Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach.

PubMed

Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I; Pitt, Mark A

2013-02-01

Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models.

Detecting Adaptation in Protein-Coding Genes Using a Bayesian Site-Heterogeneous Mutation-Selection Codon Substitution Model.

PubMed

Rodrigue, Nicolas; Lartillot, Nicolas

2017-01-01

Codon substitution models have traditionally attempted to uncover signatures of adaptation within protein-coding genes by contrasting the rates of synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions. Another modeling approach, known as the mutation-selection framework, attempts to explicitly account for selective patterns at the amino acid level, with some approaches allowing for heterogeneity in these patterns across codon sites. Under such a model, substitutions at a given position occur at the neutral or nearly neutral rate when they are synonymous, or when they correspond to replacements between amino acids of similar fitness; substitutions from high to low (low to high) fitness amino acids have comparatively low (high) rates. Here, we study the use of such a mutation-selection framework as a null model for the detection of adaptation. Following previous works in this direction, we include a deviation parameter that has the effect of capturing the surplus, or deficit, in non-synonymous rates, relative to what would be expected under a mutation-selection modeling framework that includes a Dirichlet process approach to account for across-codon-site variation in amino acid fitness profiles. We use simulations, along with a few real data sets, to study the behavior of the approach, and find it to have good power with a low false-positive rate. Altogether, we emphasize the potential of recent mutation-selection models in the detection of adaptation, calling for further model refinements as well as large-scale applications. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Multilocus approaches for the measurement of selection on correlated genetic loci.

PubMed

Gompert, Zachariah; Egan, Scott P; Barrett, Rowan D H; Feder, Jeffrey L; Nosil, Patrik

2017-01-01

The study of ecological speciation is inherently linked to the study of selection. Methods for estimating phenotypic selection within a generation based on associations between trait values and fitness (e.g. survival) of individuals are established. These methods attempt to disentangle selection acting directly on a trait from indirect selection caused by correlations with other traits via multivariate statistical approaches (i.e. inference of selection gradients). The estimation of selection on genotypic or genomic variation could also benefit from disentangling direct and indirect selection on genetic loci. However, achieving this goal is difficult with genomic data because the number of potentially correlated genetic loci (p) is very large relative to the number of individuals sampled (n). In other words, the number of model parameters exceeds the number of observations (p ≫ n). We present simulations examining the utility of whole-genome regression approaches (i.e. Bayesian sparse linear mixed models) for quantifying direct selection in cases where p ≫ n. Such models have been used for genome-wide association mapping and are common in artificial breeding. Our results show they hold promise for studies of natural selection in the wild and thus of ecological speciation. But we also demonstrate important limitations to the approach and discuss study designs required for more robust inferences. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Attentional Selection in Object Recognition

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-02-01

order. It also affects the choice of strategies in both the 24 A Computational Model of Attentional Selection filtering and arbiter stages. The set...such processing. In Treisman’s model this was hidden in the concept of the selection filter . Later computational models of attention tried to...This thesis presents a novel approach to the selection problem by propos. ing a computational model of visual attentional selection as a paradigm for

Continuous-time discrete-space models for animal movement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Alldredge, Mat W.

2015-01-01

The processes influencing animal movement and resource selection are complex and varied. Past efforts to model behavioral changes over time used Bayesian statistical models with variable parameter space, such as reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches, which are computationally demanding and inaccessible to many practitioners. We present a continuous-time discrete-space (CTDS) model of animal movement that can be fit using standard generalized linear modeling (GLM) methods. This CTDS approach allows for the joint modeling of location-based as well as directional drivers of movement. Changing behavior over time is modeled using a varying-coefficient framework which maintains the computational simplicity of a GLM approach, and variable selection is accomplished using a group lasso penalty. We apply our approach to a study of two mountain lions (Puma concolor) in Colorado, USA.

Variable selection in semiparametric cure models based on penalized likelihood, with application to breast cancer clinical trials.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Peng, Yingwei; Tu, Dongsheng; Liang, Hua

2012-10-30

Survival data with a sizable cure fraction are commonly encountered in cancer research. The semiparametric proportional hazards cure model has been recently used to analyze such data. As seen in the analysis of data from a breast cancer study, a variable selection approach is needed to identify important factors in predicting the cure status and risk of breast cancer recurrence. However, no specific variable selection method for the cure model is available. In this paper, we present a variable selection approach with penalized likelihood for the cure model. The estimation can be implemented easily by combining the computational methods for penalized logistic regression and the penalized Cox proportional hazards models with the expectation-maximization algorithm. We illustrate the proposed approach on data from a breast cancer study. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. We used and compared different penalty functions in the simulation studies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach

PubMed Central

Cavagnaro, Daniel R.; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I.; Pitt, Mark A.

2014-01-01

Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

Bayesian evidence computation for model selection in non-linear geoacoustic inference problems.

PubMed

Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E; Osler, John C

2010-12-01

This paper applies a general Bayesian inference approach, based on Bayesian evidence computation, to geoacoustic inversion of interface-wave dispersion data. Quantitative model selection is carried out by computing the evidence (normalizing constants) for several model parameterizations using annealed importance sampling. The resulting posterior probability density estimate is compared to estimates obtained from Metropolis-Hastings sampling to ensure consistent results. The approach is applied to invert interface-wave dispersion data collected on the Scotian Shelf, off the east coast of Canada for the sediment shear-wave velocity profile. Results are consistent with previous work on these data but extend the analysis to a rigorous approach including model selection and uncertainty analysis. The results are also consistent with core samples and seismic reflection measurements carried out in the area.

Bayesian accounts of covert selective attention: A tutorial review.

PubMed

Vincent, Benjamin T

2015-05-01

Decision making and optimal observer models offer an important theoretical approach to the study of covert selective attention. While their probabilistic formulation allows quantitative comparison to human performance, the models can be complex and their insights are not always immediately apparent. Part 1 establishes the theoretical appeal of the Bayesian approach, and introduces the way in which probabilistic approaches can be applied to covert search paradigms. Part 2 presents novel formulations of Bayesian models of 4 important covert attention paradigms, illustrating optimal observer predictions over a range of experimental manipulations. Graphical model notation is used to present models in an accessible way and Supplementary Code is provided to help bridge the gap between model theory and practical implementation. Part 3 reviews a large body of empirical and modelling evidence showing that many experimental phenomena in the domain of covert selective attention are a set of by-products. These effects emerge as the result of observers conducting Bayesian inference with noisy sensory observations, prior expectations, and knowledge of the generative structure of the stimulus environment.

Feature and Region Selection for Visual Learning.

PubMed

Zhao, Ji; Wang, Liantao; Cabral, Ricardo; De la Torre, Fernando

2016-03-01

Visual learning problems, such as object classification and action recognition, are typically approached using extensions of the popular bag-of-words (BoWs) model. Despite its great success, it is unclear what visual features the BoW model is learning. Which regions in the image or video are used to discriminate among classes? Which are the most discriminative visual words? Answering these questions is fundamental for understanding existing BoW models and inspiring better models for visual recognition. To answer these questions, this paper presents a method for feature selection and region selection in the visual BoW model. This allows for an intermediate visualization of the features and regions that are important for visual learning. The main idea is to assign latent weights to the features or regions, and jointly optimize these latent variables with the parameters of a classifier (e.g., support vector machine). There are four main benefits of our approach: 1) our approach accommodates non-linear additive kernels, such as the popular χ(2) and intersection kernel; 2) our approach is able to handle both regions in images and spatio-temporal regions in videos in a unified way; 3) the feature selection problem is convex, and both problems can be solved using a scalable reduced gradient method; and 4) we point out strong connections with multiple kernel learning and multiple instance learning approaches. Experimental results in the PASCAL VOC 2007, MSR Action Dataset II and YouTube illustrate the benefits of our approach.

TMDL RUSLE MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

We developed a simplified spreadsheet modeling approach for characterizing and prioritizing sources of sediment loadings from watersheds in the United States. A simplified modeling approach was developed to evaluate sediment loadings from watersheds and selected land segments. ...

Selection, calibration, and validation of models of tumor growth.

PubMed

Lima, E A B F; Oden, J T; Hormuth, D A; Yankeelov, T E; Almeida, R C

2016-11-01

This paper presents general approaches for addressing some of the most important issues in predictive computational oncology concerned with developing classes of predictive models of tumor growth. First, the process of developing mathematical models of vascular tumors evolving in the complex, heterogeneous, macroenvironment of living tissue; second, the selection of the most plausible models among these classes, given relevant observational data; third, the statistical calibration and validation of models in these classes, and finally, the prediction of key Quantities of Interest (QOIs) relevant to patient survival and the effect of various therapies. The most challenging aspects of this endeavor is that all of these issues often involve confounding uncertainties: in observational data, in model parameters, in model selection, and in the features targeted in the prediction. Our approach can be referred to as "model agnostic" in that no single model is advocated; rather, a general approach that explores powerful mixture-theory representations of tissue behavior while accounting for a range of relevant biological factors is presented, which leads to many potentially predictive models. Then representative classes are identified which provide a starting point for the implementation of OPAL, the Occam Plausibility Algorithm (OPAL) which enables the modeler to select the most plausible models (for given data) and to determine if the model is a valid tool for predicting tumor growth and morphology ( in vivo ). All of these approaches account for uncertainties in the model, the observational data, the model parameters, and the target QOI. We demonstrate these processes by comparing a list of models for tumor growth, including reaction-diffusion models, phase-fields models, and models with and without mechanical deformation effects, for glioma growth measured in murine experiments. Examples are provided that exhibit quite acceptable predictions of tumor growth in laboratory animals while demonstrating successful implementations of OPAL.

Comparison of Models and Whole-Genome Profiling Approaches for Genomic-Enabled Prediction of Septoria Tritici Blotch, Stagonospora Nodorum Blotch, and Tan Spot Resistance in Wheat.

PubMed

Juliana, Philomin; Singh, Ravi P; Singh, Pawan K; Crossa, Jose; Rutkoski, Jessica E; Poland, Jesse A; Bergstrom, Gary C; Sorrells, Mark E

2017-07-01

The leaf spotting diseases in wheat that include Septoria tritici blotch (STB) caused by , Stagonospora nodorum blotch (SNB) caused by , and tan spot (TS) caused by pose challenges to breeding programs in selecting for resistance. A promising approach that could enable selection prior to phenotyping is genomic selection that uses genome-wide markers to estimate breeding values (BVs) for quantitative traits. To evaluate this approach for seedling and/or adult plant resistance (APR) to STB, SNB, and TS, we compared the predictive ability of least-squares (LS) approach with genomic-enabled prediction models including genomic best linear unbiased predictor (GBLUP), Bayesian ridge regression (BRR), Bayes A (BA), Bayes B (BB), Bayes Cπ (BC), Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (BL), and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces markers (RKHS-M), a pedigree-based model (RKHS-P) and RKHS markers and pedigree (RKHS-MP). We observed that LS gave the lowest prediction accuracies and RKHS-MP, the highest. The genomic-enabled prediction models and RKHS-P gave similar accuracies. The increase in accuracy using genomic prediction models over LS was 48%. The mean genomic prediction accuracies were 0.45 for STB (APR), 0.55 for SNB (seedling), 0.66 for TS (seedling) and 0.48 for TS (APR). We also compared markers from two whole-genome profiling approaches: genotyping by sequencing (GBS) and diversity arrays technology sequencing (DArTseq) for prediction. While, GBS markers performed slightly better than DArTseq, combining markers from the two approaches did not improve accuracies. We conclude that implementing GS in breeding for these diseases would help to achieve higher accuracies and rapid gains from selection. Copyright © 2017 Crop Science Society of America.

Identification of landscape features influencing gene flow: How useful are habitat selection models?

Treesearch

Gretchen H. Roffler; Michael K. Schwartz; Kristine Pilgrim; Sandra L. Talbot; George K. Sage; Layne G. Adams; Gordon Luikart

2016-01-01

Understanding how dispersal patterns are influenced by landscape heterogeneity is critical for modeling species connectivity. Resource selection function (RSF) models are increasingly used in landscape genetics approaches. However, because the ecological factors that drive habitat selection may be different from those influencing dispersal and gene flow, it is...

HABITAT MODELING APPROACHES FOR RESTORATION SITE SELECTION

EPA Science Inventory

Numerous modeling approaches have been used to develop predictive models of species-environment and species-habitat relationships. These models have been used in conservation biology and habitat or species management, but their application to restoration efforts has been minimal...

Bridging Scales: A Model-Based Assessment of the Technical Tidal-Stream Energy Resource off Massachusetts, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowles, G. W.; Hakim, A.; Churchill, J. H.

2016-02-01

Tidal in-stream energy conversion (TISEC) facilities provide a highly predictable and dependable source of energy. Given the economic and social incentives to migrate towards renewable energy sources there has been tremendous interest in the technology. Key challenges to the design process stem from the wide range of problem scales extending from device to array. In the present approach we apply a multi-model approach to bridge the scales of interest and select optimal device geometries to estimate the technical resource for several realistic sites in the coastal waters of Massachusetts, USA. The approach links two computational models. To establish flow conditions at site scales ( 10m), a barotropic setup of the unstructured grid ocean model FVCOM is employed. The model is validated using shipboard and fixed ADCP as well as pressure data. For device scale, the structured multiblock flow solver SUmb is selected. A large ensemble of simulations of 2D cross-flow tidal turbines is used to construct a surrogate design model. The surrogate model is then queried using velocity profiles extracted from the tidal model to determine the optimal geometry for the conditions at each site. After device selection, the annual technical yield of the array is evaluated with FVCOM using a linear momentum actuator disk approach to model the turbines. Results for several key Massachusetts sites including comparison with theoretical approaches will be presented.

One- and two-objective approaches to an area-constrained habitat reserve site selection problem

Treesearch

Stephanie Snyder; Charles ReVelle; Robert Haight

2004-01-01

We compare several ways to model a habitat reserve site selection problem in which an upper bound on the total area of the selected sites is included. The models are cast as optimization coverage models drawn from the location science literature. Classic covering problems typically include a constraint on the number of sites that can be selected. If potential reserve...

Quantitative Rheological Model Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freund, Jonathan; Ewoldt, Randy

2014-11-01

The more parameters in a rheological the better it will reproduce available data, though this does not mean that it is necessarily a better justified model. Good fits are only part of model selection. We employ a Bayesian inference approach that quantifies model suitability by balancing closeness to data against both the number of model parameters and their a priori uncertainty. The penalty depends upon prior-to-calibration expectation of the viable range of values that model parameters might take, which we discuss as an essential aspect of the selection criterion. Models that are physically grounded are usually accompanied by tighter physical constraints on their respective parameters. The analysis reflects a basic principle: models grounded in physics can be expected to enjoy greater generality and perform better away from where they are calibrated. In contrast, purely empirical models can provide comparable fits, but the model selection framework penalizes their a priori uncertainty. We demonstrate the approach by selecting the best-justified number of modes in a Multi-mode Maxwell description of PVA-Borax. We also quantify relative merits of the Maxwell model relative to powerlaw fits and purely empirical fits for PVA-Borax, a viscoelastic liquid, and gluten.

SELECTION OF CANDIDATE EUTROPHICATION MODELS FOR TOTAL MAXIMUM DAILY LOADS ANALYSES

EPA Science Inventory

A tiered approach was developed to evaluate candidate eutrophication models to select a common suite of models that could be used for Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDL) analyses in estuaries, rivers, and lakes/reservoirs. Consideration for linkage to watershed models and ecologica...

Kernel learning at the first level of inference.

PubMed

Cawley, Gavin C; Talbot, Nicola L C

2014-05-01

Kernel learning methods, whether Bayesian or frequentist, typically involve multiple levels of inference, with the coefficients of the kernel expansion being determined at the first level and the kernel and regularisation parameters carefully tuned at the second level, a process known as model selection. Model selection for kernel machines is commonly performed via optimisation of a suitable model selection criterion, often based on cross-validation or theoretical performance bounds. However, if there are a large number of kernel parameters, as for instance in the case of automatic relevance determination (ARD), there is a substantial risk of over-fitting the model selection criterion, resulting in poor generalisation performance. In this paper we investigate the possibility of learning the kernel, for the Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) classifier, at the first level of inference, i.e. parameter optimisation. The kernel parameters and the coefficients of the kernel expansion are jointly optimised at the first level of inference, minimising a training criterion with an additional regularisation term acting on the kernel parameters. The key advantage of this approach is that the values of only two regularisation parameters need be determined in model selection, substantially alleviating the problem of over-fitting the model selection criterion. The benefits of this approach are demonstrated using a suite of synthetic and real-world binary classification benchmark problems, where kernel learning at the first level of inference is shown to be statistically superior to the conventional approach, improves on our previous work (Cawley and Talbot, 2007) and is competitive with Multiple Kernel Learning approaches, but with reduced computational expense. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Congruence analysis of geodetic networks - hypothesis tests versus model selection by information criteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmann, Rüdiger; Lösler, Michael

2017-12-01

Geodetic deformation analysis can be interpreted as a model selection problem. The null model indicates that no deformation has occurred. It is opposed to a number of alternative models, which stipulate different deformation patterns. A common way to select the right model is the usage of a statistical hypothesis test. However, since we have to test a series of deformation patterns, this must be a multiple test. As an alternative solution for the test problem, we propose the p-value approach. Another approach arises from information theory. Here, the Akaike information criterion (AIC) or some alternative is used to select an appropriate model for a given set of observations. Both approaches are discussed and applied to two test scenarios: A synthetic levelling network and the Delft test data set. It is demonstrated that they work but behave differently, sometimes even producing different results. Hypothesis tests are well-established in geodesy, but may suffer from an unfavourable choice of the decision error rates. The multiple test also suffers from statistical dependencies between the test statistics, which are neglected. Both problems are overcome by applying information criterions like AIC.

Multicriteria framework for selecting a process modelling language

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scanavachi Moreira Campos, Ana Carolina; Teixeira de Almeida, Adiel

2016-01-01

The choice of process modelling language can affect business process management (BPM) since each modelling language shows different features of a given process and may limit the ways in which a process can be described and analysed. However, choosing the appropriate modelling language for process modelling has become a difficult task because of the availability of a large number modelling languages and also due to the lack of guidelines on evaluating, and comparing languages so as to assist in selecting the most appropriate one. This paper proposes a framework for selecting a modelling language in accordance with the purposes of modelling. This framework is based on the semiotic quality framework (SEQUAL) for evaluating process modelling languages and a multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) approach in order to select the most appropriate language for BPM. This study does not attempt to set out new forms of assessment and evaluation criteria, but does attempt to demonstrate how two existing approaches can be combined so as to solve the problem of selection of modelling language. The framework is described in this paper and then demonstrated by means of an example. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of using SEQUAL and MCDA in an integrated manner are discussed.

Exploring Several Methods of Groundwater Model Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samani, Saeideh; Ye, Ming; Asghari Moghaddam, Asghar

2017-04-01

Selecting reliable models for simulating groundwater flow and solute transport is essential to groundwater resources management and protection. This work is to explore several model selection methods for avoiding over-complex and/or over-parameterized groundwater models. We consider six groundwater flow models with different numbers (6, 10, 10, 13, 13 and 15) of model parameters. These models represent alternative geological interpretations, recharge estimates, and boundary conditions at a study site in Iran. The models were developed with Model Muse, and calibrated against observations of hydraulic head using UCODE. Model selection was conducted by using the following four approaches: (1) Rank the models using their root mean square error (RMSE) obtained after UCODE-based model calibration, (2) Calculate model probability using GLUE method, (3) Evaluate model probability using model selection criteria (AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC), and (4) Evaluate model weights using the Fuzzy Multi-Criteria-Decision-Making (MCDM) approach. MCDM is based on the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy technique for order performance, which is to identify the ideal solution by a gradual expansion from the local to the global scale of model parameters. The KIC and MCDM methods are superior to other methods, as they consider not only the fit between observed and simulated data and the number of parameter, but also uncertainty in model parameters. Considering these factors can prevent from occurring over-complexity and over-parameterization, when selecting the appropriate groundwater flow models. These methods selected, as the best model, one with average complexity (10 parameters) and the best parameter estimation (model 3).

Applying Bayesian Item Selection Approaches to Adaptive Tests Using Polytomous Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Penfield, Randall D.

2006-01-01

This study applied the maximum expected information (MEI) and the maximum posterior-weighted information (MPI) approaches of computer adaptive testing item selection to the case of a test using polytomous items following the partial credit model. The MEI and MPI approaches are described. A simulation study compared the efficiency of ability…

How can we model selectively neutral density dependence in evolutionary games.

PubMed

Argasinski, Krzysztof; Kozłowski, Jan

2008-03-01

The problem of density dependence appears in all approaches to the modelling of population dynamics. It is pertinent to classic models (i.e., Lotka-Volterra's), and also population genetics and game theoretical models related to the replicator dynamics. There is no density dependence in the classic formulation of replicator dynamics, which means that population size may grow to infinity. Therefore the question arises: How is unlimited population growth suppressed in frequency-dependent models? Two categories of solutions can be found in the literature. In the first, replicator dynamics is independent of background fitness. In the second type of solution, a multiplicative suppression coefficient is used, as in a logistic equation. Both approaches have disadvantages. The first one is incompatible with the methods of life history theory and basic probabilistic intuitions. The logistic type of suppression of per capita growth rate stops trajectories of selection when population size reaches the maximal value (carrying capacity); hence this method does not satisfy selective neutrality. To overcome these difficulties, we must explicitly consider turn-over of individuals dependent on mortality rate. This new approach leads to two interesting predictions. First, the equilibrium value of population size is lower than carrying capacity and depends on the mortality rate. Second, although the phase portrait of selection trajectories is the same as in density-independent replicator dynamics, pace of selection slows down when population size approaches equilibrium, and then remains constant and dependent on the rate of turn-over of individuals.

A Simple Approach to Account for Climate Model Interdependence in Multi-Model Ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herger, N.; Abramowitz, G.; Angelil, O. M.; Knutti, R.; Sanderson, B.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensembles are an indispensable tool for future climate projection and its uncertainty quantification. Ensembles containing multiple climate models generally have increased skill, consistency and reliability. Due to the lack of agreed-on alternatives, most scientists use the equally-weighted multi-model mean as they subscribe to model democracy ("one model, one vote").Different research groups are known to share sections of code, parameterizations in their model, literature, or even whole model components. Therefore, individual model runs do not represent truly independent estimates. Ignoring this dependence structure might lead to a false model consensus, wrong estimation of uncertainty and effective number of independent models.Here, we present a way to partially address this problem by selecting a subset of CMIP5 model runs so that its climatological mean minimizes the RMSE compared to a given observation product. Due to the cancelling out of errors, regional biases in the ensemble mean are reduced significantly.Using a model-as-truth experiment we demonstrate that those regional biases persist into the future and we are not fitting noise, thus providing improved observationally-constrained projections of the 21st century. The optimally selected ensemble shows significantly higher global mean surface temperature projections than the original ensemble, where all the model runs are considered. Moreover, the spread is decreased well beyond that expected from the decreased ensemble size.Several previous studies have recommended an ensemble selection approach based on performance ranking of the model runs. Here, we show that this approach can perform even worse than randomly selecting ensemble members and can thus be harmful. We suggest that accounting for interdependence in the ensemble selection process is a necessary step for robust projections for use in impact assessments, adaptation and mitigation of climate change.

A Gambler's Model of Natural Selection.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nolan, Michael J.; Ostrovsky, David S.

1996-01-01

Presents an activity that highlights the mechanism and power of natural selection. Allows students to think in terms of modeling a biological process and instills an appreciation for a mathematical approach to biological problems. (JRH)

A predictive modeling approach to increasing the economic effectiveness of disease management programs.

PubMed

Bayerstadler, Andreas; Benstetter, Franz; Heumann, Christian; Winter, Fabian

2014-09-01

Predictive Modeling (PM) techniques are gaining importance in the worldwide health insurance business. Modern PM methods are used for customer relationship management, risk evaluation or medical management. This article illustrates a PM approach that enables the economic potential of (cost-) effective disease management programs (DMPs) to be fully exploited by optimized candidate selection as an example of successful data-driven business management. The approach is based on a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) that is easy to apply for health insurance companies. By means of a small portfolio from an emerging country, we show that our GLM approach is stable compared to more sophisticated regression techniques in spite of the difficult data environment. Additionally, we demonstrate for this example of a setting that our model can compete with the expensive solutions offered by professional PM vendors and outperforms non-predictive standard approaches for DMP selection commonly used in the market.

Improving stability of prediction models based on correlated omics data by using network approaches.

PubMed

Tissier, Renaud; Houwing-Duistermaat, Jeanine; Rodríguez-Girondo, Mar

2018-01-01

Building prediction models based on complex omics datasets such as transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics remains a challenge in bioinformatics and biostatistics. Regularized regression techniques are typically used to deal with the high dimensionality of these datasets. However, due to the presence of correlation in the datasets, it is difficult to select the best model and application of these methods yields unstable results. We propose a novel strategy for model selection where the obtained models also perform well in terms of overall predictability. Several three step approaches are considered, where the steps are 1) network construction, 2) clustering to empirically derive modules or pathways, and 3) building a prediction model incorporating the information on the modules. For the first step, we use weighted correlation networks and Gaussian graphical modelling. Identification of groups of features is performed by hierarchical clustering. The grouping information is included in the prediction model by using group-based variable selection or group-specific penalization. We compare the performance of our new approaches with standard regularized regression via simulations. Based on these results we provide recommendations for selecting a strategy for building a prediction model given the specific goal of the analysis and the sizes of the datasets. Finally we illustrate the advantages of our approach by application of the methodology to two problems, namely prediction of body mass index in the DIetary, Lifestyle, and Genetic determinants of Obesity and Metabolic syndrome study (DILGOM) and prediction of response of each breast cancer cell line to treatment with specific drugs using a breast cancer cell lines pharmacogenomics dataset.

Elementary Teachers' Selection and Use of Visual Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Tammy D.; Jones, M. Gail

2018-01-01

As science grows in complexity, science teachers face an increasing challenge of helping students interpret models that represent complex science systems. Little is known about how teachers select and use models when planning lessons. This mixed methods study investigated the pedagogical approaches and visual models used by elementary in-service…

QSPR models for half-wave reduction potential of steroids: a comparative study between feature selection and feature extraction from subsets of or entire set of descriptors.

PubMed

Hemmateenejad, Bahram; Yazdani, Mahdieh

2009-02-16

Steroids are widely distributed in nature and are found in plants, animals, and fungi in abundance. A data set consists of a diverse set of steroids have been used to develop quantitative structure-electrochemistry relationship (QSER) models for their half-wave reduction potential. Modeling was established by means of multiple linear regression (MLR) and principle component regression (PCR) analyses. In MLR analysis, the QSPR models were constructed by first grouping descriptors and then stepwise selection of variables from each group (MLR1) and stepwise selection of predictor variables from the pool of all calculated descriptors (MLR2). Similar procedure was used in PCR analysis so that the principal components (or features) were extracted from different group of descriptors (PCR1) and from entire set of descriptors (PCR2). The resulted models were evaluated using cross-validation, chance correlation, application to prediction reduction potential of some test samples and accessing applicability domain. Both MLR approaches represented accurate results however the QSPR model found by MLR1 was statistically more significant. PCR1 approach produced a model as accurate as MLR approaches whereas less accurate results were obtained by PCR2 approach. In overall, the correlation coefficients of cross-validation and prediction of the QSPR models resulted from MLR1, MLR2 and PCR1 approaches were higher than 90%, which show the high ability of the models to predict reduction potential of the studied steroids.

Genomic Selection in Multi-environment Crop Trials.

PubMed

Oakey, Helena; Cullis, Brian; Thompson, Robin; Comadran, Jordi; Halpin, Claire; Waugh, Robbie

2016-05-03

Genomic selection in crop breeding introduces modeling challenges not found in animal studies. These include the need to accommodate replicate plants for each line, consider spatial variation in field trials, address line by environment interactions, and capture nonadditive effects. Here, we propose a flexible single-stage genomic selection approach that resolves these issues. Our linear mixed model incorporates spatial variation through environment-specific terms, and also randomization-based design terms. It considers marker, and marker by environment interactions using ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction to extend genomic selection to multiple environments. Since the approach uses the raw data from line replicates, the line genetic variation is partitioned into marker and nonmarker residual genetic variation (i.e., additive and nonadditive effects). This results in a more precise estimate of marker genetic effects. Using barley height data from trials, in 2 different years, of up to 477 cultivars, we demonstrate that our new genomic selection model improves predictions compared to current models. Analyzing single trials revealed improvements in predictive ability of up to 5.7%. For the multiple environment trial (MET) model, combining both year trials improved predictive ability up to 11.4% compared to a single environment analysis. Benefits were significant even when fewer markers were used. Compared to a single-year standard model run with 3490 markers, our partitioned MET model achieved the same predictive ability using between 500 and 1000 markers depending on the trial. Our approach can be used to increase accuracy and confidence in the selection of the best lines for breeding and/or, to reduce costs by using fewer markers. Copyright © 2016 Oakey et al.

An automated process for building reliable and optimal in vitro/in vivo correlation models based on Monte Carlo simulations.

PubMed

Sutton, Steven C; Hu, Mingxiu

2006-05-05

Many mathematical models have been proposed for establishing an in vitro/in vivo correlation (IVIVC). The traditional IVIVC model building process consists of 5 steps: deconvolution, model fitting, convolution, prediction error evaluation, and cross-validation. This is a time-consuming process and typically a few models at most are tested for any given data set. The objectives of this work were to (1) propose a statistical tool to screen models for further development of an IVIVC, (2) evaluate the performance of each model under different circumstances, and (3) investigate the effectiveness of common statistical model selection criteria for choosing IVIVC models. A computer program was developed to explore which model(s) would be most likely to work well with a random variation from the original formulation. The process used Monte Carlo simulation techniques to build IVIVC models. Data-based model selection criteria (Akaike Information Criteria [AIC], R2) and the probability of passing the Food and Drug Administration "prediction error" requirement was calculated. To illustrate this approach, several real data sets representing a broad range of release profiles are used to illustrate the process and to demonstrate the advantages of this automated process over the traditional approach. The Hixson-Crowell and Weibull models were often preferred over the linear. When evaluating whether a Level A IVIVC model was possible, the model selection criteria AIC generally selected the best model. We believe that the approach we proposed may be a rapid tool to determine which IVIVC model (if any) is the most applicable.

Path analysis and multi-criteria decision making: an approach for multivariate model selection and analysis in health.

PubMed

Vasconcelos, A G; Almeida, R M; Nobre, F F

2001-08-01

This paper introduces an approach that includes non-quantitative factors for the selection and assessment of multivariate complex models in health. A goodness-of-fit based methodology combined with fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making approach is proposed for model selection. Models were obtained using the Path Analysis (PA) methodology in order to explain the interrelationship between health determinants and the post-neonatal component of infant mortality in 59 municipalities of Brazil in the year 1991. Socioeconomic and demographic factors were used as exogenous variables, and environmental, health service and agglomeration as endogenous variables. Five PA models were developed and accepted by statistical criteria of goodness-of fit. These models were then submitted to a group of experts, seeking to characterize their preferences, according to predefined criteria that tried to evaluate model relevance and plausibility. Fuzzy set techniques were used to rank the alternative models according to the number of times a model was superior to ("dominated") the others. The best-ranked model explained above 90% of the endogenous variables variation, and showed the favorable influences of income and education levels on post-neonatal mortality. It also showed the unfavorable effect on mortality of fast population growth, through precarious dwelling conditions and decreased access to sanitation. It was possible to aggregate expert opinions in model evaluation. The proposed procedure for model selection allowed the inclusion of subjective information in a clear and systematic manner.

A practitioner's guide to persuasion: an overview of 15 selected persuasion theories, models and frameworks.

PubMed

Cameron, Kenzie A

2009-03-01

To provide a brief overview of 15 selected persuasion theories and models, and to present examples of their use in health communication research. The theories are categorized as message effects models, attitude-behavior approaches, cognitive processing theories and models, consistency theories, inoculation theory, and functional approaches. As it is often the intent of a practitioner to shape, reinforce, or change a patient's behavior, familiarity with theories of persuasion may lead to the development of novel communication approaches with existing patients. This article serves as an introductory primer to theories of persuasion with applications to health communication research. Understanding key constructs and general formulations of persuasive theories may allow practitioners to employ useful theoretical frameworks when interacting with patients.

Variable selection for confounder control, flexible modeling and Collaborative Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation in causal inference

PubMed Central

Schnitzer, Mireille E.; Lok, Judith J.; Gruber, Susan

2015-01-01

This paper investigates the appropriateness of the integration of flexible propensity score modeling (nonparametric or machine learning approaches) in semiparametric models for the estimation of a causal quantity, such as the mean outcome under treatment. We begin with an overview of some of the issues involved in knowledge-based and statistical variable selection in causal inference and the potential pitfalls of automated selection based on the fit of the propensity score. Using a simple example, we directly show the consequences of adjusting for pure causes of the exposure when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Such variables are likely to be selected when using a naive approach to model selection for the propensity score. We describe how the method of Collaborative Targeted minimum loss-based estimation (C-TMLE; van der Laan and Gruber, 2010) capitalizes on the collaborative double robustness property of semiparametric efficient estimators to select covariates for the propensity score based on the error in the conditional outcome model. Finally, we compare several approaches to automated variable selection in low-and high-dimensional settings through a simulation study. From this simulation study, we conclude that using IPTW with flexible prediction for the propensity score can result in inferior estimation, while Targeted minimum loss-based estimation and C-TMLE may benefit from flexible prediction and remain robust to the presence of variables that are highly correlated with treatment. However, in our study, standard influence function-based methods for the variance underestimated the standard errors, resulting in poor coverage under certain data-generating scenarios. PMID:26226129

Variable Selection for Confounder Control, Flexible Modeling and Collaborative Targeted Minimum Loss-Based Estimation in Causal Inference.

PubMed

Schnitzer, Mireille E; Lok, Judith J; Gruber, Susan

2016-05-01

This paper investigates the appropriateness of the integration of flexible propensity score modeling (nonparametric or machine learning approaches) in semiparametric models for the estimation of a causal quantity, such as the mean outcome under treatment. We begin with an overview of some of the issues involved in knowledge-based and statistical variable selection in causal inference and the potential pitfalls of automated selection based on the fit of the propensity score. Using a simple example, we directly show the consequences of adjusting for pure causes of the exposure when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Such variables are likely to be selected when using a naive approach to model selection for the propensity score. We describe how the method of Collaborative Targeted minimum loss-based estimation (C-TMLE; van der Laan and Gruber, 2010 [27]) capitalizes on the collaborative double robustness property of semiparametric efficient estimators to select covariates for the propensity score based on the error in the conditional outcome model. Finally, we compare several approaches to automated variable selection in low- and high-dimensional settings through a simulation study. From this simulation study, we conclude that using IPTW with flexible prediction for the propensity score can result in inferior estimation, while Targeted minimum loss-based estimation and C-TMLE may benefit from flexible prediction and remain robust to the presence of variables that are highly correlated with treatment. However, in our study, standard influence function-based methods for the variance underestimated the standard errors, resulting in poor coverage under certain data-generating scenarios.

Bayesian Model Selection under Time Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoege, M.; Nowak, W.; Illman, W. A.

2017-12-01

Bayesian model selection (BMS) provides a consistent framework for rating and comparing models in multi-model inference. In cases where models of vastly different complexity compete with each other, we also face vastly different computational runtimes of such models. For instance, time series of a quantity of interest can be simulated by an autoregressive process model that takes even less than a second for one run, or by a partial differential equations-based model with runtimes up to several hours or even days. The classical BMS is based on a quantity called Bayesian model evidence (BME). It determines the model weights in the selection process and resembles a trade-off between bias of a model and its complexity. However, in practice, the runtime of models is another weight relevant factor for model selection. Hence, we believe that it should be included, leading to an overall trade-off problem between bias, variance and computing effort. We approach this triple trade-off from the viewpoint of our ability to generate realizations of the models under a given computational budget. One way to obtain BME values is through sampling-based integration techniques. We argue with the fact that more expensive models can be sampled much less under time constraints than faster models (in straight proportion to their runtime). The computed evidence in favor of a more expensive model is statistically less significant than the evidence computed in favor of a faster model, since sampling-based strategies are always subject to statistical sampling error. We present a straightforward way to include this misbalance into the model weights that are the basis for model selection. Our approach follows directly from the idea of insufficient significance. It is based on a computationally cheap bootstrapping error estimate of model evidence and is easy to implement. The approach is illustrated in a small synthetic modeling study.

A Model for Investigating Predictive Validity at Highly Selective Institutions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gross, Alan L.; And Others

A statistical model for investigating predictive validity at highly selective institutions is described. When the selection ratio is small, one must typically deal with a data set containing relatively large amounts of missing data on both criterion and predictor variables. Standard statistical approaches are based on the strong assumption that…

Elucidating spatially explicit behavioral landscapes in the Willow Flycatcher

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakian, Amanda V.; Sullivan, Kimberly A.; Paxton, Eben H.

2012-01-01

Animal resource selection is a complex, hierarchical decision-making process, yet resource selection studies often focus on the presence and absence of an animal rather than the animal's behavior at resource use locations. In this study, we investigate foraging and vocalization resource selection in a population of Willow Flycatchers, Empidonax traillii adastus, using Bayesian spatial generalized linear models. These models produce “behavioral landscapes” in which space use and resource selection is linked through behavior. Radio telemetry locations were collected from 35 adult Willow Flycatchers (n = 14 males, n = 13 females, and n = 8 unknown sex) over the 2003 and 2004 breeding seasons at Fish Creek, Utah. Results from the 2-stage modeling approach showed that habitat type, perch position, and distance from the arithmetic mean of the home range (in males) or nest site (in females) were important factors influencing foraging and vocalization resource selection. Parameter estimates from the individual-level models indicated high intraspecific variation in the use of the various habitat types and perch heights for foraging and vocalization. On the population level, Willow Flycatchers selected riparian habitat over other habitat types for vocalizing but used multiple habitat types for foraging including mountain shrub, young riparian, and upland forest. Mapping of observed and predicted foraging and vocalization resource selection indicated that the behavior often occurred in disparate areas of the home range. This suggests that multiple core areas may exist in the home ranges of individual flycatchers, and demonstrates that the behavioral landscape modeling approach can be applied to identify spatially and behaviorally distinct core areas. The behavioral landscape approach is applicable to a wide range of animal taxa and can be used to improve our understanding of the spatial context of behavior and resource selection.

Selective Planning of the First Year Experience in Higher Education: A Sweden-Australia Comparative Study of Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christie, Michael; Penn-Edwards, Sorrel; Donnison, Sharn; Greenaway, Ruth

2018-01-01

Literature on the support of the First Year Experience (FYE) in institutions of Higher Education provides a range of modelled approaches. However, we argue that institutions still need to selectively plan which approach/es and attendant strategies are best suited to their particular contexts and institutional policy and practice frameworks and how…

Personalized Offline and Pseudo-Online BCI Models to Detect Pedaling Intent

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Ugarte, Marisol; Iáñez, Eduardo; Ortíz, Mario; Azorín, Jose M.

2017-01-01

The aim of this work was to design a personalized BCI model to detect pedaling intention through EEG signals. The approach sought to select the best among many possible BCI models for each subject. The choice was between different processing windows, feature extraction algorithms and electrode configurations. Moreover, data was analyzed offline and pseudo-online (in a way suitable for real-time applications), with a preference for the latter case. A process for selecting the best BCI model was described in detail. Results for the pseudo-online processing with the best BCI model of each subject were on average 76.7% of true positive rate, 4.94 false positives per minute and 55.1% of accuracy. The personalized BCI model approach was also found to be significantly advantageous when compared to the typical approach of using a fixed feature extraction algorithm and electrode configuration. The resulting approach could be used to more robustly interface with lower limb exoskeletons in the context of the rehabilitation of stroke patients. PMID:28744212

Personalized Offline and Pseudo-Online BCI Models to Detect Pedaling Intent.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Ugarte, Marisol; Iáñez, Eduardo; Ortíz, Mario; Azorín, Jose M

2017-01-01

The aim of this work was to design a personalized BCI model to detect pedaling intention through EEG signals. The approach sought to select the best among many possible BCI models for each subject. The choice was between different processing windows, feature extraction algorithms and electrode configurations. Moreover, data was analyzed offline and pseudo-online (in a way suitable for real-time applications), with a preference for the latter case. A process for selecting the best BCI model was described in detail. Results for the pseudo-online processing with the best BCI model of each subject were on average 76.7% of true positive rate, 4.94 false positives per minute and 55.1% of accuracy. The personalized BCI model approach was also found to be significantly advantageous when compared to the typical approach of using a fixed feature extraction algorithm and electrode configuration. The resulting approach could be used to more robustly interface with lower limb exoskeletons in the context of the rehabilitation of stroke patients.

Microarray-based cancer prediction using soft computing approach.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaosheng; Gotoh, Osamu

2009-05-26

One of the difficulties in using gene expression profiles to predict cancer is how to effectively select a few informative genes to construct accurate prediction models from thousands or ten thousands of genes. We screen highly discriminative genes and gene pairs to create simple prediction models involved in single genes or gene pairs on the basis of soft computing approach and rough set theory. Accurate cancerous prediction is obtained when we apply the simple prediction models for four cancerous gene expression datasets: CNS tumor, colon tumor, lung cancer and DLBCL. Some genes closely correlated with the pathogenesis of specific or general cancers are identified. In contrast with other models, our models are simple, effective and robust. Meanwhile, our models are interpretable for they are based on decision rules. Our results demonstrate that very simple models may perform well on cancerous molecular prediction and important gene markers of cancer can be detected if the gene selection approach is chosen reasonably.

Three Tier Unified Process Model for Requirement Negotiations and Stakeholder Collaborations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niazi, Muhammad Ashraf Khan; Abbas, Muhammad; Shahzad, Muhammad

2012-11-01

This research paper is focused towards carrying out a pragmatic qualitative analysis of various models and approaches of requirements negotiations (a sub process of requirements management plan which is an output of scope managementís collect requirements process) and studies stakeholder collaborations methodologies (i.e. from within communication management knowledge area). Experiential analysis encompass two tiers; first tier refers to the weighted scoring model while second tier focuses on development of SWOT matrices on the basis of findings of weighted scoring model for selecting an appropriate requirements negotiation model. Finally the results are simulated with the help of statistical pie charts. On the basis of simulated results of prevalent models and approaches of negotiations, a unified approach for requirements negotiations and stakeholder collaborations is proposed where the collaboration methodologies are embeded into selected requirements negotiation model as internal parameters of the proposed process alongside some external required parameters like MBTI, opportunity analysis etc.

A time domain frequency-selective multivariate Granger causality approach.

PubMed

Leistritz, Lutz; Witte, Herbert

2016-08-01

The investigation of effective connectivity is one of the major topics in computational neuroscience to understand the interaction between spatially distributed neuronal units of the brain. Thus, a wide variety of methods has been developed during the last decades to investigate functional and effective connectivity in multivariate systems. Their spectrum ranges from model-based to model-free approaches with a clear separation into time and frequency range methods. We present in this simulation study a novel time domain approach based on Granger's principle of predictability, which allows frequency-selective considerations of directed interactions. It is based on a comparison of prediction errors of multivariate autoregressive models fitted to systematically modified time series. These modifications are based on signal decompositions, which enable a targeted cancellation of specific signal components with specific spectral properties. Depending on the embedded signal decomposition method, a frequency-selective or data-driven signal-adaptive Granger Causality Index may be derived.

Inferring Fitness Effects from Time-Resolved Sequence Data with a Delay-Deterministic Model

PubMed Central

Nené, Nuno R.; Dunham, Alistair S.; Illingworth, Christopher J. R.

2018-01-01

A common challenge arising from the observation of an evolutionary system over time is to infer the magnitude of selection acting upon a specific genetic variant, or variants, within the population. The inference of selection may be confounded by the effects of genetic drift in a system, leading to the development of inference procedures to account for these effects. However, recent work has suggested that deterministic models of evolution may be effective in capturing the effects of selection even under complex models of demography, suggesting the more general application of deterministic approaches to inference. Responding to this literature, we here note a case in which a deterministic model of evolution may give highly misleading inferences, resulting from the nondeterministic properties of mutation in a finite population. We propose an alternative approach that acts to correct for this error, and which we denote the delay-deterministic model. Applying our model to a simple evolutionary system, we demonstrate its performance in quantifying the extent of selection acting within that system. We further consider the application of our model to sequence data from an evolutionary experiment. We outline scenarios in which our model may produce improved results for the inference of selection, noting that such situations can be easily identified via the use of a regular deterministic model. PMID:29500183

A Bayesian framework for adaptive selection, calibration, and validation of coarse-grained models of atomistic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, Kathryn; Oden, J. Tinsley; Faghihi, Danial

2015-08-01

A general adaptive modeling algorithm for selection and validation of coarse-grained models of atomistic systems is presented. A Bayesian framework is developed to address uncertainties in parameters, data, and model selection. Algorithms for computing output sensitivities to parameter variances, model evidence and posterior model plausibilities for given data, and for computing what are referred to as Occam Categories in reference to a rough measure of model simplicity, make up components of the overall approach. Computational results are provided for representative applications.

Markowitz portfolio optimization model employing fuzzy measure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramli, Suhailywati; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah

2017-04-01

Markowitz in 1952 introduced the mean-variance methodology for the portfolio selection problems. His pioneering research has shaped the portfolio risk-return model and become one of the most important research fields in modern finance. This paper extends the classical Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio selection model applying the fuzzy measure to determine the risk and return. In this paper, we apply the original mean-variance model as a benchmark, fuzzy mean-variance model with fuzzy return and the model with return are modeled by specific types of fuzzy number for comparison. The model with fuzzy approach gives better performance as compared to the mean-variance approach. The numerical examples are included to illustrate these models by employing Malaysian share market data.

Nodal failure index approach to groundwater remediation design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, J.; Reeves, H.W.; Dowding, C.H.

2008-01-01

Computer simulations often are used to design and to optimize groundwater remediation systems. We present a new computationally efficient approach that calculates the reliability of remedial design at every location in a model domain with a single simulation. The estimated reliability and other model information are used to select a best remedial option for given site conditions, conceptual model, and available data. To evaluate design performance, we introduce the nodal failure index (NFI) to determine the number of nodal locations at which the probability of success is below the design requirement. The strength of the NFI approach is that selected areas of interest can be specified for analysis and the best remedial design determined for this target region. An example application of the NFI approach using a hypothetical model shows how the spatial distribution of reliability can be used for a decision support system in groundwater remediation design. ?? 2008 ASCE.

Exploring the Impact of Students' Learning Approach on Collaborative Group Modeling of Blood Circulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Shinyoung; Kang, Eunhee; Kim, Heui-Baik

2015-01-01

This study aimed to explore the effect on group dynamics of statements associated with deep learning approaches (DLA) and their contribution to cognitive collaboration and model development during group modeling of blood circulation. A group was selected for an in-depth analysis of collaborative group modeling. This group constructed a model in a…

Treatment Selection in Depression.

PubMed

Cohen, Zachary D; DeRubeis, Robert J

2018-05-07

Mental health researchers and clinicians have long sought answers to the question "What works for whom?" The goal of precision medicine is to provide evidence-based answers to this question. Treatment selection in depression aims to help each individual receive the treatment, among the available options, that is most likely to lead to a positive outcome for them. Although patient variables that are predictive of response to treatment have been identified, this knowledge has not yet translated into real-world treatment recommendations. The Personalized Advantage Index (PAI) and related approaches combine information obtained prior to the initiation of treatment into multivariable prediction models that can generate individualized predictions to help clinicians and patients select the right treatment. With increasing availability of advanced statistical modeling approaches, as well as novel predictive variables and big data, treatment selection models promise to contribute to improved outcomes in depression.

A semiparametric graphical modelling approach for large-scale equity selection.

PubMed

Liu, Han; Mulvey, John; Zhao, Tianqi

2016-01-01

We propose a new stock selection strategy that exploits rebalancing returns and improves portfolio performance. To effectively harvest rebalancing gains, we apply ideas from elliptical-copula graphical modelling and stability inference to select stocks that are as independent as possible. The proposed elliptical-copula graphical model has a latent Gaussian representation; its structure can be effectively inferred using the regularized rank-based estimators. The resulting algorithm is computationally efficient and scales to large data-sets. To show the efficacy of the proposed method, we apply it to conduct equity selection based on a 16-year health care stock data-set and a large 34-year stock data-set. Empirical tests show that the proposed method is superior to alternative strategies including a principal component analysis-based approach and the classical Markowitz strategy based on the traditional buy-and-hold assumption.

Empirical Performance Model-Driven Data Layout Optimization and Library Call Selection for Tensor Contraction Expressions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Qingda; Gao, Xiaoyang; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram

Empirical optimizers like ATLAS have been very effective in optimizing computational kernels in libraries. The best choice of parameters such as tile size and degree of loop unrolling is determined by executing different versions of the computation. In contrast, optimizing compilers use a model-driven approach to program transformation. While the model-driven approach of optimizing compilers is generally orders of magnitude faster than ATLAS-like library generators, its effectiveness can be limited by the accuracy of the performance models used. In this paper, we describe an approach where a class of computations is modeled in terms of constituent operations that are empiricallymore » measured, thereby allowing modeling of the overall execution time. The performance model with empirically determined cost components is used to perform data layout optimization together with the selection of library calls and layout transformations in the context of the Tensor Contraction Engine, a compiler for a high-level domain-specific language for expressing computational models in quantum chemistry. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through experimental measurements on representative computations from quantum chemistry.« less

Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Mcdermid, Sonali P.

2017-01-01

We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

Evaluation of variable selection methods for random forests and omics data sets.

PubMed

Degenhardt, Frauke; Seifert, Stephan; Szymczak, Silke

2017-10-16

Machine learning methods and in particular random forests are promising approaches for prediction based on high dimensional omics data sets. They provide variable importance measures to rank predictors according to their predictive power. If building a prediction model is the main goal of a study, often a minimal set of variables with good prediction performance is selected. However, if the objective is the identification of involved variables to find active networks and pathways, approaches that aim to select all relevant variables should be preferred. We evaluated several variable selection procedures based on simulated data as well as publicly available experimental methylation and gene expression data. Our comparison included the Boruta algorithm, the Vita method, recurrent relative variable importance, a permutation approach and its parametric variant (Altmann) as well as recursive feature elimination (RFE). In our simulation studies, Boruta was the most powerful approach, followed closely by the Vita method. Both approaches demonstrated similar stability in variable selection, while Vita was the most robust approach under a pure null model without any predictor variables related to the outcome. In the analysis of the different experimental data sets, Vita demonstrated slightly better stability in variable selection and was less computationally intensive than Boruta.In conclusion, we recommend the Boruta and Vita approaches for the analysis of high-dimensional data sets. Vita is considerably faster than Boruta and thus more suitable for large data sets, but only Boruta can also be applied in low-dimensional settings. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Dense mesh sampling for video-based facial animation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peszor, Damian; Wojciechowska, Marzena

2016-06-01

The paper describes an approach for selection of feature points on three-dimensional, triangle mesh obtained using various techniques from several video footages. This approach has a dual purpose. First, it allows to minimize the data stored for the purpose of facial animation, so that instead of storing position of each vertex in each frame, one could store only a small subset of vertices for each frame and calculate positions of others based on the subset. Second purpose is to select feature points that could be used for anthropometry-based retargeting of recorded mimicry to another model, with sampling density beyond that which can be achieved using marker-based performance capture techniques. Developed approach was successfully tested on artificial models, models constructed using structured light scanner, and models constructed from video footages using stereophotogrammetry.

Experiential Approach to Teaching and Learning at Suffolk University's College of Business Administration and Its Relationship to Selected Learning Theories.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sutherland, Lee William

The use of an experiential approach to teaching and learning by an urban business college is examined. Two texts, one in personnel and the other in small business management, were used as typical models. The relationship of the experiential approach and selected learning theories (Skinner, Gestalt, Rogers, and Knowles) was also analyzed. It is…

Bayesian Factor Analysis as a Variable Selection Problem: Alternative Priors and Consequences

PubMed Central

Lu, Zhao-Hua; Chow, Sy-Miin; Loken, Eric

2016-01-01

Factor analysis is a popular statistical technique for multivariate data analysis. Developments in the structural equation modeling framework have enabled the use of hybrid confirmatory/exploratory approaches in which factor loading structures can be explored relatively flexibly within a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) framework. Recently, a Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) approach (Muthén & Asparouhov, 2012) has been proposed as a way to explore the presence of cross-loadings in CFA models. We show that the issue of determining factor loading patterns may be formulated as a Bayesian variable selection problem in which Muthén and Asparouhov’s approach can be regarded as a BSEM approach with ridge regression prior (BSEM-RP). We propose another Bayesian approach, denoted herein as the Bayesian structural equation modeling with spike and slab prior (BSEM-SSP), which serves as a one-stage alternative to the BSEM-RP. We review the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and compare their empirical performance relative to two modification indices-based approaches and exploratory factor analysis with target rotation. A teacher stress scale data set (Byrne, 2012; Pettegrew & Wolf, 1982) is used to demonstrate our approach. PMID:27314566

A Latent Class Approach to Fitting the Weighted Euclidean Model, CLASCAL.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winsberg, Suzanne; De Soete, Geert

1993-01-01

A weighted Euclidean distance model is proposed that incorporates a latent class approach (CLASCAL). The contribution to the distance function between two stimuli is per dimension weighted identically by all subjects in the same latent class. A model selection strategy is proposed and illustrated. (SLD)

Adaptive convex combination approach for the identification of improper quaternion processes.

PubMed

Ujang, Bukhari Che; Jahanchahi, Cyrus; Took, Clive Cheong; Mandic, Danilo P

2014-01-01

Data-adaptive optimal modeling and identification of real-world vector sensor data is provided by combining the fractional tap-length (FT) approach with model order selection in the quaternion domain. To account rigorously for the generality of such processes, both second-order circular (proper) and noncircular (improper), the proposed approach in this paper combines the FT length optimization with both the strictly linear quaternion least mean square (QLMS) and widely linear QLMS (WL-QLMS). A collaborative approach based on QLMS and WL-QLMS is shown to both identify the type of processes (proper or improper) and to track their optimal parameters in real time. Analysis shows that monitoring the evolution of the convex mixing parameter within the collaborative approach allows us to track the improperness in real time. Further insight into the properties of those algorithms is provided by establishing a relationship between the steady-state error and optimal model order. The approach is supported by simulations on model order selection and identification of both strictly linear and widely linear quaternion-valued systems, such as those routinely used in renewable energy (wind) and human-centered computing (biomechanics).

Input variable selection and calibration data selection for storm water quality regression models.

PubMed

Sun, Siao; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

2013-01-01

Storm water quality models are useful tools in storm water management. Interest has been growing in analyzing existing data for developing models for urban storm water quality evaluations. It is important to select appropriate model inputs when many candidate explanatory variables are available. Model calibration and verification are essential steps in any storm water quality modeling. This study investigates input variable selection and calibration data selection in storm water quality regression models. The two selection problems are mutually interacted. A procedure is developed in order to fulfil the two selection tasks in order. The procedure firstly selects model input variables using a cross validation method. An appropriate number of variables are identified as model inputs to ensure that a model is neither overfitted nor underfitted. Based on the model input selection results, calibration data selection is studied. Uncertainty of model performances due to calibration data selection is investigated with a random selection method. An approach using the cluster method is applied in order to enhance model calibration practice based on the principle of selecting representative data for calibration. The comparison between results from the cluster selection method and random selection shows that the former can significantly improve performances of calibrated models. It is found that the information content in calibration data is important in addition to the size of calibration data.

What is the difference between comprehensive and selective primary health care? Evidence from a five-year longitudinal realist case study in South Australia.

PubMed

Baum, Fran; Freeman, Toby; Lawless, Angela; Labonte, Ronald; Sanders, David

2017-04-28

Since the WHO's Alma Ata Declaration on Primary Health Care (PHC) there has been debate about the advisability of adopting comprehensive or selective PHC. Proponents of the latter argue that a more selective approach will enable interim gains while proponents of a comprehensive approach argue that it is needed to address the underlying causes of ill health and improve health outcomes sustainably. This research is based on four case studies of government-funded and run PHC services in Adelaide, South Australia. Program logic models were constructed from interviews and workshops. The initial model represented relatively comprehensive service provision in 2010. Subsequent interviews in 2013 permitted the construction of a selective PHC program logic model following a series of restructuring service changes. Comparison of the PHC service program logic models before and after restructuring illustrates the changes to the operating context, underlying mechanisms, service qualities, activities, activity outcomes and anticipated community health outcomes. The PHC services moved from focusing on a range of community, group and individual clinical activities to a focus on the management of people with chronic disease. Under the more comprehensive model, activities were along a continuum of promotive, preventive, rehabilitative and curative. Under the selective model, the focus moved to rehabilitative and curative with very little other activities. The study demonstrates the difference between selective and comprehensive approaches to PHC in a rich country setting and is useful in informing debates on PHC especially in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Validation of Western North America Models based on finite-frequency and ray theory imaging methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larmat, Carene; Maceira, Monica; Porritt, Robert W.

2015-02-02

We validate seismic models developed for western North America with a focus on effect of imaging methods on data fit. We use the DNA09 models for which our collaborators provide models built with both the body-­wave FF approach and the RT approach, when the data selection, processing and reference models are the same.

Modelling approaches for pipe inclination effect on deposition limit velocity of settling slurry flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matoušek, Václav; Kesely, Mikoláš; Vlasák, Pavel

2018-06-01

The deposition velocity is an important operation parameter in hydraulic transport of solid particles in pipelines. It represents flow velocity at which transported particles start to settle out at the bottom of the pipe and are no longer transported. A number of predictive models has been developed to determine this threshold velocity for slurry flows of different solids fractions (fractions of different grain size and density). Most of the models consider flow in a horizontal pipe only, modelling approaches for inclined flows are extremely scarce due partially to a lack of experimental information about the effect of pipe inclination on the slurry flow pattern and behaviour. We survey different approaches to modelling of particle deposition in flowing slurry and discuss mechanisms on which deposition-limit models are based. Furthermore, we analyse possibilities to incorporate the effect of flow inclination into the predictive models and select the most appropriate ones based on their ability to modify the modelled deposition mechanisms to conditions associated with the flow inclination. A usefulness of the selected modelling approaches and their modifications are demonstrated by comparing model predictions with experimental results for inclined slurry flows from our own laboratory and from the literature.

