Linear system identification via backward-time observer models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juang, Jer-Nan; Phan, Minh

1993-01-01

This paper presents an algorithm to identify a state-space model of a linear system using a backward-time approach. The procedure consists of three basic steps. First, the Markov parameters of a backward-time observer are computed from experimental input-output data. Second, the backward-time observer Markov parameters are decomposed to obtain the backward-time system Markov parameters (backward-time pulse response samples) from which a backward-time state-space model is realized using the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm. Third, the obtained backward-time state space model is converted to the usual forward-time representation. Stochastic properties of this approach will be discussed. Experimental results are given to illustrate when and to what extent this concept works.

Dynamics in the Parameter Space of a Neuron Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulo, C. Rech

2012-06-01

Some two-dimensional parameter-space diagrams are numerically obtained by considering the largest Lyapunov exponent for a four-dimensional thirteen-parameter Hindmarsh—Rose neuron model. Several different parameter planes are considered, and it is shown that depending on the combination of parameters, a typical scenario can be preserved: for some choice of two parameters, the parameter plane presents a comb-shaped chaotic region embedded in a large periodic region. It is also shown that there exist regions close to these comb-shaped chaotic regions, separated by the comb teeth, organizing themselves in period-adding bifurcation cascades.

Trap configuration and spacing influences parameter estimates in spatial capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

An increasing number of studies employ spatial capture-recapture models to estimate population size, but there has been limited research on how different spatial sampling designs and trap configurations influence parameter estimators. Spatial capture-recapture models provide an advantage over non-spatial models by explicitly accounting for heterogeneous detection probabilities among individuals that arise due to the spatial organization of individuals relative to sampling devices. We simulated black bear (Ursus americanus) populations and spatial capture-recapture data to evaluate the influence of trap configuration and trap spacing on estimates of population size and a spatial scale parameter, sigma, that relates to home range size. We varied detection probability and home range size, and considered three trap configurations common to large-mammal mark-recapture studies: regular spacing, clustered, and a temporal sequence of different cluster configurations (i.e., trap relocation). We explored trap spacing and number of traps per cluster by varying the number of traps. The clustered arrangement performed well when detection rates were low, and provides for easier field implementation than the sequential trap arrangement. However, performance differences between trap configurations diminished as home range size increased. Our simulations suggest it is important to consider trap spacing relative to home range sizes, with traps ideally spaced no more than twice the spatial scale parameter. While spatial capture-recapture models can accommodate different sampling designs and still estimate parameters with accuracy and precision, our simulations demonstrate that aspects of sampling design, namely trap configuration and spacing, must consider study area size, ranges of individual movement, and home range sizes in the study population.

On equivalent parameter learning in simplified feature space based on Bayesian asymptotic analysis.

PubMed

Yamazaki, Keisuke

2012-07-01

Parametric models for sequential data, such as hidden Markov models, stochastic context-free grammars, and linear dynamical systems, are widely used in time-series analysis and structural data analysis. Computation of the likelihood function is one of primary considerations in many learning methods. Iterative calculation of the likelihood such as the model selection is still time-consuming though there are effective algorithms based on dynamic programming. The present paper studies parameter learning in a simplified feature space to reduce the computational cost. Simplifying data is a common technique seen in feature selection and dimension reduction though an oversimplified space causes adverse learning results. Therefore, we mathematically investigate a condition of the feature map to have an asymptotically equivalent convergence point of estimated parameters, referred to as the vicarious map. As a demonstration to find vicarious maps, we consider the feature space, which limits the length of data, and derive a necessary length for parameter learning in hidden Markov models. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient Screening of Climate Model Sensitivity to a Large Number of Perturbed Input Parameters [plus supporting information

DOE PAGES

Covey, Curt; Lucas, Donald D.; Tannahill, John; ...

2013-07-01

Modern climate models contain numerous input parameters, each with a range of possible values. Since the volume of parameter space increases exponentially with the number of parameters N, it is generally impossible to directly evaluate a model throughout this space even if just 2-3 values are chosen for each parameter. Sensitivity screening algorithms, however, can identify input parameters having relatively little effect on a variety of output fields, either individually or in nonlinear combination.This can aid both model development and the uncertainty quantification (UQ) process. Here we report results from a parameter sensitivity screening algorithm hitherto untested in climate modeling,more » the Morris one-at-a-time (MOAT) method. This algorithm drastically reduces the computational cost of estimating sensitivities in a high dimensional parameter space because the sample size grows linearly rather than exponentially with N. It nevertheless samples over much of the N-dimensional volume and allows assessment of parameter interactions, unlike traditional elementary one-at-a-time (EOAT) parameter variation. We applied both EOAT and MOAT to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), assessing CAM’s behavior as a function of 27 uncertain input parameters related to the boundary layer, clouds, and other subgrid scale processes. For radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere, EOAT and MOAT rank most input parameters similarly, but MOAT identifies a sensitivity that EOAT underplays for two convection parameters that operate nonlinearly in the model. MOAT’s ranking of input parameters is robust to modest algorithmic variations, and it is qualitatively consistent with model development experience. Supporting information is also provided at the end of the full text of the article.« less

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra; ...

2017-11-20

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

Efficient Calibration of Distributed Catchment Models Using Perceptual Understanding and Hydrologic Signatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutton, C.; Wagener, T.; Freer, J. E.; Duffy, C.; Han, D.

2015-12-01

Distributed models offer the potential to resolve catchment systems in more detail, and therefore simulate the hydrological impacts of spatial changes in catchment forcing (e.g. landscape change). Such models may contain a large number of model parameters which are computationally expensive to calibrate. Even when calibration is possible, insufficient data can result in model parameter and structural equifinality. In order to help reduce the space of feasible models and supplement traditional outlet discharge calibration data, semi-quantitative information (e.g. knowledge of relative groundwater levels), may also be used to identify behavioural models when applied to constrain spatially distributed predictions of states and fluxes. The challenge is to combine these different sources of information together to identify a behavioural region of state-space, and efficiently search a large, complex parameter space to identify behavioural parameter sets that produce predictions that fall within this behavioural region. Here we present a methodology to incorporate different sources of data to efficiently calibrate distributed catchment models. Metrics of model performance may be derived from multiple sources of data (e.g. perceptual understanding and measured or regionalised hydrologic signatures). For each metric, an interval or inequality is used to define the behaviour of the catchment system, accounting for data uncertainties. These intervals are then combined to produce a hyper-volume in state space. The state space is then recast as a multi-objective optimisation problem, and the Borg MOEA is applied to first find, and then populate the hyper-volume, thereby identifying acceptable model parameter sets. We apply the methodology to calibrate the PIHM model at Plynlimon, UK by incorporating perceptual and hydrologic data into the calibration problem. Furthermore, we explore how to improve calibration efficiency through search initialisation from shorter model runs.

An efficient interpolation technique for jump proposals in reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo calculations

PubMed Central

Farr, W. M.; Mandel, I.; Stevens, D.

2015-01-01

Selection among alternative theoretical models given an observed dataset is an important challenge in many areas of physics and astronomy. Reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) is an extremely powerful technique for performing Bayesian model selection, but it suffers from a fundamental difficulty and it requires jumps between model parameter spaces, but cannot efficiently explore both parameter spaces at once. Thus, a naive jump between parameter spaces is unlikely to be accepted in the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm and convergence is correspondingly slow. Here, we demonstrate an interpolation technique that uses samples from single-model MCMCs to propose intermodel jumps from an approximation to the single-model posterior of the target parameter space. The interpolation technique, based on a kD-tree data structure, is adaptive and efficient in modest dimensionality. We show that our technique leads to improved convergence over naive jumps in an RJMCMC, and compare it to other proposals in the literature to improve the convergence of RJMCMCs. We also demonstrate the use of the same interpolation technique as a way to construct efficient ‘global’ proposal distributions for single-model MCMCs without prior knowledge of the structure of the posterior distribution, and discuss improvements that permit the method to be used in higher dimensional spaces efficiently. PMID:26543580

Efficient design based on perturbed parameter ensembles to identify plausible and diverse variants of a model for climate change projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karmalkar, A.; Sexton, D.; Murphy, J.

2017-12-01

We present exploratory work towards developing an efficient strategy to select variants of a state-of-the-art but expensive climate model suitable for climate projection studies. The strategy combines information from a set of idealized perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) and CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (MME) experiments, and uses two criteria as basis to select model variants for a PPE suitable for future projections: a) acceptable model performance at two different timescales, and b) maintaining diversity in model response to climate change. We demonstrate that there is a strong relationship between model errors at weather and climate timescales for a variety of key variables. This relationship is used to filter out parts of parameter space that do not give credible simulations of historical climate, while minimizing the impact on ranges in forcings and feedbacks that drive model responses to climate change. We use statistical emulation to explore the parameter space thoroughly, and demonstrate that about 90% can be filtered out without affecting diversity in global-scale climate change responses. This leads to identification of plausible parts of parameter space from which model variants can be selected for projection studies.

Modeling individual effects in the Cormack-Jolly-Seber Model: A state-space formulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2008-01-01

In population and evolutionary biology, there exists considerable interest in individual heterogeneity in parameters of demographic models for open populations. However, flexible and practical solutions to the development of such models have proven to be elusive. In this article, I provide a state-space formulation of open population capture-recapture models with individual effects. The state-space formulation provides a generic and flexible framework for modeling and inference in models with individual effects, and it yields a practical means of estimation in these complex problems via contemporary methods of Markov chain Monte Carlo. A straightforward implementation can be achieved in the software package WinBUGS. I provide an analysis of a simple model with constant parameter detection and survival probability parameters. A second example is based on data from a 7-year study of European dippers, in which a model with year and individual effects is fitted.

Parameter estimation methods for gene circuit modeling from time-series mRNA data: a comparative study.

PubMed

Fan, Ming; Kuwahara, Hiroyuki; Wang, Xiaolei; Wang, Suojin; Gao, Xin

2015-11-01

Parameter estimation is a challenging computational problem in the reverse engineering of biological systems. Because advances in biotechnology have facilitated wide availability of time-series gene expression data, systematic parameter estimation of gene circuit models from such time-series mRNA data has become an important method for quantitatively dissecting the regulation of gene expression. By focusing on the modeling of gene circuits, we examine here the performance of three types of state-of-the-art parameter estimation methods: population-based methods, online methods and model-decomposition-based methods. Our results show that certain population-based methods are able to generate high-quality parameter solutions. The performance of these methods, however, is heavily dependent on the size of the parameter search space, and their computational requirements substantially increase as the size of the search space increases. In comparison, online methods and model decomposition-based methods are computationally faster alternatives and are less dependent on the size of the search space. Among other things, our results show that a hybrid approach that augments computationally fast methods with local search as a subsequent refinement procedure can substantially increase the quality of their parameter estimates to the level on par with the best solution obtained from the population-based methods while maintaining high computational speed. These suggest that such hybrid methods can be a promising alternative to the more commonly used population-based methods for parameter estimation of gene circuit models when limited prior knowledge about the underlying regulatory mechanisms makes the size of the parameter search space vastly large. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A bivariate gamma probability distribution with application to gust modeling. [for the ascent flight of the space shuttle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, O. E.; Adelfang, S. I.; Tubbs, J. D.

1982-01-01

A five-parameter gamma distribution (BGD) having two shape parameters, two location parameters, and a correlation parameter is investigated. This general BGD is expressed as a double series and as a single series of the modified Bessel function. It reduces to the known special case for equal shape parameters. Practical functions for computer evaluations for the general BGD and for special cases are presented. Applications to wind gust modeling for the ascent flight of the space shuttle are illustrated.

SU(5) with nonuniversal gaugino masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajaib, M. Adeel

2018-02-01

We explore the sparticle spectroscopy of the supersymmetric SU(5) model with nonuniversal gaugino masses in light of latest experimental searches. We assume that the gaugino mass parameters are independent at the GUT scale. We find that the observed deviation in the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon can be explained in this model. The parameter space that explains this deviation predicts a heavy colored sparticle spectrum whereas the sleptons can be light. We also find a notable region of the parameter space that yields the desired relic abundance for dark matter. In addition, we analyze the model in light of latest limits from direct detection experiments and find that the parameter space corresponding to the observed deviation in the muon anomalous magnetic moment can be probed at some of the future direct detection experiments.

Deformation of the quintom cosmological model and its consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadeghi, J.; Pourhassan, B.; Nekouee, Z.; Shokri, M.

In this paper, we investigate the effects of noncommutative phase-space on the quintom cosmological model. In that case, we discuss about some cosmological parameters and show that they depend on the deformation parameters. We find that the noncommutative parameter plays important role which helps to re-arrange the divergency of cosmological constant. We draw time-dependent scale factor and investigate the effect of noncommutative parameters. Finally, we take advantage from noncommutative phase-space and obtain the deformed Lagrangian for the quintom model. In order to discuss some cosmological phenomena as dark energy and inflation, we employ Noether symmetry.

DSGRN: Examining the Dynamics of Families of Logical Models.

PubMed

Cummins, Bree; Gedeon, Tomas; Harker, Shaun; Mischaikow, Konstantin

2018-01-01

We present a computational tool DSGRN for exploring the dynamics of a network by computing summaries of the dynamics of switching models compatible with the network across all parameters. The network can arise directly from a biological problem, or indirectly as the interaction graph of a Boolean model. This tool computes a finite decomposition of parameter space such that for each region, the state transition graph that describes the coarse dynamical behavior of a network is the same. Each of these parameter regions corresponds to a different logical description of the network dynamics. The comparison of dynamics across parameters with experimental data allows the rejection of parameter regimes or entire networks as viable models for representing the underlying regulatory mechanisms. This in turn allows a search through the space of perturbations of a given network for networks that robustly fit the data. These are the first steps toward discovering a network that optimally matches the observed dynamics by searching through the space of networks.

Greedy Sampling and Incremental Surrogate Model-Based Tailoring of Aeroservoelastic Model Database for Flexible Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yi; Pant, Kapil; Brenner, Martin J.; Ouellette, Jeffrey A.

2018-01-01

This paper presents a data analysis and modeling framework to tailor and develop linear parameter-varying (LPV) aeroservoelastic (ASE) model database for flexible aircrafts in broad 2D flight parameter space. The Kriging surrogate model is constructed using ASE models at a fraction of grid points within the original model database, and then the ASE model at any flight condition can be obtained simply through surrogate model interpolation. The greedy sampling algorithm is developed to select the next sample point that carries the worst relative error between the surrogate model prediction and the benchmark model in the frequency domain among all input-output channels. The process is iterated to incrementally improve surrogate model accuracy till a pre-determined tolerance or iteration budget is met. The methodology is applied to the ASE model database of a flexible aircraft currently being tested at NASA/AFRC for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. Our studies indicate that the proposed method can reduce the number of models in the original database by 67%. Even so the ASE models obtained through Kriging interpolation match the model in the original database constructed directly from the physics-based tool with the worst relative error far below 1%. The interpolated ASE model exhibits continuously-varying gains along a set of prescribed flight conditions. More importantly, the selected grid points are distributed non-uniformly in the parameter space, a) capturing the distinctly different dynamic behavior and its dependence on flight parameters, and b) reiterating the need and utility for adaptive space sampling techniques for ASE model database compaction. The present framework is directly extendible to high-dimensional flight parameter space, and can be used to guide the ASE model development, model order reduction, robust control synthesis and novel vehicle design of flexible aircraft.

Sensitivity of Dynamical Systems to Banach Space Parameters

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-02-13

We consider general nonlinear dynamical systems in a Banach space with dependence on parameters in a second Banach space. An abstract theoretical ... framework for sensitivity equations is developed. An application to measure dependent delay differential systems arising in a class of HIV models is presented.

Two particle model for studying the effects of space-charge force on strong head-tail instabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, Yong Ho; Chao, Alexander Wu; Blaskiewicz, Michael M.

In this paper, we present a new two particle model for studying the strong head-tail instabilities in the presence of the space-charge force. It is a simple expansion of the well-known two particle model for strong head-tail instability and is still analytically solvable. No chromaticity effect is included. It leads to a formula for the growth rate as a function of the two dimensionless parameters: the space-charge tune shift parameter (normalized by the synchrotron tune) and the wakefield strength, Upsilon. The three-dimensional contour plot of the growth rate as a function of those two dimensionless parameters reveals stopband structures. Manymore » simulation results generally indicate that a strong head-tail instability can be damped by a weak space-charge force, but the beam becomes unstable again when the space-charge force is further increased. The new two particle model indicates a similar behavior. In weak space-charge regions, additional tune shifts by the space-charge force dissolve the mode coupling. As the space-charge force is increased, they conversely restore the mode coupling, but then a further increase of the space-charge force decouples the modes again. Lastly, this mode coupling/decoupling behavior creates the stopband structures.« less

Two particle model for studying the effects of space-charge force on strong head-tail instabilities

DOE PAGES

Chin, Yong Ho; Chao, Alexander Wu; Blaskiewicz, Michael M.

2016-01-19

In this paper, we present a new two particle model for studying the strong head-tail instabilities in the presence of the space-charge force. It is a simple expansion of the well-known two particle model for strong head-tail instability and is still analytically solvable. No chromaticity effect is included. It leads to a formula for the growth rate as a function of the two dimensionless parameters: the space-charge tune shift parameter (normalized by the synchrotron tune) and the wakefield strength, Upsilon. The three-dimensional contour plot of the growth rate as a function of those two dimensionless parameters reveals stopband structures. Manymore » simulation results generally indicate that a strong head-tail instability can be damped by a weak space-charge force, but the beam becomes unstable again when the space-charge force is further increased. The new two particle model indicates a similar behavior. In weak space-charge regions, additional tune shifts by the space-charge force dissolve the mode coupling. As the space-charge force is increased, they conversely restore the mode coupling, but then a further increase of the space-charge force decouples the modes again. Lastly, this mode coupling/decoupling behavior creates the stopband structures.« less

Exploring theory space with Monte Carlo reweighting

DOE PAGES

Gainer, James S.; Lykken, Joseph; Matchev, Konstantin T.; ...

2014-10-13

Theories of new physics often involve a large number of unknown parameters which need to be scanned. Additionally, a putative signal in a particular channel may be due to a variety of distinct models of new physics. This makes experimental attempts to constrain the parameter space of motivated new physics models with a high degree of generality quite challenging. We describe how the reweighting of events may allow this challenge to be met, as fully simulated Monte Carlo samples generated for arbitrary benchmark models can be effectively re-used. Specifically, we suggest procedures that allow more efficient collaboration between theorists andmore » experimentalists in exploring large theory parameter spaces in a rigorous way at the LHC.« less

Improving Mixed Variable Optimization of Computational and Model Parameters Using Multiple Surrogate Functions

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

multiplicative corrections as well as space mapping transformations for models defined over a lower dimensional space. A corrected surrogate model for the...correction functions used in [72]. If the low fidelity model g(x̃) is defined over a lower dimensional space then a space mapping transformation is...required. As defined in [21, 72], space mapping is a method of mapping between models of different dimensionality or fidelity. Let P denote the space

Computing the modal mass from the state space model in combined experimental-operational modal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cara, Javier

2016-05-01

Modal parameters comprise natural frequencies, damping ratios, modal vectors and modal masses. In a theoretic framework, these parameters are the basis for the solution of vibration problems using the theory of modal superposition. In practice, they can be computed from input-output vibration data: the usual procedure is to estimate a mathematical model from the data and then to compute the modal parameters from the estimated model. The most popular models for input-output data are based on the frequency response function, but in recent years the state space model in the time domain has become popular among researchers and practitioners of modal analysis with experimental data. In this work, the equations to compute the modal parameters from the state space model when input and output data are available (like in combined experimental-operational modal analysis) are derived in detail using invariants of the state space model: the equations needed to compute natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal vectors are well known in the operational modal analysis framework, but the equation needed to compute the modal masses has not generated much interest in technical literature. These equations are applied to both a numerical simulation and an experimental study in the last part of the work.

A derivation of the Cramer-Rao lower bound of euclidean parameters under equality constraints via score function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susyanto, Nanang

2017-12-01

We propose a simple derivation of the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) of parameters under equality constraints from the CRLB without constraints in regular parametric models. When a regular parametric model and an equality constraint of the parameter are given, a parametric submodel can be defined by restricting the parameter under that constraint. The tangent space of this submodel is then computed with the help of the implicit function theorem. Finally, the score function of the restricted parameter is obtained by projecting the efficient influence function of the unrestricted parameter on the appropriate inner product spaces.

Atomic Radius and Charge Parameter Uncertainty in Biomolecular Solvation Energy Calculations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Xiu; Lei, Huan; Gao, Peiyuan

Atomic radii and charges are two major parameters used in implicit solvent electrostatics and energy calculations. The optimization problem for charges and radii is under-determined, leading to uncertainty in the values of these parameters and in the results of solvation energy calculations using these parameters. This paper presents a method for quantifying this uncertainty in solvation energies using surrogate models based on generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions. There are relatively few atom types used to specify radii parameters in implicit solvation calculations; therefore, surrogate models for these low-dimensional spaces could be constructed using least-squares fitting. However, there are many moremore » types of atomic charges; therefore, construction of surrogate models for the charge parameter space required compressed sensing combined with an iterative rotation method to enhance problem sparsity. We present results for the uncertainty in small molecule solvation energies based on these approaches. Additionally, we explore the correlation between uncertainties due to radii and charges which motivates the need for future work in uncertainty quantification methods for high-dimensional parameter spaces.« less

SU-E-T-459: Dosimetric Consequences of Rotated Elliptical Proton Spots in Modeling In-Air Proton Fluence for Calculating Doses in Water of Proton Pencil Beams

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matysiak, W; Yeung, D; Hsi, W

2014-06-01

Purpose: We present a study of dosimetric consequences on doses in water in modeling in-air proton fluence independently along principle axes for rotated elliptical spots. Methods: Phase-space parameters for modeling in-air fluence are the position sigma for the spatial distribution, the angle sigma for the angular distribution, and the correlation between position and angle distributions. Proton spots of the McLaren proton therapy system were measured at five locations near the isocenter for the energies of 180 MeV and 250 MeV. An elongated elliptical spot rotated with respect to the principle axes was observed for the 180 MeV, while a circular-likemore » spot was observed for the 250 MeV. In the first approach, the phase-space parameters were derived in the principle axes without rotation. In the second approach, the phase space parameters were derived in the reference frame with axes rotated to coincide with the major axes of the elliptical spot. Monte-Carlo simulations with derived phase-space parameters using both approaches to tally doses in water were performed and analyzed. Results: For the rotated elliptical 180 MeV spots, the position sigmas were 3.6 mm and 3.2 mm in principle axes, but were 4.3 mm and 2.0 mm when the reference frame was rotated. Measured spots fitted poorly the uncorrelated 2D Gaussian, but the quality of fit was significantly improved after the reference frame was rotated. As a Result, phase space parameters in the rotated frame were more appropriate for modeling in-air proton fluence of 180 MeV protons. Considerable differences were observed in Monte Carlo simulated dose distributions in water with phase-space parameters obtained with the two approaches. Conclusion: For rotated elliptical proton spots, phase-space parameters obtained in the rotated reference frame are better for modeling in-air proton fluence, and can be introduced into treatment planning systems.« less

Tethered Satellites as an Enabling Platform for Operational Space Weather Monitoring Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilchrist, Brian E.; Krause, Linda Habash; Gallagher, Dennis Lee; Bilen, Sven Gunnar; Fuhrhop, Keith; Hoegy, Walt R.; Inderesan, Rohini; Johnson, Charles; Owens, Jerry Keith; Powers, Joseph;

Genomic data assimilation for estimating hybrid functional Petri net from time-course gene expression data.

PubMed

Nagasaki, Masao; Yamaguchi, Rui; Yoshida, Ryo; Imoto, Seiya; Doi, Atsushi; Tamada, Yoshinori; Matsuno, Hiroshi; Miyano, Satoru; Higuchi, Tomoyuki

2006-01-01

We propose an automatic construction method of the hybrid functional Petri net as a simulation model of biological pathways. The problems we consider are how we choose the values of parameters and how we set the network structure. Usually, we tune these unknown factors empirically so that the simulation results are consistent with biological knowledge. Obviously, this approach has the limitation in the size of network of interest. To extend the capability of the simulation model, we propose the use of data assimilation approach that was originally established in the field of geophysical simulation science. We provide genomic data assimilation framework that establishes a link between our simulation model and observed data like microarray gene expression data by using a nonlinear state space model. A key idea of our genomic data assimilation is that the unknown parameters in simulation model are converted as the parameter of the state space model and the estimates are obtained as the maximum a posteriori estimators. In the parameter estimation process, the simulation model is used to generate the system model in the state space model. Such a formulation enables us to handle both the model construction and the parameter tuning within a framework of the Bayesian statistical inferences. In particular, the Bayesian approach provides us a way of controlling overfitting during the parameter estimations that is essential for constructing a reliable biological pathway. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using synthetic data. As a result, parameter estimation using genomic data assimilation works very well and the network structure is suitably selected.

An Optimized Trajectory Planning for Welding Robot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhilong; Wang, Jun; Li, Shuting; Ren, Jun; Wang, Quan; Cheng, Qunchao; Li, Wentao

2018-03-01

In order to improve the welding efficiency and quality, this paper studies the combined planning between welding parameters and space trajectory for welding robot and proposes a trajectory planning method with high real-time performance, strong controllability and small welding error. By adding the virtual joint at the end-effector, the appropriate virtual joint model is established and the welding process parameters are represented by the virtual joint variables. The trajectory planning is carried out in the robot joint space, which makes the control of the welding process parameters more intuitive and convenient. By using the virtual joint model combined with the B-spline curve affine invariant, the welding process parameters are indirectly controlled by controlling the motion curve of the real joint. To solve the optimal time solution as the goal, the welding process parameters and joint space trajectory joint planning are optimized.

Bursting endemic bubbles in an adaptive network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherborne, N.; Blyuss, K. B.; Kiss, I. Z.

2018-04-01

The spread of an infectious disease is known to change people's behavior, which in turn affects the spread of disease. Adaptive network models that account for both epidemic and behavioral change have found oscillations, but in an extremely narrow region of the parameter space, which contrasts with intuition and available data. In this paper we propose a simple susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on an adaptive network with time-delayed rewiring, and show that oscillatory solutions are now present in a wide region of the parameter space. Altering the transmission or rewiring rates reveals the presence of an endemic bubble—an enclosed region of the parameter space where oscillations are observed.

Multiple-Shrinkage Multinomial Probit Models with Applications to Simulating Geographies in Public Use Data.

PubMed

Burgette, Lane F; Reiter, Jerome P

2013-06-01

Multinomial outcomes with many levels can be challenging to model. Information typically accrues slowly with increasing sample size, yet the parameter space expands rapidly with additional covariates. Shrinking all regression parameters towards zero, as often done in models of continuous or binary response variables, is unsatisfactory, since setting parameters equal to zero in multinomial models does not necessarily imply "no effect." We propose an approach to modeling multinomial outcomes with many levels based on a Bayesian multinomial probit (MNP) model and a multiple shrinkage prior distribution for the regression parameters. The prior distribution encourages the MNP regression parameters to shrink toward a number of learned locations, thereby substantially reducing the dimension of the parameter space. Using simulated data, we compare the predictive performance of this model against two other recently-proposed methods for big multinomial models. The results suggest that the fully Bayesian, multiple shrinkage approach can outperform these other methods. We apply the multiple shrinkage MNP to simulating replacement values for areal identifiers, e.g., census tract indicators, in order to protect data confidentiality in public use datasets.

Asymptotical AdS space from nonlinear gravitational models with stabilized extra dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Günther, U.; Moniz, P.; Zhuk, A.

2002-08-01

We consider nonlinear gravitational models with a multidimensional warped product geometry. Particular attention is payed to models with quadratic scalar curvature terms. It is shown that for certain parameter ranges, the extra dimensions are stabilized if the internal spaces have a negative constant curvature. In this case, the four-dimensional effective cosmological constant as well as the bulk cosmological constant become negative. As a consequence, the homogeneous and isotropic external space is asymptotically AdS4. The connection between the D-dimensional and the four-dimensional fundamental mass scales sets a restriction on the parameters of the considered nonlinear models.

Estimability of geodetic parameters from space VLBI observables

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adam, Jozsef

1990-01-01

The feasibility of space very long base interferometry (VLBI) observables for geodesy and geodynamics is investigated. A brief review of space VLBI systems from the point of view of potential geodetic application is given. A selected notational convention is used to jointly treat the VLBI observables of different types of baselines within a combined ground/space VLBI network. The basic equations of the space VLBI observables appropriate for convariance analysis are derived and included. The corresponding equations for the ground-to-ground baseline VLBI observables are also given for a comparison. The simplified expression of the mathematical models for both space VLBI observables (time delay and delay rate) include the ground station coordinates, the satellite orbital elements, the earth rotation parameters, the radio source coordinates, and clock parameters. The observation equations with these parameters were examined in order to determine which of them are separable or nonseparable. Singularity problems arising from coordinate system definition and critical configuration are studied. Linear dependencies between partials are analytically derived. The mathematical models for ground-space baseline VLBI observables were tested with simulation data in the frame of some numerical experiments. Singularity due to datum defect is confirmed.

Sensitivity analysis of the space shuttle to ascent wind profiles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, O. E.; Austin, L. D., Jr.

1982-01-01

A parametric sensitivity analysis of the space shuttle ascent flight to the wind profile is presented. Engineering systems parameters are obtained by flight simulations using wind profile models and samples of detailed (Jimsphere) wind profile measurements. The wind models used are the synthetic vector wind model, with and without the design gust, and a model of the vector wind change with respect to time. From these comparison analyses an insight is gained on the contribution of winds to ascent subsystems flight parameters.

LPV Modeling of a Flexible Wing Aircraft Using Modal Alignment and Adaptive Gridding Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Jiboory, Ali Khudhair; Zhu, Guoming; Swei, Sean Shan-Min; Su, Weihua; Nguyen, Nhan T.

2017-01-01

One of the earliest approaches in gain-scheduling control is the gridding based approach, in which a set of local linear time-invariant models are obtained at various gridded points corresponding to the varying parameters within the flight envelop. In order to ensure smooth and effective Linear Parameter-Varying control, aligning all the flexible modes within each local model and maintaining small number of representative local models over the gridded parameter space are crucial. In addition, since the flexible structural models tend to have large dimensions, a tractable model reduction process is necessary. In this paper, the notion of s-shifted H2- and H Infinity-norm are introduced and used as a metric to measure the model mismatch. A new modal alignment algorithm is developed which utilizes the defined metric for aligning all the local models over the entire gridded parameter space. Furthermore, an Adaptive Grid Step Size Determination algorithm is developed to minimize the number of local models required to represent the gridded parameter space. For model reduction, we propose to utilize the concept of Composite Modal Cost Analysis, through which the collective contribution of each flexible mode is computed and ranked. Therefore, a reduced-order model is constructed by retaining only those modes with significant contribution. The NASA Generic Transport Model operating at various flight speeds is studied for verification purpose, and the analysis and simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling approach.

Model-based high-throughput design of ion exchange protein chromatography.

PubMed

Khalaf, Rushd; Heymann, Julia; LeSaout, Xavier; Monard, Florence; Costioli, Matteo; Morbidelli, Massimo

2016-08-12

This work describes the development of a model-based high-throughput design (MHD) tool for the operating space determination of a chromatographic cation-exchange protein purification process. Based on a previously developed thermodynamic mechanistic model, the MHD tool generates a large amount of system knowledge and thereby permits minimizing the required experimental workload. In particular, each new experiment is designed to generate information needed to help refine and improve the model. Unnecessary experiments that do not increase system knowledge are avoided. Instead of aspiring to a perfectly parameterized model, the goal of this design tool is to use early model parameter estimates to find interesting experimental spaces, and to refine the model parameter estimates with each new experiment until a satisfactory set of process parameters is found. The MHD tool is split into four sections: (1) prediction, high throughput experimentation using experiments in (2) diluted conditions and (3) robotic automated liquid handling workstations (robotic workstation), and (4) operating space determination and validation. (1) Protein and resin information, in conjunction with the thermodynamic model, is used to predict protein resin capacity. (2) The predicted model parameters are refined based on gradient experiments in diluted conditions. (3) Experiments on the robotic workstation are used to further refine the model parameters. (4) The refined model is used to determine operating parameter space that allows for satisfactory purification of the protein of interest on the HPLC scale. Each section of the MHD tool is used to define the adequate experimental procedures for the next section, thus avoiding any unnecessary experimental work. We used the MHD tool to design a polishing step for two proteins, a monoclonal antibody and a fusion protein, on two chromatographic resins, in order to demonstrate it has the ability to strongly accelerate the early phases of process development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of behavior inferences from Bayesian state-space models: A case study with the Pacific walrus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beatty, William; Jay, Chadwick V.; Fischbach, Anthony S.

2016-01-01

State-space models offer researchers an objective approach to modeling complex animal location data sets, and state-space model behavior classifications are often assumed to have a link to animal behavior. In this study, we evaluated the behavioral classification accuracy of a Bayesian state-space model in Pacific walruses using Argos satellite tags with sensors to detect animal behavior in real time. We fit a two-state discrete-time continuous-space Bayesian state-space model to data from 306 Pacific walruses tagged in the Chukchi Sea. We matched predicted locations and behaviors from the state-space model (resident, transient behavior) to true animal behavior (foraging, swimming, hauled out) and evaluated classification accuracy with kappa statistics (κ) and root mean square error (RMSE). In addition, we compared biased random bridge utilization distributions generated with resident behavior locations to true foraging behavior locations to evaluate differences in space use patterns. Results indicated that the two-state model fairly classified true animal behavior (0.06 ≤ κ ≤ 0.26, 0.49 ≤ RMSE ≤ 0.59). Kernel overlap metrics indicated utilization distributions generated with resident behavior locations were generally smaller than utilization distributions generated with true foraging behavior locations. Consequently, we encourage researchers to carefully examine parameters and priors associated with behaviors in state-space models, and reconcile these parameters with the study species and its expected behaviors.

Optimization of a Thermodynamic Model Using a Dakota Toolbox Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cyrus, J.; Jafarov, E. E.; Schaefer, K. M.; Wang, K.; Clow, G. D.; Piper, M.; Overeem, I.

2016-12-01

Scientific modeling of the Earth physical processes is an important driver of modern science. The behavior of these scientific models is governed by a set of input parameters. It is crucial to choose accurate input parameters that will also preserve the corresponding physics being simulated in the model. In order to effectively simulate real world processes the models output data must be close to the observed measurements. To achieve this optimal simulation, input parameters are tuned until we have minimized the objective function, which is the error between the simulation model outputs and the observed measurements. We developed an auxiliary package, which serves as a python interface between the user and DAKOTA. The package makes it easy for the user to conduct parameter space explorations, parameter optimizations, as well as sensitivity analysis while tracking and storing results in a database. The ability to perform these analyses via a Python library also allows the users to combine analysis techniques, for example finding an approximate equilibrium with optimization then immediately explore the space around it. We used the interface to calibrate input parameters for the heat flow model, which is commonly used in permafrost science. We performed optimization on the first three layers of the permafrost model, each with two thermal conductivity coefficients input parameters. Results of parameter space explorations indicate that the objective function not always has a unique minimal value. We found that gradient-based optimization works the best for the objective functions with one minimum. Otherwise, we employ more advanced Dakota methods such as genetic optimization and mesh based convergence in order to find the optimal input parameters. We were able to recover 6 initially unknown thermal conductivity parameters within 2% accuracy of their known values. Our initial tests indicate that the developed interface for the Dakota toolbox could be used to perform analysis and optimization on a `black box' scientific model more efficiently than using just Dakota.

FracFit: A Robust Parameter Estimation Tool for Anomalous Transport Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, J. F.; Bolster, D.; Meerschaert, M. M.; Drummond, J. D.; Packman, A. I.

2016-12-01

Anomalous transport cannot be adequately described with classical Fickian advection-dispersion equations (ADE). Rather, fractional calculus models may be used, which capture non-Fickian behavior (e.g. skewness and power-law tails). FracFit is a robust parameter estimation tool based on space- and time-fractional models used to model anomalous transport. Currently, four fractional models are supported: 1) space fractional advection-dispersion equation (sFADE), 2) time-fractional dispersion equation with drift (TFDE), 3) fractional mobile-immobile equation (FMIE), and 4) tempered fractional mobile-immobile equation (TFMIE); additional models may be added in the future. Model solutions using pulse initial conditions and continuous injections are evaluated using stable distribution PDFs and CDFs or subordination integrals. Parameter estimates are extracted from measured breakthrough curves (BTCs) using a weighted nonlinear least squares (WNLS) algorithm. Optimal weights for BTCs for pulse initial conditions and continuous injections are presented, facilitating the estimation of power-law tails. Two sample applications are analyzed: 1) continuous injection laboratory experiments using natural organic matter and 2) pulse injection BTCs in the Selke river. Model parameters are compared across models and goodness-of-fit metrics are presented, assisting model evaluation. The sFADE and time-fractional models are compared using space-time duality (Baeumer et. al., 2009), which links the two paradigms.

An Open-Source Auto-Calibration Routine Supporting the Stormwater Management Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiernan, E. D.; Hodges, B. R.

2017-12-01

The stormwater management model (SWMM) is a clustered model that relies on subcatchment-averaged parameter assignments to correctly capture catchment stormwater runoff behavior. Model calibration is considered a critical step for SWMM performance, an arduous task that most stormwater management designers undertake manually. This research presents an open-source, automated calibration routine that increases the efficiency and accuracy of the model calibration process. The routine makes use of a preliminary sensitivity analysis to reduce the dimensions of the parameter space, at which point a multi-objective function, genetic algorithm (modified Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) determines the Pareto front for the objective functions within the parameter space. The solutions on this Pareto front represent the optimized parameter value sets for the catchment behavior that could not have been reasonably obtained through manual calibration.

A singular K-space model for fast reconstruction of magnetic resonance images from undersampled data.

PubMed

Luo, Jianhua; Mou, Zhiying; Qin, Binjie; Li, Wanqing; Ogunbona, Philip; Robini, Marc C; Zhu, Yuemin

2018-07-01

Reconstructing magnetic resonance images from undersampled k-space data is a challenging problem. This paper introduces a novel method of image reconstruction from undersampled k-space data based on the concept of singularizing operators and a novel singular k-space model. Exploring the sparsity of an image in the k-space, the singular k-space model (SKM) is proposed in terms of the k-space functions of a singularizing operator. The singularizing operator is constructed by combining basic difference operators. An algorithm is developed to reliably estimate the model parameters from undersampled k-space data. The estimated parameters are then used to recover the missing k-space data through the model, subsequently achieving high-quality reconstruction of the image using inverse Fourier transform. Experiments on physical phantom and real brain MR images have shown that the proposed SKM method constantly outperforms the popular total variation (TV) and the classical zero-filling (ZF) methods regardless of the undersampling rates, the noise levels, and the image structures. For the same objective quality of the reconstructed images, the proposed method requires much less k-space data than the TV method. The SKM method is an effective method for fast MRI reconstruction from the undersampled k-space data. Graphical abstract Two Real Images and their sparsified images by singularizing operator.

Transformation to equivalent dimensions—a new methodology to study earthquake clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasocki, Stanislaw

2014-05-01

A seismic event is represented by a point in a parameter space, quantified by the vector of parameter values. Studies of earthquake clustering involve considering distances between such points in multidimensional spaces. However, the metrics of earthquake parameters are different, hence the metric in a multidimensional parameter space cannot be readily defined. The present paper proposes a solution of this metric problem based on a concept of probabilistic equivalence of earthquake parameters. Under this concept the lengths of parameter intervals are equivalent if the probability for earthquakes to take values from either interval is the same. Earthquake clustering is studied in an equivalent rather than the original dimensions space, where the equivalent dimension (ED) of a parameter is its cumulative distribution function. All transformed parameters are of linear scale in [0, 1] interval and the distance between earthquakes represented by vectors in any ED space is Euclidean. The unknown, in general, cumulative distributions of earthquake parameters are estimated from earthquake catalogues by means of the model-free non-parametric kernel estimation method. Potential of the transformation to EDs is illustrated by two examples of use: to find hierarchically closest neighbours in time-space and to assess temporal variations of earthquake clustering in a specific 4-D phase space.

Charming dark matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jubb, Thomas; Kirk, Matthew; Lenz, Alexander

2017-12-01

We have considered a model of Dark Minimal Flavour Violation (DMFV), in which a triplet of dark matter particles couple to right-handed up-type quarks via a heavy colour-charged scalar mediator. By studying a large spectrum of possible constraints, and assessing the entire parameter space using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), we can place strong restrictions on the allowed parameter space for dark matter models of this type.

Joint Model and Parameter Dimension Reduction for Bayesian Inversion Applied to an Ice Sheet Flow Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghattas, O.; Petra, N.; Cui, T.; Marzouk, Y.; Benjamin, P.; Willcox, K.

2016-12-01

Model-based projections of the dynamics of the polar ice sheets play a central role in anticipating future sea level rise. However, a number of mathematical and computational challenges place significant barriers on improving predictability of these models. One such challenge is caused by the unknown model parameters (e.g., in the basal boundary conditions) that must be inferred from heterogeneous observational data, leading to an ill-posed inverse problem and the need to quantify uncertainties in its solution. In this talk we discuss the problem of estimating the uncertainty in the solution of (large-scale) ice sheet inverse problems within the framework of Bayesian inference. Computing the general solution of the inverse problem--i.e., the posterior probability density--is intractable with current methods on today's computers, due to the expense of solving the forward model (3D full Stokes flow with nonlinear rheology) and the high dimensionality of the uncertain parameters (which are discretizations of the basal sliding coefficient field). To overcome these twin computational challenges, it is essential to exploit problem structure (e.g., sensitivity of the data to parameters, the smoothing property of the forward model, and correlations in the prior). To this end, we present a data-informed approach that identifies low-dimensional structure in both parameter space and the forward model state space. This approach exploits the fact that the observations inform only a low-dimensional parameter space and allows us to construct a parameter-reduced posterior. Sampling this parameter-reduced posterior still requires multiple evaluations of the forward problem, therefore we also aim to identify a low dimensional state space to reduce the computational cost. To this end, we apply a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) approach to approximate the state using a low-dimensional manifold constructed using ``snapshots'' from the parameter reduced posterior, and the discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM) to approximate the nonlinearity in the forward problem. We show that using only a limited number of forward solves, the resulting subspaces lead to an efficient method to explore the high-dimensional posterior.

An AI-based approach to structural damage identification by modal analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glass, B. J.; Hanagud, S.

1990-01-01

Flexible-structure damage is presently addressed by a combined model- and parameter-identification approach which employs the AI methodologies of classification, heuristic search, and object-oriented model knowledge representation. The conditions for model-space search convergence to the best model are discussed in terms of search-tree organization and initial model parameter error. In the illustrative example of a truss structure presented, the use of both model and parameter identification is shown to lead to smaller parameter corrections than would be required by parameter identification alone.

A growing social network model in geographical space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonioni, Alberto; Tomassini, Marco

2017-09-01

In this work we propose a new model for the generation of social networks that includes their often ignored spatial aspects. The model is a growing one and links are created either taking space into account, or disregarding space and only considering the degree of target nodes. These two effects can be mixed linearly in arbitrary proportions through a parameter. We numerically show that for a given range of the combination parameter, and for given mean degree, the generated network class shares many important statistical features with those observed in actual social networks, including the spatial dependence of connections. Moreover, we show that the model provides a good qualitative fit to some measured social networks.

Risk Assessment of Bone Fracture During Space Exploration Missions to the Moon and Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Beth E.; Myers, Jerry G.; Nelson, Emily S.; Licatta, Angelo; Griffin, Devon

2007-01-01

The possibility of a traumatic bone fracture in space is a concern due to the observed decrease in astronaut bone mineral density (BMD) during spaceflight and because of the physical demands of the mission. The Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) was developed to quantify the probability of fracture at the femoral neck and lumbar spine during space exploration missions. The BFxRM is scenario-based, providing predictions for specific activities or events during a particular space mission. The key elements of the BFxRM are the mission parameters, the biomechanical loading models, the bone loss and fracture models and the incidence rate of the activity or event. Uncertainties in the model parameters arise due to variations within the population and unknowns associated with the effects of the space environment. Consequently, parameter distributions were used in Monte Carlo simulations to obtain an estimate of fracture probability under real mission scenarios. The model predicts an increase in the probability of fracture as the mission length increases and fracture is more likely in the higher gravitational field of Mars than on the moon. The resulting probability predictions and sensitivity analyses of the BFxRM can be used as an engineering tool for mission operation and resource planning in order to mitigate the risk of bone fracture in space.

Risk Assessment of Bone Fracture During Space Exploration Missions to the Moon and Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Beth E.; Myers, Jerry G.; Nelson, Emily S.; Griffin, Devon

2008-01-01

The possibility of a traumatic bone fracture in space is a concern due to the observed decrease in astronaut bone mineral density (BMD) during spaceflight and because of the physical demands of the mission. The Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) was developed to quantify the probability of fracture at the femoral neck and lumbar spine during space exploration missions. The BFxRM is scenario-based, providing predictions for specific activities or events during a particular space mission. The key elements of the BFxRM are the mission parameters, the biomechanical loading models, the bone loss and fracture models and the incidence rate of the activity or event. Uncertainties in the model parameters arise due to variations within the population and unknowns associated with the effects of the space environment. Consequently, parameter distributions were used in Monte Carlo simulations to obtain an estimate of fracture probability under real mission scenarios. The model predicts an increase in the probability of fracture as the mission length increases and fracture is more likely in the higher gravitational field of Mars than on the moon. The resulting probability predictions and sensitivity analyses of the BFxRM can be used as an engineering tool for mission operation and resource planning in order to mitigate the risk of bone fracture in space.

A joint-space numerical model of metabolic energy expenditure for human multibody dynamic system.

PubMed

Kim, Joo H; Roberts, Dustyn

2015-09-01

Metabolic energy expenditure (MEE) is a critical performance measure of human motion. In this study, a general joint-space numerical model of MEE is derived by integrating the laws of thermodynamics and principles of multibody system dynamics, which can evaluate MEE without the limitations inherent in experimental measurements (phase delays, steady state and task restrictions, and limited range of motion) or muscle-space models (complexities and indeterminacies from excessive DOFs, contacts and wrapping interactions, and reliance on in vitro parameters). Muscle energetic components are mapped to the joint space, in which the MEE model is formulated. A constrained multi-objective optimization algorithm is established to estimate the model parameters from experimental walking data also used for initial validation. The joint-space parameters estimated directly from active subjects provide reliable MEE estimates with a mean absolute error of 3.6 ± 3.6% relative to validation values, which can be used to evaluate MEE for complex non-periodic tasks that may not be experimentally verifiable. This model also enables real-time calculations of instantaneous MEE rate as a function of time for transient evaluations. Although experimental measurements may not be completely replaced by model evaluations, predicted quantities can be used as strong complements to increase reliability of the results and yield unique insights for various applications. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

System health monitoring using multiple-model adaptive estimation techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sifford, Stanley Ryan

Monitoring system health for fault detection and diagnosis by tracking system parameters concurrently with state estimates is approached using a new multiple-model adaptive estimation (MMAE) method. This novel method is called GRid-based Adaptive Parameter Estimation (GRAPE). GRAPE expands existing MMAE methods by using new techniques to sample the parameter space. GRAPE expands on MMAE with the hypothesis that sample models can be applied and resampled without relying on a predefined set of models. GRAPE is initially implemented in a linear framework using Kalman filter models. A more generalized GRAPE formulation is presented using extended Kalman filter (EKF) models to represent nonlinear systems. GRAPE can handle both time invariant and time varying systems as it is designed to track parameter changes. Two techniques are presented to generate parameter samples for the parallel filter models. The first approach is called selected grid-based stratification (SGBS). SGBS divides the parameter space into equally spaced strata. The second approach uses Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) to determine the parameter locations and minimize the total number of required models. LHS is particularly useful when the parameter dimensions grow. Adding more parameters does not require the model count to increase for LHS. Each resample is independent of the prior sample set other than the location of the parameter estimate. SGBS and LHS can be used for both the initial sample and subsequent resamples. Furthermore, resamples are not required to use the same technique. Both techniques are demonstrated for both linear and nonlinear frameworks. The GRAPE framework further formalizes the parameter tracking process through a general approach for nonlinear systems. These additional methods allow GRAPE to either narrow the focus to converged values within a parameter range or expand the range in the appropriate direction to track the parameters outside the current parameter range boundary. Customizable rules define the specific resample behavior when the GRAPE parameter estimates converge. Convergence itself is determined from the derivatives of the parameter estimates using a simple moving average window to filter out noise. The system can be tuned to match the desired performance goals by making adjustments to parameters such as the sample size, convergence criteria, resample criteria, initial sampling method, resampling method, confidence in prior sample covariances, sample delay, and others.

A probabilistic approach for the estimation of earthquake source parameters from spectral inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supino, M.; Festa, G.; Zollo, A.

2017-12-01

The amplitude spectrum of a seismic signal related to an earthquake source carries information about the size of the rupture, moment, stress and energy release. Furthermore, it can be used to characterize the Green's function of the medium crossed by the seismic waves. We describe the earthquake amplitude spectrum assuming a generalized Brune's (1970) source model, and direct P- and S-waves propagating in a layered velocity model, characterized by a frequency-independent Q attenuation factor. The observed displacement spectrum depends indeed on three source parameters, the seismic moment (through the low-frequency spectral level), the corner frequency (that is a proxy of the fault length) and the high-frequency decay parameter. These parameters are strongly correlated each other and with the quality factor Q; a rigorous estimation of the associated uncertainties and parameter resolution is thus needed to obtain reliable estimations.In this work, the uncertainties are characterized adopting a probabilistic approach for the parameter estimation. Assuming an L2-norm based misfit function, we perform a global exploration of the parameter space to find the absolute minimum of the cost function and then we explore the cost-function associated joint a-posteriori probability density function around such a minimum, to extract the correlation matrix of the parameters. The global exploration relies on building a Markov chain in the parameter space and on combining a deterministic minimization with a random exploration of the space (basin-hopping technique). The joint pdf is built from the misfit function using the maximum likelihood principle and assuming a Gaussian-like distribution of the parameters. It is then computed on a grid centered at the global minimum of the cost-function. The numerical integration of the pdf finally provides mean, variance and correlation matrix associated with the set of best-fit parameters describing the model. Synthetic tests are performed to investigate the robustness of the method and uncertainty propagation from the data-space to the parameter space. Finally, the method is applied to characterize the source parameters of the earthquakes occurring during the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence, with the goal of investigating the source parameter scaling with magnitude.

Bayesian inference for OPC modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burbine, Andrew; Sturtevant, John; Fryer, David; Smith, Bruce W.

2016-03-01

The use of optical proximity correction (OPC) demands increasingly accurate models of the photolithographic process. Model building and inference techniques in the data science community have seen great strides in the past two decades which make better use of available information. This paper aims to demonstrate the predictive power of Bayesian inference as a method for parameter selection in lithographic models by quantifying the uncertainty associated with model inputs and wafer data. Specifically, the method combines the model builder's prior information about each modelling assumption with the maximization of each observation's likelihood as a Student's t-distributed random variable. Through the use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, a model's parameter space is explored to find the most credible parameter values. During parameter exploration, the parameters' posterior distributions are generated by applying Bayes' rule, using a likelihood function and the a priori knowledge supplied. The MCMC algorithm used, an affine invariant ensemble sampler (AIES), is implemented by initializing many walkers which semiindependently explore the space. The convergence of these walkers to global maxima of the likelihood volume determine the parameter values' highest density intervals (HDI) to reveal champion models. We show that this method of parameter selection provides insights into the data that traditional methods do not and outline continued experiments to vet the method.

Data Driven Ionospheric Modeling in Relation to Space Weather: Percent Cloud Coverage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulunay, Y.; Senalp, E. T.; Tulunay, E.

2009-04-01

Since 1990, a small group at METU has been developing data driven models in order to forecast some critical system parameters related with the near-Earth space processes. The background on the subject supports new achievements, which contributed the COST 724 activities, which will contribute to the new ES0803 activities. This work mentions one of the outstanding contributions, namely forecasting of meteorological parameters by considering the probable influence of cosmic rays (CR) and sunspot numbers (SSN). The data-driven method is generic and applicable to many Near-Earth Space processes including ionospheric/plasmaspheric interactions. It is believed that the EURIPOS initiative would be useful in supplying wide range reliable data to the models developed. Quantification of physical mechanisms, which causally link Space Weather to the Earth's Weather, has been a challenging task. In this basis, the percent cloud coverage (%CC) and cloud top temperatures (CTT) were forecast one month ahead of time between geographic coordinates of (22.5˚N; 57.5˚N); and (7.5˚W; 47.5˚E) at 96 grid locations and covering the years of 1983 to 2000 using the Middle East Technical University Fuzzy Neural Network Model (METU-FNN-M) [Tulunay, 2008]. The Near Earth Space variability at several different time scales arises from a number of separate factors and the physics of the variations cannot be modeled due to the lack of current information about the parameters of several natural processes. CR are shielded by the magnetosphere to a certain extent, but they can modulate the low level cloud cover. METU-FNN-M was developed, trained and applied for forecasting the %CC and CTT, by considering the history of those meteorological variables; Cloud Optical Depth (COD); the Ionization (I) value that is formulized and computed by using CR data and CTT; SSN; temporal variables; and defuzified cloudiness. The temporal and spatial variables and the cut off rigidity are used to compute the defuzified cloudiness. The forecast %CC and CTT values at uniformly spaced grids over the region of interest are used for mapping by Bezier surfaces. The major advantage of the fuzzy model is that it uses its inputs and the expert knowledge in coordination. Long-term cloud analysis was performed on a region having differences in terms of atmospheric activity, in order to show the generalization capability. Global and local parameters of the process were considered. Both CR Flux and SSN reflect the influence of Space Weather on general planetary situation; but other parameters in the inputs of the model reflect local situation. Error and correlation analysis on the forecast and observed parameters were performed. The correlations between the forecast and observed parameters are very promising. The model contributes to the dependence of the cloud formation process on CR Fluxes. The one-month in advance forecast values of the model can also be used as inputs to other models, which forecast some other local or global parameters in order to further test the hypothesis on possible link(s) between Space Weather and the Earth's Weather. The model based, theoretical and numerical works mentioned are promising and have potential for future research and developments. References Tulunay Y., E.T. Şenalp, Ş. Öz, L.I. Dorman, E. Tulunay, S.S. Menteş and M.E. Akcan (2008), A Fuzzy Neural Network Model to Forecast the Percent Cloud Coverage and Cloud Top Temperature Maps, Ann. Geophys., 26(12), 3945-3954, 2008.

Analytical model of the structureborne interior noise induced by a propeller wake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Junger, M. C.; Garrelick, J. M.; Martinez, R.; Cole, J. E., III

1984-01-01

The structure-borne contribution to the interior noise that is induced by the propeller wake acting on the wing was studied. Analytical models were developed to describe each aspect of this path including the excitation loads, the wing and fuselage structures, and the interior acoustic space. The emphasis is on examining a variety of parameters, and as a result different models were developed to examine specific parameters. The excitation loading on the wing by the propeller wake is modeled by a distribution of rotating potential vortices whose strength is related to the thrust per blade. The response of the wing to this loading is examined using beam models. A model of a beam structurally connected to a cylindrical shell with an internal acoustic fluid was developed to examine the coupling of energy from the wing to the interior space. The model of the acoustic space allows for arbitrary end conditions (e.g., rigid or vibrating end caps). Calculations are presented using these models to compare with a laboratory test configuration as well as for parameters of a prop-fan aircraft.

Modeling and validation of photometric characteristics of space targets oriented to space-based observation.

PubMed

Wang, Hongyuan; Zhang, Wei; Dong, Aotuo

2012-11-10

A modeling and validation method of photometric characteristics of the space target was presented in order to track and identify different satellites effectively. The background radiation characteristics models of the target were built based on blackbody radiation theory. The geometry characteristics of the target were illustrated by the surface equations based on its body coordinate system. The material characteristics of the target surface were described by a bidirectional reflectance distribution function model, which considers the character of surface Gauss statistics and microscale self-shadow and is obtained by measurement and modeling in advance. The contributing surfaces of the target to observation system were determined by coordinate transformation according to the relative position of the space-based target, the background radiation sources, and the observation platform. Then a mathematical model on photometric characteristics of the space target was built by summing reflection components of all the surfaces. Photometric characteristics simulation of the space-based target was achieved according to its given geometrical dimensions, physical parameters, and orbital parameters. Experimental validation was made based on the scale model of the satellite. The calculated results fit well with the measured results, which indicates the modeling method of photometric characteristics of the space target is correct.

Cosmological space-times with resolved Big Bang in Yang-Mills matrix models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinacker, Harold C.

2018-02-01

We present simple solutions of IKKT-type matrix models that can be viewed as quantized homogeneous and isotropic cosmological space-times, with finite density of microstates and a regular Big Bang (BB). The BB arises from a signature change of the effective metric on a fuzzy brane embedded in Lorentzian target space, in the presence of a quantized 4-volume form. The Hubble parameter is singular at the BB, and becomes small at late times. There is no singularity from the target space point of view, and the brane is Euclidean "before" the BB. Both recollapsing and expanding universe solutions are obtained, depending on the mass parameters.

Influence of Constraint in Parameter Space on Quantum Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Hai-Jun; Fang, Xi-Ming

2004-04-01

We study the influence of the constraint in the parameter space on quantum games. Decomposing SU(2) operator into product of three rotation operators and controlling one kind of them, we impose a constraint on the parameter space of the players' operator. We find that the constraint can provide a tuner to make the bilateral payoffs equal, so that the mismatch of the players' action at multi-equilibrium could be avoided. We also find that the game exhibits an intriguing structure as a function of the parameter of the controlled operators, which is useful for making game models.

Astrophysical Model Selection in Gravitational Wave Astronomy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Matthew R.; Cornish, Neil J.; Littenberg, Tyson B.

2012-01-01

Theoretical studies in gravitational wave astronomy have mostly focused on the information that can be extracted from individual detections, such as the mass of a binary system and its location in space. Here we consider how the information from multiple detections can be used to constrain astrophysical population models. This seemingly simple problem is made challenging by the high dimensionality and high degree of correlation in the parameter spaces that describe the signals, and by the complexity of the astrophysical models, which can also depend on a large number of parameters, some of which might not be directly constrained by the observations. We present a method for constraining population models using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach which simultaneously infers the source parameters and population model and provides the joint probability distributions for both. We illustrate this approach by considering the constraints that can be placed on population models for galactic white dwarf binaries using a future space-based gravitational wave detector. We find that a mission that is able to resolve approximately 5000 of the shortest period binaries will be able to constrain the population model parameters, including the chirp mass distribution and a characteristic galaxy disk radius to within a few percent. This compares favorably to existing bounds, where electromagnetic observations of stars in the galaxy constrain disk radii to within 20%.

Efficient Characterization of Parametric Uncertainty of Complex (Bio)chemical Networks.

PubMed

Schillings, Claudia; Sunnåker, Mikael; Stelling, Jörg; Schwab, Christoph

2015-08-01

Parametric uncertainty is a particularly challenging and relevant aspect of systems analysis in domains such as systems biology where, both for inference and for assessing prediction uncertainties, it is essential to characterize the system behavior globally in the parameter space. However, current methods based on local approximations or on Monte-Carlo sampling cope only insufficiently with high-dimensional parameter spaces associated with complex network models. Here, we propose an alternative deterministic methodology that relies on sparse polynomial approximations. We propose a deterministic computational interpolation scheme which identifies most significant expansion coefficients adaptively. We present its performance in kinetic model equations from computational systems biology with several hundred parameters and state variables, leading to numerical approximations of the parametric solution on the entire parameter space. The scheme is based on adaptive Smolyak interpolation of the parametric solution at judiciously and adaptively chosen points in parameter space. As Monte-Carlo sampling, it is "non-intrusive" and well-suited for massively parallel implementation, but affords higher convergence rates. This opens up new avenues for large-scale dynamic network analysis by enabling scaling for many applications, including parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and systems design.

Efficient Characterization of Parametric Uncertainty of Complex (Bio)chemical Networks

PubMed Central

Schillings, Claudia; Sunnåker, Mikael; Stelling, Jörg; Schwab, Christoph

2015-01-01

Parametric uncertainty is a particularly challenging and relevant aspect of systems analysis in domains such as systems biology where, both for inference and for assessing prediction uncertainties, it is essential to characterize the system behavior globally in the parameter space. However, current methods based on local approximations or on Monte-Carlo sampling cope only insufficiently with high-dimensional parameter spaces associated with complex network models. Here, we propose an alternative deterministic methodology that relies on sparse polynomial approximations. We propose a deterministic computational interpolation scheme which identifies most significant expansion coefficients adaptively. We present its performance in kinetic model equations from computational systems biology with several hundred parameters and state variables, leading to numerical approximations of the parametric solution on the entire parameter space. The scheme is based on adaptive Smolyak interpolation of the parametric solution at judiciously and adaptively chosen points in parameter space. As Monte-Carlo sampling, it is “non-intrusive” and well-suited for massively parallel implementation, but affords higher convergence rates. This opens up new avenues for large-scale dynamic network analysis by enabling scaling for many applications, including parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and systems design. PMID:26317784

Efficient Stochastic Inversion Using Adjoint Models and Kernel-PCA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thimmisetty, Charanraj A.; Zhao, Wenju; Chen, Xiao

2017-10-18

Performing stochastic inversion on a computationally expensive forward simulation model with a high-dimensional uncertain parameter space (e.g. a spatial random field) is computationally prohibitive even when gradient information can be computed efficiently. Moreover, the ‘nonlinear’ mapping from parameters to observables generally gives rise to non-Gaussian posteriors even with Gaussian priors, thus hampering the use of efficient inversion algorithms designed for models with Gaussian assumptions. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian stochastic inversion methodology, which is characterized by a tight coupling between the gradient-based Langevin Markov Chain Monte Carlo (LMCMC) method and a kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). Thismore » approach addresses the ‘curse-of-dimensionality’ via KPCA to identify a low-dimensional feature space within the high-dimensional and nonlinearly correlated parameter space. In addition, non-Gaussian posterior distributions are estimated via an efficient LMCMC method on the projected low-dimensional feature space. We will demonstrate this computational framework by integrating and adapting our recent data-driven statistics-on-manifolds constructions and reduction-through-projection techniques to a linear elasticity model.« less

Propagation Effects in Space-Based Surveillance Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-02-01

This report describes the first year’s effort to investigate propagation effects in space - based radars. A model was developed for analyzing the...deleterious systems effects by first developing a generalized aperture distribution that ultimately can be applied to any space - based radar configuration...The propagation effects are characterized in terms of the SATCOM model striation parameters. The form of a generalized channel model for space - based radars

Creating Simulated Microgravity Patient Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurst, Victor; Doerr, Harold K.; Bacal, Kira

2004-01-01

The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) has been tasked by the Space and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to integrate medical simulation into 1) medical training for ground and flight crews and into 2) evaluations of medical procedures and equipment for the International Space Station (ISS). To do this, the MOST requires patient models that represent the physiological changes observed during spaceflight. Despite the presence of physiological data collected during spaceflight, there is no defined set of parameters that illustrate or mimic a 'space normal' patient. Methods: The MOST culled space-relevant medical literature and data from clinical studies performed in microgravity environments. The areas of focus for data collection were in the fields of cardiovascular, respiratory and renal physiology. Results: The MOST developed evidence-based patient models that mimic the physiology believed to be induced by human exposure to a microgravity environment. These models have been integrated into space-relevant scenarios using a human patient simulator and ISS medical resources. Discussion: Despite the lack of a set of physiological parameters representing 'space normal,' the MOST developed space-relevant patient models that mimic microgravity-induced changes in terrestrial physiology. These models are used in clinical scenarios that will medically train flight surgeons, biomedical flight controllers (biomedical engineers; BME) and, eventually, astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO).

