed future climate on models based on current socio-economic conditions, this approach combines bio-physical and economic models with a new type of pathway analysis (Representative Agricultural Pathways) to parameterize models consistent with a plausible future world in which climate change would be occurring. Third, adaptation packages for the agricultural systems in a region are designed by the research team with a level of detail that is useful to decision makers, such as research administrators and donors, who are making agricultural R&D investment decisions. The approach is illustrated with examples from AgMIP's projects currently being carried out in Africa and South Asia.

WE-G-207-06: 3D Fluoroscopic Image Generation From Patient-Specific 4DCBCT-Based Motion Models Derived From Physical Phantom and Clinical Patient Images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dhou, S; Cai, W; Hurwitz, M

2015-06-15

Purpose: Respiratory-correlated cone-beam CT (4DCBCT) images acquired immediately prior to treatment have the potential to represent patient motion patterns and anatomy during treatment, including both intra- and inter-fractional changes. We develop a method to generate patient-specific motion models based on 4DCBCT images acquired with existing clinical equipment and used to generate time varying volumetric images (3D fluoroscopic images) representing motion during treatment delivery. Methods: Motion models are derived by deformably registering each 4DCBCT phase to a reference phase, and performing principal component analysis (PCA) on the resulting displacement vector fields. 3D fluoroscopic images are estimated by optimizing the resulting PCAmore » coefficients iteratively through comparison of the cone-beam projections simulating kV treatment imaging and digitally reconstructed radiographs generated from the motion model. Patient and physical phantom datasets are used to evaluate the method in terms of tumor localization error compared to manually defined ground truth positions. Results: 4DCBCT-based motion models were derived and used to generate 3D fluoroscopic images at treatment time. For the patient datasets, the average tumor localization error and the 95th percentile were 1.57 and 3.13 respectively in subsets of four patient datasets. For the physical phantom datasets, the average tumor localization error and the 95th percentile were 1.14 and 2.78 respectively in two datasets. 4DCBCT motion models are shown to perform well in the context of generating 3D fluoroscopic images due to their ability to reproduce anatomical changes at treatment time. Conclusion: This study showed the feasibility of deriving 4DCBCT-based motion models and using them to generate 3D fluoroscopic images at treatment time in real clinical settings. 4DCBCT-based motion models were found to account for the 3D non-rigid motion of the patient anatomy during treatment and have the potential to localize tumor and other patient anatomical structures at treatment time even when inter-fractional changes occur. This project was supported, in part, through a Master Research Agreement with Varian Medical Systems, Inc., Palo Alto, CA. The project was also supported, in part, by Award Number R21CA156068 from the National Cancer Institute.« less

Does global warming amplify interannual climate variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Chao; Li, Tim

2018-06-01

Based on the outputs of 30 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the fractional changes in the amplitude interannual variability (σ) for precipitation (P') and vertical velocity (ω') are assessed, and simple theoretical models are constructed to quantitatively understand the changes in σ(P') and σ(ω'). Both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios show similar results in term of the fractional change per degree of warming, with slightly lower inter-model uncertainty under RCP8.5. Based on the multi-model median, σ(P') generally increases but σ(ω') generally decreases under global warming but both are characterized by non-uniform spatial patterns. The σ(P') decrease over subtropical subsidence regions but increase elsewhere, with a regional averaged value of 1.4% K- 1 over 20°S-50°N under RCP8.5. Diagnoses show that the mechanisms for the change in σ(P') are different for climatological ascending and descending regions. Over ascending regions, the increase of mean state specific humidity contributes to a general increase of σ(P') but the change of σ(ω') dominates its spatial pattern and inter-model uncertainty. But over descending regions, the change of σ(P') and its inter-model uncertainty are constrained by the change of mean state precipitation. The σ(ω') is projected to be weakened almost everywhere except over equatorial Pacific, with a regional averaged fractional change of - 3.4% K- 1 at 500 hPa. The overall reduction of σ(ω') results from the increased mean state static stability, while the substantially increased σ(ω') at the mid-upper troposphere over equatorial Pacific and the inter-model uncertainty of the changes in σ(ω') are dominated by the change in the interannual variability of diabatic heating.

High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States

DOE PAGES

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui; ...

2016-09-01

We present high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes over the contiguous U.S. using a regional climate model (RegCM4) that dynamically downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project at 18km horizontal grid spacing. All model integrations span 41 years in the historical period (1965 – 2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010 – 2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and cover a domain that includes the contiguous U.S. and parts of Canada and Mexico. Should emissions continue to rise, surface temperatures in every region within the U.S. will reach amore » new climate norm well before mid 21st century regardless of the magnitudes of regional warming. Significant warming will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. The future temperature response will be partly regulated by changes in snow hydrology over the regions that historically receive a major portion of cold season precipitation in the form of snow. Our results indicate the existence of the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling at regional scales where per degree centigrade rise in surface temperature will lead to a 7.4% increase in precipitation from extremes. More importantly, both winter (snow) and summer (liquid) extremes are projected to increase across the U.S. These changes in precipitation characteristics will be driven by a shift towards shorter and wetter seasons. Altogether, projected changes in the regional hydro-climate can have substantial impacts on the natural and human systems across the U.S.« less

Historic AVHRR Processing in the Eumetsat Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (cmsaf) (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karlsson, K.

2010-12-01

The EUMETSAT CMSAF project (www.cmsaf.eu) compiles climatological datasets from various satellite sources with emphasis on the use of EUMETSAT-operated satellites. However, since climate monitoring primarily has a global scope, also datasets merging data from various satellites and satellite operators are prepared. One such dataset is the CMSAF historic GAC (Global Area Coverage) dataset which is based on AVHRR data from the full historic series of NOAA-satellites and the European METOP satellite in mid-morning orbit launched in October 2006. The CMSAF GAC dataset consists of three groups of products: Macroscopical cloud products (cloud amount, cloud type and cloud top), cloud physical products (cloud phase, cloud optical thickness and cloud liquid water path) and surface radiation products (including surface albedo). Results will be presented and discussed for all product groups, including some preliminary inter-comparisons with other datasets (e.g., PATMOS-X, MODIS and CloudSat/CALIPSO datasets). A background will also be given describing the basic methodology behind the derivation of all products. This will include a short historical review of AVHRR cloud processing and resulting AVHRR applications at SMHI. Historic GAC processing is one of five pilot projects selected by the SCOPE-CM (Sustained Co-Ordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite data for Climate Monitoring) project organised by the WMO Space programme. The pilot project is carried out jointly between CMSAF and NOAA with the purpose of finding an optimal GAC processing approach. The initial activity is to inter-compare results of the CMSAF GAC dataset and the NOAA PATMOS-X dataset for the case when both datasets have been derived using the same inter-calibrated AVHRR radiance dataset. The aim is to get further knowledge of e.g. most useful multispectral methods and the impact of ancillary datasets (for example from meteorological reanalysis datasets from NCEP and ECMWF). The CMSAF project is currently defining plans for another five years (2012-2017) of operations and development. New GAC reprocessing efforts are planned and new methodologies will be tested. Central questions here will be how to increase the quantitative use of the products through improving error and uncertainty estimates and how to compile the information in a way to allow meaningful and efficient ways of using the data for e.g. validation of climate model information.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Climate Impact Assessment for Pacific Northwest Agricultural Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.; Antle, J. M.; Zhang, H.; Capalbo, S. M.; Eigenbrode, S.; Kruger, C.; Stockle, C.; Wolfhorst, J. D.

2013-12-01

Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are projections of plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions used to carry out climate impact assessments for agriculture. The development of RAPs iss motivated by the fact that the various global and regional models used for agricultural climate change impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation or public availability. These practices have hampered attempts at model inter-comparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. This paper aims to (1) present RAPs developed for the principal wheat-producing region of the Pacific Northwest, and to (2) combine these RAPs with downscaled climate data, crop model simulations and economic model simulations to assess climate change impacts on winter wheat production and farm income. This research was carried out as part of a project funded by the USDA known as the Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (REACCH). The REACCH study region encompasses the major winter wheat production area in Pacific Northwest and preliminary research shows that farmers producing winter wheat could benefit from future climate change. However, the future world is uncertain in many dimensions, including commodity and input prices, production technology, and policies, as well as increased probability of disturbances (pests and diseases) associated with a changing climate. Many of these factors cannot be modeled, so they are represented in the regional RAPS. The regional RAPS are linked to global agricultural and shared social-economic pathways, and used along with climate change projections to simulate future outcomes for the wheat-based farms in the REACCH region.

Benchmarking carbon-nitrogen interactions in Earth System Models to observations: An inter-comparison of nitrogen limitation in global land surface models with carbon and nitrogen cycles (CLM-CN and O-CN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, R. Q.; Zaehle, S.; Templer, P. H.; Goodale, C. L.

2011-12-01

Predictions of climate change depend on accurately modeling the feedbacks among the carbon cycle, nitrogen cycle, and climate system. Several global land surface models have shown that nitrogen limitation determines how land carbon fluxes respond to rising CO2, nitrogen deposition, and climate change, thereby influencing predictions of climate change. However, the magnitude of the carbon-nitrogen-climate feedbacks varies considerably by model, leading to critical and timely questions of why they differ and how they compare to field observations. To address these questions, we initiated a model inter-comparison of spatial patterns and drivers of nitrogen limitation. The experiment assessed the regional consequences of sustained nitrogen additions in a set of 25-year global nitrogen fertilization simulations. The model experiments were designed to cover effects from small changes in nitrogen inputs associated with plausible increases in nitrogen deposition to large changes associated with field-based nitrogen fertilization experiments. The analyses of model simulations included assessing the geographically varying degree of nitrogen limitation on plant and soil carbon cycling and the mechanisms underlying model differences. Here, we present results from two global land-surface models (CLM-CN and O-CN) with differing approaches to modeling carbon-nitrogen interactions. The predictions from each model were compared to a set of globally distributed observational data that includes nitrogen fertilization experiments, 15N tracer studies, small catchment nitrogen input-output studies, and syntheses across nitrogen deposition gradients. Together these datasets test many aspects of carbon-nitrogen coupling and are able to differentiate between the two models. Overall, this study is the first to explicitly benchmark carbon and nitrogen interactions in Earth System Models using a range of observations and is a foundation for future inter-comparisons.

The UK Earth System Models Marine Biogeochemical Evaluation Toolkit, BGC-val

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Mora, Lee

2017-04-01

The Biogeochemical Validation toolkit, BGC-val, is a model and grid independent python-based marine model evaluation framework that automates much of the validation of the marine component of an Earth System Model. BGC-val was initially developed to be a flexible and extensible system to evaluate the spin up of the marine UK Earth System Model (UKESM). However, the grid-independence and flexibility means that it is straightforward to adapt the BGC-val framework to evaluate other marine models. In addition to the marine component of the UKESM, this toolkit has been adapted to compare multiple models, including models from the CMIP5 and iMarNet inter-comparison projects. The BGC-val toolkit produces multiple levels of analysis which are presented in a simple to use interactive html5 document. Level 1 contains time series analyses, showing the development over time of many important biogeochemical and physical ocean metrics, such as the Global primary production or the Drake passage current. The second level of BGC-val is an in-depth spatial analyses of a single point in time. This is a series of point to point comparison of model and data in various regions, such as a comparison of Surface Nitrate in the model vs data from the world ocean atlas. The third level analyses are specialised ad-hoc packages to go in-depth on a specific question, such as the development of Oxygen minimum zones in the Equatorial Pacific. In additional to the three levels, the html5 document opens with a Level 0 table showing a summary of the status of the model run. The beta version of this toolkit is available via the Plymouth Marine Laboratory Gitlab server and uses the BSD 3 clause license.

Usability: A Teaching and School Service Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyder, Johnny

2009-01-01

Your next usability project could be waiting for you in the college library, registration office, or online admissions process that your college or university utilizes in their daily transactions. As an added bonus, these exercises supplement the IS2002 curriculum model, benefit the instructor's institution, build inter-departmental collaboration,…

Seasonal ozone vertical profiles over North America using the AQMEII group of air quality models: model inter-comparison and stratospheric intrusion

EPA Science Inventory

This study utilizes simulations for the North American domain from four modeling groups that participated in the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3) to evaluate seasonal ozone vertical profiles simulated for the year 2010 against ozo...

Climate Change-Induced Shifts in the Hydrological Regime of the Upper Amazon Basin and Its Impacts on Local Eco-Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkafli, Z. D.; Buytaert, W.; Veliz, C.

2014-12-01

The potential impact of a changing climate on Andean-Amazonian hydrology is an important question for scientists and policymakers alike, because of its implications for local ecosystem services such as water resources availability, river flow regulation, and eco-hydrology. This study presents new projections of climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river in Peru, and the consequent effect on two vulnerable species of freshwater turtle populations Podocnemis expansa (Amazon turtle) and Podocnemis unilis (yellow-spotted side neck turtle), which nest on its banks. To do this, the global climate model outputs of radiation, temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity data from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are propagated through a hydrological model to simulate changes in river flow. The model consists of a land surface scheme called the Joint-UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) that is coupled to a distributed river flow routing routine, which also accounts for floodplain attenuation of flood peaks. It is parameterized using a combination of remote sensing (TRMM, MODIS, an Landsat) and ground observational data to reproduce reliably the historical floodplain regime. The climate-induced shifts are inferred from a comparison between the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections against the historical scenario. Changes in the 10th and 95th percentile of flows, as well as the distributions in the length of the dry and wet seasons are analysed. These parameters are then used to construct probability models of biologically significant events (BSEs - extreme dry year, extreme wet year and repiquete), which are negative drivers of the turtle-egg ovipositioning, nesting and hatching. The results indicate that the projected increase in wet-season precipitation overcome the increase in evapotranspirative demand from an increase in temperature, resulting in more frequent and longer term flooding that causes a net loss of total turtle-egg counts. Additionally, changes in air and water temperature may alter the male / female ratio of the turtles.

ISI-MIP: The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, V.; Dahlemann, S.; Frieler, K.; Piontek, F.; Schewe, J.; Serdeczny, O.; Warszawski, L.

2013-12-01

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. The project's experimental design is formulated to distinguish the uncertainty introduced by the impact models themselves, from the inherent uncertainty in the climate projections and the variety of plausible socio-economic futures. The unique cross-sectoral scope of the project provides the opportunity to study cascading effects of impacts in interacting sectors and to identify regional 'hot spots' where multiple sectors experience extreme impacts. Another emphasis lies on the development of novel metrics to describe societal impacts of a warmer climate. We briefly outline the methodological framework, and then present selected results of the first, fast-tracked phase of ISI-MIP. The fast track brought together 35 global impact models internationally, spanning five sectors across human society and the natural world (agriculture, water, natural ecosystems, health and coastal infrastructure), and using the latest generation of global climate simulations (RCP projections from the CMIP5 archive) and socioeconomic drivers provided within the SSP process. We also introduce the second phase of the project, which will enlarge the scope of ISI-MIP by encompassing further impact sectors (e.g., forestry, fisheries, permafrost) and regional modeling approaches. The focus for the next round of simulations will be the validation and improvement of models based on historical observations and the analysis of variability and extreme events. Last but not least, we discuss the longer-term objective of ISI-MIP to initiate a coordinated, ongoing impact assessment process, driven by the entire impact community and in parallel with well-established climate model intercomparisons (CMIP).

Data-Model and Inter-Model Comparisons of the GEM Outflow Events Using the Space Weather Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Eccles, J. V.; Barakat, A. R.; Kistler, L. M.; Haaland, S.; Schunk, R. W.; Chappell, C. R.

2015-12-01

Two storm periods were selected by the Geospace Environment Modeling Ionospheric Outflow focus group for community collaborative study because of its high magnetospheric activity and extensive data coverage: the September 27 - October 4, 2002 corotating interaction region event and the October 22 - 29 coronal mass ejection event. During both events, the FAST, Polar, Cluster, and other missions made key observations, creating prime periods for data-model comparison. The GEM community has come together to simulate this period using many different methods in order to evaluate models, compare results, and expand our knowledge of ionospheric outflow and its effects on global dynamics. This paper presents Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) simulations of these important periods compared against observations from the Polar TIDE, Cluster CODIF and EFW instruments. Emphasis will be given to the second event. Density and velocity of oxygen and hydrogen throughout the lobes, plasma sheet, and inner magnetosphere will be the focus of these comparisons. For these simulations, the SWMF couples the multifluid version of BATS-R-US MHD to a variety of ionospheric outflow models of varying complexity. The simplest is outflow arising from constant MHD inner boundary conditions. Two first-principles-based models are also leveraged: the Polar Wind Outflow Model (PWOM), a fluid treatment of outflow dynamics, and the Generalized Polar Wind (GPW) model, which combines fluid and particle-in-cell approaches. Each model is capable of capturing a different set of energization mechanisms, yielding different outflow results. The data-model comparisons will illustrate how well each approach captures reality and which energization mechanisms are most important. Inter-model comparisons will illustrate how the different outflow specifications affect the magnetosphere. Specifically, it is found that the GPW provides increased heavy ion outflow over a broader spatial range than the alternative models, improving comparisons in some regions but degrading the agreement in others. This work will also assess our current capability to reproduce ionosphere-magnetosphere mass coupling.

How Might Recharge Change Under Projected Climate Change in Western US?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niraula, R.; Meixner, T.; Rodell, M.; Ajami, H.; Gochis, D. J.; Castro, C. L.

2015-12-01

Although ground water is a major source of water in the western US, little research has been done on the impacts of climate change on western groundwater storage and recharge. Here we assess the impact of projected changes in precipitation and temperature on groundwater recharge across the western US by dividing the domain into five major regions (viz. Northern Rockies and Plains, South, Southwest, Northwest and West). Hydrologic outputs from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model based on Bias-Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections from 11 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for Representative Concentration pathway 6.0 (RCP 6.0) scenarios were selected for projecting changes in recharge. Projections are made for near future (2020-2050) and far future (2070-2100) relative to the historical period (1970-2000). Averaged over the domain, half of the GCMs caused VIC to increase recharge across the region while the remaining half resulted in decreased recharge for both the near (-10.1% to 5.8%) and far (-9.7% to 17%) future. A majority (9 out of 11 GCMs) of the VIC simulations projected increased recharge in the Northern Rockies and Plains for both the near and far future. A majority of the simulations agreed on reduced recharge in other regions for the near future. For the far future, a majority of the simulations agreed on decreased recharge in the South (9 out of 11 GCMs) and Southwest (7 out of 11 GCMs) regions. The change is projected to be largest for the South region which could see recharged reduced by as much as 50%. Changes in recharge in the Northwest region are predicted to be small (within 10% of historical recharge). Despite the large variability in projected recharge across the GCMs, recharge projections from this study will help water managers with long term water management planning.

Multi-Mission Remote Sensing of Suspended Particulate Matter and Diffuse Attenuation Coefficient in the Yangtze Estuarine and Coastal Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, X.; Salama, S.; Shen, F.

2016-08-01

During the Dragon-3 project (ID: 10555) period, we developed and improved the atmospheric correction algorithms (AC) and retrieval models of suspended sediment concentration ( ) and diffuse attenuation coefficient ( ) for the Yangtze estuarine and coastal waters. The developed models were validated by measurements with consistently stable and fairly accurate estimations, reproducing reasonable distribution maps of and over the study area. Spatial-temporal variations of were presented and the mechanisms of the sediment transport were discussed. We further examined the compatibility of the developed AC algorithms and retrieval model and the consistency of satellite products for multi-sensor such as MODIS/Terra/Aqua, MERIS/Envisat, MERSI/ FY-3 and GOCI. The inter-comparison of multi- sensor suggested that different satellite products can be combined to increase revisit frequency and complement a temporal gap of time series satellites that may exist between on-orbit and off- orbit, facilitating a better monitor on the spatial- temporal dynamics of .

The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) project: a summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, Ed; Day, Jonny; Tietsche, Steffen

2016-04-01

Recent years have seen significant developments in seasonal-to-interannual timescale climate prediction capabilities. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had not been assessed. We describe a multi-model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Inter-annual TimEscales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable. In order to achieve this, a coordinated set of idealised initial-value predictability experiments, with seven general circulation models, was conducted. This was the first model intercomparison project designed to quantify the predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to inter-annual timescales. Here we provide a summary and update of the project's results which include: (1) quantifying the predictability of Arctic climate, especially sea ice; (2) the state-dependence of this predictability, finding that extreme years are potentially more predictable than neutral years; (3) analysing a spring 'predictability barrier' to skillful forecasts; (4) initial sea ice thickness information provides much of the skill for summer forecasts; (5) quantifying the sources of error growth and uncertainty in Arctic predictions. The dataset is now publicly available.

Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

2016-04-01

The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

GEO-LEO reflectance band inter-comparison with BRDF and atmospheric scattering corrections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Tiejun; Xiong, Xiaoxiong Jack; Keller, Graziela; Wu, Xiangqian

2017-09-01

The inter-comparison of the reflective solar bands between the instruments onboard a geostationary orbit satellite and onboard a low Earth orbit satellite is very helpful to assess their calibration consistency. GOES-R was launched on November 19, 2016 and Himawari 8 was launched October 7, 2014. Unlike the previous GOES instruments, the Advanced Baseline Imager on GOES-16 (GOES-R became GOES-16 after November 29 when it reached orbit) and the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on Himawari 8 have onboard calibrators for the reflective solar bands. The assessment of calibration is important for their product quality enhancement. MODIS and VIIRS, with their stringent calibration requirements and excellent on-orbit calibration performance, provide good references. The simultaneous nadir overpass (SNO) and ray-matching are widely used inter-comparison methods for reflective solar bands. In this work, the inter-comparisons are performed over a pseudo-invariant target. The use of stable and uniform calibration sites provides comparison with appropriate reflectance level, accurate adjustment for band spectral coverage difference, reduction of impact from pixel mismatching, and consistency of BRDF and atmospheric correction. The site in this work is a desert site in Australia (latitude -29.0 South; longitude 139.8 East). Due to the difference in solar and view angles, two corrections are applied to have comparable measurements. The first is the atmospheric scattering correction. The satellite sensor measurements are top of atmosphere reflectance. The scattering, especially Rayleigh scattering, should be removed allowing the ground reflectance to be derived. Secondly, the angle differences magnify the BRDF effect. The ground reflectance should be corrected to have comparable measurements. The atmospheric correction is performed using a vector version of the Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum modeling and BRDF correction is performed using a semi-empirical model. AHI band 1 (0.47μm) shows good matching with VIIRS band M3 with difference of 0.15%. AHI band 5 (1.69μm) shows largest difference in comparison with VIIRS M10.

Upper-soil moisture inter-comparison from SMOS's products and land surface models over the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polcher, Jan; Barella-Ortiz, Anaïs; Aires, Filipe; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Gelati, Emiliano; Rodríguez-Fernández, Nemesio

2015-04-01

Soil moisture is a key state variable of the hydrological cycle. It conditions runoff, infiltration and evaporation over continental surfaces, and is key for forecasting droughts and floods. It plays thus an important role in surface-atmosphere interactions. Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) can be measured by in situ measurements, by satellite observations or modelled using land surface models. As a complementary tool, data assimilation can be used to combine both modelling and satellite observations. The work presented here is an inter-comparison of retrieved and modelled SSM data, for the 2010 - 2012 period, over the Iberian Peninsula. The region has been chosen because its vegetation cover is not very dense and includes strong contrasts in the rainfall regimes and thus a diversity of behaviours for SSM. Furthermore this semi-arid region is strongly dependent on a good management of its water resources. Satellite observations correspond to the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) retrievals: the L2 product from an optimal interpolation retrieval, and 3 other products using Neural Network retrievals with different input information: SMOS time indexes, purely SMOS data, or addition of the European Advanced Scaterometer (ASCAT) backscattering, and the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) surface temperature information. The modelled soil moistures have been taken from the ORCHIDEE (ORganising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms) and the HTESSEL (Hydrology-Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) land surface models. Both models are forced with the same atmospheric conditions (as part of the Earth2Observe FP7 project) over the period but they represent the surface soil moisture with very different degrees of complexity. ORCHIDEE has 5 levels in the top 5 centimetres of soil while in HTESSEL this variable is part of the top soil moisture level. The two types of SMOS retrievals are compared to the model outputs in their spatial and temporal characteristics. The comparison with the model helps to identify which retrieval configuration is most consistent with our understanding of surface soil moisture in this region. In particular we have determined how each of the soil moisture products is related to the spatio-temporal variations of rainfall. In large parts of the Iberian Peninsula the co-variance of remote sensed SSM and rainfall is consistent with that of the models. But for some regions questions are raised. The variability of SSM observed by SMOS in the North West of the Iberian Peninsula is similar to that of rainfall, at least this relation of SSM and rainfall is closer than suggested by the two models.

The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Tietsche, S.; Collins, M.; Goessling, H. F.; Guemas, V.; Guillory, A.; Hurlin, W. J.; Ishii, M.; Keeley, S. P. E.; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Sigmond, M.; Tatebe, H.; Hawkins, E.

2015-10-01

Recent decades have seen significant developments in seasonal-to-interannual timescale climate prediction capabilities. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had not been assessed. This paper describes a multi-model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Inter-annual Timescales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable. In order to achieve this, a coordinated set of idealised initial-value predictability experiments, with seven general circulation models, was conducted. This was the first model intercomparison project designed to quantify the predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to inter-annual timescales. Here we present a description of the archived data set (which is available at the British Atmospheric Data Centre) and an update of the project's results. Although designed to address Arctic predictability, this data set could also be used to assess the predictability of other regions and modes of climate variability on these timescales, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, A.; Ivins, E. R.

2015-12-01

Fluctuations in the mass of ice stored in Antarctica and Greenland are of considerable societal importance. The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise (IMBIE) is a joint-initiative of ESA and NASA aimed at producing a single estimate of the global sea level contribution to polar ice sheet losses. Within IMBIE, estimates of ice sheet mass balance are developed from a variety of satellite geodetic techniques using a common spatial and temporal reference frame and a common appreciation of the contributions due to external signals. The project brings together the laboratories and space agencies that have been instrumental in developing independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance to date. In its first phase, IMBIE involved 27 science teams, and delivered a first community assessment of ice sheet mass imbalance to replace 40 individual estimates. The project established that (i) there is good agreement between the three main satellite-based techniques for estimating ice sheet mass balance, (ii) combining satellite data sets leads to significant improvement in certainty, (iii) the polar ice sheets contributed 11 ± 4 mm to global sea levels between 1992 and 2012, and (iv) that combined ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have increased over time, rising from 10% of the global trend in the early 1990's to 30% in the late 2000's. Demand for an updated assessment has grown, and there are now new satellite missions, new geophysical corrections, new techniques, and new teams producing data. The period of overlap between independent satellite techniques has increased from 5 to 12 years, and the full period of satellite data over which an assessment can be performed has increased from 19 to 40 years. It is also clear that multiple satellite techniques are required to confidently separate mass changes associated with snowfall and ice dynamical imbalance - information that is of critical importance for climate modelling. This presentation outlines the approach for the second phase of IMBIE, including the project organisation, the work programme and schedule, the main science goals, and its current status, and reviews the recent and historical contributions that the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have made to global sea level rise.

High-resolution multi-model projections of onshore wind resources over Portugal under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, Miguel; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Cardoso, Rita M.

2018-05-01

We present a detailed evaluation of wind energy density (WED) over Portugal, based on the EURO-CORDEX database of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Most RCMs showed reasonable accuracy in reproducing the observed near-surface wind speed. The climatological patterns of WED displayed large sub-regional heterogeneity, with higher values over coastal regions and steep orography. Subsequently, we investigated the future changes of WED throughout the twenty-first century, considering mid- and end-century periods, and two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). On the yearly average, the multi-model ensemble WED changes were below 10% (15%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). However, the projected WED anomalies displayed strong seasonality, dominated by low positive values in summer (< 10% for both scenarios), negative values in winter and spring (up to - 10% (- 20%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)), and stronger negative anomalies in autumn (up to - 25% (- 35%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)). These projected WED anomalies displayed large sub-regional variability. The largest reductions (and lowest increases) are linked to the northern and central-eastern elevated terrain, and the southwestern coast. In contrast, the largest increases (and lowest reductions) are linked to the central-western orographic features of moderate elevation. The projections also showed changes in inter-annual variability of WED, with small increases for annual averages, but with distinct behavior when considering year-to-year variability over a specific season: small increases in winter, larger increases in summer, slight decrease in autumn, and no relevant change in spring. The changes in inter-annual variability also displayed strong dependence on the underlying terrain. Finally, we found significant model spread in the magnitude of projected WED anomalies and inter-annual variability, affecting even the signal of the changes.

Analysis of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, J. O.; Burkhard, C. D.; Dotson, J. L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Mathias, D. L.; Aftosmis, M. J.; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Morrison, D. D.; Sears, D. W. G.; Berger, M. J.

2015-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration initiated a new project focused on Planetary Defense on October 1, 2014. The new project is funded by NASAs Near Earth Object Program (Lindley Johnson, Program Executive). This presentation describes the objectives, functions and plans of four tasks encompassed in the new project and their inter-relations. Additionally, this project provides for outreach to facilitate partnerships with other organizations to help meet the objectives of the planetary defense community. The four tasks are (1) Characterization of Near Earth Asteroids, (2) Physics-Based Modeling of Meteor Entry and Breakup (3) Surface Impact Modeling and (4) Physics-Based Impact Risk Assessment.

Satellite Derived Volcanic Ash Product Inter-Comparison in Support to SCOPE-Nowcasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddans, Richard; Thomas, Gareth; Pavolonis, Mike; Bojinski, Stephan

2016-04-01

In support of aeronautical meteorological services, WMO organized a satellite-based volcanic ash retrieval algorithm inter-comparison activity, to improve the consistency of quantitative volcanic ash products from satellites, under the Sustained, Coordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Nowcasting (SCOPEe Nowcasting) initiative (http:/ jwww.wmo.int/pagesjprogjsatjscopee nowcasting_en.php). The aims of the intercomparison were as follows: 1. Select cases (Sarychev Peak 2009, Eyjafyallajökull 2010, Grimsvötn 2011, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle 2011, Kirishimayama 2011, Kelut 2014), and quantify the differences between satellite-derived volcanic ash cloud properties derived from different techniques and sensors; 2. Establish a basic validation protocol for satellite-derived volcanic ash cloud properties; 3. Document the strengths and weaknesses of different remote sensing approaches as a function of satellite sensor; 4. Standardize the units and quality flags associated with volcanic cloud geophysical parameters; 5. Provide recommendations to Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) and other users on how to best to utilize quantitative satellite products in operations; 6. Create a "road map" for future volcanic ash related scientific developments and inter-comparison/validation activities that can also be applied to SO2 clouds and emergent volcanic clouds. Volcanic ash satellite remote sensing experts from operational and research organizations were encouraged to participate in the inter-comparison activity, to establish the plans for the inter-comparison and to submit data sets. RAL was contracted by EUMETSAT to perform a systematic inter-comparison of all submitted datasets and results were reported at the WMO International Volcanic Ash Inter-comparison Meeting to held on 29 June - 2 July 2015 in Madison, WI, USA (http:/ /cimss.ssec.wisc.edujmeetings/vol_ash14). 26 different data sets were submitted, from a range of passive imagers and spectrometers and these were inter-compared against each other and against validation data such as CALIPSO lidar, ground-based lidar and aircraft observations. Results of the comparison exercise will be presented together with the conclusions and recommendations arising from the activity.

Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vives i Batlle, J.; Beresford, N. A.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of 90Sr, 131I and 137Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and whichmore » uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.« less

The InterFrost benchmark of Thermo-Hydraulic codes for cold regions hydrology - first inter-comparison phase results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grenier, Christophe; Rühaak, Wolfram

2016-04-01

Climate change impacts in permafrost regions have received considerable attention recently due to the pronounced warming trends experienced in recent decades and which have been projected into the future. Large portions of these permafrost regions are characterized by surface water bodies (lakes, rivers) that interact with the surrounding permafrost often generating taliks (unfrozen zones) within the permafrost that allow for hydrologic interactions between the surface water bodies and underlying aquifers and thus influence the hydrologic response of a landscape to climate change. Recent field studies and modeling exercises indicate that a fully coupled 2D or 3D Thermo-Hydraulic (TH) approach is required to understand and model past and future evolution such units (Kurylyk et al. 2014). However, there is presently a paucity of 3D numerical studies of permafrost thaw and associated hydrological changes, which can be partly attributed to the difficulty in verifying multi-dimensional results produced by numerical models. A benchmark exercise was initialized at the end of 2014. Participants convened from USA, Canada, Europe, representing 13 simulation codes. The benchmark exercises consist of several test cases inspired by existing literature (e.g. McKenzie et al., 2007) as well as new ones (Kurylyk et al. 2014; Grenier et al. in prep.; Rühaak et al. 2015). They range from simpler, purely thermal 1D cases to more complex, coupled 2D TH cases (benchmarks TH1, TH2, and TH3). Some experimental cases conducted in a cold room complement the validation approach. A web site hosted by LSCE (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) is an interaction platform for the participants and hosts the test case databases at the following address: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/interfrost. The results of the first stage of the benchmark exercise will be presented. We will mainly focus on the inter-comparison of participant results for the coupled cases TH2 & TH3. Both cases are essentially theoretical but include the full complexity of the coupled non-linear set of equations (heat transfer with conduction, advection, phase change and Darcian flow). The complete set of inter-comparison results shows that the participating codes all produce simulations which are quantitatively similar and correspond to physical intuition. From a quantitative perspective, they agree well over the whole set of performance measures. The differences among the simulation results will be discussed in more depth throughout the test cases especially for the identification of the threshold times for each system as these exhibited the least agreement. However, the results suggest that in spite of the difficulties associated with the resolution of the set of TH equations (coupled and non-linear structure with phase change providing steep slopes), the developed codes provide robust results with a qualitatively reasonable representation of the processes and offer a quantitatively realistic basis. Further perspectives of the exercise will also be presented.

Trends in ice sheet mass balance, 1992 to 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, A.; Ivins, E. R.; Smith, B.; Velicogna, I.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Rignot, E. J.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Briggs, K.; Hogg, A.; Krinner, G.; Joughin, I. R.; Nowicki, S.; Payne, A. J.; Scambos, T.; Schlegel, N.; Moyano, G.; Konrad, H.

2017-12-01

The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise (IMBIE) is a community effort, jointly supported by ESA and NASA, that aims to provide a consensus estimate of ice sheet mass balance from satellite gravimetry, altimetry and mass budget assessments, on an annual basis. The project has five experiment groups, one for each of the satellite techniques and two others to analyse surface mass balance (SMB) and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The basic premise for the exercise is that individual ice sheet mass balance datasets are generated by project participants using common spatial and temporal domains to allow meaningful inter-comparison, and this controlled comparison in turn supports aggregation of the individual datasets over their full period. Participation is open to the full community, and the quality and consistency of submissions is regulated through a series of data standards and documentation requirements. The second phase of IMBIE commenced in 2015, with participant data submitted in 2016 and a combined estimate due for public release in 2017. Data from 48 participant groups were submitted to one of the three satellite mass balance technique groups or to the ancillary dataset groups. The individual mass balance estimates and ancillary datasets have been compared and combined within the respective groups. Following this, estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from the individual techniques were then compared and combined. The result is single estimates of ice sheet mass balance for Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula. The participants, methodology and results of the exercise will be presented in this paper.

Instructional Teleconferencing Models for Enhancing the Quality of Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Showalter, Robert G.; Showalter, Marietta B.

This compilation of models for the utilization of instructional teleconferencing begins with narrative information from the final report of the Inter-Institutional Instructional Teleconferencing for Indiana School Personnel Serving Handicapped Children Project, a collaborative venture undertaken by Purdue University and the Lafayette School…

Climate Change Impact on Water Balance at the Chipola River Watershed in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffen, J. M.; Chen, X.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.

2013-12-01

As the largest tributary to the Apalachicola River, the Chipola River originates in southern Alabama, flows through the Florida Panhandle and drains into the Gulf of Mexico. The Chipola watershed is located in an intermediate climate environment with an aridity index of approximately 1.0. However, climate change affects the hydrologic cycle of Chipola River watershed at various temporal and spatial scales. Studying the effects of climate variations is of great importance for water and environmental management purposes in this watershed. This research is mainly focused on assessing climate change impact on the partitioning of rainfall and the following runoff generation in Chipola watershed, from long-term mean annual to inter-annual and to seasonal and monthly scales. A comprehensive water balance model at inter-annual scale is built in this study based on Budyko's framework, two-stage runoff theory and proportionality hypothesis. The inter-annual scale model considers the impact of storage change, seasonality and landscape controls, which are normally assumed to be negligible on a long-term scale. The model is applied to the Chipola River Watershed in Florida to project future water balance pattern with the input from a Regional Climate Model projection. Based on the projection results: evaporation will increase in the future in all 12 months; runoff will increase only in dry months of July to October, while significantly decrease in wet months of December to April; storage change will increase in wet months of January to April, while decrease in the dry months of August to November.

Solving challenges in inter- and trans-disciplinary working teams: Lessons from the surgical technology field.

PubMed

Korb, Werner; Geißler, Norman; Strauß, Gero

2015-03-01

Engineering a medical technology is a complex process, therefore it is important to include experts from different scientific fields. This is particularly true for the development of surgical technology, where the relevant scientific fields are surgery (medicine) and engineering (electrical engineering, mechanical engineering, computer science, etc.). Furthermore, the scientific field of human factors is important to ensure that a surgical technology is indeed functional, process-oriented, effective, efficient as well as user- and patient-oriented. Working in such trans- and inter-disciplinary teams can be challenging due to different working cultures. The intention of this paper is to propose an innovative cooperative working culture for the interdisciplinary field of computer-assisted surgery (CAS) based on more than ten years of research on the one hand and the interdisciplinary literature on working cultures and various organizational theories on the other hand. In this paper, a retrospective analysis of more than ten years of research work in inter- and trans-disciplinary teams in the field of CAS will be performed. This analysis is based on the documented observations of the authors, the study reports, protocols, lab reports and published publications. To additionally evaluate the scientific experience in an interdisciplinary research team, a literature analysis regarding scientific literature on trans- and inter-disciplinarity was performed. Own research and literature analyses were compared. Both the literature and the scientific experience in an interdisciplinary research team show that consensus finding is not always easy. It is, however, important to start trans- and interdisciplinary projects with a shared mental model and common goals, which include communication and leadership issues within the project teams, i.e. clear and unambiguous information about the individual responsibilities and objectives to attain. This is made necessary due to differing leadership cultures within the cooperating disciplines. Another research outcome is the relevance of a cooperative learning culture throughout the complete duration of the project. Based on this cooperation, new ideas and projects were developed, i.e. a training concept for surgical trainers including technological competence for surgeons. An adapted innovative paradigm for a cooperating working culture in CAS is based on a shared mental model and common goals from the very beginning of a project. All actors in trans- and inter-disciplinary teams need to be interested in cooperation. This will lead to a common view on patients and technology models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.;

Reproduction of 20th century inter- to multi-decadel surface temperature variablilty in radiatively forced coupled climate models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 simulations of surface temperature were evaluated over the period 1902-1999 to assess their ability to reproduce historical temperature variability at 211 global locations. Model performance was evaluated using the running Mann Whitney-Z method, a technique th...

Tightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate

PubMed Central

Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Neelin, J. David; Shen, T. Janice; Zhai, Chengxing; Yue, Qing; Wang, Zhien; Huang, Lei; Choi, Yong-Sang; Stephens, Graeme L.; Yung, Yuk L.

2017-01-01

The change of global-mean precipitation under global warming and interannual variability is predominantly controlled by the change of atmospheric longwave radiative cooling. Here we show that tightening of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation coupled with a decrease in tropical high cloud fraction is key in modulating precipitation response to surface warming. The magnitude of high cloud shrinkage is a primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the changes of tropical-mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming (dP/dTs) for both interannual variability and global warming. Compared to observations, most Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models underestimate the rates of interannual tropical-mean dOLR/dTs and global-mean dP/dTs, consistent with the muted tropical high cloud shrinkage. We find that the five models that agree with the observation-based interannual dP/dTs all predict dP/dTs under global warming higher than the ensemble mean dP/dTs from the ∼20 models analysed in this study. PMID:28589940

Global water balances reconstructed by multi-model offline simulations of land surface models under GSWP3 (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, T.; KIM, H.; Ferguson, C. R.; Dirmeyer, P.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2013-12-01

As the climate warms, the frequency and severity of flood and drought events is projected to increase. Understanding the role that the land surface will play in reinforcing or diminishing these extremes at regional scales will become critical. In fact, the current development path from atmospheric (GCM) to coupled atmosphere-ocean (AOGCM) to fully-coupled dynamic earth system models (ESMs) has brought new awareness to the climate modeling community of the abundance of uncertainty in land surface parameterizations. One way to test the representativeness of a land surface scheme is to do so in off-line (uncoupled) mode with controlled, high quality meteorological forcing. When multiple land schemes are run in-parallel (with the same forcing data), an inter-comparison of their outputs can provide the basis for model confidence estimates and future model refinements. In 2003, the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 2 (GSWP2) provided the first global multi-model analysis of land surface state variables and fluxes. It spanned the decade of 1986-1995. While it was state-of-the art at the time, physical schemes have since been enhanced, a number of additional processes and components in the water-energy-eco-systems nexus can now be simulated, , and the availability of global, long-term observationally-based datasets that can be used for forcing and validating models has grown. Today, the data exists to support century-scale off-line experiments. The ongoing follow-on to GSWP2, named GSWP3, capitalizes on these new feasibilities and model functionalities. The project's cornerstone is its century-scale (1901-2010), 3-hourly, 0.5° meteorological forcing dataset that has been dynamically downscaled from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and bias-corrected using monthly Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data. However, GSWP3 also has an important long-term future climate component that spans the 21st century. Forcings for this period are produced from a select number of GCM-representative concentration pathways (RCPs) pairings. GSWP3 is specifically directed towards addressing the following key science questions: 1. How have interactions between eco-hydrological processes changed in the long term within a changing climate? 2. What is /will be the state of the water, energy, and carbon balances over land in the 20th and 21st centuries and what are the implications of the anticipated changes for human society in terms of freshwater resources, food productivity, and biodiversity? 3. How do the state-of-the-art land surface modeling systems perform and how can they be improved? In this presentation, we present preliminary results relevant to science question two, including: revised best-estimate global hydrological cycles for the retrospective period, inter-comparisons of modeled terrestrial water storage in large river basins and satellite remote-sensing estimates from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and the impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes during the 20th century on the long-term trend of water availability and scarcity.

Basin Characterisation by Means of Joint Inversion of Electromagnetic Geophysical Data, Borehole Data and Multivariate Statistical Methods: The Loop Head Peninsula, Western Ireland, Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campanya, J. L.; Ogaya, X.; Jones, A. G.; Rath, V.; McConnell, B.; Haughton, P.; Prada, M.

2016-12-01

The Science Foundation Ireland funded project IRECCSEM project (www.ireccsem.ie) aims to evaluate Ireland's potential for onshore carbon sequestration in saline aquifers by integrating new electromagnetic geophysical data with existing geophysical and geological data. One of the objectives of this component of IRECCSEM is to characterise the subsurface beneath the Loop Head Peninsula (part of Clare Basin, Co. Clare, Ireland), and identify major electrical resistivity structures that can guide an interpretation of the carbon sequestration potential of this area. During the summer of 2014, a magnetotelluric (MT) survey was carried out on the Loop Head Peninsula, and data from a total of 140 sites were acquired, including audio-magnetotelluric (AMT), and broadband magnetotelluric (BBMT). The dataset was used to generate shallow three-dimensional (3-D) electrical resistivity models constraining the subsurface to depths of up to 3.5 km. The three-dimensional (3-D) joint inversions were performed using three different types of electromagnetic data: MT impedance tensor (Z), geomagnetic transfer functions (T), and inter-station horizontal magnetic transfer-functions (H). The interpretation of the results was complemented with second-derivative models of the resulting electrical resistivity models, and a quantitative comparison with borehole data using multivariate statistical methods. Second-derivative models were used to define the main interfaces between the geoelectrical structures, facilitating superior comparison with geological and seismic results, and also reducing the influence of the colour scale when interpreting the results. Specific analysis was performed to compare the extant borehole data with the electrical resistivity model, identifying those structures that are better characterised by the resistivity model. Finally, the electrical resistivity model was also used to propagate some of the physical properties measured in the borehole, when a good relation was possible between the different types of data. The final results were compared with independent geological and geophysical data for a high-quality interpretation.

Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerreiro, Selma B.; Dawson, Richard J.; Kilsby, Chris; Lewis, Elizabeth; Ford, Alistair

2018-03-01

Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate risks due to their agglomeration of people, buildings and infrastructure. Differences in methodology, hazards considered, and climate models used limit the utility and comparability of climate studies on individual cities. Here we assess, for the first time, future changes in flood, heat-waves (HW), and drought impacts for all 571 European cities in the Urban Audit database using a consistent approach. To capture the full range of uncertainties in natural variability and climate models, we use all climate model runs from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the RCP8.5 emissions scenario to calculate Low, Medium and High Impact scenarios, which correspond to the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of each hazard for each city. We find that HW days increase across all cities, but especially in southern Europe, whilst the greatest HW temperature increases are expected in central European cities. For the low impact scenario, drought conditions intensify in southern European cities while river flooding worsens in northern European cities. However, the high impact scenario projects that most European cities will see increases in both drought and river flood risks. Over 100 cities are particularly vulnerable to two or more climate impacts. Moreover, the magnitude of impacts exceeds those previously reported highlighting the substantial challenge cities face to manage future climate risks.

Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aryal, Anil; Shrestha, Sangam; Babel, Mukand S.

2018-01-01

The objective of this paper is to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology in the Tamakoshi River Basin, located in the north-eastern part of Nepal. Multiple climate and hydrological models were used to simulate future climate conditions and discharge in the basin. The simulated results of future climate and river discharge were analysed for the quantification of sources of uncertainty using two-way and three-way ANOVA. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in the study area are projected to change in near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069) and far-future (2070-2099) periods. Maximum temperature is likely to rise by 1.75 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 3.52 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.10 °C under RCP 4.5 and by 3.73 °C under RCP 8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly, the precipitation in the study area is expected to change by - 2.15% under RCP 4.5 and - 2.44% under RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future discharge in the study area was projected using two hydrological models, viz. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). The SWAT model projected discharge is expected to change by small amount, whereas HEC-HMS model projected considerably lower discharge in future compared to the baseline period. The results also show that future climate variables and river hydrology contain uncertainty due to the choice of climate models, RCP scenarios, bias correction methods and hydrological models. During wet days, more uncertainty is observed due to the use of different climate models, whereas during dry days, the use of different hydrological models has a greater effect on uncertainty. Inter-comparison of the impacts of different climate models reveals that the REMO climate model shows higher uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and, consequently, in the prediction of future discharge and maximum probable flood.

Continental-scale temperature covariance in proxy reconstructions and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Büntgen, Ulf; Smerdon, Jason; Zorita, Eduardo; Krusic, Paul; Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Schneider, Lea; Esper, Jan

2017-04-01

Inter-continental temperature variability over the past millennium has been reported to be more coherent in climate model simulations than in multi-proxy-based reconstructions, a finding that undermines the representation of spatial variability in either of these approaches. We assess the covariance of summer temperatures among Northern Hemisphere continents by comparing tree-ring based temperature reconstructions with state-of-the-art climate model simulations over the past millennium. We find inter-continental temperature covariance to be larger in tree-ring-only reconstructions compared to those derived from multi-proxy networks, thus enhancing the agreement between proxy- and model-based spatial representations. A detailed comparison of simulated temperatures, however, reveals substantial spread among the models. Over the past millennium, inter-continental temperature correlations are driven by the cooling after major volcanic eruptions in 1257, 1452, 1601, and 1815. The coherence of these synchronizing events appears to be elevated in several climate simulations relative to their own covariance baselines and the proxy reconstructions, suggesting these models overestimate the amplitude of cooling in response to volcanic forcing at large spatial scales.

Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the presentmore » day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios.Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario.« less

Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design

DOE PAGES

Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles; ...

2017-02-08

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the presentmore » day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios.Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario.« less

The Inter-Life Project: Inter-Cultural Spaces for Young People to Use Creative Practices and Research to Assist with Life Changes and Transition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lally, Vic; Sclater, Madeleine

2012-01-01

The aim of the Inter-Life Project was to investigate the use of virtual worlds and creative practices to support the acquisition of transition skills for young people to enhance their management of important life events. In particular, the authors have been investigating the role of the Inter-Life virtual worlds in supporting the development of…

Benchmarking child and adolescent mental health organizations.

PubMed

Brann, Peter; Walter, Garry; Coombs, Tim

2011-04-01

This paper describes aspects of the child and adolescent benchmarking forums that were part of the National Mental Health Benchmarking Project (NMHBP). These forums enabled participating child and adolescent mental health organizations to benchmark themselves against each other, with a view to understanding variability in performance against a range of key performance indicators (KPIs). Six child and adolescent mental health organizations took part in the NMHBP. Representatives from these organizations attended eight benchmarking forums at which they documented their performance against relevant KPIs. They also undertook two special projects designed to help them understand the variation in performance on given KPIs. There was considerable inter-organization variability on many of the KPIs. Even within organizations, there was often substantial variability over time. The variability in indicator data raised many questions for participants. This challenged participants to better understand and describe their local processes, prompted them to collect additional data, and stimulated them to make organizational comparisons. These activities fed into a process of reflection about their performance. Benchmarking has the potential to illuminate intra- and inter-organizational performance in the child and adolescent context.

Characterisation of a reference site for quantifying uncertainties related to soil sampling.

PubMed

Barbizzi, Sabrina; de Zorzi, Paolo; Belli, Maria; Pati, Alessandra; Sansone, Umberto; Stellato, Luisa; Barbina, Maria; Deluisa, Andrea; Menegon, Sandro; Coletti, Valter

2004-01-01

The paper reports a methodology adopted to face problems related to quality assurance in soil sampling. The SOILSAMP project, funded by the Environmental Protection Agency of Italy (APAT), is aimed at (i) establishing protocols for soil sampling in different environments; (ii) assessing uncertainties associated with different soil sampling methods in order to select the "fit-for-purpose" method; (iii) qualifying, in term of trace elements spatial variability, a reference site for national and international inter-comparison exercises. Preliminary results and considerations are illustrated.

Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Analysis Fields Inter-Comparisons. Part 1: A GHRSST Multi-Product Ensemble (GMPE)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-02

Le Borgne, P., Poulter, D., Vazquez-Cuervo, J., Armstrong, E., Beggs, H., Llewellyn - Jones , D., Minnett, P., Merchant, C., Evans, R., 2009. The GODAE...Donlon i, Chelle Gentemann j, Robert Grumbine k, Shiro Ishizaki l, Eileen Maturi b, Richard W. Reynoldsm, Jonah Roberts- Jones a a Met Office, Exeter...high-resolution sea surface temperature pilot project. Oceanography 22, 34–45. Donlon, C.J., Martin, M., Stark, J.D., Roberts- Jones , J., Fiedler, E

Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario.

PubMed

Vives I Batlle, J; Beresford, N A; Beaugelin-Seiller, K; Bezhenar, R; Brown, J; Cheng, J-J; Ćujić, M; Dragović, S; Duffa, C; Fiévet, B; Hosseini, A; Jung, K T; Kamboj, S; Keum, D-K; Kryshev, A; LePoire, D; Maderich, V; Min, B-I; Periáñez, R; Sazykina, T; Suh, K-S; Yu, C; Wang, C; Heling, R

2016-03-01

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of (90)Sr, (131)I and (137)Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the aerosol vertical distribution in global aerosol models through comparison against CALIOP measurements: AeroCom phase II results: AEROSOL PROFILES IN AEROCOM II GCM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koffi, Brigitte; Schulz, Michael; Bréon, François-Marie

2016-06-27

The ability of eleven models in simulating the aerosol vertical distribution from regional to global scales, as part of the second phase of the AeroCom model inter-comparison initiative (AeroCom II) is assessed and compared to results of the first phase. The evaluation is performed using a global monthly gridded dataset of aerosol extinction profiles built on purpose from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) Layer Product 3.01. Results over 12 sub-continental regions show that five models improved whereas three degraded in reproducing the Zα 0-6 km mean extinction height diagnostic, which is computed over the 0-6 km altitude rangemore » for each studied region and season. While the models’ performance remains highly variable, it has generally improved in terms of inter-regional diversity and seasonality. The biases in Zα 0-6 km have notably decreased in the U.S. and European industrial and downwind maritime regions, whereas the timing of the Zα 0-6 km peak season has improved for all but two models. However, most of the models now show a Zα 0-6 km underestimation over land, notably in the dust and biomass burning regions in Asia and Africa. At global scale, the AeroCom II models better reproduce the Zα 0-6 km latitudinal variability over ocean than over land. Hypotheses for the (changes in the) the performance of the individual models and for the inter-model diversity are discussed. We also provide an analysis of the CALIOP limitations and uncertainties that can contribute to the differences between the simulations and observations.« less

Predictability of current and future multi-river discharges: Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Blue Nile, and Murray-Darling rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, Jun

2007-12-01

Determining river discharge is of critical importance to many societies as they struggle with fresh water supply and risk of flooding. In Bangladesh, floods occur almost every year but with sufficient irregularity to have adverse social and economical consequences. Important goals are to predict the discharge to be used for the optimization of agricultural practices, disaster mitigation and water resource management. The aim of this study is to determine the predictability of river discharge in a number of major rivers on time scale varying from weeks to a century. We investigated predictability considering relationship between SST and discharge. Next, we consider IPCC model projections of river discharge while the models are statistically adjusted against observed discharges. In this study, we consider five rivers, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, the Yangtze, the Blue Nile, and the Murray-Darling Rivers. On seasonal time scales, statistically significant correlations are found between mean monthly equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the summer Ganges discharge with lead times of 2-3 months due to oscillations of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. In addition, there are strong correlations in the southwest and northeast Pacific. These, too, appear to be tied to the ENSO cycle. The Brahmaputra discharge, on the other hand, shows somewhat weaker relationships with tropical SST. Strong lagged correlations relationships are found with SST in the Bay of Bengal but these are the result of very warm SSTs and exceptional Brahmaputra discharge during the summer of 1998. When this year is removed from the time series, relationships weaken everywhere except in the northwestern Pacific for the June discharge and in areas of the central Pacific straddling the equator for the July discharge. The relationships are relative strong, but they are persistent from month to month and suggest that two different and sequential factors influence Brahmaputra river flow. Second goal is to project the behavior of future river discharge forced by the increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols from natural and anthropogenic sources. Three more rivers, the Yangtze, Blue Nile, and Murray-Darling rivers are considered. It is meaningful to people living within the watershed, which would experience flooding or drought in the next 100-years. The original precipitation output from the third phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) project has large inter-model variability, which limits the ability to quantify the regional precipitation or runoff trends. With a basic statistical Quantile-to-Quantile (Q-Q) technique, a mapping index was built to link each modeled precipitation averaged over river catchment and observational discharge measured close to the mouth. Using the climatological annual cycle to choose the "good" models, the observational river discharges are well reproduced from the 20th century run (20C3M) model results. Furthermore, with the same indices, the future 21st century river discharge of the Yangtze, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Blue Nile are simulated under different SRES scenarios. The Murray-Darling River basin does not have the similar seasonal cycle of discharge with modeled precipitations. So we choose to build the link between satellite imaged and modeled precipitations and use it to simulate the future precipitation. The Yangtze, Ganges, Brahmaputra River mean wet season discharges are projected to increase up to 15-25% at the end of the 21st century under the most abundant GHGs scenarios (SRESA1B and SRESA2). The risks of flooding also reach to a high level throughout the time. Inter-model deviations increase dramatically under all scenarios except for the fixed-2000 level concentration (COMMIT). With large uncertainty, the Blue Nile River discharge and Murray-Darling River basin annual precipitation do not suggest a sign of change on multi-model mean.

Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

2018-01-01

Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

Probabilities of radiation-induced inter- and intrachromosomal exchanges and their dependence on the DNA content of the chromosome

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, H.; Yang, T. C. (Principal Investigator)

2001-01-01

A biophysical model has been developed that is based on the assumptions that an interphase chromosome occupies a spherical territory and that chromosome exchanges are formed by the misrejoining of two DNA double-strand breaks induced within a defined interaction distance. The model is used to explain the relative frequencies of inter- and intrachromosomal exchanges and the relationship between radiation-induced aberrations in individual chromosomes and the DNA content of the chromosome. Although this simple model predicts a higher ratio of inter- to intrachromosomal exchanges for low-LET radiation than for high-LET radiation, as has been suggested by others, we argue that the comparison of the prediction of the model with experimental results is not straightforward. With the model, we also show that the probability of the formation of interchromosomal exchanges is proportional to the "surface area" of the chromosome domain plus a correction term. The correction term is small if the interaction distance is less than 1 microm for both low- and high-LET radiations.

From Local to EXtreme Environments (FLEXE): Promoting Earth Systems Science Literacy Through Student Inquiry and Real Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goehring, E. C.; Carlsen, W.; Larsen, J.; Simms, E.; Smith, M.

2007-12-01

From Local to EXtreme Environments (FLEXE) is an innovative new project of the GLOBE Program that involves middle and high school students in systematic, facilitated analyses and comparisons of real environmental data. Through FLEXE, students collect and analyze data from various sources, including the multi-year GLOBE database, deep-sea scientific research projects, and direct measurements of the local environment collected by students using GLOBE sampling protocols. Initial FLEXE materials and training have focused on student understanding of energy transfer through components of the Earth system, including a comparison of how local environmental conditions differ from those found at deep-sea hydrothermal vent communities. While the importance of data acquisition, accuracy and replication is emphasized, FLEXE is also uniquely structured to deepen students' understanding of multiple aspects of the process and nature of science, including written communication of results and on-line peer review. Analyses of data are facilitated through structured, web-based interactions and culminating activities with at-sea scientists through an online forum. The project benefits from the involvement of a professional evaluator, and as the model is tested and refined, it may serve as a template for the inclusion of additional "extreme" earth systems. FLEXE is a partnership of the international GLOBE web- based education program and the NSF Ridge 2000 mid-ocean ridge and hydrothermal vent research program, and includes the expertise of the Center for Science and the Schools at Penn State University. International collaborators also include the InterRidge and ChEss international research programs.

Bursts of Vertex Activation and Epidemics in Evolving Networks

PubMed Central

Rocha, Luis E. C.; Blondel, Vincent D.

2013-01-01

The dynamic nature of contact patterns creates diverse temporal structures. In particular, empirical studies have shown that contact patterns follow heterogeneous inter-event time intervals, meaning that periods of high activity are followed by long periods of inactivity. To investigate the impact of these heterogeneities in the spread of infection from a theoretical perspective, we propose a stochastic model to generate temporal networks where vertices make instantaneous contacts following heterogeneous inter-event intervals, and may leave and enter the system. We study how these properties affect the prevalence of an infection and estimate , the number of secondary infections of an infectious individual in a completely susceptible population, by modeling simulated infections (SI and SIR) that co-evolve with the network structure. We find that heterogeneous contact patterns cause earlier and larger epidemics in the SIR model in comparison to homogeneous scenarios for a vast range of parameter values, while smaller epidemics may happen in some combinations of parameters. In the case of SI and heterogeneous patterns, the epidemics develop faster in the earlier stages followed by a slowdown in the asymptotic limit. For increasing vertex turnover rates, heterogeneous patterns generally cause higher prevalence in comparison to homogeneous scenarios with the same average inter-event interval. We find that is generally higher for heterogeneous patterns, except for sufficiently large infection duration and transmission probability. PMID:23555211

Interpreting OCO-2 Constrained CO2 Surface Flux Estimates Through the Lens of Atmospheric Transport Uncertainty.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuh, A. E.; Jacobson, A. R.; Basu, S.; Weir, B.; Baker, D. F.; Bowman, K. W.; Chevallier, F.; Crowell, S.; Deng, F.; Denning, S.; Feng, L.; Liu, J.

2017-12-01

The orbiting carbon observatory (OCO-2) was launched in July 2014 and has collected three years of column mean CO2 (XCO2) data. The OCO-2 model inter-comparison project (MIP) was formed to provide a means of analysis of results from many different atmospheric inversion modeling systems. Certain facets of the inversion systems, such as observations and fossil fuel CO2 fluxes were standardized to remove first order sources of difference between the systems. Nevertheless, large variations amongst the flux results from the systems still exist. In this presentation, we explore one dimension of this uncertainty, the impact of different atmospheric transport fields, i.e. wind speeds and directions. Early results illustrate a large systematic difference between two classes of atmospheric transport, arising from winds in the parent GEOS-DAS (NASA-GMAO) and ERA-Interim (ECMWF) data assimilation models. We explore these differences and their effect on inversion-based estimates of surface CO2 flux by using a combination of simplified inversion techniques as well as the full OCO-2 MIP suite of CO2 flux estimates.

The Ridge 2000 Program: Promoting Earth Systems Science Literacy Through Science Education Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simms, E.; Goehring, E.; Larsen, J.; Kusek, K.

2007-12-01

Sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Ridge 2000 (R2K) is a mid-ocean ridge and hydrothermal vent research program with a history of successful education and public outreach (EPO) programs and products. This presentation will share general science and education partnership strategies and best practices employed by the R2K program, with a particular emphasis on the innovative R2K project From Local to EXtreme Environments (FLEXE). As a new project of the international NSF and NASA sponsored GLOBE earth science education program, FLEXE involves middle and high school students in structured, guided analyses and comparisons of real environmental data. The science and education partnership model employed by FLEXE relies on experienced education coordinators within the R2K and international InterRidge and ChEss science research programs, who directly solicit and facilitate the involvement of an interdisciplinary community of scientists in the project based on their needs and interests. Concurrently, the model also relies on the GLOBE program to facilitate awareness and access to a large, established network of international educators who are interested in the process of science and interacting with the scientific community. The predominantly web-based interfaces that serve to effectively link together the FLEXE science and education communities have been developed by the Center for Science and the Schools at Penn State University, and are based on researched educational pedagogy, tools and techniques. The FLEXE partnership model will be discussed in the context of both broad and specific considerations of audience needs, scientist and educator recruitment, and the costs and benefits for those involved in the project.

A structural comparison of 'real' and 'model' calmodulin clarified allosteric interactions regulating domain motion.

PubMed

Shimoyama, Hiromitsu

2018-05-07

Calmodulin (CaM) is a multifunctional calcium-binding protein, which regulates various biochemical processes. CaM acts via structural changes and complex forming with its target enzymes. CaM has two globular domains (N-lobe and C-lobe) connected by a long linker region. Upon calcium binding, the N-lobe and C-lobe undergo local conformational changes, after that, entire CaM wraps the target enzyme through a large conformational change. However, the regulation mechanism, such as allosteric interactions regulating the conformational changes, is still unclear. In order to clarify the allosteric interactions, in this study, experimentally obtained 'real' structures are compared to 'model' structures lacking the allosteric interactions. As the allosteric interactions would be absent in calcium-free CaM (apo-CaM), allostery-eliminated calcium-bound CaM (holo-CaM) models were constructed by combining the apo-CaM's linker and the holo-CaM's N- and C-lobe. Before the comparison, the 'real' and 'model' structures were clustered and cluster-cluster relationship was determined by a principal component analysis. The structures were compared based on the relationship, then, a distance map and a contact probability analysis clarified that the inter-domain motion is regulated by several groups of inter-domain contacting residue pairs. The analyses suggested that these residues cause inter-domain translation and rotation, and as a consequence, the motion encourage structural diversity. The resultant diversity would contribute to the functional versatility of CaM.

An inter-comparison of PM10 source apportionment using PCA and PMF receptor models in three European sites.

PubMed

Cesari, Daniela; Amato, F; Pandolfi, M; Alastuey, A; Querol, X; Contini, D

2016-08-01

Source apportionment of aerosol is an important approach to investigate aerosol formation and transformation processes as well as to assess appropriate mitigation strategies and to investigate causes of non-compliance with air quality standards (Directive 2008/50/CE). Receptor models (RMs) based on chemical composition of aerosol measured at specific sites are a useful, and widely used, tool to perform source apportionment. However, an analysis of available studies in the scientific literature reveals heterogeneities in the approaches used, in terms of "working variables" such as the number of samples in the dataset and the number of chemical species used as well as in the modeling tools used. In this work, an inter-comparison of PM10 source apportionment results obtained at three European measurement sites is presented, using two receptor models: principal component analysis coupled with multi-linear regression analysis (PCA-MLRA) and positive matrix factorization (PMF). The inter-comparison focuses on source identification, quantification of source contribution to PM10, robustness of the results, and how these are influenced by the number of chemical species available in the datasets. Results show very similar component/factor profiles identified by PCA and PMF, with some discrepancies in the number of factors. The PMF model appears to be more suitable to separate secondary sulfate and secondary nitrate with respect to PCA at least in the datasets analyzed. Further, some difficulties have been observed with PCA in separating industrial and heavy oil combustion contributions. Commonly at all sites, the crustal contributions found with PCA were larger than those found with PMF, and the secondary inorganic aerosol contributions found by PCA were lower than those found by PMF. Site-dependent differences were also observed for traffic and marine contributions. The inter-comparison of source apportionment performed on complete datasets (using the full range of available chemical species) and incomplete datasets (with reduced number of chemical species) allowed to investigate the sensitivity of source apportionment (SA) results to the working variables used in the RMs. Results show that, at both sites, the profiles and the contributions of the different sources calculated with PMF are comparable within the estimated uncertainties indicating a good stability and robustness of PMF results. In contrast, PCA outputs are more sensitive to the chemical species present in the datasets. In PCA, the crustal contributions are higher in the incomplete datasets and the traffic contributions are significantly lower for incomplete datasets.

Comparison of radial 4D Flow-MRI with perivascular ultrasound to quantify blood flow in the abdomen and introduction of a porcine model of pre-hepatic portal hypertension.

PubMed

Frydrychowicz, A; Roldan-Alzate, A; Winslow, E; Consigny, D; Campo, C A; Motosugi, U; Johnson, K M; Wieben, O; Reeder, S B

2017-12-01

Objectives of this study were to compare radial time-resolved phase contrast magnetic resonance imaging (4D Flow-MRI) with perivascular ultrasound (pvUS) and to explore a porcine model of acute pre-hepatic portal hypertension (PHTN). Abdominal 4D Flow-MRI and pvUS in portal and splenic vein, hepatic and both renal arteries were performed in 13 pigs of approximately 60 kg. In six pigs, measurements were repeated after partial portal vein (PV) ligature. Inter- and intra-reader comparisons and statistical analysis including Bland-Altman (BA) comparison, paired Student's t tests and linear regression were performed. PvUS and 4D Flow-MRI measurements agreed well; flow before partial PV ligature was 322 ± 30 ml/min in pvUS and 297 ± 27 ml/min in MRI (p = 0.294), and average BA difference was 25 ml/min [-322; 372]. Inter- and intra-reader results differed very little, revealed excellent correlation (R 2  = 0.98 and 0.99, respectively) and resulted in BA differences of -5 ml/min [-161; 150] and -2 ml/min [-28; 25], respectively. After PV ligature, PV flow decreased from 356 ± 50 to 298 ± 61 ml/min (p = 0.02), and hepatic arterial flow increased from 277 ± 36 to 331 ± 65 ml/min (p = n.s.). The successful in vivo comparison of radial 4D Flow-MRI to perivascular ultrasound revealed good agreement of abdominal blood flow although with considerable spread of results. A model of pre-hepatic PHTN was successfully introduced and acute responses monitored. • Radial 4D Flow-MRI in the abdomen was successfully compared to perivascular ultrasound. • Inter- and intra-reader testing demonstrated excellent reproducibility of upper abdominal 4D Flow-MRI. • A porcine model of acute pre-hepatic portal hypertension was successfully introduced. • 4D Flow-MRI successfully monitored acute changes in a model of portal hypertension.

Pixel-Wise-Inter/Intra-Channel Color and Luminance Uniformity Corrections for Multi-Channel Projection Displays

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-11

Journal Article 3. DATES COVERED (From – To) Jan 2015 – Dec 2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE PIXEL-WISE INTER/INTRA-CHANNEL COLOR & LUMINANCE UNIFORMITY...Conference Dayton, Ohio – 28-29 June 2016 14. ABSTRACT Inter- and intra-channel color and luminance are generally non-uniform in multi-channel...projection display systems. Several methods have been proposed to correct for both inter- and intra-channel color and luminance variation in multi-channel

Spatial and temporal variability of the Aridity Index in Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Politi, Nadia; Kapsomenakis, John

2013-01-01

The objective of this paper is to study the spatial and temporal variability of the Aridity Index (AI) in Greece, per decade, during the 50-year period (1951-2000). Besides, the projected changes in ensemble mean AI between the period 1961-1990 (reference period) and the periods 2021-2050 (near future) and 2071-2100 (far future) along with the inter-model standard deviations were presented, based on the simulation results, derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs), within the ENSEMBLE European Project. The projection of the future climate was done under SRES A1B. The climatic data used, concern monthly precipitation totals and air temperature from 28 meteorological stations (22 stations from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and 6 stations from neighboring countries, taken from the Monthly Climatic Data for the World). The estimation of the AI was carried out based on the potential evapotranspiration (PET) defined by Thornthwaite (1948). The data processing was done by the application of the statistical package R-project and the Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The results of the analysis showed that, within the examined period (1951-2000), a progressive shift from the "humid" class, which characterized the wider area of Greece, towards the "sub-humid" and "semi-arid" classes appeared in the eastern Crete Island, the Cyclades complex, the Evia and Attica, that is mainly the eastern Greece. The most significant change appears during the period 1991-2000. The future projections at the end of twentieth century, using ensemble mean simulations from 8 RCMs, show that drier conditions are expected to establish in regions of Greece (Attica, eastern continental Greece, Cyclades, Dodecanese, eastern Crete Island and northern Aegean). The inter-model standard deviation over these regions ranges from 0.02 to 0.05 against high values (0.09-0.15) illustrated in western mountainous continental Greece, during 2021-2050. Higher values of inter-model standard deviation appear in the 2071-2100 ranging from 0.02 to 0.10 reaching even 0.50 over mountainous regions of the country.

Analysis of the variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Waheed; Leung, Wai-Nang; Hannachi, Abdel

2017-09-01

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is a dominant feature of extratropical climate and its variability is associated with the large-scale changes in the surface climate of midlatitudes. Variability of this jet is analysed in a set of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) over the North Atlantic region. The CMIP5 simulations for the 20th century climate (Historical) are compared with the ERA40 reanalysis data. The jet latitude index, wind speed and jet persistence are analysed in order to evaluate 11 CMIP5 GCMs and to compare them with those from CMIP3 integrations. The phase of mean seasonal cycle of jet latitude and wind speed from historical runs of CMIP5 GCMs are comparable to ERA40. The wind speed mean seasonal cycle by CMIP5 GCMs is overestimated in winter months. A positive (negative) jet latitude anomaly in historical simulations relative to ERA40 is observed in summer (winter). The ensemble mean of jet latitude biases in historical simulations of CMIP3 and CMIP5 with respect to ERA40 are -2.43° and -1.79° respectively. Thus indicating improvements in CMIP5 in comparison to the CMIP3 GCMs. The comparison of historical and future simulations of CMIP5 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period 2076-2099, shows positive anomalies in the jet latitude implying a poleward shifted jet. The results from the analysed models offer no specific improvements in simulating the trimodality of the eddy-driven jet.

Automated three-dimensional quantification of myocardial perfusion and brain SPECT.

PubMed

Slomka, P J; Radau, P; Hurwitz, G A; Dey, D

2001-01-01

To allow automated and objective reading of nuclear medicine tomography, we have developed a set of tools for clinical analysis of myocardial perfusion tomography (PERFIT) and Brain SPECT/PET (BRASS). We exploit algorithms for image registration and use three-dimensional (3D) "normal models" for individual patient comparisons to composite datasets on a "voxel-by-voxel basis" in order to automatically determine the statistically significant abnormalities. A multistage, 3D iterative inter-subject registration of patient images to normal templates is applied, including automated masking of the external activity before final fit. In separate projects, the software has been applied to the analysis of myocardial perfusion SPECT, as well as brain SPECT and PET data. Automatic reading was consistent with visual analysis; it can be applied to the whole spectrum of clinical images, and aid physicians in the daily interpretation of tomographic nuclear medicine images.

Uncertainties in Projecting Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impacts on Heavy Precipitation over Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby

This study investigates the North Atlantic atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall over western Europe in the present and future climate from the multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Overall, CMIP5 captures the seasonal and spatial variations of historical landfalling AR days, with the large inter-model variability strongly correlated with the inter-model spread of historical jet position. Under RCP 8.5, AR frequency is projected to increase a few times by the end of this century. While thermodynamics plays a dominate role in the future increase of ARs, wind changes associated with the midlatitude jet shifts alsomore » significantly contribute to AR changes, resulting in dipole change patterns in all seasons. In the North Atlantic, the model projected jet shifts are strongly correlated with the simulated historical jet position. As models exhibit predominantly equatorward biases in the historical jet position, the large poleward jet shifts reduce AR days south of the historical mean jet position through the dynamical connections between the jet positions and AR days. Using the observed historical jet position as an emergent constraint, dynamical effects further increase AR days in the future above the large increases due to thermodynamical effects. In the future, both total and extreme precipitation induced by AR contribute more to the seasonal mean and extreme precipitation compared to present primarily because of the increase in AR frequency. While AR precipitation intensity generally increases more relative to the increase in integrated vapor transport, AR extreme precipitation intensity increases much less.« less

Biases in simulation of the rice phenology models when applied in warmer climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.; Li, T.; Yang, X.; Simelton, E.

2015-12-01

The current model inter-comparison studies highlight the difference in projections between crop models when they are applied to warmer climates, but these studies do not provide results on how the accuracy of the models would change in these projections because the adequate observations under largely diverse growing season temperature (GST) are often unavailable. Here, we investigate the potential changes in the accuracy of rice phenology models when these models were applied to a significantly warmer climate. We collected phenology data from 775 trials with 19 cultivars in 5 Asian countries (China, India, Philippines, Bangladesh and Thailand). Each cultivar encompasses the phenology observations under diverse GST regimes. For a given rice cultivar in different trials, the GST difference reaches 2.2 to 8.2°C, which allows us to calibrate the models under lower GST and validate under higher GST (i.e., warmer climates). Four common phenology models representing major algorithms on simulations of rice phenology, and three model calibration experiments were conducted. The results suggest that the bilinear and beta models resulted in gradually increasing phenology bias (Figure) and double yield bias per percent increase in phenology bias, whereas the growing-degree-day (GDD) and exponential models maintained a comparatively constant bias when applied in warmer climates (Figure). Moreover, the bias of phenology estimated by the bilinear and beta models did not reduce with increase in GST when all data were used to calibrate models. These suggest that variations in phenology bias are primarily attributed to intrinsic properties of the respective phenology model rather than on the calibration dataset. Therefore we conclude that using the GDD and exponential models has more chances of predicting rice phenology correctly and thus, production under warmer climates, and result in effective agricultural strategic adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.

Inter-comparison of network measurements of non-methane organic compounds with model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Sheng-Po; Su, Yuan-Chang; Chiu, Ching-Jui; Lin, Ching-Ho; Chang, Julius S.; Chang, Chih-Chung; Wang, Jia-Lin

2015-12-01

Ambient levels of total non-methane organic carbons (NMOCs) at air quality stations (AQSs, called AQS NMOCs) are compared with the summed concentrations of 56 NMHCs obtained from the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (called total PAMS). For mutual validation of the two networks, the total PAMS were compared with the AQS NMOCs at four sites on the island of Taiwan for the period 2007-2012. The inter-comparison of total PAMS and AQS NMOCs has been discussed previously, which reported that the total PAMS accounted for approximately 30% of the AQS NMOCs on average (Chen et al., 2014b). In this study, both the observed total PAMS and AQS NMOCs were further compared with the emissions and model simulations for mutual validation. A three-dimensional Eulerian air quality model was used to simulate total PAMS and total VOCs, which were then inter-compared with the observed total PAMS and AQS NMOCs, respectively. We found closely agreeing results between the observed and simulated total PAMS, affirming that the treatment of meteorology and VOC emissions in the model was sufficiently robust. Further, although the modeled VOC data agreed with the AQS NMOC observations for the sites in urban settings, a significant discrepancy existed for the industrial sites, particularly at the concentration spikes. Such a discrepancy was presumably attributed to high emissions of OVOCs from industrial complexes compounded by the lower sensitivity of AQS measurements for OVOCs compared with hydrocarbons. Consequently, using AQS NMOCs to represent ambient VOC levels should be limited to environments where the amounts of OVOCs are relatively small relative to total VOCs.

Tropical forest response to elevated CO2: Model-experiment integration at the AmazonFACE site.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frankenberg, C.; Berry, J. A.; Guanter, L.; Joiner, J.

2014-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere's response to current and future elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of the C cycle, climate and ecosystem functioning. In particular, the sensitivity of tropical rainforest ecosystems to eCO­2 is largely unknown even though the importance of tropical forests for biodiversity, carbon storage and regional and global climate feedbacks is unambiguously recognized. The AmazonFACE (Free-Air Carbon Enrichment) project will be the first ecosystem scale eCO2 experiment undertaken in the tropics, as well as the first to be undertaken in a mature forest. AmazonFACE provides the opportunity to integrate ecosystem modeling with experimental observations right from the beginning of the experiment, harboring a two-way exchange, i.e. models provide hypotheses to be tested, and observations deliver the crucial data to test and improve ecosystem models. We present preliminary exploration of observed and expected process responses to eCO2 at the AmazonFACE site from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, highlighting opportunities and pitfalls for model integration of tropical FACE experiments. The preliminary analysis provides baseline hypotheses, which are to be further developed with a follow-up multiple model inter-comparison. The analysis builds on the recently undertaken FACE-MDS (Model-Data Synthesis) project, which was applied to two temperate FACE experiments and exceeds the traditional focus on comparing modeled end-target output. The approach has proven successful in identifying well (and less well) represented processes in models, which are separated for six clusters also here; (1) Carbon fluxes, (2) Carbon pools, (3) Energy balance, (4) Hydrology, (5) Nutrient cycling, and (6) Population dynamics. Simulation performance of observed conditions at the AmazonFACE site (a.o. from Manaus K34 eddy flux tower) will highlight process-based model deficiencies, and aid the separation of uncertainties arising from general ecosystem responses and those responses related to eCO2.

Tropical forest response to elevated CO2: Model-experiment integration at the AmazonFACE site.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischer, K.

2015-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere's response to current and future elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of the C cycle, climate and ecosystem functioning. In particular, the sensitivity of tropical rainforest ecosystems to eCO­2 is largely unknown even though the importance of tropical forests for biodiversity, carbon storage and regional and global climate feedbacks is unambiguously recognized. The AmazonFACE (Free-Air Carbon Enrichment) project will be the first ecosystem scale eCO2 experiment undertaken in the tropics, as well as the first to be undertaken in a mature forest. AmazonFACE provides the opportunity to integrate ecosystem modeling with experimental observations right from the beginning of the experiment, harboring a two-way exchange, i.e. models provide hypotheses to be tested, and observations deliver the crucial data to test and improve ecosystem models. We present preliminary exploration of observed and expected process responses to eCO2 at the AmazonFACE site from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, highlighting opportunities and pitfalls for model integration of tropical FACE experiments. The preliminary analysis provides baseline hypotheses, which are to be further developed with a follow-up multiple model inter-comparison. The analysis builds on the recently undertaken FACE-MDS (Model-Data Synthesis) project, which was applied to two temperate FACE experiments and exceeds the traditional focus on comparing modeled end-target output. The approach has proven successful in identifying well (and less well) represented processes in models, which are separated for six clusters also here; (1) Carbon fluxes, (2) Carbon pools, (3) Energy balance, (4) Hydrology, (5) Nutrient cycling, and (6) Population dynamics. Simulation performance of observed conditions at the AmazonFACE site (a.o. from Manaus K34 eddy flux tower) will highlight process-based model deficiencies, and aid the separation of uncertainties arising from general ecosystem responses and those responses related to eCO2.

Inter-Laboratory Comparison for Calibration of Relative Humidity Devices Among Accredited Laboratories in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, F.; Khairuddin, S.; Othman, H.

2017-01-01

An inter-laboratory comparison in relative humidity measurements among accredited laboratories has been coordinated by the National Metrology Institute of Malaysia. It was carried out to determine the performance of the participating laboratories. The objective of the comparison was to acknowledge the participating laboratories competencies and to verify the level of accuracies declared in their scope of accreditation, in accordance with the MS ISO/IEC 17025 accreditation. The measurement parameter involved was relative humidity for the range of 30-90 %rh at a nominal temperature of 50°C. Eight accredited laboratories participated in the inter-laboratory comparison. Two units of artifacts have been circulated among the participants as the transfer standards.

The Southern Ocean as a constraint to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks

DOE PAGES

Kessler, A.; Tjiputra, J.

2016-04-07

Earth system model (ESM) simulations exhibit large biases compares to observation-based estimates of the present ocean CO 2 sink. The inter-model spread in projections increases nearly 2-fold by the end of the 21st century and therefore contributes significantly to the uncertainty of future climate projections. In this study, the Southern Ocean (SO) is shown to be one of the hot-spot regions for future uptake of anthropogenic CO 2, characterized by both the solubility pump and biologically mediated carbon drawdown in the spring and summer. Here, we show, by analyzing a suite of fully interactive ESMs simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparisonmore » Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the 21st century under the high-CO 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, that the SO is the only region where the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate continues to increase toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, our study discovers a strong inter-model link between the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean and the projected global cumulated uptake over the 21st century. This strong correlation suggests that models with low (high) carbon uptake rate in the contemporary SO tend to simulate low (high) uptake rate in the future. None the less, our analysis also shows that none of the models fully capture the observed biophysical mechanisms governing the CO 2 fluxes in the SO. The inter-model spread for the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean is attributed to the variations in the simulated seasonal cycle of surface pCO 2. Two groups of model behavior have been identified. The first one simulates anomalously strong SO carbon uptake, generally due to both too strong a net primary production and too low a surface pCO 2 in December–January. The second group simulates an opposite CO 2 flux seasonal phase, which is driven mainly by the bias in the sea surface temperature variability. Furthermore, we show that these biases are persistent throughout the 21st century, which highlights the urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring system in the Southern Ocean to better constrain key processes represented in current model systems.« less

The Southern Ocean as a constraint to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kessler, A.; Tjiputra, J.

Earth system model (ESM) simulations exhibit large biases compares to observation-based estimates of the present ocean CO 2 sink. The inter-model spread in projections increases nearly 2-fold by the end of the 21st century and therefore contributes significantly to the uncertainty of future climate projections. In this study, the Southern Ocean (SO) is shown to be one of the hot-spot regions for future uptake of anthropogenic CO 2, characterized by both the solubility pump and biologically mediated carbon drawdown in the spring and summer. Here, we show, by analyzing a suite of fully interactive ESMs simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparisonmore » Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the 21st century under the high-CO 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, that the SO is the only region where the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate continues to increase toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, our study discovers a strong inter-model link between the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean and the projected global cumulated uptake over the 21st century. This strong correlation suggests that models with low (high) carbon uptake rate in the contemporary SO tend to simulate low (high) uptake rate in the future. None the less, our analysis also shows that none of the models fully capture the observed biophysical mechanisms governing the CO 2 fluxes in the SO. The inter-model spread for the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean is attributed to the variations in the simulated seasonal cycle of surface pCO 2. Two groups of model behavior have been identified. The first one simulates anomalously strong SO carbon uptake, generally due to both too strong a net primary production and too low a surface pCO 2 in December–January. The second group simulates an opposite CO 2 flux seasonal phase, which is driven mainly by the bias in the sea surface temperature variability. Furthermore, we show that these biases are persistent throughout the 21st century, which highlights the urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring system in the Southern Ocean to better constrain key processes represented in current model systems.« less

Are Creative Comparisons Developed by Prospective Chemistry Teachers Evidence of Their Conceptual Understanding? The Case of Inter- and Intramolecular Forces

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sendur, Gulten

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to determine prospective chemistry teachers' creative comparisons about the basic concepts of inter- and intramolecular forces, and to uncover the relationship between these creative comparisons and prospective teachers' conceptual understanding. Based on a phenomenological research method, this study was conducted with…

Inter-laboratory comparison of xenobiotic clearance rates determined using cryopreserved trout hepatocytes for improving bioaccumulation predictions

EPA Science Inventory

Hepatic biotransformation is an important determinant of chemical bioaccumulation in fish. Consequently, bioaccumulation models can be improved using estimates of chemical biotransformation rates. Cryopreserved trout hepatocytes have been used to measure the clearance rates of so...

Inter-laboratory comparison of clearance rates of xenobiotics by cryopreserved trout hepatocytes for the prediction of bioaccumulation potential

EPA Science Inventory

Hepatic biotransformation is an important determinant of chemical bioaccumulation in fish. Consequently, improvements to bioaccumulation models can be made using estimates of chemical biotransformation rates. Cryopreserved trout hepatocytes have previously been used to measure ...

Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harp, D. R.; Atchley, A. L.; Painter, S. L.; Coon, E. T.; Wilson, C. J.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Rowland, J. C.

2016-02-01

The effects of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections are studied using a three-phase subsurface thermal hydrology model and calibration-constrained uncertainty analysis. The null-space Monte Carlo method is used to identify soil hydrothermal parameter combinations that are consistent with borehole temperature measurements at the study site, the Barrow Environmental Observatory. Each parameter combination is then used in a forward projection of permafrost conditions for the 21st century (from calendar year 2006 to 2100) using atmospheric forcings from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration trajectory. A 100-year projection allows for the evaluation of predictive uncertainty (due to soil property (parametric) uncertainty) and the inter-annual climate variability due to year to year differences in CESM climate forcings. After calibrating to measured borehole temperature data at this well-characterized site, soil property uncertainties are still significant and result in significant predictive uncertainties in projected active layer thickness and annual thaw depth-duration even with a specified future climate. Inter-annual climate variability in projected soil moisture content and Stefan number are small. A volume- and time-integrated Stefan number decreases significantly, indicating a shift in subsurface energy utilization in the future climate (latent heat of phase change becomes more important than heat conduction). Out of 10 soil parameters, ALT, annual thaw depth-duration, and Stefan number are highly dependent on mineral soil porosity, while annual mean liquid saturation of the active layer is highly dependent on the mineral soil residual saturation and moderately dependent on peat residual saturation. By comparing the ensemble statistics to the spread of projected permafrost metrics using different climate models, we quantify the relative magnitude of soil property uncertainty to another source of permafrost uncertainty, structural climate model uncertainty. We show that the effect of calibration-constrained uncertainty in soil properties, although significant, is less than that produced by structural climate model uncertainty for this location.

Evaluating characteristics of dry spell changes in Lake Urmia Basin using an ensemble CMIP5 GCM models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazel, Nasim; Berndtsson, Ronny; Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia; Klove, Bjorn; Madani, Kaveh

2015-04-01

Drought is a natural phenomenon that can cause significant environmental, ecological, and socio-economic losses in water scarce regions. Studies of drought under climate change are essential for water resources planning and management. Dry spells and number of consecutive days with precipitation below a certain threshold can be used to identify the severity of hydrological drought. In this study, we analyzed the projected changes of number of dry days in two future periods, 2011-2040 and 2071-2100, for both seasonal and annual time scales in the Lake Urmia Basin. The lake and its wetlands, located in northwestern Iran, have invaluable environmental, social, and economic importance for the region. The lake level has been shrinking dramatically since 1995 and now the water volume is less than 30% of its original. Moreover, frequent dry spells have struck the region and effected the region's water resources and lake ecosystem as in other parts of Iran too. Analyzing future drought and dry spells characteristics in the region is crucial for sustainable water management and lake restoration plans. We used daily projected precipitation from 20 climate models used in the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5) driven by three representative paths, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and, RCP8.5. The model outputs were statistically downscaled and validated based on the historical observation period 1980-2010. We defined days with precipitation less than 1 mm as dry days for both observation periods and model projections. The model validation showed that all models underestimated the number of dry days. An ensemble based on the validation results consisting of five models which were in best agreement with observations was used to assess the changes in number of future dry days in Lake Urmia Basin. The entire ensemble showed increase in number of dry days for all seasons. The projected changes in winter and spring were larger than for summer and autumn. All models projected dryer winter and spring periods in the near and far future periods. The ensemble mean for future annual dry days increased by 6.5 % to 7.3% for the different climate change related emission and concentration pathway RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and, RCP8.5.

The Mean State and Inter-annual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, T.; Song, F.

2014-12-01

The climatology and inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air-sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The inter-annual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest 8 models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO-WPAC teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the easterly anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC make the TEIO warmer in CGCMs by reducing the climatological monsoon westerlies and decreasing the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomalies and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the inter-annual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs. Key words: CMIP5, CGCMs, air-sea coupling, AGCMs, inter-annual EASM pattern, ENSO, IO-WPAC teleconnection

The Physcomitrella patens gene atlas project: large-scale RNA-seq based expression data.

PubMed

Perroud, Pierre-François; Haas, Fabian B; Hiss, Manuel; Ullrich, Kristian K; Alboresi, Alessandro; Amirebrahimi, Mojgan; Barry, Kerrie; Bassi, Roberto; Bonhomme, Sandrine; Chen, Haodong; Coates, Juliet C; Fujita, Tomomichi; Guyon-Debast, Anouchka; Lang, Daniel; Lin, Junyan; Lipzen, Anna; Nogué, Fabien; Oliver, Melvin J; Ponce de León, Inés; Quatrano, Ralph S; Rameau, Catherine; Reiss, Bernd; Reski, Ralf; Ricca, Mariana; Saidi, Younousse; Sun, Ning; Szövényi, Péter; Sreedasyam, Avinash; Grimwood, Jane; Stacey, Gary; Schmutz, Jeremy; Rensing, Stefan A

2018-07-01

High-throughput RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) has recently become the method of choice to define and analyze transcriptomes. For the model moss Physcomitrella patens, although this method has been used to help analyze specific perturbations, no overall reference dataset has yet been established. In the framework of the Gene Atlas project, the Joint Genome Institute selected P. patens as a flagship genome, opening the way to generate the first comprehensive transcriptome dataset for this moss. The first round of sequencing described here is composed of 99 independent libraries spanning 34 different developmental stages and conditions. Upon dataset quality control and processing through read mapping, 28 509 of the 34 361 v3.3 gene models (83%) were detected to be expressed across the samples. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were calculated across the dataset to permit perturbation comparisons between conditions. The analysis of the three most distinct and abundant P. patens growth stages - protonema, gametophore and sporophyte - allowed us to define both general transcriptional patterns and stage-specific transcripts. As an example of variation of physico-chemical growth conditions, we detail here the impact of ammonium supplementation under standard growth conditions on the protonemal transcriptome. Finally, the cooperative nature of this project allowed us to analyze inter-laboratory variation, as 13 different laboratories around the world provided samples. We compare differences in the replication of experiments in a single laboratory and between different laboratories. © 2018 The Authors The Plant Journal © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Water vapour inter-comparison effort in the framework of the hydrological cycle in the mediterranean experiment - special observation period (hymex-sop1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summa, Donato; Di Girolamo, Paolo; Flamant, Cyrille; De Rosa, Benedetto; Cacciani, Marco; Stelitano, Dario

2018-04-01

Accurate measurements of the vertical profiles of water vapour are of paramount importance for most key areas of atmospheric sciences. A comprehensive inter-comparison between different remote sensing and in-situ sensors has been carried out in the frame work of the first Special Observing Period of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment for the purpose of obtaining accurate error estimates for these sensors. The inter-comparison involves a ground-based Raman lidar (BASIL), an airborne DIAL (LEANDRE2), a microwave radiometer, radiosondes and aircraft in-situ sensors.

Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, Paul; Nielsen, Jens; Calvin, Katherine V.

Although Africa’s share in the global energy system is only small today, the ongoing population growth and economic development imply that this can change significantly. In this paper, we discuss long-term energy developments in Africa using the results of the LIMITS model inter-comparison study. The analysis focusses on the position of Africa in the wider global energy system and climate mitigation. The results show a considerable spread in model outcomes. Without specific climate policy, Africa’s share in global CO 2 emissions is projected to increase from around 1-4% today to 3-23% by 2100. In all models, emissions only start tomore » become really significant on a global scale after 2050. Furthermore, by 2030 still around 50% of total household energy use is supplied through traditional bio-energy, in contrast to existing ambitions from international organisations to provide access to modern energy for all. After 2050, the energy mix is projected to converge towards a global average energy mix with high shares of fossil fuels and electricity use. Finally, although the continent is now a large net exporter of oil and gas, towards 2050 it most likely needs most of its resources to meet its rapidly growing domestic demand. With respect to climate policy, the rapid expansion of the industrial and the power sector also create large mitigation potential and thereby the possibility to align the investment peak in the energy system with climate policy and potential revenues from international carbon trading.« less

Strategies toward Cooperation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Donald A.

1979-01-01

The Quad-Cities Graduate Study Center in Rock Island, Illinois, a voluntary, publicly funded, academic consortium, is described. It was incorporated as an experimental project to determine if pooling institutional resources were academically, financially, and administratively possible. It is now a model of inter-institutional cooperation providing…

ThaleMine: A Warehouse for Arabidopsis Data Integration and Discovery.

PubMed

Krishnakumar, Vivek; Contrino, Sergio; Cheng, Chia-Yi; Belyaeva, Irina; Ferlanti, Erik S; Miller, Jason R; Vaughn, Matthew W; Micklem, Gos; Town, Christopher D; Chan, Agnes P

2017-01-01

ThaleMine (https://apps.araport.org/thalemine/) is a comprehensive data warehouse that integrates a wide array of genomic information of the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. The data collection currently includes the latest structural and functional annotation from the Araport11 update, the Col-0 genome sequence, RNA-seq and array expression, co-expression, protein interactions, homologs, pathways, publications, alleles, germplasm and phenotypes. The data are collected from a wide variety of public resources. Users can browse gene-specific data through Gene Report pages, identify and create gene lists based on experiments or indexed keywords, and run GO enrichment analysis to investigate the biological significance of selected gene sets. Developed by the Arabidopsis Information Portal project (Araport, https://www.araport.org/), ThaleMine uses the InterMine software framework, which builds well-structured data, and provides powerful data query and analysis functionality. The warehoused data can be accessed by users via graphical interfaces, as well as programmatically via web-services. Here we describe recent developments in ThaleMine including new features and extensions, and discuss future improvements. InterMine has been broadly adopted by the model organism research community including nematode, rat, mouse, zebrafish, budding yeast, the modENCODE project, as well as being used for human data. ThaleMine is the first InterMine developed for a plant model. As additional new plant InterMines are developed by the legume and other plant research communities, the potential of cross-organism integrative data analysis will be further enabled. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

In vitro to in vivo extrapolation of hepatic metabolism in fish: An inter-laboratory comparison of in vitro methods - presentation

EPA Science Inventory

Chemical biotransformation represents the largest source of uncertainty in chemical bioaccumulation assessments. Model-based estimates of chemical bioconcentration in fish may be greatly improved by including biotransformation rates, as measured in vitro. Substrate depletion assa...

INTER LABORATORY COMBAT HELMET BLUNT IMPACT TEST METHOD COMPARISON

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-03-26

HELMET BLUNT IMPACT TEST METHOD COMPARISON by Tony J. Kayhart Charles A. Hewitt and Jonathan Cyganik March 2018 Final...Report March 2016 – August 2017 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited U.S. Army Natick Soldier Research ...INTER-LABORATORY COMBAT HELMET BLUNT IMPACT TEST METHOD COMPARISON 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR

Inter-model variability in hydrological extremes projections for Amazonian sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lázaro de Siqueira Júnior, José; Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme; Tomasella, Javier

2014-05-01

Irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process drive uncertainties in Climate Change projections. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, mainly when associated to extreme events, and difficult the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. The use of different climate model's projections allows to aboard uncertainties issues allowing the use of multiple runs to explore a wide range of potential impacts and its implications for potential vulnerabilities. Statistical approaches for analyses of extreme values are usually based on stationarity assumptions. However, nonstationarity is relevant at the time scales considered for extreme value analyses and could have great implications in dynamic complex systems, mainly under climate change transformations. Because this, it is required to consider the nonstationarity in the statistical distribution parameters. We carried out a study of the dispersion in hydrological extremes projections using climate change projections from several climate models to feed the Distributed Hydrological Model of the National Institute for Spatial Research, MHD-INPE, applied in Amazonian sub-basins. This model is a large-scale hydrological model that uses a TopModel approach to solve runoff generation processes at the grid-cell scale. MHD-INPE model was calibrated for 1970-1990 using observed meteorological data and comparing observed and simulated discharges by using several performance coeficients. Hydrological Model integrations were performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Because climate models simulate the variability of the climate system in statistical terms rather than reproduce the historical behavior of climate variables, the performances of the model's runs during the historical period, when feed with climate model data, were tested using descriptors of the Flow Duration Curves. The analyses of projected extreme values were carried out considering the nonstationarity of the GEV distribution parameters and compared with extremes events in present time. Results show inter-model variability in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. Such dispersion implies different degrees of socio-economic impacts associated to extreme hydrological events. Despite the no existence of one optimum result, this variability allows the analyses of adaptation strategies and its potential vulnerabilities.

Skills of General Circulation and Earth System Models in reproducing streamflow to the ocean: the case of Congo river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santini, M.; Caporaso, L.

2017-12-01

Although the importance of water resources in the context of climate change, it is still difficult to correctly simulate the freshwater cycle over the land via General Circulation and Earth System Models (GCMs and ESMs). Existing efforts from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were mainly devoted to the validation of atmospheric variables like temperature and precipitation, with low attention to discharge.Here we investigate the present-day performances of GCMs and ESMs participating to CMIP5 in simulating the discharge of the river Congo to the sea thanks to: i) the long-term availability of discharge data for the Kinshasa hydrological station representative of more than 95% of the water flowing in the whole catchment; and ii) the River's still low influence by human intervention, which enables comparison with the (mostly) natural streamflow simulated within CMIP5.Our findings suggest how most of models appear overestimating the streamflow in terms of seasonal cycle, especially in the late winter and spring, while overestimation and variability across models are lower in late summer. Weighted ensemble means are also calculated, based on simulations' performances given by several metrics, showing some improvements of results.Although simulated inter-monthly and inter-annual percent anomalies do not appear significantly different from those in observed data, when translated into well consolidated indicators of drought attributes (frequency, magnitude, timing, duration), usually adopted for more immediate communication to stakeholders and decision makers, such anomalies can be misleading.These inconsistencies produce incorrect assessments towards water management planning and infrastructures (e.g. dams or irrigated areas), especially if models are used instead of measurements, as in case of ungauged basins or for basins with insufficient data, as well as when relying on models for future estimates without a preliminary quantification of model biases.

Comparison of modelled runoff with observed proglacial discharge across the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustafa, S.; Rennermalm, A.; van As, D.; Overeem, I.; Tedesco, M.; Mote, T. L.; Koenig, L.; Smith, L. C.; Hagedorn, B.; Sletten, R. S.; Mikkelsen, A. B.; Hasholt, B.; Hall, D. K.; Fettweis, X.; Pitcher, L. H.; Hubbard, A.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet surface ablation now dominates its total mass loss contributions to sea-level rise. Despite the increasing importance of Greenland's sea-level contribution, a quantitative inter-comparison between modeled and measured melt, runoff and discharge across multiple drainage basins is conspicuously lacking. Here we investigate the accuracy of model discharge estimates from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR v3.5.2) regional climate model by comparison with in situ proglacial river discharge measurements at three West Greenland drainage basins - North River (Thule), Watson River (Kangerlussuaq), and Naujat Kuat River (Nuuk). At each target catchment, we: 1) determine optimal drainage basin delineations; 2) assess primary drivers of melt; 3) evaluate MAR at daily, 5-, 10- and 20-day time scales; and 4) identify potential sources for model-observation discrepancies. Our results reveal that MAR resolves daily discharge variability poorly in the Nuuk and Thule basins (r2 = 0.4-0.5), but does capture variability over 5-, 10-, and 20-day means (r2 > 0.7). Model agreement with river flow data, though, is reduced during periods of peak discharge, particularly for the exceptional melt and discharge events of July 2012. Daily discharge is best captured by MAR across the Watson River basin, whilst there is lower correspondence between modeled and observed discharge at the Thule and Naujat Kuat River basins. We link the main source of model error to an underestimation of cloud cover, overestimation of surface albedo, and apparent warm bias in near-surface air temperatures. For future inter-comparison, we recommend using observations from catchments that have a self-contained and well-defined drainage area and an accurate discharge record over variable years coincident with a reliable automatic weather station record. Our study highlights the importance of improving MAR modeled surface albedo, cloud cover representation, and delay functions to reduce model error and to improve prediction of Greenland's future runoff contribution to global sea level rise.

GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, David

2002-01-01

Status, progress and plans will be given for current GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) WG2 (Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems) projects, including: (a) the Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project, (b) the Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project (Phase 2), and (c) the developing Hurricane Nora extended outflow model case study project. Past results will be summarized and plans for the upcoming year described. Issues and strategies will be discussed. Prospects for developing improved cloud parameterizations derived from results of GCSS WG2 projects will be assessed. Plans for NASA's CRYSTAL-FACE (Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment) potential opportunities for use of those data for WG2 model simulations (future projects) will be briefly described.

Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich; Shiogama, Hideo; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Scinocca, John F.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

Systematic impact assessment on inter-basin water transfer projects of the Hanjiang River Basin in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yanlai; Guo, Shenglian; Hong, Xingjun; Chang, Fi-John

2017-10-01

China's inter-basin water transfer projects have gained increasing attention in recent years. This study proposes an intelligent water allocation methodology for establishing optimal inter-basin water allocation schemes and assessing the impacts of water transfer projects on water-demanding sectors in the Hanjiang River Basin of China. We first analyze water demands for water allocation purpose, and then search optimal water allocation strategies for maximizing the water supply to water-demanding sectors and mitigating the negative impacts by using the Standard Genetic Algorithm (SGA) and Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (AGA), respectively. Lastly, the performance indexes of the water supply system are evaluated under different scenarios of inter-basin water transfer projects. The results indicate that: the AGA with adaptive crossover and mutation operators could increase the average annual water transfer from the Hanjiang River by 0.79 billion m3 (8.8%), the average annual water transfer from the Changjiang River by 0.18 billion m3 (6.5%), and the average annual hydropower generation by 0.49 billion kW h (5.4%) as well as reduce the average annual unmet water demand by 0.40 billion m3 (9.7%), as compared with the those of the SGA. We demonstrate that the proposed intelligent water allocation schemes can significantly mitigate the negative impacts of inter-basin water transfer projects on the reliability, vulnerability and resilience of water supply to the demanding sectors in water-supplying basins. This study has a direct bearing on more intelligent and effectual water allocation management under various scenarios of inter-basin water transfer projects.

INTER-SPECIES COMPARISONS AND SAR MODELLING OF ESTROGENICITY USING RAINBOW TROUT ER BINDING DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA has been mandated to screen industrial chemicals and pesticides for potential endocrine activity. Structure-activity relationships (SARs) to predict receptor binding are being developed as a first step to rank and prioritize chemicals for testing in bioassays. First ...

Radiological and micro-computed tomography analysis of the bone at dental implants inserted 2, 3 and 4 mm apart in a minipig model with platform switching incorporated.

PubMed

Elian, Nicolas; Bloom, Mitchell; Dard, Michel; Cho, Sang-Choon; Trushkowsky, Richard D; Tarnow, Dennis

2014-02-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of inter-implant distance on interproximal bone utilizing platform switching. Analysis of interproximal bone usually depends on traditional two-dimensional radiographic assessment. Although there has been increased reliability of current techniques, there has been an inability to track bone level changes over time and in three dimensions. Micro-CT has provided three-dimensional imaging that can be used in conjunction with traditional two-dimensional radiographic techniques. This study was performed on 24 female minipigs. Twelve animals received three implants with an inter-implant distance of 3 mm on one side of the mandible and another three implants on the contra-lateral side, where the implants were placed 2 mm apart creating a split mouth design. Twelve other animals received three implants with an inter-implant distance of 3 mm on one side of the mandible and another three implants on the contra-lateral side, where the implants were placed 4 mm apart creating a split mouth design too. The quantitative evaluation was performed comparatively on radiographs taken at t 0 (immediately after implantation) and at t 8 weeks (after termination). The samples were scanned by micro-computed tomography (μCT) to quantify the first bone to implant contact (fBIC) and bone volume/total volume (BV/TV). Mixed model regressions using the nonparametric Brunner-Langer method were used to determine the effect of inter-implant distance on the measured outcomes. The change in bone level was determined using radiography and its mean was 0.05 mm for an inter-implant distance of 3 and 0.00 mm for a 2 mm distance (P = 0.7268). The mean of this outcome was 0.18 mm for the 3 mm and for 4 mm inter-implant distance (P = 0.9500). Micro-computed tomography showed that the fBIC was always located above the reference, 0.27 and 0.20 mm for the comparison of 2-3 mm (P = 0.4622) and 0.49 and 0.34 mm for the inter-implant distance of 3 and 4 mm (P = 0.1699). BV/TV inside the defined parallelepipedic masks reached 82.38% for the 2 mm inter-implant distance and 85.00% for 3 mm, P = 0.8432. For the comparison of the 3-4 mm inter-implant distance, the means were 84.69% and 84.38%, respectively, P = 0.8401. Non-inferiority tests for the smaller inter-implant distances for both comparisons showed similar differences and similar tolerance ranges. The effect of a smaller interproximal distances between implants on bone level, fBIC and BV/TV assessed by two convergent investigation methods, radiology and μCT, was similar to that of larger distances. Implants can potentially be placed 2 mm apart instead of 3 mm and 3 mm apart instead of 4 mm when platform switching is utilized. Further research with a conventional platform is warranted. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Promoting Technology-Based Collaboration among Pre-Service Music Educators: An Inter-University Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthews, Wendy; Johnson, Daniel C.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this inter-university project was to explore pre-service teachers' perceptions of collaboration and use of online technology. Twenty-two undergraduate music education majors from two separate universities participated in an eleven-week collaborative project to develop, teach, and self-assess general music lesson plans via a variety…

The potential impact of an inter-basin water transfer project on nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorous) and chlorophyll a of the receiving water system.

PubMed

Zeng, Qinghui; Qin, Lihuan; Li, Xuyong

2015-12-01

Any inter-basin water transfer project would cause complex physical, chemical, hydrological and biological changes to the receiving system. The primary channel of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project has a total length of 1267 km. There is a significant difference between the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the originating and receiving drinking water conservation districts. To predict the impacts of this long-distance inter-basin water transfer project on the N&P (nitrogen and phosphorus) concentrations and eutrophication risk of the receiving system, an environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) model was applied. The calibrated model accurately reproduced the hydrodynamic, water quality and the entire algal bloom process. Thirteen scenarios were defined to fully understand the N&P and chlorophyll a (Chl a) variation among different hydrological years, different quantity and timing of water transfer, and different inflows of N&P concentrations. The results showed the following: (a) The water transfer project would not result in a substantial difference to the trophic state of the Miyun reservoir in any of the hydrological years. (b) The area affected by the water transfer did not involve the entire reservoir. To minimize the impact of water transfer on N&P nutrients and Chl a, water should be transferred as uniform as possible with small discharge. (c) The variation in Chl a was more sensitive to an increase in P than an increase in N for the transferred water. The increased percentages of the average Chl a concentration when water was transferred in the spring, summer and autumn were 7.76%, 16.67% and 16.45%. Our findings imply that special attention should be given to prevent P increment of the transferred water from May to October to prevent algal blooms. The results provide useful information for decision makers about the quantity and timing of water transfers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

PubMed Central

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Müller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay; Neumann, Kathleen; Piontek, Franziska; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin; Stehfest, Elke; Yang, Hong; Jones, James W.

2014-01-01

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. PMID:24344314

Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

2014-01-01

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

ACIX: Atmospheric Correction Inter-comparison Exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doxani, Georgia; Gascon, Ferran; Vermote, Éric; Roger, Jean-Claude

2017-04-01

The free and open data access policy to Sentinel-2 (S-2) and Landsat-8 (L-8) satellite imagery has stimulated the development of atmospheric correction (AC) processors for generating Bottom-of-Atmosphere (BOA) products. Several entities have started to generate (or plan to generate in the short term) BOA reflectance products at global scale for S-2 and L-8 missions. To this end, the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA are organizing an exercise on AC processors inter-comparison. The results of the exercise are expected to point out the strengths and weaknesses, as well as communalities and discrepancies of various AC processors, in order to suggest and define ways for their further improvement. In particular, 13 atmospheric processors from five different countries participate in ACIX with the aim to inter-compare their performance when applied to L-8 and S-2 data. A protocol describing the inter-comparison process and the test dataset, which is based on the AERONET sites, will be presented. The protocol has been defined according to what was agreed among the participants during the 1st ACIX workshop held in June 2016. It includes the comparison of aerosol optical thickness and water vapour products of the processors with the AERONET measurements. Moreover, concerning the surface reflectances, the protocol describes the inter-comparison among the processors, as well as the comparison with the MODIS surface reflectance and with a reference surface reflectance product. Such a reference product will be obtained using the AERONET characterization of the aerosol (size distribution and refractive indices) and an accurate radiative transfer code. The inter-comparison outcomes will be presented and discussed among the participants in the 2nd ACIX workshop, which will be held on 11-12 April 2017 (ESRIN/ESA). The proposed presentation is an opportunity for the user community to be informed for the first time about the ACIX results and conclusions.

21st Century Projections of High Streamflow Events in the UK and Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioffi, Francesco; Rosario Conticello, Federico; Lall, Upmanu; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Radiative effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to enhance the hydrological cycle leading to more frequent and intense floods. To explore if there will be an increased risk of river flooding in the future, 21st century projections under global warming scenarios of High Streamflow Events (HSEs) for UK and German rivers are carried out, using a model that statistically relates large-scale atmospheric predictors - 850 hPa Geopotential Height (GPH850) and Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) - to the occurrence of HSEs in one or simultaneously in several streamflow gauges. Here, HSE is defined as the streamflow exceeding the 99th percentile of daily flowrate time series measured at streamflow gauges. For the common period 1960-2012, historical data from 57 streamflow gauges in UK and 61 streamflow gauges in Germany, as well as, reanalysis data of GPH850 and IVT fields, bounded from 90W to 70E and from 20N to 80N are used. The link between GPH850 configurations and HSEs, and more precisely, identification of the GPH850 states potentially able to generate HSEs, is performed by a combined Kohonen Networks (Self Organized Map, SOM) and Event Syncronization approach. Complex network and modularity methods are used to cluster streamflow gauges that share common GPH850 configurations. Then a model based on a conditional Poisson distribution, in which the parameter of the Poisson distribution is assumed to be a nonlinear function of GPH850 and IVT, allows for the identification of GPH850 state and threshold of IVT beyond which there is the HSE highest probability. Using that model, projections of 21st century changes in frequency of HSEs occurrence in UK and Germany are estimated using the simulated fields of GPH850 and IVT from selected GCMs belonging to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the different GCMs, those are selected whose retrospective predictor fields have consistent statistics with the corresponding reanalysis data.

Building policy capacities: an interactive approach for linking knowledge to action in health promotion.