Development of LACIE CCEA-1 weather/wheat yield models. [regression analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strommen, N. D.; Sakamoto, C. M.; Leduc, S. K.; Umberger, D. E. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

The advantages and disadvantages of the casual (phenological, dynamic, physiological), statistical regression, and analog approaches to modeling for grain yield are examined. Given LACIE's primary goal of estimating wheat production for the large areas of eight major wheat-growing regions, the statistical regression approach of correlating historical yield and climate data offered the Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment the greatest potential return within the constraints of time and data sources. The basic equation for the first generation wheat-yield model is given. Topics discussed include truncation, trend variable, selection of weather variables, episodic events, strata selection, operational data flow, weighting, and model results.

Optimizing Experimental Design for Comparing Models of Brain Function

PubMed Central

Daunizeau, Jean; Preuschoff, Kerstin; Friston, Karl; Stephan, Klaas

2011-01-01

This article presents the first attempt to formalize the optimization of experimental design with the aim of comparing models of brain function based on neuroimaging data. We demonstrate our approach in the context of Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM), which relates experimental manipulations to observed network dynamics (via hidden neuronal states) and provides an inference framework for selecting among candidate models. Here, we show how to optimize the sensitivity of model selection by choosing among experimental designs according to their respective model selection accuracy. Using Bayesian decision theory, we (i) derive the Laplace-Chernoff risk for model selection, (ii) disclose its relationship with classical design optimality criteria and (iii) assess its sensitivity to basic modelling assumptions. We then evaluate the approach when identifying brain networks using DCM. Monte-Carlo simulations and empirical analyses of fMRI data from a simple bimanual motor task in humans serve to demonstrate the relationship between network identification and the optimal experimental design. For example, we show that deciding whether there is a feedback connection requires shorter epoch durations, relative to asking whether there is experimentally induced change in a connection that is known to be present. Finally, we discuss limitations and potential extensions of this work. PMID:22125485

A pilot modeling technique for handling-qualities research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1980-01-01

A brief survey of the more dominant analysis techniques used in closed-loop handling-qualities research is presented. These techniques are shown to rely on so-called classical and modern analytical models of the human pilot which have their foundation in the analysis and design principles of feedback control. The optimal control model of the human pilot is discussed in some detail and a novel approach to the a priori selection of pertinent model parameters is discussed. Frequency domain and tracking performance data from 10 pilot-in-the-loop simulation experiments involving 3 different tasks are used to demonstrate the parameter selection technique. Finally, the utility of this modeling approach in handling-qualities research is discussed.

A new surrogate modeling technique combining Kriging and polynomial chaos expansions – Application to uncertainty analysis in computational dosimetry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kersaudy, Pierric, E-mail: pierric.kersaudy@orange.com; Whist Lab, 38 avenue du Général Leclerc, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux; ESYCOM, Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée, 5 boulevard Descartes, 77700 Marne-la-Vallée

2015-04-01

In numerical dosimetry, the recent advances in high performance computing led to a strong reduction of the required computational time to assess the specific absorption rate (SAR) characterizing the human exposure to electromagnetic waves. However, this procedure remains time-consuming and a single simulation can request several hours. As a consequence, the influence of uncertain input parameters on the SAR cannot be analyzed using crude Monte Carlo simulation. The solution presented here to perform such an analysis is surrogate modeling. This paper proposes a novel approach to build such a surrogate model from a design of experiments. Considering a sparse representationmore » of the polynomial chaos expansions using least-angle regression as a selection algorithm to retain the most influential polynomials, this paper proposes to use the selected polynomials as regression functions for the universal Kriging model. The leave-one-out cross validation is used to select the optimal number of polynomials in the deterministic part of the Kriging model. The proposed approach, called LARS-Kriging-PC modeling, is applied to three benchmark examples and then to a full-scale metamodeling problem involving the exposure of a numerical fetus model to a femtocell device. The performances of the LARS-Kriging-PC are compared to an ordinary Kriging model and to a classical sparse polynomial chaos expansion. The LARS-Kriging-PC appears to have better performances than the two other approaches. A significant accuracy improvement is observed compared to the ordinary Kriging or to the sparse polynomial chaos depending on the studied case. This approach seems to be an optimal solution between the two other classical approaches. A global sensitivity analysis is finally performed on the LARS-Kriging-PC model of the fetus exposure problem.« less

Integrated modeling approach using SELECT and SWAT models to simulate source loading and in-stream conditions of fecal indicator bacteria.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranatunga, T.

2016-12-01

Modeling of fate and transport of fecal bacteria in a watershed is generally a processed based approach that considers releases from manure, point sources, and septic systems. Overland transport with water and sediments, infiltration into soils, transport in the vadose zone and groundwater, die-off and growth processes, and in-stream transport are considered as the other major processes in bacteria simulation. This presentation will discuss a simulation of fecal indicator bacteria (E.coli) source loading and in-stream conditions of a non-tidal watershed (Cedar Bayou Watershed) in South Central Texas using two models; Spatially Explicit Load Enrichment Calculation Tool (SELECT) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Furthermore, it will discuss a probable approach of bacteria source load reduction in order to meet the water quality standards in the streams. The selected watershed is listed as having levels of fecal indicator bacteria that posed a risk for contact recreation and wading by the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The SELECT modeling approach was used in estimating the bacteria source loading from land categories. Major bacteria sources considered were, failing septic systems, discharges from wastewater treatment facilities, excreta from livestock (Cattle, Horses, Sheep and Goat), excreta from Wildlife (Feral Hogs, and Deer), Pet waste (mainly from Dogs), and runoff from urban surfaces. The estimated source loads were input to the SWAT model in order to simulate the transport through the land and in-stream conditions. The calibrated SWAT model was then used to estimate the indicator bacteria in-stream concentrations for future years based on H-GAC's regional land use, population and household projections (up to 2040). Based on the in-stream reductions required to meet the water quality standards, the corresponding required source load reductions were estimated.

A multicriteria decision making approach based on fuzzy theory and credibility mechanism for logistics center location selection.

PubMed

Wang, Bowen; Xiong, Haitao; Jiang, Chengrui

2014-01-01

As a hot topic in supply chain management, fuzzy method has been widely used in logistics center location selection to improve the reliability and suitability of the logistics center location selection with respect to the impacts of both qualitative and quantitative factors. However, it does not consider the consistency and the historical assessments accuracy of experts in predecisions. So this paper proposes a multicriteria decision making model based on credibility of decision makers by introducing priority of consistency and historical assessments accuracy mechanism into fuzzy multicriteria decision making approach. In this way, only decision makers who pass the credibility check are qualified to perform the further assessment. Finally, a practical example is analyzed to illustrate how to use the model. The result shows that the fuzzy multicriteria decision making model based on credibility mechanism can improve the reliability and suitability of site selection for the logistics center.

B-spline parameterization of the dielectric function and information criteria: the craft of non-overfitting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Likhachev, Dmitriy V.

2017-06-01

Johs and Hale developed the Kramers-Kronig consistent B-spline formulation for the dielectric function modeling in spectroscopic ellipsometry data analysis. In this article we use popular Akaike, corrected Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC, AICc and BIC, respectively) to determine an optimal number of knots for B-spline model. These criteria allow finding a compromise between under- and overfitting of experimental data since they penalize for increasing number of knots and select representation which achieves the best fit with minimal number of knots. Proposed approach provides objective and practical guidance, as opposite to empirically driven or "gut feeling" decisions, for selecting the right number of knots for B-spline models in spectroscopic ellipsometry. AIC, AICc and BIC selection criteria work remarkably well as we demonstrated in several real-data applications. This approach formalizes selection of the optimal knot number and may be useful in practical perspective of spectroscopic ellipsometry data analysis.

A semiparametric graphical modelling approach for large-scale equity selection

PubMed Central

Liu, Han; Mulvey, John; Zhao, Tianqi

2016-01-01

We propose a new stock selection strategy that exploits rebalancing returns and improves portfolio performance. To effectively harvest rebalancing gains, we apply ideas from elliptical-copula graphical modelling and stability inference to select stocks that are as independent as possible. The proposed elliptical-copula graphical model has a latent Gaussian representation; its structure can be effectively inferred using the regularized rank-based estimators. The resulting algorithm is computationally efficient and scales to large data-sets. To show the efficacy of the proposed method, we apply it to conduct equity selection based on a 16-year health care stock data-set and a large 34-year stock data-set. Empirical tests show that the proposed method is superior to alternative strategies including a principal component analysis-based approach and the classical Markowitz strategy based on the traditional buy-and-hold assumption. PMID:28316507

A Multicriteria Decision Making Approach Based on Fuzzy Theory and Credibility Mechanism for Logistics Center Location Selection

PubMed Central

Wang, Bowen; Jiang, Chengrui

2014-01-01

As a hot topic in supply chain management, fuzzy method has been widely used in logistics center location selection to improve the reliability and suitability of the logistics center location selection with respect to the impacts of both qualitative and quantitative factors. However, it does not consider the consistency and the historical assessments accuracy of experts in predecisions. So this paper proposes a multicriteria decision making model based on credibility of decision makers by introducing priority of consistency and historical assessments accuracy mechanism into fuzzy multicriteria decision making approach. In this way, only decision makers who pass the credibility check are qualified to perform the further assessment. Finally, a practical example is analyzed to illustrate how to use the model. The result shows that the fuzzy multicriteria decision making model based on credibility mechanism can improve the reliability and suitability of site selection for the logistics center. PMID:25215319

Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts.

PubMed

Tanner, Evan P; Papeş, Monica; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Davis, Craig A

2017-01-01

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species' distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species' distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel's quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species' distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables.

Inferring Fitness Effects from Time-Resolved Sequence Data with a Delay-Deterministic Model.

PubMed

Nené, Nuno R; Dunham, Alistair S; Illingworth, Christopher J R

2018-05-01

A common challenge arising from the observation of an evolutionary system over time is to infer the magnitude of selection acting upon a specific genetic variant, or variants, within the population. The inference of selection may be confounded by the effects of genetic drift in a system, leading to the development of inference procedures to account for these effects. However, recent work has suggested that deterministic models of evolution may be effective in capturing the effects of selection even under complex models of demography, suggesting the more general application of deterministic approaches to inference. Responding to this literature, we here note a case in which a deterministic model of evolution may give highly misleading inferences, resulting from the nondeterministic properties of mutation in a finite population. We propose an alternative approach that acts to correct for this error, and which we denote the delay-deterministic model. Applying our model to a simple evolutionary system, we demonstrate its performance in quantifying the extent of selection acting within that system. We further consider the application of our model to sequence data from an evolutionary experiment. We outline scenarios in which our model may produce improved results for the inference of selection, noting that such situations can be easily identified via the use of a regular deterministic model. Copyright © 2018 Nené et al.

Novel harmonic regularization approach for variable selection in Cox's proportional hazards model.

PubMed

Chu, Ge-Jin; Liang, Yong; Wang, Jia-Xuan

2014-01-01

Variable selection is an important issue in regression and a number of variable selection methods have been proposed involving nonconvex penalty functions. In this paper, we investigate a novel harmonic regularization method, which can approximate nonconvex Lq  (1/2 < q < 1) regularizations, to select key risk factors in the Cox's proportional hazards model using microarray gene expression data. The harmonic regularization method can be efficiently solved using our proposed direct path seeking approach, which can produce solutions that closely approximate those for the convex loss function and the nonconvex regularization. Simulation results based on the artificial datasets and four real microarray gene expression datasets, such as real diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DCBCL), the lung cancer, and the AML datasets, show that the harmonic regularization method can be more accurate for variable selection than existing Lasso series methods.

Improving data analysis in herpetology: Using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) to assess the strength of biological hypotheses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mazerolle, M.J.

2006-01-01

In ecology, researchers frequently use observational studies to explain a given pattern, such as the number of individuals in a habitat patch, with a large number of explanatory (i.e., independent) variables. To elucidate such relationships, ecologists have long relied on hypothesis testing to include or exclude variables in regression models, although the conclusions often depend on the approach used (e.g., forward, backward, stepwise selection). Though better tools have surfaced in the mid 1970's, they are still underutilized in certain fields, particularly in herpetology. This is the case of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) which is remarkably superior in model selection (i.e., variable selection) than hypothesis-based approaches. It is simple to compute and easy to understand, but more importantly, for a given data set, it provides a measure of the strength of evidence for each model that represents a plausible biological hypothesis relative to the entire set of models considered. Using this approach, one can then compute a weighted average of the estimate and standard error for any given variable of interest across all the models considered. This procedure, termed model-averaging or multimodel inference, yields precise and robust estimates. In this paper, I illustrate the use of the AIC in model selection and inference, as well as the interpretation of results analysed in this framework with two real herpetological data sets. The AIC and measures derived from it is should be routinely adopted by herpetologists. ?? Koninklijke Brill NV 2006.

Vibration and acoustic frequency spectra for industrial process modeling using selective fusion multi-condition samples and multi-source features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jian; Qiao, Junfei; Wu, ZhiWei; Chai, Tianyou; Zhang, Jian; Yu, Wen

2018-01-01

Frequency spectral data of mechanical vibration and acoustic signals relate to difficult-to-measure production quality and quantity parameters of complex industrial processes. A selective ensemble (SEN) algorithm can be used to build a soft sensor model of these process parameters by fusing valued information selectively from different perspectives. However, a combination of several optimized ensemble sub-models with SEN cannot guarantee the best prediction model. In this study, we use several techniques to construct mechanical vibration and acoustic frequency spectra of a data-driven industrial process parameter model based on selective fusion multi-condition samples and multi-source features. Multi-layer SEN (MLSEN) strategy is used to simulate the domain expert cognitive process. Genetic algorithm and kernel partial least squares are used to construct the inside-layer SEN sub-model based on each mechanical vibration and acoustic frequency spectral feature subset. Branch-and-bound and adaptive weighted fusion algorithms are integrated to select and combine outputs of the inside-layer SEN sub-models. Then, the outside-layer SEN is constructed. Thus, "sub-sampling training examples"-based and "manipulating input features"-based ensemble construction methods are integrated, thereby realizing the selective information fusion process based on multi-condition history samples and multi-source input features. This novel approach is applied to a laboratory-scale ball mill grinding process. A comparison with other methods indicates that the proposed MLSEN approach effectively models mechanical vibration and acoustic signals.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

Feature Selection Methods for Zero-Shot Learning of Neural Activity.

PubMed

Caceres, Carlos A; Roos, Matthew J; Rupp, Kyle M; Milsap, Griffin; Crone, Nathan E; Wolmetz, Michael E; Ratto, Christopher R

2017-01-01

Dimensionality poses a serious challenge when making predictions from human neuroimaging data. Across imaging modalities, large pools of potential neural features (e.g., responses from particular voxels, electrodes, and temporal windows) have to be related to typically limited sets of stimuli and samples. In recent years, zero-shot prediction models have been introduced for mapping between neural signals and semantic attributes, which allows for classification of stimulus classes not explicitly included in the training set. While choices about feature selection can have a substantial impact when closed-set accuracy, open-set robustness, and runtime are competing design objectives, no systematic study of feature selection for these models has been reported. Instead, a relatively straightforward feature stability approach has been adopted and successfully applied across models and imaging modalities. To characterize the tradeoffs in feature selection for zero-shot learning, we compared correlation-based stability to several other feature selection techniques on comparable data sets from two distinct imaging modalities: functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Electrocorticography. While most of the feature selection methods resulted in similar zero-shot prediction accuracies and spatial/spectral patterns of selected features, there was one exception; A novel feature/attribute correlation approach was able to achieve those accuracies with far fewer features, suggesting the potential for simpler prediction models that yield high zero-shot classification accuracy.

Estimation of selection intensity under overdominance by Bayesian methods.

PubMed

Buzbas, Erkan Ozge; Joyce, Paul; Abdo, Zaid

2009-01-01

A balanced pattern in the allele frequencies of polymorphic loci is a potential sign of selection, particularly of overdominance. Although this type of selection is of some interest in population genetics, there exists no likelihood based approaches specifically tailored to make inference on selection intensity. To fill this gap, we present Bayesian methods to estimate selection intensity under k-allele models with overdominance. Our model allows for an arbitrary number of loci and alleles within a locus. The neutral and selected variability within each locus are modeled with corresponding k-allele models. To estimate the posterior distribution of the mean selection intensity in a multilocus region, a hierarchical setup between loci is used. The methods are demonstrated with data at the Human Leukocyte Antigen loci from world-wide populations.

A computational approach to compare regression modelling strategies in prediction research.

PubMed

Pajouheshnia, Romin; Pestman, Wiebe R; Teerenstra, Steven; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2016-08-25

It is often unclear which approach to fit, assess and adjust a model will yield the most accurate prediction model. We present an extension of an approach for comparing modelling strategies in linear regression to the setting of logistic regression and demonstrate its application in clinical prediction research. A framework for comparing logistic regression modelling strategies by their likelihoods was formulated using a wrapper approach. Five different strategies for modelling, including simple shrinkage methods, were compared in four empirical data sets to illustrate the concept of a priori strategy comparison. Simulations were performed in both randomly generated data and empirical data to investigate the influence of data characteristics on strategy performance. We applied the comparison framework in a case study setting. Optimal strategies were selected based on the results of a priori comparisons in a clinical data set and the performance of models built according to each strategy was assessed using the Brier score and calibration plots. The performance of modelling strategies was highly dependent on the characteristics of the development data in both linear and logistic regression settings. A priori comparisons in four empirical data sets found that no strategy consistently outperformed the others. The percentage of times that a model adjustment strategy outperformed a logistic model ranged from 3.9 to 94.9 %, depending on the strategy and data set. However, in our case study setting the a priori selection of optimal methods did not result in detectable improvement in model performance when assessed in an external data set. The performance of prediction modelling strategies is a data-dependent process and can be highly variable between data sets within the same clinical domain. A priori strategy comparison can be used to determine an optimal logistic regression modelling strategy for a given data set before selecting a final modelling approach.

Estimating animal resource selection from telemetry data using point process models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Devin S.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Kuhn, Carey E.

2013-01-01

To demonstrate the analysis of telemetry data with the point process approach, we analysed a data set of telemetry locations from northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) in the Pribilof Islands, Alaska. Both a space–time and an aggregated space-only model were fitted. At the individual level, the space–time analysis showed little selection relative to the habitat covariates. However, at the study area level, the space-only model showed strong selection relative to the covariates.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farrell, Kathryn, E-mail: kfarrell@ices.utexas.edu; Oden, J. Tinsley, E-mail: oden@ices.utexas.edu; Faghihi, Danial, E-mail: danial@ices.utexas.edu

A general adaptive modeling algorithm for selection and validation of coarse-grained models of atomistic systems is presented. A Bayesian framework is developed to address uncertainties in parameters, data, and model selection. Algorithms for computing output sensitivities to parameter variances, model evidence and posterior model plausibilities for given data, and for computing what are referred to as Occam Categories in reference to a rough measure of model simplicity, make up components of the overall approach. Computational results are provided for representative applications.

Application of SELECT and SWAT models to simulate source load, fate, and transport of fecal bacteria in watersheds.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranatunga, T.

2017-12-01

Modeling of fate and transport of fecal bacteria in a watershed is a processed based approach that considers releases from manure, point sources, and septic systems. Overland transport with water and sediments, infiltration into soils, transport in the vadose zone and groundwater, die-off and growth processes, and in-stream transport are considered as the other major processes in bacteria simulation. This presentation will discuss a simulation of fecal indicator bacteria source loading and in-stream conditions of a non-tidal watershed (Cedar Bayou Watershed) in South Central Texas using two models; Spatially Explicit Load Enrichment Calculation Tool (SELECT) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Furthermore, it will discuss a probable approach of bacteria source load reduction in order to meet the water quality standards in the streams. The selected watershed is listed as having levels of fecal indicator bacteria that posed a risk for contact recreation and wading by the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The SELECT modeling approach was used in estimating the bacteria source loading from land categories. Major bacteria sources considered were, failing septic systems, discharges from wastewater treatment facilities, excreta from livestock (Cattle, Horses, Sheep and Goat), excreta from Wildlife (Feral Hogs, and Deer), Pet waste (mainly from Dogs), and runoff from urban surfaces. The estimated source loads from SELECT model were input to the SWAT model, and simulate the bacteria transport through the land and in-stream. The calibrated SWAT model was then used to estimate the indicator bacteria in-stream concentrations for future years based on regional land use, population and household forecast (up to 2040). Based on the reductions required to meet the water quality standards in-stream, the corresponding required source load reductions were estimated.

Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (<40%) between the two methods Despite these differences in variable sets (expert versus statistical), models had high performance metrics (>0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable selection is a useful first step, especially when there is a need to model a large number of species or expert knowledge of the species is limited. Expert input can then be used to refine models that seem unrealistic or for species that experts believe are particularly sensitive to change. It also emphasizes the importance of using multiple models to reduce uncertainty and improve map outputs for conservation planning. Where outputs overlap or show the same direction of change there is greater certainty in the predictions. Areas of disagreement can be used for learning by asking why the models do not agree, and may highlight areas where additional on-the-ground data collection could improve the models.

Toward better public health reporting using existing off the shelf approaches: A comparison of alternative cancer detection approaches using plaintext medical data and non-dictionary based feature selection.

PubMed

Kasthurirathne, Suranga N; Dixon, Brian E; Gichoya, Judy; Xu, Huiping; Xia, Yuni; Mamlin, Burke; Grannis, Shaun J

2016-04-01

Increased adoption of electronic health records has resulted in increased availability of free text clinical data for secondary use. A variety of approaches to obtain actionable information from unstructured free text data exist. These approaches are resource intensive, inherently complex and rely on structured clinical data and dictionary-based approaches. We sought to evaluate the potential to obtain actionable information from free text pathology reports using routinely available tools and approaches that do not depend on dictionary-based approaches. We obtained pathology reports from a large health information exchange and evaluated the capacity to detect cancer cases from these reports using 3 non-dictionary feature selection approaches, 4 feature subset sizes, and 5 clinical decision models: simple logistic regression, naïve bayes, k-nearest neighbor, random forest, and J48 decision tree. The performance of each decision model was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Decision models parameterized using automated, informed, and manual feature selection approaches yielded similar results. Furthermore, non-dictionary classification approaches identified cancer cases present in free text reports with evaluation measures approaching and exceeding 80-90% for most metrics. Our methods are feasible and practical approaches for extracting substantial information value from free text medical data, and the results suggest that these methods can perform on par, if not better, than existing dictionary-based approaches. Given that public health agencies are often under-resourced and lack the technical capacity for more complex methodologies, these results represent potentially significant value to the public health field. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence maximization based on partial network structure information: A comparative analysis on seed selection heuristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkol, Şirag; Yücel, Gönenç

In this study, the problem of seed selection is investigated. This problem is mainly treated as an optimization problem, which is proved to be NP-hard. There are several heuristic approaches in the literature which mostly use algorithmic heuristics. These approaches mainly focus on the trade-off between computational complexity and accuracy. Although the accuracy of algorithmic heuristics are high, they also have high computational complexity. Furthermore, in the literature, it is generally assumed that complete information on the structure and features of a network is available, which is not the case in most of the times. For the study, a simulation model is constructed, which is capable of creating networks, performing seed selection heuristics, and simulating diffusion models. Novel metric-based seed selection heuristics that rely only on partial information are proposed and tested using the simulation model. These heuristics use local information available from nodes in the synthetically created networks. The performances of heuristics are comparatively analyzed on three different network types. The results clearly show that the performance of a heuristic depends on the structure of a network. A heuristic to be used should be selected after investigating the properties of the network at hand. More importantly, the approach of partial information provided promising results. In certain cases, selection heuristics that rely only on partial network information perform very close to similar heuristics that require complete network data.

A comparative study of clonal selection algorithm for effluent removal forecasting in septic sludge treatment plant.

PubMed

Chun, Ting Sie; Malek, M A; Ismail, Amelia Ritahani

2015-01-01

The development of effluent removal prediction is crucial in providing a planning tool necessary for the future development and the construction of a septic sludge treatment plant (SSTP), especially in the developing countries. In order to investigate the expected functionality of the required standard, the prediction of the effluent quality, namely biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand and total suspended solid of an SSTP was modelled using an artificial intelligence approach. In this paper, we adopt the clonal selection algorithm (CSA) to set up a prediction model, with a well-established method - namely the least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM) as a baseline model. The test results of the case study showed that the prediction of the CSA-based SSTP model worked well and provided model performance as satisfactory as the LS-SVM model. The CSA approach shows that fewer control and training parameters are required for model simulation as compared with the LS-SVM approach. The ability of a CSA approach in resolving limited data samples, non-linear sample function and multidimensional pattern recognition makes it a powerful tool in modelling the prediction of effluent removals in an SSTP.

Remaining lifetime modeling using State-of-Health estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beganovic, Nejra; Söffker, Dirk

2017-08-01

Technical systems and system's components undergo gradual degradation over time. Continuous degradation occurred in system is reflected in decreased system's reliability and unavoidably lead to a system failure. Therefore, continuous evaluation of State-of-Health (SoH) is inevitable to provide at least predefined lifetime of the system defined by manufacturer, or even better, to extend the lifetime given by manufacturer. However, precondition for lifetime extension is accurate estimation of SoH as well as the estimation and prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL). For this purpose, lifetime models describing the relation between system/component degradation and consumed lifetime have to be established. In this contribution modeling and selection of suitable lifetime models from database based on current SoH conditions are discussed. Main contribution of this paper is the development of new modeling strategies capable to describe complex relations between measurable system variables, related system degradation, and RUL. Two approaches with accompanying advantages and disadvantages are introduced and compared. Both approaches are capable to model stochastic aging processes of a system by simultaneous adaption of RUL models to current SoH. The first approach requires a priori knowledge about aging processes in the system and accurate estimation of SoH. An estimation of SoH here is conditioned by tracking actual accumulated damage into the system, so that particular model parameters are defined according to a priori known assumptions about system's aging. Prediction accuracy in this case is highly dependent on accurate estimation of SoH but includes high number of degrees of freedom. The second approach in this contribution does not require a priori knowledge about system's aging as particular model parameters are defined in accordance to multi-objective optimization procedure. Prediction accuracy of this model does not highly depend on estimated SoH. This model has lower degrees of freedom. Both approaches rely on previously developed lifetime models each of them corresponding to predefined SoH. Concerning first approach, model selection is aided by state-machine-based algorithm. In the second approach, model selection conditioned by tracking an exceedance of predefined thresholds is concerned. The approach is applied to data generated from tribological systems. By calculating Root Squared Error (RSE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Absolute Error (ABE) the accuracy of proposed models/approaches is discussed along with related advantages and disadvantages. Verification of the approach is done using cross-fold validation, exchanging training and test data. It can be stated that the newly introduced approach based on data (denoted as data-based or data-driven) parametric models can be easily established providing detailed information about remaining useful/consumed lifetime valid for systems with constant load but stochastically occurred damage.

Integrating modelling and phenotyping approaches to identify and screen complex traits - Illustration for transpiration efficiency in cereals.

PubMed

Chenu, K; van Oosterom, E J; McLean, G; Deifel, K S; Fletcher, A; Geetika, G; Tirfessa, A; Mace, E S; Jordan, D R; Sulman, R; Hammer, G L

2018-02-21

Following advances in genetics, genomics, and phenotyping, trait selection in breeding is limited by our ability to understand interactions within the plants and with their environments, and to target traits of most relevance for the target population of environments. We propose an integrated approach that combines insights from crop modelling, physiology, genetics, and breeding to identify traits valuable for yield gain in the target population of environments, develop relevant high-throughput phenotyping platforms, and identify genetic controls and their values in production environments. This paper uses transpiration efficiency (biomass produced per unit of water used) as an example of a complex trait of interest to illustrate how the approach can guide modelling, phenotyping, and selection in a breeding program. We believe that this approach, by integrating insights from diverse disciplines, can increase the resource use efficiency of breeding programs for improving yield gains in target populations of environments.

Book Selection, Collection Development, and Bounded Rationality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwartz, Charles A.

1989-01-01

Reviews previously proposed schemes of classical rationality in book selection, describes new approaches to rational choice behavior, and presents a model of book selection based on bounded rationality in a garbage can decision process. The role of tacit knowledge and symbolic content in the selection process are also discussed. (102 references)…

Detecting Bias in Selection for Higher Education: Three Different Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennet-Cohen, Tamar; Turvall, Elliot; Oren, Carmel

2014-01-01

This study examined selection bias in Israeli university admissions with respect to test language and gender, using three approaches for the detection of such bias: Cleary's model of differential prediction, boundary conditions for differential prediction and difference between "d's" (the Constant Ratio Model). The university admissions…

A Graphic Overlay Method for Selection of Osteotomy Site in Chronic Radial Head Dislocation: An Evaluation of 3D-printed Bone Models.

PubMed

Kim, Hui Taek; Ahn, Tae Young; Jang, Jae Hoon; Kim, Kang Hee; Lee, Sung Jae; Jung, Duk Young

2017-03-01

Three-dimensional (3D) computed tomography imaging is now being used to generate 3D models for planning orthopaedic surgery, but the process remains time consuming and expensive. For chronic radial head dislocation, we have designed a graphic overlay approach that employs selected 3D computer images and widely available software to simplify the process of osteotomy site selection. We studied 5 patients (2 traumatic and 3 congenital) with unilateral radial head dislocation. These patients were treated with surgery based on traditional radiographs, but they also had full sets of 3D CT imaging done both before and after their surgery: these 3D CT images form the basis for this study. From the 3D CT images, each patient generated 3 sets of 3D-printed bone models: 2 copies of the preoperative condition, and 1 copy of the postoperative condition. One set of the preoperative models was then actually osteotomized and fixed in the manner suggested by our graphic technique. Arcs of rotation of the 3 sets of 3D-printed bone models were then compared. Arcs of rotation of the 3 groups of bone models were significantly different, with the models osteotomized accordingly to our graphic technique having the widest arcs. For chronic radial head dislocation, our graphic overlay approach simplifies the selection of the osteotomy site(s). Three-dimensional-printed bone models suggest that this approach could improve range of motion of the forearm in actual surgical practice. Level IV-therapeutic study.

The Causal Meaning of Genomic Predictors and How It Affects Construction and Comparison of Genome-Enabled Selection Models

PubMed Central

Valente, Bruno D.; Morota, Gota; Peñagaricano, Francisco; Gianola, Daniel; Weigel, Kent; Rosa, Guilherme J. M.

2015-01-01

The term “effect” in additive genetic effect suggests a causal meaning. However, inferences of such quantities for selection purposes are typically viewed and conducted as a prediction task. Predictive ability as tested by cross-validation is currently the most acceptable criterion for comparing models and evaluating new methodologies. Nevertheless, it does not directly indicate if predictors reflect causal effects. Such evaluations would require causal inference methods that are not typical in genomic prediction for selection. This suggests that the usual approach to infer genetic effects contradicts the label of the quantity inferred. Here we investigate if genomic predictors for selection should be treated as standard predictors or if they must reflect a causal effect to be useful, requiring causal inference methods. Conducting the analysis as a prediction or as a causal inference task affects, for example, how covariates of the regression model are chosen, which may heavily affect the magnitude of genomic predictors and therefore selection decisions. We demonstrate that selection requires learning causal genetic effects. However, genomic predictors from some models might capture noncausal signal, providing good predictive ability but poorly representing true genetic effects. Simulated examples are used to show that aiming for predictive ability may lead to poor modeling decisions, while causal inference approaches may guide the construction of regression models that better infer the target genetic effect even when they underperform in cross-validation tests. In conclusion, genomic selection models should be constructed to aim primarily for identifiability of causal genetic effects, not for predictive ability. PMID:25908318

Model Selection for Monitoring CO2 Plume during Sequestration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2014-12-31

The model selection method developed as part of this project mainly includes four steps: (1) assessing the connectivity/dynamic characteristics of a large prior ensemble of models, (2) model clustering using multidimensional scaling coupled with k-mean clustering, (3) model selection using the Bayes' rule in the reduced model space, (4) model expansion using iterative resampling of the posterior models. The fourth step expresses one of the advantages of the method: it provides a built-in means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictions made with the selected models. In our application to plume monitoring, by expanding the posterior space of models, the finalmore » ensemble of representations of geological model can be used to assess the uncertainty in predicting the future displacement of the CO2 plume. The software implementation of this approach is attached here.« less

Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

Treesearch

D. Todd Jones-Farrand; Todd M. Fearer; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Frank R. Thompson; Mark D. Nelson; John M. Tirpak

2011-01-01

Selection of a modeling approach is an important step in the conservation planning process, but little guidance is available. We compared two statistical and three theoretical habitat modeling approaches representing those currently being used for avian conservation planning at landscape and regional scales: hierarchical spatial count (HSC), classification and...

Novel Harmonic Regularization Approach for Variable Selection in Cox's Proportional Hazards Model

PubMed Central

Chu, Ge-Jin; Liang, Yong; Wang, Jia-Xuan

2014-01-01

Variable selection is an important issue in regression and a number of variable selection methods have been proposed involving nonconvex penalty functions. In this paper, we investigate a novel harmonic regularization method, which can approximate nonconvex Lq  (1/2 < q < 1) regularizations, to select key risk factors in the Cox's proportional hazards model using microarray gene expression data. The harmonic regularization method can be efficiently solved using our proposed direct path seeking approach, which can produce solutions that closely approximate those for the convex loss function and the nonconvex regularization. Simulation results based on the artificial datasets and four real microarray gene expression datasets, such as real diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DCBCL), the lung cancer, and the AML datasets, show that the harmonic regularization method can be more accurate for variable selection than existing Lasso series methods. PMID:25506389

Supervisory Options for Instructional Leaders in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fritz, Carrie; Miller, Greg

2003-01-01

The principal purpose of this article was to identify supervisory approaches available to instructional leaders in education. Selected supervisory approaches served as the basis for creating the Supervisory Options for Instructional Leaders (SOIL) Model. Instructional leaders in a variety of educational settings could use this model. The SOIL…

Large-scale model quality assessment for improving protein tertiary structure prediction.

PubMed

Cao, Renzhi; Bhattacharya, Debswapna; Adhikari, Badri; Li, Jilong; Cheng, Jianlin

2015-06-15

Sampling structural models and ranking them are the two major challenges of protein structure prediction. Traditional protein structure prediction methods generally use one or a few quality assessment (QA) methods to select the best-predicted models, which cannot consistently select relatively better models and rank a large number of models well. Here, we develop a novel large-scale model QA method in conjunction with model clustering to rank and select protein structural models. It unprecedentedly applied 14 model QA methods to generate consensus model rankings, followed by model refinement based on model combination (i.e. averaging). Our experiment demonstrates that the large-scale model QA approach is more consistent and robust in selecting models of better quality than any individual QA method. Our method was blindly tested during the 11th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP11) as MULTICOM group. It was officially ranked third out of all 143 human and server predictors according to the total scores of the first models predicted for 78 CASP11 protein domains and second according to the total scores of the best of the five models predicted for these domains. MULTICOM's outstanding performance in the extremely competitive 2014 CASP11 experiment proves that our large-scale QA approach together with model clustering is a promising solution to one of the two major problems in protein structure modeling. The web server is available at: http://sysbio.rnet.missouri.edu/multicom_cluster/human/. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Did we choose the best one? A new site selection approach based on exposure and uptake potential for waste incineration.

PubMed

Demirarslan, K Onur; Korucu, M Kemal; Karademir, Aykan

2016-08-01

Ecological problems arising after the construction and operation of a waste incineration plant generally originate from incorrect decisions made during the selection of the location of the plant. The main objective of this study is to investigate how the selection method for the location of a new municipal waste incineration plant can be improved by using a dispersion modelling approach supported by geographical information systems and multi-criteria decision analysis. Considering this aim, the appropriateness of the current location of an existent plant was assessed by applying a pollution dispersion model. Using this procedure, the site ranking for a total of 90 candidate locations and the site of the existing incinerator were determined by a new location selection practice and the current place of the plant was evaluated by ANOVA and Tukey tests. This ranking, made without the use of modelling approaches, was re-evaluated based on the modelling of various variables, including the concentration of pollutants, population and population density, demography, temporality of meteorological data, pollutant type, risk formation type by CALPUFF and re-ranking the results. The findings clearly indicate the impropriety of the location of the current plant, as the pollution distribution model showed that its location was the fourth-worst choice among 91 possibilities. It was concluded that the location selection procedures for waste incinerators should benefit from the improvements obtained by the articulation of pollution dispersion studies combined with the population density data to obtain the most suitable location. © The Author(s) 2016.

Parameter Estimation and Model Selection for Indoor Environments Based on Sparse Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dehbi, Y.; Loch-Dehbi, S.; Plümer, L.

2017-09-01

This paper presents a novel method for the parameter estimation and model selection for the reconstruction of indoor environments based on sparse observations. While most approaches for the reconstruction of indoor models rely on dense observations, we predict scenes of the interior with high accuracy in the absence of indoor measurements. We use a model-based top-down approach and incorporate strong but profound prior knowledge. The latter includes probability density functions for model parameters and sparse observations such as room areas and the building footprint. The floorplan model is characterized by linear and bi-linear relations with discrete and continuous parameters. We focus on the stochastic estimation of model parameters based on a topological model derived by combinatorial reasoning in a first step. A Gauss-Markov model is applied for estimation and simulation of the model parameters. Symmetries are represented and exploited during the estimation process. Background knowledge as well as observations are incorporated in a maximum likelihood estimation and model selection is performed with AIC/BIC. The likelihood is also used for the detection and correction of potential errors in the topological model. Estimation results are presented and discussed.

A review of active learning approaches to experimental design for uncovering biological networks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Various types of biological knowledge describe networks of interactions among elementary entities. For example, transcriptional regulatory networks consist of interactions among proteins and genes. Current knowledge about the exact structure of such networks is highly incomplete, and laboratory experiments that manipulate the entities involved are conducted to test hypotheses about these networks. In recent years, various automated approaches to experiment selection have been proposed. Many of these approaches can be characterized as active machine learning algorithms. Active learning is an iterative process in which a model is learned from data, hypotheses are generated from the model to propose informative experiments, and the experiments yield new data that is used to update the model. This review describes the various models, experiment selection strategies, validation techniques, and successful applications described in the literature; highlights common themes and notable distinctions among methods; and identifies likely directions of future research and open problems in the area. PMID:28570593

Orbital transfer vehicle concept definition and system analysis study, 1985. Volume 3: System and program trades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, James H.; Mohrman, Gordon W.; Callan, Daniel R.

1986-01-01

The key system and program trade studies performed to arrive at a preferred Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV) system concept and evolutionary approach to the acquisition of the requisite capabilites is documented. These efforts were expanded to encompass a Space Transportation Architecture Study (STAS) mission model and recommended unmanned cargo vehicle. The most important factors affecting the results presented are the mission model requirements and selection criteria. The reason for conducting the OTV concept definition and system analyses study is to select a concept and acquisition approach that meets a delivery requirement reflected by the mission model.

A Simulation Modeling Approach Method Focused on the Refrigerated Warehouses Using Design of Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, G. S.

2017-09-01

For performance optimization of Refrigerated Warehouses, design parameters are selected based on the physical parameters such as number of equipment and aisles, speeds of forklift for ease of modification. This paper provides a comprehensive framework approach for the system design of Refrigerated Warehouses. We propose a modeling approach which aims at the simulation optimization so as to meet required design specifications using the Design of Experiment (DOE) and analyze a simulation model using integrated aspect-oriented modeling approach (i-AOMA). As a result, this suggested method can evaluate the performance of a variety of Refrigerated Warehouses operations.

Calibration of Complex Subsurface Reaction Models Using a Surrogate-Model Approach

EPA Science Inventory

Application of model assessment techniques to complex subsurface reaction models involves numerous difficulties, including non-trivial model selection, parameter non-uniqueness, and excessive computational burden. To overcome these difficulties, this study introduces SAMM (Simult...

Application of random effects to the study of resource selection by animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gillies, C.S.; Hebblewhite, M.; Nielsen, S.E.; Krawchuk, M.A.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Frair, J.L.; Saher, D.J.; Stevens, C.E.; Jerde, C.L.

2006-01-01

1. Resource selection estimated by logistic regression is used increasingly in studies to identify critical resources for animal populations and to predict species occurrence.2. Most frequently, individual animals are monitored and pooled to estimate population-level effects without regard to group or individual-level variation. Pooling assumes that both observations and their errors are independent, and resource selection is constant given individual variation in resource availability.3. Although researchers have identified ways to minimize autocorrelation, variation between individuals caused by differences in selection or available resources, including functional responses in resource selection, have not been well addressed.4. Here we review random-effects models and their application to resource selection modelling to overcome these common limitations. We present a simple case study of an analysis of resource selection by grizzly bears in the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains with and without random effects.5. Both categorical and continuous variables in the grizzly bear model differed in interpretation, both in statistical significance and coefficient sign, depending on how a random effect was included. We used a simulation approach to clarify the application of random effects under three common situations for telemetry studies: (a) discrepancies in sample sizes among individuals; (b) differences among individuals in selection where availability is constant; and (c) differences in availability with and without a functional response in resource selection.6. We found that random intercepts accounted for unbalanced sample designs, and models with random intercepts and coefficients improved model fit given the variation in selection among individuals and functional responses in selection. Our empirical example and simulations demonstrate how including random effects in resource selection models can aid interpretation and address difficult assumptions limiting their generality. This approach will allow researchers to appropriately estimate marginal (population) and conditional (individual) responses, and account for complex grouping, unbalanced sample designs and autocorrelation.

Application of random effects to the study of resource selection by animals.

PubMed

Gillies, Cameron S; Hebblewhite, Mark; Nielsen, Scott E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Aldridge, Cameron L; Frair, Jacqueline L; Saher, D Joanne; Stevens, Cameron E; Jerde, Christopher L

2006-07-01

1. Resource selection estimated by logistic regression is used increasingly in studies to identify critical resources for animal populations and to predict species occurrence. 2. Most frequently, individual animals are monitored and pooled to estimate population-level effects without regard to group or individual-level variation. Pooling assumes that both observations and their errors are independent, and resource selection is constant given individual variation in resource availability. 3. Although researchers have identified ways to minimize autocorrelation, variation between individuals caused by differences in selection or available resources, including functional responses in resource selection, have not been well addressed. 4. Here we review random-effects models and their application to resource selection modelling to overcome these common limitations. We present a simple case study of an analysis of resource selection by grizzly bears in the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains with and without random effects. 5. Both categorical and continuous variables in the grizzly bear model differed in interpretation, both in statistical significance and coefficient sign, depending on how a random effect was included. We used a simulation approach to clarify the application of random effects under three common situations for telemetry studies: (a) discrepancies in sample sizes among individuals; (b) differences among individuals in selection where availability is constant; and (c) differences in availability with and without a functional response in resource selection. 6. We found that random intercepts accounted for unbalanced sample designs, and models with random intercepts and coefficients improved model fit given the variation in selection among individuals and functional responses in selection. Our empirical example and simulations demonstrate how including random effects in resource selection models can aid interpretation and address difficult assumptions limiting their generality. This approach will allow researchers to appropriately estimate marginal (population) and conditional (individual) responses, and account for complex grouping, unbalanced sample designs and autocorrelation.

Effect of heating rate and kinetic model selection on activation energy of nonisothermal crystallization of amorphous felodipine.

PubMed

Chattoraj, Sayantan; Bhugra, Chandan; Li, Zheng Jane; Sun, Changquan Calvin

2014-12-01

The nonisothermal crystallization kinetics of amorphous materials is routinely analyzed by statistically fitting the crystallization data to kinetic models. In this work, we systematically evaluate how the model-dependent crystallization kinetics is impacted by variations in the heating rate and the selection of the kinetic model, two key factors that can lead to significant differences in the crystallization activation energy (Ea ) of an amorphous material. Using amorphous felodipine, we show that the Ea decreases with increase in the heating rate, irrespective of the kinetic model evaluated in this work. The model that best describes the crystallization phenomenon cannot be identified readily through the statistical fitting approach because several kinetic models yield comparable R(2) . Here, we propose an alternate paired model-fitting model-free (PMFMF) approach for identifying the most suitable kinetic model, where Ea obtained from model-dependent kinetics is compared with those obtained from model-free kinetics. The most suitable kinetic model is identified as the one that yields Ea values comparable with the model-free kinetics. Through this PMFMF approach, nucleation and growth is identified as the main mechanism that controls the crystallization kinetics of felodipine. Using this PMFMF approach, we further demonstrate that crystallization mechanism from amorphous phase varies with heating rate. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data.

PubMed

Jewett, Ethan M; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S

2016-11-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright-Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Mathematics Literacy on Problem Based Learning with Indonesian Realistic Mathematics Education Approach Assisted E-Learning Edmodo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wardono; Waluya, S. B.; Mariani, Scolastika; Candra D, S.

2016-02-01

This study aims to find out that there are differences in mathematical literacy ability in content Change and Relationship class VII Junior High School 19, Semarang by Problem Based Learning (PBL) model with an Indonesian Realistic Mathematics Education (called Pendidikan Matematika Realistik Indonesia or PMRI in Indonesia) approach assisted Elearning Edmodo, PBL with a PMRI approach, and expository; to know whether the group of students with learning PBL models with PMRI approach and assisted E-learning Edmodo can improve mathematics literacy; to know that the quality of learning PBL models with a PMRI approach assisted E-learning Edmodo has a good category; to describe the difficulties of students in working the problems of mathematical literacy ability oriented PISA. This research is a mixed methods study. The population was seventh grade students of Junior High School 19, Semarang Indonesia. Sample selection is done by random sampling so that the selected experimental class 1, class 2 and the control experiment. Data collected by the methods of documentation, tests and interviews. From the results of this study showed average mathematics literacy ability of students in the group PBL models with a PMRI approach assisted E-learning Edmodo better than average mathematics literacy ability of students in the group PBL models with a PMRI approach and better than average mathematics literacy ability of students in the expository models; Mathematics literacy ability in the class using the PBL model with a PMRI approach assisted E-learning Edmodo have increased and the improvement of mathematics literacy ability is higher than the improvement of mathematics literacy ability of class that uses the model of PBL learning with PMRI approach and is higher than the improvement of mathematics literacy ability of class that uses the expository models; The quality of learning using PBL models with a PMRI approach assisted E-learning Edmodo have very good category.

Sparse Group Penalized Integrative Analysis of Multiple Cancer Prognosis Datasets

PubMed Central

Liu, Jin; Huang, Jian; Xie, Yang; Ma, Shuangge

2014-01-01

SUMMARY In cancer research, high-throughput profiling studies have been extensively conducted, searching for markers associated with prognosis. Because of the “large d, small n” characteristic, results generated from the analysis of a single dataset can be unsatisfactory. Recent studies have shown that integrative analysis, which simultaneously analyzes multiple datasets, can be more effective than single-dataset analysis and classic meta-analysis. In most of existing integrative analysis, the homogeneity model has been assumed, which postulates that different datasets share the same set of markers. Several approaches have been designed to reinforce this assumption. In practice, different datasets may differ in terms of patient selection criteria, profiling techniques, and many other aspects. Such differences may make the homogeneity model too restricted. In this study, we assume the heterogeneity model, under which different datasets are allowed to have different sets of markers. With multiple cancer prognosis datasets, we adopt the AFT (accelerated failure time) model to describe survival. This model may have the lowest computational cost among popular semiparametric survival models. For marker selection, we adopt a sparse group MCP (minimax concave penalty) approach. This approach has an intuitive formulation and can be computed using an effective group coordinate descent algorithm. Simulation study shows that it outperforms the existing approaches under both the homogeneity and heterogeneity models. Data analysis further demonstrates the merit of heterogeneity model and proposed approach. PMID:23938111

A Social Neuroscientific Model of Vocational Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansen, Jo-Ida C.; Sullivan, Brandon A.; Luciana, Monica

2011-01-01

In this article, the separate literatures of a neurobiologically based approach system and vocational interests are reviewed and integrated into a social neuroscientific model of the processes underlying interests, based upon the idea of selective approach motivation. The authors propose that vocational interests describe the types of stimuli that…

Improving threading algorithms for remote homology modeling by combining fragment and template comparisons

PubMed Central

Zhou, Hongyi; Skolnick, Jeffrey

2010-01-01

In this work, we develop a method called FTCOM for assessing the global quality of protein structural models for targets of medium and hard difficulty (remote homology) produced by structure prediction approaches such as threading or ab initio structure prediction. FTCOM requires the Cα coordinates of full length models and assesses model quality based on fragment comparison and a score derived from comparison of the model to top threading templates. On a set of 361 medium/hard targets, FTCOM was applied to and assessed for its ability to improve upon the results from the SP3, SPARKS, PROSPECTOR_3, and PRO-SP3-TASSER threading algorithms. The average TM-score improves by 5%–10% for the first selected model by the new method over models obtained by the original selection procedure in the respective threading methods. Moreover the number of foldable targets (TM-score ≥0.4) increases from least 7.6% for SP3 to 54% for SPARKS. Thus, FTCOM is a promising approach to template selection. PMID:20455261

Bayesian model selection: Evidence estimation based on DREAM simulation and bridge sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, Elena; Schoups, Gerrit; Firmani, Giovanni; Vrugt, Jasper A.

2017-04-01

Bayesian inference has found widespread application in Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, providing an effective tool for prediction, data assimilation, parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis and hypothesis testing. Under multiple competing hypotheses, the Bayesian approach also provides an attractive alternative to traditional information criteria (e.g. AIC, BIC) for model selection. The key variable for Bayesian model selection is the evidence (or marginal likelihood) that is the normalizing constant in the denominator of Bayes theorem; while it is fundamental for model selection, the evidence is not required for Bayesian inference. It is computed for each hypothesis (model) by averaging the likelihood function over the prior parameter distribution, rather than maximizing it as by information criteria; the larger a model evidence the more support it receives among a collection of hypothesis as the simulated values assign relatively high probability density to the observed data. Hence, the evidence naturally acts as an Occam's razor, preferring simpler and more constrained models against the selection of over-fitted ones by information criteria that incorporate only the likelihood maximum. Since it is not particularly easy to estimate the evidence in practice, Bayesian model selection via the marginal likelihood has not yet found mainstream use. We illustrate here the properties of a new estimator of the Bayesian model evidence, which provides robust and unbiased estimates of the marginal likelihood; the method is coined Gaussian Mixture Importance Sampling (GMIS). GMIS uses multidimensional numerical integration of the posterior parameter distribution via bridge sampling (a generalization of importance sampling) of a mixture distribution fitted to samples of the posterior distribution derived from the DREAM algorithm (Vrugt et al., 2008; 2009). Some illustrative examples are presented to show the robustness and superiority of the GMIS estimator with respect to other commonly used approaches in the literature.

Feature Selection Methods for Zero-Shot Learning of Neural Activity

PubMed Central

Caceres, Carlos A.; Roos, Matthew J.; Rupp, Kyle M.; Milsap, Griffin; Crone, Nathan E.; Wolmetz, Michael E.; Ratto, Christopher R.

2017-01-01

Dimensionality poses a serious challenge when making predictions from human neuroimaging data. Across imaging modalities, large pools of potential neural features (e.g., responses from particular voxels, electrodes, and temporal windows) have to be related to typically limited sets of stimuli and samples. In recent years, zero-shot prediction models have been introduced for mapping between neural signals and semantic attributes, which allows for classification of stimulus classes not explicitly included in the training set. While choices about feature selection can have a substantial impact when closed-set accuracy, open-set robustness, and runtime are competing design objectives, no systematic study of feature selection for these models has been reported. Instead, a relatively straightforward feature stability approach has been adopted and successfully applied across models and imaging modalities. To characterize the tradeoffs in feature selection for zero-shot learning, we compared correlation-based stability to several other feature selection techniques on comparable data sets from two distinct imaging modalities: functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Electrocorticography. While most of the feature selection methods resulted in similar zero-shot prediction accuracies and spatial/spectral patterns of selected features, there was one exception; A novel feature/attribute correlation approach was able to achieve those accuracies with far fewer features, suggesting the potential for simpler prediction models that yield high zero-shot classification accuracy. PMID:28690513

Resource selection by an ectothermic predator in a dynamic thermal landscape

Treesearch

Andrew D. George; Grant M. Connette; Frank R. Thompson; John Faaborg

2017-01-01

Predicting the effects of global climate change on species interactions has remained difficult because there is a spatiotemporal mismatch between regional climate models and microclimates experienced by organisms. We evaluated resource selection in a predominant ectothermic predator using a modeling approach that permitted us to assess the importance of habitat...

What should be considered if you decide to build your own mathematical model for predicting the development of bacterial resistance? Recommendations based on a systematic review of the literature

PubMed Central

Arepeva, Maria; Kolbin, Alexey; Kurylev, Alexey; Balykina, Julia; Sidorenko, Sergey

2015-01-01

Acquired bacterial resistance is one of the causes of mortality and morbidity from infectious diseases. Mathematical modeling allows us to predict the spread of resistance and to some extent to control its dynamics. The purpose of this review was to examine existing mathematical models in order to understand the pros and cons of currently used approaches and to build our own model. During the analysis, seven articles on mathematical approaches to studying resistance that satisfied the inclusion/exclusion criteria were selected. All models were classified according to the approach used to study resistance in the presence of an antibiotic and were analyzed in terms of our research. Some models require modifications due to the specifics of the research. The plan for further work on model building is as follows: modify some models, according to our research, check all obtained models against our data, and select the optimal model or models with the best quality of prediction. After that we would be able to build a model for the development of resistance using the obtained results. PMID:25972847

Stochastic approaches for time series forecasting of boron: a case study of Western Turkey.

PubMed

Durdu, Omer Faruk

2010-10-01

In the present study, a seasonal and non-seasonal prediction of boron concentrations time series data for the period of 1996-2004 from Büyük Menderes river in western Turkey are addressed by means of linear stochastic models. The methodology presented here is to develop adequate linear stochastic models known as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) to predict boron content in the Büyük Menderes catchment. Initially, the Box-Whisker plots and Kendall's tau test are used to identify the trends during the study period. The measurements locations do not show significant overall trend in boron concentrations, though marginal increasing and decreasing trends are observed for certain periods at some locations. ARIMA modeling approach involves the following three steps: model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking. In the model identification step, considering the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) results of boron data series, different ARIMA models are identified. The model gives the minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC) is selected as the best-fit model. The parameter estimation step indicates that the estimated model parameters are significantly different from zero. The diagnostic check step is applied to the residuals of the selected ARIMA models and the results indicate that the residuals are independent, normally distributed, and homoscadastic. For the model validation purposes, the predicted results using the best ARIMA models are compared to the observed data. The predicted data show reasonably good agreement with the actual data. The comparison of the mean and variance of 3-year (2002-2004) observed data vs predicted data from the selected best models show that the boron model from ARIMA modeling approaches could be used in a safe manner since the predicted values from these models preserve the basic statistics of observed data in terms of mean. The ARIMA modeling approach is recommended for predicting boron concentration series of a river.

The genealogy of sequences containing multiple sites subject to strong selection in a subdivided population.

PubMed Central

Nordborg, Magnus; Innan, Hideki

2003-01-01

A stochastic model for the genealogy of a sample of recombining sequences containing one or more sites subject to selection in a subdivided population is described. Selection is incorporated by dividing the population into allelic classes and then conditioning on the past sizes of these classes. The past allele frequencies at the selected sites are thus treated as parameters rather than as random variables. The purpose of the model is not to investigate the dynamics of selection, but to investigate effects of linkage to the selected sites on the genealogy of the surrounding chromosomal region. This approach is useful for modeling strong selection, when it is natural to parameterize the past allele frequencies at the selected sites. Several models of strong balancing selection are used as examples, and the effects on the pattern of neutral polymorphism in the chromosomal region are discussed. We focus in particular on the statistical power to detect balancing selection when it is present. PMID:12663556

The genealogy of sequences containing multiple sites subject to strong selection in a subdivided population.

PubMed

Nordborg, Magnus; Innan, Hideki

2003-03-01

A stochastic model for the genealogy of a sample of recombining sequences containing one or more sites subject to selection in a subdivided population is described. Selection is incorporated by dividing the population into allelic classes and then conditioning on the past sizes of these classes. The past allele frequencies at the selected sites are thus treated as parameters rather than as random variables. The purpose of the model is not to investigate the dynamics of selection, but to investigate effects of linkage to the selected sites on the genealogy of the surrounding chromosomal region. This approach is useful for modeling strong selection, when it is natural to parameterize the past allele frequencies at the selected sites. Several models of strong balancing selection are used as examples, and the effects on the pattern of neutral polymorphism in the chromosomal region are discussed. We focus in particular on the statistical power to detect balancing selection when it is present.

A latent discriminative model-based approach for classification of imaginary motor tasks from EEG data.

PubMed

Saa, Jaime F Delgado; Çetin, Müjdat

2012-04-01

We consider the problem of classification of imaginary motor tasks from electroencephalography (EEG) data for brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) and propose a new approach based on hidden conditional random fields (HCRFs). HCRFs are discriminative graphical models that are attractive for this problem because they (1) exploit the temporal structure of EEG; (2) include latent variables that can be used to model different brain states in the signal; and (3) involve learned statistical models matched to the classification task, avoiding some of the limitations of generative models. Our approach involves spatial filtering of the EEG signals and estimation of power spectra based on autoregressive modeling of temporal segments of the EEG signals. Given this time-frequency representation, we select certain frequency bands that are known to be associated with execution of motor tasks. These selected features constitute the data that are fed to the HCRF, parameters of which are learned from training data. Inference algorithms on the HCRFs are used for the classification of motor tasks. We experimentally compare this approach to the best performing methods in BCI competition IV as well as a number of more recent methods and observe that our proposed method yields better classification accuracy.

QMEANclust: estimation of protein model quality by combining a composite scoring function with structural density information.

PubMed

Benkert, Pascal; Schwede, Torsten; Tosatto, Silvio Ce

2009-05-20

The selection of the most accurate protein model from a set of alternatives is a crucial step in protein structure prediction both in template-based and ab initio approaches. Scoring functions have been developed which can either return a quality estimate for a single model or derive a score from the information contained in the ensemble of models for a given sequence. Local structural features occurring more frequently in the ensemble have a greater probability of being correct. Within the context of the CASP experiment, these so called consensus methods have been shown to perform considerably better in selecting good candidate models, but tend to fail if the best models are far from the dominant structural cluster. In this paper we show that model selection can be improved if both approaches are combined by pre-filtering the models used during the calculation of the structural consensus. Our recently published QMEAN composite scoring function has been improved by including an all-atom interaction potential term. The preliminary model ranking based on the new QMEAN score is used to select a subset of reliable models against which the structural consensus score is calculated. This scoring function called QMEANclust achieves a correlation coefficient of predicted quality score and GDT_TS of 0.9 averaged over the 98 CASP7 targets and perform significantly better in selecting good models from the ensemble of server models than any other groups participating in the quality estimation category of CASP7. Both scoring functions are also benchmarked on the MOULDER test set consisting of 20 target proteins each with 300 alternatives models generated by MODELLER. QMEAN outperforms all other tested scoring functions operating on individual models, while the consensus method QMEANclust only works properly on decoy sets containing a certain fraction of near-native conformations. We also present a local version of QMEAN for the per-residue estimation of model quality (QMEANlocal) and compare it to a new local consensus-based approach. Improved model selection is obtained by using a composite scoring function operating on single models in order to enrich higher quality models which are subsequently used to calculate the structural consensus. The performance of consensus-based methods such as QMEANclust highly depends on the composition and quality of the model ensemble to be analysed. Therefore, performance estimates for consensus methods based on large meta-datasets (e.g. CASP) might overrate their applicability in more realistic modelling situations with smaller sets of models based on individual methods.