Sensitivity study of Space Station Freedom operations cost and selected user resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Accola, Anne; Fincannon, H. J.; Williams, Gregory J.; Meier, R. Timothy

1990-01-01

The results of sensitivity studies performed to estimate probable ranges for four key Space Station parameters using the Space Station Freedom's Model for Estimating Space Station Operations Cost (MESSOC) are discussed. The variables examined are grouped into five main categories: logistics, crew, design, space transportation system, and training. The modification of these variables implies programmatic decisions in areas such as orbital replacement unit (ORU) design, investment in repair capabilities, and crew operations policies. The model utilizes a wide range of algorithms and an extensive trial logistics data base to represent Space Station operations. The trial logistics data base consists largely of a collection of the ORUs that comprise the mature station, and their characteristics based on current engineering understanding of the Space Station. A nondimensional approach is used to examine the relative importance of variables on parameters.

Model verification of large structural systems. [space shuttle model response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, L. T.; Hasselman, T. K.

1978-01-01

A computer program for the application of parameter identification on the structural dynamic models of space shuttle and other large models with hundreds of degrees of freedom is described. Finite element, dynamic, analytic, and modal models are used to represent the structural system. The interface with math models is such that output from any structural analysis program applied to any structural configuration can be used directly. Processed data from either sine-sweep tests or resonant dwell tests are directly usable. The program uses measured modal data to condition the prior analystic model so as to improve the frequency match between model and test. A Bayesian estimator generates an improved analytical model and a linear estimator is used in an iterative fashion on highly nonlinear equations. Mass and stiffness scaling parameters are generated for an improved finite element model, and the optimum set of parameters is obtained in one step.

Concept design theory and model for multi-use space facilities: Analysis of key system design parameters through variance of mission requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynerson, Charles Martin

This research has been performed to create concept design and economic feasibility data for space business parks. A space business park is a commercially run multi-use space station facility designed for use by a wide variety of customers. Both space hardware and crew are considered as revenue producing payloads. Examples of commercial markets may include biological and materials research, processing, and production, space tourism habitats, and satellite maintenance and resupply depots. This research develops a design methodology and an analytical tool to create feasible preliminary design information for space business parks. The design tool is validated against a number of real facility designs. Appropriate model variables are adjusted to ensure that statistical approximations are valid for subsequent analyses. The tool is used to analyze the effect of various payload requirements on the size, weight and power of the facility. The approach for the analytical tool was to input potential payloads as simple requirements, such as volume, weight, power, crew size, and endurance. In creating the theory, basic principles are used and combined with parametric estimation of data when necessary. Key system parameters are identified for overall system design. Typical ranges for these key parameters are identified based on real human spaceflight systems. To connect the economics to design, a life-cycle cost model is created based upon facility mass. This rough cost model estimates potential return on investments, initial investment requirements and number of years to return on the initial investment. Example cases are analyzed for both performance and cost driven requirements for space hotels, microgravity processing facilities, and multi-use facilities. In combining both engineering and economic models, a design-to-cost methodology is created for more accurately estimating the commercial viability for multiple space business park markets.

Torsion as a dark matter candidate from the Higgs portal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belyaev, Alexander S.; Thomas, Marc C.; Shapiro, Ilya L.

2017-05-01

Torsion is a metric-independent component of gravitation, which may provide a more general geometry than the one taking place within general relativity. On the other hand, torsion could lead to interesting phenomenology in both particle physics and cosmology. In the present work it is shown that a torsion field interacting with the SM Higgs doublet and having a negligible coupling to standard model (SM) fermions is protected from decaying by a Z2 symmetry, and therefore becomes a promising dark matter (DM) candidate. This model provides a good motivation for Higgs portal vector DM scenario. We evaluate the DM relic density and explore direct DM detection and collider constraints on this model to understand its consistency with experimental data and establish the most up-to-date limits on its parameter space. We have found in the model when the Higgs boson is only partly responsible for the generation of torsion mass, there is a region of parameter space where torsion contributes 100% to the DM budget of the Universe. Furthermore, we present the first results on the potential of the LHC to probe the parameter space of minimal scenario with Higgs portal vector DM using mono-jet searches and have found that LHC at high luminosity will be sensitive to the substantial part of model parameter space which cannot be probed by other experiments.

Muon g - 2 in the aligned two Higgs doublet model

DOE PAGES

Han, Tao; Kang, Sin Kyu; Sayre, Joshua

2016-02-16

In this paper, we study the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model with the aligned Yukawa sector (A2HDM) in light of the observed excess measured in the muon anomalous magnetic moment. We take into account the existing theoretical and experimental constraints with up-to-date values and demonstrate that a phenomenologically interesting region of parameter space exists. With a detailed parameter scan, we show a much larger region of viable parameter space in this model beyond the limiting case Type X 2HDM as obtained before. It features the existence of light scalar states with masses 3 GeV ≲ m H ≲ 50 GeV, or 10 GeVmore » ≲ m A ≲ 130 GeV, with enhanced couplings to tau leptons. The charged Higgs boson is typically heavier, with 200 GeV ≲ m H+ ≲ 630 GeV. The surviving parameter space is forced into the CP-conserving limit by EDM constraints. Some Standard Model observables may be significantly modified, including a possible new decay mode of the SMlike Higgs boson to four taus. Lastly, we comment on future measurements and direct searches for those effects at the LHC as tests of the model.« less

Can the Equivalent Sphere Model Approximate Organ Doses in Space Radiation Environments?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zi-Wei, Lin

2007-01-01

In space radiation calculations it is often useful to calculate the dose or dose equivalent in blood-forming organs (BFO). the skin or the eye. It has been customary to use a 5cm equivalent sphere to approximate the BFO dose. However previous studies have shown that a 5cm sphere gives conservative dose values for BFO. In this study we use a deterministic radiation transport with the Computerized Anatomical Man model to investigate whether the equivalent sphere model can approximate organ doses in space radiation environments. We find that for galactic cosmic rays environments the equivalent sphere model with an organ-specific constant radius parameter works well for the BFO dose equivalent and marginally well for the BFO dose and the dose equivalent of the eye or the skin. For solar particle events the radius parameters for the organ dose equivalent increase with the shielding thickness, and the model works marginally for BFO but is unacceptable for the eye or the skin The ranges of the radius parameters are also shown and the BFO radius parameters are found to be significantly larger than 5 cm in all eases.

Exploration of DGVM Parameter Solution Space Using Simulated Annealing: Implications for Forecast Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, J. R.; Kim, J. B.

2011-12-01

Parameters in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are thought to be weakly constrained and can be a significant source of errors and uncertainties. DGVMs use between 5 and 26 plant functional types (PFTs) to represent the average plant life form in each simulated plot, and each PFT typically has a dozen or more parameters that define the way it uses resource and responds to the simulated growing environment. Sensitivity analysis explores how varying parameters affects the output, but does not do a full exploration of the parameter solution space. The solution space for DGVM parameter values are thought to be complex and non-linear; and multiple sets of acceptable parameters may exist. In published studies, PFT parameters are estimated from published literature, and often a parameter value is estimated from a single published value. Further, the parameters are "tuned" using somewhat arbitrary, "trial-and-error" methods. BIOMAP is a new DGVM created by fusing MAPSS biogeography model with Biome-BGC. It represents the vegetation of North America using 26 PFTs. We are using simulated annealing, a global search method, to systematically and objectively explore the solution space for the BIOMAP PFTs and system parameters important for plant water use. We defined the boundaries of the solution space by obtaining maximum and minimum values from published literature, and where those were not available, using +/-20% of current values. We used stratified random sampling to select a set of grid cells representing the vegetation of the conterminous USA. Simulated annealing algorithm is applied to the parameters for spin-up and a transient run during the historical period 1961-1990. A set of parameter values is considered acceptable if the associated simulation run produces a modern potential vegetation distribution map that is as accurate as one produced by trial-and-error calibration. We expect to confirm that the solution space is non-linear and complex, and that multiple acceptable parameter sets exist. Further we expect to demonstrate that the multiple parameter sets produce significantly divergent future forecasts in NEP, C storage, and ET and runoff; and thereby identify a highly important source of DGVM uncertainty

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hasselman, T. K.; Chrostowski, Jon D.

1990-01-01

Uncertainty of frequency response using the fuzzy set method and on-orbit response prediction using laboratory test data to refine an analytical model are emphasized with respect to large space structures. Two aspects of the fuzzy set approach were investigated relative to its application to large structural dynamics problems: (1) minimizing the number of parameters involved in computing possible intervals; and (2) the treatment of extrema which may occur in the parameter space enclosed by all possible combinations of the important parameters of the model. Extensive printer graphics were added to the SSID code to help facilitate model verification, and an application of this code to the LaRC Ten Bay Truss is included in the appendix to illustrate this graphics capability.

Anomalous solute transport in saturated porous media: Relating transport model parameters to electrical and nuclear magnetic resonance properties

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swanson, Ryan D; Binley, Andrew; Keating, Kristina; France, Samantha; Osterman, Gordon; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Singha, Kamini

2015-01-01

The advection-dispersion equation (ADE) fails to describe commonly observed non-Fickian solute transport in saturated porous media, necessitating the use of other models such as the dual-domain mass-transfer (DDMT) model. DDMT model parameters are commonly calibrated via curve fitting, providing little insight into the relation between effective parameters and physical properties of the medium. There is a clear need for material characterization techniques that can provide insight into the geometry and connectedness of pore spaces related to transport model parameters. Here, we consider proton nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), direct-current (DC) resistivity, and complex conductivity (CC) measurements for this purpose, and assess these methods using glass beads as a control and two different samples of the zeolite clinoptilolite, a material that demonstrates non-Fickian transport due to intragranular porosity. We estimate DDMT parameters via calibration of a transport model to column-scale solute tracer tests, and compare NMR, DC resistivity, CC results, which reveal that grain size alone does not control transport properties and measured geophysical parameters; rather, volume and arrangement of the pore space play important roles. NMR cannot provide estimates of more-mobile and less-mobile pore volumes in the absence of tracer tests because these estimates depend critically on the selection of a material-dependent and flow-dependent cutoff time. Increased electrical connectedness from DC resistivity measurements are associated with greater mobile pore space determined from transport model calibration. CC was hypothesized to be related to length scales of mass transfer, but the CC response is unrelated to DDMT.

A generalized analysis of solar space heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, J. A.

A life-cycle model is developed for solar space heating within the United States. The model consists of an analytical relationship among five dimensionless parameters that include all pertinent technical, climatological, solar, operating and economic factors that influence the performance of a solar space heating system. An important optimum condition presented is the break-even metered cost of conventional fuel at which the cost of the solar system is equal to that of a conventional heating system. The effect of Federal (1980) and State (1979) income tax credits on these costs is determined. A parameter that includes both solar availability and solar system utilization is derived and plotted on a map of the U.S. This parameter shows the most favorable present locations for solar space heating application to be in the Central and Mountain States. The data employed are related to the rehabilitated solar data recently made available by the National Climatic Center.

Redshift-space distortions with the halo occupation distribution - II. Analytic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinker, Jeremy L.

2007-01-01

We present an analytic model for the galaxy two-point correlation function in redshift space. The cosmological parameters of the model are the matter density Ωm, power spectrum normalization σ8, and velocity bias of galaxies αv, circumventing the linear theory distortion parameter β and eliminating nuisance parameters for non-linearities. The model is constructed within the framework of the halo occupation distribution (HOD), which quantifies galaxy bias on linear and non-linear scales. We model one-halo pairwise velocities by assuming that satellite galaxy velocities follow a Gaussian distribution with dispersion proportional to the virial dispersion of the host halo. Two-halo velocity statistics are a combination of virial motions and host halo motions. The velocity distribution function (DF) of halo pairs is a complex function with skewness and kurtosis that vary substantially with scale. Using a series of collisionless N-body simulations, we demonstrate that the shape of the velocity DF is determined primarily by the distribution of local densities around a halo pair, and at fixed density the velocity DF is close to Gaussian and nearly independent of halo mass. We calibrate a model for the conditional probability function of densities around halo pairs on these simulations. With this model, the full shape of the halo velocity DF can be accurately calculated as a function of halo mass, radial separation, angle and cosmology. The HOD approach to redshift-space distortions utilizes clustering data from linear to non-linear scales to break the standard degeneracies inherent in previous models of redshift-space clustering. The parameters of the occupation function are well constrained by real-space clustering alone, separating constraints on bias and cosmology. We demonstrate the ability of the model to separately constrain Ωm,σ8 and αv in models that are constructed to have the same value of β at large scales as well as the same finger-of-god distortions at small scales.

Modeling and analysis of the space shuttle nose-gear tire with semianalytic finite elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyun O.; Noor, Ahmed K.; Tanner, John A.

1990-01-01

A computational procedure is presented for the geometrically nonlinear analysis of aircraft tires. The Space Shuttle Orbiter nose gear tire was modeled by using a two-dimensional laminated anisotropic shell theory with the effects of variation in material and geometric parameters included. The four key elements of the procedure are: (1) semianalytic finite elements in which the shell variables are represented by Fourier series in the circumferential direction and piecewise polynominals in the meridional direction; (2) a mixed formulation with the fundamental unknowns consisting of strain parameters, stress-resultant parameters, and generalized displacements; (3) multilevel operator splitting to effect successive simplifications, and to uncouple the equations associated with different Fourier harmonics; and (4) multilevel iterative procedures and reduction techniques to generate the response of the shell. Numerical results of the Space Shuttle Orbiter nose gear tire model are compared with experimental measurements of the tire subjected to inflation loading.

A Self-Organizing State-Space-Model Approach for Parameter Estimation in Hodgkin-Huxley-Type Models of Single Neurons

PubMed Central

Vavoulis, Dimitrios V.; Straub, Volko A.; Aston, John A. D.; Feng, Jianfeng

2012-01-01

Traditional approaches to the problem of parameter estimation in biophysical models of neurons and neural networks usually adopt a global search algorithm (for example, an evolutionary algorithm), often in combination with a local search method (such as gradient descent) in order to minimize the value of a cost function, which measures the discrepancy between various features of the available experimental data and model output. In this study, we approach the problem of parameter estimation in conductance-based models of single neurons from a different perspective. By adopting a hidden-dynamical-systems formalism, we expressed parameter estimation as an inference problem in these systems, which can then be tackled using a range of well-established statistical inference methods. The particular method we used was Kitagawa's self-organizing state-space model, which was applied on a number of Hodgkin-Huxley-type models using simulated or actual electrophysiological data. We showed that the algorithm can be used to estimate a large number of parameters, including maximal conductances, reversal potentials, kinetics of ionic currents, measurement and intrinsic noise, based on low-dimensional experimental data and sufficiently informative priors in the form of pre-defined constraints imposed on model parameters. The algorithm remained operational even when very noisy experimental data were used. Importantly, by combining the self-organizing state-space model with an adaptive sampling algorithm akin to the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy, we achieved a significant reduction in the variance of parameter estimates. The algorithm did not require the explicit formulation of a cost function and it was straightforward to apply on compartmental models and multiple data sets. Overall, the proposed methodology is particularly suitable for resolving high-dimensional inference problems based on noisy electrophysiological data and, therefore, a potentially useful tool in the construction of biophysical neuron models. PMID:22396632

Testing the reliability of ice-cream cone model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Zonghao; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Chuanbing; Liu, Kai; Xue, Xianghui; Wang, Yuming; Wang, Shui

2015-04-01

Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)'s properties are important to not only the physical scene itself but space-weather prediction. Several models (such as cone model, GCS model, and so on) have been raised to get rid of the projection effects within the properties observed by spacecraft. According to SOHO/ LASCO observations, we obtain the 'real' 3D parameters of all the FFHCMEs (front-side full halo Coronal Mass Ejections) within the 24th solar cycle till July 2012, by the ice-cream cone model. Considering that the method to obtain 3D parameters from the CME observations by multi-satellite and multi-angle has higher accuracy, we use the GCS model to obtain the real propagation parameters of these CMEs in 3D space and compare the results with which by ice-cream cone model. Then we could discuss the reliability of the ice-cream cone model.

Robust global identifiability theory using potentials--Application to compartmental models.

PubMed

Wongvanich, N; Hann, C E; Sirisena, H R

2015-04-01

This paper presents a global practical identifiability theory for analyzing and identifying linear and nonlinear compartmental models. The compartmental system is prolonged onto the potential jet space to formulate a set of input-output equations that are integrals in terms of the measured data, which allows for robust identification of parameters without requiring any simulation of the model differential equations. Two classes of linear and non-linear compartmental models are considered. The theory is first applied to analyze the linear nitrous oxide (N2O) uptake model. The fitting accuracy of the identified models from differential jet space and potential jet space identifiability theories is compared with a realistic noise level of 3% which is derived from sensor noise data in the literature. The potential jet space approach gave a match that was well within the coefficient of variation. The differential jet space formulation was unstable and not suitable for parameter identification. The proposed theory is then applied to a nonlinear immunological model for mastitis in cows. In addition, the model formulation is extended to include an iterative method which allows initial conditions to be accurately identified. With up to 10% noise, the potential jet space theory predicts the normalized population concentration infected with pathogens, to within 9% of the true curve. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Automated Design Space Exploration with Aspen

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spafford, Kyle L.; Vetter, Jeffrey S.

Architects and applications scientists often use performance models to explore a multidimensional design space of architectural characteristics, algorithm designs, and application parameters. With traditional performance modeling tools, these explorations forced users to first develop a performance model and then repeatedly evaluate and analyze the model manually. These manual investigations proved laborious and error prone. More importantly, the complexity of this traditional process often forced users to simplify their investigations. To address this challenge of design space exploration, we extend our Aspen (Abstract Scalable Performance Engineering Notation) language with three new language constructs: user-defined resources, parameter ranges, and a collection ofmore » costs in the abstract machine model. Then, we use these constructs to enable automated design space exploration via a nonlinear optimization solver. We show how four interesting classes of design space exploration scenarios can be derived from Aspen models and formulated as pure nonlinear programs. The analysis tools are demonstrated using examples based on Aspen models for a three-dimensional Fast Fourier Transform, the CoMD molecular dynamics proxy application, and the DARPA Streaming Sensor Challenge Problem. Our results show that this approach can compose and solve arbitrary performance modeling questions quickly and rigorously when compared to the traditional manual approach.« less

Automated Design Space Exploration with Aspen

DOE PAGES

Spafford, Kyle L.; Vetter, Jeffrey S.

2015-01-01

Architects and applications scientists often use performance models to explore a multidimensional design space of architectural characteristics, algorithm designs, and application parameters. With traditional performance modeling tools, these explorations forced users to first develop a performance model and then repeatedly evaluate and analyze the model manually. These manual investigations proved laborious and error prone. More importantly, the complexity of this traditional process often forced users to simplify their investigations. To address this challenge of design space exploration, we extend our Aspen (Abstract Scalable Performance Engineering Notation) language with three new language constructs: user-defined resources, parameter ranges, and a collection ofmore » costs in the abstract machine model. Then, we use these constructs to enable automated design space exploration via a nonlinear optimization solver. We show how four interesting classes of design space exploration scenarios can be derived from Aspen models and formulated as pure nonlinear programs. The analysis tools are demonstrated using examples based on Aspen models for a three-dimensional Fast Fourier Transform, the CoMD molecular dynamics proxy application, and the DARPA Streaming Sensor Challenge Problem. Our results show that this approach can compose and solve arbitrary performance modeling questions quickly and rigorously when compared to the traditional manual approach.« less

Does disc space height of fused segment affect adjacent degeneration in ALIF? A finite element study.

PubMed

Tang, Shujie; Meng, Xueying

2011-01-01

The restoration of disc space height of fused segment is essential in anterior lumbar interbody fusion, while the disc space height in many cases decreased postoperatively, which may adversely aggravate the adjacent segmental degeneration. However, no literature available focused on the issue. A normal healthy finite element model of L3-5 and four anterior lumbar interbody fusion models with different disc space height of fused segment were developed. 800 N compressive loading plus 10 Nm moments simulating flexion, extension, lateral bending and axial rotation were imposed on L3 superior endplate. The intradiscal pressure, the intersegmental rotation, the tresca stress and contact force of facet joints in L3-4 were investigated. Anterior lumbar interbody fusion with severely decreased disc space height presented with the highest values of the four parameters, and the normal healthy model presented with the lowest values except, under extension, the contact force of facet joints in normal healthy model is higher than that in normal anterior lumbar interbody fusion model. With disc space height decrease, the values of parameters in each anterior lumbar interbody fusion model increase gradually. Anterior lumbar interbody fusion with decreased disc space height aggravate the adjacent segmental degeneration more adversely.

Rational Design of Glucose-Responsive Insulin Using Pharmacokinetic Modeling.

PubMed

Bakh, Naveed A; Bisker, Gili; Lee, Michael A; Gong, Xun; Strano, Michael S

2017-11-01

A glucose responsive insulin (GRI) is a therapeutic that modulates its potency, concentration, or dosing of insulin in relation to a patient's dynamic glucose concentration, thereby approximating aspects of a normally functioning pancreas. Current GRI design lacks a theoretical basis on which to base fundamental design parameters such as glucose reactivity, dissociation constant or potency, and in vivo efficacy. In this work, an approach to mathematically model the relevant parameter space for effective GRIs is induced, and design rules for linking GRI performance to therapeutic benefit are developed. Well-developed pharmacokinetic models of human glucose and insulin metabolism coupled to a kinetic model representation of a freely circulating GRI are used to determine the desired kinetic parameters and dosing for optimal glycemic control. The model examines a subcutaneous dose of GRI with kinetic parameters in an optimal range that results in successful glycemic control within prescribed constraints over a 24 h period. Additionally, it is demonstrated that the modeling approach can find GRI parameters that enable stable glucose levels that persist through a skipped meal. The results provide a framework for exploring the parameter space of GRIs, potentially without extensive, iterative in vivo animal testing. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Permutation on hybrid natural inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carone, Christopher D.; Erlich, Joshua; Ramos, Raymundo; Sher, Marc

2014-09-01

We analyze a model of hybrid natural inflation based on the smallest non-Abelian discrete group S3. Leading invariant terms in the scalar potential have an accidental global symmetry that is spontaneously broken, providing a pseudo-Goldstone boson that is identified as the inflaton. The S3 symmetry restricts both the form of the inflaton potential and the couplings of the inflaton field to the waterfall fields responsible for the end of inflation. We identify viable points in the model parameter space. Although the power in tensor modes is small in most of the parameter space of the model, we identify parameter choices that yield potentially observable values of r without super-Planckian initial values of the inflaton field.

Looking for the WIMP next door

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Jared A.; Gori, Stefania; Shelton, Jessie

2018-02-01

We comprehensively study experimental constraints and prospects for a class of minimal hidden sector dark matter (DM) models, highlighting how the cosmological history of these models informs the experimental signals. We study simple `secluded' models, where the DM freezes out into unstable dark mediator states, and consider the minimal cosmic history of this dark sector, where coupling of the dark mediator to the SM was sufficient to keep the two sectors in thermal equilibrium at early times. In the well-motivated case where the dark mediators couple to the Standard Model (SM) via renormalizable interactions, the requirement of thermal equilibrium provides a minimal, UV-insensitive, and predictive cosmology for hidden sector dark matter. We call DM that freezes out of a dark radiation bath in thermal equilibrium with the SM a WIMP next door, and demonstrate that the parameter space for such WIMPs next door is sharply defined, bounded, and in large part potentially accessible. This parameter space, and the corresponding signals, depend on the leading interaction between the SM and the dark mediator; we establish it for both Higgs and vector portal interactions. In particular, there is a cosmological lower bound on the portal coupling strength necessary to thermalize the two sectors in the early universe. We determine this thermalization floor as a function of equilibration temperature for the first time. We demonstrate that direct detection experiments are currently probing this cosmological lower bound in some regions of parameter space, while indirect detection signals and terrestrial searches for the mediator cut further into the viable parameter space. We present regions of interest for both direct detection and dark mediator searches, including motivated parameter space for the direct detection of sub-GeV DM.

Surrogate models for sheet metal stamping problem based on the combination of proper orthogonal decomposition and radial basis function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dang, Van Tuan; Lafon, Pascal; Labergere, Carl

2017-10-01

In this work, a combination of Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) is proposed to build a surrogate model based on the Benchmark Springback 3D bending from the Numisheet2011 congress. The influence of the two design parameters, the geometrical parameter of the die radius and the process parameter of the blank holder force, on the springback of the sheet after a stamping operation is analyzed. The classical Design of Experience (DoE) uses Full Factorial to design the parameter space with sample points as input data for finite element method (FEM) numerical simulation of the sheet metal stamping process. The basic idea is to consider the design parameters as additional dimensions for the solution of the displacement fields. The order of the resultant high-fidelity model is reduced through the use of POD method which performs model space reduction and results in the basis functions of the low order model. Specifically, the snapshot method is used in our work, in which the basis functions is derived from snapshot deviation of the matrix of the final displacements fields of the FEM numerical simulation. The obtained basis functions are then used to determine the POD coefficients and RBF is used for the interpolation of these POD coefficients over the parameter space. Finally, the presented POD-RBF approach which is used for shape optimization can be performed with high accuracy.

Learning maximum entropy models from finite-size data sets: A fast data-driven algorithm allows sampling from the posterior distribution.

PubMed

Ferrari, Ulisse

2016-08-01

Maximum entropy models provide the least constrained probability distributions that reproduce statistical properties of experimental datasets. In this work we characterize the learning dynamics that maximizes the log-likelihood in the case of large but finite datasets. We first show how the steepest descent dynamics is not optimal as it is slowed down by the inhomogeneous curvature of the model parameters' space. We then provide a way for rectifying this space which relies only on dataset properties and does not require large computational efforts. We conclude by solving the long-time limit of the parameters' dynamics including the randomness generated by the systematic use of Gibbs sampling. In this stochastic framework, rather than converging to a fixed point, the dynamics reaches a stationary distribution, which for the rectified dynamics reproduces the posterior distribution of the parameters. We sum up all these insights in a "rectified" data-driven algorithm that is fast and by sampling from the parameters' posterior avoids both under- and overfitting along all the directions of the parameters' space. Through the learning of pairwise Ising models from the recording of a large population of retina neurons, we show how our algorithm outperforms the steepest descent method.

Spiral computed tomography phase-space source model in the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc Monte Carlo system: implementation and validation.

PubMed

Kim, Sangroh; Yoshizumi, Terry T; Yin, Fang-Fang; Chetty, Indrin J

2013-04-21

Currently, the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc Monte Carlo (MC) system does not provide a spiral CT source model for the simulation of spiral CT scanning. We developed and validated a spiral CT phase-space source model in the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc system. The spiral phase-space source model was implemented in the DOSXYZnrc user code of the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc system by analyzing the geometry of spiral CT scan-scan range, initial angle, rotational direction, pitch, slice thickness, etc. Table movement was simulated by changing the coordinates of the isocenter as a function of beam angles. Some parameters such as pitch, slice thickness and translation per rotation were also incorporated into the model to make the new phase-space source model, designed specifically for spiral CT scan simulations. The source model was hard-coded by modifying the 'ISource = 8: Phase-Space Source Incident from Multiple Directions' in the srcxyznrc.mortran and dosxyznrc.mortran files in the DOSXYZnrc user code. In order to verify the implementation, spiral CT scans were simulated in a CT dose index phantom using the validated x-ray tube model of a commercial CT simulator for both the original multi-direction source (ISOURCE = 8) and the new phase-space source model in the DOSXYZnrc system. Then the acquired 2D and 3D dose distributions were analyzed with respect to the input parameters for various pitch values. In addition, surface-dose profiles were also measured for a patient CT scan protocol using radiochromic film and were compared with the MC simulations. The new phase-space source model was found to simulate the spiral CT scanning in a single simulation run accurately. It also produced the equivalent dose distribution of the ISOURCE = 8 model for the same CT scan parameters. The MC-simulated surface profiles were well matched to the film measurement overall within 10%. The new spiral CT phase-space source model was implemented in the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc system. This work will be beneficial in estimating the spiral CT scan dose in the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc system.

Spiral computed tomography phase-space source model in the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc Monte Carlo system: implementation and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sangroh; Yoshizumi, Terry T.; Yin, Fang-Fang; Chetty, Indrin J.

2013-04-01

Currently, the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc Monte Carlo (MC) system does not provide a spiral CT source model for the simulation of spiral CT scanning. We developed and validated a spiral CT phase-space source model in the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc system. The spiral phase-space source model was implemented in the DOSXYZnrc user code of the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc system by analyzing the geometry of spiral CT scan—scan range, initial angle, rotational direction, pitch, slice thickness, etc. Table movement was simulated by changing the coordinates of the isocenter as a function of beam angles. Some parameters such as pitch, slice thickness and translation per rotation were also incorporated into the model to make the new phase-space source model, designed specifically for spiral CT scan simulations. The source model was hard-coded by modifying the ‘ISource = 8: Phase-Space Source Incident from Multiple Directions’ in the srcxyznrc.mortran and dosxyznrc.mortran files in the DOSXYZnrc user code. In order to verify the implementation, spiral CT scans were simulated in a CT dose index phantom using the validated x-ray tube model of a commercial CT simulator for both the original multi-direction source (ISOURCE = 8) and the new phase-space source model in the DOSXYZnrc system. Then the acquired 2D and 3D dose distributions were analyzed with respect to the input parameters for various pitch values. In addition, surface-dose profiles were also measured for a patient CT scan protocol using radiochromic film and were compared with the MC simulations. The new phase-space source model was found to simulate the spiral CT scanning in a single simulation run accurately. It also produced the equivalent dose distribution of the ISOURCE = 8 model for the same CT scan parameters. The MC-simulated surface profiles were well matched to the film measurement overall within 10%. The new spiral CT phase-space source model was implemented in the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc system. This work will be beneficial in estimating the spiral CT scan dose in the BEAMnrc/EGSnrc system.

The determination of operational and support requirements and costs during the conceptual design of space systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ebeling, Charles; Beasley, Kenneth D.

1992-01-01

The first year of research to provide NASA support in predicting operational and support parameters and costs of proposed space systems is reported. Some of the specific research objectives were (1) to develop a methodology for deriving reliability and maintainability parameters and, based upon their estimates, determine the operational capability and support costs, and (2) to identify data sources and establish an initial data base to implement the methodology. Implementation of the methodology is accomplished through the development of a comprehensive computer model. While the model appears to work reasonably well when applied to aircraft systems, it was not accurate when used for space systems. The model is dynamic and should be updated as new data become available. It is particularly important to integrate the current aircraft data base with data obtained from the Space Shuttle and other space systems since subsystems unique to a space vehicle require data not available from aircraft. This research only addressed the major subsystems on the vehicle.

Management of groundwater in-situ bioremediation system using reactive transport modelling under parametric uncertainty: field scale application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verardo, E.; Atteia, O.; Rouvreau, L.

2015-12-01

In-situ bioremediation is a commonly used remediation technology to clean up the subsurface of petroleum-contaminated sites. Forecasting remedial performance (in terms of flux and mass reduction) is a challenge due to uncertainties associated with source properties and the uncertainties associated with contribution and efficiency of concentration reducing mechanisms. In this study, predictive uncertainty analysis of bio-remediation system efficiency is carried out with the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) method which combines the calibration solution-space parameters with the ensemble of null-space parameters, creating sets of calibration-constrained parameters for input to follow-on remedial efficiency. The first step in the NSMC methodology for uncertainty analysis is model calibration. The model calibration was conducted by matching simulated BTEX concentration to a total of 48 observations from historical data before implementation of treatment. Two different bio-remediation designs were then implemented in the calibrated model. The first consists in pumping/injection wells and the second in permeable barrier coupled with infiltration across slotted piping. The NSMC method was used to calculate 1000 calibration-constrained parameter sets for the two different models. Several variants of the method were implemented to investigate their effect on the efficiency of the NSMC method. The first variant implementation of the NSMC is based on a single calibrated model. In the second variant, models were calibrated from different initial parameter sets. NSMC calibration-constrained parameter sets were sampled from these different calibrated models. We demonstrate that in context of nonlinear model, second variant avoids to underestimate parameter uncertainty which may lead to a poor quantification of predictive uncertainty. Application of the proposed approach to manage bioremediation of groundwater in a real site shows that it is effective to provide support in management of the in-situ bioremediation systems. Moreover, this study demonstrates that the NSMC method provides a computationally efficient and practical methodology of utilizing model predictive uncertainty methods in environmental management.

Bottom-up modeling approach for the quantitative estimation of parameters in pathogen-host interactions

PubMed Central

Lehnert, Teresa; Timme, Sandra; Pollmächer, Johannes; Hünniger, Kerstin; Kurzai, Oliver; Figge, Marc Thilo

2015-01-01

Opportunistic fungal pathogens can cause bloodstream infection and severe sepsis upon entering the blood stream of the host. The early immune response in human blood comprises the elimination of pathogens by antimicrobial peptides and innate immune cells, such as neutrophils or monocytes. Mathematical modeling is a predictive method to examine these complex processes and to quantify the dynamics of pathogen-host interactions. Since model parameters are often not directly accessible from experiment, their estimation is required by calibrating model predictions with experimental data. Depending on the complexity of the mathematical model, parameter estimation can be associated with excessively high computational costs in terms of run time and memory. We apply a strategy for reliable parameter estimation where different modeling approaches with increasing complexity are used that build on one another. This bottom-up modeling approach is applied to an experimental human whole-blood infection assay for Candida albicans. Aiming for the quantification of the relative impact of different routes of the immune response against this human-pathogenic fungus, we start from a non-spatial state-based model (SBM), because this level of model complexity allows estimating a priori unknown transition rates between various system states by the global optimization method simulated annealing. Building on the non-spatial SBM, an agent-based model (ABM) is implemented that incorporates the migration of interacting cells in three-dimensional space. The ABM takes advantage of estimated parameters from the non-spatial SBM, leading to a decreased dimensionality of the parameter space. This space can be scanned using a local optimization approach, i.e., least-squares error estimation based on an adaptive regular grid search, to predict cell migration parameters that are not accessible in experiment. In the future, spatio-temporal simulations of whole-blood samples may enable timely stratification of sepsis patients by distinguishing hyper-inflammatory from paralytic phases in immune dysregulation. PMID:26150807

Bottom-up modeling approach for the quantitative estimation of parameters in pathogen-host interactions.

PubMed

Lehnert, Teresa; Timme, Sandra; Pollmächer, Johannes; Hünniger, Kerstin; Kurzai, Oliver; Figge, Marc Thilo

2015-01-01

Opportunistic fungal pathogens can cause bloodstream infection and severe sepsis upon entering the blood stream of the host. The early immune response in human blood comprises the elimination of pathogens by antimicrobial peptides and innate immune cells, such as neutrophils or monocytes. Mathematical modeling is a predictive method to examine these complex processes and to quantify the dynamics of pathogen-host interactions. Since model parameters are often not directly accessible from experiment, their estimation is required by calibrating model predictions with experimental data. Depending on the complexity of the mathematical model, parameter estimation can be associated with excessively high computational costs in terms of run time and memory. We apply a strategy for reliable parameter estimation where different modeling approaches with increasing complexity are used that build on one another. This bottom-up modeling approach is applied to an experimental human whole-blood infection assay for Candida albicans. Aiming for the quantification of the relative impact of different routes of the immune response against this human-pathogenic fungus, we start from a non-spatial state-based model (SBM), because this level of model complexity allows estimating a priori unknown transition rates between various system states by the global optimization method simulated annealing. Building on the non-spatial SBM, an agent-based model (ABM) is implemented that incorporates the migration of interacting cells in three-dimensional space. The ABM takes advantage of estimated parameters from the non-spatial SBM, leading to a decreased dimensionality of the parameter space. This space can be scanned using a local optimization approach, i.e., least-squares error estimation based on an adaptive regular grid search, to predict cell migration parameters that are not accessible in experiment. In the future, spatio-temporal simulations of whole-blood samples may enable timely stratification of sepsis patients by distinguishing hyper-inflammatory from paralytic phases in immune dysregulation.

Use of Linear Prediction Uncertainty Analysis to Guide Conditioning of Models Simulating Surface-Water/Groundwater Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; White, J.; Doherty, J.

2011-12-01

Linear prediction uncertainty analysis in a Bayesian framework was applied to guide the conditioning of an integrated surface water/groundwater model that will be used to predict the effects of groundwater withdrawals on surface-water and groundwater flows. Linear prediction uncertainty analysis is an effective approach for identifying (1) raw and processed data most effective for model conditioning prior to inversion, (2) specific observations and periods of time critically sensitive to specific predictions, and (3) additional observation data that would reduce model uncertainty relative to specific predictions. We present results for a two-dimensional groundwater model of a 2,186 km2 area of the Biscayne aquifer in south Florida implicitly coupled to a surface-water routing model of the actively managed canal system. The model domain includes 5 municipal well fields withdrawing more than 1 Mm3/day and 17 operable surface-water control structures that control freshwater releases from the Everglades and freshwater discharges to Biscayne Bay. More than 10 years of daily observation data from 35 groundwater wells and 24 surface water gages are available to condition model parameters. A dense parameterization was used to fully characterize the contribution of the inversion null space to predictive uncertainty and included bias-correction parameters. This approach allows better resolution of the boundary between the inversion null space and solution space. Bias-correction parameters (e.g., rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and structure flow multipliers) absorb information that is present in structural noise that may otherwise contaminate the estimation of more physically-based model parameters. This allows greater precision in predictions that are entirely solution-space dependent, and reduces the propensity for bias in predictions that are not. Results show that application of this analysis is an effective means of identifying those surface-water and groundwater data, both raw and processed, that minimize predictive uncertainty, while simultaneously identifying the maximum solution-space dimensionality of the inverse problem supported by the data.

SP_Ace: Stellar Parameters And Chemical abundances Estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boeche, C.; Grebel, E. K.

2018-05-01

SP_Ace (Stellar Parameters And Chemical abundances Estimator) estimates the stellar parameters Teff, log g, [M/H], and elemental abundances. It employs 1D stellar atmosphere models in Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE). The code is highly automated and suitable for analyzing the spectra of large spectroscopic surveys with low or medium spectral resolution (R = 2000-20 000). A web service for calculating these values with the software is also available.

Vector boson fusion in the inert doublet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, Bhaskar; Palacio, Guillermo; Restrepo, Diego; Ruiz-Álvarez, José D.

2018-03-01

In this paper we probe the inert Higgs doublet model at the LHC using vector boson fusion (VBF) search strategy. We optimize the selection cuts and investigate the parameter space of the model and we show that the VBF search has a better reach when compared with the monojet searches. We also investigate the Drell-Yan type cuts and show that they can be important for smaller charged Higgs masses. We determine the 3 σ reach for the parameter space using these optimized cuts for a luminosity of 3000 fb-1 .

Genetic Algorithm-Based Model Order Reduction of Aeroservoelastic Systems with Consistant States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Jin; Wang, Yi; Pant, Kapil; Suh, Peter M.; Brenner, Martin J.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a model order reduction framework to construct linear parameter-varying reduced-order models of flexible aircraft for aeroservoelasticity analysis and control synthesis in broad two-dimensional flight parameter space. Genetic algorithms are used to automatically determine physical states for reduction and to generate reduced-order models at grid points within parameter space while minimizing the trial-and-error process. In addition, balanced truncation for unstable systems is used in conjunction with the congruence transformation technique to achieve locally optimal realization and weak fulfillment of state consistency across the entire parameter space. Therefore, aeroservoelasticity reduced-order models at any flight condition can be obtained simply through model interpolation. The methodology is applied to the pitch-plant model of the X-56A Multi-Use Technology Testbed currently being tested at NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. The present studies indicate that the reduced-order model with more than 12× reduction in the number of states relative to the original model is able to accurately predict system response among all input-output channels. The genetic-algorithm-guided approach exceeds manual and empirical state selection in terms of efficiency and accuracy. The interpolated aeroservoelasticity reduced order models exhibit smooth pole transition and continuously varying gains along a set of prescribed flight conditions, which verifies consistent state representation obtained by congruence transformation. The present model order reduction framework can be used by control engineers for robust aeroservoelasticity controller synthesis and novel vehicle design.

Influence of Population Variation of Physiological Parameters in Computational Models of Space Physiology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, J. G.; Feola, A.; Werner, C.; Nelson, E. S.; Raykin, J.; Samuels, B.; Ethier, C. R.

2016-01-01

The earliest manifestations of Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome become evident after months of spaceflight and include a variety of ophthalmic changes, including posterior globe flattening and distension of the optic nerve sheath. Prevailing evidence links the occurrence of VIIP to the cephalic fluid shift induced by microgravity and the subsequent pressure changes around the optic nerve and eye. Deducing the etiology of VIIP is challenging due to the wide range of physiological parameters that may be influenced by spaceflight and are required to address a realistic spectrum of physiological responses. Here, we report on the application of an efficient approach to interrogating physiological parameter space through computational modeling. Specifically, we assess the influence of uncertainty in input parameters for two models of VIIP syndrome: a lumped-parameter model (LPM) of the cardiovascular and central nervous systems, and a finite-element model (FEM) of the posterior eye, optic nerve head (ONH) and optic nerve sheath. Methods: To investigate the parameter space in each model, we employed Latin hypercube sampling partial rank correlation coefficient (LHSPRCC) strategies. LHS techniques outperform Monte Carlo approaches by enforcing efficient sampling across the entire range of all parameters. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity of model outputs to these parameters while adjusting for the linear effects of all other inputs. The LPM analysis addressed uncertainties in 42 physiological parameters, such as initial compartmental volume and nominal compartment percentage of total cardiac output in the supine state, while the FEM evaluated the effects on biomechanical strain from uncertainties in 23 material and pressure parameters for the ocular anatomy. Results and Conclusion: The LPM analysis identified several key factors including high sensitivity to the initial fluid distribution. The FEM study found that intraocular pressure and intracranial pressure had dominant impact on the peak strains in the ONH and retro-laminar optic nerve, respectively; optic nerve and lamina cribrosa stiffness were also important. This investigation illustrates the ability of LHSPRCC to identify the most influential physiological parameters, which must therefore be well-characterized to produce the most accurate numerical results.

Recovering a Probabilistic Knowledge Structure by Constraining Its Parameter Space

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stefanutti, Luca; Robusto, Egidio

2009-01-01

In the Basic Local Independence Model (BLIM) of Doignon and Falmagne ("Knowledge Spaces," Springer, Berlin, 1999), the probabilistic relationship between the latent knowledge states and the observable response patterns is established by the introduction of a pair of parameters for each of the problems: a lucky guess probability and a careless…

On the impact of reducing global geophysical fluid model deformations in SLR data processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigelt, Matthias; Thaller, Daniela

2016-04-01

Mass redistributions in the atmosphere, oceans and the continental hydrology cause elastic loading deformations of the Earth's crust and thus systematically influence Earth-bound observation systems such as VLBI, GNSS or SLR. Causing non-linear station variations, these loading deformations have a direct impact on the estimated station coordinates and an indirect impact on other parameters of global space-geodetic solutions, e.g. Earth orientation parameters, geocenter coordinates, satellite orbits or troposphere parameters. Generally, the impact can be mitigated by co-parameterisation or by reducing deformations derived from global geophysical fluid models. Here, we focus on the latter approach. A number of data sets modelling the (non-tidal) loading deformations are generated by various groups. They show regionally and locally significant differences and consequently the impact on the space-geodetic solutions heavily depends on the available network geometry. We present and discuss the differences between these models and choose SLR as the speace-geodetic technique of interest in order to discuss the impact of atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological loading on the parameters of space-geodetic solutions when correcting for the global geophysical fluid models at the observation level. Special emphasis is given to a consistent usage of models for geometric and gravimetric corrections during the data processing. We quantify the impact of the different deformation models on the station coordinates and discuss the improvement in the Earth orientation parameters and the geocenter motion. We also show that a significant reduction in the RMS of the station coordinates can be achieved depending on the model of choice.

Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu; Li, Zhen; Karniadakis, George Em

2017-02-01

We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are "sparse". The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

Approximate Bayesian Computation by Subset Simulation using hierarchical state-space models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vakilzadeh, Majid K.; Huang, Yong; Beck, James L.; Abrahamsson, Thomas

2017-02-01

A new multi-level Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Approximate Bayesian Computation, ABC-SubSim, has recently appeared that exploits the Subset Simulation method for efficient rare-event simulation. ABC-SubSim adaptively creates a nested decreasing sequence of data-approximating regions in the output space that correspond to increasingly closer approximations of the observed output vector in this output space. At each level, multiple samples of the model parameter vector are generated by a component-wise Metropolis algorithm so that the predicted output corresponding to each parameter value falls in the current data-approximating region. Theoretically, if continued to the limit, the sequence of data-approximating regions would converge on to the observed output vector and the approximate posterior distributions, which are conditional on the data-approximation region, would become exact, but this is not practically feasible. In this paper we study the performance of the ABC-SubSim algorithm for Bayesian updating of the parameters of dynamical systems using a general hierarchical state-space model. We note that the ABC methodology gives an approximate posterior distribution that actually corresponds to an exact posterior where a uniformly distributed combined measurement and modeling error is added. We also note that ABC algorithms have a problem with learning the uncertain error variances in a stochastic state-space model and so we treat them as nuisance parameters and analytically integrate them out of the posterior distribution. In addition, the statistical efficiency of the original ABC-SubSim algorithm is improved by developing a novel strategy to regulate the proposal variance for the component-wise Metropolis algorithm at each level. We demonstrate that Self-regulated ABC-SubSim is well suited for Bayesian system identification by first applying it successfully to model updating of a two degree-of-freedom linear structure for three cases: globally, locally and un-identifiable model classes, and then to model updating of a two degree-of-freedom nonlinear structure with Duffing nonlinearities in its interstory force-deflection relationship.

Application of positive-real functions in hyperstable discrete model-reference adaptive system design.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karmarkar, J. S.

1972-01-01

Proposal of an algorithmic procedure, based on mathematical programming methods, to design compensators for hyperstable discrete model-reference adaptive systems (MRAS). The objective of the compensator is to render the MRAS insensitive to initial parameter estimates within a maximized hypercube in the model parameter space.

Analysis of helicopter flight dynamics through modeling and simulation of primary flight control actuation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Hunter Barton

A simplified second-order transfer function actuator model used in most flight dynamics applications cannot easily capture the effects of different actuator parameters. The present work integrates a nonlinear actuator model into a nonlinear state space rotorcraft model to determine the effect of actuator parameters on key flight dynamics. The completed actuator model was integrated with a swashplate kinematics where step responses were generated over a range of key hydraulic parameters. The actuator-swashplate system was then introduced into a nonlinear state space rotorcraft simulation where flight dynamics quantities such as bandwidth and phase delay analyzed. Frequency sweeps were simulated for unique actuator configurations using the coupled nonlinear actuator-rotorcraft system. The software package CIFER was used for system identification and compared directly to the linearized models. As the actuator became rate saturated, the effects on bandwidth and phase delay were apparent on the predicted handling qualities specifications.

Perspective Space as a Model for Distance and Size Perception.

PubMed

Erkelens, Casper J

2017-01-01

In the literature, perspective space has been introduced as a model of visual space. Perspective space is grounded on the perspective nature of visual space during both binocular and monocular vision. A single parameter, that is, the distance of the vanishing point, transforms the geometry of physical space into that of perspective space. The perspective-space model predicts perceived angles, distances, and sizes. The model is compared with other models for distance and size perception. Perspective space predicts that perceived distance and size as a function of physical distance are described by hyperbolic functions. Alternatively, power functions have been widely used to describe perceived distance and size. Comparison of power and hyperbolic functions shows that both functions are equivalent within the range of distances that have been judged in experiments. Two models describing perceived distance on the ground plane appear to be equivalent with the perspective-space model too. The conclusion is that perspective space unifies a number of models of distance and size perception.

Perspective Space as a Model for Distance and Size Perception

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

In the literature, perspective space has been introduced as a model of visual space. Perspective space is grounded on the perspective nature of visual space during both binocular and monocular vision. A single parameter, that is, the distance of the vanishing point, transforms the geometry of physical space into that of perspective space. The perspective-space model predicts perceived angles, distances, and sizes. The model is compared with other models for distance and size perception. Perspective space predicts that perceived distance and size as a function of physical distance are described by hyperbolic functions. Alternatively, power functions have been widely used to describe perceived distance and size. Comparison of power and hyperbolic functions shows that both functions are equivalent within the range of distances that have been judged in experiments. Two models describing perceived distance on the ground plane appear to be equivalent with the perspective-space model too. The conclusion is that perspective space unifies a number of models of distance and size perception. PMID:29225765

A realistic intersecting D6-brane model after the first LHC run

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tianjun; Nanopoulos, D. V.; Raza, Shabbar; Wang, Xiao-Chuan

2014-08-01

With the Higgs boson mass around 125 GeV and the LHC supersymmetry search constraints, we revisit a three-family Pati-Salam model from intersecting D6-branes in Type IIA string theory on the T 6/(ℤ2 × ℤ2) orientifold which has a realistic phenomenology. We systematically scan the parameter space for μ < 0 and μ > 0, and find that the gravitino mass is generically heavier than about 2 TeV for both cases due to the Higgs mass low bound 123 GeV. In particular, we identify a region of parameter space with the electroweak fine-tuning as small as Δ EW ~ 24-32 (3-4%). In the viable parameter space which is consistent with all the current constraints, the mass ranges for gluino, the first two-generation squarks and sleptons are respectively [3, 18] TeV, [3, 16] TeV, and [2, 7] TeV. For the third-generation sfermions, the light stop satisfying 5 σ WMAP bounds via neutralino-stop coannihilation has mass from 0.5 to 1.2 TeV, and the light stau can be as light as 800 GeV. We also show various coannihilation and resonance scenarios through which the observed dark matter relic density is achieved. Interestingly, the certain portions of parameter space has excellent t- b- τ and b- τ Yukawa coupling unification. Three regions of parameter space are highlighted as well where the dominant component of the lightest neutralino is a bino, wino or higgsino. We discuss various scenarios in which such solutions may avoid recent astrophysical bounds in case if they satisfy or above observed relic density bounds. Prospects of finding higgsino-like neutralino in direct and indirect searches are also studied. And we display six tables of benchmark points depicting various interesting features of our model. Note that the lightest neutralino can be heavy up to 2.8 TeV, and there exists a natural region of parameter space from low-energy fine-tuning definition with heavy gluino and first two-generation squarks/sleptons, we point out that the 33 TeV and 100 TeV proton-proton colliders are indeed needed to probe our D-brane model.

Improving the Fitness of High-Dimensional Biomechanical Models via Data-Driven Stochastic Exploration

PubMed Central

Bustamante, Carlos D.; Valero-Cuevas, Francisco J.

2010-01-01

The field of complex biomechanical modeling has begun to rely on Monte Carlo techniques to investigate the effects of parameter variability and measurement uncertainty on model outputs, search for optimal parameter combinations, and define model limitations. However, advanced stochastic methods to perform data-driven explorations, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), become necessary as the number of model parameters increases. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility and, what to our knowledge is, the first use of an MCMC approach to improve the fitness of realistically large biomechanical models. We used a Metropolis–Hastings algorithm to search increasingly complex parameter landscapes (3, 8, 24, and 36 dimensions) to uncover underlying distributions of anatomical parameters of a “truth model” of the human thumb on the basis of simulated kinematic data (thumbnail location, orientation, and linear and angular velocities) polluted by zero-mean, uncorrelated multivariate Gaussian “measurement noise.” Driven by these data, ten Markov chains searched each model parameter space for the subspace that best fit the data (posterior distribution). As expected, the convergence time increased, more local minima were found, and marginal distributions broadened as the parameter space complexity increased. In the 36-D scenario, some chains found local minima but the majority of chains converged to the true posterior distribution (confirmed using a cross-validation dataset), thus demonstrating the feasibility and utility of these methods for realistically large biomechanical problems. PMID:19272906

LEOrbit: A program to calculate parameters relevant to modeling Low Earth Orbit spacecraft-plasma interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchand, R.; Purschke, D.; Samson, J.

2013-03-01

Understanding the physics of interaction between satellites and the space environment is essential in planning and exploiting space missions. Several computer models have been developed over the years to study this interaction. In all cases, simulations are carried out in the reference frame of the spacecraft and effects such as charging, the formation of electrostatic sheaths and wakes are calculated for given conditions of the space environment. In this paper we present a program used to compute magnetic fields and a number of space plasma and space environment parameters relevant to Low Earth Orbits (LEO) spacecraft-plasma interaction modeling. Magnetic fields are obtained from the International Geophysical Reference Field (IGRF) and plasma parameters are obtained from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model. All parameters are computed in the spacecraft frame of reference as a function of its six Keplerian elements. They are presented in a format that can be used directly in most spacecraft-plasma interaction models. Catalogue identifier: AENY_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AENY_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 270308 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 2323222 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: FORTRAN 90. Computer: Non specific. Operating system: Non specific. RAM: 7.1 MB Classification: 19, 4.14. External routines: IRI, IGRF (included in the package). Nature of problem: Compute magnetic field components, direction of the sun, sun visibility factor and approximate plasma parameters in the reference frame of a Low Earth Orbit satellite. Solution method: Orbit integration, calls to IGRF and IRI libraries and transformation of coordinates from geocentric to spacecraft frame reference. Restrictions: Low Earth orbits, altitudes between 150 and 2000 km. Running time: Approximately two seconds to parameterize a full orbit with 1000 points.

[A dynamic model of the extravehicular (correction of extravehicuar) activity space suit].

PubMed

Yang, Feng; Yuan, Xiu-gan

2002-12-01

Objective. To establish a dynamic model of the space suit base on the particular configuration of the space suit. Method. The mass of the space suit components, moment of inertia, mobility of the joints of space suit, as well as the suit-generated torques, were considered in this model. The expressions to calculate the moment of inertia were developed by simplifying the geometry of the space suit. A modified Preisach model was used to mathematically describe the hysteretic torque characteristics of joints in a pressurized space suit, and it was implemented numerically basing on the observed suit parameters. Result. A dynamic model considering mass, moment of inertia and suit-generated torques was established. Conclusion. This dynamic model provides some elements for the dynamic simulation of the astronaut extravehicular activity.

Latent resonance in tidal rivers, with applications to River Elbe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Backhaus, Jan O.

2015-11-01

We describe a systematic investigation of resonance in tidal rivers, and of river oscillations influenced by resonance. That is, we explore the grey-zone between absent and fully developed resonance. Data from this study are the results of a one-dimensional numerical channel model applied to a four-dimensional parameter space comprising geometry, i.e. length and depths of rivers, and varying dissipation and forcing. Similarity of real rivers and channels from parameter space is obtained with the help of a 'run-time depth'. We present a model-channel, which reproduces tidal oscillations of River Elbe in Hamburg, Germany with accuracy of a few centimetres. The parameter space contains resonant regions and regions with 'latent resonance'. The latter defines tidal oscillations that are elevated yet not in full but juvenile resonance. Dissipation reduces amplitudes of resonance while creating latent resonance. That is, energy of resonance radiates into areas in parameter space where periods of Eigen-oscillations are well separated from the period of the forcing tide. Increased forcing enhances the re-distribution of resonance in parameter space. The River Elbe is diagnosed as being in a state of anthropogenic latent resonance as a consequence of ongoing deepening by dredging. Deepening the river, in conjunction with the expected sea level rise, will inevitably cause increasing tidal ranges. As a rule of thumb, we found that 1 m deepening would cause 0.5 m increase in tidal range.

Bayesian model comparison and parameter inference in systems biology using nested sampling.

PubMed

Pullen, Nick; Morris, Richard J

2014-01-01

Inferring parameters for models of biological processes is a current challenge in systems biology, as is the related problem of comparing competing models that explain the data. In this work we apply Skilling's nested sampling to address both of these problems. Nested sampling is a Bayesian method for exploring parameter space that transforms a multi-dimensional integral to a 1D integration over likelihood space. This approach focuses on the computation of the marginal likelihood or evidence. The ratio of evidences of different models leads to the Bayes factor, which can be used for model comparison. We demonstrate how nested sampling can be used to reverse-engineer a system's behaviour whilst accounting for the uncertainty in the results. The effect of missing initial conditions of the variables as well as unknown parameters is investigated. We show how the evidence and the model ranking can change as a function of the available data. Furthermore, the addition of data from extra variables of the system can deliver more information for model comparison than increasing the data from one variable, thus providing a basis for experimental design.

Identifying parameter regions for multistationarity

PubMed Central

Conradi, Carsten; Mincheva, Maya; Wiuf, Carsten

2017-01-01

Mathematical modelling has become an established tool for studying the dynamics of biological systems. Current applications range from building models that reproduce quantitative data to identifying systems with predefined qualitative features, such as switching behaviour, bistability or oscillations. Mathematically, the latter question amounts to identifying parameter values associated with a given qualitative feature. We introduce a procedure to partition the parameter space of a parameterized system of ordinary differential equations into regions for which the system has a unique or multiple equilibria. The procedure is based on the computation of the Brouwer degree, and it creates a multivariate polynomial with parameter depending coefficients. The signs of the coefficients determine parameter regions with and without multistationarity. A particular strength of the procedure is the avoidance of numerical analysis and parameter sampling. The procedure consists of a number of steps. Each of these steps might be addressed algorithmically using various computer programs and available software, or manually. We demonstrate our procedure on several models of gene transcription and cell signalling, and show that in many cases we obtain a complete partitioning of the parameter space with respect to multistationarity. PMID:28972969

Improving parallel I/O autotuning with performance modeling

DOE PAGES

Behzad, Babak; Byna, Surendra; Wild, Stefan M.; ...

2014-01-01

Various layers of the parallel I/O subsystem offer tunable parameters for improving I/O performance on large-scale computers. However, searching through a large parameter space is challenging. We are working towards an autotuning framework for determining the parallel I/O parameters that can achieve good I/O performance for different data write patterns. In this paper, we characterize parallel I/O and discuss the development of predictive models for use in effectively reducing the parameter space. Furthermore, applying our technique on tuning an I/O kernel derived from a large-scale simulation code shows that the search time can be reduced from 12 hours to 2more » hours, while achieving 54X I/O performance speedup.« less

Exploratory Model Analysis of the Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) Low Global Scheduler Problem

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-12-01

solution. The non- linear least squares model is defined as Y = f{e,t) where: 0 =M-element parameter vector Y =N-element vector of all data t...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS EXPLORATORY MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE SPACE BASED INFRARED SYSTEM (SBIRS) LOW GLOBAL SCHEDULER...December 1999 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE EXPLORATORY MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE SPACE BASED INFRARED SYSTEM

Illustration of microphysical processes in Amazonian deep convective clouds in the gamma phase space: introduction and potential applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cecchini, Micael A.; Machado, Luiz A. T.; Wendisch, Manfred; Costa, Anja; Krämer, Martina; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Afchine, Armin; Albrecht, Rachel I.; Artaxo, Paulo; Borrmann, Stephan; Fütterer, Daniel; Klimach, Thomas; Mahnke, Christoph; Martin, Scot T.; Minikin, Andreas; Molleker, Sergej; Pardo, Lianet H.; Pöhlker, Christopher; Pöhlker, Mira L.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Weinzierl, Bernadett

2017-12-01

The behavior of tropical clouds remains a major open scientific question, resulting in poor representation by models. One challenge is to realistically reproduce cloud droplet size distributions (DSDs) and their evolution over time and space. Many applications, not limited to models, use the gamma function to represent DSDs. However, even though the statistical characteristics of the gamma parameters have been widely studied, there is almost no study dedicated to understanding the phase space of this function and the associated physics. This phase space can be defined by the three parameters that define the DSD intercept, shape, and curvature. Gamma phase space may provide a common framework for parameterizations and intercomparisons. Here, we introduce the phase space approach and its characteristics, focusing on warm-phase microphysical cloud properties and the transition to the mixed-phase layer. We show that trajectories in this phase space can represent DSD evolution and can be related to growth processes. Condensational and collisional growth may be interpreted as pseudo-forces that induce displacements in opposite directions within the phase space. The actually observed movements in the phase space are a result of the combination of such pseudo-forces. Additionally, aerosol effects can be evaluated given their significant impact on DSDs. The DSDs associated with liquid droplets that favor cloud glaciation can be delimited in the phase space, which can help models to adequately predict the transition to the mixed phase. We also consider possible ways to constrain the DSD in two-moment bulk microphysics schemes, in which the relative dispersion parameter of the DSD can play a significant role. Overall, the gamma phase space approach can be an invaluable tool for studying cloud microphysical evolution and can be readily applied in many scenarios that rely on gamma DSDs.

Numerical modeling of space-time wave extremes using WAVEWATCH III

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbariol, Francesco; Alves, Jose-Henrique G. M.; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bergamasco, Filippo; Bertotti, Luciana; Carniel, Sandro; Cavaleri, Luigi; Y. Chao, Yung; Chawla, Arun; Ricchi, Antonio; Sclavo, Mauro; Tolman, Hendrik

2017-04-01

A novel implementation of parameters estimating the space-time wave extremes within the spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III (WW3) is presented. The new output parameters, available in WW3 version 5.16, rely on the theoretical model of Fedele (J Phys Oceanogr 42(9):1601-1615, 2012) extended by Benetazzo et al. (J Phys Oceanogr 45(9):2261-2275, 2015) to estimate the maximum second-order nonlinear crest height over a given space-time region. In order to assess the wave height associated to the maximum crest height and the maximum wave height (generally different in a broad-band stormy sea state), the linear quasi-determinism theory of Boccotti (2000) is considered. The new WW3 implementation is tested by simulating sea states and space-time extremes over the Mediterranean Sea (forced by the wind fields produced by the COSMO-ME atmospheric model). Model simulations are compared to space-time wave maxima observed on March 10th, 2014, in the northern Adriatic Sea (Italy), by a stereo camera system installed on-board the "Acqua Alta" oceanographic tower. Results show that modeled space-time extremes are in general agreement with observations. Differences are mostly ascribed to the accuracy of the wind forcing and, to a lesser extent, to the approximations introduced in the space-time extremes parameterizations. Model estimates are expected to be even more accurate over areas larger than the mean wavelength (for instance, the model grid size).

Can we use the equivalent sphere model to approximate organ doses in space radiation environments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zi-Wei

For space radiation protection one often calculates the dose or dose equivalent in blood forming organs (BFO). It has been customary to use a 5cm equivalent sphere to approximate the BFO dose. However, previous studies have concluded that a 5cm sphere gives a very different dose from the exact BFO dose. One study concludes that a 9cm sphere is a reasonable approximation for the BFO dose in solar particle event (SPE) environments. In this study we investigate the reason behind these observations and extend earlier studies by studying whether BFO, eyes or the skin can be approximated by the equivalent sphere model in different space radiation environments such as solar particle events and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environments. We take the thickness distribution functions of the organs from the CAM (Computerized Anatomical Man) model, then use a deterministic radiation transport to calculate organ doses in different space radiation environments. The organ doses have been evaluated with a water or aluminum shielding from 0 to 20 g/cm2. We then compare these exact doses with results from the equivalent sphere model and determine in which cases and at what radius parameters the equivalent sphere model is a reasonable approximation. Furthermore, we propose to use a modified equivalent sphere model with two radius parameters to represent the skin or eyes. For solar particle events, we find that the radius parameters for the organ dose equivalent increase significantly with the shielding thickness, and the model works marginally for BFO but is unacceptable for eyes or the skin. For galactic cosmic rays environments, the equivalent sphere model with one organ-specific radius parameter works well for the BFO dose equivalent, marginally well for the BFO dose and the dose equivalent of eyes or the skin, but is unacceptable for the dose of eyes or the skin. The BFO radius parameters are found to be significantly larger than 5 cm in all cases, consistent with the conclusion of an earlier study. The radius parameters for the dose equivalent in GCR environments are approximately between 10 and 11 cm for the BFO, 3.7 to 4.8 cm for eyes, and 3.5 to 5.6 cm for the skin; while the radius parameters are between 10 and 13 cm for the BFO dose. In the proposed modified equivalent sphere model, the range of each of the two radius parameters for the skin (or eyes) is much tighter than that in the equivalent sphere model with one radius parameter. Our results thus show that the equivalent sphere model works better in galactic cosmic rays environments than in solar particle events. The model works well or marginally well for BFO but usually does not work for eyes or the skin. A modified model with two radius parameters works much better in approximating the dose and dose equivalent in eyes or the skin.