PubMed

Rütten, Alfred; Gelius, Peter

2014-09-01

This article outlines a theoretical framework for an interactive, research-driven approach to building policy capacities in health promotion. First, it illustrates how two important issues in the recent public health debate, capacity building and linking scientific knowledge to policy action, are connected to each other theoretically. It then introduces an international study on an interactive approach to capacity building in health promotion policy. The approach combines the ADEPT model of policy capacities with a co-operative planning process to foster the exchange of knowledge between policy-makers and researchers, thus improving intra- and inter-organizational capacities. A regional-level physical activity promotion project involving governmental and public-law institutions, NGOs and university researchers serves as a case study to illustrate the potential of the approach for capacity building. Analysis and comparison with a similar local-level project indicate that the approach provides an effective means of linking scientific knowledge to policy action and to planning concrete measures for capacity building in health promotion, but that it requires sufficiently long timelines and adequate resources to achieve adequate implementation and sustainability. © The Author (2013). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global Mean Temperature Timeseries Projections from GCMs: The Implications of Rebasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

Global climate models are assessed by comparison with observations through several benchmarks. One highlighted by the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is their ability to reproduce "general features of the global and annual mean surface temperature changes over the historical period" [1,2] and to simulate "a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend" [3]. These aspects of annual mean global mean temperature (GMT) change are presented as one feature demonstrating the relevance of these models for climate projections. Here we consider a formal interpretation of "general features" and discuss the implications of this approach to model assessment and intercomparison, for the interpretation of GCM projections. Following the IPCC, we interpret a major element of "general features" as being the slow timescale response to external forcings. (Shorter timescale behaviour such as the response to volcanic eruptions are also elements of "general features" but are not considered here.) Also following the IPCC, we consider only GMT anomalies. The models have absolute temperatures which range over about 3K so this means their timeseries (and the observations) are rebased. We show that rebasing in combination with general agreement, implies a separation of scales which limits the degree to which sub-global behaviour can feedback on the global response. It also implies a degree of linearity in the GMT slow timescale response. For each individual model these implications only apply over the range of absolute temperatures simulated by the model in historic simulations. Taken together, however, they imply consequences over a wider range of GMTs. [1] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Technical Summary: Stocker et al. 2013. [2] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Chapter 9 - "Evaluation of Climate Models": Flato et al. 2013. [3] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Summary for Policy Makers: IPCC, 2013.

Adapting regional watershed management to climate change in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf; Muerth, Markus; Schmid, Josef; Jobst, Andreas; Caya, Daniel; Gauvin St-Denis, Blaise; Chaumont, Diane; Velazquez, Juan-Alberto; Turcotte, Richard; Ricard, Simon

2013-04-01

The international research project QBic3 (Quebec-Bavarian Collaboration on Climate Change) aims at investigating the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology of regional scale catchments in Southern Quebec (Canada) and Bavaria (Germany). For this purpose, a hydro-meteorological modeling chain has been established, applying climatic forcing from both dynamical and statistical climate model data to an ensemble of hydrological models of varying complexity. The selection of input data, process descriptions and scenarios allows for the inter-comparison of the uncertainty ranges on selected runoff indicators; a methodology to display the relative importance of each source of uncertainty is developed and results for past runoff (1971-2000) and potential future changes (2041-2070) are obtained. Finally, the impact of hydrological changes on the operational management of dams, reservoirs and transfer systems is investigated and shown for the Bavarian case studies, namely the potential change in i) hydro-power production for the Upper Isar watershed and ii) low flow augmentation and water transfer rates at the Donau-Main transfer system in Central Franconia. Two overall findings will be presented and discussed in detail: a) the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows, is strongly affected by the choice of the hydrological model. It can be shown that an assessment of the changes in the hydrological cycle is best represented by a complex physically based hydrological model, computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) can give a significant level of trust for selected indicators. b) the major differences in the projected climate forcing stemming from the ensemble of dynamic climate models (GCM/RCM) versus the statistical-stochastical WETTREG2010 approach. While the dynamic ensemble reveals a moderate modification of the hydrological processes in the investigated catchments, the WETTREG2010 driven runs show a severe detraction for all water operations, mainly related to a strong decline in projected precipitation in all seasons (except winter).

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on the water table level of selected forested wetlands in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jie; Sun, Ge; Li, Wenhong; Zhang, Yu; Miao, Guofang; Noormets, Asko; McNulty, Steve G.; King, John S.; Kumar, Mukesh; Wang, Xuan

2017-12-01

The southeastern United States hosts extensive forested wetlands, providing ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, water quality improvement, groundwater recharge, and wildlife habitat. However, these wetland ecosystems are dependent on local climate and hydrology, and are therefore at risk due to climate and land use change. This study develops site-specific empirical hydrologic models for five forested wetlands with different characteristics by analyzing long-term observed meteorological and hydrological data. These wetlands represent typical cypress ponds/swamps, Carolina bays, pine flatwoods, drained pocosins, and natural bottomland hardwood ecosystems. The validated empirical models are then applied at each wetland to predict future water table changes using climate projections from 20 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We show that combined future changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration would significantly alter wetland hydrology including groundwater dynamics by the end of the 21st century. Compared to the historical period, all five wetlands are predicted to become drier over time. The mean water table depth is predicted to drop by 4 to 22 cm in response to the decrease in water availability (i.e., precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) by the year 2100. Among the five examined wetlands, the depressional wetland in hot and humid Florida appears to be most vulnerable to future climate change. This study provides quantitative information on the potential magnitude of wetland hydrological response to future climate change in typical forested wetlands in the southeastern US.

Community Intervention Model to Reduce Inappropriate Antibiotic Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alder, Stephen; Wuthrich, Amy; Haddadin, Bassam; Donnelly, Sharon; Hannah, Elizabeth Lyon; Stoddard, Greg; Benuzillo, Jose; Bateman, Kim; Samore, Matthew

2010-01-01

Background: The Inter-Mountain Project on Antibiotic Resistance and Therapy (IMPART) is an intervention that addresses emerging antimicrobial resistance and the reduction of unnecessary antimicrobial use. Purpose: This study assesses the design and implementation of the community intervention component of IMPART. Methods: The study was conducted…

Robust impact of coupled stratospheric ozone chemistry on the response of the Austral circulation to increased greenhouse gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiodo, G.; Polvani, L. M.

2016-12-01

Due to computational constraints, interactive stratospheric chemistry is commonly neglected in most GCMs participating in inter-comparison projects. The impact of this simplification on the modeled response to external forcings remains largely unexplored. In this work, we examine the impact of the stratospheric chemistry coupling on the SH circulation response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2. We accomplish this with a version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate (WACCM) model, which allows coupling and de-coupling stratospheric chemistry, without altering any other physical parameterization. We find that the chemistry coupling in WACCM significantly reduces (by about 20%) the response of both eddy-driven mid-latitude jet and the Hadley Cell strength, without altering the surface temperature response. This behavior is linked to the representation of stratospheric ozone, and its effects on the meridional temperature gradient at the extratropical tropopause. Our results imply that neglecting stratospheric ozone chemistry results in a potential overestimation of the circulation response to GHGs. Hence, stratospheric ozone chemistry produces a substantial negative feedback on the response of the atmospheric circulation to increased greenhouse gases.

On the equivalence of generalized least-squares approaches to the evaluation of measurement comparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koo, A.; Clare, J. F.

2012-06-01

Analysis of CIPM international comparisons is increasingly being carried out using a model-based approach that leads naturally to a generalized least-squares (GLS) solution. While this method offers the advantages of being easier to audit and having general applicability to any form of comparison protocol, there is a lack of consensus over aspects of its implementation. Two significant results are presented that show the equivalence of three differing approaches discussed by or applied in comparisons run by Consultative Committees of the CIPM. Both results depend on a mathematical condition equivalent to the requirement that any two artefacts in the comparison are linked through a sequence of measurements of overlapping pairs of artefacts. The first result is that a GLS estimator excluding all sources of error common to all measurements of a participant is equal to the GLS estimator incorporating all sources of error, including those associated with any bias in the standards or procedures of the measuring laboratory. The second result identifies the component of uncertainty in the estimate of bias that arises from possible systematic effects in the participants' measurement standards and procedures. The expression so obtained is a generalization of an expression previously published for a one-artefact comparison with no inter-participant correlations, to one for a comparison comprising any number of repeat measurements of multiple artefacts and allowing for inter-laboratory correlations.

Evaluation of Cirrus Cloud Simulations using ARM Data-Development of Case Study Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, David OC.; Demoz, Belay; Wang, Yansen; Lin, Ruei-Fong; Lare, Andrew; Mace, Jay; Poellot, Michael; Sassen, Kenneth; Brown, Philip

2002-01-01

Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are being increasingly used to develop parametric treatments of clouds and related processes for use in global climate models (GCMs). CRMs represent the integrated knowledge of the physical processes acting to determine cloud system lifecycle and are well matched to typical observational data in terms of physical parameters/measurables and scale-resolved physical processes. Thus, they are suitable for direct comparison to field observations for model validation and improvement. The goal of this project is to improve state-of-the-art CRMs used for studies of cirrus clouds and to establish a relative calibration with GCMs through comparisons among CRMs, single column model (SCM) versions of the GCMs, and observations. The objective is to compare and evaluate a variety of CRMs and SCMs, under the auspices of the GEWEX Cloud Systems Study (GCSS) Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2), using ARM data acquired at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. This poster will report on progress in developing a suitable WG2 case study data set based on the September 26, 1996 ARM IOP case - the Hurricane Nora outflow case. Progress is assessing cloud and other environmental conditions will be described. Results of preliminary simulations using a regional cloud system model (MM5) and a CRM will be discussed. Focal science questions for the model comparison are strongly based on results of the idealized GCSS WG2 cirrus cloud model comparison projects (Idealized Cirrus Cloud Model Comparison Project and Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project), which will also be briefly summarized.

PlanMine--a mineable resource of planarian biology and biodiversity.

PubMed

Brandl, Holger; Moon, HongKee; Vila-Farré, Miquel; Liu, Shang-Yun; Henry, Ian; Rink, Jochen C

2016-01-04

Planarian flatworms are in the midst of a renaissance as a model system for regeneration and stem cells. Besides two well-studied model species, hundreds of species exist worldwide that present a fascinating diversity of regenerative abilities, tissue turnover rates, reproductive strategies and other life history traits. PlanMine (http://planmine.mpi-cbg.de/) aims to accomplish two primary missions: First, to provide an easily accessible platform for sharing, comparing and value-added mining of planarian sequence data. Second, to catalyze the comparative analysis of the phenotypic diversity amongst planarian species. Currently, PlanMine houses transcriptomes independently assembled by our lab and community contributors. Detailed assembly/annotation statistics, a custom-developed BLAST viewer and easy export options enable comparisons at the contig and assembly level. Consistent annotation of all transcriptomes by an automated pipeline, the integration of published gene expression information and inter-relational query tools provide opportunities for mining planarian gene sequences and functions. For inter-species comparisons, we include transcriptomes of, so far, six planarian species, along with images, expert-curated information on their biology and pre-calculated cross-species sequence homologies. PlanMine is based on the popular InterMine system in order to make the rich biology of planarians accessible to the general life sciences research community. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Centipod WEC, Advanced Controls, Resultant LCOE

DOE Data Explorer

McCall, Alan

2016-02-15

Project resultant LCOE model after implementation of MPC controller. Contains AEP, CBS, model documentation, and LCOE content model. This is meant for comparison with this project's baseline LCOE model.

Interventions to delay institutionalization of frail older persons: design of a longitudinal study in the home care setting.

PubMed

De Almeida Mello, Johanna; Van Durme, Therese; Macq, Jean; Declercq, Anja

2012-08-06

Older people usually prefer staying at home rather than going into residential care. The Belgian National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance wishes to invest in home care by financing innovative projects that effectively help older people to stay at home longer. In this study protocol we describe the evaluation of 34 home care projects. These projects are clustered according to the type of their main intervention such as case management, night care, occupational therapy at home and psychological/psychosocial support. The main goal of this study is to identify which types of projects have the most effect in delaying institutionalization of frail older persons. This is a longitudinal intervention study based on a quasi-experimental design. Researchers use three comparison strategies to evaluate intervention--comparison among different types of projects, comparisons between older persons in the projects and older persons not benefiting from a project but who are still at home and between older persons in the projects and older persons who are already institutionalized. Projects are asked to include clients who are frail and at risk of institutionalization. In the study we use internationally validated instruments such as the interRAI Home Care instrument, the WHO-QOL-8 and the Zarit Burden Interview-12. These instruments are filled out at baseline, at exit from the project and 6 months after baseline. Additionally, caregivers have to do a follow-up every 6 months until exit from the project. Criteria to exit the cohort will be institutionalization longer than 3 months and death. The main analysis in the study consists of the calculation of incidence rates, cumulative incidence rates and hazard rates of definitive institutionalization through survival analyses for each type of project. This research will provide knowledge on the functional status of frail older persons who are still living at home. This is important information to identify determinants of risk for institutionalization. The identification of effective home care projects in delaying institutionalization will be useful to inform and empower home care providers, policy and related decision makers to manage and improve home care services.

A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carmichael, Matthew J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Heinemann, Malte; Kiehl, Jeffrey; LeGrande, Allegra; Loptson, Claire A.; Roberts, Chris D.; Sagoo, Navjit; Shields, Christine

2016-01-01

A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Combination of Alternative Models by Mutual Data Assimilation: Supermodeling With A Suite of Primitive Equation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duane, G. S.; Selten, F.

2016-12-01

Different models of climate and weather commonly give projections/predictions that differ widely in their details. While averaging of model outputs almost always improves results, nonlinearity implies that further improvement can be obtained from model interaction in run time, as has already been demonstrated with toy systems of ODEs and idealized quasigeostrophic models. In the supermodeling scheme, models effectively assimilate data from one another and partially synchronize with one another. Spread among models is manifest as a spread in possible inter-model connection coefficients, so that the models effectively "agree to disagree". Here, we construct a supermodel formed from variants of the SPEEDO model, a primitive-equation atmospheric model (SPEEDY) coupled to ocean and land. A suite of atmospheric models, coupled to the same ocean and land, is chosen to represent typical differences among climate models by varying model parameters. Connections are introduced between all pairs of corresponding independent variables at synoptic-scale intervals. Strengths of the inter-atmospheric connections can be considered to represent inverse inter-model observation error. Connection strengths are adapted based on an established procedure that extends the dynamical equations of a pair of synchronizing systems to synchronize parameters as well. The procedure is applied to synchronize the suite of SPEEDO models with another SPEEDO model regarded as "truth", adapting the inter-model connections along the way. The supermodel with trained connections gives marginally lower error in all fields than any weighted combination of the separate model outputs when used in "weather-prediction mode", i.e. with constant nudging to truth. Stronger results are obtained if a supermodel is used to predict the formation of coherent structures or the frequency of such. Partially synchronized SPEEDO models give a better representation of the blocked-zonal index cycle than does a weighted average of the constituent model outputs. We have thus shown that supermodeling and the synchronization-based procedure to adapt inter-model connections give results superior to output averaging not only with highly nonlinear toy systems, but with smaller nonlinearities as occur in climate models.

South American mega cities: Knowledge gaps and collaboration opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallardo, L.

2012-04-01

Urbanization and population concentration are outstanding phenomena in South America. About 83% of the 530 million South Americans live already in large coastal or near coastal cities (> 750 k inhabitants), many of which are heavily polluted. Curbing measures have been implemented on a relatively fast pace taking advantage of lessons learned elsewhere. However, as environmental objectives become more ambitious, considering for instance chronic health effects, impacts on ecosystems and agriculture, addressing secondary particles and climatic impacts, the need for cost-effective measures requires of more reliable and locally representative data. Such data include: emission fluxes (both natural and anthropogenic) and emission scenarios; characterization of vertical mixing; speciation and distribution of pollutants and precursors. In this presentation, we review the current situation in terms of atmospheric modeling, emission modeling, measuring and observations in a number of South American cities. Also, we describe low-cost actions oriented towards improving our understanding of: 1) vertical mixing by means of a modeling inter comparison exercise using data already collected in Santiago de Chile; 2) aerosol composition and speciation of volatile organic compounds by means of a coordinated sampling of filters and canisters at various locations highlighting the diversity of our cities. These actions were collectively convened by ca. 50 leading scientists and local policy makers during an international symposium held in Santiago in January 2012 (http://ossaf.cmm.uchile.cl/). This activity marked the closure of a five year project sponsored by the Inter American Institute on Global Change Research that tackled South American Emissions Megacities and Climate (SAEMC, CRN 2017). It was also a regional activity promoted and sponsored by the international Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution (iCACGP), and by the World Meteorological Organization, Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) Urban Research Meteorology and Environment (GURME).

The FOODBANCS project: Introduction and sinking fluxes of organic carbon, chlorophyll- a and phytodetritus on the western Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Craig R.; Mincks, Sarah; DeMaster, David J.

2008-11-01

The impact of the highly seasonal Antarctic primary production cycle on shelf benthic ecosystems remains poorly evaluated. Here we describe a times-series research project on the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) shelf designed to evaluate the seafloor deposition, and subsequent ecological and biogeochemical impacts, of the summer phytoplankton bloom along a transect crossing the Antarctic shelf near Anvers Island. During this project, entitled Food for Benthos on the Antarctic Continental Shelf (FOODBANCS), we deployed replicate sediment traps 150-170 m above the seafloor (total water-column depth of 590 m) on the central shelf from December 1999 to March 2001, recovering trap samples every 3-4 months. In addition, we used a seafloor time-lapse camera system, as well as video surveys conducted at 3-4 months intervals, to monitor the presence and accumulation of phytodetritus at the sediment-water interface. The fluxes of particulate organic carbon and chlorophyll- a into sediment traps (binned over 3-4 month intervals) showed patterns consistent with seasonal variability, with average summer fluxes during the first year exceeding winter fluxes by a factor of ˜2-3. However, inter-annual variability in summer fluxes was even greater than seasonal variability, with 4-10-fold differences in the flux of organic carbon and chlorophyll- a between the summer seasons of 1999-2000 and 2000-2001. Phytodetrital accumulation at the shelf floor also exhibited intense inter-annual variability, with no visible phytodetritus from essentially December 1999 to November 2000, followed by pulsed accumulation of 1-2 cm of phytodetritus over a ˜30,000 km 2 shelf area by March 2001. Comparisons with other studies suggest that the levels of inter-annual variability we observed are typical of the Antarctic shelf over decadal time scales. We conclude that fluxes of particulate organic carbon, chlorophyll- a and phytodetritus to WAP-shelf sediments vary intensely on seasonal to inter-annual time scales, yielding dramatic temporal variability in the flux of food for detritivores to the Antarctic shelf floor.

Investigation of the short argon arc with hot anode. II. Analytical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khrabry, A.; Kaganovich, I. D.; Nemchinsky, V.; Khodak, A.

2018-01-01

A short atmospheric pressure argon arc is studied numerically and analytically. In a short arc with an inter-electrode gap of several millimeters, non-equilibrium effects in plasma play an important role in operation of the arc. High anode temperature leads to electron emission and intensive radiation from its surface. A complete, self-consistent analytical model of the whole arc comprising of models for near-electrode regions, arc column, and a model of heat transfer in cylindrical electrodes was developed. The model predicts the width of non-equilibrium layers and arc column, voltages and plasma profiles in these regions, and heat and ion fluxes to the electrodes. Parametric studies of the arc have been performed for a range of the arc current densities, inter-electrode gap widths, and gas pressures. The model was validated against experimental data and verified by comparison with numerical solution. Good agreement between the analytical model and simulations and reasonable agreement with experimental data were obtained.

Investigation of the short argon arc with hot anode. II. Analytical model

DOE PAGES

Khrabry, A.; Kaganovich, I. D.; Nemchinsky, V.; ...

2018-01-22

A short atmospheric pressure argon arc is studied numerically and analytically. In a short arc with an inter-electrode gap of several millimeters, non-equilibrium effects in plasma play an important role in operation of the arc. High anode temperature leads to electron emission and intensive radiation from its surface. A complete, self-consistent analytical model of the whole arc comprising of models for near-electrode regions, arc column, and a model of heat transfer in cylindrical electrodes was developed. The model predicts the width of non-equilibrium layers and arc column, voltages and plasma profiles in these regions, and heat and ion fluxes tomore » the electrodes. Parametric studies of the arc have been performed for a range of the arc current densities, inter-electrode gap widths, and gas pressures. The model was validated against experimental data and verified by comparison with numerical solution. In conclusion, good agreement between the analytical model and simulations and reasonable agreement with experimental data were obtained.« less

Investigation of the short argon arc with hot anode. II. Analytical model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khrabry, A.; Kaganovich, I. D.; Nemchinsky, V.

A short atmospheric pressure argon arc is studied numerically and analytically. In a short arc with an inter-electrode gap of several millimeters, non-equilibrium effects in plasma play an important role in operation of the arc. High anode temperature leads to electron emission and intensive radiation from its surface. A complete, self-consistent analytical model of the whole arc comprising of models for near-electrode regions, arc column, and a model of heat transfer in cylindrical electrodes was developed. The model predicts the width of non-equilibrium layers and arc column, voltages and plasma profiles in these regions, and heat and ion fluxes tomore » the electrodes. Parametric studies of the arc have been performed for a range of the arc current densities, inter-electrode gap widths, and gas pressures. The model was validated against experimental data and verified by comparison with numerical solution. In conclusion, good agreement between the analytical model and simulations and reasonable agreement with experimental data were obtained.« less

Impact of intra- versus inter-annual snow depth variation on water relations and photosynthesis for two Great Basin Desert shrubs.

PubMed

Loik, Michael E; Griffith, Alden B; Alpert, Holly; Concilio, Amy L; Wade, Catherine E; Martinson, Sharon J

2015-06-01

Snowfall provides the majority of soil water in certain ecosystems of North America. We tested the hypothesis that snow depth variation affects soil water content, which in turn drives water potential (Ψ) and photosynthesis, over 10 years for two widespread shrubs of the western USA. Stem Ψ (Ψ stem) and photosynthetic gas exchange [stomatal conductance to water vapor (g s), and CO2 assimilation (A)] were measured in mid-June each year from 2004 to 2013 for Artemisia tridentata var. vaseyana (Asteraceae) and Purshia tridentata (Rosaceae). Snow fences were used to create increased or decreased snow depth plots. Snow depth on +snow plots was about twice that of ambient plots in most years, and 20 % lower on -snow plots, consistent with several down-scaled climate model projections. Maximal soil water content at 40- and 100-cm depths was correlated with February snow depth. For both species, multivariate ANOVA (MANOVA) showed that Ψ stem, g s, and A were significantly affected by intra-annual variation in snow depth. Within years, MANOVA showed that only A was significantly affected by spatial snow depth treatments for A. tridentata, and Ψ stem was significantly affected by snow depth for P. tridentata. Results show that stem water relations and photosynthetic gas exchange for these two cold desert shrub species in mid-June were more affected by inter-annual variation in snow depth by comparison to within-year spatial variation in snow depth. The results highlight the potential importance of changes in inter-annual variation in snowfall for future shrub photosynthesis in the western Great Basin Desert.

Robust changes in the socio-climate risk over CONUS by mid 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.; Batibeniz, F.; Alifa, M.; Pagán, B. R.; Bonds, B. W.; Pal, J. S.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Preston, B. L.

2017-12-01

Using high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes, we investigate impacts of climate change on natural and human systems across the CONUS. Climate projections are based a hybrid downscaling approach where a combination of regional and hydrological models are used to downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project to 4km horizontal grid spacing for 41 years in the historical period (1965-2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010-2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Should emissions continue to rise, climatic changes will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle over CONUS through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. Our results show robust changes in the occurrence of severe weather conditions and in the likelihood of ice, freezing rain and snowstorms that may have disruptive impact on large human population across the U.S. More summer like conditions will also drive increase in cooling demands and a net increase in the energy consumption over many regions. We further use an integrated vulnerability index that combines human exposure to different climate extremes (hot, cold, wet and dry) and changes in socioeconomic pathways (due to changes in population and income levels), to reveal that future exposure to potentially damaging climatic conditions will likely increase manifold for population living in major urban centers in California, Texas, Florida, Michigan, Illinois and Northeast. With the current trajectory of emissions, these results warrant that a large human population across the U.S. may feel the impacts of climate change within its lifespan.

"Development of an interactive crop growth web service architecture to review and forecast agricultural sustainability"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seamon, E.; Gessler, P. E.; Flathers, E.; Walden, V. P.

2014-12-01

As climate change and weather variability raise issues regarding agricultural production, agricultural sustainability has become an increasingly important component for farmland management (Fisher, 2005, Akinci, 2013). Yet with changes in soil quality, agricultural practices, weather, topography, land use, and hydrology - accurately modeling such agricultural outcomes has proven difficult (Gassman et al, 2007, Williams et al, 1995). This study examined agricultural sustainability and soil health over a heterogeneous multi-watershed area within the Inland Pacific Northwest of the United States (IPNW) - as part of a five year, USDA funded effort to explore the sustainability of cereal production systems (Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture - award #2011-68002-30191). In particular, crop growth and soil erosion were simulated across a spectrum of variables and time periods - using the CropSyst crop growth model (Stockle et al, 2002) and the Water Erosion Protection Project Model (WEPP - Flanagan and Livingston, 1995), respectively. A preliminary range of historical scenarios were run, using a high-resolution, 4km gridded dataset of surface meteorological variables from 1979-2010 (Abatzoglou, 2012). In addition, Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) global climate model (GCM) outputs were used as input to run crop growth model and erosion future scenarios (Abatzoglou and Brown, 2011). To facilitate our integrated data analysis efforts, an agricultural sustainability web service architecture (THREDDS/Java/Python based) is under development, to allow for the programmatic uploading, sharing and processing of variable input data, running model simulations, as well as downloading and visualizing output results. The results of this study will assist in better understanding agricultural sustainability and erosion relationships in the IPNW, as well as provide a tangible server-based tool for use by researchers and farmers - for both small scale field examination, or more regionalized scenarios.

Estimating the future agriculture freight transportation network needs due to climate change using remote sensing and regional climate models.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

A reoccurring challenge with increasing fuel prices is optimization of multi- and inter-modal freight transport to move products most efficiently. Projections for the future of agriculture in the United States (U.S.) combined with regional climate mo...

Tracer water transport and subgrid precipitation variation within atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koster, Randal D.; Eagleson, Peter S.; Broecker, Wallace S.

1988-03-01

A capability is developed for monitoring tracer water movement in the three-dimensional Goddard Institute for Space Science Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM). A typical experiment with the tracer water model follows water evaporating from selected grid squares and determines where this water first returns to the Earth's surface as precipitation or condensate, thereby providing information on the lateral scales of hydrological transport in the GCM. Through a comparison of model results with observations in nature, inferences can be drawn concerning real world water transport. Tests of the tracer water model include a comparison of simulated and observed vertically-integrated vapor flux fields and simulations of atomic tritium transport from the stratosphere to the oceans. The inter-annual variability of the tracer water model results is also examined.

Tracer water transport and subgrid precipitation variation within atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Eagleson, Peter S.; Broecker, Wallace S.

1988-01-01

A capability is developed for monitoring tracer water movement in the three-dimensional Goddard Institute for Space Science Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM). A typical experiment with the tracer water model follows water evaporating from selected grid squares and determines where this water first returns to the Earth's surface as precipitation or condensate, thereby providing information on the lateral scales of hydrological transport in the GCM. Through a comparison of model results with observations in nature, inferences can be drawn concerning real world water transport. Tests of the tracer water model include a comparison of simulated and observed vertically-integrated vapor flux fields and simulations of atomic tritium transport from the stratosphere to the oceans. The inter-annual variability of the tracer water model results is also examined.

Alpha-beta and gamma rhythms subserve feedback and feedforward influences among human visual cortical areas

PubMed Central

Michalareas, Georgios; Vezoli, Julien; van Pelt, Stan; Schoffelen, Jan-Mathijs; Kennedy, Henry; Fries, Pascal

2016-01-01

Primate visual cortex is hierarchically organized. Bottom-up and top-down influences are exerted through distinct frequency channels, as was recently revealed in macaques by correlating inter-areal influences with laminar anatomical projection patterns. Because this anatomical data cannot be obtained in human subjects, we selected seven homologous macaque and human visual areas, and correlated the macaque laminar projection patterns to human inter-areal directed influences as measured with magnetoencephalography. We show that influences along feedforward projections predominate in the gamma band, whereas influences along feedback projections predominate in the alpha-beta band. Rhythmic inter-areal influences constrain a functional hierarchy of the seven homologous human visual areas that is in close agreement with the respective macaque anatomical hierarchy. Rhythmic influences allow an extension of the hierarchy to 26 human visual areas including uniquely human brain areas. Hierarchical levels of ventral and dorsal stream visual areas are differentially affected by inter-areal influences in the alpha-beta band. PMID:26777277

Explore GPM IMERG and Other Global Precipitation Products with GES DISC GIOVANNI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana M.; Vollmer, Bruce; MacRitchie, Kyle; Kempler, Steven

2015-01-01

New features and capabilities in the newly released GIOVANNI allow exploring GPM IMERG (Integrated Multi-satelliE Retrievals for GPM) Early, Late and Final Run global half-hourly and monthly precipitation products as well as other precipitation products distributed by the GES DISC such as TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications), NLDAS (North American Land Data Assimilation Systems), GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation Systems), etc. GIOVANNI is a web-based tool developed by the GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences and Data Information Services Center) to visualize and analyze Earth science data without having to download data and software. The new interface in GIOVANNI allows searching and filtering precipitation products from different NASA missions and projects and expands the capabilities to inter-compare different precipitation products in one interface. Knowing differences in precipitation products is important to identify issues in retrieval algorithms, biases, uncertainties, etc. Due to different formats, data structures, units and so on, it is not easy to inter-compare precipitation products. Newly added features and capabilities (unit conversion, regridding, etc.) in GIOVANNI make inter-comparisons possible. In this presentation, we will describe these new features and capabilities along with examples.

Inter-institutional Development of a Poster-Based Cancer Biology Learning Tool

PubMed Central

Andraos-Selim, Cecile; Modzelewski, Ruth A.; Steinman, Richard A.

2010-01-01

There is a paucity of African-American Cancer researchers. To help address this, an educational collaboration was developed between a Comprehensive Cancer Center and a distant undergraduate biology department at a minority institution that sought to teach students introductory cancer biology while modeling research culture. A student-centered active learning curriculum was established that incorporated scientific poster presentations and simulated research exercises to foster learning of cancer biology. Students successfully mined primary literature for supportive data to test cancer-related hypotheses. Student feedback indicated that the poster project substantially enhanced depth of understanding of cancer biology and laid the groundwork for subsequent laboratory work. This inter-institutional collaboration modeled the research process while conveying facts and concepts about cancer. PMID:20237886

Inter-Sensor Comparison of Satellite Ocean Color Products from GOCI and MODIS

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-26

current map for this region. However the NOCOM modeled and GOCI measured data need to be validate using in-situ measurements. ...collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ORGANIZATION...Ocean Model (NCOM). 15. SUBJECT TERMS satellite ocean color products, GOCI, MODIS, phytoplankton 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: a. REPORT

Two Approaches to Engineering Design:Observations in sTEm Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelley, Todd R.; Brenner, Daniel C.; Pieper, Jon T.

2010-01-01

A comparative study was conducted to compare two approaches to engineering design curriculum across different schools (inter-school) and across two curricula "Project Lead the Way and Engineering Projects in Community Service" (inter-curricula). The researchers collected curricula material including handouts, lesson plans, guides,…

The GULLS project: a comparison of vulnerabilities across selected ocean hotspots and implications for adaptation to global change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochrane, K.; Hobday, A. J.; Aswani, S.; Byfield, V.; Dutra, L.; Gasalla, M.; Haward, M.; Paytan, A.; Pecl, G.; Plaganyi-Lloyd, E.; Popova, K.; Salim, S. S.; Savage, C.; Sauer, W.; van Putten, I. E.; Visser, N.; Team, T G

2016-12-01

The GULLS project, `Global learning for local solutions: Reducing vulnerability of marine-dependent coastal communities' has been underway since October 2014. The project has been investigating six regional `hotspots': marine areas experiencing rapid warming. These are south-east Australia, Brazil, India, Solomon Islands, South Africa, and the Mozambique Channel and Madagascar. Rapid warming could be expected to have social, cultural and economic impacts that could affect these countries in different ways and may already be doing so. GULLS has focused on contributing to assessing and reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities and other stakeholders dependent on marine resources and to facilitate adaptation to climate change and variability through an integrated and trans-disciplinary approach. It includes participants from Australia, Brazil, India, Madagascar, New Zealand, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The research programme has been divided into six inter-linked components: ocean models, biological and ecological sensitivity analyses, system models, social vulnerability, policy mapping, and communication and education. This presentation will provide a brief overview of each of these components and describe the benefits that have resulted from the collaborative and transdisciplinary approach of GULLS. Following the standard vulnerability elements of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, the vulnerabilities of coastal communities and other stakeholders dependent on marine resources in the five hotspots will be compared using a set of indicators derived and populated from results of the research programme. The implications of similarities and differences between the hotspots for adaptation planning and options will be described.

Compatibility of different measurement techniques of global solar radiation and application for long-term observations at Izaña Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delia García, Rosa; Cuevas, Emilio; García, Omaira Elena; Ramos, Ramón; Romero-Campos, Pedro Miguel; de Ory, Fernado; Cachorro, Victoria Eugenia; de Frutos, Angel

2017-03-01

A 1-year inter-comparison of classical and modern radiation and sunshine duration (SD) instruments has been performed at Izaña Atmospheric Observatory (IZO) located in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain) starting on 17 July 2014. We compare daily global solar radiation (GSRH) records measured with a Kipp & Zonen CM-21 pyranometer, taken in the framework of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network, with those measured with a multifilter rotating shadowband radiometer (MFRSR), a bimetallic pyranometer (PYR) and GSRH estimated from sunshine duration performed by a Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorder (CS) and a Kipp & Zonen sunshine duration sensor (CSD). Given that the BSRN GSRH records passed strict quality controls (based on principles of physical limits and comparison with the LibRadtran model), they have been used as reference in the inter-comparison study. We obtain an overall root mean square error (RMSE) of ˜ 0.9 MJm-2 (4 %) for PYR and MFRSR GSRH, 1.9 (7 %) and 1.2 MJm-2 (5 %) for CS and CSD GSRH, respectively. Factors such as temperature, relative humidity (RH) and the solar zenith angle (SZA) have been shown to moderately affect the GSRH observations. As an application of the methodology developed in this work, we have re-evaluated the GSRH data time series obtained at IZO with two PYRs between 1977 and 1991. Their high consistency and temporal stability have been proved by comparing with GSRH estimates obtained from SD observations. These results demonstrate that (1) the continuous-basis inter-comparison of different GSRH techniques offers important diagnostics for identifying inconsistencies between GSRH data records, and (2) the GSRH measurements performed with classical and more simple instruments are consistent with more modern techniques and, thus, valid to recover GSRH data time series and complete worldwide distributed GSRH data. The inter-comparison and quality assessment of these different techniques have allowed us to obtain a complete and consistent long-term global solar radiation series (1977-2015) at Izaña.

Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laufkötter, C.; Vogt, M.; Gruber, N.; Aita-Noguchi, M.; Aumont, O.; Bopp, L.; Buitenhuis, E.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J.; Hashioka, T.; Hauck, J.; Hirata, T.; John, J.; Le Quéré, C.; Lima, I. D.; Nakano, H.; Seferian, R.; Totterdell, I.; Vichi, M.; Völker, C.

2015-12-01

Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean rather than on the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model-simulated changes in NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We use a suite of nine coupled carbon-climate Earth system models with embedded marine ecosystem models and focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, NPP decreases in five out of the nine models over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between -25 and +40 %. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification leading to reduced phytoplankton growth. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduce NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while NPP in the remaining model changes by less than 0.5 %. While models consistently project increases NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but it is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their development.

Carotid stenosis assessment with multi-detector CT angiography: comparison between manual and automatic segmentation methods.

PubMed

Zhu, Chengcheng; Patterson, Andrew J; Thomas, Owen M; Sadat, Umar; Graves, Martin J; Gillard, Jonathan H

2013-04-01

Luminal stenosis is used for selecting the optimal management strategy for patients with carotid artery disease. The aim of this study is to evaluate the reproducibility of carotid stenosis quantification using manual and automated segmentation methods using submillimeter through-plane resolution Multi-Detector CT angiography (MDCTA). 35 patients having carotid artery disease with >30 % luminal stenosis as identified by carotid duplex imaging underwent contrast enhanced MDCTA. Two experienced CT readers quantified carotid stenosis from axial source images, reconstructed maximum intensity projection (MIP) and 3D-carotid geometry which was automatically segmented by an open-source toolkit (Vascular Modelling Toolkit, VMTK) using NASCET criteria. Good agreement among the measurement using axial images, MIP and automatic segmentation was observed. Automatic segmentation methods show better inter-observer agreement between the readers (intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC): 0.99 for diameter stenosis measurement) than manual measurement of axial (ICC = 0.82) and MIP (ICC = 0.86) images. Carotid stenosis quantification using an automatic segmentation method has higher reproducibility compared with manual methods.

Projected changes of the southwest Australian wave climate under two atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hemer, Mark A.

2017-09-01

Incident wave energy flux is responsible for sediment transport and coastal erosion in wave-dominated regions such as the southwestern Australian (SWA) coastal zone. To evaluate future wave climates under increased greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, past studies have forced global wave simulations with wind data sourced from global climate model (GCM) simulations. However, due to the generally coarse spatial resolution of global climate and wave simulations, the effects of changing offshore wave conditions and sea level rise on the nearshore wave climate are still relatively unknown. To address this gap of knowledge, we investigated the projected SWA offshore, shelf, and nearshore wave climate under two potential future greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This was achieved by downscaling an ensemble of global wave simulations, forced with winds from GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5), into two regional domains, using the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model. The wave climate is modeled for a historical 20-year time slice (1986-2005) and a projected future 20-year time-slice (2081-2100) for both scenarios. Furthermore, we compare these scenarios to the effects of considering sea-level rise (SLR) alone (stationary wave climate), and to the effects of combined SLR and projected wind-wave change. Results indicated that the SWA shelf and nearshore wave climate is more sensitive to changes in offshore mean wave direction than offshore wave heights. Nearshore, wave energy flux was projected to increase by ∼10% in exposed areas and decrease by ∼10% in sheltered areas under both climate scenarios due to a change in wave directions, compared to an overall increase of 2-4% in offshore wave heights. With SLR, the annual mean wave energy flux was projected to increase by up to 20% in shallow water (< 30 m) as a result of decreased wave dissipation. In winter months, the longshore wave energy flux, which is responsible for littoral drift, is expected to increase by up to 39% (62%) under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration pathway with SLR. The study highlights the importance of using high-resolution wave simulations to evaluate future regional wave climates, since the coastal wave climate is more responsive to changes in wave direction and sea level than offshore wave heights.

Inter-comparison of hydro-climatic regimes across northern catchments: snychronicity, resistance and resilience

Treesearch

Sean K. Carey; Doerthe Tetzlaff; Jan Seibert; Chris Soulsby; Jim Buttle; Hjalmar Laudon; Jeff McDonnell; Kevin McGuire; Daniel Caissie; Jamie Shanley; Mike Kennedy; Kevin Devito; John W. Pomeroy

2010-01-01

The higher mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are particularly sensitive to climate change as small differences in temperature determine frozen ground status, precipitation phase, and the magnitude and timing of snow accumulation and melt. An international inter-catchment comparison program, North-Watch, seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of...

Atmospheric Correction Inter-comparison Exercise (ACIX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermote, E.; Doxani, G.; Gascon, F.; Roger, J. C.; Skakun, S.

2017-12-01

The free and open data access policy to Landsat-8 (L-8) and Sentinel-2 (S-2) satellite imagery has encouraged the development of atmospheric correction (AC) approaches for generating Bottom-of-Atmosphere (BOA) products. Several entities have started to generate (or plan to generate in the short term) BOA reflectance products at global scale for L-8 and S-2 missions. To this end, the European Space Agency (ESA) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have initiated an exercise on the inter-comparison of the available AC processors. The results of the exercise are expected to point out the strengths and weaknesses, as well as communalities and discrepancies of various AC processors, in order to suggest and define ways for their further improvement. In particular, 11 atmospheric processors from five different countries participate in ACIX with the aim to inter-compare their performance when applied to L-8 and S-2 data. All the processors should be operational without requiring parametrization when applied on different areas. A protocol describing in details the inter-comparison metrics and the test dataset based on the AERONET sites has been agreed unanimously during the 1st ACIX workshop in June 2016. In particular, a basic and an advanced run of each of the processor were requested in the frame of ACIX, with the aim to draw robust and reliable conclusions on the processors' performance. The protocol also describes the comparison metrics of the aerosol optical thickness and water vapour products of the processors with the corresponding AERONET measurements. Moreover, concerning the surface reflectances, the inter-comparison among the processors is defined, as well as the comparison with the MODIS surface reflectance and with a reference surface reflectance product. Such a reference product will be obtained using the AERONET characterization of the aerosol (size distribution and refractive indices) and an accurate radiative transfer code. The inter-comparison outcomes were presented and discussed among the ACIX participants in the 2nd ACIX workshop, which was held on 11-12 April 2017 (ESRIN/ESA) and a detailed report was compiled. The proposed presentation is an opportunity for the user community to be informed about the ACIX results and conclusions.

Inter-comparison of time series models of lake levels predicted by several modeling strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatibi, R.; Ghorbani, M. A.; Naghipour, L.; Jothiprakash, V.; Fathima, T. A.; Fazelifard, M. H.

2014-04-01

Five modeling strategies are employed to analyze water level time series of six lakes with different physical characteristics such as shape, size, altitude and range of variations. The models comprise chaos theory, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) - treated for seasonality and hence SARIMA, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Each is formulated on a different premise with different underlying assumptions. Chaos theory is elaborated in a greater detail as it is customary to identify the existence of chaotic signals by a number of techniques (e.g. average mutual information and false nearest neighbors) and future values are predicted using the Nonlinear Local Prediction (NLP) technique. This paper takes a critical view of past inter-comparison studies seeking a superior performance, against which it is reported that (i) the performances of all five modeling strategies vary from good to poor, hampering the recommendation of a clear-cut predictive model; (ii) the performances of the datasets of two cases are consistently better with all five modeling strategies; (iii) in other cases, their performances are poor but the results can still be fit-for-purpose; (iv) the simultaneous good performances of NLP and SARIMA pull their underlying assumptions to different ends, which cannot be reconciled. A number of arguments are presented including the culture of pluralism, according to which the various modeling strategies facilitate an insight into the data from different vantages.

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.

PubMed

Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Frieler, Katja; Konzmann, Markus; Gerten, Dieter; Glotter, Michael; Flörke, Martina; Wada, Yoshihide; Best, Neil; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Folberth, Christian; Foster, Ian; Gosling, Simon N; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Khabarov, Nikolay; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Olin, Stefan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

GLM Proxy Data Generation: Methods for Stroke/Pulse Level Inter-Comparison of Ground-Based Lightning Reference Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cummins, Kenneth L.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Christopher J.; Bateman, Monte G.; Cecil, Daniel J.; Rudlosky, Scott D.; Petersen, Walter Arthur; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Goodman, Steven J.

2011-01-01

In order to produce useful proxy data for the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) in regions not covered by VLF lightning mapping systems, we intend to employ data produced by ground-based (regional or global) VLF/LF lightning detection networks. Before using these data in GLM Risk Reduction tasks, it is necessary to have a quantitative understanding of the performance of these networks, in terms of CG flash/stroke DE, cloud flash/pulse DE, location accuracy, and CLD/CG classification error. This information is being obtained through inter-comparison with LMAs and well-quantified VLF/LF lightning networks. One of our approaches is to compare "bulk" counting statistics on the spatial scale of convective cells, in order to both quantify relative performance and observe variations in cell-based temporal trends provided by each network. In addition, we are using microsecond-level stroke/pulse time correlation to facilitate detailed inter-comparisons at a more-fundamental level. The current development status of our ground-based inter-comparison and evaluation tools will be presented, and performance metrics will be discussed through a comparison of Vaisala s Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) with the NLDN at locations within and outside the U.S.

GLM Proxy Data Generation: Methods for Stroke/Pulse Level Inter-comparison of Ground-based Lightning Reference Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cummins, K. L.; Carey, L. D.; Schultz, C. J.; Bateman, M. G.; Cecil, D. J.; Rudlosky, S. D.; Petersen, W. A.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Goodman, S. J.

2011-12-01

In order to produce useful proxy data for the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) in regions not covered by VLF lightning mapping systems, we intend to employ data produced by ground-based (regional or global) VLF/LF lightning detection networks. Before using these data in GLM Risk Reduction tasks, it is necessary to have a quantitative understanding of the performance of these networks, in terms of CG flash/stroke DE, cloud flash/pulse DE, location accuracy, and CLD/CG classification error. This information is being obtained through inter-comparison with LMAs and well-quantified VLF/LF lightning networks. One of our approaches is to compare "bulk" counting statistics on the spatial scale of convective cells, in order to both quantify relative performance and observe variations in cell-based temporal trends provided by each network. In addition, we are using microsecond-level stroke/pulse time correlation to facilitate detailed inter-comparisons at a more-fundamental level. The current development status of our ground-based inter-comparison and evaluation tools will be presented, and performance metrics will be discussed through a comparison of Vaisala's Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) with the NLDN at locations within and outside the U.S.

Inter-organizational collaboration projects in the public sector: a balance between integration and demarcation.

PubMed

Löfström, Mikael

2010-01-01

For several years, the development of the Swedish public sector has been accompanied by a discussion about inter-organizational collaboration, which has been examined in several national experiments. The experience, however, indicates significant difficulties in implementing collaboration in local authorities' regular activities. This article argues that organizing inter-organizational collaboration in projects tends to be counterproductive, since the purpose of this collaboration is to increase the integration of local authorities. This article is based on case studies of three different collaboration projects. Each project is analyzed in relation to the way collaboration is organized within the project and how the relationship to the local authorities' activities is designed. The outcome of these studies shows that while collaboration projects increase integration between the responsible authorities, the integration stays within the projects. This is due to the fact that the projects were designed as units separate from the responsible authorities. As a result, the collaboration that occurs in the projects is not implemented in the local authorities' activities, and the viability of the increased integration of different responsible authorities does not extend beyond the projects. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mu, Jianhong E.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Zhang, Hongliang

2018-01-01

This paper examines adaptation responses to climate change through adjustment of agricultural land use. The climate drivers we examine are changes in long-term climate normals (e.g., 10-year moving averages) and changes in inter-annual climate variability. Using US county level data over 1982 to 2012 from Census of Agriculture, we find that impacts of long-term climate normals are as important as that of inter-annual climate variability. Projecting into the future, we find projected climate change will lead to an expansion in crop land share across the northern and interior western United States with decreases in the south. We also find that grazing land share increases in southern regions and Inland Pacific Northwest and declines in the northern areas. However, the extent to which the adaptation potential would be is dependent on the climate model, emission scenario and time horizon under consideration.

Quebec's Tele-Universite: A Long Way to Xanadu

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guillemet, Patrick

2005-01-01

This article is a descriptive overview of one aspect of the history of Quebec's Tele-universite (TU). This case is used to unveil the inter-organizational and political tensions which may accompany the somewhat difficult development of a distance education model. Teleuniversite was created in 1972 as an experimental project by the Universite du…

The NASA Radiation Interuniversity Science and Engineering(RaISE) Project: A Model for Inter-collaboration and Distance Learning in Radiation Physics and Nuclear Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Denkins, Pamela S.; Saganti, P.; Obot, V.; Singleterry, R.

2006-01-01

This viewgraph document reviews the Radiation Interuniversity Science and Engineering (RaISE) Project, which is a project that has as its goals strengthening and furthering the curriculum in radiation sciences at two Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU), Prairie View A&M University and Texas Southern University. Those were chosen in part because of the proximity to NASA Johnson Space Center, a lead center for the Space Radiation Health Program. The presentation reviews the courses that have been developed, both in-class, and on-line.

The potential of statistical shape modelling for geometric morphometric analysis of human teeth in archaeological research

PubMed Central

Fernee, Christianne; Browne, Martin; Zakrzewski, Sonia

2017-01-01

This paper introduces statistical shape modelling (SSM) for use in osteoarchaeology research. SSM is a full field, multi-material analytical technique, and is presented as a supplementary geometric morphometric (GM) tool. Lower mandibular canines from two archaeological populations and one modern population were sampled, digitised using micro-CT, aligned, registered to a baseline and statistically modelled using principal component analysis (PCA). Sample material properties were incorporated as a binary enamel/dentin parameter. Results were assessed qualitatively and quantitatively using anatomical landmarks. Finally, the technique’s application was demonstrated for inter-sample comparison through analysis of the principal component (PC) weights. It was found that SSM could provide high detail qualitative and quantitative insight with respect to archaeological inter- and intra-sample variability. This technique has value for archaeological, biomechanical and forensic applications including identification, finite element analysis (FEA) and reconstruction from partial datasets. PMID:29216199

Modeling and Assessment of GPS/BDS Combined Precise Point Positioning.

PubMed

Chen, Junping; Wang, Jungang; Zhang, Yize; Yang, Sainan; Chen, Qian; Gong, Xiuqiang

2016-07-22

Precise Point Positioning (PPP) technique enables stand-alone receivers to obtain cm-level positioning accuracy. Observations from multi-GNSS systems can augment users with improved positioning accuracy, reliability and availability. In this paper, we present and evaluate the GPS/BDS combined PPP models, including the traditional model and a simplified model, where the inter-system bias (ISB) is treated in different way. To evaluate the performance of combined GPS/BDS PPP, kinematic and static PPP positions are compared to the IGS daily estimates, where 1 month GPS/BDS data of 11 IGS Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) stations are used. The results indicate apparent improvement of GPS/BDS combined PPP solutions in both static and kinematic cases, where much smaller standard deviations are presented in the magnitude distribution of coordinates RMS statistics. Comparisons between the traditional and simplified combined PPP models show no difference in coordinate estimations, and the inter system biases between the GPS/BDS system are assimilated into receiver clock, ambiguities and pseudo-range residuals accordingly.

SPARC's Stratospheric Sulfur and its Role in Climate Activity (SSiRC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomason, Larry

2015-01-01

The stratospheric aerosol layer is a key component in the climate system. It affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere directly through interactions with solar and terrestrial radiation, and indirectly through its effect on stratospheric ozone. Because the stratospheric aerosol layer is prescribed in many climate models and Chemistry-Climate Models (CCMs), model simulations of future atmospheric conditions and climate generally do not account for the interaction between the aerosol-sulfur cycle and changes in the climate system. The present understanding of how the stratospheric aerosol layer may be affected by future climate change and how the stratospheric aerosol layer may drive climate change is, therefore, very limited. The purposes of SSiRC (Stratospheric Sulfur and its Role in Climate) include: (i) providing a coordinating structure for the various individual activities already underway in different research centers; (ii) encouraging and supporting new instrumentation and measurements of sulfur containing compounds, such as COS, DMS, and non-volcanic SO2 in the UT/LS globally; and (iii) initiating new model/data inter-comparisons. SSiRC is developing collaborations with a number of other SPARC activities including CCMI and ACAM. This presentation will highlight the scientific goals of this project and on-going activities and propose potential interactions between SSiRC and ACAM.

Evaluating NASA S-NPP continuity cloud products for climate research using CALIPSO, CATS and Level-3 analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holz, R.; Platnick, S. E.; Meyer, K.; Frey, R.; Wind, G.; Ackerman, S. A.; Heidinger, A. K.; Botambekov, D.; Yorks, J. E.; McGill, M. J.

2016-12-01

The launch of VIIRS and CrIS on Suomi NPP in the fall of 2011 introduced the next generation of U.S. operational polar orbiting environmental observations. Similar to MODIS, VIIRS provides visible and IR observations at moderate spatial resolution and has a 1:30 pm equatorial crossing time consistent with the MODIS on Aqua platform. However unlike MODIS, VIIRS lacks water vapor and CO2 absorbing channels that are used by the MODIS cloud algorithms for both cloud detection and to retrieve cloud top height and cloud emissivity for ice clouds. Given the different spectral and spatial characteristics of VIIRS, we seek to understand the extent to which the 15-year MODIS climate record can be continued with VIIRS/CrIS observations while maintaining consistent sensitivities across the observational systems. This presentation will focus on the evaluation of the latest version of the NASA funded cloud retrieval algorithms being developed for climate research. We will present collocated inter-comparisons between the imagers (VIIRS and MODIS Aqua) with CALIPSO and Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS) lidar observations as well as long term statistics based on a new Level-3 (L3) product being developed as part the project. The CALIPSO inter-comparisons will focus on cloud detection (cloud mask) with a focus on the impact of recent modifications to the cloud mask and how these changes impact the global statistics. For the first time we will provide inter-comparisons between two different cloud lidar systems (CALIOP and CATS) and investigate how the different sensitivities of the lidars impact the cloud mask and cloud comparisons. Using CALIPSO and CATS as the reference, and applying the same algorithms to VIIRS and MODIS, we will discuss the consistency between products from both imagers. The L3 analysis will focus on the regional and seasonal consistency between the suite of MODIS and VIIRS continuity cloud products. Do systematic biases remains when using consistent algorithms but applied to different observations (MODIS or VIIRS)?

Round-robin 230Th– 234U age dating of bulk uranium for nuclear forensics

DOE PAGES

Gaffney, Amy M.; Hubert, Amélie; Kinman, William S.; ...

2015-07-30

We report that in an inter-laboratory measurement comparison study, four laboratories determined 230Th– 234U model ages of uranium certified reference material NBL U050 using isotope dilution mass spectrometry. The model dates determined by the participating laboratories range from 9 March 1956 to 19 October 1957, and are indistinguishable given the associated measurement uncertainties. These model ages are concordant with to slightly older than the known production age of NBL U050.

Round-robin 230Th– 234U age dating of bulk uranium for nuclear forensics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaffney, Amy M.; Hubert, Amélie; Kinman, William S.

We report that in an inter-laboratory measurement comparison study, four laboratories determined 230Th– 234U model ages of uranium certified reference material NBL U050 using isotope dilution mass spectrometry. The model dates determined by the participating laboratories range from 9 March 1956 to 19 October 1957, and are indistinguishable given the associated measurement uncertainties. These model ages are concordant with to slightly older than the known production age of NBL U050.

Comparison of optimal wavelengths selection methods for visible/near-infrared prediction of apple firmness and soluble solids content

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Visible and near-infrared (Vis-NIR) spectroscopy is now being used for nondestructive quality measurement of fruits and other food products. To implement the technology, it is necessary to develop an effective calibration model relating the acquired spectral data to the quality attribute(s) of inter...

Accelerating Cancer Systems Biology Research through Semantic Web Technology

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhihui; Sagotsky, Jonathan; Taylor, Thomas; Shironoshita, Patrick; Deisboeck, Thomas S.

2012-01-01

Cancer systems biology is an interdisciplinary, rapidly expanding research field in which collaborations are a critical means to advance the field. Yet the prevalent database technologies often isolate data rather than making it easily accessible. The Semantic Web has the potential to help facilitate web-based collaborative cancer research by presenting data in a manner that is self-descriptive, human and machine readable, and easily sharable. We have created a semantically linked online Digital Model Repository (DMR) for storing, managing, executing, annotating, and sharing computational cancer models. Within the DMR, distributed, multidisciplinary, and inter-organizational teams can collaborate on projects, without forfeiting intellectual property. This is achieved by the introduction of a new stakeholder to the collaboration workflow, the institutional licensing officer, part of the Technology Transfer Office. Furthermore, the DMR has achieved silver level compatibility with the National Cancer Institute’s caBIG®, so users can not only interact with the DMR through a web browser but also through a semantically annotated and secure web service. We also discuss the technology behind the DMR leveraging the Semantic Web, ontologies, and grid computing to provide secure inter-institutional collaboration on cancer modeling projects, online grid-based execution of shared models, and the collaboration workflow protecting researchers’ intellectual property. PMID:23188758

Accelerating cancer systems biology research through Semantic Web technology.