How Reliable is Bayesian Model Averaging Under Noisy Data? Statistical Assessment and Implications for Robust Model Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöniger, Anneli; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

2014-05-01

Bayesian model averaging ranks the predictive capabilities of alternative conceptual models based on Bayes' theorem. The individual models are weighted with their posterior probability to be the best one in the considered set of models. Finally, their predictions are combined into a robust weighted average and the predictive uncertainty can be quantified. This rigorous procedure does, however, not yet account for possible instabilities due to measurement noise in the calibration data set. This is a major drawback, since posterior model weights may suffer a lack of robustness related to the uncertainty in noisy data, which may compromise the reliability of model ranking. We present a new statistical concept to account for measurement noise as source of uncertainty for the weights in Bayesian model averaging. Our suggested upgrade reflects the limited information content of data for the purpose of model selection. It allows us to assess the significance of the determined posterior model weights, the confidence in model selection, and the accuracy of the quantified predictive uncertainty. Our approach rests on a brute-force Monte Carlo framework. We determine the robustness of model weights against measurement noise by repeatedly perturbing the observed data with random realizations of measurement error. Then, we analyze the induced variability in posterior model weights and introduce this "weighting variance" as an additional term into the overall prediction uncertainty analysis scheme. We further determine the theoretical upper limit in performance of the model set which is imposed by measurement noise. As an extension to the merely relative model ranking, this analysis provides a measure of absolute model performance. To finally decide, whether better data or longer time series are needed to ensure a robust basis for model selection, we resample the measurement time series and assess the convergence of model weights for increasing time series length. We illustrate our suggested approach with an application to model selection between different soil-plant models following up on a study by Wöhling et al. (2013). Results show that measurement noise compromises the reliability of model ranking and causes a significant amount of weighting uncertainty, if the calibration data time series is not long enough to compensate for its noisiness. This additional contribution to the overall predictive uncertainty is neglected without our approach. Thus, we strongly advertise to include our suggested upgrade in the Bayesian model averaging routine.

A D-vine copula-based model for repeated measurements extending linear mixed models with homogeneous correlation structure.

PubMed

Killiches, Matthias; Czado, Claudia

2018-03-22

We propose a model for unbalanced longitudinal data, where the univariate margins can be selected arbitrarily and the dependence structure is described with the help of a D-vine copula. We show that our approach is an extremely flexible extension of the widely used linear mixed model if the correlation is homogeneous over the considered individuals. As an alternative to joint maximum-likelihood a sequential estimation approach for the D-vine copula is provided and validated in a simulation study. The model can handle missing values without being forced to discard data. Since conditional distributions are known analytically, we easily make predictions for future events. For model selection, we adjust the Bayesian information criterion to our situation. In an application to heart surgery data our model performs clearly better than competing linear mixed models. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Populations, Natural Selection, and Applied Organizational Science.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKelvey, Bill; Aldrich, Howard

1983-01-01

Deficiencies in existing models in organizational science may be remedied by applying the population approach, with its concepts of taxonomy, classification, evolution, and population ecology; and natural selection theory, with its principles of variation, natural selection, heredity, and struggle for existence, to the idea of organizational forms…

Modelling land use change with generalized linear models--a multi-model analysis of change between 1860 and 2000 in Gallatin Valley, Montana.

PubMed

Aspinall, Richard

2004-08-01

This paper develops an approach to modelling land use change that links model selection and multi-model inference with empirical models and GIS. Land use change is frequently studied, and understanding gained, through a process of modelling that is an empirical analysis of documented changes in land cover or land use patterns. The approach here is based on analysis and comparison of multiple models of land use patterns using model selection and multi-model inference. The approach is illustrated with a case study of rural housing as it has developed for part of Gallatin County, Montana, USA. A GIS contains the location of rural housing on a yearly basis from 1860 to 2000. The database also documents a variety of environmental and socio-economic conditions. A general model of settlement development describes the evolution of drivers of land use change and their impacts in the region. This model is used to develop a series of different models reflecting drivers of change at different periods in the history of the study area. These period specific models represent a series of multiple working hypotheses describing (a) the effects of spatial variables as a representation of social, economic and environmental drivers of land use change, and (b) temporal changes in the effects of the spatial variables as the drivers of change evolve over time. Logistic regression is used to calibrate and interpret these models and the models are then compared and evaluated with model selection techniques. Results show that different models are 'best' for the different periods. The different models for different periods demonstrate that models are not invariant over time which presents challenges for validation and testing of empirical models. The research demonstrates (i) model selection as a mechanism for rating among many plausible models that describe land cover or land use patterns, (ii) inference from a set of models rather than from a single model, (iii) that models can be developed based on hypothesised relationships based on consideration of underlying and proximate causes of change, and (iv) that models are not invariant over time.

Linked population and economic models: some methodological issues in forecasting, analysis, and policy optimization.

PubMed

Madden, M; Batey Pwj

1983-05-01

Some problems associated with demographic-economic forecasting include finding models appropriate for a declining economy with unemployment, using a multiregional approach in an interregional model, finding a way to show differential consumption while endogenizing unemployment, and avoiding unemployment inconsistencies. The solution to these problems involves the construction of an activity-commodity framework, locating it within a group of forecasting models, and indicating possible ratios towards dynamization of the framework. The authors demonstrate the range of impact multipliers that can be derived from the framework and show how these multipliers relate to Leontief input-output multipliers. It is shown that desired population distribution may be obtained by selecting instruments from the economic sphere to produce, through the constraints vector of an activity-commodity framework, targets selected from demographic activities. The next step in this process, empirical exploitation, was carried out by the authors in the United Kingdom, linking an input-output model with a wide selection of demographic and demographic-economic variables. The generally tenuous control which government has over any variables in systems of this type, especially in market economies, makes application in the policy field of the optimization approach a partly conjectural exercise, although the analytic capacity of the approach can provide clear indications of policy directions.

Bridging the gap between marker-assisted and genomic selection of heading time and plant height in hybrid wheat.

PubMed

Zhao, Y; Mette, M F; Gowda, M; Longin, C F H; Reif, J C

2014-06-01

Based on data from field trials with a large collection of 135 elite winter wheat inbred lines and 1604 F1 hybrids derived from them, we compared the accuracy of prediction of marker-assisted selection and current genomic selection approaches for the model traits heading time and plant height in a cross-validation approach. For heading time, the high accuracy seen with marker-assisted selection severely dropped with genomic selection approaches RR-BLUP (ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction) and BayesCπ, whereas for plant height, accuracy was low with marker-assisted selection as well as RR-BLUP and BayesCπ. Differences in the linkage disequilibrium structure of the functional and single-nucleotide polymorphism markers relevant for the two traits were identified in a simulation study as a likely explanation for the different trends in accuracies of prediction. A new genomic selection approach, weighted best linear unbiased prediction (W-BLUP), designed to treat the effects of known functional markers more appropriately, proved to increase the accuracy of prediction for both traits and thus closes the gap between marker-assisted and genomic selection.

Bridging the gap between marker-assisted and genomic selection of heading time and plant height in hybrid wheat

PubMed Central

Zhao, Y; Mette, M F; Gowda, M; Longin, C F H; Reif, J C

2014-01-01

Based on data from field trials with a large collection of 135 elite winter wheat inbred lines and 1604 F1 hybrids derived from them, we compared the accuracy of prediction of marker-assisted selection and current genomic selection approaches for the model traits heading time and plant height in a cross-validation approach. For heading time, the high accuracy seen with marker-assisted selection severely dropped with genomic selection approaches RR-BLUP (ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction) and BayesCπ, whereas for plant height, accuracy was low with marker-assisted selection as well as RR-BLUP and BayesCπ. Differences in the linkage disequilibrium structure of the functional and single-nucleotide polymorphism markers relevant for the two traits were identified in a simulation study as a likely explanation for the different trends in accuracies of prediction. A new genomic selection approach, weighted best linear unbiased prediction (W-BLUP), designed to treat the effects of known functional markers more appropriately, proved to increase the accuracy of prediction for both traits and thus closes the gap between marker-assisted and genomic selection. PMID:24518889

Offline modeling for product quality prediction of mineral processing using modeling error PDF shaping and entropy minimization.

PubMed

Ding, Jinliang; Chai, Tianyou; Wang, Hong

2011-03-01

This paper presents a novel offline modeling for product quality prediction of mineral processing which consists of a number of unit processes in series. The prediction of the product quality of the whole mineral process (i.e., the mixed concentrate grade) plays an important role and the establishment of its predictive model is a key issue for the plantwide optimization. For this purpose, a hybrid modeling approach of the mixed concentrate grade prediction is proposed, which consists of a linear model and a nonlinear model. The least-squares support vector machine is adopted to establish the nonlinear model. The inputs of the predictive model are the performance indices of each unit process, while the output is the mixed concentrate grade. In this paper, the model parameter selection is transformed into the shape control of the probability density function (PDF) of the modeling error. In this context, both the PDF-control-based and minimum-entropy-based model parameter selection approaches are proposed. Indeed, this is the first time that the PDF shape control idea is used to deal with system modeling, where the key idea is to turn model parameters so that either the modeling error PDF is controlled to follow a target PDF or the modeling error entropy is minimized. The experimental results using the real plant data and the comparison of the two approaches are discussed. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

Comparing Families of Dynamic Causal Models

PubMed Central

Penny, Will D.; Stephan, Klaas E.; Daunizeau, Jean; Rosa, Maria J.; Friston, Karl J.; Schofield, Thomas M.; Leff, Alex P.

2010-01-01

Mathematical models of scientific data can be formally compared using Bayesian model evidence. Previous applications in the biological sciences have mainly focussed on model selection in which one first selects the model with the highest evidence and then makes inferences based on the parameters of that model. This “best model” approach is very useful but can become brittle if there are a large number of models to compare, and if different subjects use different models. To overcome this shortcoming we propose the combination of two further approaches: (i) family level inference and (ii) Bayesian model averaging within families. Family level inference removes uncertainty about aspects of model structure other than the characteristic of interest. For example: What are the inputs to the system? Is processing serial or parallel? Is it linear or nonlinear? Is it mediated by a single, crucial connection? We apply Bayesian model averaging within families to provide inferences about parameters that are independent of further assumptions about model structure. We illustrate the methods using Dynamic Causal Models of brain imaging data. PMID:20300649

Quantitative genetic models of sexual conflict based on interacting phenotypes.

PubMed

Moore, Allen J; Pizzari, Tommaso

2005-05-01

Evolutionary conflict arises between reproductive partners when alternative reproductive opportunities are available. Sexual conflict can generate sexually antagonistic selection, which mediates sexual selection and intersexual coevolution. However, despite intense interest, the evolutionary implications of sexual conflict remain unresolved. We propose a novel theoretical approach to study the evolution of sexually antagonistic phenotypes based on quantitative genetics and the measure of social selection arising from male-female interactions. We consider the phenotype of one sex as both a genetically influenced evolving trait as well as the (evolving) social environment in which the phenotype of the opposite sex evolves. Several important points emerge from our analysis, including the relationship between direct selection on one sex and indirect effects through selection on the opposite sex. We suggest that the proposed approach may be a valuable tool to complement other theoretical approaches currently used to study sexual conflict. Most importantly, our approach highlights areas where additional empirical data can help clarify the role of sexual conflict in the evolutionary process.

Integrating resource selection into spatial capture-recapture models for large carnivores

Treesearch

K. M. Proffitt; J. F. Goldberg; M. Hebblewhite; R. Russell; B. S. Jimenez; H. S. Robinson; Kristine Pilgrim; Michael Schwartz

2015-01-01

Wildlife managers need reliable methods to estimate large carnivore densities and population trends; yet large carnivores are elusive, difficult to detect, and occur at low densities making traditional approaches intractable. Recent advances in spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have provided new approaches for monitoring trends in wildlife abundance and...

Advances and Challenges in Genomic Selection for Disease Resistance.

PubMed

Poland, Jesse; Rutkoski, Jessica

2016-08-04

Breeding for disease resistance is a central focus of plant breeding programs, as any successful variety must have the complete package of high yield, disease resistance, agronomic performance, and end-use quality. With the need to accelerate the development of improved varieties, genomics-assisted breeding is becoming an important tool in breeding programs. With marker-assisted selection, there has been success in breeding for disease resistance; however, much of this work and research has focused on identifying, mapping, and selecting for major resistance genes that tend to be highly effective but vulnerable to breakdown with rapid changes in pathogen races. In contrast, breeding for minor-gene quantitative resistance tends to produce more durable varieties but is a more challenging breeding objective. As the genetic architecture of resistance shifts from single major R genes to a diffused architecture of many minor genes, the best approach for molecular breeding will shift from marker-assisted selection to genomic selection. Genomics-assisted breeding for quantitative resistance will therefore necessitate whole-genome prediction models and selection methodology as implemented for classical complex traits such as yield. Here, we examine multiple case studies testing whole-genome prediction models and genomic selection for disease resistance. In general, whole-genome models for disease resistance can produce prediction accuracy suitable for application in breeding. These models also largely outperform multiple linear regression as would be applied in marker-assisted selection. With the implementation of genomic selection for yield and other agronomic traits, whole-genome marker profiles will be available for the entire set of breeding lines, enabling genomic selection for disease at no additional direct cost. In this context, the scope of implementing genomics selection for disease resistance, and specifically for quantitative resistance and quarantined pathogens, becomes a tractable and powerful approach in breeding programs.

Solvability conditions for dendritic growth in the boundary-layer model with capillary anisotropy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Langer, J. S.; Hong, D. C.

1986-01-01

This paper is concerned primarily with the development of an analytic approach to the theory of steady-state velocity selection in the boundary-layer model of dendritic solidification. The two-dimensional version of this model with a fourfold crystalline anisotropy alpha in the surface tension is considered. By extending a WKB method introduced in an earlier paper, the alpha dependence of the selected growth rate is determined in the limit of small alpha; and this rate is studied for large alphas in the limit in which the dimensionless undercooling approaches unity. Portions of the paper are devoted to a reinterpretation of the mathematical structure of the solvability condition in problems of this kind.

Temporal BYY encoding, Markovian state spaces, and space dimension determination.

PubMed

Xu, Lei

2004-09-01

As a complementary to those temporal coding approaches of the current major stream, this paper aims at the Markovian state space temporal models from the perspective of the temporal Bayesian Ying-Yang (BYY) learning with both new insights and new results on not only the discrete state featured Hidden Markov model and extensions but also the continuous state featured linear state spaces and extensions, especially with a new learning mechanism that makes selection of the state number or the dimension of state space either automatically during adaptive learning or subsequently after learning via model selection criteria obtained from this mechanism. Experiments are demonstrated to show how the proposed approach works.

A Value-Added Approach to Selecting the Best Master of Business Administration (MBA) Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fisher, Dorothy M.; Kiang, Melody; Fisher, Steven A.

2007-01-01

Although numerous studies rank master of business administration (MBA) programs, prospective students' selection of the best MBA program is a formidable task. In this study, the authors used a linear-programming-based model called data envelopment analysis (DEA) to evaluate MBA programs. The DEA model connects costs to benefits to evaluate the…

An Associative Index Model for the Results List Based on Vannevar Bush's Selection Concept

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cole, Charles; Julien, Charles-Antoine; Leide, John E.

2010-01-01

Introduction: We define the results list problem in information search and suggest the "associative index model", an ad-hoc, user-derived indexing solution based on Vannevar Bush's description of an associative indexing approach for his memex machine. We further define what selection means in indexing terms with reference to Charles…

Accounting for animal movement in estimation of resource selection functions: sampling and data analysis.

PubMed

Forester, James D; Im, Hae Kyung; Rathouz, Paul J

2009-12-01

Patterns of resource selection by animal populations emerge as a result of the behavior of many individuals. Statistical models that describe these population-level patterns of habitat use can miss important interactions between individual animals and characteristics of their local environment; however, identifying these interactions is difficult. One approach to this problem is to incorporate models of individual movement into resource selection models. To do this, we propose a model for step selection functions (SSF) that is composed of a resource-independent movement kernel and a resource selection function (RSF). We show that standard case-control logistic regression may be used to fit the SSF; however, the sampling scheme used to generate control points (i.e., the definition of availability) must be accommodated. We used three sampling schemes to analyze simulated movement data and found that ignoring sampling and the resource-independent movement kernel yielded biased estimates of selection. The level of bias depended on the method used to generate control locations, the strength of selection, and the spatial scale of the resource map. Using empirical or parametric methods to sample control locations produced biased estimates under stronger selection; however, we show that the addition of a distance function to the analysis substantially reduced that bias. Assuming a uniform availability within a fixed buffer yielded strongly biased selection estimates that could be corrected by including the distance function but remained inefficient relative to the empirical and parametric sampling methods. As a case study, we used location data collected from elk in Yellowstone National Park, USA, to show that selection and bias may be temporally variable. Because under constant selection the amount of bias depends on the scale at which a resource is distributed in the landscape, we suggest that distance always be included as a covariate in SSF analyses. This approach to modeling resource selection is easily implemented using common statistical tools and promises to provide deeper insight into the movement ecology of animals.

Set selection dynamical system neural networks with partial memories, with applications to Sudoku and KenKen puzzles.

PubMed

Boreland, B; Clement, G; Kunze, H

2015-08-01

After reviewing set selection and memory model dynamical system neural networks, we introduce a neural network model that combines set selection with partial memories (stored memories on subsets of states in the network). We establish that feasible equilibria with all states equal to ± 1 correspond to answers to a particular set theoretic problem. We show that KenKen puzzles can be formulated as a particular case of this set theoretic problem and use the neural network model to solve them; in addition, we use a similar approach to solve Sudoku. We illustrate the approach in examples. As a heuristic experiment, we use online or print resources to identify the difficulty of the puzzles and compare these difficulties to the number of iterations used by the appropriate neural network solver, finding a strong relationship. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hybrid gene selection approach for microarray data classification using cellular learning automata and ant colony optimization.

PubMed

Vafaee Sharbaf, Fatemeh; Mosafer, Sara; Moattar, Mohammad Hossein

2016-06-01

This paper proposes an approach for gene selection in microarray data. The proposed approach consists of a primary filter approach using Fisher criterion which reduces the initial genes and hence the search space and time complexity. Then, a wrapper approach which is based on cellular learning automata (CLA) optimized with ant colony method (ACO) is used to find the set of features which improve the classification accuracy. CLA is applied due to its capability to learn and model complicated relationships. The selected features from the last phase are evaluated using ROC curve and the most effective while smallest feature subset is determined. The classifiers which are evaluated in the proposed framework are K-nearest neighbor; support vector machine and naïve Bayes. The proposed approach is evaluated on 4 microarray datasets. The evaluations confirm that the proposed approach can find the smallest subset of genes while approaching the maximum accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Permutation Approach for Selecting the Penalty Parameter in Penalized Model Selection

PubMed Central

Sabourin, Jeremy A; Valdar, William; Nobel, Andrew B

2015-01-01

Summary We describe a simple, computationally effcient, permutation-based procedure for selecting the penalty parameter in LASSO penalized regression. The procedure, permutation selection, is intended for applications where variable selection is the primary focus, and can be applied in a variety of structural settings, including that of generalized linear models. We briefly discuss connections between permutation selection and existing theory for the LASSO. In addition, we present a simulation study and an analysis of real biomedical data sets in which permutation selection is compared with selection based on the following: cross-validation (CV), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Scaled Sparse Linear Regression, and a selection method based on recently developed testing procedures for the LASSO. PMID:26243050

Estimating Influenza Outbreaks Using Both Search Engine Query Data and Social Media Data in South Korea.

PubMed

Woo, Hyekyung; Cho, Youngtae; Shim, Eunyoung; Lee, Jong-Koo; Lee, Chang-Gun; Kim, Seong Hwan

2016-07-04

As suggested as early as in 2006, logs of queries submitted to search engines seeking information could be a source for detection of emerging influenza epidemics if changes in the volume of search queries are monitored (infodemiology). However, selecting queries that are most likely to be associated with influenza epidemics is a particular challenge when it comes to generating better predictions. In this study, we describe a methodological extension for detecting influenza outbreaks using search query data; we provide a new approach for query selection through the exploration of contextual information gleaned from social media data. Additionally, we evaluate whether it is possible to use these queries for monitoring and predicting influenza epidemics in South Korea. Our study was based on freely available weekly influenza incidence data and query data originating from the search engine on the Korean website Daum between April 3, 2011 and April 5, 2014. To select queries related to influenza epidemics, several approaches were applied: (1) exploring influenza-related words in social media data, (2) identifying the chief concerns related to influenza, and (3) using Web query recommendations. Optimal feature selection by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) and support vector machine for regression (SVR) were used to construct a model predicting influenza epidemics. In total, 146 queries related to influenza were generated through our initial query selection approach. A considerable proportion of optimal features for final models were derived from queries with reference to the social media data. The SVR model performed well: the prediction values were highly correlated with the recent observed influenza-like illness (r=.956; P<.001) and virological incidence rate (r=.963; P<.001). These results demonstrate the feasibility of using search queries to enhance influenza surveillance in South Korea. In addition, an approach for query selection using social media data seems ideal for supporting influenza surveillance based on search query data.

Estimating Influenza Outbreaks Using Both Search Engine Query Data and Social Media Data in South Korea

PubMed Central

Woo, Hyekyung; Shim, Eunyoung; Lee, Jong-Koo; Lee, Chang-Gun; Kim, Seong Hwan

2016-01-01

Background As suggested as early as in 2006, logs of queries submitted to search engines seeking information could be a source for detection of emerging influenza epidemics if changes in the volume of search queries are monitored (infodemiology). However, selecting queries that are most likely to be associated with influenza epidemics is a particular challenge when it comes to generating better predictions. Objective In this study, we describe a methodological extension for detecting influenza outbreaks using search query data; we provide a new approach for query selection through the exploration of contextual information gleaned from social media data. Additionally, we evaluate whether it is possible to use these queries for monitoring and predicting influenza epidemics in South Korea. Methods Our study was based on freely available weekly influenza incidence data and query data originating from the search engine on the Korean website Daum between April 3, 2011 and April 5, 2014. To select queries related to influenza epidemics, several approaches were applied: (1) exploring influenza-related words in social media data, (2) identifying the chief concerns related to influenza, and (3) using Web query recommendations. Optimal feature selection by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) and support vector machine for regression (SVR) were used to construct a model predicting influenza epidemics. Results In total, 146 queries related to influenza were generated through our initial query selection approach. A considerable proportion of optimal features for final models were derived from queries with reference to the social media data. The SVR model performed well: the prediction values were highly correlated with the recent observed influenza-like illness (r=.956; P<.001) and virological incidence rate (r=.963; P<.001). Conclusions These results demonstrate the feasibility of using search queries to enhance influenza surveillance in South Korea. In addition, an approach for query selection using social media data seems ideal for supporting influenza surveillance based on search query data. PMID:27377323

Unbiased split variable selection for random survival forests using maximally selected rank statistics.

PubMed

Wright, Marvin N; Dankowski, Theresa; Ziegler, Andreas

2017-04-15

The most popular approach for analyzing survival data is the Cox regression model. The Cox model may, however, be misspecified, and its proportionality assumption may not always be fulfilled. An alternative approach for survival prediction is random forests for survival outcomes. The standard split criterion for random survival forests is the log-rank test statistic, which favors splitting variables with many possible split points. Conditional inference forests avoid this split variable selection bias. However, linear rank statistics are utilized by default in conditional inference forests to select the optimal splitting variable, which cannot detect non-linear effects in the independent variables. An alternative is to use maximally selected rank statistics for the split point selection. As in conditional inference forests, splitting variables are compared on the p-value scale. However, instead of the conditional Monte-Carlo approach used in conditional inference forests, p-value approximations are employed. We describe several p-value approximations and the implementation of the proposed random forest approach. A simulation study demonstrates that unbiased split variable selection is possible. However, there is a trade-off between unbiased split variable selection and runtime. In benchmark studies of prediction performance on simulated and real datasets, the new method performs better than random survival forests if informative dichotomous variables are combined with uninformative variables with more categories and better than conditional inference forests if non-linear covariate effects are included. In a runtime comparison, the method proves to be computationally faster than both alternatives, if a simple p-value approximation is used. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Robust artificial neural network for reliability and sensitivity analyses of complex non-linear systems.

PubMed

Oparaji, Uchenna; Sheu, Rong-Jiun; Bankhead, Mark; Austin, Jonathan; Patelli, Edoardo

2017-12-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are commonly used in place of expensive models to reduce the computational burden required for uncertainty quantification, reliability and sensitivity analyses. ANN with selected architecture is trained with the back-propagation algorithm from few data representatives of the input/output relationship of the underlying model of interest. However, different performing ANNs might be obtained with the same training data as a result of the random initialization of the weight parameters in each of the network, leading to an uncertainty in selecting the best performing ANN. On the other hand, using cross-validation to select the best performing ANN based on the ANN with the highest R 2 value can lead to biassing in the prediction. This is as a result of the fact that the use of R 2 cannot determine if the prediction made by ANN is biased. Additionally, R 2 does not indicate if a model is adequate, as it is possible to have a low R 2 for a good model and a high R 2 for a bad model. Hence, in this paper, we propose an approach to improve the robustness of a prediction made by ANN. The approach is based on a systematic combination of identical trained ANNs, by coupling the Bayesian framework and model averaging. Additionally, the uncertainties of the robust prediction derived from the approach are quantified in terms of confidence intervals. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach, two synthetic numerical examples are presented. Finally, the proposed approach is used to perform a reliability and sensitivity analyses on a process simulation model of a UK nuclear effluent treatment plant developed by National Nuclear Laboratory (NNL) and treated in this study as a black-box employing a set of training data as a test case. This model has been extensively validated against plant and experimental data and used to support the UK effluent discharge strategy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model selection and Bayesian inference for high-resolution seabed reflection inversion.

PubMed

Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E; Holland, Charles W

2009-02-01

This paper applies Bayesian inference, including model selection and posterior parameter inference, to inversion of seabed reflection data to resolve sediment structure at a spatial scale below the pulse length of the acoustic source. A practical approach to model selection is used, employing the Bayesian information criterion to decide on the number of sediment layers needed to sufficiently fit the data while satisfying parsimony to avoid overparametrization. Posterior parameter inference is carried out using an efficient Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for high-dimensional models, and results are presented as marginal-probability depth distributions for sound velocity, density, and attenuation. The approach is applied to plane-wave reflection-coefficient inversion of single-bounce data collected on the Malta Plateau, Mediterranean Sea, which indicate complex fine structure close to the water-sediment interface. This fine structure is resolved in the geoacoustic inversion results in terms of four layers within the upper meter of sediments. The inversion results are in good agreement with parameter estimates from a gravity core taken at the experiment site.

Construction of nested maximin designs based on successive local enumeration and modified novel global harmony search algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Jin; Li, Xinyu; Xiao, Mi; Xu, Junnan; Zhang, Lin

2017-01-01

Engineering design often involves different types of simulation, which results in expensive computational costs. Variable fidelity approximation-based design optimization approaches can realize effective simulation and efficiency optimization of the design space using approximation models with different levels of fidelity and have been widely used in different fields. As the foundations of variable fidelity approximation models, the selection of sample points of variable-fidelity approximation, called nested designs, is essential. In this article a novel nested maximin Latin hypercube design is constructed based on successive local enumeration and a modified novel global harmony search algorithm. In the proposed nested designs, successive local enumeration is employed to select sample points for a low-fidelity model, whereas the modified novel global harmony search algorithm is employed to select sample points for a high-fidelity model. A comparative study with multiple criteria and an engineering application are employed to verify the efficiency of the proposed nested designs approach.

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

PubMed

Bobb, Jennifer F; Dominici, Francesca; Peng, Roger D

2011-12-01

Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Explaining outcomes in major system change: a qualitative study of implementing centralised acute stroke services in two large metropolitan regions in England.

PubMed

Fulop, Naomi J; Ramsay, Angus I G; Perry, Catherine; Boaden, Ruth J; McKevitt, Christopher; Rudd, Anthony G; Turner, Simon J; Tyrrell, Pippa J; Wolfe, Charles D A; Morris, Stephen

2016-06-03

Implementing major system change in healthcare is not well understood. This gap may be addressed by analysing change in terms of interrelated components identified in the implementation literature, including decision to change, intervention selection, implementation approaches, implementation outcomes, and intervention outcomes. We conducted a qualitative study of two cases of major system change: the centralisation of acute stroke services in Manchester and London, which were associated with significantly different implementation outcomes (fidelity to referral pathway) and intervention outcomes (provision of evidence-based care, patient mortality). We interviewed stakeholders at national, pan-regional, and service-levels (n = 125) and analysed 653 documents. Using a framework developed for this study from the implementation science literature, we examined factors influencing implementation approaches; how these approaches interacted with the models selected to influence implementation outcomes; and their relationship to intervention outcomes. London and Manchester's differing implementation outcomes were influenced by the different service models selected and implementation approaches used. Fidelity to the referral pathway was higher in London, where a 'simpler', more inclusive model was used, implemented with a 'big bang' launch and 'hands-on' facilitation by stroke clinical networks. In contrast, a phased approach of a more complex pathway was used in Manchester, and the network acted more as a platform to share learning. Service development occurred more uniformly in London, where service specifications were linked to financial incentives, and achieving standards was a condition of service launch, in contrast to Manchester. 'Hands-on' network facilitation, in the form of dedicated project management support, contributed to achievement of these standards in London; such facilitation processes were less evident in Manchester. Using acute stroke service centralisation in London and Manchester as an example, interaction between model selected and implementation approaches significantly influenced fidelity to the model. The contrasting implementation outcomes may have affected differences in provision of evidence-based care and patient mortality. The framework used in this analysis may support planning and evaluating major system changes, but would benefit from application in different healthcare contexts.

Commodity-based Approach for Evaluating the Value of Freight Moving on Texas’ Roadway Network

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-12-10

The researchers took a commodity-based approach to evaluate the value of a list of selected commodities moved on the Texas freight network. This approach takes advantage of commodity-specific data sources and modeling processes. It provides a unique ...

Using multilevel models to quantify heterogeneity in resource selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Christensen, Sonja; Norton, Andrew S.

2011-01-01

Models of resource selection are being used increasingly to predict or model the effects of management actions rather than simply quantifying habitat selection. Multilevel, or hierarchical, models are an increasingly popular method to analyze animal resource selection because they impose a relatively weak stochastic constraint to model heterogeneity in habitat use and also account for unequal sample sizes among individuals. However, few studies have used multilevel models to model coefficients as a function of predictors that may influence habitat use at different scales or quantify differences in resource selection among groups. We used an example with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) to illustrate how to model resource use as a function of distance to road that varies among deer by road density at the home range scale. We found that deer avoidance of roads decreased as road density increased. Also, we used multilevel models with sika deer (Cervus nippon) and white-tailed deer to examine whether resource selection differed between species. We failed to detect differences in resource use between these two species and showed how information-theoretic and graphical measures can be used to assess how resource use may have differed. Multilevel models can improve our understanding of how resource selection varies among individuals and provides an objective, quantifiable approach to assess differences or changes in resource selection.

From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health.

PubMed

Fock, Heino O; Kraus, Gerd

2016-01-01

Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR assessment for the southern North Sea showed, that with the selected 36 indicators 48% of ecosystem variability could be explained. Tools for the ex-ante branch are risk and ecosystem models with the capability to analyze trade-offs, generating model output for each of the pressure chains to allow for a phasing-out of human pressures. The Bayesian measure of ecosystem health is sensitive to trends in environmental features, but robust to ecosystem variability in line with state space models. The combination of the ex-ante and ex-post branch is essential to evaluate ecosystem resilience and to adopt adaptive management. Based on requirements of the heuristic approach, three possible developments of this concept can be envisioned, i.e. a governance driven approach built upon participatory processes, a science driven functional-holistic approach requiring extensive monitoring to analyze complete ecosystem variability, and an approach with emphasis on ex-ante modeling and ex-post assessment of well-studied subsystems.

From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health

PubMed Central

Kraus, Gerd

2016-01-01

Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR assessment for the southern North Sea showed, that with the selected 36 indicators 48% of ecosystem variability could be explained. Tools for the ex-ante branch are risk and ecosystem models with the capability to analyze trade-offs, generating model output for each of the pressure chains to allow for a phasing-out of human pressures. The Bayesian measure of ecosystem health is sensitive to trends in environmental features, but robust to ecosystem variability in line with state space models. The combination of the ex-ante and ex-post branch is essential to evaluate ecosystem resilience and to adopt adaptive management. Based on requirements of the heuristic approach, three possible developments of this concept can be envisioned, i.e. a governance driven approach built upon participatory processes, a science driven functional-holistic approach requiring extensive monitoring to analyze complete ecosystem variability, and an approach with emphasis on ex-ante modeling and ex-post assessment of well-studied subsystems. PMID:27509185

Performance of two predictive uncertainty estimation approaches for conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model: Bayesian Joint Inference and Hydrologic Uncertainty Post-processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-López, Mario R.; Romero-Cuéllar, Jonathan; Camilo Múnera-Estrada, Juan; Coccia, Gabriele; Francés, Félix

2017-04-01

It is noticeably important to emphasize the role of uncertainty particularly when the model forecasts are used to support decision-making and water management. This research compares two approaches for the evaluation of the predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling. First approach is the Bayesian Joint Inference of hydrological and error models. Second approach is carried out through the Model Conditional Processor using the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. This comparison is focused on the predictive distribution reliability. The case study is applied to two basins included in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). These two basins, which have different hydrological complexity, are the French Broad River (North Carolina) and the Guadalupe River (Texas). The results indicate that generally, both approaches are able to provide similar predictive performances. However, the differences between them can arise in basins with complex hydrology (e.g. ephemeral basins). This is because obtained results with Bayesian Joint Inference are strongly dependent on the suitability of the hypothesized error model. Similarly, the results in the case of the Model Conditional Processor are mainly influenced by the selected model of tails or even by the selected full probability distribution model of the data in the real space, and by the definition of the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. In summary, the different hypotheses that the modeler choose on each of the two approaches are the main cause of the different results. This research also explores a proper combination of both methodologies which could be useful to achieve less biased hydrological parameter estimation. For this approach, firstly the predictive distribution is obtained through the Model Conditional Processor. Secondly, this predictive distribution is used to derive the corresponding additive error model which is employed for the hydrological parameter estimation with the Bayesian Joint Inference methodology.

Knowledge based identification of MAO-B selective inhibitors using pharmacophore and structure based virtual screening models.

PubMed

Boppana, Kiran; Dubey, P K; Jagarlapudi, Sarma A R P; Vadivelan, S; Rambabu, G

2009-09-01

Monoamine Oxidase B interaction with known ligands was investigated using combined pharmacophore and structure based modeling approach. The docking results suggested that the pharmacophore and docking models are in good agreement and are used to identify the selective MAO-B inhibitors. The best model, Hypo2 consists of three pharmacophore features, i.e., one hydrogen bond acceptor, one hydrogen bond donor and one ring aromatic. The Hypo2 model was used to screen an in-house database of 80,000 molecules and have resulted in 5500 compounds. Docking studies were performed, subsequently, on the cluster representatives of 530 hits from 5500 compounds. Based on the structural novelty and selectivity index, we have suggested 15 selective MAO-B inhibitors for further synthesis and pharmacological screening.

On the selection of ordinary differential equation models with application to predator-prey dynamical models.

PubMed

Zhang, Xinyu; Cao, Jiguo; Carroll, Raymond J

2015-03-01

We consider model selection and estimation in a context where there are competing ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, and all the models are special cases of a "full" model. We propose a computationally inexpensive approach that employs statistical estimation of the full model, followed by a combination of a least squares approximation (LSA) and the adaptive Lasso. We show the resulting method, here called the LSA method, to be an (asymptotically) oracle model selection method. The finite sample performance of the proposed LSA method is investigated with Monte Carlo simulations, in which we examine the percentage of selecting true ODE models, the efficiency of the parameter estimation compared to simply using the full and true models, and coverage probabilities of the estimated confidence intervals for ODE parameters, all of which have satisfactory performances. Our method is also demonstrated by selecting the best predator-prey ODE to model a lynx and hare population dynamical system among some well-known and biologically interpretable ODE models. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Adjusting HIV prevalence estimates for non-participation: an application to demographic surveillance

PubMed Central

McGovern, Mark E.; Marra, Giampiero; Radice, Rosalba; Canning, David; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till

2015-01-01

Introduction HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman-type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population-based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa. Methods We used data from a population-based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status. Results For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27–40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15–35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who participated in testing, and 18% estimated with imputation. We provide new confidence intervals that correct for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is unknown and requires estimation. Conclusions We confirm the feasibility and value of adopting selection models to account for missing data in population-based HIV surveys and surveillance systems. Elements of survey design, such as interviewer identity, present the opportunity to adopt this approach in routine applications. Where non-participation is high, true confidence intervals are much wider than those generated by standard approaches to dealing with missing data suggest. PMID:26613900

An integrated fuzzy approach for strategic alliance partner selection in third-party logistics.

PubMed

Erkayman, Burak; Gundogar, Emin; Yilmaz, Aysegul

2012-01-01

Outsourcing some of the logistic activities is a useful strategy for companies in recent years. This makes it possible for firms to concentrate on their main issues and processes and presents facility to improve logistics performance, to reduce costs, and to improve quality. Therefore provider selection and evaluation in third-party logistics become important activities for companies. Making a strategic decision like this is significantly hard and crucial. In this study we proposed a fuzzy multicriteria decision making (MCDM) approach to effectively select the most appropriate provider. First we identify the provider selection criteria and build the hierarchical structure of decision model. After building the hierarchical structure we determined the selection criteria weights by using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique. Then we applied fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to obtain final rankings for providers. And finally an illustrative example is also given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

An Integrated Fuzzy Approach for Strategic Alliance Partner Selection in Third-Party Logistics

PubMed Central

Gundogar, Emin; Yılmaz, Aysegul

2012-01-01

Outsourcing some of the logistic activities is a useful strategy for companies in recent years. This makes it possible for firms to concentrate on their main issues and processes and presents facility to improve logistics performance, to reduce costs, and to improve quality. Therefore provider selection and evaluation in third-party logistics become important activities for companies. Making a strategic decision like this is significantly hard and crucial. In this study we proposed a fuzzy multicriteria decision making (MCDM) approach to effectively select the most appropriate provider. First we identify the provider selection criteria and build the hierarchical structure of decision model. After building the hierarchical structure we determined the selection criteria weights by using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique. Then we applied fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to obtain final rankings for providers. And finally an illustrative example is also given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. PMID:23365520

Selecting among competing models of electro-optic, infrared camera system range performance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, Jonathan M.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.

2013-01-01

Range performance is often the key requirement around which electro-optical and infrared camera systems are designed. This work presents an objective framework for evaluating competing range performance models. Model selection based on the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) is presented for the type of data collected during a typical human observer and target identification experiment. These methods are then demonstrated on observer responses to both visible and infrared imagery in which one of three maritime targets was placed at various ranges. We compare the performance of a number of different models, including those appearing previously in the literature. We conclude that our model-based approach offers substantial improvements over the traditional approach to inference, including increased precision and the ability to make predictions for some distances other than the specific set for which experimental trials were conducted.

Unraveling the sub-processes of selective attention: insights from dynamic modeling and continuous behavior.

PubMed

Frisch, Simon; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Görner, Max; Goschke, Thomas; Scherbaum, Stefan

2015-11-01

Selective attention biases information processing toward stimuli that are relevant for achieving our goals. However, the nature of this bias is under debate: Does it solely rely on the amplification of goal-relevant information or is there a need for additional inhibitory processes that selectively suppress currently distracting information? Here, we explored the processes underlying selective attention with a dynamic, modeling-based approach that focuses on the continuous evolution of behavior over time. We present two dynamic neural field models incorporating the diverging theoretical assumptions. Simulations with both models showed that they make similar predictions with regard to response times but differ markedly with regard to their continuous behavior. Human data observed via mouse tracking as a continuous measure of performance revealed evidence for the model solely based on amplification but no indication of persisting selective distracter inhibition.

Where neuroscience and dynamic system theory meet autonomous robotics: a contracting basal ganglia model for action selection.

PubMed

Girard, B; Tabareau, N; Pham, Q C; Berthoz, A; Slotine, J-J

2008-05-01

Action selection, the problem of choosing what to do next, is central to any autonomous agent architecture. We use here a multi-disciplinary approach at the convergence of neuroscience, dynamical system theory and autonomous robotics, in order to propose an efficient action selection mechanism based on a new model of the basal ganglia. We first describe new developments of contraction theory regarding locally projected dynamical systems. We exploit these results to design a stable computational model of the cortico-baso-thalamo-cortical loops. Based on recent anatomical data, we include usually neglected neural projections, which participate in performing accurate selection. Finally, the efficiency of this model as an autonomous robot action selection mechanism is assessed in a standard survival task. The model exhibits valuable dithering avoidance and energy-saving properties, when compared with a simple if-then-else decision rule.

Structure-Based Approach To Identify 5-[4-Hydroxyphenyl]pyrrole-2-carbonitrile Derivatives as Potent and Tissue Selective Androgen Receptor Modulators.

PubMed

Unwalla, Ray; Mousseau, James J; Fadeyi, Olugbeminiyi O; Choi, Chulho; Parris, Kevin; Hu, Baihua; Kenney, Thomas; Chippari, Susan; McNally, Christopher; Vishwanathan, Karthick; Kilbourne, Edward; Thompson, Catherine; Nagpal, Sunil; Wrobel, Jay; Yudt, Matthew; Morris, Carl A; Powell, Dennis; Gilbert, Adam M; Chekler, Eugene L Piatnitski

2017-07-27

In an effort to find new and safer treatments for osteoporosis and frailty, we describe a novel series of selective androgen receptor modulators (SARMs). Using a structure-based approach, we identified compound 7, a potent AR (ARE EC 50 = 0.34 nM) and selective (N/C interaction EC 50 = 1206 nM) modulator. In vivo data, an AR LBD X-ray structure of 7, and further insights from modeling studies of ligand receptor interactions are also presented.

A preliminary damage tolerance methodology for composite structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilkins, D. J.

1983-01-01

The certification experience for the primary, safety-of-flight composite structure applications on the F-16 is discussed. The rationale for the selection of delamination as the major issue for damage tolerance is discussed, as well as the modeling approach selected. The development of the necessary coupon-level data base is briefly summarized. The major emphasis is on the description of a full-scale fatigue test where delamination growth was obtained to demonstrate the validity of the selected approach. A summary is used to review the generic features of the methodology.

Iterative Refinement of a Binding Pocket Model: Active Computational Steering of Lead Optimization

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Computational approaches for binding affinity prediction are most frequently demonstrated through cross-validation within a series of molecules or through performance shown on a blinded test set. Here, we show how such a system performs in an iterative, temporal lead optimization exercise. A series of gyrase inhibitors with known synthetic order formed the set of molecules that could be selected for “synthesis.” Beginning with a small number of molecules, based only on structures and activities, a model was constructed. Compound selection was done computationally, each time making five selections based on confident predictions of high activity and five selections based on a quantitative measure of three-dimensional structural novelty. Compound selection was followed by model refinement using the new data. Iterative computational candidate selection produced rapid improvements in selected compound activity, and incorporation of explicitly novel compounds uncovered much more diverse active inhibitors than strategies lacking active novelty selection. PMID:23046104

Instances selection algorithm by ensemble margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saidi, Meryem; Bechar, Mohammed El Amine; Settouti, Nesma; Chikh, Mohamed Amine

2018-05-01

The main limit of data mining algorithms is their inability to deal with the huge amount of available data in a reasonable processing time. A solution of producing fast and accurate results is instances and features selection. This process eliminates noisy or redundant data in order to reduce the storage and computational cost without performances degradation. In this paper, a new instance selection approach called Ensemble Margin Instance Selection (EMIS) algorithm is proposed. This approach is based on the ensemble margin. To evaluate our approach, we have conducted several experiments on different real-world classification problems from UCI Machine learning repository. The pixel-based image segmentation is a field where the storage requirement and computational cost of applied model become higher. To solve these limitations we conduct a study based on the application of EMIS and other instance selection techniques for the segmentation and automatic recognition of white blood cells WBC (nucleus and cytoplasm) in cytological images.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Esfahani, M. Nasr; Yilmaz, M.; Sonne, M. R.

The trend towards nanomechanical resonator sensors with increasing sensitivity raises the need to address challenges encountered in the modeling of their mechanical behavior. Selecting the best approach in mechanical response modeling amongst the various potential computational solid mechanics methods is subject to controversy. A guideline for the selection of the appropriate approach for a specific set of geometry and mechanical properties is needed. In this study, geometrical limitations in frequency response modeling of flexural nanomechanical resonators are investigated. Deviation of Euler and Timoshenko beam theories from numerical techniques including finite element modeling and Surface Cauchy-Born technique are studied. The resultsmore » provide a limit beyond which surface energy contribution dominates the mechanical behavior. Using the Surface Cauchy-Born technique as the reference, a maximum error on the order of 50 % is reported for high-aspect ratio resonators.« less

Evaluation of portfolio credit risk based on survival analysis for progressive censored data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaber, Jamil J.; Ismail, Noriszura; Ramli, Siti Norafidah Mohd

2017-04-01

In credit risk management, the Basel committee provides a choice of three approaches to the financial institutions for calculating the required capital: the standardized approach, the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the Advanced IRB approach. The IRB approach is usually preferred compared to the standard approach due to its higher accuracy and lower capital charges. This paper use several parametric models (Exponential, log-normal, Gamma, Weibull, Log-logistic, Gompertz) to evaluate the credit risk of the corporate portfolio in the Jordanian banks based on the monthly sample collected from January 2010 to December 2015. The best model is selected using several goodness-of-fit criteria (MSE, AIC, BIC). The results indicate that the Gompertz distribution is the best model parametric model for the data.

Quantum vision in three dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roth, Yehuda

We present four models for describing a 3-D vision. Similar to the mirror scenario, our models allow 3-D vision with no need for additional accessories such as stereoscopic glasses or a hologram film. These four models are based on brain interpretation rather than pure objective encryption. We consider the observer "subjective" selection of a measuring device and the corresponding quantum collapse into one of his selected states, as a tool for interpreting reality in according to the observer concepts. This is the basic concept of our study and it is introduced in the first model. Other models suggests "soften" versions that might be much easier to implement. Our quantum interpretation approach contribute to the following fields. In technology the proposed models can be implemented into real devices, allowing 3-D vision without additional accessories. Artificial intelligence: In the desire to create a machine that exchange information by using human terminologies, our interpretation approach seems to be appropriate.

A data-driven approach to modeling physical fatigue in the workplace using wearable sensors.

PubMed

Sedighi Maman, Zahra; Alamdar Yazdi, Mohammad Ali; Cavuoto, Lora A; Megahed, Fadel M

2017-11-01

Wearable sensors are currently being used to manage fatigue in professional athletics, transportation and mining industries. In manufacturing, physical fatigue is a challenging ergonomic/safety "issue" since it lowers productivity and increases the incidence of accidents. Therefore, physical fatigue must be managed. There are two main goals for this study. First, we examine the use of wearable sensors to detect physical fatigue occurrence in simulated manufacturing tasks. The second goal is to estimate the physical fatigue level over time. In order to achieve these goals, sensory data were recorded for eight healthy participants. Penalized logistic and multiple linear regression models were used for physical fatigue detection and level estimation, respectively. Important features from the five sensors locations were selected using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), a popular variable selection methodology. The results show that the LASSO model performed well for both physical fatigue detection and modeling. The modeling approach is not participant and/or workload regime specific and thus can be adopted for other applications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An ecosystem model for tropical forest disturbance and selective logging

Treesearch

Maoyi Huang; Gregory P. Asner; Michael Keller; Joseph A. Berry

2008-01-01

[1] A new three-dimensional version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model (CASA-3D) was developed to simulate regional carbon cycling in tropical forest ecosystems after disturbances such as logging. CASA-3D has the following new features: (1) an alternative approach for calculating absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) using new...

Selecting Growth Measures for Use in School Evaluation Systems: Should Proportionality Matter?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ehlert, Mark; Koedel, Cory; Parsons, Eric; Podgursky, Michael

2016-01-01

The specifics of how growth models should be constructed and used for educational evaluation is a topic of lively policy debate in states and school districts nationwide. In this article, we take up the question of model choice--framed within a policy context--and examine three competing approaches. The first approach, reflected in the popular…

Validation and calibration of structural models that combine information from multiple sources.

PubMed

Dahabreh, Issa J; Wong, John B; Trikalinos, Thomas A

2017-02-01

Mathematical models that attempt to capture structural relationships between their components and combine information from multiple sources are increasingly used in medicine. Areas covered: We provide an overview of methods for model validation and calibration and survey studies comparing alternative approaches. Expert commentary: Model validation entails a confrontation of models with data, background knowledge, and other models, and can inform judgments about model credibility. Calibration involves selecting parameter values to improve the agreement of model outputs with data. When the goal of modeling is quantitative inference on the effects of interventions or forecasting, calibration can be viewed as estimation. This view clarifies issues related to parameter identifiability and facilitates formal model validation and the examination of consistency among different sources of information. In contrast, when the goal of modeling is the generation of qualitative insights about the modeled phenomenon, calibration is a rather informal process for selecting inputs that result in model behavior that roughly reproduces select aspects of the modeled phenomenon and cannot be equated to an estimation procedure. Current empirical research on validation and calibration methods consists primarily of methodological appraisals or case-studies of alternative techniques and cannot address the numerous complex and multifaceted methodological decisions that modelers must make. Further research is needed on different approaches for developing and validating complex models that combine evidence from multiple sources.

An optimization modeling approach to awarding large fire support wildfire helicopter contracts from the US Forest Service

Treesearch

Stephanie A. Snyder; Keith D. Stockmann; Gaylord E. Morris

2012-01-01

The US Forest Service used contracted helicopter services as part of its wildfire suppression strategy. An optimization decision-modeling system was developed to assist in the contract selection process. Three contract award selection criteria were considered: cost per pound of delivered water, total contract cost, and quality ratings of the aircraft and vendors....

A re-evaluation of a case-control model with contaminated controls for resource selection studies

Treesearch

Christopher T. Rota; Joshua J. Millspaugh; Dylan C. Kesler; Chad P. Lehman; Mark A. Rumble; Catherine M. B. Jachowski

2013-01-01

A common sampling design in resource selection studies involves measuring resource attributes at sample units used by an animal and at sample units considered available for use. Few models can estimate the absolute probability of using a sample unit from such data, but such approaches are generally preferred over statistical methods that estimate a relative probability...

MISFITS: evaluating the goodness of fit between a phylogenetic model and an alignment.

PubMed

Nguyen, Minh Anh Thi; Klaere, Steffen; von Haeseler, Arndt

2011-01-01

As models of sequence evolution become more and more complicated, many criteria for model selection have been proposed, and tools are available to select the best model for an alignment under a particular criterion. However, in many instances the selected model fails to explain the data adequately as reflected by large deviations between observed pattern frequencies and the corresponding expectation. We present MISFITS, an approach to evaluate the goodness of fit (http://www.cibiv.at/software/misfits). MISFITS introduces a minimum number of "extra substitutions" on the inferred tree to provide a biologically motivated explanation why the alignment may deviate from expectation. These extra substitutions plus the evolutionary model then fully explain the alignment. We illustrate the method on several examples and then give a survey about the goodness of fit of the selected models to the alignments in the PANDIT database.

Alternating evolutionary pressure in a genetic algorithm facilitates protein model selection

PubMed Central

Offman, Marc N; Tournier, Alexander L; Bates, Paul A

2008-01-01

Background Automatic protein modelling pipelines are becoming ever more accurate; this has come hand in hand with an increasingly complicated interplay between all components involved. Nevertheless, there are still potential improvements to be made in template selection, refinement and protein model selection. Results In the context of an automatic modelling pipeline, we analysed each step separately, revealing several non-intuitive trends and explored a new strategy for protein conformation sampling using Genetic Algorithms (GA). We apply the concept of alternating evolutionary pressure (AEP), i.e. intermediate rounds within the GA runs where unrestrained, linear growth of the model populations is allowed. Conclusion This approach improves the overall performance of the GA by allowing models to overcome local energy barriers. AEP enabled the selection of the best models in 40% of all targets; compared to 25% for a normal GA. PMID:18673557

Can machine learning complement traditional medical device surveillance? A case study of dual-chamber implantable cardioverter-defibrillators.

PubMed

Ross, Joseph S; Bates, Jonathan; Parzynski, Craig S; Akar, Joseph G; Curtis, Jeptha P; Desai, Nihar R; Freeman, James V; Gamble, Ginger M; Kuntz, Richard; Li, Shu-Xia; Marinac-Dabic, Danica; Masoudi, Frederick A; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Ranasinghe, Isuru; Shaw, Richard E; Krumholz, Harlan M

2017-01-01

Machine learning methods may complement traditional analytic methods for medical device surveillance. Using data from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry for implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) linked to Medicare administrative claims for longitudinal follow-up, we applied three statistical approaches to safety-signal detection for commonly used dual-chamber ICDs that used two propensity score (PS) models: one specified by subject-matter experts (PS-SME), and the other one by machine learning-based selection (PS-ML). The first approach used PS-SME and cumulative incidence (time-to-event), the second approach used PS-SME and cumulative risk (Data Extraction and Longitudinal Trend Analysis [DELTA]), and the third approach used PS-ML and cumulative risk (embedded feature selection). Safety-signal surveillance was conducted for eleven dual-chamber ICD models implanted at least 2,000 times over 3 years. Between 2006 and 2010, there were 71,948 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries who received dual-chamber ICDs. Cumulative device-specific unadjusted 3-year event rates varied for three surveyed safety signals: death from any cause, 12.8%-20.9%; nonfatal ICD-related adverse events, 19.3%-26.3%; and death from any cause or nonfatal ICD-related adverse event, 27.1%-37.6%. Agreement among safety signals detected/not detected between the time-to-event and DELTA approaches was 90.9% (360 of 396, k =0.068), between the time-to-event and embedded feature-selection approaches was 91.7% (363 of 396, k =-0.028), and between the DELTA and embedded feature selection approaches was 88.1% (349 of 396, k =-0.042). Three statistical approaches, including one machine learning method, identified important safety signals, but without exact agreement. Ensemble methods may be needed to detect all safety signals for further evaluation during medical device surveillance.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shaunak, S.K.; Soni, B.K.

With research interests shifting away from primarily military or industrial applications to more environmental applications, the area of ocean modelling has become an increasingly popular and exciting area of research. This paper presents a CIPS (Computation Field Simulation) system customized for the solution of oceanographic problems. This system deals primarily with the generation of simple, yet efficient grids for coastal areas. The two primary grid approaches are both structured in methodology. The first approach is a standard approach which is used in such popular grid generation softwares as GE-NIE++, EAGLEVIEW, and TIGER, where the user defines boundaries via points, lines,more » or curves, varies the distribution of points along these boundaries and then creates the interior grid. The second approach is to allow the user to interactively select points on the screen to form the boundary curves and then create the interior grid from these spline curves. The program has been designed with the needs of the ocean modeller in mind so that the modeller can obtain results in a timely yet elegant manner. The modeller performs four basic steps in using the program. First, he selects a region of interest from a popular database. Then, he creates a grid for that region. Next, he sets up boundary and input conditions and runs a circulation model. Finally, the modeller visualizes the output.« less

Penalized spline estimation for functional coefficient regression models.

PubMed

Cao, Yanrong; Lin, Haiqun; Wu, Tracy Z; Yu, Yan

2010-04-01

The functional coefficient regression models assume that the regression coefficients vary with some "threshold" variable, providing appreciable flexibility in capturing the underlying dynamics in data and avoiding the so-called "curse of dimensionality" in multivariate nonparametric estimation. We first investigate the estimation, inference, and forecasting for the functional coefficient regression models with dependent observations via penalized splines. The P-spline approach, as a direct ridge regression shrinkage type global smoothing method, is computationally efficient and stable. With established fixed-knot asymptotics, inference is readily available. Exact inference can be obtained for fixed smoothing parameter λ, which is most appealing for finite samples. Our penalized spline approach gives an explicit model expression, which also enables multi-step-ahead forecasting via simulations. Furthermore, we examine different methods of choosing the important smoothing parameter λ: modified multi-fold cross-validation (MCV), generalized cross-validation (GCV), and an extension of empirical bias bandwidth selection (EBBS) to P-splines. In addition, we implement smoothing parameter selection using mixed model framework through restricted maximum likelihood (REML) for P-spline functional coefficient regression models with independent observations. The P-spline approach also easily allows different smoothness for different functional coefficients, which is enabled by assigning different penalty λ accordingly. We demonstrate the proposed approach by both simulation examples and a real data application.

Automatic selection of localized region-based active contour models using image content analysis applied to brain tumor segmentation.

PubMed

Ilunga-Mbuyamba, Elisee; Avina-Cervantes, Juan Gabriel; Cepeda-Negrete, Jonathan; Ibarra-Manzano, Mario Alberto; Chalopin, Claire

2017-12-01

Brain tumor segmentation is a routine process in a clinical setting and provides useful information for diagnosis and treatment planning. Manual segmentation, performed by physicians or radiologists, is a time-consuming task due to the large quantity of medical data generated presently. Hence, automatic segmentation methods are needed, and several approaches have been introduced in recent years including the Localized Region-based Active Contour Model (LRACM). There are many popular LRACM, but each of them presents strong and weak points. In this paper, the automatic selection of LRACM based on image content and its application on brain tumor segmentation is presented. Thereby, a framework to select one of three LRACM, i.e., Local Gaussian Distribution Fitting (LGDF), localized Chan-Vese (C-V) and Localized Active Contour Model with Background Intensity Compensation (LACM-BIC), is proposed. Twelve visual features are extracted to properly select the method that may process a given input image. The system is based on a supervised approach. Applied specifically to Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) images, the experiments showed that the proposed system is able to correctly select the suitable LRACM to handle a specific image. Consequently, the selection framework achieves better accuracy performance than the three LRACM separately. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selection of appropriate tumour data sets for Benchmark Dose Modelling (BMD) and derivation of a Margin of Exposure (MoE) for substances that are genotoxic and carcinogenic: considerations of biological relevance of tumour type, data quality and uncertainty assessment.