Modelling of Cosmic Molecular Masers: Introduction to a Computation Cookbook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobolev, Andrej M.; Gray, Malcolm D.

2012-07-01

Numerical modeling of molecular masers is necessary in order to understand their nature and diagnostic capabilities. Model construction requires elaboration of a basic description which allows computation, that is a definition of the parameter space and basic physical relations. Usually, this requires additional thorough studies that can consist of the following stages/parts: relevant molecular spectroscopy and collisional rate coefficients; conditions in and around the masing region (that part of space where population inversion is realized); geometry and size of the masing region (including the question of whether maser spots are discrete clumps or line-of-sight correlations in a much bigger region) and propagation of maser radiation. Output of the maser computer modeling can have the following forms: exploration of parameter space (where do inversions appear in particular maser transitions and their combinations, which parameter values describe a `typical' source, and so on); modeling of individual sources (line flux ratios, spectra, images and their variability); analysis of the pumping mechanism; predictions (new maser transitions, correlations in variability of different maser transitions, and the like). Described schemes (constituents and hierarchy) of the model input and output are based mainly on the experience of the authors and make no claim to be dogmatic.

Rapid Computation of Thermodynamic Properties over Multidimensional Nonbonded Parameter Spaces Using Adaptive Multistate Reweighting.

PubMed

Naden, Levi N; Shirts, Michael R

2016-04-12

We show how thermodynamic properties of molecular models can be computed over a large, multidimensional parameter space by combining multistate reweighting analysis with a linear basis function approach. This approach reduces the computational cost to estimate thermodynamic properties from molecular simulations for over 130,000 tested parameter combinations from over 1000 CPU years to tens of CPU days. This speed increase is achieved primarily by computing the potential energy as a linear combination of basis functions, computed from either modified simulation code or as the difference of energy between two reference states, which can be done without any simulation code modification. The thermodynamic properties are then estimated with the Multistate Bennett Acceptance Ratio (MBAR) as a function of multiple model parameters without the need to define a priori how the states are connected by a pathway. Instead, we adaptively sample a set of points in parameter space to create mutual configuration space overlap. The existence of regions of poor configuration space overlap are detected by analyzing the eigenvalues of the sampled states' overlap matrix. The configuration space overlap to sampled states is monitored alongside the mean and maximum uncertainty to determine convergence, as neither the uncertainty or the configuration space overlap alone is a sufficient metric of convergence. This adaptive sampling scheme is demonstrated by estimating with high precision the solvation free energies of charged particles of Lennard-Jones plus Coulomb functional form with charges between -2 and +2 and generally physical values of σij and ϵij in TIP3P water. We also compute entropy, enthalpy, and radial distribution functions of arbitrary unsampled parameter combinations using only the data from these sampled states and use the estimates of free energies over the entire space to examine the deviation of atomistic simulations from the Born approximation to the solvation free energy.

An optimal beam alignment method for large-scale distributed space surveillance radar system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jian; Wang, Dongya; Xia, Shuangzhi

2018-06-01

Large-scale distributed space surveillance radar is a very important ground-based equipment to maintain a complete catalogue for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space debris. However, due to the thousands of kilometers distance between each sites of the distributed radar system, how to optimally implement the Transmitting/Receiving (T/R) beams alignment in a great space using the narrow beam, which proposed a special and considerable technical challenge in the space surveillance area. According to the common coordinate transformation model and the radar beam space model, we presented a two dimensional projection algorithm for T/R beam using the direction angles, which could visually describe and assess the beam alignment performance. Subsequently, the optimal mathematical models for the orientation angle of the antenna array, the site location and the T/R beam coverage are constructed, and also the beam alignment parameters are precisely solved. At last, we conducted the optimal beam alignment experiments base on the site parameters of Air Force Space Surveillance System (AFSSS). The simulation results demonstrate the correctness and effectiveness of our novel method, which can significantly stimulate the construction for the LEO space debris surveillance equipment.

Basic research for the geodynamics program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

The mathematical models of space very long base interferometry (VLBI) observables suitable for least squares covariance analysis were derived and estimatability problems inherent in the space VLBI system were explored, including a detailed rank defect analysis and sensitivity analysis. An important aim is to carry out a comparative analysis of the mathematical models of the ground-based VLBI and space VLBI observables in order to describe the background in detail. Computer programs were developed in order to check the relations, assess errors, and analyze sensitivity. In order to investigate the estimatability of different geodetic and geodynamic parameters from the space VLBI observables, the mathematical models for time delay and time delay rate observables of space VLBI were analytically derived along with the partial derivatives with respect to the parameters. Rank defect analysis was carried out both by analytical and numerical testing of linear dependencies between the columns of the normal matrix thus formed. Definite conclusions were formed about the rank defects in the system.

Hybrid Reduced Order Modeling Algorithms for Reactor Physics Calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bang, Youngsuk

Reduced order modeling (ROM) has been recognized as an indispensable approach when the engineering analysis requires many executions of high fidelity simulation codes. Examples of such engineering analyses in nuclear reactor core calculations, representing the focus of this dissertation, include the functionalization of the homogenized few-group cross-sections in terms of the various core conditions, e.g. burn-up, fuel enrichment, temperature, etc. This is done via assembly calculations which are executed many times to generate the required functionalization for use in the downstream core calculations. Other examples are sensitivity analysis used to determine important core attribute variations due to input parameter variations, and uncertainty quantification employed to estimate core attribute uncertainties originating from input parameter uncertainties. ROM constructs a surrogate model with quantifiable accuracy which can replace the original code for subsequent engineering analysis calculations. This is achieved by reducing the effective dimensionality of the input parameter, the state variable, or the output response spaces, by projection onto the so-called active subspaces. Confining the variations to the active subspace allows one to construct an ROM model of reduced complexity which can be solved more efficiently. This dissertation introduces a new algorithm to render reduction with the reduction errors bounded based on a user-defined error tolerance which represents the main challenge of existing ROM techniques. Bounding the error is the key to ensuring that the constructed ROM models are robust for all possible applications. Providing such error bounds represents one of the algorithmic contributions of this dissertation to the ROM state-of-the-art. Recognizing that ROM techniques have been developed to render reduction at different levels, e.g. the input parameter space, the state space, and the response space, this dissertation offers a set of novel hybrid ROM algorithms which can be readily integrated into existing methods and offer higher computational efficiency and defendable accuracy of the reduced models. For example, the snapshots ROM algorithm is hybridized with the range finding algorithm to render reduction in the state space, e.g. the flux in reactor calculations. In another implementation, the perturbation theory used to calculate first order derivatives of responses with respect to parameters is hybridized with a forward sensitivity analysis approach to render reduction in the parameter space. Reduction at the state and parameter spaces can be combined to render further reduction at the interface between different physics codes in a multi-physics model with the accuracy quantified in a similar manner to the single physics case. Although the proposed algorithms are generic in nature, we focus here on radiation transport models used in support of the design and analysis of nuclear reactor cores. In particular, we focus on replacing the traditional assembly calculations by ROM models to facilitate the generation of homogenized cross-sections for downstream core calculations. The implication is that assembly calculations could be done instantaneously therefore precluding the need for the expensive evaluation of the few-group cross-sections for all possible core conditions. Given the generic natures of the algorithms, we make an effort to introduce the material in a general form to allow non-nuclear engineers to benefit from this work.

Design Space Toolbox V2: Automated Software Enabling a Novel Phenotype-Centric Modeling Strategy for Natural and Synthetic Biological Systems

PubMed Central

Lomnitz, Jason G.; Savageau, Michael A.

2016-01-01

Mathematical models of biochemical systems provide a means to elucidate the link between the genotype, environment, and phenotype. A subclass of mathematical models, known as mechanistic models, quantitatively describe the complex non-linear mechanisms that capture the intricate interactions between biochemical components. However, the study of mechanistic models is challenging because most are analytically intractable and involve large numbers of system parameters. Conventional methods to analyze them rely on local analyses about a nominal parameter set and they do not reveal the vast majority of potential phenotypes possible for a given system design. We have recently developed a new modeling approach that does not require estimated values for the parameters initially and inverts the typical steps of the conventional modeling strategy. Instead, this approach relies on architectural features of the model to identify the phenotypic repertoire and then predict values for the parameters that yield specific instances of the system that realize desired phenotypic characteristics. Here, we present a collection of software tools, the Design Space Toolbox V2 based on the System Design Space method, that automates (1) enumeration of the repertoire of model phenotypes, (2) prediction of values for the parameters for any model phenotype, and (3) analysis of model phenotypes through analytical and numerical methods. The result is an enabling technology that facilitates this radically new, phenotype-centric, modeling approach. We illustrate the power of these new tools by applying them to a synthetic gene circuit that can exhibit multi-stability. We then predict values for the system parameters such that the design exhibits 2, 3, and 4 stable steady states. In one example, inspection of the basins of attraction reveals that the circuit can count between three stable states by transient stimulation through one of two input channels: a positive channel that increases the count, and a negative channel that decreases the count. This example shows the power of these new automated methods to rapidly identify behaviors of interest and efficiently predict parameter values for their realization. These tools may be applied to understand complex natural circuitry and to aid in the rational design of synthetic circuits. PMID:27462346

Learning Maximal Entropy Models from finite size datasets: a fast Data-Driven algorithm allows to sample from the posterior distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrari, Ulisse

A maximal entropy model provides the least constrained probability distribution that reproduces experimental averages of an observables set. In this work we characterize the learning dynamics that maximizes the log-likelihood in the case of large but finite datasets. We first show how the steepest descent dynamics is not optimal as it is slowed down by the inhomogeneous curvature of the model parameters space. We then provide a way for rectifying this space which relies only on dataset properties and does not require large computational efforts. We conclude by solving the long-time limit of the parameters dynamics including the randomness generated by the systematic use of Gibbs sampling. In this stochastic framework, rather than converging to a fixed point, the dynamics reaches a stationary distribution, which for the rectified dynamics reproduces the posterior distribution of the parameters. We sum up all these insights in a ``rectified'' Data-Driven algorithm that is fast and by sampling from the parameters posterior avoids both under- and over-fitting along all the directions of the parameters space. Through the learning of pairwise Ising models from the recording of a large population of retina neurons, we show how our algorithm outperforms the steepest descent method. This research was supported by a Grant from the Human Brain Project (HBP CLAP).

Harnessing Orbital Debris to Sense the Space Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutschler, S.; Axelrad, P.; Matsuo, T.

A key requirement for accurate space situational awareness (SSA) is knowledge of the non-conservative forces that act on space objects. These effects vary temporally and spatially, driven by the dynamical behavior of space weather. Existing SSA algorithms adjust space weather models based on observations of calibration satellites. However, lack of sufficient data and mismodeling of non-conservative forces cause inaccuracies in space object motion prediction. The uncontrolled nature of debris makes it particularly sensitive to the variations in space weather. Our research takes advantage of this behavior by inverting observations of debris objects to infer the space environment parameters causing their motion. In addition, this research will produce more accurate predictions of the motion of debris objects. The hypothesis of this research is that it is possible to utilize a "cluster" of debris objects, objects within relatively close proximity of each other, to sense their local environment. We focus on deriving parameters of an atmospheric density model to more precisely predict the drag force on LEO objects. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used for assimilation; the prior ensemble to the posterior ensemble is transformed during the measurement update in a manner that does not require inversion of large matrices. A prior ensemble is utilized to empirically determine the nonlinear relationship between measurements and density parameters. The filter estimates an extended state that includes position and velocity of the debris object, and atmospheric density parameters. The density is parameterized as a grid of values, distributed by latitude and local sidereal time over a spherical shell encompassing Earth. This research focuses on LEO object motion, but it can also be extended to additional orbital regimes for observation and refinement of magnetic field and solar radiation models. An observability analysis of the proposed approach is presented in terms of the measurement cadence necessary to estimate the local space environment.

A generalized analysis of solar space heating in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, J. A.

A life-cycle model is developed for solar space heating within the United States that is based on the solar design data from the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory. The model consists of an analytical relationship among five dimensionless parameters that include all pertinent technical, climatological, solar, operating and economic factors that influence the performance of a Solar Space Heating System. An important optimum condition presented is the 'Breakeven' metered cost of conventional fuel at which the cost of the solar system is equal to that of a conventional heating system. The effect of Federal (1980) and State (1979) income tax credits on these costs is determined. A parameter that includes both solar availability and solar system utilization is derived and plotted on a map of the U.S. This parameter shows the most favorable present locations for solar space heating application to be in the Central and Mountain States. The data employed are related to the rehabilitated solar data recently made available by the National Climatic Center (SOLMET).

Models of H II regions - Heavy element opacity, variation of temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubin, R. H.

1985-01-01

A detailed set of H II region models that use the same physics and self-consistent input have been computed and are used to examine where in parameter space the effects of heavy element opacity is important. The models are briefly described, and tabular data for the input parameters and resulting properties of the models are presented. It is found that the opacities of C, Ne, O, and to a lesser extent N play a vital role over a large region of parameter space, while S and Ar opacities are negligible. The variation of the average electron temperature T(e) of the models with metal abundance, density, and T(eff) is investigated. It is concluded that by far the most important determinator of T(e) is metal abundance; an almost 7000 K difference is expected over the factor of 10 change from up to down abundances.

Utilization of Expert Knowledge in a Multi-Objective Hydrologic Model Automatic Calibration Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quebbeman, J.; Park, G. H.; Carney, S.; Day, G. N.; Micheletty, P. D.

2016-12-01

Spatially distributed continuous simulation hydrologic models have a large number of parameters for potential adjustment during the calibration process. Traditional manual calibration approaches of such a modeling system is extremely laborious, which has historically motivated the use of automatic calibration procedures. With a large selection of model parameters, achieving high degrees of objective space fitness - measured with typical metrics such as Nash-Sutcliffe, Kling-Gupta, RMSE, etc. - can easily be achieved using a range of evolutionary algorithms. A concern with this approach is the high degree of compensatory calibration, with many similarly performing solutions, and yet grossly varying parameter set solutions. To help alleviate this concern, and mimic manual calibration processes, expert knowledge is proposed for inclusion within the multi-objective functions, which evaluates the parameter decision space. As a result, Pareto solutions are identified with high degrees of fitness, but also create parameter sets that maintain and utilize available expert knowledge resulting in more realistic and consistent solutions. This process was tested using the joint SNOW-17 and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting method (SAC-SMA) within the Animas River basin in Colorado. Three different elevation zones, each with a range of parameters, resulted in over 35 model parameters simultaneously calibrated. As a result, high degrees of fitness were achieved, in addition to the development of more realistic and consistent parameter sets such as those typically achieved during manual calibration procedures.

Critical space-time networks and geometric phase transitions from frustrated edge antiferromagnetism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugenberger, Carlo A.

2015-12-01

Recently I proposed a simple dynamical network model for discrete space-time that self-organizes as a graph with Hausdorff dimension dH=4 . The model has a geometric quantum phase transition with disorder parameter (dH-ds) , where ds is the spectral dimension of the dynamical graph. Self-organization in this network model is based on a competition between a ferromagnetic Ising model for vertices and an antiferromagnetic Ising model for edges. In this paper I solve a toy version of this model defined on a bipartite graph in the mean-field approximation. I show that the geometric phase transition corresponds exactly to the antiferromagnetic transition for edges, the dimensional disorder parameter of the former being mapped to the staggered magnetization order parameter of the latter. The model has a critical point with long-range correlations between edges, where a continuum random geometry can be defined, exactly as in Kazakov's famed 2D random lattice Ising model but now in any number of dimensions.

Variable soft X-ray excesses in active galactic nuclei from nonthermal electron-positron pair cascades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zdziarski, Andrzej A.; Coppi, Paolo S.

1991-01-01

In the present study of the formation of steep soft X-ray excesses that are superposed on flatter, hard X-ray power-law spectra in nonthermal electron-positron pair cascade sources, the soft excess in pair-cascade AGN models appears as a steep power law superposed on the tail of the UV bump and the flat nonthermal (hard X-ray) power law. The model-parameter space in which an excess in soft X-rays is visible is ascertained, and the time-variability of soft excesses in pair cascade models is examined. It is established that the parameter space in which soft excesses appear encompasses the range of preferred input parameters for a recently development Compton reflection model of UV and X-ray emission from the central engine of an AGN.

The structure and dynamics of tornado-like vortices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nolan, D.S.; Farrell, B.F.

The structure and dynamics of axisymmetric tornado-like vortices are explored with a numerical model of axisymmetric incompressible flow based on recently developed numerical methods. The model is first shown to compare favorably with previous results and is then used to study the effects of varying the major parameters controlling the vortex: the strength of the convective forcing, the strength of the rotational forcing, and the magnitude of the model eddy viscosity. Dimensional analysis of the model problem indicates that the results must depend on only two dimensionless parameters. The natural choices for these two parameters are a convective Reynolds numbermore » (based on the velocity scale associated with the convective forcing) and a parameter analogous to the swirl ratio in laboratory models. However, by examining sets of simulations with different model parameters it is found that a dimensionless parameter known as the vortex Reynolds number, which is the ratio of the far-field circulation to the eddy viscosity, is more effective than the convention swirl ratio for predicting the structure of the vortex. The parameter space defined by the choices for model parameters is further explored with large sets of numerical simulations. For much of this parameter space it is confirmed that the vortex structure and time-dependent behavior depend strongly on the vortex Reynolds number and only weakly on the convective Reynolds number. The authors also find that for higher convective Reynolds numbers, the maximum possible wind speed increases, and the rotational forcing necessary to achieve that wind speed decreases. Physical reasoning is used to explain this behavior, and implications for tornado dynamics are discussed.« less

Electroweak baryogenesis in two Higgs doublet models and B meson anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cline, James M.; Kainulainen, Kimmo; Trott, Michael

2011-11-01

Motivated by 3.9 σ evidence of a CP-violating phase beyond the standard model in the like-sign dimuon asymmetry reported by D∅, we examine the potential for two Higgs doublet models (2HDMs) to achieve successful electroweak baryogenesis (EWBG) while explaining the dimuon anomaly. Our emphasis is on the minimal flavour violating 2HDM, but our numerical scans of model parameter space include type I and type II models as special cases. We incorporate relevant particle physics constraints, including electroweak precision data, b → sγ, the neutron electric dipole moment, R b , and perturbative coupling bounds to constrain the model. Surprisingly, we find that a large enough baryon asymmetry is only consistently achieved in a small subset of parameter space in 2HDMs, regardless of trying to simultaneously account for any B physics anomaly. There is some tension between simultaneous explanation of the dimuon anomaly and baryogenesis, but using a Markov chain Monte Carlo we find several models within 1 σ of the central values. We point out shortcomings with previous studies that reached different conclusions. The restricted parameter space that allows for EWBG makes this scenario highly predictive for collider searches. We discuss the most promising signatures to pursue at the LHC for EWBG-compatible models.

Extending the modeling of the anisotropic galaxy power spectrum to k = 0.4 hMpc-1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Nick; Seljak, Uroš; Beutler, Florian; Vlah, Zvonimir

2017-10-01

We present a model for the redshift-space power spectrum of galaxies and demonstrate its accuracy in describing the monopole, quadrupole, and hexadecapole of the galaxy density field down to scales of k = 0.4 hMpc-1. The model describes the clustering of galaxies in the context of a halo model and the clustering of the underlying halos in redshift space using a combination of Eulerian perturbation theory and N-body simulations. The modeling of redshift-space distortions is done using the so-called distribution function approach. The final model has 13 free parameters, and each parameter is physically motivated rather than a nuisance parameter, which allows the use of well-motivated priors. We account for the Finger-of-God effect from centrals and both isolated and non-isolated satellites rather than using a single velocity dispersion to describe the combined effect. We test and validate the accuracy of the model on several sets of high-fidelity N-body simulations, as well as realistic mock catalogs designed to simulate the BOSS DR12 CMASS data set. The suite of simulations covers a range of cosmologies and galaxy bias models, providing a rigorous test of the level of theoretical systematics present in the model. The level of bias in the recovered values of f σ8 is found to be small. When including scales to k = 0.4 hMpc-1, we find 15-30% gains in the statistical precision of f σ8 relative to k = 0.2 hMpc-1 and a roughly 10-15% improvement for the perpendicular Alcock-Paczynski parameter α⊥. Using the BOSS DR12 CMASS mocks as a benchmark for comparison, we estimate an uncertainty on f σ8 that is ~10-20% larger than other similar Fourier-space RSD models in the literature that use k <= 0.2 hMpc-1, suggesting that these models likely have a too-limited parametrization.

Post-LHC7 fine-tuning in the minimal supergravity/CMSSM model with a 125 GeV Higgs boson

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baer, Howard; Barger, Vernon; Huang, Peisi; Mickelson, Dan; Mustafayev, Azar; Tata, Xerxes

2013-02-01

The recent discovery of a 125 GeV Higgs-like resonance at LHC, coupled with the lack of evidence for weak scale supersymmetry (SUSY), has severely constrained SUSY models such as minimal supergravity (mSUGRA)/CMSSM. As LHC probes deeper into SUSY model parameter space, the little hierarchy problem—how to reconcile the Z and Higgs boson mass scale with the scale of SUSY breaking—will become increasingly exacerbated unless a sparticle signal is found. We evaluate two different measures of fine-tuning in the mSUGRA/CMSSM model. The more stringent of these, ΔHS, includes effects that arise from the high-scale origin of the mSUGRA parameters while the second measure, ΔEW, is determined only by weak scale parameters: hence, it is universal to any model with the same particle spectrum and couplings. Our results incorporate the latest constraints from LHC7 sparticle searches, LHCb limits from Bs→μ+μ- and also require a light Higgs scalar with mh˜123-127GeV. We present fine-tuning contours in the m0 vs m1/2 plane for several sets of A0 and tan⁡β values. We also present results for ΔHS and ΔEW from a scan over the entire viable model parameter space. We find a ΔHS≳103, or at best 0.1%, fine-tuning. For the less stringent electroweak fine-tuning, we find ΔEW≳102, or at best 1%, fine-tuning. Two benchmark points are presented that have the lowest values of ΔHS and ΔEW. Our results provide a quantitative measure for ascertaining whether or not the remaining mSUGRA/CMSSM model parameter space is excessively fine-tuned and so could provide impetus for considering alternative SUSY models.

Using state-space models to predict the abundance of juvenile and adult sea lice on Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Elghafghuf, Adel; Vanderstichel, Raphael; St-Hilaire, Sophie; Stryhn, Henrik

2018-04-11

Sea lice are marine parasites affecting salmon farms, and are considered one of the most costly pests of the salmon aquaculture industry. Infestations of sea lice on farms significantly increase opportunities for the parasite to spread in the surrounding ecosystem, making control of this pest a challenging issue for salmon producers. The complexity of controlling sea lice on salmon farms requires frequent monitoring of the abundance of different sea lice stages over time. Industry-based data sets of counts of lice are amenable to multivariate time-series data analyses. In this study, two sets of multivariate autoregressive state-space models were applied to Chilean sea lice data from six Atlantic salmon production cycles on five isolated farms (at least 20 km seaway distance away from other known active farms), to evaluate the utility of these models for predicting sea lice abundance over time on farms. The models were constructed with different parameter configurations, and the analysis demonstrated large heterogeneity between production cycles for the autoregressive parameter, the effects of chemotherapeutant bath treatments, and the process-error variance. A model allowing for different parameters across production cycles had the best fit and the smallest overall prediction errors. However, pooling information across cycles for the drift and observation error parameters did not substantially affect model performance, thus reducing the number of necessary parameters in the model. Bath treatments had strong but variable effects for reducing sea lice burdens, and these effects were stronger for adult lice than juvenile lice. Our multivariate state-space models were able to handle different sea lice stages and provide predictions for sea lice abundance with reasonable accuracy up to five weeks out. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu; Li, Zhen

2017-02-01

We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the priormore » knowledge that the coefficients are “sparse”. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.« less

Using Space Syntax to Assess Safety in Public Areas - Case Study of Tarbiat Pedestrian Area, Tabriz-Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cihangir Çamur, Kübra; Roshani, Mehdi; Pirouzi, Sania

2017-10-01

In studying the urban complex issues, simulation and modelling of public space use considerably helps in determining and measuring factors such as urban safety. Depth map software for determining parameters of the spatial layout techniques; and Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software for analysing and evaluating the views of the pedestrians on public safety were used in this study. Connectivity, integration, and depth of the area in the Tarbiat city blocks were measured using the Space Syntax Method, and these parameters are presented as graphical and mathematical data. The combination of the results obtained from the questionnaire and statistical analysis with the results of spatial arrangement technique represents the appropriate and inappropriate spaces for pedestrians. This method provides a useful and effective instrument for decision makers, planners, urban designers and programmers in order to evaluate public spaces in the city. Prior to physical modification of urban public spaces, space syntax simulates the pedestrian safety to be used as an analytical tool by the city management. Finally, regarding the modelled parameters and identification of different characteristics of the case, this study represents the strategies and policies in order to increase the safety of the pedestrians of Tarbiat in Tabriz.

Emulating Simulations of Cosmic Dawn for 21 cm Power Spectrum Constraints on Cosmology, Reionization, and X-Ray Heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kern, Nicholas S.; Liu, Adrian; Parsons, Aaron R.; Mesinger, Andrei; Greig, Bradley

2017-10-01

Current and upcoming radio interferometric experiments are aiming to make a statistical characterization of the high-redshift 21 cm fluctuation signal spanning the hydrogen reionization and X-ray heating epochs of the universe. However, connecting 21 cm statistics to the underlying physical parameters is complicated by the theoretical challenge of modeling the relevant physics at computational speeds quick enough to enable exploration of the high-dimensional and weakly constrained parameter space. In this work, we use machine learning algorithms to build a fast emulator that can accurately mimic an expensive simulation of the 21 cm signal across a wide parameter space. We embed our emulator within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework in order to perform Bayesian parameter constraints over a large number of model parameters, including those that govern the Epoch of Reionization, the Epoch of X-ray Heating, and cosmology. As a worked example, we use our emulator to present an updated parameter constraint forecast for the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array experiment, showing that its characterization of a fiducial 21 cm power spectrum will considerably narrow the allowed parameter space of reionization and heating parameters, and could help strengthen Planck's constraints on {σ }8. We provide both our generalized emulator code and its implementation specifically for 21 cm parameter constraints as publicly available software.

TU-AB-BRC-05: Creation of a Monte Carlo TrueBeam Model by Reproducing Varian Phase Space Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O’Grady, K; Davis, S; Seuntjens, J

Purpose: To create a Varian TrueBeam 6 MV FFF Monte Carlo model using BEAMnrc/EGSnrc that accurately reproduces the Varian representative dataset, followed by tuning the model’s source parameters to accurately reproduce in-house measurements. Methods: A BEAMnrc TrueBeam model for 6 MV FFF has been created by modifying a validated 6 MV Varian CL21EX model. Geometric dimensions and materials were adjusted in a trial and error approach to match the fluence and spectra of TrueBeam phase spaces output by the Varian VirtuaLinac. Once the model’s phase space matched Varian’s counterpart using the default source parameters, it was validated to match 10more » × 10 cm{sup 2} Varian representative data obtained with the IBA CC13. The source parameters were then tuned to match in-house 5 × 5 cm{sup 2} PTW microDiamond measurements. All dose to water simulations included detector models to include the effects of volume averaging and the non-water equivalence of the chamber materials, allowing for more accurate source parameter selection. Results: The Varian phase space spectra and fluence were matched with excellent agreement. The in-house model’s PDD agreement with CC13 TrueBeam representative data was within 0.9% local percent difference beyond the first 3 mm. Profile agreement at 10 cm depth was within 0.9% local percent difference and 1.3 mm distance-to-agreement in the central axis and penumbra regions, respectively. Once the source parameters were tuned, PDD agreement with microDiamond measurements was within 0.9% local percent difference beyond 2 mm. The microDiamond profile agreement at 10 cm depth was within 0.6% local percent difference and 0.4 mm distance-to-agreement in the central axis and penumbra regions, respectively. Conclusion: An accurate in-house Monte Carlo model of the Varian TrueBeam was achieved independently of the Varian phase space solution and was tuned to in-house measurements. KO acknowledges partial support by the CREATE Medical Physics Research Training Network grant of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (Grant number: 432290).« less

Baryon acoustic oscillations in 2D: Modeling redshift-space power spectrum from perturbation theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taruya, Atsushi; Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8568; Nishimichi, Takahiro

2010-09-15

We present an improved prescription for the matter power spectrum in redshift space taking proper account of both nonlinear gravitational clustering and redshift distortion, which are of particular importance for accurately modeling baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs). Contrary to the models of redshift distortion phenomenologically introduced but frequently used in the literature, the new model includes the corrections arising from the nonlinear coupling between the density and velocity fields associated with two competitive effects of redshift distortion, i.e., Kaiser and Finger-of-God effects. Based on the improved treatment of perturbation theory for gravitational clustering, we compare our model predictions with the monopolemore » and quadrupole power spectra of N-body simulations, and an excellent agreement is achieved over the scales of BAOs. Potential impacts on constraining dark energy and modified gravity from the redshift-space power spectrum are also investigated based on the Fisher-matrix formalism, particularly focusing on the measurements of the Hubble parameter, angular diameter distance, and growth rate for structure formation. We find that the existing phenomenological models of redshift distortion produce a systematic error on measurements of the angular diameter distance and Hubble parameter by 1%-2%, and the growth-rate parameter by {approx}5%, which would become non-negligible for future galaxy surveys. Correctly modeling redshift distortion is thus essential, and the new prescription for the redshift-space power spectrum including the nonlinear corrections can be used as an accurate theoretical template for anisotropic BAOs.« less

Thermal modeling of a cryogenic turbopump for space shuttle applications.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knowles, P. J.

1971-01-01

Thermal modeling of a cryogenic pump and a hot-gas turbine in a turbopump assembly proposed for the Space Shuttle is described in this paper. A model, developed by identifying the heat-transfer regimes and incorporating their dependencies into a turbopump system model, included heat transfer for two-phase cryogen, hot-gas (200 R) impingement on turbine blades, gas impingement on rotating disks and parallel plate fluid flow. The ?thermal analyzer' program employed to develop this model was the TRW Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer (SINDA). This program uses finite differencing with lumped parameter representation for each node. Also discussed are model development, simulations of turbopump startup/shutdown operations, and the effects of varying turbopump parameters on the thermal performance.

EVA/ORU model architecture using RAMCOST

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ntuen, Celestine A.; Park, Eui H.; Wang, Y. M.; Bretoi, R.

1990-01-01

A parametrically driven simulation model is presented in order to provide a detailed insight into the effects of various input parameters in the life testing of a modular space suit. The RAMCOST model employed is a user-oriented simulation model for studying the life-cycle costs of designs under conditions of uncertainty. The results obtained from the EVA simulated model are used to assess various mission life testing parameters such as the number of joint motions per EVA cycle time, part availability, and number of inspection requirements. RAMCOST first simulates EVA completion for NASA application using a probabilistic like PERT network. With the mission time heuristically determined, RAMCOST then models different orbital replacement unit policies with special application to the astronaut's space suit functional designs.

Rapid performance modeling and parameter regression of geodynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, J.; Duplyakin, D.

2016-12-01

Geodynamic models run in a parallel environment have many parameters with complicated effects on performance and scientifically-relevant functionals. Manually choosing an efficient machine configuration and mapping out the parameter space requires a great deal of expert knowledge and time-consuming experiments. We propose an active learning technique based on Gaussion Process Regression to automatically select experiments to map out the performance landscape with respect to scientific and machine parameters. The resulting performance model is then used to select optimal experiments for improving the accuracy of a reduced order model per unit of computational cost. We present the framework and evaluate its quality and capability using popular lithospheric dynamics models.

Structural kinetic modeling of metabolic networks.

PubMed

Steuer, Ralf; Gross, Thilo; Selbig, Joachim; Blasius, Bernd

2006-08-08

To develop and investigate detailed mathematical models of metabolic processes is one of the primary challenges in systems biology. However, despite considerable advance in the topological analysis of metabolic networks, kinetic modeling is still often severely hampered by inadequate knowledge of the enzyme-kinetic rate laws and their associated parameter values. Here we propose a method that aims to give a quantitative account of the dynamical capabilities of a metabolic system, without requiring any explicit information about the functional form of the rate equations. Our approach is based on constructing a local linear model at each point in parameter space, such that each element of the model is either directly experimentally accessible or amenable to a straightforward biochemical interpretation. This ensemble of local linear models, encompassing all possible explicit kinetic models, then allows for a statistical exploration of the comprehensive parameter space. The method is exemplified on two paradigmatic metabolic systems: the glycolytic pathway of yeast and a realistic-scale representation of the photosynthetic Calvin cycle.

Identification of time-varying structural dynamic systems - An artificial intelligence approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glass, B. J.; Hanagud, S.

1992-01-01

An application of the artificial intelligence-derived methodologies of heuristic search and object-oriented programming to the problem of identifying the form of the model and the associated parameters of a time-varying structural dynamic system is presented in this paper. Possible model variations due to changes in boundary conditions or configurations of a structure are organized into a taxonomy of models, and a variant of best-first search is used to identify the model whose simulated response best matches that of the current physical structure. Simulated model responses are verified experimentally. An output-error approach is used in a discontinuous model space, and an equation-error approach is used in the parameter space. The advantages of the AI methods used, compared with conventional programming techniques for implementing knowledge structuring and inheritance, are discussed. Convergence conditions and example problems have been discussed. In the example problem, both the time-varying model and its new parameters have been identified when changes occur.

New non-linear model of groundwater recharge: Inclusion of memory, heterogeneity and visco-elasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spannenberg, Jescica; Atangana, Abdon; Vermeulen, P. D.

2017-09-01

Fractional differentiation has adequate use for investigating real world scenarios related to geological formations associated with elasticity, heterogeneity, viscoelasticity, and the memory effect. Since groundwater systems exist in these geological formations, modelling groundwater recharge as a real world scenario is a challenging task to do because existing recharge estimation methods are governed by linear equations which make use of constant field parameters. This is inadequate because in reality these parameters are a function of both space and time. This study therefore concentrates on modifying the recharge equation governing the EARTH model, by application of the Eton approach. Accordingly, this paper presents a modified equation which is non-linear, and accounts for parameters in a way that it is a function of both space and time. To be more specific, herein, recharge and drainage resistance which are parameters within the equation, became a function of both space and time. Additionally, the study entailed solving the non-linear equation using an iterative method as well as numerical solutions by means of the Crank-Nicolson scheme. The numerical solutions were used alongside the Riemann-Liouville, Caputo-Fabrizio, and Atangana-Baleanu derivatives, so that account was taken for elasticity, heterogeneity, viscoelasticity, and the memory effect. In essence, this paper presents a more adequate model for recharge estimation.

Test of the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder parametrization for rapid dark energy equation of state transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linden, Sebastian; Virey, Jean-Marc

2008-07-01

We test the robustness and flexibility of the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) parametrization of the dark energy equation of state w(z)=w0+wa(z)/(1+z) in recovering a four-parameter steplike fiducial model. We constrain the parameter space region of the underlying fiducial model where the CPL parametrization offers a reliable reconstruction. It turns out that non-negligible biases leak into the results for recent (z<2.5) rapid transitions, but that CPL yields a good reconstruction in all other cases. The presented analysis is performed with supernova Ia data as forecasted for a space mission like SNAP/JDEM, combined with future expectations for the cosmic microwave background shift parameter R and the baryonic acoustic oscillation parameter A.

State-space models’ dirty little secrets: even simple linear Gaussian models can have estimation problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auger-Méthé, Marie; Field, Chris; Albertsen, Christoffer M.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Lewis, Mark A.; Jonsen, Ian D.; Mills Flemming, Joanna

2016-05-01

State-space models (SSMs) are increasingly used in ecology to model time-series such as animal movement paths and population dynamics. This type of hierarchical model is often structured to account for two levels of variability: biological stochasticity and measurement error. SSMs are flexible. They can model linear and nonlinear processes using a variety of statistical distributions. Recent ecological SSMs are often complex, with a large number of parameters to estimate. Through a simulation study, we show that even simple linear Gaussian SSMs can suffer from parameter- and state-estimation problems. We demonstrate that these problems occur primarily when measurement error is larger than biological stochasticity, the condition that often drives ecologists to use SSMs. Using an animal movement example, we show how these estimation problems can affect ecological inference. Biased parameter estimates of a SSM describing the movement of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) result in overestimating their energy expenditure. We suggest potential solutions, but show that it often remains difficult to estimate parameters. While SSMs are powerful tools, they can give misleading results and we urge ecologists to assess whether the parameters can be estimated accurately before drawing ecological conclusions from their results.

An Initial Study of the Sensitivity of Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) Spacing Sensitivity to Weather and Configuration Input Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riddick, Stephen E.; Hinton, David A.

2000-01-01

A study has been performed on a computer code modeling an aircraft wake vortex spacing system during final approach. This code represents an initial engineering model of a system to calculate reduced approach separation criteria needed to increase airport productivity. This report evaluates model sensitivity toward various weather conditions (crosswind, crosswind variance, turbulent kinetic energy, and thermal gradient), code configurations (approach corridor option, and wake demise definition), and post-processing techniques (rounding of provided spacing values, and controller time variance).

Imitate or innovate: Competition of strategy updating attitudes in spatial social dilemma games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danku, Zsuzsa; Wang, Zhen; Szolnoki, Attila

2018-01-01

Evolution is based on the assumption that competing players update their strategies to increase their individual payoffs. However, while the applied updating method can be different, most of previous works proposed uniform models where players use identical way to revise their strategies. In this work we explore how imitation-based or learning attitude and innovation-based or myopic best-response attitude compete for space in a complex model where both attitudes are available. In the absence of additional cost the best response trait practically dominates the whole snow-drift game parameter space which is in agreement with the average payoff difference of basic models. When additional cost is involved then the imitation attitude can gradually invade the whole parameter space but this transition happens in a highly nontrivial way. However, the role of competing attitudes is reversed in the stag-hunt parameter space where imitation is more successful in general. Interestingly, a four-state solution can be observed for the latter game which is a consequence of an emerging cyclic dominance between possible states. These phenomena can be understood by analyzing the microscopic invasion processes, which reveals the unequal propagation velocities of strategies and attitudes.

An analysis of the massless planet approximation in transit light curve models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millholland, Sarah; Ruch, Gerry

2015-08-01

Many extrasolar planet transit light curve models use the approximation of a massless planet. They approximate the planet as orbiting elliptically with the host star at the orbit’s focus instead of depicting the planet and star as both orbiting around a common center of mass. This approximation should generally be very good because the transit is a small fraction of the full-phase curve and the planet to stellar mass ratio is typically very small. However, to fully examine the legitimacy of this approximation, it is useful to perform a robust, all-parameter space-encompassing statistical comparison between the massless planet model and the more accurate model.Towards this goal, we establish two questions: (1) In what parameter domain is the approximation invalid? (2) If characterizing an exoplanetary system in this domain, what is the error of the parameter estimates when using the simplified model? We first address question (1). Given each parameter vector in a finite space, we can generate the simplified and more complete model curves. Associated with these model curves is a measure of the deviation between them, such as the root mean square (RMS). We use Gibbs sampling to generate a sample that is distributed according to the RMS surface. The high-density regions in the sample correspond to a large deviation between the models. To determine the domains of these high-density areas, we first employ the Ordering Points to Identify the Clustering Structure (OPTICS) algorithm. We then characterize the subclusters by performing the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) on the transformed Principal Component spaces of each cluster. This process yields descriptors of the parameter domains with large discrepancies between the models.To consider question (2), we start by generating synthetic transit curve observations in the domains specified by the above analysis. We then derive the best-fit parameters of these synthetic light curves according to each model and examine the quality of agreement between the estimated parameters. Taken as a whole, these steps allow for a thorough analysis of the validity of the massless planet approximation.

On-line implementation of nonlinear parameter estimation for the Space Shuttle main engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buckland, Julia H.; Musgrave, Jeffrey L.; Walker, Bruce K.

1992-01-01

We investigate the performance of a nonlinear estimation scheme applied to the estimation of several parameters in a performance model of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. The nonlinear estimator is based upon the extended Kalman filter which has been augmented to provide estimates of several key performance variables. The estimated parameters are directly related to the efficiency of both the low pressure and high pressure fuel turbopumps. Decreases in the parameter estimates may be interpreted as degradations in turbine and/or pump efficiencies which can be useful measures for an online health monitoring algorithm. This paper extends previous work which has focused on off-line parameter estimation by investigating the filter's on-line potential from a computational standpoint. ln addition, we examine the robustness of the algorithm to unmodeled dynamics. The filter uses a reduced-order model of the engine that includes only fuel-side dynamics. The on-line results produced during this study are comparable to off-line results generated previously. The results show that the parameter estimates are sensitive to dynamics not included in the filter model. Off-line results using an extended Kalman filter with a full order engine model to address the robustness problems of the reduced-order model are also presented.

Space weather modeling using artificial neural network. (Slovak Title: Modelovanie kozmického počasia umelou neurónovou sietou)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valach, F.; Revallo, M.; Hejda, P.; Bochníček, J.

2010-12-01

Our modern society with its advanced technology is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the Earth's system disorders originating in explosive processes on the Sun. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) blasted into interplanetary space as gigantic clouds of ionized gas can hit Earth within a few hours or days and cause, among other effects, geomagnetic storms - perhaps the best known manifestation of solar wind interaction with Earth's magnetosphere. Solar energetic particles (SEP), accelerated to near relativistic energy during large solar storms, arrive at the Earth's orbit even in few minutes and pose serious risk to astronauts traveling through the interplanetary space. These and many other threats are the reason why experts pay increasing attention to space weather and its predictability. For research on space weather, it is typically necessary to examine a large number of parameters which are interrelated in a complex non-linear way. One way to cope with such a task is to use an artificial neural network for space weather modeling, a tool originally developed for artificial intelligence. In our contribution, we focus on practical aspects of the neural networks application to modeling and forecasting selected space weather parameters.

Natural Environmental Service Support to NASA Vehicle, Technology, and Sensor Development Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

The research performed under this contract involved definition of the natural environmental parameters affecting the design, development, and operation of space and launch vehicles. The Universities Space Research Association (USRA) provided the manpower and resources to accomplish the following tasks: defining environmental parameters critical for design, development, and operation of launch vehicles; defining environmental forecasts required to assure optimal utilization of launch vehicles; and defining orbital environments of operation and developing models on environmental parameters affecting launch vehicle operations.

Forecasts of non-Gaussian parameter spaces using Box-Cox transformations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joachimi, B.; Taylor, A. N.

2011-09-01

Forecasts of statistical constraints on model parameters using the Fisher matrix abound in many fields of astrophysics. The Fisher matrix formalism involves the assumption of Gaussianity in parameter space and hence fails to predict complex features of posterior probability distributions. Combining the standard Fisher matrix with Box-Cox transformations, we propose a novel method that accurately predicts arbitrary posterior shapes. The Box-Cox transformations are applied to parameter space to render it approximately multivariate Gaussian, performing the Fisher matrix calculation on the transformed parameters. We demonstrate that, after the Box-Cox parameters have been determined from an initial likelihood evaluation, the method correctly predicts changes in the posterior when varying various parameters of the experimental setup and the data analysis, with marginally higher computational cost than a standard Fisher matrix calculation. We apply the Box-Cox-Fisher formalism to forecast cosmological parameter constraints by future weak gravitational lensing surveys. The characteristic non-linear degeneracy between matter density parameter and normalization of matter density fluctuations is reproduced for several cases, and the capabilities of breaking this degeneracy by weak-lensing three-point statistics is investigated. Possible applications of Box-Cox transformations of posterior distributions are discussed, including the prospects for performing statistical data analysis steps in the transformed Gaussianized parameter space.

[Optimize dropping process of Ginkgo biloba dropping pills by using design space approach].

PubMed

Shen, Ji-Chen; Wang, Qing-Qing; Chen, An; Pan, Fang-Lai; Gong, Xing-Chu; Qu, Hai-Bin

2017-07-01

In this paper, a design space approach was applied to optimize the dropping process of Ginkgo biloba dropping pills. Firstly, potential critical process parameters and potential process critical quality attributes were determined through literature research and pre-experiments. Secondly, experiments were carried out according to Box-Behnken design. Then the critical process parameters and critical quality attributes were determined based on the experimental results. Thirdly, second-order polynomial models were used to describe the quantitative relationships between critical process parameters and critical quality attributes. Finally, a probability-based design space was calculated and verified. The verification results showed that efficient production of Ginkgo biloba dropping pills can be guaranteed by operating within the design space parameters. The recommended operation ranges for the critical dropping process parameters of Ginkgo biloba dropping pills were as follows: dropping distance of 5.5-6.7 cm, and dropping speed of 59-60 drops per minute, providing a reference for industrial production of Ginkgo biloba dropping pills. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athron, Peter; Balázs, Csaba; Bringmann, Torsten; Buckley, Andy; Chrząszcz, Marcin; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Jackson, Paul; Krislock, Abram; Kvellestad, Anders; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Martinez, Gregory D.; Putze, Antje; Raklev, Are; Rogan, Christopher; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Saavedra, Aldo; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Serra, Nicola; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin

2017-12-01

We present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of dark matter in all three models, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos.

Effects of high-latitude drivers on Ionosphere/Thermosphere parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, J.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Berrios, D.; Codrescu, M.; Emery, B. A.; Fedrizzi, M.; Foerster, M.; Foster, B. T.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Mannucci, A.; Negrea, C.; Pi, X.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Ridley, A. J.; Coster, A. J.; Goncharenko, L.; Lomidze, L.; Scherliess, L.

2012-12-01

In order to study effects of high-latitude drivers, we compared Ionosphere/Thermosphere (IT) model performance for predicting IT parameters, which were obtained using different models for the high-latitude ionospheric electric potential including Weimer 2005, AMIE (assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics) and global magnetosphere models (e.g. Space Weather Modeling Framework). For this study, the physical parameters selected are Total Electron Content (TEC) obtained by GPS ground stations, and NmF2 and hmF2 from COSMIC LEO satellites in the selected 5 degree eight longitude sectors. In addition, Ne, Te, Ti, and Tn at about 300 km height from ISRs are considered. We compared the modeled values with the observations for the 2006 AGU storm period and quantified the performance of the models using skill scores. Furthermore, the skill scores are obtained for three latitude regions (low, middle and high latitudes) in order to investigate latitudinal dependence of the models' performance. This study is supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center. The CCMC converted ionosphere drivers from a variety of sources and developed an interpolation tool that can be employed by any modelers for easy driver swapping. Model outputs and observational data used for the study will be permanently posted at the CCMC website (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) as a resource for the space science communities to use.

Space-dependent perfusion coefficient estimation in a 2D bioheat transfer problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazán, Fermín S. V.; Bedin, Luciano; Borges, Leonardo S.

2017-05-01

In this work, a method for estimating the space-dependent perfusion coefficient parameter in a 2D bioheat transfer model is presented. In the method, the bioheat transfer model is transformed into a time-dependent semidiscrete system of ordinary differential equations involving perfusion coefficient values as parameters, and the estimation problem is solved through a nonlinear least squares technique. In particular, the bioheat problem is solved by the method of lines based on a highly accurate pseudospectral approach, and perfusion coefficient values are estimated by the regularized Gauss-Newton method coupled with a proper regularization parameter. The performance of the method on several test problems is illustrated numerically.

Cost prediction model for various payloads and instruments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, F. E.

1984-01-01

The following cost parameters of the space shuttle were undertaken: (1) to develop a cost prediction model for various payload classes of instruments and experiments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter; and (2) to show the implications of various payload classes on the cost of: reliability analysis, quality assurance, environmental design requirements, documentation, parts selection, and other reliability enhancing activities.

Some dynamical aspects of interacting quintessence model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhury, Binayak S.; Mondal, Himadri Shekhar; Chatterjee, Devosmita

2018-04-01

In this paper, we consider a particular form of coupling, namely B=σ (\\dot{ρ _m}-\\dot{ρ _φ }) in spatially flat (k=0) Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) space-time. We perform phase-space analysis for this interacting quintessence (dark energy) and dark matter model for different numerical values of parameters. We also show the phase-space analysis for the `best-fit Universe' or concordance model. In our analysis, we observe the existence of late-time scaling attractors.

Hot-spot model for accretion disc variability as random process. II. Mathematics of the power-spectrum break frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pecháček, T.; Goosmann, R. W.; Karas, V.; Czerny, B.; Dovčiak, M.

2013-08-01

Context. We study some general properties of accretion disc variability in the context of stationary random processes. In particular, we are interested in mathematical constraints that can be imposed on the functional form of the Fourier power-spectrum density (PSD) that exhibits a multiply broken shape and several local maxima. Aims: We develop a methodology for determining the regions of the model parameter space that can in principle reproduce a PSD shape with a given number and position of local peaks and breaks of the PSD slope. Given the vast space of possible parameters, it is an important requirement that the method is fast in estimating the PSD shape for a given parameter set of the model. Methods: We generated and discuss the theoretical PSD profiles of a shot-noise-type random process with exponentially decaying flares. Then we determined conditions under which one, two, or more breaks or local maxima occur in the PSD. We calculated positions of these features and determined the changing slope of the model PSD. Furthermore, we considered the influence of the modulation by the orbital motion for a variability pattern assumed to result from an orbiting-spot model. Results: We suggest that our general methodology can be useful for describing non-monotonic PSD profiles (such as the trend seen, on different scales, in exemplary cases of the high-mass X-ray binary Cygnus X-1 and the narrow-line Seyfert galaxy Ark 564). We adopt a model where these power spectra are reproduced as a superposition of several Lorentzians with varying amplitudes in the X-ray-band light curve. Our general approach can help in constraining the model parameters and in determining which parts of the parameter space are accessible under various circumstances.

The predictive consequences of parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J.; Hughes, J. D.; Doherty, J. E.

2013-12-01

In numerical groundwater modeling, parameterization is the process of selecting the aspects of a computer model that will be allowed to vary during history matching. This selection process is dependent on professional judgment and is, therefore, inherently subjective. Ideally, a robust parameterization should be commensurate with the spatial and temporal resolution of the model and should include all uncertain aspects of the model. Limited computing resources typically require reducing the number of adjustable parameters so that only a subset of the uncertain model aspects are treated as estimable parameters; the remaining aspects are treated as fixed parameters during history matching. We use linear subspace theory to develop expressions for the predictive error incurred by fixing parameters. The predictive error is comprised of two terms. The first term arises directly from the sensitivity of a prediction to fixed parameters. The second term arises from prediction-sensitive adjustable parameters that are forced to compensate for fixed parameters during history matching. The compensation is accompanied by inappropriate adjustment of otherwise uninformed, null-space parameter components. Unwarranted adjustment of null-space components away from prior maximum likelihood values may produce bias if a prediction is sensitive to those components. The potential for subjective parameterization choices to corrupt predictions is examined using a synthetic model. Several strategies are evaluated, including use of piecewise constant zones, use of pilot points with Tikhonov regularization and use of the Karhunen-Loeve transformation. The best choice of parameterization (as defined by minimum error variance) is strongly dependent on the types of predictions to be made by the model.

The Supernovae Analysis Application (SNAP)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bayless, Amanda J.; Fryer, Christopher Lee; Wollaeger, Ryan Thomas

The SuperNovae Analysis aPplication (SNAP) is a new tool for the analysis of SN observations and validation of SN models. SNAP consists of a publicly available relational database with observational light curve, theoretical light curve, and correlation table sets with statistical comparison software, and a web interface available to the community. The theoretical models are intended to span a gridded range of parameter space. The goal is to have users upload new SN models or new SN observations and run the comparison software to determine correlations via the website. There are problems looming on the horizon that SNAP is beginningmore » to solve. For example, large surveys will discover thousands of SNe annually. Frequently, the parameter space of a new SN event is unbounded. SNAP will be a resource to constrain parameters and determine if an event needs follow-up without spending resources to create new light curve models from scratch. Second, there is no rapidly available, systematic way to determine degeneracies between parameters, or even what physics is needed to model a realistic SN. The correlations made within the SNAP system are beginning to solve these problems.« less

The Supernovae Analysis Application (SNAP)

DOE PAGES

Bayless, Amanda J.; Fryer, Christopher Lee; Wollaeger, Ryan Thomas; ...

2017-09-06

The SuperNovae Analysis aPplication (SNAP) is a new tool for the analysis of SN observations and validation of SN models. SNAP consists of a publicly available relational database with observational light curve, theoretical light curve, and correlation table sets with statistical comparison software, and a web interface available to the community. The theoretical models are intended to span a gridded range of parameter space. The goal is to have users upload new SN models or new SN observations and run the comparison software to determine correlations via the website. There are problems looming on the horizon that SNAP is beginningmore » to solve. For example, large surveys will discover thousands of SNe annually. Frequently, the parameter space of a new SN event is unbounded. SNAP will be a resource to constrain parameters and determine if an event needs follow-up without spending resources to create new light curve models from scratch. Second, there is no rapidly available, systematic way to determine degeneracies between parameters, or even what physics is needed to model a realistic SN. The correlations made within the SNAP system are beginning to solve these problems.« less

The Supernovae Analysis Application (SNAP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayless, Amanda J.; Fryer, Chris L.; Wollaeger, Ryan; Wiggins, Brandon; Even, Wesley; de la Rosa, Janie; Roming, Peter W. A.; Frey, Lucy; Young, Patrick A.; Thorpe, Rob; Powell, Luke; Landers, Rachel; Persson, Heather D.; Hay, Rebecca

2017-09-01

The SuperNovae Analysis aPplication (SNAP) is a new tool for the analysis of SN observations and validation of SN models. SNAP consists of a publicly available relational database with observational light curve, theoretical light curve, and correlation table sets with statistical comparison software, and a web interface available to the community. The theoretical models are intended to span a gridded range of parameter space. The goal is to have users upload new SN models or new SN observations and run the comparison software to determine correlations via the website. There are problems looming on the horizon that SNAP is beginning to solve. For example, large surveys will discover thousands of SNe annually. Frequently, the parameter space of a new SN event is unbounded. SNAP will be a resource to constrain parameters and determine if an event needs follow-up without spending resources to create new light curve models from scratch. Second, there is no rapidly available, systematic way to determine degeneracies between parameters, or even what physics is needed to model a realistic SN. The correlations made within the SNAP system are beginning to solve these problems.

An online spatiotemporal prediction model for dengue fever epidemic in Kaohsiung (Taiwan).

PubMed

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Angulo, José M; Cheng, Ming-Hung; Wu, Jiaping; Christakos, George

2014-05-01

The emergence and re-emergence of disease epidemics is a complex question that may be influenced by diverse factors, including the space-time dynamics of human populations, environmental conditions, and associated uncertainties. This study proposes a stochastic framework to integrate space-time dynamics in the form of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, together with uncertain disease observations, into a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) framework. The resulting model (BME-SIR) can be used to predict space-time disease spread. Specifically, it was applied to obtain a space-time prediction of the dengue fever (DF) epidemic that took place in Kaohsiung City (Taiwan) during 2002. In implementing the model, the SIR parameters were continually updated and information on new cases of infection was incorporated. The results obtained show that the proposed model is rigorous to user-specified initial values of unknown model parameters, that is, transmission and recovery rates. In general, this model provides a good characterization of the spatial diffusion of the DF epidemic, especially in the city districts proximal to the location of the outbreak. Prediction performance may be affected by various factors, such as virus serotypes and human intervention, which can change the space-time dynamics of disease diffusion. The proposed BME-SIR disease prediction model can provide government agencies with a valuable reference for the timely identification, control, and prevention of DF spread in space and time. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Superheavy dark matter through Higgs portal operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolb, Edward W.; Long, Andrew J.

2017-11-01

The WIMPzilla hypothesis is that the dark matter is a super-weakly-interacting and superheavy particle. Conventionally, the WIMPzilla abundance is set by gravitational particle production during or at the end of inflation. In this study we allow the WIMPzilla to interact directly with Standard Model fields through the Higgs portal, and we calculate the thermal production (freeze-in) of WIMPzilla dark matter from the annihilation of Higgs boson pairs in the plasma. The two particle-physics model parameters are the WIMPzilla mass and the Higgs-WIMPzilla coupling. The two cosmological parameters are the reheating temperature and the expansion rate of the universe at the end of inflation. We delineate the regions of parameter space where either gravitational or thermal production is dominant, and within those regions we identify the parameters that predict the observed dark matter relic abundance. Allowing for thermal production opens up the parameter space, even for Planck-suppressed Higgs-WIMPzilla interactions.

Models Archive and ModelWeb at NSSDC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilitza, D.; Papitashvili, N.; King, J. H.

2002-05-01

In addition to its large data holdings, NASA's National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC) also maintains an archive of space physics models for public use (ftp://nssdcftp.gsfc.nasa.gov/models/). The more than 60 model entries cover a wide range of parameters from the atmosphere, to the ionosphere, to the magnetosphere, to the heliosphere. The models are primarily empirical models developed by the respective model authors based on long data records from ground and space experiments. An online model catalog (http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/space/model/) provides information about these and other models and links to the model software if available. We will briefly review the existing model holdings and highlight some of its usages and users. In response to a growing need by the user community, NSSDC began to develop web-interfaces for the most frequently requested models. These interfaces enable users to compute and plot model parameters online for the specific conditions that they are interested in. Currently included in the Modelweb system (http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/space/model/) are the following models: the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, the Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter (MSIS) E90 model, the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and the AP/AE-8 models for the radiation belt electrons and protons. User accesses to both systems have been steadily increasing over the last years with occasional spikes prior to large scientific meetings. The current monthly rate is between 5,000 to 10,000 accesses for either system; in February 2002 13,872 accesses were recorded to the Modelsweb and 7092 accesses to the models archive.

Bianchi-III cosmological model with BVDP in modified f(R,T) theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, R. K.; Dua, Heena; Chand, Avtar

2018-06-01

In present paper, we have investigated Bianchi type-III cosmological model in modified f(R,T) theory of gravity as proposed by Harko et al. (Phys. Rev. D 84:024020, 2011). To find the solution of field equations, we have used i) bilinear varying deceleration parameter (BVDP) (Mishra et al. in Astrophys. Space Sci. 361:259, 2016b) ii) the fact that expansion scalar of the space-time is proportional to the one of the components of the shear scalar. Physical and geometrical properties of the model have also been discussed along with the pictorial representation of various parameters. We have observed that presented model is compatible with the recent cosmological observations.

Parameter Estimation for a Model of Space-Time Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.

1985-08-01

In this paper, parameter estimation procedures, based on data from a network of rainfall gages, are developed for a class of space-time rainfall models. The models, which are designed to represent the spatial distribution of daily rainfall, have three components, one that governs the temporal occurrence of storms, a second that distributes rain cells spatially for a given storm, and a third that determines the rainfall pattern within a rain cell. Maximum likelihood and method of moments procedures are developed. We illustrate that limitations on model structure are imposed by restricting data sources to rain gage networks. The estimation procedures are applied to a 240-mi2 (621 km2) catchment in the Potomac River basin.

Deep space network software cost estimation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tausworthe, R. C.

1981-01-01

A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for Jet PRopulsion Laboratory (JPL) Deep Space Network (DSN) Data System implementation tasks is described. The resource estimation mdel modifies and combines a number of existing models. The model calibrates the task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit JPL software life-cycle statistics.

Space Suit Thermal Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Anthony B.; Nair, Satish S.; Miles, John B.; Iovine, John V.; Lin, Chin H.

1998-01-01

The present NASA space suit (the Shuttle EMU) is a self-contained environmental control system, providing life support, environmental protection, earth-like mobility, and communications. This study considers the thermal dynamics of the space suit as they relate to astronaut thermal comfort control. A detailed dynamic lumped capacitance thermal model of the present space suit is used to analyze the thermal dynamics of the suit with observations verified using experimental and flight data. Prior to using the model to define performance characteristics and limitations for the space suit, the model is first evaluated and improved. This evaluation includes determining the effect of various model parameters on model performance and quantifying various temperature prediction errors in terms of heat transfer and heat storage. The observations from this study are being utilized in two future design efforts, automatic thermal comfort control design for the present space suit and design of future space suit systems for Space Station, Lunar, and Martian missions.

Z boson mediated dark matter beyond the effective theory

DOE PAGES

Kearney, John; Orlofsky, Nicholas; Pierce, Aaron

2017-02-17

Here, direct detection bounds are beginning to constrain a very simple model of weakly interacting dark matter—a Majorana fermion with a coupling to the Z boson. In a particularly straightforward gauge-invariant realization, this coupling is introduced via a higher-dimensional operator. While attractive in its simplicity, this model generically induces a large ρ parameter. An ultraviolet completion that avoids an overly large contribution to ρ is the singlet-doublet model. We revisit this model, focusing on the Higgs blind spot region of parameter space where spin-independent interactions are absent. This model successfully reproduces dark matter with direct detection mediated by the Zmore » boson but whose cosmology may depend on additional couplings and states. Future direct detection experiments should effectively probe a significant portion of this parameter space, aside from a small coannihilating region. As such, Z-mediated thermal dark matter as realized in the singlet-doublet model represents an interesting target for future searches.« less

SU-E-J-161: Inverse Problems for Optical Parameters in Laser Induced Thermal Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fahrenholtz, SJ; Stafford, RJ; Fuentes, DT

Purpose: Magnetic resonance-guided laser-induced thermal therapy (MRgLITT) is investigated as a neurosurgical intervention for oncological applications throughout the body by active post market studies. Real-time MR temperature imaging is used to monitor ablative thermal delivery in the clinic. Additionally, brain MRgLITT could improve through effective planning for laser fiber's placement. Mathematical bioheat models have been extensively investigated but require reliable patient specific physical parameter data, e.g. optical parameters. This abstract applies an inverse problem algorithm to characterize optical parameter data obtained from previous MRgLITT interventions. Methods: The implemented inverse problem has three primary components: a parameter-space search algorithm, a physicsmore » model, and training data. First, the parameter-space search algorithm uses a gradient-based quasi-Newton method to optimize the effective optical attenuation coefficient, μ-eff. A parameter reduction reduces the amount of optical parameter-space the algorithm must search. Second, the physics model is a simplified bioheat model for homogeneous tissue where closed-form Green's functions represent the exact solution. Third, the training data was temperature imaging data from 23 MRgLITT oncological brain ablations (980 nm wavelength) from seven different patients. Results: To three significant figures, the descriptive statistics for μ-eff were 1470 m{sup −1} mean, 1360 m{sup −1} median, 369 m{sup −1} standard deviation, 933 m{sup −1} minimum and 2260 m{sup −1} maximum. The standard deviation normalized by the mean was 25.0%. The inverse problem took <30 minutes to optimize all 23 datasets. Conclusion: As expected, the inferred average is biased by underlying physics model. However, the standard deviation normalized by the mean is smaller than literature values and indicates an increased precision in the characterization of the optical parameters needed to plan MRgLITT procedures. This investigation demonstrates the potential for the optimization and validation of more sophisticated bioheat models that incorporate the uncertainty of the data into the predictions, e.g. stochastic finite element methods.« less

Application of separable parameter space techniques to multi-tracer PET compartment modeling.