PubMed

Wang, Zhihui; Sagotsky, Jonathan; Taylor, Thomas; Shironoshita, Patrick; Deisboeck, Thomas S

2013-01-01

Cancer systems biology is an interdisciplinary, rapidly expanding research field in which collaborations are a critical means to advance the field. Yet the prevalent database technologies often isolate data rather than making it easily accessible. The Semantic Web has the potential to help facilitate web-based collaborative cancer research by presenting data in a manner that is self-descriptive, human and machine readable, and easily sharable. We have created a semantically linked online Digital Model Repository (DMR) for storing, managing, executing, annotating, and sharing computational cancer models. Within the DMR, distributed, multidisciplinary, and inter-organizational teams can collaborate on projects, without forfeiting intellectual property. This is achieved by the introduction of a new stakeholder to the collaboration workflow, the institutional licensing officer, part of the Technology Transfer Office. Furthermore, the DMR has achieved silver level compatibility with the National Cancer Institute's caBIG, so users can interact with the DMR not only through a web browser but also through a semantically annotated and secure web service. We also discuss the technology behind the DMR leveraging the Semantic Web, ontologies, and grid computing to provide secure inter-institutional collaboration on cancer modeling projects, online grid-based execution of shared models, and the collaboration workflow protecting researchers' intellectual property. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Development of the lunar gravity field model GrazLGM300b in the framework of project GRAZIL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krauss, Sandro; Klinger, Beate; Wirnsberger, Harald; Baur, Oliver; Mayer-Gürr, Torsten

2015-04-01

The objective of project GRAZIL is to compile a high-accurate gravity field model of the Moon based on measurements provided by the Gravity Recovery And Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission. In order to reach this goal we perform dynamic precise orbit determination from radio science observations (Doppler range-rates) in combination with the analysis of inter-satellite ranging observations. We present an updated version of the lunar gravity field models GrazLGM200a (Klinger et al. 2014; doi: 10.1016/j.pss.2013.12.001) and GrazLGM300a (prepared for the 2014 AGU Fall Meeting) derived from inter-satellite Ka-band ranging (KBR) observations collected by GRAIL during the primary mission phase (March 1 to May 29, 2012). We exploit the KBR data by an integral equation approach using short orbital arcs. The basic idea behind this technique is to reformulate Newton's equation of motion as a boundary value problem. In this contribution particular attention is paid to processing details associated with the error structure of the observations and the incorporation of non-gravitational accelerations (with emphasis on solar radiation pressure, lunar albedo and self-shadowing). We validate our results against recent GRAIL models computed at NASA-GSFC and NASA-JPL.

Variability in Terrestrial Water Storage and its effect on polar motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Śliwińska, Justyna; Nastula, Jolanta

2017-04-01

Explaining the hydrological part of observed polar motion excitation has been a major challenge over a dozen years. The terrestrial water storage (TWS) excitation of polar motion - hydrological angular momentum (HAM), has been investigated widely using global hydrological models mainly at seasonal timescales. Unfortunately, the results from the models do not fully explain the role of hydrological signal in polar motion excitation. The determination of TWS from the Earth's gravity field observations represents an indirect approach for estimating land hydrology. Throughout the past decade, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has given an unprecedented view on global variations in Terrestrial Water Storage. Our investigations are focused on the influence of Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) variations obtained from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission on polar motion excitation functions at decadal and inter-annual timescales. The global and regional trend, seasonal cycle as well as some extremes in TWS variations are considered here. Here TWS are obtained from the monthly mass grids land GRACE Tellus data: GRACE CSR RL05, GRACE GFZ RL05 and GRACE JPL RL05. As a comparative dataset, we also use TWS estimates determined from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). GRACE data and state-of-the-art CMIP5 climate models allow us to show the variability of hydrological part of polar motion under climate changes. Our studies include two steps: first, the determination and comparisons of regional patterns of TWS obtained from GRACE data and climate models, and second, comparison of the regional and global hydrological excitation functions of polar motion with a hydrological signal in the geodetic excitation functions of polar motion.

Synchronized Trajectories in a Climate "Supermodel"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duane, Gregory; Schevenhoven, Francine; Selten, Frank

2017-04-01

Differences in climate projections among state-of-the-art models can be resolved by connecting the models in run-time, either through inter-model nudging or by directly combining the tendencies for corresponding variables. Since it is clearly established that averaging model outputs typically results in improvement as compared to any individual model output, averaged re-initializations at typical analysis time intervals also seems appropriate. The resulting "supermodel" is more like a single model than it is like an ensemble, because the constituent models tend to synchronize even with limited inter-model coupling. Thus one can examine the properties of specific trajectories, rather than averaging the statistical properties of the separate models. We apply this strategy to a study of the index cycle in a supermodel constructed from several imperfect copies of the SPEEDO model (a global primitive-equation atmosphere-ocean-land climate model). As with blocking frequency, typical weather statistics of interest like probabilities of heat waves or extreme precipitation events, are improved as compared to the standard multi-model ensemble approach. In contrast to the standard approach, the supermodel approach provides detailed descriptions of typical actual events.

Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project. Phase 1; The Critical Components to Simulate Cirrus Initiation Explicitly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Ruei-Fong; Starr, David OC; DeMott, Paul J.; Cotton, Richard; Sassen, Kenneth; Jensen, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project, a project of the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Studies) Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems, involves the systematic comparison of current models of ice crystal nucleation and growth for specified, typical, cirrus cloud environments. In Phase I of the project reported here, simulated cirrus cloud microphysical properties are compared for situations of "warm" (40 C) and "cold" (-60 C) cirrus, both subject to updrafts of 4, 20 and 100 centimeters per second. Five models participated. The various models employ explicit microphysical schemes wherein the size distribution of each class of particles (aerosols and ice crystals) is resolved into bins or treated separately. Simulations are made including both the homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanisms. A single initial aerosol population of sulfuric acid particles is prescribed for all simulations. To isolate the treatment of the homogeneous freezing (of haze droplets) nucleation process, the heterogeneous nucleation mechanism is disabled for a second parallel set of simulations. Qualitative agreement is found for the homogeneous-nucleation- only simulations, e.g., the number density of nucleated ice crystals increases with the strength of the prescribed updraft. However, significant quantitative differences are found. Detailed analysis reveals that the homogeneous nucleation rate, haze particle solution concentration, and water vapor uptake rate by ice crystal growth (particularly as controlled by the deposition coefficient) are critical components that lead to differences in predicted microphysics. Systematic bias exists between results based on a modified classical theory approach and models using an effective freezing temperature approach to the treatment of nucleation. Each approach is constrained by critical freezing data from laboratory studies, but each includes assumptions that can only be justified by further laboratory research. Consequently, it is not yet clear if the two approaches can be made consistent. Large haze particles may deviate considerably from equilibrium size in moderate to strong updrafts (20-100 centimeters per second) at -60 C when the commonly invoked equilibrium assumption is lifted. The resulting difference in particle-size- dependent solution concentration of haze particles may significantly affect the ice particle formation rate during the initial nucleation interval. The uptake rate for water vapor excess by ice crystals is another key component regulating the total number of nucleated ice crystals. This rate, the product of particle number concentration and ice crystal diffusional growth rate, which is particularly sensitive to the deposition coefficient when ice particles are small, modulates the peak particle formation rate achieved in an air parcel and the duration of the active nucleation time period. The effects of heterogeneous nucleation are most pronounced in weak updraft situations. Vapor competition by the heterogeneously nucleated ice crystals may limit the achieved ice supersaturation and thus suppresses the contribution of homogeneous nucleation. Correspondingly, ice crystal number density is markedly reduced. Definitive laboratory and atmospheric benchmark data are needed for the heterogeneous nucleation process. Inter-model differences are correspondingly greater than in the case of the homogeneous nucleation process acting alone.

Effect of inter- and intra-annual thermohaline variability on acoustic propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Peter C.; McDonald, Colleen M.; Kucukosmanoglu, Murat; Judono, Albert; Margolina, Tetyana; Fan, Chenwu

2017-05-01

This paper is to answer the question "How can inter- and intra-annual variability in the ocean be leveraged by the submarine Force?" through quantifying inter- and intra-annual variability in (T, S) fields and in turn underwater acoustic characteristics such as transmission loss, signal excess, and range of detection. The Navy's Generalized Digital Environmental Model (GDEM) is the climatological monthly mean data and represents mean annual variability. An optimal spectral decomposition method is used to produce a synoptic monthly gridded (SMG) (T, S) dataset for the world oceans with 1° ×1° horizontal resolution, 28 vertical levels (surface to 3,000 m depth), monthly time increment from January 1945 to December 2014 now available at the NOAA/NCEI website: http://data.nodc.noaa.gov/cgibin/iso?id=gov.noaa.nodc:0140938. The sound velocity decreases from 1945 to 1975 and increases afterwards due to global climate change. Effect of the inter- and intra-annual (T, S) variability on acoustic propagation in the Yellow Sea is investigated using a well-developed acoustic model (Bellhop) in frequencies from 3.5 kHz to 5 kHz with sound velocity profile (SVP) calculated from GDEM and SMG datasets, various bottom types (silty clay, fine sand, gravelly mud, sandy mud, and cobble or gravel) from the NAVOCEANO`s High Frequency Environmental Algorithms (HFEVA), source and receiver depths. Acoustic propagation ranges are extended drastically due to the inter-annual variability in comparison with the climatological SVP (from GDEM). Submarines' vulnerability of detection as its depth varies and avoidance of short acoustic range due to inter-annual variability are also discussed.

Identification and analysis of functional elements in 1% of the human genome by the ENCODE pilot project.

PubMed

Birney, Ewan; Stamatoyannopoulos, John A; Dutta, Anindya; Guigó, Roderic; Gingeras, Thomas R; Margulies, Elliott H; Weng, Zhiping; Snyder, Michael; Dermitzakis, Emmanouil T; Thurman, Robert E; Kuehn, Michael S; Taylor, Christopher M; Neph, Shane; Koch, Christoph M; Asthana, Saurabh; Malhotra, Ankit; Adzhubei, Ivan; Greenbaum, Jason A; Andrews, Robert M; Flicek, Paul; Boyle, Patrick J; Cao, Hua; Carter, Nigel P; Clelland, Gayle K; Davis, Sean; Day, Nathan; Dhami, Pawandeep; Dillon, Shane C; Dorschner, Michael O; Fiegler, Heike; Giresi, Paul G; Goldy, Jeff; Hawrylycz, Michael; Haydock, Andrew; Humbert, Richard; James, Keith D; Johnson, Brett E; Johnson, Ericka M; Frum, Tristan T; Rosenzweig, Elizabeth R; Karnani, Neerja; Lee, Kirsten; Lefebvre, Gregory C; Navas, Patrick A; Neri, Fidencio; Parker, Stephen C J; Sabo, Peter J; Sandstrom, Richard; Shafer, Anthony; Vetrie, David; Weaver, Molly; Wilcox, Sarah; Yu, Man; Collins, Francis S; Dekker, Job; Lieb, Jason D; Tullius, Thomas D; Crawford, Gregory E; Sunyaev, Shamil; Noble, William S; Dunham, Ian; Denoeud, France; Reymond, Alexandre; Kapranov, Philipp; Rozowsky, Joel; Zheng, Deyou; Castelo, Robert; Frankish, Adam; Harrow, Jennifer; Ghosh, Srinka; Sandelin, Albin; Hofacker, Ivo L; Baertsch, Robert; Keefe, Damian; Dike, Sujit; Cheng, Jill; Hirsch, Heather A; Sekinger, Edward A; Lagarde, Julien; Abril, Josep F; Shahab, Atif; Flamm, Christoph; Fried, Claudia; Hackermüller, Jörg; Hertel, Jana; Lindemeyer, Manja; Missal, Kristin; Tanzer, Andrea; Washietl, Stefan; Korbel, Jan; Emanuelsson, Olof; Pedersen, Jakob S; Holroyd, Nancy; Taylor, Ruth; Swarbreck, David; Matthews, Nicholas; Dickson, Mark C; Thomas, Daryl J; Weirauch, Matthew T; Gilbert, James; Drenkow, Jorg; Bell, Ian; Zhao, XiaoDong; Srinivasan, K G; Sung, Wing-Kin; Ooi, Hong Sain; Chiu, Kuo Ping; Foissac, Sylvain; Alioto, Tyler; Brent, Michael; Pachter, Lior; Tress, Michael L; Valencia, Alfonso; Choo, Siew Woh; Choo, Chiou Yu; Ucla, Catherine; Manzano, Caroline; Wyss, Carine; Cheung, Evelyn; Clark, Taane G; Brown, James B; Ganesh, Madhavan; Patel, Sandeep; Tammana, Hari; Chrast, Jacqueline; Henrichsen, Charlotte N; Kai, Chikatoshi; Kawai, Jun; Nagalakshmi, Ugrappa; Wu, Jiaqian; Lian, Zheng; Lian, Jin; Newburger, Peter; Zhang, Xueqing; Bickel, Peter; Mattick, John S; Carninci, Piero; Hayashizaki, Yoshihide; Weissman, Sherman; Hubbard, Tim; Myers, Richard M; Rogers, Jane; Stadler, Peter F; Lowe, Todd M; Wei, Chia-Lin; Ruan, Yijun; Struhl, Kevin; Gerstein, Mark; Antonarakis, Stylianos E; Fu, Yutao; Green, Eric D; Karaöz, Ulaş; Siepel, Adam; Taylor, James; Liefer, Laura A; Wetterstrand, Kris A; Good, Peter J; Feingold, Elise A; Guyer, Mark S; Cooper, Gregory M; Asimenos, George; Dewey, Colin N; Hou, Minmei; Nikolaev, Sergey; Montoya-Burgos, Juan I; Löytynoja, Ari; Whelan, Simon; Pardi, Fabio; Massingham, Tim; Huang, Haiyan; Zhang, Nancy R; Holmes, Ian; Mullikin, James C; Ureta-Vidal, Abel; Paten, Benedict; Seringhaus, Michael; Church, Deanna; Rosenbloom, Kate; Kent, W James; Stone, Eric A; Batzoglou, Serafim; Goldman, Nick; Hardison, Ross C; Haussler, David; Miller, Webb; Sidow, Arend; Trinklein, Nathan D; Zhang, Zhengdong D; Barrera, Leah; Stuart, Rhona; King, David C; Ameur, Adam; Enroth, Stefan; Bieda, Mark C; Kim, Jonghwan; Bhinge, Akshay A; Jiang, Nan; Liu, Jun; Yao, Fei; Vega, Vinsensius B; Lee, Charlie W H; Ng, Patrick; Shahab, Atif; Yang, Annie; Moqtaderi, Zarmik; Zhu, Zhou; Xu, Xiaoqin; Squazzo, Sharon; Oberley, Matthew J; Inman, David; Singer, Michael A; Richmond, Todd A; Munn, Kyle J; Rada-Iglesias, Alvaro; Wallerman, Ola; Komorowski, Jan; Fowler, Joanna C; Couttet, Phillippe; Bruce, Alexander W; Dovey, Oliver M; Ellis, Peter D; Langford, Cordelia F; Nix, David A; Euskirchen, Ghia; Hartman, Stephen; Urban, Alexander E; Kraus, Peter; Van Calcar, Sara; Heintzman, Nate; Kim, Tae Hoon; Wang, Kun; Qu, Chunxu; Hon, Gary; Luna, Rosa; Glass, Christopher K; Rosenfeld, M Geoff; Aldred, Shelley Force; Cooper, Sara J; Halees, Anason; Lin, Jane M; Shulha, Hennady P; Zhang, Xiaoling; Xu, Mousheng; Haidar, Jaafar N S; Yu, Yong; Ruan, Yijun; Iyer, Vishwanath R; Green, Roland D; Wadelius, Claes; Farnham, Peggy J; Ren, Bing; Harte, Rachel A; Hinrichs, Angie S; Trumbower, Heather; Clawson, Hiram; Hillman-Jackson, Jennifer; Zweig, Ann S; Smith, Kayla; Thakkapallayil, Archana; Barber, Galt; Kuhn, Robert M; Karolchik, Donna; Armengol, Lluis; Bird, Christine P; de Bakker, Paul I W; Kern, Andrew D; Lopez-Bigas, Nuria; Martin, Joel D; Stranger, Barbara E; Woodroffe, Abigail; Davydov, Eugene; Dimas, Antigone; Eyras, Eduardo; Hallgrímsdóttir, Ingileif B; Huppert, Julian; Zody, Michael C; Abecasis, Gonçalo R; Estivill, Xavier; Bouffard, Gerard G; Guan, Xiaobin; Hansen, Nancy F; Idol, Jacquelyn R; Maduro, Valerie V B; Maskeri, Baishali; McDowell, Jennifer C; Park, Morgan; Thomas, Pamela J; Young, Alice C; Blakesley, Robert W; Muzny, Donna M; Sodergren, Erica; Wheeler, David A; Worley, Kim C; Jiang, Huaiyang; Weinstock, George M; Gibbs, Richard A; Graves, Tina; Fulton, Robert; Mardis, Elaine R; Wilson, Richard K; Clamp, Michele; Cuff, James; Gnerre, Sante; Jaffe, David B; Chang, Jean L; Lindblad-Toh, Kerstin; Lander, Eric S; Koriabine, Maxim; Nefedov, Mikhail; Osoegawa, Kazutoyo; Yoshinaga, Yuko; Zhu, Baoli; de Jong, Pieter J

2007-06-14

We report the generation and analysis of functional data from multiple, diverse experiments performed on a targeted 1% of the human genome as part of the pilot phase of the ENCODE Project. These data have been further integrated and augmented by a number of evolutionary and computational analyses. Together, our results advance the collective knowledge about human genome function in several major areas. First, our studies provide convincing evidence that the genome is pervasively transcribed, such that the majority of its bases can be found in primary transcripts, including non-protein-coding transcripts, and those that extensively overlap one another. Second, systematic examination of transcriptional regulation has yielded new understanding about transcription start sites, including their relationship to specific regulatory sequences and features of chromatin accessibility and histone modification. Third, a more sophisticated view of chromatin structure has emerged, including its inter-relationship with DNA replication and transcriptional regulation. Finally, integration of these new sources of information, in particular with respect to mammalian evolution based on inter- and intra-species sequence comparisons, has yielded new mechanistic and evolutionary insights concerning the functional landscape of the human genome. Together, these studies are defining a path for pursuit of a more comprehensive characterization of human genome function.

Atlas-based segmentation technique incorporating inter-observer delineation uncertainty for whole breast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, L. R.; Dowling, J. A.; Pogson, E. M.; Metcalfe, P.; Holloway, L.

2017-01-01

Accurate, efficient auto-segmentation methods are essential for the clinical efficacy of adaptive radiotherapy delivered with highly conformal techniques. Current atlas based auto-segmentation techniques are adequate in this respect, however fail to account for inter-observer variation. An atlas-based segmentation method that incorporates inter-observer variation is proposed. This method is validated for a whole breast radiotherapy cohort containing 28 CT datasets with CTVs delineated by eight observers. To optimise atlas accuracy, the cohort was divided into categories by mean body mass index and laterality, with atlas’ generated for each in a leave-one-out approach. Observer CTVs were merged and thresholded to generate an auto-segmentation model representing both inter-observer and inter-patient differences. For each category, the atlas was registered to the left-out dataset to enable propagation of the auto-segmentation from atlas space. Auto-segmentation time was recorded. The segmentation was compared to the gold-standard contour using the dice similarity coefficient (DSC) and mean absolute surface distance (MASD). Comparison with the smallest and largest CTV was also made. This atlas-based auto-segmentation method incorporating inter-observer variation was shown to be efficient (<4min) and accurate for whole breast radiotherapy, with good agreement (DSC>0.7, MASD <9.3mm) between the auto-segmented contours and CTV volumes.

Detection of inter-turn faults in transformer winding using the capacitor discharge method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michna, Michał; Wilk, Andrzej; Ziółko, Michał; Wołoszyk, Marek; Swędrowski, Leon; Szwangruber, Piotr

2017-12-01

The paper presents results of an analysis of inter-turn fault effects on the voltage and current waveforms of a capacitor discharge through transformer windings. The research was conducted in the frame of the Facility of Antiproton and Ion Research project which goal is to build a new international accelerator facility that utilizes superconducting magnets. For the sake of electrical quality assurance of the superconducting magnet circuits, a measurement and diagnostic system is currently under development at Gdansk University of Technology (GUT). Appropriate measurements and simulations of the special transformer system were performed to verify the proposed diagnostic method. In order to take into account the nonlinearity and hysteresis of the magnetic yoke, a novel mathematical model of the transformer was developed. A special test bench was constructed to emulate the inter-turn faults within transformer windings.

Assessing doses to terrestrial wildlife at a radioactive waste disposal site: inter-comparison of modelling approaches.

PubMed

Johansen, M P; Barnett, C L; Beresford, N A; Brown, J E; Černe, M; Howard, B J; Kamboj, S; Keum, D-K; Smodiš, B; Twining, J R; Vandenhove, H; Vives i Batlle, J; Wood, M D; Yu, C

2012-06-15

Radiological doses to terrestrial wildlife were examined in this model inter-comparison study that emphasised factors causing variability in dose estimation. The study participants used varying modelling approaches and information sources to estimate dose rates and tissue concentrations for a range of biota types exposed to soil contamination at a shallow radionuclide waste burial site in Australia. Results indicated that the dominant factor causing variation in dose rate estimates (up to three orders of magnitude on mean total dose rates) was the soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides that included variation in transfer parameter values as well as transfer calculation methods. Additional variation was associated with other modelling factors including: how participants conceptualised and modelled the exposure configurations (two orders of magnitude); which progeny to include with the parent radionuclide (typically less than one order of magnitude); and dose calculation parameters, including radiation weighting factors and dose conversion coefficients (typically less than one order of magnitude). Probabilistic approaches to model parameterisation were used to encompass and describe variable model parameters and outcomes. The study confirms the need for continued evaluation of the underlying mechanisms governing soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides to improve estimation of dose rates to terrestrial wildlife. The exposure pathways and configurations available in most current codes are limited when considering instances where organisms access subsurface contamination through rooting, burrowing, or using different localised waste areas as part of their habitual routines. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parallel computation for biological sequence comparison: comparing a portable model to the native model for the Intel Hypercube.

PubMed

Nadkarni, P M; Miller, P L

1991-01-01

A parallel program for inter-database sequence comparison was developed on the Intel Hypercube using two models of parallel programming. One version was built using machine-specific Hypercube parallel programming commands. The other version was built using Linda, a machine-independent parallel programming language. The two versions of the program provide a case study comparing these two approaches to parallelization in an important biological application area. Benchmark tests with both programs gave comparable results with a small number of processors. As the number of processors was increased, the Linda version was somewhat less efficient. The Linda version was also run without change on Network Linda, a virtual parallel machine running on a network of desktop workstations.

Climate model diversity in the Northern Hemisphere Polar vortex response to climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, I.; Seager, R.; Hitchcock, P.; Cohen, N.

2017-12-01

Global climate models vary widely in their predictions of the future of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, with some showing a significant strengthening of the vortex, some showing a significant weakening and others displaying a response that is not outside of the range expected from internal variability alone. This inter-model spread in stratospheric predictions may account for some inter-model spread in tropospheric predictions with important implications for the storm tracks and regional climate change, particularly for the North Atlantic sector. Here, our current state of understanding of this model spread and its tropospheric impacts will be reviewed. Previous studies have proposed relationships between a models polar vortex response to climate change and its present day vortex climatology while others have demonstrated links between a models polar vortex response and changing wave activity coming up from the troposphere below under a warming climate. The extent to which these mechanisms can account for the spread in polar vortex changes exhibited by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 models will be assessed. In addition, preliminary results from a series of idealized experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model will be presented. In these experiments, nudging of the stratospheric zonal mean state has been imposed to mimic the inter-model spread in the polar vortex response to climate change so that the downward influence of the spread in zonal mean stratospheric responses on the tropospheric circulation can be assessed within one model.

Large-scale assessment of present day and future groundwater recharge and its sensitivity to climate variability in Europe's karst regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, A. J.; Gleeson, T. P.; Wagener, T.; Wada, Y.

2016-12-01

Karst aquifers in Europe are an important source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries. Karstic groundwater recharge is one of the most important components of the water balance of karst systems as it feeds the karst aquifers. Presently available large-scale hydrological models do not consider karst heterogeneity adequately. Projections of current and potential future groundwater recharge of Europe's karst aquifers are therefore unclear. In this study we compare simulations of present (1991-2010) and future (2080-2099) recharge using two different models to simulate groundwater recharge processes. One model includes karst processes (subsurface heterogeneity, lateral flow and concentrated recharge), while the other is based on the conceptual understanding of common hydrological systems (homogeneous subsurface, saturation excess overland flow). Both models are driven by the bias-corrected 5 GCMs of the ISI-MIP project (RCP8.5). To further assess sensitivity of groundwater recharge to climate variability, we calculate the elasticity of recharge rates to annual precipitation, temperature and average intensity of rainfall events, which is the median change of recharge that corresponds to the median change of these climate variables within the present and future time period, respectively. Our model comparison shows that karst regions over Europe have enhanced recharge rates with greater inter-annual variability compared to those with more homogenous subsurface properties. Furthermore, the heterogeneous representation shows stronger elasticity concerning climate variability than the homogeneous subsurface representation. This difference tends to increase towards the future. Our results suggest that water management in regions with heterogeneous subsurface can expect a higher water availability than estimated by most of the current large-scale simulations, while measures should be taken to prepare for increasingly variable groundwater recharge rates.

Enhanced recharge rates and altered recharge sensitivity to climate variability through subsurface heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Andreas; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Karst aquifers in Europe are an important source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries. Karstic groundwater recharge is one of the most important components of the water balance of karst systems as it feeds the karst aquifers. Presently available large-scale hydrological models do not consider karst heterogeneity adequately. Projections of current and potential future groundwater recharge of Europe's karst aquifers are therefore unclear. In this study we compare simulations of present (1991-2010) and future (2080-2099) recharge using two different models to simulate groundwater recharge processes. One model includes karst processes (subsurface heterogeneity, lateral flow and concentrated recharge), while the other is based on the conceptual understanding of common hydrological systems (homogeneous subsurface, saturation excess overland flow). Both models are driven by the bias-corrected 5 GCMs of the ISI-MIP project (RCP8.5). To further assess sensitivity of groundwater recharge to climate variability, we calculate the elasticity of recharge rates to annual precipitation, temperature and average intensity of rainfall events, which is the median change of recharge that corresponds to the median change of these climate variables within the present and future time period, respectively. Our model comparison shows that karst regions over Europe have enhanced recharge rates with greater inter-annual variability compared to those with more homogenous subsurface properties. Furthermore, the heterogeneous representation shows stronger elasticity concerning climate variability than the homogeneous subsurface representation. This difference tends to increase towards the future. Our results suggest that water management in regions with heterogeneous subsurface can expect a higher water availability than estimated by most of the current large-scale simulations, while measures should be taken to prepare for increasingly variable groundwater recharge rates.

A Comparison of Descriptive Tagging Practices by Library, Archive and Museum Professionals Using an Inter-Indexing Consistency Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Angel, Christine Marie

2012-01-01

This study is a comparison of the descriptive tagging practices among library, archive, and museum professionals using an inter-indexing consistency approach. The first purpose of this study was to determine the extent of the similarities and differences among professional groups when assigning descriptive tags to a wide variety of objects that…

An Inter-Industry Comparison of VET in Australian SMEs: Inter-Industry Comparison

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Janice

2006-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast the extent and nature of Vocational Education and Training (VET) vis-a-vis other forms of training in three size categories of small-to-medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from two industry sectors. Design/methodology/approach: The longitudinal panel data employed in this paper are drawn…

A New CCI ECV Release (v2.0) to Accurately Measure the Sea Level Change from space (1993-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, Jean-Francois; Benveniste, Jérôme

2017-04-01

Accurate monitoring of the sea level is required to better understand its variability and changes. Sea level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing a long-term homogeneous and accurate sea level record. The needs and feedback of the climate research community have been collected so that the development of the products is adapted to the users. A first version of the sea level ECV product has been generated during phase I of the project (2011-2013). Within phase II (2014-2016), the 15 partner consortium has prepared the production of a new reprocessed homogeneous and accurate altimeter sea level record which is now available (see http://www.esa-sealevel-cci.org/products ). New level 2 altimeter standards developed and tested within the project as well as external contributions have been identified, processed and evaluated by comparison with a reference for different altimeter missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 & 2, ERS-1 & 2, Envisat, GFO, SARAL/AltiKa and CryoSat-2). The main evolutions are associated with the wet troposphere correction (based on the GPD+ algorithm including inter calibration with respect to external sensors) but also to the orbit solutions (POE-E and GFZ15), the ERA-Interim based atmospheric corrections and the FES2014 ocean tide model. A new pole tide solution is used and anomalies are referenced to the MSS DTU15. The presentation will focus on the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level project and on the description of the new SL_cci ECV release covering 1993-2015. The major steps required to produce the reprocessed 23 year climate time series will be described. The impacts of the selected level 2 altimeter standards on the SL_cci ECV have been assessed on different spatial scales (global, regional, mesoscale) and temporal scales (long-term, inter-annual, periodic signals). A significant improvement is observed compared to the current v1.1, with the main impacts observed on the long-term evolution on decadal time scale, on global and regional scales, and for mesoscale signals. The results from product validation, carried out by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community will be also presented.

Ensemble formulation of surface fluxes and improvement in evapotranspiration and cloud parameterizations in a GCM. [General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Y. C.; Smith, W. E.

1984-01-01

The influence of some modifications to the parameters of the current general circulation model (GCM) is investigated. The aim of the modifications was to eliminate strong occasional bursts of oscillations in planetary boundary layer (PBL) fluxes. Smoothly varying bulk aerodynamic friction and heat transport coefficients were found by ensemble averaging of the PBL fluxes in the current GCM. A comparison was performed of the simulations of the modified model and the unmodified model. The comparison showed that the surface fluxes and cloudiness in the modified model simulations were much more accurate. The planetary albedo in the model was also realistic. Weaknesses persisted in the models positioning of the Inter-tropical convergence zone (ICTZ) and in the temperature estimates for polar regions. A second simulation of the model following reparametrization of the cloud data showed improved results and these are described in detail.

ENES the European Network for Earth System modelling and its infrastructure projects IS-ENES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guglielmo, Francesca; Joussaume, Sylvie; Parinet, Marie

2016-04-01

The scientific community working on climate modelling is organized within the European Network for Earth System modelling (ENES). In the past decade, several European university departments, research centres, meteorological services, computer centres, and industrial partners engaged in the creation of ENES with the purpose of working together and cooperating towards the further development of the network, by signing a Memorandum of Understanding. As of 2015, the consortium counts 47 partners. The climate modelling community, and thus ENES, faces challenges which are both science-driven, i.e. analysing of the full complexity of the Earth System to improve our understanding and prediction of climate changes, and have multi-faceted societal implications, as a better representation of climate change on regional scales leads to improved understanding and prediction of impacts and to the development and provision of climate services. ENES, promoting and endorsing projects and initiatives, helps in developing and evaluating of state-of-the-art climate and Earth system models, facilitates model inter-comparison studies, encourages exchanges of software and model results, and fosters the use of high performance computing facilities dedicated to high-resolution multi-model experiments. ENES brings together public and private partners, integrates countries underrepresented in climate modelling studies, and reaches out to different user communities, thus enhancing European expertise and competitiveness. In this need of sophisticated models, world-class, high-performance computers, and state-of-the-art software solutions to make efficient use of models, data and hardware, a key role is played by the constitution and maintenance of a solid infrastructure, developing and providing services to the different user communities. ENES has investigated the infrastructural needs and has received funding from the EU FP7 program for the IS-ENES (InfraStructure for ENES) phase I and II projects. We present here the case study of an existing network of institutions brought together toward common goals by a non-binding agreement, ENES, and of its two IS-ENES projects. These latter will be discussed in their double role as a means to provide and/or maintain the actual infrastructure (hardware, software, skilled human resources, services) to achieve ENES scientific goals -fulfilling the aims set in a strategy document-, but also to inform and provide to the network a structured way of working and of interacting with the extended community. The genesis and evolution of the network and the interaction network/projects will also be analysed in terms of long-term sustainability.

Practical methodological guide for hydrometric inter-laboratory organisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Besson, David; Bertrand, Xavier

2015-04-01

Discharge measurements performed by the French governmental hydrometer team feed a national database. This data is available for general river flows knowkedge, flood forecasting, low water survey, statistical calculations flow, control flow regulatory and many other uses. Regularly checking the measurements quality and better quantifying its accuracy is therefore an absolute need. The practice of inter-laboratory comparison in hydrometry particularly developed during the last decade. Indeed, discharge measurement can not easily be linked to a standard. Therefore, on-site measurement accuracy control is very difficult. Inter-laboratory comparison is thus a practical solution to this issue. However, it needs some regulations in order to ease its practice and legitimize its results. To do so, the French government hydrometrics teams produced a practical methodological guide for hydrometric inter-laboratory organisation in destination of hydrometers community in view of ensure the harmonization of inter-laboratory comparison practices for different materials (ADCP, current meter on wadind rod or gauging van, tracer dilution, surface speed) and flow range (flood, low water). Ensure the results formalization and banking. The realisation of this practice guide is grounded on the experience of the governmental teams & their partners (or fellows), following existing approaches (Doppler group especially). The guide is designated to validate compliance measures and identify outliers : Hardware, methodological, environmental, or human. Inter-laboratory comparison provides the means to verify the compliance of the instruments (devices + methods + operators) and provides methods to determine an experimental uncertainty of the tested measurement method which is valid only for the site and the measurement conditions but does not address the calibration or periodic monitoring of the few materials. After some conceptual definitions, the guide describes the different stages of an inter-comparison campaign: the campaing creation: targets, participants ( instruments type and number) and site preparation of test protocols and schedule; the campaign set-up (organization): invitation and pre-information of the participants, logistics, field preparation; the campaign conduct: participants reception and information, sequences of tests, results analysis and communication, balance sheet; post-campaign work: further analysis, dissemination and periodic verification of the instruments. This guide is associated with measurement instruments forms, reminding their limits and conditions for use, land forms, used to record all the necessary information during the inter-comparison campaign (site description and measurement conditions, equipment and its settings, and the set of measurements or intermediate calculations to the final results) as well as a calculation tool and banking measures and results.

Past and future weather-induced risk in crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, J. W.; Glotter, M.; Russo, T. A.; Sahoo, S.; Foster, I.; Benton, T.; Mueller, C.

2016-12-01

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather and may harm more people than any other consequence of climate change. Improvements in farming practices have dramatically increased crop productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation. We report here on a number of recent studies evaluating extreme event risk and impacts under historical and near future conditions, including studies conducted as part of the Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and the UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience.

Project Integration Architecture: Inter-Application Propagation of Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, William Henry

2005-01-01

A principal goal of the Project Integration Architecture (PIA) is to facilitate the meaningful inter-application transfer of application-value-added information. Such exchanging applications may be largely unrelated to each other except through their applicability to an overall project; however, the PIA effort recognizes as fundamental the need to make such applications cooperate despite wide disparaties either in the fidelity of the analyses carried out, or even the disciplines of the analysis. This paper discusses the approach and techniques applied and anticipated by the PIA project in treating this need.

A methodology aimed at fostering and sustaining the development processes of an IE-based industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corallo, Angelo; Errico, Fabrizio; de Maggio, Marco; Giangreco, Enza

In the current competitive scenario, where business relationships are fundamental in building successful business models and inter/intra organizational business processes are progressively digitalized, an end-to-end methodology is required that is capable of guiding business networks through the Internetworked Enterprise (IE) paradigm: a new and innovative organizational model able to leverage Internet technologies to perform real-time coordination of intra and inter-firm activities, to create value by offering innovative and personalized products/services and reduce transaction costs. This chapter presents the TEKNE project Methodology of change that guides business networks, by means of a modular and flexible approach, towards the IE techno-organizational paradigm, taking into account the competitive environment of the network and how this environment influences its strategic, organizational and technological levels. Contingency, the business model, enterprise architecture and performance metrics are the key concepts that form the cornerstone of this methodological framework.

Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

2015-01-01

In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming may notably modulate the ISM rainfall in future climate. Both extreme wet and dry episodes are likely to intensify and regionally extend in future climate with enhanced propensity of short active and long break spells. The SM (WM) could also be more wet (dry) in future due to the increment in longer active (break) spells. However, future changes in the spatial pattern during active/break phase of SM and WM are geographically inconsistent among the models. The results point out the growing climate-related vulnerability over Indian subcontinent, and further suggest the requisite of profound adaptation measures and better policy making in future.

Automatic benchmarking of homogenization packages applied to synthetic monthly series within the frame of the MULTITEST project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guijarro, José A.; López, José A.; Aguilar, Enric; Domonkos, Peter; Venema, Victor; Sigró, Javier; Brunet, Manola

2017-04-01

After the successful inter-comparison of homogenization methods carried out in the COST Action ES0601 (HOME), many methods kept improving their algorithms, suggesting the need of performing new inter-comparison exercises. However, manual applications of the methodologies to a large number of testing networks cannot be afforded without involving the work of many researchers over an extended time. The alternative is to make the comparisons as automatic as possible, as in the MULTITEST project, which, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, tests homogenization methods by applying them to a large number of synthetic networks of monthly temperature and precipitation. One hundred networks of 10 series were sampled from different master networks containing 100 series of 720 values (60 years times 12 months). Three master temperature networks were built with different degree of cross-correlations between the series in order to simulate conditions of different station densities or climatic heterogeneity. Also three master synthetic networks were developed for precipitation, this time mimicking the characteristics of three different climates: Atlantic temperate, Mediterranean and monsoonal. Inhomogeneities were introduced in every network sampled from the master networks, and all publicly available homogenization methods that we could run in an automatic way were applied to them: ACMANT 3.0, Climatol 3.0, MASH 3.03, RHTestV4, USHCN v52d and HOMER 2.6. Most of them were tested with different settings, and their comparative results can be inspected in box-plot graphics of Root Mean Squared Errors and trend biases computed between the homogenized data and their original homogeneous series. In a first stage, inhomogeneities were applied to the synthetic homogeneous series with five different settings with increasing difficulty and realism: i) big shifts in half of the series; ii) the same with a strong seasonality; iii) short term platforms and local trends; iv) random number of shifts with random size and location in all series; and v) the same plus seasonality of random amplitude. The shifts were additive for temperature and multiplicative for precipitation. The second stage is dedicated to study the impact of the number of series in the networks, seasonalities other than sinusoidal, and the occurrence of simultaneous shifts in a high number of series. Finally, tests will be performed on a longer and more realistic benchmark, with varying number of missing data along time, similar to that used in the COST Action ES0601. These inter-comparisons will be valuable both to the users and to the developers of the tested packages, who can see how their algorithms behave under varied climate conditions.

Becoming-in-the-World-with-Others: Inter-Act Theatre Workshop

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hellier-Tinoco, Ruth

2005-01-01

This article explores the concepts of Freire's "universal human ethic", Price and Shildrick's "becoming-in-the-world-with-others" and Foucault's "power in action". Although human relationships and behaviour may be regarded as intrinsic to most arts projects, the specific context of the Inter-Act project places the focus upon the very nature of…

Repeatability of a 3D multi-segment foot model during anterior and lateral step down tests.

PubMed

Lucareli, Paulo Roberto Garcia; Contani, Luciane Beatriz Grohs; Lima, Bruna; Rabelo, Nayra Deise dos Anjos; Ferreira, Cintia Lopes; Lima, Fernanda Pulpio Silva; Correa, João Carlos Ferrari; Politti, Fabiano

2016-01-01

The aim of the present study was to analyse the reproducibility of the Oxford Foot Model (OFM) when used with healthy adults during two clinical tests, i.e., the Anterior Step Down Test (SDA) and the Lateral Step Down Test (SDL). Five healthy participants (one male and four females, 10 limbs in total) with a mean age of 22.2 (19-30) years were assessed in four sessions of tests conducted at intervals of one week. Two independent examiners performed two of the sessions of each of the tests. For each session (intra-day), nine repetitions of each clinical test (SDA and SDL) were performed. After an interval of three hours, the data were collected again. The tests were conducted again after an interval of one week using the same experimental conditions. The intra- and inter-session repeatabilities of the ranges of motion of the feet were determined according to the standard error of measurement (SEM) for each examiner and for the differences between the examiners. The repeatabilities of the results were high for both of the conducted tests. The SEM results were as follows: 0.47-1.94° for the intra-examiner assessment (SDA), 0.55-2.01° for the inter-examiner comparison (SDA), 0.44-2.43° for the intra-examiner assessment (SDL), and 0.54-1.89° for the inter-examiner comparison (SDL). The OFM model was shown to be reproducible in terms of assessing the range of motion of healthy adults during functional tests (SDA and SDL). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of motor sequential learning according to practice schedules in healthy adults; distributed practice versus massed practice

PubMed Central

Kwon, Yong Hyun; Kwon, Jung Won; Lee, Myoung Hee

2015-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of the current study was to compare the effectiveness of motor sequential learning according to two different types of practice schedules, distributed practice schedule (two 12-hour inter-trial intervals) and massed practice schedule (two 10-minute inter-trial intervals) using a serial reaction time (SRT) task. [Subjects and Methods] Thirty healthy subjects were recruited and then randomly and evenly assigned to either the distributed practice group or the massed practice group. All subjects performed three consecutive sessions of the SRT task following one of the two different types of practice schedules. Distributed practice was scheduled for two 12-hour inter-session intervals including sleeping time, whereas massed practice was administered for two 10-minute inter-session intervals. Response time (RT) and response accuracy (RA) were measured in at pre-test, mid-test, and post-test. [Results] For RT, univariate analysis demonstrated significant main effects in the within-group comparison of the three tests as well as the interaction effect of two groups × three tests, whereas the between-group comparison showed no significant effect. The results for RA showed no significant differences in neither the between-group comparison nor the interaction effect of two groups × three tests, whereas the within-group comparison of the three tests showed a significant main effect. [Conclusion] Distributed practice led to enhancement of motor skill acquisition at the first inter-session interval as well as at the second inter-interval the following day, compared to massed practice. Consequentially, the results of this study suggest that a distributed practice schedule can enhance the effectiveness of motor sequential learning in 1-day learning as well as for two days learning formats compared to massed practice. PMID:25931727

A New IMS Based Inter-working Solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Zhongwen; Brunner, Richard

With the evolution of third generation network, more and more multimedia services are developed and deployed. Any new service to be deployed in IMS network is required to inter-work with existing Internet communities or legacy terminal users in order to appreciate the end users, who are the main drivers for the service to succeed. The challenge for Inter-working between IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) and non-IMS network is “how to handle recipient’s address”. This is because each network has its own routable address schema. For instance, the address for Google Talk user is xmpp:xyz@google.com, which is un-routable in IMS network. Hereafter a new Inter-working (IW) solution between IMS and non-IMS network is proposed for multimedia services that include Instant Messaging, Chat, and File transfer, etc. It is an end-to-end solution built on IMS infrastructure. The Public Service Identity (PSI) defined in 3GPP standard (3rd Generation Partnership Project) is used to allow terminal clients to allocate this IW service. When sending the SIP (Session Initial Protocol) request out for multimedia services, the terminal includes the recipient’s address in the payload instead of the “Request-URI” header. In the network, the proposed solution provides the mapping rules between different networks in MM-IW (Multimedia IW). The detailed technical description and the corresponding use cases are present. The comparison with other alternatives is made. The benefits of the proposed solution are highlighted.

SU-F-R-51: Radiomics in CT Perfusion Maps of Head and Neck Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nesteruk, M; Riesterer, O; Veit-Haibach, P

2016-06-15

Purpose: The aim of this study was to test the predictive value of radiomics features of CT perfusion (CTP) for tumor control, based on a preselection of radiomics features in a robustness study. Methods: 11 patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) and 11 patients with lung cancer were included in the robustness study to preselect stable radiomics parameters. Data from 36 HNC patients treated with definitive radiochemotherapy (median follow-up 30 months) was used to build a predictive model based on these parameters. All patients underwent pre-treatment CTP. 315 texture parameters were computed for three perfusion maps: blood volume, bloodmore » flow and mean transit time. The variability of texture parameters was tested with respect to non-standardizable perfusion computation factors (noise level and artery contouring) using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). The parameter with the highest ICC in the correlated group of parameters (inter-parameter Spearman correlations) was tested for its predictive value. The final model to predict tumor control was built using multivariate Cox regression analysis with backward selection of the variables. For comparison, a predictive model based on tumor volume was created. Results: Ten parameters were found to be stable in both HNC and lung cancer regarding potentially non-standardizable factors after the correction for inter-parameter correlations. In the multivariate backward selection of the variables, blood flow entropy showed a highly significant impact on tumor control (p=0.03) with concordance index (CI) of 0.76. Blood flow entropy was significantly lower in the patient group with controlled tumors at 18 months (p<0.1). The new model showed a higher concordance index compared to the tumor volume model (CI=0.68). Conclusion: The preselection of variables in the robustness study allowed building a predictive radiomics-based model of tumor control in HNC despite a small patient cohort. This model was found to be superior to the volume-based model. The project was supported by the KFSP Tumor Oxygenation of the University of Zurich, by a grant of the Center for Clinical Research, University and University Hospital Zurich and by a research grant from Merck (Schweiz) AG.« less

The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

PubMed Central

Meijers, A. J. S.

2014-01-01

The Southern Ocean is an important part of the global climate system, but its complex coupled nature makes both its present state and its response to projected future climate forcing difficult to model. Clear trends in wind, sea-ice extent and ocean properties emerged from multi-model intercomparison in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Here, we review recent analyses of the historical and projected wind, sea ice, circulation and bulk properties of the Southern Ocean in the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Improvements to the models include higher resolutions, more complex and better-tuned parametrizations of ocean mixing, and improved biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric chemistry. CMIP5 largely reproduces the findings of CMIP3, but with smaller inter-model spreads and biases. By the end of the twenty-first century, mid-latitude wind stresses increase and shift polewards. All water masses warm, and intermediate waters freshen, while bottom waters increase in salinity. Surface mixed layers shallow, warm and freshen, whereas sea ice decreases. The upper overturning circulation intensifies, whereas bottom water formation is reduced. Significant disagreement exists between models for the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength, for reasons that are as yet unclear. PMID:24891395

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2016-01-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996-2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

Climate Change Response of Ocean Net Primary Production (NPP) and Export Production (EP) Regulated by Stratification Increases in The CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, W.; Randerson, J. T.; Moore, J. K.

2014-12-01

Ocean warming due to rising atmospheric CO2 has increasing impacts on ocean ecosystems by modifying the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and by altering ocean circulation and stratification. We explore ocean NPP and EP changes at the global scale with simulations performed in the framework of the fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Global NPP and EP are reduced considerably by the end of the century for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, although models differ in their significantly in their direct temperature impacts on production and remineralization. The Earth system models used here project similar NPP trends albeit the magnitudes vary substantially. In general, projected changes in the 2090s for NPP range between -2.3 to -16.2% while export production reach -7 to -18% relative to 1990s. This is accompanied by increased stratification by 17-30%. Results indicate that globally reduced NPP is closely related to increased ocean stratification (R2=0.78). This is especially the case for global export production, that seems to be mostly controlled by the increased stratification (R2=0.95). We also identify phytoplankton community impacts on these patterns, that vary across the models. The negative response of NPP to climate change may be through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. There are large disagreements among the CMIP5 models in terms of simulated nutrient and oxygen concentrations for the 1990s, and their trends over time with climate change. In addition, potentially important marine biogeochemical feedbacks on the climate system were not well represented in the CMIP5 models, including important feedbacks with aerosol deposition and the marine iron cycle, and feedbacks involving the oxygen minimum zones and the marine nitrogen cycle. Thus, these substantial reductions in primary productivity and export production over the 21st century simulated under the RCP 8.5 scenario were likely conservative estimates, and may need to be revised as marine biogeochemistry in Earth System Models (ESMs) continues to be developed.

Patient safety in external beam radiotherapy, results of the ACCIRAD project: Recommendations for radiotherapy institutions and national authorities on assessing risks and analysing adverse error-events and near misses.

PubMed

Malicki, Julian; Bly, Ritva; Bulot, Mireille; Godet, Jean-Luc; Jahnen, Andreas; Krengli, Marco; Maingon, Philippe; Prieto Martin, Carlos; Skrobala, Agnieszka; Valero, Marc; Jarvinen, Hannu

2018-05-02

The ACCIRAD project, commissioned by the European Commission (EC) to develop guidelines for risk analysis of accidental and unintended exposures in external beam radiotherapy (EBRT), was completed in the year 2014. In 2015, the "General guidelines on risk management in external beam radiotherapy" were published as EC report Radiation Protection (RP)-181. The present document is the third and final report of the findings from the ACCIRAD project. The main aim of this paper is to describe the key features of the risk management process and to provide general guidelines for radiotherapy departments and national authorities on risk assessment and analysis of adverse error-events and near misses. The recommendations provided here and in EC report RP-181 are aimed at promoting the harmonisation of risk management systems across Europe, improving patient safety, and enabling more reliable inter-country comparisons. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated carbon budget models for the Everglades terrestrial-coastal-oceanic gradient: Current status and needs for inter-site comparisons

Treesearch

T. G. Troxler; E. Gaiser; J. Barr; J. D. Fuentes; R. Jaffe; D. L. Childers; L. Collado-Vides; V. H. Rivera-Monroy; E. Castaneda-Moya; W. Anderson; R. Chambers; M. Chen; C. Coronado-Molina; S. E. Davis; V. Engel; C. Fitz; J. Fourqurean; T. Frankovich; J. Kominoski; C. Madden; S. L. Malone; S. F. Oberbauer; P. Olivas; J. Richards; C. Saunders; J. Schedlbauer; L. J. Scinto; F. Sklar; T. Smith; J. M. Smoak; G. Starr; R. R. Twilley; K. Whelan

2013-01-01

Recent studies suggest that coastal ecosystems can bury significantly more C than tropical forests, indicating that continued coastal development and exposure to sea level rise and storms will have global biogeochemical consequences. The Florida Coastal Everglades Long Term Ecological Research (FCE LTER) site provides an excellent subtropical system for examining...

Barriers of inter-organisational integration in vocational rehabilitation.

PubMed

Wihlman, Ulla; Lundborg, Cecilia Stålsby; Axelsson, Runo; Holmström, Inger

2008-06-19

A project of vocational rehabilitation was studied in Sweden between 1999 and 2002. The project included four public organisations: the social insurance office, the local health services, the municipal social service and the office of the state employment service. The aim of this paper was to analyse perceived barriers in the development of inter-organisational integration. Theories of inter-professional and inter-organisational integration, and theories on organisational change. In total, 51 semi-structured interviews and 14 focus group discussions were performed with actors within the project between 1999 and 2002. A thematic approach was used for the analysis of the data. THREE DIFFERENT MAIN THEMES OF BARRIERS EMERGED FROM THE DATA: A Uncertainty, B Prioritising own organisation and C Lack of communication. The themes are interconnected in an intricate web and hence not mutually exclusive. The barriers found are all related partly to organisational change in general and partly to the specific development of organisational integration. Prioritising of own organisation led to flaws in communication, which in turn led to a high degree of uncertainty within the project. This can be seen as a circular relationship, since uncertainty might increase focus on own organisation and lack of communication. A way to overcome these barriers would be to take the needs of the clients as a point of departure in the development of joint services and to also involve them in the development of inter-organisational integration.

Multi-criteria Evaluation of Discharge Simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.; Piao, S.; Zeng, Z.; Ciais, P.; Yin, Y.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sitch, S.; Ahlström, A.; Guimberteau, M.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Huang, M.; Li, Y.; Li, X.; Lomas, M.; Peylin, P. P.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Zhao, F.; Wang, L.

2015-12-01

In this study, we assessed the performance of discharge simulations by coupling the runoff from seven Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; LPJ, ORCHIDEE, Sheffield-DGVM, TRIFFID, LPJ-GUESS, CLM4CN, and OCN) to one river routing model for 16 large river basins. The results show that the seasonal cycle of river discharge is generally modelled well in the low and mid latitudes, but not in the high latitudes, where the peak discharge (due to snow and ice melting) is underestimated. For the annual mean discharge, the DGVMs chained with the routing model show an underestimation. Furthermore the 30-year trend of discharge is also under-estimated. For the inter-annual variability of discharge, a skill score based on overlapping of probability density functions (PDFs) suggests that most models correctly reproduce the observed variability (correlation coefficient higher than 0.5; i.e. models account for 50% of observed inter-annual variability) except for the Lena, Yenisei, Yukon, and the Congo river basins. In addition, we compared the simulated runoff from different simulations where models were forced with either fixed or varying land use. This suggests that both seasonal and annual mean runoff has been little affected by land use change, but that the trend itself of runoff is sensitive to land use change. None of the models when considered individually show significantly better performances than any other and in all basins. This suggests that based on current modelling capability, a regional-weighted average of multi-model ensemble projections might be appropriate to reduce the bias in future projection of global river discharge.

Arctic cities and climate change: climate-induced changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Streletskiy, Dmitry; Swales, Timothy

2014-05-01

Planned socio-economic development during the Soviet period promoted migration into the Arctic and work force consolidation in urbanized settlements to support mineral resources extraction and transportation industries. These policies have resulted in very high level of urbanization in the Soviet Arctic. Despite the mass migration from the northern regions during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the diminishing government support, the Russian Arctic population remains predominantly urban. In five Russian Administrative regions underlined by permafrost and bordering the Arctic Ocean 66 to 82% (depending on region) of the total population is living in Soviet-era urban communities. The political, economic and demographic changes in the Russian Arctic over the last 20 years are further complicated by climate change which is greatly amplified in the Arctic region. One of the most significant impacts of climate change on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. The majority of structures in the Russian Arctic are built according to the passive principle, which promotes equilibrium between the permafrost thermal regime and infrastructure foundations. This presentation is focused on quantitative assessment of potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to ongoing and future climatic changes using permafrost - geotechnical model forced by GCM-projected climate. To address the uncertainties in GCM projections we have utilized results from 6 models participated in most recent IPCC model inter-comparison project. The analysis was conducted for entire extent of Russian permafrost-affected area and on several representative urban communities. Our results demonstrate that significant observed reduction in urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian Arctic can be attributed to climatic changes and that projected future climatic changes will further negatively affect communities on permafrost. However, the uncertainties in magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of projected climate change produced by individual GCMs translate to substantial variability of the future state of infrastructure built on permafrost.

ETS-5, ETS-6, and COMETS projects in Japan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iida, Takashi; Wakana, Hiromitsu; Obara, Noriaki

1992-01-01

Three satellite communication projects now in progress in Japan are described. The first is a project to establish a telecommunication network for tele-education, TV conference, and tele-medicine in the Asia-Pacific region by using the Japan's Engineering Test Satellite-5 (ETS-5). The second is a project of the ETS-6 satellite, to be launched in 1993, for inter-satellite communication, mobile and fixed communication, and millimeter wave personal communication experiments. The third is a project of the Communications and Broadcasting Engineering Test Satellite (COMETS), to be launched in 1997, for advanced mobile satellite communication, inter-satellite link, and advanced broadcasting experiments at higher frequencies.