PubMed

Edler, Lutz; Hart, Andy; Greaves, Peter; Carthew, Philip; Coulet, Myriam; Boobis, Alan; Williams, Gary M; Smith, Benjamin

2014-08-01

This article addresses a number of concepts related to the selection and modelling of carcinogenicity data for the calculation of a Margin of Exposure. It follows up on the recommendations put forward by the International Life Sciences Institute - European branch in 2010 on the application of the Margin of Exposure (MoE) approach to substances in food that are genotoxic and carcinogenic. The aims are to provide practical guidance on the relevance of animal tumour data for human carcinogenic hazard assessment, appropriate selection of tumour data for Benchmark Dose Modelling, and approaches for dealing with the uncertainty associated with the selection of data for modelling and, consequently, the derived Point of Departure (PoD) used to calculate the MoE. Although the concepts outlined in this article are interrelated, the background expertise needed to address each topic varies. For instance, the expertise needed to make a judgement on biological relevance of a specific tumour type is clearly different to that needed to determine the statistical uncertainty around the data used for modelling a benchmark dose. As such, each topic is dealt with separately to allow those with specialised knowledge to target key areas of guidance and provide a more in-depth discussion on each subject for those new to the concept of the Margin of Exposure approach. Copyright © 2013 ILSI Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection - Part 1: The participatory modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheer, Dirk; Konrad, Wilfried; Class, Holger; Kissinger, Alexander; Knopf, Stefan; Noack, Vera

2017-06-01

Saltwater intrusion into potential drinking water aquifers due to the injection of CO2 into deep saline aquifers is one of the potential hazards associated with the geological storage of CO2. Thus, in a site selection process, models for predicting the fate of the displaced brine are required, for example, for a risk assessment or the optimization of pressure management concepts. From the very beginning, this research on brine migration aimed at involving expert and stakeholder knowledge and assessment in simulating the impacts of injecting CO2 into deep saline aquifers by means of a participatory modeling process. The involvement exercise made use of two approaches. First, guideline-based interviews were carried out, aiming at eliciting expert and stakeholder knowledge and assessments of geological structures and mechanisms affecting CO2-induced brine migration. Second, a stakeholder workshop including the World Café format yielded evaluations and judgments of the numerical modeling approach, scenario selection, and preliminary simulation results. The participatory modeling approach gained several results covering brine migration in general, the geological model sketch, scenario development, and the review of the preliminary simulation results. These results were included in revised versions of both the geological model and the numerical model, helping to improve the analysis of regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection.

Journal selection decisions: a biomedical library operations research model. I. The framework.

PubMed Central

Kraft, D H; Polacsek, R A; Soergel, L; Burns, K; Klair, A

1976-01-01

The problem of deciding which journal titles to select for acquisition in a biomedical library is modeled. The approach taken is based on cost/benefit ratios. Measures of journal worth, methods of data collection, and journal cost data are considered. The emphasis is on the development of a practical process for selecting journal titles, based on the objectivity and rationality of the model; and on the collection of the approprate data and library statistics in a reasonable manner. The implications of this process towards an overall management information system (MIS) for biomedical serials handling are discussed. PMID:820391

Automatic ICD-10 multi-class classification of cause of death from plaintext autopsy reports through expert-driven feature selection.

PubMed

Mujtaba, Ghulam; Shuib, Liyana; Raj, Ram Gopal; Rajandram, Retnagowri; Shaikh, Khairunisa; Al-Garadi, Mohammed Ali

2017-01-01

Widespread implementation of electronic databases has improved the accessibility of plaintext clinical information for supplementary use. Numerous machine learning techniques, such as supervised machine learning approaches or ontology-based approaches, have been employed to obtain useful information from plaintext clinical data. This study proposes an automatic multi-class classification system to predict accident-related causes of death from plaintext autopsy reports through expert-driven feature selection with supervised automatic text classification decision models. Accident-related autopsy reports were obtained from one of the largest hospital in Kuala Lumpur. These reports belong to nine different accident-related causes of death. Master feature vector was prepared by extracting features from the collected autopsy reports by using unigram with lexical categorization. This master feature vector was used to detect cause of death [according to internal classification of disease version 10 (ICD-10) classification system] through five automated feature selection schemes, proposed expert-driven approach, five subset sizes of features, and five machine learning classifiers. Model performance was evaluated using precisionM, recallM, F-measureM, accuracy, and area under ROC curve. Four baselines were used to compare the results with the proposed system. Random forest and J48 decision models parameterized using expert-driven feature selection yielded the highest evaluation measure approaching (85% to 90%) for most metrics by using a feature subset size of 30. The proposed system also showed approximately 14% to 16% improvement in the overall accuracy compared with the existing techniques and four baselines. The proposed system is feasible and practical to use for automatic classification of ICD-10-related cause of death from autopsy reports. The proposed system assists pathologists to accurately and rapidly determine underlying cause of death based on autopsy findings. Furthermore, the proposed expert-driven feature selection approach and the findings are generally applicable to other kinds of plaintext clinical reports.

Automatic ICD-10 multi-class classification of cause of death from plaintext autopsy reports through expert-driven feature selection

PubMed Central

Mujtaba, Ghulam; Shuib, Liyana; Raj, Ram Gopal; Rajandram, Retnagowri; Shaikh, Khairunisa; Al-Garadi, Mohammed Ali

2017-01-01

Objectives Widespread implementation of electronic databases has improved the accessibility of plaintext clinical information for supplementary use. Numerous machine learning techniques, such as supervised machine learning approaches or ontology-based approaches, have been employed to obtain useful information from plaintext clinical data. This study proposes an automatic multi-class classification system to predict accident-related causes of death from plaintext autopsy reports through expert-driven feature selection with supervised automatic text classification decision models. Methods Accident-related autopsy reports were obtained from one of the largest hospital in Kuala Lumpur. These reports belong to nine different accident-related causes of death. Master feature vector was prepared by extracting features from the collected autopsy reports by using unigram with lexical categorization. This master feature vector was used to detect cause of death [according to internal classification of disease version 10 (ICD-10) classification system] through five automated feature selection schemes, proposed expert-driven approach, five subset sizes of features, and five machine learning classifiers. Model performance was evaluated using precisionM, recallM, F-measureM, accuracy, and area under ROC curve. Four baselines were used to compare the results with the proposed system. Results Random forest and J48 decision models parameterized using expert-driven feature selection yielded the highest evaluation measure approaching (85% to 90%) for most metrics by using a feature subset size of 30. The proposed system also showed approximately 14% to 16% improvement in the overall accuracy compared with the existing techniques and four baselines. Conclusion The proposed system is feasible and practical to use for automatic classification of ICD-10-related cause of death from autopsy reports. The proposed system assists pathologists to accurately and rapidly determine underlying cause of death based on autopsy findings. Furthermore, the proposed expert-driven feature selection approach and the findings are generally applicable to other kinds of plaintext clinical reports. PMID:28166263

A cloud model based multi-attribute decision making approach for selection and evaluation of groundwater management schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Hongwei; Ren, Lixia; Chen, Yizhong; Tian, Peipei; Liu, Jia

2017-12-01

Due to the uncertainty (i.e., fuzziness, stochasticity and imprecision) existed simultaneously during the process for groundwater remediation, the accuracy of ranking results obtained by the traditional methods has been limited. This paper proposes a cloud model based multi-attribute decision making framework (CM-MADM) with Monte Carlo for the contaminated-groundwater remediation strategies selection. The cloud model is used to handle imprecise numerical quantities, which can describe the fuzziness and stochasticity of the information fully and precisely. In the proposed approach, the contaminated concentrations are aggregated via the backward cloud generator and the weights of attributes are calculated by employing the weight cloud module. A case study on the remedial alternative selection for a contaminated site suffering from a 1,1,1-trichloroethylene leakage problem in Shanghai, China is conducted to illustrate the efficiency and applicability of the developed approach. Totally, an attribute system which consists of ten attributes were used for evaluating each alternative through the developed method under uncertainty, including daily total pumping rate, total cost and cloud model based health risk. Results indicated that A14 was evaluated to be the most preferred alternative for the 5-year, A5 for the 10-year, A4 for the 15-year and A6 for the 20-year remediation.

Methodological development for selection of significant predictors explaining fatal road accidents.

PubMed

Dadashova, Bahar; Arenas-Ramírez, Blanca; Mira-McWilliams, José; Aparicio-Izquierdo, Francisco

2016-05-01

Identification of the most relevant factors for explaining road accident occurrence is an important issue in road safety research, particularly for future decision-making processes in transport policy. However model selection for this particular purpose is still an ongoing research. In this paper we propose a methodological development for model selection which addresses both explanatory variable and adequate model selection issues. A variable selection procedure, TIM (two-input model) method is carried out by combining neural network design and statistical approaches. The error structure of the fitted model is assumed to follow an autoregressive process. All models are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method where the model parameters are assigned non-informative prior distributions. The final model is built using the results of the variable selection. For the application of the proposed methodology the number of fatal accidents in Spain during 2000-2011 was used. This indicator has experienced the maximum reduction internationally during the indicated years thus making it an interesting time series from a road safety policy perspective. Hence the identification of the variables that have affected this reduction is of particular interest for future decision making. The results of the variable selection process show that the selected variables are main subjects of road safety policy measures. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Selection based on the size of the black tie of the great tit may be reversed in urban habitats.

PubMed

Senar, Juan Carlos; Conroy, Michael J; Quesada, Javier; Mateos-Gonzalez, Fernando

2014-07-01

A standard approach to model how selection shapes phenotypic traits is the analysis of capture-recapture data relating trait variation to survival. Divergent selection, however, has never been analyzed by the capture-recapture approach. Most reported examples of differences between urban and nonurban animals reflect behavioral plasticity rather than divergent selection. The aim of this paper was to use a capture-recapture approach to test the hypothesis that divergent selection can also drive local adaptation in urban habitats. We focused on the size of the black breast stripe (i.e., tie width) of the great tit (Parus major), a sexual ornament used in mate choice. Urban great tits display smaller tie sizes than forest birds. Because tie size is mostly genetically determined, it could potentially respond to selection. We analyzed capture/recapture data of male great tits in Barcelona city (N = 171) and in a nearby (7 km) forest (N = 324) from 1992 to 2008 using MARK. When modelling recapture rate, we found it to be strongly influenced by tie width, so that both for urban and forest habitats, birds with smaller ties were more trap-shy and more cautious than their larger tied counterparts. When modelling survival, we found that survival prospects in forest great tits increased the larger their tie width (i.e., directional positive selection), but the reverse was found for urban birds, with individuals displaying smaller ties showing higher survival (i.e., directional negative selection). As melanin-based tie size seems to be related to personality, and both are heritable, results may be explained by cautious personalities being favored in urban environments. More importantly, our results show that divergent selection can be an important mechanism in local adaptation to urban habitats and that capture-recapture is a powerful tool to test it.

How Darwinian is cultural evolution?

PubMed Central

Claidière, Nicolas; Scott-Phillips, Thomas C.; Sperber, Dan

2014-01-01

Darwin-inspired population thinking suggests approaching culture as a population of items of different types, whose relative frequencies may change over time. Three nested subtypes of populational models can be distinguished: evolutionary, selectional and replicative. Substantial progress has been made in the study of cultural evolution by modelling it within the selectional frame. This progress has involved idealizing away from phenomena that may be critical to an adequate understanding of culture and cultural evolution, particularly the constructive aspect of the mechanisms of cultural transmission. Taking these aspects into account, we describe cultural evolution in terms of cultural attraction, which is populational and evolutionary, but only selectional under certain circumstances. As such, in order to model cultural evolution, we must not simply adjust existing replicative or selectional models but we should rather generalize them, so that, just as replicator-based selection is one form that Darwinian selection can take, selection itself is one of several different forms that attraction can take. We present an elementary formalization of the idea of cultural attraction. PMID:24686939

How Darwinian is cultural evolution?

PubMed

Claidière, Nicolas; Scott-Phillips, Thomas C; Sperber, Dan

2014-05-19

Darwin-inspired population thinking suggests approaching culture as a population of items of different types, whose relative frequencies may change over time. Three nested subtypes of populational models can be distinguished: evolutionary, selectional and replicative. Substantial progress has been made in the study of cultural evolution by modelling it within the selectional frame. This progress has involved idealizing away from phenomena that may be critical to an adequate understanding of culture and cultural evolution, particularly the constructive aspect of the mechanisms of cultural transmission. Taking these aspects into account, we describe cultural evolution in terms of cultural attraction, which is populational and evolutionary, but only selectional under certain circumstances. As such, in order to model cultural evolution, we must not simply adjust existing replicative or selectional models but we should rather generalize them, so that, just as replicator-based selection is one form that Darwinian selection can take, selection itself is one of several different forms that attraction can take. We present an elementary formalization of the idea of cultural attraction.

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data

PubMed Central

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J.; Dieters, Mark J.; Basford, Kaye E.

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances. PMID:26689369

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data.

PubMed

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J; Dieters, Mark J; Basford, Kaye E

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances.

Model Selection in Systems Biology Depends on Experimental Design

PubMed Central

Silk, Daniel; Kirk, Paul D. W.; Barnes, Chris P.; Toni, Tina; Stumpf, Michael P. H.

2014-01-01

Experimental design attempts to maximise the information available for modelling tasks. An optimal experiment allows the inferred models or parameters to be chosen with the highest expected degree of confidence. If the true system is faithfully reproduced by one of the models, the merit of this approach is clear - we simply wish to identify it and the true parameters with the most certainty. However, in the more realistic situation where all models are incorrect or incomplete, the interpretation of model selection outcomes and the role of experimental design needs to be examined more carefully. Using a novel experimental design and model selection framework for stochastic state-space models, we perform high-throughput in-silico analyses on families of gene regulatory cascade models, to show that the selected model can depend on the experiment performed. We observe that experimental design thus makes confidence a criterion for model choice, but that this does not necessarily correlate with a model's predictive power or correctness. Finally, in the special case of linear ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, we explore how wrong a model has to be before it influences the conclusions of a model selection analysis. PMID:24922483

Model selection in systems biology depends on experimental design.

PubMed

Silk, Daniel; Kirk, Paul D W; Barnes, Chris P; Toni, Tina; Stumpf, Michael P H

2014-06-01

Experimental design attempts to maximise the information available for modelling tasks. An optimal experiment allows the inferred models or parameters to be chosen with the highest expected degree of confidence. If the true system is faithfully reproduced by one of the models, the merit of this approach is clear - we simply wish to identify it and the true parameters with the most certainty. However, in the more realistic situation where all models are incorrect or incomplete, the interpretation of model selection outcomes and the role of experimental design needs to be examined more carefully. Using a novel experimental design and model selection framework for stochastic state-space models, we perform high-throughput in-silico analyses on families of gene regulatory cascade models, to show that the selected model can depend on the experiment performed. We observe that experimental design thus makes confidence a criterion for model choice, but that this does not necessarily correlate with a model's predictive power or correctness. Finally, in the special case of linear ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, we explore how wrong a model has to be before it influences the conclusions of a model selection analysis.

Image segmentation using local shape and gray-level appearance models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seghers, Dieter; Loeckx, Dirk; Maes, Frederik; Suetens, Paul

2006-03-01

A new generic model-based segmentation scheme is presented, which can be trained from examples akin to the Active Shape Model (ASM) approach in order to acquire knowledge about the shape to be segmented and about the gray-level appearance of the object in the image. Because in the ASM approach the intensity and shape models are typically applied alternately during optimizing as first an optimal target location is selected for each landmark separately based on local gray-level appearance information only to which the shape model is fitted subsequently, the ASM may be misled in case of wrongly selected landmark locations. Instead, the proposed approach optimizes for shape and intensity characteristics simultaneously. Local gray-level appearance information at the landmark points extracted from feature images is used to automatically detect a number of plausible candidate locations for each landmark. The shape information is described by multiple landmark-specific statistical models that capture local dependencies between adjacent landmarks on the shape. The shape and intensity models are combined in a single cost function that is optimized non-iteratively using dynamic programming which allows to find the optimal landmark positions using combined shape and intensity information, without the need for initialization.

Data-driven confounder selection via Markov and Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Häggström, Jenny

2018-06-01

To unbiasedly estimate a causal effect on an outcome unconfoundedness is often assumed. If there is sufficient knowledge on the underlying causal structure then existing confounder selection criteria can be used to select subsets of the observed pretreatment covariates, X, sufficient for unconfoundedness, if such subsets exist. Here, estimation of these target subsets is considered when the underlying causal structure is unknown. The proposed method is to model the causal structure by a probabilistic graphical model, for example, a Markov or Bayesian network, estimate this graph from observed data and select the target subsets given the estimated graph. The approach is evaluated by simulation both in a high-dimensional setting where unconfoundedness holds given X and in a setting where unconfoundedness only holds given subsets of X. Several common target subsets are investigated and the selected subsets are compared with respect to accuracy in estimating the average causal effect. The proposed method is implemented with existing software that can easily handle high-dimensional data, in terms of large samples and large number of covariates. The results from the simulation study show that, if unconfoundedness holds given X, this approach is very successful in selecting the target subsets, outperforming alternative approaches based on random forests and LASSO, and that the subset estimating the target subset containing all causes of outcome yields smallest MSE in the average causal effect estimation. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

A feature selection approach towards progressive vector transmission over the Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Ru; Song, Jia; Feng, Min

2017-09-01

WebGIS has been applied for visualizing and sharing geospatial information popularly over the Internet. In order to improve the efficiency of the client applications, the web-based progressive vector transmission approach is proposed. Important features should be selected and transferred firstly, and the methods for measuring the importance of features should be further considered in the progressive transmission. However, studies on progressive transmission for large-volume vector data have mostly focused on map generalization in the field of cartography, but rarely discussed on the selection of geographic features quantitatively. This paper applies information theory for measuring the feature importance of vector maps. A measurement model for the amount of information of vector features is defined based upon the amount of information for dealing with feature selection issues. The measurement model involves geometry factor, spatial distribution factor and thematic attribute factor. Moreover, a real-time transport protocol (RTP)-based progressive transmission method is then presented to improve the transmission of vector data. To clearly demonstrate the essential methodology and key techniques, a prototype for web-based progressive vector transmission is presented, and an experiment of progressive selection and transmission for vector features is conducted. The experimental results indicate that our approach clearly improves the performance and end-user experience of delivering and manipulating large vector data over the Internet.

Will genomic selection be a practical method for plant breeding?

PubMed

Nakaya, Akihiro; Isobe, Sachiko N

2012-11-01

Genomic selection or genome-wide selection (GS) has been highlighted as a new approach for marker-assisted selection (MAS) in recent years. GS is a form of MAS that selects favourable individuals based on genomic estimated breeding values. Previous studies have suggested the utility of GS, especially for capturing small-effect quantitative trait loci, but GS has not become a popular methodology in the field of plant breeding, possibly because there is insufficient information available on GS for practical use. In this review, GS is discussed from a practical breeding viewpoint. Statistical approaches employed in GS are briefly described, before the recent progress in GS studies is surveyed. GS practices in plant breeding are then reviewed before future prospects are discussed. Statistical concepts used in GS are discussed with genetic models and variance decomposition, heritability, breeding value and linear model. Recent progress in GS studies is reviewed with a focus on empirical studies. For the practice of GS in plant breeding, several specific points are discussed including linkage disequilibrium, feature of populations and genotyped markers and breeding scheme. Currently, GS is not perfect, but it is a potent, attractive and valuable approach for plant breeding. This method will be integrated into many practical breeding programmes in the near future with further advances and the maturing of its theory.

A new approach to modeling the influence of image features on fixation selection in scenes

PubMed Central

Nuthmann, Antje; Einhäuser, Wolfgang

2015-01-01

Which image characteristics predict where people fixate when memorizing natural images? To answer this question, we introduce a new analysis approach that combines a novel scene-patch analysis with generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Our method allows for (1) directly describing the relationship between continuous feature value and fixation probability, and (2) assessing each feature's unique contribution to fixation selection. To demonstrate this method, we estimated the relative contribution of various image features to fixation selection: luminance and luminance contrast (low-level features); edge density (a mid-level feature); visual clutter and image segmentation to approximate local object density in the scene (higher-level features). An additional predictor captured the central bias of fixation. The GLMM results revealed that edge density, clutter, and the number of homogenous segments in a patch can independently predict whether image patches are fixated or not. Importantly, neither luminance nor contrast had an independent effect above and beyond what could be accounted for by the other predictors. Since the parcellation of the scene and the selection of features can be tailored to the specific research question, our approach allows for assessing the interplay of various factors relevant for fixation selection in scenes in a powerful and flexible manner. PMID:25752239

Allele Age Under Non-Classical Assumptions is Clarified by an Exact Computational Markov Chain Approach.

PubMed

De Sanctis, Bianca; Krukov, Ivan; de Koning, A P Jason

2017-09-19

Determination of the age of an allele based on its population frequency is a well-studied problem in population genetics, for which a variety of approximations have been proposed. We present a new result that, surprisingly, allows the expectation and variance of allele age to be computed exactly (within machine precision) for any finite absorbing Markov chain model in a matter of seconds. This approach makes none of the classical assumptions (e.g., weak selection, reversibility, infinite sites), exploits modern sparse linear algebra techniques, integrates over all sample paths, and is rapidly computable for Wright-Fisher populations up to N e  = 100,000. With this approach, we study the joint effect of recurrent mutation, dominance, and selection, and demonstrate new examples of "selective strolls" where the classical symmetry of allele age with respect to selection is violated by weakly selected alleles that are older than neutral alleles at the same frequency. We also show evidence for a strong age imbalance, where rare deleterious alleles are expected to be substantially older than advantageous alleles observed at the same frequency when population-scaled mutation rates are large. These results highlight the under-appreciated utility of computational methods for the direct analysis of Markov chain models in population genetics.

A model selection approach for robust spatio-temporal analysis of dynamics in 4D fluorescence videomicroscopy.

PubMed

Bechar, Ikhlef; Trubuil, Alain

2006-01-01

We describe a novel automatic approach for vesicle trafficking analysis in 3D+T videomicroscopy. Tracking individually objects in time in 3D+T videomicroscopy is known to be a very tedious job and leads generally to unreliable results. So instead, our method proceeds by first identifying trafficking regions in the 3D volume and next analysing at them the vesicle trafficking. The latter is viewed as significant change in the fluorescence of a region in the image. We embed the problem in a model selection framework and we resolve it using dynamic programming. We applied the proposed approach to analyse the vesicle dynamics related to the trafficking of the RAB6A protein between the Golgi apparatus and ER cell compartments.

Availability-Based Importance Framework for Supplier Selection

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-30

IMA Journal of Management Math, 15(2), 161– 174. Chen, C . -T., Lin, C . -T., & Huang, S. -F. (2006). A fuzzy approach for supplier evaluation and...reliability modeling: Principles and applications. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. Liao, C . -N., & Kao, H. -P. (2011). An integrated fuzzy TOPSIS and MCGP approach to...5307–5326. Wang, J. -W., Cheng, C . -H., & Huang, K.- C . (2009). Fuzzy hierarchical TOPSIS for supplier selection. Applied Soft Computing, 9(1), 377

Analysis of creative mathematic thinking ability in problem based learning model based on self-regulation learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munahefi, D. N.; Waluya, S. B.; Rochmad

2018-03-01

The purpose of this research identified the effectiveness of Problem Based Learning (PBL) models based on Self Regulation Leaning (SRL) on the ability of mathematical creative thinking and analyzed the ability of mathematical creative thinking of high school students in solving mathematical problems. The population of this study was students of grade X SMA N 3 Klaten. The research method used in this research was sequential explanatory. Quantitative stages with simple random sampling technique, where two classes were selected randomly as experimental class was taught with the PBL model based on SRL and control class was taught with expository model. The selection of samples at the qualitative stage was non-probability sampling technique in which each selected 3 students were high, medium, and low academic levels. PBL model with SRL approach effectived to students’ mathematical creative thinking ability. The ability of mathematical creative thinking of low academic level students with PBL model approach of SRL were achieving the aspect of fluency and flexibility. Students of academic level were achieving fluency and flexibility aspects well. But the originality of students at the academic level was not yet well structured. Students of high academic level could reach the aspect of originality.

Monte Carlo modeling of time-resolved fluorescence for depth-selective interrogation of layered tissue.

PubMed

Pfefer, T Joshua; Wang, Quanzeng; Drezek, Rebekah A

2011-11-01

Computational approaches for simulation of light-tissue interactions have provided extensive insight into biophotonic procedures for diagnosis and therapy. However, few studies have addressed simulation of time-resolved fluorescence (TRF) in tissue and none have combined Monte Carlo simulations with standard TRF processing algorithms to elucidate approaches for cancer detection in layered biological tissue. In this study, we investigate how illumination-collection parameters (e.g., collection angle and source-detector separation) influence the ability to measure fluorophore lifetime and tissue layer thickness. Decay curves are simulated with a Monte Carlo TRF light propagation model. Multi-exponential iterative deconvolution is used to determine lifetimes and fractional signal contributions. The ability to detect changes in mucosal thickness is optimized by probes that selectively interrogate regions superficial to the mucosal-submucosal boundary. Optimal accuracy in simultaneous determination of lifetimes in both layers is achieved when each layer contributes 40-60% of the signal. These results indicate that depth-selective approaches to TRF have the potential to enhance disease detection in layered biological tissue and that modeling can play an important role in probe design optimization. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Machine Learning Algorithms for prediction of regions of high Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Aashwin; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2017-11-01

In spite of their deficiencies, RANS models represent the workhorse for industrial investigations into turbulent flows. In this context, it is essential to provide diagnostic measures to assess the quality of RANS predictions. To this end, the primary step is to identify feature importances amongst massive sets of potentially descriptive and discriminative flow features. This aids the physical interpretability of the resultant discrepancy model and its extensibility to similar problems. Recent investigations have utilized approaches such as Random Forests, Support Vector Machines and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator for feature selection. With examples, we exhibit how such methods may not be suitable for turbulent flow datasets. The underlying rationale, such as the correlation bias and the required conditions for the success of penalized algorithms, are discussed with illustrative examples. Finally, we provide alternate approaches using convex combinations of regularized regression approaches and randomized sub-sampling in combination with feature selection algorithms, to infer model structure from data. This research was supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency under the Enabling Quantification of Uncertainty in Physical Systems (EQUiPS) project (technical monitor: Dr Fariba Fahroo).

[Individual growth modeling of the penshell Atrina maura (Bivalvia: Pinnidae) using a multi model inference approach].

PubMed

Aragón-Noriega, Eugenio Alberto

2013-09-01

Growth models of marine animals, for fisheries and/or aquaculture purposes, are based on the popular von Bertalanffy model. This tool is mostly used because its parameters are used to evaluate other fisheries models, such as yield per recruit; nevertheless, there are other alternatives (such as Gompertz, Logistic, Schnute) not yet used by fishery scientists, that may result useful depending on the studied species. The penshell Atrina maura, has been studied for fisheries or aquaculture supplies, but its individual growth has not yet been studied before. The aim of this study was to model the absolute growth of the penshell A. maura using length-age data. For this, five models were assessed to obtain growth parameters: von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, Logistic, Schnute case 1 and Schnute and Richards. The criterion used to select the best models was the Akaike information criterion, as well as the residual squared sum and R2 adjusted. To get the average asymptotic length, the multi model inference approach was used. According to Akaike information criteria, the Gompertz model better described the absolute growth of A. maura. Following the multi model inference approach the average asymptotic shell length was 218.9 mm (IC 212.3-225.5) of shell length. I concluded that the use of the multi model approach and the Akaike information criteria represented the most robust method for growth parameter estimation of A. maura and the von Bertalanffy growth model should not be selected a priori as the true model to obtain the absolute growth in bivalve mollusks like in the studied species in this paper.

How to Select a Good Training-data Subset for Transcription: Submodular Active Selection for Sequences

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

selection and uncertainty sampling signif- icantly. Index Terms: Transcription, labeling, submodularity, submod- ular selection, active learning , sequence...name of batch active learning , where a subset of data that is most informative and represen- tative of the whole is selected for labeling. Often...representative subset. Note that our Fisher ker- nel is over an unsupervised generative model, which enables us to bootstrap our active learning approach

Bayesian Framework Approach for Prognostic Studies in Electrolytic Capacitor under Thermal Overstress Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

make end of life ( EOL ) and remaining useful life (RUL) estimations. Model-based prognostics approaches perform these tasks with the help of first...in parameters Degradation Modeling Parameter estimation Prediction Thermal / Electrical Stress Experimental Data State Space model RUL EOL ...distribution at given single time point kP , and use this for multi-step predictions to EOL . There are several methods which exits for selecting the sigma

SELECTION AND CALIBRATION OF SUBSURFACE REACTIVE TRANSPORT MODELS USING A SURROGATE-MODEL APPROACH

EPA Science Inventory

While standard techniques for uncertainty analysis have been successfully applied to groundwater flow models, extension to reactive transport is frustrated by numerous difficulties, including excessive computational burden and parameter non-uniqueness. This research introduces a...

The Trilayer Approach of Teaching Physiology, Pathophysiology, and Pharmacology Concepts in a First-Year Pharmacy Course: The TLAT Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Islam, Mohammed A.; Sabnis, Gauri; Farris, Fred

2017-01-01

This paper describes the development, implementation, and students' perceptions of a new trilayer approach of teaching (TLAT). The TLAT model involved blending lecture, in-class group activities, and out-of-class assignments on selected content areas and was implemented initially in a first-year integrated pharmacy course. Course contents were…

Selecting Growth Measures for School and Teacher Evaluations. Working Paper 80

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ehlert, Mark; Koedel, Cory; Parsons, Eric; Podgursky, Michael

2012-01-01

The specifics of how growth models should be constructed and used to evaluate schools and teachers is a topic of lively policy debate in states and school districts nationwide. In this paper we take up the question of model choice and examine three competing approaches. The first approach, reflected in the popular student growth percentiles (SGPs)…

A New Approach to Managing the Army Selective Reenlistment Bonus. Technical Report 634.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haber, Sheldon E.; And Others

In this study, a theoretical model of profit maximization was developed in which the Selective Reenlistment Bonus (SRB) is treated as a wage premium payable to military personnel who are more productive, more costly to recruit and train, and less likely to continue in the Army in the absence of the SRB. Empirical estimation of the model is based…

Multi-scale Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida) nest/roost habitat selection in Arizona and a comparison with single-scale modeling results

Treesearch

Brad C. Timm; Kevin McGarigal; Samuel A. Cushman; Joseph L. Ganey

2016-01-01

Efficacy of future habitat selection studies will benefit by taking a multi-scale approach. In addition to potentially providing increased explanatory power and predictive capacity, multi-scale habitat models enhance our understanding of the scales at which species respond to their environment, which is critical knowledge required to implement effective...

Using constraints and their value for optimization of large ODE systems

PubMed Central

Domijan, Mirela; Rand, David A.

2015-01-01

We provide analytical tools to facilitate a rigorous assessment of the quality and value of the fit of a complex model to data. We use this to provide approaches to model fitting, parameter estimation, the design of optimization functions and experimental optimization. This is in the context where multiple constraints are used to select or optimize a large model defined by differential equations. We illustrate the approach using models of circadian clocks and the NF-κB signalling system. PMID:25673300

Medical student selection and society: Lessons we learned from sociological theories.

PubMed

Yaghmaei, Minoo; Yazdani, Shahram; Ahmady, Soleiman

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to show the interaction between the society, applicants and medical schools in terms of medical student selection. In this study, the trends to implement social factors in the selection process were highlighted. These social factors were explored through functionalism and conflict theories, each focusing on different categories of social factors. While functionalist theorists pay attention to diversity in the selection process, conflict theorists highlight the importance of socio-economic class. Although both theories believe in sorting, their different views are reflected in their sorting strategies. Both theories emphasize the importance of the person-society relationship in motivation to enter university. Furthermore, the impacts of social goals on the selection policies are derived from both theories. Theories in the sociology of education offer an approach to student selection that acknowledges and supports complexity, plurality of approaches and innovative means of selection. Medical student selection does not solely focus on the individual assessment and qualification, but it focuses on a social and collective process, which includes all the influences and interactions between the medical schools and the society. Sociological perspective of medical student selection proposes a model that envelops the individual and the society. In this model, the selection methods should meet the criteria of merit at the individual level, while the selection policies should aim at the society goals at the institutional level.

Current modeling practice may lead to falsely high benchmark dose estimates.

PubMed

Ringblom, Joakim; Johanson, Gunnar; Öberg, Mattias

2014-07-01

Benchmark dose (BMD) modeling is increasingly used as the preferred approach to define the point-of-departure for health risk assessment of chemicals. As data are inherently variable, there is always a risk to select a model that defines a lower confidence bound of the BMD (BMDL) that, contrary to expected, exceeds the true BMD. The aim of this study was to investigate how often and under what circumstances such anomalies occur under current modeling practice. Continuous data were generated from a realistic dose-effect curve by Monte Carlo simulations using four dose groups and a set of five different dose placement scenarios, group sizes between 5 and 50 animals and coefficients of variations of 5-15%. The BMD calculations were conducted using nested exponential models, as most BMD software use nested approaches. "Non-protective" BMDLs (higher than true BMD) were frequently observed, in some scenarios reaching 80%. The phenomenon was mainly related to the selection of the non-sigmoidal exponential model (Effect=a·e(b)(·dose)). In conclusion, non-sigmoid models should be used with caution as it may underestimate the risk, illustrating that awareness of the model selection process and sound identification of the point-of-departure is vital for health risk assessment. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combined universal and selective prevention for adolescent alcohol use: a cluster randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Teesson, M; Newton, N C; Slade, T; Carragher, N; Barrett, E L; Champion, K E; Kelly, E V; Nair, N K; Stapinski, L A; Conrod, P J

2017-07-01

No existing models of alcohol prevention concurrently adopt universal and selective approaches. This study aims to evaluate the first combined universal and selective approach to alcohol prevention. A total of 26 Australian schools with 2190 students (mean age: 13.3 years) were randomized to receive: universal prevention (Climate Schools); selective prevention (Preventure); combined prevention (Climate Schools and Preventure; CAP); or health education as usual (control). Primary outcomes were alcohol use, binge drinking and alcohol-related harms at 6, 12 and 24 months. Climate, Preventure and CAP students demonstrated significantly lower growth in their likelihood to drink and binge drink, relative to controls over 24 months. Preventure students displayed significantly lower growth in their likelihood to experience alcohol harms, relative to controls. While adolescents in both the CAP and Climate groups demonstrated slower growth in drinking compared with adolescents in the control group over the 2-year study period, CAP adolescents demonstrated faster growth in drinking compared with Climate adolescents. Findings support universal, selective and combined approaches to alcohol prevention. Particularly novel are the findings of no advantage of the combined approach over universal or selective prevention alone.

Use of a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model to selected ion flow tube mass spectrometry (SIFT-MS) analysis of exhaled breath to predict the efficacy of dialysis: a pilot study.

PubMed

Wang, Maggie Haitian; Chong, Ka Chun; Storer, Malina; Pickering, John W; Endre, Zoltan H; Lau, Steven Yf; Kwok, Chloe; Lai, Maria; Chung, Hau Yin; Ying Zee, Benny Chung

2016-09-28

Selected ion flow tube-mass spectrometry (SIFT-MS) provides rapid, non-invasive measurements of a full-mass scan of volatile compounds in exhaled breath. Although various studies have suggested that breath metabolites may be indicators of human disease status, many of these studies have included few breath samples and large numbers of compounds, limiting their power to detect significant metabolites. This study employed a least absolute shrinkage and selective operator (LASSO) approach to SIFT-MS data of breath samples to preliminarily evaluate the ability of exhaled breath findings to monitor the efficacy of dialysis in hemodialysis patients. A process of model building and validation showed that blood creatinine and urea concentrations could be accurately predicted by LASSO-selected masses. Using various precursors, the LASSO models were able to predict creatinine and urea concentrations with high adjusted R-square (>80%) values. The correlation between actual concentrations and concentrations predicted by the LASSO model (using precursor H 3 O + ) was high (Pearson correlation coefficient  =  0.96). Moreover, use of full mass scan data provided a better prediction than compounds from selected ion mode. These findings warrant further investigations in larger patient cohorts. By employing a more powerful statistical approach to predict disease outcomes, breath analysis using SIFT-MS technology could be applicable in future to daily medical diagnoses.

Pesticide fate at regional scale: Development of an integrated model approach and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herbst, M.; Hardelauf, H.; Harms, R.; Vanderborght, J.; Vereecken, H.

As a result of agricultural practice many soils and aquifers are contaminated with pesticides. In order to quantify the side-effects of these anthropogenic impacts on groundwater quality at regional scale, a process-based, integrated model approach was developed. The Richards’ equation based numerical model TRACE calculates the three-dimensional saturated/unsaturated water flow. For the modeling of regional scale pesticide transport we linked TRACE with the plant module SUCROS and with 3DLEWASTE, a hybrid Lagrangian/Eulerian approach to solve the convection/dispersion equation. We used measurements, standard methods like pedotransfer-functions or parameters from literature to derive the model input for the process model. A first-step application of TRACE/3DLEWASTE to the 20 km 2 test area ‘Zwischenscholle’ for the period 1983-1993 reveals the behaviour of the pesticide isoproturon. The selected test area is characterised by an intense agricultural use and shallow groundwater, resulting in a high vulnerability of the groundwater to pesticide contamination. The model results stress the importance of the unsaturated zone for the occurrence of pesticides in groundwater. Remarkable isoproturon concentrations in groundwater are predicted for locations with thin layered and permeable soils. For four selected locations we used measured piezometric heads to validate predicted groundwater levels. In general, the model results are consistent and reasonable. Thus the developed integrated model approach is seen as a promising tool for the quantification of the agricultural practice impact on groundwater quality.

[Treatment of selective mutism].

PubMed

Melfsen, Siebke; Warnke, Andreas

2007-11-01

Selective mutism is a communication disorder of childhood in which the child does not speak in specific social situations despite the ability to speak in other situations. A literature review was completed in order to provide practical guidelines for the assessment and treatment of children with selective mutism. There are many different behavioral approaches in the treatment of this disorder, e.g. contingency management, shaping, stimulus fading, escape-avoidance, self-modeling, learning theory approaches. A clearer diagnostic understanding of the disorder as part of anxiety or oppositional disorders needs to be realized prior to generalize an effective treatment for this disorder.

Optoelectronic simulation of GaAs solar cells with angularly selective filters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kraus, Tobias, E-mail: tobias.kraus@ise.fraunhofer.de; Höhn, Oliver; Hauser, Hubert

We discuss the influence of angularly selective filters on thin film gallium arsenide solar cells. For this reason, the detailed balance model was refined to fit our needs with respect to Auger recombination, reflection, transmission, and realistic absorption. For calculating real systems, an approach was made to include optical effects of angularly selective filters into electron-hole dynamic equations implemented in PC1D, a one dimensional solar cell calculation tool. With this approach, we find a relative V{sub oc} increase of 5% for an idealized 100 nm GaAs cell, including Auger recombination.

A Novel Group Decision-Making Method Based on Sensor Data and Fuzzy Information.

PubMed

Bai, Yu-Ting; Zhang, Bai-Hai; Wang, Xiao-Yi; Jin, Xue-Bo; Xu, Ji-Ping; Su, Ting-Li; Wang, Zhao-Yang

2016-10-28

Algal bloom is a typical phenomenon of the eutrophication of rivers and lakes and makes the water dirty and smelly. It is a serious threat to water security and public health. Most scholars studying solutions for this pollution have studied the principles of remediation approaches, but few have studied the decision-making and selection of the approaches. Existing research uses simplex decision-making information which is highly subjective and uses little of the data from water quality sensors. To utilize these data and solve the rational decision-making problem, a novel group decision-making method is proposed using the sensor data with fuzzy evaluation information. Firstly, the optimal similarity aggregation model of group opinions is built based on the modified similarity measurement of Vague values. Secondly, the approaches' ability to improve the water quality indexes is expressed using Vague evaluation methods. Thirdly, the water quality sensor data are analyzed to match the features of the alternative approaches with grey relational degrees. This allows the best remediation approach to be selected to meet the current water status. Finally, the selection model is applied to the remediation of algal bloom in lakes. The results show this method's rationality and feasibility when using different data from different sources.

Variable selection for marginal longitudinal generalized linear models.

PubMed

Cantoni, Eva; Flemming, Joanna Mills; Ronchetti, Elvezio

2005-06-01

Variable selection is an essential part of any statistical analysis and yet has been somewhat neglected in the context of longitudinal data analysis. In this article, we propose a generalized version of Mallows's C(p) (GC(p)) suitable for use with both parametric and nonparametric models. GC(p) provides an estimate of a measure of model's adequacy for prediction. We examine its performance with popular marginal longitudinal models (fitted using GEE) and contrast results with what is typically done in practice: variable selection based on Wald-type or score-type tests. An application to real data further demonstrates the merits of our approach while at the same time emphasizing some important robust features inherent to GC(p).

Three-Dimensional Multiscale Modeling of Dendritic Spacing Selection During Al-Si Directional Solidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tourret, Damien; Clarke, Amy J.; Imhoff, Seth D.; Gibbs, Paul J.; Gibbs, John W.; Karma, Alain

2015-08-01

We present a three-dimensional extension of the multiscale dendritic needle network (DNN) model. This approach enables quantitative simulations of the unsteady dynamics of complex hierarchical networks in spatially extended dendritic arrays. We apply the model to directional solidification of Al-9.8 wt.%Si alloy and directly compare the model predictions with measurements from experiments with in situ x-ray imaging. We focus on the dynamical selection of primary spacings over a range of growth velocities, and the influence of sample geometry on the selection of spacings. Simulation results show good agreement with experiments. The computationally efficient DNN model opens new avenues for investigating the dynamics of large dendritic arrays at scales relevant to solidification experiments and processes.

Disentangling incentives effects of insurance coverage from adverse selection in the case of drug expenditure: a finite mixture approach.

PubMed

Munkin, Murat K; Trivedi, Pravin K

2010-09-01

This paper takes a finite mixture approach to model heterogeneity in incentive and selection effects of drug coverage on total drug expenditure among the Medicare elderly US population. Evidence is found that the positive drug expenditures of the elderly population can be decomposed into two groups different in the identified selection effects and interpreted as relatively healthy with lower average expenditures and relatively unhealthy with higher average expenditures, accounting for approximately 25 and 75% of the population, respectively. Adverse selection into drug insurance appears to be strong for the higher expenditure component and weak for the lower expenditure group. Copyright (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A class of stochastic optimization problems with one quadratic & several linear objective functions and extended portfolio selection model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiuping; Li, Jun

2002-09-01

In this paper a class of stochastic multiple-objective programming problems with one quadratic, several linear objective functions and linear constraints has been introduced. The former model is transformed into a deterministic multiple-objective nonlinear programming model by means of the introduction of random variables' expectation. The reference direction approach is used to deal with linear objectives and results in a linear parametric optimization formula with a single linear objective function. This objective function is combined with the quadratic function using the weighted sums. The quadratic problem is transformed into a linear (parametric) complementary problem, the basic formula for the proposed approach. The sufficient and necessary conditions for (properly, weakly) efficient solutions and some construction characteristics of (weakly) efficient solution sets are obtained. An interactive algorithm is proposed based on reference direction and weighted sums. Varying the parameter vector on the right-hand side of the model, the DM can freely search the efficient frontier with the model. An extended portfolio selection model is formed when liquidity is considered as another objective to be optimized besides expectation and risk. The interactive approach is illustrated with a practical example.

Rosetta comparative modeling for library design: Engineering alternative inducer specificity in a transcription factor.

PubMed

Jha, Ramesh K; Chakraborti, Subhendu; Kern, Theresa L; Fox, David T; Strauss, Charlie E M

2015-07-01

Structure-based rational mutagenesis for engineering protein functionality has been limited by the scarcity and difficulty of obtaining crystal structures of desired proteins. On the other hand, when high-throughput selection is possible, directed evolution-based approaches for gaining protein functionalities have been random and fortuitous with limited rationalization. We combine comparative modeling of dimer structures, ab initio loop reconstruction, and ligand docking to select positions for mutagenesis to create a library focused on the ligand-contacting residues. The rationally reduced library requirement enabled conservative control of the substitutions by oligonucleotide synthesis and bounding its size within practical transformation efficiencies (∼ 10(7) variants). This rational approach was successfully applied on an inducer-binding domain of an Acinetobacter transcription factor (TF), pobR, which shows high specificity for natural effector molecule, 4-hydroxy benzoate (4HB), but no native response to 3,4-dihydroxy benzoate (34DHB). Selection for mutants with high transcriptional induction by 34DHB was carried out at the single-cell level under flow cytometry (via green fluorescent protein expression under the control of pobR promoter). Critically, this selection protocol allows both selection for induction and rejection of constitutively active mutants. In addition to gain-of-function for 34DHB induction, the selected mutants also showed enhanced sensitivity and response for 4HB (native inducer) while no sensitivity was observed for a non-targeted but chemically similar molecule, 2-hydroxy benzoate (2HB). This is unique application of the Rosetta modeling protocols for library design to engineer a TF. Our approach extends applicability of the Rosetta redesign protocol into regimes without a priori precision structural information. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

No-Reference Image Quality Assessment by Wide-Perceptual-Domain Scorer Ensemble Method.

PubMed

Liu, Tsung-Jung; Liu, Kuan-Hsien

2018-03-01

A no-reference (NR) learning-based approach to assess image quality is presented in this paper. The devised features are extracted from wide perceptual domains, including brightness, contrast, color, distortion, and texture. These features are used to train a model (scorer) which can predict scores. The scorer selection algorithms are utilized to help simplify the proposed system. In the final stage, the ensemble method is used to combine the prediction results from selected scorers. Two multiple-scale versions of the proposed approach are also presented along with the single-scale one. They turn out to have better performances than the original single-scale method. Because of having features from five different domains at multiple image scales and using the outputs (scores) from selected score prediction models as features for multi-scale or cross-scale fusion (i.e., ensemble), the proposed NR image quality assessment models are robust with respect to more than 24 image distortion types. They also can be used on the evaluation of images with authentic distortions. The extensive experiments on three well-known and representative databases confirm the performance robustness of our proposed model.

Feature selection through validation and un-censoring of endovascular repair survival data for predicting the risk of re-intervention.

PubMed

Attallah, Omneya; Karthikesalingam, Alan; Holt, Peter J E; Thompson, Matthew M; Sayers, Rob; Bown, Matthew J; Choke, Eddie C; Ma, Xianghong

2017-08-03

Feature selection (FS) process is essential in the medical area as it reduces the effort and time needed for physicians to measure unnecessary features. Choosing useful variables is a difficult task with the presence of censoring which is the unique characteristic in survival analysis. Most survival FS methods depend on Cox's proportional hazard model; however, machine learning techniques (MLT) are preferred but not commonly used due to censoring. Techniques that have been proposed to adopt MLT to perform FS with survival data cannot be used with the high level of censoring. The researcher's previous publications proposed a technique to deal with the high level of censoring. It also used existing FS techniques to reduce dataset dimension. However, in this paper a new FS technique was proposed and combined with feature transformation and the proposed uncensoring approaches to select a reduced set of features and produce a stable predictive model. In this paper, a FS technique based on artificial neural network (ANN) MLT is proposed to deal with highly censored Endovascular Aortic Repair (EVAR). Survival data EVAR datasets were collected during 2004 to 2010 from two vascular centers in order to produce a final stable model. They contain almost 91% of censored patients. The proposed approach used a wrapper FS method with ANN to select a reduced subset of features that predict the risk of EVAR re-intervention after 5 years to patients from two different centers located in the United Kingdom, to allow it to be potentially applied to cross-centers predictions. The proposed model is compared with the two popular FS techniques; Akaike and Bayesian information criteria (AIC, BIC) that are used with Cox's model. The final model outperforms other methods in distinguishing the high and low risk groups; as they both have concordance index and estimated AUC better than the Cox's model based on AIC, BIC, Lasso, and SCAD approaches. These models have p-values lower than 0.05, meaning that patients with different risk groups can be separated significantly and those who would need re-intervention can be correctly predicted. The proposed approach will save time and effort made by physicians to collect unnecessary variables. The final reduced model was able to predict the long-term risk of aortic complications after EVAR. This predictive model can help clinicians decide patients' future observation plan.

Aerosol-type retrieval and uncertainty quantification from OMI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauppi, Anu; Kolmonen, Pekka; Laine, Marko; Tamminen, Johanna

2017-11-01

We discuss uncertainty quantification for aerosol-type selection in satellite-based atmospheric aerosol retrieval. The retrieval procedure uses precalculated aerosol microphysical models stored in look-up tables (LUTs) and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectral reflectance measurements to solve the aerosol characteristics. The forward model approximations cause systematic differences between the modelled and observed reflectance. Acknowledging this model discrepancy as a source of uncertainty allows us to produce more realistic uncertainty estimates and assists the selection of the most appropriate LUTs for each individual retrieval.This paper focuses on the aerosol microphysical model selection and characterisation of uncertainty in the retrieved aerosol type and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The concept of model evidence is used as a tool for model comparison. The method is based on Bayesian inference approach, in which all uncertainties are described as a posterior probability distribution. When there is no single best-matching aerosol microphysical model, we use a statistical technique based on Bayesian model averaging to combine AOD posterior probability densities of the best-fitting models to obtain an averaged AOD estimate. We also determine the shared evidence of the best-matching models of a certain main aerosol type in order to quantify how plausible it is that it represents the underlying atmospheric aerosol conditions.The developed method is applied to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements using a multiwavelength approach for retrieving the aerosol type and AOD estimate with uncertainty quantification for cloud-free over-land pixels. Several larger pixel set areas were studied in order to investigate the robustness of the developed method. We evaluated the retrieved AOD by comparison with ground-based measurements at example sites. We found that the uncertainty of AOD expressed by posterior probability distribution reflects the difficulty in model selection. The posterior probability distribution can provide a comprehensive characterisation of the uncertainty in this kind of problem for aerosol-type selection. As a result, the proposed method can account for the model error and also include the model selection uncertainty in the total uncertainty budget.

A closer look at self-pay segmentation.

PubMed

Franklin, David; Ingramn, Coy; Levin, Steve

2010-09-01

Successful scoring approaches for self-pay accounts have three common characteristics: Thoughtful selection of a scoring model and segmentation approach. Deployment of workflows (either segmented or account prioritization) consistent with a hospital's capabilities and the likelihood of collection. Ongoing performance monitoring.

Using "big data" to optimally model hydrology and water quality across expansive regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roehl, E.A.; Cook, J.B.; Conrads, P.A.

2009-01-01

This paper describes a new divide and conquer approach that leverages big environmental data, utilizing all available categorical and time-series data without subjectivity, to empirically model hydrologic and water-quality behaviors across expansive regions. The approach decomposes large, intractable problems into smaller ones that are optimally solved; decomposes complex signals into behavioral components that are easier to model with "sub- models"; and employs a sequence of numerically optimizing algorithms that include time-series clustering, nonlinear, multivariate sensitivity analysis and predictive modeling using multi-layer perceptron artificial neural networks, and classification for selecting the best sub-models to make predictions at new sites. This approach has many advantages over traditional modeling approaches, including being faster and less expensive, more comprehensive in its use of available data, and more accurate in representing a system's physical processes. This paper describes the application of the approach to model groundwater levels in Florida, stream temperatures across Western Oregon and Wisconsin, and water depths in the Florida Everglades. ?? 2009 ASCE.

Dynamics and control of quadcopter using linear model predictive control approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, M.; Okasha, M.; Idres, M. M.

2017-12-01

This paper investigates the dynamics and control of a quadcopter using the Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach. The dynamic model is of high fidelity and nonlinear, with six degrees of freedom that include disturbances and model uncertainties. The control approach is developed based on MPC to track different reference trajectories ranging from simple ones such as circular to complex helical trajectories. In this control technique, a linearized model is derived and the receding horizon method is applied to generate the optimal control sequence. Although MPC is computer expensive, it is highly effective to deal with the different types of nonlinearities and constraints such as actuators’ saturation and model uncertainties. The MPC parameters (control and prediction horizons) are selected by trial-and-error approach. Several simulation scenarios are performed to examine and evaluate the performance of the proposed control approach using MATLAB and Simulink environment. Simulation results show that this control approach is highly effective to track a given reference trajectory.

Fermentation process tracking through enhanced spectral calibration modeling.

PubMed

Triadaphillou, Sophia; Martin, Elaine; Montague, Gary; Norden, Alison; Jeffkins, Paul; Stimpson, Sarah

2007-06-15

The FDA process analytical technology (PAT) initiative will materialize in a significant increase in the number of installations of spectroscopic instrumentation. However, to attain the greatest benefit from the data generated, there is a need for calibration procedures that extract the maximum information content. For example, in fermentation processes, the interpretation of the resulting spectra is challenging as a consequence of the large number of wavelengths recorded, the underlying correlation structure that is evident between the wavelengths and the impact of the measurement environment. Approaches to the development of calibration models have been based on the application of partial least squares (PLS) either to the full spectral signature or to a subset of wavelengths. This paper presents a new approach to calibration modeling that combines a wavelength selection procedure, spectral window selection (SWS), where windows of wavelengths are automatically selected which are subsequently used as the basis of the calibration model. However, due to the non-uniqueness of the windows selected when the algorithm is executed repeatedly, multiple models are constructed and these are then combined using stacking thereby increasing the robustness of the final calibration model. The methodology is applied to data generated during the monitoring of broth concentrations in an industrial fermentation process from on-line near-infrared (NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) spectrometers. It is shown that the proposed calibration modeling procedure outperforms traditional calibration procedures, as well as enabling the identification of the critical regions of the spectra with regard to the fermentation process.

A Cross-Validation Approach to Approximate Basis Function Selection of the Stall Flutter Response of a Rectangular Wing in a Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kukreja, Sunil L.; Vio, Gareth A.; Andrianne, Thomas; azak, Norizham Abudl; Dimitriadis, Grigorios

2012-01-01

The stall flutter response of a rectangular wing in a low speed wind tunnel is modelled using a nonlinear difference equation description. Static and dynamic tests are used to select a suitable model structure and basis function. Bifurcation criteria such as the Hopf condition and vibration amplitude variation with airspeed were used to ensure the model was representative of experimentally measured stall flutter phenomena. Dynamic test data were used to estimate model parameters and estimate an approximate basis function.

Model selection criterion in survival analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karabey, Uǧur; Tutkun, Nihal Ata

2017-07-01

Survival analysis deals with time until occurrence of an event of interest such as death, recurrence of an illness, the failure of an equipment or divorce. There are various survival models with semi-parametric or parametric approaches used in medical, natural or social sciences. The decision on the most appropriate model for the data is an important point of the analysis. In literature Akaike information criteria or Bayesian information criteria are used to select among nested models. In this study,the behavior of these information criterion is discussed for a real data set.

Optimal Tuner Selection for Kalman-Filter-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

2011-01-01

An emerging approach in the field of aircraft engine controls and system health management is the inclusion of real-time, onboard models for the inflight estimation of engine performance variations. This technology, typically based on Kalman-filter concepts, enables the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters that can be directly utilized by controls, prognostics, and health-management applications. A challenge that complicates this practice is the fact that an aircraft engine s performance is affected by its level of degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters such as efficiencies and flow capacities related to each major engine module. Through Kalman-filter-based estimation techniques, the level of engine performance degradation can be estimated, given that there are at least as many sensors as health parameters to be estimated. However, in an aircraft engine, the number of sensors available is typically less than the number of health parameters, presenting an under-determined estimation problem. A common approach to address this shortcoming is to estimate a subset of the health parameters, referred to as model tuning parameters. The problem/objective is to optimally select the model tuning parameters to minimize Kalman-filterbased estimation error. A tuner selection technique has been developed that specifically addresses the under-determined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multi-variable iterative search routine that seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error of the Kalman filter. This approach can significantly reduce the error in onboard aircraft engine parameter estimation applications such as model-based diagnostic, controls, and life usage calculations. The advantage of the innovation is the significant reduction in estimation errors that it can provide relative to the conventional approach of selecting a subset of health parameters to serve as the model tuning parameter vector. Because this technique needs only to be performed during the system design process, it places no additional computation burden on the onboard Kalman filter implementation. The technique has been developed for aircraft engine onboard estimation applications, as this application typically presents an under-determined estimation problem. However, this generic technique could be applied to other industries using gas turbine engine technology.

Automation of Endmember Pixel Selection in SEBAL/METRIC Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattarai, N.; Quackenbush, L. J.; Im, J.; Shaw, S. B.

2015-12-01

The commonly applied surface energy balance for land (SEBAL) and its variant, mapping evapotranspiration (ET) at high resolution with internalized calibration (METRIC) models require manual selection of endmember (i.e. hot and cold) pixels to calibrate sensible heat flux. Current approaches for automating this process are based on statistical methods and do not appear to be robust under varying climate conditions and seasons. In this paper, we introduce a new approach based on simple machine learning tools and search algorithms that provides an automatic and time efficient way of identifying endmember pixels for use in these models. The fully automated models were applied on over 100 cloud-free Landsat images with each image covering several eddy covariance flux sites in Florida and Oklahoma. Observed land surface temperatures at automatically identified hot and cold pixels were within 0.5% of those from pixels manually identified by an experienced operator (coefficient of determination, R2, ≥ 0.92, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE, ≥ 0.92, and root mean squared error, RMSE, ≤ 1.67 K). Daily ET estimates derived from the automated SEBAL and METRIC models were in good agreement with their manual counterparts (e.g., NSE ≥ 0.91 and RMSE ≤ 0.35 mm day-1). Automated and manual pixel selection resulted in similar estimates of observed ET across all sites. The proposed approach should reduce time demands for applying SEBAL/METRIC models and allow for their more widespread and frequent use. This automation can also reduce potential bias that could be introduced by an inexperienced operator and extend the domain of the models to new users.

Using local multiplicity to improve effect estimation from a hypothesis-generating pharmacogenetics study.