PubMed

Zhang, Jeff L; Michael Morey, A; Kadrmas, Dan J

2016-02-07

Multi-tracer positron emission tomography (PET) can image two or more tracers in a single scan, characterizing multiple aspects of biological functions to provide new insights into many diseases. The technique uses dynamic imaging, resulting in time-activity curves that contain contributions from each tracer present. The process of separating and recovering separate images and/or imaging measures for each tracer requires the application of kinetic constraints, which are most commonly applied by fitting parallel compartment models for all tracers. Such multi-tracer compartment modeling presents challenging nonlinear fits in multiple dimensions. This work extends separable parameter space kinetic modeling techniques, previously developed for fitting single-tracer compartment models, to fitting multi-tracer compartment models. The multi-tracer compartment model solution equations were reformulated to maximally separate the linear and nonlinear aspects of the fitting problem, and separable least-squares techniques were applied to effectively reduce the dimensionality of the nonlinear fit. The benefits of the approach are then explored through a number of illustrative examples, including characterization of separable parameter space multi-tracer objective functions and demonstration of exhaustive search fits which guarantee the true global minimum to within arbitrary search precision. Iterative gradient-descent algorithms using Levenberg-Marquardt were also tested, demonstrating improved fitting speed and robustness as compared to corresponding fits using conventional model formulations. The proposed technique overcomes many of the challenges in fitting simultaneous multi-tracer PET compartment models.

Sensitivity of Ionosphere/Thermosphere to different high-latitude drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, J.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Swindell, M.; Codrescu, M.; Emery, B. A.; Foerster, M.; Foster, B.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Mannucci, A. J.; Pi, X.; Prokhorov, B.; Ridley, A. J.; Coster, A. J.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Lomidze, L.; Scherliess, L.; Crowley, G.

2013-12-01

We compared Ionosphere/Thermosphere (IT) parameters, which were obtained using different models for the high-latitude ionospheric electric potential (e.g., Weimer 2005, AMIE (assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics) and global magnetosphere models (e.g. Space Weather Modeling Framework)) and particle precipitation (e.g., Fuller-Rowell & Evans, Roble & Ridley, and SWMF). For this study, the physical parameters such as Total Electron Content (TEC), NmF2 and hmF2, and electron and neutral densities at the CHAMP satellite track are considered. In addition, we compared the modeled physical parameters with observed data including ground-based GPS TEC measurements, NmF2 and hmF2 from COSMIC LEO satellites in the selected 5 degree eight longitude sectors, and Ne and neutral density measured by the CHAMP satellite. We quantified the performance of the models using skill scores. Furthermore, the skill scores are obtained for three latitude regions (low, middle and high latitudes) in order to investigate latitudinal dependence of the models' performance. This study is supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center. The CCMC converted ionosphere drivers from a variety of sources and developed an interpolation tool that can be employed by any modelers for easy driver swapping. Model outputs and observational data used for the study will be permanently posted at the CCMC website (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) as a resource for the space science communities to use.

Application of separable parameter space techniques to multi-tracer PET compartment modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jeff L.; Morey, A. Michael; Kadrmas, Dan J.

2016-02-01

Multi-tracer positron emission tomography (PET) can image two or more tracers in a single scan, characterizing multiple aspects of biological functions to provide new insights into many diseases. The technique uses dynamic imaging, resulting in time-activity curves that contain contributions from each tracer present. The process of separating and recovering separate images and/or imaging measures for each tracer requires the application of kinetic constraints, which are most commonly applied by fitting parallel compartment models for all tracers. Such multi-tracer compartment modeling presents challenging nonlinear fits in multiple dimensions. This work extends separable parameter space kinetic modeling techniques, previously developed for fitting single-tracer compartment models, to fitting multi-tracer compartment models. The multi-tracer compartment model solution equations were reformulated to maximally separate the linear and nonlinear aspects of the fitting problem, and separable least-squares techniques were applied to effectively reduce the dimensionality of the nonlinear fit. The benefits of the approach are then explored through a number of illustrative examples, including characterization of separable parameter space multi-tracer objective functions and demonstration of exhaustive search fits which guarantee the true global minimum to within arbitrary search precision. Iterative gradient-descent algorithms using Levenberg-Marquardt were also tested, demonstrating improved fitting speed and robustness as compared to corresponding fits using conventional model formulations. The proposed technique overcomes many of the challenges in fitting simultaneous multi-tracer PET compartment models.

Curvature perturbation and waterfall dynamics in hybrid inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akbar Abolhasani, Ali; Firouzjahi, Hassan; Sasaki, Misao

2011-10-01

We investigate the parameter spaces of hybrid inflation model with special attention paid to the dynamics of waterfall field and curvature perturbations induced from its quantum fluctuations. Depending on the inflaton field value at the time of phase transition and the sharpness of the phase transition inflation can have multiple extended stages. We find that for models with mild phase transition the induced curvature perturbation from the waterfall field is too large to satisfy the COBE normalization. We investigate the model parameter space where the curvature perturbations from the waterfall quantum fluctuations vary between the results of standard hybrid inflation and the results obtained here.

Genetic Algorithm-Guided, Adaptive Model Order Reduction of Flexible Aircrafts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Jin; Wang, Yi; Pant, Kapil; Suh, Peter; Brenner, Martin J.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for automated model order reduction (MOR) of flexible aircrafts to construct linear parameter-varying (LPV) reduced order models (ROM) for aeroservoelasticity (ASE) analysis and control synthesis in broad flight parameter space. The novelty includes utilization of genetic algorithms (GAs) to automatically determine the states for reduction while minimizing the trial-and-error process and heuristics requirement to perform MOR; balanced truncation for unstable systems to achieve locally optimal realization of the full model; congruence transformation for "weak" fulfillment of state consistency across the entire flight parameter space; and ROM interpolation based on adaptive grid refinement to generate a globally functional LPV ASE ROM. The methodology is applied to the X-56A MUTT model currently being tested at NASA/AFRC for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. Our studies indicate that X-56A ROM with less than one-seventh the number of states relative to the original model is able to accurately predict system response among all input-output channels for pitch, roll, and ASE control at various flight conditions. The GA-guided approach exceeds manual and empirical state selection in terms of efficiency and accuracy. The adaptive refinement allows selective addition of the grid points in the parameter space where flight dynamics varies dramatically to enhance interpolation accuracy without over-burdening controller synthesis and onboard memory efforts downstream. The present MOR framework can be used by control engineers for robust ASE controller synthesis and novel vehicle design.

Multi-Dielectric Brownian Dynamics and Design-Space-Exploration Studies of Permeation in Ion Channels.

PubMed

Siksik, May; Krishnamurthy, Vikram

2017-09-01

This paper proposes a multi-dielectric Brownian dynamics simulation framework for design-space-exploration (DSE) studies of ion-channel permeation. The goal of such DSE studies is to estimate the channel modeling-parameters that minimize the mean-squared error between the simulated and expected "permeation characteristics." To address this computational challenge, we use a methodology based on statistical inference that utilizes the knowledge of channel structure to prune the design space. We demonstrate the proposed framework and DSE methodology using a case study based on the KcsA ion channel, in which the design space is successfully reduced from a 6-D space to a 2-D space. Our results show that the channel dielectric map computed using the framework matches with that computed directly using molecular dynamics with an error of 7%. Finally, the scalability and resolution of the model used are explored, and it is shown that the memory requirements needed for DSE remain constant as the number of parameters (degree of heterogeneity) increases.

Contribution of the International Reference Ionosphere to the progress of the ionospheric representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilitza, Dieter

2017-04-01

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), a joint project of the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) and the International Union of Radio Science (URSI), is a data-based reference model for the ionosphere and since 2014 it is also recognized as the ISO (International Standardization Organization) standard for the ionosphere. The model is a synthesis of most of the available and reliable observations of ionospheric parameters combining ground and space measurements. This presentation reviews the steady progress in achieving a more and more accurate representation of the ionospheric plasma parameters accomplished during the last decade of IRI model improvements. Understandably, a data-based model is only as good as the data foundation on which it is built. We will discuss areas where we are in need of more data to obtain a more solid and continuous data foundation in space and time. We will also take a look at still existing discrepancies between simultaneous measurements of the same parameter with different measurement techniques and discuss the approach taken in the IRI model to deal with these conflicts. In conclusion we will provide an outlook at development activities that may result in significant future improvements of the accurate representation of the ionosphere in the IRI model.

Mapping the parameter space of a T2-dependent model of water diffusion MR in brain tissue.

PubMed

Hansen, Brian; Vestergaard-Poulsen, Peter

2006-10-01

We present a new model for describing the diffusion-weighted (DW) proton nuclear magnetic resonance signal obtained from normal grey matter. Our model is analytical and, in some respects, is an extension of earlier model schemes. We model tissue as composed of three separate compartments with individual properties of diffusion and transverse relaxation. Our study assumes slow exchange between compartments. We attempt to take cell morphology into account, along with its effect on water diffusion in tissues. Using this model, we simulate diffusion-sensitive MR signals and compare model output to experimental data from human grey matter. In doing this comparison, we perform a global search for good fits in the parameter space of the model. The characteristic nonmonoexponential behavior of the signal as a function of experimental b value is reproduced quite well, along with established values for tissue-specific parameters such as volume fraction, tortuosity and apparent diffusion coefficient. We believe that the presented approach to modeling diffusion in grey matter adds new aspects to the treatment of a longstanding problem.

Angular motion estimation using dynamic models in a gyro-free inertial measurement unit.

PubMed

Edwan, Ezzaldeen; Knedlik, Stefan; Loffeld, Otmar

2012-01-01

In this paper, we summarize the results of using dynamic models borrowed from tracking theory in describing the time evolution of the state vector to have an estimate of the angular motion in a gyro-free inertial measurement unit (GF-IMU). The GF-IMU is a special type inertial measurement unit (IMU) that uses only a set of accelerometers in inferring the angular motion. Using distributed accelerometers, we get an angular information vector (AIV) composed of angular acceleration and quadratic angular velocity terms. We use a Kalman filter approach to estimate the angular velocity vector since it is not expressed explicitly within the AIV. The bias parameters inherent in the accelerometers measurements' produce a biased AIV and hence the AIV bias parameters are estimated within an augmented state vector. Using dynamic models, the appended bias parameters of the AIV become observable and hence we can have unbiased angular motion estimate. Moreover, a good model is required to extract the maximum amount of information from the observation. Observability analysis is done to determine the conditions for having an observable state space model. For higher grades of accelerometers and under relatively higher sampling frequency, the error of accelerometer measurements is dominated by the noise error. Consequently, simulations are conducted on two models, one has bias parameters appended in the state space model and the other is a reduced model without bias parameters.

Angular Motion Estimation Using Dynamic Models in a Gyro-Free Inertial Measurement Unit

PubMed Central

Edwan, Ezzaldeen; Knedlik, Stefan; Loffeld, Otmar

2012-01-01

In this paper, we summarize the results of using dynamic models borrowed from tracking theory in describing the time evolution of the state vector to have an estimate of the angular motion in a gyro-free inertial measurement unit (GF-IMU). The GF-IMU is a special type inertial measurement unit (IMU) that uses only a set of accelerometers in inferring the angular motion. Using distributed accelerometers, we get an angular information vector (AIV) composed of angular acceleration and quadratic angular velocity terms. We use a Kalman filter approach to estimate the angular velocity vector since it is not expressed explicitly within the AIV. The bias parameters inherent in the accelerometers measurements' produce a biased AIV and hence the AIV bias parameters are estimated within an augmented state vector. Using dynamic models, the appended bias parameters of the AIV become observable and hence we can have unbiased angular motion estimate. Moreover, a good model is required to extract the maximum amount of information from the observation. Observability analysis is done to determine the conditions for having an observable state space model. For higher grades of accelerometers and under relatively higher sampling frequency, the error of accelerometer measurements is dominated by the noise error. Consequently, simulations are conducted on two models, one has bias parameters appended in the state space model and the other is a reduced model without bias parameters. PMID:22778586

Design of robust systems by means of the numerical optimization with harmonic changing of the model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhmud, V. A.; Reva, I. L.; Dimitrov, L. V.

2017-01-01

The design of robust feedback systems by means of the numerical optimization method is mostly accomplished with modeling of the several systems simultaneously. In each such system, regulators are similar. But the object models are different. It includes all edge values from the possible variants of the object model parameters. With all this, not all possible sets of model parameters are taken into account. Hence, the regulator can be not robust, i. e. it can not provide system stability in some cases, which were not tested during the optimization procedure. The paper proposes an alternative method. It consists in sequent changing of all parameters according to harmonic low. The frequencies of changing of each parameter are aliquant. It provides full covering of the parameters space.

State-Space Modeling of Dynamic Psychological Processes via the Kalman Smoother Algorithm: Rationale, Finite Sample Properties, and Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Hairong; Ferrer, Emilio

2009-01-01

This article presents a state-space modeling (SSM) technique for fitting process factor analysis models directly to raw data. The Kalman smoother via the expectation-maximization algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood parameter estimates is used. To examine the finite sample properties of the estimates in SSM when common factors are involved, a…

A new test statistic for climate models that includes field and spatial dependencies using Gaussian Markov random fields

DOE PAGES

Nosedal-Sanchez, Alvaro; Jackson, Charles S.; Huerta, Gabriel

2016-07-20

A new test statistic for climate model evaluation has been developed that potentially mitigates some of the limitations that exist for observing and representing field and space dependencies of climate phenomena. Traditionally such dependencies have been ignored when climate models have been evaluated against observational data, which makes it difficult to assess whether any given model is simulating observed climate for the right reasons. The new statistic uses Gaussian Markov random fields for estimating field and space dependencies within a first-order grid point neighborhood structure. We illustrate the ability of Gaussian Markov random fields to represent empirical estimates of fieldmore » and space covariances using "witch hat" graphs. We further use the new statistic to evaluate the tropical response of a climate model (CAM3.1) to changes in two parameters important to its representation of cloud and precipitation physics. Overall, the inclusion of dependency information did not alter significantly the recognition of those regions of parameter space that best approximated observations. However, there were some qualitative differences in the shape of the response surface that suggest how such a measure could affect estimates of model uncertainty.« less

A new test statistic for climate models that includes field and spatial dependencies using Gaussian Markov random fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nosedal-Sanchez, Alvaro; Jackson, Charles S.; Huerta, Gabriel

A new test statistic for climate model evaluation has been developed that potentially mitigates some of the limitations that exist for observing and representing field and space dependencies of climate phenomena. Traditionally such dependencies have been ignored when climate models have been evaluated against observational data, which makes it difficult to assess whether any given model is simulating observed climate for the right reasons. The new statistic uses Gaussian Markov random fields for estimating field and space dependencies within a first-order grid point neighborhood structure. We illustrate the ability of Gaussian Markov random fields to represent empirical estimates of fieldmore » and space covariances using "witch hat" graphs. We further use the new statistic to evaluate the tropical response of a climate model (CAM3.1) to changes in two parameters important to its representation of cloud and precipitation physics. Overall, the inclusion of dependency information did not alter significantly the recognition of those regions of parameter space that best approximated observations. However, there were some qualitative differences in the shape of the response surface that suggest how such a measure could affect estimates of model uncertainty.« less

Parameter Estimation for Geoscience Applications Using a Measure-Theoretic Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, C.; Butler, T.; Mattis, S. A.; Graham, L.; Westerink, J. J.; Vesselinov, V. V.; Estep, D.

2016-12-01

Effective modeling of complex physical systems arising in the geosciences is dependent on knowing parameters which are often difficult or impossible to measure in situ. In this talk we focus on two such problems, estimating parameters for groundwater flow and contaminant transport, and estimating parameters within a coastal ocean model. The approach we will describe, proposed by collaborators D. Estep, T. Butler and others, is based on a novel stochastic inversion technique based on measure theory. In this approach, given a probability space on certain observable quantities of interest, one searches for the sets of highest probability in parameter space which give rise to these observables. When viewed as mappings between sets, the stochastic inversion problem is well-posed in certain settings, but there are computational challenges related to the set construction. We will focus the talk on estimating scalar parameters and fields in a contaminant transport setting, and in estimating bottom friction in a complicated near-shore coastal application.

CME Arrival-time Validation of Real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations at the CCMC/SWRC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, A. M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Jian, L.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.

2016-12-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations worldwide to model CME propagation, as such it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). The SWRC is a CCMC sub-team that provides space weather services to NASA robotic mission operators and science campaigns, and also prototypes new forecasting models and techniques. CCMC/SWRC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME shock observations near Earth (ACE, Wind), STEREO-A and B for simulations completed between March 2010 - July 2016 (over 1500 runs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For hits we compute the bias, RMSE, and average absolute CME arrival time error, and the dependence of these errors on CME input parameters. We compare the predicted geomagnetic storm strength (Kp index) to the CME arrival time error for Earth-directed CMEs. The predicted Kp index is computed using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone plasma parameters at Earth with a modified Newell et al. (2007) coupling function. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations on the CME parameters used initialize the model by comparing model validation results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A side-lobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). This model validation exercise has significance for future space weather mission planning such as L5 missions.

Space station contamination modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gordon, T. D.

1989-01-01

Current plans for the operation of Space Station Freedom allow the orbit to decay to approximately an altitude of 200 km before reboosting to approximately 450 km. The Space Station will encounter dramatically increasing ambient and induced environmental effects as the orbit decays. Unfortunately, Shuttle docking, which has been of concern as a high contamination period, will likely occur during the time when the station is in the lowest orbit. The combination of ambient and induced environments along with the presence of the docked Shuttle could cause very severe contamination conditions at the lower orbital altitudes prior to Space Station reboost. The purpose here is to determine the effects on the induced external environment of Space Station Freedom with regard to the proposed changes in altitude. The change in the induced environment will be manifest in several parameters. The ambient density buildup in front of ram facing surfaces will change. The source of such contaminants can be outgassing/offgassing surfaces, leakage from the pressurized modules or experiments, purposeful venting, and thruster firings. The third induced environment parameter with altitude dependence is the glow. In order to determine the altitude dependence of the induced environment parameters, researchers used the integrated Spacecraft Environment Model (ISEM) which was developed for Marshall Space Flight Center. The analysis required numerous ISEM runs. The assumptions and limitations for the ISEM runs are described.

Effects of waveform model systematics on the interpretation of GW150914

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Avila-Alvarez, A.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; E Barclay, S.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Beer, C.; Bejger, M.; Belahcene, I.; Belgin, M.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Billman, C. R.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackman, J.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bohe, A.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; E Brau, J.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; E Broida, J.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, H.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, H.-P.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Chmiel, T.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, A. J. K.; Chua, S.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Cocchieri, C.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conti, L.; Cooper, S. J.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Covas, P. B.; E Cowan, E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; E Creighton, J. D.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cullen, T. J.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dasgupta, A.; Da Silva Costa, C. F.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Davis, D.; Daw, E. J.; Day, B.; Day, R.; De, S.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devenson, J.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Doctor, Z.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorrington, I.; Douglas, R.; Dovale Álvarez, M.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; E Dwyer, S.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Eisenstein, R. A.; Essick, R. C.; Etienne, Z.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E. J.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Fernández Galiana, A.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fong, H.; Forsyth, S. S.; Fournier, J.-D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fries, E. M.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H.; Gadre, B. U.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaur, G.; Gayathri, V.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghonge, S.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; E Gossan, S.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; E Gushwa, K.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; E Holz, D.; Hopkins, P.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Junker, J.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kéfélian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kennedy, R.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J. C.; Kim, Whansun; Kim, W.; Kim, Y.-M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kirchhoff, R.; Kissel, J. S.; Klein, B.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koch, P.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Krämer, C.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lang, R. N.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lanza, R. K.; Lartaux-Vollard, A.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, K.; Lehmann, J.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Liu, J.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lombardi, A. L.; London, L. T.; E Lord, J.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macfoy, S.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; E McClelland, D.; McCormick, S.; McGrath, C.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mendoza-Gandara, D.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; E Mikhailov, E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, A.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Muniz, E. A. M.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Napier, K.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Neri, M.; Nery, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newport, J. M.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Noack, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; E Pace, A.; Page, J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perez, C. J.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poe, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Pratt, J. W. W.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Rhoades, E.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L. M.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Scheuer, J.; Schmidt, E.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwalbe, S. G.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Setyawati, Y.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T. J.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, B.; Smith, J. R.; E Smith, R. J.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, A. P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stevenson, S. P.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; E Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thrane, E.; Tippens, T.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifirò, D.; Trinastic, J.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Tso, R.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Varma, V.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Venugopalan, G.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Viets, A. D.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; E Wade, L.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Watchi, J.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Weßels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Whittle, C.; Williams, D.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, D. S.; Wu, G.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, Hang; Yu, Haocun; Yvert, M.; Zadrożny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, S. J.; Zhu, X. J.; E Zucker, M.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration; Boyle, M.; Chu, T.; Hemberger, D.; Hinder, I.; E Kidder, L.; Ossokine, S.; Scheel, M.; Szilagyi, B.; Teukolsky, S.; Vano Vinuales, A.

2017-05-01

Parameter estimates of GW150914 were obtained using Bayesian inference, based on three semi-analytic waveform models for binary black hole coalescences. These waveform models differ from each other in their treatment of black hole spins, and all three models make some simplifying assumptions, notably to neglect sub-dominant waveform harmonic modes and orbital eccentricity. Furthermore, while the models are calibrated to agree with waveforms obtained by full numerical solutions of Einstein’s equations, any such calibration is accurate only to some non-zero tolerance and is limited by the accuracy of the underlying phenomenology, availability, quality, and parameter-space coverage of numerical simulations. This paper complements the original analyses of GW150914 with an investigation of the effects of possible systematic errors in the waveform models on estimates of its source parameters. To test for systematic errors we repeat the original Bayesian analysis on mock signals from numerical simulations of a series of binary configurations with parameters similar to those found for GW150914. Overall, we find no evidence for a systematic bias relative to the statistical error of the original parameter recovery of GW150914 due to modeling approximations or modeling inaccuracies. However, parameter biases are found to occur for some configurations disfavored by the data of GW150914: for binaries inclined edge-on to the detector over a small range of choices of polarization angles, and also for eccentricities greater than  ˜0.05. For signals with higher signal-to-noise ratio than GW150914, or in other regions of the binary parameter space (lower masses, larger mass ratios, or higher spins), we expect that systematic errors in current waveform models may impact gravitational-wave measurements, making more accurate models desirable for future observations.

Parameter reduction in nonlinear state-space identification of hysteresis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhrizadeh Esfahani, Alireza; Dreesen, Philippe; Tiels, Koen; Noël, Jean-Philippe; Schoukens, Johan

2018-05-01

Recent work on black-box polynomial nonlinear state-space modeling for hysteresis identification has provided promising results, but struggles with a large number of parameters due to the use of multivariate polynomials. This drawback is tackled in the current paper by applying a decoupling approach that results in a more parsimonious representation involving univariate polynomials. This work is carried out numerically on input-output data generated by a Bouc-Wen hysteretic model and follows up on earlier work of the authors. The current article discusses the polynomial decoupling approach and explores the selection of the number of univariate polynomials with the polynomial degree. We have found that the presented decoupling approach is able to reduce the number of parameters of the full nonlinear model up to about 50%, while maintaining a comparable output error level.

Assessment of Modeling Capability for Reproducing Storm Impacts on TEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, J. S.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Bilitza, D.; Codrescu, M.; Coster, A. J.; Emery, B. A.; Foerster, M.; Foster, B.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Huba, J. D.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Namgaladze, A. A.; Pi, X.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Ridley, A. J.; Scherliess, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.

2014-12-01

During geomagnetic storm, the energy transfer from solar wind to magnetosphere-ionosphere system adversely affects the communication and navigation systems. Quantifying storm impacts on TEC (Total Electron Content) and assessment of modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on TEC are of importance to specifying and forecasting space weather. In order to quantify storm impacts on TEC, we considered several parameters: TEC changes compared to quiet time (the day before storm), TEC difference between 24-hour intervals, and maximum increase/decrease during the storm. We investigated the spatial and temporal variations of the parameters during the 2006 AGU storm event (14-15 Dec. 2006) using ground-based GPS TEC measurements in the selected 5 degree eight longitude sectors. The latitudinal variations were also studied in two longitude sectors among the eight sectors where data coverage is relatively better. We obtained modeled TEC from various ionosphere/thermosphere (IT) models. The parameters from the models were compared with each other and with the observed values. We quantified performance of the models in reproducing the TEC variations during the storm using skill scores. This study has been supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Model outputs and observational data used for the study will be permanently posted at the CCMC website (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) for the space science communities to use.

Population Coding of Visual Space: Modeling

PubMed Central

Lehky, Sidney R.; Sereno, Anne B.

2011-01-01

We examine how the representation of space is affected by receptive field (RF) characteristics of the encoding population. Spatial responses were defined by overlapping Gaussian RFs. These responses were analyzed using multidimensional scaling to extract the representation of global space implicit in population activity. Spatial representations were based purely on firing rates, which were not labeled with RF characteristics (tuning curve peak location, for example), differentiating this approach from many other population coding models. Because responses were unlabeled, this model represents space using intrinsic coding, extracting relative positions amongst stimuli, rather than extrinsic coding where known RF characteristics provide a reference frame for extracting absolute positions. Two parameters were particularly important: RF diameter and RF dispersion, where dispersion indicates how broadly RF centers are spread out from the fovea. For large RFs, the model was able to form metrically accurate representations of physical space on low-dimensional manifolds embedded within the high-dimensional neural population response space, suggesting that in some cases the neural representation of space may be dimensionally isomorphic with 3D physical space. Smaller RF sizes degraded and distorted the spatial representation, with the smallest RF sizes (present in early visual areas) being unable to recover even a topologically consistent rendition of space on low-dimensional manifolds. Finally, although positional invariance of stimulus responses has long been associated with large RFs in object recognition models, we found RF dispersion rather than RF diameter to be the critical parameter. In fact, at a population level, the modeling suggests that higher ventral stream areas with highly restricted RF dispersion would be unable to achieve positionally-invariant representations beyond this narrow region around fixation. PMID:21344012

Space, time, and the third dimension (model error)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, Marshall E.

1979-01-01

The space-time tradeoff of hydrologic data collection (the ability to substitute spatial coverage for temporal extension of records or vice versa) is controlled jointly by the statistical properties of the phenomena that are being measured and by the model that is used to meld the information sources. The control exerted on the space-time tradeoff by the model and its accompanying errors has seldom been studied explicitly. The technique, known as Network Analyses for Regional Information (NARI), permits such a study of the regional regression model that is used to relate streamflow parameters to the physical and climatic characteristics of the drainage basin.The NARI technique shows that model improvement is a viable and sometimes necessary means of improving regional data collection systems. Model improvement provides an immediate increase in the accuracy of regional parameter estimation and also increases the information potential of future data collection. Model improvement, which can only be measured in a statistical sense, cannot be quantitatively estimated prior to its achievement; thus an attempt to upgrade a particular model entails a certain degree of risk on the part of the hydrologist.

Figures of merit for present and future dark energy probes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mortonson, Michael J.; Huterer, Dragan; Hu, Wayne

2010-09-15

We compare current and forecasted constraints on dynamical dark energy models from Type Ia supernovae and the cosmic microwave background using figures of merit based on the volume of the allowed dark energy parameter space. For a two-parameter dark energy equation of state that varies linearly with the scale factor, and assuming a flat universe, the area of the error ellipse can be reduced by a factor of {approx}10 relative to current constraints by future space-based supernova data and CMB measurements from the Planck satellite. If the dark energy equation of state is described by a more general basis ofmore » principal components, the expected improvement in volume-based figures of merit is much greater. While the forecasted precision for any single parameter is only a factor of 2-5 smaller than current uncertainties, the constraints on dark energy models bounded by -1{<=}w{<=}1 improve for approximately 6 independent dark energy parameters resulting in a reduction of the total allowed volume of principal component parameter space by a factor of {approx}100. Typical quintessence models can be adequately described by just 2-3 of these parameters even given the precision of future data, leading to a more modest but still significant improvement. In addition to advances in supernova and CMB data, percent-level measurement of absolute distance and/or the expansion rate is required to ensure that dark energy constraints remain robust to variations in spatial curvature.« less

Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex systems biology models: emulation, global parameter searches and evaluation of gene functions.

PubMed

Vernon, Ian; Liu, Junli; Goldstein, Michael; Rowe, James; Topping, Jen; Lindsey, Keith

2018-01-02

Many mathematical models have now been employed across every area of systems biology. These models increasingly involve large numbers of unknown parameters, have complex structure which can result in substantial evaluation time relative to the needs of the analysis, and need to be compared to observed data of various forms. The correct analysis of such models usually requires a global parameter search, over a high dimensional parameter space, that incorporates and respects the most important sources of uncertainty. This can be an extremely difficult task, but it is essential for any meaningful inference or prediction to be made about any biological system. It hence represents a fundamental challenge for the whole of systems biology. Bayesian statistical methodology for the uncertainty analysis of complex models is introduced, which is designed to address the high dimensional global parameter search problem. Bayesian emulators that mimic the systems biology model but which are extremely fast to evaluate are embeded within an iterative history match: an efficient method to search high dimensional spaces within a more formal statistical setting, while incorporating major sources of uncertainty. The approach is demonstrated via application to a model of hormonal crosstalk in Arabidopsis root development, which has 32 rate parameters, for which we identify the sets of rate parameter values that lead to acceptable matches between model output and observed trend data. The multiple insights into the model's structure that this analysis provides are discussed. The methodology is applied to a second related model, and the biological consequences of the resulting comparison, including the evaluation of gene functions, are described. Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex models using both emulators and history matching is shown to be a powerful technique that can greatly aid the study of a large class of systems biology models. It both provides insight into model behaviour and identifies the sets of rate parameters of interest.

Big Data Analytics for Modelling and Forecasting of Geomagnetic Field Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, H. L.

2016-12-01

A massive amount of data are produced and stored in research areas of space weather and space climate. However, the value of a vast majority of the data acquired every day may not be effectively or efficiently exploited in our daily practice when we try to forecast solar wind parameters and geomagnetic field indices using these recorded measurements or digital signals, probably due to the challenges stemming from the dealing with big data which are characterized by the 4V futures: volume (a massively large amount of data), variety (a great number of different types of data), velocity (a requirement of quick processing of the data), and veracity (the trustworthiness and usability of the data). In order to obtain more reliable and accurate predictive models for geomagnetic field indices, it requires that models should be developed from the big data analytics perspective (or it at least benefits from such a perspective). This study proposes a few data-based modelling frameworks which aim to produce more efficient predictive models for space weather parameters forecasting by means of system identification and big data analytics. More specifically, it aims to build more reliable mathematical models that characterise the relationship between solar wind parameters and geomagnetic filed indices, for example the dependent relationship of Dst and Kp indices on a few solar wind parameters and magnetic field indices, namely, solar wind velocity (V), southward interplanetary magnetic field (Bs), solar wind rectified electric field (VBs), and dynamic flow pressure (P). Examples are provided to illustrate how the proposed modelling approaches are applied to Dst and Kp index prediction.

Effects of OCR Errors on Ranking and Feedback Using the Vector Space Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taghva, Kazem; And Others

1996-01-01

Reports on the performance of the vector space model in the presence of OCR (optical character recognition) errors in information retrieval. Highlights include precision and recall, a full-text test collection, smart vector representation, impact of weighting parameters, ranking variability, and the effect of relevance feedback. (Author/LRW)

The relationship of rain-induced cross-polarization discrimination to attenuation for 10 to 30 GHz earth-space radio links

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stutzman, W. L.; Runyon, D. L.

1984-01-01

Rain depolarization is quantified through the cross-polarization discrimination (XPD) versus attenuation relationship. Such a relationship is derived by curve fitting to a rigorous theoretical model (the multiple scattering model) to determine the variation of the parameters involved. This simple isolation model (SIM) is compared to data from several earth-space link experiments and to three other models.

Application of Non-Deterministic Methods to Assess Modeling Uncertainties for Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Debris Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyle, Karen H.; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Melis, Matthew; Carney, Kelly; Gabrys, Jonathan

2004-01-01

The Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) made several recommendations for improving the NASA Space Shuttle Program. An extensive experimental and analytical program has been developed to address two recommendations related to structural impact analysis. The objective of the present work is to demonstrate the application of probabilistic analysis to assess the effect of uncertainties on debris impacts on Space Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels. The probabilistic analysis is used to identify the material modeling parameters controlling the uncertainty. A comparison of the finite element results with limited experimental data provided confidence that the simulations were adequately representing the global response of the material. Five input parameters were identified as significantly controlling the response.

Comparison of sampling techniques for Bayesian parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, Rupert; Dunkley, Joanna

2014-02-01

The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the posterior probability distribution we have to decide how to explore parameter space. Here we compare three prescriptions for how parameter space is navigated, discussing their relative merits. We consider Metropolis-Hasting sampling, nested sampling and affine-invariant ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We focus on their performance on toy-model Gaussian likelihoods and on a real-world cosmological data set. We outline the sampling algorithms themselves and elaborate on performance diagnostics such as convergence time, scope for parallelization, dimensional scaling, requisite tunings and suitability for non-Gaussian distributions. We find that nested sampling delivers high-fidelity estimates for posterior statistics at low computational cost, and should be adopted in favour of Metropolis-Hastings in many cases. Affine-invariant MCMC is competitive when computing clusters can be utilized for massive parallelization. Affine-invariant MCMC and existing extensions to nested sampling naturally probe multimodal and curving distributions.

The effect of changes in space shuttle parameters on the NASA/MSFC multilayer diffusion model predictions of surface HCl concentrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glasser, M. E.; Rundel, R. D.

1978-01-01

A method for formulating these changes into the model input parameters using a preprocessor program run on a programed data processor was implemented. The results indicate that any changes in the input parameters are small enough to be negligible in comparison to meteorological inputs and the limitations of the model and that such changes will not substantially increase the number of meteorological cases for which the model will predict surface hydrogen chloride concentrations exceeding public safety levels.

A black box optimization approach to parameter estimation in a model for long/short term variations dynamics of commodity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Santis, Alberto; Dellepiane, Umberto; Lucidi, Stefano

2012-11-01

In this paper we investigate the estimation problem for a model of the commodity prices. This model is a stochastic state space dynamical model and the problem unknowns are the state variables and the system parameters. Data are represented by the commodity spot prices, very seldom time series of Futures contracts are available for free. Both the system joint likelihood function (state variables and parameters) and the system marginal likelihood (the state variables are eliminated) function are addressed.

Multi-objective trajectory optimization for the space exploration vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Xiaoli; Xiao, Zhen

2016-07-01

The research determines temperature-constrained optimal trajectory for the space exploration vehicle by developing an optimal control formulation and solving it using a variable order quadrature collocation method with a Non-linear Programming(NLP) solver. The vehicle is assumed to be the space reconnaissance aircraft that has specified takeoff/landing locations, specified no-fly zones, and specified targets for sensor data collections. A three degree of freedom aircraft model is adapted from previous work and includes flight dynamics, and thermal constraints.Vehicle control is accomplished by controlling angle of attack, roll angle, and propellant mass flow rate. This model is incorporated into an optimal control formulation that includes constraints on both the vehicle and mission parameters, such as avoidance of no-fly zones and exploration of space targets. In addition, the vehicle models include the environmental models(gravity and atmosphere). How these models are appropriately employed is key to gaining confidence in the results and conclusions of the research. Optimal trajectories are developed using several performance costs in the optimal control formation,minimum time,minimum time with control penalties,and maximum distance.The resulting analysis demonstrates that optimal trajectories that meet specified mission parameters and constraints can be quickly determined and used for large-scale space exloration.

Inverse problem for multispecies ferromagneticlike mean-field models in phase space with many states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedele, Micaela; Vernia, Cecilia

2017-10-01

In this paper we solve the inverse problem for the Curie-Weiss model and its multispecies version when multiple thermodynamic states are present as in the low temperature phase where the phase space is clustered. The inverse problem consists of reconstructing the model parameters starting from configuration data generated according to the distribution of the model. We demonstrate that, without taking into account the presence of many states, the application of the inversion procedure produces very poor inference results. To overcome this problem, we use the clustering algorithm. When the system has two symmetric states of positive and negative magnetizations, the parameter reconstruction can also be obtained with smaller computational effort simply by flipping the sign of the magnetizations from positive to negative (or vice versa). The parameter reconstruction fails when the system undergoes a phase transition: In that case we give the correct inversion formulas for the Curie-Weiss model and we show that they can be used to measure how close the system gets to being critical.

VIP: A knowledge-based design aid for the engineering of space systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Steven M.; Bellman, Kirstie L.

1990-01-01

The Vehicles Implementation Project (VIP), a knowledge-based design aid for the engineering of space systems is described. VIP combines qualitative knowledge in the form of rules, quantitative knowledge in the form of equations, and other mathematical modeling tools. The system allows users rapidly to develop and experiment with models of spacecraft system designs. As information becomes available to the system, appropriate equations are solved symbolically and the results are displayed. Users may browse through the system, observing dependencies and the effects of altering specific parameters. The system can also suggest approaches to the derivation of specific parameter values. In addition to providing a tool for the development of specific designs, VIP aims at increasing the user's understanding of the design process. Users may rapidly examine the sensitivity of a given parameter to others in the system and perform tradeoffs or optimizations of specific parameters. A second major goal of VIP is to integrate the existing corporate knowledge base of models and rules into a central, symbolic form.

Effects of two-temperature parameter and thermal nonlocal parameter on transient responses of a half-space subjected to ramp-type heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Zhang-Na; Yu, Ya-Jun; Tian, Xiao-Geng

2017-07-01

Based upon the coupled thermoelasticity and Green and Lindsay theory, the new governing equations of two-temperature thermoelastic theory with thermal nonlocal parameter is formulated. To more realistically model thermal loading of a half-space surface, a linear temperature ramping function is adopted. Laplace transform techniques are used to get the general analytical solutions in Laplace domain, and the inverse Laplace transforms based on Fourier expansion techniques are numerically implemented to obtain the numerical solutions in time domain. Specific attention is paid to study the effect of thermal nonlocal parameter, ramping time, and two-temperature parameter on the distributions of temperature, displacement and stress distribution.

Space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition. Volume 2: SRB water impact Monte Carlo computer program, user's manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

The HD 220 program was created as part of the space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition. The model was generated to investigate the damage to SRB components under water impact loads. The random nature of environmental parameters, such as ocean waves and wind conditions, necessitates estimation of the relative frequency of occurrence for these parameters. The nondeterministic nature of component strengths also lends itself to probabilistic simulation. The Monte Carlo technique allows the simultaneous perturbation of multiple independent parameters and provides outputs describing the probability distribution functions of the dependent parameters. This allows the user to determine the required statistics for each output parameter.

Machine Learning Techniques for Global Sensitivity Analysis in Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safta, C.; Sargsyan, K.; Ricciuto, D. M.

2017-12-01

Climate models studies are not only challenged by the compute intensive nature of these models but also by the high-dimensionality of the input parameter space. In our previous work with the land model components (Sargsyan et al., 2014) we identified subsets of 10 to 20 parameters relevant for each QoI via Bayesian compressive sensing and variance-based decomposition. Nevertheless the algorithms were challenged by the nonlinear input-output dependencies for some of the relevant QoIs. In this work we will explore a combination of techniques to extract relevant parameters for each QoI and subsequently construct surrogate models with quantified uncertainty necessary to future developments, e.g. model calibration and prediction studies. In the first step, we will compare the skill of machine-learning models (e.g. neural networks, support vector machine) to identify the optimal number of classes in selected QoIs and construct robust multi-class classifiers that will partition the parameter space in regions with smooth input-output dependencies. These classifiers will be coupled with techniques aimed at building sparse and/or low-rank surrogate models tailored to each class. Specifically we will explore and compare sparse learning techniques with low-rank tensor decompositions. These models will be used to identify parameters that are important for each QoI. Surrogate accuracy requirements are higher for subsequent model calibration studies and we will ascertain the performance of this workflow for multi-site ALM simulation ensembles.

Analysis of the sensitivity properties of a model of vector-borne bubonic plague.

PubMed

Buzby, Megan; Neckels, David; Antolin, Michael F; Estep, Donald

2008-09-06

Model sensitivity is a key to evaluation of mathematical models in ecology and evolution, especially in complex models with numerous parameters. In this paper, we use some recently developed methods for sensitivity analysis to study the parameter sensitivity of a model of vector-borne bubonic plague in a rodent population proposed by Keeling & Gilligan. The new sensitivity tools are based on a variational analysis involving the adjoint equation. The new approach provides a relatively inexpensive way to obtain derivative information about model output with respect to parameters. We use this approach to determine the sensitivity of a quantity of interest (the force of infection from rats and their fleas to humans) to various model parameters, determine a region over which linearization at a specific parameter reference point is valid, develop a global picture of the output surface, and search for maxima and minima in a given region in the parameter space.

Sun-to-Earth simulations of geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejections with EUHFORIA: a heliospheric-magnetospheric model chain approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scolini, C.; Verbeke, C.; Gopalswamy, N.; Wijsen, N.; Poedts, S.; Mierla, M.; Rodriguez, L.; Pomoell, J.; Cramer, W. D.; Raeder, J.

2017-12-01

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their interplanetary counterparts are considered to be the major space weather drivers. An accurate modelling of their onset and propagation up to 1 AU represents a key issue for more reliable space weather forecasts, and predictions about their actual geo-effectiveness can only be performed by coupling global heliospheric models to 3D models describing the terrestrial environment, e.g. magnetospheric and ionospheric codes in the first place. In this work we perform a Sun-to-Earth comprehensive analysis of the July 12, 2012 CME with the aim of testing the space weather predictive capabilities of the newly developed EUHFORIA heliospheric model integrated with the Gibson-Low (GL) flux rope model. In order to achieve this goal, we make use of a model chain approach by using EUHFORIA outputs at Earth as input parameters for the OpenGGCM magnetospheric model. We first reconstruct the CME kinematic parameters by means of single- and multi- spacecraft reconstruction methods based on coronagraphic and heliospheric CME observations. The magnetic field-related parameters of the flux rope are estimated based on imaging observations of the photospheric and low coronal source regions of the eruption. We then simulate the event with EUHFORIA, testing the effect of the different CME kinematic input parameters on simulation results at L1. We compare simulation outputs with in-situ measurements of the Interplanetary CME and we use them as input for the OpenGGCM model, so to investigate the magnetospheric response to solar perturbations. From simulation outputs we extract some global geomagnetic activity indexes and compare them with actual data records and with results obtained by the use of empirical relations. Finally, we discuss the forecasting capabilities of such kind of approach and its future improvements.

A new Bayesian Earthquake Analysis Tool (BEAT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes; Dutta, Rishabh; Jónsson, Sigurjón; Mai, Martin

2017-04-01

Modern earthquake source estimation studies increasingly use non-linear optimization strategies to estimate kinematic rupture parameters, often considering geodetic and seismic data jointly. However, the optimization process is complex and consists of several steps that need to be followed in the earthquake parameter estimation procedure. These include pre-describing or modeling the fault geometry, calculating the Green's Functions (often assuming a layered elastic half-space), and estimating the distributed final slip and possibly other kinematic source parameters. Recently, Bayesian inference has become popular for estimating posterior distributions of earthquake source model parameters given measured/estimated/assumed data and model uncertainties. For instance, some research groups consider uncertainties of the layered medium and propagate these to the source parameter uncertainties. Other groups make use of informative priors to reduce the model parameter space. In addition, innovative sampling algorithms have been developed that efficiently explore the often high-dimensional parameter spaces. Compared to earlier studies, these improvements have resulted in overall more robust source model parameter estimates that include uncertainties. However, the computational demands of these methods are high and estimation codes are rarely distributed along with the published results. Even if codes are made available, it is often difficult to assemble them into a single optimization framework as they are typically coded in different programing languages. Therefore, further progress and future applications of these methods/codes are hampered, while reproducibility and validation of results has become essentially impossible. In the spirit of providing open-access and modular codes to facilitate progress and reproducible research in earthquake source estimations, we undertook the effort of producing BEAT, a python package that comprises all the above-mentioned features in one single programing environment. The package is build on top of the pyrocko seismological toolbox (www.pyrocko.org) and makes use of the pymc3 module for Bayesian statistical model fitting. BEAT is an open-source package (https://github.com/hvasbath/beat) and we encourage and solicit contributions to the project. In this contribution, we present our strategy for developing BEAT, show application examples, and discuss future developments.

Robust root clustering for linear uncertain systems using generalized Lyapunov theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yedavalli, R. K.

1993-01-01

Consideration is given to the problem of matrix root clustering in subregions of a complex plane for linear state space models with real parameter uncertainty. The nominal matrix root clustering theory of Gutman & Jury (1981) using the generalized Liapunov equation is extended to the perturbed matrix case, and bounds are derived on the perturbation to maintain root clustering inside a given region. The theory makes it possible to obtain an explicit relationship between the parameters of the root clustering region and the uncertainty range of the parameter space.

Expanding (3+1)-dimensional universe from a lorentzian matrix model for superstring theory in (9+1) dimensions.

PubMed

Kim, Sang-Woo; Nishimura, Jun; Tsuchiya, Asato

2012-01-06

We reconsider the matrix model formulation of type IIB superstring theory in (9+1)-dimensional space-time. Unlike the previous works in which the Wick rotation was used to make the model well defined, we regularize the Lorentzian model by introducing infrared cutoffs in both the spatial and temporal directions. Monte Carlo studies reveal that the two cutoffs can be removed in the large-N limit and that the theory thus obtained has no parameters other than one scale parameter. Moreover, we find that three out of nine spatial directions start to expand at some "critical time," after which the space has SO(3) symmetry instead of SO(9).

Shuttle derived atmospheric density model. Part 1: Comparisons of the various ambient atmospheric source data with derived parameters from the first twelve STS entry flights, a data package for AOTV atmospheric development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Findlay, J. T.; Kelly, G. M.; Troutman, P. A.

1984-01-01

The ambient atmospheric parameter comparisons versus derived values from the first twelve Space Shuttle Orbiter entry flights are presented. Available flights, flight data products, and data sources utilized are reviewed. Comparisons are presented based on remote meteorological measurements as well as two comprehensive models which incorporate latitudinal and seasonal effects. These are the Air Force 1978 Reference Atmosphere and the Marshall Space Flight Center Global Reference Model (GRAM). Atmospheric structure sensible in the Shuttle flight data is shown and discussed. A model for consideration in Aero-assisted Orbital Transfer Vehicle (AOTV) trajectory analysis, proposed to modify the GRAM data to emulate Shuttle experiments.

Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) Using Multi-Optimization Algorithm as Sampling Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.

2015-12-01

For decades, distributed and lumped hydrological models have furthered our understanding of hydrological system. The development of hydrological simulation in large scale and high precision elaborated the spatial descriptions and hydrological behaviors. Meanwhile, the new trend is also followed by the increment of model complexity and number of parameters, which brings new challenges of uncertainty quantification. Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) has been widely used in uncertainty analysis for hydrological models referring to Monte Carlo method coupled with Bayesian estimation. However, the stochastic sampling method of prior parameters adopted by GLUE appears inefficient, especially in high dimensional parameter space. The heuristic optimization algorithms utilizing iterative evolution show better convergence speed and optimality-searching performance. In light of the features of heuristic optimization algorithms, this study adopted genetic algorithm, differential evolution, shuffled complex evolving algorithm to search the parameter space and obtain the parameter sets of large likelihoods. Based on the multi-algorithm sampling, hydrological model uncertainty analysis is conducted by the typical GLUE framework. To demonstrate the superiority of the new method, two hydrological models of different complexity are examined. The results shows the adaptive method tends to be efficient in sampling and effective in uncertainty analysis, providing an alternative path for uncertainty quantilization.

Tensor methods for parameter estimation and bifurcation analysis of stochastic reaction networks

PubMed Central

Liao, Shuohao; Vejchodský, Tomáš; Erban, Radek

2015-01-01

Stochastic modelling of gene regulatory networks provides an indispensable tool for understanding how random events at the molecular level influence cellular functions. A common challenge of stochastic models is to calibrate a large number of model parameters against the experimental data. Another difficulty is to study how the behaviour of a stochastic model depends on its parameters, i.e. whether a change in model parameters can lead to a significant qualitative change in model behaviour (bifurcation). In this paper, tensor-structured parametric analysis (TPA) is developed to address these computational challenges. It is based on recently proposed low-parametric tensor-structured representations of classical matrices and vectors. This approach enables simultaneous computation of the model properties for all parameter values within a parameter space. The TPA is illustrated by studying the parameter estimation, robustness, sensitivity and bifurcation structure in stochastic models of biochemical networks. A Matlab implementation of the TPA is available at http://www.stobifan.org. PMID:26063822

Tensor methods for parameter estimation and bifurcation analysis of stochastic reaction networks.

PubMed

Liao, Shuohao; Vejchodský, Tomáš; Erban, Radek

2015-07-06

Stochastic modelling of gene regulatory networks provides an indispensable tool for understanding how random events at the molecular level influence cellular functions. A common challenge of stochastic models is to calibrate a large number of model parameters against the experimental data. Another difficulty is to study how the behaviour of a stochastic model depends on its parameters, i.e. whether a change in model parameters can lead to a significant qualitative change in model behaviour (bifurcation). In this paper, tensor-structured parametric analysis (TPA) is developed to address these computational challenges. It is based on recently proposed low-parametric tensor-structured representations of classical matrices and vectors. This approach enables simultaneous computation of the model properties for all parameter values within a parameter space. The TPA is illustrated by studying the parameter estimation, robustness, sensitivity and bifurcation structure in stochastic models of biochemical networks. A Matlab implementation of the TPA is available at http://www.stobifan.org.

A Short-Term and High-Resolution System Load Forecasting Approach Using Support Vector Regression with Hybrid Parameters Optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang

This work proposes an approach for distribution system load forecasting, which aims to provide highly accurate short-term load forecasting with high resolution utilizing a support vector regression (SVR) based forecaster and a two-step hybrid parameters optimization method. Specifically, because the load profiles in distribution systems contain abrupt deviations, a data normalization is designed as the pretreatment for the collected historical load data. Then an SVR model is trained by the load data to forecast the future load. For better performance of SVR, a two-step hybrid optimization algorithm is proposed to determine the best parameters. In the first step of themore » hybrid optimization algorithm, a designed grid traverse algorithm (GTA) is used to narrow the parameters searching area from a global to local space. In the second step, based on the result of the GTA, particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to determine the best parameters in the local parameter space. After the best parameters are determined, the SVR model is used to forecast the short-term load deviation in the distribution system.« less

Design for approaching Cicada-wing reflectance in low- and high-index biomimetic nanostructures.

PubMed

Huang, Yi-Fan; Jen, Yi-Jun; Chen, Li-Chyong; Chen, Kuei-Hsien; Chattopadhyay, Surojit

2015-01-27

Natural nanostructures in low refractive index Cicada wings demonstrate ≤ 1% reflectance over the visible spectrum. We provide design parameters for Cicada-wing-inspired nanotip arrays as efficient light harvesters over a 300-1000 nm spectrum and up to 60° angle of incidence in both low-index, such as silica and indium tin oxide, and high-index, such as silicon and germanium, photovoltaic materials. Biomimicry of the Cicada wing design, demonstrating gradient index, onto these material surfaces, either by real electron cyclotron resonance microwave plasma processing or by modeling, was carried out to achieve a target reflectance of ∼ 1%. Design parameters of spacing/wavelength and length/spacing fitted into a finite difference time domain model could simulate the experimental reflectance values observed in real silicon and germanium or in model silica and indium tin oxide nanotip arrays. A theoretical mapping of the length/spacing and spacing/wavelength space over varied refractive index materials predicts that lengths of ∼ 1.5 μm and spacings of ∼ 200 nm in high-index and lengths of ∼ 200-600 nm and spacings of ∼ 100-400 nm in low-index materials would exhibit ≤ 1% target reflectance and ∼ 99% optical absorption over the entire UV-vis region and angle of incidence up to 60°.

PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE-MOVING AVERAGE (PARMA) MODELING WITH APPLICATIONS TO WATER RESOURCES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, A.V.

1985-01-01

Results involving correlation properties and parameter estimation for autogressive-moving average models with periodic parameters are presented. A multivariate representation of the PARMA model is used to derive parameter space restrictions and difference equations for the periodic autocorrelations. Close approximation to the likelihood function for Gaussian PARMA processes results in efficient maximum-likelihood estimation procedures. Terms in the Fourier expansion of the parameters are sequentially included, and a selection criterion is given for determining the optimal number of harmonics to be included. Application of the techniques is demonstrated through analysis of a monthly streamflow time series.

Visualization of Space-Time Ambiguities to be Explored by NASA GEC Mission with a Critique of Synthesized Measurements for Different GEC Mission Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sojka, Jan J.

2003-01-01

The Grant supported research addressing the question of how the NASA Solar Terrestrial Probes (STP) Mission called Geospace electrodynamics Connections (GEC) will resolve space-time structures as well as collect sufficient information to solve the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere- magnetosphere dynamics and electrodynamics. The approach adopted was to develop a high resolution in both space and time model of the ionosphere-thermosphere (I-T) over altitudes relevant to GEC, especially the deep-dipping phase. This I-T model was driven by a high- resolution model of magnetospheric-ionospheric (M-I) coupling electrodynamics. Such a model contains all the key parameters to be measured by GEC instrumentation, which in turn are the required parameters to resolve present-day problems in describing the energy and momentum coupling between the ionosphere-magnetosphere and ionosphere-thermosphere. This model database has been successfully created for one geophysical condition; winter, solar maximum with disturbed geophysical conditions, specifically a substorm. Using this data set, visualizations (movies) were created to contrast dynamics of the different measurable parameters. Specifically, the rapidly varying magnetospheric E and auroral electron precipitation versus the slower varying ionospheric F-region electron density, but rapidly responding E-region density.

Analytical determination of space station response to crew motion and design of suspension system for microgravity experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, F. C.

1986-01-01

The objective of this investigation is to make analytical determination of the acceleration produced by crew motion in an orbiting space station and define design parameters for the suspension system of microgravity experiments. A simple structural model for simulation of the IOC space station is proposed. Mathematical formulation of this model provides the engineers a simple and direct tool for designing an effective suspension system.

Oracle estimation of parametric models under boundary constraints.

PubMed

Wong, Kin Yau; Goldberg, Yair; Fine, Jason P

2016-12-01

In many classical estimation problems, the parameter space has a boundary. In most cases, the standard asymptotic properties of the estimator do not hold when some of the underlying true parameters lie on the boundary. However, without knowledge of the true parameter values, confidence intervals constructed assuming that the parameters lie in the interior are generally over-conservative. A penalized estimation method is proposed in this article to address this issue. An adaptive lasso procedure is employed to shrink the parameters to the boundary, yielding oracle inference which adapt to whether or not the true parameters are on the boundary. When the true parameters are on the boundary, the inference is equivalent to that which would be achieved with a priori knowledge of the boundary, while if the converse is true, the inference is equivalent to that which is obtained in the interior of the parameter space. The method is demonstrated under two practical scenarios, namely the frailty survival model and linear regression with order-restricted parameters. Simulation studies and real data analyses show that the method performs well with realistic sample sizes and exhibits certain advantages over standard methods. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Extending the modeling of the anisotropic galaxy power spectrum to k = 0.4 h Mpc{sup −1}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hand, Nick; Seljak, Uroš; Beutler, Florian

We present a model for the redshift-space power spectrum of galaxies and demonstrate its accuracy in describing the monopole, quadrupole, and hexadecapole of the galaxy density field down to scales of k = 0.4 h Mpc{sup −1}. The model describes the clustering of galaxies in the context of a halo model and the clustering of the underlying halos in redshift space using a combination of Eulerian perturbation theory and N -body simulations. The modeling of redshift-space distortions is done using the so-called distribution function approach. The final model has 13 free parameters, and each parameter is physically motivated rather thanmore » a nuisance parameter, which allows the use of well-motivated priors. We account for the Finger-of-God effect from centrals and both isolated and non-isolated satellites rather than using a single velocity dispersion to describe the combined effect. We test and validate the accuracy of the model on several sets of high-fidelity N -body simulations, as well as realistic mock catalogs designed to simulate the BOSS DR12 CMASS data set. The suite of simulations covers a range of cosmologies and galaxy bias models, providing a rigorous test of the level of theoretical systematics present in the model. The level of bias in the recovered values of f σ{sub 8} is found to be small. When including scales to k = 0.4 h Mpc{sup −1}, we find 15-30% gains in the statistical precision of f σ{sub 8} relative to k = 0.2 h Mpc{sup −1} and a roughly 10–15% improvement for the perpendicular Alcock-Paczynski parameter α{sub ⊥}. Using the BOSS DR12 CMASS mocks as a benchmark for comparison, we estimate an uncertainty on f σ{sub 8} that is ∼10–20% larger than other similar Fourier-space RSD models in the literature that use k ≤ 0.2 h Mpc{sup −1}, suggesting that these models likely have a too-limited parametrization.« less

Bone-conduction circuit model for chinchilla part I: Defining parameters by fitting to air-conduction data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowers, Peter; Rosowski, John J.

2018-05-01

An air-conduction circuit model that will serve as the basis for a model of bone-conduction hearing is developed for chinchilla. The lumped-element model is based on the classic Zwislocki model of the human middle ear. Model parameters are fit to various measurements of chinchilla middle-ear transfer functions and impedances. The model is in agreement with studies of the effects of middle-ear cavity holes in experiments that require access to the middle-ear air space.

Exploring Replica-Exchange Wang-Landau sampling in higher-dimensional parameter space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Valentim, Alexandra; Rocha, Julio C. S.; Tsai, Shan-Ho

We considered a higher-dimensional extension for the replica-exchange Wang-Landau algorithm to perform a random walk in the energy and magnetization space of the two-dimensional Ising model. This hybrid scheme combines the advantages of Wang-Landau and Replica-Exchange algorithms, and the one-dimensional version of this approach has been shown to be very efficient and to scale well, up to several thousands of computing cores. This approach allows us to split the parameter space of the system to be simulated into several pieces and still perform a random walk over the entire parameter range, ensuring the ergodicity of the simulation. Previous work, inmore » which a similar scheme of parallel simulation was implemented without using replica exchange and with a different way to combine the result from the pieces, led to discontinuities in the final density of states over the entire range of parameters. From our simulations, it appears that the replica-exchange Wang-Landau algorithm is able to overcome this diculty, allowing exploration of higher parameter phase space by keeping track of the joint density of states.« less

Solar array electrical performance assessment for Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Bryan K.; Brisco, Holly

1993-01-01

Electrical power for Space Station Freedom will be generated by large Photovoltaic arrays with a beginning of life power requirement of 30.8 kW per array. The solar arrays will operate in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) over a design life of fifteen years. This paper provides an analysis of the predicted solar array electrical performance over the design life and presents a summary of supporting analysis and test data for the assigned model parameters and performance loss factors. Each model parameter and loss factor is assessed based upon program requirements, component analysis, and test data to date. A description of the LMSC performance model, future test plans, and predicted performance ranges are also given.

Solar array electrical performance assessment for Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Bryan K.; Brisco, Holly

1993-01-01

Electrical power for Space Station Freedom will be generated by large photovoltaic arrays with a beginning of life power requirement of 30.8 kW per array. The solar arrays will operate in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) over a design life of fifteen years. This paper provides an analysis of the predicted solar array electrical performance over the design life and presents a summary of supporting analysis and test data for the assigned model parameters and performance loss factors. Each model parameter and loss factor is assessed based upon program requirements, component analysis and test data to date. A description of the LMSC performance model future test plans and predicted performance ranges are also given.

Heat transfer measurements for Stirling machine cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kornhauser, Alan A.; Kafka, B. C.; Finkbeiner, D. L.; Cantelmi, F. C.

1994-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to measure the effects of inflow-produced heat turbulence on heat transfer in Stirling machine cylinders. A secondary purpose was to provide new experimental information on heat transfer in gas springs without inflow. The apparatus for the experiment consisted of a varying-volume piston-cylinder space connected to a fixed volume space by an orifice. The orifice size could be varied to adjust the level of inflow-produced turbulence, or the orifice plate could be removed completely so as to merge the two spaces into a single gas spring space. Speed, cycle mean pressure, overall volume ratio, and varying volume space clearance ratio could also be adjusted. Volume, pressure in both spaces, and local heat flux at two locations were measured. The pressure and volume measurements were used to calculate area averaged heat flux, heat transfer hysteresis loss, and other heat transfer-related effects. Experiments in the one space arrangement extended the range of previous gas spring tests to lower volume ratio and higher nondimensional speed. The tests corroborated previous results and showed that analytic models for heat transfer and loss based on volume ratio approaching 1 were valid for volume ratios ranging from 1 to 2, a range covering most gas springs in Stirling machines. Data from experiments in the two space arrangement were first analyzed based on lumping the two spaces together and examining total loss and averaged heat transfer as a function of overall nondimensional parameter. Heat transfer and loss were found to be significantly increased by inflow-produced turbulence. These increases could be modeled by appropriate adjustment of empirical coefficients in an existing semi-analytic model. An attempt was made to use an inverse, parameter optimization procedure to find the heat transfer in each of the two spaces. This procedure was successful in retrieving this information from simulated pressure-volume data with artificially generated noise, but it failed with the actual experimental data. This is evidence that the models used in the parameter optimization procedure (and to generate the simulated data) were not correct. Data from the surface heat flux sensors indicated that the primary shortcoming of these models was that they assumed turbulence levels to be constant over the cycle. Sensor data in the varying volume space showed a large increase in heat flux, probably due to turbulence, during the expansion stroke.

Risk of defeats in the central nervous system during deep space missions.

PubMed

Kokhan, Viktor S; Matveeva, Marina I; Mukhametov, Azat; Shtemberg, Andrey S

2016-12-01

Space flight factors (SFF) significantly affect the operating activity of astronauts during deep space missions. Gravitational overloads, hypo-magnetic field and ionizing radiation are the main SFF that perturb the normal activity of the central nervous system (CNS). Acute and chronic CNS risks include alterations in cognitive abilities, reduction of motor functions and behavioural changes. Multiple experimental works have been devoted to the SFF effects on integrative functional activity of the brain; however, the model parameters utilized have not always been ideal and consistent. Even less is known regarding the combined effects of these SFF in a real interplanetary mission, for example to Mars. Our review aims to systemize and analyse the last advancements in astrobiology, with a focus on the combined effects of SFF; as well as to discuss on unification of the parameters for ground-based models of deep space missions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian state-space formulation of dynamic occupancy models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Kery, M.

2007-01-01

Species occurrence and its dynamic components, extinction and colonization probabilities, are focal quantities in biogeography and metapopulation biology, and for species conservation assessments. It has been increasingly appreciated that these parameters must be estimated separately from detection probability to avoid the biases induced by nondetection error. Hence, there is now considerable theoretical and practical interest in dynamic occupancy models that contain explicit representations of metapopulation dynamics such as extinction, colonization, and turnover as well as growth rates. We describe a hierarchical parameterization of these models that is analogous to the state-space formulation of models in time series, where the model is represented by two components, one for the partially observable occupancy process and another for the observations conditional on that process. This parameterization naturally allows estimation of all parameters of the conventional approach to occupancy models, but in addition, yields great flexibility and extensibility, e.g., to modeling heterogeneity or latent structure in model parameters. We also highlight the important distinction between population and finite sample inference; the latter yields much more precise estimates for the particular sample at hand. Finite sample estimates can easily be obtained using the state-space representation of the model but are difficult to obtain under the conventional approach of likelihood-based estimation. We use R and Win BUGS to apply the model to two examples. In a standard analysis for the European Crossbill in a large Swiss monitoring program, we fit a model with year-specific parameters. Estimates of the dynamic parameters varied greatly among years, highlighting the irruptive population dynamics of that species. In the second example, we analyze route occupancy of Cerulean Warblers in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) using a model allowing for site-specific heterogeneity in model parameters. The results indicate relatively low turnover and a stable distribution of Cerulean Warblers which is in contrast to analyses of counts of individuals from the same survey that indicate important declines. This discrepancy illustrates the inertia in occupancy relative to actual abundance. Furthermore, the model reveals a declining patch survival probability, and increasing turnover, toward the edge of the range of the species, which is consistent with metapopulation perspectives on the genesis of range edges. Given detection/non-detection data, dynamic occupancy models as described here have considerable potential for the study of distributions and range dynamics.