Comparing the Degree of Land-Atmosphere Interaction in Four Atmospheric General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Ijpelaar, Ruben; Tyahla, Lori; Cox, Peter; Suarez, Max J.; Houser, Paul R. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Land-atmosphere feedback, by which (for example) precipitation-induced moisture anomalies at the land surface affect the overlying atmosphere and thereby the subsequent generation of precipitation, has been examined and quantified with many atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). Generally missing from such studies, however, is an indication of the extent to which the simulated feedback strength is model dependent. Four modeling groups have recently performed a highly controlled numerical experiment that allows an objective inter-model comparison of land-atmosphere feedback strength. The experiment essentially consists of an ensemble of simulations in which each member simulation artificially maintains the same time series of surface prognostic variables. Differences in atmospheric behavior between the ensemble members then indicates the degree to which the state of the land surface controls atmospheric processes in that model. A comparison of the four sets of experimental results shows that feedback strength does indeed vary significantly between the AGCMs.

Establishment of IDF-curves for precipitation in the tropical area of Central Africa - comparison of techniques and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohymont, B.; Demarée, G. R.; Faka, D. N.

2004-05-01

The establishment of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for precipitation remains a powerful tool in the risk analysis of natural hazards. Indeed the IDF-curves allow for the estimation of the return period of an observed rainfall event or conversely of the rainfall amount corresponding to a given return period for different aggregation times. There is a high need for IDF-curves in the tropical region of Central Africa but unfortunately the adequate long-term data sets are frequently not available. The present paper assesses IDF-curves for precipitation for three stations in Central Africa. More physically based models for the IDF-curves are proposed. The methodology used here has been advanced by Koutsoyiannis et al. (1998) and an inter-station and inter-technique comparison is being carried out. The IDF-curves for tropical Central Africa are an interesting tool to be used in sewer system design to combat the frequently occurring inundations in semi-urbanized and urbanized areas of the Kinshasa megapolis.

The Latest SORCE Solar Spectral Irradiance Data Release: Inter-Comparison and a First Look at TSIS SIM Measurement.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beland, S.; Sandoval, L.; Vanier, B.; Elliott, J.; Harder, J. W.; Snow, M. A.; Woods, T. N.; Richard, E. C.; Pilewskie, P.

2017-12-01

The Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM), the SOLar STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE), and the XUV Photometer System (XPS) instruments on board the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission have been taking daily Solar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements since April 2003. We present the latest data releases from these instruments, describing the improvements in the new datasets and the trends measured during Solar cycles 23 and 24. An inter-comparison of the SSI over the overlapping wavelengths for SIM and SOLSTICE is presented as well as, if the data is available, a comparison with the first light measurements from TSIS-SIM.

Global ozone and air quality: a multi-model assessment of risks to human health and crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellingsen, K.; Gauss, M.; van Dingenen, R.; Dentener, F. J.; Emberson, L.; Fiore, A. M.; Schultz, M. G.; Stevenson, D. S.; Ashmore, M. R.; Atherton, C. S.; Bergmann, D. J.; Bey, I.; Butler, T.; Drevet, J.; Eskes, H.; Hauglustaine, D. A.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Horowitz, L. W.; Krol, M.; Lamarque, J. F.; Lawrence, M. G.; van Noije, T.; Pyle, J.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.; Savage, N.; Strahan, S.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Wild, O.

2008-02-01

Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, eighteen atmospheric models from the U.S., Europe, and Japan calculated present (2000) and future (2030) concentrations of ozone at the Earth's surface with hourly temporal resolution. Comparison of model results with surface ozone measurements in 14 world regions indicates that levels and seasonality of surface ozone in North America and Europe are characterized well by global models, with annual average biases typically within 5-10 nmol/mol. However, comparison with rather sparse observations over some regions suggest that most models overestimate annual ozone by 15-20 nmol/mol in some locations. Two scenarios from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and one from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) have been implemented in the models. This study focuses on changes in near-surface ozone and their effects on human health and vegetation. Different indices and air quality standards are used to characterise air quality. We show that often the calculated changes in the different indices are closely inter-related. Indices using lower thresholds are more consistent between the models, and are recommended for global model analysis. Our analysis indicates that currently about two-thirds of the regions considered do not meet health air quality standards, whereas only 2-4 regions remain below the threshold. Calculated air quality exceedances show moderate deterioration by 2030 if current emissions legislation is followed and slight improvements if current emissions reduction technology is used optimally. For the "business as usual" scenario severe air quality problems are predicted. We show that model simulations of air quality indices are particularly sensitive to how well ozone is represented, and improved accuracy is needed for future projections. Additional measurements are needed to allow a more quantitative assessment of the risks to human health and vegetation from changing levels of surface ozone.

Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.

PubMed

de Jong, Pieter; Tanajura, Clemente Augusto Souza; Sánchez, Antonio Santos; Dargaville, Roger; Kiperstok, Asher; Torres, Ednildo Andrade

2018-09-01

By the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25-50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961-90 long-term average. Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been below its long-term average every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be even more severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC high emissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Global Look at Future Trends in the Renewable Energy Resource

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S.; Freedman, J. M.; Kirk-Davidoff, D. B.; Brower, M.

2017-12-01

With the aggressive deployment of utility-scale and distributed generation of wind and solar energy systems, an accurate estimate of the uncertainty associated with future resource trends and plant performance is crucial in maintaining financial integrity in the renewable energy markets. With continuing concerns regarding climate change, the move towards energy resiliency, and the cost-competitiveness of renewables, a rapidly expanding fleet of utility-scale wind and solar power facilities and distributed generation of both resources is now being incorporated into the electric distribution grid. Although solar and wind account for about 3% of global power production, renewable energy is now and will continue to be the world's fastest-growing energy source. With deeper penetration of renewables, confidence in future power production output on a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales is crucial to grid stability for long-term planning and achieving national and international targets in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we use output from a diverse subset of Earth System Models (Climate Model Inter-comparison Project-Phase 5 members) to produce projected trends and uncertainties in regional and global seasonal and inter-annual wind and solar power production and respective capacity factors through the end of the 21st century. Our trends and uncertainty analysis focuses on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. For wind and solar energy production estimates, we extract surface layer wind (extrapolated to hub height), irradiance, cloud fraction, and temperature (air temperature affects density [hence wind power production] and the efficiency of photovoltaic [PV] systems), output from the CMIP5 ensemble mean fields for the period 2020 - 2099 and an historical baseline for POR of 1986 - 2005 (compared with long-term observations and the ERA-Interim Reanalysis). Results include representative statistics such as the standard deviation (as determined from the slopes of the trend lines for individual CMIP5 members), means, medians (e.g. P50 values) and percent change, trends analysis on time series for each variable, and creation of global maps of trends (% change per year) and changes in capacity factors for both estimated solar and wind power production.

Making Together: An Interdisciplinary, Inter-institutional Assistive-Technology Project.

PubMed

Reiser, Susan; Bruce, Rebecca; Martin, Jackson; Skidmore, Brent

2017-01-01

Faculty at the University of North Carolina Asheville partnered with local healthcare professionals and retirement home residents and administrators on an assistive-technology project. The Creative Fabrication introductory computer science course incorporated subject-matter experts from the healthcare community, older and differently abled "users," medical students, and sculpture faculty. Over the semester, the class students created assistive devices to meet the needs of the retirement home residents. They prototyped their designs in foam and 3D modeling software and cast parts of their design in bronze or aluminum. User-centered design, the design process, and the importance of form and function were emphasized throughout the project.

Multi-model projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes under A1B scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, X.; Wang, S.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, the projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes are constructed using three global climate models (GCMs) and seven regional climate models (RCMs) during 2041-2060 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario. For the control climate of 1981-2000, most nested RCMs show advantage over the driving GCM of European Centre/Hamburg Fifth Generation (ECHAM5) in the temporal-spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation over Indian Peninsula. Following the driving GCM of ECHAM5, most nested RCMs produce advanced monsoon onset in the control climate. For future climate widespread summer warming is projected over Indian Peninsula by all climate models, with the Multi-RCMs ensemble mean (MME) temperature increasing of 1°C to 2.5°C and the maximum warming center located in northern Indian Peninsula. While for the precipitation, a large inter-model spread is projected by RCMs, with wetter condition in MME projections and significant increase over southern India. Driven by the same GCM, most RCMs project advanced monsoon onset while delayed onset is found in two Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) projections, indicating uncertainty can be expected in the Indian Summer Monsoon onset. All climate models except Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model with equal resolution (referred as CCAMP) and two RegCM3 models project stronger summer monsoon during 2041-2060. The disagreement in precipitation projections by RCMs indicates that the surface climate change on regional scale is not only dominated by the large-scale forcing which is provided by driving GCM but also sensitive to RCM' internal physics.

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

PubMed Central

Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Frieler, Katja; Konzmann, Markus; Gerten, Dieter; Glotter, Michael; Flörke, Martina; Wada, Yoshihide; Best, Neil; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M.; Folberth, Christian; Foster, Ian; Gosling, Simon N.; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Khabarov, Nikolay; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Olin, Stefan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required. PMID:24344283

The Cosmetics Europe strategy for animal-free genotoxicity testing: project status up-date.

PubMed

Pfuhler, S; Fautz, R; Ouedraogo, G; Latil, A; Kenny, J; Moore, C; Diembeck, W; Hewitt, N J; Reisinger, K; Barroso, J

2014-02-01

The Cosmetics Europe (formerly COLIPA) Genotoxicity Task Force has driven and funded three projects to help address the high rate of misleading positives in in vitro genotoxicity tests: The completed "False Positives" project optimized current mammalian cell assays and showed that the predictive capacity of the in vitro micronucleus assay was improved dramatically by selecting more relevant cells and more sensitive toxicity measures. The on-going "3D skin model" project has been developed and is now validating the use of human reconstructed skin (RS) models in combination with the micronucleus (MN) and Comet assays. These models better reflect the in use conditions of dermally applied products, such as cosmetics. Both assays have demonstrated good inter- and intra-laboratory reproducibility and are entering validation stages. The completed "Metabolism" project investigated enzyme capacities of human skin and RS models. The RS models were shown to have comparable metabolic capacity to native human skin, confirming their usefulness for testing of compounds with dermal exposure. The program has already helped to improve the initial test battery predictivity and the RS projects have provided sound support for their use as a follow-up test in the assessment of the genotoxic hazard of cosmetic ingredients in the absence of in vivo data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parallel computation for biological sequence comparison: comparing a portable model to the native model for the Intel Hypercube.

PubMed Central

Nadkarni, P. M.; Miller, P. L.

1991-01-01

A parallel program for inter-database sequence comparison was developed on the Intel Hypercube using two models of parallel programming. One version was built using machine-specific Hypercube parallel programming commands. The other version was built using Linda, a machine-independent parallel programming language. The two versions of the program provide a case study comparing these two approaches to parallelization in an important biological application area. Benchmark tests with both programs gave comparable results with a small number of processors. As the number of processors was increased, the Linda version was somewhat less efficient. The Linda version was also run without change on Network Linda, a virtual parallel machine running on a network of desktop workstations. PMID:1807632

Comparison and applicability analysis of models for estimating radiological dose rates of freshwater biota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaofeng; Yang, Zongzhen; Qin, Chunli

2018-01-01

A number of inter-comparisons of non-human biota radiation assessment models have been fulfilled by international researchers and organizations. This paper describes the radiological impact to reference biota in Chinese inland nuclear power plant scenario, by using RESRAD-Biota, ERICA and R&D 128. The estimation results are ranging from 6.1×10-3μGy/h to 6.17×10-2μGy/h, mainly contributed by 134Cs and 137Cs, obviously below recommended limits and thus prove the biota in reservoir can be adequately protected from effluent discharge. By comparing models characteristics and performances in exercise, we conclude the ERICA tool reveals more applicability in Chinese nuclear sites and propose several suggestions to establish native framework for non-human biota assessment.

Inter-technique validation of tropospheric slant total delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kačmařík, Michal; Douša, Jan; Dick, Galina; Zus, Florian; Brenot, Hugues; Möller, Gregor; Pottiaux, Eric; Kapłon, Jan; Hordyniec, Paweł; Václavovic, Pavel; Morel, Laurent

2017-06-01

An extensive validation of line-of-sight tropospheric slant total delays (STD) from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), ray tracing in numerical weather prediction model (NWM) fields and microwave water vapour radiometer (WVR) is presented. Ten GNSS reference stations, including collocated sites, and almost 2 months of data from 2013, including severe weather events were used for comparison. Seven institutions delivered their STDs based on GNSS observations processed using 5 software programs and 11 strategies enabling to compare rather different solutions and to assess the impact of several aspects of the processing strategy. STDs from NWM ray tracing came from three institutions using three different NWMs and ray-tracing software. Inter-techniques evaluations demonstrated a good mutual agreement of various GNSS STD solutions compared to NWM and WVR STDs. The mean bias among GNSS solutions not considering post-fit residuals in STDs was -0.6 mm for STDs scaled in the zenith direction and the mean standard deviation was 3.7 mm. Standard deviations of comparisons between GNSS and NWM ray-tracing solutions were typically 10 mm ± 2 mm (scaled in the zenith direction), depending on the NWM model and the GNSS station. Comparing GNSS versus WVR STDs reached standard deviations of 12 mm ± 2 mm also scaled in the zenith direction. Impacts of raw GNSS post-fit residuals and cleaned residuals on optimal reconstructing of GNSS STDs were evaluated at inter-technique comparison and for GNSS at collocated sites. The use of raw post-fit residuals is not generally recommended as they might contain strong systematic effects, as demonstrated in the case of station LDB0. Simplified STDs reconstructed only from estimated GNSS tropospheric parameters, i.e. without applying post-fit residuals, performed the best in all the comparisons; however, it obviously missed part of tropospheric signals due to non-linear temporal and spatial variations in the troposphere. Although the post-fit residuals cleaned of visible systematic errors generally showed a slightly worse performance, they contained significant tropospheric signal on top of the simplified model. They are thus recommended for the reconstruction of STDs, particularly during high variability in the troposphere. Cleaned residuals also showed a stable performance during ordinary days while containing promising information about the troposphere at low-elevation angles.

WEC3: Wave Energy Converter Code Comparison Project: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Combourieu, Adrien; Lawson, Michael; Babarit, Aurelien

This paper describes the recently launched Wave Energy Converter Code Comparison (WEC3) project and present preliminary results from this effort. The objectives of WEC3 are to verify and validate numerical modelling tools that have been developed specifically to simulate wave energy conversion devices and to inform the upcoming IEA OES Annex VI Ocean Energy Modelling Verification and Validation project. WEC3 is divided into two phases. Phase 1 consists of a code-to-code verification and Phase II entails code-to-experiment validation. WEC3 focuses on mid-fidelity codes that simulate WECs using time-domain multibody dynamics methods to model device motions and hydrodynamic coefficients to modelmore » hydrodynamic forces. Consequently, high-fidelity numerical modelling tools, such as Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics simulation, and simple frequency domain modelling tools were not included in the WEC3 project.« less

Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in summer precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea: a multi-RCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Jin, Jonghun; Lee, Ji-Woo; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Joh, Minsu

2017-12-01

This study examines future changes in precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea using five regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by single global climate model (GCM) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios. Focusing on summer season (June-July-August) when heavy rains dominate in this region, future changes in precipitation and associated variables including temperature, moisture, and winds are analyzed by comparing future conditions (2071-2100) with a present climate (1981-2005). Physical mechanisms are examined by analyzing moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa level, which is found to have a close relationship to precipitation and by assessing contribution of thermodynamic effect (TH, moisture increase due to warming) and dynamic effect (DY, atmospheric circulation change) to changes in the moisture flux convergence. Overall background warming and moistening are projected over the Northeast Asia with a good inter-RCM agreement, indicating dominant influence of the driving GCM. Also, RCMs consistently project increases in the frequency of heavy rains and the intensification of extreme precipitation over South Korea. Analysis of moisture flux convergence reveals competing impacts between TH and DY. The TH effect contributes to the overall increases in mean precipitation over Northeast Asia and in extreme precipitation over South Korea, irrespective of models and scenarios. However, DY effect is found to induce local-scale precipitation decreases over the central part of the Korean Peninsula with large inter-RCM and inter-scenario differences. Composite analysis of daily anomaly synoptic patterns indicates that extreme precipitation events are mainly associated with the southwest to northeast evolution of large-scale low-pressure system in both present and future climates.

The Los Angeles County Community Disaster Resilience Project - a community-level, public health initiative to build community disaster resilience.

PubMed

Eisenman, David; Chandra, Anita; Fogleman, Stella; Magana, Aizita; Hendricks, Astrid; Wells, Ken; Williams, Malcolm; Tang, Jennifer; Plough, Alonzo

2014-08-19

Public health officials need evidence-based methods for improving community disaster resilience and strategies for measuring results. This methods paper describes how one public health department is addressing this problem. This paper provides a detailed description of the theoretical rationale, intervention design and novel evaluation of the Los Angeles County Community Disaster Resilience Project (LACCDR), a public health program for increasing community disaster resilience. The LACCDR Project utilizes a pretest-posttest method with control group design. Sixteen communities in Los Angeles County were selected and randomly assigned to the experimental community resilience group or the comparison group. Community coalitions in the experimental group receive training from a public health nurse trained in community resilience in a toolkit developed for the project. The toolkit is grounded in theory and uses multiple components to address education, community engagement, community and individual self-sufficiency, and partnerships among community organizations and governmental agencies. The comparison communities receive training in traditional disaster preparedness topics of disaster supplies and emergency communication plans. Outcome indicators include longitudinal changes in inter-organizational linkages among community organizations, community member responses in table-top exercises, and changes in household level community resilience behaviors and attitudes. The LACCDR Project is a significant opportunity and effort to operationalize and meaningfully measure factors and strategies to increase community resilience. This paper is intended to provide public health and academic researchers with new tools to conduct their community resilience programs and evaluation research. Results are not yet available and will be presented in future reports.

The Los Angeles County Community Disaster Resilience Project — A Community-Level, Public Health Initiative to Build Community Disaster Resilience

PubMed Central

Eisenman, David; Chandra, Anita; Fogleman, Stella; Magana, Aizita; Hendricks, Astrid; Wells, Ken; Williams, Malcolm; Tang, Jennifer; Plough, Alonzo

2014-01-01

Public health officials need evidence-based methods for improving community disaster resilience and strategies for measuring results. This methods paper describes how one public health department is addressing this problem. This paper provides a detailed description of the theoretical rationale, intervention design and novel evaluation of the Los Angeles County Community Disaster Resilience Project (LACCDR), a public health program for increasing community disaster resilience. The LACCDR Project utilizes a pretest–posttest method with control group design. Sixteen communities in Los Angeles County were selected and randomly assigned to the experimental community resilience group or the comparison group. Community coalitions in the experimental group receive training from a public health nurse trained in community resilience in a toolkit developed for the project. The toolkit is grounded in theory and uses multiple components to address education, community engagement, community and individual self-sufficiency, and partnerships among community organizations and governmental agencies. The comparison communities receive training in traditional disaster preparedness topics of disaster supplies and emergency communication plans. Outcome indicators include longitudinal changes in inter-organizational linkages among community organizations, community member responses in table-top exercises, and changes in household level community resilience behaviors and attitudes. The LACCDR Project is a significant opportunity and effort to operationalize and meaningfully measure factors and strategies to increase community resilience. This paper is intended to provide public health and academic researchers with new tools to conduct their community resilience programs and evaluation research. Results are not yet available and will be presented in future reports. PMID:25153472

Projected Climate Impacts to South African Maize and Wheat Production in 2055: A Comparison of Empirical and Mechanistic Modeling Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Lyndon D.; Beukes, Hein; Bradley, Bethany A.; Debats, Stephanie R.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Ruane, Alex C.; Schulze, Roland; Tadross, Mark

2013-01-01

Crop model-specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs' median-projected maize and wheat yield changes were 3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water-use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO2 accounted for much of the EMMM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EMMM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop-climate response uncertainties.

A custom tailored model to investigate skin penetration in porcine skin and its comparison with human skin.

PubMed

Herbig, Michael E; Houdek, Pia; Gorissen, Sascha; Zorn-Kruppa, Michaela; Wladykowski, Ewa; Volksdorf, Thomas; Grzybowski, Stephan; Kolios, Georgios; Willers, Christoph; Mallwitz, Henning; Moll, Ingrid; Brandner, Johanna M

2015-09-01

Reliable models for the determination of skin penetration and permeation are important for the development of new drugs and formulations. The intention of our study was to develop a skin penetration model which (1) is viable and well supplied with nutrients during the period of the experiment (2) is mimicking human skin as far as possible, but still is independent from the problems of supply and heterogeneity, (3) can give information about the penetration into different compartments of the skin and (4) considers specific inter-individual differences in skin thickness. In addition, it should be quick and inexpensive (5) and without ethical implications (6). Using a chemically divers set of four topically approved active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), namely diclofenac, metronidazole, tazarotene, and terbinafine, we demonstrated that the model allows reliable determination of drug concentrations in different layers of the viable epidermis and dermis. For APIs susceptible for skin metabolism, the extent of metabolic transformation in epidermis and dermis can be monitored. Furthermore, a high degree of accordance in the ability for discrimination of skin concentrations of the substances in different layers was found in models derived from porcine and human skin. Viability, proliferation, differentiation and markers for skin barrier function were surveyed in the model. This model, which we call 'Hamburg model of skin penetration' is particularly suited to support a rational ranking and selection of dermatological formulations within drug development projects. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Description of ARCAL XXXIV Project: Repair and Calibration of Electrometers and Ionization Chambers Used in Radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz-Estrada, P.; Ramírez-Jiménez, F. J.; Villaverde-Lozano, A.

2003-09-01

The technological tools for the diagnosis of diseases and treatment of cancer are based mostly on the use of ionizing radiations. This situation worries to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has implemented programs of technical cooperation for the protection of the human health. One of these programs is running in Latin America under the ARCAL project (Regional Agreement of Cooperation for the Promotion of the Nuclear Science and Technology in Latin America and the Caribbean). One objective of the ARCAL XXXIV project is the establishment of three Regional Centres for the repair, maintenance and electrical calibration of clinical dosimeters, in Mexico we have one of these centres. Some other objectives of the project are: the generation of calibration procedures, the release of training courses in the region, the establishment of an inter-comparison network for the region in the control of standards of calibration with electrometers and the design of low current sources that simulates the ionization chamber and can serve as field standards for each of the participant countries. A description of the results of the project is presented in this work.

Multi-Hypothesis Modelling Capabilities for Robust Data-Model Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, A. P.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Lu, D.; Medlyn, B.; Norby, R. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.; Weston, D. J.; Ye, M.; Zaehle, S.

2017-12-01

Large uncertainty is often inherent in model predictions due to imperfect knowledge of how to describe the mechanistic processes (hypotheses) that a model is intended to represent. Yet this model hypothesis uncertainty (MHU) is often overlooked or informally evaluated, as methods to quantify and evaluate MHU are limited. MHU is increased as models become more complex because each additional processes added to a model comes with inherent MHU as well as parametric unceratinty. With the current trend of adding more processes to Earth System Models (ESMs), we are adding uncertainty, which can be quantified for parameters but not MHU. Model inter-comparison projects do allow for some consideration of hypothesis uncertainty but in an ad hoc and non-independent fashion. This has stymied efforts to evaluate ecosystem models against data and intepret the results mechanistically because it is not simple to interpret exactly why a model is producing the results it does and identify which model assumptions are key as they combine models of many sub-systems and processes, each of which may be conceptualised and represented mathematically in various ways. We present a novel modelling framework—the multi-assumption architecture and testbed (MAAT)—that automates the combination, generation, and execution of a model ensemble built with different representations of process. We will present the argument that multi-hypothesis modelling needs to be considered in conjunction with other capabilities (e.g. the Predictive Ecosystem Analyser; PecAn) and statistical methods (e.g. sensitivity anaylsis, data assimilation) to aid efforts in robust data model integration to enhance our predictive understanding of biological systems.

Stratospheric water vapor and ozone evaluation in reanalyses as part of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, S. M.; Hegglin, M. I.; Fujiwara, M.; Manney, G. L.; Dragani, R.; Nash, E.; Tegtmeier, S.; Kobayashi, C.; Harada, Y.; Long, C. S.; Wargan, K.; Rosenlof, K. H.

2017-12-01

Reanalyses are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. Here we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. For times when vertically resolved observations are not assimilated, biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses. In contrast to O3, reanalysis stratospheric WV fields are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore dependent on the reanalyses' representation of processes that influence stratospheric WV, such as tropical tropopause layer temperatures and methane oxidation. The lack of assimilated observations and known deficiencies in the representation of stratospheric transport in reanalyses result in much poorer agreement amongst observational and reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV. Hence, stratospheric WV products from the current generation of reanalyses should generally not be used in scientific studies.

AG Channel Measurement and Modeling Results for Over-Water and Hilly Terrain Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matolak, David W.; Sun, Ruoyu

2015-01-01

This report describes work completed over the past year on our project, entitled "Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Research: The AG Channel, Robust Waveforms, and Aeronautical Network Simulations." This project is funded under the NASA project "Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the National Airspace System (NAS)." In this report we provide the following: an update on project progress; a description of the over-freshwater and hilly terrain initial results on path loss, delay spread, small-scale fading, and correlations; complete path loss models for the over-water AG channels; analysis for obtaining parameter statistics required for development of accurate wideband AG channel models; and analysis of an atypical AG channel in which the aircraft flies out of the ground site antenna main beam. We have modeled the small-scale fading of these channels with Ricean statistics, and have quantified the behavior of the Ricean K-factor. We also provide some results for correlations of signal components, both intra-band and inter-band. An updated literature review, and a summary that also describes future work, are also included.

SU-E-J-133: Evaluation of Inter- and Intra-Fractional Pancreas Tumor Residual Motions with Abdominal Compression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Y; Shi, F; Tian, Z

2014-06-01

Purpose: Abdominal compression (AC) has been widely used to reduce pancreas motion due to respiration for pancreatic cancer patients undergoing stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT). However, the inter-fractional and intra-fractional patient motions may degrade the treatment. The purpose of this work is to study daily CBCT projections and 4DCT to evaluate the inter-fractional and intra-fractional pancreatic motions. Methods: As a standard of care at our institution, 4D CT scan was performed for treatment planning. At least two CBCT scans were performed for daily treatment. Retrospective studies were performed on patients with implanted internal fiducial markers or surgical clips. The initial motionmore » pattern was obtained by extracting marker positions on every phase of 4D CT images. Daily motions were presented by marker positions on CBCT scan projection images. An adaptive threshold segmentation algorithm was used to extract maker positions. Both marker average positions and motion ranges were compared among three sets of scans, 4D CT, positioning CBCT, and conformal CBCT, for inter-fractional and intra-fractional motion variations. Results: Data from four pancreatic cancer patients were analyzed. These patients had three fiducial markers implanted. All patients were treated by an Elekta Synergy with single fraction SBRT. CBCT projections were acquired by XVI. Markers were successfully detected on most of the projection images. The inter-fractional changes were determined by 4D CT and the first CBCT while the intra-fractional changes were determined by multiple CBCT scans. It is found that the average motion range variations are within 2 mm, however, the average marker positions may drift by 6.5 mm. Conclusion: The patients respiratory motion variation for pancreas SBRT with AC was evaluated by detecting markers from CBCT projections and 4DCT, both the inter-fraction and intra-fraction motion range change is small but the drift of marker positions may be comparable to motion ranges.« less

Water-based condensation particle counters comparison near a major freeway with significant heavy-duty diesel traffic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Eon S.; Polidori, Andrea; Koch, Michael; Fine, Philip M.; Mehadi, Ahmed; Hammond, Donald; Wright, Jeffery N.; Miguel, Antonio. H.; Ayala, Alberto; Zhu, Yifang

2013-04-01

This study compares the instrumental performance of three TSI water-based condensation particle counter (WCPC) models measuring particle number concentrations in close proximity (15 m) to a major freeway that has a significant level of heavy-duty diesel traffic. The study focuses on examining instrument biases and performance differences by different WCPC models under realistic field operational conditions. Three TSI models (3781, 3783, and 3785) were operated for one month in triplicate (nine units in total) in parallel with two sets of Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) spectrometers for the concurrent measurement of particle size distributions. Inter-model bias under different wind directions were first evaluated using 1-min raw data. Although all three WCPC models agreed well in upwind conditions (lower particle number concentrations, in the range of 103-104 particles cm-3), the three models' responses were significantly different under downwind conditions (higher particle number concentrations, above 104 particles cm-3). In an effort to increase inter-model linear correlations, we evaluated the results of using longer averaging time intervals. An averaging time of at least 15 min was found to achieve R2 values of 0.96 or higher when comparing all three models. Similar results were observed for intra-model comparisons for each of the three models. This strong linear relationship helped identify instrument bias related to particle number concentrations and particle size distributions. The TSI 3783 produced the highest particle counts, followed by TSI 3785, which reported 11% lower during downwind conditions than TSI 3783. TSI 3781 recorded particle number concentrations that were 24% lower than those observed by TSI 3783 during downwind condition. We found that TSI 3781 underestimated particles with a count median diameter less than 45 nm. Although the particle size dependency of instrument performance was found the most significant in TSI 3781, both models 3783 and 3785 showed somewhat size dependency. In addition, within each tested WCPC model, one unit was found to count significantly different and be more sensitive to particle size than the other two. Finally, exponential regression analysis was used to numerically quantify instrumental inter-model bias. Correction equations are proposed to adjust the TSI 3781 and 3785 data to the most recent model TSI 3783.

Evaluation and inter-comparison of modern day reanalysis datasets over Africa and the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, S.; Arsenault, K. R.; Hobbins, M.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Verdin, J. P.

2015-12-01

Reanalysis datasets are potentially very valuable for otherwise data-sparse regions such as Africa and the Middle East. They are potentially useful for long-term climate and hydrologic analyses and, given their availability in real-time, they are particularity attractive for real-time hydrologic monitoring purposes (e.g. to monitor flood and drought events). Generally in data-sparse regions, reanalysis variables such as precipitation, temperature, radiation and humidity are used in conjunction with in-situ and/or satellite-based datasets to generate long-term gridded atmospheric forcing datasets. These atmospheric forcing datasets are used to drive offline land surface models and simulate soil moisture and runoff, which are natural indicators of hydrologic conditions. Therefore, any uncertainty or bias in the reanalysis datasets contributes to uncertainties in hydrologic monitoring estimates. In this presentation, we report on a comprehensive analysis that evaluates several modern-day reanalysis products (such as NASA's MERRA-1 and -2, ECMWF's ERA-Interim and NCEP's CFS Reanalysis) over Africa and the Middle East region. We compare the precipitation and temperature from the reanalysis products with other independent gridded datasets such as GPCC, CRU, and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS precipitation datasets, and CRU's temperature datasets. The evaluations are conducted at a monthly time scale, since some of these independent datasets are only available at this temporal resolution. The evaluations range from the comparison of the monthly mean climatology to inter-annual variability and long-term changes. Finally, we also present the results of inter-comparisons of radiation and humidity variables from the different reanalysis datasets.

A Novel Group-Fused Sparse Partial Correlation Method for Simultaneous Estimation of Functional Networks in Group Comparison Studies.

PubMed

Liang, Xiaoyun; Vaughan, David N; Connelly, Alan; Calamante, Fernando

2018-05-01

The conventional way to estimate functional networks is primarily based on Pearson correlation along with classic Fisher Z test. In general, networks are usually calculated at the individual-level and subsequently aggregated to obtain group-level networks. However, such estimated networks are inevitably affected by the inherent large inter-subject variability. A joint graphical model with Stability Selection (JGMSS) method was recently shown to effectively reduce inter-subject variability, mainly caused by confounding variations, by simultaneously estimating individual-level networks from a group. However, its benefits might be compromised when two groups are being compared, given that JGMSS is blinded to other groups when it is applied to estimate networks from a given group. We propose a novel method for robustly estimating networks from two groups by using group-fused multiple graphical-lasso combined with stability selection, named GMGLASS. Specifically, by simultaneously estimating similar within-group networks and between-group difference, it is possible to address inter-subject variability of estimated individual networks inherently related with existing methods such as Fisher Z test, and issues related to JGMSS ignoring between-group information in group comparisons. To evaluate the performance of GMGLASS in terms of a few key network metrics, as well as to compare with JGMSS and Fisher Z test, they are applied to both simulated and in vivo data. As a method aiming for group comparison studies, our study involves two groups for each case, i.e., normal control and patient groups; for in vivo data, we focus on a group of patients with right mesial temporal lobe epilepsy.

The Americleft Project: A Modification of Asher-McDade Method for Rating Nasolabial Esthetics in Patients With Unilateral Cleft Lip and Palate Using Q-sort.

PubMed

Stoutland, Alicia; Long, Ross E; Mercado, Ana; Daskalogiannakis, John; Hathaway, Ronald R; Russell, Kathleen A; Singer, Emily; Semb, Gunvor; Shaw, William C

2017-11-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate ways to improve rater reliability and satisfaction in nasolabial esthetic evaluations of patients with complete unilateral cleft lip and palate (UCLP), by modifying the Asher-McDade method with use of Q-sort methodology. Blinded ratings of cropped photographs of one hundred forty-nine 5- to 7-year-old consecutively treated patients with complete UCLP from 4 different centers were used in a rating of frontal and profile nasolabial esthetic outcomes by 6 judges involved in the Americleft Project's intercenter outcome comparisons. Four judges rated in previous studies using the original Asher-McDade approach. For the Q-sort modification, rather than projection of images, each judge had cards with frontal and profile photographs of each patient and rated them on a scale of 1 to 5 for vermillion border, nasolabial frontal, and profile, using the Q-sort method with placement of cards into categories 1 to 5. Inter- and intrarater reliabilities were calculated using the Weighted Kappa (95% confidence interval). For 4 raters, the reliabilities were compared with those in previous studies. There was no significant improvement in inter-rater reliabilities using the new method. Intrarater reliability consistently improved. All raters preferred the Q-sort method with rating cards rather than a PowerPoint of photos, which improved internal consistency in rating compared to previous studies using the original Asher-McDade method. All raters preferred this method because of the ability to continuously compare photos and adjust relative ratings between patients.

75 FR 48927 - Sierra National Forest, Bass Lake Ranger District, California, Fish Camp Project

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-12

... stocked and thinning is needed. This thinning is needed to reduce inter-tree competition and improve tree... densities are above what can be sustained, with inter-tree competition increasing and tree vigor beginning... communities and reduce inter tree competition to improve tree vigor and increase stand resistance to drought...

Nursing students learning the pharmacology of diabetes mellitus with complexity-based computerized models: A quasi-experimental study.

PubMed

Dubovi, Ilana; Dagan, Efrat; Sader Mazbar, Ola; Nassar, Laila; Levy, Sharona T

2018-02-01

Pharmacology is a crucial component of medications administration in nursing, yet nursing students generally find it difficult and self-rate their pharmacology skills as low. To evaluate nursing students learning pharmacology with the Pharmacology Inter-Leaved Learning-Cells environment, a novel approach to modeling biochemical interactions using a multiscale, computer-based model with a complexity perspective based on a small set of entities and simple rules. This environment represents molecules, organelles and cells to enhance the understanding of cellular processes, and combines these cells at a higher scale to obtain whole-body interactions. Sophomore nursing students who learned the pharmacology of diabetes mellitus with the Pharmacology Inter-Leaved Learning-Cells environment (experimental group; n=94) or via a lecture-based curriculum (comparison group; n=54). A quasi-experimental pre- and post-test design was conducted. The Pharmacology-Diabetes-Mellitus questionnaire and the course's final exam were used to evaluate students' knowledge of the pharmacology of diabetes mellitus. Conceptual learning was significantly higher for the experimental than for the comparison group for the course final exam scores (unpaired t=-3.8, p<0.001) and for the Pharmacology-Diabetes-Mellitus questionnaire (U=942, p<0.001). The largest effect size for the Pharmacology-Diabetes-Mellitus questionnaire was for the medication action subscale. Analysis of complex-systems component reasoning revealed a significant difference for micro-macro transitions between the levels (F(1, 82)=6.9, p<0.05). Learning with complexity-based computerized models is highly effective and enhances the understanding of moving between micro and macro levels of the biochemical phenomena, this is then related to better understanding of medication actions. Moreover, the Pharmacology Inter-Leaved Learning-Cells approach provides a more general reasoning scheme for biochemical processes, which enhances pharmacology learning beyond the specific topic learned. The present study implies that deeper understanding of pharmacology will support nursing students' clinical decisions and empower their proficiency in medications administration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-laboratory comparisons of hexenuronic acid measurements in kraft eucalyptus pulps using a UV-Vis spectroscopic method

Treesearch

J.Y. Zhu; H.F Zhou; Chai X.S.; Donna Johannes; Richard Pope; Cristina Valls; M. Blanca Roncero

2014-01-01

An inter-laboratory comparison of a UV-Vis spectroscopic method (TAPPI T 282 om-13 “Hexeneuronic acid content of chemical pulp”) for hexeneuronic acid measurements was conducted using three eucalyptus kraft pulps. The pulp samples were produced in a laboratory at kappa numbers of approximately 14, 20, and 35. The hexeneuronic acid contents of the three pulps were...

International round-robin inter-comparison of dye-sensitized and crystalline silicon solar cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chia-Yuan; Ahn, Seung Kyu; Aoki, Dasiuke; Kokubo, Junichi; Yoon, Kyung Hoon; Saito, Hidenori; Lee, Kyung Sik; Magaino, Shinichi; Takagi, Katsuhiko; Lin, Ling-Chuan; Lee, Kun-Mu; Wu, Chun-Guey; Zhou, Hong; Igari, Sanekazu

2017-02-01

An international round-robin inter-comparison of the spectral responsivity (SR) and current-voltage (I-V) characteristics for dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) and crystalline silicon solar cells is reported for the first time. The crystalline silicon cells with various spectral responsivities were also calibrated by AIST to validate this round-robin activity. On the basis of the remarkable consistency in Pmax (within ±1.4% among participants) and Isc (within ±1.2% compared to the primary calibration of AIST) of the silicon specimens, the discrepancy in the SR and photovoltaic parameters of five DSCs among three national laboratories can be verified and diagnosed. Recommendations about sample packages, SR and I-V measurement methods as well as the inter-comparison protocol for improving the performance characterization of the mesoscopic DSCs are presented according to the consolidated data and the experience of the participants.

Surface wave effect on the upper ocean in marine forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guansuo; Qiao, Fangli; Xia, Changshui; Zhao, Chang

2015-04-01

An Operational Coupled Forecast System for the seas off China and adjacent (OCFS-C) is constructed based on the paralleled wave-circulation coupled model, which is tested with comprehensive experiments and operational since November 1st, 2007. The main feature of the system is that the wave-induced mixing is considered in circulation model. Daily analyses and three day forecasts of three-dimensional temperature, salinity, currents and wave height are produced. Coverage is global at 1/2 degreed resolution with nested models up to 1/24 degree resolution in China Sea. Daily remote sensing sea surface temperatures (SST) are taken to relax to an analytical product as hot restarting fields for OCFS-C by the Nudging techniques. Forecasting-data inter-comparisons are performed to measure the effectiveness of OCFS-C in predicting upper-ocean quantities including SST, mixed layer depth (MLD) and subsurface temperature. The variety of performance with lead time and real-time is discussed as well using the daily statistic results for SST between forecast and satellite data. Several buoy observations and many Argo profiles are used for this validation. Except the conventional statistical metrics, non-dimension skill scores (SS) is taken to estimate forecast skill. Model SST comparisons with more one year-long SST time series from 2 buoys given a large SS value (more than 0.90). And skill in predicting the seasonal variability of SST is confirmed. Model subsurface temperature comparisons with that from a lot of Argo profiles indicated that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 80m and 120m. Inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12m. QCFS-C is successful and steady in predicting MLD. The daily statistic results for SST between 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecast and data is adopted to describe variability of Skill in predicting SST with lead time or real time. In a word QCFS-C shows reasonable accuracy over a series of studies designed to test ability to predict upper ocean conditions.

Voxel-based modeling and quantification of the proximal femur using inter-subject registration of quantitative CT images.

PubMed

Li, Wenjun; Kezele, Irina; Collins, D Louis; Zijdenbos, Alex; Keyak, Joyce; Kornak, John; Koyama, Alain; Saeed, Isra; Leblanc, Adrian; Harris, Tamara; Lu, Ying; Lang, Thomas

2007-11-01

We have developed a general framework which employs quantitative computed tomography (QCT) imaging and inter-subject image registration to model the three-dimensional structure of the hip, with the goal of quantifying changes in the spatial distribution of bone as it is affected by aging, drug treatment or mechanical unloading. We have adapted rigid and non-rigid inter-subject registration techniques to transform groups of hip QCT scans into a common reference space and to construct composite proximal femoral models. We have applied this technique to a longitudinal study of 16 astronauts who on average, incurred high losses of hip bone density during spaceflights of 4-6 months on the International Space Station (ISS). We compared the pre-flight and post-flight composite hip models, and observed the gradients of the bone loss distribution. We performed paired t-tests, on a voxel by voxel basis, corrected for multiple comparisons using false discovery rate (FDR), and observed regions inside the proximal femur that showed the most significant bone loss. To validate our registration algorithm, we selected the 16 pre-flight scans and manually marked 4 landmarks for each scan. After registration, the average distance between the mapped landmarks and the corresponding landmarks in the target scan was 2.56 mm. The average error due to manual landmark identification was 1.70 mm.

Homology modeling reveals the structural background of the striking difference in thermal stability between two related [NiFe]hydrogenases.

PubMed

Szilágyi, András; Kovács, Kornél L; Rákhely, Gábor; Závodszky, Péter

2002-02-01

Hydrogenases are redox metalloenzymes in bacteria that catalyze the uptake or production of molecular hydrogen. Two homologous nickel-iron hydrogenases, HupSL and HydSL from the photosynthetic purple sulfur bacterium Thiocapsa roseopersicina, differ substantially in their thermal stabilities despite the high sequence similarity between them. The optimum temperature of HydSL activity is estimated to be at least 50 degrees C higher than that of HupSL. In this work, homology models of both proteins were constructed and analyzed for a number of structural properties. The comparison of the models reveals that the higher stability of HydSL can be attributed to increased inter-subunit electrostatic interactions: the homology models reliably predict that HydSL contains at least five more inter-subunit ion pairs than HupSL. The subunit interface of HydSL is more polar than that of HupSL, and it contains a few extra inter-subunit hydrogen bonds. A more optimized cavity system and amino acid replacements resulting in increased conformational rigidity may also contribute to the higher stability of HydSL. The results are in accord with the general observation that with increasing temperature, the role of electrostatic interactions in protein stability increases. Electronic supplementary material to this paper can be obtained by using the Springer Link server located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00894-001-0071-8.

Measuring health related quality of life (HRQoL) in community and facility-based care settings with the interRAI assessment instruments: development of a crosswalk to HUI3.

PubMed

Hirdes, John P; Bernier, Julie; Garner, Rochelle; Finès, Philippe; Jantzi, Micaela

2018-05-01

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measures are of interest because they can be used to describe health of populations and represent a broader health outcome for population health analyses than mortality rates or life expectancy. The most widely used measure of HRQoL for deriving estimates of health-adjusted life expectancy is the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3). The HUI3 is available in most national surveys administered by Statistics Canada, and has been used as part of a microsimulation model to examine the impact of neurological conditions over the life course. Persons receiving home care and nursing home services are often not well-represented in these surveys; however, interRAI assessment instruments are now used as part of normal clinical practice in these settings for nine Canadian provinces/territories. Building on previous research that developed a HUI2 crosswalk for the interRAI assessments, the present study examined a new interRAI HRQoL index crosswalked to the HUI3. interRAI and survey data were used to examine the distributional properties of global and domain-specific interRAI HRQoL and HUI3 index scores, respectively. Three populations were considered: well-elderly persons not receiving home care, home care clients and nursing home residents. The mean HUI3 and interRAI HRQoL index global scores declined from independent healthy older persons to home care clients, followed by nursing home residents. For the home care and nursing home populations, the interRAI HRQoL global estimates tended to be lower than HUI3 global scores obtained from survey respondents. While there were some statistically significant age, sex and diagnostic group differences in global scores and within attributes, the most notable differences were between populations from different care settings. The present study provides strong evidence for the validity of the interRAI HRQoL based on comparisons of distributional properties with those obtained with survey data based on the HUI3. The results demonstrate the importance of admission criteria for home care and nursing home settings, where function plays a more important role than demographic or diagnostic criteria. The interRAI HRQoL has a distinct advantage because it is gathered as part of normal clinical practice in care settings where interRAI instruments are mandatory and are used to assess all eligible persons in those sectors. In particular, those with severe cognitive and functional impairments (who tend to be under-represented in survey data) will be evaluated using the interRAI tools. Future research should build on this work by providing direct, person-level comparisons of interRAI HRQoL index and HUI3 scores, as well as longitudinal analyses to examine responsiveness to change.

Transfer Standard Uncertainty Can Cause Inconclusive Inter-Laboratory Comparisons

PubMed Central

Wright, John; Toman, Blaza; Mickan, Bodo; Wübbeler, Gerd; Bodnar, Olha; Elster, Clemens

2016-01-01

Inter-laboratory comparisons use the best available transfer standards to check the participants’ uncertainty analyses, identify underestimated uncertainty claims or unknown measurement biases, and improve the global measurement system. For some measurands, instability of the transfer standard can lead to an inconclusive comparison result. If the transfer standard uncertainty is large relative to a participating laboratory’s uncertainty, the commonly used standardized degree of equivalence ≤ 1 criterion does not always correctly assess whether a participant is working within their uncertainty claims. We show comparison results that demonstrate this issue and propose several criteria for assessing a comparison result as passing, failing, or inconclusive. We investigate the behavior of the standardized degree of equivalence and alternative comparison measures for a range of values of the transfer standard uncertainty relative to the individual laboratory uncertainty values. The proposed alternative criteria successfully discerned between passing, failing, and inconclusive comparison results for the cases we examined. PMID:28090123

The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability

DOE PAGES

Chylek, Petr; Klett, James D.; Dubey, Manvendra K.; ...

2016-11-01

We simulated the global mean 1900–2015 warming by 42 Coupled Models Inter-comparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models varies between 0.58 and 1.70 °C. The observed warming according to the NASA GISS temperature analysis is 0.95 °C with a 1200 km smoothing radius, or 0.86 °C with a 250 km smoothing radius. The projection of the future 2015–2100 global warming under a moderate increase of anthropogenic radiative forcing (RCP4.5 scenario) by individual models is between 0.7 and 2.3 °C. The CMIP5 climate models agree that the future climate will be warmer; however, there is little consensus as to how largemore » the warming will be (reflected by an uncertainty of over a factor of three). Moreover, a parsimonious statistical regression model with just three explanatory variables [anthropogenic radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases and aerosols (GHGA), solar variability, and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index] accounts for over 95 % of the observed 1900–2015 temperature variance. This statistical regression model reproduces very accurately the past warming (0.96 °C compared to the observed 0.95 °C) and projects the future 2015–2100 warming to be around 0.95 °C (with the IPCC 2013 suggested RCP4.5 radiative forcing and an assumed cyclic AMO behavior). The AMO contribution to the 1970–2005 warming was between 0.13 and 0.20 °C (depending on which AMO index is used) compared to the GHGA contribution of 0.49–0.58 °C. During the twenty-first century AMO cycle the AMO contribution is projected to remain the same (0.13–0.20 °C), while the GHGA contribution is expected to decrease to 0.21–0.25 °C due to the levelling off of the GHGA radiative forcing that is assumed according to the RCP4.5 scenario. Therefore, the anthropogenic contribution and natural variability are expected to contribute about equally to the anticipated global warming during the second half of the twenty-first century for the RCP4.5 trajectory.« less

The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chylek, Petr; Klett, James D.; Dubey, Manvendra K.

We simulated the global mean 1900–2015 warming by 42 Coupled Models Inter-comparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models varies between 0.58 and 1.70 °C. The observed warming according to the NASA GISS temperature analysis is 0.95 °C with a 1200 km smoothing radius, or 0.86 °C with a 250 km smoothing radius. The projection of the future 2015–2100 global warming under a moderate increase of anthropogenic radiative forcing (RCP4.5 scenario) by individual models is between 0.7 and 2.3 °C. The CMIP5 climate models agree that the future climate will be warmer; however, there is little consensus as to how largemore » the warming will be (reflected by an uncertainty of over a factor of three). Moreover, a parsimonious statistical regression model with just three explanatory variables [anthropogenic radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases and aerosols (GHGA), solar variability, and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index] accounts for over 95 % of the observed 1900–2015 temperature variance. This statistical regression model reproduces very accurately the past warming (0.96 °C compared to the observed 0.95 °C) and projects the future 2015–2100 warming to be around 0.95 °C (with the IPCC 2013 suggested RCP4.5 radiative forcing and an assumed cyclic AMO behavior). The AMO contribution to the 1970–2005 warming was between 0.13 and 0.20 °C (depending on which AMO index is used) compared to the GHGA contribution of 0.49–0.58 °C. During the twenty-first century AMO cycle the AMO contribution is projected to remain the same (0.13–0.20 °C), while the GHGA contribution is expected to decrease to 0.21–0.25 °C due to the levelling off of the GHGA radiative forcing that is assumed according to the RCP4.5 scenario. Therefore, the anthropogenic contribution and natural variability are expected to contribute about equally to the anticipated global warming during the second half of the twenty-first century for the RCP4.5 trajectory.« less

Results of the eruptive column model inter-comparison study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costa, Antonio; Suzuki, Yujiro; Cerminara, M.; Devenish, Ben J.; Esposti Ongaro, T.; Herzog, Michael; Van Eaton, Alexa; Denby, L.C.; Bursik, Marcus; de' Michieli Vitturi, Mattia; Engwell, S.; Neri, Augusto; Barsotti, Sara; Folch, Arnau; Macedonio, Giovanni; Girault, F.; Carazzo, G.; Tait, S.; Kaminski, E.; Mastin, Larry G.; Woodhouse, Mark J.; Phillips, Jeremy C.; Hogg, Andrew J.; Degruyter, Wim; Bonadonna, Costanza

2016-01-01

This study compares and evaluates one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of volcanic eruption columns in a set of different inter-comparison exercises. The exercises were designed as a blind test in which a set of common input parameters was given for two reference eruptions, representing a strong and a weak eruption column under different meteorological conditions. Comparing the results of the different models allows us to evaluate their capabilities and target areas for future improvement. Despite their different formulations, the 1D and 3D models provide reasonably consistent predictions of some of the key global descriptors of the volcanic plumes. Variability in plume height, estimated from the standard deviation of model predictions, is within ~ 20% for the weak plume and ~ 10% for the strong plume. Predictions of neutral buoyancy level are also in reasonably good agreement among the different models, with a standard deviation ranging from 9 to 19% (the latter for the weak plume in a windy atmosphere). Overall, these discrepancies are in the range of observational uncertainty of column height. However, there are important differences amongst models in terms of local properties along the plume axis, particularly for the strong plume. Our analysis suggests that the simplified treatment of entrainment in 1D models is adequate to resolve the general behaviour of the weak plume. However, it is inadequate to capture complex features of the strong plume, such as large vortices, partial column collapse, or gravitational fountaining that strongly enhance entrainment in the lower atmosphere. We conclude that there is a need to more accurately quantify entrainment rates, improve the representation of plume radius, and incorporate the effects of column instability in future versions of 1D volcanic plume models.

Nutrition Inservice Education for Urban Day Care Providers: A Comparison of Three Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, Melissa G.

Three different models of inservice nutrition education implemented by Detroit's Nutrition Education Training (NET) Project are described and compared. The NET Project was funded first as a pilot project in 1978-79, and was refunded in 79-80 and 80-81. The original pilot project goal was to demonstrate the value of teaching urban day care staff…

Regional contribution to variability and trends of global gross primary productivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Min; Rafique, Rashid; Asrar, Ghassem R.

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest component of the global carbon cycle and a key process for understanding land ecosystems dynamics. In this study, we used GPP estimates from a combination of eight global biome models participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact-Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP2a), the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP product, and a data-driven product (Model Tree Ensemble, MTE) to study the spatiotemporal variability of GPP at the regional and global levels. We found the 2000-2010 total global GPP estimated from the model ensemble to be 117±13 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± 1 standard deviation), whichmore » was higher than MODIS (112 Pg C yr-1), and close to the MTE (120 Pg C yr-1). The spatial patterns of MODIS, MTE and ISIMIP2a GPP generally agree well, but their temporal trends are different, and the seasonality and inter-annual variability of GPP at the regional and global levels are not completely consistent. For the model ensemble, Tropical Latin America contributes the most to global GPP, Asian regions contribute the most to the global GPP trend, the Northern Hemisphere regions dominate the global GPP seasonal variations, and Oceania is likely the largest contributor to inter-annual variability of global GPP. However, we observed large uncertainties across the eight ISIMIP2a models, which are probably due to the differences in the formulation of underlying photosynthetic processes. The results of this study are useful in understanding the contributions of different regions to global GPP and its spatiotemporal variability, how the model- and observational-based GPP estimates differ from each other in time and space, and the relative strength of the eight models. Our results also highlight the models’ ability to capture the seasonality of GPP that are essential for understanding the inter-annual and seasonal variability of GPP as a major component of the carbon cycle.« less

Regional contribution to variability and trends of global gross primary productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Min; Rafique, Rashid; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Ciais, Philippe; Zhao, Fang; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Ostberg, Sebastian; Chang, Jinfeng; Ito, Akihiko; Yang, Jia; Zeng, Ning; Kalnay, Eugenia; West, Tristram; Leng, Guoyong; Francois, Louis; Munhoven, Guy; Henrot, Alexandra; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Shufen; Nishina, Kazuya; Viovy, Nicolas; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Betts, Richard; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Steinkamp, Jörg; Hickler, Thomas

2017-10-01

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest component of the global carbon cycle and a key process for understanding land ecosystems dynamics. In this study, we used GPP estimates from a combination of eight global biome models participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact-Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP2a), the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP product, and a data-driven product (Model Tree Ensemble, MTE) to study the spatiotemporal variability of GPP at the regional and global levels. We found the 2000-2010 total global GPP estimated from the model ensemble to be 117 ± 13 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± 1 standard deviation), which was higher than MODIS (112 Pg C yr-1), and close to the MTE (120 Pg C yr-1). The spatial patterns of MODIS, MTE and ISIMIP2a GPP generally agree well, but their temporal trends are different, and the seasonality and inter-annual variability of GPP at the regional and global levels are not completely consistent. For the model ensemble, Tropical Latin America contributes the most to global GPP, Asian regions contribute the most to the global GPP trend, the Northern Hemisphere regions dominate the global GPP seasonal variations, and Oceania is likely the largest contributor to inter-annual variability of global GPP. However, we observed large uncertainties across the eight ISIMIP2a models, which are probably due to the differences in the formulation of underlying photosynthetic processes. The results of this study are useful in understanding the contributions of different regions to global GPP and its spatiotemporal variability, how the model- and observational-based GPP estimates differ from each other in time and space, and the relative strength of the eight models. Our results also highlight the models’ ability to capture the seasonality of GPP that are essential for understanding the inter-annual and seasonal variability of GPP as a major component of the carbon cycle.

Improved Regional Water Management Utilizing Climate Forecasts: An Inter-basin Transfer Model with a Risk Management Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Arumugam, S.; Ranjithan, R. S.; Brill, E. D., Jr.