PubMed

Zou, W; Ouyang, H

2016-02-01

We propose a multiple estimation adjustment (MEA) method to correct effect overestimation due to selection bias from a hypothesis-generating study (HGS) in pharmacogenetics. MEA uses a hierarchical Bayesian approach to model individual effect estimates from maximal likelihood estimation (MLE) in a region jointly and shrinks them toward the regional effect. Unlike many methods that model a fixed selection scheme, MEA capitalizes on local multiplicity independent of selection. We compared mean square errors (MSEs) in simulated HGSs from naive MLE, MEA and a conditional likelihood adjustment (CLA) method that model threshold selection bias. We observed that MEA effectively reduced MSE from MLE on null effects with or without selection, and had a clear advantage over CLA on extreme MLE estimates from null effects under lenient threshold selection in small samples, which are common among 'top' associations from a pharmacogenetics HGS.

The modelling routes for the chemical vapour deposition process: application to Si 1- xGe x deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pons, M.; Bernard, C.; Rouch, H.; Madar, R.

1995-10-01

The purpose of this article is to present the modelling routes for the chemical vapour deposition process with a special emphasis on mass transport models with near local thermochemical equilibrium imposed in the gas-phase and at the deposition surface. The theoretical problems arising from the linking of the two selected approaches, thermodynamics and mass transport, are shown and a solution procedure is proposed. As an illustration, selected results of thermodynamic and mass transport analysis and of the coupled approach showed that, for the deposition of Si 1- xGe x solid solution at 1300 K (system SiGeClHAr), the thermodynamic heterogeneous stability of the reactive gases and the thermal diffusion led to the germanium depletion of the deposit.

SOME USES OF MODELS OF QUANTITATIVE GENETIC SELECTION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE.

PubMed

Weight, Michael D; Harpending, Henry

2017-01-01

The theory of selection of quantitative traits is widely used in evolutionary biology, agriculture and other related fields. The fundamental model known as the breeder's equation is simple, robust over short time scales, and it is often possible to estimate plausible parameters. In this paper it is suggested that the results of this model provide useful yardsticks for the description of social traits and the evaluation of transmission models. The differences on a standard personality test between samples of Old Order Amish and Indiana rural young men from the same county and the decline of homicide in Medieval Europe are used as illustrative examples of the overall approach. It is shown that the decline of homicide is unremarkable under a threshold model while the differences between rural Amish and non-Amish young men are too large to be a plausible outcome of simple genetic selection in which assortative mating by affiliation is equivalent to truncation selection.

Random forest feature selection approach for image segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefkovits, László; Lefkovits, Szidónia; Emerich, Simina; Vaida, Mircea Florin

2017-03-01

In the field of image segmentation, discriminative models have shown promising performance. Generally, every such model begins with the extraction of numerous features from annotated images. Most authors create their discriminative model by using many features without using any selection criteria. A more reliable model can be built by using a framework that selects the important variables, from the point of view of the classification, and eliminates the unimportant once. In this article we present a framework for feature selection and data dimensionality reduction. The methodology is built around the random forest (RF) algorithm and its variable importance evaluation. In order to deal with datasets so large as to be practically unmanageable, we propose an algorithm based on RF that reduces the dimension of the database by eliminating irrelevant features. Furthermore, this framework is applied to optimize our discriminative model for brain tumor segmentation.

A Heckman selection model for the safety analysis of signalized intersections

PubMed Central

Wong, S. C.; Zhu, Feng; Pei, Xin; Huang, Helai; Liu, Youjun

2017-01-01

Purpose The objective of this paper is to provide a new method for estimating crash rate and severity simultaneously. Methods This study explores a Heckman selection model of the crash rate and severity simultaneously at different levels and a two-step procedure is used to investigate the crash rate and severity levels. The first step uses a probit regression model to determine the sample selection process, and the second step develops a multiple regression model to simultaneously evaluate the crash rate and severity for slight injury/kill or serious injury (KSI), respectively. The model uses 555 observations from 262 signalized intersections in the Hong Kong metropolitan area, integrated with information on the traffic flow, geometric road design, road environment, traffic control and any crashes that occurred during two years. Results The results of the proposed two-step Heckman selection model illustrate the necessity of different crash rates for different crash severity levels. Conclusions A comparison with the existing approaches suggests that the Heckman selection model offers an efficient and convenient alternative method for evaluating the safety performance at signalized intersections. PMID:28732050

Automating an integrated spatial data-mining model for landfill site selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abujayyab, Sohaib K. M.; Ahamad, Mohd Sanusi S.; Yahya, Ahmad Shukri; Ahmad, Siti Zubaidah; Aziz, Hamidi Abdul

2017-10-01

An integrated programming environment represents a robust approach to building a valid model for landfill site selection. One of the main challenges in the integrated model is the complicated processing and modelling due to the programming stages and several limitations. An automation process helps avoid the limitations and improve the interoperability between integrated programming environments. This work targets the automation of a spatial data-mining model for landfill site selection by integrating between spatial programming environment (Python-ArcGIS) and non-spatial environment (MATLAB). The model was constructed using neural networks and is divided into nine stages distributed between Matlab and Python-ArcGIS. A case study was taken from the north part of Peninsular Malaysia. 22 criteria were selected to utilise as input data and to build the training and testing datasets. The outcomes show a high-performance accuracy percentage of 98.2% in the testing dataset using 10-fold cross validation. The automated spatial data mining model provides a solid platform for decision makers to performing landfill site selection and planning operations on a regional scale.

Decision Support for Personalized Cloud Service Selection through Multi-Attribute Trustworthiness Evaluation

PubMed Central

Ding, Shuai; Xia, Chen-Yi; Zhou, Kai-Le; Yang, Shan-Lin; Shang, Jennifer S.

2014-01-01

Facing a customer market with rising demands for cloud service dependability and security, trustworthiness evaluation techniques are becoming essential to cloud service selection. But these methods are out of the reach to most customers as they require considerable expertise. Additionally, since the cloud service evaluation is often a costly and time-consuming process, it is not practical to measure trustworthy attributes of all candidates for each customer. Many existing models cannot easily deal with cloud services which have very few historical records. In this paper, we propose a novel service selection approach in which the missing value prediction and the multi-attribute trustworthiness evaluation are commonly taken into account. By simply collecting limited historical records, the current approach is able to support the personalized trustworthy service selection. The experimental results also show that our approach performs much better than other competing ones with respect to the customer preference and expectation in trustworthiness assessment. PMID:24972237

Decision support for personalized cloud service selection through multi-attribute trustworthiness evaluation.

PubMed

Ding, Shuai; Xia, Cheng-Yi; Xia, Chen-Yi; Zhou, Kai-Le; Yang, Shan-Lin; Shang, Jennifer S

2014-01-01

Facing a customer market with rising demands for cloud service dependability and security, trustworthiness evaluation techniques are becoming essential to cloud service selection. But these methods are out of the reach to most customers as they require considerable expertise. Additionally, since the cloud service evaluation is often a costly and time-consuming process, it is not practical to measure trustworthy attributes of all candidates for each customer. Many existing models cannot easily deal with cloud services which have very few historical records. In this paper, we propose a novel service selection approach in which the missing value prediction and the multi-attribute trustworthiness evaluation are commonly taken into account. By simply collecting limited historical records, the current approach is able to support the personalized trustworthy service selection. The experimental results also show that our approach performs much better than other competing ones with respect to the customer preference and expectation in trustworthiness assessment.

A Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming model for daily streamflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan

2017-06-01

Genetic programming (GP) is able to systematically explore alternative model structures of different accuracy and complexity from observed input and output data. The effectiveness of GP in hydrological system identification has been recognized in recent studies. However, selecting a parsimonious (accurate and simple) model from such alternatives still remains a question. This paper proposes a Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming (MA-MGGP) approach to develop a parsimonious model for single-station streamflow prediction. The three main components of the approach that take us from observed data to a validated model are: (1) data pre-processing, (2) system identification and (3) system simplification. The data pre-processing ingredient uses a simple moving average filter to diminish the lagged prediction effect of stand-alone data-driven models. The multigene ingredient of the model tends to identify the underlying nonlinear system with expressions simpler than classical monolithic GP and, eventually simplification component exploits Pareto front plot to select a parsimonious model through an interactive complexity-efficiency trade-off. The approach was tested using the daily streamflow records from a station on Senoz Stream, Turkey. Comparing to the efficiency results of stand-alone GP, MGGP, and conventional multi linear regression prediction models as benchmarks, the proposed Pareto-optimal MA-MGGP model put forward a parsimonious solution, which has a noteworthy importance of being applied in practice. In addition, the approach allows the user to enter human insight into the problem to examine evolved models and pick the best performing programs out for further analysis.

Multivariate Bayesian variable selection exploiting dependence structure among outcomes: Application to air pollution effects on DNA methylation.

PubMed

Lee, Kyu Ha; Tadesse, Mahlet G; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Schwartz, Joel; Coull, Brent A

2017-03-01

The analysis of multiple outcomes is becoming increasingly common in modern biomedical studies. It is well-known that joint statistical models for multiple outcomes are more flexible and more powerful than fitting a separate model for each outcome; they yield more powerful tests of exposure or treatment effects by taking into account the dependence among outcomes and pooling evidence across outcomes. It is, however, unlikely that all outcomes are related to the same subset of covariates. Therefore, there is interest in identifying exposures or treatments associated with particular outcomes, which we term outcome-specific variable selection. In this work, we propose a variable selection approach for multivariate normal responses that incorporates not only information on the mean model, but also information on the variance-covariance structure of the outcomes. The approach effectively leverages evidence from all correlated outcomes to estimate the effect of a particular covariate on a given outcome. To implement this strategy, we develop a Bayesian method that builds a multivariate prior for the variable selection indicators based on the variance-covariance of the outcomes. We show via simulation that the proposed variable selection strategy can boost power to detect subtle effects without increasing the probability of false discoveries. We apply the approach to the Normative Aging Study (NAS) epigenetic data and identify a subset of five genes in the asthma pathway for which gene-specific DNA methylations are associated with exposures to either black carbon, a marker of traffic pollution, or sulfate, a marker of particles generated by power plants. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

MODELS AND METHODS FOR PETROLEUM HYDROCARBON RISK ASSESSMENT: ONSITE, LUSTRISK, AND HSSM

EPA Science Inventory

U.S. EPA has developed three tiers of models for analysis of fuel releases from underground storage tank (UST) systems: 1) OnSite; 2) LUSTRisk, and 3) the Hydrocarbon Spill Screening Model (HSSM). The tiered approach to modeling allows users to select a model based upon the amoun...

An Approach for Web Service Selection Based on Confidence Level of Decision Maker

PubMed Central

Khezrian, Mojtaba; Jahan, Ali; Wan Kadir, Wan Mohd Nasir; Ibrahim, Suhaimi

2014-01-01

Web services today are among the most widely used groups for Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). Service selection is one of the most significant current discussions in SOA, which evaluates discovered services and chooses the best candidate from them. Although a majority of service selection techniques apply Quality of Service (QoS), the behaviour of QoS-based service selection leads to service selection problems in Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). In the existing works, the confidence level of decision makers is neglected and does not consider their expertise in assessing Web services. In this paper, we employ the VIKOR (VIšekriterijumskoKOmpromisnoRangiranje) method, which is absent in the literature for service selection, but is well-known in other research. We propose a QoS-based approach that deals with service selection by applying VIKOR with improvement of features. This research determines the weights of criteria based on user preference and accounts for the confidence level of decision makers. The proposed approach is illustrated by an example in order to demonstrate and validate the model. The results of this research may facilitate service consumers to attain a more efficient decision when selecting the appropriate service. PMID:24897426

Identifying taxonomic and functional surrogates for spring biodiversity conservation.

PubMed

Jyväsjärvi, Jussi; Virtanen, Risto; Ilmonen, Jari; Paasivirta, Lauri; Muotka, Timo

2018-02-27

Surrogate approaches are widely used to estimate overall taxonomic diversity for conservation planning. Surrogate taxa are frequently selected based on rarity or charisma, whereas selection through statistical modeling has been applied rarely. We used boosted-regression-tree models (BRT) fitted to biological data from 165 springs to identify bryophyte and invertebrate surrogates for taxonomic and functional diversity of boreal springs. We focused on these 2 groups because they are well known and abundant in most boreal springs. The best indicators of taxonomic versus functional diversity differed. The bryophyte Bryum weigelii and the chironomid larva Paratrichocladius skirwithensis best indicated taxonomic diversity, whereas the isopod Asellus aquaticus and the chironomid Macropelopia spp. were the best surrogates of functional diversity. In a scoring algorithm for priority-site selection, taxonomic surrogates performed only slightly better than random selection for all spring-dwelling taxa, but they were very effective in representing spring specialists, providing a distinct improvement over random solutions. However, the surrogates for taxonomic diversity represented functional diversity poorly and vice versa. When combined with cross-taxon complementarity analyses, surrogate selection based on statistical modeling provides a promising approach for identifying groundwater-dependent ecosystems of special conservation value, a key requirement of the EU Water Framework Directive. © 2018 Society for Conservation Biology.

Adaptive Prior Variance Calibration in the Bayesian Continual Reassessment Method

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jin; Braun, Thomas M.; Taylor, Jeremy M.G.

2012-01-01

Use of the Continual Reassessment Method (CRM) and other model-based approaches to design in Phase I clinical trials has increased due to the ability of the CRM to identify the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) better than the 3+3 method. However, the CRM can be sensitive to the variance selected for the prior distribution of the model parameter, especially when a small number of patients are enrolled. While methods have emerged to adaptively select skeletons and to calibrate the prior variance only at the beginning of a trial, there has not been any approach developed to adaptively calibrate the prior variance throughout a trial. We propose three systematic approaches to adaptively calibrate the prior variance during a trial and compare them via simulation to methods proposed to calibrate the variance at the beginning of a trial. PMID:22987660

Variable selection for distribution-free models for longitudinal zero-inflated count responses.

PubMed

Chen, Tian; Wu, Pan; Tang, Wan; Zhang, Hui; Feng, Changyong; Kowalski, Jeanne; Tu, Xin M

2016-07-20

Zero-inflated count outcomes arise quite often in research and practice. Parametric models such as the zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial are widely used to model such responses. Like most parametric models, they are quite sensitive to departures from assumed distributions. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide distribution-free, or semi-parametric, alternatives. These methods extend the generalized estimating equations to provide robust inference for population mixtures defined by zero-inflated count outcomes. In this paper, we propose methods to extend smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD)-based variable selection methods to these new models. Variable selection has been gaining popularity in modern clinical research studies, as determining differential treatment effects of interventions for different subgroups has become the norm, rather the exception, in the era of patent-centered outcome research. Such moderation analysis in general creates many explanatory variables in regression analysis, and the advantages of SCAD-based methods over their traditional counterparts render them a great choice for addressing this important and timely issues in clinical research. We illustrate the proposed approach with both simulated and real study data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Situational Effects May Account for Gain Scores in Cognitive Ability Testing: A Longitudinal SEM Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matton, Nadine; Vautier, Stephane; Raufaste, Eric

2009-01-01

Mean gain scores for cognitive ability tests between two sessions in a selection setting are now a robust finding, yet not fully understood. Many authors do not attribute such gain scores to an increase in the target abilities. Our approach consists of testing a longitudinal SEM model suitable to this view. We propose to model the scores' changes…

Phasor Domain Steady-State Modeling and Design of the DC–DC Modular Multilevel Converter

DOE PAGES

Yang, Heng; Qin, Jiangchao; Debnath, Suman; ...

2016-01-06

The DC-DC Modular Multilevel Converter (MMC), which originated from the AC-DC MMC, is an attractive converter topology for interconnection of medium-/high-voltage DC grids. This paper presents design considerations for the DC-DC MMC to achieve high efficiency and reduced component sizes. A steady-state mathematical model of the DC-DC MMC in the phasor-domain is developed. Based on the developed model, a design approach is proposed to size the components and to select the operating frequency of the converter to satisfy a set of design constraints while achieving high efficiency. The design approach includes sizing of the arm inductor, Sub-Module (SM) capacitor, andmore » phase filtering inductor along with the selection of AC operating frequency of the converter. The accuracy of the developed model and the effectiveness of the design approach are validated based on the simulation studies in the PSCAD/EMTDC software environment. The analysis and developments of this paper can be used as a guideline for design of the DC-DC MMC.« less

When to Intervene in Selective Mutism: The Multimodal Treatment of a Case of Persistent Selective Mutism.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powell, Shawn; Dalley, Mahlono

1995-01-01

An identification and treatment model differentiating transient mutism from persistent selective mutism is proposed. The case study of a six-year-old girl is presented, who was treated with a multimodal approach combining behavioral techniques with play therapy and family involvement. At posttreatment and follow-up, she was talking in a manner…

Effects of Selection and Training on Unit-Level Performance over Time: A Latent Growth Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Iddekinge, Chad H.; Ferris, Gerald R.; Perrewe, Pamela L.; Perryman, Alexa A.; Blass, Fred R.; Heetderks, Thomas D.

2009-01-01

Surprisingly few data exist concerning whether and how utilization of job-related selection and training procedures affects different aspects of unit or organizational performance over time. The authors used longitudinal data from a large fast-food organization (N = 861 units) to examine how change in use of selection and training relates to…

77 FR 13607 - Agency Forms Undergoing Paperwork Reduction Act Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-07

... Transformation Grants: Use of System Dynamic Modeling and Economic Analysis in Select Communities--New--National... community interventions. Using a system dynamics approach, CDC also plans to conduct simulation modeling... the development of analytic tools for system dynamics modeling under more limited conditions. The...

Evaluating models of healthcare delivery using the Model of Care Evaluation Tool (MCET).

PubMed

Hudspeth, Randall S; Vogt, Marjorie; Wysocki, Ken; Pittman, Oralea; Smith, Susan; Cooke, Cindy; Dello Stritto, Rita; Hoyt, Karen Sue; Merritt, T Jeanne

2016-08-01

Our aim was to provide the outcome of a structured Model of Care (MoC) Evaluation Tool (MCET), developed by an FAANP Best-practices Workgroup, that can be used to guide the evaluation of existing MoCs being considered for use in clinical practice. Multiple MoCs are available, but deciding which model of health care delivery to use can be confusing. This five-component tool provides a structured assessment approach to model selection and has universal application. A literature review using CINAHL, PubMed, Ovid, and EBSCO was conducted. The MCET evaluation process includes five sequential components with a feedback loop from component 5 back to component 3 for reevaluation of any refinements. The components are as follows: (1) Background, (2) Selection of an MoC, (3) Implementation, (4) Evaluation, and (5) Sustainability and Future Refinement. This practical resource considers an evidence-based approach to use in determining the best model to implement based on need, stakeholder considerations, and feasibility. ©2015 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

Improving Listening Comprehension through a Whole-Schema Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ellermeyer, Deborah

1993-01-01

Examines the development of the schema, or cognitive structure, theory of reading comprehension. Advances a model for improving listening comprehension within the classroom through a teacher-facilitated approach which leads students to selecting and utilizing existing schema within a whole-language environment. (MDM)

Population Structure, Diversity and Trait Association Analysis in Rice (Oryza sativa L.) Germplasm for Early Seedling Vigor (ESV) Using Trait Linked SSR Markers

PubMed Central

Anandan, Annamalai; Anumalla, Mahender; Pradhan, Sharat Kumar; Ali, Jauhar

2016-01-01

Early seedling vigor (ESV) is the essential trait for direct seeded rice to dominate and smother the weed growth. In this regard, 629 rice genotypes were studied for their morphological and physiological responses in the field under direct seeded aerobic situation on 14th, 28th and 56th days after sowing (DAS). It was determined that the early observations taken on 14th and 28th DAS were reliable estimators to study ESV as compared to56th DAS. Further, 96 were selected from 629 genotypes by principal component (PCA) and discriminate function analyses. The selected genotypes were subjected to decipher the pattern of genetic diversity in terms of both phenotypic and genotypic by using ESV QTL linked simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers. To assess the genetic structure, model and distance based approaches were used. Genotyping of 96 rice lines using 39 polymorphic SSRs produced a total of 128 alleles with the phenotypic information content (PIC) value of 0.24. The model based population structure approach grouped the accession into two distinct populations, whereas unrooted tree grouped the genotypes into three clusters. Both model based and structure based approach had clearly distinguished the early vigor genotypes from non-early vigor genotypes. Association analysis revealed that 16 and 10 SSRs showed significant association with ESV traits by general linear model (GLM) and mixed linear model (MLM) approaches respectively. Marker alleles on chromosome 2 were associated with shoot dry weight on 28 DAS, vigor index on 14 and 28 DAS. Improvement in the rate of seedling growth will be useful for identifying rice genotypes acquiescent to direct seeded conditions through marker-assisted selection. PMID:27031620

The Importance of Neighborhood Scheme Selection in Agent-based Tumor Growth Modeling.

PubMed

Tzedakis, Georgios; Tzamali, Eleftheria; Marias, Kostas; Sakkalis, Vangelis

2015-01-01

Modeling tumor growth has proven a very challenging problem, mainly due to the fact that tumors are highly complex systems that involve dynamic interactions spanning multiple scales both in time and space. The desire to describe interactions in various scales has given rise to modeling approaches that use both continuous and discrete variables, known as hybrid approaches. This work refers to a hybrid model on a 2D square lattice focusing on cell movement dynamics as they play an important role in tumor morphology, invasion and metastasis and are considered as indicators for the stage of malignancy used for early prognosis and effective treatment. Considering various distributions of the microenvironment, we explore how Neumann vs. Moore neighborhood schemes affects tumor growth and morphology. The results indicate that the importance of neighborhood selection is critical under specific conditions that include i) increased hapto/chemo-tactic coefficient, ii) a rugged microenvironment and iii) ECM degradation.

Hybrid feature selection for supporting lightweight intrusion detection systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jianglong; Zhao, Wentao; Liu, Qiang; Wang, Xin

2017-08-01

Redundant and irrelevant features not only cause high resource consumption but also degrade the performance of Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS), especially when coping with big data. These features slow down the process of training and testing in network traffic classification. Therefore, a hybrid feature selection approach in combination with wrapper and filter selection is designed in this paper to build a lightweight intrusion detection system. Two main phases are involved in this method. The first phase conducts a preliminary search for an optimal subset of features, in which the chi-square feature selection is utilized. The selected set of features from the previous phase is further refined in the second phase in a wrapper manner, in which the Random Forest(RF) is used to guide the selection process and retain an optimized set of features. After that, we build an RF-based detection model and make a fair comparison with other approaches. The experimental results on NSL-KDD datasets show that our approach results are in higher detection accuracy as well as faster training and testing processes.

Black-Box System Testing of Real-Time Embedded Systems Using Random and Search-Based Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcuri, Andrea; Iqbal, Muhammad Zohaib; Briand, Lionel

Testing real-time embedded systems (RTES) is in many ways challenging. Thousands of test cases can be potentially executed on an industrial RTES. Given the magnitude of testing at the system level, only a fully automated approach can really scale up to test industrial RTES. In this paper we take a black-box approach and model the RTES environment using the UML/MARTE international standard. Our main motivation is to provide a more practical approach to the model-based testing of RTES by allowing system testers, who are often not familiar with the system design but know the application domain well-enough, to model the environment to enable test automation. Environment models can support the automation of three tasks: the code generation of an environment simulator, the selection of test cases, and the evaluation of their expected results (oracles). In this paper, we focus on the second task (test case selection) and investigate three test automation strategies using inputs from UML/MARTE environment models: Random Testing (baseline), Adaptive Random Testing, and Search-Based Testing (using Genetic Algorithms). Based on one industrial case study and three artificial systems, we show how, in general, no technique is better than the others. Which test selection technique to use is determined by the failure rate (testing stage) and the execution time of test cases. Finally, we propose a practical process to combine the use of all three test strategies.

Improving ontology matching with propagation strategy and user feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chunhua; Cui, Zhiming; Zhao, Pengpeng; Wu, Jian; Xin, Jie; He, Tianxu

2015-07-01

Markov logic networks which unify probabilistic graphical model and first-order logic provide an excellent framework for ontology matching. The existing approach requires a threshold to produce matching candidates and use a small set of constraints acting as filter to select the final alignments. We introduce novel match propagation strategy to model the influences between potential entity mappings across ontologies, which can help to identify the correct correspondences and produce missed correspondences. The estimation of appropriate threshold is a difficult task. We propose an interactive method for threshold selection through which we obtain an additional measurable improvement. Running experiments on a public dataset has demonstrated the effectiveness of proposed approach in terms of the quality of result alignment.

Integrated configurable equipment selection and line balancing for mass production with serial-parallel machining systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battaïa, Olga; Dolgui, Alexandre; Guschinsky, Nikolai; Levin, Genrikh

2014-10-01

Solving equipment selection and line balancing problems together allows better line configurations to be reached and avoids local optimal solutions. This article considers jointly these two decision problems for mass production lines with serial-parallel workplaces. This study was motivated by the design of production lines based on machines with rotary or mobile tables. Nevertheless, the results are more general and can be applied to assembly and production lines with similar structures. The designers' objectives and the constraints are studied in order to suggest a relevant mathematical model and an efficient optimization approach to solve it. A real case study is used to validate the model and the developed approach.

An Integrated model for Product Quality Development—A case study on Quality functions deployment and AHP based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maitra, Subrata; Banerjee, Debamalya

2010-10-01

Present article is based on application of the product quality and improvement of design related with the nature of failure of machineries and plant operational problems of an industrial blower fan Company. The project aims at developing the product on the basis of standardized production parameters for selling its products in the market. Special attention is also being paid to the blower fans which have been ordered directly by the customer on the basis of installed capacity of air to be provided by the fan. Application of quality function deployment is primarily a customer oriented approach. Proposed model of QFD integrated with AHP to select and rank the decision criterions on the commercial and technical factors and the measurement of the decision parameters for selection of best product in the compettitive environment. The present AHP-QFD model justifies the selection of a blower fan with the help of the group of experts' opinion by pairwise comparison of the customer's and ergonomy based technical design requirements. The steps invoved in implementation of the QFD—AHP and selection of weighted criterion may be helpful for all similar purpose industries maintaining cost and utility for competitive product.

Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on chlorophyll a in waterbodies at global and regional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woelmer, Whitney; Kao, Yu-Chun; Bunnell, David B.; Deines, Andrew M.; Bennion, David; Rogers, Mark W.; Brooks, Colin N.; Sayers, Michael J.; Banach, David M.; Grimm, Amanda G.; Shuchman, Robert A.

2016-01-01

Prediction of primary production of lentic water bodies (i.e., lakes and reservoirs) is valuable to researchers and resource managers alike, but is very rarely done at the global scale. With the development of remote sensing technologies, it is now feasible to gather large amounts of data across the world, including understudied and remote regions. To determine which factors were most important in explaining the variation of chlorophyll a (Chl-a), an indicator of primary production in water bodies, at global and regional scales, we first developed a geospatial database of 227 water bodies and watersheds with corresponding Chl-a, nutrient, hydrogeomorphic, and climate data. Then we used a generalized additive modeling approach and developed model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables for all 227 water bodies and for 51 lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region in the data set. Our best global model contained two hydrogeomorphic variables (water body surface area and the ratio of watershed to water body surface area) and a climate variable (average temperature in the warmest model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables quarter) and explained ~ 30% of variation in Chl-a. Our regional model contained one hydrogeomorphic variable (flow accumulation) and the same climate variable, but explained substantially more variation (58%). Our results indicate that a regional approach to watershed modeling may be more informative to predicting Chl-a, and that nearly a third of global variability in Chl-a may be explained using hydrogeomorphic and climate variables.

Factors affecting the accuracy of genomic selection for growth and wood quality traits in an advanced-breeding population of black spruce (Picea mariana).

PubMed

Lenz, Patrick R N; Beaulieu, Jean; Mansfield, Shawn D; Clément, Sébastien; Desponts, Mireille; Bousquet, Jean

2017-04-28

Genomic selection (GS) uses information from genomic signatures consisting of thousands of genetic markers to predict complex traits. As such, GS represents a promising approach to accelerate tree breeding, which is especially relevant for the genetic improvement of boreal conifers characterized by long breeding cycles. In the present study, we tested GS in an advanced-breeding population of the boreal black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] BSP) for growth and wood quality traits, and concurrently examined factors affecting GS model accuracy. The study relied on 734 25-year-old trees belonging to 34 full-sib families derived from 27 parents and that were established on two contrasting sites. Genomic profiles were obtained from 4993 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) representative of as many gene loci distributed among the 12 linkage groups common to spruce. GS models were obtained for four growth and wood traits. Validation using independent sets of trees showed that GS model accuracy was high, related to trait heritability and equivalent to that of conventional pedigree-based models. In forward selection, gains per unit of time were three times higher with the GS approach than with conventional selection. In addition, models were also accurate across sites, indicating little genotype-by-environment interaction in the area investigated. Using information from half-sibs instead of full-sibs led to a significant reduction in model accuracy, indicating that the inclusion of relatedness in the model contributed to its higher accuracies. About 500 to 1000 markers were sufficient to obtain GS model accuracy almost equivalent to that obtained with all markers, whether they were well spread across the genome or from a single linkage group, further confirming the implication of relatedness and potential long-range linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the high accuracy estimates obtained. Only slightly higher model accuracy was obtained when using marker subsets that were identified to carry large effects, indicating a minor role for short-range LD in this population. This study supports the integration of GS models in advanced-generation tree breeding programs, given that high genomic prediction accuracy was obtained with a relatively small number of markers due to high relatedness and family structure in the population. In boreal spruce breeding programs and similar ones with long breeding cycles, much larger gain per unit of time can be obtained from genomic selection at an early age than by the conventional approach. GS thus appears highly profitable, especially in the context of forward selection in species which are amenable to mass vegetative propagation of selected stock, such as spruces.

Effect of Methodological and Ecological Approaches on Heterogeneity of Nest-Site Selection of a Long-Lived Vulture

PubMed Central

Moreno-Opo, Rubén; Fernández-Olalla, Mariana; Margalida, Antoni; Arredondo, Ángel; Guil, Francisco

2012-01-01

The application of scientific-based conservation measures requires that sampling methodologies in studies modelling similar ecological aspects produce comparable results making easier their interpretation. We aimed to show how the choice of different methodological and ecological approaches can affect conclusions in nest-site selection studies along different Palearctic meta-populations of an indicator species. First, a multivariate analysis of the variables affecting nest-site selection in a breeding colony of cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) in central Spain was performed. Then, a meta-analysis was applied to establish how methodological and habitat-type factors determine differences and similarities in the results obtained by previous studies that have modelled the forest breeding habitat of the species. Our results revealed patterns in nesting-habitat modelling by the cinereous vulture throughout its whole range: steep and south-facing slopes, great cover of large trees and distance to human activities were generally selected. The ratio and situation of the studied plots (nests/random), the use of plots vs. polygons as sampling units and the number of years of data set determined the variability explained by the model. Moreover, a greater size of the breeding colony implied that ecological and geomorphological variables at landscape level were more influential. Additionally, human activities affected in greater proportion to colonies situated in Mediterranean forests. For the first time, a meta-analysis regarding the factors determining nest-site selection heterogeneity for a single species at broad scale was achieved. It is essential to homogenize and coordinate experimental design in modelling the selection of species' ecological requirements in order to avoid that differences in results among studies would be due to methodological heterogeneity. This would optimize best conservation and management practices for habitats and species in a global context. PMID:22413023

Will genomic selection be a practical method for plant breeding?

PubMed Central

Nakaya, Akihiro; Isobe, Sachiko N.

2012-01-01

Background Genomic selection or genome-wide selection (GS) has been highlighted as a new approach for marker-assisted selection (MAS) in recent years. GS is a form of MAS that selects favourable individuals based on genomic estimated breeding values. Previous studies have suggested the utility of GS, especially for capturing small-effect quantitative trait loci, but GS has not become a popular methodology in the field of plant breeding, possibly because there is insufficient information available on GS for practical use. Scope In this review, GS is discussed from a practical breeding viewpoint. Statistical approaches employed in GS are briefly described, before the recent progress in GS studies is surveyed. GS practices in plant breeding are then reviewed before future prospects are discussed. Conclusions Statistical concepts used in GS are discussed with genetic models and variance decomposition, heritability, breeding value and linear model. Recent progress in GS studies is reviewed with a focus on empirical studies. For the practice of GS in plant breeding, several specific points are discussed including linkage disequilibrium, feature of populations and genotyped markers and breeding scheme. Currently, GS is not perfect, but it is a potent, attractive and valuable approach for plant breeding. This method will be integrated into many practical breeding programmes in the near future with further advances and the maturing of its theory. PMID:22645117

Using Games Invention with Elementary Children--Teaching for Understanding: Tactical Approaches to Teaching Games.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curtner-Smith, Matthew D.

1996-01-01

Explains how teachers of students in grades four through six can use the Teaching Games for Understanding Approach and incorporate games invention into the physical education curriculum. A three-step model is proposed: selection and modification of games; teaching games with an understanding approach; and student invention of games. Summaries of…

Mapping Resource Selection Functions in Wildlife Studies: Concerns and Recommendations

PubMed Central

Morris, Lillian R.; Proffitt, Kelly M.; Blackburn, Jason K.

2018-01-01

Predicting the spatial distribution of animals is an important and widely used tool with applications in wildlife management, conservation, and population health. Wildlife telemetry technology coupled with the availability of spatial data and GIS software have facilitated advancements in species distribution modeling. There are also challenges related to these advancements including the accurate and appropriate implementation of species distribution modeling methodology. Resource Selection Function (RSF) modeling is a commonly used approach for understanding species distributions and habitat usage, and mapping the RSF results can enhance study findings and make them more accessible to researchers and wildlife managers. Currently, there is no consensus in the literature on the most appropriate method for mapping RSF results, methods are frequently not described, and mapping approaches are not always related to accuracy metrics. We conducted a systematic review of the RSF literature to summarize the methods used to map RSF outputs, discuss the relationship between mapping approaches and accuracy metrics, performed a case study on the implications of employing different mapping methods, and provide recommendations as to appropriate mapping techniques for RSF studies. We found extensive variability in methodology for mapping RSF results. Our case study revealed that the most commonly used approaches for mapping RSF results led to notable differences in the visual interpretation of RSF results, and there is a concerning disconnect between accuracy metrics and mapping methods. We make 5 recommendations for researchers mapping the results of RSF studies, which are focused on carefully selecting and describing the method used to map RSF studies, and relating mapping approaches to accuracy metrics. PMID:29887652

Three-dimensional multiscale modeling of dendritic spacing selection during Al-Si directional solidification

DOE PAGES

Tourret, Damien; Clarke, Amy J.; Imhoff, Seth D.; ...

2015-05-27

We present a three-dimensional extension of the multiscale dendritic needle network (DNN) model. This approach enables quantitative simulations of the unsteady dynamics of complex hierarchical networks in spatially extended dendritic arrays. We apply the model to directional solidification of Al-9.8 wt.%Si alloy and directly compare the model predictions with measurements from experiments with in situ x-ray imaging. The focus is on the dynamical selection of primary spacings over a range of growth velocities, and the influence of sample geometry on the selection of spacings. Simulation results show good agreement with experiments. The computationally efficient DNN model opens new avenues formore » investigating the dynamics of large dendritic arrays at scales relevant to solidification experiments and processes.« less

Gene features selection for three-class disease classification via multiple orthogonal partial least square discriminant analysis and S-plot using microarray data.

PubMed

Yang, Mingxing; Li, Xiumin; Li, Zhibin; Ou, Zhimin; Liu, Ming; Liu, Suhuan; Li, Xuejun; Yang, Shuyu

2013-01-01

DNA microarray analysis is characterized by obtaining a large number of gene variables from a small number of observations. Cluster analysis is widely used to analyze DNA microarray data to make classification and diagnosis of disease. Because there are so many irrelevant and insignificant genes in a dataset, a feature selection approach must be employed in data analysis. The performance of cluster analysis of this high-throughput data depends on whether the feature selection approach chooses the most relevant genes associated with disease classes. Here we proposed a new method using multiple Orthogonal Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis (mOPLS-DA) models and S-plots to select the most relevant genes to conduct three-class disease classification and prediction. We tested our method using Golub's leukemia microarray data. For three classes with subtypes, we proposed hierarchical orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) models and S-plots to select features for two main classes and their subtypes. For three classes in parallel, we employed three OPLS-DA models and S-plots to choose marker genes for each class. The power of feature selection to classify and predict three-class disease was evaluated using cluster analysis. Further, the general performance of our method was tested using four public datasets and compared with those of four other feature selection methods. The results revealed that our method effectively selected the most relevant features for disease classification and prediction, and its performance was better than that of the other methods.

Thermal Texture Selection and Correction for Building Facade Inspection Based on Thermal Radiant Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, D.; Jarzabek-Rychard, M.; Schneider, D.; Maas, H.-G.

2018-05-01

An automatic building façade thermal texture mapping approach, using uncooled thermal camera data, is proposed in this paper. First, a shutter-less radiometric thermal camera calibration method is implemented to remove the large offset deviations caused by changing ambient environment. Then, a 3D façade model is generated from a RGB image sequence using structure-from-motion (SfM) techniques. Subsequently, for each triangle in the 3D model, the optimal texture is selected by taking into consideration local image scale, object incident angle, image viewing angle as well as occlusions. Afterwards, the selected textures can be further corrected using thermal radiant characteristics. Finally, the Gauss filter outperforms the voted texture strategy at the seams smoothing and thus for instance helping to reduce the false alarm rate in façade thermal leakages detection. Our approach is evaluated on a building row façade located at Dresden, Germany.

Nonparametric Bayesian models for a spatial covariance.

PubMed

Reich, Brian J; Fuentes, Montserrat

2012-01-01

A crucial step in the analysis of spatial data is to estimate the spatial correlation function that determines the relationship between a spatial process at two locations. The standard approach to selecting the appropriate correlation function is to use prior knowledge or exploratory analysis, such as a variogram analysis, to select the correct parametric correlation function. Rather that selecting a particular parametric correlation function, we treat the covariance function as an unknown function to be estimated from the data. We propose a flexible prior for the correlation function to provide robustness to the choice of correlation function. We specify the prior for the correlation function using spectral methods and the Dirichlet process prior, which is a common prior for an unknown distribution function. Our model does not require Gaussian data or spatial locations on a regular grid. The approach is demonstrated using a simulation study as well as an analysis of California air pollution data.

A new adaptive multiple modelling approach for non-linear and non-stationary systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hao; Gong, Yu; Hong, Xia

2016-07-01

This paper proposes a novel adaptive multiple modelling algorithm for non-linear and non-stationary systems. This simple modelling paradigm comprises K candidate sub-models which are all linear. With data available in an online fashion, the performance of all candidate sub-models are monitored based on the most recent data window, and M best sub-models are selected from the K candidates. The weight coefficients of the selected sub-model are adapted via the recursive least square (RLS) algorithm, while the coefficients of the remaining sub-models are unchanged. These M model predictions are then optimally combined to produce the multi-model output. We propose to minimise the mean square error based on a recent data window, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters, leading to a closed-form solution, so that maximal computational efficiency can be achieved. In addition, at each time step, the model prediction is chosen from either the resultant multiple model or the best sub-model, whichever is the best. Simulation results are given in comparison with some typical alternatives, including the linear RLS algorithm and a number of online non-linear approaches, in terms of modelling performance and time consumption.

Model Uncertainty and Bayesian Model Averaged Benchmark Dose Estimation for Continuous Data

EPA Science Inventory

The benchmark dose (BMD) approach has gained acceptance as a valuable risk assessment tool, but risk assessors still face significant challenges associated with selecting an appropriate BMD/BMDL estimate from the results of a set of acceptable dose-response models. Current approa...

Using maximum entropy modeling for optimal selection of sampling sites for monitoring networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Kumar, Sunil; Barnett, David T.; Evangelista, Paul H.

2011-01-01

Environmental monitoring programs must efficiently describe state shifts. We propose using maximum entropy modeling to select dissimilar sampling sites to capture environmental variability at low cost, and demonstrate a specific application: sample site selection for the Central Plains domain (453,490 km2) of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). We relied on four environmental factors: mean annual temperature and precipitation, elevation, and vegetation type. A “sample site” was defined as a 20 km × 20 km area (equal to NEON’s airborne observation platform [AOP] footprint), within which each 1 km2 cell was evaluated for each environmental factor. After each model run, the most environmentally dissimilar site was selected from all potential sample sites. The iterative selection of eight sites captured approximately 80% of the environmental envelope of the domain, an improvement over stratified random sampling and simple random designs for sample site selection. This approach can be widely used for cost-efficient selection of survey and monitoring sites.

ENU mutagenesis to generate genetically modified rat models.

PubMed

van Boxtel, Ruben; Gould, Michael N; Cuppen, Edwin; Smits, Bart M G

2010-01-01

The rat is one of the most preferred model organisms in biomedical research and has been extremely useful for linking physiology and pathology to the genome. However, approaches to genetically modify specific genes in the rat germ line remain relatively scarce. To date, the most efficient approach for generating genetically modified rats has been the target-selected N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU) mutagenesis-based technology. Here, we describe the detailed protocols for ENU mutagenesis and mutant retrieval in the rat model organism.

A computational approach to predicting ligand selectivity for the size-based separation of trivalent lanthanides

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ivanov, Alexander S.; Bryantsev, Vyacheslav S.

An accurate description of solvation effects for trivalent lanthanide ions is a main stumbling block to the qualitative prediction of selectivity trends along the lanthanide series. In this work, we propose a simple model to describe the differential effect of solvation in the competitive binding of a ligand by lanthanide ions by including weakly co-ordinated counterions in the complexes of more than a +1 charge. The success of the approach to quantitatively reproduce selectivities obtained from aqueous phase complexation studies demonstrates its potential for the design and screening of new ligands for efficient size-based separation.

A computational approach to predicting ligand selectivity for the size-based separation of trivalent lanthanides

DOE PAGES

Ivanov, Alexander S.; Bryantsev, Vyacheslav S.

2016-06-20

An accurate description of solvation effects for trivalent lanthanide ions is a main stumbling block to the qualitative prediction of selectivity trends along the lanthanide series. In this work, we propose a simple model to describe the differential effect of solvation in the competitive binding of a ligand by lanthanide ions by including weakly co-ordinated counterions in the complexes of more than a +1 charge. The success of the approach to quantitatively reproduce selectivities obtained from aqueous phase complexation studies demonstrates its potential for the design and screening of new ligands for efficient size-based separation.

Mapping raised bogs with an iterative one-class classification approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mack, Benjamin; Roscher, Ribana; Stenzel, Stefanie; Feilhauer, Hannes; Schmidtlein, Sebastian; Waske, Björn

2016-10-01

Land use and land cover maps are one of the most commonly used remote sensing products. In many applications the user only requires a map of one particular class of interest, e.g. a specific vegetation type or an invasive species. One-class classifiers are appealing alternatives to common supervised classifiers because they can be trained with labeled training data of the class of interest only. However, training an accurate one-class classification (OCC) model is challenging, particularly when facing a large image, a small class and few training samples. To tackle these problems we propose an iterative OCC approach. The presented approach uses a biased Support Vector Machine as core classifier. In an iterative pre-classification step a large part of the pixels not belonging to the class of interest is classified. The remaining data is classified by a final classifier with a novel model and threshold selection approach. The specific objective of our study is the classification of raised bogs in a study site in southeast Germany, using multi-seasonal RapidEye data and a small number of training sample. Results demonstrate that the iterative OCC outperforms other state of the art one-class classifiers and approaches for model selection. The study highlights the potential of the proposed approach for an efficient and improved mapping of small classes such as raised bogs. Overall the proposed approach constitutes a feasible approach and useful modification of a regular one-class classifier.

Bayesian effect estimation accounting for adjustment uncertainty.

PubMed

Wang, Chi; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Dominici, Francesca

2012-09-01

Model-based estimation of the effect of an exposure on an outcome is generally sensitive to the choice of which confounding factors are included in the model. We propose a new approach, which we call Bayesian adjustment for confounding (BAC), to estimate the effect of an exposure of interest on the outcome, while accounting for the uncertainty in the choice of confounders. Our approach is based on specifying two models: (1) the outcome as a function of the exposure and the potential confounders (the outcome model); and (2) the exposure as a function of the potential confounders (the exposure model). We consider Bayesian variable selection on both models and link the two by introducing a dependence parameter, ω, denoting the prior odds of including a predictor in the outcome model, given that the same predictor is in the exposure model. In the absence of dependence (ω= 1), BAC reduces to traditional Bayesian model averaging (BMA). In simulation studies, we show that BAC, with ω > 1, estimates the exposure effect with smaller bias than traditional BMA, and improved coverage. We, then, compare BAC, a recent approach of Crainiceanu, Dominici, and Parmigiani (2008, Biometrika 95, 635-651), and traditional BMA in a time series data set of hospital admissions, air pollution levels, and weather variables in Nassau, NY for the period 1999-2005. Using each approach, we estimate the short-term effects of on emergency admissions for cardiovascular diseases, accounting for confounding. This application illustrates the potentially significant pitfalls of misusing variable selection methods in the context of adjustment uncertainty. © 2012, The International Biometric Society.

Can machine learning complement traditional medical device surveillance? A case study of dual-chamber implantable cardioverter–defibrillators

PubMed Central

Ross, Joseph S; Bates, Jonathan; Parzynski, Craig S; Akar, Joseph G; Curtis, Jeptha P; Desai, Nihar R; Freeman, James V; Gamble, Ginger M; Kuntz, Richard; Li, Shu-Xia; Marinac-Dabic, Danica; Masoudi, Frederick A; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Ranasinghe, Isuru; Shaw, Richard E; Krumholz, Harlan M

2017-01-01

Background Machine learning methods may complement traditional analytic methods for medical device surveillance. Methods and results Using data from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry for implantable cardioverter–defibrillators (ICDs) linked to Medicare administrative claims for longitudinal follow-up, we applied three statistical approaches to safety-signal detection for commonly used dual-chamber ICDs that used two propensity score (PS) models: one specified by subject-matter experts (PS-SME), and the other one by machine learning-based selection (PS-ML). The first approach used PS-SME and cumulative incidence (time-to-event), the second approach used PS-SME and cumulative risk (Data Extraction and Longitudinal Trend Analysis [DELTA]), and the third approach used PS-ML and cumulative risk (embedded feature selection). Safety-signal surveillance was conducted for eleven dual-chamber ICD models implanted at least 2,000 times over 3 years. Between 2006 and 2010, there were 71,948 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries who received dual-chamber ICDs. Cumulative device-specific unadjusted 3-year event rates varied for three surveyed safety signals: death from any cause, 12.8%–20.9%; nonfatal ICD-related adverse events, 19.3%–26.3%; and death from any cause or nonfatal ICD-related adverse event, 27.1%–37.6%. Agreement among safety signals detected/not detected between the time-to-event and DELTA approaches was 90.9% (360 of 396, k=0.068), between the time-to-event and embedded feature-selection approaches was 91.7% (363 of 396, k=−0.028), and between the DELTA and embedded feature selection approaches was 88.1% (349 of 396, k=−0.042). Conclusion Three statistical approaches, including one machine learning method, identified important safety signals, but without exact agreement. Ensemble methods may be needed to detect all safety signals for further evaluation during medical device surveillance. PMID:28860874

UXO Discrimination Study Former Spencer Artillery Range

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-01

tested . This approach uses one of three models labeled: aggressive, intermediate and conservative. The choice of model depends on an a...anomalies will be selected for labeling using NMAL. The goal at this step is to maximize the information gain from new labels requested from the set of ...number of false alarms (nFA) is lower for the classifier where feature selection was used . 9 Complexity of a site is measured using an information

A pattern of contractor selection for oil and gas industries in a safety approach using ANP-DEMATEL in a Grey environment.

PubMed

Gharedaghi, Gholamreza; Omidvari, Manouchehr

2018-01-11

Contractor selection is one of the major concerns of industry managers such as those in the oil industry. The objective of this study was to determine a contractor selection pattern for oil and gas industries in a safety approach. Assessment of contractors based on specific criteria and ultimately selecting an eligible contractor preserves the organizational resources. Due to the safety risks involved in the oil industry, one of the major criteria of contractor selection considered by managers today is safety. The results indicated that the most important safety criterion of contractor selection was safety records and safety investments. This represented the industry's risks and the impact of safety training and investment on the performance of other sectors and the overall organization. The output of this model could be useful in the safety risk assessment process in the oil industry and other industries.

Application of the Double-Tangent Construction of Coexisting Phases to Any Type of Phase Equilibrium for Binary Systems Modeled with the Gamma-Phi Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jaubert, Jean-Noël; Privat, Romain

2014-01-01

The double-tangent construction of coexisting phases is an elegant approach to visualize all the multiphase binary systems that satisfy the equality of chemical potentials and to select the stable state. In this paper, we show how to perform the double-tangent construction of coexisting phases for binary systems modeled with the gamma-phi…

3D-QSAR and molecular docking study on bisarylmaleimide series as glycogen synthase kinase 3, cyclin dependent kinase 2 and cyclin dependent kinase 4 inhibitors: an insight into the criteria for selectivity.

PubMed

Dessalew, Nigus; Bharatam, Prasad V

2007-07-01

Selective glycogen synthase kinase 3 (GSK3) inhibition over cyclin dependent kinases such as cyclin dependent kinase 2 (CDK2) and cyclin dependent kinase 4 (CDK4) is an important requirement for improved therapeutic profile of GSK3 inhibitors. The concepts of selectivity and additivity fields have been employed in developing selective CoMFA models for these related kinases. Initially, sets of three individual CoMFA models were developed, using 36 compounds of bisarylmaleimide series to correlate with the GSK3, CDK2 and CDK4 inhibitory potencies. These models showed a satisfactory statistical significance: CoMFA-GSK3 (r(2)(con), r(2)(cv): 0.931, 0.519), CoMFA-CDK2 (0.937, 0.563), and CoMFA-CDK4 (0.892, 0.725). Three different selective CoMFA models were then developed using differences in pIC(50) values. These three models showed a superior statistical significance: (i) CoMFA-Selective1 (r(2)(con), r(2)(cv): 0.969, 0.768), (ii) CoMFA-Selective 2 (0.974, 0.835) and (iii) CoMFA-Selective3 (0.963, 0.776). The selective models were found to outperform the individual models in terms of the quality of correlation and were found to be more informative in pinpointing the structural basis for the observed quantitative differences of kinase inhibition. An in-depth comparative investigation was carried out between the individual and selective models to gain an insight into the selectivity criterion. To further validate this approach, a set of new compounds were designed which show selectivity and were docked into the active site of GSK3, using FlexX based incremental construction algorithm.

Developing an Approach to Model UV Fluxes in Smoke Laden Conditions over Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Y. H.; Sokolik, I. N.

2016-12-01

The UV characteristics of smoke aerosols are valuable inputs to the UV Index forecasts, air quality studies, and assessments of the impact of regional environmental changes. The wavelength dependence of light absorption by aerosol particles is pronounced throughout the UV spectral region. Also in assumption that smoke consists of BC, OC, and Sulfate, the mass fraction of smoke is different with fire types. The purpose of this study is to introduce an approach to calculate the UV fluxes in the aerosol laden conditions, and investigate the irradiance compared to measured irradiance in the UV spectrum. To compute the spectral optical properties (e.g., the effective single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, and aerosol optical thickness) for the selected scenarios, the representative size distribution and the refractive index are selected and used in the Mie code. Smoke aerosol information (e.g. emission injection height, mass concentration of smoke components) from WRF Chem is applied to run tropospheric ultraviolet and visible (TUV) model. Using the TUV model, we make the comparisons between model and measured irradiance in UV spectrum in smoke aerosol conditions. An advantage of this approach and the uncertainty of the evaluation are discussed. Overall, the results of this investigation show that this approach is valuable to estimate UV fluxes in smoke laden conditions.

Elementary Teachers' Selection and Use of Visual Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tammy D.; Gail Jones, M.

2018-02-01

As science grows in complexity, science teachers face an increasing challenge of helping students interpret models that represent complex science systems. Little is known about how teachers select and use models when planning lessons. This mixed methods study investigated the pedagogical approaches and visual models used by elementary in-service and preservice teachers in the development of a science lesson about a complex system (e.g., water cycle). Sixty-seven elementary in-service and 69 elementary preservice teachers completed a card sort task designed to document the types of visual models (e.g., images) that teachers choose when planning science instruction. Quantitative and qualitative analyses were conducted to analyze the card sort task. Semistructured interviews were conducted with a subsample of teachers to elicit the rationale for image selection. Results from this study showed that both experienced in-service teachers and novice preservice teachers tended to select similar models and use similar rationales for images to be used in lessons. Teachers tended to select models that were aesthetically pleasing and simple in design and illustrated specific elements of the water cycle. The results also showed that teachers were not likely to select images that represented the less obvious dimensions of the water cycle. Furthermore, teachers selected visual models more as a pedagogical tool to illustrate specific elements of the water cycle and less often as a tool to promote student learning related to complex systems.

Composite load spectra for select space propulsion structural components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newell, J. F.; Kurth, R. E.; Ho, H.

1991-01-01

The objective of this program is to develop generic load models with multiple levels of progressive sophistication to simulate the composite (combined) load spectra that are induced in space propulsion system components, representative of Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), such as transfer ducts, turbine blades, and liquid oxygen posts and system ducting. The first approach will consist of using state of the art probabilistic methods to describe the individual loading conditions and combinations of these loading conditions to synthesize the composite load spectra simulation. The second approach will consist of developing coupled models for composite load spectra simulation which combine the deterministic models for composite load dynamic, acoustic, high pressure, and high rotational speed, etc., load simulation using statistically varying coefficients. These coefficients will then be determined using advanced probabilistic simulation methods with and without strategically selected experimental data.

A novel method for expediting the development of patient-reported outcome measures and an evaluation across several populations

PubMed Central

Garrard, Lili; Price, Larry R.; Bott, Marjorie J.; Gajewski, Byron J.

2016-01-01

Item response theory (IRT) models provide an appropriate alternative to the classical ordinal confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) during the development of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). Current literature has identified the assessment of IRT model fit as both challenging and underdeveloped (Sinharay & Johnson, 2003; Sinharay, Johnson, & Stern, 2006). This study evaluates the performance of Ordinal Bayesian Instrument Development (OBID), a Bayesian IRT model with a probit link function approach, through applications in two breast cancer-related instrument development studies. The primary focus is to investigate an appropriate method for comparing Bayesian IRT models in PROMs development. An exact Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) approach (Vehtari & Lampinen, 2002) is implemented to assess prior selection for the item discrimination parameter in the IRT model and subject content experts’ bias (in a statistical sense and not to be confused with psychometric bias as in differential item functioning) toward the estimation of item-to-domain correlations. Results support the utilization of content subject experts’ information in establishing evidence for construct validity when sample size is small. However, the incorporation of subject experts’ content information in the OBID approach can be sensitive to the level of expertise of the recruited experts. More stringent efforts need to be invested in the appropriate selection of subject experts to efficiently use the OBID approach and reduce potential bias during PROMs development. PMID:27667878

A novel method for expediting the development of patient-reported outcome measures and an evaluation across several populations.

PubMed

Garrard, Lili; Price, Larry R; Bott, Marjorie J; Gajewski, Byron J

2016-10-01

Item response theory (IRT) models provide an appropriate alternative to the classical ordinal confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) during the development of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). Current literature has identified the assessment of IRT model fit as both challenging and underdeveloped (Sinharay & Johnson, 2003; Sinharay, Johnson, & Stern, 2006). This study evaluates the performance of Ordinal Bayesian Instrument Development (OBID), a Bayesian IRT model with a probit link function approach, through applications in two breast cancer-related instrument development studies. The primary focus is to investigate an appropriate method for comparing Bayesian IRT models in PROMs development. An exact Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) approach (Vehtari & Lampinen, 2002) is implemented to assess prior selection for the item discrimination parameter in the IRT model and subject content experts' bias (in a statistical sense and not to be confused with psychometric bias as in differential item functioning) toward the estimation of item-to-domain correlations. Results support the utilization of content subject experts' information in establishing evidence for construct validity when sample size is small. However, the incorporation of subject experts' content information in the OBID approach can be sensitive to the level of expertise of the recruited experts. More stringent efforts need to be invested in the appropriate selection of subject experts to efficiently use the OBID approach and reduce potential bias during PROMs development.

Pixel-based flood mapping from SAR imagery: a comparison of approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landuyt, Lisa; Van Wesemael, Alexandra; Van Coillie, Frieke M. B.; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2017-04-01

Due to their all-weather, day and night capabilities, SAR sensors have been shown to be particularly suitable for flood mapping applications. Thus, they can provide spatially-distributed flood extent data which are valuable for calibrating, validating and updating flood inundation models. These models are an invaluable tool for water managers, to take appropriate measures in times of high water levels. Image analysis approaches to delineate flood extent on SAR imagery are numerous. They can be classified into two categories, i.e. pixel-based and object-based approaches. Pixel-based approaches, e.g. thresholding, are abundant and in general computationally inexpensive. However, large discrepancies between these techniques exist and often subjective user intervention is needed. Object-based approaches require more processing but allow for the integration of additional object characteristics, like contextual information and object geometry, and thus have significant potential to provide an improved classification result. As means of benchmark, a selection of pixel-based techniques is applied on a ERS-2 SAR image of the 2006 flood event of River Dee, United Kingdom. This selection comprises Otsu thresholding, Kittler & Illingworth thresholding, the Fine To Coarse segmentation algorithm and active contour modelling. The different classification results are evaluated and compared by means of several accuracy measures, including binary performance measures.

Stochastic and deterministic multiscale models for systems biology: an auxin-transport case study.

PubMed

Twycross, Jamie; Band, Leah R; Bennett, Malcolm J; King, John R; Krasnogor, Natalio

2010-03-26

Stochastic and asymptotic methods are powerful tools in developing multiscale systems biology models; however, little has been done in this context to compare the efficacy of these methods. The majority of current systems biology modelling research, including that of auxin transport, uses numerical simulations to study the behaviour of large systems of deterministic ordinary differential equations, with little consideration of alternative modelling frameworks. In this case study, we solve an auxin-transport model using analytical methods, deterministic numerical simulations and stochastic numerical simulations. Although the three approaches in general predict the same behaviour, the approaches provide different information that we use to gain distinct insights into the modelled biological system. We show in particular that the analytical approach readily provides straightforward mathematical expressions for the concentrations and transport speeds, while the stochastic simulations naturally provide information on the variability of the system. Our study provides a constructive comparison which highlights the advantages and disadvantages of each of the considered modelling approaches. This will prove helpful to researchers when weighing up which modelling approach to select. In addition, the paper goes some way to bridging the gap between these approaches, which in the future we hope will lead to integrative hybrid models.

Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling.

PubMed

Sloth Madsen, M; Maule, C Fox; MacKellar, N; Olesen, J E; Christensen, J Hesselbjerg

2012-01-01

Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented in this paper, applied to relative humidity, but it could be adopted to other variables if needed.