Application of separable parameter space techniques to multi-tracer PET compartment modeling

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jeff L; Morey, A Michael; Kadrmas, Dan J

2016-01-01

Multi-tracer positron emission tomography (PET) can image two or more tracers in a single scan, characterizing multiple aspects of biological functions to provide new insights into many diseases. The technique uses dynamic imaging, resulting in time-activity curves that contain contributions from each tracer present. The process of separating and recovering separate images and/or imaging measures for each tracer requires the application of kinetic constraints, which are most commonly applied by fitting parallel compartment models for all tracers. Such multi-tracer compartment modeling presents challenging nonlinear fits in multiple dimensions. This work extends separable parameter space kinetic modeling techniques, previously developed for fitting single-tracer compartment models, to fitting multi-tracer compartment models. The multi-tracer compartment model solution equations were reformulated to maximally separate the linear and nonlinear aspects of the fitting problem, and separable least-squares techniques were applied to effectively reduce the dimensionality of the nonlinear fit. The benefits of the approach are then explored through a number of illustrative examples, including characterization of separable parameter space multi-tracer objective functions and demonstration of exhaustive search fits which guarantee the true global minimum to within arbitrary search precision. Iterative gradient-descent algorithms using Levenberg–Marquardt were also tested, demonstrating improved fitting speed and robustness as compared to corresponding fits using conventional model formulations. The proposed technique overcomes many of the challenges in fitting simultaneous multi-tracer PET compartment models. PMID:26788888

Exploring short-GRB afterglow parameter space for observations in coincidence with gravitational waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleem, M.; Resmi, L.; Misra, Kuntal; Pai, Archana; Arun, K. G.

2018-03-01

Short duration Gamma Ray Bursts (SGRB) and their afterglows are among the most promising electromagnetic (EM) counterparts of Neutron Star (NS) mergers. The afterglow emission is broad-band, visible across the entire electromagnetic window from γ-ray to radio frequencies. The flux evolution in these frequencies is sensitive to the multidimensional afterglow physical parameter space. Observations of gravitational wave (GW) from BNS mergers in spatial and temporal coincidence with SGRB and associated afterglows can provide valuable constraints on afterglow physics. We run simulations of GW-detected BNS events and assuming that all of them are associated with a GRB jet which also produces an afterglow, investigate how detections or non-detections in X-ray, optical and radio frequencies can be influenced by the parameter space. We narrow down the regions of afterglow parameter space for a uniform top-hat jet model, which would result in different detection scenarios. We list inferences which can be drawn on the physics of GRB afterglows from multimessenger astronomy with coincident GW-EM observations.

Correlation and agreement of a digital and conventional method to measure arch parameters.

PubMed

Nawi, Nes; Mohamed, Alizae Marny; Marizan Nor, Murshida; Ashar, Nor Atika

2018-01-01

The aim of the present study was to determine the overall reliability and validity of arch parameters measured digitally compared to conventional measurement. A sample of 111 plaster study models of Down syndrome (DS) patients were digitized using a blue light three-dimensional (3D) scanner. Digital and manual measurements of defined parameters were performed using Geomagic analysis software (Geomagic Studio 2014 software, 3D Systems, Rock Hill, SC, USA) on digital models and with a digital calliper (Tuten, Germany) on plaster study models. Both measurements were repeated twice to validate the intraexaminer reliability based on intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) using the independent t test and Pearson's correlation, respectively. The Bland-Altman method of analysis was used to evaluate the agreement of the measurement between the digital and plaster models. No statistically significant differences (p > 0.05) were found between the manual and digital methods when measuring the arch width, arch length, and space analysis. In addition, all parameters showed a significant correlation coefficient (r ≥ 0.972; p < 0.01) between all digital and manual measurements. Furthermore, a positive agreement between digital and manual measurements of the arch width (90-96%), arch length and space analysis (95-99%) were also distinguished using the Bland-Altman method. These results demonstrate that 3D blue light scanning and measurement software are able to precisely produce 3D digital model and measure arch width, arch length, and space analysis. The 3D digital model is valid to be used in various clinical applications.

Optics Program Simplifies Analysis and Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

Engineers at Goddard Space Flight Center partnered with software experts at Mide Technology Corporation, of Medford, Massachusetts, through a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract to design the Disturbance-Optics-Controls-Structures (DOCS) Toolbox, a software suite for performing integrated modeling for multidisciplinary analysis and design. The DOCS Toolbox integrates various discipline models into a coupled process math model that can then predict system performance as a function of subsystem design parameters. The system can be optimized for performance; design parameters can be traded; parameter uncertainties can be propagated through the math model to develop error bounds on system predictions; and the model can be updated, based on component, subsystem, or system level data. The Toolbox also allows the definition of process parameters as explicit functions of the coupled model and includes a number of functions that analyze the coupled system model and provide for redesign. The product is being sold commercially by Nightsky Systems Inc., of Raleigh, North Carolina, a spinoff company that was formed by Mide specifically to market the DOCS Toolbox. Commercial applications include use by any contractors developing large space-based optical systems, including Lockheed Martin Corporation, The Boeing Company, and Northrup Grumman Corporation, as well as companies providing technical audit services, like General Dynamics Corporation

Patchy screening of the cosmic microwave background by inhomogeneous reionization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gluscevic, Vera; Kamionkowski, Marc; Hanson, Duncan

2013-02-01

We derive a constraint on patchy screening of the cosmic microwave background from inhomogeneous reionization using off-diagonal TB and TT correlations in WMAP-7 temperature/polarization data. We interpret this as a constraint on the rms optical-depth fluctuation Δτ as a function of a coherence multipole LC. We relate these parameters to a comoving coherence scale, of bubble size RC, in a phenomenological model where reionization is instantaneous but occurs on a crinkly surface, and also to the bubble size in a model of “Swiss cheese” reionization where bubbles of fixed size are spread over some range of redshifts. The current WMAP data are still too weak, by several orders of magnitude, to constrain reasonable models, but forthcoming Planck and future EPIC data should begin to approach interesting regimes of parameter space. We also present constraints on the parameter space imposed by the recent results from the EDGES experiment.

Phase space analysis for anisotropic universe with nonlinear bulk viscosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, M.; Mumtaz, Saadia

2018-06-01

In this paper, we discuss phase space analysis of locally rotationally symmetric Bianchi type I universe model by taking a noninteracting mixture of dust like and viscous radiation like fluid whose viscous pressure satisfies a nonlinear version of the Israel-Stewart transport equation. An autonomous system of equations is established by defining normalized dimensionless variables. In order to investigate stability of the system, we evaluate corresponding critical points for different values of the parameters. We also compute power-law scale factor whose behavior indicates different phases of the universe model. It is found that our analysis does not provide a complete immune from fine-tuning because the exponentially expanding solution occurs only for a particular range of parameters. We conclude that stable solutions exist in the presence of nonlinear model for bulk viscosity with different choices of the constant parameter m for anisotropic universe.

Finite frequency shear wave splitting tomography: a model space search approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, P.; Long, M. D.

2017-12-01

Observations of seismic anisotropy provide key constraints on past and present mantle deformation. A common method for upper mantle anisotropy is to measure shear wave splitting parameters (delay time and fast direction). However, the interpretation is not straightforward, because splitting measurements represent an integration of structure along the ray path. A tomographic approach that allows for localization of anisotropy is desirable; however, tomographic inversion for anisotropic structure is a daunting task, since 21 parameters are needed to describe general anisotropy. Such a large parameter space does not allow a straightforward application of tomographic inversion. Building on previous work on finite frequency shear wave splitting tomography, this study aims to develop a framework for SKS splitting tomography with a new parameterization of anisotropy and a model space search approach. We reparameterize the full elastic tensor, reducing the number of parameters to three (a measure of strength based on symmetry considerations for olivine, plus the dip and azimuth of the fast symmetry axis). We compute Born-approximation finite frequency sensitivity kernels relating model perturbations to splitting intensity observations. The strong dependence of the sensitivity kernels on the starting anisotropic model, and thus the strong non-linearity of the inverse problem, makes a linearized inversion infeasible. Therefore, we implement a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique in the inversion procedure. We have performed tests with synthetic data sets to evaluate computational costs and infer the resolving power of our algorithm for synthetic models with multiple anisotropic layers. Our technique can resolve anisotropic parameters on length scales of ˜50 km for realistic station and event configurations for dense broadband experiments. We are proceeding towards applications to real data sets, with an initial focus on the High Lava Plains of Oregon.

Models and applications for space weather forecasting and analysis at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, Maria

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) was established at the dawn of the new millennium as a long-term flexible solution to the problem of transition of progress in space environment modeling to operational space weather forecasting. CCMC hosts an expanding collection of state-of-the-art space weather models developed by the international space science community. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in preparing complex models and model chains for operational environment and developing and maintaining custom displays and powerful web-based systems and tools ready to be used by researchers, space weather service providers and decision makers. In support of space weather needs of NASA users CCMC is developing highly-tailored applications and services that target specific orbits or locations in space and partnering with NASA mission specialists on linking CCMC space environment modeling with impacts on biological and technological systems in space. Confidence assessment of model predictions is an essential element of space environment modeling. CCMC facilitates interaction between model owners and users in defining physical parameters and metrics formats relevant to specific applications and leads community efforts to quantify models ability to simulate and predict space environment events. Interactive on-line model validation systems developed at CCMC make validation a seamless part of model development circle. The talk will showcase innovative solutions for space weather research, validation, anomaly analysis and forecasting and review on-going community-wide model validation initiatives enabled by CCMC applications.

Plausible combinations: An improved method to evaluate the covariate structure of Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2013-01-01

Mark-recapture models are extensively used in quantitative population ecology, providing estimates of population vital rates, such as survival, that are difficult to obtain using other methods. Vital rates are commonly modeled as functions of explanatory covariates, adding considerable flexibility to mark-recapture models, but also increasing the subjectivity and complexity of the modeling process. Consequently, model selection and the evaluation of covariate structure remain critical aspects of mark-recapture modeling. The difficulties involved in model selection are compounded in Cormack-Jolly- Seber models because they are composed of separate sub-models for survival and recapture probabilities, which are conceptualized independently even though their parameters are not statistically independent. The construction of models as combinations of sub-models, together with multiple potential covariates, can lead to a large model set. Although desirable, estimation of the parameters of all models may not be feasible. Strategies to search a model space and base inference on a subset of all models exist and enjoy widespread use. However, even though the methods used to search a model space can be expected to influence parameter estimation, the assessment of covariate importance, and therefore the ecological interpretation of the modeling results, the performance of these strategies has received limited investigation. We present a new strategy for searching the space of a candidate set of Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and explore its performance relative to existing strategies using computer simulation. The new strategy provides an improved assessment of the importance of covariates and covariate combinations used to model survival and recapture probabilities, while requiring only a modest increase in the number of models on which inference is based in comparison to existing techniques.

Improved parameter inference in catchment models: 1. Evaluating parameter uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuczera, George

1983-10-01

A Bayesian methodology is developed to evaluate parameter uncertainty in catchment models fitted to a hydrologic response such as runoff, the goal being to improve the chance of successful regionalization. The catchment model is posed as a nonlinear regression model with stochastic errors possibly being both autocorrelated and heteroscedastic. The end result of this methodology, which may use Box-Cox power transformations and ARMA error models, is the posterior distribution, which summarizes what is known about the catchment model parameters. This can be simplified to a multivariate normal provided a linearization in parameter space is acceptable; means of checking and improving this assumption are discussed. The posterior standard deviations give a direct measure of parameter uncertainty, and study of the posterior correlation matrix can indicate what kinds of data are required to improve the precision of poorly determined parameters. Finally, a case study involving a nine-parameter catchment model fitted to monthly runoff and soil moisture data is presented. It is shown that use of ordinary least squares when its underlying error assumptions are violated gives an erroneous description of parameter uncertainty.

Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction: A Monte Carlo approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yifan; Sun, Yong; Mathew, Joseph; Wolff, Rodney; Ma, Lin

2011-01-01

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.

Two statistics for evaluating parameter identifiability and error reduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doherty, John; Hunt, Randall J.

2009-01-01

Two statistics are presented that can be used to rank input parameters utilized by a model in terms of their relative identifiability based on a given or possible future calibration dataset. Identifiability is defined here as the capability of model calibration to constrain parameters used by a model. Both statistics require that the sensitivity of each model parameter be calculated for each model output for which there are actual or presumed field measurements. Singular value decomposition (SVD) of the weighted sensitivity matrix is then undertaken to quantify the relation between the parameters and observations that, in turn, allows selection of calibration solution and null spaces spanned by unit orthogonal vectors. The first statistic presented, "parameter identifiability", is quantitatively defined as the direction cosine between a parameter and its projection onto the calibration solution space. This varies between zero and one, with zero indicating complete non-identifiability and one indicating complete identifiability. The second statistic, "relative error reduction", indicates the extent to which the calibration process reduces error in estimation of a parameter from its pre-calibration level where its value must be assigned purely on the basis of prior expert knowledge. This is more sophisticated than identifiability, in that it takes greater account of the noise associated with the calibration dataset. Like identifiability, it has a maximum value of one (which can only be achieved if there is no measurement noise). Conceptually it can fall to zero; and even below zero if a calibration problem is poorly posed. An example, based on a coupled groundwater/surface-water model, is included that demonstrates the utility of the statistics. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Mapping the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder parametrization onto physical dark energy Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherrer, Robert J.

2015-08-01

We examine the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) parametrization, in the context of quintessence and barotropic dark energy models, to determine the subset of such models to which it can provide a good fit. The CPL parametrization gives the equation of state parameter w for the dark energy as a linear function of the scale factor a , namely w =w0+wa(1 -a ). In the case of quintessence models, we find that over most of the w0, wa parameter space the CPL parametrization maps onto a fairly narrow form of behavior for the potential V (ϕ ), while a one-dimensional subset of parameter space, for which wa=κ (1 +w0) , with κ constant, corresponds to a wide range of functional forms for V (ϕ ). For barotropic models, we show that the functional dependence of the pressure on the density, up to a multiplicative constant, depends only on wi=wa+w0 and not on w0 and wa separately. Our results suggest that the CPL parametrization may not be optimal for testing either type of model.

Efficacy of various side-to-side toothbrushes and impact of brushing parameters on noncontact biofilm removal in an interdental space model.

PubMed

Schmidt, Julia C; Astasov-Frauenhoffer, Monika; Waltimo, Tuomas; Weiger, Roland; Walter, Clemens

2017-06-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of four different side-to-side toothbrushes and the impact of various brushing parameters on noncontact biofilm removal in an adjustable interdental space model. A three-species biofilm, consisting of Porphyromonas gingivalis, Fusobacterium nucleatum, and Streptococcus sanguinis, was formed in vitro on protein-coated titanium disks using a flow chamber combined with a static biofilm growth model. Subsequently, the biofilm-coated disks were exposed to four different powered toothbrushes (A, B, C, D). The parameters distance (0 and 1 mm), brushing time (2, 4, and 6 s), interdental space width (1, 2, and 3 mm), and toothbrush angulation (45° and 90°) were tested. The biofilm volumes were determined using volumetric analyses with confocal laser scanning microscope (Zeiss LSM700) images and Imaris version 7.7.2 software. The median percentages of simulated interdental biofilm reduction by the tested toothbrushes ranged from 7 to 64 %. The abilities of the analyzed toothbrushes to reduce the in vitro biofilm differed significantly (p < 0.05). Three of the tested toothbrushes (A, B, C) were able to significantly reduce a simulated interdental biofilm by noncontact brushing (p ≤ 0.005). The brushing parameters and their combinations tested in the experiments revealed only minor effects on in vitro interdental biofilm reduction (p > 0.05). A three-species in vitro biofilm could be altered by noncontact brushing with toothbrushes A, B, and C in an artificial interdental space model. Certain side-to-side toothbrushes demonstrate in vitro a high efficacy in interdental biofilm removal without bristle-to-biofilm contact.

Real-Time Parameter Estimation in the Frequency Domain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.

2000-01-01

A method for real-time estimation of parameters in a linear dynamic state-space model was developed and studied. The application is aircraft dynamic model parameter estimation from measured data in flight. Equation error in the frequency domain was used with a recursive Fourier transform for the real-time data analysis. Linear and nonlinear simulation examples and flight test data from the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle were used to demonstrate that the technique produces accurate model parameter estimates with appropriate error bounds. Parameter estimates converged in less than one cycle of the dominant dynamic mode, using no a priori information, with control surface inputs measured in flight during ordinary piloted maneuvers. The real-time parameter estimation method has low computational requirements and could be implemented

Remote control circuit breaker evaluation testing. [for space shuttles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bemko, L. M.

1974-01-01

Engineering evaluation tests were performed on several models/types of remote control circuit breakers marketed in an attempt to gain some insight into their potential suitability for use on the space shuttle vehicle. Tests included the measurement of several electrical and operational performance parameters under laboratory ambient, space simulation, acceleration and vibration environmental conditions.

Very low scale Coleman-Weinberg inflation with nonminimal coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneta, Kunio; Seto, Osamu; Takahashi, Ryo

2018-03-01

We study viable small-field Coleman-Weinberg (CW) inflation models with the help of nonminimal coupling to gravity. The simplest small-field CW inflation model (with a low-scale potential minimum) is incompatible with the cosmological constraint on the scalar spectral index. However, there are possibilities to make the model realistic. First, we revisit the CW inflation model supplemented with a linear potential term. We next consider the CW inflation model with a logarithmic nonminimal coupling and illustrate that the model can open a new viable parameter space that includes the model with a linear potential term. We also show parameter spaces where the Hubble scale during the inflation can be as small as 10-4 GeV , 1 GeV, 1 04 GeV , and 1 08 GeV for the number of e -folds of 40, 45, 50, and 55, respectively, with other cosmological constraints being satisfied.

Effective Hubbard model for Helium atoms adsorbed on a graphite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motoyama, Yuichi; Masaki-Kato, Akiko; Kawashima, Naoki

Helium atoms adsorbed on a graphite is a two-dimensional strongly correlated quantum system and it has been an attractive subject of research for a long time. A helium atom feels Lennard-Jones like potential (Aziz potential) from another one and corrugated potential from the graphite. Therefore, this system may be described by a hardcore Bose Hubbard model with the nearest neighbor repulsion on the triangular lattice, which is the dual lattice of the honeycomb lattice formed by carbons. A Hubbard model is easier to simulate than the original problem in continuous space, but we need to know the model parameters of the effective model, hopping constant t and interaction V. In this presentation, we will present an estimation of the model parameters from ab initio quantum Monte Carlo calculation in continuous space in addition to results of quantum Monte Carlo simulation for an obtained discrete model.

Model-Based Thermal System Design Optimization for the James Webb Space Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cataldo, Giuseppe; Niedner, Malcolm B.; Fixsen, Dale J.; Moseley, Samuel H.

2017-01-01

Spacecraft thermal model validation is normally performed by comparing model predictions with thermal test data and reducing their discrepancies to meet the mission requirements. Based on thermal engineering expertise, the model input parameters are adjusted to tune the model output response to the test data. The end result is not guaranteed to be the best solution in terms of reduced discrepancy and the process requires months to complete. A model-based methodology was developed to perform the validation process in a fully automated fashion and provide mathematical bases to the search for the optimal parameter set that minimizes the discrepancies between model and data. The methodology was successfully applied to several thermal subsystems of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Global or quasiglobal optimal solutions were found and the total execution time of the model validation process was reduced to about two weeks. The model sensitivities to the parameters, which are required to solve the optimization problem, can be calculated automatically before the test begins and provide a library for sensitivity studies. This methodology represents a crucial commodity when testing complex, large-scale systems under time and budget constraints. Here, results for the JWST Core thermal system will be presented in detail.

Model-based thermal system design optimization for the James Webb Space Telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cataldo, Giuseppe; Niedner, Malcolm B.; Fixsen, Dale J.; Moseley, Samuel H.

2017-10-01

Spacecraft thermal model validation is normally performed by comparing model predictions with thermal test data and reducing their discrepancies to meet the mission requirements. Based on thermal engineering expertise, the model input parameters are adjusted to tune the model output response to the test data. The end result is not guaranteed to be the best solution in terms of reduced discrepancy and the process requires months to complete. A model-based methodology was developed to perform the validation process in a fully automated fashion and provide mathematical bases to the search for the optimal parameter set that minimizes the discrepancies between model and data. The methodology was successfully applied to several thermal subsystems of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Global or quasiglobal optimal solutions were found and the total execution time of the model validation process was reduced to about two weeks. The model sensitivities to the parameters, which are required to solve the optimization problem, can be calculated automatically before the test begins and provide a library for sensitivity studies. This methodology represents a crucial commodity when testing complex, large-scale systems under time and budget constraints. Here, results for the JWST Core thermal system will be presented in detail.

A Transportation Model for a Space Colonization and Manufacturing System: A Q-GERT Simulation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

34 .- •..................................."............ ;,,,=, ; ,, =,..,t , .. =-- j -’ - 24. Heppenheimer , Thomas A . rnLnnies in Space. Harrisburg, Pa...Colonel Thomas D. Clark. Captain John D. Rask, my co-worker on that project, and I developed a simple model for the transportation system during this...K. O’Neill and Thomas A . Heppenhiemer. (An example of a Delphi for a space problem is given in Ref 8.) Some of the parameters needing 78 .* better, or

Continuous state-space representation of a bucket-type rainfall-runoff model: a case study with the GR4 model using state-space GR4 (version 1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Léonard; Thirel, Guillaume; Perrin, Charles

2018-04-01

In many conceptual rainfall-runoff models, the water balance differential equations are not explicitly formulated. These differential equations are solved sequentially by splitting the equations into terms that can be solved analytically with a technique called operator splitting. As a result, only the solutions of the split equations are used to present the different models. This article provides a methodology to make the governing water balance equations of a bucket-type rainfall-runoff model explicit and to solve them continuously. This is done by setting up a comprehensive state-space representation of the model. By representing it in this way, the operator splitting, which makes the structural analysis of the model more complex, could be removed. In this state-space representation, the lag functions (unit hydrographs), which are frequent in rainfall-runoff models and make the resolution of the representation difficult, are first replaced by a so-called Nash cascade and then solved with a robust numerical integration technique. To illustrate this methodology, the GR4J model is taken as an example. The substitution of the unit hydrographs with a Nash cascade, even if it modifies the model behaviour when solved using operator splitting, does not modify it when the state-space representation is solved using an implicit integration technique. Indeed, the flow time series simulated by the new representation of the model are very similar to those simulated by the classic model. The use of a robust numerical technique that approximates a continuous-time model also improves the lag parameter consistency across time steps and provides a more time-consistent model with time-independent parameters.

Clustering fossils in solid inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akhshik, Mohammad, E-mail: m.akhshik@ipm.ir

In solid inflation the single field non-Gaussianity consistency condition is violated. As a result, the long tenor perturbation induces observable clustering fossils in the form of quadrupole anisotropy in large scale structure power spectrum. In this work we revisit the bispectrum analysis for the scalar-scalar-scalar and tensor-scalar-scalar bispectrum for the general parameter space of solid. We consider the parameter space of the model in which the level of non-Gaussianity generated is consistent with the Planck constraints. Specializing to this allowed range of model parameter we calculate the quadrupole anisotropy induced from the long tensor perturbations on the power spectrum ofmore » the scalar perturbations. We argue that the imprints of clustering fossil from primordial gravitational waves on large scale structures can be detected from the future galaxy surveys.« less

Performance analysis of wideband data and television channels. [space shuttle communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geist, J. M.

1975-01-01

Several aspects are discussed of space shuttle communications, including the return link (shuttle-to-ground) relayed through a satellite repeater (TDRS). The repeater exhibits nonlinear amplification and an amplitude-dependent phase shift. Models were developed for various link configurations, and computer simulation programs based on these models are described. Certain analytical results on system performance were also obtained. For the system parameters assumed, the results indicate approximately 1 db degradation relative to a link employing a linear repeater. While this degradation is dependent upon the repeater, filter bandwidths, and modulation parameters used, the programs can accommodate changes to any of these quantities. Thus the programs can be applied to determine the performance with any given set of parameters, or used as an aid in link design.

A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Space-time Variability of Rain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kundu, Prasun K.; Travis, James E.

2013-01-01

Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment.

Toward Rigorous Parameterization of Underconstrained Neural Network Models Through Interactive Visualization and Steering of Connectivity Generation

PubMed Central

Nowke, Christian; Diaz-Pier, Sandra; Weyers, Benjamin; Hentschel, Bernd; Morrison, Abigail; Kuhlen, Torsten W.; Peyser, Alexander

2018-01-01

Simulation models in many scientific fields can have non-unique solutions or unique solutions which can be difficult to find. Moreover, in evolving systems, unique final state solutions can be reached by multiple different trajectories. Neuroscience is no exception. Often, neural network models are subject to parameter fitting to obtain desirable output comparable to experimental data. Parameter fitting without sufficient constraints and a systematic exploration of the possible solution space can lead to conclusions valid only around local minima or around non-minima. To address this issue, we have developed an interactive tool for visualizing and steering parameters in neural network simulation models. In this work, we focus particularly on connectivity generation, since finding suitable connectivity configurations for neural network models constitutes a complex parameter search scenario. The development of the tool has been guided by several use cases—the tool allows researchers to steer the parameters of the connectivity generation during the simulation, thus quickly growing networks composed of multiple populations with a targeted mean activity. The flexibility of the software allows scientists to explore other connectivity and neuron variables apart from the ones presented as use cases. With this tool, we enable an interactive exploration of parameter spaces and a better understanding of neural network models and grapple with the crucial problem of non-unique network solutions and trajectories. In addition, we observe a reduction in turn around times for the assessment of these models, due to interactive visualization while the simulation is computed. PMID:29937723

Parametric modeling of the intervertebral disc space in 3D: application to CT images of the lumbar spine.

PubMed

Korez, Robert; Likar, Boštjan; Pernuš, Franjo; Vrtovec, Tomaž

2014-10-01

Gradual degeneration of intervertebral discs of the lumbar spine is one of the most common causes of low back pain. Although conservative treatment for low back pain may provide relief to most individuals, surgical intervention may be required for individuals with significant continuing symptoms, which is usually performed by replacing the degenerated intervertebral disc with an artificial implant. For designing implants with good bone contact and continuous force distribution, the morphology of the intervertebral disc space and vertebral body endplates is of considerable importance. In this study, we propose a method for parametric modeling of the intervertebral disc space in three dimensions (3D) and show its application to computed tomography (CT) images of the lumbar spine. The initial 3D model of the intervertebral disc space is generated according to the superquadric approach and therefore represented by a truncated elliptical cone, which is initialized by parameters obtained from 3D models of adjacent vertebral bodies. In an optimization procedure, the 3D model of the intervertebral disc space is incrementally deformed by adding parameters that provide a more detailed morphometric description of the observed shape, and aligned to the observed intervertebral disc space in the 3D image. By applying the proposed method to CT images of 20 lumbar spines, the shape and pose of each of the 100 intervertebral disc spaces were represented by a 3D parametric model. The resulting mean (±standard deviation) accuracy of modeling was 1.06±0.98mm in terms of radial Euclidean distance against manually defined ground truth points, with the corresponding success rate of 93% (i.e. 93 out of 100 intervertebral disc spaces were modeled successfully). As the resulting 3D models provide a description of the shape of intervertebral disc spaces in a complete parametric form, morphometric analysis was straightforwardly enabled and allowed the computation of the corresponding heights, widths and volumes, as well as of other geometric features that in detail describe the shape of intervertebral disc spaces. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Failure rate analysis of Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft performance during orbital life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, H. P.; Timmins, A. R.

1976-01-01

Space life performance data on 57 Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft are analyzed from the standpoint of determining an appropriate reliability model and the associated reliability parameters. Data from published NASA reports, which cover the space performance of GSFC spacecraft launched in the 1960-1970 decade, form the basis of the analyses. The results of the analyses show that the time distribution of 449 malfunctions, of which 248 were classified as failures (not necessarily catastrophic), follow a reliability growth pattern that can be described with either the Duane model or a Weibull distribution. The advantages of both mathematical models are used in order to: identify space failure rates, observe chronological trends, and compare failure rates with those experienced during the prelaunch environmental tests of the flight model spacecraft.

Unified tensor model for space-frequency spreading-multiplexing (SFSM) MIMO communication systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Almeida, André LF; Favier, Gérard

2013-12-01

This paper presents a unified tensor model for space-frequency spreading-multiplexing (SFSM) multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) wireless communication systems that combine space- and frequency-domain spreadings, followed by a space-frequency multiplexing. Spreading across space (transmit antennas) and frequency (subcarriers) adds resilience against deep channel fades and provides space and frequency diversities, while orthogonal space-frequency multiplexing enables multi-stream transmission. We adopt a tensor-based formulation for the proposed SFSM MIMO system that incorporates space, frequency, time, and code dimensions by means of the parallel factor model. The developed SFSM tensor model unifies the tensorial formulation of some existing multiple-access/multicarrier MIMO signaling schemes as special cases, while revealing interesting tradeoffs due to combined space, frequency, and time diversities which are of practical relevance for joint symbol-channel-code estimation. The performance of the proposed SFSM MIMO system using either a zero forcing receiver or a semi-blind tensor-based receiver is illustrated by means of computer simulation results under realistic channel and system parameters.

Gap probability - Measurements and models of a pecan orchard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strahler, Alan H.; Li, Xiaowen; Moody, Aaron; Liu, YI

1992-01-01

Measurements and models are compared for gap probability in a pecan orchard. Measurements are based on panoramic photographs of 50* by 135 view angle made under the canopy looking upwards at regular positions along transects between orchard trees. The gap probability model is driven by geometric parameters at two levels-crown and leaf. Crown level parameters include the shape of the crown envelope and spacing of crowns; leaf level parameters include leaf size and shape, leaf area index, and leaf angle, all as functions of canopy position.

Estimation of elastic moduli in a compressible Gibson half-space by inverting Rayleigh-wave phase velocity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xia, J.; Xu, Y.; Miller, R.D.; Chen, C.

2006-01-01

A Gibson half-space model (a non-layered Earth model) has the shear modulus varying linearly with depth in an inhomogeneous elastic half-space. In a half-space of sedimentary granular soil under a geostatic state of initial stress, the density and the Poisson's ratio do not vary considerably with depth. In such an Earth body, the dynamic shear modulus is the parameter that mainly affects the dispersion of propagating waves. We have estimated shear-wave velocities in the compressible Gibson half-space by inverting Rayleigh-wave phase velocities. An analytical dispersion law of Rayleigh-type waves in a compressible Gibson half-space is given in an algebraic form, which makes our inversion process extremely simple and fast. The convergence of the weighted damping solution is guaranteed through selection of the damping factor using the Levenberg-Marquardt method. Calculation efficiency is achieved by reconstructing a weighted damping solution using singular value decomposition techniques. The main advantage of this algorithm is that only three parameters define the compressible Gibson half-space model. Theoretically, to determine the model by the inversion, only three Rayleigh-wave phase velocities at different frequencies are required. This is useful in practice where Rayleigh-wave energy is only developed in a limited frequency range or at certain frequencies as data acquired at manmade structures such as dams and levees. Two real examples are presented and verified by borehole S-wave velocity measurements. The results of these real examples are also compared with the results of the layered-Earth model. ?? Springer 2006.

Computational methods for estimation of parameters in hyperbolic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banks, H. T.; Ito, K.; Murphy, K. A.

1983-01-01

Approximation techniques for estimating spatially varying coefficients and unknown boundary parameters in second order hyperbolic systems are discussed. Methods for state approximation (cubic splines, tau-Legendre) and approximation of function space parameters (interpolatory splines) are outlined and numerical findings for use of the resulting schemes in model "one dimensional seismic inversion' problems are summarized.

Nested Sampling for Bayesian Model Comparison in the Context of Salmonella Disease Dynamics

PubMed Central

Dybowski, Richard; McKinley, Trevelyan J.; Mastroeni, Pietro; Restif, Olivier

2013-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the observed dynamics of complex biological systems requires the statistical assessment and comparison of multiple alternative models. Although this has traditionally been done using maximum likelihood-based methods such as Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian methods have gained in popularity because they provide more informative output in the form of posterior probability distributions. However, comparison between multiple models in a Bayesian framework is made difficult by the computational cost of numerical integration over large parameter spaces. A new, efficient method for the computation of posterior probabilities has recently been proposed and applied to complex problems from the physical sciences. Here we demonstrate how nested sampling can be used for inference and model comparison in biological sciences. We present a reanalysis of data from experimental infection of mice with Salmonella enterica showing the distribution of bacteria in liver cells. In addition to confirming the main finding of the original analysis, which relied on AIC, our approach provides: (a) integration across the parameter space, (b) estimation of the posterior parameter distributions (with visualisations of parameter correlations), and (c) estimation of the posterior predictive distributions for goodness-of-fit assessments of the models. The goodness-of-fit results suggest that alternative mechanistic models and a relaxation of the quasi-stationary assumption should be considered. PMID:24376528

Experimental study and simulation of space charge stimulated discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noskov, M. D.; Malinovski, A. S.; Cooke, C. M.; Wright, K. A.; Schwab, A. J.

2002-11-01

The electrical discharge of volume distributed space charge in poly(methylmethacrylate) (PMMA) has been investigated both experimentally and by computer simulation. The experimental space charge was implanted in dielectric samples by exposure to a monoenergetic electron beam of 3 MeV. Electrical breakdown through the implanted space charge region within the sample was initiated by a local electric field enhancement applied to the sample surface. A stochastic-deterministic dynamic model for electrical discharge was developed and used in a computer simulation of these breakdowns. The model employs stochastic rules to describe the physical growth of the discharge channels, and deterministic laws to describe the electric field, the charge, and energy dynamics within the discharge channels and the dielectric. Simulated spatial-temporal and current characteristics of the expanding discharge structure during physical growth are quantitatively compared with the experimental data to confirm the discharge model. It was found that a single fixed set of physically based dielectric parameter values was adequate to simulate the complete family of experimental space charge discharges in PMMA. It is proposed that such a set of parameters also provides a useful means to quantify the breakdown properties of other dielectrics.

Contraction of electroweak model and neutrino

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gromov, N. A., E-mail: gromov@dm.komisc.ru

The electroweak model, which lepton sector correspond to the contracted gauge group SU(2; j) Multiplication-Sign U(1), j {yields} 0, whereas boson and quark sectors are standard one, is suggested. The field space of the model is fibered under contraction in such a way that neutrino fields are in the fiber and all other fields are in the base. Properties of the fibered field space are understood in context of semi-Riemannian geometry. This model describes in a natural manner why neutrinos so rarely interact with matter, as well as why neutrino cross section increase with the energy. Dimensionfull parameter of themore » model is interpreted as neutrino energy. Dimensionless contraction parameter j at low energy is connected with the Fermi constant of weak interactions and is approximated as j{sup 2} Almost-Equal-To 10{sup -5}.« less

Application of physical parameter identification to finite-element models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bronowicki, Allen J.; Lukich, Michael S.; Kuritz, Steven P.

1987-01-01

The time domain parameter identification method described previously is applied to TRW's Large Space Structure Truss Experiment. Only control sensors and actuators are employed in the test procedure. The fit of the linear structural model to the test data is improved by more than an order of magnitude using a physically reasonable parameter set. The electro-magnetic control actuators are found to contribute significant damping due to a combination of eddy current and back electro-motive force (EMF) effects. Uncertainties in both estimated physical parameters and modal behavior variables are given.

EFFICIENT MODEL-FITTING AND MODEL-COMPARISON FOR HIGH-DIMENSIONAL BAYESIAN GEOSTATISTICAL MODELS. (R826887)

EPA Science Inventory

Geostatistical models are appropriate for spatially distributed data measured at irregularly spaced locations. We propose an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for fitting Bayesian geostatistical models with substantial numbers of unknown parameters to sizable...

Difference-based ridge-type estimator of parameters in restricted partial linear model with correlated errors.

PubMed

Wu, Jibo

2016-01-01

In this article, a generalized difference-based ridge estimator is proposed for the vector parameter in a partial linear model when the errors are dependent. It is supposed that some additional linear constraints may hold to the whole parameter space. Its mean-squared error matrix is compared with the generalized restricted difference-based estimator. Finally, the performance of the new estimator is explained by a simulation study and a numerical example.

The Hyper-Envelope Modeling Interface (HEMI): A Novel Approach Illustrated Through Predicting Tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) Habitat in the Western USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Jim; Young, Nick; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Newman, Greg; Evangelista, Paul; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

Habitat suitability maps are commonly created by modeling a species’ environmental niche from occurrences and environmental characteristics. Here, we introduce the hyper-envelope modeling interface (HEMI), providing a new method for creating habitat suitability models using Bezier surfaces to model a species niche in environmental space. HEMI allows modeled surfaces to be visualized and edited in environmental space based on expert knowledge and does not require absence points for model development. The modeled surfaces require relatively few parameters compared to similar modeling approaches and may produce models that better match ecological niche theory. As a case study, we modeled the invasive species tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) in the western USA. We compare results from HEMI with those from existing similar modeling approaches (including BioClim, BioMapper, and Maxent). We used synthetic surfaces to create visualizations of the various models in environmental space and used modified area under the curve (AUC) statistic and akaike information criterion (AIC) as measures of model performance. We show that HEMI produced slightly better AUC values, except for Maxent and better AIC values overall. HEMI created a model with only ten parameters while Maxent produced a model with over 100 and BioClim used only eight. Additionally, HEMI allowed visualization and editing of the model in environmental space to develop alternative potential habitat scenarios. The use of Bezier surfaces can provide simple models that match our expectations of biological niche models and, at least in some cases, out-perform more complex approaches.

Determination of Global Stability of the Slosh Motion in a Spacecraft via Num Erical Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Ja-Young

2003-12-01

The global stability of the attitude motion of a spin-stabilized space vehicle is investigated by performing numerical experiment. In the previous study, a stationary solution and a particular resonant condition for a given model were found by using analytical method but failed to represent the system stability over parameter values near and off the stationary points. Accordingly, as an extension of the previous work, this study performs numerical experiment to investigate the stability of the system across the parameter space and determines stable and unstable regions of the design parameters of the system.

Quantitative Diagnosis of Continuous-Valued, Stead-State Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouquette, N.

1995-01-01

Quantitative diagnosis involves numerically estimating the values of unobservable parameters that best explain the observed parameter values. We consider quantitative diagnosis for continuous, lumped- parameter, steady-state physical systems because such models are easy to construct and the diagnosis problem is considerably simpler than that for corresponding dynamic models. To further tackle the difficulties of numerically inverting a simulation model to compute a diagnosis, we propose to decompose a physical system model in terms of feedback loops. This decomposition reduces the dimension of the problem and consequently decreases the diagnosis search space. We illustrate this approach on a model of thermal control system studied in earlier research.

Real-time 3-D space numerical shake prediction for earthquake early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Huang, Yandan; Wei, Yongxiang

2017-12-01

In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake prediction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model.

Design Space Approach in Optimization of Fluid Bed Granulation and Tablets Compression Process

PubMed Central

Djuriš, Jelena; Medarević, Djordje; Krstić, Marko; Vasiljević, Ivana; Mašić, Ivana; Ibrić, Svetlana

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to optimize fluid bed granulation and tablets compression processes using design space approach. Type of diluent, binder concentration, temperature during mixing, granulation and drying, spray rate, and atomization pressure were recognized as critical formulation and process parameters. They were varied in the first set of experiments in order to estimate their influences on critical quality attributes, that is, granules characteristics (size distribution, flowability, bulk density, tapped density, Carr's index, Hausner's ratio, and moisture content) using Plackett-Burman experimental design. Type of diluent and atomization pressure were selected as the most important parameters. In the second set of experiments, design space for process parameters (atomization pressure and compression force) and its influence on tablets characteristics was developed. Percent of paracetamol released and tablets hardness were determined as critical quality attributes. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were applied in order to determine design space. ANNs models showed that atomization pressure influences mostly on the dissolution profile, whereas compression force affects mainly the tablets hardness. Based on the obtained ANNs models, it is possible to predict tablet hardness and paracetamol release profile for any combination of analyzed factors. PMID:22919295

Interactive model evaluation tool based on IPython notebook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balemans, Sophie; Van Hoey, Stijn; Nopens, Ingmar; Seuntjes, Piet

2015-04-01

In hydrological modelling, some kind of parameter optimization is mostly performed. This can be the selection of a single best parameter set, a split in behavioural and non-behavioural parameter sets based on a selected threshold or a posterior parameter distribution derived with a formal Bayesian approach. The selection of the criterion to measure the goodness of fit (likelihood or any objective function) is an essential step in all of these methodologies and will affect the final selected parameter subset. Moreover, the discriminative power of the objective function is also dependent from the time period used. In practice, the optimization process is an iterative procedure. As such, in the course of the modelling process, an increasing amount of simulations is performed. However, the information carried by these simulation outputs is not always fully exploited. In this respect, we developed and present an interactive environment that enables the user to intuitively evaluate the model performance. The aim is to explore the parameter space graphically and to visualize the impact of the selected objective function on model behaviour. First, a set of model simulation results is loaded along with the corresponding parameter sets and a data set of the same variable as the model outcome (mostly discharge). The ranges of the loaded parameter sets define the parameter space. A selection of the two parameters visualised can be made by the user. Furthermore, an objective function and a time period of interest need to be selected. Based on this information, a two-dimensional parameter response surface is created, which actually just shows a scatter plot of the parameter combinations and assigns a color scale corresponding with the goodness of fit of each parameter combination. Finally, a slider is available to change the color mapping of the points. Actually, the slider provides a threshold to exclude non behaviour parameter sets and the color scale is only attributed to the remaining parameter sets. As such, by interactively changing the settings and interpreting the graph, the user gains insight in the model structural behaviour. Moreover, a more deliberate choice of objective function and periods of high information content can be identified. The environment is written in an IPython notebook and uses the available interactive functions provided by the IPython community. As such, the power of the IPython notebook as a development environment for scientific computing is illustrated (Shen, 2014).

Sequential Least-Squares Using Orthogonal Transformations. [spacecraft communication/spacecraft tracking-data smoothing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bierman, G. J.

1975-01-01

Square root information estimation, starting from its beginnings in least-squares parameter estimation, is considered. Special attention is devoted to discussions of sensitivity and perturbation matrices, computed solutions and their formal statistics, consider-parameters and consider-covariances, and the effects of a priori statistics. The constant-parameter model is extended to include time-varying parameters and process noise, and the error analysis capabilities are generalized. Efficient and elegant smoothing results are obtained as easy consequences of the filter formulation. The value of the techniques is demonstrated by the navigation results that were obtained for the Mariner Venus-Mercury (Mariner 10) multiple-planetary space probe and for the Viking Mars space mission.

On-Orbit System Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mettler, E.; Milman, M. H.; Bayard, D.; Eldred, D. B.

1987-01-01

Information derived from accelerometer readings benefits important engineering and control functions. Report discusses methodology for detection, identification, and analysis of motions within space station. Techniques of vibration and rotation analyses, control theory, statistics, filter theory, and transform methods integrated to form system for generating models and model parameters that characterize total motion of complicated space station, with respect to both control-induced and random mechanical disturbances.

Closing in on singlet scalar dark matter: LUX, invisible Higgs decays and gamma-ray lines

DOE PAGES

Feng, Lei; Profumo, Stefano; Ubaldi, Lorenzo

2015-03-10

Here, we study the implications of the Higgs discovery and of recent results from dark matter searches on real singlet scalar dark matter. The phenomenology of the model is defined by only two parameters, the singlet scalar mass m S and the quartic coupling a 2 between the SU(2) Higgs and the singlet scalar. We concentrate on the window 5 < m S /GeV < 300. The most dramatic impact on the viable parameter space of the model comes from direct dark matter searches with LUX, and, for very low masses in the few GeV range, from constraints from themore » invisible decay width of the Higgs. In the resonant region the best constraints come from gamma-ray line searches. We show that they leave only a small region of viable parameter space, for dark matter masses within a few percent of half the mass of the Higgs. We demonstrate that direct and indirect dark matter searches (especially the search for monochromatic gamma-ray lines) will play a key role in closing the residual parameter space in the near future.« less

Effects of SO(10)-inspired scalar non-universality on the MSSM parameter space at large tanβ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramage, M. R.

2005-08-01

We analyze the parameter space of the ( μ>0, A=0) CMSSM at large tanβ with a small degree of non-universality originating from D-terms and Higgs-sfermion splitting inspired by SO(10) GUT models. The effects of such non-universalities on the sparticle spectrum and observables such as (, B(b→Xγ), the SUSY threshold corrections to the bottom mass and Ωh are examined in detail and the consequences for the allowed parameter space of the model are investigated. We find that even small deviations to universality can result in large qualitative differences compared to the universal case; for certain values of the parameters, we find, even at low m and m, that radiative electroweak symmetry breaking fails as a consequence of either |<0 or mA2<0. We find particularly large departures from the mSugra case for the neutralino relic density, which is sensitive to significant changes in the position and shape of the A resonance and a substantial increase in the Higgsino component of the LSP. However, we find that the corrections to the bottom mass are not sufficient to allow for Yukawa unification.

Experimental Study on the Perception Characteristics of Haptic Texture by Multidimensional Scaling.

PubMed

Wu, Juan; Li, Na; Liu, Wei; Song, Guangming; Zhang, Jun

2015-01-01

Recent works regarding real texture perception demonstrate that physical factors such as stiffness and spatial period play a fundamental role in texture perception. This research used a multidimensional scaling (MDS) analysis to further characterize and quantify the effects of the simulation parameters on haptic texture rendering and perception. In a pilot experiment, 12 haptic texture samples were generated by using a 3-degrees-of-freedom (3-DOF) force-feedback device with varying spatial period, height, and stiffness coefficient parameter values. The subjects' perceptions of the virtual textures indicate that roughness, denseness, flatness and hardness are distinguishing characteristics of texture. In the main experiment, 19 participants rated the dissimilarities of the textures and estimated the magnitudes of their characteristics. The MDS method was used to recover the underlying perceptual space and reveal the significance of the space from the recorded data. The physical parameters and their combinations have significant effects on the perceptual characteristics. A regression model was used to quantitatively analyze the parameters and their effects on the perceptual characteristics. This paper is to illustrate that haptic texture perception based on force feedback can be modeled in two- or three-dimensional space and provide suggestions on improving perception-based haptic texture rendering.

Population Synthesis of Radio & Gamma-Ray Millisecond Pulsars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, Sara; Gonthier, P. L.; Harding, A. K.

2014-01-01

In recent years, the number of known gamma-ray millisecond pulsars (MSPs) in the Galactic disk has risen substantially thanks to confirmed detections by Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi). We have developed a new population synthesis of gamma-ray and radio MSPs in the galaxy which uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to explore the large and small worlds of the model parameter space and allows for comparisons of the simulated and detected MSP distributions. The simulation employs empirical radio and gamma-ray luminosity models that are dependent upon the pulsar period and period derivative with freely varying exponents. Parameters associated with the birth distributions are also free to vary. The computer code adjusts the magnitudes of the model luminosities to reproduce the number of MSPs detected by a group of ten radio surveys, thus normalizing the simulation and predicting the MSP birth rates in the Galaxy. Computing many Markov chains leads to preferred sets of model parameters that are further explored through two statistical methods. Marginalized plots define confidence regions in the model parameter space using maximum likelihood methods. A secondary set of confidence regions is determined in parallel using Kuiper statistics calculated from comparisons of cumulative distributions. These two techniques provide feedback to affirm the results and to check for consistency. Radio flux and dispersion measure constraints have been imposed on the simulated gamma-ray distributions in order to reproduce realistic detection conditions. The simulated and detected distributions agree well for both sets of radio and gamma-ray pulsar characteristics, as evidenced by our various comparisons.

The bijection from data to parameter space with the standard DEB model quantifies the supply-demand spectrum.

PubMed

Lika, Konstadia; Augustine, Starrlight; Pecquerie, Laure; Kooijman, Sebastiaan A L M

2014-08-07

The standard Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model assumes that food is converted to reserve and a fraction κ of mobilised reserve of an individual is allocated to somatic maintenance plus growth, while the rest is allocated to maturity maintenance plus maturation (in embryos and juveniles) or reproduction (in adults). The add_my_pet collection of over 300 animal species from most larger phyla, and all chordate classes, shows that this model fits energy data very well. Nine parameters determine nine data points at abundant food: dry/wet weight ratio, age at birth, puberty, death, weight at birth, metamorphosis, puberty, ultimate weight and ultimate reproduction rate. We demonstrate that, given a few other parameters, these nine data points also determine the nine parameters uniquely that are independent of food availability: maturity at birth, metamorphosis and puberty, specific assimilation, somatic maintenance and costs for structure, allocation fraction of mobilised reserve to soma, energy conductance, and ageing acceleration. We provide an efficient algorithm for mapping between data and parameter space in both directions and found expressions for the boundaries of the parameter and data spaces. One of them quantifies the position of species in the supply-demand spectrum, which reflects the internalisation of energetic control. We link eco-physiological properties of species to their position in this spectrum and discuss it in the context of homeostasis. Invertebrates and ray-finned fish turn out to be close to the supply end of the spectrum, while other vertebrates, including cartilaginous fish, have stronger demand tendencies. We explain why birds and mammals up-regulate metabolism during reproduction. We study some properties of the bijection using elasticity coefficients. The properties have applications in parameter estimation and in the analysis of evolutionary constraints on parameter values; the relationship between DEB parameters and data has similarities to that between genotype and phenotype. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DUAL STATE-PARAMETER UPDATING SCHEME ON A CONCEPTUAL HYDROLOGIC MODEL USING SEQUENTIAL MONTE CARLO FILTERS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Seong Jin; Tachikawa, Yasuto; Shiiba, Michiharu; Kim, Sunmin

Applications of data assimilation techniques have been widely used to improve upon the predictability of hydrologic modeling. Among various data assimilation techniques, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) filters, known as "particle filters" provide the capability to handle non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. This paper proposes a dual state-parameter updating scheme (DUS) based on SMC methods to estimate both state and parameter variables of a hydrologic model. We introduce a kernel smoothing method for the robust estimation of uncertain model parameters in the DUS. The applicability of the dual updating scheme is illustrated using the implementation of the storage function model on a middle-sized Japanese catchment. We also compare performance results of DUS combined with various SMC methods, such as SIR, ASIR and RPF.

Mixed Poisson distributions in exact solutions of stochastic autoregulation models.

PubMed

Iyer-Biswas, Srividya; Jayaprakash, C

2014-11-01

In this paper we study the interplay between stochastic gene expression and system design using simple stochastic models of autoactivation and autoinhibition. Using the Poisson representation, a technique whose particular usefulness in the context of nonlinear gene regulation models we elucidate, we find exact results for these feedback models in the steady state. Further, we exploit this representation to analyze the parameter spaces of each model, determine which dimensionless combinations of rates are the shape determinants for each distribution, and thus demarcate where in the parameter space qualitatively different behaviors arise. These behaviors include power-law-tailed distributions, bimodal distributions, and sub-Poisson distributions. We also show how these distribution shapes change when the strength of the feedback is tuned. Using our results, we reexamine how well the autoinhibition and autoactivation models serve their conventionally assumed roles as paradigms for noise suppression and noise exploitation, respectively.

Nonlinear ARMA models for the D(st) index and their physical interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vassiliadis, D.; Klimas, A. J.; Baker, D. N.

1996-01-01

Time series models successfully reproduce or predict geomagnetic activity indices from solar wind parameters. A method is presented that converts a type of nonlinear filter, the nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model to the nonlinear damped oscillator physical model. The oscillator parameters, the growth and decay, the oscillation frequencies and the coupling strength to the input are derived from the filter coefficients. Mathematical methods are derived to obtain unique and consistent filter coefficients while keeping the prediction error low. These methods are applied to an oscillator model for the Dst geomagnetic index driven by the solar wind input. A data set is examined in two ways: the model parameters are calculated as averages over short time intervals, and a nonlinear ARMA model is calculated and the model parameters are derived as a function of the phase space.

Emulation: A fast stochastic Bayesian method to eliminate model space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Alan; Hobbs, Richard; Goldstein, Michael

2010-05-01

Joint inversion of large 3D datasets has been the goal of geophysicists ever since the datasets first started to be produced. There are two broad approaches to this kind of problem, traditional deterministic inversion schemes and more recently developed Bayesian search methods, such as MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo). However, using both these kinds of schemes has proved prohibitively expensive, both in computing power and time cost, due to the normally very large model space which needs to be searched using forward model simulators which take considerable time to run. At the heart of strategies aimed at accomplishing this kind of inversion is the question of how to reliably and practicably reduce the size of the model space in which the inversion is to be carried out. Here we present a practical Bayesian method, known as emulation, which can address this issue. Emulation is a Bayesian technique used with considerable success in a number of technical fields, such as in astronomy, where the evolution of the universe has been modelled using this technique, and in the petroleum industry where history matching is carried out of hydrocarbon reservoirs. The method of emulation involves building a fast-to-compute uncertainty-calibrated approximation to a forward model simulator. We do this by modelling the output data from a number of forward simulator runs by a computationally cheap function, and then fitting the coefficients defining this function to the model parameters. By calibrating the error of the emulator output with respect to the full simulator output, we can use this to screen out large areas of model space which contain only implausible models. For example, starting with what may be considered a geologically reasonable prior model space of 10000 models, using the emulator we can quickly show that only models which lie within 10% of that model space actually produce output data which is plausibly similar in character to an observed dataset. We can thus much more tightly constrain the input model space for a deterministic inversion or MCMC method. By using this technique jointly on several datasets (specifically seismic, gravity, and magnetotelluric (MT) describing the same region), we can include in our modelling uncertainties in the data measurements, the relationships between the various physical parameters involved, as well as the model representation uncertainty, and at the same time further reduce the range of plausible models to several percent of the original model space. Being stochastic in nature, the output posterior parameter distributions also allow our understanding of/beliefs about a geological region can be objectively updated, with full assessment of uncertainties, and so the emulator is also an inversion-type tool in it's own right, with the advantage (as with any Bayesian method) that our uncertainties from all sources (both data and model) can be fully evaluated.

Supersymmetry Breaking, Gauge Mediation, and the LHC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shih, David

2015-04-14

Gauge mediated SUSY breaking (GMSB) is a promising class of supersymmetric models that automatically satisfies the precision constraints. Prior work of Meade, Seiberg and Shih in 2008 established the full, model-independent parameter space of GMSB, which they called "General Gauge Mediation" (GGM). During the first half of 2010-2015, Shih and his collaborators thoroughly explored the parameter space of GGM and established many well-motivated benchmark models for use by the experimentalists at the LHC. Through their work, the current constraints on GGM from LEP, the Tevatron and the LHC were fully elucidated, together with the possible collider signatures of GMSB atmore » the LHC. This ensured that the full discovery potential for GGM could be completely realized at the LHC.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hektor, Andi; Marzola, Luca; Institute of Physics, University of Tartu,Ravila 14c, 50411 Tartu

Motivated by the recent indications for a 750 GeV resonance in the di-photon final state at the LHC, in this work we analyse the compatibility of the excess with the broad photon excess detected at the Galactic Centre. Intriguingly, by analysing the parameter space of an effective models where a 750 GeV pseudoscalar particles mediates the interaction between the Standard Model and a scalar dark sector, we prove the compatibility of the two signals. We show, however, that the LHC mono-jet searches and the Fermi LAT measurements strongly limit the viable parameter space. We comment on the possible impact ofmore » cosmic antiproton flux measurement by the AMS-02 experiment.« less

Exploring the hyperchargeless Higgs triplet model up to the Planck scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Najimuddin

2018-04-01

We examine an extension of the SM Higgs sector by a Higgs triplet taking into consideration the discovery of a Higgs-like particle at the LHC with mass around 125 GeV. We evaluate the bounds on the scalar potential through the unitarity of the scattering matrix. Considering the cases with and without Z_2-symmetry of the extra triplet, we derive constraints on the parameter space. We identify the region of the parameter space that corresponds to the stability and metastability of the electroweak vacuum. We also show that at large field values the scalar potential of this model is suitable to explain inflation.

Search for scalar dark matter via pseudoscalar portal interactions in light of the Galactic Center gamma-ray excess

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Kwei-Chou

2018-01-01

In light of the observed Galactic center gamma-ray excess, we investigate a simplified model, for which the scalar dark matter interacts with quarks through a pseudoscalar mediator. The viable regions of the parameter space, that can also account for the relic density and evade the current searches, are identified, if the low-velocity dark matter annihilates through an s -channel off shell mediator mostly into b ¯b , and/or annihilates directly into two hidden on shell mediators, which subsequently decay into the quark pairs. These two kinds of annihilations are s wave. The projected monojet limit set by the high luminosity LHC sensitivity could constrain the favored parameter space, where the mediator's mass is larger than the dark matter mass by a factor of 2. We show that the projected sensitivity of 15-year Fermi-LAT observations of dwarf spheroidal galaxies can provide a stringent constraint on the most parameter space allowed in this model. If the on shell mediator channel contributes to the dark matter annihilation cross sections over 50%, this model with a lighter mediator can be probed in the projected PICO-500L experiment.

An improved parameter estimation and comparison for soft tissue constitutive models containing an exponential function.

PubMed

Aggarwal, Ankush

2017-08-01

Motivated by the well-known result that stiffness of soft tissue is proportional to the stress, many of the constitutive laws for soft tissues contain an exponential function. In this work, we analyze properties of the exponential function and how it affects the estimation and comparison of elastic parameters for soft tissues. In particular, we find that as a consequence of the exponential function there are lines of high covariance in the elastic parameter space. As a result, one can have widely varying mechanical parameters defining the tissue stiffness but similar effective stress-strain responses. Drawing from elementary algebra, we propose simple changes in the norm and the parameter space, which significantly improve the convergence of parameter estimation and robustness in the presence of noise. More importantly, we demonstrate that these changes improve the conditioning of the problem and provide a more robust solution in the case of heterogeneous material by reducing the chances of getting trapped in a local minima. Based upon the new insight, we also propose a transformed parameter space which will allow for rational parameter comparison and avoid misleading conclusions regarding soft tissue mechanics.

2D data-space cross-gradient joint inversion of MT, gravity and magnetic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pak, Yong-Chol; Li, Tonglin; Kim, Gang-Sop

2017-08-01

We have developed a data-space multiple cross-gradient joint inversion algorithm, and validated it through synthetic tests and applied it to magnetotelluric (MT), gravity and magnetic datasets acquired along a 95 km profile in Benxi-Ji'an area of northeastern China. To begin, we discuss a generalized cross-gradient joint inversion for multiple datasets and model parameters sets, and formulate it in data space. The Lagrange multiplier required for the structural coupling in the data-space method is determined using an iterative solver to avoid calculation of the inverse matrix in solving the large system of equations. Next, using model-space and data-space methods, we inverted the synthetic data and field data. Based on our result, the joint inversion in data-space not only delineates geological bodies more clearly than the separate inversion, but also yields nearly equal results with the one in model-space while consuming much less memory.

Space Shuttle and Space Station Radio Frequency (RF) Exposure Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hwu, Shian U.; Loh, Yin-Chung; Sham, Catherine C.; Kroll, Quin D.

2005-01-01

This paper outlines the modeling techniques and important parameters to define a rigorous but practical procedure that can verify the compliance of RF exposure to the NASA standards for astronauts and electronic equipment. The electromagnetic modeling techniques are applied to analyze RF exposure in Space Shuttle and Space Station environments with reasonable computing time and resources. The modeling techniques are capable of taking into account the field interactions with Space Shuttle and Space Station structures. The obtained results illustrate the multipath effects due to the presence of the space vehicle structures. It's necessary to include the field interactions with the space vehicle in the analysis for an accurate assessment of the RF exposure. Based on the obtained results, the RF keep out zones are identified for appropriate operational scenarios, flight rules and necessary RF transmitter constraints to ensure a safe operating environment and mission success.

Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris

DOEpatents

Nikolaev, Sergei; De Vries, Willem H.; Henderson, John R.; Horsley, Matthew A.; Jiang, Ming; Levatin, Joanne L.; Olivier, Scot S.; Pertica, Alexander J.; Phillion, Donald W.; Springer, Harry K.

2017-03-07

A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.

Cosmological constraints on extended Galileon models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Felice, Antonio De; Tsujikawa, Shinji, E-mail: antoniod@nu.ac.th, E-mail: shinji@rs.kagu.tus.ac.jp

2012-03-01

The extended Galileon models possess tracker solutions with de Sitter attractors along which the dark energy equation of state is constant during the matter-dominated epoch, i.e. w{sub DE} = −1−s, where s is a positive constant. Even with this phantom equation of state there are viable parameter spaces in which the ghosts and Laplacian instabilities are absent. Using the observational data of the supernovae type Ia, the cosmic microwave background (CMB), and baryon acoustic oscillations, we place constraints on the tracker solutions at the background level and find that the parameter s is constrained to be s = 0.034{sub −0.034}{supmore » +0.327} (95 % CL) in the flat Universe. In order to break the degeneracy between the models we also study the evolution of cosmological density perturbations relevant to the large-scale structure (LSS) and the Integrated-Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect in CMB. We show that, depending on the model parameters, the LSS and the ISW effect is either positively or negatively correlated. It is then possible to constrain viable parameter spaces further from the observational data of the ISW-LSS cross-correlation as well as from the matter power spectrum.« less

Virtual walks in spin space: A study in a family of two-parameter models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullick, Pratik; Sen, Parongama

2018-05-01

We investigate the dynamics of classical spins mapped as walkers in a virtual "spin" space using a generalized two-parameter family of spin models characterized by parameters y and z [de Oliveira et al., J. Phys. A 26, 2317 (1993), 10.1088/0305-4470/26/10/006]. The behavior of S (x ,t ) , the probability that the walker is at position x at time t , is studied in detail. In general S (x ,t ) ˜t-αf (x /tα) with α ≃1 or 0.5 at large times depending on the parameters. In particular, S (x ,t ) for the point y =1 ,z =0.5 corresponding to the Voter model shows a crossover in time; associated with this crossover, two timescales can be defined which vary with the system size L as L2logL . We also show that as the Voter model point is approached from the disordered regions along different directions, the width of the Gaussian distribution S (x ,t ) diverges in a power law manner with different exponents. For the majority Voter case, the results indicate that the the virtual walk can detect the phase transition perhaps more efficiently compared to other nonequilibrium methods.

A SLAM II simulation model for analyzing space station mission processing requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linton, D. G.

1985-01-01

Space station mission processing is modeled via the SLAM 2 simulation language on an IBM 4381 mainframe and an IBM PC microcomputer with 620K RAM, two double-sided disk drives and an 8087 coprocessor chip. Using a time phased mission (payload) schedule and parameters associated with the mission, orbiter (space shuttle) and ground facility databases, estimates for ground facility utilization are computed. Simulation output associated with the science and applications database is used to assess alternative mission schedules.

Enhanced methods for determining operational capabilities and support costs of proposed space systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ebeling, Charles

1993-01-01

This report documents the work accomplished during the first two years of research to provide support to NASA in predicting operational and support parameters and costs of proposed space systems. The first year's research developed a methodology for deriving reliability and maintainability (R & M) parameters based upon the use of regression analysis to establish empirical relationships between performance and design specifications and corresponding mean times of failure and repair. The second year focused on enhancements to the methodology, increased scope of the model, and software improvements. This follow-on effort expands the prediction of R & M parameters and their effect on the operations and support of space transportation vehicles to include other system components such as booster rockets and external fuel tanks. It also increases the scope of the methodology and the capabilities of the model as implemented by the software. The focus is on the failure and repair of major subsystems and their impact on vehicle reliability, turn times, maintenance manpower, and repairable spares requirements. The report documents the data utilized in this study, outlines the general methodology for estimating and relating R&M parameters, presents the analyses and results of application to the initial data base, and describes the implementation of the methodology through the use of a computer model. The report concludes with a discussion on validation and a summary of the research findings and results.

Direct Parametric Image Reconstruction in Reduced Parameter Space for Rapid Multi-Tracer PET Imaging.