2014-12-01

Regional water supply systems undergo surplus and deficit conditions due to differences in inflow characteristics as well as due to their seasonal demand patterns. This study presents a framework for regional water management by proposing an Inter-Basin Transfer (IBT) model that uses climate-information-based inflow forecast for minimizing the deviations from the end- of-season target storage across the participating reservoirs. Using the ensemble streamflow forecast, the IBT water allocation model was applied for two reservoir systems in the North Carolina Triangle area. Results show that inter-basin transfers initiated by the ensemble streamflow forecast could potentially improve the overall water supply reliability as the demand continues to grow in the Triangle Area. To further understand the utility of climate forecasts in facilitating IBT under different spatial correlation structures between inflows and between the initial storages of the two systems, a synthetic experiment was designed to evaluate the framework under inflow forecast having different skills. Findings from the synthetic study can be summarized as follows: (a) Inflow forecasts combined with the proposed IBT optimization model provide improved allocation in comparison to the allocations obtained under the no- transfer scenario as well as under transfers obtained with climatology; (b) Spatial correlations between inflows and between initial storages among participating reservoirs could also influence the potential benefits that could be achieved through IBT; (c) IBT is particularly beneficial for systems that experience low correlations between inflows or between initial storages or on both attributes of the regional water supply system. Thus, if both infrastructure and permitting structures exist for promoting inter-basin transfers, season-ahead inflow forecasts could provide added benefits in forecasting surplus/deficit conditions among the participating reservoirs in the regional water supply system.

The Integration of Inter-Culture Education into Intensive Reading Teaching for English Majors through Project-Based Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Shu-jing; Meng, Li-hua

2010-01-01

With the research of the relationship between inter-culture and language teaching development, people are well aware of the necessity of integrating inter-culture into language teaching. While providing the opportunity for the students to improve their intercultural communication competence, here, the research presented on the integration of…

Comparisons for ESTA-Task3: ASTEC, CESAM and CLÉS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen-Dalsgaard, J.

The ESTA activity under the CoRoT project aims at testing the tools for computing stellar models and oscillation frequencies that will be used in the analysis of asteroseismic data from CoRoT and other large-scale upcoming asteroseismic projects. Here I report results of comparisons between calculations using the Aarhus code (ASTEC) and two other codes, for models that include diffusion and settling. It is found that there are likely deficiencies, requiring further study, in the ASTEC computation of models including convective cores.

Re-plumbing the Terrestrial Hydrosphere: Scope and Impact of Major Inter-basin Water Transfers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shikhmacheva, K. V.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Fekete, B. M.; Afshari, S.; Aside, B.; Chibisova, Y.; Dopson, I.; Link, H.; Mouden, A.

2013-12-01

The availability of water has become one of the main concerns in modern history and it is an important policymaking strategy. Increasing population, agricultural intensification, rapid urbanization, industrial expansion and environmental changes increase water demand on region and global scales. Inter-Basin Water Transfer (IBWT) is an important element of satisfying immediate water requirements. The complex engineering structures divert water flow between watersheds, thus ';re-plumbing' terrestrial hydrosphere. We report here an analysis of inter-basin water transfer for the Northeast region, which is a part of an NSF funded project entitled 'The NorthEast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM).' In addition, this work is also a part of a global IBWT study. First, we present the IBWT geo-referenced assembled data set, derived from from maps, published documents and online resources. The information in the data base was classified by project name, diverted volume, source location, usage, status of construction, transport distance and purpose. The key feature of the dataset is geo-location of the projects, that allows further analysis of the hydrologic impact of each of the projects as well as their collective significance. Upon completion of the data-collection phase, the inputs were verified using RiverGIS and ArcGIS software. In addition, we investigated some key measures of IBWT distortion of regional-scale hydrology as well as their socio-economic impacts across the Northeast region. We calculated several indicators to assess these impacts, for example the donor-to-recipient basin flow ratio, which represents the 'gain' and 'loss' of water relative to the natural flow on a basin scale. Elements of the regional IBWT data base will be incorporated into the regional-scale Water Balance Model (WBM), and linked to the operation of reservoirs and dams. While focused on the Northeastern U.S., we believe that this data, its testing and applications will yield broad use and interest across the community, giving researchers a next important resource in the arsenal of datasets depicting human-water interactions.

Comparison of Different Matrices as Potential Quality Control Samples for Neurochemical Dementia Diagnostics.

PubMed

Lelental, Natalia; Brandner, Sebastian; Kofanova, Olga; Blennow, Kaj; Zetterberg, Henrik; Andreasson, Ulf; Engelborghs, Sebastiaan; Mroczko, Barbara; Gabryelewicz, Tomasz; Teunissen, Charlotte; Mollenhauer, Brit; Parnetti, Lucilla; Chiasserini, Davide; Molinuevo, Jose Luis; Perret-Liaudet, Armand; Verbeek, Marcel M; Andreasen, Niels; Brosseron, Frederic; Bahl, Justyna M C; Herukka, Sanna-Kaisa; Hausner, Lucrezia; Frölich, Lutz; Labonte, Anne; Poirier, Judes; Miller, Anne-Marie; Zilka, Norbert; Kovacech, Branislav; Urbani, Andrea; Suardi, Silvia; Oliveira, Catarina; Baldeiras, Ines; Dubois, Bruno; Rot, Uros; Lehmann, Sylvain; Skinningsrud, Anders; Betsou, Fay; Wiltfang, Jens; Gkatzima, Olymbia; Winblad, Bengt; Buchfelder, Michael; Kornhuber, Johannes; Lewczuk, Piotr

2016-03-01

Assay-vendor independent quality control (QC) samples for neurochemical dementia diagnostics (NDD) biomarkers are so far commercially unavailable. This requires that NDD laboratories prepare their own QC samples, for example by pooling leftover cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples. To prepare and test alternative matrices for QC samples that could facilitate intra- and inter-laboratory QC of the NDD biomarkers. Three matrices were validated in this study: (A) human pooled CSF, (B) Aβ peptides spiked into human prediluted plasma, and (C) Aβ peptides spiked into solution of bovine serum albumin in phosphate-buffered saline. All matrices were tested also after supplementation with an antibacterial agent (sodium azide). We analyzed short- and long-term stability of the biomarkers with ELISA and chemiluminescence (Fujirebio Europe, MSD, IBL International), and performed an inter-laboratory variability study. NDD biomarkers turned out to be stable in almost all samples stored at the tested conditions for up to 14 days as well as in samples stored deep-frozen (at - 80°C) for up to one year. Sodium azide did not influence biomarker stability. Inter-center variability of the samples sent at room temperature (pooled CSF, freeze-dried CSF, and four artificial matrices) was comparable to the results obtained on deep-frozen samples in other large-scale projects. Our results suggest that it is possible to replace self-made, CSF-based QC samples with large-scale volumes of QC materials prepared with artificial peptides and matrices. This would greatly facilitate intra- and inter-laboratory QC schedules for NDD measurements.

Role-play games, experiments, workshops, blog posts: how community activities in HEPEX contribute to advance hydrologic ensemble prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Maria-Helena; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Wood, Andy; Wang, Qj; Pappenberger, Florian; Verkade, Jan

2017-04-01

Since 2004, HEPEX (Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment) has been fostering a community of researchers and practitioners around the world. Through the years, it has contributed to establish a more integrative view of hydrological forecasting, where data assimilation, hydro-meteorological modelling chains, post-processing techniques, expert knowledge, and decision support systems are connected to enhance operational systems and water management applications. Here we present the community activities in HEPEX that have contributed to strengthening this unfunded/volunteer effort for more than a decade. It includes the organization of workshops, conference sessions, testbeds and inter-comparison experiments. More recently, HEPEX has also prompted the development of several publicly available role-play games and, since 2013, it has been running a blog portal (www.hepex.org), which is used as an intersection point for members. Through this website, members can continuously share their research, make announcements, report on workshops, projects and meetings, and hear about related research and operational challenges. It also creates a platform for early career scientists to become increasingly involved in hydrological forecasting science and applications.

SUMMA and Model Mimicry: Understanding Differences Among Land Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, B.; Nearing, G. S.; Ou, G.; Clark, M. P.

2016-12-01

Model inter-comparison and model ensemble experiments suffer from an inability to explain the mechanisms behind differences in model outcomes. We can clearly demonstrate that the models are different, but we cannot necessarily identify the reasons why, because most models exhibit myriad differences in process representations, model parameterizations, model parameters and numerical solution methods. This inability to identify the reasons for differences in model performance hampers our understanding and limits model improvement, because we cannot easily identify the most promising paths forward. We have developed the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) to allow for controlled experimentation with model construction, numerical techniques, and parameter values and therefore isolate differences in model outcomes to specific choices during the model development process. In developing SUMMA, we recognized that hydrologic models can be thought of as individual instantiations of a master modeling template that is based on a common set of conservation equations for energy and water. Given this perspective, SUMMA provides a unified approach to hydrologic modeling that integrates different modeling methods into a consistent structure with the ability to instantiate alternative hydrologic models at runtime. Here we employ SUMMA to revisit a previous multi-model experiment and demonstrate its use for understanding differences in model performance. Specifically, we implement SUMMA to mimic the spread of behaviors exhibited by the land models that participated in the Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS) Land Surface Model Benchmarking Evaluation Project (PLUMBER) and draw conclusions about the relative performance of specific model parameterizations for water and energy fluxes through the soil-vegetation continuum. SUMMA's ability to mimic the spread of model ensembles and the behavior of individual models can be an important tool in focusing model development and improvement efforts.

Inter-comparison between AIRS and IASI through Retrieved Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Daniel K.; Larar, Allen M.; Smith, William L.; Taylor, Jonathan P.; Schluessel, Peter; Strow, L. Larrabee; Mango, Steve

2008-01-01

A State-of-the-art retrieval algorithm dealing with all-weather conditions has been applied to satellite/aircraft instruments retrieving cloud/surface and atmospheric conditions. High quality retrievals have been achieved from IASI data. Surface, cloud, and atmospheric structure and variation are well captured by IASI measurements and/or retrievals. The same retrieval algorithm is also applied to AIRS for retrieval inter-comparison. Both AIRS and IASI have a similar FOV size but AIRS has a higher horizontal resolution. AIRS data can be interpolated to IASI horizontal resolution for inter-comparison at the same geophysical locations, however a temporal variation between AIRS and IASI observations need to be considered. JAIVEx has employed aircraft to obtain the atmospheric variation filling the temporal gap between two satellites. First results show that both AIRS and IASI have a very similar vertical resolving power, atmospheric conditions are well captured by both instruments, and radiances are well calibrated. AIRS data shown in retrievals (e.g., surface emissivity and moisture) have a relatively higher noise level. Since the this type of retrieval is very sensitive to its radiance quality, retrieval products inter-comparison is an effective way to identify/compare their radiance quality, in terms of a combination of spectral resolution and noise level, and to assess instrument performance. Additional validation analyses are needed to provide more-definitive conclusions.

A GRASS GIS module to obtain an estimation of glacier behavior under climate change: A pilot study on Italian glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strigaro, Daniele; Moretti, Massimiliano; Mattavelli, Matteo; Frigerio, Ivan; Amicis, Mattia De; Maggi, Valter

2016-09-01

The aim of this work is to integrate the Minimal Glacier Model in a Geographic Information System Python module in order to obtain spatial simulations of glacier retreat and to assess the future scenarios with a spatial representation. The Minimal Glacier Models are a simple yet effective way of estimating glacier response to climate fluctuations. This module can be useful for the scientific and glaciological community in order to evaluate glacier behavior, driven by climate forcing. The module, called r.glacio.model, is developed in a GRASS GIS (GRASS Development Team, 2016) environment using Python programming language combined with different libraries as GDAL, OGR, CSV, math, etc. The module is applied and validated on the Rutor glacier, a glacier in the south-western region of the Italian Alps. This glacier is very large in size and features rather regular and lively dynamics. The simulation is calibrated by reconstructing the 3-dimensional dynamics flow line and analyzing the difference between the simulated flow line length variations and the observed glacier fronts coming from ortophotos and DEMs. These simulations are driven by the past mass balance record. Afterwards, the future assessment is estimated by using climatic drivers provided by a set of General Circulation Models participating in the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project 5 effort. The approach devised in r.glacio.model can be applied to most alpine glaciers to obtain a first-order spatial representation of glacier behavior under climate change.

Impacts of the Indian Rivers Inter-link Project on Sediment Transport to River Deltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, S.; Overeem, I.; Syvitski, J. P.

2015-12-01

The Indian Rivers Inter-link project is a proposal by the Indian government to link several of India's major rivers via a network of reservoirs and canals. Variations of the IRI have been discussed since 1980, but the current plan has recently received increased support from the Indian government. Construction on three canals has controversially begun. If the Inter-link project moves forward, fourteen canals will divert water from tributaries of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers to areas in the west, where fresh water is needed for irrigation. Additional canals would transport Himalayan sediments 500 km south to the Mahanadi delta and more than 1000 km south to the Godavari and Krishna deltas. We investigate the impacts of the proposed diversions on sediment transport to the Mahanadi/Brahmani, Godavari, and Krishna deltas in India and the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta in Bangladesh. We map the entire river network and the proposed new nodes and connections. Changing watersheds are delineated using the Terrain Analysis Using Digital Elevation Models (TauDEM) Suite. Climate data comes from interpolation between observed precipitation stations located in China, Nepal, India, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Changes in water discharge due to the proposed canals are simulated using HydroTrend, a climate-driven hydrological water balance and transport model that incorporates drainage area, discharge, relief, temperature, basin-average lithology, and anthropogenic influences. Simulated river discharge is validated against observations from gauging stations archived by the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC). HydroTrend is then used to investigate sediment transport changes that may result from the proposed canals. We also quantify changes in contributing areas for the outlets of nine major Indian rivers, showing that more than 50% of the land in India will contribute a portion of its runoff to a new outlet should the entire canal system be constructed.

The InterLACE study: Design, data harmonization and characteristics across 20 studies on women's health.

PubMed

Mishra, Gita D; Chung, Hsin-Fang; Pandeya, Nirmala; Dobson, Annette J; Jones, Lee; Avis, Nancy E; Crawford, Sybil L; Gold, Ellen B; Brown, Daniel; Sievert, Lynette L; Brunner, Eric; Cade, Janet E; Burley, Victoria J; Greenwood, Darren C; Giles, Graham G; Bruinsma, Fiona; Goodman, Alissa; Hayashi, Kunihiko; Lee, Jung Su; Mizunuma, Hideki; Kuh, Diana; Cooper, Rachel; Hardy, Rebecca; Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf; Lee, Kathryn A; Simonsen, Mette Kildevæld; Yoshizawa, Toyoko; Woods, Nancy F; Mitchell, Ellen S; Hamer, Mark; Demakakos, Panayotes; Sandin, Sven; Adami, Hans-Olov; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Anderson, Debra

2016-10-01

The International Collaboration for a Life Course Approach to Reproductive Health and Chronic Disease Events (InterLACE) project is a global research collaboration that aims to advance understanding of women's reproductive health in relation to chronic disease risk by pooling individual participant data from several cohort and cross-sectional studies. The aim of this paper is to describe the characteristics of contributing studies and to present the distribution of demographic and reproductive factors and chronic disease outcomes in InterLACE. InterLACE is an individual-level pooled study of 20 observational studies (12 of which are longitudinal) from ten countries. Variables were harmonized across studies to create a new and systematic synthesis of life-course data. Harmonized data were derived in three domains: 1) socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, 2) female reproductive characteristics, and 3) chronic disease outcomes (cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes). InterLACE pooled data from 229,054 mid-aged women. Overall, 76% of the women were Caucasian and 22% Japanese; other ethnicities (of 300 or more participants) included Hispanic/Latin American (0.2%), Chinese (0.2%), Middle Eastern (0.3%), African/black (0.5%), and Other (1.0%). The median age at baseline was 47 years (Inter-quartile range (IQR): 41-53), and that at the last follow-up was 56 years (IQR: 48-64). Regarding reproductive characteristics, half of the women (49.8%) had their first menstruation (menarche) at 12-13 years of age. The distribution of menopausal status and the prevalence of chronic disease varied considerably among studies. At baseline, most women (57%) were pre- or peri-menopausal, 20% reported a natural menopause (range 0.8-55.6%) and the remainder had surgery or were taking hormones. By the end of follow-up, the prevalence rates of CVD and diabetes were 7.2% (range 0.9-24.6%) and 5.1% (range 1.3-13.2%), respectively. The scale and heterogeneity of InterLACE data provide an opportunity to strengthen evidence concerning the relationships between reproductive health through life and subsequent risks of chronic disease, including cross-cultural comparisons. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intra- and inter-basin mercury comparisons: Importance of basin scale and time-weighted methylmercury estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradley, Paul M.; Journey, Celeste A.; Bringham, Mark E.; Burns, Douglas A.; Button, Daniel T.; Riva-Murray, Karen

2013-01-01

To assess inter-comparability of fluvial mercury (Hg) observations at substantially different scales, Hg concentrations, yields, and bivariate-relations were evaluated at nested-basin locations in the Edisto River, South Carolina and Hudson River, New York. Differences between scales were observed for filtered methylmercury (FMeHg) in the Edisto (attributed to wetland coverage differences) but not in the Hudson. Total mercury (THg) concentrations and bivariate-relationships did not vary substantially with scale in either basin. Combining results of this and a previously published multi-basin study, fish Hg correlated strongly with sampled water FMeHg concentration (p = 0.78; p = 0.003) and annual FMeHg basin yield (p = 0.66; p = 0.026). Improved correlation (p = 0.88; p < 0.0001) was achieved with time-weighted mean annual FMeHg concentrations estimated from basin-specific LOADEST models and daily streamflow. Results suggest reasonable scalability and inter-comparability for different basin sizes if wetland area or related MeHg-source-area metrics are considered.

Empirical insights and considerations for the OBT inter-laboratory comparison of environmental samples.

PubMed

Kim, Sang-Bog; Roche, Jennifer

2013-08-01

Organically bound tritium (OBT) is an important tritium species that can be measured in most environmental samples, but has only recently been recognized as a species of tritium in these samples. Currently, OBT is not routinely measured by environmental monitoring laboratories around the world. There are no certified reference materials (CRMs) for environmental samples. Thus, quality assurance (QA), or verification of the accuracy of the OBT measurement, is not possible. Alternatively, quality control (QC), or verification of the precision of the OBT measurement, can be achieved. In the past, there have been differences in OBT analysis results between environmental laboratories. A possible reason for the discrepancies may be differences in analytical methods. Therefore, inter-laboratory OBT comparisons among the environmental laboratories are important and would provide a good opportunity for adopting a reference OBT analytical procedure. Due to the analytical issues, only limited information is available on OBT measurement. Previously conducted OBT inter-laboratory practices are reviewed and the findings are described. Based on our experiences, a few considerations were suggested for the international OBT inter-laboratory comparison exercise to be completed in the near future. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

False consensus in social context: differential projection and perceived social distance.

PubMed

Jones, Paul E

2004-09-01

The study implicates the notion of perceived social distance as an explanation of why ingroup false consensus exceeds outgroup false consensus. Whilst previous demonstrations are best understood from social identity perspectives, the findings reported here suggest that self-group as well as inter-group comparisons can underlie such effects. In particular, perceived social distance was shown to mediate the effect of social categorisation: ingroup false consensus was greater because more social distance was perceived with the outgroup. The findings also extended to non-student samples and generalised across both opinion and ability items. In addition, examining the effect of item type in conjunction with social categorisation seriously challenged the generality of the false consensus effect.

Model-Based Segmentation of Cortical Regions of Interest for Multi-subject Analysis of fMRI Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, Karin; Brechmann, Andr'e.; Toennies, Klaus

The high inter-subject variability of human neuroanatomy complicates the analysis of functional imaging data across subjects. We propose a method for the correct segmentation of cortical regions of interest based on the cortical surface. First results on the segmentation of Heschl's gyrus indicate the capability of our approach for correct comparison of functional activations in relation to individual cortical patterns.

Effects of Climate Change on Flood Frequency in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergel, D. R.; Stumbaugh, M. R.; Lee, S. Y.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

A key concern about climate change as related to water resources is the potential for changes in hydrologic extremes, including flooding. We explore changes in flood frequency in the Pacific Northwest using downscaled output from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for historical forcings (1950-2005) and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (2006-2100). We use archived output from the Integrated Scenarios Project (ISP) (http://maca.northwestknowledge.net/), which uses the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method for statistical downscaling. The MACA-downscaled GCM output was then used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a 1/16th degree spatial resolution and a daily time step. For each of the 238 HUC-08 areas within the Pacific Northwest (USGS Hydrologic Region 15), we computed, from the ISP archive, the series of maximum daily runoff values (surrogate for the annual maximum flood), and then the mean annual flood. Finally, we computed the ratios of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 mean annual floods to their corresponding values for the historical period. We evaluate spatial patterns in the results. For snow-dominated watersheds, the changes are dominated by reductions in flood frequency in basins that currently have spring-dominant floods, and increases in snow affected basins with fall-dominant floods. In low elevation basins west of the Cascades, changes in flooding are more directly related to changes in precipitation extremes. We further explore the nature of these effects by evaluating the mean Julian day of the annual maximum flood for each HUC-08 and how this changes between the historical and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Results of a European interlaboratory comparison on CO2 sorption on activated carbon and coals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gensterblum, Yves; Busch, Andreas; Krooss, Bernhard; de Weireld, Guy; Billemont, Pierre; van Hemert, Patrick; Wolf, Karl-Heinz

2013-04-01

For the assessment of CO2 storage in coal seams or enhanced coalbed methane production (ECBM), the sorption properties of natural coals are important parameters. Since more and more laboratories worldwide are concerned with measurements of gas sorption on coal it is indispensable to establish quality standards for such experiments. The first two interlaboratory studies on CO2 sorption on coal (Goodman et al. 2004, 2007) revealed a poor agreement of sorption isotherms among the participating laboratories, particularly in the high-pressure range. During the MOVECBM (http://www.movecbm.eu/) project funded by the European Commission (6th framework), an interlaboratory comparison of CO2 sorption on selected coals and activated carbon was initiated. Measurements were performed on dry samples at 45° C using the manometric and the gravimetric method. up to a final pressure of 15 MPa. The first set of high-pressure sorption measurements was performed on a Filtrasorb 400 activated carbon sample in order to minimise heterogeneity effects and to optimize the experimental procedures for the individual (manometric or gravimetric) methods (Gensterblum et al. 2009). Since comparability for the activated carbon was excellent, the measurements were continued using natural coals of various rank (anthracite, bituminous coal and lignite) to study the influence of heterogeneities and varying starting conditions on the CO2 sorption properties (Gensterblum et al. 2010). Compared to the poor reproducibility observed in previous interlaboratory studies (Goodman et al., 2004, 2007) this European study showed excellent agreement (<5 % deviation) among the participating laboratories with good repeatability. The sorption data and technical information on the different experimental setups have been used to investigate errors and potential pitfalls in the assessment of high-pressure CO2 sorption isotherms. References Gensterblum Y., P. van Hemert, P. Billemont, A. Busch, B.M. Krooss, G. de Weireld, D. Prinz , K.-H.A.A. Wolf, "European inter-laboratory comparison of high pressure CO2 sorption isotherms. II: natural coals" IJCG, 2010, 84, 115-124 Gensterblum Y., P. van Hemert, P. Billemont, A. Busch, D. Charriére, D. Li, B.M. Krooss, G. de Weireld, D. Prinz , K.-H.A.A. Wolf, "European inter-laboratory comparison of high pressure CO2 sorption isotherms. I: Activated carbon" Carbon 47 ( 2009 ) 2958 -2969 Goodman, A.L., Busch, A., Duffy, G., Fitzgerald, J.E., Gasem, K.A.M., Gensterblum, Y., Krooss, B.M., Levy, J., Ozdemir, E., Pan, Z., Robinson, Jr., R.L., Schroeder, K., Sudibandriyo, M., White, C. (2004). An Inter-laboratory Comparison of CO2 Isotherms Measured on Argonne Premium Coal Samples. Energy and Fuels 18, 1175-1182. Goodman, A.L., Busch, A., Day, S., Duffy, G.J., Fitzgerald, J.E., Gasem, K.A.M., Gensterblum, Y., Hartman, C., Krooss, B.M., Pan, Z., Pratt, T., Robinson, Jr., R.L., Romanov, V., Sakurovs, R., Schroeder, K., Sudibandriyo, M., White, C.M. (2007) "Inter-laboratory Comparison II: CO2 Isotherms Measured on Moisture-Equilibrated Argonne Premium Coals at 55oC and 15 MPa", International Journal of Coal Geology 72, 153-164.

Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments

DOE PAGES

Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Wehner, Michael; Knutti, Reto

2017-06-28

We present a weighting strategy for use with the CMIP5 multi-model archive in the fourth National Climate Assessment, which considers both skill in the climatological performance of models over North America as well as the inter-dependency of models arising from common parameterizations or tuning practices. The method exploits information relating to the climatological mean state of a number of projection-relevant variables as well as metrics representing long-term statistics of weather extremes. The weights, once computed can be used to simply compute weighted means and significance information from an ensemble containing multiple initial condition members from potentially co-dependent models of varyingmore » skill. Two parameters in the algorithm determine the degree to which model climatological skill and model uniqueness are rewarded; these parameters are explored and final values are defended for the assessment. The influence of model weighting on projected temperature and precipitation changes is found to be moderate, partly due to a compensating effect between model skill and uniqueness. However, more aggressive skill weighting and weighting by targeted metrics is found to have a more significant effect on inferred ensemble confidence in future patterns of change for a given projection.« less

Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lissner, T. K.; Reusser, D. E.; Schewe, J.; Lakes, T.; Kropp, J. P.

2014-10-01

Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models, as well as greenhouse gas scenarios, are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure what is referred to here as AHEAD (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development). Based on a trans-disciplinary sample of concepts addressing human well-being and livelihoods, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows for the uncertainty of climate and impact model projections to be identified and differentiated. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions - and where it is not. The results indicate that livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity in 34 countries. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. The analysis shows that the water-specific uncertainty ranges of the model output are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD for 65 out of 111 countries, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. In 46 of the countries in the analysis, water-specific uncertainty is relevant to AHEAD. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy decisions.

Composite panel development at JPL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcelroy, Paul; Helms, Rich

1988-01-01

Parametric computer studies can be use in a cost effective manner to determine optimized composite mirror panel designs. An InterDisciplinary computer Model (IDM) was created to aid in the development of high precision reflector panels for LDR. The materials properties, thermal responses, structural geometries, and radio/optical precision are synergistically analyzed for specific panel designs. Promising panels designs are fabricated and tested so that comparison with panel test results can be used to verify performance prediction models and accommodate design refinement. The iterative approach of computer design and model refinement with performance testing and materials optimization has shown good results for LDR panels.

Effect of calcium hydroxide and triple antibiotic paste as intracanal medicaments on the incidence of inter-appointment flare-up in diabetic patients: An in vivo study.

PubMed

Pai, Swathi; Vivekananda Pai, A R; Thomas, Manuel S; Bhat, Vishal

2014-05-01

To evaluate and compare the effect of antibacterial intracanal medicaments on inter-appointment flare-up in diabetic patients. Fifty diabetic patients requiring root canal treatment were assigned into groups I, II, and III. In group I, no intracanal medicament was placed. In groups II and III, calcium hydroxide and triple antibiotic pastes were placed as intracanal medicaments, respectively. Patients were instructed to record their pain on days 1, 2, 3, 7, and 14. Inter-appointment flare-up was evaluated using verbal rating scale (VRS). Overall incidence of inter-appointment flare-up among diabetic patients was found to be 16%. In group I, 50% of the patients and in group II, 15% of the patients developed inter-appointment flare-up. However, no patients in group III developed inter-appointment flare-up. The comparison of these results was found to be statistically significant (P = 0.002; χ(2) = 12.426). However, with respect to intergroup comparison, only the difference between groups I and III was found to be statistically significant (P = 0.002; χ(2) = 12.00). Calcium hydroxide and triple antibiotic paste are effective for managing inter-appointment flare-ups in diabetic patients. Triple antibiotic paste is more effective than calcium hydroxide in preventing the occurrence of flare-up in diabetic patients.

Effect of calcium hydroxide and triple antibiotic paste as intracanal medicaments on the incidence of inter-appointment flare-up in diabetic patients: An in vivo study

PubMed Central

Pai, Swathi; Vivekananda Pai, A. R.; Thomas, Manuel S.; Bhat, Vishal

2014-01-01

Aim: To evaluate and compare the effect of antibacterial intracanal medicaments on inter-appointment flare-up in diabetic patients. Materials and Methods: Fifty diabetic patients requiring root canal treatment were assigned into groups I, II, and III. In group I, no intracanal medicament was placed. In groups II and III, calcium hydroxide and triple antibiotic pastes were placed as intracanal medicaments, respectively. Patients were instructed to record their pain on days 1, 2, 3, 7, and 14. Inter-appointment flare-up was evaluated using verbal rating scale (VRS). Results: Overall incidence of inter-appointment flare-up among diabetic patients was found to be 16%. In group I, 50% of the patients and in group II, 15% of the patients developed inter-appointment flare-up. However, no patients in group III developed inter-appointment flare-up. The comparison of these results was found to be statistically significant (P = 0.002; χ2 = 12.426). However, with respect to intergroup comparison, only the difference between groups I and III was found to be statistically significant (P = 0.002; χ2 = 12.00). Conclusions: Calcium hydroxide and triple antibiotic paste are effective for managing inter-appointment flare-ups in diabetic patients. Triple antibiotic paste is more effective than calcium hydroxide in preventing the occurrence of flare-up in diabetic patients. PMID:24944440

Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Compelling Issues for Geophysical Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhbari, M.; Grigg, N. S.; Waskom, R.

2014-12-01

The joint security of water, food, and energy systems is an urgent issue everywhere, and strong drivers of development and land use change, exacerbated by climate change, require new knowledge to achieve integrated solution using a nexus-based approach to assess inter-dependencies. Effective research-based decision support tools are essential to identify the major issues and interconnections to help in implementation of the nexus approach. The major needs are models and data to clearly and unambiguously present decision scenarios to local cooperative groups of farmers, electric energy generators and water officials for joint decisions. These can be developed by integrated models to link hydrology, land use, energy use, cropping simulation, and optimization with economic objectives and socio-physical constraints. The first step in modeling is to have a good conceptual model and then to get data. As the linking of models increases uncertainties, each one should be supplied with adequate data at suitable spatial and temporal resolutions. Most models are supplied with data by geophysical scientists, such as hydrologists, geologists, atmospheric scientists, soil scientists, and climatologists, among others. Outcomes of a recently-completed project to study the water-energy-food nexus will be explained to illuminate the model and data needs to inform future management actions across the nexus. The project included a workshop of experts from government, business, academia, and the non-profit sector who met to define and explain nexus interactions and needs. An example of the findings is that data inconsistencies among sectors create barriers to integrated planning. A nexus-based systems model is needed to outline sectoral inter-dependencies and identify data demands and gaps. Geophysical scientists can help to create this model and take leadership on designing data systems to facilitate sharing and enable integrated management.

The NASA NEESPI Data Portal to Support Studies of Climate and Environmental Changes in Non-Boreal Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory; Loboda, Tatiana; Csiszar, Ivan; Romanov, Peter; Gerasimov, Irina

2008-01-01

NASA NEESPI (Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative) data portal is a NASA funded project that focuses on collecting satellite remote sensing data, providing tools, information, and services in support of NEESPI scientific objectives (Leptoukh, et al., 2007). The data can be accessed online through anonymous ftp, through an advanced data searching and ordering system Mirador that uses keywords to find data quickly in a Google-like interface, and through the Goddard Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure (Giovanni). The portal provides preprocessed data from different satellite sensors and numerical models to the same spatial and temporal resolution and the same projection so that the data can be used easily to perform inter-comparison or relationship studies. In addition, it provides parameter and spatially subsetted data for regional studies. Studies of regional carbon, hydrology, aerosols in non-boreal Europe and their interactions with global climate are very challenging research topics. The NASA NEESPI data portal makes many satellite data available for such studies, including information on land cover types, fire, vegetation index, aerosols, land surface temperature, soil moisture, precipitation, snow/ice, and other parameters. This paper will introduce the features and products available in the system, focusing on the online data 1 tool, Giovanni NEESPI. An example that explores different data through Giovanni NEESPI in temperate region of non-boreal Europe will be presented.

Open database of epileptic EEG with MRI and postoperational assessment of foci--a real world verification for the EEG inverse solutions.

PubMed

Zwoliński, Piotr; Roszkowski, Marcin; Zygierewicz, Jaroslaw; Haufe, Stefan; Nolte, Guido; Durka, Piotr J

2010-12-01

This paper introduces a freely accessible database http://eeg.pl/epi , containing 23 datasets from patients diagnosed with and operated on for drug-resistant epilepsy. This was collected as part of the clinical routine at the Warsaw Memorial Child Hospital. Each record contains (1) pre-surgical electroencephalography (EEG) recording (10-20 system) with inter-ictal discharges marked separately by an expert, (2) a full set of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans for calculations of the realistic forward models, (3) structural placement of the epileptogenic zone, recognized by electrocorticography (ECoG) and post-surgical results, plotted on pre-surgical MRI scans in transverse, sagittal and coronal projections, (4) brief clinical description of each case. The main goal of this project is evaluation of possible improvements of localization of epileptic foci from the surface EEG recordings. These datasets offer a unique possibility for evaluating different EEG inverse solutions. We present preliminary results from a subset of these cases, including comparison of different schemes for the EEG inverse solution and preprocessing. We report also a finding which relates to the selective parametrization of single waveforms by multivariate matching pursuit, which is used in the preprocessing for the inverse solutions. It seems to offer a possibility of tracing the spatial evolution of seizures in time.

MEDSLIK oil spill model recent developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lardner, Robin; Zodiatis, George

2016-04-01

MEDSLIK oil spill model recent developments Robin Lardner and George Zodiatis Oceanography Center, University of Cyprus, 1678 Nicosia, Cyprus MEDSLIK is a well established 3D oil spill model that predicts the transport, fate and weathering of oil spills and is used by several response agencies and institutions around the Mediterranean, the Black seas and worldwide. MEDSLIK has been used operationally for real oil spill accidents and for preparedness in contingency planning within the framework of pilot projects with REMPEC-Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean Sea and EMSA-European Maritime Safety Agency. MEDSLIK has been implemented in many EU funded projects regarding oil spill predictions using the operational ocean forecasts, as for example the ECOOP, NEREIDs, RAOP-Med, EMODNET MedSea Check Point. Within the frame of MEDESS4MS project, MEDSLIK is at the heart of the MEDESS4MS multi model oil spill prediction system. The MEDSLIK oil spill model contains among other, the following features: a built-in database with 240 different oil types characteristics, assimilation of oil slick observations from in-situ or aerial, to correct the predictions, virtual deployment of oil booms and/or oil skimmers/dispersants, continuous or instantaneous oil spills from moving or drifting ships whose slicks merge can be modelled together, multiple oil spill predictions from different locations, backward simulations for tracking the source of oil spill pollution, integration with AIS data upon the availability of AIS data, sub-surface oil spills at any given water depth, coupling with SAR satellite data. The MEDSLIK can be used for operational intervention for any user-selected region in the world if the appropriate coastline, bathymetry and meteo-ocean forecast files are provided. MEDSLIK oil spill model has been extensively validated in the Mediterranean Sea, both in real oil spill incidents (i.e. during the Lebanese oil pollution crisis in summer 2006, the biggest oil pollution event in the Eastern Mediterranean so far) and through inter-comparison using drifters. The quality of the MEDSLIK oil spill model predictions depends on the quality of the meteo-ocean forecasting data that will be used. The guidelines set by the MEDESS4MS project to harmonize the meteo-ocean, oil spill and trajectory models input/output formats are implemented in MEDSLIK to suit the operational oil spill predictions. The output results of the trajectory predictions may available in the MEDESS4MS output standards (XML)and in ASCII, while the images in BMP or PNG, TIF,GIF, JPG (image), in KML (Google Earth).

Inverse modelling of European CH4 emissions during 2006-2012 using different inverse models and reassessed atmospheric observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergamaschi, Peter; Karstens, Ute; Manning, Alistair J.; Saunois, Marielle; Tsuruta, Aki; Berchet, Antoine; Vermeulen, Alexander T.; Arnold, Tim; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Hammer, Samuel; Levin, Ingeborg; Schmidt, Martina; Ramonet, Michel; Lopez, Morgan; Lavric, Jost; Aalto, Tuula; Chen, Huilin; Feist, Dietrich G.; Gerbig, Christoph; Haszpra, László; Hermansen, Ove; Manca, Giovanni; Moncrieff, John; Meinhardt, Frank; Necki, Jaroslaw; Galkowski, Michal; O'Doherty, Simon; Paramonova, Nina; Scheeren, Hubertus A.; Steinbacher, Martin; Dlugokencky, Ed

2018-01-01

We present inverse modelling (top down) estimates of European methane (CH4) emissions for 2006-2012 based on a new quality-controlled and harmonised in situ data set from 18 European atmospheric monitoring stations. We applied an ensemble of seven inverse models and performed four inversion experiments, investigating the impact of different sets of stations and the use of a priori information on emissions. The inverse models infer total CH4 emissions of 26.8 (20.2-29.7) Tg CH4 yr-1 (mean, 10th and 90th percentiles from all inversions) for the EU-28 for 2006-2012 from the four inversion experiments. For comparison, total anthropogenic CH4 emissions reported to UNFCCC (bottom up, based on statistical data and emissions factors) amount to only 21.3 Tg CH4 yr-1 (2006) to 18.8 Tg CH4 yr-1 (2012). A potential explanation for the higher range of top-down estimates compared to bottom-up inventories could be the contribution from natural sources, such as peatlands, wetlands, and wet soils. Based on seven different wetland inventories from the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), total wetland emissions of 4.3 (2.3-8.2) Tg CH4 yr-1 from the EU-28 are estimated. The hypothesis of significant natural emissions is supported by the finding that several inverse models yield significant seasonal cycles of derived CH4 emissions with maxima in summer, while anthropogenic CH4 emissions are assumed to have much lower seasonal variability. Taking into account the wetland emissions from the WETCHIMP ensemble, the top-down estimates are broadly consistent with the sum of anthropogenic and natural bottom-up inventories. However, the contribution of natural sources and their regional distribution remain rather uncertain. Furthermore, we investigate potential biases in the inverse models by comparison with regular aircraft profiles at four European sites and with vertical profiles obtained during the Infrastructure for Measurement of the European Carbon Cycle (IMECC) aircraft campaign. We present a novel approach to estimate the biases in the derived emissions, based on the comparison of simulated and measured enhancements of CH4 compared to the background, integrated over the entire boundary layer and over the lower troposphere. The estimated average regional biases range between -40 and 20 % at the aircraft profile sites in France, Hungary and Poland.

Amino acid racemization dating of fossil bones, I. inter-laboratory comparison of racemization measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bada, J.L.; Hoopes, E.; Darling, D.; Dungworth, G.; Kessels, H.J.; Kvenvolden, K.A.; Blunt, D.J.

1979-01-01

Enantiomeric measurements for aspartic acid, glutamic acid, and alanine in twenty-one different fossil bone samples have been carried out by three different laboratories using different analytical methods. These inter-laboratory comparisons demonstrate that D/L aspartic acid measurements are highly reproducible, whereas the enantiomeric measurements for the other amino acids show a wide variation between the three laboratories. At present, aspartic acid measurements are the most suitable for racemization dating of bone because of their superior analytical precision. ?? 1979.

The InterFrost benchmark of Thermo-Hydraulic codes for cold regions hydrology - first inter-comparison results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grenier, Christophe; Roux, Nicolas; Anbergen, Hauke; Collier, Nathaniel; Costard, Francois; Ferrry, Michel; Frampton, Andrew; Frederick, Jennifer; Holmen, Johan; Jost, Anne; Kokh, Samuel; Kurylyk, Barret; McKenzie, Jeffrey; Molson, John; Orgogozo, Laurent; Rivière, Agnès; Rühaak, Wolfram; Selroos, Jan-Olof; Therrien, René; Vidstrand, Patrik

2015-04-01

The impacts of climate change in boreal regions has received considerable attention recently due to the warming trends that have been experienced in recent decades and are expected to intensify in the future. Large portions of these regions, corresponding to permafrost areas, are covered by water bodies (lakes, rivers) that interact with the surrounding permafrost. For example, the thermal state of the surrounding soil influences the energy and water budget of the surface water bodies. Also, these water bodies generate taliks (unfrozen zones below) that disturb the thermal regimes of permafrost and may play a key role in the context of climate change. Recent field studies and modeling exercises indicate that a fully coupled 2D or 3D Thermo-Hydraulic (TH) approach is required to understand and model the past and future evolution of landscapes, rivers, lakes and associated groundwater systems in a changing climate. However, there is presently a paucity of 3D numerical studies of permafrost thaw and associated hydrological changes, and the lack of study can be partly attributed to the difficulty in verifying multi-dimensional results produced by numerical models. Numerical approaches can only be validated against analytical solutions for a purely thermic 1D equation with phase change (e.g. Neumann, Lunardini). When it comes to the coupled TH system (coupling two highly non-linear equations), the only possible approach is to compare the results from different codes to provided test cases and/or to have controlled experiments for validation. Such inter-code comparisons can propel discussions to try to improve code performances. A benchmark exercise was initialized in 2014 with a kick-off meeting in Paris in November. Participants from USA, Canada, Germany, Sweden and France convened, representing altogether 13 simulation codes. The benchmark exercises consist of several test cases inspired by existing literature (e.g. McKenzie et al., 2007) as well as new ones. They range from simpler, purely thermal cases (benchmark T1) to more complex, coupled 2D TH cases (benchmarks TH1, TH2, and TH3). Some experimental cases conducted in cold room complement the validation approach. A web site hosted by LSCE (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) is an interaction platform for the participants and hosts the test cases database at the following address: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/interfrost. The results of the first stage of the benchmark exercise will be presented. We will mainly focus on the inter-comparison of participant results for the coupled cases (TH1, TH2 & TH3). Further perspectives of the exercise will also be presented. Extensions to more complex physical conditions (e.g. unsaturated conditions and geometrical deformations) are contemplated. In addition, 1D vertical cases of interest to the Climate Modeling community will be proposed. Keywords: Permafrost; Numerical modeling; River-soil interaction; Arctic systems; soil freeze-thaw

interPopula: a Python API to access the HapMap Project dataset

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The HapMap project is a publicly available catalogue of common genetic variants that occur in humans, currently including several million SNPs across 1115 individuals spanning 11 different populations. This important database does not provide any programmatic access to the dataset, furthermore no standard relational database interface is provided. Results interPopula is a Python API to access the HapMap dataset. interPopula provides integration facilities with both the Python ecology of software (e.g. Biopython and matplotlib) and other relevant human population datasets (e.g. Ensembl gene annotation and UCSC Known Genes). A set of guidelines and code examples to address possible inconsistencies across heterogeneous data sources is also provided. Conclusions interPopula is a straightforward and flexible Python API that facilitates the construction of scripts and applications that require access to the HapMap dataset. PMID:21210977

Extra-analytical quality indicators and laboratory performances.

PubMed

Sciacovelli, Laura; Aita, Ada; Plebani, Mario

2017-07-01

In the last few years much progress has been made in raising the awareness of laboratory medicine professionals about the effectiveness of quality indicators (QIs) in monitoring, and improving upon, performances in the extra-analytical phases of the Total Testing Process (TTP). An effective system for management of QIs includes the implementation of an internal assessment system and participation in inter-laboratory comparison. A well-designed internal assessment system allows the identification of critical activities and their systematic monitoring. Active participation in inter-laboratory comparison provides information on the performance level of one laboratory with respect to that of other participating laboratories. In order to guarantee the use of appropriate QIs and facilitate their implementation, many laboratories have adopted the Model of Quality Indicators (MQI) proposed by Working Group "Laboratory Errors and Patient Safety" (WG-LEPS) of IFCC, since 2008, which is the result of international consensus and continuous experimentation, and updating to meet new, constantly emerging needs. Data from participating laboratories are collected monthly and reports describing the statistical results and evaluating laboratory data, utilizing the Six Sigma metric, issued regularly. Although the results demonstrate that the processes need to be improved upon, overall the comparison with data collected in 2014 shows a general stability of quality levels and that an improvement has been achieved over time for some activities. The continuous monitoring of QI data allows identification all possible improvements, thus highlighting the value of participation in the inter-laboratory program proposed by WG-LEPS. The active participation of numerous laboratories will guarantee an ever more significant State-of-the-Art, promote the reduction of errors and improve quality of the TTP, thus guaranteeing patient safety. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Toward an Improved Representation of Middle Atmospheric Dynamics Thanks to the ARISE Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, E.; Ceranna, L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Marchetti, E.; Evers, L. G.; Kvaerna, T.; Lastovicka, J.; Eliasson, L.; Crosby, N. B.; Blanc-Benon, P.; Le Pichon, A.; Brachet, N.; Pilger, C.; Keckhut, P.; Assink, J. D.; Smets, P. S. M.; Lee, C. F.; Kero, J.; Sindelarova, T.; Kämpfer, N.; Rüfenacht, R.; Farges, T.; Millet, C.; Näsholm, S. P.; Gibbons, S. J.; Espy, P. J.; Hibbins, R. E.; Heinrich, P.; Ripepe, M.; Khaykin, S.; Mze, N.; Chum, J.

2018-03-01

This paper reviews recent progress toward understanding the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the framework of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) initiative. The middle atmosphere, integrating the stratosphere and mesosphere, is a crucial region which influences tropospheric weather and climate. Enhancing the understanding of middle atmosphere dynamics requires improved measurement of the propagation and breaking of planetary and gravity waves originating in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Inter-comparison studies have shown large discrepancies between observations and models, especially during unresolved disturbances such as sudden stratospheric warmings for which model accuracy is poorer due to a lack of observational constraints. Correctly predicting the variability of the middle atmosphere can lead to improvements in tropospheric weather forecasts on timescales of weeks to season. The ARISE project integrates different station networks providing observations from ground to the lower thermosphere, including the infrasound system developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification, the Lidar Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change, complementary meteor radars, wind radiometers, ionospheric sounders and satellites. This paper presents several examples which show how multi-instrument observations can provide a better description of the vertical dynamics structure of the middle atmosphere, especially during large disturbances such as gravity waves activity and stratospheric warming events. The paper then demonstrates the interest of ARISE data in data assimilation for weather forecasting and re-analyzes the determination of dynamics evolution with climate change and the monitoring of atmospheric extreme events which have an atmospheric signature, such as thunderstorms or volcanic eruptions.

Inter-model analysis of tsunami-induced coastal currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, Patrick J.; Gately, Kara; Wilson, Rick; Montoya, Luis; Arcas, Diego; Aytore, Betul; Bai, Yefei; Bricker, Jeremy D.; Castro, Manuel J.; Cheung, Kwok Fai; David, C. Gabriel; Dogan, Gozde Guney; Escalante, Cipriano; González-Vida, José Manuel; Grilli, Stephan T.; Heitmann, Troy W.; Horrillo, Juan; Kânoğlu, Utku; Kian, Rozita; Kirby, James T.; Li, Wenwen; Macías, Jorge; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Ortega, Sergio; Pampell-Manis, Alyssa; Park, Yong Sung; Roeber, Volker; Sharghivand, Naeimeh; Shelby, Michael; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Tolkova, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Velioğlu, Deniz; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Zaytsev, Andrey; Zhang, Y. J.

2017-06-01

To help produce accurate and consistent maritime hazard products, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program organized a benchmarking workshop to evaluate the numerical modeling of tsunami currents. Thirteen teams of international researchers, using a set of tsunami models currently utilized for hazard mitigation studies, presented results for a series of benchmarking problems; these results are summarized in this paper. Comparisons focus on physical situations where the currents are shear and separation driven, and are thus de-coupled from the incident tsunami waveform. In general, we find that models of increasing physical complexity provide better accuracy, and that low-order three-dimensional models are superior to high-order two-dimensional models. Inside separation zones and in areas strongly affected by eddies, the magnitude of both model-data errors and inter-model differences can be the same as the magnitude of the mean flow. Thus, we make arguments for the need of an ensemble modeling approach for areas affected by large-scale turbulent eddies, where deterministic simulation may be misleading. As a result of the analyses presented herein, we expect that tsunami modelers now have a better awareness of their ability to accurately capture the physics of tsunami currents, and therefore a better understanding of how to use these simulation tools for hazard assessment and mitigation efforts.

Mid- and long-term debris environment projections using the EVOLVE and CHAIN models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichler, Peter; Reynolds, Robert C.

1995-06-01

Results of debris environment projections are of great importance for the evaluation of the necessity and effectiveness of debris mitigation measures. EVOLVE and CHAIN are two models for debris environment projections that have been developed independently using different conceptual approaches. A comparison of results from these two models therefore provides a means of validating debris environment projections which they have made. EVOLVE is a model that requires mission model projections to describe future space operation; these projections include launch date, mission orbit altitude and inclimation, mission duration, vehicle size and mass, and classification as an object capable of experiencing breakup from on-board stored energy. EVOLVE describes the orbital debris environment by the orbital elements of the objects in the environment. CHAIN is an analytic model that bins the debris environemnt in size and altitude rather than following the orbit evolution of individual debris fragments. The altitude/size bins are coupled by the initial spreading of fragments by collisions and the following orbital decay behavior. A set of test cases covering a variety of space usage scenarios have been defined for the two models. In this paper, a comparison of the results will be presented and sources of disagreement identified and discussed. One major finding is that despite differences in the results of the two models, the basic tendencies of the environment projections are independent of modeled uncertainties, leading to the demand of debris mitigation measures--explosion suppression and de-orbit of rocket bodies and payloads after mission completion.

Global Inter-Laboratory Fecal Source Identification Methods Comparison Study

EPA Science Inventory

Source tracking is key to identifying sources of fecal contamination for remediation as well as risk assessment. Previous intra- and inter-lab studies have investigated the performance of human and cow-associated source tracking markers, as well as library-dependent fecal source ...

The magnetopause at 5.2 R/E/ on August 4, 1972 - Magnetopause shape and structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufmann, R. L.; Cahill, L. J., Jr.

1977-01-01

The relatively large magnitude magnetopause field observed in several crossings associated with the ATS 5 and Explorer 45 satellites on August 4, 1972, is used to examine the structure of the magnetopause. The discussion covers magnetopause normals and their intepretation with respect to the shape of the magnetopause and to waves propagating in the magnetopause; magnetopause structure in terms of the field changes observed during magnetopause passages and of the associated magnetopause electric currents interred from the observations; and comparison of the observations with theoretical properties of open and close magnetopause models. Features necessary for comparison of magnetometer observations with pertinent theories are highlighted.

Optimizing immobilized enzyme performance in cell-free environments to produce liquid fuels.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Sanat

The overall goal of this project was to optimize enzyme performance for the production of bio-diesel fuel. Enzyme immobilization has attracted much attention as a means to increase productivity. Mesorporous silica materials have been known to be best suited for immobilizing enzymes. A major challenge is to ensure that the enzymatic activity is retained after immobilization. Two major factors which drive enzymatic deactivation are protein-surface and inter-protein interactions. Previously, we studied protein stability inside pores and how to optimize protein-surface interactions to minimize protein denaturation. In this work we studied eh effect of surface curvature and chemistry on inter-protein interactions.more » Our goal was to find suitable immobilization supports which minimize these inter-protein interactions. Our studies carried out in the frame work of Hydrophobic-Polar (HP) model showed that enzymes immobilized inside hydrophobic pores of optimal sizes are best suited to minimize these inter-protein interactions. Besides, this study is also of biological importance to understand the role of chaperonins in protein disaggregation. Both of these aspects profited immensely with collaborations with our experimental colleague, Prof. Georges Belfort (RPI), who performed the experimental analog of our theoretical works.« less

Paleoclimate reconstruction along the Pole-Equator-Pole transect of the Americas (PEP 1)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markgraf, Vera; Baumgartner, T.R.; Bradbury, J.P.; Diaz, Henry F.; Dunbar, R.B.; Luckman, B.H.; Seltzer, G.O.; Swetnam, T.W.; Villalba, R.

2000-01-01

Examples are presented of inter-hemispheric comparison of instrumental climate and paleoclimate proxy records from the Americas for different temporal scales. Despite a certain symmetry of seasonal precipitation patterns along the PEP I transect, decadal variability of winter precipitation shows different characteristics in terms of amplitude and frequency in both the last 100 and last 1000 years. Such differences in variability are also seen in a comparison of time series of different El Nino/Southern Oscillation proxy records from North and South America, however, these differences do not appear to affect the spatial correlation with Pacific sea surface temperature patterns. Local and regional differences in response to climate change are even more pronounced for records with lower temporal resolution, and inter-hemispheric synchroneity may or may not be indicative of the same forcing. This aspect is illustrated in an inter-hemispheric comparison of the last 1000 years of glacier variability, and of the full- and lateglacial lake level history.

Development and comparison of metrics for evaluating climate models and estimation of projection uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ring, Christoph; Pollinger, Felix; Kaspar-Ott, Irena; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Paeth, Heiko

2017-04-01

The COMEPRO project (Comparison of Metrics for Probabilistic Climate Change Projections of Mediterranean Precipitation), funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), is dedicated to the development of new evaluation metrics for state-of-the-art climate models. Further, we analyze implications for probabilistic projections of climate change. This study focuses on the results of 4-field matrix metrics. Here, six different approaches are compared. We evaluate 24 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3), 40 of CMIP5 and 18 of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). In addition to the annual and seasonal precipitation the mean temperature is analysed. We consider both 50-year trend and climatological mean for the second half of the 20th century. For the probabilistic projections of climate change A1b, A2 (CMIP3) and RCP4.5, RCP8.5 (CMIP5,CORDEX) scenarios are used. The eight main study areas are located in the Mediterranean. However, we apply our metrics to globally distributed regions as well. The metrics show high simulation quality of temperature trend and both precipitation and temperature mean for most climate models and study areas. In addition, we find high potential for model weighting in order to reduce uncertainty. These results are in line with other accepted evaluation metrics and studies. The comparison of the different 4-field approaches reveals high correlations for most metrics. The results of the metric-weighted probabilistic density functions of climate change are heterogeneous. We find for different regions and seasons both increases and decreases of uncertainty. The analysis of global study areas is consistent with the regional study areas of the Medeiterrenean.

Validation and Application of Pharmacokinetic Models for Interspecies Extrapolations in Toxicity Risk Assessments of Volatile Organics

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-08-30

Ai _.. ;:: -- I. OVERALL OBJECTIVE AND STATEMENT OF WORK The overall objective of the proposed project is to investigate the scientific basis...development and inter-species correlations with toxicity. A second series of tissue disposition experiments will be conducted to determine what ...elimination of halocarbons is hepatic metabolism. If metabolism plays a significant role in the disposition and subsequent neurobehavioral effects of

Effects of diurnal temperature range and drought on wheat yield in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Barrera, S.; Rodriguez-Puebla, C.; Challinor, A. J.

2017-07-01

This study aims to provide new insight on the wheat yield historical response to climate processes throughout Spain by using statistical methods. Our data includes observed wheat yield, pseudo-observations E-OBS for the period 1979 to 2014, and outputs of general circulation models in phase 5 of the Coupled Models Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for the period 1901 to 2099. In investigating the relationship between climate and wheat variability, we have applied the approach known as the partial least-square regression, which captures the relevant climate drivers accounting for variations in wheat yield. We found that drought occurring in autumn and spring and the diurnal range of temperature experienced during the winter are major processes to characterize the wheat yield variability in Spain. These observable climate processes are used for an empirical model that is utilized in assessing the wheat yield trends in Spain under different climate conditions. To isolate the trend within the wheat time series, we implemented the adaptive approach known as Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition. Wheat yields in the twenty-first century are experiencing a downward trend that we claim is a consequence of widespread drought over the Iberian Peninsula and an increase in the diurnal range of temperature. These results are important to inform about the wheat vulnerability in this region to coming changes and to develop adaptation strategies.