Genetic Programming Transforms in Linear Regression Situations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, Flor; Kordon, Arthur; Villa, Carlos

The chapter summarizes the use of Genetic Programming (GP) inMultiple Linear Regression (MLR) to address multicollinearity and Lack of Fit (LOF). The basis of the proposed method is applying appropriate input transforms (model respecification) that deal with these issues while preserving the information content of the original variables. The transforms are selected from symbolic regression models with optimal trade-off between accuracy of prediction and expressional complexity, generated by multiobjective Pareto-front GP. The chapter includes a comparative study of the GP-generated transforms with Ridge Regression, a variant of ordinary Multiple Linear Regression, which has been a useful and commonly employed approach for reducing multicollinearity. The advantages of GP-generated model respecification are clearly defined and demonstrated. Some recommendations for transforms selection are given as well. The application benefits of the proposed approach are illustrated with a real industrial application in one of the broadest empirical modeling areas in manufacturing - robust inferential sensors. The chapter contributes to increasing the awareness of the potential of GP in statistical model building by MLR.

Combining Computational Methods for Hit to Lead Optimization in Mycobacterium tuberculosis Drug Discovery

PubMed Central

Ekins, Sean; Freundlich, Joel S.; Hobrath, Judith V.; White, E. Lucile; Reynolds, Robert C

2013-01-01

Purpose Tuberculosis treatments need to be shorter and overcome drug resistance. Our previous large scale phenotypic high-throughput screening against Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) has identified 737 active compounds and thousands that are inactive. We have used this data for building computational models as an approach to minimize the number of compounds tested. Methods A cheminformatics clustering approach followed by Bayesian machine learning models (based on publicly available Mtb screening data) was used to illustrate that application of these models for screening set selections can enrich the hit rate. Results In order to explore chemical diversity around active cluster scaffolds of the dose-response hits obtained from our previous Mtb screens a set of 1924 commercially available molecules have been selected and evaluated for antitubercular activity and cytotoxicity using Vero, THP-1 and HepG2 cell lines with 4.3%, 4.2% and 2.7% hit rates, respectively. We demonstrate that models incorporating antitubercular and cytotoxicity data in Vero cells can significantly enrich the selection of non-toxic actives compared to random selection. Across all cell lines, the Molecular Libraries Small Molecule Repository (MLSMR) and cytotoxicity model identified ~10% of the hits in the top 1% screened (>10 fold enrichment). We also showed that seven out of nine Mtb active compounds from different academic published studies and eight out of eleven Mtb active compounds from a pharmaceutical screen (GSK) would have been identified by these Bayesian models. Conclusion Combining clustering and Bayesian models represents a useful strategy for compound prioritization and hit-to lead optimization of antitubercular agents. PMID:24132686

Objective determination of image end-members in spectral mixture analysis of AVIRIS data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tompkins, Stefanie; Mustard, John F.; Pieters, Carle M.; Forsyth, Donald W.

1993-01-01

Spectral mixture analysis has been shown to be a powerful, multifaceted tool for analysis of multi- and hyper-spectral data. Applications of AVIRIS data have ranged from mapping soils and bedrock to ecosystem studies. During the first phase of the approach, a set of end-members are selected from an image cube (image end-members) that best account for its spectral variance within a constrained, linear least squares mixing model. These image end-members are usually selected using a priori knowledge and successive trial and error solutions to refine the total number and physical location of the end-members. However, in many situations a more objective method of determining these essential components is desired. We approach the problem of image end-member determination objectively by using the inherent variance of the data. Unlike purely statistical methods such as factor analysis, this approach derives solutions that conform to a physically realistic model.

[Location selection for Shenyang urban parks based on GIS and multi-objective location allocation model].

PubMed

Zhou, Yuan; Shi, Tie-Mao; Hu, Yuan-Man; Gao, Chang; Liu, Miao; Song, Lin-Qi

2011-12-01

Based on geographic information system (GIS) technology and multi-objective location-allocation (LA) model, and in considering of four relatively independent objective factors (population density level, air pollution level, urban heat island effect level, and urban land use pattern), an optimized location selection for the urban parks within the Third Ring of Shenyang was conducted, and the selection results were compared with the spatial distribution of existing parks, aimed to evaluate the rationality of the spatial distribution of urban green spaces. In the location selection of urban green spaces in the study area, the factor air pollution was most important, and, compared with single objective factor, the weighted analysis results of multi-objective factors could provide optimized spatial location selection of new urban green spaces. The combination of GIS technology with LA model would be a new approach for the spatial optimizing of urban green spaces.

A "Model" Multivariable Calculus Course.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beckmann, Charlene E.; Schlicker, Steven J.

1999-01-01

Describes a rich, investigative approach to multivariable calculus. Introduces a project in which students construct physical models of surfaces that represent real-life applications of their choice. The models, along with student-selected datasets, serve as vehicles to study most of the concepts of the course from both continuous and discrete…

Time Series ARIMA Models of Undergraduate Grade Point Average.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Bruce G.

The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models, often referred to as Box-Jenkins models, are regression methods for analyzing sequential dependent observations with large amounts of data. The Box-Jenkins approach, a three-stage procedure consisting of identification, estimation and diagnosis, was used to select the most appropriate…

A Multidimensional Curriculum Model for Heritage or International Language Instruction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lazaruk, Wally

1993-01-01

Describes the Multidimension Curriculum Model for developing a language curriculum and suggests a generic approach to selecting and sequencing learning objectives. Alberta Education used this model to design a new French-as-a-Second-Language program. The experience/communication, culture, language, and general language components at the beginning,…

Relationship between Service Quality, Satisfaction, Motivation and Loyalty: A Multi-Dimensional Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Subrahmanyam, Annamdevula

2017-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to identify and test four competing models with the interrelationships between students' perceived service quality, students' satisfaction, loyalty and motivation using structural equation modeling (SEM), and to select the best model using chi-square difference (??2) statistic test. Design/methodology/approach: The study…

Modeling Teacher Beliefs and Practices in Context: A Multimethods Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nishino, Takako

2012-01-01

This study investigates the relationship among Japanese high school teachers' beliefs, their practices, and socioeducational factors regarding communicative language teaching (CLT). A multimethods approach was used consisting of a survey, interviews, and class observations. A Teacher Beliefs Questionnaire was sent to 188 randomly selected Japanese…

Fast Geometric Consensus Approach for Protein Model Quality Assessment

PubMed Central

Adamczak, Rafal; Pillardy, Jaroslaw; Vallat, Brinda K.

2011-01-01

Abstract Model quality assessment (MQA) is an integral part of protein structure prediction methods that typically generate multiple candidate models. The challenge lies in ranking and selecting the best models using a variety of physical, knowledge-based, and geometric consensus (GC)-based scoring functions. In particular, 3D-Jury and related GC methods assume that well-predicted (sub-)structures are more likely to occur frequently in a population of candidate models, compared to incorrectly folded fragments. While this approach is very successful in the context of diversified sets of models, identifying similar substructures is computationally expensive since all pairs of models need to be superimposed using MaxSub or related heuristics for structure-to-structure alignment. Here, we consider a fast alternative, in which structural similarity is assessed using 1D profiles, e.g., consisting of relative solvent accessibilities and secondary structures of equivalent amino acid residues in the respective models. We show that the new approach, dubbed 1D-Jury, allows to implicitly compare and rank N models in O(N) time, as opposed to quadratic complexity of 3D-Jury and related clustering-based methods. In addition, 1D-Jury avoids computationally expensive 3D superposition of pairs of models. At the same time, structural similarity scores based on 1D profiles are shown to correlate strongly with those obtained using MaxSub. In terms of the ability to select the best models as top candidates 1D-Jury performs on par with other GC methods. Other potential applications of the new approach, including fast clustering of large numbers of intermediate structures generated by folding simulations, are discussed as well. PMID:21244273

Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, either a preselected set of predictor variables are used, or stepwise procedures are employed which iteratively add/remove variables according to their importance measures. This paper investigates the application of variable selection methods to RF models for predicting probable biological stream condition. Our motivating dataset consists of the good/poor condition of n=1365 stream survey sites from the 2008/2009 National Rivers and Stream Assessment, and a large set (p=212) of landscape features from the StreamCat dataset. Two types of RF models are compared: a full variable set model with all 212 predictors, and a reduced variable set model selected using a backwards elimination approach. We assess model accuracy using RF's internal out-of-bag estimate, and a cross-validation procedure with validation folds external to the variable selection process. We also assess the stability of the spatial predictions generated by the RF models to changes in the number of predictors, and argue that model selection needs to consider both accuracy and stability. The results suggest that RF modeling is robust to the inclusion of many variables of moderate to low importance. We found no substanti

Automatic Hazard Detection for Landers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huertas, Andres; Cheng, Yang; Matthies, Larry H.

2008-01-01

Unmanned planetary landers to date have landed 'blind'; that is, without the benefit of onboard landing hazard detection and avoidance systems. This constrains landing site selection to very benign terrain,which in turn constrains the scientific agenda of missions. The state of the art Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) technology can land a spacecraft on Mars somewhere within a 20-100km landing ellipse.Landing ellipses are very likely to contain hazards such as craters, discontinuities, steep slopes, and large rocks, than can cause mission-fatal damage. We briefly review sensor options for landing hazard detection and identify a perception approach based on stereo vision and shadow analysis that addresses the broadest set of missions. Our approach fuses stereo vision and monocular shadow-based rock detection to maximize spacecraft safety. We summarize performance models for slope estimation and rock detection within this approach and validate those models experimentally. Instantiating our model of rock detection reliability for Mars predicts that this approach can reduce the probability of failed landing by at least a factor of 4 in any given terrain. We also describe a rock detector/mapper applied to large-high-resolution images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) for landing site characterization and selection for Mars missions.

Evidence-based selection of theories for designing behaviour change interventions: using methods based on theoretical construct domains to understand clinicians' blood transfusion behaviour.

PubMed

Francis, Jill J; Stockton, Charlotte; Eccles, Martin P; Johnston, Marie; Cuthbertson, Brian H; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; Hyde, Chris; Tinmouth, Alan; Stanworth, Simon J

2009-11-01

Many theories of behaviour are potentially relevant to predictive and intervention studies but most studies investigate a narrow range of theories. Michie et al. (2005) agreed 12 'theoretical domains' from 33 theories that explain behaviour change. They developed a 'Theoretical Domains Interview' (TDI) for identifying relevant domains for specific clinical behaviours, but the framework has not been used for selecting theories for predictive studies. It was used here to investigate clinicians' transfusion behaviour in intensive care units (ICU). Evidence suggests that red blood cells transfusion could be reduced for some patients without reducing quality of care. (1) To identify the domains relevant to transfusion practice in ICUs and neonatal intensive care units (NICUs), using the TDI. (2) To use the identified domains to select appropriate theories for a study predicting transfusion behaviour. An adapted TDI about managing a patient with borderline haemoglobin by watching and waiting instead of transfusing red blood cells was used to conduct semi-structured, one-to-one interviews with 18 intensive care consultants and neonatologists across the UK. Relevant theoretical domains were: knowledge, beliefs about capabilities, beliefs about consequences, social influences, behavioural regulation. Further analysis at the construct level resulted in selection of seven theoretical approaches relevant to this context: Knowledge-Attitude-Behaviour Model, Theory of Planned Behaviour, Social Cognitive Theory, Operant Learning Theory, Control Theory, Normative Model of Work Team Effectiveness and Action Planning Approaches. This study illustrated, the use of the TDI to identify relevant domains in a complex area of inpatient care. This approach is potentially valuable for selecting theories relevant to predictive studies and resulted in greater breadth of potential explanations than would be achieved if a single theoretical model had been adopted.

An evaluation of selected in silico models for the assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Skin sensitization remains an important endpoint for consumers, manufacturers and regulators. Although the development of alternative approaches to assess skin sensitization potential has been extremely active over many years, the implication of regulations such as REACH and the Cosmetics Directive in EU has provided a much stronger impetus to actualize this research into practical tools for decision making. Thus there has been considerable focus on the development, evaluation, and integration of alternative approaches for skin sensitization hazard and risk assessment. This includes in silico approaches such as (Q)SARs and expert systems. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of a selection of in silico models and then to explore whether combining those models led to an improvement in accuracy. A dataset of 473 substances that had been tested in the local lymph node assay (LLNA) was compiled. This comprised 295 sensitizers and 178 non-sensitizers. Four freely available models were identified - 2 statistical models VEGA and MultiCASE model A33 for skin sensitization (MCASE A33) from the Danish National Food Institute and two mechanistic models Toxtree’s Skin sensitization Reaction domains (Toxtree SS Rxn domains) and the OASIS v1.3 protein binding alerts for skin sensitization from the OECD Toolbox (OASIS). VEGA and MCASE A33 aim to predict sensitization as a binary score whereas the mechanistic models identified reaction domains or structura

Cross-validation pitfalls when selecting and assessing regression and classification models.

PubMed

Krstajic, Damjan; Buturovic, Ljubomir J; Leahy, David E; Thomas, Simon

2014-03-29

We address the problem of selecting and assessing classification and regression models using cross-validation. Current state-of-the-art methods can yield models with high variance, rendering them unsuitable for a number of practical applications including QSAR. In this paper we describe and evaluate best practices which improve reliability and increase confidence in selected models. A key operational component of the proposed methods is cloud computing which enables routine use of previously infeasible approaches. We describe in detail an algorithm for repeated grid-search V-fold cross-validation for parameter tuning in classification and regression, and we define a repeated nested cross-validation algorithm for model assessment. As regards variable selection and parameter tuning we define two algorithms (repeated grid-search cross-validation and double cross-validation), and provide arguments for using the repeated grid-search in the general case. We show results of our algorithms on seven QSAR datasets. The variation of the prediction performance, which is the result of choosing different splits of the dataset in V-fold cross-validation, needs to be taken into account when selecting and assessing classification and regression models. We demonstrate the importance of repeating cross-validation when selecting an optimal model, as well as the importance of repeating nested cross-validation when assessing a prediction error.

Genetic and Psychosocial Predictors of Aggression: Variable Selection and Model Building With Component-Wise Gradient Boosting.

PubMed

Suchting, Robert; Gowin, Joshua L; Green, Charles E; Walss-Bass, Consuelo; Lane, Scott D

2018-01-01

Rationale : Given datasets with a large or diverse set of predictors of aggression, machine learning (ML) provides efficient tools for identifying the most salient variables and building a parsimonious statistical model. ML techniques permit efficient exploration of data, have not been widely used in aggression research, and may have utility for those seeking prediction of aggressive behavior. Objectives : The present study examined predictors of aggression and constructed an optimized model using ML techniques. Predictors were derived from a dataset that included demographic, psychometric and genetic predictors, specifically FK506 binding protein 5 (FKBP5) polymorphisms, which have been shown to alter response to threatening stimuli, but have not been tested as predictors of aggressive behavior in adults. Methods : The data analysis approach utilized component-wise gradient boosting and model reduction via backward elimination to: (a) select variables from an initial set of 20 to build a model of trait aggression; and then (b) reduce that model to maximize parsimony and generalizability. Results : From a dataset of N = 47 participants, component-wise gradient boosting selected 8 of 20 possible predictors to model Buss-Perry Aggression Questionnaire (BPAQ) total score, with R 2 = 0.66. This model was simplified using backward elimination, retaining six predictors: smoking status, psychopathy (interpersonal manipulation and callous affect), childhood trauma (physical abuse and neglect), and the FKBP5_13 gene (rs1360780). The six-factor model approximated the initial eight-factor model at 99.4% of R 2 . Conclusions : Using an inductive data science approach, the gradient boosting model identified predictors consistent with previous experimental work in aggression; specifically psychopathy and trauma exposure. Additionally, allelic variants in FKBP5 were identified for the first time, but the relatively small sample size limits generality of results and calls for replication. This approach provides utility for the prediction of aggression behavior, particularly in the context of large multivariate datasets.

Application of GRA for Sustainable Material Selection and Evaluation Using LCA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakrishna, Kandasamy; Vinodh, Sekar; Sakthi Sanghvi, Vijayaselvan; Deepika, Chinadurai

2016-07-01

Material selection is identified as a successful key parameter in establishing any product to be sustainable, considering its end of life (EoL) characteristics. An accurate understanding of expected service conditions and environmental considerations are crucial in the selection of material plays a vital role with overwhelming customer expectations and stringent laws. Therefore, this article presents an integrated approach for sustainable material selection using grey relational analysis (GRA) considering the EoL disposal strategies with respect to an automotive product. GRA, an impact evaluation model measures the degree of similarity between the comparability (choice of material) sequence and reference (EoL strategies) sequence based on the relational grade. The ranking result shows that the outranking relationships in the order, ABS-REC > PP-INC > AL-REM > PP-LND > ABS-LND > ABS-INC > PU-LND > AL-REC > AL-LND > PU-INC > AL-INC. The best sustainable material selected was ABS and recycling was selected as the best EoL strategy with the grey relational value of 2.43856. The best material selected by this approach, ABS was evaluated for its viability using life cycle assessment and the estimated impacts also proved the practicability of the selected material highlighting the focus on dehumidification step in the manufacturing of the case product using this developed multi-criteria approach.

VARIABLE SELECTION IN NONPARAMETRIC ADDITIVE MODELS

PubMed Central

Huang, Jian; Horowitz, Joel L.; Wei, Fengrong

2010-01-01

We consider a nonparametric additive model of a conditional mean function in which the number of variables and additive components may be larger than the sample size but the number of nonzero additive components is “small” relative to the sample size. The statistical problem is to determine which additive components are nonzero. The additive components are approximated by truncated series expansions with B-spline bases. With this approximation, the problem of component selection becomes that of selecting the groups of coefficients in the expansion. We apply the adaptive group Lasso to select nonzero components, using the group Lasso to obtain an initial estimator and reduce the dimension of the problem. We give conditions under which the group Lasso selects a model whose number of components is comparable with the underlying model, and the adaptive group Lasso selects the nonzero components correctly with probability approaching one as the sample size increases and achieves the optimal rate of convergence. The results of Monte Carlo experiments show that the adaptive group Lasso procedure works well with samples of moderate size. A data example is used to illustrate the application of the proposed method. PMID:21127739

Operational validation of a multi-period and multi-criteria model conditioning approach for the prediction of rainfall-runoff processes in small forest catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, H.; Kim, S.

2012-12-01

Most of hydrologic models have generally been used to describe and represent the spatio-temporal variability of hydrological processes in the watershed scale. Though it is an obvious fact that hydrological responses have the time varying nature, optimal values of model parameters were normally considered as time invariants or constants in most cases. The recent paper of Choi and Beven (2007) presents a multi-period and multi-criteria model conditioning approach. The approach is based on the equifinality thesis within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. In their application, the behavioural TOPMODEL parameter sets are determined by several performance measures for global (annual) and short (30-days) periods, clustered using a Fuzzy C-means algorithm, into 15 types representing different hydrological conditions. Their study shows a good performance on the calibration of a rainfall-runoff model in a forest catchment, and also gives strong indications that it is uncommon to find model realizations that were behavioural over all multi-periods and all performance measures, and multi-period model conditioning approach may become new effective tool for predictions of hydrological processes in ungauged catchments. This study is a follow-up study on the Choi and Beven's (2007) model conditioning approach to test how the approach is effective for the prediction of rainfall-runoff responses in ungauged catchments. To achieve this purpose, 6 small forest catchments are selected among the several hydrological experimental catchments operated by Korea Forest Research Institute. In each catchment, long-term hydrological time series data varying from 10 to 30 years were available. The areas of the selected catchments range from 13.6 to 37.8 ha, and all areas are covered by coniferous or broad-leaves forests. The selected catchments locate in the southern coastal area to the northern part of South Korea. The bed rocks are Granite gneiss, Granite or Limestone. The study is progressed based on the followings. Firstly, hydrological time series of each catchment are sampled and clustered into multi-period having distinctly different temporal characteristics, and secondly, behavioural parameter distributions are determined in each multi-period based on the specification of multi-criteria model performance measures. Finally, behavioural parameter sets of each multi-period of single catchment are applied on the corresponding period of other catchments, and the cross-validations are conducted in this manner for all catchments The multi-period model conditioning approach is clearly effective to reduce the width of prediction limits, giving better model performance against the temporal variability of hydrological characteristics, and has enough potential to be the effective prediction tool for ungauged catchments. However, more advanced and continuous studies are needed to expand the application of this approach in prediction of hydrological responses in ungauged catchments,

Permeability-Selectivity Analysis of Microfiltration and Ultrafiltration Membranes: Effect of Pore Size and Shape Distribution and Membrane Stretching.

PubMed

Siddiqui, Muhammad Usama; Arif, Abul Fazal Muhammad; Bashmal, Salem

2016-08-06

We present a modeling approach to determine the permeability-selectivity tradeoff for microfiltration and ultrafiltration membranes with a distribution of pore sizes and pore shapes. Using the formulated permeability-selectivity model, the effect of pore aspect ratio and pore size distribution on the permeability-selectivity tradeoff of the membrane is analyzed. A finite element model is developed to study the effect of membrane stretching on the distribution of pore sizes and shapes in the stretched membrane. The effect of membrane stretching on the permeability-selectivity tradeoff of membranes is also analyzed. The results show that increasing pore aspect ratio improves membrane performance while increasing the width of pore size distribution deteriorates the performance. It was also found that the effect of membrane stretching on the permeability-selectivity tradeoff is greatly affected by the uniformity of pore distribution in the membrane. Stretching showed a positive shift in the permeability-selectivity tradeoff curve of membranes with well-dispersed pores while in the case of pore clustering, a negative shift in the permeability-selectivity tradeoff curve was observed.

The effect of interface properties on nickel base alloy composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groves, M.; Grossman, T.; Senemeier, M.; Wright, K.

1995-01-01

This program was performed to assess the extent to which mechanical behavior models can predict the properties of sapphire fiber/nickel aluminide matrix composites and help guide their development by defining improved combinations of matrix and interface coating. The program consisted of four tasks: 1) selection of the matrices and interface coating constituents using a modeling-based approach; 2) fabrication of the selected materials; 3) testing and evaluation of the materials; and 4) evaluation of the behavior models to develop recommendations. Ni-50Al and Ni-20AI-30Fe (a/o) matrices were selected which gave brittle and ductile behavior, respectively, and an interface coating of PVD YSZ was selected which provided strong bonding to the sapphire fiber. Significant fiber damage and strength loss was observed in the composites which made straightforward comparison of properties with models difficult. Nevertheless, the models selected generally provided property predictions which agreed well with results when fiber degradation was incorporated. The presence of a strong interface bond was felt to be detrimental in the NiAI MMC system where low toughness and low strength were observed.

Dissimilarity based Partial Least Squares (DPLS) for genomic prediction from SNPs.

PubMed

Singh, Priyanka; Engel, Jasper; Jansen, Jeroen; de Haan, Jorn; Buydens, Lutgarde Maria Celina

2016-05-04

Genomic prediction (GP) allows breeders to select plants and animals based on their breeding potential for desirable traits, without lengthy and expensive field trials or progeny testing. We have proposed to use Dissimilarity-based Partial Least Squares (DPLS) for GP. As a case study, we use the DPLS approach to predict Bacterial wilt (BW) in tomatoes using SNPs as predictors. The DPLS approach was compared with the Genomic Best-Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) and single-SNP regression with SNP as a fixed effect to assess the performance of DPLS. Eight genomic distance measures were used to quantify relationships between the tomato accessions from the SNPs. Subsequently, each of these distance measures was used to predict the BW using the DPLS prediction model. The DPLS model was found to be robust to the choice of distance measures; similar prediction performances were obtained for each distance measure. DPLS greatly outperformed the single-SNP regression approach, showing that BW is a comprehensive trait dependent on several loci. Next, the performance of the DPLS model was compared to that of GBLUP. Although GBLUP and DPLS are conceptually very different, the prediction quality (PQ) measured by DPLS models were similar to the prediction statistics obtained from GBLUP. A considerable advantage of DPLS is that the genotype-phenotype relationship can easily be visualized in a 2-D scatter plot. This so-called score-plot provides breeders an insight to select candidates for their future breeding program. DPLS is a highly appropriate method for GP. The model prediction performance was similar to the GBLUP and far better than the single-SNP approach. The proposed method can be used in combination with a wide range of genomic dissimilarity measures and genotype representations such as allele-count, haplotypes or allele-intensity values. Additionally, the data can be insightfully visualized by the DPLS model, allowing for selection of desirable candidates from the breeding experiments. In this study, we have assessed the DPLS performance on a single trait.

Variable selection with stepwise and best subset approaches

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

While purposeful selection is performed partly by software and partly by hand, the stepwise and best subset approaches are automatically performed by software. Two R functions stepAIC() and bestglm() are well designed for stepwise and best subset regression, respectively. The stepAIC() function begins with a full or null model, and methods for stepwise regression can be specified in the direction argument with character values “forward”, “backward” and “both”. The bestglm() function begins with a data frame containing explanatory variables and response variables. The response variable should be in the last column. Varieties of goodness-of-fit criteria can be specified in the IC argument. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) usually results in more parsimonious model than the Akaike information criterion. PMID:27162786

Risk adjustment model of credit life insurance using a genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saputra, A.; Sukono; Rusyaman, E.

2018-03-01

In managing the risk of credit life insurance, insurance company should acknowledge the character of the risks to predict future losses. Risk characteristics can be learned in a claim distribution model. There are two standard approaches in designing the distribution model of claims over the insurance period i.e, collective risk model and individual risk model. In the collective risk model, the claim arises when risk occurs is called individual claim, accumulation of individual claim during a period of insurance is called an aggregate claim. The aggregate claim model may be formed by large model and a number of individual claims. How the measurement of insurance risk with the premium model approach and whether this approach is appropriate for estimating the potential losses occur in the future. In order to solve the problem Genetic Algorithm with Roulette Wheel Selection is used.

Pharmacophore modeling for identification of anti-IGF-1R drugs and in-vitro validation of fulvestrant as a potential inhibitor

PubMed Central

Hanif, Rumeza; Jabeen, Ishrat; Mansoor, Qaisar; Ismail, Muhammad

2018-01-01

Insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor (IGF-1R) is an important therapeutic target for breast cancer treatment. The alteration in the IGF-1R associated signaling network due to various genetic and environmental factors leads the system towards metastasis. The pharmacophore modeling and logical approaches have been applied to analyze the behaviour of complex regulatory network involved in breast cancer. A total of 23 inhibitors were selected to generate ligand based pharmacophore using the tool, Molecular Operating Environment (MOE). The best model consisted of three pharmacophore features: aromatic hydrophobic (HyD/Aro), hydrophobic (HyD) and hydrogen bond acceptor (HBA). This model was validated against World drug bank (WDB) database screening to identify 189 hits with the required pharmacophore features and was further screened by using Lipinski positive compounds. Finally, the most effective drug, fulvestrant, was selected. Fulvestrant is a selective estrogen receptor down regulator (SERD). This inhibitor was further studied by using both in-silico and in-vitro approaches that showed the targeted effect of fulvestrant in ER+ MCF-7 cells. Results suggested that fulvestrant has selective cytotoxic effect and a dose dependent response on IRS-1, IGF-1R, PDZK1 and ER-α in MCF-7 cells. PDZK1 can be an important inhibitory target using fulvestrant because it directly regulates IGF-1R. PMID:29787591

Pharmacophore modeling for identification of anti-IGF-1R drugs and in-vitro validation of fulvestrant as a potential inhibitor.

PubMed

Khalid, Samra; Hanif, Rumeza; Jabeen, Ishrat; Mansoor, Qaisar; Ismail, Muhammad

2018-01-01

Insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor (IGF-1R) is an important therapeutic target for breast cancer treatment. The alteration in the IGF-1R associated signaling network due to various genetic and environmental factors leads the system towards metastasis. The pharmacophore modeling and logical approaches have been applied to analyze the behaviour of complex regulatory network involved in breast cancer. A total of 23 inhibitors were selected to generate ligand based pharmacophore using the tool, Molecular Operating Environment (MOE). The best model consisted of three pharmacophore features: aromatic hydrophobic (HyD/Aro), hydrophobic (HyD) and hydrogen bond acceptor (HBA). This model was validated against World drug bank (WDB) database screening to identify 189 hits with the required pharmacophore features and was further screened by using Lipinski positive compounds. Finally, the most effective drug, fulvestrant, was selected. Fulvestrant is a selective estrogen receptor down regulator (SERD). This inhibitor was further studied by using both in-silico and in-vitro approaches that showed the targeted effect of fulvestrant in ER+ MCF-7 cells. Results suggested that fulvestrant has selective cytotoxic effect and a dose dependent response on IRS-1, IGF-1R, PDZK1 and ER-α in MCF-7 cells. PDZK1 can be an important inhibitory target using fulvestrant because it directly regulates IGF-1R.

Breeding Jatropha curcas by genomic selection: A pilot assessment of the accuracy of predictive models.

PubMed

Azevedo Peixoto, Leonardo de; Laviola, Bruno Galvêas; Alves, Alexandre Alonso; Rosado, Tatiana Barbosa; Bhering, Leonardo Lopes

2017-01-01

Genomic wide selection is a promising approach for improving the selection accuracy in plant breeding, particularly in species with long life cycles, such as Jatropha. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to estimate the genetic parameters for grain yield (GY) and the weight of 100 seeds (W100S) using restricted maximum likelihood (REML); to compare the performance of GWS methods to predict GY and W100S; and to estimate how many markers are needed to train the GWS model to obtain the maximum accuracy. Eight GWS models were compared in terms of predictive ability. The impact that the marker density had on the predictive ability was investigated using a varying number of markers, from 2 to 1,248. Because the genetic variance between evaluated genotypes was significant, it was possible to obtain selection gain. All of the GWS methods tested in this study can be used to predict GY and W100S in Jatropha. A training model fitted using 1,000 and 800 markers is sufficient to capture the maximum genetic variance and, consequently, maximum prediction ability of GY and W100S, respectively. This study demonstrated the applicability of genome-wide prediction to identify useful genetic sources of GY and W100S for Jatropha breeding. Further research is needed to confirm the applicability of the proposed approach to other complex traits.

Genetic parameters for carcass traits and body weight using a Bayesian approach in the Canchim cattle.

PubMed

Meirelles, S L C; Mokry, F B; Espasandín, A C; Dias, M A D; Baena, M M; de A Regitano, L C

2016-06-10

Correlation between genetic parameters and factors such as backfat thickness (BFT), rib eye area (REA), and body weight (BW) were estimated for Canchim beef cattle raised in natural pastures of Brazil. Data from 1648 animals were analyzed using multi-trait (BFT, REA, and BW) animal models by the Bayesian approach. This model included the effects of contemporary group, age, and individual heterozygosity as covariates. In addition, direct additive genetic and random residual effects were also analyzed. Heritability estimated for BFT (0.16), REA (0.50), and BW (0.44) indicated their potential for genetic improvements and response to selection processes. Furthermore, genetic correlations between BW and the remaining traits were high (P > 0.50), suggesting that selection for BW could improve REA and BFT. On the other hand, genetic correlation between BFT and REA was low (P = 0.39 ± 0.17), and included considerable variations, suggesting that these traits can be jointly included as selection criteria without influencing each other. We found that REA and BFT responded to the selection processes, as measured by ultrasound. Therefore, selection for yearling weight results in changes in REA and BFT.

Predicting Speech Intelligibility with a Multiple Speech Subsystems Approach in Children with Cerebral Palsy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Jimin; Hustad, Katherine C.; Weismer, Gary

2014-01-01

Purpose: Speech acoustic characteristics of children with cerebral palsy (CP) were examined with a multiple speech subsystems approach; speech intelligibility was evaluated using a prediction model in which acoustic measures were selected to represent three speech subsystems. Method: Nine acoustic variables reflecting different subsystems, and…

Going Overseas for Higher Education: The Asian Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cummings, William K.

1984-01-01

Focuses on national differences in the numbers of students from selected Asian countries who undertake higher education abroad. Contrasts the development approach and the world-systems approach in national educational systems. Compares and presents a cross-sectional model of patterns, national levels, and determinants of sending students abroad.…

Teaching Reading to Learning Disabled Children: A Fourth Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bateman, Barbara

The evidence presented in this paper suggests that deficits in selective skills are primary factors in learning disabilities, and that aptitude/treatment interaction models may be useful in devising teaching methods for the reading instruction of learning disabled children. After reviewing various approaches to teaching reading to learning…

A modular approach for item response theory modeling with the R package flirt.

PubMed

Jeon, Minjeong; Rijmen, Frank

2016-06-01

The new R package flirt is introduced for flexible item response theory (IRT) modeling of psychological, educational, and behavior assessment data. flirt integrates a generalized linear and nonlinear mixed modeling framework with graphical model theory. The graphical model framework allows for efficient maximum likelihood estimation. The key feature of flirt is its modular approach to facilitate convenient and flexible model specifications. Researchers can construct customized IRT models by simply selecting various modeling modules, such as parametric forms, number of dimensions, item and person covariates, person groups, link functions, etc. In this paper, we describe major features of flirt and provide examples to illustrate how flirt works in practice.

Sustainable Supplier Performance Evaluation and Selection with Neofuzzy TOPSIS Method

PubMed Central

Chaharsooghi, S. K.; Ashrafi, Mehdi

2014-01-01

Supplier selection plays an important role in the supply chain management and traditional criteria such as price, quality, and flexibility are considered for supplier performance evaluation in researches. In recent years sustainability has received more attention in the supply chain management literature with triple bottom line (TBL) describing the sustainability in supply chain management with social, environmental, and economic initiatives. This paper explores sustainability in supply chain management and examines the problem of identifying a new model for supplier selection based on extended model of TBL approach in supply chain by presenting fuzzy multicriteria method. Linguistic values of experts' subjective preferences are expressed with fuzzy numbers and Neofuzzy TOPSIS is proposed for finding the best solution of supplier selection problem. Numerical results show that the proposed model is efficient for integrating sustainability in supplier selection problem. The importance of using complimentary aspects of sustainability and Neofuzzy TOPSIS concept in sustainable supplier selection process is shown with sensitivity analysis. PMID:27379267

Sustainable Supplier Performance Evaluation and Selection with Neofuzzy TOPSIS Method.

PubMed

Chaharsooghi, S K; Ashrafi, Mehdi

2014-01-01

Supplier selection plays an important role in the supply chain management and traditional criteria such as price, quality, and flexibility are considered for supplier performance evaluation in researches. In recent years sustainability has received more attention in the supply chain management literature with triple bottom line (TBL) describing the sustainability in supply chain management with social, environmental, and economic initiatives. This paper explores sustainability in supply chain management and examines the problem of identifying a new model for supplier selection based on extended model of TBL approach in supply chain by presenting fuzzy multicriteria method. Linguistic values of experts' subjective preferences are expressed with fuzzy numbers and Neofuzzy TOPSIS is proposed for finding the best solution of supplier selection problem. Numerical results show that the proposed model is efficient for integrating sustainability in supplier selection problem. The importance of using complimentary aspects of sustainability and Neofuzzy TOPSIS concept in sustainable supplier selection process is shown with sensitivity analysis.

Learning from Past Classification Errors: Exploring Methods for Improving the Performance of a Deep Learning-based Building Extraction Model through Quantitative Analysis of Commission Errors for Optimal Sample Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swan, B.; Laverdiere, M.; Yang, L.

2017-12-01

In the past five years, deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) have been increasingly favored for computer vision applications due to their high accuracy and ability to generalize well in very complex problems; however, details of how they function and in turn how they may be optimized are still imperfectly understood. In particular, their complex and highly nonlinear network architecture, including many hidden layers and self-learned parameters, as well as their mathematical implications, presents open questions about how to effectively select training data. Without knowledge of the exact ways the model processes and transforms its inputs, intuition alone may fail as a guide to selecting highly relevant training samples. Working in the context of improving a CNN-based building extraction model used for the LandScan USA gridded population dataset, we have approached this problem by developing a semi-supervised, highly-scalable approach to select training samples from a dataset of identified commission errors. Due to the large scope this project, tens of thousands of potential samples could be derived from identified commission errors. To efficiently trim those samples down to a manageable and effective set for creating additional training sample, we statistically summarized the spectral characteristics of areas with rates of commission errors at the image tile level and grouped these tiles using affinity propagation. Highly representative members of each commission error cluster were then used to select sites for training sample creation. The model will be incrementally re-trained with the new training data to allow for an assessment of how the addition of different types of samples affects the model performance, such as precision and recall rates. By using quantitative analysis and data clustering techniques to select highly relevant training samples, we hope to improve model performance in a manner that is resource efficient, both in terms of training process and in sample creation.

Model selection and parameter estimation in structural dynamics using approximate Bayesian computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Abdessalem, Anis; Dervilis, Nikolaos; Wagg, David; Worden, Keith

2018-01-01

This paper will introduce the use of the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm for model selection and parameter estimation in structural dynamics. ABC is a likelihood-free method typically used when the likelihood function is either intractable or cannot be approached in a closed form. To circumvent the evaluation of the likelihood function, simulation from a forward model is at the core of the ABC algorithm. The algorithm offers the possibility to use different metrics and summary statistics representative of the data to carry out Bayesian inference. The efficacy of the algorithm in structural dynamics is demonstrated through three different illustrative examples of nonlinear system identification: cubic and cubic-quintic models, the Bouc-Wen model and the Duffing oscillator. The obtained results suggest that ABC is a promising alternative to deal with model selection and parameter estimation issues, specifically for systems with complex behaviours.

Selection of latent variables for multiple mixed-outcome models

PubMed Central

ZHOU, LING; LIN, HUAZHEN; SONG, XINYUAN; LI, YI

2014-01-01

Latent variable models have been widely used for modeling the dependence structure of multiple outcomes data. However, the formulation of a latent variable model is often unknown a priori, the misspecification will distort the dependence structure and lead to unreliable model inference. Moreover, multiple outcomes with varying types present enormous analytical challenges. In this paper, we present a class of general latent variable models that can accommodate mixed types of outcomes. We propose a novel selection approach that simultaneously selects latent variables and estimates parameters. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal and has the oracle property. The practical utility of the methods is confirmed via simulations as well as an application to the analysis of the World Values Survey, a global research project that explores peoples’ values and beliefs and the social and personal characteristics that might influence them. PMID:27642219

Efficient spiking neural network model of pattern motion selectivity in visual cortex.

PubMed

Beyeler, Michael; Richert, Micah; Dutt, Nikil D; Krichmar, Jeffrey L

2014-07-01

Simulating large-scale models of biological motion perception is challenging, due to the required memory to store the network structure and the computational power needed to quickly solve the neuronal dynamics. A low-cost yet high-performance approach to simulating large-scale neural network models in real-time is to leverage the parallel processing capability of graphics processing units (GPUs). Based on this approach, we present a two-stage model of visual area MT that we believe to be the first large-scale spiking network to demonstrate pattern direction selectivity. In this model, component-direction-selective (CDS) cells in MT linearly combine inputs from V1 cells that have spatiotemporal receptive fields according to the motion energy model of Simoncelli and Heeger. Pattern-direction-selective (PDS) cells in MT are constructed by pooling over MT CDS cells with a wide range of preferred directions. Responses of our model neurons are comparable to electrophysiological results for grating and plaid stimuli as well as speed tuning. The behavioral response of the network in a motion discrimination task is in agreement with psychophysical data. Moreover, our implementation outperforms a previous implementation of the motion energy model by orders of magnitude in terms of computational speed and memory usage. The full network, which comprises 153,216 neurons and approximately 40 million synapses, processes 20 frames per second of a 40 × 40 input video in real-time using a single off-the-shelf GPU. To promote the use of this algorithm among neuroscientists and computer vision researchers, the source code for the simulator, the network, and analysis scripts are publicly available.

A mixture model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data.

PubMed

McLachlan, G J; Bean, R W; Peel, D

2002-03-01

This paper introduces the software EMMIX-GENE that has been developed for the specific purpose of a model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data, in particular, of tissue samples on a very large number of genes. The latter is a nonstandard problem in parametric cluster analysis because the dimension of the feature space (the number of genes) is typically much greater than the number of tissues. A feasible approach is provided by first selecting a subset of the genes relevant for the clustering of the tissue samples by fitting mixtures of t distributions to rank the genes in order of increasing size of the likelihood ratio statistic for the test of one versus two components in the mixture model. The imposition of a threshold on the likelihood ratio statistic used in conjunction with a threshold on the size of a cluster allows the selection of a relevant set of genes. However, even this reduced set of genes will usually be too large for a normal mixture model to be fitted directly to the tissues, and so the use of mixtures of factor analyzers is exploited to reduce effectively the dimension of the feature space of genes. The usefulness of the EMMIX-GENE approach for the clustering of tissue samples is demonstrated on two well-known data sets on colon and leukaemia tissues. For both data sets, relevant subsets of the genes are able to be selected that reveal interesting clusterings of the tissues that are either consistent with the external classification of the tissues or with background and biological knowledge of these sets. EMMIX-GENE is available at http://www.maths.uq.edu.au/~gjm/emmix-gene/

Demographically-Based Evaluation of Genomic Regions under Selection in Domestic Dogs

PubMed Central

Freedman, Adam H.; Schweizer, Rena M.; Ortega-Del Vecchyo, Diego; Han, Eunjung; Davis, Brian W.; Gronau, Ilan; Silva, Pedro M.; Galaverni, Marco; Fan, Zhenxin; Marx, Peter; Lorente-Galdos, Belen; Ramirez, Oscar; Hormozdiari, Farhad; Alkan, Can; Vilà, Carles; Squire, Kevin; Geffen, Eli; Kusak, Josip; Boyko, Adam R.; Parker, Heidi G.; Lee, Clarence; Tadigotla, Vasisht; Siepel, Adam; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Harkins, Timothy T.; Nelson, Stanley F.; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Ostrander, Elaine A.; Wayne, Robert K.; Novembre, John

2016-01-01

Controlling for background demographic effects is important for accurately identifying loci that have recently undergone positive selection. To date, the effects of demography have not yet been explicitly considered when identifying loci under selection during dog domestication. To investigate positive selection on the dog lineage early in the domestication, we examined patterns of polymorphism in six canid genomes that were previously used to infer a demographic model of dog domestication. Using an inferred demographic model, we computed false discovery rates (FDR) and identified 349 outlier regions consistent with positive selection at a low FDR. The signals in the top 100 regions were frequently centered on candidate genes related to brain function and behavior, including LHFPL3, CADM2, GRIK3, SH3GL2, MBP, PDE7B, NTAN1, and GLRA1. These regions contained significant enrichments in behavioral ontology categories. The 3rd top hit, CCRN4L, plays a major role in lipid metabolism, that is supported by additional metabolism related candidates revealed in our scan, including SCP2D1 and PDXC1. Comparing our method to an empirical outlier approach that does not directly account for demography, we found only modest overlaps between the two methods, with 60% of empirical outliers having no overlap with our demography-based outlier detection approach. Demography-aware approaches have lower-rates of false discovery. Our top candidates for selection, in addition to expanding the set of neurobehavioral candidate genes, include genes related to lipid metabolism, suggesting a dietary target of selection that was important during the period when proto-dogs hunted and fed alongside hunter-gatherers. PMID:26943675

Use of Longitudinal Data in Genetic Studies in the Genome-wide Association Studies Era: Summary of Group 14

PubMed Central

Kerner, Berit; North, Kari E; Fallin, M Daniele

2010-01-01

Participants analyzed actual and simulated longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study for various metabolic and cardiovascular traits. The genetic information incorporated into these investigations ranged from selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms to genome-wide association arrays. Genotypes were incorporated using a broad range of methodological approaches including conditional logistic regression, linear mixed models, generalized estimating equations, linear growth curve estimation, growth modeling, growth mixture modeling, population attributable risk fraction based on survival functions under the proportional hazards models, and multivariate adaptive splines for the analysis of longitudinal data. The specific scientific questions addressed by these different approaches also varied, ranging from a more precise definition of the phenotype, bias reduction in control selection, estimation of effect sizes and genotype associated risk, to direct incorporation of genetic data into longitudinal modeling approaches and the exploration of population heterogeneity with regard to longitudinal trajectories. The group reached several overall conclusions: 1) The additional information provided by longitudinal data may be useful in genetic analyses. 2) The precision of the phenotype definition as well as control selection in nested designs may be improved, especially if traits demonstrate a trend over time or have strong age-of-onset effects. 3) Analyzing genetic data stratified for high-risk subgroups defined by a unique development over time could be useful for the detection of rare mutations in common multi-factorial diseases. 4) Estimation of the population impact of genomic risk variants could be more precise. The challenges and computational complexity demanded by genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism data were also discussed. PMID:19924713

The Media Center & the Internet: Selection, Supervision and Staff Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Mary Alice

1999-01-01

The Internet's unique scope, characteristics and potential make it a vehicle for media specialists to model good use of information technology and provide far-reaching instructional leadership in schools. This article focuses on approaches to Web site selection, supervision, and staff development for effective use of the Internet in schools. (AEF)

D-Fussion: A Semantic Selective Disssemination of Information Service for the Research Community in Digital Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morales-del-Castillo, Jose Manuel; Peis, Eduardo; Moreno, Juan Manuel; Herrera-Viedma, Enrique

2009-01-01

Introduction: In this paper we propose a multi-agent Selective Dissemination of Information service to improve the research community's access to digital library resources. The service also provides a new recommendation approach to satisfy researchers' specific information requirements. Method: The service model is developed by jointly applying…

Embedded Multiprocessor Technology for VHSIC Insertion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayes, Paul J.

1990-01-01

Viewgraphs on embedded multiprocessor technology for VHSIC insertion are presented. The objective was to develop multiprocessor system technology providing user-selectable fault tolerance, increased throughput, and ease of application representation for concurrent operation. The approach was to develop graph management mapping theory for proper performance, model multiprocessor performance, and demonstrate performance in selected hardware systems.

An Analysis of the EPA Report on Pipeline Renewal Decision Making Tools and Approaches

EPA Science Inventory

Few DSS are commercially available for technology selection as most utilities make decisions based on in-house and consultant expertise (Matthews et al., 2011). This review presents some of the models proposed over the past 15 years for selecting technologies in the U.S. and wor...

Predicting chemical bioavailability using microarray gene expression data and regression modeling: A tale of three explosive compounds.

PubMed

Gong, Ping; Nan, Xiaofei; Barker, Natalie D; Boyd, Robert E; Chen, Yixin; Wilkins, Dawn E; Johnson, David R; Suedel, Burton C; Perkins, Edward J

2016-03-08

Chemical bioavailability is an important dose metric in environmental risk assessment. Although many approaches have been used to evaluate bioavailability, not a single approach is free from limitations. Previously, we developed a new genomics-based approach that integrated microarray technology and regression modeling for predicting bioavailability (tissue residue) of explosives compounds in exposed earthworms. In the present study, we further compared 18 different regression models and performed variable selection simultaneously with parameter estimation. This refined approach was applied to both previously collected and newly acquired earthworm microarray gene expression datasets for three explosive compounds. Our results demonstrate that a prediction accuracy of R(2) = 0.71-0.82 was achievable at a relatively low model complexity with as few as 3-10 predictor genes per model. These results are much more encouraging than our previous ones. This study has demonstrated that our approach is promising for bioavailability measurement, which warrants further studies of mixed contamination scenarios in field settings.

Model selection for pion photoproduction

DOE PAGES

Landay, J.; Doring, M.; Fernandez-Ramirez, C.; ...

2017-01-12

Partial-wave analysis of meson and photon-induced reactions is needed to enable the comparison of many theoretical approaches to data. In both energy-dependent and independent parametrizations of partial waves, the selection of the model amplitude is crucial. Principles of the S matrix are implemented to a different degree in different approaches; but a many times overlooked aspect concerns the selection of undetermined coefficients and functional forms for fitting, leading to a minimal yet sufficient parametrization. We present an analysis of low-energy neutral pion photoproduction using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) in combination with criteria from information theory andmore » K-fold cross validation. These methods are not yet widely known in the analysis of excited hadrons but will become relevant in the era of precision spectroscopy. As a result, the principle is first illustrated with synthetic data; then, its feasibility for real data is demonstrated by analyzing the latest available measurements of differential cross sections (dσ/dΩ), photon-beam asymmetries (Σ), and target asymmetry differential cross sections (dσ T/d≡Tdσ/dΩ) in the low-energy regime.« less

Orthotopic mouse models for the preclinical and translational study of targeted therapies against metastatic human thyroid carcinoma with BRAFV600E or wild-type BRAF

PubMed Central

Antonello, ZA; Nucera, C

2015-01-01

Molecular signature of advanced and metastatic thyroid carcinoma involves deregulation of multiple fundamental pathways activated in the tumor microenvironment. They include BRAFV600E and AKT that affect tumor initiation, progression and metastasis. Human thyroid cancer orthotopic mouse models are based on human cell lines that generally harbor genetic alterations found in human thyroid cancers. They can reproduce in vivo and in situ (into the thyroid) many features of aggressive and refractory human advanced thyroid carcinomas, including local invasion and metastasis. Humanized orthotopic mouse models seem to be ideal and commonly used for preclinical and translational studies of compounds and therapies not only because they may mimic key aspects of human diseases (e.g. metastasis), but also for their reproducibility. In addition, they might provide the possibility to evaluate systemic effects of treatments. So far, human thyroid cancer in vivo models were mainly used to test single compounds, non selective and selective. Despite the greater antitumor activity and lower toxicity obtained with different selective drugs in respect to non-selective ones, most of them are only able to delay disease progression, which ultimately could restart with similar aggressive behavior. Aggressive thyroid tumors (for example, anaplastic or poorly differentiated thyroid carcinoma) carry several complex genetic alterations that are likely cooperating to promote disease progression and might confer resistance to single-compound approaches. Orthotopic models of human thyroid cancer also hold the potential to be good models for testing novel combinatorial therapies. In this article, we will summarize results on preclinical testing of selective and nonselective single compounds in orthotopic mouse models based on validated human thyroid cancer cell lines harboring the BRAFV600E mutation or with wild-type BRAF. Furthermore, we will discuss the potential use of this model also for combinatorial approaches, which are expected to take place in the upcoming human thyroid cancer basic and clinical research. PMID:24362526

Identifiability and Performance Analysis of Output Over-sampling Approach to Direct Closed-loop Identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Lianming; Sano, Akira

Output over-sampling based closed-loop identification algorithm is investigated in this paper. Some instinct properties of the continuous stochastic noise and the plant input, output in the over-sampling approach are analyzed, and they are used to demonstrate the identifiability in the over-sampling approach and to evaluate its identification performance. Furthermore, the selection of plant model order, the asymptotic variance of estimated parameters and the asymptotic variance of frequency response of the estimated model are also explored. It shows that the over-sampling approach can guarantee the identifiability and improve the performance of closed-loop identification greatly.

Development and test of selected model pedestrian safety regulations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-04-01

Two model regulations to remove parking--one from suburban streets in daylight hours and one on the last 50 feet of the approach to crosswalks--were designed in previous work to prevent pedestrian dart and dash accidents by removing screening vehicle...

Watershed Management Tool for Selection and Spacial Allocation of Non-Point Source Pollution Control Practices

EPA Science Inventory

Distributed-parameter watershed models are often utilized for evaluating the effectiveness of sediment and nutrient abatement strategies through the traditional {calibrate→ validate→ predict} approach. The applicability of the method is limited due to modeling approximations. In ...

Variable selection in subdistribution hazard frailty models with competing risks data

PubMed Central

Do Ha, Il; Lee, Minjung; Oh, Seungyoung; Jeong, Jong-Hyeon; Sylvester, Richard; Lee, Youngjo

2014-01-01

The proportional subdistribution hazards model (i.e. Fine-Gray model) has been widely used for analyzing univariate competing risks data. Recently, this model has been extended to clustered competing risks data via frailty. To the best of our knowledge, however, there has been no literature on variable selection method for such competing risks frailty models. In this paper, we propose a simple but unified procedure via a penalized h-likelihood (HL) for variable selection of fixed effects in a general class of subdistribution hazard frailty models, in which random effects may be shared or correlated. We consider three penalty functions (LASSO, SCAD and HL) in our variable selection procedure. We show that the proposed method can be easily implemented using a slight modification to existing h-likelihood estimation approaches. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed procedure using the HL penalty performs well, providing a higher probability of choosing the true model than LASSO and SCAD methods without losing prediction accuracy. The usefulness of the new method is illustrated using two actual data sets from multi-center clinical trials. PMID:25042872

Rival approaches to mathematical modelling in immunology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrew, Sarah M.; Baker, Christopher T. H.; Bocharov, Gennady A.

2007-08-01

In order to formulate quantitatively correct mathematical models of the immune system, one requires an understanding of immune processes and familiarity with a range of mathematical techniques. Selection of an appropriate model requires a number of decisions to be made, including a choice of the modelling objectives, strategies and techniques and the types of model considered as candidate models. The authors adopt a multidisciplinary perspective.

A model for plant lighting system selection.

PubMed

Ciolkosz, D E; Albright, L D; Sager, J C; Langhans, R W

2002-01-01

A decision model is presented that compares lighting systems for a plant growth scenario and chooses the most appropriate system from a given set of possible choices. The model utilizes a Multiple Attribute Utility Theory approach, and incorporates expert input and performance simulations to calculate a utility value for each lighting system being considered. The system with the highest utility is deemed the most appropriate system. The model was applied to a greenhouse scenario, and analyses were conducted to test the model's output for validity. Parameter variation indicates that the model performed as expected. Analysis of model output indicates that differences in utility among the candidate lighting systems were sufficiently large to give confidence that the model's order of selection was valid.

Model-Averaged ℓ1 Regularization using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Composition

PubMed Central

Fraley, Chris; Percival, Daniel

2014-01-01

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is an effective technique for addressing model uncertainty in variable selection problems. However, current BMA approaches have computational difficulty dealing with data in which there are many more measurements (variables) than samples. This paper presents a method for combining ℓ1 regularization and Markov chain Monte Carlo model composition techniques for BMA. By treating the ℓ1 regularization path as a model space, we propose a method to resolve the model uncertainty issues arising in model averaging from solution path point selection. We show that this method is computationally and empirically effective for regression and classification in high-dimensional datasets. We apply our technique in simulations, as well as to some applications that arise in genomics. PMID:25642001

EFS: an ensemble feature selection tool implemented as R-package and web-application.

PubMed

Neumann, Ursula; Genze, Nikita; Heider, Dominik

2017-01-01

Feature selection methods aim at identifying a subset of features that improve the prediction performance of subsequent classification models and thereby also simplify their interpretability. Preceding studies demonstrated that single feature selection methods can have specific biases, whereas an ensemble feature selection has the advantage to alleviate and compensate for these biases. The software EFS (Ensemble Feature Selection) makes use of multiple feature selection methods and combines their normalized outputs to a quantitative ensemble importance. Currently, eight different feature selection methods have been integrated in EFS, which can be used separately or combined in an ensemble. EFS identifies relevant features while compensating specific biases of single methods due to an ensemble approach. Thereby, EFS can improve the prediction accuracy and interpretability in subsequent binary classification models. EFS can be downloaded as an R-package from CRAN or used via a web application at http://EFS.heiderlab.de.

Linear and nonlinear variable selection in competing risks data.

PubMed

Ren, Xiaowei; Li, Shanshan; Shen, Changyu; Yu, Zhangsheng

2018-06-15

Subdistribution hazard model for competing risks data has been applied extensively in clinical researches. Variable selection methods of linear effects for competing risks data have been studied in the past decade. There is no existing work on selection of potential nonlinear effects for subdistribution hazard model. We propose a two-stage procedure to select the linear and nonlinear covariate(s) simultaneously and estimate the selected covariate effect(s). We use spectral decomposition approach to distinguish the linear and nonlinear parts of each covariate and adaptive LASSO to select each of the 2 components. Extensive numerical studies are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed procedure can achieve good selection accuracy in the first stage and small estimation biases in the second stage. The proposed method is applied to analyze a cardiovascular disease data set with competing death causes. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Penalized regression procedures for variable selection in the potential outcomes framework

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Debashis; Zhu, Yeying; Coffman, Donna L.

2015-01-01

A recent topic of much interest in causal inference is model selection. In this article, we describe a framework in which to consider penalized regression approaches to variable selection for causal effects. The framework leads to a simple ‘impute, then select’ class of procedures that is agnostic to the type of imputation algorithm as well as penalized regression used. It also clarifies how model selection involves a multivariate regression model for causal inference problems, and that these methods can be applied for identifying subgroups in which treatment effects are homogeneous. Analogies and links with the literature on machine learning methods, missing data and imputation are drawn. A difference LASSO algorithm is defined, along with its multiple imputation analogues. The procedures are illustrated using a well-known right heart catheterization dataset. PMID:25628185

Mapping primary health care renewal in South America.

PubMed

Acosta Ramírez, Naydú; Giovanella, Ligia; Vega Romero, Roman; Tejerina Silva, Herland; de Almeida, Patty Fidelis; Ríos, Gilberto; Goede, Hedwig; Oliveira, Suelen

2016-06-01

Primary health care (PHC) renewal processes are currently ongoing in South America (SA), but their characteristics have not been systematically described. The study aimed to describe and contrast the PHC approaches being implemented in SA to provide knowledge of current conceptions, models and challenges. This multiple case study used a qualitative approach with technical visits to health ministries in order to apply key-informant interviews of 129 PHC national policy makers and 53 local managers, as well as field observation of 57 selected PHC providers and document analysis, using a common matrix for data collection and analysis. PHC approaches were analysed by triangulating sources using the following categories: PHC philosophy and conception, service provision organization, intersectoral collaboration and social participation. Primary health care models were identified in association with existing health system types and the dynamics of PHC renewal in each country. A neo-selective model was found in three countries where coverage is segmented by private and public regimes; here, individual and collective care are separated. A comprehensive approach similar to the Alma-Ata model was found in seven countries where the public sector predominates and individual, family and community care are coordinated under the responsibility of the same health care team. The process of implementing a renewed PHC approach is affected by how health systems are funded and organized. Both models face many obstacles. In addition, care system organization, intersectoral coordination and social participation are weak in most of the countries. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Analytical slave-spin mean-field approach to orbital selective Mott insulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komijani, Yashar; Kotliar, Gabriel

2017-09-01

We use the slave-spin mean-field approach to study particle-hole symmetric one- and two-band Hubbard models in the presence of Hund's coupling interaction. By analytical analysis of the Hamiltonian, we show that the locking of the two orbitals vs orbital selective Mott transition can be formulated within a Landau-Ginzburg framework. By applying the slave-spin mean field to impurity problems, we are able to make a correspondence between impurity and lattice. We also consider the stability of the orbital selective Mott phase to the hybridization between the orbitals and study the limitations of the slave-spin method for treating interorbital tunnelings in the case of multiorbital Bethe lattices with particle-hole symmetry.