PubMed

Cheng, Xiaoyin; Li, Zhoulei; Liu, Zhen; Navab, Nassir; Huang, Sung-Cheng; Keller, Ulrich; Ziegler, Sibylle; Shi, Kuangyu

2015-02-12

The separation of multiple PET tracers within an overlapping scan based on intrinsic differences of tracer pharmacokinetics is challenging, due to limited signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of PET measurements and high complexity of fitting models. In this study, we developed a direct parametric image reconstruction (DPIR) method for estimating kinetic parameters and recovering single tracer information from rapid multi-tracer PET measurements. This is achieved by integrating a multi-tracer model in a reduced parameter space (RPS) into dynamic image reconstruction. This new RPS model is reformulated from an existing multi-tracer model and contains fewer parameters for kinetic fitting. Ordered-subsets expectation-maximization (OSEM) was employed to approximate log-likelihood function with respect to kinetic parameters. To incorporate the multi-tracer model, an iterative weighted nonlinear least square (WNLS) method was employed. The proposed multi-tracer DPIR (MTDPIR) algorithm was evaluated on dual-tracer PET simulations ([18F]FDG and [11C]MET) as well as on preclinical PET measurements ([18F]FLT and [18F]FDG). The performance of the proposed algorithm was compared to the indirect parameter estimation method with the original dual-tracer model. The respective contributions of the RPS technique and the DPIR method to the performance of the new algorithm were analyzed in detail. For the preclinical evaluation, the tracer separation results were compared with single [18F]FDG scans of the same subjects measured 2 days before the dual-tracer scan. The results of the simulation and preclinical studies demonstrate that the proposed MT-DPIR method can improve the separation of multiple tracers for PET image quantification and kinetic parameter estimations.

Validation of Real-time Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone Heliospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Zheng, Y.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Odstrcil, D.

2013-12-01

Modeling coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is of great interest to the space weather research and forecasting communities. We present recent validation work of real-time CME arrival time predictions at different satellites using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone three-dimensional MHD heliospheric model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and performed by the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). SWRC is an in-house research-based operations team at the CCMC which provides interplanetary space weather forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and performs real-time model validation. The quality of model operation is evaluated by comparing its output to a measurable parameter of interest such as the CME arrival time and geomagnetic storm strength. The Kp index is calculated from the relation given in Newell et al. (2007), using solar wind parameters predicted by the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model at Earth. The CME arrival time error is defined as the difference between the predicted arrival time and the observed in-situ CME shock arrival time at the ACE, STEREO A, or STEREO B spacecraft. This study includes all real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations performed between June 2011-2013 (over 400 runs) at the CCMC/SWRC. We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For hits we show the average absolute CME arrival time error, and the dependence of this error on CME input parameters such as speed, width, and direction. We also present the predicted geomagnetic storm strength (using the Kp index) error for Earth-directed CMEs.

The Higgs properties in the MSSM after the LHC Run-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jun

2018-04-01

We scrutinize the parameter space of the SM-like Higgs boson in the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) under current experimental constraints. The constraints are from (i) the precision electroweak data and various flavor observables; (ii) the direct 22 separate ATLAS searches in Run-1; (iii) the latest LHC Run-2 Higgs data and tri-lepton search of electroweakinos. We perform a scan over the parameter space and find that the Run-2 data can further exclude a part of parameter space. For the property of the SM-like Higgs boson, its gauge couplings further approach to the SM values with a deviation below 0.1%, while its Yukawa couplings hbb¯ and hτ+τ‑ can still sizably differ from the SM predictions by several tens percent.

Bayesian Framework Approach for Prognostic Studies in Electrolytic Capacitor under Thermal Overstress Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

make end of life ( EOL ) and remaining useful life (RUL) estimations. Model-based prognostics approaches perform these tasks with the help of first...in parameters Degradation Modeling Parameter estimation Prediction Thermal / Electrical Stress Experimental Data State Space model RUL EOL ...distribution at given single time point kP , and use this for multi-step predictions to EOL . There are several methods which exits for selecting the sigma

Probabilistic methods for sensitivity analysis and calibration in the NASA challenge problem

DOE PAGES

Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Najm, Habib N.; ...

2015-01-01

In this study, a series of algorithms are proposed to address the problems in the NASA Langley Research Center Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge. A Bayesian approach is employed to characterize and calibrate the epistemic parameters based on the available data, whereas a variance-based global sensitivity analysis is used to rank the epistemic and aleatory model parameters. A nested sampling of the aleatory–epistemic space is proposed to propagate uncertainties from model parameters to output quantities of interest.

Probabilistic methods for sensitivity analysis and calibration in the NASA challenge problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Najm, Habib N.

In this study, a series of algorithms are proposed to address the problems in the NASA Langley Research Center Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge. A Bayesian approach is employed to characterize and calibrate the epistemic parameters based on the available data, whereas a variance-based global sensitivity analysis is used to rank the epistemic and aleatory model parameters. A nested sampling of the aleatory–epistemic space is proposed to propagate uncertainties from model parameters to output quantities of interest.

SP_Ace: a new code to derive stellar parameters and elemental abundances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boeche, C.; Grebel, E. K.

2016-03-01

Context. Ongoing and future massive spectroscopic surveys will collect large numbers (106-107) of stellar spectra that need to be analyzed. Highly automated software is needed to derive stellar parameters and chemical abundances from these spectra. Aims: We developed a new method of estimating the stellar parameters Teff, log g, [M/H], and elemental abundances. This method was implemented in a new code, SP_Ace (Stellar Parameters And Chemical abundances Estimator). This is a highly automated code suitable for analyzing the spectra of large spectroscopic surveys with low or medium spectral resolution (R = 2000-20 000). Methods: After the astrophysical calibration of the oscillator strengths of 4643 absorption lines covering the wavelength ranges 5212-6860 Å and 8400-8924 Å, we constructed a library that contains the equivalent widths (EW) of these lines for a grid of stellar parameters. The EWs of each line are fit by a polynomial function that describes the EW of the line as a function of the stellar parameters. The coefficients of these polynomial functions are stored in a library called the "GCOG library". SP_Ace, a code written in FORTRAN95, uses the GCOG library to compute the EWs of the lines, constructs models of spectra as a function of the stellar parameters and abundances, and searches for the model that minimizes the χ2 deviation when compared to the observed spectrum. The code has been tested on synthetic and real spectra for a wide range of signal-to-noise and spectral resolutions. Results: SP_Ace derives stellar parameters such as Teff, log g, [M/H], and chemical abundances of up to ten elements for low to medium resolution spectra of FGK-type stars with precision comparable to the one usually obtained with spectra of higher resolution. Systematic errors in stellar parameters and chemical abundances are presented and identified with tests on synthetic and real spectra. Stochastic errors are automatically estimated by the code for all the parameters. A simple Web front end of SP_Ace can be found at http://dc.g-vo.org/SP_ACE while the source code will be published soon. Full Tables D.1-D.3 are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/587/A2

PyLDTk: Python toolkit for calculating stellar limb darkening profiles and model-specific coefficients for arbitrary filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parviainen, Hannu

2015-10-01

PyLDTk automates the calculation of custom stellar limb darkening (LD) profiles and model-specific limb darkening coefficients (LDC) using the library of PHOENIX-generated specific intensity spectra by Husser et al. (2013). It facilitates exoplanet transit light curve modeling, especially transmission spectroscopy where the modeling is carried out for custom narrow passbands. PyLDTk construct model-specific priors on the limb darkening coefficients prior to the transit light curve modeling. It can also be directly integrated into the log posterior computation of any pre-existing transit modeling code with minimal modifications to constrain the LD model parameter space directly by the LD profile, allowing for the marginalization over the whole parameter space that can explain the profile without the need to approximate this constraint by a prior distribution. This is useful when using a high-order limb darkening model where the coefficients are often correlated, and the priors estimated from the tabulated values usually fail to include these correlations.

`Inverse Crime' and Model Integrity in Lightcurve Inversion applied to unresolved Space Object Identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, Laura S.; Subbarao, Kamesh

2017-12-01

This work presents a case wherein the selection of models when producing synthetic light curves affects the estimation of the size of unresolved space objects. Through this case, "inverse crime" (using the same model for the generation of synthetic data and data inversion), is illustrated. This is done by using two models to produce the synthetic light curve and later invert it. It is shown here that the choice of model indeed affects the estimation of the shape/size parameters. When a higher fidelity model (henceforth the one that results in the smallest error residuals after the crime is committed) is used to both create, and invert the light curve model the estimates of the shape/size parameters are significantly better than those obtained when a lower fidelity model (in comparison) is implemented for the estimation. It is therefore of utmost importance to consider the choice of models when producing synthetic data, which later will be inverted, as the results might be misleadingly optimistic.

SU-E-T-405: Evaluation of the Raystation Electron Monte Carlo Algorithm for Varian Linear Accelerators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sansourekidou, P; Allen, C

2015-06-15

Purpose: To evaluate the Raystation v4.51 Electron Monte Carlo algorithm for Varian Trilogy, IX and 2100 series linear accelerators and commission for clinical use. Methods: Seventy two water and forty air scans were acquired with a water tank in the form of profiles and depth doses, as requested by vendor. Data was imported into Rayphysics beam modeling module. Energy spectrum was modeled using seven parameters. Contamination photons were modeled using five parameters. Source phase space was modeled using six parameters. Calculations were performed in clinical version 4.51 and percent depth dose curves and profiles were extracted to be compared tomore » water tank measurements. Sensitivity tests were performed for all parameters. Grid size and particle histories were evaluated per energy for statistical uncertainty performance. Results: Model accuracy for air profiles is poor in the shoulder and penumbra region. However, model accuracy for water scans is acceptable. All energies and cones are within 2%/2mm for 90% of the points evaluated. Source phase space parameters have a cumulative effect. To achieve distributions with satisfactory smoothness level a 0.1cm grid and 3,000,000 particle histories were used for commissioning calculations. Calculation time was approximately 3 hours per energy. Conclusion: Raystation electron Monte Carlo is acceptable for clinical use for the Varian accelerators listed. Results are inferior to Elekta Electron Monte Carlo modeling. Known issues were reported to Raysearch and will be resolved in upcoming releases. Auto-modeling is limited to open cone depth dose curves and needs expansion.« less

Modelling the large-scale redshift-space 3-point correlation function of galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slepian, Zachary; Eisenstein, Daniel J.

2017-08-01

We present a configuration-space model of the large-scale galaxy 3-point correlation function (3PCF) based on leading-order perturbation theory and including redshift-space distortions (RSD). This model should be useful in extracting distance-scale information from the 3PCF via the baryon acoustic oscillation method. We include the first redshift-space treatment of biasing by the baryon-dark matter relative velocity. Overall, on large scales the effect of RSD is primarily a renormalization of the 3PCF that is roughly independent of both physical scale and triangle opening angle; for our adopted Ωm and bias values, the rescaling is a factor of ˜1.8. We also present an efficient scheme for computing 3PCF predictions from our model, important for allowing fast exploration of the space of cosmological parameters in future analyses.

Space shuttle SRM plume expansion sensitivity analysis. [flow characteristics of exhaust gases from solid propellant rocket engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, S. D.; Tevepaugh, J. A.; Penny, M. M.

1975-01-01

The exhaust plumes of the space shuttle solid rocket motors can have a significant effect on the base pressure and base drag of the shuttle vehicle. A parametric analysis was conducted to assess the sensitivity of the initial plume expansion angle of analytical solid rocket motor flow fields to various analytical input parameters and operating conditions. The results of the analysis are presented and conclusions reached regarding the sensitivity of the initial plume expansion angle to each parameter investigated. Operating conditions parametrically varied were chamber pressure, nozzle inlet angle, nozzle throat radius of curvature ratio and propellant particle loading. Empirical particle parameters investigated were mean size, local drag coefficient and local heat transfer coefficient. Sensitivity of the initial plume expansion angle to gas thermochemistry model and local drag coefficient model assumptions were determined.

SMC: SCENIC Model Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Srivastava, Priyaka; Kraus, Jeff; Murawski, Robert; Golden, Bertsel, Jr.

2015-01-01

NASAs Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) program manages three active networks: the Near Earth Network, the Space Network, and the Deep Space Network. These networks simultaneously support NASA missions and provide communications services to customers worldwide. To efficiently manage these resources and their capabilities, a team of student interns at the NASA Glenn Research Center is developing a distributed system to model the SCaN networks. Once complete, the system shall provide a platform that enables users to perform capacity modeling of current and prospective missions with finer-grained control of information between several simulation and modeling tools. This will enable the SCaN program to access a holistic view of its networks and simulate the effects of modifications in order to provide NASA with decisional information. The development of this capacity modeling system is managed by NASAs Strategic Center for Education, Networking, Integration, and Communication (SCENIC). Three primary third-party software tools offer their unique abilities in different stages of the simulation process. MagicDraw provides UMLSysML modeling, AGIs Systems Tool Kit simulates the physical transmission parameters and de-conflicts scheduled communication, and Riverbed Modeler (formerly OPNET) simulates communication protocols and packet-based networking. SCENIC developers are building custom software extensions to integrate these components in an end-to-end space communications modeling platform. A central control module acts as the hub for report-based messaging between client wrappers. Backend databases provide information related to mission parameters and ground station configurations, while the end user defines scenario-specific attributes for the model. The eight SCENIC interns are working under the direction of their mentors to complete an initial version of this capacity modeling system during the summer of 2015. The intern team is composed of four students in Computer Science, two in Computer Engineering, one in Electrical Engineering, and one studying Space Systems Engineering.

An analysis of the least-squares problem for the DSN systematic pointing error model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alvarez, L. S.

1991-01-01

A systematic pointing error model is used to calibrate antennas in the Deep Space Network. The least squares problem is described and analyzed along with the solution methods used to determine the model's parameters. Specifically studied are the rank degeneracy problems resulting from beam pointing error measurement sets that incorporate inadequate sky coverage. A least squares parameter subset selection method is described and its applicability to the systematic error modeling process is demonstrated on Voyager 2 measurement distribution.

Variations of cosmic large-scale structure covariance matrices across parameter space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reischke, Robert; Kiessling, Alina; Schäfer, Björn Malte

2017-03-01

The likelihood function for cosmological parameters, given by e.g. weak lensing shear measurements, depends on contributions to the covariance induced by the non-linear evolution of the cosmic web. As highly non-linear clustering to date has only been described by numerical N-body simulations in a reliable and sufficiently precise way, the necessary computational costs for estimating those covariances at different points in parameter space are tremendous. In this work, we describe the change of the matter covariance and the weak lensing covariance matrix as a function of cosmological parameters by constructing a suitable basis, where we model the contribution to the covariance from non-linear structure formation using Eulerian perturbation theory at third order. We show that our formalism is capable of dealing with large matrices and reproduces expected degeneracies and scaling with cosmological parameters in a reliable way. Comparing our analytical results to numerical simulations, we find that the method describes the variation of the covariance matrix found in the SUNGLASS weak lensing simulation pipeline within the errors at one-loop and tree-level for the spectrum and the trispectrum, respectively, for multipoles up to ℓ ≤ 1300. We show that it is possible to optimize the sampling of parameter space where numerical simulations should be carried out by minimizing interpolation errors and propose a corresponding method to distribute points in parameter space in an economical way.

Preliminary calculation of solar cosmic ray dose to the female breast in space mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shavers, Mark; Poston, John W.; Atwell, William; Hardy, Alva C.; Wilson, John W.

1991-01-01

No regulatory dose limits are specifically assigned for the radiation exposure of female breasts during manned space flight. However, the relatively high radiosensitivity of the glandular tissue of the breasts and its potential exposure to solar flare protons on short- and long-term missions mandate a priori estimation of the associated risks. A model for estimating exposure within the breast is developed for use in future NASA missions. The female breast and torso geometry is represented by a simple interim model. A recently developed proton dose-buildup procedure is used for estimating doses. The model considers geomagnetic shielding, magnetic-storm conditions, spacecraft shielding, and body self-shielding. Inputs to the model include proton energy spectra, spacecraft orbital parameters, STS orbiter-shielding distribution at a given position, and a single parameter allowing for variation in breast size.

Latest astronomical constraints on some non-linear parametric dark energy models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Weiqiang; Pan, Supriya; Paliathanasis, Andronikos

2018-04-01

We consider non-linear redshift-dependent equation of state parameters as dark energy models in a spatially flat Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker universe. To depict the expansion history of the universe in such cosmological scenarios, we take into account the large-scale behaviour of such parametric models and fit them using a set of latest observational data with distinct origin that includes cosmic microwave background radiation, Supernove Type Ia, baryon acoustic oscillations, redshift space distortion, weak gravitational lensing, Hubble parameter measurements from cosmic chronometers, and finally the local Hubble constant from Hubble space telescope. The fitting technique avails the publicly available code Cosmological Monte Carlo (COSMOMC), to extract the cosmological information out of these parametric dark energy models. From our analysis, it follows that those models could describe the late time accelerating phase of the universe, while they are distinguished from the Λ-cosmology.

System modelling for LISA Pathfinder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz-Aguiló, Marc; Grynagier, Adrien; Rais, Boutheina

LISA Pathfinder is the technology demonstrator for LISA, a space-borne gravitational waves observatory. The goal of the mission is to characterise the dynamics of the LISA Technology Package (LTP) to prove that on-board experimental conditions are compatible with the de-tection of gravitational waves. The LTP is a drag-free dynamics experiment which includes a control loop with sensors (interferometric and capacitive), actuators (capacitive actuators and thrusters), controlled disturbances (magnetic coils, heaters) and which is subject to various endogenous or exogenous noise sources such as infrared pressure or solar wind. The LTP experiment features new hardware which was never flown in space. The mission has a tight operation timeline as it is constrained to about 100 days. It is therefore vital to have efficient and precise means of investigation and diagnostics to be used during the on-orbit operations. These will be conducted using the LTP Data Analysis toolbox (LTPDA) which allows for simulation, parameter identification and various analyses (covariance analysis, state estimation) given an experimental model. The LTPDA toolbox therefore contains a series of models which are state-space representations of each component in the LTP. The State-Space Models (SSM) are objects of a state-space class within the LTPDA toolbox especially designed to address all the requirements of this tool. The user has access to a set of linear models which represent every satellite subsystem; the models are available in different forms representing 1D, 2D and 3D systems, each with settable symbolic and numeric parameters. To limit the possible errors, the models can be automatically linked to produce composite systems and closed-loops of the LTP. Finally, for the sake of completeness, accuracy and maintainability of the tool, the models contain all the physical information they mimic (i.e. variable units, description of parameters, description of inputs/outputs, etc). Models developed for this work include the fixed-point linearized equations of motion for the LTP and the linear models for sensors and actuators with their noise modelling blocks issued from the analysis of the individual actuators. The drag-free controller model includes the dis-crete delays expected in the hardware. In this work we briefly describe the software architecture, in order to concentrate then on the physical description of the models. This is supported by an overview of different user scenarios and some examples of model analysis that highlight the advantages of this high-level programming engineering toolbox for space mission data analysis and calibration.

Can the Equivalent Sphere Model Approximate Organ Doses in Space?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Zi-Wei

2007-01-01

For space radiation protection it is often useful to calculate dose or dose,equivalent in blood forming organs (BFO). It has been customary to use a 5cm equivalent sphere to. simulate the BFO dose. However, many previous studies have concluded that a 5cm sphere gives very different dose values from the exact BFO values. One study [1] . concludes that a 9 cm sphere is a reasonable approximation for BFO'doses in solar particle event environments. In this study we use a deterministic radiation transport [2] to investigate the reason behind these observations and to extend earlier studies. We take different space radiation environments, including seven galactic cosmic ray environments and six large solar particle events, and calculate the dose and dose equivalent in the skin, eyes and BFO using their thickness distribution functions from the CAM (Computerized Anatomical Man) model [3] The organ doses have been evaluated with a water or aluminum shielding of an areal density from 0 to 20 g/sq cm. We then compare with results from the equivalent sphere model and determine in which cases and at what radius parameters the equivalent sphere model is a reasonable approximation. Furthermore, we address why the equivalent sphere model is not a good approximation in some cases. For solar particle events, we find that the radius parameters for the organ dose equivalent increase significantly with the shielding thickness, and the model works marginally for BFO but is unacceptable for the eye or the skin. For galactic cosmic rays environments, the equivalent sphere model with an organ-specific constant radius parameter works well for the BFO dose equivalent, marginally well for the BFO dose and the dose equivalent of the eye or the skin, but is unacceptable for the dose of the eye or the skin. The ranges of the radius parameters are also being investigated, and the BFO radius parameters are found to be significantly, larger than 5 cm in all cases, consistent with the conclusion of an earlier study [I]. The radius parameters for the dose equivalent in GCR environments are approximately between 10 and I I cm for the BFO, 3.7 to 4.8 cm for the eye, and 3.5 to 5.6 cm for the skin; while the radius parameters are between 10 and 13 cm for the BFO dose.

Dynamical analysis of rendezvous and docking with very large space infrastructures in non-Keplerian orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colagrossi, Andrea; Lavagna, Michèle

2018-03-01

A space station in the vicinity of the Moon can be exploited as a gateway for future human and robotic exploration of the solar system. The natural location for a space system of this kind is about one of the Earth-Moon libration points. The study addresses the dynamics during rendezvous and docking operations with a very large space infrastructure in an EML2 Halo orbit. The model takes into account the coupling effects between the orbital and the attitude motion in a circular restricted three-body problem environment. The flexibility of the system is included, and the interaction between the modes of the structure and those related with the orbital motion is investigated. A lumped parameter technique is used to represents the flexible dynamics. The parameters of the space station are maintained as generic as possible, in a way to delineate a global scenario of the mission. However, the developed model can be tuned and updated according to the information that will be available in the future, when the whole system will be defined with a higher level of precision.

Evaluating marginal likelihood with thermodynamic integration method and comparison with several other numerical methods

DOE PAGES

Liu, Peigui; Elshall, Ahmed S.; Ye, Ming; ...

2016-02-05

Evaluating marginal likelihood is the most critical and computationally expensive task, when conducting Bayesian model averaging to quantify parametric and model uncertainties. The evaluation is commonly done by using Laplace approximations to evaluate semianalytical expressions of the marginal likelihood or by using Monte Carlo (MC) methods to evaluate arithmetic or harmonic mean of a joint likelihood function. This study introduces a new MC method, i.e., thermodynamic integration, which has not been attempted in environmental modeling. Instead of using samples only from prior parameter space (as in arithmetic mean evaluation) or posterior parameter space (as in harmonic mean evaluation), the thermodynamicmore » integration method uses samples generated gradually from the prior to posterior parameter space. This is done through a path sampling that conducts Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with different power coefficient values applied to the joint likelihood function. The thermodynamic integration method is evaluated using three analytical functions by comparing the method with two variants of the Laplace approximation method and three MC methods, including the nested sampling method that is recently introduced into environmental modeling. The thermodynamic integration method outperforms the other methods in terms of their accuracy, convergence, and consistency. The thermodynamic integration method is also applied to a synthetic case of groundwater modeling with four alternative models. The application shows that model probabilities obtained using the thermodynamic integration method improves predictive performance of Bayesian model averaging. As a result, the thermodynamic integration method is mathematically rigorous, and its MC implementation is computationally general for a wide range of environmental problems.« less

A stochastic fractional dynamics model of space-time variability of rain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, Prasun K.; Travis, James E.

2013-09-01

varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, which allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and time scales. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and on the Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to fit the second moment statistics of radar data at the smaller spatiotemporal scales. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well at these scales without any further adjustment.

Simulation analysis of photometric data for attitude estimation of unresolved space objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xiaoping; Gou, Ruixin; Liu, Hao; Hu, Heng; Wang, Yang

2017-10-01

The attitude information acquisition of unresolved space objects, such as micro-nano satellites and GEO objects under the way of ground-based optical observations, is a challenge to space surveillance. In this paper, a useful method is proposed to estimate the SO attitude state according to the simulation analysis of photometric data in different attitude states. The object shape model was established and the parameters of the BRDF model were determined, then the space object photometric model was established. Furthermore, the photometric data of space objects in different states are analyzed by simulation and the regular characteristics of the photometric curves are summarized. The simulation results show that the photometric characteristics are useful for attitude inversion in a unique way. Thus, a new idea is provided for space object identification in this paper.

Application of a rat hindlimb model: a prediction of force spaces reachable through stimulation of nerve fascicles.

PubMed

Johnson, Will L; Jindrich, Devin L; Zhong, Hui; Roy, Roland R; Edgerton, V Reggie

2011-12-01

A device to generate standing or locomotion through chronically placed electrodes has not been fully developed due in part to limitations of clinical experimentation and the high number of muscle activation inputs of the leg. We investigated the feasibility of functional electrical stimulation paradigms that minimize the input dimensions for controlling the limbs by stimulating at nerve fascicles, utilizing a model of the rat hindlimb, which combined previously collected morphological data with muscle physiological parameters presented herein. As validation of the model, we investigated the suitability of a lumped-parameter model for the prediction of muscle activation during dynamic tasks. Using the validated model, we found that the space of forces producible through activation of muscle groups sharing common nerve fascicles was nonlinearly dependent on the number of discrete muscle groups that could be individually activated (equivalently, the neuroanatomical level of activation). Seven commonly innervated muscle groups were sufficient to produce 78% of the force space producible through individual activation of the 42 modeled hindlimb muscles. This novel, neuroanatomically derived reduction in input dimension emphasizes the potential to simplify controllers for functional electrical stimulation to improve functional recovery after a neuromuscular injury.

Application of a Rat Hindlimb Model: A Prediction of Force Spaces Reachable Through Stimulation of Nerve Fascicles

PubMed Central

Johnson, Will L.; Jindrich, Devin L.; Zhong, Hui; Roy, Roland R.

2011-01-01

A device to generate standing or locomotion through chronically placed electrodes has not been fully developed due in part to limitations of clinical experimentation and the high number of muscle activation inputs of the leg. We investigated the feasibility of functional electrical stimulation paradigms that minimize the input dimensions for controlling the limbs by stimulating at nerve fascicles, utilizing a model of the rat hindlimb which combined previously collected morphological data with muscle physiological parameters presented herein. As validation of the model we investigated the suitability of a lumped-parameter model for prediction of muscle activation during dynamic tasks. Using the validated model we found that the space of forces producible through activation of muscle groups sharing common nerve fascicles was nonlinearly dependent on the number of discrete muscle groups that could be individually activated (equivalently, the neuroanatomical level of activation). Seven commonly innervated muscle groups were sufficient to produce 78% of the force space producible through individual activation of the 42 modeled hindlimb muscles. This novel, neuroanatomically derived reduction in input dimension emphasizes the potential to simplify controllers for functional electrical stimulation to improve functional recovery after a neuromuscular injury. PMID:21244999

[Application of quality by design in granulation process for Ginkgo leaf tablet (Ⅲ)： process control strategy based on design space].

PubMed

Cui, Xiang-Long; Xu, Bing; Sun, Fei; Dai, Sheng-Yun; Shi, Xin-Yuan; Qiao, Yan-Jiang

2017-03-01

In this paper, under the guidance of quality by design (QbD) concept, the control strategy of the high shear wet granulation process of the ginkgo leaf tablet based on the design space was established to improve the process controllability and product quality consistency. The median granule size (D50) and bulk density (Da) of granules were identified as critical quality attributes (CQAs) and potential critical process parameters (pCPPs) were determined by the failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA). The Plackeet-Burmann experimental design was used to screen pCPPs and the results demonstrated that the binder amount, the wet massing time and the wet mixing impeller speed were critical process parameters (CPPs). The design space of the high shear wet granulation process was developed within pCPPs range based on the Box-Behnken design and quadratic polynomial regression models. ANOVA analysis showed that the P-values of model were less than 0.05 and the values of lack of fit test were more than 0.1, indicating that the relationship between CQAs and CPPs could be well described by the mathematical models. D₅₀ could be controlled within 170 to 500 μm, and the bulk density could be controlled within 0.30 to 0.44 g•cm⁻³ by using any CPPs combination within the scope of design space. Besides, granules produced by process parameters within the design space region could also meet the requirement of tensile strength of the ginkgo leaf tablet.. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Gravitational-wave stochastic background from cosmic strings.

PubMed

Siemens, Xavier; Mandic, Vuk; Creighton, Jolien

2007-03-16

We consider the stochastic background of gravitational waves produced by a network of cosmic strings and assess their accessibility to current and planned gravitational wave detectors, as well as to big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), cosmic microwave background (CMB), and pulsar timing constraints. We find that current data from interferometric gravitational wave detectors, such as Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO), are sensitive to areas of parameter space of cosmic string models complementary to those accessible to pulsar, BBN, and CMB bounds. Future more sensitive LIGO runs and interferometers such as Advanced LIGO and Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to explore substantial parts of the parameter space.

Modeling Efficient Serial Visual Search

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

parafovea size) to explore the parameter space associated with serial search efficiency. Visual search as a paradigm has been studied meticulously for...continues (Over, Hooge , Vlaskamp, & Erkelens, 2007). Over et al. (2007) found that participants initially attended to general properties of the search environ...the efficiency of human serial visual search. There were three parameters that were manipulated in the modeling of the visual search process in this

Estimating standard errors in feature network models.

PubMed

Frank, Laurence E; Heiser, Willem J

2007-05-01

Feature network models are graphical structures that represent proximity data in a discrete space while using the same formalism that is the basis of least squares methods employed in multidimensional scaling. Existing methods to derive a network model from empirical data only give the best-fitting network and yield no standard errors for the parameter estimates. The additivity properties of networks make it possible to consider the model as a univariate (multiple) linear regression problem with positivity restrictions on the parameters. In the present study, both theoretical and empirical standard errors are obtained for the constrained regression parameters of a network model with known features. The performance of both types of standard error is evaluated using Monte Carlo techniques.

Static shape control for flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.; Scheid, R. E., Jr.

1986-01-01

An integrated methodology is described for defining static shape control laws for large flexible structures. The techniques include modeling, identifying and estimating the control laws of distributed systems characterized in terms of infinite dimensional state and parameter spaces. The models are expressed as interconnected elliptic partial differential equations governing a range of static loads, with the capability of analyzing electromagnetic fields around antenna systems. A second-order analysis is carried out for statistical errors, and model parameters are determined by maximizing an appropriate defined likelihood functional which adjusts the model to observational data. The parameter estimates are derived from the conditional mean of the observational data, resulting in a least squares superposition of shape functions obtained from the structural model.

Syndromes of collateral-reported psychopathology for ages 18-59 in 18 Societies

PubMed Central

Ivanova, Masha Y.; Achenbach, Thomas M.; Rescorla, Leslie A.; Turner, Lori V.; Árnadóttir, Hervör Alma; Au, Alma; Caldas, J. Carlos; Chaalal, Nebia; Chen, Yi Chuen; da Rocha, Marina M.; Decoster, Jeroen; Fontaine, Johnny R.J.; Funabiki, Yasuko; Guðmundsson, Halldór S.; Kim, Young Ah; Leung, Patrick; Liu, Jianghong; Malykh, Sergey; Marković, Jasminka; Oh, Kyung Ja; Petot, Jean-Michel; Samaniego, Virginia C.; Silvares, Edwiges Ferreira de Mattos; Šimulionienė, Roma; Šobot, Valentina; Sokoli, Elvisa; Sun, Guiju; Talcott, Joel B.; Vázquez, Natalia; Zasępa, Ewa

2017-01-01

The purpose was to advance research and clinical methodology for assessing psychopathology by testing the international generalizability of an 8-syndrome model derived from collateral ratings of adult behavioral, emotional, social, and thought problems. Collateral informants rated 8,582 18–59-year-old residents of 18 societies on the Adult Behavior Checklist (ABCL). Confirmatory factor analyses tested the fit of the 8-syndrome model to ratings from each society. The primary model fit index (Root Mean Square Error of Approximation) showed good model fit for all societies, while secondary indices (Tucker Lewis Index, Comparative Fit Index) showed acceptable to good fit for 17 societies. Factor loadings were robust across societies and items. Of the 5,007 estimated parameters, 4 (0.08%) were outside the admissible parameter space, but 95% confidence intervals included the admissible space, indicating that the 4 deviant parameters could be due to sampling fluctuations. The findings are consistent with previous evidence for the generalizability of the 8-syndrome model in self-ratings from 29 societies, and support the 8-syndrome model for operationalizing phenotypes of adult psychopathology from multi-informant ratings in diverse societies. PMID:29399019

Reduced-order modelling of parameter-dependent, linear and nonlinear dynamic partial differential equation models.

PubMed

Shah, A A; Xing, W W; Triantafyllidis, V

2017-04-01

In this paper, we develop reduced-order models for dynamic, parameter-dependent, linear and nonlinear partial differential equations using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The main challenges are to accurately and efficiently approximate the POD bases for new parameter values and, in the case of nonlinear problems, to efficiently handle the nonlinear terms. We use a Bayesian nonlinear regression approach to learn the snapshots of the solutions and the nonlinearities for new parameter values. Computational efficiency is ensured by using manifold learning to perform the emulation in a low-dimensional space. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated on a linear and a nonlinear example, with comparisons with a global basis approach.

Reduced-order modelling of parameter-dependent, linear and nonlinear dynamic partial differential equation models

PubMed Central

Xing, W. W.; Triantafyllidis, V.

2017-01-01

In this paper, we develop reduced-order models for dynamic, parameter-dependent, linear and nonlinear partial differential equations using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The main challenges are to accurately and efficiently approximate the POD bases for new parameter values and, in the case of nonlinear problems, to efficiently handle the nonlinear terms. We use a Bayesian nonlinear regression approach to learn the snapshots of the solutions and the nonlinearities for new parameter values. Computational efficiency is ensured by using manifold learning to perform the emulation in a low-dimensional space. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated on a linear and a nonlinear example, with comparisons with a global basis approach. PMID:28484327

The application of neural networks to the SSME startup transient

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, Claudia M.; Maul, William A.

1991-01-01

Feedforward neural networks were used to model three parameters during the Space Shuttle Main Engine startup transient. The three parameters were the main combustion chamber pressure, a controlled parameter, the high pressure oxidizer turbine discharge temperature, a redlined parameter, and the high pressure fuel pump discharge pressure, a failure-indicating performance parameter. Network inputs consisted of time windows of data from engine measurements that correlated highly to the modeled parameter. A standard backpropagation algorithm was used to train the feedforward networks on two nominal firings. Each trained network was validated with four additional nominal firings. For all three parameters, the neural networks were able to accurately predict the data in the validation sets as well as the training set.

Discrete- vs. Continuous-Time Modeling of Unequally Spaced Experience Sampling Method Data.

PubMed

de Haan-Rietdijk, Silvia; Voelkle, Manuel C; Keijsers, Loes; Hamaker, Ellen L

2017-01-01

The Experience Sampling Method is a common approach in psychological research for collecting intensive longitudinal data with high ecological validity. One characteristic of ESM data is that it is often unequally spaced, because the measurement intervals within a day are deliberately varied, and measurement continues over several days. This poses a problem for discrete-time (DT) modeling approaches, which are based on the assumption that all measurements are equally spaced. Nevertheless, DT approaches such as (vector) autoregressive modeling are often used to analyze ESM data, for instance in the context of affective dynamics research. There are equivalent continuous-time (CT) models, but they are more difficult to implement. In this paper we take a pragmatic approach and evaluate the practical relevance of the violated model assumption in DT AR(1) and VAR(1) models, for the N = 1 case. We use simulated data under an ESM measurement design to investigate the bias in the parameters of interest under four different model implementations, ranging from the true CT model that accounts for all the exact measurement times, to the crudest possible DT model implementation, where even the nighttime is treated as a regular interval. An analysis of empirical affect data illustrates how the differences between DT and CT modeling can play out in practice. We find that the size and the direction of the bias in DT (V)AR models for unequally spaced ESM data depend quite strongly on the true parameter in addition to data characteristics. Our recommendation is to use CT modeling whenever possible, especially now that new software implementations have become available.

Discrete- vs. Continuous-Time Modeling of Unequally Spaced Experience Sampling Method Data

PubMed Central

de Haan-Rietdijk, Silvia; Voelkle, Manuel C.; Keijsers, Loes; Hamaker, Ellen L.

2017-01-01

The Experience Sampling Method is a common approach in psychological research for collecting intensive longitudinal data with high ecological validity. One characteristic of ESM data is that it is often unequally spaced, because the measurement intervals within a day are deliberately varied, and measurement continues over several days. This poses a problem for discrete-time (DT) modeling approaches, which are based on the assumption that all measurements are equally spaced. Nevertheless, DT approaches such as (vector) autoregressive modeling are often used to analyze ESM data, for instance in the context of affective dynamics research. There are equivalent continuous-time (CT) models, but they are more difficult to implement. In this paper we take a pragmatic approach and evaluate the practical relevance of the violated model assumption in DT AR(1) and VAR(1) models, for the N = 1 case. We use simulated data under an ESM measurement design to investigate the bias in the parameters of interest under four different model implementations, ranging from the true CT model that accounts for all the exact measurement times, to the crudest possible DT model implementation, where even the nighttime is treated as a regular interval. An analysis of empirical affect data illustrates how the differences between DT and CT modeling can play out in practice. We find that the size and the direction of the bias in DT (V)AR models for unequally spaced ESM data depend quite strongly on the true parameter in addition to data characteristics. Our recommendation is to use CT modeling whenever possible, especially now that new software implementations have become available. PMID:29104554

Complete set of homogeneous isotropic analytic solutions in scalar-tensor cosmology with radiation and curvature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bars, Itzhak; Chen, Shih-Hung; Steinhardt, Paul J.; Turok, Neil

2012-10-01

We study a model of a scalar field minimally coupled to gravity, with a specific potential energy for the scalar field, and include curvature and radiation as two additional parameters. Our goal is to obtain analytically the complete set of configurations of a homogeneous and isotropic universe as a function of time. This leads to a geodesically complete description of the Universe, including the passage through the cosmological singularities, at the classical level. We give all the solutions analytically without any restrictions on the parameter space of the model or initial values of the fields. We find that for generic solutions the Universe goes through a singular (zero-size) bounce by entering a period of antigravity at each big crunch and exiting from it at the following big bang. This happens cyclically again and again without violating the null-energy condition. There is a special subset of geodesically complete nongeneric solutions which perform zero-size bounces without ever entering the antigravity regime in all cycles. For these, initial values of the fields are synchronized and quantized but the parameters of the model are not restricted. There is also a subset of spatial curvature-induced solutions that have finite-size bounces in the gravity regime and never enter the antigravity phase. These exist only within a small continuous domain of parameter space without fine-tuning the initial conditions. To obtain these results, we identified 25 regions of a 6-parameter space in which the complete set of analytic solutions are explicitly obtained.

Nonequilibrium umbrella sampling in spaces of many order parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickson, Alex; Warmflash, Aryeh; Dinner, Aaron R.

2009-02-01

We recently introduced an umbrella sampling method for obtaining nonequilibrium steady-state probability distributions projected onto an arbitrary number of coordinates that characterize a system (order parameters) [A. Warmflash, P. Bhimalapuram, and A. R. Dinner, J. Chem. Phys. 127, 154112 (2007)]. Here, we show how our algorithm can be combined with the image update procedure from the finite-temperature string method for reversible processes [E. Vanden-Eijnden and M. Venturoli, "Revisiting the finite temperature string method for calculation of reaction tubes and free energies," J. Chem. Phys. (in press)] to enable restricted sampling of a nonequilibrium steady state in the vicinity of a path in a many-dimensional space of order parameters. For the study of transitions between stable states, the adapted algorithm results in improved scaling with the number of order parameters and the ability to progressively refine the regions of enforced sampling. We demonstrate the algorithm by applying it to a two-dimensional model of driven Brownian motion and a coarse-grained (Ising) model for nucleation under shear. It is found that the choice of order parameters can significantly affect the convergence of the simulation; local magnetization variables other than those used previously for sampling transition paths in Ising systems are needed to ensure that the reactive flux is primarily contained within a tube in the space of order parameters. The relation of this method to other algorithms that sample the statistics of path ensembles is discussed.

On the theory of multi-pulse vibro-impact mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igumnov, L. A.; Metrikin, V. S.; Nikiforova, I. V.; Ipatov, A. A.

2017-11-01

This paper presents a mathematical model of a new multi-striker eccentric shock-vibration mechanism with a crank-sliding bar vibration exciter and an arbitrary number of pistons. Analytical solutions for the parameters of the model are obtained to determine the regions of existence of stable periodic motions. Under the assumption of an absolutely inelastic collision of the piston, we derive equations that single out a bifurcational unattainable boundary in the parameter space, which has a countable number of arbitrarily complex stable periodic motions in its neighbourhood. We present results of numerical simulations, which illustrate the existence of periodic and stochastic motions. The methods proposed in this paper for investigating the dynamical characteristics of the new crank-type conrod mechanisms allow practitioners to indicate regions in the parameter space, which allow tuning these mechanisms into the most efficient periodic mode of operation, and to effectively analyze the main changes in their operational regimes when the system parameters are changed.

Constraints on modified gravity from Planck 2015: when the health of your theory makes the difference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvatelli, Valentina; Piazza, Federico; Marinoni, Christian

2016-09-01

We use the effective field theory of dark energy (EFT of DE) formalism to constrain dark energy models belonging to the Horndeski class with the recent Planck 2015 CMB data. The space of theories is spanned by a certain number of parameters determining the linear cosmological perturbations, while the expansion history is set to that of a standard ΛCDM model. We always demand that the theories be free of fatal instabilities. Additionally, we consider two optional conditions, namely that scalar and tensor perturbations propagate with subliminal speed. Such criteria severely restrict the allowed parameter space and are thus very effective in shaping the posteriors. As a result, we confirm that no theory performs better than ΛCDM when CMB data alone are analysed. Indeed, the healthy dark energy models considered here are not able to reproduce those phenomenological behaviours of the effective Newton constant and gravitational slip parameters that, according to previous studies, best fit the data.

Constraints on modified gravity from Planck 2015: when the health of your theory makes the difference

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salvatelli, Valentina; Piazza, Federico; Marinoni, Christian, E-mail: Valentina.Salvatelli@cpt.univ-mrs.fr, E-mail: Federico.Piazza@cpt.univ-mrs.fr, E-mail: Christian.Marinoni@cpt.univ-mrs.fr

We use the effective field theory of dark energy (EFT of DE) formalism to constrain dark energy models belonging to the Horndeski class with the recent Planck 2015 CMB data. The space of theories is spanned by a certain number of parameters determining the linear cosmological perturbations, while the expansion history is set to that of a standard ΛCDM model. We always demand that the theories be free of fatal instabilities. Additionally, we consider two optional conditions, namely that scalar and tensor perturbations propagate with subliminal speed. Such criteria severely restrict the allowed parameter space and are thus very effectivemore » in shaping the posteriors. As a result, we confirm that no theory performs better than ΛCDM when CMB data alone are analysed. Indeed, the healthy dark energy models considered here are not able to reproduce those phenomenological behaviours of the effective Newton constant and gravitational slip parameters that, according to previous studies, best fit the data.« less

A fractional factorial probabilistic collocation method for uncertainty propagation of hydrologic model parameters in a reduced dimensional space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Huang, W.; Fan, Y. R.; Li, Z.

2015-10-01

In this study, a fractional factorial probabilistic collocation method is proposed to reveal statistical significance of hydrologic model parameters and their multi-level interactions affecting model outputs, facilitating uncertainty propagation in a reduced dimensional space. The proposed methodology is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed in China to demonstrate its validity and applicability, as well as its capability of revealing complex and dynamic parameter interactions. A set of reduced polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) only with statistically significant terms can be obtained based on the results of factorial analysis of variance (ANOVA), achieving a reduction of uncertainty in hydrologic predictions. The predictive performance of reduced PCEs is verified by comparing against standard PCEs and the Monte Carlo with Latin hypercube sampling (MC-LHS) method in terms of reliability, sharpness, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Results reveal that the reduced PCEs are able to capture hydrologic behaviors of the Xiangxi River watershed, and they are efficient functional representations for propagating uncertainties in hydrologic predictions.

Astrobiological complexity with probabilistic cellular automata.

PubMed

Vukotić, Branislav; Ćirković, Milan M

2012-08-01

The search for extraterrestrial life and intelligence constitutes one of the major endeavors in science, but has yet been quantitatively modeled only rarely and in a cursory and superficial fashion. We argue that probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) represent the best quantitative framework for modeling the astrobiological history of the Milky Way and its Galactic Habitable Zone. The relevant astrobiological parameters are to be modeled as the elements of the input probability matrix for the PCA kernel. With the underlying simplicity of the cellular automata constructs, this approach enables a quick analysis of large and ambiguous space of the input parameters. We perform a simple clustering analysis of typical astrobiological histories with "Copernican" choice of input parameters and discuss the relevant boundary conditions of practical importance for planning and guiding empirical astrobiological and SETI projects. In addition to showing how the present framework is adaptable to more complex situations and updated observational databases from current and near-future space missions, we demonstrate how numerical results could offer a cautious rationale for continuation of practical SETI searches.

Riemannian geometric approach to human arm dynamics, movement optimization, and invariance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biess, Armin; Flash, Tamar; Liebermann, Dario G.

2011-03-01

We present a generally covariant formulation of human arm dynamics and optimization principles in Riemannian configuration space. We extend the one-parameter family of mean-squared-derivative (MSD) cost functionals from Euclidean to Riemannian space, and we show that they are mathematically identical to the corresponding dynamic costs when formulated in a Riemannian space equipped with the kinetic energy metric. In particular, we derive the equivalence of the minimum-jerk and minimum-torque change models in this metric space. Solutions of the one-parameter family of MSD variational problems in Riemannian space are given by (reparametrized) geodesic paths, which correspond to movements with least muscular effort. Finally, movement invariants are derived from symmetries of the Riemannian manifold. We argue that the geometrical structure imposed on the arm’s configuration space may provide insights into the emerging properties of the movements generated by the motor system.

Parametric Robust Control and System Identification: Unified Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keel, L. H.

1996-01-01

During the period of this support, a new control system design and analysis method has been studied. This approach deals with control systems containing uncertainties that are represented in terms of its transfer function parameters. Such a representation of the control system is common and many physical parameter variations fall into this type of uncertainty. Techniques developed here are capable of providing nonconservative analysis of such control systems with parameter variations. We have also developed techniques to deal with control systems when their state space representations are given rather than transfer functions. In this case, the plant parameters will appear as entries of state space matrices. Finally, a system modeling technique to construct such systems from the raw input - output frequency domain data has been developed.

The symmetry and mass of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) as quantitative predictors for severe space weather at Earth.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuselier, S.; Allegrini, F.; Bzowski, M.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.; Funsten, H. O.; Galli, A.; Heirtzler, D.; Janzen, P. H.; Kubiak, M. A.; Kucharek, H.; Lewis, W. S.; Livadiotis, G.; McComas, D. J.; Moebius, E.; Petrinec, S. M.; Quinn, M. S.; Schwadron, N.; Sokol, J. M.; Trattner, K. J.

2014-12-01

The Bureau of Meteorology's Space Weather Service operates an alert service for severe space weather events. The service relies on a statistical model which ingests observations of M and X class solar flares at or shortly after the time of the flare to predict the occurrence and severity of terrestrial impacts with a lead time of 1 to 4 days. This model has been operational since 2012 and caters to the needs of critical infrastructure groups in the Australian region. This paper reports on improvements to the forecast model by including SOHO LASCO coronagraph observations of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The coronagraphs are analysed to determine the Earthward direction parameter and the integrated intensity as a measure of the CME mass. Both of these parameters can help to predict whether a CME will be geo-effective. This work aims to increase the accuracy of the model predictions and lower the rate of false positives, as well as providing an estimate of the expected level of geomagnetic storm intensity.

The symmetry and mass of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) as quantitative predictors for severe space weather at Earth.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeland, L. E.; Terkildsen, M. B.

2015-12-01

The Bureau of Meteorology's Space Weather Service operates an alert service for severe space weather events. The service relies on a statistical model which ingests observations of M and X class solar flares at or shortly after the time of the flare to predict the occurrence and severity of terrestrial impacts with a lead time of 1 to 4 days. This model has been operational since 2012 and caters to the needs of critical infrastructure groups in the Australian region. This paper reports on improvements to the forecast model by including SOHO LASCO coronagraph observations of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The coronagraphs are analysed to determine the Earthward direction parameter and the integrated intensity as a measure of the CME mass. Both of these parameters can help to predict whether a CME will be geo-effective. This work aims to increase the accuracy of the model predictions and lower the rate of false positives, as well as providing an estimate of the expected level of geomagnetic storm intensity.

A stochastic model for photon noise induced by charged particles in multiplier phototubes of the space telescope fine guidance sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, L. W.; Kennel, H. F.

1984-01-01

The Space Telescope (ST) is subjected to charged particle strikes in its space environment. ST's onboard fine guidance sensors utilize multiplier phototubes (PMT) for attitude determination. These tubes, when subjected to charged particle strikes, generate spurious photons in the form of Cerenkov radiation and fluorescence which give rise to unwanted disturbances in the pointing of the telescope. A stochastic model for the number of these spurious photons which strike the photocathode of the multiplier phototube which in turn produce the unwanted photon noise are presented. The model is applicable to both galactic cosmic rays and charged particles trapped in the Earth's radiation belts. The model which was programmed allows for easy adaption to a wide range of particles and different parameters for the phototube of the multiplier. The probability density functions for photons noise caused by protons, alpha particles, and carbon nuclei were using thousands of simulated strikes. These distributions are used as part of an overall ST dynamics simulation. The sensitivity of the density function to changes in the window parameters was also investigated.

Stochastic model for photon noise induced by charged particles in multiplier phototubes of the Hubble Space Telescope fine guidance sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, L. W.; Kennel, H. F.

1986-01-01

The Space Telescope (ST) is subjected to charged particle strikes in its space environment. ST's onboard fine guidance sensors utilize multiplier phototubes (PMT) for attitude determination. These tubes, when subjected to charged particle strikes, generate spurious photons in the form of Cerenkov radiation and fluorescence which give rise to unwanted disturbances in the pointing of the telescope. A stochastic model for the number of these spurious photons which strike the photocathodes of the multiplier phototube which in turn produce the unwanted photon noise are presented. The model is applicable to both galactic cosmic rays and charged particles trapped in the earth's radiation belts. The model which was programmed allows for easy adaption to a wide range of particles and different parameters for the phototube of the multiplier. The probability density functions for photons noise caused by protons, alpha particles, and carbon nuclei were using thousands of simulated strikes. These distributions are used as part of an overall ST dynamics simulation. The sensitivity of the density function to changes in the window parameters was also investigated.

Numerical solutions of the semiclassical Boltzmann ellipsoidal-statistical kinetic model equation

PubMed Central

Yang, Jaw-Yen; Yan, Chin-Yuan; Huang, Juan-Chen; Li, Zhihui

2014-01-01

Computations of rarefied gas dynamical flows governed by the semiclassical Boltzmann ellipsoidal-statistical (ES) kinetic model equation using an accurate numerical method are presented. The semiclassical ES model was derived through the maximum entropy principle and conserves not only the mass, momentum and energy, but also contains additional higher order moments that differ from the standard quantum distributions. A different decoding procedure to obtain the necessary parameters for determining the ES distribution is also devised. The numerical method in phase space combines the discrete-ordinate method in momentum space and the high-resolution shock capturing method in physical space. Numerical solutions of two-dimensional Riemann problems for two configurations covering various degrees of rarefaction are presented and various contours of the quantities unique to this new model are illustrated. When the relaxation time becomes very small, the main flow features a display similar to that of ideal quantum gas dynamics, and the present solutions are found to be consistent with existing calculations for classical gas. The effect of a parameter that permits an adjustable Prandtl number in the flow is also studied. PMID:25104904

Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models

PubMed Central

Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

2015-01-01

This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities. PMID:26958606

Reasoning from non-stationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Struzik, Zbigniew R.; van Wijngaarden, Willem J.; Castelo, Robert

2002-11-01

Complex real-world (biological) systems often exhibit intrinsically non-stationary behaviour of their temporal characteristics. We discuss local measures of scaling which can capture and reveal changes in a system's behaviour. Such measures offer increased insight into a system's behaviour and are superior to global, spectral characteristics like the multifractal spectrum. They are, however, often inadequate for fully understanding and modelling the phenomenon. We illustrate an attempt to capture complex model characteristics by analysing (multiple order) correlations in a high dimensional space of parameters of the (biological) system being studied. Both temporal information, among others local scaling information, and external descriptors/parameters, possibly influencing the system's state, are used to span the search space investigated for the presence of a (sub-)optimal model. As an example, we use fetal heartbeat monitored during labour.

Kinematic model for the space-variant image motion of star sensors under dynamical conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chao-Shan; Hu, Lai-Hong; Liu, Guang-Bin; Yang, Bo; Li, Ai-Jun

2015-06-01

A kinematic description of a star spot in the focal plane is presented for star sensors under dynamical conditions, which involves all necessary parameters such as the image motion, velocity, and attitude parameters of the vehicle. Stars at different locations of the focal plane correspond to the slightly different orientation and extent of motion blur, which characterize the space-variant point spread function. Finally, the image motion, the energy distribution, and centroid extraction are numerically investigated using the kinematic model under dynamic conditions. A centroid error of eight successive iterations <0.002 pixel is used as the termination criterion for the Richardson-Lucy deconvolution algorithm. The kinematic model of a star sensor is useful for evaluating the compensation algorithms of motion-blurred images.

Deep space network software cost estimation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tausworthe, R. C.

1981-01-01

A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for Deep Space Network (DSN) Data Systems implementation tasks is presented. The resource estimation model incorporates principles and data from a number of existing models. The model calibrates task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit DSN software life cycle statistics. The estimation model output scales a standard DSN Work Breakdown Structure skeleton, which is then input into a PERT/CPM system, producing a detailed schedule and resource budget for the project being planned.

Exploratory Study for Continuous-time Parameter Estimation of Ankle Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kukreja, Sunil L.; Boyle, Richard D.

2014-01-01

Recently, a parallel pathway model to describe ankle dynamics was proposed. This model provides a relationship between ankle angle and net ankle torque as the sum of a linear and nonlinear contribution. A technique to identify parameters of this model in discrete-time has been developed. However, these parameters are a nonlinear combination of the continuous-time physiology, making insight into the underlying physiology impossible. The stable and accurate estimation of continuous-time parameters is critical for accurate disease modeling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, development of optimal exercise protocols for longterm space exploration, sports medicine, etc. This paper explores the development of a system identification technique to estimate the continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. The effectiveness of this approach is assessed via simulation of a continuous-time model of ankle dynamics with typical parameters found in clinical studies. The results show that although this technique improves estimates, it does not provide robust estimates of continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. Due to this we conclude that alternative modeling strategies and more advanced estimation techniques be considered for future work.

Quantifying networks complexity from information geometry viewpoint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Felice, Domenico, E-mail: domenico.felice@unicam.it; Mancini, Stefano; INFN-Sezione di Perugia, Via A. Pascoli, I-06123 Perugia

We consider a Gaussian statistical model whose parameter space is given by the variances of random variables. Underlying this model we identify networks by interpreting random variables as sitting on vertices and their correlations as weighted edges among vertices. We then associate to the parameter space a statistical manifold endowed with a Riemannian metric structure (that of Fisher-Rao). Going on, in analogy with the microcanonical definition of entropy in Statistical Mechanics, we introduce an entropic measure of networks complexity. We prove that it is invariant under networks isomorphism. Above all, considering networks as simplicial complexes, we evaluate this entropy onmore » simplexes and find that it monotonically increases with their dimension.« less

The H,G_1,G_2 photometric system with scarce observational data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penttilä, A.; Granvik, M.; Muinonen, K.; Wilkman, O.

2014-07-01

The H,G_1,G_2 photometric system was officially adopted at the IAU General Assembly in Beijing, 2012. The system replaced the H,G system from 1985. The 'photometric system' is a parametrized model V(α; params) for the magnitude-phase relation of small Solar System bodies, and the main purpose is to predict the magnitude at backscattering, H := V(0°), i.e., the (absolute) magnitude of the object. The original H,G system was designed using the best available data in 1985, but since then new observations have been made showing certain features, especially near backscattering, to which the H,G function has troubles adjusting to. The H,G_1,G_2 system was developed especially to address these issues [1]. With a sufficient number of high-accuracy observations and with a wide phase-angle coverage, the H,G_1,G_2 system performs well. However, with scarce low-accuracy data the system has troubles producing a reliable fit, as would any other three-parameter nonlinear function. Therefore, simultaneously with the H,G_1,G_2 system, a two-parameter version of the model, the H,G_{12} system, was introduced [1]. The two-parameter version ties the parameters G_1,G_2 into a single parameter G_{12} by a linear relation, and still uses the H,G_1,G_2 system in the background. This version dramatically improves the possibility to receive a reliable phase-curve fit to scarce data. The amount of observed small bodies is increasing all the time, and so is the need to produce estimates for the absolute magnitude/diameter/albedo and other size/composition related parameters. The lack of small-phase-angle observations is especially topical for near-Earth objects (NEOs). With these, even the two- parameter version faces problems. The previous procedure with the H,G system in such circumstances has been that the G-parameter has been fixed to some constant value, thus only fitting a single-parameter function. In conclusion, there is a definitive need for a reliable procedure to produce photometric fits to very scarce and low-accuracy data. There are a few details that should be considered with the H,G_1,G_2 or H,G_{12} systems with scarce data. The first point is the distribution of errors in the fit. The original H,G system allowed linear regression in the flux space, thus making the estimation computationally easier. The same principle was repeated with the H,G_1,G_2 system. There is, however, a major hidden assumption in the transformation. With regression modeling, the residuals should be distributed symmetrically around zero. If they are normally distributed, even better. We have noticed that, at least with some NEO observations, the residuals in the flux space are far from symmetric, and seem to be much more symmetric in the magnitude space. The result is that the nonlinear fit in magnitude space is far more reliable than the linear fit in the flux space. Since the computers and nonlinear regression algorithms are efficient enough, we conclude that, in many cases, with low-accuracy data the nonlinear fit should be favored. In fact, there are statistical procedures that should be employed with the photometric fit. At the moment, the choice between the three-parameter and two-parameter versions is simply based on subjective decision-making. By checking parameter error and model comparison statistics, the choice could be done objectively. Similarly, the choice between the linear fit in flux space and the nonlinear fit in magnitude space should be based on a statistical test of unbiased residuals. Furthermore, the so-called Box-Cox transform could be employed to find an optimal transformation somewhere between the magnitude and flux spaces. The H,G_1,G_2 system is based on cubic splines, and is therefore a bit more complicated to implement than a system with simpler basis functions. The same applies to a complete program that would automatically choose the best transforms to data, test if two- or three-parameter version of the model should be fitted, and produce the fitted parameters with their error estimates. Our group has already made implementations of the H,G_1,G_2 system publicly available [2]. We plan to implement the abovementioned improvements to the system and make also these tools public.

Strict Constraint Feasibility in Analysis and Design of Uncertain Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Giesy, Daniel P.; Kenny, Sean P.

2006-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and design optimization of models subject to parametric uncertainty, where hard inequality constraints are present. Hard constraints are those that must be satisfied for all parameter realizations prescribed by the uncertainty model. Emphasis is given to uncertainty models prescribed by norm-bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value, i.e., hyper-spheres, and by sets of independently bounded uncertain variables, i.e., hyper-rectangles. These models make it possible to consider sets of parameters having comparable as well as dissimilar levels of uncertainty. Two alternative formulations for hyper-rectangular sets are proposed, one based on a transformation of variables and another based on an infinity norm approach. The suite of tools developed enable us to determine if the satisfaction of hard constraints is feasible by identifying critical combinations of uncertain parameters. Since this practice is performed without sampling or partitioning the parameter space, the resulting assessments of robustness are analytically verifiable. Strategies that enable the comparison of the robustness of competing design alternatives, the approximation of the robust design space, and the systematic search for designs with improved robustness characteristics are also proposed. Since the problem formulation is generic and the solution methods only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, the tools developed are applicable to a broad range of problems in several disciplines.

Catchment Tomography - Joint Estimation of Surface Roughness and Hydraulic Conductivity with the EnKF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatz, D.; Kurtz, W.; Hendricks Franssen, H. J.; Vereecken, H.; Kollet, S. J.

2017-12-01

Parameter estimation for physically based, distributed hydrological models becomes increasingly challenging with increasing model complexity. The number of parameters is usually large and the number of observations relatively small, which results in large uncertainties. A moving transmitter - receiver concept to estimate spatially distributed hydrological parameters is presented by catchment tomography. In this concept, precipitation, highly variable in time and space, serves as a moving transmitter. As response to precipitation, runoff and stream discharge are generated along different paths and time scales, depending on surface and subsurface flow properties. Stream water levels are thus an integrated signal of upstream parameters, measured by stream gauges which serve as the receivers. These stream water level observations are assimilated into a distributed hydrological model, which is forced with high resolution, radar based precipitation estimates. Applying a joint state-parameter update with the Ensemble Kalman Filter, the spatially distributed Manning's roughness coefficient and saturated hydraulic conductivity are estimated jointly. The sequential data assimilation continuously integrates new information into the parameter estimation problem, especially during precipitation events. Every precipitation event constrains the possible parameter space. In the approach, forward simulations are performed with ParFlow, a variable saturated subsurface and overland flow model. ParFlow is coupled to the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework for the data assimilation and the joint state-parameter update. In synthetic, 3-dimensional experiments including surface and subsurface flow, hydraulic conductivity and the Manning's coefficient are efficiently estimated with the catchment tomography approach. A joint update of the Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity tends to improve the parameter estimation compared to a single parameter update, especially in cases of biased initial parameter ensembles. The computational experiments additionally show to which degree of spatial heterogeneity and to which degree of uncertainty of subsurface flow parameters the Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity can be estimated efficiently.

Approximate Bayesian Computation in the estimation of the parameters of the Forbush decrease model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wawrzynczak, A.; Kopka, P.

2017-12-01

Realistic modeling of the complicated phenomena as Forbush decrease of the galactic cosmic ray intensity is a quite challenging task. One aspect is a numerical solution of the Fokker-Planck equation in five-dimensional space (three spatial variables, the time and particles energy). The second difficulty arises from a lack of detailed knowledge about the spatial and time profiles of the parameters responsible for the creation of the Forbush decrease. Among these parameters, the central role plays a diffusion coefficient. Assessment of the correctness of the proposed model can be done only by comparison of the model output with the experimental observations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity. We apply the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methodology to match the Forbush decrease model to experimental data. The ABC method is becoming increasing exploited for dynamic complex problems in which the likelihood function is costly to compute. The main idea of all ABC methods is to accept samples as an approximate posterior draw if its associated modeled data are close enough to the observed one. In this paper, we present application of the Sequential Monte Carlo Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm scanning the space of the diffusion coefficient parameters. The proposed algorithm is adopted to create the model of the Forbush decrease observed by the neutron monitors at the Earth in March 2002. The model of the Forbush decrease is based on the stochastic approach to the solution of the Fokker-Planck equation.

On the accuracy of the Padé-resummed master equation approach to dissipative quantum dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Hsing-Ta; Reichman, David R.; Berkelbach, Timothy C.

2016-04-21

Well-defined criteria are proposed for assessing the accuracy of quantum master equations whose memory functions are approximated by Padé resummation of the first two moments in the electronic coupling. These criteria partition the parameter space into distinct levels of expected accuracy, ranging from quantitatively accurate regimes to regions of parameter space where the approach is not expected to be applicable. Extensive comparison of Padé-resummed master equations with numerically exact results in the context of the spin–boson model demonstrates that the proposed criteria correctly demarcate the regions of parameter space where the Padé approximation is reliable. The applicability analysis we presentmore » is not confined to the specifics of the Hamiltonian under consideration and should provide guidelines for other classes of resummation techniques.« less

Model parameter learning using Kullback-Leibler divergence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chungwei; Marks, Tim K.; Pajovic, Milutin; Watanabe, Shinji; Tung, Chih-kuan

2018-02-01

In this paper, we address the following problem: For a given set of spin configurations whose probability distribution is of the Boltzmann type, how do we determine the model coupling parameters? We demonstrate that directly minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence is an efficient method. We test this method against the Ising and XY models on the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) lattices, and provide two estimators to quantify the model quality. We apply this method to two types of problems. First, we apply it to the real-space renormalization group (RG). We find that the obtained RG flow is sufficiently good for determining the phase boundary (within 1% of the exact result) and the critical point, but not accurate enough for critical exponents. The proposed method provides a simple way to numerically estimate amplitudes of the interactions typically truncated in the real-space RG procedure. Second, we apply this method to the dynamical system composed of self-propelled particles, where we extract the parameter of a statistical model (a generalized XY model) from a dynamical system described by the Viscek model. We are able to obtain reasonable coupling values corresponding to different noise strengths of the Viscek model. Our method is thus able to provide quantitative analysis of dynamical systems composed of self-propelled particles.