Different impacts of mega-ENSO and conventional ENSO on the Indian summer rainfall: developing phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhou, Yefan

2016-04-01

Mega-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a boarder version of conventional ENSO, is found to be a main driving force of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall including the Indian summer rainfall (ISR). The simultaneous impacts of "pure" mega-ENSO and "pure" conventional ENSO events on the ISR in its developing summer remains unclear. This study examines the different linkages between mega-ENSO-ISR and conventional ENSO-ISR. During the developing summer of mega-El Niño, negative rainfall anomalies are seen over the northeastern Indian subcontinent, while the anomalous rainfall pattern is almost the opposite for mega-La Niña; as for the conventional ENSO, the approximate "linear opposite" phenomenon vanishes. Furthermore, the global zonal wave trains anomalous are found at mid-latitude zones, with a local triple circulation pattern over the central-east Eurasia during mega-ENSO events, which might be an explanation of corresponding rainfall response over the Indian Peninsula. Among 106-year historical run (1900-2005) of 9 state-of-the-art models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), HadGEM2-ES performs a promising skill in simulating the anomalous circulation pattern over mid-latitude and central-east Eurasia while CanESM2 cannot. Probably, it is the models' ability of capturing the mega-ENSO-ISR linkage and the characteristic of mega-ENSO that make the difference.

Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Munhoven, Guy; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Betts, Richard; Hickler, Thomas; Steinkamp, Jörg; Ostberg, Sebastian; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Ciais, Philippe; Chang, Jinfeng; Rafique, Rashid; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang

2017-08-01

Simulating vegetation photosynthetic productivity (or gross primary production, GPP) is a critical feature of the biome models used for impact assessments of climate change. We conducted a benchmarking of global GPP simulated by eight biome models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a) with four meteorological forcing datasets (30 simulations), using independent GPP estimates and recent satellite data of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence as a proxy of GPP. The simulated global terrestrial GPP ranged from 98 to 141 Pg C yr-1 (1981-2000 mean); considerable inter-model and inter-data differences were found. Major features of spatial distribution and seasonal change of GPP were captured by each model, showing good agreement with the benchmarking data. All simulations showed incremental trends of annual GPP, seasonal-cycle amplitude, radiation-use efficiency, and water-use efficiency, mainly caused by the CO2 fertilization effect. The incremental slopes were higher than those obtained by remote sensing studies, but comparable with those by recent atmospheric observation. Apparent differences were found in the relationship between GPP and incoming solar radiation, for which forcing data differed considerably. The simulated GPP trends co-varied with a vegetation structural parameter, leaf area index, at model-dependent strengths, implying the importance of constraining canopy properties. In terms of extreme events, GPP anomalies associated with a historical El Niño event and large volcanic eruption were not consistently simulated in the model experiments due to deficiencies in both forcing data and parameterized environmental responsiveness. Although the benchmarking demonstrated the overall advancement of contemporary biome models, further refinements are required, for example, for solar radiation data and vegetation canopy schemes.

Comparisons and Evaluation of Hall Thruster Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-03-20

COVERED (FROM - TO) 20-04-2001 to 20-04-2002 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE comparisons and Evaluation of Hall Thruster Models Unclassified 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Comparisons and Evaluation of Hall Thruster Models 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5d. TASK NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...evaluation of Hall thruster models G. J. M. Hagelaar, J. Bareilles, L. Garrigues, and J.-P. Boeuf CPAT, Bâtiment 3R2, Université Paul Sabatier 118 Route

NASA Giovanni: A Tool for Visualizing, Analyzing, and Inter-Comparing Soil Moisture Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, William; Rui, Hualan; Vollmer, Bruce; deJeu, Richard; Fang, Fan; Lei, Guang-Dih

2012-01-01

There are many existing satellite soil moisture algorithms and their derived data products, but there is no simple way for a user to inter-compare the products or analyze them together with other related data (e.g., precipitation). An environment that facilitates such inter-comparison and analysis would be useful for validation of satellite soil moisture retrievals against in situ data and for determining the relationships between different soil moisture products. The latter relationships are particularly important for applications users, for whom the continuity of soil moisture data, from whatever source, is critical. A recent example was provided by the sudden demise of EOS Aqua AMSR-E and the end of its soil moisture data production, as well as the end of other soil moisture products that had used the AMSR-E brightness temperature data. The purpose of the current effort is to create an environment, as part of the NASA Giovanni family of portals, that facilitates inter-comparisons of soil moisture algorithms and their derived data products.

Impacts of 1, 1.5, and 2 Degree Warming on Arctic Terrestrial Snow and Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derksen, C.; Mudryk, L.; Howell, S.; Flato, G. M.; Fyfe, J. C.; Gillett, N. P.; Sigmond, M.; Kushner, P. J.; Dawson, J.; Zwiers, F. W.; Lemmen, D.; Duguay, C. R.; Zhang, X.; Fletcher, C. G.; Dery, S. J.

2017-12-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the global temperature goal of "holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels." In this study, we utilize multiple gridded snow and sea ice products (satellite retrievals; assimilation systems; physical models driven by reanalyses) and ensembles of climate model simulations to determine the impacts of observed warming, and project the relative impacts of the UNFCC future warming targets on Arctic seasonal terrestrial snow and sea ice cover. Observed changes during the satellite era represent the response to approximately 1°C of global warming. Consistent with other studies, analysis of the observational record (1970's to present) identifies changes including a shorter snow cover duration (due to later snow onset and earlier snow melt), significant reductions in spring snow cover and summer sea ice extent, and the loss of a large proportion of multi-year sea ice. The spatial patterns of observed snow and sea ice loss are coherent across adjacent terrestrial/marine regions. There are strong pattern correlations between snow and temperature trends, with weaker association between sea ice and temperature due to the additional influence of dynamical effects such wind-driven redistribution of sea ice. Climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP-5) multi-model ensemble, large initial condition ensembles of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) , and warming stabilization simulations from CESM were used to identify changes in snow and ice under further increases to 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The model projections indicate these levels of warming will be reached over the coming 2-4 decades. Warming to 1.5°C results in an increase in the number of melting days over snow and sea ice (and resultant increases in snow-free and ice-free duration), which are similar in magnitude to the change from pre-industrial conditions to present day. Continued warming to 2°C further intensifies the cryospheric response consistent with amplified Arctic warming relative to the global average trend.

Water vapor changes under global warming and the linkage to present-day interannual variabilities in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Hanii; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2016-12-01

The fractional water vapor changes under global warming across 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are analyzed. We show that the mean fractional water vapor changes under global warming in the tropical upper troposphere between 300 and 100 hPa range from 12.4 to 28.0 %/K across all models while the fractional water vapor changes are about 5-8 %/K in other regions and at lower altitudes. The "upper-tropospheric amplification" of the water vapor change is primarily driven by a larger temperature increase in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere per degree of surface warming. The relative contributions of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity changes to the water vapor change in each model vary between 71.5 to 131.8 % and 24.8 to -20.1 %, respectively. The inter-model differences in the water vapor change is primarily caused by differences in temperature change, except over the inter-tropical convergence zone within 10°S-10°N where the model differences due to the relative humidity change are significant. Furthermore, we find that there is generally a positive correlation between the rates of water vapor change for long-tem surface warming and those on the interannual time scales. However, the rates of water vapor change under long-term warming have a systematic offset from those on the inter-annual time scales and the dominant contributor to the differences also differs for the two time scales, suggesting caution needs to be taken when inferring long-term water vapor changes from the observed interannual variations.

Simulating the biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts of transient land cover change and wood harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence, Peter J.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Bonan, Gordon B.

To assess the climate impacts of historical and projected land cover change and land use in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) we have developed new time series of transient Community Land Model (CLM4) Plant Functional Type (PFT) parameters and wood harvest parameters. The new parameters capture the dynamics of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) land cover change and wood harvest trajectories for the historical period from 1850 to 2005, and for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) periods from 2006 to 2100. Analysis of the biogeochemical impacts of land cover change in CCSM4 with the parametersmore » found the model produced an historical cumulative land use flux of 148.4 PgC from 1850 to 2005, which was in good agreement with other global estimates of around 156 PgC for the same period. The biogeophysical impacts of only applying the transient land cover change parameters in CCSM4 were cooling of the near surface atmospheric over land by -0.1OC, through increased surface albedo and reduced shortwave radiation absorption. When combined with other transient climate forcings, the higher albedo from land cover change was overwhelmed at global scales by decreases in snow albedo from black carbon deposition and from high latitude warming. At regional scales however the land cover change forcing persisted resulting in reduced warming, with the biggest impacts in eastern North America. The future CCSM4 RCP simulations showed that the CLM4 transient PFT and wood harvest parameters could be used to represent a wide range of human land cover change and land use scenarios. Furthermore, these simulations ranged from the RCP 4.5 reforestation scenario that was able to draw down 82.6 PgC from the atmosphere, to the RCP 8.5 wide scale deforestation scenario that released 171.6 PgC to the atmosphere.« less

Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lissner, T. K.; Reusser, D. E.; Schewe, J.; Lakes, T.; Kropp, J. P.

2014-03-01

Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target-measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models as well as greenhouse gas scenarios are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD). Based on a transdisciplinary sample of influential concepts addressing human well-being, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows identifying and differentiating uncertainty of climate and impact model projections. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions - and where it is not. The results indicate that in many countries today, livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. Moreover, the analysis shows that for 44 out of 111 countries, the water-specific uncertainty ranges are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy-decisions.

Post-Fire Recovery of Eco-Hydrologic Behavior Given Historic and Projected Climate Variability in California Mediterranean Type Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.

2006-12-01

The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.

Filtering and Gridding Satellite Observations of Cloud Variables to Compare with Climate Model Output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitts, K.; Nasiri, S. L.; Smith, N.

2013-12-01

Global climate models have improved considerably over the years, yet clouds still represent a large factor of uncertainty for these models. Comparisons of model-simulated cloud variables with equivalent satellite cloud products are the best way to start diagnosing the differences between model output and observations. Gridded (level 3) cloud products from many different satellites and instruments are required for a full analysis, but these products are created by different science teams using different algorithms and filtering criteria to create similar, but not directly comparable, cloud products. This study makes use of a recently developed uniform space-time gridding algorithm to create a new set of gridded cloud products from each satellite instrument's level 2 data of interest which are each filtered using the same criteria, allowing for a more direct comparison between satellite products. The filtering is done via several variables such as cloud top pressure/height, thermodynamic phase, optical properties, satellite viewing angle, and sun zenith angle. The filtering criteria are determined based on the variable being analyzed and the science question at hand. Each comparison of different variables may require different filtering strategies as no single approach is appropriate for all problems. Beyond inter-satellite data comparison, these new sets of uniformly gridded satellite products can also be used for comparison with model-simulated cloud variables. Of particular interest to this study are the differences in the vertical distributions of ice and liquid water content between the satellite retrievals and model simulations, especially in the mid-troposphere where there are mixed-phase clouds to consider. This presentation will demonstrate the proof of concept through comparisons of cloud water path from Aqua MODIS retrievals and NASA GISS-E2-[R/H] model simulations archived in the CMIP5 data portal.

Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lokupitiya, E.; Denning, A. Scott; Schaefer, K.; Ricciuto, D.; Anderson, R.; Arain, M. A.; Baker, I.; Barr, A. G.; Chen, G.; Chen, J.M.; Ciais, P.; Cook, D.R.; Dietze, M.C.; El Maayar, M.; Fischer, M.; Grant, R.; Hollinger, D.; Izaurralde, C.; Jain, A.; Kucharik, C.J.; Li, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, L.; Matamala, R.; Peylin, P.; Price, D.; Running, S. W.; Sahoo, A.; Sprintsin, M.; Suyker, A.E.; Tian, H.; Tonitto, Christina; Torn, M.S.; Verbeeck, Hans; Verma, S.B.; Xue, Y.

2016-01-01

Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fed sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO2 seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.

Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lokupitiya, E.; Denning, A. S.; Schaefer, K.

2016-06-03

Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fedmore » sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO 2 seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.« less

Evaluation of platelet adhesion and activation on polymers: Round-robin study to assess inter-center variability.

PubMed

Braune, S; Sperling, C; Maitz, M F; Steinseifer, U; Clauser, J; Hiebl, B; Krajewski, S; Wendel, H P; Jung, F

2017-10-01

The regulatory agencies provide recommendations rather than protocols or standard operation procedures for the hemocompatibility evaluation of novel materials e.g. for cardiovascular applications. Thus, there is a lack of specifications with regard to test setups and procedures. As a consequence, laboratories worldwide perform in vitro assays under substantially different test conditions, so that inter-laboratory and inter-study comparisons are impossible. Here, we report about a prospective, randomized and double-blind multicenter trial which demonstrates that standardization of in vitro test protocols allows a reproducible assessment of platelet adhesion and activation from fresh human platelet rich plasma as possible indicators of the thrombogenicity of cardiovascular implants. Standardization of the reported static in vitro setup resulted in a laboratory independent scoring of the following materials: poly(dimethyl siloxane) (PDMS), poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) and poly(tetrafluoro ethylene) (PTFE). The results of this in vitro study provide evidence that inter-laboratory and inter-study comparisons can be achieved for the evaluation of the adhesion and activation of platelets on blood-contacting biomaterials by stringent standardization of test protocols. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Enhancement of Local Climate Analysis Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horsfall, F. M.; Timofeyeva, M. M.; Dutton, J.

2012-12-01

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) will enhance its Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) to incorporate specific capabilities to meet the needs of various users including energy, health, and other communities. LCAT is an online interactive tool that provides quick and easy access to climate data and allows users to conduct analyses at the local level such as time series analysis, trend analysis, compositing, correlation and regression techniques, with others to be incorporated as needed. LCAT uses principles of Artificial Intelligence in connecting human and computer perceptions on application of data and scientific techniques in multiprocessing simultaneous users' tasks. Future development includes expanding the type of data currently imported by LCAT (historical data at stations and climate divisions) to gridded reanalysis and General Circulation Model (GCM) data, which are available on global grids and thus will allow for climate studies to be conducted at international locations. We will describe ongoing activities to incorporate NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS) reanalysis data (CFSR), NOAA model output data, including output from the National Multi Model Ensemble Prediction System (NMME) and longer term projection models, and plans to integrate LCAT into the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and its protocols for accessing model output and observational data to ensure there is no redundancy in development of tools that facilitate scientific advancements and use of climate model information in applications. Validation and inter-comparison of forecast models will be included as part of the enhancement to LCAT. To ensure sustained development, we will investigate options for open sourcing LCAT development, in particular, through the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR).

Time dependent analysis of assay comparability: a novel approach to understand intra- and inter-site variability over time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winiwarter, Susanne; Middleton, Brian; Jones, Barry; Courtney, Paul; Lindmark, Bo; Page, Ken M.; Clark, Alan; Landqvist, Claire

2015-09-01

We demonstrate here a novel use of statistical tools to study intra- and inter-site assay variability of five early drug metabolism and pharmacokinetics in vitro assays over time. Firstly, a tool for process control is presented. It shows the overall assay variability but allows also the following of changes due to assay adjustments and can additionally highlight other, potentially unexpected variations. Secondly, we define the minimum discriminatory difference/ratio to support projects to understand how experimental values measured at different sites at a given time can be compared. Such discriminatory values are calculated for 3 month periods and followed over time for each assay. Again assay modifications, especially assay harmonization efforts, can be noted. Both the process control tool and the variability estimates are based on the results of control compounds tested every time an assay is run. Variability estimates for a limited set of project compounds were computed as well and found to be comparable. This analysis reinforces the need to consider assay variability in decision making, compound ranking and in silico modeling.

Interactive vs. Non-Interactive Multi-Model Ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duane, G. S.

2013-12-01

If the members of an ensemble of different models are allowed to interact with one another in run time, predictive skill can be improved as compared to that of any individual model or any average of indvidual model outputs. Inter-model connections in such an interactive ensemble can be trained, using historical data, so that the resulting ``supermodel' synchronizes with reality when used in weather-prediction mode, where the individual models perform data assimilation from each other (with trainable inter-model 'observation error') as well as from real observations. In climate-projection mode, parameters of the individual models are changed, as might occur from an increase in GHG levels, and one obtains relevant statistical properties of the new supermodel attractor. In simple cases, it has been shown that training of the inter-model connections with the old parameter values gives a supermodel that is still predictive when the parameter values are changed. Here we inquire as to the circumstances under which supermodel performance can be expected to exceed that of the customary weighted average of model outputs. We consider a supermodel formed from quasigeostrophic (QG) channel models with different forcing coefficients, and introduce an effective training scheme for the inter-model connections. We show that the blocked-zonal index cycle is reproduced better by the supermodel than by any non-interactive ensemble in the extreme case where the forcing coefficients of the different models are very large or very small. With realistic differences in forcing coefficients, as would be representative of actual differences among IPCC-class models, the usual linearity assumption is justified and a weighted average of model outputs is adequate. It is therefore hypothesized that supermodeling is likely to be useful in situations where there are qualitative model differences, as arising from sub-gridscale parameterizations, that affect overall model behavior. Otherwise the usual ex post facto averaging will probably suffice. The advantage of supermodeling is seen in statistics such as anticorrelation between blocking activity in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, in the case of the QG channel model, rather than in overall blocking frequency. Likewise in climate models, the advantage of supermodeling is typically manifest in higher-order statistics rather than in quantities such as mean temperature.

Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean

2012-10-01

Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

Monitoring Lake and Reservoir Level: Satellite Observations, Modeling and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Adler, R. F.; Carton, J.

2013-12-01

Satellite measurements of lake and reservoir water levels complement in situ observations by providing stage information for un-gauged basins and by filling data gaps in gauge records. However, different satellite radar altimeter-derived continental water level products may differ significantly owing to choice of satellites and data processing methods. To explore the impacts of these differences, a direct comparison between three different altimeter-based surface water level estimates (USDA/NASA GRLM, LEGOS and ESA-DMU) will be presented and products validated with lake level gauge time series for lakes and reservoirs of a variety of sizes and conditions. The availability of satellite-based rainfall (i.e., TRMM and GPCP) and satellite-based lake/reservoir levels offers exciting opportunities to estimate and monitor the hydrologic properties of the lake systems. Here, a simple water balance model is utilized to relate net freshwater flux on a catchment basin to lake/reservoir level. Focused on tropical lakes and reservoirs it allows a comparison of the flux to altimetric lake level estimates. The combined use of model, satellite-based rainfall, evaporation information and reanalysis products, can be used to output water-level hindcasts and seasonal future forecasts. Such a tool is fundamental for understanding present-day and future variations in lake/reservoir levels and enabling a better understand of climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales. New model-derived water level estimates of lakes and reservoirs, on regional to global scales, would assist communities with interests in climate studies focusing on extreme events, such as floods and droughts, and be important for water resources management.

THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTER-LABORATORY VERIFICATION OF LC-MS LIBRARIES FOR ORGANIC CHEMICALS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN

EPA Science Inventory

The development, verification, and comparison study between LC-MS libraries for two manufacturers’ instruments and a verified protocol are discussed. The LC-MS library protocol was verified through an inter-laboratory study that involved Federal, State, and private laboratories. ...

Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

2015-12-01

The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on regional climate extremes as well. The scenarios generated with the high-resolution model simulation were compared with the coarse resolution CMIP5 model scenarios to identify region specific features that might be better resolved in the former simulation.

Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project. Phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Ruei-Fong; Starr, David O'C.; DeMott, Paul J.; Cotton, Richard; Jensen, Eric; Sassen, Kenneth

2000-01-01

The Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison (CPMC) is a project of the GEWEX Cloud System Study Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (GCSS WG2). The primary goal of this project is to identify cirrus model sensitivities to the state of our knowledge of nucleation and microphysics. Furthermore, the common ground of the findings may provide guidelines for models with simpler cirrus microphysics modules. We focus on the nucleation regimes of the warm (parcel starting at -40 C and 340 hPa) and cold (-60 C and 170 hPa) cases studied in the GCSS WG2 Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project. Nucleation and ice crystal growth were forced through an externally imposed rate of lift and consequent adiabatic cooling. The background haze particles are assumed to be lognormally-distributed H2SO4 particles. Only the homogeneous nucleation mode is allowed to form ice crystals in the HN-ONLY runs; all nucleation modes are switched on in the ALL-MODE runs. Participants were asked to run the HN-lambda-fixed runs by setting lambda = 2 (lambda is further discussed in section 2) or tailoring the nucleation rate calculation in agreement with lambda = 2 (exp 1). The depth of parcel lift (800 m) was set to assure that parcels underwent complete transition through the nucleation regime to a stage of approximate equilibrium between ice mass growth and vapor supplied by the specified updrafts.

Strengthening the management of ESA - the Inter-Directorate Reform of Corporate and Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feustel-Büechl, Jörg; Arend, Harald; Derio, Eric; Infante, Giovanni; Kreiner, Gerhard; Phaler, Jesse; Tabbert, Michael

2007-02-01

ESA has undertaken the Inter-Directorate Reform of Corporate and Risk Management to strengthen the Agency's internal operations. The reform was completed at the end of 2006, encompassing five dedicated projects on Risk Management, Agency-Wide Controlling System, Project Plan and Integrated Project Review, General Budget Structure and Charging Policy, and Corporate Information Systems. It has contributed to improved management of the Agency's internal operations by engaging all internal stakeholders in a common objective, introducing improvements to planning and management methods, elaborating consolidated information structures and tools, contributing to enhanced transparency and accountability, and by providing qualified new policies, processes and tools.

Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephens, Thomas S.; Levinson, Rebecca S.; Brooker, Aaron

Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception ofmore » ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible. Projections by all models were in close agreement only in the first few years. Although the projections from LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, and ParaChoice were in qualitative agreement, there were significant differences in sales shares given by the different models for individual powertrain types, particularly in later years (2030 and later). For example, projected sales shares of conventional spark-ignition vehicles in 2030 for a given scenario ranged from 35% to 74%. Reasons for such differences are discussed, recognizing that these models were not developed to give quantitatively accurate predictions of future sales shares, but to represent vehicles markets realistically and capture the connections between sales and important influences. Model features were also compared at a high level, and suggestions for further comparison of models are given to enable better understanding of how different features and algorithms used in these models may give different projections.« less

An analytical expression for ion velocities at the wall including the sheath electric field and surface biasing for erosion modeling at JET ILW

DOE PAGES

Borodkina, I.; Borodin, D.; Brezinsek, S.; ...

2017-04-12

For simulation of plasma-facing component erosion in fusion experiments, an analytical expression for the ion velocity just before the surface impact including the local electric field and an optional surface biasing effect is suggested. Energy and angular impact distributions and the resulting effective sputtering yields were produced for several experimental scenarios at JET ILW mostly involving PFCs exposed to an oblique magnetic field. The analytic solution has been applied as an improvement to earlier ERO modelling of localized, Be outer limiter, RF-enhanced erosion, modulated by toggling of a remote, however magnetically connected ICRH antenna. The effective W sputtering yields duemore » to D and Be ion impact in Type-I and Type-III ELMs and inter-ELM conditions were also estimated using the analytical approach and benchmarked by spectroscopy. The intra-ELM W sputtering flux increases almost 10 times in comparison to the inter-ELM flux.« less

Overview of Dust Model Inter-comparison (DMIP) in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uno, I.

2004-12-01

Dust transport modeling plays an important role in understanding the recent increase of Asian Dust episodes and its impact to the regional climate system. Several dust models have been developed in several research institutes and government agencies independently since 1990s. Their numerical results either look very similar or different. Those disagreements are caused by difference in dust modules (concepts and basic mechanisms) and atmospheric models (meteorological and transport models). Therefore common understanding of performance and uncertainty of dust erosion and transport models in the Asian region becomes very important. To have a better understanding of dust model application, we proposed the dust model intercomparison under the international cooperation networks as a part of activity of ADEC (Aeolian Dust Experiment on Climate Impact) project research. Current participants are Kyusyu Univ. (Japan), Meteorological Research Institute (Japan), Hong-Kong City Univ. (China), Korean Meteorological Agency METRI (Korea), US Naval Research Laboratory (USA), Chinese Meteorological Agency (China), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (China), Insular Coastal Dynamics (Malta) and Meteorological Service of Canada (Canada). As a case study episode, we set two huge dust storms occurred in March and April 2002. Results from the dust transport model from all the participants are compiled on the same methods and examined the model characteristics against the ground and airborne measurement data. We will also examine the dust model results from the horizontal distribution at specified levels, vertical profiles, concentration at special check point and emission flux at source region, and show the important parameters for dust modeling. In this paper, we will introduce the general overview of this DMIP activity and several important conclusions from this activity.

Forensic analysis of explosives using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS)--part 2: forensic inter-laboratory trial: bulk carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes in a range of chemical compounds (Australia and New Zealand).

PubMed

Benson, Sarah J; Lennard, Christopher J; Maynard, Philip; Hill, David M; Andrew, Anita S; Neal, Ken; Stuart-Williams, Hilary; Hope, Janet; Walker, G Stewart; Roux, Claude

2010-01-01

Comparability of data over time and between laboratories is a key issue for consideration in the development of global databases, and more broadly for quality assurance in general. One mechanism that can be utilized for evaluating traceability is an inter-laboratory trial. This paper addresses an inter-laboratory trial conducted across a number of Australian and New Zealand isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) laboratories. The main objective of this trial was to determine whether IRMS laboratories in these countries would record comparable values for the distributed samples. Four carbon containing and four nitrogen containing compounds were distributed to seven laboratories in Australia and one in New Zealand. The laboratories were requested to analyze the samples using their standard procedures. The data from each laboratory was evaluated collectively using International Standard ISO 13528 (Statistical methods for use in proficiency testing by inter-laboratory comparisons). "Warning signals" were raised against one participant in this trial. "Action signals" requiring corrective action were raised against four participants. These participants reviewed the data and possible sources for the discrepancies. This inter-laboratory trial was successful in providing an initial snapshot of the potential for traceability between the participating laboratories. The statistical methods described in this article could be used as a model for others needing to evaluate stable isotope results derived from multiple laboratories, e.g., inter-laboratory trials/proficiency testing. Ongoing trials will be conducted to improve traceability across the Australian and New Zealand IRMS community.

Through a glass, darkly—comparing VDDT and FVS

Treesearch

Donald C.E. Robinson; Sarah J. Beukema

2012-01-01

Land managers commonly use FVS and VDDT as planning aids. Although complementary, the models differ in their approach to projection, spatial and temporal resolution, simulation units and required input. When both are used, comparison of the model projections helps to identify differences in the assumptions of the two models and hopefully will result in more consistent...

USEtox - The UNEP-SETAC toxicity model: recommended characterisation factors for human toxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity in Life Cycle Impact Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Bachmann, Till M.; Swirsky Gold, Lois

2008-02-03

Background, Aim and Scope. In 2005 a comprehensive comparison of LCIA toxicity characterisation models was initiated by the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative, directly involving the model developers of CalTOX, IMPACT 2002, USES-LCA, BETR, EDIP, WATSON, and EcoSense. In this paper we describe this model-comparison process and its results--in particular the scientific consensus model developed by the model developers. The main objectives of this effort were (i) to identify specific sources of differences between the models' results and structure, (ii) to detect the indispensable model components, and (iii) to build a scientific consensus model from them, representing recommended practice. Methods. Amore » chemical test set of 45 organics covering a wide range of property combinations was selected for this purpose. All models used this set. In three workshops, the model comparison participants identified key fate, exposure and effect issues via comparison of the final characterisation factors and selected intermediate outputs for fate, human exposure and toxic effects for the test set applied to all models. Results. Through this process, we were able to reduce inter-model variation from an initial range of up to 13 orders of magnitude down to no more than 2 orders of magnitude for any substance. This led to the development of USEtox, a scientific consensus model that contains only the most influential model elements. These were, for example, process formulations accounting for intermittent rain, defining a closed or open system environment, or nesting an urban box in a continental box. Discussion. The precision of the new characterisation factors (CFs) is within a factor of 100-1000 for human health and 10-100 for freshwater ecotoxicity of all other models compared to 12 orders of magnitude variation between the CFs of each model respectively. The achieved reduction of inter-model variability by up to 11 orders of magnitude is a significant improvement.Conclusions. USEtox provides a parsimonious and transparent tool for human health and ecosystem CF estimates. Based on a referenced database, it has now been used to calculate CFs for several thousand substances and forms the basis of the recommendations from UNEP-SETAC's Life Cycle Initiative regarding characterization of toxic impacts in Life Cycle Assessment. Recommendations and Perspectives. We provide both recommended and interim (not recommended and to be used with caution) characterisation factors for human health and freshwater ecotoxicity impacts. After a process of consensus building among stakeholders on a broad scale as well as several improvements regarding a wider and easier applicability of the model, USEtox will become available to practitioners for the calculation of further CFs.« less

A soil sampling reference site: the challenge in defining reference material for sampling.

PubMed

de Zorzi, Paolo; Barbizzi, Sabrina; Belli, Maria; Fajgelj, Ales; Jacimovic, Radojko; Jeran, Zvonka; Sansone, Umberto; van der Perk, Marcel

2008-11-01

In the frame of the international SOILSAMP project, funded and coordinated by the Italian Environmental Protection Agency, an agricultural area was established as a reference site suitable for performing soil sampling inter-comparison exercises. The reference site was characterized for trace element content in soil, in terms of the spatial and temporal variability of their mass fraction. Considering that the behaviour of long-lived radionuclides in soil can be expected to be similar to that of some stable trace elements and that the distribution of these trace elements in soil can simulate the distribution of radionuclides, the reference site characterised in term of trace elements, can be also used to compare the soil sampling strategies developed for radionuclide investigations.

A 3-D Finite-Volume Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Model (NIM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jin

2014-05-01

The Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Model (NIM) formulates the latest numerical innovation of the three-dimensional finite-volume control volume on the quasi-uniform icosahedral grid suitable for ultra-high resolution simulations. NIM's modeling goal is to improve numerical accuracy for weather and climate simulations as well as to utilize the state-of-art computing architecture such as massive parallel CPUs and GPUs to deliver routine high-resolution forecasts in timely manner. NIM dynamic corel innovations include: * A local coordinate system remapped spherical surface to plane for numerical accuracy (Lee and MacDonald, 2009), * Grid points in a table-driven horizontal loop that allow any horizontal point sequence (A.E. MacDonald, et al., 2010), * Flux-Corrected Transport formulated on finite-volume operators to maintain conservative positive definite transport (J.-L, Lee, ET. Al., 2010), *Icosahedral grid optimization (Wang and Lee, 2011), * All differentials evaluated as three-dimensional finite-volume integrals around the control volume. The three-dimensional finite-volume solver in NIM is designed to improve pressure gradient calculation and orographic precipitation over complex terrain. NIM dynamical core has been successfully verified with various non-hydrostatic benchmark test cases such as internal gravity wave, and mountain waves in Dynamical Cores Model Inter-comparisons Projects (DCMIP). Physical parameterizations suitable for NWP are incorporated into NIM dynamical core and successfully tested with multimonth aqua-planet simulations. Recently, NIM has started real data simulations using GFS initial conditions. Results from the idealized tests as well as real-data simulations will be shown in the conference.

Sea Surface Temperature of the mid-Piacenzian Ocean: A Data-Model Comparison

PubMed Central

Dowsett, Harry J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chandler, Mark A.; Sohl, Linda E.; Bentsen, Mats; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Chan, Wing-Le; Contoux, Camille; Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Jonas, Jeff A.; Jost, Anne; Kamae, Youichi; Lohmann, Gerrit; Lunt, Daniel J.; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Ramstein, Gilles; Riesselman, Christina R.; Robinson, Marci M.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Stepanek, Christian; Strother, Stephanie L.; Ueda, Hiroaki; Yan, Qing; Zhang, Zhongshi

2013-01-01

The mid-Piacenzian climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth relative to the last million years, and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21st century. As such, it represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) with the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional and dynamic situations where there is discord between the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and the climate model simulations. These differences have led to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. PMID:23774736

Inter-hemispheric functional connectivity disruption in children with prenatal alcohol exposure

PubMed Central

Wozniak, Jeffrey R.; Mueller, Bryon A.; Muetzel, Ryan L.; Bell, Christopher J.; Hoecker, Heather L.; Nelson, Miranda L.; Chang, Pi-Nian; Lim, Kelvin O.

2010-01-01

Background MRI studies, including recent diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) studies, have shown corpus callosum abnormalities in children prenatally exposed to alcohol, especially in the posterior regions. These abnormalities appear across the range of Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (FASD). Several studies have demonstrated cognitive correlates of callosal abnormalities in FASD including deficits in visual-motor skill, verbal learning, and executive functioning. The goal of this study was to determine if inter-hemispheric structural connectivity abnormalities in FASD are associated with disrupted inter-hemispheric functional connectivity and disrupted cognition. Methods Twenty-one children with FASD and 23 matched controls underwent a six minute resting-state functional MRI scan as well as anatomical imaging and DTI. Using a semiautomated method, we parsed the corpus callosum and delineated seven inter-hemispheric white matter tracts with DTI tractography. Cortical regions of interest (ROIs) at the distal ends of these tracts were identified. Right-left correlations in resting fMRI signal were computed for these sets of ROIs and group comparisons were done. Correlations with facial dysmorphology, cognition, and DTI measures were computed. Results A significant group difference in inter-hemispheric functional connectivity was seen in a posterior set of ROIs, the para-central region. Children with FASD had functional connectivity that was 12% lower than controls in this region. Sub-group analyses were not possible due to small sample size, but the data suggest that there were effects across the FASD spectrum. No significant association with facial dysmorphology was found. Para-central functional connectivity was significantly correlated with DTI mean diffusivity, a measure of microstructural integrity, in posterior callosal tracts in controls but not in FASD. Significant correlations were seen between these structural and functional measures and Wechsler perceptual reasoning ability. Conclusions Inter-hemispheric functional connectivity disturbances were observed in children with FASD relative to controls. The disruption was measured in medial parietal regions (para-central) that are connected by posterior callosal fiber projections. We have previously shown microstructural abnormalities in these same posterior callosal regions and the current study suggests a possible relationship between the two. These measures have clinical relevance as they are associated with cognitive functioning. PMID:21303384

Snow Microwave Radiative Transfer (SMRT): A new model framework to simulate snow-microwave interactions for active and passive remote sensing applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loewe, H.; Picard, G.; Sandells, M. J.; Mätzler, C.; Kontu, A.; Dumont, M.; Maslanka, W.; Morin, S.; Essery, R.; Lemmetyinen, J.; Wiesmann, A.; Floury, N.; Kern, M.

2016-12-01

Forward modeling of snow-microwave interactions is widely used to interpret microwave remote sensing data from active and passive sensors. Though different models are yet available for that purpose, a joint effort has been undertaken in the past two years within the ESA Project "Microstructural origin of electromagnetic signatures in microwave remote sensing of snow". The new Snow Microwave Radiative Transfer (SMRT) model primarily facilitates a flexible treatment of snow microstructure as seen by X-ray tomography and seeks to unite respective advantages of existing models. In its main setting, SMRT considers radiation transfer in a plane-parallel snowpack consisting of homogeneous layers with a layer microstructure represented by an autocorrelation function. The electromagnetic model, which underlies permittivity, absorption and scattering calculations within a layer, is based on the improved Born approximation. The resulting vector-radiative transfer equation in the snowpack is solved using spectral decomposition of the discrete ordinates discretization. SMRT is implemented in Python and employs an object-oriented, modular design which intends to i) provide an intuitive and fail-safe API for basic users ii) enable efficient community developments for extensions (e.g. for improvements of sub-models for microstructure, permittivity, soil or interface reflectivity) from advanced users and iii) encapsulate the numerical core which is maintained by the developers. For cross-validation and inter-model comparison, SMRT implements various ingredients of existing models as selectable options (e.g. Rayleigh or DMRT-QCA phase functions) and shallow wrappers to invoke legacy model code directly (MEMLS, DMRT-QMS, HUT). In this paper we give an overview of the model components and show examples and results from different validation schemes.

A New CCI ECV Release (v2.0) to Accurately Measure the Sea Level Change (1993-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, J.; Cazenave, A. A.; Ablain, M.; Gilles, G.; Johannessen, J. A.; Scharffenberg, M. G.; Timms, G.; Andersen, O. B.; Cipollini, P.; Roca, M.; Rudenko, S.; Fernandes, J.; Balmaseda, M.; Quartly, G.; Fenoglio Marc, L.; Meyssignac, B.; Benveniste, J.; Ambrozio, A.; Restano, M.

2016-12-01

Accurate monitoring of the sea level is required to better understand its variability and changes. Sea level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing a long-term homogeneous and accurate sea level record. The needs and feedback of the climate research community have been collected and a first version of the sea level ECV product has been generated with the best algorithms and altimeter standards. This record (1993-2014) has been validated by the climate research community. Within phase II (2014-2016), the 15 partner consortium has prepared the production of a new reprocessed homogeneous and accurate altimeter sea level record which will be distributed in Autumn 2016. New level 2 altimeter standards developed and tested within the project as well as external contributions have been identified, processed and evaluated by comparison with a reference for different altimeter missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 & 2, ERS-1 & 2, Envisat and GFO). The main evolutions are associated with the wet troposphere correction (based on the GPD+ algorithm including inter calibration with respect to external sensors) but also to the orbit solutions (POE-E and GFZ15), the ERA-Interim based atmospheric corrections and the FES2014 ocean tide model. A new pole tide solution is used and anomalies are referenced to the MSS DTU15. The presentation will focus on the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level project and on the description of the new SL_cci ECV release covering 1993-2015. The major steps required to produce the reprocessed 23 year climate time series will be described. The impacts of the selected level 2 altimeter standards on the SL_cci ECV have been assessed on different spatial scales (global, regional, mesoscale) and temporal scales (long-term, inter-annual, periodic). A significant improvement is expected compared to the current v1.1, with the main impacts observed on the long-term evolution on decadal time scale, on global and regional scales, and for mesoscale signals. The results from product validation, carried out by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community will be also presented.

Employee Responses to Flexible Work Schedules: An Inter-Organization, Inter-System Comparison.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pierce, Jon L.; Newstrom, John W.

1982-01-01

Compared employee affective and behavioral responses to four work schedules--a fixed-hour schedule and three variations of flexible working hours. Hypothesized systematic differences in employee responses reflecting increased flexibility were not supported. Employees generally responded more favorably to flexible hour systems as contrasted with…

Asynchrony in the inter-annual recruitment of lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis in the Great Lakes region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zischke, Mitchell T.; Bunnell, David B.; Troy, Cary D.; Berglund, Eric K.; Caroffino, David C.; Ebener, Mark P.; He, Ji X.; Sitar, Shawn P.; Hook, Tomas O.

2017-01-01

Spatially separated fish populations may display synchrony in annual recruitment if the factors that drive recruitment success, particularly abiotic factors such as temperature, are synchronised across broad spatial scales. We examined inter-annual variation in recruitment among lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) populations in lakes Huron, Michigan and Superior using fishery-dependent and -independent data from 1971 to 2014. Relative year-class strength (RYCS) was calculated from catch-curve residuals for each year class across multiple sampling years. Pairwise comparison of RYCS among datasets revealed no significant associations either within or between lakes, suggesting that recruitment of lake whitefish is spatially asynchronous. There was no consistent correlation between pairwise agreement and the distance between datasets, and models to estimate the spatial scale of recruitment synchrony did not fit well to these data. This suggests that inter-annual recruitment variation of lake whitefish is asynchronous across broad spatial scales in the Great Lakes. While our method primarily evaluated year-to-year recruitment variation, it is plausible that recruitment of lake whitefish varies at coarser temporal scales (e.g. decadal). Nonetheless, our findings differ from research on some other Coregonus species and suggest that local biotic or density-dependent factors may contribute strongly to lake whitefish recruitment rather than inter-annual variability in broad-scale abiotic factors.

Time manages interference in visual short-term memory.

PubMed

Smith, Amy V; McKeown, Denis; Bunce, David

2017-09-01

Emerging evidence suggests that age-related declines in memory may reflect a failure in pattern separation, a process that is believed to reduce the encoding overlap between similar stimulus representations during memory encoding. Indeed, behavioural pattern separation may be indexed by a visual continuous recognition task in which items are presented in sequence and observers report for each whether it is novel, previously viewed (old), or whether it shares features with a previously viewed item (similar). In comparison to young adults, older adults show a decreased pattern separation when the number of items between "old" and "similar" items is increased. Yet the mechanisms of forgetting underpinning this type of recognition task are yet to be explored in a cognitively homogenous group, with careful control over the parameters of the task, including elapsing time (a critical variable in models of forgetting). By extending the inter-item intervals, number of intervening items and overall decay interval, we observed in a young adult sample (N = 35, M age  = 19.56 years) that the critical factor governing performance was inter-item interval. We argue that tasks using behavioural continuous recognition to index pattern separation in immediate memory will benefit from generous inter-item spacing, offering protection from inter-item interference.

Novel inter and intra prediction tools under consideration for the emerging AV1 video codec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Urvang; Mukherjee, Debargha; Han, Jingning; Chen, Yue; Parker, Sarah; Su, Hui; Chiang, Angie; Xu, Yaowu; Liu, Zoe; Wang, Yunqing; Bankoski, Jim; Wang, Chen; Keyder, Emil

2017-09-01

Google started the WebM Project in 2010 to develop open source, royalty- free video codecs designed specifically for media on the Web. The second generation codec released by the WebM project, VP9, is currently served by YouTube, and enjoys billions of views per day. Realizing the need for even greater compression efficiency to cope with the growing demand for video on the web, the WebM team embarked on an ambitious project to develop a next edition codec AV1, in a consortium of major tech companies called the Alliance for Open Media, that achieves at least a generational improvement in coding efficiency over VP9. In this paper, we focus primarily on new tools in AV1 that improve the prediction of pixel blocks before transforms, quantization and entropy coding are invoked. Specifically, we describe tools and coding modes that improve intra, inter and combined inter-intra prediction. Results are presented on standard test sets.

SU-E-J-252: Reproducibility of Radiogenomic Image Features: Comparison of Two Semi-Automated Segmentation Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, M; Woo, B; Kim, J

Purpose: Objective and reliable quantification of imaging phenotype is an essential part of radiogenomic studies. We compared the reproducibility of two semi-automatic segmentation methods for quantitative image phenotyping in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). Methods: MRI examinations with T1 post-gadolinium and FLAIR sequences of 10 GBM patients were downloaded from the Cancer Image Archive site. Two semi-automatic segmentation tools with different algorithms (deformable model and grow cut method) were used to segment contrast enhancement, necrosis and edema regions by two independent observers. A total of 21 imaging features consisting of area and edge groups were extracted automaticallymore » from the segmented tumor. The inter-observer variability and coefficient of variation (COV) were calculated to evaluate the reproducibility. Results: Inter-observer correlations and coefficient of variation of imaging features with the deformable model ranged from 0.953 to 0.999 and 2.1% to 9.2%, respectively, and the grow cut method ranged from 0.799 to 0.976 and 3.5% to 26.6%, respectively. Coefficient of variation for especially important features which were previously reported as predictive of patient survival were: 3.4% with deformable model and 7.4% with grow cut method for the proportion of contrast enhanced tumor region; 5.5% with deformable model and 25.7% with grow cut method for the proportion of necrosis; and 2.1% with deformable model and 4.4% with grow cut method for edge sharpness of tumor on CE-T1W1. Conclusion: Comparison of two semi-automated tumor segmentation techniques shows reliable image feature extraction for radiogenomic analysis of GBM patients with multiparametric Brain MRI.« less

Quantifying tobacco related health care expenditures in the Republic of the Marshall Islands: a case study in determining health costs in a developing US associated island nation.

PubMed

Palafox, N A; Ou, A C; Haberle, H; Chen, T H

2001-01-01

This case study examines the advantages, disadvantages, and utility of three research methods to measure the medical costs of tobacco use in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). The authors used the morbidity-based models, models based on the difference in utilization of medical facilities between smokers and non-smokers, and models of inter-country comparisons. In the RMI, morbidity models would have a propensity to grossly under-estimate the medical costs of tobacco use. Models that measure the difference in medical service utilization between smokers and non-smokers can be confounded by cultural factors and by the level of health care that is provided. The RMI population structure affected the sampling methods. The external validity of the survey instrument may be increased through measuring more parameters with greater precision. Inter-country comparisons may be used to approximate and set upper and lower limits of costs for past medical costs, and may be the only method to determine future health care costs from tobacco use. Determining medical costs of tobacco use in an US Associated island nation with an under-developed health care infrastructure has not been previously attempted. There were significant methodological challenges that were encountered. Health, economic, cultural, and research environments in the RMI are unique and require innovative methods to determine medical costs associated with tobacco use. Direct application of the methodologies utilized in the United States to determine medical costs of tobacco use may grossly under-estimate the medical cost of tobacco use in the RMI. The research challenges can be addressed.

Statistical emulators of maize, rice, soybean and wheat yields from global gridded crop models

DOE PAGES

Blanc, Élodie

2017-01-26

This study provides statistical emulators of crop yields based on global gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Fast Track project. The ensemble of simulations is used to build a panel of annual crop yields from five crop models and corresponding monthly summer weather variables for over a century at the grid cell level globally. This dataset is then used to estimate, for each crop and gridded crop model, the statistical relationship between yields, temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide. This study considers a new functional form to better capture the non-linear response of yields to weather,more » especially for extreme temperature and precipitation events, and now accounts for the effect of soil type. In- and out-of-sample validations show that the statistical emulators are able to replicate spatial patterns of yields crop levels and changes overtime projected by crop models reasonably well, although the accuracy of the emulators varies by model and by region. This study therefore provides a reliable and accessible alternative to global gridded crop yield models. By emulating crop yields for several models using parsimonious equations, the tools provide a computationally efficient method to account for uncertainty in climate change impact assessments.« less

Statistical emulators of maize, rice, soybean and wheat yields from global gridded crop models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanc, Élodie

This study provides statistical emulators of crop yields based on global gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Fast Track project. The ensemble of simulations is used to build a panel of annual crop yields from five crop models and corresponding monthly summer weather variables for over a century at the grid cell level globally. This dataset is then used to estimate, for each crop and gridded crop model, the statistical relationship between yields, temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide. This study considers a new functional form to better capture the non-linear response of yields to weather,more » especially for extreme temperature and precipitation events, and now accounts for the effect of soil type. In- and out-of-sample validations show that the statistical emulators are able to replicate spatial patterns of yields crop levels and changes overtime projected by crop models reasonably well, although the accuracy of the emulators varies by model and by region. This study therefore provides a reliable and accessible alternative to global gridded crop yield models. By emulating crop yields for several models using parsimonious equations, the tools provide a computationally efficient method to account for uncertainty in climate change impact assessments.« less

Consistent global responses of marine ecosystems to future climate change across the IPCC AR5 earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabré, Anna; Marinov, Irina; Leung, Shirley

2015-09-01

We analyze for the first time all 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with explicit marine ecological modules to identify the common mechanisms involved in projected phytoplankton biomass, productivity, and organic carbon export changes over the twenty-first century in the RCP8.5 scenario (years 2080-2099) compared to the historical scenario (years 1980-1999). All models predict decreases in primary and export production globally of up to 30 % of the historical value. We divide the ocean into biomes using upwelling velocities, sea-ice coverage, and maximum mixed layer depths. Models generally show expansion of subtropical, oligotrophic biomes and contraction of marginal sea-ice biomes. The equatorial and subtropical biomes account for 77 % of the total modern oceanic primary production (PP), but contribute 117 % to the global drop in PP, slightly compensated by an increase in PP in high latitudes. The phytoplankton productivity response to climate is surprisingly similar across models in low latitude biomes, indicating a common set of modeled processes controlling productivity changes. Ecological responses are less consistent across models in the subpolar and sea-ice biomes. Inter-hemispheric asymmetries in physical drivers result in stronger climate-driven relative decreases in biomass, productivity, and export of organic matter in the northern compared to the southern hemisphere low latitudes. The export ratio, a measure of the efficiency of carbon export to the deep ocean, decreases across low and mid-latitude biomes and models with more than one phytoplankton type, particularly in the northern hemisphere. Inter-model variability is much higher for biogeochemical than physical variables in the historical period, but is very similar among predicted 100-year biogeochemical and physical changes. We include detailed biome-by-biome analyses, discuss the decoupling between biomass, productivity and export across biomes and models, and present statistical significance and consistency across models using a novel technique based on bootstrapping combined with a weighting scheme based on similarity across models.

Postcards from the edge: Trash-2-Cash communication tools used to support inter-disciplinary work towards a design driven material innovation (DDMI) methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earley, R.; Hornbuckle, R.

2017-10-01

In this paper postcards from the EU funded Horizon 2020 Trash-2-Cash (2015-2018) project - completed by workshop participants - are presented in three tables with a focus on how they contributed to the building of communication channels, shared understanding and methods in this inter-disciplinary consortium work. The Trash-2-Cash project aims to support better waste utilisation, improve material efficiency, contribute to reduction of landfill area needs, whilst also producing high-value commercial products. Novel materials will drive the generation of new textile fibres that will utilize paper and textile fibre waste, originating from continuously increasing textile consumption. The inter-disciplanarity of the participants is key to achieving the project aims - but communication between sectors is challenging due to diverse expertise and levels of experience; language and cultural differences can also be barriers to collaboration as well. Designing easy and accessible, even fun, communication tools are one of the ways to help build relationships. The cards reviewed were used in Prato (November 2015), Helsinki (February 2016) and London (November 2016). This paper concludes with insights for the ongoing development of the project communications work towards the Design Driven Material Innovation (DDMI) methodology, due to be presented at the end of the project in 2018.

Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model, Supplement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kimmel, William M. (Technical Monitor); Smith, Jeremy C.; Dollyhigh, Samuel M.

2004-01-01

The Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model was developed as an implementation of the Fratar algorithm to project future traffic flow between airports in a system and of then scheduling the additional flights to reflect current passenger time-of-travel preferences. The methodology produces an unconstrained future schedule from a current (or baseline) schedule and the airport operations growth rates. As an example of the use of the model, future schedules are projected for 2010 and 2022 for all flights arriving at, departing from, or flying between all continental United States airports that had commercial scheduled service for May 17, 2002. Inter-continental US traffic and airports are included and the traffic is also grown with the Fratar methodology to account for their arrivals and departures to the continental US airports. Input data sets derived from the Official Airline Guide (OAG) data and FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) are included in the examples of the computer code execution.

Inter-annual variability of the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation in Med-CORDEX simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vittoria Struglia, Maria; Adani, Mario; Carillo, Adriana; Pisacane, Giovanna; Sannino, Gianmaria; Beuvier, Jonathan; Lovato, Tomas; Sevault, Florence; Vervatis, Vassilios

2016-04-01

Recent atmospheric reanalysis products, such as ERA40 and ERA-interim, and their regional dynamical downscaling prompted the HyMeX/Med-CORDEX community to perform hind-cast simulations of the Mediterranean Sea, giving the opportunity to evaluate the response of different ocean models to a realistic inter-annual atmospheric forcing. Ocean numerical modeling studies have been steadily improving over the last decade through hind-cast processing, and are complementary to observations in studying the relative importance of the mechanisms playing a role in ocean variability, either external forcing or internal ocean variability. This work presents a review and an inter-comparison of the most recent hind-cast simulations of the Mediterranean Sea Circulation, produced in the framework of the Med-CORDEX initiative, at resolutions spanning from 1/8° to 1/16°. The richness of the simulations available for this study is exploited to address the effects of increasing resolution, both of models and forcing, the initialization procedure, and the prescription of the atmospheric boundary conditions, which are particularly relevant in order to model a realistic THC, in the perspective of fully coupled regional ocean-atmosphere models. The mean circulation is well reproduced by all the simulations. However, it can be observed that the horizontal resolution of both atmospheric forcing and ocean model plays a fundamental role in the reproduction of some specific features of both sub-basins and important differences can be observed among low and high resolution atmosphere forcing. We analyze the mean circulation on both the long-term and decadal time scale, and the represented inter-annual variability of intermediate and deep water mass formation processes in both the Eastern and Western sub-basins, finding that models agree with observations in correspondence of specific events, such as the 1992-1993 Eastern Mediterranean Transient, and the 2005-2006 event in the Gulf of Lion. Long-term trends of the hydrological properties have been investigated at sub-basin scale and have been interpreted in terms of response to forcing and boundary conditions, detectable differences resulting mainly due either to the different initialization and spin up procedure or to the different prescription of Atlantic boundary conditions.

Comparison of three artificial intelligence techniques for discharge routing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatibi, Rahman; Ghorbani, Mohammad Ali; Kashani, Mahsa Hasanpour; Kisi, Ozgur

2011-06-01

SummaryThe inter-comparison of three artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are presented using the results of river flow/stage timeseries, that are otherwise handled by traditional discharge routing techniques. These models comprise Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Adaptive Nero-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Genetic Programming (GP), which are for discharge routing of Kizilirmak River, Turkey. The daily mean river discharge data with a period between 1999 and 2003 were used for training and testing the models. The comparison includes both visual and parametric approaches using such statistic as Coefficient of Correlation (CC), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Relative Error (MSRE), as well as a basic scoring system. Overall, the results indicate that ANN and ANFIS have mixed fortunes in discharge routing, and both have different abilities in capturing and reproducing some of the observed information. However, the performance of GP displays a better edge over the other two modelling approaches in most of the respects. Attention is given to the information contents of recorded timeseries in terms of their peak values and timings, where one performance measure may capture some of the information contents but be ineffective in others. Thus, this makes a case for compiling knowledge base for various modelling techniques.

"Discover Diversities": A Trans-Inter-Disciplinary (SEMEP) Project for Different School Levels and Teachers' Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pilo, Miranda; Gavio, Brigitte; Scaldarella, Elda; Di Carlo, Caterina; Martorano, Daniela

2011-01-01

"Discover Diversities" is a wide thematic developed within the SEMEP (South-Eastern Mediterranean Environmental Project) project, supported by UNESCO (United Nation Education, Science and Culture Organization). SEMEP is essentially a project for science education, focusing on Mediterranean environment. As the Mediterranean has been the…

Project Pride Evaluation Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jennewein, Marilyn; And Others

Project PRIDE (Probe, Research, Inquire, Discover, and Evaluate) is evaluated in this report to provide data to be used as a learning tool for project staff and student participants. Major objectives of the project are to provide an inter-disciplinary, objective approach to the study of the American heritage, and to incorporate methods and…

A successful model for longitudinal community-engaged health research: the 2040 Partners for Health Student Program.

PubMed

Redman, Romany M; Reinsvold, Magdalena C; Reddy, Anireddy; Bennett, Paige E; Hoerauf, Janine M; Puls, Kristina M; Ovrutsky, Alida R; Ly, Alexandra R; White, Gregory; McNeil, Owetta; Meredith, Janet J

2017-06-01

Community-based participatory research [CBPR] is an emerging approach to collaborative research aimed at creating locally effective and sustainable interventions. The 2040 Partners for Health student program was developed as a unique model of longitudinal CBPR. Analysis of this program and its components illuminates both the challenges and the opportunities inherent in community engagement. The program rests on a foundation of a community-based, non-profit organization and a supportive academic university centre. Inter-professional health students and community members of underserved populations work together on different health projects by employing an adapted CBPR methodology. Three successful examples of sustainable CBPR projects are briefly described. The three projects are presented as primary outcomes resulting from this model. Benefits and challenges of the model as an approach to community-engaged research are discussed as well as secondary benefits of student participation. The 2040 Partners for Health student program represents a successful model of CBPR, illuminating common challenges and reiterating the profound value of community-engaged research. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Test of High-resolution Global and Regional Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, Georgiy; Nikulin, Grigory; Hansson, Ulf; Kjellström, Erik; Raj, Jerry; Bangalath, Hamza; Osipov, Sergey

2014-05-01

In scope of CORDEX project we have simulated the past (1975-2005) and future (2006-2050) climates using the GFDL global high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM) and the Rossby Center nested regional model RCA4 for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Both global and nested runs were performed with roughly the same spatial resolution of 25 km in latitude and longitude, and were driven by the 2°x2.5°-resolution fields from GFDL ESM2M IPCC AR5 runs. The global HIRAM simulations could naturally account for interaction of regional processes with the larger-scale circulation features like Indian Summer Monsoon, which is lacking from regional model setup. Therefore in this study we specifically address the consistency of "global" and "regional" downscalings. The performance of RCA4, HIRAM, and ESM2M is tested based on mean, extreme, trends, seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface temperature, precipitation, and winds. The impact of climate change on dust storm activity, extreme precipitation and water resources is specifically addressed. We found that the global and regional climate projections appear to be quite consistent for the modeled period and differ more significantly from ESM2M than between each other.