A Novel Continuous Blood Pressure Estimation Approach Based on Data Mining Techniques.

PubMed

Miao, Fen; Fu, Nan; Zhang, Yuan-Ting; Ding, Xiao-Rong; Hong, Xi; He, Qingyun; Li, Ye

2017-11-01

Continuous blood pressure (BP) estimation using pulse transit time (PTT) is a promising method for unobtrusive BP measurement. However, the accuracy of this approach must be improved for it to be viable for a wide range of applications. This study proposes a novel continuous BP estimation approach that combines data mining techniques with a traditional mechanism-driven model. First, 14 features derived from simultaneous electrocardiogram and photoplethysmogram signals were extracted for beat-to-beat BP estimation. A genetic algorithm-based feature selection method was then used to select BP indicators for each subject. Multivariate linear regression and support vector regression were employed to develop the BP model. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed approach were validated for static, dynamic, and follow-up performance. Experimental results based on 73 subjects showed that the proposed approach exhibited excellent accuracy in static BP estimation, with a correlation coefficient and mean error of 0.852 and -0.001 ± 3.102 mmHg for systolic BP, and 0.790 and -0.004 ± 2.199 mmHg for diastolic BP. Similar performance was observed for dynamic BP estimation. The robustness results indicated that the estimation accuracy was lower by a certain degree one day after model construction but was relatively stable from one day to six months after construction. The proposed approach is superior to the state-of-the-art PTT-based model for an approximately 2-mmHg reduction in the standard derivation at different time intervals, thus providing potentially novel insights for cuffless BP estimation.

Multiple model analysis with discriminatory data collection (MMA-DDC): A new method for improving measurement selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kikuchi, C.; Ferre, P. A.; Vrugt, J. A.

2011-12-01

Hydrologic models are developed, tested, and refined based on the ability of those models to explain available hydrologic data. The optimization of model performance based upon mismatch between model outputs and real world observations has been extensively studied. However, identification of plausible models is sensitive not only to the models themselves - including model structure and model parameters - but also to the location, timing, type, and number of observations used in model calibration. Therefore, careful selection of hydrologic observations has the potential to significantly improve the performance of hydrologic models. In this research, we seek to reduce prediction uncertainty through optimization of the data collection process. A new tool - multiple model analysis with discriminatory data collection (MMA-DDC) - was developed to address this challenge. In this approach, multiple hydrologic models are developed and treated as competing hypotheses. Potential new data are then evaluated on their ability to discriminate between competing hypotheses. MMA-DDC is well-suited for use in recursive mode, in which new observations are continuously used in the optimization of subsequent observations. This new approach was applied to a synthetic solute transport experiment, in which ranges of parameter values constitute the multiple hydrologic models, and model predictions are calculated using likelihood-weighted model averaging. MMA-DDC was used to determine the optimal location, timing, number, and type of new observations. From comparison with an exhaustive search of all possible observation sequences, we find that MMA-DDC consistently selects observations which lead to the highest reduction in model prediction uncertainty. We conclude that using MMA-DDC to evaluate potential observations may significantly improve the performance of hydrologic models while reducing the cost associated with collecting new data.

A modular approach to addressing model design, scale, and parameter estimation issues in distributed hydrological modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leavesley, G.H.; Markstrom, S.L.; Restrepo, Pedro J.; Viger, R.J.

2002-01-01

A modular approach to model design and construction provides a flexible framework in which to focus the multidisciplinary research and operational efforts needed to facilitate the development, selection, and application of the most robust distributed modelling methods. A variety of modular approaches have been developed, but with little consideration for compatibility among systems and concepts. Several systems are proprietary, limiting any user interaction. The US Geological Survey modular modelling system (MMS) is a modular modelling framework that uses an open source software approach to enable all members of the scientific community to address collaboratively the many complex issues associated with the design, development, and application of distributed hydrological and environmental models. Implementation of a common modular concept is not a trivial task. However, it brings the resources of a larger community to bear on the problems of distributed modelling, provides a framework in which to compare alternative modelling approaches objectively, and provides a means of sharing the latest modelling advances. The concepts and components of the MMS are described and an example application of the MMS, in a decision-support system context, is presented to demonstrate current system capabilities. Copyright ?? 2002 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

A simple approach to quantitative analysis using three-dimensional spectra based on selected Zernike moments.

PubMed

Zhai, Hong Lin; Zhai, Yue Yuan; Li, Pei Zhen; Tian, Yue Li

2013-01-21

A very simple approach to quantitative analysis is proposed based on the technology of digital image processing using three-dimensional (3D) spectra obtained by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with a diode array detector (HPLC-DAD). As the region-based shape features of a grayscale image, Zernike moments with inherently invariance property were employed to establish the linear quantitative models. This approach was applied to the quantitative analysis of three compounds in mixed samples using 3D HPLC-DAD spectra, and three linear models were obtained, respectively. The correlation coefficients (R(2)) for training and test sets were more than 0.999, and the statistical parameters and strict validation supported the reliability of established models. The analytical results suggest that the Zernike moment selected by stepwise regression can be used in the quantitative analysis of target compounds. Our study provides a new idea for quantitative analysis using 3D spectra, which can be extended to the analysis of other 3D spectra obtained by different methods or instruments.

Orbital-selective Mott phase in multiorbital models for iron pnictides and chalcogenides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Rong; Si, Qimiao

2017-09-01

There is increasing recognition that the multiorbital nature of the 3 d electrons is important to the proper description of the electronic states in the normal state of the iron-based superconductors. Earlier studies of the pertinent multiorbital Hubbard models identified an orbital-selective Mott phase, which anchors the orbital-selective behavior seen in the overall phase diagram. An important characteristics of the models is that the orbitals are kinetically coupled, i.e., hybridized, to each other, which makes the orbital-selective Mott phase especially nontrivial. A U (1 ) slave-spin method was used to analyze the model with nonzero orbital-level splittings. Here we develop a Landau free-energy functional to shed further light on this issue. We put the microscopic analysis from the U (1 ) slave-spin approach in this perspective, and show that the intersite spin correlations are crucial to the renormalization of the bare hybridization amplitude towards zero and the concomitant realization of the orbital-selective Mott transition. Based on this insight, we discuss additional ways to study the orbital-selective Mott physics from a dynamical competition between the interorbital hybridization and collective spin correlations. Our results demonstrate the robustness of the orbital-selective Mott phase in the multiorbital models appropriate for the iron-based superconductors.

The Substitution Augmentation Modification Redefinition (SAMR) Model: A Critical Review and Suggestions for Its Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamilton, Erica R.; Rosenberg, Joshua M.; Akcaoglu, Mete

2016-01-01

The Substitution, Augmentation, Modification, and Redefinition (SAMR) model is a four-level, taxonomy-based approach for selecting, using, and evaluating technology in K-12 settings (Puentedura 2006). Despite its increasing popularity among practitioners, the SAMR model is not currently represented in the extant literature. To focus the ongoing…

A New Integrated Threshold Selection Methodology for Spatial Forecast Verification of Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kholodovsky, V.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather and climate events such as heavy precipitation, heat waves and strong winds can cause extensive damage to the society in terms of human lives and financial losses. As climate changes, it is important to understand how extreme weather events may change as a result. Climate and statistical models are often independently used to model those phenomena. To better assess performance of the climate models, a variety of spatial forecast verification methods have been developed. However, spatial verification metrics that are widely used in comparing mean states, in most cases, do not have an adequate theoretical justification to benchmark extreme weather events. We proposed a new integrated threshold selection methodology for spatial forecast verification of extreme events that couples existing pattern recognition indices with high threshold choices. This integrated approach has three main steps: 1) dimension reduction; 2) geometric domain mapping; and 3) thresholds clustering. We apply this approach to an observed precipitation dataset over CONUS. The results are evaluated by displaying threshold distribution seasonally, monthly and annually. The method offers user the flexibility of selecting a high threshold that is linked to desired geometrical properties. The proposed high threshold methodology could either complement existing spatial verification methods, where threshold selection is arbitrary, or be directly applicable in extreme value theory.

Optimal experimental designs for fMRI when the model matrix is uncertain.

PubMed

Kao, Ming-Hung; Zhou, Lin

2017-07-15

This study concerns optimal designs for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiments when the model matrix of the statistical model depends on both the selected stimulus sequence (fMRI design), and the subject's uncertain feedback (e.g. answer) to each mental stimulus (e.g. question) presented to her/him. While practically important, this design issue is challenging. This mainly is because that the information matrix cannot be fully determined at the design stage, making it difficult to evaluate the quality of the selected designs. To tackle this challenging issue, we propose an easy-to-use optimality criterion for evaluating the quality of designs, and an efficient approach for obtaining designs optimizing this criterion. Compared with a previously proposed method, our approach requires a much less computing time to achieve designs with high statistical efficiencies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Space-time latent component modeling of geo-referenced health data.

PubMed

Lawson, Andrew B; Song, Hae-Ryoung; Cai, Bo; Hossain, Md Monir; Huang, Kun

2010-08-30

Latent structure models have been proposed in many applications. For space-time health data it is often important to be able to find the underlying trends in time, which are supported by subsets of small areas. Latent structure modeling is one such approach to this analysis. This paper presents a mixture-based approach that can be applied to component selection. The analysis of a Georgia ambulatory asthma county-level data set is presented and a simulation-based evaluation is made. Copyright (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Genomic signature of natural and anthropogenic stress in wild populations of the waterflea Daphnia magna: validation in space, time and experimental evolution.

PubMed

Orsini, Luisa; Spanier, Katina I; DE Meester, Luc

2012-05-01

Natural populations are confronted with multiple selection pressures resulting in a mosaic of environmental stressors at the landscape level. Identifying the genetic underpinning of adaptation to these complex selection environments and assigning causes of natural selection within multidimensional selection regimes in the wild is challenging. The water flea Daphnia is a renowned ecological model system with its well-documented ecology, the possibility to analyse subfossil dormant egg banks and the short generation time allowing an experimental evolution approach. Capitalizing on the strengths of this model system, we here link candidate genome regions to three selection pressures, known to induce micro-evolutionary responses in Daphnia magna: fish predation, parasitism and land use. Using a genome scan approach in space, time and experimental evolution trials, we provide solid evidence of selection at the genome level under well-characterized environmental gradients in the wild and identify candidate genes linked to the three environmental stressors. Our study reveals differential selection at the genome level in Daphnia populations and provides evidence for repeatable patterns of local adaptation in a geographic mosaic of environmental stressors fuelled by standing genetic variation. Our results imply high evolutionary potential of local populations, which is relevant to understand the dynamics of trait changes in natural populations and their impact on community and ecosystem responses through eco-evolutionary feedbacks. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Influence of mesh structure on 2D full shallow water equations and SCS Curve Number simulation of rainfall/runoff events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caviedes-Voullième, Daniel; García-Navarro, Pilar; Murillo, Javier

2012-07-01

SummaryHydrological simulation of rain-runoff processes is often performed with lumped models which rely on calibration to generate storm hydrographs and study catchment response to rain. In this paper, a distributed, physically-based numerical model is used for runoff simulation in a mountain catchment. This approach offers two advantages. The first is that by using shallow-water equations for runoff flow, there is less freedom to calibrate routing parameters (as compared to, for example, synthetic hydrograph methods). The second, is that spatial distributions of water depth and velocity can be obtained. Furthermore, interactions among the various hydrological processes can be modeled in a physically-based approach which may depend on transient and spatially distributed factors. On the other hand, the undertaken numerical approach relies on accurate terrain representation and mesh selection, which also affects significantly the computational cost of the simulations. Hence, we investigate the response of a gauged catchment with this distributed approach. The methodology consists of analyzing the effects that the mesh has on the simulations by using a range of meshes. Next, friction is applied to the model and the response to variations and interaction with the mesh is studied. Finally, a first approach with the well-known SCS Curve Number method is studied to evaluate its behavior when coupled with a shallow-water model for runoff flow. The results show that mesh selection is of great importance, since it may affect the results in a magnitude as large as physical factors, such as friction. Furthermore, results proved to be less sensitive to roughness spatial distribution than to mesh properties. Finally, the results indicate that SCS-CN may not be suitable for simulating hydrological processes together with a shallow-water model.

Prediction of Protein Structure by Template-Based Modeling Combined with the UNRES Force Field.

PubMed

Krupa, Paweł; Mozolewska, Magdalena A; Joo, Keehyoung; Lee, Jooyoung; Czaplewski, Cezary; Liwo, Adam

2015-06-22

A new approach to the prediction of protein structures that uses distance and backbone virtual-bond dihedral angle restraints derived from template-based models and simulations with the united residue (UNRES) force field is proposed. The approach combines the accuracy and reliability of template-based methods for the segments of the target sequence with high similarity to those having known structures with the ability of UNRES to pack the domains correctly. Multiplexed replica-exchange molecular dynamics with restraints derived from template-based models of a given target, in which each restraint is weighted according to the accuracy of the prediction of the corresponding section of the molecule, is used to search the conformational space, and the weighted histogram analysis method and cluster analysis are applied to determine the families of the most probable conformations, from which candidate predictions are selected. To test the capability of the method to recover template-based models from restraints, five single-domain proteins with structures that have been well-predicted by template-based methods were used; it was found that the resulting structures were of the same quality as the best of the original models. To assess whether the new approach can improve template-based predictions with incorrectly predicted domain packing, four such targets were selected from the CASP10 targets; for three of them the new approach resulted in significantly better predictions compared with the original template-based models. The new approach can be used to predict the structures of proteins for which good templates can be found for sections of the sequence or an overall good template can be found for the entire sequence but the prediction quality is remarkably weaker in putative domain-linker regions.

Multi-Modal Active Perception for Autonomously Selecting Landing Sites on Icy Moons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arora, A.; Furlong, P. M.; Wong, U.; Fong, T.; Sukkarieh, S.

2017-01-01

Selecting suitable landing sites is fundamental to achieving many mission objectives in planetary robotic lander missions. However, due to sensing limitations, landing sites which are both safe and scientifically valuable often cannot be determined reliably from orbit, particularly, in icy moon missions where orbital sensing data is noisy and incomplete. This paper presents an active perception approach to Entry Descent and Landing (EDL) which enables the lander to autonomously plan informative descent trajectories, acquire high quality sensing data during descent and exploit this additional information to select higher utility landing sites. Our approach consists of two components: probabilistic modeling of landing site features and approximate trajectory planning using a sampling based planner. The proposed framework allows the lander to plan long horizons paths and remain robust to noisy data. Results in simulated environments show large performance improvements over alternative approaches and show promise that our approach has strong potential to improve science return of not only icy moon missions but EDL systems in general.

Using Evolutionary Theory to Guide Mental Health Research.

PubMed

Durisko, Zachary; Mulsant, Benoit H; McKenzie, Kwame; Andrews, Paul W

2016-03-01

Evolutionary approaches to medicine can shed light on the origins and etiology of disease. Such an approach may be especially useful in psychiatry, which frequently addresses conditions with heterogeneous presentation and unknown causes. We review several previous applications of evolutionary theory that highlight the ways in which psychiatric conditions may persist despite and because of natural selection. One lesson from the evolutionary approach is that some conditions currently classified as disorders (because they cause distress and impairment) may actually be caused by functioning adaptations operating "normally" (as designed by natural selection). Such conditions suggest an alternative illness model that may generate alternative intervention strategies. Thus, the evolutionary approach suggests that psychiatry should sometimes think differently about distress and impairment. The complexity of the human brain, including normal functioning and potential for dysfunctions, has developed over evolutionary time and has been shaped by natural selection. Understanding the evolutionary origins of psychiatric conditions is therefore a crucial component to a complete understanding of etiology. © The Author(s) 2016.

Using Evolutionary Theory to Guide Mental Health Research

PubMed Central

Mulsant, Benoit H.; McKenzie, Kwame; Andrews, Paul W.

2016-01-01

Evolutionary approaches to medicine can shed light on the origins and etiology of disease. Such an approach may be especially useful in psychiatry, which frequently addresses conditions with heterogeneous presentation and unknown causes. We review several previous applications of evolutionary theory that highlight the ways in which psychiatric conditions may persist despite and because of natural selection. One lesson from the evolutionary approach is that some conditions currently classified as disorders (because they cause distress and impairment) may actually be caused by functioning adaptations operating “normally” (as designed by natural selection). Such conditions suggest an alternative illness model that may generate alternative intervention strategies. Thus, the evolutionary approach suggests that psychiatry should sometimes think differently about distress and impairment. The complexity of the human brain, including normal functioning and potential for dysfunctions, has developed over evolutionary time and has been shaped by natural selection. Understanding the evolutionary origins of psychiatric conditions is therefore a crucial component to a complete understanding of etiology. PMID:27254091

In vivo and in vitro testing for selenium and selenium compounds bioavailability assessment in foodstuff.

PubMed

Moreda-Piñeiro, Jorge; Moreda-Piñeiro, Antonio; Bermejo-Barrera, Pilar

2017-03-04

The assessment of selenium and selenium species bioavailability in foodstuff is of special concern on the context of human nutrition. In vivo (human and animal), and in vitro tests are important approaches for estimating the bioavailability of toxic and essential compounds to humans. An overview on in vivo and in vitro bioavailability assays for releasing selenium and selenium species in foodstuffs is summarized. Se and Se species content in a foodstuff critically influence Se bioavailability and bioactivity to humans and animals. Se bioavailability is affected by foodstuff-matrix major composition and minor components. Foodstuffs processing and/or treatments could enhancement or decrease Se bioavailability. Experimental conditions such as the selection of healthy status of examined people (in in vivo humans approaches), the selection of animal model (in vivo animals approaches), or the selection of GI conditions (in in vitro tests) could determines the results. Thus, international standardized protocol for in vivo and in vitro approaches assessment is mandatory.

A Unified Conformational Selection and Induced Fit Approach to Protein-Peptide Docking

PubMed Central

Trellet, Mikael; Melquiond, Adrien S. J.; Bonvin, Alexandre M. J. J.

2013-01-01

Protein-peptide interactions are vital for the cell. They mediate, inhibit or serve as structural components in nearly 40% of all macromolecular interactions, and are often associated with diseases, making them interesting leads for protein drug design. In recent years, large-scale technologies have enabled exhaustive studies on the peptide recognition preferences for a number of peptide-binding domain families. Yet, the paucity of data regarding their molecular binding mechanisms together with their inherent flexibility makes the structural prediction of protein-peptide interactions very challenging. This leaves flexible docking as one of the few amenable computational techniques to model these complexes. We present here an ensemble, flexible protein-peptide docking protocol that combines conformational selection and induced fit mechanisms. Starting from an ensemble of three peptide conformations (extended, a-helix, polyproline-II), flexible docking with HADDOCK generates 79.4% of high quality models for bound/unbound and 69.4% for unbound/unbound docking when tested against the largest protein-peptide complexes benchmark dataset available to date. Conformational selection at the rigid-body docking stage successfully recovers the most relevant conformation for a given protein-peptide complex and the subsequent flexible refinement further improves the interface by up to 4.5 Å interface RMSD. Cluster-based scoring of the models results in a selection of near-native solutions in the top three for ∼75% of the successfully predicted cases. This unified conformational selection and induced fit approach to protein-peptide docking should open the route to the modeling of challenging systems such as disorder-order transitions taking place upon binding, significantly expanding the applicability limit of biomolecular interaction modeling by docking. PMID:23516555

A unified conformational selection and induced fit approach to protein-peptide docking.

PubMed

Trellet, Mikael; Melquiond, Adrien S J; Bonvin, Alexandre M J J

2013-01-01

Protein-peptide interactions are vital for the cell. They mediate, inhibit or serve as structural components in nearly 40% of all macromolecular interactions, and are often associated with diseases, making them interesting leads for protein drug design. In recent years, large-scale technologies have enabled exhaustive studies on the peptide recognition preferences for a number of peptide-binding domain families. Yet, the paucity of data regarding their molecular binding mechanisms together with their inherent flexibility makes the structural prediction of protein-peptide interactions very challenging. This leaves flexible docking as one of the few amenable computational techniques to model these complexes. We present here an ensemble, flexible protein-peptide docking protocol that combines conformational selection and induced fit mechanisms. Starting from an ensemble of three peptide conformations (extended, a-helix, polyproline-II), flexible docking with HADDOCK generates 79.4% of high quality models for bound/unbound and 69.4% for unbound/unbound docking when tested against the largest protein-peptide complexes benchmark dataset available to date. Conformational selection at the rigid-body docking stage successfully recovers the most relevant conformation for a given protein-peptide complex and the subsequent flexible refinement further improves the interface by up to 4.5 Å interface RMSD. Cluster-based scoring of the models results in a selection of near-native solutions in the top three for ∼75% of the successfully predicted cases. This unified conformational selection and induced fit approach to protein-peptide docking should open the route to the modeling of challenging systems such as disorder-order transitions taking place upon binding, significantly expanding the applicability limit of biomolecular interaction modeling by docking.

Profile-Based LC-MS Data Alignment—A Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Tsai, Tsung-Heng; Tadesse, Mahlet G.; Wang, Yue; Ressom, Habtom W.

2014-01-01

A Bayesian alignment model (BAM) is proposed for alignment of liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) data. BAM belongs to the category of profile-based approaches, which are composed of two major components: a prototype function and a set of mapping functions. Appropriate estimation of these functions is crucial for good alignment results. BAM uses Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to draw inference on the model parameters and improves on existing MCMC-based alignment methods through 1) the implementation of an efficient MCMC sampler and 2) an adaptive selection of knots. A block Metropolis-Hastings algorithm that mitigates the problem of the MCMC sampler getting stuck at local modes of the posterior distribution is used for the update of the mapping function coefficients. In addition, a stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) methodology is used to determine the number and positions of knots. We applied BAM to a simulated data set, an LC-MS proteomic data set, and two LC-MS metabolomic data sets, and compared its performance with the Bayesian hierarchical curve registration (BHCR) model, the dynamic time-warping (DTW) model, and the continuous profile model (CPM). The advantage of applying appropriate profile-based retention time correction prior to performing a feature-based approach is also demonstrated through the metabolomic data sets. PMID:23929872

Variationally optimal selection of slow coordinates and reaction coordinates in macromolecular systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noe, Frank

To efficiently simulate and generate understanding from simulations of complex macromolecular systems, the concept of slow collective coordinates or reaction coordinates is of fundamental importance. Here we will introduce variational approaches to approximate the slow coordinates and the reaction coordinates between selected end-states given MD simulations of the macromolecular system and a (possibly large) basis set of candidate coordinates. We will then discuss how to select physically intuitive order paremeters that are good surrogates of this variationally optimal result. These result can be used in order to construct Markov state models or other models of the stationary and kinetics properties, in order to parametrize low-dimensional / coarse-grained model of the dynamics. Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, European Research Council.

A framework for multi-criteria assessment of model enhancements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francke, Till; Foerster, Saskia; Brosinsky, Arlena; Delgado, José; Güntner, Andreas; López-Tarazón, José A.; Bronstert, Axel

2016-04-01

Modellers are often faced with unsatisfactory model performance for a specific setup of a hydrological model. In these cases, the modeller may try to improve the setup by addressing selected causes for the model errors (i.e. data errors, structural errors). This leads to adding certain "model enhancements" (MEs), e.g. climate data based on more monitoring stations, improved calibration data, modifications in process formulations. However, deciding on which MEs to implement remains a matter of expert knowledge, guided by some sensitivity analysis at best. When multiple MEs have been implemented, a resulting improvement in model performance is not easily attributed, especially when considering different aspects of this improvement (e.g. better performance dynamics vs. reduced bias). In this study we present an approach for comparing the effect of multiple MEs in the face of multiple improvement aspects. A stepwise selection approach and structured plots help in addressing the multidimensionality of the problem. The approach is applied to a case study, which employs the meso-scale hydrosedimentological model WASA-SED for a sub-humid catchment. The results suggest that the effect of the MEs is quite diverse, with some MEs (e.g. augmented rainfall data) cause improvements for almost all aspects, while the effect of other MEs is restricted to few aspects or even deteriorate some. These specific results may not be generalizable. However, we suggest that based on studies like this, identifying the most promising MEs to implement may be facilitated.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Personick, Michelle L.; Montemore, Matthew M.; Kaxiras, Efthimios

Decreasing energy consumption in the production of platform chemicals is necessary to improve the sustainability of the chemical industry, which is the largest consumer of delivered energy. The majority of industrial chemical transformations rely on catalysts, and therefore designing new materials that catalyse the production of important chemicals via more selective and energy-efficient processes is a promising pathway to reducing energy use by the chemical industry. Efficiently designing new catalysts benefits from an integrated approach involving fundamental experimental studies and theoretical modelling in addition to evaluation of materials under working catalytic conditions. In this paper, we outline this approach inmore » the context of a particular catalyst—nanoporous gold (npAu)—which is an unsupported, dilute AgAu alloy catalyst that is highly active for the selective oxidative transformation of alcohols. Fundamental surface science studies on Au single crystals and AgAu thin-film alloys in combination with theoretical modelling were used to identify the principles which define the reactivity of npAu and subsequently enabled prediction of new reactive pathways on this material. Specifically, weak van der Waals interactions are key to the selectivity of Au materials, including npAu. Finally, we also briefly describe other systems in which this integrated approach was applied.« less

A three-step approach for the derivation and validation of high-performing predictive models using an operational dataset: congestive heart failure readmission case study.

PubMed

AbdelRahman, Samir E; Zhang, Mingyuan; Bray, Bruce E; Kawamoto, Kensaku

2014-05-27

The aim of this study was to propose an analytical approach to develop high-performing predictive models for congestive heart failure (CHF) readmission using an operational dataset with incomplete records and changing data over time. Our analytical approach involves three steps: pre-processing, systematic model development, and risk factor analysis. For pre-processing, variables that were absent in >50% of records were removed. Moreover, the dataset was divided into a validation dataset and derivation datasets which were separated into three temporal subsets based on changes to the data over time. For systematic model development, using the different temporal datasets and the remaining explanatory variables, the models were developed by combining the use of various (i) statistical analyses to explore the relationships between the validation and the derivation datasets; (ii) adjustment methods for handling missing values; (iii) classifiers; (iv) feature selection methods; and (iv) discretization methods. We then selected the best derivation dataset and the models with the highest predictive performance. For risk factor analysis, factors in the highest-performing predictive models were analyzed and ranked using (i) statistical analyses of the best derivation dataset, (ii) feature rankers, and (iii) a newly developed algorithm to categorize risk factors as being strong, regular, or weak. The analysis dataset consisted of 2,787 CHF hospitalizations at University of Utah Health Care from January 2003 to June 2013. In this study, we used the complete-case analysis and mean-based imputation adjustment methods; the wrapper subset feature selection method; and four ranking strategies based on information gain, gain ratio, symmetrical uncertainty, and wrapper subset feature evaluators. The best-performing models resulted from the use of a complete-case analysis derivation dataset combined with the Class-Attribute Contingency Coefficient discretization method and a voting classifier which averaged the results of multi-nominal logistic regression and voting feature intervals classifiers. Of 42 final model risk factors, discharge disposition, discretized age, and indicators of anemia were the most significant. This model achieved a c-statistic of 86.8%. The proposed three-step analytical approach enhanced predictive model performance for CHF readmissions. It could potentially be leveraged to improve predictive model performance in other areas of clinical medicine.

SELECTING DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION MODELS FOR PREDICTING THE EXPECTED RICHNESS OF AQUATIC MACROINVERTEBRATES

EPA Science Inventory

1. The predictive modelling approach to bioassessment estimates the macroinvertebrate assemblage expected at a stream site if it were in a minimally disturbed reference condition. The difference between expected and observed assemblages then measures the departure of the site fro...

Demographic Modelling in Weed Biocontrol

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Demographic matrix modeling of plant populations can be a powerful tool to identify key life stage transitions that contribute the most to population growth of an invasive plant and hence should be targeted for disruption. Therefore, this approach has the potential to guide the pre-release selection...

Analyzing Responses of Chemical Sensor Arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Hanying

2007-01-01

NASA is developing a third-generation electronic nose (ENose) capable of continuous monitoring of the International Space Station s cabin atmosphere for specific, harmful airborne contaminants. Previous generations of the ENose have been described in prior NASA Tech Briefs issues. Sensor selection is critical in both (prefabrication) sensor material selection and (post-fabrication) data analysis of the ENose, which detects several analytes that are difficult to detect, or that are at very low concentration ranges. Existing sensor selection approaches usually include limited statistical measures, where selectivity is more important but reliability and sensitivity are not of concern. When reliability and sensitivity can be major limiting factors in detecting target compounds reliably, the existing approach is not able to provide meaningful selection that will actually improve data analysis results. The approach and software reported here consider more statistical measures (factors) than existing approaches for a similar purpose. The result is a more balanced and robust sensor selection from a less than ideal sensor array. The software offers quick, flexible, optimal sensor selection and weighting for a variety of purposes without a time-consuming, iterative search by performing sensor calibrations to a known linear or nonlinear model, evaluating the individual sensor s statistics, scoring the individual sensor s overall performance, finding the best sensor array size to maximize class separation, finding optimal weights for the remaining sensor array, estimating limits of detection for the target compounds, evaluating fingerprint distance between group pairs, and finding the best event-detecting sensors.

Developing Novel Therapeutic Approaches in Small Cell Lung Carcinoma Using Genetically Engineered Mouse Models and Human Circulating Tumor Cells

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

developed expertise in live animal imaging to enable monitoring to tumors over time in these models. We have initiated treatment studies with chemotherapy...requested on 9/22/14 and reported in our first annual report. Significant changes in use or care of human subjects, vertebrate animals ...biohazards and/or select agents We have no additional changes to make in use of vertebrate animals , biohazards and/or select reagents beyond what was

Optimizing selective cutting strategies for maximum carbon stocks and yield of Moso bamboo forest using BIOME-BGC model.

PubMed

Mao, Fangjie; Zhou, Guomo; Li, Pingheng; Du, Huaqiang; Xu, Xiaojun; Shi, Yongjun; Mo, Lufeng; Zhou, Yufeng; Tu, Guoqing

2017-04-15

The selective cutting method currently used in Moso bamboo forests has resulted in a reduction of stand productivity and carbon sequestration capacity. Given the time and labor expense involved in addressing this problem manually, simulation using an ecosystem model is the most suitable approach. The BIOME-BGC model was improved to suit managed Moso bamboo forests, which was adapted to include age structure, specific ecological processes and management measures of Moso bamboo forest. A field selective cutting experiment was done in nine plots with three cutting intensities (high-intensity, moderate-intensity and low-intensity) during 2010-2013, and biomass of these plots was measured for model validation. Then four selective cutting scenarios were simulated by the improved BIOME-BGC model to optimize the selective cutting timings, intervals, retained ages and intensities. The improved model matched the observed aboveground carbon density and yield of different plots, with a range of relative error from 9.83% to 15.74%. The results of different selective cutting scenarios suggested that the optimal selective cutting measure should be cutting 30% culms of age 6, 80% culms of age 7, and all culms thereafter (above age 8) in winter every other year. The vegetation carbon density and harvested carbon density of this selective cutting method can increase by 74.63% and 21.5%, respectively, compared with the current selective cutting measure. The optimized selective cutting measure developed in this study can significantly promote carbon density, yield, and carbon sink capacity in Moso bamboo forests. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient least angle regression for identification of linear-in-the-parameters models

PubMed Central

Beach, Thomas H.; Rezgui, Yacine

2017-01-01

Least angle regression, as a promising model selection method, differentiates itself from conventional stepwise and stagewise methods, in that it is neither too greedy nor too slow. It is closely related to L1 norm optimization, which has the advantage of low prediction variance through sacrificing part of model bias property in order to enhance model generalization capability. In this paper, we propose an efficient least angle regression algorithm for model selection for a large class of linear-in-the-parameters models with the purpose of accelerating the model selection process. The entire algorithm works completely in a recursive manner, where the correlations between model terms and residuals, the evolving directions and other pertinent variables are derived explicitly and updated successively at every subset selection step. The model coefficients are only computed when the algorithm finishes. The direct involvement of matrix inversions is thereby relieved. A detailed computational complexity analysis indicates that the proposed algorithm possesses significant computational efficiency, compared with the original approach where the well-known efficient Cholesky decomposition is involved in solving least angle regression. Three artificial and real-world examples are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency and numerical stability of the proposed algorithm. PMID:28293140

A model for field toxicity tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaiser, Mark S.; Finger, Susan E.

1996-01-01

Toxicity tests conducted under field conditions present an interesting challenge for statistical modelling. In contrast to laboratory tests, the concentrations of potential toxicants are not held constant over the test. In addition, the number and identity of toxicants that belong in a model as explanatory factors are not known and must be determined through a model selection process. We present one model to deal with these needs. This model takes the record of mortalities to form a multinomial distribution in which parameters are modelled as products of conditional daily survival probabilities. These conditional probabilities are in turn modelled as logistic functions of the explanatory factors. The model incorporates lagged values of the explanatory factors to deal with changes in the pattern of mortalities over time. The issue of model selection and assessment is approached through the use of generalized information criteria and power divergence goodness-of-fit tests. These model selection criteria are applied in a cross-validation scheme designed to assess the ability of a model to both fit data used in estimation and predict data deleted from the estimation data set. The example presented demonstrates the need for inclusion of lagged values of the explanatory factors and suggests that penalized likelihood criteria may not provide adequate protection against overparameterized models in model selection.

Development of mathematical models of environmental physiology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolwijk, J. A. J.; Mitchell, J. W.; Nadel, E. R.

1971-01-01

Selected articles concerned with mathematical or simulation models of human thermoregulation are presented. The articles presented include: (1) development and use of simulation models in medicine, (2) model of cardio-vascular adjustments during exercise, (3) effective temperature scale based on simple model of human physiological regulatory response, (4) behavioral approach to thermoregulatory set point during exercise, and (5) importance of skin temperature in sweat regulation.

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: Setting the scene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guisan, Antoine; Edwards, T.C.; Hastie, T.

2002-01-01

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001. We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A Note on the Usefulness of the Behavioural Rasch Selection Model for Causal Inference in the Social Sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabbitt, Matthew P.

2016-11-01

Social scientists are often interested in examining causal relationships where the outcome of interest is represented by an intangible concept, such as an individual's well-being or ability. Estimating causal relationships in this scenario is particularly challenging because the social scientist must rely on measurement models to measure individual's properties or attributes and then address issues related to survey data, such as omitted variables. In this paper, the usefulness of the recently proposed behavioural Rasch selection model is explored using a series of Monte Carlo experiments. The behavioural Rasch selection model is particularly useful for these types of applications because it is capable of estimating the causal effect of a binary treatment effect on an outcome that is represented by an intangible concept using cross-sectional data. Other methodology typically relies of summary measures from measurement models that require additional assumptions, some of which make these approaches less efficient. Recommendations for application of the behavioural Rasch selection model are made based on results from the Monte Carlo experiments.

Multi-model ensemble hydrological simulation using a BP Neural Network for the upper Yalongjiang River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhanjie; Yu, Jingshan; Xu, Xinyi; Sun, Wenchao; Pang, Bo; Yue, Jiajia

2018-06-01

Hydrological models are important and effective tools for detecting complex hydrological processes. Different models have different strengths when capturing the various aspects of hydrological processes. Relying on a single model usually leads to simulation uncertainties. Ensemble approaches, based on multi-model hydrological simulations, can improve application performance over single models. In this study, the upper Yalongjiang River Basin was selected for a case study. Three commonly used hydrological models (SWAT, VIC, and BTOPMC) were selected and used for independent simulations with the same input and initial values. Then, the BP neural network method was employed to combine the results from the three models. The results show that the accuracy of BP ensemble simulation is better than that of the single models.

'Chain pooling' model selection as developed for the statistical analysis of a rotor burst protection experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holms, A. G.

1977-01-01

A statistical decision procedure called chain pooling had been developed for model selection in fitting the results of a two-level fixed-effects full or fractional factorial experiment not having replication. The basic strategy included the use of one nominal level of significance for a preliminary test and a second nominal level of significance for the final test. The subject has been reexamined from the point of view of using as many as three successive statistical model deletion procedures in fitting the results of a single experiment. The investigation consisted of random number studies intended to simulate the results of a proposed aircraft turbine-engine rotor-burst-protection experiment. As a conservative approach, population model coefficients were chosen to represent a saturated 2 to the 4th power experiment with a distribution of parameter values unfavorable to the decision procedures. Three model selection strategies were developed.

Application of an Optimal Tuner Selection Approach for On-Board Self-Tuning Engine Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Armstrong, Jeffrey B.; Garg, Sanjay

2012-01-01

An enhanced design methodology for minimizing the error in on-line Kalman filter-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications is presented in this paper. It specific-ally addresses the under-determined estimation problem, in which there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. This work builds upon an existing technique for systematically selecting a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. While the existing technique was optimized for open-loop engine operation at a fixed design point, in this paper an alternative formulation is presented that enables the technique to be optimized for an engine operating under closed-loop control throughout the flight envelope. The theoretical Kalman filter mean squared estimation error at a steady-state closed-loop operating point is derived, and the tuner selection approach applied to minimize this error is discussed. A technique for constructing a globally optimal tuning parameter vector, which enables full-envelope application of the technology, is also presented, along with design steps for adjusting the dynamic response of the Kalman filter state estimates. Results from the application of the technique to linear and nonlinear aircraft engine simulations are presented and compared to the conventional approach of tuner selection. The new methodology is shown to yield a significant improvement in on-line Kalman filter estimation accuracy.

Homology modeling and virtual screening of inhibitors against TEM- and SHV-type-resistant mutants: A multilayer filtering approach.

PubMed

Baig, Mohammad H; Balaramnavar, Vishal M; Wadhwa, Gulshan; Khan, Asad U

2015-01-01

TEM and SHV are class-A-type β-lactamases commonly found in Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae. Previous studies reported S130G and K234R mutations in SHVs to be 41- and 10-fold more resistant toward clavulanic acid than SHV-1, respectively, whereas TEM S130G and R244S also showed the same level of resistance. These selected mutants confer higher level of resistance against clavulanic acid. They also show little susceptibility against other commercially available β-lactamase inhibitors. In this study, we have used docking-based virtual screening approach in order to screen potential inhibitors against some of the major resistant mutants of SHV and TEM types β-lactamase. Two different inhibitor-resistant mutants from SHV and TEM were selected. Moreover, we have retained the active site water molecules within each enzyme. Active site water molecules were placed within modeled structure of the mutant whose structure was unavailable with protein databank. The novelty of this work lies in the use of multilayer virtual screening approach for the prediction of best and accurate results. We are reporting five inhibitors on the basis of their efficacy against all the selected resistant mutants. These inhibitors were selected on the basis of their binding efficacies and pharmacophore features. © 2015 International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Model of Lesson Study Approach during Micro Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iksan, Zanaton H.; Zakaria, Effandi; Daud, Md. Yusoff

2014-01-01

Lesson study is a study of teaching to provide learning opportunities for teachers to enhance teachers' professional development. Advantages of this approach have been recommended by the Ministry of Education and implemented in stages in selected schools. Thus, students at the pre-service level should be given the exposure about lesson study.…

A Path to an Instructional Science: Data-Generated vs. Postulated Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gropper, George L.

2016-01-01

Psychological testing can serve as a prototype on which to base a data-generated approach to instructional design. In "testing batteries" tests are used to predict achievement. In the proposed approach batteries of prescriptions would be used to produce achievement. In creating "test batteries" tests are selected for their…

Efficient Personalized Mispronunciation Detection of Taiwanese-Accented English Speech Based on Unsupervised Model Adaptation and Dynamic Sentence Selection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Chung-Hsien; Su, Hung-Yu; Liu, Chao-Hong

2013-01-01

This study presents an efficient approach to personalized mispronunciation detection of Taiwanese-accented English. The main goal of this study was to detect frequently occurring mispronunciation patterns of Taiwanese-accented English instead of scoring English pronunciations directly. The proposed approach quickly identifies personalized…

The Effects of Restructuring Biology Teaching by a Constructivist Teaching Approach: An Action Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Wan-Ju

This study reports on the improvement of a teacher researcher's teaching practice by adopting a constructivist teaching approach. Four biology units on the nervous system, human circulatory system, evolution, and vertebrate classification were selected to illustrate a model of biology teaching. Data were drawn from student responses to…

The robust corrective action priority-an improved approach for selecting competing corrective actions in FMEA based on principle of robust design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutrisno, Agung; Gunawan, Indra; Vanany, Iwan

2017-11-01

In spite of being integral part in risk - based quality improvement effort, studies improving quality of selection of corrective action priority using FMEA technique are still limited in literature. If any, none is considering robustness and risk in selecting competing improvement initiatives. This study proposed a theoretical model to select risk - based competing corrective action by considering robustness and risk of competing corrective actions. We incorporated the principle of robust design in counting the preference score among corrective action candidates. Along with considering cost and benefit of competing corrective actions, we also incorporate the risk and robustness of corrective actions. An example is provided to represent the applicability of the proposed model.

Validation of a simple distributed sediment delivery approach in selected sub-basins of the River Inn catchment area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, Lucas; Kittlaus, Steffen; Scherer, Ulrike

2015-04-01

For large areas without highly detailed data the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is widely used to quantify soil loss. The problem though is usually the quantification of actual sediment influx into the rivers. As the USLE provides long-term mean soil loss rates, it is often combined with spatially lumped models to estimate the sediment delivery ratio (SDR). But it gets difficult with spatially lumped approaches in large catchment areas where the geographical properties have a wide variance. In this study we developed a simple but spatially distributed approach to quantify the sediment delivery ratio by considering the characteristics of the flow paths in the catchments. The sediment delivery ratio was determined using an empirical approach considering the slope, morphology and land use properties along the flow path as an estimation of travel time of the eroded particles. The model was tested against suspended solids measurements in selected sub-basins of the River Inn catchment area in Germany and Austria, ranging from the high alpine south to the Molasse basin in the northern part.

Integrated brokering framework for multi-disciplinary research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craglia, M.; Vaccari, L.; Santoro, M.; Nativi, S.

2012-04-01

EuroGEOSS is a research project supporting the development of the GEOSS Common Infrastructure and the multi-disciplinary research efforts needed to address global sustainability research. The framework it has developed to integrate data, services, and models from different disciplines is based on a brokering approach that advances the traditional Service Oriented Architecture of spatial data infrastructures. In this paper we demonstrate the added value of this approach. The scientific question we address in this example is o identify ecosystems similar to the ones found in the protected area of "Sierra De Queixa Montes De Invernadeiro Nature Park" in Galicia, Spain. To do this, the user would identify an analytical model suitable to address the question such as the eHabitat model developed by the European Commission Joint Research Centre. It would then use the EuroGEOSS broker to look for the data necessary to run the model such boundaries of the select park, mean drought index, %forest cover, temperature and rainfall, and elevation. The eHabitat model is used to compute the likelihood to find ecosystems in the selected window that are similar to the one found in the selected protected area. The end-user would therefore run the model directly on the web as a web processing service with the data identified in the broker (no need to download the data) and use this information to draw a new area to be protected that would have similar ecological conditions to the initial protected area and display the list of endangered species (to be defined) expected to be found in the new location. Finally, the user can also mine Web 2.0 social networks via the broker to identify pictures of the selected species in the area of interest. This integrated approach based on open standards and interfaces allows the user to find, access, and use the data and models in a transparent way focusing on the research questions to be addressed rather than the technology that delivers the inputs. It is therefore a true demonstration of a service underpinning multi-disciplinary research.

Model weights and the foundations of multimodel inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Barker, R.J.

2006-01-01

Statistical thinking in wildlife biology and ecology has been profoundly influenced by the introduction of AIC (Akaike?s information criterion) as a tool for model selection and as a basis for model averaging. In this paper, we advocate the Bayesian paradigm as a broader framework for multimodel inference, one in which model averaging and model selection are naturally linked, and in which the performance of AIC-based tools is naturally evaluated. Prior model weights implicitly associated with the use of AIC are seen to highly favor complex models: in some cases, all but the most highly parameterized models in the model set are virtually ignored a priori. We suggest the usefulness of the weighted BIC (Bayesian information criterion) as a computationally simple alternative to AIC, based on explicit selection of prior model probabilities rather than acceptance of default priors associated with AIC. We note, however, that both procedures are only approximate to the use of exact Bayes factors. We discuss and illustrate technical difficulties associated with Bayes factors, and suggest approaches to avoiding these difficulties in the context of model selection for a logistic regression. Our example highlights the predisposition of AIC weighting to favor complex models and suggests a need for caution in using the BIC for computing approximate posterior model weights.

A Personalized Predictive Framework for Multivariate Clinical Time Series via Adaptive Model Selection.

PubMed

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2017-11-01

Building of an accurate predictive model of clinical time series for a patient is critical for understanding of the patient condition, its dynamics, and optimal patient management. Unfortunately, this process is not straightforward. First, patient-specific variations are typically large and population-based models derived or learned from many different patients are often unable to support accurate predictions for each individual patient. Moreover, time series observed for one patient at any point in time may be too short and insufficient to learn a high-quality patient-specific model just from the patient's own data. To address these problems we propose, develop and experiment with a new adaptive forecasting framework for building multivariate clinical time series models for a patient and for supporting patient-specific predictions. The framework relies on the adaptive model switching approach that at any point in time selects the most promising time series model out of the pool of many possible models, and consequently, combines advantages of the population, patient-specific and short-term individualized predictive models. We demonstrate that the adaptive model switching framework is very promising approach to support personalized time series prediction, and that it is able to outperform predictions based on pure population and patient-specific models, as well as, other patient-specific model adaptation strategies.

Redefining the Practice of Peer Review Through Intelligent Automation Part 2: Data-Driven Peer Review Selection and Assignment.

PubMed

Reiner, Bruce I

2017-12-01

In conventional radiology peer review practice, a small number of exams (routinely 5% of the total volume) is randomly selected, which may significantly underestimate the true error rate within a given radiology practice. An alternative and preferable approach would be to create a data-driven model which mathematically quantifies a peer review risk score for each individual exam and uses this data to identify high risk exams and readers, and selectively target these exams for peer review. An analogous model can also be created to assist in the assignment of these peer review cases in keeping with specific priorities of the service provider. An additional option to enhance the peer review process would be to assign the peer review cases in a truly blinded fashion. In addition to eliminating traditional peer review bias, this approach has the potential to better define exam-specific standard of care, particularly when multiple readers participate in the peer review process.

Selection of low-variance expressed Malus x domestica (apple) genes for use as quantitative PCR reference genes (housekeepers)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To accurately measure gene expression using PCR-based approaches, there is the need for reference genes that have low variance in expression (housekeeping genes) to normalise the data for RNA quantity and quality. For non-model species such as Malus x domestica (apples), previously, the selection of...

A comparison of two modeling approaches for evaluating wildlife--habitat relationships

Treesearch

Ryan A. Long; Jonathan D. Muir; Janet L. Rachlow; John G. Kie

2009-01-01

Studies of resource selection form the basis for much of our understanding of wildlife habitat requirements, and resource selection functions (RSFs), which predict relative probability of use, have been proposed as a unifying concept for analysis and interpretation of wildlife habitat data. Logistic regression that contrasts used and available or unused resource units...

Low-Complexity User Selection for Rate Maximization in MIMO Broadcast Channels with Downlink Beamforming

PubMed Central

Silva, Adão; Gameiro, Atílio

2014-01-01

We present in this work a low-complexity algorithm to solve the sum rate maximization problem in multiuser MIMO broadcast channels with downlink beamforming. Our approach decouples the user selection problem from the resource allocation problem and its main goal is to create a set of quasiorthogonal users. The proposed algorithm exploits physical metrics of the wireless channels that can be easily computed in such a way that a null space projection power can be approximated efficiently. Based on the derived metrics we present a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of the user selection process which renders the user selection problem into an integer linear program. Numerical results show that our approach is highly efficient to form groups of quasiorthogonal users when compared to previously proposed algorithms in the literature. Our user selection algorithm achieves a large portion of the optimum user selection sum rate (90%) for a moderate number of active users. PMID:24574928

Estimating the "impact" of out-of-home placement on child well-being: approaching the problem of selection bias.

PubMed

Berger, Lawrence M; Bruch, Sarah K; Johnson, Elizabeth I; James, Sigrid; Rubin, David

2009-01-01

This study used data on 2,453 children aged 4-17 from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being and 5 analytic methods that adjust for selection factors to estimate the impact of out-of-home placement on children's cognitive skills and behavior problems. Methods included ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions and residualized change, simple change, difference-in-difference, and fixed effects models. Models were estimated using the full sample and a matched sample generated by propensity scoring. Although results from the unmatched OLS and residualized change models suggested that out-of-home placement is associated with increased child behavior problems, estimates from models that more rigorously adjust for selection bias indicated that placement has little effect on children's cognitive skills or behavior problems.

Algorithmic design of a noise-resistant and efficient closed-loop deep brain stimulation system: A computational approach.

PubMed

Karamintziou, Sofia D; Custódio, Ana Luísa; Piallat, Brigitte; Polosan, Mircea; Chabardès, Stéphan; Stathis, Pantelis G; Tagaris, George A; Sakas, Damianos E; Polychronaki, Georgia E; Tsirogiannis, George L; David, Olivier; Nikita, Konstantina S

2017-01-01

Advances in the field of closed-loop neuromodulation call for analysis and modeling approaches capable of confronting challenges related to the complex neuronal response to stimulation and the presence of strong internal and measurement noise in neural recordings. Here we elaborate on the algorithmic aspects of a noise-resistant closed-loop subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation system for advanced Parkinson's disease and treatment-refractory obsessive-compulsive disorder, ensuring remarkable performance in terms of both efficiency and selectivity of stimulation, as well as in terms of computational speed. First, we propose an efficient method drawn from dynamical systems theory, for the reliable assessment of significant nonlinear coupling between beta and high-frequency subthalamic neuronal activity, as a biomarker for feedback control. Further, we present a model-based strategy through which optimal parameters of stimulation for minimum energy desynchronizing control of neuronal activity are being identified. The strategy integrates stochastic modeling and derivative-free optimization of neural dynamics based on quadratic modeling. On the basis of numerical simulations, we demonstrate the potential of the presented modeling approach to identify, at a relatively low computational cost, stimulation settings potentially associated with a significantly higher degree of efficiency and selectivity compared with stimulation settings determined post-operatively. Our data reinforce the hypothesis that model-based control strategies are crucial for the design of novel stimulation protocols at the backstage of clinical applications.

Mixed conditional logistic regression for habitat selection studies.

PubMed

Duchesne, Thierry; Fortin, Daniel; Courbin, Nicolas

2010-05-01

1. Resource selection functions (RSFs) are becoming a dominant tool in habitat selection studies. RSF coefficients can be estimated with unconditional (standard) and conditional logistic regressions. While the advantage of mixed-effects models is recognized for standard logistic regression, mixed conditional logistic regression remains largely overlooked in ecological studies. 2. We demonstrate the significance of mixed conditional logistic regression for habitat selection studies. First, we use spatially explicit models to illustrate how mixed-effects RSFs can be useful in the presence of inter-individual heterogeneity in selection and when the assumption of independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) is violated. The IIA hypothesis states that the strength of preference for habitat type A over habitat type B does not depend on the other habitat types also available. Secondly, we demonstrate the significance of mixed-effects models to evaluate habitat selection of free-ranging bison Bison bison. 3. When movement rules were homogeneous among individuals and the IIA assumption was respected, fixed-effects RSFs adequately described habitat selection by simulated animals. In situations violating the inter-individual homogeneity and IIA assumptions, however, RSFs were best estimated with mixed-effects regressions, and fixed-effects models could even provide faulty conclusions. 4. Mixed-effects models indicate that bison did not select farmlands, but exhibited strong inter-individual variations in their response to farmlands. Less than half of the bison preferred farmlands over forests. Conversely, the fixed-effect model simply suggested an overall selection for farmlands. 5. Conditional logistic regression is recognized as a powerful approach to evaluate habitat selection when resource availability changes. This regression is increasingly used in ecological studies, but almost exclusively in the context of fixed-effects models. Fitness maximization can imply differences in trade-offs among individuals, which can yield inter-individual differences in selection and lead to departure from IIA. These situations are best modelled with mixed-effects models. Mixed-effects conditional logistic regression should become a valuable tool for ecological research.

Proteochemometric Modeling of the Interaction Space of Carbonic Anhydrase and its Inhibitors: An Assessment of Structure-based and Sequence-based Descriptors.

PubMed

Rasti, Behnam; Namazi, Mohsen; Karimi-Jafari, M H; Ghasemi, Jahan B

2017-04-01

Due to its physiological and clinical roles, carbonic anhydrase (CA) is one of the most interesting case studies. There are different classes of CAinhibitors including sulfonamides, polyamines, coumarins and dithiocarbamates (DTCs). However, many of them hardly act as a selective inhibitor against a specific isoform. Therefore, finding highly selective inhibitors for different isoforms of CA is still an ongoing project. Proteochemometrics modeling (PCM) is able to model the bioactivity of multiple compounds against different isoforms of a protein. Therefore, it would be extremely applicable when investigating the selectivity of different ligands towards different receptors. Given the facts, we applied PCM to investigate the interaction space and structural properties that lead to the selective inhibition of CA isoforms by some dithiocarbamates. Our models have provided interesting structural information that can be considered to design compounds capable of inhibiting different isoforms of CA in an improved selective manner. Validity and predictivity of the models were confirmed by both internal and external validation methods; while Y-scrambling approach was applied to assess the robustness of the models. To prove the reliability and the applicability of our findings, we showed how ligands-receptors selectivity can be affected by removing any of these critical findings from the modeling process. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Methodology of functionality selection for water management software and examples of its application.

PubMed

Vasilyev, K N

2013-01-01

When developing new software products and adapting existing software, project leaders have to decide which functionalities to keep, adapt or develop. They have to consider that the cost of making errors during the specification phase is extremely high. In this paper a formalised approach is proposed that considers the main criteria for selecting new software functions. The application of this approach minimises the chances of making errors in selecting the functions to apply. Based on the work on software development and support projects in the area of water resources and flood damage evaluation in economic terms at CH2M HILL (the developers of the flood modelling package ISIS), the author has defined seven criteria for selecting functions to be included in a software product. The approach is based on the evaluation of the relative significance of the functions to be included into the software product. Evaluation is achieved by considering each criterion and the weighting coefficients of each criterion in turn and applying the method of normalisation. This paper includes a description of this new approach and examples of its application in the development of new software products in the are of the water resources management.

Experimental measurement of binding energy, selectivity, and allostery using fluctuation theorems.

PubMed

Camunas-Soler, Joan; Alemany, Anna; Ritort, Felix

2017-01-27

Thermodynamic bulk measurements of binding reactions rely on the validity of the law of mass action and the assumption of a dilute solution. Yet, important biological systems such as allosteric ligand-receptor binding, macromolecular crowding, or misfolded molecules may not follow these assumptions and may require a particular reaction model. Here we introduce a fluctuation theorem for ligand binding and an experimental approach using single-molecule force spectroscopy to determine binding energies, selectivity, and allostery of nucleic acids and peptides in a model-independent fashion. A similar approach could be used for proteins. This work extends the use of fluctuation theorems beyond unimolecular folding reactions, bridging the thermodynamics of small systems and the basic laws of chemical equilibrium. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Real Time Optima Tracking Using Harvesting Models of the Genetic Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baskaran, Subbiah; Noever, D.

1999-01-01

Tracking optima in real time propulsion control, particularly for non-stationary optimization problems is a challenging task. Several approaches have been put forward for such a study including the numerical method called the genetic algorithm. In brief, this approach is built upon Darwinian-style competition between numerical alternatives displayed in the form of binary strings, or by analogy to 'pseudogenes'. Breeding of improved solution is an often cited parallel to natural selection in.evolutionary or soft computing. In this report we present our results of applying a novel model of a genetic algorithm for tracking optima in propulsion engineering and in real time control. We specialize the algorithm to mission profiling and planning optimizations, both to select reduced propulsion needs through trajectory planning and to explore time or fuel conservation strategies.

Velocity-based movement modeling for individual and population level inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Sterling, Jeremy T.

2011-01-01

Understanding animal movement and resource selection provides important information about the ecology of the animal, but an animal's movement and behavior are not typically constant in time. We present a velocity-based approach for modeling animal movement in space and time that allows for temporal heterogeneity in an animal's response to the environment, allows for temporal irregularity in telemetry data, and accounts for the uncertainty in the location information. Population-level inference on movement patterns and resource selection can then be made through cluster analysis of the parameters related to movement and behavior. We illustrate this approach through a study of northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) movement in the Bering Sea, Alaska, USA. Results show sex differentiation, with female northern fur seals exhibiting stronger response to environmental variables.

Return to Work After Lumbar Microdiscectomy - Personalizing Approach Through Predictive Modeling.

PubMed

Papić, Monika; Brdar, Sanja; Papić, Vladimir; Lončar-Turukalo, Tatjana

2016-01-01

Lumbar disc herniation (LDH) is the most common disease among working population requiring surgical intervention. This study aims to predict the return to work after operative treatment of LDH based on the observational study including 153 patients. The classification problem was approached using decision trees (DT), support vector machines (SVM) and multilayer perception (MLP) combined with RELIEF algorithm for feature selection. MLP provided best recall of 0.86 for the class of patients not returning to work, which combined with the selected features enables early identification and personalized targeted interventions towards subjects at risk of prolonged disability. The predictive modeling indicated at the most decisive risk factors in prolongation of work absence: psychosocial factors, mobility of the spine and structural changes of facet joints and professional factors including standing, sitting and microclimate.

Velocity-Based Movement Modeling for Individual and Population Level Inference

PubMed Central

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Sterling, Jeremy T.

2011-01-01

Understanding animal movement and resource selection provides important information about the ecology of the animal, but an animal's movement and behavior are not typically constant in time. We present a velocity-based approach for modeling animal movement in space and time that allows for temporal heterogeneity in an animal's response to the environment, allows for temporal irregularity in telemetry data, and accounts for the uncertainty in the location information. Population-level inference on movement patterns and resource selection can then be made through cluster analysis of the parameters related to movement and behavior. We illustrate this approach through a study of northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) movement in the Bering Sea, Alaska, USA. Results show sex differentiation, with female northern fur seals exhibiting stronger response to environmental variables. PMID:21931584

A Model of Internal Communication in Adaptive Communication Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, M. Lee

A study identified and categorized different types of internal communication systems and developed an applied model of internal communication in adaptive organizational systems. Twenty-one large organizations were selected for their varied missions and diverse approaches to managing internal communication. Individual face-to-face or telephone…

Appraising Teacher Performance: A Quantitative Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wingate, James G.; Bowers, Fred

Following a brief research review regarding the relationship between teacher behavior and student outcomes, a model is proposed for identifying those teaching behaviors that are significantly related to high-quality student performance. The model's stages include: (1) delineation of questions; (2) establishment of a framework; (3) selection of an…

Partial unfolding and refolding for structure refinement: A unified approach of geometric simulations and molecular dynamics.