Neutrino mass matrices with two vanishing cofactors and Fritzsch texture for charged lepton mass matrix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weijian; Guo, Shu-Yuan; Wang, Zhi-Gang

2016-04-01

In this paper, we study the cofactor 2 zero neutrino mass matrices with the Fritzsch-type structure in charged lepton mass matrix (CLMM). In the numerical analysis, we perform a scan over the parameter space of all the 15 possible patterns to get a large sample of viable scattering points. Among the 15 possible patterns, three of them can accommodate the latest lepton mixing and neutrino mass data. We compare the predictions of the allowed patterns with their counterparts with diagonal CLMM. In this case, the severe cosmology bound on the neutrino mass set a strong constraint on the parameter space, rendering two patterns only marginally allowed. The Fritzsch-type CLMM will have impact on the viable parameter space and give rise to different phenomenological predictions. Each allowed pattern predicts the strong correlations between physical variables, which is essential for model selection and can be probed in future experiments. It is found that under the no-diagonal CLMM, the cofactor zeros structure in neutrino mass matrix is unstable as the running of renormalization group (RG) from seesaw scale to the electroweak scale. A way out of the problem is to propose the flavor symmetry under the models with a TeV seesaw scale. The inverse seesaw model and a loop-induced model are given as two examples.

A diversity index for model space selection in the estimation of benchmark and infectious doses via model averaging.

PubMed

Kim, Steven B; Kodell, Ralph L; Moon, Hojin

2014-03-01

In chemical and microbial risk assessments, risk assessors fit dose-response models to high-dose data and extrapolate downward to risk levels in the range of 1-10%. Although multiple dose-response models may be able to fit the data adequately in the experimental range, the estimated effective dose (ED) corresponding to an extremely small risk can be substantially different from model to model. In this respect, model averaging (MA) provides more robustness than a single dose-response model in the point and interval estimation of an ED. In MA, accounting for both data uncertainty and model uncertainty is crucial, but addressing model uncertainty is not achieved simply by increasing the number of models in a model space. A plausible set of models for MA can be characterized by goodness of fit and diversity surrounding the truth. We propose a diversity index (DI) to balance between these two characteristics in model space selection. It addresses a collective property of a model space rather than individual performance of each model. Tuning parameters in the DI control the size of the model space for MA. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Radiation dosimetry and biophysical models of space radiation effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wu, Honglu; Shavers, Mark R.; George, Kerry

2003-01-01

Estimating the biological risks from space radiation remains a difficult problem because of the many radiation types including protons, heavy ions, and secondary neutrons, and the absence of epidemiology data for these radiation types. Developing useful biophysical parameters or models that relate energy deposition by space particles to the probabilities of biological outcomes is a complex problem. Physical measurements of space radiation include the absorbed dose, dose equivalent, and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra. In contrast to conventional dosimetric methods, models of radiation track structure provide descriptions of energy deposition events in biomolecules, cells, or tissues, which can be used to develop biophysical models of radiation risks. In this paper, we address the biophysical description of heavy particle tracks in the context of the interpretation of both space radiation dosimetry and radiobiology data, which may provide insights into new approaches to these problems.

Inversion of Surface Wave Phase Velocities for Radial Anisotropy to an Depth of 1200 km

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Z.; Beghein, C.; Yuan, K.

2012-12-01

This study aims to evaluate three dimensional radial anisotropy to an depth of 1200 km. Radial anisotropy describes the difference in velocity between horizontally polarized Rayleigh waves and vertically polarized Love waves. Its presence in the uppermost 200 km mantle has well been documented by different groups, and has been regarded as an indicator of mantle convection which aligns the intrinsically anisotropic minerals, largely olivine, to form large scale anisotropy. However, there is no global agreement on whether anisotropy exists in the region below 200 km. Recent models also associate a fast vertically polarized shear wave with vertical upwelling mantle flow. The data used in this study is the globally isotropic phase velocity models of fundamental and higher mode Love and Rayleigh waves (Visser, 2008). The inclusion of higher mode surface wave phase velocity provides sensitivities to structure at depth that extends to below the transition zone. While the data is the same as used by Visser (2008), a quite different parameterization is applied. All the six parameters - five elastic parameters A, C, F, L, N and density - are now regarded as independent, which rules out possible biased conclusions induced by scaling relation method used in several previous studies to reduce the number of parameters partly due to limited computing resources. The data need to be modified by crustal corrections (Crust2.0) as we want to look at the mantle structure only. We do this by eliminating the perturbation in surface wave phase velocity caused by the difference in crustal structure with respect to the referent model PREM. Sambridge's Neighborhood Algorithm is used to search the parameter space. The introduction of such a direct search technique pales the traditional inversion method, which requires regularization or some unnecessary priori restriction on the model space. On the contrary, the new method will search the full model space, providing probability density function of each anisotropic parameter and the corresponding resolution.

Grid Block Design Based on Monte Carlo Simulated Dosimetry, the Linear Quadratic and Hug–Kellerer Radiobiological Models

PubMed Central

Gholami, Somayeh; Nedaie, Hassan Ali; Longo, Francesco; Ay, Mohammad Reza; Dini, Sharifeh A.; Meigooni, Ali S.

2017-01-01

Purpose: The clinical efficacy of Grid therapy has been examined by several investigators. In this project, the hole diameter and hole spacing in Grid blocks were examined to determine the optimum parameters that give a therapeutic advantage. Methods: The evaluations were performed using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation and commonly used radiobiological models. The Geant4 MC code was used to simulate the dose distributions for 25 different Grid blocks with different hole diameters and center-to-center spacing. The therapeutic parameters of these blocks, namely, the therapeutic ratio (TR) and geometrical sparing factor (GSF) were calculated using two different radiobiological models, including the linear quadratic and Hug–Kellerer models. In addition, the ratio of the open to blocked area (ROTBA) is also used as a geometrical parameter for each block design. Comparisons of the TR, GSF, and ROTBA for all of the blocks were used to derive the parameters for an optimum Grid block with the maximum TR, minimum GSF, and optimal ROTBA. A sample of the optimum Grid block was fabricated at our institution. Dosimetric characteristics of this Grid block were measured using an ionization chamber in water phantom, Gafchromic film, and thermoluminescent dosimeters in Solid Water™ phantom materials. Results: The results of these investigations indicated that Grid blocks with hole diameters between 1.00 and 1.25 cm and spacing of 1.7 or 1.8 cm have optimal therapeutic parameters (TR > 1.3 and GSF~0.90). The measured dosimetric characteristics of the optimum Grid blocks including dose profiles, percentage depth dose, dose output factor (cGy/MU), and valley-to-peak ratio were in good agreement (±5%) with the simulated data. Conclusion: In summary, using MC-based dosimetry, two radiobiological models, and previously published clinical data, we have introduced a method to design a Grid block with optimum therapeutic response. The simulated data were reproduced by experimental data. PMID:29296035

Target Capturing Control for Space Robots with Unknown Mass Properties: A Self-Tuning Method Based on Gyros and Cameras.

PubMed

Li, Zhenyu; Wang, Bin; Liu, Hong

2016-08-30

Satellite capturing with free-floating space robots is still a challenging task due to the non-fixed base and unknown mass property issues. In this paper gyro and eye-in-hand camera data are adopted as an alternative choice for solving this problem. For this improved system, a new modeling approach that reduces the complexity of system control and identification is proposed. With the newly developed model, the space robot is equivalent to a ground-fixed manipulator system. Accordingly, a self-tuning control scheme is applied to handle such a control problem including unknown parameters. To determine the controller parameters, an estimator is designed based on the least-squares technique for identifying the unknown mass properties in real time. The proposed method is tested with a credible 3-dimensional ground verification experimental system, and the experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

Target Capturing Control for Space Robots with Unknown Mass Properties: A Self-Tuning Method Based on Gyros and Cameras

PubMed Central

Li, Zhenyu; Wang, Bin; Liu, Hong

2016-01-01

Satellite capturing with free-floating space robots is still a challenging task due to the non-fixed base and unknown mass property issues. In this paper gyro and eye-in-hand camera data are adopted as an alternative choice for solving this problem. For this improved system, a new modeling approach that reduces the complexity of system control and identification is proposed. With the newly developed model, the space robot is equivalent to a ground-fixed manipulator system. Accordingly, a self-tuning control scheme is applied to handle such a control problem including unknown parameters. To determine the controller parameters, an estimator is designed based on the least-squares technique for identifying the unknown mass properties in real time. The proposed method is tested with a credible 3-dimensional ground verification experimental system, and the experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme. PMID:27589748

Numerical Experimentation with Maximum Likelihood Identification in Static Distributed Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheid, R. E., Jr.; Rodriguez, G.

1985-01-01

Many important issues in the control of large space structures are intimately related to the fundamental problem of parameter identification. One might also ask how well this identification process can be carried out in the presence of noisy data since no sensor system is perfect. With these considerations in mind the algorithms herein are designed to treat both the case of uncertainties in the modeling and uncertainties in the data. The analytical aspects of maximum likelihood identification are considered in some detail in another paper. The questions relevant to the implementation of these schemes are dealt with, particularly as they apply to models of large space structures. The emphasis is on the influence of the infinite dimensional character of the problem on finite dimensional implementations of the algorithms. Those areas of current and future analysis are highlighted which indicate the interplay between error analysis and possible truncations of the state and parameter spaces.

Geometric dimension model of virtual astronaut body for ergonomic analysis of man-machine space system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qianxiang, Zhou

2012-07-01

It is very important to clarify the geometric characteristic of human body segment and constitute analysis model for ergonomic design and the application of ergonomic virtual human. The typical anthropometric data of 1122 Chinese men aged 20-35 years were collected using three-dimensional laser scanner for human body. According to the correlation between different parameters, curve fitting were made between seven trunk parameters and ten body parameters with the SPSS 16.0 software. It can be concluded that hip circumference and shoulder breadth are the most important parameters in the models and the two parameters have high correlation with the others parameters of human body. By comparison with the conventional regressive curves, the present regression equation with the seven trunk parameters is more accurate to forecast the geometric dimensions of head, neck, height and the four limbs with high precision. Therefore, it is greatly valuable for ergonomic design and analysis of man-machine system.This result will be very useful to astronaut body model analysis and application.

Genetic algorithm based input selection for a neural network function approximator with applications to SSME health monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peck, Charles C.; Dhawan, Atam P.; Meyer, Claudia M.

1991-01-01

A genetic algorithm is used to select the inputs to a neural network function approximator. In the application considered, modeling critical parameters of the space shuttle main engine (SSME), the functional relationship between measured parameters is unknown and complex. Furthermore, the number of possible input parameters is quite large. Many approaches have been used for input selection, but they are either subjective or do not consider the complex multivariate relationships between parameters. Due to the optimization and space searching capabilities of genetic algorithms they were employed to systematize the input selection process. The results suggest that the genetic algorithm can generate parameter lists of high quality without the explicit use of problem domain knowledge. Suggestions for improving the performance of the input selection process are also provided.

EDITORIAL: Interrelationship between plasma phenomena in the laboratory and in space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koepke, Mark

2008-07-01

The premise of investigating basic plasma phenomena relevant to space is that an alliance exists between both basic plasma physicists, using theory, computer modelling and laboratory experiments, and space science experimenters, using different instruments, either flown on different spacecraft in various orbits or stationed on the ground. The intent of this special issue on interrelated phenomena in laboratory and space plasmas is to promote the interpretation of scientific results in a broader context by sharing data, methods, knowledge, perspectives, and reasoning within this alliance. The desired outcomes are practical theories, predictive models, and credible interpretations based on the findings and expertise available. Laboratory-experiment papers that explicitly address a specific space mission or a specific manifestation of a space-plasma phenomenon, space-observation papers that explicitly address a specific laboratory experiment or a specific laboratory result, and theory or modelling papers that explicitly address a connection between both laboratory and space investigations were encouraged. Attention was given to the utility of the references for readers who seek further background, examples, and details. With the advent of instrumented spacecraft, the observation of waves (fluctuations), wind (flows), and weather (dynamics) in space plasmas was approached within the framework provided by theory with intuition provided by the laboratory experiments. Ideas on parallel electric field, magnetic topology, inhomogeneity, and anisotropy have been refined substantially by laboratory experiments. Satellite and rocket observations, theory and simulations, and laboratory experiments have contributed to the revelation of a complex set of processes affecting the accelerations of electrons and ions in the geospace plasma. The processes range from meso-scale of several thousands of kilometers to micro-scale of a few meters to kilometers. Papers included in this special issue serve to synthesise our current understanding of processes related to the coupling and feedback at disparate scales. Categories of topics included here are (1) ionospheric physics and (2) Alfvén-wave physics, both of which are related to the particle acceleration responsible for auroral displays, (3) whistler-mode triggering mechanism, which is relevant to radiation-belt dynamics, (4) plasmoid encountering a barrier, which has applications throughout the realm of space and astrophysical plasmas, and (5) laboratory investigations of the entire magnetosphere or the plasma surrounding the magnetosphere. The papers are ordered from processes that take place nearest the Earth to processes that take place at increasing distances from Earth. Many advances in understanding space plasma phenomena have been linked to insight derived from theoretical modeling and/or laboratory experiments. Observations from space-borne instruments are typically interpreted using theoretical models developed to predict the properties and dynamics of space and astrophysical plasmas. The usefulness of customized laboratory experiments for providing confirmation of theory by identifying, isolating, and studying physical phenomena efficiently, quickly, and economically has been demonstrated in the past. The benefits of laboratory experiments to investigating space-plasma physics are their reproducibility, controllability, diagnosability, reconfigurability, and affordability compared to a satellite mission or rocket campaign. Certainly, the plasma being investigated in a laboratory device is quite different from that being measured by a spaceborne instrument; nevertheless, laboratory experiments discover unexpected phenomena, benchmark theoretical models, develop physical insight, establish observational signatures, and pioneer diagnostic techniques. Explicit reference to such beneficial laboratory contributions is occasionally left out of the citations in the space-physics literature in favor of theory-paper counterparts and, thus, the scientific support that laboratory results can provide to the development of space-relevant theoretical models is often under-recognized. It is unrealistic to expect the dimensional parameters corresponding to space plasma to be matchable in the laboratory. However, a laboratory experiment is considered well designed if the subset of parameters relevant to a specific process shares the same phenomenological regime as the subset of analogous space parameters, even if less important parameters are mismatched. Regime boundaries are assigned by normalizing a dimensional parameter to an appropriate reference or scale value to make it dimensionless and noting the values at which transitions occur in the physical behavior or approximations. An example of matching regimes for cold-plasma waves is finding a 45° diagonal line on the log--log CMA diagram along which lie both a laboratory-observed wave and a space-observed wave. In such a circumstance, a space plasma and a lab plasma will support the same kind of modes if the dimensionless parameters are scaled properly (Bellan 2006 Fundamentals of Plasma Physics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p 227). The plasma source, configuration geometry, and boundary conditions associated with a specific laboratory experiment are characteristic elements that affect the plasma and plasma processes that are being investigated. Space plasma is not exempt from an analogous set of constraining factors that likewise influence the phenomena that occur. Typically, each morphologically distinct region of space has associated with it plasma that is unique by virtue of the various mechanisms responsible for the plasma's presence there, as if the plasma were produced by a unique source. Boundary effects that typically constrain the possible parameter values to lie within one or more restricted ranges are inescapable in laboratory plasma. The goal of a laboratory experiment is to examine the relevant physics within these ranges and extrapolate the results to space conditions that may or may not be subject to any restrictions on the values of the plasma parameters. The interrelationship between laboratory and space plasma experiments has been cultivated at a low level and the potential scientific benefit in this area has yet to be realized. The few but excellent examples of joint papers, joint experiments, and directly relevant cross-disciplinary citations are a direct result of the emphasis placed on this interrelationship two decades ago. Building on this special issue Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion plans to create a dedicated webpage to highlight papers directly relevant to this field published either in the recent past or in the future. It is hoped that this resource will appeal to the readership in the laboratory-experiment and space-plasma communities and improve the cross-fertilization between them.

The Mission Planning Lab: A Visualization and Analysis Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daugherty, Sarah C.; Cervantes, Benjamin W.

2009-01-01

Simulation and visualization are powerful decision making tools that are time-saving and cost-effective. Space missions pose testing and e valuation challenges that can be overcome through modeling, simulatio n, and visualization of mission parameters. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration?s (NASA) Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) capi talizes on the benefits of modeling, simulation, and visualization to ols through a project initiative called The Mission Planning Lab (MPL ).

Continuous-time discrete-space models for animal movement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Alldredge, Mat W.

2015-01-01

The processes influencing animal movement and resource selection are complex and varied. Past efforts to model behavioral changes over time used Bayesian statistical models with variable parameter space, such as reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches, which are computationally demanding and inaccessible to many practitioners. We present a continuous-time discrete-space (CTDS) model of animal movement that can be fit using standard generalized linear modeling (GLM) methods. This CTDS approach allows for the joint modeling of location-based as well as directional drivers of movement. Changing behavior over time is modeled using a varying-coefficient framework which maintains the computational simplicity of a GLM approach, and variable selection is accomplished using a group lasso penalty. We apply our approach to a study of two mountain lions (Puma concolor) in Colorado, USA.

Virtual Construction of Space Habitats: Connecting Building Information Models (BIM) and SysML

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polit-Casillas, Raul; Howe, A. Scott

2013-01-01

Current trends in design, construction and management of complex projects make use of Building Information Models (BIM) connecting different types of data to geometrical models. This information model allow different types of analysis beyond pure graphical representations. Space habitats, regardless their size, are also complex systems that require the synchronization of many types of information and disciplines beyond mass, volume, power or other basic volumetric parameters. For this, the state-of-the-art model based systems engineering languages and processes - for instance SysML - represent a solid way to tackle this problem from a programmatic point of view. Nevertheless integrating this with a powerful geometrical architectural design tool with BIM capabilities could represent a change in the workflow and paradigm of space habitats design applicable to other aerospace complex systems. This paper shows some general findings and overall conclusions based on the ongoing research to create a design protocol and method that practically connects a systems engineering approach with a BIM architectural and engineering design as a complete Model Based Engineering approach. Therefore, one hypothetical example is created and followed during the design process. In order to make it possible this research also tackles the application of IFC categories and parameters in the aerospace field starting with the application upon the space habitats design as way to understand the information flow between disciplines and tools. By building virtual space habitats we can potentially improve in the near future the way more complex designs are developed from very little detail from concept to manufacturing.

Microgravity-Induced Physiological Fluid Redistribution: Computational Analysis to Assess Influence of Physiological Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, J. G.; Eke, Chika; Werner, C.; Nelson, E. S.; Mulugeta, L.; Feola, A.; Raykin, J.; Samuels, B.; Ethier, C. R.

2016-01-01

Space flight impacts human physiology in many ways, the most immediate being the marked cephalad (headward) shift of fluid upon introduction into the microgravity environment. This physiological response to microgravity points to the redistribution of blood and interstitial fluid as a major factor in the loss of venous tone and reduction in heart muscle efficiency which impact astronaut performance. In addition, researchers have hypothesized that a reduction in astronaut visual acuity, part of the Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome, is associated with this redistribution of fluid. VIIP arises within several months of beginning space flight and includes a variety of ophthalmic changes including posterior globe flattening, distension of the optic nerve sheath, and kinking of the optic nerve. We utilize a suite of lumped parameter models to simulate microgravity-induced fluid redistribution in the cardiovascular, central nervous and ocular systems to provide initial and boundary data to a 3D finite element simulation of ocular biomechanics in VIIP. Specifically, the lumped parameter cardiovascular model acts as the primary means of establishing how microgravity, and the associated lack of hydrostatic gradient, impacts fluid redistribution. The cardiovascular model consists of 16 compartments, including three cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) compartments, three cranial blood compartments, and 10 thoracic and lower limb blood compartments. To assess the models capability to address variations in physiological parameters, we completed a formal uncertainty and sensitivity analysis that evaluated the relative importance of 42 input parameters required in the model on relative compartment flows and compartment pressures. Utilizing the model in a pulsatile flow configuration, the sensitivity analysis identified the ten parameters that most influenced each compartment pressure. Generally, each compartment responded appropriately to parameter variations associated with itself and adjacent compartments. However, several unexpected interactions between components, such as between the choroid plexus and the lower capillaries, were found, and are due to simplifications in the formulation of the model. The analysis illustrates that highly influential parameters and those that have unique influences within the model formulation must be tightly controlled for successful model application.

Effect of reaction control system jet-flow field interactions on a 0.015 scale model space shuttle orbiter aerodynamic characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monta, W. J.; Rausch, J. R.

1973-01-01

The effects of the reaction control system (RCS) jet-flow field interactions on the space shuttle orbiter system during entry are discussed. The primary objective of the test program was to obtain data for the shuttle orbiter configuration to determine control amplification factors resulting from jet interaction between the RCS plumes and the external flow over the vehicle. A secondary objective was to provide data for comparison and improvement of analytic jet interaction prediction techniques. The test program was divided into two phases; (1) force and moment measurements were made with and without RCS blowing, investigating environment parameters (R sub e, Alpha, Beta), RCS plume parameters (Jet pressure ratio, momentum ratio and thrust level), and geometry parameters (RCS pod locations) on the orbiter model, (2) oil flow visualization tests were conducted on a dummy balance at the end of the test.

An analytical procedure and automated computer code used to design model nozzles which meet MSFC base pressure similarity parameter criteria. [space shuttle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sulyma, P. R.

1980-01-01

Fundamental equations and similarity definition and application are described as well as the computational steps of a computer program developed to design model nozzles for wind tunnel tests conducted to define power-on aerodynamic characteristics of the space shuttle over a range of ascent trajectory conditions. The computer code capabilities, a user's guide for the model nozzle design program, and the output format are examined. A program listing is included.

Space shuttle solid rocket booster cost-per-flight analysis technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forney, J. A.

1979-01-01

A cost per flight computer model is described which considers: traffic model, component attrition, hardware useful life, turnaround time for refurbishment, manufacturing rates, learning curves on the time to perform tasks, cost improvement curves on quantity hardware buys, inflation, spares philosophy, long lead, hardware funding requirements, and other logistics and scheduling constraints. Additional uses of the model include assessing the cost per flight impact of changing major space shuttle program parameters and searching for opportunities to make cost effective management decisions.

Exact static solutions for discrete phi4 models free of the Peierls-Nabarro barrier: discretized first-integral approach.

PubMed

Dmitriev, S V; Kevrekidis, P G; Yoshikawa, N; Frantzeskakis, D J

2006-10-01

We propose a generalization of the discrete Klein-Gordon models free of the Peierls-Nabarro barrier derived in Spreight [Nonlinearity 12, 1373 (1999)] and Barashenkov [Phys. Rev. E 72, 035602(R) (2005)], such that they support not only kinks but a one-parameter set of exact static solutions. These solutions can be obtained iteratively from a two-point nonlinear map whose role is played by the discretized first integral of the static Klein-Gordon field, as suggested by Dmitriev [J. Phys. A 38, 7617 (2005)]. We then discuss some discrete phi4 models free of the Peierls-Nabarro barrier and identify for them the full space of available static solutions, including those derived recently by Cooper [Phys. Rev. E 72, 036605 (2005)] but not limited to them. These findings are also relevant to standing wave solutions of discrete nonlinear Schrödinger models. We also study stability of the obtained solutions. As an interesting aside, we derive the list of solutions to the continuum phi4 equation that fill the entire two-dimensional space of parameters obtained as the continuum limit of the corresponding space of the discrete models.

Estimating fracture spacing from natural tracers in shale-gas production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, S. J.; McKenna, S. A.; Heath, J. E.; Gardner, P.

2012-12-01

Resource appraisal and long-term recovery potential of shale gas relies on the characteristics of the fracture networks created within the formation. Both well testing and analysis of micro-seismic data can provide information on fracture characteristics, but approaches that directly utilize observations of gas transport through the fractures are not well-developed. We examine transport of natural tracers and analyze the breakthrough curves (BTC's) of these tracers with a multi-rate mass transfer (MMT) model to elucidate fracture characteristics. The focus here is on numerical simulation studies to determine constraints on the ability to accurately estimate fracture network characteristics as a function of the diffusion coefficients of the natural tracers, the number and timing of observations, the flow rates from the well, and the noise in the observations. Traditional tracer testing approaches for dual-porosity systems analyze the BTC of an injected tracer to obtain fracture spacing considering a single spacing value. An alternative model is the MMT model where diffusive mass transfer occurs simultaneously over a range of matrix block sizes defined by a statistical distribution (e.g., log-normal, gamma, or power-law). The goal of the estimation is defining the parameters of the fracture spacing distribution. The MMT model has not yet been applied to analysis of natural in situ natural tracers. Natural tracers are omnipresent in the subsurface, potentially obviating the needed for introduced tracers, and could be used to improve upon fracture characteristics estimated from pressure transient and decline curve production analysis. Results of this study provide guidance for data collection and analysis of natural tracers in fractured shale formations. Parameter estimation on simulated BTC's will provide guidance on the necessary timing of BTC sampling in field experiments. The MMT model can result in non-unique or nonphysical parameter estimates. We address this with Bayesian estimation approaches that can define uncertainty in estimated parameters as a posterior probability distribution. We will also use Bayesian estimation to examine model identifiability (e.g., selecting between parametric distributions of fracture spacing) from various BTC's. Application of the MMT model to natural tracers and hydraulic fractures in shale will require extension of the model to account for partitioning of the tracers between multiple phases and different mass transfer behavior in mixed gas-liquid (e.g., oil or groundwater rich) systems. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Neutrino oscillation parameter sampling with MonteCUBES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blennow, Mattias; Fernandez-Martinez, Enrique

2010-01-01

We present MonteCUBES ("Monte Carlo Utility Based Experiment Simulator"), a software package designed to sample the neutrino oscillation parameter space through Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. MonteCUBES makes use of the GLoBES software so that the existing experiment definitions for GLoBES, describing long baseline and reactor experiments, can be used with MonteCUBES. MonteCUBES consists of two main parts: The first is a C library, written as a plug-in for GLoBES, implementing the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample the parameter space. The second part is a user-friendly graphical Matlab interface to easily read, analyze, plot and export the results of the parameter space sampling. Program summaryProgram title: MonteCUBES (Monte Carlo Utility Based Experiment Simulator) Catalogue identifier: AEFJ_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEFJ_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU General Public Licence No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 69 634 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 3 980 776 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C Computer: MonteCUBES builds and installs on 32 bit and 64 bit Linux systems where GLoBES is installed Operating system: 32 bit and 64 bit Linux RAM: Typically a few MBs Classification: 11.1 External routines: GLoBES [1,2] and routines/libraries used by GLoBES Subprograms used:Cat Id ADZI_v1_0, Title GLoBES, Reference CPC 177 (2007) 439 Nature of problem: Since neutrino masses do not appear in the standard model of particle physics, many models of neutrino masses also induce other types of new physics, which could affect the outcome of neutrino oscillation experiments. In general, these new physics imply high-dimensional parameter spaces that are difficult to explore using classical methods such as multi-dimensional projections and minimizations, such as those used in GLoBES [1,2]. Solution method: MonteCUBES is written as a plug-in to the GLoBES software [1,2] and provides the necessary methods to perform Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the parameter space. This allows an efficient sampling of the parameter space and has a complexity which does not grow exponentially with the parameter space dimension. The integration of the MonteCUBES package with the GLoBES software makes sure that the experimental definitions already in use by the community can also be used with MonteCUBES, while also lowering the learning threshold for users who already know GLoBES. Additional comments: A Matlab GUI for interpretation of results is included in the distribution. Running time: The typical running time varies depending on the dimensionality of the parameter space, the complexity of the experiment, and how well the parameter space should be sampled. The running time for our simulations [3] with 15 free parameters at a Neutrino Factory with O(10) samples varied from a few hours to tens of hours. References:P. Huber, M. Lindner, W. Winter, Comput. Phys. Comm. 167 (2005) 195, hep-ph/0407333. P. Huber, J. Kopp, M. Lindner, M. Rolinec, W. Winter, Comput. Phys. Comm. 177 (2007) 432, hep-ph/0701187. S. Antusch, M. Blennow, E. Fernandez-Martinez, J. Lopez-Pavon, arXiv:0903.3986 [hep-ph].

Fast and accurate fitting and filtering of noisy exponentials in Legendre space.

PubMed

Bao, Guobin; Schild, Detlev

2014-01-01

The parameters of experimentally obtained exponentials are usually found by least-squares fitting methods. Essentially, this is done by minimizing the mean squares sum of the differences between the data, most often a function of time, and a parameter-defined model function. Here we delineate a novel method where the noisy data are represented and analyzed in the space of Legendre polynomials. This is advantageous in several respects. First, parameter retrieval in the Legendre domain is typically two orders of magnitude faster than direct fitting in the time domain. Second, data fitting in a low-dimensional Legendre space yields estimates for amplitudes and time constants which are, on the average, more precise compared to least-squares-fitting with equal weights in the time domain. Third, the Legendre analysis of two exponentials gives satisfactory estimates in parameter ranges where least-squares-fitting in the time domain typically fails. Finally, filtering exponentials in the domain of Legendre polynomials leads to marked noise removal without the phase shift characteristic for conventional lowpass filters.

Effects of behavioral patterns and network topology structures on Parrondo’s paradox

PubMed Central

Ye, Ye; Cheong, Kang Hao; Cen, Yu-wan; Xie, Neng-gang

2016-01-01

A multi-agent Parrondo’s model based on complex networks is used in the current study. For Parrondo’s game A, the individual interaction can be categorized into five types of behavioral patterns: the Matthew effect, harmony, cooperation, poor-competition-rich-cooperation and a random mode. The parameter space of Parrondo’s paradox pertaining to each behavioral pattern, and the gradual change of the parameter space from a two-dimensional lattice to a random network and from a random network to a scale-free network was analyzed. The simulation results suggest that the size of the region of the parameter space that elicits Parrondo’s paradox is positively correlated with the heterogeneity of the degree distribution of the network. For two distinct sets of probability parameters, the microcosmic reasons underlying the occurrence of the paradox under the scale-free network are elaborated. Common interaction mechanisms of the asymmetric structure of game B, behavioral patterns and network topology are also revealed. PMID:27845430

Effects of behavioral patterns and network topology structures on Parrondo’s paradox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Ye; Cheong, Kang Hao; Cen, Yu-Wan; Xie, Neng-Gang

2016-11-01

A multi-agent Parrondo’s model based on complex networks is used in the current study. For Parrondo’s game A, the individual interaction can be categorized into five types of behavioral patterns: the Matthew effect, harmony, cooperation, poor-competition-rich-cooperation and a random mode. The parameter space of Parrondo’s paradox pertaining to each behavioral pattern, and the gradual change of the parameter space from a two-dimensional lattice to a random network and from a random network to a scale-free network was analyzed. The simulation results suggest that the size of the region of the parameter space that elicits Parrondo’s paradox is positively correlated with the heterogeneity of the degree distribution of the network. For two distinct sets of probability parameters, the microcosmic reasons underlying the occurrence of the paradox under the scale-free network are elaborated. Common interaction mechanisms of the asymmetric structure of game B, behavioral patterns and network topology are also revealed.

How Complex, Probable, and Predictable is Genetically Driven Red Queen Chaos?

PubMed

Duarte, Jorge; Rodrigues, Carla; Januário, Cristina; Martins, Nuno; Sardanyés, Josep

2015-12-01

Coevolution between two antagonistic species has been widely studied theoretically for both ecologically- and genetically-driven Red Queen dynamics. A typical outcome of these systems is an oscillatory behavior causing an endless series of one species adaptation and others counter-adaptation. More recently, a mathematical model combining a three-species food chain system with an adaptive dynamics approach revealed genetically driven chaotic Red Queen coevolution. In the present article, we analyze this mathematical model mainly focusing on the impact of species rates of evolution (mutation rates) in the dynamics. Firstly, we analytically proof the boundedness of the trajectories of the chaotic attractor. The complexity of the coupling between the dynamical variables is quantified using observability indices. By using symbolic dynamics theory, we quantify the complexity of genetically driven Red Queen chaos computing the topological entropy of existing one-dimensional iterated maps using Markov partitions. Co-dimensional two bifurcation diagrams are also built from the period ordering of the orbits of the maps. Then, we study the predictability of the Red Queen chaos, found in narrow regions of mutation rates. To extend the previous analyses, we also computed the likeliness of finding chaos in a given region of the parameter space varying other model parameters simultaneously. Such analyses allowed us to compute a mean predictability measure for the system in the explored region of the parameter space. We found that genetically driven Red Queen chaos, although being restricted to small regions of the analyzed parameter space, might be highly unpredictable.

Proceedings of the Workshop on Applications of Distributed System Theory to the Control of Large Space Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G. (Editor)

1983-01-01

Two general themes in the control of large space structures are addressed: control theory for distributed parameter systems and distributed control for systems requiring spatially-distributed multipoint sensing and actuation. Topics include modeling and control, stabilization, and estimation and identification.

Demonstration of a 3D vision algorithm for space applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Defigueiredo, Rui J. P. (Editor)

1987-01-01

This paper reports an extension of the MIAG algorithm for recognition and motion parameter determination of general 3-D polyhedral objects based on model matching techniques and using movement invariants as features of object representation. Results of tests conducted on the algorithm under conditions simulating space conditions are presented.

Equilibrium points of the tilted perfect fluid Bianchi VIh state space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apostolopoulos, Pantelis S.

2005-05-01

We present the full set of evolution equations for the spatially homogeneous cosmologies of type VIh filled with a tilted perfect fluid and we provide the corresponding equilibrium points of the resulting dynamical state space. It is found that only when the group parameter satisfies h > -1 a self-similar solution exists. In particular we show that for h > -{1/9} there exists a self-similar equilibrium point provided that γ ∈ ({2(3+sqrt{-h})/5+3sqrt{-h}},{3/2}) whereas for h < -{frac 19} the state parameter belongs to the interval γ ∈(1,{2(3+sqrt{-h})/5+3sqrt{-h}}). This family of new exact self-similar solutions belongs to the subclass nαα = 0 having non-zero vorticity. In both cases the equilibrium points have a six-dimensional stable manifold and may act as future attractors at least for the models satisfying nαα = 0. Also we give the exact form of the self-similar metrics in terms of the state and group parameter. As an illustrative example we provide the explicit form of the corresponding self-similar radiation model (γ = {frac 43}), parametrised by the group parameter h. Finally we show that there are no tilted self-similar models of type III and irrotational models of type VIh.

Size-density scaling in protists and the links between consumer-resource interaction parameters.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Vasseur, David A

2012-11-01

Recent work indicates that the interaction between body-size-dependent demographic processes can generate macroecological patterns such as the scaling of population density with body size. In this study, we evaluate this possibility for grazing protists and also test whether demographic parameters in these models are correlated after controlling for body size. We compiled data on the body-size dependence of consumer-resource interactions and population density for heterotrophic protists grazing algae in laboratory studies. We then used nested dynamic models to predict both the height and slope of the scaling relationship between population density and body size for these protists. We also controlled for consumer size and assessed links between model parameters. Finally, we used the models and the parameter estimates to assess the individual- and population-level dependence of resource use on body-size and prey-size selection. The predicted size-density scaling for all models matched closely to the observed scaling, and the simplest model was sufficient to predict the pattern. Variation around the mean size-density scaling relationship may be generated by variation in prey productivity and area of capture, but residuals are relatively insensitive to variation in prey size selection. After controlling for body size, many consumer-resource interaction parameters were correlated, and a positive correlation between residual prey size selection and conversion efficiency neutralizes the apparent fitness advantage of taking large prey. Our results indicate that widespread community-level patterns can be explained with simple population models that apply consistently across a range of sizes. They also indicate that the parameter space governing the dynamics and the steady states in these systems is structured such that some parts of the parameter space are unlikely to represent real systems. Finally, predator-prey size ratios represent a kind of conundrum, because they are widely observed but apparently have little influence on population size and fitness, at least at this level of organization. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Validation for Global Solar Wind Prediction Using Ulysses Comparison: Multiple Coronal and Heliospheric Models Installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jian, L. K.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; Jackson, B.; Yu, H.-S.; Riley, P.; Sokolov, I. V.

2016-01-01

The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, wehave quantitatively assessed the models capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs.The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

Validation for global solar wind prediction using Ulysses comparison: Multiple coronal and heliospheric models installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, L. K.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; Jackson, B.; Yu, H.-S.; Riley, P.; Sokolov, I. V.

2016-08-01

The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, we have quantitatively assessed the models' capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs. The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

A Multiphase Model for the Intracluster Medium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagai, Daisuke; Sulkanen, Martin E.; Evrard, August E.

1999-01-01

Constraints on the clustered mass density of the universe derived from the observed population mean intracluster gas fraction of x-ray clusters may be biased by reliance on a single-phase assumption for the thermodynamic structure of the intracluster medium (ICM). We propose a descriptive model for multiphase structure in which a spherically symmetric ICM contains isobaric density perturbations with a radially dependent variance. Fixing the x-ray emission and emission weighted temperature, we explore two independently observable signatures of the model in the parameter space. For bremsstrahlung dominated emission, the central Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) decrement in the multiphase case is increased over the single-phase case and multiphase x-ray spectra in the range 0.1-20 keV are flatter in the continuum and exhibit stronger low energy emission lines than their single-phase counterpart. We quantify these effects for a fiducial 10e8 K cluster and demonstrate how the combination of SZ and x-ray spectroscopy can be used to identify a preferred location in the plane of the model parameter space. From these parameters the correct value of mean intracluster gas fraction in the multiphase model results, allowing an unbiased estimate of clustered mass density to he recovered.

Alpha-canonical form representation of the open loop dynamics of the Space Shuttle main engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duyar, Almet; Eldem, Vasfi; Merrill, Walter C.; Guo, Ten-Huei

1991-01-01

A parameter and structure estimation technique for multivariable systems is used to obtain a state space representation of open loop dynamics of the space shuttle main engine in alpha-canonical form. The parameterization being used is both minimal and unique. The simplified linear model may be used for fault detection studies and control system design and development.

A short-term and high-resolution distribution system load forecasting approach using support vector regression with hybrid parameters optimization

DOE PAGES

Jiang, Huaiguang; Zhang, Yingchen; Muljadi, Eduard; ...

2016-01-01

This paper proposes an approach for distribution system load forecasting, which aims to provide highly accurate short-term load forecasting with high resolution utilizing a support vector regression (SVR) based forecaster and a two-step hybrid parameters optimization method. Specifically, because the load profiles in distribution systems contain abrupt deviations, a data normalization is designed as the pretreatment for the collected historical load data. Then an SVR model is trained by the load data to forecast the future load. For better performance of SVR, a two-step hybrid optimization algorithm is proposed to determine the best parameters. In the first step of themore » hybrid optimization algorithm, a designed grid traverse algorithm (GTA) is used to narrow the parameters searching area from a global to local space. In the second step, based on the result of the GTA, particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to determine the best parameters in the local parameter space. After the best parameters are determined, the SVR model is used to forecast the short-term load deviation in the distribution system. The performance of the proposed approach is compared to some classic methods in later sections of the paper.« less

Effects of spatial constraints on channel network topology: Implications for geomorphological inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabral, Mariza Castanheira De Moura Da Costa

In the fifty-two years since Robert Horton's 1945 pioneering quantitative description of channel network planform (or plan view morphology), no conclusive findings have been presented that permit inference of geomorphological processes from any measures of network planform. All measures of network planform studied exhibit limited geographic variability across different environments. Horton (1945), Langbein et al. (1947), Schumm (1956), Hack (1957), Melton (1958), and Gray (1961) established various "laws" of network planform, that is, statistical relationships between different variables which have limited variability. A wide variety of models which have been proposed to simulate the growth of channel networks in time over a landsurface are generally also in agreement with the above planform laws. An explanation is proposed for the generality of the channel network planform laws. Channel networks must be space filling, that is, they must extend over the landscape to drain every hillslope, leaving no large undrained areas, and with no crossing of channels, often achieving a roughly uniform drainage density in a given environment. It is shown that the space-filling constraint can reduce the sensitivity of planform variables to different network growth models, and it is proposed that this constraint may determine the planform laws. The "Q model" of network growth of Van Pelt and Verwer (1985) is used to generate samples of networks. Sensitivity to the model parameter Q is markedly reduced when the networks generated are required to be space filling. For a wide variety of Q values, the space-filling networks are in approximate agreement with the various channel network planform laws. Additional constraints, including of energy efficiency, were not studied but may further reduce the variability of planform laws. Inference of model parameter Q from network topology is successful only in networks not subject to spatial constraints. In space-filling networks, for a wide range of Q values, the maximal-likelihood Q parameter value is generally in the vicinity of 1/2, which yields topological randomness. It is proposed that space filling originates the appearance of randomness in channel network topology, and may cause difficulties to geomorphological inference from network planform.

Bianchi type-I domain walls with negative constant deceleration parameter in Brans-Dicke theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katore, S. D.

2011-04-01

Bianchi type-I space-time is considered in the presence of a domain walls source in the scalar-tensor theory of gravitation proposed by Brans and Dicke (C.H. Brans and R.H. Dicke, Phys. Rev. 24, 925 (1961)). With the help of the special law of variation for Hubble's parameter proposed by Bermann (M.S. Berman, Nuovo Cimento B 74, 182 (1983)) a cosmological model with negative constant deceleration parameter is obtained in the presence of domain walls. Some physical properties of the model are also discussed.

Study of Far—Field Directivity Pattern for Linear Arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ana-Maria, Chiselev; Luminita, Moraru; Laura, Onose

2011-10-01

A model to calculate directivity pattern in far field is developed in this paper. Based on this model, the three-dimensional beam pattern is introduced and analyzed in order to investigate geometric parameters of linear arrays and their influences on the directivity pattern. Simulations in azimuthal plane are made to highlight the influence of transducers parameters, including number of elements and inter-element spacing. It is true that these parameters are important factors that influence the directivity pattern and the appearance of side-lobes for linear arrays.

Population Synthesis of Radio and Y-ray Millisecond Pulsars Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonthier, Peter L.; Billman, C.; Harding, A. K.

2013-04-01

We present preliminary results of a new population synthesis of millisecond pulsars (MSP) from the Galactic disk using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to better understand the model parameter space. We include empirical radio and γ-ray luminosity models that are dependent on the pulsar period and period derivative with freely varying exponents. The magnitudes of the model luminosities are adjusted to reproduce the number of MSPs detected by a group of ten radio surveys and by Fermi, predicting the MSP birth rate in the Galaxy. We follow a similar set of assumptions that we have used in previous, more constrained Monte Carlo simulations. The parameters associated with the birth distributions such as those for the accretion rate, magnetic field and period distributions are also free to vary. With the large set of free parameters, we employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to explore the large and small worlds of the parameter space. We present preliminary comparisons of the simulated and detected distributions of radio and γ-ray pulsar characteristics. We express our gratitude for the generous support of the National Science Foundation (REU and RUI), Fermi Guest Investigator Program and the NASA Astrophysics Theory and Fundamental Program.

Systematic simulations of modified gravity: chameleon models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brax, Philippe; Davis, Anne-Christine; Li, Baojiu

2013-04-01

In this work we systematically study the linear and nonlinear structure formation in chameleon theories of modified gravity, using a generic parameterisation which describes a large class of models using only 4 parameters. For this we have modified the N-body simulation code ecosmog to perform a total of 65 simulations for different models and parameter values, including the default ΛCDM. These simulations enable us to explore a significant portion of the parameter space. We have studied the effects of modified gravity on the matter power spectrum and mass function, and found a rich and interesting phenomenology where the difference withmore » the ΛCDM paradigm cannot be reproduced by a linear analysis even on scales as large as k ∼ 0.05 hMpc{sup −1}, since the latter incorrectly assumes that the modification of gravity depends only on the background matter density. Our results show that the chameleon screening mechanism is significantly more efficient than other mechanisms such as the dilaton and symmetron, especially in high-density regions and at early times, and can serve as a guidance to determine the parts of the chameleon parameter space which are cosmologically interesting and thus merit further studies in the future.« less

Dynamics of large-scale brain activity in normal arousal states and epileptic seizures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, P. A.; Rennie, C. J.; Rowe, D. L.

2002-04-01

Links between electroencephalograms (EEGs) and underlying aspects of neurophysiology and anatomy are poorly understood. Here a nonlinear continuum model of large-scale brain electrical activity is used to analyze arousal states and their stability and nonlinear dynamics for physiologically realistic parameters. A simple ordered arousal sequence in a reduced parameter space is inferred and found to be consistent with experimentally determined parameters of waking states. Instabilities arise at spectral peaks of the major clinically observed EEG rhythms-mainly slow wave, delta, theta, alpha, and sleep spindle-with each instability zone lying near its most common experimental precursor arousal states in the reduced space. Theta, alpha, and spindle instabilities evolve toward low-dimensional nonlinear limit cycles that correspond closely to EEGs of petit mal seizures for theta instability, and grand mal seizures for the other types. Nonlinear stimulus-induced entrainment and seizures are also seen, EEG spectra and potentials evoked by stimuli are reproduced, and numerous other points of experimental agreement are found. Inverse modeling enables physiological parameters underlying observed EEGs to be determined by a new, noninvasive route. This model thus provides a single, powerful framework for quantitative understanding of a wide variety of brain phenomena.

THE LITTLEST HIGGS MODEL AND ONE-LOOP ELECTROWEAK PRECISION CONSTRAINTS.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CHEN, M.C.; DAWSON,S.

2004-06-16

We present in this talk the one-loop electroweak precision constraints in the Littlest Higgs model, including the logarithmically enhanced contributions from both fermion and scalar loops. We find the one-loop contributions are comparable to the tree level corrections in some regions of parameter space. A low cutoff scale is allowed for a non-zero triplet VEV. Constraints on various other parameters in the model are also discussed. The role of triplet scalars in constructing a consistent renormalization scheme is emphasized.

Hamilton's Equations with Euler Parameters for Rigid Body Dynamics Modeling. Chapter 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shivarama, Ravishankar; Fahrenthold, Eric P.

2004-01-01

A combination of Euler parameter kinematics and Hamiltonian mechanics provides a rigid body dynamics model well suited for use in strongly nonlinear problems involving arbitrarily large rotations. The model is unconstrained, free of singularities, includes a general potential energy function and a minimum set of momentum variables, and takes an explicit state space form convenient for numerical implementation. The general formulation may be specialized to address particular applications, as illustrated in several three dimensional example problems.

Channel Characterization for Free-Space Optical Communications

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

parameters. From the path- average parameters, a 2nC profile model, called the HAP model, was constructed so that the entire channel from air to ground...SR), both of which are required to estimate the Power in the Bucket (PIB) and Power in the Fiber (PIF) associated with the FOENEX data beam. UCF was...of the path-average values of 2nC , the resulting HAP 2nC profile model led to values of ground level 2 nC that compared very well with actual

FitSKIRT: genetic algorithms to automatically fit dusty galaxies with a Monte Carlo radiative transfer code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Geyter, G.; Baes, M.; Fritz, J.; Camps, P.

2013-02-01

We present FitSKIRT, a method to efficiently fit radiative transfer models to UV/optical images of dusty galaxies. These images have the advantage that they have better spatial resolution compared to FIR/submm data. FitSKIRT uses the GAlib genetic algorithm library to optimize the output of the SKIRT Monte Carlo radiative transfer code. Genetic algorithms prove to be a valuable tool in handling the multi- dimensional search space as well as the noise induced by the random nature of the Monte Carlo radiative transfer code. FitSKIRT is tested on artificial images of a simulated edge-on spiral galaxy, where we gradually increase the number of fitted parameters. We find that we can recover all model parameters, even if all 11 model parameters are left unconstrained. Finally, we apply the FitSKIRT code to a V-band image of the edge-on spiral galaxy NGC 4013. This galaxy has been modeled previously by other authors using different combinations of radiative transfer codes and optimization methods. Given the different models and techniques and the complexity and degeneracies in the parameter space, we find reasonable agreement between the different models. We conclude that the FitSKIRT method allows comparison between different models and geometries in a quantitative manner and minimizes the need of human intervention and biasing. The high level of automation makes it an ideal tool to use on larger sets of observed data.

APPLICATION OF A BIP CONSTRAINED OPTIMIZATION MODEL COMBINED WITH NASA's ATLAS MODEL TO OPTIMIZE THE SOCIETAL BENEFITS OF THE USA's INTERNATIONAL SPACE EXPLORATION AND UTILIZATION INITIATIVE OF 1/14/04

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgenthaler, George W.; Glover, Fred W.; Woodcock, Gordon R.; Laguna, Manuel

2005-01-01

The 1/14/04 USA Space Exploratiofltilization Initiative invites all Space-faring Nations, all Space User Groups in Science, Space Entrepreneuring, Advocates of Robotic and Human Space Exploration, Space Tourism and Colonization Promoters, etc., to join an International Space Partnership. With more Space-faring Nations and Space User Groups each year, such a Partnership would require Multi-year (35 yr.-45 yr.) Space Mission Planning. With each Nation and Space User Group demanding priority for its missions, one needs a methodology for obiectively selecting the best mission sequences to be added annually to this 45 yr. Moving Space Mission Plan. How can this be done? Planners have suggested building a Reusable, Sustainable, Space Transportation Infrastructure (RSSn) to increase Mission synergism, reduce cost, and increase scientific and societal returns from this Space Initiative. Morgenthaler and Woodcock presented a Paper at the 55th IAC, Vancouver B.C., Canada, entitled Constrained Optimization Models For Optimizing Multi - Year Space Programs. This Paper showed that a Binary Integer Programming (BIP) Constrained Optimization Model combined with the NASA ATLAS Cost and Space System Operational Parameter Estimating Model has the theoretical capability to solve such problems. IAA Commission III, Space Technology and Space System Development, in its ACADEMY DAY meeting at Vancouver, requested that the Authors and NASA experts find several Space Exploration Architectures (SEAS), apply the combined BIP/ATLAS Models, and report the results at the 56th Fukuoka IAC. While the mathematical Model is in Ref.[2] this Paper presents the Application saga of that effort.

Approximate solution of space and time fractional higher order phase field equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamseldeen, S.

2018-03-01

This paper is concerned with a class of space and time fractional partial differential equation (STFDE) with Riesz derivative in space and Caputo in time. The proposed STFDE is considered as a generalization of a sixth-order partial phase field equation. We describe the application of the optimal homotopy analysis method (OHAM) to obtain an approximate solution for the suggested fractional initial value problem. An averaged-squared residual error function is defined and used to determine the optimal convergence control parameter. Two numerical examples are studied, considering periodic and non-periodic initial conditions, to justify the efficiency and the accuracy of the adopted iterative approach. The dependence of the solution on the order of the fractional derivative in space and time and model parameters is investigated.

Using internal discharge data in a distributed conceptual model to reduce uncertainty in streamflow simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero, J.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.; Lundin, L.

2011-12-01

Distributed hydrological models are important tools in water management as they account for the spatial variability of the hydrological data, as well as being able to produce spatially distributed outputs. They can directly incorporate and assess potential changes in the characteristics of our basins. A recognized problem for models in general is equifinality, which is only exacerbated for distributed models who tend to have a large number of parameters. We need to deal with the fundamentally ill-posed nature of the problem that such models force us to face, i.e. a large number of parameters and very few variables that can be used to constrain them, often only the catchment discharge. There is a growing but yet limited literature showing how the internal states of a distributed model can be used to calibrate/validate its predictions. In this paper, a distributed version of WASMOD, a conceptual rainfall runoff model with only three parameters, combined with a routing algorithm based on the high-resolution HydroSHEDS data was used to simulate the discharge in the Paso La Ceiba basin in Honduras. The parameter space was explored using Monte-Carlo simulations and the region of space containing the parameter-sets that were considered behavioral according to two different criteria was delimited using the geometric concept of alpha-shapes. The discharge data from five internal sub-basins was used to aid in the calibration of the model and to answer the following questions: Can this information improve the simulations at the outlet of the catchment, or decrease their uncertainty? Also, after reducing the number of model parameters needing calibration through sensitivity analysis: Is it possible to relate them to basin characteristics? The analysis revealed that in most cases the internal discharge data can be used to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge at the outlet, albeit with little improvement in the overall simulation results.

Uncertainty, Sensitivity Analysis, and Causal Identification in the Arctic using a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble of the HiLAT Climate Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark

Coupled climate models have a large number of input parameters that can affect output uncertainty. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of sea ice proper:es and Arc:c related climate variables to 5 parameters in the HiLAT climate model: air-ocean turbulent exchange parameter (C), conversion of water vapor to clouds (cldfrc_rhminl) and of ice crystals to snow (micro_mg_dcs), snow thermal conduc:vity (ksno), and maximum snow grain size (rsnw_mlt). We used an elementary effect (EE) approach to rank their importance for output uncertainty. EE is an extension of one-at-a-time sensitivity analyses, but it is more efficient in sampling multi-dimensional parameter spaces. We lookedmore » for emerging relationships among climate variables across the model ensemble, and used causal discovery algorithms to establish potential pathways for those relationships.« less

A Simple Model for the Orbital Debris Environment in GEO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anilkumar, A. K.; Ananthasayanam, M. R.; Subba Rao, P. V.

The increase of space debris and its threat to commercial space activities in the Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) predictably cause concern regarding the environment over the long term. A variety of studies regarding space debris such as detection, modeling, protection and mitigation measures, is being pursued for the past couple of decades. Due to the absence of atmospheric drag to remove debris in GEO and the increasing number of utility satellites therein, the number of objects in GEO will continue to increase. The characterization of the GEO environment is critical for risk assessment and protection of future satellites and also to incorporate effective debris mitigation measures in the design and operations. The debris measurements in GEO have been limited to objects with size more than 60 cm. This paper provides an engineering model of the GEO environment by utilizing the philosophy and approach as laid out for the SIMPLE model proposed recently for LEO by the authors. The present study analyses the statistical characteristics of the GEO catalogued objects in order to arrive at a model for the GEO space debris environment. It is noted that the catalogued objects, as of now of around 800, by USSPACECOM across the years 1998 to 2004 have the same semi major axis mode (highest number density) around 35750 km above the earth. After removing the objects in the small bin around the mode, (35700, 35800) km containing around 40 percent (a value that is nearly constant across the years) of the objects, the number density of the other objects follow a single Laplace distribution with two parameters, namely location and scale. Across the years the location parameter of the above distribution does not significantly vary but the scale parameter shows a definite trend. These observations are successfully utilized in proposing a simple model for the GEO debris environment. References Ananthasayanam, M. R., Anil Kumar, A. K., and Subba Rao, P. V., ``A New Stochastic Impressionistic Low Earth (SIMPLE) Model of the Space Debris Scenario'', Conference Abstract COSPAR 02-A-01772, 2002. Ananthasayanam, M. R., Anilkumar, A. K., Subba Rao, P. V., and V. Adimurthy, ``Characterization of Eccentricity and Ballistic Coefficients of Space Debris in Altitude and Perigee Bins'', IAC-03-IAA5.p.04, Presented at the IAF Conference, Bremen, October 2003 and also to be published in the Proceedings of IAF Conference, Science and Technology Series, 2003.

An online spatio-temporal prediction model for dengue fever epidemic in Kaohsiung,Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Ming-Hung; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Angulo, Jose; Christakos, George

2013-04-01

Dengue Fever (DF) is one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases in tropical and subtropical areas. DF epidemics occur in Taiwan annually especially during summer and fall seasons. Kaohsiung city has been one of the major DF hotspots in decades. The emergence and re-emergence of the DF epidemic is complex and can be influenced by various factors including space-time dynamics of human and vector populations and virus serotypes as well as the associated uncertainties. This study integrates a stochastic space-time "Susceptible-Infected-Recovered" model under Bayesian maximum entropy framework (BME-SIR) to perform real-time prediction of disease diffusion across space-time. The proposed model is applied for spatiotemporal prediction of the DF epidemic at Kaohsiung city during 2002 when the historical series of high DF cases was recorded. The online prediction by BME-SIR model updates the parameters of SIR model and infected cases across districts over time. Results show that the proposed model is rigorous to initial guess of unknown model parameters, i.e. transmission and recovery rates, which can depend upon the virus serotypes and various human interventions. This study shows that spatial diffusion can be well characterized by BME-SIR model, especially at the district surrounding the disease outbreak locations. The prediction performance at DF hotspots, i.e. Cianjhen and Sanmin, can be degraded due to the implementation of various disease control strategies during the epidemics. The proposed online disease prediction BME-SIR model can provide the governmental agency with a valuable reference to timely identify, control, and efficiently prevent DF spread across space-time.

Model error estimation for distributed systems described by elliptic equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.

1983-01-01

A function space approach is used to develop a theory for estimation of the errors inherent in an elliptic partial differential equation model for a distributed parameter system. By establishing knowledge of the inevitable deficiencies in the model, the error estimates provide a foundation for updating the model. The function space solution leads to a specification of a method for computation of the model error estimates and development of model error analysis techniques for comparison between actual and estimated errors. The paper summarizes the model error estimation approach as well as an application arising in the area of modeling for static shape determination of large flexible systems.

Numerical scheme approximating solution and parameters in a beam equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferdinand, Robert R.

2003-12-01

We present a mathematical model which describes vibration in a metallic beam about its equilibrium position. This model takes the form of a nonlinear second-order (in time) and fourth-order (in space) partial differential equation with boundary and initial conditions. A finite-element Galerkin approximation scheme is used to estimate model solution. Infinite-dimensional model parameters are then estimated numerically using an inverse method procedure which involves the minimization of a least-squares cost functional. Numerical results are presented and future work to be done is discussed.

A Model for the Vortex Pair Associated with a Jet in a Cross Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellers, William L.

1975-01-01

A model is presented for the contrarotating vortex pair that is formed by a round, turbulent, subsonic jet directed normally into a uniform, subsonic cross flow. The model consists of a set of algebraic equations that describe the properties of the vortex pair as a function of their location in the jet plume. The parameters of the model are physical characteristics of the vortices such as the vortex strength, spacing, and core size. These parameters are determined by velocity measurements at selective points in the jet plume.

Level density inputs in nuclear reaction codes and the role of the spin cutoff parameter

DOE PAGES

Voinov, A. V.; Grimes, S. M.; Brune, C. R.; ...

2014-09-03

Here, the proton spectrum from the 57Fe(α,p) reaction has been measured and analyzed with the Hauser-Feshbach model of nuclear reactions. Different input level density models have been tested. It was found that the best description is achieved with either Fermi-gas or constant temperature model functions obtained by fitting them to neutron resonance spacing and to discrete levels and using the spin cutoff parameter with much weaker excitation energy dependence than it is predicted by the Fermi-gas model.

On The Computation Of The Best-fit Okada-type Tsunami Source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miranda, J. M. A.; Luis, J. M. F.; Baptista, M. A.

2017-12-01

The forward simulation of earthquake-induced tsunamis usually assumes that the initial sea surface elevation mimics the co-seismic deformation of the ocean bottom described by a simple "Okada-type" source (rectangular fault with constant slip in a homogeneous elastic half space). This approach is highly effective, in particular in far-field conditions. With this assumption, and a given set of tsunami waveforms recorded by deep sea pressure sensors and (or) coastal tide stations it is possible to deduce the set of parameters of the Okada-type solution that best fits a set of sea level observations. To do this, we build a "space of possible tsunami sources-solution space". Each solution consists of a combination of parameters: earthquake magnitude, length, width, slip, depth and angles - strike, rake, and dip. To constrain the number of possible solutions we use the earthquake parameters defined by seismology and establish a range of possible values for each parameter. We select the "best Okada source" by comparison of the results of direct tsunami modeling using the solution space of tsunami sources. However, direct tsunami modeling is a time-consuming process for the whole solution space. To overcome this problem, we use a precomputed database of Empirical Green Functions to compute the tsunami waveforms resulting from unit water sources and search which one best matches the observations. In this study, we use as a test case the Solomon Islands tsunami of 6 February 2013 caused by a magnitude 8.0 earthquake. The "best Okada" source is the solution that best matches the tsunami recorded at six DART stations in the area. We discuss the differences between the initial seismic solution and the final one obtained from tsunami data This publication received funding of FCT-project UID/GEO/50019/2013-Instituto Dom Luiz.

Probing Higgs-radion mixing in warped models through complementary searches at the LHC and the ILC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Mariana; Huitu, Katri; Maitra, Ushoshi; Patra, Monalisa

2016-09-01

We consider the Higgs-radion mixing in the context of warped space extradimensional models with custodial symmetry and investigate the prospects of detecting the mixed radion. Custodial symmetries allow the Kaluza-Klein excitations to be lighter and protect Z b b ¯ to be in agreement with experimental constraints. We perform a complementary study of discovery reaches of the Higgs-radion mixed state at the 13 and 14 TeV LHC and at the 500 and 1000 GeV International Linear Collider (ILC). We carry out a comprehensive analysis of the most significant production and decay modes of the mixed radion in the 80 GeV-1 TeV mass range and indicate the parameter space that can be probed at the LHC and the ILC. There exists a region of the parameter space which can be probed, at the LHC, through the diphoton channel even for a relatively low luminosity of 50 fb-1 . The reach of the four-lepton final state in probing the parameter space is also studied in the context of 14 TeV LHC, for a luminosity of 1000 fb-1 . At the ILC, with an integrated luminosity of 500 fb-1 , we analyze the Z -radion associated production and the W W fusion production, followed by the radion decay into b b ¯ and W+W-. The W W fusion production is favored over the Z -radion associated channel in probing regions of the parameter space beyond the LHC reach. The complementary study at the LHC and the ILC is useful both for the discovery of the radion and the understanding of its mixing sector.

Population synthesis of radio and gamma-ray millisecond pulsars using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonthier, Peter L.; Koh, Yew-Meng; Kust Harding, Alice

2016-04-01

We present preliminary results of a new population synthesis of millisecond pulsars (MSP) from the Galactic disk using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to better understand the model parameter space. We include empirical radio and gamma-ray luminosity models that are dependent on the pulsar period and period derivative with freely varying exponents. The magnitudes of the model luminosities are adjusted to reproduce the number of MSPs detected by a group of thirteen radio surveys as well as the MSP birth rate in the Galaxy and the number of MSPs detected by Fermi. We explore various high-energy emission geometries like the slot gap, outer gap, two pole caustic and pair starved polar cap models. The parameters associated with the birth distributions for the mass accretion rate, magnetic field, and period distributions are well constrained. With the set of four free parameters, we employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to explore the model parameter space. We present preliminary comparisons of the simulated and detected distributions of radio and gamma-ray pulsar characteristics. We estimate the contribution of MSPs to the diffuse gamma-ray background with a special focus on the Galactic Center.We express our gratitude for the generous support of the National Science Foundation (RUI: AST-1009731), Fermi Guest Investigator Program and the NASA Astrophysics Theory and Fundamental Program (NNX09AQ71G).