Role of soil-to-leaf tritium transfer in controlling leaf tritium dynamics: Comparison of experimental garden and tritium-transfer model results.

PubMed

Ota, Masakazu; Kwamena, Nana-Owusua A; Mihok, Steve; Korolevych, Volodymyr

2017-11-01

Environmental transfer models assume that organically-bound tritium (OBT) is formed directly from tissue-free water tritium (TFWT) in environmental compartments. Nevertheless, studies in the literature have shown that measured OBT/HTO ratios in environmental samples are variable and generally higher than expected. The importance of soil-to-leaf HTO transfer pathway in controlling the leaf tritium dynamics is not well understood. A model inter-comparison of two tritium transfer models (CTEM-CLASS-TT and SOLVEG-II) was carried out with measured environmental samples from an experimental garden plot set up next to a tritium-processing facility. The garden plot received one of three different irrigation treatments - no external irrigation, irrigation with low tritium water and irrigation with high tritium water. The contrast between the results obtained with the different irrigation treatments provided insights into the impact of soil-to-leaf HTO transfer on the leaf tritium dynamics. Concentrations of TFWT and OBT in the garden plots that were not irrigated or irrigated with low tritium water were variable, responding to the arrival of the HTO-plume from the tritium-processing facility. In contrast, for the plants irrigated with high tritium water, the TFWT concentration remained elevated during the entire experimental period due to a continuous source of high HTO in the soil. Calculated concentrations of OBT in the leaves showed an initial increase followed by quasi-equilibration with the TFWT concentration. In this quasi-equilibrium state, concentrations of OBT remained elevated and unchanged despite the arrivals of the plume. These results from the model inter-comparison demonstrate that soil-to-leaf HTO transfer significantly affects tritium dynamics in leaves and thereby OBT/HTO ratio in the leaf regardless of the atmospheric HTO concentration, only if there is elevated HTO concentrations in the soil. The results of this work indicate that assessment models should be refined to consider the importance of soil-to-leaf HTO transfer to ensure that dose estimates are accurate and conservative. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variability and epistemic uncertainty in water ingestion rates and pharmacokinetic parameters, and impact on the association between perfluorooctanoate and preeclampsia in the C8 Health Project population.

PubMed

Avanasi, Raghavendhran; Shin, Hyeong-Moo; Vieira, Veronica M; Bartell, Scott M

2016-04-01

We recently utilized a suite of environmental fate and transport models and an integrated exposure and pharmacokinetic model to estimate individual perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) serum concentrations, and also assessed the association of those concentrations with preeclampsia for participants in the C8 Health Project (a cross-sectional study of over 69,000 people who were environmentally exposed to PFOA near a major U.S. fluoropolymer production facility located in West Virginia). However, the exposure estimates from this integrated model relied on default values for key independent exposure parameters including water ingestion rates, the serum PFOA half-life, and the volume of distribution for PFOA. The aim of the present study is to assess the impact of inter-individual variability and epistemic uncertainty in these parameters on the exposure estimates and subsequently, the epidemiological association between PFOA exposure and preeclampsia. We used Monte Carlo simulation to propagate inter-individual variability/epistemic uncertainty in the exposure assessment and reanalyzed the epidemiological association. Inter-individual variability in these parameters mildly impacted the serum PFOA concentration predictions (the lowest mean rank correlation between the estimated serum concentrations in our study and the original predicted serum concentrations was 0.95) and there was a negligible impact on the epidemiological association with preeclampsia (no change in the mean adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and the contribution of exposure uncertainty to the total uncertainty including sampling variability was 7%). However, when epistemic uncertainty was added along with the inter-individual variability, serum PFOA concentration predictions and their association with preeclampsia were moderately impacted (the mean AOR of preeclampsia occurrence was reduced from 1.12 to 1.09, and the contribution of exposure uncertainty to the total uncertainty was increased up to 33%). In conclusion, our study shows that the change of the rank exposure among the study participants due to variability and epistemic uncertainty in the independent exposure parameters was large enough to cause a 25% bias towards the null. This suggests that the true AOR of the association between PFOA and preeclampsia in this population might be higher than the originally reported AOR and has more uncertainty than indicated by the originally reported confidence interval. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate change impact on the annual water balance in the northwest Florida coastal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizad, K.; Wang, D.; Alimohammadi, N.; Hagen, S. C.

2012-12-01

As the largest tributary to the Apalachicola River, the Chipola River originates in southern Alabama, flows through Florida Panhandle and ended to Gulf of Mexico. The Chipola watershed is located in an intermediate climate environment with aridity index around one. Watershed provides habitat for a number of threatened and endangered animal and plant species. However, climate change affects hydrologic cycle of Chipola River watershed at various temporal and spatial scales. Studying the effects of climate variations is of great importance for water and environmental management purposes in this catchment. This research is mainly focuses on assessing climate change impact on the partitioning pattern of rainfall from mean annual to inter-annual and to seasonal scales. At the mean annual scale, rainfall is partitioned into runoff and evaporation assuming negligible water storage changes. Mean annual runoff is controlled by both mean annual precipitation and potential evaporation. Changes in long term mean runoff caused by variations of long term mean precipitation and potential evaporation will be evaluated based on Budyko hypothesis. At the annual scale, rainfall is partitioned into runoff, evaporation, and storage change. Inter-annual variability of runoff and evaporation are mainly affected by the changes of mean annual climate variables as well as their inter-annual variability. In order to model and evaluate each component of water balance at the annual scale, parsimonious but reliable models, are developed. Budyko hypothesis on the existing balance between available water and energy supply is reconsidered and redefined for the sub-annual time scale and reconstructed accordingly in order to accurately model seasonal hydrologic balance of the catchment. Models are built in the seasonal time frame with a focus on the role of storage change in water cycle. Then for Chipola catchment, models are parameterized based on a sufficient time span of historical data and the their coefficients are quantified. For necessary future predictions, data obtained from climate regional models starting 2040 to 2069 will be utilized. To accommodate the inherent uncertainty of climate projections, an ensemble of regional climate models will be used to assess changes of rainfall and potential evaporation. Then, the climate change impact on seasonal and annual runoff, evaporation, and water storage changes will be projected.

How can model comparison help improving species distribution models?

PubMed

Gritti, Emmanuel Stephan; Gaucherel, Cédric; Crespo-Perez, Maria-Veronica; Chuine, Isabelle

2013-01-01

Today, more than ever, robust projections of potential species range shifts are needed to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such projections are so far provided almost exclusively by correlative species distribution models (correlative SDMs). However, concerns regarding the reliability of their predictive power are growing and several authors call for the development of process-based SDMs. Still, each of these methods presents strengths and weakness which have to be estimated if they are to be reliably used by decision makers. In this study we compare projections of three different SDMs (STASH, LPJ and PHENOFIT) that lie in the continuum between correlative models and process-based models for the current distribution of three major European tree species, Fagussylvatica L., Quercusrobur L. and Pinussylvestris L. We compare the consistency of the model simulations using an innovative comparison map profile method, integrating local and multi-scale comparisons. The three models simulate relatively accurately the current distribution of the three species. The process-based model performs almost as well as the correlative model, although parameters of the former are not fitted to the observed species distributions. According to our simulations, species range limits are triggered, at the European scale, by establishment and survival through processes primarily related to phenology and resistance to abiotic stress rather than to growth efficiency. The accuracy of projections of the hybrid and process-based model could however be improved by integrating a more realistic representation of the species resistance to water stress for instance, advocating for pursuing efforts to understand and formulate explicitly the impact of climatic conditions and variations on these processes.

How Can Model Comparison Help Improving Species Distribution Models?

PubMed Central

Gritti, Emmanuel Stephan; Gaucherel, Cédric; Crespo-Perez, Maria-Veronica; Chuine, Isabelle

2013-01-01

Today, more than ever, robust projections of potential species range shifts are needed to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such projections are so far provided almost exclusively by correlative species distribution models (correlative SDMs). However, concerns regarding the reliability of their predictive power are growing and several authors call for the development of process-based SDMs. Still, each of these methods presents strengths and weakness which have to be estimated if they are to be reliably used by decision makers. In this study we compare projections of three different SDMs (STASH, LPJ and PHENOFIT) that lie in the continuum between correlative models and process-based models for the current distribution of three major European tree species, Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus robur L. and Pinus sylvestris L. We compare the consistency of the model simulations using an innovative comparison map profile method, integrating local and multi-scale comparisons. The three models simulate relatively accurately the current distribution of the three species. The process-based model performs almost as well as the correlative model, although parameters of the former are not fitted to the observed species distributions. According to our simulations, species range limits are triggered, at the European scale, by establishment and survival through processes primarily related to phenology and resistance to abiotic stress rather than to growth efficiency. The accuracy of projections of the hybrid and process-based model could however be improved by integrating a more realistic representation of the species resistance to water stress for instance, advocating for pursuing efforts to understand and formulate explicitly the impact of climatic conditions and variations on these processes. PMID:23874779

Project InterActions: A Multigenerational Robotic Learning Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bers, Marina U.

2007-12-01

This paper presents Project InterActions, a series of 5-week workshops in which very young learners (4- to 7-year-old children) and their parents come together to build and program a personally meaningful robotic project in the context of a multigenerational robotics-based community of practice. The goal of these family workshops is to teach both parents and children about the mechanical and programming aspects involved in robotics, as well as to initiate them in a learning trajectory with and about technology. Results from this project address different ways in which parents and children learn together and provide insights into how to develop educational interventions that would educate parents, as well as children, in new domains of knowledge and skills such as robotics and new technologies.

The InterLACE study: Design, data harmonization and characteristics across 20 studies on women’s health

PubMed Central

Mishra, Gita D.; Chung, Hsin-Fang; Pandeya, Nirmala; Dobson, Annette J.; Jones, Lee; Avis, Nancy E.; Crawford, Sybil L.; Gold, Ellen B.; Brown, Daniel; Sievert, Lynette L.; Brunner, Eric; Cade, Janet E.; Burley, Victoria J.; Greenwood, Darren C.; Giles, Graham G.; Bruinsma, Fiona; Goodman, Alissa; Hayashi, Kunihiko; Lee, Jung Su; Mizunuma, Hideki; Kuh, Diana; Cooper, Rachel; Hardy, Rebecca; Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf; Lee, Kathryn A.; Simonsen, Mette Kildevæld; Yoshizawa, Toyoko; Woods, Nancy F.; Mitchell, Ellen S.; Hamer, Mark; Demakakos, Panayotes; Sandin, Sven; Adami, Hans-Olov; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Anderson, Debra

2017-01-01

Objectives The International Collaboration for a Life Course Approach to Reproductive Health and Chronic Disease Events (InterLACE) project is a global research collaboration that aims to advance understanding of women’s reproductive health in relation to chronic disease risk by pooling individual participant data from several cohort and cross-sectional studies. The aim of this paper is to describe the characteristics of contributing studies and to present the distribution of demographic and reproductive factors and chronic disease outcomes in InterLACE. Study design InterLACE is an individual-level pooled study of 20 observational studies (12 of which are longitudinal) from ten countries. Variables were harmonized across studies to create a new and systematic synthesis of life-course data. Main outcome measures Harmonized data were derived in three domains: 1) socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, 2) female reproductive characteristics, and 3) chronic disease outcomes (cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes). Results InterLACE pooled data from 229,054 mid-aged women. Overall, 76% of the women were Caucasian and 22% Japanese; other ethnicities (of 300 or more participants) included Hispanic/Latin American (0.2%), Chinese (0.2%), Middle Eastern (0.3%), African/black (0.5%), and Other (1.0%). The median age at baseline was 47 years (Inter-quartile range (IQR): 41–53), and that at the last follow-up was 56 years (IQR: 48–64). Regarding reproductive characteristics, half of the women (49.8%) had their first menstruation (menarche) at 12–13 years of age. The distribution of menopausal status and the prevalence of chronic disease varied considerably among studies. At baseline, most women (57%) were pre- or peri-menopausal, 20% reported a natural menopause (range 0.8–55.6%) and the remainder had surgery or were taking hormones. By the end of follow-up, the prevalence rates of CVD and diabetes were 7.2% (range 0.9–24.6%) and 5.1% (range 1.3–13.2%), respectively. Conclusions The scale and heterogeneity of InterLACE data provide an opportunity to strengthen evidence concerning the relationships between reproductive health through life and subsequent risks of chronic disease, including cross-cultural comparisons. PMID:27621257

Comparison of 3D computer-aided with manual cerebral aneurysm measurements in different imaging modalities.

PubMed

Groth, M; Forkert, N D; Buhk, J H; Schoenfeld, M; Goebell, E; Fiehler, J

2013-02-01

To compare intra- and inter-observer reliability of aneurysm measurements obtained by a 3D computer-aided technique with standard manual aneurysm measurements in different imaging modalities. A total of 21 patients with 29 cerebral aneurysms were studied. All patients underwent digital subtraction angiography (DSA), contrast-enhanced (CE-MRA) and time-of-flight magnetic resonance angiography (TOF-MRA). Aneurysm neck and depth diameters were manually measured by two observers in each modality. Additionally, semi-automatic computer-aided diameter measurements were performed using 3D vessel surface models derived from CE- (CE-com) and TOF-MRA (TOF-com) datasets. Bland-Altman analysis (BA) and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) were used to evaluate intra- and inter-observer agreement. BA revealed the narrowest relative limits of intra- and inter-observer agreement for aneurysm neck and depth diameters obtained by TOF-com (ranging between ±5.3 % and ±28.3 %) and CE-com (ranging between ±23.3 % and ±38.1 %). Direct measurements in DSA, TOF-MRA and CE-MRA showed considerably wider limits of agreement. The highest ICCs were observed for TOF-com and CE-com (ICC values, 0.92 or higher for intra- as well as inter-observer reliability). Computer-aided aneurysm measurement in 3D offers improved intra- and inter-observer reliability and a reproducible parameter extraction, which may be used in clinical routine and as objective surrogate end-points in clinical trials.

Preindustrial to Present-Day Changes in Tropospheric Hydroxyl Radical and Methane Lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naik, V.; Voulgarakis, A.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, M.; Prather, M. J.; Young, P. J.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.;

Energy Systems Integration News | Energy Systems Integration Facility |

Science.gov Websites

answer that question by examining the technical, infrastructure, economic, and policy barriers to greater intra-hour, inter-hour, seasonal, and inter-annual variability of solar resources-essential information powerful tool that provides essential information to policymakers, financiers, project developers, and

33 CFR 209.340 - Laboratory investigations and materials testing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... hydraulic laboratories, and to the Inter-Agency Sedimentation Project. (c) References. (1) AR 37-20. (2) AR... ordinary business channels. (3) Performance of the work will not interfere with provisions of services... with the same procedures as apply to Division Materials Laboratories. (3) Inter-Agency Sedimentation...

33 CFR 209.340 - Laboratory investigations and materials testing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... hydraulic laboratories, and to the Inter-Agency Sedimentation Project. (c) References. (1) AR 37-20. (2) AR... ordinary business channels. (3) Performance of the work will not interfere with provisions of services... with the same procedures as apply to Division Materials Laboratories. (3) Inter-Agency Sedimentation...

Multidisciplinary assessment measure for individuals with disorders of consciousness.

PubMed

Gollega, Ana; Meghji, Chamine; Renton, Sharon; Lazoruk, Arlene; Haynes, Elizabeth; Lawson, Denise; Ostapovitch, MaryAnne

2015-01-01

This study introduces the Comprehensive Assessment Measure for the Minimally Responsive Individual (CAMMRI) and reports on its development, inter-rater reliability, construct validity and clinical value. A multidisciplinary team of therapists developed this measure, which comprises 12 sub-tests that examine three main areas: Response to the Environment, Motor Control and Communication and Swallowing. The sub-tests are scored using a 7-point scale; sub-tests can also be administered individually. The measure was administered during a pilot project and then 1 year later to 12 adult clients with severe acquired brain injury at a long-term rehabilitation programme. The age range of the participants was 18-65 years; individuals were 1.5-10 years post-injury. Comparison measures included the Western Neuro Sensory Stimulation Profile (WNSSP), the Coma Recovery Scale-Revised (CRS-R) and the Chedoke McMaster Impairment Inventory (CMII). Inter-rater reliability of each sub-test ranged from 0.87-1.0, with an average of 0.90 in the first year of the assessments. Validity data supported the use of the CAMMRI for minimally conscious adults with ABI to measure behavioural changes and plan treatment for this population. Future research should focus on using this measure with other neurological populations.

Ensemble Downscaling of Winter Seasonal Forecasts: The MRED Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arritt, R. W.; Mred Team

2010-12-01

The Multi-Regional climate model Ensemble Downscaling (MRED) project is a multi-institutional project that is producing large ensembles of downscaled winter seasonal forecasts from coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal prediction models. Eight regional climate models each are downscaling 15-member ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the new NASA seasonal forecast system based on the GEOS5 atmospheric model coupled with the MOM4 ocean model. This produces 240-member ensembles, i.e., 8 regional models x 15 global ensemble members x 2 global models, for each winter season (December-April) of 1982-2003. Results to date show that combined global-regional downscaled forecasts have greatest skill for seasonal precipitation anomalies during strong El Niño events such as 1982-83 and 1997-98. Ensemble means of area-averaged seasonal precipitation for the regional models generally track the corresponding results for the global model, though there is considerable inter-model variability amongst the regional models. For seasons and regions where area mean precipitation is accurately simulated the regional models bring added value by extracting greater spatial detail from the global forecasts, mainly due to better resolution of terrain in the regional models. Our results also emphasize that an ensemble approach is essential to realizing the added value from the combined global-regional modeling system.

From Past to future: the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project's contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy; Haywood, Alan; Jungclaus, Johann; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

2016-04-01

Since the 1990s, PMIP has developed with the following objectives: 1/to evaluate the ability of climate models used for climate prediction in simulating well-documented past climates outside the range of present and recent climate variability; 2/to understand the mechanisms of these climate changes, in particular the role of the different climate feedbacks. To achieve these goals, PMIP has actively fostered paleo-data syntheses, multi-model analyses, including analyses of relationships between model results from past and future simulations, and model-data comparisons. For CMIP6, PMIP will focus on five past periods: - the Last Millennium (850 CE - present), to analyse natural climate variability on multidecadal or longer time-scales - the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago, to compare model runs with paleodata for a period of warmer climate in the Northern Hemisphere, with an enhanced hydrological cycle - the Last Glacial Maximum, 21000 years ago, to evaluate the ability of climate models to represent a cold climate extreme and examine whether paleoinformation about this period can help and constrain climate sensitivity - the Last InterGlacial (~127,000 year ago), which provides a benchmark for a period of high sea-level stand - the mid-Pliocene warm period (~3.2 million years ago), which allows for the evaluation of the model's long-term response to a CO2 level analogous to the modern one. This poster will present the rationale of these "PMIP4-CMIP6" experiments. Participants are invited to come and discuss about the experimental set-up and the model output to be distributed via CMIP6. For more information and discussion of the PMIP4-CMIP6 experimental design, please visit: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/pmip3/doku.php/pmip3:cmip6:design:index

An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

2018-04-01

Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

Ambrosia airborne pollen concentration modelling and evaluation over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Vautard, Robert; Viovy, Nicolas; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Colette, Augustin

2014-05-01

Native from North America, Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. (Common Ragweed) is an invasive annual weed introduced in Europe in the mid-nineteenth century. It has a very high spreading potential throughout Europe and releases very allergenic pollen leading to health problems for sensitive persons. Because of its health effects, it is necessary to develop modelling tools to be able to forecast ambrosia air pollen concentration and to inform allergy populations of allergenic threshold exceedance. This study is realised within the framework of the ATOPICA project (https://www.atopica.eu/) which is designed to provide first steps in tools and estimations of the fate of allergies in Europe due to changes in climate, land use and air quality. To calculate and predict airborne concentrations of ambrosia pollen, a chain of models has been built. Models have been developed or adapted for simulating the phenology (PMP phonological modelling platform), inter-annual production (ORCHIDEE vegetation model), release and airborne processes (CHIMERE chemical transport model) of ragweed pollen. Airborne pollens follow processes similar to air quality pollutants in CHIMERE with some adaptations. The detailed methodology, formulations and input data will be presented. A set of simulations has been performed to simulate airborne concentrations of pollens over long time periods on a large European domain. Hindcast simulations (2000 - 2012) driven by ERA-Interim re-analyses are designed to best simulate past periods airborne pollens. The modelled pollen concentrations are calibrated with observations and validated against additional observations. Then, 20-year long historical simulations (1986 - 2005) are carried out using calibrated ambrosia density distribution and climate model-driven weather in order to serve as a control simulation for future scenarios. By comparison with multi-annual observed daily pollen counts we have shown that the model captures well the gross features of the pollen concentrations found in Europe. The spatial distribution is well captured with correlation equal to 0.7, but the daily variability of pollen counts remains to be improved with correlations varying between 0.1 and 0.75. The model chain captures reasonably well the inter-annual variability of pollen yearly mean concentrations, correlations, even not statistically significant due to the short length of time series, are positive for about 80% of sites. The main uncertainty in ambrosia pollen modelling is linked to the uncertainty in the plant density distribution. Preliminary results of the impact of environmental changes on pollen concentrations in the future will also be shown.

Comparison of PIXE and XRF analysis of airborne particulate matter samples collected on Teflon and quartz fibre filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiari, M.; Yubero, E.; Calzolai, G.; Lucarelli, F.; Crespo, J.; Galindo, N.; Nicolás, J. F.; Giannoni, M.; Nava, S.

2018-02-01

Within the framework of research projects focusing on the sampling and analysis of airborne particulate matter, Particle Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE) and Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence (ED-XRF) techniques are routinely used in many laboratories throughout the world to determine the elemental concentration of the particulate matter samples. In this work an inter-laboratory comparison of the results obtained from analysing several samples (collected on both Teflon and quartz fibre filters) using both techniques is presented. The samples were analysed by PIXE (in Florence, at the 3 MV Tandetron accelerator of INFN-LABEC laboratory) and by XRF (in Elche, using the ARL Quant'X EDXRF spectrometer with specific conditions optimized for specific groups of elements). The results from the two sets of measurements are in good agreement for all the analysed samples, thus validating the use of the ARL Quant'X EDXRF spectrometer and the selected measurement protocol for the analysis of aerosol samples. Moreover, thanks to the comparison of PIXE and XRF results on Teflon and quartz fibre filters, possible self-absorption effects due to the penetration of the aerosol particles inside the quartz fibre-filters were quantified.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)\\, Working Group 1, 1994: Modelling Results Relating Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations to Industrial Emissions (DB1009)

DOE Data Explorer

Enting, I. G.; Wigley, M. L.; Heimann, M.

1995-01-01

This database contains the results of various projections of the relation between future CO2 concentrations and future industrial emissions. These projections were contributed by groups from a number of countries as part of the scientific assessment for the report, "Radiative Forcing of Climate Change" (1994), issued by Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There were three types of calculations: (1) forward projections, calculating the atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from specified emissions scenarios; (2) inverse calculations, determining the emission rates that would be required to achieve stabilization of CO2 concentrations via specified pathways; (3) impulse response function calculations, required for determining Global Warming Potentials. The projections were extrapolations of global carbon cycle models from pre-industrial times (starting at 1765) to 2100 or 2200 A.D. There were two aspects to the exercise: (1) an assessment of the uncertainty due to uncertainties regarding the current carbon budget, and (2) an assessment of the uncertainties arising from differences between models. To separate these effects, a set of standard conditions was used to explore inter-model differences and then a series of sensitivity studies was used to explore the consequences of current uncertainties in the carbon cycle.

A COMPARISON OF INTER-ANALYST DIFFERENCES IN THE CLASSIFICATION OF A LANDSAT TEM+ SCENE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA

EPA Science Inventory

This study examined inter-analyst classification variability based on training site signature selection only for six classifications from a 10 km² Landsat ETM+ image centered over a highly heterogeneous area in south-central Virginia. Six analysts classified the image...

The Factor Replicability of the Litwin and Stringer Organizational Climate Questionnaire: An Inter- and Intra-Organizational Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Evan D.; And Others

1980-01-01

Four recent factor analytic studies of the Litwin and Stringer Organizational Climate Questionnaire (LSOCQ) are compared. Although there is somewhat more intra- than inter-organizational replicability of factors, both comparisons raise considerable doubt about the validity of the Litwin and Stringer instrument. (Author)

NASA Giovanni: A Tool for Visualizing, Analyzing, and Inter-comparing Soil Moisture Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, William; Rui, Hualan; Vollmer, Bruce; deJeu, Richard; Fang, Fan; Lei, Guang-Dih; Parinussa, Robert

2014-01-01

There are many existing satellite soil moisture algorithms and their derived data products, but there is no simple way for a user to inter-compare the products or analyze them together with other related data. An environment that facilitates such inter-comparison and analysis would be useful for validation of satellite soil moisture retrievals against in situ data and for determining the relationships between different soil moisture products. As part of the NASA Giovanni (Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure) family of portals, which has provided users worldwide with a simple but powerful way to explore NASA data, a beta prototype Giovanni Inter-comparison of Soil Moisture Products portal has been developed. A number of soil moisture data products are currently included in the prototype portal. More will be added, based on user requirements and feedback and as resources become available. Two application examples for the portal are provided. The NASA Giovanni Soil Moisture portal is versatile and extensible, with many possible uses, for research and applications, as well as for the education community.

Automated human skull landmarking with 2D Gabor wavelets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, Markus A.; Gül, Atilla; de Gijt, Jan Pieter; Koudstaal, Maarten J.; Kayser, Manfred; Wolvius, Eppo B.; Böhringer, Stefan

2018-05-01

Landmarking of CT scans is an important step in the alignment of skulls that is key in surgery planning, pre-/post-surgery comparisons, and morphometric studies. We present a novel method for automatically locating anatomical landmarks on the surface of cone beam CT-based image models of human skulls using 2D Gabor wavelets and ensemble learning. The algorithm is validated via human inter- and intra-rater comparisons on a set of 39 scans and a skull superimposition experiment with an established surgery planning software (Maxilim). Automatic landmarking results in an accuracy of 1–2 mm for a subset of landmarks around the nose area as compared to a gold standard derived from human raters. These landmarks are located in eye sockets and lower jaw, which is competitive with or surpasses inter-rater variability. The well-performing landmark subsets allow for the automation of skull superimposition in clinical applications. Our approach delivers accurate results, has modest training requirements (training set size of 30–40 items) and is generic, so that landmark sets can be easily expanded or modified to accommodate shifting landmark interests, which are important requirements for the landmarking of larger cohorts.

A Critical Comparison of Psychometric Models for Measuring Achievement. Methodology Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choppin, Bruce; And Others

A detailed description of five latent structure models of achievement measurement is presented. The first project paper, by David L. McArthur, analyzes the history of mental testing to show how conventional item analysis procedures were developed, and how dissatisfaction with them has led to fragmentation. The range of distinct conceptual and…

Assessment of the uncertainty in future projection for summer climate extremes over the East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Changyong; Min, Seung-Ki; Cha, Dong-Hyun

2017-04-01

Future projections of climate extremes in regional and local scales are essential information needed for better adapting to climate changes. However, future projections hold larger uncertainty factors arising from internal and external processes which reduce the projection confidence. Using CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model simulations, we assess uncertainties in future projections of the East Asian temperature and precipitation extremes focusing on summer. In examining future projection, summer mean and extreme projections of the East Asian temperature and precipitation would be larger as time. Moreover, uncertainty cascades represent wider scenario difference and inter-model ranges with increasing time. A positive mean-extreme relation is found in projections for both temperature and precipitation. For the assessment of uncertainty factors for these projections, dominant uncertainty factors from temperature and precipitation change as time. For uncertainty of mean and extreme temperature, contributions of internal variability and model uncertainty declines after mid-21st century while role of scenario uncertainty grows rapidly. For uncertainty of mean precipitation projections, internal variability is more important than the scenario uncertainty. Unlike mean precipitation, extreme precipitation shows that the scenario uncertainty is expected to be a dominant factor in 2090s. The model uncertainty holds as an important factor for both mean and extreme precipitation until late 21st century. The spatial changes for the uncertainty factors of mean and extreme projections generally are expressed according to temporal changes of the fraction of total variance from uncertainty factors in many grids of the East Asia. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development program under grant KMIPA 2015-2083 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

Surgically Assisted Rapid Palatomaxillary Expansion With or Without Pterygomaxillary Disjunction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Hamedi Sangsari, Adrien; Sadr-Eshkevari, Pooyan; Al-Dam, Ahmed; Friedrich, Reinhard E; Freymiller, Earl; Rashad, Ashkan

2016-02-01

The purpose of this review was to evaluate the outcome measurements of anterior expansion, posterior expansion, and complications after surgically assisted rapid palatal expansion (SARPE) with or without pterygomaxillary disjunction (PMD). A computerized database search was performed using PubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane, Scopus, and Web of Science. Then, a computerized search was conducted in Google Scholar and ProQuest to overcome publication bias. From the original 125 combined results, 3 met the inclusion criteria. The Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies of the Effective Public Health Practice Project assessed 2 articles as weak and 1 as moderate. The systematic review included a total of 48 patients (11 male and 37 female). For 25 patients, SARPE was performed with PMD and for 23 patients SARPE was performed without PMD. A tooth-borne fixed hyrax-type palatal expansion screw appliance was used for all cases, activated 1 to 2 mm intraoperatively, and, after a latency period of 3 to 7 days, activated 0.5 to 0.6 mm per day for 38 patients and 0.25 mm for the other 10 until adequate expansion. Postexpansion retention was performed using ligature wired hyrax in 18 patients for 4 months. Comparisons were based on cone-beam computed tomographic projections, study models only, or a combination of study models, anteroposterior cephalometric radiographs, and occlusal radiographs. The time to measure the changes ranged from before fixed orthodontic retention to 6 months after the completion of active expansion. A meta-analysis was possible only for anterior (intercanine) and posterior (inter-molar) dental expansions. The literature is inconclusive regarding the effect of PMD on the outcomes of SARPE. Further controlled trials are needed. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Controls on terrestrial carbon feedbacks by productivity versus turnover in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koven, C. D.; Chambers, J. Q.; Georgiou, K.

To better understand sources of uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, we present an approach to separate the controls on modeled carbon changes. We separate carbon changes into four categories using a linearized, equilibrium approach: those arising from changed inputs (productivity-driven changes), and outputs (turnover-driven changes), of both the live and dead carbon pools. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations for five models, we find that changes to the live pools are primarily explained by productivity-driven changes, with only one model showing large compensating changes to live carbon turnover times. For dead carbon pools, themore » situation is more complex as all models predict a large reduction in turnover times in response to increases in productivity. This response arises from the common representation of a broad spectrum of decomposition turnover times via a multi-pool approach, in which flux-weighted turnover times are faster than mass-weighted turnover times. This leads to a shift in the distribution of carbon among dead pools in response to changes in inputs, and therefore a transient but long-lived reduction in turnover times. Since this behavior, a reduction in inferred turnover times resulting from an increase in inputs, is superficially similar to priming processes, but occurring without the mechanisms responsible for priming, we call the phenomenon "false priming", and show that it masks much of the intrinsic changes to dead carbon turnover times as a result of changing climate. These patterns hold across the fully coupled, biogeochemically coupled, and radiatively coupled 1 % yr −1 increasing CO 2 experiments. We disaggregate inter-model uncertainty in the globally integrated equilibrium carbon responses to initial turnover times, initial productivity, fractional changes in turnover, and fractional changes in productivity. For both the live and dead carbon pools, inter-model spread in carbon changes arising from initial conditions is dominated by model disagreement on turnover times, whereas inter-model spread in carbon changes from fractional changes to these terms is dominated by model disagreement on changes to productivity in response to both warming and CO 2 fertilization. However, the lack of changing turnover time control on carbon responses, for both live and dead carbon pools, in response to the imposed forcings may arise from a common lack of process representation behind changing turnover times (e.g., allocation and mortality for live carbon; permafrost, microbial dynamics, and mineral stabilization for dead carbon), rather than a true estimate of the importance of these processes.« less

Controls on terrestrial carbon feedbacks by productivity versus turnover in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

DOE PAGES

Koven, C. D.; Chambers, J. Q.; Georgiou, K.; ...

2015-09-07

To better understand sources of uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, we present an approach to separate the controls on modeled carbon changes. We separate carbon changes into four categories using a linearized, equilibrium approach: those arising from changed inputs (productivity-driven changes), and outputs (turnover-driven changes), of both the live and dead carbon pools. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations for five models, we find that changes to the live pools are primarily explained by productivity-driven changes, with only one model showing large compensating changes to live carbon turnover times. For dead carbon pools, themore » situation is more complex as all models predict a large reduction in turnover times in response to increases in productivity. This response arises from the common representation of a broad spectrum of decomposition turnover times via a multi-pool approach, in which flux-weighted turnover times are faster than mass-weighted turnover times. This leads to a shift in the distribution of carbon among dead pools in response to changes in inputs, and therefore a transient but long-lived reduction in turnover times. Since this behavior, a reduction in inferred turnover times resulting from an increase in inputs, is superficially similar to priming processes, but occurring without the mechanisms responsible for priming, we call the phenomenon "false priming", and show that it masks much of the intrinsic changes to dead carbon turnover times as a result of changing climate. These patterns hold across the fully coupled, biogeochemically coupled, and radiatively coupled 1 % yr −1 increasing CO 2 experiments. We disaggregate inter-model uncertainty in the globally integrated equilibrium carbon responses to initial turnover times, initial productivity, fractional changes in turnover, and fractional changes in productivity. For both the live and dead carbon pools, inter-model spread in carbon changes arising from initial conditions is dominated by model disagreement on turnover times, whereas inter-model spread in carbon changes from fractional changes to these terms is dominated by model disagreement on changes to productivity in response to both warming and CO 2 fertilization. However, the lack of changing turnover time control on carbon responses, for both live and dead carbon pools, in response to the imposed forcings may arise from a common lack of process representation behind changing turnover times (e.g., allocation and mortality for live carbon; permafrost, microbial dynamics, and mineral stabilization for dead carbon), rather than a true estimate of the importance of these processes.« less

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

Projected changes to South Atlantic boundary currents and confluence region in the CMIP5 models: the role of wind and deep ocean changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pontes, G. M.; Gupta, A. Sen; Taschetto, A. S.

2016-09-01

The South Atlantic (SA) circulation plays an important role in the oceanic teleconnections from the Indian, Pacific and Southern oceans to the North Atlantic, with inter-hemispheric exchanges of heat and salt. Here, we show that the large-scale features of the SA circulation are projected to change significantly under ‘business as usual’ greenhouse gas increases. Based on 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 there is a projected weakening in the upper ocean interior transport (<1000 m) between 15° and ˜32°S, largely related to a weakening of the wind stress curl over this region. The reduction in ocean interior circulation is largely compensated by a decrease in the net deep southward ocean transport (>1000 m), mainly related to a decrease in the North Atlantic deep water transport. Between 30° and 40°S, there is a consistent projected intensification in the Brazil current strength of about 40% (30%-58% interquartile range) primarily compensated by an intensification of the upper interior circulation across the Indo-Atlantic basin. The Brazil-Malvinas confluence is projected to shift southwards, driven by a weakening of the Malvinas current. Such a change could have important implications for the distribution of marine species in the southwestern SA in the future.

Retrieved Latent Heating from TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Smith, Eric A.; Houze Jr, Robert

2008-01-01

The global hydrological cycle is central to the Earth's climate system, with rainfall and the physics of precipitation formation acting as the key links in the cycle. Two-thirds of global rainfall occurs in the tropics with the associated latent heating (LH) accounting for three-fourths of the total heat energy available to the Earth's atmosphere. In addition, fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability exerts a large impact upon the structure and motions of the upper ocean layer. In the last decade, it has been established that standard products of LH from satellite measurements, particularly TRMM measurements, would be a valuable resource for scientific research and applications. Such products would enable new insights and investigations concerning the complexities of convection system life cycles, the diabatic heating controls and feedbacks related to meso-synoptic circulations and their forecasting, the relationship of tropical patterns of LH to the global circulation and climate, and strategies for improving cloud parameterizations in environmental prediction models. The status of retrieved TRMM LH products, TRMM LH inter-comparison and validation project, current TRMM LH applications and critic issues/action items (based on previous five TRMM LH workshops) is presented in this article.

Inter-comparison of boron concentration measurements at INFN-University of Pavia (Italy) and CNEA (Argentina).

PubMed

Portu, Agustina; Postuma, Ian; Gadan, Mario Alberto; Saint Martin, Gisela; Olivera, María Silvina; Altieri, Saverio; Protti, Nicoletta; Bortolussi, Silva

2015-11-01

An inter-comparison of three boron determination techniques was carried out between laboratories from INFN-University of Pavia (Italy) and CNEA (Argentina): alpha spectrometry (alpha-spect), neutron capture radiography (NCR) and quantitative autoradiography (QTA). Samples of different nature were analysed: liquid standards, liver homogenates and tissue samples from different treatment protocols. The techniques showed a good agreement in a concentration range of interest in BNCT (1-100ppm), thus demonstrating their applicability as precise methods to quantify boron and determine its distribution in tissues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A School Health Project Can Uplift the Health Status of School Children in Nepal.

PubMed

Shrestha, Rachana Manandhar; Miyaguchi, Moe; Shibanuma, Akira; Khanal, Arun; Yasuoka, Junko; Jimba, Masamine

2016-01-01

School health is effective in helping students achieve health literacy, enhance their health-related behaviors, and thereby improve their health status. However, in resource-limited countries, evidence is limited to show the impact of school health. We determined the association of the school health and nutrition (SHN) project activities on students' a) health knowledge, b) hygiene practices, and c) health outcomes, one year after the project completion. This is a cross-sectional study conducted among the schools with the SHN project and without the project in four districts of Nepal. We recruited 604 students from six schools in the project group and 648 students from other six schools in the comparison group. We used a self-administered questionnaire to collect the data, and analyzed them using regression models and a structural equation model (SEM). Students from the SHN project group reported the decreased odds of worm infestation (AOR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.34 to 0.75) and diarrhea/ dysentery infection (AOR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.47 to 0.97) compared to those in the comparison group. Furthermore, the SEM analysis also showed that the students in the project group were more likely to have better health outcomes (β = 0.03, p< 0.05). Students in the SHN project group were more likely to have better health outcomes compared to those in the comparison group, even after one year of the project completion. As it can bring about sustainable changes for students, it should be scaled up in other parts of the country.

Versailles Project on Advanced Materials and Standards Interlaboratory Study on Measuring the Thickness and Chemistry of Nanoparticle Coatings Using XPS and LEIS.

PubMed

Belsey, Natalie A; Cant, David J H; Minelli, Caterina; Araujo, Joyce R; Bock, Bernd; Brüner, Philipp; Castner, David G; Ceccone, Giacomo; Counsell, Jonathan D P; Dietrich, Paul M; Engelhard, Mark H; Fearn, Sarah; Galhardo, Carlos E; Kalbe, Henryk; Won Kim, Jeong; Lartundo-Rojas, Luis; Luftman, Henry S; Nunney, Tim S; Pseiner, Johannes; Smith, Emily F; Spampinato, Valentina; Sturm, Jacobus M; Thomas, Andrew G; Treacy, Jon P W; Veith, Lothar; Wagstaffe, Michael; Wang, Hai; Wang, Meiling; Wang, Yung-Chen; Werner, Wolfgang; Yang, Li; Shard, Alexander G

2016-10-27

We report the results of a VAMAS (Versailles Project on Advanced Materials and Standards) inter-laboratory study on the measurement of the shell thickness and chemistry of nanoparticle coatings. Peptide-coated gold particles were supplied to laboratories in two forms: a colloidal suspension in pure water and; particles dried onto a silicon wafer. Participants prepared and analyzed these samples using either X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) or low energy ion scattering (LEIS). Careful data analysis revealed some significant sources of discrepancy, particularly for XPS. Degradation during transportation, storage or sample preparation resulted in a variability in thickness of 53 %. The calculation method chosen by XPS participants contributed a variability of 67 %. However, variability of 12 % was achieved for the samples deposited using a single method and by choosing photoelectron peaks that were not adversely affected by instrumental transmission effects. The study identified a need for more consistency in instrumental transmission functions and relative sensitivity factors, since this contributed a variability of 33 %. The results from the LEIS participants were more consistent, with variability of less than 10 % in thickness and this is mostly due to a common method of data analysis. The calculation was performed using a model developed for uniform, flat films and some participants employed a correction factor to account for the sample geometry, which appears warranted based upon a simulation of LEIS data from one of the participants and comparison to the XPS results.

Land-use change trajectories up to 2050. Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, G. Page

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how theymore » model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.« less

A Factor Analysis on Teamwork Performance: An Empirical Study of Inter-Instituted Collaboration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Mingchang; Chen, Ya-Hsueh

2014-01-01

Problem Statement: Inter-instituted collaboration has attracted broad attention for educational quality improvement in the last decade. The team performance of these innovative team projects received foremost attention, particularly with knowledge-sharing, emotional intelligence, and team conflicts. Purpose of Study: The purpose of the study was…

An efficient inverse radiotherapy planning method for VMAT using quadratic programming optimization.

PubMed

Hoegele, W; Loeschel, R; Merkle, N; Zygmanski, P

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the feasibility of an inverse planning optimization approach for the Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) based on quadratic programming and the projection method. The performance of this method is evaluated against a reference commercial planning system (eclipse(TM) for rapidarc(TM)) for clinically relevant cases. The inverse problem is posed in terms of a linear combination of basis functions representing arclet dose contributions and their respective linear coefficients as degrees of freedom. MLC motion is decomposed into basic motion patterns in an intuitive manner leading to a system of equations with a relatively small number of equations and unknowns. These equations are solved using quadratic programming under certain limiting physical conditions for the solution, such as the avoidance of negative dose during optimization and Monitor Unit reduction. The modeling by the projection method assures a unique treatment plan with beneficial properties, such as the explicit relation between organ weightings and the final dose distribution. Clinical cases studied include prostate and spine treatments. The optimized plans are evaluated by comparing isodose lines, DVH profiles for target and normal organs, and Monitor Units to those obtained by the clinical treatment planning system eclipse(TM). The resulting dose distributions for a prostate (with rectum and bladder as organs at risk), and for a spine case (with kidneys, liver, lung and heart as organs at risk) are presented. Overall, the results indicate that similar plan qualities for quadratic programming (QP) and rapidarc(TM) could be achieved at significantly more efficient computational and planning effort using QP. Additionally, results for the quasimodo phantom [Bohsung et al., "IMRT treatment planning: A comparative inter-system and inter-centre planning exercise of the estro quasimodo group," Radiother. Oncol. 76(3), 354-361 (2005)] are presented as an example for an extreme concave case. Quadratic programming is an alternative approach for inverse planning which generates clinically satisfying plans in comparison to the clinical system and constitutes an efficient optimization process characterized by uniqueness and reproducibility of the solution.

When does activating diversity alleviate, when does it increase intergroup bias? An ingroup projection perspective

PubMed Central

Steffens, Melanie C.; Reese, Gerhard; Ehrke, Franziska; Jonas, Kai J.

2017-01-01

The question how intergroup bias can be alleviated is of much theoretical and practical interest. Whereas diversity training and the multiculturalism ideology are two approaches prominent in practice, most theoretical models on reducing intergroup bias are based on social-identity theory and self-categorization theory. This social-identity perspective assumes that similar processes lead to intergroup bias in very different intergroup contexts if people identify with the respective social groups. A recent prominent model based on these theories is the ingroup-projection model. As this model assumes, an ingroup’s norms and standards are applied to outgroups included in a common superordinate category (this is called ingroup projection). Intergroup bias results because the outgroup fulfils these norms and standards less than the ingroup. Importantly, if the diversity of the superordinate category is induced as the norm, ingroup projection and thus intergroup bias should be reduced. The present research delineates and tests how general this process is. We propose that ingroup prototypicality is not only an outcome variable, as the ingroup-projection model originally assumes, but can also be an important moderator. We hypothesize that for members considering their ingroup highly prototypical (“pars pro toto”, large majorities), the superordinate group’s diversity may question their ingroup’s position and thus elicit threat and intergroup bias. In contrast, for members who consider their group as less prototypical (one among several, or “una inter pares” groups), activating diversity should, as originally assumed in the ingroup-projection model, reduce intergroup bias. Three experiments (total N = 345) supported these predictions in the contexts of groups defined by gender or nationality. Taken together, the ingroup-projection model can explain under which conditions activating superordinate-category diversity induces tolerance, and when it may backfire. We discuss in how far the ingroup-projection model can integrate conflicting findings on the multiculturalism ideology. PMID:28582443

Integrating Plant Science and Crop Modeling: Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Soybean and Maize Production.

PubMed

Fodor, Nándor; Challinor, Andrew; Droutsas, Ioannis; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Zabel, Florian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Foyer, Christine H

2017-11-01

Increasing global CO2 emissions have profound consequences for plant biology, not least because of direct influences on carbon gain. However, much remains uncertain regarding how our major crops will respond to a future high CO2 world. Crop model inter-comparison studies have identified large uncertainties and biases associated with climate change. The need to quantify uncertainty has drawn the fields of plant molecular physiology, crop breeding and biology, and climate change modeling closer together. Comparing data from different models that have been used to assess the potential climate change impacts on soybean and maize production, future yield losses have been predicted for both major crops. When CO2 fertilization effects are taken into account significant yield gains are predicted for soybean, together with a shift in global production from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. Maize production is also forecast to shift northwards. However, unless plant breeders are able to produce new hybrids with improved traits, the forecasted yield losses for maize will only be mitigated by agro-management adaptations. In addition, the increasing demands of a growing world population will require larger areas of marginal land to be used for maize and soybean production. We summarize the outputs of crop models, together with mitigation options for decreasing the negative impacts of climate on the global maize and soybean production, providing an overview of projected land-use change as a major determining factor for future global crop production. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists.

Inter-algorithm lesion volumetry comparison of real and 3D simulated lung lesions in CT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robins, Marthony; Solomon, Justin; Hoye, Jocelyn; Smith, Taylor; Ebner, Lukas; Samei, Ehsan

2017-03-01

The purpose of this study was to establish volumetric exchangeability between real and computational lung lesions in CT. We compared the overall relative volume estimation performance of segmentation tools when used to measure real lesions in actual patient CT images and computational lesions virtually inserted into the same patient images (i.e., hybrid datasets). Pathologically confirmed malignancies from 30 thoracic patient cases from Reference Image Database to Evaluate Therapy Response (RIDER) were modeled and used as the basis for the comparison. Lesions included isolated nodules as well as those attached to the pleura or other lung structures. Patient images were acquired using a 16 detector row or 64 detector row CT scanner (Lightspeed 16 or VCT; GE Healthcare). Scans were acquired using standard chest protocols during a single breath-hold. Virtual 3D lesion models based on real lesions were developed in Duke Lesion Tool (Duke University), and inserted using a validated image-domain insertion program. Nodule volumes were estimated using multiple commercial segmentation tools (iNtuition, TeraRecon, Inc., Syngo.via, Siemens Healthcare, and IntelliSpace, Philips Healthcare). Consensus based volume comparison showed consistent trends in volume measurement between real and virtual lesions across all software. The average percent bias (+/- standard error) shows -9.2+/-3.2% for real lesions versus -6.7+/-1.2% for virtual lesions with tool A, 3.9+/-2.5% and 5.0+/-0.9% for tool B, and 5.3+/-2.3% and 1.8+/-0.8% for tool C, respectively. Virtual lesion volumes were statistically similar to those of real lesions (< 4% difference) with p >.05 in most cases. Results suggest that hybrid datasets had similar inter-algorithm variability compared to real datasets.

Evaluation of cross-connected waveguides as transfer standards of transmission at high millimetre-wave frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridler, Nick; Clarke, Roland; Huang, Hui; Zinal, Sherko

2016-08-01

At the present time, transfer and verification standards of transmission coefficient (or, equivalently, transmission loss) are not readily available at high millimetre-wave frequencies (i.e. at frequencies ranging typically from 100 GHz to 300 GHz). In recent years, cross-connected waveguide devices have been proposed to provide calculable standards of transmission loss at these frequencies. This paper investigates the viability of these cross-connected waveguides as transfer standards of transmission for inter-laboratory measurement comparison exercises. This relates to their potential use in activities such as international key comparison exercises and measurement audit programmes. A trial inter-laboratory comparison involving four laboratories using two cross-connected waveguides in the WR-05 waveguide size (covering frequencies from 140 GHz to 220 GHz) is described and includes an analysis of the measurement results obtained during the comparison exercise.

Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, Lauren; Schmidt, Anja; Toohey, Matthew; Carslaw, Ken S.; Mann, Graham W.; Sigl, Michael; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia; Zanchettin, Davide; Ball, William T.; Bekki, Slimane; Brooke, James S. A.; Dhomse, Sandip; Johnson, Colin; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Mills, Michael J.; Niemeier, Ulrike; Pope, James O.; Poulain, Virginie; Robock, Alan; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Tilmes, Simone; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Tummon, Fiona

2018-02-01

The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 year without a summer, and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic sulfate signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), five state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyse both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records. The models simulate overall similar patterns of background sulfate deposition, although there are differences in regional details and magnitude. However, the volcanic sulfate deposition varies considerably between the models with differences in timing, spatial pattern and magnitude. Mean simulated deposited sulfate on Antarctica ranges from 19 to 264 kg km-2 and on Greenland from 31 to 194 kg km-2, as compared to the mean ice-core-derived estimates of roughly 50 kg km-2 for both Greenland and Antarctica. The ratio of the hemispheric atmospheric sulfate aerosol burden after the eruption to the average ice sheet deposited sulfate varies between models by up to a factor of 15. Sources of this inter-model variability include differences in both the formation and the transport of sulfate aerosol. Our results suggest that deriving relationships between sulfate deposited on ice sheets and atmospheric sulfate burdens from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.

Assessment of Anthropogenic and Climatic Impacts on the Global Carbon Cycle Using a 3-D Model Constrained by Isotopic Carbon Measurements and Remote Sensing of Vegetation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keeling, Charles D.; Piper, S. C.

1998-01-01

Our original proposal called for improved modeling of the terrestrial biospheric carbon cycle, specifically using biome-specific process models to account for both the energy and water budgets of plant growth, to facilitate investigations into recent changes in global atmospheric CO2 abundance and regional distribution. The carbon fluxes predicted by these models were to be incorporated into a global model of CO2 transport to establish large-scale regional fluxes of CO2 to and from the terrestrial biosphere subject to constraints imposed by direct measurements of atmospheric CO2 and its 13C/12C isotopic ratio. Our work was coordinated with a NASA project (NASA NAGW-3151) at the University of Montana under the direction of Steven Running, and was partially funded by the Electric Power Research Institute. The primary objective of this project was to develop and test the Biome-BGC model, a global biological process model with a daily time step which simulates the water, energy and carbon budgets of plant growth. The primary product, the unique global gridded daily land temperature, and the precipitation data set which was used to drive the process model is described. The Biome-BGC model was tested by comparison with a simpler biological model driven by satellite-derived (NDVI) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and (PAR) Photosynthetically Active Radiation data and by comparison with atmospheric CO2 observations. The simple NDVI model is also described. To facilitate the comparison with atmospheric CO2 observations, a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model was used to produce predictions of atmospheric CO2 variations given CO2 fluxes owing to (NPP) Net Primary Productivity and heterotrophic respiration that were produced by the Biome-BGC model and by the NDVI model. The transport model that we used in this project, and errors associated with transport simulations, were characterized by a comparison of 12 transport models.

The Sim-SEQ Project: Comparison of Selected Flow Models for the S-3 Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mukhopadhyay, Sumit; Doughty, Christine A.; Bacon, Diana H.

Sim-SEQ is an international initiative on model comparison for geologic carbon sequestration, with an objective to understand and, if possible, quantify model uncertainties. Model comparison efforts in Sim-SEQ are at present focusing on one specific field test site, hereafter referred to as the Sim-SEQ Study site (or S-3 site). Within Sim-SEQ, different modeling teams are developing conceptual models of CO2 injection at the S-3 site. In this paper, we select five flow models of the S-3 site and provide a qualitative comparison of their attributes and predictions. These models are based on five different simulators or modeling approaches: TOUGH2/EOS7C, STOMP-CO2e,more » MoReS, TOUGH2-MP/ECO2N, and VESA. In addition to model-to-model comparison, we perform a limited model-to-data comparison, and illustrate how model choices impact model predictions. We conclude the paper by making recommendations for model refinement that are likely to result in less uncertainty in model predictions.« less

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in a Cold Region Watershed: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibike, Y. B.; Eum, H. I.; Prowse, T. D.

2017-12-01

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be temperature- induced shift in precipitation from snow towards rain as well as changes in snowmelt timing affecting the frequency of extreme high and low flow events which could significantly alter ecosystem services. This study examines the potential changes in the frequency and severity of hydrologic extremes in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and selected and statistically downscaled climate change scenario data from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The sensitivity of these projected changes is also examined by applying different extreme flow analysis methods. The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to earlier period. Most of the streams are projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increases in extreme high flows, especially for low frequency events. While the middle and lower parts of the watershed are characterised by projected increases in extreme high flows, the high elevation alpine region is mainly characterised by corresponding decreases in extreme low flow events. However, the magnitude of projected changes in extreme flow varies over a wide range, especially for low frequent events, depending on the climate scenario and period of analysis, and sometimes in a nonlinear way. Nonetheless, the sensitivity of the projected changes to the statistical method of analysis is found to be relatively small compared to the inter-model variability.

An inter-comparison of surface energy flux measurement systems used during FIFE, 1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nie, D.; Kanemasu, E. T.; Fritschen, L. J.; Weaver, H.; Smith, E. A.; Verma, S. B.; Field, R. T.; Kustas, W.; Stewart, J. B.

1990-01-01

During the first International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Program Field Experiment (FIFE-87), surface energy fluxes were measured at 22 flux sites by nine groups of scientists using different measuring systems. A rover Bowen ratio station was taken to nearly all the flux stations to serve as a reference for estimating the instrument related differences. The rover system was installed within a few meters from the host instrument of a site. Net radiation, Bowen ratio, and latent heat fluxes were compared between the rover and the host for the stations visited. Linear regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between rover measurements and host measurements. These inter-comparisons are needed to examine the influence of instrumentation on measurement uncertainty. Highly significant effects of instrument type were detected from these comparisons. Instruments of the same type showed average differences of less than 5 percent for net radiation, 10 percent for Bowen ratio, and 6 percent for latent heat flux. The corresponding average differences for different types of instruments can be up to 10, 30, and 20 percent respectively. The Didcot net radiometer gave higher net radiation while the Swissteco type showed lower values, as compared to the corrected REBS model. The 4-way components methed and the Thornswaite type give similar values to the REBS. The SERBS type Bowen ratio systems exhibit slightly lower Bowen ratios and thus higher latent heat fluxes, compared to the AZET systems. Eddy correlation systems showed slightly lower latent heat flux in comparison to the Bowen ratio systems.

Capturing, Harmonizing and Delivering Data and Quality Provenance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leptoukh, Gregory; Lynnes, Christopher

2011-01-01

Satellite remote sensing data have proven to be vital for various scientific and applications needs. However, the usability of these data depends not only on the data values but also on the ability of data users to assess and understand the quality of these data for various applications and for comparison or inter-usage of data from different sensors and models. In this paper, we describe some aspects of capturing, harmonizing and delivering this information to users in the framework of distributed web-based data tools.