PubMed

Kumar, Avishek; Campitelli, Paul; Thorpe, M F; Ozkan, S Banu

2015-12-01

The most successful protein structure prediction methods to date have been template-based modeling (TBM) or homology modeling, which predicts protein structure based on experimental structures. These high accuracy predictions sometimes retain structural errors due to incorrect templates or a lack of accurate templates in the case of low sequence similarity, making these structures inadequate in drug-design studies or molecular dynamics simulations. We have developed a new physics based approach to the protein refinement problem by mimicking the mechanism of chaperons that rehabilitate misfolded proteins. The template structure is unfolded by selectively (targeted) pulling on different portions of the protein using the geometric based technique FRODA, and then refolded using hierarchically restrained replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations (hr-REMD). FRODA unfolding is used to create a diverse set of topologies for surveying near native-like structures from a template and to provide a set of persistent contacts to be employed during re-folding. We have tested our approach on 13 previous CASP targets and observed that this method of folding an ensemble of partially unfolded structures, through the hierarchical addition of contact restraints (that is, first local and then nonlocal interactions), leads to a refolding of the structure along with refinement in most cases (12/13). Although this approach yields refined models through advancement in sampling, the task of blind selection of the best refined models still needs to be solved. Overall, the method can be useful for improved sampling for low resolution models where certain of the portions of the structure are incorrectly modeled. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluation and selection of sustainable suppliers in supply chain using new GP-DEA model with imprecise data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafarzadeh Ghoushchi, Saeid; Dodkanloi Milan, Mehran; Jahangoshai Rezaee, Mustafa

2017-11-01

Nowadays, with respect to knowledge growth about enterprise sustainability, sustainable supplier selection is considered a vital factor in sustainable supply chain management. On the other hand, usually in real problems, the data are imprecise. One method that is helpful for the evaluation and selection of the sustainable supplier and has the ability to use a variety of data types is data envelopment analysis (DEA). In the present article, first, the supplier efficiency is measured with respect to all economic, social and environmental dimensions using DEA and applying imprecise data. Then, to have a general evaluation of the suppliers, the DEA model is developed using imprecise data based on goal programming (GP). Integrating the set of criteria changes the new model into a coherent framework for sustainable supplier selection. Moreover, employing this model in a multilateral sustainable supplier selection can be an incentive for the suppliers to move towards environmental, social and economic activities. Improving environmental, economic and social performance will mean improving the supply chain performance. Finally, the application of the proposed approach is presented with a real dataset.

Comparing Nonsynergy Gamma Models and Interaction Models To Predict Growth of Emetic Bacillus cereus for Combinations of pH and Water Activity Values ▿

PubMed Central

Biesta-Peters, Elisabeth G.; Reij, Martine W.; Zwietering, Marcel H.; Gorris, Leon G. M.

2011-01-01

This research aims to test the absence (gamma hypothesis) or occurrence of synergy between two growth-limiting factors, i.e., pH and water activity (aw), using a systematic approach for model selection. In this approach, preset criteria were used to evaluate the performance of models. Such a systematic approach is required to be confident in the correctness of the individual components of the combined (synergy) models. With Bacillus cereus F4810/72 as the test organism, estimated growth boundaries for the aw-lowering solutes NaCl, KCl, and glucose were 1.13 M, 1.13 M, and 1.68 M, respectively. The accompanying aw values were 0.954, 0.956, and 0.961, respectively, indicating that equal aw values result in similar effects on growth. Out of the 12 models evaluated using the preset criteria, the model of J. H. T. Luong (Biotechnol. Bioeng. 27:280–285, 1985) was the best model to describe the effect of aw on growth. This aw model and the previously selected pH model were combined into a gamma model and into two synergy models. None of the three models was able to describe the combined pH and aw conditions sufficiently well to satisfy the preset criteria. The best matches between predicted and experimental data were obtained with the gamma model, followed by the synergy model of Y. Le Marc et al. (Int. J. Food Microbiol. 73:219–237, 2002). No combination of models that was able to predict the impact of both individual and combined hurdles correctly could be found. Consequently, in this case we could not prove the existence of synergy nor falsify the gamma hypothesis. PMID:21705525

Hierarchical time series bottom-up approach for forecast the export value in Central Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahkya, D. A.; Ulama, B. S.; Suhartono

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study is Getting the best modeling and predicting the export value of Central Java using a Hierarchical Time Series. The export value is one variable injection in the economy of a country, meaning that if the export value of the country increases, the country’s economy will increase even more. Therefore, it is necessary appropriate modeling to predict the export value especially in Central Java. Export Value in Central Java are grouped into 21 commodities with each commodity has a different pattern. One approach that can be used time series is a hierarchical approach. Hierarchical Time Series is used Buttom-up. To Forecast the individual series at all levels using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN), and Hybrid ARIMA-RBFNN. For the selection of the best models used Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE). Results of the analysis showed that for the Export Value of Central Java, Bottom-up approach with Hybrid ARIMA-RBFNN modeling can be used for long-term predictions. As for the short and medium-term predictions, it can be used a bottom-up approach RBFNN modeling. Overall bottom-up approach with RBFNN modeling give the best result.

A Multicriteria Approach to Find Predictive and Sparse Models with Stable Feature Selection for High-Dimensional Data.

PubMed

Bommert, Andrea; Rahnenführer, Jörg; Lang, Michel

2017-01-01

Finding a good predictive model for a high-dimensional data set can be challenging. For genetic data, it is not only important to find a model with high predictive accuracy, but it is also important that this model uses only few features and that the selection of these features is stable. This is because, in bioinformatics, the models are used not only for prediction but also for drawing biological conclusions which makes the interpretability and reliability of the model crucial. We suggest using three target criteria when fitting a predictive model to a high-dimensional data set: the classification accuracy, the stability of the feature selection, and the number of chosen features. As it is unclear which measure is best for evaluating the stability, we first compare a variety of stability measures. We conclude that the Pearson correlation has the best theoretical and empirical properties. Also, we find that for the stability assessment behaviour it is most important that a measure contains a correction for chance or large numbers of chosen features. Then, we analyse Pareto fronts and conclude that it is possible to find models with a stable selection of few features without losing much predictive accuracy.

Ensemble Feature Learning of Genomic Data Using Support Vector Machine

PubMed Central

Anaissi, Ali; Goyal, Madhu; Catchpoole, Daniel R.; Braytee, Ali; Kennedy, Paul J.

2016-01-01

The identification of a subset of genes having the ability to capture the necessary information to distinguish classes of patients is crucial in bioinformatics applications. Ensemble and bagging methods have been shown to work effectively in the process of gene selection and classification. Testament to that is random forest which combines random decision trees with bagging to improve overall feature selection and classification accuracy. Surprisingly, the adoption of these methods in support vector machines has only recently received attention but mostly on classification not gene selection. This paper introduces an ensemble SVM-Recursive Feature Elimination (ESVM-RFE) for gene selection that follows the concepts of ensemble and bagging used in random forest but adopts the backward elimination strategy which is the rationale of RFE algorithm. The rationale behind this is, building ensemble SVM models using randomly drawn bootstrap samples from the training set, will produce different feature rankings which will be subsequently aggregated as one feature ranking. As a result, the decision for elimination of features is based upon the ranking of multiple SVM models instead of choosing one particular model. Moreover, this approach will address the problem of imbalanced datasets by constructing a nearly balanced bootstrap sample. Our experiments show that ESVM-RFE for gene selection substantially increased the classification performance on five microarray datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods. Experiments on the childhood leukaemia dataset show that an average 9% better accuracy is achieved by ESVM-RFE over SVM-RFE, and 5% over random forest based approach. The selected genes by the ESVM-RFE algorithm were further explored with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) which reveals significant clusters with the selected data. PMID:27304923

Evidence accumulation as a model for lexical selection.

PubMed

Anders, R; Riès, S; van Maanen, L; Alario, F X

2015-11-01

We propose and demonstrate evidence accumulation as a plausible theoretical and/or empirical model for the lexical selection process of lexical retrieval. A number of current psycholinguistic theories consider lexical selection as a process related to selecting a lexical target from a number of alternatives, which each have varying activations (or signal supports), that are largely resultant of an initial stimulus recognition. We thoroughly present a case for how such a process may be theoretically explained by the evidence accumulation paradigm, and we demonstrate how this paradigm can be directly related or combined with conventional psycholinguistic theory and their simulatory instantiations (generally, neural network models). Then with a demonstrative application on a large new real data set, we establish how the empirical evidence accumulation approach is able to provide parameter results that are informative to leading psycholinguistic theory, and that motivate future theoretical development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The discounting model selector: Statistical software for delay discounting applications.

PubMed

Gilroy, Shawn P; Franck, Christopher T; Hantula, Donald A

2017-05-01

Original, open-source computer software was developed and validated against established delay discounting methods in the literature. The software executed approximate Bayesian model selection methods from user-supplied temporal discounting data and computed the effective delay 50 (ED50) from the best performing model. Software was custom-designed to enable behavior analysts to conveniently apply recent statistical methods to temporal discounting data with the aid of a graphical user interface (GUI). The results of independent validation of the approximate Bayesian model selection methods indicated that the program provided results identical to that of the original source paper and its methods. Monte Carlo simulation (n = 50,000) confirmed that true model was selected most often in each setting. Simulation code and data for this study were posted to an online repository for use by other researchers. The model selection approach was applied to three existing delay discounting data sets from the literature in addition to the data from the source paper. Comparisons of model selected ED50 were consistent with traditional indices of discounting. Conceptual issues related to the development and use of computer software by behavior analysts and the opportunities afforded by free and open-sourced software are discussed and a review of possible expansions of this software are provided. © 2017 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Application and project portfolio valuation using enterprise architecture and business requirements modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quartel, Dick; Steen, Maarten W. A.; Lankhorst, Marc M.

2012-05-01

This article describes an architecture-based approach to IT valuation. This approach offers organisations an instrument to valuate their application and project portfolios and to make well-balanced decisions about IT investments. The value of a software application is assessed in terms of its contribution to a selection of business goals. Based on such assessments, the value of different applications can be compared, and requirements for innovation, development, maintenance and phasing out can be identified. IT projects are proposed to realise the requirements. The value of each project is assessed in terms of the value it adds to one or more applications. This value can be obtained by relating the 'as-is' application portfolio to the 'to-be' portfolio that is being proposed by the project portfolio. In this way, projects can be ranked according to their added value, given a certain selection of business goals. The approach uses ArchiMate to model the relationship between software applications, business processes, services and products. In addition, two language extensions are used to model the relationship of these elements to business goals and requirements and to projects and project portfolios. The approach is illustrated using the portfolio method of Bedell and has been implemented in BiZZdesign Architect.

Statistical limitations in functional neuroimaging. I. Non-inferential methods and statistical models.

PubMed Central

Petersson, K M; Nichols, T E; Poline, J B; Holmes, A P

1999-01-01

Functional neuroimaging (FNI) provides experimental access to the intact living brain making it possible to study higher cognitive functions in humans. In this review and in a companion paper in this issue, we discuss some common methods used to analyse FNI data. The emphasis in both papers is on assumptions and limitations of the methods reviewed. There are several methods available to analyse FNI data indicating that none is optimal for all purposes. In order to make optimal use of the methods available it is important to know the limits of applicability. For the interpretation of FNI results it is also important to take into account the assumptions, approximations and inherent limitations of the methods used. This paper gives a brief overview over some non-inferential descriptive methods and common statistical models used in FNI. Issues relating to the complex problem of model selection are discussed. In general, proper model selection is a necessary prerequisite for the validity of the subsequent statistical inference. The non-inferential section describes methods that, combined with inspection of parameter estimates and other simple measures, can aid in the process of model selection and verification of assumptions. The section on statistical models covers approaches to global normalization and some aspects of univariate, multivariate, and Bayesian models. Finally, approaches to functional connectivity and effective connectivity are discussed. In the companion paper we review issues related to signal detection and statistical inference. PMID:10466149

Portfolio optimization using median-variance approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan Mohd, Wan Rosanisah; Mohamad, Daud; Mohamed, Zulkifli

2013-04-01

Optimization models have been applied in many decision-making problems particularly in portfolio selection. Since the introduction of Markowitz's theory of portfolio selection, various approaches based on mathematical programming have been introduced such as mean-variance, mean-absolute deviation, mean-variance-skewness and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) mainly to maximize return and minimize risk. However most of the approaches assume that the distribution of data is normal and this is not generally true. As an alternative, in this paper, we employ the median-variance approach to improve the portfolio optimization. This approach has successfully catered both types of normal and non-normal distribution of data. With this actual representation, we analyze and compare the rate of return and risk between the mean-variance and the median-variance based portfolio which consist of 30 stocks from Bursa Malaysia. The results in this study show that the median-variance approach is capable to produce a lower risk for each return earning as compared to the mean-variance approach.

Emerging from Depression: Treatment of Adolescent Depression Using the Major Treatment Models of Adult Depression.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Long, Kathleen M.

Noting that adolescents who commit suicide are often clinically depressed, this paper examines various approaches in the treatment of depression. Major treatment models of adult depression, which can be directly applied to the treatment of the depressed adolescent, are described. Major treatment models and selected research studies are reviewed in…

The effects of climate downscaling technique and observational data set on modeled ecological responses

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe; Anne M. K. Stoner

2016-01-01

Assessments of future climate change impacts on ecosystems typically rely on multiple climate model projections, but often utilize only one downscaling approach trained on one set of observations. Here, we explore the extent to which modeled biogeochemical responses to changing climate are affected by the selection of the climate downscaling method and training...

Developing approaches for linear mixed modeling in landscape genetics through landscape-directed dispersal simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Row, Jeffrey R.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Lougheed, Stephen C.; Fedy, Bradley C.

2017-01-01

Dispersal can impact population dynamics and geographic variation, and thus, genetic approaches that can establish which landscape factors influence population connectivity have ecological and evolutionary importance. Mixed models that account for the error structure of pairwise datasets are increasingly used to compare models relating genetic differentiation to pairwise measures of landscape resistance. A model selection framework based on information criteria metrics or explained variance may help disentangle the ecological and landscape factors influencing genetic structure, yet there are currently no consensus for the best protocols. Here, we develop landscape-directed simulations and test a series of replicates that emulate independent empirical datasets of two species with different life history characteristics (greater sage-grouse; eastern foxsnake). We determined that in our simulated scenarios, AIC and BIC were the best model selection indices and that marginal R2 values were biased toward more complex models. The model coefficients for landscape variables generally reflected the underlying dispersal model with confidence intervals that did not overlap with zero across the entire model set. When we controlled for geographic distance, variables not in the underlying dispersal models (i.e., nontrue) typically overlapped zero. Our study helps establish methods for using linear mixed models to identify the features underlying patterns of dispersal across a variety of landscapes.

Maximum likelihood-based analysis of single-molecule photon arrival trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajdziona, Marta; Molski, Andrzej

2011-02-01

In this work we explore the statistical properties of the maximum likelihood-based analysis of one-color photon arrival trajectories. This approach does not involve binning and, therefore, all of the information contained in an observed photon strajectory is used. We study the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates and the efficiency of the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in selecting the true kinetic model. We focus on the low excitation regime where photon trajectories can be modeled as realizations of Markov modulated Poisson processes. The number of observed photons is the key parameter in determining model selection and parameter estimation. For example, the BIC can select the true three-state model from competing two-, three-, and four-state kinetic models even for relatively short trajectories made up of 2 × 103 photons. When the intensity levels are well-separated and 104 photons are observed, the two-state model parameters can be estimated with about 10% precision and those for a three-state model with about 20% precision.

Dynamic Metabolic Model Building Based on the Ensemble Modeling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liao, James C.

2016-10-01

Ensemble modeling of kinetic systems addresses the challenges of kinetic model construction, with respect to parameter value selection, and still allows for the rich insights possible from kinetic models. This project aimed to show that constructing, implementing, and analyzing such models is a useful tool for the metabolic engineering toolkit, and that they can result in actionable insights from models. Key concepts are developed and deliverable publications and results are presented.

Quantitative structure-activity relationship analysis and virtual screening studies for identifying HDAC2 inhibitors from known HDAC bioactive chemical libraries.

PubMed

Pham-The, H; Casañola-Martin, G; Diéguez-Santana, K; Nguyen-Hai, N; Ngoc, N T; Vu-Duc, L; Le-Thi-Thu, H

2017-03-01

Histone deacetylases (HDAC) are emerging as promising targets in cancer, neuronal diseases and immune disorders. Computational modelling approaches have been widely applied for the virtual screening and rational design of novel HDAC inhibitors. In this study, different machine learning (ML) techniques were applied for the development of models that accurately discriminate HDAC2 inhibitors form non-inhibitors. The obtained models showed encouraging results, with the global accuracy in the external set ranging from 0.83 to 0.90. Various aspects related to the comparison of modelling techniques, applicability domain and descriptor interpretations were discussed. Finally, consensus predictions of these models were used for screening HDAC2 inhibitors from four chemical libraries whose bioactivities against HDAC1, HDAC3, HDAC6 and HDAC8 have been known. According to the results of virtual screening assays, structures of some hits with pair-isoform-selective activity (between HDAC2 and other HDACs) were revealed. This study illustrates the power of ML-based QSAR approaches for the screening and discovery of potent, isoform-selective HDACIs.

A systematic approach to selecting task relevant neurons.

PubMed

Kahn, Kevin; Saxena, Shreya; Eskandar, Emad; Thakor, Nitish; Schieber, Marc; Gale, John T; Averbeck, Bruno; Eden, Uri; Sarma, Sridevi V

2015-04-30

Since task related neurons cannot be specifically targeted during surgery, a critical decision to make is to select which neurons are task-related when performing data analysis. Including neurons unrelated to the task degrade decoding accuracy and confound neurophysiological results. Traditionally, task-related neurons are selected as those with significant changes in firing rate when a stimulus is applied. However, this assumes that neurons' encoding of stimuli are dominated by their firing rate with little regard to temporal dynamics. This paper proposes a systematic approach for neuron selection, which uses a likelihood ratio test to capture the contribution of stimulus to spiking activity while taking into account task-irrelevant intrinsic dynamics that affect firing rates. This approach is denoted as the model deterioration excluding stimulus (MDES) test. MDES is compared to firing rate selection in four case studies: a simulation, a decoding example, and two neurophysiology examples. The MDES rankings in the simulation match closely with ideal rankings, while firing rate rankings are skewed by task-irrelevant parameters. For decoding, 95% accuracy is achieved using the top 8 MDES-ranked neurons, while the top 12 firing-rate ranked neurons are needed. In the neurophysiological examples, MDES matches published results when firing rates do encode salient stimulus information, and uncovers oscillatory modulations in task-related neurons that are not captured when neurons are selected using firing rates. These case studies illustrate the importance of accounting for intrinsic dynamics when selecting task-related neurons and following the MDES approach accomplishes that. MDES selects neurons that encode task-related information irrespective of these intrinsic dynamics which can bias firing rate based selection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A global optimization approach to multi-polarity sentiment analysis.

PubMed

Li, Xinmiao; Li, Jing; Wu, Yukeng

2015-01-01

Following the rapid development of social media, sentiment analysis has become an important social media mining technique. The performance of automatic sentiment analysis primarily depends on feature selection and sentiment classification. While information gain (IG) and support vector machines (SVM) are two important techniques, few studies have optimized both approaches in sentiment analysis. The effectiveness of applying a global optimization approach to sentiment analysis remains unclear. We propose a global optimization-based sentiment analysis (PSOGO-Senti) approach to improve sentiment analysis with IG for feature selection and SVM as the learning engine. The PSOGO-Senti approach utilizes a particle swarm optimization algorithm to obtain a global optimal combination of feature dimensions and parameters in the SVM. We evaluate the PSOGO-Senti model on two datasets from different fields. The experimental results showed that the PSOGO-Senti model can improve binary and multi-polarity Chinese sentiment analysis. We compared the optimal feature subset selected by PSOGO-Senti with the features in the sentiment dictionary. The results of this comparison indicated that PSOGO-Senti can effectively remove redundant and noisy features and can select a domain-specific feature subset with a higher-explanatory power for a particular sentiment analysis task. The experimental results showed that the PSOGO-Senti approach is effective and robust for sentiment analysis tasks in different domains. By comparing the improvements of two-polarity, three-polarity and five-polarity sentiment analysis results, we found that the five-polarity sentiment analysis delivered the largest improvement. The improvement of the two-polarity sentiment analysis was the smallest. We conclude that the PSOGO-Senti achieves higher improvement for a more complicated sentiment analysis task. We also compared the results of PSOGO-Senti with those of the genetic algorithm (GA) and grid search method. From the results of this comparison, we found that PSOGO-Senti is more suitable for improving a difficult multi-polarity sentiment analysis problem.

Venus Gravity: 180th Degree and Order Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Konopliv, A. S.; Banerdt, W. B.; Sjogren, W. L.

1998-01-01

The Megallan Doppler radiometric tracking data provides unprecedented precision for spacecraft based gravity measurements with the maximum resolution approaching spherical harmonic degree and order 180 in selected equatorial regions.

Evaluating Individual Students' Perceptions of Instructional Quality: An Investigation of their Factor Structure, Measurement Invariance, and Relations to Educational Outcomes.

PubMed

Scherer, Ronny; Nilsen, Trude; Jansen, Malte

2016-01-01

Students' perceptions of instructional quality are among the most important criteria for evaluating teaching effectiveness. The present study evaluates different latent variable modeling approaches (confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory structural equation modeling, and bifactor modeling), which are used to describe these individual perceptions with respect to their factor structure, measurement invariance, and the relations to selected educational outcomes (achievement, self-concept, and motivation in mathematics). On the basis of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2012 large-scale data sets of Australia, Canada, and the USA (N = 26,746 students), we find support for the distinction between three factors of individual students' perceptions and full measurement invariance across countries for all modeling approaches. In this regard, bifactor exploratory structural equation modeling outperformed alternative approaches with respect to model fit. Our findings reveal significant relations to the educational outcomes. This study synthesizes different modeling approaches of individual students' perceptions of instructional quality and provides insights into the nature of these perceptions from an individual differences perspective. Implications for the measurement and modeling of individually perceived instructional quality are discussed.

The evolution of sexes: A specific test of the disruptive selection theory.

PubMed

da Silva, Jack

2018-01-01

The disruptive selection theory of the evolution of anisogamy posits that the evolution of a larger body or greater organismal complexity selects for a larger zygote, which in turn selects for larger gametes. This may provide the opportunity for one mating type to produce more numerous, small gametes, forcing the other mating type to produce fewer, large gametes. Predictions common to this and related theories have been partially upheld. Here, a prediction specific to the disruptive selection theory is derived from a previously published game-theoretic model that represents the most complete description of the theory. The prediction, that the ratio of macrogamete to microgamete size should be above three for anisogamous species, is supported for the volvocine algae. A fully population genetic implementation of the model, involving mutation, genetic drift, and selection, is used to verify the game-theoretic approach and accurately simulates the evolution of gamete sizes in anisogamous species. This model was extended to include a locus for gamete motility and shows that oogamy should evolve whenever there is costly motility. The classic twofold cost of sex may be derived from the fitness functions of these models, showing that this cost is ultimately due to genetic conflict.

Extraction of S- and N-compounds from the mixture of hydrocarbons by ionic liquids as selective solvents.

PubMed

Gabrić, Beata; Sander, Aleksandra; Cvjetko Bubalo, Marina; Macut, Dejan

2013-01-01

Liquid-liquid extraction is an alternative method that can be used for desulfurization and denitrification of gasoline and diesel fuels. Recent approaches employ different ionic liquids as selective solvents, due to their general immiscibility with gasoline and diesel, negligible vapor pressure, and high selectivity to sulfur- and nitrogen-containing compounds. For that reason, five imidazolium-based ionic liquids and one pyridinium-based ionic liquid were selected for extraction of thiophene, dibenzothiophene, and pyridine from two model solutions. The influences of hydrodynamic conditions, mass ratio, and number of stages were investigated. Increasing the mass ratio of ionic liquid/model fuel and multistage extraction promotes the desulfurization and denitrification abilities of the examined ionic liquids. All selected ionic liquids can be reused and regenerated by means of vacuum evaporation.

Extraction of S- and N-Compounds from the Mixture of Hydrocarbons by Ionic Liquids as Selective Solvents

PubMed Central

Gabrić, Beata; Sander, Aleksandra; Cvjetko Bubalo, Marina; Macut, Dejan

2013-01-01

Liquid-liquid extraction is an alternative method that can be used for desulfurization and denitrification of gasoline and diesel fuels. Recent approaches employ different ionic liquids as selective solvents, due to their general immiscibility with gasoline and diesel, negligible vapor pressure, and high selectivity to sulfur- and nitrogen-containing compounds. For that reason, five imidazolium-based ionic liquids and one pyridinium-based ionic liquid were selected for extraction of thiophene, dibenzothiophene, and pyridine from two model solutions. The influences of hydrodynamic conditions, mass ratio, and number of stages were investigated. Increasing the mass ratio of ionic liquid/model fuel and multistage extraction promotes the desulfurization and denitrification abilities of the examined ionic liquids. All selected ionic liquids can be reused and regenerated by means of vacuum evaporation. PMID:23843736

Item selection via Bayesian IRT models.

PubMed

Arima, Serena

2015-02-10

With reference to a questionnaire that aimed to assess the quality of life for dysarthric speakers, we investigate the usefulness of a model-based procedure for reducing the number of items. We propose a mixed cumulative logit model, which is known in the psychometrics literature as the graded response model: responses to different items are modelled as a function of individual latent traits and as a function of item characteristics, such as their difficulty and their discrimination power. We jointly model the discrimination and the difficulty parameters by using a k-component mixture of normal distributions. Mixture components correspond to disjoint groups of items. Items that belong to the same groups can be considered equivalent in terms of both difficulty and discrimination power. According to decision criteria, we select a subset of items such that the reduced questionnaire is able to provide the same information that the complete questionnaire provides. The model is estimated by using a Bayesian approach, and the choice of the number of mixture components is justified according to information criteria. We illustrate the proposed approach on the basis of data that are collected for 104 dysarthric patients by local health authorities in Lecce and in Milan. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A biologically inspired network design model.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoge; Adamatzky, Andrew; Chan, Felix T S; Deng, Yong; Yang, Hai; Yang, Xin-She; Tsompanas, Michail-Antisthenis I; Sirakoulis, Georgios Ch; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2015-06-04

A network design problem is to select a subset of links in a transport network that satisfy passengers or cargo transportation demands while minimizing the overall costs of the transportation. We propose a mathematical model of the foraging behaviour of slime mould P. polycephalum to solve the network design problem and construct optimal transport networks. In our algorithm, a traffic flow between any two cities is estimated using a gravity model. The flow is imitated by the model of the slime mould. The algorithm model converges to a steady state, which represents a solution of the problem. We validate our approach on examples of major transport networks in Mexico and China. By comparing networks developed in our approach with the man-made highways, networks developed by the slime mould, and a cellular automata model inspired by slime mould, we demonstrate the flexibility and efficiency of our approach.

A Biologically Inspired Network Design Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiaoge; Adamatzky, Andrew; Chan, Felix T.S.; Deng, Yong; Yang, Hai; Yang, Xin-She; Tsompanas, Michail-Antisthenis I.; Sirakoulis, Georgios Ch.; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2015-01-01

A network design problem is to select a subset of links in a transport network that satisfy passengers or cargo transportation demands while minimizing the overall costs of the transportation. We propose a mathematical model of the foraging behaviour of slime mould P. polycephalum to solve the network design problem and construct optimal transport networks. In our algorithm, a traffic flow between any two cities is estimated using a gravity model. The flow is imitated by the model of the slime mould. The algorithm model converges to a steady state, which represents a solution of the problem. We validate our approach on examples of major transport networks in Mexico and China. By comparing networks developed in our approach with the man-made highways, networks developed by the slime mould, and a cellular automata model inspired by slime mould, we demonstrate the flexibility and efficiency of our approach. PMID:26041508

Model selection for anomaly detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burnaev, E.; Erofeev, P.; Smolyakov, D.

2015-12-01

Anomaly detection based on one-class classification algorithms is broadly used in many applied domains like image processing (e.g. detection of whether a patient is "cancerous" or "healthy" from mammography image), network intrusion detection, etc. Performance of an anomaly detection algorithm crucially depends on a kernel, used to measure similarity in a feature space. The standard approaches (e.g. cross-validation) for kernel selection, used in two-class classification problems, can not be used directly due to the specific nature of a data (absence of a second, abnormal, class data). In this paper we generalize several kernel selection methods from binary-class case to the case of one-class classification and perform extensive comparison of these approaches using both synthetic and real-world data.

Revealing the selection history of adaptive loci using genome-wide scans for selection: an example from domestic sheep.

PubMed

Rochus, Christina Marie; Tortereau, Flavie; Plisson-Petit, Florence; Restoux, Gwendal; Moreno-Romieux, Carole; Tosser-Klopp, Gwenola; Servin, Bertrand

2018-01-23

One of the approaches to detect genetics variants affecting fitness traits is to identify their surrounding genomic signatures of past selection. With established methods for detecting selection signatures and the current and future availability of large datasets, such studies should have the power to not only detect these signatures but also to infer their selective histories. Domesticated animals offer a powerful model for these approaches as they adapted rapidly to environmental and human-mediated constraints in a relatively short time. We investigated this question by studying a large dataset of 542 individuals from 27 domestic sheep populations raised in France, genotyped for more than 500,000 SNPs. Population structure analysis revealed that this set of populations harbour a large part of European sheep diversity in a small geographical area, offering a powerful model for the study of adaptation. Identification of extreme SNP and haplotype frequency differences between populations listed 126 genomic regions likely affected by selection. These signatures revealed selection at loci commonly identified as selection targets in many species ("selection hotspots") including ABCG2, LCORL/NCAPG, MSTN, and coat colour genes such as ASIP, MC1R, MITF, and TYRP1. For one of these regions (ABCG2, LCORL/NCAPG), we could propose a historical scenario leading to the introgression of an adaptive allele into a new genetic background. Among selection signatures, we found clear evidence for parallel selection events in different genetic backgrounds, most likely for different mutations. We confirmed this allelic heterogeneity in one case by resequencing the MC1R gene in three black-faced breeds. Our study illustrates how dense genetic data in multiple populations allows the deciphering of evolutionary history of populations and of their adaptive mutations.

Biased Competition in Visual Processing Hierarchies: A Learning Approach Using Multiple Cues.

PubMed

Gepperth, Alexander R T; Rebhan, Sven; Hasler, Stephan; Fritsch, Jannik

2011-03-01

In this contribution, we present a large-scale hierarchical system for object detection fusing bottom-up (signal-driven) processing results with top-down (model or task-driven) attentional modulation. Specifically, we focus on the question of how the autonomous learning of invariant models can be embedded into a performing system and how such models can be used to define object-specific attentional modulation signals. Our system implements bi-directional data flow in a processing hierarchy. The bottom-up data flow proceeds from a preprocessing level to the hypothesis level where object hypotheses created by exhaustive object detection algorithms are represented in a roughly retinotopic way. A competitive selection mechanism is used to determine the most confident hypotheses, which are used on the system level to train multimodal models that link object identity to invariant hypothesis properties. The top-down data flow originates at the system level, where the trained multimodal models are used to obtain space- and feature-based attentional modulation signals, providing biases for the competitive selection process at the hypothesis level. This results in object-specific hypothesis facilitation/suppression in certain image regions which we show to be applicable to different object detection mechanisms. In order to demonstrate the benefits of this approach, we apply the system to the detection of cars in a variety of challenging traffic videos. Evaluating our approach on a publicly available dataset containing approximately 3,500 annotated video images from more than 1 h of driving, we can show strong increases in performance and generalization when compared to object detection in isolation. Furthermore, we compare our results to a late hypothesis rejection approach, showing that early coupling of top-down and bottom-up information is a favorable approach especially when processing resources are constrained.

Influenza virus drug resistance: a time-sampled population genetics perspective.

PubMed

Foll, Matthieu; Poh, Yu-Ping; Renzette, Nicholas; Ferrer-Admetlla, Anna; Bank, Claudia; Shim, Hyunjin; Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Ewing, Gregory; Liu, Ping; Wegmann, Daniel; Caffrey, Daniel R; Zeldovich, Konstantin B; Bolon, Daniel N; Wang, Jennifer P; Kowalik, Timothy F; Schiffer, Celia A; Finberg, Robert W; Jensen, Jeffrey D

2014-02-01

The challenge of distinguishing genetic drift from selection remains a central focus of population genetics. Time-sampled data may provide a powerful tool for distinguishing these processes, and we here propose approximate Bayesian, maximum likelihood, and analytical methods for the inference of demography and selection from time course data. Utilizing these novel statistical and computational tools, we evaluate whole-genome datasets of an influenza A H1N1 strain in the presence and absence of oseltamivir (an inhibitor of neuraminidase) collected at thirteen time points. Results reveal a striking consistency amongst the three estimation procedures developed, showing strongly increased selection pressure in the presence of drug treatment. Importantly, these approaches re-identify the known oseltamivir resistance site, successfully validating the approaches used. Enticingly, a number of previously unknown variants have also been identified as being positively selected. Results are interpreted in the light of Fisher's Geometric Model, allowing for a quantification of the increased distance to optimum exerted by the presence of drug, and theoretical predictions regarding the distribution of beneficial fitness effects of contending mutations are empirically tested. Further, given the fit to expectations of the Geometric Model, results suggest the ability to predict certain aspects of viral evolution in response to changing host environments and novel selective pressures.

Temporal variation and scale in movement-based resource selection functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, M.B.; Hanks, E.M.; Johnson, D.S.; Alldredge, M.W.

2013-01-01

A common population characteristic of interest in animal ecology studies pertains to the selection of resources. That is, given the resources available to animals, what do they ultimately choose to use? A variety of statistical approaches have been employed to examine this question and each has advantages and disadvantages with respect to the form of available data and the properties of estimators given model assumptions. A wealth of high resolution telemetry data are now being collected to study animal population movement and space use and these data present both challenges and opportunities for statistical inference. We summarize traditional methods for resource selection and then describe several extensions to deal with measurement uncertainty and an explicit movement process that exists in studies involving high-resolution telemetry data. Our approach uses a correlated random walk movement model to obtain temporally varying use and availability distributions that are employed in a weighted distribution context to estimate selection coefficients. The temporally varying coefficients are then weighted by their contribution to selection and combined to provide inference at the population level. The result is an intuitive and accessible statistical procedure that uses readily available software and is computationally feasible for large datasets. These methods are demonstrated using data collected as part of a large-scale mountain lion monitoring study in Colorado, USA.

When everything is not everywhere but species evolve: an alternative method to model adaptive properties of marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Sauterey, Boris; Ward, Ben A; Follows, Michael J; Bowler, Chris; Claessen, David

2015-01-01

The functional and taxonomic biogeography of marine microbial systems reflects the current state of an evolving system. Current models of marine microbial systems and biogeochemical cycles do not reflect this fundamental organizing principle. Here, we investigate the evolutionary adaptive potential of marine microbial systems under environmental change and introduce explicit Darwinian adaptation into an ocean modelling framework, simulating evolving phytoplankton communities in space and time. To this end, we adopt tools from adaptive dynamics theory, evaluating the fitness of invading mutants over annual timescales, replacing the resident if a fitter mutant arises. Using the evolutionary framework, we examine how community assembly, specifically the emergence of phytoplankton cell size diversity, reflects the combined effects of bottom-up and top-down controls. When compared with a species-selection approach, based on the paradigm that "Everything is everywhere, but the environment selects", we show that (i) the selected optimal trait values are similar; (ii) the patterns emerging from the adaptive model are more robust, but (iii) the two methods lead to different predictions in terms of emergent diversity. We demonstrate that explicitly evolutionary approaches to modelling marine microbial populations and functionality are feasible and practical in time-varying, space-resolving settings and provide a new tool for exploring evolutionary interactions on a range of timescales in the ocean.

SVM Based Descriptor Selection and Classification of Neurodegenerative Disease Drugs for Pharmacological Modeling.

PubMed

Shahid, Mohammad; Shahzad Cheema, Muhammad; Klenner, Alexander; Younesi, Erfan; Hofmann-Apitius, Martin

2013-03-01

Systems pharmacological modeling of drug mode of action for the next generation of multitarget drugs may open new routes for drug design and discovery. Computational methods are widely used in this context amongst which support vector machines (SVM) have proven successful in addressing the challenge of classifying drugs with similar features. We have applied a variety of such SVM-based approaches, namely SVM-based recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE). We use the approach to predict the pharmacological properties of drugs widely used against complex neurodegenerative disorders (NDD) and to build an in-silico computational model for the binary classification of NDD drugs from other drugs. Application of an SVM-RFE model to a set of drugs successfully classified NDD drugs from non-NDD drugs and resulted in overall accuracy of ∼80 % with 10 fold cross validation using 40 top ranked molecular descriptors selected out of total 314 descriptors. Moreover, SVM-RFE method outperformed linear discriminant analysis (LDA) based feature selection and classification. The model reduced the multidimensional descriptors space of drugs dramatically and predicted NDD drugs with high accuracy, while avoiding over fitting. Based on these results, NDD-specific focused libraries of drug-like compounds can be designed and existing NDD-specific drugs can be characterized by a well-characterized set of molecular descriptors. Copyright © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Estimating the spatial scales of landscape effects on abundance

Treesearch

Richard Chandler; Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman

2016-01-01

Spatial variation in abundance is influenced by local- and landscape-level environmental variables, but modeling landscape effects is challenging because the spatial scales of the relationships are unknown. Current approaches involve buffering survey locations with polygons of various sizes and using model selection to identify the best scale. The buffering...

Process Relationships for Evaluating the Role of Light-induced Inactivation of Enterococci at Selected Beaches and Nearby Tributaries of the Great Lakes

EPA Science Inventory

One approach to predictive modeling of biological contamination of recreational waters and drinking water sources involves applying process-based models that consider microbial sources, hydrodynamic transport, and microbial fate. Fecal indicator bacteria such as enterococci have ...

Precision Efficacy Analysis for Regression.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brooks, Gordon P.

When multiple linear regression is used to develop a prediction model, sample size must be large enough to ensure stable coefficients. If the derivation sample size is inadequate, the model may not predict well for future subjects. The precision efficacy analysis for regression (PEAR) method uses a cross- validity approach to select sample sizes…

Methodological Gravitism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zaman, Muhammad

2011-01-01

In this paper the author presents the case of the exchange marriage system to delineate a model of methodological gravitism. Such a model is not a deviation from or alteration to the existing qualitative research approaches. I have adopted culturally specific methodology to investigate spouse selection in line with the Grounded Theory Method. This…

Developmental Education in Arkansas: Practices, Costs, and a Model Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carroll, Rhonda; Kersh, Lily; Sullivan, Ellen; Fincher, Mark

2012-01-01

This paper examines the origins of developmental education and explores the way developmental education is administered at selected colleges in Arkansas. Finally, the paper focuses on a model Career Pathways Initiative program at University of Arkansas Community College-Morrilton. Career Pathways invigorates partnerships between colleges and…

Terrain modeling for real-time simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devarajan, Venkat; McArthur, Donald E.

1993-10-01

There are many applications, such as pilot training, mission rehearsal, and hardware-in-the- loop simulation, which require the generation of realistic images of terrain and man-made objects in real-time. One approach to meeting this requirement is to drape photo-texture over a planar polygon model of the terrain. The real time system then computes, for each pixel of the output image, the address in a texture map based on the intersection of the line-of-sight vector with the terrain model. High quality image generation requires that the terrain be modeled with a fine mesh of polygons while hardware costs limit the number of polygons which may be displayed for each scene. The trade-off between these conflicting requirements must be made in real-time because it depends on the changing position and orientation of the pilot's eye point or simulated sensor. The traditional approach is to develop a data base consisting of multiple levels of detail (LOD), and then selecting for display LODs as a function of range. This approach could lead to both anomalies in the displayed scene and inefficient use of resources. An approach has been developed in which the terrain is modeled with a set of nested polygons and organized as a tree with each node corresponding to a polygon. This tree is pruned to select the optimum set of nodes for each eye-point position. As the point of view moves, the visibility of some nodes drops below the limit of perception and may be deleted while new points must be added in regions near the eye point. An analytical model has been developed to determine the number of polygons required for display. This model leads to quantitative performance measures of the triangulation algorithm which is useful for optimizing system performance with a limited display capability.

The long-term evolution of multilocus traits under frequency-dependent disruptive selection.

PubMed

van Doorn, G Sander; Dieckmann, Ulf

2006-11-01

Frequency-dependent disruptive selection is widely recognized as an important source of genetic variation. Its evolutionary consequences have been extensively studied using phenotypic evolutionary models, based on quantitative genetics, game theory, or adaptive dynamics. However, the genetic assumptions underlying these approaches are highly idealized and, even worse, predict different consequences of frequency-dependent disruptive selection. Population genetic models, by contrast, enable genotypic evolutionary models, but traditionally assume constant fitness values. Only a minority of these models thus addresses frequency-dependent selection, and only a few of these do so in a multilocus context. An inherent limitation of these remaining studies is that they only investigate the short-term maintenance of genetic variation. Consequently, the long-term evolution of multilocus characters under frequency-dependent disruptive selection remains poorly understood. We aim to bridge this gap between phenotypic and genotypic models by studying a multilocus version of Levene's soft-selection model. Individual-based simulations and deterministic approximations based on adaptive dynamics theory provide insights into the underlying evolutionary dynamics. Our analysis uncovers a general pattern of polymorphism formation and collapse, likely to apply to a wide variety of genetic systems: after convergence to a fitness minimum and the subsequent establishment of genetic polymorphism at multiple loci, genetic variation becomes increasingly concentrated on a few loci, until eventually only a single polymorphic locus remains. This evolutionary process combines features observed in quantitative genetics and adaptive dynamics models, and it can be explained as a consequence of changes in the selection regime that are inherent to frequency-dependent disruptive selection. Our findings demonstrate that the potential of frequency-dependent disruptive selection to maintain polygenic variation is considerably smaller than previously expected.

Relevance popularity: A term event model based feature selection scheme for text classification.

PubMed

Feng, Guozhong; An, Baiguo; Yang, Fengqin; Wang, Han; Zhang, Libiao

2017-01-01

Feature selection is a practical approach for improving the performance of text classification methods by optimizing the feature subsets input to classifiers. In traditional feature selection methods such as information gain and chi-square, the number of documents that contain a particular term (i.e. the document frequency) is often used. However, the frequency of a given term appearing in each document has not been fully investigated, even though it is a promising feature to produce accurate classifications. In this paper, we propose a new feature selection scheme based on a term event Multinomial naive Bayes probabilistic model. According to the model assumptions, the matching score function, which is based on the prediction probability ratio, can be factorized. Finally, we derive a feature selection measurement for each term after replacing inner parameters by their estimators. On a benchmark English text datasets (20 Newsgroups) and a Chinese text dataset (MPH-20), our numerical experiment results obtained from using two widely used text classifiers (naive Bayes and support vector machine) demonstrate that our method outperformed the representative feature selection methods.

Rank-based methods for modeling dependence between loss triangles.

PubMed

Côté, Marie-Pier; Genest, Christian; Abdallah, Anas

2016-01-01

In order to determine the risk capital for their aggregate portfolio, property and casualty insurance companies must fit a multivariate model to the loss triangle data relating to each of their lines of business. As an inadequate choice of dependence structure may have an undesirable effect on reserve estimation, a two-stage inference strategy is proposed in this paper to assist with model selection and validation. Generalized linear models are first fitted to the margins. Standardized residuals from these models are then linked through a copula selected and validated using rank-based methods. The approach is illustrated with data from six lines of business of a large Canadian insurance company for which two hierarchical dependence models are considered, i.e., a fully nested Archimedean copula structure and a copula-based risk aggregation model.

Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology.

PubMed

Fox, Eric W; Hill, Ryan A; Leibowitz, Scott G; Olsen, Anthony R; Thornbrugh, Darren J; Weber, Marc H

2017-07-01

Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological data sets, there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, either a preselected set of predictor variables are used or stepwise procedures are employed which iteratively remove variables according to their importance measures. This paper investigates the application of variable selection methods to RF models for predicting probable biological stream condition. Our motivating data set consists of the good/poor condition of n = 1365 stream survey sites from the 2008/2009 National Rivers and Stream Assessment, and a large set (p = 212) of landscape features from the StreamCat data set as potential predictors. We compare two types of RF models: a full variable set model with all 212 predictors and a reduced variable set model selected using a backward elimination approach. We assess model accuracy using RF's internal out-of-bag estimate, and a cross-validation procedure with validation folds external to the variable selection process. We also assess the stability of the spatial predictions generated by the RF models to changes in the number of predictors and argue that model selection needs to consider both accuracy and stability. The results suggest that RF modeling is robust to the inclusion of many variables of moderate to low importance. We found no substantial improvement in cross-validated accuracy as a result of variable reduction. Moreover, the backward elimination procedure tended to select too few variables and exhibited numerous issues such as upwardly biased out-of-bag accuracy estimates and instabilities in the spatial predictions. We use simulations to further support and generalize results from the analysis of real data. A main purpose of this work is to elucidate issues of model selection bias and instability to ecologists interested in using RF to develop predictive models with large environmental data sets.

Firefly as a novel swarm intelligence variable selection method in spectroscopy.

PubMed

Goodarzi, Mohammad; dos Santos Coelho, Leandro

2014-12-10

A critical step in multivariate calibration is wavelength selection, which is used to build models with better prediction performance when applied to spectral data. Up to now, many feature selection techniques have been developed. Among all different types of feature selection techniques, those based on swarm intelligence optimization methodologies are more interesting since they are usually simulated based on animal and insect life behavior to, e.g., find the shortest path between a food source and their nests. This decision is made by a crowd, leading to a more robust model with less falling in local minima during the optimization cycle. This paper represents a novel feature selection approach to the selection of spectroscopic data, leading to more robust calibration models. The performance of the firefly algorithm, a swarm intelligence paradigm, was evaluated and compared with genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization. All three techniques were coupled with partial least squares (PLS) and applied to three spectroscopic data sets. They demonstrate improved prediction results in comparison to when only a PLS model was built using all wavelengths. Results show that firefly algorithm as a novel swarm paradigm leads to a lower number of selected wavelengths while the prediction performance of built PLS stays the same. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Application of QSAR and shape pharmacophore modeling approaches for targeted chemical library design.

PubMed

Ebalunode, Jerry O; Zheng, Weifan; Tropsha, Alexander

2011-01-01

Optimization of chemical library composition affords more efficient identification of hits from biological screening experiments. The optimization could be achieved through rational selection of reagents used in combinatorial library synthesis. However, with a rapid advent of parallel synthesis methods and availability of millions of compounds synthesized by many vendors, it may be more efficient to design targeted libraries by means of virtual screening of commercial compound collections. This chapter reviews the application of advanced cheminformatics approaches such as quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) and pharmacophore modeling (both ligand and structure based) for virtual screening. Both approaches rely on empirical SAR data to build models; thus, the emphasis is placed on achieving models of the highest rigor and external predictive power. We present several examples of successful applications of both approaches for virtual screening to illustrate their utility. We suggest that the expert use of both QSAR and pharmacophore models, either independently or in combination, enables users to achieve targeted libraries enriched with experimentally confirmed hit compounds.

Establishing Approaches to Modeling the Ares I-X and Ares I Roll Control System with Free-stream Interaction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pao, S. Paul; Deere, Karen A.; Abdol-Hamid, Khales S.

2011-01-01

Approaches were established for modeling the roll control system and analyzing the jet interactions of the activated roll control system on Ares-type configurations using the USM3D Navier-Stokes solver. Components of the modeling approach for the roll control system include a choice of turbulence models, basis for computing a dynamic equivalence of the real gas rocket exhaust flow in terms of an ideal gas, and techniques to evaluate roll control system performance for wind tunnel and flight conditions. A simplified Ares I-X configuration was used during the development phase of the roll control system modeling approach. A limited set of Navier-Stokes solutions was obtained for the purposes of this investigation and highlights of the results are included in this paper. The USM3D solutions were compared to equivalent solutions at select flow conditions from a real gas Navier- Stokes solver (Loci-CHEM) and a structured overset grid Navier-Stokes solver (OVERFLOW).

Spatial enhancement of ECG using diagnostic similarity score based lead selective multi-scale linear model.

PubMed

Nallikuzhy, Jiss J; Dandapat, S

2017-06-01

In this work, a new patient-specific approach to enhance the spatial resolution of ECG is proposed and evaluated. The proposed model transforms a three-lead ECG into a standard twelve-lead ECG thereby enhancing its spatial resolution. The three leads used for prediction are obtained from the standard twelve-lead ECG. The proposed model takes advantage of the improved inter-lead correlation in wavelet domain. Since the model is patient-specific, it also selects the optimal predictor leads for a given patient using a lead selection algorithm. The lead selection algorithm is based on a new diagnostic similarity score which computes the diagnostic closeness between the original and the spatially enhanced leads. Standard closeness measures are used to assess the performance of the model. The similarity in diagnostic information between the original and the spatially enhanced leads are evaluated using various diagnostic measures. Repeatability and diagnosability are performed to quantify the applicability of the model. A comparison of the proposed model is performed with existing models that transform a subset of standard twelve-lead ECG into the standard twelve-lead ECG. From the analysis of the results, it is evident that the proposed model preserves diagnostic information better compared to other models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fostering Peace: A Comparison of Conflict Resolution Approaches for Students (K-12).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iowa Peace Inst., Grinnell.

This compilation of 12 conflict resolution models is an attempt to provide a comparable overview of approaches that teach conflict management and peacemaking skills to K-12 students, teachers, counselors, and administrators. They have been selected for inclusion because they have been used in many schools around the United States. Each is…

Review and Assessment of Personnel Competencies and Job Description Models and Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

Specifically, the Department of Defense (DoD) defines a competency as “an (observable) measurable pattern of knowledge, abili- ties, skills, and...analyzed how several organizations—selected to represent a breadth of approaches and contexts—use the different forms of competency systems and job...2 B. Employing Competencies....................................................................................3 2. Method and Approach

A self-cognizant dynamic system approach for prognostics and health management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Guangxing; Wang, Pingfeng; Hu, Chao

2015-03-01

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an emerging engineering discipline that diagnoses and predicts how and when a system will degrade its performance and lose its partial or whole functionality. Due to the complexity and invisibility of rules and states of most dynamic systems, developing an effective approach to track evolving system states becomes a major challenge. This paper presents a new self-cognizant dynamic system (SCDS) approach that incorporates artificial intelligence into dynamic system modeling for PHM. A feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is selected to approximate a complex system response which is challenging task in general due to inaccessible system physics. The trained FFNN model is then embedded into a dual extended Kalman filter algorithm to track down system dynamics. A recursive computation technique used to update the FFNN model using online measurements is also derived. To validate the proposed SCDS approach, a battery dynamic system is considered as an experimental application. After modeling the battery system by a FFNN model and a state-space model, the state-of-charge (SoC) and state-of-health (SoH) are estimated by updating the FFNN model using the proposed approach. Experimental results suggest that the proposed approach improves the efficiency and accuracy for battery health management.

A novel variable selection approach that iteratively optimizes variable space using weighted binary matrix sampling.

PubMed

Deng, Bai-chuan; Yun, Yong-huan; Liang, Yi-zeng; Yi, Lun-zhao

2014-10-07

In this study, a new optimization algorithm called the Variable Iterative Space Shrinkage Approach (VISSA) that is based on the idea of model population analysis (MPA) is proposed for variable selection. Unlike most of the existing optimization methods for variable selection, VISSA statistically evaluates the performance of variable space in each step of optimization. Weighted binary matrix sampling (WBMS) is proposed to generate sub-models that span the variable subspace. Two rules are highlighted during the optimization procedure. First, the variable space shrinks in each step. Second, the new variable space outperforms the previous one. The second rule, which is rarely satisfied in most of the existing methods, is the core of the VISSA strategy. Compared with some promising variable selection methods such as competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS), Monte Carlo uninformative variable elimination (MCUVE) and iteratively retaining informative variables (IRIV), VISSA showed better prediction ability for the calibration of NIR data. In addition, VISSA is user-friendly; only a few insensitive parameters are needed, and the program terminates automatically without any additional conditions. The Matlab codes for implementing VISSA are freely available on the website: https://sourceforge.net/projects/multivariateanalysis/files/VISSA/.

Key issues in decomposing fMRI during naturalistic and continuous music experience with independent component analysis.

PubMed

Cong, Fengyu; Puoliväli, Tuomas; Alluri, Vinoo; Sipola, Tuomo; Burunat, Iballa; Toiviainen, Petri; Nandi, Asoke K; Brattico, Elvira; Ristaniemi, Tapani

2014-02-15

Independent component analysis (ICA) has been often used to decompose fMRI data mostly for the resting-state, block and event-related designs due to its outstanding advantage. For fMRI data during free-listening experiences, only a few exploratory studies applied ICA. For processing the fMRI data elicited by 512-s modern tango, a FFT based band-pass filter was used to further pre-process the fMRI data to remove sources of no interest and noise. Then, a fast model order selection method was applied to estimate the number of sources. Next, both individual ICA and group ICA were performed. Subsequently, ICA components whose temporal courses were significantly correlated with musical features were selected. Finally, for individual ICA, common components across majority of participants were found by diffusion map and spectral clustering. The extracted spatial maps (by the new ICA approach) common across most participants evidenced slightly right-lateralized activity within and surrounding the auditory cortices. Meanwhile, they were found associated with the musical features. Compared with the conventional ICA approach, more participants were found to have the common spatial maps extracted by the new ICA approach. Conventional model order selection methods underestimated the true number of sources in the conventionally pre-processed fMRI data for the individual ICA. Pre-processing the fMRI data by using a reasonable band-pass digital filter can greatly benefit the following model order selection and ICA with fMRI data by naturalistic paradigms. Diffusion map and spectral clustering are straightforward tools to find common ICA spatial maps. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An efficient route to selective bio-oxidation catalysts: an iterative approach comprising modeling, diversification, and screening, based on CYP102A1.

PubMed

Seifert, Alexander; Antonovici, Mihaela; Hauer, Bernhard; Pleiss, Jürgen

2011-06-14

Perillyl alcohol is the terminal hydroxylation product of the cheap and readily available terpene, limonene. It has high potential as an anti-tumor substance, but is of limited availability. In principle, cytochrome P450 monooxygenases, such as the self-sufficient CYP102A1, are promising catalysts for the oxidation of limonene or other inert hydrocarbons. The wild-type enzyme converts (4R)-limonene to four different oxidation products; however, terminal hydroxylation at the allylic C7 is not observed. Here we describe a generic strategy to engineer this widely used enzyme to hydroxylate exclusively the exposed, but chemically less reactive, primary C7 in the presence of other reactive positions. The approach presented here turns CYP102A1 into a highly selective catalyst with a shifted product spectra by successive rounds of modeling, the design of small focused libraries, and screening. In the first round a minimal CYP102A1 mutant library was rationally designed. It contained variants with improved or strongly shifted regio-, stereo- and chemoselectivity, compared to wild-type. From this library the variant with the highest perillyl alcohol ratio was fine-tuned by two additional rounds of molecular modeling, diversification, and screening. In total only 29 variants needed to be screened to identify the triple mutant A264V/A238V/L437F that converts (4R)-limonene to perillyl alcohol with a selectivity of 97 %. Focusing mutagenesis on a small number of relevant positions identified by computational approaches is the key for efficient screening for enzyme selectivity. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Burglar Target Selection

PubMed Central

Townsley, Michael; Bernasco, Wim; Ruiter, Stijn; Johnson, Shane D.; White, Gentry; Baum, Scott

2015-01-01

Objectives: This study builds on research undertaken by Bernasco and Nieuwbeerta and explores the generalizability of a theoretically derived offender target selection model in three cross-national study regions. Methods: Taking a discrete spatial choice approach, we estimate the impact of both environment- and offender-level factors on residential burglary placement in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Australia. Combining cleared burglary data from all study regions in a single statistical model, we make statistical comparisons between environments. Results: In all three study regions, the likelihood an offender selects an area for burglary is positively influenced by proximity to their home, the proportion of easily accessible targets, and the total number of targets available. Furthermore, in two of the three study regions, juvenile offenders under the legal driving age are significantly more influenced by target proximity than adult offenders. Post hoc tests indicate the magnitudes of these impacts vary significantly between study regions. Conclusions: While burglary target selection strategies are consistent with opportunity-based explanations of offending, the impact of environmental context is significant. As such, the approach undertaken in combining observations from multiple study regions may aid criminology scholars in assessing the generalizability of observed findings across multiple environments. PMID:25866418

Impact of Genomics Platform and Statistical Filtering on Transcriptional Benchmark Doses (BMD) and Multiple Approaches for Selection of Chemical Point of Departure (PoD)

PubMed Central

Webster, A. Francina; Chepelev, Nikolai; Gagné, Rémi; Kuo, Byron; Recio, Leslie; Williams, Andrew; Yauk, Carole L.

2015-01-01

Many regulatory agencies are exploring ways to integrate toxicogenomic data into their chemical risk assessments. The major challenge lies in determining how to distill the complex data produced by high-content, multi-dose gene expression studies into quantitative information. It has been proposed that benchmark dose (BMD) values derived from toxicogenomics data be used as point of departure (PoD) values in chemical risk assessments. However, there is limited information regarding which genomics platforms are most suitable and how to select appropriate PoD values. In this study, we compared BMD values modeled from RNA sequencing-, microarray-, and qPCR-derived gene expression data from a single study, and explored multiple approaches for selecting a single PoD from these data. The strategies evaluated include several that do not require prior mechanistic knowledge of the compound for selection of the PoD, thus providing approaches for assessing data-poor chemicals. We used RNA extracted from the livers of female mice exposed to non-carcinogenic (0, 2 mg/kg/day, mkd) and carcinogenic (4, 8 mkd) doses of furan for 21 days. We show that transcriptional BMD values were consistent across technologies and highly predictive of the two-year cancer bioassay-based PoD. We also demonstrate that filtering data based on statistically significant changes in gene expression prior to BMD modeling creates more conservative BMD values. Taken together, this case study on mice exposed to furan demonstrates that high-content toxicogenomics studies produce robust data for BMD modelling that are minimally affected by inter-technology variability and highly predictive of cancer-based PoD doses. PMID:26313361