Modelling non-linear effects of dark energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, Benjamin; Baldi, Marco; Pourtsidou, Alkistis

2018-04-01

We investigate the capabilities of perturbation theory in capturing non-linear effects of dark energy. We test constant and evolving w models, as well as models involving momentum exchange between dark energy and dark matter. Specifically, we compare perturbative predictions at 1-loop level against N-body results for four non-standard equations of state as well as varying degrees of momentum exchange between dark energy and dark matter. The interaction is modelled phenomenologically using a time dependent drag term in the Euler equation. We make comparisons at the level of the matter power spectrum and the redshift space monopole and quadrupole. The multipoles are modelled using the Taruya, Nishimichi and Saito (TNS) redshift space spectrum. We find perturbation theory does very well in capturing non-linear effects coming from dark sector interaction. We isolate and quantify the 1-loop contribution coming from the interaction and from the non-standard equation of state. We find the interaction parameter ξ amplifies scale dependent signatures in the range of scales considered. Non-standard equations of state also give scale dependent signatures within this same regime. In redshift space the match with N-body is improved at smaller scales by the addition of the TNS free parameter σv. To quantify the importance of modelling the interaction, we create mock data sets for varying values of ξ using perturbation theory. This data is given errors typical of Stage IV surveys. We then perform a likelihood analysis using the first two multipoles on these sets and a ξ=0 modelling, ignoring the interaction. We find the fiducial growth parameter f is generally recovered even for very large values of ξ both at z=0.5 and z=1. The ξ=0 modelling is most biased in its estimation of f for the phantom w=‑1.1 case.

Theory of the lattice Boltzmann Method: Dispersion, Dissipation, Isotropy, Galilean Invariance, and Stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lallemand, Pierre; Luo, Li-Shi

2000-01-01

The generalized hydrodynamics (the wave vector dependence of the transport coefficients) of a generalized lattice Boltzmann equation (LBE) is studied in detail. The generalized lattice Boltzmann equation is constructed in moment space rather than in discrete velocity space. The generalized hydrodynamics of the model is obtained by solving the dispersion equation of the linearized LBE either analytically by using perturbation technique or numerically. The proposed LBE model has a maximum number of adjustable parameters for the given set of discrete velocities. Generalized hydrodynamics characterizes dispersion, dissipation (hyper-viscosities), anisotropy, and lack of Galilean invariance of the model, and can be applied to select the values of the adjustable parameters which optimize the properties of the model. The proposed generalized hydrodynamic analysis also provides some insights into stability and proper initial conditions for LBE simulations. The stability properties of some 2D LBE models are analyzed and compared with each other in the parameter space of the mean streaming velocity and the viscous relaxation time. The procedure described in this work can be applied to analyze other LBE models. As examples, LBE models with various interpolation schemes are analyzed. Numerical results on shear flow with an initially discontinuous velocity profile (shock) with or without a constant streaming velocity are shown to demonstrate the dispersion effects in the LBE model; the results compare favorably with our theoretical analysis. We also show that whereas linear analysis of the LBE evolution operator is equivalent to Chapman-Enskog analysis in the long wave-length limit (wave vector k = 0), it can also provide results for large values of k. Such results are important for the stability and other hydrodynamic properties of the LBE method and cannot be obtained through Chapman-Enskog analysis.

Neutrino-two-Higgs-doublet model with the inverse seesaw mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yi-Lei; Zhu, Shou-hua

2017-09-01

In this paper, we combine the ν -two-Higgs-doublet-model with the inverse seesaw mechanisms. In this model, the Yukawa couplings involving the sterile neutrinos and the exotic Higgs bosons can be of order 1 in the case of a large tan β . We calculated the corrections to the Z -resonance parameters Rli,Al i, and Nν, together with the l1→l2γ branching ratios and the muon anomalous g -2 . Compared with the current bounds and plans for the future colliders, we find that the corrections to the electroweak parameters can be constrained or discovered in much of the parameter space.

Transfer matrix method for dynamics modeling and independent modal space vibration control design of linear hybrid multibody system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Bao; Rui, Xiaoting; Lu, Kun; Tao, Ling; Wang, Guoping; Ni, Xiaojun

2018-05-01

In this paper, an efficient method of dynamics modeling and vibration control design of a linear hybrid multibody system (MS) is studied based on the transfer matrix method. The natural vibration characteristics of a linear hybrid MS are solved by using low-order transfer equations. Then, by constructing the brand-new body dynamics equation, augmented operator and augmented eigenvector, the orthogonality of augmented eigenvector of a linear hybrid MS is satisfied, and its state space model expressed in each independent model space is obtained easily. According to this dynamics model, a robust independent modal space-fuzzy controller is designed for vibration control of a general MS, and the genetic optimization of some critical control parameters of fuzzy tuners is also presented. Two illustrative examples are performed, which results show that this method is computationally efficient and with perfect control performance.

Proximity Operations for Space Situational Awareness Spacecraft Rendezvous and Maneuvering using Numerical Simulations and Fuzzy Logic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrico, T.; Langster, T.; Carrico, J.; Alfano, S.; Loucks, M.; Vallado, D.

The authors present several spacecraft rendezvous and close proximity maneuvering techniques modeled with a high-precision numerical integrator using full force models and closed loop control with a Fuzzy Logic intelligent controller to command the engines. The authors document and compare the maneuvers, fuel use, and other parameters. This paper presents an innovative application of an existing capability to design, simulate and analyze proximity maneuvers; already in use for operational satellites performing other maneuvers. The system has been extended to demonstrate the capability to develop closed loop control laws to maneuver spacecraft in close proximity to another, including stand-off, docking, lunar landing and other operations applicable to space situational awareness, space based surveillance, and operational satellite modeling. The fully integrated end-to-end trajectory ephemerides are available from the authors in electronic ASCII text by request. The benefits of this system include: A realistic physics-based simulation for the development and validation of control laws A collaborative engineering environment for the design, development and tuning of spacecraft law parameters, sizing actuators (i.e., rocket engines), and sensor suite selection. An accurate simulation and visualization to communicate the complexity, criticality, and risk of spacecraft operations. A precise mathematical environment for research and development of future spacecraft maneuvering engineering tasks, operational planning and forensic analysis. A closed loop, knowledge-based control example for proximity operations. This proximity operations modeling and simulation environment will provide a valuable adjunct to programs in military space control, space situational awareness and civil space exploration engineering and decision making processes.

The determination of operational and support requirements and costs during the conceptual design of space systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ebeling, Charles

1991-01-01

The primary objective is to develop a methodology for predicting operational and support parameters and costs of proposed space systems. The first phase consists of: (1) the identification of data sources; (2) the development of a methodology for determining system reliability and maintainability parameters; (3) the implementation of the methodology through the use of prototypes; and (4) support in the development of an integrated computer model. The phase 1 results are documented and a direction is identified to proceed to accomplish the overall objective.

State space model approach for forecasting the use of electrical energy (a case study on: PT. PLN (Persero) district of Kroya)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurniati, Devi; Hoyyi, Abdul; Widiharih, Tatik

2018-05-01

Time series data is a series of data taken or measured based on observations at the same time interval. Time series data analysis is used to perform data analysis considering the effect of time. The purpose of time series analysis is to know the characteristics and patterns of a data and predict a data value in some future period based on data in the past. One of the forecasting methods used for time series data is the state space model. This study discusses the modeling and forecasting of electric energy consumption using the state space model for univariate data. The modeling stage is began with optimal Autoregressive (AR) order selection, determination of state vector through canonical correlation analysis, estimation of parameter, and forecasting. The result of this research shows that modeling of electric energy consumption using state space model of order 4 with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value 3.655%, so the model is very good forecasting category.

Studies of a general flat space/boson star transition model in a box through a language similar to holographic superconductors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Yan

2017-07-01

We study a general flat space/boson star transition model in quasi-local ensemble through approaches familiar from holographic superconductor theories. We manage to find a parameter ψ 2, which is proved to be useful in disclosing properties of phase transitions. In this work, we explore effects of the scalar mass, scalar charge and Stückelberg mechanism on the critical phase transition points and the order of transitions mainly from behaviors of the parameter ψ 2. We mention that properties of transitions in quasi-local gravity are strikingly similar to those in holographic superconductor models. We also obtain an analytical relation ψ 2 ∝ ( μ - μ c )1/2, which also holds for the condensed scalar operator in the holographic insulator/superconductor system in accordance with mean field theories.

Probabilistic failure assessment with application to solid rocket motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jan, Darrell L.; Davidson, Barry D.; Moore, Nicholas R.

1990-01-01

A quantitative methodology is being developed for assessment of risk of failure of solid rocket motors. This probabilistic methodology employs best available engineering models and available information in a stochastic framework. The framework accounts for incomplete knowledge of governing parameters, intrinsic variability, and failure model specification error. Earlier case studies have been conducted on several failure modes of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Work in progress on application of this probabilistic approach to large solid rocket boosters such as the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor for the Space Shuttle is described. Failure due to debonding has been selected as the first case study for large solid rocket motors (SRMs) since it accounts for a significant number of historical SRM failures. Impact of incomplete knowledge of governing parameters and failure model specification errors is expected to be important.

Novel scheme for rapid parallel parameter estimation of gravitational waves from compact binary coalescences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankow, C.; Brady, P.; Ochsner, E.; O'Shaughnessy, R.

2015-07-01

We introduce a highly parallelizable architecture for estimating parameters of compact binary coalescence using gravitational-wave data and waveform models. Using a spherical harmonic mode decomposition, the waveform is expressed as a sum over modes that depend on the intrinsic parameters (e.g., masses) with coefficients that depend on the observer dependent extrinsic parameters (e.g., distance, sky position). The data is then prefiltered against those modes, at fixed intrinsic parameters, enabling efficiently evaluation of the likelihood for generic source positions and orientations, independent of waveform length or generation time. We efficiently parallelize our intrinsic space calculation by integrating over all extrinsic parameters using a Monte Carlo integration strategy. Since the waveform generation and prefiltering happens only once, the cost of integration dominates the procedure. Also, we operate hierarchically, using information from existing gravitational-wave searches to identify the regions of parameter space to emphasize in our sampling. As proof of concept and verification of the result, we have implemented this algorithm using standard time-domain waveforms, processing each event in less than one hour on recent computing hardware. For most events we evaluate the marginalized likelihood (evidence) with statistical errors of ≲5 %, and even smaller in many cases. With a bounded runtime independent of the waveform model starting frequency, a nearly unchanged strategy could estimate neutron star (NS)-NS parameters in the 2018 advanced LIGO era. Our algorithm is usable with any noise curve and existing time-domain model at any mass, including some waveforms which are computationally costly to evolve.

Some issues in uncertainty quantification and parameter tuning: a case study of convective parameterization scheme in the WRF regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, B.; Qian, Y.; Lin, G.; Leung, R.; Zhang, Y.

2011-12-01

The current tuning process of parameters in global climate models is often performed subjectively or treated as an optimization procedure to minimize model biases based on observations. While the latter approach may provide more plausible values for a set of tunable parameters to approximate the observed climate, the system could be forced to an unrealistic physical state or improper balance of budgets through compensating errors over different regions of the globe. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to provide a more flexible framework to investigate a number of issues related uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter tuning. The WRF model was constrained by reanalysis of data over the Southern Great Plains (SGP), where abundant observational data from various sources was available for calibration of the input parameters and validation of the model results. Focusing on five key input parameters in the new Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme used in WRF as an example, the purpose of this study was to explore the utility of high-resolution observations for improving simulations of regional patterns and evaluate the transferability of UQ and parameter tuning across physical processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes, which have important implications to UQ and parameter tuning in global and regional models. A stochastic important-sampling algorithm, Multiple Very Fast Simulated Annealing (MVFSA) was employed to efficiently sample the input parameters in the KF scheme based on a skill score so that the algorithm progressively moved toward regions of the parameter space that minimize model errors. The results based on the WRF simulations with 25-km grid spacing over the SGP showed that the precipitation bias in the model could be significantly reduced when five optimal parameters identified by the MVFSA algorithm were used. The model performance was found to be sensitive to downdraft- and entrainment-related parameters and consumption time of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Simulated convective precipitation decreased as the ratio of downdraft to updraft flux increased. Larger CAPE consumption time resulted in less convective but more stratiform precipitation. The simulation using optimal parameters obtained by constraining only precipitation generated positive impact on the other output variables, such as temperature and wind. By using the optimal parameters obtained at 25-km simulation, both the magnitude and spatial pattern of simulated precipitation were improved at 12-km spatial resolution. The optimal parameters identified from the SGP region also improved the simulation of precipitation when the model domain was moved to another region with a different climate regime (i.e., the North America monsoon region). These results suggest that benefits of optimal parameters determined through vigorous mathematical procedures such as the MVFSA process are transferable across processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes to some extent. This motivates future studies to further assess the strategies for UQ and parameter optimization at both global and regional scales.

Uncertainty Quantification and Parameter Tuning: A Case Study of Convective Parameterization Scheme in the WRF Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Yang, B.; Lin, G.; Leung, R.; Zhang, Y.

2012-04-01

The current tuning process of parameters in global climate models is often performed subjectively or treated as an optimization procedure to minimize model biases based on observations. The latter approach may provide more plausible values for a set of tunable parameters to approximate the observed climate, the system could be forced to an unrealistic physical state or improper balance of budgets through compensating errors over different regions of the globe. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to provide a more flexible framework to investigate a number of issues related uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter tuning. The WRF model was constrained by reanalysis of data over the Southern Great Plains (SGP), where abundant observational data from various sources was available for calibration of the input parameters and validation of the model results. Focusing on five key input parameters in the new Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme used in WRF as an example, the purpose of this study was to explore the utility of high-resolution observations for improving simulations of regional patterns and evaluate the transferability of UQ and parameter tuning across physical processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes, which have important implications to UQ and parameter tuning in global and regional models. A stochastic important-sampling algorithm, Multiple Very Fast Simulated Annealing (MVFSA) was employed to efficiently sample the input parameters in the KF scheme based on a skill score so that the algorithm progressively moved toward regions of the parameter space that minimize model errors. The results based on the WRF simulations with 25-km grid spacing over the SGP showed that the precipitation bias in the model could be significantly reduced when five optimal parameters identified by the MVFSA algorithm were used. The model performance was found to be sensitive to downdraft- and entrainment-related parameters and consumption time of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Simulated convective precipitation decreased as the ratio of downdraft to updraft flux increased. Larger CAPE consumption time resulted in less convective but more stratiform precipitation. The simulation using optimal parameters obtained by constraining only precipitation generated positive impact on the other output variables, such as temperature and wind. By using the optimal parameters obtained at 25-km simulation, both the magnitude and spatial pattern of simulated precipitation were improved at 12-km spatial resolution. The optimal parameters identified from the SGP region also improved the simulation of precipitation when the model domain was moved to another region with a different climate regime (i.e., the North America monsoon region). These results suggest that benefits of optimal parameters determined through vigorous mathematical procedures such as the MVFSA process are transferable across processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes to some extent. This motivates future studies to further assess the strategies for UQ and parameter optimization at both global and regional scales.

Some issues in uncertainty quantification and parameter tuning: a case study of convective parameterization scheme in the WRF regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, B.; Qian, Y.; Lin, G.; Leung, R.; Zhang, Y.

2012-03-01

The current tuning process of parameters in global climate models is often performed subjectively or treated as an optimization procedure to minimize model biases based on observations. While the latter approach may provide more plausible values for a set of tunable parameters to approximate the observed climate, the system could be forced to an unrealistic physical state or improper balance of budgets through compensating errors over different regions of the globe. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to provide a more flexible framework to investigate a number of issues related uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter tuning. The WRF model was constrained by reanalysis of data over the Southern Great Plains (SGP), where abundant observational data from various sources was available for calibration of the input parameters and validation of the model results. Focusing on five key input parameters in the new Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme used in WRF as an example, the purpose of this study was to explore the utility of high-resolution observations for improving simulations of regional patterns and evaluate the transferability of UQ and parameter tuning across physical processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes, which have important implications to UQ and parameter tuning in global and regional models. A stochastic importance sampling algorithm, Multiple Very Fast Simulated Annealing (MVFSA) was employed to efficiently sample the input parameters in the KF scheme based on a skill score so that the algorithm progressively moved toward regions of the parameter space that minimize model errors. The results based on the WRF simulations with 25-km grid spacing over the SGP showed that the precipitation bias in the model could be significantly reduced when five optimal parameters identified by the MVFSA algorithm were used. The model performance was found to be sensitive to downdraft- and entrainment-related parameters and consumption time of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Simulated convective precipitation decreased as the ratio of downdraft to updraft flux increased. Larger CAPE consumption time resulted in less convective but more stratiform precipitation. The simulation using optimal parameters obtained by constraining only precipitation generated positive impact on the other output variables, such as temperature and wind. By using the optimal parameters obtained at 25-km simulation, both the magnitude and spatial pattern of simulated precipitation were improved at 12-km spatial resolution. The optimal parameters identified from the SGP region also improved the simulation of precipitation when the model domain was moved to another region with a different climate regime (i.e. the North America monsoon region). These results suggest that benefits of optimal parameters determined through vigorous mathematical procedures such as the MVFSA process are transferable across processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes to some extent. This motivates future studies to further assess the strategies for UQ and parameter optimization at both global and regional scales.

Quantum space and quantum completeness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurić, Tajron

2018-05-01

Motivated by the question whether quantum gravity can "smear out" the classical singularity we analyze a certain quantum space and its quantum-mechanical completeness. Classical singularity is understood as a geodesic incompleteness, while quantum completeness requires a unique unitary time evolution for test fields propagating on an underlying background. Here the crucial point is that quantum completeness renders the Hamiltonian (or spatial part of the wave operator) to be essentially self-adjoint in order to generate a unique time evolution. We examine a model of quantum space which consists of a noncommutative BTZ black hole probed by a test scalar field. We show that the quantum gravity (noncommutative) effect is to enlarge the domain of BTZ parameters for which the relevant wave operator is essentially self-adjoint. This means that the corresponding quantum space is quantum complete for a larger range of BTZ parameters rendering the conclusion that in the quantum space one observes the effect of "smearing out" the singularity.

Improved Parameter-Estimation With MRI-Constrained PET Kinetic Modeling: A Simulation Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erlandsson, Kjell; Liljeroth, Maria; Atkinson, David; Arridge, Simon; Ourselin, Sebastien; Hutton, Brian F.

2016-10-01

Kinetic analysis can be applied both to dynamic PET and dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) MRI data. We have investigated the potential of MRI-constrained PET kinetic modeling using simulated [ 18F]2-FDG data for skeletal muscle. The volume of distribution, Ve, for the extra-vascular extra-cellular space (EES) is the link between the two models: It can be estimated by DCE-MRI, and then used to reduce the number of parameters to estimate in the PET model. We used a 3 tissue-compartment model with 5 rate constants (3TC5k), in order to distinguish between EES and the intra-cellular space (ICS). Time-activity curves were generated by simulation using the 3TC5k model for 3 different Ve values under basal and insulin stimulated conditions. Noise was added and the data were fitted with the 2TC3k model and with the 3TC5k model with and without Ve constraint. One hundred noise-realisations were generated at 4 different noise-levels. The results showed reductions in bias and variance with Ve constraint in the 3TC5k model. We calculated the parameter k3", representing the combined effect of glucose transport across the cellular membrane and phosphorylation, as an extra outcome measure. For k3", the average coefficient of variation was reduced from 52% to 9.7%, while for k3 in the standard 2TC3k model it was 3.4%. The accuracy of the parameters estimated with our new modeling approach depends on the accuracy of the assumed Ve value. In conclusion, we have shown that, by utilising information that could be obtained from DCE-MRI in the kinetic analysis of [ 18F]2-FDG-PET data, it is in principle possible to obtain better parameter estimates with a more complex model, which may provide additional information as compared to the standard model.

Unified model of brain tissue microstructure dynamically binds diffusion and osmosis with extracellular space geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousefnezhad, Mohsen; Fotouhi, Morteza; Vejdani, Kaveh; Kamali-Zare, Padideh

2016-09-01

We present a universal model of brain tissue microstructure that dynamically links osmosis and diffusion with geometrical parameters of brain extracellular space (ECS). Our model robustly describes and predicts the nonlinear time dependency of tortuosity (λ =√{D /D* } ) changes with very high precision in various media with uniform and nonuniform osmolarity distribution, as demonstrated by previously published experimental data (D = free diffusion coefficient, D* = effective diffusion coefficient). To construct this model, we first developed a multiscale technique for computationally effective modeling of osmolarity in the brain tissue. Osmolarity differences across cell membranes lead to changes in the ECS dynamics. The evolution of the underlying dynamics is then captured by a level set method. Subsequently, using a homogenization technique, we derived a coarse-grained model with parameters that are explicitly related to the geometry of cells and their associated ECS. Our modeling results in very accurate analytical approximation of tortuosity based on time, space, osmolarity differences across cell membranes, and water permeability of cell membranes. Our model provides a unique platform for studying ECS dynamics not only in physiologic conditions such as sleep-wake cycles and aging but also in pathologic conditions such as stroke, seizure, and neoplasia, as well as in predictive pharmacokinetic modeling such as predicting medication biodistribution and efficacy and novel biomolecule development and testing.

Moving to continuous facial expression space using the MPEG-4 facial definition parameter (FDP) set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpouzis, Kostas; Tsapatsoulis, Nicolas; Kollias, Stefanos D.

2000-06-01

Research in facial expression has concluded that at least six emotions, conveyed by human faces, are universally associated with distinct expressions. Sadness, anger, joy, fear, disgust and surprise are categories of expressions that are recognizable across cultures. In this work we form a relation between the description of the universal expressions and the MPEG-4 Facial Definition Parameter Set (FDP). We also investigate the relation between the movement of basic FDPs and the parameters that describe emotion-related words according to some classical psychological studies. In particular Whissel suggested that emotions are points in a space, which seem to occupy two dimensions: activation and evaluation. We show that some of the MPEG-4 Facial Animation Parameters (FAPs), approximated by the motion of the corresponding FDPs, can be combined by means of a fuzzy rule system to estimate the activation parameter. In this way variations of the six archetypal emotions can be achieved. Moreover, Plutchik concluded that emotion terms are unevenly distributed through the space defined by dimensions like Whissel's; instead they tend to form an approximately circular pattern, called 'emotion wheel,' modeled using an angular measure. The 'emotion wheel' can be defined as a reference for creating intermediate expressions from the universal ones, by interpolating the movement of dominant FDP points between neighboring basic expressions. By exploiting the relation between the movement of the basic FDP point and the activation and angular parameters we can model more emotions than the primary ones and achieve efficient recognition in video sequences.

Development of Gridded Fields of Urban Canopy Parameters for Advanced Urban Meteorological and Air Quality Models

EPA Science Inventory

Urban dispersion and air quality simulation models applied at various horizontal scales require different levels of fidelity for specifying the characteristics of the underlying surfaces. As the modeling scales approach the neighborhood level (~1 km horizontal grid spacing), the...

Research in Satellite-Fiber Network Interoperability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edelson, Burt

1997-01-01

This four part report evaluated the performance of high data rate transmission links using the ACTS satellite, and to provide a preparatory test framework for two of the space science applications that have been approved for tests and demonstrations as part of the overall ACTS program. The test plan will provide guidance and information necessary to find the optimal values of the transmission parameters and then apply these parameters to specific applications. The first part will focus on the satellite-to-earth link. The second part is a set of tests to study the performance of ATM on the ACTS channel. The third and fourth parts of the test plan will cover the space science applications, Global Climate Modeling and Keck Telescope Acquisition Modeling and Control.

Analysis of screeching in a cold flow jet experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, M. E.; Slone, R. M., Jr.; Robertson, J. E.; Keefe, L.

1975-01-01

The screech phenomenon observed in a one-sixtieth scale model space shuttle test of the solid rocket booster exhaust flow noise has been investigated. A critical review is given of the cold flow test data representative of Space Shuttle launch configurations to define those parameters which contribute to screech generation. An acoustic feedback mechanism is found to be responsible for the generation of screech. A simple equation which permits prediction of screech frequency in terms of basic testing parameters such as the jet exhaust Mach number and the separating distance from nozzle exit to the surface of model launch pad is presented and is found in good agreement with the test data. Finally, techniques are recommended to eliminate or reduce the screech.

High Performance, Robust Control of Flexible Space Structures: MSFC Center Director's Discretionary Fund

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whorton, M. S.

1998-01-01

Many spacecraft systems have ambitious objectives that place stringent requirements on control systems. Achievable performance is often limited because of difficulty of obtaining accurate models for flexible space structures. To achieve sufficiently high performance to accomplish mission objectives may require the ability to refine the control design model based on closed-loop test data and tune the controller based on the refined model. A control system design procedure is developed based on mixed H2/H(infinity) optimization to synthesize a set of controllers explicitly trading between nominal performance and robust stability. A homotopy algorithm is presented which generates a trajectory of gains that may be implemented to determine maximum achievable performance for a given model error bound. Examples show that a better balance between robustness and performance is obtained using the mixed H2/H(infinity) design method than either H2 or mu-synthesis control design. A second contribution is a new procedure for closed-loop system identification which refines parameters of a control design model in a canonical realization. Examples demonstrate convergence of the parameter estimation and improved performance realized by using the refined model for controller redesign. These developments result in an effective mechanism for achieving high-performance control of flexible space structures.

Space-flight simulations of calcium metabolism using a mathematical model of calcium regulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brand, S. N.

1985-01-01

The results of a series of simulation studies of calcium matabolic changes which have been recorded during human exposure to bed rest and space flight are presented. Space flight and bed rest data demonstrate losses of total body calcium during exposure to hypogravic environments. These losses are evidenced by higher than normal rates of urine calcium excretion and by negative calcium balances. In addition, intestinal absorption rates and bone mineral content are assumed to decrease. The bed rest and space flight simulations were executed on a mathematical model of the calcium metabolic system. The purpose of the simulations is to theoretically test hypotheses and predict system responses which are occurring during given experimental stresses. In this case, hypogravity occurs through the comparison of simulation and experimental data and through the analysis of model structure and system responses. The model reliably simulates the responses of selected bed rest and space flight parameters. When experimental data are available, the simulated skeletal responses and regulatory factors involved in the responses agree with space flight data collected on rodents. In addition, areas within the model that need improvement are identified.

Comparison of Cone Model Parameters for Halo Coronal Mass Ejections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na, Hyeonock; Moon, Y.-J.; Jang, Soojeong; Lee, Kyoung-Sun; Kim, Hae-Yeon

2013-11-01

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are a major cause of geomagnetic storms, hence their three-dimensional structures are important for space weather. We compare three cone models: an elliptical-cone model, an ice-cream-cone model, and an asymmetric-cone model. These models allow us to determine three-dimensional parameters of HCMEs such as radial speed, angular width, and the angle [ γ] between sky plane and cone axis. We compare these parameters obtained from three models using 62 HCMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO from 2001 to 2002. Then we obtain the root-mean-square (RMS) error between the highest measured projection speeds and their calculated projection speeds from the cone models. As a result, we find that the radial speeds obtained from the models are well correlated with one another ( R > 0.8). The correlation coefficients between angular widths range from 0.1 to 0.48 and those between γ-values range from -0.08 to 0.47, which is much smaller than expected. The reason may be the different assumptions and methods. The RMS errors between the highest measured projection speeds and the highest estimated projection speeds of the elliptical-cone model, the ice-cream-cone model, and the asymmetric-cone model are 376 km s-1, 169 km s-1, and 152 km s-1. We obtain the correlation coefficients between the location from the models and the flare location ( R > 0.45). Finally, we discuss strengths and weaknesses of these models in terms of space-weather application.

Implicit assimilation for marine ecological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weir, B.; Miller, R.; Spitz, Y. H.

2012-12-01

We use a new data assimilation method to estimate the parameters of a marine ecological model. At a given point in the ocean, the estimated values of the parameters determine the behaviors of the modeled planktonic groups, and thus indicate which species are dominant. To begin, we assimilate in situ observations, e.g., the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study, the Hawaii Ocean Time-series, and Ocean Weather Station Papa. From there, we estimate the parameters at surrounding points in space based on satellite observations of ocean color. Given the variation of the estimated parameters, we divide the ocean into regions meant to represent distinct ecosystems. An important feature of the data assimilation approach is that it refines the confidence limits of the optimal Gaussian approximation to the distribution of the parameters. This enables us to determine the ecological divisions with greater accuracy.

Modeling AWSoM CMEs with EEGGL: A New Approach for Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, M.; Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B.; Sokolov, I.; Toth, G.; Vourlidas, A.; de Koning, C. A.; Gombosi, T. I.

2015-12-01

The major source of destructive space weather is coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However, our understanding of CMEs and their propagation in the heliosphere is limited by the insufficient observations. Therefore, the development of first-principals numerical models plays a vital role in both theoretical investigation and providing space weather forecasts. Here, we present results of the simulation of CME propagation from the Sun to 1AU by combining the analytical Gibson & Low (GL) flux rope model with the state-of-art solar wind model AWSoM. We also provide an approach for transferring this research model to a space weather forecasting tool by demonstrating how the free parameters of the GL flux rope can be prescribed based on remote observations via the new Eruptive Event Generator by Gibson-Low (EEGGL) toolkit. This capability allows us to predict the long-term evolution of the CME in interplanetary space. We perform proof-of-concept case studies to show the capability of the model to capture physical processes that determine CME evolution while also reproducing many observed features both in the corona and at 1 AU. We discuss the potential and limitations of this model as a future space weather forecasting tool.

Left-right supersymmetry after the Higgs boson discovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Mariana; Ghosh, Dilip Kumar; Huitu, Katri; Rai, Santosh Kumar; Saha, Ipsita; Waltari, Harri

2014-12-01

We perform a thorough analysis of the parameter space of the minimal left-right supersymmetric model in agreement with the LHC data. The model contains left- and right-handed fermionic doublets, two Higgs bidoublets, two Higgs triplet representations, and one singlet, insuring a charge-conserving vacuum. We impose the condition that the model complies with the experimental constraints on supersymmetric particles masses and on the doubly charged Higgs bosons and require that the parameter space of the model satisfies the LHC data on neutral Higgs signal strengths at 2 σ . We choose benchmark scenarios by fixing some basic parameters and scanning over the rest. The lightest supersymmetric particle in our scenarios is always the lightest neutralino. We find that the signals for H →γ γ and H →V V⋆ are correlated, while H →b b ¯ is anticorrelated with all of the other decay modes, and also that the contribution from singly charged scalars dominates that of the doubly charged scalars in H →γ γ and H →Z γ loops, contrary to type II seesaw models. We also illustrate the range for mass spectrum of the LRSUSY model in light of planned measurements of the branching ratio of H →γ γ to 10% level.

Manned space station environmental control and life support system computer-aided technology assessment program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, J. B., Jr.; Pickett, S. J.; Sage, K. H.

1984-01-01

A computer program for assessing manned space station environmental control and life support systems technology is described. The methodology, mission model parameters, evaluation criteria, and data base for 17 candidate technologies for providing metabolic oxygen and water to the crew are discussed. Examples are presented which demonstrate the capability of the program to evaluate candidate technology options for evolving space station requirements.

Hybrid Inflation: Multi-field Dynamics and Cosmological Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clesse, Sébastien

2011-09-01

The dynamics of hybrid models is usually approximated by the evolution of a scalar field slowly rolling along a nearly flat valley. Inflation ends with a waterfall phase, due to a tachyonic instability. This final phase is usually assumed to be nearly instantaneous. In this thesis, we go beyond these approximations and analyze the exact 2-field dynamics of hybrid models. Several effects are put in evidence: 1) the possible slow-roll violations along the valley induce the non existence of inflation at small field values. Provided super-planckian fields, the scalar spectrum of the original model is red, in agreement with observations. 2) The initial field values are not fine-tuned along the valley but also occupy a considerable part of the field space exterior to it. They form a structure with fractal boundaries. Using bayesian methods, their distribution in the whole parameter space is studied. Natural bounds on the potential parameters are derived. 3) For the original model, inflation is found to continue for more than 60 e-folds along waterfall trajectories in some part of the parameter space. The scalar power spectrum of adiabatic perturbations is modified and is generically red, possibly in agreement with CMB observations. Topological defects are conveniently stretched outside the observable Universe. 4) The analysis of the initial conditions is extended to the case of a closed Universe, in which the initial singularity is replaced by a classical bounce. In the third part of the thesis, we study how the present CMB constraints on the cosmological parameters could be ameliorated with the observation of the 21cm cosmic background, by future giant radio-telescopes. Forecasts are determined for a characteristic Fast Fourier Transform Telescope, by using both Fisher matrix and MCMC methods.

Direct estimation of tracer-kinetic parameter maps from highly undersampled brain dynamic contrast enhanced MRI.

PubMed

Guo, Yi; Lingala, Sajan Goud; Zhu, Yinghua; Lebel, R Marc; Nayak, Krishna S

2017-10-01

The purpose of this work was to develop and evaluate a T 1 -weighted dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) MRI methodology where tracer-kinetic (TK) parameter maps are directly estimated from undersampled (k,t)-space data. The proposed reconstruction involves solving a nonlinear least squares optimization problem that includes explicit use of a full forward model to convert parameter maps to (k,t)-space, utilizing the Patlak TK model. The proposed scheme is compared against an indirect method that creates intermediate images by parallel imaging and compressed sensing before to TK modeling. Thirteen fully sampled brain tumor DCE-MRI scans with 5-second temporal resolution are retrospectively undersampled at rates R = 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 for each dynamic frame. TK maps are quantitatively compared based on root mean-squared-error (rMSE) and Bland-Altman analysis. The approach is also applied to four prospectively R = 30 undersampled whole-brain DCE-MRI data sets. In the retrospective study, the proposed method performed statistically better than indirect method at R ≥ 80 for all 13 cases. This approach provided restoration of TK parameter values with less errors in tumor regions of interest, an improvement compared to a state-of-the-art indirect method. Applied prospectively, the proposed method provided whole-brain, high-resolution TK maps with good image quality. Model-based direct estimation of TK maps from k,t-space DCE-MRI data is feasible and is compatible up to 100-fold undersampling. Magn Reson Med 78:1566-1578, 2017. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for computationally expensive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, M.; Ray, J.; Ren, H.; Hou, Z.; Bao, J.

2017-12-01

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to infer model parameters from observational data. The parameters are inferred as probability densities, thus capturing estimation error due to sparsity of the data, and the shortcomings of the model. Multiple communicating chains executing the MCMC method have the potential to explore the parameter space better, and conceivably accelerate the convergence to the final distribution. We present results from tests conducted with the multi-chain method to show how the acceleration occurs i.e., for loose convergence tolerances, the multiple chains do not make much of a difference. The ensemble of chains also seems to have the ability to accelerate the convergence of a few chains that might start from suboptimal starting points. Finally, we show the performance of the chains in the estimation of O(10) parameters using computationally expensive forward models such as the Community Land Model, where the sampling burden is distributed over multiple chains.

Phase space deformations in phantom cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López, J. L.; Sabido, M.; Yee-Romero, C.

2018-03-01

We discuss the physical consequences of general phase space deformations on the minisuperspace of phantom cosmology. Based on the principle of physically equivalent descriptions in the deformed theory, we investigate for what values of the deformation parameters the arising descriptions are physically equivalent. We also construct and solve the quantum model and derive the semiclassical dynamics.

Numerical analysis of seismic events distributions on the planetary scale and celestial bodies astrometrical parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulatova, Dr.

2012-04-01

Modern research in the domains of Earth sciences is developing from the descriptions of each individual natural phenomena to the systematic complex research in interdisciplinary areas. For studies of its kind in the form numerical analysis of three-dimensional (3D) systems, the author proposes space-time Technology (STT), based on a Ptolemaic geocentric system, consist of two modules, each with its own coordinate system: (1) - 3D model of a Earth, the coordinates of which provides databases of the Earth's events (here seismic), and (2) - a compact model of the relative motion of celestial bodies in space - time on Earth known as the "Method of a moving source" (MDS), which was developed in MDS (Bulatova, 1998-2000) for the 3D space. Module (2) was developed as a continuation of the geocentric Ptolemaic system of the world, built on the astronomical parameters heavenly bodies. Based on the aggregation data of Space and Earth Sciences, systematization, and cooperative analysis, this is an attempt to establish a cause-effect relationship between the position of celestial bodies (Moon, Sun) and Earth's seismic events.

Light chiral dark sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harigaya, Keisuke; Nomura, Yasunori

2016-08-01

An interesting possibility for dark matter is a scalar particle of mass of order 10 MeV-1 GeV, interacting with a U (1 ) gauge boson (dark photon) which mixes with the photon. We present a simple and natural model realizing this possibility. The dark matter arises as a composite pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson (dark pion) in a non-Abelian gauge sector, which also gives a mass to the dark photon. For a fixed non-Abelian gauge group, S U (N ) , and a U (1 ) charge of the constituent dark quarks, the model has only three free parameters: the dynamical scale of the non-Abelian gauge theory, the gauge coupling of the dark photon, and the mixing parameter between the dark and standard model photons. In particular, the gauge symmetry of the model does not allow any mass term for the dark quarks, and the stability of the dark pion is understood as a result of an accidental global symmetry. The model has a significant parameter space in which thermal relic dark pions comprise all of the dark matter, consistently with all experimental and cosmological constraints. In a corner of the parameter space, the discrepancy of the muon g -2 between experiments and the standard model prediction can also be ameliorated due to a loop contribution of the dark photon. Smoking-gun signatures of the model include a monophoton signal from the e+e- collision into a photon and a "dark rho meson." Observation of two processes in e+e- collision—the mode into the dark photon and that into the dark rho meson—would provide strong evidence for the model.

PyDREAM: high-dimensional parameter inference for biological models in python.

PubMed

Shockley, Erin M; Vrugt, Jasper A; Lopez, Carlos F; Valencia, Alfonso

2018-02-15

Biological models contain many parameters whose values are difficult to measure directly via experimentation and therefore require calibration against experimental data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are suitable to estimate multivariate posterior model parameter distributions, but these methods may exhibit slow or premature convergence in high-dimensional search spaces. Here, we present PyDREAM, a Python implementation of the (Multiple-Try) Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis [DREAM(ZS)] algorithm developed by Vrugt and ter Braak (2008) and Laloy and Vrugt (2012). PyDREAM achieves excellent performance for complex, parameter-rich models and takes full advantage of distributed computing resources, facilitating parameter inference and uncertainty estimation of CPU-intensive biological models. PyDREAM is freely available under the GNU GPLv3 license from the Lopez lab GitHub repository at http://github.com/LoLab-VU/PyDREAM. c.lopez@vanderbilt.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Non-stationary noise estimation using dictionary learning and Gaussian mixture models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, James M.; Rockmore, Daniel N.; Wang, Yang

2014-02-01

Stationarity of the noise distribution is a common assumption in image processing. This assumption greatly simplifies denoising estimators and other model parameters and consequently assuming stationarity is often a matter of convenience rather than an accurate model of noise characteristics. The problematic nature of this assumption is exacerbated in real-world contexts, where noise is often highly non-stationary and can possess time- and space-varying characteristics. Regardless of model complexity, estimating the parameters of noise dis- tributions in digital images is a difficult task, and estimates are often based on heuristic assumptions. Recently, sparse Bayesian dictionary learning methods were shown to produce accurate estimates of the level of additive white Gaussian noise in images with minimal assumptions. We show that a similar model is capable of accu- rately modeling certain kinds of non-stationary noise processes, allowing for space-varying noise in images to be estimated, detected, and removed. We apply this modeling concept to several types of non-stationary noise and demonstrate the model's effectiveness on real-world problems, including denoising and segmentation of images according to noise characteristics, which has applications in image forensics.

The Modeling and Control of Acoustic/Structure Interaction Problems via Piezoceramic Actuators: 2-D Numerical Examples

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-04-01

the voltage applied to the it" patch, K ’ is a parameter which depends on the geometry and piezoceramic...in the state space II L 2(fQ) x L2 (F0 ). Here L2(Q) is the quotient space of L2 over the constant functions. The use of the quotient space results...form of the problem, we also define the Hilbert space V = fti(Q) x H(F 0 ) where h!(Q) is the quotient space of Il’ over the constant functions

Decay of standard-model-like Higgs boson h →μ τ in a 3-3-1 model with inverse seesaw neutrino masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, T. Phong; Le, T. Thuy; Hong, T. T.; Hue, L. T.

2018-04-01

By adding new gauge singlets of neutral leptons, the improved versions of the 3-3-1 models with right-handed neutrinos have been recently introduced in order to explain recent experimental neutrino oscillation data through the inverse seesaw mechanism. We prove that these models predict promising signals of lepton-flavor-violating decays of the standard-model-like Higgs boson h10→μ τ ,e τ , which are suppressed in the original versions. One-loop contributions to these decay amplitudes are introduced in the unitary gauge. Based on a numerical investigation, we find that the branching ratios of the decays h10→μ τ ,e τ can reach values of 10-5 in the regions of parameter space satisfying the current experimental data of the decay μ →e γ . The value of 10-4 appears when the Yukawa couplings of leptons are close to the perturbative limit. Some interesting properties of these regions of parameter space are also discussed.

Fast and Accurate Circuit Design Automation through Hierarchical Model Switching.

PubMed

Huynh, Linh; Tagkopoulos, Ilias

2015-08-21

In computer-aided biological design, the trifecta of characterized part libraries, accurate models and optimal design parameters is crucial for producing reliable designs. As the number of parts and model complexity increase, however, it becomes exponentially more difficult for any optimization method to search the solution space, hence creating a trade-off that hampers efficient design. To address this issue, we present a hierarchical computer-aided design architecture that uses a two-step approach for biological design. First, a simple model of low computational complexity is used to predict circuit behavior and assess candidate circuit branches through branch-and-bound methods. Then, a complex, nonlinear circuit model is used for a fine-grained search of the reduced solution space, thus achieving more accurate results. Evaluation with a benchmark of 11 circuits and a library of 102 experimental designs with known characterization parameters demonstrates a speed-up of 3 orders of magnitude when compared to other design methods that provide optimality guarantees.

Generic precise augmented reality guiding system and its calibration method based on 3D virtual model.

PubMed

Liu, Miao; Yang, Shourui; Wang, Zhangying; Huang, Shujun; Liu, Yue; Niu, Zhenqi; Zhang, Xiaoxuan; Zhu, Jigui; Zhang, Zonghua

2016-05-30

Augmented reality system can be applied to provide precise guidance for various kinds of manual works. The adaptability and guiding accuracy of such systems are decided by the computational model and the corresponding calibration method. In this paper, a novel type of augmented reality guiding system and the corresponding designing scheme are proposed. Guided by external positioning equipment, the proposed system can achieve high relative indication accuracy in a large working space. Meanwhile, the proposed system is realized with a digital projector and the general back projection model is derived with geometry relationship between digitized 3D model and the projector in free space. The corresponding calibration method is also designed for the proposed system to obtain the parameters of projector. To validate the proposed back projection model, the coordinate data collected by a 3D positioning equipment is used to calculate and optimize the extrinsic parameters. The final projecting indication accuracy of the system is verified with subpixel pattern projecting technique.

Performance of two predictive uncertainty estimation approaches for conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model: Bayesian Joint Inference and Hydrologic Uncertainty Post-processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-López, Mario R.; Romero-Cuéllar, Jonathan; Camilo Múnera-Estrada, Juan; Coccia, Gabriele; Francés, Félix

2017-04-01

It is noticeably important to emphasize the role of uncertainty particularly when the model forecasts are used to support decision-making and water management. This research compares two approaches for the evaluation of the predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling. First approach is the Bayesian Joint Inference of hydrological and error models. Second approach is carried out through the Model Conditional Processor using the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. This comparison is focused on the predictive distribution reliability. The case study is applied to two basins included in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). These two basins, which have different hydrological complexity, are the French Broad River (North Carolina) and the Guadalupe River (Texas). The results indicate that generally, both approaches are able to provide similar predictive performances. However, the differences between them can arise in basins with complex hydrology (e.g. ephemeral basins). This is because obtained results with Bayesian Joint Inference are strongly dependent on the suitability of the hypothesized error model. Similarly, the results in the case of the Model Conditional Processor are mainly influenced by the selected model of tails or even by the selected full probability distribution model of the data in the real space, and by the definition of the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. In summary, the different hypotheses that the modeler choose on each of the two approaches are the main cause of the different results. This research also explores a proper combination of both methodologies which could be useful to achieve less biased hydrological parameter estimation. For this approach, firstly the predictive distribution is obtained through the Model Conditional Processor. Secondly, this predictive distribution is used to derive the corresponding additive error model which is employed for the hydrological parameter estimation with the Bayesian Joint Inference methodology.

Research on Equivalent Tests of Dynamics of On-orbit Soft Contact Technology Based on On-Orbit Experiment Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, F.; Dong, Z. H.; Ye, X.

2018-05-01

Currently, space robots have been become a very important means of space on-orbit maintenance and support. Many countries are taking deep research and experiment on this. Because space operation attitude is very complicated, it is difficult to model them in research lab. This paper builds up a complete equivalent experiment framework according to the requirement of proposed space soft-contact technology. Also, this paper carries out flexible multi-body dynamics parameters verification for on-orbit soft-contact mechanism, which combines on-orbit experiment data, the built soft-contact mechanism equivalent model and flexible multi-body dynamics equivalent model that is based on KANE equation. The experiment results approve the correctness of the built on-orbit soft-contact flexible multi-body dynamics.

HIGH-RESOLUTION DATASET OF URBAN CANOPY PARAMETERS FOR HOUSTON, TEXAS

EPA Science Inventory

Urban dispersion and air quality simulation models applied at various horizontal scales require different levels of fidelity for specifying the characteristics of the underlying surfaces. As the modeling scales approach the neighborhood level (~1 km horizontal grid spacing), the...

Launch Vehicle Propulsion Parameter Design Multiple Selection Criteria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shelton, Joey Dewayne

2004-01-01

The optimization tool described herein addresses and emphasizes the use of computer tools to model a system and focuses on a concept development approach for a liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen single-stage-to-orbit system, but more particularly the development of the optimized system using new techniques. This methodology uses new and innovative tools to run Monte Carlo simulations, genetic algorithm solvers, and statistical models in order to optimize a design concept. The concept launch vehicle and propulsion system were modeled and optimized to determine the best design for weight and cost by varying design and technology parameters. Uncertainty levels were applied using Monte Carlo Simulations and the model output was compared to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Space Shuttle Main Engine. Several key conclusions are summarized here for the model results. First, the Gross Liftoff Weight and Dry Weight were 67% higher for the design case for minimization of Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost when compared to the weights determined by the minimization of Gross Liftoff Weight case. In turn, the Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost was 53% higher for optimized Gross Liftoff Weight case when compared to the cost determined by case for minimization of Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost. Therefore, a 53% increase in Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost results in a 67% reduction in Gross Liftoff Weight. Secondly, the tool outputs define the sensitivity of propulsion parameters, technology and cost factors and how these parameters differ when cost and weight are optimized separately. A key finding was that for a Space Shuttle Main Engine thrust level the oxidizer/fuel ratio of 6.6 resulted in the lowest Gross Liftoff Weight rather than at 5.2 for the maximum specific impulse, demonstrating the relationships between specific impulse, engine weight, tank volume and tank weight. Lastly, the optimum chamber pressure for Gross Liftoff Weight minimization was 2713 pounds per square inch as compared to 3162 for the Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost optimization case. This chamber pressure range is close to 3000 pounds per square inch for the Space Shuttle Main Engine.

Using SpaceClaimTD Direct for Modeling Components with Complex Geometries for the Thermal Desktop-Based Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fabanich, William A., Jr.

2014-01-01

SpaceClaim/TD Direct has been used extensively in the development of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) thermal model. This paper outlines the workflow for that aspect of the task and includes proposed best practices and lessons learned. The ASRG thermal model was developed to predict component temperatures and power output and to provide insight into the prime contractor's thermal modeling efforts. The insulation blocks, heat collectors, and cold side adapter flanges (CSAFs) were modeled with this approach. The model was constructed using mostly TD finite difference (FD) surfaces/solids. However, some complex geometry could not be reproduced with TD primitives while maintaining the desired degree of geometric fidelity. Using SpaceClaim permitted the import of original CAD files and enabled the defeaturing/repair of those geometries. TD Direct (a SpaceClaim add-on from CRTech) adds features that allowed the "mark-up" of that geometry. These so-called "mark-ups" control how finite element (FE) meshes are to be generated through the "tagging" of features (e.g. edges, solids, surfaces). These tags represent parameters that include: submodels, material properties, material orienters, optical properties, and radiation analysis groups. TD aliases were used for most tags to allow analysis to be performed with a variety of parameter values. "Domain-tags" were also attached to individual and groups of surfaces and solids to allow them to be used later within TD to populate objects like, for example, heaters and contactors. These tools allow the user to make changes to the geometry in SpaceClaim and then easily synchronize the mesh in TD without having to redefine the objects each time as one would if using TDMesher. The use of SpaceClaim/TD Direct helps simplify the process for importing existing geometries and in the creation of high fidelity FE meshes to represent complex parts. It also saves time and effort in the subsequent analysis.

Using SpaceClaim/TD Direct for Modeling Components with Complex Geometries for the Thermal Desktop-Based Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fabanich, William

2014-01-01

SpaceClaim/TD Direct has been used extensively in the development of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) thermal model. This paper outlines the workflow for that aspect of the task and includes proposed best practices and lessons learned. The ASRG thermal model was developed to predict component temperatures and power output and to provide insight into the prime contractors thermal modeling efforts. The insulation blocks, heat collectors, and cold side adapter flanges (CSAFs) were modeled with this approach. The model was constructed using mostly TD finite difference (FD) surfaces solids. However, some complex geometry could not be reproduced with TD primitives while maintaining the desired degree of geometric fidelity. Using SpaceClaim permitted the import of original CAD files and enabled the defeaturing repair of those geometries. TD Direct (a SpaceClaim add-on from CRTech) adds features that allowed the mark-up of that geometry. These so-called mark-ups control how finite element (FE) meshes were generated and allowed the tagging of features (e.g. edges, solids, surfaces). These tags represent parameters that include: submodels, material properties, material orienters, optical properties, and radiation analysis groups. TD aliases were used for most tags to allow analysis to be performed with a variety of parameter values. Domain-tags were also attached to individual and groups of surfaces and solids to allow them to be used later within TD to populate objects like, for example, heaters and contactors. These tools allow the user to make changes to the geometry in SpaceClaim and then easily synchronize the mesh in TD without having to redefine these objects each time as one would if using TD Mesher.The use of SpaceClaim/TD Direct has helped simplify the process for importing existing geometries and in the creation of high fidelity FE meshes to represent complex parts. It has also saved time and effort in the subsequent analysis.

Model's sparse representation based on reduced mixed GMsFE basis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Lijian; Li, Qiuqi

2017-06-01

In this paper, we propose a model's sparse representation based on reduced mixed generalized multiscale finite element (GMsFE) basis methods for elliptic PDEs with random inputs. A typical application for the elliptic PDEs is the flow in heterogeneous random porous media. Mixed generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM) is one of the accurate and efficient approaches to solve the flow problem in a coarse grid and obtain the velocity with local mass conservation. When the inputs of the PDEs are parameterized by the random variables, the GMsFE basis functions usually depend on the random parameters. This leads to a large number degree of freedoms for the mixed GMsFEM and substantially impacts on the computation efficiency. In order to overcome the difficulty, we develop reduced mixed GMsFE basis methods such that the multiscale basis functions are independent of the random parameters and span a low-dimensional space. To this end, a greedy algorithm is used to find a set of optimal samples from a training set scattered in the parameter space. Reduced mixed GMsFE basis functions are constructed based on the optimal samples using two optimal sampling strategies: basis-oriented cross-validation and proper orthogonal decomposition. Although the dimension of the space spanned by the reduced mixed GMsFE basis functions is much smaller than the dimension of the original full order model, the online computation still depends on the number of coarse degree of freedoms. To significantly improve the online computation, we integrate the reduced mixed GMsFE basis methods with sparse tensor approximation and obtain a sparse representation for the model's outputs. The sparse representation is very efficient for evaluating the model's outputs for many instances of parameters. To illustrate the efficacy of the proposed methods, we present a few numerical examples for elliptic PDEs with multiscale and random inputs. In particular, a two-phase flow model in random porous media is simulated by the proposed sparse representation method.

Model's sparse representation based on reduced mixed GMsFE basis methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Lijian, E-mail: ljjiang@hnu.edu.cn; Li, Qiuqi, E-mail: qiuqili@hnu.edu.cn

2017-06-01

In this paper, we propose a model's sparse representation based on reduced mixed generalized multiscale finite element (GMsFE) basis methods for elliptic PDEs with random inputs. A typical application for the elliptic PDEs is the flow in heterogeneous random porous media. Mixed generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM) is one of the accurate and efficient approaches to solve the flow problem in a coarse grid and obtain the velocity with local mass conservation. When the inputs of the PDEs are parameterized by the random variables, the GMsFE basis functions usually depend on the random parameters. This leads to a largemore » number degree of freedoms for the mixed GMsFEM and substantially impacts on the computation efficiency. In order to overcome the difficulty, we develop reduced mixed GMsFE basis methods such that the multiscale basis functions are independent of the random parameters and span a low-dimensional space. To this end, a greedy algorithm is used to find a set of optimal samples from a training set scattered in the parameter space. Reduced mixed GMsFE basis functions are constructed based on the optimal samples using two optimal sampling strategies: basis-oriented cross-validation and proper orthogonal decomposition. Although the dimension of the space spanned by the reduced mixed GMsFE basis functions is much smaller than the dimension of the original full order model, the online computation still depends on the number of coarse degree of freedoms. To significantly improve the online computation, we integrate the reduced mixed GMsFE basis methods with sparse tensor approximation and obtain a sparse representation for the model's outputs. The sparse representation is very efficient for evaluating the model's outputs for many instances of parameters. To illustrate the efficacy of the proposed methods, we present a few numerical examples for elliptic PDEs with multiscale and random inputs. In particular, a two-phase flow model in random porous media is simulated by the proposed sparse representation method.« less

Observability of ionospheric space-time structure with ISR: A simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swoboda, John; Semeter, Joshua; Zettergren, Matthew; Erickson, Philip J.

2017-02-01

The sources of error from electronically steerable array (ESA) incoherent scatter radar (ISR) systems are investigated both theoretically and with use of an open-source ISR simulator, developed by the authors, called Simulator for ISR (SimISR). The main sources of error incorporated in the simulator include statistical uncertainty, which arises due to nature of the measurement mechanism and the inherent space-time ambiguity from the sensor. SimISR can take a field of plasma parameters, parameterized by time and space, and create simulated ISR data at the scattered electric field (i.e., complex receiver voltage) level, subsequently processing these data to show possible reconstructions of the original parameter field. To demonstrate general utility, we show a number of simulation examples, with two cases using data from a self-consistent multifluid transport model. Results highlight the significant influence of the forward model of the ISR process and the resulting statistical uncertainty on plasma parameter measurements and the core experiment design trade-offs that must be made when planning observations. These conclusions further underscore the utility of this class of measurement simulator as a design tool for more optimal experiment design efforts using flexible ESA class ISR systems.

Analytical Verifications in Cryogenic Testing of NGST Advanced Mirror System Demonstrators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cummings, Ramona; Levine, Marie; VanBuren, Dave; Kegley, Jeff; Green, Joseph; Hadaway, James; Presson, Joan; Cline, Todd; Stahl, H. Philip (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Ground based testing is a critical and costly part of component, assembly, and system verifications of large space telescopes. At such tests, however, with integral teamwork by planners, analysts, and test personnel, segments can be included to validate specific analytical parameters and algorithms at relatively low additional cost. This paper opens with strategy of analytical verification segments added to vacuum cryogenic testing of Advanced Mirror System Demonstrator (AMSD) assemblies. These AMSD assemblies incorporate material and architecture concepts being considered in the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) design. The test segments for workmanship testing, cold survivability, and cold operation optical throughput are supplemented by segments for analytical verifications of specific structural, thermal, and optical parameters. Utilizing integrated modeling and separate materials testing, the paper continues with support plan for analyses, data, and observation requirements during the AMSD testing, currently slated for late calendar year 2002 to mid calendar year 2003. The paper includes anomaly resolution as gleaned by authors from similar analytical verification support of a previous large space telescope, then closes with draft of plans for parameter extrapolations, to form a well-verified portion of the integrated modeling being done for NGST performance predictions.

Cooperativity to increase Turing pattern space for synthetic biology.

PubMed

Diambra, Luis; Senthivel, Vivek Raj; Menendez, Diego Barcena; Isalan, Mark

2015-02-20

It is hard to bridge the gap between mathematical formulations and biological implementations of Turing patterns, yet this is necessary for both understanding and engineering these networks with synthetic biology approaches. Here, we model a reaction-diffusion system with two morphogens in a monostable regime, inspired by components that we recently described in a synthetic biology study in mammalian cells.1 The model employs a single promoter to express both the activator and inhibitor genes and produces Turing patterns over large regions of parameter space, using biologically interpretable Hill function reactions. We applied a stability analysis and identified rules for choosing biologically tunable parameter relationships to increase the likelihood of successful patterning. We show how to control Turing pattern sizes and time evolution by manipulating the values for production and degradation relationships. More importantly, our analysis predicts that steep dose-response functions arising from cooperativity are mandatory for Turing patterns. Greater steepness increases parameter space and even reduces the requirement for differential diffusion between activator and inhibitor. These results demonstrate some of the limitations of linear scenarios for reaction-diffusion systems and will help to guide projects to engineer synthetic Turing patterns.

The International Reference Ionosphere 2012 - a model of international collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilitza, Dieter; Altadill, David; Zhang, Yongliang; Mertens, Chris; Truhlik, Vladimir; Richards, Phil; McKinnell, Lee-Anne; Reinisch, Bodo

2014-02-01

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) project was established jointly by the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) and the International Union of Radio Science (URSI) in the late sixties with the goal to develop an international standard for the specification of plasma parameters in the Earth's ionosphere. COSPAR needed such a specification for the evaluation of environmental effects on spacecraft and experiments in space, and URSI for radiowave propagation studies and applications. At the request of COSPAR and URSI, IRI was developed as a data-based model to avoid the uncertainty of theory-based models which are only as good as the evolving theoretical understanding. Being based on most of the available and reliable observations of the ionospheric plasma from the ground and from space, IRI describes monthly averages of electron density, electron temperature, ion temperature, ion composition, and several additional parameters in the altitude range from 60 km to 2000 km. A working group of about 50 international ionospheric experts is in charge of developing and improving the IRI model. Over time as new data became available and new modeling techniques emerged, steadily improved editions of the IRI model have been published. This paper gives a brief history of the IRI project and describes the latest version of the model, IRI-2012. It also briefly discusses efforts to develop a real-time IRI model. The IRI homepage is at http://IRImodel.org.

A Two-Phase Space Resection Model for Accurate Topographic Reconstruction from Lunar Imagery with PushbroomScanners.

PubMed

Xu, Xuemiao; Zhang, Huaidong; Han, Guoqiang; Kwan, Kin Chung; Pang, Wai-Man; Fang, Jiaming; Zhao, Gansen

2016-04-11

Exterior orientation parameters' (EOP) estimation using space resection plays an important role in topographic reconstruction for push broom scanners. However, existing models of space resection are highly sensitive to errors in data. Unfortunately, for lunar imagery, the altitude data at the ground control points (GCPs) for space resection are error-prone. Thus, existing models fail to produce reliable EOPs. Motivated by a finding that for push broom scanners, angular rotations of EOPs can be estimated independent of the altitude data and only involving the geographic data at the GCPs, which are already provided, hence, we divide the modeling of space resection into two phases. Firstly, we estimate the angular rotations based on the reliable geographic data using our proposed mathematical model. Then, with the accurate angular rotations, the collinear equations for space resection are simplified into a linear problem, and the global optimal solution for the spatial position of EOPs can always be achieved. Moreover, a certainty term is integrated to penalize the unreliable altitude data for increasing the error tolerance. Experimental results evidence that our model can obtain more accurate EOPs and topographic maps not only for the simulated data, but also for the real data from Chang'E-1, compared to the existing space resection model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagos, Samson M.; Feng, Zhe; Burleyson, Casey D.

Regional cloud permitting model simulations of cloud populations observed during the 2011 ARM Madden Julian Oscillation Investigation Experiment/ Dynamics of Madden-Julian Experiment (AMIE/DYNAMO) field campaign are evaluated against radar and ship-based measurements. Sensitivity of model simulated surface rain rate statistics to parameters and parameterization of hydrometeor sizes in five commonly used WRF microphysics schemes are examined. It is shown that at 2 km grid spacing, the model generally overestimates rain rate from large and deep convective cores. Sensitivity runs involving variation of parameters that affect rain drop or ice particle size distribution (more aggressive break-up process etc) generally reduce themore » bias in rain-rate and boundary layer temperature statistics as the smaller particles become more vulnerable to evaporation. Furthermore significant improvement in the convective rain-rate statistics is observed when the horizontal grid-spacing is reduced to 1 km and 0.5 km, while it is worsened when run at 4 km grid spacing as increased turbulence enhances evaporation. The results suggest modulation of evaporation processes, through parameterization of turbulent mixing and break-up of hydrometeors may provide a potential avenue for correcting cloud statistics and associated boundary layer temperature biases in regional and global cloud permitting model simulations.« less

Maximizing the information learned from finite data selects a simple model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattingly, Henry H.; Transtrum, Mark K.; Abbott, Michael C.; Machta, Benjamin B.

2018-02-01

We use the language of uninformative Bayesian prior choice to study the selection of appropriately simple effective models. We advocate for the prior which maximizes the mutual information between parameters and predictions, learning as much as possible from limited data. When many parameters are poorly constrained by the available data, we find that this prior puts weight only on boundaries of the parameter space. Thus, it selects a lower-dimensional effective theory in a principled way, ignoring irrelevant parameter directions. In the limit where there are sufficient data to tightly constrain any number of parameters, this reduces to the Jeffreys prior. However, we argue that this limit is pathological when applied to the hyperribbon parameter manifolds generic in science, because it leads to dramatic dependence on effects invisible to experiment.

A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

PubMed

Wray, Christopher M; Bishop, Steven R

2016-01-01

Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the market price of an equity index option.

Optimizing cosmological surveys in a crowded market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassett, Bruce A.

2005-04-01

Optimizing the major next-generation cosmological surveys (such as SNAP, KAOS, etc.) is a key problem given our ignorance of the physics underlying cosmic acceleration and the plethora of surveys planned. We propose a Bayesian design framework which (1) maximizes the discrimination power of a survey without assuming any underlying dark-energy model, (2) finds the best niche survey geometry given current data and future competing experiments, (3) maximizes the cross section for serendipitous discoveries and (4) can be adapted to answer specific questions (such as “is dark energy dynamical?”). Integrated parameter-space optimization (IPSO) is a design framework that integrates projected parameter errors over an entire dark energy parameter space and then extremizes a figure of merit (such as Shannon entropy gain which we show is stable to off-diagonal covariance matrix perturbations) as a function of survey parameters using analytical, grid or MCMC techniques. We discuss examples where the optimization can be performed analytically. IPSO is thus a general, model-independent and scalable framework that allows us to appropriately use prior information to design the best possible surveys.

Application of Quality by Design to the characterization of the cell culture process of an Fc-Fusion protein.

PubMed

Rouiller, Yolande; Solacroup, Thomas; Deparis, Véronique; Barbafieri, Marco; Gleixner, Ralf; Broly, Hervé; Eon-Duval, Alex

2012-06-01

The production bioreactor step of an Fc-Fusion protein manufacturing cell culture process was characterized following Quality by Design principles. Using scientific knowledge derived from the literature and process knowledge gathered during development studies and manufacturing to support clinical trials, potential critical and key process parameters with a possible impact on product quality and process performance, respectively, were determined during a risk assessment exercise. The identified process parameters were evaluated using a design of experiment approach. The regression models generated from the data allowed characterizing the impact of the identified process parameters on quality attributes. The main parameters having an impact on product titer were pH and dissolved oxygen, while those having the highest impact on process- and product-related impurities and variants were pH and culture duration. The models derived from characterization studies were used to define the cell culture process design space. The design space limits were set in such a way as to ensure that the drug substance material would consistently have the desired quality. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.